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Market Talk - Big week for crypto and stocks soon?! What’s next?!
Recorded: Feb. 20, 2026 Duration: 1:41:39Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the current trends and growth opportunities in the market, highlighting the resilience of Bitcoin and the potential for a relief rally. They also discussed the impact of geopolitical events on market volatility and the importance of adapting to changing conditions in both crypto and traditional finance.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Yes. Hey, I'm a 10! Oh
Break your back Oh Oh my god, you are the best guy. And live!
Oh, thank you.
Oh, thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Okay. Okay. Okay.
Oops. oh
Get ready, are you ready?
You're ready, you're ready.
You're ready.
You're ready.
You're ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready.
I'm ready. I'm ready. I'm no. Oh, no. Just to the heavy guy.
I'm not going to the heavy guy.
It's a bad thing.
Oh. I'm going to go. I Thank you. .
We're great as we go, heavy in the crowd.
We're down and cold, yeah.
Double wears you down.
Overload of heart and stumble.
Hit the ground and heavy crumble.
All alone, I'm fierce and humble.
I'm gonna want your pride.
You can't. You can't hurt me. You can't hurt me.
I am not your pain.
I am not your pain.
I am not only guy. I am the only guy.
I am the only guy.
I am the only guy.
I am the only guy.
I am the only guy.
I am the only guy.
I am the only guy.
I am the only guy.
I am the only guy.
I am the only guy.
I am the only guy. I am the only guy. okay Yo, what's going on, guys?
Welcome, welcome, welcome.
Happy Friday.
Happy Saturday, wherever you are.
Hope you're all having a fantastic day.
I want to apologize for not going live yesterday. I was feeling extremely under the weather.
So apologies for that, guys. I'm going to try to pump it through to today's show.
We're going to have some of our usual speakers on here, maybe some new guests.
I've got some perhaps some surprises coming in shortly that you
guys might enjoy but uh i got data up here and um we're gonna go ahead and uh talk about markets
today and just want to say that i'm grateful to be here with you all today to yap and um i just
hope you're all having a fantastic day and thank you all so much for those of you that are tuning in right now or for those of you that are listening to the recording and man we've got the equity markets close
to inching towards new all-time highs specifically the s p 500 we've got um some potential things with tariffs, things about aliens.
So there's a lot of stuff going on that wants to shake up these markets.
But most of all, as we've been discussing on the show, volatility is the name of the game.
As long as there's volatility, as long as there's some stuff to do,
this market will remain interesting,
whether it's crypto, whether it's stocks.
Not much really happening in crypto land as far as all coins.
Just a few things as far as attention-based stuff,
like that monkey coin or whatever punch,
that monkey that's like getting bullied in china
or whatever it is so it's like this it's the same stuff it's the these um these tokenized attention
is what i call it and it always happens on soul but um i remember on the last show that we had
on wednesday there were a few alts that people were mentioning. One of them being Aztec, and that hit an all-time high today. Someone had also
mentioned Bio, and that's up like over 30% today. So shout out to the individual that
called out some of those tickers. I know Aztec is the privacy layer on ETH.
I actually think it's on, I think this thing is actually on mainnet.
Actually, no, it's an L2 token, but I think you can just buy it on,
no, it is actually an l2 excuse me i was
thinking about something else i thought it was i thought it was something else on eth but yeah but
this is an actual privacy layer on eth it's an l2 but either way it's one of these um low flow
high fdv tokens and man i think we've seen so much of this already pan out that
the market just takes care of it within a couple of days or weeks and it just has a slow bleed
to zero while unlocks happen and people that were given free aloe just dump on the market but I
think the main thing to discuss today would be the S&P 500. Is this going to be kind of the same price action that we saw?
I think it literally was around this time last year where we saw, and eerily enough, we saw the S&P 500 making a new all-time high around this time last year, just as crypto was just starting to consolidate after a massive pullback earlier that week.
I think it was February 15th where the S&P 500 had topped out, like pico top before that six week bear market so um that's the thing are we
about to do somewhat of the same thing where we hit a marginal all-time high on the s&p with the
queues lagging behind um and shortly after the iwm was outperforming, that's exactly what we saw. We saw the IWM outperform.
Then markets were just ranging for a bit.
S&P makes a new marginal high, and that was that.
Are we about to see the same thing?
That's kind of my question.
I think markets are just waiting for this wall of worry, right?
There's also the potential for a war with Iran.
Honestly, I think any sort of headline in regards to that,
I think it would make this small downturn finish off in one day,
just like a huge rip-off, the Band-Aid kind of situation.
And we saw these things happen
last year with the tariff as far as um quick days to the downside where i think it was
like four trading sessions where the s&p declined by like two percent and that ended up forming that
bottom so there's a saying right history doesn History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
And you guys are going to have to excuse me if my voice isn't really loud and enthusiastic.
I'm not actually able to raise my voice as much or else I'll literally start coughing up a lung.
But that's kind of my intro. I haven't spoken to Data in a number of weeks. I'm going
to pass it on over to him and see what his thoughts are on the market. But before I do that,
guys, if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space, show some love to the stream,
best way to do that, guys, is by clicking the spaces tab. you guys do that you'll see a link right above our
profile pictures on the nest that says x.com slash i slash spaces you guys can go ahead hit up the
like button smash up the retweet button so we can get more people in here does a number of things
brings the show more out into the algorithm and as i said helps bring more people
into the show brings more awareness to market talk it doesn't take that much time and it's always
appreciated you guys always do such a great job and as always guys spaces are recorded and with
that being said i'm going to go ahead and uh pass it over to data so data what
have what have your thoughts been on the market um I think this is the first time that you've
been on the show um since BTC hit 60k I believe and Solana hit 67 dollars so do you think that's
the bottom man or do you think crypto is potentially about
to do the same thing that it did uh around this time last year with similar geopolitical shenanigans
and uh tariff shenanigans and and all that stuff man and thanks for coming on by the way
hey what's going on wabi always a pleasure man and yeah it's been a while since i've been on here
and really just been again it's busy obviously there's stuff with ai going on, Wabi? Always a pleasure, man. And yeah, it's been a while since I've been on here and really just been, again, it's busy. Obviously, there's stuff with AI going on, OpenClaw, all that stuff, right? So just kind of doing a few other things as well. But yeah, I've been keeping track of the market. And I think one of the things that people should look at is just the resiliency of crypto and Bitcoin right now, right? And a lot of my groups were saying they were surprised
by the lack of downside that happened today,
especially with the announcement with, you know,
the Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs declaring them illegal
and him having to pay back up to $175 billion in tariff revenue.
And people were thinking the market would drop on that,
especially whenever he announced, you know, his new 10% global tariff.
And that's something that usually would cause a dump in the market,
but really we didn't do much.
And so I think that the market is probably,
I don't want to say immune to tariff news,
but I think that pretty much it's almost going in the way
of China ban Bitcoin for the 10th time, right?
And so that is at least good to see.
Now, you mentioned Iran as well and the war with that. Now, I do know that Trump did give a 10-day
military strike ultimatum. So the deadline, I believe, is around March 1st for them to come to
the negotiating table. And so that's something as well that people are watching. But I think during this whole time and really this year, I think people are pricing in a strike on Iran. And obviously, if that happens, yeah, we make it a short term dip. But historically, whenever you buy the invasion, quote unquote, I mean, over, you know, the week or two weeks as it's happening, that has been the best buying opportunity. And I know we've been in extreme fear for the past, what, three weeks nearly now. And so, I mean, historically,
sentiments near all-time lows. People are still uncertain. Bitcoin's still held above 66K for the
past week and a half. And so there is some structural positives, I would say, as far as
potentially we could reach a bottom. I do think we are due for a
relief rally, probably by the beginning of March. And in my opinion, I mean, it's fairly easy
in validation. Like you could say a four-hour close below 65K or a daily close below 66K,
right? Like clearly if we end up closing below out of this range, then yeah, we're probably going
lower. But I do think that this relative strength should be noticed because, I mean,
this market is saying that I potentially want to go up here.
