Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you I'm going to go. Oh Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Just break your back Hi, here we are. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky.
Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Welcome to the Sky. Oh, yeah. I did ruin what I do because Blame the world that blame your maker
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I need one of the skies. It's like this. Oh, yeah. Okay. music Thank you. Music Oh I don't want the skies! The sky is the sky! The sky is the sky!
The sky is the sky! The sky is the sky! Yeah. I'm not leaving. you yo what's going on guys welcome welcome hope you're all doing okay happy wednesday happy
thursday wherever you are in the world welcome back to market talk brought to you by bb my name
is wabi and we're having a great day in the markets today. Hyperliquid making new year-to-date highs. We also have plenty of assets within the stock market. The AI data centers are doing quite well today. I'm sure AI guy loves that. We have Nibius having an insane day, really.
I think Nibius has made some fresh local highs here after it was range-bound for a minute.
Iron's also up like 10% today.
I actually like the name Nibius or Nibius it's pronounced Nubius Nubius okay okay Nubius all right so
hood is it really because it's because if you buy it you're a new absolutely I don't know man I don't know but the AI stuff is probably gonna make
some new highs micron looks like it wants to go into price discovery I said
SanDisk is probably gonna make new highs also and NVIDIA is not really doing much
so I'm guessing it's just gonna be kind of the same thing that we saw in December when we were range bound in crypto, where we just have a select few beta names doing well.
Consumer staples are performing like ass.
We're not really doing much.
S&P and Q's basically flat.
So, I mean, there's still some opportunity honestly and um
i think if we see hyper liquid above 40 it probably goes into price discovery i'm not even gonna
sugarcoat it it's probably like the only all coin worth trading as far as the high caps go it's now
top top 15 but if you exclude stables, it's like top 12,
and it's not really that far off from flipping crap like Cardano and Tron.
That's a name that we've been discussing here on the show
And the proof is in the pudding.
We try to make these shows not only entertaining but also some alpha
some alpha we do like to talk about some alpha actually like to talk markets on the show we like
we like to banter and all that stuff but we do like to um to provide some alpha and growing your
capital theses and all that stuff whether it's the long side some people like doing more
downside which which is fine in this environment there is a lot of there there have been a lot of
good short opportunities especially uh in the altcoin space and uh in stocks like palantir
months ago i think evan caught a nice uh short on palantir months and months ago. That's pretty much all I've really looked at in the markets today.
There's not really much going on on chain, probably just like a select few micro caps, which I'm not really going to talk about.
But BTC actually has been coiling up at range highs despite all this geopolitical tension.
There are talks of a Trump taco, which I think it's going to happen.
Usually when you have the RSI hit where it landed on the weekly on Bitcoin.
The RSI hit where it landed on the weekly on Bitcoin.
And right now, if we look at the last time we had that volatility event to the downside, it was on February 5th.
The last time we hit RSI that low on the weekly was right when 3AC went bust.
And it took the market almost five months for us to make lower lows.
And it essentially took FTX, which was, I think it was like the third largest exchange in the market at the time.
And we barely made a lower low.
It was a lower low of like 15 17 percent if that um so you'd have to ask like what would take
us lower right and it's probably trad fi every year there's always some kind of pullback by 10
to 15 but then your thing is like where does that where does that uh drawdown start in crypto so when ftx happened i think btc was trading
at around 22k 21 right around there but um nonetheless this has been a great environment
to play some trades here and there um, things like could for the long term.
But not much has really happened outside of that, guys.
I still think a short squeeze to $78,000, $80,000 is still on the table.
And there's still that possibility that the S&P and the Qs can make that one more gap up a marginal all-time high,
perhaps $7,200, $7,300 on SPX, perhaps a double top on the Qs.
And then we'll see from there.
And as always in crypto, there's always going to be a bull market somewhere.
And for me, I've assessed that hype is that asset um in 2022
there were barely any opportunities on chain or on all coins it was a relatively dead market after uh
btc topped out at 48k there wasn't anything to do if you weren't in nfts and after luna went to
zero you weren't able to do anything in the market um until those few weeks the summer of 2022 and
then the market was effectively dead um until mid-december when chat gpt went live and you had all those ai coins going ballistic for months and months
but uh either way guys welcome back to market talk for those of you that are live here in the
audience welcome same thing for those of you that are listening to the recording uh i got ai guy
got knock up here i'm sure we're gonna have some of our um our other speakers join in during the
second half of the space guys but before we officially get rolling and yap about markets
so you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space you guys already know what to do
click the spaces tab once you guys do that right above the profile pictures you'll see that link
x.com slash i slash spaces hit the like hit the retweet button guys
Does a number of things helps bring more people into the show and all that good stuff
What's up, bro? How are you?
Thanks. Yeah, I actually think Bitcoin is genuinely
Back up the truck man. It's genuinely going zero. I'm not i'm not gonna do it. I'm not gonna i'm not gonna
I'm not gonna do it this time. I'm not gonna i'm not gonna mislead people bitcoin is genuinely going to zero
It is genuinely fucked. This is the rug zone. You are in the rug zone
I've been saying this for the past month or so
We're probably not going to get any downside
until mid-march well you know according to my phone the date today is march the 11th
it is like you know literally the last stop before rugtopia right this is all going to rug
people who are saying this is going to 100k i think i just saw samson mail post that
they they are literally leading you to the slaughter this is going to rug this is it it
is a bear market rally we've had you know like a what about six weeks now of of sort of chopping
around and a few chances for people to sell their bags at a little bit less of a discount and it's nearly over i think so just
let that be the message the rug is probably coming it's probably coming within the next two weeks
so what is there to do in rugtopia man unironically buy i actually unironically think you can buy the next capitulation like the next leg down
you can buy that and that'll be a decent buy i mean it probably there there are no investable
altcoins outside of hyper liquid no i mean i mean bitcoin i mean you can buy bitcoin on the next
no one's gonna buy bitcoin bro i can promise you like people are going to buy all coins the only person that's
actually buying Bitcoin in size is Michael Saylor I bet the the flows there are insanely weak
the only narrative we have right now is this strc crap and everyone that I see on the timeline
saying like I'm gonna buy some cheap s, I think they're all lying, dude.
I really think most people are lying,
and they're just going to buy these beta names.
They're going to buy the data centers.
They're not buying sats, bro.
Most people, bro, they say that they're buying cheap sats like you can you can try most people bro they say that they're buying these
they're buying cheap sats so they can have like this niche following of angry people that live
and die bitcoin bro everyone everyone everyone is buying micro strategy like dude how the fuck
can you call yourself like a quote-unquote bitcoiner
which is honestly like the corniest name you can call yourself i'm a bitcoiner right it's the
corniest name you can call yourself um and how do you spend more time talking more about Michael Saylor than just BTC price action, dude.
So that's why I kind of have this hunch, like,
all right, if everyone's buying these cheap sats,
then why the fuck are we pinned at 70k?
And we never move unless Saylor goes on Coinbase.
Bitcoin is big enough that it doesn't matter what ct does right ct can't
right it's macro you know we've reached the peak of the liquidity cycle and we're starting to fall
like there is probably going to be as you said a dump in trad fi and it's probably going to take
crypto with it and you know all coins like it depends what you're buying.
I mean, you know, generally, generally buying altcoins in a bear market has been a way to wreck yourself.
It's a very, very bad risk reward calculation to buy altcoins.
Even if you're buying the bottom, it's generally bad to buy altcoins because number one, you don't know
if it's the bottom. And number two, altcoins, you know, they have probably about a 90% probability
of basically being like a one cycle wonder, right? So they did well this cycle. That's it.
Good night. You're never going to see that altcoin again you know like who's who's
talking about who's talking about atom right like who's buying atom where where are the atom balls
this cycle right where where are the fucking um oh my god what was what was some of the all tell ones
from the 2018 cycle like what was that what was? Neo that's right. Where are the fucking neo bulls right? Neo was like Chinese ethereum, you know, it's nowhere, dude
It's gone. It's like it's dead, you know
That was actually a good coin man. It had everything going for it like yeah
Everything it had everything the fundamentals dude it had everything going for it
right except the price and that is the story of every altcoin in its second cycle it has everything
going for it except price and you don't want to buy that okay so you know the altcoins you want to buy
for the 2030 cycle they don't exist yet right bitcoin probably does make a new high in the 2030 cycle, they don't exist yet, right? Bitcoin probably does make a new high in the 2030
cycle. It might not, but it probably does. You can probably buy Bitcoin. And even if it doesn't
make a new high, even if Bitcoin does like a double top or lower high, you'll still make money
on it, right? As long as you do actually sell, right? so you know i think i think maybe the next leg down
if we end up in the forces you can buy bitcoin right if you're at like 41k you know by by like
41k by may you can you can buy bitcoin um altcoins i'd be very careful of ethereum oh man ethereum is such a dog it is an absolute dog um but i actually do want to buy
ethereum um but i want it cheap like i want it to want ethereum under 500 to be honest if it's under 500
it's trading at like value right it's under 500 ethereum has been dehyped and you know, Tom Lee is probably
like retiring and going to become like a, you know, like a fucking watercolor artist or something,
right? He'll just, he'll just be like, it's completely over. I'm down 90%, you know? So
like, I think under 500 it's dehyped, it's de-risked. It's like you're buying.
It is a clean expression of the original Ethereum thesis at those prices.
If you are buying at 2,000 or 3,000 or 4,000 or 5,000,
you are making a macro trade, right?
The macro trade is basically liquidity will keep increasing,
everything will keep pumping,
and Ethereum is beta, so it'll keep pumping with everything but I don't
think that's going to happen
that would take hype to like
I mean I don't know about hype
you know hype has been very quote-unquote hyped
This cycle and you've got to be very I remember how everyone was hyping
Fucking uni swap and what was the other one that you could do perps on?
Um that had its own chain in the end. What was that one?
Oh god, um I I God I don't know, man
There was a really famous
There was a really famous
The sun shone out of the castle
Hyperliquid has had more volume and active users than Coinbase and all these other retail platforms.
And I don't know if you know this, but you're able to trade commodities 24-7 and stocks.
And the volume is actually quite impressive and they've made more
money in net rev than dydx or uniswap ever has in their first year after tge
the problem is all of this shit gets hyped up when it's new and it's now like
There's only it's only like me flood. Yeah
The only thing I see on my timeline about all coins is hype
It's literally hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype and the thing is I think back to last cycle
I'm like but the ydX wasn't even the only one.
There was another one on Arbitrum, wasn't there, that everyone was, was like really, really excited about.
I have no idea, but Hype is more than just a Perp Dex.
I'm sure they said it about that one as well.
I'm sure they said it about that one as well.
The blueberries, the fucking
dingleberries. They call them the blueberries. The blueberries, the fucking dingleberries.
They were coming on the show
and they were saying how they were making
a strategic investment into GMX
and they were going to be
locked for eight years and it was
going to be the next Wall Street.
When was the last time you heard GMX?
Presumably not recently because you
couldn't really remember the name and neither could i um gone vamoose right this this is the
problem right will will hype be around in 2030 maybe right but you know i mean i'm not gonna bet
on it um i mean maybe if it got really cheap and you want to do a sort of
solana play you're like hype is going to be this cycle solana it's super hyped everyone's excited
about it and then something bad happens and it gets super wrecked and you can buy it cheap okay
maybe um that's a trade but know, it's still a risky trade.
AI guy, what's up, bro? How are you doing?
What are you seeing in the market?
I'm seeing a bunch of green guacamole candles in my portfolio.
