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Market Talk- BTC crashes to 62k!? It’s over!? 58k incoming!?
Recorded: Feb. 5, 2026 Duration: 3:02:43Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Oh Hey And he's a cheer. And just a doubt.
Oh, just a doubt.
Just a good world, my children.
So it's in my peace.
And in my peace.
From time to follow me.
Soutrushmangus, Anasamus
Settled is all new in peace
Onurata, Espelata
Injimakwe, Mijeris It's y Oh The Oh Oh, God. The End Oh Oh, man.
Guys, good afternoon.
This market, I tell you.
I wish I could say I hope everyone's doing okay,
but there are a lot of people in pain today.
Let me tell you what, man.
This is a Tommy market, man.
He's no longer Sullivan.
This is a Tommy market.
I see him in the audience.
I sent him an invite to speak.
Man, well, I'm going to say it anyways.
I hope you guys are doing okay out there, truthfully.
I hope you guys are taking care of yourselves.
Welcome back to Market Talk, brought to you by BB.
My name's Wabi, and we're probably going to have a bit of a longer stream today
because there is a ton to talk about you now have the triple q's
about to confirm um a longer time frame breakdown similar to what we saw last year in q1 we've been
discussing this on the show over the last few sessions on here on spaces where we started to
see crypto weakness and then we saw equities distribute.
We were discussing hood over the last few spaces, comparing it to Solana.
And I would even dare as far as to say that you can even compare hood to something like an MSTR,
where MSTR was like the golden child stock for the crypto market, and HUD was the golden child stock for the equity market.
And you now have Robinhood losing a multi-quarter value range.
And honestly, like, you look at Solana as well.
We were comparing Solana and HUD as well, where as far as tokens,
Solana was the darling baby for the crypto market if you want to talk
Assets specific to the market that you play in stocks and equities and
Solana just no signs of life at all
Nothing on chain is trending outside of a few
On-chain is trending outside of a few tokens on-chain that are just ranging.
And I think that's to be expected.
Some on-chain tokens at some point, they just don't care about the broader market and they just stay floored out.
Ranging in a 30% to 50% range.
But you also have Ethereum threatening to retest something like $1,400 at this point.
You now have Bitcoin accepting back into the multi-quarter range that we were in in 2024.
We're basically retracing multiple years of price action.
And Solana has effectively erased 2025 and 2024 we have not seen these levels on soul since
q4 of 2023 and you know you look at things like the rsi um for something like salon i think it's
on the weekly we're now approaching similar levels to what we saw as it was bottoming, mind you, as it was bottoming out towards $8.
We also have the monthly RSI on BTC approaching some Q4 2022 levels.
And I hope that's the case.
I hope this is just running back the 2025 playbook i'm sure most of you would rather have that happen where the market bottoms out in
a few weeks instead of being tortured in a multi-quarter downtrend where say we bounce
from 62k 63k wherever it is that we're trading exactly right now i don't think you know what a
bad day is son let's just say what i said i don't think you know what a bad day is yeah and there's uh
there's there's a lot of dave goggins memes and denzel washington memes and there's also some uh
psyop anime videos um from cz and all that stuff it's it's actually pretty funny man and this all
started when binance jr came out cz came out, you know what, it's time to liquidate the kids.
And that thing came out almost exactly right when we formed that shoulder at $116K.
And we are now trading below levels where Evan was saying, hey, i think this might be a bid solana's trading
under 80 bucks dude solana's trading under 80 dollars and well to be fair i said 75 to 80 but
it'll probably lose that to me and that that is gnarly man i remember getting on a call with
edward and he's like man if solana loses 140 like it's just
cooked like there's there's no air at all um all the way up until like 40 bucks which is
essentially the the high that solana hit multiple times uh between january of 23 to july of 23 to July of 23. And, man, I'm not sure what's going to go on with Solana,
but I'll say this.
If you're going to bet not on degeneracy,
but just, like, on-chain volume,
and you see what Vitalik said about L2s, right?
So basically throwing base under the bus.
Arbitrum, if anyone even uses that.
Optimism, God forbid anyone still bridges there as well.
It's like a graveyard.
Then Solana's still probably going to be it.
Maybe Monad.
But, I mean, I've already, I think most of us have kind of just given up on that chain.
And you have half of the team already leaving.
You also have some crypto VCs starting to quit.
A lot of people from Paradigm have crashed out over the last few weeks and have quit the team.
I think Kyle Samani from Multicoin also ventured out of crypto.
You're seeing right now in the industry, you're seeing right in front of us as price grinds down,
you're seeing some capitulation, which usually starts with the VCs.
And we saw that shortly after Luna went to zero.
And then there was just a few of us arguing on spaces, attacking each other on the timeline.
And maybe that's where we're going, right?
Where perhaps this breakdown, I mean, at this point point we're probably going to see sub 60k
and you look at the miners right now we were talking about miners yesterday we were like hey
is xyz ticker a bid and uh now they're down almost 20 again on the day um and until hood
finds a bottom none of these small caps find a bottom um I'm confident in saying that, but I still think the prospect of Hood outperforming Solana
is probably going to be it.
If any of you have played on-chain on Solana
over these last two months,
you'll know that on-chain desperately needs a cleansing,
and the best way to do that is to,
honestly, you're going to have to destroy solana um
yeah not not not luna style but like people are gonna have to call it dead which right now it's
just people trying to catch a falling knife and um yeah i'm not sure who's gonna be the main
character for solana at this point i i really don't. But it's just really difficult to see on-chain just having any sort of breadth if it's not going to be on Sol.
Because base is just...
Man, I think something on base just has fundamentally changed with what we saw with these AI tokens.
They tried to run back Solana on-chain on base like two weeks ago with those with those
clod bots and the other one what was it moltbook and all that stuff and then those tickers got
vamped by beta tickers and it's like man this is a lot of people are trying to destroy base now
and uh it's basically just pvp'ing everything so i mean if you think hood is going to be bottomed
out why not just get leaps instead of buying spot soul at least that's what i say to myself um at least that's what i'm
thinking man i'd rather buy some calls on hood than buy solana at like 40 bucks to be honest
with you um because when you think it's when you think it's bottomed out that's the thing about
solana like when when the market confirms higher time frame bear structure like dude we
lost monthly trend on on bitcoin that's that i think that's the difference between now and q1
of 2025 is that we've officially lost monthly trends we've lost quarterly trends effectively
if you really want to be technical this is like losing 8 000 um on uh on bitcoin in 2018 that's that's
effectively it and so you have the possibility of bouncing from say 58 to 62k bouncing from these All the way back to call it, I don't know, 75 or 75 at least or as high as like 84.
That was the lower end of the range that we were at in December.
You actually have that possibility.
But then you just stay there and grind bear's chop for a few weeks,
and then you have that next leg down, similar to what we saw after Luna went to zero.
We crashed all the way to 24, 25K.
We bounced all the way to 33, and then within a week, we were at 17.
We bounced.
It was really gnarly man we bounced like 22 revisited
18 19 after that cpi reading had one more bounce to 25 and then did nothing at all until ftx went
to zero same thing with 2018 um before we hit 3k we did nothing for a few months so that's the characteristics of bear markets
in crypto usually before that next leg down it's kind of a nothing sideways market for a few weeks
if not months and then the market gets exciting but before i pass it on to the other speakers i'll
just say this um you know there's this there's this speculation on the timeline where like hey
after we bought them out we're probably not going to do nothing for a long time and that's never
happened in crypto uh after ftx within weeks we had a bunch of ai names come out btc ripped within like six to seven weeks uh of bottoming at 15.4 on
thanksgiving weekends in 2018 within months we we went all the way to 14k ether rallied from 80 to
400 bucks and mind you in 2022 you had every single person that contributed to the bull market go to zero three ac doquan celsius block fi
that was worse that was a hell of a lot worse right so i don't think this time is going to be
worse than 2022 it's just cz trying to look with it everyone or just angry people that are infuriated with CZ. And I think the worst thing that you can
allow a bear market to do is say that this market is never going to get a bit again. And then you,
and then you're just a sideline cock because there's many pains in the crypto market, right?
There's the pain of buying the top, the pain of buying a downtrend,
and then whatever, you're in drawdown for a few months,
but you eventually break even.
But the worst pain of them all is being sidelined
and experiencing the pump and waiting for a pullback.
Wabi, the equivalent to that is the basement-dwelling neckbeards
where they haven't taken a shower in
so long. They get used to smelling their own filth. And that's the equivalent to people just sitting
in the bear market, getting used to the stink of it and not really understanding how you then
allocate to positions when you do see structural bottoms form it's the
exact same thing they're just the neckbeard basement dollars of the market and they'll sit
in their own filth and they'll sit and smell and smell and smell until somebody enough people come
along and say hey you freaking stink dude yeah yeah i would i would agree man and i think hyper
liquid is probably bottoms bro i'll maybe i don't want to jinx it i i really don't because
like i remember we were seeing some strength i don't want to jinx it but like cosmos atom tokens
right dude they were looking fantastic in q1 of 2022 um phantom was still hitting all-time highs in q1 of 2022 as well like phantom i think made like a
like a double top or something like that and then andre cronji just came out in like march or april
and just wrote a massive foot article but anyways nfts as well you had ape token go to billions
shortly before luna um so there is a possibility hype can just be following that but
i mean if you think hype is going a couple hundred bucks and you think hype is like
that fourth token where it's btc eth soul and hype is that fourth token that you can bid over a
longer time frame maybe right but there's always that complacency where it's like hey i don't mind sitting in drawdown and
then whatever hype goes down 30 40 percent and then new tokens come out and you're just
not going to participate because most of your capital is in a position that you think is going
to rip along with the rest of the market you want to know what the nft equivalent of the cycle is
lobby i would say it's pump fund yeah pump funds gonna go to zero are you you think so
yeah yeah yeah it's gonna go to hell yes it is how they have like a billion dollars
no no no no it doesn't matter i mean it's like they can have as much money as they as they want
it's it's the market uh reflexivity to losing money, brother.
That's what we have to take into account.
If people lose enough money on something or they have a bad enough experience doing anything in life, they will never, ever, ever touch it again.
Children are a fantastic experience with it,
they will oftentimes go in their entire lives with disliking whatever food item that is.
It's the exact same thing with adults. It's the exact same thing.
Dang. Well, I guess maybe Monad is a buy. Maybe. Perhaps.
I think it might be because nobody had a bad experience with
it nobody had any opportunity to use it to operate in their ecosystem to i mean there
were some people that bought the like ico the pre-launch sale but i mean majority of like the
space like it didn't have like this huge euphoric like
run you know that a lot of these other chains did i mean that might be a fantastic buy
perhaps we'll see we'll see man if if the main guy keone leaves like i'm just gonna give up bro
like that's that's just that's the only thing man that like
i worry about like the super long post and all that stuff but maybe it's an aptos right um aptos
came out and then ftx happened and out of that bottom aptos was a huge top performer so maybe
that's like something that monad can do you just need my my thesis is like you need a wave of
unsophisticated buyers that really have no clue what's going on from another sector of the market
whether it's people that just buy majors and don't know about like what's going on on chain and you
still have that cohort of people that exist mainly like crypto youtube people um or people from trad fi
where they're like oh damn like isn't this one of paradigms projects that they invested in isn't
this one of coinbase ventures as projects and it's down what is it 60 70 whenever monad bottoms
from the ico price let me let me go ahead and take a gamble, right?
That would be, that's kind of my thesis.
Unsophisticated buyers from a different sector of the market
that don't know about on-chain
or just a completely different market in general,
specifically beta and TradFi,
like AI and all that stuff right and and i mentioned it before
like people that um that were in sandisk right i i think that is an excellent an excellent
barometer of the kind of people that can come into the market people that played sandisk um even people that played
something like an amd right though like the the chips people like the chips class right
kind of like how you had btc beta people that played miners last cycle they came on and played
on chain many people that were btc and btc beta exclusive last cycle they're like all right
hey block fine all these other people don't exist anymore solana is trading at 15 20 bucks let me go
ahead and buy some right they bought puppets bro like puppets yeah i mean yeah ballistic yeah yeah
many many btc laser-eyed people made the transition and played beta this cycle, and I don't think this time is going to be any different.
But I'm going to go ahead and stop yapping, guys,
and give it on over to the other speakers.
We have Naka, Prometheus, Evan, Afro up here.
We're going to have some of our other speakers come in
during the second half of the show, as we always do.
The shows have been pretty fire lately.
Finally, after like two months or so of going live
at around 3 30 we finally have like our old audience back um at least i think it's our
old audience back but maybe it's like the new followers we picked up so thank god for that man
thank god for that um but either way guys we're gonna go ahead and get rolling once again welcome
back to market talk brought to you by bb my name's wabi and're going to go ahead and get rolling. Once again, welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by BB.
My name's Wabi, and we're going to go ahead and start cooking.
But before we do that, guys, before I pass it on over to the other gentlemen and kind of get their thoughts and takes on the market,
as the market is actually showing some insane volatility, space best way to do that guys is by clicking the
spaces tab right below your uh your your app and then once you guys do that right above our profile
pictures you'll see up on the nest a little link that says x.com slash i slash spaces you guys can
go ahead and click that link smash the like button hit the retweet button
let's get some people in here if once you guys do that it does do a number of things as i said
brings more eyes and ears to the show brings more awareness of the brand and who knows maybe you get
some of your favorite content creators some of your favorite traders up here on the show uh feel
free to tag anyone that you want to see on the show by the way in the little chat box below if you have any questions also feel free to type them in the chat box below if you want to come up
and talk also feel free to request uh up to speak i usually do that on fridays usually i like to
bring up some people from the audience that uh have listened to market talk before and all that
stuff but given today's volatility given today's price action specific because it's not like someone went under you have
You have someone liquidating billions. Maybe we do but we don't know it yet
Maybe some 10 10 post 10 10 stuff is
Arising to the surface and someone's actually just clearing their whole book who knows right?
But we do have all coins bleeding a lot more against bitcoin today which is honestly a concern
and i there's a possibility that last year's bear market was a fugazi and this is like the real
thing um but the good thing is that maybe we have the usual summer rally, right? Over the last, like, 10 years, we usually have a huge summer rally,
whether it's a bull market or a bear market and whatever.
Sometimes you have to step away and really not do anything for a few months
if you're along only, right?
But either way, we're going to go ahead and get started.
I'm going to pass it on over to Naka first because you know that's just that's just
entertainment so naka go ahead and say your catchphrases and your in your accent bro go ahead
that's pretty erotic
yo evan you gotta relax with the voice today brother
you gotta relax man naka come on man speak naka boom like that in a microsecond well good evening my little dgens how's the
bull market treating you i mean it's kind of like look it's kind of like everyone's sort of
you gotta say it the right way man you have to say you have to say good evening my little dgen
good evening good evening my little dgens How is the bull market treating you all?
It's going fantastic, man.
Fantastic. Everyone's feeling nice and liquidated.
Yeah, the sailor threw another yard at BTC last week and it's down by 20 grand, which is...
Wow, honestly.
I mean, to be honest,
the violence of this has even surprised me.
I didn't think it was going to be this violent.
But I guess maybe from cycle to cycle,
people start learning,
the market becomes twitchy,
and once the selling starts,
people really do give up the hopium.
