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Market Talk- BTC at 92k! New highs for crypto incoming!? SOL 200 soon?
Recorded: April 22, 2025 Duration: 1:16:18Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the recent surge in Farcoin and Soul prices, highlighting significant growth trends and the potential for Bitcoin to reach new highs. The conversation also touched on the cautious optimism surrounding the tokenization of real-world assets and the impact of gold's performance on crypto markets.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you oh
I hope in time we need a way to relieve the lonely
Six twenty days of each of my heart and me
Send a message to the sky, wounded soldiers let you die
We'll lay the law, we'll take it home
Dedication, dedication, and a number of everything to all dedication dedication
sorry
sorry I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Oh God. Oh, I think it's time.
Walk out. It's time.
Walk out.
It's time.
I'm not going to bring up on the side. Oh, my God. So nice to meet you. I'm so excited.
He's a tough guy.
He's a great painter.
We met him.
So, I'm gonna try to out a time.
I'm gonna try to out a time.
I'm gonna try to out a time. oh
sorry what's going on guys welcome welcome back to the show prometheus matt it's gonna be a fantastic
discussion hope you're all doing fine man what uh what a great day what a great day honestly guys
I think the first thing I'm gonna do is uh mention farcoin we've been uh talking about far
coin practically during every single episode of these streams over the last month since um
it was just doing nothing from 20 to 30 cents now it has a one handle and uh hype up 2x off the lows
and hype up 2x off the lows S&P just doing nothing honestly while crypto has just been
doing phenomenal over the last couple of weeks here we have the FOMC in about two weeks and
you know as we've been saying on these streams, on these specific streams here on X Spaces, for the most part, all this tariff talk, all of these macro fears had essentially come to a climax when you had a four on the S&P 500 and you had sole trading in the single digits.
that were so enthusiastic about meme coins all the way down from their december and january top
just bull posting relentlessly all the way till an 80 90 drawdown getting bearish at the lows
and now they're gone like this market has been absolutely brutal honestly over the last uh over the last 12 months to be frank and now you have soul 65 plus from its low
you have hype 100 off of its low far coin up 400 plus 500 plus i think i think it'd be like yeah
500 off of its low and nothing but cr. And nothing but crickets, honestly.
Nothing but crickets.
I'd expect a bit more noise, honestly.
And all I really see from those bull posters is just mirad.
And that's pretty much it.
I think the froth from Q4 and Q1 of last year has been completely wiped and decimated.
And with these markets, it's usually not until a lot of participants are wiped out from the market that the market actually trends higher.
And we saw that after the yen carry trade.
A lot of alts actually did not make newer highs compared to their Q1 2024 highs during the next leg up in Q4.
And that's kind of been the story for the entire cycle, right, since the FTX lows.
A lot of things that were trending in Q2 and Q3 of 2023 did not make new highs by a substantial amount during the next
leg up it's still been very much a rotational based cycle if people haven't rotated they've
essentially bled out against majors i mean just look at bt dominance, right? There is no point in trying to chart out a TWOP from institutions that have majority stake in products that we use each and every day.
Institutions like BlackRock, which are one of the largest entities in real estate on the entire planet and they have a monopoly
on practically every industry that you can think of whether it's home goods whether it's tech
blackrock has its foot and i just don't really buy into larry Finkelstein's narrative on the tokenization of real world assets because nobody knows what that is.
Nobody knows what ticker it is.
It's just a bunch of yap.
And funny enough, we haven't really seen Larry Finkelstein go on national TV to talk about this asset class as much.
But what we do see on TV is a bunch of people talking about gold.
Gold hit another all-time high today.
And we might be thinking to ourselves,
if gold is roaring to new all-time highs,
that means an explosive move imminent for BTC is incoming.
Well, we saw this trend last year during that huge range that we saw
from March all the way to August when we had that range break to the downside and then started that
next leg up. Gold was absolutely chatting and all BTC was able to do was test the upper range at
70,000. And if we compare that right to what we're seeing right now, then our upper range at 70 000 and if we compare that right to what we're seeing right now then our
upper range would probably be about 100k right right above 100 and k and our our our bottom range
would probably be like 75 77k and the difference between now and then is that we don't really have nvidia chatting it's
really just a flight of safety if you want to call it that to gold and i guess you can say for btc but
something to know and tommy said this during our afternoon discord call was that the percentage that gold has gone up over the last two weeks
Which is roughly 15% that is effectively
Adding in a substantial amount more to gold's market cap than the entire crypto asset class. So, you know
Seeing something like BTC doubling from these levels in like two to three weeks
might seem like a shocker to some people, but it could be possible. That's not my base case, but it could be possible.
And if you do see BTC going into price discovery to $120, $130K, then there is a possibility that
that could be the next sort of major top.
And even sign up a lot of people, kind of like that 69K top from the cycle before,
and just have people screaming about an incoming alt season,
which unironically has marked the top multiple times over the last few years.
For the last few years, November of 21, when BTC hit 69K, Luna was on the verge of breaking like 65 or 70 bucks.
Solana was close to breaking 260.
AVAX had just breached 100 and something bucks.
And I remember the sentiment was like, all right, all season is coming.
All season is coming. All season is coming.
We never got that.
Same thing happened in March of last year.
Same thing happened in December of last year as well.
It's really just been like pockets of outperformance on certain sectors over the last couple of years.
until we see a trade deal between the U.S. and China, it's really difficult to kind of see this
market go into some sort of QE or access stimulus. And Tommy touched upon that as well, right? So
unless the trade deal is made between the U.S. and China, there's not really going to be much stimulus that occurs, but that huge drop in the DXY is, you know, I guess some alpha,
but honestly I haven't really given much credence to things like DXY.