So, you know, Nakamoto tends to be pretty bearish, but I do agree with some of the stuff he has to say. Long term, I'm bullish on Bitcoin, right? Long term,
meaning 10 years. But like most people are not going to hold Bitcoin for 10 years. And I agree with you that a lot of people are LARPing, just like always in crypto, right? They don't own Bitcoin,
they don't self-custody. They're not stacking sats, they're, you know, they're stacking like,
you know, Bitcoin per share treasury companies, right? Or Bitcoin mining stocks or data centers, which are unrelated to Bitcoin.
But, you know, people always chase hype, right?
But that doesn't always mean that hype is, you know, bad, right?
There could be hype that's actually generating real value for shareholders.
real value for shareholders. It's quite, you know, rare in the Bitcoin crypto equity,
or just crypto in general, as, you know, most shit coins have gone to zero.
Many of the Bitcoin equity company stocks haven't done that well, right? But I'm feeling good. Like, you know, I'm a full time investor.
My time horizon is, you know, forever, right? Like, I want to stack forever assets.
Bitcoin is a forever asset. And, you know, I like owning great companies, great stocks,
great equities. And I think, you know, Ethereum could be a great
opportunity as well. But this year might be more chop, right? I don't know if we go down to
a, you know, a 30, 40, 50k Bitcoin. But we could be stuck in the 60 to 70 whatever range for the next nine months.
And that's going to hurt a lot of people.
Because they're going to buy, you know, these people are buying call options on, you know, some of these crypto Bitcoin equities like BM&R, MSTR, you know, all the other ones. Right? And that might those trades that may not play out.
But I think if you truly believe in the thesis, right, for some of these equities,
and you're able to hold, I think it could be a really good return as early as two to three years, right?
But going into it, I think you got to take a five to 10 year outlook, right?
And it might play out a lot earlier than that,
especially if you believe this is the bear market, right?
And I do think this is the bear market for crypto, right?
Which is an opportunity, right? If you're well positioned,
if you have other, you know, if you have income, you have other assets that are not unrelated to
crypto to use to accumulate the assets you want at a low price, like Nakamoto is suggesting, right?
One of the trades I'm looking at, and it might not hit,
it's a lower probability because you brought up data centers,
so allow me to show a little bit.
I'm looking at IRON, right?
It's like $40-something right now, $0.42. It0.41.98. I think this could be a 3-4x this year at least off the back of AI growth
and earnings growth and just stronger guidance. This could be a company that makes $20 billion a year in revenue over the next,
within three years. It's going to be a massive player in AI. I think that could be a big move this year. But also, unlike most of the LARPs on Twitter, I'm actually
in a position to accumulate more Bitcoin, real Bitcoin. But also, I'm a degen. I like to take
risks and hopefully accumulate more Bitcoin and other great assets,
I'm looking at MSTR. I hope it stays low in this range between $104 to $120-ish.
20-ish, right? If I can nail, you know, iron hitting that 110 to 160 stock price, right,
you know, and accumulate MSTR at a low price, I think that's a generational opportunity,
right? So I'm looking at at if I can get you know iron
Sorry, I already have a huge position iron, but if I can
Basically, I'm looking for a flipping right like you know not and that's the Bitcoin Ethereum flipping but the iron
MSTR flipping in stock price where you know we could see a
130 or iron and we could see a $130 iron and we could see MSTR at $120, $130, right? I think buying MSTR at
that price, six to nine months from today, and you could strategically trim iron, I think iron is still susceptible
to a 50% correction, just like any other growth stock, right? That's like a 10X within five years.
But that's one of the trades I'm looking at to get exposure to amplified Bitcoin, right? But
you know, I bought Bitcoin yesterday too right so
it's not that I'm waiting for this MS to our trade to play out I'm accumulating
Bitcoin right and I'm very focused and on this AI thesis playing out and the
fundamentals keep improving right Oracle just had or what what what do you mean
this AI thesis can because I mean obviously AI is a big thing yeah exactly specifically the AI data centers
growth right the AI data center market as a as a market segment is growing about
80% per year hey hey I got it let me ask you a question man why would I buy ETH
over Palantir I I don't know.
If AI is going to be up and to the right, like, I kid you not,
I really don't think there's a reason to even buy ETH
when I could buy Palantir, when I could just...
I mean, Sandisk looks like...
I mean, at least short-term kind of topped as far as exuberant gains.
Most of the initial move is gone.
Even though it could go to like, I don't know, 750, close to 800,
it could still pull off an NVIDIA and be up like 300% in a year.
And I certainly don't think ETH is going anywhere near 8,000 anytime soon.
And if it does, then Palantir is worth a trillion.
I can't give you a recommendation.
Generally, I don't give financial advice,
but I don't follow Palantir, right?
When I buy a stock, I watch it very closely.
I know everything about it, right?
I look at the team. I look at how it trades for years, right? Like, I look at the earnings, I look at the team, I look at how it trades for
years, right? And then I size in, like, I can't just casually, like, observe a thousand stocks.
I know Palantir is a great company, it's performed very well, but I'm just not an expert on the price
action. I don't even know, you know, quite honestly,
what Palantir does. I see the memes, right? Like, you know, when it comes to war, people are like,
hey, I see, you know, the bad guys are going to find out why Palantir trades at such a high
multiple, right? Like, I think those memes are interesting, right? Palantir versus Ethereum,
I would rather buy Ethereum because I i've seen ethereum since it's
since it was uh you know since the ico right like i i've seen it right uh i know ethereum has been
a dog shit hold uh in an entire joke but crypto in its entirety has been a joke, right? So I think one of the things that has made me successful as an investor is I look for pain, right?
I look for opportunities where people are saying that, hey, this whatever asset is going to go down 90%, right?
Like, I don't think in will go down to 500 like
Takamoto's suggesting but if it does well not why not but if it does hang on
you know I agree it'd be a great buy right but I don't have my conviction in
a theorem is not as strong as the AI thesis playing out.
Right. And I wouldn't even be focused on Ethereum.
Yeah. I mean, if it goes down, buy it.
Right. Like the game, the entire game here is sizing your bets.
Right. If you want to take a 1% position in Ethereum, you're not going to talk about it.
Right. No one's saying to ape in Ethereum, which is also another sign that it could be, you know, interesting
to make a contrarian bet. I think Ethereum is a contrarian bet. So it should be sized
like a contrarian position. If it 10x's over the next three, five years, great. Right. But if it doesn't,
you'll be fine. Right. That's the end of the conversation. Right. I mean, the market
cap for Ethereum is similar to where Bitcoin was at its bottom in December 22. Right. And
I think the development in the crypto and in the crypto industry have, you know, grown a lot over the past, you know, three, four years.
So making a, you know, a small bet on Ethereum or even Ethereum equities could be a great way to play it, right?
But, you know, it's not something to be too excited about, right?
Because you're not going to...
I wouldn't go all in on Ethereum right now, right?
I would be very focused on, you know, on the most transformative technology today that is still misunderstood.
And that technology is not crypto.
And how I would position myself, how I'm positioning myself is, you know, I'm backing the AI champions
that everyone's going to understand are champions
And I'm going to use the...
What exactly are the AI champions that you're backing?
How are you trading this?
Well, I mentioned the data center plays.
I think that they can be 1020x opportunities
what are those data center plays
specifically? Well I mentioned Iron
I think Iron is the leader
today but Nebius was mentioned
don't like the investors in
very pretentious on Twitter but
I think Nebius could be a decent
opportunity. Some of the former Bitcoin miners like Cypher, Hut, Wolf, those are some really good
opportunities. There's like a dozen of them, right, that are former Bitcoin miners pivoting into AI. And then
there's the traditional, you know, neoclouds, which are the IRN, the Nebius, or Nubius,
as I like to call it, and CoreWeave. And then, of course, there's the dominant hypperscalers that everyone knows about, which are, you know, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, right?
And, you know, all meta, right?
Like, those are the bigger players. to the cloud business or at the data center level,
the AI data center equities or the NeoClouds
or the NVIDIA cloud partners,
those are the ones forecasting 500% growth,
100% growth in a year, right?
So those are like the altcoins.
What kind of multiples are they trading at at the moment?
I think like, so I think I was like four or five price to book.
Don't quote me on that, but, you know,
which multiple are you saying price to sales or price to book?
I mean, I was thinking, yeah, price, you know, which multiple are you saying price to sales or price to book? I mean, I was thinking, yeah, price, price, you know, price to sales,
that kind of thing, the traditional multiples that we use for tech companies.
Let me give you a number to you, right?
So what makes these companies special,
well, one of the things that makes some of these companies special
is they secured a lot of power, right?
Iron in particular has 4.5 gigawatts of secured power, right?
And using a cloud model, I'm getting a little technical here, but they can basically make
$10 million per megawatt on their power. And if you have 4.5 gigawatts, you have 4,500 megawatts. So if you
do the math, you could theoretically see that IRON can someday, if they can raise the capital,
If they can raise the capital, if they nail the business model, there's a path to $45 billion in revenue per year.
What's their current market cap?
$13 billion or so. you know, at a 40, you know, let's say a 40 billion, you know, per year revenue, like that,
what is the multiple on that? At least five, right? It's a $200 billion market cap at a low
multiple. That's what? Do the math on that. It's 20x or so. But you don't need to wait for that.
I think a lot of that move is going to happen within three years, right?
I mean, sure, if you hold on to it 5, 10 years, you might get a 20x.
But I think, you know, the stock is still misunderstood.
People are still calling it a Bitcoin miner.
And you can see a 3, 4x is here, right?
And within three years, you can see, you four x's here right and within three years you could see
uh you know uh five ten x so yeah i mean i'd have to look into it sounds like an interesting thesis
i've seen it shilled a lot so i'm a little bit wary of it people to show it so uh yeah well
i'm not i'm not saying i'm not saying that that you were late it. I'm just saying I have seen it shilled by a lot of people.
I mean, I generally don't trade equities, but I do know people who do,
and I kind of help them out, so something to consider.
I think AI is here to stay.
I don't think it's going anywhere.
I think it's just going to keep getting more and
more capable. Um, and it's basically going to eat the whole economy. Um, but you know,
that doesn't necessarily mean that any one particular company is going to do well.
Right. I mean, if you look at the, the, the.com bubble, you know, if you bought the things that
were hot at the top of the.-com bubble on some of those things
You're still actually holding a loss, right? Some of the like Cisco stuff like that
I think it's actually still down from its dot-com peak. So you have to be careful. Yeah, we're saying
You know AI is AI is like super hot. It's it's just gonna it's gonna take over the world
It's gonna take over everything
AI is if you if you break it down what it is is computing power like these were Bitcoin
miners they were mining Bitcoin right at a scale of billions of dollars per year
right you know the there's a demand we're having this conversation on Twitter
right like you and I have never been in the same physical room, but we've probably, like, I've probably talked to you, Nakamoto, uh, more than some of my, uh, you know, childhood
friends, uh, that I, my high school friends, right. Or some of my very close friends that I,
I had, you know, I had like 10 years ago, right. Just because I'm on Twitter a lot, right.
We're in a digital world,? We're in a digital world,
right? And in a digital world, people are going to use their phones more, people are going to be online more, people are going to be streaming Netflix, all of this, Waymo, self-driving cars,
you know, my car drives itself now, it's pretty cool. All of this stuff requires computing power,
right? So are we going to be more digital?
Are we going to spend more time online, right?
And if the demand for computing, forget about AI.
