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Market Talk- BTC at 74k!! Bear Market is here!? Where is the bottom!?
Recorded: Feb. 2, 2026 Duration: 1:43:09Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts analyzed the current market downturn, with Bitcoin and Solana retesting last year's lows. Despite the bearish sentiment, Sandisk has shown remarkable growth, reaching new all-time highs, while Ethereum's critical price levels could signal further declines. The conversation highlighted the volatility and unpredictability of the crypto market, emphasizing the need for cautious trading strategies.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Don't look down, just keep your head or you're finished.
Open up the limit.
I've reached the top, but still you gotta learn how to keep it.
Hit the wheel and double the stakes.
I'd ride a while, but like I'm right out of hell.
You crash the game.
You crash the game.
I'm calling for the back of the yard.
Nothing gonna stop it.
There's nothing that's going.
So you're close.
Now he's nearly at the brink.
So we'll check.
Ooh, yeah. Yeah.
Welcome to the limit take you maybe one step more
I'll keep still playing
so we better win Oh Oh, yeah. . Thank you. Welcome to the limits.
Welcome to the limits
Stand on the radio
Don't look down, just keep your head
You'll be there
Welcome to the limits
Push into the limits Pushing to the way Pushing to the way
Pushing to the way
Pushing to the way
Pushing to the way
Yo, what's going on, guys?
Happy Monday or Tuesday.
Man, the market is absolutely imploding over the last uh 48 hours
man we saw solana and btc retesting last year's lows i actually think bitcoin actually made
a slightly lower low versus uh where we had bottomed out in April.
And, man, I want to give props first to Evan.
Evan has been up here almost every time that we've gone live
over the last, I would say, month and a half,
basically since we were ranging between 80 and 90k and even when we tested 97
um he was still in the camp mostly that ethereum would start testing the 2k range and it's exactly
what uh eth did and i didn't really think we were going to make lower lows honestly but that's what
makes the market right people that are right people that are wrong, and people that just step away because they really don't know where the market is headed.
And, you know, over the last few months since the market got absolutely shredded by October 10th and that massive $50 billion, $40 billion liquidation,
40 billion dollar liquidation i've tried my best to have differing opinions up here and hopefully
I've tried my best to have differing opinions up here.
uh hopefully you guys have been entertained and um have seen that some people that have been up
here have actually been right on the trajectory of the market uh specifically to crypto but um
i think one of the only things that is still chatting um despite broader market conditions has been sandisk sandisk has hit yet another
all-time high i think sandisk is about to have the highest close and flip that uh post hours
earnings uh that it hit last week which is honestly insane man um i've said it before over the last couple of weeks here a couple of months
that sandisk is like basically the the stock version of uh of luna of what luna was last
cycle except it doesn't really have uh the pawns and omics effect with the staking and the whole loop with UST printing and all that stuff.
But yeah, BTC 74, ETH hit like 2200.
Solana, I think that's like the one that everyone has been looking at.
Solana at sub 100.
And if Solana actually breaks that low and we see a weekly close below, actually close below 100 or even worse, 90, then you probably see a capitulatory wick.
And perhaps the market right now is just going to run back the 2025 playbook and just nuke the market as quickly as possible going into the spring.
And perhaps Q2 is when the market starts to recover.
Usually over the last few years, with the exception of what happened last year,
typically after markets bottom out,
you usually have at the very least a multi-week base to accumulate.
And I would not be shocked if the equity markets start pulling back here, even if it's only a small 10% correction on something like the S&P, which is green on today.
That's like it. That's the that's the funny part.
You actually have equity markets bouncing after their Friday dip, whether it's crypto. It's just been relentlessly nuking. So we saw that pattern happen last year.
around this time.
You had the equity markets still kind of making these slightly marginal highs,
whether it's crypto was just getting decimated.
And we're seeing this price action even after Saylor unloaded a clip.
And I find that so funny.
Anytime BTC has these gnarly corrections,
and it's been a while since we saw a correction on BTC of over 10% within a 24-hour time period.
And then it's like, oh, sailor bought, and people saw that sailor bought, right?
Like people in the shadows, and they're like, you know what?
Let's go ahead and just nuke the market, right? That's kind of been the trend over the last couple of years.
Sailor always buys the small local top, even if it's just a tiny bounce.
And I'm looking on chain right now.
There's practically nothing that's trending on chain.
There's practically nothing that's trending on-chain.
We had another small AI thing that lasted a few days on base.
And I think on Friday it was, on Friday's show, myself and Prometheus were talking about how on-chain right now,
the market is essentially the same participants from solana going over to
base and then back to soul with with with the same kind of chart pattern there there's there's like
a two to three maybe four day at max pump and then within a few days everything just implodes
And then within a few days, everything just implodes by 80 to 85 percent.
And these charts don't let anyone get in.
And I think one of the main guys from Clanker literally flooded his own project, saying that he was going to fork.
And then Clanker just had one of the gnarliest pullbacks ever.
And I do think Banker was actually close to making an all-time high, though.
It's probably one of the only AI coins that is sustainable long-term.
I think with every AI transaction on base,
Banker gets those fees and it gets injected into the chart.
And it's really just Banker and virtuals.
I know some of our guys like Jackis and Louie like Banker, BankerBot.
But outside of that, there's really been nothing. And over the last, let's say over the last two months, almost everything that's trended
on chain hasn't really lasted for more than three to four days.
Even that pump on 6.7 coin, what happened was the snap of a finger.
Same thing happened with Penguin.
Same thing happened with those few AI coins on Seoul and now on base it's really just been white whale that had that
that multi-week uptrend where it allows you to actually scale in and you know I'm sure I missed
a few other stuff I saw this but going thing on Seoul there's always going to be like those weird pockets of memes or other
products on chain on solana specifically on solana they go to like they they usually have
these ceilings between 15 to like 40 mil just below 40 mil and then they have like three voices
that are always tweeting about it and all they do is they just help their audiences cope while they get farmed and they rug it back to like two mil, five mil.
And they move on to the next one.
So it's honestly just farming season.
That's what it is.
It's farmer season.
And if you miss a coin and you see it at like 15 mil, 20 mil, you probably missed it.
And it's really strange to see things on chain still move despite Solana actually,
or if this is the bottom, right?
If I really don't know, I'm not confident in it.
At this point in time, especially with that weekly and monthly close that Bitcoin had,
I just don't feel, I don't think anyone is confident in holding anything for more than a
week with size on chain um as long as solana is performing the way it is same thing um with btc
and eth i think we actually need to see um things like ETH BTC rally like they did last summer.
That was PVE. You had every sector in the market rally. You had memes, you had fundamentals,
you even had some AI stuff like Tibber rally, like crazy. I think that we got to return back to tradition, honestly. But crypto right now,
it's kind of like a balloon that's having hot air right now. You have to let the air
flush out and then you can actually bid. But I think some good signs is that we're actually
seeing some volatility. Even if it is to the downside that we're actually seeing some volatility, even if it is to the downside.
We're actually seeing some volatility.
And one of the funniest things happened, I think it was on Friday or Saturday, where there was a clip of CZ going around Twitter.
And he was saying how I was a big believer in the super cycle.
And he was saying how I was a big believer in the super cycle.
But now, because so many FUD attacks are thrown against me, I don't think that's going to
happen.
Because when you have a bunch of participants in crypto start to FUD others, it creates
a negative effect and it could affect price action. And then within 24 hours, the prices just start to deflate rapidly,
rapidly in this environment, right?
I think David has been up here saying that, like,
volatility in this asset class has gone down to a three or something.
I have no idea what that means, but basically it implies,
short story from what I understood, that volatility is essentially, it was basically becoming dead, right?
And when it does come back, it's going to shock people.
And I think this is price action that shocks people because, and you'll see during the second half of 2019, you still had the indices mark up.
You still had Tesla melting up.
You still had Amazon melting up.
Whether it's crypto, it was essentially in an eight-month
downtrend. We peaked in June of 2019, and we didn't bottom until COVID. And equity markets
were still chatting for months and months and months up until that local top. I think it was in
mid to late February of 2020. So we have seen this kind of price action before. And usually it entails that
you need a new marginal buyer. I think you need a new wave of like unsophisticated buyers
that maybe have gotten rich on some of these AI names in the equity markets,
and they plug into crypto. You now have Michael Saylor underwater for the first time ever.
He has bought in well over $50 billion of Bitcoin over the last five and a half years, and he's underwater.
And who knows what's going to happen with that?
But I think it would be good for the industry to at least be clean of people like CZ that really don't like any of their people, to be honest with you.
And I'll say this about Ethereum. If we actually do see a weekly close on ETH below $1,800,
we probably see a retest of like $1,300 or perhaps a deviation below that, right? Perhaps Ethereum bottoming at $1,300.
