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Market Talk : #Bitcoin being crushed by the dollar!?22k next?!
Recorded: Sept. 11, 2023 Duration: 1:59:00Space Recording
Full Transcription
And a big thanks to the official partner and sponsor of the BecauseBitcoin brand, OpenXXX, Max, I'll bring them up once they come into the space.
But as usual, guys, the space is recorded.
But as usual, guys, the space is recorded.
And thank you all for showing up.
It's a beautiful Monday.
And looking forward to the next day.
And we're going to be here.
And we're going to be here.
And we're going to be here.
That's kind of the question.
That's kind of the question.
and say, you know, say, and whatever.
It's a lot of, you're, like, if I think so, you know, it's going up to natural, I was going to be here with you.
And if you're, you know, I've got to be here with you.
We're going to be here with you.
Okay?
point and and for me i think honestly if you buy in that area i think you cut on the loss of 18.4
like lose 18.4 on the daily cut buys between 18 and 20k or between like you know between 19.7 and
18.4 yeah okay buy that region lose 18.4 sell it again yeah yeah man and i i do want to point
something out um you know a good a good uh representative of the brand snorlax was here in
the audience he put out a tweet pretty much near the top of the on-chain market uh back in early
august and he was mentioning how you know these rallies usually start in three stages i'll go
ahead and find that tweet but he says that in stage three it's pretty much it's pretty much like
once you get into a new token it usually runs it usually runs for like a couple of days and then
it just rugs right and today we had um a certain token that had tried to copy unibot uh and it has
the most ridiculous name it was called banana bot um max i'm sure you were pretty excited when you heard
that there was a token called banana bot um but yeah well i'm it's really a sad day because i actually
i lost everything in banana bot i was 100 actually 200 allocated to banana and uh this is it's actually
more of a dagger when i the first time i lost everything was in the bits lasso exchange and now
i've lost everything again in banana so it's it's another devastating blow for me yes very yeah but
the world of the world of defy is undergoing a massive uh restructuring and it's about to enter
a new paradigm but um yeah i think man like once you start getting all these clones trying to copy this
token that protocol what have you and then it just completely rugs at that point dude like the market
just doesn't care man and like we've been saying over the last couple of weeks on the show is that
you know when you have like the the front like like the big names of the on-chain market kind of just
bleed out and then start puking profusely right specifically rob and unibot it's like the market
just doesn't want to be positioned like i think now is when people are actually touching grass and saying
you know what man when we reduce exposure so what happens as that occurs over time and you start
having these tokens bleed against bitcoin people are gonna buy bitcoin man and they're not really gonna
buy some of these alts until later on in the year for the christmas rally right but crazy thing is
anything can happen from here until now and we have uh at the ftx estate um not estate i'm sorry but
uh the ftx holdings um they're about to sell some of their assets this week and i know the question
is like are they gonna sell on the market are they gonna sell otc i kind of think it's just kind of
both man you know i think some guys are gonna buy otc at discounted prices and then just dump on the
market right um this market is full of scammers and like that that's just the that's just the fact of
all markets man there's always going to be people that rugged deal right when you have otc buyers
it doesn't necessarily mean that those assets are going to be vested some guys they just get those
assets and they dump it on everyone's head regardless of what a contract says man just take
a look at what happened um with the with uh with like i think they're called nim capital where they had
dumped like a lot of uh a lot of their assets on on the synapse bridge for liquidity and
you know that was before a major governance vote and you know this market is pvp on all sides and
it wouldn't surprise me to see some of these alts just like take another puke um but i am excited for
the christmas rally nonetheless i know we're a couple of months out from christmas but um that's kind of
like where my head is at and the dollar is in a bullish uptrend and i have yet to see over the last
you know two years where the dollar is just raging and most of these cryptos tend to outperform but
i understand guys that like you do have those micro caps that you know they pump from half a mil
to 10 mil um and our discord has taken a part in that degeneracy but um i recall getting on a
on a late night discord call me and tucker usually have these 3 a.m calls to talk about life
um and to talk about you know what we're gonna train when we all meet up in miami again
um tucker what did i tell you brother at like 3 in the morning man during that phone call
about about what specifically um about about certain assets man about certain assets wabi wabi did uh did
project the bat signal for sure um and uh basically called the top on some on some on chain plays and
that was much appreciated um i mean they were they were looking like profit take spots anyway but i
mean the wabi bat signal is is not to be faded yeah we'd have to give the bat signal to snorlax first
man snorlax indeed has the bat signal if snorlax is bearish that is your bat signal yeah i i think like
as far as signal goes i'm like i'm like the complacency shoulder man you know not the top
but the complacency shoulder right and speaking about complacency shoulders um naka if you remember
when we first met that was right around when bitcoin had dumped from 44k to about what was it like 32 33k
and then we had rallied um all the way to 49k and like right near that complacency top i was like all
right it's time to kind of just walk away and be in stables but we all know what happened after that
and that's kind of the feeling that i got um like a week or two ago but um anyways
jack is off he's here oh but he can't speak for like the next five minutes or so um but tucker man
as far as the equity markets fan how are we looking bud how are we looking i'm taking a look at some of
these miners and i think we might see a one handle on one of them and i think at that point
at that point dude like i might just open um a brokerage account because i don't think that specific
miner is going anywhere anytime soon yeah no i think i think we're gonna have some
some very juicy opportunities and some of these miners once uh i mean they're gonna track bitcoin so
you know once once we get bitcoin uh you know lower consolidating i think punting some miners is
probably a good call but i mean in general like i've been saying i think uh i think equities are
putting in a lower high until proven otherwise um with the confluence of crypto and the uh obviously
if you're a rock respecter um and we got cpi coming up like i'm i'm thinking they might use it
as an excuse to send it lower and and snorlax said this in our discord call and it's absolutely
correct like or maybe it was max it was max if you see them algo walk it up into cpi that should
scare you i mean that should have always scared you but that is not a good sign um if they're just
walking it straight up into cpi so i mean i'm not expecting anything like great i'm not you know i'm
not expecting like a four handle or something on it but um you know i'm i'm just thinking they're
going to use it to go lower honestly i think i think it just needs to find value lower because
i don't think it's here and you know i think there's a lot of a lot of bullish complacency
in the equity markets and uh a lot of tail risk being ignored but um generally speaking that's
that's kind of where i stand on equities and crypto could be front-running it like that was something
uh somebody in our discord said like is crypto front-running uh equities and cpi puke and i
you know maybe very it very well could be um so yeah i mean that's that's kind of where i stand
on equities i'm not positioned any any sort of way on equities right now i'm just kind of using
crypto as a proxy but um yeah i mean i think i think risk in all markets going at least over the next
six weeks is a little bleak i'll say so um yeah that's that's where i'm at with equities
you know it's crazy man speaking of equities i was looking at something over the weekend
and i noticed that usually the quarter leading up to the having tlt tends to tends to rally and then
after the having right after the having tlt pretty much just breaks down to a downtrend so i'm wondering
if that's a trade man uh max that is interesting bro that's i had not looked at tlt in correlation
with the havings that that's actually very interesting i know man who would have thought
that wabi sometimes looks at macro who knew we're all just macro larps up here man what else is there
yeah i i sent i sent joe uh a speaker invite we'll see if uh he he manages to pull through but
i understand that some people um are taking the day off due to today's date um but max i know that
you yourself you're looking uh at uh at a long tlt trade man what what's what's what's that about
again man if you can go into some granular detail about that we can talk about some tlt and then
we'll go straight back into crypto because that's what the people um are tuning in for but you know
just a trade that i've noticed that has been set up throughout the last uh couple of havings
tlt typically rallies into the having and then breaks down so i haven't ever overlaid i haven't
ever overlaid tlt with a bitcoin chart i'm not gonna lie so i can't really comment on how it correlates
to the having but i mean we could talk about it it's kind of boring honestly man like if you really
want to go that route we can but um i mean it that's a really that's just a boring boring topic
but i'm happy to explain it but it's just you know it's not it's not super engaging or fun but
i mean basically it's a bet that you know we're nearing the end of the fed's tightening cycle and
that um they're going to drop interest rates and then while i'm accumulating bonds at you know
these higher yields i'll be able to sell these bonds uh you added a highly appreciated value to
somebody else um when the new issued bonds are not generating as much yield so it's basically just
a bet that one either you know that they're going to drop interest rates soon we're approaching the
end of the tightening cycle or the market's going to go risk off because if the market goes risk off
and we get a major correction in equities whether it's now whether it's early next year who knows
you're going to see you're going to see bonds catch a bid because there's a perception of safety
there and you know whether we i don't really like debating whether or not the u.s government is a
good tenant and we'll pay their their obligations because i think if they don't pay their obligations
we've got a much bigger problem so it can be a fun hypothetical i suppose but yeah i mean i think
when it comes time to go risk off like would you rather hold corporate debt um u.s equities i guess
foreign equities or um i mean like where's the safety you know and like in my opinion when
shit really hits the fan the one that's most likely to pay you is probably going to be the
united states government for better or for worse so you know i i do have i do have an allocation i'm
