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Market Talk- 120k BTC soon!? Stocks hit new highs!? Crypto lagging!?
Recorded: Jan. 6, 2026 Duration: 1:33:39Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts analyzed the implications of the S&P 500 reaching new heights, signaling a bullish trend that could positively influence Bitcoin and altcoin markets. Key topics included the potential for institutional investment in crypto, the impact of regulatory developments, and the resilience of certain altcoins amidst market fluctuations.
Full Transcription
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You know what's going on guys, I'm gonna go ahead and get started. Usually I let the song play fully, but I just feel like getting the show started, man. I'm all pumped up.
And man, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high today. Q's kind of lagging behind.
miners yesterday and I've been taking a look at iron and looks pretty damn good if I'm being uh
if I'm being honest here y'all uh we even had one of our guys here at BB interested in longing MSTR
so maybe there is a massive catch-up move that crypto is going to have we did have BTC yesterday
making uh fresh local highs in respect to its December high. Not much going on on majors in altcoins, but on-chain some stuff is starting to recover.
Things like Avicii, a few other names as well that are like have been recovering lately.
And man, you know, we were talking about the S&P yesterday potentially hitting anywhere from like 71, 7,200.
And then that's when we'll
probably see crypto starting to catch up here. And we do have Trump about announce his selection
for a new Fed chair momentarily. I think it happens later on this week. And then, of course,
we have Narnfond payrolls, which that stuff is already, I think it's already baked in, to be honest.
And it's probably just going to result in a spike upwards. And there is a clear momentum shift
happening in the market. And I think altcoins are the first one to sniff that out. And I think the
most important thing that we have to remember is that regardless of the market trend, if this is inevitably going to be an all-time high break for majors,
is that asset selection, the altcoin space, is probably going to be the most important thing that you can do.
Because anytime we start to have these bounces, a lot of the time, some of these bounces end up just being dedicated bounces.
And then you have your outperformers and all that stuff, which absolutely dominate the broader market.
And I don't really think crypto is going to change in that perspective.
Because ever since 2017, the game has always been rotate, rotate, rotate.
We even saw that during last cycle.
DeFi peaked out well before l1s
and nfts did l1s topped out before nfts did and uh that's just the name of the game man same thing
with this cycle you had your vc coins topping out in early 2024 um then you had memes top out before
ai then you had ai top out and i mean i I guess Trump and Melania coin were meme coins.
But those things are absolute anomalies.
And something pretty interesting that happened today is the Venezuelan stock market closed
like almost 20% on the day today.
Yeah, I just saw it on my feed.
I don't really know much about the Venezuelan stock
market. But I do think Trump essentially having control of tens of billions of dollars in oil
essentially elongates this super cycle of a bull market that we've been in since March of 2009,
probably for another 10 years, man. It's probably a lot of those proceeds of these oil sales probably go into more AI development, probably going to have something to do with a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
I think that would be a Chad move, to be honest, selling oil, selling oil and then twopping that into Bitcoin.
I think that would be absolutely insane, man.
And I do think that is possible.
And if that does end up happening later this year, I think Bitcoin probably goes insanely
into price discovery and puts in a similar move that silver did from April of last year all the way to late December where silver went up
about 200 percent which is still insane to me that is uh absolute insanity and
I I really don't know a time period at all in silver's history where silver went up that amount that quickly. I really, really, really don't.
But I got Prometheus up here, got Evan, got Josh.
It's going to be an interesting discussion today.
Anytime we see the indices creeping up into price discovery,
usually about 3% to 4%, maybe 5% gap up in its previous all-time high we usually
tend to see crypto moving aggressively i'm not really looking at the iwm as much i i truly don't
think uh that index has any sort of signal anymore at least not for now we We had the IWM creeping towards new all-time highs.
It actually started to make these like one to two point move new highs back in Q4.
And crypto did absolutely nothing.
Alt got slammed, they flatlined, and Bitcoin was in between like a $3,000 range between $85,000
to $88,000.
It was absolutely abysmal, to be honest, extremely abysmal.
Maybe if ARK Invest starts to trend up aggressively, that'll be signal for for crypto. It certainly was back in the summertime, which I mean, you had really all sectors in crypto
doing well from that time period between like call it mid May all the way to mid August.
You could have just thrown a dart and and made some money truthfully.
And I think that's probably going to be the same case
if we just see the S&P going to like 7,200.
Maybe we see equity start to consolidate around those levels
and then crypto has a massive catch-up.
And BTC actually does look pretty damn good, man.
It really, really does.
And I'm actually glad that there's no froth
right now on chain, except maybe White Whale, which got listed on Bybit. And that's probably
the greatest CTO that this entire market has ever seen. It essentially went from like 700k,
Essentially went from like 700K, 800K market cap all the way to 100 mil.
That is absolute legendary stuff.
But outside of that, there's not really any amount of crazy speculation on chain.
No narratives to look forward to, be honest crypto specific um I think the market
structure bill got delayed again um yeah I think that stuff is gonna be pushed out I think now it's
pushed out to like 2028 now last time I saw but uh either way I'm gonna go ahead and get started welcome back guys to market
talk brought to you by BB uh hope you all have had a fantastic Tuesday or Wednesday depending
on where you are in the world thus far spaces are recorded we're gonna go ahead and cook for you
guys over the next uh 45 minutes it is the start of the year so um probably not much is going to happen until after uh probably after the next fomc man
um and right now i i don't really think that the fed is expected to cut um but uh typically
typically like the second month of q1 things really really start to turn up. And that's when you start to see some insane volatility.
If you circle back over the last 10 years, usually February is insanely volatile.
January tends to kind of be a nothing burger of sorts, with the exception of like an inauguration,
right?
That's where you have your exception.
But usually February,
we start to see incredible trending moves, whether it's bull market, whether it's bear market.
Last February was volatile. Same thing with the year before and the year before and the year
before and the year before that. So I'm excited, man. I'm really excited. And something funny, I saw a post saying that a basket of good alts to short would be things like With, Pepe, Dot, a few other names as well.
And I'm sure some of you guys have seen this clip from a certain podcast.
And all those names are up like 40 plus percent year to date which is absolute
comedy man and i i do think that this year the market has something insanely hilarious that it's
capable of doing which is basically running back one more time and in a big way uh and something
else that i'll notice that in case you guys missed
out on yesterday's show is that it's been about three months since the top. And at this point,
right, if you compare it to any other cycle, after Bitcoin had topped and it's been over 90 days,
in over 90 days you you you usually see bitcoin um at about like the 35 close to 40 drawdown
and we're not anywhere near those levels at all uh same thing with all coins majors specifically
you'd usually see them down like 70 to 80 i'm talking about the top 10 here. I'm not talking about any of the other stuff on
chain or anything like that. So something that I'm thinking to myself is like, if the bull market
wasn't exactly the same as previous bull markets, then perhaps any sort of downturn that we have
won't exactly be the same as previous downturns.
And I think just from what we've all experienced
from, say, March of 2024 all the way to August of 2024
and some parts of Q1 of last year
is that the thing that drives market participants crazy the most is flatlined price action and nothing to do on-chain.
Probably more so nothing to do on-chain because we're so used to being terminally online on this app and seeking some alpha, seeing a few tickers to ape into.
alpha seeing a few tickers to ape into and whenever on chain runs dry I I think people
honestly go crazy and start pulling their hair and they start saying that crypto sucks and all
these things but uh anyways guys before I pass it on to the other guys if you guys can go ahead
and show some love to the stream show some love to the space the The best way to do that, guys, is by clicking the spaces tab.
