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Market Talk- BTC HITS 74k!? ALT SEASON?! 80k SOON?! BOTTOM IS IN?!
Recorded: March 16, 2026 Duration: 3:59:54Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. . Thank you. Music hey
the the the the the the the the
the the
the the
the the
the the the the the Okay.
I'm on the way. Dying up the way.
I wanna breathe.
Dying on the sky.
Rise.
I wanna be loving my soul.
I wanna be loving my soul.
Rise. Rise. Oh, thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Oh, yeah. you carry on
I I I'm gonna do it. All right. music Okay. Thank you. . Oh you
Die Let's go! Yo, what's going on, guys?
Evan, what's up, brother?
What an incredible start to the week. We have majors hitting fresh range highs.
Hyperliquid hitting new year-to-date highs.
Sandisk in price discovery.
Micron in price discovery uh nibius in price
discovery and man um the s p up one percent today and uh i mean i'll be honest this strength that
crypto has had against equities over the last uh week or so has been quite well but i'd still want to see uh btc smash the yearly open same thing
with eth eth up 10 plus percent today it just seems like all coins are showing insane strength
against bitcoin but again i'm still trading with caution here i'm still trading with caution i'd
rather see the yearly open get flipped.
And then you probably see a bunch of on-chain runners going ballistic.
Over the last couple of days, over the weekend,
I fell down the BitTensor subnet rabbit hole.
Not necessarily the outperformance that Tau itself has had, as Hyperliquid has been outperforming Tau year to date.
It's more so Tau on-chain, which honestly I did not even think that there was an on-chain market for Tau.
But I guess I was completely wrong on that you
just buy tau and you bridge and there are all these tokens that actually have liquidity in them
so i don't know if tau has a pullback uh to i don't know say 250 or something like that, I'll probably go on-chain.
Because anytime you have an L1 token pulled back,
on-chain just gets absolutely decimated and destroyed.
So I guess Tau is a major to watch out for.
Well, it's not really a major.
I think it's in the top 50.
I think it's ranked 40 through 50, something like that.
But we also have Pepe up 20% today.
And I think memes are like the sector
that are having most of the bounce today.
And you also have AI, that is uh the two sectors that have just
been outperforming over the last few years it's typically ai and memes and as far as alts that's
mostly what we've discussed here outside of um hyperliquid and you guys that have tuned into
this show over the last few weeks will know that Hyperliquid is something that I have just been pounding the table on.
We also caught that move on Sandisk before it went into Price Discovery again.
I thought I was late on being enthusiastic on Nibius, but that's in Price Discovery.
I thought I was late on being enthusiastic on Nibius, but that's in price discovery.
And truth be told, I don't even know what the hell Nibius even does outside of just some AI data center stuff.
And I found out about that through what's his name?
Bitcoin AI guy.
And yeah, it's in price discovery.
While the S&P is still, I think, about 4% to 5% below its all-time high.
Actually, I think it's like just under 4% because of the good close that we had to start off the week.
And I'm still hesitant to say that we're just going to blast into price discovery. As far as crypto goes, I just have this feeling that Kevin Warsh, the moment he gets in, there's going to be some sort of downturn.
But I'm not going to be positioned at any shorts or anything like that. to accumulate as much hyperliquid as i can and just making these small trades on chain or
and the equity markets um and in equities the volatility that we're experiencing is
almost the same as all coins like you take a look at stuff like nibius and and iron and they're up
Like you take a look at stuff like Nibius and Iren, and they're up roughly the same amount as some of these alts like an ETH or a Solana, a Hyperliquid.
Link is also up 8%.
Zcash is up almost 20%.
Pepe is up 20%.
And this is the same kind of volatility that we're seeing in some of these names and uh
in the equity markets and if you were to tell someone say four or five years ago that um
stocks would have just as much volatility as all coins to both the upside and the downside
as much volatility as altcoins to both the upside and the downside,
more so the upside and the recovery that they can have,
they'd look at you like a crazy person.
And that's why I've been really enthusiastic about hood over the last few years
because you're able to cross that bridge between equities and and crypto and at about hyper liquid as well
you're able to cross that bridge between both asset classes and um I also do like um derivative
as well for an options play and uh in crypto we were talking about that one on uh on Thursday and
um it did have a nice pullback over the weekend, and now it's just back up to range highs.
And when you talk about options versus perps and just the volume on the options market in equities, I think crypto can fill a slight gap.
Just as Hyperliquid closed a slight gap when it comes to things such as perps and stuff like that.
But it's not really something that's super liquid.
To be honest, crypto options, most of the volume happens on Deribit, which is closed off to many markets globally.
Most of the volume happens on Deribit, which is closed off to many markets globally.
And the options market on-chain for Deriv isn't really the best either.
So it's still very speculative.
But with that being said, man, I think if we can have a weekly close above the uh above uh 76k which i believe was our march high uh our march low excuse me our
march low of last year i i think we can have that squeeze that i've been talking about upwards of uh
85 to 89k and uh that should bring alts um to a substantial amount of breadth where not only do you have memes and AI also pump, but some of these other newer sectors like crypto options or things like Hyperliquid.
And when you think of stuff like Hyperliquid, you might see it all over your timeline.
But the reality of it is Hyperli hyper liquid is barely two or three years old
barely um and i think the token is isn't even a year and a half old the tge on thanksgiving weekend
um thanksgiving weekend or the week after at like two dollars and change so it's not something that has been around as long as a solana or an
ethereum um but it has gone through an attack you had that you had that um attack that binance tried
to do on hyperliquid a lot of uh furn that Hyperliquid had all the way down towards $8.
And here it is now.
new flows incoming just to buy commodities, whether it's silver or gold or energy-based
things like oil.
And we've been talking about energy on the show as well.
And I'm not sure how that trade is going to fare against things like tech.
I think when you still have such strength in tech and you're seeing things in price discovery again,
I think perhaps the energy trade might be on pause until you have that next big top for Sandisk,
which perhaps is probably somewhere between 750 to 800 something like that
um and funny enough man speaking about sandisk um i was uh at the gym the other day like last week
um and i saw a sandisk commercial play on one of the TV sets.
And I'm like, damn, these guys actually do marketing.
It's quite insane, man.
But either way, that's kind of my opener, guys.
I got to go see Evan up here.
Before we get started, i want to welcome you all
back to market talk brought to you by bb my name is wabi and uh we're gonna cook on today's show
there are plenty of things to talk about before we officially get started guys if you can do me
a small tiny favor if you guys can go ahead show guys can go ahead, show some love to the show,
show some love to the stream.
Best way to do that, guys, is by clicking the Spaces tab.
Once you guys do that, right above our profile pictures,
you'll see that nice link above that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
Hit the Like button.
Hit the Retweet button.
Brings more awareness to the show, to the brand, and all that good stuff.
And we're going to go ahead and yap give some alpha zach i'm gonna send you an invite to speak same thing um
with you o'hare i do see one request um but i'm not able to see who it actually is those spaces might be lagging which i hope really is not the case man because
the volatility in this market is uh about to get incredible in my opinion especially if we do have
the squeeze that i do think um is going to come regardless if things still look bad on a weekly and monthly time frame
in between whenever we start ranges ranges after a big vol event to the downside the squeeze could
actually be juicier than expected but either way spaces are recorded I'm going to pass it on over to Evan.
Zach O'Hare, sending you invites again.
But either way, Evan, what's going on, bro?
How was your weekend, man?
Welcome back, brother.
I'm sure this volatility is keeping you entertained.
And, you know, I'm aware that the year preceding the pre-halving year is
usually bearish. We take a look at 2014, 2018, 2020, many people are throwing fractals out there.
And if we look at months such as March, 2022, 2018, those are the only data points that we can go by.
But, I mean, they're usually quite bullish the year before the pre-halving year.
And right after March, it's usually just a death spiral.
But there are still many other things as well that we can honestly say that, all right, the market's probably bottomed.
And I think the only scare would be just war.
And that is something that you can't really prepare for.
I'm sure you've seen people that only dabble in equities.
not only dabble in equities, smart people, right?
Smart people, right?
Because when you write Doom, obviously you sound smart
when it's a downtrending market.
Same thing when everything goes ballistic.
Everyone that writes all these threads and does all these charts,
they seem like geniuses, right?
Like Murad was a genius when memes were going up for a few months during 2024.
I think it was from September all the way to November.
That's like the bulk of the move from SPX 6900.
And he was seen as a genius.
He was going on like news stations.
He's being interviewed left and right on spaces every day.
And so everyone is a genius in a bull market and everyone is a genius in a
bear market. You just say up, up, up, up, down, down, down, down. But hardly do you see any clear
signal, right? Like when it's a bull market, what is the outperformer? In a bear market,
what is the outperformer to the downside like what what did
you do like what asset did you long or short that's that's where i think alpha um comes from
because anyone can just say all right it's a bull market it's all going up all right cool just
just throw a dart but we all know um since bitcoin bottomed out that just throwing a dart at any altcoin just because Bitcoin is going up isn't really the best, right?
Things like Chainlink did not outperform Bitcoin from the bottom.
I don't even think Doge outperformed Bitcoin from its low i i i do not because doge i remember doge did not truly truly
bottom out um until 2023 believe it or not until august of 2023 it bottomed at six cents um and
then it peaked at like 42-ish cents.
So that's not even a 10x where there's Bitcoin.
Bitcoin almost did a 10x from the low.
And not many alts from the previous cycle did that outside of Solana.
So it's not like you could have just thrown a dart because Bitcoin's bottomed out.
And you think X altcoin that's been around for some time is going to outperform it.
It was a very rotation-based cycle compared to others where you could have just thrown a dart at things that were trending.
And Link was forming partnerships left and right.
They were partnering up with everyone.
They were using their Oracle with so many TradFi companies and right. They were partnering up with everyone. They were using their Oracle with
so many TradFi companies and everything. You would honestly think that Link would be trading on par
with something like a Sandisk, for example. And Sandisk is over 10 billion market cap and Chainlink is trading at seven.
So if Sandisk is doing all these partnerships and they're like, I would assume the Chainlink
at this point for the market where everyone wants to use them for their data and AI storage,
wouldn't it be somewhat of the same thing if Link is partnering up with everyone for their oracle service um and all of that stuff
i i i guess it's just because crypto has this huge problem with um tokenomics i would assume
and naka talks about this a lot where a lot of these alts are kind of like a charity of sorts where the tokens are printed
and they're just used for salary or for marketing purposes and stuff like that.
But either way, Evan, what's going on, bro?
Yo, yo, yo, what's going on, Wabi? Nice intro.
A lot to think about right now for obvious reasons a lot of good
stuff there um you know i the first thing i'll just go through it kind of the way i'm seeing it
you know in terms of what i'm looking at in the charts um you know big surprise i'm a chartist
but i mean you know you in all likelihood bitcoin you're a hard squiggler bro yeah i don't draw
squiggly lines i only draw straight lines i'm not a you know i'm mildly uh uh squiggly, bro. You're a card squiggly. I don't draw squiggly lines. I only draw straight lines.
I'm not a, you know, I'm mildly squiggly phobic in that aspect.
We're more of a straight community, if you will.
I'm just kidding.
But yeah, you know, I think that ultimately, you know, 74, you know, previous area is pretty big. I mean, the next huge area is year-to-date anchored VWAP for Bitcoin, 76K, right around 76K right now. Ethereum is currently above its year-to-date anchored VWAP,
2300, around there. This would be like the first place that you would potentially, you know,
see a speed bump at least. And you're kind of starting to see a little bit of a speed bump,
you know, something of that nature. But things on, you know, higher timeframes still look pretty
good. So it wouldn't surprise me if we do, know jump to maybe 2400 on eth and potentially i mean for bitcoin we still haven't
really hit our speed bump hit our stop sign yet at like you know 76 75 so in all likelihood you
should hit that um you know it'd be kind of anticlimactic to not to kind of reject from here
right now so i think it's like a little bit premature to start trying to short,
unless we were to maybe lose the week today
anchored VWAP at like 73.6, those kinds of areas.
So that's something to keep in mind here.
But I mean, the macro, when you look at Bitcoin,
obviously the thing everyone's talking about,
including myself, is you draw a diagonal trend line all't have the, you know, I mean, you draw a diagonal,
you know, trend line all the way back from the bear market low in December 2018, bear market low
in December 2022, and, you know, where we bounced in the beginning of February, and it looks very
similar. So you can make the argument that it's an early potential bottom. I mean, a lot of people
that look at four-year cycle look at history would tell you, nah, man, it's too early. But I would say the counter to that is when you look at 2022, I mean, freaking microstrategy
bottomed in May of 2022 and Bitcoin didn't bottom until November. ETH bottomed in June and Bitcoin
didn't bottom until November. So every time is a little bit earlier. So it's not impossible that
we did hit a bottom in February. What I think is very unlikely, though, is coming
back up to new all-time highs, you know, this year. I think it's more likely that we kind of
stay range-bound. And that's what the charts would even, you know, kind of support as well,
staying range-bound between 60K to like 80K for a lot of this year, a lot of this year. So, I mean,
what works best in that scenario, obviously, DCAing works really well um so that's what i think you know right now would work really well some cash secured puts
things of that nature work really well in this environment too like wheel strategy with options
if you care about trad fi that type of stuff um but yeah no i think like eth versus bitcoin like
for the altcoins right now i think they're risky as hell like other than i'll talk about hype in
a second but i mean eth i think is the strongest all ETH I've been messing with.
But like they don't look very attractive against ETH.
Like I mean, Salt Lada does not look as attractive as ETH.
You know, Dow and hype like have been mentioned.
Obviously, I would probably rather mess with hype right now.
There's some momentum changes in hype, especially on its Bitcoin pair.
That's the only thing that's really up from bitcoin the thing with dow is it's just like you know that's been down
for a lot and then just had this giant wick up like usually when you see that usually you get
some type of pullback it's it's are you talking about dow or tao it's it's t-a-o oh it's well
yeah yeah it's that i i say dow because i i Taoism, and it's pronounced Tao.
It's interchangeable the way it's – I took a class.
We got Tao in there, Tao in the – we should have him give an overview on that.
But the Tao Te Ching, I think, is the pronunciation.
Every Western person who's not a Taoist would probably say Tao.
So, yeah. But Tao a you know not a taoist um would probably say tao so yeah um
but tao you know jumping up i mean it's kind of like a weird kind of name that they picked i mean
they obviously picked that name for the uh i would think it's not a coincidence they picked that in
terms of the uh you know the eastern philosophy but yeah i mean it's up a ton i mean it's hitting
kind of a speed bump you know we would say it's hitting a speed bump around 300 or just below 300.
You'd probably want to show some momentum and hold, you know, 300.
You have momentum on your daily, which is cool.
You're not really seeing momentum on your two-day yet,
but if you can hold these general areas, you'll start to see that.
So I think hype is the slightly less risky play than that as of right now.
But I really think that, likeTH and potentially probably BMNR,
if that can kind of mirror, you know, what MicroStrategy did in the last kind of bear market,
that could be kind of your, you know, slightly degen potential cool play. And I would just
recommend, you know, really keep an eye on BMNR versus Bitcoin, BMNR versus ETH. And if it loses
its low for a bit from Bitcoin, you know, get the hell out because that invalidates
any hope there pretty much, in my view.
I mean, my view is that you don't really want BMNR any lower than it's already gone.
You don't really want MicroStrategy below $100.
I mean, come on, 80%.
You don't want this anything lower than 80% down.
That's my opinion anyway.
You know, I mean, the thing people have talked
about, obviously, you know, energy is a tricky one because I think gold versus Bitcoin, the
obvious choice would be Bitcoin right now. I mean, I converted my gold over to Bitcoin. It's 70%.
Yeah, Bitcoin's down 70% against Bitcoin. What more do you want? Do you want 90% down against
Bitcoin? Like, do you really even believe in Bitcoin at that point? We got to kind of,
you know, unless you think Bitcoin's going to freaking really low, Bitcoin's the obvious choice against gold right now, I think. The thing that I wanted
to mention that's kind of throwing, that's changing things a little bit, I was thinking about Iran a
lot. And I know it's a lot different, but when you had Iraq in 2004, what was very interesting there
was energy kept going up through that time.
The economy, S&P 500, kept going up as well.
So I would view this Iran as generally more bullish for most things.
And I think that it's going to kind of throw a wrench into the thesis that interest rates are going to come down very quickly.
I still think they may come down some a little bit, but I think that generally oil, generally XLE, it's going to be volatile, especially on oil
itself. But I wouldn't get bearish on XLE just yet. I don't know if like I'm up like 20% of my
XLE. I'm not selling yet. We'll see what happens. I'm monitoring the situation. But, you know,
if you look at what happened from 04 all the way until June of 08, it kept going up. I'm monitoring the situation. But, you know, if you look at what happened from 04 all
the way until June of 08, it kept going up. I mean, that thing could ride. That thing definitely
could ride. I mean, I don't know if it's going to outperform Bitcoin or anything like that, but
that could absolutely ride. The same thing with potentially yields. I mean, they could be kind of
choppy for a while. Your interest rates, especially in this environment, depending on how long this
goes on for. And I mean, I think the thing too is like this Iran stuff, you know, if it keeps the economy
stronger, I mean, it probably helped Bush when Iraq helped Bush probably win reelection in,
you know, 2004 and all that. So, you know, it could help Trump in the midterms too. And it
could prevent the, even the S&P 500 from having that bad of a year if you really
look into it comparing to Iraq. I know that's kind of far-fetched because they're very different,
but it's interesting to kind of look at the history there. S&P 500, I think, will eventually
go down a little bit lower potentially, but that doesn't mean Bitcoin has to go all the way down
to 50K or whatever. Bitcoin could easily stay in this 80K to 60K range for until October,
theoretically. i just think
we're it's an accumulation phase it's going to be you know kind of boring in my opinion but
yeah i mean if you want to follow momentum it's obviously hype probably um the one uncle mike
mentioned hypernium finance i think i was looking at that that looks interesting compared to bitcoin
that penny stock um that's invested in hype So there's different ways to obviously play it.
But I mean, where are the bull markets right now?
Bull market is still in energy, I would argue.
The bull market's still in hype.
The bull market arguably is in tau, but be careful with that.
And the bull market may be in Ethereum and probably hopefully is starting Ethereum to
a certain extent.
Yeah, I know you were mentioning how eth btc
um might actually just continue trending upwards and um what's so odd bro is like
over the last 10 years we've never actually seen the queues and the sP range for this long without a massive trending move of 10% to 15%.
That's the crazy part.
And you still have some things that are in bull markets and have given the volatility
to both the upside and the downside that really surprised people.
Do you remember when stocks would only move like, they would move like
3% to 5% every two weeks or something like that? And now it's like, dude, you can catch a 2x in
stocks in like a week now. It's quite insane. And I think whatever, if there is a new low incoming for BTC,
I think it just happens within a singular move like we had on 10-10 or February 5th
instead of like a dragged out bearish type of crab
crab and probably an event that happens in equities.
and probably an event that happens in equities.
But I'd rather focus on hype than on Tau.
If I'm going to look at Tau, I'd look at these subnet tokens.
I mean, if Tau pulls back, I mean, it's pulled back two percent to three percent today depending what exchange
you're looking at and some of these subnet tokens are down like 15 to 20 percent so if tau pulls
back 20 some of these on-chain tokens just get absolutely obliterated and anytime there's like
a new market for an l1 token it's it's always it's always risky we saw that with bnb and uh
near and tron where anytime they they pull back and it would be like oh it's tron season it's bnb
season and they would have like the slightest pullback it'd just be um just bloody man but
zach what are you saying bro how? How are you, man?
Yo, what's up, Bobby? What's going on, Evan? Yeah, man, just a lot of, I share a lot of the
same sentiment that Evan shares too. I was looking, I think Michael Saylor's average
Bitcoin price is kind of where we're getting stuck with Bitcoin. What I really want to see
is this level turn
into support. I think it's the third or fourth time now we've come up here, 74. I think we got
maybe to 74.5 and it just feels like we're hitting a wall. And I can't help to go back to
late November where we wicked down to 80K and we kind of grinded up
for a while. I think we actually got to like 98 and some change. I mean, at that point,
you know, we were like $18,000 above our bottom at that point. And then, you know, the bottom fell
out quickly. I mean, it just, it feels like very similar to what's happening now. So it's just
kind of like managing that risk. You know, I bought a little bit of Bitcoin. I still hold spot,
but it's just like waiting to kind of go in, go into some of the heavier positions into Bitcoin,
I think is my play right now. You know, I agree. I think, you know, take what the market's giving
you like Zcash is making a little move here,
like I'm in a little leverage long right now on that.
Hype has been kind of honestly doing,
it kind of reminds me of what Casper did
in the bear market of 2022,
kind of just going against the grain,
having its own little market despite what's happening.
