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Market Talk- 200k next?BTC and crypto ready to outperform!?ATH soon!?
Recorded: July 8, 2025 Duration: 1:40:22Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion among crypto enthusiasts, key trends emerged highlighting the growth of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the strategic moves of LaunchCoin, and the rising prominence of meme coins like Bonk. With significant fundraising events and partnerships on the horizon, the crypto market is poised for an exciting phase of innovation and adoption.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you it Something's darkest creates a dream of soul
And it wants the light to take on shore
To keep them all together and fall
All around the winter time and wish of to be with all those storms Oh, I'm so glad you're here.
You're a little bit slow.
Oh, I'm so glad you're here.
Oh, I'm so glad you're here.
Come on.
Come on.
Come on.
Come on. Oh Oh Oh, my God. Oh Thank you. so
oh Oh Thank you. Guys, what is going on?
Man, I love starting off spaces with that song.
Hearts on Fire plays during the training montage
for one of the greatest movies of all time, Rocky IV.
And that last bit, that last minute,
that's when Rocky is climbing up the mountain.
I think that's where the crypto market is right now.
You see equities kind of chopping up a bit.
Equities haven't really done much for the past
two trading days really slow starts of the week btc back up to range highs and i think we discussed
this yesterday i think this is where btc and just the overall crypto market you're even seeing eth
right now gap up a bit i think this is where our market the market that we are mostly exposed to
which is crypto starting to outperform the equity markets equities have
been outperforming uh crypto to the point where you now have crypto exchanges whether they're
large or bucket shops or and even dexes and wallet providers starting to offer uh tokenized stocks
that that's how crazy it is it almost feels like we're at or getting close to
peak euphoria as far as the outperformance from stock from stocks relative to crypto i think
there's a trade uh to be made here especially with something like hype hype hasn't really been
doing much over the last two weeks since it peaked out at 45 bucks kind of just been ping-ponging from 38 to 41 40 bucks something
like that ETH is starting to outperform here locally at least it's been outperforming soul
been outperforming hype back up to 2600 plus and I think if equity is even just rancher if a little
bit more I think it's going to give crypto some time to be in the spotlight again stocks have
been outperforming crypto over the last month and a half just as crypto performed stocks from that
bottom in early april all the way to mid-may so i think at this point you know it's been ping-ponging
back and forth at some point they're probably going to converge but uh, over the last 12 months, Robinhood is up damn near 600%.
And things like Solana, I think Solana is barely up like 65% from the August low.
So over the last 12 months, of course, stocks have absolutely destroyed most altcoins and even Bitcoin in outperformance.
And you are going to have some IPOs, I think 21 Capital, which Matt discussed.
I believe Tether is a major investor within that company.
And there's probably going to be some more IPOs, probably something like a WAP that are going to IPO.
And those are going to be some great trades in the equity markets.
And you are always going to have your outliers but as a whole right now i do think there's a catch-up trade
to be made in crypto and when you have btc gap up as well locally back up to range highs while
the indices can just do nothing to start off the week the week after july where volume starts to
slowly come in i do think at some point over the next week or two, you could even see Bitcoin gap up to $120K.
But look, I got Donnie here.
I got Palos up here.
Chill should be here in the next like 20 minutes or something like that.
But I want to thank you all so much for coming today.
Whether you're listening live or you're listening to the audience, I hope you're all doing fantastic.
I hope your Tuesday or Wednesday, depending on where you are, finds you well.
So I want to welcome you back to Market Talk, brought to you by BecauseBitcoin.
I'm your host, Wabi, and for the next 45 minutes to an hour, we're going to go ahead and talk some markets here.
Bonk also made some fresh local highs after yesterday's dipperoni across the all coin market and I'm still enthusiastic about the about
that particular asset and it is now flipped spx 6900 in market cap and for coin as well so I do
think just as just in the way that we've seen hype and for coin in the past be market leaders as well
as spx 6900 I think we have a new winner here you take a look at the
daily chart on bonk and you pull out some just basic daily emas 15 day 30 day those emas are
curling upwards and bonk is one of the only altcoins right now that is about to uh blow through
its mid-may highs you can't really say that about a lot of alts.
And anytime you have something that used to be resistance and that asset starts to tap that resistance multiple times, at some point you're going to get some massive breakout.
And if it's the week after July 4th where Vantage Arm flow starts to come in back to the equity
markets, the setup is there. And the setup is something that me and Donnie have been talking about way back when in mid-April, late April, or right off the
bottom that the setup for the summertime is here. What we thought Q1 was going to bring, that's
probably what this summer is going to bring sometime in Q3. But anyways, guys, I hope you
guys are all ready for this emergency market update, this exclusive space that's going to be filled with lots of things that you're not going to find anywhere else.
But Donnie, man, I'd love to catch up on what we're discussing as far as the setup that's here, man.
You have equities laying the foundation for crypto to kind of steal the spotlight now, man.
How are you feeling today, brother?
Hey, bro, I'm feeling good man um still a little bit sick but it's it's definitely going away now i
think i'm going to be sweet in like a couple of days but yeah market is you know kind of at a
standstill for crypto but i just really feel like the energy is building up for this to break out very aggressively. Literally any day now, we've kind of scoped out the setup right before the World War III FUD event.
And just before that big drop happened, we managed to see that and kind of gauge how low it would go during the fear climax and got pretty close.
Around 98k was the guess.
And I hit 98.2 and you quickly got re-bought from those levels to where now having some sort of fear climax that's greater
than that seems very unlikely the way that the chart is shaped up you've got a ton of liquidity
above you've got accumulation works to the, which are also verified by literally retail selling low while someone is stepping in, buying in at those lows and pushing price up back into the range.
That was the whole point of that shakeout, which is now confirmed. So I can't really see anything that's going to tank the market greater than that. That was literally like World War III. People were speculating about that.
That was literally like World War III.
People were speculating about that.
So in saying that, can you still get a higher low at some point on this chart,
on Bitcoin's chart before you ascend higher?
Yes, but even still, like even zooming in really, really locally,
like on a one hour chart, it's looking super constructive for a breakout to go higher.
So once you do get that candle on BTC, which I
think it's literally lurking any day now, I've been mostly skewed towards kind of the first two
weeks of July. So the first 14-ish days around there, more so than kind of the latest point I
see this chart holding out before it breaks is around August. But again, we're in the close proximity, I think, of having this breakout.
And like you said, the stock trade, not that it's done,
but it can be locally overheated as in most of the like rush of people realizing,
oh, wow, like the stock market's actually, you know,
going to go much higher than it is right now.
going to go much higher than it is right now.
That's kind of getting overheated.
That's kind of getting overheated.
Whereas crypto is, again, building a ton of energy
below 110K on Bitcoin.
And subsequently, every other chart,
like ETH, ETH BTC, Bitcoin dominance, everything.
It's just USDT dominance.
Everything is just ready for that one move
that Bitcoin needs to print to really get going.
So people are really
sleeping on crypto right now right most i would say the general consensus in the market is that
alt season is not going to happen um we're going to be lucky if btc gets to 120 or 130 and that's
going to be the cycle top and all this kind of stuff so there's a there's going to be the cycle top and all this kind of stuff. So there's going to be a big emotional
gap basically once you do have this breakout to where people are really going to resist it,
just like they resisted stocks, right? You had the key levels on stocks, 5,800 on the stock market.
People were still skeptical that we're just going to roll over or we might deviate the high and
roll over. And they really fight the trend that's emerging in front of them. I feel like it's the
same setup for Bitcoin here.
It's going to probably break out.
You're going to start pushing 115, 120.
People will resist it and say, ah, who cares?
