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Market Talk- BIG WEEK AHEAD! Is the bottom in for stocks and crypto!?
Recorded: March 31, 2025 Duration: 2:17:51Space Recording
Short Summary
The discussion highlights a volatile market environment with potential growth opportunities as ETH and BTC form bottoms, while meme coins and on-chain activity are expected to gain traction. Despite current declines and lack of interest, there is optimism for a market recovery and growth in the coming months, contingent on macroeconomic factors such as tariffs and monetary policy.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. The End Oh And the world is a world of people. Oh Oh Yes. Oh I love you. I love you. I love you. I love you. I love you.
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What is going on guys? Welcome, welcome, welcome. Happy Monday, happy Monday. Hope you're all doing okay. Hope the weekend was fantastic for all of you. Donnie, hold on, give me a sec. sorry about that guys sorry about that the 10th or something really quick outside of the apartment
but nonetheless guys hope you all had a fantastic weekend hope
everything uh was okay with you guys right uh it's been a tough market for a lot of individuals
and um man i think the first thing i'll touch upon is uh the equity markets we actually made
new year-to-date lows and we we immediately had a huge buyback to the point where from today's low, we rallied about 120 points, which is pretty astronomical.
We also have the Liberation Day, the Trump tariff Liberty Friday, whatever he wants to call it, on the 2nd.
If it ends up being a nothing burger, then happy days, happy days on chain might actually have some opportunities.
But if it spooks the market, then boy, oh boy, I don't want to know what's under a few levels below certain altcoins, right?
I don't want to see where the trapdoor leads on certain altcoins, right?
We had ETH yesterday actually $20 away, $25 away from making new year-to-date lows.
year-to-date lows and man i looked at the eth btc monthly chart and eth btc has not had
more than one green monthly candle in a row basically back-to-back months where eth btc
is green in almost three years the trend for ETH BTC has basically been
a ton of red monsters.
Oh, shit.
Wow.
Something just fell in the apartment, guys.
Wow.
Donnie, did you hear that?
Yeah, what was that?
It sounded like paranormal activity, bro.
It was like a pretty huge vase.
Shit.
Yeah, it was a pretty huge vase.
Was it you or a ghost?
Yeah.
Damn.
Oh, boy.
That is going to be quite something to clean up.
quite something to clean up man yeah this this space is is uh is starting off in a pretty uh
Man.
exciting fashion man that's the bottom lobby was it
it sounds it's it sure sounds like it it sure sounds like it man but uh i think i'm gonna go
ahead and get the show started guys we're just're just going to go ahead and start the show.
Not too much interesting price action today outside of the equity markets, which, man,
the equity markets have really provided a lot more volatility to both the upside and
the downside compared to crypto.
Crypto has just kind of been pretty choppy.
Sol hasn't really done much.
ETH certainly hasn't done much most of the action has
really just been in a select few names uh within the on-chain markets and i think the biggest wall
of worry is still probably just going to continue to be april 2nd right and of course we also have
the fomc later on uh this month so guys welcome welcome before we officially get started guys before we officially get started you guys can go ahead and do us a solid
favor and show some love to the space the best way to show some love is through
doing a few things number one go ahead and click the spaces link and then once
you click the spaces link you'll see right above our profile pictures right above our avatars
You'll see a little link that says x.com slash I slash spaces
Yes, and go ahead and smash up the like button smash up the heart button smash up the repost and retweet button as it helps
Bring more eyes and ears the algorithm helps bring more awareness of the brand
Right spaces are recorded
this is market talk brought to you by because bitcoin hosted by me wabi and i'm pretty sure
it's just going to be me and donnie um i did message matt and also paul paul hasn't been on
here for a couple of months i think the last time he was on here was in early December. We were talking about the prospect of Farcoin being this cycle's Doge.
And yeah, welcome, guys.
I think we're to the point where a lot of people really just don't want to be associated with crypto.
associated with crypto it seems like we're back to that we're back to those levels um I think
It seems like we're back to that.
We're back to those levels.
inflection points similar to this would probably be like summer of 2022 that would be like the most
far back that I can recall that's even relevant to this stage of this cycle right here um and
also December of 2022 so man Donnie man I i hope you can inject me with some hopium
because brother i made the massive mistake of actually buying some things on eth and i'm like
yo in case i'm wrong i'm gonna buy some of this shit and it's actually down and i'm like man who
could have foreseen i knew i was right what the hell is wrong with me? I should have just donated to charity, to be honest.
But either way, man, brother, I guess we can start off by what do you do for your morning routine, man?
When are we going to get a Donnie morning routine, brother?
Have you seen that video?
The morning routine guy?
I did, bro.
That was hilarious yeah dude dude look bro the way i think about it we got to make at least
another 20 000 brother and we have to be up in the air for another four minutes
and we jump in the pool bro so yeah isn't it crazy donnie bro? Like, if that was actually made into a coin back when, like, Solana was super hot and on-chain was super hot, that thing would be trading at, like, a billion right now.
Yeah, I would agree.
At least somewhere deep in the hundreds of millions.
Even FAT, for example, they get so many views on their videos, right?
But far out.
The price is only, like like 13 million market cap at the
moment. That goes to show the state of the on-chain, to be honest, for new runners especially. So
again, people are just pulling back into things that they're comfortable and that they know that
they've got lots of chart history and hoping the market starts to recover over the next couple of months like there's just no appetite for new stuff I would think right now
yeah I would say unless it's like a lot of I would say unless it's like utility
that thing topped out at like 90 mil market cap i remember i sold at 13 cents and it peaked out
23 so utility right now is kind of capped at just under 100 mil and memes are at like 50 mil
we saw it happen with please and then uh i think uh late last week we had gibley
it hit like 42 43 and i got it actually got listed uh during our spaces and now it's down
like 90 percent geez bro um it's so crazy how how exchanges have been listing these meme coins left and right,
just trying to make as much money on fees as possible
when the time to be listing all of that stuff was back in November.
Because ultimately, all of that topped out after Doge.
Not Doge.
After Whiff and Pepe got that listing on robin hood that was like
fucking the coinbase ipo moment really
yeah i you know it makes sense that coins aren't running right now to a high degree one obviously
because of the fear but also because people are down therefore they can't sell bags that are up uh and only it
being a small percentage of their bag to you know try a new trade or something like that right so
liquidity is super scarce therefore like you know these guys who are launching stuff now are just
either trying to make a quick buck or um they're not aware that the conditions just aren't good
enough for um their ideas,
which might be really good ideas to actually have a sustained rally
and solidify themselves higher.
You can imagine if everyone's deep in profit, right?
If you're at all-time highs and someone drops a banger
that's going super viral on the internet,
the amount of liquidity they'll pour in just because there is so much of it
because everyone's up.
Tokens can fly to 500 million, a billion,
like it's nothing. Just from
rotations.
Donnie, brother,
man, I'm hoping
we at least have a summer rally
at the very least.
That's akin to a small
echo bubble, right? It seems like for the indices at least, that's akin to a small echo bubble.
It seems like, for the indices at least, which if you're bullish on Sol and ETH,
the indices are extremely important.
Bitcoin can do its own thing, but if you're bullish on-chain,
you really want the indices to relax a little bit.
But that 5,400 region on the SPx seems like a huge huge huge demand zone
5400 or 5100 are the levels that like we've been talking about on indices and kind of seeing some
some reaction levels right i think 5100 is the low that we sat in august after uh that whole like yen carry trade and then 5400 was uh
the higher low that we eventually set like a month or so after that in september
yeah yeah i'm looking for i'm looking for crypto to potentially bottom out first um given the
context that we have ahead of potentially
the Fed wanting to ease conditions at these next few meetings.
Yeah, the main thing right now is just getting this tariff deadline out the way, which you
explained it pretty simply at the start.
You kind of have like three scenarios at the moment.
The worst case, which is what's technically being priced in right now
or being hedged against is a full-blown trade war.
He announces it.
This is it.
This is the final decision.
And that's it kind of thing.
And then you get retaliations from China and things like that.
And markets will just keep nuking, right?
Or which I think, I think that's very unlikely.
You know, you've had like Besant pretty much say that they don't want to crash this landing
or whatever.
So I think, you know, if the market goes down low enough, they're even going to want to
pull back what they're trying to implement to, you know, to some degree to stabilize
the market to some level, right? i don't think they want that crash so you know
in saying that that's kind of like my lowest probability outcome right plus anytime we do
have these um fear events you know and fear gets priced in going up to that date
and fear gets priced in going up to that date,
more often than not, that does tend to mark a bottom
once you get past that hurdle,
as long as it's not actually worse than it seems,
which again, I don't think it is.
And in the base case, it's just as expected,
what Trump's been saying.
And he's been saying,
I think people are going to be happy with these tariffs.
They're not as severe as you might
think, all this kind of stuff. If it's digestible enough by the market, and we can just move on,
and all these other countries just agree to some degree, there's some sort of deal sorted and stuff,
and they can get past it, then I think the market just slowly digests that over April
and moves on to just looking at the US economy
and the data around that going into those FOMC meetings.
That's kind of like my base case as well,
that you just get past this date
and it's not upside, it's not downside.
It's just like stabilization of prices before you hit higher.
And then the best case scenario is that the tariffs are way more watered down than anyone's expected.
And you'll instantly get a candle on equities and BTC and start building an uptrend right away in April.
Which, again, that's probably a low probability outcome for me as well. Just because I'm not really, yeah, I'm just not thinking that's the case, right?
He's been, it would just be like super, it would be super weird to have him, you know,
throwing these tantrums online. And then all of a sudden, it's just like, all of that was just
a show kind of thing. it would be almost too obvious
market manipulation right so that's why i don't think it's going to play out like that i'm kind
of just leaning towards that base case of it's just you get past that date and everyone's just
like oh okay you know another week passes by oh it's not really that bad you know no more
retaliations economic data is looking good and you incrementally build up over April until maybe you have the US 10-year rolling below 4%,
DXY losing 103.2.
That's going to cause the market to front run anything coming out of the Fed, essentially.
And then you get the confirmation at the FOMC and you start bolting up much higher.
That's kind of what I'm thinking. And I shared the chart there. I shared this chart on the 24th of March and I just, you
know, updated it today. Literally nothing's changed. Like you're probably headed for 79k
to grab that liquidity. Confirm some sort of accumulation around here. It's been like
five weeks of forming this bottom, right? Pretty solid bottom formation
relative to how long this entire range has been, right? You can kind of split it up into thirds.
You had the first top, second top, and now you're forming the bottom. They're all roughly around
like four to five weeks long each. So yeah, it's looking good. And there's so many charts to go over to kind of build out the thesis
of how it's going to play out.