I mean, if I'm honest, I really just use daily EMAs on majors,
and I use things like CoinGecko and Dex Green.
I like to keep it pretty
simple like i i find that if you try to be smart and logical in a market that's irrational you're
just gonna develop monkey brain and you're gonna end up in a sandbox chasing your own tail
and not really get much and that's how that's how
frustration is developed in these markets but nonetheless um new fresh highs new fresh local
highs for four coin new fresh local highs uh for hype and honestlype looks damn good. And I'd encourage you all to look at the Hype BTC pair.
It is one of the, I think it is the only BTC pair that actually looks pretty damn bullish.
And this is an asset that has been trading for five months now.
for five months now and usually most assets in this market if they're new within their first
hundred days they're absolutely fucking cooked and they just look like shit and that's just been
the trend um for multiple years now since the ftx flow with some of these new on-chain tickers after their first 100 days or so their btc pair is just
forever fried forever fried zero bid on its btc pair but that's pretty much like my opening
statement guys i'm feeling pretty bullish on btc i think you could see 100k pretty imminently
we broke through that first mini boss which we've've been talking about, which is 88K and change.
And again, all these spaces are recorded.
You guys can go ahead and rewind them and all that stuff.
We called the bottom in real time at 74K, BTC, $90 soul, Farcoin at 20 cents.
Even, I'm going to barf on my mouth even uh 1300 eth um
and with the s p man it is really really tricky because we could be in a situation where like
equities could make one final low as they did in early Q4 23 while the broader crypto asset class still
looks good and that is a very real thing and we do have that confluence with gold just continuing
to mark up and people trying to call the top on gold over and over and over again. Gosh, I really don't know what to say about that.
As toppy as gold looks,
there just has to be some more alpha
outside of just looking at gold, honestly.
I think like at some point,
the narrative is just gonna shift to people
just paying attention to Bc as a gauge for people
bidding risk right like am i saying that perhaps crypto is front-running equities perhaps i'm
feeling more confident in that there's some actual strength and again when you had a lot of people
that have a lot of reach on this app, uh, bull posting all the
way down to some of these egregious lows and then bear posting at the bottom.
You can't make it up.
You really can't make it up.
And that's usually how bottoms are formed.
The same people that went to bat for world Liberty fly and Trump buying all these shit
coins were telling people to be careful, be careful,
all right? When the S&P was near its 200 weekly moving average, it's time to be careful.
I don't really know about that. When you had the quickest drawdown in the equity markets
in years occur within less than two months happen, i think it was time to go absolutely crazy and
start and start bidding to be frank and you know what's what's what's awesome is that like there's
always a bull market somewhere there's always a bull market somewhere um but nonetheless guys
that's uh kind of my opening rant.
Um, feeling great.
BTC looks great.
Soul, I'm optimistic about soul, optimistic about hype, Farcoin.
And it's going to be a great stream.
Thank you all.
First and foremost, before we officially get started, I want to thank you all for tuning in.
Whether you're tuning in live right now in the audience or you're listening to the recording,
I want to thank you guys so much.
And of course, I want to thank Matt and Prometheus for coming on up.
I think we have Louie coming up, I think, but he might be taking care of his kid.
Donnie is doing another stream right now, so he won't be on the show today,
probably be on tomorrow.
And I think we're also going to have Chill come on later on.
But nonetheless, I want to thank you both for coming up.
And shout out to you guys in the audience, of course.
Before we officially get started, if you guys can go ahead and support the space, show some love to the space.
You might be asking yourself, Wabi, what's the best way to show some love to the space? If you can remind me, what's the best way that I can show my love and appreciation and support to all the streams that you do here at BB?
Well, I've got the answer for you guys.
The best way that you can show some love and support for the show is by clicking the spaces tab.
Right now, after you click the spaces tab, you'll see a little link above our profile pictures right above our avatars.
There's a little link above that says
x.com slash i slash spaces you guys can go ahead once you click that smash up the like button
please smash up the like button and most importantly guys you guys can go ahead and repost
and retweet the space as it does a number of things it helps out with the x algorithm
it helps out bring more eyes and ears to the space, helps to bring more awareness of the brand.
And of course, it doesn't take that much effort, helps please our tech overlords.
And I'd be forever thankful.
So with that being said, spaces are recorded as usual.
And for you guys in the audience, if you guys want to come on up,
ask some questions or more, more importantly, because I find that like basic Q&A is boring.
But if you guys want to come on up and just talk markets, talk your book, give your thoughts on
what's going on, feel free to hit that request button at the bottom left,
hit that mic, and I'll bring you right on up as I'd love to talk to some of you guys that haven't
come up. But if you want to come up and join the discussion, feel free to do so. But
without further ado, I want to first kick it off over to Matt haven't talked to Matt in a bit I know he's a bit on vacation but Matt what's going on brother how are you
doing quite some interesting price action man across the board equity
markets I'm still kind of like a bit iffy but I could see a bounce to like 5,700, right below 5,800 S&P, to be frank.
And a run to 100K BTC, man.
But how are you feeling, brother?
Thanks for coming up.
Hey, thanks for having me up.
Yeah, just a little spring break.
But my goodness, this latest move with Bitcoin and gold, obviously, it's caught everyone's attention.
It's captured everyone's focus.
I shared up in the nest six months ago, right before the Trump election, no one would have
predicted this price action.
You've got Bitcoin up over 30 percent you've got gold up
over 30 percent and everything from the s p 500 to nasdaq to dow to russell is all negative in fact
not just a little negative but a lot of it double digits negative that was that's in that's not one
week that's not one month that's not one quarter that's half not one month. That's not one quarter. That's half a year. That's six months. No one was predicting that. And yet here we are.
It paid if you didn't scare yourself out of the market.
