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Market Talk- BTC 58k incoming?! Bear market not over!? Buy the dip?!
Recorded: Feb. 11, 2026 Duration: 3:55:16Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively Market Talk session, host Wabi discusses the recent uptick in stock market activity, particularly in tech stocks like Nvidia and Micron, while expressing concerns over the declining performance of crypto assets like Solana. The conversation highlights emerging trends, potential partnerships, and the need for a fundamental shift in the crypto landscape as the market braces for significant changes.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Oh, yeah. Hey, I'm a tear that sorrow of eternity.
Save the earth and claim perfection.
Save the mouth and claim rejection.
Hold the balls, pain, perception.
Just break your back.
Are you better?
Are you better?
Are you better?
When you're right at all, I don't know. Oh and you you carry on
you I Nice, and close! Whoa! Okay. Thank you. Thank you. The crowd! Beatin' down and throwin' down! Come on with you down!
Overloaded, modest, dumbled
It's been fun and heavy, dumbled
You know, not this, but while you're proud
Are you mad?
Are you mad?
Are you mad?
Are you mad?
Wait till you're right at all But I'm free You Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. music yo what's going on guys small caps what's up matt what's up evan i sent you a speaker invite
brother and um man happy uh wednesday or happy thursday wherever you are and um we're gonna go
ahead and talk markets hope today finds you all well. Welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by BB. I'm your host, Wabi.
And man, these shows lately have been nothing short of incredible.
We've been going, I think, for a minimum of almost three hours per show for most of these sessions.
And I tell you, when these markets actually start getting some juice
as far as volatility the conversations get really lively we tend to have uh some very interesting
moments and um man the stock market sure is uh a beauty i tell you we're seeing uh a nice bounce
in in uh in chips we have nvidia up about 1%. We also have some other names like Micron and also Sandisk having some life injected into them after that gnarly drop that they've had recently.
And I think something that I have to recognize is the strength for some of these boomer stocks.
We have things like Cocaca-cola close
into going to price discovery again we also have home depot that actually looks pretty good i took
a look at that earlier today and uh i just have to recognize some strengths in the in the markets
whenever i do see it but speaking of things um with with strength or lack thereof, the crypto market, almost all the names in the stock market that tend to give some alpha in regards to what crypto is doing, things like MSDR, Coin, Hood, all beaten down today so it's definitely a stock picker's market and um as far as crypto itself
man just just really really weak solana just deflating from its high of 87 bucks
um i think on that show that we did on friday i was discussing that hey i think i'm just gonna
On Friday, I was discussing that, hey, I think I'm just going to let go of this Solana position that I bought at $69.
And despite Bitcoin making range highs at, what was it, $72K over the weekend, Solana couldn't even budge barely above those highs.
And I think that's very telling.
I think that's very telling. I think it's very telling. And what you're seeing in crypto is you really have are these massive squeezes that
I think it's very telling.
happen um all due to perps you have zero volume on perps people come in inflate the price and
they form this nasty burj khalifa type pattern whether it's in the stock market
the truth be told i'm really not someone
that likes to give definitives and what's happening in the stock market sometimes they do sometimes
they do i try not to do that a lot uh because i mainly i mainly dabble in crypto but in stocks
it just seems like people are trying to hide somewhere they tried hiding as metals were uh were topping out as they were
going parabolic they had that gnarly drop where a lot of people honestly got got got shreked
a lot of people got shreked on leverage and now they're trying to hide um in consumer staples
stuff like that um home depot as I mentioned, Coca-Cola is another.
And now you're starting to see what could potentially be a shoulder
on some of these chip names, like a SanDisk or a Micron.
But, I mean, Micron does look like it could actually make a marginal high,
even though it's up like 350 over the last year but uh if you compare that those kind of
gains that the the the chips the in beta right yeah i think i call it nvidia beta you can call
micron and sandisk and video beta um it seems like the place to be as far as size would have been the stock market.
And at some point, crypto will catch up to those gains,
but you usually just need a fundamental shift in regime.
You can't really have CZ be the dominant player.
And obviously, these things take time 10-10 happened last Thursday
happened and usually there's there's either one of two things either one more gnarly drop
that's probably not going to happen a few months down the road or we're going to just be chopping
in a range for for about four months until powell leaves until powell leaves man and
wars comes in and even then i kind of think it's it's like the election and some of these other
events like the etf you usually have a a a dump scare going into and and end the day of the event. And flows do change.
After the ETFs launch, the flows in crypto change as far as altcoins.
You had VC coins like Celestia, Injective, Say,
a few other names as well that I can't really remember
off the top of my head.
But after that gnarly drop and the entire market took a hit, the flows went essentially strictly to meme coins.
It was strictly memes for about seven months after that.
And then it wasn't until that gnarly drop in August.
And then that higher low that we formed in
mid-september where flow started to change again and then you had some of these ai names in crypto
pop off like crazy um and with the exception of like tau and render and q1 most of the things
that ran after the etf launch were were purely memes uh with the exception of things like render tau
fat maybe i'm missing maybe like two other names but typically after these huge drops in crypto
you do tend to see some structural flow changes in the markets um and really what's trended over the last few days on chain
have been these weird names on chain
that are just trying to capture attention
from the clodbot.
I'm going to call it the clodbot narrative.
It's like these AI runs.
They try to mimic what happened in 2024, but the ceilings are just smaller and smaller and smaller and smaller.
And they tend to only run for a couple of days.
And most of the move is done within the first two to three days, and the rest is just trash.
It's pure trash.
So on-chain still hasn't really changed
much at all um maybe we have to see solana trade at like 40 bucks for on chain to actually become
fruitful uh at least to how it was last summer. And there is a saying that crypto people do tend to throw around,
which is skill issue.
And it's not a matter of skill issue. It's just a matter of like,
why would you try to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller?
If you're used to some of these charts having longer life,
buying the dip, and actually having a narrative form instead of everyone trying to extract, why would you try to be glued to your screen to ride waves that cap out at 30 to 40 mil?
bill why would you try to do that you're better off taking a small break and that's something
Why would you try to do that?
that crypto people can't seem to fathom taking a break uh perhaps coming back for the late summer
rally or the early summer rally because there's usually two rallies there's usually one at the uh
at the start of the at the start of the summer, shortly after Memorial Day,
and then typically early July, mid-July, you do tend to have,
people call it VannaCharm, VannaCharm, VannaCharm Flows, whatever it is,
but it's worked over the last 10 years.
There's usually two summer rallies, and then you have the post-Labor Day rally.
So you could just do that if you want to wait for seasonality of sorts.
But I think there's going to be opportunity.
Whatever dip happens after Warsh gets in.
But either way, I'm going to go ahead and stop yapping and giving the intro
because I know I have a habit of doing that.
But I'm going to go ahead and share the spaces link up above on the nest.
And as always, we're going to run a nice show for you guys.
We're going to entertain you all, hopefully spread some alpha.
As I do think there is going to be a um a trending move here very shortly
i really do so you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space as we get started best
way to do that guys is by clicking the spaces tab once you guys do that it's going to be right above
our profile pictures there's going to be a link that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
Hit the like button.
Hit the retweet button.
Gets more people in here.
Brings more brand awareness.
And we're going to go ahead and cook for you guys over the next hour, hour and a half.
Maybe even two to three hours, on uh the number of people that come
on and things to discuss and maybe there's something that i'm not seeing in the market so
if you guys like you guys are more than free to come up and request to speak you can hit that
request button to the bottom left and uh yeah i'm gonna pass it on first over to Evan first.
Evan, what's going on, man?
It seems like maybe 72K is our range high for now.
And now we're going to try and find our range low, which I would say if we start trading below 64 to 64 3 which is our april 2021 high when the coinbase
ipo came in if we have a weekly close below that and i would say that there's there's probably
going to be a another buying opportunity for the market solana showing weakness um you have random dead vc coins having nasty squeezes on perps
specifically on binance and yeah i i think we can start off there man and how are you man thanks for
coming on these shows recently it's been uh it's been awesome yeah man yeah always the pre always
great talking to you man it's hard to believe it's been a few years now.
Time flies.
But, yeah, I mean, to go off of what you were saying, the range low, I think, on my volume profile would be around 66.5.
I got, you know, right here, just below 66.5.
And I think that the top of the range, you know, your point of control is going to be right now at around 70.3.
And then the top of the range would be 71.5.
So I do think you'll stay between this, you know, hopefully, and I think it's likely that you'll stay between 66.5 and 71.5 for probably a week or so.
one, five, four, probably a week or so. And then you got a trend line that goes, you know,
kind of from it's dilly-dallies around like mid 73s into the end of this month. I do think you'll
test that point. Once we get up to that mid 73, I think that could be a fake out and then you
could reject from there and come back down. I do think you'll be within that range that I mentioned
that I first mentioned for like another week, at i would say um into mid-february probably at least until the
chinese new year happens it was a february 17th till the year the fire horse uh starts and then
you may um coincidentally probably then you may um come down a bit more i think after you know you
see the fake out this is speculative obviously but i think after you potentially see a fake out to mid 73s then you may come back down to tests like
let's say 62 or 60k and then maybe sweep the lowest 58k and then you jump up from there so a
lot of choppiness you know after a huge move for you know a month to a month and a half and then as
you get into you know this is now this is a month and a half hours And then as you get into, you know, this is now, this is a month
and a half hours, you get into mid, mid March, that's usually your second kind of tax season
sell-off. And that's where we can talk about, you know, 50 K those areas, but the, on the bright
side, that could be, um, potentially a bottom that could be potentially a bottom. Um, obviously
if you think it's going to be more extended going all the way, you know, later months,
then you could talk about, you know about high 40s and all that.
As of right now, I don't see – I would take a more optimistic route, to be honest.
I mean, I don't see any reason to believe that where you have to lose 48, 50K, that region.
So I do think you will kind of sweep these lows at like 60K in a month or two, especially if the S&P 500 comes down a bit more, which I think
it will. It's funny with the S&P 500, not going to say any names, but some people get really
excited every time it gets close to like a new all-time high, same thing with the NASDAQ,
and then it just keeps rejecting. So I think that's kind of looking how Bitcoin was looked
when it was range bound before we finally broke downwards. So I think that'll, you'll see maybe
a 5% to 10% correction for that within, I don't know, four to six months or something, three to six months.
That would be my view there. You know, I think that, you know, I've talked about it a lot,
you know, on this show, MicroStrategy. The reason I like that, and this is like a really,
the way, what I'm doing, not any type of advice, but I think if you buy MicroStrategy right now,
and it could have bottomed out against Bitcoin, you know, this is if you look at micro strategy versus Bitcoin,
it bottomed out significantly before Bitcoin bottomed out. And this was May of 2022. And
it outperformed it by quite a bit, you know, with some minor corrections since then. Now,
you have that bottom on that chart at 0.0016 if you were to lose that bottom i'd probably convert
my micro strategy back into bitcoin because i'd lose some faith there but i do think it's a good
trade to potentially make not to degenerate and micro strategy looks good against you know your
solanas your xrps really any yeah even against palantir you know really anything right now even
i dare say against one of my most bullish things for the
next four to six months, energy, like XLE, that ETF, even that could have potentially bottomed
out against that. Fun fact, the only thing that microstrategy did not bottom out against in May
of 2022 was XLE. That's the only thing that it made a lower low against later that year.
So that's interesting. If we talk about
Ethereum, I don't think there's too much to talk about. I mean, the micro strategy versus ETH chart,
that looks bullish too. Ethereum itself, I think will follow the same trajectory I mentioned on
Bitcoin. I think you're going to get a jump. I could be wrong, but I think you're going to get
a jump right now or relatively soon on Ethereum, maybe all the way back up to like 2100 or
something and stay in this range for a week, then potentially break down. And there's a lot of support between 1550 to like
1700. And I kind of think that you're going to mess around with those points, you know, over the
over the next few months. That's what I kind of I kind of think that you're going to mess around
those points over the next few months. That could be a bottom.
That April 2025 low could definitely be a bottom on ETH, maybe a higher low there even.
We also got to take a look where we bounced from our two-week 200 SMA on ETH.
But ETH, I just need more time to digest it, or I don't know if that's the best word,
like more time to analyze it, especially on its Bitcoin pair.
I would not be buying ETH over
Bitcoin right now, but that could change, you know, in three, four months. And I think that
likely probably will change once the Fed starts cutting again, which is the earliest that would
probably happen is like June. And I think you would need the S&P 500 to correct more than 10%
to change that with the Fed. The jobs report was pretty good. So there's not really a concern
there. So I think we're just going to see a bit of a bleed for us and B500 and NASDAQ, just your
typical kind of corrections. I think on average, it's once a year, you do see those type of
corrections, not every year, obviously, but I think it will happen this year. And then Bitcoin,
like I mentioned, range bound for another week, probably breaking back down, probably going to be, you know, some more ranges.
And then, you know, a drop to 50K.
But the main thing crypto related I like right now, as I've mentioned, you know, for the past week, probably like micro strategy looks attractive and just, you know, I'm a chart guy.
I'm going to take the trades.
And, you know, if the trade goes the wrong way, I'm going to convert back to back to Bitcoin. You know, everything's planned out. You know, that's the most important thing here. You
know, have a strategy. Last thing I'll say quickly, I got booted from another space for saying that
Bitcoin worst case scenario could work down to the low 40Ks. But I was thinking about that,
like some more, like just I don't want to like I think DCAing Bitcoin is really good right now.
I think like there's a really good shot of at least, know 150k you know at least a higher high of a new
all-time high by the end of this decade so dcaing bitcoin um and the last thing i wanted to mention
too is like to be in the top one percent of all bitcoin holders you need about one bitcoin so
i mean having one bitcoin if you could freaking hold on to it for three years and not have paper
hands like you know you're still in the top 1%.
So long term, you know, you're going to be really good.
So that's that.
I've been wondering, man, like, do you think MSCR is going to outperform BTC during the next run-up?
Or do you think there might be a new BTC proxy?
Maybe something like an IREN.
That's been something that I've been thinking about.
Bitcoin plus AI, I think that's a better narrative than MSTR, but maybe there's something that I'm not looking at. I haven't studied iron enough. I think it's a little bit early to say,
I do think that if you look at like micro strategy versus things like Palantir, it does look really
bullish. You're probably not going to get, I think micro strategy will outperform Bitcoin.
It has to, um, it definitely has to based on leverage. Um, assuming that there's no crazy,
you know, unanticipated things happening,
which I kind of don't think there will be that should outperform Bitcoin.
Now, you brought up a really good point because I think six to, you know, getting into Palantir,
you know, maybe six months, IRON, I'd have to study more, but all these potential AI things,
yeah, they could start to outperform, you know, Bitcoin in the next rally,
the next few years potentially.
So I'm going to be really, really know, Bitcoin in the next rally, the next few years potentially.
So I'm going to be really, really looking at those, especially Palantir.
I think Iran's a little bit early, but I want to, I need to study it more.
I just haven't done my homework on that. So, yeah.
Is Prometheus trying to speak? I, I, I don't hear him if he's speaking.
Did you guys hear him?
Yeah, I'm assuming spaces are glitching.
Matt, what's going on, bro?
Hey, what's going on, guys?
Yeah, not much. I agree.
Thank goodness we got some good news this morning.
February jobs data was way better than expected.
Mic check. Mic check.
Yeah, that's good, man.
Yeah, that's good.
Hey, Prometheus.
My bad. I just wanted to make sure that you you guys could hear yeah yep sounds good um hey did you guys see like these ai agents making money man i don't know if i if that's like
real or not but this clod bot thing um is is insane it's pretty helpful. Yeah. Go ahead, Ryan.
Yeah, and I think that's what's causing all the volatility in the market.
So everyone's trying to figure out.
It's not that like, oh, Claude is going to completely reinvent your Salesforce
or your ServiceNow or your Microsoft Office overnight. But it's further helping the narrative that,
well, maybe my company doesn't need 50 employees.
Maybe we only need 35.
If everyone becomes more efficient,
then maybe we don't have to have such a high headcount.
And eventually, over time, eventually demand will pick up and
you have to hire to meet demand. But all of a sudden, if your computer gets twice as fast,
but all the games and applications that you run are still the same,
and applications that you run are still the same.
There's a catch-up period there.
You're way more efficient.
Your performance is way better than what your needs are.
So yeah, anyway, I still think though,
60K Bitcoin last week, February 9th,
I still think that's the low.
That was the low.
And we talked about
this the other day. If history is any guide, expect three to six months of sideways consolidation.
60K to 75K is a 25% range. That's very normal for Bitcoin to consolidate for several months.
You know, we saw that for most of 2022.
We saw that for most of 2023.
And remember the 200-day-plus consolidation in 2024?
Like, Bitcoin finds these, you know, it always has a capitulation wick first.
But Bitcoin finds these call it 25% to 30% ranges and then just decides to bounce in between it for a quarter or two.
So, yeah.
But in the meantime, macro-wise, things look great.
We don't see employment falling off a cliff.
We don't see inflation spiking higher.
We see big companies spending more money on AI and infrastructure than ever before.
And luckily, they're not like the Mag7.
Luckily, they're not digging deep into debt.
They're still spending cash flow, which is good.
So they're not leveraging themselves to the eyeballs yet.
So I personally like, I've been talking about it.
I'm trying to own it every which way I can.
I personally like a lot of the small and medium cap energy companies,
especially the ones that are catering to AI infrastructure.
You know, if you have, if Google and Oracle and Microsoft and Meta and Tesla are telling you, we're going to spend $150, $180 billion in 2026 for our AI buildout, a lot of that money, yeah, it's going to NVIDIA chips.
But a lot of that money is also going to
energy and data center build out. And that's where these companies come in. They've been sitting at
low valuations for years and years. But then now you see it in their earnings, not just one quarter, but two quarters in a row where they're blasting beats all over
the place with 50% beats, 100% beats, 150% beats based off their historical performance.
Because the biggest companies in the S&P 500 are coming in with bags of cash and being like, hey, I need that turbine tomorrow.
Hey, I need those fuel cells and that energy hookup tomorrow.
And if you can deliver, I've got two or three projects right after it
that I want to talk to you about too.
So last year was absolutely everything AI was up only.
This year, I think anything energy, especially if it's taking checks from those AI companies, is going to continue to be up only.
And we're only in month, we're barely in month two of it, you know.
This is going to play out for a long time.
Remember how many quarters in a row, if we go back to 2022 and
2023, remember when NVIDIA all of a sudden had, wow, a really great quarter earnings. Wow, two
quarters in a row. Wow, three quarters in a row. That was not a fluke. That turned into three plus
years of incredible demand and excellent earnings.
Matt, what companies do you like?
I think the same thing for energy.
I think it's not just like one or two quarters for these energy companies.
I think you're going to talk about, in hindsight, one or two years.
Hey, Matt, what companies do you like?
You know, everyone talks about the safest thing to do is just buy XLE.
Like you're going to get a big chunk of Exxon and Chevron.
And take one look at the XLE ETF, and that's going straight up.
That's going parabolic.
It looks like the early gold chart, if you know what I mean.
But individual companies, I personally really like GE Vernova, GEV as a large cap.
They especially cater to Mag7 and AI company build out for their energy needs.
So I really like GE Vernova.
