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MARKET TALK-100k BTC BEFORE CHRISTMAS!? ALTCOIN PUMP SOON?!
Recorded: Dec. 8, 2025 Duration: 1:25:11Space Recording
Short Summary
Market Talk dives into the latest trends and potential growth opportunities in the crypto space, discussing the impact of strategic partnerships, the possibility of a Christmas rally, and the implications of upcoming monetary policy changes. With insights on market performance and the importance of community engagement, the conversation highlights both the challenges and opportunities facing crypto enthusiasts.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I don't want to be me.
I don't want to be me anymore. Oh The power of the wind and his own Two glass houses, one key stones
One key yellow, six star blue
Calling me worse, like the ball
I don't wanna be, I don't wanna be there
I don't wanna be, me and I'm gonna runはぁっ わとっ
はどうぞ わのことでいいです
はどうぞ
を わためな Oh Oh
You're there Well Wow I'll make your eyes away.
Don't go back the next stage. I'm going to get out to the night. I'm going to get out to the night.me1me
mememe Yo, what's going on, guys?
Got a bit of a surprise for everyone here, man.
The eighth wonder of the world.
Hagrid, the seven-footer, the 500-pound behemoth from Little Rock, Arkansas, is going to join me and talk markets with you all today.
And I'm sure it's going to be a fantastic time, guys.
I'm also here joined by Louie and Prometheus.
I want to welcome you all back to Market Talk, brought to you by BB.
I hope you guys had a fantastic weekend.
Dude, oddly enough, it's really strange uh the iwm keeps making these small all-time highs we actually made a new all-time
high for the iwm today by like half a point which is really strange man um mscCR is not really doing much. Qs aren't really doing much. S&P is kind of just
dragging down into the close. And typically, going into the second half of December,
there's not really much price action, whether we're in a bull trend or a bear trend.
Not really much occurs, even if we were to go back to like 2021, when the bear market got started.
After that nuke that we had in early December, the market didn't really do much until I believe like that second week of January when the Ukraine war really started to ramp up.
Um, but I'll say this, man, I think truly, truly Max Payne, I think rather than straight down is probably a crab.
If I'm being honest until like Powell leaves office.
And this is just a dubious take for me.
You guys know I like these shows to be filled with dubious speculation.
these shows to be filled with dubious speculation but uh you know i really wish i was able to like
video stream on here and show charts and all that stuff but if you look at the way that uh we made
that all-time high at 126 in early october compared to the high uh that we made back in January. It's almost identical to the high that we put in in March of 2024.
And you were compared that to the high that we made in November of 21, a marginal high of about
seven, eight percent, six percent, six to eight percent. What's the cover percentage points among
friends, followed by a large drawdown and then nothing
for months and months and months and months and months and months.
We hit 74 in March of 24.
Then we hit 55 a couple of weeks after that, that World War III FUD that we had in early
April of 24.
Then GCR came out of the woodwork.
So the question is, are you fully prepared for a crab?
But the other dubious take is a Christmas rally, right? If the IWM continues to trail on here to
the upside and actually starts to rip, what does that mean for crypto? And if we look at these
small little periods of time over the last three years where the IWM started to outperform mega cap tech
or what I like to say mega cap talk right if you guys look at uh summer of 23 specifically from like
late June to early August of 2023 the IWM actually had some good outperformance against the Qs and also the S&P.
Same thing goes for late October of 23 all the way to late December.
I think that was like the strongest rally that the IWM has had against the S&P and also the NASDAQ over the course of the start of the cycle,
deck over the course of the start of the cycle which uh began in in late october for equities
and uh late november for crypto that's the strongest rally as far as time is concerned
we talk about the iwm outperforming the mega cap tech stocks and right now it's probably been like
call it like uh a week and a half where the iwm has really uh started to
make some noise here so what does that mean for crypto right can we actually see 100k before
christmas there are some bears that share even 107 can be a massive shoulder, similar to what 52K was in late December of 2021, where, I mean, I understand the comparisons. fundamental catalysts that could actually take us to the upside the first one being
Powell leaving office and Trump bringing in someone that's going to make Alan
Greenspan seem like Paul Volcker for those that don't know who Alan
Greenspan is he's basically the guy who injected all that money during the last
stages of the financial crisis to make sure that the country doesn't fall into a great depression.
So I think that's something to look forward to. I understand on a technical basis that
you got BTC still below the 52 weekly moving average. You also have the super trend flipping
bearish, which is honestly pretty bad. You have the super trend flipping bearish, which is honestly pretty bad.
You have the super trend flipping bearish on the weekly and also on the daily.
So I understand both sides of the camp.
I just think what's in between is something that people aren't ready for,
where there could still be plenty of upside opportunities.
Things on chain right now, there are some runners but again it's very
very selective um and there's always going to be some stuff that trends on chain and um if you guys
want to come up and talk shop by the way feel free to do so uh once again i know we just started this
last monday some of you guys already know but Market Talk is going to be starting now at 3.30 p.m. EST rather than 4.30 p.m. EST.
Reason for that is so that some of the guys from BV can join me and talk and yap with me here on Spaces.
So once again, Market Talk is going to be starting at 3.30 p.m. EST rather than 4.30 p.m. EST.
At least for now, right? At least for now.
This show has undergone many changes as far as time is concerned.
I remember at some point, I think I was doing two streams for Market Talk a week,
which started at like 2. p.m est um back when guys like avocado
were on the show which hopefully he can come on the show at some point man he's a pretty good chad
but uh either way guys if you guys could go ahead and show some love to spaces helps bring this show
out more into the algorithm guys best way to do that is by clicking the spaces tab once you guys do that
you'll see a nice link that says x.com slash i slash spaces and i'm talking about chain link i'm
talking about the link to the spaces so guys hit the like button hit the repost button helps bring
the show more into the algorithm helps please our tech overlords and all that stuff. And after the show, I will be having some eggs.
I might even have some bacon.
I might even have some orange juice.
So today is going to be an exciting day.
We're going to go ahead and talk some shop.