You could segment different types of compute into more energy- compute, high performance compute.
But there's different levels of compute, right?
But what you're really doing is you're taking energy, right?
And you're using some sort of computer, right?
And you're generating a token, right?
That token could be a Bitcoin, right? That token used to be Ethereum when it was proof of work. But in a more high performing setting where you need are very, very expensive, like $70,000 or something per unit,
it's fundamentally the same thing.
You're converting power into tokens, and you're going to choose the thing that makes you the most money.
If AI goes to zero, there's going to be another thing that keeps us all on the internet, that keeps us hooked to the algorithm,
that keeps us in communication with everyone on the earth 24-7, right? That's not going away,
right? Twitter spaces are still going to be happening in three years, right? There's going
to be more people that are going to be on the internet in three years. There still going to be happening in three years, right? There's going to be more people that are going to be on the internet in three years.
There's going to be more cars that drive themselves on the road in three years, right?
Like, it is not an AI question.
It is, is the digital revolution continuing and what's holding it back? There's many things
that are holding that back. And one of the things as part of this thesis is the physical
infrastructure layer. You need land, you need power. Yes, yes, I agree that in the dot-com bust, a lot of the companies were wiped out, and they overbuilt the fiber, and they all went to zero, and then the hyperscalers bought them out.
That might happen with some of these lower-tier data center operators, and they're not fungible.
Not all data centers are operated the same
way, right? Each management team is unique and different. Some are shit, right? Like some are
overpaid LARPs, just like people who lie on Twitter about their Bitcoin positions. There's some,
some shitty managers, right? Because when you buy a stock, you're, you're really trusting the
management team to deliver you profits and earnings or share price appreciation
right and not all management teams are deserve that trust right so it depends I
agree with you like there's a lot of risk involved there's a lot of execution
risks supply chain risk can can you get all the components and stuff you need to before you even break ground, right? Like what happens if, you know,
there's an angry mob, right, that storms the data centers because they're mad at their electricity
prices, right, in their region, right? There's always some thing that is scary, right? There's
no free lunch, right? But the risk to reward, in my opinion, looks pretty good, right? Like,
it looks better than Ethereum. It looks better than Bitcoin, right? Obviously, Bitcoin is a
one-of-one asset, it's decentralized.
There's no management team running Bitcoin.
It's completely a separate asset class than equities and any particular company.
But I'm positioning myself for this tidal wave that is AI.
Demand is going to continue to go up.
I know some people are like,
there's no way this guy has a girlfriend.
And she was using ChatGPT
Can I just ask, is your girlfriend a model
what do you mean i don't know is are you talking about ai models no it's a real human being like
she is a real person you know but uh exactly this is what i keep saying they're real people they're real people they're just like us
don't be a robot don't be silicon phobic i i'm proud of you
but uh she she was using chat gp chat gpt this is the same girl six months ago was uh was was
sharing memes and news to me via Instagram saying,
hey, data centers are going to boil all the oceans, right?
I've seen a complete shift in just this one individual that I spent all my time with.
She was saying, oh my God, ChatGPT is so cool. And she's editing pictures
and making memes and all this stuff. And just a few months ago, she was like, this is all a scam.
It uses 10, 20 times more power than a Google search. And now she's having fun with it, right?
So this is a very interesting thing that I'm seeing in real time.
I've been a Bitcoiner for 12 years. Another thing most people won't believe.
But in the 12 years. Dear God, man, we need to come up with another term that's not Bitcoiner, man.
Yeah. Let me pitch my thought. In the 12 years that I've held Bitcoin and have, you know, been conscious, right, like since then, I haven't seen people really transacting Bitcoin, right?
Like this is not a, you know, my first Bitcoin purchase, I used to buy marijuana.
Like, you know, like this is that that was my introduction to to Bitcoin.
And since 12 years, like there's been a handful of people that I've, you know, seen transact that I know personally right now.
I'm not talking about the blockchain. But the adoption for Bitcoin has been incredible over the past 12 years.
And you've seen the price go.
I've seen the price go from under $100 to, you know, over $100,000.
But, like, you know, you go to a mall, no one's talking about Bitcoin, right?
Like, you know, when I was talking about Bitcoin 10 years ago
to my close friends, it was like, whatever, right? Like, it was not a serious, I wasn't even
taking it seriously. But we're, you know, I get the same reaction today, 12, 13 years later,
as I did 12, 13 years ago, right? Like, people still don't give a fuck right uh you know they may have
heard about it because the price went to a hundred thousand dollars right uh but it is not
in your face 24 7 it's not on tv 24 7 it's not on the radio no one's losing their job because
yeah i mean i mean like iron iron is like i've probably seen about 20 or 30 different iron
adverts that all over the podcast space like you know they're all over twitter it's just like i do
feel like this is probably a trade that may have already played out like iron is up iron is up 7000% Since 2020
Bitcoin podcast is now advertising
Damn bro we should be sponsored by Iron bro
We actually talk markets on
this show yeah i mean peter talk about mstr and other stupid shit yeah i mean peter peter mccormick
has this quite popular bitcoin a podcast here in the uk and every five minutes in his show it's like
now let me tell you about iron iron is this amazing new ai cloud and it's going to like
be the second coming of jesus and it's like you look at the
chart and it's up 70x okay i mean like it's a nice trade i wish i had done that trade um but it's
a little bit hard to allocate to here i mean maybe maybe if it kind of allocated you know
it is actually pretty low it was an 80 stock 76 or something76 or something In Last year, Q4
And it fell down to like $34
Yeah, but it was like a dollar
Yeah, that's when I started accumulating
So like, you know, yeah, somebody got
A $74 on that Yeah, yeah, I was wondering But I'm telling you, like, you know, yeah, somebody got a 74X on that stock.
But I'm telling you, 10X, 20X again.
But you don't need to buy what I'm showing.
I'm saying pay attention to AI data centers, right?
I mean, the thing with the AI data center thing,
you don't need to sell AI to me.
The problem is it's all about timing.
It's all about are you buying
before everyone else has bought or are you buying after everyone else has bought and they're going
to dump on you because if you're buying something that's gone up 7 000 they're probably going to
dump on you right it doesn't mentality right like you know i come from the same place you come from
believe it or not nakamoto right like i've in the trenches, in the crypto trenches for a very long time.
But I'm telling you the market for AI,
this is a trillion dollar company in the making, right?
Like, you know, this is not your $50 million
shitcoin market cap rug pull, right?
Like there is real institutions
that are owning this, accumulating this.
Wall Street, you can see their analyst reports.
There's, you know, analyst ratings anywhere from $39 to $120 something dollars, right?
You could do your due diligence, right?
But this is not going to zero, right?
Like, this is not, you know, this is not a meme coin that I'm shilling, right? This is not you know this is not a a meme coin that i'm showing right this is this is
uh i mean i don't i don't think it's going to zero i'm just saying it's already pulled a 70x
it could just crab for a decade and it would still be great returns right if you buy something and
it goes up 70x and then it's flat for a decade on an annualized basis that's incredible right but like not if you
buy after it's already pumped 70x right but you're you're just focusing on the price and you just
focus on the value yeah well you know it's kind of like it's kind of like neo right like at the
beginning we were saying what the amazing fundamentals that neo had it was chinese area like for for the token holders
well yeah it made money for the token holders yeah because they fucking dumped it right
like neo went from neo neo has outperformed uh eath the ant shares was like three cents and neo went to 200 bucks man um and it hit a market cap of 20
bill like this was not just like you know your average shitter that tops out at three to five
bill this thing was huge um and i mean look at avalanche right avalanche went to like 40 bill and it just but it was tied god it's
right like this was not tied to any physical asset in in the reality that has
hyperman hyperliquid isn't isn't isn't really tied to just crypto because you can trade equities and
all that stuff 24 7. someone commented saying quote unquote hype is just a
perp desk famous last fucking words. Well let me tell you something Bo. I said the same thing about
soul when it was trading in the teens saying how it's more than just an SBF coin and so many people
listening were like ah dude soul's not going anywhere. Oh,
you should be called because soul. Oh, you're shilling soul. Oh, you're sponsored by soul.
And then look at what Solana did. Like, I think people have this weird misconception that I just
say stuff just to yap. Um, like I actually put my time and trying to develop a thesis here,
where there is most people people they just say the same
stupid crap like oh i'm just gonna dca into btc and eth because that's a politically good thing
to say no one wants to have a bold thesis on this app that's why it kind of sucks no one wants to
put their ass out there put their balls on the line give a thesis in front of hundreds of people
and thousands of listeners and actually be a man
and say, hey, if I'm wrong, then I at least did something.
But to just like throw shit out there, you know, famous last words, I'm sorry, man, but
the proof is in the pudding.
You saw what oil did last weekend, the weekend before that.
They went to hyperliquid.
Same thing with silver and gold.
What did people do during those weekends?
They went on hyperliquid.
What did people do on ETH on synthetics?
Cain dumped on everyone, bro.
That was the original thesis on ETH after the world computer shit didn't work out in 2015 2016 then the ICO shit didn't work out
and then DeFi was proven to just be something that works during QE and ZERP and in that case
everything goes up so if the original thesis on ETH which was the synthetic the synthetic
component right create synthetic assets on each real world assets
and all that stuff that's happening on hyperliquid brother the only real world asset that exists on
this planet is trading stuff and making money man that is a real world asset and that's just
happening now on hyperliquid um and we're in the business of making money and if that means that we're just going to talk about
the things that are making money in real time in a market that barely has any alpha then so be it
it's it's the only major that's up over 40 percent year to date but would I buy here right now? Absolutely not.
But we were discussing Hyperliquid mainly when it was at range lows in the 20s when Levinson was up here.
And I was begging him to buy, begging him to buy.
And I see Coca-Cola basically not doing anything now.
So there's really not much as far as like low beta at all
I'm watching Lily. You actually have high beta very innovative
Country company that is in a market that is growing just as fast as AI data centers
Which is the GLP the weight loss?
category sass's ai data centers which is the glp the weight loss category yeah but but we were talking about
hymns dude and hymns is up like an astronomical amount man it's up like over 50 percent prometheus
was talking about wabi if you like um the looks maxing stuff just buy hymns and and hims is up like 50 since then dude yeah so equities are clearly like
the uh what's the term that kids use logging stock picker equities are logging crypto
oh my gosh dude i actually have something that happened to me in the gym yesterday so check this
out i was doing viking presses and then after i I racked my weight and I was getting my gym bag, I got in front of somebody, but I didn't know.
And then he's like, he's like, whoa, hold on. And then like he grabbed my shoulders. I'm like, what the fuck? Because I had my earphones in.
I didn't know like someone like someone approached me, dude. And I'm I'm kind of like Itachi Uchiha or Toji Fushiguro.
to me dude and i'm i'm kind of like itachi uchiha or toji fushiguro like i have a sixth sense when
i know someone is approaching me or looking at me this is one of the only times in my life where
someone snuck up on me and then he's like whoa man like like relax dude you're you're frame
mogging me right now you're just mogging everyone right now. Because he said, whoa, because he touched my shoulders and my tricep.
And he's like, whoa, dude, you're mogging everyone.
And I'm like, thanks, man.
And then he was just talking about how I was mogging and stuff.
And that felt pretty good, man.
So, anyways. Yeah. man. It really did. Um, so anyways,
that you were saying something about my equities. Like if you're a stock investor,
you've mobbed, you know, crypto, right? Like you've outperformed Ethereum,
you've outperformed Bitcoin, right? Like simple, right? Like, right? I think it's a loser's game to be holding a losing position in size.
