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Market Talk: BTC 100k soon!? Spx hits new ath!!? Will 2026 be bullish?
Recorded: Dec. 29, 2025 Duration: 1:28:40Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent market talk, crypto enthusiasts discussed the stagnant price action of Bitcoin, which has remained between $87K to $90K, while silver has surged by 25% and is now among the top four assets by market cap. The conversation highlighted emerging trends in precious metals, the impact of political announcements on market dynamics, and the potential for a rebound in small-cap stocks as economic conditions evolve.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Just get to the limit
Walk along with razor edge
Don't look down, just keep your head
Open the limit open
open Oh, yeah. Nothing that's gone so close now, you barely have to break so much down.
Ooh, yeah.
Welcome to the limits.
Take it maybe one step more.
I'm getting still played and it's over.
You better win it. Thank you. Oh, yeah. No one left to stand in your way. You might get to tell us, but you'll never be safe for yourself. Thank you. Welcome to the limit
Standing on the razor's edge
Don't look down, just keep your head
You're gonna die
Welcome to the limit Don't let down, just keep your head in your head.
Welcome to the living room. Welcome to the living room.
Hey, what's going on, guys?
Welcome back to Market Talk.
Feels great to be back after almost a week now, ladies and gents. I hope you all had a fantastic weekend, a marvelous Christmas, Christmas Eve, Hanukkah, or maybe you don't celebrate any of that and you just relax.
Price action, as you guys have clearly seen, did not really do much.
We've just been in the same range for well over two weeks now.
BTC has been pinned between $87K to $90K, just over two weeks now. BTC has been pinned between 87k to 90k, just over 90k,
despite the S&P making new all-time high. And speaking of things that have made all-time highs,
silver has gone up like 25% since we last went live here on the 23rd last week it's absolutely insane man
um and just to put things into perspective the move that silver has made over the last week
week and a half is equivalent to btc skyrocketing from where it's trading at right now at 88 87k all the way to like 140
and that is uh that is something massive man silver uh i think silver right now is like
probably among the top four assets by market cap right now which is um insane, man. This thing is up year to date like 150%.
And I understand that some people that have been trading markets for multiple decades
are signaling that whenever you have assets like silver and a few other precious metals
rally so viciously in a melt-up kind of fashion that that
would entail something catastrophic coming to the economy. Now, I'm not sure if that's going to
happen, to be honest. The fact of the matter is, everyone's now talking about silver after silver went through multiple decades of essentially doing nothing.
Basically, silver hit an all-time high this month after not doing so for decades.
I think silver peaked out in the late 70s or early 80s, something along those lines, and basically did
nothing up until now. I understand that I think starting January 1st, there's going to be something
in regards to imports for silver, and that's why you're seeing this squeeze. We also had a bank
getting absolutely demolished because of their short position on silver,
which was in the billions, which is honestly quite ironic, man,
because you'd expect people to be blown out longing and not shorting,
which, I mean, I'm not sure why a U.S. bank would try to short a market that is so controlled by Trump and his policies.
And it is what it is, man.
Sometimes bodies need to be sacrificed in these markets.
And that just does not only apply to crypto.
We had a few banks getting absolutely cooked about two and a half years ago
when silicon value bank silvergate bank and a few other vc banks got absolutely destroyed
in the first quarter going to the second quarter of 2023 it just so happens that now it's kind of
like the reverse rather than people being long net long-sern assets they were net short
and lo and behold it ended up being a boomer asset called silver and um i understand that
precious metals are are having a little bit of a correction today but and i just want to make it
clear that we haven't really streamed on here over the last couple of days due to Christmas vacation and all that stuff.
So I just want to go more so along of the lines of like just recapping what's went on since we haven't gone live here.
Because I just think that one day of price action isn't really indicative of a move coming into the end of the year, right?
Endices are still in a higher time frame uptrend.
I think Tesla blasted through 500 per share, which is absolutely insane.
I know small caps are having some weakness, but, I mean, guys,
it's been three years since markets globally bottomed,
three years uh since markets globally bottoms and things like the iwm are they're just no longer
signal in my opinion as much um it hasn't really meant much for crypto in a while probably in over
a year and markets moving forward are trying to price in things like robotics and that sort of stuff
is usually going to be priced in right now through things like tesla with uh i think it's called
optimus and a few other products as well um and it is what it is man i'm not sure when small caps
come back maybe in q3 of next year going midterms, once these lower rates are starting to get priced into the economy and you have the new Fed chair in the market and slashing rates to like half a percent or maybe negative.
Who knows, man?
On the flip side, for some interesting stuff that's headed our way, next week we are going to have Trump announcing his selection for Fed chair.
So perhaps that will ignite the squeeze that so many people are waiting for in crypto.
Some people are shooting for the mid-90s like myself.
And you have some people that are a bit more bullish in the short term and by short
term i mean like the next week week and a half uh after trump gives his announcement some people
think that btc is going to catch up to silver the rally that silver had kind of like what bitcoin
did after gold topped we had a rally to about 116kK back in October. And, you know, maybe we do get that
bounce over $100K. Maybe. Maybe, right? When you see something happen in things like precious
metals, specifically silver in this point, Bitcoin is usually a laggard when it comes to that. And
there's usually a bounce that occurs.
And if we don't bounce, man, that would honestly be hilarious, man.
A boomer asset rallying dozens of percentage points quarter by quarter, and BTC does nothing, man.
On-chain, some interesting stuff has happened. White Wh essentially went from like three mil to like
70 which hey man i find that pretty based um you have a guy that had his funds locked on mexc
earlier this year he gets his money back uh a few guys launch a community token. He CTOs it and throws in millions into the LP, locks it, and basically market makes his own token.
I find that pretty based.
We also have a few other runners going to, like, damn near 20 mil, which, of course, that really isn't that high.
But in these market conditions, we'll just take what we can get right but uh not many
runners on chain um maybe white whale does provide some breadth some optimism into the trenches many
people are in stables many people are in majors so maybe alt actually do catch a bit of breadth i know i like to say that word a lot as btc
um has a squeeze right maybe a few bankers put some shorts on mstr and ibit and they get squeezed
like orange juice but either way guys welcome back to market talk i hope you all had
a fantastic rest over these last few days i hope you all spent some time with your families,
whether you're here live listening to us or listening to the recording. I want to welcome
you all back. And what I expect this week, honestly, I don't really expect much price
action. I don't even expect many people to join these shows going into the new year.
Usually people are off the buttons the last two weeks of the year.
Usually people are tuned off.
They're not really active on social media.
They're not really paying attention to the news.
But for the few that are here, the few that do participate, whether it's low vol or zero to little events in the markets.
Welcome, welcome.
I'm here joined by Prometheus and Josh.
If you guys want to come on up, feel free to hit the request button.
As I said, there's not really much that's going to be happening going into the new year.
Probably not much volume or activity until next week.
But we're still going to cook for you guys. So with that being said,
I'm going to pass it on over to Josh and Josh,
I want to welcome you up here.
But before that,
guys,
if y'all can show some love to the space,
show some love to the stream,
best way to do that guys is by clicking the spaces tab.