And we did have, I believe, $280 million of Bitcoin bought on Binance just a couple hours ago.
And so that is something interesting, too.
If you look at the one minute, I think it was around probably around 11 a.m. Central Standard Time around there.
You saw the buys.
But yeah, so people are still interested.
I'm sure institutions are interested right now just seeing the resiliency.
And I mean, really the big question is going to be, okay, what happens after the strike if we do have a strike?
Because if it's something small, I would say, quote unquote,
like we had whenever they struck the nuclear facilities in Iran,
and that was basically the bottom there,
and the market rallied on that because people were expecting it.
I think it's more or less like how much are people expecting this strike to happen? I mean, if the chances right now in Polymarket, I believe,
are close to 60% right now by March 1st or by the end of March. And so people
are really starting to price it in. And that's just something you have to look out for and just
look at what levels are we holding. And so, yeah, in my opinion, I would say for now, I'd lean more
bullish, cautiously optimistic would be the terminology I would use. And then just bet on
everything that way and just kind of take it
one step at a time. And you're when you were talking about the stock market as well, the S&P.
So I do think the S&P is due for a pullback. Now, yes, we did have a big, big pullback,
you know, last year. But I do think that if you look at the trend line here, I mean,
we're kind of at the upper of that trend line resistance in your 7k. And so maybe one more higher high to
make a bearish divergence before lower because RSI has just been ticking down on the weekly
as price is making higher highs. And so I think that the S&P is overdue for a pullback. And is
that going to cause a flight to safety into crypto finally? Right. I mean, because stocks have been
outperforming crypto for a while. I do think it's very possible. I mean, I do think it's possible we could see some type of outperformance in crypto over these next few weeks, at least probably for a majority of March.
And then I would assume potentially one last big pullback for Bitcoin, maybe to $55K, maybe a little bit lower.
That would coincide with the $618 in the golden pocket on the weekly.
Also with the 200 weekly SMA, that's at 57K. We didn't quite reach yet. And then also a few big
support levels around 53 to 55. And so that's a good confluence area. If we do make a lower low,
which would most likely form a bullish divergence, which historically marks bottoms in the market.
And so that's what I'm looking for. I'm looking for a potential relief bounce over the next,
call it three weeks or so, and then potentially one more big drop afterwards.
And then after Kevin Warsh gets nominated mid-March, after Drone Pal gets out of office,
or mid-May, sorry, then we'll see what happens with that with more rate cuts,
potentially quantitative easing if it doesn't affect inflation. And, you know, then we could start talking about that.
But that's my plan right now.
Just looking for outperformers, relative strength,
and just studying how the market's reacting to all this macro news.
Apparently, puts are like extremely way more expensive than calls right now.
I'm looking at this post from Seaking Options.
Someone put it on the Discord.
And, yeah.
It's potentially a gap up, right?
I could see something like that play out, right?
Have you been playing
on-chain, or have you stepped away from it for a while?
You know, I've been looking on-chain, and one token I was in for a while, and still
a little bit in, is War. So War was doing really good, Meme on Solana, and that had
some fairly good strength. I was playing a few of the ai plays
conway research was one on base because the whole thing with open claw and then conway allows now
agents to trade stable coins so that was something um so playing a little ai and then i believe there
was one more i can't think of it at the moment but yeah it's just been a little bit i mean i haven't
been you know chronically on chain just because opportunities are few and far in between in terms of you can't really hold anything for a long time anymore.
I mean, usually pumps get sold off fairly quickly.
So I'm just trying to get in, get out if there's any type of narrative or hype that, you know, comes up from a tweet or something. But yeah, I would say mainly I've just been leverage trading the top 10, top 20 tokens
and looking for ones that are outperforming, even like Hyperliquid and obviously Bitcoin
Eats Solana and a few others.
But yeah, it's interesting seeing on chain right now and just seeing it's not dry, but
at the same time, I mean, you just got to get in and get out because a lot of these tokens aren't really lasting for more than a few days.
Yeah, at least there's like still some stuff to do.
You just you just have to still put in the time behind the screen.
Like going into, um, going into like Dollar General to buy beef when you're used to going
into Whole Foods, you know, it's, it's, it's, it's like being used to eating at a Michelin
Star restaurant and you're eating at McDonald's and you're like, I don't know what
you're talking about. The food is still good. That's, that's, that's, those are kind of my
thoughts whenever I hear like someone say, oh, there's still cooks and all that stuff in the
trenches. And it's like, I think when people still are calling,-chain the trenches, the trenches aren't—that's not a good word, man.
The trenches is like war.
The trenches is like the struggle bus.
It shouldn't be called the trenches.
Like, now it's the trenches because the ceilings are low.
They don't last that long. And I was discussing this on the show and I was yapping about the AI stuff, right? And most of these things are still topping out between 10 mil to 30 with the exception of like a few, but they all kind of have the same characteristics,
which makes me think,
I think it's the same pool of capital rotating in and out.
They have these lifespans of a few days and they have these two big pullbacks.
And on the second big pullback, the fractals start to come out.
And it's like the entire market is just in unison that once something sends to 10 to 35,
and that's most of them, right?
They're just going to send it to zero slowly.
it to zero slowly um i don't think there's been like an actual good on-chain dca at all man um
these things just they're just like these these pump and dumps that only last um for a short amount of time and do you notice that some things on base have been trading like things on soul now
yeah i i do know that and i realized that because i you know i think eventually well
how it used to be was obviously soul was it was the main chain for trenches right and base was
kind of the quote-unquote safe haven. Many people didn't trade on there.
And now we're starting to see a lot of people
from Seoul bridge over to base
and see that there is still opportunity there.
And I think now it's like the virus, if you will,
it's just kind of moved over.
And it's like people are looking for opportunities
wherever they can.
So if the trenches are dry on Solano,
well, now they're going to go to base
and they're going to affect that network. And so it's, I think anywhere, I don't think anywhere
is safe for that. And even, you know, Binance Smart Chain, even there, I'm sure that's going
to get even more toxic. And it's just, I mean, you have to, you have to be selfish in a way,
you know, as bad as that sounds. It's like, because there's so much AI trading now, there's
so many Jeets nowadays, and it's just people have been conditioned to take profits ASAP.
And even when you have tokens where the White House is tweeting about it, Elon is tweeting
about it, I mean, talking about Penguin and all of these people tweeting about it. Granted,
it got to 180 mil, or maybe it was lower than that, but it got above 100 mil, but it couldn't last
above that for long. And then it just died afterwards. And that tells you the state of
the trenches where you can have so many people pushing it. It should be a $500 million meme,
a billion dollar meme. But again, there's such a dilution of capital now with thousands of tokens
being created each day. It's like, so you got to be selfish. You got to rotate because it's not really a holder's market anymore.
And yeah, if something can still last a week, two weeks, I mean, I know that, you know,
PsyopAnime was a great meme and that one was doing really well.
They're still making content, right?
But it's like people still have ADHD and they want to look for the next big thing
and they feel like they missed the boat.
So looking for the next one.
And then there's always, you know pvp between two memes and you
know they'll vamp one meme you know basically on pump to go to bonk and then just go back and forth
with that so like the space is very toxic right now and it's just literally making profits where
you can and then at least taking out your initials of anything and then okay trying to find the next
opportunity just in case yours pumps but yeah it's it's just a different game right now than it used to be last cycle.
