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Market Talk- alt season soon!?INSANE Pump for crypto incoming!?
Recorded: Sept. 19, 2025 Duration: 1:11:48Space Recording
Short Summary
Crypto markets are poised for growth as equity markets show bullish trends, with significant weekly closes for major indices and expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed. Influential figures like CZ are driving narratives that could lead to increased investment in new tokens and altcoins, suggesting a favorable environment for crypto enthusiasts.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.ご視聴ありがとうございました第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章 第1章お疲れ様でした。ん
ん Oh Thank you. I Thank you. I'm We'll be coming around just stronger free and brave.
Never long if you can't just make me promise from the grave.
With my time and the grandkids forever to survive. We can't come on again and to the sky.
ちょうどん
Please, please, please.
ああああああああ
ああああああああ
んん Hey, yeah. I just, I'm a fan chair, I think this is a fan chair.
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Yeah!
Yeah, you. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. Guys, welcome, welcome, welcome.
Donnie sent you co-host invite brother.
And today's Friday, guys.
Usually on Fridays, I like having some of you up here to talk shop.
So if you're interested in talking about the markets
with us go on ahead and hit that request button i'll probably bring you up during the last call
it 15 20 minutes but guys what an insane weekly close for the equity markets the qqq closing in
at 600 s p closing in at 6700 crypto kind of lagging behind there are some anomalies though
there is something under the hood that's brewing that really reminds me of what occurred uh i think
in q4 of 2023 and uh that's in regards to cz and the tick tickers that he's been mentioning, one of them being Aster.
And there are some other tickers as well, which could, again, could be competitors to Hyperliquid,
even though their products kind of suck.
Aster is not really a good product, if I'm being honest, but it's showed by CZ and the B&B cartel.
So we'll see what happens, man.
If history is any indication, then what you want to do is pay attention to what CZ is doing.
And in 2023 and in 2024, going into Q4, he started to tweet about Price relentlessly
and honestly being one of the biggest bull posters one of the
most sound bull posters ever he doesn't really tweet or rather post now that this is called x
in uh in cryptic messages he just tells you flat out that bears are gonna be wiped off the face of
the earth and we do have the iwm lag, so further risk out on the curve.
Beta is not doing the best today.
But, brothers, we don't trade day to day.
This is more like month to month, quarter by quarter.
And I see a narrative brewing, man.
I really do.
And pump is accumulating before the next leg higher.
At least that's what I think.
I think this thing is honestly pulling off the next leg higher at least that's what i think i think this thing
is honestly pulling off the uh say 2023 fractal where once they broke out of its um all-time high
or rather the price that it launched that was the first 24 to 48 hours it went parabolic for a bit
and then chilled out pulled back and that's exactly what pump is doing and all it's
gonna take is just a little bit of patience everyone wants to talk about prices when they're
going up parabolically but during times of accumulation real accumulation after a massive
move a little bit of a pullback there's not much excitement right and that's when you really want
to start accumulating some bags because
again you look at the equity markets equities look like they're actually about to melt up after
you start seeing the s p 10 plus percent above its prior all-time high that's when you see
crypto really start to move and we've seen this trend before we've seen it before and um
And we've seen this trend before. We've seen it before.
And that's actually the Brightline train passing by me right now.
I've decided to speak for today's show outside of my balcony.
And let me tell you, man, it's actual good weather today.
It's been raining down here in South Florida almost every single day over the last month.
It's quite crazy, to be honest.
So I want to enjoy the sun for most of the day.
But, oh, and also, also, you guys will love this.
If you don't like drinking water, squeezing a lime into it honestly does wonders.
It honestly does wonders.
Just get a regular lime or a lemon.
You squeeze it.
You mix it up a bit.
And you'll have some great water.
But either way, guys, either way, going back to the yap about markets,
Fed is expected to cut two more times.
And again, when you have the S&P about a chad 10 plus percent higher from its February high,
I think that's truly when alts take that huge leg up that I've been expecting with others BTC.
Others BTC has been slowly grinding up.
I think it's actually about to put a fresh weekly high
but i'm talking about a weekly candle of like 30 plus percent and if you guys remember if you guys
remember um the all-time high for the s p in late 2021 i think it was about 4 800 or something like
that and right when the s p blew,300, that's when you started seeing
alts going absolutely berserk. So I know it's a bit of a weird take, but that's just something
that's just something that I've noticed. You want the indices to actually be in deep price
discovery, not just price discovery. I'm talking about deep price discovery 10 plus percent uh from the years
high or i guess cycle high from the uh from the bear market that we had as i do think that was a
bear market drawdowns of over 20 plus percent and equity land that is a bear market but um look
look, we are now past the FOMC scaries, usually a week or two after FOMC. The next trend starts
to form, and I think we have a good narrative here. Things on chain are at a discount. Things
on soul, whether it's memes or RWAs like cards, and these little downside moves get absolutely destroyed within
two to three days so i'm comfy in my bags i sleep comfy and i'm excited for what's to come but guys
i got donnie up here and um i wanted to keep today a bit of a of a an actual actual shorter show
unless i don't know maybe maybe Uncle Mike shows up.
He's been showing up lately.
I think like twice a week here on these shows.
I know definitely on Fridays he always shows up.
So maybe Uncle Mike will pull through today.
But yeah, guys, if you guys want to come up, just hit the request button and I'll bring you right up.
But before I do that, guys, go on ahead and show some love to the space.
You might be asking yourself, Wabi, how do I show some love to the space?
How do I show my love and appreciation for what you do here on Market Talk?
Well, guys, I've got your answer.
Go on ahead and hit that spaces tab. And after you guys do that, right above our profile pictures, you'll see a nice little link up on the nest that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
So go on ahead and hit up that like button.
