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Market Talk-100k btc incoming!? Bitcoin strategic reserve in Arizona?!
Recorded: April 28, 2025 Duration: 1:13:09Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the recent surge in Farcoin and Bitcoin's price action, highlighting growth trends across various altcoins and the potential for new all-time highs. The conversation also touched on market dynamics, institutional interest, and the importance of adapting strategies in a rapidly changing environment.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you
because there's only a man and a man's to is
fight It's been inside. I've got a crowd sitting out in the crowd with the All-Star Game fight.
Try your best to win the ball and one big time will tell from you when you're the one that's standing there.
You've reached the final event.
You're the best of all.
Nothing's gonna happen.
Kick you down.
You're the best of all. Oh, my God. Nothing's gonna ever keep you down You're the best You're the best You're the best
Nothing's gonna ever keep you down
I'm the best of all
Nothing's gonna ever keep you down
I'm the best
You drop
You never stop
I can't give up
Until you waste the time.
You're the best in town.
Listen to that song.
I'm feeling a little bit more.
You got the pair of fingers.
You're the best of all.
My name.
I'm the best of all.
You just want everything to know. I'm the best of all. What is going on guys?
Hope you all had a fantastic weekend.
Man oh man, what an exciting weekend it has been guys.
What an incredible start to the week really.
Farcoin once again hitting new uh fresh local highs i think it was yesterday
far coin hit 124 just like four cents more than the high that we hit on friday but nonetheless
guys i do like what i'm seeing some other leaders i've also uh been doing quite well like suey
shout out to those in the discord we were talking about that one
when it was just really doing nothing at two dollars and you know sailor did buy today and
you know sailor does have a habit of buying local tops and all that sort of stuff but
i don't really think the market at this point is so concerned with Saylor being the only notional buyer.
At least that's what the narrative is on CT, that he's the only one buying.
I think there are more people buying than just Saylor, right?
You kind of think to yourself, if one of the most richest people in the world, Elon Musk, is on Twitter,
all it really takes is a few of these
other billionaires on Twitter to click the buy button on BTC, and that can give our alts more
room to go to the upside. But BTC dominance is just incredibly strong. And we've been talking
about here on this show that charting BTC dominance dominance is just the fool's errand we are now approaching
95k btc and souls barely at 150 eth is range bound um between 1700 to 1800 and just the disparity
between the market that btc has and its notional buyers compared to all coins, the gap is bigger than ever.
And I'm sure BTC dominance will curl to the downside a little bit.
But so far, this cycle, from what we've seen, when I talk about cycle, guys, I'm talking
about the actual bottom a few weeks after FTX collapsed.
bottom a few weeks after FTX collapsed. And although I do think that cycles right now,
or some people believe that cycles right now don't really exist and it's more of a super cycle,
these quick periods of risk on and risk off, I still think 15, 16K provides us clear data points
as far as what's happened over the last few years and what the price action
on majors have told us, specifically alt-BTC pairs. And what they've taught us is that
these drawdowns on BTC dominance, they usually only happen within a couple of weeks, right?
We had that one period in Q1 of 23, in Q4 of 2023, I think a little bit during Q1,
in Q4 of 2023, I think a little bit during Q1, and more recently Q4 of last year, right?
Where you had things like Pepe going in the year 15 billion market cap.
You had a bunch of AI stuff on Sol, literally go to the billions.
We had multiple tickers on Sol in the AI sector that went to fucking billions same thing with base with
virtuals which I think virtuals hit like five bill or just under five bill and we also had AI
XBT hit just under one bill but nonetheless what I'm trying to say here is things went to billions
without BTC Dom losing its bull market structure.
So what we consider alt season right now, it's been more tapered than people want to expect.
And I still think that, not just me, but multiple people that have talked on these shows,
is that unless easing occurs in some fashion,
our expectations should be tapered, right?
And if you see during this recent run-up, you have high caps like Hype,
other high caps like Virtuals, even things like Pengu are up multiple hundreds of percentage points off of the lows,
where there are some of these other low caps,
they haven't really budged at all whatsoever.
And it's quite shocking, really.
Just the, I guess you can call it a hot ball of money, has gotten smaller and smaller and
smaller.
And the next event that people are looking forward to is the next FOMC, or the one after
that, when the Fed cuts rates.
That's really the next sort of massive liquidity event.
And for those that kind of want to refresh, of course, I won't really bore anybody with
the history lesson here, but Powell cut rates last September for the first time and the
market absolutely started sending soon after that within a couple of weeks.
So history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. And we can talk about the dollar a little
bit, even though I feel like at this point everybody already knows that the dollar
is going to the downside. DXY is going to the downside. M2, that global liquidity index,
whatever people want to refer to it as, is trickling up to the upside. But yet, U.S. money
supply is flat. And Prometheus here kind of laid the plan with that. For our altcoins,
for really altcoin space in general, it's the U.S. money supply that actually matters.
And if we want more of a solid metric on how valid that is, just take a look at Moonshot.
Moonshot is basically an app similar to Coinbase, Robinhood, and people can buy shitcoins that are really only available on DEXs with a click of a button.
It has a nice UI and all that stuff.
And back in December, it actually flipped Coinbase.
It actually flipped Robinhood and became the top app in the finance store.
And most of its volume, most of the volume that that moonshot was doing came from shitters that
were built on soul right and all that was during the december and early january uh hype and
speculation with this market now what happened after that volumes across all these platforms
started to die down right after u.s money supply started to become flat so the u.s is actually very very
important when it comes to a metric of liquidity and of course that directly affects our all coins
right all coins as a whole and as much as btc and its strength is apparent to pretty much every
individual that plays market at this point, right?