It was just a big consolidation range.
And we were very confident in one, that Bitcoin had much higher to go.
And two, that it seems like year after year after year, Bitcoin has its, you know, call it 25% or 30% correction.
And it's always an incredible buying opportunity.
You know, so six months ago, we were coming out of 2024 is buying opportunity. And this sure looks like 2025 is right here. I'm not calling that's the last time we'll ever see 80k but I mean if you stayed up late last Monday or two
excuse me two weeks ago if you stayed up late last that Monday and you bought
78k 75k maybe even you know maybe even below 75k in the in 74 is like congrats
you probably bought the lowest price in 2025. You probably did. You really did.
So, you know, it pays to buy the dip. And it's nice to see less than two weeks later,
everyone who had that conviction is handsomely rewarded. We're back above 90K.
It's not a one-off. Like gold is showing exactly what the world thinks about
all this tariff turmoil and the geopolitical instability people are flocking to
safe assets that they know can't be diluted and money printed so they're buying up gold
and then sure enough now they're flooding into Bitcoin because it's Bitcoin's not some tiny little thing anymore bitcoins over one 1.5 1.6
trillion in market cap it's a big boy you know it's up there with the mag 7
it's big so people are people are piling in where we go from here quite frankly
I'm with you.
Gold looks really extended.
Gold looks like a blow-off top.
If gold was going any more parabolic, it'd start doing loop-de-loops.
So in my personal opinion, I think smart money starts to move.
Maybe their next dollar doesn't buy gold.
Maybe it buys Bitcoin.
And that's why I think it's been a fast catch-up trade.
I'm with you. I think even before we have any tariff clarity negotiations, deals, or whatever, there's no reason that Bitcoin can't keep floating up.
We're in the same range that we've been talking about for almost 200 days, Wabi.
Bitcoin has traded in the uh in
the low 90s at 95 at 102. like it's all the same range so there's no reason that bitcoin can't keep
floating up uh throughout the rest of spring here you know so um i'm i'm incredibly bullish uh you
know i didn't i didn't nail the exact bottom, but I was pounding the table over and over again that unless Bitcoin falls below $76K and closes its weekly candle below $76K, it's still a bull market. It's still an amazing buy opportunity.
still, um, uh, amazing buy opportunity and it sure looks like, um, that's proven right. So,
um, I think, uh, last but not least, I think, look, if you didn't, if you were worried,
if you were scared, if you didn't buy 75 K 80 K 85 K forgive yourself now and look back, look back at 2024. If you bought anywhere in that
consolidation range, that was smart. You know, if you bought anywhere last year in 2024 between
call it 50k to 70k, that was correct. And you're still in profit to today. So think about that for
right now. Like, all right, whatever you were were in a coma you didn't have money available you were scared out whatever but the smart move is to still buy
as much bitcoin as you can in the double digits before it hits before it goes back into triple
digits because then then you'll really be kicking yourself yeah and also matt maybe in the future
and i always thought about this like maybe there's going to be a limit to how much you can actually buy on these exchanges.
Because right now it's super easy to buy any of these assets.
And I just think in the future, it's just going to be like they're going to restrict how much you can actually buy,
or even self-custody, honestly.
um yeah it's not me you do see some countries like india they they they have really odious
Yeah, you do see some countries like India.
tax treatment on um bitcoin and cryptocurrency uh yeah i'm with you i'm um right you know we're
kind of in a nice goldilocks era where there's very few restrictions at least in the western world
yeah and and even with like even with like uh with like altcoins
right like every cycle it just gets like more difficult and more difficult and more difficult
and you just have to like get into some of these circles where you just have access to information
that most people don't right like in 2017 um it was as simple as throwing a dart, right?
And in 2020, 2021, just buy what 3AC was buying or what Alameda was buying.
It was that simple, right?
And after that first initial run-up in Q1 of 2021, most alts had actually topped out on their bitcoin pair uh chain link and a lot of other defi uh tokens topped out in q3 of uh of 2020 during that like tail end of defi summer right
and that that stuff has just never come back right we had ave and that was like the last
but i think you touched on the reason why wabi i i was listening
to your opening statement and you know larry finkelstein as you like to call him and others
like talking about real world assets on the blockchain and i heard you immediately dismiss
it and be like yeah you're gonna have to prove it I think that's, I don't think that's just you.
I think a lot of, I don't know, call it smart money or old money or people who have been here for a cycle or two, they're not willing to just like, oh, let me just pile into the latest narrative.
Because it doesn't seem to, it's not working as easily as it did in past cycles. Like you said, it's,
you know, it's not 2020, it's not 2017 anymore.
It's not 2021 anymore.
And I think some people want to see some of this actually work before they're
just going to light money on fire. And that's why everyone's just like,
look, I'll let me go play, you know, what a fart coin or whatever. Right. Because, because that it's like, look, let me go play, you know, fart coin or whatever.
Right.
Because that, it's like, look, I can see it on the chart.
It's a momentum play, you know.
It's no different than like some no profit startup in equities, you know, or, okay, look at GameStop pumping.
It's the whole thing.
I'm just, you know, it's a momentum trade.
You get in, you ride it, and then you get out before the the big uh correction on the back side but
that that can make that makes sense to people yeah but not the just to i i totally uh agree with the
the fact that it's not easy anymore uh simply because if you were here since 2000,
or since the ETH ICO, right?
So from that point on,
you had basically ICO around,
the ICU phase where you basically,
there were no, literally like very few back channels.
There were quote-unquote fair launches.
Some projects actually kind of came out of that.
Binance came out of that.
A bunch of others that you guys know came out of that.
And then as we saw capital basically being made during the ICO, like the
post ICO, the guys that made money during the ICO or missed the ICO round, the ICO phase,
we saw them again with guys like DeFi Capital and all these guys basically reorganized themselves.
