Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
Market Talk- BOTTOM IN FOR BTC?! CRYPTO GREEN AND STOCKS RED?!
Recorded: March 9, 2026 Duration: 2:56:33Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Music Thank you. Don't look down, just keep your head And are you finished?
Oakland, yeah, man.
Pass the point of no return.
Reach the top, but still you gotta learn how to keep it.
It don't really double the stakes.
It's right wide open like a plan of hell.
You can't catch the gates.
Let's get it.
Going for the back of the yard.
Nothing gonna stop you.
There's nothing that's wrong. But so close now. You're clearly at the brink. Oh, yeah. Welcome to the limits.
Take you maybe one step home.
I'll keep still playing so you better win it. Thank you. Oh, my God. Hello, who's into the family? Hey! No one left to stand in your way
You might get to tell us, but you'll never be safe
While you're fallingご視聴ありがとうございました Thank you. Welcome to the limit
Standing on the raisin's head
Don't run down, just keep going Oh Yo, what's going on, guys?
Happy Monday.
Happy Tuesday, wherever you are. Man, you know, the title of the space really is something else because I think five minutes later after I made the post, you had the S&P gap up by like 75 points. The NASDAQ also gapped up, and now we're green on the day.
And we'll see if this is the start of a bigger move.
I was discussing on the show how I think there's still a possibility for us to gap up,
how I think there's still a possibility for us to gap up,
even if we're going to range for a bit.
I do think we could gap up all the way towards, like,
I would say 76 to 82.
I'm not sure if there was a Trump taco today.
Trump always chickens out.
That term that goes around any time that he reverses course.
The price action on oil over the last week was insane.
Shout out to anyone who caught that oil call.
We were discussing that last Monday,
how there's a possibility that oil could outperform
similar to what silver did later,
earlier last year, earlier this year.
And who knows, maybe it actually continues to do something
like so well like what silver did a bunch of people uh went on over to hyperliquid to buy
this thing up it gaffed all the way to just under 130 not that far away from the 2022
high that we hit and that was absolutely insane man and shout out to those who um got into some
of these derivatives concerning oil like an exxon and um some of the other names i know prometheus
and a few others were here on the show discussing positioning uh back in january back in January back in January and what a move that has been relative
to what's been going on to the broader market there really hasn't been anything that has offered
that amount of volatility to the upside and speaking of volatility crypto as far as the
majors go have offered an incredible amount of volatility and
that's something that we've been discussing here on these shows over the last few weeks so
i think um the first thing i'd like to see is honestly a weekly close above 74 which is our
march 2024 high and we could end up gapping up and making new range highs here,
and hopefully some new launching opportunities arise.
But I think I'm going to pass it on over to the other speakers first and kind of get their thoughts.
But I'm feeling pretty great. I am feeling great.
As long as there's volatility. I am extremely happy as long as there's volatility. There's something to do in the market. I'm extremely happy. I know there are some people that probably bought some calls on oil last week that are sitting extremely, extremely pretty or even zero days because oil essentially went up only every single day last week so
people are printing people are absolutely printing in this market so anyways show some love to the
space guys welcome back to market talk brought to you by bb my name is wabi we're gonna go ahead
and yap before you get started guys just click the spaces tab right above our profile pictures you'll see uh that nice link
that says x.com slash i slash spaces hit the like button hit the retweet button brings more people
in here brings more brand awareness and all that good stuff if you guys want to come up and talk
markets feel free to hit that request button as well i I'll go ahead and bring you on up. I usually do this on Fridays, but on days where volatility is insane and volatility is insane today,
I like to see what other people are looking at.
It's not every day where you have the S&P reversed from being red on the day by over a percent
to green by almost 2 percent going into the close
and that's uh that's insane i love this man but um ai guy what's up man how are you doing how's
your weekend what's up man i before i begin i just want to say rest in piss to the bears uh i had my mentions were flooded with people saying you know bitcoin's
going to 20k 30k 40k uh you know like it's over everything's going to zero and uh i'm pretty sure like 50% of them were bots. But I was just laughing the past few days.
And, you know, I had like chart squigglers and all sorts of people
fighting the best data center companies in the entire world saying,
hey, Iron's going to go to 15, it's going to go to 20.
And I told him on your space, I was like, 34
has incredibly strong support. It's not going under 34, right? It didn't go under 34.
It might've touched it in the after hour session. I don't know. I don't even count that.
But we had a nice rally off of that today. And I'm feeling bullish. I mean, I've always been bullish. I think we're
still in this AI super cycle that most of crypto Twitter is not participating in because they're
down 90% on their meta planet, their MSTR calls, their ASST, ETC, right? Like sentiment is down and I think sentiment is going to continue to be piss poor until
you see Bitcoin in the 80s, which could happen any, you know, over the next few weeks, right?
You know, I'm feeling good, right?
Like my focus right now is on growth and it's's primarily been on growth since I've been on X, right?
And I've been active since, I don't know, 2022 or so on this account. And the only growth plays I
see in the market are AI related, right? And I've been shilling these entire NeoCloud,
been, you know, shilling this, these entire NeoCloud, formerly, you know, Bitcoin mining
stocks for the past few years, and they're the only ones winning, right?
Like all the crypto equities are tanking relative to that.
The only people are winning are the ones that have, you know, listened to me for the past
few years, right?
And I'm still waiting for the big 50% drop from here, right? Like,
where is $15 IRN? Where is $20 IRN? Like, I just don't see these prices these bears are making up.
And it's so laughable, right? Like, this one transvestite, Serenity, right? Like, right like is is bear posting saying the six billion dollar atm is is is is an automatic
50 dilution to the stock but these motherfuckers have no idea how an atm works there's they're
not creating 50 of the shares in a single day and dumping on uh you know, on the market, like this is not your father's, your
cousin, your little cousin's shit coin, right? Like, this is a real company developing real
infrastructure that's generating real cash flows, right? Like this, this concept of making money is foreign to a lot of these noobs which
is not surprising right because they haven't made money ever uh but you know this time is different
right like this time is different when the bears get loud and and the logic does not make sense. Like these 20K, 30K, 40K BTC calls,
like this is ridiculous.
Like I don't know who's funding this campaign,
but it's, I mean,
the tourists that actually would believe this garbage
are not on your spaces
because I feel like the people that are still tuning in,
engaging are still somewhat afloat, right?
I think most of the tourists have been gone and washed out back in, I don't know, since December, right?
December, January, February.
So I'm still bullish, right?
I like to get on spaces and dunk on the noobs
from time to time. And yeah, man, I'm still focused on the next 10x opportunity, right?
And my strategy is very simple. I just accumulate great companies, great equities,
great equities and use that to accumulate bitcoin right like very simple yeah um
and I use that to accumulate Bitcoin, right? Like very simple.
spaces do offer some entertainment when uh there's been some downside i always find that
um downside is a lot more entertaining for people to to just have some group think and
talk markets and all that stuff.
Because in an up-only market, people just relax and they just go off into the sunset
and they just take on more leverage whenever there's a 10 plus percent pullback.
And I think during this period of the market since October,
well, there's been more downside than upside,
despite the opportunities there have been for select plays,
whether it was a SanDisk or a Coca-Cola or an oil.
One thing that really baffles me is how people can say that Robinhood
is going to fail as a company and go down like 95 plus percent or
how Bitcoin is going to be below 10k. There was one guy in the 2022 bear market I think it's
finance a lot or something like that he would draw these like great depression fractals and they would get like 5,000 likes which
is which is insane really and I think if BTC were to go under 10k you have a lot
more problems than just BTC being down over 90% you have a lot more problems
you're talking about you're talking about an asset that's tied to
the the the best performing etf in blackrock history this thing has has generated in an insane
amount of fees for them you have companies that are worth tens of billions in valuation connected to this asset now and i just
don't think you're going to have consumer staples go up into the right while the s p bleeds down 30
btc goes below 10k that that's that's insane it's like saying ai stocks and ai related companies
are going to go up and to the right and ai is going to destroy everything else in the economy
that's not the way that's not the way shit works um and speaking about you know jobs and all that
stuff i'm sorry if i'm saying you know i really that. I'm trying to do my best to work on that.
But if AI jobs go up and to the right,
you're going to need more demand because, one,
AI depends on water production.
You're going to need more blue-collar workers.
So for every job that AI takes, it adds two more jobs in blue-collar.
You're going to have more demand for blue collar and trade
jobs.
And that's what people don't understand.
You're just, AI is just going to clean up house with the jobs that were added during
QE and Zerp.
And even those jobs, a lot of those layoffs in the tech space, they're given like two years worth of severance plus a bonus,
plus all their equity with their private stocks are going to be unlocked and all that stuff. So
it's not like these people that are getting laid off are going to be left to fend for themselves.
No, they're getting severance pay bonuses, they're getting their equity unlocked and all that stuff completely invested so it's not like this 2022 inversion where instead of CPI going up into the right
it's unemployment going up into the right and there are all these consequences um but anyways
Matt what are you saying bro how are you man what are you thinking, bro? How are you, man? What are you thinking about this price action?
Crypto has been outperforming stocks for the last couple of trading sessions.
We're going towards near range highs.
Rather, I think the best term is we're going towards the upper mid-range, which is $69,000, $70,000. And more importantly, this insane reversal in the equity market that happened in less than 10 minutes, man.
In less than 10 minutes, the algo's fired up.
I'm not sure if there was a taco or something like that.
But what are your thoughts, bro?
How was your weekend, by the way?
Ooh, looks like my Wi-Fi is coming in and out. Give me five minutes. But what are your thoughts, bro? How was your weekend, by the way?
Ooh, my... Looks like my Wi-Fi is coming in and out.
Give me five minutes.
I'll come right back.
Let me just get this going here.
Okay.
No problem.
Norton, I'll send you an invite to speak if you want to talk shop.
Ghosty, how are you doing, man?
Welcome.
Go see, are you there?
If you're speaking, you're on mute, man.
Hey, what's up, Wavi?
Thanks for having me.
Yeah, I don't know if you guys remember, but I was pretty bearish on ONDS. I was talking about that ONDS was in a bear flag channel. And actually, we already started breaking down on that one. So that was a good short setup that I was talking about that in the previous phase.
Yeah, I don't know if you guys remember, but I was pretty bearish on ONDS.
in the previous space and regarding bitcoin actually i posted yesterday why there was a
high probability of of bouncing from this level i'm gonna i'm gonna share with you guys why
oh it's not letting me post something on the on the next lobby
yes spaces sometimes are are like that sometimes they. Sometimes they just lag a lot, man.
I'm going to put it on the comments so you guys see.
Because the stablecoin chart gave a clear confluence combining Bitcoin
because Bitcoin was in a key support demand zone.
And the stablecoin chart was signaling a key resistance zone. So that was a high probability trade I was talking about in other spaces. I mean, you guys didn't open a space yesterday. But yeah, man, I'm printing on those two calls. Let me know if you guys see the analysis on the comments. and something i'm seeing uh potentially playing out
on the qqq i mean uh i'm seeing like a rounding potential rounding top like an inverse uh coupon
handle pattern so i'm watching that closely to see if that could potentially play out um
so that's something to watch out um We're potentially creating like the handle in the next coming weeks, days.
Just wanted to point that.
Okay, so you think this is just like a complacency bounce?
Just like a short squeeze or something?
I mean, we could still, of course, bounce more, you know?
Things take time to play out.
I mean, we're not going to go down in a straight line.
Normally things take like time to play out in I mean, in general.
So that's something I'm watching that to see we found that potential pattern
on the SPX we brought we were we were bouncing on SPX.
We were bouncing from
surely three times from a key support and we recently broke that to a downside so
it's not looking good i mean in my opinion
what's up guys what's up wabi
it's been a while. How have you been?
Yeah, man. Man, crazy, crazy.
Just been busy, very busy lately.
That's why I couldn't join
past spaces.
But, yeah, I'm also
on pretty low battery, but I just wanted
to join in real quick
just to talk shop a little bit.
Yeah, I wanted to ask,
man, like,
are we bullish or bearish? Like, what's the sentiment just to uh talk shop a little bit yeah i wanted to ask man like um
are we uh bullish or bearish like what's the sentiment right now because i think sentiment is still pretty bad yeah it is man there's really nothing happening in all coin
land i like for me personally like like just as a an individual like just dollar cost averaging hyper liquid and some robin hood
that's like something that that uh that just i've been i've been doing like small trades whether
it's oil sandisk stuff like that little plays on chain like any game that i do make in this market it just goes towards hype
and hood um and even if there is like a ton of more downside which i do think the probability
of that um at least for all coins is higher than not um and if i'm wrong I don't really give a shit because I'm mostly thinking...
I've mostly just been looking for opportunities to play the long side and not the downside.
So it's either I do leave small opportunities and add to my bags or I'm just completely flat.
I think that Hyperliquid is as easy of a trade as ETH was in 2019 and Solana was in 2022
and I think what happened with oil over the last week and
silver earlier in the year is
The thesis for hyper liquid you had people going on hyper liquid making new accounts
Bridging over to crypto from Trot to play in 24-7 markets.
So, like, there's a long-term bullish thesis, but short-term, I mean, I think the probability
of cycles, cycling, is strong, stronger than it's ever been.
stronger than it's ever been there's usually these rallies that happen in
in March and in April when it comes to the the year before the pre-halving year
so I could see us going towards like anywhere between 45 to 58,
which isn't really that big of a drop, honestly.
Especially if you've been in the market since late 2017, like I have, that's really nothing at all.
