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Market Talk - BTC AT 118k ! Crypto melt up underway!? Alt season soon?
Recorded: July 11, 2025 Duration: 1:46:31Space Recording
Short Summary
Bitcoin is entering a new phase of price discovery, with significant momentum and bullish sentiment driving growth across the crypto market. As the community anticipates potential breakthroughs in resistance levels, altcoins are also expected to benefit from Bitcoin's upward trajectory.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. The End Thank you.第1章 第1章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 第2章 I'm sorry. Thank you. Oh It's okay. It's okay. so what is going on guys hope you are all doing fantastic what an insane last 48 hours bitcoin
has gone into price discovery with velocity at that actual volume i hope you are all excited just as i am eth btc absolutely uh has gone on a on a signal for the rest of the
altcoins man eth tapping 3k if you guys remember that chart that i posted from my personal profile
up on the nest uh it was basically right before eth zoomed from 2600 2700 all the way to 3k
ETH zoomed from $2,600, $2,700 all the way to $3,000.
And dominance kind of pulling back a bit.
And I'll be honest, guys, I haven't really checked the equity markets today as much as I usually do.
They're kind of just chopping, to be honest.
And if you guys remember last week, myself and Donnie were alluding to the fact that,
all right, this is the perfect time for
Bitcoin to make a massive move here. Usually when equity markets outperform crypto, and there's a
lot more opportunity there, and you start to see some chop, you see a little bit of a pullback
on crypto, it's like, all right, if crypto is going to move, it's going to be right now. And
we've seen these patterns before, where one asset class outperforms the other.
And then the one that's lagging does catch up.
But we do have some anomalies that happen sometimes.
Like in 23, that second half of the year, equity markets were imploding and crypto was
just kind of grinding slowly back up, if you guys remember that.
I'm pretty sure when Bitcoin broke out, out of 30 31k the s p was still
going down at kingdom come uh to like 4100 or something like that or just below 4100 so you do
have those anomalies but after that the equity markets especially low cap stocks absolutely
melted face so um with that being said guys welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by Because Bitcoin.
I'm your host, Wabi.
Feel free to share some love to the space, guys.
If you guys want to go ahead and show your love and support and just tell me how happy
you are that Bitcoin is actually going to allow the cycle to have another leg up.
Anytime we've seen Bitcoin actually break through its previous resistance
with gusto, we do tend to rally about 50%. And I'll go ahead and post some charts about that
later on throughout the space. But if you guys have taken a look at this cycle and kind of zoomed
out a bit, anytime we find massive resistance, like we did with 30K, like we did with 30k like you did like we did with 74k we end up gapping
up about 50 i would even say if you guys remember uh 43 44k back in december of 23 that was
resistance uh for a couple of weeks and anytime we zoom past that resistance we gap up at least 50
that resistance, we gap up at least 50%. So it happened with 30K, happened with 42K,
happened with 74K, 73. You guys remember for about seven months of last year, that early 70K-ish
mark ended up being huge resistance. And what do you know, the last couple of months 108k 107k was that resistance so it wouldn't really shock
anybody if we gap up at least 50 percent but you know i understand the higher an asset class um
goes uh what's that what's that shit called the law of diminishing returns but i'm honestly
calling bullshit on that given the moves that we've seen over the last 12 months from high cap assets like NVIDIA, like Gold, chat.
This market is about to be absolutely lit.
And man, I am super excited to talk markets with you all today.
Anytime BTC breaks these barriers, it often gives all coins the green light
you guys remember in 23 when bitcoin broke 30k practically others btc rallied over 30 percent
uh when btc broke through uh that 48k 46k whatever that resistance was leading up to the BTC ETF, on-chain and all altcoins
went to Valhalla.
Pepe did like a 12X in a week or something like that.
And let's not forget what happened about eight months ago after the election where BTC blasted
to 80K.
Every single altcoin went crazy even boomer coins like uh styler lumens and
xrp and my coin uh zigzag to the upside to the moon right so i often have the same that i've been
uh that i've been um bantering on this show for the last two and a half years close to three years
now which is uh history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes
and the song that you guys heard by the way at the beginning of the stream that's the superman
uh official soundtrack superman just released in theaters today so i'm probably gonna go see it
tomorrow or on sunday or maybe today before i go train i'm not sure man i'll probably uh flip a coin or something
like that but either way look i got donnie up here i got mad up here and uh i'm gonna start
off with donnie as i usually have man because truly these uh spaces just haven't been regular
spaces where we just say oh bitcoin uh went to this level and then to that level and all right,
it can go up or down. No, like these spaces have all been documented with actionable alpha,
with things that people can actually do. And it's insane. And honestly, I'm incredibly grateful that
you guys tune into these shows, even with days where the market doesn't really do much. I want to thank every single one of you that have been tuning in since those lows at 73,
74K.
If you guys remember that day where the S&P opened up at 4,800, it was probably one of
the most entertaining days on X.
Truly since, man, I would say since stablecoins de-pegged and everyone thought DeFi was going
to zero, if you guys remember that, and Bitcoin went from 25K down to 19K and everyone was
running around like headless chickens thinking that the S&P was going to go to 3200, 3100,
and that Bitcoin was going to go to 10K.
And what do you know, man?
And that was after the chips bill and all that stuff.
So crazy stuff, crazy stuff how these markets often rhyme.
And usually when markets are in turmoil, there's typically some massive spending bill that gets
signed, which recently was the big, beautiful bill.
And over the last few months,
you've had Trump say that this is the perfect time to buy. And that was the Pico Pico bottom, man. That was a Chad move, by the way, not to glaze. But when you have someone tell you at the
Pico top of a market saying that there's going to be some pain and that the stock market is sick and that you should wait at least six months for the market to get back to what people consider
a Trump economy and then give you the exact bottom, that's crazy work. And then you have
these dollar store analysts, these gold bugs that just love to come out of the woodwork and on spaces saying that the
end is near and that things are going to be choppy. And we've seen how these markets are anytime
the indices draw down over 20%. And not only that, you had the VIX going to over 60. So
I still stick by my words that you guys have heard me say on these spaces. I think 74K was the start of a new cycle.
And it's only evident even now with the price action that we've seen on ETH,
how ETH has been leading the way, just as it has in previous cycles.
It's usually been ETH leading majors, and then it's a trickle-down effect.
And you love to see it.
You love to see it. And I do like how trickle down effect. And you love to see it. You love to see it.
And I do like how Solana is looking.
It's treading slowly.
And I think we're going to have a pretty big breakout here over the next week.
Honestly, a gap up.
ETH gapped up.
BTC gapped up.
Hyperliquid is now in price discovery.
And, man, let's go ahead and get the show started.
So, Donnie, I'm going to pass it on over to you brother what an incredible week man what an incredible week and uh it's just so crazy man
how right before all this madness ensues in the market for the bulls that's when i started uh
posting charts it's like that one chart inspired um larry finkelsteinstein to knock on the door of all his friends and
family to say, max leverage and max borrow all the funds that you can allocate to Bitcoin
because Wabi is telling everyone melt-up season is here and it's a crime for you not to tell
people to be exposed to the asset class.
And brother, the road to the S&P 500 going to almost 10,000 by the end of next
year, it might seem crazy to some people, but I was called a madman as well when the S&P was
trading at 3,500 and the McNASDAQ was at like close to 10,000, I believe in December of 22.
Close to 10,000, I believe, in December of 22.
And I said within two years, the S&P is going to be at 6,000.
That's exactly what happened.
They called me a madman.
So if we just take a look at how the S&P has gapped up over the last few months,
it wouldn't shock me at all if we even finished the year close to 8,000,
maybe 7,000 000 something like that but
i'm gonna pass it on over to you donnie brother what's going on man um what have you got cooking
for us today man we're all hungry man we're ready for a five-star michelin sniper meal brother
hey brother um yeah man things are looking good and you know what i what i noticed like from you bobby is that
you've been in uh markets for a while now right since the 2017 cycle yeah i got in in december of
2017 on the 15th of december and my first purchase uh was some litecoin some eth at like 500 and Bitcoin at like 16k and change and then my first altcoin was nano
in January which I bought the top of and then I bought this token called Wabi and this is where
the name comes in Wabi I bought yeah this is the origin story bro I bought uh this token called wabi and it was a frog and it was like the actual the the
actual real first rwa token and what that token did it was a utility token where you use your wabi
tokens to use this app which allowed you to scan uh products in china and you were able to see like
all the supply chain data to see if it used fake
products or not. It was actually a pretty cool idea and it ran to like half a bill or just
close to a bill in market cap right around there. When I had bought it, it was when Bitcoin recovered
from like 6k and pumped to 10k one more time and it did like a triple in
a day and i'm like oh my goodness my first actual good trade and uh then i just started trading this
token and our web dev edward he used to have a discord group which i was a part of i found him
on youtube um and it's crazy he's been with me basically since the very beginning
and um yeah um they they just started calling me king lobby i'm like all right you know i'll uh
i'll stick with it and my and my profile picture before the one that i have right now
was a little pepe frog on the rocket that said king lobby the first andabi I. And it was pretty sick, man.
But I forgot to say this, Donnie.
I forgot to say this.
How foolish of me.
How stupid of me.
Only bears would do a mistake like this.
