Hey, what's up mark? How are you brother? Hey? What's going on bro? I'm good. How are you?
And doing great man doing absolutely fantastic
Pretty excited brother. We're about three weeks away from the having and
Catch a massive bid today. I kind of feel like soul is about to
I'm pretty heavily allocated to Solana now
And I think that it's probably gonna break an all-time high before B&B and yeah excited for the discussion man
How are how are you today, brother? How's how's the market looking like man? It seems like it's probably the last
Few remaining days before we had to new highs in my opinion, man
I'm taking a look at things like a micro strategy and
You know, I think that thing that stock in particular is basically like taking a peek into
Bitcoin's future. I kind of think of it as like, you know the real Bitcoin ETF
Yeah, I mean like I guess talking about BTC I mean as long as we kind of hold above 69k
I don't really see a reason to de-risk. I think
Markets are showing that you know, you should be risk on and putting your foot on the gas pedal now
I actually disagree with the sole thesis. I think that there's actually better coins to long on that
And I've been I mean, I think you know soul will do well
It'll go up but in terms of outperformance, I think it's gonna lag a couple other metas as well
like in specifically like I'm mainly concerned with defy coins and
They've just been continuing to rip up more like define RWA that thesis those coins just keep going up
Like if you look at Ando, for example, if you look at rune maker, like these coins are just consecutively putting in higher highs higher lows
so yeah, I'm hoping I'm hoping that it still has some more legs to it because I got in pretty good at a good entry and
I sized in appropriately so
We'll see if that meta keeps going up if that narrative continues to gross some legs to it
But yeah, I've been seeing a lot of shields for near today as well
So let's see what happens with that. I think people are kind of rotating out of phantom into near
But we'll see we'll see but yeah
How about the markets been for you? Are you looking at anything in specific or just Solana for now?
Well, my soul position is probably like like 20%
My entire like net worth which is all in crypto right now
So it's really just something like I guess like quote-unquote capital preservation because I just refuse to hold any stable coins, man
You know being this close to like when true expansion happens
As far as like what I'm looking at I'm looking at
At like the BRC 20 and or no's
Eco, I've gotten some beef. I yesterday at like 42 cents
and that's down on the day, but
Probably only like like one two percent of everything that I have in this market
But it's a low cap and I think there's something to be said with
Bitcoin puppets and a few other or knows that have been chatting. I think like the tokens within the BTC ecosystem
But are doing cool shit, right? You've got stacks as an L2. You've got beef. I they're building like
Like a trading terminal and decks
Where people are gonna have like a one-stop shop to buy all these things with a nice interface
I think things like that are gonna catch quite a bit
You know, I'm willing to go through the volatility man. You've got
All of these alts just ping pong in a 20 30 percent intraday range, right?
And I think after the having you'll likely see more of a PvE
Style kind of like we had in I would say like the the latter part of February
When Easter started chugging along all of our alts did tremendous man and you know going into March
you had soul start to pop off and
Once you see soul start to pop off. It doesn't matter what you hold you're gonna do well, whether it's RWAs whether it's like
EVM stuff like a say or a suey. I'm sorry suey is not EVM. But you know all ones in general
They should do well, right? But
Short-term, I'm kind of looking at some alpha for
Ordinals and all that stuff. I've got two Bitcoin puppets that I bought for a few grand
Back in January and now that's turned into like like two-thirds
of a BTC which in my opinion is just
crazy, man, like you buy a you buy a JPEG and then you get airdrops and
people just go crazy over them just because they have somewhat of a
Virality effect whether it's the community whether it's the art the space has evolved so much in the span of the year and
I'm just grateful to be here man, but to touch upon your point with
You know near and all that stuff. I believe
Jensen the founder of Nvidia he had like there's a beam going around that he touched
The near founder's arm and then it's like he gave them the blessing or whatever and it's like it's so crazy, man
Crypto projects can just pivot into a new narrative and then they just start to Chad like crazy, right?
one ticker called Bosa and protocol and I think they did NFT is less cycle and now all of a sudden they're like
RWAs and all that stuff and they've pumped like
Almost 3x over the last weekend. It's just telling how like quickly the space
Pivots when it comes to these narratives and it's like one week
It's RWAs the next week. It's layer one the next week. It's ordinals and all that stuff
And I feel like everything is just gonna come full circle
Probably like I would say next month
But yeah, as far as on though goes man, I know you have a pretty big position on that
I've got a target for on dough
in the next 12 months of like ten to fifteen dollars, you know a clean ten to fifteen accent
There's probably gonna be some like newer RWA stuff. There's just one project that I'm like super super bullish on
they've recently been doing a lot of like spaces and all that stuff and
They're gonna do a lot of stuff with like AI compute and all of that
And that seems to be a pretty heavy narrative within the crypto AI space. So
Yeah, that's that's what I'm looking for man. And
Yeah, fully deployed fully fully fully deployed
Within the market right now. Yeah, that's cool, man
Yeah, I actually closed my on dough long because it started to look a little bit shaky at the top
So I actually rotated out of that but I do think that we'll see a rotation away from Seoul and all these
Current coins that the market is kind of pivoting towards I think we see them go back to aetherium to be honest
And I mean if has been lagging but like I'm just looking at the chart right now on a trading view
But I mean, it's basically reclaiming its daily trend again
I BTC already did that a lot of alts did but if has been kind of lagging
So I think ETH might be a good catch-up play as much as we say, you know, don't chase beta
Don't do things like that. I mean, you know with aetherium
It's fine because it's you know, the second largest currency in the space
But yeah, honestly, I think that we'll see these alts bleed against aetherium and it's interesting that you kind of compared
Like the alt seasons beginning when Solana starts outperforming because that's something that I also
Saw and noticed happening
Beginning of October, you know, it was really just those three coins. It was Solana
It was rune and I believe I and J
I mean those three coins kind of sparked off the whole rally for Oh and link as well those four. Yeah
So those four coins kind of like sparked off the rally that we had and back in October November December
Where you know alts pull these tremendous moves
So right now I'm just kind of evaluating and trying to figure out what the next batch of coins are gonna be because I don't
Think it's gonna be Solana anymore. I think it's already kind of lost its appeal for
Being a I guess a market wide gauge for you know, how risk on
You know the players in this game are
So we'll see what happens about honestly
I think that aetherium could kind of reclaim that spot as being the coin that people watch as an indication of whether
Liquidity is becoming more risk on you know, people want to gamble on alts
Hopefully it is. I mean if you look at ETH BTC, it's been kind of
pressing on its local lows again, and it looks it looks really bad, but I
Mean, you know, I've learned in a bull market even when you see charts like that
We're just pressing against range lows continuously like, you know in a bear market that usually leads to more downside
But you know when conditions are like this you kind of have to believe so me personally
I rotated my Solana my I rotated all my soul I think at
190 or 200 something like that, but I rotated it into stables and now I'm slowly starting to bid
Aetherium here because I really don't think it goes below 3.5 for a while
And to be honest like it's just screaming along for me
so yeah, I've kind of rotated a lot of my stuff into and
It's mainly defy coins and a lot of the theorems as well
Cuz I think if is about to catch up tremendously and I mean like there's a visible catalyst
I mean you have to have having for BTC, but you also have this ETF decision
Coming in May for aetherium and I mean, yeah, whatever it might get rejected. But today I
Think the CFTC sued Kucoin and in the report they were mentioning how aetherium is a commodity not a security
so even if they do reject the ETF in May like
It's still gonna get overturned later and eventually the ETF will get approved because the the basis in the grounds that the
SEC is, you know using this to you know, deny the ETF
They're like they're invalid, you know
So I really do think we'll see aetherium start to catch up and it'll be interesting to see how that kind of
Starts off whether it's gonna be ETH BTC going up first or you know, ETH against its USD pair
Sparking off, but we'll see I've kind of I mean, yeah, I'm basically an aetherium bull now
So we'll see if it burns me, but I really do think we'll see a nice revanche rally on aetherium soon
Yeah, we've got a few liquidity callous for ETH and I'm of the opinion that this ETH ETF gets launched and
You know the fact of the matter is the official deadline for the approval for the ETH spot ETF
Isn't May right? So if we just take a look at what happened with BTC
Right in January, I think we see a huge run-up going into the approval or quote-unquote denial
And then probably a sharp sell-off just like we saw with the BTC ETF
And it's just so funny mark how like these massive decisions are always
inner crypto liquidity events, right we had the blast unlock which unleashed over a billion dollars of ETH liquidity a
Few weeks after the BTC approval and then we have Eigen layer
That's going to be launching their mainnet in q2 and that has like over five billion dollars worth of
ETH that's going to be unloaded onto the market and
If we just put two and two together and you know
We saw what happened with the blast unlock. It was basically like two weeks of up only where meme coins EVM is anything you had
just seemed to catch a massive bid man, and I think
History is gonna prove itself once again
And I actually I posted a chart up on the mess if you want to if you guys want to check it out
that's everything excluding BTC and ETH against against the Bitcoin pair and
That is a very telling chart in my opinion
I think that's probably gonna offer more signal for the broader altcoin market rather than ETH BTC
And just given the fact that like ETH BTC has just been paying calling out range lows for a couple of months now
if if people just looked at ETH BTC they would have missed out on so many rotations and
You know with this chart right here
Like you'll see that with a few weeks that you know
You see some grain, you know, a lot of rotations have happened, right?
