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Market Talk- $BTC AND $ETH ATH INCOMING!? How to prepare for a melt up
Recorded: Aug. 13, 2025 Duration: 1:29:22Space Recording
Short Summary
The crypto market is buzzing with excitement as Ethereum approaches a potential all-time high, driven by significant capital inflows and bullish sentiment. With Bitcoin and Ethereum both flirting with price discovery, the stage is set for a major altcoin rally, particularly for Solana, as investors anticipate a blow-off top in Q4. The overall market sentiment reflects a growing confidence among participants, indicating a strong potential for substantial gains across the board.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I don't want to be, I don't want to be me.
I don't want to be a bomb I don't know. I want to be, I want to be there, I want to be there more.
I want to be, I want to be there, I want to be there more.
One, two, one, and a half.
I want to be there. Oh
We're gonna Well, I wanna be on something You can wanna see Then you're on my own
And then I wanna talk
I don't know
I wanna be
I wanna be there
I wanna be
Yeah, I'm over
I wanna be
I wanna be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't Don't collect your wallet. I'm going to go to the next episode. I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't want to be, I don't what is going on guys welcome back to market talk brought to you by because bitcoin
happy wednesday happy potential all-time high day for ethereum and eth this is the first
time in uh over four years where both btc and eth are flirting with price discovery at the same
exact time tom lee is uh an absolute giga chad man i think the capital that he has or is about to have later on this week equates to about 20% of Bitcoin, no, 20% of ETH's total market cap and the amount of capital he's going to be able to invest into Ethereum.
in absolute chad he decided to come in right as ethereum is uh breaking a four-year resistance and
broke the resistance it did ethbtc well above it's uh well above it's uh yearly open that's uh
that's something that you love to see the s&p coming into uh 6500 That's the target that I had for the S&P before the summer ended. And here we
are, the Q's pushing up against 600. So stock market is ripping, majors and crypto are ripping,
Solana is catching up to Ethereum. Donnie actually posted a chart that was quite interesting. And it
was something that I was looking at over the last couple of days where solana is really just chugging behind ethereum just by the slightest bit and honestly the things
that we're seeing on solana have been insane useless got listed on coinbase got listed on
kraken so it was it was looking back at the last few weeks, I really cannot believe that you had people saying that Solon chain wasn't going to be anything.
It is the only chain where escape velocity has been achieved the entire cycle.
I mean, me and Donnie ran up Bucky from 0 to 50 mil in less than a week.
You don't really see that on base.
You don't really see that on main net.
We haven't really seen anything reach escape velocity on ETH really since Pepe.
That's really the only thing that has moved if we want to talk about escape velocity.
But I do think what we saw on AI last year in Q4 is probably going to happen on ETH, but at a slower extent.
at a slower extent. I'm insanely bullish on AI going into Q4, as I do think Q4 will lead
to a mini blow-off, followed by either probably a consolidation is my bet, probably by a long
consolidation rather than a quick bear market, kind of like we saw last year from March to August,
a long range like that. If we still look at others BTC, the broader altcoin market still isn't ready
to send. And I understand there are some people saying, oh, man, just wait for it. Wait for it.
All coins, the entire altcoin market is going to catch a huge bid like ETH. That takes time, man.
Others BTC is your alpha for that. That is the alpha. It is others BTC. You look at most pairs on their ETH chart,
they're still getting their asses kicked. I think they're down like 50% or close to 50%
since the April lows, most ETH pairs. But you do have some things that are showing strength,
like a hype. Me personally, over the next few days i probably will start looking
into uh the hyperliquid evm some all coins on hyperliquid as i do think that's probably is
what's going to take hype to the three digit territory not so much the the product they have
with perps especially when you have things like coinbase perps and really the entire, all of the U.S. exchanges now allowing futures trading and perps and all that good stuff.
So I'm looking forward to it.
I'm also looking forward to things that happen on Solana.
It's going to be more of the same thing, usually in Solana's darkest hour.
That is typically when Solana shines the brightest.
is typically when Solana shines the brightest.
And there are some questions that I've seen over the last few days
as far as who's going to be the Michael Saylor of Solana, right?
We have the Saylor of ETH, which is Tom Lee.
And I think it's going to be Mike Novogratz.
Novogratz is the one that put in that huge buy order at $8 Sol.
And I'm confident that he is going to do it again.
I'm confident he's going to do it again, just as he did with ETH in 2017.
He was the biggest ETH bull in 2017.
He kind of got it wrong with the long-term thesis on Luna last cycle.
So I'm betting on Mike Novogratz being the sailor of Seoul. And I'm still hugely
bullish on Galaxy. I think there's a huge arbitrage trade to be made when you compare the valuations
of something like a Galaxy compared to MSTR. Was right on hood, having an arbitrage trade
to catch up to micro strategy. And I think the same is going to happen with Galaxy.
If we're bullish on treasury companies coming into the space and buying alts, then something
like a Galaxy where it buys a ton of these products and also acquisitions in low cap
tech stocks, pre-IPO, massive allocations in their seed rounds then i think nova grats is
going to be uh the shine the shining star as he was in 2017 if any of you guys remember that
yeah i'm sure you remember matt you remember nova grats man in 2017 he was all over the place and uh he called out that metaverse um play before nfts were even a thing but either way guys got a
nice panel up here got about four people donny ragsy matt and paulos we're gonna go ahead and
cook for you guys over the next 45 minutes to an hour probably closer to 45 minutes as
i really want to save the energy for this spaces is once ETH is firmly above its previous all-time high.
That's when I think things are going to get crazy.
Specifically, when you have Ethereum closing above 5,000
and then you see the slightest pullback,
just as we did, I believe it was in February,
early February of 21, late January of 21.
If you look at something like ETH dominance, where ETH dominance essentially trails ETH beating most alts in performance.
If you guys take a look at the ETH chart right after it pulled back and ETH dominance went from about 18 17 back to about 15 that's when you saw things like solana
ripped from three bucks two bucks all the way to like 30 luna blasted above a dollar and went
straight to 25 cardano did like a 20x and most of the all coin market went absolutely ballistic so
in our reality it really seems like what we were supposed to experience in Q1 is actually happening during a, I hate to say it, but a seasonality period where the last asset class was on ironically during the previous
post-halving year in 2021. Albeit we did go through a mini bear market going into Q3
with Bitcoin going from I think it was 64k down to about 28. If you go back to the previous post halving year, this is officially
unk stats. We're looking at data that's almost 10 years old. If you look back at 2017, Q3 was
enormously bullish for Bitcoin. Bitcoin kept on making all-time highs after all-time highs
after all-time highs. And even after Bitcoin got slashed by about 40 45 after china banned crypto in september
it quick it quickly rebounded and uh reached a new all-time high within the month so things really
are shaping up to be sort of like a uh donnie has the right words for it, but a 2017-esque style market.
