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Market Talk- BTC hits 106k and STOCKS make NEW HIGHS! UpOnly soon!?
Recorded: June 24, 2025 Duration: 1:14:40Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
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Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, wow.
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music oh What's going on guys welcome back to market talk brought to you by because bitcoin i'm your host
wabi and today we got a plethora of things to talk about the equity market continues to have
an incredible amount of volatility circle on a bit of a pullback i think
this is a a dip for ants to be honest especially the massive run that circle has had um hood stock
you guys know that stock is one of my top picks in the stock market over the last 18 months a new
high for hood stock a new high not new high but fresh local highs for the s&p at 6100 i think
we're about 30 points away from retesting uh the all-time high for the s&p that it set back in
january and man when that thing blasts through uh 6137 i think the exact all-time all-time high is
the bounce that we're probably going to see in
this market specific in the crypto market is going to be one for the bucks probably a new high for
btc um i'm just not sure if it's going to be a marginal high if we're act or if we're actually
going to blast through 120. we'll kind of wait and see um this pullback that we had on all coins over the weekend we're seeing
some alts continuing to make uh higher highs some things in the uh icm stuff that uh i'm quite an
enjoyer of i have just been ripping we're seeing some things on base also do uh quite well off of
those lows and as far as majors go it's gosh it's just chop city uh if it's eath soul and even hype at this
point locally hype has just kind of been cooling off in a little bit of a distribution pattern so
we'll see what majors give uh should the s&p actually rip into price discovery. We're also seeing some stocks like DoorDash rip face.
DoorDash.
I think DoorDash is up like 300% or something like that over the last six months, seven months, something like that.
Roblox is another stock that I've been eyeing.
I told the guys during the afternoon call to get support about that one.
Yeah, it's quite crazy, man.
People are shocked.
And people, if anyone is listening to this,
you would be shocked at the amount of gains that the equity markets have been giving
or will continue to give if you're bullish long term,
that the equity markets can give.
Circle 300% over the last couple of weeks.
If you bought during the IPO,
that was a 10x gain in less than two weeks.
Take a look at some of these majors on alts
in the top 20 outside of Hype and Pepe.
I think even Pepe is still down like 60%
from its all-time high, 70%.
Over the last six, seven months,
some of these stocks have just V-reversed and made new highs.
Coin stock, I think, has now matched its previous high from back in November.
And, you know, as I've said on this show, right, crypto gets this bad rap of having a summer lull.
And that's just not true. It's not a summer lull.
It's a ticker pickers market, right? Every summer, there's a select few tickers that always do well.
In the summer of 23, it was Rollbit, Unibot, Injective, Ox, Harry Potter, Bombasonic, Inu, Mog.
It's only a handful of alts, right?
And then last year, it was things on Soul.
Giga, Retardio, MooMoo, Punky, stuff like that.
And now this summer, it's probably just going to be a few select tickers on things on Soul.
Base and also Hyperliquid.
HyperVM has honestly blown my mind. Unfortunately, I missed the entire rally that it had from April all the way up until hype peaked at $45. But some of the names that
I've been keeping my eye on, and again, I won't really mention them because I'm not sure if
they're like Cycle Top, like some of the other Hyperliquid on-chain stuff that was rallying back in December.
Or if, you know, this is just a complacency shoulder on some of the bounces on HyperVM.
Because you do need Hype, the actual token of the L1, to make higher highs for some of these on-chain tokens on a new l1 to
continue to blast off so i'm being a bit cautious i am being a bit cautious but uh yeah some of the
moves man on that chain we're talking 30x's 40x's things that rallied from three four mil market cap
fair launched and everything and they ran to over 100 mil um i'm really bidding myself up for for missing out
on those things but it's just the nature of being a part of these markets right you have to choose
your pain you have to you know select the pain that you want whether it's the pain of missing out
whether it's the pain of not selling the top or selling too early one thing that we can all share
in common here in the crypto market is that at some point you will feel some kind of pain. So you have to develop a strong stomach,
right? An example of a strong stomach would be myself. Back in October, I saw AI-16Z. I was
doing my research on it and everything. And I saw that two mil market cap. I went to Whole Foods, got myself in a food coma, woke up the next day to Andreessen Horowitz. No, no. Yeah. Think of Mark Andreessen. Excuse me. Mark Andreessen bullposting AI16Z. And it goes from two mil to a hundred mil in a four hour candle.
our candle. And that's a pretty big move. But eventually, me and some of the guys in the
Discord rode that wave from like, I think it was 100 mil-ish all the way to almost two bills. So
missed the initial move, which was insane. But typically in a bull market, when all assets are
rising, pullbacks are for buying, even if you think it's too late, which is another thing that
I've been talking about here on this show.
We often see market caps and we think that it's too late if it's at 10 mil market cap,
which was insane, or even 200 mil market cap.
People think that they missed out.
But again, just take a look at the equity markets.
At some point, this market will have that liquidity. But just for now, we have to play with what we're given. And I understand
sort of the PTSD that people have when they play altcoins, because some alts could have the best
narrative, this and the other. They could have the cleanest chart, but they could always end up
topping out at 10 mil, 20 mil, 30 mil, right? Liquidity conditions right now in the crypto market
just haven't been as fruitful as equities probably since Q4 of 2023, Q1 of 24. And that's indicative
of the others BTC chart. As a matter of fact, if you look at others BTC, the rally that we had in Q4 of last year all the way up until early January was quite literally and figuratively just a complacency, a complacency shoulder.
