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Market Talk: #bitcoin ETF APPROVED - new all time highs in q1?
Recorded: Jan. 10, 2024 Duration: 2:00:10Space Recording
Full Transcription
The ETF was approved, was taken down.
It's quite the clown show, really, man.
You know, actually, I'm happy that it happened yesterday in a way.
It might sound a bit, maybe, I don't want to say cruel, but 1 billion of leverage trades
were liquidated yesterday.
So maybe that was just nature healing before we can have like a clean approval, you know.
Maybe that was just a blessing in disguise.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I'm noticing that all coins are actually rallying harder than Bitcoin, right?
I think that was something that we touched upon in the space yesterday, that right when this
thing gets approved, that's the bottom for the ETH ecosystem against BTC.
And, you know, we're seeing, you know, we're seeing optimism and, you know, we're seeing optimism and arbitram rally.
I'll bring up Tiger as well.
This is going to be a freeform space, so I'll let a bunch of you guys, if you want to come request to speak, just click that button.
I'll bring you up.
It's not really going to be as formal as we usually do it, right?
I know today's a pretty, it's actually more significant than yesterday, right?
Because yesterday was just a tweet, but, you know, this time, this time, right?
I'll go ahead and bring DBC up.
This time, it's actually, like, you know, full PDF and all that stuff, right?
Like, it's actual, like, government paper that's talking about this stuff.
So, you know, I'm really excited, man.
And I think this year is simply just going to be an echo bubble of last year.
And I think CPI is tomorrow, right, Mr. Spread?
Do you know when CPI is exactly?
I'm pretty sure it's tomorrow.
It is, right?
Yeah, it's tomorrow before the U.S. market opens, yep.
Yeah, yeah.
And what are expectations right now?
Do we have a two-handle or no?
I don't think it's so significant what's going to happen right now,
but I don't think it's going to be a major difference.
So, it's still either it's going to be flat or it's still trending lower.
But I don't think that the inflation is anymore the hot topic right now.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
The big question...
I just think that...
Sorry, go ahead, go ahead.
The big question is, in my opinion...
You go, you go.
Yeah.
The big question, which I have, is if in March the Federal Reserve is going to extend the
BTFP program.
Because this was kind of a stealth QE, which they did.
It was not QE.
There were people much smarter than me with much more experience in financial plumbing.
But this is what, actually, banks tapped to, from small regional banks to big banks in
the United States.
And this was like a lifeline.
So, my question was to Bill, you know, we, Buffalo, and other people who are smarter than
me, even to Concoda.
But I still didn't get any answer yet.
What would be the reason for Federal Reserve to stop the BTFP program from March, because
in March they have to stop it, and not extend it, since this was actually quite good and it
was a stability lifeline to regional banks, which were suffering from the high interest
rates, and from the lower levels of credits that they were giving out.
So, why wouldn't Fed still prolong this program if this program didn't have any other undesired
effects on inflation ramping up or, you know, something else which would mess with their
current mandate and their current policy?
So, going forward, that would be a key factor for me.
And as you know, I'm pounding the table on liquidity.
So, if I see that the Federal Reserve is not prolonging the BTFP program, and they are
not reducing massively the quantitative tightening values, that would mean that the liquidity is
going to drain a little bit faster.
So, maybe I'm going to be more cautious, maybe even take some profits, but in March, until
I see liquidity ramping up.
But for now, I still think it's engine zone.
Yeah, if we take a look at last year, right, like most of the upside on majors, right, even
things like injective, they topped out in March and April, right?
Like, if you take a look at even the price action on Solana last year, right, that initial
rally started in early January from about $8, $9 all the way to $25 in mid-January, and
then it went to like $31 in early April, right?
Same thing with injective, it rallied from about $1 all the way to just under $10, and
it pretty much did nothing for eight months.
So, I think that like, I think a good majority of upside in the trending tokens that we're
seeing right now, it's probably going to happen in Q1, and, you know, probably like, probably
like a complacency shoulder in May, right?
Because usually, you know, you know, you know, the terms sell in May and go away.
I think that's going to happen, and we'll probably pump out of the summertime, man.
But either way, I'm glad this stuff is out of the way, man.
We can finally move over.
You know why I'm laughing?
Sorry to interrupt.
What's up, man?
I'm laughing because I'm looking at the SEC website, and they just, they just deleted
some, some of these, like, error 404.
They deleted their PDF for the approvals or something.
It's hilarious.
Yeah, I think Gary Genzer's probably going to jail, man.
That's being ran like a bucket shop, man.
It's truly something, man.
Yeah, what's error 404?
Isn't that like they took the page down?
I was thinking like it was a traffic issue at first, but now, what is that?
Some sort of weird manipulation, or was it a hack again?
I mean, it seems legit.
Everyone's saying it's legit, right?
Yeah, I think error 404 is that, like, the actual site is having issues right now.
So, it's probably some traffic, and they're probably going to take it down and post it
back up, right?
But this is obviously some clear market manipulation, right?
Like, I know those individuals in these three-letter agencies like to talk about, like, oh, you
know, market manipulation, you know, we need regulation and regulatory clarity, but in
TradFi, it's the same thing, right?
You guys remember Elizabeth Holmes, right?
You guys remember Bernie Madoff, right?
Like, this isn't really the first time that there's, quote-unquote, market manipulation,
right?
Crypto is just an extension of that, right?
Like, we even had Michael Saylor sell the top of MicroStrategy, and I actually think
that Saylor is going to sell some of his stack at the top of this cycle, and I know people
don't want to hear that, but, you know, wouldn't it be quite a story if, you know, someone who
basically, oh, there's Jackus right there.
Jackus, I'll send you a co-host right now.
I just sent you a co-host.
I just sent it to you, brother.
Uh, I'll send Max a co-host as well, but, you know, wouldn't it be crazy, right?
Someone like Saylor, who was deemed as a local top signal during last cycle, ends up, ends
up marking the top with the strongest signal of all, which is the sell button, right?
And, you know, in a way, him selling MicroStrategy, right?
I think it's like, I think it's like a quarter billion dollars for it.
Yeah, I think, I think, um, Saylor is about to cash in like a quarter billion dollars worth
of, uh, MSTR, right?
So it's basically somewhat of a hedge on his, uh, on his BTC position.
Um, and so I think that's going to translate over, um, to this cycle, right?
And similar, similar to Elon, right?
Elon practically sold the top of a complacency shoulder, uh, in 2021 after the Coinbase IPO,
right?
And it was to quote unquote test liquidity.
And I think Saylor is going to do the same thing, right?
So let's let the good times roll, but Jackis, what's going on, man?
Happy birthday.
Welcome back, man.
How are you?
Hey, Bobby.
Uh, can you hear me well?
Loud and clear, man.
Loud and clear.
What a day.
What a day, man.
It's, it's, uh, it's real approval day, quote unquote, real approval day.
But, um, you know, all coins are actually rallying harder.
Who could have foreseen?
Who could have foreseen, man?
Uh, I was just setting up my new phone, so I wasn't sure, uh, that everything's okay.
If there are any problems, let me know, but I hope all is fine.
Well, uh, like insane day, insane volatility, everything's moving, everything's happening.
So many news, like it's crazy out there.
Uh, where do we start, man?
I do not even know if, uh, the, the current news are valid now or not because the government,
you know, the, the, the, um, the SEC site, uh, news where the split ETF was approved is
currently down.
Like if you open the link, it says dispatch is temporarily unavailable, right?
But, uh, I've seen it myself a few minutes ago and it was there, like the news was there,
but currently it's down.
So either the server went down or...
Jack is, Jack is, I'm tired, boss.
I'm tired, boss.
You know what I mean?
I'm tired, man.
Just...
They're squeezing the orange for what it's worth, man.
They're getting that Florida orange from the, from the mangrove trees.
And they're currently testing out the Howie test.
They want to see if, uh, the SEC website is a security because over the last 24 hours,
it has been subject to market manipulation, man.
The SEC website and the SEC Twitter is acting like an ohm fork.
They're extracting yield to the upside and the downside, man, with a tweet.
Isn't that crazy, guys?
Like, if someone were to tell you in high school, like, hey, you know, in, in, in about 10 years,
you're gonna, you're, you're gonna be trading an asset class that is traded and dependent 90%
on what somebody else tweets.
Wouldn't that be something?
Yeah, yeah.
Uh, you know, it's kinda, to be honest, it's a freaking clown show.
I'm, just like Mr. Spread said, you know, I am so tired, both.
Uh, and I'm tired myself.
I was saying that, you know, like two days, three days ago, I don't remember what, what was it.
But, uh, I was saying, uh, to, to the guys here, I think it was on YouTube market chain,
I was saying, man, I just want to have it over.
It's like, can all this ETF drama just be over?
I'm so tired.
Yeah, it's, uh, yeah, hopefully it's over and we can have a normal market again, focus
on stuff that's being developed, have normal discussion.
Because lately it's just been, you know, ETF, ETF in, ETF dead, market manipulation dead,
market, you know, scam news here, scam news there.
So I really want to have it over.
Uh, but yeah, let's, let's see.
Because, uh, I actually really do not know if, uh, if like the news is finally valid.
I mean, we obviously do expect, uh, the ETF to be approved.
The only question is sort of when, but given that we have not seen any reaction, to be honest,
like, like there was a bigger reaction yesterday, right?
Then today.
So I'm actually not sure if it's finally official.
I suppose I'll.
It's official.
It's official, Jack.
I saw some other people.
I, I, no, it's official.
It's like some, some documents and it's like exactly from the filing.
Okay.
So it's back on.
I just, yeah, yeah.
I saw it being official and then the same link that I was, you know, that I shared on
my Twitter and, and others shared it as well, you know, from, from the SEC site, uh, it was
down.
It said that this page cannot be loaded or some shit and now it's back on again.
So I suppose it is official, right?
But yeah, surprising.
To be honest, surprising.
We didn't get, uh, like any reaction, to be honest.
Like once again, you know, yesterday, uh, seen a wider reaction and I did, I did expect
something bigger than this.
I mean, as I said, you know, previously, I, uh, I'm not caring that much about the, the,
the release of the news itself.
I'll pay respect to the TA price action and market structure the most as, as usual.
Right.
But I did expect like, you know, some, uh, some dark smell candle and it did not happen.
But, but what it's worse, what it's worse, man, is actually, uh, that I think the East
BTC rotation must be coming in now because like big time, because they're really like,
like, if, if the spot ETF news is truly official and I still am hesitant to believe it, man,
but if it's over, then there is really nothing holding it, uh, anymore.
Right.
Because.
I can tell you something, Jackis.
Yeah.
The flows, the, the, the flows brother.
And I think we'll also maybe have something to say.
The flows are going to be tomorrow.
So now we have the approval, but we need to see what type of flows.
Yeah.
I mean, we had the liquidation yesterday and that bullshit, which they did, SEC and Gary.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And we had the futures market being, uh, traders liquidated at $1 billion.
The, the order books were very empty.
I didn't see any market makers there today.
So tomorrow is when we're going to see the flows and the listings, which are going to
start tomorrow.
I think tomorrow we're going to see the price heading much higher than now.
In my opinion, I don't know.
I may be wrong.
Yeah.
