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MARKET CLOSE: The Show MUST Go On | $SPY $QQQ $USO $GOOGL $META $MSFT $OWL $KKR $SOFI $VCX $DXYZ
Recorded: March 26, 2026 Duration: 0:24:22Space Recording
Full Transcription
all right all right the show must go on here we go it is a market close, and I think we are in correction territory for the Qs.
Portfolio is definitely hurting.
I'm probably not the only one out there.
We have SPY down here about 1.65%.
We have the Qs down about 2.21%.
We have IWN giving back some of those gains, only down 1.64%, which is pretty interesting
because you would have expected the small pass to be hit a little bit harder but that's showing a little
bit of outperformance here rsp is down 90 basis points xle is up 1.6 oil is definitely riding up
a little bit over here interesting to see how the markets are going to close today being that today
is probably another bad day in the market and we'll see if we're going to be in correction territory by the end of the week but we are definitely in correction territory at least
i think we are in correction territory on the queues so we have uh quite a bit of uh things
to talk about today obviously you have the entire crew going over to la but the show guys must always
go on got a little surprise for you at 4 o'clock p.m.
But definitely, definitely, if you are in the L.A., Southern California region,
hit up on it or sign up for the event.
We're all going to be there on Saturday and maybe do a little something during the weekend.
But definitely go to that link that Ahmed is having for the meetup.
Everyone check that out.
We have a great show for you today.
Definitely not a great day for the portfolio and for a lot of people,
but we're going to be talking about more than a few things.
Actually, those are not the notes that I had.
Try to look over here.
So anyways, we had Trump basically come on this morning saying that Iran is begging for a deal.
It doesn't really look like the market kind of bleeps him in that scenario.
We also have MAG7 getting cheaper.
Meta is down about 8% today after we heard the verdict of their case.
While the verdict only called for $375 million, which is not really only $375 million,
but the market is not digesting that as well.
We also have a credit event scare.
I want to play a clip with you from someone who's a credit investor on CNBC.
He manages about $22 billion.
We're going to see what he has to say about the credit market.
Certainly, they're scared of the market right now.
It's oil, but I think there might be something looming under the cracks.
I'm not saying it's going to turn into anything, but it's definitely bringing a little bit of scare to the credit spreads as they are widening in the private markets. We also are going to talk about
some parabolic stocks lately and some of them giving back a lot of those gains. That is VCX,
the fund rise that has been up about 1,200% since it just opened earlier this week. Now,
I think it's got about 40%. So we will take a look at that one. Also,
DXYZ, which is about 20%, SpaceX is giving up some of those gains today. So everyone be careful
of these kind of things. Don't try to chase all the noise. Obviously, there is narrowed leadership
in the market today. Not everything is down. But sometimes during these times, you see certain
companies or you see certain tickers go parabolic because everyone is
just trying to reap that game while everything else is falling off a cliff. So let's go ahead
and get started on this show. Oh my goodness. Every single time I'm not bringing up the mic,
I got my microphone over here and I had it like all the way over there for a while. And I just
noticed this because I just brought up the chat right now. I apologize everybody. I could never get these things. Seriously. I can never get these things correctly
when the show starts. Someone said that I'm laughing when the market's falling. Yeah. You
know what? You got to look for a little bit of comedy when these scenarios happen is losing money
certainly is not a fun scenario. And there you got to kind of let things slide a little bit,
a little bit of the stress off the shoulders. And I'm always an advocate. You just got to laugh things off sometimes, even though obviously under the
hood, the pain really sucks, but it is what it is. This is just one of the factors of a bull market.
You're going to have to experience some drawdowns. You cannot participate in a bull market if you
don't know how to experience drawdowns. So everyone is probably going to be holding some
hands here today. I'll be holding everyone's hand. It's at the market close. Hopefully we don't get any more blood for the rest of the week,
but we do usually see that Wednesday kind of top out for the entire week
and then draw down into Thursday and Friday.
Let's see if we're going to follow that same pattern coming into tomorrow,
but let's get on with the show.
I have a clip that I want to play for you guys,
but first I do want to share this one because Amit did share this one with the
Twitter crowd this morning.
Of course, everyone heard the news that Trump is basically saying that Iran is begging for a deal.