And I think when you look at Hype's business model,
it's very different than what Casper presented too. So I think it's a more interesting play. I like Tao. I haven't really
bought any for a while. I've just held it. I think it's an interesting long-term play, but
getting into it now after the big pump, I think they've got some kind of event,
I think I read, or something happening. So there could be, you know, a reason for,
for the pump maybe. And oftentimes when you go up that fast, you kind of expect a little bit of a
pullback, especially, you know, in this kind of market environment. But yeah, man, all in all,
like, I feel like it's, it's kind of boring right now. Like I, it's just a lot of patience,
which kind of frustrating sometimes because you want to do something. But more or less, man, just focusing on a lot of short-term trading opportunities and sitting in cash and kind of wait and see.
I mean, what do you think?
Do you think we're heading back down to 60 before we get to like 80?
I mean, I know 80 is only like 6K away, but it feels like it's like, it's a lot longer away right now.
I don't know what you guys think on that, but.
I'm not really focused right now on BTC retesting lower levels.
I think the market is giving you what's trending and you know i understand right
like someone might say damn like why are you talking about tau now uh why didn't you talk
about tau before and all that stuff what's because tau was in a fucking downtrend for two years, man. That's the thing.
You have these tokens that have been in downtrends for years, man.
If you look at Q1 2024, many things topped out around that time.
And anytime you think it's bottomed,
they have these bounces that is typically between 50% to 100%.
And then they continue the downtrend and
if ai is going to come back and i sure is i sure hope it does then i'm just going to be
looking at tau subnets to start off with not tau the token itself i'd rather find um the alpha within tau which is subnet it's like being
bullish on soul right all right cool maybe you missed the bottom um with soul hitting 67 dollars
right maybe that was like the promo bottom and that's fine your goal should be to find the alpha
within or rather the the the soul it's sole beta if you want to
call it that um because there really is no beta usually only lasts two to four months and then it
just all the beta gets destroyed with within that ecosystem um that's kind of what i'm thinking
right and there's been plenty of things that have trended since tau had that recovery from
whenever it bottomed in february um and at least you know that it's in a down it's it's it's finally
not in a downtrend if it breaks that i think it's like in the 300s i think i think it's it's had
these it's had these small um this these like small levels over the last year where it just couldn't break out.
And it's right above, I thought it was like 300 and change, but it's actually just below 400.
If you look at that peak that it had in the summer of last year it always has trouble
like right below 400 right above 400 if it breaks that then hey man it probably goes to a thousand
and if it continues to make higher highs then i'm just gonna buy templar man um that's like the
the most liquid subnet token i think it's sn3 there are many others but
like all things on chain sometimes it could just rug completely whenever the l1 token pulls back
substantially that's the only thing that i'm worried about and um honestly i'd rather just
play these these plays of equities rather than just buy something that's up 100% over the last few weeks.
But, yeah, I don't really think BTC pulling back to the mid-60s would affect some of these alts that have been trending by a lot.
ending by a lot i think they just v-reverse like we've been hammering we've been hammering the nail
I think they'd just be reversed.
on on hype for weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks and it finally broke out um and i hope it all goes
up man uh fet is another one like if you missed tau then fat which had that huge rebrand to some super long name that's another crypto token
uh virtuals is another as well which i i truly do think that could go to billions again um
and i don't really think i'm gonna talk too much about virtuals because I've already done that in the past for, for two, for, for way, for way too long.
And the price action just outside of everything from hype has mainly just been crap, um, or short lived.
So if Tao breaks out of 300 bucks then happy days bro
um and btc we could be ranging until wars comes in i understand some people think like
ah after this vol event bitcoin's gonna be in this death range for like eight months right um because we experienced death ranges after
of all events in 2023 and 2024 um we would have these these massive capitulation days and just
range after that we saw that in april of 2024 uh when uh when gcr tweeted out out when you had that World War III
type of flood slash Israel and all that
and we ranged after that
for about six months almost
five to six months we ranged after that
when we tested.
I think it was 55 K 54.
I think it was the first or second week of April 2023.
Same thing.
We had that Silicon Valley bank situation and we ranged for a long time.
situation and we ranged for a long time and we made one we made one marginal high
um at 30 or 31k and we continue to just range between 24 to 27 28k for those that remember
so perhaps we do have something similar to that i just think because trump is in office and this administration just loves
volatility um i i think the range breaks from here until may and if we don't make new lows
um within within crypto from here and the time kevin wch comes in then we probably make new all-time highs this year
and that's fine with me man i'll just go on chain and blast a lot of shitters as most people will
do the same thing right and if they don't want to buy alts then bro just buy some hood leaps
and you'll probably outperform solana um if you think souls in a higher time frame uptrend again then
you buy some hood leaps it's almost the same exact thing man um if hood goes up
soul is gonna probably do the same thing if you look at uh hood and soul they both
started trending to the upside at the same time. The most aggressive move from the bull markets happened around the same time for Hood and Seoul.
They both peaked out around the same time as well.
They both peaked out in October.
No, no, I'm sorry.
Solana actually peaked a little bit before Hood, if I'm not mistaken.
bit before hood if i'm not if i'm not mistaken uh you had that top in september and then in january
and hood also topped out um shortly after the inauguration and then went through that brutal
downtrend and then hood just destroyed solana to the upside um and i still think that's the case um i think could just
destroy soul moving forward but that's my take soul has these tokenomics issues which i think
will be solved with fire dancer whenever that happens um but i think they're saving that for uh
that happens um but i think they're saving that for uh for the pre-halving year i think sometime
next year um maybe in q2 of next year or something like that um during their breakpoint conference
i think would be great not this year but next. The Breakpoint conference is usually a time where a lot of Seoul stuff gets hyped up.
I think after Breakpoint, you had some AI stuff come out of Seoul, which didn't really materialize.
And I also think ICM was a thing during their break point last year as well
which also did not work out
I think Seoul's going through this
through this identity crisis
I just don't think it could be a chain where
it's just something you go on
whenever something happens to an animal
or something happens in the news and it's tokenized, right?
For example, I'm sure you've seen ShapeStore, right?
Like, dude, I saw ShapeStore at 200K market cap like three hours after the launch and I'm like, oh my goodness, dude, this thing would easily go to hundreds of millions if it was 2024 or 2023.
And I'm like, shit, dude, should I shout this thing out?
So I'm like, hey, I'm going to buy this thing.
And then I realized, like, you know, what have I been talking about on Spaces, right?
Or on my personal account.
You have all of these viral trends that happen and they've had these ceilings on chain between 50 to 120, 130 mil.
And they get shout outs from all these huge accounts.
And most of their trending moves to the upside
happen within three days and then two days later they're down 80 percent and it's just
this huge this huge euthanasia roller coaster and what do you know all these big profiles were
shouting out shape store finance us shout shouted out shape store and it
topped out at three mil and i'm like damn bro like what a what a shame um on chain is not what it
used to be and i'd rather just like not really say much publicly anytime i see some micro cap because
the game isn't the same dude you know you've got these
people that buy it pre-bond or shortly after the token bonds and the moment they start seeing
um people give it traction they're just like all right time to sell like no one really believes in
so if i were playing memes or something i'd just buy
pepe and spx bro that's like the only thing i would see um for memes and i think i mean anytime
pepe has had these these large pumps i remember at the start of the year pepe had some huge pump
and i'm like dude this thing it probably isn't gonna die because bruv if pepe doesn't if pepe doesn't make
an all-time high nobody's memes will ever come back man never um not even spx so i think
if we're actually bottomed here and nothing happens in crypto as far as downside um from here until may then i think those are some things that
i'm i'm optimistic on outside of uh outside of um hyperliquid so yeah it's those are kind of
my thoughts man on on the market um on chain is kind of it's kind of like
paying zero day options
except you have more time
because zero days
they work on an hourly
on an hourly basis
like you buy zero days and if the price moves
against you by the slightest bit
you're just fucked
so I think
on chain is a little bit more gracious than that but it's almost kind of the same thing.
Or short-term calls or short-term puts.
The contracts that expire by the end of the week, I think that's how on-chain is right now.
And if you're not really sophisticated, then the market's just going to chew you up.
Because you don't know where the ceiling is for some of these things.
You might think, oh, this has so much virality.
This has so much attention.
I'm going to set the limit at, you know, 50 mil market cap and it tops out at like two to three.
And the game just isn't like that. So I think if you're going to go on chain, just do these small trades and just stack more Bitcoin, ETH, and hype.
Probably more hype if you're looking for more like short-term upside, in my opinion.
But, yeah.
Ghosty, what are you saying, bro?
How are you saying bro how are you hey it's up wally thanks for having me man yeah actually you talk you you mentioned some
some things that i want to talk about you mentioned uh link and you mentioned actually Actually, Nebius. I did a poll, I have been vocally bearish on IRON
on a high timeframe, but I actually posted
one month ago, why Nebius was gonna outperform.
If I might post on the next, so we can discuss it.
Did you say something you'll see do you hear me yeah you cut off there for a little bit man like you mentioned you mentioned lincoln yeah you mentioned link and then something about iron then
you just cut off for me at least for me you did okay now i'm here
yeah so i one month ago like i have been vocally bearish on iron on a high time frame but i i posted
one month ago i posted this on the net so you guys can see that i was bullish on nibus because
i did a pair analysis and i saw like a high time frame bottoming pattern. So I mean,
that played nicely for me. Now on that pattern, we're like approaching like a resistance on the
pair. So I expect like the performance to fade off, especially on Ebius. but that was a great call for myself and in terms of bitcoin like
i remember like going all the way all the way back to 2021 we had three back to back like
ascending channels on bitcoin and every time we had we another drop off. And right now, we're having a...
Right now, we're on an ascending channel right now. So, I mean, my overall bias is bearish
because I get a lot of confluence using the stablecoins chart, which is the usdt dominance plus the usdc dominance like that's another
variation that i that i use and and and get a lot of signal let me let me let me show you so you can
see hey ai guy is here i'm sure he's happy and nubius is on his uh is in price discovery
i just want to make things clear man like i don't know what the hell nubius does
i just like the name and their logo looks cool and i remember during the last show that we had
uh matt was on the show and i'm like bro all this stuff looks like 2017 altcoins
they have this nice pitch they have these nice sounding company names
constellation solaris and it's like all right dude just i'm just gonna get a little bit of
newbies because it sounds cool i don't know what the hell it is and i'm sure a lot of people
i'm sure a lot of people just i'm sure a lot of people uh bought Pepe for the same reason.
Oh, Pepe the Frog.
I like the memes.
It sounds cool.
And that's it.
Sometimes you don't need this huge gigabrain research.
You just don't.
So that's what I have to say about that.
AI guy, how are you doing, bro? What's up uh i'm richer than i was yesterday uh and i don't think we're gonna see 28 go see anytime soon or ever i think
the bottom was 34 like i called it uh you know a few weeks ago a few months ago whatever uh you
know this is we're in the largest AI sorry we're in the largest AI
or technology build out
and I was just sitting through
Jensen's entire presentation
dude like that guy can
talk forever I'm kind of exhausted
watching that entire presentation but it was pretty bullish
you saw Iron's logo
blasted at the top
towards the end of the presentation on
Nvidia's latest technology.
And yeah, I mean, the Iron Bears are in shambles.
You know, so many bears were saying, especially coming from the Nubius Bears,
they kept saying that, you know, Iron's technology is outdated.
Their data centers can't support the next-gen technology.
Their ATM is dilutive.
And we're seeing a pump on no news during the market hours.
And then Jensen doubled his forecast through 2027.
A year ago, he said, look, the demand for our GPUs, the computers that they make,
right, let's keep it simple, you know, specifically the Blackwells and the Rubens,
these are the models of the GPUs, are going to go from $500 billion in revenue, right,
this was last year's number, $500 billion, to now a trillion dollars. And
this is like a guy who sandbags his numbers so he can beat expectations, because he knows
expectations are high because he's got the number one stock in the market, right? And
he kept saying, this is the top CEO, right? So he kept saying that the number one constraint is power.
And you have IRN, literally the largest neocloud or compute provider with the largest capacity on the market, 4.5 plus gigawatts, right?
That they've got secured, right? and they've got even more power.
And every iteration of, you know, computers that comes to market by NVIDIA just increases
the profitability of these data centers, right?
So you'd be stupid to be fundamentally bearish on AI data centers because if these
data centers do not make money AI does not work just like Bitcoin right you know I know you have
a crypto audience if the Bitcoin miners all the Bitcoin miners don't make money like there's no
incentive to mine Bitcoin it's the same deal with ai right if none
of the data centers make any money there is no ai right so the incentive right is to stay in the
game because you can make money right like that's the entire point and uh you know if you if you
track the fundamentals of this business the rental prices of the compute, the older GPUs are still in high demand.
The prices keep going up for the older shit.
What do you expect the newer stuff to be?
The demand just keeps going up.
Demand just keeps going up.
And, you know, when I see kid analysts, you know, post their $20, $15 price targets,
I'm like, these guys are illiterate or have no idea what's going on in the business.
But I want to add something to that.
And I want you to take a look to something I posted on the Nest.
Because I'm also like, no, please, Bitcoin AI, take a look.
I was comparing Nebius and IREN, and I did a detailed pattern analysis on why we had high probabilities on the short term like Nebius outperform.
And actually, we did.
If you take a look how much IR gained versus nebius i agree that
good no i agree yeah no i mean and i was good and i was bullish on my post because the pair
analysis gave me more probability see if you check how many how much was the return on nebius
it was like 45 and all iron only went up at 10% since I did the pair analysis back in February 15.
And just to be clear, man, like long-term, like long-term, multi-year, like I agree with your thesis,
but right now we are on a high time frame, a high time frame bear, because we have been creating lower highs on the high time frame uh i'm high time frame bear because we have been creating lower uh lower
highs on the high time frame so after unless that is broken i'll tell you like hey you need to see
what 46 46 to get the 50 day and then you need to see 47 93 to be on the 100 day uh right? Those are the two numbers you're looking to hit, right?
AI guy, this is the first time I hear you talk to you, bro.
Dude, I see it. I just don't rely on it because I'm focused on making the next 20x, right? Like,
I'm not here to make a couple pennies, right? I think it's kind of cool. You know, I do this full time. Right. So, yes, I do sell calls on some of my on a tiny percentage of my position.
So it's good to be aware of these things. But like, you know, where this is going.
Is is is much bigger. Of course, there's going to be, you know, a half a dozen, a dozen more, uh, draw at 40, 50, 60% drawdowns. That's inevitable. Right. But, uh, like you got to
manage that downside. Obviously there's not financial advice, but like it's, it's, it's so
silly when I see these, like, uh, these really low targets and they never hit, right? Like where was $28?
Where's $15?
I saw some retards saying $2.
Like these people are not serious, right?
Go see.
I agree.
The end biz chart looks better than iron right now.
It is all green, right?
The 5, 20, 15.
No, but right now, but we're like the outperformance based on my pair analysis is almost about to end.
I just want to make that clear.
That's cool, right?
But I'm not, you know, I see some people in my group chat that, you know, that have multimillion dollar positions and they're selling calls on all of their
positions. I'm like, dude, you're retarded. Why would you cap your upside like that? It's
ridiculous. I understand. A percent, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, maybe up to 10% on a multi-million dollar position, right, but then, you know, you see some really
ridiculous analysis, TAN fundamentally, right, like, and I'm not just picking on Ghosty, right,
like, I was, I'm not referring to this chart, I'm referring to the $28 target, right,
and then, like, the day David Levinson, right, like, dude's like, it's going down to $5, right?
And that guy went rabid.
George Noble, it's going to zero, right?
And then what's the other boomer's name to complete the boomer trifecta?
Help me out.
David Levinson, George Noble, what's the other guy?
Nakamoto, Nakamoto, Nakamoto.
Not Nakamoto.
I said boomers.
The other guy, the prominent one that's shorted Enron, what's the other guy? Nakamoto, Nakamoto. Not Nakamoto. I said Boomers. The other guy, the prominent one that shorted Enron.
What was his name again?
You know who I'm talking about.
Fuck, it's on the tip of my tongue.
But anyways, that guy's NGMI, right?
He's not going to make it.
And man, like, it was a good day today, right?
And for transparency, I sold some calls, a tiny percentage at 48.50, right?
So, and if those shares get called away, we go to 50 this week, that's cool, right?
I mean, I won't be mad.
I'll be selling puts after, right?
Like, not a big deal. But I'm bullish, right? I'm bullish on the short be mad. I'll be selling puts after, right? Like, not a big deal.
But I'm bullish, right? I'm bullish in the short term. I'm bullish on the long term.
And I don't really have my major, you know, I sound like angry at the TA guys, but I'm not
that angry at the TA guys. You know who I'm really mad at? I'm mad at the noobs who are being tricked by
the noobious propaganda machines, right? Like those communists in particular, not Ghosty. I
think Ghosty isn't really, you know, the main FUD machine that I see on on twitter right it's like the the dudes that are saying
like oh my god like nebius has a hundred megawatts it's good it's going to take over ai like bro
like these guys have like a tiny bit of their data centers running and they're going to try to get, you know, three gigawatts plus, right?
A 30X improvement over the next year or two, which I think is hard to believe, right?
They're not experts in construction, right?
I don't even know if they have the staff.
I actually heard that, correct me if I'm wrong,
because I was listening to the IRON,
one of the IRON speeches,
and they are their own contractors in construction.
Yeah, there's no middleman, right?
They're the construction company, right?
They don't have to rely on a third party to do that construction.
They already have 2,000, 3,000 workers in Texas.
I don't know if you guys know this, but there's a fucking war.
And Nubias has a data center being built in Israel.
Come on, dude. These data centers are in the most absolute risky, non-ideal locations spread across the world.
And it's not bullish to be diversified across many geographies.
It just adds to the risk factor.
Building in Texas is the place to be.
Lowest cost energy i know it's not that
important for ai because there's such high margins but you know there's iron in particular has
gigawatt sites that they control right uh in the like the in the most de-risk location, right? So I'm seeing people, software developers who have a hobby, right,
that they invest for fun, right?
And they're bullish on Nebius because of their great software background.
I think that's impressive, right?
They built the the google of russia
but i'm not convinced that they can be the best construction company
in in the short to medium to long term ai guys so would you say something like a caterpillar
and where it's trading at 320 bill that's something where iron can potentially hit if we're talking industrial
as well if iron deals with construction multiples right 10 million dollars per megawatt right uh
and iron has 4.5 gigawatts this is based on like the the the previous generation not even the
rubens right that's like 12 million dollars per megawatt do just with today's power that's a 45 billion dollar per year
potential at a bearish price of sales look you know it's a five at least this
is a 200 billion dollar plus you know, market cap. Yeah. Right. Hey guys, right. Guys, actually right now, based on my framework, we're having a short signal on Bitcoin.
I mean, we're about to potentially top.
If you guys take a look at the post I made, which happened, like it went perfectly.
I did it in March 8th.
I was calling the local bottom on Bitcoin because I get a lot
of confluence on the stablecoins chart. Right now, as we speak, we're in that support and we're
having a time count. What is a time count? The time count is we have had more than seven straight
red candles into that massive support on the stablecoin dominance. Because right now, until proven otherwise, we're in a high time frame, a bullish flag.
So right now, as a short term swing, I'm going to start accumulating shorts on Bitcoin, just
so everybody knows. Right now, as we speak.
Like I see limited downside bears on what the chart is showing me right now
um yeah that's what i was looking at ai guy caterpillar because if if data centers are
going to be a thing and you're going to have a lot of demand to build them then caterpillar it's probably the next caterpillar um like this sector ai
slash bitcoin i'll go even further and say it's the next palantir oh i mean it isn't
they're trading on the same market cap aren't they caterpillar and palantir i think they're
like trading around the same yeah 360 bill for Palantir, 320 for Caterpillar. Yeah. And I think the
marketing aspect that we're seeing in some of these companies is pretty cool. I'm seeing
Sandisk commercials now. You're starting to see ai commercials and that is impressive i think storage is going to
be insanely important and i know this is a crypto show right but unfortunately
there is not a single token to capture any of these narratives is ai tokens that i'm not talking
about crypto right if you the the money is in ai right like that's
yeah but it's in equities like yeah you have to bring over the equities you have to ai stocks ai
equities have mogged crypto there was no alt season right because of ai right you want to
speculate speculate in equities right like this is the the Like, biotech hasn't moved either. Like, until recently,
you're seeing XBI do pretty well. But like, you know, back in the day, biotech was a place you
went to gamble, right? Especially smaller caps. We're not, you know, seeing the same uh moves right because ai ate all that right uh so
if i came for the jobs and it came for all season yeah i mean uh all the season bros
all got jobs now right but you know yeah it's it's mostly just been, I would even call it alt season or bear markets or bull markets. It's just periods of risk on and risk off. And during the periods of risk on in crypto, the ceilings, unfortunately, were a lot lower than previous cycle.
than previous cycle. But I would say like it did capture some of that capital from last cycle.
And I say that because when things were risk on, you had multiple things going from zero to billions
in the same kind of velocity. Like AI-16Z went from zero to four bill in three months.
The like AI 16 Z went from zero to four bill and three months.
Same thing with go to rebro was another one too.
