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Market Talk: Bear market confirmed!? Btc 60k incoming!? are alts dead?
Recorded: March 3, 2025 Duration: 2:08:31Space Recording
Short Summary
The transcript discusses various aspects of the crypto market, including new token launches, market trends, and the potential for a bear market. It highlights the ongoing volatility and manipulation in the market, as well as the anticipation of future rallies. The discussion also touches on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin dominance and altcoin speculation, with a focus on de-risking and consolidating into Bitcoin. Additionally, the transcript mentions the launch of a new blockchain, indicating ongoing innovation in the space.
Full Transcription
happening one of my favorites uh the full blood moon which has indicated historically an acceleration
of fear right but more so than not it ends up marking um quite a substantial low right so
last few blood moons we had one happen during luna after luna went to zero we had a huge pump
afterwards and then after ftx went down which coincided with the blood moon we also had a huge
pump um right after that event right uh we also have the crypto ball happening uh this friday
and uh we all need to start praying that the trump family doesn't release another shit coin because if
they do um there is a huge chance that a lot of the liquidity a lot of the liquidity across all chains
is about to um be flushed down even more so next few support levels that i'm looking at personally
um and i'll go on the record to say this right eath going down to to q3 lows right that would send
eath to about 1800 1700 right around there i think i'll start becoming an eath bull on the weekly
time frame um it's confirmed a double top and usually during a double tap during a double top
correction you go back to that point of origin and that point of origin is just below 2k
um for solana i'd say if you see solana like 108 110 basically retesting the summer 2024 wick i think
that's that's a buy we did have some solana unlocks occurring um on saturday and i think there was one
firm i forgot their name they bought a good chunk uh of that unlock um for like 62 dollars a token
um but uh i mean outside of that um i think markets in general are just trying to digest this
this tariff news to be honest guys and that's gonna take some time the market we're still seeing that
it's uh healing itself from all the madness that occurred uh earlier in the year with trump coin
milano coin and libra a couple of couple of weeks ago and what i find odd is that ronaldino he's like
a legendary football player we call it football if you're hispanic it's called football if you're
american you call it soccer right but ronaldino one of the greatest of all times to ever play the game
i think ronaldino is better than messi um i think he's better than than ronaldo i think ronaldino is
the greatest football player of all time to be honest but nonetheless uh he launched the shit
coin and the market really did not care at all you even had cz uh tweet about it and it's just
replicating some of the same price action that we saw um during the late summertime where you know
rappers and celebrities would launch shit coins and the market just really did not care
at all they would spike up to like 5 mil 20 mil market cap and go straight back to zero
but if that token launched earlier in like december of last year or january of this year
it would have siphoned a lot of the liquidity out of uh the market and now you have people launching
on bnb chain out of all chains absolute ghost chains it really reminds me of like when all these
all coins were launching on tron and they would have like two or three day pump and dumps
so uh we are seeing the market slowly try to heal itself and a lot of the hot air a lot of the
froth a lot of the fugazi is being filtered out um even with some on-chain tokens right they just
refuse to break their range lows uh but i do think whatever stab we got right below um below levels that
we hit on majors earlier last week if they get hit and break down i think those are levels um that you
start to look at to bid honestly especially if we have certain events happening um that have been
proven to to be some alpha as crazy as it sounds right so um we're gonna go ahead and get the show
started i'm here joined by donnie here joined by matt here joined by prometheus as well um apologies
for the spaces guys uh starting at this time i did start it um at 4 30 but at that time spaces uh
were down um i wasn't able to start it um and then i tried starting it again but it kept on saying
can't fetch the space and i was getting dm saying that spaces are down and all that stuff and so they've
really only been working um over the last like 10 minutes or so so um i'm not too sure if like our
usual audience is uh going to be tuning in right we usually have like a couple hundred people tuning
into the spaces uh on a daily basis um but hopefully this spaces situation um is cleared out so if you're
here consider yourself lucky um some people still aren't able to tune into any spaces um or once they
join um and they leave and they try to come back they're not able to so hopefully like uh spaces
actually starts to improve to a good degree um because spaces is a way that people get to learn
right i met matt on spaces um i mean i met all the guys here at bb on spaces tucker max jack is i all met
them um via spaces so i think this is a great networking platform if anything and if you use this app
um you know to to to a degree where you want to learn and connect with people where you can chat
markets and all that stuff you never know where you might end up right this is probably the greatest
app uh for opportunities in your respective fields whether you're in crypto fitness or anything like
that this app can truly truly truly give you a multitude um of opportunities but uh before i officially
get started guys i do want to ask you one small tiny tiny tiny favor only takes a few moments guys
will only take uh just the slightest amount of effort guys if you guys can go ahead and show some love to
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comments on what you guys want us to check out any questions that you might have uh as well and also
feel free to smash up the retweet button the repost button is that little button does a number of
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call it it does bring more awareness to the show and uh sometimes you'll see someone in the audience that
you know you might uh be uh seeing on your timeline on ct or sometimes one of these macro figureheads
right we've had a multitude of uh cool speakers that have have really just been uh active listeners and
sometimes we bring them up and a great conversation um has been made right we've had michael green up
michael cantrell a few others as well a few guys uh working in the crypto space also so when you guys uh
click that repost button smash up the like button uh you know you might have one of your favorite
content creators on this app maybe pop up on the stage right so space is a recorder as always guys
thank you all so much for tuning in hope you guys had a fantastic weekend i understand that the
volatility right now uh is not for the faint of heart right we do have eth actually retesting uh
it's yearly lows right now um as we speak it's practically at range lows um it's essentially a
zigzag whether you're on chain whether you're on centralized exchanges so we're going to try to
bring uh clarity amongst the chaos here on today's show but uh just remember that crypto is a long-term
game and uh this is the heart of all innovation you are at the center of it all right next 5 10 15 20
years this is the market um where you can take advantage of the american dream which is freedom
via capital gains right so look i got donnie matt and prometheus on the spaces we're going to do what
we do best here and uh talk about markets with you all so i see matt has uh something up on the nest
right and he's been pounding the table for this for a while we have three things to watch out for guys
uh when it comes to the the broader macro landscape this is a stage of the cycle where macro is actually
very important right we have gdp projection trump tariffs and also u.s job data right so matt hope
you're doing okay i see grant in the audience i'll go ahead and bring him up i also see david i'll bring
him up also so matt what's going on brother how are you doing man uh thanks for jumping up on the show
brother what have you got for us today hey wabi hey y'all uh yeah thanks for having me up um we've
been saying that this week would be pivotal for quite a while and it's sure shaping up like that um
we we basically are watching just three things this week we want to see what gdp says trump tariffs
and u.s jobs data we already got uh a sneak peek at gdp it's negative 2.8 projected that's terrible
great um next we'll hear more details on trump tariffs yes everyone's talking about the big
headlines of wow negative 25 percent china and canada mexico to follow but the devil's in the
details and we'll see exactly like okay are uh is nvidia and chip makers are they exempt is u.s autos
and car manufacturers are they exempt like what's all the details on that so it's a big scary headline
but by tuesday through uh tuesday through friday we'll know the details on that so that one's still
pending what's not pending what's going to be absolutely definitive is you'll get uh adp private
payrolls uh jobs report initial jobless claims and then the big friday u.s uh unemployment and jobs data
um long story short if all three of these go against us and i think you can go ahead and say
gdp that one's cooked that's going against us and we need a small miracle for trump tariffs to
pull a u-turn to get a delay um if all three of these go against us it's a bear market like there's no
there's no avoiding it um we had a great run uh s&p 500 was absolutely ripped nasdaq absolutely ripped
bitcoin was you know at one point five hundred percent uh off the bottom it's been a it's been
a fantastic three years two and a half three years so um i don't you know uh i know what i'm doing
myself i'll never sell my bitcoin but i've been very open in here and publicly that i've i've been
selling all my riskier stuff into every rip over this winter um sure playing little short-term
bounces and okay here's an earnings here and a and a and a nice uh pop with miners there but
i've been de-risking and de-leveraging and getting out of everything that's riskier than bitcoin because
look uh i don't care what altcoin you hold i don't care what asset you hold if it can up if it
can outperform bitcoin to the upside it's going to outperform bitcoin to the downside so um that's
just me this is what i do i like to de-risk everything possible and just consolidate into
bitcoin and buy bitcoin because you know what i know that it will survive no matter how long a bear
market is maybe it's a little covid 2020 crash maybe it's something longer like a like a one year
but i know that bitcoin will rise from the ashes so um i'm happy with sticking to sticking to what i
know so but that's that's that's the long and the short of it like this is this pivotal week is here
it's a rough start it doesn't mean that it's cooked um i'm i'm i'm glad bitcoin's at 85k 86k not 76k
um but i think we talked about last week that the the line in the sand is the 50-week moving average
for bitcoin if you lose the 50-week moving average for bitcoin which is right about now call it 76
77k if you lose that bitcoin has never ever recovered uh without going through a bear market
um you you could even say that okay the covid crash was an outlier but still that was a nasty
negative 50 percent and it took congress and the president passing trillions of dollars of emergency
spending for you to pull out of the covid crash so long story short if we if bitcoin loses its 50-week
moving average you know just strap in it's it's a bear market and um you know whatever your dca strategy
or your bottom buying strategy is um it's time to dust it off and revisit it um but i know what i'm
doing matt what are your thoughts on uh yesterday's uh post from trump talking about a crypto strategic
reserve isn't that was pure i i i posted some things that xrp army didn't like but that was a pure
exit liquidity post that was a gift to all the crypto donors that had been supporting this campaign
and giving contributions and so i mean just just with hindsight as our benefit look at it in the cold
light of day you've got this post over the weekend where u.s markets are closed cme is closed etfs are