Like the meme coin AI rotation happens you saw the modularity and EVM rotation happened
You saw the INJ and you know, the other platform rotation with Celestia and all that stuff happen in Q4 and
Total three against BTC going back
To 20 million. I think that's a clean indicator of how much longer we have to go
for this cycle because like
Everyone's goal in this market should be to out trade BTC
You know whether you're in ordinals whether you're in crypto gaming or RWAs or defi or whatever
because there's always a time in the cycle where
Some of these sectors top out before Bitcoin and they just start bleeding, right?
One ticker that I traded last cycle was S and X
Synthetics Network and they do a lot of or back then they wanted to do like
Synthetic derivatives like trade the stock market and all that stuff and borrowing and lending and all that
they're one of like the first OG defy platforms and
It ran out from like four cents all the way to almost thirty dollars in the span of 18 months
and it peaked in February of 21 and after that it just bled to hell against BTC once BTC got over like
And same thing with link right link reached 20 bucks in August of 2020 and just bled against BTC the rest of the cycle
So, you know, there's that to keep in mind as well, but I think
Looking at looking at the broader market against Bitcoin
I think that's gonna be pretty pivotal rather than just one ticker cuz like we've seen just how much Solana has stolen market share
From ETH rights take a look at the sole ETH pair that thing is just astronomical man
But you know just taking a look at BTC and knowing that we're now able to do the same stuff or most of the same
Stuff that we are on ETH right bidding shit coins bidding NFTs
I know there's not really like a borrowing lending market
But for the most part right like bidding shit coins and NFTs you're able to do that on BTC on the base layer
So that's a little something to look at but Mark, let me ask you this man
Have you been looking at ordinals and BRC 20s and all that stuff or do you usually just like focus?
Like one sector at a time
Yeah, I mean I I was pretty early into the space as well
Into that niche. I was buying a lot of Bitcoin frogs back at
Like 0.1 0.2 BTC so before they pumped to I think 0.5
So after that happened, I kind of you know realized that okay, you know
There's a lot of attention now rotating into ordinals
You know the Bitcoin frogs pump was probably just a test pump for the overall market in general
But I did I saw puppets early, but I didn't get into them until they moved up a lot already
But yeah, I hold a bunch of I hold a bunch of their niche collection the the opium ones
Like I they have like a smaller collection of it has a I think it's a
And they're basically the same monkeys like they're the same puppets except they just hold papers and said that said like that say different things
But I just bought them because they're more niche. But yeah, I hold a couple of those
I have some of the RS ICs as well
So yeah, I actually am pretty exposed to that whole meta
And I guess that that's like my only hedge, you know for my aetherium thesis being wrong
But honestly, it's one of my it's one of my highest conviction bets right now
I just don't think that the market is fully pricing in an approval and it seems like most have just kind of
Capitulated on it like they're not
No, it even talks about a theory many anymore. No one charts it really
It's mainly just BTC soul and all these other all it's you know, total three total two
But you know, honestly, even if they do reject the ETF
I still think there's a good trade a good valid trade for longs to take
Before that, you know decision comes out because as we get closer to the date, you know
People are gonna have to ask themselves. Okay, am I underway to theory and what happens if you know
They do approve the ETF, you know, just how would BTC did right when it rallied up a lot before
And then people started saying oh this might be a sell the news event
I mean, yeah, it rallied up before because people realize they don't own enough BTC, right because
Maximum pain for them is higher because okay if if they reject the ETF, okay
Maybe I get to buy that 30% candle down, but if they approve it, you know, I'm you know
Like I don't have any positions. I'm just gonna get sidelined, right?
So I think we'll see the same thing happen with
Ethereum as well. I think a lot of people are underweight, but no one really talks about it as well
so we'll see what happens but
You know, I've been building this aetherium long for a bit now
And I think it's the perfect time to do it considering that, you know
If BTC is pressing those range lows and you know sooner than later people are gonna have to ask themselves. Okay
Am I underweight aetherium? Like what happens if they approve the ETF? Am I just gonna like is my Solana gonna outperform?
Is he gonna underperform, you know, like people will have to start asking themselves those questions. So we'll see what happens but
Yeah, I mean I have exposure to a lot of different metas
So I'll be okay if this thesis doesn't really play out but anyways guys I have to leave
But I appreciate you guys having me on as a speaker
Yeah, no problem brother it was great catching up man and
I'll say this one final thing before I pass on over to doc now, but
There's something to be said when you see ETH outperforming
If you take a look at February once the ETH started to Chad think ETH on the month of February went up like
40-50 percent something like that and you know at that tail end of the pump during ETH Denver
Oliver all started to do well, so
Hopefully that same stuff can happen man more of a PVE environment man, but yeah, take care mark
It was great having you on brother. You're always welcome at any time man. So
Doc what's going on brother? How are you? Not much man? How you doing? Mark? We'll chat one day. We keep missing each other
We'll chat one day. Oh here to you left. Oops. But yeah, Wabi. I'm good, man. How are you?
Fantastic man, we're about three and a half weeks away from the having so I think
There's no there's no alpha and like trying to reduce risk in my opinion this close out from the having
In my opinion like if you want to reduce risk, man
Like I would say probably BTC at like 85 K and alter significantly higher
just just if you think that like
We're gonna have a steep correction before 100 K. A lot of people might front run that at like 85 90 K
We might have like a significant correction around that time, but right now dude during chop
Bro, I think a lot of people make the mistake of
getting chopped up on Lev and
Overly rotating with a significant part of their of their net worth from sector to sector trying to chase man
Those are kind of like my short-term thoughts right now. I sort of feel like we're in like early February, right?
so it's like chop before expansion to the upside because for a while man from
Late January, it's early February. We were really struggling and like the mid 40s in the mid 40s range for Bitcoin
Yeah, man few things there
I just want to say number one
Can we take a minute to show some gratitude for 70 K Bitcoin and the having come up coming up?
Like I know we've been here for a minute
I know we hit 70 K a little while ago, but it's still surreal to me that we did survive
FTX and Luna and Celsius and 3ac and the USDC dpeg and we sat at 20 K and 18 K
and we wondered if there'd be another cycle and
Now BlackRock came and set up an ETF and we've got these flows and we've got new money and we're sitting at 70 K
And the halving is just around the corner
I think we all need to like count our blessings and be a little more show a little more gratitude on the timeline
Like it's a little frustrating to see people still with bitter attitudes out here
Like mid maxing and fighting over coins and stuff like that. I think we could all show each other a little bit more love
So I just want to say that right off the bat
The next thing you said was like kind of the trade around the halving
I don't personally make it a habit to try to trade
Sentiment or trade events too much like the one caveat will be certain
Sell the news events that are super obvious like like an ETF sell the news or like an ETH merge sell the news like those
Kind of things are a little obvious. The halving is a little little shaky, right?
I wouldn't know one way or the other how to position myself for that
So I'm gonna do what I always do and let the charts show me right?
I'm just gonna I'm gonna stick to the system system says risk off. I risk off, right?
There's nothing more to it than that
If I add more and more variables into the equation all I'm gonna be left with is analysis paralysis
So just keep the main thing the main thing
For me someone who trades based on charts and not sentiment
I'm just gonna be focused on that and not too much about Oh
What can occur around the halving because no one knows and anyone who's trying to tell you or give you predictions
That they do know is in my opinion full of shit
So that's where I stand with those two things
I know you mentioned one more thing, but I kind of forgot what you said at the end there. I
Think I mentioned the total three against Bitcoin I went on a bit of a
The the one thing I heard you and Mark talking about was the the ETH trade and the ETH BTC trade and just my two cents
On that is the sentiment there around ETH does not match the charts whatsoever
You know with the really funny thing is the October 16th
I believe maybe 20th, I forget the exact day the day that that
Coin telegraph intern released, you know the news about blackrock and ETF that fake news headline
Since that day ETH and BTC are up almost the same percent like within 5% of one another all ETH BTC is done
Is range in like a 10% range at the lows. It's not being destroyed by anything else
A lot of people are coming up to this like whole soul ETH narrative
Oh, yes Solana's dominating ETH but they forget that a bunch of other L1s dominated ETH
Last cycle in the bull market a Vax ETH was up only in 2021
You know Solana ETH last cycle did really well as well B and B ETH did really well last cycle as well
So it's pretty much par for the course
And the ETH BTC bottom last cycle almost took a year as well
If you guys look at like from the point that it actually bottomed it ranged for almost 300 days
Don't quote me on that, but I want to say it's around 250 to 300 days
Ranging at the bottom there. It's pretty much doing the same thing. I think we're at like 180 days right now, so
We're really not seeing anything different
But the narrative and the sentiment is completely ass backwards. It is not matching the charts. It's not matching the historical
Whatsoever, so I think there's just opportunity and I think you know, it's interesting ETH is gonna eventually
I know this has been a recycled thing from some of the more ETH prone
Traders, but eventually it will have its own kind of hated rally at some some given time
Whether that's sparked by the ETF approval like going into the ETF approval or not. I can't tell you
But it will have its own rally. You just need to be patient with it
It's not anything that the market hasn't seen before
But that's just my two cents on that
Hey man, if ETH pumps man Pepe goes even higher absolutely
It went when you play so heavy in the altcoin space you start you start dabbling in the most
Dubious activities like pairing this against that pairing an NFT against an alt and you know
I know you chart Pepe pretty closely as do we here at BB
But it seems that Pepe moves in tandem not only with ETH but also
The malady floor which is just like
The craziest thing I've ever seen yet you've got no nothing. I just say that's a that's a funny
So I haven't noticed that that it moved with maladies
But now that you mentioned that that's probably right because I own a bunch of maladies and ramelios too
And they were pumping the exact same time as Pepe. It's a good observation. I didn't I didn't even think about that
Ramelios and maladies I had gotten some at the bottom in December of 2022 just to like
Have some fun and I didn't even like actually own them. I just sent some ETH to a friend
To get me a few and then when they started going crazy when Pepe came out. I'm just like shit, man
This is this is wild like I can hold an altcoin for like a 20 to 30 X
But if an NFT, you know does that same move? I kind of think that like I
Get in this like mid curve mindset with NFTs where it's like if it goes up in an extreme amount of time
That's like the top and that's it and sometimes they end up doing like an extra two to three acts
So I don't really want to make that same mistake
With puppets and I kind of think that puppets are basically what maladies were
around this time last year or at least that was like
The mindset that I put myself in right
Man, let me let me ask you this but I know you look at a lot of charts and all that stuff man. How how is
How is our good buddy Celestia doing man?
