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Market Talk: 100k btc retest incoming?! Is a relief rally due?!
Recorded: March 21, 2025 Duration: 2:07:43Space Recording
Short Summary
The discussion highlights trends in the crypto market, including Bitcoin's growth, altcoin performance, and potential monetary policy changes. Fundraising efforts are noted with significant financial support for Solana Labs and KTA's valuation post-launch. The market shows signs of stagnation with BTC, ETH, and SOL, while altcoins experience growth. There is a trend of reduced market interest and a potential shift in liquidity from gold to Bitcoin.
Full Transcription
We're all the good men gone and we're of all the good men gone and we're gone
where's required her please is the fight and rising on
it's a light upon the fire
Ladies,
I'm gonna be a person I'm
I'm holding out to the end of the night
It's gotta be strong and it's gotta be fast and it's gotta be fresh from the fight
I'm gonna be a hero
And he's gotta be wrong
So I kill that he's like
where I'm
my wife
Some will just be your
Some are reaching back
Rest you're trying
When it's going to take
To a lot
To get to sweet
I'm going to be
I'm going to be in the line
It's going to be wrong
He's got to be
braced by
I'm going to be
He's got to be
I'm going to
and he's got
he's got to be wrong
I'm going to
the end of the night
and I'm going to
go and the
What's up?
Welcome back. Welcome back to another edition of Market Talk. Donnie, what is going on? Well, that wraps up another week, guys. The S&P, the Q's, and even the IWM ended the week in half a percent in the green. Stocks like Hood up well above 10 percent from the Monday Open.
Tesla even catching somewhat of a bid here, man.
Tim Waltz, shout out to Tim Walts,
creating that bottom on Tesla by bear posting on stage.
That dude is a clown.
He is a clown.
He is something else for a guy that's never really owned stocks.
But BTC, Ethan Sol,
I haven't really done much, honestly, for the entire week, but we do have some interesting
all-coin price action. Many all-coins up 2-X, near 2-X, or even a little above from their lows.
Specifically, I'm talking about Farkcoin on Solana, and an interesting ticker that came into my vision
was ZRO, layer zero. That's up, 2X off the low as well. And there have been many things on
chain that have performed quite well uh i'm honestly shocked on how like coinbase has been listing
all these base memes and they've just kind of been under the radar it's not really as hyped
as it was in q4 of last year or in early january it seems like the market right now and most of its
participants are still recovering
from all the Trump craze that occurred back a few days before the inauguration.
There are some rumors of a pump fun air drop.
I really don't know one that's going to drop, and I really don't think it's going to be that great.
As we saw with the Jupiter airdrop, many, many, many people, including myself,
we're excited about the prospect of...
that large airdrop constituting a on-chain stimulus to pump the market.
But we actually saw the complete opposite of that.
And it seems like the market is just trying to latch on to a narrative to take prices higher.
But price ultimately dictates the narrative.
And there have been all sorts of stuff that's coming on to try to make some headlines like a Pengu ETF.
I'm not even sure what the token from Pudgy Penguins is really supposed to be used for.
I know they're built on abstract, which is some weird layer two on ETH.
and speaking about layer twos i feel like all the l2s on eath have really just cannibalized
the ethereum price because you want people to actually be on eith mainnet right you want it
specifically to be on eith main net um because mainnet is where most of the action is that is where
most of the volume is that's where most of the fees take place
And really, all these L2s just cannibalize stable coin liquidity, and they mostly destroy market participants.
As we've seen in the past over the last two years, anytime there's some sort of L2 season, with the exception of base...
Most of these pumps aren't even sustainable.
They typically last about a couple of days, and then they just drop a Nagasaki Hiroshima-type
bomb on everyone that's holding.
Study arbitrage season in Q1 of 2023, going into that air drop.
Same thing with optimism.
You even have the sole ETF making rounds again.
I think there was a filing somewhere in Delaware.
I'm not sure if it's like actually legit or not,
but it seems like they really want this sole ETF narrative to really push through.
But again, you're seeing it within the price section of majors.
There's just not really an interest to send prices higher, and it's more so...
accumulation. And I do like that at the very least, we haven't actually made new lows on majors since last Tuesday.
And I do think that after this FOMC meeting that we had and also the B-OJ decision, I think the Wall of Wary is behind us.
And in fact, we actually do have things to look forward to, specifically when we talk about the prospect of a counter-trend rally.
Well, we saw this last year from March.
all the way to early August, we would have these vicious counter trend rallies from the mid-50s
or late 50s all the way back to 70K to the point where many of us, including myself,
thought that Bitcoin was going to hit an all-time high, especially when you had Trump lift
his fist up with the American flag after he almost got assassinated.
The BTC price just skyrocketed after that.
It is so wild how that rally occurred from early August after we hit 48K all the way to 100K, man.
That was a sample of what's to come, honestly, in the next couple of years as the Trump pump, honestly, guys, I know like...
We all say this is the first pro-crypto House and Senate, pro-Crypto administration.
We have a crypto-Cissar with David Sachs and all that stuff.
And David Sachs is one of the major contributors to giving Solana Labs runway to survive.
I think they only had six months left the runway when Seoul was at $8, and then David
Sacks gave them that huge bailout.
and bought a ton of OTC sold from them.
But where I'm getting at is, you know, all of these narratives and all this stuff, it's going to take a while to play out.
And it's actually better if we range, say, up until August.
Again, that's...
I know that sounds crazy right now because you do have quantitative tightening ending and all that stuff.
And Powell is probably going to cut rates at least one more time from here until August as the Fed is projected to cut at least two to three more times by the end of the year.
But I still think Trump wants to set up markets in a way where they can pump viciously in a midterm year, which historically...
they haven't really been that great going into them at least right going into them in 2022 the
s&p was down 25 percent off of its high going into the midterms same thing occurred in 2018
markets were down egregiously going into those uh going into those midterms despite
endices being at all-time highs
specifically the NASDAQ in August of 2018,
that trade war that escalated from then until the midterms was pretty vicious.
And if you see the parallels of what I'm trying to draw in,
history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
But that's sort of what we're seeing here play out, right?
Similar to 2018.
And the good thing about this is that
these drawdowns typically don't last as long as people think right and
honestly
I am just here to tell you guys to not give up hope.
Don't lose faith.
This is the part of the market where people honestly get bored and walk away.
And then they come back in two months and they miss a ton of on-chain runners.
And we saw this occur even from that range from March of last year all the way to August.
We saw Andy and Wolf melt face.
We saw Giga and Mumu and Retardio melt face.
We saw Billy melt face and a few other things as well, right?
So despite the potential of majors ranging, there are going to be opportunities.
And as a matter of fact, I think if you are so active in these markets, it could develop your edge.
when markets actually do pick up.
And I'll tell you from firsthand experience,
being active during that huge range last year
definitely helped me as a market participant
navigate on-chain when AI was going nuts, right?
So look, I'm here with Chill, Donnie, and Prometheus.
We're going to go ahead and bring you guys the weekly wrap up.
I want to thank each and every one of you that are tuning in live right now or listening to the recording.
Guys, this is Market Talk brought to you by because Bitcoin hosted by me, Wabi.
And for the next hour, we're going to go ahead and rant and banter about all things, crypto markets and prices and.
dubious speculation and all that stuff but before we officially get started guys if you guys can go
ahead and show some love and support to the space
the best way you can do that guys is by clicking the spaces tab and once you do that you'll see a
little link up on the nest up on the jumbotron right above our avatars right above our pfps there's a
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more ears and eyes to the show.
And of course, doesn't take that much effort.
So I understand, guys, it's a Friday.
We probably won't have as many people as we usually do up on these shows.
As on Fridays, people usually wind down.
It's more so Thursday, right?
By the time you get to Thursday, most of the volatility within these markets are
is already winded down but we do have indices closing the green today so perhaps we will have
some very interesting price action to the bull side during the weekend now that we have all of these
All the wall of worry events that we typically have in the month, right?
We smash CPI.
We beat expectations.
FOMC and the BOJ decisions went smoothly just as projected.
So for now, at the very least...
there is not much friction for the upside, right?
There's the potential for BTC to retest the yearly open.
And as far as ETH, I really won't touch upon ETH.
Honestly, my eyes bleed when I look at an ETH chart.
But that's what I'll say about that.
I just don't want to talk about Ethereum.
Just hearing the name makes me want to like
blow my eardrums out. But either way, man, Donnie, you know, you heard the song, right? You're an individual
that says that you like the songs that I play here on the show. I played, I need a hero from
Bonnie Tyler. So...
Donnie, man, I'm going to pass you that baton, man.
I hope you inject me with some more bullish opium, brother.
How are you?
Welcome back to the show.
We're now seeing less people on the timeline, less people on live streams.
And during this time period, that's when you actually start to see some accumulation.
As odd enough as it sounds, right?
I do believe there's actually...
some edge and being active on this platform and paying attention to the numbers when it comes to
activity and all that stuff but welcome welcome brother it's going to be a great show today
yeah bro funny you say that man like literally it hit me this morning when i woke up and i was just
checking you know all the channels that i usually talk in twitter checked a little bit of tictock
youtube and it's just so dead man it's crazy like it reminds me i made a post this morning of um
how it reminds me of June in 2021, the June, July-ish period, and then we picked up in August.
Obviously, you know, the context is completely different.
Like you had most of the liquidity cycle already play out, you know, while that correction happened.
And the stock market was still in an uptrend.
It was entirely different.
But like just from like a feeling and sentiment standpoint,
It's so identical because I was actively trading back then. I remember it and I was so caught up in crypto.
Like it was literally my life at the time. I remember it like it was yesterday and it just feels so similar man.
Like literally and the way that I'm viewing the market in the coming like one to two months, one to three months.
you know with some deviation to those dates it feels like we're going to start building an up
trend specifically in april as the economic data starts to come out you know i've been trying to
talk about how it's reminding me of the twenty twenty three october through to twenty
twenty four set up with the fed with the stock market correcting 10 percent with recession fears
and all this kind of stuff again slightly different but you know very similar setup and
And so the fact that people are walking away now and I'm seeing like Thicktokers and YouTube content creators just spamming out bare posts like, you know, and I don't actually like follow these people.
I was literally just like scanning through YouTube and searching up like crypto and alt coins and things like this.
Everyone's bearish.
Like it's crazy.
And so it just feels like.
Well, I can see it in the charts that, like, you know, we're in a very close proximity of the low, I feel like. And, you know, with a decent FOMC that we just had, you know, they kind of like left it open to flexibility over the months of May, June and July. We're waiting for a pivot from them for everything to re-spark back up, right? So...
I don't know, I feel like it's the wrong time to be walking away.
And more so, you know, if you're paying attention at this moment in time,
you could probably end up nailing the bottom on a lot of old coins, get them super cheap.