We got nowhere near the highs that we were on others BTC from back in Q4 of 23.
And you guys remember that, right?
Everything and anything was pumping.
But nonetheless, not to make this a history class
or anything like that.
I see Cheds in the audience.
Big Cheds, man, if you want to talk equities, man,
I know you told me in DM that you have some stuff to share.
Feel free to come up, man.
I'm sending you an invite to speak.
I got Spread here.
I got Palos.
Maybe we'll have some other guys.
A lot of the guys that usually participate on these panels, they're going on summer vacation.
And that's just the nature of the game, man.
If you're in crypto at some point, you're going to have to take a vacation at least for like a week or two.
And summertime is a time where a lot of people in these markets, they tend to walk away.
And that's why you're seeing a lot of things in crypto not really have the same juice per se as, say, a Q4, right, or a Q1.
But typically, again, in July, you do see equity markets kicking at turbo.
And a lot of that liquidity comes from the big guys, the big market makers and all that.
And those people, of course, they're now playing Bitcoin.
So if we see some of those vantage harm flows go into Bitcoin, a lot of those guys making fees go on over to the crypto market.
You should see at least one more high on BTC.
And even on ETH, ETH actually looks pretty good.
One more short squeeze, you could see ETH going all the way up to $3,100, $3,200.
And again, it's usually in July where you have a lot of the flows,
a lot of the big supportive flows in the equity markets come back, usually
going into Memorial Day. A lot of the volume dies off in the stock market relative to other quarters.
And of course, over the last couple of years, stocks and crypto have been intertwined. I mean,
just take a look at the way Circle has performed or the way Hood has performed since those lows in April.
Hood has V-reversed like an altcoin.
It's kind of crazy, man.
It's kind of crazy.
And I remember when me and Matt, who's been a part of this show for multiple years now, were talking about Hood stock at $5 to $7.
And over the last 18 months hood
is up well over 10x and unfortunately we can't really say the same about these top all coins we
can't say that about eath can't say that about a link or an avax or anything or any of those names
really and again i understand it's it's indicative of the
liquidity conditions but I do think at some point once you see quantitative tightening end that is
likely when we can expect a lot of the breadth that we've seen in crypto back in 21 and in 17
come back but for now it's honestly just a coin pickers market. And I think if people are thinking about building long-term positions on assets, it's either Bitcoin or one of these crypto proxies like a hood, a coin, or Circle.
And Circle just happens to be my top pick.
The total addressable market for stablecoins is a hell of a lot larger than many companies that are IPOing or have IPO.
And I think the total addressable market for stablecoins is just as big as the precious metals market.
I think it can get as big as silver or even gold, honestly.
So, guys, I'm going to go ahead and get started with the show.
I got spread up here.
I got Chad's.
I got Paulo's.
I see Grant Cardone in the audience.
What's going on, Grant?
Always great to see you.
If you want to come up and give some of your thoughts,
if you're paying attention to any crypto proxies,
I understand that Cardone Capital recently acquired some BTC
onto the balance sheet.
You guys are the first real estate fund, the first REIT to have BTC on your guys' books, man.
So I want to congratulate you on that, man.
And yeah, we'd love to talk shop if you want to talk a little bit.
But we got Fred, Cheds, and Paulos.
We're going to go ahead and talk some shop.
But before we do that, guys, if y'all can go ahead and show some love to the space feel free to do that the best way to show some love is by clicking
the spaces tab then once you do that right above all of our profile pictures you'll see a nice
little link that says x.com slash I slash spaces I want to welcome you all to market talk once
again whether you're listening live or you're listening to the recording, I welcome all of you and appreciate you all for tuning in.
Before we get started, guys, smash up that like button.
Smash up that repost, that retweet button.
Smash it up.
Hit it up.
Whatever acronym you want me to use, go ahead and show some love.
Helps out with the algorithm.
Helps bring more eyes and ears to the show.
Brings more awareness to the brand
and of course doesn't take that much effort and i'd be uh much appreciative much appreciative of
that so um i want to get some thoughts from ches first before i kick it off to spread but uh
not sure how much uh time you have to talk to talk uh to talk some shop but look man we have the s p a few points away from all-time
high and uh you know we understand even if uh crypto is choppy over the summertime you could
have some breadth and even have fresh local highs uh for some of these tickers in the crypto market
whenever we see the s p go into price discovery, let me just say, man, that recovery that the S&P has had over the last two and a half months is vicious.
We're talking at this point a near 1,200-point move.
And just to put it into reference, ladies and gentlemen, for those of you that are asking, that are wondering what I mean by vicious move off of the lows, back in October of 22, the S&P bottomed out at around 3,400-ish, right?
I'm not sure the exact ticker, but it was around 3,400.
The S&P did not bounce to 4,600 until a year plus later.
It took the S&P well over 12 months just to repeat the same move.
