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You'll never be safe while you're through it. Thank you. guys welcome back welcome back to market talk brought to you by because bitcoin i'm your host wavi first and foremost i hope you all had a
fantastic long weekend we were blessed with a three-day weekend here in the u.s of a stock
market was closed but man man oh man did uh today's training session, trading session, caught some people by surprise.
Hoodstock made an all-time high.
That is absolutely incredible.
The NASDAQ, the QQQ, is now green on the year.
We are up 2.5% year to date.
Now, all we need left is for the S&P to catch up a little bit. The Qs have been
absolutely demolishing the S&P. I think if we flip, if you see the S&P flip last week's high,
do not be shocked. Do not be shocked at all. If next month or at the very latest by the end of july you see the s p going to 6400 and that is a
real thing myself and donnie throughout these spaces we've been talking about a market melt-up
that's exactly what the market has been doing over the last couple of weeks guys
like six weeks to be precise hyper liquid also made a new all-time high over the long weekend,
So from the low to yesterday's high,
I think it was Sunday depending on where you are in the world,
but I think it was like 24, 48 hours ago, hype hit $40.
So from the lows, hype went up about 300 plus percent in a month that is unreal
you don't get that kind of return in the equity markets uh in that quick amount of time you just
don't unless you're playing call options which quite honestly it's kind of like playing options it's kind of like playing uh poker honestly um but i i won't really get
into that i'm no options expert or anything i i'd rather find an edge uh playing all coins as i'm
sure some of you do right i'm sure a lot of you guys would rather play the on-chain markets rather
than go gamble and play against BlackRock in the options market.
And also Ken Griffith of Citadel, right?
Those guys are absolute sharks.
But either way, I hope you guys took some time to kind of sit back, relax, let charts do their thing.
You know, it's not every so often where the market gives you a time to breathe, right?
Bitcoin broke through $108K with Gusto.
We have now been trading above $100,000 on BTC for about three weeks now.
We have formed this beautiful trend on the 4-hour, on the 8-hour, on the daily.
The weekly looks like it wants to bust out to $120K.
But, of course, for BTC specifically, we did have a little bit of a pullback after we hit $111K.
$111K and some change, depending on what exchange you are looking at.
We pulled back a little bit um
and now the last two days we're kind of bouncing up a bit on chain haven't really noticed anything
outside of kita right we've been covering that one since seven mil or something like that um yeah things like hype and far coin at this point we just have to
accept that um spot markets are coming for these two names and the bid that those two names have
is unparalleled compared to almost any other altcoin um virtuals is also up like 40% over the last week.
If AI is going to come back, I've said this before,
I'm a lot more confident that Virtuals is one of the few
that actually makes an all-time high.
A lot of the other stuff, honestly, is quite trash.
And more often than not, I was kind of painting this
through the Discord, right? More often than not, was kind of painting this through the discord right more often than not
you're actually in a good position when you bid high caps that have been through the ringer have
been through multiple 50 60 70 drawdowns rather than trying to catch beta beta beta an example
that i gave uh to our discord community on the afternoon call was an example of BNB
versus Elrond last cycle when Bitcoin broke through 20K in mid-December, mid-December,
So Elrond was trading at around like 300 mil market cap. BNB was trading at like, I think, 10x the valuation.
But by the end of the bull market, BNB had produced more gains than Elrond,
which traded at a 90% discount relative to where they were trading at against one another
as Bitcoin went into price discovery.
And you take a look at something like a hype,
for example, right? There are very few things within the top 100, right? I want to say top
100 because we all know things outside of the top 100. Sometimes they have those anomalies that are
up like 20x, 30x that nobody really knows about knows about right but there are very few things within
the top 100 that have produced a 300 plus percent gain from the lows hype is now an official top 10
token if you exclude all right if you exclude wrapped bitcoin and stable coins hype is now a top 10 token and has flipped suey which is honestly incredible um i mean you
have something that doesn't really have you know that same kind of vc backing that huge war chest
uh that suey has flip suey and i mean i know there's some on-chain stuff going on with hyper liquid but i haven't really
experienced the hyper evm stuff yet uh but i do remember playing some of the hyper liquid ai
things back in like november december of last year and earlier this year in early january if you guys
year and earlier this year in early january if you guys remember when hyper liquid was
the talk of the town and once again it is the talk of the town it's one of the few in the top
hundred that have consistently gone on to make fresh local highs over the last month outside
of far coin and honestly guys things look things look really primed to go absolutely batshit insane after this mini pullback on the lower timeframes that we had on majors.
ETH pulled back a bit after hitting 2800.
SOL pulled back a bit after hitting just under 190, I think.
We do have the Bitcoin conference going on right now. And historically, it does kind of shake up the market a little bit. But I mean, when we just look again at the confluence that we have within the equity markets, where, again, you had a 20 plus percent correction on the McNazzy and on the McSpoos. Within six weeks, the Nasdaq almost
We do have the Bitcoin conference going on right now.
turned into the McNasdaq, drawing down almost 30 percent in six weeks. And the S&P drew down
close to 25 percent from peak to the bottom in essentially six weeks. And again, seasonality or not, when you have that much of an accelerated sell-off,
anytime we look at an event, whether it lasts a couple of weeks or a couple of hours,
like the COVID crash, it typically results in the start of a new bull market, right?
So, or not even a bull market, but just a continuation within a more secular bull market
because stocks are up and to the right.
It is the world's greatest Ponzi.
the world's greatest ponzi it is the world's greatest ponzi and now that btc is a part
It is the world's greatest Ponzi.
of that flywheel btc is just going to turbocharge um it's now a top five asset by market cap so
crypto is not going anywhere anytime soon guys at all whatsoever and you, you know, you're probably going to see some crazy stuff happening later this
year, given the news that we had earlier today. Trump Media is going to establish a 2.5 billion
acquisition in Bitcoin, which I think is absolutely bullish. You want to see these huge figureheads talk bullishly about
Bitcoin right when people push Bitcoin when people are enthusiastic about
Bitcoin when you have big money enthusiastic about Bitcoin that is what
creates bull markets and bull markets of course create froth froth creates exit
liquidity and the cycle repeats itself over and over and over and over again until, I don't know, we retire off of like Coca-Cola dividends or something like that.