By the time, you know, optimism is renewed back into the market,
you're going to be well into profit as people pile up on top of your buys.
And that's kind of the setup that we have here, right?
Similar to that 2021 June old coin wipeout.
Obviously, the correction on BTC was a lot different, but like alt coins specifically, it feels the exact same.
Like, they're down like, you know, anywhere from the high caps being down 65, 70%, 70% to the low caps being down like 90, 95%.
And yeah, it's just, I'm seeing, I'm seeing April, I'm seeing the setup.
I'm seeing tariffs on the second come to, you know, a finalized date.
And, you know, we know that...
Some of the more real-time data on things like inflation are potentially going to be projecting lower numbers to the Fed's numbers as they use lagging indicators going into April, specifically like the end of April.
I've marked out every single important date.
to keep watch of for April because if those numbers start to come in the right direction,
I think the market's just going to start front running that, front running either one of those
FOMC meetings, May, June or July.
So yeah, the setup's good to form a low and build an uptrend over the next couple of months here.
So, yeah, just being patient and looking for opportunities, actually.
I know you guys hit a crazy play on base.
I think Prometheus found that one.
So, you know, there is opportunity in the market, and this is the time where you should be looking when everyone's like walking away.
So...
Yeah, not too much to add to like the context of things.
But in terms of technicals, the SMP right now, it's closed in a weird spot if you go on like a lower time frame.
you have like a mini local distribution setup to potentially send this back to like 5.5k.
However, if next week you close above 5,800, I feel like that low could actually be safe and
we're going to start putting in higher lows on the SMP.
But right now you're literally trading into supply with a little bit of a local distribution
there.
I'm not sure if that low is safe just yet.
We'll see next week.
And I'm also preparing for another shakeout or de-risking event going into the April 2nd tariffs.
So we'll see how next week shapes up.
But yeah, I think from April onwards, there can be a buildup in price action, you know, starting to form, well, confirm a low, essentially.
I think we can confirm a low in April.
Yes, same with the US tenure in DXY here.
You're getting relief.
And we want these two charts to be going down.
So DXY, I think it could come up to about 104.9-ish.
And the 10-year, it's actually got a little bit of a local distribution setup.
But again, this is like bond yields and the dollar index.
So it doesn't trade like...
exactly how you know an asset price chart would trade it's a little bit
different so you can't put too much stock into these patterns and stuff more so
you just have to keep an eye on levels and see which areas get taken out but yeah
the US tenure it could also bounce just a little bit going into April but I think
after like the first week or so of April
specifically chart-wise, but also context-wise, these should be continuing their trends to the downside.
And that's where I feel like the economic data ties in.
These charts start to continue the trends that we want in the right direction.
And then leading up into May, you can potentially confirm a low on BTC and actually build an uptrend going into May to potentially where...
the Fed might actually pivot, right?
It could be, it could be in May, it could be in June,
it could be in July.
They've left those three back-to-back dates,
you know, for that flexibility.
And you can see it in their tone, they are,
They have lifted open in the air that they will intervene, no matter if it's a slow intervention in terms of things are looking good and they don't mind lowering rates and things like that.
Or if things get worse because of the tariffs and stuff that they'll intervene and help ease the economy in that sense.
So, yeah, just waiting for this April month to play out.
And I think from there we'll have a clear direction of where things are going.
Go ahead, Joe.
Yeah, I was going to just piggyback on that because I agree.
You know, I think a lot of people might be getting caught up trying to, you know, kind of predict price action.
I know I have as well.
Just but instead of trying to...
Instead of trying to predict where prices will go, it's more so just preparing for different scenarios.
So, you know, I'm looking at the beginning of April, that April 2nd tariff date.
I'm looking at that to be a sell-off.
That's what I'm, that's my base case.
Of course, you know, markets could rally after that, but all depends on what Trump says and we know how unpredictable he can be.
I'm.
I'm thinking we'll kind of rally into that area and then de-risk.
But again, it's about being prepared for any scenario.
And for me, you know, I'm really up until now, I've expected, you know,
Q1 to be a lot different than it played out.
So what that tells me is my framework or my thoughts on the market need to be just fully reset.
And, you know, after that kind of reset during this downturn,
The way I'm looking at things now is
you know, except the fact that we, we probably will range for a little bit. But I think the interesting
thing is just pointing out or trying to see where that range can form, you know, will that range
form, you know, above 85K? And maybe we kind of like range in between 85 and that 90 to 92 region,
or do we reclaim that, that 92K level that could bring some confidence back? Maybe we don't see
new all-time highs, but
you know, there could be a situation where although we do range, we could have more confidence
in the market, which
from everything that we're hearing from the Fed,
everything that we're hearing from Trump.
Yes, he does want to bring markets down,
but at the same time, he only has so much that he can do
when it comes to tariffs and different things.
And we saw him kind of soften his stance a little bit on tariffs recently
with him calling for kind of these reciprocal tariffs now.
And then we also see the chair Powell, he kind of,
talking off or talking down the tariffs and to say that, no, you know, that's its own thing.
So it might not even factor into what they're what they're considering for inflation.
So all of this just tells me that this isn't going to be like, you know, a quick reversal.
This is going to take some time for the market to digest for everything to play out.
macro wise and for us, at least for me from an on-chain trading perspective, it's just a matter of,
does the market have confidence that we will go higher? If it does, that means more volume on chain.
If we still have to sort of weather the storm, then it's probably going to be more dead.
Like when we were sitting at, you know, below...
when we're sitting at below 80K,
on chain volume was pretty much non-existent, right?
But now that we've kind of broken above the 85K level on Bitcoin,
some confidence is brought back into the market.
So now it's a confidence game,
and that's what can,
help us to can help us to navigate on chain.
And that's everything.
That's what I'm thinking about and how I'm taking in all this information is,
what does all of this macro, et cetera, what does that tell me to do on chain?
Because the way I look at it, I saw a take on the timeline that was really...
really nice. Basically, it says that anything that was pushed by the U.S. government,
crypto-wise, that would be kind of the crypto mag seven. So, you know, let's say, you know,
we do have this kind of reserve and there's a basket of crypto assets in there. Those are the
assets that are kind of pushed by the American government that will kind of lend itself to
those assets outperforming, right? And everything else will just be battled out on chain.
And so that's the way I'm approaching markets on chain is the place to be. So anything we hear happening macro wise for those of us looking to make the most out of this market, outside of just kind of investing in the top, you know, 20, 10 tokens or what have you, you know, for those of us trading on chain, it's all about.
Is there confidence in the market that prices will climb higher?
If there is, that means that translates to opportunity on chain.
And so looking at this kind of ranging scenario that we have with Bitcoin,
it's a matter of, do we reclaim this 85K level and bring confidence back into the market,
maybe even test the 90 to 92K region?
Or...
you know, do we have to visit, revisit the lows? I don't see a, I do think that, you know,
there's a probability, a decent probability, probably like 30 to 50 percent that we revisit,
you know, below 80K again. You know, I'm not saying that's going to be right now, but it all
depends on how these, how things play out with the tariffs and Trump are.
early April. I can definitely see a selling off derisking, as Donnie mentioned. But it's just a matter
of where do we see confidence coming back. And that's what we should be positioned for. We should
be a position ahead of that confidence. But at the same time, you know, it's a very kind of tricky
situation. So that's the key to showing up every day, not necessarily, you know, spending 16 hours
a day just staring at charts, but, you know, logging at, logging, at,
logging in every day, checking in with the market, making sure we know what's playing out,
what could play out, and being prepared for all of these scenarios.
Phil, you remember how dead the market was during that range sometimes from like April
all the way to like July?
God, don't mind me.
You remember that going?
That was, and the narrative was like waiting for the ETH, ETH, man.
And, like, we were excited that, man, when the ETH or ETH goes live, it's going to be insane.
And, like, what ended up happening was Solana was the benefactor of that narrative.
That was, like, one of the only things that were going crazy.
But, yeah, man, like...
As Donnie was saying also, like, social media channels that cover crypto.
Usually when you see a lot of activity die off, right?
Like, we're a media company, man.
And whenever you see a big drop-off in audience, that's typically an indicator that, like,
A lot of people got wiped and it's going to take some time for them to come back.
Even on market check, I think there was like less than 200 people that were watching.
And usually like our spaces and our YouTube numbers are more or less the same or they have been the same over the last few months.
And lately the YouTube numbers have dropped down and YouTube is more of a signal rather than spaces.
I feel like.
Spaces are more so for people that are on chain and YouTube is like how the normie is doing, right?
Like when Pepe started going crazy in Q1 of last year, our YouTube went straight to 10K.
We went from like 3K subs to 10K, almost like within the quarter, honestly.
And we went from like 80 live listeners to like 300 within a quarter or so.
And I think Cowan also talks about this as well.
And ultimately, I could see the indices making one more lower low.
But I think, like, that next low is going to be a pretty damn good base going into the summertime.
And we like to always talk about the summer slowdown of sorts.
But I have more often than not seen Tradfai boom during a summer rather than not.
We saw that in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 21.
Even in 22, the S&P was within like 10, well, actually not.
It was within like 15% of an all-time high.
It reclaimed quote-unquote bull market territory.
23, booming.
In video is going crazy.
Don't even get me started.
Remember what it was like in 2024 guys during the summer?
Oh, gold is at all time highs.
The indices are at all time highs.
And video is melting up.
Why isn't crypto falling through?
And so I kind of just think it's probably going to be the same thing, man.
It's going to be the same thing.
So, Matt, I see you're off mute, brother.
What's going on, bro?
Hey, can you hear me?
Yeah.
Loud and clear, what's going on?
Yeah, I think that we're probably just halfway through this consolidation.
If we look at 2022 and 2023's big mid-year range, they both lasted for 200-plus days.
And as we speak right here right now, you could say we're 100 plus,
if you want to get really exact, maybe 120-plus days into this.
uh sideways action from from late fall last year and um yeah i think just chill and be patient um i'm
still very confident that the the low is in i don't see us um i don't see us threatening to lose
our 76k 77k 50 weekly 50 weekly moving average it seems like that was uh
a nice bounce. Bulls definitely stepped in with size and yeah. So until we lose that level,
it's still a bull market. It's just asking ourselves how long the consolidation lasts.
Tradfai is already looking two weeks ahead at the next unemployment and labor market report.
in early April.
I know Trump's going to have all the headlines April 2nd,
but I want to say the next labor market report,
and I can look that up.
When is the next Louis labor report?
It's on the fourth or something.
Fourth, yeah.
Yeah, thank you, Donnie.
That's seriously going to move markets.
So I mean, you know, Trump can announce, oh yes, I'm considering 20% tariffs on Europe,
30% tariffs on South Africa, South America too, and, you know, in Switzerland because
I hate their watches.
obviously all numbers are up for negotiation.
