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MARKET TALK- BOTTOM IS IN?! MELT UP SOON FOR CRYPTO?! WHATS NEXT?!
Recorded: March 25, 2026 Duration: 2:26:04Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I'm going to go. Thank you. I'm a man who's a man who's a man who's a man who's a man who's a man who's a man who's Oh Oh Music I said you're pulling us on We fasted eyes everywhere
What I do become
Playing the world and playing your league
We still do the undertake
Just grind yourself beyond a single
So you carry on
All you carry on
All you carry on
All you carry on We see you back you can't you
I Oh Thank you. Music Thank you. Yeah! Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh Hello. so yo what's going on guys it has been uh a couple of days since we haven't done the show I think I'll get into what happened
probably further down on the show I don't want to make this a monologue for what happened but I am
just grateful to be here the weekend for me was not great at all whatsoever. Went through some complications on Friday, but yeah,
it was quite something, honestly. You never know what life throws at you when you get
some checkups, but I think that just goes to show that I think everyone here, if you're in markets and you spend an exuberant amount of time behind the screen, whether it's charting or doing research or whatever, just talking to people about markets.
Usually what I do typically like every one month to three months, basically every four to 12 weeks, I like to have a day where I just do
all of my medical checkups. And I think you'd be surprised at what you find out and what you
could actually prevent rather than just doing a yearly checkup. I think that's the biggest
disservice that you could ever do to yourself. Just thinking that your body only needs to do
a yearly checkup, which is honestly the dumbest thing that you can do to yourself just thinking that your body only needs to do a yearly checkup which is
honestly the dumbest thing that you can do to yourself you want to be here for the long term
but uh anyways um quite the price action in crypto you have an entire bull market going on
on subnets um the only subnet we've talked about here on the show is Templar, but
I did do some research over the last like 48 hours. I do like Targon as well.
I also looked up SN97, which is a project. It's another subnet that uh one of the bit tensor founders um are doing so if you guys
don't know how to bridge the towel um i'll probably post up like a little video up on the nest it's
actually quite quite cool it's quite interesting but it is a ponzi it's basically like polka dot
and all the other pair chains and kusama and all that stuff. And it's actually one of the only tokens that are actually in an uptrend next to Hyperliquid.
We mentioned Tao here on the show in previous streams,
and I'm pairing it right next to Hyperliquid, at least for now,
if the market really is bottomed out.
And my thoughts still remain the same.
If we haven't made new lows by the time the new Fed chair comes in, I think we're bottomed,
called top on oil. And this whole war thing with Iran, I think it's honestly just an excuse to justify the market weakness when I think,
in all reality, I think the broader market just needed a correction. But here on the show,
we have marked out some of the stronger names like Sandisk, for for example which is experiencing a little bit of a pullback but
i mean that's fine um i think long-term sandisk still hits that 800 850 mark um that's like the
upper region that uh that i discussed uh before they even do stock splits by the way um nibius
is also holding up as well so despite the little downtrend that uh the indices experienced
the year to date up until those lows we hit on friday there have been bull markets in other
places we also had consumer staples earlier in the year in january coca-cola target home depot
stuff like that lily as well um those are names that David gave on the show.
And then, you know, Sandisk.
I've been yapping about that since like November of last year.
And that stock has honestly been such a blessing.
And also, crypto market stuff like Hyperliquid, which I still think the comparison that you can can give to something like hype would be BNB in late 2018, early 2019.
As the crypto market bottomed out, BNB was one of the stronger names that held up and right out of the gate was one of the first ones that hit price discovery.
price discovery and I'm sure if any of you are still filling your timeline with crypto trading
and all that stuff instead of all this news propaganda because the algorithm has kind of
sucked over the last few weeks then I'm sure that you've seen things like BitTensor and I'm sure
you've seen people meme BitTensor like oh now is when everybody cares about the tech and all that
stuff but um for most people catching bottoms is kind of the dumbest thing that you can do you want
to catch the token when it's actually facing momentum and then you catch the beta and with
tau it's been uh it's been the subnets things like Templar, and now things like Targon, which I did see Intel,
they are working with them. So some of these subnets are actual tech that do produce revenue
and all that stuff. And even though you might be late to the party, at least you kind of know what
music is playing at the party. The only thing to be cautious of is if you do see Tau pull back 10%, 15%,
a lot of these subnet tokens will mark down 30% to 40%.
So this is no different than playing on-chain,
whether it's on Solana or whether it's on base.
And you do have to ask yourself, how long is this going to last?
As we have seen, whenever other chains do have their seasons,
they're typically short-lived.
But it has been a couple of weeks since these subnets have been rallying.
I think we had Norton on the show, not last week, but the week before that.
We were talking some Tao, we were talking some tau we were talking some
subnets and um yeah they've all been doing quite great but again it is a bit more complicated to
bridge the tau um most of these subnet tokens are on chain almost none of them are available on
centralized exchanges or on a clean interface like a Uniswap or a Jupiter.
It is a bit more complicated.
But as I said, I probably will post a video up on the nest.
But it's pretty simple.
If you have access to the Internet, just go on YouTube and you'll learn how to bridge right there.
But it is all susceptible to Tau volatility to the upside or the downside.
And right now, there is some breadth on tau as there was on hyperliquid over the last couple
of weeks. And as far as equities, equities have really just been slow grinding up since the Friday close. I know there's been a hope for a ceasefire in regards to the war,
and the equity markets are trying to squeeze that out. Same thing with oil kind of pulling back
earlier on today's session, but it did rally into the close. And i think it's kind of the same thing as 2022 you
see a big spike up on oil for a couple of weeks and then it's kind of no man's land as it
distributes and then ultimately you just get a bunch of people that were late to the trade just
pile on and it distributes and then it goes through a lengthy correction and that was it oil has
typically been an asset that usually only has one strong quarter and then for the most part that's
kind of all that that you'll get for the year honestly um if that's if you factor in price action post GFC.
I think looking at previous price action for a lot of assets, it's kind of meaningless outside of dot-com.
And I say dot-com because AI is kind of in its dot-com moment.
And at some point, that is going to trickle down into crypto.
But for broader markets, it's really only susceptible to a few names.
It's the MAG7, essentially, and a few of these data centers, whether it's IREN, whether it's Nibius.
whether it's Nibius and earlier during previous shows.
I did mention that I was going to get a Solaris position, which I did on Friday.
I bought it at like $60.
So we'll see how that goes.
Market cap is at $4 bill.
is at four bill and um i remember last summer uh i was discussing iron with um a few people
here on the show it was just range bound between like 13 to 15 bucks and i think 15 was its range
high and the market cap for iron was very similar uh to solar. Although what Iron did have against Solaris
was the unit cost price per share,
and retail loves that stuff.
They love their unit bias,
but we'll see what happens.
It's just a trade that I got from Matt C.
He was talking about that name
um from like i think from like 30 or 35 bucks so essentially this is a breakout buy um
so i i i just put my nuts on the line and we're gonna see where that goes goes. I do think there's going to be a longer bull market in AI within TradFi, a lot longer than people expect.
And I think things like Solaris and a few of these other AI data centers are more better plays, honestly, than a lot of crypto majors i think it's better than
something like an ethereum better than bnb xrp uh definitely more than solana um again these are
these are tokens that have like a three to five x multiple on a lot of these stratify names and we've seen how quickly the
velocity of money goes into into some of these names you take a look at sandisk for example
this is a company that has a market cap of well over 100 billion and when we were talking about
sandisk on the show it had a market cap of well over 20 bill. I think it was trading at between 20 to 25 bill.
Sandus, we were talking about it in November.
And this thing essentially added decabillions to its market cap in less than six months.
So for those that think that stocks can't really move as much as all coins, then I think you'd be surprised.
Same thing with things like iron.
You take a look at when iron started pumping between three to five bill market cap.
It's made of the move from the summer of last year all the way until the late fall.
Take a look at any crypto asset that was trading along that market cap and compare it to something
like iron a lot of these tokens barely budged from the second half of the
second half of the summertime which is usually like late July early August all
the way until November let's say November December hardly any moved at
all so I think the proof is in the pudding i think most people that have
stayed active post 10 10 have kind of realized that all right i can actually go and play other
markets i can not only play in the crypto market but i can also play in trad fi and in trad fi you have one
thing that the crypto market hasn't really gone but I do think it will have
and that is options the options markets the the greatest financial instrument if
you want to talk volume if you want to talk pure liquidity and volume the
options market is a greatest instrument of velocity.
And you guys know I'm bullish on DRIV.
Although I do think that one is going to be kind of like more of a slow cooker.
I do think crypto options are going to be something big.
And eventually, crypto options will have their hyperliquid moment. And I think
that probably comes next year during the pre-halving year. I think you'll start to see a lot of
narratives pop up. And I think if you're bullish on the crypto industry growing,
I think options is the last piece of the puzzle um we already have consumer apps
right you have things like a fomo you have things like moonshot um you have things like coinbase
right these easy to use apps click of a button uh execution trading order execution all that
stuff copy trading all that stuff that people like.
And now you also have perpetuals.
You have decentralized perpetuals that actually has real liquidity,
incredible amounts of volume, and that is hyperliquid.
So you have perps, you have consumer apps,
and the last piece of the puzzle is options.
For those that play equities, I'm sure at some point,
if you've been trading equities for more than two years,
I'm sure you've bought some calls or some puts in between that time.
And you've seen the amount of money that you can buy, even leaps, right?
And in crypto, the only way to play those is through Daribit. but there isn't a token that is a benefactor from
all that volume darabit right now as far as i know doesn't have a token or doesn't plan to have a
token um i think all they did was like an equity round a long a long time ago and by a long time
ago i'm talking about like before people even knew who Zuzu was or Three Arrows Capital.
So we're talking like 2017 through 2019, basically essentially like pre-COVID times.
And you still have Deribit maintaining most of the options volume, but if we talk on-chain, Deriv gets essentially like 97% of all options on-chain.
And then you have your smaller platforms, but it's kind of like a couple of years ago, if you guys remember, some of the platforms that existed before Hyperliquidid you had dydx and you had gmx and
then when hyperliquid came around it essentially stole most of the pie and that's kind of how i'm
seeing derivative right now but um looking at majors nothing's really happening on majors
outside of some soul outperformance uh which is to be expected. Solana, you're always going to have some sort of nominal buyer on sole
with people that have survived.
It's basically like I think of sole as the cockroach token, right?
If anyone has survived the chop or any downside, in between that trend,
you're going to have some people that have survived out of that cohort
buy sold so they can gamble on chain,
which there have been some things that have trended on sold.
But again, the ceiling right now on sold,
it's still kind of the same that it has been over the last few months you have
some tickers that cap out at like 15 mil 30 mil 50 or 60 mil and if you take a look at least once
a month there's always some sort of runner right um in january you had had the Penguin token.
February, you had Punch.
And then this month, you had War.
And then White Whale.
White Whale, I think, actually started trending heavily in December.
So every month, there's always a ticker that does tend to go above 50 mil.
And then you have your smaller basket of tokens.
You always have some sort of crime happening on Binance.
We saw Pippin blasting off like crazy earlier in the year.
You also had ARK.
Now you have this thing called Siren, which is honestly ridiculous, man.