Hit up that repost, that retweet button.
If you're excited for Q4, hit up that retweet button.
If you're excited for Q4, up that retweet button if you're excited for q4 smash up
the retweet button guys and just in case you guys didn't know there's actually a new feature that
whenever you hit the like button or the retweet button cz automatically has uh tether print about
10 billion and you guys know what happens once the Tether printer starts going,
prices immediately fall to the upside.
So show some love, guys.
And, of course, I'd love it if you guys want to talk some shot.
But Donnie, the playbook, man, the pages, I hear them.
They're passing by, man.
I can hear Scott Bessette writing the playbook
as a matter of fact I heard he finished chapter two and now he's about to read it very slowly
very methodically and we are now in month seven of when Bessette started to say, just give it six to nine months and you'll see the market
starting to price in a Trump economy. And the S&P is, I think the S&P is what, 7%, 6%
above its February highs. And once we get above that 10% mark, man, I really feel like there's
going to be a huge huge liquidity shift
onto crypto and a lot of this dormant liquidity on solana and even ethereum
is about to go absolutely insane man absolutely insane
i agree bro i agree um thanks for putting the show back up. It's nice to chat in these moments when people are a bit confused
as to why the price is going down in crypto
when equities just continue to go higher.
But we've seen this time and time again.
And the signal you need to take from equities, in my view,
is just that the fundamental macro stuff
that we've been yapping on about since the April lows is playing out.
Those are the larger cap assets that do you know tend to lead the pack uh in the big playbook
and they are going higher like even today i think there was like some sort of stock options expiry
all this kind of stuff and you still got fresh new highs right that was meant to be some sort
of big drawdown or something like that uh and you still continue to go higher. A lot of people ruled out gold at $3,500,
calling for a cycle top on gold,
not really understanding what that cycle is
and what's actually unfolding behind the scenes.
And incrementally so from April, it has played out.
DXY spent time below $100, which is a structurally weak dollar.
And gold was sniffing out the next
breakdown and it broke out. So we're pretty far from a cycle top. You could definitely rule that
out over the next three months. At the earliest with the current leading stuff that you could
look at, maybe six months. But I'm still leaning towards the end of 2026 more than the first six months of 2026, unless we shoot up
very, very aggressively, right? Because that's different. That's different because people get
rich too quickly. And there's just a big reason to sell when prices go up that quickly. So yeah,
I still think there's tons of time. And the fact that you do have these charts confirming what we've been speculating about the playbook
and actually confirming because they signed the one big beautiful bill,
they raised the debt ceiling, they're deregulating the private sector,
the financial sector, and the long list of other things that I won't get into.
And because the prices are appreciating and catching up to that,
it means that market participants are seeing that and they're bidding, right?
They were fighting this trend and equities from the bottom,
literally every single level on the chart.
They were drawing arrows to the downside and comparing it to, you know,
this past cycle, this happened and this exact fit funds rate was here
and we're going lower and all this stuff. And we continue to go higher.
So again, that's validating what we already know is happening behind the scenes.
So because crypto is stalling out just a little bit here, it literally doesn't mean anything.
Think of it as how BTC, you know, raged to 120K and ETH really didn't do anything.
And then all of a sudden ETH just went from 1350
to a new all-time high, right?
Think of that rotation happening from gold
and from stocks into crypto eventually, right?
As we continue to progress in this macro cycle higher.
So it will all happen at once.
And we still haven't even had the gold sorry the BTC over gold chart
be skewed towards BTC's favor which means there hasn't really been any big rotations out of gold
yet because there's probably no reason to rotate out of gold yet there's probably a lot more upside
still to come the fact that we're having this role in the dollar and the subsequent breakout in gold makes me think that even higher is on the cards
as the Fed is cutting into this
sort of slightly elevated inflationary regime.
I think that the DXY has further downside.
They've got a lot more debt to issue over the next two quarters.
That's bearish the dollar.
And a long list of other things over the next
12 months that will send the dollar even lower. So that's going to be more upwards pressure on
gold. But when this does start to overheat, i.e. the liquidity cycle does eventually get to its
very end stage, there will be a big pivot into high risk assets. And especially as it becomes
more obvious that we are actually in an environment
where you should be taking more risk. Of course, the Russell is already sniffing that out as
well. New all time highs. And it still hasn't fully broken out yet. We've discussed it yesterday.
I think was yesterday we were talking about how the Russell has led crypto every other
cycle apart from this one.
And this one's obviously been very catalyst-driven
basically from 20K when the ETF rumor started to be spun up
and then the incremental confirmation of that
all the way until the actual live date when BTC hit 49K
and then rallied all the way to 74K.
It's been a very catalyst-driven adoption cycle for BTC,
which is why the prices have been walked up to where they are right now
or else it wouldn't have happened.
It would have just flowed like every other cycle
where it was the last thing in the risk
or the furthest out on the risk curve
where after equities and Russell and Gold
and everything had done their move,
people would be bidding crypto massively
while that window of opportunity is open.
So we're kind of getting to that same stage now
where all of the tailwinds do flick to crypto,
but it does take time and you can't really pinpoint
exactly when it's going to happen.
But because these levers in the macro side
are in the right direction and they're being pulled,
you know it is going to happen.
These things don't just reverse overnight without playing out first. So yeah, you just got to
keep your eyes on the data that we've been kind of talking about and know that it is headed in
the right direction. And you just have to wait for these technical charts to play out for BTC.
And then you can start having that fun side of the cycle.