He can say whatever he wants,
but if that labor market report comes in strong later in the week,
markets will absolutely react off it.
And then vice versa,
if it comes in super weak and like,
oh, wow,
companies are laid off workers because they're really worried about tariffs
or the hiring freezes are starting to finally take effect.
Markets will react to the downside for that too.
But honestly,
that's what I'm seriously paying attention to.
We've played the Trump game.
week after week, month after month, it seems like all the numbers are squishy.
They're all up for negotiation and no deadline is set in stone.
Anything can be postponed.
So to me, what's not going, what's not squishy, what is going to get reported and what
will be reacted off of is that labor market report less than two weeks from now.
But to me,
Data is already coming in pretty strong for it. We have seen no spike in initial jobless claims for
week after week since the last labor market report. No spike in continuing claims.
So, you know, unless we see something in tea leaves leading up to the next unemployment report,
I don't think there's really any surprises there. So,
Yeah, long story short, I remain bullish.
I think this is just the back half of consolidation, same as 2024, same as 2023.
And unless you truly think the bull market is over, I don't see why you're not trying to buy low or seriously average down.
Yeah, I agree with that. And like this, this Fed meeting, right?
They made it pretty clear that monetary policy right now is flexible and they're essentially like in some sort of reactive mode, right?
If things are looking bad, they're going to react.
If things are looking good, they're going to react positively.
So, you know, they're just sitting and waiting just like how we're waiting.
But we know that like some of this data is going to come out potentially good, specifically inflation, right?
So I feel like there's this pocket, there's this window.
where they have the opportunity to, you know, cut and potentially even
it's tricky because they've said they're not going to do QE and stuff,
but we know that they are more likely than not going to have to expand their balance sheet
to accommodate for that US debt maturity, right?
So, you know, if things are headed super well in April,
this is why I'm saying like we could incrementally build an uptrend in April
because there's so much important economic data coming out for the entire month.
Plus you get the tariffs out of the way on April 2nd.
You know, caveat to that is that Trump doesn't, you know, flip flop over and over after that date, right?
He sits that in stone.
It's done.
The uncertainty is clear.
And then you get the economic data hitting in the right direction.
That's the low confirmed for me, right?
And breaking key levels on the Bitcoin chart, specifically, you know, 99.5.
You break that.
The low is 100% out of the way.
So, yeah, just we're literally waiting, just like how the Fed has made it very clear that they're waiting to react.
Yeah.
So it's literally up to like Trump and the administration and this, um, this economic data coming out.
Big Chats. What's going on, brother? Welcome.
Yo, what's up everybody? Great. Wow. Like smart room. Like really smart people.
Um, yeah, a lot of like a commentary. I mean, I don't have too much to add, right? You come in after the comic who said, who had like a great set.
But, um, I will say, yeah, totally agree. Like, a little bit quiet out there. Like I did a YouTube today and it was like half the normal audience. So, yeah.
It does kind of make sense. A lot of people who chase a lot of the higher beta stuff,
they're looking for some of these meme coins. It kind of went to zero.
And maybe they're not able to hang around and hopefully they can come back and try it again.
But let me see. Really good commentary on like Bitcoin versus the weekly 50.
I think that's really important. And discussions of is low in or not.
I mean, that's definitely unclear to me at least.
Um, the weekly friend is still pretty clean in Bitcoin, but I definitely see damage done from the daily range breakdown.
So I'm actually a little bit more. I think it's probably a lot more likely we go to like 72K than, um, I think two or three people ago who said like 30% we go below 80.
I think it's like 70% we go to like 72K. I think it's a really good chance.
A really good chance we get there.
And so I'm kind of looking for that reaction.
I'd like to see maybe like a sharp drop.
For me, ideally, if I was painting a picture, like a sharp drop to that level.
Because I don't want to mess around with that range.
If you're unable to hold there and you drop into that prior range,
kind of opens up a whole range of possibilities.
We know what happened with Bitcoin.
in late 2021 when we lost the weekly 50 and it's kind of like that roll over we've seen on salana
right recently lost its weekly 50 that's kind of what we're hoping won't happen here with bitcoin
clearly a lot of uncertainty i don't know anything about fundamentals i'm pretty dumb like that
but um yeah i think markets want certainty we'll see we'll see how that plays out i just would um
if you allow me i love to plug the fact i just wrote a new book
If anybody wants a trading journal, I just publish it called the Trading Journal.
It's on Amazon, and I'm pretty pumped about that.
So I guess that's what I got for you.
Yeah, Ches, you're one of the few large accounts, man, that has a pretty clean track record.
I'm not even sure if you ever share an all coin below a billion or you usually just stick to majors.
I've never seen you like charter low cap.
Here's my problem.
I miss a lot of that stuff because the newer charts aren't interesting to me.
Like, I need some serious price history.
I want to give myself a good level to define my risk.
Yeah.
Like, I tend to just play the more mainstream all coins.
I've got a good record, but I have a lot of bad calls like anybody else, you know.
But I've never done like ICOs.
I've never done like super meme coins.
But if it's got a chart history, it's on major exchanges, I love it.
If it's an uptrend, I love it.
If it's a downtrend, it just bounced, I love it because I can short it.
Like, I like a good trend, and that's just, you know, that's what I'm looking for.
I don't know anything about the fundamentals.
It's all above my head.
Well, speaking of a large market cap with...
hundreds if not thousands of years of charting history cheds what do you what are you thinking of gold
here everyone is just talking about gold should i buy gold look at this chart of gold personally i
i see major and i mean major resistance up at 3200 3300 i think you could have a multi-month
correction. It hit the glass ceiling there, but what do you think?
Good to talk to you, Matt. I hope you're doing well, buddy.
So you think there's like, so like what I like about gold is you can go like monthly or whatever.
You know, it's something you can go for like a real long-term look.
So unlike some stuff.
Yeah. Well, I mean, I think it's hard to call top here in the monthly on any, I think really any time frame.
And you may have a better sense of it than I do, but I wouldn't.
I see this type of momentum.
And you're talking about monthly, it's almost at the top of the candle, right?
Like riding the upper balinger band.
I feel like that's a hard call from a momentum standpoint.
I don't see any weakness on a time frame driving under the daily.
I don't really see any weakness.
If you lose maybe like 2,900, 2950, that would be some initial weakness.
But for me, there's so little initial weakness.
I wouldn't want to get in front of the train.
Oh, I meant, yeah, I'm sorry, I'm not sure if it cut off.
I said 3,200, 3,300.
Yeah, yeah, is that just based off like a measured move or a fib level or what?
Both, yeah, both.
If you take the fib, if you take the fib from the 2021 all-time high down to its bare market low,
and if you take the fib from its, I want to say, 2012 off-
All time high down to its bare market low.
So literally the five-year fib and the 15-year fib both point at 3,300.
And there's just way too many algos that'll be like sweet, locking in profits, sell it all, come back in the year.
Yeah.
I think here's a couple things in that.
I think when you're in like blue sky breakout and you don't have like resistance levels, like a fib level, you know, measured move is kind of the best you've got.
And I think any thesis is fine as long as you're not going to defend it to zero.
So if you wanted to look for a short, as long as you don't hold it, you know, if your idea goes bad.
I think that's fine generally.
I just think it's, you don't have much to work with yet.
And I think you're making the best of what you have is kind of how I would look at it.
Cool.
But, yeah, great commentary, everybody.
Thank you so much.
Plus, like, what's driving gold at the moment is literally, you know, you've had recession calls,
you know, it's being driven by uncertainty in the market and things like that.
Plus, like, there is this, what I'm watching for,
for like a potential catalyst for a top is we still haven't had the Fort Knox audit, right?
I think that'll be like the climax of, you know, media attention for goals,
specifically because it's in an uptrend as well.
And then you do have all of these like multi-year levels that Matt just said,
like the 2.618 at 3.3K.
And then the local range, 2.618 around 3.2, you know,
you know plus we're looking for certainty to come back into the market potentially over the next
you know one to three months and if that certainty for risk comes back then people are going to
rotate out of gold so you've got a lot of confidence to look for a top on gold over the next
like three months i would say there's also that those are really good points johnny
There's also that widely known ARB trade between London Spot Gold Price and New York Spot Gold Price, and that Arb is eventually going to sort itself out.
That taking Spot Gold from London and getting it over to New York just to sell it.
across the ocean that doesn't last forever and so that would be you know that's just one
more thing that okay it was sweet while it lasted but another uh potential bear catalyst
weird i'd never heard of that yeah i was making all the tradfifin twit but as soon as it's on
cnbc and you know financial times you know the best move is over
Yeah, it's also interesting, like, I think China declared they'd been buying,
that started buying gold their central banks since November, right, during the elections,
when Trump won the election. Every single month, they've been buying like billions worth of gold
up until now. And typically, if you actually check
like their central bank
balance sheet when they allocate to gold
it's literally like preemptive to when they're
expecting a monetary expansion
either like locally in China or globally
and we do have the confluence of
you know them being in you know
well actually the whole world being in some sort of like
need to you know go into monetary easing
so that's also giving confluence that like you know
potentially gold is going to top here and you know we're going to enter this global liquidity
sort of expansion coming over the next like a few months or so
If you see, like, what I was trying to say there is, if you see this top locally forming on gold as like BTC is starting to build an up trend, I think that's going to add a lot of confluence to, you know, our bags going up, essentially.
We saw in November, if you actually check the dates of when gold corrected, literally Friday, November the first going into the elections.
Yep.
And then it went like 8% down, you had like a massive injection into BTC.
So I'm looking for that as like another rotation of liquidity to come into BTC over potentially May and June.
And gold moves first, period.
I mean, it has earned that status as the safe haven asset.
So people pile into gold first and it moves first.
You can look at its chart back in 2007, 2008.
It bottomed out and was already threatening to make a new all-time high before any of the major indices.
Same thing in 2020.
Gold bottomed out.
And.
and was punching higher before any of the stock exchange and bitcoin got off the mat in 2020 and
then again like you just said again in 2022 donnie the same thing plays out and it makes so much sense
when people are panicked and want to go to something safe they pile into gold so it moves
first and then people start to move farther out the risk curve so um i i view this as nothing but bullish that gold
has been on this roaring parabolic uptrend for what six months one year plus straight that's good news
I don't want to see gold crashing. That's bad.
Yeah. And in the last year, it's been front running like global M2 as well.
So again, it's adding to the confluence of it being like an inflationary hedge,
kind of like a preemptive trade before inflation, but also a hedge against uncertainty,
hence like the crazy run recently.
But if that's that this is what I'm saying.
If like gold starts to give you a topping structure in the next like two to three months,
I just feel like we're about to have like a massive run-up on BTC,
you know, with the context of the global monetary expansion and the Fed pivot and all that stuff.
Hey, guys, I want to pass it over to Prometheus.