I'm a little bit short-term bearish just because like we're at, we're still at the,
I mean, I've spoke about it before, but we're at Fibonacci levels that rejected.
I mean, it's a little different times, different times right now.
So it's hard to say, but I'm just keeping in the back of my mind that we're at Fibonacci levels
that rejected Bitcoin in the last bear market when it had that bear market rally.
And we may be beyond that, you know, phase in the market cycle where this isn't a bear
market rally, but I mean, there could be like short-term downside.
I mean, I see potential for, um, you know, a lot of exit liquidity here at this level,
even if it just drops down to like mid thirties or something, and then it goes to new highs,
you know, and then, and then, yeah, it clears a hundred K.
I mean, I'm definitely, I think it's definitely bullish that this is happening if it's legit
right now.
Um, but I, I don't know.
I wouldn't expect it if it, if it does pull back a little bit.
Um, so it's just something to keep in mind.
I wouldn't, I wouldn't be yoloing in like right now personally.
Yeah, I agree, I agree, man.
Like yoloing here is, uh, definitely not, uh, probably not a good case, but there, there,
there are a few, few points I want to mention since I have not been around for a while in
the spaces and that's, uh, you know, uh, some of you might've heard it on the market checks
that we, we, we are running, but, uh, you know, we had things need to be put in perspective
and make it as simple as possible for the normie guy.
Right.
And we had, I have to repeat 300 days accumulation sub 25 K and then another 200 days reaccumulation.
Well, we can call it 500 days accumulation sub 30 K, right?
We just had the higher timeframe breakout and then the continuation and the, in order to
have a higher timeframe pullback, right?
Like back to 30 K, you would need to see some larger distribution, like, like time wise,
right?
It's, it simply doesn't break out out of such a, such a huge energy and then immediately
does a higher timeframe pullback.
Just like you've seen, you know, these coins like Avax and so forth, right?
They have really, or Solana, they have really this much high because there has been so much
accumulated energy and they're not just, you know, straight, straight down dumping.
You, you first need to see, I either are you going to see like a, uh, liquidation cascade.
It could like, uh, take, and we had that to be honest, you know, we had that during, what
was it a few days ago, right?
Wednesday, the third, and it only caused like 10% drop that that's it.
And we've seen the funding getting completely reset and so forth.
But like the higher timeframe correction to 30 K that has to come after there has been
some longer as distribution, like it needs to be at least, you know, if, if we took, I
still say that if we took 500 days, then at minimum 120 days sideways, you know, something
think of July, 2019, you need to see that at the top, right?
Like it just simply doesn't go, uh, straight down.
And if there would be some straight down move, it would get immediately bought back.
Just like we've seen that on, uh, you know, once again on, uh, last Wednesday.
So I, I need to mention this one because it's, uh, it's really important to understand the
time aspect of markets.
So I agree with you, Jackie's I agree with Jackie's on this after 600 days of bear market
and, you know, accumulation or bear market rallies, we just went above it like 80 days
and this just doesn't fold 50% or even if it does, it's going to be bought back.
Like we just saw recently, we'll go on, man.
Nah, just letting everybody, you know, get their conversations out of the way.
Mine's going to be a little long winded, you know?
Um, I think that a lot of people like really are looking at this as, you know, not the
ideal place to buy Bitcoin could, I mean, Bitcoin can go to, it can go to 25K and get
30K and get 35K, but I'm thinking about upside more than I'm thinking about downside.
And some people may be like, well, your compound's better at, uh, you know, at lower levels, yada,
yada.
I'll just DCA, I'll DCA it all the way down.
Like, I don't, I don't care that Bitcoin go to 33K.
I don't care that Bitcoin go to 35K.
Um, and I, I think that, you know, if you're looking at these markets and you're looking
for entries, like, I think if you're waiting for some kind of, you know, substantial pullback,
uh, you're, you're kind of missing the plot of directionality here.
Um, I, I also think that at the moment, you know, Bitcoin has a good, good opportunity
to trade sideways, right?
Versus, versus just breaking out, which is okay.
That's, that's perfectly okay with me.
I think trading sideways is just as healthy as retracing.
Um, and obviously, you know, time is, is, is a capitulation factor, you know, just like,
just like pullbacks are a capitulation factor.
Um, so your price doesn't have to depreciate in big ways.
It just has to stay within a range through a certain amount of time.
And then you can tell that there's, there's appetite for higher prices and prices can rise
even from current ranges.
Uh, I think people should really only be looking at this from the 40 K to, to, to, you know,
basically 50 K range.
And yeah, I do agree.
You know, Jim, I, I do see the, the pullback.
This is why I anticipated even all the way from like 30, 30 K.
I was, I was eyeballing that flush move from, from 48.
Right.
And I think just a lot of people were trying to reach much higher and the anticipation
of the pullback here was, it was pretty obvious.
I think like, if you looked at spy, spy had a very similar move.
Spy came up and, you know, re recaptured the entire capitulation pullback, uh, significantly
lower than I thought it would go, um, on, on the pullback and then broke out again and
just chatted all the way to all time high.
And I think a lot of people are looking at Bitcoin and thinking it's going to do that
too.
And I, I just, I don't see the, the reason for it, nor, nor the appetite for it.
The market is, is very, very much in a frothy state.
And a lot of people have like, well, that's profit taking that.
It means people will profit take.
Yeah.
But it also means people will continue to accumulate.
So it's just more about buy sell pressure flows versus, uh, trying to look at it as,
you know, this has to happen as a static position or it doesn't have to happen as a static position.
And, and I would say also, um, and one thing that looks really, really strong right here,
and this is why I think Bitcoin will trade sideways right now is Ethereum.
Ethereum looks really strong.
Nobody's talking about it.
I mean, Jackis and Max have been on top of it for a while, but this is, this is where
it looks the strongest.
I'll put it that way.
Right.
This is where it looks the strongest.
It's sitting around, uh, 2,500.
I think there's just been so much attention in all other, all their sectors that people
have just been missing the diamonds in the rough, right.
As far as, uh, as far as projects go and as far as where the liquidities flows are heading.
Uh, and, and we're continuing to see builds into, uh, a lot, a lot into L1s.
And I think that's gonna, you know, branch out and ripple effect into, into higher beta
plays on those and so on and so forth.
Uh, I know today is a day about Bitcoin, but I, I just want people to understand.
And where the flows are flowing and then that liquidity flow, once it takes profit again,
it'll roll back into Bitcoin.
I think ultimately, and that's why I kind of tell the rotation versus like trying to
say, Hey, we're just going to go up from here.
And because Ethereum looks so strong, it makes me think that Bitcoin is going to trade more
sideways.
And from there, you know, that liquidity flow will flow out the alts and higher, higher,
higher beta price, probably even shit coins.
And then that, that profit taking will go right back into Bitcoin just to push Bitcoin that
much higher.
And then we'll see Bitcoin chad more.
Um, and I think it's, these, these are healthy moves versus, uh, at the moment, just
looking for retraces.
I think if people looked at 2020, uh, going into 2021, once Bitcoin got its momentum, it
was just up only every single month, you would get substantial pullbacks maybe towards the
beginning or whatnot, but it would just, you know, month after month after month, you just
green, green, green, green, green, green, all the way up.
And Bitcoin arguably has already been in a five month period of, of just uptrend.
And I know a lot of people are looking for some kind of pullback here, but there's, there's
a good, a good chance that this thing just continues to uptrend, you know, obviously it
can trade sideways here, but continues to just uptrend and people just completely in
awe and miss the entire move because they continue to look for pullbacks.
Uh, I just want to throw it out there.
It's kind of like just some food for thought, you know, when we're looking at these markets
and like, oh, well, this has to happen or that has to happen.
Nothing has to happen.
You have to look at your support resistance and respect those.
And then if, if you're violated, obviously, then you can start looking at lower prices,
but I don't even think they should be entertained until the price range has been violated, which
it hasn't on either side, by the way, it hasn't on either side.
So I think we just need to continue to watch the flows, which is the data and, you know,
let the data dictate the, dictate the price of, uh, direction for all assets.
And so as long as we remain up here, I'll continue to DCA.
If we go lower, obviously I know where the lower range of the lower of the next move is.
So I'll DCA at the lower range of that and so on and so forth.
And Bitcoin from 45 K to 40 K is the low end of the range for me.
So I think, uh, DCA in here does make sense in my opinion, uh, unless you somehow think
that, you know, the range has been violated, which I don't see right now.
Currently, I know that was a lot, but I don't know if anybody, it's all good.
Well, I'll add to that, you know, speaking of the, the constant delay of, of the ETF has
been probably the most bullish for both for BTC to really spike higher.
And now that it's approved, you know, that seems like to be like the trigger for alt right now.
That's that is out of the picture.
So like we have to keep in mind that when, uh, the gold, uh, spot ETF was, uh, applied,
right, that there have been two significant things or actually three that, uh, has kept my eye
and they are good to look for.
So first of all, the price was rallying into the spot ETF approval, right?
And obviously the timeframe and, uh, is different and price, uh, price, uh, appreciation too.
Sorry, percentage appreciation, because they are different market caps, uh, assets, right?
Uh, BTC is still very, uh, little market cap asset, uh, compared to gold, even at the time
of the approval.
So the first thing was that, uh, both gold and Bitcoin has been rallying to the spot
ETF approval second, uh, after the spot ETF approval, there wasn't an instant bump.
Actually gold, uh, was going sideways for the next 300 days.
Obviously, once again, the timeframes are different for gold because it's such an old
asset, right?
So in terms of BTC, this could be like, who knows, like maybe 100 days.
Um, I do not know, but, uh, maybe, you know, we are going to see, as you said, well, maybe
we are going to see some sideways action, maybe some even pullback.
I do not think so right now, looking at the price, right?
But, uh, but I could see that, you know, I could see some slowdown.
And third is that, uh, after that, uh, gold pause, we've seen it rally for the next 350%, right?
Over the course of next year, after that pause has been finished.
So this is a third and applying that to the current Bitcoin price.
That basically gets us to 200,000, right?
Like if I apply the same analogy that happened to gold, right?
It didn't happen right after, as I said, if there was like a 300 days period where after the gold,
after the spot ETF approval went sideways, small pullback sideways, basically.
And then continued higher.
So we could, you know, maybe we see the same thing for, uh, BTC here.
BTC takes a pause, go sideways, alt's rally in Q1, you know, seasonality with Easter,
as Max has been pointing out, is the highest in December, you know, end of December, you know,
going into new year.
Jack is, Jack is 200K for one BTC, man.
I think the question that some of us want to know is, where does that put Say Network and Celestia at, brother?
I told you, Bobby, I told you that your targets are too low.
Too low?
Too low?
Max, Max, it seems like, uh, we're going to need a new propaganda chart, brother.
75 bucks is, uh, is too low of a target, man.
Um, yeah, let, let, let Jack, let Jack is was just about to finish cooking.
Jack is finished cooking and then I'm a pop in.
Oh, actually, you know, instead of everyone cooking for 15 minutes, let, let's do a quick jump around,
you know, like in five minutes.
We have lots of, uh, speakers, so let's instead rotate, you know.
I, I, I, I will try to make notes, do not forget my thoughts, but let's go, Max.
Yeah, I'm, I'm real, um, I'm real calm as the storm rages around me, Jackis.
