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Market Talk-BTC 180k soon!? $SOL and $Pump make new ATH soon??
Recorded: Sept. 15, 2025 Duration: 1:27:31Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent Market Talk session, crypto enthusiasts discussed the bullish sentiment surrounding the market, with significant developments such as Pump's new highs, Kyle Samani's billion-dollar investment in Solana, and the upcoming Gemini IPO. The conversation highlighted trends indicating growth potential across various tokens and the increasing interest from institutional investors.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you Music Oh Oh Oh my God, the earth rises high
Don't let it just trust me
Just without a lie, you should stay still oh
Oh, my God. Oh I know. It's a... That thing is so.
Awesome. I'm sorry. Oh, fire, storm is fire
When the earth keeps me living
When the earth keeps me living
When the earth keeps me living
When the earth keeps me living
When the earth keeps me living I'm tired to be in I'm tired to be in
I'm tired to be in
I'm tired to be in
I'm tired to be in
I'm tired to be in
I'm tired to be in I'm tired to be in Thank you. Music I'm going to go. guys welcome back to the show excuse me um spaces for whatever reason would not
let me uh get off mute and um it is what it is sometimes these things happen but guys
i hope you all had a fantastic weekend welcome back to market talk brought to you by bb i'm your
host wabi we're gonna go ahead and yap uh right off the get-go i really don't have much to say
to be honest as i said on friday's stream sometimes you just have to let the market play out and
certainly i'm not gonna bore you guys with lower time frame stuff.
This market is just going to be up and to the right.
Fed is going to cut rates in not 24 hours, in 48 hours.
And usually on Tuesdays, I stream on Twitch.
Rather, I'm going to get back to streaming on Twitch and X Live tomorrow.
And Market Talk will be back on
wednesday tuesdays we usually take a break off of streaming here on spaces and also on youtube
and it is going to be absolutely insane especially when powell announces the end of quantitative
tightening and over the weekend we had Pump hit new highs exactly as predicted.
It's been an outperformer in the entire market over the last few weeks.
We gave the thesis so much here on this show that we had the comment section talking about,
can you talk more about ETH instead of Pump?
Pump is boring.
And it actually went into price discovery.
And you still have more shorts than longs on pump.
This is a token that has now surpassed Hyperliquid in 24-hour revenue back-to-back.
And the thesis remains parity against Hyperliquid.
And to be honest, man, most of these alts still look like dog water.
Still making lower highs relative actually yeah lower highs relative to uh their may highs only been a handful of alts to be
honest but there has been some insane opportunity on chain and i just don't think soul is going to
go anywhere anytime soon and this market still has many more legs to come.
We have Kyle Samani going Tom Lee mode.
He bought over a billion in spot Seoul.
I think it happened this last weekend that just passed.
So absolutely insanity is coming to Solana.
And as far as BTC, to be honest, man, I think we just need the S&P at like 6700 or something like that
and then we'll probably see 150 to 180k I think that's a target we've had on the show for a minute
um going into the second half of the year and uh IWM once again close into price discovery
close not exactly just yet but very very very close
240 high for the uh election was like 242 we tested that on friday i believe so we're inching
in price discovery on that end but now it's just a matter of patience and not sitting in all coins that have
no active buyers. Truly, a lot of these alts don't even have active buyers. We have a trade in front
of us with treasury companies. Now you're probably going to have treasury companies buying spot pump.
It is the asset to own if you want a slice of the cake when it comes to everything on-chain.
Just how DeFi was a massive thing in 2020 and your token of choice as far as high caps to be someone who partakes in that upside, it was Link.
Link has been topped out against Bitcoin for like five years almost.
And I don't really think Pump is topped out against BTC.
It's only now that Pump has actually gone into price discovery.
I mean, it's only a token that's two months old.
And that's really what I have to say as far as markets go, guys.
I'm not going to go ahead and yap about the same thing that I yapped about on Friday.
But I understand Donnie has some charts to share with you all.
I also have a few people up on the panel.
And as always, guys, this show is going to be a discussion.
I'm definitely not going to be asking questions left and right.
This is not the Jay Leno show.
This isn't the Howard Stern show.
It's not Dave Letterman or any stuff like that. I see Donnie's messaging me. Oh, it's not dave letterman or any stuff like that i see donnie's messaging me oh
it's okay all right i'll pass it over to some to some other people first man but guys go ahead and
show some love to the space before we go ahead and officially get started just click the spaces tab
once you guys do that just smash up the like button hit up that repost that retweet button guys and today's water
of choice is iceland spring water it's the glass one i think it's called icelandic it's probably
one of the greatest waters i've ever tasted so what you want to do to start off your day is
squeeze a lime and the amount of concentration the amount of energy that you'll
feel simply from that is insane really iceland water best water ever don't drink zephyr hills
don't drink dasani drink iceland water water is very important especially if you yap for a living like myself.
But interesting times in the market.
Now we have polls as far as a 50 basis point goes for not this Fed meeting, but the next one.
So, guys, if we're really going to go under this regime similar to what occurred after the 98 crash, which I think that's the pattern that we followed. I think what we saw
in April of this year was very similar to the 1998 crash, if you look at the NASDAQ. And soon after
that, the Fed started going on a spree of rate cuts, and the market absolutely chatted exuberantly.
And I mean exuberantly. I think the nasdaq tripled or something
like that now i'm not calling for that but uh target that i've had for the nasdaq for some
time is the inflation adjusted all-time high which at this point is at like 31 000 or something like
that uh we also had gemini ipo i believe uh on friday So a few more crypto IPOs are probably going to be happening.
So I think we have about a year left at the very least, especially if it's only now where
we're switching from a regime from restricting liquidity to more of a neutral stance.
And business cycle goes from hawkish to neutral to dovish, ISM expanding to 50.
That's going to be the real meat of the
bone for this cycle and truth be told i am so excited for what's going to happen on chain and
you know shout out to prometheus as well he called out avantus the ticker is a v and t
that ticker is up like 3x and something something about me, right, is that I barely get credit for any of the calls that I do.
I don't get highlights.
I don't get shouted out or anything like that.
And that's fine, right?
That's totally fine.
People know whenever I call a ticker that they know what's up.
And whenever I see someone that's up and coming and sharing their tickers, I like to give people shout outs.
I like to give recognition when it's due.
So shout out to Prometheus.
AVNT has gone absolutely parabolic since his call on Friday.
And he also called KTA right as we were bottoming out.
The majors were about to form their bottom in March.
The market didn't bottom until april
but he called out kt and during that time frame kt did a 10x and then i think it i probably i'm
pretty sure it did a 10x after that as well uh i think he called it out at like 10 mil fdv or
something like that but shout out to him man you gotta shout out your own people man If you see even if you don't hold the bag you still have to give a shout out man like you this market needs more
Winning stories it needs more winning stories
It needs people that stick out their necks with new tickers because too often you see people
Shout out the same onk tickers thesek tickers that only have five to ten buyers
and it creates some engagement on x but um i mean outside of that guys had a pretty awesome
training session over the last weekend um did some lower body on friday upper body on saturday
and after this i'm going to go ahead and train some lower body.
