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Market Talk- 100k BTC incoming this month!? New highs for q2!?
Recorded: April 16, 2025 Duration: 1:31:39Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the resilience of on-chain data amidst market volatility, the potential of AI technologies like OpenAI to influence crypto growth, and the emergence of meme coins like Farcoin in traditional finance. The conversation also highlighted the interconnectedness of macroeconomic factors with crypto trends, indicating both growth and decline signals in the current market landscape.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Yeah. See how it comes to do it. I I'm going to go. Okay. See you back there. Okay.
See you. I'm so sorry. Oh so what's up guys welcome welcome back hope you're all doing okay apologies uh for yesterday uh there was no stream yesterday afternoon um woke up to to something that I just had to take care of.
So apologies for that, guys.
But hope you all have been doing well.
Man, these markets on chain have really provided some opportunity despite the scare that we had with an altcoin that went down 90% mantra Dow.
you know, 90% Mantra DAO.
That was quite terrifying.
That was quite terrifying.
And I was explaining in our afternoon Discord call
that if something like that occurred last month
or the month before,
you'd probably see a ton of minus 30,
minus 40% candles across the board
for a lot of these alts.
And we saw during 2022,
whenever we had something like a Sol or an AVAX,
or more specifically what happened with Luna,
whenever a major altcoin
would have some damage done because of a particular event that would always have some fall through
through the rest of the altcoin market but nonetheless i guess we can just talk about
some of the price action today right we had pal come out and essentially say the same jawboning
that he usually does but i do think with the fomOMC, he's going to bend the knee and say something in regards
to what occurred in the markets earlier this month.
I mean, you had the S&P going to 4,800, and six weeks before that, the S&P was at all-time
highs.
And any time since crypto inception, um anytime the indices have had more
than a 20 correction in that quick amount of time we can go back to uh september of 2018 when the
indices were near highs all the way to december s p had a drawdown of minus 17 percent nasdaq 20
of minus 17%, NASDAQ 20%.
We can go back to August of 2022,
all the way to October of 2022.
During that eight-week period,
both indices had a drawdown of close to 20%.
And the Fed had to intervene right after that,
early 2019.
We had some QE stimulus.
And then, of course, we all know what happened
in October of 22, early November of 22, when Yellen injected the Treasury market.
Right. And now you have Basant over the last couple of weeks.
It's kind of been this silent figurehead where most of the crypto market participants have been calling his bluff.
And same thing with the TradFi guys. guys they think besant is a larp but at the top of the market he essentially gave the signal in
the sky the the gunfire to the sky saying that prepare for uh for a massive correction uh embrace
yourself and there's going to be some pain he flat out said there's going to be some pain
and now a couple of days uh actually no a little little, almost a week after the VIX spiked up to those egregious levels, he's saying on national television that VIX is topped.
So people want to fade Bessent at the top, they want to fade them at the bottom, then by all means go ahead.
Larry Finkelstein, Finkelstein, hasn't really talked about crypto at all.
I haven't even kept up, honestly, with how these BTC ETF inflows are,
or ETH. But speaking about ETH, by the way, Sol ETH has hit new all-time highs amidst a record
level of flatulence, with Farcoin back at its daily high since it bottomed out in mid-March.
Farcoin is sitting at like $0.92, $0.93.
And we have had some on-chain runners on Seoul go to the nine digits, right?
You're starting to see some on-chain runners get past that $20 to 40 million dollar mark in which uh they've seemed to be capped out at since the uh
celebrity rug meta with libra and all that stuff back from early february uh late january so all
that shenanigans i think the market is kind of already forgotten about and it brings me back
right to the market conditions that we were in in the summertime if you guys remember back in
may and june we had celebrities like andrew tate iga azalea coming out with celebrity token grifts
and all that stuff and a couple weeks after that the market just said fuck them we're gonna do our
own stuff and we had smoking chicken fish muumuu retardio and all that stuff kind of come about. Right. And now we see things like KIDA.
We see things like Retard Finder coin absolutely melting up during these conditions where one,
BTC has mostly found somewhat of a floor in the mid 70K regions.
And it's been consolidating between 79 to 83000 in a very, very, very similar kind of price action when BTC started to range between $61,000 to $64,000 during that range last year.
But all in all, Powell is just really trying to LARP and say that he doesn't really care about how these tariffs affect the market.
But the fact of the matter is, this entire country, the United States of America, is all run on one
thing, which is how high can the S&P 500 go? How high can the NASDAQ go? How high can the Dow Jones
go before ultimately we turn into 1980s Japan, which inevitably it's probably going to happen.
It probably will happen. But the timeline is very strange as far as that goes. And with the
recent news of NVIDIA potentially not being able to negotiate any more business in China,
and NVIDIA most likely going to be conducting most of their business here in the U.S.,
I do feel as if there's probably going to be a monopoly on AI here in the United States.
And you also have OpenAI here in the U.S.
And as dubious as it sounds I do think open AI is
probably gonna flip meta if open AI goes public and open AI is essentially like
buying Facebook stock during their IPO and it's probably gonna be the biggest
app that people use in the next five to ten years as much as Facebook everyone
is gonna have an OpenAI account.
They're all going to have accounts on their phones.
They're all going to be using OpenAI more than Google.
I think Google is probably going to be outdated.
As much as they have a monopoly, there's always going to be a powerhouse
that inevitably gets flipped.
In the 1990s, Sony was a tech powerhouse,
90s, Sony was a tech powerhouse, and that obviously changed going into the 2010s, where Microsoft was just demolishing them on that front.
Do you guys remember Xbox Live and stuff like that?
There's always a king in some sort of sector between someone else comes in and flips them on their head.
Even Dell, right?
Dell got flipped by Apple.
Heeler-Packard, right?
Those 80s and 90s companies, they just got flipped on their head by Apple and Microsoft.
And they were the kings for some time, right?
So I think companies like Met meta are probably going to get
flipped in the next 10 years and i think it's probably going to be through things like ai
and that ai is going to be coming from uh from the states and the fact of the matter is there's
a ton of new capital willing to speculate on newer companies that primarily focus on ai and ai alone
and whenever ai does good that trickles down to crypto.
And of course, you guys know that myself and Donnie here in the audience. Donnie, I'm going
to send you a co-host invite again. I'm not sure if spaces are rugging. But speaking of AI,
Farcoin is probably one of the tokens that lead on that front it was a token created by
truth terminal which is an ai in itself and it created a shit coin called far coin there's no
team there's no marketing team um there's no like community figurehead there's no far coin forms and it is the only meme coin to penetrate things outside of crypto
twitter and our own little bubble here on x and on youtube and you know reddit and 4chan and stuff
like that and it's penetrated into tradfi and we have not seen that since doge to have this amount of mindshare for going on five months now since the
election it's absolutely unreal so if i'm bullish on memes i'm going with i'm going with farcoin
as ridiculous as it sounds and you kind of have to ask yourself some questions, right? Are you here to be right and sound smart and come up with a bunch
of threads and fugazi charts and lines to fit your own bias? Or are you here to make money?
Right? Everything is a psyop. Truth is price. Price is the ultimate arbiter of truth.
