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Market Talk- BIG WEEK INCOMING FOR CRYPTO AND STOCKS?! NEW HIGHS?!
Recorded: March 6, 2026 Duration: 2:05:43Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you A little stranger of little orange just when it's dark.
Feel of the dark.
Feel of the dark.
I have a constant fear that something's always near.
Feel of the dark.
Feel of the dark. I feel I'm the dark.
I have a phobia that someone's always there. I'm not a fan of the world. Yeah! Sometimes when you stay to take a look
And the color of the blue
And the something's watching you
Fear of the dark
Fear of the dark
And the time that fear
Something's always there
Fear of the dark
Fear of the dark And the time that someone's always there Here I am And as you look at the mountain base, go find it, and look at it I can't feel that someone's there
Here I'm a dog, here I'm a dog I gotta stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and stop and Oh my god, that's so awesome!
Let's dance! Okay. Thank you. Music so Thank you. Fear the day!
Fear the day!
Fear the day!
Fear the day!
Fear the day! Oh, yeah. That's it! Fear of the death! I have a trust and fear that something's always there! Fear of the death!
Fear of the death!
I have a trust and fear that something's always there!
Fear of the death!
I have a trust and fear that something's always there!
Fear of the death!
Fear of the dark
Fear of the dark
Oh man, that's the fear that something's always there Oh, yeah?
Okay. yo what's going on dv fam welcome welcome happy friday or happy saturday depending on where you
are in the world once again we have some incredible volatility in these markets
and uh the s p 500 has made new year-to-date lows.
The Qs are very close to doing so.
And crypto has pulled back.
And we'll see what happens. Will crypto maintain this tight range?
I mean, if we actually do start testing 60K, I would not doubt that there is a potential for 55k 58k to be hit and um i don't really think
most majors are gonna like that but we are seeing some uh incredible price action on chain man we
have some tickers um reaching close to 100 mil some of them them being AI tokens on base of all things.
And I do think perhaps we could be in a similar situation to last March, right?
As equity markets were getting ready to face some huge downside, there were some opportunities
in the crypto market that did benefit those that
positioned long some of them being KTA some of them being for coin I think SPX 6900 also bottomed
out in March of last year and ended up going into price discovery albeit a new marginal high, it still was an all-time high.
We also have NVIDIA close to retesting its year-to-date low.
And of all things, I'm just grateful that volatility is one thing that just has not left the market.
It would actually be not so good if the market just did nothing after uh that february 5th low and um
stocks are absolutely insane right now man whether you're uh whether you're a long only trader short
only trader you're a scalper this thing has been heaven really um especially those that have played commodities over the last year.
Last year we had gold and silver, and now we have oil up another 10-plus percent today.
We've been discussing oil a bit quite often on the show over the last week or so.
over the last week or so and you know we also have um some of our guys like prometheus um
positioning in uh things like exxon and some of these other energy companies well before oil
started ramping up so there's always a bull market somewhere and um if you're in the crypto market
then at this point i think you know if you've been here over the last i would say at least like two three years you'll know that there are other markets to play
if you don't want to play um the small opportunities that there are on chain
um because it's it's not a lot to be honest and the ceilings are sort of capped right now and there's just not that much liquidity in the market to take prices to
300 to 500 mil market cap as we saw last year and the year before that here in crypto but for now
for those that are in crypto you guys can go on hyperliquid and play some commodities. We saw a ton of volume surging to hyper liquid
last weekend after markets closed and you had a bunch of people trading oil. And I think
that's just one of the base cases for something like a hyper liquid is that you'll be able
to trade stocks and commodities 24 seven in position for them before the market opens.
That's the real futures market.
It's hyperliquid.
And if you see a growing trend in people participating in markets overall and not just crypto, then hyperliquid is probably one of the best things to do.
probably one of the best things to do. And I do believe that a lot of the price action that we
saw in gold and silver is probably due to crypto bros moving over their assets to hyperliquid and
just buying a ton of these commodities. But what we're seeing in oil, I do see a lot of people
yap about tops, tops this, top that and and it comes from the same crowd that
we're saying the same thing about gold and silver and i sure shit was one of them in the past and so
you kind of want to respect strength for what it is and right now oil has basically its wind behind
its sails and people are getting too far ahead of their skis to try to position short for something.
When we've talked about this over the last week, two weeks, where if there's a war going on and you're positioned in markets,
the first thing that rallies more aggressively than anything else is oil.
anything else is oil. And we saw that in 2022. And after oil relaxes a little bit, then you
typically have these small periods of risk on. But we'll see if the S&P actually did bottom out.
I think perhaps this could be a bear trap and you end up having that marginal high that we saw last
year, test 71 to 7,300, and then you start gap down but i think um i think this war would have
to end honestly we're seeing some um we're seeing some insane stuff from the white house being
posted um call of duty montages anime montages alluding that to war and it seems like market participants just do not like that shit and they
um just dump some of their assets because they're trying to price in the worst and um
i really don't know how long this is going to last but there are some people that think that
this is going to end as early as next week some people are saying by the summertime six months out from uh from the
midterm so we'll see how all of this goes it's a great market if you're a scalper if you're a
trader whether you're whether you're to the long side whether to the downside there's um
plenty of opportunity i think that's the one thing to to be grateful for. But I think the one thing that's honestly like a max long here with size
is probably oil.
But the good chunk of that trade off of the initial move
is probably a little bit done.
It does seem a little bit overheated,
but oil is in a bull market.
Oil is in a bull market. Oil is in a bull market.
And people say that perps are the biggest generator of wealth.
They're the best instrument to generate wealth.
I would beg to differ and say that it's actually the options market.
The options market is the greatest instrument of wealth creation and wealth destruction.
The options market is the greatest instrument of wealth creation and wealth destruction.
And it's kind of crazy how the crypto market doesn't really have a token to position for options growth, at least to my knowledge.
And if it is, I would assume that it's not really a good market with a ton of volume.
I don't think Deribit has a token.
And I do think there's an Ethereum platform.
There's a platform built on ETH that is built around options,
but I don't really think people use it.
I think the primary product for crypto when it comes to options is Deribit.
for crypto when it comes to options um is darabit and it's quite unfortunate because
as perpetuals grow so will the options market once people get a taste of perps they're going
to want to go into options and that's just fact hopefully at some point hyper liquid does add options
um but i do think they would need even even more volume but i think that could take hype to 200
300 per token if they actually do capture um options but perhaps coinbase will be um
will be a platform to offer options.
And really, that's why I really like Hood, to be honest, because they have options.
They have crypto.
They have stocks.
They have commodities.
And at some point, I do think platforms like Robinhood
will offer Hyperliquid some competition.
That's why I think for my approach, I think just having long term bags and things like a hood or
a hype is beneficial if you're looking like five, 10 years out. But in crypto terms, five to 10
years is actually like two years, three years at best, because anything can happen.
Anything can happen after huge price surges.
Products in crypto usually change fundamentally.
We saw that with Ethereum.
You saw a huge run during COVID and the run before that.
And then everyone thought that everything
was gonna be built on Ethereum,
stablecoin rails and all of that.
And the ETH Foundation just ruthlessly dumped against any positive flows that ETH got.
For every positive net buyer in the ETH ETF,
there was a net seller from the Ethereum Foundation
and all the other ETH whales and all that stuff.
So that's the thing with these products.
Once you reach exponential growth, a lot of the early people that contributed to that growth end up leaving.
And we even saw this with Bitcoin late last year, earlier this year.
You had a lot of quote-unquote Genesis whales just dump their BTC.
They rode it from a couple of bucks to over 50 grand, and that's a pretty good trade.
And we had Naka here yesterday saying there will be some people that, you know, they get into these assets insanely early,
and once they sell, they just never come back.
And you can't blame them if you know someone that bought Solana
under a dollar
under five dollars and you know that they sold at over 200 bucks the likelihood of them
repurchasing soul is
How about we very minimal they probably went to the equity markets and got some Nvidia
They probably got some qqq for the long term. They probably went to the equity markets and got some NVIDIA. They probably got some QQQ for the long term. They probably bought some commodities. They probably want to
be a commodities chat, and you can't really blame them. There's not really many altcoins
that you can position in for the long term and all coins are in fact very cyclical and
once you see btc in a higher time frame downtrend the likelihood of these alts maintaining their
levels is very very very minimal and it's not really cute to go through drawdown i understand
some people fantasize and they glorify the dopamine rush of losing money or round tripping
a ton of gains that they made in the cycle. But there are there, believe it or not, there are a
small percentage of people that just don't want to go through that shit. But that's kind of my
opening rant for today, boys. I don't really think today is going to be a long show.
I think next week is going to be a massive week, a massive volatile week,
especially with this close that we had in the equity markets.
And just the reaction that Bitcoin had once it made that marginal local high at 74K a couple of days ago.
And now we're seeing a pullback and
you have to wonder is this going to be a lower high that's set maybe we gap a little bit down
towards the april 2021 high at 64k and that ends up being our lower high before we gap up
so i would say 76k which is is our April lows of last year,
76 to 82K right around there, and then we make new lows,
or are we just going to fuck around until we make new lows
and just ping-pong between 60 to 71K, just as we did after we tried breaking out of 98
and failed to do so and we
arranged for a few weeks and then we just broke down a kingdom come where the
sun doesn't shine at 60k and we saw Solana retest not retest but make new
loads at $67 that's one thing to ask yourself but anyways I'll go ahead and
bring up Matt but anyways guys I did add a new song to start up the show.
I'm kind of looking for a new playlist to start up these shows, really.
I'm kind of tired playing the same two songs.
I play Atlas Rise by Metallica and then Push It to the Limit, which is the song that plays in the movie Scarface and also Metallica's One.
So I'm trying to move from that, like, divorced dad music to something else.