I think that's, uh, that, that's your line, but I'm sitting here just staring at ETH BTC,
putting in the chat of all Chad candles after being ridiculed for like the past 90 days
on how ETH is bad tech and ETH is never going to recover.
And we're going to go to an ETH BTC valuation of 0.03 and seasonality doesn't matter this time around.
And it's just like, of course it was a failed breakdown upon the, the most bullish Bitcoin news
possible.
Um, I mean, how, how beautiful, you know, like how it's just, it's, it's amazing to see.
It's amazing to see, and it makes perfect sense, right?
Like positioning before positioning before the ETF gets approved, not really in Bitcoin.
Well, I mean, I was obviously in Bitcoin as well, but positioning heavy in ETH from 1600,
knowing that it did the same thing last cycle.
And something that we were talking about at length was, yeah, 0.05 should really hold for
ETH BTC.
That is sort of where we deemed fair value to be.
But similarly to last cycle, the sentiment around ETH got so bad when it broke below,
uh, the 0.02 level.
And as soon as we saw 0.05 being pressured, we said, you know what, it's possible that
this cycle, this time around, we need to see ETH BTC go below 0.05 and look as though it's
going to break down to really create that negative sentiment.
The final straw, you know, the, the, the ETH capitulation FUD, um, and we got it, you
know, and an immediate buyback.
And now I believe we're engulfing like 10 to 10 or 11 weeks of bearish price action in
one weekly candle.
And we're starting to see ETH beta run.
And I mean, I feel like I've been a lunatic up here screaming and let me check my timeline,
literally just like bullposting Pepe.
Pepe is literally going to go.
I mean, Pepe is, is going to fucking tear guys.
I don't know how else to put it.
I'm trying, I'm screaming.
I'm trying to be polite about it.
Like, I don't know how else, how more, much more clear I can be about ETH and ETH beta
and how I'm positioned, like without literally like seeming like I should be in a mental institution.
I'm trying to be clear.
I'm trying to be helpful, but it it's starting right now, guys.
Like it's, it's starting right now off of the back of the ETF approval and predominantly
beyond that December seasonality, which, which should not be faded.
But yeah, I see Jack is with his hand up.
I'll, I'll stop monologuing there.
What's up, Jack is so good.
And yeah, I also wanted to mention that, uh, like exactly what we talked about on today's
market check, but you know, the, like really it, it seems like it, the East BTC pair is
currently like everything's fucking lining up.
We, you know, I was saying that we are 3% away from engulfing those past 10 weekly candles.
We are there right now, Mox in this afternoon, since the market check, we are already there.
We are already engulfing all those weekly candles right today.
So, and by the way, this is coming from the most oversold weekly RSI sitting on a bullish
divergence since the very cycle low that happened.
And Jack is not to cut you off, but it's the same thing that you identified with TLT.
When the sentiment got negative too, same bullish divergence.
Yeah.
And you know, I was saying that for the past weeks and yes, I was slightly early, just
like with BTC, uh, I was slightly early, but you know what happened?
You know what happened guys?
Most of the guys that kept saying for, kept screaming for lower, they kept screaming, you
know, 12K, 10K, 3K.
And guess what?
Most of them have been sidelined to this day, right?
So I'd rather be a little bit early than miss out, uh, miss it out completely.
And with, uh, you know, with the regards of BTC back in, uh, it was by the way, the same
analogy, like BTC was sitting on a most oversold weekly RSI on a bullish divergence, right?
And people kept saying like, uh, you know, doesn't matter.
The technicals doesn't matter.
Here we are going to 12K, 10K, blah, blah, blah.
And it was the thread fight guy and BTC bears making fun of Bitcoin.
And now it was Bitcoin maxis making the fun of ether.
And I, I'm just looking at the asset, trying to like, see the truth, right?
And the truth has been there.
And I find it crazy that the sentiment is always negative in the same way.
Like, how does it keep on repeating?
Where will people learn, right?
And I personally, like, I do not, I gotta be honest.
I do not care that much about ease itself, right?
I just see an opportunity to accumulate more BTC.
And I use ease as proxy for Alts and Jesus, look at what Alts are doing just now that the
ETF has been approved.
It's been like a clear signal.
Like, yeah, what ETF is there guys, get some.
I just want to comment one thing and then, uh, what we'll pass the mic around so we can
let everybody get their piece in.
But I'm kind of grateful that what happened yesterday occurred because if there was no
tweet yesterday and, you know, today marked, you know, the official tweet with the announcement
and the PDF and all that stuff, I think we would have honestly nuked to like 40 K men.
Um, and I think, you know, that tweet that Gary put out yesterday stopped any blood that
would have happened.
So, you know, truth be told, like, if you were to ask anyone last week, like, Hey, do
you think with the, uh, approval and the official documentation of the ETF going live and within
24 hours, the flows would start that prices across, uh, you know, the Bitcoin asset class,
um, would remain flat and Alts would rally, right?
People would have called you crazy because there was only two thoughts, right?
Either send eminently or crash eminently.
So I think this is the outcome that we didn't, we didn't expect this outcome, right?
With BTC being flat, but it's the outcome that we needed.
So, um, I have to personally say, thank you, uncle Gary.
Um, and yeah, thank you, uncle Gary, man.
So listen, man, I'm going to go ahead and pass it to some of the other individuals that
haven't spoken yet.
Uh, DB stocks, and then we'll go on over to tiger and then to will.
So, uh, DBC what's going on, brother?
What's up guys?
Um, yeah, I mean, like you mentioned, I'm kind of glad we got a peek under the skirt of
the ETF yesterday because we saw BTC just nuke and be manipulated to hell.
And then we saw Ethereum slowly grind up.
So, I mean, I honestly shifted like 80% of my Bitcoin into Ethereum last night and I'm pretty
darn happy I did that.
So shout out to you guys also, you know, highlighting that and, you know, I've just been following
you guys for the last month and, uh, you guys are great.
So if there's any new listeners, definitely keep an eye out on, uh, because Bitcoin, because,
uh, because Bitcoin, you know?
But, but yeah, I, I mean, uh, I, I had like a couple of bigger picture questions.
I mean, just, just in general, like, uh, so last cycle was my first cycle.
So I'm, I haven't experienced the having yet.
So I'd just be curious if you guys have a couple of two cents on the having situation.
Yeah, uh, DB, as far as I know you put a comment in the, uh, chat box, I think, you know, now
that this ETF situation is out of the way, I think now we just go back to, uh, the post
having super cycle meme, um, as always, what about you, Will?
Well, it's a post having super cycle.
No, I, I, I think if, if anything, it, it adds a lot of validity to, uh,
Yeah, sorry about that.
No, I, I think it adds like a lot more validity to, to crypto and to Bitcoin in general.
Sorry for that, guys.
Uh, so on and so forth.
And, uh, I, I think like when people look at this, man, they, they gotta be, you have
to look at this like, and, and, and I'll tell you this, look of all people out there
and all things I did, I did anticipate a flat move on Bitcoin from this.
Now, the reason for that is, is because we got an ETF does not mean that it, it's going
to validate upfront, right?
Uh, people's confidence in the market.
But I think given a cycle with an ETF, it will definitely build confidence in the market
of crypto overall.
And I, I also think it will also kind of lessen the blow of the downside of the bear markets.
I know, I know there's a lot of people out there that think there won't be bear markets.
There will always be bear markets, even bear markets in stocks.
So, I mean, those are things to always keep in mind.
Yes, that is trying to foot again, guys.
Sorry about that, guys.
Yeah, I was, I was just grabbing it.
Uh, but there's, there's always bear markets to keep in mind when you're, when you're, uh,
when you're looking at markets in general and there's always downside to be played just
like there's upside to be played.
But I think overall, like, man, this, this really changes my thought process when it comes
to like Bitcoin upside or downside.
I think that that's going to really kind of alter my, my, my overall model that I have
for Bitcoin.
Um, and you know, like I'm excited because for me, the fact that these ETFs are actually
coming to fruition means that your upside potential can be significantly higher than your, than
your previous, you know, maybe thoughts on upside potential.
So, and I think that's where, where most people miss the boat, they don't redo their models
when, when conditions change, right?
They just stick to the same conditions and say, this is, this is what's going to happen.
And this is how I got to go about it.
Well, if, if you're a true analyst or you're, you're somebody who, who truly understands the
data, always adjust your models.
When, when conditions change, you can, you can always adjust them based on hopeful or,
you know, conditions that you think can come to fruition, but until they come to fruition,
you can't really come in and be like, oh, I'm going to adjust my model based on the,
the ETF until the ETF is approved.
So I think this is really going to change the game a lot for people as far as, uh, looking
at, looking at Bitcoin.
And I think again, it's just, it's going to allow passive flows.
That's kind of another thing too.
I think that a lot of people are going to sleep on that whole factor, um, because it's
going to allow people, you know, the opportunity to add, whether it be through direct, um,
direct injection, AKA, uh, your 401k allowing you or, or non-direct, which would be basically
you, you coming to another source that maybe has exposure to black rock or blah, blah, blah,
which will give you a little bit of explode exposure to those, to those scenarios.
So I think overall it's, it's bullish, but it's, it's like stock market bullish.
And I think that's, that's where a lot of people miss the boat, right?
People are so anticipating some kind of like massive pump in a Bitcoin where, where does,
where does retail run to the second they step into crypto?
Well, I would say probably, probably an L one, bro.
That's how it's going to be.
It's going to be a layer one.
What's up guys.
I've been enjoying the conversation so far.
I haven't really heard anyone talk about the Bitcoin dominance though.
Um, it's looking, it's looking like, uh,
Yeah, I, I, I had to mute.
Someone was, uh, off mute and like, there was a ton of static.
Um, Justin, hang on, man.
Will, do you want to finish your thought?
Yeah, no, I, I was, so I was, I was just saying that as, as far as overall, you saw,
you saw the immediate move into all coins and, and L ones, right.
Um, whereas a lot of people were expecting the immediate move to specifically go into Bitcoin.
Um, and it's, it's more of the degeneracy.
And I think the market has already front ran a lot of those moves in the all coins.
Um, some of them are just now getting front run and, and that liquidity, like I said,
I've said this many, many, many times on, on this show and many others,
that liquidity will see its way back to Bitcoin, right?
So in those scenarios, you have to keep in mind,
Bitcoin for me is going to continue climbing higher based on that whole scenario by itself,
which is going to continue to pull the market up with it as far as all of crypto up with it.
And that, and again, it's, it's a rising tide effect on all ships, right?
All ships rise.
It just some rise higher than others, depending on how far they are from the, from the bed floor.
Um, so overall, like, I think this is super bullish for, for Bitcoin.
It's super bullish for crypto, but now I'm going to have to kind of readjust my top end targets.
Cause I think there's good potential that we can go a lot higher than what I anticipated for this market time.
Great, man.
Uh, Justin, you want to get your thoughts and brother?
Yeah, my, my bad.
My mic was rugged me earlier.
Um, I was connected to some headphones, but I was saying, I've been listening to this space.
It's really good space so far.
Um, I was looking at the Bitcoin dominance.
It looks like we may have hit a, uh, like lower timeframe top.
And it's super interesting cause that happened right as, um, ET, uh, ETH Bitcoin, um, bottomed yesterday.