It's just more towards if you like to play beta
and add to your stack, whether it's money,
whether it's Bitcoin, those opportunities are still capped.
And, you know, we look at some of the stuff on chain, like we've talked to you on the show, right?
You had white whale peaking at 220 mil market cap.
You had the penguin coin top out at 150, punch topped out at 50 mil.
out at 150 punch topped out at 50 mil um and there really haven't there really hasn't been
these runners that we saw last year the year before because majors unfortunately have been
in a downtrend for a while you look at things like solana um that have been in a downtrend for
over a year now um and ethereum i mean ethereum looks like it can go all the way down to $900,
but I could be wrong on that.
I'm not positioned for that.
For me, I think I'd rather wait until, number one,
Bitcoin, ETH, and SOUL are above their yearly open.
And at that point, I put my positioning would be more aggressive
On chain, so that's kind of where I'm at right now and wait wait
Just jump in real quick. So so do you mean you would still?
Would you start entering alts?
Now the only all coin man that I'm that i'm bullish on right now in this market
um is hyper liquid simply because if look man if people are gonna give a shit about our market
hyper liquid needs to succeed in my opinion i just don't buy this whole thing that michael
saylor is the reason why people are gonna buy into BTC, buy into crypto and all that stuff.
And as much as Maxis don't want to admit it, like you need other stuff outside of just BTC.
Just like in the 70s where you had all these boomers, not boomers, the generation before boomers, the silent generation criticizing tech, saying that the Internet's a fad how common people aren't
going to be able to afford computers for those that don't know i think a home computer was like
five thousand dollars four thousand dollars for just a basic for just a basic like dell
for just a basic hp computer um and in today's terms, that would be worth like a $70,000 computer, which most people
don't even have 5K to deploy into markets. So I think that's kind of where we're at. I think
it's people who don't even know how to trade that just say it should only be Bitcoin, honestly,
and how everything else should just be wiped out only be Bitcoin, honestly, and how everything
else should just be wiped out.
I think it's kind of that same narrative.
When you compare it to tech after the Nasdaq formed in 1973, it's the same exact thing.
And it took people over 30 years to accept the fact that like, oh, you know, maybe there
is something else instead of just
gold miners right instead of gold miners and home depot and stuff like that um it took them
a minute i took them a fat minute so hyperliquid is going to bridge people from TradFi to crypto, and that's going to incentivize people to stay in our market instead of extracting.
So that's kind of my opinion, man.
I could be wrong, but yeah, that's my take, bro.
That is my take.
um if hyper liquid fails then i just don't really see how all coins are going to
survive for a while at least um and there are many people man believe it or not like they
they legitimately think that btc is going like sub 20 sub 10k and that we're not going to do anything for years like
like i think i think that's honestly engagement in farming um and i think it shows that we're
close to the bottom man because i've been seeing the same thing and it's pretty yeah every every
few years um when there is uh a trend to the downside that lasts more than two months,
you have these guys, these macro guys coming out of the woodwork or
crypto traders turned into macro people and they just prophesied doom. It's kind of like
inverse Willy Woo, right? How Willy Woo brings up all this like crazy macro data to the upside
um you inverse that whenever there's more downside that lasts more than more than two uh more than
two months and honestly like i could see something play out where we just range for a bit simply because we had a vol event on february 5th
um our previous vol event was 10 10 and even in 2022 right we had the ukraine war flush
which is vol event number one which which took us down to 32.
And that happened in February.
Our second vol event was Luna.
That happened like two and a half months later.
And then 3AC, that was our third vol event.
And then our last vol event was FTX.
So you had four vol events in the midst of rising CPI and some tech layoffs and just basic stuff like
that that people remember. The dollar was going up only and you had forex crises. You had the
Bank of England and Cathie Wood writing notes to the Federal Reserve to please not raise interest rates.
And we had the recipes for 2022 to turn into something disastrous, but it didn't.
We don't have anything close to that. All we have is AI replacing a few jobs that QE and Zerp created six years ago.
facing a few jobs that QE and Zerp created six years ago.
Maybe like some companies miss a few earnings.
And I mean, companies have been beating earnings for years on end.
And so sometimes you just have bad quarters.
Unemployment is a trend that's up and to the right,
probably forever now because of tech.
probably forever now because of tech.
And yeah, I just,
I don't really see us having four vol events.
I think best, like worst case scenario,
you have one more vol event to the downside.
And that takes us anywhere between 45 to 58K.
It could happen when we're trading at 75 80 82 could happen now um but that that's kind of
where i'm at in the market man um and i'm not really like trading for big moves i'm just not
i don't thrive in this market i don't um what are you doing in this market. I don't. What are you doing in this market, Norton?
Observing a lot. I'm just observing, looking at macro, looking at what Trump is doing,
trying to just see how long this whole Middle Eastern war is going to take.
I think it will end sooner than later.
Right now, for me, I'm 50% out and 50% in large caps.
As you know, I'm a big Tau supporter.
That position still has been holding up pretty well
compared to other alts.
But I have to be honest with you, man.
This is not what I was hoping for.
I mean, yeah, I was hoping for for better times but we're here now so it's all about uh
just making adjustments right and just observing and trying to see when we will um reverse but
what does make me bullish is is the sentiment i'm seeing i just see uh we're in that state of the market where people are just making
these silly predictions, just saying, like, once you see people saying like, okay, we're gonna
see a 12k Bitcoin and stuff like that, that just makes me bullish, right? So one thing that really
helped me with my trading strategy throughout the years is to, the trend is your friend right but once when
everybody is bearish it's also an opportunity for you to or at least for me to just keep a level
head right and just to to to look at what are strong projects for the next bull run.
And I think with all the thousands of coins and altcoins that have come out this past cycle,
I think there's just more value in positioning, not right now, but eventually positioning,
or maybe even now, in fundamentally strong coins, right?
So it's becoming a little bit harder for the average Joe, I think.
But if you do good research and you just, yeah, like you said,
you're a very bullish on hype
um i mean if solana were to touch 30 i mean also that for example i think would be a great opportunity
uh to get in because we're gonna we're gonna see alts run again and i'm an altcoin trader right i'm
not really a bitcoin eth trader i just i i just use the bitcoin chart to um
position myself for alts and to analyze the markets to see what alts will do but
yeah i'm a big time all trader but um yeah yeah and um like i know some people they've shifted over to, to equities and, um, I think that's
based, man.
A lot of people made money on memes and AI coins and really blasted commodities last
year and earlier this year.
Um, which I think is incredible.
I think all markets are going to merge into one.
I think all markets are going to merge into one.
I just think the thesis for hyperliquid is still not really seen by the greater majority.
You're talking about a platform that has generated close to a billion in net rev, and you look
at the NASDAQ, something that's been around for decades, and the NASDAQ only beat hyperliquid
by a multiple of six, which is insane man that's that's
insane um and you look at hyper liquid and you look at that compared to hood like dude hyper
liquid the hyper liquid does not have payroll. They don't.
Robinhood has payroll.
Robinhood has expenses to pay.
Hyperliquid does not.
And I think at some point in the next, like, two years,
you're going to have shitters on Hyperliquid,
just like on Solana,
where you have some shit coins going crazy every month
i think um same's gonna happen with with with hyper liquid honestly um matt what are you saying
bro you had your hand up bro how are you are you good now yeah yeah all good now. Yeah, I think that – wow, a lot there.
Was there a taco, man? Was there a taco?
I feel like it. That was certainly an absolute intraday reversal.
You're right at the close, at three. I'm looking, but I didn't really – nothing really – I mean, nothing really stood out to me. Trump made some comments that he thinks the
Iran war is very complete but like I don't know he's been
kind of making that similar comments all last week too.
I think things just got
over extended and a little crazy.
You know, oil was punching higher as if they were going to permanently close the canal and the Strait of Hormuz for the rest of our life.
You know, that was the fastest oil rise since the Russia invasion of Ukraine.
rise in since the russia invasion of ukraine and let's face it um uh iran u.s and iran is not the
same as russia ukraine that conflict still going on and this one i mean yeah i think that the you
know this is a conversation we were having last week where I didn't understand what the panic was anyway.
You had Trump administration coming out publicly offering over 20 billion in insurance for oil tankers and cargo ships to go through the street.
And they were saying, like, look, if insurance, insurance it's safe we're protecting it we're
keeping it open and if insurance companies won't insure your ship we will and I mean full faith and
and backing of the U.S. Treasury that's pretty good it doesn't you can't get you can't buy safer
insurance so I thought the panic last Friday and then over the weekend was over,
over, over done anyway. And maybe this is just the delayed, you know,
delayed reaction,
market makers and big money just wanted to let people capitulate in the
morning and then buy everything at a bargain in the afternoon.
Maybe it's just that simple, but you just that simple. But if we zoom out, I showed this up in the nest,
and you said something similar too.
People are comparing this 2026 bear market to 2022
for no better reason than that's just what happened last time.
And you're right.
This could not be more dissimilar. We had a little rise in
unemployment so far, but we're still at 4.4. And I remind anyone who's here in the bear market in
2022, we're watching CPI inflation go from 6% to 7% to 8% to 9% month after month after month.
to 7% to 8% to 9% month after month after month, we don't have some sort of gross macro
headline number like that right now. Sure, unemployment has rised, but it's rising by 1 unemployment, not 1.0 month after month. And obviously this administration and Congress
doesn't want to see any sort of economic downturn or spike in unemployment going to midterms. I
think this Fed would absolutely react if it starts to march closer to 5% over the summer.
And not to mention, J-PAL is about to give up the reins to Kevin Walsh
in just a couple of months.
So, yeah, people are comparing this 2026 bear market to 2022,
and you don't have any sort of evidence in earnings.
Like we just went through another earnings season,
MAG7, blue chips, tech stocks,
even the software stocks that are feeling the pain in their stock price right
now. They all had great earnings though. In 2022,
almost all of the MAG7, much of the S&P 500, they were missing earnings left and
right. And not just one quarter, not just Q1 or Q2, for almost the entire year, people were
underperforming or having to adjust and flat out missing their earnings throughout 2022.
That's why it was such a bad bear market for everything involved.
That's why we had such a sell-off across the board.
But we had a fine Q4 and looks like a pretty solid Q1 so far.
So yeah, to your earlier point, people are just lazily saying,
To your earlier point, people are just lazily saying, oh, well, Bitcoin had a negative 75% drawdown from all-time high last time. Therefore, it's just clearly got to go to $40K or $30K or $20K or even the ridiculous – I won't even repeat it who said it – but the ridiculous cost for $10 last week uh just because like those are all so dumb with because there's
no not not that price can't go uh to some specific number of course bitcoin price there's a possibility
that it could but you have to actually state a reason you gotta at least like what's your thesis
what just just because everyone uh gets
mind controlled and hits the big red sell button like what what is your thesis that bitcoin plunges
into the worst bear market in its recent history uh you know they'll they'll tell you they'll tell
you bitcoin has to go to you know sub 40k or sub 30k. But then they'll also in the same
conversation tell you, I don't see a US recession. I don't see an economic downturn. I don't see all
of a sudden, we go into a fiscal responsibility. I don't see the Fed stopping printing. Then what
are you talking about? Why would Bitcoin plunge off the face of the earth then so anyway
long uh long story short i um i'm i'm definitely not moving my goalposts um i i was saying 60k was
my price target my educated guess and i think that that's what holds when we check back in in
three months in the spring when we check back in in three months in the spring when we check
back in in six months in the summer I think we're gonna zoom out and realize like wow
that maybe maybe we retest it maybe we get a a little weekend wick but I think 60k is it this
we're in our bottom range and unless U.S. slips into a recession like it's just how close to 60k is it this we're in our bottom range and unless u.s slips into a recession like it's just
how close to 60k or 65k or 68k you can accumulate in 2026 and then um sit back and relax in 2027
and 2028 you know um it something interesting i was learning the numbers. If you just blind DCA'd 2022, you know, you could pick your timeframe, daily or weekly or monthly. But if you just blind DCA'd Bitcoin in 2022, you would have averaged about 25K of Bitcoin.
would have averaged about 25k of bitcoin that's pretty damn good for having no having no alpha
no ta no trading thesis you're just i'm just gonna blind dca it's a bear market and and uh
2022 actually you know if you go back 2022 started with bitcoin at $42,000, $43,000.
And we know where it ended the year. It ended the year at like $16,000, $17,000.
But truly, if you go back and if you just blind DCA to Bitcoin in 2022, you would have left the year with a $25,000 average.
And that's exactly the mindset you've got to have this year.
You know, i could be
absolutely wrong and we wick below 60k i could be i could be too bearish and we punch higher and flip
70k uh by the end of march year uh you might we not we might not get a second chance at 65k or in
the low 60s but you just got to be in the mindset of like, look, 2026 is a Bitcoin
bear market. And you've waited three years for that next chance to do it. Maybe you were here
in 2018, maybe not. Maybe you were here in 2022, maybe not. But you're here right now. You're here
in 2026. I was here for all those other bear markets and I'm not missing this opportunity. I'm buying. And I see the rest of the economy as a beautiful green light that the water is warm and the time is now.
earnings, Amazon and Meta, not finding customers for their products or their AI offerings.
If we saw what was reported? Oh, energy, energy stocks. I'm super bullish energy this year.
Energy can't stop making money. They're expanding and they're making more revenue per share
than ever. And they're expanding operations and they have more demand than ever.
Well, you can't have higher demand for energy and not have a growing, expanding economy.
and not have a growing, expanding economy.