But as I said to start off the show, I've got the eighth wonder of the world,
the 7-foot, 500 500 pound former lineman for the
chicago cowboys big tuck wow wow yes the chicago cowboys wow yeah the chicago cowboys football
team bro from the nfl never heard of that that's a new one dude i i i have to give you i have to give you a hyped introduction man
you know what i'm saying if i just say oh let's pass the mic over to tucker what are you seeing
out there man wabi you said a lot so i mean up or down uh up or down dude that's that's that dude that's a good question your head but before christmas
dude how about this dude i know the answers to questions that people don't even know how to ask
that's what i'll say as far as uh price action is concerned but i mean i mean i'll mean dude i'll say this man look um monad on chain is trash uh unfortunately
i got very disappointed on do you remember a long time ago when you told me that monad on
chain would top the market or monad would top yeah yeah i i sure did And the moment that the Monad cards got announced,
I believe it was like late August, early September.
And I remember, Boonshire, where you said,
oh, according to the halving cycle,
we should be topping out in early September.
And then in early September, we had a...
Because look, look, it was 2017.
It was December.
Last cycle, it was November. This cycle, it was 2017, it was December. Last cycle, it was November.
This cycle, it was October, right?
Yeah.
And, I mean, I could end it in an okay way, right?
We had Aster.
What was the other one?
Avanus.
And then the Pokemon stuff with cards and Hutch.
And then the Pokemon stuff with cards and Hutch.
A few months before, we had Buddy and LaunchCoin.
Kled was another good one.
So, I mean, 2025, I would honestly rate it like a 6 out of 10.
And that's just like going outside of the on-chain biases that we have
people that like live on chain but i would say for the overall market i would say it's six out of ten
um hopefully not not hopefully bro because like when you when you find yourself coping about the
market saying oh hopefully next year is better it's just i think it's just a skill issue at that
point and sometimes you got to take the market for what it is and right now the market kind of blows
but it still has some opportunity um i at least i think so and i i do believe things like buying
hype below 30 bucks um i don't know if suey is going to be a good buy to be honest
but as far as the l1 trade whenever monad bottoms out maybe it's that one um because if suey and
say caught a bid why wouldn't monad catch a bid especially with all the money they have
but i mean just here locally man um i would even say like if this is actually going to be
mean just here locally man um i would even say like if this is actually going to be a bear market
uh because the price action is now a bit different than q1 if this is going to be like 2022 style but
a bit shorter then i would say like yeah probably rally going a little bit over 100k and then
smacking it back down for i don't know a double bottom at 74
or 75 and all coins crater um and that ends up being a low where we just crab for two months
and then when pow leaves um that's it right we have we have the march in march there's like a
solar blood moon whatever whatever it's called are Are you saying Santa Rally, Wabi?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, it's the Santa Rally before, I guess, people receive coal or something like that.
But, I mean, speaking of coal, coal world, he has the last laugh, man.
Always.
But, yeah, man, dude, feel free to give some of your thoughts here locally there's a bit
of a discrepancy right um here at bb you remember uh me and you we made that video on the iwm um
in relation to crypto performance back in august of 2023 um and we find ourselves in a uh strange situation right because usually what we see with
with low caps whenever the IWM actually breaks out we saw this I believe in 2011 uh 2017 and 2021
whenever the IWM starts to actually break out and actually has that push through of like five to ten percent um which would
take the iwm right now to like 265 ish right crypto usually follows which i mean i guess could have
that little lead lag where equities actually did make an all-time high last month but crypto
didn't really do that maybe a little push to like 100k um and I don't know
bro 30% gap down sometime in q1 and that would follow the whole crypto blood moon eclipse which
happened uh in March of last year we all know what happened during that time period and um it happened in late september but nothing really
occurred until a couple of weeks after on 10 10 but nonetheless there has been some sort of signal
there right um where it it lags behind a little bit or it hits right on so after that i i think we're probably off to the races man like
early q2 i think like most of the damage has been done if they're even if they're really
gonna crater this thing bro you know yeah those are kind of my thoughts locally and moving forward
but usually like the second half of december there's not much that that happens in
the market like most of the flows um are already done from trad fi at this point um and the flows
for majors have mostly been from trad fi this entire year because after the money that was
poured into the market from normal people in 2024 and 2023 a lot of that just got rinsed
um through trump and melania coin and like all those mega bounces that we had uh from like
february to april and a lot of altcoins just made lower highs and lower lows after that
made dead cat bounce despite bitcoin and eth making um all-time highs so for alt it's
a bit of a tricky situation i'm not really like paying attention to any probably just more like
selective opportunities on chain but um yeah man that's those are kind of my thoughts as far as like
the santa rally and uh and all that stuff yeah i mean as far as, like, the Santa Rally and all that stuff.
Yeah, I mean.
As far as, like, going.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I was going to say, I mean, I agree.
I mean, I think we can have a Santa Rally.
I mean, I think we're due.
Obviously, last year, you know, we should have gotten one.
We didn't.
Key one should have been one. We didn't. Key one should have been good.
It wasn't.
Unfortunately, usually how key one goes is how key four goes, right?
So that's also what got me partially bearish earlier this quarter.
But yeah, I don't know.
This is a very tough spot.
Like I, and I know this is like know this is like fence sitting or whatever,
but I could see Bitcoin at 100K next week
or I could see it at 75K next week.
Genuinely.
And I think there's alpha in being patient here, honestly.
I think during periods like this like you said like
when flows are when flows are low and trad fi also hasn't really picked a direction has kind
of been shopping and pulling back like it's usually not a great time to go super hard into
crypto one where it like directionally biased um so i so I don't know, man, I think, I think being patient
here, I think we definitely could go higher. I would probably be pretty bearish around a hundred
K. Um, I think if you go too much higher than that, like you, you pretty much have to be bullish.
Like I think if you reclaim like one Oh five, one Oh eight, one 10, like like I don't think there's any reason to be bearish at or above
those levels but I think like high 90s 100 like I think you have pretty tight invalidation on shorts
so I think uh I mean that's what I'll be looking for to get short again um but yeah I don't know
I mean there's definitely some stuff like you know if
we do end up going down to 75 like you know just to talk about the other side of the trade like
you know manad hype you know avici like there's some there's some stuff out there that uh
that's a good one bro that's a pretty damn good one yeah there's plenty of like little uh
yeah yeah there's plenty of like you know gems i think that uh that are gonna be good buys if we
do head back down um or even if we go up and then head down which i think is ultimately the direction
but um yeah i don't know i think i think being patient here is gonna pay for sure i
think uh over trading especially the last like you know 60 days has not been fruitful um so yeah i
mean that's that's kind of where i'm at i'm trying to do less right now i'm trying to be patient wait
for buys or wait for shorts from higher i think trading here is what tommy says you know
diddling in the middle um so gonna try to avoid that but yeah that's kind of my take locally
yes dude so for all coins like what sectors are you looking at because i know
you mentioned um avici and it's like probably one of one of the only fair launches that we've seen this cycle
there was Casper which I don't know if you can call Casper a token from this cycle because it
came out during um the middle of the bear market I think Casper literally came out like a week
before Luna went to zero but either way fair launch kta was also a fair launch and the market
loves fair launches this thing launched at like three mil um they didn't even raise that much
money i think they only raised like like 1.8 mil through metadal and again they launched at like
three mil i think their their all time high was like
100 or something like that. So it pulled off like 1000, 2000% move while majors were in a downtrend.
