Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
Market Talk- 85k btc!INSANE pumps across the market! Are the Lows in?
Recorded: March 14, 2025 Duration: 1:37:51Space Recording
Short Summary
The discussion highlights potential growth in various crypto assets, with expectations of bullish trends in the coming months. Key points include the resilience of certain assets despite market declines, the potential for liquidity shifts, and the anticipation of macroeconomic changes that could drive growth. The conversation also touches on the impact of regulatory clarity and the role of strategic reserves in shaping market dynamics.
Full Transcription
Be best because you're only a man and a man's got to bring to take it
Try to believe before the going gets wrong that you've got to hate to make it
history repeats its all trying to succeed
never stop that sure you want and you can have your dream
Oh my life oh wow
Cause you love to be in,
oh, you're like to stand out.
Oh, you're not a cloud,
with it all to the kids,
try your best to win
all your time to tell
when you're one like standing there.
You're the final man.
You're the best.
but I'm going to keep you down.
You're the best.
You're keep you down.
You're going to keep you down.
Oh, my God.
You try.
I don't know.
Nothing to go to me.
A lot.
You try.
The next stop.
Can you go?
Do you wait so far?
The back you tell.
Listen to the song.
I'm going to feel.
The great what you see?
The best one.
My friend.
I'm the best.
Like that.
I'm like that.
I'm like that.
Oh, you're.
Yo, what's going on, chugging.
Happy Friday.
I just got done chugging protein shake.
You guys know my favorite.
It's the cookies and cream flavor from muscle meds.
A bit of a tip, right, before you blend in your shakes.
And this is meat protein, by the way.
We don't do soy protein around here or weight protein,
which is just equally as soy as soy protein.
But either way, you want to add agave honey
and also mix in some cacao nibs.
to your shake, two scoops of muscle meds, cookies and cream.
Boy.
It's a gourmet sweet treat.
It is a delicacy.
But, man, Matt, Donnie, Josh, welcome, welcome.
Welcome back to Market Talk, guys.
I'm your host, Wabi.
We're going to go ahead and talk about the markets.
Equity markets for the first time in two weeks are actually closing in the green.
Am I saying things correctly here?
Geez, are we back?
Are we going to rip back up to new highs, Matt?
Are we?
I hope so.
I hate being a bear.
I hate being sidelined.
I hate being cautious.
And I'm talking alts, right?
We all know BTC is in a completely different asset class of its own.
We all know when people say, why are you so bearish if BTC is still above 80K?
It's because most people trade alts and alts aren't really showing that much life at all whatsoever.
I mean, Farquins up 50% from its low that it hit earlier this week.
You always have some sort of bounces.
I think...
The biggest thing that we have to look out for before we even talk about flipping the yearly open on majors is the monthly open.
We have to flip the monthly open on the weekly.
That's the first step.
And then we can talk about reclaiming February highs and the yearly open and stuff like that for alts, four all coins.
But...
If you're bullish on alts, you have to look at the NASDAQ.
The NASDAQ has to flip the yearly open, has to flip the monthly open, and then we can go on from there.
And we need to see some bullish price action on Coinbase stock, on MSTR stock, on hood stock.
And I mean, I still have a feeling that the market's probably going to be consolidating a lot longer than we think.
But...
That is all up to what the Fed says.
If the Fed stops quantitative tightening,
and more importantly than anything,
and this is something that Tommy brought up
during our afternoon call earlier today.
Shout out to Tommy who caught this entire move
after absolutely nailing, nailing that rotation from hype
at $3, selling the top at almost 30,
and rotating that into Hey, Anon.
at a dollar and selling Hey, Aon, just under 20 bucks.
So not the exact top, but nonetheless, it was a savage rotation.
Then rotating that into Alibaba and to some other Chinese stock names while shorting U.S. indices, man.
Tommy is perhaps one of the most interesting.
underrated accounts in this entire app.
Shout out to Tommy.
And you know what's crazy?
You know what's crazy?
Some of the moves that he's pulled out on some of the puts that he putt on, funny to say puts,
is while Tommy is injured.
Most people, when they're injured and can't even move, they're just focused on resting and sleeping.
But Tommy continues to be a savage on the buttons.
Shout out to Tommy.
Tommy, if you're listening to this man, my hope.
I'm not.
I hope, brother, that you don't consider this glazing session too extreme.
But shout out to Tommy nonetheless.
Either way, man, I'm grateful to be here with you all.
And it's been quite the journey over the last few years.
And Donnie, shout out to you as well.
You've been so consistent on these spaces.
I want to take some time just to show some gratitude
because we can tell markets all day long.
But sometimes I just want to have
an actual real conversation, right?
Us men, we bond over the power of friendship.
You know about the power of friendship, guys?
Let me teach you a lesson.
The power of friendship.
It's a long and detailed journey.
And Donnie has joined these spaces, I think,
during the week of the election when these AI tickers started to go really crazy, man.
And Donnie really, really showed his skill set in these markets.
I think it was that trade, Donnie, going from cents, which probably...
which pulled out like a 12 x in a day and you're like wabi you gotta buy peanut you got to buy
peanut mate at like 120 mil and within a week it was trading at three four billion dollars my
goodness man my goodness my goodness my goodness
Shout out to you, Donnie. The AI trade was magnificent, and I'm pretty sure it's going to come back once Nvidia actually carves out a bottom and starts going on the path to new highs.
But shout out to you, Donnie, man. I appreciate the consistency that we've had here on these shows.
and let's go on ahead and um talk markets now guys but before we officially get started before we
officially get started if you guys can go ahead and do me one small tiny favor only takes a few
seconds only takes a few moments doesn't take that much effort and it would be a nice
friday gift right we all know
going to the end of the week typically fridays thursdays there's not much volume uh on streams not much
volume on x not much volume on youtube overall right just media overall people tend to wind down
going into thursday for those you that are here if you can do me one small favor i always ask this
of you here on our spaces or even on our youtube which i've been uh hopping on the stream on market
check over the last week or so if you guys
If you guys can go ahead and click the Spaces tab, once you click the Spaces tab, you'll see
a little link above that says X.com slash I slash spaces.
yes and go ahead and click that link i want you to do this one tiny favor for me guys
if you guys and go ahead smash up the like button and most importantly this is going to
absolutely crush the x algorithm and it'll help bring more eyes more ears to show into the brand
it doesn't go ahead and click the repost button smash the repost and retweet button whatever you want to call it
And I'll be forever grateful, forever grateful for you guys.
And more than anything, it helps please our tech overlords that demand these things to be done.
So if you're a market talk and joy, if you're a market check and joy, if you're a BB enjoyer, go ahead and show some lots of space, as that'll be much, much appreciated.
So we're going to go ahead and get the show on the road.
We're in rant and banter about all things, crypto markets. So, yeah.
We have FOMC next week, but more importantly, we have the B-O-J rate decision.
Tommy mentioned that, and I think that really is important, right?
Whether the Bank of Japan raises rates or not, that is going to be a significant headwind or tailwind, right?
And for the first time, it seems in, you know, for about a month, Trump did not mention anything about tariffs.
Right.
It's quite beautiful. I think I saw someone talk about that. But yeah, let's go ahead and rant and banter.
I'll start off with Matt. He posted something up on the nest.
Matt, what's going on, man? What are your feelings going into next week? We have the B-O-J meeting.
We have FOMC. I haven't taken a look at the rate projections. I'm not...
I'm not sure if they're going to be cut, but they are expected.
The probability of rates being cut are slowly increasing for the May meeting, I believe so.
And, you know, I'll say this, Matt, I'll say this.
When you start to have quarterly performances across a few assets that used to be alpha, right, like Tesla, Tesla is on route for having one of the worst Q1s ever.
I think it's down like 30 plus percent year to date, despite the little pumpsky that we had today across the markets.
Hell, I'll even give some grace, I'll give the benefit of the doubt for something like an ETH, which is essentially a tokenized version of IWM, having the worst Q1 in history and four straight down red, red monthly candles.