If the economy was truly correcting or consolidating or shrinking,
you would not have an increasing demand for energy.
Those two things do not hold water.
So if you're at the energy market, and you name it,
NatGas, oil, nuclear, some of the cool fuel cell companies that are helping AI data center expansion.
But all of them are seeing growth, are seeing deals, are making more money this year than they made last year and the year before.
Well, if energy is telling you it's bullish, then that has to tell you fundamentally underneath the cover, the economy is still good.
So yeah, I'm bullish. I'm checking under the seat cushions and in the couch to buy more Bitcoin.
Last year was AI infrastructure up only. I think this year is AI energy up only.
And it's a Bitcoin bear market so give me give me all the bitcoin
you know i'm getting dms from people saying that i'm bearish or something well when you're
observing the market it doesn't automatically mean you're bearish just because i'm not buying
a ton of bitcoin doesn't mean i'm bearish, right? I just think not trading sometimes is also a good position to be in.
But I agree with you, Matt. I agree.
I think this is a great, great period to start DCA-ing.
I think we're closer to the bottom than we think.
I think the summertime is going to be fantastic.
It always is.
Matt, you've been here for four years now in these spaces.
Summer of 22, summer of 23, summer of 24, summer of 25.
There is always a rally to play in the summer.
I'm not sure where these summer doldrums happen because the only soul summer doldrums that happen is when vana charm ends
the first week of august we have a pullback and then people fuck off until the week or the week
after labor day that's something i've been saying here for like three plus years now.
It's the week after Labor Day,
and you have a rally throughout the rest of the year.
Yeah, I love that.
You're absolutely right, Wabi.
I love that we de-risked in the winter and here in the early spring
because it sets us up for a summer rally.
Yes, we didn't have a Santa Claus rally.
Oh, hell no.
It was coal and everyone's stocking.
Yeah, if you weren't in the chip stocks, the beta chip stocks that we were discussing here on the show,
if you weren't in AMD, not not amd excuse me excuse me sandisk sandisk was was the
one sandisk um i mean there was a little rally in amd but that happened in like october november and
they didn't really go up much but still i mean if you weren't in stocks like that you didn't really
do much intel was another one that we yapped about here on the show November
going into the start of the year that was a nice trade also so if you weren't
in those names you didn't really was very stupid much with size it was very
specific names you're right it was very it was not and it wasn't even all it
wasn't all memory it was like sandisk and it wasn't all memory. It was like SanDisk.
And it wasn't all chip makers.
It was AMD.
If you look at NVIDIA, NVIDIA today closed at the same damn price it was on July 31st, 2025.
If you bought NVIDIA on July 31st, 2025, you were literally, you've literally gone nowhere.
You've gone up a little, you've gone down a little, you're at the exact same price over almost a year later.
So like we've, you know, if, if you think about it, like everything's been either cut in half, taken a beating or been consolidating.
uh cut in half uh taken a beating or been consolidating so i mean unless someone knows
something i don't that we're we're falling into a u.s recession here like we have put in a massive
base for the next move higher yeah i i i also speaking about bearishness and stuff, I don't know why anyone would think that, like,
Apple would be cut in half or anything like that.
The mama, whatever it's called.
Oh, jeez.
Yeah, yeah.
Just because there's an acronym doesn't make it smart, you know?
Yeah, yeah.
Just generally saying for no no good you know no reason at all
yeah like i i you know i've been in markets not that long just eight years but um i have never
ever ever seen the indices rather i don't think over the last like 15 years we've seen the indices
just crab around for this long you're talking five months of crab like we've seen the indices just crab around for this long.
You're talking five months of crab.
Like, we've never seen that post-GFC.
And look, man, I really think just doing market analysis pre-GFC
is like the biggest disservice that we can do to ourselves.
Because before, what was the moat? Oh, just have a ton
of layoffs and the market will heal itself. And now the moat is, oh man, the S&P is elevated.
All right, let's gap it down by a quick 5% to 15% and we'll turbo reverse it within six months.
and will turbo reverse it within six months.
That's the mo.
There is no 70% decline for high caps anymore in the stock market.
It's just not going to happen.
That's such a good point.
They actually have to post bad news like missed earnings or canceling deals. They actually have to have a catalyst for a 70% fall off a cliff.
You know, a 50% retracement, sure, if their PE got super extended, you know,
there was a lot of triple-digit PEs.
But, like, as we speak right now, NVIDIA is trading at a 22 forward PE.
23 if you want to round up.
23, that is not expensive.
Two and three years ago, NVIDIA was trading that 50, 70, 100 plus.
Now it's all the way down.
NVIDIA has been consolidating again for so long and also crushing their earnings quarter after quarter that now their PE is all the way down to 23.
Like there is a lot of companies, blue chips that have been completely de-risked, consolidating, and I'm guessing are just waiting for the green light when big money says like, okay, flip the buy.
Data, what's going on, bro? It's been a minute. I'm glad I can have you here on the show, man.
How are you? How was your weekend, man?
Hey, what's going on, Wabi? Always good to see you, man. Always good to see everyone here.
I know Matt is a regular. Good to see you here as well. It's been going good. It's been going good. You know, the market has been very resilient,&P and, you know, crypto. Now, granted, the S&P had that bounce after oil dropped, after the announcement that the war may end.
But I think even before that, Bitcoin was kind of outperforming the S&P for the past few weeks.
And I think that maybe that could be, OK, we could see some relief rally.
But at the very least, I think it's, well, now we're starting to see maybe a different, you know,
mindset of how people approach crypto and, you know, versus the S&P.
And I know NVIDIA and a lot of other companies, extremely low P.E. compared to some of these companies that have two, three, four hundred.
And so I think that you're seeing now kind of people go towards, you know, those those good hedges, which now it seems to be like it's kind of Bitcoin's turn.
And just looking at these support and resistance levels, I mean, those things have been respected like crazy. If you just look at
across Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, I mean, Ethereum, you know, it's 1940 support level,
Solana 81 support Bitcoin, that 65.8K. I mean, all these levels have been holding despite
literally the world falling apart for the past few weeks.
And so I think that's a testament to, hey, we need to start paying attention.
Where is this, you know, value add that we can have and, you know, hedge our positions?
Because gold obviously now, even with everything going on, gold has still been hovering around 5,000 and 5,100, whereas you would expect gold to kind of take off.
But obviously oil had different things in mind for that.
But I still think that the performance
in crypto is definitely something interesting and something not to be ignored now of course
we're still in a bear market and we need to not get euphoric right i think that people tend to
get overly euphoric after a war ends because they think that oh that's the reason for the drop now
it's just up only where we're still in the bear market. Like historically, we'll bottom by October, maybe August. I've seen some talks about
the summer, but I think we still need to be realistic with, okay, you know, 55K would create
the bullish divergence we're looking for. And then we can go higher from there. That would
technically be okay. Or 40K to 30K. I mean, those are two realistic targets, just looking at the
2022 cycle. And so those are levels
I'm watching currently. And, you know, right now with around 68, 69k, depending what Trump says in
his speech. And if he's saying there's gonna be a ceasefire or hints at it, yeah, maybe make it a
little relief pump. But I think that currently with the way the market's been, you know, it is
good to see at least its resiliency. And I'll just continue playing it level by level and if we do end up getting lower let's say april and may then i'll gladly buy there but i think it's
important as well as to not let emotions get too involved when we're trading day to day and i think
realistically probably saying you know just looking at how how bitcoin's been i mean 30
fundamentals 70 technicals like just looking at the. And so that's where I'm focused on.
And I'll just keep playing it level to level until then.
And then, you know, if we go higher, awesome.
If not, I'll be ready with lower orders because historically, I mean, that's what's worked in the past.
And that's what I'll keep doing.
Yeah, I did see that statement from Trump saying how he thinks like the war is very complete pretty much.
And then, dude, the reversal that oil had to the downside.
Unreal, dude.
Oh, I think I see what caused the oil sell-off.
It looks like Trump called in to CBS News.
It looks like Trump called in to CBS and said U.S. Navy is moving ships into the strait to guarantee security. So basically the U.S. is going to take over the Strait of Hormuz.
open and they're offering insurance in case uh shipper shipping insurance um are skittish like
yeah uh oil should correct and it did immediately you know that that was gnarly silver and gold also had such volatility very very very similar man um to the last year plus for commodities have been
have been so unreal man so unreal um now it's just like is this it for oil I would put those chances at like probably 70 30 70 yes 30 mil and
that is just because over the weekend a lot of crypto people kind of reacted the
same way towards oil like when the you remember when the cost was going up like crazy
matt that's the uh korean the korean spx and once people caught notice it corrected like
30 or something like that it went down from just below 64 all the way down to 5 000 or just below 5100 that's a
pretty aggressive correction after like two trading sessions that's like as if the s p
that's like if the s p has um two back-to-back gap-down days of like 5%, which I think at that point they used the circuit breakers, right?
At that point, I think it's over 5% or 6%
where they just shut everything off,
which is something that hasn't happened since COVID, basically.
I think they were close to doing it last year, though.
If you remember, Matt, we had back-to-back days
where SPX and NQ were down over 4%.
There were days that we got that.
Yep.
And the statements that were made by people where this deflationary narrative would take the S&P down to $3,800, which I don't see any possibility that we ever go to deflation.
to deflation. We are never getting cheaper food prices or rent. No, all this is going to be
straight up and to the right. Elevation is going to be elevated. We all know CPI is a lie.
They cook up the numbers and everything is just up and to the right and for the common person if they don't
find a way to trade or accumulate hard assets they're just they're screwed man they're they're
screwed i want to share i want to share a stuff that i'm watching especially now with high oil prices.
I mean, maybe some money could rotate
for nuclear reactor.
There's a play called SMR.
This has already gone down like 78%.
And I actually posted that on the comments.
If we go down like 16% more,
there's like strong chart demand and there's like three trend lines adding more confluence.
So if we get down like 50% more to that key level that I'm watching, I mean, that could be like an amazing swing trade opportunity for a high percentage bounce.
So it's called SMR in case you guys are on the charts.
Thanks, man.
Thanks, man.
Norton, do you play equities?
Do you play stocks or are you just sticking to crypto right now?
Sticking to crypto.
I'm not really an equity player player i just use it as an indicator
yeah i got something else to talk about man is um this correction on dubai real estate
that is something that was that was honestly insane i think it experienced like a correction of over 20%. Wild how like that was the generational top.
It was crypto bros putting in the top of Dubai,
which quite frankly,
I don't know why because Dubai as pretty as it is,
it's extremely humid.
It's more humid than Miami.
The sun feels fake over there and it's all man-made.
And whenever it rains, every car just gets flooded. Yeah. It just gets taken out to the
woodshed. Um, it is a fake city, man built around the bubble and other stuff. yeah it's uh it's topped out man it's like ed hardy in 2008
2009 it's abercrombie and fitch in 2006 2007 um it's lincoln Park in 2003
It's a top man
Yeah, I can pray catch and strange
Lincoln Park peaked
with numb and in the end And then they had a complacency, but then they had a massive double top. I think their peak was a
Transformers bro yeah yeah that was
their double top man that was there that was there 69 K you know yeah that was
there 69 thousand now that was their 126k which technically it kind of was a little double top because
um we hit 124 in july and then 120 it was that was the david bailey false breakout
the naka oh let me smash by yeah let me spend let me buy let me blow a billion on bitcoin all in one click just for the bragging rights and
yeah destroy the company's equity to be honest i'm kind of happy actually that people are getting
bearish on dubai because i just think overall these past years we've seen way too many crypto bros, including myself, you know, but like crypto bros just going to Dubai and just the place doesn't even look Middle Eastern anymore.
You know, it's because you only see like Russians and UK people and everything.
And it's just like, I hope people get scared right now and will try to look for their next haven haven uh safe haven to to buy something at because um
i missed the dubai from like 2015 and uh i don't know it just it was way better less tourists
cheaper apartments um so i'm kind of enjoying this and and personally also i'm just looking at the
And personally, also, I'm just looking at the effects on the markets right now.
And yeah, I've seen it as well.
Like 20% discounts.
And I don't think that's going to stop anytime soon.
So personally, I'm looking at it as an opportunity to buy some more real estate here.
And yeah.
Yeah, I understand you on the crypto bro part a lot of them are are primitive they don't know
how to conduct themselves they don't know how to speak um and when you give someone that's very
neurotic an opportunity where they can turn three to five thousand into three hundred or five hundred thousand um they don't
really know how to act right like i i really don't think that the average person can understand the
dopamine rush of what it is to have one of those trades in crypto um and they happen every year they happen every year um people can make 300 bands off of a coin that tops
out at 400 no no they can make like 300 bands off of something that peaks at 30 to 50 mil um but you
only have a few people that can capitalize with that amount because the liquidity is shit and
when you have certain people a certain demographic of people that
behave a certain way that they can, they can capitalize on these moves. They don't know how
to act because money is just an amplifier of who you are. And crypto right now just attracts that
class of person that is very neurotic. And when they get these dopamine rushes, it's like giving an addict drugs.
After a huge withdrawal, they just spaz out and they don't really know how to act.
So, yeah, I totally get you on that Norton
Matt you were speaking bro
no I think I was just agreeing
yeah
one thing I wanted to mention though
someone mentioned
200 week
and some things for Bitcoin
I think that you know we're always fighting the last
battle. We always are thinking we're giving too much credit to the last bear market we just came
out of. But if we zoom out, and this is what I tried to show and share up in the nest. I think
it's really fair to say with hindsight that maybe 2022 was the abnormal, worse than usual bear market.