But unfortunately the ceilings were so low because the,
the,
the token dynamics are just a lot different in this cycle because you can just
launch something on some of these platforms like
a pump fun um or like a bag zap or whatever and it all runs on attention you know like you can have
all the best narratives but then it's like oh this this animal died and now it's a token and now my
token is the token that i that i was holding that was been outperforming is now dead it's a token and now my token, the token that I was holding that has been outperforming
is now dead.
It's kind of how it's been.
It's been hyper rotational, not as much clear signal.
And if AI and GPO is going to be a thing, then at some point, crypto needs that token
that, or doesn't need it, but it would be nice to have that token where it captures
that.
But for now, that's just not the market we have.
And that's kind of why, like, over the last year I've been saying, you know, if you're in crypto, you could go to equities because there are plays there.
And anytime you make a quick play in crypto, you should probably bridge that over to TradFi.
You should probably bridge that over to TradFi. You should probably bridge that over to TradFi.
Yeah, I don't think it's good.
I think it should, right?
Like, you want to own assets, right?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Like, long term, if I were a betting man, right, and I were to bet, like, I'm always going to bet against, like, a Solana, right?
That's, like, the third token that everyone, including including myself think that it's going to be
you know it's always been bitcoin and eth and then you know what's the next one and maybe it's soul
right um and i i do think hype could be something but it just needs more time but i ask myself like
all right if i like a stock long term how do i see it against solana and far to compare it against hood which
is like my favorite long-term asset in the equity markets i would pick hood all day bro like throw
my capital lock it away for like 10 years i i know hood is going to be here, but Solana, I don't know, dude.
I don't know.
And at some point as you get older, you'll have to start making those decisions where it's like a position where you don't think about short-term moves or anything like that. And I think if you've been a crypto bro exclusively, once you go over to TradFi, the way you move in markets, it just changes you.
It just does.
Matt, what are you saying, bro?
Actually, no, O'Hare. I haven't heard from O'Hare.
O'Hare, what's going on, bro? What are you seeing in the markets, man?
What's going on, guys?
Yeah, I'm just sitting here listening to you you guys were up here it's good
dude why did you change your name to Ohadl well because I uh I figured I better you know when I
go into these Bitcoin not not the space but your Bitcoin your typical Bitcoin space I got to go in
under the cover of darkness like a like a Navy seal so i go under that way it's that way you know i gotta fit in i
gotta fit in i was gonna do one of these like crypto bro meme uh picks gifts uh i haven't come
up with one yet i used to have one i may get one get another one anyway no it's just just funny
just to be funny some of my buddies are like dude you gotta just change your name to like
a crypto related name so that so i'm like all right well'll go from o'hare to a hodl so it's a hodl for now dude you're welcome on uh on this stream man
yeah i know yeah yeah yeah and i and i i really don't understand like these terms like a bitcoin
space like what what the is a bitcoin space bro is there to, like, what do you talk about?
Like, ah, the latest block transaction has this message.
Well, mostly the Bitcoin space is that frequent.
Yeah, mostly the ones I frequent is they talk about Bitcoin
for about five minutes on the hour, every hour.
And the other 55 minutes is spent on talking about
how they're going to spend their Bitcoin riches.
So it's like 55 minutes of how we're going to spend our money
and five minutes on what the price is and where it's like 55 minutes of how we're going to spend our money and five minutes
on what the price is and where it's going. So that's kind of like my, that's been my experience.
You never sell your Bitcoin out here. You never sell your Bitcoin.
That's right, bro. You gotta find better spaces out here. Yeah. But look, I, yeah, it's, you know, it's funny.
Every time we have an update recently, my main thing about all these spaces,
not just crypto related, but just, you know, trading and investing related
and kind of macro related, all these kind of spaces is just get a feel.
It's like a thermometer.
Just get a feel for what people are thinking, you know, what they're saying,
how they're saying things, you know, what they're talking about. And, you know, it's funny, the last few days, you know, it's been like, oh my god,
when is this gonna end? This is horrible. You know, this market sucks, everything sucks,
life sucks. And then we got a green day and everybody's like, you know, it was funny because
we went into this weekend being very bearish.
We meaning that the general ecosystem of X, FinTwit, as it were.
And we come into Monday being, you know, bullish.
Everything's, it's like Lazarus, you know, waking from the dead here today.
I wouldn't, my two cents is I wouldn't think too much of this move.
I think it was just, you know, technical move based on less negative news,
not necessarily a lot of positive news,
but just less negative news.
And so you have, you've had a reflexive rally here.
I mean, you have to remember a lot of these names,
a lot of the large cap, mega cap names
have been sold off pretty good,
you know, over 10%, in some cases over 15
and pushing 20%.
And so they're off their highs quite a bit.
So, you know, you have this kind of reflexive rally to the upside
when you have less negative news, right?
It doesn't mean you don't have any negative news.
It just means you just don't have like Armageddon news.
So I think that's kind of what happened.
And then, of course, Bitcoin being the, you know, the 800-pound gorilla,
I think it's, you know, it reacts first, right?
So it's kind of like that canary in the coal mine.
It kind of tells people the risk is either off or on.
And you saw that in spades going into the end of the weekend,
Bitcoin started a rally and, you know,
that kind of followed through for everything else, you know, today.
So I don't know.
To me, it's just, you know, I wouldn't read too much into what happened today because tomorrow we can give all this back and then some.
I mean, it just depends on what, you know, what happens in Washington, what happens, you know, in Iran.
I mean, that's like a minute by minute situation over there.
So it's hard to really kind of, you know, put your finger on any
specific direction that things are going to go. You know, so I don't know. I mean, that's
kind of my tech Bitcoin being, you know, it's had a nice little rebound here, a little bounce,
technical bounce. I think it was sussing out the equities are going to have a nice move. And I think that, you know, again, it's the, you know, it's the leader of the,
you know, it's the apex predator, if you will, right, of the risk on risk off environment. So
it didn't surprise me. What happens tomorrow is anybody's guess what happens by the end of the
week? Who knows? I have no idea. I mean, we could be up. We could have Bitcoin could be at 85,000.
Stocks could be pushing you highs. I mean, we're not we're not that far off the highs. Who knows? I have no idea. I mean, we could be up. We could have Bitcoin could be at 85,000. Stocks could be pushing new highs. I mean, we're not that far off the highs. What's funny is everybody was screaming bloody murder, but we're not that far from the highs here,
guys. I mean, this is nothing. So the indices, anyway, I mean, there's some select stocks,
like I said, that are in correction territory, but for the most part, the market's pretty sound.
So, you know, it's hard to say which, which way things are going to go, but
I don't think the wheels are falling off the bus necessarily at the moment.
You know, as far as like, you guys were talking about Caterpillar and NVIDIA and some of these
stocks. I mean, anything related to AI, which of course Caterpillar is,
I mean, there's no better beneficiary of AI recently in the last few months,
you know, quarters and companies like Caterpillar,
the ones that are selling into that ecosystem.
You know, and all you have to do is look at a monthly chart of Caterpillar.
It's literally at an all-time high.
And that's
largely driven by, you know, their presence in the AI data center space, the build-out. So
how much more upside there is, I have no idea. What was telling today, and this was, you know,
there are some nuggets out there all the time. What was interesting today is when Jensen was
speaking at the NVIDIA conference here in San Jose, the Bay Area, NVIDIA had a really nice intraday pop on the news that they're going to, you know, the number now is a trillion in profits over the next year or two.
You know, that's what they're supposed to forecasting, which is a little bit more than what people had been anticipating, but it's not a lot more.
And so I think, you know, the narrative keeps getting squeezed and squeezed and squeezed.
And, you know, you're kind of pushing on a string here.
So the question is, how much more are people going to believe?
And today was a good example of the fact that I think people are kind of gun shy a little bit.
Because you had the nice intraday move to the upside, and then it gave up most of that move, you know.
So that was, to me, that was telling.
And the cues, by the way, followed that move.
So, you know, I don't know.
I mean, we'll see.
You know, we'll kind of see what happens here.
I think people are anxious
and they want to sell into any positive news.
I think that's kind of where we're at.
That's my take anyway.
People want to, they don't want to sell a lows,
but they don't want to buy the highs.
So they're kind of selling the bumps, right?
So you're seeing a lot of like selling into, you know, into a bid,
which, you know, to me doesn't, it's never good, right?
That's never a good sign.
So I would just be careful here.
I think Sandisk should do some stock splits, man.
Well, it was funny, you guys, yeah, you guys mentioned sandisk uh I have a friend of mine who's in this business and uh he's been kind
of in and out of sandisk um you know trading it um for for himself personally not not for for
for the Fermi runs but um but you know I remember just talking to him just a few weeks ago uh we
were talking sandisk and uh well not even a few weeks ago uh we were talking Sandisk and uh
well not even a few weeks ago I mean like literally like a week ago or two weeks ago within the last
couple of weeks and if you look at just in in the span of like you know a week since last Monday in
fact last Monday the stock was at 5.16 today it hit you know 7.. think about that move in this stock in a week right yeah it's
it's more volatility than than all coins that this is not a small company no this is a 100
billion market cap company so when you start to see big big outsized moves in just a matter of
days you're talking 10 15 20 moves one way or the other uh that that that does not signal a healthy market.
I know people want to think that that's healthy, you know, like, oh, it's up today.
But to me, that signals distribution.
There are a lot of people willing to sell these pops.
So it's like we went from buy the dip to sell the rip now.
That's kind of, you know, for the bros out there, that's kind of like the new, you know,
slogan, I would say, is this, you know,
we went from buy the dip to sell the rip here.
You know, by the way, all of this can work out swimmingly if we get a resolution to Iran.
You know, if there's some resolution to Iran and oil prices come back down and we're all,
everybody's happy, Iran's happy, the Middle East is happy, we're happy, everybody's happy,
that's fine.
I would say that the chances of something like that happening anytime soon are probably slim to none. They're not zero, but they're certainly not, you know, anywhere near
what I would consider a place where I want to make a bet that that would be the outcome. So I would
still be fading here. I think this is, we're only a couple of weeks into this.
We're only supposed to be here, you know, what was it?
Like he said, a week, a few days, and then we're out.
And now we're sending troops.
Now we're sending Marines, thousands of Marines and boots on the ground.
So I have a feeling this is going to, this isn't going to resolve itself anytime soon.
So again, kind of bye everywhere.
Just be careful here.
You know, we were talking about earlier in the space, like, the fundamentals of Sandisk. And if we were to compare it to any altcoin in the space, it'd be Chainlink, right?
And Sandisk is trading on a multiple of, like, 10 plus compared to Chainlink.
And Chainlink has had almost zero volatility
against sandisk and um i think that that that really says that really says a lot man um
it really does but uh yeah we were talking about sandisk here for the last well it's funny also
somebody somebody said somebody said oh sandisk has got commercials now this is a great sign you We've been talking about Sandisk here for the last four months or so.
Somebody said, oh, Sandisk has got commercials now.
This is a great sign.
They have commercials.
This shows how young a lot of the people are in here.
Most of you guys weren't even around, weren't even born during the late 90s boom,
followed by the millennial bust.
Sandisk used to advertise all the time.
Yeah, they've been around for a minute. you know, the millennial bust. Sandisk used to advertise all the time. You know, Sandisk was-
Yeah, they've been around for a minute, yeah.
Sandisk was the preeminent company
back in the late 90s tech boom
because, you know, if you had anything digital,
remember, the digital revolution was not-
Yeah, digital revolution.
This isn't the only digital revolution we've had.
We've been through multiple cycles of a digital revolution
and Sandisk was one of those companies at the forefront. If you had a digital device, you had
a SanDisk product. And so we're here again 25 years later. Of course, the stock is much, much
higher, much, much more expensive because of this AI revolution that we're in the midst of. So
you know, history doesn't rhyme, but it doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme. And we're seeing that
in spades in a lot of these areas. Certainly Sandisk is one of them. So you have to remember
Sandisk is a cyclical company. When demand is great, it's fucking fantastic for companies like
Sandisk. But when the demand starts to wane and come off and there's just an oversupply, which there typically is at the end of a cycle,
these companies crash. They don't just come down, they crash. I mean, AMD, Micron, Western Digital,
SanDisk, all these stocks and many others. So I would just be careful. If you want to trade these names,
that's fine. I would say if you hadn't owned these names for the last couple of two, three years,
you're not going to be a long-term investor in these names here. Let's face it, even in NVIDIA.
To me, again, and I hate to burst people's bubble, but to me, this is just nothing more than
what we saw in the late 90s with the internet build out, the internet revolution.
I've said this many, many times over the last couple of years, the comparison I've made, which now is being made, you know, it's being cited literally everywhere now.
This comparison between NVIDIA and Cisco.
And that's exactly what it is.
So how long can this last? I'm not sure. It could go on for another year or two, certainly.
So how long can this last?
I'm not sure.
It could go on for another year or two, certainly.
But I would be very careful, you know, thinking that, hey, I missed this run, but maybe not.
I'm going to be a long-term investor. You buy a lot of these stocks here and you could be down
significantly over the next few years. So again, just be very careful and really know your history
where, you know, because this has happened before. In fact, it's happened to NVIDIA before.
It's happened to all these names in the past.
So if you haven't been an investor on this bull run
and you're now thinking about jumping in
because, you know, you want to be participating
and just realize that, you know, these stocks are not cheap.
Matt, what's up, bro?
I agree with a lot of O'Hare's points, except the last bit.
So I agree that there are a lot of similarities to the tech bubble.
Excuse me, the internet bubble of 99-2000.
Well, that's the tech bubble, right?
Well, that's the tech bubble, right?
Okay, yeah, tech bubble.
Okay, yeah, tech bubble.
Yeah, I agree with you.
There was a lot of froth and companies that, you know, let's just slap.com on our name and we too shall get bid.
And we see that right now with AI. Five years ago and 10 years ago in 2016-2017, let's put blockchain for some reason in our quarterly reports.
Let's say we're affiliated with Bitcoin.
Well, let's say we're affiliated with – we see these types of behaviors.
But that doesn't necessarily mean that the big boys are fraudulent.
I didn't say anybody was fraudulent.
I don't know.
Who said they were fraudulent?
Or overpriced.
That's a huge difference, Matt, between being fraudulent and being overpriced.
Okay, well, one big difference between Cisco and NVIDIA, Cisco had risen from a PE of 100
to 150 to 201 at its peak in 2000.
In March 2000, Cisco had climbed all the way to a PE of 200, 201 degrees. But Matt, you can't compare.
You can't compare.
Yes, you can't.
You can't.
I'll tell you why you can't.
Those are real earnings.
Let me explain why you can't.
I know, but let me explain why you can't.
All right, well, let me finish and then you can rebuttal.
NVIDIA today, yes, it had a crazy P.E. five years ago, three years ago, but it has grown into its valuation to the point where today, yes, NVIDIA is a $4.5 trillion market cap, but its pe is only 22 23 it is not a triple digit p
correct but that pe could be a reflection of peak earnings
yes but you're trying to equate with a cyclical company hold on you're trying to
like hold on you're trying to equate that it's this you just said that it's overpriced and it's similar to Cisco in 2000.
Well, Cisco in 2000 was a 200 PE.
So I was going to tell you why I think you got to look at it differently, but you wouldn't let me.
So let me explain to you why you can't compare Cisco then and the PE multiple then to now.
But you did. That wasn't my comparison. That was your comparison.
That's correct.
I didn't bring up Cisco.
You did.
Yes, correct.
But you're turning it around.
You have to understand, you can't compare 99 valuations with valuations today like tech
versus tech today, two different animals.
People are accustomed to paying a lot more today.
There's a lot more money flowing through the system today, vastly more than there was in the late 90s. While there were high PEs
back then, those PEs were largely, you know, just a few names, you know, most of the companies,
by the way, how do I explain this to you? So back in those days, you had kind of, and by the way,
the same thing is happening that you touched on a second ago. Back in those days, you had a lot of companies that just had no
earnings, no revenues, no nothing. They slapped the dot com on their name. They basically got,
you know, they went to the moon of, you know, for at least, you know, for a short period of time,
and then they all crashed. Most of them went out of business because they had no business
other than a narrative. That is happening today. It's happening in spades.
Now, I think the difference today is people are willing to believe that this is going to go on,
that this is a new revolution, just like they were back in those days.
NVIDIA's earnings today, and they're multiple today,
may be a reflection of the peak in the
euphoria. People are placing these orders in anticipation of this new revolutionary
technology that's going to be deployed across our whole economy, and it's going to be fantastic.
That may turn out to be the case. We don't know. It's anybody's guess.
But that's what people are positioning for.
I was actually going to tweet out today
something I was thinking in relation to this
because to me, it's interesting.
What happens, maybe this was the question for you guys,
what happens if AI becomes what energy was
for the last 15 years? What happens if, because what energy was for the last 15 years?
What happens if, because, and let me, how do I frame this?
I was watching the news this morning, and there's a lot of pushback on a lot of, in a lot of jurisdictions,
a lot of states, a lot of municipalities, counties are pushing back against this AI narrative and database narrative.
And on a couple of different fronts, one front is the energy consumption, which is created
by putting these data centers in, which is, you know, driving energy prices through the
roof in a lot of communities.
That's one.
Number two, the idea of a lot of job losses through the economy because of AI.
So it's like a two-pronged approach.
And a lot of folks in a lot of these places are looking at it more and more, increasingly more as a negative to
their communities. And so just like energy became a negative, became like when you think about the
ESG movement over the last 15 years, and by the way, I've written extensively about this and
talked about it over the last decade about ESG and how it affected energy companies. And when I said in 2021, 2022, that we are peak ESG and it's a great time to buy energy,
that was literally the bottom of energy. And it was a huge trade for most people that had the-
Still a strong trade. I wouldn't even say that trade is over.
Well, it's still a fantastic trade. No, I agree. My point is that what happens in a situation where, you know, AI becomes that pariah, becomes looked at by.
I think it is. I agree with you. I think it already is the pariah. on the part of investors, especially institutional investors, to invest in a space that is looked at
negatively by municipalities, pension funds, foundations who have these ESG mandates,
you know, that people kind of step away and say, you know what, maybe this isn't such a good idea.
Maybe we'll take some chips off the table here. Maybe this rollout is too fast. Maybe we need to
really see what happens over the next,
you know, say decade or so. You understand what I'm saying? That sentiment is very finicky. It may change. It may change. And if it does, those multiples can come in. I think that's one of the
advantages of the U.S., where you can have 50. Now, every state is not identical to their neighbors,
but you basically have 50 simultaneous experiments going on where
every state has its own AI and energy policy and treatment, just like they did with ESG.
And if you don't like doing business in, say, Cali, you go one state or two states over and
you can put your data centers in Nevadavada and honestly you can still support all
of cali's needs and we see that we saw that all you you brought up energy and that's a great point
uh new york uh and cali might shit all over this or that energy source but then what do they do
they just quietly buy all their power from their neighbors they buy it but matt matt pennsylvania
they buy it from
Jersey. And I think that's what ends up happening with AI real quick. Let me just jump in here,
because I think we're talking two different things. I agree with that. I think that that
is actually happening right now. Places like Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Texas, for instance,
data centers are, you know, what's happening is a lot of this infrastructure is now being located in less expensive jurisdictions.
Yeah.
Jurisdictions where it's easier to put these in and you can get it done a lot faster, right?
The permitting is quicker and all that stuff.
I get that.
My point is that the investment dollars and the location of these data centers are two different things.
People, yeah, you could locate these things in the desert of Nevada.
That's fantastic.
Or Texas or wherever.
Or New Mexico.
But the problem is those states, right?
Those states are tiny states when you compare the investment dollars, right?
The pension funds in places like California, like Florida, like New York,
like the most populous states,
maybe Texas, say Texas, because Texas is quite large, but not anywhere near the size of like
California. So what I'm saying is the marginal dollar, the marginal investment dollar that goes
into these types of investments may actually start to trickle out. And that could be problematic.
So you have to separate where these things are going and where they're getting built
out to who's investing in it.
So if the investment dollars, if the, if the institutions start to kind of balk,
because from social impact, right?
This, this idea of, Hey, you know, AI is great, but a lot of people are going to be
out of work.
I read a stat today that somewhere up to upwards of 30%
of new graduates in the next couple of years. And by the way, I have a son graduating from
college this spring. Up to 30% is estimated of college graduates over the next two to three
years are going to be unemployed. That's an estimate. It could be higher, it could be lower.
But my point is that that does not scream good headline for the AI industry.
Sure.
But it's also inevitable. point is that that does not scream good headline for the AI industry. Sure.
But it's also inevitable.
And when I say the percent, it's fine. You have to think about the amount of people.
There are roughly three to five million graduates every year. Think about that. That means that,
let's just say there's three million, 30% unemployment in that cohort there's a lot hold on hold on there's
a lot to chew on there one i assume that all those graduates are not leaving college with the same
degree that'd be wild it doesn't matter what degree yes but different different industries
are going to get affected no of course but my point is as a whole okay the estimates are being
run are saying a third basically a third of graduates are going to be unemployed. I, yeah, I, I think that we're gonna, I think we're gonna have a lot of those crazy headlines
until we actually have some proof. But you have to appreciate the headline.