Last April was $17K on BTC in June of 2022, and we see a slight deviation,
and we see something like $1,100 or something like that.
But that would honestly be shocking to me
if the NASDAQ isn't 20% plus in decline from its all-time high, I think that's the only way I would be able to actually see ETH at those price levels. Markets when they go to the downside under a trump term at least from what we saw during his last term
They usually don't last for more
Than than a couple of weeks the downturn in 2018 happened within a couple of weeks the downturn last year
happened a couple of weeks and
We don't even need like QE and Zurb for that reversal to happen, but I do think some form of, there's a high probability of something insane happening
if the markets continue to decline, right as Powell moves out, and then Kevin Walsh or
Walsh, I don't know his last name, I forgot, I don't even know how to pronounce it,
which I don't know his last name.
I forgot.
I don't even know how to pronounce it.
Big Uncle Kevin comes in and just stimulates the market to an insane degree.
I think that would be pretty based, honestly.
And I know that fits into Evan's quick bear market timeline.
And it also fits in with just the way Trump likes to move in these markets.
With a single tweet, he can say, go out and buy.
And that's exactly what market participants are going to do.
But yeah, Sandisk continues to make an all-time high.
It's probably like, I think I've mentioned Sandisk more than like Pump and Hyperliquid.
and Hyperliquid, but I think people are honestly starting to become late on Sandisk, to be frank.
It's now about to approach close to the same valuation as Hood did back during Hood's top
in quarter four of last year, and I'm starting to see it more on the timeline and like that's usually indicative that
all right this is euphoria going on nobody cared about sandisk in november and december but they
sure do after earnings which is really which is really which is really strange um but either way
guys i got a couple of people up here on the panel it's going to be a great show i want to thank
everyone that's uh listening right now to the stream whether uh you're here live in the audience
or you're listening to the recording i want to thank you all so much uh for listening to the
show right as we get started hope you guys had a fantastic weekend um despite the market volatility
going on crappy market conditions unless you were positioned
short congratulations i i me personally i'm not a short trader i usually just like to go long only
i'm not the best trader to be honest i've never i've never understood why people would
take pride like oh i'm the best i'm the best i'm the best um when
usually you get some things wrong right you get some things wrong and i was definitely wrong on
the price action uh to go off in the year i was insanely enthusiastic when we hit 97k but
when we had a weekly close below the yearly open and a monthly close below the yearly open.
It is what it is, honestly.
It is what it is.
But we're going to go ahead and get started, guys.
We're going to go ahead and get started for today's show.
But before I do that, guys, I do have one favor to ask of all of you. If you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space so
show some love to the show best way to do that guys is by clicking the spaces tab once you guys
click the spaces tab you'll see uh right above all of our profile pictures you'll see a nice link
above that says x.com slash I slash spaces.
You guys can go ahead and hit the like button, hit the retweet button.
It does a number of things, guys.
Helps bring more people into the show.
It does help with the algorithm so more people can catch these shows.
So I'm going to first kick it on over.
I'm going to kind of do this in order.
I'm going to kick it off over to Evan and then of do this in order i'm gonna kick it off over uh to evan and then hanok and then david and then uh naka and small cap so if you guys have any
questions by the way there's a little chat box to the bottom right if you guys have any questions
or anything that you'd like to see us touch upon maybe something that uh we're not seeing in the
market there's a little chat box at the bottom right and uh yeah we'll uh we'll do
what we can with that so evan how are you man how was your weekend i'll get back to you by the way
i did uh i uh i did see your message um but uh man dude this price action it really does seem like um
i think the uh i know you're like the 2015- 2016 class, but I think it was a 2017 class like myself that were really adamant that like, yeah, this is just a four year cycle.
I don't care what anyone says.
Like, it's just going to be a bear market for 2026.
And man, like the tide really did, did, really did come back around, man.
BTC just looks horrendous and that higher time frame
chart on solana is disgusting like this thing has been in a downtrend officially for over a year um
yeah literally a year ago this thing was at 300 and we had the trump coin and all that stuff but
man i i think we can start off with
like what do you think is next now that we uh broke some key levels for the monthly and the weekly
yeah i mean so yeah let's start with we'll start with like the crypto stuff i think that's what
everybody wants to you know kind of hear about first um the first thing i'll say is like trend is your friend
everybody's probably heard that and let the winners ride generally with let the winners ride because
like a lot of the blood kind of generally happens at once the big moves kind of happen quickly human
emotion kind of happens quickly people kind of give up quickly that type of stuff um bitcoin you
know i think it's always been inevitable in these kind of bear markets.
You know, 200 weekly moving average.
If you're familiar with TA, you probably obviously know what that is.
That right now sits at around 60K, just under 60K, I believe.
And, you know, I think it's very likely that you would hit that.
Usually every single bear market, you actually have gone lower than it kind of previous times. You actually go a little bit lower, which kind of shows
diminished returns, I guess, and kind of as things get less volatility over time, you kind of go
lower to that. I may not be explaining it the best way, but essentially that's that big point.
And then the other point that I would argue is very powerful. We've never actually hit it on Bitcoin yet. We hit it on Ethereum back in April of 25. That's where we bottomed out.
Two week, 200 SMA. And now that currently sits, don't get too afraid. I don't think we're going
to go this low. That currently sits at about 39K. If you were to hit that, you probably wouldn't
hit that until at least like 48K, 50K. So there's not really a strong argument to lose 50k by a lot i would say
you you would have to have major structural changes probably major fundamental changes too
and when i say fundamental changes i mean something like sailor going liquidated or
what i don't know what the i don't follow sailor closely enough to know what the biggest risk
there but i would assume liquidation things of that nature i don't think Saylor closely enough to know what the biggest risk there, but I would assume liquidation, things of that nature.
I don't think that's really going to happen.
I think that Saylor...
Saylor can't be liquidated.
Saylor doesn't have a liquidation level, just to be clear.
Thanks, okay, appreciate that.
I appreciate you saying that.
So, I mean, yeah, I agree.
Yeah, 100%, man.
I don't think, I think, if I had to guess,
I think MicroStrategy will bottom somewhere between 80 to 100.
You know, I think it'll be fine.
I don't think anything too, too crazy will happen.
I guess Tom Lee, the thing I would say about that is
the sequel's always been worse than the original.
If you just want to mess with ETH,
I would recommend just buying ETH on leverage, you know,
to try to recreate that. You know, I kind of like Sail just buying ETH on leverage, you know, to try to recreate that.
You know, I kind of like Saylor's view of like, you know, he's optimistic, all that. Tom Lee's
view is always like everything's going to go 10x within the next two weeks. I mean,
Saylor's never said crap like that. I kind of like Saylor's sales pitch a little bit better.
But moving on to kind of Bitcoin on the on the on the charts i think february is generally probably going to stay a bearish month like sure in the short term like
if you're a really good scalp trader really good day trader which i mean i i have been in the past
i still am sometimes i'm a little bit lazy in my old age to uh try to even do these trades i i'm
looking to add to my shorts you know they, they're pretty obvious high, low risk, high reward shorts, the swing shorts that I've been in.
I'm looking to add to them like when the two hour trigger waves form, things of that nature kind of form.
90 minute looks a bit more bearish.
Add to those kind of risk free.
Try to get us down to the next big point, which is going to be at right around 72K.
And then from there, you know, I could see potentially 60K in February.
I mean, it could get boring. I don't know. You know know you know he could jump up sure he could jump up to 82k it's but the hilarious
thing about jim kramer is he was pretty bearish on crypto i believe the last month and as soon
as crypto has come down he's like oh wait i was right i need to be wrong let's get bullish let's
get i just i just find that just hilarious and he was saying 82K. It's just like he can't be right.
He's just uncomfortable being right.
He just has to switch his opinion.
Like, dude, you're right.
Just let the winner ride.
You know what I mean?
No one could let the winner ride.
So that's what I'll say about Bitcoin.
I still think you're in generally a pretty bearish situation.
I would say you've got to wait two more months.
Like if you can just hold for two more months, you know, just have discipline for two more months.
I think as we get into April, May, there'll be a lot better buying opportunities.
Bitcoin's always, you know, we've always bottomed quicker. And I would argue that,
you know, I think that you probably would have had your bottom in June of 22, aside from the
FTX type thing. So if it's a month earlier, May could be a bottom, even April could be a bottom.
I mean, it's quicker every time. So that could be the big buying april could be a bottom i mean it's quicker every time so that
could be the big buying opportunity now moving on to ethereum i would say you know
a little bit it's it's bleeding against bitcoin right now it doesn't that chart doesn't look the
best at the moment i would argue um i think that if ethereum can hold like your two week 200 SMA, that's where it bottomed back in actually April of 2025 or the end of March of
forget exactly,
but you know,
1800 holding those areas would be really powerful.
