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Market talk : #BITCOIN SMASHES 71k!! NEW HIGHS INCOMING? Alt season!?
Recorded: June 4, 2024 Duration: 1:05:19Space Recording
Full Transcription
Hope everyone's okay.
Hope you've all had a fantastic Tuesday.
Man, first things first, right?
Let's touch upon crypto, right?
We've got BNB, the largest centralized exchange premier token, hitting an all-time high today.
Do you know what this means, guys?
Do you have any idea what this means for all coins?
We take a look back at quarter two of 2019.
You take a look back in DeFi summer, right?
The summer of 2020.
Take a look at Q1 2021.
Anytime BNB goes on a tear and breaks its all-time high, that's basically a signal.
That's a huge bat signal that a huge influx of retail is officially coming into the market.
They're interested.
BNB price goes up.
That means there's dubious speculation to be on centralized exchanges.
So you guys know if you hold the native BNB token, you get reduction on fees.
And, of course, there's also incentive to participate in Binance launchpad pools and all that stuff
or new tokens that are going to be launched and all that jazz.
And, listen, man, I don't think anybody is ready.
I think, you know, this mentality of sell a man, go away, and not paying attention to the market and touching grass,
I think a lot of that has psyoped a lot of the participants that took place in Q1
and took place in, you know, things like Say, Tia, Dime, all those are the VC tokens.
And the remaining people in the market were individuals that, you know, only cared about memes.
And truth be told, guys, like, there's not much happening in the crypto AI sector,
which has honestly come as a shock to me, man.
I would have thought that, at the very least, outside of memes, AI would catch a bid.
I mean, you're getting care, right?
My pet hooligan, that's catching somewhat of a bid.
I know they're doing some gaming stuff as well on top of AI,
but, you know, I think that's one of the anomalies when it comes to the VC shitters, right?
And, you know, we've got the ETH ETF, the spot ETH ETF going live later on this week.
Treasury buybacks have started yesterday.
Fed's basically buying $2 billion plus in treasuries.
NVIDIA just, you know, absolutely ripping face.
It's day in, day out, week in, week out.
And, you know, people have been calling tops on NVIDIA for 12 months now.
And, you know, I think once their stock split happens, NVIDIA can practically become the top stock in the equity markets
and remain there, truth be told.
I know Tiger has said, you know, on these spaces that NVIDIA is practically one of the greatest fundamental, you know, assets that one can hold, right?
And it's actually outperformed a lot of tokens over the last 12 months, dude.
Like, if you would have just held NVIDIA over ETH, I think you would have done better holding NVIDIA over Ethereum, which is the problem.
You know, it's not funny.
It's not funny.
So, like, I had, like, trimmed my position in NVIDIA three different times.
And if I had not sold a single share, I mean, like, I've owned NVIDIA for a while, so, like, I mean, every time it always has these parabolic run-ups,
it's always, like, important to, I think, take some off because, like, the peaks and troughs for NVIDIA are, like, really extreme.
So, like, I really think, like, I don't think it's a bad thing for you to trim on the way up, but if I had not sold, like, a single share of NVIDIA throughout this time,
it would have, like, at least in terms of my equity book, it would have been, like, 70% of my entire, like, net worth, basically.
It happens, man.
It happened to me two times last cycle.
It's nuts.
Yeah.
I had 18 million phantom tokens and, like, about, like, 12,000 Luna.
And in between the cycle, I just kept rotating.
And, you know, sometimes, like, it's better to just let your winners ride when the market decides, right?
Like, you know, how many people fumbled Pepe?
You know, that's, like, the number one thing, right?
Or even with, man, or even with, you know, there's something to be said about actually holding through 100x, right?
Or even, like, 20x, 30x, right?
Like, to hold through that kind of volatility, it takes a special mind, right?
Like, even Pepe corrected, like, 65% from its March high down to its April low.
And that was over the course of, like, four weeks, right?
And things were looking pretty grim, right?
Pepe put in that deviation below its high of April of last year, right?
But, you know, going back to the conversation, right?
Going back to the conversation, I just don't think a lot of people are ready.
I think the summer's going to catch a lot of people by surprise.
And by the time they do get in, it's going to be somewhat reminiscent of last summer, right?
Where people said, oh, no, it's over.
But, you know, once things like ROB were, like, over 20 cents, people wanted to come back and bet on hamster racing and all that sort of stuff, right?
Kind of shocked to see, man, once again, that AI stocks, I mean, AI crypto hasn't really done much at all, right?
Like, I haven't...
You mean meme coins?
Yeah, I guess, right?
Like, Tau, Render, right?
I mean, outside of memes, like, the only thing that has really caught a bit...
AI are meme coins, too.
I guess.
AI coins are meme coins, too.
Yeah, they don't really do much, right?
But I know Ando has basically just gone on a steady step up, right?
Like, it's up 5%, 10% every two to three days, you know?
And I think, man, that what people deem as all season, once again, man, it's not really going to look like how it was in 2021 and 2017.
It'll literally just be, like, the same exact stuff that we've seen all year long.
The same handful of tickers and most of the new liquidity that's added onto the market, it's probably going to be from new memes and new tickers.
And, you know, there's something that I've said, man, it's echoing Thickey's thoughts, right?
Like, with a lot of these coins that are out right now, there's just too much supply and not enough demand.
But you do have your anomalies, right?
And I do see some very intelligent people starting to speculate on things like, you know, what if TIA becomes one of the VC tokens that ends up going crazy, right?
And I do think, you know, the things that we saw in Q4 will pump, but that's all contingent, you know, on ETH breaking all-time high this year.
That's when we'll see, like, what the winners of, quote-unquote, this cycle are going to be, right?
The cycle doesn't actually start where we see these wild swings until both ETH and BTC start putting in weekly candles at all-time highs.
And that's kind of the scary part, right?
Like, we don't know how Pepe's going to react, how Ma's going to react, Floki or Andy.
And I have my own thoughts on Andy, man, but I leave that in the Discord.