I forgot to ask the audience to please show some love to the space, ladies and gentlemen.
We have Bitcoin in price acceleration.
Achieving escape velocity, as Matt says.
So, guys, hit the Spaces tab.
Once you guys hit the Spaces tab, you'll see a little link right above all of our profile pictures that says BecauseBitcoin.com.
And you'll see a link that says x.com slash slash spaces.
I think I messed that up.
But go ahead and smash the like button on that link.
Hit that like button with as much bullish force as you can.
But just as important, guys, hit up that repost button, that retweet button.
I'm super excited to bring you guys a show filled with exclusive and exciting information that you won't find anywhere else.
So go ahead, guys.
Show some love and support to the space as it does a number of things.
It helps to get more eyes and ears to the show, awareness of the brand, and of course, would help out with the space getting out into the algorithm.
And you never know.
Sometimes just by doing that, you might have one of your favorite content creators in the audience.
You guys can ask me to bring him up, and I can just search him down there in the audience.
Sometimes we do get some interesting people down here in the audience and you
never know. You never know who you might end up seeing here on Market Talk.
So thank you guys so much. Only takes a little bit of effort.
I know you guys always do such a great job, but yeah, Donnie,
I forgot what you had asked, bro. I kind of went on a rant there about 2017.
You've been in the market for a long time.
And the way that you analyze the market is more from like a vibes perspective,
which is actually such an important part of basically just being able to analyze sentiment
and see through all of the noise.
Like that's a very important skill to have, right?
Because you can get psyoped by literally
anything, especially because in today's era, everyone's just terminally online, right?
So you're constantly consuming stuff, which can warp your perception of what reality actually is.
So it's a super important skill to have. So I'm not surprised that you're able to nail some
pivot points with basically, you can look at the chart just blank and be like, okay, this thing has nuked.
Everyone's freaking out.
It's probably the bottom, right?
Same with tops.
It literally, when you narrow it down,
it becomes that simple.
And all the in-between is literally the mid-curve, right?
You're either left curve, right curve winning,
or you're mid-curve overthinking.
So you definitely don't want to end up in the mid-curve
and just consuming a bunch of noise, which messes up your signal in your head. So yeah, not surprised you hit a bunch of these
pivot points. But yeah, I guess I'll start with just framing, or I guess the confusion people had
of why markets are just going up. Even with this Bitcoin breakout, people are like, oh, wow, like
they're pretty impressed and pretty surprised by it.
But it's not really surprising at all.
You're literally having the incremental confirmation of the playbook from the people who are signing the bills
that literally expand the money supply or they contract the money supply.
They're literally telling you the exact playbook in the open.
You just have to take that as the signal, cut out all the other noise.
And as soon as the market or the rest of the market participants start to slowly realize
that, wow, that playbook is actually going to materialize, the chart's going to go up
because people are going to bid, right?
It's a risk on environment.
They're going to be allocating to risk.
So I just shared the chart of, I kept updating this one of how I was thinking it
was basically like that 2024 range. We were just kind of forming a lower timeframe version of that,
even with the 98k drop, which was very similar to the 49k drop in 24, which was basically you can
just take that in the most simplest form of a fear climax where retail sells and someone obviously buys
and you get pushed back up into the range uh basically creating an emotional gap from the
people who sold to you know now they're very hesitant to re-enter the market which puts you
in that typical sequence of events of disbelief uh renewed optimism fomo and then euphoria and
even right now there's still a lot of disbelief.
If you look on Twitter and stuff, I think the most common sort of thesis out there is that
we're just going to deviate the highs, or maybe we top out at 120, 130, and that's the top.
Everyone's still top fishing, is what I'm trying to say. So the disbelief is still very high.
We haven't even
hit renewed optimism yet. And I don't think you'll get that until we probably push above 125
quite aggressively. And I think that's coming somewhere before like August, September around
there. I think it's going to go much higher than people expect. And then we do end up in that sequence of events of renewed optimism, FOMO,
and then we'll have the stage of euphoria. But that doesn't
mean that that's the cycle top. You can break that down into lower timeframes
whether it's an hourly chart, a four-hour chart, a daily chart, a weekly chart.
It's still the same psychology, just a different timeframe.
So I think that's going to be a local top, the next one that we have. But the setup is just great.
And with this chart, if you guys are looking at it, if you can see what separates 2024 and 2025,
the two setups that I've basically drawn stuff around, what separates that is the 100k rally we had or above 100k when Trump won the election.
And I made a post saying, once you understand that Trump bamboozled the market,
you're going to realize how much higher we're about to go.
So that entire rally and then correction, it was literally sell the news of Trump at the top,
you know,
front running all of the positive things that he's bringing to the market,
which he is actually going to bring to the market, right?
They're actually materializing right now.
And then at the bottom,
when he was, you know,
pushing the austerity route,
you know,
wanting to detox the market,
all this kind of stuff,
they were genuinely saying that in the open.
So that was a bit tricky,
you know, kind of to stay bullish, because essentially, they're telling you that
they're going to sort of deflate the market, which means asset prices go down. That's what
really bamboozled people, aka big money, they're not as nimble as retail as us, you know, let's
say with, I don't know, sub 1 million, sub 10 million portfolios,
where you can get in and out of the market very easily. And they have much larger positions,
client bases, things like that, and actual algorithms that trigger a risk-off response
or a risk-on response. And that's why they technically sold the bottom or created such
an aggressive sell-off because
everything was flashing to be risk-off.
You literally had the best investors in the world telling you they're going risk-off,
right?
But the one key thing that everybody missed was that they were saying they don't want
to crash the landing.
They're going to try and push this route, but if it gets too ugly, they're essentially
to try and push this route. But if it gets too ugly, they're essentially going to back off from
going to back off from this.
this. So as soon as we saw the bond market volatility spiking, the stock market nuking,
they quickly started backtracking. But again, you go back to that emotional gap that I'm talking
about of when you sell the bottom, you really disbelieve that rally that follows after because
you're just like, did I just sell the bottom? Am I wrong? And it's very hard to fight that bias. When you flip bearish, it's so hard to flip bullish again,
realizing the mistake that you've done. So that's what bamboozled the market.
And the good thing about that, about our bags is now that everyone's slowly starting to
incrementally understand what the playbook is. And they're going to have to pile in on top of
each other, which is why we're going to end up in price discovery and likely much higher prices. They're still piling in. They're still
offside. It was literally, it's the end of the United States exceptionalism. That was the
narrative at the bottom. So slowly piling back into the market now, it's just going to lead to
such a strong rally. You had the perfect setup for what's about to happen right now.
And we're just being validated by price.
We already knew the playbook.
Price is literally validating what we already know.
And slowly, the consensus will shift to extreme euphoria.
But we're just going to be way higher when that does actually materialize.
So the setup is literally picture perfect.
And then when you zoom into
crypto, you're having a perfect sequence of events as well. BTC is leading the rally. Bitcoin dominance
is showing signs of weakness by not completely rugging yet. That's good. We want Bitcoin to go
higher before that shift happens. Everything else is slowly trailing behind BTC. You've got ETH doing
well. ETH BTC is looking strong, but it's not completely taking
over yet. Alts are doing the same thing. They're creeping up from those lows, which I was saying,
you want to be buying lows, not buying the breakout, or you're just going to miss the first
double or triple even on some coins or 50%, 25%, whatever, which cuts down your gains essentially
when things do confirm, quote unquote. You want to be buying lows so you can get the most out of the upside gain, right?
If your thesis is clear for upside, why are you waiting for the breakout?
You should be positioning before other investors pile in on top of you.
That's the whole game of investing.
If you have a clear thesis, a very highly probable outcome based off of your analysis,
that gives you the confidence to bid with size
before everybody else. That's the whole point of investing. So yeah, altcoins are trailing
behind BTC nicely as well. And I'm thinking when we do start to get to these higher numbers,
let's say around 130, 140. For me, it's 130, where I think the trigger really does start to happen.
For me, it's 130 where I think the trigger really does start to happen.
You're going to have that shift on the ETH BTC chart,
which I'm just trying to find the post so I can quickly share it.
Just give me one second.
Sorry, guys.
Where is it?
I swear I posted it last night my old season triggers huh I have I
might have the perfect chart for you Donnie as far as the old season triggers
basically it's a here we go thank God I'll just post it. So you guys have it and you can save it basically one 30 K BTC. My reason for that is that one 20 K on the chart. If you get a,
for me, it's just a weekly close. If you get a weekly close above one 20 K, that's actually a,
uh, breakout of the range, the range being the one Oh nine K high that we had and the bottom at 74 K.
If you get a weekly close above 120k, that indicates that
you are breaking out of that range. Therefore, the expected order flow from there is higher highs
and higher lows as the trend continues. So 120k will confirm that range break. But I think 130k
is where people might be slightly inclined as that macro environment starts to materialize in investors' minds of like,
whoa, we actually do have a risk on window here. They'll start going further out on the risk curve.
You're already seeing it in stocks a little bit with solo stocks, the Russell doing pretty good.
But I think at 130k BTC, people might be inclined to rotate for further gains into ETH, into altcoins,
whatever. And you might start seeing that shift. And that
subsequently will trigger a weekly market structure shift on ETH BTC, which is not that far away,
0.03 on that chart, and below 58.5% on Bitcoin dominance, which to me, if you get below that,
that chart could rug pretty quickly. You might even lose the election rally low, which is around 54.7%.