Whether you were in bonds, whether you were in blue chips, whether you were in the Max 7, whether you were in energy stocks or even the new fledgling AI companies, nothing was safe in 2022.
Everything got shellacked.
And certainly Bitcoin and crypto too.
It was just a nasty bear market for everything.
But if this is a, I'll say more normal bear market,
I would not be surprised if the 200 week holds this time,
just like it did in 2014, 2015, just like it did in 2018, just like it did
with the 2020 COVID crash. What if 2022 was the abnormal worse than usual once every decade or
once every 15 years and 2026 is more normal. So yeah, just another food for thought.
You know, for every time, it feels like all the, it feels like the perma bears and the
doomers are getting all the attention right now.
Just like in 2025, all the perma bulls and the up only bros were getting all the airspace.
But every time you hear someone pound the table where Bitcoin just has to go to 40k, 30k or sub 20k, I don't know.
I ask why.
Give me that economic data point or two. Give me the geopolitical thesis or give me the terrible earnings deteriorating economic data. You got to give me something other than, well, that's just what it did in 2022.
That's just what it did in 2022.
Sailor also bought a billion worth of BTC, and that was an average price of $71,000.
He owns over 3% of the supply.
That is unsettling. That's's impressive to say the least but dude what's this strc thing
man that has to do with sailor right yeah that's their honestly this is where he's brilliant so
he's selling uh it's basically debt he you know you can call it preferred shares with an interest rate or a dividend,
but it's essentially he's selling debt and you get a guaranteed interest rate. And with the money
that he earns from selling that debt, he's buying Bitcoin.
Now, if an asteroid hits the earth and everything falls into a depression and MicroStrategy actually does have to sell assets to meet their obligations,
the preferred shareholders and the debt holders, they get paid out first.
So when everyone comes with their handout, the MSTR equity holders, they're last in line,
just like any other stock. Debt holders get paid, then preferred shareholders get paid,
and then the common stock holders get paid last but sailors making the
calculated bet and i think this is where he's smart that he's just going to keep selling
debt over time and buy bitcoin with the proceeds with the under you know with the thesis that even if Bitcoin's in a bear market, it never lasts more than
six to 12 months. And he will easily be able to meet those future obligations
with the steady rise in Bitcoin price over time. The interest rate that he has to meet
on those preferred shares and those debt obligations, it's super dirt cheap.
It's super low.
So yeah, okay, you've got some preferred shares.
You've got some debt that comes due in 2028 or 2030 or 2032.
Honestly, there's no reason he shouldn't be able to do this in perpetuity.
People, you know, for various reasons, some entities have to own bonds or only are interested in preferred shares.
And so there's a demand for his debt in his preferred shares.
Some people just love to earn a dividend.
It's not for me.
It doesn't interest me.
It doesn't interest you, Wabi.
But there's a lot of entities that do like that stuff.
So he can keep selling to them and then buys Bitcoin with the proceeds.
It's just, you know, it's really smart.
You know, it's really smart because one thing that we were talking about all 2025, when every Joe Schmo was trying to start a Bitcoin treasury company or an ETH treasury company, the one thing we kept asking was like, okay, well, this makes sense in a bull market when you're just selling shares to buy more Bitcoin or buy more ETH.
But what about in a bear market when all of a sudden
no one's buying your shares like they used to in volume?
Do you have a business model that works in the bear market?
And so far, right now, as we speak, it's only Saylor.
Only Saylor seems to have a business model that works in a bear market. I don't see, you know, ASST and NACA and BMNR and 21 Capital. I don't see any of the other Joe Schmo Bitcoin treasury companies doing jack. I don't see him doing anything. it's only sailor so he's you know it's working
hey man i get a lot of that but to be honest like i'm getting a lot of confluence in different charts
as to why maybe this is not the low i mean like you okay it could be up yeah i mean like
just to give some context now so we So we have had like a 50%
Bitcoin drop. But the thing that I'm seeing is like back in 2024, like around March to September
or something like that, like around 200 days, like we range for a long time, right? So in this recent drop,
basically prices like testing that range.
So after a big move down,
I mean, we're not going to slice through that range
like in the first try.
And right now also like I'm seeing like the stablecoin charts,
like I'm using two different variations of the stablecoin charts as a macro guide on this cycle.
And for me, it has really like worked really well.
If you guys take a look at the USDT dominance, I mean, that chart alone was already tested 2022's all-time highs.
And we're creating a bull flag, a potential bull flag on that chart,
potentially meaning more upside, so downside for Bitcoin. And on the other variation I have,
which is the USDT plus the USDC, on that chart, we still haven't tested 2022's all-time highs.
And in addition to that, like in the past, 2017 or 2022 bear markets, we went below
some SMAs. That's another factor I'm seeing. So I don't know, man, like if we get to the top on
the stablecoin chart, for me, that will be an amazing accumulation zone on Bitcoin. And right now, I mean, from what I'm seeing, we're potentially
like creating another like bear flag channel on a high time frame. And from a trade perspective,
let me share with you guys what I posted yesterday and was talking about in different spaces like this was
really spot on at least from a from a short-term perspective of why I'm leaning short-term bullish
on Bitcoin because there's a lot of conflict like I said like it's a really good guide right and
and also we have never had like two back to back like red yearly candles on Bitcoin.
So I mean, there's a lot of factors, man.
Like I just don't see good risk to reward.
Like I'm long right now on a shorter term basis, but like price would need to reach
some invalidation levels to tell you, hey, you know what, man?
Okay, I'm wrong and I'm gonna flip bullish but i'm just
not seeing that right now to be honest yeah this is this is kind of related to uh was that last
week spaces where so i i think i think we were talking about I forget the on-chain data, maybe Wabi, you remember.
But I think on-chain data and the stablecoin dominance to Bitcoin, I think a lot of that is getting noisier and noisier cycle after cycle.
introducing new, there's just new participants, new entities, new, you know, additional ways to
have exposure to Bitcoin, especially. And for example, the, oh gosh, was it the,
it was, it was some ratio. I think it was a, I think it was the on-chain of trading volume for Bitcoin now takes lowest total percent in Bitcoin's history.
Because as this asset expands and expands into different markets and different sectors,
you don't have to go, quote-unquote, on-chain to every single time you want to settle up and trade and accumulate or sell.
You know, there's so many exchanges in every different continent,
in so many different countries that you can just do it on that exchange.
And then now...
So are you saying all of the data is not 100% reflected there?
Yeah, I'm saying it's getting noisier and noisier.
Yeah, I'm saying it's getting noisier and noisier.
And so I'm worried about – that's why I've been using Aura.
Excuse me.
I got a frog in my throat.
It's all good, man.
Drink some water.
Yeah.
In other news, man, Hyperliquid's up 35% over the last 14 days.
It feels like Hype's the only thing...
The only thing that's investable in this whole fucking market.
Well, it feels like it's the only thing that's actually doing anything.
Am I wrong?
Yeah.
I would really like someone to give me a better growth name than Hyperliquid.
I have not heard anyone give such a broad thesis like I have outside of Tommy.
People just think it's a perps platform when it's going to be more than that.
Yeah, but that's good
enough honestly yeah i i ultimately think at some point hyper liquid is going to be given off to
tradfly um i mean look at uniswap uniswap isn't the same entity that it was a couple of years ago um i think this is like solana at 20 bucks 25 dollars um it's the only
thing that's investable long term in this in this entire market um eth is not investable
so i'm not investable yeah aave is not investable link isn't invest. Link isn't investable. ADA isn't investable.
There is no thesis for any of those coins, especially when you take into account token supply.
And also, unfortunately, this market has priced out anything that's over five years old.
You don't have that same pool of
investors because they moved over to trad fi a lot of individuals that were
sole bulls moved over to equities and they bought things like hood same thing
with the theory I'm like did you just did you see what Vitalik put out over
the weekend dude he's like something yeah go ahead go ahead it's like if you eat a lot
and you get full but you continue to force feed your mouth is basically a garbage can
what the fuck are you talking about dude like what is what is like and he's 31 he's such a but he's such a he's such a he's such a tech bro that
just fell into crypto instead you know like they don't they don't make they they never make that
much sense you know what i mean like did you i chalk that up to did you see what sam altman
was talking about you know open ai ceo was talking about over the
weekend last week it was similar cringy shit talking about how like um oh i don't know i'm
not i'm not gonna bother repeating it if you're interested you can look it up but like these these
these these guys to your point wabi to your earlier point like they have no social they have no social awareness honestly
and it's a miracle like you know they they hit it big with their one trick with their one thing
but like yeah you you tell me wabi vitalik doesn't have some ace up his sleeve to pull off some ETH turnaround.
This thing was done last bear market.
Now it's really done.
Like, come on.
Yeah, I mean, I'd be bullish ETH if it goes below 900.
And even if it goes to 10,000, where does that take Hyperliquid?
That's what I said about Sol against ETH.
And me and Max made that video in September of 2023 when it was trading at $12, $13.
And I feel the same way with Hyperliquid right now against Solana.
I think there's going to be coins on Hyperliquid that go to billions.
We did see some coins on Hyperliquid go to almost 200 million.
We had a handful of them.
And that was when the market had mostly peaked with retail flows in late 2024.
That was the peak of retail flows.
And that usually takes a few years to come back because
you need stocks to go up now matt like we need hood to go to like 200 a share to even start
entertaining that new money from retail is going to pour out into the market but it's gonna go the but it'll go the other way it'll it'll um hood won't move
until crypto bottoms out and starts moving you know bitcoin bottoms out and starts moving
and software companies bottom out start moving because remember remember what hood is basically
hood is basically iw it was basically iwM plus crypto, you know, so and yeah
And long term like what what what?
What's the thesis behind MSTR over Robin Hood? There isn't
MSTR has a ceiling
It does not I mean I understand different they're different animals
Yeah, I would rather buy I am a hood maxi Emma hood and I love hood hood does not i mean i understand they're different they're different animals yeah i
would rather buy i am a hood maxi i'm a hood and i love hood yeah don't get me wrong i love hood
it's it's h and h man you know it's an h i call it the h and h portfolio higher highs
higher highs hood and hyperliquid higher highs dude um i think i think a better comparison
what is the thesis to buy coinbase over hood that to me that's what that makes no sense like give
me hood twice on sundays over coinbase yeah um there's too many buttons on coinbase now man a lot of useless buttons it was always
convoluted looking you know yeah remember base how dead is base remember when that was going to
be a thing did base die without a trace it it was the thing man um it was the thing, man. Um, it was a thing in 2024.
Uh, hopefully it doesn't escape because I really don't like Solana.
I think Solana has like probably another six months to correct.
as far as like on chain activity and the way the flows work there I think you're gonna need Bitcoin
to have multiple weekly closes above 95,000 for people to actually stay within stay within
a ticker on soul for more than just for more than just a few days um again you take a look at penguin
you take a look at punch you take a look at white whale uh white whale is a different anomaly but
you take a look at penguin and punch like those that price action same thing with ralph wiggum
and and gastown like those charts only moved for a few days where there is
before you were allowed to go into the chart you had dips to buy um and that that environment
requires btc to be above a certain level and i would say that first level would be the yearly open for btc but for now like my my
thing is just all right if you make if you make some money on calls whether um you make a trade
on chain and you make a couple of grand or whatever or you go on perps on crypto you use that to buy
your favorite assets over the long term and joe says it all
the time right you buy into quality assets that you believe are gonna be here over the long term
and for me i think that's robin hood and and hyper liquid um if both of those companies fail
then markets are cooked that's it's all or nothing for me when it comes to that as far as growth beta, right?
Because if growth isn't going to do anything, then I guess we're all screwed.
Growth's always – I don't know.
I mean, we're – yeah.
I'm not worried about growth.
Now, can we overinvest in AI?
Sure, there's going to be winners and losers.
It looks like Anthropics Claude is going to overtake open ai's chat gbt no one had that on their bingo card in 2023
or 2024 or even in 2025 no one thought that would happen but like you know there's gonna be
there'll be different winners and losers over the over the rest of this decade before we get to 2030
but like the theme ai i mean you got to be bullish. You have to be.
Yeah.
At some point, I do think...
Tao, bro.
Tao.
This is why I'm buying Tao.
Man.
Remember?
Oh, oh.
What was that stupid coin, Wabi?
It was the AI coin back in 2022, 2023 was gonna uh it was fat it was fat and
agix man where are you yeah and there was one other you were gonna like rent this was how you
were gonna rent other people's gpus by paying for this coin what was that i think that was render man render yes it was right yeah but i mean like but that's the
point like okay the idea was probably is as dumb as bricks uh from the get-go but ai the theme the
genre is very real it's still very real it's like it's like ai16z like they were the number
one github repository for like a day and that was the top uh but it traded at a nice valuation you
know it traded at a at a near four billion dollar valuation but if you really think about it the peak of on-chain this cycle was was with with hit five bill in March of 2024
and almost everything that came after that that came out into the market was a lower ceiling it
was a lower ceiling I mean even virtuals virtuals peaked out at like four bill and change so whiff was the on-chain top i mean you had
multiple billion dollar runners but as far as ceilings for coins that came out in 2024
whiff set that top and then it was just uh a downward spiral um and you only had Pepe reach the organic top of over 10 bill.
But there was a lot of VC money that went into Pepe.
That's the thing.
A ton of liquid funds bought into Pepe.
And that's what I have to say about that.
I'm sure we're going to get that next year or first half of 2028.