This thing is trading at a market cap of like
two bill um and the volume is is that like 90 or something like that and i've only seen it on coin
gecko i have not seen this thing on my timeline no one has inboxed me about this. So it's kind of like one of those tokens
that were just dead on Binance futures.
And then you just had a bunch of people
stockpile, buy supply and just run it up.
So it has been an entertaining market,
even though it has been bearish for the most part.
But again, I, the woods, once Warsh comes in and we haven't made new lows,
you usually want to give yourself a couple of months before trying to call bottom
and you want to wait for these catalysts to play out,
which I think a new Fed chair, if there's going to be any major dump,
I think it's going to happen going into his inauguration or a week or two.
So then we'll probably have that summer rally.
I think that's going to be great.
Usually every summer there's this insane rally that happens, even if it is a bear market.
It's happened over the last 10 plus years since the great financial crisis.
In TradFi and in crypto, same thing.
Over the last decade, the summer has usually been a time where
breadth is a lot bigger than people want to give credit for.
Last summer was great.
The summer before that was great.
Even though the summer of 24, you only had a select few tokens.
I think the signal was strong enough.
I think if you guys remember, if you were just active on the timeline, then you knew that, all right, I'm just going to buy Giga and Retardio.
It's going to be great.
And I'm just going to giga and retardio it's gonna be great and i'm just gonna
i'm just gonna buy any big pullback um and soul trenches back then where were very lively smoking
chicken fish was another one it was just the most like asinine ridiculous ridiculous trend that i've
ever seen in crypto um and i remember when giga was trending that was a token that we were talking about here
on the show um after that breakout at like 15 15 mil or 20 mil or something like that
um and it was pretty based man i think giga eventually topped out just under a billion
like a week or two after the election so it was a great it was a great um it was a great
time to be in the market honestly um in 2023 you had some signal as well i think that was like
like what defy summer was in 2020 i think that's what on chain was um during that first wave of 2023 people were winning all over you had optimism
doing well um you had your first wave of breath on soul you had things like rollbit
popping off um i think soul yeah soul actually had its on-chain season after the summer i'm
sorry i'm getting the timeline kind of messed up a bit i'm sorry guys if i uh sound a bit sluggish this is my um
it's actually like my first day um not taking as much antibiotics and meds so i'm still kind of like
recovering and all that stuff so if my energy is a little bit down, just blame the meds, but it's better to be on meds than to be in a bunch of pain, honestly.
But those are kind of my thoughts to start off the show.
I'm going to have a number of people come up, probably more towards like 5 p.m.
Just the usual crowd, guys, Just the usual crowd, as always. It's going to be a great show, but I wanted the first bit to just be myself and to kind of give you guys my thoughts on the market and stuff like that.
And because it's my first day back, and I know I'm talking about this as if I've been gone for like a month, even though I've only missed like two shows.
I do want some of you guys to come on up if you'd like.
So if you're tuning in right now and you want to come up, feel free to do so.
But before that, guys, if y'all can go ahead and show some love to the space, to the stream, guys, just click the spaces tab.
Guys, just click the spaces tab.
Once you guys do that, right above on the nest, you'll see that nice link that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
Hit the like button, that little heart button, and the repost button, guys.
It does a number of things.
Helps bring the show more out into the algorithm.
Brings more people in.
And all that good stuff helps please our overlords and uh who
knows as i always say if you guys uh share and like the stream and it gets pushed out into the
maybe some of your favorite traders actually do uh end up seeing the show and um i can bring them
up and uh we'll talk some shop but if anyone in the audience wants to come on up, you'll see a little mic button to the bottom left.
Just click that.
It'll send me a notification, and I'll bring you right on up, guys.
So, yeah.
Outside of that, I think just waiting probably like another week as FOMC was last week.
And we typically have a trending move usually one to two weeks out after the FOMC.
That's something that I've said for years on the show.
Usually the week or two after FOMC, markets don't really do much.
And then you see somewhat of a trending move.
And crypto loves to front run that stuff.
So for now, I think playing subnets could be something.
If you miss Tau playing some of these subnets with high volume and higher market caps.
and higher market caps.
And what is fascinating is a lot of these subnets,
if you combine their market cap,
it's still lower than the valuation.
If you compare BitTensor and all the subnets
and all that stuff,
the valuation is still less than the virtual's all-time high,
which is, I think, at 5 bill or something like that.
And virtual's hasn't really done much year-to-date, but if you go to the year-to-date chart,
it has been making a sequence of higher highs and higher lows it's just been a lot slower this
thing has been very very very very slow and ultimately you would need ETH and
soul to both mark up aggressively as that's where most of the liquidity is on virtuals it's it's on chain it's
on ETH and it's on Solana as well and I think if we just look at other things like Pepe where yeah
it's listed on centralized exchanges and you have perps and all that stuff most of the volume whether it's buy or sell still happens on chain
most of the activity happens on chain and for on chain to do well um for most of these assets
you're going to need eth and soul to be in a higher time frame uptrend and for a lot of these on-chain tokens you're probably not going to have that until
uh both eth and soul are above their 2026 yearly open um so for soul that would be like 124 125
and for eth man for eth that's a whole story. You're talking about a gap up to about $3,000. That is going to take a lot of buying pressure. I think you would need just as much buying pressure as you did last year when all the digital treasury talking about how ETH is the future on finance
and how everything is going to be tokenized on ETH.
And, I mean, you fast forward a couple of months later
and it's all happening on Hyperliquid.
The tokenization of everything is happening on hyper liquid we saw that with uh precious metals
um that's that's ridiculous man you saw that not only on metals um but also on just stock trading
in general you now have the s p 500 and also the also the Dow Jones with perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid.
That's insane.
You take a look at the biggest competitor that ETH has.
If you want to compare it to Hyperliquid, GMX, you don't really have many people on GMX anymore or talking about GMX.
You definitely don't have much activity going on within Synthetix, if you guys remember that.
That was actually the first platform within crypto that offered Synthetix trading with stock tickers, just equities in general.
with stock tickers just equities in general and you're talking about a ticker that had a valuation
in the billions five years ago and it was the hottest thing if you were if you were a proponent
of ethereum and now you have this new kid on the block that has essentially captured so much market share within crypto,
where if you go on hyperliquid,
most of the things that are trending isn't even tickers.
They're equities.
Most of the volume that happens on hyperliquid is oil
and equities in general.
It's insane.
So as I said, I think the proof is in the pudding and
during this confusion during this uncertainty in the market you want to look at strength and things that are trending because when the overall market turns around those things that showed strength are just gonna blow out of the gate and perform
exceptionally well um if you guys remember after we bottomed uh after the ftx blowout
bitcoin and eth kind of stalled out after that huge rally that we saw uh in mid-march
late march i think we hit 30K or something like that.
30 to 31K.
I know that was like a huge top for like eight months in crypto.
I think it happened a few weeks after SVB where we retested 18, 19K.
And you'll remember during that chop, you had meme coins just showing the most ridiculous strength.
We saw Pepe go to a billion.
We saw Mog hit like 60 mil.
HPOS, the Harry Potter, Obamasonic, Teninu hit like 50 mil, 40 mil as well.
And even though now it didn't really seem like much, back then when BTC was trading around 24 to 30, it was massive.
The market wasn't as diluted and there was a lot more signal instead of noise.
And now we're seeing things like hyperliquid maintain the strength and we're now seeing
tau as well, kind of giving that second strongest asset where it's like, all right, I can play
in a different ticker, in a different sector.
You're seeing subnets pop off.
And this is while you have the stock market trending down.
This is while you have the broader crypto market kind of choppy.
So you have two periods.
You have spring of 23 and also the fall of 23 when you saw things like the Qs during the fall, making lower lows next to the S&P,
and you saw strength in our market, right? You saw things like Celestia, Injective, Caspa,
all trending in 2023. So there's something that I've said here for years now, right, which you can interpret as a signal or you can interpret it as noise, but history doesn't repeat itself, but it does often rhyme, right?
Ask yourself, am I willing to take the risk?
Am I willing to put myself out there?
Or do I just want to wait and see if times come, right?
And that's the thing with this market, right?
You never know when the next signal is going to come.
And when you see it, you just have to act on it, right?
So when you see consensus being,
all right, I'm just going to buy the bottom Q4, right?
I'm going to buy, my best opportunity is going to be in Q4.
I think that's the stupidest thing that you can do, honestly,
because look at what happened last year.
Everyone wanted to wait until,
everyone wanted to wait to sell their alts in Q4. That's the deal. Everyone wanted to wait until everyone wanted to wait to sell their alts in q4 that that's that's
the deal everyone wanted to wait until q4 when in reality the best time to sell if you're in crypto
right i'm not talking about if you were in stratify i'm talking about if you were in crypto because
stratify has still been in a bull market i don't care what anybody says if you've been active in
stratify there's still been a ton of names that you could have played since october over these last five months but if you were in crypto specifically the best time to
sell majority if you didn't want to play pvp on chain would have been in like august when bd hit
125 just below 125 and you had eth peak out and then you had SOL starting to peak at like 240, 250.
That would have been your best time if you did not want to play PvP, right?
Essentially, once you started to see PUMP, right, the PUMP Fun Token go into Price Discovery,
which was right around like August, early September, that would have been it, right?
So broadly, the breadth topped out a few months before BTC shat the bed right so I think
that's kind of where we're at right now I think the market for the most part is just going to be
floored out way before people expect and that's unless something crypto specific happens like I
I do want to point that out right like if a sailor dumps on the market or a dat dumps on the market or a crypto company goes bust,
then of course we're susceptible to it. And I still wouldn't rule out like, you know,
a test of 58K and 55, right? And if it does big deal, right? You're not really,
to 58k and 55 right and if it does big deal right you're not really you're not really having that
huge move that many are expecting similar to when 3ac got blown out right in 2022 people died
that's the thing people flat out just got crushed um everyone got crushed if you were working in crypto you probably lost your job um when you
have that domino effect of luna collapsing and the biggest hedge funds collapsing that goes all the
way down from icos all the way uh to startups um to coins right that wanted a TGE and they lost all their runway because it was all tied up in
tokens that they borrowed against. And that capital that they borrowed against, they used
it to buy their shitcoin. And so it's like this huge loop of leverage. And although I don't really
think we went through that crypto specifically.
It would be more of a TradFi thing as in TradFi, you do have that leverage.
In TradFi, there's always bust every decade, two decades.
But I think we front run that through SVB and silvergate and some of these other vc banks i
think that was like our moment that if things were going to shit the bed it would have been at that
time and i think if you weren't there um i'm sure people can tell you like for a moment people thought it was all over right um you had tether dpeg and usd dpeg
by 10 to 20 and i had i remember i was talking to people that um were working in defy thinking that
all right i'm gonna be out of a job it's actually over and what did people do they all bought
bitcoin that was the flight to safety.
People just bought Bitcoin in mass. And I think when people want to talk about Bitcoin being a
hedge against uncertainty and war and all that stuff, I would agree with them.
We saw it happen a few years ago when all those banks went under.
We saw it happen a few years ago, right? When all those banks went under,
We had stablecoins, DPEGs for multiple days, mind you.
It wasn't like Tether and USDC and some of these other stables DPEG for 15 minutes or 30 minutes.
This happened for multiple days.
What did people do?
They bought Bitcoin.
I remember Bitcoin had like 35%.