And then for mid-cap, I like BE Bloom Energy. Same sort of thing. They're out of
California, but they've been expanding all across the West. They're in Texas. They're in the mountain
regions. Same sort of thing. They're catering to energy build out. And then for small cap,
because I like a big, I like a medium, I like a small. For a small cap, I like Solaris Infrastructure Energy, S-E-I.
I think they're barely 5 billion market cap.
They're definitely a small cap.
And again, same sort of thing.
All of these companies, they have their own blend.
GE Vinova, they specialize in the massive natural gas turbines.
And they can, you know, the common thread with all these companies is they don't have to rely on grid hookup.
You're not sitting there waiting your turn in Texas, waiting for some sleepy state agency like ERCOT to return your calls.
No, these companies, they have the expertise, the know-how,
and the materials that they come to you.
And whether it's the futuristic fuel cells that you can stack and stack on site,
they can come to you with your energy needs.
And we've seen everyone from Elon's XAI placing bids and orders to, you know,
Placing bids and orders to, you know, IREN and Cipher and some of the smaller AI BTC miners are more and more tapping these options.
So, yeah, if everyone's right that, oh, the next bottleneck is energy and chips are catching up, well, then you want to be in the energy names.
and chips are catching up, well, then you want to be in the energy names.
And again, I don't think it's just two quarters like, oh, they had one quarter.
That was nice.
Oh, two quarters in a row.
That's really great for you.
I think this is like NVIDIA where one and two quarters turns into one and two years plus
of just trying to meet demand and then getting hit with 10 orders right after the fact.
Yeah, I mean, to your point on that, sorry, I got a mouthful of ground beef and rice right now.
Just finished up the gym. I mean, to your point with like natural gas and energy demands is
these AI build outs, these data centers, they need energy
and they need energy now. Right. And nuclear is fine and dandy, but it's not like it's not
proven yet. Right. The small purple nuclear reactors, they they're not proven out yet. And
nuclear will absolutely have its place in, you know, in the sun in the future.
But as of right now, for the, you know, exponential growth we're seeing in energy demand, natural gas best meets that demand as of right now.
And a company I really like that kind of fits in there and you know, you don't have to worry about, um, you know, it's a company that fits really well into kind of like the whole natural gas, uh, ecosystem you call it or industry
is AROC, right? They specialize in natural gas compression. So it's essentially, you know,
natural gas transportation. Um, and they dominate down, down there in Texas.
And as we know, that's kind of the hot spot, the hotbed right now, especially for the AI buildouts, the data center buildouts. But even where I'm at, like in the middle of the Midwest, we're getting four massive new data centers getting planted in very, very, very soon.
So it's going to be crazy. I just,
I think O'Hare and Cantor were talking about it yesterday on yesterday's space,
but they were talking kind of about the, oh my gosh, I just lost my train of thought.
They were, oh God, what the fuck was I going to say? I could literally completely lost my train of thought they were god what what the fuck was i gonna say i could literally completely lost my train of thought anyways um that's kind of was my input for the natural gastric
when do they report um i i know solaris is coming up quick arch rock are they about to report to
earnings pretty quick right oh okay i'm looking at this uh super soon it's on like in march i'm pretty sure or end
of feb end of feb so like february 20th yeah so like less than less than two weeks february 25th
yeah super super soon um and i mean the chart's bullish too like for me it's really important
the fundamentals and the ta lineup together i i like to trade off of both of them, like within Confluence. And if I
just get TA, I'll trade off of it. But if I'm just getting the fundamental,
I don't really trade off of just pure fundamentals without TA. Like if TA looks trash and it might
have like a good fundamental case, like sure. But you know, if the fundamentals really are
driving a company or a name super hard, eventually it'll make the technicals look good enough to where, you know, then looks attractive for me.
But I don't like to buy super distressed charts or assets.
I'm going to dig in. Thank you for calling them out.
I'm going to look them up.
So Arch Rock, I found them.
A-R-O-C, Arch Rock in Texas.
Yeah, they cross, man.
They do really, really well.
Smallcaps, how are you doing, man?
I'm doing good, man.
You guys are talking right up my wheelhouse right now.
There were a couple of things that you said as far as these AI data center companies possibly having a tie to bitcoin right um you know moving forward for the next whenever the next bull run is
and then just just sticking on the topic of energy you know i think that there's i think all these
names are poised to to do very well and i mean they have like taking a look at GEV or BE, Bloom Energy, NVTS, like a lot of the supplemental energy companies to like support grids and energy storage.
They've all done really well. Something that I've kind of been focusing on just a little bit when it comes to names like, you know, Vernova and not so much Bloom, but just in general,
just the energy side of these data centers is, uh, is grid arbitrage. So, and I don't think it's
too much of a, like a really bearish thing for them, but I think that there's definitely some
evolution that's going to have to happen as we continue to progress with these massive data center buildouts and just extremely high demand for energy for computing.
And then obviously, as Bitcoin starts to trend higher, you'll start seeing that demand for mining as well increase.
But if you just picture the electricity grid, it's a giant marketplace that never sleeps.
Prices for power, they change every few minutes.
Sometimes they're dirt cheap.
Sometimes they're really expensive.
And when the sun's blazing, solar panels are pumping out electricity,
nobody pumping out electricity that we don't need just now.
Or same thing with like talking renewable
right when the wind is howling at 3 a.m um sometimes they'll pay you to take the power
and then as soon as you know everyone's running their air conditioners and needs the energy again
uh the price skyrockets so now entering grid arbitrage it's pretty simple it's just
you know you buy the super cheap electricity when prices are rock bottom and
you shove it into giant batteries the size of like small houses or shipping containers,
like the size of like a, you get the point.
I'm trying to create another analogy about how big it is.
And then they sell it back to the grid a few hours later when everyone's desperate and willing to pay 10 times more so we've seen a lot of that like in texas and
pennsylvania and it's really spreading across the entire country um and the and you know batteries
just do this faster and like more automated and faster than humans can react and they're making serious money doing it so
you know ge so for nova they build the machine that used to own that high price moment which
is like they called it the peaker plants but the batteries are doing the same job you know in
california texas parts of australia batteries are like already the default choice for handling the price spikes.
And, you know, EOSC is a solid name for that.
And I think that, you know, in some regions, there's a couple of studies that I read that are showing that literally like individual peaker plants could disappear or just be replaced by one storage.
by one storage. So, you know, don't get me wrong. I don't think that any of these like companies
like GE or, you know, Vinova, they're going to vanish tomorrow or anytime soon. They're not,
they're riding this massive wave because these AI data centers, they need insane amounts
of renewable, not renewable, reliable power. And batteries alone just can't deliver that at, you know, for days at a time.
So, um, you know, they're big, heavy duty gas turbines.
They're, they're still the backbone for all that load.
And they're selling hybrids where batteries and turbines work together.
Long story short, the story's real and it's keeping the stock flying, but grid, grid
arbitrage is eating away at like the crown jewel business of a lot of those companies,
like the peaker market and the quick response.
So I think that that's a risk that no one really talks about.
And it's not because these companies are doomed.
They're adapting.
But battery arbitrage machine is so efficient, fast, and it's just like perfectly suited to take the job that used to
belong almost exclusively to Vinova. So it's something to think about. I don't think it's
loud or dramatic. It's just, you know, it's slowly something to think about. And now,
Wabi, you brought up like the Bitcoin mining, you know, the Bitcoin mining companies,
could they possibly be you know
really tied to bitcoin for the next bull run um i mean we're seeing that they're tied right now
right like a lot of these one of these guys like the irons of the world cyphers um i mean the whole
sector gets hit as soon as bitcoin you know is down five six seven% in a couple of days. So they're definitely tied to Bitcoin as of today.
But I think that like the shift away from Bitcoin mining to the HPC,
to the AI infrastructure is a clear structural trend for all of the companies in the sector.
I think, you know, the transition is driven by just massive differences,
like fundamental differences in revenue, stability, and just like efficiency between the two business models.
So the Bitcoin mining profitability, it's really exposed to the price volatility.
as we've seen it and as we are seeing right now we've seen in the past it can fluctuate
20 to 50 percent um within quarters sometimes even more which which really impacts um the hash price
and operating margins for these miners uh and then you can talk about like post having dynamics and
network difficulty increases energy costs it all compresses returns, especially as Bitcoin starts dumping the same
company that was mining Bitcoin and making $65,000 to $70,000 per coin that they mined.
They're now, that's cut in half.
Like Ivan, their CEO, Dan Roberts, he was talking about how Bitcoin mining is a great
part of the business.
It bootstraps the business.
It's been a cash engine.
We mine it for $35,000 a coin, $30,000 to for 35,000 a coin, 30 to 35,000 a coin,
sell it for a hundred. So you make a really good, it's a good business to bootstrap AI.
But I think moving forward, we're going to start seeing a lot of these companies completely cut
ties from Bitcoin. You know, public miners, they're already bringing in tens of billions of dollars in AI and compute
deals since last year. And it just is reflecting like a very rational relocation of the capital.
And it makes sense. It's also the infrastructure part of it, right? Like Bitcoin mining infrastructure,
the power, the cooling systems, the facilities, substations, all of it
is just very highly transferable to AI. And it's just allowing these operators to capture
the very explosive demand for computing without building from scratch. I mean, a company whose
name has Bitcoin in it, literally Bitforms. I'm not too big. I'm not too high on Bitforms,
but nonetheless, they just completely parted ways with Bitcoin.
What about HUD-8, man?
Small caps, how do you think that that affects valuations, that transition? Have you thought about that?
like yeah on a speculative like industry to more of an energy focused one and so do valuations
then compress and normalize and become more stable you know it's it's interesting i actually
think that valuations become wait were you saying that they like they would become more stable
they become less speculative in nature because of the transition
from a you know crypto derivatives to more so like energy focused right yeah totally i mean because
at the end of the day you know bitcoin mining can only be profitable and makes sense with the
energy costs with the um just the cost of the all the capital that you need to have your mining
racks and your energy.
There's a lot that goes into it.
It's not just like the cost of energy, right?
And when you pair that CapEx with the price of Bitcoin, it only makes sense if Bitcoin
is at a specific price.
So, and it's never guaranteed.
So it's extremely volatile and not, I wouldn't say that it's, it's speculative,
right? Because the price of Bitcoin is always changing. Not speculative as, as in Bitcoin,
not being like a real stable asset. But as soon as, yeah, I think it makes valuations actually
higher and you take it, you take away a lot of the risk of it, of, of that price fluctuation.
And we saw it last week with BitFarms.
They announced that they were literally parting ways with their Bitcoin mining. They're completely
focusing all of their, whether it's grid secured power that they have or the power capacity in
their pipeline, they're now focusing at 100% on HPC and AI. And I think the stock jumped like 20%.
They've been really beat up over the last few months. So take it with a grain of
salt. But yeah, I definitely think that it takes away the day-to-day frustration of maybe more so
like the investor day-to-day frustration. Because at the end of the day, nothing has really changed
with the core thesis when it comes to AI. And like you see companies come out with,
you know, really solid earnings, projections and, you know, securing more power, purchasing more
land and just increasing their grid secured pipeline. And then their earnings come out
and their earnings, you know, they miss by 20 or 30% solely because they're still tied to Bitcoin,
solely because they're still tied to Bitcoin, right? They're still tied to
Bitcoin mining and that's still a way that they generate revenue. So I think Iron was a pretty
good example of that. And I think that a lot of just the companies in general, they're going to
start slowly transitioning away. Now, what's interesting is, all right, well, what happens?
And I asked Mike Alford this maybe a month or two ago, like on a space, I said, well, what happens if slash when, you know, Bitcoin gets back up to
125K and then starts pushing higher into the, you know, 200, 250, 300, like,
then does it make sense to mine for 40,000 a coin? And, you know, you're increasing your,
and before I say 40,000 a coin, I know that energy prices,
everything, the grid, everything's going to change. So pricing, the cost might be different,
but if you're mining Bitcoin and able to sell it for $300,000 a coin, I think that then you have
a case to maybe keep some of your racks open with your Bitcoin mining infrastructure. So
that's definitely something to think of.
But at the end of the day, I think that just as you were saying, Parenthes,
it's definitely like a safer business model.
And when you're starting to have companies like the hyperscalers,
like Microsoft and AWS, Google, and those guys depending on you every year,
spending, you know, tens of billions of dollars to use your facilities and depending on you to provide computing power for them, I think it just makes you want to minimize the risk even more when it comes to Bitcoin mining and the volatility of price.
You can go ahead, Matt. What are your thoughts on hud 8 by the way man yeah that thing uh went on an absolute tear today i haven't looked at in a while but i'm looking at it now because
we're talking about minors and stuff and uh yeah it's what what a runner dude what a runner, dude. What a runner.
Well, see, Hut 8 is what I was kind of always hoping for.
I really don't care if these companies actually mine Bitcoin or not.
My hope was that they'd keep Bitcoin on the balance sheet and make as much money however they find to do so.
And so, okay, if it's literally mining Bitcoin in the previous cycle, great.
If they're starting to get really lucrative contracts to lease out their data centers and their access to power for AI, great. But the benefit that I
thought would be really clear is if you're holding on to the Bitcoin or putting some of that cash
flow into Bitcoin, the value of your company and the value of that HODl is going to go up cycle after cycle. So yeah, I agree that these companies,
they're all getting re-rated.
They're all figuring out that like,
all right, well, if Bitcoin's in a bear market
and then meanwhile you've got Google and Amazon and Meta
willing to sign you a five-year, a 10-year, a 15-year contract.
Who says no?
That just makes so much sense.
They're paying more money per floor space and kilowatt I have access to.
But over time, I think where companies like HUD-8 are going to absolutely shine
is when Bitcoin gets back on its bull market,
the value of that huddle that they've kept, that they refuse to sell,
that is just going to start increasing so fast all over again.
And away we go.
So, yeah, it's exciting.
It's exciting. There's so many different ways to play it.
There's so many different ways to play it.
And I just remember way back in 2020 and 2021 and 2022,
all I really wanted was just give me the AutoZone
and the Home Depot of Bitcoin
where they're a sleepy company that just makes cash flow,
that just makes increasing flow, that is just, you know, makes increasing revenue year after year
and puts some allocation of that into Bitcoin
and holds it and never touches it.
And because you just know that's going to work.
If you're willing to wait it out,
you know that's a winning strategy.
So yeah, I hope HUD8 stays.
Even if they've completely pivoted to
AI data centers, I hope they keep their huddle. I hope they don't confuse their original thesis
there. We'll see what these other companies do. And then last but not least, that's why I really
like energy in 2026, because we just named, there's all of these
different companies.
They're all trying to fight over their slice of AI, but these energy players, they don't
care.
Like they're going to, they will meet your demand for energy, whether you're a big company
or you're small, whether you're Amazon or Iron Energy. They just want to sell you the energy solution,
and they are making so much money.
We've seen it not one but two quarters in a row.
I swear it's going to turn into not one but two plus years in a row.
And think of it like NVIDIA.
NVIDIA doesn't care who they sell their chips to.
They want to sell it to anyone
who's got the cash to buy. And that's exactly how I'm thinking of these energy companies. They don't
care who's got the winning data center and who's in the best state or in the best region or in the
best, you know, this is turning into a multi-country race, but they just want to sell. And that's music to my ears.
Yeah, Matt, I think that just in theory, thinking about the possibility of selling or mining a
Bitcoin for $30,000 or even $35,000, $40,000, or you can even take it up to $50,000 or $60,000 or you can even take it up to 50 or 60,000 mining for a minor to mine Bitcoin for 50 to $60,000.
Eventually, when the cycle continues and years down the line, keeping it on the balance sheet
when Bitcoin is worth anywhere from 250 to 300, that's an insanely high upside treasury asset and appreciating over time,
great natural hedge to inflation, I think,
and just aligning directly with kind of what you were saying about,
about HUD aid. I think that, you know,
I think in theory it sounds amazing and I I'd honestly love to see some of the
companies keep it on the balance sheet as well. But from what I'm reading, I'm seeing that even if Bitcoin were still at $126,000 today and your companies are profiting $90,000 a coin, that $90,000 that you're profiting is not comparable to what that same, and obviously 90,000 is a very small
number. These companies are mining a few hundred coin every month, sometimes even more than that.
So when you multiply it by that, that amount of money, staying on the balance sheet and
appreciating with whatever CAGR we think Bitcoin is going to appreciate over three, five, 10 years versus using that capital
and using that capital towards the AI build out. It's not really comparable. The return from
what we're seeing each megawatt being monetized is at this particular point in time, it's just so much larger for AI than keeping it on the balance
sheet. Most of these companies, their main risk, most of them, and when I say most of them, I mean,
I'm talking about the really good ones like the Iron, the Hud8, Cypher, TerraWolf, their largest risk is in execution. It's just the financing
risk. So when you're in a brutally intensive sector, I think the math flips and the financial
risk is just that overwhelming priority. So both parts of the business, whether it's Bitcoin mining
or AI, they demand massive amounts of upfront spending. But specifically, you're seeing that with AI, right? You got to retrofit the
data centers. You have to buy the GPUs, sometimes millions of them, which is what it's looking like
moving forward. Right now, it's hundreds of thousands, securing the power, scaling fleets
fast enough to win these deals with the hyperscalers
so like the margins they're as of today and even just in comparison to ai it's like the margins and pure mining are pretty thin and sometimes negative during downturns and i think that just
like management in the time of like really needing to get take you to take advantage of the deals while they're there,
contract all the power. They got to use every single dollar amount that they can
to fund the business without diluting shareholders and putting the burden on the shareholders.
So whether it's debt, equity, JV, every single dollar amount really counts.
And I was kind of saying like a couple of months ago, I was saying, because I'm invested in a few of the companies and I was saying to myself, I don't think that they really go away from Bitcoin mining just yet.
I think that it's a really good way to provide some sort of a cash engine to keep funding the build out of AI and all the GPUs and data center, everything that you need
to do. But as Bitcoin starts to trend lower and no one really knows how long we could be here,
2022, what was it? It was like a year or maybe not a year, but there was quite a while that we
were in that range of like 15 to 30K. And if that happens down here, it really would hurt some
of these companies. And it's going to hurt a lot of these companies. I think that's why we're seeing
a lot of the, like the Neo cloud and the mining space take a little bit of a hit. And I mean,
we saw it last week with iron, they missed on revenues like 20, 20, I think it was 19%, 19 to
20%. And a lot of that just had to do with the falling
price of Bitcoin because they are still mining. I don't know. I think it's going to be interesting
to see. I just, in short, I think that holding Bitcoin sounds really good on paper for that
scenario of the next bull run, but just in like the high stakes, that really high CapEx,
bull run, but just in like the high stakes, that really high capex, like the capex heavy pivot
and monetizing it to fuel growth and prop up the balance sheet is a little bit of a smarter
and lower risk path for them. But I could definitely see them going back to Bitcoin
mining and utilizing some power at least for it. So I always want to talk about the bear side
and where I could be wrong
and what people should watch out for.
So the real risk of these Bitcoin AI miners,
these small guys,
the real risk is Tesla, Amazon, Meta, Google, you name it. The big boys decide
are building our own infrastructure is both more efficient, cheaper, easier for us to manage,
and we'd rather own our own infrastructure rather than renting it out anyway.
That's the real risk because, come on,
Iron doesn't own Google Gemini
and BitFarms didn't create the next version of Claude.
