Hey, what's up, JT. Hey, can you hear me Wabi?
Perfect man, mr. Spread. Can you hear me? I'm good. Hello, JT
Hey, brother. All right, perfect
We'll go ahead and get started in just a few moments guys
I know I started on the space a bit late. Actually, you know what man?
I'm gonna go ahead and get started right now. Actually, well, we'll let people filter in as we speak
So what's going on guys? Welcome back to the show. What is going on? PTC below 40k. Very sober just keeps on
Dumping all this GP TC every single day Monday through Friday at 9 a.m
Barry Silbert wakes up and he says whoa, what is going on? I need to offload all this BTC on the market
Let's go ahead and get the show started, right?
We're gonna nuke the price down to 35 36 and make people think that it's all over but in reality
I think we're a lot closer to being back then for it being completely over
I think the bull market support band is right around 36 37 K and
You know if anything man people should be grateful for these prices, right and
I'm excited to be here man. I'm excited to be with you. Mr. Spread JT as always guys
This space is recorded. Welcome back to the show. Hope you guys had a fantastic weekend
I did not take a single look at the equity markets today
We'll go ahead and pass it over to JT when it comes out to equity bill and then we'll have mr
spread for some backup commentary man, but
I'm feeling great. You know some of these altcoins if they retest their yearly open, right?
I do have some buys that I'm looking at right if some of these alts do go back to the really open
They're slightly below. I want to see some consolidation. I'm not in a rush, you know to
To really knife-catch here to be frank and you know, I'll be true with it
I'll be truthful with you guys if you guys follow me on my personal account
You'll know that I did take some heavy profits on Celestia
I'll go ahead and bring Josh up and you know, if you've had some gains and again, we've been talking about some
plus an amount of time pay yourself pay yourself on the way up and
You know always leave a moon bag and I think over the last three months things have been you know
Pretty solid and if we consolidate here, right?
I'm fine with that but I still do think we can hit for the first half of this year. I think
But after that man, I think
You know stay alive until 25 is always gonna be in my motto for 2024 stay alive till 2025 and
Don't blow up before the having so listen, man. We're gonna keep we're gonna keep today's show short
I know we started quite late as usual
Discords been growing a bit rapidly. So
Once again, the community discord call, you know, one on longer than expected
But shout out to our just work community set out to our YouTube community and thank you all so much for joining today's show again
I'm your host King Lobby and today we're gonna you know, talk about what's going on in the markets and
You're joined by Josh as well. So I'm gonna pass it over to you JC. I know you're limited on time here today, man
So what's going on brother? How are you man? How was your weekend? Oh, man? It was great
I got a lot of extracurricular in as far as plowing and shoveling and all that fun stuff
So got my workout in the last few days. But yeah weekend was great
Today's somewhat, you know just being productive doing my day-to-day. I have a lot
You know, I have a kind of a separate gig where I actually support financial advisors with retail clients
So it's it's a tough, you know juggling act trying to stay on top of markets not the least of which are crypto
Centric sometimes and they can be very volatile, but I figured what we would do is kind of a rehash of what we've done
For the last many months that I've had the privilege of joining your space
you know again, I don't want to beat a dead horse here, but
I'm not shocked, you know at price and and I think those people that have
Listened to my commentary
Those individuals in my private group and quite frankly even the ones on X
What was coming? I know that we lost a few people because unfortunately, you know, here's the problem
You know we get in spite of me saying this it's true, but people say they're not emotionally attached to their investments
Um, that's not true at all. A matter of fact, I would argue that it's quite contrary to what logic would suggest
emotionally attached to their investments and and and I understand that I can appreciate it but I
Try to detach myself from the thing that I'm trading or buying or selling or shorting and when I looked at Bitcoin
You know, we we talked about this months in advance
That when we got ready for the ETF launch, wouldn't it be an interesting dynamic?
If we came into that 618 to 786 retrace walk and lo and behold we did and not only that
We put in a massive shooting star candle on the weekly
So it's not surprising to see a 20 25 percent correction now people are probably like, okay, that's great. What about now?
And that's a great question to ask especially if you're long Bitcoin. I've been out of Bitcoin
I hold I always hold a portion of Bitcoin regardless. It's kind of like my precious metals
You know, you're always gonna own some but by and large I'm out
My primary call spaces was well under 20 my primary selling
Call space this was probably around 43 44 and then I sold my last batch right before the ETF launch
But I still have I still have a position doesn't mean that I'm
You know not gonna own Bitcoin, but let's talk about where we're at today
So we bounced conveniently enough right off of the hundred daily SMA the simple moving average
That's right around thirty nine one thirty nine two. I think the intraday low today was around thirty nine three on most exchanges
So makes a lot of logical sense that you would have a bounce there
Structurally immediately under that is a more significant area of support
But I need to kind of add a word of caution here
Guess what I'm gonna say is and it might be not well received
But you've got to listen to it because it's just the way it is technically speaking
So if we don't get a bounce like within this next, you know
$1,500 window here that would set us up for something a little bit more drastic and
While my private group knows what that is
I'll just go ahead and tell you from just a pure technical perspective it would send us into the low 30 K range
And the reason for that is on the higher time frame charts. We are
Really close to a MACD cross now those things can whipsaw in intro week
Meaning that you don't get the print until seven o'clock Eastern Standard Time here in the US on the Bitcoin weekly candle
The thing about that is if we were to get a MACD cross and it were to stick
The weekly moving averages are substantially lower than the daily moving averages
So on the higher time frame, there's still reason to be cautious
In the intermediate time frame, so I would say you know next couple weeks to next couple months
I would be on the lookout just to you know, if we don't hold 38
But then again on the flip side of that it's it would seem totally logical from a technical standpoint to see a balance
Especially if the equity market continues to rally
And speaking of rally, it's made yet another all-time high today
So and you'll remember wabi when we were discussing this months ago
I mean, we're not talking about a few days ago
We're not talking about a few weeks ago
How many times have they been on this come you know this conversation with you guys?
When we got to new all-time highs the one question I wanted everybody to to kind of just pause
Look around take a look around the room look at the assets that we're we're comparing ourselves to cross us across asset and analysis
If you will, you know, Dow Jones made new all-time high NASDAQ S&P Russell's climbed up another two and two and a half percent today
Now I'm a pregnant pause there because it's really important and a lot of people say well
Yes, sometimes Bitcoin goes and sometimes they have some that's true. That is true
And I can't emphasize it enough. I cannot emphasize it enough. I don't care if people don't like me quite frankly
You know, I'm I'm used to it. I get it
I totally understand but the facts are the facts and until we get some traction and really if we
Even if we were to get a bounce you have to ask yourself the question
What happens if equities start to roll over, you know, there's we're not technically out of the woods there
I mean, we could still conceivably put in a higher double top on the S&P. That's not out of the question
It's not out of the realm of possibilities while I still maintain a much more bullish bias on equities
I still have to be very mindful, you know
These these next few points on the S&P are really key and how we close this week will be really key
I'm looking at the Russell right now in particular
I know we've talked about that because that tells me the health of what's underneath the hood
So it's real shiny when you look at the indexes, especially when you look at the mag 7
You can probably drop Tesla from that so we could probably talk about like the super 6 now
But the fact of the matter is the rally in equities has been very narrow
But my thesis has been it would broaden out and we would start to see that we've started to see that we're starting to
See an influx of money into other areas of the marketplace
But here's the here's the thing
If we continue to see a rally in markets and I'm speaking like legacy markets and we don't see Bitcoin
Make it over that 48 49 hurdle that would cause me a lot of concern
And it would and the reason it would cause me concern is because that would be a significant top in what a B wave
Retrace would look like and I know we've talked about that and I'm gonna get all the technical jargon out there
And I'm just gonna tell you bottom line what I think
So with my personal base case the way that I believe we are looking at it from just a pure technical standpoint
Take the emotions throw them in the trashcan. Okay, if I were going to look at a chart
And you weren't telling me it was Bitcoin or Tesla or Nvidia
I don't care if you just showed me the Bitcoin chart
I would tell you that it needs to be healthy to retest its original point of breakout and that's in the low 30k range and
Have another attempt at that 618 wall
It's my personal humble opinion at this point in time
Based on the charts and based on the environment that we find ourselves in that if equities continue to get this big massive
Move higher that Bitcoin could reset itself on the mid time frame and even someone on the higher time frame
Then have another shot at a secondary top
Okay, but and this is where I come in and I'm totally there. I don't know how many people are in this camp
I don't really follow a lot of people. I do, you know
I'll peek in on people occasionally just to kind of add some confluence to my own work
But if we were not to get over 57 on a secondary pump
It would structurally be from an Elliott Way perspective
don't like using the term over but it would be over and
The actual count that would take you down on a C wave lower has to breach the top of the the prior
Fourth wave and and that's just an Elliott wave rule. Okay, and you're probably thinking wow, what is that fourth wave?