not actually playing tlt i'm playing tmf um had a pretty good purchase recently at the most i haven't
even looked at it recently maybe it's made a new low i'm not sure i'm kind of in like mindless dca mode
to it because i think it's the season of accumulation but it can be a long accumulation
and i'm always the one preaching like it's not about the price it's about the time and i do stand
by that you know you you want to buy something when it has the greatest probability of expansion
afterwards not just because you maybe bought the low you could sit there and wait forever
i'm a prime example of that with tmf like i've been accumulating at local lows and it just sits
there and doesn't really rally so it could take a little bit longer but i think it's a good
i think it's a good it's a good addition to a well-balanced portfolio you know and i i'm fine
holding it one thing i'd like to just comment on i put this tweet up in the nest right after the close
tonight um well tonight for me in the u.s i'm not sure about everybody else but upon the new daily
close today for bitcoin we will get the uh the infamous death cross i actually did a comprehensive
video on it i went through like the past half dozen death crosses that we've had um and i mean
typically the very short-term reaction i think it's probably like we get the death cross and then
algos sort of fomo into it and start market shorting and there's a very short-term squeeze or pop there
was only one example i could find where we really had a substantial squeeze i don't think that that
really aligns with what i would expect to happen here um i could maybe see some like algo driven
bottom shorting you know getting squeezed initially but i do expect this to i i am anticipating further
downside not necessarily because of the death cross the death cross is really just a lagging indicator
that you know just tells everybody what we've been basically screaming for months that this is
distribution and momentum is dwindling on a higher time frame and it's represented in two higher time
free moving averages crossing over each other it's just a slowing down of momentum it's nothing
profound but you know it's not insignificant in the sense that yes there is a serious momentum issue
and it's to the downside right now we've got a lot of supply above head i don't think there's true
demand of 25k and i think we're going to continue to bleed and you know if it it happens to be triggered
by you know algos or even traders manually shorting because we actually did get the death cross
well it's possible you know conditions are liquid it's certainly possible but
yeah i mean we have a momentum issue momentum is seriously strong to the downside right now
um and it is going to be reflected in that official death cross later today you know within uh what four
hours from now so yeah i'm expecting more downside no doubt about it no doubt about it at all i don't know
if i want to talk like where i could see price going because i'm actually i'm not even playing bitcoin
i'm literally just shorting altcoins i think that shorting bitcoin might be the safest thing to do
in the sense that i don't think it will squeeze as much as some altcoins if we do get like a short
covering rally or something like that but i am expecting a bitcoin dominance rally here to degree
i'm expecting basically every single alt including ethereum to bleed uh back into or against bitcoin
um so it's like this whole weekend i was short matic and i'm still short matic matic split like
seven percent from like the close on friday until now bitcoin is just starting its bleed you know it
hasn't really even sort of detached itself from the structure that it was basing in before so i think
the majority of your focus if you're interested in trying to play some downside is probably best suited
in altcoins i mean there's truly no demand for some of these altcoins right now like truly no demand
you can justify potentially trying to pick up some spot bitcoin at certain levels you cannot justify
trying trying to buy a 50 cent matic i'm sorry or or a or 17 or 18 salon i mean some of these altcoins
have a long way to go they will retest their lows no doubt about it uh but you just have to be careful
because they're going to squeeze but you know you can you could chase some beta and a low leverage altcoin
short and that's going to be the winning recipe over the next month in my opinion but i'll leave it at
that for now yeah speaking of solana max um i'm looking at the uh digital asset holdings for ftx
and uh they hold they hold uh half a bill in bitcoin uh 1.1 bill in seoul uh just under 200 mil
uh of eth and then the rest are just like tickers not worth mentioning man and like i said earlier i
kind of think it's half half i think half of it will be sold otc i think half of it will be sold on
the market because these lawyers um have to get paid man they're getting paid like 500 bucks an hour
something something crazy um and i'm not sure to like what that hourly basis cost looks like but if
it's running 24 7 and this is this is a case that runs 24 7 just like mount gox uh a lot of these
assets are going to have to be sold on the market man um but you know most of the ft most of the ftx
solana um is actually locked um and won't be won't be able to be sold on the open market until 2028
um but you know anything can happen with with some of these vested contracts right um i see we have
matt in here i'll go ahead and uh send him that invite man but max uh are you excited for the
christmas rally that that that is that is my next question man do you believe that end of year we
could put on our rally caps on and uh schedule our our forbes interview just like uh ben cowen says
i'm kind of ready to go out of the sandbox again man um hoping we're out of the woods at that point
uh maybe i i won't i won't say i'm not ready for it i think that that'd be fun i don't know i i just
i see a lot of headwinds and i think we need to uh we need to work our way through them before i can
even think about bidding truthfully um i don't think this is going to necessarily be like as quick
of a turnaround as a lot of people are thinking not that we couldn't have a rally into the end of
the year but i just i don't i can't really entertain bidding right now like i think i will i'll happily
answer that question like end of november something like that but right here i want to kind of see how
this plays out first there's just so much stuff going on right now and i could see a path where
bitcoin holds 22 and you know that's the area to shove but i could also see a case where bitcoin
goes down to like 13k so it's not all going to happen at once but i definitely definitely uh i
want to just be careful here because i don't really see much that's indicating now is the time to bid
but i could in november end of november and then you know maybe we get a christmas rally but right now
i just it's just not the time not even close but maybe you know maybe you could be on to something
you want to see that you want to see that tweet that i tweeted yesterday for more people
i i do need to see the tweet yeah i need to see that tweet wabi that's uh can can you read it out
loud you you you hit me with some pasta last night can you read that yeah i need to see a tweet i need
to see a tweet like this guys and it's important yeah so uh the following tweet man it says uh
hey everyone after speaking with friends and family i've determined that it's best for my
mental health to take some time from trading and twitter i was pretty overexposed at the highs and
i took a pretty significant hit i'll be back better than ever love you all and i realized through that
it's only when people like post doom like that where it's like oh man what's going on i have to
check in with this guy man and it's like sometimes it's sometimes it's just pasta on on both extremes man
but honestly man like i kind of want to tweet out some bullish propaganda man that that that that
really gets people going man and even myself dude um but max man before we pass it on to other
speakers i know uh jack is is is ready to go now but max for like you know the for the individual
that's new to to the world of cryptocurrency investing um like where where would you guide
them because i i know it's definitely not like the on-chain markets but given some conditions
right now like where would you lead them like if someone were to come up on stage right now and be
like hey guys you know i'm new to crypto investing i'm coming from the stock market you know i'm tuning
into your spaces right now and i'm wondering like what's the first place to look yeah yeah no that's a
great question i think that tether is going to perform very well against uh every other crypto in the
coming months so i'd probably turn them to to tether right now but yeah that's that's probably it
probably just tether i mean you know honestly i i'm i'm actually personally more bullish on usdc
i think it has more upside that's a good pick as well knocker yeah very good pick i appreciate that
you can you can get a usdc bull token i think if you want to leverage long on it um
i i mean like all joking aside like i'm i'm kind of joking but there's also a lot of truth
you know kind of line in what i just said i i wouldn't recommend that anybody who's new
start positioning right now like fresh money i i think that maybe closer to the end of the year
you know we can we can bring back that conversation i don't i don't really see it right here i could
certainly be wrong i mean you know been wrong before so uh i mean if you had to position in
something i would just say bitcoin like always bitcoin um yeah i mean i think bitcoin is going
to be the one that probably suffers the least has the least amount of potential drawdown it's going to
be the safest it's not going to rug um i think that eptc is going to bleed like crazy so i wouldn't
i wouldn't buy ethereum here um but i know we got jackus in here jackus might might slightly
disagree with that i know we him and i have talked about that before and i definitely can see where
he's coming from and he's got some great arguments for it but i i i don't necessarily think it i don't
think that eth is going to hold up that well against bitcoin so there's no point in holding any alt
coin if it's going to bleed against bitcoin like i don't care about your tech right now like i'll care
about your tech when conditions are good um i don't care about any of the promises that your team
is making right now for your altcoin or your project um if it's going to bleed against bitcoin
i will happily be a holder when i think that it's going to outperform bitcoin and you know then we
can talk about you know the problems that you're solving and the utility of your project or your token
but i mean if you're talking to somebody who's new to crypto and they're like i have to position
right now like i'm at gunpoint i need to buy something that's not stables i mean probably just
bitcoin truthfully like it's that's the best advice i could give but i would honestly say it's
probably just stable up man just stable up cash up honestly like we're not in a bull market we're not
close to a bull market i wish we were but we're not just i just want everybody to be careful all
right i don't think this is going to be over okay i don't think it's going to be i don't think it's
going to be a quick like snapback reclaim of like 26k and then like new highs i don't think this is
the dip to shove right before the having i think it's the start of it but yeah i wouldn't throw fresh
money at anything right now actually quite the opposite i'd probably be pulling money out
and just just sort of stacking and waiting to shove later
and speaking of jackass man jackass are you uh good to go now brother