But if you look at the US 10-year right now,
I'll keep the terminology simple as hell.
You've come down from 4.6%.
You're forming this bear flag.
You've literally fully rejected that supply zone that you had above
or resistance,
let's call it. And you've got five weeks or more until the FOMC to where this thing is already now
at 4.2% confirming this bear flag pattern, aka going lower. And you've got five weeks to lose
that 4.1% low. If this thing heads to 4%, you can basically lock in a rate cut at the May 7th FOMC.
The only thing is we don't want things to break so that the Fed then has to act out
of necessity and being in a weak position so that they have to come and intervene.
You don't want that because then the market will just go much lower
before it gets better.
You kind of want them to cruise into this.
So hopefully the tariffs are that base case.
And I think US 10-year, it's just got so much time for this to play out
to get near or at 4% or lower before that FOMC.
This is ultimately going to dictate the rate adjustment stance.
Plus you've got DXY
also forming another bearish shoulder here.
it's really close to losing
even local structure
to head lower back to that 103.2
level, which if you're going to head back
down there, I think you're going
there to lose it. And it's because of
these positive
milestones throughout April with economic data unfolding. And again, you've got five weeks for
this chart to play out, and it's already super low. And if DXY goes lower, Global M2 is going
to go higher. So we're at this very key pivot point where BTC is bottoming, man, even ETH is bottoming. Like you've
literally got that range low at 1.750. You came up, you built liquidity behind you, you came back
and swept all of it. But now you're forming this local accumulation. You know, I shared that PO3,
right? You had the range, this manipulation zone below, you know, 2.1k, you're coming to form a local accumulation in this manipulation zone where
you might deviate that $1750 level of BTC sweep 79 and then come back up if we bounce
from the tariffs being around that base case, form a clean accumulation here and start building
up in April to get back above 2.1, start breaking key levels to the upside,
maybe late April, start of May.
And that's the low.
Everything is at this key pivot point.
It just needs that push or confirmation
from these little milestones coming in April.
So it's all ready.
Nothing is confirmed.
But if you do get that confirmation,
things can start to look good really quick.
Like ETH is forming a bottom, BTC is forming a bottom,
SPX, potentially the bottom is already in.
And even with SPX, you had that range low, 5.5,
you just deviated it, right?
Another sign of a clean accumulation, right?
Deviating the lows causes a lot of fear.
And typically, market makers, whales and stuff
fill orders on these deviations.
So you're forming an accumulation on the stock market as well.
You've got the US 10-year forming trend continuations
and the trend is downwards the way that we want.
Same with DXY, trend continuation pattern formations for lower
and Global M2 wanting to break back into highs
to continue the uptrend.
And we know that this, how GlobalM2 has played out,
is literally like a two-year setup of you've been in this range
all of like essentially from the top of 2022 in March,
well, when Global global liquidity peaked,
you've been below that point
all the way until July 2024.
So two years, you broke out,
you came back down,
you retested this two-year level,
and now you're wanting to confirm
that range breakout,
like to break into new highs again.
If you get this confirmation,
things are going to go so much higher so quickly, I think.
Not even I think.
If you actually get the confirmation, it's done.
It's just whether we get it or not.
So let's hope we don't have to go through this trade war nuke
after April 2nd, which I think is super unlikely.
But yeah, everything is ready.
Just give it a shove.
And May and June could be super, super high prices.
And we've been waiting for this for months, Swabby.
Like this April into May.
Yeah, the previous trade war happened from August 2018 all the way until December.
So about four months.
This trade war has been going on for about two months.
So it's better to rip off the Band-Aid now, to be honest.
Even if all we do is an expedited version of the range that we did last year man uh dude remember last year
while btc was ranging most of the price action was on soul and i'm never gonna make that mistake
of going on eth probably ever again man um every single time i try to be optimistic
on mainnet specifically it just kicks me in the balls.
And you remember, bro, last year from March all the way until August,
we had Giga going crazy, Moo Moo, Billy smoking chicken fish, right?
Like ranging environments are often more than not extremely good for chains that thrive
on user acquisition which is on chain right and soul has been like one of the one of the chains
that have benefited from this like weird choppy environment right uh with some things on base of course and dude even things on avax like
i've been doing somewhat okay but that's just a chain that i'm probably never gonna like
be super optimistic about where i have to talk my book on that stuff but um yeah we also have
like a few new tokens that have been doing decent when like majors are trending from their local bottom.
And even if all we do, bro, is just a rally towards March highs, right?
That March, the March open basically was when Trump tweeted out all those tickers.
Even if we just rally up to that, you could have like an on-chain runner that runs to like 150 or so. Get above that 100 mil level for something on-chain runner that runs to 150 or so.
Get above that 100 mil level for something on-chain
that's not like a celebrity pump and dump.
I think the environment will, the morale at least,
will improve, man.
But, bro.
Yeah, so that's the thing though,
is you're at this point in all of these charts that are going to tell you,
is liquidity going to unlock to a level
where we can actually break into price discovery?
Or is it going to cap here
and things don't continue the trends,
aka DXY, Global M2, US tenure,
and actually this ends up being an exit rally.
So that's what we're waiting for in April.
If we get the continuations of those trends,
100% you're
going to be breaking into price discovery. So there's no point even thinking or speculating,
is it going to be a shoulder? Is it going to be continuation until you go through all of April?
So that's literally going to tell you these are forward-looking indicators of this global
liquidity cycle playing out. So yeah, I wouldn't spend too much thought on that.
And just one thing on what you were saying about the range.
Were you talking about the 74K range
when meme coins were going nuts?
Yeah, if we recall,
when we topped that 74K back in March of last year,
anytime we would have these rallies from like the mid 50s
uh or late 50s and we would blow through 64k there would always be some runner right when we rallied
to like 71k uh going into late q2 you had a ton of things on bass pop you had retardio going crazy
giga started pumping like crazy and then
when we pumped once more in the summer like towards late july after trump uh got shot
you had things like billy smoking chicken fish nero all going crazy on solana and so if we're
just gonna do that right where yes we do make lower lows on majors, but for the most part, they just trend sideways, then on-chain is going to be where it's at.
But it's probably, for the most part, going to be new tickers. rallies usually going into a top for majors they typically just stagnate and bleed against the rest
of the market regardless of like how strong the narrative is right so history doesn't repeat itself
but it often rhymes right i would just say that the difference with that is in the btc range right
the prior one uh you had nvidia and the SMP doing well throughout that range.
So anytime they continued going higher while BTC was just chopping, you had these big bursts of
essentially risk appetite, return to the market to where people were just hungry to bid stuff.
And that's why I feel like meme coins and on-chain, plus it was still a newer narrative. Right now, it doesn't have the same effect. Memes just don't have that aura right
now until conditions flip majorly. They're probably not going to get that aura back to
where you can release a meme coin that's new and hasn't been done before and it just starts to rip.
It's literally because the context in the whole market right now is different. There's no risk appetite in any market, right?
That's why gold is breaking into price discovery.
So yeah, I just feel like that range was entirely different.
And right now we're waiting for a confirmation
of this global liquidity cycle,
but also all of this uncertainty to be behind us
so that risk appetite can incrementally come back in.
And that's where high-risk assets are going to do better,
like meme coins and stuff.
So yeah, it's not the same range.
If we do get what you're saying of like,
okay, DXY doesn't actually roll over,
therefore, global liquidity doesn't actually roll over therefore you know
global liquidity um doesn't break you know to new highs and it rolls back over to the range lows
sure that's going to be a ranging environment but it's going to be a one there's not going to be
you know much opportunity whatsoever just because um you know risk appetite won't be there
appetite won't be there yeah that would bring some uh some 2018 style price action which was
horrible that that was actually a disaster town in 2022 you at least had some things to trade even
though like the overall trend was down and same thing here right there have actually been some
things to trade even though the trades really only last like a couple of days like that kta trade mostly was completed within like seven days man that was
when you caught the meat of the move right i remember we uh talked about it on that spaces
on a wednesday or i think it was a wednesday or something that. And then again on a Friday. And then the next week, it shot up to like 80 mil plus. And that was the meat of the move, right? That was the extension of the move. dragged out you know a bit more slower on its uptrend instead of just like this wonky price
action where things go up for a couple of days or a week at max and then that's it like that's
that that's that that's the cap right that's the cap for a lot of these things it's like once you
start seeing something that's trending everyone just everyone that's at least super active and not complacent,
they just jump into the same ticker. And then they just want to max extract.
Just kind of what the market has been since the inauguration. Just max extract and just, just i don't know take take take profits g whatever you want to call it um i'm not sure like
what else crypto has for a catalyst outside of like outside of macro really like the
crypto exclusive narrative was fulfilled i think this cycle through the btc etf maybe soul but i feel like
that stuff has kind of been on pause they probably won't launch it launch it for some time
and imagine imagine if eth leads the market bro i think i'd jump off a bridge bro if that happens
but look i'll give it credit i think i'll give it credit but it's never rallied for
more than a month since uh the summer of 2022 but when it does rally right like we saw a rally from
eth btc from like november 8th you can fact check me on this like a day or so after the election all the way
up until like thanksgiving um eth btc actually had that small rally and those conditions were
fruitful right like bro we were fucking messaging um each other almost like every single hour on the
hour for weeks on ends from november all the way through
december bro and soul was cooking remember him remember sense and then shatter the goat
and a bunch of other stuff as well on soul that went crazy remember avb bro whoo boy yeah that
one i hit mooting i hit mooting right before the Binance purposeless thing, literally at the Pico bottom.
And fucking Peanut, bro. Dude, people forget
how crazy
Sol has been this cycle.
what's that other thing? The fucking
raccoon? The Peanuts
like brother or whatever?
Oh, Fred. Yeah, Fred.
100x
in three days. Yeah, dude. 100x in three days.
Yeah, dude.
People really, really, really underestimate the velocity of things on Sol.
Remember Pippin, dude?
Bro.
Yeah.
Yeah, you smashed them with that.
Yeah, dude.
Yeah.
Dude, funny enough, that was literally the last big banger AI trade.
That was back in January.
That basically cemented the top.
And that Sam Altman tweet, when he tweeted that OpenAI is achieving AGI later this year,
that basically marked the multi-quarter top.
I think AI is going to be back in a big way in Q4, though.
Like, I think Q4, that's when NVIDIA
probably trades at all-time highs.
It looks like a shitcoin, to be honest.
NVIDIA kind of looks like ETH in early January.
It really does.
But Q4, I think, like, AI is going to come back
in a massive, massive way.
And the best way to, like, take advantage of that in crypto is looking at a chain that has the most user acquisition, right?
The most explosive and escape velocity, and that's been Sol, right?