closed and there's there's no details it's just a list of tickers that will go into a quote-unquote
crypto reserve strategic fund whatever you want to call it that that was such a gift for anyone who
had been holding super heavy bags from how knows from who knows how long that was just a gift from the
heavens to get out on crazy high leverage and people made awfully killing i know everyone's been
sharing they're like wow who put in these like 50x leveraged bets on bitcoin and eth yeah there was
definitely some insiders who knew uh what was coming and they made their bets and they got their bets in
but like i'm just thinking of the massive massive whales of cardano and xrp and you name it who have
been sitting on i don't know trying to get out of break even or even with it or even with a nice gain
uh and and peace out and they sure did like so look at these candles someone someone was selling
metric tons of xrp and ada and all the rest so this to me i look at this like that was that was a weekend
gift so that trad fi and and this is why you know because over the weekend with etfs closed and the
cme futures uh uh closed and options closed and the broader markets closed trad fi couldn't short it
trad fi couldn't uh uh manipulate it track it was all just uh uh foreign exchanges international uh money
market uh uh market makers and uh uh crypto spot trading so that was that that's why i'm saying it
was such a gift um to all the crypto donors that have been supporting this administration like here
you go here's your way to get out
yeah i i i had a feeling actually and i was wrong on that where trad fi would have done the opposite
right and catch up to the to the um announcement that trump had made right but uh we just completely
retraced the pump like i woke up and it's basically uh the bart simpson pattern man um grant what are your
thoughts uh on um trump's uh announcements of a crypto strategic reserve and the tariffs and all
that stuff man great to have you uh back on it's been cool having you on here and there bro yeah bro
thank you i i'm really just here to learn and uh you know i was a bit suspect of um that post this
weekend it didn't it didn't make any sense to me i don't you know i thought it was either a distraction
from the zielinski blow up over the week or thursday and friday um but i didn't expect today
for them to come out and say okay we got to you know it's on the reserve or something like
manipulation is real man
yes it's it's like a like a zigzag like a zigzag ping pong pattern honestly um but more than anything
it's volatility right it feels like any day now we're probably going to see the vix spike up like
crazy as we did uh in august that wouldn't surprise me at all and um there's also a crypto ball event
this friday hosted by david sacks and i just can't shake off the feeling that like
some riffraff is about a is about a go down during that event and that tweet that uh that post
that uh eric trump had made talking about how traditional markets need to catch up to crypto
because weekends are going to be where headlines are going to happen and it's like yeah it works
both ways it works to the upside and the downside and it seems like any time um eric trump tweets
about crypto the market basically just does not like that at all it's it's it just screams um
exit liquidity to be honest bingo um i mean it was tickers wobby yeah like okay trying to put
politics aside let's try to put what everyone thinks of trump aside the tickers that were announced
is stuff he's never uttered in his life has it anyone got a clip of him ever mentioning ada or soul
or xrp i mean yeah okay everyone can pay him to get a picture next to him and and those uh
pictures of um the ripple guys uh posing in front of posing next to trump um have been making the
circulation but like he's never said the word xrp or cardano or ada or assault like this was such a
obvious exit liquidity move like we'll put it out over the weekend everyone can get their bids in
uh the trad fi markets cme etc can't mess with you trad fi can't uh big hedge funds and and the
etc can't come over on top of you and and uh and and short this this shit you got a big window to get
out it's a i mean it is what it is it was it was a gift and it doesn't have to be literally trump
tweeting it out but it was clearly someone with his account and that's all it takes that's all it takes
yeah
yeah maybe it's maybe it's barren people speculated that that it's barren um well i trump has always
been a headline guy right and um kind of the the the stuff that i'm seeing is he wants to
break the market down to then pump it to to incredible highs and re and and rekindle uh the
rowing 20s right rowing 20s part two um and it's led by crypto but donnie
brother how was your weekend man um quite the volatility here i think we had a space over the
weekend i think one of them was like a late night space or something like that correct me if i'm wrong
i think it was like on saturday i think it was on a saturday i'm not sure and um man this market is
really volatile on both directions like you would think that we would establish a range but um it it
truly screams summer of 2024 whenever we would have these multi-week periods where volatility
would be intense if you remember um when the polls would go out on a weekly basis whenever trump would
be leading the polls the market would pump whenever kamala uh would take over the polls the market would
dump and this time it's kind of the same thing where the market goes limit down whenever tariffs
are discussed but it goes limit up whenever peace treaties are being spoken about or whenever some
um you know bullish crypto headlines at times uh are spoken about like we saw yesterday brother
what are your thoughts man on the conversation everything i discussed how was your weekend bro thanks
for coming on again hey bro had a good weekend yeah just lots of rest chilling and just um yeah there's
just so many charts to cover so you know when times are crucial like this you just have to watch like
absolutely everything and just see potentially what you can get unfolding but also it's good to just
not rush into conclusions right away of like if this and this happens then it's all over or if this
happens then uh we're 100 gonna pump and just kind of take it like slowly day by day
um i kind of been saying that i have a feeling innately with all of the data and stuff um that we do get
some sort of rally going into may and june and you know we have to hold certain levels and certain
things need to be met now with the pump yesterday with the uh news based pump on a weekend it was great
it was exciting and all of that um we had one of the biggest cme gaps of all time on the whole history of
the bitcoin chart so i actually missed that last night i didn't even check it and i saw a post this
morning of how big the gap was it was insane so not surprised that we came to fill that entire gap
but i like it when you have bullish catalysts ahead things that can actually like affect you know the
economy and global liquidity and things like this and the chart is trading at the lows right you don't
want to be pumping into these events for them to create like a true exit liquidity um sort of set
up for the from the market right so we've got this um crypto summit on the 7th of march now you can
imagine if there was a sustained bid all throughout this week with like you know hype events um or hype
announcements crypto specific pumping us into that date and then setting up like a massive short from
from that date right so imagine if we pump this whole week we broke the key level of 100k where
there's like 7 billion of liquidity to take out and then um everyone's super hyped to you know hear what
they announce and stuff and that's where they set up like a massive filling of shorts so it's good that
we're not pumping into that event and yeah just literally waiting to get this week out of the way
like matt discussed there's a bunch of important economic stuff um that's going to be announced
this week so i would just much rather be at the bottom of the chart when these catalysts are in
front of us that can pump us from the lows instead of pumping into them so even if um the 7th of this
month the 7th of march was that crypto summit even if that's like nothing too crazy we have the fomc
on the 19th of march so if price is still below 100k which is the key level for the upside then
i'm thinking that potentially we could get a rally from some positive uh fomc sort of pivot we'll see
like the chart will be more telling as you get closer if you're building some sort of accumulation
going into that event then i would think it's going to be positive and we pump if it was negative i would
think we're going to pump into it and then people are thinking like wow something good to come from
fomc because prices are moving up and then it actually sets up a short and they announce something
bearish so one of the like one of the best cases that i've got for you know over the next few weeks
is that perhaps the crypto summit pumps us above 100k there's a de-risking going into the fomc we pull
back a little bit and then from the fomc announcements we actually start pumping
um going into may so what they would need to say is just give some sort of like
roadmap at least until the next meetings in the summer months of may june and july to where they're
potentially hinting at ending qt and i could imagine the market crypto market specifically rallying
into those months and then you know because qt is a bullish um sort of quote-unquote announcement
it would also set up a great position for them to sell off and fill shorts because people are
thinking wow the end of qt things like ether are going to start ripping altcoins are going to go nuts
iwm is going to go into price discovery things like this to where actually we correct there locally
or you know potentially it could even be a larger top than just a local top depending on how the
announcement unfolds like if they pivot because of like fears then you know that's actually bearish
and we could have like a very prolonged sort of sell-off that you know lasts many months before we
actually recover from them ending qt and potentially pivoting to qe right so yeah just watching how price
gets to these milestones and then basing um that off of what potentially could be announced so i'm hoping
we stay below 100k before these key dates so the crypto summit the fomc and then we start rallying
into may and june and then i'm looking to exit like going into those months and uh yeah but you know
the us 10 years going down it looks like it's just going to continue going down we have a little bit
of support on the chart at around 4.1 percent so potentially there could be a bounce there and
you know that bounce tends to be like either before or after fomc so i'm not sure what will
happen there we'll just see dxy rejected like a clean area that it needed to reject from uh today
i hope it loses the low of 106 and the drop gets expedited with some sort of like good news to come
from the tariffs hopefully like some sort of good deal done with china or something we'll see but
overall i'm not actually like overly bearish on retracing that whole candle i'm actually more like
happy with that outcome like i said i wouldn't want to pump and be hyped up going into something
that can be a bullish catalyst because we saw what happened last time with trump's inauguration
they started hyping that date with like he's going to do this and this executive order and these crypto
specific things and you pumped all the way to new highs people are longing the top they're filling
shorts and you're locally corrected so it's much better to be at the bottom of the chart before
these things i can get you out of here so yeah just waiting for that and uh yeah things look uh
things look good i'm going to be buying over this next week i truly think this week might be the last
set of deep buys before things can reverse but we'll see we'll see what we get yeah at the very least
like um a blast off to range highs um if we do get like that vic spike in the next like two weeks i do
think that's that's something to buy um it's crazy man like rsi got to the lowest point that we've seen
in a very very very long time and i mean that's always indicative of at least like a local bounce
and those bounces can truly just destroy shorts even if even if you shorted from like 85k right most
people actually got cleaned out they got their they lost their shirts they got carded out right
especially on some of these alts man um and speaking of alts right like coinbase stock has
always been a barometer of how like all coins are doing right and i mean at some point right like
this thing is probably going to go into price discovery in the next like year or so but it
