Hey, what's going on brother? Am I coming in clearly? I'm outside
today so you know things should be relatively okay. It's not
raining. There's no fog or anything like that you sound
good. So far fingers crossed man. Alright perfect. Yeah. No
guests lined up man just gonna be the team so anyways man what's going on guys
welcome back welcome back hope everyone's doing all right apologies for
yesterday guys X was giving us some issues really seems just overall cuz I
know with Market Check yesterday the stream got cut down and you know
immediately for our next show with Market Talk we actually got bumped down
twice right and during that second attempt on our livestream half of the
audience wasn't able to hear me or Max one of us you know came in choppy the other
was radio silent so hopefully today goes just as planned right but either way hope
you guys are doing alright a lot of exciting things right if if some of you
guys heard me during yesterday spaces I was alluding to the fact that like alright
if we keep stabbing 39k then you know it should fall through immediately right
but you know that wasn't the case and here we are we propped up to about 42k
some of these altcoins with these newer names like your mantas and your alt
layers are you know catching somewhat of a bid now right and it seems that like
with these newer assets the market just wants to rotate out of these names
that have you know already caught somewhat of a substantial bid and they
want to go to towards these new markets that might have some greener pastures
right when we take a look at things like you know your T as or your says
right over the last couple of months they've been you know doing quite well
for themselves and I just think I just think now hear me out guys I'm gonna
keep it sesame Street simple as we say on these shows sometimes when JT is
on right I just think that anything that's really caught a parabolic trend
over the last quarter or two is probably gonna be tied up to the hip to what BTC
does and I just think that you know with this ETF announcement I think for the
next couple of months we're probably just going to ping-pong around in total
three right maybe we can have a slightly higher high by like 10-15% from
that high that we put in earlier this year on total three and ultimately I think
you know it's still gonna be the case where you want to survive until 2025 and
not blow up you know before the halving right and you know we had the equity
markets hitting all-time highs yesterday and you know today a bit choppy in the
equity equity land you guys know that I don't really trade equities I just
like to look at it here and there for some confluence but you know it just
really seems that we're now still in that environment that we were in in
September and October where you know now equities kind of chill out a little
bit right maybe grind a little lower where crypto just stays in a range and
we might see some names catch up right but either way I think going into
February we have the blast unlock right that should unlock some liquidity perhaps
we can take a stab higher at 48 49 K perhaps do a little double top deviation
above at 52 me personally I got into some newer positions like alt layer that
has to do with modularity and restaking and you know truth be told I'm just
grateful to be here with you guys talk markets this is uh oh yeah let me send
you co-host Tucker yeah I'm just grateful to be here with you guys to talk
markets talk narratives talk some shop some price action dubious speculation and
if any of you guys here in the audience can do us a favor go ahead and
like and retweet our spaces link we're gonna try to host these shows now at
430 just to give our discord afternoon calls some wiggle room as you guys know
we have two calls a day within our discord with the entire because Bitcoin
team and also our inner circle where essentially you can you know call it a
private Twitter space you can interact with us on a more personal level we give
a more in-depth analysis and all things like that and the current members for
the giga chat membership will have access to BB terminal once that goes
live sometime in q2 so stay tuned for that and don't forget to follow BB
terminal so as always guys this space is recorded man so I'm feeling pretty
optimistic man for the weekend I think you know I think all layers probably
gonna catch a lot of that attention that's just that's just my that's just
my gut feeling to be honest I think this thing is gonna be just like
Celestia and you know from a market cap standpoint you're talking about
something that's not even that's not even close to being you know a billion
dollars a circulating market cap or even half a billion at that point so while
everyone's chasing these high caps trying to catch you know eth beta that
already trades and the multiple billions I think there's just more
opportunity and some of these newer ecosystems and speaking of ecosystems
man we just came off of our afternoon discord chat we were talking about like
the Bitcoin alts and NFTs right known as ordinals and inscriptions right and we
were talking about puppets and max might actually get a puppet man and
that's gonna be pretty sick to see I honestly think man that like you know
next year a lot of us are gonna have a lot of fresh opportunities within the
Bitcoin ecosystem that's gonna be very reminiscent of the 2017 cycle where
you're gonna be able to get into an asset within the BTC DeFi space that
might come out at like you know 50 mil FDV with a 20 mil market cap
circulating supply compared to what we have now which is usually 300 300 mil to
half a bill in SERC and the FDV is like you know two to three bill right and
doesn't really give that much opportunity to some newer market
participants so I think there's alpha right now in the BTC ordinal space I just
think that for now it's so early that most of the opportunities are coming from
KOL circles and for those of you that don't know what a KOL circle is it's
basically like a group of what you would call influencers and they just
like funnel some pool money to create some project like I'm sure you guys have
heard about the news with SAVM and the influencer cabal that was involved with
that but eventually I think in 2025 probably sometime in q4 once BTC breaks
all-time high I think I think the ordinals is gonna be absolutely massive
and it really would not shock me right just because the the Bitcoin OGs are so
rich it wouldn't shock me that some of these guys take the ordinal ecosystem to
like half a bill no a half a trillion I'm sorry half a trillion in market cap
and I think that was I think that was the the market cap peak in like mid q4
once Bitcoin crossed 10k in 2017 so I think I think that's a reasonable
amount right like the market cap that the 2017 cycle was before we had that
giant blow off top the 20k and all that sort of stuff so anyways man Matt I'll
bring you up brother I'll send you an invite to speak and us Norlax I'll send
you an invite to speak if you want to talk as well anybody here really man if
you want to come up to speak feel free to join us man I'd love to talk some