Or, I don't know, we buy like a few mining farms or something like that.
But either way, guys, thank you all so much for tuning in, whether you're listening live right now or you're listening to the recording.
Spaces are recorded as always, guys.
I'm here joined by Chill, here joined by Donnie, here joined by the Duck.
Perhaps we'll have some people come in, right?
It's probably going to be a slow week as far as the spaces go and all that stuff, given that, you know, we are coming bit of a consolidation slash bearish chop phase
going into June. But then typically mid-June going into July, you do tend to see some fireworks
in volatility, right? So we do have some important dates to watch out for. We have the FOMC. And, of course, if we have Powell talking more dovishly, he only has 11 months left in his term,
we're probably going to absolutely send, to be frank.
And, really, the market hasn't given much opportunity to bid huge pullbacks.
The pullbacks have been very shallow but the consolidation has tested
the patience of many people I'm sure you guys can take a look at the chart of
something like a far coin right for coin since since it's low in mid-march
you'll see that it is a beautiful beautiful cup and handle formation
pattern occurring, right?
But if you place that trade back in March or even last month, you'll kind of know that it's been a grind.
And honestly, Farcoin probably hits $10.
Farcoin probably hits 10 bucks far coin probably hits 10 bucks but nonetheless where i was getting
at is this new bull market if you want to call it that right if you think this is the uh a a a
new regime right a new regime fueled by trump policy right trump nuked the market on purpose
and now you are going to see
the Trump pump effect on the market within a couple of months, right? Raging S&P, raging NASDAQ,
this and the other, crypto is the talk of the town and all that stuff. The market has been
gracious enough to allow people to get during these long consolidation periods. Wow, I'm gagging. That's unreal, man. Barely a few times has this
ever happened to me. But nonetheless, the market over the last few months with Farcoin and Hype
has given you these clean opportunities where after a massive expansive leg up,
there's typically a shallow pullback and you've got about a week and a half or so to bid whatever level that it's consolidating in between because then it just goes higher.
And at some point, once you have the equity markets going into price discovery, I mean, you guys know that essentially crypto is the best beta to the stock market and it turbo charges
like nothing anyone has ever seen before the product market fit of this entire
industry is NGU number go up technology but that's my opening statement guys I
want to welcome up the panel here but before we do that guys before we cook
for you guys and do what we do best over the next hour or so
and rant and banter about all things crypto markets prices narratives and dubious speculation
dubious speculation if y'all can go ahead and show some love for the space
yes and go ahead and show some love to the space, you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space by clicking the spaces tab.
And once you guys do that, you'll see all of our beautiful profile pictures.
You're going to see a little link above that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
You guys can go ahead and smash up the like button.
Smash up the like button if you want BTC to go to $150K.
Smash the like button if you want to see ETH hit $10K. Smash the like button if you want to see to go to 150k smash the like button if you want to see ETH hit 10k smash
the like button if you want to see hype and far coin trade 5x 4x higher from here guys by the end
of the summer by the end of the summer go ahead and smash up that like button and of course guys
please please please smash up the repost and retweet button smash up that repost button as it does a number of things
as it does a number of things that greatly help us out it really puts us on the algorithm so we
can get more eyes and ears towards the brand helps get more people in the show helps grow our audience
and you guys always do such a great job you guys always do such a great job at it and of course if y'all
have anything that you want us to discuss or to look into feel free to type something in the
little chat box below and you know we might touch upon your question right i've always loved to see
what you guys are seeing in the markets anything that you guys want to throw into the conversation.
But nonetheless, I'm going to start it off as always.
I'm going to pass it on over to Donnie.
Donnie, brother, what's going on, man?
You got to love what we're seeing in the equity markets.
It seems like yesterday where it was me and you against a bunch of tried- bros being shooken up because the S&P was
trading at like 52, 5300. And we don't even trade stocks, which is like the crazy part,
to be honest. And there's not a single stock that's related to crypto right now, outside of probably some random Asian stock
like Metaplanet or something like that,
that's up over 2x, right?
Hood's been doing fantastic.
I think you called the top of gold as well
and the shift of the narrative from gold back into BTC. And man, we're seeing a lot of good tailwinds for the market.
The Trump announcement of the acquisition,
we have states here in the US
about to start their strategic reserve in BTC.
We are actually witnessing people in mass with big money
flood into the space and at some point of course it probably trickles down to our alts man so
i guess we can start off with that man but how are you doing and thanks for coming back on the show
i'm sure it's going to be uh another uh explosive another explosive discussion here hey bro i hope you had a good weekend as well
um yeah glad to be back talking about markets again the weekend was nice for me as well just
mostly chilling and uh doing a little bit more research on kind of what's going on
i'd missed a couple of things um which you know trump had said uh recently actually you know just
more things actually um covering sort of like stealth QE basis
which is pretty crazy but yeah we kind of just have to understand where the market is at right
now it's interesting even for me to just see BTC at 110k right before a very big liquidity expansion
globally which is literally like cemented in stone at the moment. It's just crazy to see.
But yeah, I wrote a little bit of a short thread yesterday.
And I'll just go over it a little bit now.
You guys can read it in your own time a little bit more in depth.
I won't drag on too long over this stuff.
But yeah, basically, from the bottom,
well, what led to the bottom was essentially the Trump administration wanting to show fiscal responsibility and wanting to take that, shrinking the deficit,
the trade deficit with all these countries, that doge and all this kind of stuff.