But yeah, I shared a chart in the nest of what I'm looking at locally on BTC. And again,
just want to reiterate that the local setup really doesn't matter with all of the confirmations
we've had on everything else. So we're having a little bit of a dip. You're still actually in between 114.9,
which was my key level to get above,
after forming that low,
because that's where we got sent
into that massive liquidation cascade,
where basically I identified that level
as if you flip that,
the accumulation at that low
is more likely than not complete.
And it's now more likely
that we put in a new all-time high
before going to a fresh
low back to 107, for example. And the next key level to really speed up this chart to get above
120, let's say, was that 117.4. And you can see we just deviated above it, didn't get that massive
impulse through it, which that would have been like, okay, now we're actually going straight for
the high. We didn't get that. We were kind of chopping above it and then rejected. But we're still
above 114.9 and below 117.4. So you're still
in no man's land. You can't really dictate where the price is going to go. But if you
lose 114.9, there's a whole bunch of liquidity and demand below,
which I think you're just basically going to set up a higher low. There's nothing to suggest that
you should go to a fresh low here.
And then after, like if you lose 114.9 and you do go to those blue zones,
I think 117 comes next and probably a lot easier
because you can see the price action going up to 117.4 was super choppy, right?
You don't want to see that approaching a key level.
You want to see a big impulse.
You can chop going into it, but if that impulse doesn't come,
you're likely going to roll over for a bit
before you go and test it one more time.
So yeah, I think after we get our local decision here,
if we're going to go to those blue zones or not first,
I think 117.4 is just going to be inevitable for a breakout.
And that should lead past 120, that other red zone I have above,
because it's just liquidity above.
And yeah, I would be targeting a new all-time high after that
pretty comfortably.
And you guys know my targets are 138 to 182 on this next leg.
And then we'll kind of assess from there how it shapes up.
But yeah, it's either a higher low right now,
or you hold above 114.9 over this weekend,
and you shoot above 117.4 next week and begin pricing an upside
because it has been delayed on BTC.
It's massively diverging from gold, from liquidity, from everything.
So it is inevitable.
Anytime we've had these big divergences like this, it's played out.
I remember sharing a total two and coin overlay where there was this massive divergence the downside people
got worried again and it was pointing directly up it was like how is that going to happen and it
ended up happening and uh it went you know cleanly above 4k so yeah just have to give it time and not
you know stress over the local stuff because truly it really doesn't matter.
And yeah, that's kind of what I'm seeing going into the weekend and next week.
Donnie, did someone say divergences, man?
Only bullish ones.
Yeah, it's hidden and it's diverging and it's bullish.
I remember when I was posting those charts in the summertime, bro.
I remember when I was posting those charts in the summertime, bro.
Have you checked out what CZ is doing?
I think the actual co-founder of Tether,
who actually had a one-on-one relationship with Satoshi,
he created something called, I think it's Hemi.
It's either Hemi or Stable.
One of the two, man.
But the big three tickers right now, they're centralized exchange tokens, but also sort of on-chain because they're listed on big exchanges.
One of them is Aster.
The other one is Stable.
S-T-B-L. And then the other one is stable stbl and then the other one uh is hemi and they're
one of those like low flow high fdv tokens and i mean pump was literally i mean and it still is a
low flow high fdv token um same thing with hyper liquid low flow high fdv and when you have the cabals like the actual cabal
not the stupid like on-chain cabals that have like these low ceilings for toppers that we've
seen a lot but like these guys have size bro these guys have size and if you compare them to pump fun
it's almost like night and day bro like to them
pump fun is like an ant the amount of money these guys have and you're talking about
the co-founder of tether you're talking about like the guy behind the largest centralized
exchange in the world and whenever you start having multiple winners not just like on-chain pvp but you actually start having winners that
you can size into with size there's usually a trick a trickle down effect man um at least
at least that's what i'm expecting here bro i think at least in the short term while on-chain
takes a breather a lot of these higher caps that are new they're gonna run and i do believe aster is similar
to avantus and avantus went to like a near three bill fdv and aster right now is like at one ish
so if you compare the coinbase cabal um to binance it's almost like night and day coinbase are children compared to
the binance cartel so what do you think what are you thinking about that bro like what what
do you think the setup is there bro i think it's good bro like any time these large uh
i like to call them kols because they do lead opinions in the space. Like CZ, and they got infinite cash, and they're pushing stuff.
It's drawing liquidity into the sector.
So it does end up flowing everywhere else.
So yeah, I think it's good.
It's always good to have that, just like how you had Tom Lee step into ETH,
and then all of a sudden ETH is the greatest coin buying BTC,
or potentially could
even flip it. You get these narratives
spawning left and right.
CZ pushing these tokens, yeah, it's
good. It just draws people in.
So, yeah.
I still think though, with all of this
narrative, this and this token, that
it's all secondary to the market
conditions, right? You just
need BTC to break out into price discovery.
Form a range, Bitcoin dominance, nuke.
Everything's going to go up.
I stand by that to the end.
So, of course, if those were the conditions now
and you had Aster launching or whatever,
it would just be ripping right now out of control
because that risk appetite is there.
And remember, the market is made up of
two of the most important things, which is basically just liquidity conditions and risk
appetite. We know the liquidity conditions are there because you look at equities in gold and
the dollar and they're all in the right direction. The risk appetite isn't quite there yet because
BTC hasn't broken out successfully into a deep price discovery zone where it can then form that range for alts to actually catch some liquidity.
Once you have that, then everything can excel and these new narratives can do even better.
But I do think that they are going to do well for now.
I just wouldn't expect anything too wild unless we start breaking out. Then yeah, they can explode for sure.
