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Market Talk- 100k btc loading!? MASSIVE move for crypto soon!!
Recorded: Dec. 12, 2025 Duration: 1:49:22Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the potential for a bullish market in 2026, highlighting trends in altcoins, the impact of upcoming catalysts, and the importance of strategic trading in a volatile environment.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. music Thank you. Hmm I'm gonna be a little bit Dear Mother, Dear Mother What is this thing you're around
What you're around, what you're around, what you're around, what you're around, what you're around
D&D, how this my life feels, oh you gotta be what's wrong, oh wait
Get it from the things that they call me
Dear Mother, Dear Father
Every thought I think you did'd disprove your random signal.
Always think to erase my every move, children see that I'm harder, you're our everyday inspired.
Innocence, don't feel you without yourself alone.
Find reality, find things like me.
Dear mother, dear father, I'm not supposed to see all what's left of it.
Nothing, ain't nothing.
Can I face the facts I think funny?
Don't guarantee a slight fantasy.
But then you're not giving me my daddy.
Dear mother, dear mother
That's my weak people
I love the blood
Spoiled, unspoken
Have I known that fucking
All of my things
I've always told from you
In which I say not as I know.
Innocence, join me with not yourself done.
Find reality, find me. I'm a big fan. Thank you. I'm a fan of the music. I'm a fan of the music. I'm a fan of the music. I'm a fan of the music.
I'm a fan of the music.
I'm a fan of the music.
I'm a fan of the music.
I'm a fan of the music.
I'm a fan of the music.
I'm a fan of the music.
I'm a fan of the music.
I'm a fan of the music.
I'm a fan of the music. I'm a hell without you
Can I cope without you too
Just in the world that I see
It's a thing to please rescue me
Dear my dear father
Oh brother, dear father Dear my dear I'm back. I'm back. I'm back. I'm back. I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back. I'm back. I'm back. I'm back. I'm back. yo what's going on guys uh first and foremost i i uh want to apologize before i start the stream
if my voice is a little bit raspy um god unfortunately man i have just been coughing up
a freaking lung all day uh i tried training yesterday and that certainly did not make it any better
uh i actually ended up coughing and it seems like it seems like i might have pulled my oblique
just from coughing man which is so odd dude like just getting up sitting down um feels
excruciating bro but that's just a part of life guys we're
just gonna have to roll with the punches here sometimes life just happens just like the market
right you think a certain move is coming and it ends out turning out the opposite direction
and then at that point you kind of have to adjust and be like all all right, how can I mitigate any further pain, right?
So right after the show, what I'm going to do is I'm going to go ahead and get some soup from a nice local Cuban restaurant that's been around here for a couple of decades and i'm just going to chow down a bunch of aminos and um probably get some vitamin
shots like some actual vitamin shots right injected into my veins um and guys honestly man
i understand it's the uh the day after fomc and we're having this little slide down that we've usually seen after FOMC,
but honestly, I am not shaken up at the slightest, to be honest. Again, usually the second half of
December doesn't really provide much volatility. And truth be told, it's really difficult to me to be in the bear side of things.
I know, I know, right, all the day after FOMC, most of the move is drawn down.
I even saw Max's tweet about the whoosh thing, which, I mean, I already know what that implies, right?
I see him here in the audience.
And, hey, man if if that actually happens
then what do you do right but um i think i'd really only be worried if like we were to actually
make new lows and the market has no reaction uh but i mean this little local time frame range that we've had over the last couple of weeks, anytime we touch the mid-80s, call it 83 to 86K, we've tended to have some nice reaction there.
And I understand some altcoins, like, some altcoins are literally just going to make lower lows.
to make lower lows. And during this time period, after a massive liquidation event, as we saw in
1010, there does tend to be shift in liquidity flows as far as where people want to position
outside of the top 10. And we've seen this multiple times throughout the last few years,
right? We saw it after FTX, where a lot of the bid was concentrated in things
like matic believe it or not um even uh what was that one meme floki also got a little bit of a
bid there were a handful of alts that were actually trending uh right before ftx went to zero because
i from from what i remember I believe we were actually pumping.
We pumped to like 22, 23K.
There was a handful of alts.
And then after what happened with FTX,
a lot of the bid just went to these AI names on ETH.
Things like Render, FET, A-G-I-X.
And people were really surprised about that.
ChatGPT came out and all that stuff.
Then the following summer, things like Rollbit were trending,
and after we had that wipeout, I think it was either mid or late August,
the bid went on over to things like Solana after a month and a half
of basically flat price action across the board,
then to things like Injective, Caspa, things like that.
So anytime we have these massive wipeouts,
there does tend to be a stagnant period
where the market wants to find some stuff to bid.
And I've been talking about some interesting things
happening on chain, right?
And last night, we started to see some price action across the board
for things on PumpFun, things like Troll,
and some other names started to pop up.
So it seems like right now people do have some flavor to bid meme coins.
Earlier this week, we saw things like 6.7 Coin go to like 35 mil,
a few others as well.
So even though it might just be a small sector of the market, meme coins on soul, at the
very least, it does provide some sort of signal that should majors actually break their yearly
open, specifically things like BTC, which it did seem like it actually did want to blast
through that 94.3, 94 level.
The market, at least for the more speculative bid, does tend to
kind of foreshadow what it's going to do shortly before majors blast off.
And again, we saw these things in October of 2023.
We even saw it last year in September before BTC even blasted through that high that it was at at 64K, 65, which was in early August, right before the yen carry trade, we saw things like SPX 6900 trend.
Things like GigaChad and Sigma on Solana were also trending before Bitcoin truly had that massive breakout a couple of weeks before the election.
So there's a saying that I always like to say here, right?
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
My voice might sound like a robot, but it is what it is, bro.
I'm going to try to push through here.
And I'm here joined.
Oh, OK.
Let me bring up data as well.
And, you know, I know the the holiday the holiday weekends are coming up right
the week after next week is christmas and the week after that is new year's probably not going to be
a lot of people streaming and all that stuff but for me personally i'm still going to be streaming
i'm still going to be creating content um because honestly i i i truly think next year is going to
be fantastic i don't think year is going to be fantastic.
I don't think it's going to be boring like 2018.
For those of you that were around, you know how brutal that bear market was.
Even as we were bottoming out, we were doing nothing at $6K,
and then within like two, three weeks, we bottomed it at $3K.
It was honestly pretty boring.
It was flat volume followed by a 30% candle to the downside, flat volume, appointed that new CEO, Caroline Ellison, volatility was
basically like the flattest that it's ever been, right? And usually when volatility is at historical
lows, there does tend to be a massive move in either direction. And if you guys just look at something like a Sol or something like a BTC from late August all the way until shortly before the FTX collapse, you'll see that price action was basically nonexistent in either direction unless you were in front of your screen for a random hourly candle.
in front of your screen for a random hourly candle.
That's how some of those markets were.
But now that most of the market is ETF flow driven,
you do have some opportunities outside of major flows, right?
You have the on-chain market, which really wasn't around back then.
As a matter of fact, on Sol, I think the only thing that you were able to do was uh go on radium
and buy ray orca serum um i think there was like one other on-chain ticker on soul i just
can't remember the name right now uh but soul on chain wasn't even a thing so this
entire market has essentially just been etf flows and a lot of the newer volume has gone into uh
on chain specifically things like soul and base and talking about base unfortunately like it's
kind of been dead over there there there really there really
hasn't been any activity to do on bass uh since that ai echo bubble that we had about a month and
a half ago which was really fun man was really fun and i truly thought that like it was going to be
um similar to the little renaissance period that we saw last year in Q4.
But I don't know, then majors just started to go to Goblin Town,
and BTC had that shoulder at 116, man.
But I'm going to try to save my voice.
We got a nice panel up here, guys.
Spaces are recorded, as always.
I want to welcome you all back to Market Talk, brought to you by BB.
I'm your host, King Wabi wasabi wabi and um i'm here joined by uh bobby maxwell rod who now goes by who now goes by max
if you remember bobby maxwell rod man if you remember that but uh guys go ahead and share
some love to the space best way to do that, guys, is by clicking the little spaces tab below.
And then right above our profile pictures, you'll see a nice link that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
Go ahead, hit up the like button, smash up the like button, hit up the repost button as well.
It does a number of things.
The first thing that's going gonna do is help clear my
voice man i do not like sounding like darth vader uh and i also find it annoying when like someone's
voice isn't clear on spaces so i'm kind of annoyed at myself but it is what it is spaces are recorded
and uh once again for those of you that are listening to the recording, Market Talk is now starting at 3.30 p.m. EST rather than 4.30 p.m. EST.
And I understand that this week has basically been a huge hiccup for these spaces.
And, man, hopefully next week can be a smooth week because today there was really no issues.
today uh there was really no issues but uh here's what i'm gonna do i'm gonna pass it on over to max
But here's what I'm going to do.
first because i know on fridays um he actually likes to end uh his date early i didn't really
expect max to to pop in but it was a nice little surprise man so max what's going on bro we were
discussing uh on the show yesterday that uh there's a side of the market that's lying. It's either crypto or it's equities.
And, you know, one might say, geez, gee whiz.
So it seems all the markets were lying.
The day after FOMC and the market makers just decided to end the year in just pure bear chop slop.
Oh, that's a nice little pump you have there.