And I think Max does a way better job than anybody to talk about bullishness on Andy.
But if I were to say my thoughts, dude, I think I'd go to jail or something, man.
And I think there would be, like, an arrest warrant on me, man.
But, you know, those are my opening statements, man.
How about yourself, Tiger?
How are you feeling about the markets now that, you know, we're in the summertime?
Still bullish.
Still bullish, man.
What tickers are you wearing, man?
You can kind of – I mean, I'm still an ondo for a while.
I mean, Bitcoin has kind of always been my biggest position, but I still have a lot of Solana.
Pepe is still a big position.
I mean, I'm not going to rattle off all my positions.
But you can tell by the things I tweet.
One that I've started to accumulate is this one called Core.
Do you know that one?
Is that in crypto or in the stock market?
No, it's in crypto.
What chain is it on?
It's a Bitcoin, EDM thing.
Oh, gosh.
BRC20s.
Oh, man.
Boy, oh, boy, man.
Looks like a –
Gosh, I – I was bullish on that.
I just got cut off.
Say what, Tiger?
No, no, no.
It's fine.
Go ahead.
Okay, okay.
Yeah, I haven't really kept up with BRC20 since, like, March.
I took a small trade on B5, and I cut that for a loss.
And Tucker can tell you, man, I just – I refuse to touch that sector ever again, man.
I'd rather just stick to something that's easy to buy and has an audience versus something where, like, I'm trading it with 20 people, right?
And they're all, like, in a small space with those same 20 people, right?
But, yeah, I have not heard about Core at all.
Or even anything like –
Core is, like –
You know, I think that Bitcoin DeFi is very premature.
But, like, I think that big players want yield on Bitcoin.
And maybe not, like, the hodlers, but, like, more trap-by guys, more guys that are non, like, native want yield.
And, like, this is one of the, like, key plays for that.
The chart looks ready.
So, I don't know.
I'm kind of, like – I'm kind of just staying put for the most part, to be honest with you.
Like, it's the summertime, so you should, like, enjoy the summer.
Like, I don't know.
Like, I mean, no offense.
If you haven't made, like, a lot of money by now, then I don't know what the fuck you're doing.
So, I'm kind of, like, mentally checked out.
Like, I'm doing a few things, but, like, I'm sitting fine.
I don't need to do anything major.
Tucker, what are you up to, man, during this time in the market, man?
BNB hitting all-time high.
I'm going to keep on hammering that home, man, because people won't give a shit about it
until they start seeing their alts.
No, I tweeted that in December.
I said BNB's going all-time highs.
Oh, I was throwing something to Tucker.
I wasn't saying that, you know, you didn't believe that as well, because I know, like,
when we were chatting on those, like, late-night spaces, when Hasaku would tweet about Say,
we were dubiously speculating on BNB.
I think the reason why BNB's going up is because they've been doing a lot of, like,
launchpad work and launching a ton of shitcoins, man.
People forget that FUD is very powerful to the upside.
Yeah, I mean, that's something funny with bull markets in this sector, right?
They call it a wall of worry.
Yeah, like, in 2020, 2021, it's like, who's going to buy these assets when there's a global
pandemic and all that stuff?
But they didn't understand, like, the context of everything, right?
Like, Fed was printing money and all that stuff.
And, you know, what's the reason for why numbers going up in crypto right now?
ETF inflows, for one.
The macro situation looks good.
Liquidity in the equity market, specifically in mega-cap tech, has been doing absolutely
phenomenal for the last 12 months.
And I think, you know, now that we have, you know, a sheet where you can see the numbers
of flows going into the space, I think that's incredibly bullish.
And people are really, really underestimating, man.
Like, I, for one, don't think anybody should, you know, take their eyes off the charts this
summer because, you know, I don't know what happens, man.
Once August hits and the big boys return back to their desks, the volatility in this market
is going to die for almost two months, just as it has every single year, man.
From mid-August to, like, early mid-October, there is nothing to do.
And I know there's a short trade to be made, but a lot of that volatility, a lot of that
expansion to the downside happens within one or two trading sessions that are, like, you
know, five weeks in between each other, right?
Like, you had the August 17th drop last year.
Then you had the rally going to the monthly close.
And then in early September, you had the final drop, right?
So, actually, no, mid-September, excuse me.
And then the market was practically muted.
There was nothing to do except going on Frontech and betting on hamsters, man.
So, I wonder what the version of hamster racing is going to be in the late summer.
Probably some, like, celebrity token, if I were to say.
Probably that, right?
Like, I think with this whole Iggy Aizala thing, right?
The fact that it went to, like, 90 mil, 95 mil, whatever.
Where's it at now?
Let's see.
Yeah, the ticker is mother.
Yeah, I think that's probably going to cause, like, a ripple effect.
And you're probably going to have, like, 100 celebrity tokens where, like, 95 of them.
Here's the thing, though, man, is you don't want them to be celebrity tokens.
You want them to be meme coins.
So, whoever the celebrity is or the famous person, they have to be a meme lord.
They have to be really good.
Like, Roaring Kitty?
Like, if Roaring Kitty had his own meme?
Oh, yeah, man.
Dude.
And there actually are, there actually are, like, Roaring Kitty memes, but they're not by him.
They're by a fucking meme.
Yeah, there was, like, two of our guys in our community that bought Kitty on Soul at, like,
one mil.
There was Kitty.
There was G and Me.
There was Gil.
There was HODL.
There was a bunch of crap.
But, yeah, I think if you're going to be a celebrity and launch what is that face value
as social token, it's going straight to zero.
Jenner is a perfect example of a failed attempt, okay, because Caitlyn Jenner actually had a
perfect setup.
She's a trans woman, and it's Pride Month, right?
So, she could have done a better job of meaning that.
But she did a fucking terror because she's not a meme lord.
She's a fucking whatever.
And she's not even that big of a celebrity.
She's only famous because she got a sex change, and she was married to the fucking Kardashians.
Okay.
So, nobody gives a shit.
Yeah, dude, that was probably, like, the most cringe thing that I saw in the timeline.