I think second half of 2028 is going to be abysmal.
But I think the run that we can have going into the 2028 halving, I think that's like, that's when you get the Bitcoin dominance at 40%, 38%, all that stuff.
That's where you get 10K ETH, $400 eth 400 500 soul and all that stuff i think going into the having
of 28 that's when you get everything that was promised to us you know that's the the post
having the the post having year that we were supposed to get in 2025 we're gonna get it in the halving year of 2028 um and that's when the
sbr narrative is going to happen i think the strategic bitcoin reserve q4 2027 that's when
that's when i think it starts man q4 of 2027 america starts buying a bunch of btc
btc tops out within like a week of that going live. And then Bitcoin dominance falls off a cliff.
Everyone gets rich.
And then, I don't know, we run back the playbook, I guess, right?
We buy oil, commodities, and just repeat it until it doesn't work anymore.
Yeah, it's my take.
Evan, what's going on, bro?
How are you? how was your weekend man
good man what's going on wabi how are you i just got back from the gym feeling a little
swole leo so you know how it is how it is i do i know exactly how it is man um did we actually
have one of our guys promet Prometheus. He's
going over to Thailand to get double jaw
surgery. Are you serious?
Yeah, dude. He's going to get double jaw surgery.
He's going to avenge Clav.
Wow. Yeah, there's going to be
conclusion to the Mog Wars.
So, he's going to get a
double jaw surgery
and it's going to be great man you have
to do what it takes to Mog right yeah it's just like kind of ironic because like you know he's
going to Thailand to have double jaw surgery like he's going somewhere where he doesn't need to have
double jaw surgery you know what I mean like it is you know if you're trying to get girls like
anyway let's get into bitcoin a little bit um yeah what are your thoughts on this close for
equities man within 10 minutes you saw that 80 point gap up on spx a thousand point gap up on
the nasdaq it's quite impressive man there's gonna. Yeah. I mean, I wouldn't get too
like overly excited about it, at least not yet. I do think for NASDAQ, if you, for triple Q,
if you can break above like 314, you know, three, or excuse me, 614, 616, that area,
that would kind of change the momentum a bit. But until then, it seems like just a bear market jump, in my view.
I don't know if it's got the legs to keep going.
I've been looking at, same with the SPY.
I mean, they don't look good.
I mean, there's going to be, people will buy up.
But bear markets get more complicated because they always find a way to kind of wreck both sides a bit,
where bull markets generally only wreck the bears.
Bear markets generally wreck both sides a bit, where bull markets generally only wreck the bears, bear markets generally wreck both sides.
But yeah, I mean, I think you got a few more months of downwardness potentially.
Bitcoin right now, I mean, if you're following that kind of pattern from, you know, May and
June of 2022, there's potential for a bit more of a jump, maybe even up to 74, 75K,
you know, some situation like that um i mean lower time
frames right now look kind of in between you're just still in that range that we've been in i
don't know i mean since like beginning of february so nothing really happening too much you know just
trying to like hunt trades here but there's not really too much at the moment i mean you could
try to short in some of the lower time frames but i do think that's a little bit risky um in addition you know when you look at some of the higher time frames here i mean your daily makes it look like
you may want to roll over two week you know three day or not the best situation either and then you
know your your kind of macro time frames like the two week you know your high ones still still would
be indicative of at least like long-term consolidation you know like jumping around
not like a v-shaped recovery there's not really any signs of a V-shaped recovery. So
you're still in this area. I mean, you do have some hope, like the 12-hour, that'd be potentially
jumping up back to the previous week's high, which is right at 74.3. You know, the year-to-day
anchored VWAP, that's a pretty big point. I mean, you could hit 75. That would be kind of my high
that you would hit. We're kind of above schedule for that normally like quarter forward quarter two excuse me would be the time
you may you know kind of retest that so definitely got to be real careful here i mean you do have an
hourly almost a bare div on the hourly yeah i don't know it's kind of a careful place but um
yeah kind of a careful place but i don't you, I know people always chirp me for seeing it as being indecisive.
But I mean, I still would say, you know, kind of range bound.
I wouldn't get overly excited about any jumps as of right now.
I mean, I know a lot of people hate this, but it's long consolidation.
You know, it's kind of boring DCA area for long term, like DCA Bitcoin.
Very smart idea.
Micro strategy, even very smart idea, in my opinion, unless that has a lower low against Bitcoin.
So that's what I would look at there. In terms of anything else, I mean, I know everybody, let me just like everybody wants to hear about, obviously, XLE or oil.
And I put a tweet out saying potentially, you know, by the FOMC meeting, we could see a high for oil.
I think that's at least like a local high. I mean, XLE is hitting a big place. But I do think like even if this is the top for XLE, I do think there's a
good shot it should continue to outperform the S&P 500. And I could potentially still see that
going up to $70 to $74, you know, within a few months or something by the summer. And this isn't
like a brand new prediction. I've been saying this like since January. So this has nothing to do with
Iran or anything like that. I mean, I bought XLE this like since January. So this has nothing to do with Iran or anything like that.
I mean, I bought XLE like mid 40s.
So this is just, you know, this is kind of just following what happened in 2022 to a certain extent.
So, yeah, I mean, that's pretty much all I got at the moment.
Dude, Grant, what's going on man you uh put out a post a few days ago saying that
trump was gonna say all right war's done and it's pretty much what happened today man how did
how did you do it yeah well i don't know that i was right i said it would be tuesday
i just think that i think that he's in a position at any time to say, hey, I'm done here. We were successful.
No one can scream louder than Trump.
And no one will repeat it louder as many times as Trump.
If he decides that he was successful there, he will convince the world of it and pull out.
And he'll be able to go back in anytime he wants he'll
probably even say that like like you know i got what i needed i'm cool and we're out
oil will fall to 60 bucks or lower and um he'll he'll he holds the trump card, if you will, to say, hey, I can go back in anytime I want,
and I will decimate you the next time, too. I hope he does that, too. I hope he just pulls out
claims success. And he's a marketing machine, dude. He's not a warmonger. This guy's never
been a warmonger. And I believe that, I believe he went in because there was something, you know,
I believe he loves America. And I think he wants the best thing for something. I believe he loves America.
I think he wants the best thing for him, his family, and America.
In that order, by the way.
Yeah, so this wasn't a taco.
He's a high ego.
Massive ego, dude.
The guy wants to be known as successful, number one.
I thought about the ice rink in New York.
Everybody knows the story about him going in and doing what they'd been trying to fix this ice rink for like three or four years. He did in 10 weeks, said he could, did it under budget, did it for a fraction of the cost.
He wants to make a big claim. Now,
I don't know if I'm right or wrong. It's just my opinion. I have no inside information, but
he knows he cannot be successful if he's there for an extended period of time,
because it won't be viewed as success no matter what the result is if he's there too long.
Well, it looks like the market also liked that.
He said U.S. Navy is moving ships into the strait and it's going to basically guarantee security.
That's what oil, I think that's what caused oil to fall off a cliff in terms of price. Like,
oh, okay. So the U.S. is going to,'re going to reopen the strait and and hold it on their own. and cargo containers like okay fine lloyd's of london in england doesn't doesn't want to ensure
the ships right now and are putting a pause on it with us us government's good for the bill and we
are ready to step up to i think they announced on cnbc like over 20 billion in in preliminary
insurance funds so like okay they're going to guarantee security and they're going to backstop you monetarily. Like, yeah. Uh, not surprised oil fell off a cliff by negative 30%.
Hey, Grant, uh, Norton here, big fan of your work, man. Just want to say nice to meet you.
Um, do you not think that iran or like trump is already too
deep in because i mean the new guy that they've made a leader over there i believe uh they killed
his dad and his mom and things like that like and i heard he's he's worse than the old leader so
what do you think?
Do you think he can still reverse this?
I don't think Trump is ever too deep in.
So the guy's a magician, man.
He is a marketing machine, has been his entire life.
There's a story.
I asked someone years ago why he kept his plane outside of LaGuardia.
I actually asked him, I'm like, you know, I never understood why you left your plane outside the hangar in LaGuardia.
And he's like, well, you know, it's a bigger plane than yours.
I said, yeah, but there's still hangers big enough to manage it. And he's like, well, that's a good question.
But you know, you know how many planes fly into LaGuardia every day, Grant?
I said, no, he's like a lot.
It's a huge number.
And I said, yes, sir.
And he says, if it was in the hangar, nobody would see it.
It's a marketing machine.
Yeah. See you. It's a marketing machine. I mean, if he followed your sales videos, Grant, because I will just tell you something personal.
Like, I used to own a marketing agency back in the day and uh i would like
religiously follow your videos so when i'm saying i'm a big fan i really am a big fan man because i
think you're one of the greatest salesmen um we have here uh to folks, folks. And man, if he can talk game like you are,
and Trump can talk a good game,
I think there's still time to reverse probably.
Yeah, thank you for the compliment.
I just, you know, just from a negotiate,
just from somebody that studied negotiating
and, you know, marketing for most of my life,
you know, Trump is a master
negotiator, whether you like him or don't like him. There's things he does that are so, for anybody
that understands negotiating, that are so like 3D chess-like. I mean, he does stacking better than
anyone. You know, he never asks for one thing. He'll shock you with one thing he wants.
And then before you can go into full shock, hit you with a second one, a third one, a fourth one, and a fifth one.
And then, you know, somehow claim victory if you only do one or two of them.
So I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't decide to go to Cuba and take everybody's attention off Iran.
Like, the guy can play some game
and he doesn't mind taking the heat that comes with it.
He does his own marketing
and his own negotiating,
and he defends himself most of the time.
We haven't had a president like this guy ever in my lifetime.
And again, whether you like him or not, we still haven't had a guy like him.
Hey, Grant, would you ever run for president?
Yeah, I don't think that'll happen.
Yeah, I don't think that's.
Shit, I got scared.
I was thinking about running for governor of California.
I got scared of doing that.
My brother taught me down from that.
Gary, what about yourself, man?
Would you ever run for president?
Negator.
Not a chance, my man.
I'd love to be an ambassador somewhere.
Friend of mine's ambassador of Malaysia.
He told me to come over.
He would most certainly give me the red carpet.
Who is that, Gary?
Adam.
Yeah, we were in Malaysia years ago.
Yeah.
It's a rough place.
yeah but so what he he got to basically sell all his assets or move all his assets into a trust
Yeah.
avoid any kind of income tax and then when he goes back from being ambassador back into the public
uh he he gets to claim all those at a at a higher cost basis with no tax event, right?
I think that's the play there.
And that's why those guys do that.
Gotta give them some incentive not to just trade while they're...
Yeah, exactly.
I was at Mar-a-Lago the night trump got elected and uh there was an ambassador i'm not going to tell you guys what what country just because you
know who it is and he's like grant you should go get something i said what what do you mean he's
like well i just got awarded the ambassadorship i said well how do you get that he's like well
you got to go to donald and ask and he's like's like, you don't get it without asking, dude. He likes you to ask.
You got to sell it to him.
You got to tell him why you'd be the best.
You know, so I said, yeah, I don't think I could do that, dude.
But it does sound like a good gig.
Can you imagine being an ambassador to like Italy?
Oh, yeah, you might have a fight a half dozen for that one
have free spaghetti for life free or france gary where would you want to be ambassador
thailand where you get daily massages gotta have a beach you get daily massages? You just got to have a beach.
Three massages?
Six hands at one time?
Guys, what happens to Bitcoin from here?
Tell me when it goes to 100.
When's it going to go back to 100?
I just brought Gary back up.
January 2027, I'll say.
I bet it will be in six digits.
You don't think it hits six digits this year?
Oh, I was giving you a minimum.
I don't know. I don't know.
Earliest? I was saying latest.
Latest date. I don't know about earliest date. Good point. What do you think? should feel like hyperliquid is is like that second asset just how ethan soul was back then
um i mean what happened to oil last week when it's over and gold early year this year and late
last year that was all because of uh the usage on hyperliquid um and i think that's something that a lot of people around
at some point in the future um i know you've heard me talk about it a lot grant um but yeah
gary what about yourself man i remember pulling you on solana like three years ago brother well
always shocked when you start talking about other products and your name is because bitcoin it's
always amazing yeah i uh like did i have enough juice in my life i don't need to do hyper liquid
and these other things like i don't know how many times i gotta learn a lesson what what was it that
that made you buy a solana i i think it was when you first came on here.
I think it was like right when Silicon Valley Bank went under,
right around three years ago.
And we were talking about Solana.
And you asked me, like, why should I buy Solana?
And then later on that year in the summer,
I think you had said that you bought some soul the summer of 23.
And I think there's a trade to be done here.
And I talk about these like trades for the most part.
That's what they are.
Oh, this is just one big trade.
But what was it about?
How did it work out, Gary?
How did the trade work out?
Yeah, pretty damn good, I would assume.
Gary, if you're speaking right now, we're not able to hear you.
Does anyone else hear him?
I can't.
I can't hear him if he's talking.
There's a chance he's not talking, though.
Hey, Grant, you said this last week.
We're here to make money, right?
And you said this on OneSpace where you don't go into any space unless people are talking about making money.
And that's why I discussed some of these products. That's why I talked about Sandisk last year and earlier this year that's why i
talked about oil last week um it's an opportunity to make money but i'm assuming gary got a call
or something that's why like it's kicking him off but evan i saw you throwing laughing emojis bro
i saw that man but uh i for those that have tuned into these
shows over the last few years like people will know like i was talking about solana
pretty much every single show in 2023 discussing how the soul foundation was basically putting
crypto in the pockets of people through their phone. And I understand that at the time it's laughable,
but look at what they did, man.
