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Market Talk: BTC hits 83k! Is it over!? New lows soon!? 75k!?
Recorded: Jan. 29, 2026 Duration: 2:43:22Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the current volatility in the market post-FOMC meeting, highlighting trends of declining interest in crypto assets as many pivot to commodities. Despite the challenges, there are indications of potential growth opportunities, particularly for altcoins like Solana, as the market seeks stability and recovery.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Oh, my God. Here's the sorrow, maternity In the upset, clean perfection
Deep in my sin, blame me
Just hold the mold, fingers such a
Grudges break your back
All you've been
All you carry
All you carry
Waste to your right
All you carry Guys Oh Oh my god. I So you carry on
You can't
I I Oh Welcome. I'm going to go to the next one. Music Thank you. I don't know. Beating down and from the stairs, double wits you down.
Overload of bars, the most people across this head.
Oh, oh, hallelujah.
Follow all your pride. All you've been now, all you can't bear.
All you've been now, all you've been here.
Right on, right on, right on, right on. Oh I'm going to run over the world. I'm going to be sky. I'm going to be sky.
I'm Yo, what's up, Evan?
Prometheus, I sent you an invite to speak.
Good afternoon, everyone.
What is up?
Man, incredible volatility today, the day after FOMC, man.
It's quite epic.
Prometheus went on an epic rant yesterday,, here we are seeing this price action, man. Um, very few things on chain are holding up. It's, uh, it's a blood fest out there, honestly. And that's only with, um, the S and P and, uh, the other indices pulling back just the slightest bit.
and this is pulling back just the slightest bit and man everyone is now just using hyperliquid
to um trade commodities people are now just trading commodities on leverage because
nothing's really sustainable on chain right now and all coins are kind of in this wonky range but
solana did break down today and perhaps that is signal Solana
has led the market over the last three plus years and maybe history repeats
itself we saw that happen in Q1 of last year when Solana was showing weakness
eventually the broader market caught up except this time um ethereum isn't showing much weakness against solana
and uh last year if solana was trading at these levels ethereum would easily be trading at 23 2400
and it's just not right now so i think that's one of the things that that is different about uh
this small drought on the market is experiencing right now.
Same thing with Hyperliquid. I'm not even sure if people get the chance to bid single digits again.
But the teams, perhaps, if we're lucky to see prices below that 10-10 wick.
But I think Hyperliquid and Pump still remain in my eyes things that are probably still going to be trending once the broader market recovers.
But I can't really say that for most of the broader all coin market, to be honest.
And we've all seen the insane rallies at whether it was crypto has just kind of been
doing nothing since btc rejected um off of uh that deviation that we hit right above 94. i think we
hit 97k a few weeks back and that rejection just seemed to really crush the market i see cool in
the audience when i haven't talked to him in a minute. I'll send him an invite to speak.
You guys can come ahead and request, by the way.
If anyone, if you guys are listening, I know I usually do this on Fridays, but, you know,
because of the volatility and all that stuff, I'd love to see what you guys are seeing in
the markets.
We're going to have some of our other speakers, as usual, probably during the second half
of the show, as I always do.
Small Cap is going to show up.. Small Cap is going to show up.
Big Cheds is going to show up.
Same with our other speakers that you guys have been tuning into the last couple of months and even years.
So it's going to be a great show.
I'm really excited.
And spaces are recorded, as always.
But as far as my intro, I think I'm going to cut it here.
I'm just going to finish off with saying that we've been seeing this huge bull market with uh precious metals whether as crypto it's kind of doing a
nothing burger and uh i would agree with most of the sentiment on here it is going to take at least
at least a little bit longer for the market to truly recover from what happened in october but
from what happened in October. But if we do end up having at least two weekly closes above
100K, then I think the market is fully risked on again in crypto. But if you guys have been
tuning in over the last few weeks, you'll know that both Evan and Prometheus have not
strayed away from their views on the crypto market. And that takes a lot of resilience, man.
It really does.
And should BTC break $80,000,
then Solana's probably going to have a screaming buy opportunity.
Again, that's sub $100,000.
But honestly, it's kind of a no-man's land when it comes to Sol specifically.
It's so odd, man. Solana can just have the worst price action but you'll still have some things to do on chain on solana which is
the strangest thing whether as ethereum if ethereum price action is doing bad then everything
on chain on eth whether it's mainnet whether it's base whether it's arbitrum
they just do absolutely piss poor and hyperliquid on chain it's kind of the same thing hyperliquid
can do well but not much can happen on chain um and when hyperliquid is bad everything on chain
just dies off but i do believe there's like one ticker that's been doing well on on hype
outside of per, which is kind of like the consensus play for Hyperliquid on chain.
I think it's called kinetic or something like that. And they help out with trading commodities
and stock on chain. It's something to do with it, their uh with their hip 3 upgrade i know i know
that much and it's one of those uh vc projects low float high ftp that kind of stuff i personally
haven't touched it um really haven't touched anything on chain on hyperliquid specifically
probably since like early last year late 2024 during that first uh initial run but um those are kind of my opening
thoughts guys day after fomc market takes market takes a beating in crypto with the slightest
pullback in the equity markets right now no one wants anything to do with crypto everyone has uh
not everyone but a lot of um the noise that people make here on this app with crypto, they've all pivoted to commodities.
I don't blame them. They're following where liquidity is going right now.
And as long as precious metals continue to have the spotlight, then people are just going to go towards that market.
And perhaps if there's a greater correction, I'm going to bring up Manasseh as a speaker. Perhaps when commodities have a bigger correction or just consolidate for a bit, people start moving their money towards markets that haven't moved.
You have emerging markets move.
You have low caps moving, high caps moving, really everything except crypto.