seems like the equity markets want to continue to correct further while crypto and like the broader
markets just kind of want to find a base to level out at right but uh donnie what are some like lower
levels that you'd be looking for if we do like take a stab lower than 77k are you looking at like 65 69 70
because these corrections are a bit more different than uh previous markets right like i got it in
december of 2017 and the corrections would be absolutely brutal like btc would correct like 35
percent eth would correct 40 percent other also would create would go down 60 and then be back at new
highs um within a couple of days and even though like even though the flows were a lot different right
you had like svb and silver getting all that stuff to to to create those like flows for for alts right
and we don't have that right now the corrections at least for btc have been way way way different
given the tradify flow right so you're not really going to see those nasty 75 80 corrections on
btc anymore unless you have like some custodian that goes under or whatever but i don't really like to
doom post i don't really wish oh well on other people's btc right like even when people were
talking about ftx going under it was always a grim conversation right because a lot of people actually
got hurt from that and uh now you have people that like are exclusive btc people um which sometimes
are really mean by the way and uh they're now like offsetting their uh spot btc from a cold wallet and
just selling all of that to buy some etfs right and i think like that mindset right and if that
becomes a trend could potentially lead to like a black swan but that's a conversation for for a
different time right but uh sorry for the word salad there man i'm kind of rambling at this point
no it's all good um wait i saw david like spamming his hand up so maybe he wants to speak because i might
take a little bit of time to explain yeah yeah appreciate it donnie thanks man yeah man i i lift
i raised my hand a little while ago i just say um i just listening to you guys sounds like there's a
lot of differences and you know i think it's it's a super emotional time i guess you know i i try
honestly not even to look at it too much you know and i saw it yesterday and i know it was like it was
like went from like 80 low 80s right i think it even broke into the 70s and then it jumped all the
way up to like 94 after the announcement and uh and then i didn't look at it again i saw it today was
back to 87 so i think it's just it's the volatility is um you know my understanding i you know i've been
in in the bitcoin it's about a year and a half so um i'm starting to learn that that it's a good thing
but again it's it's kind of an emotional thing right because you're just if you if you pay too
much attention to it you just start thinking uh and and you just start getting dealing with the the
the fear and should i sell should i not and all kinds of craziness so my my my goal is just to kind
of know long term i'm in for the long run um i believe in it you know i'm i'm excited about what
happened yesterday you know and i think i mean i mean imagine if that didn't happen yesterday where
we would be i i mean because if you think about what happened yesterday it jumped would it jump up
10 12 but now it's it's back down i mean imagine if it didn't jump to 10 up yesterday i don't know
where we would be right now but anyway i'm i mean i'm excited like i said i think long term
i'm a long-term holder you know it's not it's not a it's not a uh you know bitcoin to me is is not
my uh my gambling money or my play money it's an investment and uh and then i also have some you know
some soul i think in the soul is more of the i wouldn't say to play money but i think you know with
what happened yesterday um i felt better about soul but i did hear something earlier today that caught
my attention you guys might want to um maybe uh elaborate on this a little bit but the when the
fact that the uh trump uh named all four you know he named bitcoin he named soul he named eath he named
uh what is it cardano he he said uh i heard it kind of hurts bitcoin in a way because it takes away from
the bitcoin dominance um that was something i hadn't heard before and i thought that was interesting
um so i just curious what are you guys thoughts on that yeah so i don't think it takes away from
bitcoin at all just because bitcoin is like a very different um asset compared to all of the other
assets mentioned right it's not owned by anybody its main use case is a store of value and things like
that so you know if people are complaining about the volatility of bitcoin you know they're not going
to be inclined to hold things like xrp in a bear market if you're a sovereign wealth fund and things
like that right so btc will still have its use case no matter what it just draws more liquidity into the
space as a whole that he mentioned um other coins like that and in terms of bitcoin dominance that's
like a prevalent thing in every cycle you know when the when the market gets to a point where the
like economic uh and macro landscape is essentially risk on bitcoin loses dominance because speculation goes
high right people are taking you know money out of btc and throwing it into eth and other altcoins while that
clear runway in the market of risk on is active so it it'll just play out as usual right it's not going to
harm btc in any way it's just that's how typically a cycle ends is speculation runs super high people are investing
in the rest of the space and then the cycle comes to an end and that liquidity finds its way back into
bitcoin throughout a bear market and the cycle repeats so it's nothing to be like worried about
it's more it's actually more like positive for the whole space
so do you think we're coming to the end of the cycle now or is that when you say cycle is it just a
cycle or is it the end of the bull market what are you guys thoughts on that i mean i see your title
obviously bear market confirmed i mean is that just uh a title to catch some attention or is that
is what you guys really think it's it's clickbait like if if you're if you're trying to get an
audience like you need you need headlines right you need headlines so i've got it um yeah yeah this i
don't think um i don't think the cycle ends here a cycle would just be like
you know the whole space coming to a top and then we go into a prolonged bear market
sort of thing so people are calling for that at the moment um there's a lot of like you know
analysts going back and forth on that thesis but i don't i don't believe that that's the case and um
yeah i believe we've got much longer in this cycle just because like
like there's a lot of implementation of all of the things that we've been hearing that are bullish
catalysts for the space like you know regulations all those kind of things right so these take time
to play out probably in the second half of the year but then you've also got like the global liquidity
cycle which still hasn't taken full effect yet right we know that because the dollar has been super
strong trump's been using it to make negotiations with all these countries and you know once the dollar
weekends and things like that these countries that are in like economic crisis can begin to stimulate
pushing global liquidity to new highs which you know we've seen that's the main driver of every
bull market of any asset class so that hasn't come into play yet can things get worse before that starts
yes but eventually that would lead to upside so i don't see how that would be you know a bear market
before that maybe it's like a uh you know three month sort of period of downside or something like
that before you get that uh end of cycle sort of liquidity rise but yeah up until then i don't think
we've entered the bear market so yeah it just depends when for me is like are we gonna pump going into may
or are we gonna have to wait till the second half of the year and experience some more downside and pain
before you know things get better glow in the global economic scheme so yeah we'll see i'm still like
the may scenario hasn't been ruled out for me and i'll talk on what you just touched on david about like
where would we have been if uh that announcement was never made well we're actually back to where
prices were before the announcement was even started so you could essentially just take it as if that
news-based catalyst just fully retraced to back to where it was so it's kind of like insignificant
you know if you ask me you tapped 78k you were hanging around 85k for you know 48 hours or so you
got the announcement you shot up and now you're back to like 86k so essentially nothing has happened
and like i said you wouldn't want to keep going into events that are meant to be you know bullish
catalysts because typically it's the inverse if you're pumping into a bullish catalyst
retail is going to start buying at that level and they're going to fill up shorts to send it lower
right so yeah the key levels that i'm watching are this exact level that we're at right now 84 800 to
86k if we hold that and build some sort of uh accumulation going into that crypto summit potentially
we could set up to go above 100k the level that i would want to maintain so we don't
visit lower lows like the lower levels at 77 and 75k is 80 400 there's the last bit of demand
around that level hopefully we hold that even if prices go like a little bit lower across the board
uh going into this crypto summit and then potentially we get some relief
enough to you know hold that low of 78 uh 0.2k going into the fomc because that's actually the
real main pivot point in the market that fomc meeting which is on the 19th of march so yeah just
watching that if we do lose 80k then yeah we'll probably visit 75 74 something around there before
fomc but like i said you would want prices to be you know at the lower side of the chart going into
these events that can get you out of this place instead of pumping going into them to set up a short
so yeah what did i want to discuss oh i shared um i shared a chart in the nest for you guys to have a
look so before we close the week last week that candle was all the way down to like 78k
um prior to the candle that's you know this week's uh candle now you can see that it's a wick right
right that closed all the way above the yearly open um right before the weekly close so that kept
the chart structure you know bullish quote unquote we still have the entirety of this week and we have
that uh crypto summit on the seventh of this week which is a friday so we still have the weekend which
the weekly closes on a sunday to potentially reverse the scandal all the way back up above that 89k
key level to maintain like you know bullish momentum on the chart because if you close below
that then the chart starts to look ugly and to me it's indicates that you're potentially gonna you
know stay at these lows for longer before you form some sort of base to you know get prices shooting up
higher again so depending on what's announced at that crypto summit maybe there's favorable uh tax
policies who knows right something like that can actually like bring rotations even from the smp into
crypto specifically because we've seen it every other cycle as well i have some scenarios of 2016
and 2020 to where the stock market you know dropped 10 15 and traded sideways for a few months
while crypto actually led off of the lows and then the stock market broke into highs after that
so because we have these crypto specific catalysts that's actually a possible outcome um you know
going into may right so yeah just taking it week by week seeing where the candles close and
seeing what comes of these catalysts it's nothing really more you can do so that we can also look at
q3 and early q4 of 2023 um when the indices started their little multi-month downtrend
uh crypto had actually bottomed uh crypto had actually bottomed in mid-august before all that
happened right we corrected from 30k to 24k while spx and the nasdaq had a drawdown of about 10 to 11
spx corrected about 10 nasdaq about 11 ish percent while most of the blood in the crypto markets for
majors had already been done and the very best that we got was a little double bottom retest
uh right around early october and which year was this 2023 if you look at uh mid-august um early
to mid-august of 2023 all the way to late october you'll see that the indices were correcting
while the crypto market most of the blood was already put in in august and all we had was like
a little double bottom yeah yeah i see it from those lows yeah yeah and this yeah and then while
like go ahead oh sorry now you go ahead bro no i was just gonna say like while majors made new year