He mentioned this over on market check about two weeks ago, man, talking about money supply
and all that stuff and how the real move is probably going to come once the U.S. money
supply starts trickling up as it's been flat since December.
I know Donnie mentioned that pretty much the week of when there was no more movement in that
regard.
But Prometheus, what's going on, brother?
If you want to expand upon that and kind of touch on...
the subject and what we're yapping on about, bro.
Great to have you on.
Yeah, no, bro, I appreciate it.
I mean, we're talking gold.
I don't know.
I don't know really much about gold.
That's for sure.
But essentially my thesis, what I talked about with the United States money supply,
is the importance of a...
expanding U.S. monetary supply and that it actually being the primary driver of the markets,
if the U.S. monetary supply remains flat or shrinks and you see...
and you see China and Europe and Japan expand their monetary supplies leading to overall global expansion.
I don't think that global M2 then necessarily has as much weight to it per se without U.S. expanding alongside the rest of the countries.
But that's usually the United States is...
the lagger in that bunch, right?
It's from what we see, you know,
a lot of other countries are usually first to cut rates and hike rates,
in expectation or in accordance with how the U.S. might behave moving forward,
right?
So there is potential, you know,
signs that the United States,
not even signs the united states money supply hasn't expanded really since december um but at the same
time we are seeing obviously uh an ease based off of the last fomc in regards to um the balance sheet
and uh and monetary conditions and this is what we like to see right and and i really find
it fascinating the topic that we were talking on earlier in regards to uh
retail attention deficit disorder, right?
The ADD this market has.
It's really fascinating.
We were on YouTube earlier today,
and even in the Discord calls and now on CT,
you see when you start to see a crunch in volatility
and particularly ones that are
after significant sell-offs, that has usually marked the lows, right?
That is usually indicative of, you know, the liquidity, you know, a lack of selling pressure
and an overall lack of...
lack of positioning in in the market right and i love i love moments like this because this to me
is really really reminiscent of september the september lows last year it's also reminiscent of
september and october of 23 it's reminiscent of march of 24 and times like this man is just like
This is just in my wheelhouse, and this is when I start to get hungry, right?
When a lot of people start to leave the markets or just not pay attention is when you get those really, really solid buys in on projects that could potentially do very, very well if we do get another leg up.
And we're starting to see a lot of...
downside pressure come off of tradfi.
And I talked about this in the Discord, but the JP Morgan Collar Trade, right, which it'd been talked about 12 months ago.
A lot of people don't talk about it anymore, but the JP Morgan Collar Trade has the market is never once closed below that price on whatever their strike prices.
except for once and that one time was COVID, right?
So I knew for a fact, right, that, well, first of all, they put on 40,000 contracts,
which is a huge, notional size.
And their strike price was between 5,500 and 5550, between 5,500 and 5565 on the SPX.
And that creates a tremendous amount of buying pressure if we get below that because what you start to see is you start to see them unwind that position.
But also it creates a tremendous amount of selling pressure when we're above it.
And what did we see going into options expiration today and to the end of this month is we're going to be pinned in between 5,700.
and 55, 65, 5,500.
I truly would be shocked if we close below that number or above 5,700, because the market
makers have to essentially hedge that gamma or that change in delta in the markets.
And so I just...
I just don't see a world in which we're not bottomed right here, guys.
Even if it is just into a complacency shoulder, even if it is just into some form of,
you know, weak rally and, and, and, you know, people called an exit pump, whatever it may be,
I still, like you, the trade now, you know, the bears had their downside.
The bears had their opportunity.
and they took it and we went lower.
And now your risk is not being positioned to the upside.
Just from simply a market positioning standpoint, right?
I am very much in the same spot that a lot of the analysts have talked about so far,
but like you minimum in my eyes get to move to like 90K.
You backfill some of that liquid move that we had.
down to these levels and the markets are they're looking pretty good i like what we saw
over the past few days i took off some of my short put position positioning um just in case we had
a little bit of fuckery going into the the expiration but i like what we're seeing i love what we're
seeing and i believe that at the beginning of the year the
market was mispositioned and overpositioned to the upside with no uh you know and and pricing in
essentially perfect growth, right? And, and now what we're seeing is the option, or not the
options, the market overpricing downside, downside price action and upside volatility.
So I'm, dude, I'm locked in right now. I think right now is your opportunity to get filled
on some, get filled in some positions that are,
you know, that could do very, very, very well leading into end of April to potentially even beginning of June.
I'm super, super excited for the market right now. I'm relieved that we are now here at March 21st on this Friday because I know what now proceeds, or I know where now the market, where I believe it's going to be headed.
And a lot of that downside pressure just came off today.
Pumped, man. Pumped, pumped, pumped, pumped.
I've been looking at a lot of plays.
I talked about base on some spaces the previous, I think, like two or three spaces ago.
But I love base, man.
I think base is going to do fantastic and a lot of the names on it.
But I'll kick it back over to you, man.
Yeah, man, props to you, brother.
You found Kita, tickers KTA at 5 mil.
It pumped all the way to like 80.
Man, in this market, it's difficult to catch a move like that.
Dude, and those hot names, if we start to rally in majors, those names that are hot off the press, you know, that are fresh on people's minds have...
a lot stronger
tendency or higher
tendency to do very, very well
if majors perform. And I've talked
about it on spaces, but at that KTA
team executes, man, I mean,
they are going to make everything
looks so archaic
from a tech standpoint. It's not even funny.
so is this like caspar in 2023 yeah exactly literally because i literally bro okay k the the
the good thing about k t is that it's a fair launch it's a it was a fair launch and they had a vc round
after the launch where the vc's got in at like 65 mil um or 75 mil i forgot the exact number
So I think they had to like it was crazy 75 mil we're trading lower than where the where the seed investors got their valuation at. So it's like it's a literal no brainer. You think they're going to you think the VCs the first of all the unlocks for the VCs don't even happen for six months. And then I think they're 36 month linear monthly distributions. But I mean.
I mean, if you really think that these VCs are going to sell their bags at like a 10% gain, you are wrong.
You are wrong, sir.
Yeah, I think it's a top 100 token.
And just like you said, it is, I think it's casp all over again.
And a lot of people are like, why did they release a token before, you know, they even released TestNet?
because they realize the importance of a community
and especially one, building one so that they can have people
you know, come on chain and actually and build using their tech. That's the most important thing,
right? And to incentivize people to be a part of it because, you know, names like Manad, like Bear
Chain releasing at this ridiculous valuation is you don't incentivize anybody to be a part of it.
Nobody wants to be a part of that.
Nobody wants to be a part of, you know, sure, you might have test net already live and you might have, and you might have the tech already out for people to build on.
But if there's no incentivization for people to even be there, then the project's going to go nowhere.
That's what we've seen from these VC shitters the past 12 months.
And that's what I loved about KTA, man.
You know, there's no, like, crazy valuation from the get-go.
They're trying to build communities so that people actually build.
And so that actually does something and goes somewhere, man.
But I think it's top 100.
I'm going to stop chilling.
I'm sorry.
No, you're good, man.
This is...
This is a trader space, man, right?
And if you're a trader, then you have to trade what's hot.
Like, I feel like a lot of market participants this cycle are probably the most complacent that the industry has ever seen.
And that's why, you know, you have a lot of depression in the space, right?
Because BTC still looks bullish.
But most alts have kind of just been a flavor in the pen.
right? You remember
Billy? Billy went to like half a bill
last summer and a lot of people thought this is the next with
this is the next like
Shib or whatever. Same thing with Nero.
Remember Nero? They went to like a bill
and it just like died off.
And so I think
many have just been complacent because they look at the previous two cycles
and look at that as a barometer for their risk
I think like if we just analyze things for what they are and it's like, hey, if this thing is hot for the season, if I get any whiff of trend, then I'm going to go ahead and play it because this cycle has been somewhat of a wasteland, right?
If you tried playing the same narratives as Q1 of last year for Q4 of last year, you got hosed.
You got absolutely rinsed, man.
Absolutely rinsed.
um same thing if you tried pulling the same narratives of q4 of 23 in q4 of last year you got absolutely
rinsed like you always always always always always have to be active even during these times so you
can see like what trends are trying to form while the market is kind of it's kind of dead right and we
saw that what with the with some of the culture stuff that trended in the summer right that filtered on over uh
To SPX, right?
6,900 in the Maraud list, right?
We saw Gigga going crazy in the summer.
We saw Rotardio going crazy over the summer, right?
A lot of these...
culture, culture tokens, and that filter on over to the Marad culture list, right?
We saw Goat going crazy when BTC actually started making higher highs off of that October
monthly open.
And...
We started making higher highs on the weekly, right?
And that's when Goat came out.
And that laid the foundation for AI.
So perhaps this KTA thing is like the start of RWA is going nuts.
And I've got some elixir for exposure to that stuff.
um but rwas is kind of like a sector where there's really not much names to bid uh o m looks exhausted
ondo topped out against the broader market and q1 of last year i really don't know what the
narrative is about that token to be honest i find it kind of whack to be frank it's kind of like it's kind
of like still talking about chain link even though chain link topped out almost half a decade ago
And it's been in a bare market against major since that time.
But, uh, chill, Donnie, Matt, Cheds, if there's anything else that you want to check out.
You should check out the chart, Cheds, for Link, BTC.
It topped out on August of 2020.
It's kind of, it's kind of nasty.
Like, even when you look at the USDA, when you look at the USDA chart, that entire runup from like 15 to 15 to 50 bucks just looks like one huge deviation.
And like...
people fail to recognize that with a lot of these all coins
You always need to fight overhead supply.
And when a chart gets rinsed, like minus 80%, there are very few alcoins that actually make it out of those depths.
Because there's always supply, either from the team or from holders that are trying to get out, right?
Let me just take a look at Neo.
Neo last cycle.
This is the 2017 token.
Neo in 2017, early 2018, hit an all-time high of like $200.
And it failed to actually go into price discovery at like 1e-195.
Chinese Ethereum, right?
Yeah.
Yes, yes.
And I'm viewing meme coins kind of in that same way.
Yeah.
Yeah, I kind of think meme coins are kind of like Neo at this point, because I truly believe that Trump coin set a pretty big cycle top.
I really, really, really do think so for memes specifically.
I do think some memes will probably make an all-time high, but that same kind of bonanza...
I have a very, very, very, very rough time seeing that.
I mean, just look at SNL, Elon and Doge in the last cycle.
And look at even Ethereum.
If you remember Cheds in like June 2017, everyone in their mother was like, oh, Ethereum is going to be the world supercomputer, right?
And that was the generational top of ETHBTC, generational top of ETHBTC.
And so with Alts, it's just, it's just a different game.
And it takes people a couple of years to realize it.
Do you think we just need Justin's son to jump over there and run the Ethereum Foundation, Wavi?