They're always fighting for their next AI deal
and I think the future is bright for them. I'm not
trying to FUD them. I think all these companies are going to do well.
But at the end of the day,
I want to be in NVIDIA that is
selling the chips. I want to be in the energy companies that sell the energy.
I want to be, you know, in the past, I wanted to be in the energy companies that sell the energy. I want to be, you know, in the past, I wanted to be in the Bitcoin miners that are at least,
they're not looking for their next contract.
They are producing something every single day of every single week of every single year
and are selling it.
And they don't have to wait for, you know,
if we build it, they will come. So like, there's going to be some of these that are left out in
the cold. That's just the cold hard truth of it. I think that the safest ones, Iron and Cipher
and et cetera, and obviously HUD-8's killing it and TerraW. But eventually, supply is going to catch up with demand. And what I worry is
the big boys, again, Meta, Google, Amazon, Tesla, et cetera, they all have their own incredibly
valuable use case for AI within their companies.
And if they start to see, okay, we're catching up with our own demand,
they might stop signing that next contract. And the last person that's going to know will be retail.
Like the last person, like we will not know that, uh-oh,
that last lucrative contract, I don't want to name any specific company, but XYZ dataoh, that last lucrative contract, I don't want to name any specific company,
but XYZ Data Center, that last lucrative contract
that blew out the earnings that last quarter,
that was their last big one.
We'll be the last to find out.
So anyway, long story short,
and also having 13,000 Bitcoin on their balance sheet,
that hasn't hurt HUD-8 stock one bit.
HUD-8 is one of the top 10 Bitcoin holders.
I know it's a long way off from MicroStrategy,
but they're way up there.
They hold over 13,000, something like 1.5-whatever billion in Bitcoin.
But that hasn't slowed down their AI growth.
That hasn't slowed down their CapEx spend.
That hasn't slowed down signing their next contract
with MetaFacebook.
And on the plus side,
what if they do see,
okay, the demand for AI build-out is starting to slacken?
At least they have a massive hodl
that they can use to fund the next area of growth. So, I mean, there's just so many different ways.
There's just so many different ways to slice it. I don't think anyone's flat out wrong anymore. I
think everyone's come to religion that it's all about just making money however effectively you see fit.
I was going to jump in if that's all right with you guys. Matt, just to address some of the points
you and Small Cap made. I primarily own Iron and Cipher, so I have it from an understanding from
this vantage point at best, but I still recognize companies like Apply Digital, TerraWolf, and HUD-8 that have had success in the space. HUD-8 specifically,
for you guys that were asking earlier, I find their opportunity, given that they're Canadian-based,
there's an element of what's called sovereign AI, where they may partner with the Canadian
government down the road. And I find that a unique opportunity for them because they're Canadian-based.
Iron also has Canadian operations and has quite a bit of pipeline that hasn't been approved because of the regulatory red tape.
And there's hope that the new partnership with Microsoft and Microsoft's influence with Prime Minister Carney can unlock
some of that access. As far as Bitcoin, it's in my name. It's what made my primary wealth that
I drove into AI. But I still believe in the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin on your
balance sheet. Because Matt, you were saying you believe that
the supply of the grid connections will, and compute, poses a risk to Cypher, TerraWolf,
and Iron. But there's states coming out with grid restrictions that, six of them,
I don't know them off the top of my head, but that will further delay grid connection approvals.
And then you were speaking to behind the meter solutions, which I agree will become more
prominent.
And there's companies like New AI that feature gas turbines.
And I recognize that.
But even so, none of those companies have started building yet.
So realistically, if they could build a data center in 12 months and they haven't started and dug into the ground yet, I still think there's an opportunity for a lot of these companies in 2026 and 2027. of a co-location provider like TerraWolf and Cypher, where those are viewed in the market
as less risky right now because there's less CapEx up front.
But the opportunity is companies like Palantir or Anthropic, instead of splitting their margins
with hyperscalers, Iron has an opportunity to undercut them by just putting in what's called bare metal operations where they're just providing base level software called Kubernetes that those companies can layer on top of it, while the hyperscal So that's a long way of me saying I'm still bullish on my holdings right now.
And I would rather instead of focusing on Bitcoin, like Iron specifically was mining 500 Bitcoin per month.
If the cash cost for them is 40,000 and we're down to even if it was 70,000 right now, we were making $30,000 of Bitcoin at $500 a month.
That's $15 million by 12.
That's $180 million run rate EBITDA that, quite frankly, if they said that they were exiting the mining business tomorrow,
you would see more shareholder appreciation.
And there's evidence of that just by Bitfarms changing their name to Keeling.
So I see the value of Bitcoin long term as being a load balancer, meaning if Iron is running a
data center or Cypher or TerraWolf, they may have their legacy ASICs on site where they plug in
during non-peak hours. SmallCap was speaking to arbitraging the power where whether they were storing it in
batteries or if you're mining Bitcoin, it's the same concept. If there's low cost power during
the middle of the night when no one's using it, then there's an opportunity to use it at that
time at a cheaper price. And whether you store it and sell it back to the grid, there's a decay
factor with that with the storage of batteries. But whereas with Bitcoin, if you mine it right away, you can
sell it right back into the marketplace. So those are just a few of my thoughts. And I'm happy if
anyone had any questions on what I said. Yeah, I mean, I think we're all talking about the same thing and just quibbling about the details.
I absolutely agree that like, yeah, all these companies, they're in transition.
They used to be 100% Bitcoin mining.
Now they're, you could call them hybrids, but they're, you know, quickly trying to sign the best AI HPC deals they possibly can.
And it's all well and good that BitFarms is a good example,
whatever they renamed themselves, Keel or Keeling or I don't know.
It's rather odd, But they renamed themselves. That's fine. But the
vast majority of their revenue still comes from selling Bitcoin every day.
I'm happy
that they're reimagining their company and
new name and new logo for their bright new future. But today
the vast majority of the revenue
still comes from selling Bitcoin every day of every week,
of every month, of every year.
And I'm just saying that there's going to be the winners
and we've named out quite a few of them.
And the risk is that the weaker, the ones sitting on less lucrative sites,
or maybe they just don't have the expertise to build out quite as fast,
or like you said, maybe they run into governmental red tape,
or they're in a state that all of a sudden they didn't like Bitcoin mining,
and now they don't like AI data centers either.
But there's going to be some losers too.
And this isn't a done deal. All of these companies, all of them are in heavy transition. And they're just starting to get those checks from the Mag7 and Oracle and the big AI HPC users.
But as we said, even today, and I really love Iron,
but 90% of their total revenue still comes from selling Bitcoin every day.
So we're in an early transition period, early stages of a transition period.
And all I just want to talk about is keep in mind the risks involved too.
I think there's going to be a lot of winning and it's early, but not everyone will win.
I want to jump in.
I want to share my thoughts on actually IRON and the world market.
Go on, man. You're good.
Thanks, Wavi. Sure. So what I'm saying, like, for example, like Meta, if you take a look at Meta, no, Meta is like around 20% below all time highs.
Like Microsoft had a double top the last couple of months
and it's actually retesting a gap fail.
So I'm seeing a lot of weakness on the big caps.
If you guys take a look at the VXN divided by the VAX,
we recently had a golden cross.
So that will signal more volatility on the tech sector.
And in terms of price on IRON,
I mean, IRON had almost a 13X from its low,
from April low.
So I'm seeing potentially we're creating like lower highs
from a price perspective.
And if you guys take a look also,
there's little volume below.
If you guys see a volume gap profile
and we're retesting we we retested the volume no we retested the bull market support band like
around december we bounced from it but now we're we're down below again so we're retesting that
again and i expect like high probability of more downside like i believe
in iran long term but from a positioning standpoint uh i wouldn't touch it right now personally
i see i see more risk
yeah for iran i think they're like i was looking at that like wabi mentioned iron
iron against micro strategy and vice versa um it seems like it's kind of maybe topping out
um against that and i do think that could show weakness i'm not an expert on like the fundamentals
on it so i mean some of you guys may know who are bullish on it. You may know more than I do about it. But in terms of a technical perspective, like, I would say the order, like, that looks the most bullish would be number one, MicroStrategy, number two, Bitcoin.
And then after that, like, I think it could bleed against, you know, Bitcoin as well.
It could follow more of the AI stuff, which I think is going to, you know, that bubble is going to pop more, especially stuff on Palantir. Like, I think it may, could be wrong. I haven't, you know, take this for a
grand salt. I haven't studied it that much, but I think it'll more follow like the AI narrative,
the AI market, which I think, you know, six to eight more, you know, generally not too good
months and then a really good buying opportunity.
So that's what I'm looking at.
I think for AI, though, like, I mean, I feel like Palantir is the best bet if you can get in on that, like at a good price in six to eight months.
But yeah, I mean, just an investment strategy right now.
I think I think it's not enough of us like talk about enough, even on the more like conservative buy and die spaces spaces.
I mean, people don't even, I mean,
I would just say like DCA Bitcoin for like the next four to six,
but like until October, you know, that's probably like,
it was a six months now, you know,
and that's kind of the big place.
And you'll probably at least get a three X overall into the end of the decade.
And I mean, I know three X is notX is not much for a lot of people.
Bear with me.
If you need a 10X, there's your micro.
Your safest bet for a 3X, I think, is Bitcoin.
Your safest bet for a 10X, I think, is micro strategy.
Now, we can talk about altcoins, but none of those look attractive at the moment. Those aren't the good risk-reward ratio for any amount, whatever the hell they can give. They're just not there yet. They may be there in June once the Fed starts to cut. Again, then we can reevaluate that. But until then, that's a concern. I think any altcoin, though, that could outperform Bitcoin and MicroStrategy 2, let's say, for the next four to six months, that's probably going to be a keeper.
Now, we can talk about all coins, but none of those look attractive at the moment.
And I don't think there's many. I don't think there's many that are going to be able to outperform both of those.
So that's kind of the main thing there.
I mean, in terms of what I mentioned, our window, you know, this is getting the more the riskier stuff.
You got to be more sophisticated. This is trader stuff, you know, but it's a scalpers market, I think, you know, this is getting into more of the riskier stuff. You got to be more sophisticated.
This is trader stuff, you know, but it's a scalpers market.
I think, you know, scalping the low, like what I'm doing right now with good risk
management makes sense.
You know, the things of that nature, that's, that's different though.
You got to know what that does much more.
You got to know what the hell you're doing.
Now find your advice.
You got to be careful, you know, unless you're a professional, unless you really
want to have a passion for that and really want to spend a lot of time to learn that you know that's not
going to be the right thing for you but sometimes in these environments you got to know your
environment too and i think you know obviously from a trainer perspective and i'm not trying to
my own horn but you know i did pretty well shorting you know bitcoin and ethereum down
now i'm trying to do a scalp long and that's kind of the environment from a swing
short environment. Now you're getting to more of a scalp long, scalp long environment, scalp
environment in general, likely for probably a lot of the month of February. After that, what does
the environment come? I mean, it's probably going to be, you could, when you get relief rallies and
stuff, I mean, I'm not going to, tough to predict, but the environment changes generally.
The environment changes after big breakouts.
Go ahead, Matt.
That's a good point.
And I think there's a good reason for why Iron, you know,
had some decent drawdowns pulled back here.
And meanwhile, other names like Wolf or Hud8,
it was a lot more muted. And they're way closer to their all-time highs, what I'm trying to say.
And here's an easy trick. And you can use your favorite. You can use Google Gemini or
ChatGBT or Claude or whichever your favorite AI app is, but take all of those
Bitcoin AI hybrid companies that we've been talking about, everything from Iron to Cypher
to CleanSpark to TerraWolf to Huday to et cetera, take all those tickers and ask Google
Gemini or ChatGPT to rank them total revenue percent that comes from Bitcoin mining and just rank
them in a list.
And I'm telling you, the ones with a higher percentage of revenue coming from Bitcoin
miner, they had the bigger fall.
And it's literally just that simple.
It's literally just that simple.
So that cuts through all the noise because you're right, literally just that simple. So, you know, that cuts through
all the noise because you're right here on X or spaces, you'll have people, you know,
telling you all about how they've, you know, they've got this lease of land and they just
broke ground on that. And there's this greenfield site and whatever, but you know what, like in
earning season and in short term,
the market cares about money, money. And if you're saying, wait, so 90% or 95% or 99% of your revenue that you make every day still comes from Bitcoin mining and Bitcoin is trying to bottom
out. It's clearly, I mean, we're still in a bear market, let's just be honest, but it's still trying to bottom out, that stock's going to suffer. And maybe the story,
you know, maybe you know that like, well, their AI deal that's going to dwarf their Bitcoin mining
that's coming in July or is coming later in 2026. And okay, great. You've got some alpha that the
market doesn't appreciate yet. But that literally explains a lot of what you're seeing out there in the space.
Those that have the higher percentage, total percentage revenue coming from Bitcoin mining, they fell the farthest.
Hey, Wavi, may I post something so I can explain?
I've been talking about variousness on Google and as of why.
Yeah, so I was posting, like, going back to the potential weakness, like weakness on the
tech on the Mac 7. Like if you guys take a look at Google's chart, we had three consecutive
back to back descending channel breakouts, right, on the Google price. And if you guys take a look
at the pair, Google divide by NDX, it was showing like, and I was describing like potential exhaustion
on price versus NDX, because you can see like,
it was like a triple topping, like trying to triple top.
Then we had a deviation on the pair,
and now we're pulling back as I explained,
we're gonna have that likelihood of downward pressure
on Google, and I expect even lower moving forward on Google.
And if you guys also take a look at the Apple chart,
back in December, back in November, we made a high,
and then we created a lower high.
So I'm watching out really closely how Apple performs
moving forward, because if it creates another lower high,
I mean, I a way more downside
than the on the qqqs so not to add that
hey what's going on gary how How are you, man? It's been a minute.
Hey, guys. Yeah, I'm good. I didn't want to break in on the flow where y'all were talking about.
Hey, if I could go back to what Jason was talking about, about making the money on whatever the X thing is,
is I personally wouldn't look at it as a monetary return. I mean, the capital, you know, there's a
I personally wouldn't look at it as a monetary return.
lot of different ways to get a return. And the power of this app, and I'm not promoting Elon
at all. I, you know, I think all of these guys ought to just come out and decide, you know,
who the good guys are and the bad guys. But nonetheless, the ability to get on a platform and be able to connect with really smart people, even if it's like only, you know, a fraction of what these spaces offer, I think it's a phenomenal value, man.
or whatever it costs to at least be able to get on a stage like this
and introduce yourself and hang out, meet with, listen to,
communicate with other smart people.
And, yes, there are going to be a lot of dumbos and grifters
and short-term players.
People trying to make $50 on their $50 investment,
I think they are the grifters.
Instead of looking at this as a, wow, I can
actually build a reputation here. I can build a reputation, go out to a few trade shows a year,
and then get on Spaces and build a reputation with other people. I have to remember when I
do business, I actually have to have customers. I have to have people that like me, like my product, know me. So to me, this is, I don't
know where you could get better value, man. I mean, you could go get a headhunter and they'll
charge you 15% and do absolutely nothing for you. I mean, I think you could literally pick any topic today.
And if you start, open your camera up or open the space up.
I mean, you guys, there are spaces you guys do not go to.
And they have 800 people in them.
You hate those rooms, but there's 800 people that are going to those rooms for something else. So I really think it's about whoever has the most conviction and consistency
in their messaging. Oh, by the way, I think massive reputations are going to be destroyed here
because of the behavior. And the long game is going to be consistency, responsible,
no grifting, really mature stuff. You're not shilling your bags. There's so much fucking shilling of bags going on here.
It's ridiculous.
It's really disgusting, actually.
And it's coming from various areas.
Most of it very early Bitcoiners, I must say, which is quite interesting.
So anyway, I just think it's a really, it's, you know, been awesome for me, man.
I've met a lot of really cool people and I've met some real dickheads.
One thing I would encourage everybody to do is really figure out how to read people.
You know, when you're, when you're on these, because I think you have to have better observation skills when you're on these platforms, because there's a lot of noise.
uh, when you're on these platforms, cause there's a lot of noise. Uh,
and some of them are, I mean, it's easy for me. It's so obvious for me, but I listen a lot. Right.
And I, and I'm, uh, I try to figure like Matt, I haven't always agreed with Matt, but Matt's
very consistent. See, that is more valuable to me than him being right.
He also doesn't seem to, you know, I don't hear pump from him.
And I don't hear much hopium.
Like, I don't care if you have 10,000 Bitcoin.
That's cool.
I want to know that. I want to know what your price is.
And I think everybody should tell people what their position is because it most certainly biases my view of the world.
Like I'm super long right now, but I'm very rational.
This fucking thing's going down.
Okay, there are no buyers.
And there's no news.
And until all this shit in America gets started out, no one's going to trust shit.
And that's not an investment environment and the fucking clarity
bill is not getting approved so i think you know we're going into a hunker down
fucking protect your shit because i i don't matt i i just don't know how we get that i don't know
how we get past 88 or 90 here uh like i think we have so much fucking wood to chop that we're in this for months now.
Oh, I agree with you there.
I agree with you there.
I think we're in this for months.
We were talking earlier about, I think, Bitcoin ping pongs between 60 and 75K
for anywhere from three to six months.
anywhere from three to six months. Absolutely. I agree with you, Gary. But then on the other hand,
Absolutely.
I agree with you, Gary.
I can't help but recognize the signs of capitulation here. The news cannot be worse.
The sentiment cannot be worse. There's nothing exciting to hang your hat on coming out of
Congress or the executive branch.
It doesn't look like any favorable bill will get passed.
Barring a black swan, knock on wood, it literally can't get worse.
So that's why I'm buying.
That's why I'm bullish.
Come on.
It's de-risked.
All the hot money's gone.
All the nonbelievers left it's only the look who's left it's only the people who have been here for cycle after cycle
i don't see any new faces it's the people who have been here for a long time right
there's no new money or what i call the old money coming into the new system
but that makes me but that but that tells me the bottom's probably protected you know unless we truly have some sort of black swan and it could be a big black swan
something in 2020 or it could be a crypto specific black swan think ftx in 2022 but
barring a black swan and i don't bet on black swans that's a losing trade
but barring a black swan, I think 60K holds.
Do you really?
I don't see the bond. I think we slipped
in the 50s, man.
I don't know how we... I think
most certainly we got to go test it.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
I agree there. We're going to
ping pong and
our hearts will skip a beat every time it takes a wick into the low 60s.
But, you know, whether we – remember 2022?
Remember how many times we tested and retested or retested 1819K?
And it literally took the FTX disaster to punch a hole through that original capitulation wick.
It literally took the worst crypto scandal, knock on wood, in our short Bitcoin lifetime to get down to $15.5.
And that's what I'm talking about.
I just don't see, you know, we need something.
But we're not anywhere close to that feeling right now
right I don't think so man
right that lasted
three months and we're not anywhere close
to that sentiment there's still a lot of opium
a lot of oh
you know the clarity bill and this bill
and Trump and I
but I mean I don't know if you guys
been watching Pam Bondi but i think that is
a black swan dude like you know what if we're having a slow rolling black swan in congress
right now because i watch some of that that lady has so much dirt on her hands it's disgusting i
mean it is a horrible uh anyone responding that way can't even be a leader of our country.