Donnie, let me ask you this, bro. You know I don't really like asking
before you continue. Think of the pump token
right now. If BTC was ripping, let's say it already had
ripped to like 150, pump would just be like probably 5x higher
than it is now, not more and that's the
thing is the trade on pump still good but it's susceptible to pulling back and reaccumulating
and taking time and all this when it actually like when the market actually plays out
i think i said it in another space the whole floor of the market will escape people which is what
draws so much fomo that is just uncontrollable bids
entering everything. And you don't get these basically opportunities to get back into these
tokens with these big drawdowns, reaccumulations that take time and all this stuff. It's just up,
up, up, pull back, up, up, up. Yeah, that reminds me of the AI ai trade bro some of these things wouldn't really pull back but when
they did literally like dude you remember that dude like i remember i'd be like bro like a 60
retrace and then by the time the next show happened they were already back at all-time highs exactly there was countless trades
bro peanut fred goat all the other ai stuff like when they started to move there was no chance you
could get in and if you were trying to target like little rectangles that i use on the chart for
demand and all that kind of stuff it just doesn't even go there there's just too much money flowing
in and that's what a real run looks
like so yeah we just need the conditions to play out and they are going to play out it's just a
matter of time um and then everything will excel especially this new stuff right because yeah new
tokens like when you have a fresh chart there's kind of just so much speculation as to how high high it can go right yeah yeah man um and uh we are now donnie so check this out we are now
apparently four weeks away from the cycle top those that um still believe in the four-year
having cycle can you believe that man four weeks away that's gonna to be is there an exact date or something yeah so it's usually 18
months like exactly 18 months after the halving but the thing is bro last cycle all markets topped
at the same time uh and that was during that fomc meeting in november when cpi came in at 6%. And then Powell said verbatim,
all right, Kiwi is going to end.
We are now about a transition from Zerp
to a rate hiking cycle.
And that terrified the market.
And some people like...
Go ahead.
Crypto top first?
Well, I mean, most of the move for equities
was already done.
I think the S&p was at like
4700 ish and all it did was like a little hundred point rally um all the way up until the end of the
year which is honestly nothing it's it's it's kind of like what was a cycle top in 2017 19k or 18k
it's still a top right like you're basically at the top so for the most part the
market already got cooked and um i understand nfts ran and all that stuff but i i i don't really
count that man that that was an anomaly i think that was uh an anomaly I think the only NFTs that have actually ran this cycle were Remilia assets like Milady's and Remilios, Pudgy Penguins.
I think Klanosaurs ran for a little bit.
Punks ran.
I don't think Punks actually went into price discovery.
I don't think.
And I think that's what I remember off the top of my head.
Yeah, I remember some alts just continued to run into that,
like, what was it, later March or something of that year?
Yeah, Luna.
Luna.
Yeah.
Yeah, that was a crazy one, man.
My gosh, bro.
And you know what's crazy donnie like the leverage in the system from that cycle isn't here anymore like you don't have any celsius or block flies
or any of that all of that stuff will come bro like there's it'll all come yeah i think that's
what's gonna take eth to 10k and sold to like a thousand it's going to be
like uh fugazi platforms i don't think it's going to be pump fun at least not this cycle
i think pump fun is going to be massive next cycle by massive i mean like like 2017 where
where there was actual retail interest where like it was on the headline news and all that stuff
people were talking about verge xvg if you remember that one people were talking about iota stuff like
that and we haven't really had that this cycle you know so it's i i truly think retail is not
i don't think retail is gonna come i. I just don't. I think it's just like people –
Donnie, I have so much trouble, bro, when it comes to that.
At least the magnitude of 2021, man, it's so difficult.
Maybe people that are rich from TradFi, right, they come in.
The thing with 2021, right, is you didn't even have true demand
for assets. All you had was, I need to
shove into assets because they're printing crazy
amounts of money. Once people lost their
stimmy checks and stuff, you actually look around.
Businesses were cooked.
No one wanted to go out. Things were too expensive.
It was shit. No one wanted to
actually invest money, bro. This time
they're actually, well, globally, you're
kind of coming off this post-pandemic rebuild. That's why I'm thinking that the cycle is going to be longer.
By the time you actually trickle through the economies globally and actually come to some
sort of a positive result coming out of COVID, where people actually will have savings,
their businesses will do a little bit better, all this kind of stuff, it's going to take time.
But that's what's going to cause like real demand for assets. They're just going to be so much higher
up for the people that are now getting their teeth in. And which is why I think the whole setup was
kind of deliberate anyway. You know, to me, just it's so obvious when you have the COVID cycle,
massive inflation, and then you have the rate hikes, and the whole global economy is cooked.
And then all of a sudden, you get the Bitcoin ETF, and the whole global economy is cooked and then all of a sudden you get the Bitcoin ETF
and BlackRock's behind it and Trump runs
for president and he's pro-crypto and all this stuff.
Like, if you look a little bit
deeper, BTC's been
walked to $120k.
You're kind of pivoting slowly
away from the fiat system
into kind of a neutral reserve asset system.
It's all digital
and they've walked BTC to 100K.
They're going to send it much higher.
And most of the population is going to have none of it.
It's just that simple.
But right now, coming out of this pandemic era, let's say,
where, like I said, the whole world was basically cooked.
Anecdotally, if you looked around and still look around,
everyone's still cooked.
But there will be things that are being pulled to kind of fix and basically just liquidity and lowering rates um to fix the setup
so that these people can start you know trying to better their financial situation and that's
what's going to lead to actually having demand for these assets with liquidity ample in the system
system. So 100% retail will be back
so 100 retail will be back just at highest prices
just at highest prices.
And it's going to be probably somewhere deeper
into 2026. I wouldn't
be surprised if not much
retail participation
comes in, let's say, in this first wave
that I'm expecting in the market.