Would be a shame.
Would be a shame if we have a little bit of a drawdown to end off the week.
But, dude, how are you feeling, man?
I saw your whoosh tweet, and quite frankly, not only am I offended,
not only am I offended, but I'm also a little bit scared in what that could imply.
Welcome, man.
I'm going to try not to laugh because, dude, if I start laughing, I will literally cough up a lung man.
But, brother, I'm going to pass it on over to you first.
Hello, everybody.
Hello, Wabi.
Yep, I am guilty of doing what you said I did.
Whoosh. With the rabbit tapping the watch.
Look, so I went over in a lot of detail yesterday about how something is just not adding up, right?
You're seeing IWM. Again, we're rewinding, we're in a time machine,
we're going back 24 hours, okay? We're seeing IWM just chatting, right? And we know that when U.S. small caps start performing well, typically crypto follows. It's usually not immediately,
but when there's like a high timeframe pivot or reversal on U.S. small caps as a basket, it's typically a tailwind for crypto.
All right. I'm going to try to sum this up a little bit quickly so we avoid redundancy.
But I said to you guys, like, look, indexes are at all time highs.
do you guys like, look, indexes are at all-time highs. IWM, Russell 2000 ETF, all-time highs.
NASDAQ slightly off the all-time highs, but still looking good. S&P pushing new all-time highs. This
was 24 hours ago. Today, we see crypto put in like its fifth BART in the past week or two weeks, which is kind of, you know, it's somewhat common of crypto to do
after, you know, a major volatility expansion like we saw, you know, from the 100K to 81K
sell-off. It's not uncommon to see some choppy ranging price action as, you know, we basically
set up for our next move. So that's kind of to be expected, right?
Five in this short period of time is pretty terrible.
But nonetheless, we're getting towards what I would think
is the end of this crypto range, right?
Since we put in a bottom at 81K roughly,
this price action to me feels somewhat familiar again it feels kind of like
the end of a range um it feels like there's another volatility event coming and i guess i
can get into some of the more specifics as to why i'm i'm feeling that way why i'm seeing that
but i said to you guys yesterday again rew rewinding 24 hours, we talked just now,
quick summary about, you know, stocks were chatting, right? Doing tremendously well and
crypto looked terrible. Altcoins looked horribly weak. Bitcoin, choppy rangy. ETH,
choppy rangy, but spiked up a little bit more than Bitcoin did, relatively speaking.
Sol didn't really do shit, right?
Kind of a mixed basket, but general weakness in crypto.
I said to you guys yesterday, one of them is lying.
Okay.
One of them is lying and we're probably going to know within the next week.
Either stocks are going to start to give back these gains.
And this is basically like a deviation or a future deviation where all these
breakout longers that are aggressively positioned at the highs are basically going to be underwater
in the very near term. And crypto in sort of typical cycle and or like cool off fashion
will kind of foreshadow and lead equities to the downside by a couple months. That is
how we wrapped up last cycle and two cycles ago was crypto downside leading equities by a couple
months, right? Some of the structures that I've actually seen develop in equities literally during
today's session are making me feel a lot more concerned than I was yesterday,
where I was a little bit more neutral leaning, like, well, let's just see what happens.
Well, if equity stick the landing here, you know, and the Russell was the only major index in the
US that was actually in price discovery yesterday or earlier this week. NASDAQ lagging, S&P kind of in
between the two of them. I was kind of thinking like, look, if IWM sticks this landing,
we'll see mega cap tech kind of find some legs. And we'll probably see a transition into, you know, small cap, early cycle, small cap companies, you know, that will thrive during, you know, QE and, you know, cheaper access to credit start doing really well and outperforming.
But that's all obviously hinging upon sticking the landing because there was a lot of active positioning and longing at the highs for all the major indexes led by small caps.
Today, I believe we've gotten some new information, not necessarily any headlines,
but new information in the sense of maybe those buyers from earlier this week aren't exactly as convicted or as strong as they appeared earlier in the week.
I'm seeing some vulnerabilities shape up pretty quickly in equities. Some of the leaders for the
past couple years are looking awfully grim here. NVIDIA, quite frankly, looks terrible.
A lot of other blue chips look weak. The NASq lagging the russell can almost in my view
right here be interpreted similarly to when when ethereum or solana start materially outperforming
bitcoin on a high time frame structural shift where like if bitcoin will make a lower high
and eth will make a higher high that's typically will make a higher high, that's typically like,
that's your warning signal that the end is near. And that's sort of how I'm interpreting what's
going on with things in the equity land is US small caps dramatically for the past couple weeks
outperforming mega cap tech. And then to see the weakness that I saw kind of prevail and
really make itself clear to me towards the end of this week, are telling me that as of right now,
it's more likely that the one who is lying is unfortunately equity's strength are kind of lying to us. I'm still flexible. Okay. I still remain flexible.
If we wake up on, you know, Monday morning and equities are ripping and, you know, showing more
strength, I'll come on here and probably pivot and be like, Hey, they kind of spooked me on Friday,
but you know, things look a little better now. But I'm starting to see some high time frame momentum oscillators show more weakness than I would prefer for equities.
And I think if we are going to see crypto leg down further here, most likely that catalyst is going to be, you know, a period of weakness into the end of the year for equities,
where Santa unfortunately does not come.
He brings us coal.
So I'm not exactly...
That terrifies me.
That terrifies me, Max.
Yeah, I don't exactly love what I'm seeing.
That doesn't mean that we have to sell off and nuke immediately or
something like that. It just means I'm not motivated to start deploying cash and buying
assets here. It just doesn't seem very safe to me given the profile and the positioning skew of the
market right now, which has been, at least for equities, overwhelmingly long.
And you're seeing beta outperforming alpha. And today was a pretty ugly session, an ugly wrap up to the week. Crypto had a disgusting BART this morning, which I don't even put that much
weight into because it's crypto. We could BART back to the upside a little bit here.
But we've seen for Bitcoin specifically, a lot of long delta come in above 92 for the past week and a half.
Every single time met with almost an immediate rejection.
To be fair, we've also seen a lot of shorting efforts down below 90.
They've gotten absorbed equally.
But I think given the backdrop of equities maybe entering a window of weakness here, I think
that it's probably more likely than not at this point, given how I'm seeing the week
wrap up, it feels more likely that there is going to be some more downside.
But again, we're presented with new data, new price action, charts change every second, right? So that can change.
But as of right, I don't like how we closed this week. I do not. Also, the VIX was moving. I think,
I don't know what it closed at. VIX was, I think I saw it at 17 today, you know,
meat sticking higher. It's like, I just don't know if I feel super confident in more upside from here across the board, not before lower first.
But again, it's like I keep saying this strong.
I'm in the mindset of strong convictions held loosely.
If if I sound ultra convicted for downside right now, my bias is for more downside.
But I am very flexible in that. Like if things change dramatically
over the next few trading sessions, I'll come on here and be like, all right, I actually think we
do have more upside, right? It's a really weird, awkward spot where crypto is down a lot already.
Equities look weak, but not horrible yet. They could still salvage it. But as of the weekly close, I'm not feeling the most confident,
I'll be honest. I do think that there's some issues here. Bitcoin had a pretty shallow bounce.
I think consensus was like, hey, I'd love to short 100K. mean there was a day this week where there was earlier this week there
was you know half a billion in long delta added above you know 92 and we couldn't even get it
above 94 you know all those longs puked then they tried again you know right after fomc couple
hundred million of long delta added above 92 puked again. It's like, who are we expecting to step in here, you know,
with, you know, billions of dollars and just like start longing Bitcoin to break it above 94 and a
half, 95. They put in a pretty significant effort and they've been met with absorption
almost in an instant. Every single time they've tried to long it up. I've been watching it very,
very closely. So again, strong convictions held
loosely, but I don't particularly love the profile of the market and the positioning skew right now.
Man, I'd love to get Data's point on what you said. Data, what's going on, it's been uh it's been a while man how's it how's it going then the last
time that we spoke was um i think shortly after btc bounced out of like 80k and that was uh our
previous range what's up brother how are you hey what's going on wabi good to see you man and yeah
glad to be here as always yeah the market's been very interesting the past few weeks. Obviously, we've had multiple BARTs, as you guys were saying. And I think
currently it's just, I mean, a lot of it's just a wait and see game. I mean, I know we have a lot
of things coming down the pipeline. We have Japan, the Bank of Japan's meeting December 18th and 19th,
the ECB, I think meeting December 18th. We have, I believe the FOMC minutes on December 30th.
And then, you know, obviously the treasury buybacks are happening over the next 30 days
now for 40 billion and eventually over the next few months after that.
And so we still have some, you know, volatile times ahead of us.
And I think the big thing, what I've been watching with the market is the market structure.
So I've been watching Bitcoin and Ethereum make the market structure. So I've been watching Bitcoin
and Ethereum make higher lows over the past week or two. And that's something where whenever you're
breaking a downtrend, you look for higher lows as the first change in structure, breaking those
trend lines, et cetera. And so that's something I've been watching closely. Right now, Bitcoin's
big level is 89.2K, closing the daily above that. And we actually wicked to that level exactly just a
few days ago. And so if we break that, then yeah, we could definitely be in another downtrend,
right? Because technically Bitcoin's in a bear flag right now on the daily. So that uptrend
is what I'm watching, that flag pattern, if that breaks down or not. But I think with the overall
market, it's very reactionary. And I think like you guys were saying, I mean, it's kind of in a weird time right now where stocks are breaking all-time highs.