Especially when we compare it to U.S. equity still being down 10 plus percent.
BTC isn't a different asset class of its own when it comes to altcoins.
So BTC can look damn good, but it doesn't necessarily mean that XYZ altcoin has a catch-up trade, right?
I mean, just take a look at something like the SUI-SOUL pair.
That chart looks absolutely bullish.
Look at the SOUL-ETH pair.
Looks absolutely bullish.
But if you look at SOUL-USD, it has a lot of work to do, right?
Same thing with ETH-USD.
Both of those pairs went through absolute hell over the last few months, getting onslaught after onslaught.
Sol had a bunch of supply being dumped from the unlocks and also PumpFun, full stack genieing their entire stack. is when you have these volatile movements on these assets without ZRP and QE,
these bottoms take a while to form.
And even after the bottom, right, when you usually have that spring,
it takes a lot of accumulation before that next leg up.
And something that I was mentioning during our afternoon Discord call is,
you know, if we compare a dump similar to the July 2021 dump where we nuked from 35k to 27k,
I think it was in one candle on the 19th or on the 20th, and within two weeks, within two,
three weeks, we were back at 50k. But yet if you look at a similar dump, right, in August of 2023, we nuked from 31K to 24K in one candle, and we were essentially doing nothing for multiple weeks on end.
If you guys remember that death range, and that was when Rollbit, Unibot, and all those other things were trending on chain.
They called it Gamblefy, right. That was a huge narrative back then.
We basically nuked from the same levels. We bottomed at the same levels, but one bottomed
out quicker than the other. The reason for that was in 21, we had quantitative easing,
a bunch of money printing, and also zero interest rate policies. That wasn't really the case in 2023.
We were actually hiking rates.
I think Powell hiked one more time during the August or September FOMC.
And that was essentially it, right?
So cycle has been different.
Cycle definitely has been different for all coins for all coins um
so it is going to take some time for uh for these alts to actually take their uh their their next
leg up but again we do have to respect the ones that are actually showing strength like a sui
like a hyper liquid um and of course, Farcoin, right?
It's usually always the new tickers and majors that end up leading the market, right?
So that's pretty much it, guys, for my opening statement.
I'm here joined by Prometheus, Spread, Chill.
Louie, I sent you another co-host invite.
Unfortunately, Donnie is feeling sick, so he's not able to join me today.
I hope he gets better, man.
The spaces that we've been hosting over the last six months have been absolutely fire.
So first and foremost, I want to thank all of you that are tuning in right now, whether
you're tuning in live to the show right now, whether you're listening to the spaces and
recordings.
I want to thank you all for coming back to market
talk hosted by me wabi and brought to you by because bitcoin spaces are recorded as always so
without further ado we're going to go ahead and get the show started and before we do guys before
we start cooking and ranting and bantering about all things crypto markets, price action, and my favorite dubious speculation.
If you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space.
You might be asking, Wabi, what's the best way to show some love to the space?
What's the best way that I can show you that, hey, I really love what you guys do at BecauseBitcoin
and I really want to support what you guys do
How can I show that appreciation? Well, I've got the answer
You guys can go ahead and click the spaces tab and once you do that
You'll see a little link above our profile pictures that says x comm slash I slash spaces
You guys can do a couple of things that doesn't much effort, doesn't take that much time, and, of course, helps please our tech overlords.
You guys can smash up the heart button, smash up the like button,
and, of course, please, please, please retweet and repost the Spaces link,
as it does help us get more into the algorithm,
helps get more eyes and ears to the show,
helps bring more winners of the brand the show, helps bring more winners
of the brand.
And of course, I'd be forever grateful.
You guys always do a great job of liking the space and also repost and retweeting it.
So, man, without further ado, I'm going to go ahead and pass the mic over to Louie.
You know, it's been a while since since i've actually had uh someone else other
than prometheus from our team join join me up on these spaces i feel like all of our team is it's
just locked up into market check but anytime i can get one of y'all into uh the spaces it's always
nice to kind of have that that that catch up that catch up conversation i think the last time i was on
market check was when um i think btc was at like 88 87 or something like that and then eth was at
23 2400 and i was giving some of my targets targets hit it's been a couple weeks after
and now um you know we're we're back to actually having some sweet volatility to the
upside and you know we all have our bias right some people are more naturally bearish some people
are more naturally bullish but if markets have taught us anything is that during a ranging during
a during a trending bullish environment that is actually where most people
get to make money like most of the money that people will make in the time that they're active
in markets it's probably going to be during a bull market not a bear market or even worse a
choppy market with no trend but nonetheless my brother louis what's going on man great to have
you uh on the show today.
Dude, how was your weekend?
We can start off like that, man.
How was your weekend, dude?
What's going on, Wabi?
It's been a while since I've been on one of these.
It's good to be back.
We just pile so much time into the Discord, the morning, afternoon calls and market check.
It's tough to ramble all day.
I love crypto.
I love markets.
I could literally talk it all day.
But man, oh man, coming to the end of the day, I got four, five, six hours worth of talking about markets under my belt.
It's not the easiest thing coming up here and doing it all over again.
But always happy to come on to these spaces.
We get such good traction on these.
Swabby does an amazing job.
So shout out to him.
Shout out to everyone else on the panel.
Some names I haven't spoken
to in a while. Good to see you guys still out there doing the good work. But yeah, my
weekend was good. It was actually my birthday weekend. 29 years young this weekend. So yeah, I enjoyed some time with friends, had a nice weekend away,
but we're back at it. It's Monday and back to the markets, right? The markets are always calling
my name. But yeah, I mean, across the board over the last couple of weeks, we've seen very constructive price action, in my opinion.
