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Market Talk- BTC and stocks new highs this week!?Summer pump starting?
Recorded: June 9, 2025 Duration: 1:51:26Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts expressed bullish sentiments as Bitcoin approaches new highs, with expectations for further growth driven by macroeconomic indicators and strategic partnerships. The conversation highlighted the significance of Circle's IPO and the potential for an altcoin season, reflecting emerging trends in the crypto market.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Someone will lose, someone will last win, only the strong will survive.
Reach for the best you have within, there is no compromise.
You have to stand up and fight with telling James Lai.
Through the tears and the pain, still a glory will be.
You have a vision in sight, or turn down to the dance.
Be the best of the day. Yes! I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love, I miss my love to where you're bound all things come with time
we'll need a winner
to make our dreams come alive
we'll need a winner
so put yourself to the test
be your best song
yeah put yourself
too Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh
I'm the best of the best
Be the best you can
Be the best of the best
Be the best of the best
Be the best of the best
Be the best of the best
Be the best of the best
Be the best of the best
Be the best of the best
Be the best of the best
Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Be the best of the best Music what's up y'all hope everyone's doing okay um i can actually put some bass in my voice.
So I'm probably like 80%, 85% back.
But I hope you all enjoy the song, by the way.
The song is called Best of the Best,
and it's from this 80s movie called Best of the Best.
One of the greatest movies I've ever seen by the way uh really
motivational inspiration on all that stuff unlike most of the trash that's playing in theaters right
now which which is meant to scare you or make you feel weak but uh nonetheless thank you all so much
for joining whether you're listening live or to the recording um man equity markets have just been purely PVE.
Circle just seems to rip face.
I'm going to go ahead and say this on this show.
I'm not sure if I said it on Friday, but I think if you missed hood over the last 12 months, I think a pretty good catch up trade is circle.
months, I think a pretty good catch-up trade is Circle. So a good analogy that I have is
if you're bullish on the world's largest market maker, which is Citadel Securities,
then your bet on Hood becoming a future MAG7 stock, that would be your bet right that would be your bet and if you're bullish on Larry
Frankenstein who's the CEO of BlackRock and you're bullish on them owning more assets and
having more of a not more of a monopoly across the digital asset industry circles probably a pretty
good bet especially given how far apart the market cap between circle and hood really is
and it's kind of odd that in crypto there is no specific altcoin that actually lets you benefit
from more stable coin usage maker sucks the price action on that thing has always been pretty subpar.
Aave, I don't really know if a thesis of some product having TVL is going to cause a bunch of boomers to buy the token.
Because why would they buy Aave when they can just buy a stock that isn't dependent on someone using a protocol or not right but nonetheless s&p made a new high queues made
a new high hood on a little bit of a pullback circle just has just practically been up only
since uh they ipo'd last week i think if you manage to get into the IPO, which Robin had, it has this nice
feature where you're actually able to participate in these IPOs, you're actually up like 400%.
But if you bought on open market after that, I think you're up like close to 30%.
Outside of that, BTC pressing up against range highs, ETHath i think eath is at mid range right now mid close to range high um soul has still been
lackluster um we we're still seeing continued out performance on hype relative to soul
there's a lot of market share that that hype has to gain from soul as an l1 token but um
hype has to gain from seoul as an l1 token but um still nothing on chain as far as hype is concerned
or at least i haven't personally seen it but um we do have cpi on wednesday and we have fomc next
week um as we've seen over the last couple of years um depending on what the trend is we do have that next wave of volatility after these events and
that's going to be something to watch out for specifically fomc i think that's usually the
event that big money typically watches out for to get the pump on the coin but still very much so um
a btc led market a lot of good things on base have just continued to rip
face kta reached another all-time high yesterday that's a ticker that we've been talking here on
this show for about two months um it's up like 50x and we're not talking micro cap shooters here
we're talking something that has gone from you know just under 10 mil
market cap uh to almost a billion in market cap that is a true escape velocity play and you know
shout out to prometheus man shout out to prometheus and there's something about trailing a trade
every single week and following the trade and giving updates on the trade compared to just
shouting out a ticker one time and then just fucking off and all of a sudden someone comes
back that person comes back and says i told you so that's that that's that's just that's just
larping but shout out to prometheus man that that that is a trade that comes only once a cycle, once, twice, maybe three times a cycle.
You're talking about something that was a fair launch, no sniped, bundled shit where like 10 people own 80% of the supply.
And tokenomics, we're very transparent.
Team doesn't get any tokens for three years.
But yeah, very, very, very few tickers like that come per cycle.
So that's what I have to say about that.
Here, joined by Donnie, Ragsy, Paulos.
Again, we have CP on Wednesday.
Kind of think it's a nothing burger at this point.
To be frank, we've been crushing expectations for some time when it comes to CPI.
I think truflation data that we've been getting over the last few months is probably going to resolve in a print that's at 2% for core, maybe even a little bit below 2%.
And I think that CPI trade is finally over after
four years. No one cared about CPI until four years ago in 2021 when Jerome Powell said that
inflation was transitory in July of 2021. People remember that. and then every month it was just tpi this tpi that blah blah blah blah blah
and uh i feel like the book on fomc is about to close as well um powell only has drone powell
only has 10 months left on his term and it's probably going to get a bit dovish going into
not going into q3 but probably going into Q4.
But nonetheless,
guys,
I want to thank you all so much for coming here.
I got Donnie up here,
got Matt,
Palos and Ragsy.
It's going to be a great show.
Show's recorded as always.
I feel pretty decent that my health is doing a lot better than it was seven
days ago.
I remember I was trying to do this show on Thursday and Friday,
and every so often, whenever I would go on mute,
I would just start to cough up a lung,
but I haven't really done much coughing over the last 24 hours.
Thank God. Thank God.
It's by the grace of God that I'm here with you guys talking about markets.
But before we get started, guys, before we officially cook and rant and banter about all things markets,
if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space, you guys already know how to do that.
Click the spaces tab, all that jazz.
And once you guys do that, you'll see a little link above that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
Go ahead and smash up the like button hit that retweet
button there's almost 300 of you guys in here and great way to start start off the show great way to
start off the week once you guys hit that like button hit that repost button there's going to
be something pretty cool that happens and you're going to say man thank goodness i listened to wabi i hit that like
button hit that repost button and now my my coins my bags are shooting up 30 every other day because
i smashed up the like button and i smashed up the repost and retweet button for the algorithm
man it feels so good to the support market talk anyways guys thank you guys so much
for coming up here um it's gonna be great to discuss markets i'll pass it on over to donnie
as i usually do man donnie what's going on brother how are you um you know it seems like
we're about to get into uh we're about to get into that mode where we're going to see what the summer has for us, right?
Typically, that first half of June kind of gives us a hint of how the summer is going to play out, right?
Last summer, first half of June, we saw things like Giga starting to go up like crazy.
We saw Retardio break out.
And so the market kind of knew, all right, Seoul is the place to be. go up like crazy. We saw Retardio break out. The market
knew, all right, Seoul is the place
to be. Now, the
first half of this month,
we're seeing how base is probably
going to be the place to be.
Not much is happening on
Seoul. Then in 2023,
we saw ETH Mainnet
be the place to be.
Rollbit migrated over from Seoul to ETH.
Then we had things like Unibot doing some insane numbers on ETH.
So history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes, right?
What's up, man? Thanks for joining me.
It's going to be a great show, man.
Hey, bro. I hope you had a good weekend.
Man, what a day to wake up.
I basically got no sleep last night because you know during uh late last night uh in my time zone i just saw
btc crossing that key level of 107k and i just knew when i woke up it was just going to be way
higher that was like a very big uh level to cross and you know now that we've crossed it honestly
right now we're at like pretty much borderline on 108.9 which is the true line in the sand for me to
essentially cook all the bears completely i think if you cross that significantly
you're probably headed to at least 112k pretty quickly.
But more so, I think you rotate all the way to 120k.
And that's where you start the rally to essentially break out of this quote-unquote range
from the recent high we had at 110k or whatever,
109 to the 74k low.
I think this could be it.
So yeah, it was basically just a leverage flush before resuming
higher. And we're getting that confirmation now. I know we get a lot of consistent similar viewers
in the space. I'll just share an old chart of basically the setup. And then I'll discuss kind
of where I think it hits from here and how so. But yeah, it was basically just the chart
that I shared in the nest.
The entire rally from the low
was essentially a sidelining event
where most participants were waiting for a pullback
to get in where you actually never got that pullback.
You just kept getting priced out
with every leg very sharply, right?
So when we finally broke the key level of 99.5k, we had one more
range formation. And then we started trending towards the highs and a lot of late longs started
to step in. And you had a little bit of excitement around those highs. And we also had a plus one
confluence with James Wynn leverage longing like half a billion at the top, which, you know, that basically
indicated that, okay, we're a bit overextended, we're not going to get the breakout just now.
