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Market Talk- BTC AND CRYPTO BREAKOUT SOON?! STOCKS RED TODAY?!
Recorded: March 2, 2026 Duration: 1:17:00Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you . I'm so excited. and burn it
You Rock I'm a man. Oh
Oh you carry on
You can
Are you back?
I I Yeah! Yeah! Yeah! And it's a happy world. music Thank you. Oh, my God. Great as me, girl, heavy as the crowd Beaten down and broken, so when you down Overload the bottom of the snow
Keep the ground and heavy, so all alone
I'm gonna swallow all your pride
All you bear, all you care
All you bear, all you care Oh First is how to feel your soul.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you.
I'm not going to love you. I'm not going to love you. I'm not going to love you. I'm not going to love you. I'm not going to love you. oh apologies for that guys i thought uh i was giving the introduction already but uh guys
what's going on hope you all had a fantastic weekend happy monday happy tuesday
wherever you are in the world and uh as the title says crypto is green stocks are red some cool
stuff is actually happening on chain specifically uh with some ai tickers um i think we spoke about
vvv either on Thursday or Friday.
That one was looking pretty good.
That one might actually go into price discovery.
If BTC actually goes into the mid-70Ks, you actually might experience a little AI echo bubble.
But it's usually with tickers that have already been around for a while.
ARK is also having a big bounce after that nasty nuke that happened on Friday.
And yeah, strange enough, equities are down.
The Nikkei is down.
But oil is up almost 10% today.
Of course, that always happens when you have this war stuff going on.
Oil is usually the first thing in trad
fire that ends up um blowing up to the upside and that's what we saw in hyperliquid man you're
starting to see a lot more users on hyperliquid people are starting to figure out like hey I can
just trade commodities on hyperliquid um when trad fi markets are closed. And I think that fits into my thesis that I think at some point
you're going to see Hyperliquid, if nothing bad happens to it,
it could reach the same valuation as the NASDAQ.
NASDAQ right now has a vow of mid-40s.
So FDV of hype is, I think it's like 17 bill right now.
Hyperliquid did have quite a gnarly bounce over the weekend.
It bounced from like 25 bucks all the way to 33, pulled back a little bit.
And I think that's one ticker that could actually survive going into the next cycle
and end up having a run like Solana did.
Just as Solana was a narrative for everything on chain, hype might be everything for the tokenization of things in TradFi. And that's
something that the market has tried pricing in with Ethereum, with Synthetix Network back in 2018,
with Synthetix Network back in 2018-2019.
That didn't work out.
They tried running it on Terra Luna with Mirror Protocol.
That obviously didn't work out.
But now it's actually happening with Hyperliquid.
I think they tried doing that on Solana as well,
but the volume on Solana and Synthetix stocks compared to Hyperliquid, it's almost night and day, really.
It's night and day. Nothing compares to Hyperliquid.
And I think someone on the show asked me and the panel our thoughts on Hyperliquid versus Leiter.
And over the weekend, weekend lighter was having some issues
with deposits and withdrawals and last week it also had an issue with with an Oracle price
think every single person that was long Bitcoin on lighter got liquidated because there was
a wick to sub 50k which was absolutely which is absolutely unreal to be honest but in crypto some stuff on
chain is happening like things are starting to break out even if it's just even if just a handful
of tokens last week we also saw things like expresso going parabolic that's an l2 with
privacy on ethereum eth Ethereum also at range highs.
Solana close to breaking range highs.
BTC as well.
People are comparing this to the Ukraine war bounce,
and I can see that happening.
We were entertaining that on the show on Friday,
where you end up having a dip going into the war,
and then you pump out of the initial stages.
But if war actually does happen, the first thing we usually see is inflation starting to creep up.
You have an initial bounce, but then as inflation creeps up, the market just implodes.
And as we see under a Trump regime, you could easily make an all-time high on the spx and even the qqq
have it be a marginal high of one or two percent above and then within eight weeks you're down 20
and then you just turbo reverse it v reversal style so that possibility um could still happen
um but the q's are have that they've just been struggling struggling for months and months and months.
And with TradFi, it's just been this consistent outperformance from global markets compared to American equities.
I think you had a small period of time where you were able to position in American equities and outperform the rest of the global markets.
And that was between, I think it was between April from the lows all the way to early September.
That was that small time period where the SPX went from, I think we bottomed at $4,800 and change,
and then blasted to like $6,500.
That was your initial chunk of
outperformance. And then after that, you started to have the Nikkei and the Korean stock market
and the Israeli stock market just going absolutely crazy. And Euro stocks as well were outperforming
the American indices. And here we are. EEM was also doing pretty well shout out to joe he was mentioning
em which is uh the emerging markets etf but um that is pretty interesting where you had this
iran conflict go down tradfi it was closed and then you just saw a bunch of people bridge on
over to hyper liquid ends and it just goes back to that to that initial news piece that
happened last may you had some old boomer trad fi guy go on bloomberg and he gave the perfect thesis
uh for hyperliquid um i think it was at like 13 or 17 dollars at the time uh last may after that
huge bounce that we had off of the lows and he was essentially saying that people
want access to markets 24 7 they want a product where a lot of higher time frequency traders
are active and 24 7 and crypto is a perfect example of that we've seen huge liquidations
to the upside and the downside happening crypto on weekends many times we saw some downside action
happening in june of 2022 um i think it was i think it was it was the day before a black monday
forgot it was a day in june and i think that's when btc went from i think 30k down to 17k
uh it was the day before it was announced that 3ac was just was just done for
and same thing with upside when btc broke out of 30 000 um and went into price discovery as well
broke out of 30k in q4 of 2023 went into price discovery uh blew through 69K. I think that was on a weekend.