Equities, crypto, pretty much everything.
And that was coming after a pretty brutal three-month span of time, pretty much since the inauguration back in January, we've pretty much been down
to sideways in a very grueling pullback and reaccumulation, which is now obvious,
but it wasn't obvious at the time. And now we're starting to make strides and exit that time period on the chart.
Bitcoin pushing back inside its previous old all-time high range.
Really liking what I'm seeing as far as the daily timeframes concerned.
We've closed the daily back inside lost market structure.
the daily back inside lost market structure. Six days today will be our seventh daily candle
close, which is in just about three hours. Looking like we're going to close back inside
our range that we lost back in February. And to me, that's a very bullish sign, right?
Many people expecting a pullback after a big move into an underside retest of
lost structure. I also wouldn't be surprised if we saw a pullback or still see a pullback.
But in general, the last six, seven days remaining the daily price candles, respecting the range,
gaining price acceptance back inside the range.
It really feels like we're going to re-enter some sort of a bull drop scenario
or continued squeeze higher on Bitcoin.
Just pretty much going off the daily candles.
Very simple stuff.
And we've seen bitcoin do this time and
time again you know put in a big move kind of catch everyone off sides catch everyone catches
everyone off guards um and everyone kind of waiting for that pullback anticipating that pullback
wanting to use that pullback as a way to get positioned into the market as it was a
little too scary at the lows for them um and normally what you see is you know bitcoin continue
just to bull drop higher a lot of local volatility um but continues to grind higher and continues on
its bullish leg uh kind of my base case right now, kind of my base case,
always going to be prepared for some sort of pullback, right? We've had a pretty big move
from last week. So always expecting some sort of pullback, but while anticipating and mentally
being prepared for that, I really wouldn't be surprised if we continued to see, you know, grinding price action or eventually another big move to the upside higher inside our range.
Right. So, you know, Bitcoin doing its thing, reclaiming market structure, and we're starting to see, you know, altcoins and even ETH start to follow a bit.
you know, altcoins and even ETH start to follow a bit.
Obviously, not as much as far as ETH is concerned.
You're seeing the glimmers in the altcoin market of the strong coins.
Obviously, we mentioned Farcoin lobby, extremely strong.
I'd say Pepe has been holding up very well.
And if you were, you know, if you stuck around during the tough times over the last
couple months and use that time as opportunities, right?
And what I mean by that is, although the market was down at the end of the day, all we had
was assets at discount, right?
So what I was preaching to the Discord and our guys for the last couple months is,
I know things look crappy, I know things are shitty,
but we got to use this time as opportunity, right?
So if you took the time and you put in the work when it wasn't really all that fun over the last couple months, whether it's accumulating new projects
or adding to your conviction bags,
you should be sitting quite well at this point in time.
And that's what we've been doing, right? That's what we've been doing over at the Discord,
as well as myself, my personal book. And it's paying dividends, right? You're here during the
tough times, nine out of 10 times, you're going to be able to sit back during times like these
and kind of let the market do the work for
you. So really liking what I'm seeing across the board. And I think this bullish price action
continues, Wavi. Well, man, first and foremost, I want to wish you a happy belated birthday, man. I really do.
And assets at a discount is right.
I think we all know at this point, right?
Like, if you've been in crypto for more than two years, three years,
you know that BTC is perpetually up only against practically any asset that's tradable to be frank um and also like if you've been in
crypto for more than one cycle you know the the the clear buyer for btc is now these large market
money funds and at some point you'll have these funds moving markets out of money markets right like people that
um you know they like to hold a bunch of yen hold a bunch of euros basically the money markets at
some point uh all that total addressable market going into btc could have it go to like 250 000
that is a clear bet and a clear bet is btc flipping gold in the next like
10 years or so at least i think it is in the next 10 years i know some people think
two three years i'm going to be a bit more conservative um and say 10 honestly i don't
think it's going to happen as as quick as people think right I know people, they like to draw all this hype
and speculation whenever there's a new buyer.
In 2021, your new buyers were publicly traded companies
like Tesla and also MicroStrategy.
In this cycle, it's BlackRock and Fidelity
and things like that, right?
I think the quote-unquote cycle after next cycle, or more specifically, not the next having after that, right?
Like, people buying BTC at $70,000, $75,000, $80,000 will be looked at as geniuses, right? Like a 10X trade in like eight years
is a pretty solid trade, right?
Like I don't even think like Google or Microsoft
or any of those other companies
pulled off that amount of gain since 2015.
So I think it's a pretty banger trade. Like even just
moving a savings account strictly over to BTC would be pretty good if you don't intend on
using that savings account for a fat minute. But man, what are you thinking about Farcoin here,
Louie? What do you think?
Do you think there's a possibility of Farcoin going into price discovery
if BTC kind of does the same thing that it did last year
where it almost pokes its all-time high and then just goes back to its range,
which, I mean, if we look at the range that BTC has set,
it wouldn't really shock me if BTC goes to like 102, 102K,
102K, 103K, excuse me,
and has a retest at like 88, 89,000
and just does that for a couple of months.
Do you think Fartcoin could be an asset that like,
I'm calling it an asset,
but what I'm trying to say is, man,
is BTC 100K plus equals fartcoin and price discovery.
Hot air rises.
Flatulence is the new money.
I mean, look, as silly as it is, the market clearly has chosen its next champion meme coin, in my opinion, and that's Farcoin.
It couldn't be more obvious.
The price action we've seen off the lows in March, it's clearly leading the market.