And we're going to pull back for a real pullback this time instead of just, you know,
chop sideways and push higher. So where was that level on the chart where, you know, most of these
late longs came in, it was around that 99.5k level, but it was basically the bottom of that prior
range wick low, which was 100.7k. And yeah, we actually just took that low and fully reversed.
So a lot of people were saying that that low is like, they don't like the low because XYZ and
this and that. But if the point of that move was to flush, it was just a technical correction to flush late longs
and continue the macro uptrend,
because again, the backdrop is extremely bullish.
Like I've covered it consistently with threads,
long posts, you name it.
Like the setup that we have right now
in the broader market from this point on
for the next six to 18 months is insanely bullish so there is no reason
for you to go to these lower levels if this is just a technical pullback to clean up that leverage
and if our thesis is correct on you know the backdrop being as bullish as it is that way. So yeah, I think the job was done with that move
at 100.7K.
And now I think because of how much of a buyback
we've had from those levels,
that that low is more likely in than not in.
Now, I'll just share this other chart as well.
This is basically BTC over gold
with M2, global M2 laid over gold.
And I was kind of just gauging where we are in the rally, kind of comparing it to gold when
gold was rallying off the M2 expansion. And actually, gold kind of sometimes front runs
M2 and then M2 kind of catches up.
It's basically just a hedge against monetary expansion. You typically see central banks loading up gold and then you see follow through on kind
of this global liquidity expansion, right?
So yeah, gold trades very cleanly off of global liquidity increasing.
You can see it trails it like very nicely and very smoothly. It's a much larger asset than btc and it just trades a little bit differently
but you know basing it off where the gold rally had started and how long we had been rallying it
kind of felt like where i circled there was exactly where we are and the next expansion
higher is probably imminent again the backdrop is extremely bullish. I've covered it
many times. I'm not going to go over it again because it's just super long to go over with the
Trump, the big beautiful bill, all the other stuff. It's all lining up for them to create this risk on
pivot for this pro-growth, pro-market agenda, which they need to start now. And the market is slowly,
incrementally confirming that. And as market is slowly, incrementally confirming
that. And as that incremental confirmation plays out, people are just going to capitulate long.
It's literally just that simple. So yeah, with this local level break on BTC, it kind of looks
like that circle on the chart is playing out. And what follows is just the big expansion to the
upside. Now with BTCc comparing it to gold it typically
moves very aggressively instead of gradually like how gold has you can see on gold's chart it kind
of just like slowly trickles up has some little corrections keeps trickling up btc is very
explosive on either side if it's going down it's very explosive if it's going up it's very explosive
so it also tends to overperform when it's in price discovery.
So I'm expecting an even bigger expansion.
If you do break that 112K high, you're probably headed towards 120, 130 in one leg.
So yeah, hopefully we get that within like, I would say it's possible to get it this week.
And we'll see.
Again, we do have the FOMC, which I think is honestly nothing to be fair.
I made a post recently kind of discussing how your attention should be on what the treasury
is doing because they've made it clear that not that the Fed is irrelevant, but they're going to
juice the market by any means necessary to deliver their pro-growth agenda. So most of the stimulus
is coming out of the treasury,
right? So there's no point focusing on the Fed because they're going to help, you know,
deliver that goal. Down the line, we can worry about the Fed for, you know, a multitude of
other reasons. But for now, that's kind of the main playbook. So yeah, that's basically where
we're at with BTC. And, you know, we have some old season triggers that I mentioned a while back,
which if those do connect, which they are going to connect,
you're going to see everything in this market get bid.
Literally everything.
Again, you're going to see rugged charts,
things you thought were cooked.
Nothing is cooked when you get that sort of environment
unfolding in the market,
which is basically 0.03 on ETH BTC, below 58% on Bitcoin dominance, and above 130k on BTC,
and above 3400 on ETH. Once all those three connect, which I think it can happen before
September based off of all this macro analysis, then you're due for a very big
alt run, a quote unquote alt season. And we got a glimpse of it off the low when ETH BTC pumped 50%.
You saw absolutely every single ticker get bid in a big way, right? 5 to 15x off the low.
And that was without even much of a dip on Bitcoin dominance.
So let's see how it all unfolds. I think it looks really good.
And again, these policymakers, the US government, the Fed, they control where this market ultimately
goes.
So they're telling you accelerate.
You can crunch all the numbers of their plans and what it means for risk assets.
The broader macro picture for the next 5 to
15 years is extremely bullish hard assets based off of this new pivot. So there's absolutely no
reason to be bearish from this point on. But yeah, the market will get its incremental confirmation.
The last two things that I'm really looking at is the deal between China and US. Again,
they had this urgent meeting, which was, I think, today.
We'll see. We'll get the result out of that soon, I would think.
If that policy noise is cleared out and that bill gets signed,
there is literally zero reason for market participants to not be allocated to risk.
And I think that's where you get the big move higher.
So again, it's all tied around these summer months,
June, July, somewhere in there. And yeah, that's where the fun starts. So I'm just excited. I'm
really excited to see these charts playing out. Even BTC right now, I think it's like 109.2.
uh 0.2 so crazy i could keep going man i could go for another hour but
yeah it's looking good even have miners ripping off the lows like everything is lining up
well man um i pass it over to matt matt what are your thoughts man especially
with circle ipoing and doing quite well over the last few trading sessions man Hey, thanks for having me up, Wobby.
Yeah, I think that is incredibly bullish for the next back half of 2025.
I'm not going to repeat everything that Donnie said, but if we just zoom out, and I shared
up in the nest, if we zoom out, we've basically flipped our previous all-time high
into support. And we are on the cusp of... What are we like? Right now, if the weekly candle closed,
this would be the highest weekly candle in Bitcoin's history. And we're basically 2% away from putting in the highest daily close
in a new all-time high in Bitcoin history. So again, yeah, there's just really no
reason to be bearish, period. We're about to go into price discovery, zero gravity.
zero gravity. And we know when Bitcoin gets on these runs, we know from fall and spring
2023, 2024, we know from fall 2024, just back around after the elections, we know when Bitcoin
gets on these runs, it's just week after week after week of massive green candle.
And your time to get in was the 200 days of consolidation prior.
People have been complaining about like, wow, there's just been no entry.
There's just been no entry.
Well, you had to find the conviction, right? You had to finally find your buy button back at $90,000, $80,000, $75,000. Like any of
those prices look really good back in the winter and spring right now, right? But so, I mean,
truly at this point, the only move is to just long to break uh, again, I won't repeat all the macro points that Donnie brought
up and, and I like to go on and on about earnings, uh, how nine out of 10 of the $1 trillion,
uh, market cap companies all beat earnings, uh, over 75% of the S and P 500 all beat earnings,
you know, labor markets, good CPI inflations back to 2021 levels.
Hey Matt, let me ask you a question.
All that stuff.
Let me ask you a question, man.
Yeah.
If someone missed out on hood over the last 12 months,
do you think Circle can be a good catch-up trade?
Circle has every single thing that is bullish crypto.
Like if you're bullish on crypto as a whole, like just crypto,
why would I buy MSTR?
Why wouldn't I buy Circle?
I wouldn't buy MSTR.
Yeah, if you missed, but I think you missed Circle too.
Like you said, you either buy it in the pre-listing on Robinhood or buy it right at IPO launch earlier.
At this point, if you want to skate to where the puck is going to be,
I think it's when Jack Mahler's company, 21 Capital, goes public.
That might be coming up over in the summer here.
That might be coming up over in the summer here.
When his company goes public, he'll instantly be, I want to say, second biggest Bitcoin bags.
And the reason why it's interesting to me is because if you like Circle, Wabi, then Tether is the big daddy. Tether's cash flow is backing 21 Capital. This is the entity on the
NASDAQ that Tether has decided, you know what, we can't publicly list ourselves because we're
basically an international Euro bank. We'll never be able to list on u.s soil but the next best thing
is what if we just own a massive majority share of a company that does nothing except uh buy and
hodl bitcoin and we can point our cash flow at it that's uh 21 capital so like if you like circle
then you gotta love tether and tether is betting behind
21 capital so that's where i would that's where i would say to be matt but circle um has blackrock
as a majority shareholder like what what's the what what exactly is it just because tether backs
up a lot of coins too right but but if but if that's your but if so if that's your goal
i would rather re-long robin hood because uh uh you know all the best blue chips and a
shitload of shit coins and you can get bitcoin and you can like you can do all that on robin
hood as well they've got more total addressable market you know circle is kind of a one-trick pony, and they're kind of stuck jurisdictionally.
Like, Tether can go play in a lot more international markets than Circle will ever be able to,
just because they're listed in the U.S. and they have to play nicely with the SEC, even in today's SEC standards.
Tether doesn't have those restrictions. Tether doesn't have those restrictions.
Tether doesn't have those guardrails.
Tether can be anywhere and deal with anyone they want to deal with,
and maybe once in a while they get the CIA that says, hey, freeze that wallet.