The VIX now is near 17.
And like Max was saying, and now it's just waiting to see is crypto going to catch up, right?
Is crypto going to have that pump higher because of Q4, because of, you know, I mean, I know the treasury bill buybacks aren't QE.
Because of, you know, I mean, I know the Treasury bill buybacks aren't QE.
They aren't monetary stimulus.
But is that going to be something that's going to potentially, you know, cause enough hype for us down the line?
I know that Q1 may be potentially bullish.
That's what I'm looking for as well.
A couple of friends of mine are looking for an echo bubble.
Because we do have, you know, the potential of maybe some further rate cuts, not in January, but maybe February or March.
And then Trump's stimulus down the line and a few others.
But I think you just have to look for those outperformers right now.
And we still have those.
I mean, in the meme coin space, there's been memes that are breaking 10 mil and there's
been some strong performers recently.
And so it's not to say the market's not completely dead.
I mean, you still have liquidity, but it's very, very fractionalized.
And so it's not like everything's pumping.
It's like, you know, you guys were saying every pump's getting sold off into there's no real
continuation that's happening. And so I'm really just playing this level by level and taking
profits along the way because the game is no longer, you know, hodl and just hope for the best.
It's like, no, you better take profits along the way because most likely you're going to bar back
down. And until we get, you know, some type of continuation, some type of follow through, I think that being risk off per se is still the
good move, but you can still take advantage of obviously these catalyst pumps, if you want to
call them that, ahead of the FOMC meetings or post FOMC meeting. And right now I'm just being
patient and I'm not trying to overtrade.
If you just look at some of the indicators, I mean, we have the stock RSI on the daily
for Bitcoin and Ethereum overbought and it was forming bearish divergence on Ethereum as well.
And so technicals are still working. And so that's what I'm sticking to right now and not
trying to complicate it too much because I know it's easy once things start pumping to get into that FOMO state, that euphoria state and just think it's going to continue.
But I mean, until we break a lot of these important levels, I mean, Bitcoin right now,
94K is big and then you have 96 to 97K, which is around the 200 EMA, the 100 EMA on the daily.
And so there's still a lot of resistance ahead of us. And not to mention the 50-week EMA, just around 100K.
And so it's until those levels are broken, you can't really say we're starting this bull run yet.
And I know a lot of people want to think that, but you just have to play it level by level.
And so that's what I've been looking at right now.
I'm just looking at any outperformers in the market that I see, you know, those that are absorbing a lot of the sales.
Like I said, I've seen a lot of those on Solana and, you know, a few others.
But I think that people are just looking for some strong performer to hold on to.
I mean, you can see just the way retail is bouncing from coin to coin.
It's like they want a winner.
And so it could definitely happen.
I mean, we're in Q4, we're in December.
Usually there's some type of big rally at the end. But at the same time, I mean, as history repeats, usually as you transition
from December to January, you have that drop. And so I think that's where people are going to
remain cautious. And I think it's just waiting to see how those meetings go on the 18th and 19th
with the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. I know Max was talking about, or you guys
were talking about the carry trade unwinding and what happens when Japan's raising rates.
And so that's going to be another unknown
that people are going to be watching for.
But at the end of the day, it's just,
you have to play it safe
and just making sure you're taking profits along the way.
And then if those good opportunities present themselves,
just keep playing the range
until it's broken one way or the other.
Data.
So that buyback thing, we were discussing it yesterday.
That's pretty much the same exact thing that Yellen did as the market was bottoming out for
equities in late October of 22. I'm right on that, aren't I? Yeah, I believe she did something
similar with that. And when I was watching the FOMC meeting, I was streaming the whole thing.
And Powell made it a point to say, you know, this isn't monetary stimulus.
This is just, you know, we were a little bit low.
We have to start buying back.
And so it was kind of rebalancing in a sense.
And I think in a way, because everyone's waiting for QE, right?
Like QE is when we bottomed historically.
Not when QT ends, but not when we cut more rates,
but when QE starts.
And so the fact that Powell said
this is a monetary stimulus per se,
but some people are calling this QE light.
I've seen that term thrown around.
And so I think, yes, when Yellen was doing that,
you know, towards the bottom,
I think there is some,
I think there are some points of that where, yes, we may be near a bottom now. And if we start stepping on the gas,
if there's any hint of quantitative easing, like actual quantitative easing with monetary policy,
like, yes, then I would be comfortable saying, okay, we're probably going to have a nice little
echo bubble in Q1, which I still believe is very possible. And so now it just depends,
you know, the economic data that comes out,
because I know a lot of it's been delayed.
What is that going to say?
Is that going to warrant potentially QE actually starting?
And I think the treasury buybacks are a good start.
Even Powell saying he's going to do it for a couple months.
And then also Powell saying that, you know,
rate hikes are not on the table.
Someone asked him about that.
He said, no, it's just either neutral, no change or rate cuts. And so that was a big, I think that was a big deal
at the FOMC. And so we know that rate hikes aren't on the table. We know that QE potentially
still on the table. And then obviously we have the new Fed share in May with Kevin Hassett,
but that's still a ways away. But there's still catalysts on the horizon. And that's what crypto
is based off of hype. It's based off of these catalysts on the horizon, and that's what crypto is based off of hype.
It's based off of these catalysts because people always need something to look forward to.
Otherwise, then you get the bear market because everything's played out, right?
And so, yeah, I definitely agree that it could be a start to something bigger.
It's just waiting for that data to come out and, you know, and acting accordingly.
That crypto data, bro, that crypto data. That's a real thing. But dude,
anytime QE has started, it seems like the end of the world. There was QE1, which started to occur in the summer of 2008. And the market didn't even bottom until like nine months later after Obama met with Paul Volcker, which was honestly quite scary.
The day, like the exact day that Paul Volcker met with Obama, the S&P 500 bottomed that 666 right when they shuck hands.
And you can look at the tape like the S&P bottomed out right at that moment, which is honestly terrifying, man.
Man, I think it'd be better if Basant became the Fed chair, man.
But, you know, it's crazy, man.
This is probably like the only year where gold has outperformed BTC year to date, which is honestly a meme, right?
Peter Schifelstein won this year, but only this year, right?
And he's always been looked at as a meme in the crypto space because of the same gold versus BTC debates that have been going on
for like 12, 13 years. And wouldn't it be such a meme if like Raul Powell ends up being right
and next year is actually quite bullish, despite whatever like mini volatility event that's caused,
right? Because he makes some good points. I believe he said it during the solano breakpoint conference where basant is essentially guiding the market and
i mean since since uh since trump got in during his inauguration day
basant has been spot on in the market like he has guided the market as as uh as Donnie says it, right? Step by step, incrementally, the playbook, right?
And it's kind of ironic because like I believe about two weeks ago,
Besant had stated to taper expectations from the market for the next couple of months, right?
And then you'll see a new boom, right?
And then the IWM breaks out.
So it's like, huh, okay, maybe that's a little taste of what's to come in short times, right?
And I think people are really underestimating the power that Besant has on flows.
underestimating the power that Bessette has on on flows and um we discussed this on the show
yesterday where it's like everyone has access to technicals right and if we paid attention to
technicals in April bro people would have said dude that is a bear market uh BTC is probably
going to gap down to like 60 65 uh but then Bessette, I believe on Tuesday, on the 6th or 7th of April,
he basically said that the VIX is topped.
6-7?
The VIX is topped.
I said 6-7.
Oh, oh my goodness.
Oh no, oh no.
I can't laugh, I can't laugh, dude.
I'll start talking.
You triggered him.
I don't want that to happen.
I don't want that to happen. I don't want that to happen.
I do not want that to happen, man.
The pain in my oblique is honestly, like, unbearable, man.
But I still want to train either way, dude.
I'm not going to stop training.
But, yeah, dude, data.
And as far as on-chain like right now the current ceiling seems to be like 25 30 mil we saw franklin hit like 25 67 coin hit like 35
and honestly say this is q1 of 2022 right there are probably still some like fa coins um that are bottomed out here and
just look at things like caspa in 2022 uh maybe i'm missing another another coin as well um
eth bottomed out before the broader market did at 800 right so there are some anomalies out there
and i look at something like akita and it's like, bro, it looks like anyone that wanted to sell this thing has sold.
And I believe Stripe did a deal with them of like a billion dollars or something like that.
And you're actually able to onboard Fiat onto the chain.
uh basically the same thing that solana did in 2022 and um i think there are some fundamental
Basically the same thing that Solana did in 2022.
coins that are that are out in the market right now that you could honestly buy at these prices
and before the trump administration finishes off in 2028 will probably trade significantly higher
i think like there's just going to be a point dude where it's like what do you deem value right because there are many stories many stories in ancient ct land right where like btc was breaking out started to break
out uh in late 2016 going into 2017 and you had a few of these technical traders that were rating
that were waiting for these perfect retests and And they missed the boat. They missed the boat.
They missed it.
And being in crypto, you have to ask yourself one question.
What is your pain tolerance?