Like, that's the top anyway.
You know, 120, 125, somewhere around there is the top.
They'll keep resisting it.
It'll keep going higher, and then they'll eventually capitulate.
And that's where we have, you know, sort of a local correction,
somewhere above, you know know 130 or something like
that i think it'll be much higher than that i think it'll be upwards of 150 even higher before
we have a local uh correction i think we'll get super frothy and the way that crypto moves if you
check like the last four or five breakouts they've been very aggressive to the upside
and just leaving people behind that's typically how it happens right within like a three can i
bring up something interesting man something very interesting as you were speaking
that came into my head anytime we've had a major correction uh in august august 23 august 24
the local top doesn't come in until we've doubled from those levels we bottomed at 24K in August of 23. We didn't locally peak out until we hit
48K in January. And then we hit 48K again in August of 24 during that event with the end
carry trade crisis. And we didn't peak out until 100, 708K in December. So that would put us in
line with that target that you're setting for at 140,
150 K given that we bottomed that 73, 74 K and early April, it would kind of be the same move.
And we're actually bottoming out and we've, we've bottomed and recovered out from the bottom,
almost to the exact level, um, that we have during the recovery in August, essentially a slow V-reversal.
Back to the highs, little rejection before we break the previous high,
and then an immediate gap up.
You'll remember when we first tried to beat 30K once again in late October,
we tested it a few times, and then we gapped up.
Same thing in October of 24.
We started retesting 72, 73, and then we gapped up.
And here we find ourselves, again, in the same situation.
But instead of being in Q4, we're here in Q3.
Yeah, it's very similar.
And even the post-ETF correction that we had when the Bitcoin ETF actually went live on the 10th or 11th of January or whatever,
when we went to 49K, we corrected to about 38,800.
And then from there, we actually rallied to 74 point something,
which was about a 91% bump.
So again, it's close to that double that you're talking about.
I think as we progress as well,
the corrections are not going to be as long and drag out
as people have been conditioned to think that they're going to be. I think it's going to be much shorter and drag out as people have been conditioned to think they're
going to be. I think it's going to be much shorter, followed by another impulse higher,
just as everything materializes on the macro side of things, as the broader consensus starts to
essentially capitulate long and realizing that we have a crazy risk on environment that's in the
making over the next 18 months. We discussed it quite nicely in yesterday's space with Mr. Spread as well.
The dollar and a structural downtrend,
it's getting very close to losing some key levels.
It doesn't happen overnight, of course.
It's a very important macro chart
that takes time to play out.
But if those levels do start to get lost,
people will start to realize
that that risk on environment
is actually much longer than they believe that it was meant to be.
A lot of people are, again, preparing to exit
within the next two to three months or whenever this next leg happens
and not too much higher than here.
They're kind of hoping for a few multiples on alts
and they want to get out and all this kind of stuff.
But I forgot what I was saying just before you started speaking.
It was something to do with...
It's alright, man.
Basically, the emotional
gap that it creates
when people are trying to resist the trend,
it kind of adds to that rally
which does just push price
even higher as people literally
capitulate long. And you go through that typical sequence of psychology, which is literally
sell the low, right? From complete panic and fear. And then you go through a little bit of it. And
you can narrow this down to like a one hour chart, a daily chart, a weekly chart. You go into
disbelief
as the price escapes from where you sold, right? And then you're really fighting the trend now.
You get a little bit of renewed optimism as you start approaching the highs. You're like, oh,
okay, maybe it could actually break out. And then it breaks out very aggressively. You still haven't
bought. And that's where the FOMO kicks in. And eventually that leads to euphoria before you have
a correction. It doesn't have to be a cycle top.
It's just like the natural sequence of events
that you can narrow down to literally a one-hour chart
or a daily chart or whatever.
And we're setting up for that again, like you're saying.
You're slowly creeping up to these highs.
People are getting impatient.
Everything is still the exact same on the macro side of things.
Every chart is pointing that it wants to continue higher.
But people are just not convinced until the move happens.
And it's kind of counterintuitive of what you should be doing.
So I don't know.
Everyone wants to long this breakout again.
I think they're going to miss a big percentage of gains on that breakout.
And it can happen while you're in your sleep.
And it's likely going to be super impulsive,
as it's been impulsive every single other time that it's happened.
I don't think it's going to be any different.
And for the first time in three years, you actually might have Bitcoin dominance rolling, ETH BTC taking over.
Subsequently, OTHER's BTC is likely going to start to carve out a low.
And these coins are going to escape from these lows pretty quickly.
these coins are going to escape from these lows pretty quickly.
And I don't think when a chart that significant like others BTC starts to flip,
that trend is pretty hard to reverse, right?
So you're not going to be seeing these prices that you've had so long to accumulate ever again,
like for the rest of the cycle.
I think you won't see those numbers ever again, right?
think you won't see those numbers ever again, right? As the broader sort of
macro side of things start to actually, you know, materialize, right? We just had the,
you know, one big beautiful bill signed, the deregulation of banks. As the next batch of
liquidity starts to actually essentially come into this market, I don't think these corrections that we've been seeing,
minus 90, minus 95%,
they're going to be a regular occurrence.
I think you're going to see, I'll still correct,
like 60, 70%,
but you're not going to see these big resets,
these long corrective periods
where it just gets super boring and all that kind of stuff.
I think it's going to go back to like
a traditional crypto bull run
where you have these big impulses higher. The corrections are there, but they're just not as
steep as you think. And you actually don't get those clean retests of support, demand zones,
whatever you want to call it. And prices just keep escaping higher until the cycle actually wraps up.
It's a very big, it's a complete 180 in what we've been used to. That's what I think is going to happen.
Well, man, I put something up on the nest, Donnie,
from what you're telling me. If you guys open up the Spaces tab and look above our amazing profile pictures,
you'll see a nice meme that I put on my personal profile
with myself, Goku, and Naruto,
basically saying that it's Melt-up season, Jerome Powell is
printing money, and it's your daily reminder that you're simply not bullish enough. A daily
reminder that you're simply not bullish enough, man. But I'll also go ahead and put this chart
that I posted yesterday. It's a beautiful masterpiece that I crafted on TradingView.
I finally got around to using TradingView
and I learned it within two minutes.
So now I know that all the fancy lines and indicators
aren't really as much work as people make it out to be.
But either way, I personally,
this is probably the greatest chart ever posted in history,
maybe ever.
I mean, even the BB profile commented under it saying,
wow, Wavi, what a great job.
Absolutely fantastic.
Great chart, probably the best chart ever.
The others BTC chart, which you commented on, Donnie,
which of course gave me an insane amount of engagement.
So I want to thank you for that, brother.
Any post that you comment on just opens up the floodgates, man.
But I'm hoping that
this chart over the next six months ages fruitfully. This is the Others BTC chart on the weekly with
my EMAs. And the EMAs are actually starting to calm down a bit. And if we simply just have a
wave of breath back to the yearly open, Others, BTC can chat up by about 100%.
And when it comes to these altcoin predictions, these altcoin speculations, I actually haven't
been wrong. I don't remember the last time that I was wrong on any sort of breadth with the altcoin
market as a whole. So if this does age badly i don't know bro i guess they're gonna start
throwing tomatoes at me some virtual tomatoes donnie but what are you thinking about the uh
others btc chart on the weekly man i think it looks very similar to um you see how you've well
i actually can't see the nest but i'm on your page and i've got the old coins versus bitcoin
chart that you've laid out with like the three boxes.
Is that the correct one?
Yeah.
Yeah.
The middle one where you've outlined.
Here, I'll just post it in the nest.
So in case it's the wrong one.