But that's kind of a nothing burger. Like, yeah, truly, five years from now, ten years from now,
if you ask me who would win, Tether or USDC Circle, I bet Tether is.
Just because they can play in more places across the world.
And what does 21Cap do?
That's Jack Mahler's company that he's bringing out via SPAC that's the one that has it's backed it's backed by tether and um
uh howard lutnik's company i'm blanking on the name um soft bank as well um they got
yeah oh frank uh is it um damn it that's gonna bother me but um yeah they, they're trying to do the Sailor playbook, but while Sailor doesn't have
any cash flow, they're using Tether cash flow and pointing it at 21 Capital. So it's interesting.
It's very interesting. They might be doing Sailor's Playbook even better than he could.
So it's indirect exposure to Tether, right?
I would say it's almost direct exposure because not only is Tether seeding 21 Capital with their initial $40,000 or $44,000 Bitcoin, they're also the largest shareholder of 21 Capital.
And they're promising to keep pointing Bitcoin for shares into the future, but effectively always getting best price.
If you've been paying attention to Tether, I mean, they're one of the most profitable companies on the planet.
nothing except give dollar access to emerging markets that can't find easy access to U.S. banks.
They give them dollars and then buy treasuries on the back end and then just keep making a profit
off of the interest. It's free money to them with little to no risk. And it's brilliant. And then not only do they get to play all across the
world, but then they get to enjoy US capital markets by just seeding Bitcoin to 21 Capital.
And it's 21 Capital that has to play nice with the SEC and follow all the rules that MicroStrategy has to also follow.
But Tether can keep doing their thing internationally.
So anyway, long story short, I didn't want to turn this into a 21 Capital shill.
They're interesting to me.
I don't hold any shares of their SPAC,
but I might be very interested when they do go public.
What's up, Mike?
I saw your request, brother.
How are you?
Yeah, I came up to tell Matt it's Cantor Fitzgerald.
Ah, thank you.
I was blanking on the name, and I'm away from the computer.
Ludnick's firm, and obviously they're deep in bed with Tether.
They're the kind of firm that legitimized Tether by holding
tether by holding and sort of validating the treasury holdings because the big criticism
and sort of validating the Treasury holdings,
on tether over the last call it five to seven years is for the same reasons that affected
everyone else in the crypto ecosystem there weren't a lot of good ways to generate yield
right and remember we were in a zero percent yield world for a long time all the way up until
kind of late uh 21 early 22 when the fed started to
raise rates and effectively crashed u.s tech stocks and crashed crypto paradoxically that
that wiped out a bunch of the people that were speculating like the the uh three arrows of the
world and the celsius and the block flies tether was doing business with those guys too but because there was no redemption mechanism to basically call home the dollars right because nobody once
they buy tether they don't want their dollars back because they just want to go between crypto
assets right they want to go from bitcoin to solana to ethereum back to tether and very rarely does
someone who has tether say well i want to go all the way back to dollars and. And very rarely does someone who has Tether say, well, I want to go all the way
back to dollars. And so there was no call. There was no margin call on Tether like there were on
a bunch of other folks that were borrowing money in the ecosystem, many of which Tether was doing
business with. But they got away with that during that period because there was sort of no redemption
mechanism on those dollars what's happened since
though is the fed raised rates and all of a sudden as matt said tether became one of the most
profitable businesses in the world and they managed to suddenly find all of the missing capital right
like for years they couldn't do an audit for years that you couldn't figure out what tether actually
held they were unwilling to disclose it. They had really tough banking relationships.
Some of it probably wasn't their fault. Some of it probably was. But when you net it all out,
Tether is the last stablecoin standing that got to scale other than Circle. And Circle was hampered by all of the regulatory hurdles that it had to jump through in order to be valid.
Think about Gemini versus Coinbase like or gemini versus other
exchanges gemini because they were based in new york had to follow new york regulations and that
actually preempted them from competing earlier on they would have been a much bigger exchange if
they hadn't tried to be so regulatory uh compliant and so it turns out like looking backwards
the companies that survived that didn't blow up, like Binance and Tether, that
basically broke every single possible regulation globally you could break, but never broke
completely, that never failed, that never had a margin call that wiped them out.
They're the biggest companies in the ecosystem, whereas companies that tried to be regulatorily
compliant, like Circle, like Geminiini are much smaller on a relative basis.
And, you know, that's just the nature of the beast. But I think to Matt's point, there's
Cantor Equity Partners, CEP, which is going to become 21 Capital, is just one of like several
dozen companies that are in the process of doing mergers, doing SPACs, doing all kinds
of different machinations to put themselves in position to buy a lot of Bitcoin.
And the most recent analysis I saw over the last 24 hours shows that the sum total of
the purchasing power of those entities, just the ones that have been announced so far,
would make them at least half as big as all of the dollars that
have flown into the ETF so far. So if you think about the money that effectively moved Bitcoin
from the 30s to the hundreds, at least half of that capital that propelled that type of return
from those levels is still coming into the market today. And yet I look around the market and I still see people who
don't understand that we're heading to 150, 200, 250K Bitcoin. And probably sooner than later,
I mean, we're at 109.5 last time I just peeked at it. And again, there's half as much has gone
into the ETF so far that's still coming and you know that this
is a highly reflective flywheel where if Bitcoin goes to 120 then the ETF flows are actually going
to increase too right which will also increase the interest that people have in Bitcoin treasury
companies so you'll have more money coming into micro strategy more money coming into meta planet
21 capital etc and it's a self-fulfilling prophecy,
of course, until it stops, right? But we're in the process right now between
a deep depression mindset in April and May of this year to pure euphoria, which again,
hasn't happened yet, not this cycle at least, but is likely to happen before the end of the cycle. And so I
think we're in that transition period between unusually depressed conditions a few months ago
to probably later this year or 2026, highly euphoric conditions. And of course, the price
will validate that at different levels. But it's a wonderful time to be in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
It's a wonderful time to be long.
I'm really long Bitcoin.
I'm really long the ETFs.
I'm really long August IBIT options, the position I put on over the last couple months.
Those things, when Bitcoin starts to move, the out-of-the-money IBIT options just start ripping.
And then as everybody who's followed me for a while knows, I'm super long the infrastructure players, particularly the ones that straddle Bitcoin and AI, because I believe Bitcoin and AI are the two most important megatrends in the history of human life on the planet. Obviously, we needed the printing press. We needed the seed drill. We needed the combustion engine, pasteurization, telephones, televisions, radios, communication equipment,
et cetera, vaccines.
We needed all those things to get civilization to this point.
But the technology stacks we're building on now are highly exponential in nature, such
that they compound on top of the existing advantages.
And so that's why Bitcoin and AI are so powerful.
They're built on the rails of the internet.
The internet did not have the internet to distribute itself.
It had to distribute itself much more in an analog fashion,
whereas AI and Bitcoin can literally self-propagate themselves
and compound themselves on top of each other.
And in fact, they are doing that at the energy layer.
They're incentivizing huge build-out of large-scale physical infrastructure
and energy
that's needed to provide the compute,
you know, via NVIDIA chips and Bitmain chips, et cetera,
which are actually providing the compute
that are driving these technological super trends.
So we're right in the middle of it now.
If you're young and you're like looking at charts
and looking at squiggles and following influencers,
talking about Bitcoin dominance and trying to short and trying to be cute and be in bitcoin at 85 and out at 76 and
whatever i'm just telling you you're going to kick yourself so hard in five or ten years you're going
to look back and say that was the most obvious set of megatrends in the history of human life
on this planet and i was literally literally twiddling my thumbs, listening to Twitter spaces
and selling in and out of Bitcoin on margin
instead of just buying and holding.
It'll be literally the biggest mistake
that most people in these spaces,
most people on X will have to be forced to admit to
over the next decade.
I'm sad to say, right,
because it's terrible that people will miss out on that.
But we're going through that right now. Now is the time to be long, should be as long as possible. And you
should be willing to hold as long as possible. That's how you win. Mike, are you? I heard you
list everything that you you own. I didn't hear any of the Bitcoin treasury companies. I was curious, I'm very interested in
21 Capital just because they're going to have the tether cash flow as a wind beat behind their
sales. Are you similarly interested in them? Or to me, it's a differentiator that MetaPlanet,
Strategy, Nakamoto, all the others don't have. None of these others actually have a cash-flowing operating business that's not de minimis, except, interestingly, 21 Capital, potentially. What are your thoughts? Business right? I think he's rolling in the Bitcoin conference, which I don't go to I don't particularly like it
But I think it generates a lot of cash
You know micro strategies business relative to its Bitcoin holders is quite small. That's correct
Similar scientific has a real
Medical device type of business attached to it. I just I'm not sure that matters, right? Like, I'm not sure that that's the
most important factor. The short answer to your question is, yes, I do own MicroStrategy. I've
owned MicroStrategy for a long time. And I, and I, oh, okay. I didn't, I didn't hear you list them.