So typically during this time, you want to at least wait for some consolidation
before even expecting people to come into crypto we saw it in 2024 from march all the way to august
other markets were trending while our market essentially did nothing but range with um very
very few opportunities um i know some things on mainnet and base were trending during that time.
Some things on Solana.
And very few things have actually trended since 10.10.
And it's almost kind of the same thing, really.
In this long range from 80K, call it 80K, it's a 97.
And very few things have happened on chain um but uh
i'm gonna go ahead and stop yapping man i feel like i'm just gonna go on and on and on guys
show some love to the space we're gonna go ahead and cook for you guys space is our record as always
um thank you to all of you that are tuning in right now or listening to the recording and all
that stuff show some love to space guys best way to do that is by clicking the spaces tab
once you guys do that you'll see that link above that says x.com slash i slash spaces
hit the like button hit the retweet button and um if you guys missed yesterday's show man
what if i what it what a cook session man we talked about so many things we streamed for i think just over three hours and then x just completely nuked on us man
x just rugged so apologies for you guys that were tuning in and for those of you that didn't do
yourselves a favor and when you can after the space go ahead and listen to yesterday's reporting
uh we had some incredible incredible moments that that honestly should be clipped. And man, honestly,
these spaces, whenever the market gets uncertain, whenever it's just in a range mostly, and
it's like some bearish chop on majors, these shows become incredibly entertaining, man. And you have people that come on and they show such passion when they speak that the mic cannot handle it.
The mic fizzles out.
So maybe we have a few of those moments today.
That's what makes these shows entertaining.
And frankly, if we just talked about price action, like, ah, price is doing this, this, and that, blah, blah, blah.
It'd be pretty boring.
And I don't really think anyone would be tuning in, quite frankly.
But anyways, guys, we're going to go ahead and start cooking.
I'm going to pass it on over to Evan first.
Evan, what's up, brother?
Did you receive my text, by the way?
Is that the right, like, phone number?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Okay, okay.
I responded to it.
I don't know if you got it.
Let me see.
I'm out of the...
I think...
No, I didn't get it, man.
Oh, shoot.
I'm out of the U.S.
That's probably why.
We could do WhatsApp or something.
I'll try the same number at WhatsApp maybe,
or I'll shoot you a message through WhatsApp.
Okay, okay.
And was there an internet outage, like, earlier this morning by any chance?
Did anyone else experience that?
Or is it just me?
Because it was pretty big.
Matt, I know you were.
We had a Comcast outage up on the East Coast.
Okay, okay.
But that was probably ice related. You're in Miami, so.
No, no. My phone wasn't working for like 10 minutes, man.
It was really weird. Internet wasn't working or anything like that either.
Wow.
But, Evan, man man what's going on is this a higher low or are
we about to visit sub 80k um if the s p pulls back if all the s p does is pull back like four percent
five percent that's a that's a possibility man this this honestly shocked me i did not think
that like the market would pull back like this the day after fomc but i know you've been pressing
hard on that right like powell doesn't do anything it's effectively a cutting pause and
it's probably gonna happen same as last time right you were saying yeah that's exactly yeah i mean i it's so far it's
kind of and i mean i'm not going to be i don't have no credit i'm not a billionaire i'm not
going to be right 100 of the time i don't have inside information like all your politicians and
all that but i mean i i was just comparing it to what happened last time you know i was
combined with the ta i mean i was saying look gold, look, gold's going nuts. This is going nuts. If I'm Powell, I'm, you know, I'm probably gonna,
I'm trying to get through my term. I'm old. I just want to be done with this crap. I don't
want Trump up my, you know, Trump trying to sue me and ruin my life, you know, all this. But
at the same time, I want to say a little like F you here and there and, you know, not have my legacy be kind of
with everything going parabolic like that. So, you know, and you look at the other thing I like
to look at, you know, what happened last January when everything was ripping. I mean, they come in,
they pause, you know, and it comes down in that when combined with, you know, the, well, let's
talk about the NASDAQ quickly. I mean, that combined with the NASDAQ we made, you know, it's kind of a double top that we saw yesterday.
Worked like clockwork with the FOMC meeting.
I know I originally said it that I thought NASDAQ would not make a new all-time high until at least quarter four this year.
So far, I've been right.
I think given how quickly we rejected from that major
area, right around 636 on the triple Qs, the odds are high that I will continue to be right and that
we will, you know, kind of drop down. I think that, you know, you easily could see a 15 to 20%
NASDAQ correction this year. I mean, maybe it's milder uh maybe it's not that bad but that's what i would that's what i would assume we will see um you know from that point that original
high we saw in october of 2025 so you know i'm just not seeing um i'm not seeing anything that's
going to magically just you know take us up to new all-time highs with the NASDAQ, with Bitcoin, with crypto in general, S&P 500 anytime
soon. Major sell the news type stuff. I think we're going to see not this weekend, next weekend,
it's going to be the AI Super Bowl. Usually that's major kind of sell the news situation.
I do think this year rhymes a bit with 2022 AI being instead of kind of crypto, the sell off crypto, obviously,
probably will get sold off, you know, as well. But I think the biggest things to, I don't know,
mess around with put options, if you're brave, you know, not financial advice, but things like
Palantir, I mean, I probably, you know, going long on energy, things like XLE, that looks the most
attractive thing to me for me to long right now.
Probably number two, slightly higher risk, but higher reward would be uranium.
Lithium, even more high risk, high reward, things of that nature.
That's on a different kind of market than gold and silver.
I think you were mentioning all the exchanges now are listing.
You could leverage trade gold and silver and all that.
I think that marks probably a local top for, for gold and silver likely.
And I do think that'll come down with the S and P 500 with the NASDAQ.
And I think the volatility that we were seeing with gold and silver today is like, people
are going to take profits, especially if you're, you're way ahead on that.