And we're seeing that continue to devolve, you could say, as people just take profits quicker.
And so it's, you know, you have to play smart at the end of the day.
Do you know what Jujutsu Kaisen is, bro?
I do not. is satsuru gojo and satsuru he fights sukuna plus two powerful shikigamis maharaga and aguto
I do not.
Oh, I see.
and that's kind of the market that we're in right now we're satsuru gojo fighting against like three
insanely strong beings and during the fight he loses one of his arms and eventually he just
beings and during the fight he loses one of his arms and eventually he just he he loses the fight
right and i think that's how on chain is right now like it puts up a good fight it looks like
it looks like some people are winning and for a minute people get cocky just like uh sorteru did
and i think that was the case with Penguin.
That was kind of like last year's moment with... If you remember, there were a few on-chain things that actually ran up quite hard.
Libra was one of them.
And I think Jelly Jelly was another as well.
And they both ran up to hundreds of millions, but the pump only lasted two days.
But because the market cap went up so high, there were a lot of people that were like
enthusiastic about, about on chain.
And that was kind of like the start of the euthanasia roller coaster um and then on
chain basically became dead until uh launch coin and cled later that year um in like may
so maybe something similar happens man and i'm hoping that's the case with like crypto ai i do hope something happens but
there's just so many farmers man there are so many farmers in that sector and it feels like
some of these tickers are being launched by the same deployers because they have the same price action man it's like this pool of a million to two million in stables
and they just probably more like three to five mil i'll be generous like three to five mil
um that's just sloshing around and they create these these, short-lived narrative hype trains that end up with tokens topping out at the same market cap, man.
If you look at things like, for example, things like Anti-Hunter and Kelly Claude, it's like almost the same exact thing
and it's on base and like you
would think that these are charts
that were printed on Solana
absolutely yeah
it's interesting to see how the market
evolves and I think you know
as traders we have to be able to adapt
we have to be able to look at everything and decide, okay, where's there going to be the most opportunity
and where am I wasting my time? Because I think people have a hard time changing,
I say, their priorities, right? They're used to trading one way. And when it's not working,
they kind of get stubborn and they think, you know, they need to change. They think maybe it's
the market, not them, right? And it's just, yeah, you got to be able to look at where those opportunities
are at. And so we saw that even with, I mean, last year with stocks and then precious metals
towards the end of last year and how those just took off. And then obviously we had to pull back
in those and, you know, AI took off. And then finally, those are those stocks are having large
pullbacks now across the board. And so it just all goes in rotations at the end of the day. And I think in general,
people should still diversify, I think, between stocks and crypto. And even with commodities
and precious metals, I know oil is doing great right now because we talked about the whole thing
with Iran. And I think, again, if people just look at where the opportunities lie, whether it's now
it's defense stocks, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, etc.
Like, just need to be able to predict it if you're really trying to be a day trader and capitalize on these opportunities.
You know, that's where the alpha is at.
Literally just looking at the macro news and predicting, you know, what's going to happen, looking at previous cycles, previous, you know, rotations, like you were saying last year with stocks and how that affected crypto after it topped out.
And so, yeah, if you put in the works, you can still make a lot of money in this market.
But we're definitely not on easy mode like we were last cycle.
It's definitely things are happening this cycle that aren't as easy to predict.
Like with tariffs and all this stuff was implemented, the market hardly moved.
No one expected that.
Everyone was expecting, oh, we're at least going to drop a little bit.
But no, Bitcoin's at the same spot it was yesterday. And so now it's like, okay, I got to
change my strategy a little bit, or at least I got to tighten my risk a little bit because,
you know, I don't want to be caught on the wrong side. And so it's just, you have to change how
you play it. But again, there's still, like you said, a lot of opportunity. And as long as people
can identify those and identify, you know, how the market shifted now, it's, you can, you can
still play that and be successful, but it's just going to take some work well i'll pass it over to david now man um david
target and uh coca-cola new year to date highs how are you feeling man I just woke up from a nap
I had to get up in the middle of the night
because
we knew today was going to be
interesting
I appreciate a lot of what the last
speaker said
I particularly appreciated him saying
calibrate down your risk. I don't agree that
people can anticipate with any reasonable asymmetry in the current context, because
we're at a point in a cycle, just think about it, there's 100 quadrillion pennies that's going to move.
100, you know, one quadrillion dollars.
It's going to move.
And what was holding it back was all this uncertainty,
all this policy interference, all this noise, all this nonsense.
That's ending.
The uncertainty is failing.
The decay of volatility is
observable to everybody.
There is a chart that I've created.
I try to get it up before I started speaking.
I have it right here.
Let me, um, let me, uh, let me shoot it. And then let me, um, send it up. I want to do it on a
weekly and a daily because the daily is already and a, um, excuse me, is already in a death cross
and what this chart
is is it's Bitcoin
plus
a thousand times
its own volatility
just to make sure that the decimals line up
with the 67,000
Bitcoin
and its volatility which is only
in the dollar amounts.
I got to take this out.
Excuse me.
We're not going to be eating.
I can't do that, but we're burning.
Ouch.
Ouch. Ouch.
Ouch.
You got to put this back in?
Okay.
Okay.
Let me post that in the nest right now.
One picture, one, two.
Okay.
Post, and then I'll just swing it up into the nest when it shows up.
Okay. shows up okay so we just hit an all-time low close for um the last year in bitcoin and its own
volatility and what this is saying is there's more liquidity showing up in bitcoin than at any time
in a year but really in any time in history. There is more institutional volatility selling
from these giant ETFs that are putting pressure on it. Today, we had a meltdown in the cyber stocks,
and they're trying to say that it's the cyber stocks. It's not the cyber stocks.
It's not the cyber stocks. Institutions have monthly meetings and institutions decide every
month how these incremental reductions or increases in allocation to sectors will change.
They're not going to go from 25 to 18. They're going to go to 25 to 24, maybe 23. So when you have to find money to buy Google and
Amazon and, you know, on the news of the tariffs, you're getting the money from somewhere. It's not
coming from a money market. It's not coming from money lying around, you in the in the couch's uh corner you're getting the money from other
stuff in the sector because it is it's internal sector rotation because we're losing
we're losing the uncertainty and more and when you have more and more certainty the way to make
money is to short volatility we're getting closer to where bonds
are going to be the strongest asset in the world. We're already seeing the global curve flattened
despite all of the noise, all of the news, all of the hysteria, and all of the fiction.
I talk about the most important thing that exists is bonds.
They're not dominant all the time.
They're dormant.
When they want to be dominant, they're dominant.
And we're losing volatility.
And on my spaces, that's how people just first started.
Because they know my primary thing was fixed income, but equity is a core component of that.
And crypto is now important information.
And mortgages are the driving force of half of the global engine. It's mortgages and it's innovation. It's the NASDAQ outperforming the S&P, which stopped happening when Sam Altman had his fables,
when Oracle said we're getting $300 billion of revenue,
and it turns out it was coming from someone who can't even keep their deal with NVIDIA alive for six months.
We are losing this hopium inflation narrative.
Stocks love inflation.
They don't hate inflation. They love it. Because if you have
revenue, you will find a way to make a profit. The biggest problem is when you do not have revenue.
We close the week on the bond up three and a half basis points. When you consider we lost these
tariffs, that's pretty good. We're at the low end of the range. German
rates are at a three-month low. The Japanese 40-year, which was everyone losing their mind,
and on November 28th, I said, I'll take it unhedged because the rate was 4.1 basis points
nine years ago when their stock market was at under 10,
and they had massive deflation,
and 4.1 basis point was a very good real rate because they had negative inflation.