If you're all in on Ethereum for the past five years, you're a loser.
You've drastically underperformed the S&P.
You've underperformed the Nasdaq right Bitcoin I mean hasn't done much
right I mean over the past five years right if you didn't buy the bottom it
hasn't done much right but if you have other assets that are growing
exponentially like in the stock market if you played AI there's been you know
Nvidia there's you've mentioned
All these other companies have gone up 5, 10, 20x or more, 70x in Iron's case, whatever.
Very few people saw that, right?
I was one of the lucky ones, right?
But you don't want to go all in on some of these cryptos, right?
What you should do is own great assets that, you know, like stocks, right?
They're growing very quickly or open up a business that you're really good at that you can make a lot of money from and accumulate assets over time, right?
And that's the way to play it, right? Like, I'm in a position
to buy a lot of Bitcoin this year, next year, the year after that, if my thesis on AI plays out,
right? Like, you don't need to go 100% on Bitcoin today, right? If you don't know how to generate
income from it, right? You could, you could play various
growth segments. It doesn't have to be AI. It could be like you mentioned, the former companies,
right? If you find leaders, right? With, with strong management.
Yeah, but with, with, with these things, you have to be so careful though. Like you're talking about
buying GLPs. GLPs are not really a new thing now like people know about it right you're talking about buying ai ai is not a new
thing right people already know about it you want to be careful right when you're buying
buying stuff there's a difference between a uh an investment that's growing 500 a year and 20
a year right like you you know it depends on what you're looking for, right? If you're looking
you're not going to get rugged on Triple
Q. Worst case, it goes down 20 or 30%,
right? Like, that's the worst case.
you know, but the thing is, like,
if you're poor, you know, buying Triple Q's, like, you can put, like, $500 into Triple Q q's you know but the thing is like if you're poor you know buying triple q's
like you can put like 500 into triple q's you know it's not exactly gonna save you from from
the wage the wage cock prison right so i mean right because of what the audience is i mean like
right now you know the glp stuff and the ai stuff i mean as i said i don't invest in equities i don't have an
account for it i'm looking to get that set up at some point but like i probably wouldn't touch that
right now i'd probably be like i'm just gonna do something safe put some money in queues hold some
cash see what happens um you know because i don't really feel like i have alpha on either of those
maybe the data centers thing but now that i look at iron a bit, it's like,
it's up so much already. It's up 7,000%.
Like I don't really want to buy something that's up 7,000%.
They were like, it was, I could have bought a 3k just a few years ago.
Yeah. But that was after a huge bear market, right?
Like that was after it already really reset like a 90% or an 80% reset.
People were calling for 510k, 3k Bitcoin at 15k.
The only people who were calling for 5k were basically retarded, right?
Like even I wasn't calling for 5k, you know, I was like, it probably goes down to 14 or 15.
Um, I mean, like, you know, I mean, yeah, like in terms of equities right now, if you got in at $1 on iron and you've already taken some profits, great, hold it, you know, but like starting a new iron position right now, because I'm just thinking for myself, what, what new positions do I want to sort of start? I probably wouldn't start
a new position in anything AI related. Because it's just like AI is plastered everywhere 24-7,
all over the news, all over social media, all over everything. You've got to be a little bit
discerning about what you actually put your money into. Because otherwise, somebody's going to be up
1,000x or 10,000x and you're just going to be their exit liquidity um i mean like maybe you save some money up for when anthropic
uh does its ipo you know but that's going to be a very expensive ipo a trillion dollar valuation
it's going to be it's going to be like a 500 billion dollar valuation for the anthropic ipo i think
i'm probably like a trillion dollar for the opening i won now i think it's not crazy to buy
those and like in small size because you know it's kind of like upside insurance for the singularity
right you take 0.5 of your portfolio and you put it into you know a mixture of anthropic and open
ai and then if the singularity happens and everything goes like you know a mixture of anthropic and open ai and then if the singularity
happens and everything goes like you know a million x well here's the case you're good right
if you're gonna wait to be someone's exit liquidity like why wait for that ipo
buy at a 500 billion dollar market cap when you could you could buy because you can't buy it you
can't buy anthropic is not right in the in not for sale. In the $13 to $50 billion market cap,
that would become the next $200, $500 billion companies.
I don't think Iron is going to become a trillion-dollar company
because it's in a crowded sector.
It doesn't seem to have a moat.
You don't need to be there for that.
You're not looking for a 5 ten year investment regardless right i think you can make your money
in zero to three years right uh and that could be a a four to ten x right so
it could it could but if something's already up seven thousand percent are you really going to be
the one who says this is definitely going to go 70,000%?
Yes, and I'm holding it at very large size.
I'm telling you, when it was...
Everyone should be skeptical.
If you're up 7,000%, you probably shouldn't hold the whole thing for the 70,000%-er.
You should probably be like, thank you, dear Lord, for this 7,000 percenter. You should probably be like,
seven thousand percent gain.
I'm going to take profits.
I'm going to keep a moon bag.
that's a different strategy,
but the, the thesis is the fundamentals are only improving.
They're the company is just making more money and has,
is lowering their cost of capital and,
and they have a runway to to grow into a
powerhouse the thing is the thing is the thing is that's that's what it's like at the top right at
the top it's all sunshine and rainbows and everything's 50 percent correction that it is not
uh well yes we did we we did we did have a correction yes so i mean you know but like
what i'm saying like i'm sure things were all sunshine and rainbows when it was you know when
it was up 7 000 and it was like it's growing and it's fantastic and it's like ai jesus and everyone
you know like at 70 dollars everyone was boy well there you go i mean like in terms of investments
people could actually make right now,
I actually think it's just not a good time to make investments right now. I think it's a bad time. Everything's going to get wrecked. You know, yes, if you're already up 7,000%,
you know, the downside is probably not going to wipe you out.
Right. Maybe it goes down another 20%. Okay, whatever. But like in terms of liquidity,
at the moment, the liquidity
cycle seems to have topped. And we also
have this geopolitical stuff, which
it will start to have effects, just like
the Ukraine war did, in fact,
have effects into the world's management.
Are you trying to trade a...
horizon, I would say, you know, wait
6 to 12 months for the liquidity
cycle to bottom out maybe a bit more maybe 18 months bca that could be a wise thing just focus
on crypto crypto crypto is crypto is affected by liquidity cycles but so is everything else
iron is affected by liquidity right ai is affected by liquidity everything is affected by liquidity because you
know equities right so your your alpha is you believe that you're for me for me personally
for me for me personally i'm looking at setting up an equities account for myself to make some
investments so that i don't end up in the permanent underclass and i'm just thinking
what kind of investments would i personally want to make in equities and then also what kind of investments would i personally want to make in crypto um and
right now ethereum crypto equities like what like mstr right like when you're you know man i'm so i'm
so worried about that like i i really don't want to touch it at the moment. Like maybe,
maybe if that thing really, you know,
crashes out into the twenties or something,
I just feel like $20 a share.
I just feel like he's rerunning Luna.
He's rerunning Luna with,
stable coin yield and a risk asset.
And, you know, the unwind and a risk asset. And you know,
the unwind could be ugly if it happens.
even if it doesn't actually like fully unwind,
just being in that kind of Ponzi-fied,
like fake financial scheme in a shrinking liquidity environment is just like,
all of it's going to be bad.
Like it's all going to be bad.
Give me your Bitcoin price target for the absolute low within the next six to 12 months, because I know you're thinking we're going. It's going to be bad. Like it's all going to be bad. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect. The risk aspect.
Like that's a reasonable target.
I'll buy dozens of bitcoin.
I will. I will put in many millions of dollars at that price sure if you show me that I will I
will not even talk about yeah anymore if I if I can get Bitcoin 30k yeah yeah
well you know I mean if you if you do I think that would be a I would I would
advise you personally if I was advising you I would say you should buy at those prices.
Dude, you don't have to tell me twice.
Like, I will be buying a ton of Bitcoin if that happens.
But I don't think that's the case, right?
Like, I don't think we're even going to see 58K again, right?
again right but i do think we're going to chop for a long time uh long it's not actually going
But I do think we're going to chop for a long time.
to be that long for an investor but for you know for the crypto kids i think six months
nine months of chop is going to be excruciating especially if they are down 70 on their
investments from the last year or two yeah i mean like we could have that but i i think a
realistic target is 13 to 40k i think that is taking into account you know the various on-chain
cyclicals that kind of thing i think that's a reasonable count maybe you could say it goes lower
if there's an unusually bad economic situation, but I wouldn't bet on that.
Guys, I wanted to do, well, so a lot of good points there.
You know, when I look at, like, I look at everything, you know,
kind of against one another, like when I look at microstrategy versus IREN,
you know, things like that, it looks like microstrategy probably
would outperform that, at least, you know, this year I would, you know, kind of fathom, kind of, you know, interpret by that.
In terms of like, you know, if you're comparing, I mean, you're going to be nervous here about, you know, because history does rhyme.
So, I mean, you do have a point, you know, when I look at all this stuff, I mean, there are parallels.
I mean, it's not as ridiculous as Luna.
I mean, that was an obvious Ponzi from the get-go.
I mean, if you bought Luna, like, I mean, that was an obvious Ponzi from the get-go. I mean, if you
bought Luna, like, I mean, fundamentally terrible, obviously. This is not as bad, but there's obvious
concerns there. I think that the trick with microstrategy, like the strategy that I'm in for
it is, if you're going to bleed any more against Bitcoin, or if you're going to make a lower low and lose $100, like I would get the hell out of MicroStrategy and convert to Bitcoin or, you know,
S&P 500, depending on, you know, how things look at that point. That's kind of the strategy I'm
doing. Like I'm doing, I'm selling like cash secured puts on MicroStrategy and even BMNR
with like strike prices. Well, for BMNR is the more profitable one to do right now,
because it's obviously going to be riskier, but like strike prices around,, for BM&R is the more profitable one to do right now because it's obviously going to be riskier.
But like strike prices around, you know, like $17.
So if that $17 gets hit and you lose BM&R, I would just convert it to Bitcoin or something, get the hell out.
I'm just betting that you potentially could have bought it because I don't really want BM&R any lower than it's already been.
Like I think it's not like MicroStrategy is already down freaking 80%. Do I want it any lower than it's already been you know what i mean like i think it's not like microstrategy is already down freaking 80 do i want it any lower than that like that's that's not showing
the upward trajectory that i want if it does goes down the mnr is mnr is all in heat right
that's the tommy one yes yes yeah absolutely those are both those are the two most popular
like beat up treasury companies right now.
And they look attractive against things like IREN. MicroStrategy looks attractive against Palantir.
Like I think that this is where it could get interesting because I think that Palantir could come down quite a bit more, but MicroStrategy could have bottomed.