And hopefully you guys enjoyed the song.
It was Afraid of the dark by iron maiden
but anyways guys before we get started we're gonna go ahead and yap for like a good hour
so maybe like 45 minutes i don't want to take too much time so you guys can go on ahead and uh
join your weekend buddies and have fun but anyways if, if you guys can go ahead, show some love to the stream, show some love to the show.
Best way to do that, guys, is by clicking the spaces tab.
But once you guys do that, right up above our profile pictures, you'll see that nice link that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
If you guys can go ahead, hit up the like button, smash up the repost button.
Does a number of things, guys.
Brings more people in here.
Brings more brand awareness.
And who knows, maybe some of your favorite crypto folk and traders that you guys follow here on X will pop up in the crowd.
pop up in the crowd and they'll come up and speak and talk some shop.
And they'll come up and speak and talk some shop.
And as always, guys, on Fridays, I do like to have some of the community come on up and talk some shop.
So if you're an individual that's listened to Market Talk for a while and you want to talk some shop,
give your thoughts on the market or ask any specific questions to anyone up here on the panel.
Feel free to do so, guys.
Best way to get up here on the stage is also by clicking the spaces tab and
then uh you're gonna see a little mic button to the bottom left that says request hit the mic
button and um i'll bring you up but i'll start off with matt i guess since he has his hand up
matt what's going on bro what are your thoughts on uh this close we also had uh I forgot to mention, we had an unemployment read. I think we gapped up from 4.3% to 4.4%.
Yeah, that's nasty.
Unemployment is probably a trend that's up and to the right.
With the rise of AI, it's just going to be something that's up and to the right.
right and ai will cause ubi if ai is going to be a method where companies don't really pay
And AI will cause UBI.
as much for them as they would for workforce and that productivity at some point will go off into
the economy whether they're taxed more or whatever the hell it is some of that growth will be put out into the economy in some form or fashion.
That's just my dubious take.
But how are you, Matt?
What are your thoughts on the clothes and this unemployment reading?
And my God, man.
Oil.
Some people should not own dogs.
Some people should not own dogs, bro.
Some people should not own dogs.
What's that about? Like they have some, like, like, you know, when people walk their dogs,
they just look at their phone and they don't actually like,
look after their dog and their dog is going crazy. You know what I mean?
It's trying to move and it's just getting strangled over and over and over
again. It's trying to, like,
it's actually trying to move and the owner is just like pulling on the leash staring at their phone it's like are you even
human dude it's awful my goodness man let me tell you but anyways yeah go on ahead bro so
this was tough this was a rough week we've got geopolitics that's fucking with the market. You've got
poor jobs data. And you also had a kind of a, I don't want to say a lackluster earnings season,
but it was a little below our five-year and 10-year trend. So let me just touch real quick with earnings. Usually 75% of the S&P 500 beats earnings.
So three out of four companies, we came in at 72%, 73%.
That's below our five-year average.
That's below our 10-year average.
So that's number one.
So, okay, not great.
Earnings were a little softer than we're historically used to. Now you add in
the labor market. We officially, I'll share it up in the nest, but this wasn't about today's
rise in unemployment. This wasn't about the negative 90%, excuse me, the negative 90,000 jobs
in February. This is actually, if we zoom out, let me share it real fast. All right,
it should appear in the nest. If we zoom out, the US has slipped from growth to no growth
to negative jobs growth year over year. That's the big problem with today. If we zoom out the trend,
the medium long-term trend is now officially negative. And this was rising unemployment
in a soft jobs market. This is what I thought would give us our next bear market back in 2025.
You know, when I thought that, you know, Bitcoin hitting 60k, I thought that was a reasonable
expectation, a negative 10% correction on S&P 500, negative 15% on NASDAQ. I thought that was all very reasonable. Silver getting
cut in half. It almost did that in a day and it's not over. But I thought the cause would be
rising unemployment in a soft jobs market. And it looks like that's unfortunately starting to
happen. I don't want it to. I want prices to go up just like y'all. Why does it have to go down
at all? I hate red candles. But if I had to guess why we might get a bear market, it was always
going to be the jobs market. And that's the problem right now. That's the issue right now.
And then lastly, where I'm worried about how quickly we can get this turned around is you've got damn oil spiking,
the biggest spike on oil since the Russia-Ukraine invasion going all the way back to 2022.
So the problem with that is spiking energy costs, spiking oil keeps inflation. I don't want to call it not a second new spike of inflation, but it certainly keeps it elevated.
So long story short, I wouldn't count on any Fed rate cuts from J-PAL or FOMC.
It's probably going to be your first rate cuts, probably going to be Kevin Warsh in the summer.
So that's months away, almost half a year away
if we round up. So yeah, I think that it's okay to be cautious right now. It's okay not to just
trying to catch every falling knife. A lot of the market, like Bitcoin is the only thing right here that I feel
like you can safely deploy over short term, medium term and be very happy going into 2027.
Like if I, you know, if I had a big bag of money, I'm only looking at Bitcoin and placing my bids.
I'm not, I'm not looking at, I look at S&P 500, I see that as barely started its correction.
You know, S&P 500 is barely 5% off of its all-time high.
And it has a 10% correction annually.
Almost, you can set your watch to it.
They happen so frequently.
S&P 500 is always having a 10% correction.
Or if it's a bear market, negative 20%. So it's barely done
anything. So to me, that says a lot of companies, a lot of big blue chips, a lot of tech companies
still haven't cooled off enough, still haven't come off of really expensive valuations in PEs.
So you could try to hide out in energy. I was a big fan of energy throughout the winter and early 2026.
But the problem with buying energy here and not 30 days ago and 60 days ago is you are literally buying energy companies at their all-time highs ever.
all-time highs ever. Everything from the massive companies of Exxon and Chevron down to the itty
bitty AI data center energy companies that are trying to help data centers build out,
like all of them have all hit their more or less their all-time highs. So that's a big risk.
So that's a big risk. Will energy continue to do well in 2026? Yes, I think so. But you are buying at all-time high prices, whether you're looking at mega, safe and outperform, I think it's Bitcoin.
I think it's Bitcoin right here. Get it as close to 65 as you possibly can.
Buying anything under 70K is going to look great in a year. It's going to look amazing.
And, you know, two days ago when Bitcoin was 72, 73, almost 74K, I was tweeting out, I was posting that, you know, I have good news.
You know, if you missed the capitulation wick, you didn't buy any at $60 and $62 and $65.
If you didn't buy any back then, I think you're going to have a second and third chance.
chance. You know, Bitcoin bear markets last months, not weeks, you know, most bear markets
You know, Bitcoin bear markets last months, not weeks.
for Bitcoin last six months plus, or barely, even if you want to be generous, I don't, you know,
I think we're barely halfway through. So here we go. Now we're getting a second chance to buy in
the 60s. But everything else, everything else is going to get whacked, in my personal opinion, you know.
And so anyway, long story short, until labor market turns around, I think what it literally means is, okay, if we're in negative jobs growth for the short term or medium term. What does that mean for companies?
It flat out means fewer customers buying fewer goods and services, meaning it's more likely some of these companies are going to miss or underperform or disappoint their next earnings.
So yeah, there's always trades to be made. If you're swing trading or momentum trading and that's your bag, that's your fun, like, yeah, knock yourself out.
But I think that this is only getting started and everyone is going to, Bitcoin was first, but I think a lot more companies and equities and assets are going to feel the pain too.
and assets are going to feel the pain too.
There's also PSX,
which I don't really see anyone yapping about.
PS what?
PSX,
like oil company,
like Chevron and all that stuff.
But anyways. Oh, Phillips. Oh yeah, yeah. But anyways.
Oh, Phillips. Oh, yeah, yeah. Phillips 66.
I got you.
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
You know what's crazy, bro?
Some people were talking about minors yesterday
and they're all fucking down 10% the next day.
Dude.
That's funny.
Was I, though?
I know you didn't catch me talking about minors.
Watch out, Wabi. You're going to poke the hornet's nest hold on i just think it's funny dude like dude like look it's just a lot
funny right if you're bullish um well if you're bearish and price goes
up right like everyone is happy right like oh he got
blown out or whatever but like it's there's a
certain type of comedy when it's like when it's it's clear that some things are in a are in a
higher time frame downtrend right um and then it's like oh i don't know how how i can get to
this price and now i'm so bullish i'm so bullish and the next day it's down by like 10
20 or whatever it's just funny man it's just it's it actually does bring some comedy and by higher
time frame downtrend i mean like six to 12 months i don't mean five years or whatever um or anything
like that right just for the next few months there will be some some buying opportunities, dude. I really do think so.
But at the same time, there's always something that's in a bull market, man.
There's always going to be sectors that are in a bull market.
2022, you had plenty of time to position in oil.
Plenty of time.
And then over the summer, you could have longed tech.
That was a huge gamma squeeze.
I think the S&P was like 15% away from making a new all-time high during that August high.
That was a massive gamma squeeze.
Netflix went up like crazy, man.
And then, of course, later on that year after ChatGPT went live,
you could have just bought in some calls on NVIDIA,
bought in some calls on Nvidia bond some calls on
caterpillar and made a ton of money right so 2018 same thing you could have long tech that summer
and made a ton of money there's always opportunities to the long side, man. Always, always, always, always.
Right now, it seems to be oil and a few things within crypto on chain.
I'm just glad there's something to do, man.
Even if you can't really position with size and crypto, I'm glad there's at least something to do.
I'm glad there's at least something to do, and the market is somewhat maturing.
And the market is somewhat maturing.
Even if BTC and Solon Ether are in higher time frame downtrends, you could still play some plays here and there.
I'm glad, man. I'm so glad.
Prometheus, what are your thoughts, man?
Weekly close, unemployment, all that stuff for equities.
Yeah, bro.