And he basically said on Truth Social, the Iranian government are very difficult and quote unquote strange.
They are begging to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been a military, since they have been a military obliterated with zero chance of a
comeback and yet they publicly state that they are only looking at our proposal which is wrong.
They better get serious soon before it is too late because once that happens there is no turning back
and it won't be perfect. President DJT. Now I also have a clip over here from CNBC that basically talks about,
it's a clip from Trump earlier this morning,
giving his thoughts on what is happening.
Here that the market is necessarily believing him in this scenario.
Actually, is this the clip?
Yeah, this is the clip over here.
So let me go ahead and play this for you.
Witnessed, although you got a pretty good witnessing of it in Venezuela also.
That was a smaller version of what we're doing now.
We're crushing their missiles and drone stockpiles, destroying their defense industrial base.
We've wiped out their Navy completely, their air force completely. We've wiped out a large percentage of their missiles
and the missile launchers without the launchers you can't, the missiles don't do any good.
And we've knocked out probably close to 90% of the launchers, probably more than 90% of the
missiles themselves. Between some they fired and more than they fired, we knocked down.
We've also destroyed a lot of the factories.
We're continuing to do that, but a lot of the factories
where they manufacture the drones and the missiles.
The drones, too, are way down, but the reason they're down
is they go one way and they don't come back
because for the most part we're shooting
them down but we also are able to with we've really done tremendous damage to the places where
they make them and just so we set the record straight because i've been watching the wall
street journal's fake news and all these stories that get printed like oh i want to make a deal
they are begging to make a deal not me they're begging to make a deal and anybody that saw what I'M GOING TO TALK ABOUT THE COUNTRY. I'M GOING TO TALK ABOUT THE
COUNTRY.
THEY ARE BEGGING TO MAKE A
DEAL.
THEY ARE BEGGING TO MAKE A
DEAL.
ANYBODY THAT SAW WHAT WAS
HAPPENING OVER THERE WOULD
UNDERSTAND WHY THEY WANT TO MAKE
A DEAL.
BUT THEY SAY, OH, WE'RE NOT
TALKING TO THEM.
ANYBODY WOULD KNOW THAT.
ONLY A TOTAL FOOL.
THEY'RE NOT FOOLS. THEY'RE VERY SMART, ACTUALLY, IN A CERTAIN WAY. AND THEY'RE GREAT NEGOTIATORS. And they're great negotiators. I say they're lousy fighters, but they're great negotiators.
And they are begging to work out a deal.
I don't know if we'll be able to do that.
I don't know if we're willing to do that.
They should have done that four weeks ago.
They should have done it two years ago.
Or they should have done it when we first came into office, because two years ago, they
had free reign under Biden.
Sleepy Joe, worst president in the history of our country, when he allowed to happen to our country at the borders.
And even with a thing like this.
But not just him.
Every president for 47 years, every president should have done this.
They should have done it a long time ago because you cannot give lunatics a nuclear weapon.
And they would have had a big one.
It stopped really when we did the B2, but even before that, the Barack Hussein Obama,
what he did where he gave them the Iran nuclear deal, gave them free will toward a nuclear weapon.
Basically, he chose Iran over Israel and others that didn't want him to do it.
But I terminated that deal. Had I not terminated that deal, you would have had a nuclear weapon years ago and it would have been used, guaranteed. And one of the reasons you know about the
guarantee is because their neighbors were sort of like bystanders. They weren't involved very much.
They didn't choose heavy sides.
They didn't want to because people were concerned with Iran.
There was a big black cloud over the Middle East.
They were concerned, but all of a sudden, the world starts,
and they start shooting at these five,
in particular, five countries.
They start shooting at Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, KUWAIT, OMAN.
THEY START SHOOTING AT THEM.
EVERYBODY WAS SHOCKED, CLUDELY THOSE.
YOU KNOW WHY?
BECAUSE THEY'RE SICK.
AND THEY HAD A PLAN TO TAKE OVER THE MIDDLE EAST.
AND SOME OF THOSE MISSILES THAT WERE SHOT AT THEM WERE LOCKED
LONG BEFORE WE EVEN STARTED THIS PROCESS. THEY WERE LOCKED AND LOADED AND AIMED AT THOSE COUNTRIES. Some of those missiles that were shot at them were locked long before we even started this process.