But where you've outlined alt season two,
in between alt season two and one,
you can kind of see you have
from the top, you correct
down, you have like a relief rally, and then you have
a big capitulation down.
We're kind of at that spot right now.
We had our
big correction from the top. We've had
a couple of relief rallies.
The biggest one being
I think that's
what is that? I can't even read the dates.
I think that was the 2024 rally where we went up to 74K.
And then, you know, you can see others, BTC going down again into a capitulation.
We had the Q4, like kind of really mini rally of 2024.
But again, we've capitulated all the way down.
It looks like we're at that point now where we have, we've capitulated all the way down. It looks like
we're at that point now where we're essentially going to reverse. And there's a lot of confluence
that points to this actually playing out. Like I said, ETH BTC has carved out a low as soon as DXY
went under 100. And now that it's spent time there and unlocked a ton of global liquidity,
ETH BTC has stayed. Well, that low has stayed the actual low since then.
And it's looking like it wants to curl up,
which it's going to make this chart curl up as well
because if ETH is doing well,
the rest of the market is also doing well.
And we know if Bitcoin does break out from these levels,
ETH is going to run super hot, right?
The ETH BTC chart is definitely swaying in favor of ETH.
So it literally
feels like we're at that capitulatory low where, you know, this chart starts to reverse. And again,
this is a cyclical trend, which it's very hard to reverse back to the downside if it starts to
rally and break some of these key upside levels. So in my head, this makes a lot of sense because I view the timeline of the cycle
somewhere around six to 18 months to the end of 2026. Anywhere in between there, I'm thinking of
a potential larger correction or bear market or something like that. So this chart actually gives
confluence to that, that we're going deep into 26. And that's actually where old coins start to
really take over. It also makes sense from like the macro side of things of all of the economic benefits that
Trump is promising to the middle and low income people. That's going to positively affect the
business cycle. You know, small businesses are going to have more money. They're going to want
to invest into things. It takes time for this to actually trickle through the economy, right?
Many, many months, six, nine, 10, 12 months.
So by the time all of that materializes
and it actually starts to evidently show itself
in these charts, it's going to be way down the line,
which just points to 26,
to have that really euphoric sort of like
where alts kind of dominate the scene.
It doesn't mean that Bitcoin isn't going to go
to crazy high numbers.
It probably will. It just means that alts are also going to do insanely well and there's a
lot more alts than there's ever been which means that you know this ultra bitcoin chart can easily
flip in favor of bolts as those macro conditions really do materialize all i uh all i got from what you said bro was print baby print man i posted up uh something
else up on the nest man i put your target like this post if you believe bitcoin is gonna hit 200
k this year and all coins are gonna hit new all-time highs i got pepe the frog on my shoulder
we're sitting on a rocket naruto's giving the peace sign and the statue
of liberty is with an american flag while bald eagles are flying in the background brother that
that's the kind of mood that we should be getting in man it kind of feels like september of uh i'm
in that mood i'm just waiting i know it's coming yeah dude print baby print that that's that's i
think that's the uh that's that that should be the theme for next year,
print, baby, print.
Right now, it's just grow, baby, grow,
where it's just the set getting ready
to do backdoor QE like Yellen did in 2015.
And, dude, I can even see the cycle.
I hate saying cycle,
because the fact of the matter is
a lot of the flows that are going to be coming into ETH and SOUL in the next year are probably just going to be TradFi, to be honest.
I think what you're seeing with the BTC ETF, you're probably going to see on ETH and SOUL sometime next year as rates go lower and the Fed stance goes back to neutral.
I don't think Powell is going to end off his term without quantitative
tightening ending. Just from the Fed going back up to neutral, and I said this on the show yesterday,
ETH can probably hit $4,500 and Seoul can probably go back to $300, in my opinion,
even though the inflation on Seoul has been so horrible over the last six months that in order for Seoul to get
back to its all-time high that it hit during Inauguration Day, the market cap is going to be
like 35% higher, which is actually crazy to think about. But that is mostly due to the last batch
of seed investors and pre-seed from soul back from like 2019 which is crazy bro
imagine holding a ticker for six years you can't really move it you can't really move it at all but
i think the entry for those seed investors on soul is like 20 cents or something like that
great trade for holding for six years man the guys that most, bro, is they lose their password or something,
and then they come back to hundreds of millions of dollars.
No one can actually hold through any of that volatility.
Yeah, that's real, man.
Even with the Coinbase investors from, I think the pre-se seed was like 2011 or something like that this one
dude he put in 20 bands in 2011 and then when they IPO'd his stack grew to like over a billion
which is which is nuts some Asian guy but 10 years bro and just just for holding for 10 years I don't
even think BTC generated.
I don't want to say something stupid.
I should probably not say that.
I don't.
I do not want to say that.
But I'm pretty sure it's almost the same return.
Buying 20 bands worth of BTC in 2011 probably made you like a gigabillionaire, just like that one guy.
I think he was legit the first investor
for Coinbase in 2011.
So...
Hopefully there's a...
Now we have to make up for it
and meme coins while you when the
old season heats up
and just hit back-to-back 100x's.
Dude, I
believe in you, bro. 100x
Donnie. Hey, we already got one out the way it's pretty nice
two two two bro you've nailed i've now more than two but i mean recently
yeah recently that from like january till now with uh base farts and uh and circle well base firecoin what was it 300k to 90 mil that's about 300x
yeah i'll never forget the peanut one man peanut was unreal yeah that that one was on that was like
a that was like a i really i really think people don't realize what's about to happen to this market
and like how speculative and ridiculous it really is about to get.
We literally haven't had these very large,
important charts like Bitcoin dominance,
ETH, BTC, DXY,
everything going the right direction
that we want for literally three years.
And we've still had 1 x ten thousand x opportunities even in
old coins like some of them have done hundreds of x's casper uh what was the one before it rug
that uh spread hit what was that one oh mantra there's been heaps bro and so what do you think
is going to happen when these when these super important charts actually flip in the direction that we want?
And you have a runway of about 6 to 18 months.
And you have the macro landscape that they're trying to push, right? Outpace their debt with growth to literally set you up for a crypto bubble, right?
And they're wanting to push stable coins and Scott Besson is saying they're going to go to 2 trillion in market size.
Like, it's just insane, bro.
Really, people don't realize,
but they'll obviously realize as it starts to unfold,
which is too late.
But as long as you're positioned now
and you realize that as it's happening,
you'll definitely want to hold a little bit longer.
And I forgot to say one thing before we officially started the space
and now i'm kind of kicking myself in the foot for it but guys show some love to the space
if you guys are wondering how you guys can show your love to the space help support the space and
all that good stuff hit the spaces tab once you guys do that you'll see all of our awesome profile
pictures look above on the nest on the jumbotron whatever it is that you want to call it and then
you'll see an awesome link that says x.com slash i slash spaces guys do me a favor please hit the
like button and smash up the repost and retweet button there's almost 300 of you or just over 300 of you if i can just get 20 likes
and 20 reposts and retweets whatever it is that you want to call it 20 likes or even 25 likes and
repost i'd be eternally grateful as it does help please our tech overlords here on x on twitter
whatever it is that you want to name this platform now personally i don't really care what you guys call it x or
twitter twitter spaces did have a better ring to it though to be quite frank but go ahead and do
that guys you guys always do a great job and apologies for not saying that at the start of
the space and uh we actually have uh cree who uh loves to come up here and say man donnie thank you
for giving me base Farcoin.
That's one of the first things that he says
anytime he comes up here, man.
Cree, I'll pass the mic over to you momentarily.
But yeah, by the way, guys,
if you want to come on up and talk shop,
feel free to do so.