The last time I sold MicroStrategy was the week before Thanksgiving last year. And I was doing
spaces that whole month talking about how things were getting a little bit overheated and that micro strategy was signaling the imminent uh you know rise in bitcoin to 200
or 300k and if that didn't happen then I thought there would be some sort of pullback and so I was
trimming I started trimming way or way too early right this is the case if you have a systematic
strategy for reducing positions you're always going to sell a little bit too early
but hopefully that means you also get good prices on the way out and like my best price on the way out was 535 pre-market
the thursday morning before thanksgiving last year i still remember it vividly because like
the night before i did a space and i think it closed around 500 and it opened up the next day
at like 535 peaked at 542 and within hours of open, it was back down in the 380s, 390s.
That was that kind of whipsaw day in microstrategy that I think got a lot of people's attention.
But I've been interested in microstrategy before anyone in these spaces was talking about it, right?
And I had a very large position coming into this cycle, which is part of why I started trimming it earlier than
most people, because I was up 17x just on spot, right, on one point. I never bought options
on MicroStrategy. So I thought MicroStrategy was highly differentiated at the beginning of
cycle, right? So like going back to December of 22, January of 23, when I talked about this market,
I said you should own Coinbase, I said you should own MicroStrategy, I said you should own all the miners, you should own Bitcoin,. I said, you should own MicroStrategy. I said, you should own all the miners. You should own Bitcoin. And I said,
you can even own Ethereum and Solana, right? And in retrospect, those have all worked fine,
right? As long as you didn't chase them after they ran. And what I saw happening in Q3, Q4 last year,
because MicroStrategy had outperformed Bitcoin and the miners so substantially that you saw a
lot of capital chasing in at the very end and so now you have a bunch of
so just muted mike cut off guys yeah he cut off man we're absolutely ripping.
What's ripping? Yeah, when did we get to 110?
Bro.
Bears are so cooked.
Yeah.
Joyful June, baby.
Might probably got a call.
But yeah, I mean, it's a very interesting space now out there.
And I think it was last week.
I can't remember if we were talking about it,
but I am fully convinced that these Bitcoin treasury companies,
and we haven't even seen the end of them.
There's only going to be more, not less.
But I'm fully convinced these Bitcoin treasury companies
are going to give us a blow off top this cycle.
We definitely had a round of top last cycle we definitely had a rounded top last cycle everyone remembers 2021 technically twice but uh no this cycle i think
we're going to have a we're going to have a blow off top in bitcoin um just because of that fly
wheel that mike's talking about as bitcoin price rises then the value of these companies rise. They're able to leverage up even bigger size,
more interest, et cetera, et cetera.
It feeds on itself.
Eventually, they push price past organic buying
and organic demand and we'll have a proper blow off top.
It'll be exciting.
It'll be fun to watch and beautiful to see,
but bookmark this
yeah this is this is the rally right here uh this is the rally right here that's way too
much upside from that liquidity flush that's huge if you're sidelined here god can only save you that's bad
I wonder what's
gonna happen with hype here
because around $40
there was a massive sell
wall of I think
last I saw there was like 17
18 million of selling
pressure around there which is
probably the highest I've seen to be
honest in terms of uh a sell wall on hype so i'm curious if it's going to be able to chew through
that uh with what's happening on btc right now yeah the chart the chart looks bullish i'm looking
at it right now that second airdrop is going to be pretty nice man if if no if you're not trading on hyper liquid um should probably do so because
in six months you'll get a great airdrop and the good thing about hyper liquid is that it's not
dependent on stupid stuff like how many likes and retweets uh your posts get like things like kaido and all that other yap stuff it's really
annoying it's kind of cringe and it's very stupid to be honest i think hype is gonna go
so much higher than even the fair value just because um before hype came out if we just like go like look back a little bit
the meme coin like mania that we had was basically um going against all the utility and like
vc backed coins and all that kind of stuff then hype comes out does a proper fair launch rewards the community biggest
airdrop in history um community owns it 97 of the revenue gets goes back into the protocol like
just completely flips everything on its head and on top of it they actually have pmf so it's like you you have like one of the best products in crypto
in in probably since you know solana came out and has the chance you've got the perp side and
the l1 side which also becomes kind of hard to value and we we know that L1s are, like, if you look at, like, the value of these L1s,
like, the main ones, there's a premium just because they're L1s.
Like, even if you're trying to, like, look at revenue to how much these networks are worth,
it's pretty crazy, right?
And the thing is, like, since hype, there hasn't even been anything remotely close. So the reason I think it's going to go a lot higher than people think is just because there isn't, there's still, probably hype will inspire other founders that are going to come, especially if we get this crazy move up in BTC now, it's going to put a lot more attention back into crypto and
a lot of high quality founders that eventually will find their way. So maybe some of these guys
will start to kind of like take that as a playbook and start like building higher quality launches.
But for now, there still isn't really that much out there. So liquidity is just going to like flow into hyperliquid.
It's going to suck basically liquidity from pretty much anything out there from the alt coin space and the L1s and stuff like that.
So as long as BTC keeps trending up, I think hype will uh keep trending up at a higher rate and it'll probably
just hit some kind of blow off top at some point at the top of this cycle so that's my thesis on
it um and there's still so much more catalyst to come it's still so early that like it's going to be interesting everything's going to go up legit everything
i think the reason why like hyper liquid remains at elevated levels is because there's actually
something to do after the airdrop you look at all these other ones that had airdrops
all these other ones that had airdrops like bera eigenlayer all that other trash
after the airdrop all the chain metrics went to zero there was more outflows than inflows
so yeah you're you're right about that all those chains were like trying to put like some
shitty memes on on these chains to to try to get people on the chain.
Hyperliquid doesn't need to do that.
They have the best product and actually a product that, especially over the chop,
I think a lot of people that couldn't trade on-chain and all that,
a lot of people just switched to perps because you could trade these majors with leverage
and still get decent returns
on on solid trades and you also don't have the risk of some neat dumping like 20% of the supply
in one clip on chain is actually like it's gotten more PvP it It's a graveyard, man.
It's a graveyard.
And that's why I see a lot of the OG AI soul bros.
They pivoted to Hyperliquid in December.
Does anyone else have anything to to say by the way like anything else that they
want to throw out there we've been going for about an hour now um i i'm with donnie I think we elevate her right up to 120.
150 or better is my goal in fall 2025.
But, I mean, prepare to be surprised.
Eventually, we're going to get some summer doldrums.
People do eventually go on vacation, but that's an August issue.
We've got all of June and July still to look forward to.
And we had that massive sell-off and liquidation in early spring.
So we've already deleveraged. We've already wiped out the leverage long in those who were going to get margin called.
Now we get to just liquidate the bears and move higher.
the bears and move higher so honestly 120 here we go i have a feeling we're gonna rip to 120
So 120, here we go.
in the next couple weeks and then we'll start chopping and i'm hoping we can get a little bit
of like altcoin um you know appetizer in like july august and have btc range a bit chop a bit and then um and then like the real
bubble uh later this year right in the fall here's the thing guarantee about alpha right
gold started rallying late december and it peaked in the last week of April. That's a four month uptrend, right?
So gold leads Bitcoin and, you know, the rally started from about April 8th.
Did I just cut out?
Oh, sorry.
The rally started from about April 8th on BTC, right?
And roughly around then is when gold started to top as well.
So our rally following gold should last at least four months, plus that chart that I shared at the start,
us pretty much trailing that liquidity buildup and gold rallying.
We should be set to rally up until the middle of August
based off of that alone, regardless of everything else.
And then you can have some sort of pullback or
consolidation or whatever. But just like Paolo said, or whoever that was speaking, even if you
do pull back some or consolidate a little bit sideways there, you could actually have alts
overperforming during that period in August as well. But that's probably a good area to look for
extreme high prices from where we are right now. So yeah, this rally's got lots of juice still in it left.
An interesting thought experiment.
I always think of this well after the fact,
but now we're actually right on time.
You're talking about alts and you're talking about beta plays to Bitcoin.
If your alt or your beta to Bitcoin really lagged
and really did not perform strongly in the last 200 days, there's a good chance it's going to get skipped over in this coming leg higher.
Look for the beta plays and look for the alts that had nothing but bullish strength, even when Bitcoin corrected down to 90 to 80 to 75k.
You know, who were the ones that didn't like just completely capitulate their chart over
that time frame?
And Bitcoin miners too.
And like the whole thing, all of them, any of those beta plays and alts to Bitcoin.
Because, you know, if they held up in the bear correction, they're going to show up in the bull explosion.
Here's the thing, though, with that,
is it actually makes for massive opportunity.
So what you'll notice is that those leaders
that you're talking about, they're going to lead, right?
They're going to go to their all-time high first or whatever.