And I'm really hoping for this cycle to extend as others BTC still hasn't gotten its foot in the door yet.
It barely looks bottom.
It kind of looks like Bitcoin USD after it had that initial push off of $16K in early 2023 after that CPI reading.
If you guys go back to the Bitcoin chart, I think it was like mid-January of 2023,
going into a weekend, Bitcoin had a huge spike from about just under $17K to about $20K.
I'm sure Matt remembers as we were on a space during that time with Joe.
And that's kind of how others BTC looks.
And that's truly your risk on risk off indicator.
And when you look at others BTC right now, you pull up the weekly.
It looks like things are just getting started, even though ETH is about to go into price
discovery.
As far as the broader altcoin market, things look like they're just about to get heated up.
And anyways, before I continue on to yap, as I do have a habit of doing that, if you guys can go ahead, show us a little up to the space, best way to do that is by clicking the spaces tab.
And then right up above our profile pictures, there's a little link that says x.com slash i slash spaces you guys can
go ahead and do me a solid favor hit up that like button smash up smash up that repost button that
retweet button whatever it is that you want to call it it does a number of things helps out with
the algorithm helps to bring more awareness to the show to the brand and of course helps please our tech overlords and all that good stuff so
spaces are recorded as always first off I'm going to pass it over to Donnie as I usually do Donnie
what's going on man we were right the playbook is insane it's unfolding in real time the set has been guiding us step by step and the melt up is coming to pass
it happened in the equity markets and we're knocking on the door for the crypto market
to do the same thing man so looking forward to the cook sesh brother
yo what's up uh man, market's looking crazy.
Sorry, I was just preparing some charts,
but I need to post one more post.
I think I'll do it a little bit later so I can share it.
But yeah, man, market is playing out exactly as we wanted it to
and kind of we're forecasting, which is nice to see.
And yeah, I kind of agree that things are kind of just heating up right now
purely because you're coming to some very critical levels
on the charts that we want to see have follow through
to obviously the direction that we want.
Bitcoin dominance lower, Bitcoin itself higher,
and then the rest of the market just catching up.
So I'll just quickly share the post that I shared on August 3rd
at the bottom of the BTC pullback.
And I was going to update these charts.
I just need to actually upload them.
But yeah, that was a nice little fake out to the downside on BTC.
We had the context, obviously, to go higher with basically,
what's the solution to the economic data that we got in the ISM downtick
on August 1st, right,
which caused this, you know, quick sell off, it was going to be rates coming down. So the market
priced that in pretty quickly. And obviously, you had a very perfect, pretty much technical setup
to kind of give you the hint that, okay, we're at least going to go clean up that liquidity first
on BTC. And then from there, we can kind of gauge if it's going to,
are the catalysts on the other side going to be for upside to cause more demand to come into this
chart? Or is it going to be distributive and we actually set up to go lower? And obviously,
we've got the demand side of things with rates coming down. And that's obviously being
incrementally confirmed with the CPI report and things like that.
So yeah, that was a very clean bottom.
And we've obviously expanded to clean up all of that liquidity pretty much,
except for the all-time high at the moment.
And if you look at that gold and BTC chart, we did have what I was kind of pointing out with that green circle
of a sort of fear climax
where gold at that pullback was basically pulling back
from all of the tariff FUD before it went on a very sharp rally
to 3.5K.
And right now we kind of had like a similar sentiment extreme,
obviously not as extreme as that,
but enough to cause a bit of a pullback,
which was that economic data.
And yeah, we're just pricing on the other side of that.
And it's playing out very aggressively,
which is kind of the setup that that chart was showing anyway.
When you have liquidity like that trailing from the key level
all the way up to the all-time high,
you're going to get a very sharp impulse higher.
And yeah, because the catalysts that are propelling the market higher
are sort of liquidity positive events and bearish for the dollar, I just think you're going to have massive follow through to the upside.
And even just to dumb it down, BTC just follows gold.
And I think it's following that fractal pretty perfectly with the bottoming phase, with the all time high test, bit of a pullback, another rally, one more pullback, and then you get the big
expansion, which the chart is perfectly set up for BTC anyway. So I think once you get above 130,
that's really going to be when things start to move pretty quickly for the altcoin market.
And I think as soon as you drop below 58.5 on Bitcoin dominance, that thing's going to at least roll to the 54 level, which was the election
rally low.
And in that range that it's forming at the highs, obviously, because everything is so
inflated and Bitcoin is well above 2x the prior all-time high, you're setting up the
conditions for basically having an old season.
Deep price discovery Bitcoin, a nice range is
being forecasted by the gold fractal. And you're having all of the old season charts like ETH,
BTC, Bitcoin dominance heading in the right direction. I just don't see how you basically
don't get some sort of altcoin wave in that with that series of conditions confirming basically.
So yeah, just have to keep waiting for everything to unfold.
It's basically almost there.
I think we'll have our answer definitely before
the end of the month. But if not, I think
the September FOMC
should
basically be the nail in the coffin for upside
if we don't get it before then,
like these key levels. But yeah, everything is
looking super nice. And I guess
I'll share that chart that I shared this morning, which was just BTC, ETH, and SOL. And we've kind of mean reverted
back to the classic sequence of events, which is just, you can clearly see on this chart,
BTC has led the market. There's a whole bunch of reasons why, but it's been very catalyst-driven,
just the adoption cycle of BTC. You had
the ETF, you had Trump come in sort of like as a leader to engineer the landscape for this thing to
do well. Market kind of front ran that, pulled back very aggressively when they kind of reversed
the playbook a little bit with the deflationary style playbook, and then they reversed it again,
and here we are all time highs. Now, this is basically the follow through with all of those
catalysts and more for BTC,
which that's kind of the reason why I think Bitcoin dominance
will actually have a little bit of a push-pull this cycle
going into 2026.
It won't just be a straight pin drop down.
There's still too much going on for BTC
for it to just give dominance up like that.
Because giving dominance up in a significant manner
would basically just mean people are rotating out of Bitcoin
to chase more risk, implying that they're kind of done with the Bitcoin gains this cycle.
So I think you can have reversions back into Bitcoin, which will make dominance a little
bit harder to nuke, as we've seen in every other cycle, just go straight down.
But nonetheless, that's even more opportunity for you to basically ride these altcoin waves, capitalize on them, rebuy the bottom of the altcoin waves and ride a second wave up, which is kind of what I'm thinking for 2026.
But yeah, you've had Bitcoin lead the market and absolutely crush the spirits of altcoin holders the entire time.
A lot of crypto OGs just giving up on the space saying crypto is like the worst industry.
It's all scams,
all this kind of stuff.