I think the main question is, does gold and silver stop perform the s&p 500 my guess
is it starts to go kind of sideways s&p 500 has some jumps up against it potentially um i mentioned
palantir i mean i think a lot of stuff with the anything like any ai thing with a crazy you know
bad p p and e ratio i think will dump pretty hard over the next four to six months you know i think
that's pretty obvious at this point
obviously likely at this point if we get into crypto a little bit um i think others you know
on the bright side of like crypto i think you know if you have the right all coins they probably will
perform bitcoin but i still think they're going to dump a lot most of them um solana has been
mentioned you know i think most all coins from their high we saw you know this
month probably will dump 40 to 50 percent solana 80 bucks is like huge on solana like i think
that's what i would guess if we have had to get to bottom on solana right around 80 dollars
like that's the lows of like february 22 and i think that that would be a huge place for solana
you know assuming it you know survives that would be a huge place for Solana, you know, assuming it, you know, survives.
That would be a huge long-term buy for that, you know, assuming it's still relevant in five or ten years, which I think it probably, in all likelihood, will be.
You know, moving on to Ethereum, Bitcoin.
I mean, I've been bearish, you know, since basically, I would say, yeah, I mean, since basically the end of October, I was waiting for signs, you know, indications basically I would say, yeah, I mean, since basically end of October, that was,
I was waiting for signs, you know, indications for literally years, um, that hadn't flashed for
years. And they started to flash at the end of, you know, October. And it's not even complicated
TA. It was mainly just EMAs, you know, momentum waves on higher timeframes, things of that nature.
Um, and those started to flash. So, you know, I got out
immensely, took major profits. And I, you know, I'm, was I happy to, you know, take some losses
on all coins? No, absolutely not. But am I happy that I sold them? Yes, because most of them are
down, you know, over 50% since I sold, especially things like Polygon, you know, freaking, I even
had ApeCoin. I mean, you know, I knew that was risky, but, you know, you look at some of these and you're just like, wow, yeah, you're kind of glad you're
sold because some of them, a lot of them are kind of going to zero. I think we're in a kind of a
cleansing of the market, you know, much milder version or a milder version of 2022 to a certain
extent. Last thing I'll say here, I mean, Bitcoin still looks pretty bad in your daily through,
you know, most timeframes, I would say overall bearish, I would say six day, I mean, Bitcoin still looks pretty bad in your daily through most timeframes, I would
say, overall. Bearish, I would say six-day, rare bearish signs that we haven't seen really since
2022, I would argue. But I mean, if you want to make life-changing money with Bitcoin, I say this
seriously, not actually to be funny, but I think six to seven Bitcoin is actually a good goal.
I'm being 100% serious, you know, in terms of, you know, assuming it goes up to like, you know, 200K at least by the end of this decade.
I mean, if you got six or seven over a million dollars after your long term capital gains taxes, you know, you'd sell a million, 20% or whatever.
You got to pay for that. So, I mean, last thing I'll say, technical target,
the breakdown, I mean, somewhere between fricking 60 to 48, 48 K is my, you know, big area. I would
be really looking at here. Um, if you guys are into SMAs two week, 200 SMA, I would guess if
you hit that, that's a major, major, you know, kind of buying opportunity.
So, you know, that's what I'm looking at right there.
And I think, you know, if you got down to 50K, you easily could get at least a 3 to 4X, you know, up to 150, 200K by the end of this decade.
I mean, hopefully 300K, 400K.
But, you know, I'm being conservative with it.
And then Ethereum, you know, 1800 to 2K.
That's the thing to keep in mind. I know it's the last thing1,800 to $2K. That's the thing to keep in mind.
I know it's the last thing I'll actually say this time.
That's the last thing to keep in mind.
Ethereum, Solana, they probably actually won't go crash as much as Bitcoin.
And anything that does not crash as much as Bitcoin over the next four to six months, that's a damn good buy.
That shows major strength.
So, yeah.
Matt, what are you saying, brother?
How are you, man? Hey, guys. Hey, W strengths. So, yeah. Matt, what are you saying, brother? How are you, man?
Hey guys. Hey Wabi. I'm bullish.
I think this,
I think this is a major market overreaction where, you know,
you had the combination of a steep sell-off in Microsoft earnings plus,
oh, we might have a partial government shutdown. And this is just short term, short term, small ball news, and it misses the forest for the trees. You know, tonight we're getting Apple, we're getting more mag seven earnings. And I mean, if you if you actually dig into Microsoft's earnings, they beat on revenue.
They beat on EPS.
They just didn't give as great a cloud and 2026 guidance as the street was hoping for.
And that means a negative 10, negative 12% sell off.
No, that's kind of overdoing it. So, I mean, to me, what happens if we don't get a partial government shutdown?
Or even if we do, they find an agreement by Monday, Tuesday, next week.
This whole sell-off is going to look really silly.
This whole sell-off is going to look really silly.
By the way, I know we hyper-focus on Bitcoin, but bulls stepped in in large size and bought everything throughout the day.
The S&P 500 only finished red 0.13%.
It didn't even finish down a percent.
The NASDAQ only finished down barely 1%, but the S&P 500
finished 0.13%. Nvidia finished green, this was just a, you know, we over attribute meaning when Bitcoin has a steep sell off.
But you got to look at the rest of the market.
And I mean, yes, Bitcoin lives farther out the risk curve.
Yes, yes, Bitcoin lives farther out the risk curve. But if bulls are stepping in and buying the dip on everything else throughout the day, it probably tells you that this is a panic sell. And last but not least, hey, as long as Bitcoin is holding, call it $83, $84K, it's still all the same range. This is still prices that are at and above november 2025 so we're still in the
same range you're just at the bottom of the range honestly i don't think it's time to panic at all
until you see the weekly candle close below call it 80k that's when you really need to like show
me the weekly candle say 79 or 78 but if it wants to wick down to 83 or even 82
and then it closes at 84 again like that's the bottom of the range and the whole point is to buy
low right so i did my part i was buying today i was buying all my favorite things i bought a nice
i increased the size of my Robinhood bag.