I mean, you know, I kind of mainly follow price oh dude i totally forgot to say
this guys um one of our teammates sullivan he's actually in arizona and he's going to
to avenge clav and he's going to meet up with the asu frat leader. He's actually in Arizona. He sent me a photo.
I'm going to post this from my personal profile.
And the Clavengers will be formed, I would say, before the next having.
And perhaps some other guys from BB will join him.
But anyways, Prometheus, go ahead, man.
I think he's going to avenge Clav, man.
I think he will.
Yeah, I mean, Tommy's absolutely going to frame Mog
and frame Max every single quadrant of that picture.
So, I mean, good for him, right?
It needs to be done.
But with that being said, I mean, good for him, right? It needs to be done. But with that being said,
I mean, you know, I follow price. I've been long, a lot of the energy stocks recently.
But, you know, if I'm just looking at the VIX and volatility right now, I mean, I think that
the energy trade is probably becoming pretty crowded at this point. To Matt's point, a lot of the
energy stocks are at new all-time highs. Do you want to be buying new all-time highs on
assets that are historically a little bit slower in their appreciation to the upside?
If you buy here, really, what are you
looking for at this point? You kind of got to ask yourself these questions. I did mention,
though, that they have been in multi-year, you know, compressionary periods and just now breaking
out of them to the upside over the past, you know, two to four weeks, right? You got to think that these have more room to the upside
left in them. But I look at the VIX and I look at kind of indices structures across the board.
And I just, again, am like nothing. I mean, nothing's going to be safe, right? I think the
ES is, you know, destined for 6,300 at this point for the first stop.
We'll see if we get to 59 is the second.
And then QQQ first stop is 550.
Dow Jones is showing weakness.
That's been my risk off signal, right?
I've been kind of preaching that on these spaces.
On these spaces, Dow Jones is showing quite a bit of weakness.
Dow Jones is showing quite a bit of weakness.
I'm not one who is looking to be long almost anything in the market.
I don't think that there is opportunity with what price is showing us.
I want to wait for either the ES above 7,000 or not necessarily like 7,000, but on the chart, it's like 69, 20 or something like that.
And if you can get above the value region that we created up at the high and show acceptance
with new value creation, we're going to see an imbalance higher, meaning price wants to go higher.
And then we're off to the races, and that looks fantastic.
But, you know, I'm looking at indices.
I'm looking at the fragility and structures across the board.
Robinhood looks like it's probably, you know,
if I were to give a target $45.
CoreWeave looks like it's going to implode.
Oracle came out today saying that they're no longer going to extend their deal
with OpenAI to build out Stargate further.
You know, I mean, who could have foreseen that?
There's, you know, obviously people are kind of wishy-washy on Blackstone right now.
Jobs numbers, I think, are, to your point, Wabi, are just going to continue to deteriorate.
And these are just matter of facts.
They're not, you know, it's not like a, an emotional trade. It's not like an
emotional viewpoint on the market. Like this is just what price is telling me. And I think being
objective is the most important, uh, is the most important piece of the pie. Right. I mean,
the idea, what you should have in a high timeframe downt downtrend is when you get everybody gets super
bullish in a high time frame downtrend, you should look to be shorting that. Um, if obviously
presented with the right setup and then the inverse of that, if you're in a high time frame
uptrend and you pull back and everybody gets bearish and you're presented with the right setup,
you should look to long. Um,'s just, again, in the overall higher
timeframe trend structure for Bitcoin in particular is what I'm talking about. Do I want to be,
you know, super aggressive and jumping in front of the gun to short indices? No, I think that's
always been a losing strategy. If you guys know me and you listen to listen to me talk in these
spaces, I'd never recommend jumping in front of the indices um and being late to the party there is probably you're probably better off doing so if you're
trying to get short them um um i look at quantum i mean quantum like rgti spaghetti we're getting
garbage truck yeah garbage truck company earnings the other day.
Companies valued at, what, 5.9 billion or something like that,
and they did 1.8 or 1.3 million in sales last quarter.
What are we talking about?
This is horrendous.
I don't even know how that's possible.
I'm convinced, Promet prometheus i am convinced that quantum
every time anyone who talks about quantum or shills quantum it feels like because they were
so late to ai and this is their catch-up trade you know what i mean like it just yeah yeah
because it's not because it's certainly not based on products it's like to your point
you exactly hit it on the head it's certainly it's not based on revenues it's not based on products. To your point, you exactly hit it on the head.
It's not based on revenues.
It's not based on real physical products that you can actually...
No, it's just all speculation.
I mean, we know what happened in the dot-com.
I mean, we can all look back and see what happened to a lot of those companies in the dot-com era that had, you know, no money coming in. You know,
balance sheets can only last so long doing that, right? Where you're bleeding, bleeding,
bleeding, bleeding money. You know, and the majority of them, what happened? They filed
for bankruptcy. I believe that probably the same thing's going to happen unless you have like
massive intervention from the United States government.
And I genuinely don't think it's going to go to a company like RGTI or Qubits or I think, you know, yeah, no, I mean, it's if you're looking at it, it's probably going to be IonQ has some potential.
They're one of the front runners for the space.
Granted, the space is very young and it's very
um it's in its infancy and it's going to take a lot of innovation it's so young it barely exists
like it's theoretical it is theoretical i was about to say that it's like asml
you know like you know it's yeah it's like i like i look at it as asml right where people are looking
to asml um and if you don't know they like for the people listening they make the wafers for I look at it as ASML, right? Where people are looking at ASML.
And if you don't know, for the people listening,
they make the wafers for all the chips.
Very, very important company.
And it was theoretical for a long, long, long time.
And they were burning a tremendous amount of cash.
And there was potential there.
And you look at it as potential.
And then if they're able to realize or know, realize or manifest whatever it is they're,
you know, they're constructing or building, then it's going to be a fantastic foundational
company for the future. And I, you know, think the same of quantum, but it's still in its infancy.
And if people don't know, ASML was started in the early 90s. It took them two decades to come to market over two decades to come to market with their flagship
product right and you could expect the same for quantum these are pushing the you know the limits
and the edges of physics and and everything that we know and if I look at the smaller companies, I don't think their balance
sheets are sturdy enough to withstand, you know, decades and decades and decades of research while
just having zero sales and, you know, bleeding and bleeding and bleeding. Because eventually,
you know, the investor pool is going to dry up for people that are interested in investing.
And then kind of, you know, father time comes a knock in. And if I look at the
companies that are probably going to be front running, who are front running it right now,
I mean, you have, what is there, Google right now, I believe, Microsoft, IBM, and then IonQ.
And IonQ is kind of one of the babies, again, we'll see if it can withstand
probably the years of innovation that it's going to take to actually get to a physical working
product that actually does something, you know, meaningful. But that's kind of that for quantum.
I look at, I was going to say a name, I'm not going to say the name because the
owner of the social platform we use also happens to be the owner of the company I was going to
talk about. If you know, I don't want to get blackballed on the, on the algorithm, but man, I just look across the
board and I think there's just kind of, kind of got to be a realization for people, you know,
looking at the week VIX on the weekly, right? You close the weekly today, confirmed break
of structure to the upside. Right. And I've been talking about volatility skew for
a few weeks now. And I'd mentioned that, you know, we had the options expiry, which was very
important in context with how volatility was skewed leading up into that event and why that
leaned me in a certain direction within the market. And these are just context pieces that we
have to be putting together as traders. And again, no subjectivity to it. This is just objective,
objective views on the market. And I look at crypto and I look at altcoins. And again,
like the buy the dip mentality, I think is just such a bad approach. I think it's such a bad approach. And I look at altcoins and I think
there has to be some honest opinion where, you know, we know that altcoins bleed against their
Bitcoin pair the entire time until Bitcoin's bottomed. And that's been historical. And then
some of them have had catch ups, or I shouldn't say catch ups, but they then, you know, they're
against their Bitcoin pairs, you know, as Bitcoin bases out and starts to see breaks of structure, you know, back in 22
from 15K up to like 20 some odd K, you know, you do see some catch up. But again, if you were
trading from the end of 22 to really like the middle of 23, there was nothing to do for altcoins.
Like, no, there was there was like maybe four or five altcoins that actually did
anything. And then once you finally got the BTC ETF and you saw price discovery that you then
kind of saw some form of liquidity flows into altcoins. And the name of the game, the cycle
has been you only enter into alts until Bitcoin is in price discovery. If you pair BTC versus the total three ES chart,
altcoins do not really move off of their floors
until Bitcoin has been in price discovery.
Now, is Bitcoin close to being in price discovery right now?
No, we're almost down 50%, right?
So in what world do I want to be long in altcoin right now?
I don't, I simply don't. In fact do I want to be long in altcoin right now? I don't. I simply don't.
In fact, I want to be short a lot of them because I understand that relationship and probabilities
are skewed again in a direction and I want to be positioned in whatever direction that is.
I think there's some names that have still some catch up to the downside to be had.
I am impressed with hyperliquid. I think that Hyperliquid is, again,
showing really kind of the future
for where the space needs to be heading.
And I think that the space is going to head in that direction.
They've done a fantastic job.
The hype itself has held up tremendously well against Bitcoin
and you got to give them kind of their props.
They've done a great job with their product.
They generate a tremendous amount of money and revenue. Um, and you know, they're doing what's
necessary to support their ecosystem, which is awesome. And they're not doing it in this weird,
chilly way. Like they just let people use their product and they'll let the product speak for
themselves, which is awesome. Um, what else, if I were to be long things right now, like I said,
what else? If I were to be long things right now, like I said, I think the energy trade,
I'm like, okay, if you haven't been in it when I've been calling it out or whoever's been calling
it out, or if you got into it by yourself, you got to kind of ask yourself, what do you expect
at this point? I look at bonds and TLT to me looks identical to oil before oil had its breakout. You know, whether am I the most
knowledgeable person in regards to bonds, I'm not, I will, I will come out and say that. But
if I'm looking at it from a structural perspective, it is almost identical multi-year
downtrend into compression at the lows. And you're just seeing price squeeze. And what is that?