And a move that took 13, 14 months in the equity markets a couple of years ago,
we're now replicating that in two months months which is insane you would think that money printers
are on you take a look at the s&p on the daily that that looks like the covid fractal it looks
exactly like the covid fractal so just want to throw some stuff out to the audience kind of
put some big picture stuff and also um throw some stuff to you chads and get
your get your thoughts but welcome brother how are you what's up wabi dude you sound really good
last time i talked to you you were i think recovering or something's going on yeah i had a
a respiratory infection it was quite bad man i was in the hospital that's right that's right yeah
good for you you're back in your feet yeah i, I feel great, man. All glory to God.
So, you said like the COVID in the daily, but not in the weekly, right?
Like SPY.
It's interesting. It didn't even touch the MA200,
like the long-term trend or the trend in classical charting.
The COVID dip, it actually went quite a bit below it.
So, the recovery, recovery yeah definitely incredibly strong the drop certainly was wasn't as big but the fight back
uh is impressive and it's it's um the news can get you down man the news can really keep you
sidelined you know because of uh a tweet or a story or something and it's the news is so
emotionally powerful but
i just find the price the most compelling if you know what i mean
yeah i i i get i get what you're getting at sheds
i mean look and there's so much i mean you i think you mentioned like equities i'm not even
really an equities guy i trade them i'm more of a crypto guy you know i
live and breathe that stuff but i mean like robin hood's unbelievable i think it's all-time highs
are pressing that coinbase is testing the 2021 high and uh like december 23 higher whatever it
is a coinbase really strong grinding higher micro strategy kind of looks to break out of its
tightening range i put a tweet out on it today. I think some people think Bitcoin is going to go
another all-time high here.
I think it's more of a consolidation.
It did that first sweep and recapture of 100K,
and I actually have it putting in a lower high here somewhere
and then continuing to consolidate.
It would kind of stay in line with the weekly picture,
you know, following that inside bar from a few weeks ago.
So we're doing a nice little consolidation.
Pretty mild thus far on Bitcoin, Wabi.
Yeah, my view on what you're saying, Cheds,
as far as Bitcoin is concerned,
if you take a look at, say, the 4-hour,
I think if we can get a push past that 107 area i think that can set us up for
a weekly close at say 109 110 which at the very least chads if we we kind of look at this price
action we're zooming it out it's it has a lot of elements similar to 23 and 24 where you know there is a chance that we could make a slightly marginal
high right back in july of 23 we made a marginal high by about three percent two percent compared
to the april high but we kind of need to get above 109 110 which is akin to the resistance that we had last summer at 71k if you remember
71k was huge resistance back in the summer last year i think we tapped it like three times yeah
yeah i know a lot of people were actually looking at that price range um on that last that last
deeper cut we had in bitcoin uh that ended you know, we found supported 75K, 76K.
A lot of people were looking 71, 72K, right, at that structure.
I just see them consolidating more.
I mean, I get you 107K, 110K.
I don't have as well, I don't really have strong feelings about exact overhead levels.
I'm just kind of looking at the price holdings like most of the move up
essentially a high and tight consolidation in the weekly can it hold 100k ideally and then kind of
what it does above i'm not so focused on for now the longer the better holding up here everything
will reset and then you can have a nicer move higher but um i actually think it would be healthier
to drop to like to drop to like mid 90s for bitcoin i think that would be healthier to drop to like mid-90s for Bitcoin.
I think that would be very healthy.
You want to get some panic to get a good move, right?
There just hasn't been enough juice, I think, to make a real push higher,
which is why I think we're going to continue to consolidate.
I think we can see that in August.
I really do.
August over the last few years i tell you the volatility that we
always have uh in crypto is insane since 2022 we've had these massive crashes that come randomly
in august and for whatever reason call it deja vu chads but the highs for crypto are always put in for the summertime
in mid to late july and we get a push then we get like a good push into november right
yeah and and everyone's always saying oh be careful of the the september drawdown the yeah
the september the september seasonality and it's like dude over the last few years
september has been up only after labor day it was up only we had one of the best September's in
crypto history last year and you know it it's just this cycle cheds it's just
been it's just been such a wrench for people that like to look at the four-year cycle and all that stuff
and sure let me let me ask you this brother okay do you ever look at uh macro charts like others
btc on the weekly or the monthly or stuff like that or generally no i generally have a philosophy
where i'm not spending muscle memory on something i'm not actually trading, right? So I don't look at
like the others BTC unless I'm going to open up a trade on that chart, right? I want to stick to
my watch list, the stuff I'm trading. I don't look at like pairs versus BTC, many of them,
because I know the Bitcoin chart. I know exactly where it is. I know where it is in the channel
versus the MA50 versus the bollinger bands and instinctually
when i look at any other chart i know if it's stronger or weaker than bitcoin and so i kind
of just developed the muscle memory to where i don't i just total three people talking about
support and the others there's no support there no one's buying or selling that chart it's a
reflection of the rest of the market and the market participants i think you should really
especially newer traders should avoid looking at that stuff and really just like look at like 10 charts good altcoin charts trade those
you know and focus and save your muscle memory for stuff you're trading um so philosophically
that's my style and that's why i generally don't look at stuff like that like i don't need that to
tell me anything i already know what the market's doing because i'm constantly scanning i constantly
have a sense of the healthiest healthiest altcoins how many of them there are what the market's doing because I'm constantly scanning. I constantly have a sense of the healthiest altcoins,
how many of them there are, what the volatility is,
what Ethereum's doing, Ethereum strength versus Bitcoin,
Solana, BNB, what they're doing, like whatever's hot,
hype, fart coin, whatever's hot right now.