And so that rate goes up 92 times, and now people are losing their minds?
Are you kidding me?
The horse didn't leave the barn, the county, and the state. It's left
this planet. So now we've round-tripped and we got to 355 after going from that 370 approximately
on November 28th, which was the breakthrough of the May 18th peak, and then we go to 422 for about
five minutes, all the way back down. And now we're below that
level nine months ago. You've surrendered that. You've got the UK, which is leading all global
10-year rates lower. It's at a new low. It's at a new low, near a new low. They have rising
unemployment. They have falling inflation. And they're giving all their growth to the US.
falling inflation, and they're giving all their growth to the U.S.
Germany, with all their military spending, they're breaking down. It's a pattern. Long duration
treasuries are linked by swaps. If one seems too expensive, you'll shorten and buy another
because in the G7, they're all reliable payers.
because in the G7, they're all reliable payers.
So when you hear people do deck chair on the Titanic stuff,
the best thing the last speaker said is,
in uncertainty, calibrate down your risk
so that when you have more confidence, you'll be around.
Don't be a chaser. Don't be a pig.
Don't blow yourself up before the greatest opportunity that ever was.
We are going to move one quadrillion dollars from column A to column B,
from this zip code to another zip code,
and you could front run it like the world's greatest surfer in front of a tsunami.
But you can't if you blow yourself up by looking at crap and having the frame that
one direction is the only direction.
There are two tails in volatility.
Sometimes it's up, sometimes it's down.
But we have rates breaking down and nobody's talking about it.
They're still talking.
PCE was elevated today.
It was not.
And they said GDP came in at 1.4. It was not. And they said GTP came in at 1.4. It did not. It was a methodological
quirk that occurs during a shutdown where wages are miscalculated and get revised later
by the government, all those government employees. So they had a 2.8, we had an eight basis point
miss on the price deflator of GDP. So they said, oh, the prices are up 3.6, the nominal,
3.6, the nominal, excuse me, was up 5. Well, we say it's 3.6 inflation and 1.4 real. It's really
2.2 real and 2.8. And they would have otherwise worked it out this quarter, but my party decided
we're going to shut down the government because we don't like how immigration law is being enforced.
So it's a choice.
They think that's going to win us the election in the midterms.
The Republicans think something completely different,
and it distorts the data collection.
Its mechanicals are real.
The yields are telling you what 8 billion people on planet Earth believe.
If I could get you to believe that 8 billion people are more important
than about 100,000 crypto traders, I'll succeed in my message for the day.
Take information from more people than fewer people.
Take information from FANG more than cyber stocks.
Take information more from Bitcoin than al people. Take information from FANG more than cyber stocks. Take information more from Bitcoin than alts. But you cannot argue with the two-year curve to the three-year was 2.4 basis
points from inversion. That's $7 trillion, folks. And you've got Strzok and Miller and Fink and all these guys
who know nothing about mortgages. They barely know anything about bonds. They're just trend traders
and they're getting blown up. And the whole mortgage community, they're not for the most
part on leverage. They have embedded leverage inside the short option in a mortgage. But they're
model-driven, and I've told you this. They're model-driven. I understand their models. They're
currently positioned for a steepener. They're not worried about prepayment speeds. Meanwhile,
the refi index is at a two-year high. Rates are falling, and we had a special case with the snow weather. We delayed the start of the pre-start of
the housing season. You know, I'm not advocating for a buy of restoration hardware. I prefer
Williams-Sonoma that's at an all-time high consolidating its introduction to the S&P 500,
but they had a restoration hardware up 12% on the announcement.
You know, it gave back a lot of it. There are so many things going up, folks, that don't have the
word crypto or cyber because these tech companies over a full cycle do not make much money.
They usually have Apple and Intel from the old day had a nine or 10 multiple.
People consider that expensive. Why? Because they build up capital expenditures.
They build up crazy earnings. And then they write it all off. And they made their people
a couple of cents. When you have negative real rates, which we did under Joe Biden, we had a negative 9% inflation rate, excuse me, negative 9% cost of money.
It was a 9.1 in June of 2022.
What did they do?
They hiked 75 basis points on July 28 of 2022, which was a few days after they released the CPI report. And that to me was the signal,
I'm uber bearish, longer term on tech, but I'm maximum long tech. You see, you could keep two
thoughts in your head. We had 9% inflation, and the Fed was going to stop accelerating the rate of um hikes
May March 17th 25 May 50 June what was it uh 18 10 whatever they hiked 75 for the first time July
28th they hiked 75 which one is is different? The 75 the second time.
You stopped accelerating policy.
Why?
Citibank would have failed.
Credit Suisse lost.
First Republic.
Silicon Valley Bank.
These people cannot handle massive shifts in the shape of the yield curve,
which inverted to 110 negative
they can't make any money in that environment and we're not resilient enough we will be but we're
not there yet private credits our solution and not these garbage piles like blue isle
we have the inverted curve they cannot maintain.
Citibank going to fail.
Citibank on October 12th hit $4 a share about,
3.15% market cap to their total assets.
These are unsustainable numbers.
The credit default swap guys, like what they did to Oracle,
they will run them over.
That's the end of them.
So look at the big stuff.
Don't look at the world as a giant alt.
Look at the basis, not the spread.
Look at the basis, not the spread.
Bitcoin is now
$3,000 or $4,000
from when I covered it
on Thursday between 6 and 7 o'clock
on that two weeks ago,
11 trading days in regular trading
or 15 days in crypto trading.
I don't know how people can think that you have a price that can't get above a five-year-ago level
on November 10th, 2021.
And all they can do is focus on it.
When there are so many things that have so much RSI and momentum on the way up and so much RSI and momentum on the way down,
do a monthly chart of software versus semiconductors, IGV, denominator, and SMH.
It's a 21 RSI monthly. you can't keep that folks you can't keep
a 21 going very long so it's a you know it's a shorting of of semis to fund the buying of all
these garbage things that all they talk about is they just fall every single day you know i i just want you to like the last figure said you know follow trends but
when you're following a trend that's at the end of its useful life where the asymmetry of
volatility to price has gone against you why not find stuff that has
no volatility that's exploding in volatility instead of buying things that had volatility
and the volatility is dying and i'm going to send you a picture of what i'm talking about
i got a new version of this let Let me see if I can find it.
I just got it today.
We had to make some...
Oh, they made some changes that they weren't correct.
So I'll just put this one up.
This is showing you,
you need a vol compression
before you can get a vol expansion.
And, you know,
if you're on the wrong side,
you're going to have a big problem.
And I think a lot of people are on the right side, and a lot of people are on the wrong side. Here, this is what it is. Okay. You're seeing a collapse of volatility in Bitcoin,
but it could collapse for years. It could collapse for a decade and go nowhere.
And while you're focused on it's feeling safer to get long,
it's just not going anywhere.
Hoping for a spontaneous excitation, I think, is a mistake.
There are things that have gone through its volatility compression,
and now it's time to look at them. There are things that have gone through its volatility compression.
And now it's time to look at them.
So I'm hopeful when I speak and I put out my message that the most important thing that exists is the fixed income,
which is three times the size of global equity.
Three times the size.
Anyone who's ever worked at a firm knows when markets get sloppy,
who do you call?
You call the fixed income guys.
You say, what's going on in your neighborhood?
They go through the Chinese wallet firms because they're worried.
Getting comfortable with Bitcoin and alts
when they're not moving
is not the time to get comfortable.
You want to be in uncomfortable things.
So when you have an edge,
you can run over your enemies and drink their tears.