Once you guys do that, you'll see a nice link
right above our profile pictures that says x.com slash i slash spaces yes and go ahead smash up
the like button hit up the repost button guys it does a number of things helps bring the show
out into the algorithm helps bring more people in here even though it's likely going to be uh
low volume as it is the end of the year but despite that we're still going to cook for you
guys today so josh what's up man how are you how was your christmas brother and uh thanks for
coming on the show man it's uh it's pretty rare to to see people um active on socials uh during
this time of the year, man.
Yeah, no, dude, thanks for having me.
And always, man, I'm just walking.
I'm in Point Loma right now in San Diego,
just enjoying the kind of tail end of the holidays here.
But, you know, it's good.
I think everybody likes to be able to just sit down with their family
and kind of relax, especially at a time where almost every single fund
and all the news starts to settle. with their family and kind of relax, especially at a time where almost every single fund and
all the news starts to settle. I mean, despite, you know, Minnesota being completely on fire with
fraud, it's, you know, relatively slow. You know, as you were just mentioning, it's not a lot of
volume. You have a lot of stuff happening right now with silver. Silver is, of course, the most
interesting market to watch right now. There's a lot of conversations now circling on, you know,
whether it's potentially multiple different giants looking at short or stuck in massive short squeezes on silver that could actually
like convey to potential bank dealers in Q1, which, you know, usually when that just starts
happening, I feel like narratives just start being reached for just because markets are
slow.
Markets aren't, you know, reacting the way most retail wants.
And, you know, like it just. And you got to be careful with what
the mainstream media narrative is at the moment. For me, I took a nice, beautiful gold short
right when silver hits $80. And that's up a little bit right now. But you can't even,
unfortunately, do huge gold short positions on these exchanges. You got like PAX Gold,
which you can do, I think, a max of 3X or 20X. I think we're on
a 20X and it might be like only a thousand dollars in margin. So they keep your risks
technically minimized. And that's really the only trade I'm looking at right now. I mean,
if you're looking at the broad end of the altcoin market, you're not going to get a lot of volume
reaction in anything other than pretty much the prediction markets. And so I keep kind of telling
everybody here,
and you're going to hear a plane probably take off right over me,
so I might have to mute if it gets too loud.
But it's really just focused on what are going to be the narratives that are starting to cook here into Q1.
What is everyone transferring over into?
And so what I usually recommend people to listen to
is Vlad Tenobs, Earnings Call.
Listen to Robinhood, listen to Coinbase.
And interesting enough, I'll give you guys some alpha here
because I'm building an eSports application for predictions and trading.
I just had a call with Crypto.com and OKEx this week.
And for the first time ever, this was super interesting to me.
You know, they were actually asking questions about the prediction side of markets
because I'm going to guess that you're going to see Coinbase
and everybody just integrate predictions sometime in Q1, Q2.
And so even the exchanges here are starting to rotate their margins on their marketing budgets, etc.,
to start pivoting and catering towards what the retail audience wants.
And it's very clear that it's not the open leverage market conditions that everybody's used to.
So when you start just looking at where we're heading here in the near term, for me, it's really just three things still.
It's tokenization, it's predictions, and it's pay five through stable coins.
And unfortunately, two of those, tokenization and stable coins, aren't going to be as retail friendly as the prediction side of the market.
I think you're going to see a lot of projects. There's a project called Space.
I think they raised five or six million dollars for their predictions application through kind of like a Kickstarter app.
There's a lot of hype and momentum through that kind of narrative right now.
But if you're looking at where the money is being made on these L2s or these L3s, it's going to be primarily off their transactions for their stablecoins.
So nobody's really being rewarded as a holder in terms of the altcoin tokens so what i'm looking
for is okay which products which l2s have massive budgets a good one i'm like watching is that i've
been holder of forever that's still like shit in terms of token performance is polygon but they're
like the largest stablecoin payment rail that's out there it's going to be interesting to see if
any of these l2s or l3s decide to change their tokenomics dramatically. Are they going to do deflationary mechanics? Are they
going to do rev share buybacks? Are they going to switch their governance models?
Because if you don't, we're running into an interesting moment in these markets
where it is incredibly bullish for institutions and retail is just being continued to be dragged
out due to the stagflated economy and cost affordability crisis.
So I think we can open up the conversation there.
But I mean, there's a lot we can discuss in terms of like what we see on a macro like perspectives going into Q2 or have to of next year.
But I agree with you, Wabi.
Like I want to be expecting anything of substantial movement in the next two to three weeks here on volume.
next you know two to three weeks here on volume man um this year for crypto has honestly been
a letdown maybe we get like what people were expecting for 2025 and crypto next year um
i think the biggest thing that everyone's waiting for is now like
first off how we close the year um if we actually close in the red, next year might be green.
And I'm saying that just out of bias because, like, Bitcoin has never had more than one red yearly candle.
And I would say it's probably going to be just as volatile as 2025.
There is a possibility that we could repeat the same thing that we saw this year.
We hit some major low, everyone thinks it's over, and then we have some follow-through.
But rather than make a marginal all-time high this time, we probably go to 150, 160.
this time we probably go to like 150 160 like if bitcoin is going to make an all-time high in 2026
it's probably going to go um substantially higher than where we topped out at in october and i think
the biggest elephant in the room is like all coins right um that is the elephant in the room dude
that is the elephant in the room, dude.
And, like, my dubious take is that as rates go lower,
a lot of these, like, all-coin ETFs, right,
you have the Doge ETF, Solana ETF,
that stuff starts to pick up on volume.
That would be my guess.
And I'm saying that, Josh, because, like, you know,
you have Besant a few weeks ago saying to, you know, taper your market expectations for the next few months. And then you have Trump
also saying that 2026 is going to be massive for growth. So if Bessette's timeline is for growth
to start in a few months, and again, he's shooting for gdp to go to 67 percent
and gdp is essentially real growth and we had a monster gdp print then that would obviously entail
a wave of breadth in the altcoin space which we actually saw over the summertime that was a
quite an impressive rally that we saw over the summer um early summer basically from like may
all the way to august like it was i mean it was it was essentially easy mode man eth went to 5000
hyper liquid went to all-time highs bnb went to all-time highs um and we didn't get that we didn't
get that uh last year and i know last on-chain was a bit differently, but nonetheless, there was still a wave of breadth that happened this year.
Not as big as we wanted to, but still a wave of breadth.
If GDP is going to spike that high, man, and we're going to have this new Fed chair,
then I would really only say if we're going to have some turbulent times it's going to happen um anytime from now until
powell leaves office and after that i would say it's honestly blue skies ahead man no matter what
uh no matter no matter what level we're trading at man but dude is anyone in like your normie
circle talking about silver and shit like that or not?
So, or is that to Prometheus?
Prometheus, are we going to say something, bro?
No, I mean, Josh, go ahead.
It's, I mean, I talked to somebody about it two days ago.
Yeah, I mean, I had a normie guy talk about it two days ago to me.
Yeah, for me, it's kind of like, of course, I see retail in it. As soon as I see crypto Twitter in it, it's kind of like, you know, there is a lot of exposure. And I think you can see from the reaction of going from $85 down over 10% to $71 today. There's a lot of narratives already switching. Like you can go on headlines and see like, oh, the silver bubble has popped, etc. To me, it's just like, you know, anytime there's a huge parabolic zone, it's like I'm not going to be touching into that market, even if I believe in the growth.