And I remember very, very clearly because I was at East Denver with the crew in February of 2024.
And that was a huge liquidation for the shorts.
So these massive volatility moves to the upside and the downside
can always happen on weekends.
And if people in TratFi want their markets to have the same kind of market participant,
then you might as well use the biggest native crypto platform that's up and coming that has these synthetic assets, right?
Which is hyperliquid.
You can trade stocks, commodities, play futures, long leverage, short, long.
And I think really the only thing that would stop this scenario from coming true is if something
hyperliquid actually occurs, which I would put a 50-50 chance on that because in bear markets,
or not really bear markets, I would just call it
periods of risk off. Crazy things could happen that people don't really expect.
So that's what I really have to say about that. But I'm really not expecting anything with equities to occur. Perhaps S&P going to $72,000, $7,300.
BTC could rally all the way towards $80,000.
That would be great.
It would offer some juice on chain.
But as far as new tickers and all that stuff, it's still kind of a shitty market.
We were explaining this throughout all of last week you had
so many attention grabbing things occur that were tokenized like the penguin token on soul
uh punch the monkey on soul penguin topped out at like 150 punch topped out around 50 mil ish
around 50 mil ish and these are things that if they released in prior years,
they would have gone parabolic. But anytime these new on-chain tickers pull back 70%,
there's just this unanimous decision like, all right, this thing is cooked. It's not coming back.
It's not coming back. Whether as you look at things like WIF, which pulled back, had multiple pullbacks of 60 to 75 percent from its run from November of 23 all the way to March of 24, people were saying, hey, this is free money on the floor. I'm going to position on this thing.
on this thing. But the context is completely different, right? When Whiff released, we were
going into a halving year, into an election year. The Trump train was already rolling as far as
hype for his election and all that stuff. And you can't underestimate the halving. The halving years
are always going to have that huge hype cycle. And we had so many narratives,
plus the BTC ETF and the ETH ETF.
We had so many wins behind our sales
and now it's kind of like nothing, right?
People are hoping that this war escalates,
but they don't know that these things take time
and hugely markets brace for the worse.
We saw with 9-11, it took about a year and a half for the entire market to bottom.
And that's when Bush announced Operation Shock and Awe in March of 2000, March of 2003.
That's when Bush announced Operation Shock and Awe and then markets bottomed out.
And then we rallied.
Same thing with the Ukraine war that happened in uh early february of 2022 and it took markets well it took the s p and nasdaq about four
four and a half months to bottom out we did have that double bottom retest a few months later but
for the most part the at an indice level just indices, not select tickers, maybe Netflix.
I think Netflix bottomed that on June of 22, but I think MSCR as well.
But just indice-wise speaking, markets did bottom out a couple of months after, but globally they didn't really bottom out until nine months later.
But globally, they didn't really bottom out until nine months later.
So if you want to add in the velocity in which a Trump market moves with its volatility to the upside and the downside,
then perhaps all of this stuff can be, quote unquote, priced in by the time Warsh comes in.
I see small caps in the audience. I'm going to send you an invite to speak brother
if you want to come on up so i'll send zach an invite as well if you guys want to come on up as
well if anyone wants to come on up feel free to hit that request button as well i'll bring uh i'll
bring um really everyone up we're gonna have some of our usual speakers come in as always i'm just
kind of giving uh the intro monologue here but uh with war these things
usually have an initial pullback and then they have a huge rally and then you know the market
does what it does and i think tomorrow is the blood moon or whatever it's called and uh anytime
this happens there's always some sort of like dump that occurs either the day of or the week of or at best, like a couple of weeks after.
I think we had one, I think it was in September and a few weeks later, 1010 happened.
We also had one the day that FTX collapsed and Luna collapsed.
So perhaps we get one more chance at getting 60K BTC or maybe a little bit below.
And for the most part, that ends up being a bottom in equities.
Equities could bleed out 10% to 15% without crypto really doing much.
percent without crypto really doing much um we saw that happening in 2023 ptc had bottomed out
We saw that happening in 2023.
um second half of 23 at 24k and then the nasdaq and the s&p pulled back between
i think it was like 12 to 14 percent between august um of 23 all the way to late October. And that could happen.
That could very well happen.
Am I expecting that?
Not really.
I do think crypto could be affected,
but hopefully the market surprises me
because I could be wrong.
I could be very wrong.
And I hope I am because I'm an individual
that likes to play on chain.
I'm an individual that likes to play on chain. I'm an individual that likes to play
on chain. I'm sure most
of our listeners
also enjoy
to play things on chain instead
of just longing
and shorting majors.
thing I will say about
things on chain and all that stuff is
PSYOPAnime.
That's a ticker that would have blown up to like 100 mil if it were last year, 2024.
I mean, you have a page that is being shouted out across every single crypto media news outlet.
every single crypto media news outlet and even normies are are sharing these
videos of news events that are animated and they go really really viral but
there are certain people that have talked about psyop anime and truth be
told I really don't like them like there are certain people whenever they talk about an asset it's it's
it's kind of not good um but we'll see they they do have a lot of traction i just
i'm just not fully confident in it because anytime you have these ai tickers that are somewhat new
um there is a possibility that they could just flat out rug,
but they do have virality.