We'll see. Depends how high it goes.
But more so towards
the second half of 26,
if we do have that second wave, a much larger one,
then that's where I would think that basically you'll have
some sort of global frenzy coming into this market.
You just can't help it, bro.
Two, 300k Bitcoin, 15k plus ETH, above 1,000 sold.
And rates are coming down significantly,
which again, the market's not even properly positioned for that.
And the whole global picture kind of pivoting towards short end monetization of debt, which is just going to be, you're an idiot if you basically don't hold any assets while fiat is just being destroyed in real time.
in real time.
The thing is,
as they debase fiat,
it actually feels like the situation
is getting better on a nominal term
because you're like, oh, wow, I have more dollars
and all this kind of stuff.
But your purchasing power is just being robbed.
But yeah.
Go ahead.
Also, sorry,
I just want to jump in real quick.
How are you guys doing um
yeah i think i think we need to see also uh gold really like go into its blow off top because when
you look back like we just need that whole thing to chill out and have capital rotate down um because it just keeps pumping so like i think
when we get the macro top or at least the macro kind of cyclical top for gold i think soonish
maybe i mean i think this year i think once that happens then you see the rotation and Bitcoin really goes.
It kind of played out that way last cycle, too. I mean, gold and Bitcoin have had this lead lag situation for like five years.
So I think base case is that continues, right?
I don't see that changing.
So when we get the blow off top type of thing and gold happening and it
starts chopping sideways again, I think that's when you see Bitcoin run and then it just keeps
rotating down the risk curve. Yeah, exactly. I said that at the start of the space is you have
the leading assets going up first, which is very traditional, right? Stocks and gold leading the
crypto sector just like every other cycle
and then eventually when you do get to the tail end of the liquidity cycle people take more risk
and it just rotates out on the risk group um so much so that you go from bitcoin to eth to old
coins to coins and then it's all you know said and done but we haven't even had that yet because
clearly you look at the bitcoin versus gold chart and it's not in price discovery. It's just a very simple thesis to know that
BTC will gain ground over gold over time if we're heading into a more digital society
day by day. It's just that simple.
Yeah, I mean, we haven't even seen the memes go past last time's all-time high.
We're seeing IWM and these things.
Things aren't in price discovery yet from the last cycle high.
IWM's just like about to go blue sky.
IWM's just about to go blue sky.
Like when you look back at the history,
like once these things have this massive breakout of this,
like,
you know,
corrective four year,
five year cup and handle setup.
I mean,
they run for like a year.
I don't,
you just go back,
go look back at history.
Unless people think it's recession for sure.
But I feel like fading that is smart.
Yeah, I just think if you're going to have a macro top here,
you're just going to have to go much higher first.
But I shared another chart.
It's just Doge over Bitcoin dominance.
It's just such a simple chart to look at
to kind of show you when things get frothy.
And we have had that pivot point on Bitcoin dominance right now.
If you guys just check the nest, it's a super easy visual to look at.
That's Doge from 2014 and obviously Bitcoin dominance below.
You can see at every
pivot point in the Bitcoin dominance chart,
Doge has exploded
on log mode to much
deeper, higher highs. And that's kind of
like the main risk on indicator.
Obviously it's ETH, but when this thing is
breaking out to new
all-time highs, that's
when everything is really going up.
So it's very close
because we've already had the Bitcoin dominance top.
We're just kind of waiting for the follow-through
to the downside on Bitcoin dominance,
which we basically just have to lose the election rally low,
which was 54.4%.
And I think Bitcoin dominance really goes for a big role.
And does Bitcoin dominance uh correlate to like the the
final dollar breakdown and the ism break up does that usually happen at the same time
bitcoin yeah like that breaking down and the dollar breaking down and ism moving up into expansion is that what happens uh bitcoin dominance nuked down
at that point in the prior cycles um you know i mean like going into the actual
donnie just look at just look at the kind of the same thing right like it just indicates that
more risk is being taken in markets yeah yeah so it's all roughly around the same time final nuke
is like the expansion phase and it's interesting too because uh i mean we're i we're gonna get
read ism readings in expansion like it just everything says it like you know arc etf and bitcoin miners and iwm like
all these things are breaking out yeah but again people can't look past the daily chart yeah i mean
but the thing is like if you're if you're getting worried about the local price action and stuff, always ask yourself, what are you actually going to do?
Are you going to sell and sit out?
Pick a side.
Are you going to ride it and not complain?
Or are you going to sell and walk away?
It's that simple.
You have two choices.
I think people are stuck.
Me personally, I would not sell.
So you can do what you want.
But I'm prepared for what's coming.
No, people are just really baked in on the cycle ending at any moment.
So I think people are just freaked out about it.
They're like, oh, it's going to be done at any moment,
and I'm going to round trip it.
Yeah.
I wish you the best of luck if you decide to sell here.
Yeah. Amen. Iron hit a new all-time high bruv but um donnie i think like if we want to look at the early open for dxy and bitcoin
dominance you'll see a little correlation there dominance was nuking uh i think dxy was also
going lower yeah it's all Donnie, when do you think
that gold is going to have
its final blow off top?
I don't know
I'm really expecting DXY to just
continue puking here
over the remainder of this year
so I'm still targeting sub
90 for the dollar
and I'm thinking sub 90 is definitely going to
lead to a 4k gold if not
higher than that so i don't know it just depends how quickly the dollar goes down but is there is
there like it had a little bit of a bounce right now but i'm kind of thinking to fade that bounce
on the dollar and i think it just has another leg lower over the next four weeks the dollar is
basically sitting at the bottom of that huge channel, right? Do you know what level that is to break down out of that thing?
It's like roughly around 96, I think.