And because they're sticking out like sore thumbs,
people rotate out of those into coins
that are lagging. And then those lagging coins also pump 5, 10, 15, 20 X off the lows. So it
makes for a good, you know, rotationary setup. And that's why I'm convinced you will see everything
start rallying again if those conditions are in the market, right? We literally had a glimpse of
it when ETH BTC rallied 50% off the low. In terms of alts and stuff, you had Fartcoin leading most of the on-chain,
pumped to like a billion or whatever.
And then you started seeing rotations out.
What did you see?
You saw all of the sole meme coins and whatever,
that whole ecosystem start catching bids.
Everything flew off the low.
And that was just a very short window of having a good environment in the market.
So if we're getting price discovery BTC, plus those other triggers with ETH BTC, Bitcoin
dominance potentially, and obviously ETH rallying, for at least a month or two, you're going
to see everything catch up with 100%.
percent absolutely everything
Absolutely everything.
we got mike back with us man mike what's up brother sorry guys i had an inbound call from
australia uh which which is an unusual uh occurrence but uh important times i know who
that is yeah require important conversations, right?
So what I was saying, I don't know where I got cut off specifically, but on the treasury company question, like the bottom line is treasury companies are hugely bullish for Bitcoin.
I'm just not sure that they're hugely bullish for each other.
Matt's trying to call out, you know out maybe one thing that 21 Capital does differently.
MetaPlanet would argue that what they do is very different. The arguments are all highly reductive and reflexive in a sense, because basically what you're saying is that we're going to win.
If you want to net everything out, all the arguments, we're going to win because we have
a higher MNAV. Because it's true, if you have a higher MNAV
than somebody else, then you can run a strategy
that's accretive when someone else can't.
If your MNAV is one or less than one,
then running a strategy that dilutes the equity value
is going to be a better strategy.
GG's.
GG's.
Oh no.
He's a busy man.
Yeah.
Iron must be blowing up his phone.
Iron's looking good, man.
The chart.
Yeah.
Iron looks good.
I'm happy with CleanSpark finally looking good.
I was going to ask Mike a question, but Matt, this one's directed at you as well.
So I've been getting DMs and stuff of people saying, everyone already knows the money supply
is going up.
Therefore, it's not going to play out.
What do you think about that?
That's not how that works.
Holy shit.
Yo, Mike, I need to ask you a question
yeah I'm back guys sorry
I was just gonna ask you
cause I keep getting these DMs of
people asking they're basically
saying everyone already knows
the money supply is going up so it's not
gonna play out and then a directional
arrow to the downside what do you think about that
I think it's complete and total bullshit It's not going to play out. And then a directional arrow to the downside. What do you think about that?
I think it's complete and total bullshit, right? Like the money supply, money creation, global liquidity is a first order driver of asset prices.
And Bitcoin is the most important global liquidity barometer because it taps in directly with no intervention and no interruption by global authorities, right?
It's not being, there is manipulation in the kind of levered markets on these offshore casinos.
In that sense, there is manipulation, but there's no sovereign intervention trying to manipulate the cost of Bitcoin.
And so it is a pretty pure barometer.
So if governments print money, if governments monetize debt, then Bitcoin will go up.
And it doesn't matter whether the market thinks that or doesn't think that or whatever.
the market thinks that or doesn't think that or whatever. It's like, you may think that because
everybody understands that gravity exists, that when you jump, you're going to keep flying into
the heavens, right? Because how could you possibly, how could gravity possibly hold you down now that
everybody knows that gravity is there? It's like a law of nature. It's a physical reality.
It's not a sentiment driven thing. So yeah, there's plenty of sentiment-driven
things. Again, the heuristics I use are when every Uber driver I sit with wants to talk about crypto,
when everybody in my neighborhood wants to talk about crypto, when everybody on TV wants to talk
about crypto, then I want to de-risk at least a little bit around the edges crypto. When Global
M2 is skyrocketing, I want to be long crypto. I want to be long Bitcoin.
And I don't care what anyone thinks at that moment. Right. And we're still
look, the scent, all the sentiment indicators are still highly supportive of higher prices.
Outside of these rooms, people are still largely extremely negative. They've been
scarred by what happened in the spring of this year.
They sold stocks.
They sold Bitcoin.
They got scared out of the market by charts and macro commentators.
And there's going to be a credit event.
And Japan's going to crash.
And blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
And here we are.
We're back over $110,000.
Heading to $121,000 probably within the next eight or nine days. And then from there, we're heading to 121,000 probably within the next eight or nine days.
And then from there, we're heading to 150.
And the miners are all starting to wake up.
And not just the miners that have AIHPC optionality, although they're doing better.
All the miners are starting to show signs of life.
At the same time, the treasury companies are spinning up.
And again, some of them have no
differentiation really they're just going to be buying bitcoin and they're all going to say it's
accretive by the way they're all they're all going to say we're going to be able to lose this is my
top level point is like if you have a high m nav yes you can run an accretive bitcoin treasury
strategy with very little differentiation even but But the question is, like, how sustainable is that MNED?
Like, where does it come from?
And you can argue, hey, our strategy is a little bit more clever than someone else's.
Our operating business is a little bit more cash flow generative than other people.
But in the long run, it's unclear to me where there's any real differentiation there.
where there's any real differentiation there.
Like if the net goal is just to accumulate the most Bitcoin,
then at some point, if you're actually successful at that,
then your share price performance is going to start to converge
with the returns of Bitcoin itself.
Which if you know anything about Bitcoin,
you know that's not necessarily a bad thing.
But it does take away this argument that you're magically going to be able to use this magical money machine, infinite money glitch printer thing to magically sustain some multiple above the Bitcoin you're able to put on the balance sheet.
So my summary of all this is Bitcoin treasury companies are fine.
Again, I still own MicroStrategy. I'm not buying the other ones that are coming out at this point
because I think it's a bit late in the cycle
for buying Bitcoin in the open market.
If you didn't already own a bunch of Bitcoin by now,
you don't want to be the last person in
chasing levered Bitcoin proxies at this point.
If you're going to deploy to anything other than Bitcoin,
you want to buy assets that can produce new Bitcoin at cost, right?
You want to be able to produce Bitcoin at 25K or 50K,
no matter what the price, the market price of Bitcoin is.
You don't want to be speculating that some genius hedge fund manager
effectively can sell you rolling warrants right
or can sell you equity or some new form of perpetual preferred using some strategy to
continue to buy bitcoin at higher and higher absolute prices because at some point that game
will stop working and a lot of those equities not not only will they collapse, but they'll all be tripping over each other to sell
to meet their obligations, right?
Because they have so many securities outstanding
and they have so many obligations.
And so it just, people need to be thoughtful
and careful about that.
Again, it's way too early in the cycle
to be really worried about that type of collapse.
The people who are saying,
oh, that's going to cause the downturn and it's imminent,
like those people are idiots, right?
I'll just say it for what it is.
They're just not very good at markets.
They haven't been around very long.
But at some point, 300K or 500K or 900K, at some point, there's going to be a lot of hot
capital all saying they're going to do exactly what Saylor's doing and exactly what Meta
Planet and Jack Mallers and David Bailey and the dozens of others similar, dozens of other people that are copycats that are doing the same thing.
And a lot of those people have no real conviction.
Sort of like the GameStop CEO, Cohen, like when he did that interview recently, a lot of Bitcoiners just sold their GameStop because they listened to the interview and they realized he has no actual conviction he has no other strategy to generate future shareholder value
for a physical world game company and he hasn't come up with anything better so they're going to
buy 500 million dollars of bitcoin and he's like well i don't really know like anybody's guess
whether it goes up and down it's like no that's if you're going to do bitcoin treasury companies
right as an investment you definitely don't want to invest in the guy who thinks it's just a random crapshoot, whether Bitcoin goes up or down.
You would definitely prefer to invest in Saylor or Milers who have some much deeper fundamental view on why Bitcoin's better money, why it's going to win in the long run.
Why, if they don't stop printing fiat, Bitcoin won't stop going up on fiat terms, etc.
buying up on fiat terms, et cetera.
If the CEO can't even say that,
then you certainly don't want to be gambling
on your money on equities of treasury companies
that don't have any real conviction around Bitcoin.
Yeah, I want to say something too.
Really good point about the macro pundits
scaring people out.
I was listening to Darius Dale from 42 Macro
and he was mentioning,
and this is something I've been noticing too, because I listen to these macro guys all day,
and I noticed that even when things get a little bearish or there's a reason to be bearish,
these guys take it way over the edge, and they're trying to play to your negativity bias
to influence your action bias so that you buy their sub stack so that you
you know buy their subscription service so that you buy their whatever it is you know because if
markets are going down then okay we need we need help we need someone else to tell us what to do
how to be exposed to the upside but if my portfolio is going up then i'm all good you know and it's
so you got to take it with a grain of salt. And it's just I don't know.
That's kind of what I had to say.
And then I also posted some stuff about liquidity up top.
And another thing, too, it's like, oh, we know that liquidity is going up, so it's not going to work.