That squeezing and compression of price is just energy building. That's all that is. That is
energy building and building and building. And once it reaches a high enough frequency,
you will see a breakout. Whether TLT breaks out in three months or six months, I don't know.
Be my guest. The sooner the better, obviously, but
I do like bonds here. Weirdly enough, I don't think it's a sexy trade at all. But I think
it's going to be a great trade in the long run. And it's a place for me to park some of my cash.
Yeah, I kind of like look across the board in video losing 177 today. Again, acceptance below 177 means you've rejected off of the entire last 12 months of value creation.
That creates a very fragile structure, which means your next support for NVIDIA is 145.
The list kind of goes on across the board.
I don't have a whole lot new to discuss today.
I just am like, okay, BTC deviated its range highs.
Why does BTC deviate as range highs?
And if you're understanding structural dynamics and you understand how the market actually works,
big players who cannot hide themselves, they have to move price in a certain direction
to if they're, let's say we have a range and you come up, you deviate the range highs,
you set back within the range and you're leaving this trail liquidity or buy side liquidity underneath us.
Right. All these untapped lows. What is that and why is that? Right.
Well, what is it? It's big, big, big players getting their ass filled. Right.
They're allowing everybody to long in up the highs. And they said, OK, thank you very much.
And we're going to come back down within this range. And why do they leave all those lows? Because that creates fuel to the fire that creates jet fuel, because
they need now less money to push price in a certain direction. And so they leave all those
lows because they want to leave all those stops. Because when buyers get forced out of the market,
they become forced sellers, exacerbating price in that direction. And we saw the structure
back in January and December. It's the exact same thing. There's nothing new here. It's not like
this crazy 10 head, 500 IQ. It doesn't need to be that. It does not need to be that. If we were
truly bottoming out on Bitcoin,
what I would have liked to have seen is I would like to have seen on the Iran news a deviation below 60K, except back up within the range and leaving all of your sell side liquidity
and putting in some form of higher timeframe accumulation. But in fact, that's not what we
got. So at what point does this signal to me that this is a meaningful bottom for Bitcoin? It doesn't. And I'm somebody a little bit different from Matt. Matt takes opportunities when we see extremity within the market and it's played out very well for him.
You can average down as you go.
And I approach the market.
There's two ways to approach it.
He approaches it from a range or from a move extremity standpoint.
And then I wait for confirmation on the other end of the bottom or I wait for that market
structure break or whatever.
It's just two different ways to approach it.
There's nothing wrong with either.
either. Um, you just kind of, kind of got to ask yourself, which one are you? Um, you know,
You just kind of got to ask yourself, which one are you?
and if you are, have been buying in the sixties and if it goes lower, are you willing to buy again
lower? Um, and if you're going to think like, Oh, I need to capitulate at 60 K if people,
if you've been buying, um, at 60 K, like you, like, is that really your style of trading at
this point? Um, so that's kind of what I'm seeing in the market, man. I'm, like, is that really your style of trading at this point?
So that's kind of what I'm seeing in the market, man.
I'm just like, again, like the market leaders rolling over.
What does that signal to me?
What does that signal?
I mean, that signals lower prices.
I think jobs data is just going to continue to just bleed and bleed and bleed and bleed. Um, and I do not want to be getting in front of the train,
trying to short, um, or trying to long things that have been losers. And I do not want to
get into, in front of, you know, the train of the winners, you know, oil and some of these others
and try to short them. Like, what are you doing? I think that's a very poor way to approach the market, in my opinion.
But that's what I got.
That's what I got.
That was an absolute masterclass, man.
That was an absolute masterclass.
For me, it's real simple.
I prefer buying bottoms or breakouts.
And, yeah, I like your trading style, Prometheus. I think you've seen a lot
of success and I appreciate how transparent you are about it. And to me, looking at Bitcoin,
I think it's a bottom. And time will tell, we'll know better in the spring and in six months from now.
But I think that, you know, for the longest time, you know, three months ago, people were asking why what's wrong with Bitcoin?
Why is Bitcoin weak? Why is Bitcoin decoupling from broader markets?
Look at Russell, look at Nasdaq, look at S&P 500.
But you know what? In hindsight, I think it was I think we can start to say, no, maybe Bitcoin sniffed it out first.
And then quickly came software companies.
And quickly, and now here comes Mag7 and other blue chips.
And truly, the only thing that is holding S&P 500 up from not being negative 10% off of its all-time high today.
It's only energy, healthcare, and some services.
And as soon as energy has, look at XLE, as soon as energy has a red week,
now the S&P 500 has officially sliced through.
It has officially closed below its 20-week moving average.
That hasn't happened in over a year.
So it's catching up across the board everywhere now.
So it turns out, no, Bitcoin wasn't wrong.
Bitcoin might have been early, but it was dead right.
It was dead right.
And here comes the rest of the market to prove its point.
S&P 500 has not made a new all-time high since 2025.
You know, S&P 500 has not made a new all-time high since 2025.
Late winter, technically, if you want to call the candle close, the all-time high was that first week of January, technically, 2026.
But that was almost 60 days ago.
S&P 500 has been lower lows and lower highs ever since.
And now officially this week, S&P 500 lost its 20-week moving average.
Last time that happened was, again, March 2025, right into the teeth of the tariff tantrum Liberation Day capitulation. And before that, we all know what happened in 2022. So we don't need
to talk about 2022 yet. I think we're still looking at just a typical annual negative 10%
correction on S&P 500. But I agree with you, Prometheus, if labor data keeps weakening,
and if negative jobs growth is the theme for the next, call it a couple of months,
throughout the spring going into the summer, like, there's nothing to hide in. You know,
I'm not going to ride energy all the way down to, I'm not going to ride
services and healthcare all the way down to those are still at the end of the day.
If the economy is slowing, energy has fewer customers to buy their goods and services.
Healthcare has fewer customers to buy their goods and services. Same with serve,
same with a service sector and communications. Like, and communications. No, I think again,
if you're looking medium and long-term, what's more likely to double over the next couple of
years? It's not TLT bonds, it's Bitcoin. So give me all the Bitcoin below 70K. i think 60 is the low could be wrong if we slip into a recession but if i'm right
i think we all agree that bitcoin is an easy double compared to a lot of the other stuff
we're talking about we don't all agree on that hey chads what's going on, man? How are you? Big Cheds.
You know what?
Audio kind of sucks because I'm in the car.
I don't know if you can hear me.
Can you hear me?
Oh, you're good, man.
Hey, what happened to Big Chonas, man?
You guys were doing his finances all the time.
I hear my echo.
That's funny.
Uh-oh, crazy echo. He's cutting out. Oh, he's literally cutting out
I'll get back to you
Evan bro
I think he's cooked
Evan you were on TV today right
yeah yeah man
I was on Fox News I no I'm just kidding I was
on Paul Barron Network yeah that's not TV that's YouTube but um yeah no I've been uh that was TV
I've been on his show for yeah he's got like an actual studio and stuff really really good guy
you guys should check him out but um yeah no I've been going on on. I was in person in his studio for years now.
Since I was a young lad, I was like probably 23 years or 24 maybe.
23, 24, I think, when I first collabed with him in person.
So, yeah, it's been a long time.
Now I'm just a hunk maxing here.
But, yeah, I kind of got here late. But, yeah, I heard the conversation, you know, about XLE and all that.
I mean, i think the next
two three weeks is going to be very very interesting like the next two three weeks you
could see you know you could see stuff really come down i mean you could see bitcoin drop to
maybe 48 50k in the next two weeks and i mean that could be a cycle bottom potentially um especially
if the s&p 500 i mean that thing's been range bound for the longest time. And, you know,
I feel like that's probably going to break down rather than break upward.
So I think there's a lot I wouldn't get too, you know,
afraid with this Iran stuff.
Like I think the odds of actual troops on the ground are pretty low.
Maybe I'm wrong. I'm not a geopolitical expert. Take this,
take this for a grain of salt.
But I think Trump's going to find a way to kind of pull
things off i feel like you know that's that's the view i would have but i still think like kind of
what matt was saying yeah table 10 s&p 500 correction that doesn't mean bitcoin's got to
go down to like you know 20 or 30k or whatever i mean bitcoin could just go down to 48 or 50k
you know and that's an area um potentially in the next uh couple weeks here so you know, in that scenario, um, potentially in the next, uh, couple of weeks here. So,
you know, that's what I'm looking at in terms of XLE. Like, I think, you know,
to FOMO into it right now may not be like the best idea in the world, but then again, like it,
it looks more attractive than gold. Um, it looks more attractive than the SMP 500 still arguably.
So, I mean, there's not like that many choices, like maybe in the very short term, you'll say correction, but I could still see that, that showing some strength, um, into the summer.
I mean, I've been in that since like January, December, maybe something like that.
Um, so I, I, I'm not just going to like get paper hands and get rid of it immediately, but a couple more months I'm looking for.
Um, but yeah, I mean, I think, you know, they're, they're Bitcoin's tough to say. I mean, there could be another jump up to 74 or 75 or whatever, i think you know they're bitcoin's tough to say i mean there could be
another jump up to 74 or 75 or whatever or you know i maybe i'm kind of leaning towards more of
the bearish side that we're just gonna kind of you know nuke down and uh break downward i mean
you guys have probably seen that chart that everybody's sharing i was one of the first
people to do it make that comparison um but who cares that chart that can people compare to may and june of 2022 um where you had that jump up and it looks like clockwork because if you
if you copy and paste the bars like 74k would be the top right there and then you would drop down
i mean who knows exactly what will happen but i think you will see you know probably a drop down
to that 48 52k range potentially in the next few weeks.