Okay, so horrific or screaming at people.
But then – so I don't disagree. I'm trying to be careful. I don't want to get too political. I don't disagree with you there.
We have a lot of investment here.
Yeah.
And when Bondi answers a question of, hey, about trafficking, and then she says, hey, dude, we have a stock market that's $50,000.
The Dow's up all-time high.
I'm like, wow, that wasn't a question.
Yeah, way to read the room.
Exactly.
That was bad.
Are you telling me that if you actually release all this, we figure out that every corporation is compromised and their margins wouldn't even be there?
See, that's the problem for me, Matt.
That's fair.
Is that her threat is, dude, if we discover this,
nobody's going to invest into these companies.
Now that is a depression.
But at a certain point, like what's very easy for this administration to do
if they just get sick of her answers and her talking?
They'll just replace her. They'll just replace her. And would not the market respond like, oh, thank goodness
you got her out of there. Like anyone, give us anyone. I don't think so. I think the market
would say, okay, let's see the data now. That's fair. We are going to see the data.
But that's another, but then, you know, know that's another and maybe we kick the can
down the road or maybe or maybe some good comes out of it but like i think the market would respond
like that's what i'm talking about like it can't if it can't get worse than her and and any sort of
improvement on her behavior or if she gets replaced i think the market responds, right? And you get a bounce.
Like how long would you put it?
Like, and if she's damaged, you know,
pretend you're in the administration. If she's damaging the message and she's damaged,
like she's getting away from like,
hey, this needs to be about affordability and midterms
and turning the corner.
And like, we just do, can't deal with her anymore.
She's hurting the market. She with her anymore she's hurting the markets
she's hurting she's hurting jobs she's like at a certain point you pulled the trigger right
and i think markets would immediately have a favorable reaction
yeah maybe maybe but it doesn't solve the problem i mean we have a i don't think america is going to
let this this go you can't just okay we're not going to go investigate thousands of people. Cause if we
don't, we are, we are assuring whoever's doing this, the redacted, they will be available into
the future. And if you're comfortable with your kids and your businesses being built with thousands
of redacted people who are monsters, they're powerful, fat, powerful people. And we don't know who they are, including if my name is on there. At this point, man,
I have an obligation to fucking clear my name. Because I don't know how we can have this many
read. Once the redactions came out, I'm like, okay, you know, there are people. We just don't
know who they are. And they are predators. So if you don't
reveal them, we continue with this Ponzi scheme, this monopoly. I got to tell you, it's not a
healthy investment cycle for me. I look at it and go, wow, you have to get rid of these people.
You know, if it's the head of banking, I think that's what we're going to find. It's the head
of risk management. It's the head of the banks, the that's what we're going to find. It's the head of risk management.
It's the head of the banks.
The boards, are you guys telling me you don't think someone,
board member at Microsoft, knew there was serious problems and they hit it?
Dude, that's gross negligence.
Okay?
The class actions that are going to come after this, I'm just really, I got to say, I am more nervous about what I'm seeing that could really just, you know, fuck our economy up, man.
Really fuck it up.
And explain fully why we are where we are, which is we do not have a free market anymore.
We have a club.
And that's my concern because it is so clubby.
fried chicken and all the private equity firms that own these companies they're
just selling poison you know fucking killing the air making money all kinds
of different places I mean we just found out last year that Facebook was working
with the government divisions divisions all across the government it's a public
company man they didn't tell anyone what they were doing, much less they were some external groups, and everybody just lets it go.
Zuckerberg literally said, hey, we worked with the government to confuse the COVID-19 message and the voting.
And everybody's like, oh, yeah, okay, well, you still have a job, sir.
Awesome.
I just know there's a club club and I ain't in it.
I've never been invited to it, but the way I build businesses, these people are doing shit
that it's like, it's almost like they've been given Cinderella's fucking magic wand.
I'm not a stupid guy. I work my ass off, but these guys make billions and billions and billions.
But these guys make billions and billions and billions, and everything they're doing is obfuscated. or subordinated to their shareholders,
and at whatever cost, including harming their consumers,
they will increase their quarterly earnings growth.
This is their mandate, right?
And they have a legal obligation to the shareholders, not the consumers. The moment a host starts protecting his investment funds at the expense of the consumers, that host is going to
become totally vampiric and parasitic to everything in the system and eat itself.
I was on a show this morning and they were talking about all the banks. I'm like, dude,
the banks have maxed out the touch on every consumer. There is no more consumers to get for the bank. It's a declining
demographic. So what do they do? They squeeze more money out of the same customer. That is the
only business strategy they have or collapse. And I just think we're seeing the last hundred years
of we're just going to milk the consumer for fucking every piece, ounce of tears and wealth and oxygen this entity has in his fucking body.
And that can't continue.
It's not sustainable.
Anyway, sorry for the rant, guys.
That was good, man.
That was right.
And I would agree with you.
And I also do think prices are going to slide a bit further.
These downturns always end in some massive headline.
It even happened during that small correction in August of 2024.
You'll remember that, Matt.
Same thing with March of 2023.
Even though we continued upwards, these massive corrections,
they always end up with some headlines.
So, yeah.
Some companies are probably going to go under.
Is there anything else that you want to say, Matt?
I saw you dropped and you requested back.
Yeah, I think I walked to the other side of the house and the Wi-Fi, the mesh Wi-Fi.
They got to fix those, you know, switching in between hotspots.
You shouldn't drop your...
Anyway, long story short,
I thought the jobs news this morning was pretty encouraging. That was pretty exciting.
You know, the doomers and the bears were really worried about this one being the big one and a falling off of the cliff. But hey, finally a jobs that was, you know, not just 80, not just 90, but 130,000 plus on the positive side.
That's great to see, you know.
Obviously, one month doesn't make a trend, but now we can talk, you know, we've got a couple of months of jobs data ever since the government shutdown from last fall.
So, yeah, I don't know what the future holds either, but if employment is going to hold
in strong and we're not seeing a new spike in inflation and, you know, Jerome Powell's
on his way out, he's stepping down from a Fed chair and you're
getting your new guy in who sounds like the only reason he even was considered is he's going to
give Trump X amount of Fed cuts to start off. I think the bottom has a floor. It doesn't mean something worse can't come out over the spring and summer.
I think of 2022 when we were just incredibly bearish and it was rough all year long.
And then at the very end of the year, just when S&P 500 and NASDAQ and blue chips and
MAG7 were starting to pick themselves off the mat.
Then we got hit with the whole FTX capitulation.
Nothing says something like that can't also happen.
Some sort of Bitcoin-specific or crypto-specific black swan.
But again, barring new bad information,
Again, barring new bad information, I think this is a fabulous time to start getting knee deep, elbow deep back into Bitcoin.
We wait for years for a bear market.
We've got one.
So I'm in.
hey gary what are some prices that you'd be comfortable in buying
i know you had mentioned at least 50k what's like your your lower bound target do you think we can
trade as low as like 35 38 oh that would surprise me hey and let's let me be clear okay uh it's not
that i'm not buying i like i i will buy some here. I'll buy some at
62. I think I'll buy 60, and I think I'll get 58. Will I get below that? Matt, I really appreciate
your thoughts on, hey, we wait this long for a bear market. It's here now but like only three weeks ago did we we're just starting to
confront oh we're here um so whatever cycle this is it seems to be there is some cycle i don't know
if it's a bitcoin cycle but it's some type of weird cycle um but i'll be surprised if we don't
look if we punch through 58 we're going to 55 and 50 so that's why i'm so
focused on this 58 uh now i would back the fucking truck up at 50 i mean not i mean if it goes to 50
it's probably going to go to 48 and try 38 could be one day though i mean that could happen in one day. And I think we need a probably event-driven thing.
I mean, look, guys, I could imagine something like this.
Hey, J.P. Morgan, we found all the documents of J.P. Morgan. There's a trillion dollars used with a major bank, major, major, major people.
And that would dump the fucking market, man.
Okay, I just think it's more likely that we're going to find out,
like, we have a fucking ruined nation.
We have a ruined nation, man.
A good thing is we got a lot of energy. I don't think this is forever, but I just, players, investors motivated by $300, $600 Bitcoin.
A good thing is we got a lot of energy.
I don't think this is forever, but I just,
Like you got a thousand Bitcoin at $600.
Your motives are different than mine.
My average price is $57.
Now, who's got motive and incentive?
Now, who's got motive and incentive?
I still say there is half a trillion dollars sitting inside of cheap OG Bitcoin wallets that must come to the market.
And they're being assholes at this point, bitching about the ETFs.
But those coins all need to get refreshed at a new price.
They've been sitting there doing nothing.
And if you listen to these bulls, start asking these guys, everybody that's
bullish, when was the last time you bought substantial volumes of Bitcoin at today prices,
knowing your average is $300. And the consistent message of these guys trying to pump the stock
right now are $300 Bitcoiners who have not bought $70,000 Bitcoin
300 times. They say they're buying Bitcoin, but nobody ever asked, dude, was it $50 DCA?
You have 1,000 Bitcoin at 300 bucks. You're telling the audience, you're DCA in every month,
but you never tell them that, hey, 50 bucks dude so that's not meaningful what's
meaningful is a guy like me coming in going okay i'm gonna buy a thousand bitcoin let's roll at
5780 grand uh that's what we need until we get that i i don't and it's a fucking immature space
okay it's really started to irritate me
so immature there's so many factions in here and when we should all be working together
in addition to all that i don't know who asked the question but like i'm looking at ethereum
going fuck dude if ethereum can't do anything more than hopi to move. You got Vitalik going back on L2s going,
hey, this isn't going to work.
Dude, that thing could sink the whole fucking crypto market.
It's just too big.
Much less add Solana.
And I mean, there's just, then you got the SBRs.
Like you got, what, 100 companies,
10 of them are going to go out of business.
And they were just launched nine months ago.
So it's got a lot of perverse incentives, this market.
And I just think, imagine people having crude oil that they didn't cost them to store.
people having crude oil that they didn't cost them to store. See, this is one of the problems
See, this is one of the problems with Bitcoin.
in the Bitcoin. If you had crude oil or real estate in Manhattan, that some of you came into
Bitcoin because you heard that analogy, and you held it for 100 years, you don't just hold that
shit for 100 years. You have to pay storage and rental fees and maintenance fees, right?
Bitcoin, there are no storage fees.
So there is no incentive for anyone to ever move that shit out of the wallets.
In fact, there's an incentive just to say, I'm going to hold this off the market,
be the self-custody guy, and starve the rest of the market,
knowing, hey, that's half a trillion dollars, man, of wealth that's just sitting there, okay? Potential wealth, half a trillion dollars. of wealth that's just sitting there okay potential well half a trillion
dollars how many people i mean i don't think people really half a trillion dollars in profit
um if a crude oil guy was holding on to 10 cent crude oil and didn't have any storage fees what
do you think the price of crude oil would be today half the crude oil on
the planet only cost 10 cents cost nothing to store the and we have a 62 market
i would love somebody to tell me how that works out we've lost 3 million coins
we have at least half a trillion four to five million coins at super cheap prices.
Glassnode will tell you that.
And then the rest of it's priced at, what do we have, about 18%, no, about 20% of the market's underwater right now or even more.
So does anybody know what the unrealized losses are on Bitcoin right now?
I thought it was like around 92 grand um or something like that so
am i making sense or yeah yeah i i get you i get you gary so what do you think it's going to take
for like more guys like you to come into the market like knowing what you know now right what
do you think it would take for some other guys to come in rather than? Well, the guys like me have already come into this because if you look at these people,
y'all talk about these personality tests.
I think that's a little bit of a narcissistic thing.
But look, it's really where people take their levels of risk, right?
Like it was so natural for me to come in here before my brother.
I take more risks than he does.
I'm early in the I like the juice of a new
market. It's scary. You can penetrate the market faster and easier and make a big impact. Whereas
you come in four years later, it's a little difficult, more difficult. But so I think you're
seeing layers of different people come in. The people that are really here came here to solve a problem. And my brother
finally realized, hey, this is getting really hard. The problem is, I think the next people
that come in here, we need a better marketing team for Bitcoin. The marketing is horrific.
And until that matures, until you guys can, like, until the industry can really communicate,
and maybe it's just these rooms, but these people are not going to self-custody $100 million of Bitcoin, okay?
They are not.
And they don't even want to hear about it.
It's a turnoff.
It's not the first entry.
I mean, if you guys go on a date and you figure out, you meet this girl in the grocery store,
and the first, oh, yeah, I'll go go on a date and you figure out you meet this girl in the grocery store and the first, oh yeah, I'll go out on a date. By the way, you know, I have a chastity belt on and you're not
going to stick your thing in me. And I don't really like guys that look like you. And you're
not going out with her, dude. Like we poo-poo all over our own product and don't understand the new
customer. The new customer has shitloads of money.
They are not going to invest 100% of it into Bitcoin.
If we get 4% or 5% of their money, we'll be happy.
We should get their distributions from all their fiat investments
and be happy with them doing that
and expect that they're going to buy more gold, silver, and equities
than they're going to buy Bitcoin
because Bitcoin has only touched 10 million fucking people.
It is not scaled.
It is tiny little gnat on a massive elephant.
And we keep talking about 450 million wallets.
It's not true.
Okay, there's half a billion investors in the world.
Bitcoin's got one to two percent of max that's 10 million people man it's four thousand dollars a pop so that's what we need we need the
masses and you're not going to get the masses without these paper derivatives and then we
spend all our time on space and saying well bitcoin there's 37 flavors of Bitcoin. Why do we want it? Like,
they can learn that themselves. I don't know why we pitch it, okay? And the truth, like,
if I was buying gold and silver right now, I would not buy physical gold and silver.
Not a chance, man. And I am a commodities guy. I would buy paper because I can turn the paper faster. I can't turn physical silver and gold easily. So you're not
going to talk these new investors outside the crypto community not to use paper products.
It's the Wall Street products. It's not a chance, man. It's like selling a piece of food in a massive Costco,
and you're trying to compete with the Costco trade.
I just, it is naive, ignorant,
and we're getting our asses kicked by the banks on this fucking crypto bill.
So we don't do, and we bitch about Brian Armstrong
spending a fucking $100 million doing lobby efforts.
I mean, he's spent more money, and that company spent more money, and we bitch about Coinbase.
Like, wow, I wouldn't be here if they hadn't done that.
Because I know you need people like that, sitting in fucking Washington meetings, holding the line.
holding the line. But dude, at 58, 48, 60, I mean, in four years, this is going to be an awesome
investment. Okay. There is no place to go now, but it could just be a rocky road. That's all
I'm trying to encourage people. It's not straight up and vertical, you know, and that's the
opportunity. Like if I know we're going to 40,
if I feel like, oh, this is weaker than it is strong. If it's strong, I'll jump, I'll change
directions immediately. But I don't, the one bitch I have about Bitcoin, they push the
supply. Hey, you're going to run out of Bitcoin. The price is going to run away.
supply. Hey, you're going to run out of Bitcoin. The price is going to run away.
I wished I had never chased Bitcoin. And I'm not saying I've done a bad job chasing. I have
chased it a little bit. You have plenty of time to buy Bitcoin. That's what I have learned.
And if you just set your number, if your number happens to be shit, Gary's going to buy it at 60.
I'll set a bid at 61. You set your bid at
61 and go about your life. You will get filled. You will get filled, man. It's not going to run
to 92 and you're going to miss it. I would love to know these stories of people that missed it.
Now, I know some people missed it at 6,000 when they sold it at four, but they didn't reenter.
They didn't go, okay, if it goes past 6,000, I'll jump back in. Okay. You know, you're on a wild fucking pony.
You're not, no one's predicted this girl. That's why I call her the redhead, you know,
a fucking crazy bitch, dude. Not one person, not one human being, even the insiders have not figured out Bitcoin, which I find very, very spectacular is a feature.
And then you got to just ask, I asked myself this last question, even though I sound like I'm being really pessimistic.
What else would I invest my money in?
What else would I invest my money in?
Even thinking with my comments about Congress and what I'm seeing Bondi do today, dude,
Bitcoin's still the most sovereign exit hatch for me that I could obtain, even knowing everything
I know.
Where else am I going to go?
Buy NVIDIA, Palantir, General Electric, Westinghouse, invest in Brazil?
I don't think so.
I don't know where else to go but Bitcoin. So that's where I get comfortable is in that, okay, over the 4 to 8, 12 years,
and I do think that most of you guys are 27 years old.
So eight years from now, you're 35 years old.
That's the way I would be thinking.
Hey, man, when I'm 35, I've stacked 30 Bitcoin. Don't really care what the price is, but I'm
going to be one of a very small group of people. That's my worst case scenario, whoever asked that
question. I have a very sizable position relative to 16 million coins. I think there'll be a big enough community in those 16 million coins
because I actually reduced the lost ones, that that will be enough for me to have an economy
and for me to live in a prosperous way. And that's the worst case, right? That's to me,
it's a good case. So hope that helped, man fired man evan if there's anything you want to say to follow that up feel yeah i mean i
think one of the things you got to realize too is like the average bear market lasts i mean it
obviously varies i know people are going to say it varies it could be anything it could be random
yes that's true but the average bear market lasts about a year
and that's not just crypto that's most things that's the s p 500 that's most things that are
going to come back and not go to zero and i think we all agree here that bitcoin's going to come
back i mean i don't think you'd be in the space if you thought otherwise so where is that i mean
that would be a kind of a dca you're already down quite a bit that would be a kind of a DCA. You're already down quite a bit. That would be a DCA that would at least cover, I would say from now to a year from the peak.
When is that October? When is that like October? So February to October, about eight months DCA.
So that's what it would kind of equate to. And you'd get those really low numbers, assuming,
you know, assuming things do go a lot lower. I mean,
it's impossible to call bottoms and things of that nature. I mean, if you look at it from previous,
you know, drawdowns, it's gotten less volatile over time. You know, I mean, I don't feel like
I've mentioned, I mean, I don't really see it going anything much under like 48K. I mean,
there could be wicks and stuff lower, but I don't really think you're
going to get to those low, low numbers. I think that the main thing for institutions is like,
it's a big barrier at like 48k. And I don't think you would be under there for a while.
I think the big question, and I agree with Gary that, you know, it's going to get down to TradFi
too. I mean, the big question is how much does a 10% correction for the S&P 500 bring Bitcoin down?
I don't think it's as much as people would think.
And the reason is because of that institutional interest, because of that big wealth interest.
I think a lot of the people that are big wealth, they probably already got out of Bitcoin.
our big wealth they probably already got out of bitcoin and i don't think that that drop down for
the s p 500 will bring down bitcoin to like crazy loan numbers like you know your 30ks or what what
have you you know things of things of that nature now those those sell-offs for nasdaq s p 500 ai
companies that could mess with that could definitely mess with um altcoins so definitely be careful with that but
i think in terms of bitcoin probably not i would say you know with all this stuff happening with
the current state of the u.s you know in the government all this stuff you know with everything
going on you know every little files coming out i mean i think it's not good yeah it's definitely
not good is it gonna run us into an actual recession highly unlikely is it you know gonna
run us into a 10 or 15%
S&P 500 correction that you see on average, you know, every year, two years? Absolutely. You know,
that's what it's looking like. And that kind of would coincide with monetary policy, the pausing
of cutting rates. And I, you know, to kind of equate to midterm, you know, a lot of things,
midterm years too. I mean, I think, you know, a lot of people, I think it's the turn for the Democrats to gain the House back. And I think that you're probably generally going to see more
motions towards the Democrats, you know, over the next few years. I think that, I don't know,
this isn't completely related, but I do think probably in 2028, the Democrats will take the
House and the Senate. And I think you probably will see the Republicans stay in, assuming you avoid a recession, you know, until then. But that's where I think the real tables
are going to turn in terms of like actual recessions and all that. And really AI really
showing how many jobs it's taken away to potentially cause a recession, you know, 28 to 2032.