Everything else is a psyop. But that's kind of my opening shtick
that's my opening spiel prometheus you want to come on up feel free i sent you an invite to speak
but i got spread up here i have donnie i have naka spread uh it's great to have you brother
prometheus i sent you uh a speaker invite spx just chopping around a little bit it's always during chop where like
people want to go crazy and provide scenarios for both directions right and the fact of the matter
is it's like the thing that's really not priced in is how volatile this market is going to be for the next couple of weeks based on a true social post right
so the easiest thing to do in this environment is to just find assets that are up trending or
provide some volatility to either direction while the market is undecided of where it wants to go
right and so far that's been far coin and Hyperliquid, right? But nonetheless, there's
always a bull market somewhere. Gold is up, I think, like a couple of percentage points today.
And we saw this trend last year where BTC and majors were kind of just
ranging for a bit after they hit their massive low in april while gold just continued to surge the only the
only caveat to that is we don't have a specific stock uh like an nvidia that's ripping face right
but nonetheless guys happy to be here with you all thanks for tuning in whether you're here
live in the audience or whether you're uh listening to the recording i want to welcome
you welcome back to market talk hosted by me wabi the show is brought to you by bb welcome welcome spaces are
recorded as always so before we officially get started guys before we start to rant and banter
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So it really does help out if you guys retweet the space.
And of course, welcome, welcome.
I got spread up here, Prometheus, Donnie, and Naka.
So I want to welcome you all today back to Market Talk.
So, man, I'm going to pass it on over to Donnie as I usually do, man.
So, Donnie, what's going on, brother?
It seems that we're getting closer and closer to that FOMC date.
Powell is talking his usual yap.
But, man, we all know any time these massive events happen in the market,
usually during the next FOMC meeting, we have some resolution, man.
We have some nice volatility, some nice crazy conditions, some nice trading conditions.
Excuse me.
And of course, Farcoin, once again, man, doing pretty well in a day, man.
So what's going on, brother?
Thanks for coming through.
Hey, bro.
Thanks for having me on.
Yeah, markets looking decent.
Posted a chart yesterday, I think, just of one of the local setups for BTC
because we had a little bit of an accumulation forming on April 12th
where we kind of had this key level around 84, 700,
and we were like poking above it,
but we haven't gotten the solid reclaim above yet.
And now, as you can see on that chart
where I've drawn the reclaim level,
you've come into this like local supply zone, right?
And you're starting to deviate that high,
just ever so slightly, right?
Locally around that level,
which basically you're kind of locally distributing there, right?
Which means that it's more likely than not, unless we get literally, you know, bullish
price action today to break through that supply zone, that it's more likely we go to these
levels below, which is around 80 to 78K.
But I guess the one like sort of impressive thing today was that the stock market had a decent flush,
down like 3.4% or so.
And BTC reacted to it,
but it's still holding up decently well relative to that.
I thought if we do come into that zone on the SPX,
which was actually around like 5.3k, we've gone
much lower than that, went to like 5.2-ish.
I thought that BTC would already be trading around that 80k level, but not yet.
Obviously, it can still play out now.
The S&P is going to close and BTC still has, it's going to be open.
So yeah, watching to see if we get one of these other two levels,
but ultimately I really think over the next,
any day in the next three weeks leading up to that FOMC,
I think this wider accumulation on BTC
should play out to break above the range high,
which right now if we're using this range on the chart
that I showed you, it's around 88k or 89k, my bad.
So just taking it slowly, seeing what we get given.
And yeah, I think the context we've covered a bunch
over the last few months of why we're kind of expecting to go higher.
And there's plenty of things to also be uh worried
about but you know the way that i'm seeing it i just keep seeing you know articles from any country
even my country in new zealand right they're all putting up these tariff posters being like you know
and you just see the keywords money printing uh recession all this kind of stuff, right? So to me, it's bearish news in an accumulation set up on BTC
where we have a bunch of confluence for going higher than this point.
And even if things get worse, me as a trader personally,
I like to be on the other side of the resolution, right?
I like to be on the other side of the resolution, right?
They've been hinting at potentially doing some form of QE
to stabilize the bond market, whether that's needed or not.
I don't know.
I'm looking at yields right now, and they also look locally distributive
without any sort of Fed intervention at the moment.
Even though we had the blowout on the 10-year,
I was saying to my guys, basically,
the drop that we had was induced by the fear in the stock market when the stock market was puking.
And then right on the reversal was also around Trump as sort of a narrative, right? Where it
became this thing of other countries
are dumping yields or whatever.
So it's very like whiplash volatility in that tenure
where if none of that happened,
really the chart was shaping out to potentially
come to this 4.5 anyway, this 4.5% level
and locally distribute there,
which now you're kind of setting up right
now. So again, I'm not actually that worried about the bond market either. And even if it comes to,
you know, Fed intervention, I want to be on the other side of that, right? Not really too
worried about what happens in between. And then the two year, this thing, like there's, I think
there would be no trader in the world that
looks at this chart and tells me this is going to reverse to go higher just based off of the
timeframe of this distribution set up. It's literally a 900 day distribution set up with
another local shoulder distribution over the last 150 days. And the Fed funds rate is around 4.25 to 4.5 and it's trading right now at 3.77 so
to me having three back-to-back fomc meetings having a pretty clear sort of um i would say
orchestration between the fed and the government to potentially you know work together to stabilize
the market or whatever the hell their plans are,
I think these yields go lower, right?
Yields down, dollar down, global M2 up,
and something's going to happen positively for markets here.
We still have all of this DXY to price in with the M2 expansion.
We're having gold as a leading indicator going parabolic essentially it's
coming to a 15 year macro 2.618 high i'm expecting some sort of rejection there or around there
and you know for the sentiment for risk to start shifting after this uh fomc meeting or maybe it's
the june meeting but again i want to be on the other side of that. And yeah, I think it's going to be
super bullish. Also with like DXY, I tried to cover it, I think on another space, but basically,
we've had a very monstrous dollar ever since the COVID cycle. So even just taking a glance off the
charts, if you have people that live in other countries and stuff, everyone's been absolutely screwed, right?
Very tight financial and business conditions all around the world because of this massive blowout on the dollar, right? it's been very sort of critical and obvious when price,
well, when DXY goes in an uptrend and tags 100,
which in 2017, it went to 103.
In 2020, it went to 103 as well.
You go in an uptrend above 100.
Once you lose that 100 level,
from there is where essentially financial conditions globally started to really get good
and you know markets started to roar and we've been above that 100 level for
a thousand one hundred days right so you know you pair that against the ethbcc chart
you can see why kind of the risk barometer of crypto, ETHBTC, has been absolutely
destroyed this cycle, right? But we've come to a very, very key point on the DXY chart where
essentially this PO3 has already played out, the one that I've kept showing. And I think it's just
going to go lower. I don't really care what's causing DXY to lose these levels because it's been so inflated anyway that any sort of
easing on this chart to me is positive, right? And it's more so what happens next. If we do have
these FOMC meetings, if we are expecting the Fed to do some sort of easing, if we are expecting
some sort of deal from China and the US, which I think is very likely, then I'm expecting the dollar to start trending
towards 90, regardless of how it's gotten here or there's getting out of US dollars or whatever.