And you keep an eye on that stuff.
I don't need like an index because I don't want to waste muscle memory on that.
But Bitcoin dominance, Chad. Bitcoin dominance today. Bitcoin dominance. need like an index because i don't want to waste muscle memory on that but bitcoin dominance
bitcoin dominance today yeah bitcoin dominance it's dominant brother bitcoin it's very 60 bitcoin
dominance hit 67 it's victor dominant what the fuck what is the arm it's true it's true
mr spread and ched you guys should arm wrestle man wrestle, man. Why? I don't want to lose that battle.
Man, Spread has been getting jacked, man.
If he's following your weight routine, I have no doubt about it.
Bro, when I train with Spread sometime in the future,
I'm going to need him to save some of the weights for me, man.
He's going to have to save some of the weights.
But Spread, what are your thoughts, man,
on this price action that we're getting in the equity market?
I really think people are underestimating just how massive the equity markets can perform and have some of that volatility come into this market as we've seen not only during previous summers, but really whenever the S&P goes into price discovery.
We kind of wait like a little over a week after the S&P gets into price discovery,
and then all of a sudden you see a massive gap up across the entire market.
But Spres, I want to welcome you up to the show, man.
Hey, Wabi. First of all, like Chad said, I'm really happy to hear you in a good tone.
You got us worried, but you know that I sent my help from across the pond.
So I'm really, really happy to hear that you're up and up and super healthy.
As for the markets, man, I don't know.
I don't even know how much more bullish can I be.
For me, all these tensions were a dance that I saw before.
You know, that I'm trading the equity markets for the last,
I think this October is going to be actually my anniversary
for 15 years since I'm trading FX.
And I don't get scared so easily.
And there are some signals whenever I see that panic
might be actually there. There are some signals whenever I see that panic might be actually there.
There are some signals that I watch for.
And when I saw that oil is actually selling off,
and I'm seeing some people who have no fucking idea what they're talking about,
speaking about oil, that oil is going to go to 100, 150.
For me, those were some big, big red flags.
Besides that, VIX was not spiking.
And all of these tensions in the Middle East, for me, were like a super big nothing burger.
And I'm very happy that there were nothing burger because we don't need more wars.
I mean, I always thought that wars are just some ambitions of some old motherfuckers who just send young people to die.
They should go to towards if they want to
still fight towards in this century that's that's about that but back to the equity markets i've
said i think that's a great comment thank you well i i cannot believe that humanity in 2025 still
kill each other i i thought that we're going to be better than that regardless of race religion etc
but uh moving on to the to the thing that we're speaking about today um i said some i think let
me double check when was that comment made on the 3rd of june so more than three weeks ago i said
that iwm is breaking out and i posted a long, long thread in which I found an
inverse head and shoulders actually on IWM, on Russell.
And I said, listen, if Russell goes above 200, 210, I think that was the level.
It's going to break about this big supply, monthly supply area.
And that was the neckline.
Once we broke it and now we retested it and now we're breaking higher.
We have about a potential target of about 15 percent
so not only that you know s&p 500 is just knocking on all-time high door nasdaq just printed an
all-time high as i think as of today almost we're there inches away and even down jones is pushing
towards there i don't know how people were even thinking to be bearish and with iw
coming from from a deep deep downtrend which lasted since november and now we just broke out
higher so after 190 days i don't know i don't know what was in people's minds thinking that
this is bearish and in any way so i was bullish on Bitcoin because I didn't notice any structural damage.
As long as Bitcoin stayed above 92, that was my line in the sand for higher time frame,
I would still be bullish and I would still look for, you know, longing opportunities on a bounce.
Under 92, I would flip neutral and under 74, I would flip bearish.
But we were nowhere near about like those levels so i was
full bullish on bitcoin plus on top of that i tried to post and you know raise some some signals
that the big boys are buying and what was the biggest sign that big boys are buying what they
were preparing to buy even after after the tensions in the middle east and during that weekend, I think it was this weekend, Tether printed $2 billion.
Two, not $1 billion, $2 billion. So more people sent, again, Swift transfers to Tether,
and they still printed. It meant that the guys were positioning for this.
IWM bullish, S&P bullish.
So let's just recap.
S&P bullish, NASDAQ bullish, Dow Jones bullish.
Dollar super, super bearish, like super bearish.
And I think this is just the beginning,
although we are dropping for many months.
I think we're going to continue to drop on the dollar.
And with IWM coming back from the grave,
from after like 200 days of a downtrend,
I really think that altcoins,
and it's about, I think, four to six week delay
between IWM rallying and altcoins rallying.
So I don't agree with this summertime chop.
I think Bitcoin is still going to have a good time.
It's still in a downtrend.
I agree with JEDS. On the daily chart,
you can see that we are in lower high, lower lows. But I really think that some people really got
super bearish and they're forced to chase higher or to cover now. So I think once we're going to
clear 107, we're going to push to a new all-time high. And after Bitcoin is going to range for a
little bit, we might see some sectors rally. I like what's happening i'm nowhere in any any type of defensive mode right now or looking to do anything to that
sort actually looking for some some of the tickers that i want along i like uniswap i liked even
before i liked the monero i liked SPX. It looks amazing.
I like hype.
I want to give props to Cheds.