Your pain tolerance of not selling the top, not selling the shoulder,
selling the shoulder, selling the bottom, selling too early.
selling the bottom, selling too early.
But the biggest pain of all, right, is missing the pump.
There is no great – there are very few things, right, in markets
that make you feel more pain than missing the pump.
What would you say to that, brother?
Oh, 100%.
And I think here's the thing, too, is there's always opportunities, right?
And I think that a lot of people, they see a lot of these tokens pumping, a lot of these memes pumping,
and they feel left out, so they want to top last, or they want to try to catch the next one.
And in this market, it's almost negative EV just to try to FOMO in,
because every pump gets sold off into, for a majority, right?
Obviously, you have a few exceptions.
But I think that just sticking
to the basics of technicals and waiting until okay, you know, his major support on the daily
weekly while the RSI stock RSI is oversold, and maybe we're at a trend line or EMA support as
well. Like, okay, cool. Like that's going to give you the best chance in this market. It's almost
like a trader's market when arranging as much as we are. And just to follow back to what you were
saying about Rao Powell, you know, saying that we're going to have another pump next year. I think that there is some validity
to that. I know that CZ was saying potentially the super cycle is still going to happen. Trump
is saying there's going to be many more all time highs in the stock market. And then you have,
like, Rose saying the same thing, that we're going to have a pump next year. And I think
that would definitely catch people off guard.
I mean, the five-year cycle, how many people have you heard that now the past few months, right?
Four-year cycle is broken, five-year cycle.
Not saying it's going to happen.
I mean, because the four-year cycle played out.
October we topped.
But I still think there is an argument to be said for pumping higher.
And the argument is technically QE hasn't started. We can still have more rate
cuts. Kevin Hassett's getting in. Trump's going to have his monetary stimulus, $2,000 check mid-2026.
And we still have other things down the line that could pump this market midterms our next year.
And Trump really wants to do good. So obviously the market doing good is going to help him out
on that. And so we have a lot of these things, not to mention the crypto adoptions going crazy. You
said Kida with Stripe and their partnership. I mean, so there's, you know, adoption is happening.
The biggest thing and the thing that we really had to pay attention to this last time around was
there's so much bullish news, it's hard to time the exact top or euphoric moment because now,
you know, any of these things that happened in the past six months could have been a top based off less cycles and the things that were happening.
Right. But like that whole thing now is kind of broken because there's so many positive catalysts.
There's so much adoption happening. So many institutions and banks are buying.
It's like, well, it's kind of hard to top that exact, you know, my taxi driver's buying Bitcoin is the top.
Like it's not that easy anymore because there's so many variables at play.
And so I think that, you know, the best you can do in this environment is like, okay, I'm just going to wait until the risk reward is on my side for some of these strong tokens.
And, you know, have these tokens or whatever I'm interested in, are they respecting their support levels, right?
Are they making higher lows or is it just they're constantly in a downtrend, the market structure is weak, and there's no point in buying them?
I think that's really the big thing, just looking for those outperformers, looking for those strong performers, and then betting on those.
And I think you mentioned 25 to 35 mil being the top for a lot of these memes.
I think that it's just indicative of the overall market and the fragmentation of capital that's happened.
I mean, for all these platforms that have launched, the pump funds, the four dot memes,
everything is just thousands of coins being launched per day.
And I know this is being talked about the past year.
It's just killed the market in terms of these runners.
And in order to have a really good runner, it's like you've got to have almost everyone on it at this point.
Like if you're trying to get a runner on Solana, you try to get gotta have almost everyone on it at this point like if you're trying
to get a runner on solana you try to you know try to get the bonk team on it try to get the fomo team
on it trying to get you know uni pcs pow like all these guys on it and then maybe you can have that
hundred mil runner right but until then it's like people are just adhd would jump from coin to coin
oh we got a six seven meme here oh we got this other meme
here oh we got this uh you know franklin meme here and then it gets vamped and then you have
another one and it's just pump versus bonk and like it there's always people trying to take
attention away and so you need really need this you know this i don't know what you want to call
it but this like gathering moment where everyone's just backing one thing and and until we get that you need you need people to come together like they
did for pepe exactly that's what you're saying yep or a whiff dude dude when when whiff came out man
like i think that's what really started um like the good times dude ansem called it out at 10 mil and people had time to shove between like 15 to 20 you know
exactly i think tommy i think um not tommy sully uh sully sully's like yeah i think this is a
a real winner here man and whiff went into uh escape velocity. Now it's just a matter of like, all right, if crypto is going to go through,
rather than like a full year bear market, maybe,
and this is something that I've prospected, right?
Dude, what if we just crab for eight months, man,
and you have some opportunities on chain?
And this is why I say this, right?
I'm not crazy.
Don't call me a crazy person.
But if you look at the way, right, if you look at the way, I'm not talking about protein here.
But if you look at the way that we hit 126K, right, and we were to compare it to the way we topped out in January,
we were to compare it to the way we topped out in January, it is a, it's basically somewhat
of a marginal high that we can compare to 69,000 in November of 21 to 74,000 in March of 2024,
right? And if you look at the way price action has been since that time period right since since since october right you
you see somewhat you see somewhat of the same discrepancies right one you see precious metals
outperforming right which we saw that with gold during that during that crab from march to august
two you see select names in the stock market outperforming uh pretty much most of the high
caps in the crypto asset class which we saw from march to august um and we're also seeing some
small opportunities on chain just as we saw from march to august so my thing is like dude what if
we just do this weird crab until Powell leaves office?
That's very much possible.
It'd be seven months.
And then you get that volatility expansion that people are waiting for in the VIX, which
correlates to, I don't know, dude, like a 10%, 15% slide down on the major indices,
which could happen over the span of like a week and a half.
Indices right now, over the last three years, have had somewhat of the same
volatility that we saw during the Bill Clinton regime, which was from like 1996 all the way to
late 99. It's basically almost the exact same same market not only from a monetary policy standpoint
but also like you know as far as their gdp goals which the administration has said this is talking
macro now not not not so much price but they've gone on record to say that they're shooting for
like what was it five to seven percent gdp and that that that that that would take i don't man
i shouldn't be laughing uh that would take the russell to like 400 dude that's that's that's
massive man that's massive you understand what that means for like ethan soul that basically
means that those holders are gonna win dude just from buying those high caps that that means that those holders are going to win dude just from buying those high caps that
that means that like people buying iron are basically having the same opportunities at
these valuations as far as like buying eth at like 500 bucks it's basically the same exact thing dude
you're basically buying eth at 500 bucks with iron being at like 40 bucks uh valuation right now is at like 11 billion it could
easily go to 100 billion if gdp uh actually goes towards those levels there even some people that
say that like 20 gdp wouldn't even be out of the question which is massive right of course that's
a bit of an overstatement you know they like to they're bull posting their economy basically right but
five seven percent gdp is doable and yeah i i i i just think we're in for some exciting times man
i'm gonna pass it on over to josh i haven't heard from him in a minute josh what's going on bro how
are you feel free to give your thoughts on the conversation man and i want to throw something
in your direction brother to kind of welcome you back on the show. Lately, we've been kind of yapping about how
the emergence of like sports betting platforms and also prediction markets over the last few years
have attracted so much retail liquidity. And like, we have to think to ourselves, man,
this is probably the same capital that would have gone into into the crypto market.
And I know that's something that you're probably not that you're probably, but it's a field that you've been tapping into lately, man.
So feel free to give some of your thoughts.
Yeah, no, I mean, you know, so far from the entire conversation, I think I agree with a lot of everybody up here.
I mean, there's a lot of confusion just out in the market because it just started to
really structurally shift. I think prediction markets are the easiest to kind of
start talking about where the retail attention has started to flow.
And the easiest way to explain this for anybody that might be just listening into here,
you know, go on your app store and just look at what are the top financial apps.
All the top financial apps right now are not Coinbase.
They're not Crypto.com.
They're not, I mean, Robinhood's definitely probably scaling, but they're integrating sports betting.
You have Vlad speaking, I think, in five days or six days.
And I'm going to imagine they're going to announce their predictions, updates in that actual keynote speech he's doing. But yeah, you know, I'm getting ready to gear up
for the next World Esport Trading Competition,
returning prediction markets entirely to esport.
Polymarket just had the greatest month ever in terms of volume,
doing billions and billions and billions in volume.
And I think partially this comes from, there's two reasons.
Number one is I think crypto has just periodically gotten pretty boring from a retail standpoint.
You know, you don't have the NFT craze. You don't have the attraction to the retail audience.
If you guys are talking about crypto to just your everyday friends, you might have had conversations with friends that were even once in crypto that just stay away from it because they're bored of it.
They think it's just kind of it's kind of gross. They've lost money in it.
They've been destroyed just a kind of month after month or cycle after cycle. And it's pushed them away. But I
guarantee you, you know, one out of two, the people you talked about that have left crypto,
they have a sports betting app on their phone. And so that's a huge takeaway. And if you guys
study anything about just cost affordability in the United States. When you go to COVID-19, when you go to 2008,
when you go to 2001, anytime there's like a very big discrepancy within our market and a huge cost
affordability crisis, it actually has a very high correlation to the amount of spending that is put
into prediction markets or casinos like Las Vegas or gambling, online gambling, et cetera. And so it makes complete
sense right now in today's market where we're not going through just a structural shift and
liquidity flow. We're dealing with an entire new revolution, which is the intelligence era.
