Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
Market Talk- ALL MARKETS CRASHING!? BEAR MARKET IS HERE!? ITS OVER!?
Recorded: Jan. 30, 2026 Duration: 2:25:32Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent market talk, experts discussed the unprecedented volatility in gold and silver, drawing parallels to Bitcoin's past surges. Key topics included Binance's billion-dollar Bitcoin buyback strategy, the potential for market declines due to Fed policies, and the impact of rising interest rates on both traditional and crypto markets. The conversation highlighted significant trends, growth opportunities, and concerns about project stability in the crypto space.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.ご視聴ありがとうございました Thank you. I can't remember anything, can't tell if this is true or dream, deep down inside I feel the stream
This terrible silence stops there
Now that the war is through with me
I'm waking up I can't
Now I see that there's not much left in me
Nothing can still but me now
Hold my breath as I wish for dear
Oh please God, wait for me
I think the world is much too real, it looks like that I've always feel.
A candle to hope to reveal, look to the time when I live, that's what it's missing to me.
Just like a one time novelty,ied to the shoes that made me pee
Cut this life far from there
Oh, my breath is I wish more day
Oh, please God, wait me Music Oh, Oh, Oh,
Oh, Oh, Oh, so music I'm going a man. I'm taking my hands, taking my feet, taking my hair, taking my arms, taking my legs, taking my soul, everyone's life in hell! so
Thank you. I'm Thank you. yo what's going on guys happy friday happy friday welcome back to market talk brought to you by bb i
hope you're all having a fantastic friday or saturday depending on where you are in the world.
And, man, let me just say the volatility on gold and silver is absolutely ridiculous today, man.
I think I saw a few posts on my timeline where if anyone bought any puts on a,
I think it was the double leverage silver ETF. They printed, and I mean absolutely printed.
I saw one guy with like a 1 million percentage P&L.
I'm not sure if it's, I'm not sure if that's,
that was photoshopped or not, but anyone that had bought any puts on the 2X leverage silver ETF made an absolute truckload, man.
That silver volatility and gold volatility is extremely reminiscent of Bitcoin back in 2017, 2018, 2019.
2017, 2018, 2019, and you're talking about two assets that are valued way more than BTC
by market cap.
And talking about crypto, right after the space, I think a couple hours after the space,
BTC just puked all the way back to close to November lows.
And then right when that happened, Binance comes out with a Seifu article
saying how they're going to buy
a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin.
And if their buy entry happens to dip below
more than 20% from their entry,
they're going to buy another billion.
So effectively, they have,
or they're planning to have
$2 billion worth of TWAP into Bitcoin.
It's probably going to be a TWAP, not necessarily a single buy order.
So essentially, a TWAP is when you buy in small stacks rather than a full clip, which
I think that's what Saylor usually does now at least you know he
usually just buys in one go on coinbase instead of very methodical and slowly like he used to do
in 2020 2021 but uh nonetheless man the volatility in crypto to the downside is insane and one thing
that we touched upon here on the show yesterday, which you guys should definitely check out the recording, is what happens to this market, crypto specifically, if metals begin to correct?
Well, we're seeing it in front of our eyes, right?
If you see a double-digit correction on silver and gold, everything pulls back.
S&P barely pulled back.
Uranium is also down i think the only one of
the only things that are up on the day strangely enough is uh micro strategy and um i'm assuming
that's because bitcoin had like an intra five percent bounce from the 80k low that it had today
uh lobby is about to be taken out to the woodshed oh my gosh prometheus just texted us
in the in the group chat i'm kind of dealing with um something personal right now which is honestly
insane but i won't get into it here on the stream but uh a little five percent bounce the 10 pullback um and we also have sandisk that ended green on today's uh session uh but from the
open i think it pulled back like almost 20 and that's that that's because of the insane after
hours pump that sandisk had like i think it had like a 30 plus percent rally.
And I know Evan has been saying on the show since he's been on that markets are probably going to be pulling back once Jerome Powell does the Fed cut pause. And we're seeing it right now in front of our faces.
And as far as on-chain, it's like the most mixed market ever.
Something catches a bid for a few days and probably like two to three days and then has a nasty pullback and it just never comes back at all whatsoever.
I did see a new launch on base happening earlier today i think it's called
molt molt book i saw a few of my ai bros talking about it and then like i wake up and it's like
80 mil so if there's even a hint of on chain a, the slightest ticker having any sort of good narrative,
it just gets bid up and most of the price action is completed within two to three days.
And you're seeing that on base, right?
So you kind of know that people are rotating now from solana onto base and we kind of discussed that um over the
last two shows as well how it's basically the same market participant and if you look at what's
happening over on solana it's really only again probably like two tickers um that are showing any signs of of uh of brett um i know that war token has been circulating
lately um and you also have a white whale that's i think white whale is up like 200 plus
off of the low but almost everything else that was trending got taken out to the woodshed,
had their cleaners clean and they got too far ahead of their skis.
So it's like this constant back and forth between Solana and base capital
back and forth.
And it's like,
you know,
if you're not in front of your computer at seven in the morning or three in
the morning,
four in the morning,
you're just not going
to catch anything it's it's basically it's basically like world war ii out there it is not
easy mode and most of us including myself typically make more money during easy mode
um it's usually only a few times a year where you get that sort of stuff so we can look
back at last year the the best time the best time to be active last year was between call it late
march all the way till late september so you have like a six monthmonth window of easy mode, essentially.
And in 2024, it was really just Q1 and Q4, call it late Q3.
So for half the time, these markets don't really do much for those that like to catch bullish momentum or acceleration, really.
bullish momentum or acceleration really, right?
Markets are forever up and to the right,
but there are only a few time periods
where you can catch acceleration.
2023, we can call late October
through mid-December acceleration.
You had things like Whiff, Bonk, Celestia,
Injective was also going nuts during that time.
Say, Sui, they were all going nuts in crypto world
in the crypt in the crypto space crypto land whatever you want to call it and btc pumped
from like 24k all the way up to 45 i think it was just under 45 i believe and um you know, the funniest thing, man, is like there was this chart where it showed CZ being, CZ essentially being pointed the finger at for money laundering and going to jail.
And then the market just absolutely ripped for a while.
for a while and then right when he's pardoned everything goes to crap i just find it really
And then right when he's pardoned, everything goes to crap.
strange how right as easy as part in 10 10 happens um like 50 billion from retail market participants
are just cleaned out market makers are destroyed and then since then any sort of breadth that we get in this market it's always sold by the binance bucket
shop and you have cz actually now tweaking in his replies making posts how there's this coordinated
attack against them and it's like no one no one really likes your exchange anymore like uh to my
knowledge at least the people that uh that i see on my timeline
people that i chat with everyone just they use dexes they use trading terminals they don't
actually go on binance or even bybit to be honest um people use things like like hyperliquid
um or they just stick to things like Coinbase and Kraken.
I don't really blame them.
I don't really blame them at all.
Some people have effectively just stopped trading on chain, and they're just dollar costs averaging into things like Bitcoin, ETH,
Sol, Hype, and Pump.
I'm not really too sure about Manite anymore.
I'm not really too sure about Manite anymore.
A lot of their team members are now leaving the team,
A lot of their team members are now leaving the team,
which is really not a good look for a project that has a mainnet
that hasn't even been live for a year.
You're talking about a token that isn't even 100 days old,
and you have team members already leaving.
So I'm not really too sure about uh
like the future for that for that token but nonetheless guys we're gonna go ahead and get
started got prometheus scott david got max up here and uh we're gonna have some of our um
other speakers like we usually do during the second half of the show we're gonna have small
caps tonight but we're gonna have matt and feel the other guys jump in during the second half of the show we're gonna have small caps tonight but we're gonna have matt and feel the other guys jump in during the second half as we always do guys but before we get started before
we get started if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space show some love to the stream
to the show some market talk to bb and the best way to do that guys is by clicking the spaces tab
right below and then right after that you'll see
right up on the nest you'll see a link that says x.com slash i slash spaces once you guys do that
guys hit the like button hit the repost button whether you're bullish whether you're bearish or
crabbish i really just don't want to partake in this market at all. And you're like, you know what? I'm hanging up my hat. I'm just going to step away from the market until this new Fed chair
comes in. I'm going to call him Big Brother Kevin. It's a younger guy. I actually think
the new guy that Trump appointed, I'm pretty confident that he is the youngest Fed chair that the Federal Reserve has ever had, honestly.
He's 55.
And I think when Jerome got put into office, I think Jerome was well into his 70s already um greenspan was also old
yelling janet yellen was also old so we finally have you know why you know why warsh is getting
put in yeah i think i think it's because he talks about bitcoin well he talks about crypto and stuff. No, no, no. He's married to the daughter of the Estee Lauder family.
Estee Lauder, like the makeup brand?
Yes.
What does that mean, though?
They're one of the richest families in the world.
Wow.
Yeah, I had no idea, man.
But, yeah, this guy, Kevin, I think he's the youngest guy to come into the Fed
as the main head honcho, the speaker, since Paul Volcker.
Volcker also came in in his early 50s.
But we'll see, man.
He talks about Bitcoin, talks about crypto.
We'll see how that goes.
I think at that point, Scott Bissendt's timeline about looking at the market just a few months
out of midterms i think that's gonna
kind of be the timeline right just put the blame on powell for whatever um pull back the market's
gonna have from here until april um and then this guy comes in and just starts cutting rates right
um they said that they're gonna cut rates with without batting an eye. So we'll see how that goes.
But nonetheless, Max, Prometheus, or David,
which one of you guys wants to speak first?
If Max wants to go first, I know he ends up.
I'm worried about falling asleep.
I'm sorry.
I'm just so wiped out.
Oh, okay, David.
You can go first.
I'll try to stay on, but if I fall asleep on.
So I put up in the nest, Coca-Cola has a bullish engulfing candle to an all-time high.
Okay.
There's also, what was the other one?
Oh, all the software stocks.
The IGV, denominated in the SM SMH is at an all-time low.
There's too much capital in software because AI makes it so much more efficient.
So it's melting down.
But how are they not going to pull their buy orders for CapEx
when they're losing their cash flow, according to what the market's saying.
Roblox is down 60, AppLove and Unity. I mean, Adobe, Salesforce, Intuit, the money is leaving.
And it's going into the low beta. You could see the money leaking out of bitcoin and going into metals
and then uh cz comes in with his bid only on bitcoin and you can see ethereum's down five
very ugly clothes on everything it's a monthly close and a weekly in a sense because you don't
expect markets to move too much tomorrow but there's so much technical damage in so many things.
And the only thing keeping Bitcoin up in my mind from taking out the trading low of $80,050,
$500, excuse me, then taking out that people have a $79, the $ 76 for sailors cost on this coin, and then the 74, 300 low of the year,
which gives you a bearish engulfing, is that volatility spiked a little from a low. But that
should dissolve and set you up because a fat man can't run a marathon. You can't run with a parachute
on your back. That's what surf sailing is, parasailing.
You just need a little more volatility suppression from the system, the call writers.
And then it's the big dump. You look at the big four. Bitcoin held up a little. Ethereum melted.
Melted, XRP, and Solana.
They're all disasters.
And then gold and silver.
Everyone's talking about the 35% drop in silver.
And we talked about and posted yesterday.
This volatility is so rich.
You got 120 vol or 110 vol, 6%, 7 day that was enough and then the funding cost bobby
did you hear that did you hear what he said he sent me a message i did man i did he said he said
six seven but i'm afraid six seven is uh is now a retired a retired meme for now. I don't know what six, seven means. I'm sorry. I'm OG.
so six,
seven is,
is a meme where it's like,
I think it was this,
this basketball player.
He was asked a question.
He's like,
I don't know,
six,
seven. And he does like something with his hands.
And,
that went viral for like,
for like six months or something like that.
And, uh, yes, it's, it. And it's basically like a Zoomer meme.
A Zoomer meme.
So I still don't get it, but let's move on.
So just about Warsh, there's only one reason he appointed Warsh.
Warsh was on the Fed.
Everyone who hates Trump wants to make more
chaos. And whoever they nominated, they would have rejected. They would have rejected Hassett.