I don't think we had a space on Friday
where I usually do that.
So if you guys have anything that you want to discuss
or anything like that, I'll open up the stage for like 10 minutes or something like that just hit the
request button i'll bring you um right on up but don is anything else that you wanted to say brother
before i pass it on over to paul um no i think that's it yep paul what's going on brother
well what's going on guys good to see you again and uh i swear nice bounce from launch
coin today pasternak is uh pasternak is doing all the right news man hiring the right people
talking about the flywheel actually going live man i hope this actually pans out to be frank
because it's been uh it's been a patience game after that euphoria high at 350 mil.
Listen, I held those AI agent coins through some absolute insane volatility, including
shock crash outs.
So I'm like forged on chain for these kind of things.
Obviously, yeah, volatility is crazy it's a
combination of you know market been being choppy but also people kind of um losing confidence in
what these guys are building and gaining confidence back and all that but i agree i i think that uh
he's been making some solid moves in the
background and i think there's some catalysts that are lining up for that one um obviously we saw the
uh wop uh teaser that should be crazy like there's there's uh dude if they IPO man that's a clean exactly exactly yeah 100% and uh I don't know if
you've seen but they're right now like Twitter's been going crazy about their marketing um strategy
they these guys have like some of the best ads like they're really really smart on on
just the way that they're growing that company so i'm pretty sure that there's going to be i don't
think it's just going to be like a small uh integration like i think it's going to be something
i don't think they would go through the trouble and especially attaching themselves to crypto
if they didn't have something like this was like a net positive for the business model.
So that's one.
They obviously brought in some native on-chain and crypto guys to help with the comms.
That's already been received really well.
really well. And, um, I think what's happening very soon is they're going to rebrand the coin
to, uh, just believe. So instead of being launch coin, it's going to be just called believe. And
then the flywheel should be following up like right after that. That's the, that's the rumors
that I'm hearing, um, at the moment. So I think that that that should if it coincides with this beginning of uh you know
um all season that we keep talking about and that we're we are like anticipating i think it's kind
of perfect timing and uh obviously you've got you know pump you've got bonk you've got uh the
believe ecosystem like i think all of these will do well
um just different niches and and and different pockets of of uh of on-chain speculation
essentially which tends to get very frothy um when alt season really kicks in so yeah i mean
i'd love to hear from chill as well i know you've've been on that ICM train as well. I want to hear what you've been seeing lately because I know you're pretty stuck into that side as well.
I think it's probably one of the most obvious bets.
I mean, we've been crying in this space for years about, you know, we need real, legit projects.
We need, you know, real something that provides real world value.
And, you know, we complain about the pump farm rugs.
We complain about, you know, teams bundling supply and rugging projects. And,
you know, finally, we have a piece of this space that actually brings something of real value
forward. And, you know, I think what Pasternak is doing, and the reason why you see a lot of the,
the reason why you see a lot of holders, the reason why you see a lot of holders
being so patient, a lot of the community over there being so patient because they realize
how big this is, right? Obviously, we could say, you know, a few weeks ago that, you know,
maybe there are some things that the platform needed to work on and things that they needed
to change, adjustments that needed to be made. But Rome
wasn't built in a day, right? And I think the community understands that. And that's why they've
been so patient with Pasternak. A lot of crypto degens, they expect everything to be done.
And they need constant reassurance and constant handholding when it comes to
the enduring price action and things of that nature. But now,
you know, you see Pasternak making meaningful moves, a lot of things being done in the background.
And to me, you know, while this, I'm happy that this is all being done while the market isn't
really performing the best, right? We've seen a lot of volatility over the last week or two,
especially on chain.
We see a lot of concerns around the pump fund launch
and things of that nature.
So there's a lot happening on chain.
And so we haven't really seen anything absolutely run.
There has been some memes and stuff like that
that's gone crazy.
But in terms of just the ICM sector
itself, we haven't really seen anything run just yet. But in my mind, that gives, number one,
everyone an opportunity to actually get in at the ground floor. There are a lot of great projects
that are sitting at massively undervalued prices, number one. Number two is you have, you know, you basically have like this entire,
this entire, the backbone of this entire narrative being built out and guardrails are being put in
place. And to me, that just sets us up for a much longer and more sustainable run when the
entire market flips. Just like Donnie and Wabi have been alluding to, not only are liquidity
conditions and all the stuff on the macro side, but then you also look at things like others BTC,
like Wabi pointed out. All that stuff is about to flip bullish for us.
And we already see signs of that already flipping.
And it's just a matter of positioning yourself into, you know, sectors in the market that will capture a lot of that upside.
And I think that will be, you know, the ICM narrative. And, you know, as Pasternak continues to just, you know, you know, do his thing and he lays the guardrails, he expands the I think it'll truly put LaunchCoin on the map.
And I think that will be, you know, the ICM narrative.
It's already on the map within crypto.
But I think as startups view this as a more attractive avenue to launch, I think we're already seeing some pretty big players involved launching projects on LaunchCoin.
So I can only imagine where that leads.
But yeah, as far as positioning, man, I'm fully positioned in the ICM narrative.
All the sector leaders are super undervalued.
They're pretty obvious if you do just at least five minutes of reading.
You can understand where a lot of these projects are headed.
So I'm excited for it, man.
I'm really excited.
Yeah, chill, man.
That's something that I know you've been keeping up with, man.
And when the Fed does flip neutral, I think those projects are going to go just as crazy as memes do.
And when the next cycle starts, which I think we're coming at the start of a new cycle, going into another one.
Like I think this cycle right now, is uh the pro growth cycle where the fed
goes back to neutral i think that's going to lead to another cycle which is which is when btc dominance
probably goes down by like 15 or something like that um there are a lot of charts that are
absolutely floored with teams that are still building and for for those that think rec charts can't come back, just take a look at mooting.
This thing bottomed at like 20 mil or something like that
and within a week and a half gapped up to almost 400.
And that's a meme.
That is a meme.
Take a look at Aura.
Aura went from like 900K to like 220 mil.
And that's something that Donnie has talked about in the past where like
whenever you see floor charts and communities are still active and it's not just the same like 10
people saying the same thing where you have active people join the community and teams that are
actually that they're actually building up a war chest those charts come back very very very quickly
but um is there anything else that you
guys uh want to discuss there there hasn't really been much honestly outside of yeah there's one the
pump fun token it's only the pump fun token which i i'm hoping guys that it's hope is a strange word
to using crypto because pump fun has just showed that they're here to extract
more so than to add value and if we're seeing something like bonk outperform right now and bonk
has most of their supply already on the market any fees that they generate on bonk fun goes back to
the ecosystem and their market cap is two bill and pump fund is raising right now. We're going to do a public sale at four bill market cap.
Where's the, where's the upside in something like a pump fund compared to something like
a bonk?
That's, that's, that's what I'm wondering.
I think like that's the, that's the question that like a lot of people have to ask themselves
now.
And this kind of pertains more to, active on-chain traders that they're kind
of in the markets. This isn't really for, if you're just here, long-term investing. I don't
think this applies to you as much, but there are bets that you can take if you want to kind of get
exposure to this, like a bonk, obviously, or if you want to go deeper into the, you know, like a useless
or something like that, just something that kind of represents a lot of the activity, or even GP
is a good one. I think GP is probably going to be massive. But those are kind of like good ways to
get long term exposure to bonk. But, you know, if you're onchain trader, I see a lot of people calling for, you know, this pump fund TGE to be like a, to mark a potential top for the Bonk ecosystem.
And I don't agree.