They addressed an entire market that this industry has failed to do for 10 years.
You don't see an Ethereum phone.
I think they tried doing that many, many years ago.
That didn't work out.
So now you're putting commodities into the hands of crypto people
and if you have a crypto bro that's had ethereum since twenty dollars thirty dollars where's he
gonna where's he gonna park his money as eth stalls out probably in some other assets probably in other markets um so that's why hyper liquid is is uh something that has the
potential to be an asset that could run like solana did um a few years ago same with east
when we had kiwi and zurp people wanted defy they wanted to centralize
finance and get into all these products that offered insane yield um and east went to 4 000
and change cycle after that you had solana um tokenized the tension via meme coins and some other products like these AI shitters.
And now you have something that's real and tangible and isn't dependent on bull and bear markets.
It's dependent on volume. And if people are coming to the understanding that you need to own
assets and at least speculate in markets against the basement they want products that have
everything all in one and if you want to talk about decentralization and all that stuff
hyperliquid is is a trade to be done um and then of course through hyperliquid you buy
longer term assets of higher cap value that you think are going to be around for 20-30 years
whether it's bitcoin whether it's nvidia apple it's all one trade man um
evan do you want to say something man oh we have someone brandon what's up bro
how are you hey guys nice to be here nice to be in the space. Great topics, great questions.
Somebody asked when we're going to get back to 100k in Bitcoin. Just looking for things to shake
out, looking for that structural bid. There's just not like a real directional structural bid
right now, but I think we have been looking for a bottom here for a while. Have we already touched on it? I don't know.
Are we going to break the 200 weekly?
I don't know.
I mean, I almost kind of half wish we would on a technical level just because that would flesh out the last big boogeyman.
We did that the last cycle, you know, but I don't know.
I mean, who knows?
We've got all these macro events happening, all these things, this Iran thing.
I mean, are we going to do mission accomplished pretty soon?
Are they going to divide it up, keep part of it?
I don't know.
Is that, that's, it's hard to say, but eventually here we'll get,
we'll get it all worked out.
We'll hit all the technical levels and we'll have a structural bid back in.
I think there is dry powder waiting to get in.
And I don't know where we're at with the cycle,
but it's like all the rotation kind of already happened
from risk on to risk off and then oil popped.
And now that's probably going to come back down here at some point.
And we'll see what happens.
I mean, I want to add some thoughts on that.
I mean, we never truly know,
but what we can do is put our probabilities on our side, you know?
And right now, like, I'm not seeing, like, many charts are signaling that this is not that low, in my opinion.
You know, especially the stablecoin chart.
Yeah, exactly.
Ghosty, do you think the hyperliquid bottom is in, bro?
Do you think hype is bottomed
i mean right now i'm not touching all so i mean i i said last thing last phase that yeah maybe you
could you could do like short term trades but for long-term accumulation i mean this is just
personal like me i'm not i'm not touching anything on that.
I actually, like many weeks ago, I was talking that I was in a water utility company.
It's called AWK, that's a stock.
I mean, for me, it has been performing well.
Also, I bought some XLV.
I'm looking to short XLK, the technology sector, I mean, from a long-term position
standpoint.
And I'm just waiting, man, selectively.
I mean, I also talked today about SMR, it's a nuclear play.
I'm waiting for us to get like a 15% drop on a key key level, and that would like present
a really good swing trading opportunity and
that's it to be honest i have a question you know for you guys um what what are you guys
thoughts on probabilities or you know of clarity getting done in 2026 mid Midterms, maybe, man.
If they want to win midterms, it's going to get passed before then.
If it doesn't, then Democrats take state, take the seed,
wherever it's called, and then we have probably another stab
at the lows right after that, and that creates the bottom.
So that's what I would say.
They're probably going to drag it out to last minute.
And I guess we just move on from that.
But those are my thoughts on clarity.
Polymarket has it at basically a 75% chance,
a three out of four chance that it gets signed into law in 2026.
So I don't have any insight myself, but the prediction markets seem to think it's really good.
Yeah, it tracks it.
Whoever just spoke before, it kind of tracks with what I'm thinking too.
Like if we don't get it done by
the midterm then it's probably dead um as far as this this iteration or this tribe with it but
and if we if they can get it done and we can work out the yield issue and it's favorable for us
that would be i feel like that would be a floor for a structural bid for a lot of institutional
stuff to start rolling back in but if not then, yeah, I think we might set a new low.
You know, I don't know.
See, Calci says 66% chance.
So there you go.
Between Polymarket and Calci, 75% chance, 66% chance.
That's a lot of money betting on a yes.
Uncle Mike, what's up, man? How was your weekend?
It was good. It was good.
And I thought today was very, very similar structurally
to April 6th, April 7th of last year.
If you remember, it was a Sunday night.
Futures opened. Super super red everybody was very
negative it was the end of the world and then we bounced and and started to recover on that monday
and we did the same exact thing last night till today it was a pretty pretty wild turnabout i
actually almost put on a pretty large short on the USO oil ETF this
morning. But I said, you know, why even mess with it? Just leave it alone. The VIX is going to come
down. Oil is going to come down. There's way too much hysteria in the market. And we got that
turnaround day. There's no guarantees that that's it. and there isn't more. But I would say so many readings
are saying that the fear and the doubt has just gone overboard without necessarily any deeper
fundamental underpinning to it. So I feel pretty good about this setup. I mean, I'm a high volatility
investor, right? So I lean really heavy into volatility. I like big concentrated positions. I don't really care about charts. I don't care about
short-term moves really much at all. But when you see what just happened over the last couple
months and you realize that a lot of us are still flat for the year after all that, I would have
expected, I had this conversation with another investor last week like given the news flow given the amount of volatility
given the fear the vix the oil prices the the geopolitics etc you would have expected
if you were leaning heavy into volatility and you were leaning heavy with conviction into your long
positions here that you should be down 20 30 40 sort of like you were multiple times over the last two or three years if you were
heavy into small cap equities, for example, into any of these things like March, April of last year.
So look, I think a lot of people have convinced themselves that we're headed into some sort of
major recession or depression. And I am seeing signs of a slowdown in various areas of the economy.
I am seeing signs of pressure on the employment situation.
But I'm also seeing a lot of bullets left in the gun
and a lot of opportunities to increase liquidity in the next couple quarters.
And it just feels to me, again, high level,
we have not seen an OpenAI or an Anthropic
or a SpaceX IPO yet.
And it's just really, it's going to be really hard
to get a big long-term top in risk assets
when you have some of the fastest growing assets
and highest value assets in human history
that have failed so far to achieve full liquidity,
which I think is coming in the next couple of quarters.
You've had highly restrictive monetary policy, in my opinion, for several years.
You've had a highly political Fed that refuses to pay attention to what's actually happening
and continues to parrot the same talking points, even in the presence of evidence that they're behind the curve
and they've been wrong.
So I like the odds of another 23, 24, 25 type of setup
where in spring of 23, same thing,
you had Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate, et cetera,
Signature, you had everybody screaming bloody murder.
All the way into October, you had all the chart squigglers, all the same people, by the way, who are bearish on Bitcoin right now, were saying that Bitcoin could not go up from 25K in October of 2023 because of liquidity.
And that was just completely dumb in retrospect.
And we're back there again now.
and we're back there again now, it's the same group of people who told you to be bearish at 25K
are saying to be bearish on Bitcoin after a 50% decline, which if you have a time horizon longer
than a gnat and the attention span longer than a three-year-old, then that's always a buying
opportunity, right? If you have a two to three-year timeframe, which is what your minimum
timeframe should be on any risk asset, this is going to, we're going to look back at
this chart three or four years from now and we're going to say, God, what could have possibly
happened in the spring of 2026 to scare the kids so badly that they sold all of their shit
right at the bottom before the next major multi-year move, right? And look, even if you're
wrong about that, you're still getting enough protection from
the fact that the prices have come down so far particularly for crypto which i think is finally
finishing a four to five year bear market now which again a lot of people are confused by that
because they used sort of textbook style definitions of what a bear market is without actually understanding
what a real bull market actually looks and feels like.
You're not going to have a bull market environment of restrained liquidity.
You're not going to have a bull market environment where the manufacturing index is below 50
for four years.
And just because some assets idiosyncratically go up does not mean we're in a bull market.
And if your index constitution has five or six companies driving it and they're all related
to the same megatrend, then that S-curve can outrun a short-term bear market.
I think we've been effectively in a longer-term bear market structurally for four or five
years.
Crypto has been screaming it the whole time.
And here we are now, we finally might have
the conditions to come out of that bear market. So I'm continuing to position for what I think
is going to be the most fun period of the last five years. It'll probably feel more like 17
timeframe or maybe a little bit like 21, although even 21 was kind of a truncated bull market that
was cut off too quickly because there was so much fraud and so many scams and so much counterparty
risk across the whole crypto ecosystem that it really wasn't even that fun, even though some
people made some money during that window. I think we're actually going to experience a real sustainable market that will be this time bolstered by the fundamentals of fidelity.
And the biggest companies in the world, BlackRock, etc., in the asset management side that are behind the space this time, whereas last time it was freaking Celsius and BlockFi and Three Arrows and Voyager and all this this crap right that wasn't solid and you had FTX and you had right you had a whole bunch of air
now when you do have a bull market which I do think is coming it'll be built on the foundation
of real companies with real balance sheets that are audited many of them are publicly traded
right it's just a totally different it's just a totally different market than any other market that we've seen
in the last couple of cycles in crypto.
So that's where I am right now.
I know everybody disagrees with me.
I'm perfectly okay with that.
That's kind of been the story of my entire career.
I'm a chartered seller, and I totally agree with you.
Hey, Mike. I know you got an eth position many
many years ago um and i'm sure you've heard me yap about what i'm about to say for a while now
but hyperliquid um you know we saw what happened with oil over the previous two weekends we saw
what happened with gold and silver and a lot of that upside volatility
came from people using Hyperliquid.
And I'm sure you bought ETH back then
when DeFi was getting rolling
and ETH had its thesis,
which for now seems to be on pause
while Vitalik talks about burritos
and how he hates AI and all that stuff.
But have you bought any bought any hyper liquid or have
been looking at it have you heard of hyperion defy time period and defy i would say the
hyperion hyperion defy have you heard of it what oh hyperion are you talking hi hyperion um
no i'm talking about Hyperliquid.
I know, but have you heard of Hyperion DeFi?
I have not.
It's a treasury company that I think it used to be called Inovia,
and they were the first publicly traded treasury company to buy a hype token.
And I know that because they reached out to me and asked me if i wanted to join their
board and i said no because i don't have the time or energy to underwrite all of these these things
um and a lot of them are gonna end up imploding as you know especially um anything beyond bitcoin
and ethereum like there's a high chance that some of these things will end up blowing up and, and reputationally, it's just like, I don't want to get involved in stuff like that, but it is
interesting. And there certainly has to be other narratives and other, uh, ideas that work in
crypto beyond just a handful of things. Um, but look, I, I saw the tweet from Vitalik, um, and
he's not wrong. Like, you should stop eating.
Like, I'm intermittent fasting right now,
and you feel fucking great when you stop eating, right?
Like, it is true.
But I don't know why he's tweeting about that.
He has no background in that.
He's not an expert in – you can tell he's not an expert in exercise
or diet or anything.
So I find it odd.
But look, I think as a reasonable speculation, if you believe like I do that crypto has gone too negative and the sentiment is too negative and the positioning is too bearish and there's going to be a substantial bounce, at the very least, if not a longer-term bull market forming,
then Ethereum is a logical candidate to have a 2, 3, 4, 5x.
And so as a small portion of my broader positioning,
I'm still adding the iShares Ethereum ETF.
I bought, I don't know, 7,000 or 8,000 shares of it today.
I think as of right now, I have 417,000 shares of ETH.
It's about as big as I want it to be.
It's like 5% or 6% of my portfolio right now.
And again, total speculation.
I don't have any deep fundamental reason why it should go up 5x.
I'm just pretty confident that when crypto starts to catch a bit again and gets some of the liquidity rotation that I think is coming, that Ethereum will do fine.
And it will probably outperform Bitcoin for some period of time because it hasn't for many, many years.
I think the last time that it did any sustainable way was like five or six years ago.
And so just from a mean reversion standpoint, I think you can count on it to do pretty well the next time Bitcoin does well.
And I expect that to be potentially as soon as the next few months.
Yeah, I feel the same way about Hyperliquid.
I feel the same way about Hyperliquid.
Again, you have a platform that within two years, it's the greatest startup story ever.
They didn't really raise much money from VCs at all.
It's mostly just from the community and the fees that they've printed.
But we're talking about a company that, not a company, but we're talking about a product that has made net rev of close to a bill while the nasdaq made five bill and the
nasdaq has been around for decades and you know when i look at ethereum right ethereum's narrative
was stable coins and all that stuff rwas um and defy defy kind of capped out with synthetics and synthetics um and that narrative
tokenized stocks and all that stuff moved on over to hyperliquid and you actually have volume like
there is more volume on hyperliquid than than on ave or compound or any of these other big defy
platforms on ethereum it's pushing it's
pushing coinbase's number yeah dude i i think i'm the only fucking person that has that is going
crazy over like the underpricing over hyper liquid arthur hayes been talking about a lot recently
he just wrote it yeah yeah yeah i saw i think it's going to 150 like we talk about
anything that has a growth story like solana 2022 uh late 2022 early 23 or ethereum in early 2019
after all the icos people don't understand but like ethereum's rise in 2017 was purely off of
the basis that you had a bunch of people buying ETH for these ICOs.