I've been taking a look at the BTC pair and I just can't help but think that like the thing is
Gonna set out to reclaim the eyes a lot quicker than we think man. What are your thoughts on on that?
I know you've been following it for yeah, so
I'm pretty excited. This is the first time I position in Celestia
Right around 13. It came at an interesting time because
Celestia was already in kind of a bearish market structure on the daily and the weekly
And that was combined with the the kind of sell-off that we had over the last few weeks, right?
The very hopeful or or kind of interim bullish thing is the reaction that you saw from like 11 6 like
Obviously brain dead obvious, you know support level that anyone can see on a chart big bounce from there
I think this is your bottoming structure, right?
I think this is gonna be your reaccumulation bottoming structure if you get 11 again 11 12 13
This is the time to accumulate Celestia is the biggest name in the modularity space. It's gonna be the leader
It's gonna continue trading. Well, I don't think it's cycled
I think it's actually opportunity for anyone right now who is underexposed or has never had exposure to the modularity narrative, right?
What you guys see in in these cycles is like kind of a double season for all the narratives
If you remember last year in q1, we had an extremely strong AI narrative
More coins like fat ocean render did really well in q1 of last year. That was kind of our AI season number one, right?
Modularity had like its first season in q4 where Tia just went absolutely bonkers, right?
RWA is having its first season right now
RW is gonna have a second season one day modularity is gonna have a second season one day and AI
In fact just had its second season, right? We just had another full-blown second season of AI
So, you know meme season part two is gonna come one day
RWA season part two is gonna come one day modularity season part two is gonna come one day
Do you want to buy when prices are depressed and people are not looking at them?
Or do you want to buy when the timeline is shilling it to you when they're like to 3x up?
Like I positioned in APT at nine dollars off the chart and saying look this will get like l1s will get a rotation
And it looked painfully obvious to me at nine dollars that this thing was bottomed and was gearing for a rally
And now I see APT being shilled on the timeline at eighteen nineteen dollars and that's just par for the course
That's how these things work
You can let the timeline tell you when to buy or you can just focus on charts and focusing on bottoming structures and buy at
That time and just be patient
So that's kind of my approach on Tia is like it's out of favor right now
I think it's bottoming out. It doesn't mean that it has to go to $100 tomorrow
But I'd rather position when it's bottoming out first is trying to chase it when people are shilling it on the timeline
Yeah, I think the way it bounced off of about ten bucks was just amazing or ten bucks and change
So right around the yeah, it literally the yearly open. Yeah
Yeah, yeah, and usually like when you have certain things test the yearly open after
You know run up because I know it hit like 21 bucks and change last month
I think it was just like a deviation above the January high that tends to be a pretty good entry point
And you know, I think if you're just playing Tia for like a 50% move
You know from above its all-time high, right? We're looking at
like thirty three thirty four bucks for Tia, so that's like a hundred percent like the small two and a half X from here, so
You know, I I made that same observation that you made man
That's a that's that's pretty that's pretty good that I'm hearing it from somebody else like
These markets do tend to move in
Multiple seasons right like if we take a look at injective the same thing happened with injective and even Solana, right Solana
After the 23 yearly open it went from eight bucks and changed to about 27 and then was basically ping-ponging from 12 bucks
mid-september late september
When it just started to go up only after that so
Same thing with I and J right yearly open was a dollar and change. It's about ten bucks in March
Doesn't really do much until October and then goes from like eight nine bucks
It's about 45 and now it's just been bleeding against BTC for the most part
And so as you as you t-pair just ping-pong in from 35 to like 50 bucks and you know when these things eventually move, man
The move up tends to be pretty violent so it's like
It's like we know what do you do? This is a question. I want to ask you like, what do you do?
Do you throw in a lump sum and just you know, let it ride and sit through the volatility or
Do you dollar cost average slowly or do you put in?
You know a chunk of change and then as your thesis starts to be proven, right?
Then you set your full position. How do you go about those things? Yeah, so there's a few ways to do it
One is you could wait for the bottom to form like, you know, the accumulation ranges
I'll give you the best example from 2020 to 2023 bunch of altcoins. We're in massive accumulation ranges, right?
So you can either wait for a break in structure like wait for
The lower high lower low structure to break form some higher highs on the weekly
Flip like the daily 100 moving average daily 200 moving average to set yourself up to be like, okay
We've now entered bullish market structure
We're more prone to break out of this range versus earlier in the range when everything was still bearish from a price action
or trend perspective, right so you can wait for those things, but you may not get as
Comfy or as low of an entry right these accumulation ranges can be extremely volatile a bunch of altcoins had like a
2x range basically from range low to range high was like a hundred percent move
If you're willing to to put capital at those range lows, you're never gonna get a better opportunity that correct
But you may have to wait some time, right?
You you may have to wait for moving averages be flipped market structure to break and this is on a very high time frame basis
So it's really up to you. I personally have done a combination of both
There's been coins like Pepe where at high high conviction in and I'm positioning off of those flood events
I'm buying when the devs are selling and it's deviating back into range
I'm buying when the whole pork PNDC bullshit is happening and it's deviating back into prior values, right?
What when we're getting these bullish reclaims, I'm buying those I'm not waiting for the breakout on Pepe because that's a high conviction trade for me
I want to squeeze out every dollar than I can when it eventually rallies
There's other things that I don't have as much confidence in where I'm just gonna say
I'm gonna allow the market to put in the breakout and then I'll join the markup cause right?
So it really depends on the exact coin that I'd be trading but I would do both or I have done both
With Kia, I just threw in a massive lump sum man
But yeah for the most part
Oh one more thing I can mention is like these things you were talking about how you know
For example Solana goes from seven dollars to twenty and it just ranges
I look at these things as you know
If anyone's familiar with auction market there is just like the markets is finding proper value for these coins, right?
An expansion is a re-pricing rally. You're taking an asset that the market values for example at like five dollars
You're re-pricing it to twenty twenty five dollars in a very short amount of time
When it gets to those twenty twenty five dollar region, you're gonna get a lot of volatility
You're gonna get a lot of people who find thirty dollars to be super expensive and they want to sell it
And people who have missed from five all the way up now mentally thinking. Oh wait, I've seen thirty. I've seen thirty
Fifteen sounds cheap, right? So they're defending fifteen other people are selling thirty eventually volatility compresses as this war between buyers and sellers
calms down money shifts elsewhere and the market now has repriced this asset at a flat value of twenty two dollars
For example, if you're following my like
Example here, right when that occurs right and a new spark is initiated it can get repriced again
That's kind of season two of what we're talking about like AI coins repriced one time range for half a year
repriced again Pepe was basically worth zero dollars had a rally to you know
1.5 billion repriced itself as a three four hundred million dollar token for half a year a year
It's repriced itself again now to about three billion. The market has to you know, find
Find a balance between buyers and sellers up here. You're gonna find a volatile 30 40 50 percent range
Eventually that'll calm down and you'll get ready to reprice again when the next spark or catalyst occurs
So it's pretty par for the course for these long ranges to form and the mistake
I see 99% of people making is getting shaken out or chopped up in the repricing ranges
They see something move and they're expecting that same momentum to continue and when it doesn't they think the coin is dead and they move on
But they've you know by the time they move on they've already wasted
You know who knows weeks months, you know banging their head against the wall in a range-bound asset expecting it to expand by the 10
They leave who knows maybe it expands then so
Patience man, the key of that whole thing is just just be patient
Stick with your guns and most people honestly should not be trading in a bull market because this month this market has so much opportunity
You know, it's really it's really just max greed for someone to be like
Oh, yeah, my coins are going up 7x 10x, but their coins are going up 15x
I need to rotate I need to beat that because you're just gonna lose
Bull markets for 99% of people they should just not be trading in my opinion
Yeah, I agree with you on that especially like
Psy-opping people like oh man, you know, the numbers on the screen this guy did like a 5x or whatever and thing is like
Like for leverage, I think it should be used as a tool and not really something that's like that's like abuse
Right because as you mentioned that a lot of these tokens they have they go through these massive ranges
We're like if you just put in a swing long with like 2x leverage 1.5 x leverage
You know, there's a chance that there could be a wick on that exchange that just completely wipes you out, right?