But that lobster coin also had virality and it just went to shit.
But I think the biggest difference is that that lobster coin ultimately failed
right after the guy sent like 5% of supply to himself
and he just
rugged the token completely. But there is still going to be opportunity on chain, whether it's a
crab market or whether it's a bear market.
And I think that's the grace that this current market regime has
compared to 2022, or if we want to compare it to the second half of
2023, where the market experiences
a slight pullback and the market gets shaken out and people think oh crap you know the S&P is going
to retest uh its 2022 lows because the fear was there you did have the S&P pulled back by
by 12 percent I think the S&P bottomed out at about 4,000 and many people were scared.
And the narrative was, all right, this whole BTC ETF thing is a fugazi.
The coin telegraph guy, that was a fugazi.
We're going to retrace the entire 2023 pump.
Equity is already front running that.
You have the S&P and the NASDAQ pulling back 12%.
Lose this level, it's lights out blah blah blah blah
and um we ended up breaking out so anyways um so you guys can go ahead share the stream show some
love to the show you guys already know what to do click the spaces tab once you guys ready to do that
Click the spaces tab.
Once you guys ready to do that, there's that nice little link that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
Does a number of things, guys.
Helps bring more people in here.
Hit the like button, retweet button, all that good stuff.
Spaces are recorded as always.
But that's kind of my opening monologue.
Small caps, I'm sending you an invite to speak.
If any of you guys in the audience also want to come up and talk shop, ask any questions,
maybe there's something that you're seeing in the market that we haven't been discussing here on the show,
all you guys have to do is click the Spaces tab and then click the little request button to the bottom left.
And I'll bring you right on up.
But, Zach, what's up, bro?
How are you?
Yo, what's up, Wabi?
How you doing, man?
Can you hear me?
Yeah, loud and clear, man.
Yeah, man.
You know, we had Ben Callen on second time in a couple days, actually.
He stopped into our morning space.
I listen to him a lot, man. He's got some good takes on the market. He's not always right.
Nobody is, but he's got a pretty good pulse. I mean, on at least when things get overheated and
we had a good conversation today talking about, you know, what he sees and, you know, talking
about midterm years and how there's a lot of volatility. You know, he thinks this could be maybe like a little bit of a a fake out if you will and you know the bottom still to come later
we haven't really swept that 58k range just yet maybe eventually we we do um you know his time
frame was like somewhere in in may um in the springtime and then you know maybe kind of get
boring in the summer months and kind of slowly grind up. And, you know, he's like a big proponent of if it's like traditional bear market, which he
thinks it is, you know, normally like anywhere from 10 to 12 months from where you top to where
you bottom. So, I mean, if, if that's the case, like, you know, October last year taken us into
maybe, you know, that August range of this year,
which kind of lines up with some of the other big events we have, like,
you know, Fed chair, you know,
coming in and then obviously midterms kind of lining up to be potentially
volatile too, man. But yeah, he had some really good takes.
I've been listening a lot to what, to what he's been saying, honestly,
from a, from a TA standpoint, at least.
So, yeah, man, I'm not, you know, trying not to get like overexcited.
I mean, it's still kind of like we're still range bound, man.
And we've been down here since Bitcoin came down.
I think it was February 5th.
So it's almost been a month.
We've basically just been kind of trapped here. I mean, I think eventually we're going to get some type of move. It's looking like maybe, you know, 73, 74 K would be something like that wouldn't shock a lot of people., um, you know, I'm kind of looking to, to, you know, perhaps short the market if we get up there, at least
We've basically just been kind of trapped here.
I mean, I think eventually we're going to get some type of move.
from what I'm looking at and from what I'm hearing from some other folks.
Um, but in the intermediary, man, I think there's, like you said, there's some good
opportunities still.
Um, I know you always talk about hype, man, you, you kind of, uh, forced me to look into
it a little bit more and I actually bought some little under 30 bucks.
And so I think, I think what Hyperliquid has, I see Joe putting the thumbs down.
I mean, they're generating revenue though, man, like that, that's why they're going up. I mean,
go look at what they're doing. Like a bunch of people are placing these bets on U S oil there.
Like they actually have a revenue model, unlike many altcoins out there i mean so there's
a reason why the the the main thesis is that they're up 64 in the last year in a shit market
so you can't can't argue it yeah and the nasdaq is has only produced um a multiple of like five in net revenue um versus hyper liquid and i think my only fear with with
hyper liquid is that it ends up being like the luna for trad fi where luna just crushed dude
luna crushed careers in crypto that that were like pre-etherium man you had a lot of you had a lot of people from like
the 2013 bitcoin cycle that went over to that went over to eth and then went over to luna like
you're talking about 60 billion dollars that were wiped and many people got crushed and walked away
because life happened i'm sure many that that happened to many people when Mt. Gox went down and whatever.
That's really my only fear.
But it broke, though, because of the algorithmic stablecoin and that whole idea didn't work.
That's kind of why it went down.
With hype, it could be something else, obviously, but you don't have an algorithmic stablecoin attached to it, which could bring the house down.
But you're right. There's always a risk. I'm just saying in terms of altcoins, I think you've been nailing it on the head.
That's the one that has outperformed in this market. I'm heavily invested in Bitcoin over everything else, but still looking for opportunities out there. And I think there's a reason why that's continued to go up in a,
in a terrible market for crypto. Yeah. I would compare it to hood.