They would have rejected Reid. You know, this guy, it's going to be tough. It doesn't matter who is
the Fed. It does not matter who is the Fed. The market is in charge now. I'm a big non-fan of Jeffrey Gunlack from
Doubletree. I think he talks his book way too much, but he says one thing that's true. Let the
two-year run the Fed. What happened to the two-year today? We're almost back through the lows,
and the Fed can pretend they're not going to cut. And the longer they pretend they're not going to cut, the more the dollar is going to go up. The dollar that's going to zero,
it doesn't go down. It's back in its range. And you're seeing the stock market doesn't love
a lot of growth. They like more tepid growth and more monetary support. Well, we got a lot of
growth and you're going to send the money
to the real companies. I'm not making up McDonald's. I'm not making up Coca-Cola. People
like that stuff. Robert F. Kennedy aside, the money's going there. Look at Merck. Pfizer's less
than a dollar. I mean, you guys are too young. Pfizer was the company. I mean, the army of the
salespeople, they were the like in search of
excellence company. Pfizer and Mark, they were the guy. And now they're like dead men walking,
but go look at them. They're slaughtering. And my main thesis is that there is so much money
that's printed. And when it's on your side, you love it. It's expanding, it's accelerating,
it's driving Bitcoin up faster than everything in the world.
But when it's not getting enough appreciation
in what it's buying, it will turn on its masters
and it will eat it.
And it's crushing volatility in all these software stocks.
They're getting annihilated.
Go look at Microsoft's chart.
Tell me if it was
upside down, you wouldn't buy it with both hands. It would be a bullish engulfing monthly candle,
except it's buried. It's a disaster, that chart. And if you look at Microsoft and you imagine where
it's really going, I mean, they had the guy from, not Schwab, Interactive, one of the companies,
I mean, they had the guy from, not Schwab, Interactive, one of the companies,
saying that everyone was buying Microsoft hand over fist yesterday.
It was pathetic.
Institutions aren't in.
Hedge funds aren't in.
It's just the retail balance sheet that's going to get overwhelmed.
And so as you see money coming out of NVIDIA's biggest customer,
and then what happened to Apple's big lift yesterday, goodbye. Meta had the big move. They didn't buy any shares back
because they don't have any extra money. And I've said, what do companies do? Four things.
They pay a dividend when they do, they do share count reduction they have labor and they do CapEx well we know Amazon just fired
another 16k for a 30k
we know that
Meta didn't buy any shares
because they don't have the money for their build out
and Microsoft
their stock's falling
the founders want their money
how long before three months
David not to interrupt but i find it so ironic that uh
i think i think it's like when you were screaming in the mic um and uh prometheus was like man
screaming into the mic what was it prometheus like the the microphone was like chipped or whatever yeah the microphone can't handle the the sound level it
literally starts cracking all right dude and then like a few days later mstr makes new lows and btc
goes from like 90 um to 80 i think like 91 92 to 80. Man, that...
No, but what's going to happen, folks, is...
That really is a story.
No, but I want to explain what's going on.
Enough screaming, okay?
I so appreciate you.
And by the way, all of you who don't listen to this guy,
you are throwing away money for your children,
your grandchildren, and your neighborhood.
Nobody talked about SanDisk on any Bitcoin-related space.
He has the guts to say,
you know, there are things out of our space. You can look and make money. You can always come back
when our space is in dominance. But he let you know about SanDisk. It was up a ton yesterday.
It was up even more this morning before it got completely rugged. Because the problem is,
if your biggest customer is Microsoft and Apple and Meta and Amazon,
Mama, and they're going down, it's going to be Mama No Go.
Look at Oracle.
Mama, NVIDIA, Oracle, that's $23 trillion.
It's $23 trillion.
That's a pishikaka.
That's a pishikaka.
And you've got all the software names.
And you've got all the software names.
The IGV denominated in the SMH
was a very favorable trade.
You do the software hardware, hardware software.
This thing isn't finding a bottom.
And now all that's happening is
it's now tractor pulling it down
or tractor beaming it down.
You guys are traders.
Take off the letter msft
now the reason why bitcoin got a bid in addition to what wabi said was you know uh binance is
trying to stabilize the thing but look at ethereum down five so what happens is when you
and this is also observable in gold and silver,
and why we're able to make the call near the top,
is because when you have an expected move, measure its volatility,
whether it's D-Vol, whether it's GVZ Gold, VX SLV for silver.
When you see the volatility rising, it means people are rushing in so hard
the dealers aren't going to offer you calls.
They're going to back away.
They're going to charge you a skew premium for upside risk.
Then you take it to a level that it's not supportable.
Nobody can afford it.
So you lose buyers, but you gain sellers because you're driving the skew up so much.
You create the paper supply, the equilibrium.
You throw in a
wash, you make two
things in a day. And that's how you got
35% down in an hour and a half.
On the other side, look
what happened with Bitcoin.
We had, you know, our
peak was Bitcoin denominated
in its own volatility, peaked on September
18th. You had two successive
weekly closes with no recovery.
Melts down.
The volatility dragged the Bitcoin down
because the volatility going down
drives the value of the numerator up
if it's stable or rising.
Bitcoin starts to go down.
It goes down so much
that people start having to buy puts.
The dealers don't want to, or the swing traders back away.
They don't want to fill those orders.
You spike the vol, it's like an air brake or a parachute.
You swell an anaphylaxis, you swell the vol, it stabilizes.
But look at the chart of devol.
The stabilizers got less and less activated,
lower and lower vol spikes.
You could stabilize the market with less and less spike.
When you're at a low of a price,
at a low of a volatility, goodbye.
There's no floor.
You have to spike the vol to find a new low.
But if you clean out that 80,500 under low vault,
where the hell is this thing going to go?
It's no floor.
Those were my thoughts on Solana
when Solana made new year-to-date lows.
So we have someone on our team.
His name is Sullivan McGee.
Is that a real name?
Is that a real name?
No, it's a name that I made up. up okay I think his cat's name is Sully so I okay that now because that could not be real I mean how about McArchibald you know
what about Gretchen I've never actually met someone called Gretchen but
Gretchen Whitmer she's the governor of Minnesota. I mean, Michigan. Oh, my goodness, no.
I mean, the state of Michigan is something else.
Man.
But anyways, yeah, he posted some stuff on Solana.
Not pretty?
Pretty?
Like, it might actually happen.
It might actually happen.
And I think what you've been saying, David,
how, like, the old-school volatility that people in crypto are used to,
that's moved on over to metals.
And, I mean, it's been playing out in front of our eyes
for the last few trading sessions, definitely.
Can I just say one thing before you continue?
It's very important.
Go ahead.
This site lets you see other things.
This spaces is not ultra dogma.
He will not shut someone down who brings up something that's valuable.
So whenever you have an idea, ask to speak.
But what I want to say is this gold and silver,
we're looking for the volatility to go lower.
We have the trading, the big drawdown,
but I don't think it's over for the price yet.
But you don't need a lot of new capital
you got to this level.
But where's the next big thing?
Because that's what you really want to know.
Where is the next place
where you guys are going to move your capital?
Because it's over for Bitcoin.
It's over for crypto.
They're hemorrhaging capital right and left,
vacuumed into gold and silver. But that's a poor candidate, because that was based on a lie,
that the dollar is going to continue going down under debasement. The dollar is going to melt up
as the yield curve flattens. Today, mortgage rates, adjustable, were only two basis points
from a three-year low, and everyone thinks rates are going up they're wrong where is the next place going to be it's going to be volatility in tech volatility in ai we're going to get an expansion in volatility
with the bear tail not the bull tail you can see it in microsoft the big daddy they beat they're
down massively over two days how about apple gap? Gap up, goodbye, down.
Come on in, come on in.
Oh, that's just a delivery.
So if you have your biggest customers,
Meta, Apple, Amazon, SMCI,
melting down,
don't you think those orders are going to be less orders
and more requests for proposals and they'll be canceled?
How about Oracle?
Look at Oracle.
Oracle at $345, they're going to build out a $500 billion campus.
They couldn't borrow $18 billion without cutting the stock by 60%.
And I like him.
What's this um narrative around oracle they call it a contagion or something like that yeah so i just app love and down 30
unity the whole anything in software remember brad gerstner came out two fridays ago saying
i'm the smartest guy i've got the performative hair, the performative t-shirt.
I started November of 2008 when the market was at a low, and I'm really smart, even though it was
all the Federal Reserve balance sheet blowing up. He said, buy software down at five times revenue.
When it was 14, it was expensive. It's cheap now. It's collapsed since then. The contagion is,
Now, it's collapsed since then.
The contagion is, if you have Oracle and they take on debt,
just like MicroStrategy, whether it's debt or preferred,
it's the same thing.
You take that on, and someone's going to hedge it.
No one's going to buy Oracle debt without locking in that spread.
They bought it at 55 off the curve,
meaning whatever the treasury yield was at the time,
Oracle five years were priced at 55 basis points more.
And we call it counterfeit collateral
because it was never worth 55 off.
Ever since then, credit default swap traders,
which are like insurance companies for corporate debt,
which is where I started,
what happens is they short some of the stock.
Because if the bonds go to zero
and they're going to pay off $1,000,
we're going to get the money.
So they short a little of the stock.
But the lower the stock goes,
the more they have to short.
And they can't find a bottom.
Every once in a while, the stock stops going down.
They stop shorting. But we're at $160. Software is just a source of funds for everything.
When you get coin below sailor's price, of course people are going to short strategy
to try to shake those coins out. Chano's got it right when he shorted at strategy 3x Bitcoin,
and he bought bitcoin as his hedge
but now they're just going to try to damage the company when oracle's paper starts to blow out
and it's not investment grade anymore they're just going to come for other ai date ai debt
it's just free money the credit default swap guys they're're just shorting. And the lower it goes, the more they have to short. We did more AI debt to fund the data centers than ever before in no time. You
didn't even have a chance to season it. So you have people talking about AI. We know you don't
need all that compute. We know that the Chinese, whatever, they got the,
you know, the more nimble stuff. The kids who create software, they're so freaking smart.
We can't even understand what they're saying. But we know one thing, when they finally got
access to chips, when it wasn't just controlled by the big four, and they could actually look at
the stuff, they're going to create software
like you have never, and the companies they're going to create, they'll make all the money.
But all this legacy stuff, it's going to deflate. So there's a contagion. And I mentioned very
clearly the last couple of days in March 25th, 1997, which is three years, one day less than three years, to the top of the dot-com era,
Greenspan raised rates by 25 basis points.
What happened?
We're at 1.97% reported inflation.
99 days after that, we lost Thailand, currency peg, went over to Indonesia, went over to Korea.
They all pulled their pegs.
Then it swept around South America.
And then 411 days later,
long-term capital management blew up,
requiring a bailout and rate cuts.
They cut three times after the first cut,
the market started going up.
They cut two more times.
The Nasdaq rose 4.5 times,
450% in 585 days.
150% in 585 days.
Okay.
When you don't cut by the rule of policy equivalence,
if you cut, I hate these scammers,
if you cut rates and inflation is rising,
stocks are going to fly. If you cut rates, inflation is rising, stocks are going to fly.
If you cut rates, inflation's stable,
stocks will go up.
If you cut rates, inflation's falling,
the markets are going up.
If you don't cut, and inflation's falling,
the market melts.
And I've asked everyone to monitor the behavior
after a rate cut.
After a rate cut, watch what happens to prices.
You've got to look at the Qs, the spiders, and the Qs divided by the spiders.
And when they did it last year, two years ago, September 18th,
and then November 7th, and then December 18th,
rates went flying, and boom, stocks did very, very well.
Last year, when they cut on
September 17th,
market went up a little.
They cut on October 29th, under performance.
They cut on December 10th,
under performance. This time they didn't cut,
we fell 2%.
They're
two times.
The dollar will go up.
Emerging markets, Indonesia had an all-time low currency.
They fired the head of their stock exchange
because the market fell 13%.
So what I'm saying is the contagion is a loss in one asset
leaks to another asset.
It's everything, everywhere, all at once.
So if Bitcoin is at its low and its volatility is at its low
and software is at a low and its volatility is at a low and yields are at a high and its volatility is at its low, and software is at a low and its volatility is at a low,
and yields are at a high and its volatility is low,
which I was talking about the move index.
Bonds will rise before the move troughs,
or VXTLT, TLT will rise before it drops,
but you need it closer to its low.