Well, if you're around in the cycle back in
2017 you know what that was 18 it's $20,000
so now now let me let me before everybody starts throwing eggs at me a
Lot of people have asked. Okay. What if that happened? What would that mean from an Elliott way perspective?
Well means you can always reset the cycle
That means you get in Elliott wave you get five primary waves up and then you have what they call a corrective impulse lower
Now you'll get corrective
ABC sub wave impulses inside of a larger macro structure
So if you look at Bitcoin from say 2009 and 10 from inception till its peak which was you know?
At 65 I consider that the real peak and the echo peak the double top 69 that was five
Conclusive waves and I can draw them out for you
I can show you the corrective phases within each one of those and by the way if you're looking at a five wave structure
Waves two and four are corrective in nature
But what I'm referring to is the backside of the mountain and and by that I mean the ABC
Corrective impulse of the entire macro structure
So just so that and again, I'm getting a little technical here, but that's just that that's what I do
so you have to forgive me if that were to take place and we did not get past the six one eight seven eight six wall as
Markets are screaming higher on the legacy side
Then that would that would prepare me for being very short Bitcoin and quite frankly
I'd be getting ready to get short legacy markets because I
Believe Bitcoin is a liquidity play as much as anything as and again
I believe it's a revolutionary digital commodity asset. I get all that you can give me all the means you can talk about decentralization appear-to-peer
I don't really care at the end of the day. I look at the chart and what does the chart tell me and right now?
The chart is screaming. Look we have an opportunity for short-term bounces. Yes, but directionally
I would personally rather see an absolute flush out to the low 30k range
Right around that 31 to 33 area to back test the original point of breakout and then have our next descent to a higher
Plateau if you want to call it that
The other thing that's also very significant to me is how people are fighting this and as a matter of fact
If you look at the cinnamon indicators, believe it or not, they're still in the greed camp. That's shocking
And and that's also concerning if you're long because what it's telling me and again
I don't really count this but I'm actually a registered behavioral financial analyst, which means I study the psychology of markets
That's that's something that's a designation
I've spent a couple years doing it and and people don't understand or maybe they do understand that markets are driven as much by
Psychology as they are liquidity and flows and PE ratios, etc
So what is that telling me from a sentiment perspective?
It means that people are trying to catch a proverbial falling knife now
They might catch this one here at the 39k area because of the hundred day moving average
But it could be like the only analogy I can use is like a slinky going down the stairs
So when you if you were a kid and you played with a slinky or maybe you can't throw a bouncy ball down the stairs
What happens is as the slinky gets ready to go to its next lower level. What happens it goes up?
Okay, so it goes up but then the next low is a lower low
That is also significant today marks the day where we made a lower low by breaking
40,000 181 from the structural impulse that we have from the original point of breakout
So let me let me break it down Sesame Street simple
We called for this to happen
People don't like it people fight it
Now we're in an area where we could get some minor support between 38 and 39k
Especially if markets continue rally if markets roll over and I'm speaking to equities
You'll see Bitcoin more or less go with it and and it's my opinion that would the sentiment still yes
It's not extreme great or even you know even firmly agreed
But we're on the right side of neutral meaning that people are still trying still trying
So I would I would think at that point you would get I don't want to call the words rug pull
But let's just say a flush out
It could be fast. It could be quick. It could be pretty intense
But at that point if you can hold the structural support
The structural support of the chart and low 30s
Then you set yourself up nicely for what could be a second quarter blow-off for everything and mind you
The repo market along with the BTFT and all that stuff starts to run out, you know in March
Now I think the feds gonna be forced to cut rates and people are gonna be all. Oh, it's a soft landing
It's not I can promise you just like people thought we were gonna crash the 12k when we were at 1716 15k on Bitcoin
And we were 3500 and SMP. We were pounding the table go long go on. You're an idiot JT. You're an idiot
3,500 became almost 5,000. We're at 1,500 points almost Bitcoin more than doubled
So and a lot of alts have done really well, and I'm gonna speak to alts really quick here if you got a moment
Because this is how I see this playing out if we get that structural reset on the chart and you see Bitcoin make people cry
And you know blood is going through the streets in epic fashion
It's at that point you could see some all weakness obviously because even if dominance falls
You're gonna have alts that are gonna act in sympathy to the overall
But it's my personal opinion from a structural standpoint when you look at total to total three and others chart and I posted this on
You're gonna have an out performance of alts on the secondary pump if we get it
So while Bitcoin might go from say 49 it's dropped down to 39
Maybe it has a quick pump and then it drops back down to that structural support and again, nothing is guaranteed
All right, I'm just I'm just speaking from a purely technical standpoint
But if you were to get that secondary pump remember if you're going from 32 to say 52, okay
But I think the outperformance will actually be in the alt space and many people have asked me what about this alt season?
This this unicorn of an alt season. I'm gonna pound the table again
The prior seasons have had considerably less coins than we have today
And while I don't know how people don't understand simple math
The total to chart is at three-quarters of a trillion dollars sounds like a lot of money
Go ahead and and and let's not forget, right?
Here on this show, you know
We were pounding the table at Solana when it was at the teens and tea at two bucks and Tia
Did a clean 10x Solana did a clean 7x and you know, we're not talking low caps here
We're talking we're talking boys. Yeah, we're talking liquid
We're talking liquid tokens that added billions to their valuation
I mean, it's it's kind of crazy that like when these moves happen people are like, oh crap
Here we go. All season all season all season now
I think the most bullish thing that can happen JT and I'm sure you'd agree with me is for crypto to simply consolidate, right?
And just chill out here for a while man, because you know Q4 was was insane, man
You know every single time you were on these spaces in December. I'd be like man
This all coin it would just better and better and better
Yeah, man, I have not even looked at total three either for a minute to be honest, man
And you know from from a weekly perspective, I think I think we should just chill out man
I think the longer the base the higher into space to be quite frank and
Hope so, but I have a different opinion. I mean, I know that's not well received wabi
But I again and again speaking to the alts and I've spoken to my own private group about this
I have many alts in my own bag that have done three five close to 10x. I haven't gotten a 10x
I'm gonna be totally honest with you
But I've had some really good coins and I've had some real dogs and I've actually added to a few of my dogs
Because here's the thing. I believe that if we are to get I don't even like using the word alt season because I think it really
Misrepresents the cornerstone of what I'm trying to say
Bitcoin dominance goes down alts perform better all you know, dominance goes up alts don't do as well
But when you have three quarters of a trillion dollars and let's just say it goes to one point six one point seven trillion
And it's prior all-time high. You still have like 30 40 50 percent more coins than you did prior cycle
So going to your point when you talk about the XRPs the aetherian the Solanas the Avax all these mega cap coins
if you will that have really a lot of
They had a lot of gravitational force for for the liquid pool that's available
So when people will ask me about well this little micro cap over here. It's only got like seven and a half million dollars
This is the next hundred X man. If I try to even buy that thing
I'll make it go a hundred X because there's no frickin liquidity in it
So and half the time there's no charts to look at so again not trying to be mean
But you know when you've got twenty five twenty six twenty seven thousand coins and you divide it by the simple number of the total
Two you're looking at about thirty thirty five million a coin and again, that's that's assuming you spread it out evenly
So at the end of the day, you're gonna have winners
You're gonna have losers and and again that kind of goes to heart why you have to have somewhat of a diversified portfolio
Not a concentration maybe in one or two coins in your bet in your entire ranch on it
Um, but this is where I differ from most of the crypto space and and and it's gonna be it's gonna sting a little
Just gonna warn you. Um, I I just don't see um, I
Don't see Bitcoin right now disconnecting from the legacy markets as much as I'd love to see that
I know right now they are and they do have spasms where you know
S&P does better Bitcoin does better and they kind of swap back and forth
But we're talking about an asset that 13 14 years ago started out under a dollar and screamed its way to almost $70,000
When you look at the overall percent and just the insanity of it all
I mean as far as and again
I know we're comparing it to gold in the commodity realm and this that and the other thing
But you also got to understand that if I believe what I believe which is to say
The S&P and the legacy markets make a new all-time high as they have but even go higher based on some targets from preliminary targets
that I have for myself the first target we've already hit the
4800 to 5100 based on some pattern confluence of things that my guys already know about and I have a stretch target based on some other aspects of fib
Extensions as well as a cup and handle that's in play. But once we get to that level wabi
When we get there I'm calling for an outright collapse and and I know I know that's hard to hear and I know there's some
People that are in this camp people have compared me to other people and I'm like we've been calling through this for months
It's not a year. So in I kind of get into this space with my with my mind and I'm like, how do I how do I be?
How can I educate and stay sesame Street simple, but at the end at the same time, you know
How I'm emphasized the point that I'm trying to drive and my point is this I've been in the camp for the last
Let's call it see October
November December January for about seven months is when I started to change my mind on Bitcoin because honestly
There were a lot of people that were pissed at me because they said no Jay to you said first half of last year
We're going to all-time highs and then they come out all their guns blazing at me
Saying you're you're a fraud. You're a phony and and I'm sitting there like what?