I think hyperliquid is like hood. That's what I would compare it to. I think
I call it the H and H portfolio um you ask yourself like where are
new traders going to go that like velocity um and markets all in one access to all markets
bridge in and out it would be robin and Hyperliquid, like new generation.
If you want to front run new flows, by new flows, I mean volume, new liquidity, it's
Hood and Hyperliquid.
I think the Hyperliquid story has a lot more to go if you compare it to eth if you compare it to soul
um before it was like all right like uh how do you price in the growth of stable coins
well we already had that we had the circle ipo that was it and you had a tether coming out with
a with a little debit card credit card thing their neobank which effectively puts a lot of these like
crypto neobank startups at zero now they basically one-shotted all these neobanks
i think nexo last week if anyone remembers nexo that like that crypto credit lender company that's
been around for almost 10 years they they opened back up in the u.s and they effectively
got one-shotted by by tether and in one in one go and i expect that to happen hyperliquid one-shotted
pretty much every single perp decks moving forward they one-shotted lighter before their tge
um and i know some people have accused me of being like a, a lighter futter, but everything I've, I've said about lighter has, has come to pass. They're a crappy platform. Um, and their token price bad. Look, man, here's the deal in crypto. Bad price equals bad project. And that's that, that just is what it is, man. Bad price equals bad project and that's that that just is what it is man bad price equals bad project but
the fact that like the fact that there's any product worth billions of dollars and you have
issues with deposits and withdrawals like that's an effective zero compared to something that's
already been working for years and has already been stress test hyperliquid has been stress
tests already um they had that attack from north korea
and i think binance tried like hurting them as well cz flooded them indirectly with that comment
he made about jeff and they're still around man and to my knowledge they didn't really have these
these big vc rounds or or equity rounds i see joe requested joe what's going on man what are
you thinking about this move in oil how are you man doing great how are you wabi i'm okay man um
i'm okay i had a rough night yesterday um but i'm alive man what happened uh no it has nothing to
do with markets, man.
I can tell you that much.
It's okay.
You know, there are things other than markets that matter in life.
Are you okay?
You need help?
I mean, I think it'll be fixed if I go to the...
What's her name?
I don't know what you're talking about, Joe, but what are your thoughts on oil, brother?
I have no idea what you're talking about, Joe, but what are your thoughts on oil, brother? I have no idea what you're talking about, man.
I mean, I think this is a classic sell-the-news type move on oil.
I mean, personally, I wish I would have been not busy.
I was busy all night and morning with some cases,
and I'm just taking a break here for a minute.
I wish I would have shorted at the open.
I wasn't paying attention.
I was too busy.
But, yeah, I mean, you know, it bumped up to $75,
and to me that would have been a great short.
I would have liked to do that.
But, I mean, everything looks really constructive here.
You know, I was pounding the table a few spaces ago about Netflix.
I bought call options on Netflix when it was trading at $77.
And now those call options are up 400% as it's trading at $97 in the span of like four or five
trading sessions. And I think it makes a new all-time high this year. Personally, I think
it was a disaster for them to go down the Warner Brothers bid, and I think that thing's over. So
it looks like Paramount's going to secure that so i'm excited about that i'm also excited
that i was able to load up a ton of spot of palantir at 128 bucks 129 130 i bought that
whole move when people were convinced it was sinking lower and you had people in these spaces
talking about the death of of mega cap tech and emerging tech and now now it's $145. And, you know, you get this reversal here, which is one hell of a reversal.
I mean, you know, you had, I mean, all the major indices gap down, recover,
and by the end of the day, flipped at least marginally positive.
That's really bullish, in my opinion.
I don't know, what is it going to take, like, to bring the market down here?
We've been
ranging, as someone was saying, maybe it was Zach since like October. Is it going to take a nuclear
bomb? Is there going to be an asteroid that's going to come down and just like wipe out the
planet and finally bring stocks down? I mean, what more volatility, negativity, bearish positioning,
people telling you mega cap techs are dead and AI is going to
eat the world. What more news is going to come out to drive the market down? To me, I think that
this has taken frustratingly long, which is great. I love the bearish sentiment and positioning.
People still talk about, you know, you get huge, shall remain nameless, talking about 80% collapse
in the NASDAQ, even though we're like, you know, less than 10% off the all time highs.
You're less than 2% from the S&P making a new all time high.
Plenty of stuff is running and looking really, really good here.
You know, Bitcoin looks like it can reclaim 70K and, you know, you get back up to into the 80s.
Basically, that's where we were back at in November.
So big nothing burger over the last several months of consolidation.
I mean, to me, everything looks great.
I don't know the negativity.
I don't know.
I don't quite understand it.
I think the economy is reaccelerating.
You got ISMs turning up.
You're getting prints that we haven't seen from a fundamental basis in like four years.
I mean, if you want to get bearish, fine.
If you want to sell, fine.
If you want to, I mean, I hear, I even hear people in this space,
I don't know who was saying, but somebody was like, oh, I want to get short.
Okay.
Good luck.
I mean, like, why?
Why do you want to get short?
Like you had, you had my opportunities to accumulate a lot of assets the last
two weeks, very low levels, and they're going higher.
So, you know fine if
people want to get negative uh but uh in the end those who remain bullish are going to make all the
money small caps what's up bro i saw you off mute
I saw you off mute.
If you're talking, you're on mute, man.
I don't hear anybody.
I just hear you, Wabi, and I hope you're okay.
I'm really worried about you.
Yeah, I'm fine, man.
I just saw...
You know, it's okay to ask for help.