yeah uh jackass uh is not ready to go at the current moment man but
naka uh zero we'll uh we'll we'll get to you after after the other guys man
but uh naka i see you posted something on the nest man what's going on brother are you gonna hit us with
a dad joke well this isn't quite a dad joke but i think uh on this day there is there is a funny
prediction which i think might come true i call it the 911 for crypto which is $900 eth and 11k bitcoin
and uh that is my that is my price target right now
naka fresh lows what's what's going on brother like what exactly are you uh anticipating because
for us to like make new lows i kind of think that something major um would have to happen honestly
man i i would say either something crazy like something happened happening to binance um or
something happening to something like like rollbit or unibot that's really the only thing i i don't
think i don't think rollbit can send us lower i don't think it's big enough um it's just some stupid
on chain shit coin but like i mean i i think it may just be that there's too many parasites in the
industry uh too many vcs people being rugged too much um you know plus like bad price leads to bad
price plus you know there are a lot of bearish catalysts at the moment yeah they the one thing
we do have i guess we have the etf narrative which is a potential bullish catalyst um but apart from
that you've got equities are extended to the upside at the moment so there's a downside catalyst there
if they start going down you have the ftx estate has a whole bunch to sell yes it does but invests
linearly so that means it's continuous sell pressure um so i mean i don't think it's exactly
bullish for there to be billions and billions of this crap to be sold over the next couple of
years um then you have the binance situation then you have the barry silbert situation you know
like there there are a lot of potential bearish catalysts you can't really tell from the information
that's public when these catalysts are going to pop like a lot of people speculated that luna was going
to pop quite a long time before it did right um but you but it's but it's very hard to time right
and anyone who tried to go short based upon the idea that what do kwan was doing was basically
pontification um that he was trying to make luna too big to fail and he was going to market sell
bitcoin and crash the price i mean people speculated about all of that stuff and the price just fucking
went up right because they were they weren't wrong they were just early but obviously in markets wrong
and earlier kind of the same thing so i mean a lot of these bear catalysts that we've been talking
about you know oh and regulation of course is another negative catalyst um you can have more
draconian anti-crypto laws that come down they've been cut and cbdc's as well so you know there's like
a whole bunch of these it's hard to say which one will send us down but if any one of these pops
um i think it could and and you know it may just be that we sort of collect
like we collect up a whole bunch of these negative things and they tend to all be fine as long as the
price is good and then once the price is no longer good people are like okay i want my money back okay
i'm gonna sue you now okay we're gonna drop the regulatory hammer like there's a lot of correlation
or even causation i guess between bad price and bad fundamentals like bad price actually causes bad
fundamentals it's not that bad fundamentals cause bad price it can actually go both ways
so i'm not super clear but i do think that that the kind of 13k target is what the stable coin supply
ratio in fact the stable coin supply ratio is currently telling us it's going to go to about 8k
that probably means that if it does ever try to go down that low we'll get some more stable coins
because people will bid um but yeah i mean you know i think the crypto 9-11 is is a funny um
900 eth 11k bitcoin we'll see if that happens
yeah we'll see man uh if eth goes back to three digits man i'm gonna have to shave my face
so bobby you said you said shave everything brother not just the face is everything man
everything everything bro i said my face man the lock if eth goes to three digits and bitcoin
goes to four digits do you have to get like circumcised and as well or something or
whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa hold on naka i need you to be like a truck
and back off all right brother um but uh anyways yeah that's that's sort of a bet um that i made
like if eth goes to three digits i shave my face though the the long locks aren't going anywhere man
um but we do have a new speaker um zero zero uh i i know you've taken a part of some of the
discussions with uh one of our co-workers will's outlook man so haven't seen you here before man
so welcome to the stage man hope you're doing well what have you got for us brother and then
after you we'll go to uh we'll go to matt actually we'll go to yeah we'll go to matt then we'll who
came who came first i think kane came in first so we'll go to kane and then matt after yourself man
but what's going on brother thanks for coming up yeah just bringing some data and i'd love to collect
either counter data or additional data so so one is that like bitcoin according to people watching me
saying that they haven't seen a green september since 2016 so curious about thoughts on that the
other is um there's some very distinct charts showing like m2 so global m2 which is like cash
generally cash that people have accessible to them being highly um mapped to the crypto total market cap
and right now as you know m2 is down because and and you know shooting down farther and farther
because we're in uh quantitative tightening so i'm curious if um anyone here has looked into that
before how much do you feel the macro economy is pushing down crypto and then if you do agree
that would mean that i i don't see any recovery um because the recovery would require m2 to go up
therefore we would have to go from quantitative tightening back to either neutral or easing and that
make that could be one to three years away and during which time uh m2 would further deplete
amongst people because inflation is high interest rates are high therefore you know your wallet your
cash wallet fiat reduces so there's less money going around to buy uh so anyway so to summarize like
i'm just curious if people here have done research around the m2 charts and do they believe it requires
like a quantitative easing announcement from the fed for crypto to go back up especially bitcoin
yeah uh i'll refer to max on that point i know he did uh quite a long and extensive video on that
but as far as your first question when it comes to like september seasonality man um i would tend to
lean towards like the bear side of things um i was a bear last september um and typically septembers are
pretty much always bearish unless it's like the year after um the halving and usually for those
years like the first half of september is pretty bearish in the second half there tends to be
somewhat of a little recovery but usually outside of that man septembers are are typically bearish most
of the time but um max if you want to go ahead and answer um zero's question about like m1 and m2
um i posted uh your tweet up there which has the video that you did for us um up on the nest
yeah hey zero my apologies i actually i missed half of that i was i was walking somewhere else in
my building i didn't expect a question i heard a little bit of it could you just repeat the the
question for me i'd be happy to answer it nice to meet you yeah how are you doing so i i put it at
the top i'm also going to check out your tweet because that's really cool you have an m1 uh tweet so
this is an older post of mine i'm not trying to get engagement on it it's just a actual post
showing the graph of m2 uh you can click on it there there's not no no shilling the m2 charts
the global m2 appears to map directly to um the crypto total market cap year over year percentage
and it also maps to the bitcoin halving makes me wonder sometimes if do we really need to wait until
m2 or people's cash goes up before uh bitcoin goes up is it is it really that correlated
and is it the driver instead of the halving
i i would think it's probably important i think if we saw i think if we saw any resemblance of and
again this is just my opinion i don't really know because i to my knowledge bitcoin hasn't really
existed in a time where m2 has been significantly decreasing for an extended period of time if at
all so i mean i would think if we did have any sort of bull market in bitcoin it would be relatively
muted compared to the sort of parabolic expansions that we've seen historically if we did get a bull
market maybe post bitcoin halving and it coincided with um m2 falling as well so i think it would be
extremely difficult to see really any major like true parabolic price discovery in any risk assets
bitcoin included if we have a decreasing monetary supply so uh that's just my opinion but yeah i mean
i would i would think it's probably pretty important so yeah i think that's that's a good take that's why
i often warn people is like they think they're buying everything at a discount but the thing is like
until i see like m2 and cash and like people just having disposable income being higher i i can't say
that that's a great idea like you could see lower lows right yeah for sure for sure and i don't know
exactly when it will turn around i mean we can you know we can wildly speculate on things like that but
that's why i've been emphasizing i mean naka spends a lot of time talking about stablecoin supply ratios or
stablecoin market caps and i mean m2 is it's more or less it's like the trad fi equivalent of that
you know that's that's where our liquidity is that's largely what drives your major inflows into
the market so um i just think it's you want to be patient like when we start seeing stablecoin
market caps from usdc tether die you know just whatever the list goes on forever all the the major
stablecoins begin to increase and maybe that lines up with m2 increasing as well um you know then i
think you know we could prospect a new bull market but until then uh probably not and i did a video on
this too um you know bitcoin adjusted for m1 is very interesting that was it's right behind your tweet
in the nest it's uh it's a very interesting range that it trades in and bitcoin divided or adjusted for
m2 and the increase or decreases in m2 is also a very interesting chart i've spent a little bit of
time um sort of diving diving into that as well um it's it's interesting in the sense that bitcoin
adjusted for m2 basically came back to retest the equivalent of 13k during the ftx drop where of
course ftx drop and in u.s dollar denomination actually took us only to like 15 8 15 7 but while
adjusted for m2 it actually significantly dropped you know further than that so i'll be curious to see
you know let's just assume we get some more bearish continuation here there are some levels that i think
that you know maybe naka's prospecting like bitcoin going to 9k or 10k or 11k and i'd be curious to see
what that translates to at the time of bitcoin as adjusted for m2 because i i think that that level
that naka's talking about is probably more likely to get hit on the bitcoin as adjusted for m2 chart
than it actually is btc usd i don't really see bitcoin going much lower than like 13 or 14k
but i think bitcoin as adjusted for m2 it would be the equivalent of testing that level you know like
if you put the bitcoin usd chart next to the bitcoin divided by m2 chart you could see bitcoin basically
come back to retest like the point uh you know the exact price that it was at for the 2020 halving