I really wish it was like another chain as well because you never know what soul shitters right
I really wish it was, like, another chain as well, because you never know what Sol shit is, right?
you never know if it's going to top at like the usual shitter on soul when things are hot in a
bull market it's usually like 30 mil right um and then you have that second ceiling which is at like
300 and then after that you know you go into the upper echelon of
half a bill plus
you never know with soul shitters
you really really never know
usually with AI it was like
alright are the devs doxed
and do they actually have
a history of building an AI
or are they just a crypto dev
trying to build AI right so like with
like with the shit that chill called out right like Griffin those people came from AI and they
were docks and they like had close ties at the soul foundation AI 16z all those guys were doxed as well so um i'm hoping bro i'm hoping we get like one more shot
at that because even even shit like render and tau had a second leg um in q4 of last year even
though it was mostly a double top they still had that massive leg up even though you had newer names leading in that sector and this entire bull market right
in crypto has been a reflection of the equity markets and the equity markets have largely
been moving on the ai narrative which kind of got halted with that deep seek thing if you remember
that deep seek thing if you remember back in january that literally marked the fucking top
of like the indices man
yeah yeah we'll see i still have this uh i still have this summer rally in check just we'll see
what happens in um in april but yeah what you were describing there with all of these tickers
and ai and all this stuff bro the only difference is that you know liquidity conditions were different even like
locally in crypto everyone was just up after that uh election pump right and when you're up you just
have more capital right people were up like dude i was checking wallets all these uh ai trades of
you know trying to see which smart wallets are buying what coins and stuff
bro they were up tens of millions like per coin um on all these ai tickers and i had a bunch of
them saved bro i was looking at their wallets now and like a lot of them held all the way down and
stuff and didn't actually you know capitalize but anytime a new ticker would drop you would just see
like you know someone who was up millions on goat
just go bang, like 500k
out of his bag into this
new launch.
So if those conditions
come back
soon, or whenever
they do come back, when everyone
starts to be up in profit again,
that's when you get that crazy
sort of on- chain you know uh
runway for
did did john did i think donnie dropped out yeah yeah yeah yeah there he is man
hey man dude but you know i'll say this once again about eath btc like if that yeah but i
was just gonna say like if qt actually stops and eath btc actually does put in that bottom that ben cowen's talking about brother i will go
on base buy kta again buy some ray again and ride those things to like 300 mil i'm not going to be
a moon boy dude i think we're going to kill ourselves if like we set these targets these
ridiculous targets for an altcoin that we're enthusiastic about
and just say billions man i think we really shoot ourselves in the foot thinking that like
all these tokens are gonna hit a bill in a clean fashion because the corrections men
are often brutal and then it's like i don't know i shouldn't say i shouldn't really ramble on about
that but i'm still gonna be conservative donnie i'm sorry brother i'm still gonna be a conservative
a conservative nancy man um ah man yeah it depends though, because like what I was just saying before there is
when everyone's up in profit,
it makes it so easy for new coins
or something that pops up as hot
or something that a lot of people are pushing
to bring that liquidity or draw that liquidity into that coin
to actually pump it up to these stupid valuations, right?
So again, it's still going to
be like a rotation heavy meta but you know if liquidity conditions uh open up a lot more it'll
just be more of that to a higher degree right so i actually think a lot of coins can go to like
stupid high numbers just periodically like think of like a spotlight shining on like you know
certain sub narratives over and over again you're talking like a peanut right like it went to four billion out of nowhere that's what you mean right yeah
and then that money goes to let's say you know whatever narrative pops up after that so right
after that it was like all the ai stuff and if you check like you know some of these big wallets that
were rotating out of peanut they were buying you know all of these ai place you would literally
see peanut whales just entering just bang you know hundreds of thousands uh on these new launches
dude the fog whales dude that was huge signal like hagrid was using that for signal as well
when fog topped at like 700 mil in mid-december all of those guys like almost all of them they were all fucking
buying zerebro they were all buying uh what's the other shit far coin they were all buying far coin
um man i was looking at the discord the other day like dude we were fucking talking about far coin at like 30 mil 40 mil and i had no idea what the hell it was man um some dude
called vic literally giga made it buying far coin at like 100k market cap man um but yeah he he
walked off into the sunset man man. Shout out to Vic.
He lived within that AI sector, which at first was a landmine, dude.
AI was not easy in the beginning.
Like, when GOAT came out, you had a bunch of other tickers that, like,
everybody was collectively agreeing that, oh, when GOAT goes up,
all this shit has to go up.
And it's like
not exactly man not exactly but um donnie you also remember memes ai brother that i was just
about to mention that i fluked it bro with that one like Like, as you said, it wasn't easy figuring out, you know,
the start of this AI trend.
Like, when Goat came out, I saw it and stuff.
I never bought it.
I didn't understand it and all that.
And it already started, you know, going up to, like, 10, 20 million.
I was like, oh, fuck that.
Like, I've missed it.
And this thing, obviously, you know, the typical story
that everyone talks about with Goat just kept going higher
and higher and higher.
And then even after that, it had its first big correction or whatever.
And I think Memes AI had already launched.
And people were comparing it to Goat or something like that.
I didn't even look into it that much.
I think it was like 300k market cap.
I threw like, I even forgot how much.
Maybe it was like 1,000 or something into it.
And then one day, I think I was actually doing the first ever BB stream. it was like 4 a.m or 6 a.m by the end of the stream for me and i'm just checking my uh phone
and i just see this memes ai thing just absolutely ripping from my buy bro it was at like 10 15
million as i was wrapping up the stream and from there i caught the bug with these uh ai tickers
and that's actually that
side wallet that i had mentioned a few times which was had only like a couple of thousand in it
and ended up turning it into like a disgusting number literally went from memes ai full stack
rotate uh into what's it called mooding and then back into memes ai and then like hit a bunch of
other soul tickers and wrapped it up with Fred. It was insane.
It all happened in three weeks as well.
Yeah, compounding, man.
That's what this market has rewarded.
I think it's what the market's going to continue to reward.
I think a lot of people that survived 2021 quickly understood
that this whole wag me mentality is just a fraud and it's a fugazi.
You know, but I really hope at some point there is that there's going to be like.
Another chain that's just as that's just as efficient as soul.
Right. I think it comes probably in the next like year or so. that's just as efficient as Sol, right?
I think it comes probably in the next year or so.
I just don't know which one it's going to be.
I just don't know which one it's going to be.
Because there have been a lot of new L1s that have released,
but the market just does not care about them at this point.
But they don't care about it until they actually do right and that's usually when when like eath goes up like if you're bullish on other layer ones
outside of seoul you kind of want to be rooting for eath if you check on others BTC, Donnie, if you pull that up, you'll see that others BTC usually rallies hard whenever you have IWM outperform the indices, the mega cap tech indices.
And when you have that happen, you typically have like other all L1s going crazy.
We saw Injective going crazy in q4 of 23 um we also saw caspa pulling off a decent
number um say was going nuts also man that that time period was probably like one of the funnest
because you all not only did you have centralized exchange tokens pulling good numbers but you also
had on chain um doing well and i guess you can call like
last year in q4 an echo bubble of that we saw cardano doing good xrp doing good um and a few
of the other like boomer tokens from the 2017 cycle doing good too yeah you know you know what i want to say bro
this whole like whatever you've seen i was gonna ask your question you said i i you you asked me
do you know what i want to say and uh i i i was gonna say eth to 10k
brother so here's what i'm gonna say bro is up until this point right i'm going to keep
saying it you have seen bad liquidity conditions and you haven't seen the global liquidity cycle
confirm itself to you know expand one more time literally look at the dxy chart going back to 2022 it's been you know trading between
107 and 100 at the low for literally over two years right and global liquidity has literally
traded sideways all the way up until the election so and then you know it pulled right back down to that prior range high. So we still haven't had the DXY lose 100,
lose this entire two-year range
and actually confirm a downtrend,
which we've seen every other cycle,
which essentially, quote unquote,
starts a bull run for risk assets.
So we haven't had that yet. And hopefully we do get
it. I think we're really close. But when we do have that, whatever you've been used to this cycle,
you know, rotation, heavy meta, it still might stay around. It's going to be very different,
right? It's going to be very different in a positive way. So that's why i still can't rule out like 10k eth until um you know
we're in some sort of deep bear market and it's all played out and done for and it's been done
and you can look back you know a year um beyond that and look back and be like oh shit like we
actually had the whole liquidity cycle play out and you know eth didn't
go to 10k so you know we know these other central banks around the world are about to go into some
sort of like easing cycle if the dollar gives in uh as long as we get past this tariff stuff i think
the united states is headed to some sort of um easinging, whether it be through some rate cuts or whatnot,
I think that is coming.
And whether they get to QE or not,
probably they'll never, or in the next year or so,
get to some sort of explicit QE.
But we know that they have used not QE a bunch of times,
which I'm expecting more of that at some point.
I think until all of that plays out,
you can't rule out
over 10k
ETH because it's
such low market cap for if they
flip the switch on this thing and
implement all of these other new use cases
to give it this bid that
all these hedge funds are complaining about that it's overvalued.
You can't rule it out.
New use cases coming in.
Liquidity conditions completely changing
for the better. It's very easy to pump E345X.
And it's around 2K.
So I don't know. We'll see. It's hard to predict.
But we just haven't had it all play out yet
donnie i i think um if we actually do continue this downtrend i really think brother that we
bottom out uh maximum by september broadly i really really think so man i think like
dude when we just look at liquidity cycles and all that stuff and you know easing is coming
to some fashion you know that like this cycle if you still want to call it a cycle
has a huge amount of probability of actually extending, especially when you think, like, the Doge stimulus checks for one.
And, of course, like, Powell's term ends next year in May.
And so I think to myself, right, like,
are we going to be at ripping new highs or coming out of a bear market
and i think it's the former not the latter to be frank with you brother i think like by next year
in may the s&p is going to be above 65 000 and that's like not even huge that's like
yeah that's like a six percent seven percent six thousand five hundred yeah yeah
yeah and that's like five percent to seven percent higher uh than our year-to-date high and that's
not even calling for much to be honest that's accounting for a slowdown in growth that's
accounting for some more damage to be done that's like my base case man i don't think powell is leaving
office without the s&p being at roaring all-time highs and my base case is like 6500 uh for next
may and 13 months goes by very very very fast man um 13 months ago you know b was at 74K, and everyone was euphoric, right?
Because on-chain was going crazy, WIF was trading at $5, and PumpFun hadn't even launched yet.
That's another thing too, right?