But I wanted to hear what you guys' thoughts were cause everyone's screaming ETH is going
to, can, they can keep going up, keep going up.
But ETH Bitcoin is at a key resistance here.
I know the perfect guy right now on this very panel that can go into an in-depth, an in-depth
monologue about all things ETH BTC.
Max, why don't you go ahead and tell Justin your thoughts on, uh, the ETH BTC pair.
I understand that it's something that, uh, we hear because Bitcoin, um, you know, we like
to gather all of our resources sometimes to specifically check out where ETH BTC is going.
Yeah, yeah.
Hey, hey, Justin, happy to Wabi.
Um, for those of you that are regulars here, you just turn this off cause you've probably
heard this every day for the past 90 days.
Um, but yeah, I do think that there's a really strong case for, for ETH playing some dramatic
catch up.
I mean, one, just from, uh, just staring at the charts, it's pretty obvious that ETH has
been lagging.
We've seen a lot of things like link leading breakout.
Sol was the first to bottom against its Bitcoin and Ethereum pairs when it bottomed, uh, during
that FTX capitulation and broke under 10 bucks.
And it's pretty clear that, you know, ETH basically just broke out of a 500 plus day reaccumulation
between, let's just say 2150 and about a thousand bucks, you know, at the very, very low, but
it spent 500 plus days, 550 days, reaccumulating, chopping around, you know, it was a nice little
range to play, but we just peaked our head finally above 2150, 2200.
And we hadn't really moved up until just recently.
Uh, well, a lot of other altcoins, which were quicker to bottom against their, their Bitcoin
pairs had pretty crazy moves.
And link is my, you know, one of my favorite examples just because it went from like five
bucks to 15.
And it, it also had a 500 plus day reaccumulation range, but I guess that's point number one
is that we don't just break out of a 500 plus day reaccumulation range for ETH USD, um, and
then not really go much more than a hundred points higher.
When you spend 500 days, in my opinion, reaccumulating, um, I think it's going to go significantly
higher.
Next, um, most people don't really acknowledge this, which I'm, I'm kind of confused as to
why, but there was absolutely a fed tightening cycle basically between 20, uh, early 2018
through 2019, we had a fed pause and then interest rate cuts, um, basically because of COVID, but
it was very much so a shortened and I guess less dramatic version of what we had, uh, starting
in 2022, where we had a dramatic increase in interest rates now a fed pause and priced in
now cuts potentially in Q2 of this year.
Um, if you just look at what happened while the fed was basically wrapping up its tightening
cycle through the tail end of a pause, crypto can perform extremely well.
Now, granted, we only have one data point, so take it for what it's worth.
But I think just looking at historically how risk has performed and beta has performed during
a fed pause while we know we can, we can basically remove the, the factor of, are we going to
get more interest rate hikes?
Are they going to continue to tighten?
Is it going to put additional strain on the economy?
The answer to that is we know now, no, they're not going to.
So we have this true Goldilocks period where risk, which includes Bitcoin and ETH can perform
extremely well unencumbered by potential fed, uh, fed interest rate hikes.
And until we get materially worsening, materially worsening economic data, like the labor market
begins to roll over or something else, um, risk, which again, includes stuff like ETH,
I think can perform extremely well.
And then going into basically December seasonality, uh, December has the highest 90 and 180 day
ROI for Ethereum, um, by, by a long shot, like not even close, uh, historically the best time
to buy ETH USD has been in December for the highest three month and six month return on
investment.
And then furthermore, uh, ETH BTC has the best seasonality in December that also far and away
by almost two X to the next month, December is the best time to rotate your Bitcoin into ETH
being in December.
So those are, those are really a lot of the reasons, uh, why, and just comparing this to,
to what happened last cycle when we saw Ethereum basically lagging dramatically behind Bitcoin
as it just commenced its, its last bull market, we saw the ETH BTC valuation dip below 0.02.
And it was a very comparable sentiment.
And I remember trading through that last cycle and being very heavy Ethereum.
And I, I noted to myself like, okay, you know, I've been here before.
I've seen the FUD, I've seen the memes, I've seen all the quote unquote ETH killers, you know,
with cheaper fees and, and, you know, faster transactions, you know, more transactions per
block, the whole thing.
I've seen all of this before.
I recognize capitulation and overly bearish sentiment.
So, you know, why am I still bullish ETH here?
You know, yes, locally, you could be correct that ETH BTC is coming into potentially sticky
area on like the hourly timeframes.
But if you pull up the weekly chart and you look at this thing and you recognize that we
basically just had a swing fail breakdown, uh, of 0.05 with a really strong reclaim of higher
timeframe support, I would argue that the weekly timeframe is going to take a lot of precedence from
the hourly, especially given the gravity and the timing of this move.
So I think that what we saw yesterday, that the strong deviation below 0.05 on the ETH BTC
pair can be chalked up to really just a deviation, deep fucking value, well below, you know, fair
value on the back of, or I guess on the eve of the Bitcoin spot ETFs being approved.
And I was comparing this yesterday on our YouTube show.
Um, I was viewing the price action yesterday and I didn't know it was going to wrap up,
you know, this quickly and immediately spring back.
Um, I was confident we wouldn't go much lower.
Um, but I, I noted this yesterday and I said, look, I think that this is probably going to,
like, we are very, very close to a bottom and basically we got exactly what we needed to.
So all of, all of that considered, um, we had a high timeframe, weekly swing fail.
ETH is really just starting to break out. And it's my opinion that, you know, ETH is, is more or
less comparable to buying like a 32 to 35 K Bitcoin right here. So it's been my base case that ETH will
probably pressure 3,500 to 4,000, given that it broke out of a, you know, 500 plus day reaccumulation
range. And we have all of the, the, the, the tailwinds that I mentioned. So I definitely went
on for a while there, but it's, it's something that, I mean, ETH has been a big part of my portfolio
for like three months now. Um, and I, I noted up here numerous times, like I recognize I'm maybe
60 to 90 days early, but I'd rather position aggressively in a 16 to $1,700 ETH, which is where I did,
um, and be ahead of this thing so that when the rotation happens and the liquidity vacuum that we
know ETH typically is when it starts to move happens, I'm positioned well in advance. And I
don't really have to, I don't have to get caught up in the lower timeframes wondering if I'm buying
a local top and I have to sit in it. I don't really mind, but yeah, anyways, those are just some
thoughts. I know I went on for a while, but I think that, I think that the ETH move is really just
getting started. And now I'm focused on chasing ETH, ETH beta, because there's going to be the
on-chain rotation into ERC20 tokens and, you know, ERC20 shit coins, uh, that are going to go
fucking crazy. So I'm pretty excited about this ETH move. And truthfully, I think it's just getting
started. I think there's a very, very low probability that the lows get tested again.
I agree. No, I agree. I, I own more ETH than I have in like two years and I, I, I'm the same. Like,
I didn't expect, I didn't expect ETH to, to, uh, be up 7% today and with Bitcoin's down 2%, but, um,
risk assets, I, I'm super, super bullish on ETH. And I think we should all be rooting for ETH too,
because it's good for our altcoins as well, you know, and the feds already come out and pivoted
and basically said that they're not going to, um, hike rates anymore, which is, which is really good
for this market. And I think that we have the Bitcoin halving, um, coming up, which is obviously
another key factor for people to, to look into, but, um, Ethereum is finally catching a bid, which
is, which is really good. And I think a lot of speculation now goes into Ethereum when that ETF
is going to be approved because we've, um, we've already seen, you know, so many people
all hyped on the Bitcoin, um, ETF and all attention has been there. And I didn't expect ETH to, to,
I, I, I did, uh, expect ETH to obviously move up a lot higher, but I didn't expect it to move up this
fast. Um, but it, it looks like I agree, Max, I think it's really good for our, um, on chain bags. And
I think it's good for us to root for Ethereum, you know?
Yeah. What do you mean this fast? It's been lagging so much. Let it finally, let it finally,
let it finally, uh, shoot for the start, man. I know what you mean. I'm just joking, right?
Yeah. We, we, we want ETH to do well, for sure. Like I know everybody wants their,
you know, their L1 of choice to kick ETH's butt and steal market share. And that can exist too.
Both of those can be realities, but you definitely want ETH to do well. Um,
Um, I mean, it's just, it's just got a lot to go and it's got a lot to give. And I don't really
think that, I don't think that you're going to see ETH give the returns that something like Solana
will this cycle, but I, I just think it's Ethereum is in my opinion, it's, it's something that shouldn't
be, it shouldn't be overlooked and you shouldn't, you should almost kind of left curve it and just
recognize that basically every cycle rotating into Ethereum, the December before a Bitcoin
having has aged very well. And now granted, we only have a couple of data points, but a lot of
these arguments that, that people throw out all the time about ETH as well. It's, it's slow and the
transaction, the transaction fees are so expensive and I don't want to ape shit coins on Ethereum
because I'm going to have to pay $500 in gas to get out of my position. Just wait, mark my words.
Somebody saved it. Well, we saved the recording, but remember what I say, you can clip this later.
That sentiment will completely 180. As soon as Ethereum is pushing 3000, everybody's going to be
aping shit coins on ETH. And they're going to be like, gas is so expensive. Oh my gosh,
it's $500 to exit my position. And they're going to, they're going to frame it as bullish rather than
something bearish. They're going to go, this is so bullish because nobody will sell because they don't
want to pay the gas. Just wait. That's my favorite. That happened last cycle too. I heard the same
exact arguments. Oh, I'm just going to ape on all these new L ones that are coming out.
Look at this. I can swap in five, you know, in, in five milliseconds for five cents. Look at how
great this is. Just wait. It's, it's bullish expensive. Okay. It's, it's bullish illiquidity.
Illiquidity is bullish. Don't let them tell you otherwise. I promise you're going to hear it. And it's true.
I just want to add, I think, I think a lot of people, they get lost in the sauce. They want
to hear about Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcoin, but it's, it's really about performance, performance,
performance. That's, that's, that's really what it's about. Right. So when you're looking at these
markets and you're sitting here from a performance standpoint and you're looking and you're like,
where can I find value? There, there's a lot of places to find value. Again, some of it comes back
to downside. So you have to look at your downside potential in Bitcoin. It's a lot worse.
And Ethereum, you know, it can be a lot better. I mean, not, not a lot worse. Sorry. It's a lot
better. And then Ethereum, it can be a little bit better. Right. And then everything else is
completely getting smoked. I mean, I, I watched things from like $5 go to go to like less than a
penny. I couldn't imagine the bag holder downside on that. So when you're looking at these and you're
like, okay, why do people buy Bitcoin? People buy Bitcoin to reduce their downside potential.
Why do people buy shit coins? People buy shit coins essentially to, to be able to profit from
them. Right. You're not, you're not, you're not marrying the project. You're not like, Hey, this is,
this is my life. You're, you're, you're taking advantage of the liquidity flow. And I think that's,
that's, that's the part that people, when they, when they get chain maximalists, they miss the plot on
that. Right. They miss the plot on being able to have a performance portfolio and being able
to capitalize on that performance portfolio capitalizing means just simply, you know,
being able to take profit and so on and so forth. But I think Ethereum, I mean, I, I, I pointed out
yesterday, I was like, everybody's eager to jump ship right before the move and look at where we're
at today. Look at where we're at today. Right. So many people missed it. So many people missed it.