or something like that but anyway it's an interesting topic like i like tinkering with these little ratios
great conversation guys great conversation man um i actually posted something up on the nest
from our good friend ben cowan uh we'll try to get them on the show uh in early october perhaps
perhaps mid-october once uh the september blues um have gone out the window and um you know we've been
putting in uh closes below the bull market support band um for for for a couple of weeks now man
and golly man um we're pretty much in the same exact position that we were in um for quite some time
in in 2022 i believe once we got rejected um off of the bull market support band in early january
we tried to retest it in late march early april failed and did not cross above it until um until this
january so we're talking like nine months nine months of uh of pure pain and oddly enough oddly enough
um max uh when we had lost the bull market support band and uh in 2019 we pretty much spent um like a
little over six months below the bull market support band until we regained it and and d5 summer so it's
it's it's it's sort of like history doesn't rhyme but it often repeats itself and if we were if we
were to apply that that same time frame like we basically don't get above the bull market support
band until until near the halving right so if all btc does here is just chop and there's no like
narrative to push it up it's just underwater uh underwater territory man so um max in your opinion man
um and then we'll go to uk but max in your opinion how do how do equities look uh look in your eyes
man is like are you seeing the tech bid um still there uh what are you seeing as far as like the
equity markets go man because you know seeing crypto kind of just bleed out while equities just range
um it sort of paints this picture similar to uh how the market was in in 2015 um where equities
was just outperforming bitcoin um to an extreme degree and just hitting all-time high after all-time
high after all-time high i'm sort of wondering like you know what if indices break all-time high
and btc is still below 30k man that would be that would be quite the downer and i think at that point
like i think some of these laws would just continue to bleed lower because there's not much really to
do um on chain as there was you know back in may and june yeah equities are at an interesting spot
um i could definitely see the path to an all-time high i don't think it's my base case i'm actually
expecting some more downside this month i'd be i'd definitely be a little bit surprised if we didn't
get more downside this month um in equities but it's at a weird spot in the sense that
you know i could see this being like a potential reclaim this has been a nice bounce so far right
here but i could very much you know also entertain the prop the possibility that this is just a bounce
into a complacency shoulder or lower high so i don't really know i don't have as clear of a read on
the equity markets um you know most of my concentration is is on what crypto is doing but
it's it's at a really it's at a really weird spot it's at a really weird spot and i know we're we
were pretty close to all-time highs and we arguably still are but i am seeing a little bit of weakness
or sort of complacency um in equity markets and i'll i said this earlier tucker was kind enough to uh to
mention it already on the space but we do a cpi on wednesday cpi is is uh i believe the the
consensus right now is forecasted at 3.6 percent the previous print was 3.2 percent so that's not
a problem necessarily that they're forecasting it being higher the potential issue with it is
okay one this would be the second month in a row that it has increased and two i think if it comes
in a little bit north of an already north or hot uh forecast then i think it becomes a little bit
sticky um and also on top of that what i saw today was i don't even know if i would call it strength
um or more of a mechanical walk-up early in the week i typically don't like to pile in to the
direction before cpi i think it's more oftentimes than not used to basically just sort of boomerang
um or trap liquidity whatever you want to call it so i don't know if this is strength i don't really
view it a strength i'm not deriving too much signal from what we had today it was just a really
mechanical walk-up we've got you know one trading session left until the print the print comes out
you know pre-market monday morning i'm sorry wednesday morning so we'll see what happens but
yeah i think they could potentially use cpi um they could use it as sort of a an excuse to just send
things lower you know maybe it comes in right at 3.6 percent but you know one you know within that
3.6 percent there's a bunch of different categories maybe one of the categories is off a little bit or
you know something else comes out that maybe spooks the market a little bit i don't know like
i really am of the belief that for one someone already knows the print a lot of people already
know the print um they already know where the problems are going to be and they're already
positioning for it so that's why i like to typically fade moves going into cpi because i think
that they're misleading so i don't think that they're walking it up because cpi is going to
somehow be interpreted as you know overly bullish um so we'll see what happens tomorrow like if they
send this thing right back down to the weekly open then you know negates what i just said but
i do think that we will have more of a resolution or more clarity on where the near-term path for
equities is wednesday probably wednesday midday you know we'll see what happens but yeah i mean
guess reminder for everybody we do have cpi coming out monday i'm sorry i keep saying monday cpi
wednesday pre-market so expect some volatility expect some whipsaws if you're trading options like i am
contract pricing just gets absolutely just warped around this time like 24 to 48 hours out from the
print so probably best honestly to just position afterwards if you're not already in some stuff but
i you know i am seeing equities bouncing into what could be a lower high and we do cpi after the next
trading session so i am expecting downside and if i don't know if crypto is leading or just doing its
own thing you can decide for yourself but it's hard for me to imagine wabi like you mentioned what if
equities go to all-time high and crypto just nukes how bearish i am on what we're seeing in crypto right
now i don't think i could necessarily see a decoupling that to that degree where we see
so much strength so much overwhelming strength and equities that you know crypto some alts like
matic or soul you know go back to retest their their local lows or their their two-year lows
imagine if we saw like a ten dollar soul again or a seven dollar solana or a 25 cent matic and a
19k bitcoin and a nine hundred dollar eth and qqqs at all-time highs i don't think i would put a super
high probability to a scenario like that not at this point it's not impossible but i i think that
the markets are a little bit more correlated and in my opinion i mean crypto goes through periods of
leading and lagging what happens in in trad fi um you know you could you could line up high time frame
tops and bottoms and sometimes it leads sometimes it lags depending on how you squint your eyes but
i think that crypto is potentially painting a picture here for what could happen in equities
truthfully and it might not happen this week but i am expecting a repricing to the downside
nothing too crazy but i'm definitely not a buyer up here max and you know what's crazy man you know
i know i've been harping on about this but um if you take a look at orange juice futures dude this thing
has been astronomically parabolic all year dude so just just to give some context right just to give
some context uh orange juice is up a hundred percent over the last 12 months that is better than pretty
much like the top 10 uh cryptos they're really putting the squeeze um on the digital asset space
due to a lack of concentration um but max i do want to point something out to you and i put it up on the
nest um a bit earlier it's uh from will clementine i mean clemente i'm sorry but uh a couple couple of days
ago um coinbase basically uh is they're trying to launch a crypto lending service for institutions
and that to me is ringing a bell um it's ringing a bell of uh familiarity of what occurred in uh 2019
2020 2021 with some of these uh lending desks man so max do you believe that you know coinbase is
leading the charge um for a growth in concentration for 2024 2025 uh for that cycle man i'm kind of
feeling that amidst all this bearishness there's like these little uh tiptoeing steps in the background
to kind of you know have that generational um bid by wall that there was uh at 16k or even during the
last yeah um or during the last bottom retest of the last um like pre-having cycle which was the
covid crash at 3800 do you think like these little things are kind of setting up at least some sort of
floor because i know you know there are some individuals that are expecting you know four
digit btc um for their own personal reasons so yeah so i i'll say this i'll say this and then i
actually i gotta go it's time to go be a dad but i will uh this is a very interesting this is a very
interesting topic i i don't think it sets the floor at all um i actually i mean i've been saying
this for a long time that i think that the more institutions get involved you know the more
they're gonna corner this market or try to corner this market and award themselves the opportunity to
you know accumulate spot at significantly cheaper prices while everybody's been cheering cheering
them on for for joining thinking they're gonna pump their bags i actually think it's gonna be
quite the opposite um so i mean i think you know in the long term like for one i'm very i'm bullish
on coinbase i think coinbase is a great company i'm definitely willing to make a bet on on brian
armstrong but i don't think that this sets the floor at all truthfully um i think they're really
just sort of setting the stage for uh they're setting the stage for post accumulation you know
they're going to create michael saylor's paradigm on a you know maybe a smaller scale he's all in
right they won't they won't go all in or anything like that but you know they're going to create a
paradigm where you can basically they're going to accumulate spot bitcoin at prices that will never be
seen again um and then they're going to never sell it and they're just going to treat it like real
estate and they're going to never actually touch the cash they're going to accumulate spot bitcoin
maybe at naka's price levels i don't know maybe higher and then every you know year when it
appreciates just like an apartment building you know every few years they're gonna just basically
refinance it or in this instance maybe they'll be issued a line of credit from coinbase or you know
some other company and they'll just borrow against their appreciating asset and you don't have to pay
you know capital gains or any there's no taxation on debt so they're just going to continually borrow
against a perpetually appreciating asset it's a beautiful paradigm if it comes to fruition but i
think in the short term i think they corner the market i think they crush the market i think they
they miss the boat and when institutions miss the boat they don't go oh shit we missed the boat all
right you know let's take a dinghy out there and you know we'll get we'll hop on the boat nope they pull the
boat back in and then they get aboard so uh i don't think it sets the floor but i i am encouraged by