It's literally just been
a very hard macro cycle
to kind of forecast
and know what's happening.
And we're finally getting
to the very expansionary
side of things
where monetary policy
does get very loose.
And that's typically where,
you know, you have low cap stocks,
ETH and altcoins
doing quite well.
So yeah, you've kind of mean reverted back to the classic sequence of events, BTC ETH,
Sol, and you can see ETH obviously now following Bitcoin wanting to go for the all time high,
which I think is a very easy target in the short term. Obviously, I was projecting that basically
from this local pullback that we had purely because coin was telegraphing another higher high and obviously this chart is very
correlated to it coin is projecting a bit of a pullback because they had like terrible earnings
uh recently i i don't know how i i don't know how i'm gonna uh kind of piece together if we're gonna
get that same pullback on ETH.
I don't think you're going to get that much of a vicious pullback.
And even if you do, I think it'll come from a much higher number,
potentially somewhere above 5k.
And maybe you pull back to these levels
or maybe even a little bit lower, who knows.
But I don't think it matters in the end.
It'll eventually make its way even higher, right?
If those old season conditions really do materialize,
which I think is kind of the highest probable outcome.
And then if you look at Sol below, it's done super well with the meme coin narrative.
It had the deviation of the all time high with the Trump token.
Obviously, that was a very speculative moment and very hype orientated.
So yeah, you did deviate that high.
But if you kind of just zoom out and just look at these charts, it's literally just Bitcoin has led the market. ETH is now following. Sol is
kind of lagging behind, but it's got a similar sort of chart structure. It's just waiting to
get above 207, 210-ish. And it's probably going to go straight to the all-time high, just like how
ETH is kind of doing right now. But it's good that it's going in the sequence because you basically
get a very inflated Bitcoin rotating into ETH. And then ETH gets super inflated. Then those kind of doing right now. But it's good that it's going in the sequence, because you basically get
a very inflated Bitcoin rotating into ETH, and then ETH gets super inflated, then those rotations
go into Sol, and so forth, right, in the rest of the market. And that's how you want it to play out,
even though it can be, I guess, a little bit stressful, because you're seeing ETH at like 5k,
and your bag's maybe not moving too much. It'll eventually happen, and it'll happen all at once.
So yeah, very nice to see
all of this uh i think there's just going to be good follow-through here and yeah all of the macro
levers are in the right direction so feels good man like yesterday i was kind of just looking at
everything and just sitting and thinking and i was like holy it's actually like this is this is as
confirmed as it's been the entire cycle and uh i think it's kind of like
no stopping it right now donnie you want to know what else brother ark invest made a fresh year to
date high iwm made a fresh year to date high as a matter of fact man iwm is like seven points away from retesting the election day high on november 8th and that's
what kicked off everything man and dude i really don't think people understand the magnitude
of useless getting listed on binance us on kraken and on coinbase all in one day all in one day and i understand some people have been
look man the coin is called useless and the cope that has occurred during the entire way up and
from the bottom donnie remember we called the bottom on useless on the sunday stream i know you guys tuned into the sunday stream because
it was the biggest stream that i've ever had on x live we had 400 basically the same amount of
people that i hear on the space from twitch to x live so i'm sure most of you saw that saw that
stream that me and donnie did on this previous Sunday that just passed.
And Useless pulled out the Farcoin fractal. It goes from zero to like 60 mil, has a massive
pullback. Everyone calls it dead, pulls off a huge move to just over 400 mil, has a 65 drawdown they both topped at 405 410 mil down to like 170 180 and then
started spiking back up as it started to get listings and here we are so they said the same
thing about shib like oh why is shib pumping why is shib pumping we already have a dog. Why? It's really something when this entire market cycle,
Solana has been in front of everyone's face as a question mark,
as why would anyone bid this?
Like with AI, why would anybody bid this AI slot, right?
You know what's funny, dude?
You know what's funny?
There's this guy called um
dip wheeler he's like a huge uh far coin whale and he posted a ship post that was actually pretty
funny uh or rather a ship post reply and someone was like i hope you guys are ready for base season
and then he said i think i would rather chop my nuts in half
with a butter knife than ever partake in base season.
And that was funny with his response.
And I'm bullish base.
It was just a funny reply, man, coming from someone
that really just partakes in soul plays, like myself and also him, it was pretty funny to see that.
But I think bass is probably next in line, man, as far as, like, why would anybody bet on bass?
I think it's just going to be more of a slow cook, waiting for others' BTC to really get its win behind its sails, man.
others btc to really to really get its wind behind its sails man we take a look at eth btc donnie and
even eth btc took about a little over four months to really to really get moving and before you
know it man we'll be in november and others btc will start rocking yeah one thing i think that's
Yeah. One thing I think that's kind of slipped on, and obviously it can't be priced in until it happens, is that range that BTC last until basically the end of the year-ish towards January, which
is a long time for the old coin market to catch up if we're going to have Bitcoin dominance
lose 58.5.
I think truly you lose that level sharply, it's going to have a lot of follow through
at least to that 54% level,
which is a big drop from the top.
And like a, what is that?
Like a four or five month range
with basically tailwinds behind altcoins.
Bro, we haven't had that since, you know,
2021 essentially, or last cycle,
the start of the first wave in the last cycle.
That's like, man,
that's going to be insane upside momentum on
a lot of coins. You're going to see a lot
of stuff that's probably around
50 or sub 100
million hit the billion mark.
There's going to be a ton of tokens that
hit multiple billions. We've already
seen it in shit conditions.
I don't know. The conditions ahead are just
lining up to be crazy. The thing is, after that range, what we're seeing with DXY and what we know,
like, basically around the dollar, it's got a lot of downwards pressure on it with what's going on
on the macro side of things. If this thing loses 97, you're probably going to have another rally
on gold above the current high. And again, you've left a ton of liquidity above,
which is untouched for a squeeze.
If you get a sharp drop on the dollar,
which probably comes around one of these key dates,
either the FOMC when they do the rate projections,
or yeah, it's probably around then actually.
The dollar might have a sharp decline
to confirm that market structure break of 97
and gold likely rallies towards 4k
obviously it'll take time to get there or whatever but that'll mean that this range that we're seeing
or that we're having telegraphed by gold that we're still yet to fulfill for bitcoin it's just
a sideways range where alts go crazy and then at the end of that range btc takes the liquidity back
and puts in you know another rally following the gold uh 4k rally if it does go there.
So you're basically having sharp rally now, old season, liquidity gets poured back into
BTC, BTC leads for a massive higher high.
And then you have like a distributive top on BTC, which again can last like six months
plus, where it's incrementally putting in higher highs, deviations of the high, let's say like 225, 240, 265, 280, 300,
and then like that's the top,
where you're having true rotations out of Bitcoin
as the liquidity cycle comes to an end.