And, you know, Bruce was just hammering that post in here on X repeatedly, man, with the
address and everything.
Like, man, how damn bad do you have to be, brother?
You know?
But, you know, I do have a microcap specifically for this time of the year.
But it's a frog.
Maybe like a celebrity token.
But, man, I want to get some words from Big Tuck, man.
Big Country Hagrid, brother.
How are you feeling about everything, man?
I know you've been eyeing base like a hawk.
You've been killing it, by the way, man.
You called Kikat right at range lows at 30 mil, and I faded you.
Once again, proving that this is the Hagrid super cycle.
Not to glaze you too much, brother.
Not to glaze you too much.
Yeah, man.
Well, Tommy found Kikat way before me, and I kind of tailed him into it.
But, yeah, I think the base rotation is, I think it's still early to base, honestly.
I mean, we get the Coinbase smart wallet like this week, I'm pretty sure, or next week, which should allow normies to seamlessly bid shit on chain, which is a big change, obviously, from their Coinbase account.
I'm not sure if that's exactly how it works, but that's what I understand.
And you've got Brett on base hitting a billion.
You got Degen looking good and coiled.
I mean, if you have the big names on the chain looking good or hitting all-time highs, then usually that's going to trickle down to microcaps.
And, yeah, there's a few.
I don't want to, like, give them all up here.
You know, we talk about them pretty much every day in our Discord.
But, yeah, Kikat is a good one.
Kikat's one of the bigger ones.
It's like 80 mil right now, I think.
But, yeah, I mean, if that tells you anything about my bias going into the summer, like, I've been fully deployed in the market since, like, October.
And I'm just bidding meme coins on base, you know.
So, obviously, I think Bitcoin's going to break out here soon, right?
Like, I don't think you're going to range for too much longer.
I think, I don't know who said it, if it was Max or Tommy, but when you have Anson, the biggest moon boy on CT, calling for more ranging and being, like, short-term bearish, it's a good signal.
It's a good signal that I think we're probably going to rip soon, honestly.
Even though he was right for a while.
He was right, obviously, about Seoul.
But when the market has finally broken him into thinking that we're going to keep ranging, it's probably about something.
Tucker, let's not forget.
Let's not forget who actually started bullposting Seoul when it nuked from $31 down to $12.
And has a video of that.
Hey, now, Wobby, but who shoved?
Okay, who shoved?
I did.
I did that video with Max.
You did a video, but I shoved at $20.
Come on, now.
I mean, the video was posted when Seoul was at $15, man.
What's bro-
But did you buy it?
I mean, I bought Seoul shit coins.
Yeah, but you didn't buy any Seoul.
Hey, hey, hey, that 200 Seoul, dude, was-
That 200 Seoul was rotated into Tia.
All right, brother?
Okay, okay, okay.
Yeah, but, um, I mean, like, Seoul was quite an anomaly right now.
Wait, wait, wait, Wobby, Wobby.
What do you think about Anson being bearish here?
I think he's wrong.
I think he's like-
Oh, Josh requested to speak.
I'll bring him up.
Um, I also see Joe Carlos there, uh, Uncle Joe in the audience.
Uh, you know, I'd love to get his thoughts on the bond market.
Maybe we can talk about the long end for a little bit.
Yes.
Talk to me about the long end, brother.
Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, it's the truth, man.
You know, Joe, he, uh, he, uh, has been a huge part of, uh, of this brand coming on the
show and all that stuff, talking about bonds.
And, and, you know, I don't trade the equity markets.
And I think there's some signal, uh, and Joe coming on up and talking shop with us.
Um, Uncle Joe, I see you up there, man, uh, on spaces with the laser eyes, brother.
I get really jealous, you know?
Um, so, come on up.
I'm going to send you, uh, an invite to speak, man.
Maybe we can talk some meme coins also.
Uh, I know when Tia was pumping, he was coming on here every day.
And, uh, you know, I'm just waiting, man.
I'm waiting for Uncle Joe to win a case, man.
I remember, uh, when Uncle Joe won that case in, like, September and October of last year,
he was on fire on these faces, brother.
Just grilling everybody, man.
So, I do see, uh, accepted the invite, man.
But, uh, yeah, Tucker, go ahead and, uh, finish your thoughts, man.
Those are, that's kind of, like, my response to, uh, you know, Anson being bearish and all
that stuff.
Like, I don't really think that.
Well, hold on.
Was he actually bearish or was he just like, yeah, we're going to do nothing?
Because that's not the same thing.
Uh, yeah, no, I wouldn't say.
I don't know if I'd say bearish.
Maybe that was too strong of a statement.
He was calling for, like, range lows, though, basically.
Like, he wants, like, low 60s.
Range lows, range highs.
Yes.
Cop out.
Yes.
He's just calling for more ranging, so.
It means I don't know any of them.
Dude, the range is broken people.
Man, the range has fucking broken people.
People are not prepared, I don't think.
Um, but, yeah, I mean, no, that's pretty much it, Wabi.
I want to hear from Joe, but, like, essentially, the macro thesis is, like, look, the dollar
is nuking and looks like it wants to continue.
TLT looks like it wants to rip.
I think they're going to cut rates and it's not actually going to be that bad.
The move index wants to come down and yields look topped, okay?
So, like, I think we're set up for everybody to move down the risk curve all at once in
a good way, obviously.
So, that's the quick macro thesis.
But, yeah, I'll give it back to you, Wabi.
Man, let's pass it on right on over to Joe, man.
Uncle Joe, what's going on, brother?
How have you been?
Uh, and when laser eyes, man, when is the laser eyes PFP coming back, brother?
Thanks, Wabi, for having me up.
Yeah, no, I've been doing really well.
A lot of, uh, sort of sideways markets, right, since March.
And I think it's almost entirely driven, um, you know, at least with the big names, the
mega caps and, um, you know, the, uh, the indices, which I follow pretty closely in the
bond market, I think it's almost entirely been driven by this renewed inflationary fear,
which, uh, to, I think it was Tucker's point, like, if the data starts to come back a little
bit cooler, uh, after you've got a few rocky prints and the bond market stabilizes, uh,
I think that is very bullish, right, for Bitcoin and equities too.