I think Justin, I think Justin's son is, is, um, the hero that people don't,
want but it's the hero that they need a lot of the a lot of the flows that generate in defy uh because if
there's no flows in defy there's no yield right a lot of that yield comes from justin's son right like he is
the the his excellency and we have to the title
Yeah, yeah, and we don't have Doquan, right?
We don't have Doquan.
We don't have Alameda.
We don't have Genesis.
We don't have Grayscale with an infinite loop of leverage because of easy monetary policy.
And I feel like I've regurgitated this so many times, but I still feel like people are very, very complacent on that.
And they're just like waiting for this mystical alt season.
Yes.
come through like the market doesn't owe you anything it doesn't owe me anything it doesn't
owe sotoshi nakamoto anything we just have to play price for what it is because price at the end
of the day is the ultimate arbiter of truth and everything is a siop and i feel like trump is a siop i think it's a
And there will be like another huge, huge, huge spark in this market.
But I just feel like...
were still recuperating from all this madness.
Like, it's just really, really hard for me, Truss.
For me to see Trump and his team releasing multiple me.
I didn't like that.
Yeah.
Seeing Elon changes profile to Pepe or Kekeyes Maximus.
It wasn't Wabi, if I could interject here.
It wasn't actually his team...
releasing jump coin, it was when they pulled out 500 billion, excuse me, 500 million of liquidity
of profit.
It was the withdrawal.
Oh, yeah.
He extracted from the chart.
Like, they extracted from the chart.
And, like, you see it in real time.
Like, dude, he's an old man.
He's like, oh, I don't know what the hell to do with it.
Like, buy itself, apparently.
If you think, don't you think if they had just announced their reserve and pumped those from the beginning, we could have had a good alt season, you know, money into majors and stuff, you know?
Yeah.
Yeah. I think it should have been focused on Bitcoin. It should have been focused on Bitcoin, not like a bunch of weird alts. And I remember how terrible. I was getting some horrible messages. Like they were saying, Wabi, what are you talking about? The Trump is buying ENA. He's buying Arkham. And I'm like, dude, it's.
It's buying valuations on all coins that are trading in the billions.
Like, he's not early, and he's going to drain you.
It's a sci-op.
Buying Eth at 3,800...
With donor money at that is not indicative of a smart businessman.
It's just not.
And when you feel that you have to hang on to a narrative and borrow conviction,
the market quickly humbles that narrative, very, very quickly.
Isn't it, isn't it crazy?
But...
Look, if I heard all this talk and I didn't know the price, I think we were at like 45K Bitcoin or something.
You know, like markets still look good.
We're on the cusp of like a deeper consolidation, you know, weekly for, you know, crypto and legacy.
But still like...
We're still up big, right?
Bitcoin looks good.
Yeah.
But, yeah.
Oh, but like, all the charts.
Yeah, I've been trying to track.
I've been trying to check some of the tickers and the charts that you guys are talking about.
Yeah.
There's only like a few decent alt coins right now.
Maybe 10 or so.
But it's, you know, but the good times are coming.
I've heard of fat.
Which one?
It's called fat.
not for me f at f at yeah oh bro that's right that's right up my alley yeah thank you thank you i'm gonna go all in
three x leverage i'm all in oh geez bro geez man um i feel like i feel like that that stuff started
with george droid like the most like the most like edgy type meme and then it's just like a euthanasia roller coaster
But yeah, I think Trump should have started with the BTC reserve, honestly.
I think when, like, you have countries focused on Bitcoin, right?
And you put a global emphasis on Bitcoin.
What's that meme, right?
Like, Bitcoiners, I hate the term Bitcoin.
I find it so nerdy.
It's like Revenge of the Nerds kind of thing.
And I've met some of these people in person and, like, they're nothing how they are, like, online.
They kind of...
They're kind of really timid, right?
Very timid in person.
But either way.
That's just because you lift weights all day, bro.
Yeah, I don't know, man.
But I met a few of these people that are really loud online in Bitcoin, Miami,
2023.
And it was the most disheartening thing ever.
It's sort of like, like, damn, bro, like, you scream at people on spaces and then, like,
I see you in person.
And it's like...
It's like, I don't know, bro.
Like, seeing people in person, honestly, has really turned me off from going to conferences, probably ever again, really.
You mean, you've been to too many of those eat Denver's.
Ooh.
No, no, I went to BTC Miami in 2020.
I hear you.
It was quite disill.
It was, it was, it was really disappointing, really disappointing.
Like, I remember talking to one guy.
I won't mention his name.
And I'm like, dude, you should probably buy some Pepe, right?
You should probably buy some Pepe.
Pepe was trading.
Pepe.
at like half a bill or 400 mil or something like that um and i'm like at some point it's probably
gonna go crazy and you can probably stack some more sets and he's like oh i don't buy
shit coins because i got burned on luna and it's like damn bro so you're you're basically saying
that that actually i won't get into it i won't get into it because i'll probably come off as a
dick but you're kind of undermining yourself whenever you place the bad trade
When you say, oh, my edge is capped, I don't want to trade this discretionary
discretionary anymore, right?
Like, I'm not willing to go into this field.
Right.
where I can stack more stats, right?
Because the only way to stack more stats is through holding a Fiat job.
And most people, unfortunately, not everybody can have a six-figure annualized job.
They just can't.
Most people in America, they make like 50K, 40K a year.
It's actually impossible for, like, most people in this country to actively make over six figures annually.
If that would actually happen, a loaf of bread would cost $20.
So...
People are forced to go into the Hunger Games, whether it's through alts, whether it's through stock options, whether it's through buying low-cap stocks, they're just forced to do that.
And I feel like if you go into a bad trade, you shouldn't really take it out on the market.
You should be thanking the market for its tuition and then learning from that and understanding where the risk curve is, which is ultimately...
further and further down the risk curve as the separation and disparity between high class and low class
further get further apart like there will be no middle class at some point it's just going to be
the hunger games lobby would you say a good way to learn would be to use a trading journal would you say
that's fair yes yes absolutely yeah well i i would i i i have one of those have you got my book yet or what
right
I've looked at some of the content that you've put on YouTube.
Yeah, no, the new one.
I haven't narrated this new one yet.
The new one I just came out, the Trading Journal.
Not that you need it because you're on top, but I'm saying it's a pretty good little book.
I'm not on top.
I'll check it out, man.
I'll check it out.
I'll check it out if you're recommended.
Well, I wrote it.
So I hope I recommend it.
With being in markets, like you always want to be coachable, right?
Like, you never want to be like, oh, I understand it all.
Right.
Like, when you admit that you're wrong, right?
And I've certainly been wrong on a lot of things.
And I've had to like pivot my thesis multiple times this cycle. It enhances who you are as a person.
Because I think this market teaches you a lot about who you are as an individual, right?
It teaches you how you react under pressure, lessons that you learn from when you're euphoric on either direction.
And so I truly think there's no better market in this entire planet than crypto, right?
Equities is kind of a bit more slow-paced. It's,
it's understanding a narrative and positioning two quarters in advance right perhaps even
waiting multiple quarters right whether it's crypto it's kind of like you're riding a motorcycle
on a speedway where the average speed is like 120 miles an hour right and sometimes you have to
make like a right turn or a left turn in the spur of the moment so
Yeah, that's kind of how I feel, man, about, like, markets.
Good times are coming, though.
I think good times are coming.
I really do.
Yeah, you always want to be optimistic.
You can't get caught up in consolidates.
You have to, you have to churn.
Like, we were, I mean, we went up like crypto.
I'm a crypto guy.
So I was talking about that first.
I mean, we went up 50% Bitcoin did from like Trump getting elected.
Like, that has to, that has to be digested, you know?
Yeah.
With.
With crypto, like, I understand that it's here to stay, right?
Like, it's never going away anywhere anytime soon.
I consider it like the new version of a casino.
Like, why would I go to a casino that smells like crap?
It's filled with a bunch of degenerate people.
When I could just log on to Metamask or log on to Phantom or log on to an exchange and do some stuff there, right?
And it's the best barometer engaged to how people are looking to preserve or grow their capital gains, right?
It's the American dream.
The American dream is growing financial freedom through cap gains.
And I feel like that's where crypto is, right?
That's where the edges right now.
To most people that are, like, working 9 to 5.
They really just view it as like, oh, I turned 100 bucks into, you know, 300 bucks.
All right, let me use that so I can go out to eat, right?
It's not like super global consensus right now.
Probably not until Bitcoin is trading at like close to a million dollars.
or something like that unfortunately once the gap is closed between um gold and bitcoin and bitcoin
is like 500 000 then it'll be like oh like bitcoin is not a scam anymore all right i'm just
going to put this in my paycheck right um and as for alts i'm really not sure i'm not trying to
think too much far out there but retail this cycle has been actively different
Um, they're still thinking like, oh, let me buy Doge again.
Let me buy XRP again.
Not so much like on chain, right?
You remember, Chedd, 2017, that was actual retail.
That was like,
insane dude people people kind of forget that yes you could bridge from chain to chain now
but back then in 2017 2018 2019 it was the same exact shit you had to bridge from exchange to
exchange to exchange yeah like you had to buy you had to buy like coin um to transfer it over to
exchange and
Then, like, buy a token there to buy another token at another exchange.
And, you know, it's just, it was a loophole of sorts, especially if you wanted to go on like Bitmex, right?
But things often change, but more than not, more than not, they kind of,
stay the same and repeat themselves right people 2017 they went from exchange to exchange
2021 they uh went from one exchange to on chain and now this cycle people go from one chain to another
chain so it's kind of like kind of the same thing to be honest except this time around the attention
span is there's just too much stuff man there's just too much stuff right yeah
Yeah, that's why the uptrends that a lot of these alts have, a lot of their move is typically done within their first move.
It's better to catch something going from 300 mil to 5 bill instead of trying to catch it from like, you know, 5 bill to 15 bill.
Like, oh, just another 2x, right?
Just another 3x because XYZ all coin last cycle hit this ridiculous valuation.
Whether as you're saying right now, Chads, I'm totally in agreement with you.
There's too much dilution in almost every single factor.
Nobody's all coin is perfect.
The only thing that's perfect is the market.
Not only that, like our people have been extracted, you know?
Like, that's kind of effed up to me that like people have been farmed, I feel like.
And that kind of makes me mad a little bit.
Yeah, we've been farmed by practically everyone, right?
Even Coinbase pumping like the shittiest names ever.
I don't trust like government officials.
Now they're pro-Bitcoin.
I don't know.
I just feel like they want to co-op.
They just want a piece of the easy money.
And it's too easy to manipulate.
And...
You know, I'm not a lot to talk politics because I don't know anything.
I embarrassed myself before, but just like making a meme coin and then dumping in people is fucked up to me.
I don't know.
So I don't know.
Yeah.