And if you lose that, it's just open air towards like sub 50, pretty much.
You could even end up as low as 45%.
It can happen very quickly, as it always has every other old season when that chart starts to give.
It's very hard to stop that kind of momentum when that chart starts to give. It's very hard to stop that kind of momentum
when Bitcoin dominance starts to give
because it's essentially people taking profit out of Bitcoin
to get more gains elsewhere
because they're like, all right, it's at 130K.
I want to get another 2X on some of my profits.
Am I going to hold this till 260K
or am I going to shove it into ETH while it's 3K
and it's probably going to go to 6, 7, 8k it's just a rotation play
which starts to happen
when that environment, that green light
for risk is open
and yeah, 34, 400
is the level for ETH
where basically
if you cross that with a convincing break
I think it's headed towards
the all time high
pretty much, I don't think there's
anything that stops that because you've just had all of these triggers hit while ETH is hitting
that key level on the chart as well. So I also wrote here a bonus of DXY losing 97.8, which
actually happened before any of these triggers hit. And that's basically unlocking the next batch of
global liquidity, which it's a delayed effect, right?
By about three months, we'll see if DXY keeps trending lower from here.
But yeah, it's just everything is just so primed
and people are just refusing to believe it.
But again, you want that.
You want that disbelief.
And that'll slowly turn into renewed optimism
and everyone will get all excited again
when most of the gains are off the table anyway. So longer that they stay in disbelief the better and i think that's
the general consensus is that you know people are still top fishing here and not even just local
top fishing they're cycle top fishing which again what you said wabi you're saying a new cycle
started from 74k and 48 500500 on the S&P.
Well, technically it did
because you're having the macro expansion side of things.
They're signing trillions of dollars
that they want to essentially add to their debt.
And they're deregulating the banking system
to be able to tap into these trillions
whenever they need it.
And they want to ease interest rates.
Plus, we know the environment that's being created
is literally every other economy around the world
and their central banks have already been starting to ease
and they're going to further expedite that
as this environment keeps incrementally confirming.
It's literally a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
It's quite crazy, to be honest.
Yeah, Donnie, just to back that up up i also put something up on the nest which i tweeted from my personal account yesterday ladies and
gentlemen go ahead and click the spaces tab to check out anything that we discuss on these spaces
so if you guys click the spaces tab and look up uh on the jumbotron that little square thing some people call it the nest um
what i'm alluding to guys in this chart is uh the btc price on the one day with the 100 day and 200
day moving averages with some other smaller smaller moving averages and also the macd and the macd essentially went down to its lowest point in early april
um not seen since um since luna went to zero or ftx that is a full cyclical reset basically and
the momentum of buying right now is still lower than where we were at in December at 108k or even at
74k. So we can easily push up another 20% from here. So hope you guys find that actionable as
far as alpha and all that stuff. But yeah, I do consider it a new cycle, especially with the confluence that we have with the $5 trillion spending bill and also that backdoor QE that Bessent is going to do.
And Powell's probably going to quit at this point.
Like, it's pretty much written in stone.
We mentioned this on the Wednesday show, how there are now rumors of Fed chair people, Federal Reserve people saying that, yeah,
Powell's looking to quit. And usually things start in the rumor mill. Same thing with the election.
As the polls were turning to Trump's favor, the market started rallying. And it is what it is.
This market likes a front run. And this new Fed chair is probably going to cut rates by 2% from here to Q2 of next year.
Usually, Q2 is a bit of a slower quarter for businesses, given how crazy Q4 is.
Everyone gets overtime, extra hours at work, more deals get made.
And then in Q1, everyone gets their bonuses.
in Q1, everyone gets their bonuses. So Q2 is kind of a little bit of a slowdown. We've seen this in
So Q2 is kind of a little bit of a slowdown.
markets for years now, up until this quarter, up until this quarter too. So if Trump is out there
saying that the market is going to continue to boom, then fucking listen to him. He has a lot
more alpha than people that stare at charts all day. It's really that simple, right? And that's why with these charts that myself and Donnie put out,
feel free to follow Donnie, by the way, guys.
I'm sure most of you already do.
We like to post data that is concise and easily digestible.
So it does take some time to curate all of this
from what I've been doing over the last week, man.
But it's definitely worth it.
You get to help people amidst all this chaos, right?
You have talking heads on spaces from Fintwit just talking all kinds of nonsense.
I saw one guy who apparently LARPs as someone that mined Bitcoin in 2010,
talking about how now is a perfect time to induce a recession.
It's always so weird. How does Bitcoin going into price discovery? And Matt, you know who I'm
talking about, or I hope at least I know you do, but it's always those people that bought Bitcoin
at like 50 cents or a dollar that want everyone to go poor. And it's like, damn, bro, truly,
that want everyone to go poor and it's like damn bro truly sometimes sometimes people shouldn't
have as much money as they do because then they just go full on full on loon bro full on loon
uh have you ever did you ever see that movie from dr strange um it it's the one where the witches
i think it's uh what's that? What was that latest Doctor Strange movie?
You know which one?
Yeah.
The one with Scarlet Witch.
Yeah, I've got Scarlet Witch.
Yeah, the multiverse one.
Yeah, bro.
Like these people, the way they speak, it's like, man, you are straight out of a boondocks episode.
You must be from the Marvel Universe with the way you're yapping.
But Donnie, continue, bro. You were cooking. You must be from the Marvel Universe with the way you're yapping.
But Donnie, continue, bro.
You were cooking.
Oh, man, I forgot what I even said.
It's all right, man.
It's okay.
I was just on a roll there. But, yeah, by the time all of what we've been talking about essentially goes through the economic engine, it's going to be many quarters to go through the economy so that the voter
base that voted the Republican Party actually starts feeling these economic benefits that
Trump is promising and signing bills for, trying to get through and get it all flowing.
It literally takes many, many months, quarters.
So by the time rates are actually down 2%, small businesses start doing well, the business cycle picks up,
all this kind of stuff,
you're going to be looking at midway through 26.
So I don't know.
People are way too cynical, way too bearish.
Timeline's wrong.
Price targets are wrong.
I don't see what the hurry is for a cycle to wrap up here.
It literally doesn't make sense
if we're in an expansionary phase from now.
They just signed the bill. Like on bro yeah and something else man that that that really strikes me odd is how can you call a cyclical top when the business cycle is is not
even neutral yet you still have the fed having uh funds rate well above cpi you still have
quantitative tightening going on and even from an inflation adjusted perspective which is why i think
trump wants to go so pro-growth he actually wants um the indices to go well above their inflation
and their inflation adjusted all-time high and if you take the all-time high from the S&P that it set in January of 2022 at $4,800 or something like that,
inflation-adjusted, we're not even in price discovery.
I would say we're at pre-breakout, in my opinion.
Even with Bitcoin, we're barely at that same $69K level. Really? Even for Bitcoin, we're barely at that same 69K level.
Really? Even for BTC?
I think so. Inflation has gone up like 30 plus percent.
It's not really.
Can't you just run the chart?
Say that again? I'm sorry, Donnie.
Can't you just put it on a chart like M2 over BTC or something like that?
I haven't done that yet, man. Maybe that can be a chart that you can post,
like inflation adjusted all-time high and all that stuff.
But as far as M2, I know we still need a gap up like 25%.
That's what I saw when I was looking at at that on bb terminal i just haven't
posted that yet but um i think if you look at the euro like euro btc i don't think that um
is in price discovery still below that's actually that's got a lot of signal it's a much deeper
like kind of macro image that that thing's painting but yeah there's just so much more upside
to be had um and i shared uh i shared a funny meme in the uh nest that i posted uh yesterday
or something like that this one is hilarious right go go and look at that that's genuinely uh how i'm
thinking like yeah these people that are you know calling for cycle tops they can't actually define
what a cycle is. They've just
been in crypto for multiple quote unquote cycles. They don't know Bitcoin is the byproduct of the
liquidity cycle. And it just so happened to be every four years, ever since 2008. But that can
shift. It's not something that's set in stone. It's very, what's the correct word? It can deviate a lot.
But yeah, basically, it's just determined by that.
And again, if we're having the expansionary phase start now,
then how can you call for a cycle top in two months?
You're literally calling for impending doom
that nobody can see some sort of black swan or something like that.
When even with that, they said that if things get super volatile and super scary,
they have the tools in their toolkit
to bail out the system, which they always
do anyway. So even if
that were to happen, they're just going to inject the market
with crazy amounts of liquidity and we'll be
back up in no time, right?
I don't see the
crazy impending doom case.
It's...
Hang on, man. Let me ask Donny a question donny you work out right
yeah bro look bro so this is a message to all bears
right don't try and get by or you'll get dealt with and trapped and pack that you get it you know triceps biceps delts traps i only get it because this is the 100th
time that you've said it yeah i'd have to make a video bro i'm having serious
i think you said this exactly this time last year in july
yeah i just hope we don't repeat that same price action that we did
after Trump almost got killed where we hit like, what, 71K?
We were literally half an inch away from Bitcoin having a candle straight to 10K
if things went south that day.
But I'm going to have to do a video about that.
Maybe do some shrugs.