i am encouraged by the vision and i think it's super bullish long term because it's i mean again
we're not reinventing the wheel here like this model has been around forever you know you can borrow
against all of your real world assets as they appreciate wealthy people they don't incur a lot of
capital gains tax like they hold assets that appreciate forever and they just borrow against it and they
just have access to cheap debt and they never pay taxes on it and that's i mean that's like it's the
biggest cheat code right i mean there's nothing wrong with it i'm just saying like what they're
doing isn't profound being able to borrow against your digital assets isn't profound i just hope they
do it a little bit safer than you know all the uh the you know the half dozen companies that went belly
up during the bear market because they were extending too much debt to people that basically the top of
the market so um yeah i mean again i love the vision but this i don't think it has anything to
do with the price at all you know but they're setting the stage for institutions to come aboard
the only way institutions want to come aboard is if they can access that liquidity institutions don't
have the same um they don't necessarily have the same sort of diamond hand vision that a lot of us do
they don't they don't dream of a hyper bitcoinized world where you they're transacting in bitcoin they
don't give a damn about that what they want is access to their appreciated liquidity and that's
how they're going to do it is through lending protocols or um you know centralized uh crypto
lenders that will issue them a three percent interest only line of credit you know with a
three-year lock on the the rate or something and they can strategically access their liquidity
against their appreciating assets so they don't care about hyper bitcoinization they don't even care
about the technology they just recognize that this is a way for them to basically just access
more cheap debt against an appreciating asset so in that instance it's the same thing that i did in
real estate every time one of my properties went up in value um and i had the opportunity to refinance
and pull out you know a hundred thousand dollars and then go buy another property with it i did it
that's what everybody does like that's literally that's investing 101 so they're just they're just
setting the stage for real investors to come join all of us that's all that they're doing and it's a good
thing like it's the asset class is maturing but it doesn't set the floor
max great stuff man i know you have to go now uh but we'll pick up on this conversation and uh
yeah i'm kind of in agreement that it does come with uh market maturity but you know as far as like
bringing back the dinghy and all that stuff man let's see how uh close that dinghy let's see how close
that dinghy comes back to the shoreline man no no no they don't bring back the dinghy i said if they
miss the boat they take they don't take the dinghy out there to go get on the boat i don't know they
call the yacht and call the boat doesn't respond they'll sink the boat and build a new one
yeah they send yeah they just sink the boat and then they build their own boat back i don't know
all right guys i gotta go be a dad take care good talk everybody all right man great great stuff max
looking forward that's a tomorrow discussion but jack is welcome back brother how you feeling man
great to have you
hey guys uh do you hear me well yep you're good to go man you're good to go man awesome that was a
lovely talk from max uh about the institutions i loved i i think that's the road we are heading to
and i think that was some good thoughts in there um is there is there any question actually wabi
at this point it's more like just uh it's more like just general discussion man but
something that i touched upon earlier in the conversation um was dollar strength and also like
you know does that have any sort of confluence um with cpi readings um you know next to uh september
seasonalities where usually september october it's not really as good uh for risk on and i'm kind of
looking at the dollar now maybe i'm a bit too late on that sort of uh uh confluence but you know i can't
help but like look at how like how strong the dollar works and you know with uh btc under the bull market
support bands you know i can't help but anticipate you know some some repricing man going uh going
into october honestly man um yeah so general market thoughts well the dollar has been basically uh
ranging since uh actually since the beginning of the year so i'm i'm still hard time frame bearish on
this one and locally uh it it was currently going upwards which put off uh lots of pressure on the
markets uh and we have not seen that yet in stocks but i still um am the believer of what i was saying
in the past about uh the equities which is sort of like this pullback we just had maybe sideways
and then we probably had to uh new all-time highs in next year i i still see that as the most likely
outcome and for now i don't have any reason to to change that bias like like this dollar strength
that's just sort of mid time frame but you know all in all uh the dollar i i expected to be going
way down way down way down in the in the coming weeks months and years uh i think that the current
uh strength in the dollar was mainly due to the weakness in the japanese yen uh and i think lots of
people are not paying too much attention to it but there there is what we've been discussing that you
know uh the japan is gonna start selling the the u.s bonds once once the ratio reaches 150 dollars
or sorry 150 uh yen for a dollar right so when that happens by the way i love the confluence of
like like these are the words of the governor of japanese central bank and i just love that he said
it's 150 so it's like psychological number then he said it and then it's like the perfect ta confluence
there and yeah so i think if that happens you know he will be looking to strengthen the yen
and when we see that we will see the dollar drop again because the dollar index is mainly uh you know
it mainly consists of obviously euro which which has the largest uh percentage in it and by the way i
think this is pretty interesting that we have actually seen uh the dollar make a um higher high
right now on the weekly but we have not yet seen uh the euro usd making a new lower low on the weekly
in my opinion that's well well that's that's a confirmed uh intermarket divergence but in my
opinion that shows the strength in the euro market for whatever reason uh and i think you know we will
see dollar at lower prices later on and i still you know like looking at btc uh currently dropping so
we've been discussing this possibility uh in the past uh spaces and streams and so on so like to me
i'm not really that excited because you know i still don't view it as something significant happened
just yet i i think most of us sort of expected this move and i don't see much reason to change uh my bio
my higher time frame bias for btc either and i i think the current weakness is mainly still due to
you know i i think actually there are um three main factors in uh crypto right now
so the first thing is definitely by binance and the weakness in the bnb chart so as long as that
prevails uh you know there is a downwards pressure for the whole market and i think that you know if
for example bnb drops to 150 i don't i don't think bnb goes back to like 50 but i can see it dropping to
150 i cannot tell you know it can just sweep the current uh weekly low daily low and and reverse it's
possible too so for now i'm bearish on it obviously but you know if if we see that reversion it's gonna
uh the market is gonna react upon it so this one is in my opinion a major pressure i i think that
drop for bnb to 150 would probably be like btc dropping to like to that 22k maybe 20k you know who
knows uh i don't see it but it's possible so that's the number one pressure and that's bnb in my opinion i
i think once that's out of the window then then we will probably reverse the market uh then second
pressure is commodities obviously because you know they've been uh they've been bearish they've been
going down lately and obviously btc has been has been going down with it and once they catch the bit
which i think they will uh then obviously i i think btc will revert to and hence the crypto market and
i think it's gonna line up very well and then the third is obviously the the spot etf and i think that
they gonna you know as usual they will release all the news at the right time it will come when
they are ready not before not later so i'm pretty calm i had i have a few shorts running i'm currently
short on maker rune and caspa and i think
those are doing well uh my spotbacks some of my spotbacks are currently bleeding but that's
not against my hard time frame plan so you know i'm pretty all right today and we'll see
great stuff great opening statement brother you know i'm taking a look at uh bnb right now man and
it's currently uh retesting that price level about 205 206 207 that it hit during that space that we had a
a couple of weeks ago where we pretty much experienced a uh what was it a 15 percentage um
dip on uh on btc while all split down you know 30 35 if you remember that space
and you know i'm sort of wondering man like if bnb breaks that level what does that mean for some of
of these alts and you know there are when i'm saying alts i mean like you know centralized exchange
alts i know on chain tends to kind of be its own market but man look at look looking at some of these
alts right um you know these winners from the last cycle right like you know your your phantoms your
avaxes and all that stuff like they're actually making um new year date lows and those are done
and they're just profusely bleeding against um bitcoin and you know i i know a few seconds ago i said
the on-chain market's kind of different but you know what happens to those on-chain alts once these uh
once these uh centralized exchange alts bleed because you know bitcoin sneezes and goes to
23k right maybe quickly go ahead go ahead i think you have great points and i wanna jump right
there because i would lose my thought so i think great example is for example pair right if you look
at it it's a centralized exchange coin uh and it's actually a pretty decent project in my opinion but
what i wanna talk about is that it's been going sideways literally between like the
five dollars to three dollars range since may 22 and that's like you know longer than its entire history
and yeah obviously we can like sweep the um all-time lows of it but it may be like a quick sweep
similar to covet maybe it's due to bnb you know dropping right now uh totally possible but i like i don't
see the the market overall that bad you know we need to we really need to appreciate the time that some of
these alts has been accumulating you know it's been literally you know nearly like it's been like 400
days or something like that i i cannot tell right now but it's been really long and that's exactly
how we bottomed in the past cycle and it's just just so unlikely that these alts after such a long
accumulation would just you know that like start bleeding again like this is not a rig accumulation of a
bear market in my opinion but yeah there can definitely be some short-term pain with like
the binance stuff and so on maybe i i don't know but i'm just saying uh you know i wouldn't see it
like it's like it's the end of the world that's not in my opinion what people should be currently
looking at but i totally agree that for example the coins like you know um ftm as you mentioned
and avox or whatever it's pronounced and some of these they had they they had their cycle and they