They were locked and loaded and aimed at those countries.
They wanted to take over the Middle East, but we happened to come along.
So we have the war somewhat escalating here, even though we thought in the background that things are kind of de-escalating because it was a deal coming up.
that things are kind of de-escalating
because it was a deal coming up.
Now, I think what had originally happened with the market
as we saw the rally earlier this week
was of course, we saw a little bit of optimism
that there was a deal coming,
that we would see a deal coming as soon as this weekend
and the war would only last for a few more weeks.
But on the other side,
we saw Trump's narrative kind of change here.
Instead of saying that he's very sure
we're going to have a deal soon,
he starts to press that Iran is begging for a deal and that whatever they're saying,
the rebuttals that there is no deal and we're negotiating with ourselves is not true. So I
guess the market is somewhat not as optimistic that the war is going to end soon and that things
might actually last a little bit longer. but arguably oil is starting to rally a little
bit. I believe we are at about $95 a barrel here. Yeah, we're at about $95 a barrel and the market
kind of moves inversely to oil. If oil goes up, the market goes down and we start to see oil pull
back to about the $85 region. And now today we're at about four or 5% higher along with the four or
5% higher from yesterday.
So as we continue to see oil rally, it's kind of a center perspective as well as treasury
yields, as well as dollar.
It's all kind of the same trade here, right?
Oil goes up, dollar goes up, treasury yields go up, bonds go down.
And therefore the market goes down because there is that scare that the higher oil prices
will have a constraint on the economy. I've actually been looking on into this a little bit more and have
noticed that, of course, you're starting to see the fear take place. But arguably speaking, guys,
these mega caps have been breaking down for quite some time ever since February. This really reminds
me of last year when you had the deep seek moment, you had that major sell off. In fact, let me bring up this chart a little bit over here.
If we look at, let's just say Amazon, for example, which isn't really trading too great right now.
It's below all the moving averages over here. If we go back to February, you had the deep seek
moment, you had the major sell off over here. And you had, of course, I think DeepSeek was actually over here in the beginning of February.
And things kind of picked up a little bit, and then they just fell off a cliff.
This year, you did have tech sell-off a little bit.
And it was around the time when their earnings season happened.
And really, we haven't recovered necessarily from there.
Arguably, though, Microsoft has not even recovered at all.
If you look back here since
november microsoft has been selling pretty dramatically since then we did of course have
the nvidia earnings and we had like this chop fest going on here over here it looks like we're kind
of testing the lower end of the range if you look at google over here it's basically giving up most
of its gains into february and you saw the same thing for meta as well. And it was kind of a warning shot as it might actually see when the
markets kind of pull back way ahead before the indices pull back.
It's a little bit of a warning shot.
It's not like saying like, Hey, we need to go into all cash here and be prepared
for like a 20% bear market or so on.
It's kind of a de-leveraging event you see institutions do.
And this is the kind of thing that I kind of, that I look out for not necessarily to say like i need to be all in cash but kind of be ready like in
case we go down a little bit further that not to buy the dip in size way ahead of time because if
you thought the dip was in january we're sitting over here a lot lower than we were in november so
i would say be a little bit careful guys kind of be a little bit cautious i think it's always good
to have cash on the side just in case something like this happens
But certainly no bottom calling over here. So on top of that
We do have the mega caps getting a bit cheaper over here
We have meta down about eight percent a lot of this like I mentioned has a lot to do with the verdict that we received yesterday
But of course you do have a lot of the mega caps continue to sell off while
meta continues to be one of the weakest mega caps out of all of them it was netflix originally but
since we did hear the news that netflix was no longer going to be acquiring warner brothers
they're basically going to get two billion dollars doing absolutely nothing we saw netflix recover a
little bit in fact netflix is actually green on the day i believe i think netflix let me double check that it was green about an hour ago yeah netflix is up about one a half percent so maybe
things aren't that bad for all stocks and in fact i would even look at look at some of the sectors
here on sp500 you do have xlf which is mostly financials. Financials is not doing too well.
Arguably, financials is a good heartbeat on the economy.
I don't think we're going to be able to get all-time highs with the financials all the
way down here.