But again, I'm targeting sub 90 on the dollar.
So gold already being at 3600.
Yeah, I think it should actually go over $4K.
It could go pretty high to be fair.
And then obviously picture a $4K or let's say $4.something K gold and then you have the rotation into Bitcoin.
That's a massively inflated gold. That is a 10 or more X bigger gold with any sort of percentage of
liquidity coming out of that into BTC
is just going to cause a monstrous rally.
Monstrous rally.
On top of
BTC already being
kind of delayed in price
right here. It should already be higher.
Donnie, it's called
the golden era, bro.
That's what they call the Trump administration.
The golden era.
What does that mean for gold?
Bro, I saw a picture.
I don't know if it was legit.
It was like this golden statue of Trump.
And he's holding a Bitcoin.
Oh, I just found that so funny.
He's actually a G.
Yeah, I mean, it's crazy. he's actually a G. Yeah.
I mean,
it's crazy,
but yeah,
I just think it's interesting.
Like just this whole phase right now.
I like,
I try to listen to bears every once in a while.
And like,
I got bear hold the last two days and I'm like,
man,
these guys are just,
they've been worried like for the last year and
a half they just maybe it's because i'm so young and i haven't lived through like these crazy
things but i don't know man i feel like the longer all these people that these older people with
money are really worried the longer this thing's gonna go
like you know what i mean like people are still shook by earlier this year like they still don't
believe that we're gonna keep going up or you have half the country that are just so disgusted with the administration that
they're just like doom hold probably until he's out of there so like you know we have half half
the money in america thinks like at any moment this thing is gonna break and yeah oh you go ahead sorry yeah and yeah we have half the people in the country that think
it's about about to be over at any minute and well we're not gonna get the full blown
macro top until those people somehow think like okay i think we're okay now like well i think everything
is all good you know yeah obviously that's going to be at higher prices like green candles just
fixes everyone's mood but there's there's a lot of things to dissect from that is one
macro tops they don't just you know happen in a week it's just like boom you hit the
top bang you go to zero it's like people are just like i don't know they're thinking in way too short
of time frames even the dot-com bubble it was like a 700 day topping structure right you could get
something simple not talking 700 days but you could get something similar for the macro top of
bitcoin where it distributes for six months straight with deviations
of the high. Let's say 250, 260, 270, 280, 290, 300, 310, boom. And then you get the hammer or
the lower high and then you go lower and that could take six months, right? While altcoins go
crazy in between that distribution range. So if you had a 700 day top in 1990, can you imagine the rotation? Can you imagine the rotation?
Can you imagine the rotation
into small coins?
Bro.
I honestly think that's what's going to happen.
Yeah, somebody's
going to... Drawing the exit liquidity
at those kind of prices is a lot easier
because, again, it feels like it's
going to go up forever infinitely
at 300k or whatever.
And it's likely going to be a massive distribution range where old coins are just going nuts.
And then obviously the Bitcoiners who are up a ton,
they're going to be rotating like crazy into the old coin sector,
making even more money and wanting to buy the Bitcoin dip.
And then the second thing is all these doomers,
they've been dooming since the bottom of this market.
Like literally since 15k all the way up till now, they've been dooming since the bottom of this market. Literally since 15k all the way up to now,
they've been dooming. I remember after we had the 74k high and we had the range for like six months,
people were convinced that was going to roll. The whole way up, the whole time it was happening,
it's going down way lower, it's going back to 30, it's going back to 20, all this kind of stuff.
And it never happened. And then once we broke out, they were like,
oh yeah, 85k is the top.
This is an exit rally or whatever.
You just went straight to 109.
So I don't know.
They've been consistently wrong.
And the more time, because I've only started actually posting on X
since January 2024.
I didn't even barely look at X before that.
I don't really know look at X before that.
I don't really know all these people in the space and all this kind of stuff.
The more time I've spent here, the more I'm like, wow.
Obviously, I'm here for business, connections, growing my brand, all this kind of stuff.
But I'm like, man, there is so much noise on this app. When I spend time away from the app, it's just nice, crystal clear.
Everything is set.
And I come back to this app and it's just nice, crystal clear. Everything is set. And I come back to this app,
and it's just people crying, complaining, people calling tops, like all this kind of stuff. It's insane. And I don't know if it's the algo doing that, because you shouldn't be bearish here,
you should actually be bullish, or what. And I'm assuming when things do flip bullish,
that it's just going to be so hard for people to sell. And you might not think that now,
because you're praying for a three, four or five x and get out, you're going to be so hard for people to sell. And you might not think that now because you're praying for a 3, 4, 5x and get out.
You're going to literally be brainwashed to hold your bags because it's going to feel like you're going to run until 2030.
It's probably the algos.
Look, hold on.
I just want to say something real quick.
Hold on, man.
You want to know what's not priced in, brothers?
Binance coming back to the U.S.
It's exchanges going non-KYC again, man.
Binance, I'm confident that Binance is going to come back to the U.S.
And if you actually look, Donnie,
when Binance started saying that they can't facilitate to U.S. customers, a lot of alts topped out.
And that was when Doge topped out that same week.
And I remember because I had to withdraw the last bit of my funds during the last day, which was in late July or something like that.
during the last day, which was like in late July or something like that.
So the day that they announced that they weren't able to facilitate to U.S.
customers, alt topped in early May.
And then the last day to withdraw your liquidity from Binance or do any sort of
trade was right when BTC bought them that 28K in late July.
Wouldn't that be something, Donnie?