So man, you know talking about
Repricing and consolidation and all that stuff man, and we're talking about modularity
I know you had covered dime quite a lot man, and I think
Dime is likely in a situation similar to NTRN was last year
Where it releases has a small pump and then does nothing for months and months and months and you know when it goes this thing
Is gonna absolutely fly and if we talk about if we talk about like modularity
a second run-up and dude, nobody knows what modularity it even is man, and I've spoken to some of these teams in person and
Let me tell you this dude
all they do is they grab some kid who recently graduated from like a tech school and they feed him a script and
Then they pay for his flights to go to conferences and they just talk nonsense that nobody even knows about it
For whatever reason these VCs love it and at some point they all pump
And just take a look at Aptos right like nobody knows what movies or anything like that
But it pumped from like three bucks
To 20 in a matter of weeks last year in January and then did nothing for about a year and you know
Now it's on a tear and it's probably gonna make a new all-time high when it's all said and done
So, you know these corrections on a on a time-based perspective can take a lot longer
I just take a look at injective man. We're coming up on four months
for one I and J first hit, you know 40 bucks and
You know just imagine just holding I and J for all these months man. Just
bleeding against most of these other narratives that have happened since then so
What are your thoughts on time man?
Yes, it's kind of the exact same thing we talked about earlier, it's just like market finding value, right it launched
You know, luckily I got an omexi and and maxi it launched at like 350 before it even launched on, you know, by bit and by Nance
People got airdrops like it's another thing where the market is trying to find value for these tokens
Between three dollars and I think nine was the peak. That's a big range, right?
You're seeing like if you just look at like a bird's-eye view of the chart you're seeing volatility decrease, right?
You're seeing between highs and lows volatility. Keep on compressing
That's the market finding value for dime or dim or I don't even know how to pronounce it
I say dim, but I guess dime makes more sense for dimension
But I think eventually you're just gonna break this downtrend, right?
You'll you will put in a macro higher high that's gonna lead to a larger range
Expand outside the seven or eight dollar value and you'll get yourself a trending asset, right?
That's looking for a new price. You're looking for new sellers to show up
But it just looks like a big accumulation of me for now like think back to
Arbitrum from last year it kind of more or less did the same thing
It basically was a dud for half a year a year after launching like it had one rally
I think around launched like 180 and did fuck all for like an entire year and then had a massive mark up
In q4. So I look at dimension just like that, too
It's just waiting for a spark and the spark for dimension could just be Tia bottoming, right?
Tia bottoms look strong again. That gives the entire sector strength
And if you're positioning off of like five dollars, I think is the lows right now
You're positioning off this a run just to range high is like a 2x, right?
It's just what we talked about a few minutes ago how these ranges can be extremely volatile, right?
So you could take two up you could take two approaches here
You could either position off range lows wait for high time frame trends to flip
And just wait for the pump to come to you eventually
You'll probably squeeze out more P&L from it that way or you could just wait for trends to shift
Bullishly and join the price action a little bit higher and you're not sitting there
Kind of like wasting opportunity costs in a coin. That's not doing anything while the rest of markets running
It's really up to you how you want to position in these things
But I mean, I think long-term five dollars sounds like a really good really good entry on dimension
Yeah, I'm searching for sectors
you know participated in this rally and
dude modularity has just eaten a fat stack of dog shit and
alarming because it wasn't that long ago where it was like, you know tea at a top 10 and
everybody and their mother was talking about dime and
Went to like over two bucks
It did like a 2x in a few days last month and it was like the talk of the town and now it's just like
Completely evaporated and usually when these things come back they come in
with brute force and then the markets like ah shit, you know time to rotate back and I feel like
That sector pops up and I and J starts to rally again
I think it doesn't matter what sector you're in. I think it's just gonna be more of like a
Environment, right? And I think the next catalyst is probably gonna be Eve
Breaking all-time high man. I think that's what we're all
Looking for cuz at that point man
Like everyone is just gonna make money
Despite like what people might think of the Eve like using it right now many people like using metamask and I
Made a I made a swap today and I ate like a few grand
in slippage and it is what it is and
it's like to the average person that's just like dog shit and
Yeah, I just think a lot of people are probably gonna start using Eve again
And you know a lot of these AI tokens, they're on eath right outside of tau
I know there's rap tau, but it's not really like the real tau and
Kind of wondering man like
Man are people really gonna go through all this stuff again, right paying
100% dollars in gas everyone's gonna chase the money. That's just the name of the game
Something that's dogshit one day is because the price is bad and it's not pumping and it's it's curing cancer the next day
Just because price is pumping
Narrative follows price. I'm a very firm believer in that. No one was like we were just talking about a PT
No one was talking about it till this week. No one gave a damn about a PT at $9
Everyone's talking about it today at $18 now move VM is the next narrative out of nowhere
Now suey's gonna catch a bid now people are gonna be looking at upcoming projects in that sector now
You're gonna be looking at beta. What do I buy on chain? Should I buy suey NFTs?
that's just how it goes right you can position yourself in these poor times where no one's looking at them or you can position yourself and
And have a strategy for chasing the pump or have a strategy for when that sectors risk on so for each
It's just the same thing like it's it's boring and we look, you know
We look down on it until we don't write one day magically
It's just gonna pump and it's gonna be like oh my god. Why did I why did I listen to the timeline?
Why did I get psy often thinking it was bad or etc. Etc. Oh, of course if is great
Of course he's this and that and it just flip-flops dude
It completely flip-flops and there's there's champions of ETH on the timeline
There's champions for salon on the timeline one gets louder when one pumps the other gets louder on the other pumps
I I take the approach to not think so deeply in like either factor. It's just for me
It's like I have my core core convictions in a certain amount of bags and everything else is just fair game and for fun for playing
Doc not to cut the conversation short, but I'm gonna get some other thoughts from other people on the panel here, man, but
It's going over to cool and then chill and then Sethi cool. What's going on brother? I see you
Pretty active on these Twitter spaces, man. What's up? How are you? Hey, what's going on, man? I love the
Darkers was was speaking some fire man. He was saying some some good stuff talking about projects
Projects being left for dead
Next thing, you know, they're going crazy, right? You know happen to Solana happen to suey happen to obtos
It always happens like that. So what I'm looking at right now, I've been active. Yes very active
It's been you know, no sleep. No sleep season
I just claimed another five digits airdrop this morning. I woke up check check my airdrop over 25 came in
Just like that from gaming
As you guys know, I've been farming gaming. I was a seed investor in gaming. So I got my tokens this morning and the airdrop
The farming airdrop was like 20 something K
But yeah, that's just the one the first thing and you know, just looking at timeline. I'm seeing people claiming
125 grand man, I'm a at for fucking airdrop, bro. No joke, man. There's twit this crypto shit is nuts
Yeah, I was left like two days mazes just be nuts, man
Yeah, so you also, you know
Play me the air drops, of course, but I love what doc was saying right now for me
I'm focusing on the stock nets ecosystem the stock it stock neck stock nets ecosystem, you know
But with all the drama, you know, there's a lot of forward with stock nets
But there's so much like there's no noise no noise and stock that's like zero by the same time opportunity is just
We're talking about 99 99 percent of the protocols have no tokens
99% only start that has a token and I think a loots and
ZK Len that's it everything else it from a cool bow a cool bow. I think it could finance
It's a it's a d5 protocol. That's that's how the huge investment from from from Uniswap
You have no straw like a V. There's so many of them on all these protocols that doing point systems
Such a easy easy the easiest money you can make right now in my opinion, right?
Of course, we have the social fire gaming
Parram and all that stuff or cool, but I'm looking at protocols. I'm focusing on the stock that ecosystems. I'm well
position in the in that ecosystem, but right now I'm just playing with
In lots of protocols that don't have tokens and I'm doing a social social fire farming. I mean, you're wabi
Yo, I mean just be able to claim 25 grand man. I mean, that's just nuts to me
Right just for free bro. All I did me was tweets. Well, I make some tweets every tweet. That was it
Like like what was the opportunity cost for gaming? Was it just like
Retreats and using the system or did you doubt your lobby wabi does it man?
Just a treating it was it was treat retreat like tag their tag their their handle
And it was just it was just you you you make a post about gaming you make it but that's it, man
That's it. That is it. That's all I did for like
Did that for like three weeks man three weeks both 25 grand this morning and you know what what's crazy?