I think... I'm not sure how this plays plays out but one way i can see it playing out is we basically go straight down to 40k and then we
bounce a lot people think that was the bottom v bottom calls etc and then we dump again and then
just mess people around a bit um and then make like make like a, a nice new low go into the thirties,
you know, I mean, that's one way it could play out. It seems like that would be sort of max pain,
uh, as far as I can see, but, uh, yeah, I mean, it's all fucked. And the, you know, the, the other
thing is like Ethereum, uh, again, you know, just a big disappointment. This cycle has made a double
top. Um, if it breaks down from that macro double top, the target technically is in the
hundreds, not in the thousands.
Um, Solana distributed broke down below a hundred.
The target for that breakdown is probably about 20.
Like it's not good.
And I think crypto kind of deserves it, right?
Because we had a whole cycle with very little innovation.
And there is actually innovation happening now with these sort of AI agents meta.
But it came too late.
Everyone bid all of the real world assets for Garzi, which is basically a load of nonsense.
You don't need crypto for real world assets, or at least you don't need decentralized blockchains you can do it with centralized uh digital ledgers at the best so
basically it's been a very disappointing cycle i think the one man who i want to kind of blame
for this cycle is actually vitalik because basically if if vitalik hadn't fucked around with the whole L2 thing between 2022 and 2025, we could have had gas on Ethereum going up.
If you look at the max gas chart on Ethereum, it's been flat for years, which means that there hasn't really been any innovation.
Everything went to Solana.
People started trading shit coins, nobody built anything.
Um, and so, you know, I mean, it's been like a bounce, right?
There's always traders.
There's always people who are prepared to go long and this is kind of, you know,
kind of the way that ends.
I mean, it would have ended anyway.
It just would have gone higher
yeah yeah i understand there was very minimal activity on east
i think the highest activity we saw in east was like q2 of 23 when pepe went ballistic out of nowhere where it went yeah the problem is the problem is if it's like pepe
it's like people bidding mean coins right like we're not going to be a hundred billion dollar
or is there a hundred trillion dollar asset class on like the back of meme coins right like you know
we've we've reached the cap of where you can get from ponzi's basically or we've reached like maybe not the absolute cap but we've we've reached
like the the peak of the sort of we've sort of reached the knee in the curve of growth rate if
you like it's the saturation it's the saturation point of ponzi's yes bitcoin can make a new high in 2029, but it would probably be a marginal new high.
2029, Naka, come on.
Well, that's just straightforward, you know, four-year projection from...
2029, that's like saying the S&P and the Qs aren't going to make an all-time high for another two years.
No way. Come on, Naka.
What's your reasoning? What's your reasoning and what's your reasoning what's your reasoning what's your invalid it's
four years right i mean you know you had the high you know the high was in like 2021 and then the
next high was in 25 26 and so you know that's a difference of four if you project that forwards
you get to 2029 that would be the top and it would probably be a fairly marginal high maybe 160 180k something like
that um unless you know somebody just depends on monetary conditions i mean but yeah i mean
to knock his point based off where we're headed it's like time projections right price predictions
right now if they start printing a fuck ton or excuse me a ton i mean sure we can talk like 250 300k bitcoin but i mean you just literally wiped
out like david's been talking about trillions of dollars from this asset class and people are poor
right it's going to take a multi-year reaccumulation period before we can even
talk about a bull market in my opinion yeah i mean it depends how bad this gets right because like you guys you guys don't think that the same can happen
Like recently where we hit 15 K and within 14 months we go back to the highs
Like
35 K of last cycle, I think we can have again
I mean, I think I think I think this cycle i think this cycle we've just finished
was quite a left translated cycle because we actually pumped up very quickly and then spent
a very long time distributing whereas the cycle before that was a bit more right translated um
translated. Um, so maybe we get another right translated cycle, you know, the sort of 2026 to
2029 or 2026 to 2030 cycle might actually be right translated. So we basically bottom sometime this
year, we chop around, we have a little mini echo bubble in 2027, dump it back down again in 2028 fuck everyone over for a couple of
years make people believe it's all dead and then we actually managed to make a new all-time high
in late 2028 that's just one way it could go but it's a sort of reasonable i think a reasonable
prediction based upon past uh experiences are you are you bidding Monad Naka at like half a penny?
I mean, I'm actually,
I was actually researching the Monad technology sort of stack recently.
I was asking some AIs about it and basically I'm very bullish on the Monad
technology, right?
I'm just not particularly bullish on the token.
Um, because like, it's got so much,
there's like so much cell pressure left on the Mon. Um, because like, it's got so much,
there's like so much cell pressure left on the monad token. Right. I mean, I don't know how soon that cell pressure is. I didn't look into that, but like,
I think it's only got 10% of its, uh, of its mark of its, uh, uh,
full market cap is actually floating on the market. So basically it's like,
you know, something like 2 billion FDV with 200 million market cap or something.
Um, but the tech is great.
The tech is really good.
The thing is what I think is going to happen.
Do you guys know what, what Sherlocking means when you Sherlock something is basically when you have like a, like a platform and somebody builds a good app for that, for that platform.
And the developers of the platform are like, wow, this app is great.
We're just going to steal all the IP and build it into the platform itself.
And this sort of happened with like a, an app for, I think it was iOS called
Sherlock or was it called watch Watson?
I can't remember which way it was, but basically Apple just stole the
technology from this app, built it into the OS and it just completely dumped that
app, even though it was like really good.
And I worry that Vitalik is basically in the process of doing this to Monad, right? He'll be like,
oh, that's nice. Thanks for the tech guys. I'm just going to put that into the Ethereum L1.
And that's how we're going to scale the L1. Cause right now, you know, Ethereum, as I said before,
only has about, it has about 30 TPS that it can actually do. Well, it could probably do a bit more, probably like 50 or something.
But at the moment, it's getting about 25 to 30 TPS.
Monad can get like 10,000, but under realistic load, maybe 2,000.
Solana does like 8,000 or something.
So basically, if you just rebuild Ethereum with the Monad tech,
you can get up to like a thousand TPS probably.
Right.
And, you know, if you're going from like 20 to like a thousand, that's a huge difference
in terms of the kind of gaps that can actually be built on top of that.
So there's a very big, um, temptation, I think for Ethereum to just basically steal the whole
Monad tech stack
because monad is evm right it's an evm compatible chain right it has the same interface same api for
the developers same programming language all of that stuff's the same it's just it has a more
efficient uh you know scheduler it's got like multi-threaded um uh execution and a bunch of
other tricks that basically really speed up the execution side.
And Vitalik's most recent technical post was about, you know, how you can like change, uh,
the EVM so that, uh, you get these like temporary, uh, temporary state operations.
So basically the Ethereum state growth will be much smaller. Which basically what that means is that's the last barrier to basically implementing Monad,
but on Ethereum, right?
So I do kind of worry that it's going to become a victim of its own success,
and all of that research and development they've done,
all of that technology is just going to get zoinked by Ethereum,
and I'd be like, oh, look, Ethereum's 1,000 TPS,
and then what the fuck are're gonna do with monad
Right because that ethereum is gonna have the technology and it's gonna have the reputation and the existing
TVL and all of that stuff. So, you know
Thanks, right like it's over for monad in that case. Uh, so it could be
One of these weird cases. They come up a lot in crypto where sort of like better is worse and worse is better
Right, like people probably made a lot more money on cardano which is completely retarded right like
from a technical point of view you know cardano is is is a complete disaster right but people made a
lot of money on it because you know it has a niche as being like the retard chain right which is good
because it means a lot of stupid people will go and buy it.
I I've, I've spoken to a lot of relatively dumb people who were like, well,
I miss Bitcoin and I missed the Ethereum, but have you heard of this thing called
Cardano it's like faster than Ethereum, man, it's going to be the new big thing.
And like so many people bought into that and just got completely rinse.
Yeah.
Complete disaster.
So I, I can't, I'm kind of very bullish on the monad tech, but I think like the trade
there is you wait until like a bit mine basically pukes and whatever Ethereum is after bit mine
has puked is where you buy ETH and hope that Vitalik actually sends the chain to a thousand
TPS and
people actually start building on it. And then it's plausible that it goes to like 20,000 or
something. I mean, that would be a good trade. If you can write Ethereum from like 500 to 20,000,
that's pretty decent. You think ETH is going to break the June 2022 low market?
Um, I mean, it depends what the rest of the market does but if you and it also depends on
what macro does i mean this could be we could be at the bottom right now it's possible but like
you know if you just look at the chart if you assume that this is a normal bear market you
assume that bitcoin has another 50 to drop well you know ethereum is probably going to drop like
another 50 um and then maybe you know
BitMine like pukes
that's going to send it lower
we could get into the three digits
I think I mean you know
if it goes below
1000 it probably wants
to go for like 500
or something in my opinion
I'll do you one better
if we take out the april low we
go to triple digits without a doubt yeah could be i mean i mean that is that is sort of that is sort
of where it naturally i mean where do you go from that if you take out that you know that what was
it 1400 or something like triple digits seems like the the logical place to be next
evan what are your thoughts man welcome bro yeah yeah it was great to talk to all you guys um man
i i'll start with like bitcoin let's just start with the basics here i mean um you you didn't
even react much at all to the 200 weekly ema at 68K. So I guess, you know, good and bad, good that we're
ripping the bandaid off, bad that, you know, in terms of people wanting us to bounce soon,
bad in terms of that. We're at like 62, 63K right now. There's not a ton where we are right now.
You're starting to hit the major area that that kind of place
in between like 68K all the way down to like 58K.
So I would argue in all likelihood, and then you're also very, yeah, you're approaching
your 200 weekly SMA at 58K.
So in all likelihood, you should see a local bottom probably by Sunday, maybe Monday.
I would assume you got to see
a green week at some point it's probably going to be next week i mean if you were to blindly long
like monday morning like you're probably gonna be in the green at some point in a few weeks or
something um you know you could rally back up to i could argue argue, you know, 70K, 68K, probably above that, maybe mid-70s before coming down farther.
Now, Iron's down like 15% post earnings.
My goodness, bro.
AI is posted, man.
Dude, it retraced back to its December low.
That's normal, bro.
Palantir's been down.
Yeah, that's not a surprise, man, in my opinion.
I think, and that's not you, you haven't even saw the AI.
Like, my guess is that.
You've been bearish on Palantir for like a month now, man.
Bro, I've been bearish on Palantir ever since Michael Burry became bearish on Palantir and then changed his mind two days later and closed down his hedge fund.
When Michael Burry doesn't take the trade trade then you know he's going to be
right but now in all seriousness ai in general ai super bowl coming up i do think the ai could
rally a little bit of a relief rally after the super bowl for i don't know a month or something
um similar to how crypto i think did if i'm i think if i'm not mistaken crypto did rally a bit
after the crypto super bowl in 2022. So you could see something similar.
Evan, what's the AI Super Bowl that you've been talking about?
I have no idea what that is.
There's the AI Super Bowl where there's a bunch of AI ads.
ChatGPT is going to have an ad.
Gemini is going to have an ad.
Oh, no.
You didn't know about that, bro?
No, I thought it was like a conference or something.
No. Like they're actually going gonna have like super bowl commercials because if that's the case then we're probably going to be bracing for a 1997
type of crash to be honest or a 2022 crash equivalent to kind of what crypto did yeah um
so yeah no 100 i think i think that means things will come down. They can rally shortly after that, though,
because usually when you get stuff like that when things are already down a bit,
usually you do get a dead cat bounce or something shortly after.
So you could rally for a month.
What I want to mention, too, what's really interesting,
and the thing, too, that I would say is where we are,
it's similar to where this WIC that we're seeing. If you look at the weekly, for, that I would say is like where we are, it's similar to where you like this wick that we're seeing.
If you look at like the weekly, for example, on Bitcoin, like this wick we're seeing downward, it's kind of similar to the wick you saw downward in the beginning of May of 22.
And then you kind of got a relief a bit there now.
And then you went down a lower after.
But why is that significant? That's significant because that wick down in May of 22 was where micro strategy bottomed.
It bottomed a hell of a lot earlier than Bitcoin and quite a bit earlier and about a month earlier than Ethereum as well.
So if history can repeat, and that's a big if, that's a giant if.
I'm not, you know, I would ask after I'm finished talking, I would ask your guys' opinion on if MicroStrategy is going to go belly up or not.
But if history can repeat, you are getting damn close to the bottom on MicroStrategy.
You're almost around $100.
You're 80% down.
Like, that's the only thing.
High reward, not a ton of risk.
Well, a ton of risk if it goes to zero but pretty you know it's a good
gamble i'll say getting in there between you know 80 to 100 bucks if that goes below 80 i don't think
i want it you know what i mean that's where i'd put my stop loss like high 70s but that could be
the bottom relatively soon like that's the only thing crypto related that's starting to kind of
look a little bit
attractive to me like nothing else looks attractive yet like i mean long term sure like bitcoin at low
60ks like you know i think you know you're probably going to make a new all-time high by the end of
the decade even if you don't make a new all-time high you're probably going to at least get it to
100k and i'm being like i'm saying like worst case scenario stuff like there's a good shot of getting
up to at least 150 K by the end of this
decade, 200 K, you know, those kinds of numbers.
But yeah, that's starting to look a bit more attractive.
ETH versus Bitcoin.
I, you could argue Bitcoin dominance is actually down a little bit.
So it's, it's kind of showing that all coins are kind of following monetary
policy.
Does that mean you should ape in all coins?
No, absolutely not.
Because just because they outperformed Bitcoin
by a tiny bit, some of them,
doesn't mean that they're going to outperform
the US dollar for many months.
But it shows that they are respecting monetary policy
after you ended QT.
And it's good for Ethereum.
And I would argue on our next bounce,
which probably will be anywhere from now until like 58K, I would argue on our next bounce, which probably will be, you know, anywhere from
now until like 58K, I would argue for Bitcoin, that ETH will probably start to outperform it a
bit on this relief rally upward, you know. And that could be, it could be a green kind of February,
maybe, but not, maybe not overall, but green in the sense that you see the relief rally over the next few weeks.
And then March, April, you come back to reality a bit.
And then I think as you get into March, April, May, those areas, then Bitcoin becomes very attractive.
Assuming you drop down to 50K, maybe below 50K.
I mean, the 35, 40K range, I wouldn't ruled out completely, but I do think the inception of
the ETF has a lot of support at that 48 K place. And I do think a lot of people would buy it up
there, but maybe I'm wrong. We'll see what the hell ends up happening. Um, but you know, I mean,
the thing too, I want to mention here is I converted all my ETH and all my all coins that
I pretty much was on the
red on probably back at the end of October into a lot of it was into Berkshire Hathaway was into
gold and silver. And I'm looking at my Berkshire Hathaway versus Bitcoin chart, you know, since
then Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed Bitcoin by 90%. So I've, and Ethereum by over a hundred
percent. So I've essentially doubled my Ethereum holdings, um,
by doing that.
And I've kind of offset a lot of my like losses that I had in terms of
all coins,
just by that one trade over the last few months.
So that,
and you didn't need to do Berkshire Hathaway.
You could have did S and P 500 and you would have done very well as well,
basically the same,
you know,
situation.
So it kind of shows you,
you know,
even if you got screwed up in all coins like I did,
if you converted them to the right thing, you've doubled that. You've offset a lot of those losses
in terms of your Bitcoin evaluation, even in terms of your USD evaluation to a certain extent,
given that everything crashed so much since then. So there's ways to do it. There's ways to do it.
I mean, yeah, I mean, everything, you're in a bear market, man.
I mean, the things that look attractive, XLE, as I've talked about a lot, that looks pretty
attractive for energy.
Nobody's getting rich off of that, but I think it'll keep going up.