Um, now I don't pretend to have any sort of, uh, knowledge of like where the data is going
to come, but, you know, if you look at broad markets, right, most of them peaked, uh, in
March, right, you had, uh, the, the, the SB 500 and the queues, and then you had a new
marginal high, right.
That was recently made, but then as soon as it poked his little head above, it sold off
again, uh, and you had a little bit of a, you know, correction.
So I think you're at a point here, and this is just the way I look at it.
I think that there's still this renewed fear out there of a re-acceleration, which means
that you take the rate cuts off the table.
If that does not come to pass and you actually see the disinflation take hold yet again, and we're
going back down with some of these prints, um, then I think market's going to absolutely
rip.
Um, and I don't think it's a coincidence that, you know, we got the February CPI and PC numbers
in March, you get a month after they get published.
And then at that point, what it did, it was it triggered a sell off in the bond market where
yields rose pretty much across the curve.
And then it also triggered a sell off, um, in the equity market, nothing crazy, right?
Like, you know, I think peak to troffer was like four or 5%, but the point is like, you
have the ceiling there that's in place that is just waiting ever.
So, you know, waiting impatiently, right.
To break out.
And I think bigger money is waiting to put on positions once they're clear that the Fed
is not going to have to reverse course yet again and continue with its higher for longer
regime.
So, uh, that's just my thoughts.
Um, and again, I don't, I don't pretend, pretend to have a keen grasp on like where it's going
to go, I'll just tell you like, I'm like going to respond to the data and if the data starts
to come back where you have a positive print where it's at expectations or below, I think,
you know, assets are going to rip.
Um, now the opposite is also true.
Uh, you know, we were going to get a job claims, we're going to get ADP, I think we get
ADP, uh, tomorrow or Thursday, and then we get, uh, the initial claims report.
So the job print is going to be massive, very important.
The market's going to rip one way or the other, uh, or sell off.
So, you know, that's what I'm looking at.
And then you also get, you know, the next month of data on inflation, that's going to
be key.
Um, but that's just my, my view.
It is encouraging here though, that with some of the ISM numbers you've seen, you've seen
bonds catch a bid and yields fall, which is great, right?
That's what you want to see.
And that's why equities bounce right back up.
Joe, and let me get your thoughts on this, man.
Um, I know our previous conversations months and months ago was that, you know, you were
do be speculating that the ETH ETF would get pushed back.
But now that it's been approved, um, what's your dubious speculation on how flows might
look like, right?
Um, as far as like, you know, the, the product pitch for Ethereum, right?
Deflationary, programmable bunny, blah, blah, blah.
It's, it's more lucrative from a market cap perspective.
And also maybe from a tech perspective where you could have these inflows be a lot stronger,
um, than people even realize, right?
Just like with the inflows for the BTC ETF, right?
I think within four weeks of the, of the, uh, IBIT shares going live, BTC rocketed from,
what was it like 42, 43 K and it zoomed past 60 K.
And of course, like when you factor in ETH's market cap, if the flows are even a quarter
of what the inflows for BTC would have looked like, then that's obviously a positive, uh,
you know, headwind, um, for Ethereum price.
And of course, Ethereum price goes up.
That means that, uh, my favorite meme coins just go up only, man.
What are your thoughts on that, man?
How do you think, uh, the inflows are going to be looking like this summer?
Well, I don't, you know, I don't think it's negative because that way, um, I think it
can be big if, uh, you get some broader, uh, you know, uh, moves in the, in the, in a macro
sense, if you get risk on trade starting to pile in, I think it can be big, but you know,
a lot of this stuff moves in tandem, right?
It's not, it's not just, uh, you know, just Ethereum or just Bitcoin.
A lot of it moves together, right?
And catalysts are important.
They're good, right?
But you, you just have to be cognizant of the overall environment you're in.
To me, like a perfect example is when they launched the Ethereum futures ETF, which almost
nobody remembers, right?
The reason they remembered it is because the first time the Ethereum futures ETF were launched,
they barely saw any, any inflows because from a macroeconomic standpoint, it was a very
bad time for assets.
Okay.
And then those inflows actually did increase with a broader rally in, uh, digital assets
that we saw, you know, from the beginning of 2023 onward, right?
You saw, you know, same thing with, uh, EFE, right?
The gray scale, um, the spot product that, that exists, the closed end trust.
So like, you know, a lot of this stuff just responds if you're in a risk on environment
where, you know, you have the dollar falling and you have yields falling, I mean, that is
positive for assets.
It's not sort of a mystery.
Now, if the opposite is true, if you're starting to get higher prints, again, you see yields
rising, bonds selling off.
And you also see, uh, at the same time, um, you know, I think a more of a cautious environment,
then they're, it's going to move in tandem.
So I, I, there's very little alpha there other than the fact that I think Ethereum perhaps,
uh, is going to have, uh, sort of a recapturing of its narrative, right?
Which it lost to Solana and some of these other chains.
Uh, my, my view just on, on that as a whole is that like, you have the competitor to Bitcoin,
you have the Coke and Pepsi in the marketplace, and I think that there will be some institutional
investors who want to hedge and they're not going to go 100% Bitcoin, right?
They'll probably throw, you know, 75, 25 towards Ethereum just as something else that is, uh,
has the imprimatur of being approved by the SEC, even though we know that launching a spot
ETF does not mean that ETH, uh, uh, cannot be an investment contract under certain circumstances,
such as the, you know, the staking for service, you know, allegations, which,
apparently, uh, I'm hearing that that lawsuit may be forthcoming for a few entities in the
next couple of weeks here.
Joe, and what's your timeline, man, for, uh, this whole debacle with Robin Hood versus
the SEC and Coinbase versus the SEC?
Um, I, I sort of feel like by this summer, all of that will come to pass.
I, I sort of think that.
Not a chance.
Not a chance.