And I am leaning towards a grace period sometime in Q2 for at least an echo bubble bounce, but of course...
That all entails on whatever kind of volatility that we get going into the end of the month.
So once again, we have FOMC, but more importantly, the BOJ decision here.
So Matt, floors are yours, brother.
How are you?
Thanks for coming back on the show.
Looking forward to the discussion, man.
It's always nice having you on the show.
I think his iPhone is messing up, man.
That's wild.
I also have an iPhone 15 Pro.
So hopefully mine doesn't start, like, bugging out or whatever.
I think they released another iPhone, the 16E.
Or maybe that's the iPhone that released a couple of months ago,
and they're just doing more marketing for it.
But Matt, what's going on, brother?
Matt, you there.
Yeah, yeah.
Oh, there we go.
Yeah, beautiful.
I think that the low is absolutely in.
I think we were, you know, we were talking a week ago about,
see...
support getting restricted to 39 or roughly a whole stepping in defend support and buying up the dip it really feels like accumulation and then we saw a beautiful bullish divergence on the one week chart or excuse me on the one day chart so that was that was a nice
that was a nice opportunity, a nice signal like, hey, if you've been waiting for exhaustion,
if you've been waiting for sellers to blow their wad, then this looks pretty good.
And I think that's probably going to stay, honestly, the local low.
This week...
I mean, excuse me, next week, the FOMC.
I would not be surprised, though, if J-PAL says something rather hawkish, rather bearish, something
like you can imagine the reporters in the room asking him like, hey, what do you think
about this negative 10% correction on broader markets?
And what about the stock market?
And then, of course, J-PAL is going to say something like, well, you know, the Fed,
we don't care about the stock market.
And then down we go again.
But it'll be something silly like that.
Okay.
But that's okay.
I think, again, I think the local ozone, that bullish divergence looks really good.
You might get a second chance, call it Thursday or Friday next week, to buy as close to 80K as possible.
You know, call it putting in this right shoulder on the inverse head and shoulders.
Yeah.
You could absolutely get a third beautiful entry next week.
But yeah, you got to be happy.
You got to be pleased with what you saw.
Every bear came out of the woodwork talking about 73K, 68K, 5K,000, like, you know, all the ridiculous price targets.
And we never whicked and closed below 76K once.
And that's a price that we had been talking about for weeks and weeks and weeks.
Bulls did not want to see price fall through the 50-week moving average.
You got an intraday midnight wick.
close to it, but nothing close to closing below it.
And that's great.
That's exactly what you want to see.
Support being respected, both stepping into buy the dip.
And now, instead of a multi-day, now a multi-week accumulation.
So it's a beautiful thing.
I think we can breathe a small sigh of relief.
Matt, MSTR, man.
Thoughts of thoughts on MSCR.
I mean, you know, it's going to be, yeah, it's going to be beta.
It's going to continue to be beta to Bitcoin.
So if Bitcoin has a 4% day, expect MSTR to have an 8, you know, both to the upside and the downside.
That's, you know, there's so many, there's so many people playing options on MSTR as well that every move gets exacerbated.
Yes, please.
Is there an option?
Not like an actual options contract, but you know how...
On your brokerage, right?
Like you're able to buy ETHU, which is basically like levered ETH without the list, without the risk of getting a margin call compared to like an options contract.
Yeah, no expiring.
I mean, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Is there something like that for MSTR or?
Yes.
Yes, MSTX, I want to say.
And MSTU, I want to say.
Yep.
I mean, yeah.
It's.
No, I see exactly what you're, I see exactly what you're saying.
I mean, B.
I mean, MSTR is, is, is leverage on Bitcoin.
So MSTU, MSTX is like leverage on leverage on Bitcoin.
And I mean, yeah, you time it right.
You, you know, you look like a king.
But I mean, boy, if you bought that stuff, if you were buying the leveraged.
uh ms t r in november in december in january in february you are out you're done like it doesn't
even matter if there's no expiry you're negative 70 negative 80 negative 90 percent underwater
so that's the real danger of it if you time the bottom you know a local bottom with umstc x or msd you
know amazing more power to you that's you know
You've got nothing but smiles for days, but that's the risk.
That's the risk, right?
Yeah.
I mentioned MSTR, by the way, MSTR-type version.
Yeah.
Similar to ETHU.
I was on market check yesterday.
Yeah, I was on market check yesterday.
And I mentioned to one of the guys,
can you chart Solana from the lows and MSTR from the lows?
And they're both up, or they were both up from bottom to top,
roughly the same amount, about 3,500 percent,
which is insane, man, in just over two years.
Like, those are some dot-com bubble-type gains.
And the thing is, they were easy bets.
They were long bets in time, whether as most things, right, during this, during this,
I guess bull market, if you want to call it that, bull market, rotational market,
coin picker and stock pickers market, it's mostly been rotational, right?
Yeah.
It's mostly been rotation.
If you remember in the first half of 23, it was all about like EV companies during that
echo bubble bounce, there were like a lot of electronic vehicle companies.
I think one of them was like...
Sure, sure.
Yeah.
And...
lucid and even the scam one and yeah yeah yeah yeah and then like the second half of 23
was mostly going to be about AI related things I think the AI trade was made aware like globally
during the summer of 2023 I think that was when like all right this thing is here to stay it's
probably going to like rip into price discovery so
Yeah, I think so the odd thing about this, I mean, I know, no, look, I'm bullish. I'm bullish on 2025. I'm bullish on Bitcoin. But the later you go in the cycle,
No, I know no one wants to hear this, but the less you want to be way out on the risk curve
on the leverage stuff. Yeah, you're right. If you hit a leveraged Bitcoin or leveraged
MSTR in 2023 or 2024, you killed it. You're golden. But in now here in late 2024 and
early 2025, boy, you, you know, if you think, if you.
If you think it's at all possible that there might be a bear market in six months or a year from now, if you think it at all possible that four-year cycle is still in the room with us, if you think it's at all possible that bull markets don't go up forever.
Like, yeah, you got to be thinking of it like, all right, well, when are you actually going to get out of the leverage stuff?
I think the four-year cycle is done.
I don't think that would apply it anymore.
I, I, I, hear me out.
Okay, yeah, please, please, yeah.
I don't really think the four-year cycle applies because every midwit, every like,
left-curved person that screams the same narrative, that screams the basement, that has the
sole, you know the soy jack face, that meme with the bald-headed guy on his computer,
and he has his mouth open and he has his, he has his hands up and all that stuff.
Like, it's like, oh my girt, Black Rock is buying my bags.
Like, dude, Black Rock is going to buy, pump the price, and then distribute on you while they're shorting the piss out of it during a multi-month range that can consist of 30 to 40% drawdowns, right, in between.
Right.
And I think to myself, Matt, where we're at from a monetary perspective, if you have other, and this is something that Donnie has mentioned, this is something that Prometheus mentioned as well last Friday.
So credit to them, I'm not perfect.
And honestly, if someone says that they have it all figured out, they're probably larping.
Myself and as individual, I thrive in pure easy mode bull market conditions, right?
It's you against your P&L, not you against...
Not your tweets against what other people have to say about the market, right?
CT is mostly like people ranking other people because they're too bullish or too bearish.
But either way, I digress.
If we look at where other central banks are in their monetary policy and fiscal spending
and all that stuff, they're going into a period of easing, whether as us, we're going
into that last period of tightening.
So if I see Trump on his tariff war, whatever situation he has going on, if rates are
still where they're at, right, somewhat elevated, if we're still continuing quantitative
tightening, of course, more pain is due.
The conditions are still more favorable to pain, especially coming off of a sugar high through assets like MSTR, like Nvidia.
like Coinbase stock over the last few years, but I don't necessarily think that that drawdown is going to last as much as 2022, which was a 10-month bare market, right?
Or a five-month bare market, depending on what tech stocks you bought like Netflix and a few others that actually bottomed out in June, right?
So...
Maybe, but you got it, but we have to admit, like...