I would get more concerned if you lose kind of that 1800 area,
that's where I would kind of get concerned about.
But,
you know,
I think there's big opportunity if you come down that far now,
Solana has been mentioned. I mean, I think Solana has got a good shot of potentially still being, you know i think there's big opportunity if you come down that far now um solana has been mentioned
i mean i think solana's got a good shot of potentially still being you know having a future
obviously i think that you really want to hold 80 i think 80 is a good you know potential
buy-in area for solana assuming you hold that um i want to move on a little bit to trad fi or a
little bit let's just talk about gold and silver that's the elephant in the room so my charts are weird as hell oh man there's some weird glitch on
trading view it's funny because spy versus gold like looks like it fell off 99 so funny how it is
but anyway spy versus gold has had a nice jump and you're now back over like the major level you're
back above the COVID low for
SPI versus gold.
So if you could hold that, I would assume that especially with Trump in office and especially
if we don't go into recession and, you know, American economy stays strong for the next
few years, SPI looks more attractive than gold and obviously silver probably for the
next few years.
The same could be said, I think, in the next six months.
The most attractive thing, you know, in the next six months. The most attractive
thing, what even looks more attractive than SPY right now are TradFi, NASDAQ, Dow Jones,
would be XLE, energy sector. That would be the safest bet there. That's making a higher low
from 2020, which is huge. I think you can ride that for a few months here. I think that probably
will outperform the S&P 500 NASDAQ, as I would
presume those would correct, you know, at least 5%, 10% over the next few months, you know, with
Bitcoin. I think everything is generally going to come down except potentially energy. That's the
big thing that I think could hold on. What's interesting too, I mean, Berkshire Hathaway's
half bonds, that had a big jump, a huge jump against gold very recently. So if you can hold those kind of lows that you, those pandemic lows that you had on
that particular stock. And the reason I mentioned Berkshire Hathaway is because
it tends to outperform S&P 500 NASDAQ in these more bearish times. And like, even if the market,
let's say the market does keep ripping upward, like that still will go upward with the market.
So it's kind of like an insurance type policy policy if you're just trying to preserve wealth and wait and get it wait to
convert and get into more attractive areas on bitcoin or and ethereum so the last thing i'll
say on ethereum like we're we're bouncing off of you know 2100 which is a big point but i've seen
this happen so many times you definitely got to be careful in the markets like this. Like it's just like let the winners ride because you can kind of
keep going down and we could just stay bearish, you know, February being a bearish month. Maybe
you'll get some relief in March and in April and May or kind of that bearish month before your
bottom. So that's kind of the way I would, you know, presume it right now. Long story short,
I think energy looks attractive. I think more conservative things look attractive.
But everything else looks very unattractive.
So, yeah.
Evan, I guess, like, bro, in your view, if you look at that monthly on Seoul,
there's nothing but air there until, like 33 bucks 30 dollars 80 bucks 80 bucks a little bit
80. so you so you you would bid at least for a bounce at 80 you would say i bro i think if you
lose 80 you're kind of dead in the water to a certain extent i think you know you'd have to
get major good fundamental news if you lose 80 to for this thing to have really a
chance of recovering and i mean a lot that probably could be said for most all coins i would say um
you know if they really keep going keep continuing to go down after like april may you know that's
where it gets that's where it gets a lot scarier yeah i i i get you man and man if we see the s&p at 7100 and the queues and price discovery and we
still don't see anything man um that i'd honestly be speechless and what's going on bro welcome
it's a great day to have a great day a couple things one appreciate you guys uh doing this
like i come here just as someone ready to receive.
I don't pretend to be some TA, GigaBrain, algorithmic quant guy.
I'm going to leave that to y'all.
Y'all are the goats.
So I really appreciate you guys and your work, number one.
Number two, bro, as I think about meme coiners,
as I think about the average person in this space,
dude, what happened?
That's the question on the floor.
Like, all GigaBrain stuff aside,
like, what happened last week?
What is going on in the cycle?
And where do we go from here?
And I think just covering some of that at a baseline
would be super helpful.
That's all.
I think CZ is what happened, man.
I think CZ is what happened, man.
CZ happened.
CZ happened.
I was optimistic about Pepe at the start of the year.
I know you've been covering Pepe since, like, I think I saw you talk about it, like, within, like, a few days after it launched, right?
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
And I think Pepe has been signal for super, super easy mode. Anytime you see Pepe outperformance, it's like, all right, the market is in easy mode for the next few weeks.
It was kind of like how Chainlink was last cycle, where anytime you'd see Chainlink or Ada outperformance, it's like, all right, it's easy mode, right?
At least for the next few weeks, you'd see them top locally.
And then you'd have the betas doing okay.
And as far as what to do from here, I would say fiat mining, man.
This market is ruthless, man.
And if you're not in front of the screens, you're really not going to catch these moves
because the downside usually happens extremely quick.
The bounces happen extremely quick.
Anything that's outperforming, right, like memes and stuff, and I look at everything
on chain, right, their trends only last for a few days.
Like on Penguin, for example, that thing had no pullbacks.
It had zero pullbacks, and it had one bounce, dude.
It had one bounce from 80 back to 110, and that's it.
It was hailed as the next billion-dollar runner and all that stuff because the White House tweeted about it.
Not directly, but like they tweeted the penguin walking with Trump and all that stuff.
But I would at least wait until Bitcoin has like a monthly close above the yearly open.
If you like really, really, really, really want to be safe and ride momentum.
like really really really really want to be safe and ride momentum but i think just from like
a long-term perspective if you're buying btc near the 2021 all-time high i consider it
almost the same as buying btc at 20k um uh during the summer of 2022 a lot of people were called idiots for buying at those price levels um but i think
just simply buying btc uh or even eth at like previous cycle all-time highs is is great um
so that's that that's that's what i would say man have you been active on chain or
or not really no not me man this is this is too so a
couple things like for me i like to operate with like some knowledge because i'm not the greatest
trader i'm not actually i'm not even a good trader so like i like to know who's behind this shit and
like the only people that i see that are like operating in these back channels launching are
just a bunch of worthless like the ruggiest, scammiest devs. Like why would you launch in this climate?
Like if you're a serious person or you're a serious team
and there are a few in meme coins
and none of those guys have talked to me in like a year,
why would you operate in this climate?
There's only one reason.
You need the bag, you need that money,
you need to run some people's pockets.
And so, you know, for me personally,
like I'm crazy sidelined.
Even if we saw Penguin,
like I put a few shekels into that. Like you'll have a couple of runners here saw Penguin. I'll put a few shekels into that.
You'll have a couple of runners here and there.
You'll throw a few shekels at that.
But I'm not participating in any serious or meaningful way
until I see the market transition.
Yeah, I feel you on that.
Myself and a few of our other guys,
we kind of had this inside, this inside joke where it's
like the market is completely screwed. Um, after Monad launches and that airdrop launches. And
I think the market topped to the day when you were able to check your Monad um aloe which is like an early early october excuse me
um like if you qualified right and then um i think when you were able to check your boxes
and stuff like oh you got like 10 000 mon and stuff like that uh that's when btc was like at
116 and then the actual airdrop happened like right as we hit 80k and then after that like
on-chain was just it was just it was just wonky like you had to be extremely extremely attentive
to your bag and have lower ceiling expectations um and it's odd cause like Solana has been in this huge downtrend, but there still has
been, there, there, there've been 200 mil plus runners on chain.
It's just, if you miss the initial move, you're kind of screwed.
Right.
Um, I mean, even on base, right?
Like we take a look at molt, that thing skyrocketed in like 24 hours after Coinbase.
Some people from Coinbase shouted it out and it hit like 120.
Basically within like a day.
It was insane.
It had an initial pump to like 10 mil and then a lot of Coinbase people interacted with it, hit 120 and it just got destroyed.
And then it got vamped by a bunch of these betas, like names, derivative names and all that stuff, trying to steal liquidity and all that stuff.
So it's like, all right, let's make base like Solana now, which I hope it's not the case.
All right, so now we're going to go over to Naka and then David and then small caps knock what's going on man how are you great to have you uh back on
yeah good evening my little d gens how's the bull market going little d gens man little d gens
how's how's the bull market is it treating you well i i i would assume the bull market is energy
bro it's that's doing well my xle's not doing too bad yeah i mean i mean what about what about
that what about that bitcoin and eth that mike alfred was telling us about last time i was on
where it was like you just gotta like you know take a few of these little like uh bits of
volatility and it's gonna to go to the moon.
How's that going? Well, I say we give him
some time. I mean, most
trading or
If you hold long enough, you're never wrong.
Yeah.