One of the goals that I have before the end of the year is to front squat 500 for five reps.
Looking forward to that.
Hopefully, Solano is trading above 400 at that point in time.
It surprised me if like Seoul gets to 500 by the end of the year, though, instead of 400,
which I think is possible with all these
treasury companies.
I think with the amount of money that Somani and Novogratz are raising, I think it equates
to almost 10% of the circulating market cap for Solana, which is going to be absolutely
insane because that's exactly what Tom Lee did for Ethereum.
So that is going to be absolutely insane.
And the biggest beneficiary of that is probably going to be spot pump.
It's probably going to be some spot pump.
That is the best quote unquote beta to be exposed to.
I really don't like using that word because at the end of the day, there is no beta.
It's just buyers and sellers at the fair market price.
But look, while Donnie gets ready, I got Josh up here, Captain, Prometheus, Afro.
I'm not even sure who to pass it to.
So I'm just going to go by what the panel says.
Josh, what's going on, man?
I don't really have any questions, to be honest.
Really, questions kind of bore me, but what do you want to speak about, man? If there's anything
on your mind, feel free to give some of your thoughts on the market, your game plan for the
rest of the year. Fed meeting in two days, we already know what's going to happen. Fed's going
to cut, likely stop quantitative tightening.
It's been like three years since we've been under that regime.
And things are getting really exciting when it comes to all things markets, man.
I'll pass it over to you first.
Yeah, no, thanks for having me on here, man, today.
It's been trying to get together for a couple months now.
It's been quite the summer.
But, yeah, I mean, there's a lot kind of that I would say I'd be focusing on right now. It's been quite the summer. But yeah, I mean, there's a lot kind of that I would say I'd
be focusing on right now. I think there's like one point I can really discuss and then kind of
just hand off the panel here because there's so many altcoins that are just going berserk. Some
of our portfolios are doing really, really nicely here, especially over the last few days.
But, you know, really the biggest point I would take right now is just with what's coming up at
the Federal Reserve with the interest rate cut. I think people need to start really preparing and setting goals.
I want people to react in here right now, Spam 100s, if you guys have a goal or strategy
in crypto.
Because if you don't have a goal or strategy in crypto yet, I think people really need
to be looking at their portfolios right now and asking themselves, am I prepared for another
leg higher?
Am I prepared for even a correction in a lot of ways?
The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates at a time of a very, very weak labor market and
conditions. And inflation is still trickling back into the economy. So what we're looking at over
the next few months is an institutional wave where I think you're going to see, obviously,
the stagflation roll over into the markets, which means high performance on risk on assets.
The stock market doing well.
The S&P just closed at literally the highest point it ever has in history.
You're probably going to be seeing Bitcoin, altcoins starting to run here.
But what people are failing to do right now, and I already see this, and this is a very, very common mistake that people do every single cycle,
what ultimately leads them to round tripping their bags,
is they have no goal. And I think the goal, and this is my personal goal to cycle,
but my goal is just to protect whatever wealth generation I create. And the reason why I say
that, and specifically I'm going to result back to Bitcoin here, 50, 25, 25, 50%, taking profits,
rolling into Bitcoin as much as I possibly can, is I do believe that this is
going to be a more stair-stuffed up environment. I think Bitcoin is breaking away fundamentally from
the rest of the industry. And people need to remember that altcoins are looked at as very
risk-on assets here. So it's really good that the Fed is cutting rates. We all love that. That's
great for expansion. But you have to remember why they're cutting rates. And you also remember,
you know, over the last three years, the government has been lying through the BLS
at job employment numbers, meaning that our labor markets are way weaker than they expected,
which is going to result in a way or result in an industry or economy where wages are being
outpaced by inflation. And so, you know, a lot of people, I think one of the biggest points I'd
like to make today, too, is just a lot of people want to ignore the fact that alt season has already started.
Yes, obviously, inflation, I agree, the Fed's going to continue to print and it's going to continue to expand, evaluate the dollar that's going to be good for risk on assets.
But total two, total three are at the same all time highs as they were in 2021.
as they were in 2021. And we've seen a huge injection of liquidity into these markets.
And we've seen a huge injection of liquidity into these markets.
So as you guys see, just altcoins pump here, especially if we see it over the next few weeks
or in Q4 this year, just really make sure that this time around, you're taking those profits
and not being super greedy, looking at wanting that 5, that 10, that 15x. You're going to hit
them, dude. I was actually watching Avantis Prometheus as well this weekend. We were looking
at it at 30 cents.
That thing's at like $1.20 today.
OTPP is up literally 2, 3x.
There's runners that are taking place.
Pump up 4x, I think, from its bottom here.
So just be, I would say, aware of that.
And definitely, I'm just going to go home
with the fact that I think everybody
should be trying to protect as much capital.
Protect your wealth.
Buy Bitcoin and just take profits as this market starts to continue.
Josh, I'll be real with you, bro.
I have my brain turned off when it comes to pump.
As in like you don't know what's happening with it?
No, no.
Like I have my brain turned off.
Like the thesis is so simple. You don't know what's happening with it? No, no. Like, I have my brain turned off.
Like, the thesis is so simple.
If Pump is not doing well, there's not going to be an alt season.
There's just not.
Without PumpFun, there would be no on-chain.
It is the greatest startup story ever told alongside Hyperliquid.
And it's what's given this market life over the last couple of months. Troll went to 300 mil, Useless went to almost half a bill. The list goes on and
on and on and on. And that airdrop that they're doing, I think is going to spark on chain like
that first Jupiter airdrop did in January of 2024.
And that was when Whiff started going to billions.
Popcasts started going insane, et cetera, et cetera.
So, I mean, look, I've been asking this question on the show, Josh.
I know I think the last time we streamed together was like like um early august maybe and that was um that was on the twitch show
slash x live show yep and there's a question that i've been asking man for weeks now for almost
three weeks now um so pump has been in the top 100 uh since we got in at like sub 003, market cap was like at a bill, just over a bill.
And I asked people this question and I asked it very earnestly, right?
And honestly, because maybe there's something I'm missing.
Maybe I could be wrong.
But I took a look at every single token in the top 100, right right i compared it to pump across every single metric
and i i just don't see a better trade within the top 100 that has a setup like pump something that
would benefit a low interest rate environment where a company could borrow capital at effectively
almost zero, use it to prop up their infrastructure like we saw last cycle.
And even for the current environment that we have right now, right, revenue producing platform,
biggest product market fit that we've seen basically since DeFi last cycle.
And I just don't see a better trade in the top 100.
That's not Pump, man.
So I'm going to ask you that question, right?
And I know I said I wasn't going to be asking questions, but that is one of the only questions
that I'll ask.
Is there a better token out there in the top 100 that would be a better trade than Pump?
In the immediate short time frame, I'm not talking one year, two years, I'm talking right here,
right now. I just don't see it, Josh. I really, really don't. And even with tokens that are
multiple years old, whenever I see tokens that are multiple years old, all I see are exhausted
buyers from a lot higher waiting to get out, if I'm being honest with you, man.
Yeah, I don't.
I'm trying to think off the top of my head at top 100 projects, what would have a better—
because I agree with the thesis there in the short term.