I'll finish here, Matt. I'll finish here.
Okay, go. Okay.
And I just think at the very least, where we could just replicate an extended version of what we went through last year, kind of like in a huge range, but the drawdown is...
Probably going to be a little bit more, right?
Maybe like a 40% drawdown from the top.
And then we slowly curl up as monetary policy in the U.S. changes, right?
Like I just don't see how we're in choppy, bearish-ish conditions across equities and broader risk on markets.
And then we're still going to continue that trend when policy reverses.
I would beg to differ, as a matter of fact,
especially given the flows that have gone into BTC,
specifically for BTC, that could actually hold up priced
to a significant level.
Mindy, mind you, mind.
I'm not, dude, I'm not calling for 200K.
I don't think BTC goes to 200K until like 2027,
2028, honestly.
But I just do think we do have a period of grace
or instead of like expecting,
oh, Q4 is going to be the top
because it happened last cycle
and it happened the cycle before
when, as a matter of fact, Matt,
if we just check...
the books right alameda engineered that in time i've been yapping on for too long so after
this after this topic that that we wrap up i'll pass it over to donnie um that second half of
2021 was mostly engineered by three ac and alameda and gray scale that used leveraged money
on leveraged money borrowing from lenders during a q e and zirp environment
And there was no institutional bid.
It was just a bunch of Fugazi money, right?
And it was already proven that FTX would sell customer funds that held BTC and ETH to prop up
chip coins like Seoul, right?
So...
That's kind of where I'm getting.
I think last cycle was a hyper-helicopter money tornado cycle where things just went extremely parabolic.
And the equity market still rallied on to new highs a couple of months after we topped out.
So I think just given the fact that we're just more tied to macro now more than ever, I think whatever downside happens during this.
end of the QT regime, that's going to be our bottom for a multitude of years.
That's kind of like my take.
And I'd love to know your thoughts on this, Matt, as I do want to, like, touch upon this.
Yeah.
So I know that, all right, how to put this just a short version.
I know the four-year cycle is a meme, but...
There's a good reason for it.
There's a really good reason for it.
Look, in...
In 2021, Bitcoin, S&P 500, NASDAQ, you name it.
They all topped out on the same week in late 2021 when Jerome Powell and the Fed announced,
look, we've been very accommodative, but inflation is too hot and we're going to tightening.
So, like, yes, I understand there was a lot of hot money slushing around and FTX and 3AC and
etc., etc. But truly, like...
If the Fed wants to kill the bull market because of, and you insert whatever justification
you want, because inflation is too high, or because we need to put pain to the rest of the world,
so it's tariffs, or whatever it is, if Donny T or the Fed or whomever decides like,
okay, we got to take the punch bowl away, they will, they can and will kill the bull market.
And that's what we're flirting with this year.
And we're all kind of the reason like, look, the reason why we're at 85, 84K and not 104K is because of the Fed and Donny T and his administration.
We're all waiting around to see if if these tariffs are going to start driving unemployment or if these tariffs are going to start driving inflation.
I hope not.
Again, I'm bullish for 2025.
But that's where it can all go wrong, because we best believe that these entities, the administration, is absolutely that powerful enough to give us another 2022.
May I remind everyone in the room that, look, in 2022, labor...
U.S. labor market never capitulated. We never actually had a big spike in unemployment. We never
actually had massive, massive layoffs and negative jobs reports. It was a strong labor market
throughout 2022, and we still sold off and had one of the worst years across all assets ever.
So that's the danger. Like, look,
We're not, you know, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, etc.
They're not trading that 10 PE and 15 PE and 20 PE anymore.
They're up here at 30, 35, 40, Nvidia and Tesla and the rest, 60 plus.
Like, we have to admit we are a lot closer to those companies having...
a bear market than just another four you know two three or four years of bull market bear
markets are healthy and natural and normal and they're only a matter of when not if so again like
just to wrap it up to put a bow in it i am bullish 2025 i am all in on bitcoin i want to see where this goes but
It is in Donnie T in this administration's hands.
And if they want to take the punch bowl away, they absolutely can.
Speaking of Donnie, we have Donnie D. in the house.
Donnie D.
Brother, I need a based punchbowl.
I need a punch bowl.
I need it to be based.
And I need you to inject some based opium inside of my veins, man.
I want to be on chain again, dude.
I want there to be messages of contract addresses, brov.
I miss that environment.
I miss him, Hajirara, putting out a cryptic tweet about some AI play.
Man.
That's where we thrive, Wabi.
Yes.
But Donnie, man, welcome back to the show.
What are your thoughts on the conversation and kind of that layout plan that I gave?
And, you know, the conversation that we've been having on these spaces over the last two weeks is kind of like, you know, it gives me a hopeful future.
And it's something that I've touched upon, right?
Like, when you get bearish or cautious, you never want to lose hope.
Right, hope for the future.
I am bullish crypto for the long term.
Crypto's not going anywhere.
It's just if Trump is on his little tyrannical parade about tariffs, shaking the market,
and QT still continues, I genuinely think when it stops,
it's going to be the start of a new bull market, right?
A Trump bull market.
Because since Trump got in,
Like, indices, specifically SPX have not rallied more than 100 points.
I think the most that we've rallied since his inauguration has been like 98 points.
It's mostly been down only.
But nonetheless, I do think the Trump trade is a multi-year thing and not just like a 2025 thing.
And more importantly, I think he's just setting up an environment where he can create his own economy,
create his own market, and look pretty damn good for midterms, which for over the last nearly 10 years,
most midterm years for markets are usually bearish.
And I don't think he's going to allow that to happen.
But Donnie, I know that was a bit of a word salad.
So I guess like what we can touch upon is kind of like where other markets are being more
looser and easier with policy.
I mean, we can just take a look at how the NASDAX have been performing against the
Hangsang index or against the Eurozone index, right?
Or the DAX, right?
Specifically.
So, you know, I'm thinking to myself, Donnie, what happens when QT stops?
That's probably the end of this mini bear trend across most of these assets in the U.S.
And, of course, crypto, despite it being a worldwide 24-7 trading market, it is predominantly tied to U.S. equities for whatever reason.
We'll love to know your thoughts, brother.
Yeah, so...
Where do I start? You guys were kind of talking about how if this could turn into a bear market or something? Is that what you were saying like from from this point or you want like you're thinking potentially a continuation of this bearish downtrend for a longer time? Is that what? So what Matt was saying is.
I guess the four-year cycle, what we were touching about, how like I genuinely believe the four-year cycle is done because if we were still following previous cycles,
we would not be down on btc close to 30 percent from the highs and most importantly sure
shit majors or alts right in the top 50 would not be down 65 70 percent year to date and we would
definitely not have leaders from every sector down 80 plus percent it didn't happen in q1 of
2021 or q1 of 2017 none whatsoever
And I have been an absolute dog over the last eight years studying Q1 and Q4, which quote unquote historically and seasonality, right?
And speaking of seasonality, it seems that this seasonality is a bit rotten, honestly.
Yeah.
I just think that like we're honestly just breaking the mold here.
BTC flows are now tradfai and most of the alt flow is from retail that have short attention spends.
And most of these tickers don't survive their season.
What pumped in Q1 of 23 didn't survive Q4 of 23.
Study roll bit, right?
Yeah.
I can say a few other things as well from last year, but I just don't want to
yap on for too long, Donnie.
But kind of where I'm getting at, man, is all right?
You're a cycle.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I think it's like from a macro standpoint when we talk about monetary policy, right,
and where we're at, one can say that we have a good year and a half, right?
Q4 of 2026.
And I just can't.
bring myself to believe that every left curved twat
that's yapping the same thing that everyone else on their timeline is saying
oh sell in q4 of the post having year oh you know buy these all coins in this sector
and it's usually the same five stupid tickers that are old all coins that have been out
that have been underperforming btc and they're just
mid-curve takes honestly and I just don't think it's gonna be that easy right remember last year
Yeah in late Q4 we were all expecting the Christmas pump and when that shit didn't happen
I was here live on these spaces saying bro like the Christmas rallies a Fugazi
AI is probably gonna be the only thing that runs into the Trump pump Trump releases a shirk coin the week after a
shit coin I mean after at that point it was fucking over it extracted so many so much liquidity and
from these other assets where it's like,
it's going to take a while for that money to come back.