I think giving it more than a few days might be
apropos in a market this size, but
that's just me.
How much is he
down from last space? 33 know 33 or something you know i
prefer to talk about people when they're here yeah get it get my thing i think it's offset to an
extent with the silver short i mean the guy was 20 million short on silver and i mean i'm not going
to say he called like he timed it and called it it because he was scaling in at around 89, 90K,
but it was just pretty insane.
I hosted a space.
It's my pinned tweet, and he came in the night before, what was it, Friday morning, was it, with Silver?
Talking about how he took another $6 million worth or whatever.
So it would be cool for him to talk about that.
But, yeah, I'm just coming in for the defense of my guy.
What's the phrase that we use for this?
It's not like a crash.
It's just a little gully.
The market's just in a gully right now.
Isn't that the phrase they use?
I'm not sure about they, but what about you?
What's your position?
Where are you at?
What's your timeline? What's i'm basically i'm basically all cash
i think we are going to about 40k on bitcoin by what time um probably about november maybe maybe
um, I think bitcoin goes to 40k
Maybe maybe 35
35 to 40k for bitcoin
ETH is much harder to read because it doesn't have a proper cycle anymore
Um, so i'm very hesitant to make any predictions for that
But I mean, you know, it kind of depends like what tradfi does and what does ai do and stuff like that
Uh, but you know i mean eath
eath eath has technically double topped it's put in a macro double top now and that's not good
so can i ask why so why 35 40 by november what's your eye behind that
i think if you just look at things like the mvrv ratio uh and look at where that went
what does that mean what's the mvrv what's that basically when you when you have bitcoin you know
you have the realized price which is you look at every satoshi on chain you look at what was the
price that that satoshi last actually changed hands at and then you average that overall
satoshis and that gives you the realized price so the market price might be like 125k but the
realized price could be like 50k right i think the realized price hang around about 56k at the moment
um and basically every bear market um two things happen the realized price starts falling how
happens in a bit i have a question how the hell is the ism making new highs we hit 52
and we have this kind of crappy price action man that's that's the bitcoin doesn't give a fuck
about exactly bro i'm tired of it's all right dude i think dude i'm so tired of saying like the btc
gold ratio my gosh bro that thing topped that over dude look how about this btc gold does not
bottom out until soul bottoms out that's what i'll say man um yeah wait wabi i got a question for you like what's your i i haven't spoke good to hear from
you good to see you on the space i haven't seen you in a couple weeks even though i think we've
only spoke like one or once or twice on here but i'm wondering are you like what's your long-term
case not not in crypto but and not even really ethereum but just bitcoin what do you what do
you see bitcoin as um just overall and then
if we're guiding out years from now five ten years even further we're like what do you well i mean i
mean like the optimistic yeah the optimistic case for bitcoin i think from here if everything goes
well is basically that bitcoin keeps creeping up like you know the average price of bitcoin or the realized price of bitcoin
basically goes up at about 10 to 20 percent annualized forever right um maybe approaching
10 annualized so you can put your money in bitcoin and you know you'll make 10 annualized
in the long term and the volatility goes down.
So that's, that's the bull case for Bitcoin.
The bear case is that it basically dies and there are various things that could kill it off. One of them is the quantum threat, but I think Coinbase kind of has
that handled now. So that's a bit less for risk.
The other one is just all the centralization where too many of the
Bitcoins end up in trad fi nobody holds
their own coins anymore governments can then easily expropriate bitcoin or they can print
fake bitcoin like in print paper bitcoin that doesn't exist physically uh and suppress the
price and just all sorts of bad stuff can happen so yeah i mean like i think there is an optimistic
case for bitcoin that you can basically just treat it as a store of value like gold.
I don't think Bitcoin will ever actually achieve the gold market cap,
at least not in the, not in the next couple of decades, because it just carries a
risk like there are just risks around Bitcoin that gold doesn't have.
Right.
One of the, another one of the flaws of bitcoin is um satoshi kind of
messed up with the halvings they shouldn't reduce the supply issuance by half they should reduce it
by about 15 if you've done that there'd still be plenty of supply to mine and you wouldn't have the
uh you know mining uh going down to zero so quickly but that doesn't bite us for another
couple of cycles so basically i think bitcoin can continue to be a store of value. Um, and I think that's probably, probably, yeah, that's
probably the, the, um, uh, the, the most likely case, right? You'll buy Bitcoin. If you're smart,
you'll buy it in a bear market. It'll go up. There'll be a bull market. If you're smart,
you'll sell some and rebuy and it'll keep going up every four years
you'll get 40 50 and that'll be good when does that start to bite us naka like when's the the uh
the cycle that you said would start to buy this based on the mining what do you know which one
it is what year the mining the mining emissions starts to become a problem in the 2040s uh okay
right because at that point yeah at that point, yeah, at that point, you know, mining emissions, um,
money emissions become very small compared to the market cap and it becomes more and
more feasible to attack it.
But I don't think you have to worry about that.
I think basically Bitcoin, if this is a normal cycle, which is not completely determined yet, but it kind of looks like maybe,
maybe this is a bear market, right? Um, they would send us down to about 3540 K. And then
in the next bull market, maybe we got 200, right? Maybe we got 150, you know,
i feel i feel you on that naka i feel you i mean that would be good right that would be good like
if it goes to 35k and you you ride it back up to like 150 that would be good right i would say man
we first got to see how like um 48k reacts which is the august 2024 low i think that's going to be like some strong support 45 to
48. um and i think by that time some alts are probably bottomed i would say like maybe hyper
liquid definitely not pump definitely not pump like i think pump is going to be one of the biggest
gainers um after everything resumes a higher time frame uptrend.
Without Pump Fun, on-chain is just not real.
And I think there's a reason why they haven't done their airdrop.
Wouldn't it be ironic if their airdrop happens at the bottom of the market?
But either way, so I got small caps and Prometheus up here,
but I'm going to pass it on over to David now. david how are you man i'm doing uh it was terrific it was freezing the dog wasn't
happy went on a 24-hour uh hunger strike and this morning she ate a little but now it's like almost
above zero celsius so we're getting a little melting of the ice.
Thank God.
David, I find it kind of funny how like you started coming on these spaces when BTC was shortly above 90K.
I think it was 93 or something.
And then two weeks ago you were screaming.
I'm pretty sure it was like above 90k you were screaming and you were saying that micro strategy is going to be underwater from
their from their uh from their average price and you're like save yourselves well my friend can i
just say can i just it's funny man can i just say ditto to what you said?
Because it didn't start.
The whole thing didn't start.
Yeah.
And you were saying, pay attention to Wavi.
Look at Sandisk.
That's right.
And what did you say today?
Sandisk melted up, man.
No, no, no.
But what did you say today?
How did you help people today?
You said you were supposed to listen to me and stop listening as much because SanDisk is exhausted.
Okay?
You're helping people in.
You're helping people out.
You're not saying get in full, get out full.
You're saying accumulate scale, but now you're saying it's ridiculous.
It's insane.
Look at Microsofty.
It needs ED medication.
It's done straight from its gap down this is not a
going to be a um an uh an exhaustion gap it's a breakaway gap lower look at Softy look at NVIDIA
which is their you know Softy and Meta are down today those are the biggest customers of nvidia it's a tractor beam mstr is down set it's down
bitcoin's up and it's down today right it's a tractor beam down 75 dragging down the crypto
space which is down 1.55 trillion since 10 9 it's down's down by 36%. It's up in the nest. The calculation,
we're down to 2.63 trillion, and we're at 4.28. Look at the big dogs. Look at mama not go up mama is microsoft and apple meta and amazon not is is um nvidia and oracle and go is
google um oil uh and up is um unity software and ps palantir these things are melting down under low
volatility it's not like someone blew up and they got sold
out look at this big you know do you know what's happening in trad fi like i don't track trad fi
like what's happening what's going on what's going on is is you have one guy say oh maybe i'm not
going to have a weak dollar and the whole house of cards fails remember when you buy tech you're
shorting the dollar because you make more money. That's
just the natural pair trade. Well, it's unwinding. We went up 1% in the dollar and you can't even
survive. Microsoft, the software index, the IGV, it's an ETF, divided by SMH, it's the lowest price
to nominate an SMH of all time. It's in price discovery. They got
the earnings revisions down because AI means you don't need software. How about Adobe? You really
want to spend that money at Adobe when you just talk to Claude or one of these guys and say,
do this? No, these guys have real, real problems because software was supposed to fill in the gaps. Well, AI does that for free or for a low cost.
Co-pilot's got no uptake.
So you got Microsoft on the verge of $399.
You've got it getting ready to get all of these guys.
Remember, May 11th is the drop-dead date for tech.
That's when the Liberation Day spiked down on April 2 that reached down until 28 when we did our podcast, Max Long.