They were pushing kind of that Main Street First narrative, which obviously was the detox period,
sort of correction period that Scott Besson had
mentioned, right? So, you know, we kind of knew that, and this is the thing, you need to pay
attention to what these people are saying, because they literally, you know, run the game, right?
When they were initially talking about that plan, they were saying how they want to
soft land the plane, they don't want to crash the plane. So what does that
tell you? It tells you that if this gets ugly, we're going to revert out of this plan. So when
it did get ugly, that's when we were like, okay, we're waiting for the reversal. We can see
reversal patterns on the charts. And a bunch of forward-looking data like the DXY and Global M2
are telling us that liquidity is ready. This thing takes about three months to actually appear
in charts like BTC and stuff like that.
So even tactically from the bottom, we're waiting for a bounce.
And let's see what they say when things continue to get uglier and uglier.
They flip the script. Now all of a sudden they're pro markets,
pro growth, and they're pushing hard to essentially accelerate
growth, which is their actual words, so that they can grow out of this debt. Now, that's actually a
huge playbook reversal. So on this post, you can see I posted a chart in that second slide.
It's basically a chart that just to dumb it down as simply as possible.
You're going to need 6.6% nominal GDP to hold the debt to GDP ratio constant,
which you've heard Scott Besson say that they essentially want to outgrow the debt.
So their debt to GDP ratio stays constant.
their debt to GDP ratio stays constant.
They can kind of grow out of this thing, right?
They can kind of grow out of this thing, right?
But 6.6% GDP in recent history,
let's take it from the dot-com bubble till now,
you've only seen that three times,
which was the dot-com bubble itself,
the housing bubble before the massive crash in 2008,
and the COVID stimulus bubble,
which just everything went up
because there was just way too much money printing going on.
So each time that they've tried to push or that nominal GDP has hit those numbers, you've had a very crazy asset bubble,
which if you're looking at today's time, what's the asset that they're mostly wanting to push and focus on?
wanting to push and focus on.
So if they're trying to hit numbers
that have led to an asset bubble in the past
and they've got a strategic Bitcoin reserve,
they're wanting to market this thing to the world,
BlackRock is also doing the marketing.
You're setting up for a very big liquidity expansion
because to hit those numbers,
you're going to need a whole lot of stimulus.
And then they've also verified the stimulus
by telling us that they want to do treasury
They want to take off the SLR exemptions.
This is the part where I actually missed the Fannie and Freddie May going public, which
is essentially a company that's in the government's control.
They're wanting to pretty much put them in the public sector so that they're able to leverage
the equity that they have which is around like 150 billion i was reading something like that
they're legally allowed to leverage at 33x to basically help with the mortgage-backed securities
market right which is essentially the long end of the curve 10-year yields and up which these are
the things that are blowing out right now which which, you know, that equates to like four trillion in stealth QE that potentially can be tapped into. So however you're looking at
this, they're wanting to do a ton of liquidity injections or creation of fiat units through the
treasury. Plus, you know, they're pushing hard for growth, deregulation, all this kind of stuff,
tax cuts, and the main event seemingly being crypto while Btc is at 110k like it's just a very crazy
setup because of how high we already are in price how much accumulation has occurred since the etf
a bunch of other factors that you know it's pretty exciting um i think the market right now is
essentially waiting to see if they actually uh go through with you know these slr exemptions which
scott besant had actually mentioned. He wants to get
them done over summer. And obviously, summer is very near. So I think that can be a very big
trigger because it's genuine liquidity injections, right? It's a thing that's actually going to move
the market and help stabilize bonds. So outside of all of that, you've now got a very big shift
in where money wants to flow to because of what's going on with these bond markets globally and kind of this push that the United States is doing to essentially try and grow out of this debt.
It's an environment where monetary inflation is very persistent.
So you're not going to be wanting to hold bonds and USD.
You're going to be wanting to hold bonds and USD, you're going to be wanting
to hold hedges against that. So you know, the top hedges right now, especially the one that's being
marketed by the United States and BlackRock is Bitcoin. So it's a very crazy setup for a big
macro trend shift, where, you know, demand for these assets is going to be massive, plus they're
pushing or wanting to push 6% or 6.6% GDP on top of all of
this with all of the other things that they've got planned. So it's pretty crazy. Like the setup that
we have, right? Massive stimulus globally, all bond markets need liquidity. The weak dollar comes
in to play a role in that. And they're going to start essentially doing stimulus through the treasury in the United States. So you're kind of setting
up for a long road ahead and one that could essentially lead into this crypto bubble.
So I don't know, for me, it's super exciting. And I think the hardest part of the market is
already done, which was the shakeout. And now we just kind of let this unfold uh over the next you know three
to 12 months or however long it lasts could last even longer uh and see what we get from it but
yeah bitcoin's sitting at a very nice spot it's pretty much trading around prior all-time highs
being accepted up there quite nicely again you've got little distribution patterns and stuff on the
low time frames but all of that doesn't really matter with what kind of a backdrop we have, which I kind of just explained. So I don't know, I'm waiting
for a weekly close above 120k on BTC. Maybe this week, maybe next week, who knows when it comes.
But I think when that does happen, it's going to be pretty hard to stop the momentum from there
in the entire market. So yeah, there just um a lot of things to be excited about
there's not really uh too much more to add on top of all the wine dear ladies and gentlemen
what we are in store for is something that has only been seen three times as donnie has mentioned
the dot-com bubble which by the way guys the inflation adjusted all-time high for
the mcnasdaq given its uh all-time high in 1999 which was 6 000 right for inflation adjusted
the nasdaq uh would be at 30 000 right we haven't even come close to that. So if this actually does come to pass, and we have these trillions of stealth QE coming into the market, as Donnie says, through Antti and Fannie Mae.
I've heard of that entity before. I think Grant has mentioned them as well, since he works in real estate and all that stuff.