For example, the people that were, for example, in DeFi Capital or many of the VCs or the early funders of the DeFi stuff, they basically ganged up.
they basically ganged up, right?
And they were mostly worried about pushing tokenomics
and they understood that the game
was going to top at a certain point.
So they made sure that they can exit
with bags at certain points.
And then VCs came along at the same period, right?
And this time around, this cycle around,
I don't know if you remember,
but this first leg of the cycle,
any type of, remember, the restaking stuff,
anything that would hit TGE would hit TGE at a billion dollars.
Yeah, I remember ARB and OP,
Optimism and Arbitrum, those launches.
Optimism was actually a pretty good thing.
Yeah, they had little multi-month bumps back in 2023.
The thing with DeFi, man, is that unless the Russell was pumping,
DeFi is not going to do much.
And the only reason why DeFi actually did well
was literally because we had Qe and zirp and these vc firms
were looping leverage on zirp and qe and essentially like leveraging money and leveraging
money and that's why like right after if you if you look at the russell when it had that
generational top in february um of 21 i guess against the s&p well not generational top
because like the iwm has actually been in a multi multi multi-year downtrend like since i think
since inception like iwm has just been like almost down only for the most part um and when whatever whenever we when we had that complacency bounce in q1 of 21 you had uh
synthetics uh and a bunch of those other d5 things like topped out but not not to make the space like
a history lesson yeah honestly because like i don't really yeah let's talk about let's talk
about going forward let's talk about like yeah where we can go from there yeah so for me right now just a quick one uh just just one
note on the defy stuff i really think that the infrastructure the defy infrastructure is there
it needs to be revived and i think it will be revived by the stable coin act and when you have
uh local currency issued stable coins under this new stable coin.
When I say local, I say emerging market currencies because this whole DeFi stuff really makes
sense for underserved markets where you can serve them in their local currencies and their
local currencies are expressed in the form factor that is required to play in DeFi and other protocols that could make sense for
these countries and these users.
But Trump just said that China tariff won't be anywhere near 145%.
So things are pumping right now, which is pretty nice, man.
That's the nuts thing.
Sol is breaking out. Sol is about nice, man. That's the nuts thing.
Sol's breaking out.
Sol's about to break out.
Solana is about to make fresh highs.
Since... I think Sol right now is about to break.
I mean, did we really think, though,
that the tariffs were going to be $104?
I mean, come on.
Who really thought the tariffs were going to be $104?
I mean, it was, like who really thought the tariffs are going to be? You know what? For a couple of weeks.
It's that was it was blatantly obvious that it was a negotiation tactic.
And they were just I mean, they were just coming out.
They're just pulling numbers out of their ass.
Right. But if you think if you think you can make China lose face like that and trap it in some type of negotiating technique without having it getting back at you at maximum pain levels.
Either you don't know.
I don't know.
But there is, for me, disconnect.
Don't we understand the Chinese people in their Chinese culture?
You cannot make the Chinaman lose face. No, no, no cannot We're all in agreement with you like really agree. Yeah, you weren't
It's it's an it's an authoritarian communist regime where they are well familiar with
enduring decades if not hundreds of years of
decades if not hundreds of years of turmoil it's all about respect right right but like
you bow you know you show respect to the other yeah but if you had to bet if you had i'm just
saying if you had to bet on who has a higher tolerance from for pain your average chinese
citizen or your average american like come on it's, it's not even, come on now.
And it's really a very bad move of negotiation.
I don't understand.
Don't the administration in America has enough people
that understand Chinese culture?
No, of course not.
And how you negotiate with Chinese men?
Because, well, they do.
I mean, they don't.
I mean, come on.
If no, if I know it's a little too early to to judge this period of history, but come on.
Aren't we all in agreement that this was not really a well thought out plan? Come on. This was not a well thought out plan.
I'll give you an example. And this is obviously this is not the subject of the space, but I'll give you an example. And this is obviously, this is not the subject of the space, but I'll give you an example. It's very simple example. Besides the fact that I lived in Hong Kong for
11 years, et cetera, et cetera. Look, the U.S. administration has always had problems in the
Middle East until they sent Kushner to the Middle East. And Kushner made one single change over
everyone else. Is that when he came to the Middle East,
he asked Middle Eastern leaders,
how, what can I learn from you?
What are we, it's a way to do things, right?
It's the approach.
When you have the right approach with the region,
when you have sensibility to the culture,
not by wishing happy Ramadan like Obama used to do
and all that bullshit, no.
By having on the ground
actual effective change of behavior that shows that I understand the culture of the other,
then negotiations start. Then you put people at certain levels of respect that you don't consider
them as a sub. You consider them in par, you respect their culture, and then negotiation is negotiation.
A fight is a fight, but a fight starts with respect and ends with respect. Now, you take
the Chinese, you trap them into raising. So basically, you raise rates on everyone.
They raise rates on you. You drop rates on everyone else and you tell them, okay,
well, you have reacted where other nations did not react. So we're going to react even further
and we're going to show you a lesson. To the Chinese, they will...
That means if you think this is over, you are wrong.
This is not over.
They're going to drag this as much as they can because they know that the time is on their side. They think in a prospect of 15, 20 years where you have an...
I'm not...
Don't get me wrong.
I'm not against the US, etc. I'm just trying to explain that there is a cultural sensitivity
that goes beyond any type of material gains or any type of this. China has been disrespected
on the public stage and they took note of it. And I think this is very dangerous
behavior and tactic. And I hope everything goes well and we
pump again this is what i want really but but i think that there will be there is there will be
phase two phase three phase four phase five and they will drag this thing i really think so but
i hope not i hope i'm wrong i tweeted um um I think it was last week or maybe it was two weeks ago,
but I tweeted, you know, in six months when the U.S. and China both reduced their tariffs back to zero, back to square one,
we're all going to ask ourselves, what was the point of this?