We need to normalize asking for help.
I think just uh time he time
heals all things man time heals all things and i'm just gonna i'm just gonna train man that's
what i'm gonna do but that's nothing train train get ready for uh grand theft auto we got we got
so much so many great things coming um you know man i i don't think that that game is going to
release this summer 2.0 is coming.
The weather's about to turn.
It's going to be beautiful out.
It's going to be on the beach.
Yeah, I mean, one of our guys is getting married in September,
which is great.
Yeah, it's great.
That's going to be fun, man.
That's going to be really fun, man.
Joe, do you think we've bottomed or no?
I mean, yeah.
To me, I don't know any period okay and and I've been I'm being 100 objective I was wrong about earlier bottoms but so I'll fully
take a mea culpa on that but I don't know any period of Bitcoin's history where the sentiment
has been this atrocious where you had people just falling over themselves talking about
the end of Bitcoin and cryptography to smash Bitcoin and there's no buyers and sailors trapped
and people talking about sailor. I mean, there was, I was in a space, this space, again, I don't want
to bring up any specific names, but somebody was talking about like, well, if Bitcoin goes to 10k
and MSTR is going to be like, you know, liquidated,
I mean, this is the type of stuff you hear every single time at a bottom.
You do not hear this when we're like, you know, complacent, near the bottom, waiting
for capitulation.
I mean, I get it.
Like the calendar is confusing people.
But, you know, I still, my view is that we're making
a new all-time high this year.
I think Bitcoin makes a new all-time high in 2026.
I've never waited for that.
It's taken way longer than even I thought.
So I was wrong on that.
And I fully accept being wrong
because that's what an adult does.
But I mean, to me, Bitcoin looks fine.
I don't see what the big, you know, noise is about. If you look back April of
last year, Bitcoin was at like 70, you know, thousand 74 K. Okay. April. So we're at like 70 K
now. Um, yes, you had a disappointing end of the year. You had a bunch of people convinced that
they had to sell and they did sell. They sold a ton of spot bitcoin because of calendar bro four-year cycle
bro and fine like you know if you think it's that easy i wish you luck i hope you make a boatload of
money but i think there's i think there are billions of dollars that's understanding it
i think there are tens of billions of dollars waiting to go back into Bitcoin. And make no mistake,
if Bitcoin gets a run here and moves into the 90s and then 100s and then moves higher,
all that capital is going to FOMO back in. Without a doubt, they're going to capitulate to the
upside just like they capitulated to the downside. Because people are lemmings in this market.
Nobody wants to do anything besides react to the latest news of the day or, uh, latest, you know, vibe session that people want to talk about. It is, it is
nothing other than just a market where people want to just feed off each other's panic and feed off
each other's hopium. And there's no independent thinking. That's why, you know, I, I try to get
on these spaces. I advocate, I think the best thing you can do in these times is do nothing i literally think the best thing you can do is resist your urge to act you know if you have
capital to accumulate accumulate don't get over your skis don't get over levered don't borrow
money to buy you know bitcoin i think that's crazy um and and just you know go with the flow and enjoy your life.
Are you buying any alts, Joe?
I know Hyperliquid is one that you had asked me about.
I don't know if I asked you about Hyperliquid.
I asked you about another token I can't talk about, but it was an AI token you were at.
The reason I asked about that is not because I was going to invest in it.
But no, I'm not buying any alts here because I think at the end of the day,
all the alts are going to run if Bitcoin runs.
So you need to get Bitcoin to get breakthrough.
To me, again, I'm not a huge TA bro, but to me it looks like you really got to pound through 75, 74, somewhere thereabouts.
If you put that in.
So the March 2024 high basically.
Yeah, you got it.
Yeah, I think if you pound through 74, 75K, you're going up into the 90s.
I don't think it's even close to me.
You know, that's just my view
yeah i i would i would say that and i think he would get eth at like
24 2500 but but but here's the thing i don't care about the exact levels i'm just saying like
if you were to do that if you can get Bitcoin back into the 90s, the sentiment on this place
is going to flip instantly.
It doesn't even need to make, I mean, I can hear it right now.
People clamoring about how that was it.
It was an abbreviated bear market.
The cycle, you know, theory held true.
And we're moving higher now.
We got our, you know, 50% drawdown.
It was more muted than last time.
And the sentiment is going to flip instantly.
I think it will turn on a dime.
We're going to be in these spaces, people talking about new all-time highs
if you can get into the 90s.
No doubt.
Yeah, and then we just end up in a range for a few months.
100%.
We could sit there in the 90s then for like four or five more months.
Yeah. Over the summer the summer right with summer
doldrums every bears position getting chopped up position for lower bulls position uber bullish to
say we're going right back to all-time highs um and then we chop in the 90s for most of the summer
boring the hell out of people that seems like the most likely scenario not what i want but definitely the most yeah i mean so i i've never understood this term summer doldrums when um over the last 10 years the summer has
always been a great time to to go long um 2016 was great 17 18 was great, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24, 25.
It's not really until like early August where everything just dies out.
And then there's nothing to do until the week after Labor Day,
which I feel like that's kind of one of my catchphrases.
Anytime we go into like August, there's like this saying that i say where it's like all right
there's probably not much that's going to happen until the week after labor day and that's been the
case for a number of years now man no it hasn't i mean look at look at last year when was the best
time to buy bitcoin in 2025 the best time well i mean i mean it was april and then you had a monster rally from april
into roughly may in may you're at 100 105 109 and then guess what by september we were at 105 109
so no no joe we we actually we actually hit a local bottom at like 93, 94 in mid-June, and we rallied to like 124 going into August.
