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MARKET DROPPING YIELDS FLYING
Recorded: May 21, 2025 Duration: 0:14:54Space Recording
Short Summary
In today's market update, Bitcoin and Netflix both hit new all-time highs, reflecting strong growth trends. As traders await key earnings reports from Zoom and Snowflake, the VIX index indicates rising volatility, suggesting a cautious approach in the crypto market.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. What is up everyone? Good afternoon. Happy Wednesday, May the 21st.
Boy, interesting scenario we've got going on. Bonds absolutely flying through the roof.
Market reacting poorly to that. We had a 20-year auction right at 1 p.m. Eastern there
that kind of kicked this off.
It'll be interesting to get everyone's thoughts on what's going on here,
but bonds has been a subject on this space
that people have been on both sides of.
Is there a problem?
Is it ignore the problem?
And today the market is obviously taking it as something there's some
kind of warning light going off i don't know how serious it is that's what all the smart people in
the space will give us uh here in just a few moments as we kick off a little market update
around the board qqq down 1.18 percent spy much weaker today down 1.4. IWM's down 2.5. VIX is up 12%.
It's over 20 right now.
Some of your big names.
Google outperforming today, still up 3.33, holding on there.
Netflix, the only other tech name I have, basically a break even.
And several other things.
Red Apple, down 2.5.
There's several news stories around as well.
Evan, we're shooting you that co-host right now. And if you've got
anything you want to lead off with before we start jumping
into the panel.
Evan Brandoval- Yeah, not for me. Good to throw it around
bonds flying market down. Can I be honest with you? If I saw bonds
as the first thing on spaces, I was like, don't give a fuck.
Goodbye.
Markit cares, but hey,
I can be co-host. You can get creative
with whatever you want on that title.
Interesting.
You don't have much to say today.
I know, the Johnny Ive thing.
They also released a 10-minute video about it.
It sounds like Sam Altman saying
the first product they're going to do is going to be pretty crazy.
We'll see. I don't know.
Emp, I'll tell you what it's going to be. what I'm gonna say it's literally that entire conversation we had yesterday and that's where we're going
with this and Apple goes into wearables and catches up I don't know I thought it
was interesting the guy that basically came with this is gonna be my whole
strategy of the iPhone and now he's trying to create the strategy of the next iPhone to get people away from iPhone.
That was pretty interesting.
I don't know.
We'll see.
Options Mike.
What's up?
Quite a fun day here.
You know, I was lucky not to be done for the day when all this hell broke loose.
I'm happy.
It doesn't
always happen that way i grabbed that caboose yeah i grabbed that caboose with one hand today but
intraday traders i'm sure had some fun there's a little action on both sides today if you got on
the right side of it you know so this market wants to go higher it's pulled up and it really is you
know we you know every time we gap down we come running back up like today and then we had that 20-year auction the market did not
like that one little bit i didn't think it was that bad but the bond market dumped and then the
market dumped with it and you know kind of look around the market and the bond market right now
they're they're trading lock and step here today on this so you have to respect it and say okay
this is this is a problem for the market we We have had conversations on here The bonds are the one few things everybody keeps looking at saying something's not right
Yeah, something's not right. I'm not smart enough and hopefully some other guys here can talk about it more than me
To tell you what is the problem with bonds, but I know that you know rates are back up bonds are down and
The markets worried up bonds are down and the market's worried uh you know what was good today i mean i traded google
three times i had a nice day a very nice day with google that thing jumped out of the gate i jumped
on it because there was flow all over it and google was really nice i've been traded some core
weave here nvidia had a really nice move before all hell broke loose here. Amazon held the 200-day and bounced, and it's right back down just a little bit above it.
Netflix put a new all-time high in today.
Hood had another huge move trying to break out.
Bitcoin put an all-time high in today.
I mean, there's a lot to still like in this market.
That said, when you look at the indexes, today's candle is not something you like.
It's a take notice candle. For what it's worth, we are currently under the eight day for the first
time now in a while. And that to me is a concern, right? We just lost it. We'll see if we hold it
into the close or not. That's always what's important to me is do we hold it into the close,
you know, break it intraday by a little bit not a big deal how do we close yeah yeah um you know baba down hard baidu reversed and came down
target earnings were absolutely um i don't i don't i can't i can't say anything about their earnings besides cursing and saying some really nasty stuff.
That is just a unmitigated disaster, that report.
And it's a problem, right?
You know, that's just a problem for the markets.
Retail continues to be weak.
Apple, I don't know.
I was trying to figure out why we were down so much. So here's the funny thing. I went and did some research. So TechCrunch reported on April 7th that Johnny, sorry, whatever the name is, wanted to sell to OpenAI for $500 million. It went for $6.5 billion today. In one month, how did the valuation go from 500 million to 6.5 billion
uh it's you know neither one of them are public companies it's not a big deal but
boy there's a lot of money flying around here in ai underneath the covers
that's a valuation that may really come back to haunt open ai someday i mean it sounds like a
good thing on paper but it sounds like they just overpaid huge.