What your wabi was was was was crazy about gaming is my allocation
Possibly could be worth a lot more than this because the trading volume of gaming is only like it's like
25 million that they're not even on Binance yet, man. That's crazy
So when when this happens, you know, we know what I mean is right on more and it there's gonna be a huge
Marketed push for gaming and block. There's so many of them. There's block. That's not the one that's coming out. There's a
Every journey backed by coinbase and Pantera and I think a 16 season is also in this
So it's it's like I said no sleep season
I'm if you sleep you're gonna miss out on the easiest cash you can make man, you know people again. I
List of space today, man. I remember his name, but he got a hundred and twenty five great, man
125 grand no joke, it's on my pay that tweeted it I do it this guy's face
I mean, it's just don't believe but all he did was make tweets, bro. This is
Remember the first time I had heard about
You know airdrops and all that stuff
Was a few weeks after I got into crypto
There was this project called the ontology and they were building on top of neo and
Just for subscribing to their newsletter again just subscribing to their newsletter, which was free of charge. Just put in your email
You got like two thousand
They debuted at about two dollars and ended up going to like 15 bucks
So you're talking about getting 35k for free and this was like early 2018 man
Yeah, yeah, so these these these protocols they don't care about giving you 25 125 K
All they wants is users and they're getting it
You're talking about gaming game is Twitter page as they probably see over a million followers now. They have a huge amount of
PR from this huge the same three of block
So this is what in lots of protocols want they want users they want
Mentions they want they want the eyes on your protocol. So these social products is not gonna stop
It's not gonna stop is all of my timeline 40k 48k crazy
If it if it if it helps pump the market higher, man, I'm all for it brother. Let's go
Let's get some thoughts from chill and then Sethi and then Matt and
Great to have you guys up on the panel if anybody else wants to come up and talk and you know
You're a familiar face. I'll bring you up to the panel man. So chill what's going on man another good day for EFI
Got in not too long ago. I think we have one of our guys on the team that actually
Did like their LBP or whatever?
I think it was like an IDO and he's up like a hundred X or something like that man, but
What's going on brother? I'm sure you're feeling good today, man. Yo, what's up? What's happening, man?
Hey, appreciate you bringing me up again pleasure to be here as always but
Yeah, man. I'm enjoying the markets like you guys were saying earlier. It's it's really all about
You know hodling versus trading in these bull markets a lot of times you try to trade you
You know end up cutting yourself cutting your portfolio up in half
Aping rugs when you know your long-term holds, maybe they're only doing two three X in the case of something like E5 from the LBP
We're talking just a just a little below 10 X
I mean it might not be as flashy as your hundred X hundred 50 X or whatever in two hours that you're your friend did or
You know or your fellow DJs did in the TG but yeah at the end of the day with these with these returns
They're safer. They're more short and and honestly, it's a lot. It's a lot less of a headache
You know just buy hold and and and you're good to go
So that's kind of my philosophy here and my my approach here with EFI
But you know round one I was I was you know banging the table about this at 12
We're now at a price point of
Everyone was everyone was really surprised when I told them a hundred to a thousand X in
Six to twelve months. We are now we have now crossed the hundred X point
Now what's even crazier is the other day. I just said
When we hit that dick on EFI
We are going another hundred X from here
So again, the thesis doesn't change you just hodl
You know let the markets volatility do what it does
But when you deeply understand the protocol when you've done the dating the research you realize that
You know EFI's relationship with with ample you realize that
Brian Armstrong is is a heavy heavy investor. He's made one
Personal investment into a crypto project that was ample
And you realize that EFI is based on that. It's it's had its foundation
You know deeply rooted into the ample ecosystem things are going great
EFI the the team is now one of the top ten holders of ample and I
Tweeted about this the other day, you know, essentially if I started the ample bull run, so
Doing doing great, you know, the the protocol is is
It's making great progress. You know, if you don't know anything about EFI
Hit my icon go to my profile. You'll see my pin tweet
It tells you literally everything that you need to know about EFI
Was the first person to talk about it on Twitter
You can backtrack to my post in what was it September of last year when I was banging the table and
You know aping this presale and you know, here I am
You know up up quite a bit and you know, I've gotten the DMS the comments saying hey
I'm gonna buy you a beer for getting me into EFI and all that good stuff
So I'm just glad that ultimately the community, you know is going well
basically just share my research and help others to
Understand the mechanics and everything that's going on
So they glad that the because Bitcoin team or or whoever on that, you know
Wabi that you're talking about glad that they ate with me. They're probably sitting pretty
And so yeah, I'll be monitoring. I'll be doing everything if I related, you know threads covering making sure that the mechanics are well understood
Because you can only make these kind of ridiculous claims or what could be perceived as ridiculous claims when you actually know what you're talking about
Like, you know, I've gone back to
you know, you can go back to my threads in 2022 where I was digging into ample and spot and
Brian Armstrong and the fact that you know Satoshi wanted to make ample but just didn't have the the
The technology at the time to do it
So a lot of a lot of deep dig in there
But it all paid off did all of that during the bear and here we are sitting sitting pretty in the bowl, man
So I'm ready for the rest of it. We still got another you know
I'd say 12 months or so give or take of all of this and just don't get you just don't get swept up
Don't get sidetracked it have a plan
Have some core holdings keep some capital free for you know
New narratives and you know some hot trending tokens or what have you or some memes and you're good to go man
Just don't lose your head
So, when do you expect you to make an all-time line then
Imminent imminent, you know, you have BlackRock basically, you know coming on chain. I mean
My I try to keep my thesis my thoughts very very simple BlackRock filed for an ETF
They have like an above 95 from 95 percent
Something even higher than that
I think they've only lost like single digit amount of cases of the hundred or a single digit amount of
They've only been denied a single digit amount of ETF filings when they filed hundreds of them, right?
So when they filed for one for a Bitcoin, it was very obvious that hey, they have a lot of confidence that they can
Even amongst the FUD even amongst, you know, the question marks around it
They felt like they could get it and they did that was also indicative of what went on in in the past due to
Their previous amount of ETF filings. I think it'll play out no differently here for ETH
Perhaps what I would like to see is that is the ETF get denied
In May and then approved later on this year. So it kind of gives everyone a reason to be bullish
So perhaps it doesn't get it gives everyone a reason to be bullish now
If we do see, you know, Matt last week was talking about kind of a summer retrace at the beginning of the summer
That could could that be, you know a time where you know
We see a bit of a retrace across the board on all so on either what have you could be but either way
We know that an ETF is coming right so that that keeps everyone bullish that keeps the price action going up
And if you keep your thesis simple doesn't matter when it gets approved
We know that it is getting approved. So better to buy now that we know BlackRock is literally on chain, bro
Like I cannot emphasize that more
And just take it for what it is. Don't try to overcomplicate it
Don't try to get fancy and you know, come up with some, you know, quote unquote contrarian thesis like it's very simple BlackRock
They know what they're doing. They have high confidence in the CTF more than likely it'll get approved and that will bring in an institutional
New level of institutional demand for ETH and don't forget institutions like yield
Yes, they do love Bitcoin as they you see with ETF, but they like yield you have ETH a native asset
You know generating yield for you. Your money's not sitting there. Not really sure how that plays out with being in an ETF
But I remember last year about a year ago actually at this point early last year institutions were heavily aping ETH
You know due to the yield
Post-emerge, so, you know, they're they're definitely interested. It's an asset that they want to hold and then that bodes well for for every other
You know all coin in the space. So perhaps maybe not this year maybe next year
Maybe the market top will be the you know a basket of crypto assets getting approved
In the form of an ETF so who knows where this leads, but you know institutions are here more
More are coming and you know that bodes well for you know assets like Bitcoin that we see that's performing asset
You know this year so far and I'm sure ETH will start to do its legendary outperformance
You know as we get closer to this this decision with the ETF as well
And I I've been entertaining a meme coin ETF is like
One of the biggest top signals for the cycle because at that point it's no longer a meme coin, right?
memes are designed to be an edge for crypto market participants and
You know for freshly onboarded retail to think that like all this is cool
This is hip or whatever and you know, if you institutionalize something like doge or whatever. It's just so
Disgusting man and that that would be nasty. I hope that doesn't happen. But for ETH
Feel free man. Same thing with DeFi and all that stuff
but leave the memes alone man, leave the memes of the people my opinion man, but
Let's go ahead and talk some stocks now, man. Matt. What's going on, brother?
We saw a coin stock and Robin Hood stock hit new year-to-date highs yesterday coin stock still
You know about 20% away from retesting the IPO high and you know, we've been discussing both hood and coin
since the lows in December of 2022 when people thought that coin was gonna go and solvent because of
some corporate bond yielding 25% or whatever which ah
To me was always just hogwash man. I just consider coinbase
Just another black rock company man. That's just that that's just the way I've
Viewed coinbase over the last
Like two years man. There's no other exchange that really has like that retail normie
Like interface and just overall vibes man Gemini is pretty bland
Kraken is pretty bland but
Coinbase kind of reminds me of like Robin Hood in the sense where it's it's basically gamified investing, right?