And what that means is when you start to see one thing and you're losing money, it's you're losing equity.
It's a margin call.
That was October 5th of last year.
You know, that three weeks when Nikkei's down 22 and a half percent.
Three days, excuse me.
It was a three-week period, but into three days, they lost 22 and a half percent.
And go watch these bonds here and go watch those 40-year in Japan.
And I said, and I said, I don't care. It was 365 on our time frame, because it was a Friday
when they closed. I said, I want to buy the 40-year Japanese in yen, no hedging. It was 4.1
basis points, 2,439 years payback. That's when you want to short them.
That's when you want to walk away, not at 4% with a population that's in free fall.
Just because rice was in shortage, they have some heightened inflation.
It's so much competition for the Nikkei, a 4% rate. For people who just saw their stock market go up eight times.
So you have stocks eight times more expensive,
and you get yields 100 times higher yield.
We're going to be losing capital,
like we lost capital from Bitcoin over to gold.
We're going to be losing capital from innovation over to fixed income.
And eventually you'll start to see lower volatilities that go low enough that Bitcoin can melt, that software
can melt. We'll need more time because vol just spiked in the gold, but gold and silver, they'll
melt. And the last thing before I give it up is I need to give you the example because you all watch Bitcoin. Bitcoin volatility fell on August 2nd of 2023 to 31.41, divided by 19.1, which is the square
root of 365 days, the trading year. That means you were not going to get anything more than 2%,
less than 2% in an expected daily move.
That's not enough.
Powell then signals I'm going to a neutral bias, no more hikes.
Bitcoin vol tripled up to 100%.
Bitcoin went up just less than that.
And what happened then?
Bitcoin vol starts rolling over.
Bitcoin keeps on traveling.
Bitcoin keeps traveling. Bitcoin vol goes down 70. Bitcoin keeps on traveling. Bitcoin keeps traveling.
Bitcoin vol goes down 70.
The vol is dominant, brings down.
And now you can't get this vol up
because people have other places to travel.
The money growth from the Fed was so insane,
10 times the high.
897 billion, 8.97 trillion in 12, 14 years.
Japan yen, cut in half.
That ocean of liquidity was an acceleration.
And remember, a negative times a negative is a positive.
Equity, Bitcoin, their risk assets, their negative duration.
They substitute for a buying of a bond.
They substitute, they absorb liquidity.
When they're having acceleration, that's a quadratic, that's a square.
Negative duration times negative duration is positive duration squared.
Bitcoin drinks in so much liquidity, and they were putting so much in,
it was the best place to go to kind of absorb that liquidity.
Bitcoin's been leaning lowest since April.
Even when I covered at 4.29 on April 7th at 75,091.95,
and go check my highlights for that post,
which I sent to Grant Cardone, Hugh Henry, and some others,
it was still underperforming its prior outperformance,
but it was slowing, so that caused the cover. But we got to a high and volatility was dying. You
were leaving the chaos traders that are going to be overwhelmed by the machine, the system,
the IBIT call selling. And that's why MicroStrategy has no future, because what's their
business? They sell volatility, so they're going to be going away. Maybe pink sheets, they're going
away. But how about the big banks? What is Jamie Dimon's job? What is Jane Frazier's job? Brian
Moynihan and the crook at Wells Fargo, in my opinion. He should be in jail for what he did to
people. They were doing credit cards without telling people their credit scores failed.
They couldn't buy houses.
Sick, sick guys.
Anyway, volatility is going to come down in treasuries.
Volatility is going to come down in mortgages.
Mortgage rates are two basis points from a three-year low on the adjustable.
A bank sells volatility.
They're going to go the way of volatility.
Jamie Dimon and Brian Moynihan,
they're killing each other right now. Brian Armstrong says, if I can't pay interest
on stablecoin, what's the point? Banks say, I'm sorry. I have all the political power.
You will destroy me if you can pay money on stablecoin. Well, guess what?
It reminds me of CZ and Sam Bankman-Fried.
They're exposing the truth.
They're both corrupt, and they're both going to deflate.
Where the hell is that money going?
It's not going into crypto.
It's not going into software.
It's going into healthcare staples and utilities.
And don't be buffaloed by the move in the small cap.
Real money goes into the biggest and the fastest.
So it loves Walmart.
It'll like Costco.
It loves Lilly.
It's going to love, it's going to buy the biggest
when the money comes in.
Buy the ETFs.
And just think, really, my last point.
I've been watching markets for 47 years,
not derivatives the whole time.
In fact, they didn't even have bond options when I started.
Okay.
In my life, I've never seen a price of an asset at an all-time high
and nobody charging a premium for the call over the put,
meaning there's no call skew.
Like, what is that?
You mean you literally aren't worried about an asymmetric rise from something at an all-time high? And what that is is hopium. People are
saying, no, no, no, no. I don't mind shorting a call in Walmart, which just rose 50% in two quarters,
or XLV, XLP. I don't mind shorting those calls because I'm going to make a fortune in other things.
Well, guess what?
You're not.
And so those non-SKU sales will be unwound.
Very ugly.
So my expectation is that 100 trillion they printed
during COVID, it's not going to evaporate.
No recession.
Growth, it's going to go somewhere else.
Watch where it's leaving. Watch where it's leaving,
watch where it's growing, going. So we expect it to go to Staples Healthcare Utilities,
buying strength, buying leaps, you know, not advice folks, but I'd be buying the longest term.
I don't want any short-term stuff. You need time to develop, but you want that stuff. But if you
see IGV melting down, the biggest software company in
the world, in price discovery, bear and golfing, and it's a monthly close today, it can't not
drag down the 70s. I can't imagine it. That money's going somewhere. It's not going nowhere. And if
you start watching the liquidity pools, and that's why I called for people to move from, on our spaces and our subscriber spaces,
move from crypto to the metals. I just saw the metal vault go insane. Every paper guy backed
away. They said, do whatever you want. It's not going to stay there. It's now bringing in,
you guys are going to be going into tech on the short side. You're going to be leaning on this stuff.
You've got to...
This is why Druckenmiller lost $3 billion.
He says, I knew not to buy falling multiples.
The earnings aren't real.
It's what analysts are being told by companies
that are being told by their customers.
Now, if you're a Vidiya's customer...
David, you touched on something there.
Wait, you're not still recommending metals now, right?
No, no, no. What I'm saying is that
the volatility of metals, I think, is
toast, which means
I don't disagree.
Okay, but that gives you the opportunity
using Bitcoin as an example,
not the exact same,
but Bitcoin volatility
started falling a year
after the August 2nd bottom of Bitcoin and volatility.
So Bitcoin's $25K.
August 2nd, 2023, Bitcoin vol is $31.24.
They both tripled.
But Bitcoin kept on going for another double.
Okay.
So Bitcoin goes from $25K to like $75K or so, or $70K.
And then it goes to 126.
So while volatility is falling,
gold and silver can keep on going up.
There'll be volatility.
It'll be churning around.
Great traders will make a fortune,
but there's still room for it to go up.
This isn't a blow off top that doesn't come back,
that that was the peak.
I can't possibly imagine.
It's too much volatility.
Too many people want to trade in it.
But what I'm saying is,
we talked about the money moving from Bitcoin,
and you could see the deflation of volatility.
It moved over to crypto.
I think that capital is going to show up
on the bear side of the NASDAQ,
first in the software, now the hardware, semis,
which literally it's at a high,
down three times
the S&P
today, and then
it's also going to show up in the
bull tail of low beta.
And Mike Allred,
so he's in, he's
comfortable, he lights the low beta
stuff. We disagree on a lot of things, but for safety, he's So he's in. He's comfortable. He likes the low beta stuff.
We disagree on a lot of things, but for safety, he's moving money over there.
So I think those go up.
I think tech, AI, that stuff, that's ninth inning already.
Okay?
But Bitcoin is a trader's market, and a trader's market means you're still going to be around there.
I don't think... David, David, he said he's into low beta. you see his 13f no no he said he's moving no he said he's moving money into
healthcare and staples that's what he said yesterday i don't know what his 13f says he's
like his 13s like 90 concentrated in high beta right now so no no but that's his business that's
his business but whatever he can he's moving out he not all in anymore. He's starting to move out. He thinks it's the second to the fifth inning in AI.
I think we're between eight and nine.
Who was?
Mike Allred, Allfred.
Oh, Mike.
Mike Alfredo.
He's very smart.
He's very smart.
But I'm earlier on Dollar Strength.
He's later on that.
He's earlier in the AI
build-out. I'm saying we'll have the build-out.
There just won't be any profits
like Fibre.
But I think that gold and silver still have
traders will be able
to make a fortune if you're a good trader.
If you survive Bitcoin,
you can survive
metals, right? Bitcoin
is much more difficult.
There's no information on it.
You've got to like- Some perspective though.
I shared it up in the nest.
There's a lot of pain out there and for good reason.
Like, so Bitcoin had a negative 35% correction
that took over 50 days.
Is it a negative correction or is it a correction?
Negative price correction.
Yeah, negative price correction. Negative 35% move from its all-time high to where it is still today. That took over 50 days.
No, guys, it's not a negative correction.
Yes, that's what I was trying to say. I don't mean to be technical, but people listen to you and you can't get a correction.
get a correction a negative a negative 35 percent move let's just great great and silver silver had
A negative 35% move, let's just say that.
silver had a negative 35 percent move in an hour one day in an hour day well technically one day
but yeah in a day but it had a it had a 60 percent move today a 55 percent move it went down and then
recovered i mean that's boomers had a taste of that boomers had a taste of ten no no it recovered. I mean, that's... Boomers had a taste of... Boomers had a taste of 10%.
No, no, it recovered, then it fell,
but if you traced it,
it's 50% in a day.
You don't get those in a lifetime.
Rough stuff.
Rough stuff.
Prometheus,
if someone buys a lot of silver
on Hyperliquid,
do they actually affect the price?
Because this price action
is courtesy of C
No, it's no or crypto people wait. Are you saying that?
Technically future technically futures markets can affect spot prices because you know if the futures markets
Create a very large premium of the future over the spot
Then people will come and try and harvest it by shorting futures and going to that spot
Which will drag the spot. So that's that's how futures markets and spot markets are connected
Otherwise, they could just trade like completely at random, right? So yes, it does
Not good. Not good. I see you posting a lot of uh stuff recently, man. What what are what are your views on this? Uh
Price action lately, man. Well, I views on this price action lately, man?
Well, I was just going to come to the space and ask,
you know, how's the bull market going for my
little DGEN? I mean, as long as you
didn't buy silver
in the last month, you're fine.
You know?
No, if you bought it the last month and sold it yesterday.
Sure, sure.
If you sold it at the all-time high...
I think it's been quite enjoyable shorting
everything to the ground honestly isn't silver still up like 25 percent year to date
that's that's i mean it's a correction right i still outperforming you know majority of like
everything so far you know what's crazy man i i had someone say i can't say who um but she's like oh
like i don't really like xyz but if you can just get me some quarters that would be great i'm like
quarters and over the last few weeks i see silver just chatting you got it but you got it i mean it had a it had a dead cat
bounce but you got to expect silver but you know you know what's crazy two two days ago two days
ago i'm not i'm not kidding when i say this man i'm not kidding when i say this um i'm not sure
if i saw it on tiktok or on x but this person is like i just bought a ton of silverware I just bought a ton of silverware and I'm gonna sell it for double the price in a few weeks because everyone's buying silver
Like that's not the way it works. You can't sell forks and knives
The silver is going up the refiners early
Education The refiner's are only paying $60. It's the cost of education.
It's the cost of education.
I'm folks in life.
No, no, but silver, they're only giving you $0.60, the refiner. That would be hilarious if you brought silver-colored utensils and thought that it was actually in it.
Yeah, silver.
Excuse me, I have a set of silver.
Yeah, you fucking peasants.
Do you not eat off the 24-carat pure gold? Silver-coated eat silver coated amazon basics utensils like she's
brilliant she wow i bought i bought 50 of these for like two dollars tina tina tina how are you
doing man let's let's try to get you riled up just scream as loud as possible on your views
on the markets to the point where the mic just fizzles out.
Tina.
Tina, how are you, man?