And it's been two weeks and I'm already asking myself, what was the point of this and i'm it's been two weeks and i'm already asking myself what was the
point of this i don't see any i don't see any advantage or superior caveat or negotiation
either on china's side or the u.s side it looks like it was probably insider training man it looks
like it was all point trading i mean insider trading man. Insider trading? It has to be insider trading, man.
I don't know.
I don't know who had the Michael Burry level puts on Spy before this all kicked off,
but I don't think it was even that.
Not even the Michael Burry puts, the Michael Burry calls.
You see those QQQ calls go up like 17,000% or something on that 10% up move, the zero DTs.
That was nuts.
If you put in 10 grand, you could have printed 17 mil in like 10 minutes.
Yeah, it pays to be on the Trump signal chat, I guess.
Bro, man, that is fucking ridiculous that that's actually fucking
crazy man the the only trade that i can think of bro was like and i'm shooting myself in the foot
for this man because every cycle there's always that one trade that everybody misses right
last cycle i missed out on the hex trade even though i was i was gonna grab a bag i
just gave up on it because uniswap would not want would not like like if anyone used uniswap back
in the day like late 2019 early 2020 you'll remember that whenever you would paste a contract
address like if uniswap didn't verify like if it wasn't verified it would be like a bitch to buy
like it just would not load and i gave up on it and hex ended up going like 30 000 or whatever what about um what about this
cycle didn't you have a bunch of robin hood calls didn't i help didn't we talk that i talked you
into that last year didn't no no no i i just got some some like just some regular purchases on hood stock in February,
and then I sold those for like 15%.
That stock did a 7X.
You made 15%?
I'm talking this year.
I actually never, like last year and the year before,
we've been talking about hood for two years. I thought, like, last year and the year before, I never actually. No, yeah, we've been talking about this. We've been talking about Hood for two years.
I thought you bought some last year.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
So, like, I actually never bought.
No, what?
Like, I made it very clear.
Oh, you're killing me, Wabi.
You're killing me.
I thought you had that.
No, brother.
You were talking about calls.
I thought you had that. I, brother. You were talking about calls. I thought you had that.
I was.
No, no, no.
I said that things like hood and coin are good to pay attention to, right, for all coins.
Like, if you're bullish on alts, right, and, like, you don't really feel comfortable in exposing yourself because, you know, you're not confident on, I guess, like the OPSEC of the alt space, right?
Like if a major holder dumps, it causes a ripple effect and all that stuff.
Sure.
Then your best exposure would probably be some hood calls and some coin calls, which if anyone bought it during those times, they aged beautifully. beautifully but like me personally i always made it very clear that like i don't really dabble in the equity markets until it was pretty much near the top of uh the equity market like i bought some
costco i bought some hood i sold costco at break even even though it went up like four percent i
sold that at break even then i sold hood at like 15 percent gain um and then like i just got omega bearish on the entire crypto market when kanye
um was talking about a token and that just added oh yeah he was talking he was talking token oh
yeah yeah yeah basically when me and joe were talking about like oh like you know what if i
buy gold and borrow against it like that's when I that's like after that conversation it's like
all right like like maybe just like trad fi is a bit like cooked here and it was right but you know
we had the quickest bear market like ever like that was the fastest bear market ever and by
definition right it was a COVID crash it was almost like yeah if I took the if I took the
numbers away
and i just showed you a fractal you wouldn't be able to tell
coveted crash from whatever this last spring was
yeah yeah pretty much on spy like just looking at the s p 500 they almost look identical
and if we look at you know president administrations and all that stuff, they always have a bear market, whether it's the flash crashes that Obama had.
I think I think somewhere in like 2013 or something like that, either 2013 or 2011, one of those two years, there was like a multi-week period where the S&P also drew down like, you know, double digit percentage.
It was 2011. I only remember that because i
was in afghanistan and it made it even made the news out there yeah yeah so so every presidential
administration always has these mini bear markets right but trumps are have always been the fastest
always uh when it comes to equities of course right and the difference now is that like btc is now a tradify asset and i did
it's just really difficult to kind of try to apply that same volatility that it used to have right
like you remember in previous cycles btc would be down like 30 and then be back up back to local
highs right um it's just not the same thing anymore like there's barely any
v recoveries anymore right like we don't really have that right like just take a look at like
this move right here it's it's it's taken a couple of weeks whether it is before the books would be
so thin that like they would shoot right back up but now you have option option markets and tradify with these btc
etfs right like the fishes on our the fishes are now surrounded by the sharks and i think like
you know us crypto people we really underestimate just how deep the pockets are with some of these
tradify people i mean just take a look at gold 15 on gold in two weeks if that happened with btc that notional value that went
into gold btc would be at like 190k right now yeah right but it does go to show you when you
have these when you have these worldwide events um and people start piling into gold i mean
everything from countries down to family offices to retail, when the collective global mindset is like, I need to flee into gold or I need to flee into Bitcoin.
That's when gold goes up 100 percent in 100 days.
That's crazy.
The market doesn't move for a decade after.
I know. Right. Yeah.
But like think of that.
Think gold has a double digit trillion market cap.
It's massive. And yet when the world decides they want gold, they'll move it 100% in 100 days.
So that's, that's where I'm calling the top on gold. I'm calling the top on gold. If gold,
who else is buying the bag? No, yeah the bag no yeah yeah who else is the marginal buyer
i i said i said my yeah i put out my tweets i said my piece on gold uh retail interest
google searches google trends retail interest in gold is that literally a five-year high like the
thing is its best days were in the previous 100 days, not in the next 100 days.