You know, they're going to crush fall and drive everything up.
Well, you take that April 2 down to May 11th, you're going to have 50.
What were you looking at IGV against?
SNH.
Software against hardware.
Who's the biggest customer of hardware software right
oh my god that chart looks absolutely disgusting but you know what holy shit so insane it can't go
any lower so what does that mean it's a tractor beam i don't know about that no no no my point is
the chart won't go lower they both will go go lower. In other words, SMH will start getting dragged on by Softee.
I mean, look at today.
Meta Microsoft, that's $6 trillion.
NVIDIA, that's $4 trillion.
That's $10 trillion.
Plus you have this weekend selling in crypto.
That's $2.6 trillion.
You've got selling pressure, and we're losing leverage everywhere.
Just understand, and if you could hear this accepted, it'll fundamentally help everyone.
70% of silver comes from copper mines.
So when you have elevated rates, whether on purpose, by policy, or speculators, and you slow down mortgage activity, you're going to lower the demand for copper
because that's 30% of global copper demand housing. And China's half of that. So if you
don't have copper demand, 70% of silver comes out of copper mines. Very little comes out of
silver or gold mines. It comes out of copper mines as little comes out of silver or gold mines it comes
out of copper mines as byproduct now no one's going to mine for copper just to get silver
because it's too scarce but when you had high rates keeping silver look at silver divided by
by copper it's insane it's 10 times as you know it's 10 times as fast it dragged up the volatility
when you had copper jump because trump says i'm going to get low mortgage rates and you're going to need that copper.
You blew apart the silver trade because you were going to flood the market with silver as a byproduct of copper.
So you had a shortage going into its peak because you didn't have enough copper producing enough byproducts.
So you have to look at one thing in respect to another. You have to look at software as the main customer, particularly Mama,
Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. That's $12 trillion right there. And if those things are going down,
if Mama's going down, I mean, look at Oracle. They said they want to borrow a Pishikaka 4050,
but they can't even get a bounce. No one's going to lend these guys money. Not for this data stuff. So we're seeing real
liquidation, real equity loss. That's not going to accommodate any rallies in Bitcoin. And you
can look at Bitcoin and you can see the volatility of Bitcoin I put up in the nest. One of the things
I do in my space is when I train
people to understand the framework of high leverage, high volatility, institutional positioning
is you denominate anything in its own volatility. And then you watch it. And then you can watch the
volatility of that trend. You look at Bitcoin, it's down 35% or 40% on yesterday versus Microsoft.
or 40 on uh yesterday versus microsoft during the nasdaq's down four this is down 40 uh uh
microstrategy is down almost 80. it's organized but it's accelerating it's not decelerating up in
the nest you see my bitcoin cover at 4 29 a.m on april 7th of last year and 75 091 95 why because bitcoin which started melting down during liberation day
stopped going down faster than the nasdaq so why am i going to stand there people were shorting puts
they were holding it up and it wasn't i don't need to be in garbage super volatility if i'm
not getting my money during the trade when it slows down down, I'm slowing down. I'm out.
Well, we don't have it slowing down yet.
I need it to slow down.
We're down 10 times as much.
Remember, everyone used to watch triple Q, TQQQ, three times QQQ, overlay Bitcoin in the 21 to 22 and a half range.
Those things were an overlay, like a stencil.
Okay?
We don't have that now.
We ran out of gas
on the way up.
And then it stopped outperforming
three times.
It stopped outperforming, period.
And then it started underperforming.
That's your eigenbasis.
That's your rollover.
It's like the rollercoaster ride
where you go over the top hill.
So there is no support
and volatility in Bitcoin is just a dog.
I mean, who's going to want to trade something
that moves 2.5% a day
when you can go to gold and silver?
Silver's moving 10% a day.
You had a 35%, 40% day.
It was down 35% and up 5%.
Or it's actually down 35%, up 10%, down 5%.
So you ended up having a 50% trading day.
Bitcoin really can't catch a break.
People were criticizing it for being too volatile.
Now you're criticizing it for being not volatile enough.
Exactly, and that's my point.
We're losing volatility because all this paper paper bitcoin the ibit bitcoin ibt they're selling the calls futures they're selling the calls the lady who runs the cme was out there
saying we will take bitcoin as custody and you can trade against your bitcoin you can't trade against
bonds but you can trade against bitcoin if you
send it in so you have so many more opportunities to short volatility and the swing traders i mean
they got a lot of paper remember we had the bearish engulfing candle for the second for the third
quarter only 800 basis points what did you have in 209 80 000 basis. That's why traders were there. They're not there to trade paint.
And when you get Bitcoin below 74, 434, which is the low, and we're within $230 of it,
then you have the risk. If you don't clean that up by March 31, you have a bearish engulfing
candle. Annual, that's a year's worth of selling pressure. And for the gentleman who said,
I can't remember who, that sailor doesn't have a liquidation point. I'm sorry, but that's a year's worth of selling pressure. And for the gentleman who said, I can't remember who, that sailor doesn't have a liquidation point.
I'm sorry, but that's not an accurate.
He doesn't have a mechanical one.
He has a practical one.
What happens is you got Bitcoin trading at 46.
He has an effective liquidation price, not an actual liquidation.
In other words, he's not going to run out
of money to pay the dividends okay there's plenty of money for that that's not the problem the
problem is you have a one plus trillion dollar bitcoin you have a 46 billion dollar micro
strategy and guys and gals can gang up on that thing, and they could drive it down 50%.
David, you know what I really found out that MSTR was screwed?
It was when I was on YouTube earlier today,
and I saw that they were putting advertisements out for STRC.
That's when you know they're down bad.
They can't raise any money, and this is the problem.
Do you know why Bitcoin was up and MicroStrategy was down?
Or I should say, do you know why microstrategy was down when bitcoin was up partly is because it's a catch-up for saturday but also whenever someone buys strc who's an institutional person
they immediately go short the uh the mstr they buy their preferreds and they short the stock as a hedge
just like what they did to oracle you know they buy the debt their preferreds and they short the stock as a hedge, just like what they did to Oracle. You know, they buy the debt, the 18 billion, and they short the common. Unfortunately
for Oracle, they don't have a bid for the common. And they say they're going to borrow another 50.
They'll go to 99 bucks. So when you see software melting down, come on, how far behind is the
hardware? And if you start seeing real equity losses in some Palantirs and Roblox and Applovin,
how is that not the same holders of levered crypto?
So you get me a spike in Bitcoin vol, devol to 100, I'm a buyer.
I'm a buyer of Bitcoin on a trade.
You keep it contained 46 you know we took out the
the 10 9 low at um 37 uh 67 we got to 37 22 you you know you you watch this bitcoin vol go lower
it's the next big leg lower and what do you got you got the sailor 76 you got the year 74 for the
bearish engulfing candle remember we're on a countdown till march 31 that bitcoin must be
above 74 434 or it's going right to 50 fast because it's what do you what do you mean by say by sailor having a uh practical liquidation
okay so the market value of of strategy is what about 46 trillion 46 billion
if you get a group together and they short strategy they just buy these preferreds
and they use it to hedge off a shorting of the common, not the preferred,
you move that down to $25 billion from $46 billion,
or that's $21 billion lower,
if the company does not start selling coin to close that difference,
activists will come in, they'll buy the whole company and then they'll
right so basically you think sailor's actual liquidation is that somebody will do a activist
attack on him they'll like buy the board they'll you know they start by shorting the hell out of it to drive it to a deep discount.
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, right.
So basically, if the market can knock down
the market cap of MicroStrategy
or any other DAC like the BitMine...
No, no, it's Sailor.
Sailor's got the size.
No one's coming for the other ones.
They're coming for him.
Because he's big enough.
Why not?
Why not do the same thing?
No, no, that's going to happen.
But the big money is the attack on strategy.
Yeah, but...
No, they're all going to go.
No, no, they're all going to go.
Including IBIT.
That's gone.
You think everyone down on IBIT,
you're not going to start...
Well, IBIT is just an ETF, right? You can't... No, no, no, no. that's gone you think everyone down on ibid you're not going to start no well either i i bet it's
just an etf right you can't no no no no i'm saying the people that own it are going to dump it because
they didn't realize how volatile yeah yeah yeah yeah but like but like you know these these etfs
can just dump they like the difference between a dac like microstrategy or their name is the dac's
are trying to be clever right they're trying to say
we're going to buy all of this all of this crypto right under our corporate umbrella and then we're
going to hold it until the crypto is very valuable and that's not going to make money what's actually
happening is they bought this crypto when it's expensive and the crypto is going to lose value
then the market then the market's going to come and short their stock down by buying the
preferred and shorting the common and then you're saying there's going to be an activist
check on takeover fire the board you know and then just basically liquidate the crypto
i couldn't have said it better and your accent is much better than mine so you get two gold stars
but didn't circle make a new load today all time who's more powerful circle who's
more powerful circle because they're they're hustling up some money into the pockets of uh
of um uh trump jr or is it jp morgan right well the other thing with the Ethereum one is apparently this activist shareholder takeover can only happen once per year.