Like hey use our exchange and take these quizzes and you can earn like a hundred bucks or whatever
right, and I think Robin Hood and like that that that exchange specifically like
They have some thing where it's like if you sign up and you buy like a grand worth of stock
You're eligible to win like one share whatever or I think that's weebl
But I consider Robin Hood one of those
huh, I think the real music starts once those stocks hit all-time highs because I think a lot of
People that have just been dabbling in the equity markets and left crypto
Are bound to come back because I saw a lot of that stuff happen in 2022 a lot of crypto natives said ah, man
You know what? I'm tired of being rugs
I'm gonna go ahead and play equities and all that stuff and I think a lot of that crowd
That left Crippa went over crypto and went over to the equity markets
I think they're gonna come back once they see those stocks
Hit all-time highs and even just like equity
Natives, I think once they start seeing those certain stocks at all-time highs
I think that is when we hit
True expansion in this market where total crypto market cap total two and total three just start going up only man
And if you look at the chart
Up above Matt on the nest if you take a look at total three against Bitcoin
Once you start seeing that trend into you know more of a macro bull market and not just like a bit of chop
Think all that starts to happen once these two stocks hit all-time highs
And I think they're probably gonna hit all-time highs next quarter
And I'm comparing that to Nvidia because I think small caps right now are where large caps were around this time last year
Where they're just starting to rebound and then they're about a reach expansion over the summer time and last summer is when you saw Nvidia
Eclipse it's 2021 high and that's kind of like or I'm at
You know the altcoin market in general one of our guys and within the community Dorito
He posted a chart comparing total three right now, which is everything excluding BTC in East
And it's essentially right now where the equity markets were in October
So there's a lot of confluence for like broader risk to start going crazy
And I think there's probably only like, you know, I
Would say three to five months at best before
Everything escapes accumulation and we just go into rapid expansion
Yeah to follow on that point. I
Forget who we were talking to you. It might have been a week or two ago
Your your altcoins they have been in a bull market it has been quote-unquote altcoin season since late 2023
it's been an altcoin season for you know, the better part now of
Soon to be six months and you can see it in total three
Like you just said excluding Bitcoin excluding ETH it has been up only since call it October ish last year
Now I think the problem that some people
Made is, you know, quite frankly
Your your dino coin that maybe you were holding on to since
2019 or 2017 or who knows when
If it hasn't popped, it's probably dead
It's probably like that the market's telling you that it's just not interested in it. It's the new iota like you probably should let it go
Even though I don't even though I don't mess with altcoins
Anyone who looks at total three can see that this has been up only
For now not one but two quarters in a row
So it is quote-unquote all coin season already has been as for actual for stocks. Yeah, I'm feeling great. I
Bitcoin in the Bitcoin mining companies. It's what I
feel like I know best and
This week was officially a 10x a 10 bagger for my clean spark
When we first started by when we first started loading up and buying it in the FTX crash in the November 2020 low
so, I mean, however you get to a
10x a thousand percent, you know more power to you you do you but this was the way I
Chose to play it way back in the bottom of the bear and it feels it feels really good
Feels really good like these
these Bitcoin companies whether it was micro strategy or with some of the
These small cap or micro cap Bitcoin miners
They were all priced to go
insolvent they were all priced as if they were going to go bankrupt any month and
You really did you really did have to have the conviction like no, no, no
This is just this is just the same old bear market stuff. We see with Bitcoin every four years
this is probably just a retest of the previous low and
FTX and SPF aside this to shout pass and sure enough it did and
That's how we got those these
massive gains on the upside
So, you know, I'm still holding on to my clean spark. I'm definitely not letting it go until 2025 minimum
That's my decision though, you know that whether it's for tax reasons or I just don't like dipping out and dipping in and etc
But you know, everyone's got to have their own plan
But yeah, it feels really good. I do see
As far as other broader markets
I think we've had a hundred and fifty days straight on the S on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ without a single
little bit of a pullback so we're absolutely due for a little correction and you know, we're coming up on some of the
Slightly more bearish months, you know late spring and into the summer we we
Constantly see a summer low in broader markets
That's that's just normal as everyone decides, you know
I'm gonna lock ends or profits here and I want to go on vacation and not worry about
Options that might be expiring when I'm overseas on the beach. So
That that could happen. It could be a beautiful time to
Take a second or third look at your watch list something that maybe you haven't bought previously
But you would love to get an entry in on you might get it coming up here in the in the spring and summer. I'm certainly
Expecting those type of opportunities
So is now is not the time to FOMO into some massive green candle whether you're staring at clean spark up a thousand percent
Or or some, you know XYZ altcoin that has has just been
It's been up only and is bothering you
You know that everything corrects everything has a cool off
Matt man, great job on clean spark brother great job on that and
I'm assuming you're still the belief of the post having top, right?
I feel like the only thing that's different this time Matt and I've said this on my personal profile
The only thing that's really different this cycle is that BTC marked up to a new high
But when you factor in other things, right like a total three or exchange tokens
And them still not at all-time highs, you know, we still have a ways to go man
I think we're still do for like a 65% pump up till total three comes close to its all-time high from
2021 so there's a long ways to go
I just feel like the BT said the reason why you know, you you haven't really seen the
Euphoria that you saw last cycle and BTC broke 20k
It's simply because like this cycle has been a bit more muted
It's been sort of a muted bull run where it's like if you're not active on Twitter
If you're not active, you know on chain or whatever. It's sort of been a muted bull run where it's been blackrock
that's basically been giving us this liquidity and
Tether has been facilitating
Some liquidity on on other chains, right?
Tron and and Solana rights like the stablecoin inflows for Solana have just been
Astronomical man. So yeah, and you know what?
Like I'm sure that he's gonna have his day in the Sun as we get later into the
post having into the cycle, but I'm yeah, it's the new hot playground to create
Yz-alt coin or mean token because you know, we don't have to go all down the mint the myriad of reasons why but
Just real quick. It's cheaper. It's faster. It's easy
You do that and and people will people will come retail will come it's the same thesis for you know
If we rewind the clock a year ago when we were talking about
Coin basis probably undervalued Robin Hood is probably undervalued. Why because these are incredibly cheap easy
quick to install and easy to understand platforms to let
retail come in and participate and
They've done astronomically well, too
And and we'll continue to do so. I'm sure as we go later on
If you just stick to that kind of thesis
It's gonna steer you right no matter what sector you might be in
Yeah, as far as like the summer lull and all that stuff if you take a look at the last cycle we just chatted
Right through the having but I know the context is different, right?
We had kiwi and zerp and BTC was significantly lower from its all-time high
But the context is also the the it's also in that same 2020 which one
Yeah, 2020 like the context now, but we can also apply the same logic to you know, the 2016
The context of that was a lot of the money that was in the space rushed over to ethereum and ethereum pumped
From like 80 90 cents the 25 bucks and like seven eight months
Prior to the having and running up into the having and then he's had that major fud where it crashed out of five bucks
And now it's like all right. What's gonna happen with this having right now now that we're three and a half weeks out
50 50 right I think it depends on the context of where prices and how things are looking, you know
Probably the week of the having but I think a massive don't I think a massive dump is off the table
Luckily, fortunately, we already had a negative 17 percent
In the past week week and a half. That's great. That's good
You already wiped out a bunch of leverage you already took out the late degens and the margin traders and the and the john and come lately's
That's that's good before the having you don't want all of that leverage and margin and and
After the having that could just make the potential fall that much greater
So it's really nice that we already got a correction with 30 days out
So to me that's healthy it kind of I'm not saying
Oh, that means that the bottoms in and we can't fall back below 70 kick like none of none of that
You got to assume that the floor did get raised a bit
These these are these are clearly bulls
These are clearly buyers that don't have to go leverage long to get themselves an entry
Think it would have been pretty bad if we were at like 90k right now
Because the correction would absolutely happen after that in my opinion. That's why I'm sort of like
5050 on everything and if you take a look at late Feb until now
We've basically just been chopping and consolidating setting a new floor
For majors all around for the last like three weeks now, so I like this price action honestly ends
You know, you'll have your tickers that go crazy, right? Like I missed out on generational wealth once again
through some like random ticker on soul
It seems that every other day. There's something happening on Solana
We're like there's a meme coin launched and it goes to like half a bill and market cap
And there's like 50 million in liquidity and then it just does nothing it happened with slurf
And now it happened with this thing called new which is
You got it. You've got to tell yourself like all this is organized. You'd like Matt. Of course it is
no, of course it is this is the
These are the these are the orca teams these are the what do you call them the tiger teams, you know, it's it's
See, here's the thing the the 2014 and the 2015 DCA years and the 2016 stackers
Those people are your present-day whales
Those are your dog your dolphins and your whales that got a couple hundred Bitcoin or maybe maybe
Maybe close to even a thousand like that's that's what they grew to so
That's why quite frankly. We do see some interesting
repeated patterns because yes, yes black rock fidelity and all the spot Bitcoin ETFs have
You know grown to what 2% of the trading volume, but the other 98% of it is still Bitcoin
holders from previous cycles
It's all the same people only five and six and eight years older
They're all still they're all still here and they're all still doing the same tricks and moves
So I agree with you. It's um, it's not a conspiracy
Man, I'm gonna pass it on over now
To Safi and then yeah, we'll wrap up after that man Safi what's going on brother boys and girls today, man
Yeah, having a good time. I
Got I remember when I was on you. I remember when I was on your space like two weeks ago when we officially passed
70k that was quite a quite a thing to see it happened that like 3 a.m
Too it always happens when like weird times are asleep. Yeah, so funny, bro
No, I had to made a good call
You know the folks that were calling out like the base ecosystem
So that arrow that I bought like what is a week and a half it goes up like 120%
So that was a nice little buy
That was where I was like on coinbase just digging through every single coin and just buying one of everything
Because like in a bull market everything goes do you think do you think base is gonna have?