Trying to think what else is relevant.
I mean, oil coming up.
I mean, I think it probably will come up a little bit more, but I think the majority of that move is over unless things get obviously a lot worse with Iran, which I don't think it's going to be that bad.
I think Trump's going to pull it off.
So, yeah, that's my two cents.
I wouldn't get too afraid of a recession, at least not yet. I think that's still to pull it off. So, yeah, that's my two cents. I wouldn't get too afraid of a recession, at least not yet.
I think that's still a few years away.
So, yeah.
Oh, man, I thought my mic was glitching here, man.
Judge, are you there, man?
Yeah. here man judge are you uh are you there man oh no it's it's i think it's cooked man i'm not able uh to hear it to hear chad's at all hey evan you know what fractal man um that you're talking about there's one fractal that uh there's this one profile
his name is nebraskan gooner um that's my quant yeah you know who he is right nebraskan gooner
no of course not man okay okay what are you looking at here? He has $400,000.
I mean, I'm more of a Mississippi tweaker follower, but, you know.
But look, but anyways, he posted a fractal in like October, right?
uh i think he has btc bottoming at like
like early 50s early 50s and i know zoran zoran thinks we hit 44 and he is often been extremely
right um when it comes you know zoran matt remember zorn yeah he was here on the
show quite a bit uh cold world and um he thinks we hit 44 between 44 48 something like that
um actually no 44 to 50 sorry 44 to 50 posted a tweet, 58K of bear trap is possible.
53, 55K of breakaway gap is filled.
50K illogical bottom is found.
44K poetic justice, which would kind of be to Prometheus's point, how the boomers are
going to round trip pretty much like all of their gains.
And he said that, he said that shit before the election
that was i mean they did but they already that's why i think i think we're overthinking it because
the boomers already did round trip remember the boomers no yeah the boomers have not round trip
because the etfs are still full they They had 2% redemptions.
What are you talking about?
The ETFs are drowning in this paper.
They spent all of 2024 buying up the spot ETFs.
Come on, they didn't all...
The ETFs have 98% of their contributed assets.
They're riding it down.
They're shorting the volatility.
I don't know what planet you guys are on why isn't any rally a short why is everything along
how are you not seeing this you finally have uh the ghoulmeister prometheus whatever you finally
have them saying this chart work is getting worse why is everyone who's always been a bull
when the liquidity has been exploding and the liquidity
was the lift, not your freaking charts. It was the liquidity. Go look at BlackRock today,
failing Liberation Day. Go look at Jeffries on an IV drip, new 52-week low. The liquidity is
evaporating. Go look at Oracle. They had to pull a deal. SoftBank, they couldn't get some funding.
Who's got all the warehouse lines to all this private credit?
The big banks, they're rolling over.
60% of the stock market is sloppy.
And you're looking for a buy of a super alt-9 Bitcoin?
Give me a break, guys.
Everybody is trapped long in this.
And all you want to do is buy a dip.
It's insane what I'm hearing.
You have this iron piece of garbage.
Coreweave, SMCI, Nibis.
What's the other one?
Look at those red hammers.
Tail hammers, red.
No one's trying to sell an AI data center here.
It's the same thing.
You've got overlap. The same people
own the same stuff.
The miner, Mara.
Of course their 50,000 coins are coming out.
Of course sailors 720,000 coins
are coming out.
Of course the IBIT coins are coming out.
Of course all the treasury coins are coming out.
Who's going to hold it up? BlackRock?
How about services inflation in the CPI?
Where's that going when you have BlackRock at a new low?
Where are you going to have investment services inflation?
Mary Daly, as I said before she came out on our subscriber spaces,
this lady has the Great Depression in Silicon Valley.
It is the start of the Great Silicon Valley Depression.
It is going to be the start of the Main Street America renaissance,
where all that money that's been hiding in this crap since 1998
is going to come loose and come to Main Street America,
Coke, Walmart, Costco, McDonald's, even cigarettes.
And all you can think of is, where can I DCA?
Where can I lose more money?
I don't understand it.
You're literally trying to get people where they're going to be underwater faster.
You've got all of these companies like Iron.
Okay.
Where are they going to get the cap?
Oracle can't get the money.
Oracle's being told, you want to borrow more money?
We need more collateral.
When did Oracle announce that they are getting out of this deal?
The day that his son got Netflix to drop out of the bid.
Because Larry Ellison pledged family stock.
He doesn't sell it.
He just borrows against it.
He can't have the pressure of more credit default swap traders smacking him.
And if he doesn't have access to capital,
you think this piece of garbage IREN,
it's lifted by promoters or people like that.
None of this stuff can't.
Look at all of these charts.
Microsoft, other than the bounce
because it collapsed versus the SMEs,
and we said, you can't go that far away.
Semis divided by SMH.
So far below its 200-week moving average.
Unsustainable.
The first day, it stopped widening.
It converged 20%. They're the biggest customer.
SMCI, all of NVIDIA's customers are about to melt down. Why would you not want to say,
hey, maybe their revenue is going to miss? I don't care what they say. The earnings are
predicated on requests for proposals, not actual orders, because they're
all contingent. It's melting down. The XLF, the curves are flattening. Mary Daly came out today,
8.30, 8.40, after the jobs, and she's trying to say, well, oil, but labor. First of all, the labor data is so misleading. They took 31,000
New York City nurses off, so health was down, so it was only 61. Then you had weather, which wasn't
properly seasonally adjusted. 200 million people couldn't go to work. I mean, yeah, 200 million people were covered by snow.
And then most of the jobs now are small businesses because this AI is so incredibly productive.
It's just the valuations are for planet Alice in Wonderland.
So you're not counting the real jobs. You'll find them later. But we're just getting out of 28 years of AI negative cost of capital
industrial use of liquidity it's over and all you can think of doing is burning your bags
and pouring it in other people's pockets watch what's going on I think that's a good entry point
you guys are insane how much more evidence do you
need? The two-year yield is right back down. The two-year yield is where it was on February 24th
before the month had print. What's the cost of funds to buy a bond? The short rate. We just
added more probability of a rate cut because not labor. Because Mary Daly's district is in the
greatest threat it's ever been since the gold rush ended in the 1800s. They've got all this
valuation. Amazing. It's hype. It's air. It's fiction. When BlackRock can't meet withdrawals, if they can't give you your pound of
flesh, you will take it out of them. Do you think it's the end of Jeffrey's sell-off at a 52-week
below Liberation Day? Do you really want to step in and buy any of these private credit and
financials, no matter what the insiders say, we are losing global liquidity.
We are losing convergence of risk versus risk-free. Everybody in the world is short U.S. bonds and
notes and bills, and they're going to have to buy dollars to be able to cover their shorts for all
the money they sent around the world. And you've got a little pishikaka Iran conflict. I feel terrible for the service members that lost their lives.
We have full control over the skies. We have reapers hunting with hellfire missiles. If
anybody picks their head out for a launch, launches are down 90%. Trump said today,
what he doesn't mean, he doesn't mean we're actually going to have to approve their new leader.
You just have a veto over a couple of loonies. Trump is hyping this thing up, but the damage
we're doing to currencies in the emerging market, which are 70 plus percent of the
demand for oil because we use half as much oil per unit of GDP as these emerging markets. This
is identical to what happened in 1997 on March 25 when Greenspan snugged up rates a little on a 197 GDP print, just like Powell did not cut on March 28th.
It's the same thing under policy equivalents.
If you have inflation and you hike more than the inflation, it tightens.
If you don't cut and inflation's falling, it's the same thing as a tighten.
That unleashed all of this.
We had said in 2024 before the cuts that they needed
to do more than 25 or would be a problem and mortgage rates would still come down. We found
out a couple days later, JP Morgan cried about their net interest margin. They go to a 50 cut,
they steepen the curve, they drive Bitcoin up on January 19th of 2025, six days after the 10-year note peaked, up 129.
Bitcoin stalls out, and you have a whole month before the NASDAQ and the S&P stalled out. So
two weeks later, it's a natural short, because if it's more risky than NASDAQ and S&P, it should be going up longer and more.
And when it doesn't, it's get me out of here. Why would I want to have a money market without
a stable dollar? So that was the short. And then I posted the 75-091-95, April 7th, 429 AM reversal,
7th, 4.29 a.m. reversal, because it wasn't going down as fast as the NASDAQ. And then when the
Bitcoin divided by its own volatility peaked September 18th, two weeks later was October 2nd,
a natural short. You got the peak on the 6th, you got the NASDAQ peak on the 9th, 23 years, and one day after the bottom on October 8th, 2002, down 83.6%,
who none of you were trading back then. 83.6% down, it produced the greatest year of housing
of all time. GFC is the anomaly because of special factors. We've been going up and going up and
printing money and negative costs of capital
and these industrial things. Do you guys realize that the NASDAQ divided by the S&P
is only up 11% over the last 26 years? It was up 600% in 10 years, from the Gulf War, October 12, 1990 to March 10, 2008. Oh, we are up 11% over
23 years. Do you understand how exhausted this stuff is? Do you
understand how overvalued this nonsense is?
Isn't that because the greater an asset class
goes up, the less... The more inertia because of the market
cap. Exactly. that's exactly it you took you
we can't we can't really expect like things so yeah but it's not making any money it's not making
any money and it has all the risk you you took an apple and an intel at nine or ten times earnings
that people thought that was expense and now these people think 30 times as cheap?
None of the earnings are going to be real.
They're going to look back in 10 years and say,
what was Mark Zuckerberg thinking?
Building a Central Park-sized data center, thinking that chips wouldn't innovate and make that useless?