Like I'm not at all bearish on silver because of the AI development.
I just think people are chasing trends a little too strongly, especially just after.
I feel like this just became a thing since 2021 is retails much more or were much more like.
What would be the right word here?
Interested in these like metas that were
taking place. But like at the end of the day, today, retail really doesn't have a lot of
liquidity. They're at max debt levels, their credits are at all time highs, they're struggling
to, you know, either find jobs, or you're looking at AI outpacing you and now they're paying for
more AI subscriptions just to keep up with their jobs. So for me, it's like, you know, I still
think it's very much institutional. And I think if you look at what China is doing and, you know, all the regulations
with exports and stuff, that's more institutionally manipulated. And it's because of export controls,
especially in this AI race, which is what I've kind of kept doubling down on here in this last
year is like, you know, what happens when all these AI subscriptions, this is something we're
writing, we're doing a huge research paper on this right now, but it's, you know, what happens when all these AI subscriptions, this is something we're writing,
we're doing a huge research paper on this right now, but it's, you know, what is going to be the
average rate of subscriptions for AI programs for the individual household in 2027, 2028?
Because if you actually look at that, and you say, okay, before 2020, it was zero. And after
2027, 2028, it's going to be 600 to $1,000
because they have to remain competitive for their workforce. Like, are these companies paying these
employees to use subscription models? Do they get write-offs, et cetera? And if not, that's a lot of
retail liquidity. And then you have the opposite side of that, which is going to be the tokenization
aspect of like, okay, what does it look like when Coinbase and Robinhood, which were, you know,
traditionally, let's use Coinbase for the best example, traditionally a completely crypto-focused
application where all volume in that application went directly to crypto. What happens now when
you have all these equity companies tokenizing and that pulls liquidity from the traditional
total three, total two crypto market caps? And so, you know, long story short on it is just like,
for me, it's, I'm not chasing the silver trend right now. I think I caught a really good
show. I'm just going to be trading in and out of the tops of these markets.
And what I'm going to be looking for is like, okay, what is the next valve to start turning
into that meta in Q1, Q2, as this institutional money does start to rotate? And that goes back
into the same three categories
I keep talking about.
But happy to hear other thoughts too on it.
I don't think silver slows down.
I think we need more and more silver,
just no matter what,
because of its conducting for AI and growth and energy.
For me, it's feel free to share your experience
with Anormi talking to you about,
I guess the diseases that silver
cures bro yeah so over the weekend we're just uh hanging out with the fiance and did you take
him out to the woodshed bro no no no no there was no woodshed or skis going on this weekend, just sipping Blanton's, sipping some nice whiskey.
And one of her friend's husbands is a financial advisor.
And for all of you that are in the markets, if you're on Twitter, if you're in some trading group, you probably have more knowledge on current market environments than most financial advisors do.
And so the financial advisor was talking to me and, you know, he was discussing the whole silver trade and was like, well, do you think it's a good buy?
Do you think I should be buying silver miners?
silver miners. And I think if you haven't gotten in at this point, I think probably the last,
you know, line in the sand or the last, you know, ship to leave was about 40 bucks.
If you didn't get in by then, I think you're, you know, drastically late to this trade,
probably going to enter into a consolidation period. That's typically what we see when we do see blow-offs or rather large
parabolic moves to the upside for silver for an asset class or for not an asset class but for an
asset that large one of the largest in the world is to make a move like it just did and to expect
it to go you know hundreds and hundreds of percents more from here immediately in the short
term I think is it's pretty ludicrous,
especially if we're starting to see some of the larger players already blow up in their
short positioning and they're already starting to cover.
That likely means that you're getting to some form of saturation period in regards to demand.
And there's probably not very many sellers left in that chart.
there's probably not a, not very many sellers left, uh, in that chart. So, you know, you get,
you kind of look at it like, okay, nobody's really left to buy, you know, all the four
sellers are now out and all you have is, you know, normies now buying the top. You're probably going
to be seeing heavy profit taking from an institutional perspective at this point.
And that's generally topping structure. Uh, hard say. If you're late to the silver trade, I think industrial metals are still a fantastic
buy. If you look at the copper chart, that thing looks like it could double tomorrow.
A lot of people have been talking about palladium. I think copper is maybe a little bit of a laggard
because of the policies that Trump put back in place back in June, I believe it was, for copper exports.
Correct me if I'm wrong.
You're seeing a lot of the commodities get talked about.
I think oil has a lot of room to the upside, actually, in my opinion.
I love a lot of these commodity companies, actually.
Their charts, at least, XOM is one
we've been talking about in the Discord. It looks fantastic. One of my picks of the litter is called
AROC. It's a natural gas compression company. So they specialize in energy transportation. I think
that's a great one. If you look at PWR, I think it's Concentra. Off the top of my head, I can't
remember the name of the actual
company itself, but fantastic financials there for that company. So those are kind of my picks
of the letters for those. If we're talking crypto guys, I mean, I hope everybody got away from the
charts over the holidays and you spent some time with the family. I mean, obviously, you know,
we all work very, very, very hard throughout the year. And it's important that, you know, if you're working hard, you're doing it for
a reason. And hopefully that reason is to enjoy the good times. So I hope everybody enjoyed the
good times. And price action was abysmal, man. I stayed away from the charts. I was very checked
out. And thankfully, you know, nothing happened. I didn't have any alerts go off it was very very you know it was a snooze
um and i once you see bitcoin move i think that you're gonna see a nice trend continuation
probably for a good 30 to 45 days following whatever move we have to either side of this
range wabi you know me in my positioning here. What I'm expecting is some form of bounce.
I'm going to keep kind of the plays close to my chest on how I'm playing this and keeping it to
the Discord members. But with that being said, I think that there's a lot of opportunity here.
I think that you're seeing a lot of complacent short positioning within the market. I mean,
anybody that's shorted above 92K has not even sweated their position
whatsoever because anytime we bounce up into that region, it's reversed in, you know, under like
two, three hours, which is kind of crazy to think about. And people that have been short altcoins
have not even had to worry about it one bit. So typically what you do see is you see that
positioning get tested. I'd be shocked if they don't. I would be shocked
if they just let this thing roll over. You look at equities continuing to chad higher. We saw last
week on the half day was a lot of flows coming to 7,000. We are going to have a significant,
maybe it already happened, but OPEX, we saw, you know, the options
expiry, and that's been a magnet for the indices for a significant period of time. And when you
get that similar to what we had, interestingly enough, at the beginning of this year, you know,
price likes to hover around it. Once you do get that expiry and all those options roll off,
and people roll out, you then see kind of the doors open up
and you allow for, you know, new positioning to come in. Typically what happens is, you know,
a big trend will then ensue for a lot of you that don't know after we had the options expiry
in back before COVID, it was a week before COVID started. And then you really saw obviously what happened,
and then you saw what happened and, you know, big moves ensue after options expiry. So we'll see if
that, you know, plays into it. Everybody says, oh, we've had a bigger options expiry than the last
one. Well, I mean, that's just because flows are bigger and bigger and bigger, and there's more and
more and more participants within the market. Like that's, that's nothing special. The fact that
the, there's the expiration
date is important to look at, but not the actual size of the expiry really. Um, what else, what
else, what else, man? I just, I'm being very patient right here. I don't think that there's
any reason to be, you know, too excited over, you know, three, 4% bounces, um, until you get
confirmations of a nice close above certain levels i don't think that the bitcoin bottoms in i remain in the you know
the camp on the high time frame that the top is very very much in but more so the lower time frame
structure if you look at you know the structure from 82k until now that is not one that's
indicative of a bottom for me so very much so leaning into the camp that we're going to bounce.