It really, really is.
And, you know, it's, it is what it is, man.
It is what it is.
And I just do not think that a massive blowoff top
is going to happen by the end of this year akin to a 2017 style run or a Q4, 2021 alt-coin style run when
fuck i think i think i'm i'm going too crazy here donnie uh we don't have kiwi and zirp we don't
have kiwi in zirp we yeah can't replicate that kind um of price action unless there's some calamity
right like if we go into war stock market crashes 20 percent of day and a bunch of kiwi happens
it's just going to be more of the same stuff over and over and over again right where we need
Go ahead. Go ahead, go ahead, Donnie. I've yapped on for way too long, bro.
I feel like I'm Alex Jones here, man. Just like yelling into the mic today.
Yeah, no, it's just like, I want to chime in and then you keep going. And then I'm like, okay, new thoughts. New thoughts keep coming up. So it's like, where do I start now? But yeah, back to the four year cycle theory thing.
You know, I don't actually know the actual textbook definition of what defines the four-year cycle.
Like, I would just be, you know, lying if I were to say it.
I think it's something like it's actually from like bare market low to bare market low has to be like four years apart or something like that.
Or it could be the peaks.
I'm not too sure.
But anyway, we are actually still like on track if you look at, you know, other cycles and stuff, even in the stock market.
like if we just refer back to 2017 for the crypto run, because it's kind of similar, like,
dates-wise, you know, we're approaching April where that's actually where the market
started to rally, you know, to actually break out into price discovery on BTC, not just like,
you know, being stuck in a range. And so, you know, based off of that, we're actually
completely on track. And then you're looking at the other indicators like Global M2 DXY and they're
shaping up.
at the exact like literally it's almost scary at the exact same months and dates of that 2017 style with you know uh favored sort of liquidity source coming from china this cycle
So we are on track for that.
Obviously, if that gets like delayed even further, how people are thinking like maybe until Q3 or something, then again, would still fall under the four-year cycle theory.
Because if you do end up pumping after Q3, that's still the post-election year that you're having your cycle top sort of thing.
And then your bare market in 2026.
So it's pretty hard to break that four-year cycle, especially where we're at right now, we're on the verge of like, you know, global liquidity expansion.
It's more so just getting over this hiccup with like what's going on with Trump and the Fed and all this kind of stuff and their plans.
But, you know, at the end of the day, we do have the debt maturity that needs to, you know, be sorted in the United States.
And that is like, I think it, I think I saw somewhere about two trillion needs to be rolled over in April.
And then the large majority of the remaining like $8 trillion starting from July, I think.
Again, I don't have these dates in front of me, so I'm not sure.
But it's, you know, roughly around that.
So there's no way around that, that debt rollover.
So in saying that, then that would eventually lead to a global liquidity expansion.
The dollar would have to weaken if the Fed has to expand their balance sheet to accommodate this.
So it's either that or they let everything collapse.
And we've all like, you know...
kind of theorize that they're not going to let things collapse with, you know, how well
technological advancements are going. They don't want to stall any of that, you know, on a much
broader picture just outside of crypto and stuff. When you're that close to like, you know,
breakthroughs in technology and stuff, I'm sure kicking the can down the road is an approach
that would more likely take than, you know, having to go through a five, 10, 15 year recession
to reset the system. So,
I went a little bit deep there, but essentially, you know, it's coming to crunch time where they have to act, right?
So the liquidity expansion cycle is
more likely they're not going to play out there for that for four for your cycle theory
could play out but I was I was I was I was speculating while I'd be like you
Last night. I was like okay, let me just let me go through the whole cycle and like all of the points of sentiment that I can remember
and see like kind of how they've played the market and
Yeah, it's interesting you mentioned all of these narratives of like
historical trends have been
reversed on us more often than not the cycle.
Like starting from just more recently in September of last year, you know,
everybody on X and stuff.
And this comes back down to that I feel like we're more online than ever.
So like there's more people online on crypto.
That's why sentiment is like overblown to each extreme, bullish and bearish and so on.
And so in September of last year, everyone, you know, was posting kind of like,
This is a historically bearish month like, oh, we're going to nuke.
And then so the first week of September was bad and we ended up having a bullish finish to September.
So that narrative was flipped.
And then like you said, we had the Christmas rally narrative flip.
That never happened.
We pumped right into or right after the elections but got no Christmas rally.
And then everybody was like, okay, Q1, 100%.
That's going to be bullish, old season, whatever.
We ended up bearish.
And now, you know, the sell and may and go away sort of theory in my head is kind of like,
people are not expecting that to actually potentially be,
if there was to be a cycle top that's going to catch people off guard,
in my opinion, it's going to be May through to July.
Like summer is always bad.
May is always a selling period.
Yeah.
and all this kind of stuff.
So, like, again, that's another reversed narrative in the market.
I would think that people are thinking, oh, 100% Q4 this year, like, that's going to be like a blow off top if we're going to get it.
And if we, you know, if we stay bearish until Q3, yeah, yeah, I'm just going to buy in Q3, going to ride this extreme pump in Q4, get my bag and I'm out of here.
But it's like, you really think it's going to be that easy if they've flipped every other narrative.
I feel like May, especially like right now when like market is selling off due to fear and that fear can be like reversed in a snap of the fingers by the Fed.
Yeah.
I would think that the most unexpected outcome to where the most people are sidelined,
the most people are like out of liquidity would be right now, right? May, June, July. That's the cycle,
blow off top.
If you were to just like, you know, absolutely screw everyone.
Though I don't think that's the case.
I think it's more likely we just get a rally here in May and June, another correction,
and then the real sort of rally, potentially not in Q4, but maybe towards the end of Q4 bleeding
into Q1.
I think that would catch people off guard because if you start Q4 bearish, people would
give up, you know, all this kind of stuff and then you get the rally, you know, let's say
December bleeding into January and February.
if they keep playing these narratives like in a sneaky way.
So yeah, I was just like kind of theorizing all that stuff.
And like it would make sense from purely the sentiment speculation standpoint,
if they were to cycle top in, let's say, July, maybe bleeding into August,
to where actually you do get the global liquidity expansion like starting, let's say Q1 of 2026.
And that start, you know, by the time that liquidity actually starts to enter the market and stuff, it would be a bit closer to the midterms.
I think the midterms are in November, maybe November the third to where the market can have a recovery from this quote unquote bear market.
If we top in July all the way through to Q2 and, um,
2026 and then rally into that November the third date to where the markets, you know, have recovered and they look good and liquidity is flowing and stuff.
Kind of like how we pumped from the 2022 bear market low and 2023 was like kind of good.
Like that that would catch everybody off guard in my head with, you know, all of the speculation that I'm thinking about to purely sideline people and, you know,
not make it so obvious. Also, there's confluence to like June, July and those, that summer period
where like they could release all of these ETFs like Seoul, Doge, XRP. There's massive euphoria.
Like people are fomo, fomowing into the market because, you know, they've missed the signal and
you know, that gives them like a very prolonged period to accumulate through these ETFs until, you know, that later sort of rally after, you know, six month bear market or something like that. So I was just theorizing that in my head.
But because just so many things are pointing, like from what I've been looking at and posting,
so many things are just pointing towards May and June is going to be upside.
It's just a matter of how big, like if we get continued trends on DXY and Global M2 and even
gold here, gold is giving me signal because, you know, it's two things.
It's a hedge against uncertainty.
But if you look at the gold chart relative to M2, there is...
parts where like there's moments on the chart where gold actually front runs in two and it can be in
like in anticipation of like global liquidity expansions right people you know to avoid like inflation
having like a hedge against that as well
So we know that China has been buying gold, right?