Like Binance coming back and it would just be euphoria bro people would just flow and flock over to binance and
they'd have motion again i love how you always try and find one particular catalyst to set the
market off yes dude the setup the setup is unreal you love crime bro it's it look
man it's cool to be like oh man the xyz person's bearish i don't understand why people are bearish
like look man some people they just come on this platform to facilitate to a niche audience
whether it's being super bullish or super bearish look Look, dude, if you are a normal – well, not normal because no one's normal.
But if you are an able-bodied person who is capable of critical thinking, then you know assets are up and to the right.
And holding dollars for an extended period of time will destroy you and you will end up eating slop
and quite frankly at a job where you don't really respect anyone around you that is the case for
most people they have jobs that they're just trying to make ends meet with people they don't
really respect to be honest and that's the doomer scenario, isn't it, Donnie? The dollar depreciating while risk assets go up,
and then before you know it, they have to use Klarna to take out a loan to get a Happy Meal,
and they can no longer afford their vacations to go to Cancun,
which is honestly a third-world-like city, by the way.
It's honestly quite nasty.
The water is filthy.
The food, for the most for
the most part it gives you food poisoning and it's kind of like a large a large port-a-potty
of a city a lot of these like mega tourist imagine wanting to go on vacation man where everyone that
has like a spare 500 bucks goes to vacation you are essentially vacationing in a large border
potty but um that is the doomer scenario isn't it donnie depreciating dollar risk assets go up
i mean it's been unfolding since you know 2000s basically yeah you've just been slowly being
getting priced out of everything it's not just just risk assets, it's homes, it's everything. So if you're not trying to account for that
inflation that you do have to try and beat, then yeah, you're just going to slowly lose
over time unless you're a monster cash flow generating business
or person or whatever. Other than that, yeah, you're going to have a hard time.
Let me ask you another thing, man.
You are one of the most consistent people
here on this platform, not only when it comes to posting, but also when it comes to speaking.
And frankly, I think if you're in this market long enough, you're going to have a network
eventually. And I feel like the reason why people get so burnt out in this market,
which I really don't know why. I don't know why you're exhausted of clicking a few buttons,
reading a few posts, looking up a few tickers. There's nothing exhausting about that. As a
matter of fact, if you want to know what exhausting is, get a job in construction,
get a job in construction both day and night, work 18 hours. That is exhausting, okay?
Being in telegram groups, getting alpha info, that's not exhausting.
Posting is not exhausting. It's really not. And if you post on here, it means you want attention.
Even if you don't really acknowledge that, the fact that you post, you want attention even if you don't really acknowledge that the fact that you
post you want attention bro like you are seeking an audience but what i wanted to ask you donnie
and you know as well as i do one thing i really don't like doing is asking a lot of questions
um but i thought it could be an interesting topic to discuss right now that like at least i think
it's a good time to wrap up before i pass it over to ragsy but like bro what keeps you like consistent um other than
family of course right we have people that we provide for and all that stuff but like
dude what keeps your hunger alive for the market bro like you've been doing these spaces with me
for like 10 months now consistently three to four times a week and you consistently post
not just post bro but it's these actionable setups playbook after playbook step by step
lower time frame mid time frame high time frame and there's something to say about consistency bro but like bro what's what what's what's the
secret formula bro what is what is the the donny dicey playbook man that keeps you so energized
uh it's a deep question bro no i i take care a lot of i take care of a lot of people i'm the
youngest in my family but um you know i try and make sure that no one has to work. So that's kind of been my motivation ever since I started on this app.
And then, of course, I started a paid group.
So that's an even bigger additional reason why I can't stop.
So yeah, I don't like to lay people down when they rely on me.
And that's why I post.
And even growing the audience on X, I get DMs all the time, people worried
it's hard to make money
in this day and age so I just try and give
the best alpha and yeah
I can't just walk away kind of thing
so I'll just be here
You're the true man of the people bro
maybe you'll win KOL of the year
We'll see, if we get
bucky to a buck then potentially hey bro dude if solana and based firecoin like three
bill honestly man people are really lowering their targets for like the whole market i really think
like if we if we had last cycle doge going to 70 billion and we're about to 3x the total market
cap of crypto,
I just don't see how coins like Pepe,
or it literally doesn't matter what the ticker is,
they've solidified themselves in XYZ level in the space.
Coins like Pepe, they should be able to hit 50 or even match what Doge did last time.
And Doge should swamp what it did last time.
And that means it opens the door for every other token,
whether it's utility or meme,
to hit these stupid targets like
Fartcoin on Seoul literally hitting
30-40 billion.
I just think it's going to
take a bit of time and that's why I think
the cycle itself
probably has legs until
the end of 2026.
Along with all of the other macro confirmations.
It's just hard to see right now because, you know, I guess we've been kind of tortured for
the last three years with stop, start, stop, start, stop, start. But you just haven't had
the expansion. And again, when you take it back to what I said about kind of we're coming out of
this post-pandemic sort of rebuild globally it just
makes sense like everybody is struggling but they are trying to fix the problem you know and the
only way they can fix it is by injecting tons of liquidity lowering rates and basically creating
some sort of environment where you can stimulate economic activity and we're just pivoting to that
now obviously other countries around the world have been trying to stimulate and do stuff,
but it's still in the first or second innings of that.
And the best part of it comes towards the later end
of that easing cycle.
So again, it just points to the end of 2026.
You tie in the fact that Trump is trying to get reelected
at midterms.
They're going to make sure everything is headed in the right direction with the promises that they gave to the low to middle
income households that voted them in and yeah just all points there uh which means higher for longer
and probably much higher than mike alfred mode mike alfred mode log mode bro log mode that's my new
mode bro mike alfred mode bro ignore it, here's the playbook, dude.
Mute and unfollow the kid analysts, which I've been saying a lot recently.
Because it's such a banger, bro.
It's such a banger.
