Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you Thank you. . Thank you. here they claim perfection these massive flame retention oh, oh, oh, oh
oh oh oh I and press Oh You carry on All you care All you care
All you care All you care Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Thank you. music Thank you. I Oh, yeah. Overloads of heart and stumbles, keep me from that heavy road.
All alone, I feel so humble, but I don't want your pride.
All you've been dying, all you care.
All you've been dying, all you care.
All you've been dying, all you've been dying.
Dying in the dark, pain. Oh I'm going to go. Hey, what's going on guys?
Welcome back to market talk man x is uh really being extremely
buggy today guys um i don't know what's going on pretty much for like the last couple of sessions
outside of maybe like two since we started this new time slot it's been extremely buggy but
either way glad uh this thing can
actually start up man uh hopefully as i've been saying over the last few shows there can actually
be a separate app for this thing kind of like how grok had its own thing but uh welcome back to
market talk guys we have the iwm making new highs s p 500 also uh 6,900 plus, which that's kind of been the memetic number for the S&P for a while.
I think on the last show yesterday, we had Prometheus mention how that was a target that David Hunter put for the S&P about two and a half years ago.
We had him on our YouTube show Market Check back in May of 2023, I believe.
And that was his original target for late 2024.
And here we are about a year after that target.
And I think we're in a very interesting situation.
We have both the IWM and also the S&P 500 hitting new all-time highs right after the Federal Reserve cuts rates.
The last couple of FOMCs, though, at least for crypto, have been a bit bearish.
But we'll see how price action pans out.
It's usually about a week, week and a half tops when we start seeing price action having some resolution
um honestly crypto is kind of uh crypto is kind of um shoppy right now um whereas the equity markets
are showing some signs of life um again i i i i believe i touched upon this yesterday and the show before that, but it's a very similar market to what we saw in 2019, specifically during the second half where you had the Fed ending quantitative tightening.
And what ended up happening was you had the equity markets rally like crazy while crypto basically did did nothing
you had BTC ranging from like what was it 7,000 to 11,000 for months and months
while the indices just melted up I think the caveat is you have the IWM breaking
out and over the last few years it's kind of just been in this weird range where anytime
it would hit macro range highs at 220 to 240 right around that area, it would stall out,
distribute, and then go back down to like sub 200. And there are some correlations,
there have been some correlations with the IWM and the broader crypto market.
It's just due to some events that have occurred lately in crypto, specifically what happened on October 10th, about two months ago, where you had a bunch of market makers basically having their books cleaned.
That does take some time for that to have some resolution.
If you even take a look at the COVID crash, the yearly high of 2020,
right before the COVID crash happened, was right at about 10.5K.
And we didn't break through that until a couple of months after that. I think it was like three months or so.
Yeah, about 90 to 100 days after the COVID crash.
That's when we actually started, you know, what you would call the bull market, right?
The halving year, where historically things do tend to go quite well if you're positioned for upside.
And you'll probably give it a few more weeks in, in my opinion, but, uh, there have been some things on chain, um, some very interesting price action for some things on chain, but, uh, overall for majors, it's kind of just diddling in the middle right now. I guess you can call it lower time frame range highs at 94K BTC, 3300 ETH.
Sol is honestly probably one of the most horrendous looking charts.
I could see a bounce on Hyperliquid, though.
That is a chart where I can actually see it replicate something like a Farcoin, where Farcoin ended up rallying and kind of
giving some signal to the overall market.
And over the last 12 months, it's usually been things like Farcoin and Hyperliquid that
have given some signal to the altcoin market.
And I think if we start seeing some strength from hype, that's what I want to see.
I'd rather see strength from hype rather than solana for there to be some actual breadth in the market rather than just a few um select
tickers and i mean guys all we have to do is look at what happened earlier this year from
april to june and then from july to late august where you saw things like a hyperliquid take over as far as outperformance
within the majors, the top 50. And we all saw the market conditions that presented themselves.
It was quite well. It was quite well. Not as bullish as previous post-election or post-halving
years, whichever you want to decide to call it, whether it's a post-election year,
post-halving year. It definitely
wasn't as fruitful. We actually saw more dilution than anything. So even though we saw things like
Total 2 and Total 3 creep up, a lot of that value was driven up through dilution, through new
launches, through a lot of supply that comes into the market from proof of stake coins.
You do have coins that are valued in the tens of billions, if not hundreds of billions,
like an ETH that add supply into the market.
And I think the most important pair to look at would be others, BTC.
Anything else is just like a fugazi to be honest because you can have
things like like like a total two or a total three which is
primarily just uh usd valuation and market cap and think you're in a bull market when in reality
it's just a bunch of dilution right the pair is everything paired against BTC but guys happy to be here
with you I hope you're all having a fantastic day myself I've kind of been
on a small recovery day just drinking a lot of soup had a bit of a of a sore
throat yesterday and when I just went into the sauna steam room did a bit of a sore throat yesterday. And I just went into the sauna, steam room, did a bunch of cardio and to just sweat that out, man.
I refused to get sick before what I think is about to be some interesting volatility.
If you guys tuned into the FOMC yesterday, they're basically going to be doing the same thing that Janet Yellen did in October of 2022 as far as like treasury
buybacks and all that stuff.
I believe that starts in like the next week or so.
So despite this lower timeframe price action where essentially the entire pop that we had
going into FOMC got retraced, just take a look at the price action that occurred once
they announced those treasury
buybacks in October of 2022, right? The indices remained mostly flat after that. I believe the
S&P actually bottomed in late October of 2022. I think the NASDAQ, for the most part, finished
bottoming out going into early December, late November, if I'm not mistaking.
I think it bottoms right around the same time that Bitcoin did.
And then you had a few select companies have one more final puke in late December.
Things like Coinbase, Tesla, and Hood, those companies had one more puke.
Those companies had like one more puke.
And by early January, you started to see NVIDIA and basically all the mega cap tech names rally like crazy.
You had Jim Cramer cry on TV and all that stuff around Christmas time of 2022.
And then the market basically went up only after that FOMC.
It was a CPI reading that we saw in January.
I think it was like the second week of January, if I'm not mistaken.
And the only dip that happened early that year was that Silicon Valley Bank, Silver
And that lasted like a day or two.
And we basically be recovered over the
next two weeks. So you're just saying that we say here on the show, right? History doesn't
repeat itself, but it often rhymes. So I mean, whatever downside is supposed to be coming into
this market, we'll see, man. We'll see. But the environment for 2026, in my opinion, is leaning quite bullish.
And I think if you're in crypto, it honestly pays a lot more to be optimistic rather than
pessimistic, especially after huge liquidation events, right?
And here we are at the end of quarter four.
And, I mean, usually if you're going to be in a bear trend, right,
after these events, you always want to see some quick resolution to the downside so if within the next like week week and a half
we're not like below 85 or below 80 then i think for the most part everything is in the clear but
i'm here joined by max i'm not sure if the other guys are going to be joining us today but
so you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space before we officially get cooking for
you guys just click the spaces tab once you
guys do that you'll see the link right above our profile picture that says x.com slash i slash
spaces basically go ahead hit the like button hit the repost button guys it does a number of things
helps bring the show more onto the algorithm and all that good stuff so max what's going on brother iwm new all-time highs and we
also have uh the s&p hitting new all-time highs we actually have uh some uh some interesting
price action are you guys able to hear me i just got a text from prometheus saying is anyone talking
um actually you're able to hear me have i been yapping no no i can hear you i can hear you you're
good okay yeah i don't know what's up with x man like like i i really really really don't know
what's up with x man but uh yeah what are your what are your thoughts man we actually have some
positive price action um after the fomc And the last FOMCs have honestly been atrocious,
even for the equity markets.
I'm talking like the equity markets specifically.
There's just been this weird trend during the back half of this year
where FOMC has caused this mini bear trend.
And the IWM really looks like it's it's it's
actually in price discovery not these like little one to two point deviations from its previous
all-time high of uh february of uh 2021 man yeah good afternoon everybody wabi thanks for uh thanks for hosting as always man great intro
yeah it's um it's a really weird time to be in crypto because something is not exactly adding up
is what it seems like to me and maybe it all kind of goes back to October 10th when we saw that horrible,
horrible massacre where a lot of altcoins were down minus 70% to 99% in 15 minutes.
And maybe it just takes some time to recalibrate after that. But there's a lot of contradictions
in global markets right now where you know us small
caps are ripping the russell's at at new all-time highs um silver is just gig ascending right now
gold has done really well all year you know mag 7 you know blue chip companies have done really
really well all year so like the ugly duckling or you know whatever you want to
call it is crypto right like right on the year right not doing very well so the big question
that i sort of have right now is okay who's lying is crypto foreshadowing you know is crypto
foreshadowing what is uh you know, imminent with equity markets? And we know
that has been true in the past, where if the cycle is no different, measure, you know, duration from
bear market low to global cycle peak in previous cycles, what we've seen is Bitcoin has a bull
market for about 1,065 days, roughly. And it typically tops a couple of months before equity markets
roll over. But there's also some signs that I'm seeing that we're actually earlier stage cycle
than late stage, which is different, where we know that crypto performs really well when
access to capital is significantly cheaper, right? So we're getting rate cuts actively right now.