So are you looking for that kind of stuff like revenue generating products, which I guess Hyperliquid would be something that leads that, right?
It's one of the space's largest revenue-generating products,
which I believe they've made like a billion in net over the last 12 months,
which is honestly insane, man.
If Hyperliquid were a stock, I sometimes wonder, would this thing have the evaluation of hood?
And you actively see more people going from centralized exchanges over to DEXs.
And I think over a long enough time horizon, you'll see hyper liquid generate at least like half if
not more than the money that that binance makes because binance isn't going anywhere bro the the
monopoly they have in crypto is kind of like what apple has in the uh in the tech industry at this
point yeah i mean i think so i think i mean obviously it's hard to find something that's
that has a real product in crypto right like it's hard to find something that's
actually revenue generating that people use um so yeah i mean obviously hype uh i've seen some
stats on avici we'll see but um i think that thing might be topped for a little bit i don't know um
but I think that thing might be topped for a little bit.
I don't know.
I just think in playing altcoins,
like I think you just got to respect
what Bitcoin and Ether are doing first
and then look for, you know,
strong revenue generating protocols.
But yeah, it's like I don't want to buy,
even if something like Avicii actually is a perfect example,
like great product, fair launch, you know, revenue generator, but Bitcoin's in a downtrend.
ETH is in a downtrend.
You know, now the thing looks top.
Like it was, it was trending against the market for like a month or two.
And if you weren't in that, like, you know, I think it's probably time to wait for something
like that.
But yeah, I don't know.
I think, again, like patience with altcoins.
Sector agnostic, right?
Like doesn't matter what sector.
You know, I think being patient is going to pay
until obviously majors flip their trend meaningfully.
But, yeah, I mean, that's kind of where i'm sitting with the alts um
yeah dude how was your weekend man let me speak to you as a person
rather than like throwing stuff up out the market at you bro how was your weekend uh how was your
training session man you know i i did some uh i did some preacher curls
with dumbbells and i actually thought of you because you were asking me about my bicep yeah
how was your how was your super nation bro full super nation or what it it was honestly so
disrespectful man that i'm not strong enough to curl 60 pound dumbbells even though i've posted
so many of my videos i just had to check bro i
just had to check yeah that that's that's the thing right full supination uh nah but i um
i did a preacher curls with 40 pound dumbbells towards the end of biceps before i
not yeah i started off with biceps so to finish off biceps i did um preacher curls
with dumbbells the 40s for sets of 15 um and i stopped shortly before like it's fully
extended because like you could actually tear a bicep um even if it's like sub-maximal weight if if you extend that joint um to to a hyper
extended amount like i i've i've seen on youtube like dudes with big arms just having a tear with
with uh and i don't know why that kind of sounds like cope maybe maybe bro maybe maybe maybe short the the wabi and uh the wabi uh dumbbell preacher curl
pair man um speaking about that dude like there was something that i brought uh out into my
personal profile in regards to alt season right People always want to yap and cope about alt season, right?
Over the last few years, there's this huge rally that's incoming for alts, this and that.
But it's mostly been selective for the entirety of the cycle, right?
And what we've seen over the last few years is the growth in usage with these platforms
and prediction markets, right?
We've seen things like Poly markets right we've seen things
like polymarket we've seen we've seen things like calci those are the main two big prediction
markets right and of course there's always there's always sports betting but it's mainly
uh pms that have had insane growth year over year to the point where like we're now seeing such a discrepancy in risk
right where we're seeing things like kaush and polymarket going up the app store uh and coinbase
and even robin hood are going down in the app store so dude do you think like the money that
would have gone to to alt stride and create this magical thing called alt season went into things
like prediction markets rather than yeah i mean dude like people and some people say like yeah
i mean dude people just want to people need well i say people want to gamble like it's almost to
the point where people need to gamble right like and we can get into macro this and that
inflation and whatever right but like i um it's basically at the point people like you essentially
kind of have to gamble if you're if you're like in your 20s but regardless um yeah i mean i think
like people want to talk about the pump fund dilution um of altcoins but i mean yeah like
you bring up a great point like i think uh any form of like degenerate gambling that
that has come right like prediction markets and uh sports betting getting bigger like
i there you didn't used to be able to advertise like draftraftKings used to not be able to advertise.
You know what I mean?
That became a thing two or three years ago, I feel like.
I did not even know what DraftKings was during COVID and all that.
Yeah, I do.
I think all that kind of stuff probably took a little juice out of the
throw-a-dart- a dart at a board type alt season
that we were, you know, looking for, expecting like 2021, 2017.
And that's probably not going to change, you know,
like people are only going to get more aggressive
and we're only going to get more users on prediction markets.
So, yeah, I think it's chasing the dragon you know what i mean it's fully fully and i'm a
victim you know not a victim but like i'm a whatever i am at fault of it too of chasing
the dragon of 2021 bro just say it bro just say it man i'm a man and i like to gamble. Just say it, bro. Yes, bro. I am a man. I do like to gamble, yeah.
For sure.
There's no shame in it, bro.
There's no shame in it.
No, but
I think we're all just chasing the dragon
of the alt season of 2021.
That's really all there is to it.
It's probably
not coming. It's probably not coming
the way it was because of all these other types of betting that have become available, basically.
So, yeah.
Yeah, I understand, man.
I mean, it's nothing against Pump Fun, right?
Like, I think everyone on this panel and most people that listen to this show specifically, like, you've all made money on Punk, dude.
You've all made money on Punk Fun.
Whether it was the AI trade in Q4 of last year, which looking back on it, it's probably going to be looked at as like DeFi Summer 2.0.