But nonetheless, guys, the market is going to absolutely shock people in a massive way.
people in a massive way and donnie honestly we can even say that you know what we saw in 2020 and
2021 that wasn't even a cycle that was not a proper cycle it was just a ton of money rushing
into the same assets and it was it was basically like inflating a balloon but instead of using uh an an air pump or something
like that um you used tornado winds and if you take a look at something like the uh ark invest
stock it blew up in eight months the top happened within eight to nine months,
and it's never come back. But this time around, it is a more gradual injection of stimulus,
which of course leads to higher valuations, higher consumer confidence, I guess a better short-term
economy. More people can get invested into the asset class.
And there is a ton of things to be excited about, man.
Truly, truly, truly there is.
And guys, I do want to apologize.
On Friday, we weren't able to host a show.
X rugged on Friday and continued to rug on saturday and sunday notifications were down
um the visibility of tweets across the board were down spaces were down it was just absolutely
awful i have uh no idea what went on so apologies for that guys but we're officially back, and I hope Elon truly does fix this app, man.
But yeah, Donnie, man, I tell you, I think the normal cycle that people have been begging to get for a while is going to happen.
And the market weeds itself out.
Weeds itself. The words are escaping me today man but the market weeds out uh the losers quite quickly uh within these within these names in the
all coin market but i think with uh with far coin hype suey i think really like someone has like 10k
or something like that they can make a pretty good
bag just holding those names honestly and not so much like trenching right i mean trenching probably
does come back in a big way once eth goes into price discovery that's just me though man
so actually i had a question for donnie and by the way, Donnie, dude, when you were talking on,
like, I think it was made spaces. I was listening to you and Wabi and you guys were just talking
about how we're about to have this massive breakout. I was literally watching markets
and like the next couple of days, like I even, I even put a tweet about it a couple of days ago.
That was wild. Right. So, you know, coming from just a guy who just, you know, me personally, right. I'm,
I'm always, I'm always just, uh, in it for a swing trade and I'm just, you know, typically holding
and trying to do something sort of defy, right. To just increase using alts to increase my ETH and
BTC bags. Right. So something that I find kind of interesting right now, right. Is I'll be honest,
right. I was, I was pretty much sidelined up until about the time you and Wabi were talking about it's about a breakout,
right, and I set a couple longs, and I got stopped, lost out, and I'm looking back to just go back in
and going with my gains, and I'm trying to think about me as kind of more of an ETH maxi. I'm trying to think about ETH and like just the market in general around ETH.
Because I'm hearing like that star strategy.
They're doing like some sort of micro strategy for ETH, some sort of company that came in and like the co-founder of ETH came in.
And I'm just trying to figure out, as I'm sure that like all the other 400 people listening in is like, you know, what, what are, what
are we looking for in terms of like, like, and you kind of already mentioned it now,
but like, what, what are we really looking for, for an ETH breakout outside of BTC?
I know as most of a lot of people here might, might be from like the class of 2020, just
So, uh, I'm just,. So I'm asking that question.
Where do you see us, man, honestly?
Where do I see us with ETH?
I made a post the other day.
It's literally kind of like the old season trigger
And it's basically just, and you can't rule out BTC out of this equation.
It's part of the equation.
It's the leader of the whole ecosystem.
So it needs to cross certain levels,
you have a 1.618 fib at 130K on BTC.
You don't actually need to close that high
on a weekly close for it to be a range break of that high.
It needs to be above 120.
So I want to see BTC above 120, but I just know when it does start to push above that
1.618, there's a big gap from there to about like 165, which if that psychologically enters
market participants' heads of, whoa, BTC is actually going for a parabolic run.
People are going to feel like they missed a lot of the move and all this kind of stuff.
Just like how you said, a lot of people are actually sidelined. There's people who are now entering the market, hedging against what's coming, which essentially
is the inflationary playbook that Trump and the administration are running.
So they're only just wanting to enter the market now.
They're going to be looking at the entire ecosystem,
which I think ETH is going to catch a major bid.
So you need 120 to 130k BTC.
You need ETH BTC above 0.03,
which is actually looking really good.
I think on that leg up for BTC, it's going to happen.
Bitcoin dominance below 58.5 and ETH to break 34,400.
And I think you're pretty much going to zip up
to new all-time highs on ETH if you get all of that.
And then a bonus on top of that is DXY losing 97.8,
which I think it will over the next two to four weeks
just to further unlock a larger rally
just based on what it will do for global liquidity.
And I'm sure we'll see a bunch of stimulative packages coming out
from all of these economies that are struggling with their bond markets.
So that's basically the trigger.
130k BTC, 0.03 ETH BTC, 58% Bitcoin dominance, and 3440 ETH USD.
Yeah, no, appreciate that, man.
And I mean, it gets more to this other question as well.
Have you seen this whole deal with the Sharp Link Gaming?
They announced like half of, I don't know if that was 400 million
or I'm not looking at it right, but like private placement to initiate.
I think they're trying to just buy ETH.
They're trying to run the micro strategy strategy.
But on ETH, I'm wondering, is that narrative already being cooked up now?
And is that priming subconsciously people to enter ETH,
not only just because of unit bias, right?
Because obviously people aren't really going to be entering Bitcoin right now.
They might be, but the unit bias,
especially for newer guys,
when they look at something that's cheap versus something that's like 120K, 130K Bitcoin, hopefully in the next two or three weeks.
But do you see that right now yourself?
Because I'm looking at that and my timeline has been filling up with people posting about how the co-founder of Ethereum just came in and he's literally coming into starting up this
micro strategy of ETH type of deal. Yeah, I guess that'll be a sweetener on top of everything, but I'm thinking of it very simply as in people are going to rush to this market as a hedge
against monetary inflation, very weak dollar bond markets are blowing out. They need to create more
money to support that. People are going to rush in with allocation distributions. So let's say I've got billions
of dollars or whatever. I want to enter BTC because we're entering a very different landscape
and a macro trend. They're going to have, let's say, 90% allocation to BTC, 10% into ETH. They're
just going to pick the second largest coin that's been around the longest and just bid it. And as BTC gets more and more overheated, there will just be rotations out
of BTC into the second thing below it, and then the third thing below it, and so on and so forth.