shop with you guys especially after yesterday man it was it was quite a bummer
it was quite a bummer I was just left like damn man I had so much to say
right but either way man Matt I'll go ahead and bring you on up so you know
those are my initial thoughts man I think equities probably chop here for a
while or probably you know we'll see SPX go to 5200 range chop a little bit
while crypto catches up and we've seen these we've seen these movements before
right where equities rally and then cryptos bleeding down it's like oh is
this time different what's going on it's like hold on guys what are we even
talking about here right like big country tuck says what are we even talking
about here right and you know usually the balance corrects itself and you know
I do think there's a pretty good chance right you've got the Jupiter airdrop
incoming you've got the blast unlock coming and I think at the very at the
very least we could expect the mid 40s to be retested and some of these newer
names to just go absolutely ballistic just because so much money has been
created over the last couple of quarters and on top of that guys USDC
inflow over the last 12 months is now positive right and I think you to date
they've printed over a billion and of course there's tether as well and yeah
just a lot of positive tailwinds man and I just think you know biggest thing man
as I've been shouting about here on these shows and on my personal profile
patience patience patience patience is key and yeah don't let the market sigh
off you and chop up your net worth man and you know I've still got about like
20% of my net worth in stables and I'm gonna try my best to just be patient
now with these newer launches you know I'm not sure when dimension releases but
you know I thought it was gonna be released in mid January but it seems
now we're gonna have to wait until like I don't probably mid-February late
February but who knows man who knows but let's go ahead and get some thoughts
from our speakers I know max probably only has like 10 minutes 15 minutes left
I know on Fridays he usually wraps the date early man so max what's going on
man and how does it feel to be a future Bitcoin puppet owner brother hopefully
my hopefully my sound quality is good right I'm outside it's fresh it's sunny
no crazy cars passing by so should be good man yeah man I'm just I'm just
laughing at a tweet that I just saw I'm sorry I I'm gonna send it to you guys
right now you I'm not gonna put it up here but probably one of the more funny
tweets I've ever seen I know Tucker's Tucker specifically is going to
appreciate some out-of-control behavior that I've just witnessed all-time highs
imminent man after a tweet like that yeah oh wow yeah hey hey guys hey guys
happy to be here correct I I usually try to get out of my office a little bit
early on Friday you know I I wake up I spend like an hour with my son and my
wife and then I go to work all day and I love when I can get home and you know
at least have like two three hours with them together because you know my
kiddies seven months old so he goes to bed at like 7 p.m. so if I can get home
you know around like 4 4 30 my time right now it's for that's pretty solid
so anyways I do take off I like to hang out here as long as I possibly can but
my days start early you know I leave before seven and I get home usually
around five ish so we'll talk for a little bit but yeah I mean you got you
got Tucker and Matt and wabi up here some absolute killers man so you will be
in good hands but yeah I mean I appreciate everything wabi said and for
the most part I agree I'm actually gonna put a tweet of mine up in the
nest I've been tinkering around with you know the the question where are we
potentially in this cycle and I'd like to just take everybody on a little journey
I know maybe some of you are just listening with with headphones but if you
can I'd love of you know and I'll try to be as descriptive as I possibly can but
if you want the visual the chart is up in the nest I think it would be helpful
for a lot of people but I think there's a pretty decent chance that this
is where we could be at right now and I'm more focused on the timing of
everything you know not not exacts you know not specifics a lot of people I
think they they miss categorize or you know sort of miss I don't know miss
allocate fractals and just because it kind of looks the same as a previous
sell-off or a pump but I think the timing of you know these these
parabolas and these these bear markets and Bitcoin is actually some of them
were hidden alpha if you can decipher some of the nuances and I think this
is actually one of my favorite charts that I've worked on and I've got all of
the Bitcoin halvings marked out the one in 2016 the one in 2020 the one in
2024 and I've broken the chart up into a few bits and pieces that I'm going to
explain set the stage a little bit and then I'm going to get into what I
think happens okay so there's a pretty clear and recognizable like bull market
range low and I've marked I've marked out the bull market sort of like the
bull market range with a green square so you can see the blow off top of every
cycle has a green square okay and then underneath that I've got a horizontal
line drawn that's our bull market range low and then below that I've got three
red boxes from each bear market and they're all 518 days long we're gonna
call that the despair zone okay when Bitcoin I mean you could argue that
Bitcoin every single every single cycle enters a bear market as soon as it
puts in the global top but I would argue that the real bear market begins
when you when you lose that bull market range low okay so last cycle it was like
28 K 30 K just for reference but that is on the chart if you want to take a look
at it but the pattern I've noticed is that once we lose that bull market range
low we spend 518 days of you know garbage price action and what was
different about the the 2019 one is that we actually exited that despair
zone and then re-entered it but what I mean by the 518 days we could just
say 500 days just to keep it simple is that Bitcoin will spend 500 days or 518
days doing garbage price action and it's 518 days before it leaves that
despair zone and we'll never look back okay so you can see that in the 2019
dip we actually did look back and it was you know Covid was the catalyst but
we did in fact look back you know we dipped back into it and then 518 days
which is the exact same amount of time as the 2015 despair phase it was 518 days
before we left came back for one more tap and then never looked back in the
despair zone the bull market range low has effectively been officially reclaimed
or conquered after 518 days so where are we at potentially right now what I did
just to fractal it out to give an additional visual I fractal both the
2016 through 2017 cycle after we left the bear market despair zone and I also
fractal you know right after we left the despair zone in 2020 right before the
Bitcoin halving and where it looks like we're at right now is actually closely
following what happened right before the third Bitcoin halving and we're tracking