It was amazing.
And essentially, Bitcoin had a 50% rally within like a week.
And you had Binance buy a billion in BTC and you had essentially a bunch of these DeFi projects essentially saying like,
you know, this is basically our version of 9-11. And eventually everything came back and
it was all fine and dandy. But I think if anything catastrophic was going to happen like the 2008 or 1987 or something like that it would have been
march of 2023 and now i i i don't want to be one of these geo geopolitical experts because that's
something that's sort of been a meme um in in some of these crypto spaces over the last month
where instead of talking about markets they just talk about wars and what could happen with a ceasefire and all that stuff instead of talking about how to make money.
And with this show, that's kind of what my intention is. I want to talk alpha. I want to talk money. I want to talk trades.
I want to talk money. I want to talk trades. And if you've been tuning into the show since the start of the year, then, you know, we've caught energy with Exxon and Micron and Sandisk, Energy AI. We caught all of that. Hyperliquid as well. We had some guy here talk about Tao two weeks ago and talking subnets. So whether it's myself or some of the other people on the panel, you've made money on
the show.
Even though we have had some entertainment, we've had some crazy moments here on the show,
the main focus is market talk, right?
We talk markets here on the show, whether it's crypto, whether it's TradFi, we talk
everything on here.
So I don't really want to go on a tangent
about geopolitical stuff when it comes to war. But quite frankly, if World War III were to
actually happen, if boots are on the ground, I would probably make a bet that BTC would probably be roaring to new all-time highs within like 30 days of that happening,
30 to 60 days of that happening.
And this is a recorded space, so if this actually does happen, I'll put my personal rep on the line.
I do think BTC would fulfill that narrative where if all of this uncertainty comes and people don't know where to park their money, I think people would probably buy Bitcoin and gold.
So we'll see what happens.
I think Trump is going to taco.
It's kind of been this on and off taco
for a while but uh ai guy grant what's going on fellas um i'm gonna send you guys invites to speak
if uh if you guys want to come on up but um i can't really talk much i'll just mention what happened
uh on friday so basically i had my wisdom tooth i was eating chicken wings so so check this out
bro i was it was the day i was gonna go to the dentist right and i was eating chicken wings and then I ate a flat right so it's not a drum it was a flat
and I bit this fucker sideways and then I chipped my wisdom tooth and then I'm like fuck hell this
is horrible right um I was in pain but I didn't really bitch about it and uh on my way there i was just bleeding and bleeding i'm
like all right i i gotta cancel the stream and so anyways i get there and then it turns out that
my cordial nerve was exposed right so for those that don't don't know what the cordial nerve is
it's basically a nerve that's responsible for your jaw,
and it goes all the way from your temple to your ear to your brain
and then all the way down to your neck to your spine.
And when they did the x-ray on me, this nerve was moving.
So during any point of my procedure, that nerve could have been struck. And should it have been struck,
there was a multitude of possibilities. Either I was going to have paralysis on the right side
of my body. That was like the worst possible. And then at the very least, I wouldn't feel
the right side of my face and I would lose a lot of the
motor function in my jaw and if I did not have this procedure the nerve would
have essentially been infected and I would start want to go through that because I take pride in my jaw.
So I did what had to be done and it was a multi-hour procedure.
And then eventually I had to go to like the emergency care
because I was in so much pain and I stayed there for a few days.
I got out on Monday. I started to feel a lot better.
I guess shout out to the medical system.
What they gave me actually worked.
I feel somewhat okay, but I look like a Minecraft character right now.
My face is like a block and i can talk even though i'm insane i
can still i can still speak but i think the worst part of it is is i i can't lift um not able to
lift until like friday saturday so that's that that's what i was thinking really when i was going through this procedure and when i tell
you man this guy was like a mechanic like he got his and it was like a horror movie man i started
shaking and this guy he got his tools and he was cranking dude like he he was pushing against the, the, like the, the, the, the surgery table and he had the other guy hold onto it. So everything would stay in the place. This guy is just cranking and cranking and cranking and drilling and drilling and drilling.
drilling and i'm just like man am i gonna be able to to work out after this you know even though i'm
doped up on all this anesthesia and it feels like a fever dream man i'm thinking about lifting um
but anyways uh it's been great to give this uh like i guess monologue as an intro to the show it's it's uh good to be back with all of you
so um i see i do have a few requests to come up and and yap and all that stuff uh so this is
another call if anyone here in the audience wants to come up and yap um i'll send you an invite to speak. Snorlax, if you want to come.
Grant, AI guy, if you want to come as well.
Zach, Humphreys, if you want to come up as well, invite to speak.
Doms, invite to speak.
Keck, invite to speak.
Mitch, Stevenson, invite to speak.
Mar, invite to speak Mitch Stevenson invite to speak Mar invite to speak so I've sent some of you guys invitations to speak if you guys want to come on up please don't break my heart um and thank you
to all of you who sent like nice messages and all that stuff while I was out um Jesus is great
and I've been given grace so I'm gonna go ahead and uh bring some of you guys up
that have requested and uh yeah we'll get the show on the road guys spaces are recorded as always
um okay so here's what we're going to do, right?
Just, uh, I guess let everyone, um, speak their piece.
I'm going to pass it over to David and then I'm going to pass it over to Josh and then,
um, bring some of the other, uh, people up.
So David, how are you, man?
It's been a while.
All right.
How was your weekend?
Can you hear me?
Yeah. Yeah. What's you, man? It's been a while. How was your weekend? Can you hear me? Yeah, yeah. What's up, man?
Oh, I'm recovering from my trip to Miami.
What?
They canceled my direct flight and gave me a connecting flight.
I never recovered.
I've been exhausted ever since.
Yeah, I don't like flying.
I really don't like flying at all. I think the worst flight I the country should all just be labeled Texas.
You know, like Kansas, Oklahoma.
It's all the same thing to me.
Missouri, Colorado.
It's just like a bunch of trees with some old buildings.
That's really all it is, honestly, man.
But I understand.
Flights are terrible.
I got up at the crack of zero so I could be there early, but then I didn't get there until night.
It was like, who wants to spend a whole day in the airport?
Anyway, that's yesterday's news.
So for those of you who are fortunate enough not to be old, you don't know what it was like in the 80s and the 70s.
And I'm hearing so much nonsense in the news.
I figured I'd come on your show.
This idea that oil is inflationary
in a world of AI with no job security
is one of the great delusions of all time.
And you can see it in prices.
The 10-year, 20-year forward,
which is the difference between the 10-year yield
and the 30-year yield, has fallen 40 basis points.
Essentially, long-term inflation expectations are in prepal.
And when you think about Omani oil, oil that goes to Asia, the natural gas, they're paying $20, we're paying $3.
It's $170 for Omani oil, and it's $80, $90 for U.S. oil.
And America is going to have such an economic advantage.
Let these people fight over the Straits of Hormuz.
Venezuela is going to have an explosion in energy supply.
Canada, they're talking about renewing the Keystone XL pipeline
that Biden canceled on his first day, costing 10,000 welder jobs.
So for all the people that are, you know, clutching their pearls, this is great for
America.
People who are saying Trump is losing, it's just Trump derangement syndrome.
We have set back that whole crew for a long long
time and
everyone's saying Trump will reverse
course because
of oil prices
or XYZ
Trump is going
to give them a chance
ooh is this a spot
that would be so
oh wow this is so clutch I have a spot? That would be so, oh, wow, this is so clutch.
I have a spot good till Friday.
I'm moving at the end of the week, and I'm getting a parking space in my new parking.
Anyway, so you're having long-term yields accelerate, and that's the point.
It's accelerating versus short-term rates.
The notional rate isn't what's important. It's the relative rate. And that's the point. It's accelerating versus short-term rates. The notional rate isn't what's important. It's the relative rate. And we all know on February 25th, the day before
they closed the month, February 26th, for trading, that was when Druckenmiller recorded his piece that he's short the dollar, he's short the bond, he's long Japan, he's long Korea, he's long Brazil.
His book is exactly where you're going to want to be.
He's in the exact same position when he lost $3 billion after the dot-com peak in 2000,
when he admits he learned nothing from that.
He knew he shouldn't have done it.
And this is the same exact thing.
You have to understand the difference between emerging markets and Microsoft
is just a leverage.
It's just duration.
It's just length.
Microsoft cannot find a bid.
Microsoft's down $175.
And people want to buy garbage piles. They want to buy a steel company in Brazil. They want to buy these people in Asia will run out of, forget the price. They're going to run out of energy.
You know, the COVID lockdown and the learning remotely
we're bringing all that
back to Asia they don't have the fuel
planes are getting
mothballed
the world is going to slow down
and it is going to be the greatest
revenge for Main Street
that has ever happened
and for every clown and their clown cousin
thinking that Trump is... I listen to Malcolm Nance
being interviewed by Mario Newfall.
The guy has TDS to the power of TDS.
He's saying America is getting slaughtered. Iran is winning
big time. That Iran is winning big time,
that Iran is going to take over Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, they're going to get a thousand guys.
The guy is so deluded.
He's writing a Tom Clancy novel.
The fact is the American military has dramatically exposed the weakness of Iran and the lie that they would never attack Europe with that Diego Garcia thing.
So let's try to look at prices.
Remember, supposedly a negotiation towards an end is happening happening whether it is or isn't the point
why is the curve spending 10 days below the 200 day moving average for the 210 which is an extremely
potent highly correlated curve with the financials which are the second largest sector. And as they flatten, that will help bring down the S&P
to the next level, triggering a gamma expression,
meaning the dealers who are short is very low volatility.
They'll be forced to sell
on the way down because they have the negative gamma position.
And then how about the treasury market?
I mean, what is better trade than short bond volatility in a slowing world
and buying NASDAQ volatility?
VXN divided by, you know, VXTLT.
It's just you have to ignore prices to not notice what's going on look at today's action
meta i mean microsoft um apple google no it's microsoft google apple and meta because
um they're all either down or less than a percent.
How much is that?
It's $12 trillion?
$12 trillion coming under distribution?
That money is going into treasury,
it's going into mortgage volatility.
I don't see how anyone could think that Bitcoin is actually going to be going up in this.
You saw gold go down as oil went up.
What was that about?
There's not enough money to buy them both.
So if you wanted to buy gold, you had to sell gold and silver and copper.
and copper.
And what was some of the manifestations?
And what was some of the manifestations?
If you wanted to buy oil
volatility, you had to fund that
by shorting gold
and silver volatility, which
drags down gold and silver
and copper and aluminum.
And you get
a little relief from oil and the gold gets
all bounced from $4,100
down from $5,500.
Watch the prices and talk your stories, folks.
Watch the prices and hide the fiction.
Save your bags for an opportunity of a price going up, not a price that you wish was going up.
not a price that you wish was going up.
Microsoft, the largest customer of NVIDIA,
can't find a bid.
Google sells 20 billion of century paper.
That is Oracle 2.0.
I said the day they parked that paper, forget it.
Just announcing the paper, forget it. it's giving people an opportunity to short
google against something remember it wasn't long ago after the judge decided they're not going to
break up google everyone had to cover their shorts and they went bananas if they were taking the
money out of the stuff well what happened open ai they said we're going to take ads we're going to
take that was the original reason why Google went down.
They forgot about that.
OpenAI doesn't have the money.
They need to take ads.