The headline is not good. The message is AI is AI as fantastic as all of these, uh,
you know, capabilities are with, you know, with, you know, with Rock, with ChetGP.
If I could just answer, before we move on to the next topic, let me just try to answer first.
I think it's going to be somewhere down the middle.
It can't be AI is a bubble and all these companies are crazy overpriced and they're overpromising and they're going to underdeliver.
are crazy overpriced and they're overpromising and they're going to underdeliver.
And then also, it can't be AI is so incredibly revolutionary that it's going to literally
give us 30% unemployment for our youth.
It can't both be the same thing at the same time.
Sure.
No, no, no.
One of those is wrong.
Either AI is just like the tech bubble and, hey, maybe this plays out over 10 years or
15 years, but it's not going to play out in less than five years.
Or two, AI is everything you think it is and more. And yes, we're going to see a lot of volatility in labor market, but these companies are not overpriced.
They're incredibly underpriced, and we are fools to sell NVIDIA at a 22 PE when they just told you they see solid demand for over the next year.
That's the one bit – if I could tie it back to NVIDIA.
Yeah, but stocks are –
Hold on. Let me just finish with this.
Let me just finish with this.
Stocks price forward, not backward.
Yeah. Yeah.
That's very important.
And Jensen just told you they have the demand so but here's here's the
big difference realize that earnings are slowing or peaked or maybe going coming down the stock is
already going to come down no no here's the here's the big here's the big difference between nvidia
hold on hold on let me let me just let you chew on this this is the big difference between NVIDIA and those dot-com tech boom
companies of 99 and 2000. Every quarter and every year that goes by watching this and watching
NVIDIA, it's been growing into its valuation. Its PE gets better. If you go back to 2000,
if you go back to 98, 99, 2000, every year that passed, Cisco's valuation got worse.
It moved farther and farther into a worse PE.
Its PE grew bigger and bigger.
But Matt, you have to line up the time series.
Yeah, what I'm saying is like – what you're saying is Cisco did this,
Nvidia's doing this,
and it's too,
if you were to line up the same time series,
in other words,
at the exact,
and it's really difficult to do
because in Cisco's hindsight,
we know what happened.
We know when it happened.
We know how it happened.
Yeah, but you can see it in real time.
You can see it in real time.
Its valuation was getting crazier and crazier.
But again, Cisco, listen, Cisco, NVIDIA is the Cisco of today.
Yeah, but its valuation is getting better and better.
That's the big difference.
I'm not sure it is.
Come on, unless you've stumbled on the biggest scandal in equities,
NVIDIA is lying about their earnings and lying about their EPS.
Listen, Matt, NVIDIA was this price last August.
NVIDIA hasn't gone anywhere.
Yeah, no, no, no, but its earnings per share has.
You're right.
What did I just tell you?
The stock price is still sideways, but its earnings per share has improved and improved.
Investors look in the future, not in the rear view.
Investors are telling you that the stock might be fully priced.
That's what I'm telling you.
I'll take the other side of that.
I see this as a...
You can take any side you want.
I'm just telling you the fact.
The fact is the price of NVIDIA today
is the same as it was in August,
but you're telling me it's improved drastically.
Yeah, it does.
Come on.
You know better than anyone else.
If the earnings per share is getting better.
Matt, Matt, Matt.
If I was an NVIDIA investor in August of last year and I bought that last top, that was a top in August.
Now we've traded sideways.
Now we did have a big move.
We had a big move into the 200, low 200s, and we're back to this 180.
We're back to where we were last August.
So if you're an NVIDIA investor and you got in in August of last year and you're back to this 180. We're back to where we were last August. So if you're
an NVIDIA investor and you got in in August of last year and you're sitting here holding the
stock today, you have to ask yourself a simple question. Based on all the things you just said,
based on all the things that Jensen has said in the several, you know, public-
Interviews. Yeah.
Yeah, exactly. All of the stuff that's happened in the last seven months,
the stock has gone nowhere, but you're making the case that's happened in the last seven months, the stock has gone nowhere.
But you're making the case that the stock is better today.
Okay, so you can make a case for consolidation.
But I would submit to you the stock should be higher
based on what you just told me.
The fact that it's not tells me investors don't buy the story.
Investors are looking forward saying,
we are literally looking at peak earnings.
That's what the stock's telling me.
That's what it's telling a lot of investors.
You can't argue with the market, Matt.
The stock is where it was in August.
Yes.
Right now, the risk to reward right now is horrible.
I agree with...
If I could answer.
Yeah.
Compare it to its other fellow mega caps.
Yes, NVIDIA is the same.
You can't compare it to other.
This is a unique company in a unique niche.
No, you can't.
Who are you going to compare it to, man?
Every single one of the Mag 7 have.
Who are you going to compare it to?
Name one.
Every single other Mag 7 have not only one foot, but both feet and two in AI.
Name a company you can actually make a reasonable comparison to, to Nvidia.
Would you say Microsoft's in AI?
Yes.
I would not say you can't.
You cannot make a reasonable comparison between them.
Would you say Meta's in AI?
Yes.
Would you say Tesla's in, Tesla?
Matt.
What?
Come on.
These are not the same businesses.
You're comparing apples to oranges.
The other Mag 7 are literally
a majority of NvidiaVIDIA's sales.
Just because they belong in this made-up acronym, MAG 7,
doesn't mean you can compare these companies.
Yes, do they have some overlap?
Sure.
But NVIDIA is a completely different animal than Microsoft,
which is a completely different animal than Apple,
which is a completely different animal than Meta.
These are not companies that you can just compare and say,
oh, look, this one shows up this multiple.
These are NVIDIA's biggest customers.
They are.
These are NVIDIA's biggest customers.
I'm just, all right.
I guess we can agree to disagree.
I would be worried.
Let me answer your earlier question.
How can you compare a company back to a customer?
Let me answer your earlier question. a customer i let me answer earlier obviously
if i had something different than the guy that's providing the service or the product
it's in a different business well let me let me answer your first question if i had bought nvidia
in august 2025 right that was that was your question and uh you're right okay six months
later it's still the same price that I bought in at.
It's seven, eight months later, not six months.
All right. Sorry. Seven, eight months later, even nine months later, whatever.
It's a year later.
Just sit around and do nothing.
Yes. Okay. A year later, if the share price was still the exact same, but I've seen not one, not two, not three,
but four quarters of beating EPS,
beating revenue,
the PE coming down, not up.
I'm staying long and strong.
I'm not going anywhere.
The value of my shares is improving.
You're putting the cart before the horse.
The reason that happened
is because people were anticipating this demand in these earnings.
And here we are.
And it's proving out. And it's proving out.
And I want to be there for the next run.
So in order for the stock price to continue going higher, you have to have a reasonable – you have to make that same reasonable assumption that that is going to continue.
And based on where the stock price is today –
And I think that's reasonable today.
You just had NVIDIA's CEO go on CNBC and national television,
anyone who would listen-
Well, he's the biggest cheerleader of his company.
He has strong-
Of course.
He has yet another year of over a trillion strong demand.
Yes, absolutely.
Were you around in 99?
John Chambers was saying the same shit.
Yes, but who's John Chambers?
Yes, the CEO of Cisco during those days.
Well, I don't even, see, that's a great point.
I don't even need to know the CEO's name because I can see his PE and the valuation of his company getting worse in 98, worse in 99,
worse in 2000. We can have a reasonable debate about this, but the reality is the stock hasn't
done anything. Listen, investors vote through the stock and they're telling you through their votes
based on where the stock is today that they don't believe that the stock can go higher unless there's a reasonable assumption
that they can accelerate their earnings,
accelerate their revenues,
continue to have these margins.
I think people are taking a wait and see approach.
Now, you may be right in the end.
If we wait for a year or two,
we wait, say, four quarters, eight quarters,
and we look back, the stock may be at 250.
And then you can say, hey, I won.
It's more expensive today or it's the same price, same multiple today.
But the price is higher because they're knocking the cover off the ball, right?
You know, they're hitting on all cylinders.
That may happen.
But right now, that's not what investors are anticipating based on where the stock is trading.
This glitch, did we glitch?
Matt, you there, bro?
I think something happened.
I heard someone's talking, but they're very quiet.
Anyway, look, there's no doubt it's a wonderful company.
And Jensen's done a fantastic job.
I'll give you a little tidbit of information here.
Back in 19, this would have been, well, not 90. This would have been early 2000s, probably 25 years ago.
2001, maybe. I think This would have been early 2000s, probably 25 years ago. 2001, maybe.
I think it would have been 2001.
I actually called Jensen and talked to him on the phone one night.
I was working at a Wall Street firm.
I was young.
I was probably 28, 29, something like that.
I was in my late 20s.
And I was working late one night.
I was already married, no kids yet.
So I spent a lot of time after hours.
And I'm on the West Coast.
So, you know, West Coast, we work later than the guys in New York.
The guys in New York come in earlier.
And so anyway, it was probably around 6 o'clock, 5.30.
And I was just kind of calling tech companies in the area,
talking to the treasurers, talking to CFOs,
treasury management and some other things.
And I happened to call him and I talked to him on the phone.
And I remember having a discussion with him for about 15 minutes
because his stock actually went and crashed
and it had a really significant rebound.
And I pitched him the idea of having like a collar to put on his stock.
I still remember this.
I actually talked about this on a space a while back.
You fast forward, you know, remember this. I actually talked about this on a space a while back. You fast forward, you know, imagine this, you fast forward 25 years and, you know, the stock is, you know, the largest company in the world.
And 25 years earlier, I was talking, pitching this guy on the idea of putting a collar on a stock because, you know, it had cratered and had like a 50% run.
It had like a 50% run and no one knew kind of what was going to happen.
And, you know, no one knew what kind of what was going to happen.
It actually made a new low after that before it made another high
and it was dead money for many, many years.
But anyway, it's just kind of funny how all that works.
So I guess the point is you just never know how things are going to work out.
We all speculate.
We all kind of want to make assumptions based on the information we have today.
And it's really hard to do.
Anything can happen, you know.
Cisco, by the way, going back toisco uh by from peak to trough uh it was down 90 uh did this space
crash i don't know no no still here i know it's just wabi's i don't know if wabi's still anyway
yeah cisco dropped over 90 percent picture trough let me tell you, do you think for a second that anybody that owns Cisco going into 99,
2000, all the guys that invested in Cisco made fortunes, would not sell it because they
just believe that the stock's going to continue to go higher?
Incredibly, two years later, it was down 90%.
Think about that.
It's just, and this was the largest company in the world at the time it was down 90%. Think about that.
And this was the largest company in the world at the time going down 90%.
By the way, no one would believe that would happen back then,
just like no one believes it could happen now.
And it's happened over and over throughout history.
The question is, when could something like this happen
and what would trigger it?
And it's always the same thing. It's always a decline in revenue, decline in margins. And by
the way, what ends up happening is investors, again, are forward looking. Remember, when you
buy the stock today, it's different than buying the stock a year ago. If you're an investor in it
from a year ago, you have a different perspective than a new guy coming in today. A new guy coming
in today, buying the stock today, has to believe, has to believe what you believe. If you don't,
then you're not buying the stock. And in the meantime, the guys that got into it a year ago,
Matt, that are sitting on it without any, you know, waiting, you know, say they got in, you know,
in August or summer of last year, and they're basically flat. They're questioning now their
thesis here. Like, what is going on? The AI thing is booming. Everything's booming. I'm hearing all
this boom everywhere. And yet the stock isn't doing anything. How long can you hold the stock
before you kind of just say, you know what, I'm going to move on to something else?
Well, yeah. I mean, now we're getting into the debate of like, are you a short,
medium-term trader or are you investing?
Well, ultimately, time is money, right?
I'm not talking about day trading.
I'm not talking about day trading either.
Let's put that to the side.
And full disclosure, like look, I shared up in the nest.
I bought – when we were going through the tariff capitulation liberation debacle this time last year, I bought NVIDIA.
I was like, what's the easiest surefire if this thing gets resolved and Trump tacos?
What is the easiest surefire bet I can make?
Well, I bought Bitcoin and I bought NVIDIA.
And so I got NVIDIA at like the, I don't know, I bought Bitcoin and I bought Nvidia. And so I got Nvidia at like the,
I don't know, 195, 190. And then I sold it at one, excuse me, at 95, 90. And then I sold it at
190. So, hey, better than a double in less than a year, I'll take it. But, and then I said,
like, you know, everyone's asking like, well, where would you buy back in?
At the time, this was several months ago, I said, well, I'll buy back in NVIDIA at $160, $150.
Absolutely.
But that was months and months ago and a couple of solid earnings ago.
I don't think I'm going to get the price.
I really don't. I don't.
NVIDIA has missed one earnings in the last decade,
and that was 2022. They've missed once in their entire public reporting history.
And if you're getting Jensen telling you he sees solid demand and orders well into 2027 of totaling over a
trillion, I'm going to probably take his word. I'm not shorting. I'm not betting against him.
I'm going to take him at his word. I know. I get it. I get it. But I'll throw you a bone.
I'll agree with you here. If NVIDIA – hold on. I'll throw you a bone. I'll agree with you here. If NVIDIA was trading, if the perma bulls and the hyper bulls had pushed NVIDIA to something like a 55 or a 95 or a 155 PE, I would stay away.
No thanks.
I'm not interested.
But at 22 PE, man, right now I'm looking it like, I feel like I should have some leaps.
I feel like I need some call leaps on NVIDIA for 2027+.
You got to get out of this mentality of it's just cheap. So it's, you know, I got to get in because
it's cheap. Remember, cyclical stocks are cheapest at high, you know, at really good times. I mean,
you know, right now, it seems like it's a really, really, you know,
they're firing on all cylinders.
Their earnings are fantastic, right?
Yes, but that's – but I'll bring it back to the tech bubble.
They'll be trading at 150 times earnings when –
There are plenty of companies trading at ridiculous earnings.
There are plenty.
I think – yeah, you know what I think is going to be a good sign of kind of like what,
because I think the more important question here is like, all right, like what, what,
what's going to signal like that the party's over? Like that, you know, maybe,
maybe it's time to rotate out of Nvidia or anything related to Nvidia, right? Anything related to AI.
to NVIDIA, right? Anything related to AI. I would say, what if unemployment isn't one bad month?
What if it turns into one bad quarter? Well, I don't think it has anything with employment.
I think if you- Yeah, jobs, employment, absolutely.
So I would say companies like Caterpillar, somebody brought Caterpillar up earlier about
how great that stock has done and it has been absolutely on a tear.
You know, when all of a sudden Caterpillar starts to have problems,
when they start to report that, you know, maybe the revenues and earnings or maybe their margins aren't as good as people had expected,
that's a sign that the party might be kind of long in the tooth here, right?
You never want to be the last one leaving the party, believe me.
Yeah, but by the time
these companies report bad earnings,
it's almost too late.
You know? Right.
But by the time they report bad
earnings, like that's the definition of last
to learn, right?
You are literally, you
and every single other person
that watches CNBC are the last
to learn that NVIDIA missed earnings or Caterpillar missed earnings, right?
Like that's too late.
By the way, anybody that's selling into this ecosystem.
So you think about all of the industrial names that have done fantastically well in, you know, anything related to building out of the electric grid, anything related to the heating and cooling, anything related to the power generation,
which is Caterpillar, you know, all of these kind of this ecosystem of industrial companies that are in this space, when they start to report earnings that aren't as good as people
had anticipated, not bad, just not great.
And their stocks start to fail.
That will be a telltale sign that the party may be getting long in the tooth you know
and you're going to see and by the way nvidia may already be sensing that you know when you look at
the stock what's interesting is if you look at where caterpillar is and the performance of
caterpillar versus the performance of nvidia caterpillars handedly outperformed nvidia since
last summer i mean since six seven months. That's what I'm saying.
But which company is more at risk if AI is a blip or bubble?
Is it Caterpillar who just probably had some of its best quarters ever
riding the AI build out? Or is it
Nvidia who, okay, maybe demand slackens, but come on, they still have a monopoly in the form of their
chips. Like, you know, in a, in an odd way, Nvidia is the most conservative, most rational way to play AI. Everything else is more risky.
Oh, no. Sorry, I had a call. No worries. Yeah. So, I mean, look, NVIDIA is the center of the
ecosystem. If NVIDIA were a galaxy, it would be the black hole, right? So it would be
Appa Centauri, you know, and so everything revolves around it. So I think, you know, one,
another indication we might want to look at as investors, where we are in the cycle is once
these AI companies start to go public, maybe this year, you year. Because I think once you start seeing
kind of a public valuations being placed on some,
all of this, there's a lot of behind the scenes here
that's private.
A lot of these deals are of these AI generative companies
like ChatGPT, for instance.
Yeah, and Tropic Cloud.
This is all, yeah, exactly. So this is all kind of behind the scenes. We're only being
told what they want to tell us. And it's really hard to say what the economics really look like
behind the curtain. And so public investors have really no way to really put their finger on
actually what's going on, because a lot of it is going on behind the scenes. So I think another
indication might be that once these companies start to go public
and if the reception is great,
and it will be for the first few weeks probably
because there's, you know,
in Wall Street, by the way,
this is a marketing machine, right?
Wall Street wants to take these companies,
any company public.
You'll only hear the good.
Yeah, we don't want to take companies public,
you know, that are lousy.
This doesn't look good for you. Throw in SpaceX with XAI.
Yeah, exactly.
That's two bubbles.
So I think that we need to wait
to kind of see how things wash out
during that phase
of these massive companies going public.
But my sense is, Matt, and again, we could argue until the cows come home yes um but i my sense is matt and again
we could argue till the cows come home where we are my senses were towards the latter innings if
not the last inning you seem to be more of the like earlier mid-innings uh kind of guy no i'm
the music is still playing as long as nvidia is still beating the music still plays sure and
prince famously said during the you know months before Citibank's stock collapsed
that you've got to keep dancing while the music's playing.
And then, of course, Citibank went to 99 cents, and they did a 50-for-1 reverse stock split.
So when you look at Citigroup's stock today, it's nowhere near its all-time high because of a 50-for-1 reverse.
So my point is that when you hear those types of things,
those are the little alarm bells that are going off everywhere
that should signal to you that maybe this, you know,
remember the best time to invest always
is during market crashes, uncertainty,
when everybody's bailing, everybody is completely
besides themselves, everybody's panicking,
everybody's throwing everything out.
That's the best time to invest.
The best time to invest is never in euphoric environments.
Now, you certainly can chase, right?
There's nothing wrong with chasing
as long as you can get out in time.
Most people don't.
That's the unfortunate thing, you know?
I think there's a third danger of selling too early and refusing to let your winners ride.
There is that too.
And it's hard to say.
Yeah, that's a big problem.
How many people sold gold early?
By the way, that's an interesting point.
How many people sold gold too early?
Well, I think it's a great time to buy gold still.
I think when you look at the precious metal sector as a whole, and we talked about Caterpillar for a second, John Deere, Caterpillar, these companies are not only in AI gold, they're in real gold, right? These companies are selling to mining companies. These companies sell heavy equipment to guys that are digging deep holes in the ground looking for, you know, silver, gold, platinum, palladium, and other metals. So the point is that, you know, the commodity space, I think, is a fantastic
space. And if you look at, and this is, by the way, a great segue, Matt, because if you look at
the environment around tech, specifically AI, infotech, if you will, and you look at where
mining companies are, you look at where precious metals are. I think precious metals as a component of the S&P 500,
including the mining stocks,
kind of industrial segment and everything,
is still, I think, I don't know, like 3% maybe, maybe.
I think it's less than 1%.
I think it's like 50 bps of the S&P 500
is precious metals related.
Something like that, 20 to 50 bits.
Last I looked, and I think it's when you include industrial companies
like Caterpillar and that ecosystem around precious metals,
I think it jumps up a little bit to maybe like 2% to 3%.
So my point is, and by the way, 30% of the S&P 500,
over 30% right now is in infotech AI related. OK, so if you think about how this might play out going forward
over the next, say, three to five years, my suspicion is that we're going to see the pendulum
swing from one side to the other side, where the investors that are selling the stuff
that's like worked out the best
over the last three to five years
and buy the stuff that's not worked out,
that is starting to work out now.
And I think you're gonna close that gap
because that difference in weighting
is just absolutely astronomical.
You don't need a lot.
And by the way, you don't need to pick up a lot of room
in precious metals and commodity related
names to say you say you work.
You went from, say, like a 30 basis point S&P allocation to 1% and 1% is still nothing.
You know, still 99% of the index is something else other than precious metals.
So even if it went to 1%, that means a lot of these names can still double or triple
or quadruple. Right. So there's a lot of room for investment in this particular space.
Yeah, I agree. I mean, whether you're looking at energy or utilities or metals, like you said,
even throw in industrials, it got down to a silly low single digit weighting in the entire S&P 500.
If you added all of those up at one point in time in 2025, I remember those Bloomberg
headlines of you could literally own the entire energy utilities, materials, and industrials
sectors, and it would barely hit double digits
waiting in S&P 500.
That's how lopsided IT and financials
and even healthcare had grown.
I remember, by the way,
I've talked about this.