that one closer but funny enough if you follow both fractals counting from
when we officially left and never looked back of our 518 day you know
deep-value despair zone Bitcoin should essentially pump to 55k if these
fractals are valid and again they never work out perfectly take them for what
they are but if we were to follow the previous two cycles perfectly you know
again both of these happened before before the Bitcoin halving Bitcoin will
pump to 55k slowly bleeding correct probably back down to upper 40s maybe
mid 40s and then after the Bitcoin halving slowly curl and then it's a
moonshot okay so I'm very fascinated with the timing of all this and how it
lines up with the halving but where I do think wabi is probably correct is that
this time likely is not that different okay we'll probably peak some time next
year but I also think it's important to note that it's certainly possible if
not in my opinion likely that Bitcoin actually makes a new all-time high this
year the timing of that is up for debate you know is this is this cycle
playing out faster than the previous cycles I don't know you know if so then
maybe we even have an all-time high as early as the halving itself maybe even
before but if I was a betting man and I am a betting man I think it's a scenario
you have to entertain is that we do make an all-time high before the halving
but it's probably less likely than after okay but I don't think it's off the
table completely I really don't Bitcoin can squeeze and it can squeeze
hard and fast I mean we saw just that with with the NASDAQ I mean if you go and
you look at the NASDAQ when it had that drop in September and October we rallied
to you know an all-time high in a quarter you know it took it took three
months for for the NASDAQ to hit an all-time high I actually think I have a
fractal for that as well hang on let me put that in the nest hang on hang on
hang on bear with me yeah right here guys so here check check the nest right
now this is what I'm talking about this is actually SPX the NASDAQ one looks a
little bit better but I haven't tweeted it out yet we were talking about it on
our YouTube show earlier today but this idea that Bitcoin can't correct here
and immediately slingshot up to 55 or 60k because it's quote-unquote too quick
or we need more time yeah I mean you know logically that makes sense but
also we just saw precisely the opposite of that with you know the NASDAQ
and the S&P 500 I mean these aren't shit coins we're talking about this is where
you know trillions of dollars of liquidity is stored collectively and they
basically be recovered off of you know a pretty prominent low so it is Bitcoin it
is crypto crazy things can happen and we can squeeze but I just I'm kind of
leaning towards the camp of maybe the lows here locally get pressured again
possibly but I think there's a probably 80 to 90 percent chance that the low is
in right here and it was set like 22 percent off of the high of like 49k so I
think that I'm leaning towards the low being in I'm open to it being swept or
pressured again but I don't think you're gonna get your premier entry of you
know a retest of 30k 31 32 I don't think that's gonna happen I I'm not
planning for it you know I've got I've got a little bit I'm probably 90%
deployed right now yeah about 90% deployed 10% stabled up just in case but
I'm I'm fully expecting like if you if you go up into the nest the not the
first chart that I just posted but the the one of like the the despair zone the
518 days I'm playing this like we're in inning two or three of a bull market
that will potentially top sometime this year but more likely than not top
out sometime in 2025 so I'll leave it at that but yeah I'll stick around for a bit
thrilled to be here and yeah let's let's rock and roll baby max let me ask you a
question man what concerning these alts man why do you think so many people are
so eager to to really just go crazy into these newer tickers instead of
bidding something I don't know maybe like a chain link right let's talk some
Colts right you've got the Cardano community you've got the Doge
community you've got the link Marines right through these crazy Colts and
they're like oh just you wait man just you wait this thing is gonna you know
flip Ethan's you know the market just keeps on showing that the new tickers is
gonna be where it's at and really the difference that I'm seeing this cycle
compared to last cycle is that you know the alpha into these new tickers is a
lot quicker just because the amount of information has just spread more
rapidly right I know this one ticker that some of our discord members got
into I did not full transparency here with on doe some of our guys just ate
it on site and now you know that things up like well over 100% whether as
before you know it would take usually a couple of weeks for that to be priced in
man what number so why do you think that is and also like do you think
that's gonna continue and perhaps you know some of these alts we're starting
to see some of these alts that will likely not make an all-time highman yeah
it's a good question and I mean the proof is in the pudding right if you've
been playing new charts all year you've been outperforming and that's typically
how these things go but you have to be very skilled at that that art like you
are wabi because there's a lot of new tickers that launch that I mean they
literally just don't do anything or they rug or you know people get
misled because there's kind of KOLs that are I don't know scummy so if you know
what you're doing 100% I mean always playing a new chart will offer you the
highest RR but you know actually one thing I would I would say well let me
touch on this first so playing new charts is always going to outperform you
know things like Tia pulled a 10x from its you know it's listing price it
opened at like two bucks it topped out just above 20 recently I don't think
that a lot of these names are done at all and and I don't think that you named
link I don't think that link will be a bad performer if we get a new you know
Bitcoin parabola here to an all-time high but I also think at the same time
you know a lot of people would feel more confident throwing a hundred K at
link than they would a hundred K at a fresh chart beef just because they
understand that you know the the probability that link rugs is like
effectively zero where some of these new projects you just never know you know
what I mean so there's there's multiple ways to play it you could throw in just
using a hundred K again because it's an easy number to use you could throw 10 K
at a fresh chart or a hundred K at a chart that's been around one cycle and
more or less get the same returns you know so it's just there's a lot of ways
to skin the cat you can figure out what works for you I try to do some sort of
hybrid because I don't really trust myself to pick out some of these new
projects I'm more focused on like the higher time frame cycles and trying to
time them out that way but yeah I mean you know wabi and I'll actually say this
to you like you're really really good at playing fresh charts you know which