I think give it another month, man, and I think on- chain will come back um the way the way it was
back in like september i think even if it's just for like an echo an echo bubble bounce but um i
think if we just pay attention to sentiment i think like we can really kick ourselves in the
foot because if sentiment matters to the downside then why doesn't it matter to the upside also right like everyone and their mother was bullish throughout october does it mean like
oh everyone's bullish that means it's time to short like no dude you would have gotten your
teeth kicked in so the same rule applies when it's the downside like oh we can't go down because the fear and greed index is at like 20. that doesn't
mean anything same thing with like rsi rsi was the lowest it's ever been since ftx or whatever
back during that crash in february and we're trading lower now than where we were back then
um but that's what i have to say about that man i'm kind of going off topic here
i think we'll get our answer by um by may if we get this uh summer rally or not
i just think that's the most offside situation to unfold right fucking everyone every hedge fund
manager or whatever all these dudes
they've all hedged
and you know blasted gold
this entire time so
we'll see what happens over April and stuff
it can change really quickly and like
a lot of liquidity can be drawn
from a bunch of different things
that are not QE so
you know
there's a lot of capital in markets right if
you get the right conditions people are going to flood into crypto so i don't know we'll see we'll
see we're getting very close i saw this statistic also early on the timeline before i started spaces
before I started Spaces, talking about how, like,
the bulk of the 2017 move didn't actually start
until after Trump's, like, 200th day in office or whatever.
Late April.
Yeah, yeah.
And, like, we're barely at 90 or something like that.
But, man, this, the tariff stuff, I think,
I think, like, people should be grateful that, like that they're trying to get that stuff out of the way as quickly as possible.
Rather than try to pump the market during Trump's first year and then go through a horrible midterm year, just rip the Band-Aid off, burn everything down, and then have three years of up only.
burn everything down and then have three years of up only as you said today right what's coming is
a boom economy or whatever that is I just think like too many people are expecting that to happen
imminently rather than being patient I think it's gonna happen sooner bro I can't I can't get it out
of my head bro i don't know everything
is just pointing to may and june for me unless you know unless something does a u-turn uh mainly
this tariff stuff right if this turns into a trade war then you can completely wipe out my
scenario of may and june but if that if we get past that i think it's a wrap yo donnie did you
see china japan and south korea working together on
implementing retaliatory tariffs against the united states to get those three countries to
band together takes like armageddon like armageddon i mean you guys if you understand history japan
and korea hate one another and china and japan hate or chinese
people hate japanese people it just is what it is um which is crazy man but so you think may or june
for the start of a rally yeah i would say i would say may may the start and then like that ends up
being the bulk of the move you know like if prices are lower the
highest percentage is from like the low point to you know the first sort of rally i think that's
going to be like the bulk of the move and then june potentially starts to overheat yeah and like okay
so let me give you the stat i i tweeted about this but so of all the wait before you before you go on let me ask you something
about um what you just said with uh getting those countries to band together would you say that it's
impressive that the market um is you know digesting it pretty well it's not really reacting to all of
the stuff yeah i think there's asymmetric risk to the upside i think the short trade is overcrowded and it would like how
how heavily positioned people are positioned to the downside at this point. It would take like an
act of God, in my opinion, to really send it lower. And what I mean by an act of God is Trump
coming out and saying like 50% tariffs on everybody at this point. I think it would take a lot to
really shock the market at this point to the think it would take a lot to really shock the
market at this point to the downside, but it would not take much. Like if we can scoot by today or
by this week with what we have like PMI this morning, we have Liberation Day tomorrow,
we have ISMs as well. Like we have a ton of stuff this week and if we can scoot by this week in my opinion it
sets up a really nice window in my opinion for some form of recovery but a prolonged recovery
to new all-time highs i think takes much much longer than like most people are expecting
yeah yeah i think i think you'll have a slow build up because all of this economic data in
april is like pretty important right uh the inflation mainly for me right that's going to
probably unlock like a fed pivot if it's super cold um but you know labor and ism hold up you
know how it is like or decently strong or not too weak then i think yeah that's going to unlock the
fed uh pivot into more rate cuts so you know that's going to unlock the Fed pivot into more rate cuts.
So, you know, that's going to take time to unfold.
So I think you could get a buildup over April and then at the Fed meeting on the confirmation, if they give it, that's where you squeeze all of the liquidity above 99.5K on BTC.
Yeah, I mean, I, yeah, I like it. And like something that I talked about too, was that
over all the instances, or I posted about it, all the instances of the SPX dropping more than 10%
since 08, the 16 occurrences that have happened, only twice have we recovered the entire drawdown in 30 days from the bottom.
And both those times were in 08.
So the average amount of time that it has taken to fully recover a move like that,
since 08, from all these instances, since 08, takes 90 days.
You know, this thought that people have, in my opinion, the markets of some super fast recovery,
because even if we get, let's say, super good data, or not super good data, but decent data,
we see a Fed pivot and we see things start to fall in line, you still have to take into account that the market is still very uncertain from the like political risk standpoint from like a policy standpoint like
even if we scoot by and things you know kind of start adding up and falling in line it's still
going to take a while for the market to get to the point where they're like okay like things are
point where they're like okay like things are not as bad as you know what we're expecting
yeah it's just um for for crypto especially some of the other scenarios we've put up on here
the main one was october of 2023 which i've been kind of comparing it to again like the market
uncertain risks of recession waiting for economic data to front run whatever fed meetings are coming
btc broke the high 55 days before the smp which is actually two months so i'm not even like
obviously i want the smp to bottom and you know form some sort of base and build an uptrend but
ultimately i think as those data points come out uh bitcoin is just going to price it in much quicker. Let me ask you this. Do you
think we sweep those lows at like 76K? Because I mean, when we had that move down to 76K on BTC,
we cleared out the order books. And the whole grind up from those lows has been just a liquid
and a liquid mess. And I personally think that that
liquidity is complacent liquidity. And I think there was no strong demand and no real strong
buy, like buyers that stepped into the market at those lows. And it was just like this garbage,
garbage liquid price action do you think we go and rate those lows i think my base case right now
a liquid price action. Do you think we go and rate those lows?
is that 79k liquidity which we left um there's a liquidity point right after that low we you know
bounced back up came back to 79 and ever since then we've started this like uh slow little local
uptrend just building liquidity no real clean demand zones locally in there. So ever since we
came up to 88K, that was kind of where I was like, okay, this is going to set up some sort of three
tap to come clean up the 79K liquidity. And you've got that range low at, what is it? 78K,
then you went to 76,600. And now you've got that liquidity point at 79K. So you come sweep that
right before these tariffs. And then, like you said, you've got IS liquidity point at 79k. So you come sweep that right before these tariffs. And
then, like you said, you've got ISM on the third, employment data on the fourth, which if it comes
in decent, I feel like prices should hold up there. But it's kind of like a coin flip. It's
either that or 73, 600, take out the low and come to that demand zone below it. Yeah. I like, I think if you result, like if we don't
sweep those lows before we head higher, I, I just think that they're asking, you know, for it to,
in my, in my opinion, in my view is like, if we leave those lows intact and we don't take those,
that it's probably leaning, I'm leaning more towards it being a complacency shoulder rather than anything.
And it's just, if rather if we take those lows, I think you could easily, you know,
you could target all time highs, but there's just too much going on in equity land right
now to ignore it.
You know, a lot of people talk Btc and eth with no confluence of equity
markets yeah yeah we got to look at nvidia man that's like dude nvidia looks like garbage and
it is the most levered there's more leverage in nvidia than anything else in the market and if you get below
like 90 on nvidia um that low that like wick low um it things will start to unwind and get pretty
pretty nasty um but i think we're like decently okay until then, but you really don't like, you really like
at the worst want to hold like 95 bucks, like retest that previous all time high, come down,
you know, get some form of accumulation below a hundred dollars.
Because if that leverage starts to unwind in the markets, this entire market, this entire bull run has completely been centered around the
appreciation of NVIDIA and like the whole AI HPC trade. Like that's the entire market has been
centered around that has largely carried the markets up until now. And if you start to see
that unwind, there's nothing else that's supporting the market. Like you think gold's going to support the market? Like you think like what else? I mean, Costco, you know,
a lot of the, a lot of the charts are still recovering and still have not made new all
time highs from their COVID highs. You know, I called them, I was talking with Dorito about it,
of it. They're like the crash and burn charts. They did the Burj Khalifa pattern, super large
but they're like the crash and burn charts. You know, they did the Burj Khalifa pattern,
blow off tops with huge distributions and like 21 to 22. And then they came back down. They're
starting to base out now. And some of them are looking really good with some form of accumulation,
but there's no like capital or liquidity in those charts that is going to like prop up any of these
indices. Right. So you just got to view, like understand that, that, okay.
If like NVIDIA starts to shit the bed guys, you know, it's,
it's things get scary quick.
Yeah.
I was just going to ask.
Go ahead.
I was just going ask what i'll go ahead by no i was just gonna say like the good thing is that
a trump bear market only lasts a couple of months that's uh that's a good thing right
like when did he step in office so so so so look so look so look look during 2017 all the way
through late 2020 um I'm talking indices,
right?
Endices.
Most of the drawdown in indices, they're usually cleared up within four to five months, right?
2018, you still had the NASDAQ making all-time highs in the summer of 2018, right?
And then the NASDAQ actually had a rebrand.
The NASDAQ actually had a rebrand.
So they went from the NASDAQ 100 and they rebranded to the McNASDAQ, right?
So within four months, a lot of the people that bought into the NASDAQ ETF, they were all mailed in a McDonald's application.
And it says, welcome to the McNASDAQ Corporation, right?
And even in 2020, right?
Like, we were back at the highs within 100 days.
So what I'm saying is, like, a Trump bear market is more merciful than a Biden bear market.
A Trump bear market happens quick and swiftly and after dude there's look look there's no one that
you want to have on your side from a bottom than trump that i will say from a bottom bro no one
has stimulated the markets from the bottom outside of obama maybe um from the lows, right? In early 2019, Trump forced Powell to do QE.
Same thing with 2020.
You guys remember Steve Mnuchin?
You guys remember Kashkari?
They were all on the news saying,
we're going to pump this market as much as we possibly can,
and we're going to print money, right?
Now, hopefully that doesn't happen i really
hope we don't have covet 2.0 you know type of stimulus happen because if that happens i promise
you bro a full day's worth of wage is going to equate to a loaf of bread study the my republic
bro study i think that's next word too yeah
I think that's next cycle.
Next cycle?
Yeah, I think large-scale QE,
potentially after this cycle.
I don't think they're going to do COVID
and then another line of that back-to-back.
Just makes no sense to me,
without going too deep into that.