And then after I do my shrugs, I'll do what I just said.
I'd have to have some motion behind it.
But speaking of motion, jeez, man, I'm glad there's a lot of you guys here on the spaces.
Jeez, man, I'm glad there's a lot of you guys here on the spaces.
Usually over the last, I'd say, couple of months, probably since March,
we've kind of been range bound in our viewership between like 310, 380 people,
but we're pushing 500.
I think those are the numbers that we were doing back in Q4 when when like the market was uh hot and the market is hot right now man you have um hyper liquid and price discovery
spx 6900 is uh about to go into price discovery mog just absolutely shocking people um i think
that one has had back-to-back days of like 20 over the last week um and pengu as well i think pengu and mog
are one of the few all coins right now that are actually well above their um their their may highs
so i've been talking about pengu with the group for a minute probably one of the only vc coins that
for a minute probably one of the only vc coins that not only has all their supply out in the
market but they have uh audiences and consumer apps and tangible goods with their pudgy penguins uh
toys and all that stuff their app and they're they're also doing some RWA stuff, and they actually might have an ETF.
So the upside is probably a new all-time high, in my opinion. Even though it's such a high market cap token, it's one of those tokens that hardly any people talk about.
But I think it's up from the lows.
From the lows, it's up like—do, this thing is up like 500 percent from the april
lows and it's a high cap wow insane dude incredible matt what's going on bro welcome
how are you feeling um brother you've taken too many vacations man we could have used those funds for the chart
man you could have you could have gone full suzu but this is a 10x long and no but this is but this
is how confident i've been this is how confident you know uh you me donnie we've been talking all
winter all spring this is how confident i was that no
the lows were in if you bought under 80k you're sitting you know how fat and happy are you and
that was us so i mean if you bought under 80k bitcoin you know that like i'm gonna kick my
feet up i'm gonna enjoy this summer what do i what do i have to worry about i'll watch the i'll watch new rolling all-time high on top of all-time high from the beach from the coast
with a you know i had a lobster roll for lunch that's how i do it that's how we do so i mean
but yeah this is it's it's a beautiful thing we were um i think we were right on several different uh assets uh one of one that i think
was just pure signal in the spring was you're talking about april and may and the whole world
is worried about liberation day and tariff this and tariff that and you saw gold, largest asset class on the planet, right? You saw gold go on a 100-day, 100% up only blow off top, which is pretty impressive,
which is pretty impressive for a $20 trillion asset class.
And that was the signal that like there's so much money that's looking for a safe haven
and Bitcoin does not have tariff worries so that was just
one more piece of confidence I like lows in for Bitcoin if you've been sitting on a big bag of
cash or you came into some money pilot in now get it under 85k 80k 75k if you were lucky that was it. Matt, we also have the 100-day moving average and 200-day moving average.
It curled up.
They intertwined with one another right when Bitcoin made that higher low at $98k.
And both of those moving averages all have curled up so far this cycle before Bitcoin has pulled off a 50% move.
up so far this cycle before Bitcoin has pulled off a 50% move. And that comes right when the IWM
starts going in a bull market for the first time in years. That is a V reversal, a V reversal on
the IWM. Plus, you have ARK Invest, which is basically a proxy going into a bull market. It's up over 25% year to date. That's insane. You now have
low cap ETFs outperforming high caps, mega cap tech, which is indicative of the start of a growth
cycle. And what's crazy, Matt, is that we're not even in a neutral stance that that's what's shocking
that that's what's shocking so it's like right it's this it's this good you're you're absolutely
right it's this good and you can make an argument that uh the Fed is still being restrictive that
look at look at Fed's funds rate look how much higher it is above CPI, if you believe CPI. But let's just go ahead and take government at its
word. It's CPI is 2.1% or so. Well, Fed funds is four. So, I mean, we are clearly, if you take
them at their word, we're still restrictive. There's so much room to cut. There's so much
bullishness that's possible in the future cut. There's so much bullishness
that's possible in the future. So that's why I'm, that's why I was saying like, okay, uh, uh, tariffs,
um, trade, uh, embargoes, uh, it, it all seems to get postponed. It all seems to get negotiated,
kicked the can down the road, et cetera. So if that's not a problem,
and sure enough, earnings weren't a problem,
and the labor market's not a problem,
and you have the possibility of bullish Fed cuts in your medium-term future,
you've got to be long.
You have to get your money in.
You've got to be allocating,
not withdrawing, not selling out like what everything
was saying get long in the market um and it's and then and then as you pointed out at the very
beginning uh they signed that massive bill well yes there's yes there's some some extension of tax cuts and some spending and stuff.
But the biggest part of that bill was it's a massive increase in the deficit.
They're literally going to print, what, over $4 trillion new debt.
So that means your dollar is going to be worth less in the short term, not in the dissonant, medium or long term. But in the short term, you even know your dollar is going to be worth less in the short term not in the distant
medium or long term but in the short term you're you even know your dollar is going to get debate
so there was just no reason to be heavy in cash and light on assets so whether you were allocating
you know full point into bitcoin or other things on your watch list that was the move in the spring
and now that so yeah we i've just been a lot of us we've been pulling back and just
relaxing this summer because we got not a worry in the world i think uh donnie was spot on like
look look at look at how different this summer has been you know people are talking about selling
may and go away no may was one of the best months of of this year june was even better uh july
you're absolutely right i think we could go go, you know, next target that I
see is easily 125 sometime in the late summer. And then I've been saying over and over, I think
150 or better in fall 2025. There's just too much going for us. Last but not least,
we've got, here come earnings again, for all your biggest S&P 500 companies,
Meta, Google, Tesla, Apple, et cetera. They're all reporting in less than 20 days. That's coming up
fast. And there's just no reason to be bearish on these earnings coming out. You already know
the labor market has been strong, both private payrolls and government reports.
We've been adding jobs, more people with more salary, buying more goods and services.
These companies are all going to, once again, meet and beat their earnings.
These assets are going up in price.
So there's just, it's a hell of a year.
It's a hell of a year.
This is after a shitty 2021 summer, 2022 summer, 2023 summer, 2024 summer.
This is finally going to be a hell of a summer.
A nice, ripping, hot, red summer.
I mean, a red-hot summer.
We'll see where we go in price discovery but i'm with donnie like
this can go a lot higher a lot farther for a lot longer than any of us appreciate um so enjoy the
ride yeah i also think um price is just going to be very ruthless here i think it's going to be
pretty steep pretty sharp and not really give much chance to think about it or enter.
Just based on the way that the chart has been laid out
before this pump, it was, you know, I kept saying
it's just going to fucking squeeze when it goes
because there's so much liquidity building up below.
And then you had the perfect shakeout.
But now you still have people feeding the upside,
trying to enter short, upside trying to enter short literally trying to
enter short uh you know thinking that it's going to be a cycle top or 120 that comes the correction
or whatever donnie did you say squeeze bro oh yeah you got the shorts or oh sorry no i was
gonna say donnie did you just say the word squeeze yes so are you saying bears are lacking in concentration and they need some orange
juice i'm breaking out all the classics all the hits hey that's right man but these are the these
are the the 2022 classics man it seems that uh bears are about to get squeezed out of their
position so they need to focus on their concentration otherwise they're
just living in a world of pulp fiction honestly i mean we're going to keep liquidating right on up
uh you um i think the most we are we're going to keep liquidating straight up the most the most
famous one that everyone keeps talking about is that old boomer Jim Chanos. Idiots like this who have more
money than they know what to do with. And so what are they doing? What are they doing? They're
shorting micro strategy and beta plays to Bitcoin and longing Bitcoin, which is absolutely obviously
the dumbass opposite move you should be doing. You should not look bitcoin isn't a bull market you should not
be shorting anything that acts as beta to bitcoin because it's going to outperform it you know i
don't care if you're talking about strategy solana uh xrp anything that acts as beta to bitcoin in a
bull market you can't be short because it has the possibility of any week.
I'm not a fan of any, I'm not a fan of any altcoins, but any given week,
XYZ altcoin can go on an explosive run. Bitcoin might be up 5%, but some altcoin or some beta
Bitcoin treasury company could be up plus 50%. You just don't know. So that's why we're going to keep shorting all of these TradFi bears who think they're
going to like 3D chess this shit.
And I'm going to long Bitcoin, but I'm going to short these leveraged plays on Bitcoin
because their valuation doesn't make any sense.
Well, no one gives a shit if their valuation makes any sense because you're going to be
underwater and having to pay to get out of your position all the way up. doesn't make any sense. Well, no one gives a shit if their valuation makes any sense because you're going to be underwater
and having to pay to get out of your position
all the way up, all the way up.
So, you know, I do think that these Bitcoin treasury companies,
we're now in the triple digits, by the way.
There's over 130 of them now.
Some of them private, some of them public.
Some names you know, but a lot of them are even, you know,
raising $500 million and one plus billion dollar starter fund,
like starter positions,
a $1 billion starter position to buy Bitcoin is crazy.
But right.
But I think, so I think we've, you know,
we've been talking about this in the spring when people listen.
No one's going to listen to us when this is a hundred fifty thousand plus.
But I think eventually, yes, these Bitcoin treasury companies are going to give us a blow off top.
But that's months from now.
This is this is fall and winter talk.