I'm listening to a call right now, so I'll just have to hang out a little
bit first.
I think the problem
with Tina is they
actually did find an alternative,
so he's feeling a bit.
Naka.
I didn't know there was an hour in Tina.
Yeah,
I think that's because his accent.
Yeah.
I think that's because of his,
his,
his,
his accent,
but now you gotta ask yourself, man, I think that's because of his accent.
But now you got to ask yourself, man,
how would this market be if SBF and Doquan were still around?
Probably a lot better, huh?
I mean, probably if Doquan was still around,
he would have pushed it up to 100K so I could fill shorts.
That's the only thing that's making me mad because I thought we were going to 100K, and i was like yeah when we like you know twiddle with 100k i'll short it but um
it's just it's just weak guys what can i say it's weak the only positive that i can see is like
what if this is like january of 2024 where we actually put the monthly close below the yearly open and then going into mid
february we started chatting um but i will say like by mid february if we're still below the
yearly open then obviously like some things are are not great and you probably have to
this is this is this is this is going to like 40k this this is going to like 40k right like that's where
oh gosh here we go this this just seems like like look man like bitcoin is kind of like a muted bear
market i'll be i'll be real it's the all coin space that like has people going crazy because
bro 40 haircut 50 haircut on btc is nothing for people that have been here since 2017 dude solano on
chain lobby is like the streets of san francisco right now they have 12 people yeah it's crazy
dude like dude it's it's disgusting man and it's like all right everything it goes like this hey
let's launch something a few things and then right when they go to 30
like 25 to 60 65 mil we'll rug it and we'll just rug everything on chain and then we'll launch a
new shitter and just repeat the same process and like every few weeks we'll do the same thing like dude this this this these ceilings
that are passing around their last crack rock bro basically basically man basically basically
it's uh it's the same i mean i think if you're on soul you kind of know who they are um and a lot of this stuff is just
like vibes dude like the dude you cannot do ta man you can't do that's a lower that's a lower
no dude that's what ta says that's i mean look look here here's the deal, right? As long as Solana is under 200, then the ceilings for these things are like 80 to 150 with a few exceptions, right?
Like White Whale, that was an exception.
It's usually when Sol's well above 200 where things are just awesome.
And you're going to have to have a bigger buyout than Kyle Samani, right?
Remember his dad?
I remember. He bought billions of Sol at like 240. have to have a bigger bio than kyle samani right remember his dad i remember i remember he bought
like he bought billions of soul at like i mean the the the the the fact of it is and prometheus
called like the top he called top on soul you remember that prometheus dude 252 macro 252 i
called it and everybody was like there's no way there there's no way yeah including me there's
no way man including me and i i was uh yeah like i i but uh damn if you rode soul from anyone from
250 or even 200 down here well done can i ask your question i did i did not write it from 250 to here oh
i actually but that's still a good call from a trader perspective yeah yeah yeah i i don't even
think like like if if you if you're if you've actually been in this market for any amount of
time like there's in crypto and crypto at least like why would you hold a short for more than like
a few days like well can i say? There are times when you want to.
Holding shorts in fall 2025 was the move.
That was the move.
Yeah, but most of the volatility to the downside, the momentum,
happened in like two days out of Q4.
It was 10-10, and then I think some points in November after that 116 top,
and you could have written it from 116 down to like 98.
That was like your last.
There are three ways you know when to hold the short.
If you have ultra-high volatility, that means the giant range, devol's up at 80, your short will go down, you know,
20% fast, day two, three, you're out. When vol is ultra low, you don't get out of it.
It just melts down forever. When it's in the middle, that's when it's so choppy.
So we're getting to the point where vol,
D vol goes to, not advice anymore,
but D vol takes out its recent low.
The low is 35,089, excuse me,
35.89 is the low monthly close of all time.
And we were at 37 and change over the weekend.
And then that's where you got your dump because people were saying,
I can buy puts very cheaply.
The embedded cost of the volatility was at a cycle low.
It was below the October 9th level.
You look at that candle for Devol,
its low was 37.67.
So we got to 37.22, we took that out.
People are saying, I could buy cheap puts.
I could neutralize my delta, my exposure.
When you have low vol, you can hang out longer
because the rallies are going to be anemic.
Where do you think if vol was high
and Binance said, I'm going to buy a billion with a backup,
you'd be up 10 bucks, I mean 10 10k you're up two and a half you know because vol is low and people say you know
what i want to buy puts i just want to get out of this thing so when vol is very high you're you
could go to the other side of the ring you know like, like a giant circle, a giant circumference, like a giant sumo
wrestling ring. You can go all the way across the room. When vol is really low, you don't even feel
the waves. You don't even notice them. It just goes, you just write it down. It's when it's in
the middle, it goes up and then it like spends a lot of time coming back. So when you have that
move off of the top under high vol, you get the big drop so that that's just you know how i'm looking at
trying to write it now you have bitcoin near its low its volatility is dying down any moment you
know a couple days a week now david david questions here to your point i mean it seems a little
counterintuitive maybe you can clear this up in my brain. When volatility rises, you think that would
lead to trend continuation? No, that kills it. This is the whole point. You would have asked
a great question. This is paper Bitcoin. This is paper silver. When volatility goes up and a dealer
is selling the volatility, he's selling you a little piece of gamma.
He gets short the gamma.
So when volatility is high, you're getting paid a lot.
You do more and you're shorting more gamma.
So you're neutralizing the buying.
So you run, it's like a parachute.
You run out of room.
Yeah.
Because the dealer who's selling you the vol or the swing trader, same thing,
functionally. But when you're over your skis and vol is too high, it's accelerated to a level,
like with gold, like I said Wabi yesterday, right? I said to the gold vol chart, right?
And you sent me a message. Wow, it's two giant candles 24 years apart i mean 12 years apart you can't go any more
than that you got everything trading in the bottom you know uh 10 to 20 and this thing goes to 45
that's not sustainable it invites so much selling of the volatility that that that cures it and if
you checked yesterday two days ago you were getting like 120% on these
hyperliquids or whatever,
whoever does it, when you're
short the silver, because there was so much
demand for it, because everyone had to
buy it. And then all of a sudden, you see
the drop of the carry.
That's like we're back in balance.
Then rug pull.
One of my best traders
in our group chat, she was highlighting that,
and she said 120, because she moved from coin to silver. She made Superbank, and she said,
I'm going to start doing my shorting because I'll open it, but I'm getting paid so much.
And as soon as the price you're paid to be short starts to drop that says there's no buyers and then you got the
35s of rugg pull she killed it she killed it so you have to watch the tension between the retail
price action and the and the aggregation of the entire you know swing trading group as well as
the actual algo uh um volatility uh traders and so you couldn't go
more than 50 gold
volatility. It likes to be between
8 and 33. It was a
standard deviation event
gold volatility spiking.
The gold-silver ratio
went from 108
down to 43. That was
the greatest decline in the shortest time of all time.
I might've put it up in the nest, but if you do gold, silver, you'll see we had one in 2011.
We had one a long time before that. Early 80s. Yeah. This was gold and silver's worth,
especially silver, but this was gold and silver's worst day since 1980.
No, but it's the greatest volatility day of all time.
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
And it's because of you guys.
Because the brilliant guys doing this.
But then to your point, I think you're absolutely right where the hot money ball and the traders are going to move on.
But that doesn't mean you don't go up.
You have plenty of time for it to go up
as the vol
comes down
as vol comes down people want to buy stuff
so like just I'm using Bitcoin
as an example because you all know it
I think you need to give it at least
a couple months before
I'm not talking a time frame
I'm saying the swing traders are going to make so much bank right now
oh sure
they stretch this thing out like that movie Pet Detective with H. Ventura
when Jim Carrey's coming out of the hippo's anus,
and he's just pushing the anus walls aside.
They just push this volatility up to a level where you're making 6% a day
just being short the volatility.
It's insane.
Like with Bitcoin when it was 170 back in 21 you
made nine percent doing nothing just shorting the vol you buy it you close your eyes you have a stop
it gets filled on the other side up but you don't have any volatility anymore people are moving on
where are we going to find the volatility that's what what I try to train my people. Where is the next volatility opportunity?
Where's the next silver?
Right. I mean, there's always
a blow off top if you keep
looking. Something's always happening.
But it's not easy to find
them before they happen.
Naka,
where do you think that next
market is?
The liquidity gap with the liquidity value. I think that next market is yeah i i think the next blow off top is going to be in uh
puts in what come on man come on he's no no no he's completely right in nasdaq no
he's trolling he's he's being a little gremlin right now
no i mean i actually do genuinely think the next blow off top is is in bitcoin puts
like short shorts puts you know that if you if you want to have a bull market in the bear market right there is actually a button on trading view that you can press that will create a new bull
market for you.
And it's the Alt plus I buttons.
You hold down Alt and press I and it'll turn into a bull market again.
No, what he's saying is right.
He's saying that in order to get Bitcoin to go up,
you need to take it down.
You need to get people short the calls.
Everyone's shorting the calls.
They think they're freaking geniuses, right?
Shorting Ibit calls.
Oh, they figured it out.
They didn't know it at 126. They know it down here. And they're going to short calls here and
at 60 and at 40. And that's the fuel of the next bull market. Because they're not going to just
short calls. They're going to short calls on leverage. They're going to have ETFs that are
short Bitcoin times two. They'll overdo it. Yeah. Of course. That's the fuel for the bull.
But I think the bears are overdoing it. I don't think so.
I think that's already happening.
Fink hasn't really been doing much TV appearances
over the last 13, 14 months, has he?
Yeah, he's been in Davos.
He's been shilling all his latest projects and products in Davos.
Yeah, it's just
this new shiny shit, honestly.
They're shining the turds.
David, what is the
overflow or spilling point
for the oversaturation
of call selling?
What is the trigger for that?
What would you be looking for?
Give me a particular product
so we can be on line
with what we're talking about.
On Bitcoin.
On Bitcoin.
You just said that it's going to be
Okay, so this is the problem.
We're at the low.
Okay.
Volatility is low.
I need volatility to go down
and stay down and stop going down.
I need it to stop going down
because until volatility stops going down,
you don't have the...
See, this is what happens. Volatility goes down until it stops.
Then it bounces and it goes right back down.
Then every bounce goes lower and lower and lower.
And then it's stable like a currency.
And Bitcoin's moving up and people are shorting the calls while Bitcoin's going up.
And then they get slaughtered.
You get one of those, you know,cent days, and you can't get equilibrium
until it goes up three decimals or four or five decimals.
Remember, Bitcoin never existed before it existed.
So the first day that it existed,
it was in infinity volatility.
And then it just took forever to find an equilibrium
between what it was worth in the short run
and the volatility.
Volto's been coming down ever since.
It's got to stop going down before you can have the underlying go up.
As it's going down, it's just more and more virtual supply.
And then the D-Vol, let's say, use D-Vol,
it'll go down, whether it's 29, 19, or 9,
I think it probably goes to 9.
And then it bounces to 15, goes to 9, then it probably goes to 9 and then it bounces to 15 goes to 9
13 goes to 9 and then you find
some low level that it never goes below
but Bitcoin
is just doing
what it's doing and the volatility just goes
down and stays down
so you're just saying just watch the characteristic of
volatility yeah because that's the virtual
paper that's why it takes
13 years to get
silver like a cicada out of a hole
and before you know it, they blow apart
Jamie Dimon.
Because it's not real.
It's got a lot of value, but it doesn't
have a lot of
markers for
what it's worth. Two people can
see the same thing and see, one says
$200 silver, the other guy says
$10. So you just have to load up the people who are wrong on the wrong side of the boat,
enough of them, you can't stop the equilibrium price discovery to get back those short calls.
You have to blow those calls up so much that someone will sell you the call to clean up your
short because you're short the call. These people aren't going to sell you the call to clean up your short, because you're short the call.
These people aren't going to stop sharing the call.
And then the lower it goes, the more they'll short.
But Bitcoin is not fake.
I'm not Chris Whalen, who's the best bank analyst,
but he thinks it's, I don't think it's fake.