And they rotate out into ETH, altcoins, all that stuff,
where that will be a much stronger wave
than this altcoin wave that we're about to see.
Because again, there's too many catalysts for BTC
for it to be done here.
And for Bitcoin dominance to nuke to like 40%,
in my opinion, that won't happen
until the true liquidity point high,
which will be telegraphed by gold
going to its next higher high
and then forming its own cyclical top.
And then you'll have the BTC gold chart
be skewed in favor of BTC by a significant margin because it's still below all time highs, that chart.
So when that chart really gets deep into price discovery, as we've seen with every other cycle, that's when you can start making a claim of the Bitcoin cycle top because it's just a liquidity top.
Donnie, I think that also goes back to our stream on Sunday where we talked about other Forex pairs on Bitcoin, like the British pound.
GBP is still not above 100K on Bitcoin.
So still got a ways to go, man.
It still has a ways to go.
And Donnie, so what you're saying it's it's buckshot season bro get your rifles load
them up get ready set your aim that's going to be a lot of buckshots in the air man a lot of green
buckshot candles loading up and donnie have you have you seen like the moves in real time when ETH BTC gets moving it is so aggressive and that move down that
we saw on ETH USD uh back in Q1 was so aggressive that me I was a huge bear a massive bear on ETH
from like late December all the way until early April, I'm like, hang on, guys.
ETH is at $1,300, and now you have meme coin people saying,
be careful or it's lights out.
Be careful or it's lights out.
With the S&P and the McNASDAQ down 25 plus percent.
And then T-Bonds Tina had that space with uncle joe i just i i had to flip the
switch man i had to flip the switch and you know what's funny uh i got trolled yesterday by like
a few anon trader accounts they they were like oh it's time to unfollow anyone
that was uh bearish on eath and i'm like bro ETH still went down they took them
some screenshot of one uh I said something like ETH isn't gonna make an all-time high this year
it was it was a rage bait post and it was at 2k and I'm like prepare for lower and it still went
lower it's like being bearish on uh on BTC in August or September of 2022, we still went lower,
right?
It's,
it's all a matter of like switching your stance on the market at the right
time.
But all I can say is we're human,
bro.
We're all human.
Sometimes we make mistakes,
but it's incredible the velocity in which we reversed,
bro,
which is why we were both calling for a melt-up
because the aggressive move down just simply did not make sense.
And now it's time to turn cents into dollars
and then turn those dollars into bucks.
Exactly. That's it right there, bro.
Now, I think the gray area or
the the part where people get upset or maybe there's some validity to it is with like eth for
example it's fine to have been price bearish on eth because it was clearly underperforming right
and then it went lower and all that kind of stuff it's more so like the higher time frame view of
that um you know a lot of people were bagging on it saying that it's never going to do anything and it's
cooked and all this kind of stuff where it just didn't make sense because you know what I was
saying at the time the entire range it doesn't matter what was even happening in terms of price
action it was just the fact that it doesn't matter what happens with ETH on a price action perspective.
All that matters is BlackRock issued the ETF.
They're not going to let this thing fail.
When the time comes for conditions to be optimal to take risk,
they pump the chart, right?
Not saying BlackRock themselves, but powers that be, pump the chart.
They slap on a narrative.
They give it that use case that everyone was complaining about,
which we already knew was to do with stable coins way in advance before it actually became a narrative. They give it that use case that everyone was complaining about, which we already knew was to do with stablecoins way in advance
before it actually became a narrative.
And there you go.
You had the 1300 bottom.
A lot of people sold the bottom.
Boom, they melted up to 2700.
They start probing with these narratives of,
oh, it's actually pretty good for stablecoins, whatever.
It doesn't matter what the narrative is.
They'll slap it on top.
The conditions are optimal.
The candle comes in.
Everyone jumps on board.
And that's exactly what you had from the bottom.
And now it's at basically all-time highs.
Donnie, I remember when you, Matt, and Joe had a discussion about this specifically.
I'm not sure if it was either late November or early January.
And it was like a huge debate whether or not like the ETH ETF was a success
or if it's going to be a nothing burger and all that stuff.
And I mean, hey, it took the ETF about a year to really have Ethereum get the wind behind its sails.
But it's here, man.
And the next thing I really think it's going to be the Solana ETF, which is, dude, I think you're going to have an acceleration,
a massive, massive acceleration, man.
But the cycle is not over until others BTC is in price discovery.
So if you look at others BTC...
Go ahead.
I was just going to say something funny
because I'm starting to see this narrative start to resurface again.
And it's the narrative that mark my words this because
because the cycle is laying out in a way where it's going to go a lot higher in my view but
you're seeing the resurfacing of the narrative that hey man eath could potentially flip bitcoin
and when that narrative like first of all it like when that narrative actually does continue to get
hotter and hotter and hotter eath will will actually perform crazy well, right?
It can actually get, let's say, not too close in market cap, but it can really look like it's going to flip BTC and then that's the actual topic for the entire cycle.
Donnie, but we also have to be careful because your comment section has a huge, huge, huge indicator of where the market is gonna go remember that
guys that a few reply guys saying uh oh your comment section is a little bit too bullish we
might be topping here hey a taxi driver uh talk to me about xrp the cycle might top bro remember
that guys uber drivers now have the alpha on the market, which is honestly ridiculous, man.
And, you know, the more time goes on, Donnie, the more I think, like, dude, this is just early TradFi.
This is post-World War II markets.
This is the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones post-World War II if you want to talk about, like, how high you can actually go.
world war ii if you want to talk about like how high you can actually go um and just collectively
on where the where the market is right now we're barely where the nasdaq was valued going into
the late 90s which is uh really saying something uh the nasdaq composite which was an etf created
which was an ETF created in 1973 or 1975, somewhere along that line.
But yeah, I guess the crazy thing that I'm just seeing right now with BTC and ETH
is like the volume that ETH is pulling relative to Bitcoin.
Like here and there, it's been having more 24-hour volume than BTC, which is kind of crazy.
But yeah, I really think until that narrative gets super overheated,
the cycle's got legs, man.
It's got ruthless legs.
You're going to have people really calling for ETH to flip BTC, I feel like.
And obviously, we have now Tom Lee as the champion,
kind of the sailor of ETH,
which he can really push that narrative super hot.
Even if he doesn't believe it himself,
it's just pushing the narrative that gives it even more legs.
But yeah, it's just good for the whole market.
It's even good for BTC.
The higher ETH goes,
people do actually rotate out of things
that are lower in market cap
back into the leader at the end of the cycle.
And ultimately, it's just bullish for BTC in the long term as well.
All of these rotations are bullish for BTC in the end,
and then it comes back into these coins.