ones are solid projects which which ones aren't you do your research you
understand that game really well I don't but I also think where you get
into trouble is you hit a 10x on Tia from $2 to $20 and the thing's
probably still gonna run to 80 so for you it feels like you're late but you're
actually in reality really early and it's something that Tommy always messes
up is that Tommy gets into meme coins way too early so Tommy will get into some
meme coin at like and it's Snorlax here in the audience Tommy will get
into Pepe at a 200k market cap hit a 5x on it sell it at a million market cap
and then it goes to a billion you know what I mean so there is there is a
thing where you have to kind of recognize with how ingrained we all are in
the culture and the communities here blasting through the treacherous bear
markets if you're still here you have an edge you know and people that you
associate with if you're social here on Twitter you guys have an edge you know
you're not like the normie crowd that hops on Robin Hood when Bitcoin makes an
all-time high and starts buying okay it's different so you have to recognize
actually how ingrained in the weeds you truly are and that even though it
feels like maybe you're late you might in reality not be that late you know you
might not be like I look at say right now wabi probably thinks that say you know
he's a little bit late to say or the meat of the move is over say is that a
1.6 billion market cap right now say he's probably gonna top out at like a
hundred billion market cap like Solana did last cycle it could easily still
from here pull like a 60x okay so it's like are you late to it well
somebody else bought it much cheaper but you're probably not late if say goes to
a hundred billion market cap I will be almost a billionaire so I really hope
you're right man I really do tiger plays with Zuzi size brother yeah we're
in different categories unfortunately but yeah I mean I think it's promising
right I don't I mean I don't know exactly where we'll go but you have to
you have to look at last cycle and just say all right where no pun intended you
have to say all right where was sort of that theoretical you know where was that
ceiling that a lot of top tier blue chip all projects struggled to break
through last cycle and it was around that 80 to 100 billion market cap you
saw a lot of projects like Ada obviously sold BNB kind of all just to name a
few kind of hovering around 80 to 100 billion and I think a lot of these
fresh charts will probably do the same and then you'll have the blue chips
of last cycle like soul and BNB probably go to like 300 or 400 billion you know
and then they break through that theoretical ceiling you know and and we
just continue on you know so you just move the goal post a bit so yeah I mean
dude I hope you end up being a billionaire but I won't be you know I'll
now all I'm thinking about is what you said man only thinking about saying 100
billion we got a manifest we got a manifest hey wait I know you did you
change your profile picture you you've been up here yeah okay that's cool I
like the tiger yeah yes I think I think the alpha that we can use with some
your names and narratives is just looking at where Eve topped out in 2017
I'm sorry January 2018 and reason why I'm saying that is because during that
cycle right the 2015 to early 2018 cycle there were no such thing as smart
contracts and Eve at the time peaked out at about 1400 right so I think the
ETH market cap at 1400 correct me if I'm wrong here max but I'm pretty sure
it's at least like a quarter of a trillion right so if we use something
like you say what the ETH market cap is yeah yeah right now or you say at 14 to
fifteen hundred dollars per each like what would the market cap be at and I
think it's like a quarter trill right just yeah it's probably somewhere around
there are you talking about what like last cycle what was the 2017 the 2017
cycle it's January 2018 when each peak yeah it was it was a less than that dude
I think it was like 120 130 bill okay okay so I think if we just use that as
the standard rate with this new quote-unquote paradigm of I know these
buzz terms get like so overused now you know modularity and parallel EVM but I
think that's the benchmark right so I think when you see like
Celestia and say at you know approaching a hundred bill right in market cap and I
think that's very possible because you know I do think that this is a cycle
where we were where the crypto market cap tests the dot-com peak which is it
about 10 trill give or take I think I think it's actually more like 11 or 12
trill but I think with crypto just being so fast in front running you know
the alpha I think you know perhaps just under 10 trills probably gonna be the
peak late 2025 and I know that's only a 3x but like a 3x right from you know
3 trillion dollars in change to just under 10 trillion is actually a more
aggressive move than something going from a hundred bill to 1 trillion right
just because the exuberance of money right and the people that are gonna be
bidding up the high caps right and I think retail for the most part is
probably just gonna be on these newer l1s and it's probably gonna be the
institutions that are gonna be bidding up things like Solana and all that stuff
one soul trades at an all-time high to be quite frank but yeah I'll pass it on
over to tiger man cuz I know we're talking about narratives and all that
stuff but max before before you go man I know you know you were talking about
how Twitter gives an edge I'm sorry ax how this platform gives somewhat of an
edge because you know we're involved in all these communities and all that stuff
so I want to ask you man like how how beneficial do you see it to participate
in this asset class to be surrounded with a community of people that live and
breathe this market versus someone that's just trying to you know do this
market on their own what are some of the benefits that you see in some of you
know the hidden outlet you can discover whenever you do have such an active
community around you first of all you sound like you're in GTA right now man
with all the sirens behind you but yeah it's it's it's not just important I
think it's I mean it's non-negotiable I mean you there's very few people that I
know that can confidently and successfully navigate the intricacies of
you know a crypto cycle without resources the market's simply just too
big there's too many things to watch I tried to do it last cycle and I would
say actually given how inexperienced I was in 2019 when I really started to
focus on it and learn I'm actually impressed that I escaped with the amount
of money that I did but yes it's I mean it's not negotiable there's simply too
much stuff to watch the information flow is the real value I mean your your
network and how information travels and how quick it can reach you is
ultimately how much success you're going to have in these markets so I mean I've
when I've basically constructed our team and building because Bitcoin my
objective was to you know look at myself identify weaknesses and find people that