And this is similar to what happened in 2022. MicroStrategy bottomed in frickin May of 22.
what happened in 2022. MicroStrategy bottomed in freaking May of 22. You know, ETH bottomed out a
month later, but Bitcoin didn't even bottom until November of, you know, 2022. So, you know, that's
kind of my strategy. But the thing is, you got to really got to have an invalidation point. And my
invalidation point is essentially if MicroStrategy makes a lower low against Bitcoin, screw it,
I'm out. You know, if BMNR, same for BMNR, if that makes a lower low against Bitcoin, screw it, I'm out. You know, if BMNR, same for BMNR, if that makes a lower low
against Bitcoin, screw it, I'm out. And my strike prices, if they do get hit, I'll just immediately
sell. And I mean, you'll probably say, yeah, I'm sure there is a chance that like my strike price
on BMNR gets hit at $17 and it goes down to 10 bucks before I could sell. I think it's pretty
unlikely that that could happen. But yeah, if you're thinking like luna type you know situations which
i i don't think that's going to happen but i've been wrong before you know i've been i've been
optimistic before and you know i i didn't i wasn't dumb enough to lose money on luna but there's
other places i have you know gotten beat up on obviously i think we all have at some points but
that's the view i mean i don't i don't think i don't think microstrategy
can literally unwind in a day like luna did um that was obviously you know basically the best
bearish trade i've ever made because i was i was short that via a leverage token and that went like
30x or something i sold most of it too early but yeah the lunar the lunar short leverage token in that
collapse was was godlike um but i i don't think it can do that right like i think um
i think the risk with microstrategy is time-based as well as price-based so
if we get a quick bear market microstrategy is probably gonna be okay if we get a quick bear market, micro strategy is probably going to be okay. If we get a quick bear market and Ethereum recovers, then, you know,
the MNR is going to be okay and we'll do, you know, probably reasonably, but
like, especially, especially with the MNR, right?
Like there's, there's the possibility that like, let's say maybe ETH doesn't
even hit my targets, like know 400 or something he's just
like goes goes to like 800 bucks or something like that and chops around a bit then back up to
1400 then back down to 900 just like fucking does that for a while you know eventually uh eventually
investors will get sick of it um and you know basically he can get like fired by his board
at once every year i think there's an opportunity for it.
So I think it's the sort of time base as well as price base for these companies.
And the thing is, if, if you have this situation where.
You know, AI, AI keeps looking exciting.
There's going to be more and more new AI companies being founded.
Um, because the old AI companies are kind of getting a little bit, um,
shall we say overconfident, a little bit stagnant.
So there's people founding a lot of new AI companies.
There's going to be agent companies, robot companies.
Robotics is about to, I think robotics is going to be the next day.
I robotics is going to blow up in the late 20 twenties, like AI did in the early
20 twenties, because you know, AI makes robots a lot more valuable because they understand the world
right do you have a sticker associated not really because i i don't know i don't know what i i i
have this thesis i'm very maybe but tesla is not a very clean expression of this thesis it's basically
just an elon musk bet it's up a lot already. Obviously, it's very expensive. But I do think robotics is going to do in the late 2020s
what AI did. And you can imagine something like Ethereum, right? If basically, if Ethereum doesn't
actually do anything, it doesn't actually ever get any users, it's just kind of like sitting around
and yeah, maybe there's like stable coin payments, but they don't actually ever get any users. It's just kind of like sitting around and yeah, maybe there's like stable coin payments,
but they don't actually translate into any revenue to the token.
You can imagine all of these other newer, shinier things just taking the capital away.
That's how you get wrecked on tech trades, right?
Tech trades, it's kind of rare for a tech trade to just outright blow up.
Even in crypto, it's kind of rare for a tech trade to just outright blow up even in crypto it's kind of rare like situations
like luna and bitconnect they are the exception most tech trades i.e altcoins in the crypto space
they just quietly die right most tech companies in the real world a lot of them will die a sort
of long agonizing death so i think that's basically the the bear case for
something like bmnr is like let's say because the criticism i've given of ethereum is that
ethereum should be a tech company right they should be like facebook they should be able to
just spend billions and billions billions of dollars getting a huge army of developers to
make their product ethereum good
but vitalik is a fucking communist and he doesn't want to do that so instead of it being a tech
company ethereum is like a ponzi scheme attached to a charity so people who put money into bmr
right people who put money into the ponzi side none of that money goes to the charity right the
charity just has to run itself as like a charitable foundation with people
working on low wages and really sort of like tight for resources.
And all of the money just goes into the Ponzi.
None of it ever makes it, makes it across.
That's the problem with Ethereum.
And it's taken me a while to work this out, but fundamentally,
Ethereum is a charity married to a Ponzi rather than a tech company where the money from the sort of the, you know, the stock blows into the business side and is spent on developers to make the product better.
In Ethereum, when you put money into the ETH ticker, none of that money flows into actually developing Ethereum.
And that's a huge risk if you're going to be like oh i'm a long-term investor
I'm going to put it in bm and r and they're going to buy up all the supply and it's going to be the future and
It's not man like as as long as vitalik keeps trying to run it as a charity. It's going absolutely
If you were like even if it's $500 you shouldn't because if you get it if you get it at $500 as opposed to
If you were like even if it's 500 you you shouldn't
$5,000 you're you're making it doesn't matter what price it is like you're because because that because there's basically a chance that at some point
Like maybe Vitalik quits, right? Like that would actually at this point be kind of because he's fucking If he quits it's going to 200
Just wait for him to quit
That's probably a buy right like if he quits and vitalik and ethereum
Why not just buy something good that can go up
Like if your thesis is bearish ethereum don't buy ethereum
I'm not buying ethereum at these prices precisely
don't even buy it like buy good things that will go up i think i think it like i think
sub 500 you get into the value range where it's asymmetric where even if there's a 30 chance you
can argue everything in crypto is asymmetric that doesn't mean If there is not a theorem is not asymmetric at these prices because it's so big that it calm like a theorem calm thousand X from here
It's it can't do it. It's too big. There's too much money too many people hold it right
Like so, you know in order for it to be a good bet either it has to be cheap enough to be asymmetric
Like that would like thousand acts like that would
like that isn't that's ridiculous does it does something need to be a thousand x well i mean
i mean you i mean oh oh you're on you were saying you thought iron was going to do 70 000 which is
a 700x right so again right uh from yeah from here so that would mean that overall that was basically a thousand x right not quite but close no uh i didn't say a thousand x i said 10 to 20 x yeah yeah but you see it's
already up 70 it doesn't matter right that literally doesn't matter if the company's
uh increasing its profitability its scale its value it will go up yeah so so iron was
a good buy at one because it actually did have thousand x potential if you're saying once it's
up at one no one wanted it because it crashed from 20. but it was asymmetric but it was it was
asymmetric it was asymmetric because now i was a unique individual most people hated bitcoin
mining stocks because most of them were yeah but you know at that at that at that stage of the
cycle they always get hated it's just a cyclical to one it didn't magically start at one yeah
exactly exactly so it was a good buy at one dollar but not a very good buy at $28 because $28 and you just hold it and it goes to like 70 and like the next cycle.
That's what I'm saying with ETH.
That's what I'm saying with ETH.
I'm saying if it becomes very cheap, it becomes asymmetric.
And the problem, the reason that I don't want to buy it now that I'm not really feeling much
I did actually feel quite a lot of FOMO,
have I really missed you?
Like I actually thought I was a great company at $5,
but you're saying Ethereum is a dog period.
I like the value and the price.
I don't think it's dog shit.
I think the problem is it's being mismanaged, it has a lot of potential uh it has a big community
it has a lot of brand recognition it's on a lot of exchanges you know fixes itself like what are
you excited about i'm gonna hold cash i'm holding cash like i don't want to buy anything right now
i want to wait until there's always a bull market somewhere you don't want to hold cash like i've done well with energy there's always something right that's that's
obvious but nakamoto how long are you willing to hold these melting ice cubes i i think basically
i'll hold cash for like three to six more months and then see where we are at all you know that's
that's a very do you think in three to six months uh three
to six months ethereum's gonna get it shit together but naka you think nothing's gonna go
up in the next three to six months like you don't even want to hold the s&p 500 or like like i mean
cash come on man like well if we're if we're i mean you can hold bonds right it's just not worth
it for me it's not worth it for me to go to the hassle of holding bonds for like five percent you know like short-term bonds but basically like i do
think i do think we're late late cycle at the moment uh in terms of the liquidity cycle and
generally you kind of want to be like bonds is what you're supposed to hold at least in america
uh i'm 40 why the fuck are you talking about bonds?
Why are you talking about bonds?
Because that's what you're supposed to
That's what you're supposed to hold
Yeah, that's what you're supposed to hold in your 90
No, but I mean at this point in the cycle
You know, I mean yes, in terms of like
If you were investing your pension And you're not going to touch it for another 40 years, then.
Yeah, I have a pension, but it's like, it's, I need to organize it.
You know, it's scattered between various private pensions and it's something on my, right.
So I, well, it's a bit of a shit show.
UK pensions are actually quite a shit show.
And the thing is, I, when I was younger and I was, you know, working like kind of normal
wage cut jobs, I just assumed that they were investing your pension kind of like, you know,
But now that I've looked into it a bit, they're actually doing a lot of quite retarded things
Like they don't buy tech stocks.
You know, if you're a teacher, cause I used to teach mathematics. If you're a teacher
in your twenties and you're accruing pension in the UK, they put it into fucking bonds and that
is stupid, right? If you're a teacher saving a pension, that's going to be spent when you're
70, it should be going into tech stocks. But they didn't do that. And I didn't realize it.
Um, so yeah, anyway anyway basically in terms of tactical investing
in terms of like investing on a you know six month to 18 month like horizon you should i don't think
you want to really be holding any risk assets right now i think it's all dangerous what about
like dcaing bro like if you were to dca bitcoin just for example from now until october you don't
think that i don't i don't think it's bottomed i don't think that i don't i i don't think it's
bottomed i don't want to i don't want to touch it when it's um in this state yeah i mean well i just
but the question is like let's say you dc ate it and it goes down to eventually 30k let's be
pessimistic like i think you still would get some good entries during that eight month period, like you mentioned. So I think you'd be pretty good.
if it's going to go to 30 K 70 K is a good entry.
So there's no point starting the DCA,
the most conservative thing,
I never hold actual cash.
Like I old Berkshire Hathaway that's 30% cash.
I always want to be, even when I'm real pessimistic,
I invest like a really old person when I think it's going to kind of crash
because I want some exposure.
I mean, I've done pretty well on XLE.
I don't know if I would advise people to buy XLE right now.
I've done okay on gold, pretty well on gold for the
last six months. I'm starting to kind of convert some gold back into Bitcoin, that situation.
People are saying that's a dumb idea, but I mean, I just look at the chart and it's up so much
against Bitcoin. So I'm doing kind of a strategy where I'm selling kind of cash-secured puts
on MicroStrategy, on BMNR, on Ibit. And then like I mentioned, if these make lower lows, a strategy where i'm selling kind of cash secured puts on micro strategy on bmr on ibid and then
like i mentioned you know if these make lower lows if micro strategy and uh bmr make lower lows
against bitcoin i'm going to say get the hell out of those convert to ibid or if bitcoin makes a
lower low you know against the sb 500 i may just kind of convert to that or you know berkshire
other way that that kind of thing it's just very like this is all just a low risk high reward kind
of macro allocation plays which i think work very well um right now that's kind of like a lot of the
strategies that i've done pretty well um with yeah i mean i i think gold is expensive right now
like i think i think if you look at it if you look at gold corrected for inflation it is about as expensive as it was
in 1980 at the top right um yeah so if you do if you do gold over cpi it the current value
is like about 15 or something um and at the top in the 1980s it was like 11 or something whereas at the bottom
in like 2000 it was like 1.4 so gold is like and you know sort of average value is about three so
gold is about 5x overvalued compared to what it should be now it won't instantly correct and so
it'll take some time to correct i think but i do think gold is is kind of expensive here
and and you would kind of predict that for this part of this i mean to start with just look at
the fucking graph okay look at the graph look at gold on the monthly you know open up a chart that
goes back to the 1940s and tell me that this isn't a bubble it's obviously a gold bubble right um
you know it's not the time to be opening a new long gold trade after
we've just chatted so incredibly hard. Um, the, the, you know, in my opinion, the time to open
that trade was, was when it broke out. Cause when it broke out, it was like, you know, broke out in
like 2024, mid 2024, it broke out above a bunch of previous highs and it's like, yeah,
this is going to run. Okay. So it has run. Um, it's done like a two X nice.