You just have to be good at kind of identifying those pivot points.
Let's go ahead and get some thoughts from Matt.
He hasn't been up here in a couple of weeks.
Matt, what's going on, man?
How are you feeling about ETH, man?
I know you were one of the individuals that were saying that ETH might top out,
at least locally, at 4K.
It's exceeded that.
I know you've been in this market way longer than all of us have,
but how are you feeling, man?
Are you getting early 2021 vibes, perhaps even spring of 2017 vibes given that yeah it's definitely
of the summer it's definitely 2021 vibes and so the eth topic i know we we talk a lot and
not trying to foot anyone out of their bags. But the point was that, look,
the easiest move for ETH
is to run it all the way back to all-time high.
Maybe that number for you is 4K or 4,500 or 5K,
but that's the easiest move,
to run it all the way back
to that previous all-time high multi-year resistance.
And then from there,
to me, it just made sense, like,
lock in some of those profits and wait for the rest of the bulls to push the last 5% or 10%
past 4,500 or past 5K. Make them prove it's a breakout and then long it again if you really
believe in it or, you know,
that's up to you. But like this, I think Donnie laid it out well. Like, yeah, ETH has run all the
way back to its previous all-time high, previous multi-year resistance. And now where's smart
money going? They're going to go out to Solana and they're going to do the exact same thing to
Solana. And they're going to go do the exact same thing to, I don't know, AVAX and ADA. And they're
going to keep moving farther out the risk curve because that's always the easiest move.
Let me grab a 3X here and a 4X here and another 3X here.
And they're just going to keep moving that money farther out the risk curve.
It's way harder to start making multiples once it's above all-time high in price discovery. And some of these coins,
they're not going to make much more
above their previous cycle all-time high.
And so, yeah, I don't have any insight or knowledge
if ETH will or won't, if Solana will or won't,
if AVAX will or won't.
So the easiest thing to do, the safest thing to do would be,
sure, run it all the way back to previous multi-year resistance,
then make the rest of the bull market push it above.
And then you can get back in.
What do you miss?
What do you miss?
What, 5%?
Maybe 10%?
After you just hashed in a 3X?
Like, you don't care.
We don't get out of bed for a five or ten percent move around here
uh so that was that was my quick point on on eath it's not about that i hate eath or that i'm some
big solana believer i don't know neither i'm just saying just we're just talking trading we're just
talking charts and uh speaking of trading and charts to me this and donnie i want i'd love to
get your opinion but i showed up in the nest This is saying fourth quarter blow off top on Bitcoin loud and clear.
This looks so obvious to me.
You're getting shorter consolidations and shallower corrections going all the way back
to the long one in 2024 that was boring.
Everyone did tears. the long one in 2024 that was boring everyone to tears but but you're getting the drawdowns
are getting smaller and the condol in the consolidations are getting quicker there's
only one way this ends and that's with just uh uh bitcoin price starts skipping uh over itself
just relentless green candles on weekly and then daily and i'm this says to me blow off top uh in
in q4 maybe that's uh late september or early october but you can't you can't get any at a
certain point you can't get any more parabolic unless you're doing loop-de-loops. So, yeah, I think, honestly,
I've been a relentless bull,
and you can vouch, Wabi,
I've been a relentless bull since January 2023
where I was saying the bears are making the same mistake
that the bulls were.
They're not letting the data dictate.
This is now the beginning of a bull market,
and you better be all in.
And that was January 2023.
And now I'm looking at this thing like I'm just looking at the trajectory and what we know Bitcoin treasury companies are doing.
They're just stacking leverage on leverage, selling debt on debt to push price higher.
debt to push price higher.
Whether we're talking Tom Lee's company or Sailor's company or David Bailey's company,
none of them actually have cash flows.
They're just finding new creative ways to sell their shares and sell their debt to push
price higher.
Well, that's great as long as we're in a steady bull market here. But look, at a certain point,
we're getting past organic buy pressure and organic demand. Does that mean that, oh, and then
as soon as we have a blow off top, it's just this immediate 50% or 75% bear market? No, not at all.
It could be just like Donnie said. Look at gold's chart. It had a 100% and 100-day blow-off top late last year into this year.
It didn't mean that gold immediately crashed afterwards. Gold is the same price it was six months ago after its blow-off parabolic run. So that could easily happen. You could have Bitcoin go, if the economy stays strong and job markets stay tough and
companies are still making money, Bitcoin could easily go into a parabolic run and a
blow off top in Q4 and then just more or less stay that price, as Donnie put, for half a
half a year a year easily could uh but i think right here like right now this it really feels
year, a year.
Easily could.
like the the late last months to make the best gains it really does because this can't
we're getting steeper and steeper with less and less drawdowns um Just this last week when everyone was getting super scared about,
oh my God, they revised jobs data. Maybe the labor market report for the last three months was
skewed. That was still barely a 10% correction, eight and a half, barely on bitcoin like the the corrections uh are just getting smaller and smaller and at a
certain point it um yeah well the this blow off top uh happens so anyway uh i i like donnie's
number i think you said what between 135 and 180 i i've been saying 150k by Christmas day. Uh, it's an easy, easy price to remember.
And I think it coincides a lot with, um, uh, with the Fibonacci's. So, uh, that's what I'm
looking for. Q4 is technically, Q4 technically starts, uh, beginning of September into, um,
beginning of September into, what is that, late, I guess, late December, right?
But yeah, so Q4 is, you know, several months, but September, October, yeah, I'm looking at that.
Paulus, what's going on bro welcome doing well doing well what's up guys um honestly matt i'm like 100 aligned with uh that as well right now um the only thing that would make me um change that outlook is if somehow we get a bit
more chop that can extend this a little bit further but i have a similar timeline i think uh i think
right now it's definitely just the looking at these charts and how fast things are starting to move now, it does kind of feel like we're going into a blow off top.
What I think might happen is if we do get it, there's a few factors at play as well that make me believe this.
So one, it's the treasury companies and just like all the froth that's building up in that.
One, it's the treasury companies and just like all the froth that's building up in that.
Two, I think the whole cutting interest rates is also going to play a factor here.
So I think that when Powell decides, if he decides to do it in September and he's like, everyone's been begging to cut these rates. I'm going to cut these rates right now.
I actually think it could create a bit of a sell the news event just for that alone.
And if he doesn't cut the rates in September, then in October or like right after,
Trump's going to go scorched earth and it's going to cause more disturbance
where they're going to start figuring out like
a way to get them out, blah, blah, blah. And then that could also be a trigger that causes
like a pullback. So I kind of feel like we're going to accelerate really quick over the coming
weeks. And I think, yeah, going into kind of end of September or around September into October, we could see like a blow off top happen around there.