Like you could, you could have simply just been in for the trade. You don't even have to marry that,
marry it or anything like that. You, you could be in the beta, so on and so forth,
looking for even more on the trade. Again, we always, we always joke. We always joke about this,
but it's not a joke. Like price, price is the fundamentals behind any project. That's true.
So like ETH is, ETH is bad tech. ETH is bad tech until the ETH BTC valuations above 0.07.
You know, ETH is link is bad tech under five bucks, but at 15, it's going to change the world.
You know what I mean? And also I just want to point this out. This is, this is,
remember what I'm saying here, because this is going to happen. I studied this, this stuff like
a hawk all day long. I'm on top of these rotations early. Give it like 10 to 14 days.
Casp is going to 35 cents. I see Jim up here too.
Maxwell. No, no, no. It's a captain Casparad.
Captain Casparad. Jim's the Casparad guy, you know, Jim, Jim's the Casparad. I'm telling you,
Bitcoin moved, ETH moved. Casparad is going to 35 cents. That's its next leg up, but it's going to
wait. You guys, you guys should look at the, uh, you got to keep an eye on the Casparad
Bitcoin pair because that's basically bounced off support. That's been holding as support
pretty much since it started trading and it touched it. And I think it's ready to go.
It's going to outperform Bitcoin near term. Jim, Jim, can you enlighten us? Um,
speaking of Caspa, right. But can you enlighten us on like what Caspa has coming up for it this year?
I understand that, uh, there's going to be an update where basically we're going to be able to
experiment with Caspa DeFi, right. Similar to how we can speculate on Bitcoin DeFi through,
through stacks and ordinals and all those things. Hold up. Before you get in all that,
Wabi, because that sounds like it's going to be really long. Let me, let me just finish the
thought real quick. And then, and then I'm going to ask you guys something and then you can tell me
if I can or can't, but I just wanted to know if I can reveal the elephant in the room with ETH BTC
valuations. I have no idea, but for me, the elephant in the room for ETH BTC is the January 2018 high.
Um, even though that is a bit of a side out because from the December 2018 low to the high,
um, ETH outperformed Bitcoin by like 80%. No, no. So I'm, no, I'm asking if, if I can reveal
the elephant in the room with the ETH BTC chart. Yeah, I gave my thoughts on it, but what about you,
man? What do you think, uh, the elephant in the room? So my, my thesis is that it'll be a hot take.
A lot of people will probably not like it, but ETH BTC chart doesn't matter. It's flat out doesn't
matter. You, you look at past performance, you look at current performance, uh, you look at
percentage gains, like you're, it's just a better performer in a bull market. In a bear market,
Bitcoin is a better performer, right? And that just means downside potential. So I'm just,
I'm just being realistic. I know people don't like to hear that. I can show the data supporting
my thesis on just about any coin out there. Yeah. It, it, it, it depends, man. Um, we,
we, we remember like, you know, the up only market from 2020, 2021, when Bitcoin started to rally from
10 K because of Michael Saylor, ETH basically crapped the bed until February. Like I, I remember
exactly how that pump happened, man. Like ETH broke, uh, it's 20, it's January, 2018, all time
high in February of 2021. And then it broke below it and didn't really do much until like March and
April. And then like ETH rallied for about eight weeks in the market top. So I think like with ETH
itself, right, I'm not talking about ETH beta dude, cause brother, I hold optimism. I am an
optimism, uh, optimist, right? I actually think it's like the best L2, um, for Ethereum. And I have
my reasons for that, but like for ETH itself, it's, it's, it's basically an indicator that like,
all right, once ETH starts to rally, right, I'm saying all time high, I'm not saying from here,
but once ETH breaks all time high and starts putting in like, uh, like two week closes at new
all time highs, it basically gives the market, um, the all season signal, which is basically,
you know, three to six weeks where you can change your life. And, you know, I think that's a key
thing to mention here, right? Like once we break all time highs, right on both BTC and ETH,
you basically have a clean three to six weeks, six week period of easy mode that and once a quarter,
because for the most part, like even in a bull market, right, it's basically three to six weeks
of up a 40% pullback, nothing for about two weeks, grind slowly back up before the next expansionary
phase. And yeah, that, that, that's what I've noticed that ETH last cycle.
What I'm talking about specifically is Pete to trough, right? And so if you're looking at performer
from Pete to trough, everything across the board can outpace Bitcoin, but what's the best asset in
a bear market to be in? It's Bitcoin a hundred percent because Bitcoin is going to see the least
downside over every other asset, every other set. Some of those assets are going to zero, right?
They're, they're literally going to go to zero, whether people want to want to admit that or not.
And, and so we understand the risk. We understand the risk. Again, it's, it's an RR, right? A risk
to reward. And you have to be able to capitalize on the risk to reward at the end of the day.
And so you have to understand that a, some, some plays you're going to absolutely lose on
like a hundred percent of your, of your allocation. Some plays you're going to absolutely kill it on,
but your performance portion can outweigh, you know, massive portions of, of your, of your overall
stability portion. And so like, I do hold Bitcoin for stability in my portfolio, but when I'm looking
for, for performance, it's definitely not, you know, in the Bitcoin category, but you have to build
liquidity before you can even start, you know, looking to hold on to some liquidity from a
stability standpoint. Again, I always come in here and I talk about when I'm talking, I'm, I'm talking
performance over everything. I know a lot of people like to talk about Bitcoin, Ethereum,
Casper, Sol, all these different players, but I am talking performance and you, you get it too,
Wabi. I, we've talked about it. You understand what I'm talking about with performance, but that,
that's really the best way to capitalize on these markets because there's a lot of money to be
grabbed, right? There's a lot of liquidity to be grabbed. Here's a lot of flows that look,
that are really good. And you, you can really make it in these markets if, if you're able to
identify the flows and be ahead of the curve on, on the moves of liquidity. A lot of
people are investing for long-term saying that, oh, I'm trying to be anti-government.
I didn't come here to be anti-government, pro-government, whatever. I came here because
the liquidity flows are awesome, right? The upside is amazing. And then in addition to that,
in addition to that, it's, it's, it's a world currency. It's, it's, it's a world currency and
a world liquidity, right? The world dictates the price of Bitcoin. The world dictates the price of
crypto and it's a free market. This is, this is truly a free market, right? I can put my money
anywhere as I want. I can do anything I want in this market and it's a free market. Nobody's
controlling it. I, I arguably say the stock market is no longer a free market. It is very controlled,
very dictated. Lots of things are put in places as stops and, and, and goes and so on and so forth.
They can stop the stock market sell-offs if they occur. They can literally just stop them if they
want to. That's not a free market. That's that, that, that's a controlled market. And so when you
know that that's occurring at that point, your gain potential, it's very weakened. And so you have to
look for free-flowing markets. And that, that's why I like crypto as a free-flowing market. It doesn't
mean I don't hold stocks. It just means that I know the most liquidity I'm going to make is going to be
here. But you can go with the, with the camera thing. No, no, no, no. We, we, we, we, we can skip
that. We can leave that like towards the end. I actually want to do an exercise here guys.
So last cycle, right in September and October of 2020, we started having publicly traded companies
buy Bitcoin, uh, to add onto their balance sheet. And you know, the following few months we saw Bitcoin
break all time high. And now we're having, uh, institutional entities that have, you know,
an AUM of, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars about, uh, uh, Bitcoin exchanges.
I believe. Hey, Wabi, Wabi, Wabi, we're rugging. Wabi, we're rugging. Save it.
Save the space before it rugs. Testing, testing, testing. Can you guys hear me?
Okay. All right. You're good. You're good. Okay. All right. All right. Give me, give me one
second. I'm going to, uh, I'm going to take like two steps. Hold on. How long have you been
staring at the screen, Max? Just out of curiosity. My trading view screen. Yeah. About five years
straight. Give or take. Can you guys hear me? Testing, testing. Oh man, dude. Since, since,
since 6am this morning, Will, I've been just, just staring at it. It's, uh, the, the eyes are getting
itchy. Let's put it that way. Am I clear? My favorite show. Yeah. Wabi, you sound, you sound great.
Okay. So, uh, so anyways, what I was saying is, all right, uh, last cycle, September, 2020,
October, 2020, we had, uh, publicly traded companies add Bitcoin onto their balance sheet.
And now we're kind of going through the same thing, um, with, uh, institutional entities
with an active AUM of hundreds of billions of dollars, uh, basically having a small swap
into spot Bitcoin with Coinbase as its primary, uh, custodian, which, um, BlackRock has, you know,
somewhat of, uh, a stakehold in given that circle and Coinbase work together and, you know,
circles predominantly owned by BlackRock. So it's kind of like a loop, right? And this cycle has
somewhat of the same seasonings as the previous one with this spot, uh, BTC ETF potentially leading
into, uh, the ETH, uh, spot ETF. So, you know, if we're in September or October of 2020,
then that means that there is a case to be made that over the next 90 days going into the Bitcoin
having that there is a possibility that we could, uh, break 69 K. So what I want to do here for this
exercise is kind of go around with you guys, give like a two to three minute, uh, statement,
whether you think, uh, either BTC and ETH are going to break all time highs, um, yes or no. And,
and, uh, and why, um, I'll go ahead and say it first. I think Max Payne would be yes. Um,
I think breaking all time highs this quarter, and then basically chopping around until the election,
I think that would be Max Payne. Um, and then over the summertime, we have a massive PVP,
just as we did last summer where some L1s benefit. And of course, ETH on chain has somewhat of a story
with Eigenlayer, uh, going into main net. So that's my reason, uh, for the case that we could break
all time highs, but as far as, you know, not hitting all time highs for this quarter, I sort of think the
reason why, uh, we wouldn't be able to break, uh, all time highs is simply because this cycle, um,
is not different. So I sort of think that, you know, once the flow start, we have a spike up and
then we start to distribute on Bitcoin and then all coins, uh, start to rally and we just repeat the
having cycle. So I've made my case for yes. And I've made my case for no, but ultimately I think,
like as a personal opinion, I think down the middle, I think we'll probably trend a lot higher
into the having than people like to expect. And I'm, I'm in agreement with Jackis. I do think we
could hit, uh, 60,000, 61,000, uh, going into the having, um, then potentially, you know, a correction,
uh, via rate cuts, but you know, that's just my own personal dubious speculation, but, uh, we could
start over with, with, with Jackis, if you're, uh, if you're available brother.
Yeah, sure. Uh, I'm a little, a little lobby. Sorry.
Oh, yeah. Um, basically to make a case for hitting all time highs in Q1 or not hitting all time highs,
uh, in Q1 and your reason why and your own personal opinion.
Well, I'll go with what I was saying since Q1, Q2 last year, 2023, right? Since like,
everyone caught me crazy for thinking we go here. And my, my thesis is basically still the same.
Although I might give slightly higher probabilities of reaching all time highs for BTC, but my thesis was
that we just have to go above that, uh, March 2022 high sitting at 48k above there. That's the major
sentiment change. That's where you seek up or flip most likely. And well, maybe he's just a meme, right?