You know, this is not summer, summer-time high talk well that's a problem
medium term long term from now so again just to wrap it up like yeah you're gonna trad fi
these these companies there's over 130 of them now they're so offensive to trad fi because they
just they don't have you know they don't they don't technically have a product. They have crazy valuations, you know, there but they're baited a Bitcoin.
So they're going to they're going to short these things.
They're going to get blown out.
They're going to have they're going to end up increasing Bitcoin's market cap.
And as Bitcoin goes up, it just floats all boats.
So I know there's a long there's a lot there.
Those long winded.
But just stay long.
This is going a lot higher than any of us probably can see right now.
And we just started.
We literally, this is just week one.
We just started.
Yeah.
Let's go, dude.
So, Matt, let me ask you a question, man.
So, Matt, let me ask you a question, man.
So would you say Q4 could potentially end up being like Q1 of 21 and then we have that full extra year of froth?
Because, again, right, here's the thing.
When the Fed goes neutral, I think they went neutral in 2017, that second half of 2017.
Yes.
Because they were raising rates. They were actually, for people that don't know, during the first half of 2017 when Trump got in, the Fed was actually raising rates.
But then during the second half, which is when we went bugzookas, the market just rallied like crazy.
the market just rallied like crazy so if we have that happen where the fed goes neutral we could
still rally throughout 2026 the fed is well let's be careful though let's be careful the fed
the fed is neutral right now the fed hasn't raised rates in years in fact remember that we had a 50-point reduction in rates late last 2024.
And a lot of people got mad because they thought that was kind of political being close to the election.
But that's neither here nor there.
The Fed hasn't raised rates.
They've only lowered rates in the last year and a half.
So we are at neutral now.
We might get rate cuts at the back half of this year, early 2026.
That's on the table. And that would absolutely be a juice and a sugar high and can send assets
another leg higher. Sure. But we're already neutral now. We're already neutral right now.
So the way I see it with Bitcoin, I hear what you're saying. The economy can stay good.
Companies can keep making money. The labor market can be strong. But for Bitcoin specifically, I'm just seeing so many
flywheel Bitcoin treasury companies that I really think are going to push price
way past organic demand. Because the higher Bitcoin price gets, the more buying power these treasury companies get.
So the more they're able to lever up and the bigger their next Bitcoin purchase is able to be.
So at a certain point, you're pumping and you're pumping and you're pumping price way past your everyday worldwide Bitcoiners are organically buying it.
And what can that mean?
What can that look like?
Well, just look at gold.
Look at gold right now.
So, you know, I was just talking to deaf ears.
No one's really paying attention.
But I kept saying in the winter and spring, gold is in a parabolic run.
This looks like a blow off top.
And watch 3,333 be the top it's still right about that price that was like over three four months ago that's that's what can happen so
like as everyone piles into a trade it doesn't mean that price has to collapse on the back side
of it but like for three plus months gold has just been at the same damn price,
just trading sideways.
Meanwhile, all the gold bugs are watching everyone else
cash in 2X, 3X, 5Xs as money moves farther out the risk curve.
That's what can happen for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin can go into a parabolic run here in the fall
and into the winter of 2025,
and then just trade sideways and consolidate on
the on the back half of it it doesn't have to collapse especially if the economy is good but
if these bitcoin treasury companies and other entities too but they get if they push this into
a blow off top you have to assume you're going to have a consolidation on the other side of it
yeah i mean that that meltup that we had in the
equity markets, Matt, I do think there's a, I really don't want to say this because I actually
do believe that the S&P is going to go to 7,000 by the end of the year. There could be perhaps a
lower timeframe period. I see Chud's, I'm going to send him an invite to speak, where you remember that the S&P and the McNasdaq, I think they drew down
for about eight weeks from August of 23 to October of 23 by about 11%, right? But I would say instead
of 11 weeks and instead of drawing down, maybe the indices can consolidate here for a bit while all the action is in crypto mode.
And by the way, Larry Finkelstein and his buddies at Wall Street are really pressing the green button on Ethereum.
So perhaps there could be a possibility where for the next few weeks, crypto can can really steal the spotlight.
And then we can turbocharge even higher for perhaps that local top that donnie's
talking about at 160 150k um that that can take us to those levels right the s p catching up and
then having that gap up by about 10 i truly think we're in 1997 i see the uh look at for ETH, for ETH and Solana.
I think this is 100 percent the people that Donnie was talking about earlier that sold the local lows on Bitcoin.
Maybe they sold 2024.
Maybe they sold in around spring Liberation Day 2025.
But I think people are piling into ETH and Solana because shit, I missed it with Bitcoin.
I didn't buy. I didn't buy back. I, I missed it with Bitcoin. I didn't buy back.
I didn't buy at 90.
I didn't buy 100.
I didn't buy 110.
Now it's in price discovery.
Shit, I got to catch up.
Well, damn, fine.
I'll buy ETH at 2,500 or 3,000.
Oh, fine.
I'll buy Solana at 150 or 175 or whatever.
Now they're going farther out the risk curve to catch up.
That's what I think is going on there.
And, you know, they could talk themselves into, well, you know, you miss Bitcoin at 100K,
but Solana still possibly is going to get a spot ETF.
And look at these Solana treasury companies like, you know, those narratives write themselves.
So you're right. You got you got two you got two you got two camps
of uh hope you've got the the bear copes that are shorting bitcoin because this has this looks
overextended it doesn't make any sense i think a local top and then you got the other copers that
are just going all right fine well i'll catch up and play xyz alt coin token whatever
and you know maybe i can make it back up as long as uh this this ass uh this token rises you know
so look we got a big cheds the big cheese cheds what's going on man last time you were on here we were pressing up against range
highs we were also discussing look crypto has a perfect setup to gap up to catch up to the qqq
and man what uh what an incredible time and there's a term that i love to copy from you chuds
which i'm not sure if you've seen my timeline whenever I say it. Is it no pants, no problem?
No, no, no.
I actually don't have pants on.
I have shorts.
And I don't mean that on a leverage perspective.
I mean I actually have shorts.
They're from Banana Republic.
They're actually quite smooth, actually.
I don't know what material they are, but they're actually quite smooth.
But outside of that, Chads, there's this phrase that you've
said over the last few years, which is an asset going well above its previous all-time high with
volume is not price discovery, it's price acceleration. And that's what we're seeing
right now with Bitcoin. We were range bound for about seven months, which really that's kind of been the theme for Bitcoin price action. We often find ourselves at a certain range high, whether it was 30K, 74K, or over the last few months, 108K. hundred ak but when we break out of that it's usually by say a five percent eight percent candle
then you have those last periods of lower time frame consolidation on the one hour or four hour
and then bitcoin just loves to do these moves where it gaps up by 15 20 percent and here we
are man on a friday and if we look back on how the last uh couple of weekends has have uh have
gone on there's a lot of price action in this crypto market, man.
So welcome back to the show.
How are you feeling?
And what are you seeing out there, man?
Great to have you on.
That's so formal.
Yeah, that's the thing with Spaces.
You got to kind of like switch it around, right?
I've been doing some streaming on Twitch.
Over there, I can be a bit more dynamic and all that stuff. But with Spaces, you kind of have to switch it around right i've been doing some streaming on twitch over there i can be a bit
more dynamic and all that stuff but with spaces you kind of have to switch it around right there's
a time and a place for for all kinds of uh emotion when explaining these markets man yeah emotional
damage too right yeah i mean dude the the chop um well not chop last summer was absolute chop it chops people to death but yeah i would say more so
consolidation over the last uh two months on bitcoin we hit 111 uh in the second week of may
and we didn't really do much up until yeah last week so but a lot of uh but that weekly
that weekly consult i dropped my phone that
that weekly consolidation was pretty clean and like it just allowed for the next move up but
what's notable is it was high and tight right like it consolidated near the like top third of the move
so while things were resetting short term you mentioned you know like different time frames
and all that you know one hour four hour four hour. It retained its price gains and really
only gave a brief kind of local entry for a day trader on that like 101, 100 and 101K recapture.
So it's been a pretty strong trend to watch. It's fun to watch. It was interesting listening to Matt
about the idea of people going into Ethereum and Solana and all that. I'm just not convinced yet.
It's an interesting thesis. I'm not convinced of that. I don't even really see that and Solana and all that. I'm just not convinced yet. It's an interesting thesis.
I'm not convinced of that.
I don't even really see that in Solana.
It's still a very beleaguered daily chart.
Ethereum, definitely some juice,
but still I want to see more follow-through.
There's been a lot of false starts on Ethereum,
certainly in relation to Bitcoin strength.
So yeah, I just want action.
You know me. I kind of don't care
i just like action you know sideways is boring so um but i was mostly just listening to before
i came on i mean you got a great panel always yeah man um have you looked at eth btc we're
actually getting some movement here. Never heard of it.
Yeah, but it's tried to break this range since late April.
It's a start, but it's just such a strong downtrend that I'm going to not jump the gun on it.
Yeah, it's getting started,
but I'd still rather be short this pair than long it.