will probably like do nothing you know they'll probably die let's put it that way slow slow death
over the next years similar to what eos has done and all these others and new coins will rise new
cycle will happen and you know the psychology will be the same and then if we couple what max was saying
earlier with the institutions then yeah you know
yeah uh i i know um i know a few individuals that have also outlined like you know the 400 day mark
for some alts um i know matic is one that like bottomed out like a little over 400 days ago it bottomed
out at 31 cents um i'm just i'm just looking at this like ftx sale and kind of wondering like at the
very least there could be um a double bottom right but you know when you mentioned some of those older
assets right like your eos is your neos and all that stuff one thing that i noticed is that you know
something like neo right was uh was a was a leader off of that bottom in december of 2018 it rallied from
four dollars to almost 20 bucks um in the first half of 2019 same thing with eos and some of these
other uh older all coins right they led off of the bottom but you know after that second half of 2019
where a lot of those all got crushed by bitcoin dominance they just never came back and all they
had was a macro uh lower high against their bitcoin pairing right and some of these all just never came
back right like like substratum if you remember that right they were trying to build some like
internet computer firewall um really weird times the 2017 market man they tried building everything
on the blockchain man and you know an interesting data point that i noticed is that we didn't bottom in
in in late 2018 until a lot of those all coins broke their 2017 um summer support and i'm kind of
comparing that uh with some of these all ones that are pretty much near pretty much at at live support
on their uh summer 2021 um lows and i kind of think that once that breaks um i think we're back i think at
that point man like you could probably start dollar cost averaging very slowly man um but just noticing
that some of those assets will just never come back man so myself man i'll be looking for some of these
like newer fresher charts man i kind of think a lot of those oh ones just have a lot of like
like bag holders man and all these unlocks um that are going to be happening um 24 um are kind of
to have this slow uh toop so you know um you know a lot of these projects and doing raises in the second
half of 2020 and even the first half of 2021 and like usual vesting and unlock stuff it tends to happen
um cycle right three to four years so it's not really until like the halving where a lot of this
bleeding against the bitcoin and east mind you against bitcoin and east um can stop and that's why like
myself um for the most part this year i've really only entertained um freshmen and arts
um well some things have been complacency bounces right like um that's fun dabbling solana uh at the
start of the year um rode that for like you know just over 2x but uh speaking of slow i kind of think
that one at the very least might pull off uh what neo did the last cycle where pretty much at the very
least gives us a double top um i know eos did a double top as well same thing with litecoin same thing
with monero so at the very least i think something like soul you know where it still has some
development um some hype and community um i think at the very least something like that survives um
but we'll see man we'll see brother but you have your hand up man what's going on brother yeah i just
wanted to follow up because you you pointed some good stuff uh for example you know if you look at uh
once again i think sol is actually uh it makes sense that it's gonna run this cycle it's actually
outperforming the market right now as we speak and i i think it just makes sense that this is gonna be
probably the one that outperforms next cycle like one of the top coins from the past one but the rest
will probably just you know die because it's always like it's been even in the previous cycle where um
like way back you know and in in the early days and it's always these new coins that gets to top 10
then slowly bleed and there is always one outperformer next one so in the past one for example it was
cardano but i think cardano is done this cycle and uh i think the outperformer this one is going to be
soul and if but what is interesting if you look at avax for example it it's been bleeding on the weekly
candle with maybe the devop cells as you mentioned it's been bleeding for nine weeks straight and it
has only happened once in history and that was prior to the you know may june 2022 uh sell-off the major
sell-off in the crypto where where the bull run ended and bear market came so uh and you mentioned
some of these life supports so for example avax just broken the july 2021 the equal lows double double
bottom right a major major level in the market and i'm not saying it's gonna really exactly from here
but i'm saying like some of major life supports been broken i i don't think avax is like the coin to
hold for next cycle again but i'm looking at it at the like from the broader market perspective and
thinking how oversold and and just depressed the market is right now and and i i actually think you
know it's gonna end rather sooner than later this whole death depression phase but i i wouldn't be
investing as max was saying i wouldn't be investing just because i think it's gonna end that doesn't
mean i wouldn't be investing in some of these tokens like avax for example you know right now i still
think that btc is uh the best bet obviously and then you know you look for the outperformers you look
for the new tokens or or just at at least those ones that have been uh that have been bought and doing
better than the rest of the market during for example this so yeah
yeah great points man great points um i'm excited man honestly uh for 2024 2025 at this point it's more
along the lines of uh you know just as you and max said um survive the chop right survive the chop and
recognize what kind of market participant you are um and you know i'm not uh a day trader like some of
you guys on here i'm more of a of a swing trader and i like i i like easy mode man um i i'm very much
a beneficiary of zerp um and and qe and i think that comes back in 2025 uh for at least two or three
quarters um probably first half going into the second half i think i think uh like q2 to q4 of
2025 we'll be back um at zerp and qe but uh we'll see what the market does right leading up until that
point i know we have uh some of our other speaker panels here um we'll go on over uh to drake drake
what's going on brother how are you man great to have you up here bro and uh it's been a while man
been a little over a week yeah it's been a bit um touching grass a little bit now we just had a
big rehab going on and dealing with that garbage but um yeah i mean nothing really changed in the
market um i mean just trying to i think these are the best times to at least stay engaged um i mean
especially if you have no crypto exposure in my opinion i think this is one of those times where you
at least start to nibble and at least look at what's going on out there if you already have
crypto exposure i mean it's it's like one of those things we're right on support i wouldn't be that type
of guy who's like yeah let's double down if you already have some exposure just wait to see what
the market does if it goes up great at least you have some and if it goes down you can use that to
nibble some more um i mean just overall i think this is just going to be an accumulation year
for at least the rest of 2023 i've only experienced i got in previous bear market and i remember seeing
the run-up from it was like i don't know 6k or something or 5k bitcoin to about 10k and then it
went right into the happening and then we had the uh 2020 or yeah 2020 scare and we dropped down to like
3k um the reason i'd point that out and say that it's like nobody knows exactly what the market's
going to do regardless of if it's going into the happening you just have to position yourself
accordingly to where you always have a stack that you can buy the dips and you also have crypto
exposure that way you aren't left with your pants down another thing just moonshots that's what crypto
does um there's going to be an announcement and eventually it's going to be like oh yeah um everyone's
buying bitcoin it it's it's going to be the same junk just like it was uh in the last bull run to
where i think it was trading at like 8k or 7k at the time we had the paypal announcement or tesla
announcement i can't even remember what it was and we just we just went straight up like in a matter of
two weeks that was that was the paypal yeah yeah yeah that's what i'm saying it's like things like
that like it's when it happens it's just going to be like what the snap you miss it um here's an
example uh cannabis uh cgc for example is up a 5x in a matter of a week two weeks just because there's
rumors that there's going to be uh that it's going to be um the cannabis law is going to be passed
in the u.s where it's okay like just dumb stuff like not dumb but you know what i mean just stuff
like that that just comes out and not having any exposure is just you're going to be salty about it
that's all i'm saying um i'm not saying it's not going to go down from here i'm just saying like just
weigh in the risk to reward and weigh how long you're looking to be in the market if you're
young i mean you can expect volatility and you should be able to stomach that downside if you
can't well i mean either a get a better job or b just make some more money somehow um that's that's
how i play it drake it's all about the pain that you can take man so my question to you is what kind
of pain do you like to tolerate do you like to take the pain of opportunity cost take the pain
of selling too early or take the pain of not selling uh the exact top well i i can i can say
one thing it kind of stinks uh the pain but i i've taken some serious pain i think the the biggest pain
would be though just looking back at it all um would either be a mix of not taking as much as i should
have off the table or um not investing enough before the run-up i think that those would be
the biggest things because like it was it was it wasn't scaled it was um trying to think of the word
like when i was investing in the bear i didn't understand crypto fully and i would throw like a
couple hundred dollars at something and some of those different plays i threw it at those ended up
doing like 100 200 thousand x's and not 200 000 but like 100 x 200 x and a thousand x and i i just
wish i would have thrown more at it i didn't scale up the amount i was throwing into it until the bull run
came and when that came that was that's probably the worst time to scale into it and throw out larger
amounts because why well it's basically peak euphoria and at that point it's basically right at the top
um so i think just looking back would be to uh have into perspective that you want to scale up your
dollar cost average or scale up your buys as it goes lower so increase the amount you deposit or invest
and as it goes higher decrease the amount you invest so come do the complete opposite of what your
your brain tells you to do again in bull run and euphoria mode it's like hey i want to go all in
and throw everything at it don't do that in fact like scale it down do less you'll thank yourself later
and then and and and bear mode when everything's like oh it's going to zero invest some but just
like if if you're thinking oh hey i want to throw 500 bucks at this or if you're thinking i'm never touching
this well throw 500 bucks at it instead of never touching it and then the opposite like in a bull