Crazy over lopsided.
Yeah, I've talked about this
in some of our spaces
over the last year or so.
I remember in the kind of 2014, 15 to 2018 timeframe,
the revolution prior to the AI revolution, which was 3D printing.
And you had dozens of stocks.
You probably remember that.
That was a flash in the pan.
Yeah, you had dozens of stocks that went up hundreds of,
or some of them thousands of percent in a very short period of time
because it was a revolutionary sector.
We were going to 3D print everything.
Everybody's going to have a 3D printer at home.
You're going to be able to 3D print your utensils, anything you need for your home. You're not going to need to go to Home Depot.
So that whole space just absolutely went from literally nothing to billions and billions and
billions of dollars. They were comparing it to Star Trek replicators. Like I remember that.
I was just coming into my career. Yeah. So yeah, exactly. And a lot of those stocks,
like literally 99% of those companies went out of business.
The other 1% got bought out.
But that is a great example.
But if you look at the public ones in that timeframe, this was roughly, what, 2015, 2016 into 2017, right?
They never produced any earnings to show for it.
The valuations were silly and they got sillier.
They never made a profit.
They never produced any earnings.
By the way, Matt, we're making progress here, Matt.
We're making really good progress here.
Because again, going back to Cisco, going back to NVIDIA,
going back to that build out of the internet
and the periphery
companies around that. So Cisco was that Sagittarius A, just like NVIDIA is. It was the
center of the galaxy. It was the black hole. NVIDIA is what Cisco was. Now, the stars clustering
around, the companies clustering around Sagittarius A, those were all the companies that were kind of feeding off of it, right?
They were the ones that were making all the things that went into what Cisco was using and then the companies that were buying the stuff that Cisco was selling.
And so that ecosystem was very robust.
But the further you got out from the center of that galaxy, the fewer and fewer companies actually made any money.
the fewer and fewer companies actually made any money.
The vast majority of the companies
and the vast majority of the stars in the galaxy
that are on the periphery,
those companies did not make any money.
And there's vastly more of those
than the ones closest to the center.
And so just like then, just like now,
I think you're gonna see the same thing happen
where a lot of companies in that AI ecosystem
just don't make any money.
They just don't.
That's very fair.
I agree there. So that's how I look at things. companies in that AI ecosystem just don't make any money. They just don't. That's very fair.
I agree there.
So that's how I look at things.
Yes, you are right.
There are certain companies like NVIDIA and many, many, by the way, hundreds that are
making money, have great margins right now, are feeding off that ecosystem.
But there are vastly more that are on the periphery that aren't making anything.
They're just kind of sitting and waiting.
And either they're waiting to get bought, which
in some cases that happens if they have a compelling technology, or they're just kind
of like, you know, they're like the, the parasites that eventually kind of, when the host dies,
they die.
You know?
Yeah.
Now, if you wanted to say, I think what better example of who's the Cisco of today, I think
it's Tesla. I think it's honestly, I think it's Tesla.
Honestly, I think it's Tesla.
Well, Tesla's a whole different animal. I don't even want to talk Tesla.
But if we reduce it down to its basic premise,
they're promising you a future that year over year over year
just still doesn't deliver in its earnings and their PE.
The valuation year after year
after year gets worse.
And I see that as a Cisco.
Like, I don't care what you're selling, but if year after year, it still never comes to
fruition.
And okay, wait, the things you promised in 2020 never happened.
Okay, the thing you promised in 2025 still never happened.
Now I'm waiting on 2030.
I don't care what you're promising. If It never actually delivers and you never make a profit.
Yeah, Tesla is actually a great example of all narratives. But yeah, I see the similarities there. And the PE even matches out. I don't know if you're staring at your chart right now, but Tesla has ballooned from a PE of –
You're comparing Tesla to who?
Tesla is the Cisco of this.
Oh, no, no.
Yeah, I completely disagree.
I think you can compare Tesla to Cisco.
No, but look what it's doing.
It's doing the same thing Cisco did.
the same thing cisco did it's gone it has ballooned from a respectable pe of 34 to 50 back in 2022 and
It's gone.
2023 to 200 and freaking 50 at its max in 2025 it was 450 it's come down to at least 250 but every
year the pe the valuation gets sillier not better that's a's a Cisco. Yeah. Like I said, I wouldn't compare Tesla.
Why not? I know you, I know you're no fan. I know you're no fan.
Listen, Tesla is nothing more to me than just, it's, it's, it's a hot potato. It's, you know,
it's being, you know, there's always a constant narrative change. Tesla is somewhat, you know, it's funny, funny enough, like Tesla is like Bitcoin.
They're promising you a future that never delivered.
Like that Cisco.
It's kind of like Bitcoin, in a way.
Tesla is kind of like Bitcoin, right?
The narrative around Bitcoin, but I would rather own Bitcoin than Tesla.
No, I agree there too.
I mean, I agree there too.
But my point is that it's constantly narrative driven and it's shifting
from one narrative to the next. When one narrative gets debunked, we come up with another narrative
to own it and why this narrative works better and why it's bigger, the market's bigger for it and
all this kind of stuff. So, you know, Tesla is nothing more than a narrative driven, you know,
kind of, you know, it's the original mean stock, you know, that's kind of how you have to look at Tesla, you know, and do they have some earnings? Do they have revenues? Sure. Do they
have earnings? Sure. But again, you know, it's, you know, selling cars is not a really great
business, you know, it's a low margin business. And I think Tesla knows that, which is why
Elon and his management team have constantly been shifting the narrative away from the car business and into, you know, things like, you know, robo taxis, robots.
That's still the car business.
Robo taxis is just the worst margin car business.
Right.
I mean, I agree.
I agree with you here.
I think we're I think we I hear the passion that you're speaking with. And I love I love chopping it agree with you here. I think we're – I hear the passion that you're speaking with, and I love chopping it up with you.
But I think we agree on way more than we disagree.
There's a lot of – there's a lot out there to be dubious of, and now is the time to reanalyze everything.
It's funny. I was just looking at the title of the space.
Wabi's got this title bottom
is in question mark um and if you think about which i thought was kind of funny is the bottom
it's all clickbait bro i i do everything to generate an audience bro we're all of this is
entertainment dude entertainment dude look entertainment puts the asses in the seats and once you have that you
have to provide good trades i mean in q1 we got oil we got sandisk we got hyper liquid
like i'm in the business of entertainment what's the next yeah what's the next thing
that's the thing energy like you have to ask yourself like why are you here right and like
what are you providing and
honestly dude like i've gone into some of these other spaces and nobody knows what they're doing
when it's not a super easy market and that's when you actually see who's the cattle and who actually
like puts their foot down who's the shepherd and who's the sheep yeah yes yes dude matt who's early
who's early and who's exit liquidity as we say like like and one of the most consistent people
dude that have been here on these spaces is matt bro and you listen to some of these other guys
and the only thing they know how to say is is stack cheap sats um and and i mean at some point
we can do better than that you know yeah at some point you have to
recognize that like shitting on all coins and shitting on growth companies um is is basically
labor you're putting yourself out there as a boomer who just can't trade yeah well not just
that but like hey if if the whole thing was if if we want to just say stack cheap sats, great.
We just said it.
And all right, it's been good.
You know, like and subscribe.
Comment down below.
You know, we'll see.
We'll do it.
We'll see you next week.
Like we could wrap this in five minutes if that's all we wanted to talk about.
Right.
And crypto news, like there's literally nothing going on.
In crypto news, there's literally nothing going on.
It's Brian Armstrong trying to appeal to younger audiences by playing Subway Surfers, the game's called.
It's that little TikTok thing.
That game hasn't been fun in a decade.
He's got to pick a newer, more recent game than Subway Surfers.
Anyway, but you asked, Wabi, like, okay, 2025 was AI, like throw a dart at anything AI and you made money.
I think 2026 – and we're still brand new.
This year is only two, three months in.
2026 is going to continue to be the year of energy.
I truly believe, like, throw a dart at anything energy and it's
gonna do well like there's gonna be some i think memory's gonna be pretty good man
wabi you had some metal playing at the beginning of the space uh yeah that's uh i play the same
songs because like i've tried experimenting with other intro music yeah and the algorithm just does not like that like i usually
know i like it i i that's i was i was i was just thinking listening to it i should be in the gym
uh on on a bench or squatter or uh or a deadlift mat listening to that but you guys were talking
about subway surfer the game have you heard of the of the of the band butthole surfers i i have not but i shaved my face and the market liked it
like i actually like shaved so you might actually you might actually like the butthole surfers uh
i've been listening to them since i was a kid uh they've been around for a long long time uh and uh
they got some good some good music so check them out on it go to Apple iTunes and punch that in
that might be something that that you might want to listen to while you're pumping some iron
but anyway yeah and shout out to AI guy man like at least you know he has he has Bitcoin in his
name but at least like he throws some alpha and some plays and all that stuff you mean
yeah he's a night he's a young kid.
I don't know.
He's probably mid-20s, I would imagine.
He's in his 30s, I think.
Oh, is he?
Okay.
I think.
You know, that's...
I think.
Early 30s, I think.
Yeah, I got T-shirts older than him.
But, you know, it's good to have the young people
and the older people and the really old people
conversing, you knowing through a medium like this because I know we make fun of the boomers.
I'm not a boomer.
I'm a Gen Xer.
I listen to the boomers.
When I first started in this business, let me tell you, I was in my early 20s.
And I remember we didn't have the internet yet there was no internet there was no cell phones i
didn't have a cell there were cell phones but it was like the motorola flip phones you know so but
there were there was no way to communicate ideas were you gording gego with the big fat phone no
that was after that was before me that was about five years before they don't make movies like
that but i did i tried seeing casino, I didn't like that movie.
That movie bored me to sleep. My point is that when I started,
there was no way to communicate with people
as a young guy
and to be a sponge.
When I was early 20s,
I think I started, I was 20.
I was 22 years old
and wet behind the ears.
I, like many of these young bucks on FinTwit, thought I had it all figured out.
I had read a few books.
I would watch nightly business report.
And this is, by the way, before cell phones, internet, all that stuff.
So if you needed, if you wanted information about investing and trading,
there was only one place to get it.
And that was books or the Wall Street Journal, right?
In print.
So you went to the library, you went to the bookstore, or you talked with people in the business.
And so what I did is when I was, when I first got my job, I was a sponge and I would listen to the old guys, which I considered boomers.
By the way, many of those guys that I, that would, that, that kind of took me under their wing as a mentor.
Boomers as what? Yeah. Many of those guys that i that would that that kind of took me under their wing as a mentor boomer says what uh yeah many of those guys are now dead they're they're they're long gone they
died years ago and i can tell you i learned a hell of a lot listening to the boomers the old guys
there's a lot of wisdom in listening to the old guys you may disagree with them you may have a
completely different uh uh you different view than they do,
but there's a lot of wisdom in the people that are older and have been around, have been in the trenches.
And I just remember the lessons I learned,
the information I gained from those people,
again, mostly they're gone now, is invaluable.
It's just invaluable.
And for the young guys in a lot of these spaces,
rather than throwing shade at the really old boomers, accept the fact that they're old boomers and become a sponge and at least try to get as much, you know, knowledge and information as you can.
And you can disagree with the information.
You can disagree with the views.
But and I did.
You know, I thought I had it all figured out.
And but I still asked a lot of questions
and it was still a sponge
and I told this to my kids
don't just scoff at old people
listen to them, ask them questions
That's exactly why
I always bring up Uncle Joe
to kind of level out the room
Hey, that was
speaking of boomers
speaking of boomers I wanted a nice segue. Speaking of boomers. Speaking of boomers.
Well, I wanted to jump in as that old guy.
I've been working out at the gym, listening to you guys,
but I thought I would jump up because I'll be 57,
so I'm a little bit older.
And some of the stuff you guys were talking about,
I thought it was kind of evident who lived through some of those things
and who didn't.
And I do agree that we can all learn from each other.
I learned a ton from folks that are younger and some folks that were much older than me.
What I will say, as someone who started a company in Silicon Valley, sold it to Cisco, when I heard you say, who's John Chambers, it made me smile.
And when I heard you say, who's John Chambers, it made me kind of smile.
But I would say the Cisco that's existed the last 10, 15 years is nothing like the Cisco of the 90s.
Back when that was going on, PE was modest, and then they would beat earnings religiously by a penny.
So when you're talking a lot about NVIDIA, I think it works until it doesn't.
I think Jensen was very smart to not do a collared deal.
I think he knew what he was building.
But now that they're at $5 trillion,
you don't just go $5, $7, $10, $15 trillion.
I think on the AI guy that's in here,
the way I think about alpha and stack and stats is coming up with a portfolio where you can monetize as you're going, take the cash and then redeploy it into what's working or indices if you don't have a better option.
So with AI guy dealing with iron and cipher, if you come up with a thesis that say, okay, currency is going to get debased, bingo, the Fed's got a print, we have $100 billion a month of interest and a $40 trillion debt,
it doesn't take rocket science to realize, you know, many of us older folks, we've seen this
before. They're going to print endlessly. They're going to have cute names for quantitative easing.
You're going to see an endless array of up
and to the right with all risk assets. And that's going to work until it doesn't. I think for the
next 12 to 18 months, it's going to work very, very well because you're going to have Powell
who is going to be eliminated from the Fed. Besson has to refinance $10 trillion. Trump
wants to run hot. So they're going to put in a new Fed chair. They're going
to drop rates. They're going to refinance $10 trillion. They're going to drop $100 billion
a month of interest payments, but they're still going to print money like God. So printing money
will work until it doesn't. In the interim, you have to have a debasement trade to protect against
all the downside, but risk assets are going to continue going up and right.
Are you sure you sold the business to Cisco?
I did, yes.
So that was the first.
I'm a recently recovered NASDAQ CEO from a company that I built.
Ran privately for 10 years, four years when it was public.
Then I left, sold it all, bought Bitcoin because they were going to ruin the company I created.
And they sadly did that.
But it worked out fine for me.
But what I would tell you is that I think you're going to see breathtaking up into the right for the next 12 to 18 months, independent of the war.
And I think you're going to be fine being in these longer dated,
you know, whether you're buying leaps or straight calls, that's fine. On a pinned tweet I have,
I actually put my entire investment portfolio and I updated every one, three, four months,
depending on what's going on. But the thesis is simple and you can monetize along the way.
So the alpha that I've tried to tell people who say I have no money to invest, I'm all out of money, is take something like IREN
and Cypher as an example. If IREN is at 40, write covered calls at 50, cash secured puts at 30,
collect the premium, redeploy either in the common or in other parts of a flywheel of what
you like or just stack sets.
If you're dealing with Cypher and it's at 15, cell cover calls at 20, cash secured puts at 10.
Take all the premium, roll it back in and do the same thing.
Use the Fed's money printing, like the return on the Qs and the SPY.
Alan, let me ask you a question.
Yes, sir.
You made a point.
Some of the stuff I do agree with you on um
there's some things i don't but the things i don't like you do name one thing name one thing
hold on you said uh you said that there's going to be this massive wave of refinancing which of
course is going to happen over the next 12 months it's happening now finance 10 10 10 trillion plus
uh close to 11 trillion.
And you said we're going to be cutting rates in the face of that.
Who is going to be buying all this debt at a much lower rate?
Who's willing to?
So ironically, it's going to be.
I suppose.
Hold on.
Let me just finish the question.
I suppose you could run it so that we refinance it like we have been, which is short term,
I suppose you could run it so that we refinance it like we have been, which is short term, which means that we're going to be up against this barrel again in 12, 30, 36 months, 48 months, or we do it longer.
But if we go longer, who's buying it? Who's willing to buy our debt? The massive quantities of this debt at a higher clip.
So have you thought about that?
In deep, deep, deep depth. So the way I believe you're going to see it play
out, and I'll say this qualifying a few things. So one, I engage with Treasury, the White House,
and others as regularly as possible because a small group I have own probably about $450 billion
worth of very old Chinese and Russian debt and are taking
actions to go after the central banks that failed to pay those.
But my ties to Bitcoin are because my hatred of the Rothschild Central Bank and the desire
to eliminate those.
But until we can, they're going to print more and more money.
And to your point, who are the buyers?
Of course, Russia stopped buying.
China stopped buying.
But what they're doing is using legislation to solve this. They started out with various bills.
And when you saw the Market Structure Act or the Stablecoin Act going through, what are they really doing?
They're turning Bitcoiners into the buyers of the debt. So they're going to refinance at much lower rates.
They'll do a blend of, they're not going to do it super short term, but they're going to refinance at much lower rates. They'll do a blend of,
they're not going to do it super short term, but they're going to do a blend of these things
with longer durations. And then in parallel, they're going to mandate that every stable coin
has to take our fiat dollars when we convert it to stable coins before you buy Bitcoin,
and they're going to force them to be the treasury buyers. So Russia and China are going to go away,
and ironically, Bitcoiners are going to be the source of,
whether it's a few years or a few decades,
we're going to be the buyers of that debt
because that's going to be the reserves against the stablecoins.
Hey, Joe, I'm ready to bet you, by the way.
Let's go.
What would you ready to bet you by the way let's go yeah what what would you like to bet well not you gotta put up we gotta put up more than 500 bucks bro first of all first of all these
deck conversations are so boring and redundant first of all we know we rolled nine trillion
dollars worth of debt last year in the united states okay because federal government rolled nine trillion dollars of the debt it
wasn't from stable coin buyers the bulk of it came from t-bill buyers the stable stable coin
buyers de minimis it's not even worthy of discussion at this point you're talking about
a few hundred billion dollars it's around at this point yeah and the next 10 years, they're not going to be anything significant.
They're not going to get to a trillion.
Even Besson's own projection says we get to a trillion in 10 years.
That's de minimis.
And with inflation, that's nothing.
So that's not a material amount of buying.
The same buyers that bought last year are going to buy this year.
Who are they?
Money markets, pensions, insurance companies.
They're the whales.
They're the big buyers in the game. Okay? Federal Reserve, pensions, insurance companies. They're the whales. They're the big
buyers in the game. Okay. Federal Reserve has been out of the game. They've been engaging in QT
for the foreseeable future. They will continue to have a stable balance sheet. In fact,
if Warsh gets his way, they want to roll down that balance sheet. So to O's hair's point,
like who's going to buy the $10 trillion in debt? It's going to be the same people that bought it
last year when people were bemoaning about the $10 trillion debt that needs to get rolled. It's not going to be stable coins.
So I'm not trying to suggest that 100% it's going to be some
magic binary switch. It won't be 5%. The legislation isn't even
in place yet. So of course it's going to be de minimis. I don't even disagree with you
about it. What legislation isn't in place yet? What legislation? I've written papers
on all the legislation that's in Congress. What legislation isn't even in place yet? What legislation? I've written papers on all the legislation that's in Congress.
What legislation isn't even in place yet?
So I think that most of the market structure components that they're going to use to actually say—
There's nothing to do with treasuries.
What?
There's nothing to do with treasuries.
That has nothing to do with purchases and compulsory purchases of treasuries.
Nothing to do with it.
Okay, so I'm not sure whether you're trying to argue that—
I'm not saying that the legacy purchasers just magically go away.
Russia and China have scaled back immensely.
Russia and China are not the bulk purchasers.
The same insurance funds.
They haven't been for 10 years, okay?
The bulk of purchasers are domestic-based.
They're not foreign.
Anybody wants to talk about debt?
How much debt is foreign-
70% of U.S. debt is bought domestically, yes.
Thank you, Matt.
You've actually done the homework instead of people that pretend.
How much is bought?
You're talking about the minority.
I'm sorry?
Stu's larkin' hard.
Hey, Cheech, your voice is a little bit too deep,
and you're bass-mogging everyone here.
So if you can maybe like increase the the higher pitched
so a lot of us aren't intimidated that that'd be this guy definitely voice maxes unlike me
yeah i mean evan he makes you sound like like like a pipsqueak because bitcoin you have to check out
my music man i'm taking over the world here that's you're using uh something to manipulate
your voice obviously right yeah i think that's his thing dude i think the only time he's ever
spoken in his normal voice was when um the space is turned into thunderdome which hopefully happens
really soon i like it i i really i i really enjoy it when these faces turn into a zoo.
Actually, you know, that is his real voice. Chich is actually three foot six inches tall.
He's like the guy that was, what was the, what was the guy that, he's dead now, but he,
he was in the band, Kid Rock's band, the little guy. What was his name?
What was his name?
Joe C, like Joe Calisari.
Joe C.
Oh, Joe C, like Joe Calisari.
Except Joe Calisari is like three of those guys tall.
Dude, I always thought it was Calisari.
Yeah.
It is whatever Joe says it is.
Joe, what are you seeing in the market, man?
How are you doing?
What calls have you gotten?
I'm doing well. Joe Bale. He's in cash market, man? How are you doing? What calls have you gotten? I'm doing well.
Joe Bale, he's in cash.
He's in treasuries.
Bitcoin to all-time highs by the end of the year.