That's, you know, it could be for both reasons.
It could be the fact that they're anticipating, you know, their own liquidity expansion, which it is overdue, and a global liquidity expansion, but also a hedge against like what Trump is doing and stuff.
But when gold tends to top, if conditions flip for crypto, what we've seen recently is you do get some sort of liquidity shift into this market.
And again, gold is rallying.
It's very close to coming to like a very high time frame 2.618 fib, which, you know, if this uptrend continues over the next like month and a half or so, it looks like potentially you'd come to that point of resistance around May.
Again, more confluence around May.
So, yeah.
Maybe I went on a little bit too much there.
You're good, Donnie.
My only concern with the four-year cycle overall, like if we want to go away from
crypto and just talk broader markets, right, after 2008, which is like a regime that I think
is completely different to past regimes from the 90s, 80s and 70s and 60s and 50s and 40s,
post-election years are often bullish, right?
Right.
And crypto people sometimes dilute and decay their edge by falling into normie consensus.
And like my concern is...
equities right now are not in price discovery and in 2017 if we want to go back there
When Trump got into office in 2017 the S&P was trading at 2,200 and then going into the middle of March
The second half of March the S&P was pressing up against 2400 right so you're talking to damn near you know
10% gain and we're down about
10% from the highs.
I think that's like the first thing that I'd be eyeing here.
Donnie and the first thing that I'm looking at before that happens is flipping the yearly open.
That is like...
So critical for that to happen on the S&P and on the NASDAQ, specifically the McNazdak, right?
And that's a term that I've used for a number of years, Donnie.
So anytime someone says McNazzy, McNazdaq, that's like a 25 cent dividend to me.
So...
The McNazdak is whenever the NASDAQ is red year to date, like it's below, it's yearly open.
It's the McNazdak because, you know, people might have to submit applications somewhere.
And ba-da-ba-ba-ba-ba-ba I'm loving it.
But anyways, someone's probably going to clip that maybe.
Who knows?
But that's my concern, Donnie.
And I kind of think, right, like on this expansionary phase, whenever we get it,
when the Fed ends QT and the BOJ stops with its nonsense or whatever,
and Trump stops with...
whatever tariff wore, whatever tweets he wants to do, whatever posts,
I think it could be something very similar to when Yanut Yellen was pumping treasury markets during those lows on the indices in Q4 of 2023.
And also various things like the Chips Bill that Biden passed, which was extremely bullish for AI companies like Nvidia.
And that set off like one of the cleanest 18 month, 24 month bull markets that we've ever experienced.
I put in that same framework.
Go ahead.
Go ahead, Donnie.
Yeah, I was going to say like, you know, we've had actually really bullish things unfold
for crypto, like the strategic Bitcoin Reserve, all of this other stuff that's looming in the
background.
And what I've been trying to like, the message I've been trying to get across, because
it seems that you're looking for like some sort of catalyst or some sort of thing to like,
you know, create that.
or aid in this like uptrend that we're expecting, right?
You keep mentioning like, you know, 3AC, all these guys.
But it's like when conditions are ready...
these catalysts and these things that you're thinking about,
they're already lurking in the background.
You're not going to know what they are now.
You just need to understand that liquidity has to be prepared first,
that sort of roadmap with no hiccups ahead.
And once that is in place, then everything unfolds.
And you get all of the catalysts.
You get these 3 AC type companies coming out of nowhere.
They're market making the entire market, all this kind of stuff, right?
So, you know, if you have the strategic Bitcoin reserve in the background, like, it wouldn't surprise me that, you know, when conditions are ready, you're going to have some sort of like crazy buy-in from the United States to like kickstart the market, paired with a market maker set up with, you know, a decent candle on the chart and everybody phomos in.
And that's the start.
You know, you're not going to be able to predict what that is.
You just need to wash these things.
like leading macro indicators to see if like, okay, are we really getting close?
That's how I feel about it.
And 3AC companies, we need more of that, brother.
They will come.
It's like we're literally waiting for regulatory clarity, right?
Which is very close.
And then we're waiting for like liquidity conditions to be prepared.
So it's like it's only a matter of time, I feel like.
Yeah, man, I tell you what, that's going to be a beautiful time at the market.
And I think like, go ahead, go ahead.
Even with the stock market pulling back here, right?
Like, this is actually a good thing.
We're seeing like real time inflation tracking data that's reliable, showing us that
inflation is down, which was the main concern of the Fed this entire cycle, right?
Get inflation to that.
2% goal that they have.
And this has actually aided, you know, that goal.
So the fact that we're like this low going into this next FOMC meeting,
it's kind of a good thing, right?
We've mentioned how like you wouldn't want the stock market like roaring and like,
you know, that's just going to, that's an inflationary environment anyway.
So it just prolongs things even further.
So I feel like we're getting towards that goal or that pivot point for this macro stuff
to actually really unfold.
And, you know,
after this FOMC meeting going into April and stuff.
we've got a whole bunch of economic data that they're more likely they're not going to give
some sort of forward guidance over those months of May, June, and July, which it's very key to
note that they're back-to-back months to where, you know, they can pivot, right? They have that
flexibility over that three-month period where they can pivot at each one of those months
based on, you know, economic numbers coming out. So like, I'm thinking April as those numbers start to, you know,
as the real-time data that we know now is actually positive for inflation,
it's going down, starts to appear in whatever the Fed uses to track these things
over like April or something,
then the market's just going to start pricing that in,
going into like May and stuff.
And you're already seeing people, you know,
speculating that there's more likely going to be some sort of rate cut in May.
So you can see the momentum shifting here.
And like,
We saw the same thing in 2023.
I keep mentioning it around October of 2023.
When we're in the exact same position,
I literally went and watched back the Fed meetings over October and December,
2023.
It's literally like very similar to how it is now.
And the market just started pricing and rate cuts ahead of time as the data kept coming out better.
And then,
you know, the Fed actually mentioned that they were thinking about three to four rate cuts in
2024 and in the market rip. So it's like, it's coming, I feel like, and it just seems to tie around
May and June. Plus, BTC is, you know, building a decent base here. If you just focus on like BTC alone,
it's really carving out a nice base here and there's a ton of support below. So, you know,
we bounced on the SMP. The FOMC is literally next week.
I think that's like, that could be it.
That could be the low right there.
At the absolute worst, 73, 600, unless something like breaks, which I don't think is likely.
Yeah, I'm looking at the S&P right now.
And since we bottomed in 2022, it took us two years to reclaim those highs that we hit in December of 21.
And when we first had that first local top in July of 23, it took us four months to reclaim those levels that go on to make those highs that broke the Q421 highs.
Right.
For BTC, it roughly took that same amount when it came to the ranges, right?
When S&P made new year-to-date highs, BTC shortly follows suit.
But in 23, it was kind of reversed, right?
BTC kind of led the charge.
Yeah, it led by 55 days.
Yeah, and so, like, if...
That's a long time.
Yeah, so if we peaked in February and if we continue to slide down, maybe to, like...
53, 5,400, or we just range around here, right?
We could be at new highs going into the summertime.
And, you know, with seasonality, right, as we've been speaking about, people say,
oh, dude, no, I'm just going to sell a man, go away.
And you look at prices now and it's like, what the fuck is there to sell?
Like, you already had a loss at this point, like,
If you actually believe in what you're holding, right, hopefully it's not some like random thing,
then you'll probably be bailed out by the market if whatever asset you're holding has shown a significant amount of interest when things are propping up, right?
Like, I think most people would honestly be better in developing an edge and recognizing that there's periods of risk on and periods of risk off.
rather than like trying to time certain dates right because bro the u p and now in this market
Going into the new year was incredible dude for coin went to almost three dollars man
AI 16z reached the market cap of almost three bill
What was that other one virtual's reached the market cap of four bill? Dude
Virtuals was in like the top 30 man
Yeah, and that had that happened in the span of a few months and
We had tickers going from zero to almost a billion.
Zerebro, Arc.