Um, Berkshire Hathaway probably will outperform the S&P 500 NASDAQ for some months, um, overall
in 2026 and all likelihood, I think that gold and and silver i'd rather buy the s&p 500 or
just you know like safer equity stuff than gold and silver right now um silver versus bitcoin i'd
probably rather buy bitcoin gold versus bitcoin that's kind of tough i think gold will probably
continue to outperform bitcoin for some months but you know it's about preserving your capital
right now i would say for people last thing I'll say here, for people debating on selling Bitcoin at 63K, I mean, not trying to like be mean or like put anyone down.
But if you didn't have the knowledge or experience to have an idea of selling Bitcoin, you know, much higher than 63K, you're probably not going to have the knowledge or experience or emotional temperament to buy in at the right level downward.
emotional temperament to buy in at the right level downward like the technique there I mean
at this point like you might as well kind of hodl to a certain extent if you're gonna freaking sell
and this is for any trade you're gonna make in life anything you're gonna make life you need a
damn strategy I would say 90% of people have no strategy at all they're literally throwing darts
at a board and that's why that example of a monkey throwing darts at a board normally beats them because there's just no strategy. But if you
have a strategy, you know, when am I, if I sell Bitcoin now, what am I going to convert it to?
When am I going to convert back to Bitcoin? What am I looking for? You know, that's a good strategy.
That makes sense. And you got to follow that. But if you don't have that and you're just,
you know, emotionally hitting the sell button right now, like you're like you're probably just going to dig yourself in a deeper hole.
You need to know what you're doing.
You need a strategy.
So, yeah.
Afro, what's going on, man?
What are your thoughts?
I haven't spoken to you in a couple of weeks, bro.
What you doing, Mr. Wobby?
How are you, sir?
I'm doing great, man.
What are your thoughts on ETH, man?
Dude, I sold all my that's your that's your baby
all my eath that's your baby i threw the baby out with the bath water after we you know we plunged
below 36 uh 3600 i mean i am i'm an eath maxi but you know i'm also a money maxi right so
you know um smarter guys than than me were posting about you know how it's basically down only from
here and um i had heart to hearts with some some really good traders and long-term investors that
I know who've been in ETH for quite a while.
And they're like, this is probably a good time to just walk away.
And I think I'd mentioned here before plenty of times, the peace of mind was what I was
looking for.
And that's what I did.
Honestly, I think,
I think Naka had a lot of really,
really good points.
And to add to what he was saying,
I watched a really good video.
Was that,
was that one dude who like shorted ETH,
like at the top and made like a million bucks,
the Asian guy,
like Taka something or whatever the hell his name is.
He has a YouTube channel and he has a video on why he's shorting eath again
so that guy just made a whole bunch of money again one and two um he brought some great points
about how the the basically the the crux of his position was eath tech is good but the problem is
it's run really shittily and the tokenomics suck.
So I think Naka was mentioning something like, hey, if they can redo their tech stack or whatever
to go around something like Monad, it might actually do really well
and they can actually scale and people want to build there.
The whole L2 thing that happened a couple days ago was kind of lame.
And then on top of it, I know that everyone's got to sell at some point.
It just kind of looks bad when, you know,
the founder of ETH dumps, you know,
three million bucks on everybody casually
while it's going down.
It's bad optics.
But for right now, I mean, I'm hopeful for ETH,
but, you know, I'm going to start looking at...
Man, so bad optics, bro.
Vitalik just fuds his own ecosystem and sells when
selling pressure happens like he did in q1 and then just comes out wearing uh wearing a dirty
unicorn shirt with socks that have holes in them he's been wearing the same outfit since he was
like 20 you know that's why that's why he has to sell eath because he wants to buy some new socks you
see you know what he has to do man you know what vitalik should do this is how look look if anyone
from the eath foundation is hearing this or anyone from arbitrum or whatever vitalik should use his
proceeds right from selling eath number Number one, get a hair transplant.
Like, brother, you got to get a hair transplant.
And, yeah, and then go on some TRT, okay, take some tests,
maybe some Debel, and hire Lou Ferrigno as a personal trainer
and just get jacked.
And I promise you, man,ereum will skyrocket no that's
probably bearish man that's probably bearish for the price you want him to be the nerd right like
you don't want him to know the job dude the nerd is out bro vegan vegan woke leftism like that's
that's that we abandon that there are two problems with eth Number one problem is they didn't scale the L1, right?
Number one is Vitalik can't even have a proper conversation. You ask him a question, he's like...
Dude, he's like...
That's foolish. That's like, look at my quant. He's like from fucking Russia, you know?
Like, his grandmother still lives in a communist apartment in moscow. That's bullish
The problem is number one. They didn't scale their l1, right? Like a lot of people in the in the industry
You know, especially people who are just interested in price. They don't look at the fundamentals
But what is eeth selling? It's selling consensus, right now? They did improve their consensus
But the the space the number of you know transactions per second or per day
has been static from like 2021 until 2025 when everything else got better and number two they're
underfunded ethereum is actually way underfunded compared to their market cap okay yeah they have
like yeah i agree with that yeah they have a three they have like a half trillion dollar market cap, half a trillion, right?
That's a disgusting amount of money, but it's all locked up in the market cap for people to speculate on.
What they should actually have done is printed a bunch of new coins and established like a big treasury and then started like DCA selling coins and investing that money into making their blockchain actually work right now.
I know that the traders weren't like that, but that's what they actually did.
And they actually have kind of started that because they took about a hundred
million dollars that was leftover from the Dow hacker was maybe 200 million.
So not very much.
Right.
And they put that as stakes.
They staked $200 million of stolen ETH from the DAO hack.
And they're now taking the staking revenue from that stolen ETH and they're using that to fund the ecosystem.
It's very little. It's about $10 million a year or something. It's pathetic, right?
So they actually need to print more ETH, right? And use that to fund their ecosystem, right?
And, you know, they should have a thousand TPS and be decentralized
because back in 2020 or 2021,
the excuse was if you wanted a thousand TPS,
you had to be centralized.
You had to have like one big computer in somebody's basement.
But as Monad is showing, that's no longer the case, right?
I've looked into this.
If you want to run a Monad node,
you don't need a supercomputer,
a normal high-spec
home computer with a normal residential gigabit fiber is enough to run a Monad node,
right? Plus or minus a little bit. So you could actually have people running ETH validating nodes
at home for about $2,000 in hardware costs, which is nothing when you consider you need 32 ETH to stake,
which is still like nearly $100,000. It's obviously falling now, but it's still a lot of money.
So you could have people, you know, you could basically upgrade Ethereum to have a thousand
TPS. And then all of the AI agent stuff that's happening on Solana with like Maltbook and Claude
code and all that stuff
that could all come onto ethereum and that is what would take ethereum to twenty thousand dollars
you're not going to get to twenty thousand dollars by having you know like an old t-shirt and holes
in your socks and no money to actually develop the product and that is what makes me bearish ETH right now Basically that
And just the ETH
The ETH foundation itself is just full of
Just fucking woke people that are grifting
And have been grifting for
You know
What
Six, seven years now
Six, seven
Yeah
In a way it's actually bullish for ETH
If it absolutely fucking like gets completely
destroyed like if if eth goes down to like 200 which i don't think that's going to happen but
i think that's like the worst case that's the point at which people will just start picking it
up if it actually goes there that would be a reason to kick out the woke grifters and and focus a hundred percent
on actually building the blockchain on actually increasing the tps up into the thousands
so that people can actually use it
after what are the targets that you have where you say to yourself i'm just gonna start buying
do you have a target i have a
target um momentum so i mean i think that that you had mentioned in the june 2022 bottom i'd
i'd start i definitely like i wouldn't like go all in there but i'd probably start passively dcaing
on eth again maybe around like 1400 1500 range so we're not really that far off to be 100% on the LG but um still uh I think that's
that's kind of where I would start but if we did uh if we did just break that 1500 I think
Prometheus was saying that before then you know we we're just going to go down a lot more so uh
I'd probably just nibble at nibble there for a little bit and the good thing is about bottoms
you have months to accumulate this you know what I mean So you don't have to go all in in one clip.
I'm glad, dude.
And then for Bitcoin, I see that, you know, obviously, if you're a four-year cycle guy, you're going to say, well, it's just the high from 2020, 2021 high.
You just buy around there.
Consequently, that's not a bad place to buy.
But there's also like a couple of trend lines that I was looking at with a buddy of mine they're his trend lines he was like 50 55.4 and like 43 like uh at the low
which would be insane uh if that that did happen but you know look at today right so um other than
that i i don't have anything other than stacking cash and really really looking into hyper liquid
so that
I can probably get more. I'm probably super late on it and that's fine, but I'd rather be in
something that has good tokenomics and actually makes money so I can make money versus something
like ETH the way it is right now. So I really hope they just get some new leadership and I'm
going to give Vitalik some slack because of what
he's been able to accomplish.
But I think he's a smart dude.
He just has a bunch of freaking grifters around him,
which is probably more than likely the case
around a lot of these people, one smart guy and just everyone
just mooching off of the opportunity.
But we'll see what they can cook up.
But I'm not very hopeful at the moment for ETH,
as much as I call myself myself a neat maxi yeah i feel you on that man um any other stuff that you're eyeing
man like crypto specific and i'll say it again i'll say it again right now i said this with
whoever the hell i was talking with it was that one that i that one chick that that was on hero spaces like a month ago i wouldn't even be looking at all there was a girl up here there
are no girls on the internet we forgot sorry my bad my bad man there was somebody here though
and they were talking about oh i'd be looking into alts and i'd be doing this when that was when you
know we were like hovering around like 89 92 000,000. I'm like, get the fuck out of here.
ETH was at like 3,600 like three weeks ago.
I was just like, no, I'm not doing anything, dude.
Like I'm stacking cash.
And that's what everybody should really be doing.
Unless you're feeling super like degen and you want to get into a position, go for it.
That's your money, not mine.
But I'm just going to stack cash and I'm going to wait for this to pan out and i've learned this cycle it's better from you know
sometimes it's better for you to sit on your hands be patient and wait you're not probably not get the
best entry but you'll get a pretty good decent entry and you know even if you did 3x um you know
over from from 2021 to to now you know or from 2021 to october you still you know done you know, over from 2021 to now, you know, or from 2021 to October, you still, you know,
done, you know, three extra turns in four years. You know, fuck what anybody else says. And sorry,
pardon my French. You're doing really well. Like, it doesn't matter where, you know, crypto is very
jaded space. So if you think you need to hit multiple 10 Xs, if you got the edge and you can
do it, do it. But if but if you know you're most people
like myself i i can say that i don't have that edge you know i i did i still pulled uh eight
an eight x over overall over you know for uh four years that's phenomenal it's not even where i
wanted to be but i'm looking at it now and looking at where price is right now if i
would have held dude i'd be a community matter community member for another four years and i'd be kicking myself down the road for it so uh as for answering their actual
question they asked me dude i'm not looking at nothing i'm just going to look at uh bitcoin
hyperliquid and eth and that's basically it until until something else pops up otherwise
yeah there's a reason that there's not a reason there's a reason that there's a possibility that hype could actually be bottomed
um i think if if we just continue to slide then we actually have a weekly close at this level
we could just go straight down to the the carry trade level at 48, 49K.
And I think that would probably take hype to at least like a higher low, say 24, 25.
That was the lower end of the range that we were at in Q1 of last year.
Maybe, maybe, man.
But it's like, I guess, buying BNB in a sense.
Back in 2018, 2019 2019 i would say i'm not sure who uh do you guys have anything else crypto specific to say
before i pass it on over to david and small caps yeah i was just curious your guys view on
microstro like is that actually going to zero what's going to happen on microstro you guys
hold on hold on i i meant i meant crypto not not
i was just gonna peace out i gotta get out of here wabi thank you so much for always having
inviting and have me on good stuff and i'm gonna listen to the recording because i i can't wait to
see what you guys say appreciate it thanks man thanks for coming evan regarding that mstr question
i think that you'll get that someone will have an answer for that very soon after the crypto talk.
Yeah, I've repeated the answer about a thousand times.
Just keep repeating.
Yeah, circular yelling.
I like David.
It's over.
I'm kidding.
Small caps, are you eyeing anything crypto-specific for majors?
Listen, man.
Any price level that you're looking at?
I stand right in the same field with Evan.
I feel like he's saying exactly what I've been thinking the last couple weeks.
I think you can expect, I don't want to call it a dead cat, but at least you're going to see a green week eventually.
I don't want to call it a dead cat, but at least you're going to see a green week eventually.
And I think that that starts coming on Bitcoin around the 200.
Where is it?
200 on the weekly, like around 58K.
I mean, that's where I've kind of been looking at like 58 to 62, really 60 to 62.
But now you have the 200 SMA, 200 moving average on the weekly at around 58.
So I don't really have anything too much to add
as far as crypto or Bitcoin I think it was more towards like the equities AI and obviously
strategy I mean dude strategy or I'll wait because I I know you wanted to stick to the crypto so if
anyone else has anything to say yeah yeah I'm gonna we're gonna talk about equities now uh phantom did you want to say
anything crypto related no to be honest i mean i feel like like on a higher time for instance
kind of expected like the chart was just heavy um wasn't really holding those levels very well
wasn't bouncing we're showing relative weakness the only thing i've really dca'd was monero and i did get some
hype because i think i was a big astro bull uh like couple months ago but i think it's clear now
that hype kind of won that perpstex race and the relative strength is like very respectable so
i actually did buy some uh hype as well and just dca'd monero bitcoin i'm not going to really be
interested in unless it gets under 50k like i'm really eyeing 40 to maybe a wick down to 32s pico bottom um until then i'm
not really going to buy bitcoin to be honest yeah i feel you on that david what's going on man i
hope you've drank drank your water and i hope you're ready to scream. Just take a few deep breaths and just scream.
Not yet. We have to work up to it.
Oh, okay.
Okay, everyone, will you please retweet the space to have your people come on?
We need more people. We can't be doing this with less than 1,000 people.
We're dropping alpha bombs like World War II.
So please, everyone retweet the space.
You're getting on here for free.
Spend two ounces of calories and retweet the space.
I don't recognize the world that's being described on the spaces today.
I mean, talk about deck chairs on the Titanic,
hearing about Ethereum on its way to double digits,
going up 20 times in price,
talking about the good old days in the 20s,
2022, 2021,
when the Fed was printing so much money they ran out of ink.
We had a 10x on the balance sheet from 08 to 22,
from 897 billion to 8.97 trillion.
Anything could go up, including cups with holes in them.
And people are looking at the good old days.
Are you watching what's going on?
Do you see what's going on with MicroStrategy?
It's down 80% and the S&P is down 2%.
It's down 40 times as much.
What happens when the S&P is down?
Where's strategy?
This guy's selling more equity to dilute the value of his coin.
And the equity he's selling is the preferreds,
and he's just telling everyone,
short my stock against the preferreds you're buying from me.
And look at his preferreds.
They're going down in price.
What's he going to offer, 15 now?
The guy's market cap is so low
that when it drops 50%, it's down 90. And when it's down below 20,
the big boys are going to come in, they're going to drive them into the floor,
and they're going to shake loose 715,000 coins. The guy just bought crypto at 98 last week,
at 98 last week.
And it's 63.
It's over.
Okay.
But the problem is
there is still so much bullishness
on this site,
even with smart people.
Where's Crypto Ghoul?
Ghoulsby, whatever his name is.
At least he got some balance.
I don't understand
how people are celebrating losing 50% of their net worth.