are really awesome at things that I don't consider myself to be very good at
and I think that we really have a dream team right which is why people tune in
and listen to these because they hear from guys like me who can't trade alt
coins for shit I mean I can trade them but I can't like spec new alt coins for
but they can come to me to you know talk about like cycle theory and higher
timeframe levels and that's also important right to figure out where you
potentially are in the bigger picture you know and then they come and listen to
you wabi and you're one of the best that I've ever seen at spec'ing new
projects so it's just it's you need to surround yourself with people actually
not like yourself you know fine guys you know follow guys that are as
different from you as possible even if you're like what the hell are you
posting about I don't even your tweeting is annoying it's static it's it's not of
interest to me follow guys like that I'm telling you because there is I mean you
you might not even know about certain tickers or pieces of information or
news and you have to follow some of these guys and yeah I mean the
importance of finding your community early on it's pertinent man it's it's
it's non-negotiable so yeah I'm thankful for my team because I can lean
on you guys I mean I was talking with with Tommy Tucker today after market
check and we were we were trying to peer pressure Snorlax into buying a compi
panda which by the way I'm super bullish on like like insanely bullish on it
unbelievable but anyways very very bullish on that project we were like
Tommy you got to get in man buy a panda buy a panda I mean we were being
obnoxious right we were having good fun with it but he was like I don't know
man you know like I'm just kind of just looking into him now he might buy one but
I said Tommy the only question you have to ask yourself right now is do you feel
as though you can trust your teammates who have looked into it and he goes
that's a good point that's a good point and then he bought a hundred pandas no
I'm just kidding he didn't buy any pandas yet but seriously like there's a
lot of I mean our team right if any guy on my team here because Bitcoin
said alright Max don't do any research here's the contract put $10,000 into this
I'm very confident in this I've spent a lot of time looking at it I would do it
you know and that's the truth and that's the truth but it's taking time to get
there you know it's taking a lot of time to build that trust but I have it
the importance of camaraderie and I'll tell you what man you know you know with
this cycle right some of us are bullish on more than just one thesis right like
I'm bullish on modularity gaming and restaking and I remember I remember
once here and say we're rage-pumping Tucker's like man you gotta check out
restake finance you know it's part of the the eigenlayer ecosystem and I 100%
faded him and that taught me a lesson that taught me a massive lesson right who
could have foreseen and I think you know having a team to kind of you know throw
it out there like hey don't forget about this narrative don't forget about the
other part of your thesis right I think paying attention very closely to your
inner circle so you don't miss out on the bigger picture counts and I've and
I've learned that lesson right not everyone's perfect and yeah just that
just goes to show that like you can be bullish in a bull market but you know
within a bull market there are these rotations throughout that you know will
sometimes have your bags underperforming against something that you were already
bullish on so don't fade Tucker man Tucker's been killing it too with with
restaking a few other names as well so I know he can't talk right now so we'll
get on over to Matt and then tiger and yeah we'll let some of you guys in the
community if you guys want to speak up feel free to hit that request button
we're just doing our weekly wrap-up nothing too serious so yeah feel free
to hit that request button and as always guys you want to get in touch
with myself max Tucker anybody else apart of because Bitcoin team our
community links are in our bio and yeah we look forward to seeing you guys there
we're approaching 200 discord members if I'm correct right max close to 200 yeah
yeah we're getting up there yeah we're dropping BB terminal soon to not to make
it a whole discord shill but check that out as well it's gonna be pretty cool
dropping right around the halving Matt we'll pass it on over to you brother
what's going on man how are you feeling today man hey well I'll be hey
max hey everyone um yeah to follow along with with max's point this was a
brutal long bear market but if you took advantage and doubled down and taught
yourself something learned something new or doubled down on whatever expertise
or niche you already had like you're you're probably already benefiting from it
so I know you like to surface new projects or new coins wabi max absolutely
has his unique talents and skills too and this past fair market I decided you
know what I'm really interested in these Bitcoin miners and Bitcoin companies I'm
gonna take every single one of these damn public companies and rank them and I
because there's gonna be there's gonna be so much opportunity in riding the
winners and buying puts and shorting the losers and I mean you guys you guys know
I have been a broken record for the past year and a half that clean spark is
the winner and not to put anyone's bags but popular names like Hut 8 are are a
loser are below average and you need to stay away and I'm just pulling up the
chart right here right now year-over-year clean spark is the number one
minor out of over two dozen public miners of plus 181 percent year-over-year that's
more than riot that's more than Mara that's more than a bunch of other names
bit farms and poor Hut year-over-year Hut 8 is negative ten percent so I mean
if you dropped a bag on Hut 8 last winter when we were barely out of the
FTX FPS FBI SPF capitulation if you dropped a bag on Hut you're underwater
somehow year-over-year and anyway so like it my only point is whatever your niche
is you know what skills you have you know what what interests you you know
what you have time for that maybe other people overlook or dismiss but you see
value like that double down on it I mean if you can make money off of it
and no one else is doing it that makes you invaluable yeah wise words to be said
man yeah with you know as far as like you know with the BTC ecosystem and I
remember when I had you on the show in mid December or early yeah mid December
of 2022 or early January of 2023 and I was asking you about like you know the
prospect of Bitcoin having its own ecosystem right with ordinals and all
that stuff man and look at where we are now man yeah yeah and what it and
remember what I said like you know what that's more of your skill set than mine
but I know that if I surface the best Bitcoin miners like they're gonna profit
off of it regardless I don't have to I don't have to you know always be in the
hottest project or have my bag of ordinals or rare sats or whatever if