For me, this thing is telling me that if the trend continues, BTC specifically, and the crypto market
is going to go up with all of the backdrop of the know the other context so i'm not going to risk not being on that side um you know because there's a whole bunch of
bullish catalysts in my head that are lurking in the backgrounds to where once they flip the switch
it's probably going to happen pretty quickly to where you get priced out of you know lows
on a bunch of stuff and you know essentially you miss a bulk of the move.
I still have a cash position and stuff,
so if things get worse, I'll welcome it.
I know how they'll react to anything breaking or getting worse.
And I just don't want to buy into that sort of narrative
after some pretty historic lows on the SPX
and also very important technical levels in my view
on BTC, right?
Tagging sort of around
that BlackRock accumulation range
around 74k.
Yeah, I think
yeah, I
want those levels to hold and
I think they will, right?
Because of all the context. But
yeah, we'll see what we get going into May and after that.
Yeah, and something funny, Donnie, before I pass it over to Spread
and then I'll pass it over to Naka.
By the way, guys, you guys know that this week my plan is to make these spaces
as efficient as possible, Get as much alpha jam packed
from the speakers and everyone participating to be respectful of everyone's time as it
is Passover and Holy Week. Markets will be closed on Friday. So Friday there will be
no shows. Usually when the stock market is closed we don't really uh produce any live streams so
really want to make this space as efficient as possible but man donnie it's it's kind of crazy
with one this tariff situation they're just throwing out imaginary numbers right like one
day it's going to be 245 percent the next day it's going to be 700 and so on and so forth but then the market spoke very clearly when we did hit those
levels right we retested the march 2024 high for btc we retested just above the um january 2022
high for spx and we're seeing the same rhetoric that we saw in 2022 when Crypto Bros turned into macro LARPs.
And we kind of saw that happen when SPX had a four handle on it and Solana was at 90 bucks.
thought that was a good trade even though the tariff mineshare trade was essentially the same
as longing BTC when it broke over 100k and hit 105 back in December and man one thing you got
to appreciate about this market is volatility volatility. Because once volatility dies out, it is truly despair. And there is not much to do, man. But, man, I and view the market as to, you know, with all these
narratives and stuff, it's
always, you have like,
you have news
be very accommodative of
the price
bias of the direction, right?
So if, you know,
if price is essentially
downtrending
and they're trying to accumulate,
you're always going to have the bad news
at these lows while deviating lows on the chart
so that retail essentially capitulates
into buy orders, right?
It's the same for the upside.
So for the recent narrative of Trump,
we literally had the most bullish news
at the highs.
That was locally the top, wasn't the cycle top for me.
And at the lows, you've had the narrative flipped again.
So it's just like now Trump is bearish all of a sudden.
It's not really like the headlines or what's going on
that's really that important to me.
I get like the trade regime shift is like super important
and all this kind of stuff.
But at the end of the day,
what's on the other side of this
again is more important to me.
And yeah,
it's just the same thing.
Same shit, different cloak, pretty much
is what I'm trying to say.
Yeah,
that's a real
thing, man. That is a real
thing. I'm going to pass
it over to Spread. Spread spread what's going on man
welcome back from your multi-month vacation brother how are you feeling thanks for coming
through i understand that it's late uh but nonetheless man i want to pass the mic over to
you if you have any thoughts on the conversation that's going on and also uh give some of your thoughts on the market given that uh we haven't
had a chat uh recently or at least from what i can remember man hey guys first of all i wish it
was just a vacation but i can't complain so it was more of a business slash vacation also
more to the business side it was amazing so if you guys want to do something with your life in
general just travel as much as you can abroad now to the market stocks it's very interesting because
for the past i don't one year since i started speaking in these spaces along with donnie i
think it's one year since we were together i think we were on the same page most of the time, like almost all the time, not most of the time.
And recently, you know, I respect Donny, I respect his views,
but I also respect myself and price action and my own strategy.
And because of that, in the last two months, I became less bullish.
In the last two months, I liquidated most of my altcoins holdings.
And I flipped them, the ones that I liquidated, back to Bitcoin.
Also, I cut a lot of mantra in the last few months.
I moved to Bitcoin.
I moved to stablecoins.
Recently, like three weeks ago, from 3% in stables, I jumped to 10% in stable coin just from mantra.
Of course, I wish I would have moved more.
I still hold quite a nice bag of it.
Nobody could have predicted of what happened.
So I'm not going to sit here and say that I knew,
like I exit all the position.
No, no.
But going back to the discussion,
I'm less bullish than I was.
Sorry?
I exited everything good job uh i'm not that skilled as you naka uh what i wanted to say is that when we lost 5700 it was for the first
time since october 2022 when i flipped bullish on when i flipped from bullish to bearish on s&p 500 so since
october 2023 when we broke above 4400 i was bullish all the time even on august 5th after
that drop and the recovery i continued to be bullish and i was bullish non-stop under 5700
i flipped neutral and then under 5300 i think it was on the second or third of
april it was the first time since october 2023 when i shorted this mp500 and i shorted it with
size and since then i said that under 5 500 any rejection that is going to go back under 5 300
i'm going to look to short this is what i did this evening um shorted again with size um because the regime changed so
s p 500 is not anymore in a higher high higher low type of structure on daily or on weekly flipped to
lower high and lower lows with the tap on 4 800 and with the rejection that we just had in the last
six days under 5 500 so. So I'm less bullish.
Actually, I'm bearish on the United States stock market.
I'm bearish also on the dollar
because you should look at the dollar and how it looks.
However, the fact that we had the rise in yields
and a bearish dollar and a rise in gold
with the Swiss franc for me,
it was something odd
and something that put me on guard even more
and makes me even more
happy with the decision that i took to move away from quantity meaning holding too many
altcoins and to move back concentrated to quality right now right now i hold more than 70 something
percent in in bitcoin i hold a bit of solana a bit of radium and a bit of injective
and obviously the bag that's left from from mantra but besides that i'm not feeling the
same type of sentiment that i had before i just feel that we are in a house it's a mixed situation
and mostly it's because of tariffs if these tariffs were not on the table most likely
i would also have been in a less conservative type of approach right now but the tariffs are
just fucking up everything from a macro perspective um i don't see any cuts on the horizon the bond
market doesn't show any cuts at least at least i don't know there is nothing priced in as a cut i'm looking at the
bond deals like on the short duration there is nothing priced in for may for june if a stock
market crash does not come in the next few months powell is not going to cut and it's not federal
reserve job to cut because trump and the white house have some tantrums and they have their own
agenda fomc or federal reserve they had a mandate and they have their own agenda. FOMC or Federal Reserve,
they had a mandate and they have a mandate. Their mandate is job stability and inflation being under
control. And to make matters worse or to add insult to injury because of the tariffs, we listened to
what Powell said this evening and he said that inflation expectations are more entrenched and
they're also for a longer period of time so most likely
powell is going to keep the same type of rhetoric and the same type of stance when it comes to rates
for as long as he can because of the things that are happening right now and because of the
potential new fears of inflation so like i was saying without the stock market crash and meaning
you know to have some circuit
breakers or to have like really really big systemic risks i don't see them cutting and
the people who think that cutting under the under these conditions it's a good thing i just want to
say what i said before and i can be wrong of course but my my approach also changed when it
comes to cuts before the tariffs discussions and before the tariff wars began, I said that the cut can be very nice and can be actually supportive of the market because
it's going to loosen the credit cycle. But if we're going to have a cut because of fears of
systemic risks or because the stock market is dropping, it's not going to be the same type of
cut that we would have had because of normalization. So I think this is very important to add here.