I love that stock, medium, long term.
I bought Bitcoin for sure.
Everything else, like my two energy stocks that are helping build out AI data centers, those finished green today.
There wasn't even any dip to buy.
I couldn't even, I couldn't buy Solaris. I couldn't buy Bloom. They finished green. So, yeah, I think this is going to look really silly if there isn't a partial government shutdown. S&P 500 keep reporting for the rest of this week and early next week. And then what happens next week if jobs data comes in decent or even good?
Like Bitcoin teleports back to 90 plus, maybe even six digits.
And again, look, I just have to say, like, look at the S&P 500.
Yes, it had a steep sell off at 10 a.m., but it is so close to punching a hole through 7K.
Like it's still a higher low, this candle.
So there's just way too much strength everywhere else you look.
And yeah, it's really easy to get bearish if only we're looking at Bitcoin.
But to me, it's a panic sell and a buy opportunity.
Prometheus, what are you saying, man?
How are you?
Dude, this is one of the few times I disagree with Matt.
Usually we have a pretty similar take on the market.
Pretty, yeah, pretty similar.
It feels weird when we don't have a similar take on the market pretty uh yeah pretty similar it's it feels weird when we don't have a similar
take on the market um i just see a lot of structural weakness in bitcoin um i outlined
on the space yesterday if you lose 87.5 like we're going to hades your next pit stop's gonna be
74 to 68 like that's the last value range we created i mean the woodshed man the woodshed it's
the wood it's woodshed time brother and it's only just the beginning let me tell you um you know
price is a fantastic representation of emotion and we had you know 12 plus months if not longer
of exuberance um and you and and euphoria there there really was like granted
people that were trading altcoins necessarily didn't feel that but you know bitcoin as a whole
went up what 600 percent um i i could be wrong on that but i mean it's 500 600 600, 600 percent, right? You know, the asset class as a whole did tremendous.
And, you know, if you look at kind of this distribution that has occurred over the past 12 months,
and the reason why I say it's a distribution is because you've now accepted below the previous year value area low.
their value area low, so standard deviation ban on the VWAP of last year.
So standard deviation ban on the VWAP of last year.
And you've also accepted below the last eight week, or it's really more like 10 at this point,
last 10 week value area low that you created within the range.
So you've now rejected from the local value, and you've also rejected from your higher timeframe
value.
This creates, and most importantly from a contextual standpoint, 12 months of
rejection of price. That is all supply now overhead. Your next area of interest, your next
area of value from a price action perspective is your eight-month range that you created in 2024,
right? In the middle of that range is, or I should say the point of control of that range is 68K,
right? That's where you saw
the most amount of transaction occurring. That's where the most amount of value had occurred.
And that's where really we, you know, before we sent off, you know, come November 24, when Trump
got elected, right? And because of that, now that we've rejected off the value that we created,
or I should say now the supply that we've created over, you know, since November of 24,
you now come in back to retest that area. And that's very, very important from a contextual standpoint. I love my oil stocks. I love my copper. I love, you know, a lot of the kind of defensives that I've been positioning in lately.
But do I love crypto here?
And I don't like I just I just don't.
I understand where we're coming, where people are coming from in the standpoint of, you know, it feels extremely exaggerated in the sense standpoint that the sell off seems very exaggerated.
The bearish bias seems very exaggerated. The bearish
bias seems very exaggerated. The thought process is, you know, everybody's talking about lower.
So that means we should, you know, go higher. Well, like I just mentioned, if we just created
or had 12 months of distribution, that then means that we're going to be entering, in my opinion, an equal and accumulation in orders of magnitude that is equal to the distribution that just occurred and relative to emotion, because price is just a reflection of emotion.
Right. And because of that, what does that mean? That means that remember when we were going up and remember when we were at, you know, like 60K Bitcoin coming out of the ETF announcement.
And remember we're at 50K Bitcoin.
Nobody was saying that, you know, oh, everybody's talking bullish.
So we should, you know, we should, you know, start selling and it's over.
No, you looked at it as trend continuation, right?
Bitcoin was now trending higher.
We're seeing expansion and imbalance higher in price.
And now the same can be said to the downside.
It's just a lot harder to accept the downside.
It's a lot harder to accept the trend continuation of the downside versus trend continuation of the upside.
Um, and I'm not saying here that like Bitcoin's going to go to zero and, you know, everything's
all for naught.
I, I, I don't agree with people that have that take whatsoever.
I just look at it more from a market dynamics perspective.
And I look at kind of the rotational effects that are happening.
And when we're at 90K Bitcoin, people were still extremely bullish,
right? And if the chart is a representation of emotion and it's cyclical in nature, and it goes through cycles and waves, then we should now just be entering and people were just
now bullish at 90 or people were bullish at 90K and we just started getting bearish, then we should
have just now entered into the more of the pessimistic phase of the, you know,
price action described by emotion, correct? So I want to be very cautious getting too far ahead of
my skis, like I like to say, and buying the dip. You know, the first opportunity that I would see
in the chart and I would be really looking for is 68K. Now, I have mentioned
on this space before that I have, and I've talked about it for a while, but boomers ground tripping
the ETF, right? And wouldn't it be such an indoctrination?
You said this a year and a half ago, which is so wild, man.