Donnie, man, you have something to say save me
jeds do you think btc goes higher here what's up donnie um yeah i mean i think yeah i mean i think
you're gonna bet i think you'd you'd want to bet with the trend um i i was listening to people
talking about shorting and bulb i mean you don't want to short like a strong uptrend you want to
short a downtrend that bounced so if you're itching to short go find some like garbage altcoin and i
just put out a tweet actually i mentioned like graphite grt is setting up how like big point
may pause and consolidate before probably continuing up but i wouldn't short it right
i'm not going to fight a trend i'll take advantage of a move against the trend which would be like
some bad altcoin that bounced um you know it's the thing where like people's instinct is something's overbought like
so they want to short it right donnie and um the funny thing is like how do you become overbought
is to be bullish and trends tend to continue so you don't want to step in front of this train i
think it probably goes higher i wouldn't I definitely would not bet that Bitcoin goes lower, no.
Yeah, I think if you see continuation on BTC here,
because you had a nice rounding out of ETH BTC
at those lows there,
I think it's going to flip weekly market structure to bullish
if you're expecting higher on Bitcoin.
What are you saying?
You think Ethereum BTC could flip bullish weekly?
Yeah.
If BTC continues, which I think it will,
I think BTC is going to flip.
I mean, that would be kind of a best-case scenario
for a lot of people.
But that also usually signals
kind of the broader topping of the Bitcoin move
when they're both kind of running together
towards the end, I think.
But I just don't know if there's enough evidence evidence yet you know um i'm still just betting on bitcoin continuing
yeah like by the time you get the evidence though you're gonna miss the east right
not i don't know about that i mean it's not about for me at least and this is only just me
i don't want to nail the bottom i want to take it like a confirmed trend turn in the trend you
know i want to ride a trend and i want to get like the middle of the move the majority of the move just from a risk management perspective
and um i mean people have been calling top and dominance forever and bottom and ethereum ptc
forever i just still need to see way more to be convinced that's kind of just where i come from
fair enough fair enough but um i mean i probably am wrong like i'm wrong all the time you know i'm just kind of you know
that's just the approach that's worked pretty well for me um but yeah i mean it's nice to see
bitcoin breaking out i think um just again i wouldn't bet against the trend no i definitely
not against bet against bitcoin um but it is interesting to see what the rest of the market
is doing it's such a crazy market now too where it's like these memes are going crazy what do you think about the fact um donnie we're seeing like bitcoin cash bouncing
and xrp and trx leading the way right that that's that's interesting how does that factor into your
thought process so i actually just shared a chart which is um total two uh yeah yeah yeah i'll just
share it again yeah i just think we're having a catch up to BTC.
It's had a pretty long three-year dominance.
And the reason why dominance and ETH BTC are starting to flip
is basically the global easing of financial conditions,
which typically is what moves higher risk assets in this space.
When the macroeconomic environment starts to ease,
people just go further out on the risk curve.
That's why you're seeing the Russell
start to do a little bit better.
There's talks of potential rate cuts coming down the line
because Trump is really pushing hard for that.
If Jerome doesn't give them,
he's going to put in a new Fed chair.
They just signed $5 trillion
as an expansionary thing to their budget.
So I guess people are starting to get ahead
of that actually materializing
and starting to bid, right?
It's a risk on window.
And I think that trend will continue.
So these charts are starting to catch up.
Literally individual stocks
that lead crypto are running,
just like coin.
And I just think we're just going
to catch up so i think bitcoin dominance rolls and eftc flips if you're expecting higher on bitcoin
there's just no question about it in my head i think that'd be good for a lot of people i just
think that would benefit a lot of market participants if you're right um and i've kind of
been wanting that to happen i just haven't it, it hasn't happened, right? I keep like, you know, rooting for that scenario.
So, I mean, I'll just say, I hope you're right.
Yeah.
I mean, no two ways about it.
Hey, Wabi, can I plug my new playlist?
Uh, like music?
No, well, that's cool too.
But no, I started a new trading encyclopedia playlist on my YouTube
where I have three minute videos on like every conceivable trading and ta topic and i want people to go ahead man that's it
that's it just ched's trading i'm doing like a video a day and so if you look for something if
it's not there let me know i'll make the video like what's the stop loss how do you confirm it
was rsi just kind of like anything so i'm having fun with it and uh there you go i did my plug yeah that's cool
man dude i like collaborating with other content creators and i really think the number one thing
that people misuse this app is not collaborating like there's only yeah you can stay inside your
own head no you've got to branch out dude you've got to co-network um i try my best i'm doing a
couple interviews,
and I'll probably do an interview with you, too.
I'll bring in my YouTube if you want to do the long-form interview series.
Dude, that'd be sick, man.
That'd be sick.
That'd be awesome, man.
I'd love to do that. I've kind of been taking the back burner on my personal account
as far as content creation, building my own personal brand and
collaborating with other creators on their channels over the last 18 months and i'm kind
of shooting myself over the foot um over the foot or in the foot in the foot in the foot
i got i got i got really complacent man um i remember i was going on doing collabs with like Trader XO, SC and a few other people.
And I just got so, so, so complacent after that pump we had in Q1.
But now, dude, like now that I see the setup that the market has, I'm like, all right, man, now is the time to to make content as much as possible.
Good quality and entertaining content, because there's only so much that you can say, oh, Bitcoin's doing this.
Let's see what ETH is doing like people love love love love a story
And chads, I really do think bitcoin can continue to make moves here. I posted something up on the nest
I put the weekly on bitcoin with with the RSI and yeah
Yeah. And Bitcoin so far on the weekly does not stall until we get above like 70 plus on the RSI.
Yeah, yeah and bitcoin so far
And that move that we had in Q1 of last year, that was one of the more explosive moves.
But if you've seen, we haven't even gotten close to some of the levels that we hit on the rsi
last cycle well if you look at look at 2020 2021 look at the price acceleration once yeah that was
insane weekly right so just to caution people i wouldn't like don't think like that's bad if it
hits 70 rsi that may be the beginning of kind of a parabolic or exponential move even you know from that level
so weekly rsi is attempting right now to re-enter the power zone we're kind of on watch for something
called a rsi failure swing where the rsi leaves the power zone and attempts to re-enter it
um so i want to want to i would want to see that happen here otherwise that might be a
potential cautionary signal yeah guys if you want to check out what
me and chad are talking about go ahead and click the spaces tab once you guys do that you'll see
all our cool profile pictures look above up on the little square whether you want to call it
the nest or jumbo chon i really don't care but go ahead and do that and right uh at that post
or my personal profile there's uh the chart that we're talking about. So, you know, Bitcoin is now reaching, as Ched likes to say, price acceleration.
And you'll see where we bottomed out on the RSI in early April when we bottomed out at 73K.
than where we were when we had that catastrophe almost happen with the yen carry trade back
in early August of last year. So the fact that we're still not trading on the RSI above 70,
where we were at when Bitcoin was going towards 85K plus, and we're actually trading higher on a numerical basis on Bitcoin,
we can gap up really quickly to some of the levels that Donnie has mentioned,
140, 150K.
Personally, myself, I think like 130-ish, where I think the 1618 is at.
I think that might be kind of some resistance there.
I know, Tati, you're giving me the thumbs up.
Can I challenge you on that?
Can I challenge you on that?
What's the challenge, Chad?
Well, it can be the resistance.
There's no price action.
There's no history there.
And like a fib level or even just a measured move in classical charting, like the height of a consolidation range.
consolidation range like those are nice but i call want to caution people when you think about
Like those are nice.
a target you you there's a danger of convincing yourself it's probably it's going to get there
and then you're going to ignore some immediate clues with the price action let's say bitcoin
does some nasty business at 120 122k but you're you think it's going 130 you might miss that
so you know especially in price discovery price targets i think are pretty much
useless like that third nipple you know what i'm saying donnie what's going on man i i saw some
uh concerning emojis on on uh on your psp brother what's going on bro i'm gonna ask you a question
bro when are you gonna look donnie donnie donnie donnie look look before you ask you a question, bro. When are you going to flip bullish, bro? Donnie, Donnie, Donnie, Donnie, Donnie, look, look. Before you ask me a question, I want to tell you this.
I need to have you acknowledge this.
I know the answers to questions that people don't even know how to ask.
When are you going to flip bullish, Wabi?
Brother, I've been bullish since 74K.
Let me ask you again, bro. When gonna flip bullish bro 130 and you're that bullish yeah okay all right you're calling for a melt up yes yes yes okay i'll i'll revise 130 next week
bro by the looks of it doesn't doesn't it feel that way though it always
when it feels like bitcoin can't stop going up that's when it consolidates so
and you know what's funny guys you know what's funny bitcoin is going into price discovery when
superman is in theaters i i i i don't think that's a coincidence to be honest the ptsd is insanely
high everyone is hesitating i'm in so many, I'm in about three
group chats with hedge funds around the world.
They were saying, you know, we might hit
112, 111 and we're going to
roll to 90k. They're literally hesitating
to enter on this rally. I just think it's just going to
keep going. You have Global M2 up and to the
right. We still haven't priced in the entire
DXY nuke. They just signed in 5
trillion, which deletes the left
tail risk that they were going
to run before that expansionary phase where they were saying, we're going to detox the market and
all this kind of stuff. That is literally risk on signal. And that's why everything is up and
to the right. It's going to continue. How do you just reverse that? You can't.