would have had because of normalization so i think this is very important to add here
so going forward bearish on bearish on s p 500 bearish on nasdaq bearish on downjones bearish on
iwm um best yes i'm bearish on the dollar and i'm gonna speak maybe some other time because i see
something massively massively that is going to change on the dollar which is going to put most likely more pressure on the dollar and in the same time i'm bullish on on bitcoin i haven't flipped bearish on bitcoin
um about 74 000 the higher time frame is untouched so on weekly bitcoin still looks good but on lower
time frame like daily we are on an undeniable downtrend since let me double check so i speak
exactly on the chart on lower time frame we are on a downtrend since late january and at least
until we don't clear 92 93 i don't think anything is going to change and we see with the type of
reaction we have for the last six seven days under 85 000 so to keep to keep it short and to conclude
bearish smp bearish dungeons bearish nasdaq bullish bitcoin higher time frame bearish bitcoin
lower time frame until we clear 90 to 93 000 and i'm not touching altcoins right now there are some
altcoins that are very interesting congratulations again to to donnie for the find on um part on a fart on base i know it sounds silly
even for me it sounds silly for me to speak about something like fart coin you know because
i'm trading in the in the stock market for 15 years but regardless of the chart if it shows
strength and if it shows power you have to speak about it and that's why we have these spaces
fart coin was good radium looks like it's's bottoming if we talk about some altcoins.
TRX with Justin Sun behind it also looks good.
So we have some pockets of strength.
But this is not the type of scenario where I'm going to go out of my way.
Speaking of charts that look good, not to interrupt you,
but XMR looks pretty fucking bullish too, man.
Monero, for whatever reason.
I didn't have that.
Let me double check it because I cannot put it.
I'm in front of my computer right now.
Wow.
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah.
For whatever reason.
So I had an analysis.
Let me tell you.
I had an analysis that was dating back in November last year when we we were around 165 and i had 181 as a
level and i said that the bottom is going to be confirmed above 180 and looks like we have a
reaccumulation so i don't know xmr looks good you are absolutely right on the money as long as 180
holds for xmr monero looks looks looks prime to go higher whenever Bitcoin is going to find the bottom.
So very nice find.
So for me, it's TRX.
We have some pockets of strength.
Like I said, Farcoin is leading the way by a mile.
We have another one.
I think you guys can put it on your list.
I don't know how much is going to go.
It's called Layer.
For some reason, it's just printing all-time high after all-time high.
Radium, for the ones who have a nice bottom information.
CRV also looks like it's bottoming.
Jasmine, maybe.
And Plume.
So all in all, like I said, conclusion.
Bearish on the stock market.
Still bullish on Bitcoin, about 74,000.
And I think I'm going to keep this stance until we're gonna get some clarity
i'm not gonna look to to altcoins right now i'm just gonna look on on bitcoin maybe even adding
more bitcoin and just trade these kind of rotations and increase my stack of fiat and stable coin
through trading in the stock market the last two months but especially the last one week and a half
have been amazing for me trading traditional markets and forex and the dollar.
So that's it for me for now.
I'll pass it on over now to Naka.
It seems like Naka wanted to say something.
Naka, what's up, man?
Hey, buddy.
Yeah, thanks.
Yeah, just appreciate the feedback here, guys.
I was wondering why is Donnie bullish?
Donnie was kind of bullish.
The situation looks kind of foobar at the moment.
And I think we had Mr mr spread and donnie basically
take the same data and one of you guys painted a bull picture and the other one painted a bear
picture on basically the same stuff so i mean my take on it is if you're a bull and you're a bull
because you think the fed's gonna have to print because there's going to be a big crash. It's kind of like inconsistent,
right? Because it means that, you know, if the Fed hasn't printed already, right, it means that
they don't think that what's already happened is bad enough. So that means it has to get worse.
And that means risk assets are going to go down. Now, maybe Bitcoin, you could say Bitcoin's going to decouple, you know, in a risk adjusted sense it has.
But I think you have to basically play the decoupling card because there's no fucking way that risk assets as a whole are going to be bullish.
If we just had an extremely bearish FOMC and Powell saying that, you know, there are elevated structural risks because of Trump's fucking around powerful stupid shit. Right. Um, so I don't, I don't really think you can be bullish.
I'm still in cash. I haven't bought anything. I was going to buy some stuff, but I just decided,
you know, cause, cause I think we're basically, we're basically in the sort of March 2022 zone
where there's been a bit of a crash, there's been a bit of a downtrend
like there was in January of 2022. And then people are like, okay, well, we had the crash.
Now let's resume up only. And so you get a complacency shoulder. So I've been kind of
anticipating the complacency shoulder, but like it still hasn't quite taken off. We're still
under a lot of the moving averages. So I'm waiting.
Um, but I'm not really bullish, right? I'm like, I could tactically, you know, buy like a few
altcoins, buy some, you know, leverage stuff. I don't know, whatever. Um, but I don't think you
can really be bullish here. I think you really have to be bearish. And I think the crypto bear
market has begun. And I think basically the day that Melania
Trump shilled a shitcoin is the first day of the 2025 bear market and we're currently
about one third of the way through we've had a bit of downtrend there's more to come.
Did you want to throw that to Donnie?
What you had mentioned about why is he Polish?
This is going to be a good one man oh man like the thing is
sorry to interrupt you man can you can you first reply to what i said and after that you can also just go back to what the knock i said then reply to him to to uh your statements yeah if you can
yeah so you sound like you still have a bullish stance on crypto, right? That's the main thing
that I trade and focus on. So, you know, we're kind of in the same camp there. I didn't really
have too much to add. Like, if I was to explain the entire
thesis, it would honestly take, you know, a lot of time and I'm not willing
to go through all of that right now, right? But I don't really care
too much what happens with the stock market, right? Whether the end of US exceptionalism is the correct trade to be taking
here or whatever, or if that's actually the most offside trade, I don't know yet. I don't really
care too much, right? I'm seeing gold absorbing all of this liquidity that's you know being um injected into global markets things
like that i think you know btc can be you know a beneficiary of that as well right maybe it's
going to cause some sort of decoupling narrative whatever but just the way that it currently
stands right with this accumulation set up on btc with you know global liquidity hitting new
all-time highs i just don't see how you don't get a rally,
even tactically if you're a trader, literally approaching now. And in my view, the last FOMC was not bearish. It basically just told me that the Fed is willing to accommodate essentially the
treasury market. They slowed QT on treasuries from 25 to 5 billion.
They've made it, in my view, pretty clear
that they're willing to help stabilize the market
if things have gotten worse.
And with the recent drop, which has been pretty bad, right?
You did have circuit breakers going off globally,
SPX down with extremely sharp downwards price action
to where they're willing to step in,
right?
Plus the bond market volatility, the main thing that the Fed is really looking for to
stabilize that market with liquidity.