I think especially with seeing what happened with Alex Becker, there's a lot of hype coming to it,
and you're going to see a nice rotation of that.
I would say the only other thing I see beating Pomp—
because, again, I think it was the
most, when it was at two, three cents, man, it was the most obvious rotation. We saw the insider
cabal pushing Bonk live. They're like, oh, Bonk's going to be it. Bonk's going to do that.
I'd say definitely the only other one that would contend with it, I would say definitely watch
Bonk because I believe Pomp has passed it by quite a bit, by about a billion dollars in market
cap. And just the alpha there is that those cabals tend to rotate capital. So, but I would say,
yeah, I would actually agree with your thesis in that. I'd say the only other thesis that would
probably, I think, will outperform it, but I don't know if Aerodrome's in the top. If BASE does look
to do a huge airdrop farm
for the base ecosystem token
that they just talked about today,
I do think a lot of base-based plays
are going to absolutely crush it,
which is why I think you've seen a lot of these moves.
Again, Avantis from Prometheus,
he's talking about that RWA tokenization platform,
a very, very clear play.
And seeing base back those,
I think you can see some rewards being built into it.
Aerodrome's number 74.
Yeah, I see it right here.
Okay, so I think Aerodrome's another really easy trade.
I think if they actually announce a base token, I'm going to imagine there's going to be a lot of speculation in terms of the airdrop. compete with that unless you had something that we can't foresee which is like robin hood using
ondo or something that's like not something we can really predict but all of a sudden
it tokenizes the entire market and just pushes a ton of volume um i hopefully that answers that
question but i think you're on i think you're on a right path there with the thesis of Pump on them.
Does AeroDrum buy back their own token?
I'm also speaking bullishly on Pump because it is the top revenue
producing platform in the entire market.
I think over the last 12 months, Pump
Fund has made more net income than the NASDAQ.
The thesis is right in front of everyone's face.
And it's like, oh, Pump Fund is now consensus.
How is it consensus if hype is still valued versus pump at like a 4x, 5x premium still?
It's insane also like hypes pump doesn't have nearly as many competitors like hype there's so many perpetuals that are like launching right now
that are being backed by vcs i agree with that like pump has the narrative and of producing more
revenue than ever i think that's uh i don't know people that like were betting on the failure of
pump fun i was like dude people are like pretty much lighting themselves on fire to
stream there, dude.
It's like the power that they have for a narrative control is huge.
And I think arguably that PumpFun will, well, I don't even know, what is PumpFun at in terms
of market cap?
I'm going to guess like a three, four million or four billion.
Like it's not even, you know, like it could could easily be a $15, $20 billion play.
You know what I mean?
So, Pump right now, I'll just give it to the audience here.
So, Pump right now, as of this live stream, it's actually, yeah, it's actually right now, it just made another fresh local high.
So, Pump's Cirque market cap is, like, just under three bill.
FDV is at 8.4.
So why would something like AVAX trade a lot higher?
And all AVAX does, by the way, is just give out grants to people who tweet about them.
That's all they do.
Why is the pump valued so much less than an unk coin it's a gas
token which is useless it's your gas for transactions yeah that that's it and like what
is there to do on avex like that's that's that is my question for for a lot of these oh ones
uh he's an rwa is i mean rwa is like solana has been the front runner on that for a minute
um yeah i think uh i think one of like look at pengu like narrative obviously utility doesn't
matter in most cases which is sad i hate saying that but it's like pengu was a meme before it
was a you know revenue generating brand if that makes sense yeah and
talking about pengu i think they have a lot of um virality like their games their toys or plushies
and all that stuff like i'll tell you what man like retail is not gonna buy uh link or any of
that stuff like i i frankly don't even know if retail is ever going to come back i think it's
just like a handful of people that survived 2022 a few that came in over the last few years
institutions buying up high caps and the few that get in they use that drive to to to just
buy anything on chain man um and i think like the reason why we've we haven't really seen like a huge squeeze
a huge squeeze on alts this year outside of that massive echo bubble in april and may is because
a lot of like the altcoin froth right the few memes that went to billions and billions
uh centralized exchange tokens all that stuff happened before eth and soul went into
price discovery and usually it's the reverse of that it's so on eth that have to go into price
discovery and then the other alts follow i think that's why like a lot of these tokens that ran up
hard before aren't really running as hard a lot of those buyers are just exhausted and they want to
get out and people are looking for
new narratives they're looking for things that are real intangible everyone was discussing like
oh when xyz happens we're going to dump on retail we're going to dump on new buyers
retail is going to come in and buy our bags and it's like you're talking about your industry as
if it were like a massive pump and dump to be honest and like you asked
go ahead i got a question those pump fund metrics is that with the 500 million dollar raise or not
uh that's without so pump funds yeah so pump funds um pump funds net rev over the last like 12 months
is greater than the nasdaq and they are like the top revenue producing platform um over the last like 12 months is greater than the nasdaq and they are like the top revenue producing
platform um over the last few weeks in the crypto space so the first one is pump second one is hype
and the third one is cards that that's another gem that i've been talking about cards the company
behind it crypto collective they make close to a million dollars a day just off of gotchas. So what happens when they start adding other markets?
So it's like I put this in the discord
group via voice message
but if you were to ask someone in like 2017 or 2018 right
Like if you're an uncle like myself
The best story would be why isn't there an altcoin or a project that produces revenue
it has metrics something where i can actually do i actually do some like vc analysis right
venture capitalist analysis see a spreadsheet how much money they produce what's their product
market fit um is is their mind share growing is their market share growing where are they
as far as a sect that they're at pump fun
would be it it would be pump fun and hyper liquid and maybe ena maybe um that dilution is insane
on ena uh fdv is also insane um keep in mind uh keep in mind aerodrome's at a million dollars a
week in buybacks that's 365 mil i i think pump fund is doing that on a daily basis like pump
fund is buying over seven figures of their own token on a daily basis i think they've bought
back like five percent of the total circulating supply since the glass half full foundation
um initiative got announced where all the fees that they generated over the last 18 months since they went live would be going back to their own token
and to the sole ecosystem.
What they're doing in the content creators ecosystem is super cool as well.
I mean, you guys all know how hard it is to monetize content in this space.
And for them to be able to allow content creators
to monetize their content the
way they are and make meaningful you know capital in the process is very very cool as well
yeah yeah i i hope there's a way like out of the token creation process man um i really hope that doesn't have to be the case like 100 of the
time um but for now it is but uh i just don't really see them going anywhere anytime soon
um to be honest and in a bull market it's always the one thing that's like not consensus and seems
too good to be true that rallies the hardest last cycle it was luna the
cycle before that it was neo like dude if if anyone does any research on neo it was like
the number one altcoin um i think in in china or korea one of those two one of those two i i can't
remember i know dong face chinese so i think it's probably
china it was it was marketed everywhere this guy was meeting with chinese officials they were
talking about like how neo is going to be integrated into their smart cities man but you
have not seen a single altcoin being shilled like that where like like the actual government is
meeting with with some guy that that just raised money in less than a year bro um so their product
was called ant shares i think they raised in like the summer of 2016 or something like that
and then less than a year later this guy da, Da Hongfei, is meeting with Chinese government officials.