They're also transitioning from QT into QE,
or I guess like a state of neutral into QE here very, very soon.
I think maybe even tomorrow.
I can't remember the date, but regardless, soon.
So we're seeing some signs that like,
I mean, look, let's, let's put it this way,
like a business cycle, a risk, risk on cycle, a bull market typically doesn't end right
as cost of capital becomes cheaper and QE begins.
What we've seen more recently is quite the opposite.
Um, and that would make sense kind of given where altcoins are. But
Bitcoin looks, you know, to the trained and untrained eye, like it's already had a cycle.
Altcoins, not so much. So it's a bit confusing. You know, my big question mark is who's lying,
right? Like the big elephant in the room is like, is crypto lying and horribly undervalued and
suppressed given, you know, kind of global, the global backdrop?
Or, you know, is basically crypto just kind of foreshadowing global market weakness?
You know, like what, how's this going to resolve, right?
Like, how is this going to resolve?
Because I think somebody's lying. Things eventually kind of have to re-correlate. And what's also frustrating is
like, you know, silver and Bitcoin, not the most perfect correlation, but nonetheless have been
correlated in recent years. Our analyst, Jackis, has done some really phenomenal analysis,
in recent years. Our analyst, Jackus, has done some really phenomenal analysis talking about
how typically one will sort of foreshadow a move to a certain level or high timeframe pivot,
and then the other one will kind of slowly but surely catch up and kind of re-correlate. So
we're seeing like the perfect backdrop for risk to rally. U.S. small caps chatting,
Perfect backdrop for risk to rally.
U.S. small caps chatting.
U.S. small caps just absolutely chatting.
Cost of capital is going down.
So financial conditions are softening, right?
We're not seeing like the imminent recession indicators flashing, like the labor market
is still holding strong enough.
crypto should do well. It just sort of feels like there's some invisible overhang on crypto that is a little difficult to explain, right? So I think kind of where it lies for me is just
diving into like what the technicals look like, you know, where are the levels, where are the stubborn levels going to be for crypto, right?
Like where are the levels you need to maybe be careful around?
Where are the levels of, you know, discount and things of that sort, but trying not to overtrade and also recognizing that even if we are going to go down, you know, nothing goes down in a straight line and you can get some really
intense squeezes along the way. So we'll dive in more during the space, I'm sure, to kind of like
where we think price will go and things like that. But yeah, somebody's lying. It seems like to me
either US equities are lying and the strength is not going to last that much longer, or crypto's
horribly undervalued here, which is a tremendous opportunity.
But it is a little bit confusing to see crypto just not really behaving how you would expect,
given what other markets are doing.
Yeah, seeing silver, Chad, I think it's up like almost 120% year to date.
It's honestly a sight to behold.
And they call Ethereum digital silver.
That was the narrative in late 2017 when the ICO boom was at its peak.
It was called digital silver, man, where bitcoin is like the gold of the digital
asset space eth is the silver and we're not exactly seeing that right now but the the crypto
catch-up trade always happens in in like a weekly or two weekly candles um or if you really want to be aggressive with it a few three-day
candles usually like three to four and i mean if you remember max remember the price action
in the summer of uh of 2024 where crypto as a collective didn't really do much
and nvidia and hood were rallying like crazy do you remember that and then do you remember the
price action that happened after that september fomc going into october and then crypto started
to have its catch-up trade and by the election everyone wanted to be in crypto so i think i i
think that's kind of uh kind of where we're at right now.
But also something to take note of is prediction markets are getting a lot of attraction, a ton of attraction.
I think now, like, I saw it online, but, like, there's a bet right now in Polymarket where you can bet on Bitcoin going to 80K by the end of the year.
So it's like a strategy can be to bet on Polymarket to the downside and then long on perps and call yourself a sophisticated investor that goes delta neutral.
delta neutral um but uh i mean i can see why people would rather just go on prediction markets
than try to go on these scammy exchanges and um and have a 10 10 happen to them i i can see exactly
why but um how the the how are the the vfp indicators going right now max you said they're
they're starting to lean as you said uh I think it was like two weeks ago.
You said they're leaning slightly optimistic, man.
So when does it go from slightly optimistic to overly optimistic?
It's a great question. For those that don't know what Wabi just said, we have spent the past little over a year now developing some trading bots or trading algos here at BB.
I guess I kind of classify them as like swing trade-focused strategies.
Those are kind of the primary ones where they might take a trade every, some of them every week, maybe more like every 10 to 14 days on average.
So it depends how you want to classify swing trade, right?
But kind of slower moving.
They're not scalping necessarily.
And they do quite well over a long period of time.
You know, for this cycle, the main Bitcoin one is, you know, it's got a win rate of, you know,
55 to 58%, depending on how you determine the beginning of the cycle. You know, it's beating Bitcoin from low to high in a long, short strategy of beating
it by like, you know, 40, 40%, 50%, uh, better than what Bitcoin's done.
And it's only had a max drawdown of about 10% this whole cycle.
And it's at kind of a fork in the road right now where it is trying to flip back to risk on, but it is not risk on yet.
So I don't want to be too premature and being like bottoms in, we're good to go. Like,
let's do this thing. Um, because it might end up not flipping back. Right. But we are right at that level of like, we are almost back to risk on,
but again, it's not quite there yet. So I think caution is maybe still,
caution is still a little bit warranted here, you know, it's looking for a trend.
There's something going on in the background from like a positioning standpoint where it's trying to flip back to risk on.
So I think we'll know more in like a week to 10 days.
And, you know, the bot will just kind of like long and short and try to wait for the
trend to prevail based on lower timeframe, you know, flows.
But yeah, it's really interesting to see
because either this is going to end,
either we're kind of dead cap bouncing
into what's going to be a shoulder
and we're going to know that pretty soon,
or we really are about to have a major catch-up trade
to what US small caps are doing
and we could really have a lot of fun.
So I will update you guys, you know,
further on, on what that looks like. But as of right now, it's not, um, you know, it is,
it is not exactly risk on, but it's, it's really not fully risk off either. It's just kind of
waiting. So that's more or less like my view of this market is like probably pays to just be a
little bit patient here. And if you miss a couple percent,
you know, even 5% to the upside, it's not the end of the world. Because if we really are going to
get some upside here, it's probably going to last for a while. There's going to be plenty of it.
You won't really care too much. But if we get downside, you know, having a little bit of extra
cash and just protecting yourself, you protecting yourself will feel really nice.
Right now, the catch-up trade, I mean, if we just simply take a look at the IWM,
on the monthly, Max, oh my goodness, man, on the monthly, IWM looks exactly how Bitcoin did when it blasted through 70,000 right after the election.
They almost look identical.
saying and you know i saw a lot of the macro guys that literally live on twitter spaces
say like all the iwm hasn't mattered uh in in years it's all about the s&p 500 well
the s&p 500 is in price discovery and i'm thinking like what happens to majors once you start seeing that gap up of it's usually like five to seven to eight percent.
Whenever the S&P has those breakouts where it breaks above its previous high.
So the previous high for the S&P is right around 6,800.
is right around 6800 what happens when you start to see that five percent plus gap up
as you've seen during previous times over the last three years where sometimes crypto lags behind
right usually you need some some some some wave of of uh of uh of upside well past well past its
all-time high usually it's five or seven as I said. And then you start seeing crypto catch up.
And right now, just from the pairs alone, the S&P and BTC,
BTC should theoretically be close to $130K right now.
And if we just look at the moves that gold has had this year uh or nvidia in 2024
it wouldn't shock me if if btc has a catch-up trade um when it starts to move within like two
weeks right just just just remember guys that bitcoin earlier this, when it had that drawdown of 74K, it made a new all time high in a matter of weeks.
In a matter of weeks, man.
So I know you said this before, right?
Like sometimes crypto is looked at as the ugly duckling, right?
or like the ugly stuff child or whatever but it's like that until it's not man and honestly like
Or like the ugly stuff child or whatever.
But it's like that until it's not, man.
when no one wants to be a part of crypto and like engagement is down numbers are down and all that
stuff the signal is typically a lot more clear man i think i think there are more people that
have left um than those that complain like i i think engagement is just down because people
like the tourists have have just walked away and usually when that happens there's something
brewing uh in in in the uh not too distant future so i don't know man dude do i sound like bullish
cope max am i like the the the bullish guy that's like just trying to cope?
No, no, no. I mean, I think you're pretty level-headed about it.
And something you said is very true.
Like crypto is kind of the ugly duckling until suddenly it's not, and then it's the greatest thing ever.
thing ever. So something that I think everybody needs to be aware of is even if you are bearish
on crypto or think maybe we go lower, I think kind of given what's going on with other assets
right now, and crypto is clearly, again, the ugly duckling. It's the only one that, you know, is really standing out as underperforming and just not
behaving how you'd expect.
This is an asset class that time and time again has proven people bears, pessimistic
So this is why I choose to, even if I'm a little bit cautious, remain exposed to this
Sorry, I have a phone call.