Yeah, but then we fell right back down into September, the end of summer, back to 105.
Yeah, but it was a nice momentum.
We had a 30% momentum move.
Yeah, but the big move, the 50% move, which you're forgetting, is from April until May.
April to May, we rallied, just to refresh people's memory.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
We rallied from $74,000 all the way up to, what was that, $109,000?
Yeah.
No, $112,000.
In the span of six weeks, we a 50 move on bitcoin in the after after that
you know after that uh uh tariff thing right the tariff you know whatever controversy and and keep
in mind i don't i i think it's really confusing people that like i still think bitcoin is tightly
correlated with the equity market and the equity market has done nothing since basically October, like the broad equity,
the tech stocks, the mega caps, the S&P, it's sitting at the same level as in October.
So if you get, you know, you get S&P at 74, 7,600 this summer, which I think is very reasonable.
You get a big move to, you know, the early part of the summer over the next few months here.
I mean, Bitcoin's going back up to the hundreds, no doubt.
You just gotta get that equity move.
You gotta get that broad impulse.
And do you think crypto reacts
if the S&P pulls back like 10 to 15% like it did?
Yeah, listen, if the S&P rolls rolls over this is why I respect many views except
for the fact that people that say like S&P rolls over when Bitcoin goes higher like that that
doesn't make any sense to me given the way the market is structured if if the S&P is going higher
and Bitcoin is going higher if that's your view that makes sense if you if you think the S&P is
going lower then I'm I'll fully admit I think bitcoin goes lower alongside it i don't think they're like separate or different trades
there's some a lot of shops trading the same stuff they're trading bitcoin trading mega cap tech
they're trading you know uh high beta stocks and bitcoin all alongside each other so if one of the
aspect of the portfolio is getting degrossed their bitcoin position is going to sell down alongside it
aspects of the portfolio is getting degrossed their bitcoin position is going to sell down alongside it
the proof of fib what's up man i brought you up because you requested i brought some people up
proof of fib how are you man what have you got
uh he's not saying anything um god see her rock spy what's up man hi hi hi um greetings
to everyone i thank you because bitcoin uh for bringing me here to your space and i greet
everyone as well on listening and um on speaker role i think um this year is very capital uh and
i think if we are to look in terms of what happened last year and in fact what has been
happening for the past three years in terms of uh people's expectations toward the bull run itself.
I think there's been a lot of expectations
in relation to the market.
And I think this year is very critical
because a lot of things that the people,
or analysis, whether it's a market analysis,
whatever people have been using in the past,
last year itself proved itself that in as much as the market analysis,
the data, the past data, you know, that has been happening for the previous years,
we cannot rely on it for the following year, especially this year itself.
And I think that's why a lot of people, if they're not properly positioning themselves,
they may find themselves missing out big time because of if they still want to follow the data that has been happening.
And I think especially for starting from
this month personally i think you know just we should begin to see some good crypto breakout
some names begin to be mentioned out and some good search toward the middle and you know and
toward the end as well and was in preparation to april so i think i think the market is really really uh
at peak at prime moment whereby we should begin to expect uh those rally mean coins that have been
struggling for very long time that has been building for very long time and any other crypto
project that they've been really investing in building their community and building the product itself.
And I think we've never been in a good time in crypto history, in crypto industry itself
because of how much the hunger that a lot of people they've accumulated for the past three years from 2022 they have not
really they have not really been a very big movement in terms of the market as public this
year who should be expecting and i think that's where i think i think personally i always advise
people i think the time now to begin to begin to find yourself in those communities
that are more active, more proactive, and on those real utility projects that, or maybe
or meme, that they've been really investing a lot of time to build a community and to
strive out for, in preparation to this year's super cycle.
Okay, thank you for your time.
Yeah, yeah, no problem, man.
Thanks for coming up.
Fun to your capital, what's up, man?
I've seen you request to speak a handful of times.
So I brought you up.
I think I brought you up on Friday, but like I brought you up
but you weren't on the mic.
Fun to hear. What's up or how are you?
All right. They're not.
I'll jump in, though, to that last speaker. I mean, I think the crew, bro.
I mean, we all expected it to go against the grain and it, you know, it happened the same way. It seems like it happened in 2017 and 2021. We topped out in Q4 and we started rolling over. I mean, so if anything, I think, you know, the one big difference, like it took us, we never had like euphoria with Bitcoin.
Like it took us, it was like the long, slow ride to one 26, whether like that's like institutions
or ETFs, or we didn't have retail or maybe all three of those things, you know, that,
that was a difference.
But in terms of the timeframe, like we topped out in Q4 and I mean, you know, all the four
cycle, four year cycle people look like they're right again right now.
people look like they're right again right now. I mean, you know, to Joe's earlier point, if,
if, if we start, you know, rolling back up here and the bottom was 60 K and we only come down 50
percent and we rip higher than, okay, then super cycle. And those folks who, you know, say that
look right. But I mean, as of right now, the trend is that, you know we're coming down. And I mean,
that's why I think a lot of people are looking at it and saying, you know, we're coming down. And I mean, that's why I think
a lot of people are looking at it and saying, okay, we have diminishing returns. We also have
diminishing bear markets. You know, a lot of people are saying we come down 65, 70% from the
top based on history. I mean, it's difficult because we never had all of these sort of things,
you know, happening inside crypto and all the craziness that's happening outside crypto.