I don't think anyone can innovate away Bitcoin in 25 years,
maybe 50, not 25, not 17. So they're just going to pretend it's worth nothing. And they're just going to get short on leverage. They'll create products you can't even
imagine to get short because they've got to say, oh, free money, shorting Bitcoin vault. It's not
going anywhere until it kills you, until it goes up another three, four, five decimals from 10,000 to 10 million or
from 1,000 to 10 million, whatever. But you need the volatility to stop going up. And right now,
we have four attacks at the 30s. I don't think there's any way we don't go through that.
And so, there's so many other places for people to trade i mean when you start seeing microsoft really go low you
know you're going to kill semiconductors nvidia is going to get take out that 141 from june of 2024
june 18 2024 you know of everybody who bought it since june of 2024 19 months under what you know
no profit in that time how does How does software go down and not ultimately
drag? Remember the
gold-silver we just talked about. You go from
108 down to 43.
Of course that was the end. We had the
signal yesterday, copper was up 6.
When copper goes up, silver
goes down. When silver goes up, gold
goes under price.
Look at IGV denominated
in SMH.
It is the most oversold.
It's like a 23 RSI on a monthly.
You've never seen anything like that.
That means it's got to pull down the semis.
So it's going to be super cheap put skew.
You know, the puts on semis. And there's going to be more room on skew, you know, the puts on semis,
and there's going to be more room on this IGV
before people give it away.
But the whole NASDAQ is going to underperform.
Where's that money going?
Into the low beta.
And I think so much is out there.
Low beta becomes high beta.
You're going to, Coca-Cola, no one even notices.
It's at an all-time high on the monthly.
Walmart, it went from 80 on a tariff earnings news in last year.
It's 120.
One is 24-hour Walmart coming back.
You have to go talk to them.
They're trying to cut some costs.
Have you guys ever seen that uh that spongebob episode where uh they end up at the wrong side
of bikini bottom called rock bottom prometheus you know what uh episode i'm talking about
dude i do not they got lost that was such a fever dream for me back then
but you know what episode man like they get lost and they see all these alien creatures.
And then... Bro, I honestly don't.
I honestly don't.
It's the one where they say, like, they're like, hi, how are you doing?
And they make, like, those noises.
So a lot of people don't know.
I don't know if you know, SpongeBob was supposed to be on Adult Swim.
It was supposed to be an adult, like, an adult cartoon.
It kind of is bro like if you if you take a look at it now it's very morbid dude like that is a very morbid show but anyways where i was
getting at is like going to a 24-hour walmart after like midnight at 1 or 2 a.m., it would be like a fever dream. It's like this Alice in Wonderland,
Jimi Hendrix, Cirque du Soleil kind of trip, honestly, man.
Yeah.
And they got to bring back 24-hour Walmarts, man.
That was a fun time.
Dude, there's a lot.
There's no money in it.
You don't think so?
They don't get enough.
I mean, you've seen the creatures that come out buying groceries and goods at 2 a.m.?
Do you guys remember looking at the websites?
You don't want them in your store.
I do.
They're not spending real money at that hour
and it can only if you're kind of losing money because you have to keep it stacked and you have
to keep it stocked and you have to keep the lights on there's a 24-hour store out in the
midwest i think one of them is called winco and uh there's another one too and their logos are
like yellow i forgot what it is but it's winco and something
you're talking about bucky's oh no not that one it's another one it's another one i forget the
name dude it's it escapes me but there's winco and there's one other store. I can't remember what it was.
But when I was in the Midwest in 2024, I think it was like late 2024, there was one store.
Nothing's open 24-7 over here, bro.
That's the downfall of living in the Midwest, I will say.
No, no.
No, dude.
I was in Reno, and there was a store that was open.
Oh, bro, that's the West Coast, bro.
Reno, Nevada?
You mean?
Isn't that the Midwest?
It's right next to California.
Yeah, man.
You're on the west side of the Rockies.
How can Reno be Midwest?
Yeah.
Well, let me tell you, man.
That place...
Anything west of Tampa for Wabi is the Midwest.
Anything west of Tampa.
Dude, it's all the same.
It's all the same stuff.
Well, that's the joke of the Midwest is it's all the same.
Yes.
You're not wrong.
Yeah, Chicago, Arkansas, Little Rock, Missouri, Kansas City.
Okay, yeah.
Okay.
Michigan.
It's all the same thing
Indiana, Montana
Colorado, it's all the same stuff
now you're getting a little part
now that's mountains, come on
it's all the same thing
it's a bunch of trees and wasteland
in the middle of nowhere
dude
when Prometheus drives
you lose cell phone reception every few blocks
man there's like that is only when i'm driving through the hog fields that is that is not when
no there's a specific point every day of when i'm leaving my house going to the gym
and i'm driving through the woods going to the woodshed and and that's when i'm yes the wood service yeah dude and you gotta
ask yourself man imagine if like there's just no service for like 24 hours how would you check
price well i'm one of those people that would be completely okay i would i genuinely because the
whole thing and and hear me out everybody's listening we're trying to get Wabi to go out camping
because Wabi is
unclatured. There's no
way. T-Mobile
has Elon Musk
attached to their new phones.
What you need to do is tell
Wabi
that there are
Solana shitcoins in the woods, right?
Then he'll come camping. No, Wabi's scared are Solana shitcoins in the woods, right? Then he'll come camping. For sure.
For sure, man. No, Wabi's
scared of the raccoons and the possums.
He's worried that he's gonna
wake up and he's gonna see the
chupacabra scratching at his tent door.
Yeah. I think
the raccoons might be more scared of
Wabi than Wabi is of them.
Wabi's just so...
The ancestral raccoon. little do they know.
Man, I feel like the Altina, he's in the listener audience now.
Can we talk about that a little bit?
Well, yeah.
Prometheus, what are your thoughts on the market, i don't think no i haven't i've just
been enjoying uh the banter and and you know it's nice hearing others talk about it but
i mean my take on the market has been the same i've been there was like a very brief period
um last week when we peaked our you know we we peaked our little heads above the, you know,
the range where, you know, I said that there could be bullish continuation up to about 100k,
see how we reacted there. We deviated back in the range and, you know, the writing was on the wall
at that point. You know, I kind of stuck with the long-term bearish thesis rolling, you know,
moving forward, even though there was multitudes of discussions, you know, and it was kind of like this, this battleground like it is when we're seeing, you know, ranging environments where people are trying to prove their point, whether price is going to be going up or down or sideways or yada, yada, yada.
in the altcoin sector specifically that show me that this is really just we're going to see
further continuation and I put out a video on the BB YouTube channel earlier today of total 3ES
or the total three the altcoin sector as a whole excluding stable coins in relation to Bitcoin and
you see a lot of people discussing that there is, you know, this urge to,
or I shouldn't say a lot of people, but, you know, certain individuals,
for whatever reason, are finding some urge to be buying altcoins at quote-unquote
distressed prices, right?
And there's a real flaw in that thinking because all you have to do is you have to,
all you have to do is compare Bitcoin's chart and this total 3DS chart, which is like the altcoin index chart.
And you can clearly see it is painted like Picasso on that chart that altcoins continue downtrending the entire time until Bitcoin starts meaningfully uptrending.
And right now, Bitcoin is not doing that, right? Bitcoin is actually
seeing expansion to the downside. So why would you want to be buying altcoins, right? We saw,
you know, a short squeeze on Hyperliquid the other day, similar in reflection to what we saw
on XRP, I think about two weeks ago, we caught that move. And the charts look identical and and i just look at this
and i'm like where is the true demand within you know for all coins it's actually going to
generate uh a meaningful trend of the upside and i just i can't see it from a you know supply
demand mechanic standpoint uh but the thing is the thing is though prometheus with with some of
these altcoins that are already down 90 i mean mean, that means they can only drop another 10%.
No, they can drop another 90%.
He's trolling.
He's trolling.
No, no, no.
No, that's not true.
That's not true.
Because the maximum you can drop is 100%.
No, no, no, no.
Once you lose a decimal, that's misleading.
That's misleading.
Come on.
You know you can drop 90 percent of what's left he's
being a ghoul he's trolling that's crazy he's trolling it's like it's it's it's really free
it's low risk it's not low risk you can lose 90 of your money and if you and real real quick let
me finish let me finish my point so i mean if you look at uniswap you look at solana like solana
and the complacency shoulder of last cycle um from the low of that, you know, that called a range, you know, it bounced 80%.
But where did it go after bouncing 80%?
It went down another 90%.
You look at Uniswap, you look at the strongest names of last cycle, Cardano, Uniswap.
I mean, we all know what happened.
Sui.
Well, no no not
not suey for last cycle but we look at like okay you know like to luna and some of the others like
sure they bounce right but but then ensues thereafter is you know just can trend continuation
right you're more so seeing in my opinion consolidation across the board or you saw
consolidation across the board i think you saw consolidation across the board.
I think in the broader scheme of things, if you're looking at stablecoin dominance, again, as a reflection to where we're at, I put a chart of where stablecoin dominance is at in relation to Bitcoin.
We had a high time frame accumulation on stablecoin dominance.
You come up into the range, quote unquote, range highs on stablecoin dominance.
Clear range mechanics. You leave the highs on stablecoin dominance, clear range mechanics,
you leave the highs, you're taking out systematic lows. It's indicative that you're going to be
seeing a continuation to the upside for stablecoin dominance, meaning that overall price
directionality for just the crypto sector as a whole is still down for a prolonged period of time.
And I've been discussing this as well, Newton's third law
of motion, right? For every reaction, there's an equal and opposite reaction. We have had 12 plus
months of, you know, bullish price action and euphoria. Euphoria for some, you know, not so
much for others. But regardless of the fact, we have 12 months of high timeframe distribution and opportunity
to make money on chain and froth and exuberance and liquidity was flush on chain, multitudes
of different parts of the cycle.
And because of that, because of Newton's third law of motion, we had a 12 month distribution,
we need an accumulation in orders of magnitude
equal to that of the distribution.
We are going to be entering into a multi-year,
at least a year-long reaccumulation period,
in my opinion, to offset the distribution that occurred, right?
Would you agree that if you close March 31 below 74,
you will extend out that period you're talking about?
Because that means that everyone that bought coin into the year, because it's a bearish engulfing annual candle.
We never had a bearish engulfing quarterly candle, which we got last quarter.
And David, I'll do you one even, I'll do one even better. You already got confirmation of the upper supply region. And how did we already get confirmation of the last 12 months, confirming that that is all entirely supply, is that we now
are accepting below last year's standard deviation, the lower cloud of the standard
deviation, right? Because of that, you have now confirmed that all
of the last 12 months of Bitcoin's price action is now all supply. That includes even though yes,
we are still at what 83, 84 as of right now. And that still does include that the 74k lows are
still counting in that supply. And we have to now go find true value the true value the next region that we're going to go
find out if that's going to hold is going to be the range that we put in over the summer of 24
and the point of control of that range is 68k precisely you watch how you react out of that
and maybe we do a nice round 69k for the funds uh for you know funny business and all that yeah because of big no
because of 11 10 21 that was the peak 11 10 21 69 000 exactly so that means you've made zero money
in five years right and and to to your point 69 69 69 is not going to hold we're going to 35 i said
that that's the first region that you have to watch for if you lose 69 your next spot
is your rotational back down to range lows you're leaving an important thing out very important
though what happens to sailor 715 000 coins if you're trading aggressively below his price they
might have to start selling and i think he's fine i think i've looked into this a bit and i think
basically as long as the downturn doesn't last beyond 2030, he's fine.
It's not about that.
It's not about him.
It's about market participants saying, I've got a $3 trillion asset class, and I got a little pishikaka, $40 billion piece of paper.
Let me just lean on it. And his CEO already hinted and already put it out there to not create a massive, massive, massive resonance event because they need to put that piece of that.
They need to lay that crumb trail out there for everybody so that they understand that they might have to start selling potentially in the future. If they did not put that out there into everybody's mind and subconscious, if
they had not told anybody and they
start selling, my goodness.
You're talking about
resonance on a whole other wavelength
that we have not seen before.
You thought the way up was
crazy? I mean, the way
down would be...
Saylor doesn't have to sell.
Saylor doesn't have to sell. They have to sell if they go to a discount sufficient to the m nav right because then real money will buy the stock and vote out the board and
tina go ahead man you've had your hand up for a while go ahead man so first before i do anything
else i want to apologize i want want to apologize to David Levinson.