I mean, I've gone on record to say that like, like to me, politics have very much to do with markets.
And I said this even before the election.
Like, markets under Democrats historically over the last like 60 years do way, way, way, way, way better than a Republican administration.
I think 2017 through 2020 was an anomaly.
But historically, like through Democrat administrations, we typically get a recession.
We typically get a growth scare.
And it's usually some choppy times, right?
But I understand that after 2008, things are a lot different.
And we have the Federal Reserve actually being the powers that be is they're in charge of the money supply and...
you know companies can actually conduct business for growth but more or less the trend has still
somewhat been the same right like we're seeing it right now right but i do think there are
some good times ahead and i think like
You just have to think longer term at this point in crypto, given that it's a more mature
asset, quite frankly.
It's not 2017.
It's not like a 15, 20 bill market cap asset.
It's not 2020 or 21 where there's a bunch of helicopter money flowing around.
And I think that's why Cheds, we've just seen a lot of people frustrated because they try to force
They try to force the market to see what they do instead of the other way around.
It's kind of like a little child telling their parents that they know better when in fact it's like brother five years old.
Like you don't really know much about life.
Right.
So that's how that's how like I view the market.
The market has been alive way longer.
Here's the problem for all these new participants.
They don't know who to trust.
Yeah.
There's like there's too many thought leaders, right?
There's too many KOLs and they're all doing different things.
And now there's a million tokens and it's like it's just easy to get swallowed up.
So it's just, ah, it's frustrating.
It's frustrating.
And this ties back to just 100 people on the YouTube stream today.
It's like people got cleaned out, you know.
But you can take that loss, learn from it, right?
Come back, you know, read a textbook, maybe add a tool to your belt, start doing push-ups before your next trade.
You know, do something, right?
Do something different.
And, um...
I just there's just too many bad actors but there always are you know and what are you
going to do about it except protect your own capital be more precise and careful and don't just
assume that like you said the all season's going to come and sweep you up and bring you with it
right it may or may not happen yeah and and when when or if it does right i think it's also
contingent on like how low cap tech stocks do
in the end of the end of see markets, right?
Like IWM has historically been
the triad-fi barometer of like kathy wood making money and when kathy wood makes money that is
historically over the last few years when um all coins broadly do well right that's those are sort of like
the only true indicators right um because low cap tech stocks have been around way longer than your
favorite all coin has
And I think when we look at things like BTC dominance, I think that used to be an indicator of all season.
But the fact is, Chad's, and you've been around for multiple market cycles, the flows for Bitcoin in previous cycles were mostly dominated by...
Us by retail people and they would sell their BTC for alts
Whether it is now most of the flows that have happened since Bitcoin reclaimed 20k after all the whales bought back in
They've mostly been driven by big Tradfai firms and Tradfi is not going to
Dump their iBit shares to buy your Alcoin right? I think moving forward
BTC dominance is probably going to be trading at...
That's what I'm saying.
I've been saying that for a while, yes.
Yeah, and I think to myself that whenever you buy an all coin,
you're deliberately telling yourself that you have more edge than Wall Street.
You have more edge than the Mag 7, right?
Like, you know, if you're trading stock, the Mag 7 is...
uh invidia uh microsoft apple google etc etc right like whenever you buy a low cap stock whenever
you buy a chinese stock you're telling yourself that you have more edge than the largest fund
managers in the entire world right most of the flows for bitcoin have been in heavy heavy heavy pockets
of tradfai and you see it continually right it's been over a year and the flows have been consistent very consistent
Whether it's ETH, there are some weeks where ETH has like zero flows.
It's a completely different product, way different product.
At some point, it will probably generate money, but we have to pay attention to what the market says right now.
And right now, BTC dominance looks like it's in a bull market, to be frank.
Yeah.
And it's just different, but I do think Cheds, when monetary policy goes back to more so easing, after we go neutral, I do think you'll have like that last hurrah of all season.
But I think everyone is just too focused on like the last leg up.
Here comes the last leg.
And when people are in consensus of that, it kind of makes.
it kind of makes the environment a net sell and not a net buy right um you you need your notional
buyer and if everybody is already buying if everybody has already bought who's the next buyer man
because retail got wiped they got wiped on fun on trump coin buying the top of tesla via options
probably longing hood at the top coin at the top like
There are many ways to get completely hosed.
And, you know, I said this earlier on the stream, Chads.
Even on our YouTube stream, we typically have like three, four,
five hundred, six hundred people on YouTube.
And today, it was like under 200, barely at 200.
And I accredit that to two things.
I largely think it's because most people are bored and they understand that
We're probably going to be ranging for a lot longer.
And so not much opportunity is going to be there.
Or they got wiped, walked away from the market, gave up.
And it is what it is.
It happens across all markets.
It happens across all markets.
I think it's a mix of that.
It makes a lot of sense.
And a lot of your guests who are great and really smart.
A lot of them said we're probably going to continue to range a little bit.
And I think that's fair.
Absent volatility, you really don't have much to do.
And I've just been saying on my YouTube and Bitcoin Live pretty much,
It's kind of a no trade zone for me right here in Bitcoin.
I mean, you can even play around with 84-5, but it's too choppy for me personally.
I don't like the structure locally.
And maybe we need a broader, like you said, policy change to kind of get things going.
So, you know, I'll be ready for it as a possibility.
I'm not predicting it, but I'll be ready for it like one of your guests said earlier.
Just have, you know, just be ready for possibilities.
It's all you can really do.
Facts, man. Donnie, if there's anything that you want to say, brother,
feel free to chime in, man, if you want to give some of your thoughts.
Yeah, I was just going to say, like, I really like the setup that we have here,
because with this, like, mountain of uncertainty, right?
And the way that April and May and the subsequent months are laid out, right,
with these three back-to-back meetings in May, June, and July for the Fed,
and all of the economic data in April...
and everybody sidelined and people crushed, probably sold the low or got wiped out on leverage.
You've got the setup for an incremental pricing out across the board, which actually fuels a formal rally.
This is the whole point of like an old coin wipeout before like a big monetary shift.
right now in hindsight to me it's obvious like okay yeah of course they're going to absolutely
wipe out the market right before like a big monetary shift in policy to where you actually
get like a you know the fuel for a sustained up trend essentially and i keep mentioning how like
you've got catalysts crypto-specific catalysts that are going to be lurking in the background we know
the strategic bitcoin reserve is um you know confirmed now once liquidity is
well, once liquidity conditions are, you know, favorable, that's when all the catalysts come out, you know, one after the other, bang, bang, bang, bang, and you've got the liquidity to fuel that uptrend.
So it doesn't stop anymore, not this like false start and then stop that we just kept seeing throughout this entire cycle.
So I feel like April really like honestly keep your eyes peeled and watch for this.
I feel like you're just going to start incrementally grinding higher on BTC until, let's say,
like May 7th, the first Fed meeting.
Let's say they pivot right there.
It could be postponed to the next meeting.
We don't know that.
But according to the April data and price action, if people are front running that meeting of a potential pivot,
Prices could be, let's say, like around 995 for BTC, right on the meeting, maybe you get, or hitting into the meeting, just a little bit of de-risking and then the confirmation of upside right there.
And that's where you squeeze all of the liquidity on BTC.
If you see I shared a chart of like the local setup at the moment, above 99500, you've literally left liquidity at.
102.7, 104, 107, and the all-time high for a squeeze, right? And we do know that that shift in monetary policy is what everybody is waiting for to actually, you know, have their risk appetite renewed.
So I think the setup for a squeeze is there and also the setup to incrementally bring people back into the market is there, which fuels that like, you know, typical renewed optimism, FOMO, euphoria, sort of, you know, roadmap. That typically happens on a bluff top if we get it here and over the coming months.
Donnie, we have a special guest, man.
Santa Claus himself.
Where?
You know, I, I had a Christmas wish list.
I have Uncle Joe here.
He, he, he was saying, look under your Christmas tree on Christmas.
You'll have a nice gift.
Oh, I've been checking under my Christmas.
I forgot.
I'm sorry.
That'll be tonight.
You can get my word.
I totally forgot, man.
I apologize.
I've been really busy at work.
I've, I've, I,
I've been checking my Christmas tree.
And all I keep seeing are red candles.
I keep seeing red candles, brother.
And I'm thinking to myself, where's Uncle Joe?
I thought he was going to lower rates.
Uncle Joe told me Powell was going to rate, not raise rates, excuse me.
Oh, my goodness.
I'm sorry.
I'm never going to say it again.
I thought I was going to have not only a gift, but a guideline and where the Fed were going to go.
Yeah, we had a great week, huh?
It was awesome.
Yeah.
Man, Joe, let me kind of pick your brain here, man.
Now that you're here to talk some shop, I'm not sure how long you have.
I'm always running from place to place.
I've been really busy, man.
I'm so sorry.
So, Joe, I'll get, I'll get straight to the chase.
So the Fed is now in line to reduce their quantitative tightening by a significant margin.
They were online to do that already.
That's like, it's the biggest macro-larp event with it.
Like, literally, they telegraphed this like six months ago.
I mean, so they issue a dot plot.
We got a dot-plot meeting, right?
Right.
And the problem people have is they don't actually go, they only read the headlines.
They don't actually dig under what they're saying.
And they told us back in October of last year that the balance sheet runoff was nearing
So it was a question of May or June.
I guess we have more clarity now, you know, if it really matters to you that much about
reduction of quantity of tightening, which.
to me is like the biggest nothing burger right now. I think that should not be your focus at all.
It should be focused on like the actual fact that they both increase the inflation expectations
in their dot plot. And they also decreased their economic output expectations. So they say,
we think that there's going to be higher inflation moving to the end of the year. And at the same time,
we think that there's going to be lower growth. We're moving from like a 2.7 reel to like a
high ones, low twos.
So that's the move.
It's not liquidity.
It's driven the real economy, like the fears of the, you know, the quote unquote growth slowdown, growth scare, whatever you want to call it.
So like it's not a liquidity move in the markets.
Like the S&P isn't 10% off or on the bottom of tick to, I think 10%.
We bounced a little bit from there.
But it didn't do that just because of like liquidity.
It did it because of, you know, a growth scare.
Now, the question is whether a gross care becomes a growth, you know, actual slowdown.
That's the real question.
Joe, do you think this is a growth slowdown akin to that second half of 2018 when Trump also went to,
on his tariff war and all that stuff and um you know i think uh it came to a point where
trump had private meetings with powell and um some funny some some some funny um headlines came out
apparently trump was yelling at pow and powell only has what joe like
14 months left.
Yeah, you better enjoy them while you got them.
Like the goat is leaving stage right.
April of 26, man.
So what an era.
What an absolutely dominating record, right?
I'm going to miss his pressers.
You're going to get some yokel in there.
That doesn't know what they're talking about.
They're going to be overly defensive.