It's craziness.
They're celebrating the gift from God.
You were able to take 50% of my money away.
What happens if the decay of balance sheet growth,
which is the stated objective of the new guy.
The new guy says,
no balance sheet growth,
no QE.
QE made Bitcoin.
QE made Ethereum.
QE made the alts.
And they're getting sucked into them
like a reverse direction.
And people are just saying where they want to buy.
There's a guy who came on here the other day
telling us he was short.
Silver has got to build to 100 million short.
He's got 150 million longs.
And he thinks we're in the second inning
up to the fifth inning of AI.
And I said, I could barely see the eighth it's
the ninth or over time what do you think's going on with this IGV Microsoft
led the last time you think they could spend their self into relevance Amazon's
gonna spend 200 billion these stocks are in price discovery. Look at this Amazon. It was $188 and like 65
cents in 2001. It's not even 8% above that over five years. That's less than Bidenflation.
We lost the crypto support at 69. It's down by 50%. You've lost all the money.
Volatility that I said is rising on its primary downtrend.
It's at 90 today.
One more day of bear trade and Amazon might signal that people have to raise some cash at IBIT.
Takes you into the 50s.
These are real losses, folks.
It's $2 trillion of losses.
We're not talking about Pishikaka when the thing was down at $400 billion
and you go to $80 billion and you lose $320 billion.
We've lost $2 trillion on the way to losing $3.8 trillion.
We're going to get it when Microsoft's going down.
When Microsoft's going up, you short Microsoft and you buy crypto.
When Apple's going up, short Microsoft, you buy Ethereum.
When Nvidia's going up, you buy Ripple.
Because those will
rise faster and you'll catch up from your underweight.
You can't buy your own short.
What do we have? We have
McDonald's all-time high.
Coca-Cola all-time high.
Walmart. Main
Street! Main Street's getting the revenge.
You've got to get out of this financialized digital world.
Main Street's going to win.
What happened with mortgages today?
The three-year low, $5.59.
Rates are lower since the fixing.
We should get tomorrow a new three-year low in mortgages.
Homebuilders, lows.
When the fellow said he got out of some crypto when he bought Berkshire,
Berkshire's not attractive to me.
It's up. He made money. That's gorgeous.
What if more people did more of that?
And look to what's going up,
not what just used to go up,
because Buffett's trading at two times book value.
Buffett himself won't buy Berkshire.
He won't let the Treasury Department buy Berkshire,
because it's two times book.
The dollar is up.
The dollar is snugged up to still being under its 50
and its 200-day moving average,
although it is between its 50 and its 200 quarterly average.
But it's not even at its 50-day moving average, and Bitcoin can't withstand 50 and its 200 quarterly average, but it's not even as 50
day moving average, and Bitcoin can't withstand a quarter percent rise in the dollar. And all you
guys could talk about is the good old days, and let me buy more. How about sell a rip?
We'll eventually get a bounce. We had a bounce. It lasted. We got to 98. You should have sold.
I warned you.
It's not over.
This nonsense talk.
Ethereum 20.
Are you freaking kidding me?
Are you trying to hurt people?
There is no shot of any of this nonsense.
You had an addition of $8 trillion to the balance sheet in the fastest period of all
time the yen was chopped in half that money had to go somewhere and it went to crypto
and i'm trying to educate you people the mortgage function the mortgage volatility engine, allows growth of the money supply under inversion at the initial phases of the cuts.
And that's what happened in 2024.
When they did unnecessary cuts, when we had enough inflation, that cut was a supercharge.
And we said in the mid-cycle, when the curve is steep,
you lose duration from the shifting of fixed to adjustable.
And we're now at seven and
a half versus six two weeks ago, and we're going to go higher because the adjustable is the clearing
rate at $559 for the seven-year six-month adjust, and the United, that's Rockets, United is the
five-year one. That's probably $540, $535. We will have $499 mortgages before you could shake a stick,
and we're going to have more and more money
going into Home Depot and Lowe's and Walmart
look at the 52-week holidays
why be such a big shot
why be saying
I'm going to DCA something
that has lost half of all your money
in less than 4 months
half of all your money
is gone
forever in less than four months and all you guys could talk
about is parting with a buy signal talking about this nonsense that ethereum would have been better
if they tinkled under the engine for 10 million dollars are you freaking kidding yourself? We have a global unwinding.
E to A to O.
Everything, everywhere, all at once is going bad.
I went to bed last night and I woke up in the middle of the night for a few minutes as I always do.
And I took a look at the Japanese 40-year bond.
I said, holy crap, Bitcoin's going to get slaughtered today.
to get slaughtered today. Why? Because nobody noticed when the Japanese 40-year was at 4.1
Why?
basis points of 2,439-year payback. And then we got up 92 times at 3.695% on May 18th, 2025,
and then they start losing their minds. Then we come right back to the old high, and I said, I don't care if we trade through.
I don't think we're going to stay there.
I'll open it up.
For a client, not you on Twitter,
because you're not my clients,
I'd say buy the Japanese 40-year,
unhedged in yen,
because it went up 92 times.
What's it going to do?
Another 50 basis points?
We went up to 420, Elon's favorite number. We love you, Elon. And it's come back, gave up four.
We are 17.3 basis points from an eight-month low. This nonsense fiction clown show lie about too
much duration in the system is fake, fugazi, and it's not going to work, and it's not going to help.
You guys in CryptoVille need a steeper curve, and you're losing it. They can play all they want,
but what's the curve between the two-year and the 10-year? What's the curve between the funds
and the 10-year? That's much more important, between the five-year and the 10-year.
We've just collapsed. Look at some of these tails. What do they call them? Hanging stars
on the Japanese 20 or on the Japanese 40 or they look like dirt. The Nikkei, how's the Nikkei
going to hold up? It's up nine times while yields went up a hundred times. That's like a thousand
times under to overvalue. They're going to vacuum the liquidity out of the Nikkei.
It's going to be a global sell-off.
It's everything everywhere all at once is going bad.
And all you want to do is say, I want to continue shorting all-time highs like Walmart and Coke and McDonald's, which are Main Street, Johnson & Johnson, for the Band-Aids.
Four.
All-time highs.
You want to short them, you want to underwrite them,
to buy something that is collapsing,
under rising volatility.
Do you even understand what volatility means?
Do you know what skew means?
Do you know what kurtosis means?
You are playing in a neighborhood that's too dangerous.
You are bringing BB guns.
We're machine gun fest.
All I want to do is buy a dip.
This thing isn't dipping.
We had Sailor try to buy more.
Those coins are going to be scraped off his balance sheet.
We are going to find place for 715,000 coins.
Where?
There is nowhere.
You know where you're going to find that money going?
It's going to go to Staples, healthcare utilities,
interest rate sensitives.
Rick Centelli, Kramer 2.0, who we used to love, and now has become a nervous hilaria.
The breakout, the Elliott wave, four and a half.
We're at 4.18.
The two-year is just a whisk away from a new low.
If you're not watching the two-year,
and you're going transnational and watching the Japanese 40-year,
the flattening of the two-year U.S. and the 40-year in Japan,
and if you wanted to be more creative, the calls in the two-year short against the
puts in the 40-year in Japan, that flattening, that's a big problem.
We're losing liquidity,
and you think a rate cut's going to give you liquidity?
I told you all, whether this space or others,
rate cuts work under inversion.
They do not work effectively under steep.
And when you're steep and low, they destroy liquidity.
The liquidity destruction... Why is that? Because when you go from and low, they destroy liquidity. The liquidity destruction...
Why is that?
Because when you go from a fixed-rate mortgage
where the consumer is hedging the mortgage for the whole 30 years
to someone only buying the hedge for the seven-year period,
which acts like a four-year,
the bank who loses the longer-duration full mortgage with a CD offsetting or a debenture
offsetting it, and you turn that piece of paper from eight years, and Bess had said it today.
I was so proud of him. They're attacking him about mortgage rates, Trump not getting him down,
and he said, you know, normally people look at the mortgage rate, and you take the spread between
the mortgage and the 10-year.
And he said today it's a seven and a half year.
I was so proud of him.
Like what he said, he didn't realize that the Office of Management and Budget never counts growth above 1.8.
So when the extra growth comes and pays down the debt, it'll surprise people.
But it's the base case, but it can't come out of the OMB.
It's the base case, but it can't come out of the OMB.
So when you go and you have higher prepayments,
and those prepayments are increasingly going to the adjustable,
you're losing short volatility engine money that makes banks work.
Banks love to short volatility.
They'd rather do a fixed mortgage than an adjustable,
but nobody wants them because they don't qualify
because the curve is steep.'re up to seven i'm pretty sure i'm pretty sure that absolutely nobody
in that in this space understood that including me but it is an interesting it is an interesting
mortgage rates are at their lows that means everybody that's short mortgages are underwater
and they short more just to to buy Bitcoin. If you have
an inverted yield curve
and it un-inverts,
why is that bearish for risk?
No, no, that's Goldilocks for risk.
Because when they cut rates,
you push a ton of profit onto the bank's
balance sheet. You're lowering their funding costs.
Yeah, but that's exactly
what just happened.
That's what happened last year.
No, no, excuse me. That's what happened last year. That's what happened last year.
No, no, excuse me.
That's what happened in 24 that we described.
You're going to get higher yields, steeper curve.
It helps the bank net interest margins.
And we said this year it's the mid-cycle.
It's not going to help.
You'll get maybe a little.
So we got a little growth between the September 17 rate cut
and Sam Altman's fables.
And what happened since October 29?
It's straight down.
Straight down.
Because the cuts aren't working, because they can't steepen the curve.
All they're doing is dragging the curve down in almost parallel.
And if you're not steepening meanifully in a bull rally,
what you're doing is you're giving the banks low funding costs,
but you're stripping their assets off their balance sheets
by having the refi pick up.
So we have the lowest adjust rate mortgage in three years,
and that's because they said it earlier in the day before the meltdown.
Tomorrow we're going to be the lowest mortgage rate
in more than three years.
We're going to, and by the way,
the data was very slow because of the snowstorm.
The refi data was slow because of the snowstorm the refi data was slow because of the snowstorm so we're going to have crazy banana refi in two weeks
and that refi is going to cause banks to be forced to buy
the longer end of the curve. What do you think David what do you think the 30 year average
will be in two weeks if you had to guess? I'm talking about the
adjustable not the fixed.
Because the adjustable is in price discovery.
And that's the damaging one.
If you refi a 30 to a 30, what are you doing?
You're giving up a little duration from the implied option that's, you know, legacy.
And we now have more 6 plus than 3 and less.
So you have 3 trillion that are already massively refinanceable.
But I would expect us to be below $5.50 on the adjustable in February
and below $5.25, that's the $7.6.
The $5.1, that's $5.25.
And within three months, we'll have a $4.99 somewhere.
But the fix will go down to you, obviously, right?
You know, it does, but there's not as much damage when the fix goes down, Neil.
The damage to the system, the liquidity destruction comes from the adjustable
because you're canceling a mortgage that's got a lot more long-term payments of volatility.
You know, you're paying for the hedge for the full 30 years.
Once the adjustable goes to the adjustment period,
there's no spread because it's adjustable.
So the problem is people are short everything.
They're short the two-year to buy tech.
They're short the mortgage to buy tech.
And they're stuck looking at the bond
because Druckenmiller and a bunch of people ganged up on a piece of paper to buy tech they're short the mortgage to buy tech and they're stuck looking at the bond because
drunkenmiller and a bunch of people ganged up on a piece of paper that's maximally illiquid with
only three billion issued excess of long-term demand primary dealers take three billion the
lowest ever that's 36 billion they gotta they gotta kind of hang on to but as you bring down
the lower rate what happens this is This is the problem. You create
positive carry. You could buy a mortgage at 5%. You could fund it at two and a half,
three and a half. You make one and a half credit risk, no credit risk. And then you put more and
the lower the rate goes. We're 340 now, 346. We go to three and a quarter.
You go to three, it's all over at three.
You can't give someone 2% free money, asymmetric free money,
by funding a mortgage five with a funding cost of three.
It's too much.
It's too much profit.
It'll just bring the whole rate structure down.
And it destroys money because loss of duration is loss. And we're losing duration in Japan. This is why I love looking
at the Japan 40. It's coming down. It's like strategy. It's telling you a story. Look at
MICA strategy denominated in the Japanese 40. They're maximally entangled. They're as far up
in the risk curve as you can get. One's max deflation, one's max inflation.
But when you only have a frame that I have to buy a dip,
do you know if every single time I came on and said,
please sell a rip, don't buy a dip,
and you would have taken some of that money
and you would have bought anything that's on the 52-week island.
Look at Costco.
It's up 14%.
People were shorting Costco on valuation.
When this goes to a new all-time high
very soon you'll have 14 months of people who shorted bitcoin a costco because it was trading
at a 50 or 55 and it's going to go to 70 multiple and they're going to get run over because it's
not about multiples they buy tech stocks price to sales it It gets figured out later. The liquidity is just going to go.
Okay. They'll get more robotics. They'll get more AI. They'll cut their costs, whatever.
We're going to have more money. But this idea that you're required under law to buy a dip
instead of lighten, the fellow who said diverting some money to what was working is the only rational person on the stage.
He didn't do enough and he didn't buy the right stuff, but it's better than going and surrendering half of your net worth.
You guys are all half poorer.
Half poorer than less than four months.
You lost 18 years.
Well, that's not true.
I've mostly been flat i mean i've lost a
little bit but i'm basically did you tell everyone to be flat or did you tell them they're good well
i did dude i mean like okay so that's great but anyone who had any coin you lost half of the value
of your coin in less than four months and you're still thinking about buying more averaging down
because i think it does i think when when we're talking about buying more, averaging down. I think it does.
I think when we're talking about buying,
I'm talking about Ethereum.
If it's down another 80% to 90%, I would be buying it.
A lot of people would look at me saying that and saying,
Nakamotoisk wanting Ethereum to go down another 80% to 90%
is actually a bottom signal but i think
this time maybe it actually isn't well the point is so you're talking about giving up more than
decimal in ethereum because it was what 4 000 so you're talking about going to 400
and then going down even lower so you're talking about yeah i think i think i think a decimal yeah
400 okay were you saying it at the highs like I was?
So you know a lot of stuff.
You know the mechanics of it.
You think that $10 million investment might have saved, you know, $500, $300 billion worth of money.
No, I'm saying they underinvest in their development, right?
It wouldn't have made any difference.
It wouldn't have made any difference.
This is a global liquidation like if they're investing like five, you know
500 million a year and in their development it might make a difference but I kind of agree with you
Ethereum is very speculative
I just wish I could understand what you were saying because to be honest you briefly honest
I have no fucking clue what you're talking about
Do you know how to create money do you know how to create money yeah you you uh you you the banks create money by writing a loan that
loan comes no that's not how they create money they find someone that wants to borrow that's
how they create money then they write the loan somebody wants to borrow that's yeah you know
no no but it's the borrower that's the story. We don't have any borrowers. People are borrowing to buy Bitcoin,
borrowing to buy tech,
borrowing to buy AI.
Nobody wants to do that anymore.
So now we're lowering the clearing rate for money
because nobody wants to buy AI anymore.
That guy, Mike Alfred,
who said second to fifth inning of AI,
the game is over.
The fundamental build-out and stuff like that,
there's a lot of that, but the equity valuation,
that's yesterday's news, that's gone.
That whole thing is gone.
That 40 trillion triple Q, that's gone.
It's over.
You could pray and wish and hope.