Right. At this point. But, uh, but like, that's where you see the, all the sideliners just sort of
being proven wrong, just like on equities when they hit new all time highs, right? All that bearish
propaganda we heard 2022 and 23 being annihilated. So that level 48k is a major psychological level.
And I've been saying we go above. And that's in my opinion, where we could potentially see a
distribution before a higher timeframe pullback. Now I do think that we, okay, this would be longer
talk, but that's my thesis. But as I said, also, you know, I would give it this, this scenario, like
60, 70% probability, but I also said that I remain bullish as long as the structure is,
as long I do not see any bad economic data being bad. And generally, you know, equities, TXY, and lots
of, lots of this data context that I use in term market analysis, right? It will be, but that's, uh,
all of that that I watch. So until I see those things being, uh, bad, I remain basically bullish.
And I could see a scenario where we chat above new all time highs. And then, you know, we maybe pull
back from like 90k and retest prior all time high or 60k or, you know, something of that kind. It's
possible too. For now, I remain bullish as long as the structure, as long as the trend.
I thought you were about to say bearish, brother.
No, no, no. I'm bullish as long as I, uh, again, as I see the trend being intact, as long as I do not
see distribution, right? If I would see us going 120 days sideways, and I would see some
not good structure, let's put it that way. I, I, I could see that being, uh, distributive and the
hard time frame rotation being in, you know, for a retest of 30k or something. But until I see that,
I remain bullish. So that's my take, uh, going into Q1, Q2, or generally this year, right? I do think
we will see a hard time frame pullback at some point this year, some scary one. That, of that,
I'm pretty confident. Question is from where? Yeah, the pullback from like 75k down to 32, 33,
that would be this. I do not see that, Wabi. I do not see that. If we, if we go to 75,
I do not see 30k retest anymore. I could see 30, 30k retest as long as we stay below all-time highs.
And I do think that's the case, right? Like, like, as I said, my main area is between 48 to 60k
being a potential distribution. And I know that at that point when that happens, right? At that extreme,
it's going to be the inverse sentiment. The inverse sentiment we had when we were down. Back then,
this was realistic and I was crazy. Now when I will be thinking, hey, like, uh, you know,
we could have a correction and then I'll be crazy vice versa. But again, as I said, Wabi, this is
important for everyone. As long as the trend is bullish, the structure is bullish, the data are not
bad or anything. Then, you know, I expect the trend to continue and you should sit on your hands.
Yeah. Celestia is absolutely standing right now, man. I like to see that. Hopefully it breaks.
I think the all-time high that it set a few days ago was 1720. But I'm going to pass this over to
Max now. Max, what are your thoughts on a Q1 break of all-time high? Give a case for yes,
give a case for no and your own personal thoughts for Q1 specifically.
Yeah. Yeah. I am absolutely entertaining a potential all-time high pressuring for Bitcoin
and maybe ETH in Q1. I would hope that it's Bitcoin leading the way. And then we see another rotation
into things like ETH and then ETH beta and other ecosystems. But yeah, I am absolutely entertaining
an all-time high. I agree with a lot of the points that Jack has made. I don't think
that there is a reason to fight the momentum and to fight the trend. And I mean, trust me,
I'm scouring for bearishness. I'm scouring for bear divs, loss of momentum, lower time frame traps.
I mean, I'm not coming up here with a moon boy. Those of you that followed me know I was extremely
bearish. All of 2022 was shorting like crazy. I mean, beyond all cash, right? I mean, I was net
negative. I was positionally biased to the downside for like two years. And I recently flipped and it
happened, you know, end of Q3, early Q4 of last year. And I saw the light and I don't think it
makes a lot of sense to, you know, really start to see risk rallies, specifically crypto risk,
which I believe is lagging legacy. And we'll probably go on to make a new all-time high,
just like the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones and perhaps later on the Russell. But it
hasn't yet. I think that to basically go through a very terrible 2022, so 12 months of serious pain,
reaccumulation towards the second half, and then more reaccumulation, basically all of 2023.
And then it's just 2024. Things are starting to heat up and everybody has so much bear market PTSD
that they just simply can't get out of their own way. And they're terrified to remain
exposed to the long side for prolonged periods of time. So, yes, I think it's certainly possible.
I also think that the argument that, well, we've never made an all-time high before the Bitcoin
halving by itself is not enough ground to stand on, in my opinion, to make a solid case for Bitcoin
not making an all-time high in Q1. One, we only have a few data points. And two, I think I would
agree with those that say the death of the four-year cycle is occurring. You can't just
buy Bitcoin and buy it right basically at the Bitcoin halving or just after and like 10x your
net worth. It's not that simple. I think that the cat's out of the bag. I think that the Bitcoin
halving is being front run. And I think that the timing of these ETF approvals is not a coincidence.
So I think, again, the cat's out of the bag. I think there's still a lot of people sidelined.
I think that most people were planning and expecting and anticipating the old classic
30% to 40% aggressive drop down before Bitcoin halving. And I just think you're probably not
going to get it. I don't see really why you would at this point. That doesn't mean it goes straight
up in a straight line. But I think we have a lot of catching up to do to the upside. And I think the
best case I can make for it is that TradFi indexes, legacy indexes, the S&P 500, NASDAQ,
and Dow Jones have basically paved the path for Bitcoin and ETH and now crypto risk going on to
make new all-time highs. And Will and I have done extensive fractaling on market check where we
basically place those three major US legacy indexes side by side with Bitcoin and ETH. And they trade
relatively in sync with one another on a higher timeframe. But there is a lead and a lag to them.
So yeah, I'm absolutely expecting it as long as we don't see poor economic data or some sort of recession
manifests itself in a very short period of time. Or we get a black swan, which you can't account for.
I am long and strong and I'm not planning to modify my positioning. I don't see a reason to at this
point. I actually think this is where things start to heat up and people go,
shit, I completely missed this rally because I was waiting for the 30% to 40% dip before the halving.
And we always get it. And you know, my favorite guru online told me it was coming and it just didn't
come. And there's a lot of sideline stable coins. And we're also seeing stable coin market caps
increasing right now, which is new. That means that there's new money coming into the space.
So compounding that again with the ETF tailwinds, a new payment rail or not payment rail, a new like
liquidity rail to onboard fresh capital into Bitcoin and crypto. You've got it. You've got the perfect
recipe trifecta, quadfecta. I mean, whatever. So many reasons to be bullish. I think that I think
that taking your foot off the gas here is silly. And you know, again, I'm talking high timeframe,
guys. This doesn't mean go like, you know, leverage, leverage your entire net worth into
something on the lower timeframes, but I'm just speaking my book here. You know, I'm just being
honest with you guys. So yeah, well, I'm, I'm, I'm seriously entertaining it. I am, but you know,
I'll be quick to pivot if things change. And if they do, you'll hear me up here striking a very
different, a very different posture than I am right now. Yeah. And the reason why I'm asking
this is because back in 2016, you know, we actually eclipsed the total crypto market cap
all time high, but Bitcoin was still, you know, a ways away from hitting all time high. So I sort of
think the case is definitely to be made to at least if not the Bitcoin and ETH price for all
time highs at the very least, you know, total crypto market cap. And I do think some of these
alts can rally a lot harder than people like to expect. And of course, you know, tether printing
dozens of more billions out of thin air, but Mr. Spread, I'll pass it on to you, man. What are
your thoughts, your case for hitting new all time highs in Q1? Yes and no. And your own personal
opinion?
What a good question, man. What a good question. I'm, I'm not as bullish as Max. He was much
more aggressive and he was obviously hitting his numbers much faster than I am, but I'm on
the same tune as he is. I rotated to bullish again back last year. I was also bearish for
quite some time. I started accumulating Bitcoin around 21,000. And as you know, when we were
in these spaces with NACA, I stopped when we dropped on the 17th of August and I restarted
above 32,000. And on alts, I just recently added something. So I just have some injective.
I have Algorand and I have Avax. Unfortunately, I was not smart enough. And this is the second
time when I'm going to say it, I was not smart enough to also have some of your plays, you
especially, Wabi. But, you know, I gave you the, the Caesar's hand when I reposted what
I hinted about.
Hang on, brother. Hang on, man. Look, brother, even if somebody missed out on the entire 2023
run this year and next year, man, there's going to be so many opportunities. And that's the
beauty of the market, man, is that it gives you endless opportunities, brother. So, you
know, nobody, nobody is a genius, man. Nobody here is a genius.
I'm a boomer. I'm a boomer, Wabi.
I'll be the first one to tell you, man. I will be the first one to tell you. I am a bull
market hero, man. I am a, I am a benefactor of 0% interest rates and QE. And that, that's
it, man. I'm not a Ray Dalio or anything like that, but I appreciate it.
Oh, but credit where credit is due, man. And the only thing that I missed, I missed the
rally in alts. My average price on Bitcoin is around $28,500. So double the money there
being, you know, more of a classical trader for me already. That's amazing. And that's why
I just started like a little bit shy with injective. I don't know what got into me to
buy that position on Algorand, but it's a small allocation. It's only 5%. But recently
because I was watching TIA because of you.
Because it's bottom. That's why I go ahead though.
Thank you. I'm watching mint layer. So I'm watching also injective. Some of the ones
that I think are going to go higher. I have to give credits also to Mercury, to Max and
to Xaka also, because, you know, that saying that you average your winners and in a bull run
you have to just get comfortable buying higher is something very, very, very smart. I was
already buying on premium. But enough of that. Regarding the all-time high in this quarter,
I really think that there is a possibility. I don't know how much higher than that we
can go. But exactly like Max said, there is a possibility as long as not some, I don't
know, as long as the shit is not hitting the fan. Nobody can model a Black Swan. That's
why it's called the Black Swan. And I just read something right now that some of the very
hawkish FOMC members, they're also talking about tapering. So I think that's
that even if you have rate cuts, and I think that the first one might be in March, I'm really
curious what they're going to do with the BTFP, like I said. So the rate cuts, maybe I'm not
going to be so aggressive towards the economy. Maybe they're just going to rate cut to start,
I don't know, just letting the companies just breathe out a little bit and make the people
make more credits. So all in all, I think we can touch or get near the all-time highs on Bitcoin,
as long as nothing breaks in the global economy. But liquidity is coming. You know that I'm pounding
the table with liquidity. Global liquidity is good. I'm watching the liquidity on Tether. I'm seeing the
demand and it's a very, very aggressive demand. And what we saw yesterday, and you guys pointed
out very nicely. And that's why I did the thread today with ETH. Exactly, this is the same feeling
today. From all this BTC ETF drama, I think that the winner is ETH. I don't think so. I don't care
so much on ETH BTC also, because that can still underperform. I don't care so much. But you know,
the betas are a very good one. The rotation was very good. And if things are looking like the way
are looking right now, I think the pain train is higher. So I don't know much higher than the
all-time high, but I think there is a possibility. Plus, this might be the start of an all-season.
And you know, I'm not that bullish and I'm like very, very cautious with this kind of statements,
but things look good. And we have to let ETH run. And after that, we can see the betas.