As funny as that may sound, it's true, right? So I think it's been strong.
It was leading the crypto market, led this rally off the lows. It's continuing to be strong.
And I think it's down the road, it's going to continue to show this strength, right?
Like an asset doesn't usually go from showing strength, being a leader, to just not overnight, right?
As far as the chart's concerned, very simply put, coming into, you mentioned it earlier, Wabi, we made a slightly higher high today.
But we're at a big level on the chart, in my opinion,
which is like $1.24, $1.25.
It's a big level if you're looking at the chart.
But if Farcoin can successfully flip $1.25,
I see no reason why we don't revisit the old all-time high, which is, I think, like 275.
So that's what I would watch for, right?
That's what I would watch for.
You start to see Farcoin trading above that $125 level, not much more market structure to the left of you other than your run to the
all-time highs. And I really do think, you know, Farcoin's been moving very well, been strong, but
I think things start to get very crazy and a lot faster if Farcoin's trading above $1.25. So set your price alerts, do whatever you want to do.
But yeah, I mean, I really do think, you know,
this is one that's, you know, looking back months down the line,
it's going to like, people are going to be like,
you got in Farcoin early, you got in Farcoin at even prices now, right?
Like a dollar, you know, like, oh, you got Farcoin at
a dollar? Like that's insane. For us crypto natives, you know, this is nothing new for us.
But if things get as crazy as I expect and retail actually does return to the crypto markets,
I think Farcoin is going to be like that big headline meme coin name alongside Pepe that, you know, probably mint some millionaires, probably see, you know, headlines on CNBC.
And it continues to be strong.
And I know Donnie's on here a lot.
I was lucky enough to get in on based Farcoin early.
Right.
And that's how I'm getting my exposure to the far
coin trade been proving to be you know a great play um and i think both are going to continue
to do very well okay i'll pass it on over to mr spread man i know uh the time zone difference is
a pretty wild man spread what's going on brother how was your weekend thanks for popping back on bruv it's gonna be great uh talking markets with you man it's been uh guys
almost two years now man i think the first time you popped into the space was uh august of 2023
during uh during that nuke marathon that we had i think we hosted spaces for like eight hours that day man i think it was
actually a bit before that i think it was because already in august i had some conversations with
jackie's with you popped to i think 30
and we dropped towards 24 and we ranged for about i don't know a few few weeks between 25 and 30 25
and 30 and finally broke about 30 and after my neutral period i became again back bullish so first of all i want to say
happy birthday to louis man i cannot wait to see you at the 30s club so enjoy and i really really
wish you all the best from this side of the pond no no no don't be sad believe me life really starts
after 30 you'll see and I really want to wish also,
also want to wish to all the health in the world
and I really hope it's nothing serious.
About the markets.
Last few, I would say three weeks almost
since I turned bearish on S&P 500 in indexes.
And now I'm neutral on them above like S&P 500,
about 5,500.
But the last few weeks were a little
bit i would say they give me a bit of other perspective on the market and because of the
thread i wrote i also have a different positioning this does not mean that i was bearish on bitcoin
market structure never gave me a reason to be bearish on it when I mean
bearish I mean higher time frames we were in the correction after the rally that we had
since we topped around 106 107 we just corrected and until recently and I mean recently I think
it was last week when we broke above 85 that was the first sign that we might print the first higher low and now with 90 to 93k
behind us i think the bottom the local bottom is in but going forward i'm not going to have the
same positioning like i was thinking to have because of all the uncertainty that i see i see
some cracks under the surface on us economy the bond market was really really weird all over the
place with yields up dollar down so a lot of things have changed in
my opinion and the things that changed we're gonna see maybe in q3 q4 so instead of just
you know being full dgen mode my plan going forward is to accumulate as much cash as i can
a few weeks ago like in that's actually in the last eight to ten weeks i exited most of my altcoins
i exited luckily also big positions from mantra to bitcoin and also to to usdt so now i'm without
10 in cash and most of my position in bitcoin i still have some solana radium injective and
also still a bag of mantra because i was not lucky enough to sell
everything i still believe in the guys regardless of what happened there um but all in all like i
just said i just want to also say it in in spaces because i know that thousands of people read that
post that i made that is in the pin post um in the next quarters three four quarters next until 2026 in the first quarters
i'm looking to raise cash so to the best of my skills to trade again and i have been trading
heavily uh s p 500 but also on the stable coin so i'm gonna look to exit 90 percent of my alcoin
position so i'm gonna do it systematically. I'm going to do it gradually.
If until like a few months ago,
I was thinking, you know,
to just hold and do this position,
maybe until next year, etc.
Now my new goal is to just exit most of my positions.
I still have, I mean,
I accumulated a large position of Bitcoin,
so I don't need to accumulate more Bitcoin for this cycle.
I always want to have more Bitcoin.
But for this cycle going forward, until first quarter of 2026,
I'll be looking, of course, also if the market gods will, you know, play our tune.
And hopefully we're going to have Bitcoin dominance also topping.
And Bitcoin going above 105.
By the way, I see a lot of people on twitter never going above the daily
the daily chart go on weekly and see if we ever had a weekly close above 105 and you will see
that's why i'm mentioning this so hopefully we're gonna have a weekly close above 105
and if we're gonna have that after that maybe some topping on on top on on bitcoin which will
allow bitcoin dominance to fall and that
money to roll over to like medium caps and small caps etc so we can have like a broader market
all season short term i like i like what's happening i had a very very simple chart
above 74 000 i was bullish on bitcoin short long term i mean higher time frame short term i was
bearish because we were in a bearish structure, like I said.