And if you remember, dude, like there was literally a runner every few days while the entire market basically did nothing after the election um
i mean this time last year like the overall market was topped but ai still kept on running
and um dude i wonder if there's like a bet right now if um if powell is gonna leave office or not
i think that'd be a good bet because there's there's also the other side of the coin.
Right. Which is if there's one thing that Trump loves to have is an enemy.
He loves to have an opponent. Right. Someone to put the blame on as far as economic policy, fiscal policy, whatever you want to call it.
And that would be Powell, right?
Is there a way where Powell can actually, like, stay?
Because I feel like consensus is pointing towards, like,
Powell is actually going to leave office and Trump is going to bring someone in new.
But there's always the other side of the coin.
Always. And I actually believe you can even look at like polymarket bets, if they're going to
cut interest rates or not. And it went from like majority no to now flipping to
majority that they actually are going to be cutting rates during the next Fed meeting.
What do you think, Tucker?
Let me pick your brain, man.
It's been... I forgot the last time that you were even on here, man.
When was it?
I don't even remember, dude.
It's been such a long time.
oh man tucker just told me that he's leaving the show to go ahead and do some uh to do some curls
man uh prometheus what's up bro how are you give me your most bearish take, bro. That's how you have to start off. What is up with? Just give me the most.
Yeah, dude.
There always has to be an enemy, bro.
There always has to be like, oh, did you hear that guy on Market Talk?
He did this, this, and that.
If this was just a show where I just ask questions, dude, it'd be pretty boring.
Yeah, yeah.
That's what I try not to do to make this into like
an interview show that ends up being like an audio version of the late night show with jay leno
i see which i i really strive not to do that that's a tough listen and yeah what what breaks
my heart is like i i i gave some pretty good points to Tucker,
and he's like, nah, dude, the chickens need to go home and roost.
So Tucker said he's going to finish up his duck hunting
rather than just yap with his boy here on spaces, bro.
Oh, man.
You know what I'm saying, dude?
But some interesting stuff, by the way, guys.
Me and Prometheus were actually talking about this.
It's the idea of a new show, right?
You guys can go ahead and comment on it on the little comment section.
So the idea of this new show is called Market Cap, right?
So we have Market Check and Market Talk.
But what about Market cat right and it's this idea of a super late or super early show right the show would be either at like 12 a.m est or 1 a.m est
and it would just be me tucker andometheus just drawing lines straight up or straight down on various cryptographic assets.
And we'd be wearing some, I would say some nice suits, bro.
Just wearing suits.
But what's up, man?
Yeah, I think it would be awesome, bro.
What are you thinking?
I think it would be entertaining for everybody.
Just put on some ridiculous outfits and just scribble on some charts and give ridiculous takes.
I mean, it's kind of a breath of fresh air, honestly.
Yeah, just straight up or straight down, like Capo style, bro.
Straight up in a straight line or straight down and just give some ridiculous thesis, man.
like some ridiculous thesis man but i mean look man um we have the week starting off
But, I mean, look, man.
pretty odd with the iwm which i mean again this thing is either like just topping out here or
it's actually gonna gap up could you imagine like five ten percent could you imagine that, man? Triple top on the IWM.
That would be crazy.
Yeah.
I mean, I'd give it like a week tops, man.
Otherwise, like, I don't know, this thing is probably in distribution or something.
That would be my guess, man.
But what are your thoughts as far as like how the week is starting? I mean, if you look at the SPY traditionally,
when we've reached, you know,
higher timeframe topping structures,
within that, you know, upper range that we create,
usually, you know, you make one minuscule marginal high every time within the topping structure.
within the topping structure.
I am not as concerned with equities.
I am not as concerned with equities.
We are seeming to run out of a little bit of steam up here
just from a technical perspective.
We're slowing down a little bit.
I mean, VIX and volatility look pretty good,
look decent for bulls, I would say.
I don't know.
Maybe today was more so caused because of the earthquake in Japan.
I don't know.
Maybe we'll see if that is the reason why.
And if bears can actually see anything fruitful come their way in equity land throughout this week.
I think you have a lot of pieces of the pie right now that don't necessarily make a lot of sense. But at the same time, you know, I think you or Tucker was mentioning that bears are running out of time and I'm kind of in the opposite camp. I'm in the I'm in the opposite seat. Right. I'm taking this out of the coin coin and i think it's actually bulls more so
in crypto are running out of time and if you especially if you look at where we're currently
at like we're having immense trouble getting back above our yearly open and if you don't get it back
above your yearly open and i tweeted this out today you've created a 12 months worth of supply
right this entire year has been then confirmed distribution um and you've created you created a 12 months worth of supply right this entire year has been then confirmed distribution
um and you've created you know a massive massive supply zone um in the chart and for price and
people are really optimistic that price is just going to be able to like if you recover from here
and get back above the highs i'm worried about crypto um at least if you're bullish, like I would be worried because
there has been a massive, massive decoupling. It is not like it is not a small decoupling between
the two asset classes. It is significant in nature. And not only if equities show any bit
of weakness, but what happens if like, you know you know guys the indices are at new highs right
essentially like they're literally at all-time highs and crypto is i mean we're down like what
30 percent about roughly give or take you know a few percentage points uh from our highs so
you know it's pretty significant in my eyes and just goes to show me again that there is probably some cautious positioning that needs to be made in the portfolios.
I think that there's some weaker signs that are showing themselves within the economy, specifically the job market.
specifically the job market. And I remember when we were, you know, back in coming out of 21,
going into 22, everybody was like, you know, even the Fed was like, oh, you know,
inflation won't be transitory. You know, don't don't worry about inflation. You know,
we're only going to, you know, hike rates to like, I think it was like 150 basis points or maybe like 200 basis points, right? And they
obviously ended up, you know, going well, you know, they ended up going over 500 basis points
at the time and inflation went, you know, meaningfully past what initially was thought
possible. And I think potentially the job market could be in a similar position where a lot of
people are like, Oh, don't worry about the job market.
It'll stabilize. You know, don't don't worry about this gradual uptick in unemployment.
And historically, whenever that happens, you know, when that does happen, mind you, it is almost always led to a recessionary period.
Right. It's never like, oh, we just have like, you know, you know, unemployment's trending up in a meaningful way for, you know, months and months and months and quarters and quarters.
And it just, you know, and we remain OK, like the economy remains OK.