And the next opportunity for it is around September of this year.
No, but that's not the problem.
You get rid of Sailor, no one's going to be able to withstand.
And then you have to take a look at the other factor, the ETFs.
Someone says, sell my ETF.
It goes to a discount to the coin.
It goes to a discount to the coin
by more than 1%.
You're going to have people just, you know,
sending in coin and, you know,
buying the ETF at a discount.
You're basically getting paid 1% more for your coin.
When you have Ibit trading at 1% or 2% discount to
coin, people just
you know,
they'll short the coin, take the money,
buy the ETF.
It's an ETF.
If Bitcoin loses value,
the ETFs will empty out.
If individuals dump
the ETF too aggressively
and then it goes to too much of a discount,
then someone's going to say, short me some Bitcoin and buy me some ETF.
And they're going to arbitrage it that way, but it's going to be led lower by the exit from IBIT.
And then the other
problem is a lot of, can you guys, can we exit please? Thank you very much, young people. Thank
you. Um, so you, you, you, um, Oh, I'm sorry. Well, just hold on one second. I don't want to fall and break something. Sorry.
So you have the discount they push.
It comes out.
And then what about all the people that say, oh, I don't want to sell.
Let me just short the calls.
Let me get a covered call going.
That's going to smother the volatility.
So you can get episodes where people are so desperate to exit,
they buy puts, and that causes vol to spike maybe through the 50 of yesterday,
maybe to 80, 90, 100.
And then I would buy any dip as a scalp on a spike in the volatility,
but get out right away. You know, like real quick trade.
But because you have a good stuff at 50, if you look at the chart, the charts on devolve,
you get a pop on that from the, you know, what happened in silver? Silver vol exploded.
Dealers had a cover. They had a Delta hedge. They drove silver up crazy. But silver did not go up as fast as silver volatility. As example number two, Bitcoin. Bitcoin had a 31-41 vol on August 2nd of 23. Powell goes for a pivot. Bitcoin's only 25k. Bitcoin vol jumps 200% to 92. Bitcoin itself doesn't even go up as fast
but then
after a year Bitcoin vol crests
Bitcoin goes up for another year
while they're busy driving the volatility
down. I think the same thing is with silver
I think silver can go up
while the volatility goes down
until the volatility goes down enough
that silver is a
short because it's just the price the gamma versus the vega you look at some of these charts they're
death you look at ethereum you look at bitcoin you look at solana xrp there doesn't seem to be
any hope for any of these guys so that's i mean i don't see any hope and when you get mama you know and then nvidia going down
when you get the igv dragging the saw the hardware down that money's going into treasuries and then
mortgage rates go down the whole thing gets a freak show because then long-term rates start
to come down and then you get double-digit returns in bonds i went i started accumulating
bonds out of my mortgage money um i was uh a week ago sunday i said i'm open to getting long on
monday some i want to be gradual but you know treasury vol is coming down and when that comes
down enough i think bonds go to infinity i think st Druckenmiller and Fink and Rubini, all these people
are trading their book. You get
a flatter curve, you get a stronger dollar.
Goodbye for this whole anti-dollar
story, and it's going to be
look at McDonald's, look at Coke,
look at Walmart. It's a
freak show. Everybody is short these things
for a generation,
and they're going to destroy the shorts.
What do you what do you
think what do you think about the uh u.s uh long-term bond etf as as a sort of position here
so the way i look at it is when someone's giving me two percent for free i take it so when mortgages
are two percent off with a government guarantee and there's no tail risk of higher rates, you know, assets are too stretched.
We can't get higher rates, in my opinion.
So I'm hanging out in mortgages.
MBB, JMPS, MTBA, Harley, my buddy.
Not advice, not chilling for him.
But once he's...
No, I mean, I mean, like, I mean, like... No, no no no i know but this is my point i'm hanging out
there i'm making those are three-year highs right now what do you what do you what do you think
about the tlt calls like no no you can't buy the calls yet the volatility has a lot lower to go
it's attention you really think so yes you really think so no Oh, yes. You really think so? No, no.
TLT volatility is down quite a lot, I think.
Is it at its trough?
No way.
I have this discussion with Harley Bassman.
He created the move index.
Below 40, I am getting the restaurant of my choice.
Above 100, he gets.
Okay, and I pay.
So I think the move index is going to below 40, could go to 28, 29.
I have a proprietary, I could put it up in the nest. It's called the RDAP, the Relative Duration Annihilation Potential,
annihilation potential, which in other words means you got to buy duration. And we are three times
which in other words means you've got to buy duration.
what we were after the GFC, which caused a decade of disinflation where rates just melted.
So all I want to do is be patient. Okay. I don't want to be aggressive. So I opened a small position. I prefer TLT and ZROZ as a team. ZROZ is the PIMCO 27-year average
life. Not at Vikes, folks. TLT is like an 18-year. And so they are less than 10%
from a nine-month high, which means we high excuse me which means we clean up may 11 you know the
whole uh trump era thing um well i'm i'm just i'm just looking at the implied volatility on tlt calls
for 2028 and they have an 11 i'll sell them to you i'll sell them to you because i think you
actually you want to you don't want to buy no way I wouldn't do it with your enemy's money.
That's wasted. We have more to go.
We have more to go, in my opinion.
Listen, I come from a long time doing this stuff.
To me, that looks like dead money. It just looks cheap.
What kind of implied volatility would you be looking for?
I might start at 7, probably at six.
You'd be,
you'd be looking for a six to 7% IV on.
that's not the low.
that's not the low.
That's where I would start because you can make enough.
What do you think?
What do you think?
What do you think the low is on that IV?
Four.
Wow.
And I think it's going to,
and no,
but it's not just the vol.
It's the vol of all.
I think it's going to go there and stay there for five years.
I think the curve is going to...
Wait, you think TLT is going to be dead for five years?
No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
The volatility of TLT is going to be dead for five years.
Well, I mean, if TLT has like a real runoff,
the volatility will go off as well.
Not really. Not really.
Not initially.
No, no, no.
Because right now we have mortgages that are very wide.
And as the mortgages are wide, that's going to cushion the rally.
Because we have to get mortgage OAS tighter.
We get that tighter.
You'll get mortgage.
Then you get treasury volatility tighter.
And then once we get seven or six you'll see uh tlt at a 52
week high you'll see zero z at a 52 week high and more and more people are going to be shorting the
puts to make the extra juice and the people that have been listening to powell and shorting the
calls because of hire for longer are going to get the bitcoin treatment they're going to get the silver november 21 treatment they're going to get run over and destroyed and drunken miller's reputation will
be shattered again because he doesn't know anything about the bond market he knows nothing
about mortgages so i'm telling you don't listen to me watch what you're seeing watch vx tlt put it right under tlt watch bitcoin and put d vol underneath
watch this pad they do watch this entanglement watch the relationship that you can't seem to
get bitcoin up without devol going down and that's unhealthy because if you if you conjugate them or
if you add them and they're both going down,
that signals we're going to turn Bitcoin into a cicada hibernation of a decade.
Just like silver takes 10, 12 years to come out of hibernation
because of all that paper silver that's coming out of the banks.
And then all of a sudden you get a crew together and you run those MFers over like it was just done.
And I don't think it's over but
the volatility is over you can't make that vol go any higher because the physical limitations
of the demand for silver at these prices you get substitution into aluminum and uh and other
another metals but please do not not watch. Stop just watching these squiggly lines because you blow up.
Volatility is at the edge of your lines.
And I look at the world, not in space time, but in price time.
And when you see those lines, I'm looking for density, expansion, and violence for the people who are holding those lines.
They think they're fast enough to get out.
So we'll just...
I think he just cut out...
Can you hear me now?
I think...
You're back, yeah.
Okay, no, no, some friend of mine called.
He knows not to talk.
Oh, okay.
So I hung up on him.
He knows what's up.
Anyways, he was trying to sell volatility.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
So, I mean, that's another problem with MicroStrategy.
What's their business?
They sell Bitcoin volatility.
Well, everybody else is selling it now also.
There's no demand for Bitcoin volatility.
So when Bitcoin vol takes out 40, takes out 30, 37.22, the recent low,
then it takes out 35.89, which is the low monthly close ever.
Ever!
And people are buying something that's at its lowest ever since its excitation into existence.
And they're telling you, buy vol, buy more vol.
It's all whale exit.
They're trying to get out themselves.