I think Griffin went to like 600, 700 mil or some shit like that.
AIXPT going from like 20 mil to almost a bill or just over a bill.
In two months.
In two months, that's obscene.
And I think that period will come again.
It's just a matter of like waiting for the equity markets to kind of like chillax for a little bit.
And it wouldn't really shock me now that like, you know, most people in this market are on one HP.
They're in their last health bar.
And this shit just honestly sends during a quote unquote, you know, worst time to be in the market, which is.
in May and June like that maybe that's when the next rally starts that I just can't see us go to new highs within four weeks like I just I don't I don't buy it I don't buy it this is like extreme chop we need some accumulation there has to be some price action done at these levels if you look at the election pump dude BTC was literally up only from 75k to 105k and
Up only, man.
Up only.
We had a liquidity hiccup after that.
I shared in the spaces.
Literally, I don't know if you remember, but this was December 24th, we had a spaces.
And I just quickly wrote this up because I was rushing, like drew it up.
It's very ugly, but.
We've literally been waiting for this setup since that date, Wabi, literally explained it of like,
we've had the liquidity hiccup that just occurred, you know, in 2017 as well, going into the inauguration.
We get the delayed pullback on BTC and we're waiting for DXY at a top.
And now if you look at how this has developed, it's literally so close to flipping a confirmation of, okay, this trend is continuing here.
Like you can't fade what just happened to DXY and Global M2.
You get a continuation of that trend over April.
It's done.
Like all the bearishness is out the window.
Oh, yeah.
I do see the post.
Yeah.
24th of December we've been waiting for this bro and like of course you can say like we've come down you know lower and all that kind of stuff old coins have been hammered you can't really like have predicted you know the trump token and all this kind of stuff but when you zoom out and you just cut out all the noise and look at the cycle alone we're literally waiting for this to play out like if you if you erase all the pain from your memory bank
this is still to come.
you know,
things get better very rapidly in crypto.
Like your whole portfolio,
if you're still holding stuff,
can change like within one week.
You could be back to where you were.
So it's like,
You know, right now the algorithm is really, really pushing like macro doomer posts only.
Like these dudes that sounds super smart about what they're talking about, like macro and stuff,
saying how it's all over and all that.
And it's like these dudes have been bearish their entire life, you know, if you really go through
all their posts and stuff.
And they're the ones that the Algo is shining the spotlight on at the moment.
I just don't see it.
Ben.
We can continue this conversation over and over and over again.
It's going to be quite something to actually see some of these L1 tokens actually break in real price discovery and not just like being in price discovery for two or three days and then reverting back down.
I'm talking about stuff like Soul.
Like I think...
Things like Pump Fun have extracted already so much from this market and everybody's already
been made aware of that.
I just can't see some of the same things that have pushed us in the all coin space happening
over and over again.
2023, it was about Rollbit.
If you remember that stuff, Roll bit in sort of like on-chain gambling, GambleFi, they
called it.
And then 2024 was Pump Fun.
And.
This year, I generally think it's probably just going to be some switch and liquidity as we're discussing right now.
And when that happens, there's always a return to fundamentals.
If you have 01 tokens leading, I have to give crap like ETH some sort of attention.
Because it's had its worst Q1 ever in history.
And it's down like 50% year to date.
Just going off of that, right?
I think there's probably going to be some sort of bounce at the very least.
And if you do get a lower low on ETH, should Endicies make a lower low, I think that's something that you just buy.
And, you know, I think...
Some people are going to have to endure some drawdown trying to catch a bottom, and it is what it is.
But I think, like, six months after the fact you'll be bailed out in a pretty big way, man.
What are your thoughts on Seoul, Donnie?
Do you think, like...
soul is going to catch that ETF narrative and that'll just like completely mitigate the damage that that pump fund does or like I think we talked about it last faces right like the pump funds and and all that stuff and I bring it up again because dude like pump fun is just it's a it's a graveyard now man yeah they're not really
churning out money as they used to and they're now putting out like rage tweets like rage bait tweets
like engagement form tweets yeah and i think people are just generally sick of it like they're
sick of that crap is there any way to like shut down pump fun or something like that
probably a cease and desist on their website like most of the internet like most of
crypto is honestly super fragile like almost our entire industry is run on a w s like if a
w s shuts down dude like no there's no uniswap like there's no hyperliquid or any stuff
like that and if something bad actually happens to eath then like this entire market nuke's
by like 95% i genuinely think so
All those stable coins essentially get wiped out.
All the liquidity cross chain gets wiped out.
So I hope AWS doesn't go down.
But pump fund could easily just be cease and desist, honestly, or like one of the founders goes to jail.
That's another thing too.
So either drill time or the site gets like taken down.
That's what happened to BitConnect.
Like BitConnect...
had a cease and desist but sometimes you have to be careful for what you wish for honestly
because the end of bit connect when they had the cease and desist letter that was when btc u was
trading at about like 15 16 k and that was the pico schmico top in 2018 and january of eth at 1400 bucks um
um so sometimes we have to be careful for what we wish for because just like bit connect just like
ftx just like block by and celsius it could mark the start of like the next down move so you know
and they and i'm pretty sure they hold like some soul left but i think like
Three to six months after that happens, because I generally do think they will go to zero at some point.
I think the market recovers within three to six months.
And during every single major downturn, with the exception of Luna, of course, the market tends to forget about that.
And...
recovers from it and people forget right six months after f tx we had pepe people were enthusiastic about
all things on chain a roll bit injective caspa
Same thing in 2018, when miners were selling all their Bitcoin and all these cloud mining scams were shutting down and stealing people's Bitcoin left and right.
And ICOs were selling massive amounts of Spot Eath and Spot BTC on the market in one clip.
Within three months, we were up like 50 plus percent off of the lows.
And within six months, we were up above 10K again.
So...
I think every major catastrophe always brings about like a new sign of rebirth, gigantic rebirth.
So if Pompon goes down, I mean, I think in three six months, basically under a year, we're going to be trading a lot higher in my opinion.
What about yourself, man?
Do you think like that stuff is going to stick around or you think it has an inevitable date with zero?
Yeah.
Yeah, I'm not too sure, man.
Like, there's two ways that it plays out.
I was thinking about it last night is either, you know, we get the euphoric landscape
in the market with all of macro aligned and, you know, BTC goes above 200K, all this kind
of stuff.
I feel like the casino would come roaring back.
And like, you know, it would be maybe we've only seen like, you know, 50% of what
the true degenerate gamblers are going to pull on, you know, pump fun in this chain.
Or, you know, that's kind of it for pump fun and it kind of dwindles away or they actually put like a hammer on it.
And then Sol gets to have, you know, kind of like a euphoric rally after that.
The only problem with that is like the thing about pump fun is that it did make the barrier to entry to create anything so like small and efficient.
Right.
So it did have its positives.
Obviously, the only negative was the overhanging cells that were coming from pump fun.
I was trying to do some math on it, like how much cell pressure they generated from pump fun
and how much that would have affected like the all-time high price.
I think Seoul could have easily hit like $400 on that rally if it wasn't for pump fun.
So you're kind of looking at how much did it hit here?
You're kind of looking at like a 30% cell pressure on whatever soul reaches the cycle if pump fun stays around and continues to be like, you know, dominating the narrative.
So if you were to go to a thousand, you'll probably only reach 700.
Yep.
And I think the only tokens that would have pumped natively on Seoul would have been with Popcat, Checks, Neon,
um jube warca yeah yeah it would have been only a handful of tokens honestly because a lot of the uh soul volume
came from pump fun like if you just even look at sole price like if you look at sole price
overlaid with uh like pump fun revenue right they almost go hand in hand it's it's kind of scary honestly
Souls tokenomics honestly suck, but for this cycle, it's just been such a good indicator for on-chain activity where we just cannot ignore it.
My goodness, right, I just saw some weird humanoid robotics thing on my timeline, man.
Oh, man, that is, that is some weird stuff, man.
That is some weird stuff.
That's the next humanoid robots.