Because I see some evidence on a chart and I made a prediction that was a year in advance
Act I can't change my mind
Let me emphasize one thing and one thing really clear
If you stick to a bias or some type of thesis when the charts are telling you something different
You have to be able to be fluid in a market that is fluid
When you stick to something based on some dogmatic thesis or base case for the sake of ego or pride
You're gonna lose my question to myself is would I rather have more followers or would I rather have more money?
I'm gonna be honest with you
I'd rather take the latter now
I have a lot of good friends in this space and I have a lot of good friends in our private group and I and
But they have to understand that when I speak to them in a mature manner
You have to put away the rose-colored glasses. Don't get me wrong. I'm a believer in Bitcoin
But right now the way it looks
And I don't care if we bounce here temporarily. I still see some monthly oscillators that are way
Overheated and we look at things like this and we consider the fact that we're still nominally in the greed sector after dropping almost
$10,000 from its all time. Well, not from the 49,000 ETF launch fee
That concerns me. So I have to be real. It's not going to be well liked
It's not the most popular of opinions, but it's one that's actually made us a lot of money
You know, I've been you know, I've been here when we got long IWM
Told you I sold IWM. I've actually got back into IWM where I'm up about another four and a half percent on that
I went long bi ti just below 13 bucks. I know that's hard for people to hear but guess what?
I'm up a buck in that that's an ETF short for Bitcoin in case you're wondering
My point is this I don't care if something's going up. I don't care if something's going down
I don't care if it's going sideways. You better bet your bottom dollar
I'm gonna be on the right side of that trade and I don't care if it offends people if it makes them mad if they
Quit following me and take away their ball that we've been playing with on the playground because I hurt their feelings
If you want me to console you and coddle you from a feelings perspective
Probably not a good idea to follow me
But if you want to make money and you want to be a big boy or big girl
But I can tell you the economic reasons why we're gonna crash
I can tell you the technical reasons we're gonna crash and I can also
Confirm for you on this call here
And now we talked about this 48 49 level going all the way up to 786 being a wall
We get over that I will join team Bulls. I'll be out there with a big bull on my shirt
We could do a live space. We ought to do a video chat, man
I'll be out there. I'll you can do a double dare with me. Ask me to do something crazy and wild
You'll play the guitar JT. You'll play the guitar man
I'll play the guitar and then I'll even do an a polar plunge
I'll do a polar plunge if we break, you know 58 cuz I'll tell you right now if we break 58
You bet your bottom dollar we're going straight to new all-time highs and I'll be in your $100,000 camp
So we got to keep it we got to keep it Sesame Street simple JT
I know I know and before look before I cut out because I do have to take the kids to basketball practice
I do not ever want to come across as mean or in in in anyways
Not sympathetic to the plight of many on this call who are long Bitcoin or long and alt
While I never give specific financial advice
I always try to give a 30,000 foot overview and if you listen to the inflection in my southern slang voice here or southern draw
You'll understand that I'm trying to be as truthful and as real as possible. I don't have anything like an agenda. Okay
I'm just trying to be real if anything if I had an agenda
It would make more sense for me to go along to get along with the crowd and and quite frankly
I feel like the crowd is still very bullish and that's fine
And I want them to be what they want to be
But on my side of the aisle the place to be for Bitcoin for me was to be out and that's where I find myself
But I will say this if you want a hundred thousand dollar Bitcoin or even higher
There's nothing to say that once the Elliott wave cycle has completed itself
And you know the Phoenix will rise from the ashes and that and that goes for stocks as well
While I'm calling for an absolute outright crash. The reality is this we still got a long ways to go
I still think we go much higher in equity land still could see a secondary pump in Bitcoin land
And if we do get the secondary pump, you'll see many of those choice
I'll still have another rip left in them
But again the backside of the mountain once we do the ABC and we did ABC 1 2 3 steps to me Street simple
As you say I still think there's a really good shot that on the backside of that mountain
The people that have the fortitude to buy something that they think is dead because that's usually what always happens cryptos dead
It's kind of like disco in the 70s and cryptos dead once that narrative comes out
That'll be the time you start accumulating again, but the next cycle will be a renewed Elliott wave five wave macro structure
But again, that's getting a little bit in the weeds and that's a long time down the road
But for now in the immediate time frame your 39 at 38k or short term support the hundred-day
SMA and the 38 being structural below that you have the low 30s and and and I
Definitely see us having some kind of material bounce either at this higher level or even at the lower the lower is more healthy
From a chart constructive perspective if you're wanting to be if you it's kind of like when your mom says
You know you cut your name
She's like, you know, or maybe maybe she's trying to rip off a bandage from a cut knee
You had just do it real fast mom. That's kind of the way I would approach this if we were gonna go down there
I'd hate to do this kind of slow drip. I'd almost prefer just rip the band-aid off
Let's get it over with so we can get constructive on the chart again
But I'm not I don't control that all I do is I control what my eyeball see and you know
What my trigger finger does do I buy do I sell do I hold do I say in cash? So again, you know, I know
There's gonna be some other talkers and I'll try to be on listen all emo jackets is out there
I got it. I would love to hear what he has to say
But I'm gonna I'm gonna peel back and let everybody else speak but look I'm still very supportive of my Bitcoin family
I love them and there's nothing like digital currencies
And I'll tell you if you want a wild ride just just get on the train with crypto because it'll definitely speed your heart up
But wabi, I thank you for letting me speak
People only want some assets only after they rally hard and I'm telling you this man as an individual that
On my personal profile. I am very loud about my bags. I
Reply guy about my bags. I interact
With with the community that loves my bags and you know recently like I've been asked like man
Do I buy do I buy do I buy from people that have just been radio solid and I'm like brother
Why do you want x ticker that has rallied like two thousand percent over the last months and not when I told you, right?
And these are got all G. It's human psychology
Crazy, dude, but it doesn't it doesn't matter how many times you tell people it's as old as dirt
You know people say oh, I'll buy low and sell high. No, they buy high they sell low
That's I'll buy the blood know when the blood's flowing you're scared to death. I'll sell it when it's near the top
No, you won't you'll be piling in with everybody else and probably leveraging yourself to the hill and that's why markets are made
They're made to to really I hate to say this to fleece the sheep
There are professionals and then there are sheep and at the end of the day
You got to figure out what you want to be if you want to buy into a narrative that Bitcoin is the end all be
All and crypto is a new revolutionary asset. That's great
But that revolutionary assets up tens of thousands of percent since its inception one of the best performing assets of all time
Think it not a strange thing that when the crowd comes out and blows all their money and throws it into the ETF that it doesn't
Drop twenty twenty five percent as the professionals are selling into everybody's giddiness. So again, I've done it long enough
I'm not I'm not an old fart yet, but I'm old enough to have seen several cycles be it stocks
Be it I've been in crypto for three cycles and and I know the euphoria that comes people think they can avoid it
It's like a gravitational black hole it will suck you in and it will take your money with it
So again, does it mean I do I hate Bitcoin? No, do I hate Tesla? No, do I hate Microsoft?
No, well, maybe it may be the founder. Do I hate you know, whatever
No, if we're trading cow turds man or cow dung if it's moving up and down in price and I can chart it
There's a good chance. I'm gonna get it on a sale and I'm gonna sell it at a pretty high price
I don't care what it is. You're trading
Market psychology charts and at the end of the day fundamentals ultimately matter and fundamentally this market
We got people in highest credit card debt ever you've got these sovereign nations that are printing money like drunken sailors, you know
It all comes crashing down. So not yet. Not tomorrow. Not next week. Probably not next month, but soon
The tables return and and you're already starting to hit
You know kind of get hints from me as to where I believe the second half of this year goes
But for the Bitcoin group, I know Jack has had his hand up
I want to hear him cuz I know I've got to jump in the car and roll but Jack is man
Chef Jack is go ahead man. Welcome back brother guys
Hope you guys have been enjoying the space go ahead and give us a fall if you have yet
We're because Bitcoin we're a crypto financial media company that loves to produce livestream content for you guys Monday through Friday here on X at
424 30 p.m. Eastern time. I'm your host King lab
You were here joined by mr. Spread JT our very own chef Jack is and Joshua Drake
And we're discussing what's going on in the equity markets and in the crypto markets as we always do
So this is your first time you've been enjoying what we've been talking about over the last 30 minutes
Go ahead and give us a follow go ahead and follow that giant yellow square
And if you want to join our community links to our community are in our bio. So Jack is what's going on, brother
What have you got for us?
Hey Bobby Jesus is it Friday already this week has to go has gone so too quick I suppose if JT is here
I'm not used to JT on the show on Mondays. So nice change actually, you know
Let's jump into the markets, right? So
I'll talk mainly mainly BTC and myself regarding that because that's the hot topic. Of course today
There's a lot of volatility a lot of fear around
Lots of lots of takes to be honest. So let's jump into that. Well, I'll start with
With my like her time frame narrative and then slowly scale it down to the current price and
That context is needed, right? So as I was saying on that week in October
Strong super strong weekly close and it was right on this show. We were right here
And I was saying this is probably the most important weekly close in in years because
We have reclaimed the heart and film range of 30 to 60 K and now we can spend you know being in this range for
You know for the maybe next year or even longer. We'll see we'll see about the timing, right?