run you're like oh dude this is awesome i'm gonna throw 10 grand at it for like three grand at it two
grand and then you'll thank yourself later i see uh you posted about uh banana bot well bro the banana
coin look i did not buy it i was touching grass so i didn't even know what happened with it
um but yeah i feel bad for some of those people and i know how that rolls it's not fun so did it
actually uh go like to zero like did it actually run i think what the issue was just looking through
it was it's a tax token and they had an issue with their taxes it wasn't taxing properly and i think
they had a bunch of um early not early but they had a bunch of influencers that had a large allocation
ended up wanting to take profits you know how it goes and you had a situation like that and they
decided to pull the liquidity and i guess airdrop a new token or something i don't know there's there's
a lot of fun around it um they are going to be airdropping some of the holders at this point it's
like it's not going to be worth anything um there's so much fun around it and everyone's like yeah forget
that junk as soon as the airdrop that token it'll dump to zero because people just want out
yeah yeah failed uh failed failed launches that lead into airdrops
eventually um basically go back to the main which is nothing honestly i mean what can you expect the
stinking token is called banana i mean you gotta love it man you gotta love it brother um knock i i
know uh you put out a tweet i'm going through your feed i can't find it but you were saying something
on the along the lines of uh during a bull you want to follow x people and during a bear you want
to follow a higher time frame veterans or something like that brother yeah i think it's a paraphrase what
somebody else said basically in a bull market you want to follow your three dumbest friends
right preferably you know preferably people who are kind of newbies um who are kind of new to crypto
just found the space um ideally people who you know have like a low-paid job work in a fast food
place or i don't know whatever like people who are just kind of a little bit ngmi um you follow them
and you just copy trade them because those those types of people they're going to make the most
money in a bull market because the way a bull market works is it's just basically like crypto
founders following in like a whole bunch of lemmings right so you want to copy trade them
and then you basically use your experience to tell when you know it really does hit max euphoria
and then you scale out um another good place to get out actually is the complacency shoulder because
most bull markets will have a complacency shoulder and it's pretty once you have some experience
pretty obvious and in a bear market you want to follow the veterans right i think we're in a bear
market um you know the probably the the strongest veteran that i can see is actually donald uh ben
cone's pretty good as well but basically donald has kind of looked at this chart and he's not buying
here he basically he's basically said what i've said which is and what max said as well
which is you can buy around 20k and if that 18k support the support that we had before
the ftx dump okay if that support fails i don't think the 15k one is going to hold
so basically you buy 20k you buy 19k if 18k fails you just get the
the fuck out of the market and wait for 13 or 11
jeez quite quite the i think i think it's more likely man i think it's more likely that 18 holds
i think that is looking like the more likely option but we'll have to see right
man people want to talk about max pain for some that would be max pain but of course that's relative
uh can i see you have your hand up man what's going on brother then we'll pass it on over uh to me
what's up guys
uh i'll just
i'll just try to provide some that and just speak on myself um
naka we are in the same boat i've had 13.8 to 12.6 for a long time um
um and i've been trading long enough to be patient or confident in my own higher time frame
levels uh i posted charts during 2020 21 of us going back to 18.6 i was broke when we got back there so
i didn't buy uh but i've just just been following my plan i've been working uh and trading and just
doing what i've encouraged other people to do during this time which is to to increase income and have
drive tighter on the side i'm i hit some some uh milestones today so i'm about
i would say about six weeks away from being full-time trader so i've been working on
funded accounts and just making usd so my strategy is to because i've already been a trader and i know
what i can do i i'm my strategy is to to get three months worth of bills cashed out
and then to to go back to full-time trading from there i'm confident that
each month i can at least make another month's worth of bills and so
that is my strategy i'm if i but i look at crypto specifically so outside of just like overall
you know financial planning um if i take a monthly chart and then a weekly chart and i
pretend that they're a five minute chart because i i'm i'm a lower time frame trader i'm like i when
we're talking about macro or direction um i trade the one minute right now on the nasdaq and the dow
my trades last for minutes at a time so i'm not here to to be super predictive but if i if i look at
higher time frames as if they're lower time frames um i've seen this type of structure on bitcoin's
monthly and weekly before on like a five minute or a one minute chart and if i were trying to scalp
this as if it were a one minute or a five minute i'm i'm placing bids below the load and so if i'm
treating it that way um then i'm just i'm just going to be patient um the other thing and i've said
this before is i i would rather buy momentum in crypto rather than like stab the low i put this
tweet up in the in the space so going off of bit stamp which is spot you see in each cycle um
there's some violent move off the lows it pierces some type of bear market high which is a major high
and then at some point in each cycle there is a a violent deleveraging move back into previous
structure that gets bought up so imagine like i'm totally wrong and we're not going below whatever 20k
cool we spike up to 40 each cycle has given me proof that it would be likely to retest that 32 area even
for like a fucking day whatever momentum to the upside i miss the low i buy my spot and then the
most important thing to me is that my bills and all the money that i need to live on
is already cashed out whatever i'm trading with i can take the appropriate risk in the market but i'm
not worried about life outside of that um so yeah that's really just it um no real opinion on
market direction just uh following the plan and uh doing my thing a quickie for you were you trading
bitcoin back in 2020 2019 2016 i started do you remember when bitcoin was like like i was just
talking about earlier in this space there was no pullback it went straight from like 8k 7k all the
way to 30 and then i kept going i have because i had money then and i gambled it and lost later on but i
have receipts of buying uh 3 400 when we retested that um i bought spot with my stimmy check at six oh
no i'm not saying i'm not saying it didn't go lower what i'm saying is when it took off it didn't come
back like it never retrained i think i think he's i think i think i think what kane i think what kane is
referring to is uh during the pre-halving years right um right before okay yeah yeah so like right
before the pre-halving year um literally in q4 that's that's when it's always happened either in q4
early q1 uh the market bottoms and then it starts its pre-halving year and then um typically the second
half of that year right usually uh in late q3 uh early q4 there tends to be uh a repricing where you
kind of like re-test um that accumulation zone so for a bit gotcha right after that yeah no no no no
no like like like like like about six months five months out um from the halving right and that did
happen in 2019 where you know we hit 14k near 14k and june of 2019 had a double top in july of 2019 and
then um in november we we basically corrected from just under 11k to 6500 and then the covet event that
was an anomaly bro i'm not i'm not expecting that um at all but i guess you can see the confluence right
between 2019 um and uh and 2023 is pretty striking right you had a double top um on the weekly and
then pretty much like that basket of defy right um at that time period they all started correcting
hard in september and october and that's what we're seeing right now right so you know maybe this cycle
they run they run the 2020 2021 um the 2019 through 2021 seasonality and uh kind of the same price
action right so who knows man i think that's what kane um was referring to and um yeah okay yeah no that
that makes that makes a little more sense
yeah i was gonna say another important difference between that time in 2019 and when we pumped hard
in 2020 um was in 2020 um was in 2020 you know a lot of people don't look at the chart of stable coins
but the the stable coin chart took off like an express train right i mean it's it's it's absolutely
ridiculous that the stable coins in uh on in april 2019 right going from there up until um the top
was a six thousand percent increase in the stable coin supply six thousand percent i think that was
mainly because of the introduction of blue coin though usdc circle and the partnership with coinbase
because i remember that like all of them went up not just not just usdc in fact most of that increase
was usd t most of it was tether going up well i don't know looking back at it into perspective
though i think overall usdc had percentage-wise more gains well yeah because it started off like
trivially small right if you start from zero
yeah but most of most of the overall gain in stable cap was was tether right that the the meat
the meat of the move was tether and it was a six thousand percent increase that started in april 2019
and it never stopped right and we kind of like plateaued a little bit from july 2019 to december
2019 there was like a plateau briefly but then after you know to 7 2019 stable coins just kept
going up and up and up and up and up um what was the peak tether did it reach like over 100 at one
point 100 uh i don't know i don't know the i i think it's so the the overall market peak in
stable coins is like 180 uh billion i think um i was just meaning specifically tether i think usdc
at its peak was like 65 bill i couldn't remember i'm i'm not a hundred percent sure but that but
that kind of figure sounds right but the key is like you know that's it was it was 60 times lower
in april 2019 than what it was at the top all right it's a six thousand percent move is 60x so
you might think well bitcoin exploded from nowhere but didn't really right like the the stable cap just
just just just kept going up and up and up and when the stable cap goes up the risk assets end up
bottomed on their pair with the stable cap and then then that's when the moon happens but it just like
if you just look at the stable cap right now it's just been a downtrend since uh may 2022 it's just
been a consistent downtrend um so i feel absolutely no phone i don't want to touch any of this risk asset
shit it is going to goblin town yeah i'm gonna i'm gonna butt in and clarify myself all all of my
trading and or investment decisions are made purely off of a chart and you can look at three cycles
via that bit stamp chart and see regardless of the narrative or the maturity of the asset like
the the thing still happens like make up an event like we go up we break a bear market high a considerable
one we go higher and then something happens and we knife back down okay and then we go back up there's