Yeah, I just think nothing has broken to a very extreme level yet, but that volatility alone,
they are setting up, you know, many things in the background that they're just slowly, you know,
planting the seed with that. I think they will use those instruments if necessary. So I just want to
want to be on the other side of that i don't think they're going to let things break to you know this
be on the other side of that. I don't think they're going to let things break to, you know,
very bearish case um to then have to you know go into this absolutely disgusting deficit i think
it's going to be more of you know a smoother path therefore i just think um you know things aren't
going to get too much worse especially for btc right there's just so many things but yeah i guess time will tell i'm not
gonna you know drop an hour of alpha on absolutely everything that i'm calculating for but let's just
see what happens prometheus brother what's going on brother yo yeah no i've uh i've longed all nuclear stocks
um i think shit it's gonna go down um no i'm just kidding um no i think that
wasn't that wasn't that like something for 2022 that second half it was like no nuclear popped off oh my god sorry no it was like
oh time to load up on guns and ammo because cpi is going to hit like 30 and all that stuff i'm
just saying a lot of stuff that i saw in 2022 and like most of the drawdown and equities yeah
yeah it was already was already happening sorry one second we drop i can't hear you
It was already happening now.
Sorry, one second.
We drop.
I can't hear you.
Oh, okay, okay.
Yeah.
And I mentioned that because, like, since crypto inception, or rather, like, since 2008,
there hasn't been a drawdown on SPX greater than 25%.
And within two quarters, prices not being up egregiously, right?
within two quarters, prices not being up egregiously, right?
2018, prices drew down on indices by 20 plus percent.
Two quarters later, we were absolutely shredding.
Same thing after October 2022.
Six months later, prices were absolutely shredding.
I just want to add another thing. I just want to add another thing i just want to add another thing
since since since may 2000 let me double check here since may 2023 we were in an uptrend for 680
80 days until recently so if now we're gonna flip the bearish on this MP500, such an uptrend is not going to have just a downtrend of two days or three days or one week or one month.
Most likely, if we are flipping bearish here and if we're losing 5,300 and after that we go also under 4,800, it's going to take like two, three, six months until we're going to set up a local bottom
until we're going to rally again.
I just want to add this here
because again, I have been bullish since October 2023.
But this was an uptrend,
like a very, very healthy uptrend for that long.
So if we're flipping,
this kind of structure is don't flip
for just one week or two weeks.
Spread, wasn't wasn't
the s&p up like almost a thousand points from the october 2022 lows to october 23 i think spx bottoms
um and no spx hit like 4400 in august of 23 drew down to like 4100 to october of 23 but i mean at that point man like people missed
a big amount of gains off of those lows like a move from spx from 3400 where we bottomed to 4100
people missed the ev trade from the first half of 23 with rivian and carvana they missed the entire
summer rally on low cap stocks with the IWM. They missed out
on coin. They missed out on hood. They missed out on a lot of those initial gains. And I mean,
BTC was up like over a hundred percent at that point. Let me tell you one thing. I missed on
that bottom, right i'm if there's
something that i've learned in the last 15 years is that i'm not gonna look for pico bottoms or
pico tops most likely i'll always gonna buy a little bit late and always gonna sell a little
bit early so for me i flipped look october 2022 november 2023 guess what? I flipped almost one year later after the stock market bottom.
So I missed on a 25% rally, but I logged the fuck out of this 45% rally after that because
I paid the premium knowing that I'm going to be in an absolute bull run.
Now, if this is changing, right, and we still have some time, but most likely this is going
to change in the next two three
weeks the only thing that i'm saying is that most likely we're going to stay in a downtrend for spx
for three six months whoever knows just this but seeing this strength on for example bitcoin and
if this is going to last longer not only me you donnie and everybody who is here on this space
is noticing but also the big guys so maybe also
is going to spark some idea to their mind that if bitcoin is so strong during this kind of downtrend
right now that we are seeing on on traditional markets maybe it's not going to be so bad to
reallocate even one two percent from their portfolios which means quite a lot so even if
we're going to drop another 10 15 on on traditional index indexes like SPX, NASDAQ, Dow Jones, I still think that Bitcoin can fare nicely between like 66-74.
So just to have a conclusion here, even if we lose 74, I'm not going to start shorting Bitcoin or selling Bitcoin.
for Luce 74, I'm not going to start shorting Bitcoin or selling Bitcoin. My strategy going
forward is to short the fuck out of the traditional market and accumulate fiat and maybe also short
some altcoins that are overvalued. So I'm going to be in such a position going forward when
most of the people are going to shed their pants to start deploying capital. That's the only thing
that I'm looking at going forward. down right we haven't seen a drop like that on spx and i'm not going to count the covet crash
because one over the last five years any dip that's occurred in markets they say oh it's like
the covet crash oh it's like the covet crash which is honestly disrespectful to the market because one
covet had pretty much the entire world get locked down overnight, right?
So we can't compare it to COVID.
So excluding the COVID crash, since 2008, right, there has not really been a drawdown
to that amount where markets still have much more downside to go.
So why don't you say that like most of the meat of
the move has already been completed right uh we have 2018 for example 2022 like we had the vix
shoot up to such an egregious level you're right to the point where i think it eclipsed it eclipsed
the august high i i i i i'm not trying to be right, honestly, brother.
I don't care to be right.
I just care to make money.
But I want to kind of get your thoughts because you've been trading.
Two thoughts.
Two thoughts here.
You're very right with VIX.
And seeing VIX again at 66, it was one of my basic theories that whenever VIX was near 66,
that whenever VIX was near 66, be it great financial crisis, be it the COVID crash or the BOJ carry trade unwinding in late August 2024,
it has been a great period to accumulate some good assets, right? Some assets, but for long term.
And this is the reason why I said that I'm not bearish on Bitcoin. I'm not going to sell my Bitcoin.
What I'm going to do is be in a much more conservative mode and instead of being spread to like less quality assets and a lot of altcoins i'm just going to be
more concentrated and i'm going to short the indexes or i'm going to short whatever the
markets are going to offer me especially the dollar right now euro dollar is looking so good
so i'm going to long the euro against the dollar i'm going to short the dollar versus the swiss
franc etc so to increase my my dry powder to deploy whenever the markets are going to bottom.
And if you ask me regarding S&P 500, I don't know when the market is going to bottom.
I don't know if the market bottom here.
I have no idea.
For me, it's very simple.
Under 5,700, I'm neutral bearish.
Under 5,300, I'm bearish.
About 5,700, I'm going to flip in an instant in a heartbeat back bullish
i have no sentiments regarding the market i don't give a shit if it goes up or down or sideways etc
i have my levels i have my system i just execute with cold blood and i do my best to just rotate
or flip whenever the price tell me to do so so yeah it was a big drawdown um but i think we've seen too many people too fast call
for the bottoms at least a retest of 4800 or 4600 before we can bottom in the next few months
this is what this is this is how it looks like and we just flip the structure rather
i told you i've been bullish for so long october 2023 and recently so
if the structure will flip from higher highs and higher highs and higher lows to lower highs and lower lows on daily,
I'm just going to follow through until the structure is going to change again. And that structure is going to change again back above 5,700.
Man, I completely forgot what I was going to throw at you, man.
I bamboozled you. Damn, man. I bamboozled you.
Damn, dude.
I bamboozled you.
Man, I had something really, really, really interesting that I was going to throw before we wrap up.
But, um...
Yo, let me...
Oh, yeah.
I was going to throw this, man was gonna, I was gonna throw this man.