Yeah, I talked about it on our YouTube live stream that we do in the afternoons.
And gold got the perfect storm.
It literally got the perfect storm. You know, where Russia and China are literally macroeconomic nations in the world.
And then you also had a global recession fear
and a flight to safety at the same time.
Well, not just a flight to safety, but also...
Out of U.S. debt.
Yeah, exactly what you just said there.
Yeah.
Where bonds didn't even look safe.
The U.S. bonds didn't even look safe the united states treasuries yeah
it was literally the perfect storm and now you know peter schiffmeister you know can be happy
with his 50 60 percent that he got in the 10 you know over the past few months but sitting you know
probably flat on his port the next 10 years um you got to think
that that is going to create and funds and the rebalancing that's going to occur and
oh that's going to transfer out of uh gold and then you know where is it going to go i think
the energy sector is going to benefit greatly um from what we just saw on gold and then also you want to talk about the
disparity between silver and gold um i think that's so i'm for higher i know i did there i get there
i get off silver's um like well before the tariff announcement i think like from a chart perspective
i thought silver looked great um you, you know, and then obviously
what occurred occurred. Um, but you know, the, I mean, I don't, we don't have to bore the room
with all, with a gold and silver debate, but I think what's more interesting is if you think
that gold just had a blow off top and that sure looks like a blow off top.
The geopolitical uncertainty, though, is not over.
It's not like everything's back to status quo
and the tariffs are a thing of the past
and we're all back to January 19th, 2025.
No, we're still uncertain moving forward and that's where i think uh that
bitcoin catches the next bid uh and continues to float higher um you know people are still unsure
if it's a good idea to buy that massive isn't that what isn't that when crypto begins its next bull cycle? Anytime everything looks uncertain, unsure, it usually marks the start of the next leg up, right?
Yen carry trade.
BTC at $48K.
Peter Schiflestein makes his long thread about BTC does a space.
A couple of weeks ago, Sol hits 90 bucks.
Schifelstein commented it on his spaces.
And while BTC was at 73K, Finkelstein, Larry was nowhere to be seen LARPing about ETH.
World Liberty Phi sold their fucking ETH at the bottom.
Like Jeets. They were selling it relentlessly it relentless dude what a disgrace like what that was staying i found that hilarious what what
they're such a stain though like they're such a schmear you know what i'm saying well i mean
it was a mistake for them to buy it period and they bought the they bought the local top
uh it might be fun you know six months from now or a year from now, we might be,
we might be laughing that, oh, they thought they sold the local bottom, but then the bottom kept
bottoming. Yeah, man. But no, I'm with you, Wabi. That's the interesting thing about this time right now,
that people are waking up realizing,
oh, Apple is not a store of value
because if this tariff crap keeps dragging its feet,
Apple's going to miss their earnings.
They're not going to make as much profit and margin.
They're going to have to reshore different manufacturing
to here, there, everywhere.
Same thing for NVIDIA.
Same thing for Tesla.
Same thing for XYZ.
You quickly start to realize that whatever you thought was a store of value is not.
It still comes down to gold and it still comes down to Bitcoin.
And it still comes down to Bitcoin.
And that's when you catch this.
And that's when you catch this.
That's where you capture all the mind share and this unexpected bid.
And again, I point back up in the nest.
No one had this prediction six months ago before Trump, before the election, that you would be staring at gold up 30 percent, Bitcoin up 30 percent.
And every other index would be in the red
by almost double digits.
No one had that prediction at all.
And yet here we are.
And those who have been in Bitcoin for a while,
no one thinks that this is the top either.
Like, yeah, 91, you know,
wake me up when it's triple digits again.
Yeah, no, I mean, I completely agree. It's because Trump had been talking about tariffs for,
you know, the majority, the majority of the time that he was trying to get elected. Right. And so
that wasn't, you know, it wasn't unheard of that he wanted tariffs,
right. That was to be expected, but it's the manner in which everything unfolded and occurred.
Um, and yeah, it was in nobody's cards like this, uh, the series of events that have occurred,
um, were so far, um, were so little from a probability perspective now it's taking the market some
time to adjust and we're in that adjustment period and i think that you could see you know a window
of um you know a positive environment for for stocks and and crypto but you also have to take
into account like there are long-term ramifications
and effects that this, um, is going to bring down the pipeline. And we haven't really seen that yet.
You know, it takes a lot of time for that to actually work its way into the data that the
Fed looks at. And, um, you know, these recessionary models and metrics and you know it just takes time so i think you have a nice window to actually uh see a really solid bounce across the board but i don't i i
just don't see how we're just primed for new you know all-time highs and unless you know the fed
starts cutting and we get you know qe zerp again imminently but that's i think it's it's we're in this like of
a hazy period in the market you know it's the best way to put it
yeah bitcoin still has that risk profile that i don't know it's wild like people would rather buy what's
clearly a blow-off top on gold with a has a market cap of what what is it 15
trillion now who know who even know more way not I'm pretty sure 20 trillion okay
right like what people would rather buy a 20 trillion dollar blow off top than Bitcoin in the 80s or even the low 90s. Yeah, you know,
I stopped believing in efficient markets and the intelligence of masses a long time ago.
I see. I think the markets to an extent are not necessarily efficient, but they do the best job
at pricing. I don't want to bore the space, but pricing in, you know, discount the flows and, and, you know, the, and everything and
liquidity. Um, but in, you know, less than, in less than six months from a six month and less
timeframe horizon, the markets are extremely inefficient. Um, extremely, there we go. 92 K.