You don't think.
You're talking about the litigation?
I mean, they, they have a discovery schedule.
I think I just was hearing that they're, they're not even going to get the depositions until
November.
Um, so no, I mean, like the litigation is going to take years, like, and then even when the
litigation's wrapped up, we're going to get an appeal.
I mean, if the SEC wins, Coinbase will almost certainly appeal and vice versa.
Um, it is, it is, this is not going to be wrapped up this summer.
That, that it's good.
Just, just to give you context, right?
So, like, Ripple Labs decision, you know, we got that last year.
Um, you know, that was filed in 2020.
People forget that, right?
It was filed in 2020.
It wraps up, you know, two to three years later.
That's just the pace of litigation.
So, you know, don't, don't, don't think that that stuff's going to wrap in, like, you know,
five minutes.
Now, obviously we've gotten, we've got some movement on the administration's front to
being more quote, quote unquote, you know, open-minded, I think was the word the Biden
administration spokesperson used about crypto policy.
That's encouraging, right?
But you have to wonder, is that just an election year sort of, uh, you know, showing face in
support and will that change if they, if the Democrats recapture the White House?
Um, I don't know.
Or alternatively, you know, we could be having a very different conversation where the SEC is
dismissing the case with a new, uh, Trump administration come January, right?
Either one of these things is possible.
But the one thing that I think is core and that anybody, a market participant who's under,
uh, estimating it right now is that whether you hate politics, I think it's just a bunch
of a waste of time.
It doesn't help you at all.
I guarantee you that big money will not be progressive positioned aggressively long going
into this fall.
Like, I mean, I've had these conversations in recent weeks and like, they're, you know,
there is a window here where assets can perform well, but, you know, come October, come late
September, in my opinion, okay, do your own research, not financial advice, but that window
closes.
It doesn't mean there has to be an aggressive sell-off.
It doesn't mean that there has to be like, you know, very negative price action or a bear
market or, or prices crashing.
It's just big money is going to have money on the sidelines because there is a lot of
volatility and uncertainty associated with the election, particularly one with these
two candidates where, you know, both camps seem to hate each other and there will be
accusations of fraud and manipulation and cheating across the board, regardless of the
outcome.
So, you know, just something to think about when you're trying to assess like, what are
the next six months look like?
Because we are in June, right?
And there's a presidential debate this month, the election season, as the Trump campaign
said, you know, it starts in basically September.
They're calling it election season this year because they want to, you know, take advantage
of the early voting and the absentee.
So the clock is ticking, right?
And, and just, just think about that if you're trying to get a read on time.
Yeah, I agree with you on that time window from here until then, right?
Like if you take a look at the way markets have reacted, you know, from, I would say
June, right?
Or whatever May low is put in, because usually May, with the exception of this May, is typically
quite bearish.
Usually from the months of June all the way to mid-August, that tends to be a pretty good
period for volatility to the upside.
So if you're a bull in the crypto markets and the stock market, you know, that's your,
your Vanna charm flow season, as people call it, right?
And there's typically a nuke, right?
And I said this earlier in the space, and I'll pass it off to Zoran after this, who
I see has joined us by surprise.
I know he's in like Dubai or something right now, living the life, dining with kings and
queens.
But, you know, we saw last year, right?
We rallied from that mid-June low all the way to early August.
We had that pullback from 30K down to 25 on August 17th.
We had the rally going into the monthly close.
And then we had that massive drop on like September 8th through the 10th, one of those
days, right?
And then volatility was basically dead for about a month and a half until we had that breakout
where BTC went from 26K straight up to 32K in one candle.
And everyone was surprised, calling it a fake out, this and the other.
And even the summer before that, in 2022, right, we had our June low.
We rallied up until mid-August.
Then we had, you know, that huge drop, which eventually set our low for the indices and
the crypto markets right.
So, you know, as I said earlier in the space, I think there's going to be a lot of people
that shoot themselves in the foot when they just, you know, are not paying attention to
the market this summertime.
I think this is going to be a period of grace where it's like, all right, if I was sidelined
at the start of the year, this is my second opportunity.
And I'll tell you this, man, when volatility dies off, I think I'm going to, I think I'm
going to go somewhere, man.
I think I'm going to, I think I'm going to invest in an experience, right?
You can buy luxury goods, but, you know, experiences, trips, travels, all that stuff can never be
replaced.
I think Zoran told me that as we ate some good steak.
Well, just think like the bulls could be right here, right?
The bulls could absolutely be right.
The bulls are absolutely right, guys.
Let's be real here.
Let's just, sorry to take the stage from here, Joe, but like just, if we're looking at
it, I'm a crypto guy, right?
I don't know macro.
I don't know about these prints that are coming in this week, but I know Bitcoin.
I know market cycles.
I've been here for a fucking decade.
This is the most classical Bitcoin all-time high break price action I've ever seen in my
life.
It's like burned into my memory over the last 10 years.
You see it on low timeframe.
You see it unfold on higher timeframes.
And all you have to do is just be patient.
You have to not liquidate yourself.
You have to be patient and just hold on.
We're literally in the second half of the cycle, right?
So if you look at the cycle from the 15K bottom, right?
So today, 70K, it's like, okay.
So we did, you know, a $50,000 move in the last year or so, year and a half, whatever
it is.
Okay.
So for me right now, we went from 73K to 56K.
That to me is basically the trigger signal.
Hey, this is the halfway point of the cycle.
The gains you made from 15K to 70K, a lot of those alt gains were wiped out, you know,
a month later when we had that massacre of, you know, 40 to 70% of a lot of alts.
A lot of people around tripped money, a lot of derivatives got flushed and destroyed.
That to me is called like the great mid-range reset, the mid-cycle reset.
So we flushed out all the late traders who came in at the very end.
Spot buyers are still very happy, obviously, as we're much higher than the ETF approved
price.
And now we've consolidated in this, you know, 60, 70K range for over three months now
or two months now.
It just makes complete sense.
Yeah, three months now.
It makes complete sense that we're breaking out to the upside.