Yeah. I mean, wouldn't it be such an indoctrination? And we've done this to
every single participant for them to round trip their bags, right? Essentially the same thing
happened, um, from the people that bought at the 2017, you know, 2016, 2017 parabola,
they essentially round tripped it all. Uh, you know, people that bought on the way up in 2020 and,
you know, 2021, they round tripped it into the bear market lows of 22. What are we expecting
differently to happen this time? You know, like, are we expecting boomers to just get away with
robbery? Like, are we expecting them to just, you know, be able to walk away in the sunset and,
you know, their entry to never be revisited again? Is that the world we live in?
Oh, they bought so much that we can never go back down there.
And I think that's a really,
I think that's not the proper way to be looking at this.
I think it's more so should just be looked at supply and demand mechanics.
Like that's really all we have to be looking at here.
And this market has been largely driven from an institutional perspective this cycle. Institutions don't want anything to do with
Bitcoin right now. And the reason why I think is because you see these large banks that are,
getting their sticky little grubby fingers in the most recent act that we tried to pass.
And that's because they're behind the curve and they've been behind the curve for years. And so they have a tremendous amount of
catch up to do, you know, it would be horrible for their, you know, to their bottom line.
If they just allow this thing to pass and them not having any infrastructure in place to really
be generating any money from the system. Right? I mean, that's their main goal.
That's the main goal of all these institutional players
is they want to get their fee, right?
They want to get their 25 basis points
and they want to be happy.
But they don't have from an, you know,
past beyond the ETFs, you know,
they don't have any way to generate any money
out of crypto, zero.
And I think that's something to be very mindful of. And maybe that
co-aligns with these more foundational regulatory pieces being passed in, you know, over the next
12 months, slowly, that way that they can integrate, that way that they can really build out,
that way that they can capture what they want to capture and be a part and have their, you know, hand in the pot.
Or I should say their foot in the door.
But with that being said, I look at alts and there's zero breadth in crypto.
Like, there is zero breadth in crypto.
And, you know, if you were to buy anything at all, the only thing I would do.
Was the penguin the top, bro?
Like the combination of the top bro like the combination i mean in a dead nft project yesterday coming out and launching a token is one of the most ridiculous things i've
ever heard like that is the most you know like just i it's like they're just harvesting these
people like it's literally like they're growing fetuses in wombs and they're harvesting for them
for their stem cells and organs brother it's it's a terrible thing it's a really terrible thing that's happened
the fake wounds i think you might i think you might be right beyond burger beyond meat you know
those artificial wombs are trying to do um like plant-based plant-based wombs bro yeah
study jerry i won't get into a study Jerry Seinfeld's dad the
World Fair back in the 1800s his father was one of the take-home babies where
they had these fetuses you could you know these these fetuses in these wombs
that you could just go and buy and grow and dude the the smooth brain that
brings me back to the brain discord Discord channel we used to have, bro. The Smooth Brain.
Study that.
I think I'm just reminded two weeks ago, Prometheus, where so many people were getting too quick to say that Bulls had definitively won.
And we've broken out of the range and price was crossing 95, then 96, then 97K.
But I remember you saying, and I was saying, look, you got to wait till the weekly close.
Yeah. Okay. Price on the daily chart. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. It's good to see 95, 96, 97. But until the weekly closes, we're still in the same range. And sure
enough, we fell back down and never closed above 96, 97K. And we're still in the same sideways
sandbox that we've been in since November. And now we're at the bottom of the range. Now we're
at the bottom. But again, I think you got to wait to the weekly close, which is more than three days from now.
A lot can happen in 72 hours.
Yeah. If you want confirmation, I mean, the weekly close, weekly candles, in my opinion, rule all.
They're, you know, fantastic for confirmation.
They're not, you know, too large a time frame where you're missing out on a lot of context.
Weekly closes are always great.
I mean, even myself up at 96, 97 K, like I said, when we were on these spaces, you broke
out of, you know, the, the value that we created over eight weeks broke out of 92 K, you know,
things looked really good.
You're reclaiming some, you know, your 90 day rolling VWAP, you're back up to like 97. I then shorted at 97 on Thursday morning, um, back
down. And, you know, we had the sell off come Sunday, right? Because the weekly close and you,
you were at the point of origin from the expansionary move up from 92 to 97 and things
were looking okay. But then come Monday morning, most importantly, come Monday
morning, right, we had then encroached and buyers were unable to defend their position
at that origin of the move. And we accepted back fully within the range at that point.
And I like to look at volume profiles. I think it know, I like to look at, uh, you know, volume profiles. I think it's
a fantastic way to, you know, look at like quote unquote true ranges, uh, from it's a little bit,
it's a little bit clear of a picture for me, uh, that way to look, uh, to look at it that way.
You know, if you look at it from more of a discretionary, you know, technical, you know,
from a technical discretionary technical analysis perspective, I mean, are we still above the low that we set at 82? Yes. I mean,
I get that, you know, you took out, there's a tremendous amount of liquidity stacked up at the
BOJ WIC low. Um, sure. But I mean, still, man, like the, the heaviness of price is so hard to ignore, in my opinion.
For sure.
Yeah.
And like I said, if you accept back above $87,500 and you accept back into the value and you are rejecting from a 12 month, uh, 12 months worth of value, then
yeah, I mean, we can, we can, we can talk about it, but as of right now, I have to be
in a bear stance.
Um, you know, and I'm not one who's really going to be, I'm not necessarily somebody
sometimes to my detriment, sometimes not to my detriment.
Uh, I'm not somebody who's going to necessarily be buying the Pico lows or selling the Pico highs, which is kind of how my systems operate or it's how I operate rather.
And, you know, could this be the bottom and could you accept back up in the range and could this be
a lot of noise here locally? Yes. But what contextually I just kind of laid out from what we've done, you know, you deviated
the range highs, you created a tremendous amount of value up at the highs bulls, you
know, 10 times were unable to break it higher.
You deviated the range.