We will take it level to level but the hard time frame take is pretty clean
Anything below 30 K is a hard time frame
Range deviation to me. We spent
500 days below that level it doesn't get cleaner than that
It's even cleaner than 2015 and 16 in my opinion
And this is the base case that everyone should write down right now
Seriously guys, you need to write that down and
Always keep it in the back of your minds that the 30 to 60 K range is the giant way accumulation
So when that happened in October?
2023 that was the major close that confirmed that for me both on the weekly and then obviously on the monthly too, right?
Here until you know, 30, you know, even if you would get like crazy week to like 28 K
But let's just call it, you know, 30 to 60 K range. There is some approximate variations for
For weeks, that's okay, but generally 60 to
30 K range that's the big one and that's the one I expect expect to hold forever if we ever go
below 25 K again, that's a
Big big bet. That's a big sell and I would expect
Breakdown, but you know until then I do not expect that to happen like just to be fair
If there would be a black swan and it would have to be a black swan then I could see a wig below 25
But it would have to be like immediately pulled back up just some, you know, some
Exchanges having no liquidity
Order book is empty and we see a big something in that regard except apart from that
I do not ever see us going below that 30 to 60 K range on a closing basis
basically, and this is very important to keep in mind that as much as
The BTC price is basically tamed by Wall Street these days
It's it has been for a while in my opinion, right?
Especially on the daily and sub time frames, you know weekly and monthly
We still have the big forces out there, but still, you know to a large portion
This market is being traded based on a liquidity and Wall Street and so forth
But on the higher time frame, you know 30 to 60 K range is the one to work with right?
and then I do expect at some point we flip that one and
Start a big bull market rally alongside in my opinion still with the commodities rally, right?
I think that like many things will line up there for the big BTC rally there at some point
Necessarily saying straight from here, right not at all. But at some point this is like the absolute
Backbone of any higher down frame analysis that you want to do on BTC in my opinion, right?
For that bull market. I still think we will have a lineup of
You know this chant reaccumulation that I call strategic 60 K ranch
You will have the institutions with the ETFs that have open boards. You will have the commodity confluence
You'll have the QE probably and there will be lots of things that are lined up for this one
So there's just some of the narratives apart from that mainly important to which the price action, right?
With that said, you know, there is a
Something great to keep in mind and that's something that I keep on preaching and it's the time
time is one of the most underrated metrics in the markets and
Too many people are not paying attention to it, but it's very very important how quickly
Right and when that's that's just it just tells you stories and
This cannot be underestimated. That's why I kept talking about the 500 plus day
30k, right it was two ranges
One was below 25 the other was 25 to 31 but all in all anything sub 30 500 days
It was relatively the same and that's what caused the big bull market as well alongside other things
But like speaking price-wise that was very important. And now we are
Slowly very very slowly actually the slowest in history
Okay, so we are very slowly grinding upward
Since the FDX bottom and this is very important
We are still at a very deep value area on BTC and so far
I am seeing a zero reason to be higher down frame bearish here
I'll talk about the local levels if I see like a potential pullback or whatnot what to look for
I'll get to that but first I need to lay out the these perspective and work with those
Otherwise if I just talk certain levels people will not get it, right? So Jack this let me ask you a question, brother
You know given given how many months you've been on the show, right basically half a year
The second the second half of this year right this rally, you know
We saw leading tokens like Solana and Tia lead the charge, right?
But since Christmas, right if you look at the way Solana had peaked
It basically goes hand-in-hand with IWM which is something that I've been talking about on the show for months now
The importance of IWM and you know the way it moves when we factor in, you know upside volatility for the crypto market
So what are your thoughts on some of these?
Leading assets that have since just been bleeding out very slowly since that time frame then even even with something like
Like like a Celestia, right the way that it tapped, you know slightly over $20
It was a pretty weak deviation, man
And you know the price action is telling man
So I'd love to get your thoughts on that man just so we can keep
Today's show a bit more like concise and wrapped up brother
I'll get into that Bobby, but first let me finish on what I what I was cooking, right?
Um, and then I can I can answer, you know, Sol Tia and and so forth
So as I've been saying this low grinned up because it's taking so much time is telling me that there is
Still further upside ahead and there are you know, lots of confluences out there
Uh, lots of lots of other metrics to to look at right?
Let's look at the meme crypto fear and greed index, right? So
Yes, right now. It's uh, it's around, you know, the 55 ratio by the way
It's based on yesterday's value. Not today. So I think tomorrow we drop below 50 because of today's fear
I still look at it around like uh
Like a like a confluence, right? And when I look at the market stops in 2019 2020 and 21
And each of those times the market rallied
Uh so high that we went to extreme greed we went, you know to from 80 to 95
Uh percent level this time around we only got max to 75. We haven't crossed 80
Not a single day. Like we never went to extreme greed
And this is in my opinion very important as well alongside the timing now, for example, you know, the
mv rv z score ratio, right? Uh
2016 we went to the two ratio in 2019 as well this time not so much
We are and this is one of the best metrics
undervalued or overvalued btc really is
Uh as it takes into account the miners, right and still very very cheap. So
The deep value area now. I see lots of panic around right now
As for btc, but the thing is that the trend is just intact higher down frame. The trend is absolutely
All the way as i've been saying even if we were to come back on the weekly to you know, 30k
And I do not think so. That's the case. But even if so
The trend remains untapped and challenged, right? So with that in mind, I expect further upside now locally
Okay, uh, that's where i'm heading right so locally. We want to watch the weekly clothes
and i've been saying that uh
Weekly clothes for me is very important to observe the 40k area, uh, the 40k level
It's not like precisely the dollar. I know if you were to close
That's uh, you know not the best but not the you know, like the big deal
Although I would rather love to see us close higher but weekly clothes here very important
Look for uh, if we close above 30k, if so
I would still expect further weekly continuation higher to do, you know, uh up to 60k
Level as i've been saying so and you know previously i've been calling for the 48k level
But what I would rather love to see is a distribution above that now. I think
This is a big bait still by the market, right? We swept the 48k today
a very ugly weekly camera rejection and that looks scary
But I think the market usually doesn't give the first bait to the shorters, right?
And I still do think we had above it to distribute to break the spritz to create a sentiment
Just I like just like I was saying on equities that we had to new all-time highs back in uh,
last year and then in the big scary drop in uh,
people questioned, uh those takes of mine and here we are right all-time highs on both spx and equities and it wasn't just
You know just some random
Uh bullish hoping that you may see from so many
People out there that are always just like bullish, right? They will say 100k bitcoin
next by you know end of the like end of last year we're saying or so
So that's not me. That's not me. Uh, if I am I
The reason I am is that there are
valid logical reasons behind it
One of those was that I was for example, you know for equities are saying that the market is just
Uh the most hedged as it has ever been for recession
Uh, there's too many side liners and if you want to dump the market you need to first, uh, make all these people
Close their hedges. You need to create the sentiment. It made sense from lots of other reasons
And here we are and I still think you know
Basically in my opinion btc right now is around that area
Spx and like equities in general where around that, you know, september october pullback
And I still do see us going higher. But as i've been saying, you know for me very important is to watch the
Close now if I you know, by the way, we have just filled the cme gap
Very important level in my opinion. I've been observing the cme gaps for a long time and they have very
Great relevance in the chart and are definitely ones to watch for right?
Cme now has the highest open interest in the market as per futures, which is uh,
Like it cannot no longer be taken as a meme in my opinion
It was it never was because they were always relevant. But now we got that fill right?
That's another confluence. Why I think we hold around this level
Uh another one it's inversely correlated to bitcoin
So whenever usdt dominance goes up, that means market downs and vice versa right now
We are in a heavy supply and I do expect that usdt dominance will drop lower to make that final push
Right, then i'll see the rotation surely, you know, but I do not think we are there
Uh now rate cuts right rate cuts are
Uh bearish at the moment they happen and they are long-term bullish, but rate cuts are you know, and as i've been saying
before it was that we will have just insane amount of
Great hikes and I was saying no, no, no
Then we had that we will have rate cuts and those did not
Those in my opinion are not happening as soon as the market was pricing now. It's around may
And I think it happens longer than that
But even had it happened, should it happen in may right that still gives you lots of months ahead
For the market to stay bullish and create that bullish sentiment to pick to put people on the wrong side
And with that I still think that the probabilities favor higher here, especially, you know btc
Obviously, you know the whole market the structure remains very good. Uh, whether it's easier whether it's bitcoin or so
Um, but yeah as I was saying should we get a close on the weekly on btc below? Sorry
Below 40k then I would expect we probably see a deeper
Longer with race for btc before further upside right but still generally speaking we are at heavy
Deep value area given how much time we spend going up here. It wasn't a straight line like in
2019 when we went, you know from the lows we went basically 300 up in a matter of a few months, right?