You have a team on one side that's, has built for itself a reputation of, you know, extraction.
you know, extraction. And then on the other side, like, like Wabi was saying, you have a team that
now is kind of giving back to Solana, giving back to the ecosystem. And one, one thing I also want
to point out is that Bonk is also accumulating soul and they'll stake soul to secure the network.
Whereas PumpFun has been selling hundreds of millions of soul over this last,
you know, ever since they've been created, basically, they've been slow, they've been
kind of clipping soul the entire time. So one can even say that not only have they built a
reputation for being like extract, for extracting, but they've also kind of limited the upside of Solana itself just with them doing
so much selling, whereas Bonk will kind of act as the Bonk fund platform will kind of act as this
sort of tailwind versus a headwind for Solana, for the trenches, for traders. I think all the
incentives are properly aligned
on Bonk. And obviously, there's still going to be rugs. There's still going to be,
you know, people who scam and stuff like that. I mean, it's memes, you know, that's to be
expected. But I think on Bonk, there's a little different sort of culture, a little less PVP, more PVE. And Bonk is slowly rewriting the
rules. So I just go where I see liquidity, capital, and volume. And right now I'm seeing it on Bonk.
I'm seeing it be pretty sustainable as well. And whether it holds number one, number two position, as far as market share is anyone's
guess. I mean, we'd have to see what Pump Fund comes out with as a sort of response to their
positioning and response to Bonk. But we'll see what that is. But ultimately, I do feel at the very least, Bonk will sustainably be one of the top platforms for memes.
So Bonk for memes, Believe for actual utility startups, companies, actual ICM-type projects.
And then everything else will just kind of be scattered elsewhere.
That's the way I'm looking at it right now, at least.
I like the Bonk ecosystem, man.
When Useless went back into price discovery
and it broke 50 mil,
when it started trending at like 75,
I'm like, all right,
this thing is clearly going to steal some mind share from spx and
and uh and farcoin for the short term so probably a good time to get some bags you're not early
you're not super late you're just on time and at least you know what kind of music is playing
and when i see someone like bonk guy essentially performing an echo bubble of what murad did last year it takes me back to that
time period and i'll go ahead and post i post it up on the nest when i did that space with murad
no one really believed in meme queen super cycle they just wanted to be right curve and think oh
it's just going to be pepe and look at what pepe did it underperformed by an egregious amount
compared to murad's list.
And Murad was already going viral.
When I had him on the show in September, I'm like, damn, like this guy truly actually believes in what he's talking about.
Like when you listen to Murad, it's like, you know, I got to get some of these bags or else I'm going to be left behind.
Like he's a storyteller, man.
You buy into his stuff.
And it's like it actually gets you excited
right believing in something and not just like preaching this story of retail coming in to buy
your bag so you can dump on them and that's why i think a lot of a lot of these other memes have
outperformed have underperformed because a lot of their community is just like oh just wait until
like slower eth get to these levels so you can dump your bags.
Like you need more than just a story like that.
You need more than just like retail is going to come in to buy my bags and that's it.
Right. But I'll go ahead and put that space up on the nest.
It's probably the best space ever, in my opinion, that I'll probably ever do.
the best base ever, in my opinion, that I'll probably ever do.
I'm hoping to one day eclipse that, but as far as things that have aged,
until the melt-up thesis that me and Donnie have,
the space with Murad was just insane, man.
When he came on, SPX was trading at like 25 mil,
and then within five to six weeks it was trading at almost two
bill market cap that is a clean liquid 100x or damn near 100x so if you guys want to listen to
that space that we had back then it's um up on top and as far as whoop i posted um their promo
up above on the nest it's pretty sick man they used ai and also some some gta4 online stuff and they're basically talking
about internet capital markets and i think a lot of um big ct personalities like uh basic
16z are a part of uh their crew so um that's going to be an interesting trade depending on
that's going to be an interesting trade depending on what valuation they raise at.
A lot of these IPOs, man, they're going to come out from Web2
that are like marketing for people that run online businesses.
That's basically what WAP is.
They're run by people that actually understand markets,
not just how to go viral, but the way markets work
and how efficient and inefficient they can be.
So there's always a trade to be made, whether it's in crypto or whether it's in TradFi.
And LaunchCoin could be a massive beneficiary of that.
And if something out of memes does run, like we saw what AI did in Q4, everybody wins because
everybody's bag pumps.
It's not just one sector going nuts.
But I do
like what Bankai is doing.
He's also a man of God, talks about the word
and all that stuff. So how can you
go against a man of God?
He's basically telling
you the same story that Murad
has been giving, and he defends his bags
every single day.
He's always active on it. He doesn't just post
two or three times. This guy is super active rating every single post. And he's always active on here. He doesn't just post two or three times. Like,
this guy is super active rating every single post. So whenever you see a figure like that
capture so much mindshare, you have to set your own ego aside and say, hey, look,
I have no edge right now, which for me, I don't really think I have edge right now in this market.
So I'm just going to go with what the market is telling me. And I know I'm not super early,
It's going to go with what the market is telling me.
And I know I'm not super early, but I'm not terribly late,
especially if we're seeing the indices trading at all-time highs
and majors still have left to catch up with that usual big gap up
that they typically have a week or two after indices break their all-time high.
But Donnie, is there anything else that you want to say, brother?
I was just thinking about how Pepe hit 12 billion market cap
with DXY still over 100
with Fed funds rates still over 4%
and QT still in play
and we're just having the expansionary side of policy
being signed off now
just something to think about over the next 18 months
12 billion market capital.
Donnie, Donnie, can't we say the same thing about SPX 6900?
Pepe hit, what was it, 5 bill in March of 2024.
It barely doubled after that.
And then you had countless other projects come out of the woodwork and almost flipped it.
So wouldn't the trade, just to capture more upside, right, with the same safety rails and all that stuff, with all supply being out of the market already, already survived multiple 50% drawdowns, wouldn't you say as far as mindshare and Murad being on TikTok and literally him building an entire army, wouldn't you say as far as major memes go or cold vibes or whatever you want to say wouldn't you
say that spx 6900 would be a trade to benefit off of um dxy going down and the easing and
liquidity tab being turned on and all that good stuff everything i was just using that as a nice
example because it was the leading meme coin for the cycle.
You can apply that to Fartcoin, SPX, anything, literally any token.
But it's more so these big ones, right?
Like even Doge itself, I personally believe it's going to hit multi-dollars this cycle.
It's the ceiling that that raises for everything else that I like.
It's not that I'm going to be buying Pepe or Doge.
I'm going to be buying the low-cap stuff that I can find coming off a bottom and try and make ridiculous returns. But the ceiling
that gets raised from these tokens going, let's just take Pepe, for example, going to 50 or 100
billion as conditions start to flip optimal. All of these other tokens are going to be running to
decabillions, for example, like SPX, Fartcoin
all that kind of stuff and the ones below
that are going into the billions
and currently they're sitting sub 50 million
so it's just
it's impressive that
it hit 12 billion right regardless
of if it gets flipped or any of that shit
it just means whatever is going to be running
hot in an optimal
market is going to go to disgusting numbers.
Donnie, if Doge runs to a couple of bucks,
a gallon of milk here in the US
is going to be like 15 bucks a year or two after that.
That's going to be nuts.
Like, I think the gains right now for us,
we think about that and
of course we get excited but for the average individual man after every dude after every major
crypto asset bubble the prices for goods and services the prices for just basic food um and
even cars they go up astronomically so like when we start if if right if doge guts to
like two to three bucks my god man that that to me is gonna spell catastrophe because i know
12 to 18 months after the fact and we have a brutal downturn and inflation starts to take the
hell up it's gonna be it's it going to take some guts to bid to bid
whatever it is that we bottom man, because those corrections in a bear market are going to be
insane. And at first, here's the thing with that is that I think people are a bit jaded from the
COVID cycle, which was basically, you know, the highest inflation in a long time where the inflation that surged equated
to very poor growth. As you saw,
the whole world was shut down, businesses were shut down, people couldn't literally expand their
businesses with the amount of money that was flooding the
system. So you've got massive inflation and no growth, let's just say.