And we're going to be really missing Paul.
I think like a year from now, two years from now, you're going to be like, wow,
I live during the J. Powell era.
I was really fortunate.
I'm being facet.
And there's no...
And there's no possibility of him going for a third term, right?
Like, this is it?
I mean, if Trump reappoints him, but my guess is Trump's going to go a very different
direction with the Fed.
What direction do you think that's going to be?
Do you think he's going to go to someone that just wants to stimulate the economy?
Well, can we have that conversation maybe in the beginning of the next year?
It's a great one, but time is limited here.
So we've got much more exciting market action here that we need to talk about.
We got Cheds on the stage, Donnie.
You know, you guys, I really think we need to be locked in here because this is exciting in markets.
I am, you know, every day I get up, I check the charts.
And, you know, I hear Chad's talking about the no trade zone.
That's fine.
But, you know,
you're going to get amazing opportunities, both potentially bullish and bearish moving out six months from now.
So you got, you know, do the work right now because you got opportunities.
And what I keep sensing is this sort of apathy where people are just like, oh, there's no opportunity.
There's always opportunities, you know, as their good friend Jim Kramer says, there's a bull market somewhere.
And the question is, are you going to open up and find it and do the work?
Well, I think China right now, being long China, that's a bull market right there.
You have Baba just absolutely ripping face.
And the Hangsang has effectively been bearish up until recently.
And I think Tommy, he's had some call options open since, like, December or something like that.
He sold down near the top of U.S. and migrated over to China.
So I think there's some opportunity in China, first and foremost.
He moved?
No, no, no, no, no, no, like capital, capital, I was going to say, is that would be really, that would show a lot of confidence in your trade.
If you actually move to where you're investing, that would be huge.
But China's a lot more advanced in infrastructure, some parts of China, at least.
Have you been?
Have you been?
Spoken like a man.
I have not.
I have only.
I've only had experience through TikTok, Joe.
I've been to China, but through TikTok.
And I have to say, I love it.
Have you been to China, brother?
I have not.
But, you know, maybe one day.
I'd like to get there.
I was curious what you're referencing when you were saying their infrastructure is much more advanced.
Are they talking about the toilets or the roads or what's more advanced?
Yeah, toilets are like in the future, right?
Like in Japan, you know, do have some familiarity with that, but...
Man, Uncle Joe, man, you must be winning cases, man.
I've been very, very busy.
But let's talk markets here, okay?
Let's talk about what they, here's where I think you can definitely separate the folks that
are just like parroting what some macro guru guru is saying from those that are actually trying
to think through this issue.
We got a very different dynamic Wabi.
from prior cycles, right?
We've got the Trump administration openly saying that there's going to be some role
in the economy, that it's about to roll over.
That's what Besson is saying.
You've got the Trump administration saying during the first address to Congress that, you know,
there's going to be a little turbulence.
It's going to be a little bumpy.
And I think they are well aware that the actions they're taking are not, you know, low volatility actions.
There are actions that are triggering a lot of people get jittery.
Now, the question is, are those jitters, are those sort of turbulence from the volatility
to the administration, does that translate into actual economic weakness?
Now, it can, right?
The base expectation I have is that it does.
You shave off a little bit of the real GDP, you know, which is still solid.
You know, you're still running relatively high, you know, cut out the Atlanta Fed numbers.
We can talk about that way.
I think that's.
a total waste of time to focus on that because the import export data.
But the question is, do we actually slow down?
And if we do slow down, where do we go from there?
Because the Trump administration, they have to look at the political calendar.
They got basically a year before the midterms really heat up.
And if they're hell-bent and determined on trying to cause a growth slowdown that could tip over and do a recession, that's going to have real consequences for markets.
Now, I don't believe that.
I don't think that they think they can cause a recession and get the ship righted in time for the midterms.
I think what they're trying to do is they're trying to shave off a little bit of growth.
They're going to sacrifice a little bit of economic growth for the next quarter or so and potentially get some, you know, very low, if not negative real GDP prints.
But what they'll be celebrating is basically slaughtering the last little bit of inflation.
They think that they could bring that down, they can get that close to 2%, and declare victory.
for the quote-unquote everyday Americans complaining about their gas and oil and egg and, you know, commodities prices.
That's what I think is the game plan. Let's see if they can accomplish it.
But that's the real quick question. Is all this tariff back and forth? Is this truly going to cause us a serious growth slowdown because that is real implication for markets?
Or is it just a lot of hot air and people uneasy and nervous, perhaps, you know, unjustifiably?
And you're going to learn.
And to me, the most important thing, forget the Fed, forget, you know, monetary policy at this point.
Look at April 2nd.
Because April 2nd, you're going to get the terrorists put on.
Trump has already said, you know, that they're...
the coming, you know, be prepared for it.
And are you going to get reciprocal tariffs that are significant?
And is this going to be a long, drawn out trade war we're going to be dealing with the entire summer?
Or alternatively, if it's not a long drawn out, maybe you get the terrorists put on April 2nd.
Then you get maybe some modest retaliation, if any, or maybe none.
And then we're off to talking about new things.
We're talking about tax cut bill that's going to be pushed.
We're going to talk about perhaps other stimulus packages that I think Trump wants to get through the Congress.
And that's going to be the story of the summer.
So the best case scenario for a bullish market is, can you get this the negative, the medicine, as they're trying to say it is?
I think that term was used purposely by Besson.
Can you get the medicine down and pass that and get to the good stuff?
But by the time of this is the summer, and then can we have a nice little rally in
Acosterous Assets.
Speaking about April 2nd, Donnie has some confluence around that day.
Donnie, if you want to talk about what Joe had mentioned, man, I know you've been paying
attention to those dates and also really have the emphasis on some volatility over the
summertime, brother.
Yeah.
So basically what Joe said just there, like you're probably going to get some de-risking
or potentially even on the day of April 2nd.
on BTC and obviously risk markets in total, but I'm specifically looking at BTC.
You've still got liquidity remaining below at 79K.
So whether you take that out before or after, I don't know, and you've still got support
around like 73,600 on the actual chart that I shared, right?
But the main thing with that, what Joe just said is that it has the possibility to clear the uncertainty, right?
If Trump and his administration stop going like flip-floppy on tariffs after that date, I think the market will just accept it for how it is.
And if there is no more, you know...
trade wars and all this kind of stuff to do with that from that date moving forward,
then you do have a whole bunch of economic data coming out in April that I think the market
will try and front run any of these Fed meetings that, you know, they've left subsequently
back to back to be able to pivot if needed, right?
And we know that, you know, the Fed at this FOMC meeting, they made it pretty clear that
they're in this kind of like reactive state of basically what comes forth from the administration
and through all of this stuff.
Yeah.
that they will, you know, accommodate if needed.
So depending on how to want that.
Okay, Donnie, just to be clear, you do not want them to be moving over.
And this is where you got to separate the men from the boys and the macro analysis.
It is not bullish if the Fed says, oh, we're cutting more than our two forecast at hikes right now.
Because what that means is that they realize they're behind the curve and they're slow to react to slowing economic conditions.
And they're having to give more cuts than necessary.
The bullish scenario is that they keep in line with their already given expectations, their forward guidance in the summer of economic projections, or,
which is you get two more cuts this year and you get more cuts next year.
That's what they've told the market right now.
That's what's currently priced in.
That's the expectations.
If you see, oh, we're having to do an emergency 50 base point cut,
that's not bullish for risk assets, guys.
That's not what you want to see.
Yeah, it's just that like what I'm saying is if the data comes out good in April,
right, the market's going to be front running those cuts, whatever they are, right?
It doesn't have to be like a dot plot of them, you know, having more rate cuts for the year
because they've announced two.
If they start cutting in May, do one cut there or project one for or talk about one for
in like July or something, then I think that could be bullish, right?
Because that's going to continue the trends of DXY, the yields going down, and that's ultimately expanding the global monetary supply that we've been watching.
So these trends have started to confirm themselves, like a DXY bearish top yields are potentially forming a bearish top here.
So that actual like...
you know, positivity coming from the Fed because they're still, you know, waiting to react to something.
I think that could continue those trends, which ultimately is going to, you know, feed risk assets.
Yeah. I mean, another way to put it is like there's good reasons for cuts and there's bad reasons for cuts.
The bad reason for cuts are if you have slower economic growth, potentially contractionary forces in GDP, like if you're bringing negative prints of GDP.
That's a bad reason.
A good reason for a cut would be if, you know, we get fed, we get the, what is it, the, what is it, the,
Philly Fed, I can't remember the Cleveland Fed, the one that does the Atlanta Fed equivalent of the CPI.
If you see CPI matching truflation where it's sub 2% currently, that's a good reason for a cut.
You know, that's why they cut last year because they saw CPI coming down closer to 2% target.
So there's good reason for cut and bad reason.
You can't just, it's not as simple as cut equal bullish.
That's way too simplistic.
Yeah, definitely.
And like that's what I mean by there in like this reactionary state.
So they're going to see, you know, how data is looking and are they going to be cutting
like Joe said from like, oh, oh damn, like things are going wrong?
We need to act now or oh, okay.
inflation is actually going down, even though all these tariffs and stuff were suspected to,
you know, cause inflation and all this kind of stuff, right?
There's this pocket, there's this window of opportunity over those months to where the Fed
might actually, you know, cut rates from a positive standpoint because we do have this real-time
data, you know, potentially could be loading up here in April, right?
Now, this is why I've been thinking potentially you could actually form a cycle top around
like July, August.
if they actually do start cutting here because they see real-time data coming in with their lagging data as positive, right?
And as the cycle plays on and actually these tariffs do end up being inflationary, I don't know if they will be or not.
But if it does start affecting their data and they already started to ease, they're going to have to retitain, you know, somewhere near, you know,
potentially the end of the year or before that, which could actually, you know,
cause a cycle top essentially if they're having to pivot back to tightening.
So there's this pocket where they could start easing and it might actually be,
you know, the wrong move in the sense of like long term,
but for the market, you're going to have like an extreme blow off top pretty early.
here over the summer potentially.
That's something that I'm watching for.
The most interesting chart to me, just looking at it, and I can make bearish and bullish
cases.
I have any you chartists that want to comment on it.
I think it's fascinating is pull up, you know, the 10-year yield chart.
And to be clear, you know, the way you're supposed to use is you're supposed to use ZN.
ZN is the futures contract if you're trading 10-year notes in the futures.
That's really the way you're not supposed to chart off the yields.
But that's the most fascinating one to me.
I think you can make a case there.
Yield's heading higher, and you can make a case,
yields going much lower.
And it's kind of, for me, that's sort of a no-tray zone.
I can't figure that one out.
If I can figure that one out, I can tell you what's going to happen.
There's not much of a trend, Joe, on the daily chart for that.