Right now we went since the bottom we went up, you know, nearly
200 which is 100 chart to 2019 but we did that in uh, you know, basically like more than a year and this is very important
Aspect that it's taking this much time, which is something that people are simply not taking into account now
That's that's the btc now. Bob you asked me solana you asked me
Solana in my opinion is the
The higher cap outperform of the cycle, right? So
Obviously, you know, you will always have to low market cap coins to outperform the high market cap coins
Just like you'll have btc outperform threat fine market because it's the market cap ratio, right?
So when we're talking about solana, we have to take into account, you know, ease link
Btc we have to take into account
Maybe bnb right, but that's about it
And these uh, I do expect that solana will outperform these I do not think generally from right here where we are right now
I think there needs to be a pullback to happen, especially on the btc and e-spare and I think
It needs to create that panic it needs to question people it needs to you know
Just like I was saying for equities
We need to go above all time high and create a police sentiment to lure people in so that smart money can dump their bags on them
I think same with solana. We need to break the spread that solana is the big
heavily positioned in solana myself, uh, and I was
You guys know that a big fractal of mine that I was sharing in may
2022 before the 80 percent dump then the accumulation then the upside so I am
Heavily in solana, but I do think that uh
We still need to create more panic in that market to request people spirits and forget about it, you know
I think right now the sentiment is uh
And I do not know if it needs to happen, you know as uh as like
More sideways slow bleed range or if there needs to be a quick panic dump
but I generally want to see a
Very negative sentiment in that market and people questioning, you know, like all the airdrops are gone and blah blah blah
So that's my take on solana Bobby and with dia in my opinion
That's the solana of this cycle. I think it will outperform solana as it's a low market kept coin
It will probably have a deeper pullback at some point
Where it like like before the big bull run, right? I I think this is a very common theme
Back in uh 2020 right and solana went from basically like
Six cents to to five dollars, which is very much the equivalent of what dia has done right now
uh, not saying it's going to be exactly the same but what i'm trying to say is that there was still an
80 job when it went from five dollars to one dollar and then from that one dollar it rallied to
Uh to 57 right from 57 then there was the make crash
That was another 67 job and then there was the last rally to obviously the market top at 250
Celestia is this type of coin for this cycle, but uh
You guys need to be prepared and be able to stomach the volatility, which I think many people are not because they are
Over leveraged they are not playing this but they are losing the sight of uh, the hard-earned frame, right?
but generally speaking man, uh, I
I am planning to make a big position on many coins like
Uh, and I have already some right, but I want to make it bigger
So some of those coins by the way guys, uh tia
or the right zef uh movie lots of these tokens i'm looking to get for because uh
There there is a lots of confluence. I do not have space to talk about right now. I see bobby already wants
I do want to go on record to say and i'll say this publicly man
I don't think celestia is the is the salon of this cycle because
To my knowledge they're circulating. Uh market cap is going to increase
They have a huge unlock happening in october and that's going to create an insane amount of dilution
So I I think with tia, um, and i i've said this quite a bit right on my personal profile
For tia, right was the tia soul pair, right?
You know, we couldn't even get over 20 with a slight deviation, but I think it's more in line with polka dot
right than salana from a percentage basis, so
So polka dot did a 25x right it went from two bucks to shortly over. Um
Just from a supply dynamic standpoint. I think tia is more in line with polka dot than uh, then salana
Um, good point i'll quickly add
I am not as I and you know that I said this many times in our private voice calls
I'm not going to try to play the smart s i'm going to make a position in all of those and one of them will be
Salana i'll put it that way
With a lot of these newer projects, man, they're raising
Little amounts of money but coming out at insane valuation, which is quite odd. Like if you raise
Um, you know 10 to 15 mil or you know, i've seen projects that i'm insanely bullish on they raise less than 10 mil
But their fdv is at like a hundred plus which makes no sense at all, man
I think if there's going to be any salana for this cycle, it's probably going to be something like nillion
Which isn't going to come out for like another year, man
Yeah, um jaw i'll bring you back up joe so you can get a word and brother
Um, I know you had uh, you had messaged me
I'm pretty happy with what's been going on, man
I'm i'm hoping we can get like a period of of chopping consolidation
Just so people can accumulate before the having right?
I think the worst thing that can happen is you know
We hit an all-time high before the having and then we just bleed out for the rest of the year
That's the max pain scenario
For myself, man, but just find it so odd man. Soul peeked exactly
Uh on christmas time josh, what's going on brother? You want to say something, man? Welcome
Yeah, no, I'm just gonna chime in for a quick second. I gotta hop off here soon, too
Uh, you guys like to talk and I love it. It's not a problem. It's actually really good for twitter
Um, yeah now, I mean honestly the only thing I would say is
I feel like everybody's gonna come out and start making these
You know price prediction against level points key levels what you need to watch fifty fifty
Is it gonna go up? Is it gonna go down? You need to watch this and just start really confusing the fuck out everybody
From my perspective is you know, I ended up being really really lucky on this unless uh on on the uh ETF announcement
Because of course, I don't know if you guys remember but I was someone that thought was gonna get postponed to march
So I actually ended up selling pretty much everything at the at the top here
Uh and got a discussed amount of heat for it and the primarily reason was just because of the hype
I mean it was just bloodthirsty
People drooling over forty thousand forty five thousand forty six thousand dollar bitcoin yatea arbitrum all these tokens pumping hitting just new all-time highs
You know up fifty percent in the frickin nights
Now markets are down by you know, bitcoin is down by twenty percent. We haven't seen a twenty percent pullback since
Man, it was like july to october and then before that yet another twenty percent back between april 23rd
Uh to may 23rd and you know, you're just gonna start seeing these callouts again
I think I get people saying calling for 38k calling for 34k. I've already seen a 28k
Bitcoin post today. That was you know, completely I was like, holy shit people already going that bearish off a little bit of a dip here
Um, you know, my only thing I would just say at this point is I just started
I want to start dollar cost averaging it. I mean we're at a point where someone brought up the fear and greed index chart earlier today
They're like, oh this is it's sitting at 55 the last time bitcoin's fear and angry
Fear and greed index was sitting at 50 was when it was at 27 000 and if you guys remember what happened at 27 000
Everybody was screaming that we had to go back to 20k because that's what would be healthy for the markets and we ended up
Keep bouncing off 25 30 bouncing off 25 30 and then we shot all the way to 48k and all the people that didn't buy it 25
Uh, you know 30k because they thought it was going to go to 20 just ended up sitting on the sidelines
So i'm at a point here where we're looking at charts. I'm on the the 30 day here
You have 40 down altcoins 50 down altcoins. I'm talking top hundreds 30 30 20 30
It's like of course we're gonna have volatility coming here in these coming weeks
But you know personally, I just believe we have
The spot bitcoin ETF launched the reason why it's selling off is grayscale bitcoin trust
Bought at a 50 discount all through the bear mark i'm talking
FTx collapse. Nobody bought at 15k. Nobody bought at 20k
These you know, these discounts came massively and now that smart money just sold against the dumb money here at 28 000
But again anybody betting against the feds you have markets hitting all-time highs
We're talking about in the earlier of the stream here
The correlation between the stock market and the nasdaq and the sfp is near identical with peaks and tops
You know for me, it's just honestly, I think it's simple at this point
I think the market psychology is having people indecisive
We're gonna have a lot of people coming out and starting to make calls and try to cover their butts saying you know
Maybe I predicted the top maybe I predicted the bottom and to me it just feels like 25 to 30k bitcoin again
You know, it's like maybe we do break down the 34k
But the amount of liquidity that's sitting down right there with the etf launch with the bullish narratives with the etfs coming out in
Potentially hong kong here just right around the corner, you know, maybe we get rate cuts in march
Maybe we don't you know, we have really good markets. Everything's at all-time highs at this point
You know, my question here is just like why are people shifting when we are at 48 000 bitcoin
50 000 bitcoin I live stream to thousands of people's a day the questions were should I buy should I buy should I buy
Now the questions that we break below 40k the narrative switched 180 completely
It's should I sell should I sell should I sell should I sell you have you know
A few people coming out saying I predicted this I predicted that we called it here
And the reality is the market sentiment and psychology of you know
If you're just looking at basic fear and greed here with that psychological viewpoint
It feels just like the 20k, you know level when we were in disbelief and all these traders were like no
We're going to go lower. We're going to all the people that were like 10k bitcoin 13k bitcoin
We need to go lower, you know practice just kept moving up in some upwards momentum
So personally here today, I would love to open up that conversation. Just on market sentiment alone
I know we got mad up here joe as well
Um, you know, I think the fundamentals are strong. I think obviously from a macro viewpoint
There's of course, you know going to be the conversation of rate rate cuts all year long
But you know, and i'm only 26 maybe haven't lived through as many market cycles. You guys have been through the oh eight
I've only had the opportunity to study it and see all the mistakes that were taken, you know back then
Uh, you know and learn from those hopefully but ultimately it looks like the fed's got with unemployment rates
What the way markets are reacting they could push those out the q3 q4 for all we know and that's that at
That point you're just betting against the fed
Um, you know on a on a potential black swan event that's unpredictable
So, you know for me we're right next to the bitcoin having the most bullish catalysts every single cycle
I think everything is bleeding at this point down 30 40 50 percent
I don't see why not the dollar cost average and just be in the market
All right joes up here right now man
I won't really speak for the rest of the space just because we have so many speakers up and
I want to get as much uh jam packed alpha in the time we have left as possible
So, uh, what i'm gonna do here is bring it directly to joe. I know he wanted to get some words in so
Tearment of the federal reserve man for 2028
Brother, how are you today, man? How tall are you now, man? Seven feet two seven foot three talk to me, man
Yeah, i'm a little bit shorter after the bitcoin pullback. I'm just kidding
2028 am I going to come in like midterm is paul gonna die in office and there'll be a reappointment
You're gonna you're gonna come back uncle joe's gonna come back and give us a qe infinity
And uh have zerp plugged in for us for a decade
Yeah, well, thank you I listen, um, I gotta I gotta tell you here
It is it is beyond me the amount of panic
A very modest correction in bitcoin that is long overdue in way extended for the last six months and
Confounding to me that you get upset about this when it was you know, clearly clearly that it's driven by
Within the conversion where everybody and their mother who understood how the etf functions
Is that the that grayscale had to sell significant amounts of spot bitcoin closed discount?