But now, since we regained above 92, I'm bullish again.
So going forward, hopefully, and fingers crossed,
I think we're going to see that in the second part of May.
Bitcoin was going to print a new all time high.
If, you know, Trump's tantrums and tariffs
are not going to hit the markets again.
And after that, we can have at least some pockets of strength.
Solana rallying again.
We already can see some leaders like you guys mentioned.
We can see, as silly as it sounds like Louis said,
Fartcoin doing what he's doing.
So strength is strength, man.
Even if it comes from some names that just sound silly
when they roll out of the tongue.
But I'm a trader. I don't give a shit.
So if I can see some
opportunity to trade and gather more stable coin you know and those profits to roll them over in
next years and again to more bitcoin i'll do it for me 95 of the altcoins represent nothing else
but just another way to farm more bitcoin you know i'm not a billionaire i always need more ways how to increase my
revenue streams or how to increase my fiat stack or my stablecoin stack so i can accumulate more
bitcoin i don't have an infinite stream of money like i don't have a printer like powell or like
sailor so i need to be creative i need to be flexible and this is my plan going forward and one of my favorite things from that thread that I post
I posted is I think this is my mantra for for the next quarters
I rather move like water than break like glass so this is my plan going forward
spread what cracks are you seeing in the U.S. economy man
spread what cracks are you seeing in the u.s economy man
so um it's not directly to this economy because i was one of the biggest and i'm still one of the
biggest i would say antagonizers of the people who banged the drum of the recession since
2020 and they were calling for recession 2020 2023 2024 so you know i even have
like a linked linked tweet and i think i reached the ninth post where i asked where is the recession
but i follow in an indicator from bank of america which very very in a very raw shape i'm going to explain it very briefly investors just ask for more yield to hold
high corporate like not toxic but high risky bonds right so they ask for more yield because
of that and the spread just goes wider so that has some levels on the chart and when it goes above
four it does not indicate a recession,
but those are just some signs that maybe we're not in such a risk of sentiment.
And this is for the first time since 2022 when we are going from,
I mean, the direction is from like we went from two to four,
and now, okay, we retraced a little bit because the tariff four is not there anymore.
However, this is the first time when we're going above four, and above four if you read that thread it says that we should look out so in no way in hell i'm i was bearish on bitcoin and i'm not bearish on bitcoin right now but my only position
is just i just want to raise more more cash and to come back to your question um for example i did
my best in one night i think i stayed more than eight hours to go on clarna to go
on different those loan platforms that you guys have like buy now and pay later and i i couldn't
find like any like any transparency credit card loans are through the roof the delinquencies are
through the roof and i think one of the biggest problems that we can have going
forward is that powell is between a rock and a hard place i mean i have to give it to the guy
you know like in 2022 i also thought that he's not gonna do it i also thought that he's not gonna
have a soft landing but look where we are now they reduced the federal reserve net balance sheet by
two trillion dollars and because of i I mean, even with that happening,
still Bitcoin went from 15K to 107.
S&P 500 went from the low 4,000s to almost $6,000, right?
And the economy was doing fine.
Inflation got the boot on its neck.
Unemployment was around four and it's still around four,
even with all that happening.
So the problem going forward is that, for example,
you ask me, what else do I see?
Not necessarily a crack, but some weakness.
After the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed,
and first the public bank collapsed,
you know that I was like following the KRE, right?
So the regional bank CTF know that i was like following the carry right so the regional bank ctfs immediately after that happened federal reserve and fomc
just put in place a program called btfp through which banks could have tapped some liquidity
pockets well that ended in 2024 and until march 2025 they had to repay that. Well, now if there are going to be some cracks
because consumers are not going to be so willing to, I don't know,
pay off their debts or companies will default, etc.,
that liquidity pocket is not there anymore to help distressed banks,
especially the regional banks.
The problem which I see right now is that the consequences of the tariffs
are not going to be this quarter,
and most likely the earnings for the last quarter are still going to show good.
In the next few days, we're going to have big companies reporting.
I think Meta reports this week, Amazon reports this week,
Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, but also a bunch of regional banks.
So most likely we're not going to have problems now, but this is the reason why I'm not bearish now.
This is the reason why I'm raising cash for the next quarters.
Most likely I'm not going to sell the absolute top.
I don't know. I'm going to just have this meat of the move.
I'll let others worry for the tops.
But all in all, Wabi, there are some things that changed in the last few months that were not there and another thing because i was speaking about fed
through 2023 and also 2024 i was explaining and i was like screaming from the rooftops that a cut
was not going to be bearish and we all saw what happened when Federal Reserve was cutting through 2024.
They were cutting because they were going from hiking to normalizing.
When that was happening since 1980, the markets went bullish.
S&P 500, I think, was an average from the first cut until one year, about 12-15%.
And the same thing happened now the problem is that since since all these
tariff worries happened and since we lost the market structure on the sap 500 and we see also
that indicator that i spoke about and you know kre is also not looking good the big banks also
they're not looking good when i mean i mean the etfs are not looking good now if if federal reserve is cutting i don't know if it's
going to be as bullish as it was before all these worries and before all the other cracks started to
emerge most likely federal reserve is cut by the way they're not going to cut in may if they got
in may it's a surprise i don't think it's possible they're going to spook the markets and markets are
going to have even more uncertainty so most likely they're not going to cut the bond market is not
showing so the three-month bond deal is not showing any cut now in may my my projection i think
september is going to be the first card but we shall leave and we shall see so now the difference
before difference the difference compared to what would have happened before is that if
power was copying before we had all these changes like in the negative way the markets
would have perceived those cuts as bullish like going more to normalizing like look what's
happening in europe so europe and the european central bank was cutting because they wanted to
have like an easier credit cycle well this is not happening in the united states united states is
too strong of an economy for federal reserve power to cut. And that's why I said that Powell is like between a rock and a hard place.