I listened to their CFO yesterday.
So what I'm looking at is prices.
I'm looking at a curve, a 20-year treasury, 10 years in the future.
It's flattening rapidly, and all these curves are under the 200-day moving average.
You all know nothing
good happens under the 200-day moving average.
Now we're close to death crosses in a bunch of these curves.
You're talking about one-year lows on a lot of these curves.
You're talking about people who paid a lot of money to belong the volatility on a steepener, and that's gone bad.
We were 73.2.
Remember, we were at minus 109 and change when Powell in 2023 started with this mega dove in front of the election to help the last administration.
He's called a Republican. He hates Trump. Trump is against the system. He hates him. So the guy
has been doing nothing but easing and steepening and easing and steepening. And now what's left?
Rates are so low, they're already doing a half trillion a QE, however you want to describe it, QE Lite. They went from a trillion QT, a trillion and a half less of that net. They're buying 2 billion a day. Plus, you're rolling off last month, it was 13 billion of mortgages. So that's like 600 million a day. Also, it's like 2.6 billion a day they're buying on the short end.
a day. Also, it's like $2.6
billion a day they're buying on the short
end.
The curve is flattening, folks.
Whether it's 10.30,
2.10, that's the eight years,
two years forward.
These things are melting.
You'd think if they ended the war
tomorrow, you'd be able to get enough
oil to where it needs to go in time
to stop the disaster
known as India, all-time low currency, Indonesia.
You'd be shocked to realize that
Nigeria and Naira is super sloppy, and they're
a big oil export. You've got
Bangladesh. You've got Egypt and Pakistan.
They're going to have to devalue
2.5 trillion
6 trillion
whatever number you want to use
these people have a real hard time
and the American economy
not services but
it's just growing
money is going to come into America
for our energy industry
it's going to explode
would you ever go to Bangladesh I am How much money is going to come into America for our energy industry? It's going to explode.
Would you ever go to Bangladesh?
It's very crowded.
I would never go to Bangladesh. It's very crowded.
Yeah, it's like a prisoner tour.
We had a guy who was worth a billion dollars and went to jail for insider trading for Bangladesh.
I forget his name, but it was a couple of years ago.
And to conclude, you could imagine or you can wish, but you can't will into existence,
that an immediate suspension of this would unwind the problems that are inevitable,
which would have happened anyway.
Because there's only a limit to how much more they can cut before people start buying treasuries,
driving down the volatility in treasuries, which accelerates NASDAQ all versus treasury.
And then you start getting an event.
But when you have 12 trillion of NASDAQ just soggy, People are hiding in emerging markets. You've got to be
kidding me. I was listening to the guy from Hood saying, not Hood's milk products in Boston,
but Robin Hood. Their AUM is suffering. People lost a lot of money in Bitcoin
what do you think is going to happen
as the curve flattens
the XLF goes down
it pressures the S&P
it takes the S&P into a 10% correction
and starts to bring down the Palantirs
and these other things
Palantir has a little extra lift
because of the war stories
but Roblox, Apple
all these other stuff
you had Dan Ives screaming of the war stories, but Roblox, Apple, all these other stuff.
You had Dan Ives screaming, you're going to buy the CrowdStrike and what was the other one?
Palo Alto.
You're going to buy them.
We don't know what's going to be the future with clarity.
We don't know what's going to be the future with clarity.
What we do know is these companies are using a lot of their cash flow.
So Microsoft, all this cash flow was going into buying short-term treasuries.
They're not.
14-year positioning negative on the dollar, the dollar's melting up.
It's above the 50-year trend line.
We're about to get a 12-year crossover of the 50-year.
That's two generations, folks.
That's not a presidential.
That's two generations, not two presidential terms.
So we're going to lose liquidity in so many places.
It's observable on these curves.
People just don't believe it's possible, even though it's happening in front of their eyes.
And as you take this dollar higher and you take it to a one-year high or a 10-and-a-half-month high, which can then become one-month high, we're going to anniversary all of those April 8th prices.
Remember, I covered a Bitcoin show on April 7th
at 429. But all of these equity prices that were masking the new lows because you're not below the
level on April 8th, before you know it, we're going to be seeing an ocean of tech on the 52-week
low. And that's going to bring more and more selling pressure and that's going to just cause more and more decay of equity which
leverages up the system creating involuntary leverage so you can ignore
the shapes of the curves what that means for the financials and what Microsoft
and Google and meta are telling you But there are real opportunities to move into things that are doing better than other things.
And it would be a mistake to think, oh, we're just going back to what worked for the last 23 years, 24 years,
just because you wish that was the case.
Try to go on things that are working.
Anyway, I returned platform to you.
Anyway, I return platform to you.
So, David, before I pass the mic over to Josh,
what are you positioned in?
You don't have to say.
I'm very clear what I like.
My favorite thing on earth,
hopefully my fund starts this week or next week,
the paperwork's in.
My first big buy is the 6% Fannie Mae coupon. That's trading at not far
from 102. It earns 6%. The assets are guaranteed. There's no credit risk. There's government
guarantees. You go bankrupt, the mortgage investor gets the 100 cents on the dollar.
But if you expect rates to go down, then you're basically buying a treasury with a short call against it.
That's kind of what a mortgage is.
So I love the sixes.
So I'd buy, you know, on a million dollar, well, you got to buy a million dollar minimums, but I'd buy that, I'd buy 20% of that, I'd buy the 2% coupon, then I'd buy 25% of that, I'd buy the notional 29-year treasury strip, and I would be shorting put spreads on the leaders like Walmart, Costco, NextEra, Lilly, the retailers, TJ Maxx, Ross Doors, Burlington, and I'd be shorting call spreads against everyone of FANG, Bank
America, JP Morgan, Berkshire Hathaway, and Bank America.
Bank America has the worst start, in my opinion, of the big four banks.
When they bought back, when they sold the discounted mortgages that they had issued
during COVID, I just don't understand how there was any logic to do what they thought it was.
Anyway, so I am against comm, I'm against tech, I'm against comm, I'm against financials.
I would start putting call spreads small against the SanDisk, maybe a Lite, L-I-T-E.
Not advice, folks, but that thing's up 2,000% this year.
I mean, these are like the altcoins, right?
When Bitcoin came down, before that, strategy came from November 21, 2024, 543.
It fell 80%. They're up to 765, 68,000 coins or whatever.
Their average price is 75.
They're underwater on their coin.
Plus, they have all this debt.
And the preferred stock, it's such a mess for them and so you have
bitcoin volatility sliding the complement of adding bitcoin and its volatility kind of times a thousand
it's like 122 is that weakens the lowest 126 it's kind of like conjugate you can't have you know
price and momentum like in heisenberg if If you see falling volatility, it could temporarily lift the price of Bitcoin.
But it's only a matter of time before, as volatility falls, people will say, you know what, let me buy some cheap protection.
And you'll just push the big ground.
David, you're in your 70s, right?
No, no, I'm in 60s.
David, how is it that you stay looking so young, man?
On my nightmare marathon, I drink a lot of H2O combined with Crystal Light or the Lidl knockoff brand.
I think people really underestimate how difficult it is to maintain yourself after the age of like i would say after the age
of like 25 a lot of people literally break down in between like 25 to 45 they break down by a huge
amount and then by the time they're in their 50s they look they look terrible um i know i'll tell you one thing in my entire life combined
i've had less than a case of whiskey and a case of beer over my entire life i i i think there's
some alpha in that man um i think the most i've ever done is like a shot of gray goose and like five sips of beer and i also had a dad i think
it was a daiquiri it was like this like blueberry watermelon kind of oh sounds delicious but i was
i was this was like in this was like october of 2024 i was with a girl and she had um
she had like this blueberry watermelon drink and i had and i had
like three sips and i'm pretty sure it was mostly juice with very minimal alcohol a splash and i've
never been a smoker um i think i've only taken i've only taken like two puffs of a cigarette and that was when I was like 15 and it was horrible
nor do I do marijuana or uh or the edibles yeah yeah I've never taken an edible but
um I used to smoke in like high school when I first started lifting and then I had like
I had the worst trip ever David I was in my bathtub and I I I'm not kidding you I had like, I had the worst trip ever, David. I was in my bathtub and I, I, I'm not kidding you.
I had a vision of like a pink dragon.
You ever seen the movie Shrek?
Yes.
Yeah.
I literally saw that thing and it was like smiling at me and I'm like, dude, I'm never doing this again, man.
My grandmother was born in 1893 and lived 99 to three quarter years.
Her son, my uncle, went 105 years and five weeks and would have gone 110 if it wasn't for denying him the COVID vaccine while he was in a facility where he had COVID risk.
But it's in the family.
It's in the family.
My father had dark hair until the 70s.
That's impressive.
Let's just talk about the break into a T-Tick.
I think Hems Talk is going to do pretty well over the next few years, man.
Hems?
Yeah, I think that's...
The guy's cursed.
Do you know what he said?
What did he say?
In the middle of the protest in Columbia University, where they were roughing up Jews, they were breaking in buildings,
they were denying Jewish students access to the campus, and the professor, the head of him said,
anyone who's arrested supporting Hamas, come to me and
I'll give you a job.
And that was when the stock was near above 50.
Oh, wow.
I think the trend is going to be up and to the right is like looks maxing and all that
stuff.
What is it, 20 now?
Is it 20? is it 20 yeah yeah
yeah i i think i think i'm gonna get some if it goes into the teens um i think for a counter trend
or do you think new buy because i i think there was a shortage of these products they were able
to compound and even though they made a deal the deal was so that we don't bankrupt you. What business do they have? I think in 2027 it'll be probably something like a Robin Hood.
And I say that because I think during the elections, like when you have like whatever Republican or Democratic nominee,
I think there's going to be a young person in there, a younger person, whether it's Gavin Newsom or somebody else.
And I think there's going to be a huge shift in where people are going to look to elect leaders that actually take care of themselves and that are actual chads.
So why them?
Well, no, I'm just giving an example.
I'm not saying them specifically,
but I'm saying like,
I think the old guard,
like the same people that we've been seeing for decades,
being involved in politics,
I think there's going to be...
Oh, they got to go.
Yeah, yeah.
I think there's just going to be a shift in everything, right?
And... I mean, but did you see Merck today? They bought to be a shift in everything, right?
But did you see Merck today?
They bought someone for a lot of money, and they ended up up on the day?
No, I didn't see that at all, man.
I'm just catching up with Marcus over the last 24 hours. I've just been catching up on my stuff.
Wasn't really able to do much it just seemed like a big fever
dream honestly um i think like when someone has a procedure done it's not really the procedure
itself the recovery yeah it's all the stuff you have to take so you don't feel like dying
um and then that puts you in a state where like a gallon of water feels heavy.
But the good thing is that like it's like for the most part, like that initial hurdle of the first three days, like you live.
That's yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah. But when you do a takeover and then your stock goes up, that's a very good sign.
Oh, I see.
I see.
Josh, what are you saying, bro?
Welcome, man.
Welcome back.
Feel free to give your thoughts, man.
Where are you positioned?