to date highs um the indices were still correcting uh and then that's when robin hood started going crazy
and the iwm started going crazy i think like a pretty good analysis to to make here it's like people think
the cycle is topped is if you think iwm is topped uh because truly iwm has been a pretty good indicator
of where uh the broader crypto markets are going right all coins and stuff like that
and stocks like coin stock um and even rabbit hood stock right but more so um coinbase stock more than
anything and you'll see that once coin and iwm hit those local highs in december that's when uh
whiff and pepe got listed on robin hood which you know i still stand firm by my statement that it's
going to be really hard um to top that for some time um unless you know fed actually does
nqt and starts to stimulate in some way shape or form
yeah but uh yeah so but that exact period in time that you just mentioned um was a 90-day correction
on the stock market and it was about a 10 point almost 11 drop and for btc it was the same amount of
time like spent uh until it broke the high but btc actually led from the low why because the etf was
actually announced so the rumor of the etf of like the actual um date of where they're gonna implement
it was like announced or there was a rumor about it or something which actually got us from 25k all
the way to 49k so what i'm trying to say with the prior stuff is if you do have a crypto specific
catalyst the spx can trade sideways or down and you know crypto can go lower like while the spx is
correcting but it could lead off of the low much sooner than uh the stock market and break out to
new highs you know going into some of these key dates that we're looking ahead of us so we do have
these catalysts uh in front of us so you can't rule it out you know for crypto specifically like if
i share the chart right now i'll just post it and then share it in the nest just give me two seconds
you can see like and this is just one example like there's been so many examples where this
has happened uh on the chart at key like moments for crypto so i just shared it up in the nest now
guys if you are enjoying this exclusive update if you guys are enjoying this emergency spaces
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the spaces guys thank you so much for pulling through we actually have a decently sized audience
this always tends to happen when volatility uh continues to spike up man it's because of your
update no no no dude i have had some crazier clickbait titles um before and like sometimes i think there
was one space where we only got like 260 250 ish people that's like on the lower end and yeah uh i mean
dude just take a look at some of the price action across the board we literally retraced the entire
pump all of it yeah all of it here's good here's the thing oh man like sometimes spaces is great
because like we can chat and all this kind of stuff but it sucks because i can't share like all of
the charts all of the points that i'm looking at to like make it very clear like what i'm seeing right
but the chart i just shared in the nest is what we just discussed earlier and you can see they both
corrected at similar times btc and the stock market but you know btc carves out a low a
lot easier than the stock market did and actually breaks to a new local high way sooner than the
stock market did and then like you know there was follow through on the stock market like a month or
two after that so we're kind of having the same setup here right now um literally locally on the charts
we had on february the 21st the spx printed like let's see this candle it's like a two percent bearish
candle which sent bitcoin from that 99 800 level all the way down to where it is now because there
was multiple bearish candles printed on the spx right so they both locally like topped right there
and that was the key level to break for the upside for both of the charts for btc it was 100k
and it would start making its way to clean up the liquidity at 103 107k but we rejected the stock market
puked whatever but now even from the lows like btc is bouncing well it bounced way harder than the spx
did like the spx closed the week um last week with a green candle of two percent but it's fully retraced
that candle and deeper whereas btc has retraced 50 of that pump but not the entire candle and when i
when i've checked every other time that you know btc and the stock market were correcting at the same time
and btc actually broke to new highs first every bounce that the stock market had on its downtrend
btc would outperform on the upside and also outperform on the downside so it's slowly building an uptrend
to get out of this low while the stock market is just continuously visiting those same lows
or going lower so basically it's being outperformed by bitcoin because of these crypto specific catalysts
and then when the stock market actually does end up breaking the high let's say like two to three months
later btc is already at the highs and it just continues to go even higher so i'm thinking
that's what we could potentially get going into may june and july in anticipation of qt ending
right there's going to be a lot of fervor in the markets specifically in crypto as well if that is like
announced at this um at this next uh fed meeting on the 19th of march or like some sort of clear
roadmap or you know like a dovish tone um donny do you think that um for that announcement to be made
the equity markets would have to be down more than 10 percent instead of only being like you know just a
couple of percentages below its yearly yearly highs so it's actually down 5.5 percent at the moment
so if it was to go down to like from these scenarios that i've checked where like btc has let off the
lows when the stock market is correcting the correction has been around 10 to 15 so to have a 10 drop in
the smp would have to go to 5.5k so that could potentially be on the cards but also like global
m2 is rising again so we don't have to actually visit that low we don't have to put in new lows
more so we could just deviate the lows that we've got which is at 5.7k on the stock market
and build some sort of accumulation model like at these levels you could deviate all the way to like
5.7 come back into the range and bounce btc bounces even harder and then you revisit like a higher low
or something that could take all the way until may for the stock market and then you potentially start
you know looking to break to all-time highs so it doesn't have to go down 10 percent but you know
if it did then yeah the fed would definitely be forced to you know end qt and potentially hint at
like some interest rate cuts as well so we'll just see like if it gets worse they have to react to make
it better which will end up better in the long run or end up positive in the markets after some time
or they kind of cruise into going like ending qt and doing more rate cuts who knows like it's
literally unknown we'll just have to see but the chart will be telling like if btc is outperforming
from the lows uh while the stock market is ranging or going lower here then i have a very strong
inclination that we're going to pump going into me and i'll pass the mic on over now uh to the man
himself the legend naka modalisk anytime uh the markets were rage pumping naka you were nowhere to
be found man but now amidst all the chaos brother what's going on thanks for coming back it's been uh
quite a long time you know you've been uh the subject of many sound clips here up on these spaces
whenever uh things get very volatile what's going on brother what are you seeing out there i see you
put in uh some stuff on the nest feel free to you know give us some of uh your thoughts man it's been
uh a long time dude we appreciate it we've been on and off in spaces for three years now bro yeah
it's three years ago it's true can you can you can you hear me okay yeah yeah you're good man okay years
ago yeah i know it's crazy with it's crazy and it was remember yeah yeah yeah and and and chimp
chimp zoo oh my god yeah well you know the funny thing is i actually think we are probably now
back in that same part of the cycle as when as when we first started having spaces i actually think
if you do it based on timing right we are in september 2021 but i think this cycle's actually
been a little bit quicker than the past one so we're actually something around like december 2021
that's like roughly where we are um and yeah i think basically it's a bear market um the pump that
we just saw was you know a fraudulent bear market scam pump um and i think basically what's gonna happen
now is people are gonna keep buying the dip and it's gonna keep dipping and you know it's just
you know how that goes right you were there right like i was there we know how that story goes right
what will happen is eventually we will make a low that is so low that it will actually crush people
it'll crush the bullish sentiment um and that will be a local bottom uh and we'll we'll have probably
another high which could be an equal high could be a lower high i'm not sure and then we'll just start
dumping again um so yeah i'm bearish i'm pretty convinced that this is the bear market uh if you
look at newpool which i've posted uh up in the up in the nest it's pretty clear looking at the newpool
chart and you like a five-year-old baby could tell you it's probably the top right like you know you see
one two three four tops very clear all roughly the same space all in roughly the same place except
there's a slight decrease from year to year naka can you explain to the audience what that chart is
uh it's net unrealized profit and loss so basically this is um a chart that is showing you whether you
know talk to what extent people are in profit on their bitcoin buys so when you're in um when you're in
the belief phase which is above 50 percent um it means that people you know on average between 50 and
75 percent in profit um when you're above 75 you're in euphoria so almost all these buys are in profit
uh and we're currently in optimism slash anxiety which is below 50 percent the next phase we're going
to chop around for a while but we will eventually get into the hope slash fear phase and then we will
go into the capitulation phase where you know on average people's people's bitcoin buyers are at a
loss and they're on average you know people are crying people are hurting they're capitulating and
that's when you want to be bullish and basically my i've made two big mistakes in my cryptocurrency
career mistake number one was that i was bullish on ethereum in the 2022 bear market and bearish on solana
and that was exactly the wrong way around you wanted to be bearish on ethereum and bullish on
and mistake number two is that i was very active in the 2022 bear market right which is a huge mistake
you don't want to be active in the bear market because it's one of those phases of the market
where a lot of people have been suckered in by the bull market the high prices you know we had the
president's wife launching a meme coin right we've had a lot of noise about cryptocurrency we've had a lot of
media we've had adverts we've had you know super bowl all of this it's been a little bit more ai but
crypto has been there um people are sucking in people are paying attention to it and this is the
worst time to be paying attention to it because in a bear market nobody makes money right if you're
trying to go short you're going to lose money because you know you're going to hold the short for
too long you're going to short the dips or something is going to fuck you over with shorts right and if
you go long you're going to lose money because the market's generally going down and so even if you
do try to time the buys quite well you're probably going to get wrecked unless you're trading on an
extremely short time scale you're not holding a position for more than a couple of days so basically
it's like it's like the phase of the market where nothing good happens you don't want to be here
right and that is partly why i've been away i've been building and i'm running i'm in the early stages
running a company that's going to be launching my own uh blockchain um because i think that's
that's where the real money is right you know training is cool but if you want to trade you
got to a have a lot of capital and b ideally you got to do it in the bull market and i don't think
we're in the bull market anymore i think the bear market is started i think that you know the the
momentum the high momentum point was in march that was the maximum bullish momentum we did get a higher
high on price uh you know like the sort of you know november december um 2024 that was a sort of