So all these elements together, not necessarily make me bearish, but make me more defensive.
And they just put me in a stance to raise cash in the next one year, 16 months, etc.
So I can buy whenever something is going to really crack.
I can.
Man, well, I'm glad you didn't say anything like unemployment.
I sort of think now that the economy for like the average American citizen is the gig economy man like i don't think we'll ever see
historic unemployment um until like agi and ubi goes uh fully automatic dude um
companies like lyft uber postmates amazon like it's essentially for every american there's like two or three jobs
um but yeah that macro stuff is like weighing over my head man uh prometheus if there's anything
that you want to touch upon as far as what spread or what spread said or give any of your thoughts
feel free to do so man yeah when it comes to macro dude like god i kind of
just and it's just it's not in my area of expertise man sometimes things look cheap
sometimes things look expensive things were expensive in january they looked cheap in early
april and here we are um but go ahead, Prometheus.
Oh, no, bro, you're good.
Yeah, I mean, everybody has their facets and avenues within how we operate within the boundaries of the market, right?
And I always tell people if you're able to expand your knowledge in the market, all you're really doing is you're increasing the window in what you're able to look through, right?
in the market, all you're really doing is you're increasing the window and what you're able to
look through. Right. So, um, you know, I'll be the first one to admit, like, I'm, I'm not the
guy to go to when it comes to, you know, like soul on chain. Like I basically no edge, um,
with soul on chain, but I mean, I would love to touch what on what Mr. Spread has to say
real quick before I got to go here. I mean, I'm in a super similar
camp. I've been saying on these spaces for a while now that being cautiously optimistic is
most likely the best way to approach these next few months, especially in kind of the tentative state and spot that the the
economy is in right now and with some of the data that's coming down the pipeline
it is flashing you know it's flashing signals to to everybody to be cautious
like you know if you look at PMI numbers, if you look at, you know, you dive into why CPI actually
ticked down on the last print, you know, you'd mentioned the unemployment.
I mean, you didn't want to hear about it, but, you know, unemployment's kind of at that
threshold number.
And if we get too much more of a tick up, then, you know, God forbid people lose their
jobs and we see a recession.
But, you know, we're at some key, key levels.
And one of those numbers within CPI specifically that really was the major, you know, cause for CPI to tick down in the manner that it did was a massive reduction in the services sector.
And if you go and you look at the U.S. economy, specifically post-COVID, our entire economy
has been driven by the services sector. And seeing that tick down in this latest CPI print is screaming that we're having a significant
slowdown in growth, right?
You know, everybody had, if you just look at the number, the CPI number for face value,
I mean, sure, seemingly it looks okay.
But once you dig into the inner workings of it and what's underneath the hood, you kind
of pull back a little bit and you kind of are like,
whoa, you know, this is not necessarily as good as how, you know, some of these,
how a lot of people are perceiving it and how some people are talking about it.
And we also, as well, you know, with the broader global economic economy, you know, we have a very, very small window right now for Trump to figure some shit out.
Because otherwise, those the fears that we've been trying to price in over these past 30 days start to actually come to fruition.
Like things start to get expensive. Um,
you know, and the United States citizens purchasing power, you know, is greatly reduced.
Um, you know, it's, it's just not, it's like now is the time where if there's any time to do it for Trump to come step into the, into the fold and, and actually,
you know, put some plan of action in place and not have it be like, oh, we've had a hundred people
come to talks. Well, where, where are these deals at? You know, you haven't mentioned one that's
actually, you know, that's actually come to a conclusion.
That's that's the whole thing right now. And and with Bitcoin specifically, I mean, structurally,
you know, in the long run, I do agree. You know, we talked about this on Market Check earlier today,
but holding an asset like Bitcoin and from a saturation perspective, Bitcoin has not reached its peak
saturation levels. And so it's obviously a great asset to hold in the long run. But I think in this
kind of short term window that we've seen with this most recent run up, you had a few factors
that kind of culminated that allowed what I believe to be the perceived strength was you had a few factors that kind of culminated um that allowed what i believe to be
you know the perceived strength was you had sailor buying which you know you think he bought like
would buy like 15 000 bitcoin or something um there was massive negative funding and
you saw a huge pop in oi and market makers really seized their opportunity to liquidate
more shorts than we've seen liquidated in a seven-day time frame since the beginning of this
bull run since the lows um and so you kind of had a you know a nice window of opportunity to the upside here, but we are coming into a key structural level at 96, 97K where there's a huge sell wall.
And if you're a bull, you really got to get above it.
Otherwise, to me, it screams complacency.
screams complacency. And, you know, I would hate to say, but, you know, coming back down
in the broader scheme in relation to, you know, the global economic environment,
you know, down to 66K is not off the table. And if we, that's not including if things get nasty.
Um, and, and if we, that's not including if things get nasty.
So, you know, bulls, you got to put up, right?
I think 84 K is the lowest you can go, uh, from a structural standpoint.
And if you really start to lose 84 K, then to me, you're just bleeding off.
Uh, and there's no real sustained buyer in the market.
Uh, if you lose the 84k level. So some things that I'm
viewing right now, and I'm in the same camp as Mr. Spread, right? There are some cracks that are
showing and you best not be ignorant of those signs that are flashing in your face right now.