Your micro strategy meltdown was your lead.
Your crypto was your follow on.
QQQ is your chaser.
It's over.
There's nothing you can do about it other than recognize it.
We can have this conversation every night,
watch every week as it melts down more
because it's not about this, it's the world.
Because when low beta stocks,
Staples Healthcare Utilities,
those were the main source of funds to buy the seven,
which we were max long in the fourth quarter of 2022,
shorting everything to buy it
because they were going to run.
They did their job.
They stopped going up on July 9th or July 10th of 2024.
We had 4% outperformance of the NASDAQ versus the S&P
from a 367% outperformance.
We only got four, not 367.
Like, very, very very little okay we got to a 380
peak from 367 so that's like four percent more and it took the removal of a trillion dollars of qt
a half a trillion of qe rate cuts of implied cuts of 50, and we could at maximum get 4%
outperformance, and that was during Sam Altman's fables, when Oracle told everyone they're worth
$345, and now they're worth $135. So we got no growth of NASDAq over the s&p since my pin tweet on july 17th 2024 except
for some of the policy support and now you can't you can't grow any more liquidity you can't find
anyone who wants to borrow the government under biden was crowding out the individual with their
federal dollars with their ham-handed.
That stopped under this administration.
Then we had AI dominance.
They were borrowing for the build-out.
Oracle tried, and they got canceled.
Oracle was exposed as counterfeit collateral.
They sent out $18 billion of paper.
It knocked their stock down by 60%.
You think they're going to really come
back for $50 billion more? Not on your life. There's no growth left in here. Sandisk, that
Wabi gave permission to exit Bitcoin and crypto and go look at it, it went bananas. And the day
it topped is the day after. He and I said, you know what? Long of the tooth. It fell $110 the next day.
The problem is people think a rate cut by definition means growing liquidity.
It does not always.
If you understand mortgages, you understand the model-driven nature of mortgages,
you'll find out it's going to end up destroying
it when you cut rates from here. There are times when they cut rates and the market goes down 2%.
And it relates to something called gravitational equivalence, policy equivalence. When Powell cut
on September 18th, 2024, when we had inflation above trend, growth above trend, and markets at
a high, in all likelihood, tell the vice president, the stock market flew because we had inflation above trend, growth above trend, and markets at a high, in all likelihood, tell the vice president.
The stock market flew because we had inflation,
and the rate cut just added to a more negative real rate.
They did it two more times.
The November 7th was after the election,
but it was positioned for so that it would be positioned in during the
election. And then what happened this time? We got to September 17th. Despite getting rid of the
QT fully, we got Pishikaka. The October 29 was straight down. We do not create money now. And
now when we didn't get a cut, that's telling you we have disinflation.
And not cutting is hiking.
You see, Greenspan on March 25th, 1997, just tugged up rates a quarter.
Inflation had printed 197.
And he said, just a snug.
99 days later, Thailand devalued.
Indonesia, then Korea, and then all of the emerging markets.
LTCM blows up at 411 days later.
Stock market gets a cut from Greenspan on October 8th.
October 10th, the market bottoms.
Greenspan cuts two more times.
The NDX goes up 450%.
He starts hiking in June of 99.
Again, I think November and December,
February and March 21,
up to six.
Market peaks at March 24, 2000.
The NASDAQ versus the S&P
had peaked on March 10 of that year,
the day micro strategy started, a 90.8% decline
over 38 days. Greenspan hikes again 50 basis points, I think May 16th or so. The Nasdaq falls
57%. The yield curve inverts 134 basis points. And Greenspan does nothing because he wanted to
deflate the bubble or the innovation equity,
the innovation inflation, or whatever you want to call it,
he was 39% more than GDP.
10.25% GDP, 14 trillion S&P, 6 trillion NASDAQ.
NASDAQ goes 6 trillion down to 1, you lose 5.
The S&P, 14 down to 7, you lose 7.
But 5 of those 7 was the NASDAQ.
We are not 4 trillion over GDP.
We're 40 trillion over GDP.
So if you wonder why I think low beta is going to become high beta,
and why I'm so excited and been screaming from the rooftops about low beta,
because low beta is going to be the new high beta.
Go look at the derivative structure. Go look new high beta. Go look at the derivative
structure. Go look at SKU.
Go look at Smile.
Go look at where they are.
Walmart,
Coke, McDonald's. Do you recognize
those companies? Energy.
What was I saying a week ago? Energy's
not durable. Energy
is not going to survive a stronger dollar.
It's good for now and you can make money trading it. Honestly, I don't think is not going to survive a stronger dollar. It's good for now, and you can make money trading it.
Honestly, I don't think Walmart's...
No one wants a stronger dollar.
A stronger dollar is great for Walmart because their imports go down.
But energy has been killing it, and still killing it.
I mean, it was positive.
Hey, Matt. Matt, what are your thoughts on these iron earnings and BCC officially in a monthly bear structure for the first time in four years, bro?
I feel bad for anyone. So I don't pretend to be an insider. I would never pretend to like have, you know, insider knowledge.
But all those people who kept saying, I feel bad for all the people who kept saying like
um here's they're gonna announce a major deal the tea leaves are pointing to some sort of
partnership deal with amazon or google and like my goodness an immediate negative 10 percent
it's like when when a when a shitcoincoin starts announcing a bunch of partnerships at like an all-time high, you know, what do you expect it to do next, right?
This thing would have 10 times in price this year.
And when I heard this gentleman saying he's going to short up to $100 million of silver, a single asset, massive volatility against $150 long with a frame of where the second to fifth inning,
I said anything he's involved with, I'm a natural short.
Yesterday, I confirmed I'm a natural short.
David, I think it was 20 million in silver.
No, no, he short 20 million,
and he said he would go up to 100 million short
if it went against him to hedge his 150 million.
Go listen to the recording.
I don't think he said he would go up to $100 million, though.
Short silver.
I said you'd have a single short of $100 million at a high
with $100 vol against another portfolio?
He said, yes, I can do it.
I said, when a guy says stuff like that, he's not real in my book.
He's not serious.
So anything he's involved with, this iron went from 6 to 50 and change.
I'm a natural short.
I don't need a hedge.
That ain't going anywhere but down.
It's a joke.
We're not going to need, no one's going to be able to afford this stuff.
You don't go up 10 times at the end of a cycle and keep it.
It's super late-stage beta.
It's not real.
People don't want to buy Microsoft.
You think they're going to buy this?
There's a big difference.
So here's a good example.
I think it was a week ago or two weeks ago.
People were saying back in the 80s, maybe this is a local low.
Maybe there's some support here.
And the big difference is, I'll admit, I was saying, hey, I could see buying here at 84, 83, 84, because it was finding a little support. But I said specifically, I said
very clearly, but if you fall, you put a stop loss at negative 3%, because if you fall through 80K,
there is no floor. We're going straight down. And why did you tell people to get short there?
But the risk meant, but I think what gets lost a lot of the times is there's no mention of like, okay, you're human.
You can be wrong.
But what are you doing to like risk manage?
Where are you getting out when like, okay, this is clear.
I got it wrong.
I didn't see this or some sort of news catalyst.
And I think that's what gets missed a lot of the time.
No, the problem is people have a bull mindset, not symmetry.
If you're going to say 84, there's a stop at 81, flip around and get short, at least
make some money.
You'd pay off your mistake.
The fact is we're having a global liquidation.
You could see it in the two year.
The liquidity is escaping and it has a place to go.
Okay, it now has a place to go.
The valve is open.
The drawbridge is down.
The liquidity is leaving
and that you can't put the band back together.
And you got to learn and try to keep as much capital
and be gradual and slow and start over
instead of trying to do the old way
hey david just scream that it's over it's over
man but this is but this is also what i was talking about yesterday before we keep dropping
this is also what i was talking about that sitting in s p 500 isn't going to save you either because
talking about that sitting in S&P 500 isn't going to save you either because
not enough of it is in industrials.
Nobody ever said stay in the S&P. We said buy what's going up.
And we have plenty of things at all time highs.
We kind of had this discussion just the other day, David.
I never, ever, ever don't lie about me.
I never would say be in the S&P 500.
That is a lie.
I'm not letting you lie about me.
I said winning sectors.
I said the S&P is going to outperform the NASDAQ.
Don't ever lie about me.
Oh my goodness.
You're making mistakes and costing people barrels of money.
I'm not going to let you diminish my unconflated message.
I said we're at a global liquidation.
There are things going up because they were rebated and the short of those are being liquidated.
Don't you ever do that again.
I don't remember hearing. I was screaming at the top of those are being liquidated don't you ever do that again i don't remember hearing
this is the first time i was screaming at the top of my lungs i write it it's my pink tweet it's what
i lead every spaces with don't you dare do that or i'm never coming on this space again i will
not be around liars i made it clear buy what's working buy what's working. Buy what's working.
I said, you're in a sector, energy may get a lift,
but if it's going to be short-term,
why not buy something that's got more runway?
But you can make money in it, so fine.
Don't you ever say I'm long at S&P.
Don't you ever do that again.
You think it's funny?
You're a schmuck.
You lie about someone. You damage it's funny? You're a schmuck. You lie about someone.
You damage their brand,
their reputation.
You should be saying,
thank God for you.
You're the only one that called the low.
You're the only one
that called the high in Bitcoin.
You're a humiliation
how much you said,
oh, you could buy,
buy, buy, buy, buy, buy.
People lost half
of their net worth
listening to you.
They would have doubled
their net worth or raised it by 10% listening to me.
Don't you ever, ever do that again.
You think it's funny?
You're an asshole.
I guess I'm representing everyone who's ever disagreed with you.
I don't recognize a lot of those conversations.
No, I have plenty of people disagree.
You lied about me.
Not disagree.
I disagree with you fundamentally. I don't think you know anything. But you lied about me. You lied about me. Not disagree. I disagree with you fundamentally. I don't think you know
anything, but you lied about me.
You lied about me.
Don't you ever fucking lie about me again.
And I don't curse.
Don't you ever do that.
You're a mocking clown.
You're laughing like it's a joke.
You're an asshole.
All you do is rip up people's money.
That's all you do. Rip up people's money. And you
come up here with your other fake stories. This is how you're going to make. All you do is rip
up people's money. And I'm trying to explain to people, follow the money. Don't listen to me.
Where do I think the money's going to go? Follow that. And you lie and say, I said,
buy the S&P 500. Are you kidding me? Don't you ever do that again,
or that's the last time I'm on the same stage as you.
You freak, lying about someone.
It's disgusting.
All you do is rip up people's balance sheet,
their net worth, buy, buy, buy,
as it's falling like a collapsing knife.
All you do since I've been on here,
buy every dip, and all you do is rip up money on here, buy every dip and we, all you do
is rip up money. And then
in order to make yourself decent, you lie
about me. Go to hell.
I got to get out of here. I can't
take this. Yeah.
I'm worried about you. That
was pretty intense.
I mean, I
go toe to toe and back and forth,
but I don't recognize a lot of those conversations.
Maybe I was harsher.
Maybe I was, you know, making assumptions.
Well, yeah, anyway.
Anyway.
Yeah, let's talk about the long end.
Yeah.
Let's talk about the long end.
Small.
You had your hand up for a while.
I'm all right.
I mean, I'm fired up, man.
I think I got to get out of here too and hit legs today.
I got to go to the gym.
But listen, man, I really wanted to ask him about.
holy shit i wanted to um i wanted to ask him about strategy because
Holy shit.
i'm not sure exactly well okay all right so i was gonna i was gonna tell him because i think
i don't think that he views it the same way i think he he thinks that like bitcoin's dropping
for other reasons than than just strategy and. And for me, I'm starting
to kind of like, I think the veil is starting to erase and I'm starting to see things a little bit
clearer. I actually think that like what we're seeing now in, in, in Bitcoin and this like
deleveraging or whatever you want to call it is very much so because of strategy. And I'm not
going to, you know, I don't want to put the whole blame on it.
But look, when like lenders, they're not going to wait for sentiment to recover.
They're going to reduce risk.
Like they don't hold bags.
So it means margin calls, tighter terms, or just forced deleveraging.
And the cleanest and fastest way to do it within all of these, sorry, my dogs are barking, like in all of these like different financing
structures and just instruments like the preferreds for the lenders, the cleanest and fastest way is
to just sell Bitcoin. And, you know, at the same time, institutions, they're absolutely running capital arbitrage.
They're buying strategy preferreds to sit higher in the stack, to have the downside protection, and they're shorting the stock.
And the trade only works. And that could be problematic for strategy shareholders.
Certainly it's problematic for shareholders that are sitting in this bear market.
But until strategy actually sells a single Bitcoin, it doesn't affect BTC price.
it doesn't affect BTC price. For instance, look at IBIT, look at BlackRock's ETF. They just had
one of the biggest daily volume candles on one of the biggest weekly volume candles on one of the
biggest monthly volume candles in its history, all outflow. That has a massive effect on BTC price. All those coins, and again,
remember that BlackRock's ETF, and there's other very large ETFs that I'm sure are completely in
outflow right now too, but BlackRock's ETF surpassed strategy, accumulated more coins, more total value under management, bigger than Saylor.
And their ETF sells. And Saylor, yeah, maybe one day Saylor has to sell some coins to meet his
debt obligations or something. We can do the what if, but zero of this price action to the downside
is due to any sailor selling. It's all due to the spot ETFs and large whales and retail and
et cetera, et cetera. But the spot ETFs that sell constantly on red days just to stay at NAV. Yeah, look, I mean, I guess I can agree with
you on that, but I don't know, man. I think we're in a little bit of a different position.
The collateral has dropped literally 50% in three months, right? Three, four months.
And I think you're seeing pressure i know that strategy is
obviously not selling coin but you're seeing the pressure come from a few different directions
right one is collateral like collateral mechanics and the other is hedging and this arbitrage that
we're seeing so when the stock is, all these prime brokers are tightening their
exposure. Volatility is rising. And I think we're just seeing rebalancing, which is forcing the
hedging and the selling and more Bitcoin. I wouldn't say deleveraging, but just being sold.
I don't think it's because long-term holders want out.
I think it's just because from a lending perspective, do you kind of get what I'm saying?
From a lending perspective, I think the balance sheet needs it.
I do.
I get what you're saying. I would just add that this exact same dynamic also played out in 2022.
Like Sailor's strategy had a significant enough market cap after 2021 that they were doing the same thing.
They were highly confident that strategy would fall faster and farther than Bitcoin price.
And so short sellers and hedge funds were piling in against strategy and making a killing off of
it as strategy went from, I think at the time before it was, you know, from a thousand or
I think it was closer to maybe 600 or so on the back half of 2021,
all the way down to what, 80?
What did it get down to?
$50 a share?
It fell off a cliff.
But just like in 2022, and remember that was a negative 75% bear market
from the all-time high.
But just like in 2022, Saylor didn't actually sell a single
coin, but it didn't matter. You still had plenty of willing sellers lining up to, you know, sell
their orange coin on exchanges, regardless if Saylor was lightening his bags either.
So yeah, I just looked it up.
Yeah, Sailor fell, strategy fell from,
I guess this is post-split,
but it fell from basically $90 a share
all the way down to $13, $14.
So negative 85% fall in less than 180 days.
Now, hopefully this bear market isn't as bad as 2022, but the dynamics is exactly the same like just like just like last bear market strategy never sold a
coin but price still went down to the floor wherever it was going to find the support
and i think it's going to happen the same way here everyone's going to be super um angry and
staring at sailor this is acceleration man this is like i i would say like if we're following 2022 this is
this is basically like going into luna um we're now cut in half so we're like we're at like
basically luna as luna was going to zero essentially um but i i think everyone's on
crack those who say that we're going like sub 40k i don't think that's happening i i think everyone's on crack. Those who say that we're going like sub 40k, I don't think that's happening.