It's just like a trickle down economics thing that will happen. It literally doesn't matter
what the ticker is, as long as it's number one and number two, because they have so much liquidity
that needs to go into this market
that they're not going to pick something
that's in the top 10 over the second pick
because everything will go up in that environment.
So regardless of the narratives that they can push,
which I'm sure they will,
there will be plenty of narratives
that will come out for ETH at the right times,
whether it's the thing that you're talking about,
whether it's X company just levered to do whatever with ETH,
the narrative doesn't matter.
It'll always support the price directional bias.
And I just think it's just going to absorb a ton of liquidity
because the environment's just going to be extremely risk-on.
At the sake of sounding like I'm shilling for Donnie here,
guys, I just asked two totally different
questions and this guy totally just answered it with the same thing this guy is a man with a plan
and i see why wabi's got him up here i've been i've been enjoying it so much by the way donnie
not to uh not to fanboy too much but i've been enjoying the feedback from both you guys over
the past couple weeks so uh it's it's good to hear it's good to hear i appreciate it that's why they're
called emergency spaces and with exclusive updates that's and that's that that's not cap man these
this these are emergency spaces with exclusive and urgent updates that you need to be urgent
because there are very few times in your life where you can capitalize on this.
If you miss .com, you had to wait all the way until 2009, 2010 to buy assets.
And most people were probably scared.
So you probably had to wait until 2012, 2013 for the real meat of the move to start within the
market and of course there's covid so there's only been a few key moments over the last couple
of decades where people can really capitalize on these massive upswings and if you miss it
that's basically lost time and markets allow you to buy time.
Whenever you see your P&L, right, that is time.
That is time that you buy for yourself and your loved ones.
So that's why it's urgent, right? So if people miss out on the melt-up or they don't apply themselves to be exposed to the melt-up in any degree,
or they don't apply themselves to be exposed to the melt-up in any degree,
then they could very well experience dire consequences
that could lead to catastrophic,
to absolutely catastrophic, abysmal PTSD.
So, that's just the truth. That is just the truth. Like
FOMO can lead to PTSD like nothing else. So especially when you know the pump is coming,
but you failed to recognize the pump, right? You fail to recognize the pump. The market right now is 2015
Eddie Hall, okay? The market right now is 2015 Eddie Hall. And I know everyone in here knows who
Eddie Hall is, so don't say, oh, why is a crypto bro talking about this dude called Eddie Hall? No, I'm sure every 415 individuals listening on here, right?
Know who Eddie Hall is. The market right now is 2015 Eddie Hall, and he is training to lift half a ton.
Okay, so without further ado, Matt, I saw you come off mute brother what's going on man
dude hey hood new all-time high
you there matt yeah that was exciting that That happened. Pretty sweet.
Yeah, what's not to be excited about?
Bitcoin's finally broken out.
Plus 50%, 40% in less than a month.
In about a little, maybe over a month.
But it's a long time coming you know that that last range just like 2023 2024 um that was that was tough that was uh another negative 30 percent drawdown
correction almost 200 days of consolidation and it tested a lot of uh tested a lot of people, tested a lot of newcomers and OGs alike.
One thing that I think is going to mean less and less,
but people mention when they found Bitcoin,
when they got in Bitcoin.
What that doesn't say, though,
is how convicted you are.
And this last drawdown, I was shocked.
We don't have to go through the names,
but I was shocked at the OGs, supposedly,
Literally, 80K, 78K, below 77K, and they're out.
And just the idea of going back to 2024 prices or worse, it was too much.
But, you know, I feel like this is the price you pay.
This is the reason why I stay tuned in and keep coming back.
tuned in and keep coming back um because uh not to not to beat the old dead horse but you wabi and
donnie and i we've been talking all winter and spring long about how look broader market looks
great and unless the orange man in the oval decides to kill the bull market and he came close
but unless he decided to just flat out kill it,
this was a beautiful buying opportunity.
And sure enough, he blinked and away we ran.
So I remember in 2023 and 2024,
I was pretty bearish for seasonality reasons
going into late April, into May.
And I was like, guys, 2023 and 2024 has been up only.
This has been a red hot bull market.
We haven't had a correction in X amount of months.
Don't be surprised for a 20% correction.
Don't be surprised for a summer slump.
I am exactly opposite of that this year.
We got our correction. We got our deleveraging. We got our
correction. We got our almost 200 days of consolidation. This is not the time to start
getting cautious and scared. If there's any sort of pullback post-Bitcoin conference hype,
that's an extra buying opportunity. But don't expect anything big like a negative 12 or negative 20 or certainly not a negative 30
percent pullback it maybe you get a retest of 106 or 105 or something like that but that's a it'll
be a quick wick if that um this is um just a really nice setup beautiful Beautiful. I see us going into a stair step, honestly, throughout the rest of spring into the summer.
And then as soon as we hit fall, I would not be surprised if we get some exponential moves,
a possible blow off top in mid to late fall.
And we can go into reasons why I think, like last year we had a rounded top.
Excuse me, last cycle we had a rounded top.
Technically we had almost two rounded tops.
But this cycle, I think we might have a blow up top.
And we can talk about that later.
But I'm saying 150 or greater fall 2025.
Well, Matt, if you notice,
anytime BTC has had these brutal sell-offs, right,
August of 23, that's one.
August of 24, usually, whenever prices double from that, we usually chill out for a little bit
so we bottomed that 73 74 if we hit 150 it's probably going to chill out a little bit
but for a blow off top pattern to happen btc would have to rally from these levels to like 250
BTC would have to rally from these levels to like 250 within a,
it doesn't have to be like,
gold just had a blow off top and gold's a what?