And if, you know, like Wabi had mentioned, macro is not his thing,
and there's nothing wrong with that. But I always recommend everybody open up and try to expand your
toolbox as much as you can. And, you know, instead of just taking for, you know, what people say here
on CT, like me included at face value, go and look at the numbers yourselves, go and figure out what
they are, figure out what they mean, you mean. Figure out how they actually paint a picture for the economy.
What is the data actually telling you?
Become a better trader.
Become better and utilize your God-given gifts and blessings to gifts and blessings to be able to, you know, uh, think freely and to,
and to choose and go and, you know, and build yourself. So that's kind of what I got on the
table right now. Um, you got some key levels that you got to get through and you got some key levels
that you got to hold, you know, S and P showing some weakness at that 5,500-ish region. I would
and am still in the camp that I would be shocked if you see new all-time highs on the spooze
by the end of the year. The pricings and the valuations that we're pricing in when the S&P was at 6,000 was like as premium as premium can get.
So at best, I think you enter an arranging environment as the markets try to figure out
where to go from here. But I think new lows are most certainly on the table. So I'm kind of a
little, I'm a little bearish right now and I would love to be proved wrong.
Jeez, this is entertaining, man.
You're bearish and I'm bullish?
That is extremely entertaining, man.
Let's see what happens.
Let's see what happens.
Like I said, man, I honestly, the most, because if you really understand how the markets work,
right, and for, if we were to set new lows and really go into a bad environment, like
from an ethical standpoint, like it pains me to be bearish, right?
Because that means people would potentially lose their jobs and, you know, those are people's
life savings and retirement and yada, yada.
So I would love to be, I would love to be wrong.
Let me ask you a question, man.
Would you put any credence on like, you know,
SPX having a draw on over 20% same thing with the NASDAQ in six weeks,
the VIX being elevated above 60 for multiple trading days, be indicative of like
a long-term low, sort of how the end carry trade low was a bottom for a couple of months also?
Yeah, I mean, structurally too, and Tommy and I've kind of talked about this a lot,
but we could most certainly be entering into a new volatility regime, which I've talked about at,
you know, at length. But yeah, I mean, those VIX levels specifically have historically
marked, you know, significant lows for, you know, generally for anywhere from a year to three to four years. Right. So, but you also have to
understand the, how, you know, the VIX, what is the makeup of the VIX and actually what goes into
the measure of it. And if, you know, and I'm just like, I'm just kind of, you know, spitballing here,
but if you have, if we enter into, you know,
because the makeup of the markets and, and the, and fundamentally how the global economy works
is changing. Like it has changed, um, whether people like to admit it or not. You know, and Trump's stance has very much so been that,
you know, he wants to bring manufacturing back to America, right? But if you go and you talk to
any 18 year old, any 20 year old, nobody wants to do that, you know, monotonous, you know,
robotic brain off shit where you're doing the same repetitive
task over and over and over again. Like if you look at the jobs in America, I'm kind of going
off like way out, but right now I'll just finish it real quick. But if you go and you look at like
the US ag, the people that actually are working on the farms in the United States, we outsource
70% of all the ag jobs in California to Hispanics.
You know, and so I'm like, the fundamental changing and the underlying and underpinning
And the underlying and underpinning of the global markets is changing.
of the, you know, global markets is changing.
And we are entering into potentially a new regime, which is one that we have not seen in our lifetimes, potentially.
Right. And it's something to put on the table.
I'm not saying that, you know, we're in certainty going one way or the other.
that, you know, we're in certainty going one way or the other, one thing's going to play out
specifically, you know, but it's something to kind of keep on, keep in your mind and keep on the
table and kind of have it in your back pocket and think, okay, if volatility becomes well supplied
and you have a fundamental shift and movement in the foundation and the underlying of the global markets,
what makes us think that we can't have VIX at historically high levels for prolonged periods of time?
That's just kind of how I am viewing it right now. And volatility, you know, people look at it as market certainty or uncertainty. It's that's not really what it is. But, you know, you could let's you could vaguely say that's what it is.
vaguely say that's what it is.
And if the, you know, markets are largely uncertain for the next 12 months over what
may potentially occur, not what is occurring, what makes us think that we can't have a super
high, you know, heightened vol regime?
Anyways, I'm probably talking, you know, Greek to a bunch of people,
but I'm going to get off my soapbox.
Joe, what's going on, brother?
I'll pass the mic over to you, man.
What are your thoughts on the current discussion?
What's up, guys?
I appreciate it.
I appreciate you having me back again.
Look, last few weeks have been, have treated me well.
You know, I really agree with what a lot of what Louie was saying.
You know, it just in terms of, Hey, we've,
we've made a huge move off off the,
what I feel to be is the bottom at, at 74, five we're up about 30're up about 30%. And it's reasonable to think that
here we cool off a bit. Maybe we consolidate as the most bullish scenario.
Initially last week, and I tweeted about this, that I didn't think that we would get back into
the range that we were in in Q4 and Q1 on the first try.
But lo and behold, Bitcoin got back into the range and it's now consolidating like we thought it would.
And to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised to see if we have a tweet coming out just about my broader market outlook here in a little bit.
But basically what I said, what I referenced in there was I wouldn't be surprised to see a WIC below this range that we just got ourselves back into.
Especially with everything that is coming out this week with you know, with the GDP numbers, I mean, I wouldn't be surprised to see, you know,
people quote unquote de-risking here, you know, just to kind of protect themselves against the
uncertainty behind GDP since no one kind of knows what's happening there. We also do have token 2049. So, you know, it could really go either way.
But my base case is just looking at charts and sticking to that.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some consolidation.
Maybe we wait below the range.