This is obviously reaccumulation.
All you have to do is just be smart, hold, ignore the volatility and chop and expect much
higher prices by end of year.
Yeah, dude, that was wonderfully said, man.
And, you know, if we do have that chance to see BTC in the six-figure range at the end
of the year, man, oh man, that would be something of beauty, right?
BTC hits like 110, 120K.
What if we go to 111K before the end of the week?
Like, what if we print a $40,000 move in literally the next four days?
I think people are discounting the possibility of that.
I know people hear me screaming and beating my chest on this, but like, you guys don't
understand astrology.
Clearly, you know, technical, you know, traders, millionaires use technical analysts.
Billionaires use astrology, my friends.
There's a very high probability that by June 6th, that 838 in the morning, we're going
to be trading anywhere from, you know, $80,000 to $100,000.
So, with that said, guys, best of luck.
Keep crushing.
Wabi, thanks for letting me chime in here.
I'll let you guys get back to it.
One love.
Zoran, Zoran, we need Chimp up here, man, to talk about how prices can be at $300,000 by
tomorrow, but, man, if we actually pull off that move similar to, you know, the volatility
that we saw in February, where BTC had a candle of like 20 plus percent.
Tucker, do you remember that, man?
In Denver, I think I was asleep.
It was like 9 a.m. or 10 a.m. or something like that.
It was probably like noon, brother, and you were definitely asleep.
Dude, no, bro, because you said I had to, I started MarketCheck.
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
You had SZ?
Yeah.
I forgot.
I totally forgot.
Yeah, we put in a candle, though.
I remember that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
And then you're like, Wabi, wake up.
We need you to host MarketCheck in the next 10 minutes.
And I'm like, ah, shit.
All right.
You're like, BTC.
And then you're like, BTC is at $64,000.
And I'm like, what?
What?
Yes, dude.
That move.
That move from, like, 51 to 65 or whatever happened so fast.
It was plenty.
Dude, in one day, in one day, man, like, bro, that East Denver trip will forever be goaded.
Like, even though I was sick for half the time, that trip will always be, like, incredible.
And wouldn't it be crazy, dude, if, like, the top for the summertime was during BTC Nashville?
That would be something, wouldn't it?
The boys all going to Nashville.
I could see it, bro.
What is it?
Mid-July?
Late July?
Yeah, late July.
Yeah, late July.
Yeah, so, that's going to be something.
Uncle Joe, are you going to be going to Nashville, brother?
Yeah, I'll be there.
I'll be there, of course.
And, like I said, I mean, like, what I was going to say before Zorn jumped in there and gave his thoughts about, did I hear that right?
Like, did he say $200,000 Bitcoin by June 6th?
Is that a call?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Okay, well, let's hope so.
But I'll just tell you, like, I would not be surprised if you see a breakout, you know, to a higher high this summer and then going into fall, we retrace all the way back to this level we're currently at right here.
Like, to me, that seems like probably the most likely scenario because I think the market wants to go up.
But, you know, I mean, let's see.
Like I said, I mean, I just find it very difficult in the face of the uncertainty in the fall.
You'll see markets ripping through late September and October.
It seems very unlikely.
Obviously, markets can do anything they want, right?
Nobody has a crystal ball, but I would not want to make that trade.
But that's just my view.
Yeah, I would agree with you on that end.
From a seasonal perspective, I would never be a betting man to believe that September to early October is, like, a period where you want to be fully risk-on.
As I do think most of the volatility that happens from here on up until early August will far exceed the amount of gains that you can get from September to mid-October, in my opinion.
But, you know, I am excited to see the outcome of this election because no matter what happens, I still think that quarter one of next year is going to lead, you know, it's going to lead, I don't know.
I don't even know if I should say it, man.
It sounds so absurd, but I think if you miss the volatility that you saw in the crypto markets from, you know, the previous two cycles, I think you're going to have an echo bubble of that.
Not the same volatility, but something that rhymes, something that definitely rhymes.
But, you know, I'm of the camp that Trump wins, to be honest, because truth be told, like, the vote for the other guy is basically a vote against the crypto market, right?
Like, you know, Trump gets charges and he's deemed a felon, and then the next day Biden vetoes that crypto bill.
That's absolutely criminal, man.
Under Biden's watch, we've had FTX collapse, BlockFi, all those other stuff collapse, you know, taxes up the wazoo.
They're trying to destroy the American entrepreneur, just washing all of innovation here in the West, back to the East.
And I remember saying this in early 2023, man, I think a lot of the innovation for the next couple of years is probably going to come from Asia.
But at the end of the day, America owns the finish line.
I've always said that.
So at some point, I do think America will be one of crypto's largest hubs for entrepreneurs.
But, you know, we need some follow through with the powers that be, right?
I think, you know, if the House and the Senate are under control, I don't really care if Biden wins or not.
It's just the people, you know, in other sectors that would matter if he wins.
But we'll see, man.
We'll see.
For now, I'm just going to focus on what's in front of me, and that's the summer melt-up here.
But let's get some thoughts from Louie, man.
He hasn't had a chance to speak yet.
I know he was having some technical issues, man.
So, Louie, what's going on, brother?
Can you hear me okay now?
Are you good?
Hey, what's going on, guys?
Yeah, I hear you.
You hear me?
Yeah, loud and clear, man.
Loud and clear.
I guess we can start off, man, with, you know, what are your thoughts on the current conversation?
And I know you're an individual that likes to look at the equity markets and the crypto markets at the same time.
And over here at BB, you know, we've been doing that up until, you know, the last couple of months where it's mainly just been focused on the crypto side of things, man.
But how are you feeling about today specifically, man?
I think we got some good momentum on our back the first week of the month in high gear.
I'm feeling pretty good, man.
How about yourself?
Yeah.
I mean, a lot of the people that spoke already, like, touched on a lot of good points.
I'm more of a visual guy.
So, I posted just two charts in the nest.
I think it's the second one.
But just looking at the backdrop of the equity markets, you know, we have the NASDAQ and the S&P.