It had a thousand day up only rallyonly rally into a blow-off top.
In which I was tweeting out real-time, like, watch out here.
And it sure enough happened.
But, like, yeah, Bitcoin can absolutely have a proper blow-off top in the mid to high 100Ks.
Ah, that's what you mean. Okay. all right yeah i know i know what you're thinking
like i know if you're when you're staring at like 100 million or 1 billion market cap alt
coins all day like a blow up top to me very different things but i meant bitcoin um but
i mean if bitcoin is a blow off top i don't even know what that means for altcoins it could be
matt is this stupid ridiculous is this meta planet thing worth buying or is it just like us oh hell no no no no what's up with that i mean you're gonna see this this is so this is my thesis of
why we're gonna have a blow off top because you've got not one not two not three but like what half a
dozen bitcoin treasury companies that they don't
even pretend like they have an operating business like record strategy they got their whole their
whole uh mission is uh accounting hijinks uh to sell shares sell debt to buy bitcoin it's like
they don't even there there is no actual business business. It's just like,
you know, we've got a, we've got a chat GPT subscription and a couple of accountants,
and we're just gonna, we're just gonna leverage the shit out of this TradFi market. And good on
them, you know, good for them. You do you. But what I think that causes is, I think we're going
to have a pretty exciting bull market
and actually have a blow off top this time.
That sounds pretty base, honestly.
Like you're raising money from investors and you're just saying, man, we don't have a product
We're just going to buy Bitcoin with the money that we raise.
But it works as long as everything's in a bull market.
It works as long as the number is going up.
Because, okay, Bitcoin price goes up, great.
So more people pile into strategy, pile into 21 Capital, pile into Nakamoto and MetaPlanet.
And then so their share price goes up.
So then they can buy a bigger bag of Bitcoin,
You know, it's a flywheel that just feeds on itself.
The only problem happens is when you start going
from a nice steady stair step up in Bitcoin price
into a exponential rise, blow off top looking
thing in Bitcoin price. Then so price is running away faster than buyers can support it. And you
know what happens there, like eventually, you're going to have a correction. And as soon as that
correction happens, the smart money is going to well, I know if Bitcoin corrects by 10% or 20%, I mean, strategy, Metaplanet, Nakamoto, 21 Capital, all these other leverage plays, they're going to correct by 40, 50, maybe 60%.
So they'll dump the leverage stuff.
And maybe they'll just buy Bitcoin or maybe they'll go to stable coins.
But anyway, long story short, these leverage plays on Bitcoin, they truly do nothing except just buy more Bitcoin.
I think they're going to grant us, give us a blow off the cycle.
Donnie, what does that mean for Farcoin, man?
Well, I'll say this, bro.
If everything I'm thinking of lines up from here,
which already the hardest part, again, is out of the way,
and we are entering into a highly inflationary setup globally,
BTC, the main beneficiary of that,
the fastest moving horse,
the thing that's marketed by US government
the fact that they're starting
it just tells me that it's going to last
way longer than people think.
It could even last as long as the entirety of 2026.
So all the way up until their midterms, for example.
And some confluence to that doesn't have to be the exact same,
but if we're talking about the dot-com bubble, let's say,
I shared in the Nest the 1998 similar sort of big shakeout
before the final topping formation in the SPX. And you can see it's actually played
out pretty much exactly like 2025, right? We're steadily approaching the highs. This is the stock
market again. So I'm trying to give you guys the image in your head of how this could play out for
BTC. But after that shakeout, which technically we just had, the SPX actually went through a
like 650 to 700 day topping formation, which, you know, it continuously is putting in slightly
higher highs throughout that whole time, but staying up at those highs. And, you know,
obviously people are distributing supply at the highs for 700 days. That's almost two years that you were in that very euphoric
state. So think about BTC being in a similar sort of scenario where maybe it doesn't last two years,
the topping formation. You'll first have a very fast ascension, let's say, to like 200k plus,
maybe even 250, 300k before you go through this big topping formation,
a distribution. That distribution, right? Just like the last cycle, how we had that rounded top
when people are rotating out of BTC into the altcoin market, that period, however long that
lasts, let's say it lasts even six months. That's where altcoins go absolutely ballistic. And like
the entire world that's participating in crypto is max euphoric.
Everyone has a smile on their face.
They're all making money before it all comes crashing down, of course.
But it can last a very long time is what I'm saying.
And most people from what I can see right now, especially on crypto Twitter,
they're drawing little lines at 120, 130, 135, and they're keen to exit.
They don't see the bigger macro trend shift, right? So it's a very interesting setup where
people are actually keen to get out when nothing has actually happened yet. And they're about to
announce the bazooka money printer to send this thing flying higher for longer. So yeah,
super interesting setup. And if you do get what I just said,
like a long distribution phase
at super high prices on BTC
where the whole world gets drawn in,
they're marketing this thing,
those disgusting valuations on alts.
shit like that. So I hope we get that.
You know, that's not me calling for that. I'm just saying if things keep aligning how they have
been aligning, this is like, it's already aligning more bullish than I thought. But if it keeps
aligning like this, it will get disgustingly out of hand and it will turn into a bubble.
and it will turn into a bubble ladies and gentlemen if you are all enjoying this insane
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with the yellow check mark matt what's going on man you know me wabi you know that i'm always
with the uh conservative price target i'm always probably on the lower end of the bulls.
But I'm just reminded of last year in the summer
where I was saying, look, I see 100K by New Year's Day.
And everyone else was talking crazy numbers
when we finally got out of the summer doldrums.
We barely eked out 100K by Christmas, 100K by New Year's
Day, and then obviously fell right back below it. So yeah, I'm with Donnie. All these bears
pretending to be bulls saying, okay, I'm going to take profits at 120 or I'm going to get out
at 130. No, no. I see 150 minimum in fall 2025.
There's just so much good happening.