Uh, the 200 weekly moving average, right?
I think that's right at 4,600.
And honestly, man, like if we break the 200 weekly moving average, then I'm fucking wrong.
And I guess we're screwed until Q4, until Q4, I guess.
Because my gosh, dude, if we break the 200-weekly moving average on end of season,
we haven't done that since 2008.
The algos that are going to kick in are going to be fucking insane.
And the capitulation week on BTC is going to be fucking nasty.
If we break the 200 week moving average, and
SPX hits like
4,000 on the dot,
or even has a three handle,
you'll probably see BTC
retest 48k.
Don't say that, Wabi.
Don't say that.
You don't think so?
You know why we shouldn't say that, or you should say that?
Because I think that if
Wait a second if in February how much was Bitcoin in February one just for let me double check
100,000 yeah, so it was like between 98 100
So if in February we would have said that listen SPX is gonna go from
6300 to 4800 right and bitcoin is gonna still be around 85 i think people would have told us that
we are fucking lunatics right so what you know s p 500 to drop how much it dropped in total from
the highs to drop 22 and bitcoin to still stay above 85 are you out of your mind so when it
comes to this kind of prediction predictions of the drops and and also rallies i think the regime kind of changed
recently but it's not going to take only a drop with also the velocity of the drop of course if
we're just going to nuke from 5200 to 4400 or even lower of course it's going to also put like a big
big dent in bitcoin but if you're just going to have like a slow bleed most likely it's also gonna
drag bitcoin with it but without having like big big crashes it's gonna go like i said 74 68 66 but
it depends what i want to say is just have an open mind and don't make this kind of
wild downside targets like we shouldn't have made also wild upside targets just let the price
decide like you said very well in your open statement this evening,
price is the biggest truth teller.
Just follow price.
That's why for the first time in a long time,
I'm bearish on S&P, but still bullish on Bitcoin.
Man, spread.
So it looks like crypto never takes a day off man and uh yeah
you're right on that i i i'm just i i just like to price in the most ridiculous things
if certain things um occur and then when those things occur and there's no follow-through
then i'm just like all right time to become neutral kind of like
when world liberty fi was uh was buying a bunch of all coins and like all the click baiters bull
posters 24 7 bull posters were all saying trump is buying all coins it's super bullish but yet
like prices were going down and whales were exiting. And a lot of people that were holding Bitcoin, like, they sold when price hit 100,000.
People that bought at, like, 1,000, 2,000, they sold at 100,000.
And a lot of those people are not coming back.
And so that's why, like, with altcoin in specific, whenever an altcoin draws down 90%,
who says that it's going to go back to all-time highs?
Says who?
Like, it doesn't have to, man.
A lot of those people that exit altcoins are never coming back.
They made their trade and they left.
And same thing with ETH.
There are a lot of people that bought ETH at $100, $200 in 2019.
$100 $200 in 2019 and when D5 summer happens and ETH six months after D5 summer went to like 3,000
4,000 that's it they exited right like study Nokia study the Nokia chart that's that's the framework
for most all coins all Altcoins are rented vehicles
of attention,
not investments. They're trades.
And long term,
it's probably only going to be Bitcoin, man.
Because even with Sol,
that leadership on Sol is so horrible.
You have Toli talking
about macro and how
assets are
risk-off now. And that's when his token was at 90
bucks man someone needs to someone needs to like knock some sense into that guy
brother it's kind of like how Vitalik was acting when ETH BTC started to look
like shit and maybe soul BTC is the new ETH BTC I don't know man I just want to
add another thing before passing to Prometheus.
I think this cycle
was different from one aspect because a lot of
people didn't know how to play the rotation
game. And I don't want to use
lightly play because I hate it when I
associate it in the investment sphere.
But this cycle was more about rotation.
So people who got very, very
comfortable in the last cycle because we had
fuck you money all over the place and we had the helicopter money from federal reserve and all the
other central banks they got complacent and they said oh i'm just gonna pick some shitties and
everything's gonna rally well guess what you had to be in ai you had to be in memes you had to be
in leaders so you had to be more discretionary and it was not the same type of market that we
had last year we had sectors rallying you know but if btc didn't
rally we didn't have the broader market all season and most likely we're not going to have a broader
market all season but people who fantasize that out that we're not going to have again altcoins
rallying they bet against the human nature and they bet against like hundreds of years of stock
market or you know hundreds of years of charts since all japan so going forward, I still think that we're going to have Bitcoin season.
We're going to have AI season or whatever type of season.
But people who don't have enough experience also in the crypto space,
they have just this wild fantasy that we're not going to have altcoins rallying.
We will have altcoins rallying, but we're going to have sectors rallying,
which means that you have to put much more work into it
and you have to find those pockets of strength.
And of course, to take profits gradually to bitcoin most likely and also to stable coins
but we will have them sorry prometheus you can't go man no you're you're good um yeah i mean i
think it's a lot of good discussion i think that there's a lot of context that, I mean, you should take a lot into account right now.
We are in very much uncharted waters.
Like we've never, I mean, the markets have been in similar situations, but never one to exactly like this.
And so you kind of have to take bits and pieces of what's occurring across the markets and kind of try to put the puzzle together and make sense of it.
I mean, I remain cautiously optimistic that there will be some form of resolution in regards to tariffs.
I mean, the numbers that they're throwing out there now are a joke, and it's pretty much just screaming like, let's come to a deal essentially at this point.
like let's come to a deal essentially at this point. And really the, you know, the whole
question of, oh, is it going to be a growth scare or not? You know, you have to take into account,
are they going to allow tariffs to actually, you know, take effect to the point where, you know,
it slows down broader global economic trade? And how is that going to affect, you know,
smaller businesses in the middle class?
Is it going to be inflationary?
You know, what is the fed going to do?
I think having some form of middle ground and being a contrarian on both sides is rather
healthy, you know, with the volatility, you know, the VIX at the same time is such a great
indicator for, you know, sentiment for like extremityity sentiment. And on Twitter as well, you know,
when we have heightened VIX, you have people coming out of the woodworks, you know, who are,
you know, super, super, super bullish. And you have people that are super, super, super bearish.
And, you know, the world's over. And I mean, structurally, things don't look good. But I
think if we come to some form of resolution, then, you know, you don't have the, you know,
the fears materialize in a way that, you know, people once thought you are seeing obviously
capital flood to, you know, safe havens.
And but at the same time, you know, you do see bonds like distributive or yields like
distributive and the dollar looks like it's going to nuke and
whether the dollar nukes because of, you know, whether that's a risk on signal or risk off signal
is to be determined. And like I said, having, you know, there's opportunities still in the market,
whether or not you're, you know, super omega bearish or super bullish. I think that you, there's some great
opportunities on some stocks that are super discounted at the moment. And, and you have
an opportunity to buy stuff that is very, that is relatively very, very cheap. But at the same time,
you have some opportunities to short some stuff that is probably still.
What do you, what do you think is super discounted at the moment what do you
think's good i think there's some great stocks like american express um i think that you know
i mean you have some quality defensive stocks that you can get into that are probably you know
pretty cheap across the board from what i've been looking at like i said i think american express is
a great buy here i think that you know probably probably things such as a Caterpillar is still a great buy, even though people talk
about, oh, you have a slow down in homebuilder stocks.