But I'm here for it. Like, I mean, I still have long exposure and quite a few equity positions.
I think that I talked about that on our Space On,
I think it was Friday, I believe.
But crypto is a little bit of a different story here.
You know, a lot of charts look really weak.
You're showing hyperliquid, showing some weakness.
That's been a leader in the market.
And if these market leaders aren't really showing us,
you know, or more so are showing us the instability in the asset class,
I'm taking a lot of signal out of that. And unless something can change in a big way, I'm just, I
mean, nothing changes from my perspective, right? Altcoins, you don't touch with a 10-foot pole,
unless you're wanting to just like outright, you know, gamble in a pretty degenerate way.
I think you have to be super cautious the altcoin exposure
here um and if you're doing so just be mindful of the fact that like liquidity is not present in
crypto um on chain is a meaningful measure of that and wabi is a great you know reader of what's
going on on chain and wabi was you can tell you you, you know, I mean, on chain outside of a few KOL names is pretty barren across the board, man.
But I think you got an opportunity and, and I think that what that opportunity is, is
that, um, you know, you're going to be able to buy some discounted assets, some heavily
discounted assets in the next, you know, six to nine months.
That'll be fantastic for, you know. That'll be fantastic buys for a good
decade to come. So I'm super excited for that opportunity. I am. And if I don't get it, I mean,
altcoins are bruised and battered and majors like Sol and ETH, I mean, I'd probably buy ETH if I
were to buy anything as of right now, but are still
significantly off their highs. And if we go back, you know, break some key levels, in my opinion,
it's sure we can talk, it's game on, but I don't, I just don't see it. Like, I just don't see it
happening. You talked about the low volatility environment that we usually enter into towards
the end of the year. And actually, if people remember, I think it was two Christmases ago. It was a pretty bad Christmas in regards to the
markets. And we'll see if we get a big pullback again. We'll see if that happens. And like I said,
you've created now a lot of supply overhead. And based off of how we close December is going to be
very, very, very meaningful for 26 in regards to, you know, if we're unable to get back above
that yearly open, guys, that's a big deal. Like that is a big, big, big deal for rebalancing
and positioning across the board from more so an institutional perspective.
Saylor continues to hammer the buy button relentlessly. He just does not care about
his fill. He does not care about his fill he does not care about his price um
i don't know what to say about that at this point it's pretty pertinent you know what's crazy man
talking about sailor institutions yeah man sailor cares about price but these institutions
they don't care about price because they make money either either direction through fees
that's what that's what needs to be said right like you think larry finkelstein
cares about price like a year from now no dude like he cares about it like three years from now
his his whole thing is to make money on fees right i bet's the most successful etf product from
blackrock but at the end of the day it's all about fees and let's generate it through volume
and sell volume can be pretty damn big man it can be pretty damn big so people wanted
tradify money until they're all into their coins and this is what you get you get uh you get
multiple quarters of weird conditions on majors because Bitcoin affects the top 50, top 100 more than anything else.
Because you could still have Bitcoin in a downtrend, right?
Because Bitcoin was technically in a downtrend from March of last year until August.
from March of last year until August, and you still had runners. Bitcoin has also been in a
And you still had runners.
downtrend from early August up until that low from a few weeks ago, and you still had some
alts on chain doing quite well. So it's weird when you bring in Shradify and if you want Shradify to buy like type and soul and then some other stuff, you're just asking to get rinsed for even longer before the big push up happens. this take that I'm sure you've seen on the timeline where, man, people are comparing ETH to Amazon, like post.com,
where it really doesn't do anything for like 10 years.
And the more that these institutional products come in,
the more it actually like delays the inevitable big, big pushup.
Because we all know that ETH is going to hit 10K at some point, right?
But the time it's going to take to get there's it's going to be filled with some choppy times
um because in order for Tradify to actually accumulate you need price to remain somewhat
stable um you need volatility to be a bit compressed and then you have that expansion
and I don't know bro if we're going to get that expansion that people are talking about next year,
then I guess they're just going to run this nation hot, late 80s style.
And I don't know, bro.
We probably have some two-year bear on majors after that.
If we actually do get that melt up that that credit expansion which which
could happen if trump actually brings in his boy to be the new fed chair rather than just having
pow in so he can put the figure at somebody maybe we actually get that that uh that trump pump man
but i think that christmas that you were talking about was in 2022 wasn't it when like tesla and coin were employed yeah
yeah but uh yeah sailor cares about price but these other guys don't man i just wanted to
throw that out there while you were speaking no yeah you're good um it's so weird man it's just
it's so like the markets are just so i like dislocated in so many different ways. It's there is a bid for more defensive stocks and companies.
And that's something we haven't seen in a while, man.
We've not seen defensives have a meaningful bid in quite a while.
I mean, really since 22.
So, yeah, it's going to be interesting.
I'm still in the camp that 26 is a bear market and I'm not like a cycle believer. I'm just like,
I'm like this. I mean, the chart just looks awful. And Bitcoin that is. And you take,
right, you derive signal generally for the most part, at least in the crypto asset class, you know, the rest of the crypto asset class from Bitcoin.
So just looking at that chart, man, it's it's I can't look at that chart and be bullish.
And I'm not a macro, you know, I mean, I can understand macro.
I can talk macro, but, you know, people like to talk macro. And the interesting thing from, you know, from a thesis perspective when it comes to
macro for the most part is there are so many different variables and components you have
to take into account that are almost immeasurable, right?
You can't actually, that matter in whatever calculation or thesis that whoever it is may
be talking about.
And most of the time, people don't actually look at, you know, into the, you know, the,
those like variables and really figure out what is equating the equation or making up the equation.
And so, I mean, I'm not just, I'm not looking at macro and I don't want to hope that Trump does X, Y, and Z. I just, I got to look at the chart. And then if I do see intervention in a, in a meaningful way, I will jump back into these markets so fast.
full size like no no question about it um yeah i i think i talked about it like you could
essentially still come up into like people are like oh if you come up into like a hundred and
you know 8k you're you're you know you're now bullish i mean i you could easily very well
justify a bear scenario coming all the way up into 108k and could you imagine how many
people would pile back into this markets at 108k but you want to know something bro btc can easily
go to 108k but on-chain can still be a wasteland and that's the thing that people have to take
into account you want bitcoin to reach xyz level right but as we saw this year yo bitcoin went up like
50 percent in a matter of months back to all-time high from its april lows and on chain has just
had lower ceilings and lower ceilings and lower ceilings yeah look at the total three turn bro
like literally just look at the total three total, bro. Like, literally, just look at the total three chart, bro.