All right. But yeah, I mean, I right but yeah i mean i'm in the same
i'm in the same camp and i mean in uh the that group chat you know i had mentioned that bitcoin
is is kind of making a argument for it being a you know a player now in the currency war, right?
And it being kind of that store of value,
anti-fiat narrative that everybody's discussed for so long,
it kind of making an argument for that now,
especially the way it's behaved.
I think it could, I forget where I read this,
but the market cap of Bitcoin is very interesting right here. It's the same size,
roughly, as the rest of the MAG-7 or the top 10, whatever you want to call them,
in S&P 500, you know, from your Apple, Google, Meta, Tesla, Berkshire, etc. It's right there, right in between, right in the, in the midst of the top 10. So in a way, um, and now with especially spot ETFs on every single exchange, every tradfire
exchange and, and soon to your own 401ks, it, it definitely is in the sweet spot in
prime position for, okay, I want to, I'm still bullish the markets, but I want to be in a store
of value. I don't want to have exposure, unexpected exposure to tariffs or whatever, like, oh, you
were, you, you were overweight Nike and you didn't realize that half of their factories are in
Vietnam and Thailand. And there's a tear and like, you know, people don't want to have to do all that napkin math.
And they just want to be bullish market with some chance at outperformance.
And why not Bitcoin?
It's right there, right in the top 10.
So, yeah, I think it's really in in a nice position right here a nice sweet spot
nothing else in the top 10 you could argue maybe berkshire but nothing else in the top 10
nothing else in the top 10 has the uh the digital gold uh widespread narrative description that Bitcoin does right here.
So, yeah, again, I think that it can keep floating up in price.
Why can't it revisit low triple digits?
You know, it was barely two, three months ago where we'd ping pong between 100K and 105.
So, yeah.
Matt, I think the last thing you want to see is Trump tweeting out some altcoin tickers.
I really don't want to see that happen, brother. God, please. Like, just, I think the most bullish thing would be if, like, World Liberty FII just list like sells the rest of their stack and they just like refund everyone who participated in their ICO and like just have them focus on BTC.
Right.
Like when you have the large institutions focus on Bitcoin, dude, that creates a bull market.
When they start focusing on all coins, that's what creates these bear markets man like the moment the eth etf went live every single thing that was trending up until
that point got absolutely destroyed and if and if like people did not bid ai vaporware on soul
and like two or three meme coins on soul they just didn't do anything
for the rest of the cycle so yeah what are some things that you guys don't want to see right to
entertain like the other side of the coin even though like right now we all agree that like
you know there's a high probability that not that btc probably retests its upper range no no weakness you don't want to see any softness
you don't want to see any weakness in u.s labor market in in um unemployment and um initial
weekly jobless claims you don't want to see any of that matt i'm just gonna interrupt you real quick
bitcoin's shooting way way up we just bounced all the way up to 93.6 on a straight candle oh
look at that love to see it i'm guessing is what exchange what exchange it has to be trump's like
that's going back you know did trump blink it has to be he said he wasn't gonna fire powell he said
he wasn't gonna fire powell that's a blank he's cutting back on the tariffs and all that stuff like like dude you remember when joe
was hosting that space mat when futures opened up on spx the 4800 and soul was at 90 bucks and
everyone was opening shorts on soul which was clown clown behavior to be honest and i went up
there and and t-bonds tina you know, T-Bone's Tina, remember him?
He was like, he was like, pal's not going to do anything unless the S&P has a three-handle.
What are you talking about? And then I, and then I told him that joke. I'm like, Tina, man, I love
it. You know, when you, when you come up and humor us, uh, let me ask you a question. When does a joke,
when does a dad joke, uh, when does a joke become a dad joke?
And he's like, when?
And I said, when it becomes apparent.
And like, only Joe laughed.
Come on, dude.
That was a classic moment.
Yeah.
I love those big corner spaces, bro.
Those spaces are hilarious.
The point back then and the point today is, look, Powell's not pivoting for for no one.
He's not he's not pivoting like it's not happening.
The only and it's not there's not a number on the S&P 500 that Powell would pivot at.
The number that he's looking at is unemployment.
And that's what and that's what we should look at.
And that's what you should look at.
Like you wanted to talk what could be any sort of bear case? No softening in U.S. labor, no softening in unemployment. trying to reduce the effect of the 10% tariffs or the negative 25% or the 25% auto tariffs and all,
you know, all that stuff. You don't want to, you don't want to see any evidence that enough
companies have been laying off employees that now you're getting neutral or negative job reports.
job reports. That's what you don't want.
That's what you don't want.
Yeah, I mean, I completely, I've been saying for a while now, like Fed, the Fed and Powell,
they don't give a damn what Trump has to say. Because Powell is one of the only people that
cannot be fired. You know, he, he does not care. And you have to understand the standpoint and the stance and
what he has taken since for the better part of 18 months is what has it been? It's been stick to the
plan. That's all they've done. And, you know, when Trump came in and he introduced all these tariffs. And you have to realize that they have these models
that they look at and that they put together
over months and months worth of data and time
and through meeting with one another.
And when you had all these unknown variables enter in
or come forth,
they then have to say, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, you know, and I think that we were in a great
place to start cutting rates before, but then these unknown variables, i.e. tariffs, and Trump
stepped into the equation, and they pumped the brakes, and they said, hold on, wait a minute,
we need to see what happens. And that's been their stance. And they've said that that's been
their rhetoric the whole time. Something that I don't want to see personally is a slowdown in the
services industry, which we started to see a little bit. But you really don't want to start
to see that, you know, slow down significantly, because that is what has been carrying growth in the economy since COVID. You know, it's been the
services sector. And that's something that I think you've really got to keep your eye on.
If we start to see that slow down significantly, that's kind of tipping the hat that, okay,
growth is, you know, probably coming in more than, you know, more than some may think.