And and they're a massive seller and you know
If you look net net wall street etfs now own more bitcoin than they did before the etfs were announced
It's that simple. So to me, I think it's not even driven by that
It's driven by you know, what I think josh was alluding to earlier, you know markets have a way of causing pain
And there are people that were very much, you know levered up to the hills waiting for some god candle
It's a consolidation and a reconstitution of the etfs, you know
You you will continue to see gbtc bleed out
I think over the next few weeks and that's probably going to reduce some sell pressure
But you know, the good thing is once this is all wrapped up and resolved you're going to have much healthier market
You're going to have a better base of support to build into a bull run
And I got to tell you i'm i'm very optimistic and you know
The problem perhaps the most optimistic thing that i'm looking at has nothing to do with bitcoin
It's some of the economic indicators, which I don't know, you know, most people on this show
Don't want to look into that sort of thing. But um, we continue to see
Reacceleration along segments of the economy and get some good real estate numbers got some housing start numbers that look
Are looking pretty bullish, you know, there's projections from
National association realtors that look pretty optimistic moving forward and
Still this recession that everybody keeps calling for is nowhere to be found and not at issue in the data
There was a comment earlier. I don't know. I don't remember who made it
But somebody about the credit card data, which is really fascinating because we got bank of america and chase
JP morgan chase data which shows that the
The it's kind of mind-numbing
80 of the additional credit card data that has been uh accrued in the last year 80 guys
Is driven by the top not not 10
So the eight it's it's a mind-blowing stat this everybody keeps showing sharing this step this uh credit card data exploding
You know why because people with a lot of money are putting a lot of things on credit cards because they're bullish about the economy
Um, that is not a not a bearish indicator at all. They're actually expanding credit ratings
Um, and it's it's in the data, right because they're optimistic about on a going forward basis of the economy
so, uh, you know, definitely not uh
Anything on the horizon that should give you pause and certainly not in any of the traditional indices which are all you know
breaking out towards uh in legacy markets out to new all-time highs and uh
Um that combined with the fact that we've got this one little hurdle to get over
Which is the tga getting refilled and finally, you know closing that off
Um once we get to the end of this month and we get the quarterly refunding announcement and see if you know
Janet Yellen puts the the pressure
On us with more coupon issuance or more t-bill issuance. Um, that could be dispositive
I can tell you this markets are going to just absolutely rip like they did coming out of october
When she elected to uh, you know do what she could to support markets by not issuing more coupons
So, uh, I gotta tell you I mean it's definitely a lot to be optimistic about here
Um, I don't understand the bear narrative. Um, maybe it's just impatience or frustration, but uh,
Um, you know can markets trend sideways but solid a for a short period of time? Absolutely. They of course can
Um, but man, I mean you're seeing plenty of indications that we're in for a heck of a run
Over the next six to twelve months and uh, i'm pretty excited
I mean what I would what I was waiting for was this sort of
green shoots they used to call it a
Great acceleration in some of these industries and I think you're finally getting some of the economic data to support it
Um that combined with I think you know what you're seeing in in the the long bond
The sell off the long bond. I would not be surprised at all if long end rates
Make new cycle highs by the end of this year. Uh, if you're getting a 10 year above 5 percent
I know joseph joseph wing has that I think uh, jeffrey gunlock also expects that you know the bond king so
Um, you know definitely interesting interesting times and lots of very, uh, you know, um, uh profitable trades
I think on the horizon here
Great stuff job. Mr. Spread. Do you want to go to warden brother? I know it's getting pretty late
On your end man. You haven't had a chance to speak yet. It's good. Wabi. Thanks for for bringing me up
Actually, it was very nice because I really wanted to listen more
And I just wanted to see was the feeling in the market and I see it's quite mixed
But for some reasons, I don't understand why it's mixed
Like I said in the beginning of the year. I'm not gonna look at macro so much. That's it
It was too much in my framework
It was around 15 percent. I cut it to around 5 from my framework
And i'm just gonna let the price lead so I really don't understand why we're talking about recessions
At all time highs with index eggs in the legacy markets
I really don't understand why there is so much panic in crypto when bitcoin is still about 40k
Heck even if bitcoin drops under 40 if it goes to 30 35 as long as it stays about 32
I have no jitters and I really think that every pullback is actually healthy for the long-term trend on higher time frame
And again, it's like come on like I don't know some people
They I don't want to be I don't want to be rude or something
But bitcoin does this in all bull runs and this is not even officially a bull run
I mean the bull run didn't even started we just went out from in between phase between bear market and a proper bull run
And this kind of pullbacks about 30 35 percent happened
How many times three four times during the full bull run?
So give this in mind that this is just a healthy consolidation after a lot of a lot of these indicators were really really extended
I was listening to joe. I think at the beginning of the year and he says something regarding home builders
Since then I watch home builders since then I watch pull tech group because I was shorting pull tech group
And it was a very nice short in the beginning or in the end of last year, but pullton right now is just reaping
So there is a lot of indicators that
Now this does not mean that we should go and we should leverage our houses and get three mortgages and we just go all
For long leverage on risks assets, right and like on shit coins or altcoins
But in the same time I don't see
not not necessarily bearish mode or negative mode, but
It's it feels like it's a lot of anxiety and confusion. Although the charts are clearly there. I mean
I even posted something regarding japan
The japanese index which was creeping higher since the covid crash and it was flying under the radar
I like to call it the the cloud breaker. It has a very nice name in japanese
Um just hit a value that it didn't touch in
1987 so keep this in mind and it's like three percent from the all-time highs
But this is just pure price action when we're going to see smp
Dropping under four thousand four hundred when we're going to see down jones pulling back and breaking some weekly
Structures and we're going to lose this bullish wiki structures and bitcoin going under 32 k. Yes
We can think for I don't know some weird cycle that just ended there
But until then I just really think that this pullbacks are healthy. The dollar is still contained
I don't see the dollar really rallying until I we don't see it above 105.3. So the dollar index and all in all
I still think that the european central bank and
Bank of england bank of canada swiss national bank they're gonna lag behind
behind the federal reserve
So if they lag in policy like they lagged when they were hiking and they're gonna lag when they're gonna cut
It means that still the dollar is going to be contained. I I really don't see any reasons short to medium term
Besides the black swan and if anybody can model a black swan and can tell us where when this is going to happen
I also have some some spare money that I can give to that person. But until then nothing changes until nothing changes
Matt what's going on brother? Welcome back
Hey, hey, yeah, thanks for all the things showing me up. Um, yeah, I find myself agreeing a lot with mr. Spread and joe
Every single time it seems like people are way too
hyped and bullish at the top of your range and then they're just depressed and sad
Fighting each other at the bottom of our range
But I mean we're still within the same sandbox. We're still within the same range. I'm really
Not worried about this pullback just like joe and others
Unless you have daily clothes below 38k
Just like last year in 2023
I don't I don't remember how many times we ping ponged between 25k to 31k into 25k to 31k into
25k and then we finally ripped and busted a hole through the ceiling
It's very similar to right now very similar
I mean, I would not be surprised if we ping pong between 38k and 45k, which is about a 20 percent ish range
Uh, just like bitcoin has tended to trade for the last two years going on
You could literally ping pong like that from here for another 90 days into the halving and it would be totally normal and healthy
Maybe no, it's crazy brother. You know, what's crazy, man
This environment is really reminiscent
After that after that dip that we had you remember on august 17th
And then we just grabbed around for eight weeks and I mentioned this on friday and that's the beauty with these spaces, right?