Okay. Probably time to take some profits, move that from gold into like,
you know, short-term bonds or something. Um, you know, what, like if you,
if you look at sort of, you know,
business cycle based investing at this stage in the cycle, what, like, if you look at sort of, you know, business cycle-based investing at this stage in the cycle,
you probably, like, it's probably time to just be very defensive, basically.
You know, there is a time to be risk on in tech.
There's a time to be risk on in metals.
There's a time to be risk on in all sorts of different assets,
and right now is the time to risk on.
Well, given that energy generally peaks out at the end,
would you consider energy right now?
I think that's a little bit high right now.
Yeah, I mean, you can, you can,
but it's like, you know, energy is not...
I mean, like, what is it, like XLE, that kind of thing?
Yeah, I mean, that's been my best investment this year yeah like defensives are not gonna it's it's it's you know it's gonna make you
money but it's not gonna make you it's not gonna like change your life levels of uh of money and
what's let's look at xle okay so xle you know mean, it's, it's up a lot actually since 2020, but I suppose it crashed a lot.
I mean, the average value of XLE is in the thirties and it's now 56. So,
okay, that's pretty good. But again, look at the chart of XLE.
It was at 44 in like the, at the end of 2045.
It just suddenly chatted up like crazy.
And it's like, you don't want to buy this, right?
You just, it's just this massive fat green candle that's gone up from like 44
I would not buy that at these, at these prices.
If you bought that in 2020, you know, that was a good buy, right? When XLE crashed into, into like the 10s and
the 12s. Okay, great. Energy has crashed. You know, this is probably, um, this is probably
not going to last, right? Energy is not going to be, um, in the shitter forever. Otherwise,
the whole of civilization is over. That was a good buy. But the rest of civilization is over that was a good buy but the rest of this is like
very uninteresting right and you could have bought it in 2008 you could have bought xle in 2008
for 44 it was 44 at the end of last year so you could have basically just crabbed along on this
stupid like boomer trad fi chart from 2008 until 2026 that's 20 years and made like no money and that's not even that's not
even adjusting for for inflation um so yeah i mean you know i think the import not good
basically you know this this kind of like defensive stuff it's like maybe worth it if you're rich
if you're not rich it's like really really again, and you, if you look
at, if you chart XLE over CPI, so there's a, there's a CPI index on, on trading
view, you know, if you adjust for CPI, right.
It's actually down since 2008.
So it is, it's even now it's 18% down since 2008 adjusted for their fake
version of inflation, which actually understates how bad
inflation is so it is not good but if you bought energy in like you know october 2020 then yeah
that's fantastic that's that's up like 200 and it's quite a low risk thing so i yeah i mean um
and probably i'm probably the xle thing is like you know we've just had a major war
in the middle east that's probably contributing to a little bit right you know energy stocks are up
because you know energies is energy prices are up because oil prices are bright yeah a lot of it
yeah yeah definitely i i mean i agree it's up i mean i it looked attractive like compared to the
s p 500 at the beginning of this year looked attractive against bitcoin It looked attractive compared to the S&P 500 at the beginning of this year. It looked
attractive against Bitcoin. It looked attractive even against gold. It still looks pretty attractive.
If I were to bet what's going to go down more, I would probably bet gold is going to go down more
than XLE. But where I am right now is I would even, when I look at all these things compared
to Bitcoin, Bitcoin's starting to look more attractive compared to a lot of these
things. Because I'm somebody who, you know, generally my technique, at least for long term,
is like buy things and rotate through things that generally trend up with time. Gold, you know,
S&P 500, you know, Bitcoin to a certain extent, Berkshire Hathaway for the last 60 years. I mean,
things of that nature. So even if I'm wrong, I'm still probably going to kind of make money.
It's looked attractive to me, you know, since then.
It's jumped a good amount against the S&P 500.
But now, yeah, I mean, it's up 30% against the S&P 500 from like year to date.
So now, like I'm considering like, what do I put it back into?
Do I convert it back to the S&P 500?
That's not the most attractive thing at the moment.
Bitcoin has some potential for kind of my strategies.
if I'd like caught the pump on XLE,
I would hold some of it because I actually think if,
I would keep a moon bag of XLE.
Like it's a little shit coin. bucks up more, it will go higher. So there's likes, I would keep a moon bag of XLE. Like
it's a little shit coin. Um, but I would sell most of them, put it in short term bonds,
put it into like, you know, 90 days, uh, 90 day treasuries or, or the equivalent thereof
and just sit on the cash and be chill and be in cash. Right. If you've made a lot of
money over the past three years in risk assets in this bull market you know and now things are starting
to turn the worst thing you can do is invest in risk assets we'll just start what if i just use
it to sell cash secured puts on something like ibid and i'm betting that like bitcoin doesn't
make a lower yeah exactly i mean that's that's actually one trade that i like in theory if i
have the accounts to do it which i I don't, I should be selling.
You could do it in a retirement account. Because I've been mobile.
It's really hard to have a trading account when you're mobile and moving between countries.
It's just a lot of hassle.
You can't just get into it like you can with crypto.
If I had a trading account, in theory, what I would have to do is basically sell puts, cash-secured puts on Bitcoin at ridiculously low prices like 25K or 30K, which is prices where I want to buy it anyway.
If the put was actually executed, I would just hold.
Yeah, I guess it's harder for you guys to have trading accounts.
I mean, it's easy in the US.
It's the same as getting a Coinbase account.'s not much harder it's not much harder it's just i did try to do
it and then they were like oh we can't we won't let you do it you have to send in like three
different forms of proof of address and you know i didn't have those and i had to sort them out and
then i did and then i moved house again and so now i'd have to like do that again and it's like
yeah i will but i'm busy with other things.
it's annoying kind of like real life bullshit.
But if I had the accounts,
it was completely frictionless.
I would probably put all of my cash into selling cash secured puts on Bitcoin
strikes are like 25 K or 30 K.
because that would outperform.
Sorry. Are you homeless? Yeah, because that would outperform the bonds Go ahead, Bitcoin Sorry?
No, dude, I've got a home I've just moved to a new place
I was actually homeless for like a month
Not like on the street homeless
But living in an Airbnb homeless
because I'd been kicked out of my old accommodation.
You're a digital nomad nowadays.
Yeah, digital nomad levels of homeless
because I'd been kicked out of my old accommodation
because it was student accommodation
hey, the students come back now,
It was a lot of moving around,
a lot of real life bullshit was a lot of moving around a lot of
No, but the place I'm in now is quite a lot like Hogwarts
It's it's in a it's in us. It's basically in a town in England that is famous for
A school that's kind of like Hogwarts. It's you know, like an old English public school, but oh
Well, I guess you would call it a private school so in england public school actually means private school it's a bit
cool you're going to the school of ethereum cheerio the school of ethereum yeah the school
of ethereum vitalik vitalik runs the uh runs the runs the magic class where he makes your money disappear
You give him the money he gives you a little a little digital, you know, little digital beanie baby and then you dumps your money
Sounds like you're in the town of oxford naka
Uh, well, it's it's not that far from oxford. Yeah, so that of area beautiful matt what's up bro what are your thoughts oh what's going on guys
ai dentist centers up btc at range highs hyper liquid making new year date highs micron and
sandisk looking like they want to hit price discovery consumer staples basically back to being low beta not doing shit um i don't know yeah this
is pretty pretty nice i think it's uh i think it's it's um uh i forget who said it earlier but
you're right there's some things in a bull market and some things that are botheringing out. So to me, it looks like Bitcoin, software, AI, hybrid miners,
they all look like they're still bottoming out.
And I'm happy to buy at these prices.
As close to 60 and 65K as I can,
I mean, Bitcoin's technically software.
Bitcoin isn't software. is a bitcoin is a digital bitcoin is a digital precious metal okay fine i agree i actually
kind of agree but tradify treats is a software and it got sold off for the rest of sas um i think that
i think they're making the mistake and so i'm happy to buy as close to 60 and 65 as possible.
And I bought two nice, two big slugs of MSTR with a,
I think my average is around 129.
And I want to do one more in the summer before we put a cap on 2026.
we've waited three plus years
for the next Bitcoin bear market.
And sure, I would love to buy cheaper,
but we're back at 2024 prices
and only greed would make you skip out on this, you know?
My original price educated guess was, would make you skip out on this, you know?
My original price-educated guess was Bitcoin has a self,
Bitcoin corrects down to 60K.
We got pretty damn close.
Maybe we retest it, but that's good enough for me. I hit the target that I was looking for in 2026.
So I'm shopping, you know.
I haven't added to any AI miners or anything.
You know, just like Bitcoin mining stock guy, you know, those positions are multi-year old.
So just, you know, let your winners ride there.
And then, so to me, it looks like Bitcoin,
AI software, it's still trying to bottom out. But energy, all things energy are breaking out.
You know, whether you're talking the mega caps, like you guys have been talking on and on about
XLE, but also the medium and small caps too. Your double digit billion and your single digit billion
market caps. There's breakouts everywhere, some many in price discovery. And
it's especially attracted to the energy plays that are catering to AI build out.
They're just, you know, in the past,
everyone kind of used energy as always this sleepy,
low growth, you know, dividend stocks
that they're never going to, they're not that exciting.
They don't move that much.
Like if you get a 2X in five years, that's good.
And that's about as good as you can get.
But not right now, not right now at all.
many of them are seeing just massive demand and and it's and it wasn't just a one-off not you
know unless you think ai the ai build out is largely over in 2024 and 2025 none of this is uh uh uh
like the demand the demand for energy especially the demand for energy quickly
is is like crazy when you listen to elon talking about this he basically says in the short term
you literally can't get the power online power is like backed up until 2030. that's the bull case
So we just buy a bunch of Nibius, basically.
Nibius or the companies that are providing energy to Nibius and Elon.
So it's funny you brought up Elon. that he tapped now twice on two massive energy deals to power his XAI, that giga mega AI data center that he's got in Tennessee.
You know, them, Bloom Energy.
I mean, even if you want to stick to safer stuff like the Mega Caps, GE ge vernova like these these companies these are not your
sleepy energy companies that your father and your grandfather used to trade these things
if you zoom out a lot of them a lot of them are 5x and 10x in the last year and a half two years
that's nuts that's crazy and they're getting and and so like i think the my thesis was yes 2024 2025 that was everything
ai up only uh i feel like this year and we've seen it already for not one not two but three
months in a row this is energy's year um you know and yeah i i agree with that i do think that energy
is actually the smart play and i think people who are like people who are trying to chase the AI,
you know, software side are probably not going to do so well,
but people who, people who know,
I mean, cause there is the problem right now that like all these Gulf states
that we're investing in it are getting absolutely wrecked by the Iran war.
So actually some of these AI companies could get, they could actually have a
down round it's possible.