Hey, I don't think you're speaking right now yeah i'm gonna pass it over to mitch
yeah i'll pass it over to mitch mitch what's up bro how are you bobby what's up bro
glad you're back man i was worried about you yeah it was honestly hell dude like this guy
was literally cranking on my mouth oh god that probably sounded
wrong but like dude this guy like the tools when i saw the tools bro i'm like yo this looks like a
saw movie man and like when he injected me with the anesthesia because i i had the option right
because whatever you just have the option to either go full anesthesia uh we're not like
awake or local and i know myself like like at full anesthesia anesthesia just does not work on me i'm
gonna feel it because i'm so like hypersensitive with my six senses and all that stuff and this
guy he got a tool it looked like a fucking wrench dude and he
was twisting his body and like i felt the pressure on my jaw and i'm like dude if i end up being
chopped i'm going to be so mad because even though i'm a big guy i still have a jaw like i still have
a chiseled jaw right i've got dents because I bone smash. I'm not even kidding. I bone smash and it works.
And yeah, thankfully, they didn't really mess up anything. So that's scary, bro. I'm glad you're
okay. So I've got a couple of important questions for you. So the first thing, is this a specific
wing place that caused this problem? And will you be going back there was this a
national chain or a local chain or where was this i need to know if it's wing stop i gotta make a
change oh so this is what happened so i i i went to wing stop and it sucked i i despise wing stop
it's probably worse than arby's um yeah and one of our guys tucker he loves arby's. Yeah, and one of our guys, Tucker, he loves Arby's, man.
He took me to Arby's this one time, dude, when he was in Miami.
It was the worst thing ever.
I regret it.
It's one of the biggest regrets of my entire life outside of going to Kansas City, Missouri.
But so it sucked again.
And then I ended up going to the supermarket and i made my own wings
uh which i do a lot and then um okay so what's the flavor i mean so what's your go-to what do
you know no so it was it was my fault like i had a flat right i had a flat and then um
you know what people do like they get the flat and then they grind it
against their teeth um you know that trick that trick right it comes off of the bone well i did
that right and i bid on it and then um i felt like a deep crunch i'm like oh fucking hell and
then i tasted that cop recently. I
didn't really think anything of it. And I was on my, I was going to go to the dentist either way.
Like that day I had an appointment. It was just like a, like a regular, like a regular checkup.
Right. Cause I had some issues in the past. Um, and, um, anyways, I'm like, yo, this ended up happening to me.
Like, you know, that's just, it's, it's one of those things where it's like a normal day
and then something happens and you don't really think much of it.
And it's like, nah, I could have actually turned into an infection.
And they showed me the x-ray and the nerve was actually moving.
That's the thing.
And when you have an
exposed nerve that's moving during at any point in the surgery something could have happened
so uh yeah yeah that's scary bro it was man it really it really wasn't i a lot of things into perspective. And yeah, I know there's a lot
of people that say, oh, I can't wait for Bitcoin and go to 300,000, 200,000. Or myself, right? Oh,
I can't wait for Hyperliquid to trade at 300, 400. I can't wait for Solana to go to 1,000 or
whatever it may be, and it's like who's
to say that you're gonna live to see that day as dark as it is um so it's like you have to
take it day by day i think the last time i felt like this bro was when i got sick with covid
that was like july of 2020 and uh i got so sick that i needed um i needed someone to like
take care of me like actual be like my caretaker it was actually pretty damn bad uh but anyways
hey speaking of alls um so i'm in on hype because of you.
I sort of consider you like an altcoin expert.
I'm not an expert, man.
It seems that way from an outsider, from someone who doesn't know shit, right?
And so what are your thoughts on like Clonch, something like that, that's AI driven?
I mean, I'd love, it's fairly new.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on that one. Are talking about clonch the altcoin yeah isn't it down like 90 percent it's down a lot
absolutely it's down a lot yeah is it dead is it over i mean it's kind of difficult man because
like i remember in january um i called out gastown a few of us talked about gastown it was like three to five mil chill was
up here as well and then it went from like three mil to like 70 ralph wiggum actually went crazy
as well and then it's like all right like what do you do after this right it's a it's above that
usual threshold of a soul shitter which is usually between 30 to 40 mil which is where most lana
coins die out um and then you make your decision based off of that and i mean it had everything
going for it right um back in january you had that like little echo bubble of ai between like
october to january you had that little echo bubble it didn't really work out
to January you had that little echo bubble it didn't really work out and then you had like
those bass hitters um moltbook was one that kind of came out of nowhere and now you have uh
let me see let me see I have it on I have it on my watch list uh captcha yeah captcha um so you you had like a whole group
i i try to live on chain as much as possible to get any sort of alpha even during these choppy
market market conditions where on chain kind of is just like meh but you have things like
capture as well and all these projects like or lobster right um i actually do
like lobster for what it's worth but like all these tokens they get shouted out by people that
work at anthropic and open ai and it's there's just no liquidity for it to have that goat moment
right the goat css maximus and if you look i think it's on Dune where you can see like analytics and stuff like that.
The amount of Solana like traders on chain, I think it's on a weekly basis was over 30 million during that time in 2024, early 2025.
And now it's like minus 90% plus.
So you don't really have many people.
And if you've seen the rotation that's happened, a lot of people that made their money in crypto,
they're taking that money and they're going on hyperliquid and they're essentially playing
stocks on the weekend or they've gone over to SanDisk and some of these other names.
And I remember, and I have a call log too.
I called our guy, Edward, right?
And he's an AI guy, right?
He knows some of the people that work, that have worked in these companies since it was
a seed company, right?
company, right? Like open AI and stuff and anthropic, whatever. And basically, like he
Like OpenAI and stuff and Anthropic, whatever.
was saying that a lot of this AI stuff, it's really hard to replicate that in crypto. It's
two different modes. Crypto right now works on extraction. There's no ai flywheel token it's really hard to replicate
revenue um as you do in tradfi when it comes to ai it's just too different so there's a big
possibility that a lot of these guys uh in crypto they just move on over to ai and i mean we've been seeing that happen, right? AI since November has done quite well.
Nibius has done quite well.
Solaris has done quite well.
Sandisk has done tremendous.
So when you look at the move that Sandisk made,
like that is a huge move.
You're talking like $80 billion being added to a company.
And I would assume that's
money that's come from crypto people i'm just assuming so that's how i found sandisk i found
sandisk through uh this cat dude his name is cl whatever it's like i think his pfp is a cat in a yellow hoodie.
Let me see his name.
You didn't even mention VCX. You see this deal over 1,200% in the last week?
It's like access.
You know, it's like you get Anthropic and OpenAI and all of those.
those have you seen this i i haven't man i i have not but i'm sure like there's uh
Have you seen this?
I haven't, man.
I have not.
i'm sure there's um hold on yeah it's his his at is cl207 that's how i found sanders he made a post
about it in like october september um i'm like like this thing looks pretty cool. And, uh, anyways, I'm sure there's always going to be like some pink sheets that add
a ton of money to their market cap and trade in the billions or something like that.
Um, in the stock market, there are companies that trade at like one to three mil market
cap.
It's kind of crazy that's like i i think there's a weird paradox going on
in equities right now um i think the reason why you're seeing some stocks move like that is
because people that have made money in crypto over the last few years or maybe 10 years they
go over to trad fi and they think of it they think about it like the trenches like they actually think
these things can move like all coins and they have and so that's kind of why i'm very bullish on things like robin hood long term um even if some people don't like robin hood i do that's
like something that i've been talking about for years i think it's like one of the few assets that
i'd be comfortable with
holding long term i think you should always have some things that you just trade long term it's
it's easy on your mind and you just erase that from your net worth and you just forget about it
or you have like a constant dc that's like one of my assets of choice even if i go through some
drawdown with whatever but um yeah i I'm not really even willing to buy.
For sure.
I'll leave you with this, man.
I'm extremely bullish on AI, extremely bullish on AI data centers.
We're at the very beginning of that, in my opinion.
I think this VCX giving you access to companies that haven't gone public yet, Anthropic,
OpenAI, I think that run-up shows you what the demand is for that.
Personally, I want to bet on the picks and shovels.
You mentioned Nubius, but I like Iron.
You saw Cypher announce the deal today.
There's only more of that coming.
The demand is not slowing down.
The more efficient that all of these hardware systems get,
the more demand that'll be created.
I'll let Josh get to it.
Glad you're back.
Glad you're all right, Wabi.
Appreciate you.
Are you talking about vicinity centers?
Is that the ETF that you're talking about, Mitch?
I think Mitch is off now.
Fundrise Innovation.
Okay, okay.
All right, let me...
Fundrise Innovation Fund.
Let's see this thing, man.
Oh, I can get it on for that.
Yeah, you're good, man.
You're good.
I'm going to look into that, Mitch.
Thanks, man.
I always try to seek alpha
and in multiple sectors like i think if if you're just focused on all coins man whether it's on
chain or majors and you're just focused on that i think you're doing yourself a disservice
in other places where you could make um more money to either the long or the short side
make more money to either the long or the short side.
I think that's the beauty of this administration,
where another bull market is ending,
another one is starting.
So, yeah.
Josh, what's up? You want me to take off no you're good yeah yeah what's up man all right yeah i think i tried talking earlier but i was getting like rogged back and forth you know how it is yeah
yeah um yeah i thought you were in a supermarket or something yeah i was i think it was just because
i was going in and out of the office between wi-fis but it's all good they'll get they'll
get twitter spaces will get good one day they'll start caring about us hopefully in the future.
But dude, so much alpha.
I mean, already just from just sitting here
for the last 30, 40 minutes,
just listening to everything from David,
even your thoughts on just like the altcoin markets
and just kind of the directions we're heading.
I think what I can touch on a little bit,
I think which might be good for a lot of the more,
I would say retail crowd focused of our audience
that isn't going to be super into the bonds
and more of the in-depth, I call traditional mindsets from from people like David I think what
I'm looking for right now I mean it's very simple is I I do agree with David on the
Stephen Miller side of this is just like waiting for an asymmetrical trade there's there's so much
uncertainty in the markets right now there's definitely clear winners. But if you're looking at the long end of this, for me, it's like, what's going to be the outcome
of the Iran war? And to me, that's going to be part of the energy sector. I'm dropping off some
people right now, so they should be good. But looking at Bitcoin, I want to touch on that a
little bit more. It's just the current market conditions right now for Bitcoin is it's just going to be
volatile based off of anything with inflation. And so if we get anything from the feds coming
out saying anything regarding uncertainty or potentially the feds governor talking about
raising interest rates, I don't think it's going to happen. I agree with a lot of the panel in
terms of I think a lot of the media is heavily TDS. This war is still going to take weeks,
if not months. And, you know, there's expectations that this can be prolonged for a lot longer than
any of us expect. And I haven't seen necessarily any great directions. I don't think I have a
strong enough opinion. I just based off the fact that I don't think any of us have enough data to
say what's this extension look like. I'm not a geopolitical analyst either, so I'm not going to sit here and pretend that I know or have sources connected to the IRGC or Iraq or other proxies that are escalating these war conditions potentially.
But what I am looking at is just, again, the outcome of this.
And one of the biggest things is going to be where this places the United States in terms of the world stage of competition for both energy and trade.
So my focus here into the next few months is right now I've been doing nothing but using Claude.
I think everybody should be using OpenClaw and Claude and just building products.
I am maxing out my credits every single day.
I've built probably five to six different products that either work or semi work or in production that I'm just using for testing.