people are if people are actually interested in this Bitcoin miners
will print money off of it and I'll still get the reward so and what are
your thoughts on the equity market going into going to February yeah this
was so I think we last talked two weeks ago or a week ago and I was
saying forget this GBTC temporary dump this reminds me so much of almost a year
ago when we were looking at Silvergate in and signature banks dump it's a
temporary blip in bearish in the short term but it has nothing to do with the
medium or long term especially when you look at labor market looks solid
inflation is keeps cooling off every single one of your big tech companies
companies and blue chip companies they've all put in 52 week highs or new
all-time highs Warren Buffett's Berkshire it just put in a new 52 week
and all-time all-time high his Berkshire companies outperform in the S&P
or 100 everywhere you look equities are printing it's up only so what does
that mean that means that inevitably asset managers and family offices and
people with cash are gonna go farther out on the risk curve and that includes
Bitcoin Bitcoin is gonna bid as soon as they like okay I can't I'm not
interested in a 5% maybe move on Apple I think I'll you know look elsewhere
that's that's that's going on as we speak and they see that Bitcoin had a
negative 15% negative 20% cool off after that ETF news absolutely here this
looks like a good spot it's just human nature it's just smart and so you know a
week ago when everyone was telling you here we go 30k 25k capo was right it was
idiotic I was like I'm bidding I'm buying I'm buying more Cleansburg I'm
buying a little more riot and I bought 39 39 6 39 5 somewhere around there for
Bitcoin like yeah I have it I've literally not bought since last summer
fall way back at 25k but this is the point like this is why you stay patient
this is why you don't just panic and sell or bear your head in the sand because
these opportunities come up once a year you can set your watch to it with Bitcoin
once a year there's always some excellent buying opportunity and
everyone will call you an idiot for doing so yeah I remember that dump dude
and then for the next few weeks people are like being so mean to each other man
so in short but in the short term earnings close in about I mean not not all
earnings but let's just say the companies we care about you know your
Microsoft your Apple your Google your Amazon etc they're all reporting within the
next six seven days Tesla already reported but Tesla they're their own
little thing the real the real blue chips meta tube they're all reporting
within the next week so far as if you have 500 on the whole looks good and if
these companies meet or beat well then you then the bears have run out of
excuses for another two three months so I'm you know I can't predict the
future but the labor market looks good inflation is cooling the rest of these
companies seem to be making money if you get your biggest blue chips and your
biggest tech companies to also confirm that they they knocked it out of the
park like then once again like you need to be in this Matt and we also had a
pretty solid GDP report earlier this week I think we beat expectations by a
by like a percent it was ridiculous yeah yeah that's that's crazy that is
honestly insane man but I just think 2022 was just sort of a crazy anomaly
and I wanted to ask you before I pass it on over to tiger the last time that we
saw a stock like Tesla which in my opinion is basically gonna be a bag
holders dream against newer assets for the foreseeable future right I think last
time we saw Tesla bleed this much right back-to-back days was in early January
of 2023 in late December of 2022 and I was like but what's going on with Tesla
this thing has a nine handle right it went below 100 bucks what's what's
going on right and that ended up being the bottom and then tech basically went
on a face ripper for the first half of 2023 on the AI narrative so and I know
Elon has this whole thing with with Tesla trying to merge with some AI stuff
you know though all the buzzwords right for the AI Super Bowl a super bubble of
this decade right cuz look I think once AI starts rolling the markets not
gonna know how to price side it and things are gonna go a lot higher than
people even think right cuz we are moving into an automated into an
automated future right where I think that it's gonna come to a point right we're
like you know even you know ordering an uber eats right it's gonna take like two
clicks right or even one click instead of multiple right just everything just
automated right so what I want to ask you more bluntly is you know do you
think this marks the bottom for Tesla and do you think no oh yeah my personal
opinion I think you need to be cautious that Tesla doesn't have a double bottom
so the you're right 2023 December January I think oh excuse me it was a
January 2023 Tesla bottom debt let's just call it $100 a share right now
Tesla sure looks like it might retest that and I mean I mean that's it's
totally possible they've they've now missed not one but two earnings in a
row they keep telling you that like oh I'm you know I'm sorry but those cyber
chucks that everyone got hyped for they're gonna be a lost leader for a
while and we're not even at full production of them like you know and I'm
I'm I'm excited for the future of AI too but their AI products are not for sale
or if they or their self-driving service no one's buying it the big difference
between Tesla and Nvidia is the world cannot get enough of Nvidia's chips and
then videos GPUs and their AI products they're buying it and they're buying them
twice and they're trying to get as much as they can get and they're buying future
they're buying rights for future orders when they come out that no one's doing
that with Tesla at least not right now so they're they're complete two
completely different animals you can be a bull on AI and be long in video and
bearish Tesla right here right now so I mean yeah you could totally play
the balance at $100 a share and and probably make some money on Tesla but
right here you're in no man's land this this is a broken chart I don't know if
you're looking at it on your screen but that massive gap down yeah it looks it
looks like a bear market like it still looks like a bear market where there is
some of the other assets you know the bag seven have just been tearing and
tearing so yeah I mean it's a it's a 50 PE with two missed earnings like boy it
could that could easily be you know even if you're dying to own Tesla you
might easily be able to get it in a PE in the 20s you might yeah so you know
what's the rush yeah as left curve is as this may seem perhaps we'll see we'll
see a higher high on Tesla you know with with more dubious speculation in the
crypto space with the right my my Tesla's buys were like what is it 106
and I sold it about 177 that was my last front my next time to buy Tesla's
gonna be like at you know if it's closer to 60 bucks I'll buy it not only is
that a rec chart it's P to E ratios obnoxious for what they actually do right