Um, but like the energy stuff is, is extremely, um, it's extremely
The reason it's extremely bullish is quite fundamental, which is that human
populations in the developed world have been relatively stable and per capita
energy uses has flatlined. So, you know, energy was boring because it was producing the same
amount of energy effectively every year for the past 40 years. Now, AI basically has insatiable
demand. AI wants infinite energy, right? Humans don't want infinite energy. If you have a human,
infinite energy, right? Humans don't want infinite energy. If you have a human,
a human uses about 10 kilowatts of power, right? So that's 0.01 megawatts averaged over their
lifetime. So that 10 kilowatt load, if you give a human more than 10 kilowatts, there's not really
much they can do with it to enjoy themselves, right? There's just not much you can do. Maybe
you could drive a slightly bigger car or go on more holidays but you know it doesn't really help you much whereas ai sort of has like
infinite appetite and ai is twice as happy if you give it twice as much energy and that's always
true so the demand for energy has just gone absolutely vertical and it's not done but it's
not done right it's never done and the supply of energy is just super fucking constrained because energy is a physical thing.
It has a physical footprint.
And if you suddenly need lots and lots and lots of energy in a short amount of time, the market is just unable to provide it.
Unless you've got the capacity, unless you're a proven operator with, you know, a track record of excellence.
But you're seeing that in some of these companies' earnings where they'll post a quarter and they beat their EPS by 15%, 25%, 35%.
That's like a software company. So companies that have already got signed,
they've got an agreement to a certain amount of power
that's for a certain amount of time and that's legally binding,
they're going to be able to sell that power for a lot more than its market rate.
So they're effectively holding a call option on power
and that's suddenly worth a lot, right?
Yeah, because they don't care.
See, right now it's a very unique window the ai people don't care how much they pay for
power because the energy energy bill for their ai is like one percent of the total and the energy
companies don't care who they're selling it to see we're in a very unique window right now where
no one has no one has a monopoly on AI yet.
No one has a moat that's insurmountable by the competition.
No, wait, no, it's anthropic cloud.
No, wait, maybe Gemini, Google's Gemini.
Oh, wait, here comes Elon with Rock and on and on and on. And Meta is upping their game.
And Amazon announced one of the biggest CapEx spends in 2026 ever.
Like they're all trying to outspend,
outcompete, outgrow their competition.
And while they're all, and this window,
and maybe it's 2026 into 2027, maybe it's longer,
but this window of time where the Mag 7
and and i'm not even mentioning all the privates uh and medium caps but they're all trying to
beat each other and are willing to spend big bucks like energy companies are just like sure
you know well yeah well i can deliver i'll sell to you they don't care who wins as long as
uh as long as they're they're paying so so yeah so so basically the world the world suddenly has
a massive demand spike for energy yeah it was not anticipated and energy takes a long time to
sort of spin up and so you, there's going to be excess profits
for anyone who's able to produce and sell energy to AI.
It's a version of NVIDIA two, three years ago
where NVIDIA didn't really care
who's got the winning LMS model,
who's got the winning suite of AI tools.
NVIDIA just wants to sell its chips to anyone and everyone who's got the cash and China too.
So it's just a version of that.
These energy companies, big and small and in between, at the end of the day, they don't care who does or doesn't win this ai race and database database center build
out uh if you've got the green they're open and ready to do business with you and uh i think this
it's not going to just be a quarter or two this i don't think it's going to just be oh it was only
2025 and first first half of 2026 i think this plays out for a lot longer than some of the bears give it credit.
Yeah, I mean, personally, I just don't know what to allocate to to back that thesis, but I believe the thesis.
You know, if you don't want to spend all week, all month constantly just researching energy deals,
there is nothing wrong with just having a big slug in xle or i would suggest uh the aipo aipo aipo it's a little more
aipo etf is a little more um focused That one's basically AI power.
Okay, that's quite interesting.
It's got a lot of my favorites.
It's got Constellation and a bunch of the big AI names.
But yeah, I mean, unless you feel like you've got alpha in our early,
there is nothing wrong with getting a low-cost focused ETF on energy or AI or a hybrid of the two.
Matt, why do all these tickers and equities have such cool names. Constellation, Solaris.
Like, dude, these are all names from, like, altcoins, bro.
They sound like altcoins from the 2017.
And maybe that's why they've gone up a lot, dude.
You know, Stellar Lumens, Iota.
Dude, like, people sometimes they just buy stuff because the name sounds cool.
Well, it catches, I mean, a catchy name doesn't hurt.
But then a couple of quarters or even a couple of years of solid earnings,
that's really where you make your money.
That's, okay, now the thesis is proven out.
And you can, you know, something to sink your teeth into.
Yeah, I saw the Nibius news.
Actually, Bitcoin stock guy, I saw the Nibius news today.
Did you already touch on that?
Yeah, I forgot what the terms are.
How much are they giving up equity-wise?
I have no idea whatever $2 billion worth gets you, I guess.
It was like $95 or something, right?
They gave up the discount on that, right?
They had to give up something.
Yeah, I'm sure it wasn't just market rate,
because otherwise, you could just buy it on the market.
Yeah, I mean. But it's the, but I mean, I know that, I don't know.
I know there's some iron and cypher bowls that are salty and picking at it, but it's
not, I think we're missing the forest for the trees.
It's just the stamp of approval. NVIDIA is backing, you know,
NVIDIA is throwing money at Core Scientific via CoreWeave.
NVIDIA is throwing money at Nibius.
NVIDIA is putting the stamp of approval, you know, certified,
I forget the exact term, but verified certified vendor with iron.
Like, it's all bullish, you know.
It's all excellent advertising
i agree what i think uh you know if i i'm obviously biased because i'm i'm a iron maxi
but uh what i thought was very interesting about nebius or nubius uh whichever you want to call it was that they posted their goal of developing five gigawatts by 2030.
That is an incredible, ambitious goal.
If they could do that and monetize that,
that's $10 million per megawatt to $50 billion per year ARR, right?
Like, that is an incredible goal.
I don't know if they'll hit it, right?
But they put that on the market as well, right, in addition to that NVIDIA announcement, right?
And, you know, it makes me think about my bags, right?
Because I'm always, you know always trying to run calculations and think,
how fast can Airon actually develop their 4.5 gigawatts
that they've already secured?
They're deploying the air-cooled B300 right now,
and they're retrofitting their existing air-cooled facilities.
They've got good margins.
The time to compute thesis is going to play out.
But how fast can they build, like, two, three gigawatts, right?
Or four gigawatts, five gigawatts?
That is, like, something that, like, I can't stop thinking about.
But if Nebius is promising 5 gigawatts by 2030,
maybe I'm not even bullish enough on IRAN.
They're not paying any co-location fees.
They already have thousands of workers.
They already have gigawatt sites.
I don't know. Maybe it'll take, I don't know if it'll take four years, maybe longer. I don't know. But I think even if they can
get two gigawatts, that's a 20 billion ARR, right? That's at least a 100 billion market cap.
and it's trading at $13 billion today, yeah, that's a great return.
And it's trading at 13 billion today. Yeah, that's a great return.
Yep. I love the ambition.
I think that, I mean, and the best part is Iron has had a couple of years now
of proven track record and operational excellence.
So they say, hey, by 2030, this is a realistic goal.
You know, I'm not going to say no.
Yeah. So anyway, wrapping it all back to the beginning point, it's a bear market. Bitcoin's
been in a bear market for over three months now. I think it'll stay in a bear market for another
three to six months. But I really think the meat of the move is over.
And if you're bullish Bitcoin, you're bullish AI and you're bullish software for the medium long
term, you need to be, you know, going through your watch list and checking it twice and seeing
what's on serious sale that you want to add to in 2026. I don't think you're going to get cheaper prices in 2027.
So, you know, you've got till now, till what?
And whatever you scoop is what you scoop, honestly.
Iron's, you know, incredible.
Unless you, if you don't want to pay attention to all the individual names,
with just getting a nice big slug of WGMI.
And that's still going to get you iron and cypher
as your two biggest positions.
One of the coolest sounding tickers
Hey, dude, do you guys think pigeons are real, man?
I mean, they're physically real.
Yeah, dude, there's one guy on Twitter named Pigeon.
That guy's definitely running bots.
Yeah, he's a freak. He's an actual freak. Oh, that Pidget. That guy's an asshole. That guy's definitely running bots. Yeah, he's a freak.
He's had some ill-timed posts.
He's released, like, five points.
But anyways, Smallcast, what's up, bro?
How's the lifting coming along?
What are the three... are the the trio numbers yesterday i just i did a speed day so i did uh axle bar
clean and strict presses 205 for 15 and then i did seated dumbbell shoulder press with the 115s for sets of 12.
then i agree so you got to be you got to be over over 15 1600 for the
for maybe not that's kind of crazy but for bench squat dead you got to be in that area huh more
than that more than that wow uh and then um i did some close grip paused incline presses with the axle bar.
I did 325 for sets of four.
But just going for speed.
You should have days where, like, you focus on speed, low reps and speed.
And then after that, some Viking presses and then
just some general, some general bodybuilding stuff. That's pretty much it. Um, but, uh,
yeah, as far as, um, the markets go, I mean, hyper liquid new year to date highs and uh i think this thing is basically
bnb during the uh bear market of 2018 bottoming process of 2019 it was like the only coin in
majors that went into price discovery while bt was still suppressed. It feels like the Solana of 2022, you know, it's capturing all the volume.
The only thing would be like the unlocks, which happen with every altcoin.
And you have to be mindful of that.
So for me, Hyperliquid is just a momentum trade.
Hyperliquid is just a momentum trade.
And I think that momentum trade is Hyperliquid going into, like, the top seven, top eight, something like that.
And that's pretty much it.
But, yeah, that's pretty much it for me, man.
As far as, like, like markets go just here speaking um
micron yeah you look like they want to hit all-time highs so it's probably time to hit
those trades again um yeah do you remember last week when i was on here i was saying maybe it was
i think it was early last week i was saying saying how, um, it's like, I'm sitting here looking at watching the markets every
day and I can't tell if the market is just the broader market is extremely weak or it's
just extremely resilient and strong.
And, um, you know, I, I, I think that this is just stubborn resilience right now.
And it, it, it it really it honestly
surprises me because every time i don't remember the last time that we were in such a range for
some of the basically the stocks and the companies that have been driving the market for the last
three to five years ever since covid um i don't remember a range this long. Like, you know, zoom out, look at NVIDIA on the weekly timeframe.
It's, uh, it's pretty wild to watch months.
It's like, you know, I feel bad for one of my buddies. He just started, you know, he just got a financial advisor, just started investing, um, literally
five months ago around middle of October, beginning of November, maybe not five months,
but basically since we've been in this shop and he says, like he's, he said to me the other day that, you know,
he's, he's ever since he started with, with this advisor, you know, he's down like 10% in three,
three months, four months, mainly because of Amazon. Um, and I, and he's like, should I get
rid of them? I'm like, no man, it's just, I mean, I'm not going to tell you what to do, but it's just
a, it's a pretty shitty time to get into the market, right? If he, if he got in five months before that,
he'd be looking pretty, pretty solid right now. But you know, anyways, every, every time that
large cap tech or even, even the miners, you know, we're on the topic of the miners,
the Bitcoin miners to AI providers, every time it looks like they're going to break that,
those three to four month ranges on weak momentum or just headlines, fear, they hold. They dip,
they stabilize and sort of bounce right back. Obviously not to highs or through highs, but
they're just holding. So tech finds buyers on AI still has legs, those dips.
And obviously with extremely strong earnings in CapEx backstops.
And the miners, again, are clinging to their supports just as the demand for compute continues to increase.
the just demand for compute continues to increase.
And we're seeing that as really just the infrastructure side,
getting these build outs ready to, you know, keep these GPUs running.