They're always recorded. They're under our highlights tab. Anyone can go back and
You know, I was mentioning on friday
And I was saying like, you know, we have all these assets that are up over the last, you know, eight to ten weeks
What if the trend until 2025 is just?
Six to eight weeks of upside volatility these small pockets of six to eight weeks of upside volatility followed by a flush
redistribution and then some crab
right, and I think the number one thing that people are going to remember this year is
man, I should have just survived until 2025 because
Even if this year right which I believe I think we're going to be closing
The year to date on bitcoin and other majors in the green
I just think in between there's going to be a lot of ruckus a lot of shenanigans
From the hooligans from the powers that be right?
Like if you're a member man, it wasn't too long ago where if you had like a 2x long open on any altcoin
You basically got flushed right even on even on bitcoin, right? Like the well, here's the but here's the danger
You say you're absolutely right to compare it to
But here's the danger until bitcoin
Well, hold on. Hold on until bitcoin finds a bottom altcoins have no bottom
So until bitcoin found that yes 25k is is support and it started accumulating there and it refused to fall farther
I don't I don't trade them, but you can look at salona and cardano
Like I know for sure that even though bitcoin stopped at 25k salona slid and bled another 15 20 percent
Avax bled another 17 percent cardano. So that's the danger. That's the thing like, okay
You if you want to trade that awesome go for it, you know, knock yourself out
But until bitcoin finds a bottom these altcoins have no bottom and then the second point
quite frankly, I think you're finally starting to get some oversold levels with bitcoin, but
Not quite there. Honestly
I mean just dca is the easy button. That's the easy option
But um, i'm putting a reminder to myself and alerts to myself
10 days out because I want I want apple. I want microsoft. I want google. I want amazon
I want all these blue chip major companies to post that. Oh, yeah
We made billions and billions in fourth quarter in the holiday season. I don't know why y'all were bearish
We sold we we made a killing
I want all of that data to come in from earnings. I want another couple of weeks of yeah, the job market is is
Uh have been coming over have been coming in at some of the lowest levels we've ever seen in 18 months
They're sub 200k last week. That's that's
If you don't follow it, that's extremely low
Uh, I want all of that in in the wind in the at our backs wind in our sails
So then bitcoin bulls feel very confident to step in and long 38k or long 39k
That's that's perfect timing for me and I see that as like, okay, call it early february about 10 days
You'll already have apple google amazon
Meta tesla's two days from now, you know, you name it they'll all have reported and so there will be
That's the point where the bears literally have nothing left to hang their head on until we do it all over again next quarter
so matt, so what what what you'd say is
Perhaps we repeat the same sort of price action for q1 as we did last year. We have a
Melt up as we did last year if you remember that rally sure
Yeah, why not because I mean what's what's changed, right?
I mean unless you're literally younger than three months or six months old. It's still all the same market participants
Like it's still the same people. It's still all the people still the same people buying xyz token. It's still the same people
Buying and longing bitcoin
Chartify, yeah, okay, they're they're spot ETFs are seeing inflows, but they're they don't they're not the mover of the market yet
Obviously gbtc outflows is moving this market more than the inflows are so
Yeah, it's but yeah, sorry. Yeah
Gary what's going on man? I saw that you requested. How are you bro? Hey, man. Good show. Good show. Good. Good to see everybody
I agree with almost everything I've heard
Look, I think we we need to be really honest with ourselves. I
One could never have sharded this market going into the ETF because it has characteristics
That I don't think anybody's ever experienced so to go shard into this deal. I think you
Much braver man than me and I have a bias that wants to be long on this particular trade
That but what what did what did I learn from this one? The fundamentals haven't changed whatsoever if anything they've improved
shame on me for not really understanding how the ETF would
Various, you know players and some of the arbitrages that could impact the price which
There's clearly some demand here
If we remove the GBTC issue, I'm a little stunned that nobody caught this
I'm sure somebody caught it, but I I definitely did not see it
So I'm disappointed that we haven't seen this pop and I think that's an industry kind of
Similarity, so we're all kind of like it was like joe introduced himself. Well, I'm two inches shorter
Um, you know only for this moment in time the guy that's really getting hurt like
Jo talked about interest rates
And this is crushing the middle guy. I mean
Uh, super, you know subprime is paying
24 plus percent on credit cards and a guy like me with a super prime rate of 740 he's paying 16 18
so like if people are buying Ferraris
It may have not shown up yet
But dude, like I don't have any of this interest rate. Okay, like not not a penny of this stuff
Um, and if it's truly going critical, I didn't see the report
You guys said like maybe we're gonna wake up in six months and find out there's a lot of issues
With the consumer, you know this and the and the rich consumer because I think we've milked the poor guy pretty much
For all these worse, so you're gonna have to go to that second tier
Um Gary, I think you're gonna see in two days though when tesla reports their earnings because I mean quite frankly in my opinion
Tessa is your upper middle class or your richer car. Yeah, I agree
But if they're buying them on debt, uh, because I don't disagree. I think google's gonna report. I think everybody's gonna
report making a lot of money
But the debt number has to be shown for the consumer, right and the miners
Dude, the miners have debt. The BTC miners have a lot of debt. They have to service
Uh, and everybody was hoping for this. Hey, we need another 20 grand
I my case has been that from
That was all ftx. Let's get the criminals out of the way
uh, and the rest of this has been
Uh, i'm into it. Okay, like I got into it. I wouldn't I actually love where we're headed
I don't understand why it's doing what it's doing, but I love that I get another three months
To load up more bitcoin and quite frankly if it went to 30
Like it may just be wanting to push all the little kids out. They're using leverage
And I do believe that is going to happen this year. Maybe this is right. The moment's going to happen
I think we could see more pain 38 man. I cannot believe i'll get another chance about 38
Or 35 so that that's my view on it. Let's not panic the fundamentals are here
And we have a lot more deal flow going in these etfs than we would ever had expected
Nobody believe this kind of volume going into it. I don't believe
Okay, it's great to hear from you brother, uh, mr
Spread I understand you had your hand up first man, so i'll let you go and then we'll let joe go after
Yeah, thanks for that and thank joe for letting me first. Uh, I just want to go on record also to say that
Uh, I was wrong because I thought I didn't thought that we're gonna have a send the news event
And I think this is another thing that is lacking in this space not in this space
But I think in financial tweet and also crypto tweet more people saying when you know
Admitting when they're wrong and I was wrong because I thought that it's not going to be a sell the news event
And it wasn't using sell the news event. So I just want to get out
I want to get out this and another thing because people tend to forget and I think i'm going to trademark this
One of bitcoin's most powerful properties is to prove overconfident expert is wrong and in both directions
And right now a lot of people seem very very sure that we're going to go sub 30 those sub 38. Sorry, so please
When you're very short about the direction of bitcoin and this is something that I have printed on one of my monitors
Is exactly this that one of its biggest properties is to prove people wrong
And now another thing before I back it up to joe everyone talks about how big the cell pressure is from gbtc
But how about the power of the of absorption man?
Because i'm really impressed how well the price is absorbing this cell pressure and totally agree
Like come on like this is so obvious right now
And some people just disregard it's like bitcoin is still about 40k people
And look at what gbtc is doing for the last like what since the etf is launching
Man 40k in december is not the same as 40k in january. It is what it is
So yeah, it's it's like it's like it's like getting a six piece nugget meal you end up getting seven in november
And then you end up just getting a six piece
McNugget meal today, right?
It's the same thing that you wanted but in different contexts if i'm making sense, right?
I remember when we were crabbing around from 25 to 27, right?
Me and matt were like man, you know 40k end of year, right 40k by having that sound wonderful
Right and we ended up exceeding that
We ended up exceeding that and i'll tell you what man
Me personally, I was not bullish enough
Surprised so moving forward man. I'm just going to keep an open mind
I'll take what the market gives me if I wake up btc's at 32k
A brother, you know i've got just over 30 percent of mine at worth in stables. So
Um, i'll gladly back that up if we have a massive flush
You know if berry just ends up selling
You know similar to uh the selling that went on in june of 2022 bro. We got a 20 down candle. I find that based
But i'm not really positioned for that
And i'm just happy to be liquid
To be honest, man, but joe what's up, brother?