Once you guys do that, you'll see a nice link that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
You guys already know what to do.
You guys always do such a great job at this.
Click the repost button.
Damn, dude, I'm really stuttering today.
Click the repost button.
Hit the like button.
Smash it up, guys. Does a number of things.
Helps bring the show and the
brand more out into the algorithm helps to bring more people in here and uh without further ado
i'm gonna go ahead and pass it on over to josh first man josh happy new year's man how was your
vacation welcome back to the show man looking forward to the discussion bro yeah thanks for
having me on today man it's uh feels good to be back. I think I'm starting to see a lot of people just ready to lock in. It was actually pretty hard to bear through the last three months of this market.
But liquidity is trying to open back up, and I think a lot of people are just excited and refreshed. And with market sentiment still at this crazy low, I think it's opened up a lot of discussion for still tons of upside
possibility and opportunities here in this market movement in the Q1. For me, I think a lot of
people in this space, they'll probably feel pretty much the same way, but I'm incredibly bullish on
2026. I've been a strong believer that the four-year cycle wasn't necessarily like a myth. It did work for a period of time, but I truly believe in both A, diminishing returns, but
B, the extended business cycles here due to tariffs and sanctions and different fiscal
and monetary policies that have structurally shifted massively since 2020 with COVID-19.
I mean, the amount of both fiscal and monetary changes we've seen in just the last four years probably outperformed the last 20 years in terms of legislative differences we've
had with our economy. So for me in 2026, there's a lot I'm watching for. I wouldn't say people
should have FOMO and just like ape into the market right now because there's still a lot of
uncertainty, I guess, that is still floating around in the markets in terms of
liquidity. And liquidity is the number one conversation people need to be having right now.
But I do believe just from a technical perspective, I mean, if you're looking at the monthly,
the weekly, and even the daily in some cases, you're showing that sign of others of Bitcoin and
just Bitcoin overall, Bitcoin dominance getting weaker. Others, Bitcoin getting stronger.
And, you know, the business cycle looking to start to see a pretty decent injection.
And if you guys watch Donald Trump's speech today, I mean, they're pretty clear about what they're doing here.
They're very worried about midterms.
Midterms are by far one of the most important things you need to be watching this year because it has a huge play and impact on the overall market atmosphere. So what happens during the midterm year during a president's
second administrative approach, not the first. If you guys look historically through presidents
that are in for four years, the following, if they're only in for four years, usually the
midterms rotates whoever's in the House or the Senate. So you're looking at a change in either Democrats to Republicans or Republicans to Democrats based off a majority.
However, the majority of the time when a president is in their second term, midterms do stay the same, whether it's Republicans staying Republicans or Democrats staying Democrats.
And right now we're at a very interesting moment because, you know, the media does want to portray Donald Trump as someone that's losing intense popularity.
And I would have to argue that he probably has lost a decent amount.
Nowhere near as what CNN or MSNBC or these news outlets like to make it to be.
But due to the Epstein files and what just happened in Venezuela, he's getting a lot of flack. And so it doesn't
matter that there's crazy fraud happening in Minnesota, or if there's fentanyl issues across
the United States, or veterans are struggling from a cost affordability crisis here. What
matters is the mainstream narrative. That's what every retailer and voter is going to latch onto.
If you guys don't believe me, go interview any protesters from both the right or left. These people have very, very, very low IQs, unfortunately.
So it's all about the narrative.
So what do I expect moving into 2026 is simply what Scott Besson and Trump have been saying if they want to actually beat it in midterms.
And that is going to be both fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Fiscal and monetary stimulus, but I think you're going to see whether it's tax exempts moving into tax season here in April or if it's actual stimulus injection directly into the economy through checks because of the tariff revenue that we've been being granted or not being granted, but being given.
That's stuff that may or may not happen moving into April to May. Now, there is a good argument to be made that if there's any stimulus this year, it won't be until August, about three months prior to midterms, because they don't want to
waste the impact that would have on both a retail perspective and a narrative approach for midterms,
because people have an attention span of goldfish. I mean, literally, it's like the new cycle two
weeks ago doesn't exist two weeks from now. Venezuela, nobody will be talking about that in two weeks.
It's the same thing.
It happens after cycle, after cycle, after cycle, after cycle.
And those media cycles are two to four weeks.
So, you know, whether that discussion ends up being true or not on when it happens, I
think they need to do it sooner than later.
And that's because I do believe we are going to start seeing a huge focus on the business
cycle.
And that is going to be in more risk on businesses. It is not at all shocking. I think
everybody here knows that even though the SPX is hitting all-time highs this year today,
the NASDAQ is performing really well. It's really a consolidation of a few companies that are
driving most of the value in these industries. And so I think you're going to see some plays
here over the next really three to nine months of where there is a more of a focus on the smaller to medium cap
projects of the Russell 2000, I would say, with this business cycle to see a lower interest rates
from the Federal Reserve, like you already mentioned, Wabi, perfectly said it, we're
expecting that any day now to see what Fed chair is going to be replaced, whether that means it's
going to be someone that's not only pro Bitcoin, but, you know, looking to go down Donald Trump's path of 1% interest rates and really start to lower those massively here as soon as June.
That would be priced in.
You know, politics aside on Venezuela, it immediately happened.
Like if we're actually going to control a lot of that oil supply, that's going to impact a lot of the supply chain mechanics in probably 12 to 24 months.
There's a lot of infrastructure that's got to be built, but markets price things in way prior, not instantly.
So that could start playing a huge factor into gas prices coming down, which have huge supply chain effects,
which could lower the cost of groceries, et cetera, which is, again, what the administration would want if we're moving into midterms and they're struggling to get reelected.
So for me, just looking for it, I'll kind of wrap up here, is you have the Clarity Act.
That's going to be incredibly bullish for just institutions that are sidelined right now.
They don't know necessarily the full regulation from the CFTC on digital commodities,
which, again, right now is regulated primarily by the CFTC.
But the Clarity Act is going to not only address that, it's going to allow these companies
to have not only clarity to participate in the economy, but also be permitted to access
the payment stablecoins market, which to me is probably the biggest market in 2026 as
you have all these institutions tokenizing.
Everything that's going to be tokenized is essentially going to as you have all these institutions tokenizing. Everything that's going
to be tokenized is essentially going to be backed by all these stable coins, which again, artificially
prop up the value of the dollar. It's theorized to, it's supposed to be backed one-to-one,
so to speak, but that can bring in a decent amount of investment contracts, et cetera,
now that they have proper regulations. So with the Clarity Act, your banking regulations,
your business cycle theory, your institutional
supply chain dynamics and crypto, fiscal stimulus.
Like when I'm looking at this market and you're seeing inflation coming down, unemployment
struggling, the only way forward for the feds is to continue to cut.
We're looking at a really strong rotation.
So for everybody that's listening here, we're going, okay, this is a lot of great information.
What does that look like on a timeline?
I believe that risk on assets on the farther end of the risk curve will probably start performing more towards maybe three to six months from now, maybe mid-2026.
But like you're already starting to see, I think you're going to start seeing risk on assets that are on the near term of the curve are going to start performing a little bit better now as it starts to be priced in.
That's kind of my overall thoughts on the market.
And also, I do want to mention that usually during a second term of a president, their midterm years are actually quite bullish on markets.