So you've got to watch this stuff.
And when it goes down, when the volatility goes down,
who the hell wants to play?
My people started migrating from Bitcoin over to silver
because we paired off the two,
like any good institutional block volatility trader.
We saw Bitcoin vol going down, silver vol going up.
What train do you want to be on?
The down train or the up train?
We want volatility up.
The problem is gold and silver don't have long to keep this going.
What do we want?
What's going to happen?
What do I think is going to happen?
What do I think you're going to see?
You're going to see mama.
Mama's bad.
Mama's in trouble.
Mama needs to go on a diet what's a diet a diet is
down in every time frame so first you'll see it down oh it's only a dog it's only a daily time
frame oh it's death crosses it's only a weekly wait so so so your your thesis for this diet uh for tech basically
is that the dollar is going to get stronger you know the dollar short trade is just going to
unwind yeah that's a factor but the dollar short trade will come later in other words the dollar
going up isn't the predicate that's the consequence see, the money that's hiding in FAANG, where's it going?
Mortgages. Did you check Mortgage
News Daily today? It's free, everybody.
Just download it or
get the app.
Mortgage News Daily.
for the
seven-year fixed
six-month reset.
That's one basis point from a three-year low.
Wait, so are you saying that rates are generally going to go up?
No, they're going to collapse.
They're going to collapse.
Oh, you think rates are going down?
They're going to collapse because they're going to get all the money
that's been hiding in Fang.
Yeah, but that would create more volatility, right?
What?
That would create more volatility, right?
No, no, no, no, no.
Okay.
No, no, no.
No, no.
Volatility is too high.
So I have a, you know what?
Let me put it up in the nest.
It helps you visualize what volatility really is in my world.
Let me get it from my favorites.
In fact, we'll do that and we'll do the move index, my proprietary move index.
David, MBB is up like a percent and a half after hours.
That's nothing. That's just people wanting to buy mortgages. proprietary move index David and maybe MBBs up like a percent and a half after hours.
Eh, that's nothing. That's just people wanting to buy mortgages.
There was, I think a dividend puked out cause it pays you like 5% almost.
So that doesn't have a lot of liquidity, but I just, I just, I think I just put it up there.
Uh, are you going agency M uh, MBS or like, I only want government backing are you kidding me i don't
trust anybody right the government can print they can print as much as they want if they have to
print and the dollar goes down f them you know but they can print states can't print uh other people
can't print okay i'm putting this up in the. This is both how I look at volatility and also the move index,
broken up into its three timeframes.
The GFC period, when it's super exploded because rates went to zero,
then the resolution of that, and then you had a decade of inflation,
and this period, which is three times as much, adjusted for the global balance sheet.
I mean, the U.S. does their balance sheet sheet and so i can't see anything but deflation i i mean how do you
explain a two a 3.6 percent to your note when you have seven percent nominal gdp you go explain that
to me explain it tell me so which which which which way which way do you think rates are going
so you think rates are they're going to again? The long end is going towards zero.
We're going to get so...
Why do you think the long end is going down?
Because people...
You mean by price right now?
Or why do I think the...
The rate, not the price.
The reason why the rate should go down
is because everyone thinks there's a glut of duration in the world
and they're wrong there's a shortage their math is wrong but what do you think what do you what
do you think the short end is going to do do you think the short end like the the treasury no we
could have some problems there the economy is going to be smoking we're going to be growing at
four to five percent for the next two years so so there'll be no deficit there'll be no deficit so
okay so if you believe that like the economy is going to grow more quickly
like doesn't that mean that all rates get pulled up like i'm glad you said that i'm glad you said
that it's one of the classic misunderstandings and in quantum finance which is my field i do
macro and micro but we do the quantum.
You're just not looking at it correctly. What happens when the deficit goes away because we're growing more than 1.8% that destroys the supply that you need.
Just because the office of management and budget says we're only going to grow at 1.8,
it doesn't mean that we're not actually growing at 4%. So we're just going to run out of supply.
And you know what those 50-year mortgages?
Supply and supply and supply of what?
Of treasuries, yeah.
This is what happened under Clinton.
Well, at the short end of the law.
If your deficit is at 5.8 down from Biden's 9,
on its way to 4.8 and 3.8,
and the world economy is growing at 3.8,
you're running out of paper, you're running out of duration
and we're not going to stop
you mean there's
going to be an undersupply of long term
government debt
absolutely
but you know I'm just very skeptical
well it happened twice before
under Kennedy and Bush
if you give politicians an excuse to borrow a fuck ton of money
that they can spend on their technical projects,
they're absolutely going to take that.
You know something? It's not true.
Why? Because we know.
The deficit just fell 3.8%.
Oh, my car's dead.
Yeah, I thought it would be.
It's so cold over here.
I brought my charger.
Yay! Okay, let me just uh okay so you're i mean my let me let me let me see my thesis my thesis is actually that ai over the next couple of decades ai is going to make the economy grow a lot faster
and because of that i think all of the rates are no no no no you. Fred, you're exactly wrong. You're exactly wrong. AI is going to collect a lot of taxes.
It's going to grow.
If NACA's right, then
Sandus goes to like 5,000,
doesn't it? It does, but not right away.
The problem with NACA's view is...
It's hard to
call the individual stuff.
What you're saying is AI
is going to grow. That means it's collecting
taxes, which means our deficit goes away. AI is going to grow. That means it's collecting taxes, which means our deficit goes away.
Everything is going to grow.
Well, no, I don't actually think so, because what's going to happen is as—
Can you tell me what's happening now?
If the economy grows—
Can you tell me what's happening now, not what you think will happen?
What's happening now?
If the economy grows more, it will make sense for governments to want to spend more.
No, not in America.
We're going private sector. We're not Europe.
I want to know what's going
on now. Please don't tell me about the future.
I'm from the church of what's working now.
What's happening now? The deficit fell
3.2%.
We're in a transitional period.
The government... So my position
that AI is going to increase
economic growth a lot is not consensus.
So the government is actually trying to cut deficits, which is a mistake.
They shouldn't be doing that, but they haven't realized it's a mistake.
It's not a mistake.
It's fantastic.
We're going private sector.
Public spending is inflationary because it's not repeated like when someone gives you money and you spend it out when you want to buy and then you buy it again.
Yeah, I know that. I know that that i'm not saying it's good i'm just saying i'm just saying you tell me when they actually grow the deficit and then i'll join you but they're not
it's collapsing i mean well i mean if if you know if republicans do badly in the midterms you know
again i'm asking you don't tell me your mind reading of the future.
Tell me what's going on now.
What's going on now is the deficits collapsing.
I told you, I told you,
I told you they're reducing deficits
because they don't realize how much AI is...
I don't care why. It doesn't matter to me why.
I care what's happening now.
Okay? And what's happening now...
Well, it's a long-term view not a okay but
i can't make i won't be dead in the long term i won't be on wabi spaces in the long term i want
to know what's going on now and the deficits are well i don't know about that you might you might
have ai solving aging for us right okay but again that's not this month that's not this year i gotta make money i gotta
feed the monster yeah i mean look i'm not taking a strong position on the short-term moves and i'm
taking a strong position okay well that you do you right like you do you know i'm saying that what i'm
i want people to know what's happening now instead of being scared about doing something now that's working because maybe in the future
might stop working and that's only a maybe okay we need to make money now we're hungry now
not hungry later we're hungry now and m2 is hungry and the algos are hungry and the algos
are smothering volatility okay i'll tell you guys what's going to happen with interest rates
the next couple years i think we're in an area.
Evan, you got to back up with that voice, bro.
What are you, a voiceover specialist?
The ad agency says that's some handsome voiceover there.
Dude, I'll tell you guys what's about to happen.
Bro, dude, bro, if there are any women on this space, man,
you're going to cause some money some you have a voice for tv happen bro you have a face
for radio you have a voice for tv well thank you thank you well modern tv is all social media that's
all i used to be yeah yeah that was that was the old career about six seven years ago um but
anyway let me talk about what i think is going to happen with interest rates.
We're in a similar situation, I think, kind of early 2000s for like your TLT stuff of that nature.
Can you tell us what happened then as a frame?
Yes.
Let me get the chart up.
So generally sideways bullish, I think.
So generally sideways bullish, I think.
And I think the big thing you need to get the TLT to really jump up and your interest rates to really go down a lot.
And I mean by really go down a lot, like those numbers, zero, that you're mentioning, I think inevitably you're going to get there.
Definitely because of the debt.
And I do think long term the debt will rise, especially in the 2030s.
Maybe not.
Short term. Oh, yeah. When AOC gets in, we'll see. Oh, no, no, no in the 2030s. Maybe not. Short-term.
Oh, yeah.
When AOC gets in, we'll see.