So it's always, you know, it's,
it's always tough to forecast what's going to happen based on the past.
But I mean, it is kind of crazy that the crypto is kind of stuck to those
patterns for, for a while. I mean in terms of Q4 at some point,
usually October, November, somewhere in that
timeframe of topping out, I think it was December of 2017, but November, 2021, if I remember,
and then October here, 2025 so far. So yeah, man, I mean, I still think personally,
eventually we come back down and, you know, test that 60K level again and maybe drop and
sweep 58 at some point this year. Could we still then go back higher and hit all time highs later
this year? Yeah. I mean, Bitcoin's volatile. I mean, it could certainly still happen, but
I don't know, man. I'm always kind of somewhere in the middle, bro. And I feel like you are too,
in a lot of ways. I never like to be like a perma bull or a perma bear. I want to be prepared for any scenario. So, you know, yeah, I've been shorting Bitcoin in the
short term, but buying the hell out of it at a spot. And I think that's something I tell my folks
that at least that listen to our show a lot is like, you don't have to like subscribe to one
idea and do one thing to be successful. Like you don't have to be a perma bull and just buy Bitcoin
and hold Bitcoin forever. And that's your strategy. If
you want to do that, fine. Don't make people feel stupid if they don't do that, because there's
other ways to win. I bought Spot the day it went down to 60K four times, but I've also been pretty
successful shorting it here as of late. So you can deploy a lot of different strategies in this
market and do well.
So I just encourage people to, you know, find what works for you.
Yeah, a lot of people are also just momentum traders. Like they play these momentum moves, they go back into stables.
And that's kind of how I am.
And I like playing momentum more than anything and um
i kind of view hood is something where like if you play a momentum trade in crypto um
you can just bridge that over to try to fly get yourself some hood and um
Get yourself some hood and I think you'll be pretty happy.
And in five years, ten years, you'll be very, very, very happy.
Because market speculation is just going to continue to break out.
I think like what we saw in COVID with a lot of the new generation starting to invest, I that's just gonna be up into the
right especially when these AI companies start to IPO I just think many people
are gonna get rinsed just dollar costs averaging into into meme coins that are
really just momentum plays and I think people really need to recognize that
that yeah meme coins are here to stay but a lot of them are just
they're narrative driven and once the narrative dries out they're going back to zero man like
they are effectively going back to zero um unless it's like a doge or or a pepe which
i mean if pepe goes under a billion, that's like free money right there.
Or at least right now it seems like free money because things can always change.
Things can always change as far as, like, as far as, like, you know, what happens if the market makes new lows.
Because something could always happen with some of these altcoins that are just
that are just range bounds right because we've all seen it before right like we think at one
certain altcoin is going to do good and then it's like you wake up to 70 candle to the downside
it has a big 50 60 bounce it does nothing and then it just slow bleeds which is what
usually happens to um usually happens to a lot of all coins i mean look at mantra dow uh ticker om
it had a drawdown of like 80 in a single day and that was a token that was in the billions of market cap and it just never
it never recovered and that happened as the market i think was was was recovering um
let me actually check man i just want to make sure that i have like my data correctly but um
but um give me a sec man yeah mantra doubt they've been around for a very very very long time uh
okay so yeah that big drop that happened on mantra dow happens yeah literally right right as bitcoin was recovering from those lows at 74k
going into the early 80s that's when mantra dow had that big spike to the downside um and that's
the thing right like we say hey if this token reaches xyz price i'm'm going to buy it. But that price that you might want to buy in might be the level in which whales just exit
in mass.
And it just never comes up again.
It just never recovers like that again.
So, yeah, but I mean, right now it seems like, yeah, if you get a discount on Pepe at like
800, 900 mil,
it could be a good price, but
you never know if whales are just
going to sell at that price either, so
there's a saying,
right, you got to risk it for the biscuit.
Heh. Yeah.
If anyone else wants to
come up, by the way, guys, if anyone in the audience,
if you guys have been enjoying the show
for over the last hour, and you guys want to come up by the way guys if anyone in the audience if you guys have been enjoying the show for over the last hour and uh you guys want to come on up talk shop ask questions more so talk
shop because i enjoy more more so conversations than just like answering questions or having
people answer questions but if anyone here wants to come up talk some shop feel free to do so and
uh i'll bring you right on up. I'll just give it a
few moments here. The mantra stuff was interesting. Well, I mean, too, I remember that because I was
looking into that whole, it was an RWA play, right? If I remember, and that's kind of when the RWA
narrative was really heating up. And I couldn't invest in that because there was a lot of red flags i think a lot of people they don't do
the the necessary stuff even then like you could be wrong right for a multitude of reasons but like
you know looking back at like bubble maps and just some of the easy stuff like that one was a huge
red flag to me and then there was all kind of rumors coming out that it was a Dubai cabal and whatever else.
And you know what I mean?
It's already hard enough to find all coins to invest in and feel really good about it.
And so if you're going into it blindly and you're not seeing some of the stuff like that, you're really doing yourself a disservice, right?
It's like, yeah, the odds are already tough, but then they become harder, you know, just because there's there's a lot of that going on.
It is what it is, man. I mean, it's crypto, you know, but there also are some good ones.
I'm kind of interested in this Canton network quite a bit right now.
They're another one that's shown a lot of strength as of late with just how bad the market's been.
as of late with just how bad the market's been.
So we'll see how they play out.