And if you guys don't know what the intelligence era is, is essentially this year in 2026,
you're going to be seeing the largest AI companies that were once looked at as pretty much shit companies that weren't ever going to produce revenue. The SpaceX's,
the open AIs, even the Anthropics, et cetera. These are all going to IPO. And you're talking
about valuations that will be more or less in the trillions of dollars with all of the IPOs.
So you can actually cross correlate a lot that are, and this is what I've been studying on a
lot lately, Wabi. I don't have a direct answer to this yet because there's so much information
that goes into it. But what is actually going to be the liquidity flow that changes the spreads on
our order books in the crypto market as these companies do decide to IPO? And if people don't
remember this, SpaceX sitting on like roughly half a billion dollars in Bitcoin, it would make it
fundamentally, I think one of, if not, it definitely would be one of, I don't think it's the largest, but tech companies with
a Bitcoin treasury or a corporate balance sheet. So that's huge in itself. So moving into 2026,
I think there's two things that are happening. I think on one side, you're dealing with an
an entirely new monetary and fiscal era that is being pushed by the Trump administration.
entirely new monetary and fiscal era that is being pushed by the Trump administration.
This is cross-referenced over to the delay in economic data reports from the BLS that we are
going to be waiting on and more likely going to be receiving towards the end of this month,
if not early January. And that was due to the government shutdown from the Democratic Party.
What I expect out of that is going to be inflated numbers from the Trump admin and claiming that the economy is way healthier than it is, followed by mainstream
media Democrats saying that all the economic being given out is altered or false in order
to make Trump look good for midterms. So they're going to be dealing with a huge amount of media
pressure from that, which if you guys watched Jerome Powell's later speech, he made it very clear he's going to be very skeptical of all the data that pours back in
from the reports that they have been delayed on due to the government shutdown. Now, all of that
really matters because that opens up the liquidity conditions moving into January on whether or not
the Fed is actually going to continue to raise or cut, or sorry, not raise, but cut interest rates. Right now, it's about a 75% probability. Nobody's really
expecting a huge shift there. But even at the end of the day, I don't think it necessarily matters
because all you really need to know about with the Federal Reserve right now is that HACET more
than likely is going to be taking the place of Jerome Powell here in June. And markets are going
to be expecting rate cuts, whether Jerome Powell does it or not, sometime in the next six to 12 months. And that is opening up
a whole new conversation with liquidity. So what I think is happening in the crypto side of things
is going back to those two things. One is a huge shift in monetary and fiscal policy,
which is affecting liquidity on all fronts in both our
markets and traditional markets. And that is where retail is really hurting because we're stuck in a
very, very slim spread right now. I think Max was talking about earlier, we don't have enough longs
of purchasing power to push us above that $94,000 level. In terms of shorts, we don't really have
enough shorts that are pushing us below that $80,000 level and just leaving retail completely, utterly confused. Are we going to go to 65K? Are we going
to go back up to 105K? Or are we just going to consolidate in this choppy bearish trend?
And that is very directly impacting where retail is now moving to, which is the prediction markets,
which month over month are growing at exponential rates. And I expect that to continue
well into 2026 and 2027. As I'm also part of, I've talked to the people that are developing
the bills and the legislation, I'll be pushing some of these in January, that are deregling
the entire prediction market. You had Donald Trump come out yesterday announcing he might
eliminate capital gains tax on all of your giveaways or your sweepstakes, which includes gambling.
And that's going to have some really big effects moving into, of course, the prediction markets that are partnering with Google, UFC, and everything as a whole.
The second side of it is the cost affordability crisis.
Now, the cost affordability crisis, what I think this is simply going to reference to, and this is pretty much my opinion, but I think a lot of people might agree with this,
What I think this is simply going to reference to, and this is pretty much my opinion, but I think a lot of people might agree with this, is the only people getting completely smacked and fucked in this market right now are the middle class.
Your poverty levels are getting more social programs than ever.
They're not really feeling the heat as they're the ones voting for rent freezing in New York City, and you see this on a democratic social front in most of your policies.
front in most of your policies. It's why the Zoran Mamdani's are being elected.
It's why the Zoran Mamdani's are being elected.
Now, in my opinion, it's no coincidence that Zoran somehow won New York as mayor and is being very
negative against corporations. He wants to put bigger taxes, et cetera, on all these corporations
in New York City at the same time that the Texas Stock Exchange is looking to open up. The Texas
Stock Exchange is expected to start listing in the second half of 2026, which is funded by BlackRock, etc., Citadel, Ken Griffin, who runs 35% of spread on all of your stock market.
I think there's a lot of liquidity, billions in liquidity that's going to open up and flow over to those exchanges.
So the real question there is, with this cost affordability crisis, is what brings back retail to crypto?
And I think the sad answer here is I think it's shifting quite a bit.
I think we have moved past the 15-year dilemma of trying to solve the blockchain trilemma of
security, decentralization, and scalability. When you look at all your L1s, your L2s, your L3s,
we today have efficiently solved these three issues. Decentralization has became a complete
and utter myth that is talked about by Larry Fink and all these large institutions that are using privatized blockchain
to tokenize their own systems. That was expected. So if they're using this, it means they've gotten
to the point where scalability and security is at scale. And JP Morgan just a few days ago,
Jamie Dimon came out and said they processed $16 trillion in one given
day on blockchain through their tokenized models. And they're looking to get ready to launch their
JP token, their digital dollar, their stable coin. So what I'm looking for in 2026 is I'm not
bearish at all. I think people that are bearish are, I think they're too stuck on the old cycle of crypto, which was solving that
blockchain trilemma. I think we're entering a completely new era where you're going to be
looking at a lot of centralized companies, tokenizing their own systems, integrating
their own stable coins and their pay-fi rails. And that's going to access a lot of new liquidity.
liquidity. The problem is, is a lot of people holding the Cardano's, the PolkaDots, the Solana's,
The problem is, is a lot of people holding the Cardano's, the PolkaDots, the Solana's,
the Polygon's. Unless these ecosystems take their fat treasuries and they start actually focusing
on the tokenization and converting their tokenomics as something that is, let's say,
deflationary, it's revenue producing, which Polygon would be a great example. Polymarket's
producing billions and billions and billions in volume. I would love to see them change their
tokenomics. But it's still going to take some time to actually get approved,
get faster, do buyback programs, become deflationary, etc. And so it just is a really
tough conversation you have to have with retail now in crypto, which is understanding that the
next era of tokens are revenue generating platforms that are institutionally driven,
where there's demand with it.
The easiest example goes back to, Wabi, what you just asked me on the prediction side,
is polymarket.
Polymarket should be what everybody is studying because polymarket's being integrated into everything, MetaMask, ransom wallet, UFC, Google.
There is billions and billions and billions of dollars that will be transacted through
that network, and you're talking about a minimum $40 billion IPO.
So if they decide to launch a token, which that's where the Texas Stock Exchange comes into this, Paul Atkins has been speaking on this pretty heavily.
You're looking at easier listings. If you list as an IPO, an ICO does not classify and fall under
the same category as the SEC. So you're more likely going to fall under the CFTC. You're now
dealing with a federal AI
program instead of state-based regulation, which means it's going to be easier for small and mid-cap
companies to get lists on the Texas Stock Exchange. And to wrap up the conversation,
that's where I think the liquidity comes from. I think the second half of 2026, if you're having
an IPO of SpaceX at $1.5 trillion, if you're having an Anthropic and OpenAI, ByteDance and all these companies push multi-trillions in valuation on IPOs, whether it's the NASDAQ or the Texas Stock Exchange, you could probably look and comfortably find a 1% to 5% variation off liquidity to flow into your crypto market just like we saw in 2020 with Uber.
to your crypto market, just like we saw in 2020 with Uber. Now, the difference is obviously the
QE moment. In 2020, we were dealing with a $3 trillion injection from the Fed, where today,
we're not dealing with any injection. We technically still haven't started QE. There's
just forms of QEs that are starting to start, but we're still reducing rates. So I don't think it's
going to be as big and dramatic as an impact that we saw in the 2021 board. So to summarize there is just, yeah, I think retail needs to get comfortable with changing market conditions.
I think billions of dollars in liquidity is going to pour into certain sectors, and that might float into crypto.
It just may not be what retail expected for 2021 or 2017 as it moves towards real revenue generating platforms
that are tokenizing massive liquidity cycles
from these institutions, banks, and prediction markets.
Man, that was a cook session, man.
Jeez, dude.
Man, you know, talking about, like,
the usual crypto market participant, right,
when we talk about, like, four-year cycles and all that stuff,
I think what needs to happen, bro, is like just Bitcoin just going above 120
and making new all-time high.
I think that that would be like a case where you'd honestly just go up only for a bit.
I think right now like the market is just at the mercy of whales that are like,
all right, it's been 18 months since the halving.
Time to sell my bags, right?
I don't really care what's going on.
It's been 18 months since the halving.
Time to sell my bags.
Data, feel free to give some of your points, man, to what Josh had said.
I feel like this is something where either you or Evan could give some of your thoughts to follow up with what Josh has said.
Because a lot of it's the truth, man.