So, you know, we got two day trading days left this week.
There's, you know, tonight we have zoom earnings and we have snow.
I'm very interested in snow specifically in the zoom a little bit.
And then we have two trading days left in this week as we go into the holiday weekend.
And they're typically quieter days.
There's no real data coming at us.
So, you know, don't over trade.
You know, that's what I always try to say. Don't overtrade and take what the market gives you.
Yeah, I appreciate that options, Mike. It was interesting. You actually reminded me,
I guess so much that has happened, especially for me as a trader in the last couple hours that I
almost forgot Bitcoin knew all time high. I didn't even call that out today.
Good spot on that.
Do you think, I mean, is this hitting a point of over-exuberance where all of a sudden maybe
we have something going on here?
Do you think that we shrug off this bond market stuff?
What's kind of your early reaction?
I know you're a fantastic trader, so you'll adjust appropriately, but just
kind of your early reactions to all this. The market's waiting for a catalyst and we're not
having one right now, right? There's no earnings. Next week we have NVIDIA. That's a market mover.
There's no earnings that are going to move the market here. There's no economic data that's
going to move the market this week. We go into a short week next week and the white house has been mostly quiet which is not a
bad thing uh i actually appreciate it and you know we're waiting on this you know they have some
political uncertainty around the the tax bill that is sounds you know depending on who you listen to
it's either about to go through today or it's dead it's dead here at the moment uh i think we're just
waiting we're waiting for that next catalyst.
And we may not get it until next week.
So I think everybody just has to take a deep breath and relax and just, you know, we haven't gone anywhere under the eight day.
You know, unless we break this trend line and the 21 day, which are together for me on the SPY, and they are roughly down at that 572 area.
This is noise to me so far.
Appreciate that take there, Options Mike.
Of course, as anyone is reacting or giving out thoughts today,
would love some open dialogue.
Wolfie, I'm going to go over to you next.
I've picked your brain a little bit on bonds and yields lately.
What's your thoughts around what's going on here?
And, of course, anything else you've got today?
I mean, I want a top five bonds list from – I already gave you mine,
but I'm going to need one by the close of day. you know, I don't think that there's anything like really, you know, new to add to some of
the commentary I've made, we've made whatever in the last few days, but it's just playing out
a little bit differently than it played out the previous two days. The main thing that I think is going to be interesting is a lot of these moves kind of hit these seminal points.
And then we're backing off of those seminal points, in my opinion, or these inflection points, in my opinion. And I just, I don't think, I think the bond thing is not
the same as it was, I think, five years ago or whatever. If we are to cut rates currently,
not before you have any sort of crack or anything like that, they were to cut rates,
then the knee jerk wouldn't be for the long end
to come in. It'd be for it to go up because of an inflation fear. Because some of the options
might kind of touched on it with the Target quarter. It wasn't just Target. It was like
Home Depot as well. And there've been a couple of others. And if you want to pick on Target and say Target's been operated very poorly or they've done a bad job compared to Walmart or Costco or whatever, well, then you can take a look at like Walmart's report, which they kind of said something not to the same extent, but some things similarly.
Like, you know, they've seen inflation kind of tick up on some items and they're going to have to
pass it on effectively. But I just, if that's the case, then it boxes the Fed in. And if you've got
yields pressing the way that they're pressing, what is the fair value on, you know, risk assets?
That's basically the math problem that people are going to start doing um i don't have the answer i don't know i think you know from a technical perspective
is everybody kind of wants to see this 200-day retest hold whatever um i think maybe it holds
maybe it doesn't but the the main thing that i think we got to pay attention to is, you know, what happens post NVIDIA?
I said this yesterday.
You got like a little bit of quiet period.
After NVIDIA, you've got like a window between now and the Fed.
So like what happens?
Do we just consolidate?
Do we hope that something positive happens?
Because like Option Mike says, people are waiting for a catalyst.
And then what is the language around that?
And so I think if the language kind of is not what people want,
I think that's where the rubber hits the road.
And you possibly have this Trump v. Fed part two,
but it would be more aggressive.
And then the secondary part that I find interesting,
I don't think it's coincidental.
It's just that you get VIX-piration,
and then as soon as that happens,
the VIX kind of creeps back up into the 20s.
So I think just to reiterate,
now that we've got a red red day right because yesterday was great
it was yesterday green i don't remember but like a few days ago was green yesterday effectively flat
people are buying the dip uh basically if they're not long the last few sessions um any opportunity
to get long they got long but uh it's not enough to really move the needle
beyond where where it was the last few sessions like plus minus half a percent um and now i think
that you have the the vix pressing into the 20s it's i want to see how how things kind of shake up
right i want to see if this is like uh you know if if this
higher vix base that i've been talking about for you know several months now like the pre-trop
the vix was trading in 10 to 12 range now it's kind of like Thank you.