And a lot of people are expecting bounces, guys.
And it's been in a liquid slop fest really the past this entire month.
And when we do see this low volatility, you know, or not low volatility, excuse me.
I mean, it has been low volatility, but low volume regime.
You know, a lot of people are like thinking that that just means trend continuation,
the downside, and it can, but it also means as well that you have to be very, very, very careful,
careful from a positioning standpoint that the shorts can get taken out to the woodshed as well.
And what I mean by that is you can see aggressive, aggressive, aggressive liquidation and stop hunts
to on either sides of the trade.
Right. And I just want to make sure everybody's very cognizant of that. Again, you know, very
relaxed. I hope you guys had a fantastic holiday with your family. Hopefully everybody's able to
enjoy it. That's kind of what I got here going into the beginning of the week and into the
beginning of the new year. So that being said, i will pass it back on over to wabi yeah price action was abyssal man did you see that
grind up that we had uh after futures opened btc looked like it was about a melt up man
went from 86 to just over 90 it was insane dude and then it just got fully barred in a 15 minute candle
that is just that's like the big bacon classic i call that the big bacon classic pattern
are you trademarking that term wobby that's the big bacon classic pattern dude
we saw a ton right before that move we We saw a ton of selling come in.
And then, you know, probably Binance.
I mean, it's Binance and Wintermeet have been, you know, big proponent of kind of this typical dynamic that's been ensuing.
But you just see a lot of spot selling come in.
a lot of spot selling come in and, and then immediately they just drive price higher, uh,
and through OI, right. There's no actual organic demand within the chart. Um, you know, they target
a lot of, or they target short positioning. And once they do that, they then target long
positioning, right. And then they just unwind back in they just unwind it back
into the bed so it's it's kind of crazy it's it's kind of crazy what's going on
wabi you there yeah i was just throwing some emojis man there you go and uh i threw in a bit
of a pause but um everyone likes to point towards like 10 10 is the reason for all this price action
man i think people need to move on i think people need to move on. I think people need to move on from that, man,
because all it takes is more buyers than sellers
or for some gigawail to transfer from stables over to majors,
and we're back.
It's kind of like the cope that people had
when Trump launched his token and we were grinding down.
It's like, bro, watch this, watch this right and then beset comes out
cause the bottom on the vix and then we have the quickest reversal seen in equity market history
and crypto grinds up to new highs um i'm kind of in that camp at some point next year man but
for me let me ask you this man what's your timeline on like, all right, X amount of time has passed. Bitcoin is and make japan's 1980s credit bubble look like look like a full focus economy
not i i actually think like trump isn't even in control to be honest I think it's probably going to be some goofball handling the economic side of things.
And he's going to make Alan Greenspan's QE look like Paul Volcker's rate hiking parade.
For those that don't understand the analogy I'm trying to make, in the early 80s, right, and late 70s, the chairman of the Federal Reserve
was this big giant who was like six foot 10. And his name was Paul Volcker. He would come in with
a fat cigar and then listen to the press and then say, I'm raising rates by 5%. And he did that multiple times. He raised rates to damn near 20%
and he crushed the economy, absolutely butchered it short term. And then long term, maybe he
actually did save the economy long term. And we didn't turn into Venezuela or Chile or any of these other Hispanic
countries which spiraled into nothingness with their currency debasement. So I think that's
going to be this new Fed chair, right? And whoever is going to control that new Fed chair,
because these people are puppets and they're gonna they're gonna do the inverse volker um
so it's gonna be like the big mac supreme i think so it's gonna be a mixture of like the late 90s
and early 2000s early 2000s as far as how based the markets are gonna be uh and for those that
were raised during the early 2000s i'm sure you guys remember shows like Viva La Bam, movies like Jackass, The X Games, Halo, Halo 2.
Am I ringing any bells here, Prometheus?
Mountain Dew, Baja Blast, Mountain Dew, Halo Flavor.
That's the kind of market market that we're gonna enter and you know
what's crazy man when we were kids growing up in that time period um the economy was actually in
shambles but um all that stuff was pretty based mountain dew and bmx x game stuff like that so bro did you ever wear what were those high top um skate sneakers
i can't and they had a huge tongue on them oh do you know what i'm talking about bro like
like the old school vans dude like yeah but they weren't vans like vulcan or something i can't
remember the name yeah vulcan vulcan vulcan yeah, yeah. Yeah, those were crazy.
No, I mean, from a timing perspective, though,
I'm not one that's big on trying to predict macro, per se.
I more so am leaning into the technicals.
I know on the high time frame that we have a very significant topping structure on Bitcoin.
I think that we need an equal amount of accumulation to occur. of friction and you need to create a lot of buzz and reasoning for people to jump back into crypto
that is in magnitudes larger than the supply in which we created over this year. If you're able
to do that and you're able to get everybody back in these markets for whatever reason,
then we go to new all-time highs and we can name plethora of reasons. As of right now,
I don't think that there is the sheer amount of
demand necessary within this market to take us to new highs. Now, from a timing perspective,
I'm looking at a good 60-day-ish window for either a bottom to occur or for some form of
shoulder to form. I think over the next 60 days, you're
going to see a significant structure form. And like I said, whether that's an ample amount of
accumulation occur or some form of shoulder. And like I said, I think the shoulder could form
a lot higher than some may think. We essentially had a sell-off immediately from, or ever since 107K, the sell-off has
never been retested, right?
The value or the origin of that move has never been retested, right?
The market has never came back and really checked to see, hey, are we actually not accepting
this price anymore?
And we want to go find a more you know meaningful price that we
would accept at lower prices or are we going to accept back these prices um and then we're going
to go find value higher um and so i think that you could come up a lot higher in regards to price
and some may think a lot of people are calling for like 96 98k um i see why there's reason to
call for that but um you know the ultimate kind of Hades trade would be
getting everybody back into these markets before rolling it over to new lows. As of right now,
I am in the camp that I'm not making a decision on directionality until either we break from out unless we break out of 90.5k roughly if you can
get above that weekend liquidity that we left back on i think it was like the 15th or something like
that if you can get back above that and you can remain above it for like more than a day you know
we're probably going to start trending higher meaningfully. You have the yearly open, I believe,
right around 92, if I'm not mistaken. And then if we lose 85 to 86, it's very important for me.
And the reason why is because that low, as many of you may know, that was a lot. So one,
a lot of cell pressure came in at that low. Two, it was during the BOJ announcement.
And because of that, there was structural significance there.
A lot of people were expecting potential rate cuts beyond what they were, you know, what
was priced in.
We saw a lot of passive buyers come in and bid up those, bid up and buy that low when
those sellers came in. And you also saw volatility collapse in on itself at that same moment, the following day.