Yeah, robotics, but it's like, how can people get exposure to that if it's not in private markets?
Yeah, yeah, that too, that too.
Yeah, I think like the older crypto guts.
people are going to have to develop their edge more and more and more.
Because if you took the same alpha from last cycle,
you just thought, oh, I'll just buy trending L1s.
When in reality, it's just been...
you expose yourself to the trending L1 of the season, right?
So soul in 23, suey in 24, an injective in Caspa in between throughout 2023.
And then in 2024, it was honestly just the suey and hype,
and that didn't come until the second half.
And you had to bid memes,
whether as last cycle, memes were kind of like,
not really as widely accepted from like normal crypto people.
They all hated memes, but now that all those guys are gone from CT...
These new heads that came in during the previous spare market or the top of last bull market, that's their recency. That's their recency bias, right? Memes. And what's funny is that like usually toward the tail end of a bull market, that narrative that caps off at that top is usually the narrative for next cycle.
Right.
2013, you had payment options going crazy like Lycoin, and payment options were going crazy in 2016, 2017.
NEM, XRP, Verge, those were like among the top gainers.
And of course, you had smart contracts, but that didn't really kick off until late Q1, early Q2 of 2017.
Right.
And during that top, all those started going crazy.
Then that carried over to L1s and the top of 2021.
I consider it early Q2 with Doge.
Honestly, I don't really count Q4 as the true true top because the quitty at that point was already like, it was already extracted.
by an extreme degree and it was mainly just like Alameda and those kind of those kind of market
participants market makers whatever you want to call them and now we have AI right now we have
AI and I feel like AI is what memes were last cycle where it's like
the majority of people that have been here for more than one cycle are kind of scared or rather
they don't want to give into that narrative because it's mostly just vaporware and credit to them
but it's just something that is so so easy in hindsight right it's very left curve not right
curve but left curve um you know that meme where it's like everything is a scam um with the grog
face and then the second one is like the guy with the hood and it's like everything is a scam
The Wojack face, like a peaceful Wojack monk.
And then like at the middle, at the mid, at the middle, it's like some angry meme.
I consider it like that, right?
Where what memes were last cycle where most people were just like, oh, that's just a, that's just, you know, a temporary thing, right?
That's what I consider AI.
And if you look at this cycle, AI is where like.
a good chunk of the gains have been made so if you're bullish on nVIDia and then some
a i i think it will come back sometime in q4 i i generally think um q4 late q3 is going to be like
that next opportunity um for a i honestly i i really really do fam
Yeah, it could be, yeah, it could be a little bit earlier.
You never know.
Like, it doesn't even feel right for the stocks to, like, stifle top here without, like,
some sort of euphoric catalysts to bring exit liquidity so that, you know, whales and stuff can exit.
When I think of what's like happening with this step right now, like I said, it feels like kind of like a rubber band of like this fear sell-off that's just going lower and lower and lower.
And when that fear does get wiped, you're just going to have like an instant reaction on the chart.
Whereas a typical sort of cycle top quote unquote for the stock market would be like,
I don't know, you've got all these companies like releasing crazy, you know, news headlines.
Let's say like Sam Altwin with chat, JBT, Yvonne with his companies, you know, Google doing shit.
And, you know, retail is rushing into buy the top.
And, you know, they've got that exit liquidity to exit.
But I feel like right now it was like, oh, shit, something's not right.
And everybody just slowly started selling from fear.
Not a true sort of, um,
textbook distribution setup, I feel like it was too short and too like not coordinated.
So yeah, I even think equities are going to bounce back higher like at some point this year.
They might take longer to like bottom out or break the high again just because of the sheer size of the market cap of the stock market compared to like BTC or something.
Yeah, that definitely did not feel like some sort of cycle-topping structure, everything about it.
It seems more like I just said, like a rubber band fear sort of hedging sort of thing, you know,
all around this Fed policy and Trump stuff.
Whereas like they're literally setting up a roadmap with no hiccups so that, you know,
we're going to have that clear runway, I feel like, whenever it does come.
I shared up on the nest a post I made like a couple of a couple of weeks ago or something about the meme coin total market cap chart versus like global M2 liquidity, which is just interesting to me because of how like accurate it was trailing.
You know, obviously it's like a three to four month delay for like this meme coin chart of the total market cap.
But.
What do you think we'll bring back the meme narrative, Wabi?
Because this chart, obviously, you know, it's paired to like BTC and stuff, which is, you know,
for the whole market.
So memes might not come back as strong if that narrative is like totally from what happened.
But I feel like they will come back and they'll be the biggest gainers, bro.
Especially like, I can imagine Doge, like Doge pulling some stupid numbers of the cycle plus the ETF.
And then, you know, how can that not?
bring back you know bit into the sector so i i think of like with memes you need to make people angry
right and in east denver last year people were angry that their VC bags were nuking while memes were pumping
um so i think right uh if the doge stimulus checks come in
people are going to be forced to bid
fucking memes,
and it starts with Doge and Pepe.
And honestly,
I think it would anger a lot of, like,
Like not to make it political here, but a lot of like left wing people, I think they'll just like start this whole narrative like, oh, Elon Musk and Donald Trump are trying to pump the crypto market.
And then like mainstream media will be heated saying, oh, why is this pumping?
Remember when they were talking about far coin at like 15?
They were talking about a far coin at 15 cents and it kept on pumping, dude.
Yeah.
And I think, like, if you want memes to truly do the same thing as they did last cycle, it has to be something that would capture worldwide attention.
And I think the Doge stimulus checks would pump memes to new highs.
And, hey, bro, like, I played SPX.
and other shit like Sigma and all that stuff.
If it comes back, then so be it.
All that stuff on Seoul is going to make new all-time highs in two months if those stimulus checks go out and we go back to lower rates and perhaps like some soft QE.
Um, that is what I think would bring me...
It's not even soft QE that they're going to do.
It's going to be like true balance sheet expansion, bro.
Whether they name it soft or hard, it doesn't even matter.
Like, they have to do it.
That's funny, brother.
But I think that'd be a pretty good narrative, man.
Like, I know a few people, um, not know, but like, I've seen them on the internet where like,
Some people on the left honestly hate markets.
Like they hate capital gains.
They hate crypto especially, right?
Because crypto is, yeah, crypto is mostly like conservative, libertarian.
You're the master of your own fate, you know, entrepreneurship kind of stuff.
And I think like it would create a hated rally for a lot of the population.
That's not even exposed to crypto.
And at some point, they will come in.
They will come in with those stimulus checks.
And they'll probably buy near the top.
That's how I'm thinking, right?
Definitely buying Doge with Doge stimulus.
Like, come on.
I think so. I think so. And those checks are going to be more than like 1,200.
So that's my take, man. On me, on memes and all.
I think they'll revive Trump token. And that's like the catalyst to send Solana back to new highs.
Max talked about that on the Discord. And honestly, bro, I couldn't tell you. Like, I'm not a genius.
I'm not going to rule it out. But again, if you have...
bro if you have low rates and stimulus and true balance sheet expansion which is my dubious take
on why this market cycle is going to continue on the way it has been where we have multiple
periods of risk on and risk off up until late next year right i think tommy is right he laid
that thesis out close to a year ago
And that is the true super cycle.
Multiple periods of risk on, risk off,
where you have risk on for about two, three months,
some distribution for two months,
some choppish, bearish action for a few months,
Then the death of volatility and during the death of vol, right?
You typically have a few on-chain runners that are sort of like flashes in the sky, right?
Like Moodang going from zero to 300 million in a week, right?
Then you had SPX 6900 and Sigma and all that stuff and giga.
So that's kind of what I'm thinking if these like Doge stimulus checks happen.
And I'm thinking here...
probably like late Q3, they start announcing that it'll roll out in Q4.
So you'll have balance sheet expansion, you'll have lower rates, you'll have all the
tariff stuff already done for, and all the contracting will already be at an end.
And most people would have already given up on the market.
So I think like Q4, that'd be a perfect time.