They just look absolutely primed here for continuation to new highs going into June.
You know, you had S&B at the S&P print a bullish engulfing candle on the monthly on Friday.
And what most are expecting was a summer lull and a kind of a break in the markets, I think, is going to turn into kind of more of an exponential run and more of like a mania phase, whether that be the equities and that'll ultimately trickle down into crypto.
So, with the backdrop of the NASDAQ and the S&P looking like this, we have Bitcoin literally flirting right under the all-time highs after a three-month consolidation.
You know, if we didn't get that three-month chop of consolidation, I'd be a little more, you know, skeptical.
But, you know, we already had.
We had our consolidation.
We had our time to, you know, Bears had their chance to bring us down further.
We only got a 22% pullback, three months of chopping sideways.
And now we're right back to the old all-time high, right under it.
This is the time just to be positioned.
It's not time to get cute.
Pick your plays.
And just wait for that, you know, Bitcoin break of all-time high.
You know, I still got, I think Bitcoin's still got some juice to go.
I still have, you know, my portfolio.
I'm mostly crypto, but I still got a large chunk of my portfolio in Bitcoin around 25% of my portfolio allocation.
I mean, for some guys up here or some people in the chat, I know that's nothing compared to what they do.
But for me, you know, being on mostly all coins as well, I still think I'm waiting for that break of the all-time high and that price discovery for Bitcoin.
And then I can start, you know, unloading it as we get into that 80, 90K, 100K.
I mean, wherever we go, I'm not going to put a price target out there.
I'm going to take what the market gives me.
But that's the time where I'm really going to be unloading Bitcoin, taking profits, and rolling it into that higher down the risk curve and picking those new winners for all coins.
And, you know, we've seen meme coins do well, especially during this three-month consolidation where, like Zorn said, a lot of alts basically round-tripped.
Like I was here, I've been here the whole bear market.
You know, I caught the 17K low on Bitcoin.
I bought that.
That's done well for me.
I was buying alts at the low back in like November, October of last year.
And even I got round-tripped, you know, on a lot of stuff.
And I was really early.
So one thing I would say is I think there's a lot of mid- to high-cap altcoins right now that people are very under-allocated to.
I know meme coins have kind of taken the spotlight, and that's where everyone's focus is in right now.
And that's fine.
I have my basket of meme coins.
I'm in Pepe.
I'm in Andy.
I got, you know, a base chain player that I'm playing that's doing absolutely well right now.
But I also have a portion of my portfolio allocated to these, you know, mid-caps, ones that are either back at their lows or they're like just trading close to their all-time highs.
And I think these are going to go on way bigger runs than most expect once we get that clear break of the all-time high for Bitcoin.
So, you know, just make sure you're allocated to all different niches.
Don't put all your eggs in one basket and just like sit on your hands, wait for that break of Bitcoin for all-time high.
And then you could, you know, dabble around and make more of your bigger bets and get more key with it.
But right now, that's what I'm waiting for.
But with this backdrop and the way, you know, everything's looking, I'm bullish going into the summer for sure, at least for June.
Yeah, if we look at the last cycle consolidations right before BTC breaks through its previous all-time high, it's usually, you know, 8 to 12 weeks, right?
I know 2017 was a little bit longer, but there's usually a lot of consolidation slightly under the all-time high or a little bit above.
But it's when you get that massive candle where we're officially, you know, 25, 30% plus above its prior all-time high where things really get juicy.
And I think, you know, what you're saying is right.
Right now, most of the attention on this market is strictly meme coins.
And at some point, right, like you have other sectors that catch a bid, you know, like AI was pretty big.
Some venture capital type stuff like Say and Tia and Dime were catching a bid.
And, you know, the market has a way of surprising you, right?
But I still think the strongest narrative that the market has taught us over the last, you know, four or five quarters since we bottomed from the FTX low is that meme coins are going to be the most fruitful sector, you know?
And it is what it is, right?
Like last cycle, we had the L1 bubble.
We had things like Sol, ADA, AVAX, Phantom, Luna, all that stuff.
Total market cap for all those things was about a quarter of a trillion.
Right now, we're not even at a fifth of that.
And, you know, if you think memes are still going to be a thing that we use on a day-to-day basis, then memes are obviously going to go crazy, right?
And we've been talking about Pepe here on this show for multiple quarters now, right?
And in between all that, of course, there are trades to be made, right?
Like Tia was a really good trade.
Neon was a really good trade.
And now, you know, I think there's opportunity on base, right?
I think there's a lot of microcaps on there that I share on my personal profile.
You share on your personal profile.
Tucker shares on his personal profile.
And I think you have to position yourself ahead of the herd, right?
Like a lot of people are waiting for ETH to get above 5,000 to really do anything in the altcoin space.
And what this cycle has taught you is that things can move a lot quicker than you want to know, right?
Like my expectation going to the halving, right, was like 45 to 50K, right?
Like last summer, that was my base expectation.
But then going into January, I'm like, all right, maybe 55.
And then in February, when we broke 55, I'm like, damn, like we actually might make an all-time high before the halving.
And it happened, right?
And it happened.
But as far as round tripping, man, like that just happens to everybody if you're like diversified and all that stuff in different sectors, right?
Like if you have like a quarter million dollars and you throw that into 10 different assets, right, there's a possibility that like six of those assets might not do anything and the other four just go absolutely crazy.
Like just that shit insane, right?
That's just the nature of markets, right?
Like as long as your portfolio, in my opinion, like every six months makes a higher low, like and somewhat of a higher high, right?
Like every six months, every three to six months, right?
It's just higher lows, higher highs, higher lows, higher highs, right?
I think that's a good trajectory in my book, right?
It's about, you know, how many chips you can conserve to keep playing at the table, right?
And then, of course, like when easy mode is turned on, it's more player versus environment, right?
You know, that's when you can just go crazy, right?
And those time periods over the last 12 months were, you know, from mid-February to mid-March of this year.
And then, of course, late October to late December of last year, right?