But here we have enemies in the lunatics
who believe that it is possible to have inflation
under AI. Fundamentally, you can't. That's number one. But number two, using quantum finance,
high volatility is inflationary. Low volatility is deflationary. A high NASDAQ is inflationary on the way up. It's massively deflationary on the way down.
Go back to 1929.
We got the Great Depression from falling stocks.
Go back to 2000.
We had an 83.6% decline in the NASDAQ,
a 90% decline in the XLK,
the greatest year of all time for housing in 2002,
and a pishikok, a little one-tenth of a percent contraction.
And go look at GFC.
You had 7.7% of inflation disappear over 13 months.
Falling stocks produce falling inflation.
And the yield curve, they're flattening globally.
The 210s was the miracle on the way to 100. I have a chart. I'll put it up. I commit to you
the next time. Or if I get off and someone else speaks, I'll put it up. It is showing you a
decades-long curve for the 210.
We're nowhere near the highs, and we can't go near the highs because mortgage rates are so low.
In fact, mortgage rates even fell today,
despite this tariff defeat, so to speak,
which Trump went out and said,
okay, we're going to 10 globally from 15.
So you already got 10 of the 15,
and they said, we'll work to get the rest.
It's an uncertainty that's out of the way.
It's not good for higher rates.
It's bad for higher rates.
When you see these private credit blowing up,
what is that telling you?
The private credit blowing up is telling you
that people would rather have treasuries
than these lower rated things like the AI data centers.
And when the guy from Blue Owl tells you, oh, everything's fine.
We're giving people more money than they want.
We're giving them 30 instead of the five.
What did the market do after that?
after that. The market sold off 7 more percent. Folks, there will be a deterioration in institutional
The market sold off seven more percent.
allocation to tech coming in the next month and two and three because they have monthly meetings.
These people are politicians on these controllers and these money.
They don't make any investment decisions.
They have consultants, and they say,
Sir or Madam, we've had a deterioration in our tech.
Should we lower 1% and move it to a sector that's working?
And they rubber stamp it 99.9% of the time.
So right now we're having deck chairs in the Titanic
intersector, but you are seeing utilities had an all-time high close. We had had
weakness for 30 years in this stuff.
for 30 years in this stuff.
Last week, we had the highs in XLU and XLP,
highest monthly close ever.
XLV was within...
XLV was in three cents.
So, yes, I understand within um uh xlv was in three cents so yes i understand they don't have crazy momentum because they have very low volatility people are selling their calls
and they're selling microsoft puts people are buying their puts on staples and buying calls on
on tech
this makes no sense
it's rear view mirror looking
when you see bond
yields falling
it's already over
the bond is a toy, there's no supply
we had the greatest bond auction
of all time.
Last week, because, was it last week?
Yeah, it was last week.
The dealers only took less than 6%.
There's natural demand to buy all this stuff.
But the 10-year note, we're at 408.5. People think it's going up,
six. And they've all been wrong. And all of my listeners, we've all been right,
that lower rates are going to be associated with higher growth, not the other way around,
for two factors. Number one, lower rates means lower interest expense, and two, that means a lower deficit,
and two, in America, 75% of our money,
our credit, doesn't come from the bank anymore.
The rest of the world, it does.
The United States, we're down at 25%.
So you have a president,
whether you hate him or you hate him a lot,
that's what we like to say,
whether you like him or you don't like him, don't let your emotions affect your investments. We have a president who
says, I don't want to be impeached, so I'm going to drive mortgage rates down. So I just tapped
$400 billion in Fannie and Freddie to each. I'm going to get mortgage rates down. They have a lot of other tools in their toolbox.
The base case that we have is that they want to wait
until May 15th because they're worried
that Powell will Trump-proof the Treasury,
announcing they want to sell more mortgages.
You've got falling rates all around the world,
and the Fed has governors more than two,
possibly more than three,
that want to hike rates now.
Now, these people are insane,
and they're filled with hate.
The two-year yield is below the policy rate.
Do you know what would happen to the dollar
if these psychotic people height rates? The dollar
would start screaming before it was ready. It would be disruptive and would break the house of cards
of tech, melt it down, and then cause mortgage rates to collapse. So they don't even know what
they're doing, these people. But please, as the gentleman said, watch what's working, exit your comfort zone, study in other areas, and find asymmetry.
When you have people and you're in a sector like Staples and the garbage names are coming off the ground,
it's telling you nobody's got the guts to short garbage and when you don't have the guts to short
it's telling you nobody's got the guts to short garbage.
garbage or institutions don't have the guts to fund in garbage what direction is it when you have
the biggest going up and the fastest going faster that's a state a sector getting more capital and we're in a unique place
where
tech and
comm and Amazon
and we never short Tesla
because we love Elon
we're not telling you to buy or sell
but if you take
comm, XLC, XLK
and Amazon
you'll see it's underperforming.
There's no way to argue about that.
Praying that that's going to stop after the market's more overvalued than at any time in history,
I think is enormous mistake.
So I'm trying to imagine a world where people will just measure the dollar value change
or the percentage change in the total value of a sector every single week.
Five minutes.
And then look, that's where money is flowing.
it's no more complicated than that and when you're just looking with an og that's down 50
It's no more complicated than that.
bitcoin 63k is down 50 and you're losing your volatility because falling price and falling
volatility if they're coincident that's telling you something You can have falling volatility while prices are rising
because it's in a massive,
you know, undervalued situation.
And that's what happened in Bitcoin
from its genesis
until October 6th,
2025,
126,272.
We were able to be short just before it
because Bitcoin denominated in its own volatility
peaked 18 days prior.
Two weeks for us is a good, you know, two sequential weeks.
You can make a transition off of that.
But right now, every time we go up in Staples,
they just sell the calls.
They just say, oh, it's's free money there's no risk here
well i can tell you something folks put on your calendar may 11th may 11th is essentially the
anniversary of the price suppression of trump's spoof in liberation day tariffs where he just
where he just said 145,
and then you could call it a taco or a tactical, whichever.
Then he stopped.
That was a factor.
We didn't see Bitcoin going lower faster than the NASDAQ.
So he said, why would we short Bitcoin
when it's not going down faster than NASDAQ?
So at 429, just look in my highlights, 429,
on April 7th, we covered.
It was
75091.95.
We're losing volatility.
When do you want to be involved?
We asked people to take a look
under their own accord.
In silver volatility, it was rising as Bitcoin
and we got into the silver long trade
before it happened in the silver long volatility trade that stuff is yesterday's news folks
this money to be made in silver and gold a lot of volatility they're very very elevated
it's going to trade around you had an eight percent day today it's going to be plenty of
time trump helps it helps it when he says i'm going to war but year- had an 8% day today. It's going to be plenty of time. Trump helps it when he says, I'm going to war.
But year-to-date MAG-7 is underperforming by 6.09%.
The software is slaughtered.
But software is the customer
of hardware
if your customer
is melting down
so Ralph Lauren
Ross and Williams
I have all three of those
I've talked about all three of those
because we like
biggest and fastest and when you have walmart
going up we sold some walmart in the 130s when it gets to the 140s 150s i'll sell more
and i'll buy smaller market caps in that area.
Because when Walmart's going up,
you can't cover your own short.
You just hurt yourself.
When Walmart's going up and you're short,
what you do is,
what I would do is I would buy things in the sector that are going up faster.
And we gang up on our enemies as a team.
That's what you do in Tuggo or in camp. That's what you do in markets. And when you could run
over the shorts in Bitcoin or the alts, it was fun. It was great. You made money. It's not working
that way anymore. The money that's fun. Wabi told you it's okay to look outside. Sandisk, he and I were both
speaking of it. And then the day, I remember the day he was getting a little soggy on it,
the next day it fell $110. Could you get any better freaking timing than that? $110?