And in Q4, retail workers, they get more hours, they get bonuses and all that stuff.
And it's traditionally, historically, just broader markets overall to be an insanely bullish time period.
Except this time, we actually have like monetary conditions here change in the U.S. after contracting for three years.
So that's sort of my thesis and something more.
like prolonged if we want to talk about like how would memes come back because if you think
memes come back then you think that like there's a new notional buyer coming into the market
or a previous buyer that got wiped out from the market and now has some sort of bailout money
to get some skin in the game and i think it would cause a true true true hated rally just because
like there are some people in traditional capital markets
that probably won't ever touch crypto unless free money is given to them, right?
So it's sort of like slowly and then all at once like, oh, a couple of grand for free, or not for free, but like a couple of grand as like a citizenship check of sorts, right?
I think only US citizens qualify for this check.
And I can do whatever I want with it.
Cool.
Let me buy some of this crypto stuff that's showing some life.
And then word gets around and it's kind of like COVID in a sense, but a smaller version of COVID.
I think that's what we would bring memes back.
And I think Moonshot, probably some other app, probably goes into the top rank of the app store.
And that's kind of my take, man.
What about yourself?
Yeah, I'm just looking at, like, Trump.
I've been looking at it this morning, the Trump token specifically.
And...
I could see a huge foam orally on this coin if they actually started to pump it.
Like, it's maintained around like 1.5, 2 billion volume, this entire downtrend.
And like, it's actually been like loki increasing at points at each peak, at each like, you know, lower high, but the volume has been increasing, which is like interesting to me.
Because even on chain, it's maintaining like two, 300 million volume, which is quite a lot.
It feels like there is some life to this token.
Like if you look at the Melania one, dude, that thing is toast.
It's not coming back.
But yeah, this, I feel like this could really potentially come back.
I'm going to keep an eye on it, like just in case.
And like, dude, if this token pumps on Seoul, I feel like, you know,
When it does start to distribute or whatever, there's going to be a massive liquidity shift into like everything else on Seoul.
If they do pump it, I feel like that could be a pretty good catalyst for them because it wasn't a pump fund launch either.
Yeah, I think they launched via Meteora.
Yeah.
It was like a meteorora pump.
So no, but.
But.
It bangs to like, you know, sell on top of soul.
Like you've got a true liquidity shift into everything else, which is kind of nice.
I think I'm going to wrap it up here, brother.
I want to thank you for coming on.
I don't really see any requests for people to come up and speak.
And I'm also pretty sure that most of the people here are like the usual listeners.
But guys, I want to thank you so much for tuning into today's edition of Market Talk.
I want to thank Donnie.
I want to thank Matt for also joining us.
I know we also had Chill and Josh here up on the panel, but they couldn't really stay on for long.
And hey, you know, sometimes it happens.
Sometimes we have people on the panel that go on extended conversations.
And that just is what it is.
But guys, if this is your first time tuning in and you've enjoyed the stream, you've enjoyed the show for the last hour and a half.
I want to thank you all so much for tuning into Market Talk with myself and Donnie.
And if you enjoyed today's content, feel free to give us a follow.
Feel free to give that giant yellow square a follow.
We're because Bitcoin. We're an online financial media company that produces live streamed content throughout the week, multiple times throughout the week. We have various shows for everybody, whether you're new, intermediate, or experienced. Our first show is our morning show at 11 a.m. EST called Market Check.
the type of content that you can expect on market check are all things technical analysis all
things t a so really things you know displaying price action um lower time frame stuff mid time
frame higher time frame stuff and you'll usually see people like myself and a few other team
members from because bitcoin uh going through charts interacting with the audience and all that stuff
And then our second show of the day is our X-Space is hosted by me, Kingwabi.
It's essentially an audio version of our YouTube show.
You can always expect the usual same set of speakers.
And we usually rant and banter about all things, crypto markets, all things macro, all
things equities.
price action discussions dubious speculation narratives that that we see forming or that are playing out before our eyes and typically the duration of this show is usually about an hour and a half sometimes two three hours depending on the day depending on the volatility as the same with market check market check is typically about an hour hour and a half depending on the day
So we have something for everybody, guys.
We have something for everybody, whether you like audio streams more or whether you like
more video formed content.
And I've been joining Market Check over the last weekend.
It's been fun.
It's been really, really fun.
And also, guys, if you are looking for a one-stop shop community to join, feel free to check
out our Inner Circle Discord.
All links are in our bio.
I'll actually post it up here on the nest for you guys.
If you guys want to have a direct link to any of our services packages, you'll also have our
own in-house trading terminal called bb terminal you have various macro indicators and all that other
good stuff for you guys included with your membership and of course if you guys have any particular
questions you can always send us a dm i've posted a link to our inner circle discord up above up on the nest
We go on multiple live streams throughout the week as well within our Discord,
basically like private market checks, right?
We all do screen shares.
We all show our charts and go through a multitude of live Q&A stuff, whether it's
How are we doing?
Whether it's, can you look at this token or what are your thoughts on X, Y, Z token?
We cover it all, right?
So whether you're new to the crypto space and you're looking for some guidance,
whether you're intermediate and looking to expand your knowledge,
or whether you're advanced and you just want a community to call your own,
feel free to check out the link up above.
And don't forget to follow that giant yellow square that says because bitcoin.com
with the yellow checkmark.
And also...
Just as important, feel free to follow everybody up here on the speaker panel.
Feel free to follow Donnie, Chill, Josh, and also Matt.
And I want to wish you all a safe weekend.
Thank you so much for tuning into today's edition, today's stream of Market Talk.
I'll see you guys on Market Check on Monday, bright and early at 11 a.m. ESC.
Donnie, if there's anything else that you want to say, man, before I wrap up the space,
feel free to do so, brother.
No, I think that's it.
I can just wrap up what I said earlier in kind of like quick fashion.
I'm getting a lot of signal from gold here.
Essentially, it's coming to a high time frame resistance zone around 3.3K,
and it seems to line up with all of the other points of confluence we have for May.
You know, we've got FOMC meetings May, June, and July to where...
they kind of have to act or do something.
And some of the economic data is headed in the right direction.
So it feels like it's more likely than not they will, you know, act positively towards the market,
things that will benefit risk assets.
So everything seeming to come together around there.
If gold, you know, starts to correct around May at that high level,
first of all you know it's much higher in market cap now so a liquidity shift from that point into
btc you know makes for a really good liquidity injection into the market so yeah don't be don't be too
scared of these dips at the moment btc's kind of like forming a base and i think after after the whole
month of march you'll start probably seeing some sort of uptrain get built because there's a
ton of liquidity still left on the chart from 95K all the way to new all-time highs.
And typically when you have that much liquidity resting above and then you've got other,
you know, outside of the chart factors like we just discussed,
you tend to squeeze pretty hard when that day does come.
So yeah, keep your eyes peeled for that.
April and May.
Yeah.
You hold your cards and they push it, push it.
You can live in a balance or you can live in a snow.
There's no guarantees that you've got to gamble just like.
And it's changed,
You won't look when you don't want you
I won't be but I don't want to be.
I hear a gunshot.
I call down and maybe to be caught.
Whoa, great, strange,
when the morning comes,
we'll see the line and when the life return
We'll still the night
Oh, it's still the night
You'll be where you'll be on
And still the night
You're going to chase
It's straight
It's straight
And everyone you win
Everyone you choose
Everyone you chase
Everyone you chase
Everyone you
Every time you cry, every time you lie, everywhere you go.
They just never know.
It's strange, sky, get, when the morning comes.
We'll see the night.
And when the night returns, we'll steal the night.
And I'm going on the time.
See the golden song.
We'll see the night.
No, you can't know, still go to night.
You know, still don't know.
You can't know.
You can't know.
You're still a good.
You're still nothing.
You're still not.
You know.
You're not.
You're a.
You're a.
You're a deep.
Yeah.
And still the night, you're still in the corner.
And still the night.
You're still the mind.