I think that's honestly crazy.
A little bit of hopium.
So right now we have finally, Bitcoin Weekly RSI has finally fallen below 30.
You should look at the monthly, Matt.
Monthly as well.
It tells an even better story dude and the weekly on
solana um the rsi is approaching right as soul was hitting eight dollars and for those that
you know have listened to me since i've been here for the last like three plus years
i think everyone will remember i had trader xo on the same day that solana hit eight dollars
trader xo said why is anyone going to short solana at these levels why not buy TraderXO on the same day that Solana hit $8, TraderXO said,
why is anyone going to short Solana at these levels?
Why not buy?
And it's like eating too much of the bear juice, it can trick your mind.
We're nowhere near those levels.
By the way, did somebody call MyMom1 for David's?
Is he okay?
I don't know, man. I think those same levels for Solana are like 35-45.
If we just look at the strength of the sell-off for weekly RSI,
if we're just looking at the strength of the sell-off,
this is like 20K in 2022.
This is like 5-6K in 2022. This is like a five, six K in 2018. I mean, we're, we, it doesn't mean that price
is going to bottom right here at 62. Maybe it's 52. Maybe it's, maybe it's 58, who knows, but
weekly RSI below 30. That is one of my, like, that's a big green blaring alarm to me that says, hey, you've got anywhere from three to six months for price to bottom out.
And it's your signal to like, if you like Bitcoin, that's your time to like go and start.
Yeah.
And we also got to see hood back in an uptrend.
That's another signal, man, because hood and Solana, it's the same exact trade.
But hood is not going to see good days until everything bottoms out and starts moving higher.
Because how does hood make money?
They make money off of retail gambling.
And if retail is losing money, Hood's losing money.
And if retail is losing money, hood's losing money.
And if Hood starts missing – like Hood is going to report earnings.
It probably won't show up in this earnings.
It'll probably show up in the next earnings.
But no one is going to give Hood the benefit of the doubt if markets still haven't bottomed out.
You know what I'm saying?
They only – just like Coinbase, hood only makes money when you and your cousins
and your uncles and your friends are making money after money on, you know, leveraged weekly options
and crypto and, you know, writing all the high flyer stocks up hood loses money and loses assets under management in a bear market period
naka what do you think about uh strategy and you know all this arbitrage going on i'm wondering
and correlating it to just the deleveraging and selling that we're seeing in bitcoin do you
correlating it to just the deleveraging and selling that we're seeing in bitcoin do you
see it as like more of a like a pretty high correlation or do you do you see it as just a
mixture of a ton of things or not even has or doesn't have to do with i don't know i mean i
don't trade the tradify stuff i don't understand uh strategy's whole web of but the
basic idea of it i think is they hold bitcoin they're kind of like
there was like a coin on bnb called cake monster that actually did the same thing that microstrategy
was doing like you'd buy the monster token and then it would charge you like a like a small buy
selfie and it would use that to buy the pancake token and it built up this like treasury of pancake and for a while like you
know monster would trade at a premium to its uh to its cake treasury which then further fueled
bullishness and growth and so i mean it's a kind of um that's basically what they're doing it's a
bit more complicated because you have like the different you know the stock and the preferred
and you have like people who want the upside of bitcoin and people who just want a fixed upsides
it's a bit more complicated but basically when these things unwind it's pretty rough and i mean
i look at the trend line that strategy was on and i think it can just go back down to 20 dollars
basically with 22 um which is still like a 80 dump from where it currently is um especially if bitcoin you know
gets wrecked i mean if bitcoin goes to like 30k maybe 40 you know i mean like i was saying like
you know 30 or 40k is like an eventual downside target before we got today's price action and
it's now not even that far away so i'm like maybe we drill a little bit deeper just to scare people
you know high 20s i don't know
oh you're already moving your goalposts i mean it's like it's it's not based on the price that's based on the time like if we've got you just said it was based off price just off of what
based on how quickly we got to that so you're more embarrassed than ben cowan based on based on how quickly we got like if if we got
good i mean the elevator is pretty quick you know the stairs up the elevator down
hell the elevators elevator is always pretty quick if we got to this price in like june or something
i'd be like yeah this eventually bottoms at 40k but we're at this price and it's
But we're this price
We've barely ended January and we're like like Solana is trading at like 70 fucking dollars or something
Right, like it's dropped as this sorry 79. It's dropped as this space has been on from the 90s to the 70s
Right, like that's how bad things are
Um, like, you know, and i said we're barely out of
january if we were at these prices in june i'd be like yeah 30 40k bottom is probably the call but
now i'm looking i'm like maybe we need more pain than that you know fair fair um man so so you're more embarrassed than Cowan
Cowan thinks we bottom at like
46 to 48
From the log charts that he has
Yeah but like
48 we're going to be at 48 tomorrow
Like you know never mind
In the fair market bottom
Like dude like 48
It's even that far like we're
Like what 63 it's not That far it's like another You know 15 ish K Like, dude, like 48 isn't even that far. Like, we're at, like, what, 63?
It's not that far.
It's, like, another, you know, 15-ish K.
I don't know, man.
I'm getting bored, bro.
Like, I think it's almost time in a bid time-wise.
Yeah, I actually, I mean, if we Zoom way out.
Yeah. Let's try to, you to – it's fun talking shit, but like a moment of seriousness.
If we zoom way out, what was the big thing we learned from the 2022 bear market from that cycle?
It was, okay, the previous all-time high range from 2017 ended up being more or less the 2022 floor you know don't not
exactly 19k but you know between 15 and 20k yeah pretty close well 15k is a pretty big 15k is a
pretty big discount from 19 that's like going from 100k to 75k i mean right i mean yeah percent
but yeah but we but we can play the whole what if like oh what if
ftx was made different choices and what if they were solving and what if this and what if that
like we we know why we went to 15k when we did but before ftx you could say the floor was more or less
what 18 20k remember yeah but i, the thing is, you know.
Okay, but we're missing, we're missing. My simple point, I'll just finish it up. My simple point was,
now it's rough, and it wasn't, and it's not an exact science. I mean, these are, these are,
these are massive whales and entities all across the globe that have their own emotions and get liquidated for this reason or
that. But the big takeaway from 2022 was the 2022 floor ended up more or less being the old 2017
ceiling. And I could see it happening just like that again. The 2026 floor could end up more or less being the old 2021 ceiling so you know
whatever you want to call it between 50 you want to call it 50 and 60k you know loads of people
loads of people in 2022 you know said 20k was the bottom it was an obvious bottom they all went long
and they all got wrecked because like 14.7 or whatever is a very long way away under 20 like that's going from like 100k to the
mid 70s um and i think it will actually go lower like it'll like every every bull market
goes up less but the bear markets the drawdowns don't... You forget, Naka, you forget that post Terra Luna,
we wicked all the way down to 17.5.
And then even after FTX,
all we did was go from the previous low of 17.5 to 15.5.
So, I mean, if you're talking low to low,
it was really only another 11%, 12%. And I know it felt worse than that because we had been
doing bounces and we had even climbed all the way up to 24, you know, 24 and a half by late summer,
remember? And people are getting real excited,
like, hey, bear market's over. We're at 24K. And that's why it felt so much worse to fall from 24
all the way down to 15. But if we're being real honest, Terra Luna disaster crashed to 17.5.
crashed just to 17.5 and then ftx was only 2000 lower than that at 15.5 so another 11 12 percent
yeah i mean if you if you go wick to wick it's like a 12 percent uh extra uh wreck i have a
question for you guys do any of you guys own bitmine bmnr i was shorted earlier but i cashed all that out good for you yeah i i like and i don't want
to be mean or anything because i know that there's a lot of i'm sure i'll get some shit for it but i
don't see i don't know how anyone owns that that stock um and i understand like the case for it
right just being exposed to ethereum but i don't understand the case for it yeah okay
then i don't i guess i'm just trying to be nice and not get you know rated in my dms but they like
i mean shareholders i i don't know how you could want to hold something where you're greenlit
to ballooning shares 100x right 500 million to million to 50 billion. That's basically the green
light to fund and just keep buying these dips. I mean, Bitmine is a loaded gun for equity raises to just buy more Ethereum. And it's, I mean, it's streaming
desperation to me. Like they don't have a lot of cash. They got like 500 million cash, maybe 600
million. Um, the losses are mounting. Yeah. They're going to like, they're going to flood
the market with shares, which is completely eroding and just have to know that. Yeah.
which is completely eroding and just have to know that. Yeah. They have no choice and it's
just crushing earnings per share and your stake as a shareholder. Um, if they lever up to like
volatility is going to explode. Like I'm looking at the, at the chart right now. I mean, I don't
want to call Tommy Lee a crook or, or, but I don't know. It's just, it's just mind boggling
to me. Um, I'm just kind of at a loss for words. Like I'm looking at this chart and I remember how
bullish everyone was on it, like back in, uh, you know, October, even like just ever since that July,
you know, they announced what they were doing in July. I mean, we're literally about to be back at the, uh, the, the low of that day, uh, July 3rd. Um, and I don't see anything stopping this. It's
just, I don't know, man, it's crazy. Um, and I'm kind of like, I'm not getting, you know,
all, all types of like scared and I'm just calling it how it is. Right. I, I see some like
major, um, holes in both of the models both of the business
models of strategy and bmnr right now um but i would i mean i i think it's not even a comparable
situation i'd much rather be like a strategy holder or just i'm not invested in either but
i'd much if i had to put an allocation i would do 20 i would do 95 5 between strategy and and and bit mind um you know it just i don't know i i think that yeah things
like this real quick matt i think it just kind of like destroys the integrity of whether you want
to call it crypto whatever you want to call it i think it destroys the integrity of this. And I'm kind of pissed off. When I see Tom Lee get up there and he says, you know, he was on CNBC yesterday or two days ago.
And he says that his head, his chief navigator or whatever, his chief strategy guy said that all the what he would need to see for like for the stars to align for a for a bottom would be bitcoin going to 74 000
and uh ethereum at around 2400 22 to 2400 we finally reached that point so it looks like a
bottom is coming that's basically what he said so then why were you buying hundreds of why were
you buying billions of dollars of ethereum at 4 000 and and 3 800 or whatever it was even within the last few weeks it just i don't know
man it doesn't make sense to me it seems like it just seems like a lot of bullshit to me
and i get it you can stake he's staking his earnings he's you know providing
getting a couple hundred million in cash flow from there but still it's just
it's pretty wild to me maybe i'm missing
something no i don't think i'm missing anything i think these are going to explode like yeah i think
they're going to explode and the way it's going to happen is they're going to get like the value
of the crypto is going to crash so much it's going to be so bearish um their stocks are going to crash and then eventually
they're going to get voted out um probably by the shareholders and the shareholders will liquidate
like that's what i think happens eventually i mean that should happen to the eath foundation
the foundation has the opposite problem it actually doesn't it's actually not selling
enough eath right but the these this kind of like tom lee guy and sailor you know they are
gonna not selling enough it looks like they're doing a great job at that man they're not they're
not selling much they have the pittance they should be selling more to spend more on development
but like these these basically i mean yeah you call them digital asset trusts, but they're really just Ponzi schemes.
They're really like treasury Ponzi schemes, like around,
like why doesn't anyone do this with gold?
I guess it's because if you did it with gold, it would be like, or silver,
it would be kind of like buy my company, right?
We're going to, we're going to take the share money and we're going to buy a big like hoard of gold and silver.
Well, essentially that's what, that's what miners, that's what gold and silver miners well essentially that's what that's what miners
that's what gold and silver miners essentially are just because they don't have like do they
have like a big hoard of gold though no they just they sell it they sell it immediately but if you
think about it it's still like you can't sell gold for any more than the willing price will pay
of that day so it's essentially the same it's almost the same thing yeah but you
can sell like you can if you if you create a company and you say my strategy is going to
raise money through shares i'm going to buy up all the gold that's going to create a squeeze in the
gold market and then you know you have famous examples of how that really didn't work the
you know the hunt brothers with silver there was that
example with nickel like you have you have famous examples people already tried this with precious
metals right so that's all like the bit mine thing and micro strategy are just that but with
cryptos that's all it is and all they're doing is that old strategy of like let's get a company
buy up all the gold put it in a treasury and then we'll squeeze the price and what the difference is there the difference is you could
argue strategies doing it at year uh what did they when did they technically start year 14
instead of year you know 14 000 1400 or or 2000 you know like they like they're, they're,
they're, they're, they're, the whole claim is like, we're early, you know,
and no one owns this asset.
But the way, the way that these Ponzi's explode basically is when the price of
the underlying crashes, that's when it goes bad.
And what are we seeing today?
The price of the underlying is getting wrecked. Right.
Yeah. But so I don't have a,
so we, you know, we're going to, it's, it's,
it's going to be a long bear market guys,
like strap in for the next three to six months. So we'll,
we will absolutely beat this dead horse into the ground.
Just like we did in 2022 of like, oh, Saylor has to sell. No,
he doesn't have to sell. Oh, his debt's a problem. Well, actually, he's only 20% debt of his total.
Like he's not even in trouble. Like we will beat this dead horse to death and then some.
But the short answer to me is, look, he's already been here. He's already, he's already done this.
They know exactly how to weather a nasty bear market in 2022 was no slouch. So like, if I had
to bet on who's going to come out the other side, it would be sailor and strategy every day. Like,
yeah, they'll probably be fine. And if you're telling me that i've looked i've looked into the math on this
and basically microstrategy would have to start selling by about 2030 because he's encumbered his
bitcoin with a bunch of these like obligations right he has to pay premiums out to you know
some of his like premium note holders whatever it is so he would find out so to me so so that's so there you go that's easy so like
if you're unless you think bitcoin is going to skip a bull market oh okay price just has to be
higher by 2030 no i mean like the price has to be higher than like well it has to be higher than it
is about now because this is roughly price well it's a bit below price but basically the the lower it
goes the quicker he goes like like the lower he goes the quicker he runs out a bit more bitcoin
to sell but he still has like about 18 months of runway or something without selling any something
like that like he has a decent amount of time the the ethereum one you know i think doesn't even
have any encumbrance on the ethereum that they help they
hold um but you know like it could get liquidated by a shareholder vote um and i think like sailor
could also get liquid it just depends on it depends basically on whether the market stops
believing in their thesis if the market stops believing in their thesis it can send the the
share price to like absolute
hades and then somebody can buy it up hold a shareholder vote because like once these this
is the problem with these treasury companies right if it's a publicly held company there's
a treasury treasury company and the stock trades at a massive discount to its assets
then somebody can basically raid it like do a corporate raid on it. Um, and yeah, um,
like, I think that is a risk for these. And I think that could potentially be a sort of way
that this, you know, that this, uh, market ends basically bear market basically ends. I mean,
you could say this is already the end of the bear market today, and it's entirely possible. But I'm looking at my model for the percentiles on relative strength index, and we're starting to hit basically the bottom on some of those timeframes now.
Yeah. I mean, right now, look, I'm not no one should be in any rush.
Bitcoin just put in a new 52-week low today.
So there's no rush to get into anything unless you just want to DCA Bitcoin.
But if you had to start looking at strategy...
Matt, we went back to levels pre-election, man.
This is pre-election.