And in the same time, I know that some people wait for that full blown out season. But in the same
time, TIA, I think is going to reach an all-time high this evening. Injective, I think, is going
to follow up. And all the other ordinals, I think that they're going to follow up. Like I said,
mean player and some of the others. We can make also the betas plays on ETH. So all in all,
I think clear skies ahead for the next 8 to 12 weeks. Yeah, I think the Celestia and, say,
EcoFund are about to be announced here in the next couple of weeks. And that also goes in line
with ETH. And there's this L2 called Blast that's going to go live next month where they
basically have an unlock of like a billion plus dollars of Ethereum about to go on into
the market. So I think, you know, the all-season that we're talking about where you see a $2
to $3 billion market cap token go to like $15 to $20 billion. I think I'm interviewing that
that that sort of alt-season where you see high caps rally hard is coming up, especially if like
the stock market follows. And stocks like Amazon break their all-time highs from November of 2021.
But, oh, Mr. Spready, you have your hand up. Go ahead, brother.
Just one more thing. One more, one last thing from the TradFi. And I think this is something that
it's flying out of the radar. Nikkei is about to touch a level that it hasn't touched since 1987.
So since June 1987. So you can say whatever you want. Yeah, it's absolutely crazy, man. And one
more time, it looks like Buffett knows what he's doing. If you guys remember, last year at his age,
he flew to Tokyo. He flew to Japan and he heavily invested to Japanese companies. I don't know what
he saw there, but Nikkei hitting that level since 1987. We all know that there is a very high
possibility that NASDAQ and Dow Jones and S&P are going to follow up. So like I said, with everything
that's going on right now, I think risk assets can still rally at least until March, until Fed is going
to decide with the BTFP.
Well, Japan hitting all-time highs, man. That would be pretty awesome to see. Anime, the power of anime,
right? But I'm going to pass it on over to Will now. Will, what are your thoughts on breaching an
all-time high in Q1? Make a case for yes, make a case for no, and then giving your own personal
statement. All-time highs for either Bitcoin or total crypto market cap. I'm more of a traditionalist.
I do not think Bitcoin will reach all-time high. I still stick to the four-year cycle theory. I know a
lot of people, you're a boomer. That's okay. I'm a boomer. It's whatever. You got to stick to what
you know, right? You got to stick to what you know. And I can tell you until the pattern changes,
I have to stick to the pattern. The pattern is follow the cycle. So I'm going to follow the cycle.
And I expect Bitcoin will be above all-time high, probably going into the halving or after the
halving. I'm still a believer in that. I know a lot of people are not a believer in that. And there
are a lot of new participants in this market who haven't been in quite as long. And they're looking
at it like, oh, this time's different. Every cycle, I hear that. Every single cycle. I mean,
this is my third. This is my third. And every cycle I've heard this time is different. And it
always results in the same way. Now, keep in mind, I do think that the passive flows, because that's
what I think will come in with the ETF, will help with the support of crypto and the support of
Bitcoin, well, Bitcoin specifically, because that's where the liquidity flows will go.
So, and the downside in the bear market will be less. But I mean, I think ultimately, if you think
about any appreciating asset, all assets over time have less and less downside until there's almost
none, right? And then those assets themselves lose that growth potential when they get into that stage
where there's no more volatility. Volatility is what creates opportunity. And opportunity is how you
capitalize. But I think overall, when you're looking at Bitcoin specifically, I think we'll
probably trade into the $40, $50, or $40, $50, $50, $50 range, relatively going into the halvening,
maybe a little bit higher, maybe $52, somewhere in there. Really enticing people to buy up here,
bore them out, bore them out of their positions, make them think we're going to go much lower,
maybe retest the lows, the low 40s, so on and so forth. Get people to sell thinking that they can get
lower prices, and then absolutely rip off and make them buy much higher. Like, and it's not really a
thought process, like I think in my head, as if, but I think it's more of a reality of where I think
things are going for Bitcoin. I think too many people are too pressed on the current events, rather
than just paying attention to where price is and taking things as they come. But yeah, that's my thoughts.
I don't think we, I don't think we reach all-time high Q1 this year, but I think there's good
potential for it after the halvening. Jim, what about yourself, brother?
Yeah, I think everybody made some good points. There's definitely possibilities in all of that.
I think, Wabi, what you said about Max Payne being up, I do agree with that. I think people are
definitely in disbelief still. A lot of PTSD, I feel like. I mean, there's a lot of bulls out there,
but I think people are just still kind of hesitant to really, I think people still, a lot of people
are sitting out or just not as exposed as they would like to be. And so if it really just didn't
pull back, that would be a real, maybe bummer for a lot of people. So for that reason, I think there
maybe would be some case to be made for like more upside. Because once Bitcoin is at all-time highs,
I think people are going to really question themselves about what they were doing. So there's
that. And then, I mean, to me, maybe it's obvious that maybe it won't happen because it's so obvious,
but like to me, like, yeah, the 48k level just seems like such an obvious area where the price
is going to get rejected from. And we're pretty much coming up to it right now. So maybe it's too
obvious and it won't happen. But I mean, maybe it's not obvious actually, and it will happen. So I
don't know. I mean, I don't know. Cause I see things in the chart that to me are obvious, but
maybe most people aren't, aren't seeing that. And so it's not that obvious because me and you,
well, specifically you, it started with you. And then our main man, Sisu, who's our micro cap
gem hunter here at BB, myself, we were all yelling about CASPA when it was at two cents,
it's just under two cents. And, you know, it was pretty obvious if you're into like proof of work
assets, uh, in the cryptocurrency market and same thing with alts, right? Like, you know,
leading up to this ETF event, man, we were all screaming that like, you know, we'll probably
start to send again for the next expansionary phase right after, uh, the ETF stuff gets out of
the way. And, you know, here we have it as we're speaking right now, dude, all coins are
sending ripping pace right now. And if you remember this time last year, um, I think it was like
January 11th as well, dude, January 12th, right after that CPI, uh, reading. And that evening,
I remember, cause I was hosting a space BTC ripped from like 16, seven, 16, eight, all the way to, uh,
21 K. And this is, uh, quite similar, you know, as far as seasonality goes to last year, man. So I,
I, I, I think like for people like me and you, right. That went through some stuff in 2022, right.
You know, witnessing Luna and all that stuff, albeit I did take a haircut on that and managed to,
you know, scrape away. But I think there's something to be said with people that go through
an experience like that. Right. And then, you know, start to manage to come back from that. And
they view the market in such an animalistic, almost cerebral way where it's like shark mode,
right. You're looking out over the place and you concentrate on a specific sector and
man, I have to applaud you, man. You killed it, uh, with Casper. And, uh, even with BTC, man,
I remember you, uh, being under my replies, um, back in Q2 of last year, I had put in out a tweet
saying that like, nobody is ready, uh, for the candles of 40 K. Right. And that was shortly after
SVB. And I remember you posted up, uh, uh, like the chart with a cool, like fib extension and all
that stuff, man. So that applaud you for that brother. Right. Yeah. I mean, 48 K has been the
level that I've been pretty much saying since the bottom of, you know, like 15 K because really you
just, you know, you just draw the fib and you look at what it did last time. And then here we are.
Uh, sometimes, sometimes it just, it just does what it did before, but now we're, we did what
we did before last, last bear market. And I don't know if we're really at a, at the same, the thing
is we levels wise, we we've done the same thing, but I don't know if we're at the same point in the
cycle. So now we're looking at the point in the cycle that we're at and then considering the level
that we're at. Um, and so we have to look at it a little differently because the timing is a little
different. Like now this might not be a bear market rally. It may be the like real deal. And
we may not actually get that pull back like we did last time. And, and like you said, maybe max pain
is to the upside and we just blast through this level. Like this is a big level that we're at right
now. So, um, I think, I mean, I'm looking at it, like I would never buy here. I mean, I already
bought a long time ago and I'm just, it's all, you know, I'm on the surface, you know, I'm not,
I'm not feeling the undertow or anything like that. So it's all whatever it's all. Yeah. So I'm just
riding it for whatever it's worth. And, you know, if it got really scary again, maybe I'd, I'd buy more
and I, you know, I'm mainly, I'm only buying Casper, but, um, but you know, the market would have to get
really bloody again for me. Um, and that's why max pain might be to the upside because there might be
some people who really were, were trying to look for entries and still, um, and not just
consistently not getting them. And, uh, and that's just a real bummer. If you end up sitting out an
entire cycle for, it's really hard, you know, I don't know what to say. I'm not telling anybody
what to do. I just, you know, you're in a hard position if, if, uh, you don't have the exposure
that you wanted because everybody was telling you, uh, uh, you know, the banks are collapsing,
these changes are going to zero, you know, withdraw all your money to your bank. And then,
uh, where do I even put my money? Because the banks are going down. Do I just go direct and,
you know, get treasury bonds and stuff? Like, what do I even do with my cash? Do I put it under my
bed? So everybody wasn't buying because everybody was too scared, you know, like it was max fear.
And a lot of people have PTSD from that still, and they just didn't get into the market probably.
So, but now we're at the point where it's, uh, it could blast right through this level because
maybe it's so obvious that it could pull back here. I don't know. That's just what I see. And so,
um, I don't know. You might be right about max pain being still to the upside. I don't know. I mean,
this level to me is a level. If it's going to pull back, it's going to pull back here,
but maybe it's too obvious. So it'll pull back maybe at the all time highs or something like
that. And then everybody's going to be asking themselves, Oh, is Bitcoin going to do a double
top this time? Cause it's never done a double top before. So maybe it has a really scary pullback,
you know, at like 70 K and then it drops down to like 45 K and everybody's like, huh? Cause it's
never done that before. Right. So you got to think about what it's never done before and then be
prepared for that. Well, I remember, um, like when I first started, I examined every single crypto cycle
and I remember, um, in early 2017, we broke the all time high and then dipped below it by like 10,
15% and people thought it was all over. Um, so I kind of think we're repeating that cycle.
Right. And if you even, um, look at, you know, some of the narratives that went on in 2017, right.
With, you know, JP Morgan joining the, uh, like, I think it was, I think it was called the enterprise
Ethereum Alliance. And it was like the first, uh, headwind of, um, you know, institutions coming in
and all that stuff. And I'd like to think as far as a trend goes, I think we're going to go through,
uh, uh, 2016, 2017, or it's more like a clean logarithmic uptrend rather than,
two periods of up only followed by chop and downside liquidations like 2020 and 2021 was right
where you just had to be so fast in those rotations, man. Otherwise you would have gotten
destroyed, man. You know, um, just take a look at some assets, uh, in Q1 of 21, right? Like
synthetics and Aave, right? For the most part, those assets topped out in Q1 of 2021. Right. And then they
just bled out profusely after that. Same thing with, same thing, uh, with Wi-Fi, right? Wi-Fi mainly
had its run during DeFi summer. And after that, you know, it had a little bit more upside, but
comparable to the rest of, you know, the emerging market didn't really do much. Right. Um, so I
understand we have some hands up, so I'm going to pass it on over, uh, to Mr. Spread.
One thing I want to say, and maybe you're never going to hear me say this again, because
I'm more of a balanced guy, but I see, I see that a lot of people, like I said the last time,
a lot of traders that I respect, they just, they're so focused on this 40k level and on chart,
I just use one indicator. So if nothing bad goes wrong, I mean, if nothing bad happens, sorry.