Everyone's talking about NIO.
And I think it got capped at 20 bill.
So, I mean, what's the inverse of that, right?
Instead of it being government and high officials and all that stuff, what if you put that in the hands of the people?
It'd probably be pump, right?
It'd probably be pump.
And I know people are probably going to get tired of like me yapping about this.
But like, you know, one thing I think just I think it was just consensus within the BB Discord, like the next rally as far as fundamentals is going to be RWAs.
So it's real world assets.
It's real.
And it's an asset, right?
It's a generating, producing asset. And it's real and it's an asset right it's a generating producing asset and it's real it's
tangible whether it's all this other stuff is just like um like it's just in production right
what's the best rwa the best rwa is dollars yeah yeah because people sell their crypto for bucks
man oh talking about bucks donnienie, are you back, brother?
Is Donnie back?
What's going on, Donnie, bro?
Feel free to give some of your thoughts, man.
The setup is insane.
We've been talking about Pump for weeks now.
Sol BTC and Sol ETH, by the way, put in some Monster Weekly closes.
I forgot to mention that, by the way put in some monster weekly closes i forgot to mention that by the way i think also others btc put in um put in another uh local high fresh high since those um since
those june lows so donnie what's going on bro how are you feeling man bro i'm feeling good i'm
excited to get uh this fomc out the way just so we can see kind of where the price takes it after that.
Overall, just super bullish on the entire
setup. It's just really nice to
see. I've just been watching gold from
the bottom, basically, ever since
I had the 3.5k rally
and from their arranging, just
keeping a good eye on that as kind
of the main
forward guidance on kind of global
financial conditions and how BTC should play
out if we're patient enough. And just looking at this chart that I shared, you can see the
dollar and the gold chart have been quite inversely correlated. And recently, obviously,
gold broke out very convincingly after reaccumulating for some time. It's basically
sniffing out the DXY drawdown that I think is going to happen as soon as the FOMC takes place.
Obviously, if they're cutting into this environment, I think it's going to be bearish the dollar.
The US Treasury side is issuing a ton of new debt as well over the next two quarters.
Again, bearish the dollar, bullish global liquidity, bullish gold.
Gold is clearly sniffing it out., bullish global liquidity, bullish gold. Gold is clearly
sniffing it out. And we're just basically following gold. So we don't know exactly where we are on
the gold chart in terms of BTC, but we know that it's been kept down and hasn't broken out,
even though equities have been doing super well. Russell's been recovering super well.
BTC has kind of been stagnating and lagging, but I think a super sharp move is coming
in the short term. It could really
happen
based on how this FOMC goes.
I have my own takes on it.
I think
if it's a positive reaction, if they do a
50 basis point cut and it's a positive reaction,
I honestly think you could see all-time highs
within the next two weeks. But we'll just see how it plays out. There's many scenarios. There's a positive reaction. I honestly think you could see all-time highs within the next two weeks.
But we'll just see how it plays out, right?
There's many scenarios.
There's a lot to digest from the FOMC,
kind of therefore guidance on potentially even liquidity
if they take out,
or if they stop quantitative tightening
and see how many rates they project
on their dot plot and things like that.
But yeah, we're going to know in the next week or so.
And then just watch the BTC chart,
see if we get an impulsive rally above 17.5.
And then, yeah, I'm just targeting a new all-time high.
But if not, I think BTC will probably range for maybe a little bit longer.
It could still obviously head towards like 120 and higher,
maybe even close to the all-time high.
But maybe not have the follow-through that we need for a breakout
for some time in my range for a little bit longer,
kind of following what gold did
and then eventually break out.
I think the probability of the low being in
at that 107k series of price action that we had
is pretty high now that we've cleared 114.9,
which was my level to clear.
And yeah, just have to be a bit more patient.
But the thing is, even though BTC, let's say,
if it doesn't have an impulsive breakout in the immediate term,
it's still in a position where Bitcoin dominance looks kind of weak.
And you've got things like Sol BTC, Sol ETH,
even ETH BTC still maintaining super bullish structure on a high time frame
to where every time BTC does approach the high,
you could have some pretty good rallies across the board
and especially on new runners and things like that.
But ultimately, because
gold has broken out again and it's probably
going even higher as soon as the DXY
takes another leg lower,
you just have to be patient for the real
run to start taking place
because we still haven't even had BTC
versus gold go into price discovery.
We haven't had any major rotations out of gold into Bitcoin. But I think at some point soon,
BTC will diverge and massively outperform gold this cycle. It just makes sense to me.
The digital version of gold in a new digital economy that's taking place is going to outpace
it over time, every liquidity cycle that we have. So no different this time. And again,
the holy trifecta that we've got going on right now, dollar headed even lower, the business cycle
picking up and the Russell is actually sniffing that out, getting super close to the all time
high right now before the ISM has upticked in a big way.
And then they're cutting into that.
And probably cutting over a long time horizon
as Trump tries to get his grip on the Fed board
and things like that.
So yeah, lots of things to stay bullish over
and basically just keep your conviction high
because it will play out.
It's just a matter of time.
And I really do think that
people aren't positioned accordingly
for how much upside can take place
and for how long that upside can last.
People are positioned.
Don't get me wrong.
There's people who are 40% and 50% and 30% and and whatever i just think there's going to be a massive chasing event i remember every other cycle
that's played out i didn't partake in 2017 i started trading in 2019 but i know when the whole
broad when the whole market's floor starts to escape uh to the upside that's when the real
fomo begins because you know it's fine to have let say Avantus like you guys talked about run away from you
or Pump run away from you. Cool there's a hundred
other opportunities out there that will spawn
but when the whole market's floor starts
to get away from you and your high conviction bets that
you were looking at start to run away
it just creates this perpetual
forward loop of FOMO
that can last for a lot of months
and escape really quickly with really shallow
pullbacks as that environment gets realized. This whole time we've been conditioned to expect round trip
charts, 90% drawdowns, 95% drawdowns, 80% drawdowns. If that completely shifts to the opposite of that,
you'll see how much upside the entire market can bring. So I'm just basically waiting for that pivotal moment,
which I think can happen really soon
now that you've got the Fed jumping in
to the already bullish Trump playbook setup.
And yeah, just waiting for this FOMC.
I think it'll be a good one.
Donnie, how's your training going, by the way, bro?
My training? Yeah, training, gym. donnie that's so spot on donnie how's your training going by the way bro my training yeah training gym oh it's going good bro i'm kind of just chilling i came off a cut and just started you know increasing my calories and stuff like that because my
head wasn't working properly i think i got a little bit too lean
and uh yeah i'm just maintaining for now. And yeah, it's going good.
So you know the term like tries, buys and all that stuff, right?
Yeah, yeah. You're going to hit me with that joke, aren't you?
Yeah, yeah, dude.
I mean, it would just seem like people that are trying to overcomplicate this, bro.
I have a saying.
I have a saying that I've been saying here on the show basically all year, right?