All the kid analysts, bro.
All the kid analysts that were trying to short Soul, man.
Oh, gosh, man.
I don't understand it dude like soul is your on-chain indicator dude
and i remember you remember too bro they were calling the death of soul when it retraced to
like what was it 130 140 because of that like stupid um dune chart where it's like, oh, the amount of active users on Solana has hit a multi-year low.
That's when you get super bullish, man.
That's when you get super bullish.
And you had Pump at a bill market cap?
Dude, Pump went below ICOico price like the public sale price that's like the best r&r
you can get and if by some reason there's some fud event and i don't know i don't know some of
us become poor for like two weeks and pump goes to like four cents that is a shove bro that's that is a shove that's just me man ragsy what's
going on how are you it's been a couple of weeks how've you been yo wabi i've been so busy but you
know i love you guys to death i was conveniently free uh this afternoon i'm doing amazing i loved
everything donnie said obviously because every time donnie
speaks he's talking about how rich i'm gonna get and it's just makes me very happy doge is like my
third biggest bag so i'm very excited uh for his opinion there but yeah no i uh i found it really
interesting because i've been doing space as well with Donnie for like over a year, I think before, because Bitcoin and, you know, he's really the one that turned
me on to this idea that we could be going into 2026.
And in January, I wasn't sure.
If you asked me back in January, I would have said like, there's no way.
But the way like the cycle played out with the politics and the rates just starting to get cut, I really do believe we're probably going into 2026.
So I feel like I've been in this bull run forever.
But it's fine because this is my best bull run ever.
So if I could go all the way back in time and redo this bull run again, I would live it again for sure.
I'm having an absolute blast.
But yeah, I'm really bullish. I don't think the bull run's
over. It's like, I don't know how things are going to play out, but I just can't see the
bull run being over when they just cut the rates and even buying like not that much. I think we're
going to get more rate cuts in the future. I think money's going to flow into the market.
I agree with you guys when you were saying about the retail. I think money is going to flow into the market.
I agree with you guys when you were saying about the retail.
I think we're not going to get so much crazy retail in Q4.
I could see that happening maybe in 2026, like a catalyst for 2026.
I don't think meme coins are cooked.
I think that they are the driving force for normies to get into the market.
Like I was on the phone with someone today and they wanted to know about meme coins,
like a total normie.
They didn't want to know about Bitcoin or Ethereum or anything.
They wanted to know about the meme coin stuff. So I think like meme coins are always going to be pretty relevant.
And I think like the top high cap ones like Doge, you know, those are always going to
be the first go to picks because they have the most exchange listings, especially the ones on Robinhood. relevant. And I think like the top high cap ones like Doge, you know, those are always going to be
the first go to picks because they have the most exchange listings, especially the ones on Robin
Hood. But yeah, I, I love being part of this space with you, Wabi, because, you know, I absolutely
love your spaces. I think you guys are so knowledgeable when it comes to, you know, the
broader market. But I agree.
I am super bullish.
I've literally had arguments.
The past three weeks I've been missing.
I've been literally arguing with people that this bull run is not over because they're
still saying that top was back.
When was it?
In July, I believe, or something.
They think we hit the top already.
And I just can't believe that.
And yeah, I'm excited for what's to come.
I think my portfolio is pretty good.
That one I mentioned on your space lobby, like so long ago, the WorldCoin, they got like a big investment that took off.
That's Sam Altman's AI company.
So I was very happy.
My Discord is very happy about that one.
And I think we're going to see a lot of other altcoins start to, I mean, I think we're in altcoin season now,
just under the radar, because if you look at the alts,
they're all up like 20, 30, some 100% or so.
So, so yeah, I'm, I'm really excited.
I'm very bullish on alt still, very bullish on meme coins.
I still think there's like a lot of opportunity there.
And yeah, and that's it. i agree with everything that was said so
feeling good all right guys so basically here's the playbook cancel all your vacation plans
definitely don't go to cancun cancel your trip to miami and just buy pump like just buy any alts that's trending that has deep liquidity and thank
us in a few months exactly as predicted on the show is uh as i like to say but yo donnie is
anything else that you want to say before i wrap up the show man i think it's a pretty uh i think
it was a pretty good stream bro right at the hour the hour, man. I actually knew it on time.
Right at the hour.
I think that was good.
We had a pretty good chat.
And yeah, I guess about the whole 2026 thing,
maybe some of the viewers that don't know me or whatever,
I actually was talking about that in like January.
But now you are starting to see a lot of macro people
actually pivot towards 2026 as well.
And it just makes sense.
And again, right now, if you actually just look at like...
Okay, if you're looking at the macro data
that all the top economic dudes look at,
it's kind of indicating now towards mid-2026.
But that data can change,
and I still think that it could be towards late 26, if not Q1 2027.
But yeah, I just wanted to throw that in there.
Because you are seeing people actually pivot towards a later cycle now.
And everybody's thinking, oh, now everyone's talking about the later cycle.
It was already always there.
Until consensus actually figures that out, it's a different story.
And again, people are still resisting it.
And they're talking about a cycle top this year.
But yeah, only until everybody pivots towards that
and realizing, wow, we're running deep into 2026
or whatever, it's probably going to be a Q1 local top
or something like that as more people accept it.
Yeah, I'm in that camp.
I think we go through another massive, massive multi-month range on majors like we did last year after the next leg up. And then after we expand, I think we have another quick bear market. And then the mother of all pump when others BTC gets into price discovery, which the moment others BTC gets into into price discovery give yourself like 20 days to exit
the market i think it's going to move up aggressively bro but anyways guys donnie ragsy
luke thanks for coming on i'll see you all next week if you guys recently tuned in you like the
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