I mean, you could even argue, I would say, I would be curious on you, some of your guys
is after like the dot-com bubble or during it, like part of that, there were a lot of factors
going on then. But I mean, part of that was a lot of people changing their jobs. You know,
why the S&P 500 went down, why employment was kind of higher during that time, why you went
into recession. It was a lot of people kind of changing their jobs. And I think you're going to see that same transition,
transitory phase, you know,
towards the end of this decade or early next decade.
You're starting to see it a little bit.
I think in the terms of when ChachiBT came out,
you've seen unemployment gradually go higher since then.
And I think that's one of the bigger reasons too.
The other thing too, if you look historically,
like unemployment never really stays like really low, like 3% for that, that long. I don't know
why, but it just never does. And it generally kind of goes up from there. And I think that's just
the general framework. Cause we keep changing the baseline, Evan. Okay. Guys like me are no longer
in the employment role. We just keep removing people from it. I mean, that's the baseline, Evan. Okay. Guys like me are no longer in the employment role.
We just keep removing people from it. I mean, that's the only, that's the only explanation,
right? I mean, do y'all really believe these numbers that just popped up today? I don't
believe any fucking numbers anymore. I think one of the things that's kept it lower, I agree with
you. Yeah, a hundred percent. But I think one of the things that's kind of kept it lower to a
certain extent is the fact of the gig economy where, I mean, I know people in Brickell, Miami, that literally they don't have a car, they don't even have a bicycle, nothing.
And they're delivering food and just walking around Brickell and making like 20 or 30 bucks an hour.
I think once that gets automated away, I think that'll bring unemployment higher. You've been in a gig economy since around 2015, where people can
make a decent salary doing, you know, basic stuff. And that opportunity wasn't really around, you
know, from 2008 to 2015, it came out with Uber and stuff like that. And I think once that gets
automated away, and I think you're three, four years from where that really starts to hit,
you're getting there a little bit in the big cities.
But if I had to guess where Waymo is available almost everywhere, that's probably going to be like three, four years, probably around 2030, that area.
And I think that's the real transitory phase where unemployment goes sky high.
sky high, you finally get a recession. Um, so yeah.
You finally get a recession.
So, yeah.
Evan, I would agree on some things being automated. I mean, ask yourself this,
when was the last time you went through a drive-thru instead of,
instead of just having Uber eats, man. Um,
I went through a drive-thru yesterday. Um, and, uh, I went with this girl, man, and she's telling the lady right at a McDonald's, like, could I have a small coffee, right?
You took a date to a drive-thru, man?
No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
So we put gas in the car, right?
And she was like, oh, I want a coffee.
And it was like midnight, right?
And it was a gas station and it was uh a gas
station that's connected to like a mcdonald's or whatever right and that was the only place to get
coffee at midnight so whatever this was before the gym and the lady gives her such a hard time
she freaks out it's like see this is this is why I fucking hate drive-thrus.
And she was just saying how, like, if this was AI or if she just ordered it for pickup through Uber Eats, this wouldn't be a problem, right?
And the last few times that I went through a drive-thru before that, it was almost the same exact thing like how is it possible that drive-thrus still get backed up and it's usually because the other people working there are mostly complacent like they
don't really pay attention they're they're just goofing off and stuff and um evan do you think
drive-thrus and stuff like that will be automated I know there's like a few uh
fast food locations where it's literally just automation like there there's there is no line
or anything it's just purely automated I think Taco Bell is running um a pilot definitely I mean
it's not gonna happen overnight it's gradual man I mean it's slow like it's not just like one day you know
everything's normal and then two weeks later you know ai is doing everything for you and robots
are you know it's going to take time but yeah eventually you know four or five years you're
going to see more and more of it i mean it's going to take longer in less developed countries and all
that um you know like you see so many teslas and stuff in the U S I mean, I don't,
I'm in Peru right now.
I haven't seen one Tesla.
I mean, it's, it's stuff like that.
It's going to take longer in other places, but fast food, stuff like that.
Yeah.
I think that's going to be fully automated.
Like there's even, I'll tell you, there's even Airbnbs and hotels I've stayed at, especially
in Japan.
Yeah.
There's hotels in Japan where it's fully a hundred percent Singapore to fully a hundred
percent automated.
You just check in on a iPad and it gives you the code
and you just type in the code for the room, 100% automated.
So there's still going to be some people needed, I guess,
on call if something happens.
But you got to realize like they're going to do all they can
to have the least amount of employees.
I haven't been to a McDonald's in a while, but you walk in,
it's all kiosk.
And then if you, even if you want to order something at the the freaking normal way to order
something guys like oh give me a minute and then he never comes back they just you know i mean
yes yes yes and and no i did not take this girl on a date to mcdonald's i just want to make that
abundantly clear okay we just put in gas and she was sleepy or whatever i'm like hey there's
there's a coffee here at this mcdonald's right um and just keeping you in the audience uh on your
toes man but uh anyways what happened was like she's like oh i've never been through a drive
through before like this girl has never been through a drive-thru before like this girl has never been through a drive-thru um she
is from another country i'll say that but she's never been through a drive-thru in america okay
and she was saying she was telling the the drive-thru lady could i have the creamer on the
side right just a basic coffee right vanilla sugar-free with the creamer on the side and then she's like oh so we'll
fries on the side right and she's like no no fries on the side and there was this it was this
it was this whole thing man and she started freaking out and she's like she's like oh my
god wabi can we get out of here can we get out of here i'm getting so stressed out because
you know it was a long line
and we were waiting for like five minutes.
Not even five minutes passed by.
This girl's on the verge of a breakdown crying.
I'm looking at Bryce and I'm like...
Bobby, this is the most American
story I've heard in my life.
Yes, dude.
Yes.
It's like...
Dude, I had a date last night and i gotta tell you my
date was very different than yours now i was not that and i was also out with a uh a non-american
what what are you are you going south or east uh she's uh she's she's latina like she's she's uh
she's latina but um yeah it's like we got to the drive-thru and the lady's like hello and she's Latina. But, yeah, it's like we got to the drive-thru, and the lady's like, hello.
And she's like, oh, is that for me?
And I'm like, yeah, it is.
But anyways, we get the coffee.
We drive, like, probably two to three feet.
And we stay there for about five minutes.
And it's like, does it usually take this long?
And whatever.
Like, she's freaking out.
She's almost on the verge of tears.
And I had to get out of the car and tell, like, the few cars, like, hey, I'm with a girl right now.
And she's crying.
And she really wants to leave.
So, I mean, they did that.
And we left.
So, that was that.
And anyways, yeah, drive-thrus.
They suck.
And, yeah. I know that's like not market related but uh yeah speaking about automation automation and all that stuff what would be like the best
things to long for that like how do you long in patience how do you long in patience
sedentary lifestyles dump the chick and oh no no she's he's not my she's not my
girlfriend i'm not i'm not dumb enough to to to do that no no not in a bear market like i i i can't
do anything serious until bitcoin is like over 100k um and probably soul above 200, however long that takes. But, um, what, what do you guys think
will be like the long trade for that? Cause that, that is a trend. Um, I think staying indoors,
having everything automated to you, click of a button. Um, I can't really think of anything
outside of like Solana and pump fun stuff if you
want to talk about longing degeneracy and complacency and everything being
automated like it's it's it's the the the indoor casino from home right it's
phantom wall it's like that it's. I think, like, Tesla, you know, RoboTaxi,
Waymo's Google.
Micron and
Sandisk, are those going to be
some of those names that
follow through? I don't know.
I don't even know what...
That's just my ignorance. I don't even know what those do, really.
They're just
chips companies. Probably. But they're just they're just uh chips chips companies probably um but they're not they're
not like penny stocks or anything i think micron has an avowal of like 400 bill close to five
sandisk is trading at 90 bill so they they are somewhat high cap companies. They're just not they're not mega cap tech.
And finding this trade in crypto is is really weird.
It used to be Solana, but I don't know what's going on with that.
Some people do say that Solana has to trade a lot lower than people expect in order for i guess like the crypto trade outside of bitcoin
um to be realized right because when trump was coming in office the trade was solana that was
like the the trade and now it's like all right now we got to wait it out you know what's what's
what's the next one um and stocks it used to be
nvidia because it was a national security issue but i'm sorry buying a four trillion dollar stock
is just that's just insane man that's insane i'm sorry i have to i have to go out further in the
risk curve i'm not i'm not big bags of money business, you know, but, um, small caps. Whoa. Okay.
Were you going to say something? I see you're off mute, man.
Hey, what's up, brother? Yeah. I kind of got booted off, had some issues, um,
about an hour ago. No, I wasn't going to say anything specific to the, uh,
to the topic. I remember what we were talking about, whatever it was an hour ago,
I was, I was going gonna say something and then i
i got kicked from the whatever an x glitch was so i won't go back there but good to be back
oh yeah man yeah i i think over the last i think probably over the last five minutes we deviated
away from from like specific market talk stuff.
And Evan was mentioning stuff like automation and all that stuff in regards to unemployment,
how we've been in a gig economy over the last 10 years.
You didn't really have that during the last, I guess, economic downturn,
which was Post.com, which is so weird, man,
because we were all kids, and it's like, dude,
I remember playing Tony Hawk games,
playing Tony Hawk's Underground on the Nintendo GameCube,
playing Super Smash Bros. Brawl on the Wii.
You know, I was like, dude, we were all on the Nintendo Wii
just waving our arms around while people were suffering,
and it's really hard to grasp.
I had no idea what was going on.
Yeah, yeah, playing Gears of War,
screaming at people on Call of Duty Black Ops.
Like, those lobby rooms, man, people think spaces are rough
and they have mean characters.
They have, like, mean people with crazy personalities.
like mean people with crazy personalities bro if anyone was ever in an xbox in an xbox uh lobby
playing call of duty or halo 3 like in the 2010s bro that is hardcore man these rooms have nothing
compared to that um but anyways yeah everyone's just going along those lines like
back then we didn't really have ways to avoid unemployment we didn't have gig economies or any
of that stuff it was just if if you were screwed you were just screwed there was nowhere to hide
right but now you could hide and he was mentioning how in some of these compressed areas, like in South Florida, like Brickell,
people are able to actually earn $20, $30 an hour
just by delivering food on their feet.
Because when you're talking about a space that's probably, what,
10 to 15 blocks total, 80% of that is just pure commerce.
Literally 80% of that is just pure commerce.
And with the rise of AI and automation, automation right with waymo and all that stuff uh unemployment is probably going to trend up and to the right
and that trend started really when chat gpt came out it's probably going to accelerate
stuff like that yeah totally and then uh yeah and then i had given a story, small caps, where yesterday I went with a girl to the gym.
And then before that, I had to put gas in the car and there was like a McDonald's, right?
And you've seen that, right?
The McDonald's gas station combo.
That's like the most American thing ever.
But you get your beef jerky or whatever and you get something at mcdonald's
that's like americana but anyways uh went through the drive-thru and she's like i've never been
through a drive-thru before ever right and long story short i get the coffee and the lady she's
like oh you want a side of fries because she's no, I want the creamer on the side, right, for the coffee.
And whatever.
She starts freaking out, saying, like, was she trying to make fun of me?
How could she not understand me?
Whatever.
Pull up two to three feet.
We stay there for just over five minutes.
And she just starts losing it, saying how she's getting impatient, how why aren't the cars moving?
What's going on? And she's basically on the verge of tears.
And so I had to get off and then tell the few cars behind us like, hey, you know, I've got a girl here.
She's crying. Can you please move? I really have to go.
This is an emergency and whatever. Yeah. As a man, you need to have quick reflexes.
Liquidations in person happen and you need to be mindful of your stop loss.
That means reacting immediately and then thinking.
As a man, you react and then think, not the other way around.
Too much thinking, bad idea.
But, yeah, that's kind of where we're at in the conversation, man.
Oh, man, yeah, I think the stop-loss hit when she said she's never been through a drive-thru.
I don't know if, I mean, maybe, I guess I'm just luxury, you know,
I'm fortunate enough to have a car, but shit, I go through drive-thrus like once a week at the minimum
um like
earlier
she was asked
any of you guys ever gotten laid while going through
a uh driveway
or whatever we call it
you guys don't know
what you're fucking doing okay I need to
fucking put on a seminar so you guys can man
your shit up me and Jason
do a
do a weekend uh your your your date does not sound you're like you want to know what's crazy
she's like hey i've got like 50 grand liquid right um should i buy into crypto right and
she's like oh you know i'll give i'll give you i'll give you a i'll give you a cut and then
i'm like nah nah i don't think it's a good idea and then in the back of my mind i'm like man we're
probably gonna nuke so hard and yeah uh we actually did nuke and we dropped from like 80k to 60.
it was it was quite something man and i'm like man you know if i were to buy something it'd
probably be hyper liquid but then i thought to myself but how many people
are thinking like that that's complacency right let me just hide in hype
that's complacency so if I'm saying that then we have to drop like you can't you
can't hide in an altcoin no matter how strong it looks and then we dropped it
I'm like oh my gosh thank god like
i didn't actually tell her to buy anything because if this girl's tweaking about a drive-through and
staying there for five minutes like oh my goodness god help me you know and and and that that that
goes without saying like there are just some people that you should not tell them to ever buy.
You cannot.
You just can't.
I remember telling an ex of mine to buy Zarebro, and she was up like 5X,
and she held that all the way to like minus 95.
She also bought Trump coin, and she was up like 5X was up i was about to say my boy had his my
boy had his girlfriend buy trump coin to it like 71 dollars oh my god and and none of the she bought
it she bought it she bought it like five bucks she bought it at five and then she rotated it
into fucking melania and she doubled it so this girl turned like 200 bucks into a few grand in like 24 hours
dude and i'm like yo you gotta you gotta sell it just sell it and whatever she blew it all away
she didn't listen um and that's kind of what happens right it's like some people
some people's first experience and being here long term is they make
money and they blow it all and then they come back and they probably blow it all two or three
more times and then you know they manage it properly i guess yeah you know it's robbie it's
funny like the psych the psychology behind it because i i personally i missed the boat in
robin hood last year um like i played around with rob Hood in 21 22 23, but I never really owned it
I'm I completely missed the boat from whatever it was 30 40 to 150
and I was saying how like back in, you know
September October November of last year. I'm like man, I'd really
Like a dip right like I I'd love an opportunity to get back in. And obviously, you know, we had
the dip from one 50 to one 18 and, and I was thinking about it there and I held off and now
I don't even want to touch it. Um, and it's, it's like when things are going good, right? You're,
you're, you're wanting to get back in, uh, or get some skin in the game. And then when things look
awful, you kind of are a little bit hesitant.
I mean, I'm not one to be hesitant when things are looking ugly.
But just, I mean, I was going to ask Evan this question before I hopped off.
Oh, it looks like he's actually not on here anymore.
But, I mean, Wabi, you just said it yourself.
You're like, I could see myself buying and then I was taking another nuke, right?
Like to that, you know, to to the lower 50 just breaking these lows kind of sweeping the uh that March um of 2024 to like October 2024 range right before
the election like that 40 to 60k area like we're all talking about how we could definitely see us
sweeping that area um again and just like catching some liquidity before heading higher and I'm
thinking to myself like you zoom out look at robin hood's daily chart now look at bitcoin's daily chart like it's it looks like the exact same asset um
are you talking about yeah hood hood yeah robin hood like what happens to i mean if bitcoin goes
to you know 55 50 um you know what happens to hood right like this was one of the most attractive
assets in the entire market last year
like everyone wanted hood everyone wanted to be in hood now everyone's kind of like backing off and
it's funny it's similar to kind of like the mining space that we were talking about how they're still
tied to bitcoin crypto you know robin hood is obviously has that time you just look at the chart
it looks like the exact same chart i'm pretty sure they both peaked on the same day. It might've been like October 5th, October 6th, um, right before 10, 10. Um, but yeah, you know, we were talking
about it yesterday and, uh, it, it def, it looks like it's, I mean, look, it bounced off of the
low from last week a little bit today, but I mean, I think that we're definitely going to hit,
you know, the high fifties to like 58 58 62. i could totally see that i could even
see the 40s for robin hood i was wondering what you were thinking about it because i know we had
some in-depth combo yesterday yeah uh i i think what solana was for crypto that's what hood is
for uh the equity market and what i mean by that is like, you know, we were talking
about positioning for trends, right? And the trend right now is logging complacency to go out and do
anything. And that is the online casino, right? The in-house casino, right? Right from your,
right from your bedroom and your boxers, your pajama pants, right? The in-house casino, right? Right from your bedroom and your boxers,
your pajama pants, right? You go on Robinhood, you buy some calls, sports betting, stuff like that.
Robinhood signups compared to Coinbase signups, it's night and day. You would think
Hood is basically what Coinbase was in 2021 or in 2017 um even though i think robin hood is
probably only a couple of years older than coinbase probably only like four years maybe
three to five years older than coinbase coinbase has been around since like 2012 or something like
that 2013. um so you're you're you're longing the individual that wants to
reach escape velocity escape the nine-to-five escapes a gig economy and
That's Robin Hood. That's the platform
So Solana was kind of viewed the same way you download your phantom wallet you download Twitter
follow certain
people get in certain groups and even though it's not as liquid as a stock market it still offers
some returns right you had many things going to billions on solana solana went to 300 bucks per
token and now solana is facing this huge issue with supply dynamics.
They have a lot of overhang supply, and you don't really have that with Vlad and Hood.
He's not diluting his shares.
Maybe what's happening to MicroStrategy is a better way to describe what's happening to Solana.
You have a guy diluting his company to buy more bitcoin and what's going on with solana is that there's so much inflation due to i'm not sure if you know about like what's going on what's what's
been happening in solana since inception to run a node on solana it costs a lot of money
so you always have this huge overhang supply um where those validators they they they dump on
the market as supply increases so there's just a lot more selling pressure on solana where there
is hood you don't really have that problem so um and you compare the valuations between hood
and soul solana valuation can go high but usd token valuation is going to have a
lot harder time to reach all-time high you don't really have that case with hood so and they also
kind of had they they have the both they have the same uh growth story both of them have the same
growth story um but i i i would agree Hood bottoms, it's probably a better buy than Solana.
As far as BTC, I would consider both the largest equity holders in hood is Ken Griffith.
And I think I think Citadel has like 40 percent of the flows on Robinhood as far as market making.
And they can just drop the ball on that whenever they want. So they're at the mercy of Ken Griffith.