I don't think people understand how aggressively global liquidity is going to start rising with Germany taking off to debt break and China needing to basically print themselves out of an
economic crisis. And another thing too, and I wanted to bring this up and see what you guys
and see what your thoughts were on this. You know, everyone's freaking out about the bond market
and we have all these sophisticated answers as to, you know, why it's a problem and why this.
I feel like is it, could it just be as simple as the banks are going to,
the banks are gonna are the
banks are gonna buy the bonds if no one else does yes that's literally what they're telling us the
fed is the fed is already doing emergency measures to hold up the bond market jamie diamond is saying
there's going to be a bond crisis like the biggest most powerful banker in the u.s is saying we don't want to buy the bonds
they all saw what happened to first republic and silicon valley bank and silver gate way back in
march of 23 those big banks they got to buy the carcasses of those companies they saw what
happened when they believed treasury when they believed the fed um that they could raise rates
500 basis points and it wouldn't cause problems right so no one's going
to be tricked no commercial entity unless they're forced to at gunpoint is going to be tricked
into holding paper that's going to lose value or cause some sort of cataclysmic crisis but just
real quick back to your previous point because i thought it was important yeah look if you're
following macro people whose primary source of income is a substack
versus actually trading in real markets,
like actually investing their own money
or professionally investing money on behalf of others,
then you've already lost, right?
It's like the difference between learning about life
from your teacher who's 42 years old who failed at everything but managed to get a job as a teacher, and them giving you life advice versus just going out in the real world and figuring out how to get shit done yourself, right?
You've got to be really careful about who you take advice from in markets.
That's not the only reason to be concerned when some of these macro people be bearish.
The other incentive issues are, one, that it generally sounds macro people be bearish the other incentive issues are
one that it generally sounds smarter to sound bearish right so people think you sound dumb
when you're bullish like you're just you're just being stupid you're you're being bullish see there's
all these smart people who have all these smart things to say and they're all saying it's bearish
so i should probably be bearish right the other problem is a lot of the people who are saying bearish things are actually either short or they've sold too much too soon.
And so they need a better entry point.
And so it's very important that they go on CNBC and scare people into selling so that they can get another entry point into stocks that have gotten away from them.
another entry point into stocks that have gotten away from them. And so look, everybody has
incentives, but unfortunately, like for the bears and for people who were super bearish for the last
few months, there was no reason to be that way in a sort of run-of-the-mill mid-cycle correction
with clearly rising liquidity, with a set of macro factors that were about to get easier,
like the DXY clearly falling,
which is something Donnie and I have been talking about for months and months. I started talking
about it more than a year ago. And first, we had to go higher into the Trump inauguration,
just like last time, by the way. If you go back to 2016, we went higher, and then we fell
the entire first year of Trump's term. what what happened then small caps rallied biotech
rallied bitcoin rallied we had a delay this time because we had more tariff related volatility
right we had some some issues emanating from japan um and japan selling treasuries right we
had we have a much higher international debt now relative to gdp than we did
eight years ago nine years ago right and so some of the some of the factors are the same some some
of them are different but the only thing that changed from 2016 2017 until now is that there's
just a greater lag between the start of the trump presidency and the the inevitable rally in bitcoin
small caps biotech etc you can see it everywhere now in the market caps, biotech, etc. You can see it everywhere now in
the market. Even biotech has finally bottomed. Small caps are starting to show relative strength
over large caps. The dollar is still holding, DXY is still holding, down under 100. Long-term
yields look like they've more or less topped out, at least for the short term. And so,
yeah, there's just no reason to be bearish.
And so when people are bearish because of a sub stack,
again, you shouldn't be listening to them
if their income is coming from sub stack.
But two, you also need to be careful
because a lot of those people need entry points.
And so they need you to be a seller
in order so that they can buy at better prices again.
The bears sound smart and the bulls make money.
In the long run, it's really that simple, yes.
Well, you also run into this problem where, unfortunately, at a certain point,
the bears' online persona has become so wrapped up in who they are
and how they make money that they couldn't ever flip bullish.
I mean, they would lose their followers.
They would lose their money, their revenue.
They would lose subscriptions.
They're in a weird, perverse way.
Eventually, they're incentivized to just stay bearish, period.
And it can never be good.
And it can never have, you can never have brighter days. And, you know, especially also in
CT too, which is so odd to me in crypto. But we, you know, we used to make fun of
Capo back in 2023 and 2024. The guy couldn't find any reason to be bullish except at various local tops. But to me, my takeaway was
he had wrapped up his online personality so much about just shorting and being a bear that
even if he privately felt bullish, he couldn't say that openly. He would eat a lot of crap
and he would lose a lot of followers and money.
It's funny.
The identity issue is important.
It reminds me of entrepreneurs who start a company from scratch, and that company is like their baby.
They build it up, build it up, build it up, and then they get an offer they can't refuse, and they sell it.
Then all of a sudden, it's like their identity for five, six, seven, eight, nine years was I am CEO of X company and you sold it.
You made a lot of money, but now you're miserable because you no longer have the identity of being CEO of X company.
Now you're just some guy who used to run a company.
And I heard that recently of a woman who raised her kids and her kids are off college. And for 18 years, her identity was i'm the mother of three children and now she's
just like a woman in her 50s with nothing to do at least according to her right and so um you have
to be careful of that identity issue like the more somebody it's very important for them to portray
themselves a certain way if they're forced to change uh perspectives it's really hard to do
that as matt said because there's these incentives that are
embedded within that and so that's something as a professional investor by the way you have to be
super careful about you have to find ways to to change your mind frequently to be not afraid to
change your mind frequently right to re-underwrite all of your ideas and and it's like a muscle you
have to use it right and so when you realize you're wrong, you have to change. You have to go a different
direction. And some people can't do that. They're so invested. It's like an identity for them
to be a certain way. The same thing applies on the long side, though, too. So if you think about
the great financial crisis, there were very few people who were willing to call out the degeneracy by the banks packaging up all these CDOs and getting AAA ratings.
Very few people were willing to call it out because there's so many people making money on it.
And the entire banking system was being held up, in a sense, by this false belief that that paper
had real value. And so it took a lot of courage then to stand against that and say, no, this is insane.
The problem is, for every Michael Burry, there are like 100,000 idiots who all want to be bearish
at the wrong time. Even Michael Burry has gotten it wrong basically ever since and hasn't really
grown as fun, hasn't really had much success since the financial crisis. It was almost like a one-hit
wonder because it turns out being bearish is a long wait,
a long wait, and then you get your payoff,
and then it's a long wait again.
And basically, most short sellers,
including most of the best short sellers of all time,
basically retire, right?
And they give up because it's so hard
because markets generally go up over long periods of time.
So anyway, just my thoughts on that.
Especially the asset class that's literally known for logarithmic scale parabolic expansions.
How are you going to short that and make money over time?
That's just literally the opposite of what you should be doing.
Well, I think it goes back to your earlier point, Donnie and Mike,
that if you get them so scared, your followers and your subscribers,
if you get them so scared to make a move that they need you to tell them
when to hit the buy button, then you got them.
That's the whole point.
That's the whole, I don't want to say scam, but that's the whole point that's the whole i don't want to say scam
but that's the whole uh business model this is why i don't do any subscriptions i don't do and
by the way no offense to anyone who does but you know my job i'm a professional investor that's all
i do and 95 of it is investing my own money and And so it's just very important for me to the extent at which I share ideas on these platforms that it be basically just a distillation of what I actually think with no other motive whatsoever.
Right?
And it's hard to do that if you're monetizing every single one of those ideas or trying to sell those ideas.
Look, no offense, again, to anyone who does that. There are different ways to do this. But for me
personally, I will never directly monetize via some sort of trading thing or whatever because
whatever, because I think it makes it harder to do my job correctly.
I think it makes it harder to do my job correctly.
I kind of have the opposite view on that.
I've been running a private Discord for a long time now.
And first of all, there is the community building aspect of it,
which obviously you don't need to have a paywall for,
but it does drive you because you do have some sort of subscription
to get in to actually put out your best effort for these
people that are in there and make sure that they're consistently winning. Otherwise, I wouldn't even
be bothered to be sharing hundreds of trades here and there when market gets hot or if you're doing
scalping and things like that. It does take a lot of time to set these up, lay it all out nicely for
people so it's very noob friendly for them to actually learn.
It takes a lot of time out of your day. And if you do enjoy running a community and teaching people things like that while also making money, you're kind of going to work and getting paid for
it. I think there's nothing wrong with that personally. But obviously, that's probably one
to 5% of actual groups out there there a lot of them are very extractive
they'll just pump tokens here's the ticker you know their community buys it they sell on their
heads things like that right that's disgusting but if you know if you have good intentions and
things like that then i guess it's fine no i feel the same way i've got a uh i've got a
i've got a smaller community and it's it's. It's just macro research, YouTube clips, charts, posts, voice notes, that kind of thing.