You're now like rejecting off of major key levels.
To me, it just like screams, we're going to be going lower to find new value because we're in an imbalance right now.
The market is just completely teeter-tottered in one way.
It doesn't feel like a bilateral market.
It feels unidirectional.
Like I said, my invalidation is $87.5.
We've set back up there.
I'll tremendously reduce some of my exposure.
But until then, I'm like, dude, dude i'm just gonna freaking hammer short slower yeah i mean if you're
um the the beauty of bitcoin and crypto it like bitcoin can chop sideways and skip along at 84
or 85k but if you're shorting xyz crypto all i expect all of that to bleed absolutely like uh
you look at that total 3s chart it looks like it could go down another 60 percent
easily yeah yeah it's that phenomenon where like if bitcoin until bitcoin finds its bottom all
coins have no bottom and uh it's a it's a winning trade that that in the fall of 2025, I would never short Bitcoin.
I would never sell my Bitcoin.
But I was slamming the puts and the shorts on ETH and BMNR because I just knew, look, if Bitcoin is going to fall into a new range below, well, ETH and other crypto is going to fall even faster and farther.
So I'm with you there.
It's probably a winning trade.
But to me, like, you wait months, you wait all week long,
you wait months long for a second chance to buy the bottom of the range.
And you're absolutely right.
We could be wrong.
Bulls could be wrong.
But it feels like even if you are scared shitless, you could just buy as close as you can to $83, $84K, set a stop loss at negative 3% or $80K, just an even round number.
Hey, if price plunges below $80K, clearly I was wrong.
But that seems like a really fair trade to me.
20%, 30% upside and more, and you're only risking 3% downside.
I'll take that every day.
Every day.
Especially with – I can't help but look at the other blue chips, the other MAG-7, the S&P 500.
the other blue chips, the other Mag 7, the S&P 500, like S&P 500 is only 0.5% from a new all-time
ever and breakout above 7K. Like someone with a lot of buying power and money was just buying
everything today. Everything. So many of the Mag7 finished green. They went out on their shopping list.
If you pull up the weekly chart of S&P 500, that was a higher low today.
Hell, the weekly is still green. The issue that I have from a trader's perspective is I have to
isolate my positions. Otherwise, it can become really convoluted.
You know, if I start trying to think, you know,
pertain, like be like, oh, you know,
if I'm viewing this on the SPY,
it's going to pertain too much to like Bitcoin or ETH
or, you know, the IWM to ETH
or, you know, like what is XYZ going to do
versus like, you know, intermarket analysis.
It becomes pretty convoluted for me. And I have to kind of keep my assets separated, uh, from like a mental perspective
because like, yes, I see the SMP going higher. I absolutely do. Like I see
metals looking tremendously strong. Right. maybe it's like because for instance like
like david i see he you know has a much more granular perspective on the markets that i
don't i don't have that kind of knowledge and because of that i have to separate my asset
classes otherwise it becomes extremely muddied um from trading perspective. That's fair. That's totally fair.
You know, everyone has their own strategy and how it makes sense to them,
and there's no wrong answer.
I'm just – oh, anyone have an eye on earnings?
Because we're getting some major news tonight.
tonight. Anything come out yet? It's already 425.
Anything come out yet that's already 425?
That would be
either small caps or David
would know
about that.
Nobody important
came out.
David, all right. Now,
I need you to just yell
as much
as possible about your thoughts
and really just take it home, man.
You gave us a sample size yesterday.
That was a trial.
That was only a trial.
Did you work in Wall Street by any chance in the 80s?
Are you kidding me?
Of course.
I have plenty of Citigroup stock that I don't have access to because I'm too young.
And I may not get anything from it, in my view.
David, I'm assuming you've seen movies like Boiler Room, Margin Call, Trading Plays.
Yeah, but I've also seen Silver in the 70s.
Oh, wow.
What?
That's where I got my start, silver in the 70s.
Man.
And I don't mean the $70 price locally, but in the 1970s.
Yeah.
I waited on gas lines.
David, did you trade in the pit?
Were you in the pit?
No, no, no.
But my navigation to a block volatility trader was essentially pit level,
but I did it across all assets.
So I didn't just limit it to fixed income and mortgages.
I fed the data of all the stuff I was watching.
And then I did credit at Bayer.
And when I realized that Black Scholes,
who got the Nobel Prize, had a flawed model.
And that was in 1989.
And then they blew up long-term capital management the year after they got the Nobel Prize.
Black was dead already.
David, how was that 87 crash, man?
It was brief.
It was brief.
Soros caused it.
And Greenspan actually gave a call to steve mnuchin's dad
steve mnuchin was in the administration um and now he's a movie producer whatever
but greenspan called his dad and says buy everything because we're going to go it wasn't
insider trading the dealers had lost all their money so they told to buy everything we're going
to come in later so just buy whatever you can and make the profit and then stabilize the markets.
But it was Soros who put on the thing, and Soros made a lot of money on October 19th, and he gave it back on October 20th.
Sorry to quickly interrupt, but you'll probably want to hear.
Apple crushed earnings.
Apple just reported, and wow, they blew it out of the park.
And watch how little it resolves itself.
I mean, we'll see.
Okay.
Anyway, so first I want to tell everyone,
you have to understand,
I used to go on a lot of spaces,
and I will be soon.
As soon as Bitcoin hits the one-year low,
when microstrategy, which is, what, 140 right now,
135 is down 80%.
108 is 85%.
And then I used 90.2, 90.1, because he, excuse me, 90.9, because he fell 90.8 in 38 days.
He went from 14 billion down to1 billion or something of net worth.
But I want to congratulate the host, because when it wasn't favorable,
he would give me space to not talk about where Bitcoin had to go,
but to give people the opportunity to recognize you have two eyes, two ears, two nostrils,
and you have one mouth. That mouth is your expression of the positions you take.