And if you remember again, Wabi, when we were over a year ago, over a year ago, we were
talking like at 50, 60K, I was saying like, look, I think we can get a triple from here.
Like, look, I think we can get a triple from here.
But I think that we've got to be cautious going into May, going into the Bitcoin conference in 2025.
Like, seasonality, there's a historic precedence to this.
Come on, it's the third year, the four-year cycle, all that stuff.
But no, we fortunately, well, depending on how you look at it, but we got a big correction
from the Trump administration ahead of time. We flushed all that leverage out of the system.
We flushed all those people who were leveraged long, who'd buy on margin, couldn't handle the
volatility. They all sold. They're all out. We got a correction
and consolidation ahead of time. So now is the absolute wrong time to start getting scared
in late spring and into the summer. We had summer doldrums in 2022, 2023, 2024. This is not going to
repeat the same way, though. Not this time. You just had a massive consolidation and sell-off in broader markets, too.
It wasn't like it was just Bitcoin.
Look at all the blue chips, et cetera, et cetera.
What you won't see on the charts is they all knocked their earnings out of the park.
They all are making money hand over fist.
They all got exemptions for this tariff or that,
pauses for this or that, exclusions for this or that. And the labor market is strong too.
Maybe we'll even get some Dixie weakness love that Donnie's talking about. There's just a lot
of reasons you need to stay long right here. We are barely a couple thousand out of the breakout of this Bitcoin consolidation.
And people are talking about taking chips off the table.
It's like some people deliberately want to experience the dire consequences that we've been speaking about.
that we've been speaking about.
And that's a really real thing.
And that's a really real thing.
And it's really odd to know how people think it's a troll or it's a joke.
If you have the chance to be exposed to these markets, you have to do so.
And in a big way, because the window of opportunity is very small,
given the velocity on how these asset prices
move, right? And we saw how quickly things can move just even a couple of months ago before the
election, right, in October. The higher low we set at 58K within six weeks, BTC was at 108.
That's insane, right? That's insane insane you didn't have much time to buy that
higher low you you just did not you didn't at all whatsoever even more recently 73 to 111
you barely had time to accumulate from from 75 to 78 we had knock on the show and a few of the trad five bros
and suits basically say like oh paul tudor jones is saying that new lows are are incoming uh
something about the bonds or or whatever is is breaking like what what what are we waffling about what are we waffling about that's what you have to ask
yourself sometimes and really the answer of what whenever someone says why should asset prices go
up sometimes the best answer is because they went down a lot. That's it, right?
Again, when you have the indices, guys, as we've been mentioning,
go down to such a huge degree in such a quick amount of time
and asset prices across the board are mimicking their 2022 drawdowns,
they just have to go back up.
It's part of the flywheel Ponzanomic protocol that the stock market is right now.
Like Do Kwon's great-great-great-grandfather is in charge of the stock market.
And Jerome Powell is like a geriatric senior version of CZ in the future.
So that's really what I have to say about that.
But Donnie, you posted something up on the Nest, man,
if you want to touch upon that.
It was just what I was talking about earlier
about the distribution phase on the dot-com bubble.
If you try and shorten it as much as possible,
it was basically like 630 days,
but it lasted as long as 700 and something days long. So people usually get scared about the word
distribution because they think it just means your bags are going to nuke. But actually,
throughout that period, like I just explained, is typically where the bags that you hold,
your altcoins, tend to perform the best just because of those trickle-down economics from BTC into the rest of the market.
And I personally believe that to get the actual exit liquidity entering the market,
aka euphoric market participants who are not even aware of crypto at the moment,
I just think you're going to need to go higher because we're at $110K and no one really cares or knows.
I just think you're going to need to go higher because we're at 110k and no one really cares or knows.
I think somewhere above 150 is where people are going to start raising their eyebrows.
And I'd go as far as to say is probably no one will even care about ETH until it breaks the all-time high.
And then all of a sudden, the tech is good again.
So I think we have to go a lot higher to get that euphoria to start to creep into the market.
And that's where you can start building your distribution phase at higher prices i believe and like this picture
like this chart shows it can last a very long time if you've got you know turbo stimulus
uh globally right we've got the greatest correlation to global liquidity uh with btc
We've got the greatest correlation to global liquidity with BTC out of anything else.
And, you know, it's that trend shift going from, well, to hedge against this persistent monetary inflation.
That's currently, you know, our current environment, which, you know, it's BTC gold.
And I still think stocks will recover as well because it's a risk on bid.
But I think there will be a rotation out of stocks
into these, mainly into like BTC and gold after this or cash.
But I think they're going to go through potentially repricing
to the downside after this cycle.
But like that's way too far down the line.
A lot more needs to unfold for that. But that's way too far down the line.
A lot more needs to unfold for that.
But I think they will also get a heavy distribution out of that sector this cycle.
Man, what an absolute cook, Sash.
This is absolutely fantastic.
Matt, Afro, anything else that you want to add?
Do you want to add something to the conversation?
Or do you guys feel like this is a nice place to wrap up today's stream?
It's a pretty good place. I did want to talk with you, Wabi,
see what your thoughts were on the AI meta, see if we're coming back on that or not.
Because we never really got to talk about it last time.
I had to step away from some family stuff so honestly i think for ai um i think it
comes back in a big way in q4 um specifically when the iwm goes crazy into price discovery
i think that's going to be the the next wave And honestly, virtuals is probably like...
That's exactly what I was going to say.
Yeah, virtuals is probably like the...
Virtuals is what Luna wishes it could have been,
but without the Ponzanomics of the UST stuff, right?
Imagine Luna, but with no risk, right?
Imagine a product that could
actually go to valuations um sat by luna uh with some stratified confluence right like luna's
stratified confluence was low-cap tech stocks right kathy wood was making a ton of money and
when kathy wood makes money it's cheap
to borrow capital when it's cheap to borrow capital vcs can use a lot of the checks that they write
for you know d5 stuff for crypto so i'm kind of thinking like Q4, something like that.