We had some exchanges regarding Pepe.
And I was telling him that, in my opinion, it still looks good.
Since we had that exchange, it dropped.
But it didn't drop under my level.
So I'm still sticking to the theory that this still looks okay but since I had that exchange
with with Cheds it went lower so kudos to you man and I know that you guys spoke about coin
it's in I think Coinbase if you look at the chart since 2022 has one of the cleanest higher highs
and higher high highs and higher low structure on on any charts that you're looking at so Coinbase
looks good we started the ipo season
and people are bearish man good luck with that
and congratulations to grant for for acquiring a lot of bitcoin there good job grant
yeah man a lot of more uh people from trad fi and other businesses are probably going to accumulate uh
bitcoin and then eventually some other assets um but again these crypto proxies are are probably
going to front run a lot a lot of the all coin movement that we're probably going to see
sometime in q4 this year q1 next year but um But Evan, man, what's going on, brother?
I saw you requested.
Feel free to give some of your thoughts on what Chads and Spread have been saying.
I know you're a guy that likes to get a lot of his alpha through charts
and all that stuff.
So if you look at Others BTC, feel free to give some of your pitch
because when I look at stuff like Others BTC and ETH BTC, right, specifically probably ETH BTC, we can't really say that we're following other cycles if we are so depressed right now.
We can talk about, there's a lot of dilution and dispersion in altcoins, which I certainly
agree with.
But a lot of that dilution and dispersion, I'm not really going to count that in the
altcoin market cap, because for the most part, it's really just the same batch of liquidity
pumping and dumping altcoins on chain to 30 and 50 mil, and then they just get rugged.
So I feel like when others BTC starts to the bottom out i think that's when we can
kind of reflect and say all right what happened the last time others btc hit this level and as
we saw with eth btc i think eth btc went all the way down to its levels from 2019 and then right after it hit those levels ethbtc rallied 50 in a couple of days and
we all saw what happened to countless altcoins even on solana we saw 10 20x gains across the board
and we saw things like launch coin going from 10 mil to almost 400 mil market cap
and in a week and a half absolutely insane price price action. But what's going on, man?
Welcome back to the show, brother. Yeah, you know, thanks. Always a pleasure to be on. Yeah,
I mean, I look at all those charts. And the first thing that I'll say, I mean, obviously,
Bitcoin versus others, that's like the main chart when you want to look at like for your cycle and
like want to bash it because it bottomed around the end of 2016. Then it bottomed around the end
of 2020 in the first cycle. And now we're just in no man's land and we're still going down.
And I mean, the main explanation for that is that, you know, most people would tell you,
and I think it's true, at least to a certain extent, is that you need better monetary policy.
You need the Fed to end QT. You need more rate cuts. The other thing too, usually you have ETH outperform Bitcoin
and outperform all the alts for a good amount before you really see the alts outperform Bitcoin.
It's a little bit different every cycle, but if you compare it a little bit more to kind of
2017, I mean, 2017, that was just, you know, a crazy time where everything went to the moon.
But the big version of that where people actually knew about stuff and people actually got in and things went up a lot was mainly in quarter four of 2017.
It was a little bit different. It was earlier in 2021 with the first cycle.
So I think it would be. And now you have a rate cut, a rate cut in terms of betting odds, September, October, December.
So in all logic, and the same thing happened last year, you had a rate cut in September last year
as well. And you saw kind of a mini altcoin season in quarter four of last year. In all logic,
you would finally see alt-tapp perform Bitcoin and alt-tapp perform Ethereum in quarter four.
Now, when you look at the other chart that I like to look at too, is ETH versus
others, ETH versus others. And that looks very bottomy if you look at ETH versus others. And I
think that you're probably going to see ETH outperform others and ETH outperform Bitcoin as
well until September, until you kind of get to that point. So it's really that big, big ETH season
right now. And so, I mean, for all all coins when you look at like that total three
versus uh bitcoin total three minus tether versus bitcoin i know ben cowen likes to look at that
that chart that could go down farther maybe another 15 20 down so it's absolutely possible that
a lot of all coins will bleed another maybe 10 to 20 against bitcoin while you have ethereum
still outperforming bitcoin So it's just a big
Ethereum push right now. That's what the technicals would tell you. I mean,
ETH versus Bitcoin still looks very good when you look at ETH versus Bitcoin. I believe that's in
kind of forming a reverse head and shoulders right now. It's gaining big support right now.
And this could jump up quite a bit more. When you look at ETH itself, now here's the big thing that
we got to look at. It looks pretty
good in some of these lower timeframes. Hitting a big point, our old volume area low, which is
right at 2,400. Now, if we can kind of hold that area, then theoretically, out of the new kind of
pattern we just formed since June 20th in the last few days, your technical target would be a breakout
up to like 2,800. And then theoretically, you got another technical target all the a breakout up to like 2800 and then theoretically you got another
technical target all the way at 3200 um if you can get there now that would be pretty crazy but
eeth does move in quick motions it would not be impossible to get there within call me crazy but
the next two weeks you may be able to get to that 3200 before you get a pullback back down or
something along those lines so that's what i'm kind of viewing right there and that would kind of equate to maybe 115 120k for bitcoin if you're viewing
kind of this iran thing it's kind of an unpredictable event that caused some fear and now we're kind of
past that we've got new all-time highs for traditional markets that would generally equate
to that going up so to kind of summarize last thing i'll say here is you know i think it's
each season for the next three months i think quarter three is generally going to be ETH season.