Most retail money that would have gone into this market have gone into Polymarket, Koushi.
into polymarket kalshi um and and and honestly like some of the odds if you were to compare those bets
compared to like buying a new altcoin um it's probably a lot more beneficial um there's no
like kll bundles or any of that stuff um and honestly like the friction is a lot
is a lot lot lot less less with that form of speculation.
Yeah, 100%.
No, I agree.
Absolutely.
I think that Josh is absolutely spot on with where the attention is going right now.
And I think whenever we saw Polymarket taking off, we knew inherently that prediction markets were the next big narrative.
We knew inherently that prediction markets were the next big narrative.
And when Calcia entered the space and then you're seeing, like he was saying, you know,
Polymarkets partnering with MetaMask and integrating with all these other wallets and these platforms and institutions.
It's, I mean, it's literally, you know, it's legalized gambling basically.
And it's where now the attention, just like what happened with Pump Fund, 4.Meme and all of those,
now that's shifting over because obviously memes are dying and everything's dying on any type of pump. Now you have that attention going, well, hey, maybe I can make
money off these prediction markets. So I've seen people post their P&Ls and everything. And
honestly, I mean, why wouldn't you if you saw a better opportunity there? And I think also
with the way the stock market's been making all time highs and crypto hasn't really been
performing like it should be. It's kind of saying, well, maybe a lot of those people
are now moving to the stock market
and then trading stocks instead of crypto.
And I know a lot of platforms are integrating stock trading,
perpetual trading on their platforms.
And so you have this meld between Web 2, Web 3 now
where the attention is no longer like crypto is a new kid on the block.
It's like, okay, these other narratives are forming
that's taking attention away from that. And it's a lot harder for crypto to catch
on because of that. And I think it's just you have to be willing to adapt just like with anything.
And I think that, you know, that's the game is always evolving. So where attention goes,
money flows. And so if attention is now in prediction markets, okay, what platforms,
what protocols companies are taking advantage of that? Josh was saying revenue generating.
And I think absolutely.
I mean, the clearest sign of that is obviously where Hyperliquid was just up only because
all their revenue, they were just buying back the token and they were making money off liquidations
and it was just a flywheel.
And even with PumpFun, right?
And so when you have these platforms that are actually revenue generating and they can
reinvest that back, that's where you end up having that flywheel and that perpetual cycle of higher lows and just that attention where everyone's focused on that.
And so, yeah, I think I think it's just now looking for, OK, where the next opportunity is, is there going to be another prediction platform?
Is there going to be another big narrative that's forming?
I know that AI, robotics, quantum is another big narrative down the line, especially for stocks.
Now, quantum resistance is a big thing, right?
Is there going to be any type of protocol that's going to integrate that technology?
And when that's actually a legitimate thing, then maybe that's going to be the next big investment.
But yeah, I think there's opportunities coming and you just have to follow where the attention is going.
And like you said, you know, we do need these whales that were following that four-year cycle.
And now it's like, okay, are they going to come back whenever certain narratives return or certain capitals start flowing back in or QE actually starts?
I mean, those are the big questions.
But for now, it's just you got to follow the money.
You got to follow the attention and just play it that way.
So, I mean, play it safe at the end of the day.
Evan, what's going on, bro?
Welcome.
What's up, man?
Are you able to hear me okay?
Great.
Loud and clear.
Dude, I hope to one day have a Giga Chat voice like yours, bro.
Like, it's so, like, it's so clear and like very masculine bro thank you man
not not to not to glaze bro not to glaze it's flattering man yeah it's it's it's very flattering
i guess i'm blessed in this way um but yeah i mean a lot of a lot of good stuff was said i came in
late but a lot of good stuff was said you know from josh Joshua, from CryptoData. Nice to meet you. I think, you know,
the four-year cycle is both dead and alive in some ways. I mean, the biggest thing I would say is
that really, well, like when whales sell Bitcoin, the first thing to think about is like, what are
whales putting the gains from Bitcoin generally into after they, you know, rinse it through Zcash. I'm just kidding.
But, you know, S&P 500, a lot of times, you know, would be one of those vehicles, bonds,
you know, could be another vehicle. Gold and silver could be another vehicle.
When did Bitcoin top out against the S&P 500? Previously, you know, this year it was July.
One of the biggest whale wallets, you know, speaking of whales, I think it was like a whale wallet that turned not a lot of money into a billion dollars over like 15 years.
They got out in July, I think.
And that was when Bitcoin topped out against S&P 500.
Previous four-year cycle, well, previous bull market year, 2021, S&P 500, Bitcoin topped out against S&P 500 as early as March of 2021, which is kind of crazy because,
you know, there was a lot more happening after that, especially for altcoins and all that.
You know, so you look at kind of that area. And I think, you know, kind of in our general kind
of cycles, I mean, 2018 is interesting year to look at because obviously S&P 500 and NASDAQ did
very well for the first half of 2018. Then you had kind of in
quarter four was where you came down quite a bit and made it kind of an uglier year.
My view, when I look at the technicals, you know, from a technical perspective, it does look similar
in a lot of ways to the end of 2017. It looks similar to the end of 2021, you know, and then
you look at diminished returns and all that. And it generally does. I mean,
it's almost some things are so similar. It's like we're in a simulation because, you know,
you look at Ethereum, for example, and you look at like the weekly, the weekly looks so similar to
the jump you had for Ethereum in February of 2022. And, you know, every single cycle, you know,
this could be diminished returns, less volatility over time, you know, being the reason for this,
but every cycle things generally, you know, bottom out quicker. So maybe we're two months
early, the earlier than last cycle. And then, you know, from where for our jump right now,
that would be the case where things just bore us to death over the next month to two months,
maybe into the next FOMC meeting at the end of January, where you come back down to like 27,
2800. Then you make another high up to 3700 by the end of
January or something. And then you kind of come down. That's if it plays up very similar to our
last cycle. I mean, the same could even be said to a certain extent, if you look at like April 2018,
hence the two month kind of pattern, April is two months after February, if you're following that
kind of pattern. And then you came up, you know, into May of 2018, then you kind of just fell off
a cliff from there that was Ethereum. So if it's like that, you know, into May of 2018, then you kind of just fell off a cliff from there. That was Ethereum.
So if it's like that, you know, you got maybe one to two more months, you know, end of January
would be maybe a top at maybe all the way up to 4,000, you know, 3,800, those areas.
And then you kind of fall off a cliff there.
But the positive thing to realize here is that obviously Ethereum bottomed out earlier
than Bitcoin in 2022.
So if it bottoms out, you're following kind of that pattern. You could bottom out end of April, early May at,
you know, hopefully a higher low than what we saw of April this year. I would hope for somewhere
between, you know, 16 to 2000, you know, that kind of range. So not incredibly that much lower.
And that's the thing I look at here. And obviously, you know, I think a lot of people at this point, I kind of have PTSD with all coins. I think the, you know, the taste in
your mouth right now is like, when I buy all coins, you know, the next time I'm going to keep,
you know, 70 to 80% of my, you know, stack Bitcoin rather than, you know, probably what a lot of
people had was like, I don't know, 80% all coins last time. And yeah, that's kind of always the
way, you know, it's kind of, you know, it's like, you just got to buy that macro fear sometimes. Now, a lot of all coins, just the,
the ones that will bleed against Bitcoin over the next four to six months, those are most likely
dead projects, the majority of them. Now, the ones that can outperform Bitcoin, such as Ethereum,
hopefully XRP, hopefully Solana, hopefully even Cardano, you know, pick your poison.
Those ones probably are going to do very well into the
end of this decade i mean ethereum is still showing strength against bitcoin that's why i
keep mentioning it so much and i mean i right now i'm one of those people who's more bearish who
thinks things are going to come down but i still own more ethereum than bitcoin right now just
because ethereum looks like a more attractive buy than bitcoin now i would I would swallow my words if ETH, you know,
bleeds against Bitcoin for the next four to six months. But I think that's unlikely because the
last time the Fed ended QT, you had an upward momentum for, you know, ETH versus Bitcoin,
you know, all the way from August of 2019 up until December of 21. So, you know, over two years there.
And if the same thing kind of plays out, you got a bullish trajectory all the way into 2028, maybe even into 2029 for Ethereum versus
Bitcoin. Now, again, the important thing to realize here is that if ETH falls off a cliff
against Bitcoin over the next four to six months, that's kind of nullified. But I don't think that
will happen. I think the technicals look very good. I think the fundamentals are kind of there
too as well. So, you know, that's kind of
the area I would think. And don't be, you know, don't be turned off if things come down for the
next four to six months, only be turned off if ETH bleeds against Bitcoin. Now, contrary to popular
belief, altcoins can do well against Bitcoin in a bear market, just like they did at the end of
2019, even through pandemic, even through tons of, you know, bad stuff happening.
ETH still outperforming Bitcoin.
I think this...
Evan, also February of 2018 to like late April of 2018, you had plenty of coins going to billions.
Ontology, Wanchain, even had some like insane recovery bounces from like aeon icx neo so i mean even like
uh that rally that we had when btc went from like 32k to 49k in q1 of 22 plenty of vaults
had insane opportunities step and literally went up 100x.
NFTs as well.
So even if there is like some drawdown,
there's always going to be a bull market somewhere in crypto.
Even the summer of 2022, Matic went up like 300%. ETH went up like 200%.