Oh, no, no, no, no.
Well, let me just say one thing.
Thank God, Mom, Donnie wasn't born in America.
I just say one thing that you could go.
One thing, one thing.
Every single empire has never been able to get it under control.
This would be the first time in history that an empire or world power was able to get it under control.
You know what's different?
You know what's different?
What's different?
AI is a slave force that will collect the taxes for us. You know what's different? You know what's different? AI is a
slave force that will collect the taxes for us. That's what's different. AI robots, they'll do
all the work. They'll collect all the taxes. We have the intellectual property. We're going to
charge a tax on everyone in the world. That's it. So I think that'll take some time. Oh, absolutely.
Absolutely. Whenever, whenever, you know, but anyway, please continue. Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. It may be 20, 30 years.
Anyway, please continue.
That's a good point.
I think inevitably that'll be a while, I think.
But yeah, so I think that you need asset prices to drop.
When do asset prices drop?
The next time you see potentially a recession.
When do you see potentially a next recession? Well, what if you can't have a recession because we're growing at 4%?
Well, I think that'll eventually end because once your gig economy dies out, I think that's one of the big things that's kept unemployment low, your gig economy.
Once Waymo takes over.
I think you're missing something.
Let me just finish.
Yeah, please.
You could rebut everything just in a second.
But once Waymo and once you cannot deliver food for, you're already seeing it in a lot of the major cities, little robots delivering food.
Once the economy dries up, once AI replaces a lot of those low-end jobs, and that's kind of what made unemployment go down generally from 2015 all the way until now.
Now you're starting to see it creep up with AI.
up with AI. I think that causes kind of the next recession. In general, we follow cycles generally
I think that causes kind of the next recession.
every eight to 12 years, you know, from 2020 to 2022, consider a mild recession, at least eight
years from there would bring it around 2030. I think that's when you see that. That's when you
see S&P 500, your typical, you know, adjusted for inflation, maybe 40, 50% correction, your typical
recession numbers. And that's when you see rates go down a real lot.
That's when you see rates go down. That's when you see your TLT jump up and then you start your
lost decade, your typical lost decade, probably in the 2030s. That's probably a transitionary period,
2030s, 2040s, where you see China, you know, get the world's largest GDP, probably in the 2040s, if history is any indication. Then the 2050s is when deficit, you know, the U.S. is kind of forced to, you know,
2040s, 2050s were forced to be more conservative, deficit goes down. That's kind of similar, I think,
what the U.K. was forced into, you know, correct me if I'm wrong, in the, you know, 1940s, 1950s,
as the U.S., you know, took over as the world power. So I think it's just, it's all cycles, man. That's what I think. So yeah, go ahead.
Yeah. I just, I just didn't get my phone up.
Yeah. That, that, that makes like no sense to me. I'll tell you why you're leaving out the
biggest thing. You've got American consumers who paid a fortune to be able to pay lower rates and
have more disposable income in their housing
expense and jp morgan and those crooks they they didn't allow that to happen they said oh you can
refi just come back with a 40% deposit
so nobody could do
the refi.
Is this the right one?
Yeah.
Nobody could do the refi.
So you had the recession
of the GFC. Go back
to 2000 that you brought up.
Okay.
You're cutting out. I don't don't know your signal or something you can't but you hear him you cut out no i'm trying to uh now i can hear you
oh my god what a miracle i started the car
ay ay ay where are you alaska no i'm in manhattan you can't believe what a freak show this place is
so now i can stay here you guys are going to be stuck with me because i'm going to stay here for
a long time um uh charging my car because i got to go somewhere early in the morning
and i can't deal with this then okay so. So you mentioned a recession. I don't
know where that comes from, right? Between 2028 to 3032, you think there's no chance of a recession?
Zero. We have the greatest amount of housing equity of all time, 35 trillion. We have the least amount of debt since 1950. Trump announced
that Blackstone
cannot buy a used home.
If they want to put money
in housing,
they got to build new homes.
You cut out again.
I think we lost them.
I sent Promet sent another invite prometheus okay so the key is you're just leaving out the whole mortgage engine you know mortgages
you have very high volatility powell is rolling on 420 billion annually for a year that's that's
insane that's like saying you have to find someone else
to buy the mortgage that we have. While Americans are trying to afford a home, this sick bastard
is making you find a foreigner. Next, you have Trump saying, I'm going to buy 200 billion two
weeks ago. Last week, he said, oh, wait, that's a typo. We're going to buy $200 billion per agency. That's $400 billion.
Okay, mortgage rates, we're one basis point from a three-year low.
Can I at least get that?
What happens when mortgage rates fall?
We fell 192 basis points in less than 11 months in October of 2023, October 29th.
We're going to get so much disposal.
Main Street is going to be so freaking happy.
What is this whole nonsense with Iran?
There's no way Trump is seriously going to bomb Iran
seven months before an election and take oil to 70.
It's a spoof to trick people to buy oil
so you can get oil and gasoline all the way down.
Just like every other trick.
He said liberation to April 2nd.
Then he drove up the move index on treasuries.
And on June 28th,
I put out a podcast. That's it. It's coming right down. It was like 96 on the way to 106.
Now it's in the 50s. So mortgage activity is so coiled. We had Biden hibernation with all that
spending. But once we get these rates, and I don't care if it's the long rate or the adjustable,
But once we get these rates, and I don't care if it's the long rate or the adjustable.
The adjustable rate is near a three-year low.
It's one base point from a three-year low.
And we're going to have a 4% mortgage soon.
My mortgage rate is 7.3.
When should I refinance?
You should call your bank tomorrow morning and say,
Rockets offering five and three quarters.
What can you do without any fee?
They're not.
They're offering that.
I've looked.
It's like low sixes for 30 years, the refi rate.
For me, for a high rise in Miami.
Oh, well, you're not buying a house.
Oh, okay. There's a big difference?
Okay.
Yeah.
There's a lot more risk in your building tipping over with an earth cake.
Remember that pancake building that they just settled for $100 million, I think?
Anyway, so rates are coming down.
When rates come down, so let's just do some basic accounting, okay?
FASB, basic stuff.
We remember Silicon Valley Bank.
We remember that they were buying these 2% mortgages,
2.5% mortgages. Powell raised rates. They blew up. They blew up. Okay. What happened to their
paper? Their Fannie Mae 2.5s traded at 80 cents on the dollar. The prepayments went from 25%
prepayments on a pool of mortgages, meaning you're getting your 2% interest,
25% prepayment, let's say 23% prepayment. You get 25% cash flow. It's like a four-year piece
of paper. He raises rates. That thing goes to a 10-year piece of paper. You get no prepayments.
You had no cash coming in. People smelt that, and they ran them into the ground.
Well, what happens in the reverse direction?
What happens when rates go down?
These mortgage rates are going up.
Excuse me, these mortgage bonds are going up.
People are getting more prepayments.
They get more cash flow.
And this is the nuance that I try to highlight on our spaces,
is that the independent mortgage broker, Rocket and United,
they're now the number one and number two mortgage issuer.
They issue a mortgage and that mortgage is done as an agent, not as a principal.
And they're putting it in the hands of a pension, an insurance company, an ETF. There's no leverage
on that stuff. The bank has 10 leverage. The bank makes a buck. That's $10 worth of loans in the system. That loan gets scraped off. They got to
put that mortgage onto a regular person's pension insurance with no leverage. What does the bank do?
They get all this cash back. They can't get a mortgage right away. You can't issue it. They
got to immediately buy the treasury. What happened tofsi right who's going to hold that going into earnings you see mortgage rates at the
low you have a record uh you had the highest refi practically in a couple of years pfsi is not
juicy it's not attractive and it's down 35 40 okay rocket Okay. Rocket, they keep their paper.
They refi, they keep their servicing.
Let me just do this.
The average 30-year mortgage rate right now is still above 6%.
That is not true.
No, it's not.
Okay, what is it then?
Tell me.
Oh, no, no, I'm sorry.
I thought you were not talking about newish,
or I thought you were talking about existing.
So existing, 22% of mortgages are 6% and above, and 20% of mortgages are 6% and above and 20% of mortgages
are 3% and below. And that's the typical argument people say, oh, how can you have refi when so many
mortgages are at such low yields? The fixed rate mortgage is 617 according to Mortgage News Daily
today, which means 599 with a point for a house. Where would you see that in six to 12 months?
In 12 months, down about a buck, buck and a quarter.
Okay.
I'd be on board.
About a buck.
Yeah.
Okay.
I'd be on board with that.
Around 5%.
But this is where the problem is, friend.
The adjusted rate mortgage is the big problem because they're now only at a 560.
And if you go the five-year, one-year, it's at a 540, 535. You get any kind of cuts, those are going into the high.