You literally can't. This rally should go from 138 to 182 on btc
eth should probably hit 4k this month eth btc will flip bitcoin dominance will start to roll
donna you're threatening me with a good time bro no one believes it no one believes it but all of
the macro is literally pointing this direction and i guess by the time everyone uh accepts it it's just going to be you know way
deeper into price discovery i i think i uh i put my goal posts uh for quarter three and it was 130
k btc and i think 3 800 eth um but uh what what would drive me donnie, is if we have similar price action to what we saw in Q1.
Like if we have some follow-through and we gap up to like $125 this weekend, brother, by all means, $150K.
I'm right there with you by mid-August.
That's usually when volume kind of peaks out for Q3, usually mid-August.
Because even in 2017, when we were rallying in Q3, it was mid-August where that was the meat of the move.
And then volume comes back after Labor Day.
And then it's just up only after that.
But, man, Donnie we if we hit those price targets
geez dude you're gonna have hedge funds asking you to work for them bro they are asking me bro
that it's gonna get to that i'm not i'm not i'm not trying to be overly confident i'm literally
just trying to explain like the macro playbook is literally pointing up to the right and then
you have the technicals on the chart on every single chart that is confluent to the setup,
literally 15 to 20 charts telling you the same thing. And then you have the sentiment and
disbelief. I just don't see how the setup gets any better than this. And then above 120k,
you have the range break from 109 to 74k, which is technically a distributive range. So if you
stay within that, it's looking bearish.
You get above 120,
that goes out the window and the price targets
open up to about 145k.
So, you know, we're very
close to that. We're knocking on that. And I just don't
see how it stops here.
Yeah, I think
we're going to go risk
on. I agree with Donnie here I've always agreed with
Donnie I love when Donnie speaks every time he speaks I he tells me I'm gonna be rich out of my
fucking mind I swear I've been following him since he has like a couple thousand followers
the best is the best thing I've ever heard in my entire life. I cannot wait. I'm so excited.
I made all the right bets.
I just feel like the smartest person in the world right now.
I feel like anybody who's positioned correctly feels like a fucking genius right now.
Like, I am fucking pumped right now.
I am excited.
I think we're still going to get that run from ETH.
That sneaky run, but not so sneaky
because i knew it was gonna have a run just to know when and i think that i am just uh you know
what people didn't think about i think i was the only person that was paying attention to coinbase
stock like content creator wise back in the bear i bought the bottom so i'm having a fucking
time on my foot motherfucking life right now um so i think that and you know what for people who
don't like tons and tons of risk even though i think we're going risked on i think i would bet
my life on it you're gonna see a lot of companies ip IPO during this run when things start to get crazy
you're gonna see a lot of um crypto companies start to IPO but I would not buy with with my
coinbase stock strategy when it IPO'd I remember somebody close to me called me they said are you
gonna buy the IPO I'm like oh my god no I think it IPO'd around 250 something like that. Because usually like six months after the IPO,
I just noticed a lot of the time there's just,
it's kind of like you have that like initial hype on the stock
and then it corrects.
So I waited to buy it.
So the bear, I think you're going to have a lot of opportunities
with a lot of crypto companies IPO-ing.
So just looking at the stock market,
aside from crypto, I'm going to put a bunch on my watch list when they IPO and probably buy it six
to eight months out after they IPO. I think it's pretty solid. So I think that's something that
I've been looking at because as far as the market goes, I'm pretty much priced in. Like I already have all my bets. Like I'm not really looking to accumulate.
Maybe I'll open, you know, some longs or maybe I'll try and be a badass and short the top
whenever I think that is. But I'm pretty much in the market. I've been in the market.
I've been accumulating, you know, ETH and all my top ETH plays, you know, ETH memes as a, you know, as a better multiple.
And yeah, I personally agree with everything Donnie's saying, you know, like it's, it's never
what people think when everybody is saying, you know, this is the top or this is it, whatever.
It never happens. It's always something something else like they got a lot of people
last full run when people said bitcoin was going to 100k last full run when 68k was the top it
kept a lot of people in the market and a lot of really smart smart intelligent great technical
analysis guys got it wrong last cycle so sometimes when I hear like there's a consensus on something,
I'm more prone to do the opposite. There was a consensus earlier last year that ETH was cooked.
It was never coming back. I've never been more bullish in my life when I started hearing that.
I was like, there's no way. And so, yeah, so I think that we are going to go risk on. I think
that this is going to be an amazing bull run.
And I think you got to take advantage of it this time around though,
because I don't know if the next bull run is going to be quite like this one.
I think this is going to be the golden bull run right here.
And because you're going to have a lot of regulation next bull run, we're already seeing like the laws getting passed,
like that stable coin bill getting passed like when the bear market eventually hits you know these hedge fund guys
they've never seen a 40 correction in life they're gonna lose their mind it's it's gonna be like
like doomsday like the end of the world and i think you're gonna see a lot of regulation come
in next bond so i think you got to take advantage of it here.
But one thing I'd like to ask Cheds and Donnie is here's where I don't,
I'm not a hundred percent sure.
When do you think the top could be?
Are we looking at 2026?
I'm not so convinced we're going into 2026.
I don't know.
Go ahead, Donnie.
Yeah, sorry. I was going to let you go. I was going to't know go ahead don't yeah sorry i know i was gonna let you go i was gonna i'm just
gonna i mean i don't know i don't think anybody knows i i also tend to not think in terms of that
to try to predict it i mean intuitively it kind of makes sense um but um you know anything can
change all we have now is just a clean steady consolidating You know bitcoin uptrend and you know altcoins writ large may turn around
Ethereum may start to do well, but um, it's hard to really get predict out. I mean, but your guess is as good as anybody says
You know, that's what I would say
I shared up in the nest the post I made in like late May. It's basically when the Trump playbook started to fully come into play.
And the only way you're going to find the answer to when,
and you'll be able to narrow it down much closer to the time
as everything unfolds, because again, there's a lot of moving parts.
It's all macro driven, right?
So the Trump
admin flipped pro-growth, pro-markets, and they want to continue this large fiscal deficit, right?
They also want to deregulate some of the highest growth sectors we've ever had, AI, robotics,
crypto. And they're throwing on these tax cuts. But what you can see from BlackRock and the United
States government is that they're essentially marketing this asset class to the world. They're also engineering the macro environment globally
to be very inflationary so that the solution to the problem that they're causing is the thing
that they're going to market to the world, which as you've been hearing from Larry Fink's mouth,
he's saying, if you want to hedge against inflation, if you're worried about this,
if you're scared about that, these geopolitical issues, all this kind of stuff, look to Bitcoin,
right? So that was kind of the first phase where they're giving the playbook away. But now it's
the macro alignment part that's starting to unfold. So if they want to outpace their debt,
how Scott Besson's been saying, they're essentially going to have to push 6.6%
GDP to hold a constant debt to GDP ratio. So that level, that figure, that nominal GDP right there,
you've essentially only seen that three times in recent history, the dotcom bubble in 2000,
the housing bubble in 2007, and pretty much the COVID bubble, which was just everything go up
in 2021, right? Because hitting
6.6% GDP requires massive stimulus, which is highly inflationary. That's the setup we're going
into. So based off of all of that, and all of this taking many quarters to actually trickle
through the economy, for this to actually materialize in the economy, you're looking
at a timeline in 2026, how is it going to wrap up in three months? If we're in the expansionary phase now, you're literally have everything aligned as well,
even the main macro lever to this entire picture, which is the DXY. It's blown out since COVID
above 100 for three years. And it's the first time it's lost that key level on the chart,
100, and is looking to trend towards 90 or potentially even below 90. That's then a 17
year macro shift on the chart, which we've only seen since prior to the gold ETF where gold actually
went on a massive bull run for like 10 years or whatever from 2000 to 2011. And the ETF came
through in 2003. Now you've got the Bitcoin ETF, the US government and BlackRock marketing this
thing to the entire world. And subsequently everyone jumping in on top of the train. So essentially, they're creating the macro environment
for an asset bubble, while marketing the greatest hedge against that environment, which is highly
inflationary. So to me, I think there's high chances of 2026, and way higher for way longer,
essentially. That's that's kind of my thesis all right i'm curious to see
if you're right on that because uh you know how highly i think of you but um the i'm not convinced
yet but i think we got to see what the fed's gonna do but it's interesting to me and my god i hope
you're right i'm i'm waiting for the day. Donnie, you're going to say now we're going to 250 Bitcoin.
Like, let's fucking go.
Like, I am.
I'm so ready.
But yeah, so I'm going to monitor it closely, you know.
But I was also anticipating maybe I wasn't sure when the top was when we started out this year, to be fair, because there was a lot of things that were still uncertain.
And I thought,
okay, maybe it'll be Q4. And now, after everything I explained, and I've been watching it,
watching what's going on, you know, it's a different bull run. People have to remember,
every bull run, people say, but it's different this time. And then it never happens. But this time,
it actually is different, though, because of all the policies, the ETFs. So I get people when
they're like, yeah, they say that every bull run, but this bull run, it's actually true that it is
actually different this time. So I think that's why I like to play the game till it's over.
So I'm just kind of monitoring and watching a number of things.
But I was just curious to see what you were thinking,
because I thought you were going to say that, that we were going into 2026.
Because if you asked me at the beginning of the year,
I would have said there's no way that's going to happen.
And now there's so much that has happened this year.