Okay. It doesn't mean it's over.
It's high vol.
They're going to be up.
They're going to be down.
Sandisk is up $30 today, 5%.
Okay.
NVIDIA is up less than 1%.
Which do you like?
5 over 1.
Micron has been doing pretty well, too.
Same story.
And they will all get slaughtered.
They will all get slaughtered. They will all get slaughtered.
NVIDIA, denominated in SMH, is at a 20-month low.
People are trying to get out of NVIDIA,
and they're hiding their money, and they have to be in the SMH.
So I'm saying what Wabi just said is he highlighted some names okay that i'd been
talking about some of them just on activism because they're cheap and and and the money's
going to go into the sector but can you just look at the new highlights because i can tell you folks
on may 11th when we anniversary anniversary Trump's taco on the tariffs,
all that selling pressure on those prices were predicated on an economy that was going to crash
if you had the 145 tariffs. He pulled them, but he loaded everybody up, short stock and long
volatility. And when he taco'd, you reverse that. And on Aprilil 21 i did a podcast it's on apple and spotify
it's may 6th published but it's the sixth one it's calling for a prompt vega compression driven
fang rally it's the biggest rally since 1982 the biggest vault crush as well because the economy
wasn't going to go into the crapper because he pulled. But now the market's doing it on its own.
It's not him.
Rates are coming down.
You can't argue.
You could, but it wouldn't be factual.
You're seeing the 10-year getting ready to take out the four.
You're seeing mortgage rates at new lows.
You can't argue with the mortgages.
Remember, mortgages are $13 trillion,
and they have a very high spread right
now. Those spreads are going to tighten to treasuries. So if you're looking at treasuries,
you're actually looking at a spread. You're not even looking at the basis. You always want to
look at the basis. You want to look at the sun. You don't want to look at earth, and you certainly
don't want to look at the moon. The sun dominates our local gravity. It's going to dominate,
dominates our local gravity. It's going to dominate, your base is going to dominate your
price. So if you look at the new high list, folks, you used to have Bitcoin on the new high. You used
to have alts on the new high. Why not look at the new high list? And then on May 11th, you're going
to get some very juicy numbers on the new low list. You're going to have so many companies
because a lot of them have their new lows masked
by fake prices caused by a policy spoof.
It wasn't even a policy.
It was a spoof.
It was never intended to be serious.
He just wanted to get everybody short stocks
so that when they had to buy them back,
it would stabilize the market while he finished the negotiations.
When we get through May 11th, it's only April. let's see it's it's march april that's two months
the 11th today is the uh the 20th it's like uh 80 days in 80 days so already we're going to be
april 2nd is getting close but april 7th april 20 april 21 um you're talking about two months, where you're going to start to see an accelerating
number of companies hit the new lowest in tech. And as those numbers become realized,
institutions don't care about, you know, wiping away a spike down, a tail, a wick,
whatever you want to call it. But they will be moving out of tech into other things, and they
will make the equilibrium price lower and cause dealers who are short maximum gamma of all time,
they'll be dumping, dumping, dumping, dumping, dumping. So you have the chance to stay in front
of it. You have the chance to move over. Wabi gave you permission. I say that kind of tongue in cheek, but he's a navigator.
I'm a navigator.
My navigation goes across everything.
It goes across rates, commodities, currencies,
crypto, and derivatives on volatility,
skew, kurtosis, and the intermarket.
But you respect him.
You followed him for years.
Continue to do it.
He spontaneously said, I'm not feeling all the love.
Look at the stuff that's working.
That's what he says in so many words.
So do it.
But garbage companies going up is a sign that garbage companies are going up.
And you never want to be short a garbage company going up
those are the worst because that means that someone's buying it for a reason
and it doesn't matter that it's garbage maybe they're going to be activists maybe it's going
to be taken over you know just don't only do one thing you're're young. An old dog can't learn new tricks.
You're young.
Go where the money's going.
And don't let them lie to you that rates are going up.
I've been saying they're going down
and will continue to go down
and they won't stop going down.
And we got a new low rate on the mortgage
for three plus years today.
And nobody in the world other than this space
or my own will allow you to hear these facts. They mute that. for three plus years today and nobody in the world other than this space
or my own will allow you to hear these facts they mute that they don't want you to know there's another way the price of mortgage are going up and the problem is when they go up a little more
they'll start to speed up it's a mechanical thing because $13 trillion worth of mortgages are
run by people who don't believe they can speed up. So we're going to run over them and drink the
tears of the whole mortgage community. I know directly or indirectly the positioning and the
strategy and the prepayment model of over a trillion dollars of mortgages.
No, but dear point, he's all over the internet.
He's in that space.
He'll confirm.
They're all ready for a steepener.
All of them.
He won't listen to me.
We got to 59 and handle on the 210.
Below the April 7th. We are going to get anniversary fails across an ocean of things. Can't you go to a fail
and run over your enemy with your capital, not be somebody else's whale exit? Please, I beg of you,
I'll promote myself. Follow me and listen. You follow Wabi, follow me and listen. He is saying many of the same things that I am saying.
Different words.
But I want you to make money and give charity and loans to your family and your community.
You can't do it if you throw the money away looking in the rearview mirror
and crashing your car and losing your bags.
There are so many.
The new high list is God's gift to investing.
You don't have to go all in.
You get to calibrate.
But three of the names,
I just saw it crossing on the tape.
William Sonoma spent a year consolidating
after it was thrown into the S&P 500, new high.
Ross stores, very well run store, okay, for working class people who talk about the K economy. Folks,
we're going to have a special K economy led by the working class with lower gasoline,
lower mortgage rates, lower rents. What is that telling you?
And then I forget what that third one was.
So please just watch what's working.
Give a little of your coin,
a little of your bag to what's working.
You get a great pullback at Walmart.
I'm a natural seller at higher levels because I'm using it to buy things in its space that people will have to buy
to cover their underweight in the space. I was asked on the Mario show by one of the hosts,
Walmart looks a little expensive at 25 times earnings. Don't you think? I said,
at 100 times earnings, I'll be nervous about Walmart. Rates are going
lower. If Spaghetti Rigetti can trade at infinity, if Palantir can trade at 600,
why can't a non-cyclical trade at 100 in a decelerating global economy is evidenced by
lower rates and lower deficits from the lower rates. If you took all rates back to zero,
which is where they're going,
and in many places negative,
like Switzerland and Europe eventually,
you're not going to have your deficits.
You'll have a flatter curve, less economic activity.
So please, everyone, allow Wabi to enter your brain brain you're here to listen to him you will not get
virtually anybody else in the crypto space maybe ben cowan a little articulating you're allowed to
go away from crypto and do some trad fi when trad fi is expressing its strength on longs and its weakness on shorts,
and use your skills at leverage and observation
to confirm sustainment of those price trends.
Thank you for the time.
No screaming.
The doctor doesn't like it.
Well, that was pretty good, man.
Thanks, David.
Oh, and everyone should be reposting the space,
and when I come on, I say to people, join us.
Don't bag hold your friends.
Make sure everyone who follows you gets access to this information.
Wabi is one of the rare symmetric information.
He's not a paid bot that says long only to the moon
or an actual b-o-t you know
not a b-o-u-g-h-t or a b-o-t he lets you hear both sides if you would allow yourself to listen
you'd make money you wouldn't be a bag holder so help him out help other people out promote
okay thanks man thanks david small caps i send you an invite to speak as well
chad how are you doing man yeah it was great i was just listening to david for like the last half
hour really really smart guy uh it was a lot of fun chad are you i love that you heard your name
your ears no no you gotta listen wabi's a follow i'm a follow you've never
heard this you've never heard anybody talk about bonds you never heard anybody talk about staples
and now they're the hottest sector as donald trump says we're the hottest country i can't do it well
it's the hottest sector utilities all-time high do you really want to fade or underweight those
things come on it's all right your capital needs to be loved and and cherished not thrown away and high. Do you really want to fade or underweight those things? Come on. It's alright.