But isn't that what we were talking about, Wabi?
Honestly, it's going to be a second chance to buy 2024 prices, and that's where we are.
Yeah, either that or the boomer price, which is between $38,000 to $48,000, which is the lowest I see it go.
If that's going to happen, it's going to happen this month.
It's going to happen this month. to happen like this month it's going to happen this month i feel like those are i just don't see this whole thing dragging out
i feel like those are some coping people that like they just like they're angry and they just
want to see others get hurt and it's like oh yes it has to go and retest the boomers who
come on not all the boomers bought on black rock ipo day that's crazy. And so what's so magical at 40? Nothing really.
Anyway, but like to strategy, the stock is trading at 0.550. Basically, it's trading at half book value even right now. Wow, that's incredible.
So I'm just going to make a mental note of that. In three months or even six months,
if it really feels like Bitcoin has more or less put in a floor, that's when I start looking
further out the risk curve of like, okay, what's that valuation on some of these other Bitcoin companies? Because if you truly think Bitcoin is the bottom is in or more or less the worst is over,
then you start looking, but not a moment before that.
Yeah. I mean, the thing is it's trading trading it. It's trading there, like today, but you know, what if Bitcoin goes lower, right? What if Saylor? Here's the thing, right? What if, what if Saylor blasts a bunch more money, he encumbers the Bitcoin more, you know, maybe we get a bounce, it goes up to 80k. And then at the top of the bounce, you know, we get a tweet, know micro strategy has bought you know 10 billion dollars
of bitcoin an average price of 89k and then we go back down to like 30 or something like that's why
that's exactly what happened last week there was an exact tweet that said he bought at 87 where he
had 63 yeah i mean but the thing the thing with that is though, people are buying his financial products every day, every week, every month.
And per their mandate, they're not supposed to be sitting on cash.
As soon as they get cash from selling those preferreds or selling debt or selling shares, whatever it is, they're supposed to slam it into Bitcoin.
So like it's not – people make fun, people make fun, like, aha,
like they just can't trade worth shit, but that's not, that's not their,
that's not their mandate. That's not their thesis. They're,
they're supposed to be putting that money that they make sales on,
whether they're selling debt, shares, preferreds, et cetera.
They're supposed to slam that straight into bitcoin with little to no
um downtime so to speak um then yeah so anyway i wish they could explain that better but
they never will but
sullivan how are you welcome to what's up bobby i'm not sure uh i'm gonna follow some of the speakers from earlier
in the space but i'll do my best man how are you not much man just enjoying the company of a few
fellow freaks on the stage real no i um chud jacks bro they're blown they're they're uh they're getting blown out man oh it's over for
the chuds man i i think everything's about to happen wabi i uh i'm not gonna lie i mean look
to talk about the markets right i mean we're basically seeing the short volatility trade that
underpinned the entire move on bitcoin this cycle unwind, right? Like vol is exploding. Look at devol,
right? On TradingView, straight up in a straight line, unpinned on October 10th.
Insties, TradFi, Sailor, these ETF dark pools, they've all, you know, throughout the entire
cycle, they've shorted volatility, both literally as well as mechanically, right? Selling options,
Coinbase's black box where they
offload and deal with the ETF buying and selling behind closed doors. Michael Saylor and these
treasury companies buying every dip to mute downside and then selling covered calls against
their Bitcoin to hedge, right? But I will say at least for the covered calls in real tail risk,
which we're kind of starting to see right now, the premiums that you're going to earn from selling those calls, there aren't they aren't going to outpace the decline of the underlying Bitcoin holders.
And that's why these people are getting wrecked.
That's why we're seeing this explosion out of Bitcoin volatility, because it's it's basically, again, like you've you're ripping out the spine of the market, for lack of a better term.
So because volatility was suppressed for so long, talking about Bitcoin vol, right?
I mean, we're seeing this regime shift occur, basically, where you're seeing vol up.
Where typically throughout Bitcoin's entire history, Bitcoin volatility going higher would be bullish for price.
But we've seen that definitively shift throughout this cycle.
Oh, you could have.
Oh, did I?
Am I good now?
All good.
Perfect.
Now, what was I saying?
I mean, it's just like throughout the entire cycle we've seen this regime where volatile again
like bitcoin volatility has been in a downtrend for the last three or four years where in the
before that because bitcoin would always run so many more multiples to the upside than
the percentage that you could possibly go lower um if that makes sense like volatility was usually
correlated with price appreciation but we've seen because Bitcoin's been more institutionalized, we have more of this like low volatility, stairs up price action this cycle with controlled drawdowns.
That's the important part, right?
I mean, I remember at one point today I looked at Bitcoin.
It was down 14%.
That has not happened, I think, in a day since probably since like December 4th of 2021, which is a really long time.
But yeah, I mean.
We don't talk about that.
That was a crazy day.
Wobby, real fast.
Iron is negative 22% after hours.
What a disaster that hurts.
We were discussing this on Monday and,
oh boy, you know, is iron worth a bit and we all said no no no i'm sorry go ahead uh well yeah i mean i was just uh it really is just
like this short volatility system that we're seeing blow up and it started on october 10th
when we had that huge liquidity squeeze if you look at dvall you can see exactly that's where on the chart that the skew
like really flipped and uh and vol going higher started correlating with bitcoin going lower
which is you know why we're seeing what we're seeing today um but uh yeah i mean i honestly
like i know there's going to be this rush to call the bottom because we're at prices that we didn't really expect to see for a while on a relatively short timeline. But I mean, honestly, I think the tail
risks are just starting to build. Right. I mean, somebody already mentioned it earlier in the
space. But what what also started on October 10th was just like this massive squeeze throughout the
entire crypto ecosystem on collateral. There's been a lot of speculation about Binance, right?
Are they selling because they have a hole in their balance sheet?
Who's selling?
Is it just, you know, are there holes in DeFi?
Who the hell knows, right?
The point is there's not as much liquidity in crypto.
As a result of that, you've seen like this slow catch up to that realization.
But we're seeing it now, I think, much more suddenly as, again, as that tail risk is starting to build. And, you know, let's talk about micro strategy,
because what it effectively is, how they've been generating so much revenue is it is a vehicle to
short Bitcoin volatility on crack. So the move on D-Vol is directly related to MicroStrategy's breakdown. The weakness that we're seeing in their
fixed income vehicles, STRK, STRC, they're breaking down. And even Coinbase's stock,
which has not bounced in the last few weeks, like all of the vehicles that benefited so much from
shorting volatility as institutions are getting wrecked today.
That's not a coincidence, man.
So if you wonder why we're selling, that's why.
It's totally positional.
It's totally related to positioning, in my opinion.
But I also think it's giving—and here's the alpha, I hope, right?
Like, it's giving you a hint of what's going to happen in the MAG-7 and big tech equities,
which is that vol rises and everything starts to completely collapse. We saw a small hint of this back in September and
October. But, you know, I honestly feel like you could you're probably about to see tech freefall
for maybe like the next two or three months. Honestly, I think so. Bitcoin is front running
this, right? Like we're 20 percent below liberation day lows. And I think you're crazy if you think
that that tech isn't going to eventually
catch up to what Bitcoin is doing structurally, at least to a large degree. How deep you think
it goes, sure, that's up for debate. But Bitcoin is definitely front running, a pretty large move
down in tech. And just in the same way that crypto's trade of the cycle has largely been designed to short volatility as a way to go higher,
it's exactly what the AI trade is for equities, right?
Largely hiding behind some of these illiquid private valuations and the massive appreciation that we've seen in NVIDIA and Metastock.
But here's the thing, like most aren't willing to entertain the enormous left tail equities
are presenting right now because I think they're hoping Bitcoin bottoms here or close to it.
But, you know, I felt like since 1010, we're headed for a larger liquidity crisis in crypto.
What are the unpopular downside targets?
I mean, like really ask yourself what that means.
And I would say start to take them a bit more seriously.
I mean, what do you think the unpopular downside target is?
Because I think...
$30 Solana.
What's the target that makes your stomach hurl, Nakas?
What's the target that makes your stomach hurl, Naka?
Not a bull, but you.
Not a bull, but you.
For me, I mean, I think if we break below the previous cycle low,
that's starting to really make me worry.
Anything above that is still okay-ish.
Yeah, I would say revisiting cycle lows would be a very unpopular target
like i still think the the 40s is a fairly popular target it's maybe more of like on the extreme end
of popular targets but i think you know it's it's not something that just like cockroaches who were
here before 2022s blow up right like they're not going to necessarily be scared to leave crypto
forever at 45k i think they would at cycle lows yeah i mean if we got if we got say 13k
or something like that just as a wick um people would be people would be terrified people wouldn't want to touch the asset
class because they'd say oh my god it's made it's made a macro lower low it's over like that
is what would actually schedule anything above that is kind of survivable like even if it's like 25
it's like well it's a lot lower than people expected but you know i mean diminishing returns
and everything it's you know it is what it is right yeah i would spend a day dude i would spend a day in prison
um if it met me getting more money to buy at those prices bro like i would i would spend a
day in i don't know what you're talking about naka i i really do not if we go down to third what would scare me is sub 10k
at that point all right dude like pack it up like we're done yeah like there are bigger things to
worry about than crypto at that point man because crypto it's kind of like a gauge of like where the
world is right i mean meme coins and all that stuff are going up like crazy. You had bankrupt companies like Carvana going up like crazy.
You had you also think I think I think there was like a meme stock that was also going up like crazy.
Open Open Technologies was going up like crazy.
And all of these other like AI and retail proxies and whatever hood that had that huge blow off top.
Like, bro, BTC at sub 10K, like these rallies.
There are worse problems out there in the world, bro.
Like AWS might not even work.
That's what I think.
Because you've never had like a multi-trillion dollar asset decline by 90%.
That's the thing.
BTC would be the first.
Yeah, 10K would be...
So what do you think would happen?
That means you're falling farther than your previous beer market.
I just...
I'm sorry.
I don't think we fall...
That's what makes it unpopular.
I think anything above 30k is now basically popular.
2023 prices would be unpopular. That's more or less sub 40k. Sub 40k 2023 prices, that would be super unpopular.
2022 prices though, I don't know. We're getting into really far. Look Naka said something like, you know
He wouldn't be that worried. I think it was that I think you said 25 right like where it's not
Yeah, you know a bit lower than I expected but it's fine. Well, let me give you just a
counter
Idea and maybe not for for someone like yourself, but in general
I think that that I I mean, look,
I would be really worried about that. If we go to 25, it's not just that I'm thinking more so for,
look, we talk about the global adoption. We talk about this becoming like a true
store of value asset, right? Bitcoin becoming the true store of value asset,, you know, in with that of a gold, um, how does an asset like drop 80%?
And I mean, we've seen it happen so many times, but, but as we're, you know, now getting into
like different financial instruments, um, it's having congressional hearings, right? Like global
adoption, ETFs, et cetera, that the asset now drops 80%.
I think that that's, listen, I think that's a really big issue as far as continuing this
global adoption or whatever the hell we want to call it. How are you going to get, you know,
people to be putting, putting this into their, and I know that a lot of them aren't, aren't allowed
yet, but you know, financial advisors being able to buy Bitcoin for their clients and putting it into IRAs and just, you know, storing it like a gold.
How I don't see how that happens if Bitcoin goes to twenty five thousand.
And again, I know that we're in the beginning.
We're still in the beginning stages.
Like the asset is what, 17 years old.
But it's I don't know, man.
I think that I don't think that that, that 25 is a,
is like an okay target. Yeah, this is so far, honestly, this is very normal. Usually,
you know, once the bull market's over, you get a second chance to buy the previous year's prices. So, you know, in 2022, we were buying 2020 prices.
And now here in 2026, it looks like we're going to have a long time to buy 2024 prices.
Could it go worse? Yeah, anything can happen, sure. But so far, this is what we're used to.
The moment we find a floor, dude, I think it's time to find, like,
that next token on-chain that does what Rollbit did at the bottom and Pepe.
So without looking up.
Let me ask Sully a question.
Let me ask Sully a question.
Sully, do you think we're going to have like a massive on-chain runner,
like a Pepe type after the bottom is in?
Or do you think that's going to like take a lot further into the cycle
and maybe we have to see majors actually appreciate a substantial amount
before that kind of unsophisticated capital comes back into the market?
Well, I will say I actually think, like, for one,
Solana going to zero is going to be, like,
the best thing that could ever happen to the on-chain market.
I think on-chain almost has to, like, reset cyclically
to where the primary, like, use case for it,
at least, you know, for a while is going to kind of go back to
DeFi if it is going to have like more speculative appetite in the future.
I think it's going to be a really long time before we see memes return in the same degree.
And I think, you know, a lot of them are just going to completely die alongside Solana.
But, you know, as far as like how I kind of think everything's going to end up panning out, you know, I've kind of thought for a while that crypto is in its like 2000, we'll say like 2004 to 2008 cycle, right?
Where, you know, you had all this optimism from the tech bubble, where it was very justified.
The tech was good.
And yeah, there was a lot of optimism. And in the second cycle, when we look at, again, 2004 to 2008,
you had just what was effectively just a debt orgy. And when it blew up, you know, obviously,
we went pretty deep. We went back to cycle lows. And then what did equities do for the next 15
years, right? I mean, they ripped 15 to 20x. So I kind of think that's what is going to end up happening with Bitcoin.
But, you know, the debt orgy that crypto has had this cycle is just it hasn't unwound.
There's so, so much supply above our heads right now that has not puked yet.
And, you know, if it doesn't puke,
I think it's just going to remain as overhang for the market.
So, guys, without looking at it,
how much do you think silver went down from its peak in 1980
to the bottom in 1991?
What do you think?
85%.
85? Any other takers?
Sounds about right. 85, 90 90. yeah 90. anyone else
say that again naka what'd you say about how much how much did silver go down
from its peak in 1980 to its bottom in 1991.
to its bottom in 1991?
You said without looking at the chart,
how much did it go down yet?
I'm going to say over 90%.
I didn't look at the chart.
I'm just assuming it's got to be...
It was about 93%.
It was 92%.
I had 90%.
That's what I was guessing.
There's quite a big difference between 85% about 93%. It was 92%. I had 90. That's what I was guessing. So, you know, and like, there's quite a big difference between 85 and 93, right?
That's like about a quarter of the move again, right?