So that's what destroys gas prices, grocery prices, all this kind of stuff that the general public is going to struggle to purchase, essentially, from all of that. But what they're trying to do now, which we don't know if it's going to work out or not until it happens, and we see the results of it, is that they're really trying to push for
this AI exponential growth, right? To have a productivity boom, where the amount of inflation
that's coming in is going to be matched by the growth, that you know we don't have to essentially uh go through
something similar that we had in covet where you had tons of uh inflation and no growth right so
that way wages can keep up with prices going higher and things like that so if that's the
case then it won't be that bad it won't be like covet nowhere nowhere even close to that because
everything will be you be growing together essentially.
So there is a fine
line between all of this stuff.
So yeah.
Don, let me ask you a question
dude. Do you like beef jerky?
I've never tasted
beef jerky in my entire life.
It's more of like a panic.
I need protein.
Let me go to the gas station and buy it
okay i've never understood that market ever um i was at hofus the other day and when i when i went
to go pay they had all these different kinds of beef jerky like bison beef jerky, chicken beef jerky. And I start to wonder, how do they make this thing?
Yeah, I never liked the taste.
But again, if you're desperate for protein,
sometimes it can hurt because it's low calories as well.
Yeah, and it's just like this dry meat stick
that has just been there for who knows how long.
It's fucking terrible for you.
You know what I'm saying?
So it's like, what's the difference between that and a chocolate bar?
What exactly is the difference?
Only the protein number.
Yeah.
It's like those cookies, those protein cookies.
Those are probably equally as bad, bro.
The whole processed garbage.
Yeah, it's literally just wheat
with cheap store-brand protein,
to be honest.
Like, store-brand protein.
But, yeah, dude,
pro-growth and all that stuff,
it's, you know, when you –
Yo, what's up, Louie?
I saw your request.
What's up, man?
Were you going to say something?
No, no.
I just heard me stick, so I –
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
I saw your request.
Yeah, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
It's like my bad stick.
I'll put it up on the nest. Louie made It's like my bad signal. I'll put it up on the Nest.
Louie made a video today for the YouTube.
I'll put that up on the Nest.
On Tuesdays, we've been running some extra YouTube content, you guys,
with individual videos from the team.
Mondays, Max does his videos.
Tuesdays, Louie does his videos.
Wednesdays, I think it's tucker thursdays it's
prometheus and then wednesdays it's tommy's and i think it kind of kind of switches around i'm not
sure jack is if he's done a video yet or not but feel free to check that out i put it up on the
nest you guys uh we have kre who requested to speak uhnie, I think he's your number one fan, bro.
KRE, what's up, bro?
Oh, number one fan?
I mean, yeah, Donnie did call.
Yes, sir, man.
He called an amazing amount of alpha just from like December all the way up
into the summer, but big fan of BB in general, really.
I've been watching you guys for about a year now.
You kind of answered one of my main questions actually
The main thing I was wondering about is like
Okay, when the music stops this time
Like I was just wondering what everybody's opinion on what that would look like
I know Donnie said his outlook is about six months to a year and six months if I'm not mistaken
And I was just wondering like,
how like things are should be like very different at that point. I mean, everything's moving very
slowly right now. And then it's going to be the all at once type of deal. But I was just wondering
what people's opinion on the situation will be like from then. You mean the downturn?
people's opinion on the situation will be like from then you mean the downturn essentially yeah
the downturn if there will even be one because i don't think we'll have i agree like we won't
really have the same type of bear markets at that point yeah i'll post something in the nest that i
wrote in may kind of of what i think um i'll try and say in the fastest way possible,
but basically the market is conditioned to feed off of doom at the moment.
And you're not here to completely oppose the market
and just always go for a contrarian view
unless you have data that points to a contrarian view.
And the way that I'm seeing it, especially with the timeline of the cycle, some big macro shifts like DXY being in potentially
a many, many year downtrend can indicate that the bear markets that we experience from now for risk
assets might be not as crazy as people expect them to be and that they've been tortured by the last
couple of cycles. People are actually expecting 80% drawdowns on Bitcoin as it's happened three times in a row.
But the space is getting widely adopted.
Market caps are going to get much larger.
Therefore, the downside is also more limited.
You've got more of an immaculate bid coming into this market.
That's just going to perma bid BTC.
That'll absorb selling pressure on downside.
There's many things that can indicate that we're not going to see some sort of crazy
drawdown unless we have massive upside.
And if we go to 400K BTC, sure, you can still have a minus 70, 75% correction, but that's
still going to be higher than today's prices so yeah read that read
that post that i wrote but i just think um you know most people are thinking about this drawdown
or this impending doom that's around the corner where it's really it's the opposite i believe
um just gonna play the advocate for like a short second. I'm understanding that like USDC and stable coins essentially are backing the US dollar.
This should have some type of effect on like DXY, would it not?
No, it has nothing to do with that.
The way that...
No, I was just going to touch upon what KRE said.
I think Arthur Hayes made an article about this.
And essentially what Arthur Hayes said in his latest article was QE has been going on for some time, some backdoor QE.
And that's through the printing of Tether and USDC.
That makes sense.
Basically, when you deposit, let's say, 100k of fiat into some exchange or something and
you're buying Tether or whatever, essentially, it's a proxy for buying US government debt.
So they buy US government debt on the short end directly.
So you're basically funding the US government when you're buying Tether, essentially. So imagine if, let's say, the whole world is kind of wanting to get into the space because
it's doing so well.
Everything is green.
You've essentially got the US government and BlackRock marketing this space to the
entire world as a hedge against the environment that they're creating, which is persistently
very inflationary.
People are going to be rushing to this market
to load up on BTC, its finite supply, hardest money on earth, all this kind of stuff.
That's going to unlock a crazy amount of stablecoin demand, which indirectly also funds the US
government debt so they can keep that system running because it is getting close to its
sort of life cycle.
Not anytime soon, but they're extending that life cycle
with this new essential financial weapon that they're creating,
which is the whole game that's being played right now,
which it doesn't even, in my view,
Bitcoin, obviously it does matter as a hedge against this.
It's kind of like also a marketing tool.
If it's pumping, doing super well,
it unlocks that demand for the US government debt, which right now we do know has a supply
and demand imbalance because no one wants to buy their debt in an inflationary setup
and earn 4% yield. But Tether can earn that 4% yield essentially for free because you're giving
them the money to go and buy that 4% yield. So imagine if the whole world is getting amongst this and you're funding trillions of
dollars worth of US government debt, they're going to be able to bring rates down and keep running
that same system that they've been running up until now, which if you look at the yield curve
spiking out of control from the lows, this is going to bring downwards pressure on yields for
the US government debt. So it's a huge play on the US side of
things. And you've obviously got BlackRock and all these other ETF issuers backing them at this.
So what are they doing? They're pushing pro-growth, pro-markets. That requires tons of stimulus.
That stimulus creates a massively inflationary setup globally. What's the hedge against it?
Bitcoin gold stocks. And they're marketing crypto kind of as the center point of all of this.
And that's subsequently funding their debt anyway.
So massive, massive play. That's the big picture setup.
That is a big picture setup. Yeah, that's up and to the right is what it sounds like.
It's up and to the right, higher for longer, everything.