Yeah, there's still a lot of really good teams that are building.
I think that's kind of been the consensus among the people that I've been talking with.
There's a lot of people just trying to catch up on, you know, DeFi AI or DeFi or however the hell you want to call it.
Yeah, that was like the the, of the AI stuff,
and they didn't really get too much time to shine.
Cause it still kind of hasn't been fully cracked yet.
like they literally like just took a bet and just like sprayed and prayed and it kind of
worked out for them. But, uh, you know, ever since then they've kind of been like radio silent and,
you know, that's kind of just how it goes with these metas that you'll get a lot of people who
come in to just, you know, ride the wave and extract max value as much as you can. And then,
um, there's a lot of people who are just, you know, building on the sidelines, but, uh, I'm,
I'm kind of with you on the consensus. I'm seeing a little bit more people come out and talk about um and talk a little
bit more about ai but that's i'm just putting my ear to the ground and just seeing you know where
where everybody's at or anything like that yeah man i i hope it comes back it was pretty fun
when it when it popped it was it was super fun that was probably the the most fun like
two and a half-ish months
I had. Also super stressful.
I did my own thing as well.
We popped off to an 8-fig market
Never had something like that happen in my
perfect storm. You know what I mean?
have an echo bubble of that um i mean the
more new stuff that happens it kind of incentivizes people to go broader onto the risk curve and all
of that um but i'm just glad that we still have the same leaders leading right your four coins your hypes and all that stuff yep and not something
that acts like a liquidity vampire attack like a trump coin thank god we haven't had any tokens
like that since libra like libra was the death of a of a bull market to be honest and i think
i think we started a new bull market uh last in early April when we hit 73, 74 and
Because even with Seoul, right, like Solana price action hasn't really been the same over
the last couple of weeks compared to previous bottoms.
You don't really have the crazy
pump funds anymore and you have other it was the end of an era yeah i would say it was the end of
an era yes there there's the casino is still around but it's it's just not the same soul died
soul's dead it needs a new uh it needs a new um story it needs new leadership so there's a couple things
um and i'm i will say with the caveat that i i know who's building it and he's a good builder
um but there's have you seen the loudio they're they're connected with kaido a um api you just
kind of connect your soul wallets kaido's api
and they're basically trying to like i know one aspect i don't know the entire thing yet just because he's very hush about it at all but they're getting a lot of like uh you know major ct guys
you know ox win moon i know he's on that um they have like a top 100 leader board where i think
they're just trying to like see who's shilling and who's being the loudest and kind of like socializing social media.
And they're like using Kaido AI to leverage.
They're using their technology to leverage that.
I think it's going to be kind of interesting because they'll be paying out.
I think they'll be paying out in Seoul.
So I've signed up on that, but I don't tweet very often at all.
I mostly just lurk, but just kind of there to support a friend's project.
I think you might want to be looking at that.
Yeah, I follow this one guy called ICOBeast.
But, hey, man, if it creates an airdrop opportunity, then by all means.
It is an airdrop opportunity, senor.
you guys heard it here first tommy was really pushing um hyper liquid for the hype airdrop for
like years man tommy has been using hyper liquid since like 2023 and i mean if anyone has been
using if anyone used hyper liquid in 2023 all the way up until
TGE you got a you got like multiple salaries yeah yeah you didn't even have to trade a lot
I mean you had maybe like five figures worth of trading which it's yeah you know it's not a lot
you know you can do that in a bear market pretty quickly yeah um they probably
round too like a second round of airdrops that's why i'm i'm trying to use uh oh you know what i
do have some alpha here i do have a little bit of alpha here um so you know dolomite right they do uh lending and borrowing yeah lending and borrowing so cory caplan i've
met him at eath denver super super smart guy really good dude um he's actually the technical
advisor for world liberty fi and they just moved their um their lp from uh you know dolo usd to dolo usd one and i saw um that literally after
they announced it it shot up maybe about like 30 now i have caveat there as well i have a not a
fat bag uh from from dolomite from their airdrop because i farmed the
heck out of it but i have heard through the grapevine that um because it's already happened
with that some other some other token on bsc that switched their uh lp from usd to usd1
basically world liberty fi went and bought a chunk of this token granted
this other token which is called like it's called like uh the cash tag is you know b it shot up like
700 percent and i'm not saying this would happen on on dolomite but that that only happened on b
because it had a very low liquidity and it was like a meme coin. But they just bought a big chunk of it,
and that thing ended up mooning to $200 million.
But Dolomite's already, I think, eight, maybe nine fig FDV.
So there might be an opportunity there if World Liberty Fly announces.
So I wouldn't be surprised if they're doing some sort of OTC
or some sort of direct market buy on there.
So you also heard that here.
I think I'm going to wrap up now, man.
Donnie, is there anything else that you want to add on before I wrap up the stream?
I think we're good here now, man.
So, guys, I want to thank you all so much for
tuning in i want to thank afro i want to thank donnie want to thank matt want to thank chill
for coming on up here i see you guys requesting up to speak i usually bring people up to speak
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So I'm going to go ahead and play a song for the outro,
found something. I'm going to go to the next episode. I go. Ooh.
At home, we're going pictures of Malcadals. Oh and pulls our world We are only falling out of the city
We are only falling out of the city
Clearly I remember picking on the boys Seemed a humble in his little boy
But we unleashed the lion
And as his teeth and victories as ladies breast
And he hit me with his surprise last
But all after him Right now, what's all I have to do?
I don't know why I went, just like the day.
And I'm like, what's up there?
That's why we really win. I'm a boy, but something that might be worth it
It's been a long time. It's been a long time. Oh Thank you. Oh 3, 4, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the pan.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the pan.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the pan. Hello everyone. Hello everyone. Hello everyone.
Hello everyone. Hello everyone. Thank you. up