ETH went from like 800 bucks to 2300.
Some other like GameFi tokens as well did well during that time period.
Yeah, I mean, 100%.
That's I mean, the thing to realize, though, is like I'm more of like, I'm not a small cap guy by any means.
It's a different type of investing what I do.
That's a really good point, though, bro, because the thing that people should look at if you're
you know trying to buy bigger cap alts i guess if you're not really somebody who like follows the
newest alts or follows you know these more niche like type of things is look at like something like
others versus bitcoin and others is everything outside the top 10 market cap and then you know
it's still kind of bleeding against bitcoin but from from from that bottom that you saw in October of 2025, you're still kind of from
that crazy kind of scam week down with Binance and all that.
You're still kind of well above that area.
And the last time the Fed ended QT, that August 2019 area, you came down a little bit for
a month, but then you had a giant rally, you know, against Bitcoin, even through pandemic.
I mean, you had a little bit of a blip, you know, a blip, I guess you could say giant rally, you know, against Bitcoin, even through pandemic. I mean, you had a little
bit of a blip, you know, a blip, I guess you could say for pandemic, but you still came up. So
yeah, there's always like, I think the, the risk for alts gets much, much lower, um, mainly based
on monetary policy and mainly based on like when charts like others versus Bitcoin are starting to
come up. It's not up enough for me to like,
want to buy anything other than Ethereum personally. But if it continues upward over the next four to six months, that would make a lot of things much, much more attractive to me.
Like, I think if, if we go enter, you know, if things generally are bearish for the next four
to six months, and then nobody's going to want, nobody's going to care about any alts at that point. But
if you're still around and you buy some alts that have outperformed Bitcoin during that time,
I think that could be a generational, really big buying opportunity, especially if Bitcoin goes
down, you know, I'll talk about, you know, maybe it'll irritate people, but I don't care. I mean,
Bitcoin could go down to about 48K, 50K, maybe down to 40K. I don't think you'll lose 40K, but my base case is probably between 40 to 60K.
Now, you know, the last thing I want to say here is that I don't really mind being wrong
on that.
Let's say there is a super cycle.
Let's say Bitcoin goes to 200K by the end of next year.
I don't mind getting back in at like 115K or even 120K on the way back up because the
odds, you know, I'm just looking at the game of
probability here like the odds that we continue lower i think are much higher now however if
bitcoin's able to which i don't think it will but it's if it's able to break above you know 112
hold 112 115 those areas then i think the risk just gets much much much lower and the the percentage
of making new all-time high and going into an extended bull run gets much higher. So that's kind of like, I don't mind buying, I don't mind
getting back in at 115 K on the way up if, if that is what happens, but I don't think it'll
happen. I think we're going to, you know, generally see what we saw after the fed ended QT,
um, in 2019. And the last thing I'll say quickly is that, you know, I think the Democrats are
going to do all they can, you know, they, to kind of bring this down a little bit, you know, get the Democrats back in, you know, for the midterm election.
It would make a lot of sense.
So, yeah.
You know, it's crazy, man.
Over the last, like, 40 to 50 years, markets have actually done better under a democratic regime.
And I feel like it's something that people don't want to acknowledge.
I think Trump is the exception.
Trump's a Democrat, man.
Trump's a liberal.
In a way, yeah.
He's definitely not the same dude from 2016, 2017.
He is not, dude.
He's definitely not, man. It's kind of a shame, 2017. He is not, dude. He's definitely not, man.
It's kind of a shame, bro.
It really is, dude.
I mean, I think nail in the coffin is Elon Musk.
The real Republican that still exists is probably Elon Musk.
I mean, Trump doesn't want...
He has no interest in lowering spending, lowering nation's debt.
I mean, okay, I'll give it to you.
He's more conservative than Democrats that lost their damn minds, extreme wokeism, but nation's debt. I mean, okay, I'll give it to you. He's more conservative than the Democrats
that lost their damn minds, you know, extreme wokeism,
but he's not that conservative, in my opinion.
Yeah, one thing that I've been critical of
here on the show publicly over the last, like, month or so
is this extraction that the Trump family has done with the crypto market
through things like Trump and Melania Coin.
And also, dubious speculation, of course, but, you know, when you have big positions on Hyperliquid, like literally minutes before a truth social post, you kind of have to ask some questions, right?
You do have to ask some questions.
I would like the Trump family to just like not talk about crypto at all and just talk about the stock market, cut red tape, do the same thing that they did from 2017 to 2020.
Just talk about the broader market and that's it.
Because once you start talking about small markets like crypto, and again, for those listening that might forget,
Nvidia has a larger market cap than the entire crypto asset class,
just to kind of put things into perspective. Right.
And most of the holders, right. For BTC, they're like,
they're like entities from China, people that honestly hate America. Um,
and then not, not also not to mention like some of the other assets
right which a lot of it a lot of it is from people that truly don't don't want politics involved
in their wealth man like the whole thesis of this uh entire market was to be away from TradFi, right? You look at the ETH ICO, right?
It was pro, it was, it was, the whole term for Ethereum back then was like the world
supercomputer for decentralized programmable money, right?
And it was the thesis, it was the vending machine thesis, right?
Where you, where you put in like two bucks to get something from the vending machine thesis, right? Where you put in like two bucks to get something from the vending machine.
And that vending machine was the Ethereum protocol.
And, you know, it killed that double spend thing that a lot of other altcoins had at the time.
The colored coin stuff, like red coin and all that.
And, you know, that fell on its head, right?
That fell on its head right that fell on its head and it got taken over by
the defy mafia which honestly destroyed a lot of liquidity for some eath holders right rugs would
happen left and right remember iron finance many other rugs as well um plenty of eath probably got
destroyed um in 2022 with celsius ftx l, which was honestly a domino effect if you look
back on it. Luna really messed up a lot of the liquidity for years. But I think all this resolves
in the next two years, honestly. It is going to take some time. I think of it now as like an expedited version of the dot-com boom and bust uh where it took tech stocks
like 12 years to regain their all-time highs but rather than have like a drawdown a massive drawdown
for years it's just more of like this stagflationary period if you look at pairs like ethereum against
the s p ethereum against against the q's solana against the q's from their 2021
highs it's it's very apparent that like it is somewhat of a stagflationary environment
if you compare those highs right if you compare those highs where the q's traded in q4 21 the s
p and you compare that to uh some of these tickers right the high caps there's some clear like
there's some clear decay there uh but i think it's going to be fixed with this with this pro
growth regime um i'm going to bring up some people uh on fridays guys i do like to bring some people
up so if you're listening to the show want to talk some shop and all that stuff just hit that
request button and uh i'll uh i'll bring you right on up
so if you're listening to the show and you're enjoying what we've uh been yapping on about
for the last hour and a half you can uh hit that request button feel free to give some of your
thoughts ask any questions or any of that stuff um and if it's your first time tuning in feel
free to give us a follow my name is wabi i go live here throughout the week at 3.30 p.m. EST,
and we yap on all things markets, whether it's BTC, Alts,
TradFi, you name it.
We talk price action.
Feel free to give us a follow.
So I'm going to pass it on over to Vitamin E first.
I brought you up, man, because I see we have mutuals.
So what's up, man?
How are you?
It's been a long time um so basically i just have this kind of market theory i was running over with snorlax um i think they probably achieve asi towards the end of 2026
so if that ends up being true, then I think
what will happen is there will be like this weird catalyst
where QE is done
towards the end of the year
because people are getting laid off
exponentially through the layoffs from
AI. And then
UBI becomes a
it becomes
like a 2028 election
like a key election issue,
where that's going to be one of the main running issues in 2028.
And all the buying opportunities will happen in 2026
when there's that crash based on the farmer's almanac chart
that everybody knows.
So like, think SpaceX, Anthropic, those types of companies.
I don't think there's going to be that many opportunities in crypto.
And I think we're probably going to repeat kind of the roaring 20s
with echoes of Obama with, you know, like how in 2008 Obama got in,
market crashed.
It's going to be the same thing with Vance.
So I think that's kind of the setup.
It's wild because there's things like I just so highly disagree with
and then other things I agree with.
That's such an interesting take.
Wouldn't the Anthropics IPO next year mark like a top?
That's like an exit liquidity catalyst
yeah it is but i'm just listing like the types of companies like the quality companies that are
going to be done it's still going to happen during a down cycle so you're going to have everything's
just going to crash and you'll be able to buy it kind of like um what was it zoom listed and then
it only went down until it hit like 100,
and everybody was still, they bought it at the IPO.
They just were lost in 2021 or something.
I don't know.
But there was one IPO like that where it was just like,
anybody who bought it just lost their money immediately,
and it just kept going down.
It's going to be like that with probably Anthropic and other IPOs.
You don't think Anthropic would be like that with probably anthropic and other ipos and then you don't think you don't think anthropic would be like a hood where it goes down a bit and then it becomes like a major oh no
i think that's exactly what's going to happen i'm just saying like the ipo you never want to buy and
like you want to buy it eventually but you don't want to buy it right at the beginning beginning i feel you on that man yeah same thing happened um with coin i believe um i think palance
here was another one palance didn't do anything for a long time um i think what is it carvana
as well it went down like 99 or 99 90 plus percent and ended up being one of the biggest outperformers.