Don't try and get by or you'll get dealt with and trapped because you get it right triceps biceps traps and
all that stuff i actually made that i actually made that joke at the gym this weekend and uh
it was actually quite a catch um we were watching the canelo and crawford fight and uh i mentioned that joke to a few of the lads
there and it was a great time that was a great fight by the way the canelo and crawford fight
uh did you catch that fight man that was a pretty good i did i did it was a good one
yeah and then bro gave uh gave the 21 belts to canelo as like a sign of respect that that that was pretty og of him to
do man but yeah the setup is crazy man and you know donnie that that's how you know you're in
a bull market like if you miss out on xyz ticker that's how you know you're in a bull market like
i saw this at xyz market cap right like dude i saw kindness at like four mil and then like 36 hours later it went to almost 50
or it's now close to 50 now um and that's just that's just something that you're gonna have to
deal with right i saw i saw streamer coin at like two mil and it ran all the way to like 40
that's just how you know you're in a bull market whenever you see these insane opportunities hit you.
Onchain is absolutely starving right now.
Well, not starving, but eating, excuse me.
I just think in between, man, the hyper-rotation games with this whole streaming thing, which I honestly think is just hyper-rotation.
It's meant to add on to your gems, in my opinion, man.
And that's what we saw last year.
You remember, bro, like during AI,
you would have these little periods where like for two days
it would go back to the TikTok talk meta or the animal coin meta.
And then all that liquidity that was sucked out of AI
would go back into AI, right?
So I'm excited for what's to come man yeah i've also noticed like
um with all these new metas quote unquote right there's like a lot of complaints and comparisons
to the ai meta but i think the key ingredient that everyone's missing on like labeling metas
and how well they're performing is literally the market conditions. You had a huge breakout after a 200-day consolidation
in Q4 of 2024 to where BTC
shot up from, it was approaching the old time I have 74K, boom, shot up
past 100K. That is super euphoric market conditions for
any meta to do well. And AI was just at the right place at the right
time for that. I think, for example, this cards meta or whatever,
it was actually quite interesting at the start.
Had you had had a broader market expansion like that,
while that narrative came out,
it would have probably been 5x bigger.
It's not necessarily that the meta was so bad.
It's more so that it didn't have that key ingredient
of the market itself expanding so rapidly
like it did in Q4 of 2024.
So I think you're going to have a bunch of new metas
come out when those conditions are present,
which in my view is it could even be in the immediate term
or short to medium term.
Yeah, I remember that, man.
The runners on chain every single week would be insane. And dude, if cards actually did come out in Q4 of last like it was honestly it was honestly crazy and um
right now and like trad fi and all that stuff uh you are starting to see ai come back uh but with
crypto it's it's kind of weird at this point because before trends in trad fi would trickle
down into crypto but now they're almost at opposite ends of the spectrum.
Where in TradFi, you have ridiculous PE ratios and all that stuff.
In crypto, now you're actually starting to see some incredible valuations come out where the amount of money that some of these protocols generate, like a pump fund um would obviously mark pump fun at a way way
way higher market cap and if it was trad fi pump fun would be way higher right now but it's like
you said right like the market right now is just waiting for a catalyst where all this dormant
liquidity where trad fi has at least i think it's trad fi where trad fi has, at least I think it's TradFi, where TradFi has cemented themselves
within these stable coins ready
to size into some liquid plays.
And if you look at cards,
the liquidity pool is almost 10 mil.
This isn't some like random shit coin
with very little liquidity where you can size up.
Like this is one of the largest liquidity pools
in the entire space right now.
Same thing with Pump.
And I just don't think that the billions
and billions of stable coins that have been minted so far in q3 is because retail is excited for a
rate cut dude retail is starving right now there's a reason why like you didn't even see pepe being
spoken about to retail and i i do have this like dubious speculation where memes
like with bonk and pepe were all launched by their respective l1 foundations being the soul
foundation and e foundation i don't think like it's as grassroots as doge was if that makes sense
right but it is what it is we got uncle mike uncle mike man i i love what uncle mike says
sometimes about kid analysts because i've seen so much of them over the over the last few days
and for those of you that didn't catch the last space uh we did a space on friday that lasted like
two and a half hours even though i was kind of shooting for one but then uncle mike showed up
and when uncle mike showed when uncle mike shows up the conversation gets like very extended in a
good way catch that replay by the way guys if you guys didn't but uncle mike what's going on man
how was your weekend um how many miles did you hike man uh what wines did you taste and what
steak did you rather welcome welcome back man hey guys um
on friday night i actually had a 2022 paul perneau beyond venue but tard mantra chet grand crew white
burgundy to start with the hamachi and then follow that up with the 2009 chateau latour which
was in the decanter as we were finishing the grand Coup White Burgundy. And then also on ice at the same time, we had a 2001 Chateau de Chem,
which is not only one of the greatest sort of dessert wines or white wines
in the history of human life on this planet,
2001 is also one of the greatest vintages of Chateau de Chem ever.
And all of this was, of course, to celebrate my wife's birthday.
It wasn't actually her birthday, but we were within a few days on either end and so we felt that it qualified and since
it was a Friday night I could get a babysitter it was a no-brainer this
market is starting to do what I think we all thought it would do for the last two
and a half three years this is the fun part right this is the part where it's
easy where like the hardest part is to stay
position it's tempting to want to get off the ride because you know maybe you've already achieved
something that approaches life-changing money or whatever but I just don't see I don't see any
signs of of a typical topping process I don't see any signs any heuristics that would sort of tell
you that we're getting near the end I'm actually seeing more early cycle signs all of a sudden,
with the exception of the Bitcoin treasury space,
which is behaving like too many kid analysts and event planners
and podcasters got SPACs and reverse mergers.
That's the only space that looks a little bit cooked right now,
but everywhere else looks good.
And the AI CapEx cycle, remember the people who are spending the most money there, these are the biggest companies in the world.
So if you're Microsoft, Meta, Google, Apple, Tesla, etc., why would you stop spending?
You're minting money.
Your valuation is going to become compressed at some point because even though you're a great business, like you're trading at a premium valuation, you have huge cash flow.
The biggest risk is that you don't defend your competitive advantage.
And AI is the biggest risk to these sort of entrenched platform business models in the history of these companies.
It's even a bigger risk than antitrust, right, which was probably viewed as the biggest risk to Microsoft, Meta, Google,
et cetera, over the last 20 years.
Now the biggest risk is AI.
And so if you overlay the CapEx cycle for internet data centers with the AI CapEx cycle,
what you see is that the internet data center CapEx and just sort of the general CapEx around
the internet started to decline in 2000 2001 which is right around the
time that people stopped wanting to bet on dot-com companies and you got a really painful two three
year bear market when you look at the market today right now it looks like we're still at
like the beginning of a two three four year capex cycle with the capex largely being driven by very
mature world dominating companies that basically need to spend whatever it takes
to protect their core franchise. So I just think structurally, the biggest thing the
kid analysts are getting wrong is they're looking at the world based on past analogs that no longer
apply, and they're not actually able, because they weren't around 20 years ago, they're not
actually able to understand the differences between the current situation and the situations
we've seen before. I'm not saying there won't be some downturn at some point. I'm
not saying there won't be a credit crisis or depression or pullbacks along the way. But what
I'm saying is right now, the odds are with you if you're staying long anything in the broader AI or
crypto ecosystem. The odds are with you. CapEx is increasing. It appears we're much more like early to mid cycle
than late cycle.