Their first midterm year isn't really as bullish but if you look at obama for example right
2010 was filled with a lot of the like these huge flash crashes but then you look at uh you look at
2012 and it was insane and no wait my bad that was 2014 excuse me wow yeah 2014 it was basically up only and uh that's i think i see that janet yellen got in
um same thing with bush i think 2000 we all know what happened in 2001 markets were absolute trash
um and then when you look at uh the following midterm year i think that was 2005
it's basically up only everyone was a realtor And I mean, I'm sure everyone here has seen the big short. So at least lately, a president's second midterm does tend to be quite bullish for markets.
psyopped maybe we take out 80k one more time or whatever i don't i don't really care if it does
but there is a possibility where perhaps like we put out a massive fake out low and people are
waiting for a bit lower and the market just absolutely sends sends without them and as far
as what you said about besant um i remember last month he said to said to basically taper expectations for the next few months. And he gave that usual
three to six month time horizon. And I mean, the last time he said that was back in like
late February. I think it was like a little bit over a month before markets bottomed out.
And he's like, give it about six months and then you'll see the first signs of a Trump economy.
And you fast forward to late August.
I mean, dude, everything was at all time highs.
Everything was trading at all time highs.
So I do think there's a strong possibility that we see something similar.
I do think there is a huge possibility that we see something similar. do think there is a huge possibility that we see
um something similar i really really do man um dude what are your expectations for this year
man like do you think uh do you think the iwm goes to like 300 men or do you think that like
index is just perpetually fucked yeah i mean i i guess that's like the question. What I would say is it's definitely going to be better than the last few years. Just back to all the liquidity points that I was bringing up. It's like if it sucks that markets are so tied to politics nowadays, but that's just where we're at in our current social environment is, you know, a lot of these markets are impacted by strong narratives and strong moves. And so for
me, like, what's the biggest narrative of 2026, if they want to really handle these midterms
properly, it's going to be focusing on that cost affordability crisis. That is the number one
approach that people are tired of the wars, they're tired of, you know, lists, they're tired
of x, y, and z. You know, to me, I think the IWN is going to land a lot higher. I don't know what
that point is, you know, people are like asking me now, like, you is going to land a lot higher. I don't know what that point is. People are asking
me now, you're going to start getting the price predictions back. What's your price prediction on
Bitcoin or certain stocks that start happening moving forward? For me, I think Bitcoin is just
going to be a lot higher than it is today. I just think if you're not trying to participate in this
economy as we rotate over into a more liquid environment that is more favorable to risk on assets in a low
interest rate market, I just think you're going to miss out on a lot of opportunity. And now we're
at the point where AI, like people don't want to hear this, but the truth is like in these markets,
if you want to participate effectively, you can't just walk away like it's 1970s and come back in
20 years with your ETF and be like, man, I'm at a great point today.
Because look at what just NVIDIA announced today with their new chip.
They already replaced their freaking Blackwell chip with a 5x times stronger chip for AI production today.
They are looking to expand massively into the energy markets.
He was talking about Bitcoin today, which I talk about.
I've talked about this for so long. I've toured facilities for so long. I talked to Ron
DeSantis, the governor of Florida, about this when he was running for president at his blockchain
dinner. They're looking to expand massively the energy markets. And the one thing you need,
yeah, you can convert a lot of that energy. And what's going to happen is a lot of these Bitcoin
mining companies, they're not going
to be mining.
Bitcoin's not going to be the number one business model.
They're going to use Bitcoin mining to scale their artificial intelligence models because
these data centers that they can set up, they're going to start accessing negative energy markets.
They're going to be able to capture anywhere in the world through Bitcoin modulars and
Starlink or whatever internet connection is.
And they can capture real energy and transfer
that into a true currency that can be used to establish more artificial intelligence.
So essentially, we'll be at a point where intelligence is ramping up so fast,
you have market shifts happening on weekly basis, monthly basis, rather than year to two year
timeframes. The moment they broke Moore's Law, which is effectively where tech,
for anybody listening in, every two years, tech gets twice as good and half the cost. It advances
and doubles and doubles and doubles. But they broke that, which tells us if you're not expecting
huge investments and a mass amount of liquidity moving into your energy market, your tokenization
sector, I don't know what you believe in, but AI
is not slowing down. Artificial intelligence isn't going to go away. And the only thing that pairs
with AI is blockchain, because in two to three years, you're not going to be able to verify if
something's real or not when you're looking on your social media thread or on your reels. This
is why live audience production is not only seeing a huge demand, but people are feeling like social
media is just way too saturated. Like that's just social media. Imagine a national security concern
when you're in your midterm or you're in your election cycle in 2028 and your competitor is
just putting AI prompts that look seriously legitimate, which you can already convince,
like probably people that aren't so socially savvy that it might be, you know, not too tech savvy above 60 plus years old.
Dude, if you show them half these clips on social media, they will think it's real.
They see Donald Trump eat a kid's foot.
They will think it's real.
So we're also at a point where these companies have to embed and tokenize and utilize blockchain if they want to be able to tell and identify something from it being real or not.
blockchain if they want to be able to tell and identify something from it being real or not.
And so that's why, like, I guess, you know, to solve that, Wabi, because I know I kind of ranted
there on that spiel, but is, you know, for this business sector, I think if you're looking at
anything from, you know, that mid-risk curve, it's the energy sector, it's the tokenization sector,
I can list out probably about another eight sectors that are like prediction markets that
I think are going to continue in the midterms as well.
I think they're going to do really, really well this year.
Yeah, that's real, man.
These AI crap are insane.
But speaking of walking away and doing nothing, Sully, what's going on, man?
What's going on, man?
Tell us how Chud Jacks are about to be blown out of the water.
Well, I mean, Chud Jacks are probably not having a great time after last weekend, right?
With Venezuela and the whole situation.
I love the Chud Jack meme, man.
I'm so confused why hasn't there been a Chud Jack meme that's sent to billions, man.
Man, I think that...
It's used so much.
Wabi, I think that 2026 and probably like 2027 i could be early to this but i think we're like almost at the point where everything is gonna
happen everything's gonna happen within a pretty short like window of time you know there's that
whole like i hate the saying but you know it's like the uh there are days or what what is what
is the saying wabi it's it's like there are years where decades there happened something like that
yeah and days where months happen yeah yeah something like that uh except to a much larger
degree i just think that you have like a bunch of things probably converging on a higher time frame
for a like two three four year window that we will have to
reckon with at some point. But I wouldn't say that it's super actionable for giving
directionality on the markets just yet. So yeah, I don't know. I'm happy to be here though,
Wabi. How are you doing, man? I'm surprised that you're here, man. I'm surprised. How was your New Year's?
I'm glad that you're here, man.
I guess we can start off with how does Solana look to you, man?
I know you're one of the individuals at State.
If you want to know how the state of the market is going to be,
Sol is still going to be your signal.
Yeah, I had a good New Year's, though.
I just spent it with family family I think I fell asleep at
like 9 30 so I didn't exactly make it to midnight nor did I have a reason to stay up I don't know
if you guys can relate but like whenever I um whatever I have whenever I don't go out on New
Year's I'm gonna just crash way way way before New Year's Eve actually happens. But yeah, just kind of talking about the market with Solana.
I mean, I kind of just go back to something like Sol ETH.
I mean, for one, Sol USD has given us a really nice impulsive move.
Obviously, we haven't quite broken in the highs at like 144 for me to get more like bullish leaning on Solana.
for me to get more bullish leaning on Solana.