So I just want him to know that I want to make a public apology.
I think I was rude to him on space.
And I want to apologize.
I hope he accepts it.
And this is the most important thing.
This is the primary reason I came here today.
David, you can take it or not.
Whatever you want,
but I do want to apologize to you.
Second, by the way, did you hear me, David?
I just would like to know because I have you.
Yes, I did. Are you dumbfounded?
I'm shocked.
I wanted a public apology to you.
Just specifically.
That's the number one reason I came today.
Bobby asked me to come all the time,
but I really only came today primarily to apologize.
I have a comment.
I actually have a couple of comments.
They're mostly directed at David and some questions.
So I'm going to make the comments first and I'd like a couple of comments, and they're mostly directed at David, and some questions. So I'm going to make the comments first, and I'd like a response, and I have a question.
Don't respond yet, because I'll forget what I'm saying, you know, because my wife says I have dementia.
So, vis-a-vis software and semiconductors.
As I understand it from what I've heard from other people, one of the reasons semiconductors are going up as much as they are is because of the massive spending on AI. an arms race. So these companies will likely spend until they're forced to not spend,
but it's an arms race and they view AI as the most important thing for the future of their business.
So they're going to spend as long as they're able to. And semiconductors, I mean, the reason reason sandusk and mitron and um western digi seagate are exploding to the upside yes they
sold off today but the reason they're exploding to the upside is that this is computing and they
need more and more memory because they have to um you know expand the uh god i can't remember what
it's called the what they call that window, context window,
and they need to have more memory for doing what they're doing.
That's the first thing.
The reason software is declining as much as it is
is because AI presents a big problem for software companies because it makes people who might not have been just coders.
I was listening to something this morning.
I can't remember.
It was designers and engineers.
I forget the three different players.
But AI makes them all better. And this is a problem for software companies, at least a perceived problem, which may be wrong, which is why software is getting hammered.
So it can be that semiconductors go up and software can go down, although I'm sure it had limits to it where it is.
I have no idea.
Next comment, and I have a question for David, is in terms of forcing MicroStrategy to sell their Bitcoin if the price is knocked down, as I understand it, and I have not looked at it recently, so the information is not fresh, Sailor at least used to have voting control.
So can he be forced if he has voting control?
And here's the last question, anything I'd be interested in his comments on. Can he be forced if he has voting control?
And here's the last question, anything I'd be interested in his comments on.
I think he makes interesting comments on Staples, utilities, health care.
Any opinion on materials and any opinion on developed markets outside the USA,
excuse me, and emerging markets.
I hope you took notes, David,
because I'm not sure I could successfully repeat it.
Okay, first, I accept your apology.
Second, emerging markets have no shot. This is 1997, but it's not going to be
1,080 days for the whole thing to unwind.
Indonesia, India, there are 6 billion people on planet Earth whose currencies are at record lows,
which means they have massive amounts of inflation, which means they cannot build tall buildings.
They won't not eat any energy.
They were buyers of gold as their country's
currencies were melting down, but they're on the verge of needing an IMF drip,
which Donald Trump controls. It's the U.S.
Maybe I wasn't specific. LATAM in Asia, when I'm talking, maybe I didn't specify that.
Emerging markets. So maybe I said it markets. So maybe I said it wrong.
So maybe I said it wrong.
I'm talking specifically Latin America and Asia.
Forget about Indonesia and some of those.
No, no, but Singapore is different.
Okay.
But the India is a disaster.
Brazil is going to be a disaster. The problem is, and I posted to Joe Weisenthal, and he liked the
comments a couple times. Three years ago, I met him and I told him why silver had a massively
outperformed copper, because China's in a death spiral population-wise. They used to have 50%
of the global call on copper, and they're not building any net new houses, so there's no need
for copper, and 70% of silver is byproduct from copper because the way copper and silver and gold exist is because two binary stars collapsing into each other strip electrons off of lead.
And when Earth was a gas cloud four and a half billion years ago, the gold, the silver, everything just pulled down in the ratio of 17 ounces of silver
for every ounce of gold. But these people who are buying gold and silver were doing it to hide
from a collapsing currency. Their economies, they're going to blow up. The US dollar, people
think the US dollar is going down. They're wrong.S. dollar is in a primary uptrend from 2008.
We pushed it down under Bernanke from 121 down to 71.
And we've been in an uptrend ever since.
The 50-year average is 99.
But like Google was saying, if you spend a lot of time under a trend line, you've got to go to the other side. The dollar's got to go to 120, and it's going to destroy all these other
emerging market economies. The U.S. is stealing all of our growth back from everywhere in the
world. The idea that other countries aren't trying to get our tariffs back with retaliation,
because they're afraid of Trump. And so our economy is growing
faster than everywhere in the world. And they think we have a debt problem. We're growing at
4%. We're going to grow at 4% for each of the next four quarters. Our deficit's 5.8 on the way to
four. Plus we're getting, you know, people were saying, America has people selling our treasuries.
Our treasuries are now held 10% more by foreigners
than they were the prior year. They're all buying it. So it's all about the dollar. The dollar is
going to be going up. It's going to go and hurt people. When NASDAQ is going up, people will
short the dollar. When gold is going up, they short the dollar. But when they're going up
rapidly, they short the dollar aggressively. When they're going up rapidly, they short the dollar aggressively.
When they go up gradually, they don't do it as much,
and you'll see the dollar uptrend.
Warsh or no Warsh?
What are the beneficiaries of a strong dollar?
Staples, importers, and not exporters.
Staples?
Healthcare, utilities, interest rate sensitives.
Okay. Today, you could go check, interest rate sensitives. Okay.
Today, you could go check on Mortgages Daily.
It's a free app, everyone.
Put it on your homepage.
You'll see the daily mortgage.
We're at a three-year low, two basis points above a three-year low on the adjustable rate.
The adjustable rate is 559.
It was 561.
Wash or no wash.
Dollar, no dollar. Gold, no gold. Mortgage rates are going lower. Mortgage rates are the second most powerful engine that exists, and there's nothing going to
stop that from going lower. When Trump announced he's buying $200 billion two weeks ago, and a
week ago they announced, no, we're not buying $ buying 400 billion we're neutralizing powell's roll-off mortgage rates are just continuing to melt down lower and lower
regardless of of treasury rates and they will go through and this is the problem this is why people
should follow me so you can learn more about mortgages because when mortgages prepay at a
certain point they cause banks to have to replace the mortgages they lose. And the first
thing they do to not become Silicon Valley Bank is they buy long treasuries to replace the mortgage
they lost. But the special problem we have now is Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale.
They're 10 times the size of JP Mort Morgan. And when they do a mortgage,
they're not selling it to a bank. They're selling it to an insurance company. They're
selling it to a pension. There's no leverage. And we're going to lose money supply creation
from banks. And so the banks are going to get slaughtered. JP Morgan, Citibank, Wells,
Bank of America, murdered. The smaller banks, they're just going to merge. They can't merge
now because of
accounting rules. They have deep losses on the mortgages that they bought during the COVID era,
and you cannot buy another bank without recognizing as a loss, reduction of your book value, any
unrealized loss on their books. So as mortgage rates go down, that loss decays, and you'll see
a thousand banks get gobbled up in almost
no time.
But the big banks trading at two times book, forget about it.
What is a bank?
They sell volatility.
What did you think of Penny Mac getting hammered today?
It's a problem.
It's a problem, but it's not a big problem for Rob.
I think I lost you.
Oh, I hear it. I'm back.
So PennyMac is more
of a servicer than an issuer.
Rocket's more of an issuer than a servicer.
And Rocket keeps their paper.
They don't lose their mortgage servicing
rights to someone else because they're
refining you.
It's not in the S&p 500 rocket it's 50 billion right now it was 66 two weeks ago the threshold is 28 uh is 22 billion or something like that
they'll eventually get put in the s&p 500 there's real money holding it but the business model
of rocket is ideal they have redfin they haveop for the servicing, and then they have Rocket for the promotion of the mortgages.
And they're going to be 20% of the whole market, and they give that paper away from the bank.
So the banks have big, big problems.
And when banks start to fall and they have a lot of debt, they're going to lean on the S&P, and they're going to kill
the S&P.
Dot com, you only lost 70% of the S&P in the first year.
It was the NASDAQ, you lost 57.
It's that when you get a little pressure from banks on the index, it's a lot of pressure
on the NASDAQ.
And if you look at Microsoft, it can't handle any more selling pressure.
So when you say interest-sensitives, you say...
The home builders. any more selling pressure. So when you say interest-sensitives, you say...
The home builders.
I mean, Trump just told Blackstone,
you can't buy any houses.
And then he goes to Dobblos,
and let me correct that.
You can't buy any used houses.
You could buy every single new house
you want anywhere in America,
make more homes,
and fund it with 50-year mortgages.
Because basically,
we're going to stop issuing bonds,
and you'll get all of your duration
from the mortgage. We're going to stop issuing bonds, and you'll get all of your duration from the mortgage.
We're going to force the cost of housing down.
And these independent mortgage brokers, whatever they're doing to them, they're trading at five or six times earnings, and mortgage rates are at 561.
The five-year, one-year is at 540 right now.
We're going to be 499 sometime in the first half of this year.
I don't know how people can think it's a good idea to short these things. Rocket is separate. There's moving parts,
but what is cheap, what's stable, what's moving up? I love both of them, Rocket and the other
ones. I like stable prices. I'll wait for things to stabilize, But mortgage rates are going to go down to 4% and 3%.
You know,
Wors says he wants to roll off the balance sheet.
Yeah, that's not happening.
Okay?
The Fed, the Treasury's going to buy
400 billion of mortgages.
Once the Fed stops rolling off
their mortgages, when they end that program,
mortgages are about 150
above Treasuries.
Excuse me, 150 more than they will be. There are 200 now, they'll be 50. Maybe they're like 190 right now since the Trump
announcement. Mortgage rates will go lower. They'll force people, the model-driven buyers,
whether they're on leverage or off, nobody is worried about a refinancing wave. There is nobody
in institutional mortgages, I speak directly or indirectly,
to a trillion dollars worth of paper. Nobody is
concerned, prepared, worried about a prepayment
cycle. David, when do you think that trillion dollars
worth of network can just come and buy some Solana?
I think that maybe on the other side of the four-leaf clover.
It's just like when Kramer says the money market funds are going to buy Thang, right?
That's never happening.
It's a different asset class.
Do you own any, like, Bitcoin or Ethereum or Solana?
Right now I'm short.
Right now I have SBIT. Say that again? Iereum or so right now i'm short right now i i have espet say that again
i have s bit right now it's 2x levered um bitcoin oh so like so you you've never like had like any
like you know like spot holdings david like no no no no no are you kidding me i can't even remember
what my keys are you think you're gonna remember to remember that password? I bought, I covered
April 7th at
429 AM. And I got
out somewhere 100 and 110.
Oh, so you only
traded around it, basically.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no. I'm the biggest
bull around. I think it goes to 10. I'm not even kidding.
I think it goes between a million and 10 million
after the recess.
We have a Deerpoint macro with his hand up.
Deerpoint, how are you, man?
What's up?
Can I say one last thing about the semis?
Because that was really a much more important point.
Okay.
Okay.
The software is the customer of the semis.
And if you want to look at why gold and silver blew up is because silver was 109 ounces to
buy an ounce of gold.
That's insane.
That's six times too much. It blew apart when Trump used his navy to take the oil out of
Venezuela and they juiced oil up by 12 percent. And the commodity trading advisors that had been
dumping silver and everything else because they had to make the calls. People were pulling their
money out of the commodity trading advisors. Trump drove up oil. You didn't need that. And they cleaned out
the shorts. So you had silver blow from 109 to 45. And then copper was the catalyst yesterday.
It was up like 6%. That was signaling you can't short copper to buy silver. It's the same relationship with software and hardware.
The customers of the hardware are the software.
And when people like Druckenmiller say he never learned from losing $3 billion buying the top tick after March 24, 2000,
he said he was buying falling multiples, it's the same thing.
who was buying falling multiples, it's the same thing.
The reason why he was wrong to buy falling multiples, according to himself and me,
is because when an earnings report comes out,
it's based on what they think their customers are telling them.