And then throughout 2018, you had all these ICO companies dumping all of their Ethereum ruthlessly.
And you had one of the biggest ICOs, Substratum.
They dumped all of their ETH.
Same thing with a few other ICOs.
Few remember Substratum, bro bro or any of these other um
shit coins that ico'd and had all this eth and dumped it to 80 bucks and then you had synthetics
network um going live i think in like like 2019 right around when unis a few months before uniswap
went live and then i remember i saw this video from chico crypto giving few months before uniswap went live and then i remember i saw this video
from chico crypto giving the thesis on uniswap and all that stuff and i'm like this this thing
is fucking genius and it played out like the narrative played out now it's just like
eth needs something more because hyperliquid is capturing another pool of, I call it unsophisticated capital, right?
People that aren't really too familiar with this market, and they still want to trade their market, specifically equities.
And it's like, all right, you know, I want to get into crypto, but I also still want to play my market.
Something that's liquid has volume, and it's this thing.
And they don't pay people.
There is no, they don't pay people there is no
they don't have payroll or any of that stuff um so you don't have that supply overhang where there is a soul foundation they need to pay people they have um insane dilutionary tokenomics because of
their validators and all that stuff they all dump um and the market cap is up only right now
compared to any flows that come in to buy the flows from token dilution is a lot stronger
um than any sort of buying power for salt look for soul to go into price discovery
um you would need like three times the amount of buying power
because the market cap would effectively be a lot more um
when soul gets back to 300 that's insane that's actually crazy But I do think it's going to go into prices.
If you really like hype, you should take a look at HYPD, Hyperion DeFi.
I'm surprised you're not all over that already.
It was up today.
I have not.
Like, I think that thing.
What's the ticker?
HYPD.
It used to be called Inovia, and then they changed the name to Hyperion DeFi,
and it's the first hype.
Oh, they're up 9%.
But hype was up 15% over the last two hours.
But the point is just, I made this point before.
People were too excited about the treasury model six months, a year, up to 18 months ago with MSTR, right?
People were too excited and they they got over
hyped and it was viewed as this like infinite money glitch that could just build its own flywheel
forever and it was just too early right it was it was too early and in some ways mstr kind of traced
out the end of that part of the cycle before anything else right it it went pure full parabolic in
november of 2024 and bitcoin and ethereum didn't even top until october of 25 right so like like
11 months early and you still had some bull market energy in 2025 after mstr peaked right because
you had a bunch of bitcoin treasury companies like
meta planet that ran later and that's how you know this is just a continuation of a very healthy
cycle because you're not seeing like correlations go to one you're not seeing
everything go up and down together you're seeing waves and you're seeing like pretty major rotations
every one two three months across crypto in and out crypto, in and out of equities, large caps, small caps, value versus growth, international versus domestic, etc.
And so what I think you really have to ask is, long term, is there something meaningful in the treasury company space period, right? Because for a while there,
there was just a bunch of idiots throwing stuff at a wall, right? Like launching new treasury companies with no differentiating strategy, like the 75th version of trying to be Michael Saylor.
And now the field has started to clear because you got enough damage done. You had enough
companies basically get wiped out. You had enough pretenders be revealed as pretenders.
And so what's left now are people like Michael Saylor who have stood the test of time.
Everybody who didn't read any of his filings and didn't understand the structure who were saying
he was going to get liquidated have now been basically outed as imposters, right? They've
been outed as charlatans who don't really know anything about investing. They're just spouting
off about stuff that they haven't actually done the work. So they don't realize that Michael
Saylor cannot be liquidated anywhere near these levels. There's no trigger for that. And so,
yeah, there are some other treasury companies that tried to be Michael Saylor who are in a world of
hurt because they have no sustainable model. But then there are folks that are building other versions of STRC,
which are viable products in a world where people need yield.
If you can actually offer a yield that's better than the market
and it actually proves to be sustainable,
then you have a business model.
And so, look, I don't know which ones.
Like, is Bitmine Immersion going to be a winner in Ethereum?
Still remains to be seen.
Is Sharpling Gaming going to be a winner in ethereum still remains to be seen is sharp link gaming going to be a winner maybe right is hyperion defy going to be a winner with hype i
don't know i don't really know whether hype has the ability the legs to run 10 years or not like
bitcoin ethereum but it appears to me that bitcoin ethereum are so seasoned now that even if you hate
them and even if you have some narrative reason why you don't think they can go up in the short term it's hard to deny that they are
they're sort of too Lindy at this point right they've been around too long
they're too entrenched they have too much decentralization such that they're
not going away and so if you're building a Treasury company and you actually have
some reasonably good strategy as like MSTR seems to with strc that it's going to be hard to stop them
right i mean like mstr still adding bitcoin below their cost basis of their whole stash
so they're buying at 70 and their cost basis 75 and there's no reason for them to stop
as long as strc trades over 100 so i think i just think a lot of people are too easily manipulated by sentiment and price
action where when things are too good as they were in November of 24, they're too willing to believe
the bullshit. And then when things are too bad as they are right now, they're too willing to believe
the chart squigglers and kid analysts who are saying we have to go lower because things feel
bad. And it's like, no, do the work, study the structures, and then make a decision that stands the test of time.
Make a decision that's not predicated on what the price is, right?
Like, the prices are going to go up or down.
They're down now, and later they'll go up.
And your view and your thesis should not be predicated at all
on what anyone else is saying on Twitter or what the prices are doing.
Because if they are, then you just won't make any money in this game. Like, Twitter or what the prices are doing. Because if they are,
then you just won't make any money in this game.
That's just the way this works.
Mike, maybe you can take this question, or Louie. I wanted to ask
when do you guys feel
like that, since
the S&P has been holding up pretty well,
when do you think it's going to roll over?
Because some of these global indexes, right,
they've been pretty weak.
Europe has been weak.
Asia has been weak.
I'm just wondering, man, considering your tweet, Louis,
maybe you have something to say about that.
I can't tell you when it's going to roll over,
but what I will say,
and I put the tweet up in the nest.
I did a nice little thread on Saturday, which I don't normally do, but today's move was pretty significant, in my opinion.
As a kid analyst, chart scribbler, as Mike likes to say,
we call that a single-day reversal, right, as Mike likes to say, you know, we call that a single day reversal,
right? Where you create a low and by the end of the day, you are higher than where you opened up significantly, right? And the other factor to that is volume. When you're reading volume,
you can't read a chart without volume, right? That speaks volumes, no pun intended, but it's
on the largest volume, single day volume we've seen since
exactly the april lows right so i think that's a significant move right um i think bears have had
it had a shot at you know rolling this market uh i i think we should we could have a longer way to
go i feel like um people you know think we've been in a three-year bull run or equities
have been at least, but the piece they're missing is that this three-year bull run equities have been
in these major indexes, a lot of it or most of it has been led by a handful of mega cap stocks.
We're seeing a massive dispersion occur and that's why I think we've been seeing all this chop
for the start of the year, right?
Money is coming out of these mega cap stocks
that are well overpriced.
Doesn't mean they have to be talked,
but they're gonna pause, which we've seen already.
But that money is finding homes in other niches
and sectors of these major indexes, right?
So that's why when everyone's expecting
for apocalyptic drop out of the S&P,
we've just been seeing range and shop because the money is coming out, but it's going back in.
So if we continue to see money find homes in these indexes, just in different sectors that
a lot are sitting at value prices, we probably don't see, you know, a major drop and we likely see
continuation from something like this, you know, pending, you know, no black swan, no escalation.
So I'm still fairly bullish, right? And then, you know, to piggyback on that,
which is something I've been saying for a while, and I totally agree with Mike,
you know, Bitcoin, even if we are going to have downside, right? Even if today wasn't it, right?
The S&P needs to drop to 6,500, whatever it may be.
Bitcoin's been down, is down 55% of its all-time highs,
has front run any sort of downside market-wide by five or six months now.
Our size reset on the weekly, like, even if the S&P does drop, right? Like I like to point out to this specific instance where in March of 2025, last year,
the S&P dropped 17% in like two weeks.
Bitcoin made like a 2% lower low.
It pretty much just swept its low, right?
So even if, right, the S&P does drop, I still think Bitcoin is value here.
I've been stacking sats and chilling at these prices.
And I think a lot of crypto stocks are at value prices.
Again, another sector that's been six, seven, eight months downtrend sitting on major support.
So that's what I can say.
So I think today's move was very significant.
And I think we see reversal here soon to be
honest and hyper liquid bounced off of its yearly open um a bit and it's up almost 40 year to date
um we take a look at stocks how how many stocks are up that amount.
Not many.
Not many at all, man.
With the exception of SanDisk, of course.
That thing was an absolute monster earlier in the year.
I think if we're blessed with hype retesting the yearly open again or going a little bit below that, that's a good opportunity, I would say.
How does it go down further, though, with Ethereum down 30% or so,
unless we're heading into a much deeper 2022.
I mean, the only question I have in my mind now is, is this 2022 or not?
Because if it's 2022, then things could get a lot worse over the next three to six months.
But there's just nothing that I can find that's similar between now and 2022, other
than a bunch of people screaming that we have to go lower,
which actually doesn't remind me of early 2022 as much
because a lot of people were in denial at that point
that the Fed had raised rates too rapidly
and that was going to cause everything in the risk asset landscape
to get hit all at once.
That's just not what we're seeing right now.
I do think you should expect a 10% decline in the S&P every single year.
Statistically, that's what you should see.
It doesn't mean you have to finish down,
but not having a drawdown at all in the S&P is almost unhealthy
over long periods of time.
So I don't really necessarily think that would be odd or unusual. The question
is only, you know, what's the longer term direction in risk assets? And I just, I don't
see any sign here that there's a long term top being put in. I'll be watching more closely for
that when SpaceX and OpenAI and Anthropic go out. If we see significant exuberance, like let's just say
hypothetically that the whole market goes on a major blow off top type of tear starting now
through either mid July or the fall, where, you know, everything is going up. Everybody's excited
about markets, crypto's booming, and there's a bunch of IPOs. That's an environment where
no one believes this right now because they think that a bunch of IPOs, that's an environment where no one
believes this right now because they think that I'm only bullish, but that's an environment where
I would actually become more cautious because that is the type of conditions that you will see
before major long-term tops. When I say long-term, I mean like a 12 or 18-month type of scenario where
there's a general risk-off type of market. And right now, there's just rolling
risk-off areas of the market. There isn't a broader risk-off thing. And it is possible we
just don't get a 10% drawdown in the NASDAQ and the S&P. It's possible. I'm not saying it's likely,
but it is possible because of the factor that Louis just mentioned, which is that there's so
much rotation going on under the surface that the market cap weighted indexes
are not really a good gauge right now
of what's actually happening.
Like under the surface right now,
the indexes have the smallest range
that they've ever had
this far into the year.
But under the surface,
the dispersion that Louis mentioned is huge.
I see some small cap stocks on my screen
that are up 30, 40, 50 percent. And then i see some small cap stocks on my screen that are
up 30 40 50 and then i see some that are down 30 40 50 um and but the but the index is saying
nothing's happened so i just think it's it's just one of these scenarios where you have to be in the
market you have to be a real operator you have to know your basket of securities or your basket of
crypto that you follow closely.
You really need to understand how they trade, why they trade, what the narrative is, what the fundamentals are, what the technicals are, etc.
Because if you're just reading what somebody wrote in the Wall Street Journal, some journalist who doesn't actually trade or invest in the market, you'll be really confused by what's actually happening.
Yeah, I mean, everyone's talking about, you know, comparing this to 2022.
But we didn't have the same bullish side like we did in 2021.
So everyone wants all the bearishness of what comes of that
when we didn't even get, you know, the full bullish aspect of that.
And it doesn't work that way you know we got maybe a quarter of what we saw in 2021 if that right um but everyone
wants the same carnage and bear market when meanwhile alt alts if you're specifically talking
about all coins you know they've been in bear market since since 2022 right so everyone wants
you had this apocalyptic scenario when we haven't had any bubble right
other than again like i mentioned a handful of mega cap stocks and some ai stocks uh there's a
lot of stuff sitting at value the the russell's barely even in price discovery like it looks like
the russell today low cap stocks like just retested its all-time highs right from 2021 like
that hasn't even ripping if that like mike mentioned if the russell was ripping
in the price discovery for a year now we had a major alt season um you know eve actually made
a new all-time high uh you know multiple multiple billion dollar runners in crypto and you know your
articles crypto millionaire blah blah then that's time to think okay you know what we're overdone here but we never even got that right and I think it might be different
going forward right like I think there's a lot of garbage in this market specifically crypto that
needs to go away you never come back and you know this is kind of like the uh the market kind of got
burned down to the ground and now like everyone's just picking up the pieces and whatever's left standing is going to last the test of time.
But we never saw that full bullish aspect
that would lead to a massive, long, drawn-out bear market.
So yeah, I agree with Mike there too.