It has coming back from the absolute ugliest possible technical setups, right?
Or the most grim, bearish, you know, whatever it may be.
So I think you're onto something for sure. I really do.
I think you just need to watch closely here because I keep going back to this, like somebody
is lying here, like either crypto is truly undervalued here. And I mean by a lot.
is truly undervalued here. And I mean, by a lot. Or crypto is, again, like it's done in the past,
you know, kind of foreshadowing some downside in global markets. But
yeah, it's just such a weird time. And also, then you have this other kind of
dark overhang of this four-year cycle. Like once again, Bitcoin tops,
you know, October, you know, which is like 1,064 days from the bear market low, which is what it's
done in the previous couple cycles. So I mean, I'll tell you this, like if we somehow recover
from here and like Bitcoin catches up with small caps and we really are kind of like early cycle rather than late cycle. And we're about to see,
you know, cost of capital drop and, you know, cost of capital is going to drop and QE is coming back
and small caps are going to rip. And, you know, we're going to see a major bull market here across the board,
then if the four-year cycle is dead for Bitcoin,
I mean, your targets are not high enough, right? I don't think that we can possibly overstate
what a new all-time high for Bitcoin from right here would actually imply, right? Because that would mean
that the four-year cycle is effectively dead. That would mean that we're no longer handcuffed
or chained to a thousand-day window of a bull market. That would mean that we've only had, you know, from all time high to pullback 35% correction this cycle so far.
Previous cycles, you know, bear markets or corrections have been more akin to like 80% plus.
If somehow, some way we do like rally up here and have like a face ripping bull market led by us small caps and cost of capital is lower and you
know somehow some way it all lines up you're probably going to see bitcoin at like 250k but
i'm really like it's getting way out in front of our skis like i am not ready to suggest that
that's even on the table right now i think what we need to do from right here
is just focus on moving a little bit higher, right? Focus on trying to recouple with the
stock market. That's goal number one. So there's some supply overhead. know there's clearly some unresolved from october 10th but either
like i said either crypto is really undervalued here like so discounted here because look look at
bitcoin pair like relative pairs not to the dollar but like look at the bitcoin nasDAQ pair. Look at the Bitcoin SPX pair. Look at Bitcoin, you know, IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF pair, right?
Like, look at Bitcoin gold.
Like, all these pairs, like relative Bitcoin valuations against other assets.
Either Bitcoin is horribly undervalued here and crypto is horribly undervalued here, or all these other assets are lying.
As far as I'm concerned, that's exactly what's happening.
We kind of have to just wait and see because it's not really behaving how you'd expect.
really behaving how you'd expect well max i think the question is is is peter schiff lying right
is the silver and gold market lying man and uh it's it's been quite it's been quite the year
um honestly seeing the uh performance from precious Metals since he came on the show two, three weeks ago has been something to witness, man.
It's been something to witness.
I don't even think Tom Lee is doing any public appearances.
He hasn't done that since the summertime i believe i think he's only had like one summit where he did a seminar
and i think he said like ethereum's going to like 16 000 or whatever um but just to put things into
perspective guys just to put things um into perspective when we're talking about silver.
So right now the silver market cap sits at like 3.5, 3.6,
right around there, trillion.
So that would equate, if we look at the price action that silver is having,
that it had today, right, where it's up almost five percent on the day that
would equate to a 10 move on bitcoin uh just from that discrepancy between their market caps silver
is effectively trading um about a hundred percent higher in market cap than bitcoin and if we have a 10 move on btc which i i think it's gonna happen man i'm not i i i i
can't hold back here um that would effectively take bitcoin to that like 102 103 level um which
is where it touched on the on the event that we had on 1010. And Max, don't you think like that,
that would be the level where Bitcoin has to flip
if it actually wants to revert back into its like bull trend line?
You get above that, there's basically nothing but air above there
up until like 117, which is where that shoulder happened early last month.
Like I just can't be in crypto and look at silver and like,
oh, well, golly, silver's up 5%.
This must mean that like a huge bear market is coming, especially if you have the Fed about to basically do QE, but kind of rephrase it in another term, right?
this is like steroids right like all right i'm not gonna take injections but i'm gonna take
oral steroids right so instead of taking trend balloon which is like this is the best analogy
that i can make when it comes to what happened yesterday right so and i have to do this max
because like it's it's the only way like normies would understand i think you overestimate people's
knowledge of power lifting and bodybuilding, Wabi.
I don't know if the normie will truly understand this, but go ahead.
Give your anabolic steroid analogy, please.
So, look, when you put gas in your car, right, the strongest form of gas would be diesel, right?
Isn't that the strongest like form of gas diesel bro
uh jet fuel jet fuel okay okay okay all right so the jet fuel of steroids would be tremolone
acetate right and the vial is basically like gasoline it's like this brownish grayish looking color in a vial and when you take
it you're basically injecting bull like literal bull shark testosterone into your veins right and
you turn into a freak beast that is what we saw in 2021 right and what we saw in 2022 was basic test just basic testosterone right yana e allen injected
the equity markets with testosterone but it took a couple of months as we said earlier on the show
um but this time around we're going to take debol right which is an oral steroid it's a pill
but it still has basically the same effects. So it's not like
direct QE, but it's still kind of QE. It's not like pure, pure, pure steroids, but it's,
it's still steroids. Right. So the market's going to go up a lot. Um, and I think like just looking
for long opportunities, um, here would be like beneficial to be honest even if there's like
some small rough patches right um so that that's basically the best the best that i that i can put
it so jet fuel was um was 2021 uh diesel was basically what happened in in late 2022 and uh the the premium button on the gas
station would be like what's about to happen now so it's not jet fuel but it's still gas right like
it's it's still oil um but uh i think that's a better analogy, isn't it, guys? Hopefully I made sense here.
Prometheus, what's up, bro?
Yo, what's going on, guys?
Give me your most bullish take.
Like, just be super bullish, man. Just, like, feed.
Make our heads, like, explode with bullishness.
Just feed the anabolic bros?
Is that what you're saying?
Yeah, yeah, one with the trend below an acetate
Okay, yes, yes, my most bullish take possible is that whatever has occurred since October 10th is now cleared itself
We had a clear decoupling or dislocation between crypto and the broader asset class.
And now you have a severely discounted asset, like Max was saying, and we have a big, big
catch up trade to be had.
And like you said, that can happen pretty quickly, especially with the volatility we
see within this asset class.
We'll see if that actually comes to fruition or not, or whether or not this is just another walk in the park.
But yeah, my most bullish case is most certainly that we dislocated from equity markets because
of repercussions of 1010. And ultimately speaking, we're going to have a big catch up. IWM,
obviously, at new all-time highs. There are some assets that are pointing towards higher and some assets are pointing towards lower. It is
a bit confusing to try to understand the markets as a whole right now with the clear discrepancies
between different assets. But ultimately speaking, I have my targets as of right now,
and I'm sticking to them. I think that ultimately
equities can hold up relatively or show a lot more relative strength than crypto can just because of
the sheer amount of liquidity that's obviously in equities as a whole. But that's my most
that's my most bullish take right now, man. It's the fact that somehow, yeah, we just are going to see finally liquidity enter back into this market.
I would like to see the Fed do what they did in the past, which is start to intervene and have direct intervention in the long end, start buying bonds.
The long end end that is i think that would be huge for liquidity conditions if they
could also realistically reduce the cost of living for um the middle class households i think would
be very very significant especially for crypto as this asset class is largely driven by flows. So Prometheus, so basically what you're saying is
you need the eighth wonder of the world, the seven foot 500 pound anomaly known as big country
tuck to come in here and say, boys, we're pumping. Yes, brother. We need exactly that. We need less
soy products and we need more whole grain grass fed beef. And then I think we can really start to talk about
this market being bullish again. Dude, if you look at Hyperliquid, I mean, Hyperliquid has
lost its multi-month range and we're now accepting below that range as of right now.
You look at XRP, it looks like it's rolling off a cliff. I think there's a lot of noise right now. You look at XRP, it looks like it's rolling off a cliff. I think there's a lot of
noise right now. And people are really hoping that they can bring their portfolios back to a
place of what they were potentially once were earlier this cycle. And unfortunately, that's
most likely not going to be the case, in my opinion. I just think that there's a lot of
cope. But like you said, in the long run, it does pay to be an optimist.
It, it does not make sense to be, you know, perpetual pessimists, you know, within markets.
This is speculation, right?
And to be a speculator, you have to be an optimist.
Um, but you can be an optimist that things are going to go down a lot further too.
So, uh, but no, just, just joking on that, man, I'm, I'm, I'm long-term, you know, but you can be an optimist that things are going to go down a lot further too.
But no, just joking on that, man.
I'm long-term not worried about this asset class.