And if something out of the fucking blue hits the markets, I think we just blast through this
level. Okay. Technically there is nothing on this chart from weekly to daily, nothing right now that
tells me that we can go, the only pullback I see, it's around 44, under 44,000, maybe it's like
even, even to 40,000, but above 44, above 40,000, the downside is limited. So we just broke
above 44 and we were staying under, uh, we were staying under 44 since the beginning of December.
The market was not accepting the price above 44. We had that liquidation stupid candle from better
markets. And now like what, three days ago, we just ripped above. We have a break and we have a
perfect retest. And I'm like, I'm saying on my, the only indicator, which I'm using, which is
Ichimoku, it tells me that the skies are clear. So I, it's the first time when I'm going to call,
not necessarily for a God candle, but I think we're going to see 52 to 55, very, very fast
going forward. And one more thing to, to max, I want to say, remember when I first, uh, wrote that
thread max with it. And I said, the, the speed with which we might see 3000 is going to leave a lot
of people in shock. Oh, max is not here anymore. Okay. So when I first, uh, when we first went above
2,145, I had just wrote that thread and I said, okay, it also looks very, very nice right now.
And I remember also Jackie, Jackie's reply. Then in one of the spaces, I said, when we go above
2,500, I think the speed with which we're going to go to 3000 is going to leave a lot of people
in shock. And I think towards 3000, we can be even within the next week.
Hey man, bring it on brother. Bring it on, man. If that means, uh,
say goes above a buck, Tia goes to above 20. Hey man, let's have ETH at a 3000 plus. You know
what I'm saying? DBC what's going on, brother? Yeah. Um, just kind of to what Mr. Spread was
saying and somebody else before who I didn't hear. Uh, so some wisdom that I saw earlier in the month
is the market always goes higher and always goes lower than you expect. You know, like we're here,
like we're looking at it every day. We're looking at technical analysis, things like that. But when
my friend from college is like, bro, should I, should I throw like a grand into Pepe coin? Like
no one's looking at technicals and they're probably buying the top. So like, um, I get, I, I guess I'm
not really asking a question more. So like maybe poke some holes in my thought process because, you
know, just trying to learn here. But, uh, I'm thinking like, you know, if, if you had a good entry
and, and there's like levels that you see key, like taking some off the table is definitely a
good idea, but, um, just always leaving a little bit just for like the euphoria you didn't expect
or always keeping a little bit extra cash for the downside you didn't expect is kind of, uh, you
know, what I'm thinking around here. Um, I like, I, in my opinion, like, unless, uh, you know,
we get rugged by like macroeconomic, uh, macroeconomic things like, uh, raids, unemployment,
things like that. Like I could probably, I could see like us testing up to like the fifties,
maybe the sixties. But, um, I think who, who was it saying? I can't really see their name,
but it starts with a W. Um, they were saying that they're just trusting the cycles, uh, until
proven otherwise. So I, I'm kind of in that camp as well, just kind of looking at, okay, like, uh,
I'm, I'm, I'm going to just, you know, position myself as in, in the, with the idea that the
cycle, uh, the cycle, you know, we won't make all time highs before having, and if we do great.
And also like in terms of moves going forward, like, yes, what if BTC goes to 60, but like,
I just rotated like a lot of my BTC into all coins and Ethereum and they're up like 12%,
like the first day, like I did it last night. So like the first day I did that. So like, I mean,
what, would I be necessarily sad that I missed like a 20 K move on BTC if like alts go like twice
as high. So I guess like, um, pick your battles and, uh, always, always be ready for the unexpected.
Based man. That was pretty based. Well, what's up?
No, I, I, I just wanted to kind of touch base on some of that too. I, I think, um, you know,
looking for all time highs is, is great. I I'm looking at it like this Bitcoin historically,
every single time, not, not, not Mr. Beat, not Mr. Beat has always exceeded the previous high
after every having. So I'm not going to overcomplicate the market. Right. Um, I have no
reason to sell a single thing, a single thing until Bitcoin exceeds all time high. And then at that
point I can start looking at DC now. I, I, I'm, I'm, I'm literally coming up here and telling you
guys, this is like my basic strategy. It's really easy. It's not hard. I'm with you on that. I'm with
you on that too. Like, why would, why? I mean, unless you're like some, a lot of people here
are day traders too, but like, if you're not, this is the safest way to do it is to just wait
until Bitcoin setting new highs. And then, then you look for a top and start taking profits.
Yeah. And you, you could TP anywhere you want above all time. I, at that point, you could TP a little
bit here, a little bit there and just start that, you don't, you don't have to fully roll out. I mean,
this obviously I'm not trying to tell you guys, you know, how to do whatever you want to with your
money. I'm just telling you kind of just different strategies. I feel like everybody
always gets into this. I have to sell my whole bag and sit over and wait for the pullback. And
it's like, that's just such a horrible strategy. When you've got Nvidia already pressing new all
time highs, you got spy potentially getting ready to break out. You got queues already breaking out.
You've got a lot of indicators in the market that are, that are reaching, especially queues that
are reaching towards, you know, Hey, we want tech. Hey, we want higher risk. And we're going to
start to see liquidity start to slowly float out of these majors into mids and into smalls.
And we're seeing trickles of it in, in crypto. And I think just a lot of people aren't recognizing it,
but why do you think every single L one is moving? Why do you think every single L two standing still
it's simply liquidity moving into spaces ahead of time so they can front run all of your beta,
right? That's all it is. They're, they're trying to front run all the beta. And then once they,
once they front run all the beta, then you're going to see news articles and everything else of like,
how this is the next best thing, that's the next best thing, blah, blah, blah, market, market watch.
You know, I think that one's kind of a bit of a joke. Um, but they're going to be sitting there
because they do paid articles, by the way, uh, they're going to be sitting there talking about
how this is a new thing. That's a new thing. And at that point, people are going to start chasing
this higher beta, but you're chasing, you're not ahead of the move. And so this is why I always
position ahead of the rest of the market. When it comes to like, once I start to see flows into Bitcoin,
I start to look to layer ones, right? And then once layer ones start to see flows,
you move into your beta, which is, which is your, your mid caps and small caps and, and so on and so
forth. And some of these, you probably won't even see a move in them until like the end of the cycle,
right? We saw it last cycle. We saw it every cycle. I mean, Bitcoin really popped off towards the
beginning of the cycle, kind of started to slow down towards the end, the end of the year,
right in 2021. And then after it slowed down, you basically saw every alt and its mom literally just
like absolutely sinned. And you know, they, they sent a literary, literal Valhalla, right? Every
single one of them. And if you miss that move, it's unfortunate for you. But, uh, you know, once,
once you start to see that, that sin move, it's like, all right, now it's over. And I think a lot
of people, you know, they're, they're going to miss the boat again. It's, it's, you could tell people
the entire story and nobody's going to want to believe it until they see it. Um, and I tell people this all
the time that you get people chasing all the way down to the bottom, they'll chase this thing all
the way down. Um, but I think ultimately like in, until we exceed all the time highs, I'm just sitting
pretty. Like I, I got in really low guys. Like, I mean, I was in crypto near damn near the almost
exact bottom and calling a lot of the moves down there. Like, Hey, the position in this position and
that a lot of people who have followed me, like I got them in the things that were a penny that are now
worth 33, you know, that's, that's, that's a big move on, on overall assets. So you can, you can
either, you know, capitulate here before all time high, or you can just, you know, anticipate the
market and move as it's been moving. And that's what I anticipate for the time being, unless data
shows me different. Justin, go ahead, man. Then after Justin, I'm going to wrap up here, man. I think,
uh, we did a good job today. Yeah. So many good points. Um, I, I, I do think that max
pains up and I think a lot of people are, have bear market PTSD still and want to catch a move
a lot lower, which I, I don't think is going to happen. I don't think, I don't think we see
all time high this quarter, but I could definitely see potentially an all time high in second quarter.
Also, um, something I've noted too, I haven't really heard anyone talk about it is, uh, the market
cap of Tether is, is what is it right now? It's, uh, like $92 billion, $95 billion. Where's that money
going to go? You know, people, people are sidelined waiting to, to, to, for the perfect entry to buy
in. But at what point do people realize that we're no longer in a bear market? And this happened last
cycle too, which helped accelerate the entire market where Tether, do you guys, I don't, cause I
don't remember what the all time low mark cap was of Tether, but I know it was outside of the top
20, wasn't it? Top 30. Um, I, I, I'm not sure, man, but Tether has been, uh, Tether has been in
the top 10, um, for a good minute now, man. Yeah. In the bear, but I'm saying I'm talking more so
in the bull, it was in the top 20 roughly. Yeah. When it got, when, when peak euphoria hit,
when, when it was time to start really scaling out of the market, Tether plummeted so hard as
everyone, um, was chasing everything. And right now, like with the high market price of Tether,
that screams to me that there's so much uncertainty still with people, um, sidelined waiting to buy
lower. And what happens if we don't end up going a lot lower? Um, and we end up, you know, do hitting
all time highs in the next, uh, four to six months, which is entirely possible, especially
with ETH kind of leading the way is really good for altcoins. And we're seeing a lot of bounces on
altcoins today, but, um, you could, you could take Tether in a simplistic way. You can basically just
look at Tether and say, as long as it remains in the top 10, I still have opportunity. Yeah. Once
it starts dropping below that most opportunities gone, if not all of it. Yeah. Yeah. That's my,
that's my thinking too. Cause I, I just remember Tether, the court direct correlation of Tether
plummeting last cycle and all just going absolutely ridiculous, you know, and we haven't really seen
the, like we've, we've gotten a taste of, of alt season, but, um, you know, with, with Bitcoin
dominance, potentially not saying it is, but potentially topping out at least on the lower
timeframe. Um, we, we have altcoins start starting to move a little bit, but that's interesting
and seen even the last week, you know, four, four to $6 billion has been added to the mark
cap of Tether, which people are, it looks like people, um, sold to be in cash, uh, to kind
of anti anticipating sub 40 K Bitcoin. What if that never comes?
DBC, go ahead, brother.
I just, uh, kind of wanted to mention, cause Justin reminded me by like, you know, melt up
a comment in the beginning is, uh, I mean, if you just like draw a fib from the top of
the Ethereum high to the bottom, uh, recently, like we're only around the 0.382. I think we,
like we broke above it like this pump today. Like if, if we get to like, why would, if,
why would Bitcoin go to the 0.618? Why wouldn't Ethereum, you know? And then like salon is above
another fib level right now. And like Ethereum is literally like all time highs, uh, as of like
2024. So like, uh, to his point, like, uh, I don't think it's as much euphoria as much
as like, I mean, you could kind of back it up with technicals here with the whole melt
up, uh, scenario right now. That's all I just wanted to mention.
Great stuff, man. Well, exciting quarter to come. We'll see you guys tomorrow. Uh, same
time. We're going to have a Ted talks macro. He's going to be, uh, coming on the show, uh,
for the second half. So we're going to start the show tomorrow, uh, at about four 30. Right. And,
um, then Ted is going to come on at six. So tomorrow is going to be a more longer form of
this space. It's going to be about three hours or so potentially. So, uh, stick tuned. Oh my gosh,
stick tuned. Uh, stick around for that and stay tuned. Uh, this is your first time listening guys
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Christ is King without Christ. We are nothing. Thank you all. God bless you. Bye-bye.
Bye-bye.
Bye-bye.
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Bye-bye.
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