And ultimately just building things that better myself with my in production that I'm just using for testing. And ultimately, just building things
that better myself with my own agents.
I'm building SEO agents.
I'm building AI agents that help me
with just running my day-to-day business with media,
with the script writing, with production,
with video editing, with everything.
And that is such, that is to me,
the biggest asymmetric trade right now
is if you have a few hundred dollars per month,
like I am maxing out those credits. Because even if you waste that couple hundred bucks and build
something that's shit you're still learning exponentially from utilizing those products
and i think you're going to be so much farther ahead of any competition when these do markets
do flatten out or do have a very clear winner which in my opinion it's already starting to
become abundantly clear it's going to be the energy. If you just watch GTC with Jensen and you're watching all these
different interviews with him, Anthropic and Dural, I mean, obviously defense contractors,
which are going to be primarily private, you're not going to get access to that on the Golden
Dome side, but we're going to be investing heavily in the missile manufacturing and weapon
defense systems within the United States. You have the energy side, which of course,
Elon and even NASA,
if you guys watched NASA's release here,
they're talking about not only building a moon base,
but developing nuclear propulsion systems to send us to Mars,
all within the next five to six years.
And so to have all of those, to hit all those expectations,
we're going to need more energy than ever to produce more,
or just more kilowatts.
We need terawatts.
We need petrowatts.
We need so much energy to produce the amount of AI and intelligence systems that we want to create.
That is what's going to decide the GDP of any given country.
That's what every single CEO is talking on the tech side.
So for me right now, it's just I think all I can really touch on more than anything else that you guys have already covered is, you know, I don't think people need to be focusing on having to make a trade right now.
I think if you're following any of the traditional markets, the smart people, the cash, like
the people sitting on a ton of cash, like Drunken Miller, is, you know, going to be
just wait for the clearly obvious position.
You can hedge yourself right now.
Make sure you're taking very, very low risks, you know, stuff that
like, for example, oil, you can hedge yourself with oil.
And it's like, yeah, worst case, it drops a little bit and you get out of a position.
But the, you know, well, I guess that's technically the best case.
Worst case is, you know, oil shoots up to $150 because Iran decides to, you know, actually
continue to close the straight-up or moves.
And you have other proxy groups like Hezbollah, etc.
that decide to shut down the Baba or whatever the other canal is to the south of Saudi Arabia.
So, you know, if you're hedging, I think that's a great position.
I think if you're just a retailer, like start building products.
That is my favorite trade right now is just studying those markets and building legitimate products and then ultimately just paying attention to where energy is heading because energy, in my opinion, is quite clearly the best trades
to be made coming up here probably towards midterms
after hopefully this war settles down.
I think that's going to be one of the biggest plays here.
But that's really what I got.
I don't know what else to touch on that.
Yeah, that's why I like Solaris, man, for an energy play.
It also plays into AI.
Dude, did you see how Sora is going to be gone now?
OpenAI just wasted – OpenAI wasted like 40 billion of their runway on a video service that was like super hot when it came out in October, dude.
Everybody was using Sora AI.
And it was a lot better too.
The quality was insane and then
it just turned into a bunch of slop what are your thoughts on that dude like yeah i mean personally
i think sam altman's a huge larper you know i i don't think he's not intelligent that's not what
i'm saying i think open the ads positions for really huge government contracts. But, I mean, you're competing against Elon and people that are going to just outperform you.
I think you're looking at a platform that is being absorbed through Grok AI.
Social media companies, I think you're going to see that AI embedded into a lot of these social media websites.
And so it's like it's hot for a second, but then all of a sudden that's going to be a feature that's on Instagram.
It's going to be a feature that's on X. It's going to be a feature that's on YouTube.'s going to be a feature that's on x can be a feature that's on youtube and i think that's where the burden came
was chat gpt doesn't have a social interface you saw early on sam altman making jokes about
how he's interested in uh you know buying twitter from elon musk or x from elon musk
and i think he's kind of just like the little brother that is never going to topple his big
brother is is kind of the situation I feel. I think
where OpenAI personally should be positioning themselves is there was a point where they were
very involved with the government and I would have been just doubling or tripling or quadrupling down
on defense contracts and AI contracts and stepping in one office. The Anthropic, like that was a huge
moment for OpenAI. Anthropic stepped back from the Pentagon. It's like, yeah, obviously make that
decision and go all in, pull back on the social media. I don't think Sam Altman has A, what it
takes to build a social media platform and also B, I just don't think he has the personality for
people to want to follow them, especially with everything he's dealt with, with the conspiracies
around, you know, his certain ex-employees and whatnot. So I think it was just, it was a matter
of time. I think their PEs were way too explosive in comparison to other competitors out there and then you just if you use
claude it's like i don't know i just i feel like soar is going to be something that you can build
overnight with zero experience in a couple of weeks just because of open clock
have you uh checked out these subnets from bitensor or not really
yeah i mean bit sensor i've been diving into a lot more i am definitely not like
jumping into the giant green candlesticks anytime jason calcanis is coming out and being like yeah
this thing's gonna go to a 500 billion dollar market cap yeah i think he's like the poster
boy for tell he's the jim Cramer of the all in podcast.
You know what I mean?
So I think, you know, there is a lot of value to it.
And, you know, I don't think he's wrong in the sense, especially with Chamath bringing this up to Jensen.
I thought it was kind of shilly when they did that.
But, you know, teach their own.
But it's more important than ever, especially with what just happened with the Clarity Act.
Politicians, the big banks just completely curb stomped centralized yield companies. If you are looking to offer any
yield positions on your stable coins or your DeFi protocols as a company, you're going to be running
into a lot of legal battles now. It's more important than ever to have these decentralized
AI marketplaces. Are they going to kick off?
What I just bring up is back when I was in Panama in 2022, I went down and interviewed
into the media for Singularity Network before they merged into artificial super intelligence.
And I interviewed everybody from Ocean, everybody from Fetch, everybody from Singularity, Hanson
Robotics.
A lot of these different data engineers, they're all over
the place, that were trying to approach AGI.
And what I just have to say about that is just like, a lot of it feels like they are
trying to do everything in their power to be better than an open AI or to be better than
like NVIDIA or Claude.
And I just don't think that's how these companies position
themselves. So I think BitTensor has put themselves in a good position where I don't see them
attacking all these centralized AI companies. I don't think you're ever going to beat those.
And for that reason, I think there is really decent upside ahead for BitTensor in terms of
its capability. I don't think though, I don't know, maybe I'm completely wrong, but when they're shilling 200Xs, especially in this market, I'm going to definitely be waving some red flags, if that makes sense.
If only Vitalik would be like that for ETH, man.
We got to have these Tradify guys pump the bags and bring awareness.
Yeah, it's like they're scared to right now.
It's definitely, people feel like they're being beat down,
which I don't understand.
If I was Vitalik, I would be doubling down
and getting in rooms with tokenization.
Like all these companies, the big banks,
people need to realize, like, it's not necessarily bad
that they're coming into the industry.
It does, I'm disappointed in the sense that I've been helping with a lot of legislation, especially in Florida.
I was doing work in New York with the mayor of New York before Mom Donnie.
I was at Capitol Hill multiple times.
I'll be in Boston with Club for Growth, which is the largest donor to Trump's company.
And that's all for all for blockchain legislative purposes.
It's definitely disappointing that, you know,
banks are going to get to continue to run their fractional scams
and their Ponzi scams because they print endless money
and create this debt and don't want to give us our interest rate on that.
But at the end of the day, it does bring a clear path.
And so if I was any crypto project right now,
I would not be doing what Charles Hoskinson is doing
and crying about the administration.
Like if I'm a ceo
right i wouldn't be like oh this is this is terrible we're dead begging people to use defi
i'd be like all right i'm gonna go walk into black rocks headquarters and figure out how
can i make it easy for them to tokenize because that is where the transaction value is
it's it's um it's always something when tokenization gets brought up as far as eat they
had uh everything going for them and then they got complacent giving all giving all these grants away
giving all this money away to all these l2s and then hyperliquid came and just stole their lunch, man.
I think that's a trade.
Hype ETH up and to the right.
Hype ETH is the new Soul ETH.
What Soul ETH was, I'm going to call it last cycle, man.
I think it's time we move on from the 2023-2025 cycle.
I'm going to start saying that because that's what it is.
The cycle died after 10-10 and flows were just extremely different.
And the money is going to hyperliquid and it's going to town now.
So I'm going to hyper liquid and it's going to towel now um so I'm gonna call this last cycle
so what we saw last cycle what soul ETH was from 2023 all the way to like I think middle of uh 2025 like up until like q2 of 25. soul eth was up into the right i think it's gonna be
hype eth now um and the thing is man like there is no hyper liquid trenches we had a taste of that
in late 2024 um i'm sure some of our guys can tell you, like Dorito, we played things like Vapor.
That went to almost 200 mil.
There was a launchpad on Hyperliquid last year that also crossed the nine-figure threshold.
I think Per also crossed the nine-figure threshold as well.
And I'm extremely confident there's going to be a billion-dollar runner on Hyperliquid.
And every chain has its Pepe, right?
Even before Pepe was a thing.
Two cycles ago, Avalanche had the Omforks.
ETH had SNX, Synthetetics um and link as well like there's always some like mascot on a chain
that just goes up like crazy and in the 2020 cycle uh eath had defy and avax had their own forks
phantom had boo and all that other stuff with spooky swap that stuff ran up pretty hard as well
spooky swap my gosh andre those were the days bro yeah back when like andre cronia was looked That stuff ran up pretty hard as well. Spooky swap. My gosh, Andre Cronje.
Those were the days, bro.
Yeah, back when Andre Cronje was looked at as a god,
and now he's just an extractor.
He's made like five different projects.
Danny Sessa, Wonderland.
The ghost extractor of the mold, brother.
Man, dude, I'm sure Sullivan is smiling from ear to ear when he
hears me talking about wonderland that was those were great times man avax was great two cycles
ago um but anyways uh every cycle there's always a chain that is is prevalent and they all have their darling. And I think Hyperliquid is probably next.
I think one of them is probably, I don't know how to pronounce it.
It's Kinetic, something like that.
And they're the platform that powers Hyperliquid 24-7 trading with their equities.
And that's predominantly the thesis for Hyperliquid.
It's not perps.
That's the thing.
People think Hyperliquid is just perps.
It's not.
It's like oil.
It's the tokenization of things, right?
It's like the contracts that are launched on Hyperliquid.
It's actual real liquidity.
I know I sound like a shill right now,
but we're in the business of making money we're money shows right so i think what took hyper liquid from two
um to 60 or perps and all that stuff i think what's going to take hyper liquid from call it 20
to like 200 is probably going to be uh-7 stock trading, more things being included.
And even if Hyperliquid makes new lows, whatever takes it to new highs, I think it's going to be new sectors being added onto it.
And eventually, and this is something that I discussed last year, shortly after Hype bottomed out, is hype on chain.
That's what's going to send the token up even more.
It's going to be people saying, well, damn, I've made money this weekend playing perps
on the Dow or on the S&P or on the NASDAQ.
And I just bought like a 30x long and I just made like 80% with size.
And then you start seeing all this volume come in on Hyperliquid and you see shitters pop up left and right.
I'm going to go ahead and gamble on Shane here on Hyperliquid.