We're seeing a lot of different shifts.
And I think that, yeah, it's possible.
I'm curious.
I was planning on buying in the bear next year, but we'll see.
But yeah, I'm not sure what you don't believe there.
Because if I were to tell you that last cycle, we had an expansionary phase in 2020 when
they were signing $3 trillion here, $3 trillion there to make up for all of the damage that COVID was doing. And then we had a crazy inflationary cycle
to where the Fed then pivoted to hiking rates, the fastest time in history, which that is
contracting liquidity, taking it out of the system, making money less accessible,
credit less accessible. We live in a credit-based system. That's why we cycle topped. That's the top of the liquidity cycle where money dries up. We're having the expansionary
phase now. And I'm telling you, it's going to take multiple quarters for all of this to trickle
through the economy before they ever look to pivot to tighten liquidity again, because they're
wanting to have a pro growth pro market regime. They're wanting to do these tax cuts for low to
middle income people. They want to get reelected in November of 2026 in the midterms. This is why they need
to act now and deliver those results before that, which like I'm saying, it's going to take multiple
quarters for all of this to materialize. Therefore, you end up in 2026. And they've just removed the
opposite playbook,
which was to go through the detox period now and find another route out of this debt problem
that they have, which was austerity, which means to detox these markets, draw liquidity
out of the system.
Everything would have corrected.
We would have gone through a mini recession and then come out of it a different way.
They want to reshore manufacturing, super high tariffs, all this kind of stuff.
They've completely pivoted to outpacing the debt which is highly inflationary and again it's going to take multiple
quarters for all of this to materialize so there's no cycle top in sight because we've actually just
started the expansionary phase i like it's it's not it's not my opinion like this is the actual
evidence and data if they pivot from that I'll be able to see it.
I'll see it materializing on the chart.
I'll call the top earlier if it comes earlier.
It's just nowhere in sight.
No, I like it.
I like it.
Now you say it's not an opinion.
I love it.
I play poker, Donnie.
I was trying to get the information out of you, see where your head's at.
You just gave me a lot of information there, and I loved it.
It was great. I like what you're saying i see it and um i think
yeah i'm gonna look into that because i love everything you just said i'm somebody who
even if everything's aligned sometimes there you know in the crypto bond there's always something that comes out of left
field that people can't foresee and uh so uh that sounds pretty good though i'm gonna look in all
your charts and stuff but it seems like that could pretty much be i gotta do my research on it but
that'd be the one thing that i'd say it's not 100 is there always seems to be something come out of left field and kind of
buck shit. The thing that could cause, I guess, an earlier bear market for a crypto or something
like that would be if we go way higher with velocity. So if we start pushing 200k or 200k
plus this year, then I would be wary because you've simply just gone up so much that people are up too much money, you're going to have a massive correction. But that still
doesn't mean that's the end of the cycle. It just means you're going to have a massive correction,
reaccumulation, and then we'll see what happens from there. So the only argument against that,
against some sort of like nuke happening is literally you got to go much higher first.
And then you could have an unwinding of people
who are levering up to buy BTC
where that comes tumbling down very aggressively.
And again, be able to see that before it happens.
The markets are actually predictable
if you can get the right info
and cut the noise and see the signal.
Yeah, I'm excited.
Checks out, checks out for sure.
I mean, I'm just happy either way.
I put a meme in the nest for you, Ragsy. I did, I saw excited. Checks out. Checks out for sure. I mean, I'm just happy either way. I put a meme in the nest for you, Ragsy.
I did. I saw that. I should have liked that. That did come to my time. I should have liked it.
And then we told them the cycle tops every four years in Q4.
Yeah. Well, you know, originally when you were on MySpace as Donnie, I didn't think it was going to be Q4.
Donnie, I didn't think it was going to be Q4.
I actually thought there was a potential for Q3.
And I think you were the one who said it was going to stretch into Q4.
But I didn't think you said the top would be in Q4.
So I just play the game until I think it's over.
And I actually don't know.
I don't have a solid prediction when the top's going to be.
That's why I was very curious and interested in
everything you were saying just there, because I can't actually see exactly what you're saying,
that it's not necessarily going to be the same thing to the TQ4. A lot of things has changed,
but he's also got the data and evidence there to show it, to show that we're going risk on.
there to show it, to show that we're going risk on. I think it's very possible. And as we know,
like, you know, with Trump, you know, is very pro crypto. A lot of these hedge funds are very
crypto. They're making a fortune, by the way. BlackRock's making a fortune. I don't know if
they want this bull run to end, you know, so I kind of believe this time it really could be, you know,
they were saying it last bull run.
They were like, oh, no, it's going to keep going,
and it's an extended bull run, and everybody was wrong.
But this bull run, you see, that could actually be correct
because it's a different game, and it's different players this time around.
And with the data he just provided, I could really see that
being the case. And I'm excited though, either way, I am so stoked. Even with ETH going up just
like the 3k, even though that wasn't the high for the cycle, I'm just like so stoked. I can't wait.
And yeah, guys, I think like, this is the cycle you got to take advantage
of like 100%. And if you're, you know, later to the game or whatever, I said, I think there's
going to be a big opportunity that no one's thinking about when these companies IPO.
I don't think the opportunity is when they IPO. I think getting some of these stocks that I think will, you know,
IPO in the bear market is going to be a nice, safe, you know, crypto related opportunity.
That's essentially what it did with Coinbase. And it was like, one of my best, one of my best plays,
I guess, this cycle. So,, yeah, that's all my thoughts.
But I appreciate you, Donnie.
Well, man, I think it's a good time to wrap up.
What did you say, Donnie?
I think we covered pretty much everything, right?
We've been going for close to two hours now.
So, guys, I want to thank you all
so very much for tuning into today's show shout out to all the speakers donnie ragsy big chads
matt thank you all so much for tuning in if you guys enjoyed today's stream over the last two
hours and you're thinking to yourself man i really like what the panel has to say i want to keep up
with uh with the shows that they do well guys, you can feel free to follow us.
We produce multiple live streams throughout the week, Monday through Friday.
First stream is our morning show. That's our T.A. show.
So for those of you that like charts and graphs and all that good stuff, feel free to check out that show and feel free to check out our afternoon show called Market Talk.
That's usually hosted by me Monday through Friday.
Our morning show starts at 11 a.m. EST to 11.15 a.m. EST start time.
And then the afternoon show start time is usually between 4.20 to 4.45 p.m. EST.
Both shows go on for about an hour, hour and a half.
And Market Check is hosted by some of our analysts at bb it's
usually a rotation so some days you might see uh a different pair of guys and the other day you might
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alternate in a circle um or a straight line whatever you want to call it circle line whatever
we alternate uh and then market talk is usually just hosted by me and donnie's up here pretty much almost every single time we uh
host a space here and i like to have some of the some of the same set speakers i haven't really
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any suggestions for people that you want to see on the show, feel free to send us a DM and all that good stuff.
What's up, bro?
Sorry.
Sorry about that, guys.
I just ran into an old friend.
I'm out here in front of my outside of my condo.
Someone I haven't seen in years.
But either way, guys, we love to talk about markets, crypto, stocks, all that good stuff.
We usually talk about anything that's
tradable honestly and feel free to follow donnie and all the other speakers uh spaces are recorded
as always and guys feel free to check out our trading terminal called bb terminal i'm gonna go
up ahead and put put it all up on the nest we have various indicators we have packages
for you guys whether
you're a beginner intermediate or advanced and of course check out our degen section if you guys
use products like deck screener feel free to check that out you'll also be able to execute orders
on chain so essentially what we're building out here is uh is a dex so that should be fun that
feature does go live in the next week or so
And I've pinned some videos up above if you guys want to check that out
So if you have any questions in regards to that you can always DM us and we'll get back to you within 24 hours
And if you want to check out our inner circle group where myself and all the other BB guys are super active in there
We cover all sections of crypto
Feel free to check that out and feel free to check out Donnie's group as well he's a giga chad to be honest been uh loving these last couple of months
to win these shows with him he runs a pretty tight ship there as well so feel free to check
out any of our links guys all in the bio so y'all have a good rest of your weekend i'm gonna
go ahead and eat guys thank you all so very much for tuning in but before I
close out the stage here once again feel free to check out the nest usually
during these shows we like to put a lot of content up on the nest so just go
ahead and click the spaces tab check out some of the stuff that we've up and on
there from BB terminal from Donnie's profile my own personal profile feel free
to give BB terminal follow feel free to from Donnie's profile, my own personal profile. Feel free to give BB Terminal a follow.
Feel free to give Donnie a follow.
Feel free to follow my personal profile as well.
We'll see you all on Monday.
But, guys, if you want to check out my own personal live stream,
I'll be going live on Twitch Saturday and Sunday at 4.30 p.m. EST.
It's going to be pretty lit, going to be very lit.
And finally managed to get some pretty cool guests on for next month.
So that should be fun.
I also think Donnie, Donnie, are you still coming on on Sunday by any chance?
At 4.30, the Sunday stream for Twitch?
I'm not sure if he's still a speaker.
But nonetheless, I think I have Donnie on on Sunday.
But if anything, perhaps Monday.
But either way, guys, have a good rest of your weekend.
God bless you all.
Take care.
Bye-bye. Thank you.