I just think that you probably need a little bit of a restructuring,
and that's just going to take a little bit of time,
but ultimately it will come out stronger on the other side ultimately yeah i i think the the hype soul pair is gonna be uh is gonna be alpha
for the next like two three years i thought it was gonna be monad but like i think you're right
on that fractal that you put out prometheus um dude i remember at the top of monad like two days after the tge uh i saw that clip
from market check where like uh i think max you called like the exact top on monad man
and i'm like no no this can't happen it can't be the same pattern and lo and behold it was the same
exact pattern man there are sectors of this crypto
market where like dude it's just it's just never it's never gonna change man the pattern is always
the same with these like highly highly overinflated man i don't i don't like using the same words but
it's what it is what it is these like highly overinflated valuations where they have two days worth of pump,
and then they draw down by 70%, 80%.
I think Kobe even tweeted about this.
You see coins like Pump, Pengu, Sui,
where their initial launch is great for the first like two three days
and then they slow rug by 70 80 percent and then from that bottom all the way up until their all
time high that's basically like a 400 layup trade and if it doubles from there right like a like a
suey did um or like a pump did, then that's like an 800%, 700%
trade from the lows. But by the time that that starts happening, you missed so many things that
went on in the market. Like you basically got outperformed by the broader market. Like, cool,
right? You look at something like a SUI, for example, right? I'm
looking at the chart right now. SUI bottomed out at like 40 cents, right? So, and its all-time high
was at about $5. Cool. It went up 12x from October of 2023 all the way up until January of 2025, right?
But then you take a look at, you might think to yourself, man, that's a great trade, man.
Why wouldn't I want to be in that, right?
But then you look at something like Robinhood, which was trading at eight dollars at the time and then i mean did robin hood basically went up like
15x almost 20x on infinite size as well like you got outperformed by an equity play you got
outperformed by an equity play man and it wasn't like some super low cap
shitco either man um so i don't know it's it's really strange with these things um even something
uh like an nvidia like an nvidia for example right um nvidia at that time was trading at like 40 bucks right that was like a 600 percent gain
uh right after that you could have gone some calls and absolutely not not cause i'm sorry
some leaps leaps would have been better and i i i don't know man with these like
high cap alts i just can't go back to how I was in 2023,
just being super sick on some of these tech coins.
I think the future, Prometheus, for tech coins is basically what we saw Kida do
earlier this year, a fair launch.
Or if you really want to like circle it back what caspa
did right these fair launches where um yeah bro i agree by the way dude buying monad was like
buying the coin ipo bro yeah yeah yeah yeah man um i don't really want to trash talk too much, but someone has to say it. Someone actually has to speak on the industry because if we're building stuff, then we're coming from a place where we know what traders want. We know what the market wants.
We know what traders want, like we know what the market wants.
And with a lot of these projects, it's basically been this copy and paste of an ETH EVM and trying to compete with a product, right, which is ETH and Sol.
They already have this like conglomerate, this monopoly around the entire space.
conglomerate this monopoly around the entire space.
And a good example would be like what Max gave an example with as far as like conducting
business without using Apple products, right?
Without using Apple, without using AI.
It's like this whole completely different dynamic of conducting business.
of conducting business and i think that's the way on chain is dude um trying to replicate
And I think that's the way on-chain is, dude.
the things that happen on soul doesn't really work out right we all know the price action that
we see on soul and we also know the price action that we see on base if you trade on chain then
you know the differences between uh price action on base and price action on soul and any chain that's tried to mimic that
has failed avax failed abstract failed arbitram failed optimism failed um so just like moving
forward man i think i think what would really help these teams man is just like having people that have traded the market you need actual
traders to be a part of these protocols because that's your consumer base right it's not retail
it's not like some dude who just doom scrolls on tiktok you know those reels that i send the
group chat prometheus the brain rot yeah those are crazy yeah yeah yeah
it's like when someone says mustard or six seven uh or they talk about like meeting up with john
pork and tim cheese to recruit them and have a business meeting with the costco guys um and have
a travi patty taco Yaki way, right?
Right? Like, you're not going to bring fruition to your chain
by attracting people that, like,
only throw in, like, 500 bucks, 400 bucks.
You want to attract a group of people
that have, like, three to five mil in liquidity
to shove into your chain.
way to do that is honestly by criming your charts dude you look at bonk that was the soul foundation
with soul foundation um i think i said i said this on a space before man um just not sure which one it was. But if you look at what the guys on Solana did, they have actively fed mouths, man.
Last year, they shouted out, I think that was late 23.
They shouted out all those AI names, dude, that went to almost the bill, ARK, stuff like that, Grafane.
James, dude, that went to almost the bill, ARK, stuff like that, Grafain.
But these other guys, right, like, dude, they don't really care about their chain.
But at least, like, we know what's going to be here five years from now, right?
Like, we know Chainlink is going to be here five years from now.
We know ETH is. Hopefully Hy from now. We know Solana is. We know ETH is.
So, yeah, Prometheus, let me ask you this, man.
What in the world is going on with silver, dude?
percent on the day and i mean i mean it kind of looks like at least lower time frame wise
that um btc actually wants wants to bust a move um i think if we get above 94.4 um dude i honestly
think it's it's it's a magnet towards like 98 99k man if i'm being honest if we get past that like lower time frame double top
that we had recently at 94.4 94.5 um i really think we could see a wave of breath here man
even if it's just like a multi-day a multi-day santa rally and the iwm bro i just i just
it's it's like taking an injection of like roids and thinking that like
you're not gonna get stronger because you are gonna get are you on steroids i just feel like
you're trying to tell us but no no not yet oh no no no no i'm afraid i'm afraid of needles dude
um you don't have to be take uh you don't have to inject.
You can take like anivore orally.
Yeah, oh, you know about anivore, huh?
Why do you guys even know about this stuff?
It's a byproduct of being in the gym at certain times. It's a byproduct of his generation, honestly.
Dude, imagine Tucker on gear.
Dude, he'd be such a freak, man.
You know the meme where it's like a baby
That's exactly what it would be.
But did you ever play Ra the darkness with tucker man
do you know about that no we're not even gonna go there i did not um i did not play that um
oh man dude i i would love to play that yeah that would be that would be a great maybe at the top
of the market man no i don't think you want to want to play. No, I don't think you want to play that, Wabi.
I don't think you want to play that.
Nope, I was not there for those shenanigans and activities.
If BTC does break this range high, actually, you do have an opportunity.
We'll see what Bulls can do,
like how strong are Bulls going to be here locally?
I mean, that's the biggest question.
Anytime we've gotten, you know,
up to the yearly open or range highs,
it's really been quite a disappointment, unfortunately.
So we'll see if Bulls can actually put in a meaningful bounce
I think if you can get above this
yearly open and finally get a daily close above there, it's pretty obvious to me at that point
we're going to be going higher. It's such a scammy market though, bro. It's this really nasty market
maker fuckery that we're getting, unfortunately. I just think, I just think you've got to be careful. You've got to be patient, too.
A lot of people are just getting chewed up on both sides of the trade,
And if you have conviction, you have conviction.
If not, then just stay out of the market
until the market proves you otherwise.
It's like you said, right?
Maybe people shouldn't get too far ahead of their skis
and it's the winter time also man i think that's i think that should be a part of uh
of like the bb meme lore right um getting oh it is yeah yeah yeah yeah and then there's
boys were pumping um and then there's good afternoon how
are you what do you see in the market you could have foreseen oh dude yes yeah you can't forget
about that one yeah oh man that is a classic that's a classic man good times good times I miss those times dude like take me back to late 23 through 2024 man it
was so much fun that's why I'm hoping like somehow some way crypto is just so severely discounted
against what stocks are doing and we can come out of this thing and run it back man it was just it was just
a different time like we had so much fun i see some guys in here man like the meme coin the meme
coin trenchers man like we had so much fun like when the boys club was really small and just
starting out and like it's so funny man i miss it back. Like, let's run this shit back. I really hope that somehow,
some way we have like the greatest catch up trade to what US small caps are doing. I feel like we've
just been cheated in crypto. We've been completely cheated. Like everything lined up for every other for ours you know gold silver u.s small caps mag 7 you know like everything everything is cooking
and then there's crypto like man we deserve so much better we're good people man there's a lot
of good people here we deserve better who could have foreseen yeah um i i uh i remember tucker was on the show yesterday
and i asked him to dry out some fibs on the iwn and basically now that we have a clear
and definitive breakout on the iwn on pretty much every single time frame it's basically a straight line until like 320 which equates to basically like a 40
plus percent move from where we're at right now um yeah about 40 give or take and if the Russell
moves 40 one can only think that all right that's basically like a triple-digit gain incoming to a wide array of assets on chain.
That means breadth is coming into the market.
And the last time, like the actual last time that we saw the Russell acting this strong was, in fact, going into the election.
So I just can't fade that. And I'm excited for what's to come. And I think
we're going to get that, Max. I think we're going to get, at the very least, an echo bubble.
And I think it's cool that Eric Trump isn't really talking about like how amazing the market's about to be.
I think moving forward, he's kind of like, he's like the harbinger of doom for the market, where once you start seeing him talk about how amazing market conditions are about to be,
and the crypto market's kind of coming close to a top, but he's been relatively quiet on that front.
And I think it should stay that way i think like the trump family should just be talking about the equity markets and how amazing
the stock market is and all that stuff and how high the dow jones is going to be because if the
stock market goes up then crypto is going to go up even if there's trump literally came out today
and he's like the stock market should be going up.