Their own token. Oh that's a question for Matt. I don't think I don't think base
It's just too much of a nuisance for coinbase to worry about all that shit like to create a token and whatnot
so I'm not sure that they'll have one but
It's just one of these centralized L2s again
I don't I'm not married to it in fact as I'm watching my arrow token go up
I'm debating when I'm gonna sell it like I'll probably get rid of it like a billion market cap or something
I think it's like 500 mil now or something in that neighborhood. I don't really care about it
It's just purely speculative nonsense like it. I'll just convert it to something more sane
And maybe it'll pump even higher than that who knows I have no idea
But the point is like some of those things are just narrative driven speculation, and that's fine. I admit it. It's just straight gambling
No, so that's that and then there's a whole bunch of other small sort of East base things that are out there
That I picked up. I don't want to go through them all but basically I think the
if you look at sort of last
Last season when Bitcoin first hit high and then it kind of did a little pullback
And then you know kind of broke high again you had a period of approximately four to five weeks
We're very similar in this situation. I think we see more highs with BTC. I don't think we're gonna have like I
Don't know I'm not expecting a cup and handle type appearance of this
Situation I think BTC it's just too obvious of a buy when it dips like when it dropped to 62k
I bought it in my ETF space and whatever and it's just too easy
Like so I think what it is is like dips now or just like gifts essentially
And I think we go more up than down now and that being the case like last season right like four or five six weeks
BTC hit high confirmed a break and then ET like aetherium did similar then everything just went moonshot
Like you guys mentioned I think some of the total three got scooped up by Solana this season
Which is fine. It's and it got scooped up by AI sort of narrative vaporware coins
Which are like so dramatically overvalued that these that the crash is gonna be fucking epic
We're talking about like 99% declines or this sir. This is gonna be awesome. This is crypto
It's all the paper where we
Man like jeez like the level of
Sort of like overvaluation on some of that stuff is epic and I but like I've made money on them
It's fine like whatever. But the point is like at some point when the musical chairs and that's gonna be a lot of fun
So I think like what I've been doing is I have actually been positioning more in the dino coin space
And the reason for that is I've already made a lot of money and other shit already
so like I don't need that risk anymore I can convert it to
something really simple like a
Like doge or a litecoin aetherium classic and the reason why is because like those and when you have total three start running further
And this the big run is usually after BTC high break confirmation and everything just goes bonkers
I expect that to be within a week or two
Because Google Trends is sort of suggesting that
The dinos represent sort of an easy maybe two three four five ten X even multiples
Once ETH breaks and everything sort of starts to fly and I've already and the downside risk is relatively low
Because they haven't run that much so you could look at it in that perspective that even if I don't get Giga gains
From that doesn't matter because I can get like
Relatively straightforward modest gains on on stuff that have already rotated out of and that's kind of the thesis there
So I think that no coins are good for certain people
They're good for what they are in terms of they've had long consolidation periods take even like when for example great hash rate
Like hasn't run at all, but what usually happens once
You're all coins around a certain level people that have made a bunch of money or like wait
Where can I eke out another 2x right because you can get like a 10x on something and then get a 2x on
Somewhere easy and you don't have to really risk very much and what they're gonna look at is stuff that hasn't run with
Relatively low downside like potential on the chart from where they are now and like
Ethereum classic like coin all these like things that you think will never run like I remember back last season
I was like who the fuck's gonna buy these things like I'm Bitcoin only and blah blah blah and it turns out they pump like crazy
Because people can eke out sort of easy multiples out of them. It's really that simple
So I sort of positioned everything early
and all of those things this time and then I also even positioned some in some of these like
Ethereum NFT things that nobody's paying attention to why because when they do pay attention to them
That's gonna be what everyone's ether rich
they got a bunch of money because they're ether and and now they're trying to look for beta somewhere and
It tends to cycle into these kind of like NFT things. So I just grabbed some of the like platform coins and shit like that
I'm not really playing with individual NFTs. But the point is like I have the patience
I don't mind waiting a year or whatever and
These things will have their moment and I'd rather have them when their market cap is really small
and nobody gives a shit about them and I can put very small amounts of money in and like 10x or 100x them as
You know my goal with those is not necessarily to put like my net worth in them or some bullshit
Like you just basically throw little amounts and you can get really high multiples
And then you can convert those over to something you like long-term
Whether you want to buy yourself some Bitcoin whether you want to buy yourself some whatever whatever your store of value stuff might be
You can always cycle out. So that's just my general strategy right now. It's not that fancy I would say
Safi what about in stocks man? What are you looking at brother? Are you uh,
Get back in man. Yeah stocks like I feel like I still have a little bit of my
And coin has always been like an alt disguise as a stock in my opinion. Yeah, I still I said that
Oh, I still have a chunk of my a little bit of coin left. I have a few things but I I've got some
Some my Bitcoin miners and what have you and I don't really have heavy amounts of any of them in my stock portfolio
But a little bit enough like they've had good gains. No problem there, but
Feel like right now like my attention is entirely on total three like this is where the easy this money will be
it's what I've waited for for several years for and
Like and Google Trends clearly suggests that the herd is coming. So to me
it's like that's where that is and then later when
When everything pumps to high heaven usual this takes about four or five months
It doesn't like it goes pretty quickly once things go viral
My thought is see how that goes clear out some of those and then I'll be looking into things like stocks again
If I sell a bunch of like overpriced alts, then I'll go wait
What what stocks could I find here?
And I think what I'll probably do is buy a bunch of dividend earning stocks that are undervalued
Like if I can find some if there any left actually by that point
But like most of the stock markets been steadily pumping. So all my stocks are going up
So I'm not too worried about those at all like
There's a few like you might find some good names like Apple for example
If they can if you get some fud there and you get some like declines because nobody thinks they're doing anything
You might be able to get into a better entry. So
I'll be looking at kind of anything that is
Kind of like deep pullbacks and stocks and stuff
But for the most part I'm not messing around stocks until I have like, you know, 10x most of my shit my altcoin space
So like I've been here since the bottom of the bear market
So I'm already up like, you know
500% plus on most of the items I've got
So like my my crypto investments far outpace anything about in the stock market last couple of years
You know by a country mile so that's pretty straightforward
and later like what I do is I'll just dump all that into like dividend earners and
Then I'll just let them sit there for God knows how long and then the next season
I'll just take a bunch of that dividend yield a lot of my dividend yields are sitting at like 10% yield now my portfolio
So I bought everything that was completely wrecked
So not only is the positions up but the yield is high so then I can basically gamble on
Shit coins for the remainder of my life with those
That's what I've always done is just take the dividends and then just gamble that every month on altcoins and then just make
Just free money off those yields. So I take those yields and 10x those and basically just keep piling them in
It's really been that simple. So doing that for 20 years. You can imagine if you do just fine
Like just keep just keep monkeying around with the high-risk stuff with all the dividend yields you make and you it's really really easy
You just have to like but that does take time. It takes a lot of effort over long periods of time patience and
It's like it's not the sexiest approach, but it works
Can see Tesla falling into the double digits over the summer and I would definitely be taking a look at
Long-term Tesla play if I agree
I agree like my my feeling is that I last time I bought test was like I think it's 106. I sold it at like 177 and
It's so overvalued right now
Like it needs to be under a hundred bucks and and if you've lived through like the previous Apple crash
Back when Steve Jobs died as an example
I cite that one frequently because Apple pees down back then was low as like 12 to 15 or some shit
like Tesla's way overvalued for what it is like and
Apple and its heyday had pees less than 15 forget about like
Forget about what Tesla is now. So it's very very overvalued my view
Not to say there's not great tech there. I think it's worth gambling on it at a much lower
Pea in my opinion like I yeah 80 80 to 100 bucks. I'm like gonna scale in big time there in my yeah
100% yeah me too. I think
And he could easily it could so easily do that if
You know, let's just say let's just say the economy stays strong. Let's just say that unemployment stays solid
in in US jobs and labor market
Holds in holds in well over the spring and summer you could make an easy argument that the Fed doesn't cut rates in June
Everyone still expects. Oh, this is gonna be the first of three or two or four rate cuts starting in June
Well, if the Fed decides, you know what? No, we're not gonna cut rates again in June
Tesla did double digits. I bet I really do think so. Mm-hmm. Yep. Yep. No, yeah, there's the there's the yeah
I've actually bought a bit of
Every out of manufacturer almost at the bottom of the market
So like my Toyota is doing really well and like I got like everything from Volkswagen to Porsche to I don't know what else
Like I just literally bought every car manufacturer on the planet with with like when they were bottomed out
With with the interest of like my point was to just get dividend yield there
And Tesla's one has been always priced more of a growth stock and in that one
Like said, I think it has some upside potential long-term as far as the tech is concerned
But yeah, it's like the valuation now is absurd in a sense that like there's just much better up
There's just better things out there you can get for the price currently
Like why would you go get something so richly overvalued when?