now and the reality is like we have you know the high interest rate environment
stuff is gonna like be negative for yeah that's it that is it right there you're
absolutely right like if if if you take one thing away from this Tesla probably
doesn't bounce until they truly start cutting interest rates because these
these are expensive car loans you know yeah and like for the tech people that
don't think this that type of thing can happen like go back and look at an Apple
chart and I always remind everybody like you're like hot early on in iPhones
like when we were actually you know making a lot of progress and you know
right around where Steve job dies and whatever like you know P to E ratios for
Apple were as low as 12 we're talking about Apple here and they're at 30 or
something now so to think that Tesla can't get absolutely dive-bombed into
oblivion and a lot of people are gonna lose a lot of money on it like or at
least like on paper there's a very high probability of that it's just doesn't
look attractive at all at this price you could have bought Apple at 19 PE
less than a year and a half ago so you know that's one of the gold standard
blue chips so exactly don't tell me that Tesla can't get down to the
20s of PE on the other hand I did sell all my AMD I'm like like talk about
frothy Jesus like they're not selling that much shit and the P to E is like in
the thousands somewhere so it's like I made my gains on it I'm out like you
know wait till the bubble you know hype goes down and then you can always find
it cheaper I'm sure yeah make sense of me you know I think you're I think you
guys are missing the bigger picture with Tesla I've been a bull on Tesla in the
past I'm not one right now cuz why are you there why well why did it go from 100
to 280 there's one main reason okay and that was dojo okay and what did Elon
say on the call he said temper your expectations on dojo which was the
whole AI narrative for Tesla okay so you have a dojo that's no longer really a
thing that's gonna happen in your future if at all and to they literally said
there's no growth this year okay so if you're an institution okay and you have
monthly quarterly yearly performance benchmarks you have to meet against the
index and there's no stories here why not wait for 150 180 60 why not why not
yeah I'm not saying Tesla's not a bad company so by the way Stephanie I agree
on the AMD cell I actually saw all that recently too I did start selling my
video but I'm an Nvidia maxi if anyone knows me well you talk about the Atari
Tiger talk about Tesla's margin to their margin of profit yeah so totally
different you're like the margins are getting absolutely shit tanned and like
the reason why they had bigger or wider margins than any other automaker any other
EV during the pandemic was because one they were a first mover advantage so
they had this pricing power component to them that they no longer really have so
they're they have there's more competition in the space now so they
have to cut price in order to you know keep up with the competition they're
trying to offset that with lower cost per unit but it's not really offsetting
it as much as it needs to and the volume is not enough for the growth to
keep up and they just told you that there's gonna be basically no growth
this year and they're probably gonna have to cut prices again so I mean you can
see auto margins for them like 12 to 15 percent it can really get ugly I
think I mean also on the luxury side tiger I don't know if you guys noticed
this but like I own some stock in Porsche Volkswagen too so like you know
full disclosure but the the they just announced sort of their new Macan EV
which looks pretty sharp and it's running about 80 grand starter price and
the diff the big shift on that it's got the 400 volt or 800 volt charging
stuff going on so you're charging time drops to like 20 minutes or what have you
so there's a lot of competition coming so and then oh by the way it was like 400
plus mile range something like that so they're definitely making progress I also
think just like Elon has too much on his plate like I think that just from the
investor community it's like where is your head at you know like you got
Twitter you got space data Tesla you know so much going on and it's like
he's not like old old but he's not like 30 years old you know like he things like
150 he has that he has to pay to keep X's X Twitter his lights on too because X
Twitter is not it's not a problem have you read the article on how how how
often he flies his private jet because he's got to go from like one
course to the other it's like three flights a day you know but but this is but
to your point on Tesla you know he has to he's got to pay another year's worth of
bills on Twitter X here and where's he gonna get that money well it's it's it's
yeah exactly oh and last but not least you're talking you know competition with
EVs not to get political but there's a better than 50% chance that this
administration in the US changes and if there's a president Trump I don't think
EV credits or a thing going forward I think those are I think those are done
right so instantly overnight every single one of your new Tesla's just got more
expensive that's not helpful for the stock like you got to factor that in
politics you got to consider that I think I think Elon's probably like one
of the best stock entrepreneurs of a century like I'm not taking that away
from him and I think Tesla in the long run will be a winner I just think that
you know and like look I didn't sell all my stock like I I still have a small
position but I'm okay with it going to you know 60 bucks and you know but I'll
mean this and I'll probably if it goes to a hundred bucks I'll probably start
nibbling a bit but like my wife's gonna be my wife's gonna be on my ass if I
don't buy it like at a hundred bucks so I'll probably start entering yeah and I
think like I actually remember this very vividly at the end of 2022 like in a
December Tesla fell 70% it was crazy it was like every day down 10% and I remember
these like super bearish spaces were like everyone was convinced this thing is
going to like $25 and I'm like do you realize that like market makers have to
buy like it's because they had all these puts that were in the money for
January expiration which was the biggest well for a trailing 12-month
period January OpEx is the biggest options expert and there was like 20
billion in the money put or 20 million notional of puts that were in the money
so adopted for the delta there's like 20 billion dollars and I was like you
guys want to short like stay short into that tiger when you're when you're
about to buy Tesla again like spot DME I'm gonna buy you seem to know what the
fuck you're doing with the quit where the market is with it I mean like it
was the same thing for a lot of stocks not just Tesla like it was the same
thing for videos same thing for meta just like really easy buys and I think
you know Tesla is such a polarizing stock and there's a big component of the
narrative around Tesla on on Twitter or X where we want to call it I'm always