If that happens, my base case is that we wouldn't have like a multi-year bear market or anything like that.
But I think maybe going into Q1, Q2 next year, we would be cooling off. And then maybe when the
new Fed chair comes in, that might be like another cycle that starts at that point.
So the only way I think I changed my outlook on that forecast is if we kind of cool off between
now and September, October somehow. but i just don't see that
happening with what's going on right now like it's just obvious that we are right now just
accelerating we're accelerating in eth this is going to trickle down down the stack we're going
to go further out of the risk curve and yeah that's just my personal outlook there but and i i'm the same i've been a mega bull for a long
time but it does start to fuel the other side of this is of course like yes we have this whole
debasement of currency and all this like um positive uh you know regulation and we know
that they're gonna have to loosen monetary policy and they're
going to have to print more money and all this stuff.
But I still think we're going to, like,
I actually think what it'll do is that maybe instead of having these longer
drawn out bear markets, that it'll be shorter,
shorter cycles and more volatility oh my bad bro i thought you were still speaking paulo spots but yeah yeah on check is about to
get absolutely fucking nuts dude oh yeah yeah especially on especially on soul dude
like yeah coinbase kraken but both of those exchanges have clearly made it their mission
to make the soul trenches absolutely lit dude they're not listing anything on eth they're not
listing anything on base i'm actually shocked that base hasn't listed ray i don't even think uh coinbase has
listed virtuals um but they they have they have toshi there for whatever reason but they won't
list like their top ai projects which is honestly kind of stupid but paul what are your thoughts uh
on on chain dude do you think um perhaps ai two? If you look at the Threadguy stream, not Threadguy, but I think Alon,
it was either on that stream or a recent stream that Alon did,
and he alluded to using a lot of the funds that Pump Fund has accrued
over the last 18 months to reignite AI season part two, man.
I know me and you you we rode things like
zerebro and a ton of other names as well zerebro was a fun ride dude that thing went from like
eight ten mil uh when it really started to get mind trend it ran up to almost a billion dude
yeah like who cares what happens afterwards because Because, like, dude, everything goes to zero against Bitcoin in time.
But, like, when altcoin seasonality plays out, even if it's just something local, like what occurred in Q4 of last year, or more specifically from July of 2023 to February of 2024, when others BTC rallied by, like, 40 like 40 or something like that the gains could be insane
you remember rollbit rlb yeah it went from like yeah dude rollbit was like 2022 wasn't it that
was like a long time in Q4 of 2023.
And that was a liquid 15x.
It wasn't an on-chain shitter.
It was a centralized exchange token.
Injective went from like three bucks to like 55 or 60 bucks, something like that.
So if we look at others, Robert's BTC, things things look like they're gonna heat up even more so than
they did back then and i think that's why like so many people have felt like this cycle has been
like a bummer or a letdown it's because dude the majority of the altcoin market hasn't had a chance
to rally against bitcoin in almost two years like. A significant rally where it's not just on-chain,
but broader market as well, where everything...
But remember, when did that same dynamic finally happen last cycle, Lobby?
So, Matt, I think that happened when...
Late 2020, early 2021, if we're being fair.
Yeah.
So, so in, in 2023, when others BTC started to rally, it started to really get its foot out the door once Powell paused the rates.
So if, if we want to look at an event that causes that.
But yeah, yeah, I hear what you're saying.
Yeah.
It's probably the end of quantitative
tightening it's not so much like oh powell cutting rates another time it's powell ending
quantitative tightening that is like the biggest thing in front of us that could actually induce
that mini blow off in my opinion man well i think now's a good time to also say that like, look,
with Bitcoin and possibly ETH about to hit price discovery,
now's the time to figure out what's your, I mean, only,
only you individuals know your portfolio.
Now's the time to figure out what's that price target that I'm looking for
this, this or that coin or this or that equity or this or that asset.
Maybe some of them you put a trailing stop on
because you just have no idea how high it could go,
but you don't want to like,
you know, you want to lock in that 3X, 5X, 10X
and not wake up a little too late
and realize you lost 50% of your gains.
So now before price literally starts skipping,
now's the time to figure out like what's your
trailing stop paul's you were gonna say something brother yeah for sure i mean um i do think on
chain is gonna get very very nuts um it's really interesting also to see just over the last weeks what like from the launch pad wars
now pumps volume started like kicking in pretty heavy over the last week or so
um couple on chain plays there that have done quite well uh they're also like from what i'm
understanding they're injecting uh their revenue back into the pump fund token.
And I think they're getting ready to kind of like, Alon kept saying on that stream with FedGuy that like their whole thing that they're focused on right now is just to provide liquidity to on on chain so i i think it's perfect timing with just everything going on and
eth going into price discovery soul looks great again um and everything just starting to like
move and and people just looking for more more plays on chain and what i kind of like right now though um versus let's say like an ai season
or when i look back i found that like it was very uh singular type of metas that were popping off
but now what i like is like you know you have for sure there will be some more ai stuff that will pop up but um you've got some memes you've got
some uh you know like actual good products that are seeing you know real pmf like um
i was talking to you uh you donnie yourself and and wabi uh the other day and I was mentioning Aerodrome. So like, I feel like it's a quite an interesting play.
Coinbase has opened up 1% of their users to on-chain right now.
And they're using Aerodrome for that liquidity and the swaps.
I'm looking at the volumes and they're just going straight up
and that's with one percent and so i'm looking at that chart and i was looking like into their
tokenomics they're they're buying back 30 of their revenues they have uh no vc unlocks or anything
like that so it's just like interesting that there's actually like a um good project out there
with like actual um pmf that that generate real revenues real volume and you've obviously got the
rest of the speculative market that's starting to heat up as well so there's a lot to kind of
uh pick from wherever you fuel, you know,
like you,
you have an edge and,
that's personally what I'm excited about.
Just have a nice basket of stuff that you gain high conviction in.
And,
I think there's going to be a shitload of opportunities over the coming
weeks.
Luke,
go ahead,
bro.
How are you guys doing?
Matt, I have a question for you.
Yeah, so you're still under the impression that we have the normal dwell off top.
I just want to get your thoughts on, do you think that the economy, do you think they're cutting into,
I'm pretty sure you don't think we're going into recession or anything but
you think that the broad global
market tops out
within a quarter
of them doing
like substantial
the first substantial easing
since
pre-COVID
you think that it tops out
in the beginning of that cycle?
Because, I mean, ISM under 50, and they haven't started the cutting cycle yet.
It just, it seems to me it might play out a little slower this time.
But I want to get your thoughts on that.