I think ETH outperforms Bitcoin and ETH outperforms the vast majority of alts in quarter three.
And then you finally, finally get your really good alt season in quarter four.
I like to say, you know, some analogy for altcoin season right now is, you know, if you have a BB gun and one of those old pump daisy BB guns and you keep pumping it up so much. You can make that thing really powerful.
That's what's happening.
The longer the Fed takes to NQT, the more you're pumping up the gun.
And then once you fire it in quarter four, September, October, November or December,
I should say, I forget what you mean, but that's where it goes big for your all coin
it goes big for your all-point season.
season.
So I think that's the most likely scenario here.
Hey, man.
Talking about ETH season.
Chill.
I'm sure that gets you excited, brother.
What's going on, bro?
Excuse me, bro.
I don't got coughed.
Chill, what's going on, man?
A lot of cool things on ETH
on the AI side
are catching some breath ray one of
the strongest outperformers from the bottom i know you follow avm as well uh virtuals huge bounce
off the bottom as well and in regards to ai brother things on solana as well things like
cled one of the biggest outperformers off the bottom.
If ETH is going to outperform,
man,
as it has against other majors,
then we want to pay attention to strength amidst the majors weaknesses,
man.
So I think we can see some,
some pretty big moves,
bro,
but what's going on,
brother.
Good to have you back on.
Hey,
appreciate you bringing me back again,
man.
Good to be on as usual. Yeah. I mean,
looking at ETH, it looks primed, looks ready. And I'm really looking at, I love Ray. Ray's
actually held up really nice despite like all the war FUD, just kind of, you get a sense of,
you get a good sense of what the holders are like. You know they're not just in it for the quick.
They're in it for the long haul.
So that was really encouraging to see on something like Ray.
Same thing with tickers like KIDA, for example.
I know this panel, the BB fam is pretty bullish on Kida.
I really like that.
That was also one that was really good off the bottom.
But yeah, just overall, the ETH ecosystem looks good.
I'm really looking at, I am really looking at Solana.
I guess it just depends on the type of trader that you are, right?
Like if you're looking for kind of these longer term projects
that kind of bring forth some innovation,
you can go for things like things that are on ETH, base,
a lot of the AI tickers, virtuals,
and you have a few others, Ray,
Serve, Kida, things of that nature.
So those are good for like these longer term holes.
I'm really also excited about Solana on chain as well.
We saw this trend happen over the course of this cycle where Bitcoin would pump and then the volume would
straight up activate on chain, on Solana specifically. And I don't think that trend
will ever stop. I think as you see, things like ETH, like Bitcoin continue to grind up.
And ETH will also open the door for other altcoins as well. So things like Solana, Aave, Curve, Sui, we see Say also had a really good bounce off the bottom.
We're seeing a lot that volume on chain within that ecosystem.
So I'm staying frosty here.
I'm just continuing to watch, put my feelers out, stay active.
I think the next month or so would be really telling. The next two weeks
would be really telling for the market. But even more so, the next FOMC. I know
Powell is saying, we're not going to raise rates. We're not going to raise rates. Or rather,
we're not going to cut rates. We're not going to cut rates but uh increasingly we see you know other uh others
within the fed um you know kind of talk about that you know cutting rates you're not you're not you're
not in july chill no zero chances zero i'm like today okay not zero because i don't want to be so
strict but i would say three percent chances today five. Today, as the bond market is looking, the short end, under 5% chances that they cut in July without a major crash happening or some major disruption. Just want to add that here.
got you got you interesting interesting um well i mean let's see what the liquidity what the rate
cutting situation looks like in july um you know personally i i kind of have this idea that we'll
kind of like make this marginal uh all-time high and it'll play out like a like a deviation above
the range and before we come back in. Because really, Bitcoin's been
in this large range between 91 and 110K. And while we did make a new all-time high in a few months,
I think a month ago or so, it was just marginal. It was just a peak, it was just a deviation above and we came back in.
So I'm wondering if we're going to develop this kind of range on the higher side of this bigger range, right?
So instead of the bottom of that range being 95, the bottom being kind of like 100, 101K,
and we just kind of chop in between there before ultimately going for higher,
especially when there's uncertainty around things like rate cuts and stuff like that.
I definitely think that we're headed to new all-time highs.
Definitely bullish on the coming months, the rest of this year.
I'm on record saying that I believe we go well into 2026.
I'm on record saying that we're, you know, I believe we go into well into 2026.
But just on a shorter term timeframe, you know, I'm not, I think there's still a lot
that there's a few things, not a lot, but there's still a few things that we have to
work through, especially on the liquidity front before we just, you know, absolutely
melt up.
And I think one of that will be just kind of like a peak above,
a peak above an all-time high, maybe let's say 115K,
and before coming back down and, again, forming another range
before we go higher.
So either way, expecting there to be a lot of opportunity, like I said,
you know, for active traders and then a lot of opportunity, like I said, you know, you know, for, for active traders.
And then a lot of DCA opportunities for, for those that are kind of just hodlers on a higher,
on a higher timeframe.
Paulos, man, let's get some thoughts from you, brother.