We need all the Trumps to talk about the stock market.
No one should be talking about the crypto market, man.
And there should be no main characters.
That's another thing, too, man.
Sailor is in a new character. No more Murad's?
Murad got a haircut, bro.
That's not Murad. Yeah, so he's a clone that's not marad um yeah marad's a clone dude the real marad like dude how about the marad the marad giga chad glow up man that is
as i didn't expect the haircut man that could be a bottom signal though for real yeah um do kwan is also going to prison today so like that
that's probably that's probably some signal as well um my god what is what a different market
during those times but um that's that's that that goes with the saying, right? Like, hard times create strong men.
And Murad is like a classic example of that.
His face was a bit more chunky.
He got the haircut, the clean haircut.
And hard times create strong men.
Strong men create good times.
And the cycle goes on and on and on.
I think that's how 2025 was.
Wouldn't you agree, guys?
2025 was a hard time if you were in crypto.
Broadly speaking, I understand there were some pockets of outperformance on-chain, but the amount of winners just wasn't as high as it was in 23, late 23 and through 24, right?
And I think like if you're still active, if you still have some liquidity after like these choppy market conditions, then you've been molded, man.
You've been molded to endure.
You've been molded to endure.
And again, the setup we have here is honestly, it's actually insane, right?
Silver being up 5% and it's valued by a multiple of like two against Bitcoin.
I mean, that would mean BTC is probably going to retest 100 bands, in my opinion.
Well, we were talking about this earlier.
I believe it was on market check earlier.
It all kind of blends together as either before market check, on market check, after market check, or maybe on, like, the call this morning.
But in your opinion, and I'm kind of asking you a tough question because it's
subjective. It like everybody will answer it differently because it depends who you follow.
But in your opinion, Wabi, does a hundred to like a hundred and three K seem kind of like a crowded
level. And the reason I ask that is because from the people that I follow,
it seems like everybody is looking for some sort of, not everybody, right? But a lot of people are looking for some sort of like, oh, okay, I'm finally ready to be bearish. Just,
it's so obvious that we're going to get a 2022 type of shoulder. You know. I'll happily sell on the next bounce or short the next 98 to 102K retest,
and that will be like 2022. And then down only. And it's not everybody, right? There's plenty
of people that are bullish, plenty of people that have been bearish, whatever. But it seems to me like there's a lot of people that are like ready for that, you know, 300K roughly short.
And my thought on it is the following.
Either we just basically got our dead cat bounce and we're going to roll over from here.
Or we actually might have the death of the four-year cycle and just turbo run this thing back. I find it hard to imagine they'd give a perfect retest of like 98 to 102.
That's so obvious, you know, like it's so obvious and it feels so crowded to me.
But I'm curious, like how you feel about that scenario, Wabi.
It's different for everybody.
So I'll circle back to something that that prometheus said um about a year ago
uh actually a little over a year ago um and prometheus was prospecting the fact that like
most of the people that are on ct uh people that found that follow large accounts uh like
ansem trader main all those like large accounts soldier k plus accounts people that follow large accounts like Ansem, TraderMain, all those large accounts, SoldierK Plus accounts,
people that follow XO, SE, they all know TA.
They all know Fibonacci's.
And when you come to a point where the majority of market participants
all know this alpha and it starts being decayed,
then those levels are usually front ran either
prematurely early or they're delayed a bit right so for example i remember prometheus
uh mentioned the post having year and he mentioned what if the market actually tops out
right as trump is about to go into office and And I am pretty sure we have that space recorded because all these spaces are recorded.
So just to go to your question, Max, I think we just blow through it, to be honest.
I think we just blow through those levels.
Maybe like we rallied to like 97-ish, pull back to 95, and then we just have a massive gap up to like 105 107 um which is right
where like we were raging right before the day that trump got inaugurated um where i think we
pumped like five percent on that day and soul went to like 300 bucks or whatever it was so that that would be my take
i think like perhaps we we front run that right we go to like 97 ish we pull back on the lower
time frame and then we just like turbo it from there and if we just look at 2026, given that it is Trump's midterms, and here's the deal, right?
Most midterms have been bearish, but they haven't always been bearish.
Same as post-election years.
Most post-election years are bullish, but they're not always bullish.
they're not always bullish.
And I think it's just a weird mix-up of seasonality, Max.
Seasonality has been really wonky this year.
And I think some of these levels are just going to be broken through,
And I think Jack has had mentioned this in one of his posts and one of his replies
and he had mentioned that in q1 of 2022 the market was kind of indecisive on where it was going to go
right uh the s p had that um huge rally to that complacency shoulder i think got like 4,300 and change in March of 22
BTC rallied to like 49 bands but the thing is the thing is you did not have
precious metals basically going up only as if as if Jimmy Carter was the president, right?
Jimmy Carter, he was president, I think, late 70s,
where it was basically a stagflationary period for the equity markets.
And basically, the country was in a recession.
But you had precious metals like gold,
basically turbo up only. And that's what we're seeing this year
gold and precious metals silver um platinum palladium is another one as well that's been
doing quite well i don't know if i'm pronouncing that right uh palladium has been doing quite well
been doing quite well. And we also have small caps actually breaking out of every single
time frame, whereas in Q4 of 21, the IWM had a double top. This isn't a double top.
And the Fed in late 21 was signaling restrictive policy. Now they're signaling dovish policy. And I mean, we all know
what's going to happen once Powell leaves, right? Trump is going to bring in someone that makes
Alan Greenspan, who was like the main guy who did that QE1 round during the late stages of the GFC looked like Paul Volcker, who was probably like someone that's a class of character that's never going to be a part of the Fed again, where he basically raises rates by like 5% in a single day.
You're never going to see a Volcker again. that's that's where i'm at max and truth
be told like it's it's it's it's um i guess it's it's it's what dave hunter said right the melt up
it was just it was just prolonged um to the midterms and i think trump is going to do everything
in his power to make sure all markets are roaring going into that time period, which is the midterms.
Yeah, I mean, part of me hopes you're right. I hope that, well, okay.
Your thoughts on, you know, Trump basically like taking control, like kind of phantom taking control of the Fed is a really short-term exciting thing, right?
If Trump puts somebody in Powell's spot, that is more or less an extension of him
you are going to see probably one of the craziest bull markets we've ever seen
if they actually do what trump says you know i mean trump is saying things that are they're not even like they're not based on like data.
They're basically like, yeah, the Fed should like they're a bunch of dummies.
Powell should cut by 300 bips.
You know, it's like, holy crap.
Like that would be like an emergency cut where like if COVID came back, you know, and like the economy shut down and like
they had to cut because like things were about to like imminently collapse. Right. Um, you don't
typically see like a 300 basis point reduction in the effective federal funds rate. Um,
well, the economy is still strong and like everything is under control. Right. So I don't,
I don't think regardless of like who he puts in place, we would get something like that.
Right. Because then I think when the chickens kind of the proverbial chickens come home to roost,
like somebody is going to go to prison for, you know, what happens. I mean, what would,
what would happen then is, I mean, we're going to have another round of incredibly high inflation
to start, um, is, again, that would
take two or three years to kind of work its way through the plumbing of the economy. But if they
basically, if Trump puts somebody in Powell's position, that is more or less an extension of him.
And their prerogative is to basically pump the markets so viciously and violently through the duration of his term
and really don't care too much about the economic consequences later down the road.
We'll let the next guy deal with that.
We are, in fact, going to see one of the craziest melt-ups that we've ever seen.
I mean, it will be the bubble of bubbles across the board.
I mean, you will see the cost of capital drop to a fraction of what it is right
now. I mean, you will see everything thrown at this market that they possibly can to pump it.
And we'll have a lot of fun in the short term. It's also scary to think about having to deal
with the fallout of that, because if the fallout of that is high inflation, which is then met with some sort of stagflation, you know, years down the
road, you're going to enter basically like a wasted decade, most likely, where we're going to
end up, the next guy will bring us back into higher rates. And we're probably going to enter
a multi-year bear market at some point down the road.
And stagflation with no growth.
And it's going to further kind of widen the, you know, the wealth gap and, like, all the problems we have right now. So, like, one part of me, like, the selfish part of me is like, hell yeah, brother.
I missed the last bull market. Like, man, 2021 was so much fun, man. It was so fun.
Bring me back, you know, bring me back, pump others dominance, you know. But then the other
side of me is like, you know, I'd like to be here for a long time, you know, talking about markets and
building this business with you guys. And I would like to see, you know, global markets hold up
well, and I'd love a strong economy that's sustainable. And, you know, I also think that
if they basically just like create a monster bubble, that that will probably cause, you know,
five to 10 years of a horrific fallout for, you know, the next couple people that take office.
So I don't know. I mean, we'll see what they do.
It's certainly not up to me and I'll be here to, you know, read and react regardless.