Because when these percentages get quite close to 100, like marginal percentage points,
like the drop from 85% to 92%, that's a 50 percent drop right so yeah you can have multi-challowing dollar assets
but that's not the painful part the painful part is that bear market lasted 20 years
yeah but of course it's on a different it's on a different time scale right like you know
bitcoin will not have a 10-year bear market that's that's a pipe dream dude like that
was pre-internet like the the age of all right but how about your bear market how about post
internet silver's bear market from 2011 to basically nine years of down only and you still you know just when you
thought it was getting better then you got hit with uh covid in 2020 and you made a new low
yeah so i guess what i'm saying with that is like people are saying well bitcoin can't draw down like 90 as a multi-challender asset yeah i mean others others already have right so
i don't necessarily think that's likely i do think that eventually we get to like you know a
high 30s like bitcoin bottoms around 37k like i think that's where it goes i just think that the path there might be
quite nasty um are you gonna buy if you see like a four are you at least gonna nibble you're not
gonna get the exact bottom i mean i'm i might you know depends what else is going on i mean like the
the thing that's worrying me now as other people have said is you know like trad fi hasn't moved do you really think crypto is going to bottom
without trad five and moving at all i mean you know traffic is moving like but not much right
like i mean yeah a little bit but you have the darling if it was looking if it was at 38 000 right now would you buy it i would yeah
if bitcoin was at 38k right 100 100 yes absolutely but but if it was at 40 would you buy it
yeah was it 38 40 yes the thing is like suppose you wake up in the morning but that could happen
right would you buy it i mean my my reaction to that would be
it's probably going lower maybe i'd get maybe i'd deploy five percent there or something but
it's probably going lower so so where would you load up i think you would have to depend on time
as well as right now right now it happens right now in the next 30 minutes i mean current conditions
every you know everything that's going on right now
in the next 30 minutes if we got like 10k or something i don't know like the lower
but then you're not gonna buy it works right because like if it's gone to 10k in the next 30
minutes like is there being as a nuke gone off somewhere to make that what's happened to make
that happen right um it's not what's happened to make what's what's happened to make that happen right um it's not what's happened to make what's
what's happened to make what's happened over the last week season nobody huh it's finance
finance has been selling like crazy that's what's caused this
yeah i think i don't think you can put it at any one entity's feet
but i think it's basically binance selling you know buyer exhaustion um you know markets are
starting to risk off people worried about people worried about like a more um hawkish fed chair
and then binance has reacted to that by selling a bunch of bitcoin
like so you know that probably can't take us to 10k like to go to 10k today is like putin has set
off a new can ukraine that's the only thing that could go or like china has begun the invasion of
taiwan and if either of those things you actually probably don't want to buy bitcoin because it's
probably going lower so then i need you to step in here, man.
I'll just add, I don't think what we're seeing right now
is like Binance capitulating on solvency risks.
I think Binance is the first out the door.
Yeah.
So he's Jeremy Irons, bro.
He's Jeremy Irons in margin call.
Yeah, unfortunately, I think this is just a combination of a lot of bad news that, you know, just adds up.
You know, we can't catch a break out there right now, you know.
Yeah, look, I think that lenders are de-risking that.
I mean, that's clearly what it is.
It's like volatility.
It's too volatile for them and the cleanest and easiest way for them to do that is just to sell bitcoin
um there's a lot of different i mean it's a mix of everything right there's a lot of different
things that you could attribute it to but um look man i think we should have seen this coming
to, but look, man, I think we should have seen this coming. Whenever people start talking about
XRP going to 10,000 and taking over the Swift banking system, that's when you know that there's
a top. I mean, you're, people are saying like, oh, we haven't seen it in TradFi yet. We don't
see. I don't know about y'all but look
at the sell-off in gold and silver that's not that's not grandma you know that's trad fi that's
well that's going to keep happening players taking money out yeah and that's going to keep happening
like slv is probably primed to go back to you know the high 40s low low 50s. I don't want to say...
No, no, no. I think you're right.
At the beginning of the year, I said silver to 50, and I wasn't joking.
Matt, remember when we were talking about what would happen to markets if precious metals start correcting?
Yep.
It would mean it's over.
It's the safest.
It's the last thing to sell.
I honestly think we probably got to bounce in Bitcoin fairly soon.
I think this could easily be a local bottom because people are actually starting to be scared.
But I do think we eventually end up in the high 30s.
Like 35 to 40, I think, is a reasonable expectation for where this ends up.
I don't know how it looks there.
You just said this is probably the bottom right here.
Local. Local bottom.
I don't think it's the global bottom.
I think we're going to get a local bottom too. I think eventually we have to put,
you know, put in a green week. We're coming to the 200 moving average, like 58, 60,
like Evan was talking about. This range is really like the, back in the early, you know, early 2024.
This was that, this was that, you know, consolidation range before, you know,
the break to the next area, the 45 to 60.
So I definitely think we're going to put in a local bottom soon and start.
Man, we've had five red months back-to-back, which hasn't happened in eight years since 2018.
That's – geez.
Hey, Wabi. What'sez hey Wabi
what's up
bro we can't even afford
feeding a puro tropical today bro
I have to come up and ask a question because my anxiety
is kicking in bro
yo Mar you have to go to la cabella
I can't even afford
la cabella
you have to go in and just eat the bread,
the little basket of bread that they give you, bro.
You just went in there to have a glass of water.
They gave you the bread for free, bro.
Yeah, man.
Look, man, since we're guessing prices, I mean, I got a question.
If Bitcoin goes to $10K or $20K, I mean, what's going to happen to ETH?
You can answer that. But for me, the foundation of it all, my opinion, is 54K.
Bitcoin goes under 54K, it's time to get it. It's like no idea where it's going to go to.
So let's just, I don't know, maybe one of you want to get it cheaper, but I don't want to see it going on the 54K.
For me, that's like the foundation of the house, 54K.
And if it does go down to 15K, man, what do you guys see?
I mean, we could probably see easily five, six blue chips in the top 10 just leave forever.
Bro, bro, dude, I think MakerDAO gets liquidated if ETH goes below like 500 bucks, dude.
Yeah, I'm telling you.
Hey, Wabi.
If we go on the 54K, the Grand Cardones are going to be shedding their pants, bro.
I'm telling you, you do not want to go on the 54K.
Wabi, what happened to the guy that he joined last week?
He said he added another couple million to his short. I we're at all we're there now we're at those
you know what I just put something in the nest that's that guy was definitely
in this video if you guys remember seeing this video Has to man I I I post I'm gonna post a video up on the nest
It's a video from psyop anime. They do like
AI videos and all that stuff and they did a video with
CZ like calling and he's like
funds are safe
He's just laughing dude and the prices are going down
it looks like something out of jujitsu kaisen man you know um they're doing like a little serious
he's like lower lower in japanese and it's and it's crazy because that's exactly what's happening
man last week cz went on some, and he basically complained about being bullied and how he no longer believes in the super cycle.
And Price just followed.
I think he's pulling off an SBF.
Honestly, I think he needs to be voted out of the entire space.
I think his time is done. We need people like Roger Ver to come back, Andreas Antonopoulos.
Yeah.
We need some new grifters as well.
Maybe like a new Dan Larimer or something like that.
Remember him, Matt?
Dan Larimer?
Not Dan who?
He's one of the co-founders from ethereum and he helped out with eos and um
another project as well uh i forgot what it was called man but it was one of those 2017
all coins that went up like crazy outside of eos i forgot its name. But yeah, I guess, I don't know, enjoy the bear market memes, I guess.
And maybe from time to time, there will be like some small on-chain play that lasts for like two or three days.
But yeah, there's not really any exciting launches coming out in the crypto space.
But we've been going for about three hours.
So is there anything else that you guys want to talk about before I wrap up
the show?
Small caps,
Matt,
Snorlax,
Naka,
any last minute things that you guys want to bring up?
Anything that,
we didn't touch upon or anything like that?
Wabi,
what's going to happen now that,
Vitalik,
uh, was negative with L2s. What's going gonna happen with that mega what was it mega eath yeah mega eath i have no idea um but i know it's one of those like
multi-billion dollar valuation things and i don't know man i i don't know. I hope base doesn't go anywhere because it's actually a good place to trade in
when things get good.
But I think just I'm going to look at just hood bottoming out before buying
like spots or anything.
Man, I spoke to a banker friend of mine.
He said that these chains that are collecting $300 million and the ICO and those private sales, like, it's not even 80%, that amount.
That it's just complete horse bullshit.
And this guy follows.
I don't know where that money is.
His asset is the dollar.
This guy, he'll come up here and he'll fight with everyone here saying,
no, the dollar's king.
And he follows money, man.
And this guy's like, all that shit, not even 80.
They tell you they collected 300 million.
It was really 20 million.
Probably, man.
I think the Vitalik thing is bearish for all the L2s.
Because as I said at the beginning of this space, what Ethereum really needs to do is scale its L1. I think the Vitalik thing is bearish for all the L2s,
because as I said at the beginning of this space,
what Ethereum really needs to do is scale its L1,
and Monad has developed most of the technology for that. I think Ethereum's just going to steal most of the ideas from Monad
and do a little bit of state cleanup, state rent, that kind of thing,
which is the most recent Vitalik tweet.
If you look at his most recent tweet,
it's an ETH research article on how to clean up the state. And once they've done that,
all the L2s are fucked. So it's like really bad for them.
It's a mock app. Go ahead, man.
Yeah, I was just going to say, you know, because I've talked a lot about, you said,
wrapping it up here shortly. You know,'ve talked a lot about you said uh wrapping it up here shortly um you know i talked a lot about tech and ai ever since i started coming
on these spaces in the last month month and a half uh i know that david would completely just
disagree with me and and rip into me if he heard what i'm about to say but uh look um it's really
But look, it's really, it's rough out there right now.
I think that, you know, we've all said that tech and the market in general, but specifically
like tech, the hyperscalers, things look really overextended coming into 2026, which clearly
they are and absolutely, they do look overextended.
As far as like these mining stocks man like iron cipher
terra wolf clean spark they are i mean applied digital core we've just got absolutely destroyed
the ai infrastructure and i think that you know any sense of deceleration or deceleration more so
in like obviously capex and cloud growth we didn't get that in capex from the hyperscalers on this this earnings print but there there were some scares and like deceleration in uh
in microsoft's azure their cloud i think that any time that you're going to get a small sense of
that you're going to see these mining stocks well not mining stocks anymore right a lot of them are
are basically you know their moat is grid secured power for ai you're going to see them get crushed
um as far as like because it looks disgusting right now. A lot of these,
these names, they're back to their lows of December, uh, and even trying to,
if I may on that point before you, um, I think that's why, look, I'm, I'm, I'm bullish long-term
iron and Cypher and clean spark, but but the problem and we were talking about this earlier in
the week the problem with these companies is the vast majority of the revenue today is still mining
bitcoin and you just exactly you're you're exactly right you're absolutely right like they're still
beta to bitcoin and until they sign more deals and get more revenue and cash those checks from Amazon and Google and Fluid
Stack and et cetera, et cetera. Until they have more of those checks, I'm sorry, their bread and
butter is still mining Bitcoin and selling it or huddling it. And if Bitcoin's going down
10% to 20% week after week, you know the miners are going to go down more they they
have to it's just it's just math exactly yeah their margins their revenues everything's going
to go down look and like a month and a half ago or not a month and a half ago what two months ago
iron was uh you know mining bitcoin and making 70 000 a coin up sometimes $80,000 a coin, right? Spending 30
to mine it, selling it for a hundred. It's a good business. It, it, it provides cashflow to
bootstrap the AI build out and kind of just give you like a cash engine in very, very like high
intensive, intensive capital time timing right now, the big risk for a lot of these miners.
And I'm, and I agree with you, I'm very bullish long-term. Um, but the big risk for a lot of these miners and i'm and i agree with you i'm very bullish long term um but the big risk for them is the funding and the capital structure
they need to be able to be extremely transparent with their shareholders with regards to
debt versus equity versus jv without over leveraging themselves and screwing screwing
over the shareholders by diluting. So when you see
Bitcoin, they're a hundred percent tied to Bitcoin. Um, when, when Bitcoin is dumping like this,
it's going to affect revenues. It's going to affect cashflow. Um, and now, but further than
just Bitcoin, I think that if you want to give just a bullish spin on kind of what we're seeing
this week through the hyperscaler earnings and, you know, iron reported earnings today, they got another 1.6 gigawatt site.
Like they're one point, yeah, about 1.6 gigawatt.
Their total grid secure power is four and a half gigawatts, which is insane because that's not a development pipeline.
It's fully grid secured.
But nonetheless, right, the stock is getting getting tanked.
But nonetheless, right, the stock is getting tanked.
I think that the pullback is just, I just, in such a new industry with AI and this capex spending, I think the market got a little too far ahead of itself.
And it's now like repricing time, not opportunity.
They're not crashing because demand, or even if you want
to call it crashing, right? They're not correcting because demand disappeared.
Over the last 12 to 18 months, even up to 24 months, anything tied to AI, data center, power,
energy infrastructure, computing, it got priced like the future was here already. It got priced
like you're going to be able to deploy a million GPUs within the
next 12 months, which is just not what happened, right? Multiples expanded and expectations
sort of fast forwarded into the present and capital flooded into those same trades and those
same names. And it works until it doesn't. And we're seeing now that, look, the demand is there.
Hyperscalers, these guys are trying to scale as fast as they possibly can i think there's a little bit more of a um emphasis
on tpus especially with google that we saw in their in their earnings yesterday but that's for
another conversation i don't think it matters that much i think you're just we're seeing now
is multiples compressing not really revenues revenues collapsing. Because look at these hyperskills.
AWS had the, or was it AWS or was it just Amazon in general? No, I think it was AWS. They had their
best growth in 13 quarters. Same thing with Microsoft and Google. The earnings are crushing
it. They're out of the ballpark. I think i think that look rates are still restrictive and liquidity is not expanding um and the market is now market investors everyone's kind of asking like how long
until capex turns into cash flow right how long until capex turns into return on investment
and everyone was saying even myself i was saying the biggest thing in this earnings print for the
hyperscalers it's going to be uh guidance no guidance. No one gives a shit about revenues or EPS.
Obviously you do, but the big thing is guidance, um, and growth, like guidance and growth within
obviously their CapEx, but their AI and their clouds, their cloud exposure.
Um, and I think, look, the CapEx prints were amazing.
Every single one of them upgraded their CapEx way far further above what the estimates were.
But what people underestimated was the risk in how long until we start seeing some free cash flow from this.
So I just think that the AI infrastructure names, they sit in a really uncomfortable middle period where capex ramps up before utilization
and returns have to catch up right so it's kind of like it makes them very vulnerable in a risk
off tape especially when you have the core business model like the core revenue generator
core business model over the last however many years, six, seven, eight years as Bitcoin now really compressing and tightening its margin. It's just an uncomfortable
position to be in right now. The ones who are going to win are going to be the ones who
are able to finance, obviously execute secure power, make deals with hyperscalers,
but it's going to be the ones who have the more favorable debt terms and can just fund the correct way without leveraging themselves. I think, listen,
I think we've got to, I'm excited to come back to this conversation in like a year from now.
That's kind of how I really look at like the investments that I have in, in AI, specifically
AI infrastructure. But because like I have an audience on Twitter and like, I love the community.
I post about it all the time. Um, but at the end of the day, like it's a, you're betting on the future of
like digitizing and going into the cloud as humanity. That's kind of what it is, is as
cliche as it sounds. So it's going to take some time and there's going to be roadblocks and
look, man, NVIDIA was a hundred billion dollar company right before COVID. Like that's not very long ago, end of 2019
or even the day before COVID or I'm pretty, or around COVID, like the low of that time,
NVIDIA was a hundred billion, a hundred, 150 billion dollar company. They 45 X'd. Um, and they
had, and like, they literally have not slowed down one bit. I think this is a healthy correction. I
could be wrong. We'll see what happens, but that's kind of just really what I have to say on that on the matter wabi. Thanks for having me on brother great being here
great space and we need to uh
We need to reckon we need to mend the wounds with david because fuck man. He is drawing an audience
I mean this space is amazing. You guys are
Consistently getting 300 400 500 people in here, but but david is is growing and he's like he's making it fun but uh thanks
wabi appreciate you bro yeah no problem man no problem i'm gonna go ahead and wrap it up i want
to thank small cap matt naka mark david evan and everyone else who came up on the show and also
sully as well thank you all so much guys if this is your first time tuning in and you've been
listening to the show for the last three hours my name is wabi i go live here on the because bitcoin account monday through friday
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I see Trader XO in the audience, dude.
Wow, that gives me 2024, 2023 memories.
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