And, you know, that is, you know, another discussion that we have at that time on what
happens.
But you kind of watch that, you know, job Matt's been saying for a long time, talking
about for a long time is, you know, you don't want to see jobs, you know, job, uh, Matt's been saying for a long time or talking about for a long time is, you know, you don't want to see jobs, uh, you know, unemployment take up and
you at the same time, like what I genuinely, um, don't want to see or what, what I don't want to
hear is I want Trump to shut his fucking mouth, excuse my language. Um, you you know there's obviously he has a um idea um in his head of
what he wants and that's very apparent and you have people around him that are clearly coming
to the table and being like hey you need to you know dial it back a little bit. And that's probably what he's been getting over the last two weeks
is the CEOs of the Mag 7 and, you know, the largest players in the world,
probably Larry Fink, are coming to him being like,
hey, you need to fix this.
Well, it's not just that.
It's also that behind the scenes, look, it's been a couple weeks now.
You know that these countries are all talking to each other
and to the Trump administration.
And behind the scenes, his administration
have probably been getting the word that,
no, China, we're not going to capitulate.
Like, we'll take some pain.
Are you willing to too? And Europe,
we saw Europe's initial response was, all right, fine. You're going to put tariffs on us. We're going to put 25% tariffs on you. There you go. That's our opening salvo.
Yeah, but Europe's the least resistant.
Yeah, but that they're willing to just go there.
And whether we think that Europe could or couldn't outlast the U.S., the Trump administration's response was like, oh, okay, okay, okay, just kidding.
We will remove the tariffs.
And then Europe paused their tariffs too. So again, I come back to in six months,
there's a really good chance that both US and China
will be back to status quo, square one,
no tariffs on either of each other.
And we'll all be wondering, what was it all for?
maybe it's uh hot air rises right maybe that's why man but uh i want to thank you guys all
so much for tuning in to today's stream it is now coming across that closing time at 6 p.m est you guys
know that uh you know over the last couple of weeks since we bottomed out i've been trying to
make these spaces as efficient as possible to be respectful of everybody's time here to be
respectful of you guys that are tuning in live in the audience and respectful for those that are
listening to the replay right
we've been streaming for you know about an hour and 15 minutes ish right that's how long that
these shows usually go on for but i want to thank you all so much for tuning in i want to thank uh
matt want to thank prometheus want to thank michael i also want to thank i don't know zillion i think
that was his name who was also uh up here i want to thank you all don't know, Zillion, I think that was his name, who was also up here.
I want to thank you all so much for coming on today's show and talking shop with me.
Shout out to you guys in the audience once again.
And in case you guys are new, even though I don't really see any new people here,
and this is typically like the numbers that we get during times of low engagement and when the market isn't at new highs, we typically have like 300 ish 400 ish people here kind of like on YouTube, right?
But just in case you guys are new here and you've enjoyed the stream over the last hour plus we are because Bitcoin
We produce multiple daily live streams for you guys throughout the week and we have a show for everyone guys
If you guys throughout the week. And we have a show for everyone, guys.
If you guys are into visual content, you know, technical analysis charts, stuff like that, we do have a YouTube show for you guys.
It is our morning show.
It's hosted at 11 a.m. to 11.15 a.m. Eastern Time.
That's our usual start time between those ranges.
And the show is hosted by us here at BB.
It's usually the guys from the team. Sometimes I go on there maybe like a handful of times every
quarter. But I think I was on there
right as we were finishing
our last leg down. Maybe I'll come back on there
soon when we like when I feel like we're about to go to 100k or something like
that but we have a show for you guys at 11 a.m. EST or on our YouTube show and
then later on that afternoon we have market talk hosted by me Wabi show start
time is usually between 420 to 4 4.40 p.m. EST.
And the show is probably more of like an audio version, right,
where I'm joined by the same set of speakers that are all enthusiastic about all things markets,
whether it's TradFi, whether it's crypto.
If it has a ticker, we talk about it.
If it's trending, we talk about it.
I try to make these shows as non-biased as possible
and try to give you guys as much alpha
and as much actionable things to do, right?
On this show the last couple of weeks,
we've talked about Farcoin hitting over a dollar.
We've talked about Sol bottoming out
and a few other things as well, right? So
Feel free to tell a friend to tell a friend about us here at because Bitcoin once again
We have multiple shows that are hosted throughout the week
So if you guys enjoyed the content feel free to follow that giant yellow square
That says because Bitcoin comm with the yellow check mark and also feel free to follow everybody up here on the panel spaces are
recorded as always i'll be back but we'll be back tomorrow uh bright and early on youtube at 11 am
est then of course later on that day on spaces so whether you've been tuning into these shows over
the last couple of years since uh the very beginning or whether you've been tuning into these shows over the last couple of years since the very beginning or whether you've been tuning in over the last couple of weeks months
or even days I want to thank you all so much for the constant support whether
you like us don't like us love us or hate us I want to thank you all so much
for participating in any fashion right so quite a great stream lovely price action across the board so
without further ado y'all I'm gonna go ahead and
eat some skirt steak
some jasmine rice
with
What's um with some beans?
And I'm gonna go train. I'm gonna go train upper body
so Later guys that I'm going to go train. I'm going to go train upper body.
So, later, guys.
Peace out.
I'm going to go ahead and play the outro song now.
I'm going to go ahead and play an outro song for you guys.
One second, y'all.
One sec.
I'm trying to find out what would be
an appropriate outro.
Something nice.
Something cool.
Alright.
Okay. I got it now Take that place, one time, get your car, enter the car, press it up, have a new magic. I'm going to go to the next one. It's so hard to stop being a possible Please Please Please Please
Please
Please
Please
Please
Please