Everything, yeah. Okay.
And with the...
Go ahead.
Go ahead. Go ahead. everything yeah okay and with and all i know go ahead go ahead i know i was gonna say all i know is that the moment pepe goes into price discovery man i'm giving myself a three-week countdown man
a three-week countdown to to get the hell that was actually my next thing i was about to say
so it's hey i'm not capping dude anytime pepe has made a new all-time
high uh in market cap within three weeks the market tops out and goes to kingdom come
like it gets sent to you know what kingdom come is bro it's the place where the sun doesn't shine
you've had you've had you know plus 60 bitcoin dominance ethTH BTC in a perma downtrend,
DXY above 100,
no QE, still QT, rates still high.
So I wouldn't be so quick to jump out if that happens.
There's plenty of other exit triggers
that you would use,
but of course you still want to,
you know, be taking profits
out at that point.
Some.
Yeah, and Donnie,
I would say just to throw some more light on what i'm saying
if you have all those things happening when assets break all-time high they're likely to rush
to the top rather than not if we just take what we've seen this cycle everything has been front
running everything it's the front run of a front run of a front run
it's priced in before it's priced in and even then it's even more priced in for the next event
so say pepe's all-time high right now is 12 bill 12 bill and a half or something like that a market
cap when it breaks it it probably does a quick double or a quick triple within three weeks and
if i see that happening it don't i see that happening i i i can't sell a
dream and you're right say oh you're so early you're right you're right it's definitely going
to be a local top at least that's what i was i that's what i was thinking because i hope i'm very
benefit like each benefits heavily off of like usdc and dxy with the yields and everything, right?
That's kind of where that sentiment is coming from.
Yeah, well, just think of, if you want to think of it from the most simplest form,
just think of DXY going down.
The whole world is feeling just a little bit richer
because they have that wiggle room to essentially increase their money supply,
cut rates, whatever,
which they have been doing as DXY has been nuking from the tops, which basically just
means liquidity up and to the right.
So if DXY is going down, liquidity is more likely not going to keep going higher.
I was talking about Wabi's like thought process on, okay, PayPay going into price discovery
is a top.
Is that because ETH is bullish with USDC?
Well, it's just in price discovery.
You should be expecting pullbacks.
Yeah, so what I mean by that is I'm not saying,
oh, the moment Pepe gets a 13 bill, 14 bill at the top.
I'm just saying a countdown starts.
starts if you take a look at chain link for example right chain link topped against bitcoin
If you take a look at Chainlink, for example, right?
in uh august of 2020 and ever since that time period from that point all the way until q4 of
21 anytime chain link had outperformance or the slightest bit for the slightest bit against majors
the market would top and go to kingdom come and all coins would get slaughtered
by 60 65 percent uh i remember luna when it first crossed 10 bucks it hit 11 bucks and then
correct it all the way back down to four and that was when chain link had that big pop in february
of 21 um after defy had mostly topped you had had Aave, for the most part, finishing off its gains.
And you also had S&X Synthetix Network,
which was something that I was following last cycle pretty heavily,
top out around that time.
So if what I've seen over this cycle,
where anytime this one asset gets into price discovery
and the market tops within two to three weeks,
even with
Kiwi and Zerp, like if you see an asset double within two to three weeks and it's trading well
above 10 bill and the rest of the market is melting up, which is exactly what happens when
Pepe gets to the price discovery, why am I not going to take profits just because I'm greedy?
And I think that like, like, oh, it's it's it's still so early because my neighbor
still hasn't asked me about xrp yet it's it's it doesn't really make sense and i've realized during
all these local tops that we've had over the last year i it's always the same thing oh you're so
early oh you're so early and i remember in january when world liberty fi was buying shit coins
i think i lost like 2 000 followers bro just because i was so bared up and i was telling people
like why do you think it's so early if world liberty fi is buying shit coins they are
generating exit liquidity that is an exit liquidity environment.
And you saw Pepe getting listed on Robinhood.
You saw I get it listed on Coinbase.
Coinbase was listing just anything and everything, whether it was memes or DeFi tokens from last cycle.
They listed some shitcoin from 2017 called request network
that i remember that token when i first got into crypto uh in late 2017 and it was paypal
on the blockchain the ticker is req request network a shitcoin from 2017 and they listed
that on their exchange um in Q4 of last year.
And you start seeing weird shit coins getting listed
and weird entities starting to buy bags.
Remember Coca-Cola and Pepsi talking about NFTs saying,
wag me, we're going to make it.
And you started seeing Trump's son saying how it's a good time to buy ETH
at $3,200, right?
You started seeing stuff like that.
Man, kingdom come is knocking on the door.
And anyways, that's a long ways from now.
The fact is quantitative tightening hasn't stopped.
So until that stops, the quote-unquote cycle, the growth cycle for crypto hasn't even
started. Until that comes, and of course, following neutral comes dovish where the Fed
goes back to near Zerp and one batch of QE at least, then we still have some time. And I'm
hoping, brother, we can extend the cycle until like 2027. And that's the real thing.
QT doesn't have to stop this quarter, but I do think it's probably going to stop by the end of the year.
The fact of the matter is this monetary regime that's been going on in the Fed has been going on on three plus years now.
And QE only went on for about two. And I think we were only
neutral at a neutral stance for like one and a half. So every 18 to 24 months, 36 months,
there's always a Fed and chain. There's always a change in Fed policy. And every year since 2023, we've had some sort of shift.
In 23, we paused rate hikes.
In 24, we started cutting them.
And the next step is going to a neutral stance for QT to stop.
And I think that's like, I think that can be considered going up to the peak for this
local cycle, right?
You run up to ETH at 4 500 sold to like 320
btc to 130 140 we correct on btc by like 30 35 percent then they turn on the money printer zurp
um and you know what happened in previous cycles happens and that can happen all the way until like early 2027. You know, we don't have to go back to Zerp during Powell's reign.
The big kahuna comes in when the new Fed appointee from the Trump administration comes
That's when I think we can start looking at the market and saying, all right, are we
topped here for like eight months or something like that?
Are altcoins within the major is going to go down 80%?
But for now, it's probably just going to be the same thing
that we've been seeing for a while, right?
And Donnie, that others...
I don't agree with the part where you said
30 to 35% correction on BTC
and then they'll start doing QE and ZERP.
It's not like, first of all, there's nothing indicating right now that we're going to have a 30 plus percent correction on Bitcoin's chart.
Literally the last 30% correction we had was a DXY rally from 100 to 110, right?
With yield spiking.
So classically, that just means tighter financial conditions.
Liquidity is, you know, being extracted out of the market.
So it was a big correction that was imminent.
Plus, on top of that, we had a massive narrative assistance
with the tariff stuff, right?
So all of that combined,
and we only just managed to have a 30% correction,
and following that had an all-time high before the SPX
for the first time in history,
where now DXY is in a structural downtrend.
You've lost 100 for the first time
in three years.
I don't see what's going to
cause a 30% correction
on Bitcoin's chart from here
unless it goes literally vertical
to like 170, 180.
And then sure, you can...
Yeah, that's...
That's what I was getting at.
You're not going to get a 30.
You don't think so?
No chance.
You're not going to get a 30% correction from 130.
Man, I hope you're right, Donnie.
As far as that goes, like straight up to 170.
No, I'm saying if you're thinking of a 30% correction,
it's not coming at 130.
It can only come from a higher price
just because supply will take over demand. People will just sell more Bitcoin you're thinking of a 30 correction it's not coming at 130 it can only come from a higher price just
because supply will take over demand people just sell more bitcoin than there is people coming in
to buy it because it's gone up too much but from from like actual things that you know cause
corrections in markets like liquidity conditions there's nothing indicating that that you're going
to have some imminent 30 correction which, which again, that 30% correction
on Bitcoin was a 20% nuke in the stock market with all of the shit that was going down,
plus the tighter financial conditions.