So if we can structurally remain above 84 to 85, it's a fantastic look for bulls.
If you start to come down into that low and you cannot see a strong reaction from it from buyers, or you do not see a strong reaction from it from
buyers, you're going to be going to new lows. There's nothing stopping you and holding you
then from going to below 82 to 80. And in my opinion, a lot of people think you're going to
stop at 74. I don't think that there's necessarily a reason for you to stop at 74. Sure, you call the
structural retest you want, but there's no value there. The real value is at 74 sure you you know call the structural retest you want but there's
no value there the real value is at 68 so you probably come down into like 68 thereafter so
but what about 67 i mean it yeah i mean 67 420 let's let's call it what it is you know get a
nice round number in there a nice prime number something that's easily divisible um and then
you know we'll look to readjust from there so you got some levels to play with here man you really do
any alts bro that you might be looking at when uh price goes to that level
uh to like below oh to buy you're talking about to buy. Like, okay. So I mentioned this, I think
on the spaces a few weeks ago, I don't want to commit myself to a specific name right now,
because what that's going to do is it's going to essentially put me and corner me into a box,
right? And I'm going to create a cognitive bias within the market that will not allow me to be
as fluid in regards to positioning
as I may want to be at that time. What does that mean? That means that I may become delusional
in buying that coin at that period where it might seem like a fantastic buy right now,
even though in the future when that time comes, it may not be, but I've already predetermined and
been predeterministic in buying that. And that
may not be an opportune asset to be allocated into. So I want to give myself some time and wait
if we do see those prices and just have a look at the market and see what is presenting opportunity.
For a buy side opportunity here, locally speaking, if you buy, if we break out of 90.5, I actually think Solana and XRP are fantastic buys here.
I think that you have a lot of stacked highs coming down that we've had since, you know, on Solana from 140 down to where we're at.
And I think that those stops and those, I think those stops and those levels and those highs could be aggressively hunted.
Same with XRP.
The structures are almost identical.
And at the same time, if you lose the low on BTC, I mean, it's kind of, you know, I think there's opportunity on either side of the trade.
But with that being said, like the TP levels, I'm not going to I'm not really going to talk about.
I'm not going to, you know, I mean, it is what it is, you know, you're, you're in the discord or you're not,
but with that being said, um, you know, hyper liquid, I think was a fantastic buy. Um, I still
think is a fantastic buy or even from a trade up to about 30 bucks, uh, maybe a little bit higher,
maybe up into 33. Um, I just think, you know, truly that I would be very, very, very shocked if we do not see some
form of, you know, backfill of inefficiencies, retesting of value, you know, testing the short
sides or the short, you know, the shorts within this market, you know, very, very, very rarely
in any market do you see a trade go one way. Usually that there's, you know, very, very, very rarely in any market do you see a trade go one way.
Usually that there's, you know, pit stops along the way, you know, rest points, and you can get
in and you can get out. We'll see if we get that. I mean, I get the weakness structurally we have
in regards to equities, but I mean, that truly, guys, can only last so long.
It really truly can only last so long, right?
There is a lot of cross-collateralization between all the different assets.
And, you know, crypto is a liquidity-sensitive one.
And so if you see liquidity entering in a meaningful way,
crypto is going to do very, very, very well.
Let's not forget that.
So that's kind of what I got.
I feel you on that, man.
Everyone wants to forget about crypto until crypto is a thing to talk about, bro.
History doesn't impede itself, but it often rhymes.
Everyone's talking about silver when no one was talking about silver for a long time.
By long time, I mean basically since before a lot of us were even born.
Silver hasn't been trending since the 80s, since the late 70s.
But, Phantom, what's up, bro?
What are your thoughts on the market going into the end of the year, man?
Yo, you hear me?
Yeah, loud and clear, man. Yeah, what's's up man um i'm out here doing your artwork
so if i sound a little weird um but what's it called so love love the analysis by prometheus
to be honest i agree with like pretty much all that sentiment with with bitcoin um but
like i kind of disagree with the points that no one was talking about silver
um i don't want to flex but i was calling silver at like 32 33 dollars so i hit on that trade and
the way it just kind of lays over with bitcoin is i actually sold half my bitcoin position
and i'm kind of going in on this commodities run super bullish on copper and uranium due to the
whole energy crisis thing so i'm loading up that, locked in some profits on silver,
and actually rolling some over to like the miners because I do think they're
lagging a bit. Yeah, honestly, regarding Bitcoin,
ever since the Epstein emails came out where I don't know if these emails are
true and stuff, ever since I saw Epstein and his boys were in on Bitcoin early,
that honestly hit me pretty hard in terms of my personal thesis with Bitcoin.
So actually, it ended up being positive for me because it was at around 100K.
At that point, I sold around half my position.
And I'm kind of waiting.
You know, if Bitcoin ends up bouncing, going all-time high ripping, I'm already exposed.
I've been in since 6K.
So, like, it's fine if I don't end up buying more at these levels.
And if it dips i am ready i do think
that 75 74k area is personally for pure chart analysis technical perspective is going to be
major support and if we do go below that 75k hold below i am pretty bearish um more longer term
and then regarding altcoins um obviously soul and xrp are pretty
haven't hit pretty hard so if the market does bounce i think
hey did he rug y'all did he rug or is it just spaces, yo. Yo, my bad.
Sorry, I'm getting a call.
I might get another one, too.
But XMR Monero is the only altcoin that I've actually liked recently and I've actually been buying.
It's a win-win.
When Bitcoin does bad, it does good.
It has no bear case.
It's not listed on any L1s anyways.
Not L1s.
T1 exchanges.
Since it's been delisted since binance has been up only slow grind
combined with the privacy meta um i am bullish on xmr and that's probably the only altcoin to
actually hold um like outside of bitcoin um and i mentioned to you in terms of memes i mentioned
to you wojack last time we were talking when it was at like five or six mil that ended up going to 50 or 60 mil um sitting at 25 and that structure still looks good i actually
do like uh wojack is like the only meme coin i actually do hold and um maybe buy more of that's
kind of where i'm at loading up on copper looking at silver to see how i'll play that locked in
profits on that and i am bullish on commodities in the upcoming years
because commodity cycles only come once every few,
like I think in the past 100 years, every century,
they come two or three times.
I've been watching a lot of boomer videos
talking about these commodity cycles.
And they're very slow.
Although silver's been going crazy.
Overall, compared to Bitcoin and crypto,
it's a very slow cycle that happens could take 10 20
years of slow grind up across metals and other commodities so really looking at that really like
copper specifically um but I don't want to take up too much time talking about that now you're good
bro yo did you see this drop in palladium dude it dropped like 25 man man. Yeah. These metals are acting like shit coins.
Yeah, but that's the thing is palladium and platinum, stuff like that,
their thesis isn't that strong and has as good of a thesis as something like silver or gold.
Because silver has that precious metal aspect,
but palladium and platinum, the use cases aren't there as much as everything else.
As everyone should know, the top three most conductive elements are silver number one, copper number two, gold number three.
So all these solar panels, all the high-end electronics use silver.
They need silver.
Platinum, and this is kind of rolls over with the copper or like overlaps with the copper thesis is when silver and gold send, there's a high amount of above ground supply sitting in vaults, sitting in people's houses.