This IREN, this NET, NEBIS, or whatever. What's that other one? SMCI,
Corweave. They're all melting down. They won't get access to capital. You think you're going
to get money from Jeffries for them? You think you're going to get money from BlackRock for them?
They're doing at-the-money sales. They're going to dilute the company. The lower it goes, the more they're giving away. The market is unfriendly. Liquidity is evaporating. And with this oil price going up,
it's not going to drive the U.S. into recession. We make a ton of oil. And our frackers,
they're going to be making oil like crazy because they can sell it right now in the futures market
for $66 for that 18-month of premium output
before it slows down. Our natural gas, Qatar isn't selling it. Hey, we got it for sale.
You want some? Do a long-term contract. Europe is pretending like they're not going to honor
their $500 billion natural gas because of some stupid Supreme Court really. Folks, we had Bitcoin
follow microstrategy, not lead. Microstrategy peaked. November 21, 2024. Ten and a half months
later, Bitcoin peaked. Then we had other markets hold up longer. bitcoin and nasdaq peaked the same day
s&p made new highs why do you have to overthink it bitcoin led from its less than a tenth of a cent
to 126k it was up 9.3 decimals 13 1.3 billion percent while the market's not up anything like that
it led and it slowed down now it's why don't you make it prove that it can outperform before you
just raise your average price get yourself closer to a sailor where you're underwater. Why are you getting yourself underwater at something that is down since November 11th, November 10th, 2021?
11, 10, 21.
Code reuse.
Why do you have to hit the buy button?
Why are you so insane?
I've been screaming at the top of my lungs.
You can't get this stuff. David, what are you so insane? I've been screaming at the top of my lungs.
You can't get this stuff.
David, what are you buying?
Well, when the first bomb dropped, I spoke to my people,
and I said, de-risk a lot, de-gross a lot.
We're just going to ride this out with very little.
That's it.
So heavy cash cash you know
and we're sure we're not short equity volatility but i want to get short gold volatility i want to get short silver volatility yeah there's not enough money to drive that and oil up, because you have to look at what happens. Emerging markets,
six billion people or so, they don't pay for oil. Their government does. They subsidize it.
Oil goes up. They need to buy more dollars. They don't have enough for the other imports.
Their currency melts down. Like India, all-time low. Indonesia, all-time low. Korea intervened
in New Year's, which is why I shorted at 149 two days before I posted. It's in my highlights.
Two days before the war and the day before we heard about Druckenbiller, which allowed me to double down and went to 121 or so.
It was 150.
Because if you intervene in your currency,
it's not going to stay.
Remember, Japan did not intervene
that recent episode.
They did price checks.
I think the yen goes much higher eventually.
Not intervene.
Korea, it's at an eight-year low.
It's not far away from having only one support level from 1997 when they devalued their currency after Thailand, then Indonesia, then them, then all of South America. Folks were losing liquidity
and you could stick your head in the sand like an ostrich and not notice that blackrock the biggest asset holder in the world had to gate in stuff and people want more
than they could offer so they're gonna want more and they can't get it so what did they do they
shorted the stock you think people are done with redemptions what happens when nvidia takes out 70
happens when NVIDIA takes out 70? What happens when NVIDIA, it was 141 in June of the prior year.
We're almost at an 18-month level. Amazon, these private credit, they look at XCCC divided by HYG.
That's the lowest rated performing high yield versus the higher quality. That's melting down. That's
targeting Liberation Day lows, multi-year lows. We are losing liquidity, and you could pretend
that you're not. Bitcoin is an alt of NASDAQ. You just had a guy say, unless NASDAQ's pumping, you're not going to get a
Bitcoin pump. And then you get the Bitcoin pump, and then you get an alt pump. And that is my
framework with equities. Everyone on the street knows my fund is going to be focused, log XLU and
P, XLP, UNV, staples, then utilities and healthcare. I'll be shorting volatility bands
under the money. The puts will be sold at the money. The calls will be written above the money,
buying some tail on those. We have the greatest mispricing. People don't understand,
those. We have the greatest mispricing. People don't understand. Tech used to be low beta,
and this stuff used to be high beta. The idea that they flipped it around is just because of
all the liquidity and the policy interference, and the Fed is running out of that. Trump is
accelerating the recession in the emerging markets, which will cut back on so many things,
including the buying of gold and
silver, because they won't have enough money for both. And Bitcoin following MicroStrategy lower,
not leading. That's the train being led. Strategy, Bitcoin, and then Nasdaq. Software.
and then NASDAQ, software.
I don't care what these geniuses say.
Mark Benioff saying,
on an interview two days ago,
he said, quote unquote,
I follow 100 software companies.
They got the revenue.
They got the this.
They got the that.
They got the cash flow.
Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
I don't know why it's going down.
It was Pishikaka, right?
It was Pishikaka.
It was Pishikaka.
He was giving you nonsense.
He was explaining that he had no idea why markets are going down.
He's not looking at liquidity providers.
Do you think the banks are going to extend more warehouse loans
to collapsing private equity companies?
401k withdrawals, hardship, more selling.
Institutions have yet to make their adjustments.
You can bet your bottom dollar that the monthly and the quarterly meetings are going to have reductions in comm, tech.
You're going to have them take exposure down in equity in general,
and they'll be buying mortgages, treasuries,
lower beta, higher dividend equity income. And when they do, the hedge funds will get the signal,
okay, go sell short, get yourself short 100,000 shares of NVIDIA so I can dump a 100,000 share block on you.
That's the way our ecosystem works.
You have the individual investors buying the dip.
There's no more money left in the mutual funds cash balances.
You've got a lot of people shorting the puts.
That's what you're seeing, this crazy vixen.
The NASDAQ fall is the same as the S&P. It's nuts. It's liquidity. It's not going to last. When we travel lower,
you'll start to activate the delta hedging of the dealers, and they will no longer provide puts
at cheap prices. So now they're doing it because they have other people selling them.
You won't have individual investors selling the puts. So we have a very simple case.
You just had all-time highs on a monthly, and I imagine Prometheus would concur that a monthly
close is only subordinate to a quarterly close. But we had all-time high monthly closes in staples, utilities, and healthcare.
And that's with the Fed having cut rates 175, signaling another 75, reducing QT by a trillion,
and popping a half a trillion of QER.
That's some level of liquidity we've never had. Greenspan accommodated and sanctioned and
allowed a 57% 10-month decline in the NASDAQ 100 without cutting a basis point. In fact,
he hiked along the way. And all you people could talk about, oh, where's a good entry point? Where
can I deal? Where can I raise my average cost?
Are you people on serious with yourself?
This is money.
This is your life.
Do you know how many people are going to self-harm when they find out this Bitcoin doesn't hold 10 and you told them to just DCA into hell?
It doesn't hold 10,000?
No, it doesn't hold 10,000.
There's no possibility in my mind.
I was the one who articulated
why Bitcoin would go up,
why it would go down.
And I don't have a floor yet. I don't have
any floor yet. Why aren't you short then?
I was short
from the highs, and I covered
on February 5th, around
63, 64.
I got bullish on the heard about the first bomb under 64.
Check my highlighted tweets.
And then I got out of my bullet, my minor bullishness at 72-73 the other day.
But you still see, right now, you see negative 85% on Bitcoin.
Right now.
Minimum.
David, what's your timeline so hold on hold on
let's let's so let's tease that out so you see negative 85 percent minimum on so how come you're
not short now because you don't short something that you just made a hundred percent i was
leveraged short for a more than 50% drop.
Why the hell would I overstay my welcome in that trade?
I'm going to let it settle down.
I don't care if it goes to 40 before I load up a big short.
I want the volatility to come down.
I'm not interested in trafficking in a rising volatility environment as a position.
I want a stable to falling volatility.
Well, I mean, it's consolidated sideways for a month now.
It just went up from 50 to 90.4 in six hours.
On what planet?
Is that not an accelerated kurtosis?
The volatility of volatility.
I'm not playing with that thing
till it spends months i don't mind trading small but i'm not getting big until we get this thing
below 40 we had a 37 17 i saw it creeping up i'm short i'm loving it that's people buying puts to
get out and then they lost their mind the day that MicroStrategy was going to report the next day because they were afraid he would announce they're going to be selling some
coin to buy in the shares. So when you take me down 15%, my short, which is 30% because it's
levered, and then volatility explodes and I stop in my tracks, I'm out. I'm never interested in being short when volatility
is accelerating.
That's crazy. When I stop
moving and it's getting riskier,
get me the hell out of Dodge.
Heck!
Then I got some more. I got a little
long. Then I got the SAVE Act.
I got flat.
Or whatever that thing is called. The
CLEAR Act. whatever it's called.
The thing that Trump pumped up.
The Clarity Act. Thank you.
Folks, you'll see...
Do you think that's going to make it go up?
It did. Then I got out on that.
Got up to 73.
It hasn't passed yet, right?
He said he supports it.
That was the pump.
But everything pumped Wednesday.
I think that was more about 80%.
I don't care why.
I don't care why. It's not a future opportunity
for a pump.
We had the war.
We posted below
a minor bullish bias
because that's all it is.
No real size.
Nobody's got the, not rational.
There's no
this volatility could go up, the volatility could go
down. I don't know. People could move
it around. There's no liquidity.
I have no interest in any size
in anything right now.
Here's a million dollar question. When does
Bitcoin hit 10k? This year or next
year? Or whenever? It could be the fourth quarter. Maybe next year hit 10k this year or next year or whatever
probably could be the fourth quarter maybe next could be this year oh next i don't think it's
happening i know you don't think it's happening and you were sure it would never go down 50
so your judgment is compromised no no no david david in november hold on, hold on, hold on. In end of October.
Did you think Michael's Treasury was down 85?
Yes.
Because I think it's going down 99.
David, end of October, early November 2025, I was calling for Bitcoin 60K.