Of course, you do have tech, XLY, which is 20%, Tesla, 20%, Amazon down a lot today.
You have XLV Healthcare, which is teetering here on the 200-day moving average.
You have XLK, which is just falling off a cliff, making lower lows for the, for the year. You have staples down pretty decent, gave up all those
gains, but you do have XLE energy continuing to make new, is this all-time highs? Yeah. Energy
continues to make new all-time highs, which is just crazy here, man. XLK is down 3%. And then
of course you do have communications down a little bit here. XLU, which is also a defensive sector is pretty much flat on the day.
So it isn't screaming like completely let's sell everything.
Everything is risk off,
but it is showing that what had led the market up for the last three years is
now leading the market down.
So good things to stay cognizant of.
I would say that, you know, if you have a bucket,
if you have a list of things on your watch list that you do want to buy,
maybe it isn't a bad time to nibble, but probably in my experience,
it's not a good time to go all in thinking this is the bottom because what might appear to be the
bottom might actually just be a local loan. We hit new bottoms later on.
Just kind of wait off a little bit. If you only have very little cash left,
you have a lot of cash, might not be a bad time to start deploying some of that right now i did buy some dips earlier but uh kind
of holding off a little bit for now so we do have the mark close in five minutes i do want to play
this clip from cnbc just to kind of reiterate and just kind of give people a little bit of background
effect as far as what had happened with meta actually that's not a cmdc clip this is a this
is an article so let me just share this screen here we'll go over the cmdc article real quick
yeah so we have meta uh they basically got defeated in accord which is asking which is
adding to the recent woes for meta watershed event it was really only about 375 million dollars over
here but i don't think that this is really what's weighing down and meta dropping.
I think it's more of that CapEx scare that we've been getting, especially since meta did increase its CapEx forecast for this year, along with Amazon, Google.
I believe Microsoft was somewhat flat during the CapEx this year, but I think this is more of that scare happening.
But I think this is more of that scare happening.
You see more heightened CapEx toward the AI infrastructure build out.
And today we even got the news that Meta is increasing their Al Palozo data center investment
to $10 billion, which is about six fold to where it was before.
And what was once actually very bullish for a lot of these companies is actually not so
bullish today.
If we do look at how the data center stocks are performing today,
it's somewhat the opposite of what we've been seeing all of last week. If I go down here to,
actually, those aren't the data center stocks. Where is it? Yeah, we have over here, Nebius is
down about 8%. Iron is about 10%. Hutt is down 10 percent tarawolf is down 10 percent a lot of
these are down almost double digits today and basically cypher is giving back all the gains
it had earlier this week from signing that five i think it was a 50 50 500 megawatt deal or
something like that with a hyperscaler that they didn't really mention so it could have been like
a smaller hyperscaler or so on but the market just, I guess it just doesn't care about this news anymore. So it's something to really keep an
eye on. When Nebius was like at 130 bucks, there are people that are getting very bullshit at that
point. Steve and I are basically saying you can get a better price of Nebius. Now we're not at
130 bucks. So maybe if you're planning on deploying or nibbling on Nebius might not be such a bad
time for me, I already have my position built. So i'm not really going to add over here maybe if we go down here and test the 200 day moving average i
might add to it a little bit but i i would think that i i would just be a little bit patient here
if i was looking to add size onto this so if for me if i didn't have a position nebius maybe a
little nibble into position if someone here is like looking for starting a
position in something, I would say take the total amount you're planning on putting into that
position, divide it by five and just start DCAing into it every couple of weeks. So that way you
kind of get an average of what all of those buys in over time. And you don't really have to put
any guesswork as far as the bottom of some of these companies are going to be. But we do have
two minutes until the market close over here. I definitely do want to project that one.
If you guys are watching the last few times
that I've done the market close,
it's like 1.02 p.m.
Everyone in the audience is screaming like,
hey, the market's closed, the market's closed,
and I completely forget about it.
This time I'll be ready, right?
I will be ready this time.
I'm like literally looking at the countdown right now.
It is, okay, baby, I'm not looking at the countdown
over here.
I didn't put it on the chart.
Let me bring this one up over here.
Label.
Okay, countdown to last bar close.
And I got about 15 minutes, 15-minute candle over here.