Normies hold silver and gold.
So when supply goes or demand goes up and the prices rise, there is a lot of above ground supply that can meet that.
But for other metals like copper, platinum or palladium or whatever,
they don't have, people aren't just sitting on those metals.
So when the price goes up, it normally sends really hard
because there's not a lot of above ground supply to just slow it down.
So that's why I'm interested in copper because of its use
in like technological infrastructure, data centers,
this new energy focused world that we're entering
in this next decade, two decades,
copper is going to be super needed.
So when that does break out and have a parabolic move,
it could be very violent.
So that's why I'm looking at.
My commodities position is currently like 50% copper
and then probably 25% silver, 25% uranium.
That's kind of where I'm at.
I feel you, man.
Bro, do you think SPX ever makes an all-time high again?
MirageCoin?
I haven't been looking at charts at all for that.
But, dude, I just think memes and crypto are cooked right now.
The question is going to be when, like,
get-rich-quick opportunities come again in crypto.
You know, 2017 ICOs, 2021 NFTs,
the recent cycle of meme coins, as we all know.
The question will be, is it meme coins again or is it something else if it's
meme coins again and the spx community is still there then yeah it has a possibility of hitting
all-time highs the big question will be when does the liquidity come when is it get rich quick
opportunity come and will it be meme coins those are kind of the main questions um all my normies
that are asking oh what should I buy and shit like the advice i give at this point
is there are no get rich quick opportunities in this market currently this is a time of portfolio
management and wealth management like if you did make money on the cycle last time don't lose it
position yourself in safe safe environments where you can make at best like a 2x in a year like a
silver that's the best performing asset this year, essentially.
Like whatever meme coins you bought that maybe go on 10X.
Like I got a 20X on Wojak,
but I won't say it performed better than silver.
You know, if we're talking realistically,
like if we're playing with high amount of,
you know, liquidity and stuff.
So right now it's just about wealth preservation,
wealth management, and then SPX.
We'll have to see if meme coins come back.
I do think they are the most likely to be, like, the get-rich-quick opportunity.
I can't imagine anything else replacing them, but that's kind of where I'm at with those.
Dog, isn't it crazy, bro, how, like, Aster wasn't even 90 days ago?
It was literally a few weeks ago man and like dude everyone was printing on
aster pump avantis metadow and yeah that's like oh yeah yeah like cool silver's breaking out
gold is breaking out there's no way i'm gonna like switch over to boomer assets and then here
we go bro in two months silver basically pulls off an altcoin run
especially if you buy any miners um or any call options on those miners man i think people really
um i think they underestimate the amount of gains you can make and the equity markets because yeah
the money is real dude the liquidity is is actually real man yeah I agree
and like you talk to any crypto head and they're like oh silver only double that's nothing in their
mind but dude no one's actually buying spot silver you know anyway especially if you're coming from
crypto you're buying a bunch of contracts leaps hopefully never buy short-term contracts and like
dude that's you you will make meme contact money on
that type shit not gonna lie yeah do you know who toge toge is the the fitness influencer guy
yeah dude he uh he bought some uh he bought some s&p like zero days or something like that not zero
days i think like short-term call options yeah like a two-week expiry um because
his boy told him to buy the s p because stocks only go up into the right bro and he basically
got blown out of his position and it's like when people actually listen to someone say that they
bought stocks they think they're just buying spot like spot nvidia like nah bro everyone's mind
contracts when there's a reason why like the options market is like the most lucrative uh vehicle to make money in our generation man
that's the one big mistake i made when i got into uh stocks like probably about like five six years
ago um i was i mean i still knew i was paying my market tuition trying to trade and stuff
and the biggest thing i realized is dude these short-term contracts are just not worth it.
Like the weekly expiration, unless you're like heavy in the money, it's just not worth it.
Like, because every single play I had, like the ones I pan out are the ones I bought like leaps for.
So all my silver contracts, all my copper, they expire in either early 2027 or ideally in 2028.
Because, like, I don't know how
long it'll take, but I'm, like, 90%.
My conviction is probably 90% out of 100
that copper will go up
and to the right over the next 5-10 years, you know?
So if I can buy a contract
as far out as possible, I'm buying
that, you know? Obviously, I got some spot
as well with it, but
dude, I never recommend anyone getting short-term contracts it's just i've never seen someone
successful with that you know even if they are it just it depends yeah i mean it depends it's like
because most people we talk options most people are buying the options right uh most people aren't
doing you know structured doing, you know,
structured trades, like, you know, option strategies, whether you're doing like spread
strangles, yada, yada, yada. I mean, there's ways to build out strategies for those. But yeah,
I mean, the short term, like buying two week options, like, oh, I think it's going to go
to $50. So I'm buying the $50 expiration. That is not how you trade options.
Yeah.
Another thing, especially after trading crypto,
is like, dude, the charts happen quicker.
The TA happens much quicker in crypto.
So when you go back to stocks and equities,
like, the pattern is there
it's honestly a matter of patience like and there's so much more there's not the fear of oh
what if the dev runs what if the the top holder nukes like when you see a good structure on a
like i don't know stock like apple bro nine out of nine times like nine out of ten times it's
going to perform the structure that you predict you you know? It's just a matter of actually being patient,
actually seeing out the trade and being like,
having a conviction to hold through it.
So that's the way I view it.
It's like, bro, up until easy money comes,
like meme coin mania comes again,
that's where the opportunity is.
The practice and all the charts you looked at
during the meme coin cycle, go use it
in a market that's been here for centuries in a market that has like a thousand times more
liquidity and they respect some more dude I actually think man that people that know how
to trade in Solana can move over to equities and absolutely kill it bro exactly and i mean like actually trade on chain not this like fnf group type stuff
where they get into like two to three mil toppers i mean like you saw the whiff trade you saw the ai
trade you saw icm you saw the like the revenue generating shit that happened in October, November with Avishi and stuff like that.
Bro, if you can take that edge over to equities, man, you will kill it in robotics.
Yeah.
I actually got a deal flown to Aptronics.
I think it's at like $4 or $5 billion market cap.
The issue with robotics, I'm really bullish on humanoid robotics.
A lot of people I respect have a big chunk of their net worth in it.
But they're all private markets, which is a different game.
Like back in the day, back in the day, companies had to go public to get the funding that they need or to get the exit liquidity they need.
Now there's so much money in private markets, they don't need to go public.
You see open AIs at like 400, 500 billion market cap already. liquidity they need now there's so much money in private markets they don't need to go public you
see open ai's at like 400 500 billion market cap already bro open ai is so fucking cooked by the
way yeah they are so cooked but my point is like there's a lot of opportunities that people don't
even hear about because it's like you need to know basis like you got to know somebody that knows somebody had access to it bro but like if you
got access to open ai at 50 billion market cap when it was so obvious that it was going to be
the winning the winning like like um ai search engine that's the freest money ever you know
whether or not you believe it long term whether or not you think it's oversold that's still an
opportunity there so there's like important money to be made in the private market.
It's just like you have to know people's issue.
But luckily, I met a guy through Discord that actually accepts stable coins.
Their hedge fund accepts stable coins.
And I'm kind of bullish on Aptronics.