gonna call it Twitter but so you want to get really long Tesla when like the the
test the Q bear porn is like euphoric like max Tesla Q bear porn like that's
when you want to get super long because these guys get as greedy about shorting
as the Bulls get about being long on that stock so like that's when you want to
go super long and that's how they were at the end of 2022 it was a hundred
bucks they're like it's going to 25 like I'm like dude you're delusional it's
gonna have a bounce maybe it does eventually maybe it goes to 50
eventually but before it goes there it probably has a pretty massive bounce
which it did now if I remember there was a Morgan Stanley note that came out I
think it was in May about dojo it was a very bullish report super bullish and
the stock went from like 200 to 280 in like a month had a huge run but then
that like narrative started to die out and then obviously it's completely dead
now cuz on the call the other night he was like yeah this is not happening
anytime soon yeah look I mean there's a lot of things that are not like
screaming buys anymore like as as much as I'm a long-term bull on Nvidia like I
wouldn't necessarily like be super long it here I have started to sell some
cuz like I mean it's almost a two trillion dollar market the market cap of
Nvidia now is more than the total market cap of crypto how fucking insane is
that shit that's fucking insane that's insane that's insane like I can
understand Microsoft being you know up there I can just like understand Apple
and that of being up there in Google oh by the way I think that of the
mega caps I think that Google's probably like the easier buy at the
moment but yeah look like I think the easy money was made in the mega caps
already like by far easiest money was already made there yeah if you're but
if you're buying those things now it's like you're just playing with fire at
this point I mean listen I'm so long that I'm so long in the video but like
you're not adding to them now are you? No hell no if anything I'm gonna I'm gonna
take it off I'm gonna take some stuff off you know on crypto if you want to
shift it a bit it's funny how easy it is to call bottoms like I have a tweet in
the nest but we had like a combination of so many things in the last like few
days that was just like all right like you guys are like we're not even we're
not even at 30 grand you guys are acting like it's the end of the world Tiger
the the new Tia plays are staring people right in the face with the same
market makers launching with the same kind of supply dynamics go man it's it's
insane dude and I think you buy on though did you buy on there some of our
guys did but I got into Manta yeah that's my one real-world assets yeah I
think I think a real-world asset is the one that goes up into the right that's
what I consider a real-world asset cuz let me tell you real-world asset what
are we talking about brother like it's kind of wild cuz like man some of our
guys dude like you know I talked about sniping things out launched but like
one of our guys actually bought out layer out layer like the second that it
dropped man at like 25 cents so they actually got a better entry than myself
same thing with my way the don't I I told you about no sauna 70 cents oh yeah
ignore these AI plays do not yeah yeah yeah that's why I think the soul the
soul eco is gonna be like no sauna is still under like 200 million market
like all owning soul assets I think is gonna be more fruitful than each assets
cuz like with each assets and I tweeted about this on my personal profile it's
kind of like if you've seen Dragon Ball Z right drink the margin blue arc when
Goku slash Kakarot comes back from the dead and he only comes back from the dead
for like a day and he has this day where he basically just you know you
know destroys Majin Buu for a little bit and ultimately dies again but you know
he only has his hero moment for a day so I consider this cycle basically like
Goku resurrected during the Majin Buu saga and it's short-lived and you know
what do you know look at what happened dude when optimism and some of these
other names had their time in the Sun for like a year to they went back to the
to the dead you know what I mean and then the cycle just continues on and you
know I remember getting back to like a stable point yeah yeah and I got on a
call I got on a call with Zuzu like a couple of weeks back when Tia was at
like seven bucks or something and he's like yeah the things that are gonna
dominate this cycle is modularity and modularity in parallel EVM right and like
with ETH assets like they'll probably run only during like the bull cycle
rotations where they end right like you have deep like from the last cycle you
had DeFi summer you know summer of 2020 and then you had you know the Q1 run
up with Tesla buying and then you had like the late stage cycle stuff with
Luna Avax and Soul and Q4 of 21 right and throughout that entire rotation ETH
basically peaked last right and it had like a day or two of up performance and
and that was it right so I think it's probably gonna be the same thing with
ETH this cycle and you know if you take a look at you know Soul price now
at 90 bucks versus ETH right now at like 2300 I mean are you telling me
that ETH is gonna go to 20k because at the other day too like most of us are
here for the money like we all we're all here for the money actually for the
volatility I mean like dude here's the thing if it goes to 20k like everything
else is gonna go way more like yeah and I just don't think that's like feasible
dude because like brother like you remember when Pepe was running transactions on
ETH were like you know a couple hundred bucks and even on things like Avax
transactions were like a couple hundred bucks right so I think like
everyone is like kind of mid-curving ETH way too much like I think that Solana
has won the consumer if ETH is like this enterprise grade platform that's fine
but ultimately I think that Solana has won the consumer because of basically near
zero cost transactions on chain and like I just I just I don't I don't think you
have to overcomplicate man like there's just much more competition on the L1
side this cycle like I've been a Super Bowl on say for a while like dude I
think this thing is still super early like like like what Max was saying like
I think things go like if you like I've seen three cycles like if things go a
lot higher than you think you know yeah Kanag is gonna do us a solid
man but we'll see man I think I'm gonna I think I'm gonna wrap up here I think I
think today's show was pretty solid we talked all things narratives crypto things
the short term and all that good stuff we talked some equities as well so I
want to thank Max, Sethi, and Matt interview tiger I know Tucker wasn't able
to get some origin Tucker if you want to say something before I wrap up man feel
free to do so brother yeah he's not yeah he's not available man he's not saying
anything so I'm gonna wrap up here guys so we'll be back on Monday guys on our
YouTube show market check at 11 a.m. Eastern time but if not we'll catch you
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