Your capital needs to be loved and cherished,
not thrown away and burned on ego and yesterday's
news.
Yeah, a lot of the
volatility that all coin traders
like, that's actually moved over
to equities for the time being.
You're seeing things like
the recovery in sandisk
even if it is just a shoulder or maybe it makes a smart a slight higher high um i'd rather just be
in something like uh like um oh it's a beautiful chart lobby yeah yeah yeah we were talking about
that name since it was trading at like 100 150 months ago i actually found sandisk
because of someone in crypto this was back in like early november or something like that and um i
think it was ceo it's the guy with the it's the asian guy he has a cat pfp that has like a yellow jacket and he's like there's an entire um ball run in ai hardware
and trad fi and nobody on ct seems to care and that's kind of when i um started looking at it
um because before then i was looking at amd because amd had that uh from OpenAI, and you also had Intel strike that deal a bit prior, before that.
And then this beta name was rallying,
and SanDisk has been around for a while.
And you now have high-cap,
or rather what people think of high cap in crypto, right?
Like you look at stuff like Solana trading at 60 bill market cap or whatever it's at right now.
And you would think in crypto terms, oh, there's no way I can get returns on this.
But in the equity markets, that is good volatility because you have people with real liquidity shoving it into this thing and it actually moves like a low cap altcoin did many, many years ago.
So, you know, with that being said, I think a lot of crypto traders have moved over to equities and they're using things like Hyperliquid to do these things.
And there's actual volume it's actually usable so especially metals right especially metals that's the that's what
everyone loves they're all everyone's a silver expert now yeah i think i think crypto has to
take some time um to heal uh i think the biggest death blow to the market was the trump meme coin and
usually when these things blow people up in the market it takes about a year and a half
um so i think i think the summer is going to be a good time to be long crypto
um it always is even if the market is trending towards the downside of the summertime.
If you look, Cheds, going into Q3, going into the final innings of Q2, going into Q3,
that's usually when you could position for a nice summer rally.
Happened last year, the year before that, the year before that, the year before that,
the year before that. You can go all the way back 10 years ago to 2016, and there's always
a nice summer rally, even in the equity market. So I think, you know, let this whole geopolitical
stuff go on. I think this new Fed share is going to spook the market to the downside.
gonna spook the market um to the downside truth be told i actually think a lot of the flows
in the market um they usually like to lean more democratic than republican
um that's something that a lot a lot of people aren't um comfortable with and and i voted trump
but i i know that like usually under a democratic more more left leaning regime, markets are a lot easier to the upside.
They're a lot. It's a it's a cleaner chart. It's a cleaner trend, whether it's Republican like Republican regimes.
It's a lot more volatility, a lot more chop, a lot more uncertainty and all that stuff.
a lot more uncertainty and all that stuff.
So I think early case, crypto has a nice summer,
but I think the real thing to get over is the midterms.
Base case is Democrats win and the market just takes a final plunge
and then it's just up only from there.
Yeah, and I actually think, Cheds, that like the next market peak, takes the final plunge and then it's just up only from there. Yeah.
And I actually think, Chuds, that like the next market peak, like the next big peak,
like what we had with $126K happens going into the Bitcoin halving.
Yeah.
And that's just off the premise that like, you know, we have a reality TV tv show administration they like to market everything and
i think everyone and their mom is going to know about the bitcoin having and that's going to lead
to a pretty big drop um yeah a lot of volatility basically a lot of a lot of volatility i mean that
are we hoping we're just hoping there's volatility right because like yeah you know yeah and based off of previous data that's like that's like all we've got right
what are your thoughts on like the trump meme coin man do you think they're gonna like
like ruin the market i mean it definitely was like timed with like the top of the market i
mean the ruined the market i mean like i don't know it's kill or be killed at wild wild west so like ruined i mean like it's like people try to make money and like
whatever's left afterwards left over like those guys got an office they did a bunch of things and
then they extracted and like it's been that's been unfortunately the name of the game is like bad
actors have extracted in retail like since i've been involved
in crypto since 2017. it's just like always been that way and it's not altruistic it's not kumbaya
it's just absolute massacre and if you survive maybe you can make some money and so they just
followed along right and so i feel like it's always been dirty game i just think they're just
playing the game that was there before them do you know what i'm saying wabi yeah it's always been dirty game. I just think they're just playing the game that was there before them. Do you know what I'm saying, Wabi?
Yeah, it's like when SBF would use Alameda accounts to just liquidate everyone to the downside
and then just run it back up to new highs in two days.
I don't know, man.
I just, I don't know.
I don't know. I hope he become cool again, right? I mean, I don't know. I don't know. I hope he, I hope he become cool again.
Right. I mean, I was listening to that last guy. He's really smart. And like, you know,
I'm a big dummy on like bonds and yields and like coupons. And he said a lot of stuff I didn't
understand about 99% of it, but I feel like that's really interesting. He talked about like the lack
of volatility in Bitcoin. So there's like a lack of action here, right? If you're going with your
buddies to the club and you want to know what club to go to you're you're looking
in the window where you know where are the ladies and is it a full room or is it empty you know what
i mean you know those places they hold the line outside to make it seem like it's busy and then
you get inside and there's like nothing going on and so unfortunately that's been the kind of the
the the case here you've had these pumps
start and just fizzle out with no follow-through so i'm hoping we become cool again i don't have
any insights about when it's going to happen i mean maybe you're right like we get a nice move
out at the end of the summer everyone comes back from vacation that's always an interesting time
um but maybe we also probably bought them we don don't bought them till, till October, November anyway, like historically.
So, um, I hope it gets better soon.
I just, I don't have any like reason to believe it will in the near term.
Unfortunately.
What are you doing during this time?
Judds?
I got a lot of stuff.
I got a lot of stuff going on.
I'm doing stuff.
I'm working on, um on a graduate degree, right?
I'm studying for CMT2.
I've been working on like a massive educational library, like trading education.
I've been doing the trading encyclopedia series, which is basically a 500 part video series
on YouTube.
And I've done about 300 of them, like, you know, three minutes per like trading topic.
Like what's an ascending triangle? What's a, what's a prop bid, you know, like every pattern uh per like trading topic like what's an ascending triangle what's a
what's a prop bid you know like every pattern every like trading concepts that's what i've
been doing is just like grinding out like the educational stuff that i know that is like
timeless um and i can feel good about like creating value you know so that's kind of
what i've been focused on, I guess.
More interviews, trying to interview smart people, but my fitness, my health, my life as well.
And a lot of snow recently too.
So fuck that.
Dana, what have you been doing to keep yourself busy, man?
You know, I kind of echo what Ched's is saying about the educational stuff and really the bear markets for building.
I mean, I think, you know, I know you've heard that time and time again, but it's true.
I mean, if you can do something that's productive, whether it's creating educational content, whether it's growing your social media profiles, whether it's studying up on, you know, bond stables, the macro environment, geopolitical environment, becoming smarter so you're ready.
Like at the end of the day, it's just for studying.
And that's what I've been doing a lot.
And I've been, again, trying to learn more,
look at patterns in the past, historical patterns,
and trying to make sense of what's going on in the market
and kind of help predict what's going to happen afterwards.
But yeah, basically the same thing, right?