But I will say I think my view on Sol itself is actually going to come back to the Sol-Eth pair
and kind of what that's going to be doing going forward.
I mean, I'm looking at that and basically at that .04 level, we're trying to carve out a double bottom.
It's not quite confirmed yet, but I think if we do, you know, if we can get a pump from this level on that pair, then I think, you know,
we could be looking at, I won't call it like soul season necessarily, but, you know, I would imagine
if soul ETH starts to move up again on chain, probably won't be super far away. But I think
if soul ETH breaks down, even if the market goes higher which for the record like soul eath breaking
down i don't think would even necessarily be bearish on usd i think it would just be
uh you know eath is outperforming it and what did we see over the summer well we saw soul eath get
annihilated but we saw et usd basically go up 200 in just a few months. So, uh, I don't know. I'm kind of watching like the sole eat pair to see what soul is going to do. But, uh, soul did kind of telegraph the strength
in the market, I think before some other assets, I mean, we saw at least on finance, like right
before the turn of the new year, I know most assets waited until like January 1st or January
2nd to pump, but soul kind of had like these really fat wicks to the upside
before the turn of the new year. So yeah, I mean, I still do think it communicates signal to a broad
degree. I feel like crypto in general looks, you know, I think it needs more elbow grease for sure.
But at the end of the day, like it's just very difficult to be bearish on the coins when you
have equity markets looking the way that they do.
And I think for me, like, that's really what's guiding my view on the market right now is, all right, how do stocks look?
Because we've really like the consensus around the relationship between crypto and equities for the last few months was that, all right, well, this move on equities is probably nearing completion because
crypto pulled back, Bitcoin specifically pulled back 35%. And usually that tells us that equities
are about to pull back too. But what I've kind of been arguing here for maybe the last few weeks
could be a possibility. And I think we're seeing it now more so that the year has turned, that we're
seeing more of a risk on bid for all markets is,
OK, well, we had the liquidity drop off towards the end of Q3 and an early Q4. That was very real,
right? Like, we can see this visualized through volatility. We can see it visualized through
crypto. These liquidity sensitive sectors, even small caps and equities, some of them took a
pretty big hit during that period. The government reopened. Liquidity has been, even small caps and equities, some of them took a pretty big hit during that period.
The government reopened.
Liquidity has been coming back into the markets.
Now you have financials potentially threatening melt ups.
And it's just like, OK, well, maybe that was instead of viewing it from the standpoint of like, all right, well, equities are just lagging a sell off that crypto is already put in.
are just lagging a sell-off that crypto has already put in, maybe the manipulation was
actually crypto moving down during an equities melt-up simply because liquidity pulled back a
little bit. And it's now, you know, they've seemingly found the answer to that question
as far as the liquidity recession. But yeah, I mean, I think that you just have to treat this
market like, all right, who's leading? Well, right now it's
equity markets. And the question I kind of posed throughout November and December, I felt like
there was a knife that could be twisted throughout all markets. I feel a lot less confident in that
now, Wabi, when I look at specifically like market volatility has been in a downtrend since basically the government reopened.
We had two attempts to spike the VIX. Both were sold off. I mean, it looks to me like we're
breaking down from a trend on volatility that we've been in really since right before the
yen carry blow up. I don't know. I'm kind of thinking that we have a bit of a shift in the
way that this market has been or really kind of like the underlying driver of the markets here.
So, yeah, I think if equities continue this breakout, everybody's going to be looking to short the S&P at like 7,200, 7,500.
They're going to be looking to short a shoulder on crypto kind of in congruence with that.
And I just think that they they're probably they're probably gonna
get destroyed if equities are really breaking out here because yeah i mean i've kind of been like
floating this idea in these spaces for probably like over a year now wabi but like the melt up
right david hunter mode finance i remember having this conversation with joe uh over the summer
about the possibilities that i thought financial stocks could potentially double in the course of like 12 to 18 months.
And it's amazing how time and markets can kind of pass by really quickly, but also kind of like compressed to where you forget about having some of these conversations.
And then you look back up and something that you were talking about a few months ago is actively playing out like these bank stocks when we were first talking about them i want to say
uh you know some of them were like 30 to 40 percent lower than they are right now
so we are seeing financials i think give you that what you would want to see from a melt up
so i i do think that you know if we see this continued pump and rally on the on the equity markets, then the downside that we saw in crypto for the last few weeks, last few months was probably a psyop.
And that you are going to have that like everything happening all at once in 2026.
But I think that initially those catalysts would likely be very positive.
Tommy, do you play Fortnite?
No, I played Fortnite a little bit, like my sophomore year of college.
That was way back when.
I mean, that was before all the building got crazy.
Back when it was just a shooter game.
So everything you just said, is there anyone up here that can explain
what he just said in Fortnite terms?
Prometheus.
Bro, I don't play Fortnite.
I've been trying to get into Battlefield lately.
I've got a few friends that are playing that.
But I don't play Fortnite.
Evan, have you played Fortnite?
No, not really, man. A little bit so everyone up here is an unk great i was playing call of duty the new black ops the other day
not bad not bad
i do want to bring up something that i was reading earlier today that I thought was pretty
interesting. I don't know if anybody else on the panel has any thoughts on it. But
it was basically talking about how Venezuela actually did have some form of impact on the
Bitcoin price for the last few months. And it's not a coincidence that we pumped right after
Maduro was seized. Basically, just like the crux of it, and I can send you the
article, but it was basically talking about how through these American ETFs, through Bitcoin
treasury companies, through stable coins, we've kind of more or less like dollarized Bitcoin.
We've made it a USA strategic asset because although, you know, a lot of citizens
in the country of like America, we'll say, for example, like they might not park their savings
in Bitcoin as an inflation hedge because the dollar has been really strong. You still have
these other countries, you know, where that's not the case, right? Like Turkey, Russia, Venezuela,
the case, right? Like Turkey, Russia, Venezuela, where these wealthy elites will park their capital.
And because of that, because we effectively knew that their wealthy elites have kind of
been front running like this huge drop off in GDP through Bitcoin, the United States was kind
of suppressing the price of Bitcoin over the last few months and saying, yeah, you won't be able to use Bitcoin to try and grow your economy out of this.
And now that Maduro's been seized, price immediately went up.
I thought it was an interesting take.
It's not really like, obviously, I like to believe these tinfoil hat theories.
I'm not going to die on the hill that that's actually what happened.
But it could be an interesting theory, I think, on the Bitcoin price action over the last few months. So I would just say, yeah, I thought
that was pretty interesting. And kind of like a empirical example, we've already seen this play
out throughout the cycle, right? I mean, I'm sure you guys remember in 2023, a lot of Russian
business elites did put their money into Bitcoin. I want to say that was around the
time of SBB. And to a further degree, we also had a lot of capital flee the Chinese real estate
market. And I know like a lot of people attribute the pump that we had from October 2023 to the ETF
announcement. But a lot of that capital that came into the space was from people exiting the
Chinese real estate market as well. So I think there is some precedence for something like this,
but especially now that you have kind of all of these entities with American interests that have
effectively dollarized Bitcoin at this point, I it's uh it's it's a really interesting conversation to have
we need that to happen again man um they got to be buying Hyperland and Solana that's what they need to be doing man um so basically Sully you're saying uh 300k BTC and then 50 K BTC all within like six months and then back to new all-time
Not that fast everything not that fast
Not that fast, but probably something crazy like that, man
I think the most like the single largest
Cause for optimism in all markets that I can see right now
I know I said equities but like I'm gonna point to the USD JPY chart here
Which could be
breaking out from like a 40-year range and if it breaks up right uh if it breaks up i mean usd jpy
moving higher has been pretty much directly correlated with market upside since the bear
market bottom in 2022 so um you know if we're talking about something that is happening for
the first time in like 40 years i have to imagine that we have like
if if we get people into a a point next year where we have effectively formed a consensus
that the four-year cycle is invalidated the only proper response to that would be to then
send bitcoin to a a larger drawdown than any cycle ever. Like, wouldn't that just be the most Bitcoin thing ever?