It definitely keeps you going and inspires you to go out there and learn more because you have people who are not relying on you necessarily.
Again, it's free, so I can just log off tomorrow and wouldn't feel bad about it but it definitely keeps you going but i always feel that because i'm like you know eventually i'd
like to because i don't make any money from you know by being here in the space by doing the
things that i do i always keep them i always keep the mindset like you know if you do if you just
show up every day and you keep growing and building and trying to provide value those sort of things
will take care of themselves and they have to a certain extent. Like I've had people reach out to me and I've got actually some cool stuff in the pipelines.
But yeah, it's kind of like a fine needle to thread, you know, between like are you
becoming, are you like extracting or are you like charging a reasonable fee for your services
and doing something good for people and helping people become better investors.
So that's still, you know, that's still a line that I'm still trying to figure out too.
All fair.
And again, hopefully no offense taken.
I realize that I'm in a privileged position because I don't have to be here at all.
And actually, I get asked quite a bit, why are you here?
And it's actually not an easy question to answer because there's certainly more downside than upside, especially when you're not monetizing directly.
So is there value to having an audience?
Maybe.
Do you need an audience to make a lot of money in markets?
Absolutely not.
In fact, most of the people who make the most money in markets don't talk about their positions ever, right?
And there's a reason for that.
So, you know, the more your positions are visible or at least understandable by others, the more they can be exploited, right?
There's also regulatory and compliance-related issues.
But, look, the modern standard is that CEOs and hedge fund managers, the Bill Ackmans and the Elon Musk of the world, they're on social media and they're active and they share their views.
And I think that's a better world, right?
Like on that, I think it's a better world, but it's certainly a different world, right?
Like back in the 80s or 90s, all of these types of communications would be done in an official forum.
And any announcements would be done in an official forum and any
announcements would be done via like an official sec filing or press release and so things have
changed a lot it's much more real time it's much more 24 7 it's fun to some degree i like to tell
people i'm only here because because i enjoy it like it's basically an extension of what I'm doing anyway, right? Like I am in markets every day.
And so I'm reading about companies, thinking about companies.
When I see something interesting, I'll tweet it out without any preparation, right?
Like I don't have a team.
I don't have any people that work for me.
Some people have like other people gathering content and tweeting it out.
They're basically like content farms.
Everything that comes out of my account is something that I thought was
interesting at the moment that I tweeted it.
It's more of like a stream of consciousness.
Like, hey, I'm looking at this stock right now.
I think it's interesting, right, et cetera.
And so, yeah, is that enough?
Like if I needed it to generate revenue?
Like probably not. I'd probably to generate revenue, like probably not,
I'd probably need to do a group, right. I'd probably need to do something like what you
guys are describing. And like, I think again, if it's done correctly where it's not extractive
and it's designed to actually help people, then, you know, God bless you.
I have a pretty big community on like, so I have have one of the biggest communities on TikTok for crypto specifically. And here's one thing I learned about all this because there are a lot of scammers, obviously, in crypto. There's a lot of people that actually want to support the creator.
When I used to, when I first started during the pandemic, I wasn't selling anything.
And people wanted to buy things from me. They wanted to buy my art. And then they wanted me
to form a discord. So I did that. People will always go with the people they like. If they
think you're a scammer and you're gross and they get screwed by you they're gonna leave they're gonna unfollow you so like from my experience
like people who have built communities and making revenue from them those people want to support
the creator like i think in crypto i think people like get this wrong a lot they think like oh like
all the normies are dumb or something like, well, they might not know as much about crypto, but they're certainly not dumb. You know, they know what they're doing a
lot of the time. And there's a lot of people who actually just want to support and uplift like
certain creators. So like, during the pandemic, I just started a community for fun. I had no idea like I was going to go viral
on TikTok. And a lot of my audience wanted to buy artwork from me because they knew I was an artist.
So I decided to make NFTs, right? And then they wanted other things. So I think like,
it's all about like, gathering your own community. And if you it's kind of like,
I think Donnie said for as long as your intentions are good, as long as you're clear with people on the risk, if you are doing risky things,
like for example, I'm obviously in the trenches trading meme points. Nobody is mad at me. Like
you can go look at my comments. I have hundreds of thousands of followers on TikTok. Nobody's mad
because as long as you're clear with your audience, the nature and the risks of what you're doing,
whether it's like NFTs or
memes or altcoins or Bitcoin, as long as you're clear and you communicate that well, people will
not get upset. Where people go wrong is there are a lot of scammers out there who take advantage of
people and they're not very good at communicating the risks for people who are new to crypto.
So for me, what I learned, as long as you communicate well, you don't really
get negative feedback at all, really. So you know, that's like, kind of a tip, because I know a lot
of people on the stage, you built communities and crypto right here on Twitter, there's a lot of
people follow you for a reason, they like you, they like what you have to say. And yeah, I think
like, if people didn't want to be in your community, they wouldn't. I guess that's the point I'm making. I also wanted to talk about what these guys were saying before. I think if we get some good news at the FOMC meeting coming up somehow, I also believe the markets are going to skyrocket into oblivion. So we'll see.
skyrocket into oblivion. So we'll see. Yeah, I think we're going to get, you know,
tell me what CPI inflation prints later this week, and we'll know pretty well how the FOMC will go.
Obviously, lower the number, the better. If you get a CPI print later this week with like a
2% or a 1.9 or even a 1.8, the market's up only.
Up only.
We're already back to CPI inflation readings of 2021.
And the whole goal was to get back to 2% or under 2%.
That's certainly what J-PAL and the Fed are waiting for.
So, I mean, if you're rooting for some relief on Fed funds rates, if you're if you're rooting for, you know, another negative 25 percent or even 50 percent reduction in BIPs, then you want to see that inflation reading as low as possible this week.
I would love to get the panel's take on this.
And, you know, forgive me if you guys have covered this already, but this is something that I think a lot of a lot of people are curious about, including myself.
Do we think that the that the Fed is is is correct?
And do we think correct in their in keeping rates so high?
Do we think that they need to to cut rates based on what we already have?
Because, you know, I know this much that their mandate is behind the curve.
Right. They're looking at the hard data. and so they're always going to be late.
Everyone criticizes the Fed for being late, but it's like their mandate is to be late, unless I have that wrong.
Do we think that it's political?
What do you guys think about all that?
Because I feel like that's – I still don't know what they think about all that.
I think the Fed and Jay Powell are in a real shit position.
Because, look, every bond investor and Jamie Dimon and all the rest, they know the U.S. is looking to roll about $7 trillion, maybe $7.5 trillion worth of debt. Those bonds are expiring. They've got to
roll them into new bonds, and they want to get as low and as cheap a rate as possible. Of course,
right? Wouldn't we all, you know? And so, of course, the U.S. Fed, this current administration,
excuse me, of course, this administration wants the Fed to lower rates
to as low as possible because they want to get the best deal, whether or not it's actually good
for the economy or good for inflation or not. So they're in a shit position. And what do you
think if you're a bond investor or you're a big bank? Well, if you know the U.S. government has to roll $7 trillion worth of bonds and debt,
you're not going to buy before the government does.
Let the government sell all that debt and let rates go to wherever they may.
Then you can come in and get a better deal.
Why would you,
you know, if you know that, long story short, if you know that $7 trillion worth of debt is about to be sold into the market, making the value of your treasuries lose money, you're not going to
be so excited to jump in today or tomorrow or next
month. You want to let them go first and then you'll go second. And so everyone's just kind
of like waiting and seeing and eventually someone's going to have to make a move. Someone will.
that makes sense and like my understanding too is like you know and that and that was the whole
point too it's like you know how does the old how does the old adage go if you want to if you want
to bring rates down like nuke the nuke the nuke stocks or something like that you know when trump
came in and he you know that was the idea right he's going to kitchen sink the economy um you know, when Trump came in and he, you know, that was the idea, right? He's going to kitchen sink the economy, you know, drive people into bonds, drive the price of the 10-year down,
the price of the 10-year up, drive yields down. Was that ever his goal? Or was he really just
kind of just going crazy out there? And if so, I mean, it seems like he overshot, right? Because
it seems like he lit a match and do it on the bond market that you almost just can't undo now.
And that's, you know, in April 9th, and that's, you know, what, and I listened to Darius Dale, too, and he says on April 9th, you know, the bond market broke Trump.
basically made him pivot away from this, you know, moving away from a bloated U.S. economy,
moving away from fiscal largesse to, you know, and that's what they call paradigm A,
moving into what they call paradigm B, which is a more responsible U.S. economy,
you know, fueled by private sector growth. His argument is that on April 9th, the bond market
broke him in that regard and that he now is pivoting to paradigm C, which is all the monetary and fiscal largesse of paradigm A with additional tax cuts and deregulation, which they argue will lead to a raging bull market.
I'll pin those overviews down below for people who want to look at that.
They're literally pivoting to making an asset bubble this cycle pretty much by the looks of it.