higher high on price and there was an even higher high in like january but it was marginal like the
january high was was very marginal it was essentially it was essentially a double top right like there was
a the top that the real sort of the real high there was december 20th of december 2024 there was a
marginally higher high on i believe the 20th of january which was the day that milani and launched
her meme coin that was probably the market top it's like melania trump launched a meme coin and
you will try to buy it i had i actually had people um calling me up trying to um like ask me how to buy
meme coins okay on that day people who hadn't talked to me for like months called me up and said how do i
buy the trampoline coin i was like yeah okay it's probably fun anyway so it's probably the top it's
it's done like i'm i'm not you know i'm not interested in in trying to catch the last five
percent of the move if there is another move up maybe they'll make me maybe i'm wrong maybe there
will be a really strong bullish move up from here i think you have got to be ready for that because every
every market cycle is a little bit different maybe we spend more time at the top there's
a longer distribution phase this time it's possible but it just looks like it's cooked and
if you look at trad markets they look like they're kind of cooked as well right uh if you look at like
i was looking at the monthly chart of the s p you know like um monthly rsi on that it looks cooked
like it all looks cooked it's not like it's not clear exactly how this is going you know
exactly what's going to happen that's going to cook this like i don't know exactly how it's
going to play out but if you just look at the chart it's like yes right this is done um
so i mean it could it could be the thing with like trump and especially elon with doge you know doing
like um uh firing a bunch of government employees and then it's like what happens if you fire a bunch
of people you know what's that going to do to gdp what's that going to do spending it's going to
reduce it and so there'll be you know an economic downturn maybe it's not a very severe one but
there'll be a little bit of a downturn and in the current cryptocurrency market if there is a little
bit of a downturn in traditional markets like a little dipperino should we say uh that can be like
a big new carino for your meme coins right and your ethereum especially looks like absolute garbage
here double top formation on ethereum at uh around about uh four thousand we're currently
we're currently right now breaking down from that double top structure the price at 2100
if that breaks the target is around about 1200 so ethereum could go to 1200
the question for me is whether it holds that or not if it does hold that that's probably the bottom
and then you can buy ethereum and ride it up to like you know eight thousand if it doesn't hold that
there's another double top on a larger time scale which targets like you know 200 or something um
i don't knock out let me let me add this man yeah i was going through this uh in our afternoon
discord call and my channel and all that stuff but we're now kind of in a similar environment i
would agree like i mean you know me i play in alts right and if you yeah by the way i've got
i've got a call i've got to go super quick so just i've got like 30 seconds left okay i'm just gonna
say man like kind of like in march of 22 man if you remember there are only a few alts to play for
upside and we're kind of experiencing that right now if you haven't been trading bear chain
stories or kaito it's basically been just trying to catch knives uh-huh or these like lower time
frame balances and basically basically q122 with waves if you remember yeah oh waves holy
this is the thing remember that one yeah waves was a disgusting scam like this is the phase of the
market where you just shouldn't be in crypto you shouldn't be here just don't be here don't be here
in the bear market don't be here when we get to the capitulation phase then you want to turn up okay
capitulation on newpool right when newpool goes you know below negative 35 will be very obvious right
even even if even if you actually miss the top it's still okay right now to just not be here imagine
if you sold bitcoin in early 2021 well with with the 21 cycle it's a bit different because there's a
lot of money to be made in all right there was huge 2021 was an amazing set of altcoin opportunities and
i made quite a few decent trades i made a lot of money on d5 kingdoms i salt i dumped on them at
that on twenty dollars i dumped on them on ohm i made so much money this cycle has been a lot harder
you know they really have like it's been it's been super hard anyway but if you if you just traded
bitcoin if you just traded bitcoin and nothing else and in the previous cycle you know in like say
february 2021 you saw bitcoin at 60k you sold it and then you just disappeared you just disappeared for
two two and a half years you would have outperformed almost everybody so that's what you got to do
you just disappear hang on naki you would have missed out on buying btc sub 20. you can't disappear
you come you come up to two years later right so two years after february 21 you know would have been
like you know well yeah okay you would have just about missed the bottom so you would have you want
to come you would have wanted to come back at about 1.7 you know what one and three quarter years later
just just off for one and three quarter years right like that is that is fine or even a year
just off for a year come back in a year's time to see what it looks like and to be honest you know
that's basically my strategy and speaking of which i got to go to the school thanks for having me
appreciate the space guys no problem man for me because you had your hand up earlier man feel
free to talk man go ahead yo what's up yeah can you hear me we're good awesome yeah yeah nice uh
just always got to double check um but no man i mean crazy past 48 hours that's for sure i mean it
just the people that actually think trump tweets that out are just so fucking cringe it's it's
outstanding to me i mean it just reeked of eric trump and baron trump's you know sticky little dirty
fingers all over that tweet and donald was probably like why are we down a hundred million dollars in
our fund you need to fix this and he said here you go i'll give you my twitter for the afternoon
um and that's why too like i think yesterday was a valuable learning lesson for a lot of people in
the markets especially the people where this is their first cycle a lot of people are so wrapped up
and the like emotions of the market and if you have been an emotional trader for the past for this
cycle you have probably not done very well um it's been you know i mean even in the eighth month range
that we saw for the majority of for basically all of 24 right literally all of 24 24 went sideways
we we literally saw you know other than jan janet feb we saw 10 months of sideways price action if you
got wrapped up in the emotions and the you know the psychological warfare that this market plays on you
then you you probably got wrecked and i think this is just another like learning experience for a lot
of the people within the market um and it's important not to chase right we opened up we had a 10k
you know the largest cme gap ever um you had donald trump talking about ada xrp and solana when he's
never ever ever opened his mouth he can barely say bitcoin let alone what any of these altcoins are
um and for him to trump out a like cardano uh like guys come on um so for me it was just very much
of uh you know wait and see we'll probably get a retrace and you know i've been i've posted on my
timeline i'm looking at 75 000 on btc you know for a good retrace and i think that the four-year cycle
what naka was just talking about you know is very much of a old guard kind of mentality and thesis that i
think falls to the wayside especially as the this asset class matures and we fall more in line with
the broader liquidity cycles and the overall markets right when bitcoin was super young and the
bitcoin having had you know was more pertinent and had more weight than the four-year cycles
made more sense inherently but as it gets older and as you know look as the four-year cycle or just
you know the four-year cycle holds less and less weight essentially right um simple supply and
demand mechanics it has less of an effect on the actual supply and thus you know doesn't have as
much of an impact on price and that's just going to become more and more apparent over the years and
i think a lot of people that are going to try to chase the four-year cycle thesis um not only from this
cycle but also into next i think are largely going to miss the majority of the moves and are probably
going to be left bag holding for a large portion of of uh you know for during certain periods within
the market because as we've seen we've essentially seen many bull markets over the broader bull run
that we've had so far since the lows at 17 you know 15 16 17k and if you weren't quick to realize profits
through those mini bull cycles right then you were often left um you know holding holding bags and
becoming community members in a sense which has been pretty difficult but at the same time i think that
there is also the you know other side of the coin where we are currently having the cleansing within
the market that the market is needed for a long long time i've talked about it pump fund was an absolute
parasite on the space um a lot of the behavior that was occurring was cannibalistic and was not
inducive for the layer ones to actually do well and to thrive and this most recent pullback in the
market i think has left a lot of liquidity shook and a lot of that you know more immature uh liquidity
it's it's kind of made them come to realization that i think they'll start to understand that
the more valuable projects inherently are going to be better for your risk and for your capital to park
into stuff like um you know into quality projects that have good communities they're actually doing
good stuff and you could potentially get that wrap around where instead of people chasing the you know
next 1000x on pump fund where you maybe see real world assets you know and utility coins pop off over the
next 12 months and donnie was speaking on it and it's something that i've talked about for a while
now but i do think we fall more in line with a top in 2026 and i think that trump is playing the long
game and he understands that i think what he's trying to do is he's trying to set himself up for
the next three years because what he came into was an absolute fucking car wreck and he's trying to
in my opinion create a deflationary environment to fix the structural inflation that is baked into the
system that they will that would not be able to ever fix and would not ever hit their price target
two percent without a deflationary environment um and then what's to occur next is for them to start
printing money what in my opinion he's doing is he's sending us into a deflationary environment to fix
the inflation that's been baked into the system you know over the last three to four years with the
previous you know with the previous president and the uh you know the the previous uh
yeah the just all the bullshit that's been going on over the past four years and and they're trying
to get it to a place right where they can structurally start to stimulate again without having the
inflationary risks at be i think it's very important to realize too that the the terrorists are not
inherently you know people he wants to strong arm the united states into a into back getting us back
into a place of becoming a global superpower but more importantly what i think the tariffs are doing
what he's trying to do is he's trying to create a deflationary environment to fix the problems that
we've not been able to fix for the past 24 to 36 months um that is what i think is occurring and
that's what i think he's very aware of because what is most important to trump and what is most important
to him is his legacy he does not care what happens to the next guy in line he cares about what people
are going to say about his last name for the next hundred years to come and that's been very very
apparent and something that he's talked about and something that he's trying to leave in place for
his you know future kin and and so as we move forward i would expect that he understands
you know the short-term pain to be in a lot of his you know legislation and a lot of um in a lot of
his policies but he understands too that he's not stupid like he's just not doing this for fun he's