They're doing cubanoid robotics and they're not focused on like the retail at home robots like um figure or tesla optimuses
they're more focused on the industrial side of things like getting them in factories which i
personally think is more bullish um they're already partnered with google and mercedes-benz and stuff
so i got i got them through uh through some stable coins i had sitting so we'll see how that pans out
but i do i'm very bullish on robotics
dude i hope you print man i hope you print my my brother in coin um dude during these like
slow times in the market there's always something to do i mean if you just like look at 2022
first few months of 22 you could have printed on cosmos eco stuff um and months of 2022, you could have printed on Cosmos, EcoStuff, and also NFTs.
You could have also bought the lows on 3AC when they blew out and caught in things like Matic and ETH for triple-digit gains to the upside.
You could have bought in Doge as well and gotten like 120% gain from those lows up until October.
20% gain from those lows up until October.
And just fucked off after August.
Come back late 2022, bond those lows and have huge upside for the first months of 23,
which I think people really underestimated how much we would pump off of those lows.
And looking back, dude, like if you look at the moves that were done the first few weeks of 2023,
they were insane bro
sold went from 80 bucks to 30 dollars in like two and a half weeks two weeks i think yeah like
week and a half two weeks something like that um btc omega pumped from like 15k to 25k in a couple
of weeks um you also had things like abdos doing ax, Kanto did a 10x, Optimism did pretty well also.
So there's always a bull market.
There's always upside to play.
And even if you didn't play crypto for the first half of 22, if you were a four-cycle believer, you could have bought an oil.
You could have bought some oil calls and printed off of that.
When it comes to the long side, there is always an opportunity.
More than people know, man.
More than people know.
And I think that's where I thrive.
Playing some long ops.
Yeah, bro.
The thesis is simple.
They keep putting more money.
Where is that money going to go?
Just find yourself in the middle of it.
Keep your head on a swivel.
The same way that we keep telling people stay multi-chain.
People who are soul maxis or eth maxis. people who are east maxis miss the soul pump and like yo you gotta
stay multi-chain be ready for all the money it's the same shit you can't be like locked in on crypto
the whole time you gotta stay multi multi-market you know um that's actually kind of something i'm
waiting for and why i did like astro when it came out was like, dude, I need a one-stop shop,
non-KYC
leverage trading platform
that has all the markets.
I want to be able to trade crypto,
commodities, and stocks on one platform.
You know, and whoever comes up
with that and perfects it is going to
be a top-ten coin for sure.
Whether or not...
What?
Like hyperliquid Like Hyperliquid?
Hyperliquid.
Yeah, I mean, the thing is, there's a lot of competition.
One Hyperliquid, you still need a VPN.
That's true.
You need, like, Edge.
EdgeX is already out.
They have an app in the App Store.
Hyperliquid doesn't have that.
So, yeah, I mean, I agree.
Hyperliquid is first mover.. So yeah, I mean, I agree. Hyperliquid is first mover.
They have the advantage, best UI,
but the market really needs that.
And they still don't have,
I still can't buy copper on there.
So I can't buy uranium.
It only has like six stocks.
So that's going to be interesting to look at.
And then I pinned a tweet to the top
comparing XMR chart to silver.
I think XMR is going to be ones
that really surprise people when it gets parabolic xmr is going to be ones that really
surprise people um when it gets parabolic and it's gonna look really obvious in hindsight but
i've been watching xmr for like eight years now and it's by far the most stable coin
i've ever seen phantom you know what uh xmr chart looks like what it looks like copper their charts are almost identical
you know copper copper is just slowly like trickling to all-time high and then once people
kind of see it and like i said they don't have above ground supply for copper and these miners
take like 10 to 20 years to get functioning so like when they move they never see the same prices
again you see that with gold you know when gold, you know you'll never see gold below like,
I don't know, $3,000 an ounce, you know?
yeah, it's going to be interesting. I'm really
glad I sold half my Bitcoin position.
It's sad. It broke my heart
because I've been buying it
nonstop since 6K. So,
selling it definitely hurt, but I'm glad I did.
And now it's like, oh, it's a win-win it goes down i'll buy back goes up i got exposure you know i think it's the best place to
be all right nothing wrong with making money brother yeah nothing wrong with that i'm really
interested to see there's a lot of rumors about gold and silver backed treasuries.
I don't know too much about that, but I've been hearing a lot about it.
And honestly, this move on gold and silver is like unnatural, something we've never seen before.
So I think there is something happening.
like a listen to some boomer stuff the same July 4th a month after you know Trump replaces the
the Federal Reserve chair replaces Jerome Powell there's supposed to be I don't know what the the
press conference is on July 4th that the president does but some boomers are predicting that they'll
announce like gold and silverback treasuries or some shit like that which will be a very
unfortunate for Bitcoin
because a lot of these Bitcoin maxis,
part of their thesis is like hoping that eventually
we'll start doing Bitcoin back treasuries, you know?
So it'll be very interesting.
Hey, Louie, what's up, man? How are you?
I'm good, Wabi. What's going on, man? How we doing?
I'm still eating your eggs?
Yeah, feel free to give some of your thoughts on the market, man.
Oh, we usually start with egg talk.
Yeah, no eggs.
No eggs, man.
Damn.
Couldn't handle the testosterone, huh?
It'll get you.
I'm just playing.
Yeah, markets.
Let's talk markets.
Bitcoin doing the same thing it's been doing for the last month and a half.
It's clear that there's heavy sell pressure on Bitcoin still.
We talked about that a lot.
I was one of the last people on our team to kind of flip cautious to bearish when we lost 100K.
But that's still, you know, although I felt late at the time,
like a month and a half ago, still very much glad that I did that when I did
because it's just been a shit market, you know.
Every little pump, every little squeeze at a Bitcoin,
you know, we're seeing just get hammered hard, right?
Like even last night, once again, seeing a nice little Sunday night pump on the daily
open and just getting absolutely hammered.
They're looking at the daily candle now.
It's just all wick, right?
So I am expecting more downside for Bitcoin, right?
Unless they can miraculously save it.
Right now, the high timeframe trend is to the downside, right? We have a ton,
a ton of stacked lows below us from here where we sit now all the way down to 80K.
Most of the time, I'd say about 90% of the time, those lows get taken out if Bitcoin is going to put in a bottom, right? So it's no guarantee Bitcoin can do what it wants.
But, you know, we see almost time and time again,
you know, those stacked lows get taken out,
whether even just a sweep it alone, right?
So I'm not dead set on where I think Bitcoin goes.
I mean, I have an idea.
I do like the high 60K, low 70K range,
like anywhere from 66K to like 71, 72K.
We got massive, massive support there.
Going back to our eight-month consolidation
in the middle of last year,
as well as your 2021 all-time high,
your double top.
So you do want to see that hold, right?
So if we do see continuation, right, which like the last month and a half, I know lower
timeframe, you know, it kind of looks like a bounce, right?
I think we got like maybe a 15% bounce off the width low to the high to around 94, 95
94, 95 K. Um, we're, we're now well below that. Um, you know, either a, I think we could easily
We're now well below that.
sweep these lows below us. Um, everyone trying to call bottom, you know, not everyone, right.