Just trying to grow my social media profile,
become smarter, take advantage of the opportunities
in the market with AI and these other products as well. And again, you just kind of go where
the attention is at and where the liquidity is at. And right now, crypto is, again, kind of just
underperforming, not really getting that attention just yet. But I do think we'll have a little
relief rally soon. But I echo what Chad says as well. I think October, I mean, historically one
year after the top, right, that's when it marks the bottom. I've seen some people say August. Again, it's really going to determine what happens after Warsh gets into office. And if he immediately cuts rates, if he's waiting for QE to control inflation instead. I mean, there's all kinds of things that he could do, but I agree that he is seen in a negative light. He's seen as hawkish. And so it really just depends on how
the market is around that time. And, you know, what's going on with tariffs, what's going on
with the Iran tensions, what's going on with Russia, Ukraine. I mean, all these other unknowns
in the market. I mean, it's going to be, I think, a lot more clarity in three months, four months,
and then we'll see what happens afterwards.
But yeah, I'm just using it to build myself up,
take advantage of opportunities where I can,
but not overextending myself and trading
when there's nothing there, right?
Obviously waiting for indicators,
SR lines to line up for the best risk reward
and then just taking those trades.
And if not, then just being patient.
Were you US Air Force, sir?
Is that you?
That was me. Yeah, I was in for almost eight years. Were you U.S. Air Force, sir? Is that you? That was me.
Yeah, I was in for almost eight years.
Thank you for your service.
Appreciate it.
Yeah.
Man, so this Warsh guy,
I'm kind of looking at him as Elon
when he was doing Doge.
You remember that data?
Might be the same thing, and markets don't like that. Yeah. Oh doing doge you remember that data might be the same thing and markets don't
like that yeah oh yeah i remember that one clearly it's uh right i mean people hate uncertainty and
people thought that whoever trump nominated to be the new fed chair was going to be bullish they
thought oh yeah they're gonna you know cut rates they're gonna start qe you know we're gonna start
old season and everything's gonna be good but that wasn't necessarily the case. And when people saw that, it completely
turned everything on its head. And we saw the negative effect. I mean, yes, it was delayed by
about five days or so after the guy was nominated. Then people realized, okay, maybe he's more hawkish
than we thought. And then we saw the market take a downturn. But I think that, again, it's just one
of those things where you just got to hope that obviously he still knows what he's doing.
Right. So just like when people initially didn't like Powell, I mean, he still was somewhat trying to control the market.
So I think it's just going to be a lot of back and forth and we'll really have more of an idea of what he's doing after he gets in.
Yeah, Powell came in in 2018, man, during that bear market.
Oh, boy.
I think Warsh, he's like Elon, like reducing spending, taking off the balance sheet, not
emphasis on expanding the balance sheet and all that stuff.
So it's like maybe we have a little echo bubble,
an echo bubble tariff downturn.
So rather than like a 22% to 25% decline on indices,
maybe it's only 12% to 15% off the high,
wherever it tops out soon or if it's just topped out right now.
Because the Qs have been in a range for
months now man that that's shocking the queues in a range over the last few years that's you look at
the last few years of price action i don't think the queues have ever been in a distribution range
for this long you're talking about almost five months at this point, man.
It's insane. It really is. And it's probably the one index
to look at. But
it is Friday, guys. If anyone from the audience wants to come up,
give your thoughts on the market, or ask any questions,
you can click the spaces
tab and once you guys do that there should be a mic to the bottom left you
get hit that request button I'll bring you right on up
Chaz is there anything else that you want to say before I bring some people
up you sound like you're outside you walking around yeah I'm outside my
balcony right now yes I am what am. What's the view?
Give us a visual.
What's it look like for you?
A forest.
Yeah?
Yeah, I have to get some sun.
I was sick yesterday.
Yeah.
And that's usually how I just get better.
Yeah.
I have to get sun because if you don't get sun, you get depressed.
Dude, you've got to get some sun, people even if especially in for your front of a computer
You got to just push yourself outside
You know
Yeah, you you have to
yeah, if you
Have like if you're an entrepreneur like you don't really have a set schedule. Yeah, and there are a lot of entrepreneurs that i know that they're in this rhythm of being a nocturnal like they go to sleep they literally
go to sleep between 7 to 9 a.m and then they wake up at 6 p.m and they don't see the sun and then
they wonder why yeah they have anxiety why they have feelings of depression and sadness.
And it's because you're going against your biological framework,
which is, number one, you need to have a goal.
Because before, like, we were hunters, right?
We weren't meant to be.
We were scavengers before we were hunters.
Scavengers, yes, yes.
Like, we had a mission.
But now it's like, instead of missions, we yeah like what is that a task you know that's why i'm a huge advocate like if you're
in tech do you have to do something if you're able-bodied you have to do something with your
body whether it's lifting yes whether it's aesthetics whether it's a sport you need to
do something do some push-ups man man. Get your blood flowing, right?
Yeah.
Otherwise, you're just going to be a sad, mopey individual with low testosterone.
Yeah.
And I'm a huge advocate for TRT.
If you have low tests, do some TRT, man.
Or hop on roids, to be honest.
honest um you'll feel great you'll feel tremendous i'd rather be i'd rather be in my 50s and 60s on
You'll feel great.
You'll feel tremendous.
roids than just be some like dude with low t and barely managing to scrape on by and all that stuff
bro you're describing me to a t there i'm just kidding
what do you like the liver king are you the liver king that guy
like eats the raw meat he's like no i'm not i'm not i mean i i i'm hispanic so i eat yeah hispanic
food so yeah my diet usually consists of uh bison jasmine rice, potatoes, beans, my protein shakes, tomatoes, cilantro, green onions, sweet
onions, skier, chia seeds, goji berries, strawberries, blueberries, blackberries,
blackberries, bananas, honey, lots of water, ice cream, pizza, tortillas, naan, ground beef,
ground turkey, eggs, avocado oil, salt, pasta, butter, some sour cream here and there.
That's all Hispanic or is what?
I thought that was everything.
No, no, I'm just giving like a small morsel of what I usually consume on a daily basis.
You must be huge if you eat all that stuff.
Something like that, man.
There you go.
There you go there you go but um yeah if you don't get sun like
you will experience a lack of quality with how you feel and a lot of people unfortunately they're
they're governed by their feelings you know like i've been told that I'm super melancholic,
at least like in person, right?
Melancholic, how it seems like I don't have emotions.
And the moment I do show emotion, it's like,
ah, I'm not used to seeing this guy with emotion.
He must be so emotional, right?
Yeah.
But I guess the sun helps you remain stoic,
is what I would say.
Controlled, right?
A master of your own environment.
That's what a man should strive to do, be a master of your own environment.
There you go.
We also just need that vitamin D. And the sun is also what's called a zeitgeeker, which is a timekeeper,
which has to do with, like, your natural circadian rhythm.
So you just, like, got to get sun or you just get into like a crazy schedule. And then also people
like you got to find a way to just be around other humans and just be reminded that like,
we're still in this like community thing together. And like, that's also super important,
like a class or even like going to the grocery store and just talking to the same people who
work there.
Just,
I mean,
that sounds crazy,
but just like people interaction is super important.
Yeah.
I see where you're coming from,
man.
I have periods where I just don't talk to anyone.
Yeah.
In person.
I don't,
I just give a fist bump or I wave.
Yeah.
I'm the opposite. I'm like chatty.
I want to know all about you.
Everyone's different.
I've got my seasons, man.
The social battery
is a real thing.
But yeah, man, thanks for coming on the show.
All right, bro.
Data, thanks for coming on.
David, thanks for coming on.
Thank you, guys.
Ladies and gentlemen, this is your first time tuning in and you've enjoyed the content you've enjoyed the stream over the last
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