So it's like an infinite casino. The thesis hyper liquid is the infinite casino not only for perps uh on a bunch of assets but also on chain and i think solana being down and to the left
basically i think solana is like stagflation right now bro like there's just
there's too much stuff ahead of it to actually get ahead there's so much token supply ahead of it
there is a lot more headwinds for solana in comparison to hyper liquid so i think like the
passing of the torch is happening slowly and also like kyle samani stepping down from his fund
this crypto fund is is is even bigger signal um you're the first person ever i completely agree
yeah yeah yeah like you have all the solana people kind of it's like if um if joe lubin
uh the guy from consensus if he steps down for those that don't know, ConsenSys
is basically like the company behind Ethereum, Metamask, all that stuff.
It's like if Joseph Lubin were to step down and it's like, all right, man, bye.
And then Jesse Pollack says, you know what?
I don't care about base.
Base can go to kingdom come where the sun doesn't shine.
And you lose your fundamental your fundamental thesis
and when you have that you kind of lose your passive flows right because the fundamentals
is what keeps the passive flows and if you don't have that then you just turn into avax
and i don't like avax i've been a proponent hater of avax for multiple years now
there's a reason for that but yeah it's anyways i i don't know how like
i speak to a lot of these founders like i'm at the point where if i'm speaking to a founder
and like there's obviously like what you're talking about is that there's very clear winners
right now in this market the only winner there's two winners hyperliquid is leading by far the
bit tensor is getting a spark right now i'm interested to see if that is just off the hype
from all in and then gtc summit if that is just off the hype from all in and the GTC
summit,
if that just pops or if there is actually something to the AI demand,
I actually definitely need to interview some for the team,
but it's like speaking of like all the 2021,
2022,
the,
you know,
all the L2s and L1s that launched and raised hundreds of millions of
dollars in 2022,
2023,
2024.
If they're not a lot of these chains,
they're not even focusing on tokenization yet.
They're still building bullshit DeFi.
Their company isn't even using Claude yet.
Like we're in a very shifting moment for the industry.
Like if you're not integrating
and focusing on what does work,
I honestly don't know how some of these products
survive in the next five years. I think just just like you said with like a lot of these
different change AVAX to like polka dot like polka literally came out and tried
launching parachain slot auctions and failed miserably like they don't have a
good like track line for doing what's right and innovating with the right
sector in the industry sector so it's like even if they have these hundred
million two hundred million three hundred million dollar treasuries are they going to do what's necessary or like the center necessity
i can't even speak here tonight but what's needed for the actual chain to survive that's going to be
very interesting over the next six months i think you're going to see it happen very very quickly
yeah maybe like uh a mass delisting would also help.
Yeah, using Coinbase is kind of crappy.
There's so many tickers now.
Yeah, what happens when they tokenize?
It's just going to be that you're going to have all your stock tickers too.
It's like that controls so much liquidity. And then now what's super interesting, a lot of these Layer 1s,
they were launching all their stable coins.
What's the reason now after the Clarity Act is passing?
Why am I going to go use stable on Cardano if there's no value to it?
Like, that's where I'm really shook right now.
It's like, yeah, a lot of these DeFi ecosystems are practically cooked.
If they're not fully decentralized, they might be cooked.
They're not fully decent because they might be took.
Yeah, I think a good trade right now for stables
is probably this maybe higher low that's forming on circle.
I missed out on that trade, but I was just so focused on Sandisk
and some of these other names where I missed out on circle.
And I think that's just going to happen in markets.
You're always going to miss something, right?
The price of pain, what are you willing to do for it, right?
What I mean by that is the price of pain of missing out or buying too late, buying too early.
There's a lot of pain you just have to have a strong stomach
but you look at a circle um market cap of 25 uh if it pulls back to like 15 bill or something like that, a higher low between 15 to 20 bill.
That would be great.
And it all depends on the market clarity acts.
I would assume like that would be,
I think that would be like a BTC ETF moment
where you have like a quick 3X run up on circle so i don't know after the market clarity
act a good trade would be like getting some leaps on circle and and i say this because like josh i
look at dude i look at things like eth soul i look at the top 10 and it's like why would i fuck with the top 10 if if i can just
go to trad fi and get safer beta that's still liquid and you can still shove in people can
still shove in size and not wake up and see a 50 haircut like all coins you know what i'm saying
like if i'm gonna go outside of the top 10 like and i'm a guy that just wants to ride the cycle
why would i buy anything outside of hype or like a pump that's like the other one that
i'm enthusiastic about pump um and that's if you think soul is gonna have at least like one more
echo bubble because uh i mean soul did make a marginal all-time high at like 300,
but it's going to take a lot of money for that to spike above the new all-time high.
But if you're bullish on on-chain, maybe Pump makes a marginal high at like 10 or something.
I think it's, besides Hyperliquid, it's the most revenue-generating platform still to this day, which is insane.
Yeah, they make like a million
dollars a day even during these working conditions i saw um and monad i think that's like a dark horse
um they don't really know what they're doing but the chart great man it has that that uh
it has that similar chart pattern that suey did in 2023 where it has that initial spike up um i'm
just looking at at this from a technician's perspective man then it has that drawdown
and just consolidates for a few months um but and it kind of like, oh, I'll bring Evan up right now.
It's kind of underlooked because, honestly,
there's nothing to do on-chain.
There was nothing to do on-chain, but they do have a bunch of money.
It's kind of like a what-if type play, but gosh, man, I don't't know i think they just launched at the wrong time
i do i think it's just like that's what's so it's so some of these chains man it's they raise so much
value and then it at the end day you can't predict the market it's just they just launched at a
terrible time and then like literally they launched and then claude's released and claude's having
it's literally the most it's quite literally the most innovative product to ever exist in all of mankind and all of history.
And it's just like the downloads are only advancing.
It's like – I don't know.
At least if they have a fat treasury, I think they're going to be okay because they can shift at the market as it does.
But it's a crazy time right now.
Yeah. Saving grace. it as it does but it's it's a crazy time right now yeah saving grace um even if a bunch of their team like i mean their team is like exiting a lot of their a lot of the guys that they brought on
for hype like people from ct um they've just left or they're not talking about their product anymore well i know personally that
there's like i won't like expose any clients or i've had that but i know personally multiple
exchanges that are completely switching to payment infrastructure so like they're still going to have
an exchange but they're like dialing back heavily on like perpetuals and everything they're investing
in the claw they're investing into uh all payment systems that are going to be used for just pay fi. It's, it's very interesting to see
like on the backend that these companies, how they're, cause you can't, you can't sit here,
I think right now and confidently like, this is where we're going to be in three months. There's
just a known trajectory. And so it's, it's very interesting to see where client funds are going.
So like, I can give some like perspective to the to the audience here because I run a KOL agency.
Trading volume on all exchanges, I'm sure you guys are aware of this, but is down dramatically,
like roughly 90%.
But what that means in terms of the marketing atmosphere is that these companies now, there's
still companies out there running KOL campaigns.
And if you're running a large scale, quarter million dollar like budget campaign right now, you're just essentially throwing that money into
the ether. And so there's also companies out there right now that are their CMOs just refuse to
agree or pay attention to the fact that we're not going to have this 2021 cycle boom or this 2023
cycle boom and that you just can't convert because people,
A, like from a retail perspective, they don't want to, they just don't feel safe.
There's so much uncertainty out there.
They're not going to open up transaction costs.
So it's very interesting to see that marketing aspect come into play when you have these
companies with multi-hundred million dollar budgets and they're not doing anything.
multi-hundred million dollar budgets and they're not doing anything they're just stepping away
They're just stepping away.
they're retiring they're like they're out it's it's chaotic out there with these multi-hundred
They're retiring.
million dollar if not billion dollar companies so so you think like uh some of these exchanges
are looking to become like a cash app or something like that like a block i think it's their last
play yeah it's it's they know oh so like for anybody that's like in the audience, it doesn't know how exchanges made money.
Like unless you're like a BNB or a Coinbase, most of these tier two exchanges, the only way they produce value isn't off spot purchase.
It's off perpetual contracts.
Almost 90 plus percent of their revenue is coming from perpetual contract platforms.
So the fact that that is gone and is almost completely depreciated, they're on short
fuels. And so it's interesting because this puts you in two positions. It puts you, A,
either the exchange has to today cut all their marketing costs, cut most of their team and start
pivoting the company towards something that could potentially survive the spare market.
Or B, you're going to start seeing exchanges go under within the next three to six months. The timeline on these are interesting.
Personally, I don't like seeing exchanges right now. There's exchanges out there that are like
sponsoring Tomorrowland and Formula One. I think you're retarded if you're exchange doing that. I
hope you guys are listening into this. You're actually retarded, fire your CMO because all of that money should be going into
literally open Claude
and building out an engineering pay-fi systems
that could be on ramps or off ramps for,
there's two ways.
Either you're tokenizing stocks and commodities
or you're becoming kind of the future of credit cards
or Venmos where you have significant yield rewards
that are positioned for your audience. So when you're cash spending, you get like 15% back in
Bitcoin or Ethereum or XRP. It's kind of a workaround from the Clarity Act issue. You can't
have somebody. So for example, I can't have, I can't put a thousand dollars into USDC on Coinbase
and get five or six percent yield
but what i can do is potentially use a third-party product where i'm depositing cash into a yield
account that is a spending account and there's like weird i'm learning about this still but
there's weird legislative pieces that i've seen both our internal lawyers like accountings and
attorneys everything talking about but also these companies position their products to
be able to incentivize these to spend on their platform.
So they're just becoming kind of Stripes or Venmos or PayPals.
And you're going to see X do this.
They're going to do it with their money after launching.
Evan, what's up, bro?
How are you, man?
What's going on, Wabi?
Yeah, glad to hear that you're
recovering well. You sound good, man. You know, always health is one of the most important things.
Yeah. I mean, a lot of good points by Joshua. Damn, I didn't realize the freaking trading
volume was down like 90% on a lot of these exchanges. So I think it's a really big
transitionary period to a certain extent.
And I think, you know, a lot of that coincides with altcoins too.
I think the fact that altcoins were really boring and just didn't get that, you know, that oomph that we all hope they would, you know, over the last few years.
I think that's kind of a similar thing.
And, you know, it attracts, you know, obviously a similar crowd in a lot of ways.
It attracts, you know, obviously a similar crowd in a lot of ways.
I do think that, you know, part of me, like, you know, you look at history rhymes, you know, it doesn't completely repeat.
And you look at a lot of things from, you know, kind of 2022.
Obviously, you're getting close to that period in 2022 where a lot of things kind of went belly up.
A lot of things, you know, didn't do well.
So I do think you may, you're going to see something go bankrupt.
You know what I mean?