Yeah, thanks. So a couple things to understand that are really important if you're talking about the bitcoin market
Unlike the legacy market where you have very sophisticated deaths
Decks excuse me desks and you have uh, you know institutions that have deep pockets of liquidity both in the dark pool market
And on traditional exchanges you have a ton of buy side orders that prevent slippage both
Actually buy side and sell side orders
so you don't you still have some of it, but you don't have really this this sort of
Uh lack of buy side support and or you know sell side resistance as you do in bitcoin bitcoin and this has been
Well documented by many bigger players bigger fish that have tried to play in this market
Go look at comments from paul tutor jones. Go look at comments from stanley drutkin miller
One of the things they find incredibly frustrated about playing in the bitcoin market is that they can and acquire
Significant spot positions without slippage without moving the market
Even michael sailor has said, you know, one of his frustrations when he came into bitcoin
Was that he had to put he had to use effectively bots to purchase
I think he was doing 1.7 bitcoin at a time for weeks to accumulate a meaningful amount of bitcoin on the actual
Exchanges which are the most liquid sources of order density
And that he couldn't do it through otc because his advisors told him if he went to otc
Otc all the otc traders would front run him and go push the price up and he would still have the same problem
So he had to sort of you know, buy it slowly and steadily
Now that helps on the upside and the downside the fact that like, you know, you've got this order book
Which if you're bringing, you know
Like grayscale sending, you know tens of millions hundreds of millions of dollars worth of bitcoin to these order books
They can flush that order book very quickly
They can exhaust the buy side liquidity and they can put pressure on the price
Very very much so in the short term, uh to the downside and that's why you see the volatility. That's why you see it's all liquidity issue
Um, you know same thing. We go sailor sailor tried to liquidate these, you know
Billions of dollars worth of bitcoin right now
You'd see a cascade of prices just because nothing can absorb that in the short run
The reason I bring that up is that there are smart money right now
There are traders that are looking at what's going on with gbtc and they say when the outflows
End we're going to be buying and and and there's money sitting on the sidelines saying we're not going to bail out this market right now
We're looking for the bottom so that we can actually put on big positions
Why would we do that and work against ourselves to provide a floor when we don't need to?
Now eventually that changes with more liquidity into the spot market and that comes but you got to get bigger players in there
And that's not going to come overnight. It's not going to come, you know in the next week or several months
You actually have to have a reconstitution of the market, which I think we get, you know in the next, you know, two two years plus
Um, but you know all this is to say, okay
You know when you look at a market that is still as young and immature as bitcoin that has
potential from a buy side and
And it has a lot of negative impacts from the sell side just because it can't absorb a lot of price in the short run
But the emphasis is this is a short-term issue. This is a structural dynamic
And you know to gary's point we were talking about this
We were talking about how to close that discount there has to be selling sell side pressure
And the sell the sell side pressure from gbtc is significant right here
Um, but again, it's a temporary thing
And so you the final thing I'll just end on is like what is driving it? What is driving?
It's driving on two. It's really three things. Number one
We talk about the discount, right the way you close the gbtc discount
Which you couldn't close it when it was a regular closed-end trust
It was like the hotel california is you have to sell the actual bitcoin
You couldn't do that before the bitcoin like the hotel california was in the trust and could never leave now
It can leave now it can get sold now. You can close the discount
That's number one. Number two is you've got these bankruptcy proceedings where they're having to sell gbtc shares
Those are going to come to an end too
So that's going to decrease the sell side pressure of the shares which will stop and abate the sell of the spot
And then the final thing is you've got investors just saying look
I would much rather hold my money with black rock through ibit or fidelity than holding a gray scale
Which is an active litigation right now against the new york ag for potentially making fraudulent statements
You know who are you going to trust a major institution?
Like major institutions like fidelity and block rock or a gray scale and I think some investors are saying listen
I'm going to sell these shares right now
Which in turn will result in bitcoin selling but all the the important takeaway is that all that stuff ends at some point
It all comes to it's sort of like a structural, you know baggage
That is not a long-term problem with the bitcoin price action. So don't read too much into it
That's a great point joe and I mean, yeah
If you're that worried you can literally just sit on the sidelines and wait for the coin disc
Article that tells everyone and their and their grandmother that okay, the selling has officially ended
Um, but that but that's why i'm that's why i'm anxious and looking at
Uh early february. That's why i'm looking at
Uh the end of um the big tech and blue chips reporting their earnings because there's going to be smart money that decides
Uh, we're closer to the end than the beginning on this gbt sell pressure
Uh, call it a uh, a short-term area of the support around 38 39k
They're looking at scp 500 nazdak etc that they've already punched in new 52 week highs or all-time highs
Apple, microsoft, google, etc, etc. They're already they've already made
Another new 52 week high or all-time high apple once again is above 3 trillion market gap
So there's going to be some that are like, all right, screw it. We're not waiting. We can get bitcoin under 40k
Well guys, I think today has been a pretty constructive show I want to thank mr
Spread jt jack is scary. Is there anything else that you guys want to bring up before? Uh, I officially wrap up today's show, man
I just want to say a big thank you to everybody and i'm very very humble and blessed to be here
And I want to thank whatever power is governing us on the universe call it whatever you like
I'm really really humbled to be here alive and to be in the spaces. Thank you guys
That's beautiful. Yeah, man. Appreciate you guys holding the show
I just would like to say this is the greatest trade in the history of mankind
It ain't going to happen tomorrow morning, but i've never seen a trade like this
It has enhanced my life just meeting guys like you
And I would dare say that at 44
54 or 74 there is not a penny built into bitcoin's price
For the network effect. We haven't even begun to talk about the value of me and joe becoming friends
A fucking currency did and we've never acted we're not competing with we're not doing business with each other. It's
Unbelievable and not a penny is priced into
I don't think the next three or four years will be priced in until people begin to see
There's a lot of value for this infrastructure
So have a great weekend guys a great week. We're going to do great here if we don't get puked out
to what gary said, uh, yeah, like
40 you know 30 50 in hindsight it's uh
As I keep on saying guys, this is the greatest 30 to 60k huge
Reaccumulation range you are too zoomed in if you are if you are not seeing this the 30 to 60k range began in 2021
You know, maybe it lasts until end of 24 maybe until
2025 but at the end of the day, I believe this is the big range as in 70s on equities and then
It absolutely rallied, you know till the millenia, right? And this is where we are in btc terms. So
Do not lose the sight of the forest for the trees 60 to 60
Sorry, 30 to 60k range guys. That's the one play it
For your best and great talk today guys lots of great speakers
Yeah, man, we went out for almost two hours. So guys if y'all have enjoyed
This show you guys have been tuning in for the last two hours here on the show and you've enjoyed what you've been listening to
We are because bitcoin we're an online financial media company with a very heavy emphasis on all things digital assets
Throughout the weekday money through friday. You can find us here live streaming for you guys here on x spaces
Monday through friday at 4 24 30 pm eastern time with a little bit of wiggle room
And i'm your host king wabi and as you've been tuning in
We talk all things markets whether it's uh news events regarding the crypto markets price action dubious speculation
We cover it all and we enjoy speaking to like-minded individuals that have a passion
Um for really just talk and shop, man. We're just uh, we're just guys here and uh
It's been a pleasure spread jt jackass. Gary joe everybody else has contributed
And uh, feel free to follow us to keep up to date with all of our shows and we also host a youtube show called market check
That's hosted throughout the week at 11 a.m. Eastern time for those of you that enjoy
A uh a visual representation with charts and all those things feel free to check out our youtube channel
And if you want to get in touch with myself
Jackass or anybody else a part of the because bitcoin team we have an inner circle community
Link to that is in our bio. So, uh in our inner circle community
We go into two chats one in the morning at 9 15 a.m. Eastern time
Shortly before the new york open and the second one at
3 30 p.m. Eastern time shortly before the new york closing
And uh, feel free to message us if you want to uh have an invitation for that
It's less than five bucks a day. So feel free to check that out. We're very very active in there
We cover ordinals really the broader crypto
Market, you name it. We've got it. So feel free to check that out and also don't forget to check out bb terminal
I'm gonna go ahead and uh post that into the nest that's going to be releasing
So posted that up on the nest
So if you want to if you guys want to have a trading terminal you want to test it out for our beta in the next
Including the terminal it will be having portfolio tracking derivatives data heat maps and order book data on chain wallet tracking
Uh higher time frame macro indicators back testing crypto aggregated trading order routing custom orders. You name it. We've got it. We're uh
Gonna add a ton of value to the crypto space man
And it's truly been an honor to be a part of this company for just over a year now
And we're just getting started man because bitcoin will be a household name by the end of the year
uh, so if you guys want to get in at the ground floor for bb terminal want to check out the beta testing go ahead and
Follow bb terminal posted the link up on the nest and uh, you can sign up on our website
Uh to be included in the beta and if you want to test it out before anybody else
Feel free to join in on our inner circle links to all that stuff is in our bio once again
So mr spread jt jack is thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you guys for the support without without the speaker panel
Without you guys in the audience. None of this would be possible
Um, I am nothing without my lord savior. Jesus christ
Uh, all the successes that I have brought towards this company is solely because of him
So god willing i'll be back with you guys tomorrow at the same time and once again
Survive with the 25 and may the candles be in your favor guys
So as always this space is recorded
Take care. God bless you and feel free to follow us to keep up with real-time financial market news data
And with a lot of our shows take care. Bye. Bye