There's like so from stock perspective. It makes more sense to value invest when it goes to crypto
It's like complete absolute like total three DJ and like it's like so I go to far ends of the spectrum as far as
how I think about like risk so either I'm like really low risk and high yield or I am
Like very very high beta kind of like super high upside type shit over long periods of time
And I think either one is fun
so I think each thing satisfies a different urge in my mind like one is the urge to play and the other is to urge to
Save and and then of course like things like BTC and whatnot is more or less like long-term
You don't mess with your long-term bags there. You just add to them when you can and
Keep moving on and I think
Like as far as like the tech is concerned what I think is not vaporware, and I think probably is faded still by most
You know we've been you know banging the table about what chain links doing for the past six months
And nobody seems to care, but I believe in the next two months is when DTCC and or Swift are announcing their
Like big like crypto space projects
Swift is not going to be make you guys happy because it's like more of the CBDC stuff
DTCC is the back end for most of the stock market for the United States and
They're not going to use but let me let me hop in there. Yeah, they're not going to use chain link
They are they are that's exactly what they're using so you so they're going to use a free fork of chain link
That doesn't cost them anything
No, because no, but that it's not that straight
It's literally as simple as that like this is XRP all over again XRP try to tell you for years and years and years
Look banks are eventually going to use our technology
They're going to they're going to use this to settle up in real time
Quickest like like the old the old system it that's not exactly true
so the thing is the way the way that these things work so that the the the network effect of
Building a system that everyone's willing to use it it now that the negative would be yeah, they don't need a fake version
Yeah, but that's the point, but that's the point. They don't need everyone to use it
They only need the they only need the powers that be and the real stakeholders with money and tradify to use it
That's the mistake everyone makes they don't care if my house your house runs an XRP node or runs a chain link
No, they don't that doesn't care to them
Possible so far like what you're saying what you're saying is possible that somehow like someone just creates a fork and just takes
You know build something new and then everyone will end up jumping on that bandwagon instead that is a possibility
But what we know so far is that like most of the work between Swift and DTCC has been directly with chain link
XRP story is different. That's a token. That doesn't do anything
CCIP is a very different thing. It's a it's a network protocol and
what you need for a network protocol to work is everyone to use it and
Swift and DTCC have not made it clear that they want to be doing any of the actual programming work regarding any of this
So like there's been plenty of time over the last several years for like chain link style competitors to show up and create something different
That stuff is not as easy as it looks to build. It's that simple
And I think so if you go another year or two battle tested
With chain link at least so far and the announcements are coming out in about two months is my understanding a consensus
So there may be some new information there
But it's interesting stuff and neither nevertheless and none of them are gonna really say oh by the way
We're incorporating chain link and all this stuff is back end
Business stuff like there nobody gives a shit what protocol it's on right like the average user doesn't care banks
Don't care as long as it all connects one or other
They don't mind and they they can have their own blockchains. By the way, they don't have necessarily
You know they can do that also
But the point is you can with the interoperability protocol now you have a language that everything connect to each other
So there have been many instances of things like this. By the way, many companies have used things like I don't know
JavaScript or they've used like
TCP IP or they've used, you know HDMI there's many corporations that don't care about the interoperability protocol
They just want to make sure it's consistent
They don't necessarily want to make one of their own if they don't have to
Right, and that's kind of what's been the case in the history of the internet
So we'll see like but you're right
like it's not a completely unheard of thing that they could just make up a fork of something and
Everyone else starts to use it because they're the big player in the room the elephant in the room
But I don't think they want to they haven't made me they haven't demonstrated any evidence either by the conference is at Swift or at
DTCC that they want to completely build it on their own
So if they do it would be something totally unannounced for whatever reason and it's hard to hide this sort of thing by the way
Too like Swift is not a programming and coding organization. Neither is DTCC
So if they're hiring people separately to do this, it's probably hard to keep it a secret. Honestly
Because it's it requires a huge number of market participants to sort it out
So we'll see it like you said but but the really like that doesn't cost them anything by the way to use chain link
Understand that like the the it doesn't cost them anything extra in a sense that anyone else wouldn't pay
so the link token becomes kind of a
gas token in the middle of all of this
But it doesn't necessarily mean that link to the moon or something. It's really a function of like there's a whole lot of other
Protocols that are gonna make chain link money finally in this process
And that's the interesting part to watch for is do they actually generate revenue through this system or not?
You're right. Like hey, I can't tell the future who knows maybe someone maybe they do decide
There's some usefulness for chain link. I'm just gonna say that
We just heard this for years and years from the XRP
People yeah, they kept telling they kept telling you for years that look Swift's gonna get replaced
the US and the EU are gonna switch to Fed now and it's gonna run on XRP and
They in the US and you and they have been switching to Fed now and guess what it runs on a free
Blockchain called metal. It doesn't no one was gonna ever use some private
Cryptocurrency coin that makes it have a cost for banks to transact with each other
It was always always gonna just be a private blockchain. They can fork it from whichever one they want
there's you know, there's tens of thousands of them that that all have their little niche and it was not it was going to be free and
Interoperable between trad fly and no private individual was going to be able to like buy the token
Was always the case and I just like it just sounds so similar
What's different here is that like so every one of these organizations whether it's like arbitrary or optimism or whether it's like our key TF
that use like the Bitcoin proof of reserve system that got
Any of these systems what's special about chain link is it's not just price feeds anymore and it's not just interoperability
comprehensive smart contract network and it's not a blockchain remember that the link token or whatever is on Ethereum, but it's not a
It's a system of nodes that anyone can build. So for example, it's an open source deal
So we're like Swift can create their own nodal infrastructure with their own computers
That they don't have to pay anybody extra to run if they don't want it to be decentralized
So the this is basically just like free protocol for the perspective of implementation
So don't think it is like then have tokens for it or whatever. You don't well, but then but then that's the same
But then you you're left with the same problem. Then okay, no value accrues to any link token holder
That's that's so what's probably what's different here is so this is a layer zero system
So let's say for example Swift releases
You know into like crypto space so basically a CCIP native
USD basically just similar to how like, you know tether is on the theorem for example
When you release a canonical asset
You can actually play you can put a liquidity pool with any other token and what happens is to convert from anything to anything
You use link in between as the transaction fee for that
So it's not that Swift has to have linked tokens or even spend them to run this network
It's when you use your Swift issued money or your DCC issued stock or bond
You want to convert it to say for example Solana tokens or some shit. You'll be able to quickly do so in this system
Well number one you won't have to use a bunch of variety of wallets and you won't have to have the native tokens of
Your chains necessarily you can either use link or you can use the native
Taken of your chain basically any token becomes the gas token in between
So it's a really interesting user experience at the end of the day
Like this will be the easiest user experience you've ever seen in crypto like everything will be able to transfer to anything
So for example, a good example would be let's say block rock decides. Hey, we want to issue a
We are the issuer of a Bitcoin token and it's gonna be on a theorem
You're probably familiar with the wrapped Bitcoin, which is BTC on ETH and you know
Whoever runs it on a member's wormhole or whoever the fuck like releases that but the difference is is here you can release into defi
From ETF tokens, for example can be released straight to be usable. So instead of a wrapped
Bridge where the has bridge risks you now eliminate the bridge risks because now you have the CCIP network being the actual kind of like
Then anybody could issue their version of quote-unquote wrapped BTC
But in a CCIP format and it can be transferred to anywhere else that has CCIP incorporated
So for example, let's say it gets released on Solana first some company decides black rock decides whoever we're gonna release
Bitcoin into the CCIP ecosystem
every blockchain that incorporates CCIP can immediately get access that same token without and you can transfer from chain to chain to chain with no
Deciding how many wrapped bitcoins actually exist right now
Like if you create a wrapped Bitcoin and Ethereum and you create some other wrapped version of that on I don't know
Injective or somewhere on cosmos or something. For example, you can't then transfer that back to
Another chain which you can't daisy chain them if that makes sense. So this is a very very different system. It's like
It's a technological advancement. That's really quite substantial and the only competitors chain link has today are
Layer zero, which was a Binance Labs project, which is nowhere near the level of institutional interest
And then there's the pith network, which is purely like way more involved with like price speeds
Which chain link was known for back in 2020
But what they built now is a much more comprehensive world computing like system
So to speak to connect basically everything to everything including non crypto databases including things like Oracle or something like that
You can put in basically connect anything through CCIP
Issue an asset whether it's centralized or decentralized. It doesn't make any difference to them. You can connect anything
It's really pretty interesting and my point in saying all this is though of the dino coins
Like technologically speaking. I would say compared to almost everything
That's the one where if you're in it for the tech, that's probably the one you're in it for
Amongst a few of the others. Yeah, so that's the idea
Saffi you are like the number one person
Ted deep dive into like any thing man. The way you describe the link is like
Is like truly one of a kind you don't even think Sergei could even
Like explain like the way you do man, but listen, man
I think this is a good place to wrap up man, Sethi Matt
Mark everybody else who participated cool everyone who participated in the panel over the last two hours. Thank you all so much
Spaces record as always feel free to follow us guys. If this is your first time listening
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We look forward to having you on to the next time man. So Matt. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, man
Doc XBT as well. Everybody. Thank you all so much for the support and
We'll be back at the same time tomorrow as always and
Take care. May the candles be in your favor. Don't get liquidated guys and
Yeah, should see some constructive price action
Each day we get closer to the having man. So it's been quite some time
Matt we've been talking on these spaces for about two years now, man, that is
quite something it seems like only yesterday where like
FTX happened and all that stuff and
You know, I wonder what will be 18 months from now probably significantly higher and
It's gonna be quite a trip to see
speaking to people here on this panel that
Had recently just joined the market right like the 2024 2025 class
They're gonna be in for quite the treatment
Take care guys and have a good rest of your Wednesday and thank you so much for the support guys
We truly appreciate it. So on to the next one guys. Take care. Bye. Bye. God bless you all. Peace