There is no way Microsoft is going to honor their contracts
when their stock goes below $399 and $349 and below.
stock goes below $399 and $349 and below. So the hardware won't get the call that there's no
business. And then the microns and the sand discs won't get the call that they don't need it until
after the bigger semiconductors are down even more. So when you have software so much lower, you have a 23 RSI on a monthly IGV divided by SMH.
You can't keep that level of, you know, you can't have semis going up while software is collapsing.
So semis will catch down, and then that will cause more pressure on the NASDAQ.
It will put more money in mortgages and treasuries, and that will flatten the curve,
and that will lengthen, strengthen the dollar more, and then it's just bad for the S&P. So
you cannot have software too much higher than semis or semis too much higher. There's got to
be a convergence, just like gold and silver. They just widen too much. And that convergence is going to be lower because the weight of Amazon and Imama, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta.
Apple had a great call.
Their forecasts are ridiculous.
They're not going to make the sales they think in the emerging markets whose currencies are collapsing.
They're making the case.
They're making the case, they're making the story, but the customer of NVIDIA is Microsoft, Meta, SMCI, Dell.
They're not going to be there. So the earnings look good because the analysts are reporting what
they're being told. But when you see the price, that's changing reality. Algos are selling.
They're rebating.
They're call writing.
Whatever they're doing, the prices are going down.
You can't ignore it.
You've got to get a little bounce on a Bitcoin because the vol spiked a little.
That's going to trade through.
Microsoft will trade through.
And then they'll bring down the semis so you can get the crazy low value deep out of the money
puts. You got to buy a lot of time so you don't have to worry about it. But it's unwinding. It's
the same thing as dark fiber. I know they say there's a lot of compute demand, but software
is getting so fast, so quick. What happened in .com is the fiber became 10 times as fast. And then they went
bankrupt because there was no demand for more of the hardware. The idea that people think hardware
is permanent. How many cycles did anyone who's been along in this market, oh, you need software,
then hardware, then Sony bought a movie studio so they could have software and the Walkman.
It goes through cycles, but you have price discovery
in software. It's just a disaster. It's a bear market. Don't ignore reality. And they're the
customers. So it's only a matter of time. And when Micron is up, you know, to 400, SanDisk is up to
600, it's great for trading. Wabi told you, look at it. Maybe make some money on the long side.
But those are the last cats to
work. You know, there's nothing left there. It's just they're the customers. You can make it more
fancy. This machine, that machine, just look at these giant multi, multi-trillion dollar ETFs.
And when there's no money to hold it up, nobody's got the guts to short the puts.
No dealer in their right mind would say, I could short the put well. They won't. No price. So you'll get it to go down another big
leg. Remember, we are only, what, $150 from taking out this week's low. And then on May 11th,
we wipe away all of the price action, all of the price action from the April 2nd Liberation Day.
And on April 21, I went out screaming at the top of my lungs,
volatility suppression immediate by fame.
But those data points all go away on May 11th.
And that means all these companies are going to be on the 52-week low list.
Dozens, dozens have multiple dozens.
The money is leaving tech.
So you Bitcoiners should be looking
what is a disaster in tech
and lean on it and lean on it
in size.
Just to make the most
out of like the remaining time.
Dear point.
I'm going to do a circle.
Dear point and then George Noble, small caps, Dear Point.
What's up, man?
Hey, guys.
Sorry.
A lot covered here.
So I was going to come up on kind of Tina's point on EMs.
on EMs. I actually would have to give some gentle pushback to David's point. I don't think that there
I actually would have to give some gentle pushback to David's point.
is much correlation between emerging markets, weakening of their currency and inflation.
Actually, it tends to be quite the opposite because it tends to improve their terms of trade
because most of these are capital accounts surplus running nations, India being one.
are capital accounts surplus running nations,
India being one.
But like another one that's been actually a great trade
and you've been short the currency
and along the equity markets has been Turkey.
Turkey has seen what almost a 700% devaluation
in their currency, maybe more than that.
But their equity markets in dollar terms over the last three years
are up 225%. So, you know, that's been a great trade. Chile's been a great trade. I think,
you know, Brazil's going to start to become a great trade. India was a great trade even when
their currency was devaluing, the nifty had actually performed
well throughout that devaluation up until relatively recently. So, I mean, I don't think
that this idea of, you know, an overall weaker currency is probably going to have much of
an effect on equity markets. And I mean, Turkey's been a great kind of base case for that. Overall,
even on the kind of the mortgage idea, I mean, I don't think mortgage
rates are going lower. The curve continues to steepen. Two's tens are at 70 basis points.
The S curve, the vast majority of mortgages in the United States are about 300 basis points out
of the money. So you would almost need a 350 to 400 basis point move. And my firm, we trade
mortgage-backed securities almost on a daily basis.
So pretty familiar with the space. And, you know, even if you look at prepayment speeds,
they're essentially on the floor for the vast majority of that. So again, I mean,
me and David have gone back and forth on this. I don't personally see it. And kind of the last point, banks are fine. I did kind of an econometric study today, which is on capital shortfall, which is kind of
a Garsh model. But overall, in the United States, the expected capital shortfall of banks in the
United States has been reduced by almost 50%. So overall, banks have improved tremendously. They've de-leveraged a lot.
They've de-risked on their trading books. Overall, banks, I think, they haven't done well because
the curve kind of flattened with the whole Trump stuff and all of that. But overall,
net interest margins continue to be healthy. They continue to post solid numbers if you looked at
Goldman or if you looked at B of A. So it's kind of hard to see any sort of deterioration for the banks overall.
So, I mean, I'm much more optimistic overall.
I think the curve is going to continue to steepen.
The dollar against certain pairs is probably going to do great.
But overall, I mean, I think that you have to kind of look on a cross-by-cross basis and not at the Dixie.
But, yeah, that's kind of just the points that I wanted to make very high level.
A couple of quick things.
The two-year yield continues to melt down.
The two-year yield going down, every basis point it declines, brings more carry trade and causes us to flatten the curve.
So while you're seeing some local steepening in a 2 and a 10, that 510 is not buoyant.
And so if you thought the curve was gonna flatten
50 basis points, wouldn't that change your view
of the dollar, of the banks, of mortgage prepayment speeds?
We now have more six percenters than we have three percenters.
And that's $3 trillion up there.
Okay.
You don't need all of them.
You just need some of them.
And the adjustable is a 540 on the five-year, one-year.
50 basis points are in the fours.
We had a 150-something prepayment, a refi from a low base this last week, 180 the prior week.
My work says the curve is going to flatten.
Your work says it's not.
If it wasn't going to flatten, I'd agree with everything you said.
Everything you said I'd agree with.
On the two-year, and I'm not sure if you have Bloomberg or anything like that,
but on the two-year, I would disagree because if you look at the carry-to-roll penalty on the two, that's almost entirely gone.
And so like two's five steepeners are probably going to end up doing extremely well as well.
We are not going to hold 340.
We're not going to hold 325 on the two-year.
Just because that penalty on carry and roll down is almost entirely gone.
I think it's like total is something like four basis points.
At 340, at 330, at 320, that two-year goes.
It lifts two-year note volatility, which siphons the volatility out of bond volatility.
And that is a volatility curve flattener, which will then lead to a price
flattener, which will then lead to a mortgage accelerator. So I'm just saying we only differ
on the shape of the curve. I see my work says it's going to bull steepen, then roll to a bull
flatten, and then the emerging markets, of course what you said is right under a stable walkdown of rates,
and it's very healthy for your balance of payments.
And that's what Argentina keeps on not doing properly,
by not letting the currency go well enough to really balance their payments.
My point is, Indonesia and Korea are not the same.
Indonesia doesn't have money in the reserves.
India has.
Korea is intervening,
but it's going to get sloppy in Indonesia,
the fourth largest country in the world,
and it's going to start a contagion.
But I'm just saying it's predicated on flattening and dollar strength.
If you don't get those two which I see
almost no way that couldn't happen
then I'm going to agree with everything you say
my word says that we're going to get dollar strength
after flattening
and the flattening can't be stopped
and you don't see it
and I totally accept and respect you
but that's what I'm expecting
and the consequence is all the things you say
swaps will become more punishing for the banks
it'll
be very ugly
and so as the curve flattens
and the banks go lower and lower
it's more supply on the S&P, more supply
on the NASDAQ
and the emerging markets are another piece of fuel
if we don't get curve flattening
and dollar strength, we're not going to get what I'm looking for.
But I expect those two.
Just last point.
I mean, I think because really
it was to Tina's point. I mean, me
personally, I think LATAM
will probably still do extremely
well. I mean, Turkey has done
extremely well, but again... They're separate
from everywhere in the world. You know that.
They're separate. They're separate. Exactly.
They're not East Asia.
Talk about independent Fed, right?
If you don't cut, you're dead.
And also, I have a lot of people on the ground in Turkey, so it's much easier.
That's the things with EMs.
But again, on the ground, and again, it's going to be EM to EM, because of how high
inflation has been in Turkey, because of what Erdogan did.
So many people like the domestic population, I think it's like 82 percent of the Turkish population now is actually buying equities on their phones like Americans do.
Right. Because it's the only way for them to try to beat out that inflation is pushing themselves so far out of the risk.
Can you tell me when he gets cancer and dies?
Yeah.
You know, he has cancer, but it went away.
Like we're so how like sometimes let's not cure all the diseases, right?
That's how you get rid of dictators.
No, but I agree with what I mean.
It's been a great market.
It's been an absolutely great market.
It's not deep.
It's not liquid. It's run by a thug and you can an absolutely great market. It's not deep. It's not liquid.
It's run by a thug.
And you can make money in anything.
You're talented.
I'm just saying the primary frame is you, Harley Bassman, created the move index.
Virtually everyone thinks steeper and mortgages won't go. And I don't see how this adjustable rate
is going to scrape so much paper off of these banks,
they're all going to have to go into the long end
to neutralize the prepayments.
They're not going to be able to re-underwrite those.
They're already doing a lot of retention,
and a lot of this paper is going to go to independents.
So we'll watch it together,
but what I'm looking for is a flatter curve leading to a more policy support
out of the rest of the world.
And then that's going to be dollar strength.
And then our Microsofty is going to go, you know,
they're going to look for ED pills because they have tremendous elevation
dysfunction.
They can't work it out.
Let's hear from George. George, what's up, man? Welcome.
Hey. Thanks for having me.
Just a couple thoughts. Peter Lynch is pretty cool, too, man.
I'm sorry. What did you say? No, I'm saying that I see
your bio. You worked alongside Peter Lynch. I think
he's the greatest of all time to be
honest um i looked at a lot of his old stuff um from the 80s and 90s when i first got in markets
like nine years ago so it's great to have you up man thanks so um i don't know i i uh i guess what am, what's top of mind for me right now? I mean, my biggest conviction is the rotation we're seeing in markets. Um, you know, the, uh, physical markets, eating the virtual market. Um, I think energy materials, bar markets, all that stuff looks great.
I'd run, don't walk away from tech and software as fast as possible.
The AI trade is increasingly being called into question.
And we'll continue to be.
So I expect to continue to add Azure there.
And if people want to talk about the indices, it's kind of a fool's errand.
It's really a market of stocks.
And you've got indices very much influenced by the MAG-7.
But I think there's a lot to do in markets right now on the long side.
I think energy stocks look terrific
I think
emerging markets look terrific
actually
I'm not really happy that gold and silver
sold off today
it's crazy how much they've gone up
as someone put on X
gold crashed levels I think
January 22nd.
Silver, I think, January 10th.
Correction was to be expected and welcomed.
I'm actually very bullish on gold and silver.
Looking at it, I think at the end of the year, they're going to be much higher than where they are now.
Whether they go down more here, who knows, could well do so.
But I think the incredible volatility we're seeing
should be a warning to everyone.
One feature of this market has been no mean reversion on anything.
Everything goes to extremes,
goes much further than you could ever imagine it would.
I mean, I don't care.
You could take the biggest silver bowl out there.
I mean, if you told them that silver is going to be 120,
you know, like, that's crazy.
So just because silver fell so much today,
yeah, it grabs the headlines, all the talking heads want to go crazy.
But silver's done nothing wrong.
I mean, it's still way above its moving averages.
So, you know, could silver go to 60?
Sure.