All right, so let me just bring up the market close over here on SPY.
We got about 37 seconds until the market close and of course the show is going to keep
going after this probably going to go on maybe another hour after the market closes
see if there's any news because usually they'd love to release these news and headlines after
the market closes so uh people who have options can't really do anything until tomorrow i don't
know maybe it's a little bit of a scam manipulation who knows but i think it's like very sus seeing
this market behavior
um after trump makes these headline posts so maybe someone knows something maybe someone does it
uh someone always knows something so we got about nine seconds eight seconds until the market closes
we'll see how spy closes on the day it's closing at the low of day here which isn't a really good
thing to see all right so the market is closed over here. Let us do it. Back market is now closed.
That's all right, baby.
The show must go on.
All right.
So SPY closes down 1.78%.
Q's closed down minus 2.4% at the low of days which really is not a
good sign socks semiconductors are down almost five percent today which is a massive give back
from what we've seen and i believe that is this a new no we actually had lower lows on this earlier
this month so it isn't necessarily a new low for the year on actually we were actually
much lower when we started the year on semiconductors so it is a little bit higher but
closing on the low day is not such a bullish seven comes to the stock market
igv was actually green in the day earlier but it did close down about one percent let's see where
there is some green here today netflix is up about one percent today which is good apple did close down flat but it was trying to squeeze out some gains here earlier today
did give all the whoa wow nvidia did just make newer lows for the year so that's not too good
aehr is down about eleven and a half percent what are some big names over here? Micron is down about 7%. I did talk yesterday exactly why the memory stocks are down.
Obviously cheap can always become cheaper.
So that's why when Micron had its earnings, they were trading at about, I think it was
four times price to earnings on a trillion basis or price to price earnings forward.
I forget the exact number, but now
they're cheaper. So just because a stock is cheap, it doesn't mean it can't get cheaper.
And I've said that time and time again, Sandisk is down 11% on the day, but look at where these
stocks are coming from, right? Sandisk started the year at 242. That's it's more than double that today, even after it pulled back, uh, about, uh, 20%
from its recent highs.
Micron is still up on the year.
I think it's still up about 20% on the year, which is pretty considerable.
Obviously, Sandisk was a lot stronger heading into the year, but this is the reason why
you see Sandisk down about 11% is because it went up so much. All right. But a lot of these other stocks, Intel is down about 7%.
LRCX, which is basically your basic materials or your machinery when it comes to semiconductors,
that's down about 10%. Arista networks is down about 10%. Oh, that's a nasty close below the
20 day, below the 200 day moving average over there. I already went over the data center stocks earlier.
Let's look at some of these small cap stocks.
ASDS is down about 10%.
Rocket Lab is down about 10%.
Oh, wow.
IOMQ made new, I think it made new 52-week lows, right?
Not new 52-week lows, but new lows on the year.
So nature is certainly healing there.
DigitalOcean is down about 1%. Software
has been pretty strong today. That was something that I noticed. Some of it was a little bit of a
give back. CloudFlare is down about 4% today, but it's been doing very good on the year.
Let's take a look at something real quick over here. I did want to get into this clip regarding
the credit event or the credit event that some people are warning is actually happening.
So I'm going to go ahead and share this screen and we can take a look at that one.
Next guest recently warned about contagion risk from stress in the private credit sector.
Joining us right now is opportunistic credit investor, Victor Kosta. He's the founder
and chief investment officer of Strategic Value Partners, which has $22 billion in assets
under management. And Victor, welcome. It's great to see you today.
Thank you. Thanks for having me.
We just introduced you as an opportunistic credit investor. What's the difference between
What's the difference between distressed debt and opportunistic credit investing?
distressed debt and opportunistic credit investing?
Opportunistic is so much broader.
So classic distressed debt is buying stuff at 50 cents, trading it, selling it at 70, 80 cents.
Right.
Opportunistic, the way we think about it is buying control of businesses,
sometimes through distressed, buying control of assets, fixing them, improving them.
It's just much more hands on, much broader in terms of what we do. But something has to look
like a value proposition to you. Yes. Usually means that it's under pressure. Yes. OK. We like
pressure. You like pressure. You must be happy right now. What are you seeing?