You should use your mouth. You should take risk, but you should use the information from your eyes,
your ears, and your nose where markets may go. You have to have symmetry in your risk models.
where markets may go. You have to have symmetry in your risk models. There is no such thing as no
trade that could go down. A trade could go down, but it can't go below zero.
So I want to congratulate the host because he let me speak when it wasn't favorable.
He stood up for people who are making obnoxious comments. And I will go much more widely when I have things that people can't
dispute, like a 52-week low on Bitcoin. It's going to be difficult at a 52-week low when all
the normies, as they say, are just getting blown out of it. And the problem is, we had one of the
speakers today talk about something
I'd like to clarify. When you buy a stock, there are three things that control the price.
Number one, the earnings. Number two, the sentiment. And number three, the underlying
liquidity in the system. You don't have the earnings in Bitcoin, so you have the underlying
liquidity and the sentiment. It is not only the wave function of the sentiment.
It's the wave function of the liquidity.
And since the time I started going on Spaces,
I cannot get people to want to take more than two minutes to listen.
That's why we run Spaces and we run subscriber Spaces
for much deeper understanding.
But if you do not know the wave function
of how mortgages work,
you will not be able to keep your money in Bitcoin
because the mortgage volatility engine
creates money supply and it destroys it.
If you don't understand that,
you'll think rate cuts cause liquidity to rise.
And it doesn't always do that. And so I appreciate the time you gave me yesterday.
And, you know, some of my listeners loved the space. I mean, they could not, you know,
and some said, please don't go and spike the football. I'm not spiking anything.
I only care about people losing less
money so they can take more risk and make more money and change their family, change their
community, help the blind, the poor, the elderly, change the world. But you can't do it if you're
so dogged that you can't imagine hitting the sell button. You know, when George W. Bush
entered the White House,
the Clinton people took the letter W off of all the keyboards.
You know, they always want one administration or another, they do a spoof.
They took the Ws off.
You've got to have a sell button,
or you're just going to be committed to nonsense.
Okay?
So let's go into some of the markets.
Apple's having a big reaction.
Yeah, it's up a massive 2%.
Massive.
Well, refresh. Now it's three.
Massive 3%. You had, you had, you had, you had,
wasn't it supposed to.
Meta was up 12%.
Last week you were telling us it was going to 240.
It's now 270.
Did I say it was going to 240 on this earnings report?
Yeah, your mama thesis.
I remember the mama.
Yeah, the mama's not doing well.
IGV is now in a bear market.
How about that?
IGV divided by QQQ, lowest ever.
IGV divided by SMH, lowest ever.
It takes time.
Indonesia was down the...
Yeah, but that's great, but you told us Apple.
Apple would go to 230, 240.
I said, Mama, did I say...
No, no, no.
Don't mislead what I said.
I said, Mama, I didn't say every single name.
I said, Mama, as a basket. every single name. I said mama as a basket.
You, a mama, Apple is pretty big in mama.
That's right.
It's barely up.
Microsoft is down 12%.
Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.
It could go down.
Apple could go down.
No, no, but it's not about that.
Microsoft was down 12%.
You know how challenging it will be to have mama up through earnings
when Microsoft is down 12%?
Microsoft's about to...
And what is that Apple do?
Like, congrats on being bearish Microsoft,
but the other two companies blew your short out of the water.
Like, that's the problem.
You see, you don't...
Unfortunately, I'm trying to protect you
from the reality of your lack of math.
But when I say a basket of four names,
it has a market value of $12 trillion approximately.
I care about the basket.
I don't care about each individual node.
You're right on one and two.
No, no, no.
Microsoft is down so much
the ability of the other ones
to take the basket to being up.
Okay. And I don't care if it's
down this corner. That's the whole
point. We have plenty of liquidity in the
system. What I care about
is microstrategy is leading
the way lower. It's down
75% from
its high. That wasn't part of your mama.
You're not, you're not, you're interrupting and you got to, you're going to be muted
if you don't stop. Okay. I didn't interrupt you when you said stuff that I think is so
wackadoodle. You're going to be so wrong. You're going to lose so much money. I feel so badly for
you. I didn't interrupt you. So stop interrupting me,
or you'll be blocked. I mean, not blocked, taken down so you can't speak.
So I need you to stop now and let me get going. You're afraid to hear my words because you're
afraid to hear other people hear the symmetry of maybe it goes up, maybe it goes down. Like
yesterday, I said Bitcoin could go up, it could go down. If it goes up, maybe it goes down. Like yesterday, I said Bitcoin could
go up, it could go down. If it goes up, I'm a buyer. If it starts accelerating versus the NASDAQ,
I'm a buyer. You don't have a sell button. You said you were about to sell down at 60,
and they said, no, I never sell my Bitcoin. So you change in the middle, and all of my listeners
heard that flimflammary. So I need you to be quiet, and I won't address you, and you don't have to worry about being insulted.
What I care about is people having symmetry. Things can go up, things can go down, and when
they're going down, they're going down. Now, when I hear about people talking about a weekly,
that's wonderful. That's hedge funds. But I don't give a crap about weekly
when I got monthly. And go look at the month. It doesn't end in three days. It ends in 56 hours.
And I put up in the nest a very, very, very dangerous chart for Bitcoin longs.
So please look up in the nest. This is the work we do in my subscriber spaces.
This is the work we do in my subscriber spaces.
Okay, you take Bitcoin like any other asset.
If you work on a dealer desk,
if you advise a dealer desk for volatility,
where there's a lot of leverage,
and you're trying to stabilize the firm's balance sheets,
you take the gamma, which is the price,
you take the volatility,
you watch that interrelationship.