But they've stolen a lot of the thunder in the RWA space,
and they've done things in a really quick amount of time.
You know, Ondo was the talk of the town,
and Canton definitely stole his show here over the last several months.
Yeah, yeah, Canton, man. last several months. Yeah.
Yeah.
Canton,
man.
I remember talking about that ticker like a while back,
but,
yeah,
I'm more interested in this Venice thing,
man. I think charts like that um
like just from a ta perspective right usually you have the launch
big 90 95 drawdown consolidates for a bit and then starts its uptrend but it is up like 4x
off the low um but all the ai guys like that's the venice yeah yeah yeah yeah it's on base so it's
just like the thesis of venice is that it just allows you to have access to various ai models
and it actually works right like the launch was kind of was kind of like piss poor because it
was a huge airdrop and you know with airdrop tokens
that you know if you just use the base you've got an airdrop people just mass dump it and it was at
the top of the market after trump got inaugurated um but it's like the only ai product next to ray
um that works i mean ai xbt also works but, it's just AIXBT is just the basic
terminal. Um, and I do think crypto AI is going to come back in a massive way, like in a huge way
that's going to make Q4 2024 look like a warmup, but I'm not going to say it's going to be 10X
bigger. No, no. Like, I'm just saying that like at some point you
will have those market conditions again where you will catch a cerebro and a goat right like a two
month time period where you just run it up and you know you shut off your emotions whatever's going
on in your personal life you shut that off you run it up and then you process anything that happens
You shut that shit off, you run it up, and then you process anything that happens right after you run it up again.
That's just the nature of crypto.
Whenever you have momentum come back, you just have to ignore everything outside of it.
That may be affecting you in a negative way and take advantage because these market conditions
whenever they get good they don't last for a long time right the status quo of crypto is two to three
months of fun and then followed by like nine months of nothing right and we saw that last year
q1 was a shit show the only period where it paid off to be super super active
in the market was from like mid-april all the way until aster so that was like five months it was
five months essentially with a one month period because there wasn't really much happening outside of useless and a few other tokens from like late june to mid july um because
that's when like all the icm stuff was dying off right cled launch coin we just came off of the
hype of all that stuff and on chain was kind of relaxing for a little bit and then it started to pick up again in july when hostico and all that other stuff
started going crazy um and bonk guy was showing new tickers and all that stuff
uh 2024 same thing q1 was great and then march all the way into september was mostly crap unless
you were on bass or playing a few tickers on soul um and then from like mid-september to mid-december
it was fucking awesome uh 2023 same thing uh 2021 kind of the same thing you only have these brief
moments where you can catch momentum play after momentum play and constantly rotate
and then you know you take your multi-week breaks and all those things.
So I do think that period is coming.
And I'm glad there is at least still some volatility in the market.
Like, as long as we have that, we know that, like, all right, the trends, there's going to be an emerging trend.
And usually after massive downside, there's massive upside and vice versa.
And we're obviously trying to carve out a bottom here, right?
Like we know if BTC actually has a day where it's down like 10 to 20,000 in a single day, that's probably a bottom.
Because there's not much of all events to the downside that occur in a calendar year, 12 12 months right uh we look at 2022 the first of all event
was uh the first real vol event was obviously luna and then 3ac and then ftx you have three
vol events i don't really consider the ukraine war thing of all event um maybe the crash that
we had on december 4th of 2021 december 5th right around
there that was a vol event so you never really have massive amounts of vol events but you know
if you're coming into like that third or fourth of all event like and they're happening very quickly
that's probably a good time to position um so i mean take a look at hyperliquid man like hyperliquid is reminding me of like
eth in 2022 where you think it's going to go substantially lower but the downside targets
um are a bit apathetic for bears meaning like the bottom all right like all right cool it's a nice
discount but it's not the discount that everybody wanted
right so yeah that's pretty much all i've got today i don't really um see many people requesting
i see crypto junkie i'll pass it on over to him but if anyone else wants to come on up
just hit that request button hit the spaces tab um i'll bring you right on up um then i'm just
gonna close off the stream for today.
Jockey, what's up, bro?
What have you got for us? I'm not able to hear him.
Is he speaking?
I can't hear him either.
Do you hear him speaking, Zach?
No, I can't hear him.
Oh, well.
All right.
Well, I'm guessing this whole, like, AWS server attack that happened earlier today is affecting spaces then.
Yeah, I think the UA didn't have like any electricity for like 12 hours or something when the AWS servers got attacked.
Anyways, I'm going to go ahead and wrap up now, guys.
But anyways, I'm going to go ahead and wrap up now, guys.
But if you've been enjoying the stream for the last hour and a half, feel free to give the BecauseBitcoin account a follow.
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want to thank all the speakers I want to thank Zach for coming up here I want to
thank Joe for coming up here I think we had one of the speaker I forget his name
but shout out to all the other speakers we'll be back tomorrow at the same time
and we also have a YouTube show for you guys called Market Check.
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that show on our YouTube channel is hosted Monday through Friday. Usual start time is at 1130 AM EST.
That show usually goes on for about an hour and Market Talk usually goes for about an hour and a half upwards to five or
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speakers that we have on today's show which is usually a big rotation but um usually on fridays
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all that stuff but it's apparent today that we have uh issues with X. Small Caps had issues using his mic.
Same thing with some of the other people that tried to request.
But it's all fine and dandy.
These things happen with technology.
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And it's crazy because this is a multibillion-dollar platform.
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