No, my biggest, actually, the position that I'm up 20% on recently that I'm very happy with,
well, actually two, the calls i have on uber uh have exploded
since people said uber was gonna die and uh and netflix netflix when nick when nick g told me
netflix is toast uh it's my position my spot position on that's up 22 since i bought the
lows on netflix so uh thank you very much nick i love nick but what about wgmi matt what's going on with them mining stocks yes the this
the greatest sounding ticker i've ever heard wgmi that's like that is amazing it's almost as good as
nibbius you know nibbius is two different have you seen have you guys checked out WKRP? What is that, dude?
That sounds like some boring...
Is that Workday?
WKRP. Check that one out.
I think they're out of Cincinnati.
Is that Workday? What is that?
Didn't DocuSign have a stock before, Matt?
The flashback from the 70s.
I love that.
Brandon got the joke.
I totally get it, brother.
I got the Gen X. I get it.
Damn. Oh, it's a radio joke. Okay, I get it. I totally get it, brother. I got the Gen X. I get it. Damn.
Oh, it was a radio joke.
Okay.
I get it.
There you got it.
You guys are young, man.
It was a show.
It was a show.
I mean, if you said like kiss.
The guy's looking for the WKRP ticker.
He's like, what is that one?
I got to have it on.
WKRP.
I'm blanking on the, what were some of the famous radio stations like LA
ATLA. Yeah.
WKRP
in Cincinnati. That was a show guys.
Come on.
It was like
Laverne and Shirley those days man.
Way back in the day. That was a great show. That was a
fantastic show in the 80s. Great show.
Anyway. You know what? I'm sorry. What was a great show. That was a fantastic show in the 80s. Great show. Anyway, you know what?
I'm sorry.
What was the question?
I forgot.
No, we were just talking generally about the markets.
You know, it's really interesting.
Like, you go into a lot of these spaces and people have these sort of bipolar views.
You have this melt-up crowd that thinks like everything's going to rocket
and explode higher because
Warsh is going to come to the rescue
and the government's going to quote unquote.
Yeah, that's O'Hare.
You've got the melt-up crowd
and then you've got the meltdown crowd
who says it's all going to go to hell
and we're going to go into some giant recession
and private credit's going to destroy the world
and CNBC's non-stop
just talking about private credit. Every day I turn on Jim Cramer is talking about private credit's going to destroy the world and CNBC's non-stop just talking about private credit.
Every day I turn on Jim Cramer
is talking about private credit.
The point is, like, have anybody thought, like,
the message the market's saying is, like,
just a whole lot of chop and a whole lot of nothing
for, like, a foreseeable future?
I mean, I don't know why people have to get locked
into these sort of diametrically opposed
bull or bear views.
I mean, a lot of times markets can just consolidate
and do nothing.
And I think that's
the most likely scenario.
Joe, but it's what I'd say.
In general, you can take
and flip a coin on one side
or the other and say,
it's going up, it's going down,
or it's going to chop.
Okay, great.
The reality, though,
is you think leading
into the midterm.
That'd be a three-sided coin.
No, but I mean,
the reality is that
you think into the midterms
that when you've got things that are deflationary like tariffs and robotics and automation and AI,
you really think that they're actually not going to print tons of money, drop interest rates and run hot,
saying that the deflationary forces are going to offset the inflation and therefore we're going to pump the market to have better midterms.
There's no way this guy has dough. I don't know whatterms. There's no way this guy has dough.
I don't know what you mean.
There's no way this guy has dough.
I'm just telling you right now.
I don't know what you mean by print.
Not a snowball's chance in hell.
Because everybody uses that term differently.
If you're talking about the Federal Reserve rolling up its balance sheet
and exploding it by $3 trillion, which, by the way,
we're off like $3 trillion off the high.
So all these people that come into these rooms in LARP about, oh, the Fed's going to print.
They've drawn their balance sheet down by like a third since the pandemic high.
So where's the printing there?
But in terms of the government spending, okay, yeah, we're going to run structural deficits.
That's not net new, you know, expenditures.
And by the way, when you run a structural deficit, what is that happening mechanically?
That means the government goes and borrows from the private sector, meaning it takes money from the system and then it redistributes it through borrowing, through treasury issuance.
That's not quote unquote printing.
So, yes, I absolutely do not believe they will be printing this year.
Will they be spending money?
Will they be doing the Trump accounts during the, you know,
Trump's going to give every kid that was born the last couple of years
a Trump savings account to juice the markets?
That's going to be $1,000 coming in.
That's going to be some net.
It's not even spending, though.
It just sits in someone's.
Yeah.
It just sits electronically in someone's account.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So, like, people say these things,
and I don't think they fully understand what they're even saying,
like printing. Like, what does that mean? You mean the Fed? I don't think they fully understand what they're even saying like printing like what does that mean or you mean the Fed I don't think the
feds gonna be engaging hold on Josie hold on a second hey because Bitcoin can I be serious for
a minute uh sure why not man bro you you you have a couple of hottie you have a couple of
hottie crypto chicks in here I'd like to do a shout out i am not going
to i was thinking the exact same thing i'd like to do a shout out to deviled megs one of the
she's not real none of them are real
tell me there is a chance because bitcoin don't blow it for me see see chitch is a boomer see he
has no idea look man here's here's the thing dude look look you either become no i'm not gonna i
can't say i i don't i i flat out think this entire app is mostly guys,
and there are very few people that are not guys.
So this is like a sausage fest?
She's real, dude.
She's real.
No, they come to listen to Trich's voice.
It's honestly, it's mostly boys and a few men. That's mostly boys and a few men that's mostly boys or it's a guy managing
their account and they just upload the photos to put on a front that's just my my dubious
speculation josey give me some props for wearing wartime appropriate attire just your gain is too high i'm just disappointed we haven't heard a new beat drop
from you in like dude i just dropped the new song i just dropped i just posted it on twitter today
i've been working i dropped a new song a new video and a new song oh good i'll check it out
thanks we're actually breaking out on like we're breaking out on BTC right now. We're hitting, like, 75 right now.
Let's fucking go.
Let's fucking go.
O'Hare?
O'Hare's gonna cry tonight.
He's gonna have a pillow wrapped around his body crying tonight.
You wanna know?
You wanna know?
Last month, Joe asked me about Tao, and I said it was trash.
Don't buy it.
And it's up 100%. I'm sorry, Joe asked me about Tao, and I said it was trash. Don't buy it. And it's up 100%. I'm sorry, Joe.
I just want to say that.
I asked you about Tao for a different reason, about prospective litigation.
What is that?
I don't even know what that is.
So basically, Tao is like this.
Litigation is a means to issue to resolve disputes.
Is that like ass tea?
My goodness, dude.
I don't know.
It's just some gibberish.
But yeah, so Tao is like this AI thing where at the beginning, it's proof of work, and
you weren't able to buy it when it first started in 2022 you actually had to go behind a 7-eleven and um do like some sort of
like transaction there it's basically the way you do that were you on your knees when this
transaction took place no no no i was actually i was actually aura farming um hold on a second i aura oral forming did you say aura aura farming dude
yeah i was aura farming with the members only jacket i'm sure you know what that is
probably not something you want to admit to but go on yeah so i i was wearing a members only jacket and i was
hearing is this love by white snake during the transaction that's fantastic by the way white
snake is one of my all-time favorites and i do have a members only jacket still in the closet
somewhere that's that that's pretty based man see there's a reason why members only is still
i think my son i think my son borrows it from time to time.
You're quite fortunate you never met Tawny Katane, to be honest with you.
Dude, there's a reason why Members Only jackets have survived in Supreme jackets.
They just went out of style in like a year or something.
But Joe, what do you like, man?
Like, what growth names do you like
you're talking about stocks yes you want to take stocks yeah crypto
no no no i know joe loves all he's asking about growth members growth members is what he's asking about joe's joe's giant hype
oil big yes big hype i know he loves hyper liquid i know he does he um well i mean i i mean i i'm
i'm into more stocks guys so i'd rather i mean i i think personally and you're gonna call me crazy
here but i think mu looks great um i'm long MU, full disclosure, heavy long.
I have a significant position.
I accumulated just recently.
I bought more in the 360s.
Now it's at 3, what did it close at today?
Oh, it's at new all-time high post, wait, no.
Yeah, new all-time high today.
Yeah, I'm sure they're going to run right into earnings.
What's that? I said, I'm sure they're going to run right into earnings. What's that?
I said, I'm sure they're going to run right into earnings.
Who's bearish before earnings on new?
Yeah, I mean, look, here's my overall philosophy on this, okay, guys?
Like, as software continues to get cannibalized and it's a race to zero,
what are the areas that are not going to be
as easily cannibalized that have a high risk reward and that's the semis and i don't know why
people keep missing this like i constantly hear this hand wringing about how semis are overvalued
whatever like to me it's a core holding in your portfolio and should be for the foreseeable future
oh hair is not going to like it because it's not deep value, but it's fine.
Hold on a second.
We have semi-exposure, so get out of here.
Oh, do you?
Of course.
Intel.
Intel, I forgot, because Trump won.
You bought a bunch of Intel, and you got bailed out because Trump won.
That's all you need to know.
Listen, it's not for the video.
How does it feel that your semi-position got bailed out by Trump, who you hate?
Oh, my God.
Give me a break. It got bailed out. The guy who you hate? Oh, my God. Give me a break.
It got bailed out.
The guy he hates more than anything on the planet saved his best investment.
Yeah, right.
I mean, he gave you excellent money.
He didn't sell into it.
He said it for BK.
No, no, no.
He said it for BK.
He gave you.
He gave you.
This is what happens when you talk to fucking rookies, okay?
This is what happens.
He gave you...
It was headed for BK.
I'm just kidding.
Take it easy.
Fucking rookies.
You're so easy to get riled up.
You're easier than Darkseid to get riled up.
He literally did give you exit liquidity and take the win.
Like, sell...
Exit liquidity?
What do you got?
You are...
Are you retarded?
Listen.
Listen, you were just banging the drums on NVIDIA.
We talked about NVIDIA from last August to now. Let me tell you something, okay?
NVIDIA is flat, essentially. It's up like 4%, something like that.
Intel up 80%, even after this drawdown here. 80%.
Oh, okay. Listen, listen, I'm gonna take a check.
Thank you, President Trump.
Stop, man, man, man, man. Listen, listen. I'm going to take a check. Thank you, President Trump.
Stop, man, man, man, man.
Including Trump.
Get out of here.
Get out of here.
All you guys.
Get out of here.
I got a question for O'Hare.
I'm going to steal our good friend Jaguar's question.
O'Hare, I want to know at least two pain traits right now that you got.
He always asks that, man.
Let me answer that first.
Shrek Dick is number one. That's the first
pain trade. That's the ultimate pain trade.
Brother.
Number two
following George Noble's
short picks right now
at the trough.
What's George shorting right now? He trough. What's George
shorting right now?
He's shorting everything that's going to be going
up in the next week.
Parabolically.
You're going to get me in trouble,
Cheech. Come on, stop.
Yeah, he's a character, man.
I love George,
but he's gotten so loudly bearish here,
I think at a point where I don't know if I'd be stepping in this bearish right here.
Look, I think, listen, if you just look at the indices as a whole,
I think we're not making new ground here.
We're kind of treading water.
I wouldn't be surprised if the bottom falls out.
Treading water is not a paint trade.
I want a paint trade.
Oh, paint trade? I don't know.
Look, I think the pain trade right
now, I think is gold and silver
miners. That's the pain trade.
Kinross
gold. I own some of that. That's a good one.
That's a good one. That's a good one.
I own a boatload of it. Anything to do with precious metals
that's the pain trade. Because
everybody's kind of thinking it's done.
It's played out.
I think we're going to see new highs this year.
Don't let Joe see for you, by the way.
Crypto attorneys don't make that much money.
Okay, okay.
I don't.
I'm poor.
I want to know, United Therapeutics.
Yeah, me too.
Would that buy?
United Therapeutics?
I'd rather buy Bitcoin. United Therapeutics, O'H United Therapeutics O'Hare
Yeah you know I don't own it
So I'm not gonna you know I don't know
That's that's
X-List
How's my X-List position should I trim it
I'm gonna hear
E-X-E-L
Should I trim it?
are you here just to brag or what?
no I'm asking you
I'm asking you if I should trim it or not
I don't know you're asking me
questions on names that I'm not
he needs to know your wrist tolerance
your birth date
and your
he needs to know your
time horizon yeah what your goals are go nevada franco nevada do you have any of that we don't
uh we don't own franco uh we don't own royalties um royalty companies but it's a good one um there's
nothing wrong with franco nevada what's your what. What's your – what gets you excited about Intel?
I'm just curious on that.
Just go back to that.
Like what – is it the earnings are bought in doubt and they're going to turn a profit eventually?
Maybe Trump will increase their stake from 10% to 15% or 20%.
It has nothing to do with Trump, guys.
nothing to do with trump guys i don't know why trump got involved with intel it certainly wasn't
I don't know why Trump got involved with Intel.
It certainly wasn't part of our thesis.
part of our thesis is that isn't that such a isn't that such a hidden it was by the way just to be
it was already moving before it happened anyway so this idea that oh trump is like you know that
i'm a bag holder of intel because can't you just give him a win you can't give him one win
i just want to know why you're excited to hold it now.
Like, why would you be a buyer of it now rather than a seller?
Well, you think even right now, I mean,
we think the stock's going to quadruple over the next few years.
That's not a...
What, you want me to give you my whole thesis?
Off of what?
Off of all of a sudden they'll stop losing money?
Like, what's the why?
What's the why? What's the why?
Why will it triple?
Well, I said quadruple, not triple.
Oh, my bad.
Didn't mean to be a bear.
Well, it's just, it's a very, you know, listen, there's a lot of moving parts with Intel.
One.
I'll give you this.
One.
I'll give you this.
Give me a moving part.
One of them.
Well, Matt, here's the thing.
First of all, you should do your own due
diligence don't listen don't listen to me all right listen to me if you're opening salvo is
i need to do my own research you should do your own due diligence yeah i'm not here to like pitch
but i'll give you i'll give you a kind of like 50 000 foot view intel has been an ongoing trying
wreck for a lot of years. This has been a developing story
for a lot of years. This is just, Intel just didn't, you know, everybody's talking about
Intel now because of the Trump administration. But Intel, Scott, it's the only company in the
United States that's pretty much, it's the 800-pound gorilla when it comes to fabrication.
So there's that.
So there's that. They have a portfolio of IP that's completely misunderstood.
They have a portfolio of IP that's completely misunderstood.
They have the ability to, I think, sell some assets over the next few years.
They have already recently, and I think they're going to continue to, where they're going to be able to pay down at least a portion of the debt that they have.
This company is probably going to look a lot different
in five years than it does today.
And, you know, there's going to be a lot of value
that's going to be created over the next, you know, over that time.
So, again, if you're interested in it,
I would encourage you to go and, you know,
look at some of the recent filings.
Do you think they reinstate the dividend?
It's going to be a while before they do that.
I don't think they're going to do that anytime soon.
Oh, no.
But you don't invest for a dividend with Intel.
But, you know, listen, and I'll say it again.
I think Intel, and I said this before,
it's going to outperform NVIDIA.
It's going to outperform a lot of the names
that you guys talk about over the next three to five years.
Remember, we are looking in the... What what about far coin we are looking we are looking through the windshield
not the rear view mirror if you're looking through the rear view mirror mu amd nvidia
you know taiwan sent all these stocks about performance you know what's crazy man if pepe
actually goes in a higher time frame uptrend far coin is probably going to a few bucks
Hell yeah
I think I think I think those I think far coin
Pepe rises guys long
I think we should start looking at some of those trades again. Yeah. Yeah
Yeah, this is a top signal when you're talking about Farcoin, man. It's not a top signal.
Top signal? That shit's been
left for dead, bro.
Remember
you guys that these meme coins
could go to zero and will go to zero?
Oh, you're
going to give me that holier-than-thou
fucking BTC
fucking pledge. Got it.
No, here's some easy...
I don't even...
You know me.
I don't even mess with crypto.
But here's some easy alpha that you should remind yourself.
Anything from past cycles is going to underperform this cycle.
So, like, I'm sorry.
ETH's deader than a doornail.
And Solana is going to lose the hype.
Just think of it that way.
Everyone's going to chase.
Everyone's going to like,
I missed Doge the first time
and the second time, but the third time,
Here it is.
Uranus.
We're going long.
Alright?
I mean, if you're going to play...
I mean, in terms of what...
I don't bother.
I don't bother with it.
But if you're really going to play crypto,
you should only be looking at stuff that gets created now.
Nothing from the past is going to...
You're going to be in a world of hurt if you do, by the way.
Hey, Shogun, say something, man.
It's just funny listening
to the unks think that solana is gonna lose its steam you didn't hear that from me no it's matzy
bro you want to you want to compare hype to solana i don't own either of them but it's not even close
like they're two different things brother that's two that's apples
and oranges it's all volume it's all volume hype is perpetuals it's perpetuals decks no one cares
they're they're they're they're predict they're bidding on oil predictions on hype they're not
doing diddly on solana it's all just it's a volume game. Where is the activity going?
It's not the Solana.
The second the market runs back,
you're going to see every single little kid trading memes on Sol.
Like, that's just, that's just what happens.
It's a race.
Yeah, let's all go by Sui then, right?
It's a race to zero.
It's a new, it's always a new chain for the new crypto creation on your L1.
It's all broad and depth.
We were having this exact same conversation in 2022.
Just you wait for the bear market to end.
ETH is going to be where all the new coins get created.
Wrong.
It's happening again.
Different bear market.
Same shit.
All right, Matt.
So all we've heard is everything that's going to go wrong and what to stay away from.
So give me some FALFA.
Give me some FALFA, mofo.
I just told you.
What's wrong with that?
You don't like 80% in 50 days?
What did he say?
That's not good enough.
What do you got?
I just said you don't like plus 80% in less than 50 days.
What's wrong with hype?
Hype?
How about hyperliquid?
I don't even own it.
Oh, hyperliquid.
How do I know about it?
Okay.
Yeah, yeah.
Are you fucking with that or are you just talking about it?
I'm just talking about it.
I don't mess.
We call that LARP. In my't mess we call that in my world we
call that larping i pay attention to the whole market i don't own everything yeah i mean i mean
bro you gotta own it all man what are you doing i remember we were talking about soul when it was
like still consolidating after it had that pullback from 27 it was consolidating between like 15 to 20
um we were we were i think we were i was live with trader xo uh the day that soul bottomed and
vitalik made that tweet and i remember hearing the same shit like ah why would you trade anything
outside of bitcoin blah blah blah blah blah and then i mean the market just went ballistic all over the place not just
not just that one remember remember i was saying like knock is not here to defend himself but he
was the one who kept saying no no no no no no i gotta but but this but this was the hypothetical
i was talking i mean he had base right that was that was that was cool and and and by the way but none of the fees go to the i know i
know i know but something to pay attention to man is and i mentioned this last week is crypto options
um and right now on chain most of the options flow uh is under is on derivative um and that is something that i think people aren't accounting
for because right now um off chain all the volume is on daribit and from what we've seen
in crypto whenever there's a new sector right um if you remember dydx right there was dydx and then gmx all of these platforms that
tried being um on-chain per platforms right the concept was good but they weren't the products
that survived and so now we look at options the greatest inch the the instrument that people love to use in Trotify to make their money
is options
options, options, options
and what is the new
narrative and the new hotness this cycle
it's prediction markets lobby
and where can you do both of that kind of shit
hype
and Robinhood
I agree with you that
and guaranteed people are buying hype on Robin Hood.
It's all synergistic.
But this is...
Wabi, we're going to be joking about this two and three years from now.
The same shit is happening. People are talking about like, oh,
I'm going to run back the previous cycle cycles playbook and this time i'll be
first i'll be early no it's over that is done it's not going to be another we're not going to
have another what l1 is the most popular chain to invent meme coins on that was last cycle it's
already happened it'll it'll onto the new shit yeah it'll still be around but like the velocity of
things yeah it'll exist i mean velocity like seeing yeah yeah like seeing something like
spx 1900 right mirad called that out at 10 mil and it didn't move until i think it was like two
weeks before cz got out of jail and then it started to mark up from 10 mil to two bill um in like a month and a
half or whatever it was that kind of velocity um i do think it'll come back but it's just there's
going to be so they're going to be other things that have higher ceilings i think you know like
you're actually going to see um luna or avax type plays where you can buy something at a cheap valuation and run it to tens of billions.
I mean, Hyperliquid is still less than $10 billion market cap.
It does have unlocks. That's the thing. Hype does have unlocks.
Yeah, but so did Solana and so do all of them. But it's still less than $10 billion market cap.
Solana is over $50 billion market cap.
Like, honestly, in your heart of hearts, which one's more likely the double, triple, quadruple first?
It's just a probability game.
Both.
Both of them are.
Hey, where's D-Lev?
I think he's on
I think he's on somewhere, I think.
somewhere, I think.
Hey, guys, I wanted to
say that
for once, I agree
with O'Hare
in terms of NVIDIA.
Completely
agree. It's been trending water
for a year and a half.
That ship has sailed.
It hasn't been trending water for a year and a half.