But do I think silver is going to be 150 or 200 by the end of the year?
Yeah.
That gold's going to 8,000?
Yeah.
Do I think the dollar's going down?
Yeah.
Would I short bonds?
Yeah.
Do I think American market's going to do well?
Yeah.
Are energy stocks really cheap, undervalued, and oil prices too low yeah i wrote up southwest
airlines last week on my sub stack stock was up 19 yes and good numbers i think it looks incredibly
cheap is that a buy yes so it's a market of stocks and i has a lot to do on the long side
there's a lot doing the short side as far as crypto is concerned um you know, it was bearish correctly, bearish wrongly, this, that, whatever.
I've been on the sidelines for her.
I just, you know, I put out a tweet yesterday, a very lengthy tweet about how Bitcoin has failed a major test in particular.
You know, if someone had told you six or 12 months ago
that gold would go to the moon,
tech stocks would do incredibly well,
what's Bitcoin going to do?
I mean, it was a bidding war, $150,000, $200,000, whatever.
And so Bitcoin has failed the test i think anyone i have no position
in bitcoin i just think there are more interesting things to do but i think anyone who's long bitcoin
has to really be asking themselves some serious questions i mean as i put in the tweet yesterday
you know bitcoin's digital golden air just failed its biggest test. And I think Michael Howell, CrossBorder Capital,
has really nailed it as to why this is happening.
Like, why is gold mooning and Bitcoin can't get out of its own way?
And it always has to do with China.
China's been buying gold like crazy.
You know, getting out of the dollar trade.
PBOC has been buying tons of gold um but they ain't
buying bitcoin and so that's a tell and it's the whole thing about store value you know sometimes
bitcoin's a risk asset sometimes it's a store of value i mean the scenario keeps changing
but to the extent that the bitcoin folks, you know, they were fetting,
they were hailing the institutionalization of Bitcoin,
the fact that went mainstream with ETFs and this, that, and everything else,
to me, that's a huge negative, not a positive.
And the reason I say that is because the increasing institutionalization of the product
has resulted in declining volatility.
And I believe high vol and the get-rich-quick aspect of Bitcoin
has been one of the main drivers that the DJing crowd has been attracted to.
And as vol comes down and it shows no sign of reviving,
vol's just going to sleep.
In fact,
it was a warning sign that one of the reasons
to be worried about silver and gold,
I mean, silver and gold were having orderly
advances until September.
And then they kind of
became, GLD and SLV kind of became
meme stocks. So you had the wrong people
owning these things.
Which was great. It was intoxicating on the way
up, but the car went into reverse,
and we've seen what's happened in the last couple days.
This too shall pass, though.
It's not the real reason why this stuff is going up,
and why it continues to go up.
But the fact that Bitcoin has not been able to get out of its own way
in the face of all this is really worrisome.
And when all you've got is narrative and price
it's a problem i mean if there was ever a time when bitcoin should be appreciating
it's now and i don't want to hear any more about this four-year cycle nonsense it's just it's all
crap all right um bitcoin is showing itself the market will show itself i have no idea what's
going to happen uh but again if there's ever a time that bitcoin should be doing well it's now
and bitcoin has failed this test with flying colors so i'm not long bitcoin i'm not short bitcoin
you know there's your portfolio there are opinions you don't have to just have an opinion
on something doesn't mean you have to have a position like might rather be long energy and precious metals and a bunch of other stuff and southwest airlines that i could go on
i just ignore it and um i think the extent that momentum is such a powerful factor in the in the
bitcoin uh thesis people are getting bored of it they're panicking out and i think this idea that oh
you know it's going to go going to moon again no no not going to happen because the vol is
disappearing and i don't think it's coming back so that's it's a market of stocks there's a lot
to win alongside i don't share the doom and gloom procrastinations of some i just think
I think bond yields are going up, not down.
interest rates are going i think bond yields are going up not down i think housing is dead
I think housing is dead.
So that's it.
There's a lot to do, but it's a market of stocks.
Can I ask a quick question?
Sure.
And it's for both David and George.
So I don't know if you guys have noticed,
there is a proliferation of what they call yield funds.
Yield max is the perfect example of them, but there's actually tons of them.
I was surprised to see that Spiders actually has this in their sector funds.
You'll notice that they have a sector fund and that's followed by an I.
followed by an I.
And what they are doing is they're selling calls.
And what they are doing is they're selling calls.
Now, this is actually a terrible strategy
because they all do badly
and you actually create a tax liability in the process.
Some of it's return of capital,
but you actually create a tax liability.
But this structural call selling,
and I think the reason they exist
is because retail loves dividends.
They think, ah, the dividend is, you know, it's real.
But you destroy the asset of the underlying security.
So it's, as I described it to one person the other day, it's like paying myself a dividend by taking $100 out of my left pocket
and then giving it to my right pocket. And then my right pocket feels so much better because it has
a dividend. Is there any structural impact that you can see occurring with this call selling?
I mean, right now it's probably way too small to matter. And I don't know how much bigger it has to get for it to have one.
But do either of you guys have any opinion on this or is it just like too early to talk about?
I don't have an opinion on that product per se, Tina.
But you actually touched on something which is very important.
That's just options.
And I think that's going to be very careful.
I think that could be a source of real problem more generally.
As we saw today, you know,
silver went to my 30% in one day or something like that.
People selling volatility.
I mentioned earlier prices, you know,
not mean reverting going further
directions than you could possibly could imagine especially as liquidity starts to dry up I think
you're going to see some optional later problems and we had the volmageddon thing a number of years
ago um 2018 I can't remember so long ago I I think this options business is going to be a problem.
I'm aware of these yield max things.
I haven't really looked at them much.
It's a loser product.
I'd never own them.
But whether that's going to be a source of trouble.
I lost George.
I don't know if anybody else did.
If you've ever been in a relationship,
some people want to be lied to.
Investors want to be lied to.
These structured products are likely true.
If anyone remembers, in March of 2020,
oil went negative $49 and closed at minus 42.
That was a Chinese structured note where you were getting paid a yield based upon the change in the price of crude oil.
And they only had a provision for rolling at the end of the month.
One month there was no bid.
They had to sell it all or take delivery in downtown Beijing of 2 million barrels of oil.
So they just sold it into enormous loss.
These things always work locally.
But anytime there's any kind of leverage, it goes bad at some point.
Unfortunately, it goes bad at a point where many other things are going.
Just imagine yesterday you were selling a call,
okay, and volatility is exploding. You might not even make money if the market goes down when
you're selling a call because the volatility of the call went up more than the price went down.
went up more than the price went down. So the markets have no liquidity. But this is exactly
what I'm talking about. I've been talking about for 18 months when the NASDAQ stopped outperforming
the S&P. It started 2024. It had a 4% appreciation versus the S&P until July 9th or July 10th of 2024. That was the last day the
NASDAQ outperformed the S&P since the low on November 21, 2008. Now, since then, we had rate
cuts, the elimination of QT, the introduction of QE, a trillion and a half of liquidity net,
and then 175 of cuts and 50. So they're pumping in all the
liquidity in the world, and we can't get the NASDAQ to outperform the S&P when it just did that by
350% over the prior period of time. And with all the liquidity, you're creating all kinds of
distortions and prices. And I pointed out that I've never seen in 47 years
an option, a call price having no skew at an all-time high.
How is that symmetric risk?
It's because people are funding in short calls
and staples health utilities.
Go look at the option.
I'm not advising anyone to buy options.
They're way above most people's understanding, even when they think they're experts.
If you never worked with anyone on a dealer desk, they make mistakes. Okay. You don't have the
backup in many times. Most people, 95% of people who trade options lose money. But if you just
look as information at the cost of the calls for Coca-Cola, okay,
or McDonald's, there's like no premium for the SKU. That's not normal. That's not healthy.
And that's not sustainable. You have people's short stuff because you have, like, Jepi and Jepcute. Do you know what a disaster they were? The J.P. Morgan funds that sell calls?
They lose the good stuff.
They lost NVIDIA, and they have all the garbage.
So options are very dangerous.
People say, oh, let me write the call so I don't have to pay the tax.
Yeah, you won't have any profits.
So there's a distortion. There's an imbalance. And everyone is relying. People say, oh, let me write the call so I don't have to pay the tax. Yeah, you won't have any profits.
So there's a distortion, there's an imbalance.
And everyone is relying, and I respect him. He's certainly the smartest technical analyst in fixed income in Twitter world.
And there's nobody close.
Okay, I completely disagree with him on the shape of the curve over time.
I respect everything he says.
He's the smartest out there.
But because he's smart, and he's right so often,
and he's wrong so rarely,
he has every right to be committed to his view.
And since he's not on massive leverage, it doesn't really matter.
And since he's not on massive leverage, it doesn't really matter.
He'll adjust if things change.
But the whole system is based on local stability
caused by the policy interference of a Federal Reserve
that diverged from every other Federal Reserve
going back to its creation in 1913.
Alan Greenspan deflated the innovation expansion
when we went up 450% since October 10th, 1998 till March 24th. He just let it deflate,
minus 57. Hacks 777. He talks about, you know, because he's recovered and everything's fine,
but he lost, he was down 26% in five minutes. It blew him up. He was the biggest trader of
NASDAQ futures. I happened to catch, just
last point, I have to catch on
April 17th, the risk of a
second emergency conference call
on September 5th, 01.
Greenspan, they were going to
release Cisco warnings.
And I told Steve Cohen, I said, you should get the
front flat. It's too much of a risk.
And it happened. It was up 16%
in five minutes.
I got to wrap up here soon. So the last sentence is, the market is fully deformed,
highlighted by the last question. So that's why it's acting crazy. So you should be taking less
risk because the market's crazy. Don't think it's crazy a little and it's going to be fine later.
It's only a little crazy
because they used up all their ammunition.
Be warned.
Everything you've been doing that's not working,
it's a signal.
Do what's working and do it less.
Let's go.
Well, guys, I'm going to go ahead
and wrap it up here.
I want to thank David, Tina, Dear Point, George Noble.
I want to thank Naka. i want to thank david tina dear point george noble i want to thank
naka i want to thank prometheus and everyone else who uh came up to talk today hope you all enjoyed
the show in case this is your uh first time tuning in my name's wabi i go live here on the because
bitcoin account to host the show that you guys are listening to right now called market talk
i go live here throughout the week at 3 30 p.m est i'm usually
joined by prometheus and a good set of speakers here up on the panel shows usually last anywhere
between an hour and a half to three hours sometimes four or five or even six hours depending on the
day volatility and all that good stuff so we talk all things crypto bitcoin uh we talk trad fi really anything
that's tradable we discuss and i hope you guys enjoyed the show and for those of you that uh
have tuned in over the last few months and years thank you all so much for tuning in
but in case you guys are new feel free to follow the because bitcoin account feel free to also
follow my personal account here's co-host k king wabi and also follow all the other speakers all these spaces
are recorded in case you missed out or want to circle back to a few moments that you might have
missed not only do we have spaces show for you guys that are enthusiastic about all things markets
but we also have a youtube show that show is called market check that's over on our youtube
as i stated typically hosted at 11 a.m esc that show is focused on all things ta so if you guys
are into charting and all that stuff you guys can check out that show we're very interactive with
our audience there and uh it's quite a diverse community over on youtube compared to uh x so not only do we have a youtube
show to start off your morning we also have an afternoon spaces to wrap up your day going into
the market close and we also try to do our best to be very fast when it comes to uh posting real
time market news anything that might happen in tradfire crypto land so we
have live streams we have news updates so think of because bitcoin has a one-stop shop for all things
market related stuff whether it's live stream content written content all that good stuff
and for those of you that are looking for a community to join we do have an inner circle
alpha group covering multiple full aspects of the crypto and
trad fi space the link to that is in our bio vr website and you can check out all of our testimonials
from individuals that have been with us for a very long time and if you have any questions in regards
to that you can send us a dm you can send uh myself a dm Here is King Wabi, the affiliate badge.
You can send anyone with an affiliate badge a DM, and we'll hook you up with a nice discount.
So that being said, guys, have a good rest of your weekend, and I'll see you all on Monday at 3.30 p.m. EST.
So once again, feel free to follow the BecauseBitcoin account and all the other speakers.
Take care, guys. god bless you all peace