not doing this because oh it's you know it's all fun and games and yada yada he's doing it because
inherently what he's trying to do is he's trying to set himself up in his last term to leave a lasting
legacy and how can he do that he can do that by making you know building a strong economy and
building a strong you know overall country over the next you know three years at b which realistically
only has probably like you know uh 18 to 20 months um to do that but he's trying what he's trying to do
is he's trying to set the foundation and lay the foundation for himself and for his kin and
people that are following a four-year cycle in my opinion are going to be absolutely cooked over the
next you know over the next eight years like genuinely i think that if you're following a four-year cycle
that worked in a more immature asset class that worked in a more immature um young
you know sector at b but as it starts to mature and as we start to have a tighter and tighter
correlation to the broader markets then you know all everything that goes on in equity land everything
that goes in the broader monetary system affects crypto more and more and more and more so just some
things that i'm eyeing like and and also too like i like i said i am expecting 75k uh we rejected off of
the yearly open clearly um very very clearly and it was just very you watch those the bitcoin futures
open and we just rejected immediately off of you know almost to the dollar on new york open off of
the yearly open so i think that vix looks structurally very very sound right now it's clearly wanting higher
i've been calling this i've been calling that we take the december uh 18th highs and that for me will
signal a buying signal but i think we're in a window of weakness right now heading into the middle of
march and it's something that i've been calling for for a long time i did call for a pullback in the es i
was eyeing 56 to 5700 we're starting to see us really break down we obviously had you know structural
issues getting through 6100 it was very very apparent i talked about it we had failed to break
uh we had broken down from 6100 i think 59 out of the previous 53 trading days when we were up in that
range you know there's something to be said when people are calling for continuation in the broader
markets i mean you could probably show the es chart to somebody who's never charted in their life
and you know just ask them like look at this does this look like it's having troubles getting up to
this level it does not take a brilliant mind to see to view that and to see that um i think that once
you come down into 56 and 5700 you you know those are really really good levels to look to you know add
positions on if you have capital on the side and you've stabled up if you if you're able to
you know muster up any liquidity at b you know then those are going to be really really good buying
signals once we do come down into that levels and people are so worried about you know liquidity
events liquidity event that i genuinely think that long term the long term uh effects of the legislations
that you know the legislation that is coming down the pipeline is not priced in one bit and it's
obviously going to take a lot of time to get there but at the same time if you have a long-term horizon
and a long-term outlook i think you're going to be doing just fine and it's very very apparent too
that you know things have had a tough time against bitcoin the institutional flows has supported this
cycle for the entire run up right we've been swimming against a you know very very tough
monetary regime essentially where we did not have in previous cycles we have not seen easy money this
cycle retail has not had the savings that they had last cycle you have had you know also on top of that
you have not had the wealth effects that have occurred in previous cycles where they've been able
to they haven't been able to compound on each other like they did in 2017 and 2020 and 2021 where
when you had these wealth creation events you know people there wasn't the emphasis and there was
more of an incentive to hold your positions and to essentially continue to bid and to compound
and for allow that wealth that wealth creation event to compound on top of itself and then that's
why you saw an alt season you saw all to do very very well where this what we've seen is the complete
opposite you have a wealth creation event and everybody is just so quick to g everybody's so quick to exit
their bags and there isn't you know people what they essentially do is they you know with these
wealth creation events is it's more of a wealth destruction event you know where you have retail
and a lot of these less knowledgeable market participants enter into plays like trump like
melania expecting for you know more of a continued uh you know continued price action to the upside
and you have essentially a parasitic cannibalistic liquidity environment that just gobbles up
all this new fresh liquidity and it takes a long time for that to reset that's what that's what we saw
happen in my opinion for over the eight months right you saw people entering in at the highs oh mount
gox you know oh germany selling oh israel palestine war you know and people entering into these alts in
the meantime where they're not positioned into bitcoin and you get these really short you know really
short not long-lived uh pumps and the insiders and the people that got in super super early are just
completely taking advantage of the new retail participants and that's why i've been calling for
cleansing the market needs to happen and what we've been seeing with a you know destruction of
pump fund and almost no tickers bonding in my opinion is beautiful um you know chads was on here
last week saying that it's indicative of a bull market and it's good to see but if you want to see
compound growth within the sector and within the altcoin specifically you need to see shit like pump fund
die in my opinion um and that's potentially where we're getting that shift of perspective and
understanding and belief back into the real world utility um you know that could do very very well
and it's really interesting what happened this cycle is you had the whole narrative you know
everybody believed in utility last cycle the eth killers the l1s everybody was building our
bidding rwas and then this cycle towards the beginning of the bull market you had a vengeance
against the vcs and everybody bidding meme coins right and then it just you know it's so funny what
happens is now that it's just such human nature nature to go to each extreme and now we went to such an
extreme to where the liquidity you know there's no compounding of wealth within within the sector as a
whole and so it's and now it's my opinion now we shift back towards the rwa shift back towards
the real world you know assets and utility coins potentially but they're gonna have a different
spin on it they're gonna have a different you know there's gonna be a different paradigm and
understanding and belief by the markets of what they actually want to bid in but i think it's going to
take a shape of the you know take shape of what we've seen in previous cycles but it's just going to be a
you know you know a different shade of gray essentially um but it'll still be the same gray
uh so i'm just kind of rambling right now i see david has his hand up
david what's up brother go ahead man
yeah first man awesome room man you guys you guys are killing it congrats man um
my hand's been up for a little while but i do appreciate you uh jumping up calling me out i
i i am uh i was listening earlier and there was the guy that came in i'm not sure who he was
uh but i listened you know i listened to his whole uh spiel for i don't know 10 minutes or whatever it
was and it was interesting because as i was listening to him his first eight minutes was about how
it was a bear market and uh things were done and then his last two minutes was like but
what you never really know it might pump again and and so i just feel like it is this whole
sentiment i just keep hearing that type of stuff you know um i've been i've been you know i haven't
been here as long as a lot of you guys but i've been hanging out in this space for about three years
and i think for all of us we just gotta do our own homework and just uh you know stick to like for
me i just try to stick to the fundamentals you know for me fundamentals bitcoin i like to play
around with soul a little bit you know obviously not any type of advice financial advice but i just
wanted to i just gotta throw that out there because i think sometimes we get hung up you know we we
listen to people and then we go and we make bad moves or or we make the wrong move or who knows
sometimes maybe you make the right move but i think for everybody listening there's a lot of
people in here i went i went through so so for me i i bought you know the first time i bought
something a substantial amount um you know a week later uh the market did like a 15 percent dip
and i was not used to that and i got super nervous i stayed up all night i sold almost everything i had
at a loss and then a day and a half later it was right back to where it was and you know it was it
was a tough lesson for me but it was a lesson that i learned myself by going through that you know so
i'm in it for the long run and so anyway i just want to share that but i do i just first i want to
say great room man you guys you guys are doing awesome appreciate you know keeping this open just
because i know there's a lot of people right now that are probably down a bit and not sure what to do
so it's good to keep the the dialogue going for a lot of people you know and i think a lot of people
i honestly try try not to look at it too much now but um you know i will pop in here and there and
when i see you guys and and you know see see what's going on so with that back to you
yeah uh chamath onamana papatia posted something um earlier today which was quite telling he posted
it about two hours ago and uh it was really similar to what prometheus was saying um trump is
essentially going to drive prices lower to a certain point so that people that aren't asset heavy
can actually get in and you know chamath does make some pretty good points right like trump's like
main popularity base being middle-aged people that are not asset heavy uh younger people that are not
asset heavy and like there has to be some sort of incentive for people to believe in the american
dream again right freedom via capital gains and also home ownership um so you know he only has 18 months
to prove that right and you know it's not to say that this downside is probably going to happen for
like the next 12 months but whatever downside is going to happen i think is going to happen
a lot faster uh than we know it for broader markets and at some point you're going to have
to bid and be willing to take that take any sort of loss in case you're wrong because nobody's perfect
if everyone was 100 when it comes to markets we wouldn't be here right now right we'd be in some
island or something right but um yeah thanks for the thanks for the compliments david and thank you all
so much uh in the audience for coming through i know spaces two hours ago we were supposed to
start weren't working right now so appreciate you guys pulling through uh in case you guys are new
here and uh you guys have been enjoying the stream over the last hour and a half and have enjoyed the content
and some of the stuff that i've been saying that donnie's been saying that all the other speakers
have been saying over the last hour and a half feel free to give us a follow feel free to
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space is recorded as always so if any of you guys want to come on up by the way if you guys are here
in the audience and have been tuned in over the last hour or so and have any questions or feel free
to give your views on the markets uh feel free to click that request button to the bottom left and i'll
bring you right on up so um donnie prometheus is there anything else that you guys uh want to touch upon
before i uh start bringing people up and stuff like that um what did i want to say i was i was gonna
say something about what david said something about how the narrative like keeps changing or something
like that and it's just like you have to understand on social media platforms right whatever the daily bias
is for the day that's what's going to get the most attention so if you know candles go up and you're
watching crypto content you're more inclined to just see more bullish posts because they get a
garner more engagement things like that you'll have analysts flipping their bias you know who don't
actually know anything and then like the next day if that candle retraces people are going to put