But, yeah, I mean, if Trump really does just put in a guy, you know, put a guy into Powell's position that is basically just an
extension of him and Trump takes control of the Fed, then, you know, I think you're probably right,
Wabi. Like, we probably are going to see one of the more ridiculous bull markets of all time. But
just keep in mind, too, like, your assets may greatly appreciate in value, but the thing in which they're valued in
is probably going to be losing a tremendous amount of value, which is nothing new,
to be totally clear. But the fiat debasement is going to continue to get worse and worse and worse,
and there's going to be nothing organic about it. but we would have so much fun for a couple
years we would have so much fun which is not the worst thing in the world but i would just say like
take your profits when trump is out of office you know that would be my only recommendation
yeah that's that that's always the other side of the trade right the downside that comes after uh
the sugar high when everyone's drunk in the punch bowl,
the music's all way up and all that stuff.
But, Max, if we just look at, like, maybe this is something that you've already seen,
maybe some of the people have seen in the audience also,
but if we look at something like the ETH-ES pair, right, the ETH against the S&P,
ETH against the Qs, since, like, I would say early Q2, April of 21.
ETH has basically been in a almost half a decade trend of nothingness.
In a trend of nothingness.
ETH hit an all-time high of, 4,400 in early Q2, early May of 2021.
I think the S&P was at like 4,000 or something like that.
So, I mean, the S&P, the indices have greatly outperformed ETH for almost five years now. And I think that's basically what a lost decade is in some ways. Because if we're in crypto, then we all know that
a year in crypto is like two, three years in the equity markets. And a catch-up trade with ETH against something like the S&P would take ETH to like $6,200, $6,300, right around there.
Or even a bit higher, honestly.
And I think that catch-up trade is going to be incredible.
And I think this Trump pump, even though it's delayed, I think it's going to be incredible. And I think this, like, Trump pump,
even though it's delayed,
I think it's going to be great.
And I don't think it's going to come directly from Trump.
I think it's just going to be, like,
I think we all just have to accept that
that's going to come to this market
is just going to be a beneficiary
because that's what basically runs markets liquidity which is
basically what happens when monetary policy is restrictive so liquidity is dry and when when
policy is uh more neutral more dovish liquidity starts to run a bit more rampant as you said max
more rampant, as you said, Max. When policy becomes easier, less restrictive, cost of capital
is a lot cheaper to borrow. And people can take out low-interest loans to buy shitters,
or they mortgage their property to buy shitcoins, which at some point is probably going to happen,
right? Imagine some boomer um that has uh a bunch
of real estate he's like man did you i i keep hearing about farcoin have you heard about far
coin let me let me go ahead and do a refi and um you know buy some shitters man can you imagine
that max can you imagine if that actually happens i can't imagine it yeah that's some like late
stage capitalism shit right there that's like a precursor to the end of the financial system as we know it
right there. But I think we've seen that trend gradually becoming more and more and more likely,
not necessarily that like the wealthy real estate boomers buying fart coin. I mean, maybe,
like the wealthy real estate boomers buying fart coin i mean maybe but just that everything is now
able to be speculated on everything you can gamble on everything right wabi you've been
really astute in your observations of like prediction markets and the impact that that's
had you know on crypto as kind of a competitor right um and i guess maybe in one regard a
solution a better solution to some of these exchanges. But, you know, I think when you look at the full picture, sneakers, like all these things that conventionally
haven't held like a crazy amount of value unless like, I mean, everything has a value.
And there's always some niche one-off where like a chair will sell for a lot of money
or like a random pair of shoes.
Cause they were worn by, you know, Michael Jordan sold for a lot of money or, you know,
like in general, like these collectible, these niche collectible markets have,
have really just become so popular. Right. And I think we're living in this age of,
you know, value subjectivity where everything is a market. Everything is, is a commodity.
Everything is, is hyper investable. And I think that is, again,
kind of what you're alluding to, Wabi, in a way of, you know, traditionally you would invest in
stocks, bonds, and real estate, and then maybe like your house and your business, right? If you
had a business, like those are, that's your market. That's where you invest. But now there's
a million different markets. You can collect video game skins, right, for like virtual characters and those those hold tremendous amount of value.
Like this this age that we're living in is really more a result of that our money is broken and that bankers manipulate the value of our currencies to a point where the younger generation genuinely
has decided as a collective, you know what?
I can't even afford to buy a house.
Let me just buy a bunch of like, you know, baseball cards and just like open them and
hopefully I get some cool shit that's worth money because they don't even want to try
to invest conventionally because they've been boxed out of it. They've been priced out of
these, these conventional investments. Like, what do you want to do? Go buy Nvidia at a $3 trillion
valuation or whatever it is. I don't even know what it is right now. You get the point at a
multi-trillion dollar valuation. Like, no, like, dude, I, I've got family that they're, you know, they're 18 to
25 year old, you know, family members. Like they're not buying stocks. They're not buying
like bonds. They're not buying real estate. They're interested in it. You know what they're
all doing? They're, they're sports betting. They're buying, they're, they're, they have a,
what the fuck is that app called?
They're all an underdog and Polymark and CalSheet.
And they all have bookies.
And that's like their investing is like they sports bet.
And some of them are calculated about it, right?
And then they buy, you know, collectible cards and shoes and like, you know, all this shit,
And they view them as like investments.
Oh, yeah, I'll flip them.
and I'm gonna hit this parlay
and then buy this and flip it.
Like, it's not even their fault too.
That's the thing is like, I don't even blame them.
Like, what are they gonna do?
Go buy like a duplex and rent it out?
They don't have a $500,000 down payment, you know?
Like, what are we talking about here?
So yeah, will like the boomer real estate investor
go and buy Fartcoin? Probably not. They don't need to. Will their kid? Yeah. Their kid is going to
take their inheritance and gamble it like the rest of us, right? We are all kind of a result.
I'm 30 years old. All of us around my age, give or take five years either direction,
All of us around my age, give or take five years either direction, are sort of bundled together in this group of people that are seeing this in real time, right?
The cost of living is so high.
You have to be more creative with your investment strategies and you have to take on more risk because if you don't take on more risk, then you get so far left behind.
It's like a hole that you can't dig yourself out of.
So I think you really need to rethink like, you know, I can dollar cost average, you know,
500 bucks a paycheck into the, you know, the indexes for the rest of my life.
And I'll probably be middle-ish to maybe upper class, assuming you don't have a
bunch of inheritance coming your way, right? But my parents, your parents, assuming they're between,
you know, 55 and 70, roughly, they could dollar cost average into the indexes and buy their home
and sit there and do literally nothing and just get filthy rich off of it.
nothing and just get filthy rich off of it. And the biggest pressure point that frustrates me is
my dad has never owned stocks in his entire life. He's 70 years old. Love him to death. Great guy.
He has never owned stocks in his entire life. And I said to him like a year ago, I said,
do you realize like how wealthy you would be if you just put a little bit of money like every month into the indexes from when you were my age?
I'd like to have control over my investments and be able to see them.
I'm like, oh, my goodness, you're just you missed it.
Right. you missed it. You know, that's cope, right? But, you know, for those of you whose parents,
like they put in a ton of money into the market and past 30, 40 years were dollar cost averaging
into it, they didn't have to do anything. They're worth millions of dollars. They didn't have to do
anything, right? Nothing. I don't think the people that are between 25 and 35 will see the,
I don't think they'll see the same thing. I do not think that our generation will
have the same luxuries of buying a house, raising your family there, and then selling it for 30X
higher than you bought it for. I don't think you'll be able to do that. I don't think you'll
be able to dollar cost average into the major indexes, the S&P, the Dow, the Russell, the NASDAQ,
whatever it may be, and sit there and do nothing for 30 years and become
a multi-deca millionaire. I do not think that's going to be your reality. Those of us who are
between 25 and 35, and let's just assume this hypothetical individual doesn't have any crazy
inheritance coming their way and they get a paycheck or they have a business or whatever
it may be. I think those type of people that will not benefit directly from inheritance,
their parents who were sound investing
during the perfect window of time to be doing that.
I think the only people that are gonna come out
as like multi, multi-millionaires
by the time they're 55, 65, 70
are gonna be the ones that take on an exorbitant
amount of risk right now. And you're going to have to have a stomach for it and you're going
to have to learn how to do it and be smart and creative. But I don't think you're going to have
the same tailwind that your parents' generation had. I think that time has come and gone. I think
things are a lot different now. So yeah, like what a tangent. But no, I don't think that time has come and gone. I think things are a lot different now.
So yeah, like what a tangent.
But no, I don't think that the boomer real estate millionaire is going to buy fart coin.
But his kids will and his kids' friends will. And this is never going away because as long as we still have like this uphill battle of young people can't get ahead, right?
Because the money's broken. The
cost of living is too high by no fault of their own. They're going to look at that and the
ambitious ones are going to be like, well, I would like to maybe be rich one day. Well, it's not
going to be buying a fucking duplex or buying Nvidia or Apple here. Okay. I'll take my chances
with fart coin and a Tom Bradyady rookie card right i mean they probably
can't afford that either that's that's a bad example but you get what i mean right
that's kind of how i view it wabi that was a 20 minute yeah that's there you go that's
incredible that's incredible man i think if someone clip that for me that was a cook yeah
clip that for me i'll retweet you cook me we we gotta tell z to to clip that man because that
that was uh that was the truth man that was the stone cold truth i mean if we look at what the
s&p did from uh march of 09 we're bottomed at 666 which is honestly terrifying uh s p is up about 10x um over the last 16 and a half years um that's
probably not going to happen to the s p anymore you're not going to see the s p go to like 50
000 60 000 70 000 over the next decade and a half i mean unless you want like a loaf of bread to be like 25 bucks uh 30 bucks which which which would be uh which would be
insane honestly um let me just take a look at like the the the price of of uh of property max right
since um pre-covid 2018-2019 if we look at just basic goods and services, utilities, all that stuff,
has far outperformed what the S&P has done since that time period.