The big tell for me over the last three years
is that even if you made a lot of money,
it never once felt good right i can i can
tell you from direct experience my fund was up 231 percent last year and it felt like a down year at
the end but every single year for the last three years it felt similarly um where even if you were
in a lot of the right stuff and it went up a lot like you took pretty major drawdowns and big chunks of the year felt quite quite bad during that period of time and every single time it looked
like you were going to get a more unfettered bull market like a traditional bull market where you
get a lot of liquidity rushing in and a more consistent sustained push it's everything's
sold off that isn't unlike any I've been investing for almost 27
years now, 27, 28 years by own money, right? Like I've never seen a period that feels exactly like
that. I feel, I've seen periods that felt 2009, like March, uh, 2009, right? Like those periods
were, were just like unrelentingly challenging, right? You were just grinding lower, lower,
lower. And then I've seen periods, um, that just felt really good, like long uninterrupted,
almost uninterrupted periods where it just felt like it was really easy to make money.
This sort of bottom of the liquidity cycle from early 2023, like January 23 till now,
has not felt like any period that I've ever experienced. I think a lot of that is the
cross-currents from multiple macro factors that have never been together in the exact same way, right? Like we've never had 35 to $40 trillion,
you know, US government debt
running two to $3 trillion deficits
with five or $10 trillion of money creation
in a period of time where the Fed has also raised rates
in some point during that window
in the fastest succession of 500 basis point increases
ever in history.
And so what you have is this weird dynamic
where you have the end of ZERP
and you have all this liquidity
at the same time the Fed's taking a path
and a behavior because they misread the cycle
that they've never taken before.
So you've got this like opening up of liquidity
and then slamming it shut.
And you can see that.
If you actually are in the market every day,
you can feel that like nothing is sustained nothing like goes any in one direction right for very long before
it reverts there's all these constant like whipsaw movements that are designed i think or at least
seem to be designed to like confuse people where you you head lower and bitcoin's been doing this
this whole cycle where consolidate consolidate, consolidate, consolidate,
almost looks for sure like you're going to break lower.
And then right at the period where it looks the weakest,
it bounces and starts to move higher again.
And then when it finally makes its move,
it traps so many people who flip bearish at the bottom
that when they finally decide to get bullish again,
that's when it tops out and hits resistance
and then starts to consolidate for another six to nine months. It's just not like a period of time
that I've seen. And so I think we need to all be open-minded about things potentially happening
over the next three, six, nine, 12 months that don't look like any period before. And I don't
think anything in the chart or any historical analog is going to be a perfect way to predict that.
I don't think it's going to be predictable.
The one thing I'm very confident of is that whatever the path is, it'll probably surprise
a large amount of participants because that's what markets love to do.
I think S&P 500 and NASDAQ probably, it's interesting where they are right now because previous week
to date, unlike S&P 500, like previous week to date anchored VWAP, that's kind of rejecting.
But, you know, like a lot of people are saying, you know, Bitcoin doesn't have to, like NASDAQ
could go, S&P 500, NASDAQ could have a typical 10, 15% correction. That doesn't mean Bitcoin has to go to freaking 30K.
I mean, it could stay, you know, theoretically in the 50s or something of that nature.
You know, keep in mind, MicroStrategy bottomed way before Bitcoin bottomed back in 2022.
MicroStrategy bottomed in May of 2022.
Bitcoin did not bottom until November.
Bitcoin, or excuse me, MicroStrategy even bottomed earlier than Ethereum. So you got to keep that in mind as well. So I would argue that, you know, next couple
months, potentially S&P 500, NASDAQ, like, I think, you know, we, there's a lot of geopolitical
stuff too. We'll see what ends up happening with that. But I could see those going down,
you know, your typical 10% that, you know, everybody should expect. I think it's once
every two years or once every year on average, that's that typical 10% correction. So you likely would see that,
you know, I could see a big, I think, you know, as I've been saying, you know,
somewhere between March to June is kind of in the window for a Bitcoin potential bottom. So,
you know, I think that a lot of people, you know, they, they, they get too like
obsessed with trying to time the exact bottom or by the exact bottom. I think,
you know, theoretically the average bear market is eight to ten months and this is not just for
bitcoin this is for the stock market s&p 500 as well so if you were to dca you know from now
until october it would make perfect sense and i mean i don't think it's likely you would hit
a new all-time high by then and even if we did you'd still be in a pretty good position hey evan
high by then and even if we did you'd still be in a pretty good position hey evan do you think
bear markets and equities are just inherently different and i want to give some context right
there hasn't really been a broad drawdown in equities post gfc that has lasted more than
six months and i understand you had a select few names making lower lows after June of
22. But from an indice level, most of the damage, right, was done in June, you made a slightly lower
low in q4 later that year. And by q1 q2, you were you were printing like crazy and we look at a trump regime uh i'm not sure if you were on the
spaces um after trump coin had launched but during that time period post trump coin um
i was talking about oh kanye west wants to launch a coin if there's going to be any downside
and equities were kind of distributing,
it's going to happen really quick
during a Trump administration.
He likes volatility.
Any sort of downside that's going to happen in the market
is probably going to happen within a quarter
or a quarter and a half at best.
We look at 2018 during the thing.
It was called the taper tantrum.
Taper tantrum.
SPX and NQ had peaked in early September and they found the bottom in early December.
And history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
We look at tech layoffs, they happen a lot quicker than they did post.com or GFC or any of that stuff.
And I feel like with any sort of downside,
it happens a lot quicker than people expect,
especially now with the COVID crash that happened six years ago.
People love that shock and awe.
And this whole thing of like,
oh, bear markets last a couple of years or over a year we don't really have that many data points um after gfc and i think gfc kind of like covid just changed the trajectory of how the way
money moves um we take a look at what happened after COVID, the velocity of how things are priced in are insane.
And now with Hyperliquid, you double that now.
You take a look at what happened to commodities.
And if you were to tell anyone 10 years ago, like, hey, during certain periods of uncertainty, there's going to be this crypto platform called Hyperliquid that is going to have all of these big desks from TradFi trade commodities before futures open on Sunday night.
They would have called you a crazy person.
They would have called you a nut job.
And here we are. And so you ask yourself, like,
how do you price in something like Hyperliquid, which isn't dependent on bull or bear markets,
it's dependent on volume. And if you have the rate of information being put out in such a
velocity, and you have all these people in prediction markets and all that
stuff people can go and vote on kalshi if there's a poll that opens up or on polymarket and they can
flat out say bitcoin bottoming by may of 2026 or by april of 26 or the bitcoin the bitcoin will not
make a lower low by X date or whatever,
whatever the fuck, they can bottom or top an asset just off of a vote.
They make wars happen now on prediction markets.
So it's like the term bull or bear market is so thrown around now
where it should just be called small periods of risk off in a greater trend
that's up bingo right bingo that's what i was trying to say earlier this this fascination with
having to label everything is definitively a bull or bear market and then it has to have a certain
time frame or even the definition of a bear market being 20% is sort of arbitrary because we know in crypto, 20% is nothing.
Like real bear markets historically in crypto are 60, 70, 80 plus percent.
If that happens in equity markets, people are jumping off buildings because equity markets, investors are pussies.
And if you're down 5 or 10%, they're like losing their mind.
You can see it on X.
Crypto people are okay with larger amounts of volatility than equity people are. pussies. And if you're down five or 10%, they're like losing their mind. You can see it on X.
Crypto people are okay with larger amounts of volatility than equity people are. So why are we using outdated equity definitions of what a bull and bear market is to describe a totally different
asset class? There's just so much nuance here. And a lot of the conversation I think is just
dumbed down because people are afraid of saying what's real.
Right. So when I say there's been no bull market in crypto, I mean that. I don't care if some kid who's read a book about investing says, well, every bear market has to have these characteristics.
That's all fucking made up in the first place. If you're in the market and you actually understand
investing and you make money investing as your primary job, you'll have a better sense
for what's actually happening in the market than somebody who just reads a book that describes
what a bear market is. But a lot of people just don't get that yet. They're still parroting the
same old bullshit. And the market structure has completely changed. We didn't even have crypto
20 years ago. So if you want to use a 20-year-old definition of what a bull or bear market is,
then yeah, you're using
the wrong word to describe the current reality. Well, also like with equities, just like a little
bit of a difference too is, you know, imagine like if we had paychecks that just allocated
to that market every two weeks. I mean, it's like totally, you know, part of it's propped up from
all the 401k buying. And then there's the plunge protection team. Like, you know, there's, there's like literally a team
that goes in there and, you know, try to levitate it back up. Like we don't, we don't have that in
crypto. So, you know, it's a little different. Wait, you don't, you don't think tether is the
plunge protection team? Well, okay. Maybe like a proxy, but you know, we don't have like just
straight allocation, you know, across the board, like we do in equities, you know? Yeah, okay, maybe like a proxy, but you know, we don't have like just straight allocation, you know, across the board like we do in equities, you know?
Yeah, no, I agree.
I was just kidding.
But Binance is sort of like big short sellers and quant market makers, right?
And then Tether is sort of like the Federal Reserve, right?
There's some good analogies.
But I agree with you.
And this is something I've been saying for a long time.
Like equities are a much more manipulated market it's funny because people think the opposite because
equities trade so smoothly because of the inflows from index funds and 401ks as you accurately
described that people think that a healthy market is smoothed out and looks really clean and doesn't
have as big drawdowns as often
But actually like in the long run it makes it less anti fragile, which is why you
Constantly have to have bailouts for the traditional system every time something breaks exactly
So manipulated by the powers that be up until it breaks that it doesn't self-correct whereas because there's no circuit
breaker for bitcoin it it looks nasty when it trades a lot of days and it definitely is more
volatile but it heals itself without needing any external intervention it's it's telling the truth
right i think about that meme like you can't handle the truth like bitcoin tells the truth
you know all these other all these uh other markets are highly manipulated but yeah
they're made to look all smooth to not scare the uneducated you know got their financial advisor
allocating you know they don't like it that's like that that pairs into this whole narrative
of people like oh i'm just really scared of the volatility it's like listen homeboy that's that's
that's real okay like this this thing that you think you don't have volatility in equities is it's maybe a
trade in the devaluation of the dollar that there props it up so there is volatility you just don't
see it amen well thanks for having me guys uh have a great night and uh good luck nice to meet
you mike yeah nice to see you no problem yeah it was a great show, guys. I'm going to go ahead and wrap up as well.
So, guys, if you've been enjoying the content, if you've been enjoying the show and all the yaps that's been going on here over the last three hours, my name is Wabi, and I'm the host of the show that you're listening to right now called Market Talk.
market talk i go live here on x spaces monday through friday with the usual start time of 3 30
pm est to 3 45 pm esc usually between that time window is when i go live so if you liked the
discussions that i had here with all the other speakers go ahead and follow not only the because
bitcoin account but also all the other profiles here up on the panel.
Follow my personal profile that's here on stage at KingWabi.
Follow Norton. Follow Evan. Follow Mike. Follow Louie.
Follow everyone else who participated on today's show.
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Follow Matt as well. Shout out to all the speakers. And guys, not only do we have free shows here for you on a daily basis here on X Spaces,
but we also have a YouTube show that is hosted Monday through Friday at 1130 AM ESC called Market Check.
And that is your show if you're into all things charting, technical analysis, and all that good stuff.
That show is our shorter show.
It usually goes on for just over an hour, sometimes under an hour.
And Market Talk usually goes on for about two to three hours.
Sometimes we do extend the show upwards to five or seven hours, sometimes eight hours.
five or seven hours sometimes eight hours and that's all dependent on the volatility of the
market the number of speakers things to talk about with news and all that stuff and just general
banter sometimes these shows do go on for that amount of time so once again not only do we have
x spaces here but we also have a youtube show for you guys so feel free to follow the because bitcoin account and turn on bell notifications so you can be made aware of those shows and also we do strive to be one of the
fastest pages here on x when it comes to posting real-time news updates with all markets we talk
all things crypto we talk all things stocks anything that's tradable, anything that's trending, we like to talk about.
And we also do like to talk about things that we feel that are going to give some alpha in the markets.
Over the last few months, we've discussed oil before the huge parabolic run.
We discussed Sandisk before the huge parabolic run.
We've talked about Hyperliquid liquid relentlessly which is up 40 year to
date and I personally think it's going to be one of the greatest trades for majors moving forward
over the next two years and feel free to give us a follow as I said and for those of you that want
to join a community we do have that The links to that is in our bio.
We have a Discord group with multiple channels covering all things markets.
And we also have private live streams there, which are all archived in a separate channel in case you guys miss out on those.
And for those that want to add something to their arsenal, tools to navigate these markets we do have our
very own trading terminal as well called bb terminal the link to that is also in our bio
and i'll go ahead and post that up on the nest guys we have various indicators and multiple things
coming to the terminal later on this year so make sure to follow bb terminal as well and we also have
some automated strategy products that are going to be released out to you guys which you guys are
going to absolutely love so we have everything in regards to markets for you all whether it's crypto
trad fi whether it's um if you guys like free content like you guys listen to today, whether you guys like community, we have that as well.
We have premium products.
So think of Because Bitcoin as a one-stop shop for all your market needs with a huge emphasis on crypto, of course.
That's why we're called Because Bitcoin.
So with that being said, shout out to all the speakers.
God bless each and every single
one of you thank you all so much for tuning into today's show whether you're here live listening
to the recording whether this is your first time tuning in thank you thank you thank you
whether you've been tuning in every day every week thank you thank you and we'll be back tomorrow
we'll be back tomorrow so follow because bitcoin
account guys and feel free to tell a friend to tell a friend about who we are and what we do and
also follow all the speakers thank you to all the speakers once again and shout out to my lord and
savior jesus christ for allowing me another day of health to talk markets with you all we've been
on a roll with these faces all year so i gotta give the glory back to the lord so i'll see you guys tomorrow take care Thank you.