Dude, total three, here's the thing with total three, man.
It's a psyop, right?
And here's why.
With altcoins, right, a lot of the high caps, they're proof of stake.
They have a lot of supply.
Anything that you can stake has, like, 5% to 10% staking yield.
Whether it's ETH, SOL, LINK, a lot of these tokens in the top 50, they have staking yield. I think the thing that people really have to watch out for, man, is others BTC, man.
That is the ticker.
This total two, total three thing, it's just been copTC, man. That is the ticker. This total two, total three thing,
it's just been coped, honestly.
And when you have these newer tickers coming onto the market
that launch at ridiculous valuations,
you're adding in billions in market cap
to total two, total three,
plus the staking yield and all that stuff right
i think that's where people kind of kind of get psyop dude for the slop it's it's it's that's
what it is bro slop and um you know unfortunately during this time period right like some people are just trapped into into into bull posting even even if it's
crab or or her down and i think i might actually have to go back to like posting some bull slop
wabi you want to know what the best thing for the markets were honestly genuinely speaking for
the markets entering into the 2000s was the dot-com crash because it created it what
it did is it changed the dynamic of how these companies were structured and it made people
create value like it made these companies create value in a meaningful way sure there was you know
a period of you know death and rebirth but it very, very, very much so for the benefit of equities, right?
And like the NASDAQ and for everybody, right?
For an entire generation of investors.
And if crypto needs to go through something similar, which to be determined, I think think would be better for it if we want to go into the discussion.
But to move away from this quantity perspective and towards that quality would be so good for this space.
And, you know, that's where probably you get the integration to happen.
I thought it was going to happen a lot sooner than it was because of, you know, the pace at which we've seen just this economy and society move at and the acceleration that we're seeing across the board and just from time in general.
But if, you know, we do see even like a multi-year bear market in crypto i genuinely like people think it'd be over for the
asset class i think it would create you know within a decade it would make the dot-com bubble
look like pennies um because i think there's a lot of innovation that still has yet to be realized
um and there's a lot of genius out there there just is not like there's just a lot of noise
yeah um i mean gosh dude a multi-year bear market in crypto i think the longest
the longest bear market if we were to consider crypto for what it is right now would be 2018 um that was like a full 12 months i don't count the 23rd the 2014 bear
which lasted about like 14 from november of 2013 all the way to january of 2015 because there
weren't really many assets tradable uh i think xrp was literally like number two after bitcoin um
like number two after Bitcoin.
And 2022 for BTC, most of that bear market was only like seven months.
Because who cares if you bought at 17 to 19K instead of 15K?
For the most part, that bear market for BTC specifically didn't really last that long.
And it wasn't, I mean, it wasn't really that crazy to be honest
um but if a multi-year bear were actually having a crypto right and we end up making lower lows
next quarter and then in quarter four um then we probably see hype retest eight dollars at some
point which are probably even lower probably like like seven bucks, six bucks or something
like that. A deviation below it's $8 high. Like if, if, if your longer, longer term bear market
pans out, right. And that would be, all right. Trump brings in this one dude, this new fed chair,
people are skeptical of it. And he doesn't put in his policies as early as he thought
it would be. And you have Scott Bessent saying, oh, just wait a few more months, just wait a few
more months. And we don't end up bottoming out until like September, right? You know, the
September scaries, which is usually you have an August crash and then you have a double bottom in September.
That usually happens most years, right, with the exception of this year.
Maybe that happens, right?
We bottom on in September.
That would be a traditional crypto bear market as far as length.
And you probably get to rebuy 1010 wicks or april lows depending on which asset
you're looking at right so that would be pepe at a market cap of like 400 mil ish or 300 mil i think
that's where the 1010 wick is uh which would honestly be great like you have a clean 100x
to be honest on that ticker and i don't even like pepe anymore to be frank um but
it would be like a value buy at that point because if there's one thing that this market is always
going to have it's the meme coin bid uh to some degree it's always going to have that even if you
don't like it like i certainly don't at all but i respect it because dude the flows are just there no matter the
conditions you had six seven coin go to like almost 50 uh you had wojack going to like 70
in a week and a half um so the bid is there even in crappy market conditions so when we go full
risk on like even if you like even if you don't even if you like
tech and you don't like memes like you're probably still gonna bid memes um so there's that right
but um at some point we'll have that like trump pump where everything melts up um then it's just
a matter of like tapering your expectations because by that point it's probably
going to be so many tokens where you're still going to have to rotate to be honest um and
crypto is still such a young asset class where it's like where it's like even the best projects
with the best of intentions are going to fail, right? As far as like time lasting in the
market, you have things like synthetics, right? That was an incredible product, right? Trading
stocks on chain, trading synthetic assets on chain. That's basically what it was. And it went
to billions last cycle. But there was just so much competition that came out that it just got destroyed things like GMX remember GMX no one's even heard of no one no one keeps up with what they do anymore
even though like they were the biggest protocol in Arbitrum who remembers Arbitrum probably nobody
because you now have base right and what's stopping base from bridging off of Ethereum
becoming its own chain you know what I'm saying?
That's another thing, too, that people aren't taking into account.
And what does that mean for Ethereum, right?
If Coinbase decides, hey, let's just make our own L1 and not depend on ETH.
They don't really need ETH, to be honest.
And they can easily extract from ETH in a big way.
Launch their token on base and then bridge off over to their L1.
And that's that.
I think that's what KTA is doing, isn't it, Prometheus?
Like, once they go full mainnet.
Yeah, they're going to have anchors, so they'll be able to, yeah,
I mean, you'll be able to, I mean, go to whatever chain you want
and do whatever you want.
Yeah, I mean, it's essentially just like a one-stop shop for
access to every single chain kind of thing
oh so wraps kta let's get some thoughts from louis what's up man feel free to give some of your
uh thoughts into the conversation that we've been having man what's going on how are you guys
how we doing what's up man i'm doing great on? How are you? How are you guys? How we doing? I'm doing
great, man. I'm doing fantastic. What's up, bro? Nothing much. Just hanging out. I like all those
points. Great, great stuff. I would say still kind of the same, right? I've been coming up on
these spaces for the last week or two.