It's hot now. Right. it's hot for the next few
years but i mean you know bitcoin's gonna be here for decades right so for now the gross story of
hood i think still has legs in it if if if you think um gen z as they get older and i'm not sure
what generation comes after gen z but the current demographic that can come into the market
they're most likely going to be using uh robin hood robin hood is like the apple you can compare
it to like early apple right and apple just got better and better over time um so 100 yeah i think it absolutely is um i like i just think it's i think we're just in a rough
spot for risk on assets right now just i mean we don't have to talk about it again we we kind of
touch on it like at least three or four times a week on this space as far as just where we are uh
in in the market and the economy with with respect to liquidity and just more risk
off assets, like there's money flowing, uh, you know, into those, those names.
Like we, you know, we talk about staples, utilities and, and, uh, healthcare insurance
energy versus NASDAQ tech and, uh, and crypto is obviously going to get hit, hit from that.
But, you know, anytime, I think we're just seeing like a little bit of a valuation de-risking right now.
Like when you zoom out, obviously valuations do not correlate to revenue.
There's way more that goes into it.
But looking across like specific different sectors, you know, you got Robinhood, right?
At all-time highs, I think the valuation was like
160 billion, something around there. And their revenues were, I mean, like 40 times below that,
right? Like it was like four and a half billion versus 160 billion in market cap. So when we get
into areas where like liquidity tends to tighten, we're just going to see growth stocks are going to get hit first.
You know, investors are taking a little bit, a little bit of risk off right now.
You can see that in the two-year treasury yield.
It's at its lowest level in three years.
Not that low, right?
We're from like the high fours now to like 3.8 something, or maybe it's three and a half.
Nonetheless, it's a three-year low.
And I mean,
David makes a good point. That's a really good indication of money is flowing a little bit away from the NASDAQ and from the higher risk stocks, even though some would say that the MAG7 isn't
really your high risk stocks, right? It's more of the growth stocks that are, but nonetheless,
money is flowing into safer assets. So whenever that happens, I think we just see some valuation de-risking as far as Robin hood goes. Like I definitely
would love to get a position long, um, as we come down a little bit lower and sort of start
to base out. Like, I don't want to, I don't catch falling knives. Um, I started my career doing that.
Like I was the knife catching professional where I would try to, or excuse me, try to
catch a knife where you try to catch something down 40% and a couple of weeks later, you're
down 15, 20% on your own, on your own position.
So I don't try to like catch knives.
I just want to watch where the money is flowing, but I would love to get a position in Robin
hood.
You know, the institutional backing they have is real.
And just as you were saying it literally is
It's it's that app and that platform for for gen z. I mean hell
One of my cousins is 14 years old. He just got his first job
And he literally has robin hood on his phone and he uses it as a savings account
He puts his money in it for the you know, like like like the money market yield that you get and i I'm thinking to myself, wow, like this is, he's definitely not the only 14 year old that has Robinhood.
So I, like, I like Robinhood.
I think it's, I think they're a great company.
I'm just, just like, I like a lot of companies in the growth sector right now.
I think it's just not, you know, I'm waiting for a little bit of a better time.
I think that there's a good, there's other sectors and assets in the market right now
that can make you a lot more money.
And then you come back, you know, once these growth names have sort of started to bottom
and show some like proof that they are trending higher and start seeing the money flow into them.
So it's an interesting period.
But yeah, I was just, it's just funny looking at that chart.
It really is a crypto, obviously it's a completely different asset set but it's a very like crypto reliant um name right now and i think it would be good for them to kind of
i would say get away from that but just the um like the adolescence of it's like a very company that as they grow um continue to get
larger and just solidify themselves as like a a less riskier asset they're going to start to
you know bitcoin price action and crypto movement's not really going to matter
as much as it does today so we'll see what happens there i think hood is a better buy than ethereum
um for the long term i think even against salon i think valuation wise if you want to play the
long game the story is a lot better for hood than it is uh for soul or ethereum because what
benefits soul and eth is going to benefit HUD a lot more.
You're going to be able to do DeFi on
Robinhood, which is going to be
insane, you know.
But I don't want to make this like a HUD
a HUD shell space
or whatever. But we have been
talking about that name on
this show for like three years almost.
I actually thought we have been talking about that, that name on this show for like three years, almost. Um,
I actually thought coin was going to be the one that outperformed,
up until like Q1 of 2024.
That was when I'm like,
all right,
hood's probably going to be the outperforming here.
Grant,
I saw you requested,
man.
How are you?
What's going on?
Yeah, good, man. Sorry. It took me a second to get back on.
Yeah, why do you connect the action in Robinhood to ETH or Solana rather than to COIN?
coin so i i would say um just just because robin hood is a better retail gauge than coinbase because
anything we can do on coinbase we can do on robin hood um there are more options it's more liquid
yeah yeah but what so why compare it to each or solana rather than
he's saying they're they're they would be okay yeah i i get i i get you now so
so i i would say so on solana right there's a lot of things to do just like on robhood, you can buy assets on Solana. And if Solana is just going to continue in this trajectory where it's just going to be these quick pump and dumps,
it's not really going to be sustainable amidst the high inflation of its token.
So the market cap could essentially be up only.
Whether it's hood, you don't really have that massive dilution.
You don't have Vlad diluting his shareholders. And when people go on Solana, their main objective
isn't to hold soul for the long term. It's to buy Solana, go on chain and basically gamble on
attention. It's tokenized attention. And what happens is most of the data
that we see on chain is most people over the long term, they lose on Solana. So you essentially
destroy liquidity. Any new liquidity that was generated from Solana going to $ dollars to 300 was destroyed in q1 of 25 with libra with melania coin and a
few other names um and you don't really have that predatory kind of price action on robin
hood maybe with gme right that was probably like the one bad thing that hood has ever has
has ever done um and it bounced back right after that.
They IPO'd, whatever.
They went down 85%, 90%,
and they came back with a vengeance.
Whether it's Solana,
I don't want to say their founders are complacent,
but something actually does have to be done.
But the narrative is effectively the same
between Solana and Robinhood.
Yeah, and then where would Robin Hood have to go?
What would you have to see to be a buyer of it?
I mean, I've been bullish on Hood since like $8, $9,
but if I were a fresh buyer and I'm a long-term guy.
I think I'd just buy probably now and just do the basic DCA.
But me personally, I wouldn't really be interested in doing business with hood until it's like sub-50, sub-50, sub-40, something like that.
I would want to see a hefty correction but I I I do think it's
gonna stick around I don't think it's I don't think it's common for a company to go to almost
200 billion in market cap and then never never come back you, I think either you or Gary said it one day where it's like I've never seen an American company trading trading over 100 billion and fail.
Something like that. I think it was one trillion.
And then I did some research and I think the biggest company that's ever failed American-based was Bear Stearns, something that actually went to zero, and Lehman.
And collectively, those two names...
Yeah, but it took 180 years to fuck up Lehman.
Yeah.
Hey, there's $185 dollars in losses right now sitting on
banks 185 billion i like the robin hood story man more than the coinbase story for sure i think they
grab it all grant because they're gonna they're gonna speak to the gens you know the new generation
who's gonna use charles swab it lost like today. They're just going to take market share from, you know,
the new generation of people that they're going to have everything.
There's sports betting.
You'll be able to do everything.
And I'd love to get Peter's thoughts on Robin Hood.
Uncle Peter, what's going on, man man it's been a couple of weeks.
I think the last I think when he was on the show gold was trading um right below
3,900 or something like that and then it just went up parabolically. Grant what are your thoughts
on metals here on precious metals if you look at them yeah i mean i've never i'm
just not a i'm not a buyer of precious metals ever so i don't believe it i don't get it
i don't want to store it i don't want to get it validated i think nothing of it i think there's
an endless supply of it as it goes up in price we'll find more and more i don't think there's an endless supply of it as it goes up in price we'll find more and more i don't think
there's anything precious about it i feel you on that small caps what about yourself
have you ever been a a buyer um yeah i mean i i have
oh hold on hey what's going on hey grant you know i i just got back from that latino wall
street event i thought you were going to be there i was looking forward to it
are you are you talking to me well ran i just saw him there and i i was expecting him to be there
was that at mar-a-lago yeah yeah yeah yeah i heard about it but I heard I was supposed to be there too.
Yeah, you and your wife were.
Then I heard you were going to be there, so I said, fuck it, Peter's going to be there.
I ain't going.
I only came last minute.
But yeah, I heard you guys talking about Robinhood.
And I would not be a buyer of that stock until it was substantially lower because
I do think that a lot of the customers of Robinhood are going to lose a lot of money.
And so that's obviously not going to be good for your business when your customers, it's like if
you're a casino and a lot of your regular guests blow up and they don't have money to gamble
anymore.
That's very good for the casino, Peter.
No, but I'm saying after they've already lost all their money, they can't come back.
They wiped themselves out.
So I think the typical Robinhood account is-
Peter, there's always another player, man.
Come on, you know that.
Well, I don't think the company's going away.
I mean, I think they'll be around,
but I just think the price of the stock
is going to go a lot lower.
I mean, I think the air is just starting
to come out of the crypto bubble.
That's not all their business,
but it's about a fourth of it or a fifth of it.
But I think a lot of people
that lose a lot of money in crypto,
I think a lot of these guys also have a lot of
tech stocks and things like that. They're not really invested where they should be.
I don't think they have a lot of foreign stocks, a lot of emerging markets, a lot of commodity-focused
investments. I mean, that's what's killing it this year. I mean, we had a phenomenal year last year.
I had my best year as a money manager last year.
And this year is already better than last year.
I mean, it's crazy the gains that we've had already this year across the board in everything that we own outside the US.
I mean, what's it like to be right?
What's it like to be right?
I mean, it's a new thing for you, right?
No, it's not a new.
Well, it's not a new thing for me as far as investing. So I had a really, really good decade from 2001 to 2011. I mean, I killed it with,
you know, 2007 was great with the subprime short, although that was just a small part of my book.
with the subprime short, although that was just a small part of my book. But before that,
remember, I was buying gold in the late 1990s under 300. I was buying silver under $5. I was
buying oil under 20 bucks. So we had a huge run. Oil went to 140, gold went to 1900 silver went almost to 50 and the dollar index
which in 1999 2000 was over 100 went down to 70. so i just i was killing you i had a huge book of
foreign stocks emerging markets commodities gold silver i did really really well you say huge book
how big how big is it what's the size of a huge book?
Well, at the time, I mean, that was my whole client base was there. It was a billion dollars
for me. I mean, I was one guy, right? I wasn't like a whole big Merrill Lynch or somebody,
but I had all my clients invested in those markets. And we did really, really well
during a period of time where the
U.S. market did not do well at all. The time period where I underperformed rather substantially
was from 2012 going up to 2023. So those years, I had some good years, I had some bad years. We
made money, but not as much as I would have made just staying in
the NASDAQ or the S&P 500. US markets did really, really well during that period of time, much
better than the international markets. The dollar was relatively strong and gold didn't go anywhere,
silver didn't go anywhere. So I didn't really make much on my mining stocks. All of that changed in 2024, where 2024 was a good year,
and then 2025 was a phenomenal year, and then so is this. So now, the last three years,
it's huge outperformance, which now, if you go back over the last five years, it's big outperformance.
And even my gold strategies are beating the S&P by a long shot going back 10 years.
So it's really starting to swing back around my way for investment returns.
But as far as global macro, as far as what I was forecasting about the U.S. economy,
I think I've been spot on.
I think I've been spot on.
I think I've been correct the entire time.
I think I've been correct the entire time.
I think all the problems that I was warning about
are only now beginning to manifest themselves
in a way that's making the market move in line
with my market forecasts.
But we're headed for a very massive US crisis.
I think, I don't know if we're weeks away, months away,
maybe we have another year or two,
but I think the bottom is gonna drop out of the dollar. I think the dollar index is going to
plunge. I think that's going to accelerate the outperformance of everything outside the US,
but it's going to send US consumer prices soaring. It's going to send long-term interest rates
soaring, and it's really going to wreak havoc on the real estate market, on the stock market, bond market. I mean,
we have a real day of reckoning coming as we have to finally deal with the problems that have been
building up for 20 years. And I've been writing about it. I've been warning about it. And we just
kept making everything worse. We just kept letting the problems get bigger. And in fact, all the policies that we pursued made all the problems worse, including the policies that we're pursuing right now under Trump. All of the problems are getting worse, but they're about to blow up, I think.
Peter, I have a question for you.
Small cap sniper here.
Great to be on a space with you because I've actually been thinking about this lately.
So I'm wondering what your response would be to people who claim that the dollar would actually strengthen through ongoing Fed cuts,
actually strengthen with through ongoing fed cuts specifically on the idea that you know lower
policy rates are going to pull mortgage rates down which are currently like around six percent on the
30-year fixed and kind of just like unlock the demand for uh you know refinancing and just
reignite like the whole housing sector velocity drive a little bit of consumer spending,
and draw some foreign capital flow into the US and real estate, which would increase net demand for
dollar. No, I think it's the reverse. First of all, we already have too much consumer spending.
Consumers need to save. They've already spent too much. We have record credit card debt,
record student loans. We have a lot card debt, record student loans. We have
a lot of mortgage debt, auto loans. People have very little savings. So we should be saving more.
But if we cut interest rates, we're just going to lessen the appeal of the dollar.
Rates around the world are actually rising. To the extent that we start cutting, it's going to
widen that differential. But inflation is really starting to pick up,
at least the way it's showing up in prices. Look at oil. We have a lot of money invested in oil
stocks. And I added a lot to my own positions in oil stocks months ago. And these things are
jamming now. They just keep hitting new 52-week highs. Oil is about 20% off its low. So I think oil prices are about to head a lot higher,
and they're going to follow industrial metals like copper or nickel or zinc and the precious
metals. I mean, and I also look at my agricultural investments are really hitting new highs. So
I think across the board, we're going to see increases in commodity prices, and those rate
cuts are just going to fuel the move into commodity prices.
So that's not going to help the housing market. We're going to put upward pressure on mortgage
rates. I think the only way that they're going to get mortgage rates to come down short run is if
the government comes in and buys up those mortgages. They're going to have to step off
the QE program, and they've already started that. I're going to have to step off the QE program.
And they've already started that. I mean, Trump already started that through the GSEs,
which I think is a mistake. And in fact, Trump even acknowledged the dilemma that he has.
Housing is unaffordable because prices are too high. Home prices are much too high because
houses are priced for mortgage rates
that no longer exist. For a while, when the Fed had raised at zero, people were able to get
mortgage rates in the threes or fours. And homes got priced based on how cheap that money was.
Well, rates are not nearly that low anymore. And so that means real estate prices have to come down
to where people can actually afford to buy them.
But the president doesn't want to solve the affordability problem with real estate prices coming down, which is the market solution, because that would mean that Americans would lose their home equity.
Many of them might then just default on their mortgages.
You'd have lots of losses for the lenders because the real estate would no longer be worth the mortgage that they gave. And so Trump's main goal is to keep home prices
from falling. In fact, he said he wants them to keep rising. Well, they're already overpriced.
The only way you're going to get prices to rise or stop them from falling is with massive inflation.
And that's their plan. Their
plan is just to create a lot of inflation to keep overpriced real estate from coming down.
But that's horrible economic policy. I mean, the good policy is let real estate prices fall
to levels that are consistent with the market. But that might cause a financial crisis,
but that's what happens when you blow up a bubble.
The Fed never should have lowered interest rates to zero.
It never should have left them there as long as it did.
But since it made all those mistakes,
we've got to deal with the consequences, right?
Like if you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.
We never should have had that policy
because now we've created a real estate bubble and we don't want to let it deflate. But we cause even more problems
by trying to blow more air into it. And the president's solution is, well, let's try to make
mortgage rates lower. Let's have lower lending standards. Let's let people take money out of
their 401ks and overpay for houses. But that is the worst possible way to approach this.
And all that is gonna be negative for the dollar.
I mean, the world is already running away
from the dollar right now.
And we gave them a lot more reasons to do that.
Trump, with the tariffs and threatening to invade Greenland
and all this stuff, the world is moving away from the US.
And that's obvious.
And you can see trade is increasing
outside the United States.
China, for example, is doing a lot more business now
with countries other than the United States.
So a lot fewer Chinese exports are going to the US.
They're trading more with other countries.
They're going to be trading more with Canada and with South America.
I mean, they're going to just start moving away from the US market,
which I never thought was a good market anyway, because we're broke.
We can't afford to buy their products.
They have to lend us the money to buy their stuff.
And that's not a good trading relationship.
You want to trade with countries that have stuff that you need.
You just don't want to lend the money.
You want to export to countries who make products that you want to import.
Gotcha.
And then to kind of just piggyback off of what you said. Do you mind just kind of clarifying why you believe that Bitcoin wouldn't benefit the same way that you're seeing the precious metals benefit from the dollar?
I don't think Bitcoin has anything in common with precious metals.
It's a very different asset.
And I question the value of the asset. I don't know what the real purpose of it as a currency for payments, remittances.
I mean, there are lots of other cryptos.
If that's what you want, if you're looking for a way to, you know, conduct commerce or move money around, there are a lot of other tokens that you can use.
There are stable coins.
Did he cut out for anyone else?
Yeah, yeah, he cut out. Just as he was getting started.
It shows he's still a listener,abi if you want to um give him another
request yeah i think uh yeah yeah i'll send him uh another invite to speak yeah apparently spaces
are also like kicking people out i i see a few uh messages from the um from like the little
purple chat box and people are asking i just want to can i just
say while you guys can hear me that that goal goal has i'm 67 years old i've never used gold
for anything no one's ever offered me gold for anything ever never not in 67 years
has somebody said would you take gold okay now somebody said it's going to take 20 years for Bitcoin to get to the same value of
Bitcoin. Bitcoin will get the same value as gold. Okay. Well, if that happens, guess what?
You have a new product that did what one product took 5,000 years to do. If it happened in 20 years
or 30 years, what the fuck, dude? It's a 5,000-year run in 20 years.
Hello.
And by the way, gold has spent decades going sideways.
Yeah, well, gold went sideways from 2011 to 2024.
That was 13 years.
Right, and that was after going from under 300 to 1900.
So it had a big run, it consolidated.
But what's changing now for gold
is that gold is being re-monetized by central banks.
The world is going off the dollar standard
and back on the gold standard.
Not so much that currencies are going to be redeemable in gold,
although you will have cryptocurrencies that are redeemable in gold.
I think there's going to be a lot of tokenized gold products.
Peter, why are we going to go back to something that worked a couple thousand years ago
rather than forward to technology?
No, no.
Gold has always worked.
Works for what?
What does it work for? I mean, based on what you're saying, we're going to go back to seashells at some point. What we have. Worked for what? What does it work for?
I mean, it works as money.
We're going to go back to seashells at some point.
No, no.
Gold has worked as money for hundreds of years.
It worked great as money.
We had the most prosperous period in American history, the most rapid economic growth we've ever had.
What are you referring to?
Yeah, from about the end of the Civil War to the beginning of the First World War.
Okay, what was happening?
What was happening was we didn't have a middle class.
Yes, we did.
We built, we created the middle class.
That's what I'm saying.
A middle class was being created.
We were building houses.
We were building industry factories.
That's why it worked.
Yes, no, it happened with a gold standard.
Sound money helps us facilitate that.
Let's fast forward 100 years, Peter.
And now we're going to move into the 21st century.
We're going to move into the year 2030.
You know, we will have robots.
So, yes.
What's wrong?
But how is that inconsistent with sound money?
All I'm saying, Peter, is we won't go back to horses and farming.