But there are definitely people out there, um, take out anyone who's been trying to long,
uh, in the middle of nowhere, which I think we are right now, gets taken out. And then we look for
buying opportunities, right? So I am looking for a quicker recovery. It's one thing that,
you know, a lot, even us on the team kind of differentiate on, just because of how this cycle
went, right? We never got a euphoric top out of Bitcoin. That was very clear. That was something
I was waiting for. We never got the quote unquote alt season out of Bitcoin. That was very clear. That was something I was waiting for.
We never got the quote unquote alt season. Do we ever get one again? I think so. I think it's
just going to be more of a picker's market where like the last guy who was just speaking mentioned
like projects that offer like real world use case, whether it's like a hyper liquid exchange or
whatever. And I think we can get that coming out of this downturn just because one, we never really
saw a tide that lifts all boats in that market, as well as we never really saw euphoric top for
Bitcoin. One thing to know and one thing that I've expressed a concern on is the equity
markets. That's kind of the canary in the coal mine for me. Obviously been very strong, right?
Three-year bull market in equities. S&P actually made a fresh all-time high last week.
But what a lot of people are missing here, I think, is that S&P strength over the last three years has been led by only a handful of stocks, whether it's like the MAG-7.
And a lot of those stocks look vulnerable for downside to me, right?
So the stocks that led the rallies in equities, complete, complete unbalance in the weight, we can see some unwind in that, right? If we do get
some sort of market scare, or some rollover in equities, and people start selling that much
stronger than what we're seeing now, you know, that's going to pull back equities. And if equities
are finally starting to pull back right when Bitcoin at least is attempting to bottom here,
I don't see a world where the equity market does that,
and we see Bitcoin and altcoins bounce from here, right? So can it happen? Absolutely.
They could easily continue to melt up equities, remain strong. We've seen time and time again,
where the equity markets can remain resilient and strong much longer than most people think.
However, I'm still skeptical, right? We
talked about this morning, Prometheus mentioned, you know, seeing the S&P sustain above 7,000,
it would be a positive sign. That's kind of something I'd be looking for if I were to flip
on my bias as far as equities and even crypto are concerned. So if we see something like that,
we see a sustained push going into early next year,
S&P can hold on to its new all-time high,
continue to march higher,
I think there's a great chance
we could see a sustained bounce and rally
out of Bitcoin in certain altcoins.
But until then, I'm still very cautious here.
We could be looking at a potential all-time high sweep
last week, which is something
I've been talking to Discord a lot where, you know,
fresh all-time highs on the S&P is not always a good thing, right?
If you look back to the last like two major tops in the S&P,
it made a slight all-time high, failed to continue and rally off of that,
and then ultimately ended up starting a
multi-month downtrend off of that fresh all-time high so when you're seeing the equity markets
slow down um which we have been like s p has been pretty much ranging for the last two months it's
not in a strong uptrend um where you see just continued high after continued high it has been
stalling it has been ranging not that it can't break higher from that but just like looking back at the data looking
back at the charts like every time you kind of see the trend slow down stagnate and range sideways
and it makes a fresh all-time high like we saw last week um nine out of ten times it's a trap
right so still concerned about potential weakness in the equity markets you know pretty much based
on the fact that a lot of these mag seven7 stocks, these mega cap stocks that have been leading the rally, do look a little weak.
Can they be saved? Absolutely.
And I'll be happy to flip long in equities and crypto if I see that.
Because if that's the case and they're going to melt everything up from here, like a lot of people think.
If that's the case and they're going to melt everything up from here, like a lot of people think, you know, we got tons of runway and tons of time and tons of stocks and crypto that are sitting at value prices.
But the risk is if you're bidding them now, which, you know, I have a funny feeling a lot of people in crypto over the last couple of months said, screw crypto.
Equities are in a strong bull run.
I missed it.
You know, I'm going to sell all my crypto and go buy equities are in a strong bull run i missed it you know i'm going to sell all my crypto
and go buy equities here uh you know they can be setting themselves up for a possible uh
double screw right kind of like a double where they got screwed in crypto they go over to equities
or uh these commodities like gold and silver that have been strong and they end up buying the top
into that and losing even more money so i would just express caution in all markets right now, right? I feel like the risk is to the downside,
more so in equities, right? Like a lot of altcoins are coming into areas where I don't hate DCAing a
bit. But again, if you see the slightest scare or rollover in the major indexes and equities,
one, it's going to be very difficult for Bitcoin and altcoins to sustain a
balance or a rally. And two, you know,
it's just downside risk in an equity market where a lot of people think it is
only goes up. Right. So just cautious, right. Just cautious. You know,
I have some short positions on some stocks.
You know, those are more dated for like the next couple of months. That's kind of my thesis. If like the stock market doesn't roll in the next couple of months, I think there's a chance it
can just continue to melt up. So, you know, kind of a shorter dated outlook as to, you know,
we see some downturn in the equity markets relatively soon in the next couple of months.
some some downturn in the equity markets relatively soon in the next couple months
and coming out of that right you know we see the new fed come in we you know if that's occurring
you know something broke or some black swan event occurred um you know they turn on the money
printer and in that environment um you know should prove great uh for crypto as well so
just kind of waiting for that so it's either going to happen or it's not. And in my opinion, you're better off waiting for some more confirmation one way or the
other just before stepping in front of either a downtrend or buying the highs in an equity market.
So kind of my thoughts there. Well, I think it's a great time to wrap up.
Man, I think we need Big Hagrid for the market to come back.
I think with that team meeting we had, I forgot to add one of my goals, right?
We had a team meeting.
And, I mean, everyone kind of agreed on the same thing
everyone wants a field trip uh some people want to go camping um some people want to go
uh to australia like prometheus wants to go to australia bro what are you talking about he he
he wants to go what we're gonna do is're going to take Wabi out in the woods.
And he's going to go camping for the first time.
You want to take me out to the woods?
No, no, no.
I did not take you out to the woods.
No, bro.
Absolutely not.
Absolutely not.
No, we want to take you out to the woods.
There's woods.
There's no HED at the end of that.
Dude, I know what you guys want to do you
guys want to go out in the woods and play raid the darkness that's what you guys want to do
no i don't even know what that is you didn't you know what raid the darkness is bro
big this is all false false statements and false claims well anyways guys anyways, guys, um,
I think that about wraps it up here,
man.
And,
price action is probably going to suck for the rest of the week.
To be honest,
for majors,
there's always something happening on chain,
which I guess,
like,
I think that's like the,
the,
the main takeaway from today's show,
despite,
despite crabby slash crappy trading PA for majors, there's always something happening on-chain.
Even if the ceilings aren't as high as they used to be, there's always something happening.
But like Phantom said, right, a 20x move or 30x move on something on chain, you can't really size into that compared to something in the equity markets.
Like the move that silver has had over the last couple of weeks since crypto has kind of been doing nothing, really.
AI echo bubble in late October early November it's only it's only been like a handful of names that have done anything
Starting with the Vichy and a couple of other ones
White whale has done some insane stuff over the last few days, but that's about it
That's about it from us y'all feel free to follow everyone up here fall because Bitcoin account
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With that being said, peace out, guys.
See you all at the same time tomorrow.
God bless you.
Peace.
Insights
P