I don't see what's going to cause that.
I'm looking at the Bitcoin chart right now.
I think you're onto something, Donnie.
When we corrected from, I think it was 74K, 74K, something like that, down to, crap, I'm sorry.
I'm looking at the wrong time frame.
But where I'm getting as far as like the 30% corrections and all that stuff, it's usually after bitcoin makes an egregiously
higher higher high compared to its previous all-time high so i think we would have to rally
like 50 from our previous high just as we had to rally 50 after um the little cycle before that
when we corrected from 74 down to 48. Those corrections
are what I'm talking about. The corrections we've had
from 74
to 48 and then
from 108
to 73.
Those are the kind of corrections that I'm talking about.
But of course, we'd have to trade egregiously
higher. Or it'll be
a 15 to 20% correction
at the most, not 30%.
Man, this is out of the conversation,
but the chart that I posted,
I'll put it up on the Nest,
with my avatar and Goku from Dragon Ball Z,
Bitcoin's journey to one million it's it's quite the hilarious conversation that's going on right now so i follow this one guy called
joe for dead cat and uh he runs some streams on youtube and he talks about like all coins and all
that stuff and both him his name is joe right and both him and uh joe carlos are arguing in the
comment section about growth about growth it is the funniest thing ever um they're talking about
like that's not what the data is showing right joe's talk joe deadcat is saying um so the middle class falling
behind on mortgage and car payments and the small businesses that closed down since covet are healthy
growth and then carlos there was saying the economy has been red hot and running at near
five percent nominal growth since 2022 and then this guy he's like all right now adjust that for m2 money supply cost of
living compounding cpi and debt and they're just going back and forth and i'm like damn dude two
middle-aged guys called joe are arguing over the year i don't know i don't know how carla
doesn't get fucking exhausted bro that guy is terminally online, just arguing on spaces or comments.
I literally, that's, that's, uh, I mean, that, that, that's just what you get. That's just like
what we, uh, see in the, uh, in like the stratify or fin twit kind of thing. Like you remember when,
um, the gold bugs came in and they're like no the s p can go as low as
3 800 and powell wouldn't bat an eye trump wouldn't bat an eye it's like dude if the s p gets to 3 800
you're talking you're talking you're talking total destruction yeah like margin calls. I think when we tested 4,800, hedge funds just got the signal to flip short.
And they had to stay short until we blasted through 5,200 just because of some algos or whatever.
Like they were about to get liquidated.
And so they ended up losing even more money after that.
And there were record amount of shorts.
I think the put-to-call ratio when the S&P bounced to 5,100, 5,200
was just as high as it was in October of 2022.
And I think that's what caused our spike, man.
Just like all those rich people thinking like, oh, retail.
What was that term, Donnie?
Like this is the record amount that retail has bought the bottom.
It can't be bottom.
Yeah, that was the best I've ever heard in my life, bro.
When they were trying to argue with us saying that, you know, retail bought the bottom in record amounts.
Therefore, we have to revisit the lows.
And I was like, okay, keep waiting for those lows, bro.
And literally, it was a V-reversal.
Like they were getting psyoped by their own community. i was like okay keep waiting for those lows bro and literally it was a v-reversal like
they were getting psyoped by the their own community
that that uh space that we had where it was us two apes versus 100 trad fi uh girls yeah we
absolutely shat on them bro they were dead wrong yeah and and that's that that was like the equity
markets man which we barely even trade um and what did we have we had the fastest recovery
back to all-time highs after a 20 plus correction i think that's what people still haven't grasped is that when the s p has
a correction of over 20 percent and recovers like that that is your confirmation that we are in a new
cycle we are in a new cycle just take a look at what happened with covid we had a near 30% correction on the Qs, 25% correction on the Spoo's. And after we recovered
back to all-time highs, which I think it took us until July of 2020 to make new all-time highs,
you were still at the early part of that cycle and you had about 18 months left to go. So
if I put two and two together, I mean, it tells me and you had about 18 months left to go so if i put two and two
together i mean it tells me we probably have another 18 months of this stuff left to go and
i think the four cycle bros are going to shoot themselves in the foot two months from now when
they think the market has topped because of something that happened in previous cycles which
doesn't really apply to this cycle and they're just going to end
up shooting themselves in the foot i think donnie to be to be honest like i just can't see this
market topping for a significant period of time in two months yeah unless unless you're calling
for impending doom then yeah that's literally it so unless your thesis is some sort of impending doom
Yeah, that's literally it.
So unless your thesis is some sort of impending doom,
and you're right, then yeah, I just can't see it, bro.
Honestly, I think it's going to last like 6 to 18 months minimum.
And a lot of the people who actually are predicting doom,
they're just like putting a blind eye towards the things
that the US is really trying to push, like AI.
It's not even mentioned in any of their work.
They're just putting a complete blind eye
into one of the most disruptive technologies
in the history of technology
and not accounting for it whatsoever in their thesis.
And what they're trying to do in the US,
pushing that sector, deregulating it,
and everything that goes around that. Crypto does actually tie into that as well and the whole digital era
and they're just predicting impending doom so i don't know i guess we'll see
yeah fear uh fear sells man fear sells and they still get a lot more engagement than bull posts for whatever reason. Yeah, the market is addicted to doom, bro.
Yeah, and then Robert Kiyosaki, Yamasaki,
starts saying, crash is incoming, like I've told you guys.
Yeah, yeah, they'll throw in some crazy length of like,
this is a 40-year trend that's coming to an end or something like that
and it's just i don't know people just love it yeah bro i could write some i could write some
bearish bro and i could get some crazy engagement bro word it nicely you know write out the thesis
but it's just there's literally nothing to be that concerned about
yeah yeah there's always like problems and all this kind of stuff but we just know that they're not going to let it go down and my view is that when they're this close to a technological
breakthrough that i don't want to go through like another 30 minute cook i actually have to go but
when they're this close to a technological breakthrough with AI, they're going to do anything to kick the can down the road
and achieve this discovery.
That's what I believe.
They're not going to let it stop and go through a 10-year reset now
right before something so important as a technological breakthrough.
No chance.
chance that's right man well guys we've uh talked about a lot of interesting stuff today i want to
That's right, man.
thank donnie i want to thank louis i want to thank kre i want to thank chill i want to thank paulos
for uh coming on up and talking shop with me but ladies and gentlemen if this is your first time
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i'll go ahead and make a tweet after this as i always do showcasing the replay so guys thank you
all so much shout out to my lord and savior jesus christ for allowing me another day of health
to talk markets with you all thank you all so so so very much donnie thank you brother kre all the
other guys that participated on the
panel. I'll see you all in the next one. Take care, everyone. Be safe out there. Don't press
the leverage button too much. And I'll see you later. Take care, guys. Peace. Thank you. Did you pay off? I know it's worth nothing.
Did you pay off?
Did you pay off?
Point something, sign like a string,
and then we're talking to now.
Pointing inside, I would have read that I would find it.
So can't be right, I am not in pain Just me
And now it's worth it
I'm not in pain
I'm not in pain
Oh, I can't
I'm not in pain Oh I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm hate. I'm thirsty. I feel so hot now inside.
I was reaching me.
Showing me up with us, they so can dance with me.
I'm so mean.
I'm so mean.
I'm so mean.
I'm so mean.
I'm so mean.
I'm so mean.
I'm so mean. I'm so mean.頑張れ ラビー入れたパパありません
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