bearish posts up they're going to get more engagement they're going to flip their bias so it's very
important to like you know follow people for a long time a large majority of people pay attention to
their posts see what they actually get correct and what their you know sort of win rate is with
how predictive they are in the market and then start unfollowing people who just keep flip-flopping
that's like a good thing that when i started learning in this space that's what i did i followed a bunch of
analysts and slowly i came to you know only follow like a handful because truly like people just
engagement farm on this app to you know get engagement and stuff so yeah
all right i uh brought up a few people in the audience uh guys i just have one favor please be
nice please be kind understand that there are people behind these pfps avatars whatever you want to
call them and uh i do have to go here soon so yo we have one i got something real quick i got
something real quick yeah uh yeah david i was in that space i'm pretty sure you were in gary cardone's
space back in oh man that was like six months ago or something like that yeah it was probably in like
september october but i mean i think it's just a great learning experience for everybody in these
markets and it's definitely important to come to your own conclusions and it's important to
you know find your own belief systems within the market because if you aren't able to
come to that conclusion and you're able to learn from your experiences or if you're not able to come
to your conclusions then you'll never be able to learn from your experiences and then you're just
literally learning nothing in the markets and you'll never be a successful trader and you'll never
never will be successful in these markets without that so come to your own conclusions you know do your
own research actually figure out and find your path within these markets and you'll eventually find your
way i promise some people find it a little bit easier than others but it's important to you know
take what somebody says and then go actually you know see if it's correct you know see if it makes
sense and then come back and you know test it and build out your own thesis so
all right so here's what we're gonna do we're gonna go ahead and get to the people that uh
uh request it up we're gonna try to limit it to like two to five minutes um i do have to go here
pretty soon so we're gonna pass it on first to uh bro migo for migo what's going on bro hey what's
up wabi thanks for having me on so let's just say that we are in a bear market if that's the case
i'm wondering what you guys think that means for ethereum because ethereum never beat its last
cycle high i mean we made it you know we danced around 4k but we never actually went above the
last cycle high so oh you know this the crypto space has been joking around for quite a quite quite
all you know over the course of the past year or so i've um been making jokes about about eth but uh
yeah it's just is eth actually cooked like what is that if we are going into a bear market and eth never
put in a new all-time high then what does that mean for it long term yeah i mean me personally man it's
like i believe in ethereum long term because i think they're literally going to digitize everything
um and how are they going to do that they're going to do that using ethereum but ethereum like the point
i was making earlier in the space ethereum is probably the best way to visualize how difficult
um or the the environment that we've been in from a from a monetary stance and and if you you know view
that you view ethereum and then you view bitcoin it just goes to show how strong the institutional
bid for bitcoin has actually been but i do think on ethereum like if you break like just looking at
ethereum like if you break in my opinion 1700 and and you go back down to that range back down below
realistically like 1900 it's like it's not good like all these people calling for like dude i'm sorry
ben cohen i'm gonna put them on blast right now but like ben cohen calling for ethereum to a thousand
and then new all-time highs like that's a fucking joke um it just like it will completely break
structure and you think that liquidity is going to flood back into the ticker once it you know absolutely
wrecks everybody and bends them over and gives them a new one no um but it's the best way to visualize
how difficult uh or how tough of a uh monetary and fiscal environment that we've been in like it is
literally eth bitcoin is that it is that visualized on the chart
yeah if we go into a bear market um like an actual real bear market right where like the s p
goes to like 5000 or a little below 5000 maybe like 4800 or something like that that's like a pretty
that's like a pretty big level i think that was actually like our previous high um from like
or just above our previous high from january 2022 um then soul's probably going to like 40 bucks
uh pump fun is pretty much dead at this point a lot of the volumes uh that have come from retail this
cycle have gone on to soul and pump fun is a pretty has been a pretty big onboarder of that same thing with
moonshot both moonshot and coinbase are have that have been consistently going lower on the app store
day after day since melania and trump coin released so if soul's going to those levels then east probably
like goes back uh to summer lows of 2022 um and that's not even being like obscenely bearish you're only
talking about like a 60 percent correction um amidst like a 20 downturn on uh on the s p this is just
full-blown bear market right um those are just my opinions but i think like fundamentally east just
needs something where the token itself is being used as collateral to borrow against in 2017 and from like
late 2016 throughout 2017 um you would buy a bunch of east to participate in icos and then in 2020 and 21
you had uh defy which required you to buy a ton of ease to participate in these liquidity pools and stuff
like that to get all that yield and so far this cycle um east has predominantly just been used uh for
for meme coins right and they've only been a handful of memes on east so that's something uh to think
about that those are just those are just my thoughts man um but vitalik is like trying to change some
leadership hope that answers your question man don do you want to touch on that or or do i move on to
the next guy yeah move on to the next one okay uh i'll pass it on over now to uh gorilla bulls he's uh been
trying to request been trying to request for a while gorilla bulls what's going on bro hey what's going
on everyone thanks for having me up letting me uh speak you know i enjoyed the space i was in here for
a little bit um towards the end there but uh did you do you guys talk about like b and b earlier because
if it's the largest use like chain right and like they put that sec case on pause or whatever and
their marketing like the binance marketing lady wants to forex it to make it even larger right wouldn't
that be like the wouldn't that be like bullish though like you know what i mean wouldn't that cause some
sort of bullish move in the market overall like towards like ethereum or xrp something you know
what i mean like do you think it's just all out bear market is that what you guys are like your
analytics are saying or what well i i i don't think bsc is the largest chain um even with volume i think
solana solana and hyperliquid still rank among the top even sonic has had more flows um than binance
smart chain so um yeah i'm not i'm not sure where that was posted and as far as like marketing stuff
and all of that uh i don't really follow that too much uh donnie prometheus i don't know if you guys
want to touch on that is i haven't really experimented on bmb at all to be honest and i
think that like cz is honestly trying way too hard to get people to use his coin especially with his
shout outs on broccoli which he literally tried to self-induce a liquidity crunch which didn't even
work and then shouting out the ronaldino coin which um is pretty much just another grifter celebrity
pump and dump thing by sahil yeah it's been an insignificant change this cycle so far so unless
they change something fundamentally then like it's not really going to be bullish for bmb can they
spark like the broader market probably not like we saw yesterday even with trump's announcement right
the market just isn't ready to maintain that sort of move yet why because there's too much uncertainty
this week specifically with like economic data and all this kind of stuff plus the next fomc you know
stock market scares of potentially going lower things like that once the landscape shifts then
you can look for catalysts like whether it be bnb doing something fundamentally or anything to you
know have these sustained uh essentially sustained up uptrends begin from these catalysts so it's more so
like the more important stuff like the economic stuff that needs to fully like clear up you know we've
still got tariff worries all this kind of stuff before you even think about catalysts
i'll pass it on over now uh to pargali pargali what's up man how's it going guys
um i'm just gonna have a few takes myself and i've listened to
a lot of the guys here as well and and all the interesting um points and everyone is seems to be in
a different kind of mindset is in terms of you know understanding the uncertainty of the market
right now um but i do see that there has been you know somewhat changes to the market especially if
you look at the mstrs has been somewhat leading indicator for calling tops for bitcoin essentially
and and also other crypto assets you can see that there has been quite significant structural changes
there um if you look at the cycles of mstr you see that it hardly corrected 50 for the bull run and
and on this occasion we've seen now correct almost 60 percent that is a quite a big change and a big
alarm i think in my point of view to really understand what's going on and if you look at the
you know current conditions in the s p 500 and also um with nas and all the big stocks
you also see that are we really in the kind of the end phase of the sell-off and to my understanding
i think you really need to understand the government's kind of you know objective here
especially what trump wants to achieve he really wants to take i think a bit more on the deflation
side of things so bringing asset prices is going to be one of his goals because essentially because
he's going to be doing tariffs he's going to be bringing revenue in terms of the you know tax receipts
from that he also wants to obviously achieve uh at the counter to that tariffs which could affect
the inflation which they do say that it's not going to affect inflation but that could be a
a potential outcome i think to counter that they probably would wish to get the asset prices which
had been bubbling for the last three to six months to you know calm it down and i do think that it's not
really a finished sell-off and that's my kind of take on it from looking at the charts and and seeing
how things flows are moving maybe we do potentially get like a 10 to 12 correction in the s p 500 and
obviously equivalent uh corrections and mass what that really means is if we're in the halfway through
this you know sell-off um it could mean that we see a more downside for bitcoin and others and that's
kind of my current you know reservation i'm not in the bear market kind of thesis on on crypto i do
think that it's quite healthy to have even you know 40 correction and you still get a kind of a top in
later on which has happened in 2021 you had like almost 50 correction but then you still had the market rip
up again of course that was you know beaten by uh a bear market that happened on you know on the indices
because of the fed hike and so forth so i think it's still healthy to see bitcoin even to towards 60k
here and still have a massive bull run afterwards because i think the goal again is for them you know
for the government is to get the asset prices down to a certain level where they feel comfortable to have
another bull run i don't think the recession is there yet in terms of the asset prices coming down
because of recession i just think that there's a potential for another you know nice correction here
for another uh bigger bull run which i suspect could happen sometime after april so there could be quite
a different change to the markets um you know you know how people are viewing this because you've got
to be quite open to different outcomes and i think uh i was also a believer that you know as as this
consolidation ways was continuing for two months and three months there would have been a potential