Right. That's what I'm saying. I can't read it any, I mean, any input I would appreciate
because I can't, I don't have this confidence either way.
I think we'll get resolution though from it. Just all in printing in two or three months.
Just kind of look at the weekly chart. It's tightening range. So I think it's going to break
this range in like two or three months.
Yeah, so just to why that's important, the way I see is that, like, look, like the 10-year kicker is the ultimate recession indicator.
If the 10-year deal is crashing down, that's telling you economic growth is contraction, is in contraction, and we're headed for recession.
Conversely, if it's rising, that's a bullish indicator.
It's not bearish because what is telling you is telling you that economic growth remains solid.
We're going to be dealing with inflation, but you're not going to slip into recession,
which ultimately, that's probably better for markets.
I mean, look at the tenure when it was ripping, you know, through the fall there.
It was going higher.
Ten year yields were basically, I think, until January, Bitcoin was doing fine.
You know, Bitcoin was performing fine in the face of higher 10 year yields.
So to me, right, in this regime, like you kind of want the tenure to be trend sideways
or potentially slowly rise, not fall.
If it's falling, that's the recession trade.
I don't really have much to add when it comes.
Yeah.
to yield Uncle Joe, that's your...
Yeah, the other interesting market is gold, right?
Like, the gold chart is pretty fascinating here.
I mean, gold had had a bit of a red day here.
It could be just a blip on the way to higher highs, right?
But it's an interesting chart.
I remember that happened last year.
Gold actually outperformed BTC from March up until BTC had bottomed at 48 in August.
Weird market, man.
It's been a tough market.
What I always like is that gold has become like the consensus it only goes up from here.
Like it's very even hard to find, even among people that don't like gold.
I mean, I won't say you were saying it, but there were folks that were saying that they were really getting long gold here in some of the crypto spaces.
And to me, like, whenever I hear that, like,
That was a fun space.
That was a fun space.
What I interpreted you were going along gold, Wabi, you said, like, you're just going to
fully pour gold.
Yeah.
I actually sold, like, all your gold.
You dumped it all?
All the rock?
Pretty much.
No, I, like, I, like, I had sold everything that I had left.
Even the teeth?
In equities.
And, no, no, I mean, like, all the assets that I had were just, like, sold off.
Like I look back on that space and I'm like damn bro like that sounds pretty euphoric to me and
I've been mostly like flat since then with a few trades here and there
You're 100% in cash no come on really probably probably probably more like
Yeah, basically, basically, I've only done a few sporadic trades in crypto here and there.
You're too young to be 100% cash.
You're too young.
You're way too young.
I'm just, I'm scared.
Don't be scared.
Don't be scared.
Just manage risks.
That's your job, right?
And I don't do the date trading as much as you guys do, but like, you know, you got to manage risk.
That's all you need to do.
You need to, and take your money and put it in solid assets.
You want to own assets.
You're never going to be able to call all the moves in a market.
You have your trading stack and then you have your hold stack, right?
If you want to scratch the edge of trading, go be it.
God bless.
But I'm just saying you got to own some assets for the long term.
Okay, you have to.
Anybody hearing this, not financial advice, of course.
But if you don't hold any assets, I don't know what you're doing.
Like, why are you even watching markets?
Like, you got to hold some just has some skin in the game.
Yeah, I feel like...
I'm still bullish on BTC, of course.
But I just feel like with alts where most of my edges...
A lot of these plays happen within a couple of days, right?
Like one ticker, KTA, went from like 5-0.
Hang on a sec.
You got to get some coins in cold storage, okay?
You got to get coins in cold storage, and then forget about them.
Just leave them alone, okay?
I don't know.
Your ticker is because Bitcoin.
We have to orange pill that because Bitcoin.
You need to hold Bitcoin, okay?
I don't understand this.
A, hey, some of us, some of us were...
We're long MSTR for like 18 months.
I think that that was a pretty good.
Your progeny, they're going to be like, what was Bobby doing in all these spaces talking about Farkoin
all these things?
And he doesn't hold any Bitcoin in cold storage.
I don't care.
We're going to change that tonight.
We're going to change that tonight.
Joe, Farcoigne went up like 30.
Yeah, that's fine.
That's fine.
It's great.
I hope you made a banger on it.
You should port that fully into at least some Bitcoin holdings.
I can't.
I mean, this is why I think you get this feeling of apathy and disappointment in these crypto rooms that I go in.
Because...
They all are, they have such little Bitcoin exposure.
They're all like, oh, yeah, I've got like, you know, 0.1 Bitcoin and I've got everything else
in all these random, you know, Gary Johnson coin and things.
I mean, like, what are you doing?
Like, look, look, look, here's what we're doing, Uncle Joe.
Yeah.
We're focusing our concentration out in the markets so we can squeeze out some gains and really put the pulp in our bank accounts.
Right.
We call it inverse orange juice, Uncle Joe, right?
But yeah, it's...
Kind of where I'm at right now, man.
I think it's kind of a trader's environment.
Like, I understand, like, Caudill and all that stuff.
Like, I've been around since December of 2017.
So it's like, if you've been here since 2017, 2018, 2019, like,
You're pretty much net in the green.
I just feel like with like the cold.
What are you talking about?
Like net in the green.
Like you could be net in the green with treasuries.
Like what do you talk?
Net in the green.
If you've been around since 2017 and you're not sitting on credible gains, you're
either pretending to be a trader without any, you know, real understanding of risk or on
Alternatively, you just don't understand this market and the capital inflows and you just didn't get it and you panic sold or whatever, which is fine.
We all make mistakes, right? We all go through that learning curve.
Important thing is to learn from your mistakes, Wabi, to learn.
Have treasuries outperform the pace of inflation, like over the last couple of years?
Because I know with things like the S&P, right?
Really, the bulk of the gains have come from 23 and 24 and 2020.
I think those were years where the S&P marked up by like 20 plus percent.
But for the most part, like, if we take inflation for what it is, the S&P rarely beats out inflation
because we all know that the CPI numbers are cooked.
the reality is that most things like the cost of goods living and expenses and all that stuff
have marked up significantly over the last few years it hasn't been like 10 this is where we
get into these discussions right about like like how do we how do we measure the inflation and
the reality is that you know the inflation for joe is different than the reflation for wabi
so like you know we all pay for different things i pay for like child care you don't pay for
child care that type of thing
So, like, it's really hard to baseline this.
I mean, I know people throw up the charts like gold versus the S&P and they try to, you know, make arguments about that.
But, you know, gold's in like a secular bull market.
So it's like it's not a really good comparison.
Like, you have to build out your own model.
What's your preferred gauge?
But I take your point.
Like.
If the government data is cooked and not reliable, what is your measure?
Are you going to say inflation's running 10% right now?
I don't think it is.
I don't see that in the bills anymore.
I saw a burst of inflation 2022 that was really significant in some in 2021 as well.
And then I see it kind of taper off.
It just being sticky high.
And yeah, you get the two or three percent or four, whatever it is.
So the question is like, like, how are you measuring it?
And, yeah.
To me, like if you, even if you take, let's just assume you've had annual rates of inflation of eight or nine percent, which I don't think it's that high.
The S&Ps absolutely crushed that.
So yes, it absolutely has.
Donnie, Ted's if there isn't, if there's anything that you guys want to say, feel free to do so.
I got to wrap up here.
The gym closes in like three hours.
I have to go train upper body.
It's going to be pretty swell.
I know it's crazy.
Yeah.
I think I told this story, but I was doing some skull crushers with 165.
And on the 10th rep, I feel my left try to.
So you're laying down on the flat bench.
You have a barbell.
You have a close grip.
And then you extend your elbows back to your skull, like, you know, past your forehead.
And the bar touches the bench.
You have a slight pause, and then you extend back up.
And the only joints that move are your elbows.
It's specifically for tricep isolation.
And I wasn't wearing any, like, I don't really like to use protective gear, like elbow wraps or elbow sleeves or any of that shit.
Because I'm a man and I like to feel force and I like to fight against that force.
And most grown men can't really bench 165 for 10, or even skull crush it at that.
But either way, not to brag, on the 10th rep, I felt a little pull.
And then two days later, there was some bruising, and I couldn't even extend a dumbbell over 10 pounds to do some tricep extensions.
And a couple weeks better, a couple of weeks later, I'm now at like,
85% back to the weight that I was pushing.
Did something happen else?
Like, didn't you get another inter?
Yeah, my, my, my trice.
Oh, I thought you got another injury.
It was my triceps.
Something else.
Like you pulled your groin or something.
No, no, no, no, no.
No, no.
I've only had like a slight pull in my groin over the last year.
Yeah, there was something you texted me about the groin was right.
I remember that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, that was only for like a couple of days.
Outside of that, I pulled my oblique in August, but injuries happen, man.
It's kind of like life.
When you step outside, you can never be too short.
But what's the point of life if you don't go out with a few scars?
You know what I'm saying?
Yeah.
And honestly, like, if you're able-bodied, like, push yourself in some sort of physicality because markets are cool and all that stuff and ranchering and bantering about, like, charts are cool.
But if you can't express that physically, whether it's in the gym, whether it's on a sport, right?
I've been doing some boxing over the last, like, two years.
That's been pretty nice.
I feel like your edge in these markets kind of gets deteriorated because you end up getting bored.
Yeah.
And it's like the same conversation over and over again.
By the way, did you ever watch that movie I told you to watch Rounders?
You ever watch it?
So I ended up watching.
Use Zoomers.
I can't even deal with it.
I ended up...
So I ended up watching this anime called Sankamoto Days.
You got to watch, I got to go.
But you got to watch Rounders, okay?
Well, that's an unbelievable movie.
It's unbelievable.
None of these zoomers know about it.
But one of the great lines from Rounders is that if you're too fucking careful,
your whole life becomes a grind, Robbie.
So you got to watch Rounders, okay?
Okay.
I like Kinesh. He's got to pay rent, you know?
The whole, yeah, he eats.
Like, it's a great trading movie, even if you're not in the poker.
You got to, I got to go right now.
Oh, it's a trading movie.
It's not about trading, but it's about thought process and risk and return and, you know, betting it all.
You know, it's got a great theme, recognizing who you are as a person.
Anyway, I really got to go, but you should watch Rounders.
It's a classic.
Do it tonight, and I will be catching on the next space.
Everybody take care.
Thank you, Joe. Be well.
For sure.
I'm excited for the gift, Uncle Joe.
Thank you for coming on, brother.
Donnie, Chaz, if there is anything else that you guys want to say, feel free to do so.
Just check out my YouTube and check out my new book and have a great night and love yourself.
Don, anything else that you want to say before you wrap up, guys?
No, bro. That was a good sish.
Just, yeah, watch for April.
First few weeks will probably be pretty volatile and look to confirm the low in April.
That's what's up, man.
All right, guys.
Thank you all so much for tuning in.
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