And still for me right now, the canary in the coal mine is the equity markets. So right now,
remaining cautious until we get some resolution because we are, like Prometheus mentioned,
we are seeing some slowdown, some stall in the equity markets. That's the fact that, you know, historically, when you see Bitcoin put in a 30
plus percent move to the downside, you know, historically, you don't not see equities also
see, you know, see a move to the downside or a catch up trade to the downside in equities.
You just you normally just do see it. There's very rare chances where
you don't see that, where you see the altcoin market, more so Bitcoin and ETH, right? Putting
these massive moves to the downside and equities just remain extremely elevated, kind of trading
around all-time highs. Historically, you see that catch-up trade in the equity markets where
it does take a month or two occasionally, just depending on timing. Sometimes it's a couple of weeks, sometimes it's a month, sometimes it's two months.
But ultimately, you do end up seeing a catch up trade to the downside in equities.
And that's what kind of has me a little more cautious here with trying to play, I guess,
a quote unquote, a bounce or trying to call a bottom in Bitcoin, ETH, and altcoins is the fact that equities remain elevated.
But definitely seeing that stall, this is a big week, right? We have FOMC, rate cut decision this
Wednesday. Usually these are choppy weeks, right? Monday, Tuesday, kind of just chop around.
Wednesday, you get the big volatility event, lower timeframe traders get rinsed.
And then usually we get that kind of, I guess you could say answer or direction a day or two following FOMC.
So pretty much just waiting around until then, not going to bother trying to play anything
to the long side here or the short side for that matter until we kind of come out of
that FOMC rate cut decision, get our volatility and see which direction the market actually picks.
But, you know, as far as Bitcoin is concerned, you know, below 93K, it's a little sketchy to
try to play anything. If they can get Bitcoin back above 93K, establish it up there.
You know, I think there's a possible chance
we could see a sustainable move to the upside,
whether that's a short,
like just a complacency bounce
or it's a bigger move.
I think that's what we can get.
But anything under 93K,
which we're dancing around now,
it's kind of like a no,
it's like an off limits for me. So I'm either looking for established price above 93K for Bitcoin. I'm open to playing some bounces,
whatever that may be. But until then, I'm looking for either a return to the lows or new lows.
And for me, that's pretty much dependent on what the equity markets do, right? If the equity markets just continue to grind and melt up from here, I think that kind of forces my hand in saying, okay, well, equities are remaining strong. We still have more room to go in this multi-year bull run. And then we can see sustained move out of Bitcoin and altcoins. But until then, my bias right now is looking for that catch-up trade to the downside in equities,
where if we do get that role in the equity markets,
I just don't see a world where equity markets begin to roll and Bitcoin and crypto are bottom just yet.
With that being said, I think that Bitcoin and altcoins are relatively much closer to bottoms than the equity market is, right?
So if equity markets begin to roll, sure, we get some downside, knee-jerk reaction to the downside out of the Bitcoin and altcoins.
But, you know, I think that those final plunges that I am looking for will be for buying, right?
looking for will be for buying, right? If we get a role in equities, everyone's going to be
extremely, extremely cautious and full of fear pretty much and not looking at the higher risk
beta assets where in reality, that might be the scam after all where equity markets finally start
to roll or have a larger pullback. And coming out of that is finally
a time for the higher risk assets to strive. And does it make logical sense? Not really.
But when I look at charts like Bitcoin dominance, Bitcoin dominance looks ready to
fall hard. In an environment where, in a Bitcoin and crypto pullback
time period, normally Bitcoin dominance is rising, right? But you're seeing Bitcoin dominance
not falling just yet, but looking, showing signs of exhaustion and of a local top. You're seeing
stuff like the ETH BTC chart, looking like it's trying to reclaim key territory. So charts like
that, as well as, you know, you're seeing the IWM start to creep into price discovery,
not there yet, kind of just dancing around all-time highs from 2021.
But all those three things are kind of signaling to me,
yep, I think there's room for downside.
However, coming out of that downside, I think it may be the play to start buying up these risk assets that we've
been waiting to run for the last year or two, and we finally see it when no one really expects it.
So that's kind of how I'm looking at it. Again, big week at Form C, so pretty much likely no
resolution or direction until probably after Wednesday. So kind of just sitting on my hands and just keeping an eye on the market until
then.
Hey man, are you keeping up with all coins during this period?
Like coins that you previously held or future releases?
Are you like viewing on chain volume flows or are you mainly just like,
just looking at equities?
Right now I have my watch list
because again i think if we do get this final role in this final plunge for bitcoin and all coins uh
it's it can be quick right and again i think a lot of these all coins are closer that even in bitcoin
to bottom just because the fact they've been beaten and battered for the last two years pretty
much so i do have my watch list of all coins that i will be looking
to bid if we get um that plunge lower uh mostly not really i'm not looking on chain at all right
now to be perfectly honest i'm kind of not really playing in that arena um looking more like you you
and tucker were talking about earlier revenue producing um uh digital assets and protocols that like actually have a working product, actually
make money, actually have real world use cases because we've seen, you know.
You know, it's crazy, Louis.
If Aave was a stock, it'd be going crazy.
I know.
Yeah.
Isn't that odd?
Isn't that odd?
Yeah.
If Aave and Hyperliquid were actually stocks, they would actually be chatting a lot harder than they did this year.
Yeah, it's just a result of the overall lack of liquidity in the markets right now.
And I think stuff like Aave, a little bit older, but makes money, has a real-world use case.
They're talking about releasing staking protocols for the ETFs and stuff like that. Like stuff like that makes money, has a
use case and will likely come out and kind of rise from the ashes. So, you know, so call it
once we get this final capitulation or if we're capitulated already, you know, moving into the
future, you know, the assets that have working products, make money,
you know, real-world use cases, like those will come out of all this and end up being the winners,
you know, very similar to the dot-com bubble, right? You had a bunch of different, you know,
anyone could just put a dot-com, you know, next to their stock and it ripped, right, during the
bubble. But when everything bursts and everything tanked, only the real future companies rose from the ashes
and ended up going on generational multi-decade runs,
which I think is still possible for all coins,
but it has to be the right ones.
So I have my list of watch lists and my buy zones and areas.
You know, the guys in the Discord all know,
know those levels we're looking for.