And the macro factors are all lining up, right?
Interest rates are going to be coming down
for the next year.
The long-term yields have already softened a bit.
The dollar is pretty weak.
You know, you look at a company like Iron.
I know we've talked about Iron a lot.
I mean, it's funny.
It was just like a few weeks ago,
I feel like we were talking about iron at 17, 18.
And you were like, oh, that's so great.
I made money in iron.
I bought it at seven or eight or whatever.
And now it's 37.
And a lot of people will look at that and go,
oh, with my simplistic, you know,
like my simplistic kid analyst hat and my spreadsheet
and my chart squiggle and my two years of experience,
like the stock went from seven to 37.
It must be overvalued. But I can just tell you from experience that the numbers on the screen right now don't
really mean anything unless you understand the full extent of the demand for power globally it
is a arms race of epic proportions and it's clear to me that it's actually just beginning not ending
and so i think the winners are going to be the ones that resist the urge to sort of cave to retail pressure to basically do the thing that's going to juice the stock tomorrow.
Right. The fastest way to do that is just sign a deal with Google tomorrow or Amazon. Right. And
like Amazon will do a deal with you and you'll make your 5% IRR and the market will mark your
stock up 50%. But then you'll look back 10 years from now and you'll be like, like oh man I sold away all this power to Amazon and we basically like didn't generate a return for
shareholders but we did get one a one-time pop right through like taking steroids and then
lifting right or eating an ice cream cone and thinking it'll give you energy like yeah you'll
have energy for 30 minutes and then you might crash right and so I see a lot of people doing
that and I think what I'd prefer to see is more people
stretching out the timeline a bit and saying, okay, how valuable is this power going to be in
a year, two years, three years? And wouldn't we like to have the option to reprice that power
and infrastructure along that curve multiple times over the next decade instead of just selling it
all away at the front part of the curve when we don't even know what the value is two, three, four years out. And so I think the market's starting to figure
that out. The kid analysts were saying it had topped at 17, 18, maybe even 15. Then they were
saying it definitely was going to top in the 20s. And then they were saying it was definitely going
to top at 30. And then it was going to have to retest the gap at 25. And now we're at 37. I've
largely lost track with them. If anyone knows what they're saying now, let me know.
I don't know if they're on vacation or whatever,
but I haven't seen many posts from them telling me exactly where it's going.
But I can just tell you from a fundamental perspective
that the market size for AI data centers is sort of like unlimited at this point.
And if you have power that's available in the next two years,
you effectively have almost no competition. Look atlo right look at oklo it's a nuclear developer sam altman's an investor like
a lot of hype it was up 15 or 18 today i don't even know if they have any revenue if they do
it's it's quite minimal and i don't know if they're going to have any scale for five years
so like that's what you're competing against.
You're competing against things that are really hyped,
where the power isn't even available for three, four, five years,
and it's being valued preemptively.
Compare that with a company like an Iron,
where Iron's just building the business organically.
Right now, from the ground up, fully vertically integrated, controlling every part of the means organically, you know, right now from the ground up, fully vertically integrated,
controlling every part of the means of production, the land, the buildings, the infrastructure,
right, the substation, all of the switch gears and the chillers and everything at the site
level that you need to run the site, such that you can go to a customer, potential customer,
and you can say, listen, like, we can provide you this service with a really good track record of being able to deliver on time, under budget, and with really high uptime.
And if anything goes wrong, we are responsible.
You don't have to call someone at the data center.
You don't have to call another company to fix the problem.
We'll fix the problem for you.
And so I just, look, I think it's pretty early days
I think the mistake a lot of people are gonna make is anchoring themselves to
prices and charts that happened before without understanding like the the sheer extent of the size of the market here
think about it more like a VC like if Sequoia or a
16z invest in coinbase right at let's say let's say a series A company with a 25 or 30 or $50 million valuation.
Do they rush to sell the stock when it goes to 5 billion?
Even though, you know, they've made a ton of money, right?
They've made 50 times or 100 times their money.
Do they rush to sell the stock if they think it's going to be a trillion dollar company?
company or do they just wait for it to go public and then sell the stock later when they think it's
Or do they just wait for it to go public and then sell the stock later when they think it's fully valued?
fully valued i think a lot of people are looking at them as charts and and tickers and numbers on
the screen and not thinking about it as if they're private companies and really thinking deeply about
what the value of this infrastructure ultimately is going to be over a longer duration and look
maybe maybe you know some of these companies shouldn't have gone public when they did, and that's the confusing thing to people.
But just because they went public maybe a little bit premature with the benefit of hindsight doesn't mean that they are going to be anchored to those sort of premature valuations forever.
Eventually, they're just going to trade at whatever their underlying economics actually are.
And again, if you understand where AI is going right now the demand is essentially unlimited
at some point these things will become overvalued
at some point sites will become overvalued
at some point power will become overvalued
but we are, at least in my view, a long way from that
so I just caution people that are posting stuff saying
you should sell based on the RSI
or you should sell because it's up since yesterday or
last week or whatever like that has nothing to do with the fundamental value of what's happening in
this ecosystem right so i'll i'll pause there because i don't want to monopolize your space
no you're good you're good uncle you're good man you're a friend of the show you've been popping
up on these shows i'm pretty sure as the market was
close to bottoming out in late march i remember that space that we had with michael green and
cantro and a few of the other tried fight guys you remember that space donnie that space went
on for like eight hours you remember that man it's probably one of the greatest shows that we've ever done here. But, man, those are some incredible points.
And I definitely feel the same way, especially in this environment.
Like, RSI just isn't enough to call a cap on some of these things,
especially when the business cycle is about to flip.
Not even dubbishly, but just towards a neutral stance but
um noah afro or donnie if you are prometheus if you guys want to throw anything yeah i got a
serious question i got a serious question for mike mike i was gifted a bottle of stags unlimited
2019 artemis cab what are your thoughts on that did you look up the price i think it's like 75 bucks
so i wouldn't spend too much time on it i'd pop it and drink it right now awesome
dude i i like the way uh uncle mike pops up in the show and and mentions uh names of wines that
i i frankly don't even know how to pronounce man after he
climbs mount ever that's money talking literally bro turning turning bucks into uh into a few
dollars they done that's correct bro uh it's that fomc meeting i truly think is going to be just as crazy as the May one.
Like people don't understand.
But going into that May meeting, the discussions that were spoken about on this space, me and Donnie had to go back to back with these gold bugs, man. And like me and Donnie, we don't even trade Tradify that much.
And we were calling for a for a melt up straight to price discovery for the s p 500
i think i i still have my old post on my personal profile saying uh that the s p was going to 6500
and i said that back in may and i was called a crazy person man a crazy person but yeah i think
i think like um people on twitter specifically they just believe these narratives or these
buzzwords that they hear and the buzzword at that time was the end of u.s exceptionalism i'll never
forget it and people really like uh gave into that thesis and like they just could not look past it
they could not look past why the dollar was going down they were like you know global liquidity is
going up but are you tracking where it's going? Are you tracking where that global liquidity is going?