Yo, Donnie, what were you gonna ask
ah ah what's your what's your sort of like base case then for crypto over the next uh quarter
this one q2 over the next quarter i personally am leaning i mean a lot of people are gonna hate me but i don't think we we make new all time highs for Q2. I think that you probably see some form of what we did last year, where we enter some
form of ranging environment before. Because you got to understand too, when the markets are
spooked like this, and there's a lot of uncertainty, Our risk on environment, right? And our baby does not
thrive. And so we need certainty to step back into the market. And that's like what I was discussing
was it takes a lot of time for the market to get back to the point and get back to the stance to
where it's like, okay, like things are fine. I don't know if you guys remember like 2022,
but like the inflation woes and it took like i think it took like two or three like
prints of inflation coming down before the market was like oh okay like you know we're finally
starting to come down um and things started to like lift a little bit um i think crypto you know
i i don't even want to guess what ethereum going to do. I mean, you can't even,
I mean, you can't even bet on the thing at this point, but like Bitcoin in general,
we probably see some complacency shoulder. I'm in the same camp, you know, a little bit,
you know, sweep some highs up above. If we don't run that 76 K WIC, and at some point I am expecting us to come back down to probably like 74, 75 K and want to see like real buyers and real demand step into the market and step into Bitcoin and crypto specifically and show that people are like wanting and willing to bid at those levels.
Because this most recent low, that's not what we saw.
And that's not indicative of a bottom um but in the meantime
like if equities rally then bitcoin in my opinion rallies to some resemblance and whether that's
you know the highs at like 91k or whether that's all the way up to 100k is to to be determined but it for me let me ask you this man not interrupt but like you know
if i'm looking at the indices it reminds me a lot of 2022 and you had these like insane technical
levels and during this downturn we've bounced from all these technical levels we bounced at 57 now we're bouncing at sub 55
and i mean the bounces in 2022 were insane but you know i truly think if it weren't for the
aggressive rate hiking cycle that we went through in 2022 and with cpi going hot i genuinely think
we would have bottomed when we crashed in June of 2022.
So I'm looking at the indices now and it's like, would you say that a lot of the downside
price action is probably going to be done by June or September at the latest?
Because we don't really have this looming dark head of macro staring us down, right?
This tariff situation, you know, we've seen it play
out before. It happens within four to five months, right? CPI and all that crap, we're just going to
have to deal with 2%-ish inflation year over year for the rest of eternity, right? That's just a
fact. We're probably never going to get like, you you know sub one percent year over year inflation in the u.s and i mean there's not really much
bad macro data outside of that right and as far as unemployment goes i think a lot of those numbers just come from like the government reduction in spending and taking
away like all these government jobs where it's like, hey, let's pay someone $7,000 a month just
to like, you know, upkeep a website or something like that. A website from a grant that we gave that has done nothing as far as productivity goes, right?
Like, they're getting rid of all these government jobs, which are no different than those, like, weird tech jobs that were super hot in 2021 and 2022.
Remember those day in the life of a tech worker kind of videos, you know?
That's kind of what's been going on the government
in 2023 2024 right like jobs were given to people to update websites um from like funding programs
to give away to give away money to support some cause in some other country. Right. So I mean, what are your thoughts on
that brother? Donnie, feel free to chime in also. Yeah, I'm, I personally, so a lot of people are
looking at 2022. Um, and if looked at where entering into 2022, if people
remember the Fed was like, oh, it's like, it's not going to be transitory, right? We're not going to
raise rates past, I think it was like 150 basis points or something like that. Or maybe it's like
200 basis points, which is the reason why Silicon Valley blew up. But inflation just steadily became worse and worse and worse, where if you look at it in the framework
as of now to where people are like, oh, we're not going to have gross slowdowns. Tariffs are bullish.
It brings in revenue for the United States. And then if you start to see,
you know, consumer discretionary sector, for instance, like, you know, like your Nikes and
shit and like Lululemon and shit like that, start to report, you know, really bad earnings and,
you know, start to revise down and revise down and down and down, you know, and like,
then they can barely be, and then they're missing. Then sure. You get like a 2022 ask, you know, kind of price action behavior. But in my
opinion, what I'm kind of more looking at is the 2018, uh, beginning of 2018 style, uh, price
action behavior, you know, where we, at the beginning of 2018, we had our first sell-off,
which was 11%. And if you look at the sell- 2018, we had our first sell-off, which was 11%.
And if you look at the sell-off that we've had right now to the lows was 11%. You see some form
of rally, but not a full recovery of the, of the sell-off. You get, you know, one more stab down
back to the previous levels that we initially sold off to, and then probably some slow grind up higher back to all-time highs. And it's indicative,
you know, and I'm expecting the SPX specifically to be indicative of kind of a double top. Like,
that's what I'm watching for. I'm looking for a compression of volatility after, you know,
probably around, you know, end of June to beginning of July leading into the end
of the year. And you likely see the SPX and his indices kind of grind higher back towards their
all time highs. And if that is the leg that we get for that is the window that we get for altcoins
and, you know, Ethereum and everything to have its like leg up, then so be it. But I am expecting sometime
at the beginning of next year to probably have some probably larger correction in the market.
I know that a lot of people are expecting Trump to, because of what he did his last candidacy or his last presidency or candidacy, his last four years, you know, the markets, they did love him and they did very, very well.
But you also have to understand what he stepped into. are, you know, largely the data too that's coming out and what they use as, you know,
leading or lagging indicators is largely been filtered out to the point to where they only
see what they want to see. And it was very apparent too, like with inflation, they were
saying inflation's at 9%.
As you know, and as probably everybody here knows, inflation was probably 20%.
You go to the grocery store and eggs, I mean, well, not eggs, because eggs, there was a
bird flu, but certain goods and your cost of living had gone up substantially.
And so he's trying to fix that by implementing deflationary measures.
He is shown too, that he's sticking to his policy and he's sticking to his guns and what he said he
was going to do, as we all know. And if that means the equity markets not doing well, then
he's basically said, so be it. He doesn't really care because he knows if he were to not take action
in the policy that he's implementing now
that we probably would end up sometime this year
having some major, major, major systemic issues.
And he's trying to get us into a position
to where that doesn't
happen and where they can try to actually start to fix things. But whether or not they do is,
is, you know, up for debate. And it's kind of a wait and see moment. But like I said,
I think that, you know, there's a good potential that the lows are in. I think there's a good potential that the markets overprice the fears with tariffs
and if we do see a if we do see you know tariff impacts come to fruition it's going to take time
like it's not an immediate oh the markets you know immediately you know earnings and growth slows
down immediately and is in a substantial matter no it, it takes a lot, a long time for that
to actually find its way into the market and for, you know, it to affect the consumer because the
auto tariffs, nobody gives a shit about, because if you go and you look, everybody's like, oh my
God, you know, I can only buy American cars and American cars are pieces of garbage, whatever.
I can only buy American cars and American cars are pieces of garbage, whatever. Sure. But go look
at how many foreign brands build cars in America. You know, Toyota, Kia, Volkswagen, like all these
names build cars in America that they will have tariffs on. And so does that actually impact the
consumer in the way the markets are thinking right now or in the manner in which they are currently thinking?
I don't know.
I don't think so.
And I do think that the short trade, like I said, is overcrowded.
People are just like expecting the worst.
The timeline is nuts right now.
The shit that I'm hearing from people is outlandish, in my opinion.
And usually you don't see with big systemic event, big systemic risk events like COVID,
like 08, like 2000, like the 80s, you don't see the market positioning in accordance for that. And then it happens.
Like if you go look at vol, if you go look at the VIX, you go look at volatility and how it behaves.
Usually it's out of the blue. You genuinely, generally, you generally don't have people
have the ability to go position short, to go position in hedges, to go position in long vol before the events even happen.
Usually it happens like that.
And then everybody's caught off guard.
And then you have your big systemic event.
Because at this rate, if something were to happen, it's going to be a slow, systematic grind down.
And you aren't going to have that like large blowout event because everybody's
already positioned for it that's what we're seeing right now that's why i think you get some form of
minimum of complacency shoulder um and some window of strength over the next 30 to 45 days
we saw that in 2022 you remember that summer rally that summer rally was insane dude
eath went up like 150 150 um netflix stock did pretty well also some tech stocks bottomed during during that time. I remember that. But yeah, 2018
was something
else, but
I see Matt in the crowd.
I'll go ahead and
I'll add
him.
Matt, what's up?
You're off mute, Matt. If you're trying to say something
here we go
it's windy here
by the way guys
do not have Chipotle
Chipotle is cooked
it's done
it's disgusting
it's just nasty slop
it's horrible.
20 bucks, bruv.
For a double chicken burrito.
And one of those poppy sodas.
An orange poppy.
I had an orange poppy soda with a double chicken burrito.
And I don't really like eating rice at other places because no one knows how to cook rice like I do. I like to wash my rice. I like to triple wash my
rice actually with bottled water, not tap water because I'm not a savage. I'm not a caveman.
because I'm not a savage. I'm not a caveman. So I don't really trust rice from people that I can't
see them cook rice. So I never get rice at Chipotle. And more often than not, people get
food poisoning, not because of the meat, but because of the extra ingredients. The rice,
do they use clean water to wash the rice?
The lettuce, do they actually wash the lettuce? Same thing with the tomatoes. Do they take off
the seeds? Are the tomatoes fresh, right? The cheese slices, is the cheese expired?
How long was it refrigerated for? It's more often than not the other ingredients. So I had double chicken,
beans, um, and the salsa tomato thing with some cheese. And I only finished like three quarters
of it. And I had it with an orange poppy prebiotic soda. And it was like almost $20. And it was like
and it was like almost 20 and it was like horrific to be to be frank um
yeah i love america though sometimes right but matt yo yo what's up well uh yeah i i hear you on
that i mean chipotle in this economy i mean it's it's not the same beast that it was
In like
I think look I genuinely
Think after
Obama's first term something
Happened with the food
Something happened with
The food bro
You know it's it's
You know
Their
Their business model is mass scale unfortunately you
lose um quality at a certain point just do yeah it happens with everything man honestly it really
happens um with every product and you know what's crazy there's a lot of retail stores
because i know prometheus was talking about like growth slowing down and all that stuff and economic data there's a lot of like
big chain stores that are actually going out of business this year uh forever 21 is shutting down
its doors macy's is closing down hundreds of locations party city shut down burger king is
actually shutting down a ton of its locations down as well um
yeah i think that's the top of my head that's what i can recall but macy's is a huge hit a lot
of those people um are gonna be left with like no job uh party city was another big one too
but what's up man hey yeah well we finally got here I heard some
of the comments as I was joining but we finally got to this week and it's living up to the hype
absolutely living up to the hype I think it's I think it's really clear though I think we have
a very clear setup I posted this earlier today you know after you know
um looking at a lot of different data and listening to all various different opinions
over the weekend and while sitting on a beach and just trying to figure out um um the state of play
but i think it's i think the situation is still what we said last week,
still what we said two weeks ago. So still what we said last month, it really comes down to
is, is this tariff talk? Is it overblown? Has all the worst details of tariff day already been
of tariff day already been um floated out in the system you know the 25 on car imports the
you know the the the canada's tariffs china's tariffs mexico's tariffs etc etc has all the
worst detail already been floated out in drips and drabs and then tomorrow excuse me then wednesday
it's just confirming what the market already knows. If that's the case, that's a huge nothing burger.