I was being told you're a crazy bear.
Now I'm saying Bitcoin 60K. Okay, guess what?
You were right about that, and now you'd be wrong about this.
Let me jump in real quick.
Let me jump in.
Sorry about earlier, guys.
And hey, David, I love your stuff.
Back in November, I said Bitcoin 35, 45K.
I think that's still the nut bottom.
I just don't think 10K is reasonable.
Okay, you're allowed to be wrong.
There's nothing wrong with that.
Oh, it won't be the last time.
It won't be the last time if I am.
It's just why do you think that's a point that it's low enough?
Sure, sure.
So if you look at the rate of drawdown peak to drop in prior cycles.
No, that means nothing.
Hold on, David.
No, no, but let me just say the one point.
Can you accept one thing?
I just want you to do one thing.
Let's finish.
Go for it.
Oh, man.
Chad's finished, bro.
Chad's, go ahead, man.
Chad's.
Sorry, I'm there um i just i'm just saying slightly like less compressed volatility over time for bitcoin so slightly less of a drawdown
but still enough to be enough of a washout to kind of reset things for another leg up i think
it goes 35 to 225 for the next cycle you know with some room for error around that but that
just makes sense
to me from a trend following standpoint. And that's all I am as a trend follower.
So I can understand you're saying that it's completely delusional. And I'll tell you why,
because you had 28 years of psychotic Fed debasement of the dollar. The Japanese chopped
their currency by more than half.
And that was all the liquidity.
You never had what we have now.
You never had...
Hey, David, let me ask you a question, man.
What's your invalidation?
If it goes up to a new high, you'll be wrong.
But it's not going there.
I've been right...
I was right on my short. I was right hold on hold on i was right on my short
i was right on my long i was right on my short i was right on my cover but hasn't that been david
i've heard you david i've heard you say david i've heard you say that you do not see a recession
this year for the u.s that's correct okay so's completely correct. So the problem I'm having is-
If we had a recession, I would buy Bitcoin.
Okay, but-
For sure, but we're not going to have it.
So I want to sell it.
The problem I'm having is you're calling for one of the worst bear markets in Bitcoin's
history, yet one of the lightest, weakest bear markets in U.S. history.
Like if we're not having a U.S. recession,
how do you see one of the worst bear markets in Bitcoin's history?
Because Bitcoin went up a million,
Bitcoin went up a hundred million times more than the stock market.
So it could compress a million more than the stock market.
It could lose multiple decimals.
That's all.
You're so, you could go up 9.3 decimals
and not even go down a decimal?
Matt,
wouldn't the BTC network
fail if we hit 1,000?
They could vote on something and fix it.
No, it's completely over.
They can vote on something
and fix it.
They would change something. on something and fix it. Come on. They can't. Like, the cost of mine of BTC.
They would change something.
They would figure it out.
They can't.
That's not real.
Yeah, but it's auto.
Wabi, it's auto.
Yeah, but it auto-adjusts every.
Matt, if BTC trades below 10, there are worse things to worry about than Bitcoin, man.
Because you're talking about, like, Black most most successful etf and their customers being
can i ask you why 70 have you looked at black rock lately i'm not worried about i i don't think any
of this is gonna have you looked at black rock lately have you looked at it today i i have it's
up in your nest it's up in your nest take a look it's not pretty jeffrey's new low that's, it's not pretty Jeffrey's new low it's just a pullback
I don't see a plan
give me 30 seconds
to explain why you guys are wrong
and why you should
go look at the Fed balance sheet
go look at the amount of money they printed
in the last 28 years
and in particular
look at the Japanese balance sheet,
the U.S. balance sheet,
since 2008.
Straight up.
We went up 10x in liquidity
from 2008,
$893 billion to $8.93 trillion.
I know you don't think
that we're entering a new wave
of fiscal responsibility, though.
I know you don't think that.
On what planet do you not notice how much the deficit's gone down?
And on what planet do you not notice how much more the interest expense is going to go down
because the Fed will be cutting to zero?
Mary Daly was in full panic mode today.
You could see it in her face when they just started moving up Fed Fund's futures
probabilities of easing. As much as they hate Trump and as much as they don't want to ease,
when you look at Jeffries, do you think Jeffries is going to survive? Do you think the banking
system will do well if Jeffries keeps on plunging at its current rate. Folks, this is liquidity death.
The Fed can't bring this back together by cutting rates.
There is a long period of time after you cut rates to zero before things normalize.
It could be a year.
Yeah, there's six months to a year delay.
It could be two years or three.
Someone just bought at our space, man.
We have like 1,200 anonymous listeners. Someone bought it our space man we have like 1200 maybe we're just fire someone
bought it someone bought it maybe we're just sucks you know on one when you have a chart
in an ascending liquidity accelerating liquidity environment and bitcoin is a super liquidity
sponge it just soaks it up, just like industrial NASDAQ.
When you lose your liquidity, which we are,
inarguably, what are the consequences?
So you will see soon when Bitcoin is below 50,
and it's doing worse than other parts
of the risk continuum, at some point point you'll have to say to yourself i need to
see bitcoin decelerate with respect to the nasdaq not accelerate and you're not likely to see it
because we're losing liquidity and rate cuts don't cause liquidity when you're this low on the rate cut trajectory.
As I said, before the rate cut started,
we'd get significant steepening,
benefits to the banks, benefits to tax,
and we steeped 229 basis points.
And the tenure rose 129.
Before the war, we were down
versus the most recent three cuts.
They already have three more cuts priced in.
David, do you see whatever you want to call this then?
It's not a recession, so let's call it a sharp correction.
It's a business recession, and it's a Main Street celebration.
Do you see this as worse than last year's tariffs and Liberation Day?
That wasn't real.
If he ever really planned on doing 145% tariffs, the market would be down 80% already.
But do you see this as worse?
Do you see the drawdown as worse?
This is real.
That was a four-day thing.
Go look at my podcast, Polarity Radio with Levinson.
Okay.
I called on April 21, a prompt, meaning now, Vegas suppression-driven rally.
And we got the greatest rally since 1982 because Trump was spoofing everyone.
And there was a point at which...
It might not have been real, though.
It might not have been real.
But the NASDAQ definitely fell off a negative 25 percent clip
no you don't know what happened friend you don't know what happened he said 145 tariffs and if he
didn't call them back the nasdaq would have fallen 80 percent he pulled them back he never intended
them he was tricking people into dumping their stocks but they have to buy it back. So NASDAQ is barely off, what, 8%?
Friends, you don't know what's...
You're not listening.
You're not listening.
You're just hearing your own words.
Listen, please.
I called that bottom.
That bottom was within higher inflation.
We had a lot of inflation
coming off from the Biden administration.
He pumped in a half a trillion of extra stimmy
into the election.
He just drove up natural gas
prices 150% year
over year. We had a lot of hot money.
Had a lot of momentum.
Trump
has the
right to...
A lot of good points.
I'll see you guys later.
You don't want to hear goodbye.
You've been talking 90% of the time.
I like you, David.
I was just trying to ask a follow-up question.
I didn't mean to.
You're going to share this.
10K is an outrageous prediction.
I remember one time, I think Lady Trader said,
outrageous predictions usually do not come true. is outrageous prediction. I remember one time, like, who was, I think Lady Trader said, like,
outrageous predictions usually do not come true.
I mean, anything's possible.
But the same thing, too, is, like,
to not really rebuke David's point,
but he said it's possible by the end of the year for 10K.
So you'd still theoretically be okay, even if you went that low,
if you just ECA'd now until the end of the year. You'd have some, assuming, I think he thinks we'd still theoretically be okay. Even if you went that low, if you just DCA now
until the end of the year, you'd have some, assuming, I think he thinks we'd come back too.
So, I mean, I think it, it falls within the normal range of a normal time of a bear market,
you know, eight to 12 months. And that's just not a typical Bitcoin bear market. You know,
that's a typical stock market bear market as well. Gold typically as longer bear markets, I think physical boring stuff as typical, you know, longer bear markets.
So there's that point. Um, I mean, you know, that's the thing I would say there's going to be
always, you know, extreme calls all the time. I mean, you scroll through Twitter. I, I, I was
cracking up because I saw some posts, you know you know some they just took some like old cherry pick thing from years ago and said that bitcoin was going to 500k by
the end of this year because of it and this is why ta gets such a bad rep sometimes because
there's so many people that'll just take random chart stuff and just copy and paste and it has
nothing to do with anything that's not even even TA. That's just, okay.
That's basically like astrology at that point.
Like, that's not even science beyond it.
It just cracks me up.
That's why I was just trying to ask, like, does he or anyone think this is going to be worse than last year's tariff capitulation?
Where, again, NASDAQ fell off a cliff negative 25 s&p 500 same thing
but if we go back and look bitcoin uh it came down to 80k yes but it held its floor while nasdaq
and s&p 500 fell another 30 days bitcoin you're talking about when we came down to 74? Yeah, well, it had a week or two, but ADK was still the weekly low.
Beginning of last year, right? Yes.
Beginning of last year, yes. Now, the structures are very different
though. I want to know. For sure. But that's why I was just asking
does he think it's going to be that or worse? Because if it's not, I don't see 10K.
Well, let me put it this way.
When belief becomes mandatory, the truth becomes a liability.
If you know, you know.
And those become paradigms at highs and lows.
So I don't think we're there quite yet to the bottom.
But like I said, when the belief that everybody has to believe that we go lower,
you know, is kind of probably our bottom because that truth becomes a liability, boys.
Can I just say, like, I guess 10K is possible, but there's nothing in the chart that says it's possible.
Like the history.
If BTC is at 10K, man, like markets are over.