It's just like, bro, it's just as simple as that it is going up. The dollar is going down.
It's not the end of the US exceptionalism, especially if they're about to, you know,
reverse that playbook that they had of the detox period to literally the complete opposite of it.
And they incrementally kept confirming it,
but people were still sold on that narrative that it is the end of US exceptionalism.
And I literally have the tweet,
as soon as you cross 5,800 on the S&P,
that narrative is going to go out the window.
And it literally did, as soon as you cross that level.
But yeah, Twitter is just believing that.
It's like, there's so many.
I can't think off the top of my head right now but they're just like regurgitate what this
guy said because he's got you know high
following and sounds a little bit smart and they don't actually
donnie the moving averages bro
the 200 day moving average that
was the thing you can't be bullish on
on the s&p unless
the s&p was above the
the 200 daily moving average
or what was it Don?
That was Mr. Joe.
The bull market
was Joe.
He was dead
wrong.
Can I just say what part of the
bull market we're in right now? We're in the part of the bull market
where Jim Chanos
a sort of formerly
famous former billionaire short selling hedge fund where Jim Chanos, a sort of formerly famous,
a former billionaire short-selling hedge fund manager who used to be like the toast of the town
and the guy would be on CNBC constantly
telling you what he was short,
who basically had to sell all of his real estate
to meet redemptions and losses in his hedge fund
because he's just shorted too much.
He's just a sourpuss.
And he's now trying to troll me
and Iron based on a comment I made as a joke. As an independent investor, I tend to agree with
your view. That's all I posted. And he's like, well, actually, Mike, you're a board member. I'm
like, well, yeah. I mean, if you've followed me even for five minutes, unfortunately, I have to
start every comment with, yes, I'm a board member of Iron. Like if you followed me for five seconds or joined any of my spaces over the last three
years, you had to hear me say it so many times that literally the other side of the troll
universe is like, Mike, you just like to brag about your board seat.
I'm like, no, I have to disclose my board seat because if I don't, I got Jim Chanos
in my face talking trash.
Even after he's lost billions of dollars, he thinks he wants to talk trash to me about the fact that I'm on this board. So that's the stage of the bull market
we're in, guys. We're winning, right? The bears have not only lost almost everything, including
their pride and most of their assets, they're about to lose literally everything. If they keep
shorting the small cap index, if they keep shorting iron or cipher or bitcoin or even strategy
like it may have worked out for him
so far to short strategy but at some point
strategy might wake up and rip his
face off. He's just not going to
make any money doing cute pair trades
in an asset class
where things go parabolic like once every
three or four years and we haven't really
gone parabolic yet. We're just setting up
the actual parabolic move you'll know when it happens because everybody who's not in these
spaces will want to all of a sudden be here. You'll get calls and texts and you'll be talking
to your Uber driver and your neighbor in the street. And they'll want to talk about what
we've been talking about for two and a half years. And we are just not there yet. I don't
know how else to tell people. Like If you are not capable of assessing that,
then you're just not going to make as much money as somebody who is. And I'm telling you,
we're not there. We're not there yet. Jim Chanos is still trolling me. He'll disappear from the
internet by the time this cycle's over. There's a little icing on the cake that very few people
hit on. It's a little Mike Howell-ish. And it goes in line with what you're saying and where we are in the bull market,
it not only hasn't started,
the primary indicator that I look at for where we are finally hit last Thursday.
And that's basically treasury market volatility.
Once the treasury market volatility rolls over,
what that implies is that the banks are going to want to buy debt and they're going
to want to sell liabilities because they need to balance their books because they've spent the last
years buying all these discounted assets and double entry accounting in the euro dollar market
means now they need to sell the liability so they can balance the books to meet regulatory compliance. So what happens is now they're selling dollars.
They're selling liabilities.
Now the world over cyclically starts to enter.
Instead of buying dollars on Forex markets, now they're buying long-dated duration debt,
and they're borrowing dollars from the euro dollar market.
So that implies interest rates come down on the long end.
That implies the dollar continues to roll over.
And that's literally the start of the market.
I just want to emphasize that as a really, really sophisticated point.
I was in New York last week with a guy who literally runs $35 billion.
I was sitting having a drink with him.
And he's like, my guys can't figure out why the long end is turning over
He's like, what do you think it is?
And even guys that are running 35 billion their analyst team their fundamental equity guys
They can't figure out they're like this doesn't make sense
like aren't we running these huge deficits like the Fed can do what it does and Trump can saber-rattle and do whatever he does
But how does that affect the long end?
And you just said something that I wish you had been there
Because I didn't say exactly what you said. I just said I thought the the long end was gonna come in anyway
Because that just seems like the direction that we're we're heading and you just you just gave like a very succinct explanation of
Why that's happening, but in addition to the Fed chopping rates by 100 200 bips
to the Fed chopping rates by 100, 200 bps, I mean, there's just going to be so much money.
I mean, it's just there's just gonna be so much money
There's going to be so much liquidity. And everybody who's whining and complaining the
last year about how hard this economy is and how tough it is, they're going to all capitulate
as bulls. They're all going to become bulls and start clapping and cheering for the bull market.
And then and only then will I become concerned. We still have a lot of people who think their
credit card data is the sign of the apocalypse. And we have a lot of people who think Japan pulling back is the sign of the apocalypse, right? We have a lot of people who think their credit card data is the sign of the apocalypse. And we have a lot of people who think Japan pulling back is the sign of the apocalypse, right?
We have a lot of people who think the small cap index not breaking out yet is the sign of the apocalypse.
And things are going to get a lot worse and everyone's going to lose their job and it's the end of the world, right?
And we need all of those crybabies and people who've been telling you to sell stocks and crypto for the last year or two.
We need all of them to flip bullish the side of the apocalypse is is really when the move indicator rips to 200 to 400
and that starts capitulating the bank's balance sheet and they need to sell their whole to
maturity assets and now literally got 15 bankruptcies here 15 bankruptcies there and
the banks literally can't meet their redemptions.
But we see that in the data, and that happens cyclically.
And it's a very simple indicator that is very, very so rarely talked about, and it's really simple.
What's your timeline on when you think we'll flip?
Because we're at the beginning, you and I agree, even though there are a lot of voices saying we've topped already,
we're much closer to the beginning of a cycle than an end of a cycle.
But what do you think your estimated timeline is for when to start becoming more cautious?
Is it three to six months, or is it more like 12 to 18 months?
I want to see some marked move.
It's such a strange question, honestly, because we literally just pushed below the weekly 200 SMA on the move indicator. Now, obviously, we're talking about a moving average on a volatility indicator. But
the point is, it's been 1,365 days since we breached that moving average to the upside.
And we have been waiting years, three and a half years for the governments around the world,
the central banks to finally get control over the volatility of global collateral pools.
And you can't even start.
The best way to probably say it, in my opinion, is it's not even a conversation to start having
right now.
You'll start to see the spikes.