And I expect Bitcoin to go up with a quickness.
I really do.
I think we're down here in the morning if it looks like it. like, you know, all this overcomplication. But I really think it comes down to if Trump's tariffs day, if the worst of the news is already
out there and he just confirms what the market has already been freaking out about, then
great.
That's perfect.
It's a nothing burger.
And I expect the support holds and Bitcoin rises.
If he starts talking about, and here's my new 30% tariff on greater Europe.
And then here's one for South America.
And even one for Chile, excuse me, even a special one for the country of Chad in Africa.
Because, you know, XYZ reason.
because, you know, XYZ reason, that's the worst case scenario.
That's the worst case scenario.
We don't want, the market doesn't want to hear any new countries,
any new details, any new unexpected continents taking a wild stray on tariffs.
So, yeah, go ahead.
Or a giga tariff on Chad, right?
I see what you did there.
Yeah.
I mean, yeah, yeah.
Think what happens. Right, exactly. Think what happens to XYZ meme coin if you just. right i see what you did there yeah i mean yeah yeah think what happened right exactly think what
happens to xyz meme coin if you just i crack myself up bro if you accidentally share a name
with something that's also getting a tariff like can you can can meme coins go to negative numbers
i don't know like you can always move the decimal decimal point i guess but i don't know
yeah but but that's the thing so So that's it. So it's,
it's really as simple as that. Like, um, I, I think, I think if you, you know, if you think
this bull market isn't over and I don't, if you think that 2025 has better days and weeks and
months to come, which I do, then you buy here at support and you don't worry about it.
Even if you are super scared, super worried, but are still leaning bullish, well then fine,
you would buy as close to 80K as you can. And then if you want to put yourself like a trailing
stop loss, like a negative 3% or a negative 5%, you do you. But this is the setups that you live for
that we saw over and over in 2023 and 2024.
You buy as close to major support as possible
and protect yourself on the downside.
I'm not out here telling you to long XYZ altcoin,
but no one was sad longing Bitcoin at 25K in 2023.
No one was sad about longing at $25k in 2023. No one was sad about longing Bitcoin at $50k in 2024.
And I have a feeling that we might just be staring at the same setup three years in a row.
I agree with you, Matt.
It's no range until September.
No range until September bro
No range until September, bro.
Nope
Nope.
Nah nah I like
I like Donnie's
Fool me once fool me twice
Summer rally
I like that because we've already hit our consolidation
Early
I think we're more than halfway through our consolidation
I think maybe you could
You could see chop and consolidation
Through April into May
But then a June or July rally
that surprises everyone.
Yeah.
If the tariffs are digestible, simple as that, we can then move forward.
And I think this has a high likelihood of playing out.
Plus, dude, literally, you have to realize that the US has to roll over that debt, right?
And we know that even Truflation, I was looking at it today, it's still below 2%, right? Going into the second month running now, it's been like that for like five
weeks in a row. So, you know, low inflation prints coming up, labor and ISM stay solid or a little
bit weak. I would think that ISM actually ends up being solid. The Fed confirms, you know, some sort
of easing path or, you know, the US-year actually rolls over going into that FOMC meeting in May.
If it goes near or below 4%, you can basically lock in a rate cut right there.
And if this data holds up, dude, the markets are going to rally super hard right there.
So I would say your actual cycle top risk is right there.
Like July, August, September, big cycle top risk, depending how high you go.
Yep.
Before fall.
Yep.
I'm with you there.
Yep.
But because think about it, everybody's offside.
This debt needs to be rolled over.
Truflation's showing low inflation, but actually the implementation of the tariffs is still
not in.
Therefore, give it six months and, you know, the effects the tariffs is still not in. Therefore, give it
six months and the effects might actually start to show in the data. Plus, you've started easing.
That's double inflation right there. So your Q4 actually looks like the highest cycle top risk
if you're measuring inflation or all this stuff overheating. So I don't know how you can just
safely be like, oh, I'm just going to wait till Q4 or Q3 when things get better.
And that's my, you know, that's the most crowded opinion right now is Q4 is 100% bullish. But right
now, I'm just going to hedge against this recession. You know, so get past these tariffs
and get past April. I just don't see how you don't rally over May, June, July.
I just don't see how you don't rally over May, June, July.
I really hope that's the case, and I hope that I'm wrong, brother.
Yeah.
I really hope that I'm wrong.
It's to be confirmed, so we'll see.
But it's a pretty good setup because everyone's offside.
They really are.
Usually it's lonely being the bull, and it feels like that again come on wabi how many
times are you going to do this how many how many times when like you know there's like i can count
the number of bulls on one hand and and that's not the right trade to be in one we've done this
several years in a row don't let's make it a third
i guess but whatever you know yeah i mean so this liberation crap uh is on wednesday right yeah yep
all right man so here's what i'm going to do. I'm going to buy some stuff tomorrow,
and if I lose money on it,
I'm going to ask for a refund.
There's only one coin that you should be buying right now, Wabi.
If you say Pepe, bro, I'm jumping off a bridge.
No, no, it's on base.
I know what you're going to say.
Bro.
I know what you're going to say.
If BTC breaks 99.5K, remember this day, Wabi,
that coin's going to be trading near or above 500 million
by the end of this rally.
Jeez, bro.
All right. Yeah. Excitement. Excitement nonetheless. Yeah. geez bro all right yeah excitement excitement nonetheless yeah i almost i almost don't even
care what the friday labor report says because once again to donnie's point he's right that you
know tariffs haven't they've barely been announced let alone implemented So I think it would be a real surprise to see any companies
mass firing and laying off people for no reason. Put yourself in the CEO's shoes. One day tariffs
are on, next day they're off. One day, oh, you're getting slammed with a massive negative 20%
tariff on your revenue. And then the day after, you're like, oh, okay, nevermind, we're exempted.
So those companies probably haven't done anything.
They're waiting to see what Wednesday holds as well before they make any major moves.
So yeah, I have a feeling that Friday's labor report, which a lot of bears are going to
say, oh, you can't buy anything Wednesday, even though the Trump tariffs were a nothing
burger.
You can't get into the market yet. Wait to see what unemployment says. Wait till you see what
the labor market says. But we already know that companies haven't started mass layoffs in January.
They didn't start in February. They didn't start in March. I mean, the March report. So
it's probably going to be the same thing Friday. So I really think everything just to put a bow on it.
I think,
I think this comes down to Wednesday,
you know,
root,
do the rain dance root for a nothing burger,
whatever you gotta,
whatever gods you pray do.
And if it comes,
I think the TC goes a lot higher.
Matt,
I saw this thing.
You might know about it.
I need to actually look into it more,
but it was something about how there's like a chart basically
that shows
it shows
how much credit
businesses are able to get
at the moment like is it easy to get credit
is it hard to get credit and it's become
super easy to get credit according
to that chart which is like a really
good indicator for you know when
essentially risk markets start to pick up because businesses can get that credit things start
flowing ism picks up do you know anything about that uh i'm sure you mean something more specific
than just liquidity but it's not liquidity right um i'll have to find it. Yeah. If Joe was here, you would know.
Yeah, exactly.
CEOs and owners of companies and stuff
are basically reporting that it's much easier
to get credit now than it was last year,
which is, you know, that's massive.
That's kind of giving it away here
about that April ends up being more bullish
for economic data than people are expecting.
Yeah, I mean, I don't want to look too far forward yet,
but earning season is just around the corner.
And again, we've been scaring ourselves senseless over who, what, when, where,
tariffs, this, tariffs, that, But they haven't truly been implemented yet.
Nothing's truly taken effect yet.
So, you know, play that forward.
Are you going to see it in a bunch of misses and bad earnings?
No, probably not.
People are way offside on how much money these companies are making.
So, you know, we're going into, you know into let's play this out.
What if tariffs are
a nothing burger?
Damn, he was about to cook.
What if
what if
you cut out for a bit?
My bad. Yeah, I just got a phone call.
Okay, so let's just play it out real quick what if
tariffs are nothing burger and then what if the labor market says uh jobs and economy and
unemployment is still just fine on friday then right after that you start to hit into earning
season or what do you what do you think companies are going to tell you well we didn't lay anyone
off and we were making all the money we projected to because tariffs never really actually got implemented yet. There's going to be beats all
over the place, double beats. Oh, we were sandbagging our expectations, telling you all
about recession and tariff, but what do you know? It didn't actually happen. So we beat expectations
by 5, 10, 15, 20% and everyone's offside so yeah I'm I'm bullish
let's fucking go Matt let's go
there's nothing like seeing off people offside hedge funds just get absolutely
by an upside candle yeah absolutely
if anyone wants to come up and chat feel free to do so if not i think i can go ahead and uh
wrap up today's stream so guys if you've been tuning in over the last two hours and you've
enjoyed the conversation and want to come up give your thoughts on the market or ask any questions, feel free to do so.
More so if you want to come up and talk markets.
I feel like basic Q&A, whether it's between a host and the panel or just like people in the audience and the host, I find it quite boring, right?
Like if it's just questions and questions and questions i feel
like people don't really care about that they just want to have like raw unedited free form discussion
right so if you want to come up give your thoughts on the market feel free to do so i'll bring you
right on up whether it's equities whether it's crypto um yeah, feel free to do so. And I'll bring you right on up. So we got
two people. All right, we're going to keep it to these two people. Then we're going to go ahead
and wrap up. But Matt, Donnie, is there anything else that you guys want to bring up before I
let these other two speakers talk their book?
let these other two speakers talk their book no okay all right i'll pass it over first uh to ski
ski what's up hey what's up guys uh yeah i mean i can talk my book in a minute i just had a quick
question for matt like you know if you're assigning a probability to the Wednesday Liberation Day being a nothing
burger, like what would you assign
that probability and like what's
like play out the inverse, like what if he just
comes in and smacks
the table and it's like
Terrence for everyone, Oprah style
I see you dropped out on my
I mean I guess like talking my book like like real quick, like, look, I think we're range
bound, maybe coming to an end of the range on BTC for a little bit.
But I mean, I think I'm back.