Caterpillar is going to get hammered.
I don't necessarily think so.
You could even look at stuff that had a, you know, nasty buyback on it, like
RTX.
RTX came down into a great buy zone at 113, had a strong bounce back, filled the gap on
that.
You know, you could even look at some of the energy stocks, like energy transfer is a great
dividend paying stock, something that's going to allow you to generate income, you know,
and probably neutralize a lot of your downside that you may have due to some exposure to some higher beta plays. You could also
look at, I still, I think that stuff like American Airlines here is actually a great buy. I mean,
sure, they just guided down due to, you know, guided down their flight or number of flight predictions due to potential
recession and, you know, lack of usage of the airlines. But you're coming down into
ranges on stocks like, you know, like I just said, American Airlines, where historically,
these are super cheap valuations and in the long term are going to be really, really good buys.
You know, I mean, when the world's blowing up, you know, that's, that's when you,
you know, are able to scoop up stuff at, you know, really, really cheap prices. You know, and a lot of people
are going to miss that train because they're going to be listening to all the people screaming,
you know, about how the world's blowing up, how the United States is going to become, you know,
a third world country again, and nobody's going to want to buy U.S. debt and China's taking over
and yada, yada, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And you're, they're just psyoping people, you know, a third world country again, and nobody's going to want to buy U.S. debt and China's taking over and yada, yada, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
And they're just psyoping people, you know, into not buying great opportunities in the markets.
You know, I think with something like American Express, I'm looking at the charts and, you know, like this thing has corrected to its 400 week moving average multiple times over the past decade.
And that's at 150. The stock's currently at 250.
And it's only down like it's I mean, it's not down much, right?
Like it's down like 20 percent. If it corrected to the 400 week moving average, it would be a 55 percent correction.
65 correction um yeah but i mean from the lows it was down 32 you know to that strong uh strong
support level down there 225 you know which i was able to scoop and i did post it yeah yeah i mean
that's that's not crazy but i mean if this thing if this thing just corrects to the same place it
was in 2016 and then 2020 if it corrects that 400 week moving average, it's going to go down to 150.
And that's a much bigger move than what's happened so far. So I look at these stocks and I'm like,
I'm not bullish on this shit. Right. And the other thing is like, you know, like if Amex corrects to
like 150, you know, it was like 65 in 2007. So you're going to be like on a, like two, two and
a half X in like you know longer
than half the people in the space of fucking being alive right i mean this is like a really
fucking boring stock it doesn't go up very much which i mean there's nothing wrong with that i
mean if you want to diversify your portfolio and pick up some great names i think it's a great i
think it's a great play in the long run and i mean i'm not here just to degen you know be a on chain 24 7 either like if
i'm secret i mean like what like like who would who would buy this who would buy this boomer
company rather than bitcoin like there's no way this thing outperforms bitcoin it's like completely
impossible do you think do you think that grinder find the local bottom do you think that Grindr finds the local bottom?
Do you think what finds the local bottom?
Grindr.
Grindr stock.
But that's the whole point of Grindr is finding local bottom.
You got it, man.
You got it. Yeah, and I mean, Tanaka's point, I mean, I'm not saying going like DGN ape your whole
gen ape your whole port and into into shit like american express i'm saying like taking opportunity
port into shit like American Express.
when opportunity is given is what i'm really really not because i was a good really really
preaching here and uh you know i think like i said it's like if you want to take a starter
position or find some form of allocation in a longer term play. I mean, you know, I mean, sure, you could
buy Bitcoin and, you know, look to outperform in the long run. But I mean, it depends that,
you know, what kind of risk profile you want to take on at the same time and how you're trying to
approach the markets, right? And what manner and what fashion are going to, you know, it's,
it's just a different way of approaching the markets. And if you have
opportunity, you take it. If you get down, if Bitcoin loses $74K, I've talked about it literally
for eight, nine months now, but boomers are going to round trip their bags. That has been my thesis the entire time. You're going to come
down to ETF announcement levels. So that's another 50 plus percent down from here. The whole
relative strength to talk about Bitcoin. I mean, sure, it's held up decently well right now,
but it's also was down multiples from the top compared to the broader markets,
you know, before we had this big sell off even. So it's like, okay, you know, equities had a
little catch up play, you know, but let's not pretend like Bitcoin isn't down bad from the
highs either. You know, I mean, sure, Bitcoin looks great, or looks decent, you know, with
its retest to the previous all time high around, you know, 74 came into like 75, 76 K looks pretty decent. It looks like we're putting in a little
bit of an accumulation model, but taking stabs here and being a contrarian, I think is a, you
know, a great, great, great opportunity, um, or great, uh, perspective to have in these markets
right now. And, uh, I think I'm going to stick by it. You know,
it's when people are screaming bloody murder from the mountain and when people are, you know,
on the opposite side of that argument, you know, thinking that we're going to a million dollars
of Bitcoin in 24 months, you know, playing either side is a great, you know, is a great way to
operate in these markets and has historically done
very, very well.
Man, Naka, that was...
That was my joke.
Hey, hey, hey, hey.
Don't give me...
Mr. Fred said that one up very well.
Man, come on.
Give props to the people.
That was insane, man.
It was good.
All right.
We had to lighten up the mood, that's why.
Now, I have a question.
Donnie, do you think that the banking sector is important in the United States?
Of course.
Right.
So, if you pull up the BKX, which is the big banks, the 13 regional banks in the United States.
And we all know what happened during the Silicon Valley bank collapse.
And if you put it up on weekly, you will see like a head and shoulders,
which developed between 2021 and late 2022, beginning of 2023.
We had the sell-off.
And after that, we had just a very very nice rally
now very similar to what's happening on s&p 500 is the first time since we placed the bottom so
i'm looking also on the chart is the first time since we played the bottom and we went above 50
when the carry starts to look weak so you know that i'm following liquidity you know that i'm
also following like other elements from the market if the bkx meaning the banking sector is kind of rocky and also the regional banks are kind of like
not so resilient these are some early signs man and the early signs are again to be conservative
that's it and tomorrow i think i'm gonna do an update of the Bank of America recession index, the one with the spreads, the OAS spreads.
Because I made a lot of fun of doomers because they were calling for recession since 2022.
And I was like, okay, you call for recession in 2022, 2023, 2024, nothing happened.
Well, now, this indicator, for the first time since 2022, since the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, is going above 4 level.
And above 4, this means that, okay, we are not in a recession, but something is off, you know, so there are some alarm bells singing in my ear.
And I'm saying this not to alarm people people i'm not saying this to scare people
you know that i have been one of the biggest bulls out there it's just to kind of also mentally
prepare ourselves for something that might come and to buy more fucking bitcoin in my opinion that's
the problem with the problem with buying bitcoin is i think donnie's right
which is that you know if if things start a little bit look a little bit worse at some point
the boomer etf buyers will puke and i think bitcoin's going back to 30k i'm just going to
put it out there i'm going to buy my bitcoin back at 30k jesus christ here we go when i thought when
i thought that my my my bearish thesis is good,
here comes Naka to fucking destroy my plan.
No, but realistically, Donny, check BKX and KRX.
Yeah, I'm checking it out.
Yeah, basically, I don't know.