It's up 54 percent over one
year it's been treading water for about nine months hold on a second hold on because you're
you're including the dip in april but if you look in november of 2024 it was about 150 bucks
okay um let's just chop off hold on a second you said one here
if if you want to pick a high water mark then i'll go with it but you said one year
i said a year and a half for the last year and a half it basically has been in a range of primarily
150 to 180 and for what the company has been saying, these expectations are built in. That's
the way it is. Now, O'Hare said something that I have to comment because, you know, I'm also in my
50s. And I've noticed that people my age, they go one of two ways, okay? They either just hunker
down and, you know, you talk about you being a sponge in your 20s.
You have to be a sponge again, right, in your 50s.
And a lot of times people, they're not sponges when they're in their 50s.
They think they know it all.
They've seen it all.
And then they just are very hesitant and resistant to new stuff.
The younger generation, the 30, the 35-year-olds,
they're going to continue to buy Ethereum and Solana and Hyperliquid.
They're never going to buy mid-cap value.
That's just something that's a reality, right?
They have their own thing.
They buy what moves.
Everyone was buying gold in 2025, 2026.
Let me just address this. Hold on,26. Let me just address this.
Hold on, man.
Let me just address this.
Volatil, I appreciate you agreeing with me on the video,
but here's what I would say.
What we do in terms of our daily routine,
managing a portfolio, our expertise,
what you just referred to,
like I need to get out of the mid-cap value wheelhouse,
small mid-cap value wheelhouse and do other things. Those are two different things. Like,
our business is exactly that. It's deep value, special situations, kind of in the mid-small,
mid-cap space. That's what we do. That's our expertise. So we're not going to, like,
go out and jump into some other areas. But I agree with this. I agree that the older guys like us, and I'm 50 now, just turned, and that we should not
preclude ourselves from learning from the young guys, getting involved with some of the new things.
I agree with you. This is why I spend a lot of time in crypto spaces, for instance,
because I want to know what's going on. I want to learn from these younger guys.
What are they interested in?
What are they doing?
Not because necessarily I'm going to be doing it, but it gives me an idea.
It gives me kind of some insight into what they're thinking, how they're operating,
kind of what they're feeling, the general construct of kind of the risk on, risk off
environment.
So I think that's important.
You know, so I agree with you.
I think the older guys, us, our age, 50s, 60s,
we do need to, you know,
we at least need to listen to the younger guys.
We don't necessarily need to agree with them.
Just like I didn't agree, I listened,
but I didn't necessarily agree with the older guys.
So you're right.
I think, you know, something I always say
is you're never too old to learn, right?
Learning is a lifelong process.
It's something you do constantly.
You're constantly learning.
And if you're not, then you're doing something wrong.
So I agree.
I think we need to be open.
Us older guys need to be open to at least listening to the younger guys and see what
kind of what is going on in kind of their world, if you will, right?
in kind of their world, if you will, right?
But here's what I have to say.
But here's what I have to say.
I think all this crypto stuff, all of it,
all of this stuff we're talking about,
all the crypto stuff, to some extent, by extension,
maybe even kind of what's happening in AI,
everything that we've been living through
the last 16 years now is a function of just
very loose and aggressive monetary policy,
QE1, 2, and 3, a massive collapse
going into 2009, and then a massive rebound on the back of a lot of different things,
a lot of accounting rule changes, a lot of money printing, just a lot of stuff that's happened
over the course of the last 16 years. I'm not sure that the next 16 years are going to be the same.
Right. I just I don't believe that to be the case. I think we are going to at least to one
to some extent go back to basics at some point. And this free for all with, you know, you guys
are talking about hyper liquid, all these cryptos, all the mean stocks that are going off, you know,
AI and all the kind of various companies within the ecosystem of AI, many of which don't make any money.
I think all of that stuff at some point, we're going to have a coming to Jesus moment.
And we're going to go back to basics.
I don't know when that's going to be.
I think we're probably closer today than we were yesterday.
We're closer today than we were yesterday.
What is back to basics?
What is back to basics?
What's that?
What's that?
That's when O'Hare puts back on his zipper pants
and rocks his mullet.
What?
The parachute pants.
That's what you're talking about.
Parachute pants.
Back to basics meaning...
Let me explain it this way.
There's so many facets here.
But in late, I think the most, what I try to do is distill things in the lowest to the lowest common denominator.
Like, how can we understand this in the simplest form?
And I think the simplest form, the simplest explanation would be, when I say going back to basics, we're going to go back to times where fundamentals matter, where money just doesn't grow on trees,
where we can't just depend on the government to just save us at every turn, that risk-taking is
going to not be taken for granted. Those basic things, those things never go out of style, okay?
They ebb and flow, right? You know, going into the Great Depression, there was a lot of free-for-all in the 1920s,
which led to a lot of, you know,
kind of risk off over the next several decades,
which, you know, which then led to a whole different,
which, hold on, which led to a whole different environment
in the 50s and 60s, which then led to, you know,
again, a collapse of the nifty 50 in a 16-year period
where the stock market didn't go anywhere
and we had higher inflation and commodities did really well.
So again, guys, historical precedent is set.
It's just how do we paint the collage today
in a way that makes the most sense?
So when I say back to basics,
that's the kind of stuff I'm talking about. I mean, in my heart of hearts, I would like that. I just don't see any evidence of it
happening. I look, you know, president after president. Well, you never see evidence until
you see evidence. And by the time you actually see things happening, things have already started
to change drastically. Okay. But if I could – all right.
Administration after administration, I see less fiscal responsibility.
I see more debasement.
I see more money printing.
I see more irresponsible managing of crisis, and the way to get out of it is papering over it with even more fiat than ever.
Matt, you know this saying, right?
You know this saying, right?
This is a very famous quote, right?
Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
You've heard that before probably a few times.
So this is what we have been doing.
We've been doing this over and over and over.
And eventually what we do is going to lose its veracity.
In other words, it's like, think about it like a vaccine, okay?
If you use the same vaccine, yeah, exactly.
If you use the same vaccine for five, 10 years, right, it's just going to lose its efficacy.
It's not going to work.
So, you know, pharma companies are constantly updating the vaccine to the changes in the environment around, you know, the virus.
So, similarly with economics, similarly with finance here, you know, we're constantly, you know, having to change.
And I think, you know, we haven't really done a lot of changing.
We've been doing the same thing for, you know, the better part of the last 15, 16 years. There's a whole generation. I think we're getting long in the tooth. And unfortunately,
I think a lot of people, you know, are going to be left holding the bag. You know, again,
I'm not saying it's happening tomorrow. I'm just saying, let's be real here. This cannot continue
forever. This, the system we have, the way we have it is not sustainable in the long run. It just isn't, you know? So, O'Hare, have you thought of this, right? Because every, like, good investor,
trader thinks of three scenarios, right? They think that things will go down, they can chop,
or they're going to go up. Have you ever thought, all right, and there's a possibility, I just don't
see many people entertain this option that I'm about to tell you. Have you ever thought that
maybe this hasn't even come close to peaking, right? And I agree with you. I agree with you
in terms of the whole fiat, the printing. But, you know, I see things like these wars in Ukraine, Russia, and now in Iran.
This is fuel for the old fiat system. And, you know, I actually think that this is going to go
parabolic over the next, you know, maybe 12 to 36 months. And it's only going to get more of a pump clearly the companies that are really
making money that have great business models they're they're going to you know go up and stay
up let me ask you let me ask you do you believe that because of your i really believe that i
believe that with because of everything that you have or do you know, it's not a bias. That's important, right?
Yeah, it is.
It's not a bias.
It's based off of sentiment.
I don't hear ever.
And usually, you know, the outcome that really actually ends up happening, it's usually the one that no one is looking at.
And you know that, right?
And you know that, right?
You lived through the 2000.com bubble.
You lived through the 2000.com bubble.
I went to a conference in Vegas in March, okay, in 2000, and it was just all these analysts just stroking it, saying how great the market was.
Literally a week and a half later, the market imploded.
What year was that?
March of 2000, the peak of the market.
Yep.
The market imploded. So you the market so yep the market imploded conference in march
no one no one warned about this okay and and if they did they were like under a rug in a bunker okay that's just the way they are everybody The day of the top.
I was literally running down the street in my neighborhood with my shirt off, telling people this was it.
Like in the movie?
Like Will Ferrell?
To be fair, though, I did warn everybody who had multiple properties.
I didn't realize it would actually be as bad as it was.
I really had no idea it would be that bad.
But I did warn everybody with multiple properties that I said, run for your life.
Get out of these and stop speculating in real estate.
I knew it as sure as anything I've ever
known in my lifetime. And people laughed at me. They thought I was insane. Well, people laughed
at a lot of people. Look, I remember the famous speech that Bernanke gave in front of Congress
where he said that subprime is contained. It's contained. And if there is a problem with residential housing, it's going to be limited to, you know,
subprime borrowers.
It's not going to be systemic.
And by the way, what's interesting is that was in 2006.
So remember, the stock market peaked in 2008.
Think about this for a second.
Yeah, but this is very similar and
by the way i don't think i hate macro spaces just so you guys know i hate this kind of shit because
this doesn't help anybody like make any money this is like this is like what d love does he gives you
history lessons no i don't think so no but here's the thing like look i just so you guys know like I remember people coming into my office and
trying to get me to invest in subprime uh you know uh lending debt all those c you know
uh cdo's all that garbage and I remember it you know know, very clearly. And I just, I was just, I was actually
too stupid to understand it. So I was like, I'm good. And, but I can tell you that a few years
back, I was getting hit up by Apollo and Blackstone and all these people for private debt,
these private debt funds.
And they were blowing me up daily.
I mean, it would be like four to six calls like every four days from these guys.
And the only thing I said is I think I'm too stupid to understand it, but it really reminds me a lot like back in like 2006, you know,
with the CDO situation.
And I couldn't understand it because I'm like,
why do I need to get 8%?
And this was two years ago when treasuries were literally,
money markets were 5%.
You could get a two-year treasury bond at 5%.
People forget that in 2006 2006 at the time that
bernanke made those statements in front of congress the 10 year was at six percent yeah so
let me just let me just finish this thought so like i i couldn't figure it out because i'm like
okay let me get this straight i can get like eight and a half nine percent in private credit or i can get five percent in a
two-year treasury bond it made zero sense to me like the risk reward wasn't there but they kept
saying there was no risk you get this great yield but like anyways the whole point is all that
shit's unraveling and one of our friends that o'Hare, and I see Frank down there,
knows well, not well, but well enough.
I called him and I said,
if you have any exposure to this shit,
get out of it.
Find a way to get out of it now.
It took him like a year to unravel it all
and get out.
But he did get out.
But I'm just going to tell you that this,
I don't know.
There are smarter people than me. I'm just not to tell you that this, I don't know. There are smarter people than me.
I'm just not smart enough to know.
I don't think this has nearly the tentacles that the CDO market had because that was tied to most people's largest asset, which was housing.
You'd be surprised.
You'd be surprised.
There's so much leverage in the system right now.
And a lot of it is very opaque.
Exactly. I'm not smart enough to know. It's there. I don't know if it's as big.
I don't think it's as big, but I definitely think it's probably a little bit bigger than most people are saying it is.
Well, let's put it this way. Think about it. This is the thing that this is,
again, let's distill it to its lowest common denominator.
Okay, the worst loans are always made, right?
Always when times are good and money flows
and interest rates are low.
Those are the worst loans,
the worst lending practices are where
no one's really paying attention
and everybody thinks that everything's great
and it cannot fail, everything's fine,
and it's gonna continue on this way.
Those are, in environments like that,
that's when the worst loans are made.
The best loans are made in crises
because everybody buttons down,
everybody really starts to sharpen their pencils.
And so if you think about it from that perspective,
and then you look at the last 16 years,
you ask yourself the question,
what environment have we been living in?
Have we been living in an environment
that people have been sharpening their pencils
and really doing the due diligence
when they're underwriting loans
or investing in the loans
and these packaged structured products,
the CDOs that you talk about,
collateralized debt obligations or CMBS or ABS.
I mean, the reality is a lot of these things
that have been done over the last 15 years
have been done in an environment
that's been very constructive,
very low interest rates, very liquid markets, okay?
So then you ask yourself, how bad could it possibly be?
And whatever you come up with, okay,
it's probably worse than that.
But O'Hare, what you're seeing now,
right now, the sentiment in the market is not overly bullish at all. You have people that,
like Michael Burry with Substacks, monetizing bearishness. The rise of these precious metals is all about the bearish sentiment.
That is what's predominating.
There is – I don't hear anybody say, hey, what if this bull market continues for another 10 years?
And all I'm saying is the more likely outcome is the one that no one is thinking about. Okay. That, that you don't hear anywhere.
Okay.
I hear, I hear what you're saying, what you're saying, as far as the printing of the money,
all, everything you're saying is factual, right?
I'm not denying it, but that's what everybody says, especially guys.
It's critical.
What you just said is critical.
Think about what you just said.
Back up for a second.
It's what everybody, it's what no one expects, okay?
What does everybody expect?
What has everybody been expecting the last few years?
That everything is okay.
You hear everything on social media.
Everybody's saying market crash.
Gold's going to fucking 10,000.
Silver's going to 200.
That's what you're hearing.
Hold on a second.
Volatility, that is just recent.
That's recent.
That's in the last few months and quarters.
For 16 years, it's been unfettered, just risk-taking.
So you're right to point that out.
Now we're starting to peel the onion and realizing that maybe that the inside is not as fresh as we had expected.
That this may actually be rotting from the inside
out. And so you made a good point. It's like we've been living in an environment that's really
been a risk-gone kind of, and by the way, crypto is a great example of this. You guys were talking
about, you know, Fartcoin and Pepe and all these kind of things. All of these things, okay, are a
byproduct of the easy environment we've been living in, the zero interest rate environment, reaching for yield.
Look at the high yield.
Look at high yield spreads are still historically low.
Have you thought that people in their generation of the 25 to, let's say, 35 year olds, they are they see things being stacked against
them and they're not going to make money the way people are age and even older. They're going to
take higher risks. They're going to be buying hyper liquid, hoping that it goes to 90.
Sure. They will. They will. They're going to do their own thing. Volatility.
They will until they can't.
And if we have a correction
and a significant one,
they're not going to do that.
But also think about it.
What if they're right?
What if they're right
and things do 5X from here?
What if Ethereum does go to 10,000?
Well, listen,
they could,
they could fight.
You're absolutely right.
And listen,
any outcome, right?
Any outcome is a valid outcome.
But we have to, you know, what we have to do is we have to look at those outcomes and,
you know, kind of look at it from a probabilistic set.
Like, what is the probability of this outcome versus this outcome, right?
What is the probability of a 5x outcome from here versus a 50% correction from
here? You know, that's kind of how you have to do it. And you have to do it on a grading scale.
And I would submit to you that we're probably closer to a correction than we are to a 5x.
I think there's a greater chance that Hyperliquid 3 or 5x is from here
than NVIDIA doubling. I do not own it. but i've been watching it and during this whole
downturn during this whole i don't own it during this whole downturn because i i'm trying to gauge
what the sentiment is of the younger generation you think it's gonna 5x from here why if you
think that why not own it it it because it could it could well i'll tell you i'll tell you
because it could it could go it could 2x and then go down 80 i have an answer for that by the way
okay i mean and look my name is volatility but you know right around 70 80 drawdowns i i start I start shaking too. Many people, I think, are underestimating just how much of old capital would be bidding things like Hyperliquid.
If you guys have been tuning into these spaces, we covered when there was that hedge fund guy who went on Bloomberg and basically red-pilled all of
TradFi when he was trading in the teens. I think he was like between 12 to 15.
And what happened happened. And this year and late last year, we saw those flows
year and late last year we saw those flows into hyperliquid from commodities like silver gold
and recently oil that's where price discovery happens and that's the thesis for hyperliquid
the thesis the thesis is now what's happening now um it's just a matter of are you willing to
go through those corrections or not by the way, this whole thing of like price discovery, you know, it kind of irks me.
Every time I hear like Bitcoin's going through price discovery or this is going through price discovery.
I think I've heard you say this before.
Let me just tell you, it's always underpriced.
Everything is always price discovery.
Every day the market's open, it's price discovery.
You have a bid and ask for every asset that's traded.
So when people say, oh, it's under price discovery,
it's always under price discovery, right?
Every single day that the market's open,
it's price discovery.
There's a bid and ask for everything, you know?
So it's not anything special when people say on space,
it's under price discovery.
It's ridiculous.
It's like it's something special.
Now we need to like look over here
because it's under price discovery. It's like it's something special. Now we need to look over here because it's underpriced.
It's always, things are always being priced.
That's right.
And there's this discovery process of a bid and ask, you know?
Yes.
Yes.
But O'Hare, you know that's not how people's market screeners work.
Like, they want to see what's on the 52-week high list.
Oh, cool.
This and that stock.
What's CNBC and Bloomberg talking about?
They're only talking about the stuff that hit 52-week highs.
You know how – like you're right.
You're correct.
And yet you know how the world works.
Well, this is why I don't buy stuff that's 52-week highs.
I look at stuff – by the way, my – I. By the way, people ask me all the time,
like, how do you invest this way?
Like, how does that work?
I always say, I've been saying this for years on Spaces.
I've ran Spaces since day one when they were rolled out.
And I've always said to people, look,
I like to look at things
because a lot of you guys are technicians,
especially in the crypto community
because there's really no fundamentals
to hang your hat on. It's all technicals.
Well, you know I'm an evaluation guy.
Not hyperliquid, man.
You know I am, O'Hare.
I know. But here's the thing. From a technical standpoint, things that interest somebody like
me are not things that are going from lower left to upper right on your chart. There are things
that are going from upper left to lower right on your chart. So when things are hitting 52-week lows, okay, that's, by the way, one of
my screens, okay, I have a lot of different screens I use, okay, you know, so we screen 3,500 stocks
roughly in our universe, 3,500, and you're constantly going through the motions of screen,
every day is a process. Now, not every day do I pick a stock,
not every week do I buy, or not even every month or every quarter, okay? We have a very low turnover, but my point is that you're constantly going through the motions every single day,
and when things are hitting 52-week highs, that's one of my strengths. Why is it? So when I get an
alert and it says 52-week low for this, okay, I said high, I meant low. When something's hitting
a 52-week low, that piques my interest, okay?, I meant low. When something's hitting a 52-week low,
that piques my interest, okay?
Now, let me do a little bit more work.
Then there's another screen that goes through.
So the process of the screening process takes time
and ultimately boils down to just a handful of,
you know, several dozen stocks.
So, but they're all, you're constantly on a hamster wheel,
right?
You're constantly looking at different things.
Every day is a new day.
Things are hitting 52-week highs and things are hitting 52-week lows, and things are just kind of in the middle. So that runs the whole gamut. So I'm more interested in the things that
are not working than the things that are working. Because remember, you buy low and you sell high,
okay, that's how you make money. You can also make money buying high and selling higher. That's true,
but that's momentum investing. That's not my specialty. That's not my forte how you make money you can also make money buying high and selling higher that's true but that's momentum investing that's not my specialty that's not my forte people make money
i think i think both are i think both are valid i think both are valid and actually i find myself
doing both so i love i love to buy better than the next it just you know i'm not saying one's
better than the other but i can tell you from experience that over time, over time,
over long periods of time, buying really cheap things, whether it's stocks or houses or real
estate or art, whatever, buying cheap is better than buying expensive. So value investing has
always outperformed growth investing over the long run. That's a fact. When done properly, that's a fact. Now, there are periods
where growth outperforms value handedly. And there are periods where value outperforms growth
handedly. So we have been in a period of time where growth has outperformed value for a very
long time because precisely of what I said earlier, which is we had 16 years of super low interest rates,
QE one, two, and three,
all kinds of changes to the system.
Okay. And that's kind of buoyed risk assets
and largely the ones that are the riskiest,
which is growth and that's outperformed.
And so we're going from a regime of growth to a regime
of value. And that process, it's not an event, that's a process. So it takes time for that to
happen. I think one thing that, so especially when I started taking more active management
of my portfolio, I think one thing that really helps me was, yes, we'd all prefer to buy the bottom
or most of the bottom. But I mean, sometimes you just weren't paying attention. And sometimes
you might have missed the window. But that doesn't mean that, you know, XYZ stock is now
too late.
Let me ask you, Matt. Is it easier to buy the bottom or buy a top? What's easier? you know, X, Y, Z stock is now, it's too late.
So one thing I,
or buy a top, what's easier?
If you miss the window, you shouldn't buy at all.
No, no, no, no. Let me get to my, let me get to my point.
Let me get to my point.
Okay.
I think, I think it's, I think it's also okay to either,
look, if you miss the bottom, fine, it happens. But it's also perfectly fine to
buy the breakout. That is perfectly fine too. And I find myself like, I catch myself doing this too.
Like, ah, I can't own that name. I loved, I don't know, Robin Hood at $22 or $25, but I missed it.
I don't know, Robinhood at $22 or $25, but I missed it.
Can't buy it.