We'll be quick on the trigger to, to, to, to buy those if, and when we get the opportunity
to play those. But until then, just sitting on my hands, I do have some, some short exposure
to the equity market, maybe a little premature, you know, but I'm liking some, some downside
exposure and cash just in case we do get an unexpected roll i mean because let's
say like the rate cut on wednesday is pretty much priced in it's looking at like like a 90
probability of getting that rate cut uh and that's you know that's pretty much priced in already
right so let's say we get the rate cut and then jerome powell says some things the market don't
like uh you know all the good news is out already. All the good news is
kind of priced in. So unless we get some new major news catalyst, you know, we get the rate cut,
then what? Right. Like the market's already priced in a lot of this good news. You know,
again, Bitcoin putting a massive 35 plus percent drawdown. And historically, we see equities
follow that. So I think a lot of the good news is priced in the equity and historically we see equities follow that so i think a lot of the
good news is priced in in the equity market i think equities are due for a cool off period
um and if and when we get that i'll be playing that to the downside and also at the same time
you're looking to bid um uh all coins bitcoin and eath when the timing's right
i see we got Mar up here.
Mar, como estas, bro?
Dímelo.
Como estas, Eddie?
What's up, brother?
What's up, bro?
How was your weekend, man?
Working, man.
Like always.
I'm the... Did you go to Art Basel or any of that stuff?
No, man.
I felt the traffic leaving work.
But no, man.
I don't like art.
Every time I look at a painting, it just feels depressing.
So why do I want to be depressed, you know?
Yeah, well, sorry for the people that like art.
Yeah, man, everything good, brother. Everything good. One thing I do want to touch, man, that you've said, you've mentioned a few times for some of the people that probably don't get it.
When you said that, you know, basically a lot of the liquidity from old went to a prediction market.
And you're spot on, dude. You're spot on because you know a lot of
people say oh retail is broke that's why we don't have an old season and uh it's not correctly that's
not correct because uh if it was that way then you know we had tri-fi you, having a lot of runners, gold, catching a lot of liquidity.
Why?
Because that's investing, man.
That is investing.
And altcoins are not investing anymore.
It's gambling.
You buy an altcoin right now, you are gambling.
You're not investing.
That's just my opinion.
And that is why Bitcoin did pretty well, because people invested into Bitcoin, you know, and that is why, you know, all these markets, these gambling markets were more popular.
They were just a better product than altcoins, you know.
And for now, it's like what the gentleman said, Louie, you got to pick the right ones.
You got to make sure you pick the right ones.
And, you know, I do hold a few altcoins.
But I'll tell you what, man, this might be, I don't know, a crazy take.
But buying an altcoin right now, it's like betting on a horse,
and the horse race lasts us like a month.
Are you going to be able to sleep that month?
You're going to be looking at the horse to see if he's winning.
That's exactly what you're doing when you buy an altcoin right now.
You're gambling, man.
And that's just my take.
I know it sucks.
Look, I own a few.
But I did, back in May, my position on altcoins, I dropped like 80%, dude.
And I went back into try- five some stable coins and more Bitcoin because I just did not like I did not like what was going on and I was opening my eyes more and more and I'm with Provincius man I'm uh I'm not too bullish for two to 2026 yet you know it's uh I'm just it's know? It's time to
buy La La Wamba, bro.
Buy La La Wamba.
I'm just not going to be a sitting duck.
Buy La La Wamba.
Listen, I'm okay
being a sitting duck
with an investment like Bitcoin
and stocks, but I'm not
okay being a sitting duck with a
gambling asset. An asset that is just gambling.
Maybe, you know, you get it.
I don't know, but there's great altcoins out there.
It's just going to take some time.
Yeah, man.
A lot of studies.
Yeah.
You literally have to bet on the right horse.
On the right horse.
It has to be a flying horse, bro.
It has to be a crazy horse. it has to be a crazy horse one that's on drugs bro at the end
of the day all coins is a it's a product of gambling and it's not just it's not popular
mean coins were and and mean coins died out you know these uh prediction markets on fire
Mark, you have to say, you have to say that.
We're in the car, bro.
We got to say, we got to do the week.
We got to do the week.
Yeah, but you know, yeah, it's a tough market.
It's tough, man.
I'll give it to someone that could sleep at night
holding a big chunk of their portfolio on all coins man i will shake your hand
and i hope you make it you know and i'm you know but uh yeah it just
you got i gotta sleep at night man i'm almost 50 years old i can't afford to sleep bro
years old i can't afford to lose sleep bro
yeah i feel you on that man it's been a it's been a tough market there's some good some good times
are bound to come back man when when it's so over we're close to being so back but i'm gonna go
ahead and uh wrap up the stream now guys if you guys have been enjoying the last hour and a half
and you've enjoyed what we've been talking about here, we talked about TradFi, talked about crypto, local price action, our thoughts midterm, higher time frame stuff and all that good stuff.
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stuff interaction with our live audience and all of that so we have content for everyone whether it's visual with ta and all that uh or it's audio if you guys like podcast
style content you guys can check out market talk so we have things for everyone uh whether it's
free content whether it's premium content for those of you that like to trade on chain we do
have our very own trading terminal link to that is in our bio we
have some premium packages there as well and some other goodies incoming for that product specifically
so feel free to also follow that profile turn on bell notice and we'll see you all tomorrow at the
same time so with that being said thank you all so much for tuning in to Market Talk.
We'll see you all tomorrow.
And the spaces are recorded as usual.
And just in case you guys are coming in
and you're wondering,
hey, like, oh, Market Talk has been going on
already for over an hour.
I am now hosting Market Talk
with a new start time of 3.30 p.m. ESC
rather than 4.30 p.m. EST.
So we'll give it another week, week and a half for those that have started to come in at 4.30 p.m. EST.
The new time is now 3.30 p.m. EST.
And yeah, moving forward, that'll be the new start time for now at least.
So thank you all so much for tuning in whether you're
listening live right now or you're listening to the recording and uh i'll see you all on the next
one don't forget to check out our links and send us a dm if you have any questions and we'll get
back to you within 24 hours or you can message any of our affiliates you can message my personal
profile that's right here next to me that says King Wabi and yeah that's
pretty much it guys just want to give a shout out to my Lord Savior Jesus Christ for allowing me
another day of health the talk mark is with you all don't take any of this for granted and I'll
see you on the next one take care guys bye-bye Thank you.