Right now, like, you know, I hold spot and gold storage and I'm doing nothing with it.
But then I hold a bunch of I didbit which I'm just actively selling weekly call
options on it to finance a long-term way way out of the money calls so like I sell weeklies close
to or above the money and then I'm buying like 120 call options for Jan of 26. Do I think we go to 120
on iBit? I don't know.
But like right now they're like
25 cents and I think I can easily
double if not triple my money on that.
I think
I heard most of the question there. Can you hear me now?
Yeah, I got you.
Great. Yeah.
So if I had to guess,'d say 60 40 um uh all the all the news is already
out there um so you know 60 40 it's uh nothing burger but we know trump like he's a showman
at heart you know he likes he likes a news event he likes to make news he likes everyone tuning in
so you got to expect and that's likes everyone tuning in so you got to expect
and that's why i say 60 40 you got to expect there's some details or maybe some countries
plural that he hasn't announced yet um i was paying a lot of time even though i've been
traveling and on a spring break vacay i've been paying attention a lot over the weekend to news
of like oh he seems to be really pissed at putin right now in russia maybe that's
it maybe it's something like this so i'll play a quick scenario maybe the country he hasn't
announced yet he announces like and we're slamming russia with a i don't know a 25 tariff on yada
yada whatever that would be really bullish because let's face it we don't buy anything or trade with
russia much at all anyway right now so if that's the big news catalyst that he drops and everyone, all the talking heads and all the news anchors have to react to it, what do markets think?
What do markets do?
They would probably rapidly rise because, great, that doesn't hurt anyone's back.
Okay, that was it.
That was the big catalyst.
Buy everything. catalyst uh you know buy everything all right i think uh the other guy had dropped down man
but uh i think what we don't want to hear is like just some sort of blanket tariff on
europe you know that's a huge trading partner i don't even know what like
you know just something that is going to cause a lot of confusion where people like well who's
what does he mean by europe is that is that just great britain and france is he talking
is he talking poland too Poland too? Just something so
sweeping and ambiguous that everyone has no time to react. And the first thing people do is like,
we'll sell it all today and we'll figure out the details tomorrow. That's what you don't want to
see. That's what we don't want to hear. We don't want countries or continents making news Wednesday that we hadn't already thought of or digested.
There's one more guy requesting to speak.
He was up here before.
for ancestral simulation.
Ancestral simulation.
Ancestral, what's up, man?
Hi, thanks for letting me ask this question.
This is more about BTC.
I look at BTC a lot through the ratio with gold and SPY.
And if you look at those ratios, gold seems to have bottomed, but SPY looks like
there's more downside on the ratio. I was wondering, do you guys look at that and how do you
look at that data? And do you think we got lower to go on the ratio between BTC and SPY?
Yeah.
If Matt could answer this, that'd be great.
Oh, I'd love to hear Donnie's thoughts on that too.
No, I don't usually denom... And I'm not sure which way I would denominate it.
Bitcoin denominated in SPY or SPY denominated in Bitcoin.
But I usually don't compare those.
I'm with you, though, on comparing the uh bitcoin to gold pair that's cleaner that's a lot easier you know
uh 15 year old incredible asset compared to a multi-thousand year old asset beautiful but spy
it's so dirty it's so noisy you know you've got uh when when the mag 7 or even you could argue that
the uh top 10 are uh the bulk of all spy it's so it's it's it's really over complicating it so um
yeah great uh what do you think about btc gold then do you think we bottomed or there's more downside on BTC?
No, no, I think we did. I think we bottomed. So I was posting about this earlier in the morning.
Gold to me is about to hit a major resistance. Call it between 3200 and 3300. taking the fib from um uh uh the 2000 uh excuse me whether you're taking fib from 21 to 2023
or the fib from the drawdown of uh of a decade ago from um what was that 2012 all the way down
to 2014 2015 like my long story short um a lot of different fibs on gold point at 3200 to 3300
as a major resistance level so like there's going to be a lot of uh there's going to be a lot of
gold traders that are like great good enough 50 percent and uh plus 50 percent in less than 500
days that's amazing for gold sell it sell, sell it all. We're cashing
this in, we're locking it in and they will. And then the other, if you're really in the weed on
gold, then you also have been hearing about and are familiar with this London gold to New York
arb trade where people are buying up gold out of
London on the spot market and then
literally physically shipping it
to New York just to sell it there
because they could make
I don't even know how much it was. Was it
50 bips? But the point is that
gold was trading for more
in New York than it was at London
if you could just get it there cheap enough
and all ARB trades like that, they eventually run out. They eventually equal out and balance.
So that's also, you know, just because CNBC is reporting on it alone, that probably means that
trade is drying up quick if it's not already. So for a lot of different reasons, I think gold has its last 5%.
It even broke...
Yeah, I posted about it earlier this morning.
I just saw that DM, whoever asked me.
But it broke out to the upside of its ascending channel.
So it's literally having a little mini blow off top,
if you can believe it,
with an asset class that's over 10 trillion in market cap.
So no, I wouldn't touch gold at all.
I think gold to BTC is bottoming. If I had a gold position, I'd be flipping it to BTC right here, right now. That being said, if we have a bear market, if we have a recession,
no asset price is immune in the drawdown so um gold will take a
hit too so for yeah a lot of different reasons i would not be buying gold here yeah that sounds good
thanks
luke what's up what's up guys um thanks for having the space yeah matt c uh yeah so you think do you think a lot of this
stuff is priced in at this point i've been trying to figure it out sorry i'm coming in late to the
space but uh it seems like i mean the everyone's so panicky it's like you guys have been around longer than I have, but in the previous actual recessions,
were people actually, was it consensus
that we were going into recession?
I would bet no, right?
It depends which one we're talking about.
Yeah, 2008, some people were calling it but i i don't know yeah
like i mean i was so what's your perspective on all this because it seems well i feel everyone is so
uh sensitive to volatility because we've just been going up so just non-stop for two years. So I don't know.
Honestly, without,
so the short answer is without labor market falling off a cliff,
it's not a recession.
It's really not.
We can have massive drawdowns,
like in 2022,
we can see 50% corrections in the MAG7.
We can see both equities and bonds
have a bad year in 2022.
But until people are actually getting fired and you see unemployment going from 4% to
4.5% to 5% to 6% and higher, that's a recession to me.
So to me, no, not a recession.
But hey, it could still be a bad bear market. Sure. And
that's the thing. That's what we're all grappling with. Like is, is, is, is Trump willing to send
us into a bear market or not? If, if Wednesday comes along and it's all the countries that
you've already been hearing about again. So it's China, it's Canada, it's Mexico and that's it.
Oh, excuse me. And Venezuela. And that's it. it's Mexico, and that's it.
Oh, excuse me, and Venezuela.
And that's it?
That's music to the market's ears.
It's really just as simple as that.
Okay, these are all countries that you've already been told about over and over and over for weeks on CNBC and CNN.
That's great.
That means that's no new information and the market's already digested that.
And big money will step in and start buying assets on the cheap. They will. Now, if you start talking countries that no one had considered
before, again, like I mentioned earlier, you know, if suddenly there's a new tariff on
on greater Europe or for some reason, you know, Africa, like, you know, just, just things, countries and,
and continents that hadn't been considered before. That's the problem.
That's the risk. So I forget the earlier question.
Matt, can I jump in real fast?
Oh, please go ahead.
So like, look, I, I, I generally agree with your thesis,
but like, I think the problem is, is like,
I don't necessarily
see a rush back in of big money uh maybe maybe to the equity markets but i think bitcoin is still
going to be relatively range bound and the problem that you bring up with with the job market is yes
we haven't seen major hiring but as pal pointed out like we're not we're not seeing a lot of hiring
we're not seeing layoffs either.
So we're just sort of stuck.
And I think if you're trying to find a job, it's very difficult.
But at the same time, people aren't leaving their jobs,
mobility wise or being laid off.
So we need something to push us out of this malaise.
And until then
I think we're just sort of range bound
also you see look at the
post I put in the nest
too I mean
it's just head fake.
Right.
Yeah, that's the will he, won't he, will he, won't he.
Yeah, you can't, like, I don't know.
Like, at this point, has the worst case scenario been priced in?
So, like, if anything is better than what people are expecting, then it's going to be okay?
Like, near term? I'm just trying to figure calculate all this
because it's you cannot have a strong view any type of way right now when trump's literally
going polar opposite every other day right but now but now he's kind of how to put he's kind of put himself in a corner now because
he's he's he's hyped up wednesday like okay all will be revealed so either you're you're gonna
get the details you will get the announcements and amen what what if this is like the inverse of like
those crypto events that he's been doing the the crypto summit, which ended up being a local top.
Right.
The executive order signings ended up being a local top.
Inauguration.
Yeah.
What if like we dump into the tariff liberation day and that ends up being like a massive local bottom?
That's what I'm talking about.
Wouldn't that be true? Or if it's not as bad as people
think and there's actually
concessions or deals with other countries.
I mean...
Yeah. I'm not...
I'm not saying
a nothing burger means a V-shaped
recovery and it's off to new all-time
highs. I'm in Donnie's camp of...
We've done some serious damage on
the charts, whether you're looking at Bitcoin or S&Pp 500 it's going to take consolidation it's going to take
uh uh more money moving into this space but i'm still bullish that support holds i'm still i want
to still stay in because i expect higher prices come june july um it would be you know uh we're just talking about like the support
hold or not just that simple no summer dojment no summer dojment we got it early that's the thing
we got it early because it's we front ran it goes to the front running cycle that's what that's what
yeah and then like far coin oh sorry go ahead Main go away has been right for three years straight,
and some people are going to literally just try to copy trade that this year,
and they might be so offside, depending on what Wednesday happens.
And then you get the tax sell-off period.
There's no way people are still waiting to sell for taxes now, right?
I mean, I feel like all the selling...
People have been selling
yeah that happens as soon as new year's is over because you because the new tax year is once new
years sorry if you don't mind i'm just going to jump in uh i love the conversation guys thanks
for having me out um more i'm speaking more less from the data perspective, more from like the psychology and emotion perspective.
Generally, the sentiment I hear is like. Very few people have an appetite to sell from here, right?
Like most people that that wanted to sell that were really fearful probably did.
And then I think there's a lot of people that have been in the preserved capital mode. And I think that means we probably
are near the bottom because people are afraid to go any lower. People are afraid to sell and then
they'd get burned. So I think my perspective is I'm not afraid to buy right now. It doesn't mean,
like you say, there's no V-shape recovery like upon us but at the same time
it feels like if you have an appetite for risk at all in the near future like this is the time to
start leaning into that because i just don't see an appetite for selling anymore there's an appetite
for holding for preserving capital but for selling further i just i don't see where that appetite
would be well yeah oh sorry sorry uh there was an earlier question about how did this compare to previous recessions.