Yeah, like completely. It's it. I mean, like something mean like something outside the chart you need something wabi you need something outside of the chart
to come to the conclusion is kind of all i'm saying yeah like here's the thing we've never
had something that was trading at trillions in market cap going back down to like sub 100 mil like that's retarded
like that's completely ridiculous that's like alice in wonderland bitcoin's going to 10 mil
in a year type i'm sorry man at some point i have to put my foot down dude um it's great entertainment
and all that but like when people start having aneurysms on stage
it's like all right i gotta give it a break i just wanted to say this is the because because
bitcoin space you know we gotta defend 10k we gotta defend it a little bit yes dude i have to
man at that point it's like like all right first off like if b BTC goes to 10K, Larry Fink is going to prison.
I don't think that's the case.
I think the bottom is between, like, mid-40s to early 50s.
And that's that.
I've got my reasons for it.
And I'm going to catch that bottom just as I did during FTX,
That bottom, just as I did during FTX, just as I did during that March 2023 low when stablecoins were de-pegging by 30%.
Remember that, Matt, with Silvergate and all that shit?
Same thing with the yen carry trade low and the Liberation Day low where me and Donnie, if you remember, Matt, me and donnie were here um on that first monday
in april arguing with danish and like all the other trad fight guys and tina was here yelling
how the s&p is going to go to 34 3600 i remember everything man I remember every single extremity point
And it is what it is right like we all understand assets are gonna be up and to the right for the long term and all that stuff but what happens in between that's what makes the story you know, but I
do think it's kind of like
irresponsible to say an asset's going to go down literally 99% because of volatility or whatever,
Irresponsible to say an assets gonna go down literally 99%
and just not accept any counterargument or just say like, hey, I'm wrong at this invalidation.
You can't speak in infinites when it comes to extremities.
Anyone in 2021 said, hey, Plan B's rainbow chart says that we're going to a million dollars.
Willy Woo just extracted on-chain data between miners
suggesting that Bitcoin can go as high as $200K by the end of 2021.
And none of that stuff came true, man.
Just none of it.
There is a middle ground right but when when the nasdaq went
down 85 percent um post.com the market was completely different the job market was completely
different you don't have the uh you did not have the um the gig economy you did not have the gig economy. You did not have as many jobs as you do now.
America back then was just experiencing a surge in the job market.
That kept on getting stronger and stronger and stronger.
Don't even get me started during Obama's second term.
All the startups that launched, that was just this huge gap of
job creation same thing with trump he's a jobs creator president people people will have their
theories like oh you know in the 80s this happened in 90s this happened it's like dude that happened
yesterday it's like saying the undertaker can still main event wrestlemania but he has two messed up knees two hip replacements and a broken
neck yeah he can go at it right because you've seen the undertaker perform over the last few
decades but it's not the same guy you know markets change um you just have to accept why i don't even
think the nasdaq went down what dr.com bubble, the Nasdaq was, what, 85% down?
That would equate to, like, a 20-something K Bitcoin.
It wouldn't even, you know what I mean?
Yeah, and to say that, like, Bitcoin's going, like, to below 10K, like, oh, man.
I don't think, like, Wabi, you've got to go outside the chart to get to a 10K.
to get to a 10k like there's nothing to chart in the history of bitcoin like you would need like
Like, there's nothing in the chart or in the history of Bitcoin.
michael say it's a full stack his btc be held at gunpoint you would need um all the texas data
centers to be blocked like you would need some anomaly like that man and or like satoshi coins
moving or quantum hack of satoshi's coins or something yeah right even even then like i think
we just bounce back to all-time highs in a year if that were to happen and i just say real quick
when i couldn't talk earlier you mentioned gunner i want to vouch for him he's really good um gunner
does uh really strong like like good classical chart and ta and both like equities and crypto
he's really strong um so i just want to say that you guys mentioned
him and a bunch of people hadn't heard of him he's i'm probably going to interview him on my
youtube he's solid um and then i just want to say there is it's it's actually logical to make that
may 2022 comparison i'm not sure who said it but it actually does kind of make sense from a momentum
standpoint where it just kind of looks like we have another failed um like local bounce with bitcoin where you tried to get
above 71.5 it's just like it hasn't had any follow-through right um and because i still feel
like we're in the middle of the correction i know matt thinks was it mad you think we're like 60k
bottom or was it um prometheus who said that man yeah matt thinks i mean it could it's logical
because it's 2021 highs i just think it's not enough of a cut after losing the weekly 50,
just kind of based on how Bitcoin has historically performed,
if that makes sense.
Hey, guys, I do have a question.
I just want to kind of ask you questions.
The first thing is, when you talk about 10K price it just i think we lose careability in space
specifically in this live stream because that doesn't even make sense so anytime somebody says
10k this is just completely off booted off there's no way bitcoin would ever be 10k that's just
it's not it's not a conversation um my my actual question is around the stock market specifically.
A lot of people are calling it a crash to the stock market, specifically S&P 500.
So I'm wondering, how can S&P crash when Max 7 are already down like 25%?
They're trading at almost all-time low P-E ratio.
NVIDIA is trading at 16-time forecasted P-E ratio. NVIDIA is trading at 16 times forecasted PV ratio. The CapEx spend for like all the MAG-7,
it's around hundreds of billions dollars on AI infrastructure. So it looks like the big dogs
are actually kind of spending money on AI and they see the bigger picture. So I don't really
understand the correlation when people say, hey, you know, the stock market will crash or you,
S&P will crash at a certain point. What are you guys' thoughts around that?
Hey, are you in the arcades?
Are you at the arcade right now?
I'm at the gym right now, but sorry if the signals are not good.
Oh, okay, okay.
That's all right.
I thought you were in the arcade.
No, I'm not in the arcade, man.
Matt, I think you would know more about that man because i know like
you can actually have uh the indices only down like five percent but you can have
select names down like 30 percent 25 percent i don't know how the dynamics of that work to be honest.
Zplo, what's up, man?
What's going on, guys?
I hopped in a little bit earlier.
I didn't know if anyone spoke about the big BlackRock news today,
but obviously that's, I mean, anytime you're talking about.
With the withdrawal things?
That's never happened in history. Uh-oh.
You know, typically in the crypto space, when we see, oh, a company's halting withdrawals, I mean, that's, like, pretty close to something major happening.
I mean, BlackRock has never had a fund that they just all of a sudden, withdrawals to 5% prior to that.
So some pretty big news in that department there.
I don't know, man.
No clue.
If it was going to be big news, then I guess we'd be trading at like 40k right now
and that's the bottom i mean let the bottom happen immediately to be honest just lobby
there's uh can i just say real quick you can't look we had 38 weeks of consolidation in this
price range there's just no way we were going to cut through it quickly even if it's going where
i think it's going to go right if you look back and all the time bitcoin spent
from in 2024 was like 38 weeks it was always going to bounce here it's just been for me at least it was always going to bounce here just a question of strength um you know in the follow
through like how you know can't even break the ema8 right on the weekly for example but it's
it was never going to cut through here quickly if that makes sense
never going to cut through here quickly, if that makes sense.
Yeah, I understand what you're saying, Chuds.
JB, I see you're a fan of the cheesy gordita crunch.
Oh, yeah.
That's the good stuff.
Yeah, anytime I get Taco Bell, man, even though it's pure slop, I just don't eat the meat.
I just don't eat the meat. Yeah don't eat yeah i wanted to talk about black rock so that
fun that pause distributions today that that's kind of in the perspective that they're allowed
to you know cap distributions or cap redemptions to five percent so it's kind of like a non-event
yeah i i thought like people were comparing this to like celsius or whatever
um and if black rock goes down then i guess we just go through 2008 in like six months and then
we reverse to new highs and in like eight months or something like that well um evan go see chad's matters anything else that you guys want to say
uh before i i mean short term i'm looking for maybe a little jump to 69.
But, yeah, I guess I didn't talk about real short term.
But the daily looks like it's going to roll over.
I mean, I guess it's possible to see one last run up to 74, 75.
But, eh, looking kind of cooked.
I think the next two weeks, we really got to see, you know, what ends up happening.
So, yeah.
Shaz, anything you want to say?
Yeah, I think we're going 55K pretty soon.
I think that seems to me like in 75% likelihood
that we go 55K, which is the bottom of that range.
Probably bounce again into the underside around here, mid-60s.
We'll see what happens there.
Number one.
Number two, again, thank you to wabi for putting
together content um it takes a lot of work so thank you thanks man no problem uh ghosty i don't
think you had a chance to speak what's up what's up wabi yeah just to finalize here because i know
you're gonna wrap up soon so like i have said in different spaces, like the USDT dominance chart, like the stablecoins chart has served as a really, really amazing macro guide of where potentially Bitcoin is heading.
And I was talking yesterday, like right now we're forming a potential bull flag on that chart and we still haven't hit 2022 highs on the stablecoin chart which was around 15 so if we don't if that if the price
doesn't get there for me uh the baron is not in yet in a higher time frame
that's based man um hopefully we all capture some good opportunities in this market from here all the way through the end of the year.
And something to end, Wabi, actually.
My base case, I'm more aligned with chats in terms of potential pricing on Bitcoins.
Chats, he said like 35K, something like that.
I also, that's my base case.
But something that I'm considering as well,
I have to be open-minded.
Like I remember back people that bought Microsoft,
just as an example, back in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003,
had to wait a lot of time to break even and another example would be like
i remember gold back in 2011 at a nine trillion dollar market cap or something around there
people that bought gold at that time also had to wait a long time to break even so i mean maybe
given so i mean maybe that could potentially happen on bitcoin as well and i like i said
that's not my base case but like we have had similar things happening in really solid assets
before thanks for coming on man and giving your thoughts i want to thank all the speakers thank you all so
much chad's evan matt go see david prometheus thank you all so much thank you thank you thank
you guys i'm gonna go ahead and wrap up the show if you've been if you've been enjoying the content
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