I'll pass it now to protocol326.
What's up, bro?
How are you?
What's up, man?
Yeah, I mean, for me, just my quick two cents, I think one of the main motivating factors throughout this cycle,
the time period remains the fact that everyone is better.
I don't know, I might be just the odd one person here, but even everyone is calling these crazy bearish thing that keeps me positive and optimistic that we will have potentially
another all-time sometime in 2026 for Bitcoin.
And I think just with this regulatory clarity coming into the crypto space, well, I think
that'll definitely do something.
You'll bring a whole bunch of new eyes into the space with the ETFs and the institutional
adoptions.
I don't know.
It just might be me.
Maybe it's somewhat of a delusion but I struggle to see us going again
anywhere below 60k Bitcoin, 70k even.
I don't see that happening.
Especially because everyone is expecting that we will hit those numbers.
And as far as altcoin goes, I don't think that we will not
have another altcoin season but I just think that it's going to be more selective it's going to be
specific alts that make a run rather than before where you could just throw in two cents into
anything and you would get 10 to the x from it I don't think all hope is lost. I think there's too many reasons to believe
that we could still
more in this cycle.
As if I can even call it
a cycle.
Yeah, I feel you on that, man.
I think there's a chance that we can hit all-time highs
over the next year.
And, man, you know,
I'll say this, man. um i think what's that bill
called josh the the the genius act or whatever that that already there's the genius the stable
the clarity act yeah yeah yeah the the genius one isn't that like the the the what was it like
something regard with the markets bro like market clarity or whatever isn't that like the what was it?
Something to regard with the markets,
bro. Like market clarity or whatever. Isn't that the same thing?
No, that's totally separate. The genius
act was for establishing the
National Innovation
Act or Stablecoin
Act. They changed the name a few different times, but
that's like the consumer protection rules and
framework for stablecoins specifically.
That already happened?
Yes.
The one we're waiting on, I think it's the Clarity Act.
Yeah, that one.
I think that's like, I think that's a catalyst, dude.
And I think that would lead ultimately to the BSR, the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, dude.
That's like the piece of the puzzle that has to
happen views um and maybe that happens next year brett or maybe that's like a mid-term
uh maybe i i'm honestly i'm not too bullish on the bitcoin i don't know if they're gonna push
it through that way um i don't know it's gonna be interesting how that actually plays out what
i would like to see is like the is the energy sector actually allow these space data centers like StarCloud, which if you guys want Alpha, that would be something I would try to pay attention to.
They're a private company.
They're invested into NVIDIA, but they're the ones that are going to be building the multi-kilometer-wide data centers that are farming just crazy it, energy for the AI sector.
Elon must just talk about it on the online podcast, but that thing's crazy.
But my point to that is I would like them to see the stupid carbon credit system that's
built out.
The way we should do the Bitcoin strategic reserve is by all these marathon companies
or whether it's like American Bitcoin or Crusoe used to do this before they pivoted to an
AI infrastructure company, was they should just allow us to tokenize the energy sector part of it, which
if you've watched Jensen, I think he talked about it on Joe Rogan's recent podcast too,
but the CEO of NVIDIA, he says the same thing that I referred to with Satoshi Nakamoto's
paper back in 2010, which is Bitcoin's value doesn't necessarily come from it being just
a store value or a hedge against a phyation or a unit of account. It comes from actually making what was something
thermodynamically perverse into a net value, which means something that is bad for the environment
that has a negative energy cost production will far exceed the value of it and the utility of it,
which is why it will continue to be produced. And so what you can actually do is access these
negative energy markets and convert that through carbon credit based systems. And so what you can actually do is access these negative energy markets
and convert that through carbon credit based systems. And those are like hundreds of millions,
if not billions of dollars in value. I would love to see that, but I haven't seen anything on
like advancements on how we're actually going to purchase the Bitcoin specifically,
whether it's through taxes, whether it's through compensated Bitcoin, and we're only not selling
that off. It's going to be interesting, and we're only not selling that off.
It's going to be interesting to see what Cynthia Lummis actually pulls
off, but either way, it'll happen
soon, and that's going to be for all digital assets.
Let's go, man.
Let's go. I think this is the place to be, bro.
For long-term gains, man.
Mario, what's
going on, bro?
What's up, bro?
What's up, man? What do we got for us today? Man, uh, chronos chronos should have been, bro. If when chrono, when I saw chronos pumping,
bro, and I'm like, if this thing dumps, this is probably the end, bro. It was very similar,
bro, to remember 2021. Also when chronos went crazy to a dollar.
When I saw this thing do like a 3-4X, man, I'm like, man, this is a sign that this shit could be the end of this cycle.
I'm still bullish, man.
I'm still thinking we're going to have a short bear market.
At least I'm guessing, you know.
I'm just a price point guy man i put my price
points and if they come they come if not i try to adapt but uh i saw joshua talking about uh
speaking about um uh carbon credits man and uh i think carbon credits and blockchain
technology i think they they they come together really good, man.
One of the things that I've been told, I've been looking at a few companies,
is that if you are going to invest in any company that deals with these carbon credits,
make sure they own the land.
You know, you don't want to get no third party or anything like that or in you want to get in the in the core where they own the land and they're the ones
producing the those carbon credits uh but yeah man you know all you all we got to do is uh
you know i'm not i don't guess the bottom like i said i have price points and i try to always dca
on the way out and on the way in uh so I don't normally always get the best prices on these stocks and crypto assets.
But I do have a question for you, Robbie, man.
Since you called, you know, I'm looking at Monad, man.
And I keep losing my sleep, man.
I don't know, man.
I really like Monad.
And I know you called the 2X, man, on the pre.
So I'm like, look for a 2X and not financial advice and get out.
And it literally did that.
It hit five cents and out.
And you were speaking about all these chains that come in, you know,
that spend a few years just getting all this money,
all this funding, and then they retrace.
What would be, and not financial advice on your side,
what would be that one price point where you would love to see Monad,
where you're like, okay, now it could rebound and do a 5 or that 10x,
like Sui.
What would be that price point man probably under a
penny i think that would be yeah under a penny for sure i think that's where that thing yeah
i think that's where it's headed probably under a penny because this is what people don't
understand right if you look at sui for example um when sui launched that was that was i can't really talk which i actually
have to wrap up to save my voice but um in may of 23 btc was at like 27k and sui had a depreciation
of like 70 plus percent over the next four months while bitcoin did nothing but range right uh if
you look at pump pump came out in july uh bitcoin was doing nothing but ranging from july all the
way through august it did nothing but in a range right with these marginal all-time highs. But Pump went down like 70 plus percent, right?
So if Bitcoin is going to do the same thing
and just range from like the 80Ks to 90Ks,
then Monad probably does the same thing, right?
And an 80% retracement, 75% retracement from 5 cents
would be like right under a penny.
I think that would be a great add, right?
But again, like Bitcoin can chop for a lot longer.
And if it actually does make, I guess it wouldn't be a lower low because it wouldn't break 74K.
But like say it breaks the local bottom that we hit at 80k like maybe even just
the deviation at 78 79 then monad would just get absolutely crippled um probably like at half a
penny a full 90 retracement something along those lines but between half a set and a set would be
like somewhere we had prospect like all right maybe there's a trade to be made here
similar to the Sui trade from that bottom in Q4 of 23.
Something like that.
That's how I would view it because they have a lot of money, right?
But I'm going to go ahead and can it here, guys.
My voice is just like destroyed.
Hey, Wabi, have a batido mame, man, and you'll get better.
Bro, I got some stuff I'm about to take right now bro uh but yo thanks for coming on man data josh evan max uh we had a
we had a pretty stacked paddle today bro it's just that it's friday and like not many people are
tuning into spaces or the holiday season it was like that last year um and it was like that the year before as well the year before
like during this time it does tend to be a quiet time in the content creation space but
going into next year man i think we're going to be in for some exciting time so i want to thank
all the speakers guys uh and for those of you that are listening that have tuned in over the
last two hours you guys have been enjoying the uh the discussion that we've had here in regards to all markets
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So that being said, I want to thank my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ,
for allowing me to talk with you guys about markets.
Without him,
none of this would be possible. And, you know, I show up to do these shows, whether engagement
is low, whether engagement is mid, whether engagement is high. Life is all about ebbs and
flows, right? You have your good seasons, you have your bad seasons, and you have your seasons where nothing really happens.
And I think if you're in this market, whether you're building a business, whether you're trying to build up your trading account, your investing account, you have to take a step back and realize that you're going to be going through seasons where you'll often question, damn, how am I not growing as much as I did last month
or the month before? Why is nothing happening? Why are my numbers going down? You just have to
realize that markets are like human emotions. They tend to be very volatile. But the most
important thing, just as a trading account, just as an investing account, at the end of the day,
your most important factor is that you go on a continuous path of higher lows.
It is all about your higher lows.
Higher lows and higher highs.
Yeah, higher lows and higher highs.
That's what it's all about, guys.
So stay focused out there.
But also don't forget to give yourself a break.
We're all human in the end.
I think
the space needs more humanity at the end of the day.
Guys, take care. God
bless you all. Have a safe weekend.
Feel free to tell a friend about
us here because Bitcoin.
This is Wabi signing out and I'll
see you all on Monday
at the same time. Take care guys. Bye.