And I'll just make this little anecdote real quick.
In 2008, I was living in Texas, growing up in Texas.
I was so worried about the state of the economy.
Now, again, this was like
summer 2008. So it was before the massive capitulation. But what you saw, even if you're
a novice, even if you had no years and years of experience, what you saw were bad month after bad
month of job data, of unemployment rising, of negative growth. Oh, no jobs growth this year.
Oh, negative growth job, negative jobs growth this month. Oh, another no, no growth another month.
Companies missing earnings left and right. 2008 was a bad year, the whole year. And then,
you know, if you're looking at the chart, we all know it famously fell off a cliff in the fall and winter.
So, I mean, but I was so worried about it in 2008 that I sold my family's home in late spring 2008 and literally joined the Marine Corps.
I started my first day at boot camp, September 1st, 2008.
So, no, we're not nearly, I'm not nearly that bearish at all not even a little
bull at all doesn't remind me anything of compared to 2008 my 2008 the obscene obscene leverage
situation was something that we don't have today just from the company's perspective like that
the the insane amount of you know it's essentially like restaking protocols that we're now doing is dgens right but like that but the one but the place but the place you can't hide it is
you can't hide it in corporate profits you can't hide it in unemployment you can't hide it in the
weekly initial jobless claims like that shit shows up maybe not the first week maybe not the first month but month
after month quarter after quarter so yeah by late spring 2008 i sold my family's home by september
1st i was literally uh standing on the parade deck at marine corps base in san diego so uh yeah
but matt my question though yeah because everyone's freaking out but you like usually
like say we did it everything went to shit whatever through the year isn't there like
matt there's massive rallies like if we're going if if the bottoming process into like an actual
recession happens there's isn't there like massive counter trend rallies?
It like when the hard data starts really coming out and say,
okay,
it's fucked.
Everything's fucked.
Like it seems like there's generally like times where you can get out at
some point.
Like once the hard data really starts rolling in, right?
Or am I wrong there?
Well, I mean, I'm not that much older than yourself.
I vaguely remember the dot-com bubble,
and I definitely remember the great financial crisis.
But there's those
like massive counter trend rallies like there's like if you look at the uh dot-com bubble like
there was massive rallies into the bear market you know what i mean
i guess i know what you mean like yeah a big 30% correction then a massive
dead count bounce
if it was going to shit
you would have
you would actually be able to get out
and not be
selling at whatever
30-40% down
you know what I mean
yeah yeah I hear you there i do um but
yeah i i don't know this is something new you don't normally have an administration or a president
that's um uh flirting with a bear market this hard i don't think he's trying to induce a
recession but i think that you know trying to. I don't think he's trying to induce a recession, but I think that, you know,
trying to not get political.
I think he's very much trying to remake
large swaths of the U.S. economy
for, you know, for better or worse,
but he's got a vision.
And if that brings pain,
even to his point,
I think he's got several quotes out there now.
But, you know, if that brings pain, even to his point, I think he's got several quotes out there now. But, you know, if that brings pain, short-term pain, he views it as acceptable.
Yeah, I mean, I get what they're trying to do.
Like, they're very clear.
Besson's been coming out and talking about it.
But I just find it fascinating.
I just find it fascinating.
Like they're really, they're, they're walking a tight rope and it, it, it seems like a balls
Like, they're really, they're walking a tightrope.
in the air type of situation because if, if they accidentally push too hard and it, it,
it really goes into a downturn there, their whole plan of getting the deficit down and
all that type of stuff goes out the window because a recession the tax receipts go to shit and the deficit goes even more vertical so i well that's
why well so i just saw a dm that this kind of touches on that point that's why i've never
sold my bitcoin that's why that's why like okay we can talk about what to do in case of bull market
or bear market, but I'm never selling my Bitcoin because I don't think this deficit problem is
going away in the short term at all. I see, unfortunately, as just another case where
we're going to end up printing our way out of it. I don't see the 10-year falling off a cliff and, oh, we're going to be able to roll our debt into much cheaper rates.
It doesn't look like that's nearly as easy as everyone predicted it would be two months ago, four months ago, half a year ago.
It looks like just another case of, well, we have obligations that we've promised to the U.S. people, whether it's Social Security or Department of Defense or Medicare or et cetera.
Unless you just start sticking up the middle finger and refusing to pay people their benefits, sorry, you're going to have to print the debt.
You're going to have to spin up
the money machine um so yeah i stay long i stay long bitcoin because um you know short term medium
term long term um going long dollars a losing trade period yeah i had a conversation so to
speak with chat gpt on this topic, actually, because I was trying to build
out a framework and actually it produced a good graphic for me, a visual framework.
And believe it or not, me and ChatGPT went back and forth a lot of this. And, you know, my thesis
is that there's no scenario where it's bad to buy crypto right now. There is a question of like what
you buy. But, you know, if we were to, you know, if we were to successfully avoid
recession, markets become resilient again. Obviously, there's an appetite for risk and
then all kinds of crypto benefits. But on the other hand, if we do enter reception, then it
becomes a situation where the dollar gets devalued and then you start to worry about where you're
going to put your capital, how are you going to preserve it and bitcoin becomes attractive because it's a global currency that's
not as sensitive to the dollar's value so i i don't see a scenario where crypto is bad i just
think it's a question of you know your ratio of alts to bitcoin in my view 100 hey wabi i've got
to roll but thanks so much for coming up.
Yeah, no problem, man.
Yeah, we'll run through these last people, and then I'll wrap up, man.
But, Matt, thanks for coming on, bro.
I'll pass it over to Lunatic, then Rolo, and James, and then that's pretty much it.
Lunatic, what's up, man?
Hey, what's up, guys?
Thanks for having me.
Kind of off topic, but I don't know.
I'm just, like, struggling with, like, kind of, like, the bags that I'm not, like, underwater,
but, like, they haven't been bouncing, like, compared to, like, Fartcoin I keep on eyeing.
But, like, all my, like, other Solana memes that haven't really shown, like, strength, and I'm just, like,
trying to figure out if I should, like, swap it all into, like, something that's showing strength, or, like, um, just, like, ride it out, because maybe they'll, they'll have, like, their moment,
and, but I don't want to, like, over-rotate, too, but I don't want to be complacent, so I'm just
kind of, like, trying to figure out that move.
Do you guys like struggle with that or not really?
Bobby, do you want to take that?
Yeah. So, um,
I guess the thing we have to always look at whenever we're still positioned in
something is look at recency bias, right?
So one thing that stuck out to me was Farcoin not really making aggressive lower lows after February.
And we were talking about it on these spaces in like early March.
And Farcoin ended up going from like 18, 19 cents upwards to almost 60 cents.
ended up going from like 18 19 cents upwards to almost 60 cents and so whenever you see something
really rally extremely hard and do the same thing that it did during previous rallies where four
coin led the market in december if you are holding a bag that doesn't really show strength when the
broader market starts to rally and you see a strong coin leading
the rest of the market, then you should cut it. And if you're holding a bag that hasn't really
done much during any of these lower timeframe rallies, so BTC going from 76 to 88K or something
like that and your bag didn't rally, I would suggest you take out at the very least your risk.
rally, I would suggest you take out at the very least your risk, right? So if like you don't want
to hold, if you don't want to be down 50%, take down, take out 50%, right? If you can't withstand
a 10% drawdown, take out your whole, take out whatever, at least your initial, right? Like if
you can't stand an X amount of drawdown, then take away that risk, right? And always take out
your initials and like always realize that
the market doesn't really owe you a single thing especially when it comes to like bags that you're
underwater in and depending on what you hold right like if you hold memes your best your best risk on
like barometer for that would probably be bonk if you're bullish on memes and also ai
like both of those sectors far coin would probably it would probably be it and i mentioned bonk because
it's like the only solana meme outside of popcat that actually made new all-time highs
um perhaps also giga right um but that's what i would look at as far as like memes and ai and
also ai16z but if you're holding like super super high beta stuff then honestly i would just wait
until um soul at the very least gets above 150 right it's been really struggling trying to trying to maintain above like 140 145 for the
last couple of weeks um so that's what i would have to say as far as soul and as far as like
myself struggling um in maintaining underwater bags um i've played the cycle a bit different where I position myself in a way where I try to get in as many leaders as possible instead of focusing in on one thing.
And whenever I have an outperformer, I quickly rotate that back into stables.
I've been selling a lot during this bull market, if you want to call it that, from the beginning, from the FTX low all the way up until January.
Just having lower price targets than most helps you, I would say. or something like that and it's a beneficiary of a narrative it's a lot better to have lower
price targets than exuberant price targets if you're playing beta right so if like if ai16z
is leading uh the ai market right then something that would help is like hey you know i found this cool ai ticker right um i don't think
it's gonna go to 300 mil but it might hit like 100 or 120 or something like that this is during
full bull market conditions right um while you're lagging out can you hear me now
yeah that's better
yeah yeah for soul it's tricky man for soul it's really really
really tricky and what helped me personally
would be like all right if i'm playing an ai ticker number one
the the team has to be somewhat doxxed right
we mentioned that earlier with griffin um and they have to do a lot of media right like if your
respective ai token or like meme community aren't really active right and i mean like super active you're just not gonna make it
you're just not gonna make it because when you buy anything outside of like
memes i mean sorry when you buy anything outside of like btc you're effectively saying that like
your edge is greater than trad fi which are are predominantly buying BTC and maybe some majors, right?
But anytime you buy something outside of BTC, you're effectively seeing that you have edge in the market.
And in order for you to have edge in the market, you have to recognize a thesis of attention.
You position yourself in an asset that says
hey this thing doesn't really have much attention I think there's gonna be many
more bags there's gonna be many more like bag holders in this asset so I want
to position myself before like you know another ten thousand or five thousand
people buy into this asset right it? It's like saying, you're saying that the market is wrong
in pricing in XYZ asset,
and then you're renting out a vehicle of attention.
And in crypto, because the attention is like really tiny
as far as the window of time for an asset to outperform,
those community members or or team or whatever,
they have to be constantly on the button on social media,
as crazy as it sounds, right?
So that's just what I've recognized in this market,
what's worked and what hasn't and all that stuff.
Sometimes you're just going to have to take the loss also, right?
You pay that tuition to the market.
But that's pretty much it for me, man.
I do have to wrap up here.
I do have to go.
So, Don, anything else you want to say, man, before I wrap up the space here, bro?
No, that's it, bro.
All right. No, that's it, bro. media company that loves to produce online live stream content. So we have multiple shows for all of you guys,
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