Make everybody think this is a new paradigm. This time is different. And it's not. It's actually
going to be way, way worse than you could imagine from a drawdown standpoint. But not that I think
that would be like the end of crypto or anything. I'm not I'm not one of those people. I actually
was speculating this a few days ago. I don't want to get too deep into this, but I think we're close, probably like a few years away. I'm going to give it like within five or six years from like a perma decoupling between crypto and equities as an asset class, at least like stock indexes.
I think we would need like
five 3AC firms
for that to happen
can you imagine dude
I don't really like saying that word
can you imagine but
Trump selling oil and then with those
proceeds he just gives that
money to a few young guys
and they replicate 3AC
and there's like ten of those firms and they just
buy coins wouldn't that be something man what world liberty fi was supposed to be what world
liberty fi was supposed to be man uh evan what's up bro you have your hand up i'll pass it on what's
going on man always great to speak you know a lot of good points before um i'll talk about a little
bit of technicals i think that's the one thing that we haven't really touched on too too much yet in this discussion
you know i think the big point that we really really really you know super super freaking
important because it almost looks like we're in a damn simulation when you look at this daily 200
sma you know that's currently sitting at right around 106K.
You know, if you kind of map this out, that will, you know, generally keep going upward.
You know, it's hard to say.
Maybe we'll be at 102K tomorrow.
But if you generally think January is going to continue to be a green month, you'll probably hit that point at around 102K.
That would be, you know, probably the minimum I could see us hitting, you know, probably 102K, a little bit above 100.
And then I think that's major,
major, major decision time, because, you know, why is the main thing this is relevant is because in the previous two bear markets, 2022 and 2018, we hit this point. So in 2022, we hit this point
at the end of March, a little bit earlier. So that's kind of how the cycle is, you know,
you keep peaking out a little bit earlier. And earlier and you know it would kind of be illustrative of diminished returns you actually
bottom out earlier each time too you hit that point exactly at the end of march of 2022 it was
that 48k back then and then you rejected from it and now what's even crazier is that same exact
thing happened if i could find it here back in yeah 2018 end of july of 2018 you hit that point exactly well oh or well okay he
came very close to that point i should say he came very close that point twice may of 2018
and july of 2018 he didn't hit it exactly but it was around 8k and 9k respectively those two times
and you know essentially i think you really need to
break above that point if you're going to go into a super cycle here. And a lot of stuff,
you know, a lot of coins in general are also, you know, creeping up to that kind of level.
You know, for Ethereum, that's going to be at right now around 3,600. You'll probably hit it
when it's at like 35. You know, I think that the important thing
to realize here, and, you know, I think a lot of people have PTSD from all coins and, you know,
for good reason, myself included to a certain extent, but Ethereum, you know, based on monetary
policy and of QT, most likely a lot of your good alts, you know, your ones that bigger market cap,
good fundamental ones can outperform Bitcoin for the next few years, probably, You know, you're ones that bigger market cap, good fundamental ones can outperform Bitcoin
for the next few years, probably, you know, potentially into the end of this decade.
That's an important point to kind of realize here. Now, keep that in mind, though, you know,
Ethereum or if you look at the chart, others versus Bitcoin, others, everything outside top
10 versus Bitcoin, it bottomed out at the end of July of 2019, right when they did QT back then.
But you still went into kind of a bear market for like six to eight months after that. You went
through pandemic, you went through all sorts of stuff, and alts outperformed Bitcoin collectively.
But, you know, I mean, you still went through your pandemic where a lot of alts made lower lows
than their 2018 lows. So just keep that in mind. that doesn't mean to just go crazy at alts
right now but what i would say is that you got a good shot of you know using this assuming ethereum
could survive you know and it's not a relic ethereum is kind of your blue ship right now
for the best bang for your buck in my opinion however i would argue that ethereum likely you
know if history repeats if if you do get you you know, your pullback, I think you will,
likely will bottom between somewhere between like $1,700, $1,800 to $2,000 by October of this year,
that kind of area. If we look at traditional markets a little bit, I know there's some talk
about NASDAQs lagging behind a little bit on the S&P 500. All of that looks really overheated, in my opinion. AI, NVIDIA, Palantir, all of that
is really begging for a correction right now, I think. And I think that you just zoom out,
you look at the macro, nothing goes up forever. You look at the S&P 500, a huge FIB level,
just a little bit higher than where we are right now, around 696 or 6,996, that area essentially could be a big
drop downward. Now, you also have, what's your elephant in the room right now that we do talk
about, but because of people who have beef with crypto people that are pro metals, like Peter
Schiff, we have to have beef with the metals people.
But silver, $80, $81, just insane.
Like, I think, Wabi, you mentioned that earlier.
But, I mean, Powell, you got your FOMC meeting at the end of this month.
I don't think Powell, in his right mind, is going to just, you know,
say things that will allow this to keep going.
I think he's going to want kind of a pullback.
I think he's going to mention inflation. If you're Powell, you don't want silver to be going parabolic. That's not a good sign here.
So I think you come into that FOMC meeting and that may be what pulls us back, especially since
it's likely, very likely going to be a pause. When did you see a pause last time? It was January of
last year, January of 2025, and everything went into a decent kind of
correction here.
Keep in mind, the Venezuela stuff, that's essentially a lot of that's already kind of
factored in price.
A lot of this good stuff's already factored in price.
What I will say here for metals, I think you will come down, you know, 20, 30% for gold
and silver.
You'll probably see a couple boring years.
And then when we finally get a recession, probably somewhere between 2028, 2032, probably in the last, you know, probably 2030, if I had to guess,
then you'll see metals kind of, you know, do a nice run up and probably, you know, peak out
mid 2030, something of that nature. You know, at least against the S&P 500, I would say,
I think for the next few years, metals will be kind of saw it kind of, you know, sideways
against the S&P 500 so keep that in
mind um i think the most important thing to reiterate here is like bitcoin needs to break
above like 102 108k and then um you know what i would do if it does get up to like 115 those areas
you know collectively breaking above there i'll get back in on a run up to hopefully 150 or 200k
by the end of this year but i just don't think that's very likely.
I do think if that happens, then you're going to see a rough 2027.
It's going to be very weird.
So I don't know.
And I think, you know, you got the Democrats who just had a pretty big loss with, you know,
if you look at it politically, big loss with Tim Walls and all the, you know, the fraud
and all that, him having to resign.
I would imagine they're going to have, you know, a couple of tricks up their sleeve to try to get these markets to go down,
hurt Trump in midterm elections, get more Democratic power, because that's generally what kind of happens.
You know, maybe I could be wrong, but I'm sure, you know, Trump's been on a roll here.
So I'm sure something's going to come up.
Maybe it could have something to do with the Epstein files.
Could be more stuff involving him there.
We'll see what happens.
But that's my two cents right now.