Those are like the two time periods over the last, you know, 18 months where I would say everyone was winning, in my opinion.
Because I know the summer was more PvP, and most of the quarter one expansion to the upside happened within like a couple of days.
I think it was that pump in January, we pumped from like 17 to 21K, and then all coins just went up only for like three days.
And that was like the most of it, right?
Like I think Sol went from $8, $9 all the way to $25 within like a week, and then did nothing for the rest of Q1.
Or really for the rest of like the year up until October.
That was like, that was around Solana's top end range.
It was between $25 to $30, so.
Yeah.
Yeah, now we're just waiting for the ETF flows.
How do you think the ETF flows are going to be for ETH, man?
Do you think they'll be just as strong as the BTC ones?
I don't think it would be just as strong, but I think people are going to be surprised to the amount of flows that it gets.
Same way people were surprised with the Bitcoin inflows.
You know, everyone was kind of just banking on being a failure, but they didn't realize how much demand there actually was for Bitcoin.
But just like anything else, like you have Bitcoin, then you have altcoins.
Bitcoin usually takes a bulk of the liquidity, and then altcoins will take a little less liquidity as you go farther and farther down the risk curve.
So, you know, everything has their place in the market.
So, no, I wouldn't say it's going to be just as strong, but I think it's going to put up some solid numbers.
The exact numbers, I have no idea.
Maybe that's a better question for Joe.
I don't specialize in that.
But what I would say is I think there's definitely a demand for it, and I think people are going to be surprised at the initial inflows that we see.
At least that's the plan.
If we see something different, you know, maybe we have to pivot and adapt.
But as of now, the way the markets are moving, basically, in my mind, how I look at it is the higher the markets move,
like if the general legacy markets continue higher, the S&P, the NASDAQ, and that continues higher, and people continue to make more and more money and have more and more profits to play with,
the more money that's going to trickle down, you know, farther down the risk curve into these riskier assets.
So as long as we still have that backdrop and the market cooperates, I think it's going to be a win for ETH and it's going to be a win for crypto for sure.
So they just launched, Lobby, they launched this ETH Futures double X leverage ETF, and it did $5 million in volume today.
Okay, which, you know, you're not going to say it's nothing, right?
But it's $5 million in volume.
Like that's like, I think, 10 minutes of volume on some of the exchanges, right?
So the notion that it's going to be comparable to the Bitcoin ETF, I think it's wrong.
Now, is it going to be helpful?
Sure.
Is it going to be a positive catalyst and like something that can drive price of ETH higher?
Absolutely, right?
But I would be shocked if you had anywhere close to the amount of inflows as you saw with Bitcoin ETFs,
because there's clearly more of a mainstream Wall Street demand for that versus ETH.
Yeah, I think it's going to be all contingent on Larry Fink going on TV and pitching the product.
I know in the summertime of last year, in like late June, he got on CNN or something at like 4 or 5 in the morning
to talk about BTC out of nowhere.
That was pretty awesome, man.
I wonder if he's going to be going to any of these conferences, man.
That would be something, man.
But Uncle Joe, man, I'm looking forward to meeting you, man, and playing some basketball,
playing some chess, grabbing a bite to eat, talking shop, man.
Well, you got to find a basketball court so we can play.
Yeah, we'll find one, man.
I have played one-on-one basketball games for Bitcoin.
So if you want to throw down, let's do it.
Let's do it, bro.
Let's play some poker also, man.
I know you're a fan of that, man.
Yeah, I'll play it.
I've never played poker.
There are going to be quite a few games.
You've never played?
You're more than welcome.
There's quite a few poker games going on in Nashville.
So just hit me on.
Yeah, trust me.
I will, man.
We'll be there for about a week, man.
So, man, I think I'm going to wrap up here.
We're coming into the top of the hour.
But before I do, man, Louie is a new addition to the BecauseBitcoin team, man.
And Louie, man, how's it been, brother?
How are you liking coming on the shows on a daily basis and creating content with us, man?
I mean, it's been great.
It's a great opportunity.
I've been working for the past couple of years to end up in a position like this where I could do what I love and then have it also be what I do for a living.
I mean, obviously, other than trading.
And I get to help people and give them another perspective.
So that's fulfilling for me.
And I'll tell you what, being able to poke around in the BB Discord over the last week or two, it's the place to be, man.
And you're not getting a service like that around here, especially in the crypto space, because I've bought most of them.
And I've been in most of the discords and telegrams and all these courses.
And they're giving basically group calls twice a day before market open and towards the close.
The 100% interaction with the members.
It's not just a one-way chat.
We have our spaces.
We have our market check.
These guys are putting in work nonstop.
And they're here to help.
And it's a great place to be.
And the future looks bright because Bitcoin.
And that's why I was so set on joining these guys.
So I'm here to grow.
And yeah, future's bright.
Hey, brother.
Great to have you, man.
Guys, I hope you enjoyed the space.
Big shout out to Tucker and Louie, our guys from the team, coming on to Talk Some Shop.
Uncle Joe, thank you for coming up to Talk Some Shop.
Same thing with Zoran and everybody else who contributed to today's show.
Shout out to you guys in the audience.
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We'll be back tomorrow with Market Check at 11 a.m. EST and then at 4.30 p.m. EST for our weekly Andy Community Spaces where Max, myself and Louie and a few other members of the Andy Community will be talking all things culture, memes, markets and all that stuff as we do every Wednesday.
So, guys, take care.
I'm going to go ahead, grab some lunch.
Then I'm going to train upper body.
I'm going to do some log presses.
I'm going to do some axle bar presses.
Work on your jump shot.
Get some work in on your jump shot.
Yeah, I'm going to do some box jumps too, man.
I'm going to start doing those again, man.
And, yeah, I'm going to go ahead and, you know, have a good training session tonight and hope you guys, you know, have a good meal, have a good night's rest.
And may the candles be in your favor, guys.
We'll see you all tomorrow.
Take care.
Bye bye.
And God bless you all.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Peace.
Beep.
Beep.
Beep.
Beep.