Because it seems like we're in
the beginning of the easing cycle yes but i think this is where in uh wabi was around for it um
wabi do you remember when they finally started cutting in the uh 2017 cycle yeah so they were they were hiking in the first half
of 2017 yep and then during the second half they paused and they also stopped
quantitative tightening and that's when you started seeing others BTC actually
move because ETH was obliterating most of the all coins up until
june of 2017. so so matt so matt you see it as a similar fractal yeah i've we've i've been comparing
this to 2017 for a couple years right robbie matt matt but one thing we do have to remember is that A couple of years, right, you remember? Like Cashflare, USI Tech,
and a lot of retail
money was in there. And I think at the
peak, BitConnect was worth
like 10 bill plus
in market cap. I think it was a top 10
token. But when did that fall
apart, if I remember?
January of 2018, the exact
day where ETH peaked out
at $1,400,
and then Bitcoin had that complacency shoulder at just below $18K.
But the thing is, the thing is, guys.
Wait, BitConnect was way later than that.
Nah, nah, nah, nah, dude.
BitConnect happened in January 2018, bro, like mid-January.
And I remembered, because that was my first time, like on that day, it was the first time where I moved out of Coinbase and sent my first deposit to another exchange.
I think it was KuCoin and then also Binance.
And the crazy part of it is, is that a couple of buddies of mine in the gym, a few of us went straight to crypto, but some of us went into stocks and stocks still sent
and melted face yeah all the way that great 2018 they sat all the way until august so so my thing
is my thing is this how the hell is how the hell is btc still gonna have those same kind of
corrections if the stock market keeps sending. Anytime we see the
stock market sending, you usually have a lag effect in crypto that gets shorter and shorter
and shorter. And you've seen this, Matt. In 2023, the lag was like a month and a half.
But we're watching the reason I brought up 2017 is because Bitcoin and crypto, it's not lagging
the stock market.
At this point, it's outpacing it.
We're front running the stock market.
You know, gold moved first and gold had its parabolic move and a bit of a blow off top
And a bit of a blow off top and has literally just been sideways for the last six months.
and has literally just been sideways for the last six months.
Bitcoin has been, as Donnie put earlier, absolutely tracing gold's move too.
It's been one of the best performers compared to any of the Mag7.
I think only Nvidia's had a stronger recovery since the tariffs crash.
recovery since the tariffs crash.
But like Bitcoin and maybe it's ETF flows or maybe it's all of these treasury companies,
but Bitcoin's price is absolutely crushing higher, going parabolic here.
Again, just look at the chart i shared up in the nest the consolidations are
getting smaller and excuse me the consolidations are getting quicker and the drawdowns are getting
smaller like it's only getting it's only climbing steeper and steeper so sure, the broader S&P 500 and the NASDAQ might still have a nice stair step into the holiday season and early 2026.
But Bitcoin might have had a blow off top months before that just because of the relentless buying pressure from all these different entities that we're listing.
you know, all these different entities that we're listing.
And again, it doesn't, but it doesn't mean if the economy's,
if the economy stays strong and we get a couple of cuts,
it doesn't mean Bitcoin has to crash on the backside of it.
It could just be a long sideways consolidation.
But these, these treasury companies, like they're, they're,
they're piling on debt on debt on debt and selling of shares and shares, pushing Bitcoin price higher.
But what's interesting, look at MicroStrategy.
MicroStrategy is now underperforming Bitcoin year to date.
They're buying all this Bitcoin, pushing Bitcoin price higher.
But Strategy's shares are now still the same price they were
when it had its blow off top from November 2024. It's now underperforming Bitcoin price
since New Year's. So it's kind of hard to explain in just a short number in a short time, but like
MicroStrategy, if its market cap doesn't keep increasing, if its market cap doesn't keep increasing if its share
price doesn't keep going up they can't make bigger you see what i'm saying they can't make bigger and
bigger bitcoin buys if their own market cap and their own share price isn't also increasing and
it's been sideways for now over half a year so and let's face it, like strategy is the biggest Bitcoin treasury
buyer out there. So again, like, look, ride this wave. It's a beautiful thing. This Bitcoin price
is going up only. But you can only you can only climb so steep in a parabolic run for so long.
Hey, Matt, you know what's kind of ironic?
During every cycle, there's always a figurehead.
And then towards that second half where the altcoins start to move
and low-cap tech stocks start to really move even harder,
you usually have like a Forbes magazine right um in the 2016-2017 cycle you had guys like
you usually have like a Forbes magazine, right?
Roger Ver right he was a big guy uh during the initial stages of 2017 but he's been around for
forever but um from what I remember Ver was like a huge figurehead and then that got passed down
to the young guy which was CZ and Arthur Hayes they had their magazine covers and then that got passed down to the young guy which was cz and arthur hayes they had
their magazine covers and all that stuff and the next cycle after that um it went to uh i think it
went from like novogratz and then it got passed down to like unfortunately it got passed down to
people who scammed the industry like sbf and docon and now this cycle you had the forbes
they had the forbes uh front cover with michael saylor and now you have it with vlad from robin
hood and that is actually huge because it's no longer crypto specific and you also have the
justin sun forbes but i think that was like last year or something. Matt, I just have one other question.
Sorry, I don't mean to jump over.
Yeah, you're good, man.
I was just looking at the ISM and Bitcoin,
at least for the last two cycles.
Basically, once the ISM breaks above 50,
Bitcoin has topped like around,
it's like eight months or a year after
I I know I'm just we can only look at so few cycles, but
Wait, I SM manufacturing
Yes. Yeah. Yeah, when when I said when I go look at Bitcoin price and ISM
once ISM breaks above 50, you can look and see the tops of the last two cycles happen when the ISM was above 58.
comparisons because quite frankly 70 percent of the u.s is a services economy and that can mean
everything from doordash to to apple services but 70 percent of the u.s economy is services
yeah i mean manufacturing is only 30 percent now ism surface services i thought you said ism
manufacturing no no services oh okay i misunderstood. Yeah, so if you just look at the two charts overlaid,
it's kind of like in the 2017 Bitcoin cycle,
ISM broke above 50 at the end of 2016 and then topped a year later.
Okay.
But where is it right now, I guess?
It hasn't even broke above 50.
From what I understand, basically, once it gets solidly above 50,
that's basically the cycle going into expansion.
I'm guessing you're looking at it right now.
What did it do in uh 2021 in 2021 once it broke above 50 so we had that dip that quick covet dip
and then ism ran to i mean that was a super super print cycle it went up to uh 64. but that it basically it broke
above 50 in may of 2020 and topped out at in march of 21. so 21 march 21.
March 21.
And then when you look at the 2017,
once it broke,
once the ISM broke above 50,
it broke above 50 at the end of 2016,
and then the cycle peak wasn't until a year later,
November.
Or December.
All right.
So it's just, I mean, yeah, there's the interesting, you're, you're, you're absolutely right.