How are you feeling, man? I know you're a, you're an ICm enjoyer um just just like chilling myself bro how are you feeling about the market and uh welcome back from your vacation man hey wabi uh thanks for having
me again and uh yeah also glad that you're feeling better um but yeah i mean i was i was uh in italy
last week just enjoying while uh was looking pretty bleak.
And then I came back and I just started deploying quite a bit again this weekend.
I'm feeling pretty good. thesis that we might chop around a little bit during the summer, but I think that alts might
still have some moves. The fact that the S&P is about to touch all-time highs again, and I'm
pretty sure that Trump's going to enjoy talking about that and flagging that all over the place.
And I think that's going to create a little bit more activity across the board.
I mean, we're seeing some of these charts in equities.
It's just incredible.
And I came to the conclusion today, just like reading a bunch of takes on CT about,
oh, the bull market is in equities.
It's not in alts.
And I kind of came to the point today where I think we're getting pretty close to this alt bottom.
Obviously, we have a few that have done decent,
but I do think that things are going to start heating up
pretty soon on chain. Um, yeah, like, uh, obviously, you know, you know, some of my
favorite picks there, um, huge hype bowl. I like SPX 6,900 as well. Um, I'm, I'm still kind of holding some ICM stuff and LaunchCoin.
I think there's still some action that will happen there once the environment improves
and they still have to kind of iron out some kinks with that whole model.
But again, I think they have a decent crew around this.
And my thesis there is really around Pump.
When they launch, at their market cap, unless these guys from LaunchCoin truly shit the bed,
these guys from launch coin truly like shit the bed the the gap will just be way too big between
pumps evaluation and and launch and what i like with launch compared to other ones you know other
launch pads is that it has a clear clearly defined like segment that they're going after, which is very different than all the other ones
that are more like on the meme side. So, um, and you know, I don't know, my personal biggest
successes that I've had is these like, uh, you know, utility metas that pop around, you know, last one obviously being the AI agent stuff.
I tend to grasp those kind of narratives really well. So yeah, that's why I'm just keeping
close eye on that and just being patient, like really just being patient in it but i do think that there's going to be
another serious leg coming up whether that's um closer to q4 but this is the time when you wanna
you wanna like keep an eye and you wanna dig and and and kind of learn about different projects
because in a couple months you might look back and say,
holy crap, I had so many opportunities to buy XYZ,
and there are multiples higher now when things are frothy.
So, yeah, man, that's basically my general take for the moment.
I like that you have that focus on ICM. I just pinned a tweet to the nest. The ecosystem, I think now, yesterday when I wrote this, it was the ecosystem market cap for Believe was 200 million. I believe today it's like 230. But I do believe that we're headed to probably 5 billion plus.
But I do believe that we're headed to probably 5 billion plus.
I know LaunchCoin, they just onboarded someone huge to bring some startups from Silicon Valley and kind of start to onboard some of these builders.
And basically what they're using is it's the same thing. Like the startup is the exact
same. It's still a company that has a lot of potential, that has real revenue, that has a
real product that will have real users. It's just the rails that they're using is different. Instead
of going to VCs and kind of pandering to VCs, they're using they're using crypto rails via believe to essentially take advantage
of this sort of global this global pool this global pool of money that they can that they
can raise they can raise funds from and it it's not just, these projects are different.
Some of them are these Silicon Valley startups.
Many of them already have a working product
and they're really just integrating a token.
Some of them are using tokens as points
and things of that nature.
So there's a lot of experimentation happening
within the ecosystem, but it does remind me of June 2023. And if anyone was here...
Go ahead, go ahead, Joe. Go ahead.
Yeah, if anyone was here in June 2023, and I'll make this, I'll wrap up here in a sec.
June 2023, Unibot launched. And if anyone was here, you remember kind of TGBot meta, etc.
You know, Unibot went from 100x, it went from, you know, below 100 mil to, you know, well over 250 mil at an all time high.
And that kicked off this large, you know, quote unquote, utility season on Ethereum. Now, a lot of these
projects on Ethereum, they didn't last. They sounded fundamentally, you know, sound at first.
But, you know, compared to a lot of these ICM projects, they simply do not hold,
you know, they don't hold a candle to what these ICM projects have to offer. Real revenue, real billion and trillion dollar companies that are involved, people like NVIDIA, billion dollar companies in China, by, you know, real fundamentals, fundamentals that would be akin to what you'd see on the stock market.
So I'm starting to look at Believe as this sort of kind of crypto side NASDAQ, if you will, essentially just using crypto rails to not only raise money, but also use it as a, you know, several different ways,
whether they're using the blockchain tech for, you know, rewards or, or, or what have you,
or as a, as a means of like sharing revenue with an art with a community. But there's a lot of
different ways these projects are coming, or rather a lot of these a lot of different ways
these projects are using the crypto side.
And I think it's going to be in a very different place here in a couple months.
Just like Unibot kind of put the utility season on the map,
I think something within the Believe ecosystem will do something similar
and essentially shine a light on, you know, what huge projects there are, because
I believe these projects rival some that are in the top 250.
I agree, man.
Totally agree.
Like, there's even been a lot of posts recently from like non-crypto guys that are in Silicon Valley that are talking about the fact that startups need new alternative
ways of funding. And this is already happening, like not even referring to what Believe is doing,
but just like they're realizing that the old VC model is not fit for especially these more, I guess, modern AI-based projects that sometimes are extremely lean.