Prometheus, what's going on, bro?
I'll pass it on over to you now.
Yo, what's going on, guys?
Yeah, man.
Freaking chilling watching this super schizophrenic price action intraday on BTC.
Kind of crazy.
I have been pretty interested in the discussions in regards to how Bitcoin plays a role in
the whole Venezuela discussion that we're having
right now. And intraday price action for Bitcoin, I kind of marked it out for the discord. I posted
on my channel as well. But you know, if you start breaking back down below like 91.5, it is not a
good look. We had a fantastic reaction from those highs or from our seven-week
value area highs. Love to see that. So hopefully this was just a retest of value. And now we're
going to kind of be seeing some continuation to the upside. I was in some Solana and XRP longs
going into the end of the weekend. I exited those, obviously, to reduce exposure. Not sure
how the markets would have digested the whole Venezuela news. Seemingly bullish, jumped back
into some longs. Yesterday morning for, what was that? It would be Solana, or not Solana. I jumped
into ETH, Bitcoin, Hyperliquid, and then I also bought some KEDA. I bought back some KEDA just
because the chart looks good. Now, we're a little bit diddling in the middle here from
a chart perspective in regards. I shouldn't say diddling in the middle. I should say
the market hasn't yet necessarily digested the fact that we're breaking out of the range. And
what I mean by that is we'll see if we can get follow through here. We'll see if we can get some actual, you know,
hopefully bullish price action throughout the rest of this week. Hopefully this was kind of
the typical Tuesday. Um, Prometheus, not interrupt. So what you're trying to say is
the skis are being loaded. Yeah yeah i think the skis could definitely potentially
being loaded bro i'm i i like what i'm seeing i mean high time frame and more so it's like
from localized price action perspective for me i still think high time frame we're pretty cooked
uh i think it was josh josh that mentioned bitcoin dominance it'd be very interesting to see like what if bitcoin goes
like only to 100k and you do see actual large-scale alt outperformance i think that would catch a lot
of people off guard i think that a tremendous amount of people would not be ready for a move like that.
You know, what if we see like ETH go to like, you know,
low to mid four thousands and Bitcoin only goes to like a hundred K.
I mean, that would catch so many people off guard.
It's not necessarily my base case right now.
I think the price action and what I've been calling is that short complacency was pretty obvious, especially going into the last couple of weeks
and I expected for shorts to kind of get rinsed. And so the question is right now, is this just
kind of like a short covering rally and like a short squeeze? Or are we going to be seeing some actual, you know, spot, spot buying within
this market. And it's been something that we haven't seen for pretty substantial, you know,
amount of time, right. We have not seen a real appetite for, you know, for, for the majority
of altcoins for quite some period. I think really the last time you could probably say
that there was that was at the end of last year,
probably around the AI trade
when people were kind of all over the place
in regards to on-chain.
People were on base, people were on Solana.
There was multiple billion you know, billion dollar runners.
And we'll see if we get something like that.
It's hard to imagine right now that we have the amount of liquidity in the system to sustain a large, widespread rally.
But at the same time, you could also argue the same fact that because liquidity is thinner, that does mean that you're going to have hopefully
more concentrated rallies within fewer names. We'll see if the market and the participants can
actually get behind a more condensed ticker list, we'll call it. I think the dispersion has been
very, very real, but the reflexivity has been very, very real, at least this week
with people not expecting the move that we saw to the upside. My line in the sand as a bull
is 91.5. And that's exactly where we bounced from today. If we start closing below that on bitcoin like i'm just gonna i'm just gonna exit my longs and
um you're gonna get the woodshed i'm not getting anything ready except for my short exposure like
that's the only thing i'll be looking to get ready truthfully that's the woodshed bro prometheus is
woodshed hey that should be uh that should be uh like a video series, bro. Prometheus is...
Should we do an animated series and it's just like a woodshed horror film?
Like Jack Nicklaus, but like an animated ghoul?
Something like that, bro.
Like first you have to have people getting too far ahead of their skis, right?
And then they land on the woodshed right and
then there you are with like an axe yeah we could have it be like a ski resort um you know half pipe
tony hawk 900 horror film you know what i'm saying
something like that man something like that um maybe. Something like that.
Maybe that can be a part of the Because animated season. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
We've got to keep the ideas close to the chest, bro.
We've got to keep it close to the chest.
We're maxing out on bench.
It doesn't count unless you touch your chest, right?
We've got to keep that one close, bro.
I did deadlifts yesterday, by the way.
And usually I'm not a big deadlift guy. Um, I'm a tall lanky guy. So it takes a, you know,
a lot of range of motion for me and deadlift, um, to get maximum activation in regards to the lower
half, uh, bro. And I am, I'm wrecked, absolutely wrecked from yesterday. So feels good though.
I'm wrecked, absolutely wrecked from yesterday. So feels good though. Feels good to be getting
some deadlifts in. Usually I'm more of a, uh, kind of like isometric kind of lifter,
more aesthetic focus, less, less, uh, heavyweight focused, but did some heavyweight yesterday,
bro. It felt good. Felt super, super good. Um, besides that, bro, for markets i i love right now and i've been thinking about it and i'm
like what if the united states oil stocks are gonna be like one of the next bull markets
right like truly like truly one of the next bull markets because United States oil companies have been so reliant
and I shouldn't say so reliant, but they've been kind of, they've had like kind of a noose around
their neck because of obviously Russia, the whole Brinks, you know, all the Brinks nations.
And now that Venezuela kind of opens up the door for potentially
some of the United States oil companies, I think you could see a really, really, really big, you
know, oil bull market, interestingly enough. And now that we're going to potentially be seeing
the ISM go above 50, which is something people are talking about which we haven't seen in significant years
um and i look at the copper chart and it makes me think like dude the copper chart
is probably going to be going ballistic here over the next two years i would imagine
um yeah crypto is just like more like i should say for me from like a 12 month time horizon, crypto is a little bit more iffy.
Like equities look fucking amazing.
Excuse my French, but everything else looks amazing.
And then crypto is like high time frame structure looks really abysmal.
Actually, we had a fantastic talk on the YouTube live stream the other day.
And I kind of mentioned my high timeframe thesis,
and we compared this cycle versus last cycle from a trend perspective, and you're very much still
like significantly underneath your 365 day rolling view op at 100k. That's significant, right?
And if you kind of just look at that from a contextual standpoint, a lot of asset allocation devices, algorithms, metrics, portfolio managers, whatever you want to call them, they understand that based off of that skew, right, that their allocation should actually be not skewed as heavily towards crypto.
Their portfolio shouldn't be as skewed heavily towards crypto.
But if you can get above that 365-day rolling VWAP, around 100K, there's a lot of other metrics and TA confluences around that area.
If you can get above that region, you can start to talk about things looking good.
I think until then, I'm remaining pretty cautious on the high timeframe for crypto, but equities, I think,
could show or have like a fantastic, you know, fantastic bull market for a significant period
of time. As long as the, you know, I see Matt here, as long as the job market doesn't,
doesn't, you know, collapse things for reason XY, Y, Z, which I'm not really going to speculate
on because I don't really have a crystal ball, but, um, if you can stabilize jobs, uh, if you
can bring manufacturing, you know, the ISM backup, which we'll see if they can do that. Um, you know,
there's talks about midterms here previously in this space, there are opportunities both to the
short and the long side within this market. Interestingly enough, like I don't think that this is a market where you really, you know,
just go max long and kind of turn your brain off. And I don't think this is really a market where
you go like max short and turn your brain off. I think you got to be pretty, pretty decisive with
your picks. You have to be very sharp and focused too. If you lose that focus focus i think it's pretty easy to lose your edge within this market
um besides that what else what else what else lovely i mean it's a lovely tuesday man
really is a lovely tuesday i'll let uh some of the other speakers talk thanks for having me up guys
matt what's up bro hey what's going on, guys? Hey, Pometheus. Yeah, I agree.