Like, even at the gym that I go to, like, a lot of the guys are always asking me,
you know, who do I bet on, right?
Like, who do I bet on for the basketball game or for the football game and all that stuff?
And, like, believe it or not, I don't do any sports betting myself,
but, like, the picks that I've given these people have been, like, a 95% win rate.
But, I mean, like, they don't really bet with, like, size.
They bet, like, $200, $300, $400.
The payout's, like, 2x or something like that.
Truth be told, I don't even know what a parlay is.
Honestly, I really don't.
I honestly thought it was a golf term.
And, you know, speaking about golf, for those that don't know,
I started playing, not actual playing, but like practicing golf.
And within my first 60 days, I'm actually a four handicap.
And that's basically like elite status.
So what we're going to do, like, should we have this fallout once we have this melt up? We're actually going to have a subsidiary brand called Because Golf,
and I'm going to be the coach of that.
And we're all going to go to the PGA World Tour, man.
I'm not sure if you guys see him as a speaker or not,
but we should definitely clip that, man.
Because that is the truth and even with like just cards in general right you now have like anime cards with ips like naruto and
one piece uh over the last and this is a real trend by the way that's happening now in real time um these cards for these ips um they're they're trading like like
shit coins in 2017 2021 where they go up in value like 200 percent uh within a matter of days and
it's honestly insane like just the collective trading card market is melting up rather than it being just selective within sports.
It's now expanding. And when you start seeing assets across the board within a sector.
Right. So whether it's tangible goods like precious metals, trading card games, whether it's equities like the stock market whether it's
digital assets like crypto eventually it all melts up at once um it just so happens that crypto is
usually like the last one to run um so it all comes together man it all comes together, man. It all comes together. And the way this usually ends is like a Forbes cover of sorts and some like big interview
Um, that was like probably the frothiest for retail that it was last cycle.
That's a poor choice of words.
Fresh liquidity coming in, right?
And the cycle before that, I forgot what it was.
I think it was like Metallic Buterin going on news stations and all that stuff.
I think it was like Metallic Buterin going on news stations and all that stuff.
Yeah, I don't remember too much from like late 2017.
I think the market was just so small back then.
There wasn't much signal outside of like BitConnect.
People were talking about BitConnect in real life.
I don't know what's going to be like that major pinpoint for
next cycle maybe it's trump going on like some late night show and talking about trump coin and
price discovery or whatever that would that i think that would culminate to like the mother
of all tops guys if trump coin actually goes into price discovery um that would actually be like the harbinger of doom um for people
that aren't holding assets man maybe that's like the vix for the crypto space uh but wasn't trump
coin like rallying going into tencent prometheus i think i think yeah i was seeing a little bit of
a move i think they were announcing like staking rewards or something along those lines.
One of the craziest stats that I've seen is the dollar since 2019 is worth 33% less now,
which is kind of terrifying.
And alongside that, average median salaries have only increased by 12%. So, you know, I mean,
your purchasing power is just completely imploding on itself. And that's why like a lot of people are
like, oh, we're not entering into a recessionary period. Well, you know, based off of, you know,
if you look at the, you know, the cost of living and from a median household perspective,
most people are very much so feeling and realizing what it feels like to be in a recessionary period.
But the thing is, is a lot of these companies can sustain, you know, a lot, um, you know, a lot more,
um, we'll call it like hardship, a lot less consumer spending. Right. Um, and the companies
are a lot more resilient than what the median households are than the median households right
now. And I think that's why a lot of people, you know, if you go talk to people who've recently
got laid off fresh grinds out of college, you know, I mean, to Max's it's it's pretty it's pretty um sobering when you kind of
go out there and step out into the real world like you have you know multi-millionaires here
on this platform screaming that saying everything's fine and all you need to do is buy bitcoin and
then and you'll giga make it um it for me is don't you find it, don't you find it odd? Don't you find it odd, dude, that, like, the moment someone on CT, quote unquote, makes it,
they start saying the most ridiculous thing?
Like, number one, it's either so over and it's going to be like a 10-year bear where nothing happens,
or they say, oh, dude, just buy majors, when in reality, they probably made their bag on Pepe or Whiff or Bonk.
majors when in reality they probably made their bag on pepe or whiff or bunk or far yeah or they
were like some in some group chat like you know they were a group of kols and they were able to
extract liquidity and you know i mean that's been a lot of that this cycle let's be real um but i
mean rightfully so when you do when you do make you know your first million you you should diversify
it is it is you know you should be in some form of capital preservation mode and obviously you
shouldn't be taking the same risks and that's unfortunately the fact is like most people
enter this market and uh to max's point like most people don't have like 500 000 they can put down
uh for a down payment on a house but at the same you know, a lot of people don't even have like $10,000 to enter into this market.
And the sobering reality is if like when you enter into this market, especially in the beginning of your journey and you start with very, very little capital, you have to take tremendous, tremendous risk and very concentrated risk at that.
this risk and very concentrated risk at that. And to be able to really build and compound your
wealth, that's, you know, that's just the reality of the situation. It really is like the majority
of people in this market or that made money, the cycle did not make money from, you know, buying,
buying ETH or like buying Bitcoin. like they did not make it this cycle
by doing so. And do you think they're going to be able to do that next cycle if they weren't
able to do it this cycle? Um, I, I, I beg to differ. Um, I, I don't think that they will be,
or I don't beg to differ, but I mean, I don't think, I think that trend will continue into
the future where you're just going to have to take a more exorbitant, exorbitant risk here moving forward to be able to get yourself in a position to where you can live comfortable, comfortably financially and to be able to like take care of children and like to be able to like raise a household like because at the end of the day the most important
I mean you know you may have different values than me but my belief is that you know the most
important thing for a human being is to be able to procreate and raise another human being and
as of right now it is extremely difficult to provide that child with a comfortable, you know, standard
of living as of right now, if you're not eating, you know, ramen and, you know, you're in, you
actually want to have them live in a decent neighborhood and like go to a good, get a decent
education and like eat, you know, good good food that's not just like complete garbage
um it's slop bro it's pure slop out there dude you go like i like using tiktok i don't care what
anyone says that that kind of gives me edge um but uh if you go on something like tiktok
youtube or use instagram or whatever you're, you're hit with all this slop.
You're hit with like food slop, Chipotle, raising canes.
I don't like canes, by the way.
It's like a ripoff of Chick-fil-A.
And Chick-fil-A is kind of like a ripoff of what Wendy's used to be.
Have you ever had Zaxby's?
I haven't had a Zaxby's, but I've had Culver's before.
Culver's and Canes copied Zaxby's.
Have you ever been to Slotsky's?
Yeah, their sandwiches, their bread is so fucking good.
I haven't had that since I was a kid.
Maybe when I go over to KC, after certain events here happen at BB,
we can all have Schlotzky's and celebrate. That would be fantastic. You got to get a sandwich
with a soup, bro. You got to get there. You got to get their soup with a sandwich, bro.
It's a fire topic. Honestly, bro, when we talk about values, I don't really trust soup if it
doesn't come from my mom or a grandma that's been cooking soup for generations.
If you actually think about it, dude, we're about to lose a bunch of recipes.
Like, we're losing recipes.
Do you consider chili a soup?
But if you think about it, dude, like, with the way the economy works, it's basically like the Hunger Games.
And when you're in a Hunger Games type of economy where like you actively need to do things to earn income, not just have one thing.
You have people that actually lose tradition and you lose recipes.
And when you lose recipes recipes generations turn into slop it's like
oh i don't feel like cooking i'm just gonna go to uber eats and then basically you pay a 30
premium for like lukewarm slop food that's all like heated and sloppy and soggy and you're gonna eat it with a smile you will pay a 30
premium on your food and you will like it and you will go to a restaurant and get some fire
fire food from a restaurant for the same you're getting from doordash probably cheaper dude to be
honest it's just like there's there's a lot of complacency in that regard where it's like, oh, I guess I'm screwed.
I'm just going to stay in. I'm just going to stay in and continue doing what I'm doing and get this slop. Right.
And, dude, I agree with you, bro. Like having a kid is like the most selfless thing you can do.
And like it is a responsibility, right?
And not everyone is meant to be a parent.
But just like the principle of taking care of another life, I truly don't know what's a better feeling.
I haven't experienced it, but, like, just seeing, like, the evolution of what happens to a man when he has to look over another life that depends on him is probably the most beautiful thing that you can ever experience.
Like, to be someone's father, you understand what that is, dude?
You're looking over somebody's life.