Okay?
We're probably going to stick with grocery stores and food delivered.
There's a more likely chance that cars will fly than not fly.
What does that have to do with gold?
Gold works as money with flying cars.
Because it's just hard for me to believe that money will not advance as well.
Well, I don't think there's any... We haven't developed anything yet that's better than gold as money.
And so nothing else that we've tried works.
Fiat currency has been a disaster.
You know, we would have a much higher standard of living right now had we stayed on a gold standard instead of moving to a fiat standard.
And I think the world would be much better off
had it not accepted the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. But they're now rejecting that. And
central banks are moving away from dollar reserves towards gold reserves. And I think that's a major
step in the right direction. And I think that's going to result in an economic boom outside the
United States, because I believe the world has paid a heavy burden to subsidize the
U.S. economy. I mean, Americans are very expensive. But Peter, Peter, we have also are,
and I'm going to let these, there's hands up, but we have also, you know,
been responsible for most other economies, China, India's economy, doing well and expanding and
growing because we're a consumer base.
No, but no, you got it backwards.
You got the cart before the horse.
It's because they produce that we're able to consume.
No, no, it's because we purchase.
Look, they can produce all they want.
If we don't buy it, nothing happens.
No, no, it still gets made even if we don't buy it.
If it gets made and it doesn't get sold, fucking nothing happened, Peter.
All right, that's like, so do you have kids?
Peter, I have two kids and they're both fine.
All right, right.
You have two kids.
Now, because your kids spend your money, is that why you make your money?
My kids don't spend my money.
See, I don't have it backwards.
You do.
My kids don't spend my money.
They spend their money.
All right, Peter.
Peter, hang on a second then you
have older kids i have i have a 14 year old i have younger girls that are educated right okay i have
younger kids but how old are your kids the young ones are nine and 12 okay well my kids had already
had six years each of work the point i'm making is without me earning the money, they can't spend it. They
can't spend it until I earn it. We can't consume unless it's produced. What does that have to do
with China producing rubber ducks? If the rubber ducks aren't bought, money's not made.
No, anything. Okay. There's an economic truism called supply creates its own demand, right?
Demand doesn't exist without supply,
right? Countries are poor, not because they lack demand. Demand is infinite by definition.
Countries are poor because they don't have supply. If you can produce it, you can consume it. That's
the rule. Now, if you can't produce it, well, then you're in trouble. China doesn't need us. They can consume everything
they produce. They don't need us. We need them. We need the factories. We need the workers. We need
all of the things, all of the resources and capital that go into producing those goods.
All we have is a printing press. Cranking money off of a printing press doesn't do anything.
And we're about to find that out because what's going to happen is the dollar is going to crash. The Chinese RMB is going to go
way up. All of a sudden, the Chinese economy is going to dwarf the US economy. The average per
capita income in China is going to skyrocket as the US income collapses. And now all these people
in China can afford to buy everything they produce, right?
Because they can now pay a lot more for everything than Americans, right?
What the Chinese have been doing is transferring their personal power to us.
Peter, you could over talk everybody here for 45 minutes without stopping or taking a breath.
The reality is there's a lot of things about the China economy you're leaving out of the conversation.
Okay, you got three hands up.
You got three people with hands up.
Grant, well, I kind of just wanted to, you know, Peter, I hear what you were saying.
And I think they're amazing points and they're 100% true.
I think that what Grant was kind of of saying not saying what grant was saying without
saying it but it sounds like you know when he was tying in previous civilizations etc like
we're clearly as humanity we're going into the digital world right like the the real world
is digitizing and it cannot keep up like the real world can't, like it can't keep up with the digital world.
And tokenizing gold is a part of that.
We can have digital gold
as long as it's based in real gold.
Look, just because we're going
into the digital economy,
it doesn't mean we eat digital food.
You know, we don't live in digital houses.
There are some things that we still need, right?
And one of them is money.
We need real money.
We could real money.
We could represent money digitally.
We could represent ownership of gold digitally.
I can transfer my gold ownership to you,
you know, digitally through a blockchain
or however else I want to do it.
All that is fine.
But that does not mean that we're going to adopt
a decentralized Ponzi scheme and pretend that that's money
because that's all Bitcoin is, right? And so it's not going to work. I mean,
it's going backwards. It's not a step forward. Bitcoin is a massive step backwards just into
Ponzi finance. How would you confirm like gold custody though? I think that that's, and look, I think that we're going to have, um, like gold and silver
are not going away.
Like these are like, if I'm a financial advisor, I have an allocation for gold and silver,
no matter what happens.
But how do you like, it's very easy to audit gold.
You have an independent company that comes into your vault.
They send an auditor in and they look at every bar.
All the bars are numbered from the refiners.
And so they just count up the bars.
How long does that take, Peter?
Let's say I got $10 million of gold sitting in my vault.
Everybody has their own vault.
I got $10 million worth of gold.
How long does it take to get it validated?
That won't take long at all because that's not that much gold to validate. I mean,
they can do that in a couple hours. They can look at all that gold. But look, this is done
all the time. There are third-party audits. So now how secure am I now, Peter?
How secure am I now that people know that I have my vault and my measly $10 million of gold?
Well, I mean, if you're talking about your own vault, nobody has to know that it belongs to you.
You can have it audited independently if you're just talking about your own gold that you're storing with somebody.
But if you're talking about like people own gold in these ETFs, these ETFs get
audited, right? They have to have their gold. An independent auditor comes in and makes sure
that the gold that they claim to have is actually there. You know, look, you know,
you take a company like Brinks. Brinks has been storing gold for 160 years. It's one of the
biggest gold storage companies. Nobody has lost an ounce of gold with Brinks in 160 years. It's one of the biggest gold storage companies. Nobody has lost an ounce of gold
with Brinks in 160 years. Why has the Fort Knox audit been so difficult?
Well, you're talking about the US government. That's got nothing to do with the free market.
Now, why is the US government not allowing an audit of Fort Knox? That's obviously very suspicious.
It's possible that we don't have the gold that we claim
to have, and that's why we're not allowing any auditors to come in there. Is it possible that
we have more gold than we claim we have? I think that's very unlikely. I think it's far more likely
that we have a lot less. I think if anyone has more gold than they're letting on, it's China.
China probably has a lot more gold than they're telling us, and we might have a lot less.
I feel as if the confirmation of custody with gold and Bitcoin is just...
It's a completely different story, right? Because on one hand, you have the Bitcoin network,
which is decentralized with infinite third-party validation, right? Like it's, it's, it's there.
I mean, and not to get all conspiracy and think, think crazy outside the box, but like
how much money can, can you pay like a, like an independent auditor to just use BS?
Yeah. I accept audits that I accept the fact that it's very easy to verify without a third-party auditor that Bitcoin is
there. I mean, yes, that's one of the beauties of the whole blockchain system is that it's
verifiable and you don't need an auditor. I get all that. The problem is that the underlying
asset doesn't have any value. And the price, as you see, look, Bitcoin is down now about 50% from where it was a few months ago.
Very big move in a very short period of time.
It could easily go down another 50% in a few months.
And now your Bitcoin is down from, you know, 67,000 down to 30,000, 40,000.
Then it could go to 10.
I mean, it could go a lot lower than that.
But Peter, what gives anything value in the world? It's whatever somebody's willing to pay for.
No, that's what gives something a price. That's not what gives it its value. I mean,
you have two separate concepts. And Grant probably knows this from real estate. I mean,
he can look at a piece of property and know its value. And if it's underpriced, he'll say, hey, I'm going to buy
this piece of real estate because it's worth a lot more than what it's selling for, right? He could
separate the market price because maybe there's some inefficiencies. Maybe people don't appreciate
some value that he sees in a property that the market is overlooking. and so you could have a situation where price and value are are are very
different but over the long run it's going to even out over the long run price and value are
going to kind of intersect uh and so right now I don't think Bitcoin has much value but it has a
very high price and I think that is going to that that divergence is going to resolve itself over time, where the price of Bitcoin is going to collapse in line with its actual value.
What that actual value is, I have no idea.
I have no idea what Bitcoin might be worth if it's worth anything at all.
Do you agree it's not zero?
Well, I mean, it's probably not zero, but what if it's 100?
Well, I mean, it's probably not zero, but what if it's 100?
I mean, even if it's 1,000, even if it turns out that Bitcoin is worth 1,000,
and you're going to say, shit, I guess I was wrong because I thought it was worthless
when I first heard about it, and it's actually worth 1,000, right?
But if you bought it at 100,000, and it ends up at 1,000,
and you've lost 99% of your money, as far as you're concerned, it may as well be zero.
I mean, what's the difference
between losing 99% and losing 100%?
So, you know.
Go ahead, Jeff.
You're good, man.
I don't know.
I was going to talk about hood,
but I feel like we've been rambling about gold
for the last 40 minutes.
So I feel like my comments are now a little bit stale.
I don't know if it's even relevant
to go back to it at this point.
But Peter, I wanted to clarify,
are you bullish or are you bearish
on Robinhood long-term?
Well, look, I think it's an interesting platform.
And Vlad was down here in Dorado
and he talked to a lot of people here about the company. And look, you know, I do like the business model. I just think
that right now it's overpriced because I think that the earnings have been skewed
by an investment mania, not just in Bitcoin, but in tech in general and meme stocks and all this stuff. And a lot of it's fueled by
the cheap money. So I think that you're going to see a big decline in trading volume. And I think
the space is going to get more competitive. So the price could come way down. So it's just not the kind of stock right now
that is gonna pique my interest as an investor.
I'd want it to get a hell of a lot cheaper
before I'd even look at it.
Because meanwhile, there's so many companies
around the world that you could buy
that still traded relatively low price earnings
that pay very high dividends
and that are growing their earnings
and have good balance sheet. And they're not, you know, it's, so I just have no interest in a stock
like that. And a lot of small retail investors, a lot of own this stock. Look, you know, there's
going to be a lot of margin calls. There's a lot of people levered up, a lot of crypto people who may not just trade crypto through Robinhood, but
when they get blown out of their positions because they borrowed against their Bitcoin and Bitcoin's
30,000, 40,000, whatever, 20,000, and they just get blown out and they have to start selling stuff,
they might have to liquidate their Robinhood accounts. And then I don't know what
kind of litigation is coming. I mean, this country is very litigious. I know that from being in the
brokerage business for a long time. And when a lot of people lose money, they tend to sue their
broker. And, you know, whether it's the broker's fault or not, right, you know, you have all these
attorneys, they have a cottage industry of shaking down broker dealers through arbitrations when
people lose money. And I just think a lot of customers who lose money are going to end up
suing. So who the hell knows what their litigation expense is going to be down the line and how much
they're going to have to pay to settle all these claims? Fair. I would take a different side that
I think you might be overlooking. I mean, the litigation thing is one thing, right? I mean,
I could sue you guys for wasting the last 30 minutes of my time rambling
about gold and whatnot, which we've all heard for, I don't know, 500 hours if you've ever been on a
spaces, right? And you probably should, by the way, we should probably all sue Peter.
No, I'm not talking about just Peter specifically. I'm talking about I'm going to sue the whole
spaces, right? But I mean, that's just Peter specifically. I'm talking about I'm going to sue the whole spaces, right?
But, I mean, that's kind of irrelevant.
What I think is being overlooked is our prediction contracts
and prediction markets.
So just as a reference point, right, prediction markets outpaced Vegas
by 10x this year on the Super Bowl.
They did $1.3 billion versus $103 billion from Vegas.
Another stat that you want to consider, is that say that again so uh prediction markets received a 1.3 billion dollars
worth of wagers on the super bowl compared to vegas which had over 103 million dollars
prediction market does a whole outpacing 10X. So Robinhood is now partnered
with Calci, which contributed to, I want to say about 800 million of, I'm sorry, not 800 million.
I forget the exact number, so don't quote me, but it was the biggest part of that sports book
handle for the Super Bowl. The second thing too, is that you have to factor in how much market share Robinhood is going to now grab from DraftKings, FanDuel, and the other major sportsbooks.
And I'm saying that, and it's going to be highly profitable.
So today, I believe DraftKings generates about 80% of their total revenue off of parlays.
Prediction markets are now just starting to add those parlays,
which happen to be the most profitable bet for the sports books. Once those become more available,
once prop bets and all of these other things become more available through prediction markets,
that market share is going to then shift over to Robinhood. Robinhood is also going to be able to leverage crypto in order to pay for those prediction markets and for those
prediction contracts. That's going to fuel them and begin a flywheel. The other thing you need to
factor in is Polymarket is built on the Ethereum network. Every time Polymarket is used, Ethereum
is going to get pumped up. Polymarket is the biggest prediction market out there today.
So Robinhood, well, yes, it is going to run harder in a bull
market and the market isn't great right now. And a lot of the reason why Robinhood is suffering is
because of crypto. But with the ability to now, I mean, Robinhood is going to generate most of the
square bets, right? Your professional bettors are going to line shop and are going to go to the best
sports, well, going to go to the, or going to place their wager where, with a sports book who's
offering the best line at the time. But that's not majority of bettors. You're talking about 98%
of bettors who are going to have some sort of loyalty to their sports book. If it makes it
easier for them to keep cash in one account and not have to transfer it
all over the place, Robinhood is going to continue to eat up that market share. I want to say what
DraftKings did about seven, $8 billion last year. FanDuel probably around the same mark, maybe
a half a billion dollars less. You're talking about a potential $15 billion now flowing in
through Robinhood because of ease of use, because of the
ability to leverage crypto through tokenized contracts and prediction markets. And prediction
markets continues to eat up the lion's share of sports betting. So I think that, yes, while the
market is causing Robinhood to suffer today, I think you're going to see a flywheel when you can
start using prediction markets. You can start leveraging parlays through prediction markets bet on props and leverage your crypto assets to place those wagers
which again is going to further fuel that fire yeah well just look i mean obviously there's a
lot going on and i i have some online gaming companies that i've owned for years and years
and years but um either as the space gets more competitive,
as more people come into it, it competes down some of the margins. And then I know that regulators
are now really starting to look into these platforms. And I would imagine that in the US,
a lot of states are going to come in and try to prevent gambling from going on.
I mean, they kind of like to have their own monopoly with their lotteries, and they don't like all this gambling being done in their states.
But prediction markets are regulated through the FTC.
It's a different market.
This is the federal trade conditions.
Right, but I think you're going to look at individual states saying, hey, wait a minute.
We have regulations over what's done within our state.
But this is a way to bypass those state regulations. So today, if a state is prohibited
from sports gambling, you can leverage Robinhood to go through prediction markets because it's
regulated through the Federal Trade Commission. It's not state. It has overrule over that.
Yeah. But, you know, and a lot of these gamblers are going to lose a lot of money.
And so they're not going to necessarily be lucrative customers in the future, especially
if they have a lot of their money in crypto. They're just going to have a lot less to gamble
with. And, you know, as the economy weakens, as inflation can stop. But you say that, but the
sports betting is growing, what, like 4X year over year for the past, I don't know, 10 years. And they still haven't even captured all the illegal gambling that's eventually going to get cracked down on even further.
And that's going to fuel more sports gambling as it's also becoming more publicly acceptable to do it.
Well, we'll see.
I mean, yeah.
I mean, I have some investments in some of those companies.
Not Robinhood, but, you know.
Yeah, I just think and i
agree i think robin hood's price uh short-term price action may suffer but long term i think
the value of prediction markets is being grossly underestimated and how much more revenue that can
generate and drive to them and how that can help to prop up crypto which is currently a big stressor for them. Yeah.
All right, guys.
Anyway, I got to bow out.
Thanks for letting me participate in your space.
I got to, I'm doing my own podcast in an hour.
So I got to rest up and I'm doing a radio interview on the West Coast in about a half hour or two.
So I got, I got a couple of things that I got to do tonight.
Peter, could I ask you a quick question before you go?
Yeah.
How much do you know about alchemy?
I know that there have been alchemists around for centuries thinking that they could make
gold out of something, and they've never been able to do it.
Well, that's the assumption, right?
If someone did figure out how to do it, would they actually let you know?
The fact is we have matter replicators.
We have systems by which these metals can be replicated.
Unfortunately, not saying that gold is invaluable,
but these systems do exist and not everyone knows about it.
But that's a discussion for another time.
I know you have to go on.
I don't think we have a conversation with you on that. Yeah, I don't think that we have the
capability of doing that. I mean, I know we can replicate diamonds now, but diamonds are very
different than gold. I mean, diamonds were made in the earth, whereas the gold that's here,
we haven't had any gold made since the Big Bang. I mean, all the gold that's here, we haven't had any gold made since the Big Bang.
I mean, all the gold that's here
came from the beginning of the universe
and there's no more.
I mean, it's just about finding it.
And I did hear, read a story about somebody
that was able to create in some kind of,
whatever the device was,
a particle accelerator, was able to create
like a microscopic speck of gold.
And it was like maybe if we had 100 million years,
we could make an ounce.
So there was like some way to kind of recreate
the big bang or something to try to get some gold.
But if we ever get to the point
where we can just create gold out of nothing,
then we probably can create anything out of nothing. We're probably going to live in a world
where we don't even need any money. If everybody can have everything they want for free,
if we could just rearrange the molecules in the air to create anything that we need,
the molecules in the air to create anything that we need.
And so we eliminated scarcity
and everything exists in infinite supply.
Yeah, that'd be fantastic.
We would, nobody would need money
because everybody would have everything for free.
But I think we're still a long way away
from that type of utopia.
And I think if you're worried,
if you're thinking about maybe we'll be able to figure out
how to create gold, it's much easier
probably for somebody to crack Bitcoin or to figure out how to counterfeit a Bitcoin or
crack into everybody's wallet. It seems like that system is a lot more vulnerable. Not that I'm
saying it's likely to happen, but I think it's more likely than somebody being able to create gold.
somebody being able to create gold. But in the meantime, we don't have to create it. We could
get it. We have gold in the earth that we haven't mined. And that's one of the reasons I have a lot
of money invested in mining companies, because it's going to be a booming industry for many,
many years now, because the world needs a lot of gold and we don't have it and we got to start digging it out
of the ground.
And the gold companies are making money hand over fist
right now.
They're probably the most profitable companies.
They're more profitable than these AI companies.
The margins are enormous when you're mining gold for $1,500,
$1,600 and it's 5,100.
But it's not going to stop at 5,100.
It's going a lot higher than that.
And the cost of mining is going to go up too,
but not nearly the way the price of gold is going to go up.
And the same thing with other precious metals.
And so it's going to be a great place to invest.
All right.
All right, guys. Hey, take care uh good luck with the rest of this space
thanks for coming on man it's great to hear you and for those interested i did put it in the chat
uh uh the stat reference that i made to uh prediction markets doing 10x over Vegas. And it was Kalashie who did about $864 million of that $1.3 billion,
Kalashie being the partner that allows Robinhood to bring prediction markets,
offer prediction markets on the application.
Hey, Shogun, what's up, man?
I've seen you requesting quite a bit.