My worry, though, is my hesitation.
As you know, I've been bearish all winter.
I was buying puts on ETH and crypto in late November,
and then I started buying puts on more or less the stock market in
MAG7 and things in December. And I'm worried that people are staring too much at the S&P 500
and gold and silver. And they're saying Bitcoin oh has decoupled from the market oh
the mag 7 has decoupled from the market oh you can't trust what Tesla and meta and NVIDIA and
I'm naming a whole bunch of mag 7 multi-trillion dollar companies that are trading back at October and November prices.
That's my fear.
That's my warning.
The S&P 500 and gold and silver, they sell off last, not first.
People sell the risky stuff first.
As we all know, crypto has had a hard year in 2025.
Crypto sold off first.
And then Bitcoin lost its six digits.
And then you saw, you name it,
from NVIDIA to Apple to Google to Microsoft.
I mean, look at Meta, Tesla.
I can go on and on and on.
These companies haven't made a new all-time high
since fall 2025, some of them early December.
So big money has been taking profit out of everything.
Everything.
And yes, this has been a nice little bounce for Bitcoin, okay, from the low 80s to the low 90s.
But I mean, we all know where we came from.
I mean, we all know where we came from. We came from 120. So, you know, I'm not, I'm not getting
We came from 120.
all, you know, I'm not jumping out of the gym, falling over 30% to bounce 10. I know you guys
aren't, uh, uh, satisfied with that either. So like, what's next? I think big money has been
staring at this week for over a month. They want to know, and I want to know,
and Prometheus, I know he wants to know,
is the jobs market one month later that much worse?
Did we lose jobs over this holiday season,
over the fall and winter?
What's ADP going to say tomorrow?
What's the Bureau of Labor Statistics going to say Friday?
And I think we're now down to the last 48 hours.
And it's really as simple as that.
It really is.
You know, we watched.
It wasn't a problem until it was.
We watched unemployment start from below 4% to all the way up to 4.6.
And everyone can do the math now that like, wait, so every month,
if we go up another 0.1% every single month, like clockwork, and last month we're up to 4.6%,
and now we're up, now we could be up to 4.7%, we're going to be over 5% in early spring.
And now, and now we're flirting with like the R word, recession. So I think that's what
big money's doing. I think that's literally why they're only bidding the safest of the safe stuff.
Like S&P 500, yes, it put in an all-time high today, technically. But the names that you know haven't been participating for a month or two.
Again, the MAG-7, they're not the ones participating. And then if you really want
to have your radar, if you really want to have some suspicion, then look at the NASDAQ.
You can look at the NASDAQ composite or the NDX, which is the top 100 of the NASDAQ. You can look at the NASDAQ composite or the NDX,
which is the top 100 of the NASDAQ. That's trading back at November prices, late October,
early November prices. The NASDAQ didn't put in an all-time high, hasn't since 2025.
Who's wrong? Did Bitcoin decouple from the economy? wrong it did did bitcoin decouple from the economy
did the mag 7 decouple from the economy did the nasdaq which is not not the best 500 companies
but you know all the companies did the nasdaq decouple from the economy is the unemployment
rate labor market is that lying to us or us? Or are we just literally watching the last three
safest assets, which is gold, silver, and the S&P 500? Are we literally just watching the last
three haven't sold yet? And I think we'll find out this week. Wednesday will give us a sneak peek,
and then Friday will confirm it.
And like it is going to move the market one way or the other.
You know, and at this at this at this rate, it's a coin flip.
I'm not I'm not doing anything crazy.
I've already made my bets.
You know, you never sell your Bitcoin.
You never sell your Bitcoin.
But I sure did sell everything riskier than Bitcoin and have some nice puts in place.
So we're going to find out.
We will see.
Sylvester, I see you have your hand up.
Go ahead.
I love that I've got a different name every time.
No, I agree with that point, Matt.
I mean, it's pretty clear that big tech at least is kind of lagging what's pushing the
index right now.
I'd point specifically to
like a Tesla, right, which probably looks just like absolutely terrible at a technical and a
fundamental basis at this point. What I will say, though, I think the things that are pushing the
index higher, like we've seen a divergence, a pretty clear one. I think it started in like
very early December, around the time where the
government reopened. It's increasing the more that we see these rate cuts. We've really seen
financials accelerate higher. I'm going to point to two in particular. Goldman Sachs and Morgan
Stanley have both. I feel like both of those assets broke out of the consolidation that the S&P is making
right now, but they broke out of it maybe in early December. JP Morgan's threatening the same move
right now. We're seeing the Dow Jones up 1% today, which is outpacing the S&P 500. I think a lot of
that can be attributed to the idea that we're getting rate cuts and there's this narrative that the economy is potentially re-accelerating which you know we'll be able to pick that thesis apart based
on on data that comes in but banks are i think trading in a way where they think that uh the
economy is probably re-accelerating or at the very least liquidity is re-accelerating back into the
market and i don't know if that's going to
eventually find its way back into big tech i'm sure it will find its way into some of the big tech names at an individual level not all of them right like i don't think tesla looks good i
would not bid it versus i mean it's much easier for me to bid something like nvidia up here even
though it's like obviously very very highly valued than it is for me to buy something like Tesla.
But I do think what we're seeing push the indices higher has really seen a big divergence over the last few weeks, which is financials. It is these industrials. Even pharma companies a few weeks ago,
I feel like, started ripping as well. So I think that's probably the narrative to watch.
I think if the S&P is about to follow some of these big bank stocks higher with these moves, then yeah.
I mean, I think it's going to – I mean, it's hard for me to imagine that the indexes are going to go down.
I actually think they would be moving aggressively higher if banks are melting up.
Well, see, now this is where it gets tricky.
I could make both the bull case and the bear case for why banks are doing what they do.
Real quick, the flip side, the bear case could be the Fed just finished their three promised
rate hikes three in a row, the 25 basis points with the last one here in
December. January, February, March, and on, you have, what, 18% chance of any further rate cuts?
Excuse me, did I say rate hikes? I meant rate cuts. But we're not projecting any more rate cuts until late spring, early summer at the earliest when J-PAL gets replaced.
But why would that be bullish banks?
Well, who sits on the most bonds?
Banks sit on the most bonds.
And if you're telling them that your bonds are possibly going to become more valuable because we're not going to cut rates anymore,
then all those banks get an instant re-rating.
Like, oh, okay, then all of their assets, which a lot of it is bonds, are worth more money
because the Fed is telling you, we're going to keep the value as is.
We're not going to lower the Fed rate, and we're not going to devalue your bonds for the short term.
So that could explain why Citi and Goldman and JPMorgan, like you said, are getting some love.
But then on the flip side, you could argue that like, yeah, but maybe the
economies are accelerating and we might have a whole bunch of IPOs this year and big banks
benefit from IPOs. So like, I could see both sides of it. It's really tricky. It's a mixed bag there.
Big banks are so murky.