So obviously, you know, I think that moving forward,
just in the example from Iron, you know,
a lot of these companies, they're extremely capital constrained.
Some of them are execution constrained as well. from iron, you know, a lot of these companies, they're extremely capital constrained. Um, some
of them are execution constrained as well. There's a lot in the space that probably aren't going to
make it even with insatiable demand as you know, people like to call it. I just think that some of
the companies are just too far behind. Um, not just when it comes to infrastructure, but also capital wise and their ways of raising money,
whether it's debt, JV, equity, et cetera. But I think moving forward that we're going to see a
lot of these companies when they're locking up deals, whether it's co-location, cloud,
whatever it may be, I think you're going to see a lot better payment terms
when it comes to prepayment.
You know, Iron, they had their five-year deal with Microsoft.
It was for about $10 billion, $9.7 billion.
And just from some of the things that I'm reading,
some of the newer deals that have happened over the last,
basically, year to date since 2026,
we're seeing much more favorable terms than these companies were getting with the hyperscalers back
in August, September, October of last year. So that's something that I think is going to happen
because it can. Wes Cummins, he's the CEO of Applied Digital. I think he's, they're a really good name in the space as well. And he talked all about their most previous earnings report in January, how it's been extremely easy to basically negotiate with the large, the hyperscalers that need to bring, you know, need power, need compute, need to run their GPUs
just because they have what like the home bases of the hyperscalers don't right now. So
I think that that's going to be really interesting. That's honestly what I'm looking forward to seeing
through the rest of 2026 is the deals that are going to come, what the payment structure looks like, how much capital
can you get upfront in order to obviously, you know, provide value in the longterm, but also in
the shortterm, not hurt the shareholders too much. Um, but nonetheless, you know, it's, it's a,
it's an extremely new industry and the amount of capital that these companies need is just through the roof.
And you have to secure it at the end of the day.
Unfortunately, dilution is just part of life when it comes to this market.
And when you're growing a build-out that is so just beyond what words can comprehend or what
really any of us can possibly think. Um, sometimes you got to bite the bullet in the short term for,
uh, long-term value, but yeah, I'm pretty, I'm pretty interested to see what happens.
Um, and when I say that the market seems just extremely resilient, it's like, I don't remember
a time where we've had more geopolitical uh not not even
tensions just headlines news and you know different things that come out every single day that drive
the market and and i mean a lot of it is priced in sure there's definitely a ton of risk priced
in into the market right now but you just never know what what's gonna come out day to day or
next week the week after we have no idea i mean
there's i don't think that it would happen but there is a chance that american troops
get sent overseas and then from there you know what happens to the market then
you know like nothing's off the table that's why i feel that i think that we could there is a good
chance this year that we could go lower right right? I mean, we just don't know
The possible geopolitical drivers are just
Who knows what will happen next but uh, I'll cap it there
That's kind of just what I'm thinking what I'm looking at right now, Bobby
You what are some of the long-term stuff that you like man, I don't think I've ever
Picked your brain about this one like just long-term stuff that you like man i don't think i've ever uh picked your brain about this one
like just long-term names and equities growth stocks which ones do you like yeah well i was uh i mean i love the miners i i'm i'm invested in iron cipher and terror wolf um those are the the
mining stocks that i like the most i also i was a i've been a long-term
investor in transmatics tmdx for a few years now that's probably i mean i don't know if you want
to consider that a growth stock or not uh that's that's probably my favorite like growth name in
the market right now because it's one of the like highest returns I've ever had but it's I'm an AI investor like I I truly I definitely believe in AI um I think that there
for sure are some parallels to the dot-com bubble but I don't think that we're necessarily there yet
so what are my favorite you know long-term plays if you say that Wabi, like I, I mean, selfishly, you know,
I'd love to see more of a drawdown in, in the mag seven guys and in NVIDIA, Amazon. Um, cause I
think that just, those are the names that you're going to, that are really going to outperform,
um, and, and just stay strong throughout the long-term future.
But as far as the growth names that I'm in right now, I'm very heavily invested.
And I don't really talk about it too much on this space because it's more Bitcoin, AI.
But I've been very heavy into transmatics. Have you ever heard of it, Wabi?
It's basically a organ transportation company.
So for different transplants, it basically just solves the...
It's like a seamless transfer of organs all across the country for,
TMDX. I've been in TMDX for like almost four years now.
And it's been quite a hell of a ride, but
they're really just only getting started in my eyes.
I can talk a little bit more about it on another space.
But yeah, Wabi, have you ever...
So you've never heard of TMDX, huh?
The only equity names that I've played over the last year has been
Hood, SanDisk, AMD, Intel, Iron.
That's like the basic basket, man.
That's like the basic basket, man.
I've never really ventured out outside of, I guess you can call them crypto proxies or macro proxies.
I do like Nibius, though.
I like the name, and the chart looks like it wants to go into price discovery. because a lot of these things, man, they're all coins in 2017.
They have these cool sounding names.
They're following the trend, which is AI.
And you have to follow where the money is. is you can't do things like expecting a sector to go crazy and expect a hot
sector to to change you just you just can't I don't really see how attention
would shift from AI to anywhere else if AI and all that
national security and not really
Oh yeah, and then of course
health, that stuff is going to do
And we talked about HIMSS.
Prometheus talked about HIMns and it's up like
50 so that probably goes into price discovery at some point um and the market cap is only five bill
and that's a relatively low valuation so how much money do they make? I have no idea.
They have $2.3 billion in revenue right now and they have like around 13% of the margins
which are low but they're massively acquiring many companies to expand internationally.
Did they make $2.3 billion dollars yeah under I mean they have been growing I had no
idea to revenue news to me yeah go ahead interesting I didn't think they're that
big that's cool are you talking about him yeah I'm talking I'm talking about
him and they recently acquired a company called Sava and another
The Eucalyptus one, I think they pay, don't call me on this, like 1.2 billion and they
have 400 million in revenue.
They're like almost a break even company, but that's how they're expanding their brand
internationally. almost a break-even company, but that's how they're expanding their brand internationally,
and eventually they're going to be well-positioned for the peptides.
But they're a marketing company, right?
They don't actually own any of the intellectual property, right?
I don't own a stake in the Luxmaxing trade yet.
It apparently is growing.
It's up and to the right,
man. It's up and to the right.
Yeah, it's growing just as fast as the
AI data center, and it makes sense.
You're going to have a lot of people
We're probably going to go into an 80s or 90s rush where it was
mostly about aesthetic like your aesthetic said a lot about you but but does does hens own like
a pharmacy like do they own a compound no no no no, no, no. Yeah, I mean, they're...
Yeah, you said it how it was.
They're basically the middleman.
They, like, it's a platform.
Like, you sign up and chat with a doctor.
Yeah, and yeah, for now, for now.
I mean, because basically the goal of the company...
It's like buying the hood, bro.
It's like buying the hood of looks.
That's exactly what it is.
They, I mean, they have 2.5 million subscribers
Like, if Clav is going to be
and Eugenic is up and to the right,
are basically straight down,
you look at guys like Vitalik you look at the guys
from solana they're now just talking about political stuff um instead of talking their
products doing media marketing their own stuff they're just they're lollygagging no it's getting
big wabi it's it's you know it's the trade it's huge yeah and trade itging. No, it's getting big, Wabi. It's the trade, man. It's huge.
It's like buying pump fun.
If it's down like another 20% or something.
I think it ultimately goes down to who owns the IP, which is the large pharma i think cams could uh you know bring
they could have success but ultimately who makes all the money it's the large pharma companies
right they've done a really good job at branding and like retaining customers and engaging them i
saw something that like their average revenue
per account is it's almost up to a hundred dollars in the previous earnings, which
is a real compounding effect. I think that just last year was kind of a crazy year.
There were, I think that just like a lot of these companies are going to have to grow into
their valuations. And that's kind of what we're seeing right now. You know, HIMSS, they jumped into the GLP one or the compounded semi-glutide when the
shortages hit. And that scaled insanely fast. They hit like a hundred million dollars in run rate
in less, I think it might've been five or six months, which is obviously going to, you know, cause some waves,
you know, push some, uh, they, they made some noise. Um, and I think that they're starting to,
yeah, they're, they're, um, so I didn't, I didn't, I went, when him's broke 30, I,
and really was starting to trend just down in the last that last three months. I kind of took my eyes a little
My eyes off of it, but yeah
I don't know the exact details of what they're doing with Novo exactly but them and Nordisk. They are
Basically partnering together to my understanding
It's probably more than that.
Red Hat True Tide coming out
I think next year or two.
You guys can correct me if I'm wrong,
but when you say Lily has like, uh, Reda coming out within the next year, however long
it's going to be, you know, a lot of these medications, these peptides, um, they're not,
you're not getting them from like the traditional source. You know, it's a lot of medical, medical.
Yeah, exactly. When they, when they do get to that stage where, you know, the lilies of the world, like the names that are in, uh, XLV that like the healthcare ETF that are, that those, those are the names starting to push it and carry it.
I think it's only, it's only going to make the names that, you know, the companies that are sort of providing them and offering them now, even, even stronger.
sort of providing them and offering them now even stronger.
Although, you know, you'd think differently.
But I think that in, like, healthcare, competition isn't a bad thing.
It just proves that there's a large business for it.
It forces the large market to lower the prices, right?
I think it's a sexy market, right?
If I wanted to diversify out of – I mean, it's just another sexy market, right? If I wanted to diversify out of,
I mean, it's just another growth play, right?
the data center market's growing 80% a year across all the data centers, right?
And then I read that GLPs are growing 80% as well, right?
So I think AI is obviously mogging,
you know, I think the GLPs will be the next NVIDIA.
Lily could be the next NVIDIA, market cap-wise.
That means HIMSS goes up 20x from here, man.
Maybe, yeah. I'm starting to pay attention to it. I think it's more interesting following
demand for AI because it's
I want to buy some other cool things.
I think the weight loss thing
massive value add to communities and the world.
You just feel better, man.
Like if you're feeling depressed, the best thing to do, man, is to just get stronger, get bulky, get aesthetic.
And you'll probably feel great because progression is the ultimate antidote for depression, man.
Depression is essentially being stuck in the past and being stuck in a certain situation,
whether it's a conversation or a major event that happens.
And ultimately, it regresses you.
And as a man, if you stop progressing,
your value add kind of diminishes.
And the best way to show love to yourself and to others
is to never stop progressing.
And it all starts from the inside, right? A man's clear direction, if he loves
himself, is the way he carries himself physically. If you're an able-bodied man, why the hell aren't
you trying to get stronger? Why aren't you building muscle? Why don't you have a hobby that tests your physical prowess in some capacity, whether
it's running, bodybuilding, hiking, biking, powerlifting, strongman, CrossFit. Do something,
man. Do something. Have something that's admirable in the physical sense because anyone can click buy or sell so with that being said i'm gonna go ahead and wrap up the show on a great note on a positive
note on a motivational note i hope you guys can take that i'm actually going to be doing a video
on depression at some point it's just a pretty heavy topic but at some point i'll release it on my personal profile but anyways
if you guys have enjoyed what you've been listening to over the last two and a half hours
my name is wabi and the show that you're listening to right now is called market talk
i host it here on the because bitcoin profile throughout the week whenever the new york stock market is open typically monday through friday the hours of which we go live here is between 3 30 to 3 45
p.m est and we talk all things markets guys whether it's the equity market with stocks
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But we do try to provide a show that's not only entertaining,
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So I want to thank all the speakers.
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