And these terms just don't make sense for every single project out there, depending the market they're in and the structure,
et cetera. So that's already a theme that's been going on for a while. And I can hear getting
louder and louder. These guys from Believe have Nikita and Alliance and these guys that have an insane amount of clout and connections in that world.
I saw Alexis Ohanian commenting that he wants to launch something.
And I think that they have a pretty solid batch of projects
that they've just been holding off from launching
before they put in place some of this, you know, the flywheel part and a
few other pieces that they're trying to implement before they go full throttle.
So obviously, you know, some of these charts have been a little crazy recently and there's
a lot of experimentation and you just got to be patient with these kind of plays.
But I do think there's a lot of experimentation and you just got to be patient with these kind of plays. But I do think there's something there.
They just have to keep refining the model.
And, you know, of course, there's going to be a lot of like crap that comes out too.
But I mean, if you look at Pump.Fun, like literally 99% of coins coming out every single day are also pretty, pretty crappy.
And they still have a very sound profitable business.
So like I think,
I think we just got to be patient and,
and see,
see what comes out of it over the coming weeks and months.
I mean,
I'll go,
go ahead,
man.
Go ahead.
I was just going to say that, I mean, that makes sense.
Crypto is, you know, experimental by nature, right?
Like you need a sort of like proof of concept first,
and then experimentation will follow to kind of build on that.
You know, that happened with Bitcoin, then, you know, Ethereum,
and then altcoins broadly.
You know, that happens over time.
And I think that's exactly what we're seeing here
with Believe.
You saw kind of Pump Fund be the proof of concept
as far as a launchpad.
But obviously there was the appetite
for those types of projects
that were mainly meme coins, et cetera. Isn't sustainable, isn't really what we're here for in crypto.
And then you have this kind of shift when there's competition that kind of forces the market to look at something different.
That's what Believe is.
And essentially it kind of forced Capital to look at stuff outside of memes on Solana.
And I still think that a lot of people think that Solana is just mainly a casino.
That's mainly the comments that I get half the time.
Solana is a casino.
All Solana has is meme coins, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. When in reality, there's a lot of different
things at play within the ecosystem. And now arguably it will be very ironic and very funny
if, you know, from the meme only chain, quote unquote, you have some of the best fundamental projects that come out. And, and we, we see the early innings of that. And I,
I believe that as you know, the, as the belief team continue to create these
guardrails, things like, you know,
depositing fees earned into a bank account as a pro as opposed to just like a
wallet, right? To help.
There's guardrails there.
There's guardrails around the types of projects that they build, that they bring on and that
they launch.
They have filters for the founders that they work with.
And I believe they just onboarded someone recently that was a pretty big name in the in kind of trad fi
traditional you're talking about keenan i'm talking about keenan from k5 yeah um yeah i i like what
those guys are building man um at some point like a lot of the people within crypto they have to
understand that if you're bullish on this market long term, you need something more than just another meme coin.
You need something more than just another meme coin with the same guys blasting it to 50 mil or 40 mil.
And then it tops.
And all you have is a bunch of bag holders and people making shitty memes.
And it is what it is, man. Like like we had Pepe which was an anomaly but
the only way crypto actually makes significantly higher highs from its previous market cycle is
always through fundamentals man whether people want to admit it or not. And just to paint a picture, right,
if you look at total, where total peaked out last cycle, inflation adjusted, we're not in price
discovery. We haven't made a new all-time high of inflation adjusted for total crypto market cap,
but there is still a ways to go. And, you know, people can pump out as many
memes as they want going to 50 mil, but it's not going to take us to four trill market cap, which
is where the actual inflation adjusted high for total is in respect to the high that it hit in
November of 21, which was at three trill or're pushing three trill so there is there is a ways
to go man and we we need some blue chip to come out um on chain that can pull off uh a pepe or a
hype right um i understand polymarket has their tge sometime in q3 i think they're almost done
with their product um that could be another hype-type play
where it comes out at a pretty high valuation.
People think it's shit,
but it's one of the most used products.
Polymarket is one of the most used products.
Hyperliquid is one of the most used products,
and it pulled off a 10X.
So I'm hoping we get some fundamentals,
and my bet on LaunchCoin, my bet on ICM is a bet on on-chain,
not just like dying out and being memes.
But we'll see what the market gives, man.
But I'm going to go ahead and wrap up.
Paolo, spread, chill.
Also, Chads, thank you all so much for coming on.
We'll see you all tomorrow
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nothing is possible so thank you all so much god bless you all we'll see you all tomorrow take care
bye-bye Gracias. I don't want to be, I don't want to be me.
I don't want to be bigger than more I'm going to be here.ん ああああああんん
わらかいな
ん I'm going sorry. I'm so sorry. I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry. I'm so sorry. I don't wanna be, I don't wanna be, man! I don't wanna be, man!
I don't wanna be, man!
I don't wanna be, man!
I'm pretty sorry, huh?
I'm just gonna mess with the line
I'm gonna be looking at the house, just a day
So we put it, so you can follow up
Just see what it is Se não for lá. O que acontece? I'm going to go. What a What a What a
What a
What a
What a
What a
What a
What a
What a
What a
What a
What a What a Thank you.