And it was a very interesting pivot, right?
But they did say, and you have to pay attention to these policymakers and stuff, every single word that they say when they come out and speak, because they made it very clear they didn't want to crash anything, right?
They wanted that soft landing through what you just called paradigm B, right?
soft landing through what you just called paradigm B, right? The detox period. So of course, when
The detox period.
things got, you know, very volatile and scary, they were going to pivot. So you just had to watch
out for that. And then you had a bunch of leading indicators also telling you that you're at least
going to get a technical bounce on BTC, on stocks, on whatever. So you can play that low with, you
know, risk mitigation to the downside, because to the downside because even on the chart,
I was showing accumulation setups on BTC.
It was very good for a bounce.
And as soon as the bounce actually played out, they pivoted as well.
So it was very interesting timing that they did the pivot.
Obviously, yeah, there was bond market stress and all that kind of stuff.
But yeah, what they're pivoting to and through my lens, what I'm seeing,
and regardless of the Fed pretty, because they've literally told us the liquidity levers they want to tap into the Treasury buybacks, the SLR exemptions, publicizing that company, Fannie and Freddie, which is like $5 trillion in credit creation, on top of the big, beautiful bill, which is like another $4 or $5 trillion expansion on their deficit, you're setting up for an absolutely crazy run,
right? Leading into these midterms where the growth agenda starts now and it doesn't happen
within three months. It takes a very long time to play out and it's going to be a gradual
expansion. So the reason why I'm thinking that they're setting up a potential
asset bubble this cycle is one, their goal to outpace the debt, but also two,
the amount of times they've been mentioning stablecoins this cycle is kind of giving a much
bigger macro picture to me of that with this environment that they're creating, with the
asset that BlackRock and the US government are marketing to the world as a hedge against
basically this shift in global
trade and everything, BTC, they're going to attract global capital by essentially pumping this market
broader risk, but marketing crypto, which directly boosts stablecoin demand, which in turn creates
indirect demand for their short term US treasuries to fund their debt. So you can imagine BTC going
to 300k, well, that's going to unlock a crazy amount of stablecoin demand, right? So there's almost like
this bigger picture that I'm seeing that with all of the levers that they want to tap into,
with this broader global picture of monetary inflation, essentially, you're seeing bond
market stress in a lot of major economies, and we're seeing them come out with pivoting from austerity to monetary expansion as well. It's just this massive, massive whirlwind
that's essentially going to benefit crypto this cycle. And again, it's all tying back to that
stablecoin kind of picture to essentially create this indirect demand for US Treasury so they can keep running the system, right?
Creating a bigger timeline for this fiat system,
which they've created essentially.
And yeah, it seems like the timing will line up for,
in my view right now, mid to late 2026,
which lines up perfectly for the midterms.
So it feels like it's starting right now,
but BTC is at 110K,
which is the confusing part
where people are trying to predict the cycle top.
But really, this is the macro expansion
occurring right now.
Yes.
The bond market definitely forced
this administration's hand.
That's true.
We remember a couple months ago
after Liberation Day when, OK, it's 20 percent tariffs on you, 30 percent tariffs on them, one look at that and said, okay, well,
if it just became 30%, 40%, 50% more expensive to do business with the US, why do we need US
treasuries? And they started dumping them en masse. And that's when you saw Fed funds, excuse me,
that's when you saw twos and tens US treasuries go from 3, 3 to 3.5 to 3.9 to 4 to 4.5 percent.
And they're still here.
Twos and 10-year-old treasuries are still at 4 percent and 4.5 percent.
And that tells you, what does that say?
That means the world is not interested in buying bonds for any less than that interest rate.
There's no interest in that.
That's the natural rate in which they're trading all across the globe.
And somewhere around 30% to 33% of all U.S. treasuries are traded and held by international and foreign investors,
not U.S. Those are other countries. Those are other family offices, other entities,
central banks, you name it. And so if you start hurting international demand for your treasuries,
well, then where do bond rates go after that? What, 7%, 9%, 11%? Because we're the US spending in the deficit year after year after year. We spend way more than we ever take in. foreign entities and foreign investors are buying less of our debt too, well, then those rates have
to go up. They have to. So that's why you saw this administration pivot on a dime. And all of a sudden,
every tariff was getting postponed. And let's come to the table, and exemptions for this, and exclusions for that, and okay,
okay, chips are exempted, and okay, this region's exempted. That's why that happened. It was the
bond market. The bond market forced this administration's hand. That's 100% correct,
and I would just add that the only sincere thing from this administration, you know,
related to this particular issue is when Donald Trump said
that he thinks tariffs are good for the US right like he actually believes that I'm not sure anyone
else believes it I don't think the scent believes it Lutnik is just Trump's bag holder basically
right so like he's gonna do whatever Trump says
and the reality is like the crypto ecosystem is getting more or less
everything that we wanted and so even though he's made a mess of a bunch of
things like we have a strategic Bitcoin reserve right the Trump kids are like
launching a Bitcoin mining company that's basically hud aids hold stub mining business into
the market right like tether has got an official stamp of endorsement right all the sec litigation
against coinbase against ripple against a bunch of other companies have been dropped it's very clear
it's a safe environment to do m a again again. So you're seeing basically the largest M&A transactions in crypto all happened in the last few months.
Multiple, multi-billion dollar type of M&A transactions.
And so they told you exactly what they were going to do.
They said, we're going to make crypto, we're going to make America the crypto capital of the world.
We're going to make America the Bitcoin capital of the world.
We're going to make America the Bitcoin capital of the world.
All the other stuff was noise.
The only part you needed to hear was that they were going to make America the Bitcoin capital of the world.
And it's happening.
It's actually happening. with the volatility am i am i pleased with the like misguided tariffs and some of these other
policies that like are probably not going to end up getting carried out like not really but if the
net result is that america's open for bitcoin business and stable coin business then we're
going to be in a much better position in 10 years in spite of all of the other noise and bullshit i don't think there
was one sincere attempt like a doge was a nice like thing to throw out there and it was cool to
have elon musk hanging out in the white house and stuff but like i i never believed for for a second
that there was going to be any change in the trajectory of the deficit or the debt in the us
change in the trajectory of the deficit or the debt in the U.S. Again, another reason to just
stay long Bitcoin. And now we're seeing that that's the case. We're going to run a $2 to $3
trillion deficit just like we always did. The Fed's going to intervene as necessary. The Treasury's
going to intervene as necessary to hold up the bond market no matter what the Japanese or the
Chinese or what any of the other bondholders want to do. They'll manipulate or say or do whatever needs to be done to hold
yields at whatever level they need to be held at so that we don't collapse. And in the meantime,
they're going to blow, just as Donnie and Matt said, another asset bubble. That should not be
a surprise, right you if you paid attention
to american politics for 30 or 40 years should not be a surprise it doesn't matter whether the
the politician is republican or democrat they ultimately dance based on what financial markets
say and in particular what the bond market dictates and so like anybody who saw what was
happening in early april knew that it was just a matter of time before Trump capitulated because he doesn't want a global depression on his hands.
He wants Bitcoin to go to 200, 300,000.
He wants to make another 10 or 20 billion dollars before he dies.
He wants to make his friends rich.
He wants everybody to say Donald Trump is awesome.
Like that's basically his fundamental objective. And so everything else will go out the window before he gives up on that.
thinking of his legacy. He's on the last year, less than a year on his last stint as Fed chairman.
Obviously, Donald Trump and his second administration, everyone's thinking about
how they're going to go out, how they'll be remembered and acting accordingly. But again, I look at two-year treasuries right here at the chart
and 10-year treasuries right now, and they're trading at 4% and 4.5%. The world, again,
I can't state this enough, the world is not interested in buying U.S. debt, U.S. treasuries
for any less than 4%. So where is J-PAL supposed to cut rates? Like the
world isn't interested in buying anything below this rate. Zero room. So he's between a rock and
a hard place. So sure, the U.S. wants to roll $7 trillion plus in debt in the back half of this year, spin up the money printer. All right, guys, I'm going to run because
it's my anniversary and thankfully we got a last minute babysitter. So I'm going to be able to eat
steak and drink expensive wine tonight, but enjoy these $110K plus prices.
There's no reason to believe that we're not headed to $120K in the short term.
I mean, again, we could drop back down and retest $105K or $106K again one more time or
something, but the next major move is up.
And so doing anything other than buying and holding bitcoin and related proxies
i think is a fool's errand at this point uh have a great night everybody bye thanks mike all right
guys this is a great time to wrap up as well man i want to thank mike ragsy donnie matt frankie
everyone else who came up to talk shop palace as well guys if this is your first time tuning in we are because
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bless you all bye bye Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. so
um Hello everyone. Hello everyone. Hello everyone.
Hello everyone.
Hello everyone.
Hello everyone.
Hello everyone.
Hello everyone.
Hello everyone.
Hello everyone.
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