some momentum there again i'm i'm fine to miss you know 50 percent but know that once i buy i'm
guaranteed appreciation that's my style overall and until then nothing really changes i just i make more
money the more most important thing to me is bills but irl is paid for so when it comes into whatever
point in the cycle it is i can come into the market correctly i don't need it to go up so i can cash
out and pay bills i don't need to sell to pay bills i'm just going off of what i've learned from cycles
and my own mistakes like it's most important to have the money on the side ready to go so that when it's
time to deploy into the market play in the market um that i can do that without any concern about
what's outside of it um and i know a lot of stuff evolves and there's all these moving pieces
i have found for myself that keeping a simple process has aided me the best so really just
looking at a chart and trusting the intuition that i have learned over years of trading and uh yeah
that's it just just just for the sake of time uh we'll get to the other people here uh may i know
you've been waiting for a while then we'll go on over uh to josh and then uh we'll close out kind
of want to save uh some of the energy here for um our spaces on tuesday and wednesday regarding cpi and
all that stuff so mayor what's going on brother what have you got for us great to have you on again
hey wabi uh enjoying the conversation um i i just looking at the title again uh bitcoin being crushed by
the dollar it's like i gotta check the dyx or dxy and i'm like oh man it's back above like 104
it's like i gotta pay more attention but anyways i think bitcoin below 22k would would be a gift
i would love for it to go back down i would love to accumulate more below 20k and just a question for
the panel real quick is you know we do have the happening coming up next year but it's also an election
year so what what what if any is anyone paying attention to the fact that it's an election year
next year i mean i know we got the fed the fed rate is at 5.5 right now is the fed the fed looks
like they're going to pause do you think the election is going to play anything into this
uh i i'll i'll i'll give my thoughts and then we'll go on over uh we'll pass it over to josh i know
he pays attention to that stuff but i'll start off with myself i think i think um there'll be
cutting uh into the election but i think that'll cause a dump um and yeah that that's that's that
that's pretty much it um from me man and yeah second half of uh 2024 they'll start cutting and if you go
ahead and take a look um at 2020 um you know in q3 when btc had peaked uh at 12k uh we pretty much
retraced all the way back down to um where we were the day of the having which was right around like
98 97 9900 around there um and i think that's going to coincide with uh the fed cutting rates and um you
know the current state of things isn't really looking um the best i'm sure 2024 is going to be
just as wild as 2020 so um those are my thoughts but i still think we we rally into the having um
as we as we always do man um especially especially um some of the newer alts that are going to come out
uh in late q4 uh and q1 of uh of next year man but um yeah josh if you want to go ahead man good to
have you up here bro and i hope you're doing well brother yeah thanks man been in uh it's been
errands all day man my wife's got me uh fixing a shower head that i have no idea how to fix so
learning that stuff as a plumber you know it's pretty cool but uh yeah going into the election
talk is uh you know the election comes definitely well after the bitcoin having uh you know you're
gonna have the votes and everything going through uh late next year uh and ultimately we're just like
you know wait is that am i am i off am i no i i i can't i can't hear you no yeah i think you're
right because what the happening is going to be in april and the election's not till november
thank you yeah no no i was broken on dude time's going by too quick i was like wait are we already
at 24 it's been a long day so i've been walking in the heat all day uh but yeah no so definitely
yeah the the presidential election is not coming until after and what i would pay attention to out
of the election isn't necessarily the president uh it's going to be the elected officials that right
now are fighting between congress and the federal reserve i think you have uh four bills right
now that are trying to get pushed through uh for stable coins and just crypto security you
now have uh you know multiple governments and biden actually looking to implement frameworks
around crypto regulation i think by like 2027 and so you have about five different moving parts right
now and so what i'm focused on is primarily what the federal reserve is doing because obviously
they're impacting the value of the dollar primarily with their interest rates and you guys all know it
pretty much was like watching the nba finals every time jerome powell went on the boards were like yo
this is gonna be bearish this is gonna be bullish uh just waiting for him to see what he says but
they had a huge moment they're fighting congress right now with that letter 47 and the new supervisory
board from the federal reserve themselves and they're stepping on congress's toes so what i would
really just focus on in the next six months in terms of elections would be just which people are being put
into power and ultimately which people are bullish on crypto and not bullish on crypto because that's
going to tell us one of two things it's going to tell us if obviously it's favoring d5 or if it's going
to be favoring uh centralized uh digital deposits and stable coins issued by national banks and if you get
obviously the national banks and the digital deposits that's going to be bearish on a lot of your
d5 protocols because more or less you're probably gonna have regulation that's pushing kyc amls and
uh you know every single on-ramp where you go to buy crypto is essentially going to be tracked so
those would i be primary watching but i agree with wabi in the sense that uh again the bitcoin
having is well before that so if we do get a spot etf i think that all feeds right into the bitcoin
having and you'll probably see some bullish price action uh but the other thing i would watch for
though in this next cycle is we just had a huge update with bitcoin today guys uh paypal's founder
trying to integrate bitcoin for global payments uh i don't think a lot of people in the
industry realize what web 5 is which is what jack dorsey is building uh and the whole like backing
of digital identities and i know dakamoto is gonna i knew he's gonna raise his hand right here
uh but i'm definitely just watching out for like the adoption of bitcoin i think we're gonna see more
transaction volume and activity developed over the next year and we've been seeing that progression so
either way i'm long-term bullish short-term i mean it's kind of just hope for the best and if i
see 19 000 bitcoin i'm gonna be looking to accumulate that's where i'll stop yeah web 5 um
i think jack should make a twitter space on that man i think 2024 um is going to be very reminiscent of
2020 where you guys remember 2020 2021 uh some asset prices would react based off of tweets i kind of
think that's how spaces are going to be um next year i i think once you start having certain people in
spaces and speaking about you know assets because i kind of think i think crypto is going to be a huge
um discussion point in the election and i think that's gonna create a lot of volatility man and i
think like the only person that's not going to like really be speaking about crypto is a biden
administration but they pretty much already have one foot out the door not to make this like a political
discussion but um you know markets are very very very political and funny enough man there was some
speculation that maybe gcr uh is vivek but who knows man who knows but not you wanted to say something
brother yeah i mean just just on the idea of like paypal saying they're going to use bitcoin for global
payments i mean i have absolutely no confidence that that's ever going to happen i don't think
bitcoin is useful as a payment network um but you know bitcoin is a store of value right it's like
digital gold um it doesn't have the tps to do uh payments it doesn't network it does but but it
doesn't but lightning network isn't bitcoin lightning network introduces centralization
you know and and even if you do have lightning bitcoin mainnet still doesn't have enough
transactions for everyone in the world to use lightning like to just open a channel right that
if you just count the number of people in the world and the number of total transactions that can
happen on bitcoin in a year it's not enough right yeah that's essentially what web 5 offers but you're
you're 100 right right right but but but i mean like this is just a fucking disaster right like
you know why complicate things bitcoin is not suitable for payments who's going to get payments
maybe ethereum maybe you know the ethereum l2s because the ethereum l2s do have virtually infinite
numbers of cheap tps right um maybe solana or avax or craptos or any of these other
you know newfangled uh chains uh but it's not going to be bitcoin right bitcoin has i mean it's
it's speculation but the web 5 and like lightning network these do offer solutions for bitcoin being
able to be transferred across global revenue systems in a pretty quick manner uh i mean it's
it's the same you know if we talk about centralization at the end of the day like
there's going to be centralization to a certain extent with any payment processor because not everybody's
going to be running you know wanting to run a node from their phone if they're using a social
media platform or etc not even if that's possible i don't think we have the technology for that
so it's like you know you have the xrp army saying that they're going to be the one only swift
payment system it's like okay there's still a form of centralization to their ecosystem you have
chris larson literally driving around on a two million dollar porsche that was paid for by
obviously xrp holders but that's a whole other topic you know so with all these layer twos though i think
i'm not saying they're going to go away at all like that's i'm not a bitcoin maxi whatsoever uh
but i think a lot of them are really just vc like cash grabs that are putting you know just
utility on tokens that aren't the quickest aren't the fastest aren't the most scalable i mean how many
payment processors are there now or payment providers you have xdc xlm uh now you have about
a thousand national bank stable coins that are probably going to be issued i think the whole space
is just chaotic to be honest guys yeah guys we we are approaching uh that two hour mark so it as
as interesting and exciting as as this discussion is um let's go ahead and try to save it for tomorrow
or for wednesday um i'll run that space on a more multi-hour time frame as i usually do uh we're going
to cut it right here at two hours i know usually these spaces tend to go on for three four five
sometimes six hours um but just just out of uh just out of time's sake um i'll i'll manage up a
mega space man either for tuesday or wednesday but we'll run spaces tomorrow regardless man so
i want to thank you all for participating josh drake naka mayor uh max tucker um matt who was on
here for a while and everyone else who participated shout out to you guys and you guys in the audience for
for supporting us here and uh most and foremost i want to give a huge shout out to the official
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thank you
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