to take this up but you know it hasn't happened and even despite the strategic reserve which would
be seen as a catalyst it didn't really serve as a price change so i think that there should be kind
of a more downside protection and potentially we could see much much lower levels until we see the
the real bull market run
norton what's going on brother hello guys do you hear me loud and clear perfect perfect thank you
i want to say i appreciate all these different opinions uh i want to start by saying that i agree with
that on his take uh regarding the person earlier i believe his name was
he seemed very certain that the top was in and he was basically saying it's coming in a bit choppy brother
yeah your mic is a bit bad yeah yeah do you hear me yeah go ahead yep okay yeah so um am i still choppy or
do you hear me clear yeah you're good now man okay i'm good you're good now um no i'm i just want to
say uh nakamoto seemed very certain that was in and he was basically uh warning everybody uh well that's
what it felt like at least uh but but i'm just um listening with great interest to all these different
opinions and how it take one day for everybody to to change their thoughts about the entire cycle and to
easy to me i mean one day trace the ending of your mic's cutting out pretty badly again bro
are you covering your mic with your hands no i'm i'm actually i'm on my laptop now but is it okay if i
join uh through my phone because yeah yeah labs offer spaces is pretty bad just switch over to mobile
okay i'll be here in uh 20 seconds yep no problem man no problem okay
but yeah if your entire thesis changes uh in 24 hours from one candle bro like
like there's something wrong there like i'm all for changing your thesis because like the market's
dynamic things can change there's certain levels you lose whatever your system all this kind of stuff
but like 24 hour flip-flopping is just i don't know
donnie a weekly below uh 75 would not be good that would be like a death sentence almost here's the
thing positive scenario any higher low from 78 200 before the crypto summit you'll see hey guys uh i'm
back do you hear me yeah all good yeah okay perfect you're good now man yeah no i just i just wanted to
add uh do that um now i think it's very healthy to listen to many different opinions um but i think
if anyone can perfectly time the top then he's pretty much uh a genius so i think whether you believe
we're going to see a crazy bull run the next part of this year or what do you think we're at the
like you're entirely sure we've already topped like i just don't think anyone can truly predict that
and if there's one thing i've learned uh in my years throughout crypto and i've been here
since 2017 is that during these uncertain times you just don't want to make crazy decisions based on
emotion and right now we're in that spot i feel like that it's like it's very uncertain and you're
gonna have a lot of people who are not used to this who are gonna um be uh shaken out right
and um uh he uh he said he said just to like it it's annoying that he's not here but he said
it's starting like nakamoto he said it's starting to become a mature market
now if there's one thing this is not it's it's definitely not a mature market if you see how
emotional this market is you know someone a trump or eric trump can tweet one thing or whatever
and bitcoin can dump like 15 percent on the day and like the entire market is just you know like
they're done with it and everything and it's just this is not a mature market so to say like the four
year cycle um like is an old concept and like yeah that was me bro i mean i can i can add on it and i
think too to say that this i said to that the asset class is maturing i don't think that the asset class
is mature um i think that markets are inherently irrational in the short term in all markets and
i think that the cycle yes holds a lot less weight and to add to that and to add confluence to that
the correlation between btc and the broader markets is higher than it's ever been and if that's the case
then that means we fall more in line with broader liquidity cycles or global liquidity cycles rather
than bitcoin's four-year cycle yeah but it has been last cycle as well though i feel it kind of always
has been or at least also the last cycle at least um and if what you're saying is true like how do you see
it um with the feds uh ending uh uh quantitative tightening like probably around summer or uh like
like what do you expect uh to happen like from that point on like because if i'm just looking for
example and i i don't want to bring up bitcoin dominance because because it's just like an annoying
concept but do you for the people who think we've topped do you really feel like have we
ever topped with bitcoin dominance being at 61 percent or higher has has crypto ever topped there like
never right so if you actually believe we've talked then do do you guys expect uh dominance we just range
at 60 to 70 percent oh no no i'll i'll touch on this man um the thing with dominance is that a lot of
the flows this cycle have predominantly come from trad fi right a lot of the heavy heavy heavy flows
have all come from trad fi and the thing is right like if you look at bitcoin dominance and continue
to ask ourselves oh each btc this oh bitcoin dominance that look at what happened last cycle
last cycle last cycle last cycle it's it's essentially lazy analysis and you're discrediting
the flows from this cycle right even though right like there may be it's not my main indicator though
i want to add it's not i'm just bringing it up i'm just bringing it up i didn't hear many people
mention it yet you know and another thing too the thing that people touch on previous cycles there's
there's also an issue with the sample size quantity that we have right i mean realistically we only have
two previous cycles that we can actually look back on and analyze like the the cycles before the cycles
before 2017 you can't even look at those and like you know there's no there's no indication indication
that you can get from anything that occurred you know pre 2016 2017 and thus because of that we only
have a sample size of two cycles which is inherently not enough i mean when people back test and you compare
to previous cycles you are comparing it to only two other instances which in my books is not enough
to you know have any relative uh there's no like there's no relevance in my opinion to what occurred
in each cycle too you have to look at its own individual instance as well so i think that's where
people get like really tripped up on everything with the previous cycles and comparing it to this cycle
i i i agree with you uh regarding that um but what you're saying pretty much is this time it's
different right and and and and not to discredit your analysis or what you're saying like i do agree
um um with like anything before 2017 obviously it's like you can't take that serious right and like
we're still pretty early overall but um i just personally think it's a bit too early to already um say that we've
topped like um i mean it's q1 okay yeah it's march like we expect it to go higher sooner um but you're
always going to have these things like you wouldn't expect right uh during the cycle like you're going
to have this happen it happens every cycle it's not going to go entirely to plan but i still believe
we have some catalysts which have been mentioned before um and that should come up um and that could
possibly just you know change change everything again so um yeah no i just i just wanted to add that
yeah we would need tradfy to actively like sell their ibid or to sell their btc to get those flows into
alts right previous cycles retail was actively buying btc um now it's like you know all these etf flows come in
but you don't really see those candles in the charts it usually takes a while for that kind
of stuff to be baked in right or sometimes it's front run right like like with sailor
uh sometimes you'll see high volume spikes and then it's announced that he was the one that's been
buying like we need more than just like tradfire sailor because they're not really going to be buying their btc to
bid all coins yeah um especially like on chain alts and that's why like you know you've seen how high
some alts can go and their ceiling has been a hell of a lot lower than some all coins from previous
cycles right luna went to like 40 bill we're not seeing that avax went to like 25 bill we're not
seeing that right the ceiling has usually been like five bill three bill six bill and then we have the
exception which is pepe which hit 13 bill um and that one got a robin hood listing so it's kind of
like the same equivalent as elon going to snl you had that and then elon was bull posting pepe
for like an entire week to the point where he changes pfp multiple times so um during that entire
time period since the ftx low dominance has really only had these shallow pullbacks and that's come
from whales that have been in this game for some time that enjoy playing alts and the market cycle
you have to think about it like this right if you want dominance to truly truly truly go down
you need more altcoin inflows compared to like like the inflows from alts uh from people buying alts
need to outweigh the inflows that are coming from btc right so if you're bullish alts you're basically
saying uh retail is going to be buying alts more so than the consistent swap buying that tradify is
doing uh for btc um so there's that and then i mean i think what we just have to watch out for is
the ending of quantitative tightening i think at that point right like it's truly off to the
races it's just that when it comes to dominance right uh that's what i'm looking out for that's
what i'm looking out for yeah we just have to taper our expectations right like dominance right now is
in the upper 60s or mid 60s or whatever um instead of saying hey it's going to go all the way down to
like 35 38 as it did during last cycle maybe something a bit more conservative like hey dominance is going
to go back to like 40 percent uh because at that point right when dominance is actually trickling
down on a multi-week time frame you're actually like on a timer um for the rest of the mark at the
top you're going against time at that point because there's only a small amount of time left to extract
those are just kind of my thoughts and why it's been hard to track dominance and hey man i've been at
that side too right i thought dominance was gonna top like the week of the election or the week during
thanksgiving or whatever right so i think everybody has gotten the timing a bit wrong on that and now
it's just like we just have to rely on macro uh at at this point when it comes to like broader
all season rather than like you know broader market um oh crap i forgot my train of flight because i do
i do have to go here man but yeah i want to add to that instead of like pvp sectors but i do have
to can it here man uh but for me just go ahead yeah yeah i gotta i gotta go as well i'll just say i'll
just say peace out to you guys here i thanks for having me on the you guys next time yeah yeah for me
just go ahead man yeah yeah i gotta call in like two minutes yep i'll be super quick um yeah i mean
to be focused on bitcoin dominance you have to ask yourself inherently why would bitcoin bleed versus
the rest of the all market um and the what would be the stimulative stimulative events that would
occur that would allow for that much liquidity to enter the market or already be in the market to
where people are willing and wanting to bid alts to that extent to where bitcoin dominance falls by 20
and you have to ask yourself that and then you answer that if you think that that is the case and
so what i think potentially occurs like i said and i don't think i not because the cycle is over i
don't think the cycle is over i think like i said we fall more in line with global liquidity cycles
which means 2026 is the top um and then at the same time when we do get you know stimulative events
down the road i think that's potentially when you have bitcoin dominance fall and maybe eath btc gets a
bit again who knows but um to say that eath btc uh you know pumping and bitcoin dominance falling is
marking a top right now is yet to be seen again because of the current environments and and you
know things dynamics that be
all right with that being said guys i'm going to go ahead and wrap it up here i want to thank
prometheus i want to thank donnie i want to thank grant i want to thank david everybody else who came up on
the panel to contribute to talk shop with us here at bb thank you all so much guys if you've enjoyed
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