Everything is, everything is connected.
It's a big, it's a big economy with that spider webs and touches all manner of thing. I just, I try to keep it real simple
and just look strictly at Bitcoin price
and okay, yeah, I'll look at, you know,
how's the US labor market?
Or is the rest of the S&P 500 and MAG7,
are they still beating their earnings?
But just looking at Bitcoin price,
these are like these Bitcoin whales and the bulls and the people that are buying are showing that every day in the Bitcoin price chart.
These are the people that are going to determine the next, call it, three to six months of where we go from here.
three to six months of where we go from here. And what they're telling you, just looking at our
chart, what they're telling you is they are buying hand over fist. They're not waiting.
They're not waiting for 30% corrections, 20% corrections, barely 10% corrections before they
slam the buy button and bid it up again. Like this is, it's only getting steeper and steeper. So
logically that just tells me like, unless, unless this administration surprises us all with some
sort of, uh, you know, onerous brand new worldwide tariff, or unless Jerome Powell has a stroke and
announces that he's raising interest rates, not lowering them. This says blow off top
all over it. It really does. Another interesting tidbit, if you pull up Bitcoin on your five-year
chart, if you go back to 2021, if you were a part of this cycle in 2021, look at the RSI underneath the five-year chart on Bitcoin.
We all pretended we didn't see it, but that was the biggest multi-month bearish divergence ever.
Call it beginning of 2021 into early 2022.
But we all pretended we didn't see it, but that was just a massive bearish divergence last cycle, looking at price above RSI.
We're seeing another massive multi-month bearish divergence right here in this cycle.
Yes, Bitcoin price is going up only.
Yes, it's getting steeper.
Yes, it's just getting absolutely frothy out there. But actually, RSI is saying the buy power underneath it all, the buying power in volume is getting less and less month after month. So like, eventually that rolls over. Anyway, it's just all these factors. They're all just pointing to one thing to It's like this price is going to be just blowing out the ceiling in the back half of this year.
And after that, as anyone's guess, we can all debate how much we'll consolidate or correct.
But, yeah, it's just screaming blow off top.
Yeah, it's just screaming blow off top.
Hey, Matt, you know the pie cycle top is right around 180,
which is where the 1618 is as well.
At that point, dude, I do think that is when we have a correction,
whether it's just a bunch of sideways or a quick bear.
But either way, dude, like I think just from from monetary policy, it gives us an extended leeway.
And what I mean by that is like sort of the same trend that we've been seeing the last few years.
A bunch of sideways followed by a nasty correction or a nasty correction that last a couple of weeks, man.
Ragsy, what's up? How are you? Welcome.
What's going on?
I'm excited. I'm so freaking excited.
I'm loving the conversation.
I'm just like every day since that last local bottom we had, I've been excited.
Like super bullish.
I think they're going to cut the rates in September.
I don't see how like they can't announce that.
And I just think Q4 is going to be amazing.
I think what some of the guys touched on is very interesting in regards to the spillover into 2026.
Because I think it's, it's very, you know, possible. I think we got to see how many
cuts they're anticipating and what they are, but it's looking like it will be,
you know, an extended bull run. And, um, yeah, I'm, I've been excited for ETH for a very,
very long time. And now it's finally starting to get momentum here.
I think that, oh, you know what was interesting today?
I've been following it is the bullish IPO.
You know, they did their IPO through the New York Stock Exchange.
So that's like a company, you know, that I've been watching for a while.
That's Peter Thiel's.
I think they're going to
do incredibly well. And I think you're going to see companies like that, like Coinbase Stock,
Bullish, and BlockXYZ do extremely well in Q4 if and when they announce the cuts.
Memes obviously are not cooked. I think people were scared back in January,
like after the whole Trump coin fiasco that Solana memes were cooked.
And then that was like the top of memes. Like, in my opinion, I've been saying this,
like, there's no way it's not cooked. It's never going to be cooked. It's the biggest draw for
retail. Um, you know, you have to think of like the average investor that doesn't know the crypto markets.
They always gravitate toward memes. It's the first place they go. I love my Ethereum meme
picks. I think they were smart and I'm still holding them. I've been DCing for two years.
Solana is not going to be coached.
And actually, I'd like to bring something out.
People have forgotten how high the ETH gas fees actually get when ETH's starting to pump.
So I went to DCA, one of my ETH picks today.
The gas fee was like $288.
And I had forgotten how expensive it is when ETH is moving.
So I was like, oh, forget this.
So it's like actually
kind of bullish for Solana because I'd rather gamble that in the trenches or something than
pay that freaking hefty gas fee to swap into ETH. But you'll see the top ETH memes that have
exchange listings. Those fees are already like kind of priced in or disguised. So the ones with
the, you know, big exchange listings,
it's not going to be an issue there. But for new projects, it's like kind of slipped my mind how expensive it actually is. And thank God I DCA'd before ETH started to pump because I don't know
if I want to pay a $500 gas fee on ETH. But, you know, I think that's a bullish case for base
as well. Everybody knows I'm very big on base. So, yeah, I'm really excited ultimately.
I think this is like the golden bull run.
I think like this is the bull run you had to be in.
And I think if you're in the audience and you're listening now or you just started paying attention or like I think there's still time to get your altcoin picks in.
I still think there's time to get your altcoin picks in I still think there's
time to get your long-term picks in but you're kind of running out of time because these things
like increase slowly you know five percent ten percent twenty percent and then you know you'll
be if you wait too long then it's like you're paying double you're paying like a two two hundred
percent premium on something you could have got a couple weeks ago.
So, you know, I'm somebody I think I position myself well.
And I bought all my picks on the exact bottom.
I called the exact bottom on April 8th of this year.
And I called the exact bottom in 2024.
So I'm sitting pretty comfortably because I'm up on everything that I bought as far as long-term plays and heavy bags.
But yeah, it's going to be an exciting cycle.
And if you thought 2024 was crazy, I think this Q4 is going to be nuts in regards to just an alt season.
And I think the memes are going to go crazy again.
And it's just a great time to be in crypto and um and i think i told i told
wabi you and uh donnie on your show thanks for having me on your show again on sunday it's so
much fun i think you guys are doing an amazing job um you know with the memes that you're working on
and uh i'm excited for everything truthfully
yeah ragsy that that was a great show we cooked there for about an hour and a half
but uh is there anything is there anything else that you guys want to want to talk about i'm
pretty much cooked for the day man um i want to save a lot of this energy for when eth is actually
like putting weekly closes above 5 000 i i think that's when things are going to get interesting.
Unironically, we're actually at that part
where we're actually following traditional cycles
where it's the high caps move first
and then you have that trickle down effect.
But Donnie, Matt, is there anything else
that you guys want to say before I close up shop here?
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