It's just this whole sell-off, this whole fear, everything, right, has just been very narrative-driven.
That's the one thing that doesn't stick well with me to start flipping to a bearish case.
So that's what I was trying to say earlier, is every single narrative-driven anything, right?
We haven't had anything to this extreme yet, so it's a little bit different.
But it's always been better to be a little bit of a
contrarian in this stance. And then there's just so many things pointing to BTC and potentially,
like I said, not for something to actually break or some form of stimulus and just sending the
dollar lower to get this global liquidity expansion fully underway.
And we just know that 80% correlated asset is BTC to that.
And I just want to be on the other side of that.
I don't want to buy into the narrative.
If it gets worse, I'm fine with that.
If we go to 30K, dude, as bad as it is, that's a really good buying opportunity.
So I literally don't care.
I'm backing up the truck also.
30k,
believe me.
Yeah,
yeah.
But,
even just tactically
from the setup right now,
like,
you know,
I've been very accurate
with a lot of TA
and even just tactically
applying all of the context
outside of the chart
right now as well
to not be looking
for longs on BTC
and subsequent assets
like underneath right in the
crypto market I think it's a missed
opportunity so however
high this rally goes I'll be able to see it coming
if it locally tops you know
I'll be the one to call it so
yeah just waiting
for this to unfold I think honestly
within the next 3 to 4 weeks max
you'll get your answer.
Any day now.
Well, Naka, are you willing to take the same bet
as Peter McSchiffenstein?
What bet did he take?
That BTC is going
to 33k. Yeah, that's about
where I think it's going.
Naka, come on, man.
Anytime you've put these
crazy lower-end targets, it ends up
being a bottom, bro.
It could be right now, yeah.
It always could be. We can wake up and BTC can be at 200, bro. It could be right now, yeah. It always could be.
We can wake up and BTC
can be at 200,000.
Naka.
My brother.
Yeah.
I mean,
honestly, I think it probably is a bottom
here.
Well, you know, again,
not certain, but
I wouldn't be surprised if
We have just put in because you remember in in like late Jan of
When Chimp
Yeah, I know
When he was like he was like chimpsu and fucking um what's his name um yeah all these guys were
like definitely not gonna go low we're gonna long it we're gonna long it and then it fucking
nuked to 27k and they got liquidated and then they were like okay maybe this is going lower
and that was the bottom right and i was I was caught offside by that because I've been bearish since like
50k or something.
I've been bearish the whole way down.
I got caught offside. I was worried.
I was worried I missed the bottom.
And then I ended up kind of buying back in
in the complacency shoulder that I had to sell
again.
You have 22 PTSD.
Yeah, so I flip-flopped
a lot there.
I think that's basically where we are in terms of the vibe. You have 22 PTSD. Yeah, so I flip-flopped a lot there. I see.
I think that's basically where we are in terms of the vibe.
I think...
Oh, man. SPX...
If this went to, like, 96k, can you imagine how bullish people would be?
I can see that happening i i could see not much
um like a 10 pump yeah i've been saying this yeah i've been saying this for a minute like
an expedited an expedited version of the range that we did last year from march to august
and ultimately it breaks out in either direction all of a sudden when nobody expects it, right?
Like BTC literally went from $66,000, $65,000 down to $48,000 in a single day.
It was fucking insane.
So I could see that happen after we break out of this range to either direction,
but I could see something like we hit the top end of the range which is like
wait first we'd have to break the march highs which is the yearly open
at 94k i could see us hitting that range between 98 and 99 um and having that be like
our top end of the range and then back down to like 80k or something like that we know what market doesn't know what's up man
so we've been in a range technically for like a month five days no no no no
155 if you want to draw if you draw it from the november um like 87k high to now it's been 155 days and the range last year was 250 days
these are two different ranges though on the chart you had you know the topping range and
the bottoming range so it's like entirely different but um to the last range that we
had it's completely structurally different like completely this is literally an
accumulation that's been forming since the 25th of february so it's two different ranges you had
the range break to the downside and now you're forming an accumulation so wabi when are we going
up well um i'll have to say this We can't take any days off, right?
Because I actually used to work at a calendar factory,
but then I got fired because I took a day off.
You got it?
Oompa loompa.
You got it?
All right, man.
I think it's been a great show.
Guys, thank you all so much for tuning in um i'm pretty sure everyone already here in the audience already follows us uh it is easter week
so i mean markets aren't really gonna do much i understand that equities has some volatility
but nothing that we haven't seen over the last couple of weeks i want
to thank spread donnie naka prometheus thank you all so much for tuning in guys if this is your
first time tuning in we are because bitcoin we're an online financial media company and we produced
multiple daily live streams for you guys throughout the week we have a show for everybody across the
world no matter what time zone you're in we have market check which is our youtube show if you guys
are into all things technical analysis charts charts, graphs, stuff like that,
feel free to tune into that show.
Show is hosted at 11 a.m. ESC or 11.15 a.m. ESC between those two times.
And then our afternoon show is Market Talk hosted by me, Wabi,
where I'm joined by a panel of content creators and like-minded enthusiasts
about all things markets. And we usually rants and banter about all things markets for about an hour hour and a half
same thing with uh market check right both shows usually last uh around that time frame sometimes
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that giant yellow rectangle
that says becausebitcoin.com with the yellow checkmark.
And also feel free to follow Donnie, Naka, Prometheus,
and also Mr. Spread.
Shout out to all of you who contribute to today's space
and shout out to you guys in the audience.
Shout out to you guys that are in the audience
or listening to the recording. Definitely don't take any of this for granted um and shout
out to all of you honestly truthfully well you've been tuning in over the last couple of days couple
of months or you've been with us since the very beginning over the last few years thank you all
so much thank you thank you you guys have a good rest of your day and we'll see you all on the next one. We'll see you all tomorrow for market check at 11 a.m. EST. So with that being said, guys, take care. God bless you all. Peace out. Thank you. you Put on the other head of them for these things,
Sherry's out of hand, sounds and tales.
My thing is, look close up your sleeves.
You got the brand magic smell of bands.
You got some tall, little, little,
more than that one.
Sammy, I've been eating in your pan.
Come on, Sammy!
Come on, you're around the house,
you're gonna do some bad things.
Come on, Sammy.
This one's a little, sir, come with your pleasure, man. you're gonna do it's all that bad I'll say Mr. Lester
I'll make your picture
Let me take your photo
Take it down
Name it
And turn back to
Hey hey hey
Service your restaurant office
I'm your little kid
I'm gonna whisper what it is
You ain't never gonna be like me
Yes sir
He's mad
Self-disservice
You're the boss The king of child say what you wish, it sure is true, bitch.
Ballin' more, bobblin' more, that's all my father, baby, turn all my father, baby.
I'm in the room, I'm in the room, I'm gonna go back. No, no.
No, no.
No, no.
No, no.
No, no.
No, no.
No, no.
No, no.
No, no.
No, no.
No, no. No, no. you
I'm about to help you out.
You wish I really want to know.
You got this thing, my love, no doubt.
Well, you got to do it.
I'm going home.
Mr. L.
I'm going to sing.
I'm going to sing.
I ain't never had a friend.
Never had a friend.
You ain't never had a friend.
Never had a friend.
You ain't never had a friend like me. Never had a friend like me.