But ultimately, I see us going, you know, back into all-time highs here over the next, you know, one to two months, 30 to 60 days.
And that's been my base case for a while. And I don't think there's a reason to budge from that. But at the same time,
we're not going to get there all in one move, right? I do agree that there are some uncertainties
around traditional markets, economy, et cetera. But ultimately that all leads to the Fed printing.
So that to me would be, is a bullish signal for, you know, for crypto and for risk assets. But
at the same time, we have to realize that, you know, between now and then there are going to
be ups, there are going to be downs, there is going to be volatility that we need to endure.
So it's in times like this where, again, I trade on chain.
So a lot of my framework kind of revolves around how this all reflects, how this all affects tokens like a fart coin or like fundamental kind of utility tokens on Solana or something like a fart coin or like, you know, fundamental kind of utility tokens on Solana
or something like a house coin or a SUI or something like that.
So, you know, I just, I try to, I try to make my frame, I try to build my framework around
how will the price action and everything affecting markets, how is that going to affect the sentiment,
volume, and price action on chain?
And what I'm taking away from everything that I'm seeing is, okay, I'm going to, I've had
a good, over the last few weeks, we've made some insane calls. I called out Fartcoin at like six mil and it went to like
75. So that was a really good win. And then a few others as well, but been a really good last few
weeks. So with that in mind, there's not a reason to get too greedy up here. You know, it's just a matter of protecting capital, sitting on, sitting on some, some free capital. So if we do dip, you know, I have the ability to buy that. But at the same time, you know, if we keep going, I want to, you know, continue to have exposure in some high conviction plays.
plays. So that's really my positioning right now. I'm really prepared for midterm, long-term upside.
Short-term, there could be some volatility, maybe a wick to kind of scare some traders. But
we're prepared for that in that we have taken profits, we're protecting capital,
and just allowing the market to come to us and not not chasing these these green candles because, you know, I feel like you'll just lose doing that every single time.
And again, we're up 30 percent off the off the lows.
That's a pretty good move. And it's I think it's reasonable here to expect some consolidation and it's reasonable to expect possibly even a dip. But, you know, with that
possibility comes, you know, the question of, okay, if we do dip, will you have the opportunity
to buy? Would you have the capital to buy? So, you know, selling into these green candles over
the weekend was a really good choice, you know, looking back at it and,
you know, just excited for where we are. I think we do continue to grind up. It's not going to be,
it's not going to happen in one week. It's not going to happen in one weekly candle or one
daily candle, perhaps not even one monthly candle. But, you know, we trade what the charts are giving us every single day. And I think there's going to be a lot of, with that volatility, comes a lot
of opportunity for anyone that, you know, is trading on chain and has a framework that allows
them to, you know, take advantage of some of these R&R setups. Because, you know, on chain,
especially on Solana, where there's a ton of volume,
the volatility can work in your favor if you have a proper framework.
Hey, man, virtuals is also up like 4X off the lows.
I completely missed on that one, man.
It went way over my head.
Not only is virtual, there's a lot of these kind of
round one AI tickers
that have been
creeping up. I mean, I even saw
Zerebro, you know,
I think it was...
And there was some others as well.
I think Griffain as well was showing
some strength
off the bottom.
Ray. Ray off the bottom. Ray.
Ray off the low, man.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, man.
Ray's up like 10x off the low.
I haven't.
It's like a 2x from all time high.
With some of these tickers that I just hold, like, I just don't check the charts.
So, like, I just open up my port one day and I'm like, oh, snap, it's up.
What's going up?
And, yeah, it was Ray from sub 10 mil going to, like, I think it was, what, 60 or something like that last time I checked.
But, yeah, a lot of these tickers are starting to come back.
So, again, a lot of opportunity.
And if you still look at something like virtual, I think it paints a good picture for what the rest of the market is going through.
Virtual is up 4x off the lows, but relative to its all-time high, there's still a pretty good way to go.
So any dips are probably a good buy for if that fits someone's framework or goals for their portfolio.
But I think that's a good picture for everything else.
There's a lot that's just kind of showing some strength off the lows.
And so like any pullbacks are probably a good place to buy,
especially if these things are, you know, hold any value or are, you know,
doing anything good, such as like a Ray or something like that.
So, yeah, man loving the the conditions on chain
um loving the opportunities but you know just kind of moving with the market
speeding up and slowing down as it uh as it calls for it
yeah there's also pengu that's up like 4x off the lows and all these moves come with barely under a month and you
gotta wonder like next time majors go into price discovery what awaits us on the other side you
know like in q1 of 24 nobody really expected uh ai on chain tickers to go to billions right in q2 of last year right it was like deai uh some other
stuff as well and all those things were capped at like 120 110 mil and then the next go around
they 10x off of that so i'm wondering like the next ai run-up you'll probably see like one ticker hit 10 billion
dollars to mark basically the next top kind of like how pepe marked the top when it went to 10
bill i think there's going to be like an ai ticker that goes to that amount but um we'll see we'd
have to see some strength from nvidia of course but uh. But we are coming into 6 p.m. ESC, so I'm going to go ahead and wrap up, man.
Louis, chill, spread.
Prometheus, I want to thank you all four for coming up to talk some shop.
I want to thank you guys in the audience.
Thank you all so much.
Feel free to give us a follow if it's your first time tuning in.
We host multiple shows throughout the week.
We have a morning show called market
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tomorrow on our youtube for market check at 11 a.m esc so spaces are recorded so guys thank you thank
you thank you all so much shout out to my lord savior jesus
christ for allowing me another day of health to talk and rant and banter with you all about all
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God bless you all.
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