Once you see the spike rip up from like 40, 50, and 60 into maybe the 200 SMA from the upside as resistance and then it gets rejected and
then you punch through it then it's time to be scared of ripped to like 100 and you're like what
the hell is going on so the kid analysts are completely wrong they shouldn't even be looking
for tops until maybe 2027 or 28 well data i i don't i don't do timelines i have i have a very
contrarian playbook.
But you've got to try to, okay, so if you're a professional investor, though, you've got to take what you said and at least try to superimpose some sort of timeline.
That way you can measure it and build a probabilistic model in advance because you're going to need time to position properly, right?
You need a time to position properly long over the last two and a half, three years.
Like you needed time to position properly long over the last two and a half, three years.
If you're really, really heavily long, you need time.
You need to start to get a little bit more defensive as you see signs.
You don't want to wait until the data is staring you in the face.
That's like waiting until the train lights are 10 feet away from you.
You want to be looking down the tracks.
So just give me your best guess based on the data you look at.
Are you thinking this is a 2026, 27, 28, 29?
Like if you had to probably wait it today, just give me your back of the envelope math.
I'm just curious.
It'd be nice to see into the middle of 2026 a marked move down in the move indicator.
We get down towards where we were at the bottom in 2020, October of 2020.
That puts us at like 37, and that's off of the most epic financialization and fiscal injection to date in history.
given the structure and shape of the economy as has changed post 2020 especially the amount of
debt that needs to roll over that was issued in 2020 and that's not including the overall rollover
of the cumulative national obligations i wouldn't be surprised to see lower than what we saw in
october of 2020 pushing down to 30 maybe the 20 20s, a wick down. And then you start
to see a big wick below like 35 into the mid 20s. Obviously, I'm looking at the chart when I say
this, and that's a decent couple of handles from here. And then that big wick would indicate some
caution. See a big wick on a weekly, definitely a monthly indicator,
and that means some volatility. Something's breaking somewhere. Someone needed to capitulate
on a huge amount, probably talking hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars worth of
debt instruments. So the early signs of volatility is what sparks because change starts at the margins.
And if someone's breaking, that means give it a couple months, someone else is going to break and then give it two months and they give it one month.
And then all of a sudden you get the knock-ons and everyone's starting to fracture all over the place.
And this is just a cyclical reality.
And this is, in my opinion, the manifestation of what we've seen over the last how many years that people call the Bitcoin cycle is really what Mike Al talks about a little more recently with
this liquidity cycle.
But I see it as a debt volatility cycle and the way the lower volatility encourages the
purchasing of debt to print dollars in the euro dollar market as compared to buying dollars
in the forex market as compared to buying dollars in the forex market
super interesting thanks for making that distinction that's a helpful
distinction and i'm going to spend more time thinking about that now that you've brought
that up but that would explain something that even very smart investors apparently are completely
bewildered about i'm seeing like chief economists at some of the biggest banks and private equity funds
in the world saying stuff like, well, if the Fed lowers rates, that's going to increase
volatility on the long end and it's going to cause long end rates to go up.
So it sounds like you don't think very highly of that view, even though it's quite common
by talking heads right now.
My two cents is the Fed is a lagging indicator.
They respond.
Obviously, everything is leads and lags.
I would say they're a lagging indicator.
They are responding to market conditions.
They know that if volatility is rolling over
and the long end is going to roll over,
they need to adjust interbank lending
such that you don't have significant distortions
in the yield curve. I think that is probably the way I would describe their response to
current market conditions. Okay. Well, I'm going to stay long,
small caps. I'm going to stay long the Bitcoin infrastructure companies. I'm going to stay long
Bitcoin, ETH. I'm going to stay long everything. It sounds like there's no reason for me to change my positioning.
With regard to trades, most certainly, I happen to be a value investor in crypto markets,
which is very contrarian.
And I just see the weirdest things happening with regard to currency supply.
And if we see like 10x or a you know multiple 20x increase in currency
supply across crypto markets things just get weird because you don't see a 10x and 20x in
valuations that's when you see the 100x and 1000x across the entire space tvl is like
it's a derivative of total dollar supply
that's awesome hey guys i gotta i gotta run i gotta talk to someone about my a derivative of total dollar supply.
That's awesome.
Hey, guys, I got to run.
I got to talk to someone about my imminent board appointment.
So unfortunately, that's going to take priority right now.
You guys enjoy the rest of the conversation.
Thanks for having me.
Bye.
Pleasure.
Captain, what RWAs utilities are you bullish on here moving forward into like Q4 into middle of 26?
RWAs are a funny topic because, you know know if you're talking about like debt instruments you're talking three and a half
percent four percent to me that's boring numbers and you know we talk a lot about meme coins so
we want something right in the middle so my two cents is once you graduate from meme coins and
you get you know your thousand x your ten thousand, and you turn a hundred bucks into 50 grand or 50 grand into one, two, three, four, five million dollars.
Then you're talking about a different style of investing or you are afforded the luxury of a
different style of investing. Cause now if you could take one mill or five mill and plow it into aerodrome at well right now aerodrome's up 450 percent
since april lows at 30 cents so if you plowed a million bucks in at the lows you're up one mil
is now worth 4.5 and 4.5 the weird thing is the way basis and cash flow works so if it was paying
20 apr at 30 cents and it's paying 20 apr at a at $0.30 and it's paying 20% APR at $1.30, that means you're
getting about 100% APR on your basis investment.
So basically, if you invested a million bucks back in April, you're getting about a million
dollars APR on that investment based on current spot price.
So things get really weird as the portfolio starts to
multiply.
Well,
you were going to say,
Captain, I was about to wrap up.
Oh, it's all good.
I heard you were going to say something else.
You know how I ramble on stuff like that.
But my two senses, RWAs are good.
It's good collateral.
Collateral is systemic, and collateral inside the crypto space allows you to print currency.
So what happens is I expect to see endogenous currency try to and hopefully catch up and surpass exogenous currency units.
You're talking about USDC and USDT.
see the likes of like um i don't know spark uh usds and crv usd and um and frax and and other
endogenous stable coins and you get billions and billions of those that's a sign of maturation of
the market and that's going to produce some really weird economic distortions across the entire
crypto space i mean cash flow that's just going to be awkward in traditional financial terms, where you could get the 100Xs and the 1,000Xs on large liquidities. So you get multiples
on basis. 20% APR is really like 500% on basis because of the way the numbers crunch.
And by the way, fun fact, they just announced from a base perspective that basically Solana and base is getting a very direct integrated bridge where Solana assets are basically directly going to be depositable on platforms like Aerodrome.
So the potential liquidity flows through Aerodrome are just mind boggling to think about.
And that would mean pump is probably going
to 10 cents man yeah i'm off i'm all for it bro if the if the coinbase cabal wants to buy pump just
how the binance cartel is buying pump by all means but guys thank you thank you thank you all so much
i'm gonna go ahead and wrap up follow everybody up here on the panel we'll be back on wednesday
follow everyone follow because bitcoin account followwin account. Follow Donnie's account.
Follow Captain's account.
Follow my personal account, which is here's co-host, King Wabi.
And follow all the other speakers like Uncle Mike, like Prometheus, like Afro.
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
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