Like, you are that organism's's like entire world man and yeah um yeah i can't really
say too much outside of that because i'm not a father yet um but maybe i will bro maybe i will
by the next having or the having after that and then king wabi will probably change his handle to
something else but um yeah i i see uh he requested there um yeah it's it's definitely a weird economy
dude where like you don't really know people man and i say that because like a lot of people in big cities, they're just trying to
survive. And this is outside of like market talk stuff. Like this is just, just general like yap,
uh, or slop if you want to call it that. But, um, when you speak to someone who's in pure survival
mode, um, their personality skews in two directions, right? Who they are when they're
alone and who they have to be when they're out in the world, right? Like when you speak to someone
who just came off of like a 16 hour shift, working two jobs and they're in the gym, they're exhausted,
bro. Like they don't have the energy to like speak to you and all that stuff
and you might say oh that person is weird he's quiet or she's quiet um like they're they're
really anti-social probably not man you have it twisted they're just exhausted because they've had
to basically play this like customer service character and they can't really be themselves because they're paid to be XYZ to
do XYZ tasks. This is coming from someone that actually did all of this during COVID. I had two
full-time jobs for a year and a half. I worked 16 to 18-hour days back-to, um, five, six days out of the week. And I, I wasn't myself.
I can tell you from her firsthand experience, dude, it takes a lot out of you and you get
really frustrated, um, and you just burn out. And I, I, I know a lot of people who have been
doing that for way longer than I did. And yeah, it's, it's, it's, um, it's a different state of affairs.
Like you have a category that's in assets and a category that's not,
and Tommy goes into this, right? The have and have nots. And, you know, I,
I I'm assuming that what you said is basically in line with,
And when this melt-up comes, you're still going to have that category of people where even though they might have some discretionary capital to use to either gamble on or whatever,
they're probably going to shove it into either sports betting or they're going to go on a trip somewhere and just blow it all in like three or four days.
And that just is what it is.
I think more than anything, right, like if we're bullish on crypto, I think we just need like big capital that actually cares about adding liquidity into the industry long term rather than finding opportunities to extract.
You need you need more like hyperliquids and I would say less pump funds.
Right. You need less Axiom broccoli haired Fortnite kids.
And you need more like Mike Dudas, you know, Mike Dudas, right?
He's like a VC guy. You need more of those guys.
And bro, those, those projects,
those are born in the bear market where they, you know,
can't put some slop, you know, AI, you know, coded, vibe coded garbage together.
And then it's like, you know, they just they get like 50 percent of whatever token it is, you know, the 50 percent of the allo and then they'll just dump it on the markets.
Like true quality projects are built in the bear market where they release and there's not that
Is Prometheus cutting out for anyone else?
Yeah, he kind of rugged for me. He was about to say something.
Not on my end. you're good you're good now
yeah my bad i'm driving through the woods but yeah i mean the true the solid projects are built
in the bear market where the teams don't get that instant gratification of just being able
to make a ton of money and like dump their supply on the market immediately real man um kita came out in a really uncertain time in the market uh very uncertain time dude
it came out uh in like mid-march or whatever but um i'm gonna pass it i'm gonna now pass it on over to ragsy and then uh i'm
gonna close out the space here guys we've been cooking for uh almost two hours now yeah almost
two hours um but guys if you're enjoying the space if you guys have been enjoying the space
over the last two hours you can give the because bitcoin account a follow. My name is Wabi. I host these spaces throughout the week.
I'm your host of Market Talk.
I host this live now at 3.30 p.m. EST.
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So Market Talk is now hosted at 3.30 p.m. EST.
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and um i'm gonna pass it on over to ragsy now and space to record as always guys
but ragsy what's going on how are you good good yeah i love the conversation especially about the
the diversification of assets for like for like gen z and younger like uh like i invest in lego
sets you get a higher yield than gold so it's like you could
collect i know a lot for a lot of people it's like pokemon cards but i have like a treasure
trove of like legos and lego sets because with the lego sets they expire so like you're a
renaissance woman and investing as you said renaissance renaissance woman yeah lego renaissance yeah i do like i do
like all kinds of like creative you know ways of like just buying and trading stuff lego sets man
because they so when lego makes a set it's out for a certain period of time and then they never
make it again so the valuation of those like goes through the roof over
time so i've been collecting like the nintendo 64 lego sets they don't make them anymore since like
the pandemic and it's they're already worth like 30 percent higher than where they were when they
came out it's only going to go up over time because you literally they will never make this set again right so it's kind of like similar to pokemon cards so i think
like a lot of people are interested in those kinds of things and i think that's also why the meme
coin economy is so hot with um with crypto because it's creative you know it's uh like
crypto is great avenue like obviously it has a draw.
But that's why meme coins attracts the retail eyes, because it's more of a creative and like wild kind of idea.
And that's what that's kind of like what the younger generation likes, in my opinion, instead of like traditional, you know, things like I don't know like life insurance
real estate the younger generation likes Pokemon cars Legos meme coins things like that that's
what's hot right now I don't think the cycle's over I don't think it's going to be the same as
a four-year cycle it sure as hell looks that way it kind of looks like we're about to go into a
bear market and that was it it's over but. But to me, it's too obvious.
And because BlackRock reported the Bitcoin ETF was their most successful ETF in history
and they made so much money on it, I think they are going to drag on this bull run as
long as they possibly can until the market's completely exhausted.
I don't think we maxed out yet, partially because of the FOMC not cutting the rates as aggressively.
So I agree with you when you said
maybe the Trump administration will move Powell out
and put somebody else in.
I think that will actually be very bullish for the market.
So I could see some kind of reverse, uno reverse in 2026.
That kind of is like a gotcha you know after everyone
already thought it was over and i still really believe that and then um also that like uh the
we're hitting an all-time high on a certain uh certain ketinfused meme right now, which is amazing.
So I'm looking at the chart right now.
But yeah, the meme economy is the creative economy,
and I think that's what the draw is for the younger generation.
I don't think the bull cycle is over.
I think we're going to see all-time highs 20, 26 at some point.
I got a question, and you might know this.
I found out today a line of ketamine is called a disco line.
I live in a gated community.
I don't know what this is.
He fucking knows all this shit.
Yeah, people are freaks here, man.
Like, they're actual freaks, dude.
I actually had a woman, woman like a few days ago um tell me something absolutely shocking but i can't say it on this space
but it like some people are very bold here and they do very bold things um right so um
for me it's a disco line yeah i don't know i found that out today i mean i've i've been sober for
oh god i mean i'll drink occasionally but i mean i haven't done anything in like
oh god it's gotta be seven and a half eight years now so yeah i found that out today i was like what
the hell is what the hell is going on i mean i can't help you i don't do drugs personally but
i've i've seen some shit especially at art basil did know Art Basel is all about doing drugs? I didn't know that.
It is. When the boys went to BTC Miami in 2023, I saw some very well-known influencers doing some very questionable activities in a porta potty.
But I'm not going to say anything outside of that.
going to say anything outside of that.
There are Vcs right um that are really strange
and like like low-key do some of the some of the things that like you see uh the women post on here
as far as like creepy men that's actually a real thing, dude.
Like if you remember like in high school or whatever, whenever there would be like parties, there would always be like, where's my hug? The where's my hug guy?
That's carried on over to the crypto market, except that guy is now like a weird VC.
He's like the weird VC in crypto.
There should be like a weird VC
Yeah, because most people that you see
they're there for work, right?
Like the people that you see in booths,
they're getting paid for the day,
or they work for a company, right?
It's usually one of the two.
They either hire models to pass out flyers for their booths, depending on the protocol, of course.
Or you actually have actual founders in those booths or in those specific site events.
So right now, crypto culture is kind of weird but at some point it'll
probably translate over to how like the bitcoin conferences are now which is more like corporate
um but it probably won't happen for like another five years to be honest um it probably won't happen until crypto's actual first multi-year bear market
uh which probably happens after the ai boom and bust like the first ai boom and bust i think
that's what's going to cause like the actual first crypto multi-year downtrend but for now um that's it's probably it's probably not not gonna happen
um yeah it's probably not going to happen but yeah i've never done um ketamine before
uh ever i've never done any like hard drugs at all i think even with alcohol like the most i've ever drank was like a shot of gray
goose which was like 10 years ago and um i had like a quarter of a strawberry watermelon daiquiri
um like a quarter a quarter of it right probably like five sips because it was actually good
but it tasted like a fruit drink only a few sips of that so i i i'm i i'm an individual that likes
being sober man um because before you know it dude i'll get a broccoli kid haircut and i'll start i'll start trading like one of
these axiom kids bro and only focus on like five minute time frames but uh anyways guys i'm gonna
go ahead and sign off here give everyone here a follow follow the bb account we'll be back tomorrow
Again, this is Market Talk.
I go live here throughout the week at 3.30 p.m. ESC start time.
We usually yap here for about an hour, hour and a half.
Check out our YouTube show called Market Talk.
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That show is hosted at 11 a.m. EST.
That's for all things TA, charts, graphs, stuff like that.
That being said, God bless you all.
I want to give a thank you to my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ
for allowing me another day of health.
Talk markets with you all.