What's going on bro
you Shogun are you there hey what's going on
oh no I was calling on on Shogun but he's not answering but you can go man what's going on
yeah what's going on guys this is Stephen Nakella chairman of the Libertarian National
Committee uh big fan of Peter Schiff um yeah i mean you know bitcoin i've been in bitcoin since 2014
and uh you know i think one of the most important things to realize about any currency whether it's
bitcoin gold silver etc is the trajectory of the dollar is going down no matter what it's the same
trajectory of every fiat currency that's ever
existed. If you print money, if you inflate the currency supply, it's going to go up in value. Now,
you know, Bitcoin in particular, it's always been a roller coaster. What is the real value
of Bitcoin as a currency? Is it a store value? Is it something that you use? You know, it's to
be determined. But I think from more of a macroeconomic view, when you consider the rise of bricks in the
east versus the decoupling in the west and even the European Union and people in Europe,
institutions in Europe, private investors are trying to get away from the dollar, you
know, you're going to see an increase in the value of all these assets, just like we saw
in Argentina with the collapse of its currency up until
recently, Javier Millet, the first libertarian head of state, you know, of course, has been
doing a great job trying to battle inflation there simply by printing no money.
But we're $40 trillion in debt in the United States.
We're at a point where the only way out for Congress is to increase the money supply year over year.
And right now we're paying about 8% on the national debt.
That's just the debt service alone.
Trump has gotten somebody from Blackwater who was very dovish on interest rates.
So it'll be very interesting to see if he just listens to Trump and lowers interest rates
as the potential next Fed chair to be confirmed by Congress.
But the way that we're heading there is no way out i mean the dollar as a national as a as a world reserve currency is dying and uh you know we're only seeing the the effects of that
year over year i'm in the restaurant business i've had to increase my prices every single year
um i own 13 restaurant units across three different states. Our costs have gone up.
That's from a supplier perspective. We've had to pass it on to the consumer. And that's just the
case everywhere in the country. So no matter what, when you see the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones,
you know, go up year over year, that's a product of inflation. That doesn't mean that the valuation
of those stocks is truly increasing.
It's the value of the dollar is decreasing.
So whether it's gold, silver, I'm personally bullish on cryptocurrency.
I think everybody should have a diversified portfolio.
But Xi Jinping just recently said he wants to see the yuan as the world reserve currency, which is unsurprising. They want to play the dollar's role and be able to
basically inflate the currency and export the debt, which would allow them to do what we did
with our economy in the post-Bretton Woods world of just inflating the currency carte blanche
without much of consequence. The only reason the federal government can continue to increase
the debt at the rate it has is because of the dollar reserve status and because they hold the money for us. choose their own currencies through the free market. There's only one morbid roll call that
has consumed every currency, fiat currency since creation, and that has been devaluation,
hyperinflation, default. They'll add more zeros to the back of the dollar bill. They got rid of
the penny. The nickel is next. And soon, with the rise of central bank digital currencies,
and personally, I'm very suspicious of Tether because I think it's a quasi central bank digital currency.
You know, we are going to have more of an assault on our privacy.
We're going to have more of an assault on our ability to transact.
And it's not a good road to go down.
So the only way to maintain your personal sovereignty is to own some gold old
hold some silver uh hold some crypto monero these privacy coins i think are are undervalued
personally and uh and just see what happens over the next few years because there's there's nothing
stopping you know what's going on the only man in congress who's voted no against the big bloated
budget is thomas massey and what is the Trump administration, the Republican Party doing?
They're trying to primary him in his election.
And I don't think they'll be successful, which is a huge blow to the Israeli lobby.
It's a huge blow to those who wish to see people like Thomas Massey fail,
who's a libertarian-leading congressman, our best congressman, in my opinion.
And yeah, I mean, you know, it's not a rosy picture.
And unless we take back the government
and unless we find ways to create our own currencies,
essentially, we're going to see more of the same.
So I think on an infinite timeline,
as Zero Edge says, everything turns to zero.
And that's exactly what we're going to see with the U.S. dollar.
Hey, Prometheus, are you there?
Prometheus.
Yeah, can you hear me?
Yeah, I was going to say, dude, if the dollar goes to zero, dude, then Big Hagrid's not going to be able to buy his triple-decker pulled pork sandwiches from Joe's.
Yeah, with the onion rings and the provolone.
Dude, that is the—if anyone—look, we're not sponsored by Joe's Barbecue in Kansas City, but it is probably the best barbecue spot ever.
I wouldn't say the same about Arthur Bryant's.
That's probably the worst place I've ever seen.
Are you sure?
Arthur Bryant's is like the worst barbecue place I have ever eaten at, man.
It's pretty overrated.
It's disgusting, man.
Next time you come in, you got to try some Q39, brother.
Dude, the fact that they have a photo of a Barack Obama on their wall
is just signal enough to never walk in there.
Anyways, Shogun, are you there, man?
He dropped.
I see Dan Volzerian in the audience.
What's up, Dan?
Feel free to come up.
I'm going to send you an invite to speak.
Would love to know your thoughts on the market, man. If you've been buying any Bitcoin here or
any stocks. Sullivan, I see you as well, sending you an invite to speak. There are actually a lot
of you that are requesting, but I'm just terrified on bringing most of you up.
Yeah, I'm just – some of you guys just post some very weird stuff.
I'm not sure what you're going to say if I bring you up here.
But Benjamin Pearson, what's up, man?
Big Ben, what's up? I didn't realize you had brought me up.
I actually had my hand raised for quite a while.
I wanted to ask Peter Schiff if he had an opinion on copper specifically or any type of forecast on that.
That's something that I'm kind of interested in at this time. I think it's still kind of early.
But I do appreciate you bringing me up. But yeah, that was the question I had.
Maybe one of the other speakers on the stage might take a stab at it.
Butcher, you can answer that, man, if you want.
I'll send you a link, but the short answer is it's going up.
And that's due to the AI infrastructure build out.
And copper is a key component of these data centers.
So I agree with you.
That's an opportunity.
One other thought I had, which actually poses well for, I know a gentleman that I do research
with unrelated to it that is from Argentina and thinks South America might be an interesting opportunity long term given as we see precious metals emerge for semiconductors and data centers.
That's an interesting opportunity that I'm personally not well versed in enough yet, he's bullish on gold mining stocks and is admitting that they're going to increase the supply of gold in circulation.
Now, I guess he would argue that it is slower than the rate of fiat creation, but it's like he understands Bitcoin.
He knows the finite supply, yet he just can't
cross over the chasm. So that was just what I wanted to add. Thank you.
Yeah, thanks a lot for that, for answering that for me. I also heard that copper may
be a substitute for silver in some industries.
It will for the majority. I can help answer some of the questions in this point.
Yeah, I mean, copper is 97% of the conductivity as silver does. So as copper prices have obviously
gone exponential, you're going to see it start to be substituted in for a lot of these, you know,
electrification needs with AI, yada, yada, yada.
And most importantly, too, what I think a lot of people aren't recognizing and what Trump did allude to,
I think it was about a month ago, an oppressor was the lockdown of the hemispheres, right?
What do I mean by that is the United States clearly having or wanting to have larger
influence specifically in South America, obviously with what we do with Venezuela, but that also in
turn is going to affect copper. So what does that mean? That essentially means that what we're
trying to do is we're trying to localize the copper mines within Chile. China will probably get the big mine in Indonesia.
Copper mines, too, take a tremendously long time to become operational, upwards of 10 to 15 years.
And if you look, if you're forward looking, and if you look at kind of the mines that are trying
to go online as of right now, it's not nearly enough, or I should say the supply in which we'll be, you know,
inserted into the pipeline that we, on top of what we currently have, will not nearly meet
the exponential growth kind of across the board that we're seeing from copper consumption. And,
you know, AI data centers, the demand is, you know, exponential. The need for copper within those is even more
exponential. And the electrification of the world, right? Every single thing in which we
operate with in one way or the other has some electrical component within it, right? It is
integrated into society in an extremely fundamental piece of society.
And if we look to, right, if we look to just from a technical perspective, the chart looks
amazing, right?
And if you're a chartist, whether a chartist or you're not a chartist, if you just look
at the chart itself, you can clearly see just through price, right? Demand is increasing. And there does come a time too,
where just as what happens with gold, just as what happens with silver is the ore quality
becomes, goes down and down and down and down. What does that mean? It means we have to,
we have to essentially have to output more energy to retain less than what we have gotten
previously, whether that was 5, 10, 20 years ago, right?
And that's becoming more and more and more of a factor.
Why do you think Greenland plays such a large role in Trump's current
hemispherical lockdown perspective?
It's because Greenland is one of the largest natural resources
for precious metals, for minerals, for gems across the board, right? And that's kind of the last
untapped land as we know it for a lot of these, you know, minerals, but to get a mine operational in Greenland takes a tremendous
amount of investment and is extremely capital intensive. And if we look to, if you look at
some of the mines across the world, like some of the larger mines, like in Indonesia, that makes up
a large portion of the global copper supply annually, they had a significant landslide or mudslide that covered
a good portion of their pit, right? And so what that means is that they have to essentially go
back in, excavate all that garbage material out before they can even get back to mining copper.
And I posted on my feed some, like, it was kind of like kind of a long form content piece,
my feed, it was kind of a long form content piece, but I charted demand and consumption
versus one another. And if you look at demand versus supply, and if you look at the trajectory
of demand versus supply, very, very, very soon, the demand side is going to exacerbate this issue that we're
having across the world where if you think about it too, the recycling currently makes up 30%
of the overall or the new like, you know, copper implementation in electronics, technology,
yada, yada, yada, yada. But, you know, we're going to get to a point where you can't just go and
strip out all the copper wire out of every single building in the world, right? Or within the United
States or within at least the, you know, industrialized countries. And so more and more and more, the copper that we currently see
that is being implemented within infrastructure becomes plant infrastructure. And what do I mean
by that is there becomes less actual supply that can actually go into the recycling needs
for the demand side. So you have recycling that's
going to fall off a cliff, you have demand that's going exponential, and you have mines that are
currently very slow to get online and ore quality is degrading at a steep, steep, steep rate,
which leads you very simply to one direction, right? Copper price will be going up. And alongside to silver going
exponential price, nobody wants to put silver in any of their, you know, in any of their,
you know, you know, like technology, because it's so damn expensive, it removes all their margin,
right, or removes a chunk of their margin. And if you can get 90% of the conductivity
from copper versus silver, why would you not do it? Right. So it's kind of like a one way freight train for copper. Right. So you either see price go through the roof. Right. Or
you're going to see demand fall off a cliff. And I am not going to bet that demand falls off a cliff.
Man, that was very insightful. I really appreciate it. And definitely please share that link. And I
thank you as well, Jeff, for your response. And thank you for the space to the host and the co-host, man.
Butcher, is there anything else you wanted to say, man, or Jeff?
Jeff let's dig back into prediction markets and how that impacts how people invest I thought you
wanted to lean into that a little more but you seem to have a view on that no I mean I pretty
much covered everything I wanted I just think uh it's being grossly overlooked I mean there's a
reason why DraftKings and FanDuel are going to start offering prediction markets I believe
DraftKings is now starting to dabble in that.
As Robinhood builds out their prediction markets business, which is going to include parlaying, being able to bet on smaller stuff like props, I think it's just going to further fuel their fire.
I think it's going to help fill the gap where crypto is kind of hurting them today.
fill the gap where crypto is kind of hurting them today.
And them being able to leverage tokenized prediction contracts,
I think are going to, like I said, kind of create that flywheel
that's going to uplift crypto, their crypto side of the business.
Being able to pay for these prediction contracts in crypto
rather than dollars is going to help.
And I think a lot of the same clientele that are square bettors, which is 98% of the market, is going to leverage Robinhood
over DraftKings for the simple fact that they'd open up a margin account. And I'm not saying that
this is ethical, but they could open up a margin account and use the margin to gamble on prediction markets, right? How healthy is that long-term? Who knows, right? Could that be the
litigation that Peter Schiff was talking about potentially? But I think a lot of the litigation
that he may be worried about has already been played out, right? DraftKings, FanDuel, them being
early market entrance, first to market, they've already dealt with a lot of the litigation that's going to come and it's already been sorted out. So they're going to be
limited into how they can be taken to court, right? You can't take Robinhood to court because
you bought a stock that then went belly up, right? You're not going to win that. I mean,
you could try, but I don't think that's going to be a successful endeavor for you.
So I just think prediction markets, Calci is Robinhood's partner for that.
And I think it's just a fraction of what they can generate.
I mean, they stand to lose nothing with it.
They're taking 2% off the top, essentially, on any parlay that's made.
There's no risk involved for them.
I just think it's an extremely attractive side of the business that is going to continue to grow
at exponential rates for them and pay dividends, especially during times like these when
the market's a little bit more bearish. Robinhood is obviously going to run hardest
during a bull market. So I think this is going to help offset some of those losses.
By football season next year,
the prediction market side of the business should be fully built out.
And look, you're not talking about chump change, right?
I think, like I said,
DraftKings is generating about $8 billion a year,
80% of that coming from parlays.
So there's a big chunk of the pie to be taken
factor in FanDuel, all the other smaller books
I don't think
it is a coincidence that they did 10x
what Vegas did on the Super Bowl
that's just the
sports side of it too
think about all the other things, politics
with the elections coming up, people are going to be wanting to bet on
midterms, on world events, on things of that nature as well.
I just think it's super attractive. And then the other side to it, right? Polymarket is the largest
prediction market vehicle today. That's built on Ethereum with their own coin. I believe it's,
don't quote me, it's like Polygon or some shit. I don't know.
But it's level two Ethereum, right? So the more money that's wagered on Polymarket,
the better it's going to be for Ethereum. It's going to help drive Ethereum prices higher.
Sorry, you might hear some crazy noise in the background. My dogs are wrestling. But yeah, that's pretty much what I wanted to say on it. I was just curious if, because I'm very bullish on Robinhood.
Could it go down short term a little bit?
Yeah, I think it could.
Like I said, crypto is still suffering.
The prediction market side of the business isn't humongous today.
I think there is geopolitical issues that are affecting the stock market as well.
There's just a lot of headwinds that are impacting them
that I think are keeping them from running.
But when things do stabilize, and I think they will,
look, I think the sky's the limit for Robinhood.
I think it could be a $500 billion plus company eventually,
especially with gambling continuing to increase
and all the other sides of their business clicking.
If crypto catches fire, I mean, there's just, they have a ton of catalysts ahead for them, in my opinion.
I would be a buyer here, not financial advice.
Could it go a little like I said, could it go a little bit lower in the short term?
Sure. But I think long term, if you're on a long time horizon, I think you're going to do very well on that trade.
going to do very well on that trade. See, what I wasn't appreciating what I learned tonight from
you, Jeff, is how they're taking action from Vegas. And you already saw travel and tourism
down in Vegas. I'd have to double check on that. But my mind goes to stocks like MGM,
when your legacy casinos that operate primarily brick and mortar, even though MGM's trying with their gaming app
and spending a lot of money on endorsements.
But I think as we transition from a physical world
to a digital world, which is happening every day,
I agree with you that Robinhood's done an effective job
of incorporating.
They're just embracing all of the right tech trends
and seem to be making money at the
same time which and i think of meta in the same way how many times zuckerberg's been able to
reinvent himself and isn't willing or i should say is willing to fail in the name of progress so
thanks for bringing that up yeah the one little small thing too that i think uh is i don't know
how big of an impact this will be right but? But the 2% of gamblers, which are sharp bettors, some of them are prohibited from gambling in Vegas,
right? Books like DraftKings, a lot of people don't realize, but when you start winning a lot
of money and when you get flagged as a sharp bettor, you get severely handicapped. And for
somebody who's trying to make a living off that many betting, you know, 30, 40, 50 million dollars a year and upwards.
Right. This provides them a means where I don't believe Robinhood is going to be able to to stop them from gambling.
So I think eventually you will start to see some sharp bettors coming over to these prediction markets as it's a means for them to bet large sums of money and not get capped in the process if they start doing well.
It's already happening.
I mean, you're already seeing that.
And two, I just want to clarify.
Who's speaking just out of curiosity
because it just shows everybody else is a listener.
Sorry, Prometheus.
Prometheus.
I'm one of the, I got the BB tag.
Yeah, I see you.
Just for some reason,
your show as a listener on my end, I just wasn't sure who is, who is, uh,
responding. Yeah, you're good. Um, yeah, it's just the $50 billion platform, you know,
unable to fix their UI, but, uh, no, I just want to clarify volume and, uh, attention done on
Polymarket is not, is, does not have a direct reflection in Ethereum price. I do want
to clarify that. Ethereum does an extremely poor job of capturing whether it's revenue,
whether it's attention, whatever that may be from their layer twos and and so volume
done on polymarket on polygon which is a layer two on ethereum does will not directly reflect
now is that today because they're doing a poor job and could that change in the near future
should it could absolutely it absolutely could um they did vital, who is the head guy for the Ethereum Foundation, CompleteSoy.
He came out, I think it was two weeks ago, and said that they're starting to get away from the Layer 2 model, which is very good for Ethereum.
Now, if you see people directly transacting on Ethereum, that does and will directly affect ETH's underlying price.
But when people are doing anything on the layer twos on ETH, Ethereum captures almost nothing.
So I appreciate you clarifying that. Though the two things I will say is that Polymarket does
accept Ethereum as a currency for their wagers.
So that does help a little bit to my argument.
But the second thing I'll point out is that you did mention that it could change, right?
Should significant amounts of money being wagered on Polygon's network to the point where it can't be ignored, right?
There is a mechanism for them to start recognizing that and help to help the underlying currency being Ethereum. Right. And to your point, like from a volume
perspective, like who's going to benefit from the, uh, from the prediction markets, the most,
in my opinion, will, will be like a ride, right? They will be able to better, um, they'll be able
to better, um, capture, uh, you know, the revenues they'll be able to better um capture uh you know the revenues they'll be able to be able
to you know capture that within their share price much much much better uh from an appreciation
standpoint than ethereum will in the current regime if that changes then you you know you can
always adjust i'm gonna i'm gonna call it here man like i i will never take a position on anything that Sandeep has created or has invested in, man.
Matic was a trade in 2021.
Shout out to Ian Bellina, who called that out, like, before they even did their ICO in 2019.
I think they did it through their Bin buy finance IEO their initial exchange offering but
polymarket is now mainstream and the polygon token there's no need for it yeah there's really
no need for it and I hope polymarket could actually like actually become its own thing it's kind of like
hyperliquid right hyperliquid now has its own oh no one it doesn't necessarily
need arbitrum it's because they're their own l1 now and I hope polymarket can
branch off of polygon because honestly that all l2s suck man let's be real
they only it's kind of a brain it's horrible dude it's horrific sandeep oh man i don't want to say
anything but like people involved in polygon like whatever man um it's not the same. It's like if Anatoly and Raj left Solano, it's like a different, it would be a different token, different protocol.
Interiorly, it'd just be different.
All you got is trash.
But anyways, I want to thank all the speakers.
I'm going to go ahead and wrap up here, guys.
We've been streaming for about four hours now so shout out to peter schiff for coming on the cardone brothers gary
and grant prometheus thanks for coming on bitcoin butcher welcome i think this is the first time i
had you on um shout out to evan as well for always joining me small cap sniper as well
matt c all the other speakers thank you thank you thank you but this is your first time tuning in ladies and gentlemen my name is Wabi I'm the host
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So that being said, thank you once again to all the speakers,
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Shout out to all of you guys.
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And God bless you all.
Thank you, thank you all thank you thank you thank you and we'll see you
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