But then I checked myself and I asked like, yeah, but okay,
if you had bought it at $20 or $22, right here, right now,
when it's on the verge of a breakout, would you still hold it or would you sell?
And that's a great, and that's helpful too.
So like, yeah, you're right.
If the answer is like, no, no, no, no. At this point, the valuation, it doesn't make any, doesn't make
any sense. And that's fair. But on the flip side, if you would add here a buy, that's fair too.
Yeah. Let me make an important observation. What you just said, you're, you're, you're,
the idea of buying a top or buying a bottom, right? Like, I don't want to buy the bottom
and I don't want, you know, I want to sell the top.
Breakout.
No, no, buy bottom or buy breakout.
The difference between, I never said top.
Let me give you, yeah, let me, let me give you an observation here.
So from my perspective, I don't buy bottoms and I don't sell tops.
I buy valuation.
I buy cheap and sell expensive.
Okay.
Now, could I buy something cheap
and have it go get cheaper?
Absolutely, happens all the time.
Could I sell something expensive
and only have it go up more and get more expensive?
Happens all the time.
So my perspective is different.
I don't buy, I don't look at a chart and say,
this is the bottom and I'm gonna buy the bottom
or I'm gonna avoid it because I think it's going lower.
And just similarly on a chart going up,
I'm not gonna, I don't wanna sell here because I think it's going higher. And just similarly on a chart going up, I'm not gonna, I don't wanna sell here
because I think it's going higher.
So then it turns around and goes lower
and I missed the top.
So my perspective is always from evaluation.
I'm buying a business.
So when you're buying,
and again, your crypto also,
so crypto is totally different,
but it's all technicals.
But with stocks, right?
You're buying companies.
These stocks are not just like pieces of paper,
certificates or little tickers on a screen.
These are companies with employees, with IP,
with earnings, with debt, with plant and equipment
and all kinds of things with IP.
So these are literally, these are ownership.
You have an ownership stake in a business.
The question is, at what point are you getting in?
Is the business expensive or is the business cheap?
And if I'm going to buy this business, I want to buy the business as cheap as possible.
This is a great place to circle the conversation back around to NVIDIA that we were talking about and then talking about again.
Yeah, like I said, like an hour ago, during the tariff, Liberation Day crash, whatever you want to call it, I bought NVIDIA at $95.92.
And then last year, I think it was over the winter, I sold it post earnings at $190.
So like, hey, great, cash in that 2x.
And I fully planned and I tweeted it out.
I fully planned like, you know know if i wake up and it's
back to 160 or 150 i'm back in nvidia because i love that valuation but now several quarters
several months and now several quarters later they kept they kept uh uh beating and improving
their valuation and knocking it out of the park on their EPS, they have come into their valuation.
And where I sold it at a PE of, at the time,
I think it was above 40.
It might've been about 50.
Now the PE has come all the way down to 22.
The company, you're right.
The share price is literally the same as it was
over half a year ago,
but the valuation is better than ever. And so I'm looking at it
and I'm like, Matt, let me ask you this. Is it possible that Nvidia is going, because again,
to your point here, and this is something I alluded to earlier, which you just brought up,
which is the fact that Nvidia hasn't, the stock price hasn't moved in basically seven months,
eight months since last August. Nice long consolidation. Yes. And yet, and yet, to your point, Jensen and the management team
over the last, over that timeframe have been on television, have been at conferences
elaborating on the growth aspects, the environment, you know, how great the environment is
and everything. So, you know, the fact that the stock hasn't moved at the same time
that everything fundamentally from the management's team, their perspective has been good and getting
better. What does that signal to you? Could it signal that it's going from a growth company to
more of like, you know what, it's not a growth stock anymore. It's more of like a, you know,
GARP stock, growth at a reasonable price. Yeah, steady, steady, Eddie. Yeah. Yeah,
it's not a value. It's more of a GARP, right? I agree there. Four and a half trillion. I agree
with you. So this is what I said earlier. So companies go through phases, right? So they go
through like growth phases, you know, kind of stagnant phases, and then like declining phases,
and hopefully back
to growth uh some that never come back out of that some it's a death spiral they become value traps
and they die others and cisco by the way cisco systems has been through that process for the
over the last 25 years yeah amd certainly has right amd was dead money for a long time look at the
stock and micron dead money meanwhile hold on cisco cisco the stock. Micron, dead money for a long time. Meanwhile, hold on. Cisco, by the way, Cisco,
so we said, you know,
NVIDIA has not missed an earnings
except once in the last decade.
Cisco has not missed a single earnings
in the last decade,
even including 2020 and 2022.
So yeah, I agree with you.
Like at a certain point,
proven track record,
you know, you can't,
I wouldn't trust any old ceo as far as i could
throw them but when you have earnings and uh uh when you have double beats after double beats
after double beats quarter after quarter year after year at a certain point like hey i can give
the benefit of doubt to this company if they're telling me jensen is telling you, we see our demand as strong as ever, well into 2027, no slacking on our previous products, and we're excited about our future offerings.
Like, I'm not going to bet against it, that's for sure.
No, of course.
I mean, again, there's two things, right? There's looking out of the windshield
and making assumptions. What is the future going to look like? And then there's looking in the
rear view, what has already happened and how is it priced into the company's stock price?
And so the stock price today, any stock price today, supposedly, right, supposedly represents the value of that company.
So now there's multiples being placed on stocks, right? So some multiples are high, some multiples are low, multiples of earnings, I should say. So, you know, when a company's,
you know, typically when a company has a high multiple, right, investors are willing to pay
more for those earnings because the earnings
presumably and the revenues are growing and the business is really solid and fantastic and operating
on you know uh at at peak capacity uh and companies that have a low multiple generally uh earnings
and revenues are are not as are not growing yep uh it's very fair. And so my point is that there's this gray area
where you have cyclical companies
where you have high earnings, right?
And low PE, right?
At exactly the time that you have peak in earnings, right?
I mean, it's like the reciprocal.
It's like flip it upside down.
So at some point, NVIDIA,
that cycle will play out. It's anybody's guess when that's like the reciprocal. It's like flip it upside down. So at some point, NVIDIA, you know, that cycle will play out.
It's anybody's guess when that's going to happen.
It's been three years now, two and a half years,
and it's just been gangbusters.
It's been like a rocket ship.
At some point, that's going to end, and it'll be the reverse.
Multiple will start to go up.
And now we're getting into the selling too early and maybe just let your winners ride. But see, that's the point. The stock hasn't gone anywhere since August. The volatility.
Yes, but the valuation. Yes, but you said yourself, you're a fundamentals guy. You respect
the valuations. And OK, it's fair to say that investors can get a story wrong in six months and eight months.
But if the valuation keeps getting better for you, are you going to follow the herd and lemmings over the cliff?
Well, the point, I guess, here is that we're running in circles here, you and I.
we're running in circles here, you and I,
but I think the point is that maybe the price is signaling
that investors are not really convinced
that the margins, for instance,
which have been phenomenal,
are going to continue to stay high,
that those revenues,
which have been record revenues
for quarter after quarter after quarter,
are slowing down.
They're not accelerating.
It's slowing down.
So the stock price is reflecting
that investors are not willing to pay up
because the company isn't really growing
as fast as it did when the cycle started.
You follow me?
So by the time you realize what's going on,
the stock price will be 130 or 140.
And then people are like, wait a minute.
You know, why is it lower?
The company's, you know, it's a great company.
But that's why I like, but that's why i like but that's why i like again uh i'm with you that's why i like to check i want
to see when that will happen i grant you that i it's hard to know when that'll happen but we're
getting an indication because the stock price literally you can look at the stock and nothing's
happened in all that time and so what is is that signaling? This is a really important signal.
The price can so easily mess someone up.
If you're only staring at price and you're not looking at, hey, come on, what's the last four quarters of earnings?
Did they beat expectations?
What's the CEO saying about next year's demand?
Is he still bullish? it's priced to perfection.
Don't you get it?
That's not, no, no, no.
Come on.
A 22 PE is not priced to perfection.
It is. Hold on, hold on, hold on.
Not when you have companies right next to it, like Tesla, at a 250 PE, Palantir triple
digits.
You have so many other companies
that have crazy PEs,
but NVIDIA at 22 is price of perfection.
My gardener knows about NVIDIA.
Do you understand this stock
has gone up 600 some percent
over the last 25 years?
Do you remember how many times
people said in the teens that, okay, that was Apple's peak iPhone.
Like it's just not going to work again next year or the year after that.
It's just, they're just not going to keep paying for a slightly better, slightly more expensive iPhone and the services and the yada yada.
That can go on so much longer than
three measly years. Three measly years? No, no, I'm sorry. And also, here's a good example.
Apple in 2022, that nasty bear market that no one was spared. Apple PE fell all the way down to, get this, 19.
Yeah, Apple got cut more in half.
The stock price got cut more than in half.
All the other Mag 7 were not spared.
Everything took it on the chin.
Even bonds had a terrible year in 2022.
And yet Apple's PE fell to 19.
And you're telling me Nvidia's is 22's is 22 today like god that's very attractive
that is really good valuation i understand you know eon's opening up tariff in a couple days
there's other metrics other than pe there's market share apple was still getting look
you guys know that in 2004 or 2005 that BlackBerry and Nokia had 80% of the market?
Apple only had like 8% or 9%, okay?
There's other factors in play.
And when you're talking about like 7%—
Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.
Apple didn't even invent the iPhone in that year.
I understand.
The iPhone didn't exist yet.
I understand that. I understand that.
You can't have 5% market share
if you don't even have the iPhone yet.
But even in 2008, 2009,
BlackBerry was still very much alive.
Nokia was still very much alive.
So in other words,
if you look at NVIDIA,
they already control the entire market.
Do you guys remember Ronnie Coleman, right?
The bodybuilder?
It's like asking this motherfucker who was 5'11", 296 with 2% body fat to get bigger.
That's what you're doing.
You're asking NVIDIA to just be more perfect.
It's all built in already.
No, it's really.
Elon is opening up.
You're basically. No, no, no. It's all built in already. No, you're really already asking,
is AI, does this have more global growth?
Again, you're all coming back to the same fundamental question.
Is AI just a bubble or not?
That's really all it is.
That's really it.
Is AI a bubble or not? I's really all it is. That's really it. Is AI a bubble or not?
I disagree because AMD,
I think AMD could go to 1,000.
I think AMD has tremendous growth potential.
Well, hold on.
That's a great question, by the way.
Is AI a bubble or not?
I mean, the same question was being asked,
by the way, in 98, 99,
is the internet a bubble?
Is it a fad?
Is it a bubble?
It was a bubble in 99. It really was. And a bubble? Is it a fad? Is it a bubble?
It was a bubble in 99, it really was.
And guess what?
It was a bubble, but again,
that was probably one of the greatest,
one of the greatest inventions in humanity's history.
I mean, since like the plow,
the combustion engine, the steam engine,
since the Gutenberg press, I mean, it was revolutionary.
Sure, the concept, but not Cisco. I would submit that the internet revolution
had a bigger impact and will have a bigger impact than AI. I actually bought a couple of AI
books recently that I'm in the process of reading
and, you know, artificial intelligence.
And I believe, you know, AI is revolutionary.
There's no question, okay?
There's no question.
But AI is built on the internet.
Without internet, you wouldn't have AI.
And so my belief is that the internet
is vastly more important to society than AI is.
At least right now.
Yeah, but we could do that.
And energy is more...
Let me just finish this thought.
Let me just finish this thought.
Sure, but energy is more important than the internet.
Like, you could do that with every technology.
Every technology is just standing on the shoulders of the ones before it.
Right.
I mean, you could say that...
Let me just finish the thought.
Okay, sorry.
So, Matt, where I was getting with this was during 98 and 99,
there was a blow-off top going up into the first quarter of 2000.
And then many companies that were in that ride-up crashed.
Many went out of business.
Many went down 90-plus percent,
including the largest company in the world at that time,
which was Cisco Systems.
AMD and Micron went down 99%, 98%. the largest company in the world at that time, which was Cisco Systems. Okay.
AMD and Micron went down 99%, 98%.
I mean, these companies got wiped out.
Okay.
And they were dead money for over a decade.
Some of them, like NVIDIA was dead money for like 15, 16 years.
Think about that for a second.
Okay.
So this new revolution of AI, which by the way,
you know, Nvidia has been the biggest benefactor of, has been a huge boon for them. But if you
were an investor in Nvidia in 2000 and held on, it was dead money for a generation. So my point is
these cycles, these cycles happen, they happen, you know, from, you know, and by the way, we don't know how long the cycles will last both up and down.
It's anybody's guess.
But if you're wrong and you're buying the top, like, for instance, right now, I mean, no one knows if it's the top, right?
All you can speculate is by looking at the stock prices of these companies and ask yourself a simple question.
Is this a value here?
How much more upside is there?
Can I double my money in NVIDIA over the next reasonable timeframe? Let's say-
No, no, you just missed it again. Let me give you-
No, you just missed it again. It is not the stock price. You were buying the valuation.
Let me just give you a thought here. As an investor, okay, when I place money,
when I buy something, I'm looking for one of two things.
Basics.
This is basics.
Write this down, Matt.
This will help you.
Okay.
As an investor, when I place money into a new investment, I want a 100% return on my money over three years.
I'd like it over three years or five years max.
So when I ask this question about,
we ask ourselves this question all the time,
like, can I double my money?
Forget about 1,000% returns and new revolutionary new things,
cancer drugs that go 1,000x in three months
because they get FDA approval.
That stuff does happen.
That's not something I'm interested in.
Have we had things like that in our portfolio
in M&A? Absolutely. We have pretty big returns. My point is that what we do is we try to get,
this is our baseline. Our baseline is, can we double our money as an investor over the next
three to five years in a three-year timeframe or a five-year timeframe? Over five years,
if I could double my money, I'm looking at about 15 a year okay so
that's reasonable so again when you look at something like nvidia could i double my money
in the stock over the next three or maybe five years easily in order for me to double my money
well i'm not sure about easy right there's a lot of large numbers here okay and 15 a year
hold on nvidia would have to go to, well,
compounded, right. Compounded 15% a year. So it would have to go to, in video would have to go
to a $9 trillion valuation. So here's where the fundamentals come in. Then you got to take that
$9 trillion market cap. Okay. And work backwards. Okay. And figure out what needs to happen for
that to happen. right? This is where
this fundamental stuff comes in. So you can't just look at a chart and go, okay, here's what's
going to, here's what's happened. Here's where I think it's going and what's going to happen.
I can wish all I want that a stock doubles over the course of the next three to five years. It
may not happen, right? It may not happen. I have to really roll my sleeves up, sharpen the pencils
and go, okay, how is it going to happen? How is that going to happen happen. I have to really roll my sleeves up, sharpen the pencils and go, okay,
how is it going to happen? How is that going to happen? And I have to really do some due diligence,
okay? And really construct the path, okay? And if we're talking NVIDIA and you think you can get a
double, forget about 6X, 10X, okay? Forget about that. That's water under the bridge. Everybody's
looking in the rear view with NVIDIA. Everybody's looking in the rear view with NVIDIA.
Everybody's looking in the rear view with Bitcoin.
Everybody's looking in the rear view
with all these things that have happened
and saying those things are gonna happen going forward.
I submit to you, they may not and probably won't.
Okay, so what could happen?
Well, let's pencil it out.
Again, go back to the basics and go,
could I get a 15% compounded annual return
over five years with NVIDIA?
This is kind of our metric.
You may have a different metric.
You may need 20%.
Michael Saylor says he needs 40% CAGR.
Fred, who I joined his space,
he's talked about this CAGR for Bitcoin,
40% CAGR.
Is that sustainable over the long run?
Now, some people believe that's sustainable, others don't. And so again, you have to sharpen the
pencil, roll up your sleeves and go, how do we get from here to there? And with NVIDIA,
okay, it's a little bit easier than with crypto because NVIDIA's got earnings. It's a business,
right? We know what business they're in. Now, here's the caveat here. The caveat with like
something like a tech company like NVIDIA is, the caveat is the business may not be the business today
in three years or five years from now.
Five years before the AI revolution, NVIDIA was dead money.
No one knew the AI was going to like,
this was going to happen, right?
No one, right?
There were people that were in the AI community
that had an idea of what it might look like,
but certainly no one was betting the ranch on NVIDIA as the horse. There were a lot of horses. And so that's kind of how
you have to look at it. Again, that's how I look at it. Sure. And I respect your process. And as
long as you've got something that makes sense that you can repeat and apply to different equities, large, small, and mega cap,
hey, if it works, it works.
And it's okay that we might disagree on one company.
That's fine.
That's what makes a market, right?
But for me, for NVIDIA...
The disagreement with one company,
but it's funny that you say it that way
because it's okay that we disagree on one company.
The only problem is we disagree on the company
that actually is the, like I said,
I'm kind of an astronomy buff.
So I gave the analogy of like Sagittarius A,
which is the black hole,
the center of our galaxy, the Milky Way.
And so NVIDIA is that, that's the black hole.
So when we disagree on a company,
it's not just any company, right? We could hole. So when we disagree on a company, it's not just
any company, right? We could agree that we're disagreeing on the company, right? The company
that really is the most important in this AI ecosystem. No, no, no. So the one thing that I
make myself do as well is where can I be wrong? Where could NVIDIA get tripped up?
And I should be able to present them. Where is that, do you think?
Even though I'm bullish.
Where is that, do you think?
Yeah, even though I'm bullish NVIDIA,
believe me, I can paint the bear case.
And the bear case for me would be
what if Google catches up
with their own proprietary chips?
You know, Google makes their own AI chips in-house.
And then they also, like, they are an absolute monopoly silo.
Apple, Meta, Microsoft.
Well, Apple doesn't, Apple hasn't made their own AI chips,
but you're right, they could.
But Google, I think, is the most potential risk factor to NVIDIA
because not only do they make their own chips
so they don't have to buy anything from NVIDIA,
but they also own the entire software stack and suite of tools.
So you're paying for Google's storage,
running their chips, using their software suite
because you're still going to be using their Gmail and their drive.
You're using Google's Gemini. I could go on and on. Yeah, I can absolutely paint the five-year
picture where NVIDIA doesn't get it. Absolutely. But I'm just saying, probability-wise, I think
three years in the grand scheme of this AI future and build-out I think it's kind of, I think it's a blip.
I think it's still way too soon to be calling for bubbles.
And now if we woke up and NVIDIA had gone from a 22 PE
to a 52 PE to an 82 PE to 122 PE,
I'll be right there next to you banging the drum saying,
I'm selling and this'm selling and they're not
justifying their valuation.
So stop right there for a second.
Yes.
So there are two ways that that could happen.
You said, let's just take the first number.
You said 40 PE or something, right?
22 to 42.
Yeah, basically a double of the PE without a single extra sale.
So it could go to 44 PE.
Let's say it goes to 44 PE.
So let's say you're sitting there
and all of a sudden you look at your screen
and it's 44 times and you're like,
holy cow, what happened?
And the stock price is lower, not higher.
So the stock price,
so there's two ways to get to that PE, correct?
Yeah, yeah.
The stock, yes.
Their sales can fall off a cliff.
The stock price could go up.
Or people bid it for no, yeah, yeah.
People could just bid it to bid it.
Or the sales could fall off a cliff.
The stock price, yes.
That's correct.
Earnings, right?
Earnings, not sales.
Yeah, sales, earnings, yes.
Earnings.
Yeah, earnings could fall off a cliff.
But so the price goes up a lot.
Then you get to that 44 multiple.
Or earnings drop a lot, not a lot, but some,
and you get that multiple expansion.
Almost in half, but yes.
So what happens?
So again, this is really the key.
Which one of those do you think might happen first?
Or which one might happen, you know, not first, but at all, right?
Well, and now, but at all, right?
Well, now we're getting into, this is exactly why I sold NVIDIA at $190 almost over the winter,
three or four months ago,
because the share price was running faster than the valuation.
And I got more than a...
I got to close the space down, man.
Very well.
Go for it.
It was more than a... I'm to close the space down, man. Very well. Go for it. It was more than a double.
I'm headed to the gym anyway.
O'Hare, you want to double in three to five years.
Well, NVIDIA had doubled in less than one year.
In my personal opinion, the valuation was getting way ahead of the earnings.
And so like, yeah, okay, great.
This was an amazing, wow, timed that well.
I'm going to cash it out better than a 2x in less than a year.
Yay, I'm so smart.
But now, fast forward to today, and this is the final point.
They've grown.
They kept rocking their earnings.
They kept knocking it out of the park with their quarterly reports,
and they've grown into their valuation.
And now the valuation has come all the way back down to 22 PE.
I think it's time to re-up.
Okay, and I'll leave it there.
That being said,
I want to thank all the speakers. Matt O'Hare,
I want to thank
man, we had a lot
of people today. I want to thank
Uncle Joe, Bitcoin
AI guy,
and everyone else up here thank you thank you thank you
it's been uh fantastic i'm gonna go live again tomorrow same time 3 45 p.m esc we talk all
things markets guys if this is your first time tuning in you want to keep up with what we do
my name's wabi i go live here on the Because Bitcoin account.
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