Banks are interesting because if you see the Kre um that was the one that really crashed the
regional bank etf and that's up like 70 something percent since um where was it 2023 remember when
silicon valley went down so it would be kind of interesting i mean i'm trying to think like
yeah if you're going into a place of like rate pauses, the last time, if you look at that chart,
it came down throughout the beginning of 2025 until April 2025. Then it kind of came back. So if you're looking at that area, regional banks probably would go down. I would assume,
I mean, if you look at like the bond market and you look at yields, like for example,
the one everyone looks at the 10 year, I mean, that would, in my opinion,
look slightly more bullish right now. I could see sideways for a bit. It looks like one of those
areas where it just consolidates for a while, you know, maybe similar to the early 2000s before you
saw 2008, and then it really went down. So probably a lot more boring, you know, situation with that. And I think you need
kind of a real recession to really bring interest rates and yields down. I mean, I know everybody's
like going to talk about, you know, new Fed share and all that, but I don't think they're going to
do exactly whoever it may be. I don't think they're going to do exactly what Trump wants.
And even if they do cut rates aggressively, I mean, you still need like asset
prices to go down at this point to really get interest rates low. I mean, you could probably
get interest rates down to like 5.5%, maybe a, you know, a hundred basis points down from where
they are right now. They're probably mid, what are they mid to low sixes right now? I mean,
you'll go down a little bit, but, and you got to factor that into like the moment, once you get to
April, like the moment Trump announces who it's going to be, you probably could already estimate
the agenda and then it's already going to be factored into price, you know, very quickly.
So that's what we got to realize in terms of that. I think it's just too good to be true in terms of,
you know, in terms of interest rates right now, I think it's, it kind of follows that 18 to 20
year real estate cycle. And I don't think you're going to, there's like two ingredients that you really want to buy real
estate. You want low prices, number one, and number two, you want low interest rates. So,
I mean, there's not, that happens generally every 20 years. Like the last time you saw that was
after 08, you know, essentially like 2012, 2011, early 2010s was that point. You saw it for a
split second during pandemic when everyone
panicked for like six months or something. And it's likely that you're probably not going to
see that until 2030, early 2030s. Notice the kind of 20 year cycle, you know, 2032, let's say last
time was 2012. Before that, it would be, you know, 1992. There was this recession back then. That was
why George Bush senior didn't win win re-election most likely.
That was kind of a big buying opportunity.
Everything kind of follows these interesting cycles.
That's why it's like so interesting with Bitcoin, the four-year cycle and all that.
And I mean, the last thing I'll say here, I hate to be the bringer of bad news, but
I think when Bitcoin does break the four-year cycle, it won't really be breaking it as in like doing really well in a bull market,
in a bear market year. It'll be breaking it as in not making a new all-time high in a bull market
year. Essentially, you know, maybe you won't make a new all-time high in the early 2030s because
Bitcoin in most assets, it's very rare that an asset has three green decades in a row.
Bitcoin, 2010s was obviously, that's when it came out, inception of it.
That was the best decade.
I mean, if you got in there, you're probably a multimillionaire.
If you got in the early part of there and kept it until 2020, at least.
2020 onward, this is obviously going to be a green decade.
It'll probably continue to be green.
I could see it's hopping out somewhere between, I don't't know 180 all the way up to 300 or maybe even higher
by the end of this decade but the next decade could be more sideways and you may not see
a new all-time high for bitcoin until the early 2040s and that's just based on
you know kind of the cycle of history and what you see and you know i would imagine the 2030s
is going to be pretty you know i think i think the last thing I'll really say here is like, you're in a society,
especially in developed countries where anyone who loses their job could just easily deliver food,
do Uber, gig economy, and make a decent living, you know, make enough to make ends meet. Once
automation takes that all away, you're probably, that's probably going to be the inception of the
next recession. Now, when does that happen? Three, four years from now, I would guess before it,
you know, gets a big enough debt. I mean, I mentioned, I think the last time on this,
on this space, you know, you look at those little robots driving around Miami,
there's a lot of them now that's going to be the future of food delivery. I mean, Waymo's too,
like once that takes away Uber and and it makes it impossible for you know
you're just your average joe to just make 20 or 30 bucks an hour in the big cities then you got
a recession in my opinion and then you have all these type of things happen so yeah
that's well put that's what's i live in and i think that's what we're all wondering like
did we get to that tipping point?
Did we get to that catalyst a lot quicker than we thought?
I'm usually more on the conservative side.
I usually lean towards things are going to – progress takes longer than we'd expect.
You name it, from flying cars to self-driving delivery robots.
self-drived delivery robots. But I mean, I don't know. I don't have a great explanation for
But I mean, I don't know.
our jobs market and why we went from, you know, 200,000, 150,000, 110,000 increase in jobs gains
month after month after month to, you know, plus 30, minus 30, plus 10%, plus 10,000. We've gone from red hot to no growth, flirting with negative growth.
And is it because AI has been slowly bleeding that out and robotics and technology reducing
the amount of manual labor that you need?
Could be.
It also could just be from all the overhiring that we did way back in 2020 and 2021.
And this is just a correction from that.
But either way, if this – long story short, if U.S. jobs doesn't turn around, we'll have all bear market to discuss and argue about what were the causes, but it'll
still be a bear market.
Unemployment can't just keep rising with no effect.
I think we've been seeing the effect and we see it and we saw it in crypto and we saw
it with Bitcoin. We see it and we saw it in crypto and we saw it with bitcoin
we see it with the mag 7 and okay yes there's some pockets of companies in the economy that
are still going higher but it's getting fewer and fewer um so you know do with that information what you will hey man that was a pretty great discussion i think it's a great
place to wrap up unless any of you guys have anything else to say dude the nvidia conference
if you guys watch that that is literally a video out of wally if you guys saw that that was crazy i mean i so in my opinion the elites what
they do is they put out symbology and i think that they're symbolizing that the future of robots is
is around the corner bro i think we're almost there i i agree with that bro dude i agree with that, bro. Dude, I agree with that. You have a conversation with some people in our generation,
and when you speak to them, it's like they have a lag with their response
because they don't have a phone in front of them.
People who are always on their phone, like, dude, you go ahead into any gym.
Any gym, dude, I guarantee you, you look around,
everyone has their necks creaked like a
fishing rod looking at their phone dude and when you have a conversation it's like they say uh
and then they have like a usual like five to ten second dial-up response um if you remember what
dial-up was right it's like to start up the internet it takes like 20
seconds oh yeah i remember the sound and everything and you got to plug it out of the
wall and put it into the computer bro i remember yeah yeah and then it's like
and then there's like a there's like a there's like a little five second lag and it's like damn dude like you're not even human you're
a cyborg and uh yeah these people definitely don't lift man they don't lift no no you'd be
you'd be surprised there are many people in the gym that have this kind of like
this kind of uh behavior like they're just so used to spending so much of their waking life
just like on a phone um but anyways it was a great stream about an hour and a half usual time
um i'm gonna go ahead and wrap it up here guys It's been a great time
I'm still surprised so many people
Are like active this early on
In the year
But I want to thank all the speakers
Matt, Sylvester
Prometheus, Evan
Josh, thank you guys so much for coming up here
This is your first time tuning in guys
Which I mean from the audience I just see some of our usual listeners up here.
But in case I'm wrong on that, this is your first time tuning in and you enjoyed the content over the last 90 minutes.
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Bye-bye.
Thank you. you
another another is and
yeah yeah yeah
yeah
yeah Thank you.
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