In the next few months. That doesn't mean Bitcoin, you know, necessarily couldn't,
you know, that doesn't mean Bitcoin necessarily even has to go lower as to go create, you know,
a lot lower, but you know, something's going to probably blow up at some point. You know,
I think the thing too, with, um, I mean, obviously the major concern of micro strategy and the
preferreds is like, if it goes down enough, that's probably
going to blow up. But I mean, I think the best thing, the first thing I just want to say here,
and I think this is important to reiterate, I've been talking about this for many months now is
that like, I own micro strategy, I'm concerned about it, but I own it. But you have to have a
strategy. My strategy is if it makes a lower low against Bitcoin or like loses 100 bucks, I'm out,
I'm just going to convert to Bitcoin. So it's kind of a low risk, high reward play. And I think the same could be used for, you know, a lot of altcoins in
general, especially, you know, Wabi, you talk about hyper liquid a lot. I think that's a great,
you know, a great play. Just if it loses momentum against Bitcoin and starts really bleeding against
Bitcoin, get the hell out. You know, the same could be said for Monad and the same could be said for,
you know, any other altcoin that, you know, you think has, you know, some potential, some potential here. You know, if we
look at Bitcoin right now, we're still kind of in a crab market, I would say, you know, it's a
scalper's market, you know, day trader, interday trader market, you know, and whenever you hit kind
of just major resistance or support, you know, you have high odds, probably at least a 60, 70%
chance of winning a decent trade. I mean,
we're rejecting from a pretty big point at, what was it, 72K about, you know, you probably have
decent odds of going back to 69K just based on the way this market moves. You know, it's a crab
market. And it could generally be a crab market for until potentially October, you know, because
my view here is that the institutions, unless they get really scared and things really blow up, this thing probably is not going to lose 60K or go that much lower.
But until retail gets confident and puts their money in this, this thing probably isn't going to go much above 75K or 80K.
So you're probably going to be between a lot of these points from now until probably at least October towards, you know, quarter three or quarter four, excuse me.
probably at least October towards, you know, quarter three or quarter four, excuse me.
I do think there's a potential to see a jump maybe back up to the yearly anchored VWAP.
And that's going to be around, you know, 75, 76K, I think right around, you had right under 76K right now.
Their daily looks decent.
So there's a case to be made.
You know, it could take some time to break upward.
But I would say like short term, potentially a drop back to 69, you know, something like that.
That's what I'm looking for on the short play.
And then more of maybe, you know, let's say another week, two weeks, maybe into the end of this month or something, potentially up to another test at like 76 K.
And obviously, you know, I'm going to say the thing a lot of traders say here is that like if you can break above 76K, you know, if it goes up, then you got more momentum, then we could talk about potentially 80K.
I don't, it's going to be tough to break above 80K anytime soon, I would say, just with everything going on.
I think, you know, I'm not a, you know, there's some spaces where all they do is talk about Iran.
I mean, nothing, nothing against that, but I'm sick of it.
that, but I'm sick of it. And I hope that I won't have to hear about it too much after a month or
two months from now, because I think that's when likely this is going to be over based on the
betting odds, based on the way you're seeing Trump kind of fold and chicken out to a certain extent
on this. So I think one month, month and a half, I don't think any of these doom day things people
talk about are going to come to fruition. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think oil is going to go
up to 200 or anything like that. You know, I've been long on XLE.
That's the energy sector ETF, if you guys aren't familiar.
And, you know, that's a trade that's done really, really well.
And it's kind of like one of these things like let the winners ride.
You know, just like if you're in hype, for example, let the winners ride.
You just have to have a strategy on when to get the hell out, you know, when you lose momentum.
But, you know, so on and so on.
So far right now, I'm not seeing enough of a reason to get out of XLE.
I would say a couple more months maybe.
Maybe, you know, when you officially see a ceasefire, probably one month, two months would be my guess,
would be a good place to potentially take profits on XLE or oil, you know, things of that nature.
I think XLE is a much safer bet than oil, obviously.
But I don't know if I would suggest buying XLE at $60.
I mean, I got in at
like $45 or something like that. So I think that's one of the things to write up right now.
Or just, you know, obviously, slow accumulation of Bitcoin, DCing Bitcoin makes a lot of sense.
And I mean, obviously, ETH looks pretty strong against Bitcoin, you know, just based on monetary
policy, based on like the two week on the charts. So as long as I could hold the lows against Bitcoin, you know, just based on monetary policy, based on like the two week on the charts. So as long as I could hold the lows against Bitcoin from the, you know, beginning of February,
I think that that should continue forward generally. So yeah, I mean, I wouldn't be,
you know, overly bearish here. I do think that like TradFi probably could come down, you know,
a bit more, but maybe not even that crazy. We'll see what happens with the NASDAQ. I mean,
you're retesting the November lows. You're at the same price you
were essentially back in, when was it like August of 2025? So, you know, part of me thinks you're
definitely going to go lower on the NASDAQ, like, you know, 13% down in total, but we'll see what
happens. We almost had a 10% correction so far. So, you know, it definitely doesn't look like the
most unattractive thing right now. You're kind of know getting you know you've kind of seen some of the pain even if you do go down another 10 percent like
um you know obviously a lot of people won't pray long at the all-time high so you know we'll see
what happens over the next couple months um cautious optimism right now I would say
it reminds me a lot Evan of uh the fall of 2023 man um i would say like it's probably going to
range highs which is in the mid fours um a lot of people don't even know how to bridge the tat
that's the one thing that probably like just pumps it up a bit more um yes i i think man what do you think like a
bottom before wars gets in man i think if mid-may comes around and still no lower lows
i think we might actually be bottoms man um yeah I don't see why
If the bull market was apathetic
Then the bear is probably going to be
Apathetic as well
Really sluggish
On both ends
And as far as like
Dude, do you think
Alt-BTC is ever going gonna make an all-time high again
that's the others chart others btc do you think that's ever gonna make all-time highs
um maybe not that one that would be tough because you got so many shit coins in there i feel like
but if you look at like the new thing that people have and i think this is the future of crypto you
know i think in 10 15 years everybody who buys they're going to buy some type of index fund of like the top 20 or top 100 cryptos.
So if you look at something that just came out, like the index fund of it, like CMC 20 versus Bitcoin, that probably will make all time highs against Bitcoin.
Bitcoin. Others versus Bitcoin. Oh, man, I haven't looked at that. That chart has just been, you
Others versus Bitcoin.
Oh, man, I haven't looked at that.
know, I'm kind of, you know, it's just like so many of these coins have been in bear markets,
you know, against Bitcoin for so many years. And usually like the thing too, is like, I'm not
saying everything that's been in a bear market for like four or five years is never going to come
back. But I mean, that chart peaked in December of 21. You've been in a bear market now for four
years. I mean, I don't know, man, it's going to be years i mean i don't know man it's gonna be tough like
never say never but it's gonna be tough because you got a lot of shit tokens in there but like
the top 100 against bitcoin i think there's a decent you know a decent case to be made for
that especially when a lot of people like i think there's gonna be etfs of like the top 20 all coins
you know what i mean including bitcoin just the top 20 cryptos.
And I think that's what the majority of people will invest in in like 10 to 15 years from now.
So I think that's the thing to look at. Others versus Bitcoin, that's probably going to be in
a crab market for a while. I mean, it'll probably go up against Bitcoin because of monetary policy,
but it's tough, man, because it's picking a needle in the haystack. You know what I mean? Like you gotta, you gotta ride the right stuff up. It's tough. I'm not saying people
can't do it. And I mean, a lot of your calls have been amazing, Wabi. I mean, if you've just done it
with hype and, you know, certain things, like you would be good. Um, but you just gotta keep an eye
on those. I'm not a, I'm not a genius, bro. I'm not, I'm a regular market participant, man.
I think, man, like in markets, dude, I think everyone is lucky.
You're either lucky or you have an access to information earlier than anyone else.
So there are a lot of people on here, dude, and I used to be one of them.
Actually, no, no, I never was.
Eh, maybe, but like there are a lot of people that stream and they clip any call that they make and then they just glaze themselves.
And they're like, this is the best show ever.
This is where you find all the alpha.
No one said this.
No one said that. And then it's like, I listen to these guys. And then like you look at their history and they're just, they just,
they've just extracted a majority of their audience and they're trying to,
they're trying to funnel new followers on these small moves that have happened
lately. And it's like, I don't, I don't know, man.
Like a lot of these clip farmers, they glaze themselves.
A lot of crypto Twitter is just known for glazing themselves.
I remember I was doing that with Celestia and shit.
And then the market just went full easy mode when Pepe was going crazy.
Then I kind of took a step back.
I would say over the last two years, I've kind of taken a step back from that um but i do like to
meme post a lot right like if i like a meme coin i'll like post memes and shit about it but
as far as like glazing myself it's i don't like to clip farm as much anymore um because i know
it's a i know it's a tough market right now and all right cool like
sandisk oil hype whatever all that stuff is all good and dandy but like anything can happen in
markets dude uh i didn't expect luna to happen like i i literally believed that luna was gonna
like change the world um and then that day happened, which like by far, that's probably, that was probably the worst day of my entire life.
When Luna went to zero, that is hands down, like to date, the worst day of my entire life.
But anyways, anything can happen, dude.
Anything can happen.
I think Warren Buffett said one one time like the market doesn't
have to open um tomorrow right so anything can happen and you're only as good as like
there's two ways to think about it right you're only as good as your last trade
or you're only as good as like your cumulative pnl lifetime pnl right and then it's like all right
what do you do after you make that money right Because at some point, you're going to have to take a step back and just passively invest. And I've said this before,
but I would say over 95% of people in this space, they just want to make gains on alts
and then live off of Coca-Cola dividends. That's all they want to do. You want to live off of Coca-Cola and Apple dividends.
That is your dream.
You know that guy Daniel Radcliffe, right, from Harry Potter?
Bro, all of his money that he made when he was a kid,
his parents put it in the stock market,
and now he lives comfortably making like 600 bands a month based off of just pure dividends
right i guarantee a lot of you would do that if you were just living off of dividends off of the
s p right like 30 bands 20 bands a month you would be happy you would never need to touch an altcoin
ever again and i think that's the future for a lot of us in here. At some point, you're just going to buy ETFs. And unfortunately, for now, crypto doesn't have that. For now, at least, right? Because crypto, at least I think for the next five to 10 years is still going to be in discovery mode.
to 10 years is still going to be in discovery mode. As quickly as it's moved, I think after
the 2021 cycle, this asset class has been in stagflation. If you compare it to the equity
market, equities have vastly outperformed crypto. This was an equity cycle. Maybe this cycle,
it's a bit different, but we've seen now that crypto could actually stagnate. And unless you are a market participant that's looking for unsophisticated capital to go into sectors, whether it's AI or memes, you're just going to destroy yourself and lose.
thing to be cognizant about because people don't have that helicopter money right um i think the
only thing that we've had as far as stimulus this cycle was uh the trump run right like i think
people forget that the day of the uh election you could have bought some zero days and printed
hand over fist on hood um on uh on coin um on nvidia could have bought some zero days and
made a ton of money that week um or the next day that's how zero days work and even bought some
short-term calls right you would have printed over those next few weeks man um so that's the
thing right like as more crypto people figure out how trad fight works they're like you know i
can buy circle instead of solana and buy some leaps and i'll perform soul i'm gonna do that
right that's why like i think crypto right now is mostly like it's still in discovery
um like what's the next step right you need some monetary policy to
crank its way into the system.
Lower weights, lower, not lower weights,
but lower rates to be settled into the economy, some QE.
Like that's what's going to get the others' BTC index all-time high,
I think, man.
But I'm going to go ahead and wrap up, guys.
I want to thank all the speakers. I want to thank Josh, Evan, Mitch, David for coming on today's show, for joining me.
Guys, if you've enjoyed the show, if you've enjoyed the stream over the last two and a
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