That's what had all of our people noticing money and traders and swing traders going from Bitcoin over to silver.
And then they could go 500 leverage.
And one of the people, I would love it if we could get duck soup up to speak, if you're okay with it, Mr. King Wahabi, tremendous.
I don't know if a duck wants to come up, but an invitation would be great to describe what we heard in our discussion of the gamma versus the vega.
What that signaled to us, it peaked on September 18th
two weeks later
that's going down while people are still buying Bitcoin
and that led to the crash
the peak three days later
and the crash a week later
and that same dynamic
signaled silver's going to melt up
because it's leading
its own volatility higher
and now it was party time.
12's up, 12 down, 12 up, 12.
Gold had its first 10% range day in 12 years.
And people are looking at stuff that's paint drying.
It's paint drying on this Bitcoin thing.
People are leaving.
And now we have a monthly bear hammer, massive tail, lower level than
the open.
You got 56 hours to cure that, or that's a lot of negative power.
And I'm absolutely open to prices going up, but when you have an organized, eigenbasis-driven chart
where you've got MicroStrategy down 75%,
pulling Bitcoin down a tremendous amount.
The crypto community was $4.28 trillion on 3.6.
And now it's 2.86.
Down $1.42 trillion.
Down 33%.
Are you guys seeing SanDisk right now?
It was up 15% on there.
Yeah, there's demand for memory.
That's nuts, man.
Didn't you mention that two weeks or last?
I've been talking about Sandisk on this space for like two months now.
I've been talking about SanDisk on this space for like two months now.
Exactly, because what you're saying is you can't only limit yourself to the rearview mirror.
Watch what's working.
You said Sandisk was working, and now it's reaming the shorts.
Yeah.
But if they don't listen to you, they don't make the money.
They're stuck with their head in falling alts.
And you're saying, buy something that's going up,
and it's ripping people apart.
David, speak a bit louder.
Okay, well, I've got to move the phone closer to my mouth.
By the way, I woke up this morning, not in pain,
but very, very sore from the gym.
But it was great because we're going to be running weekly Monday morning. Excuse me, monthly Monday morning. David, what did you hit in the gym. But it was great because we're going to be running weekly, Monday morning.
I'm assuming, monthly Monday morning.
David, what did you hit in the gym?
What muscle groups specifically?
She did everything.
She did everything. She did legs
and arms, stretching,
and then
these things called
biceps, triceps,
quadriceps.
Do I have a quintuset?
I don't know.
So you know about muscle parts, don't you, David?
I do, right?
I do.
The problem is I'm old and tight.
So check this out.
Look, before I pass it over to Small Cap, right,
I'm sure some of you guys have heard this before,
but maybe you haven't,
right? We have to hear it again, but you really should write it down. You should write it down
so you can read it more quickly. Exactly. Everyone is so excited to hear this. We are. Especially
the listeners that have been listening to me for years. All right. So check this out. And I gave
this one to Peter Schiff. All right. Prometheus is so excited to hear this one, okay? Did you remember Scott Adams?
He would do that at the beginning.
He'd say, he had a song where everyone would sing,
Tanker, Chalice, and Stein.
You should start every spaces with that
and make everyone sing along with you.
Oh, man, dude.
No, because that way you get them participating
and they get them addicted.
So write it down and then post it and sing it.
Let everyone can join you in saying it.
It's the anthem.
So Prometheus, maybe you can follow me up with what I'm about to say, okay?
Don't try and get by.
Or you'll get dealt with.
And trapped.
Or even worse, quatted and pecked at
so you have to watch the calves
exactly
you've got to write that down
and make it sing song
and we'll all say it
aloud and be part of your
community write it down
and read it at the beginning
of your spaces during the dead time we've been hearing
that for what like for years two years right for almost four years almost it still cracks me up
like i said i don't know it's it's it's like in 2023 when we were like discussing why is orange
juice futures outperforming btc that was like some of the weirdest that was like the weirdest anomaly
ever like i i think every single year since 2022 there's been a commodity that outperforms btc
unfortunately now every commodity is beating btc that's the problem in 22 you had oil, even though it only lasted a few months. And then in 23, you had orange juice futures.
And then in 24, you had gold.
And in 25, you had silver.
In 26, it's everything.
It's everything.
I would say now it's uranium is probably like – maybe I it's, uh, uranium is probably like, it's maybe, I think
Evan might be right on that one.
Rice futures.
Watch.
Right.
No, no, no, no, no, no.
That's the problem in Japan.
Rice was up 200%.
They don't take in imports.
So when rice futures go down, there's going to be no inflation in Japan.
By the way, the 20 year Japanese government bond in the 40,
they have a giant wick up 100.
The yields of the Japanese 40 was up... How the fuck do you know the correlation between rice futures and Japan's beans?
Listen, David knows everything.
No, no, no.
Rice futures in Japan distorted their CPI
and helped cause their 40 year go up
over 100 times in yield
they had a 4.1 basis
point yield on their 40 year
2439 year
payback period and now
it goes up to 420
you know marijuana level
and next thing you know boom
it's now down 390
David do you enjoy a little Zaza?
I'm not, I mean, pizza or I don't know what Zaza is.
No, no, no.
Do you partake in the festives, as some may call?
I don't have any, I don't take, I don't drink, I don't smoke.
I don't use aspirin other than for my heart.
And I did have to take some naproxen for these muscles yesterday.
But I generally don't ingest anything.
I'm so unhealthy with my ability to scream.
It's very not good.
If you could imagine me screaming on these mind-altering things,
it would not work out very well.
Man, on-chain really sucks.
I'm looking at stuff right now, and it's so...
Floppy? Soggy?
Yeah, it is looking soggy i tell you what um you know what's crazy we were talking about like is crypto related people we were talking about this yesterday the
beginning of the space where like everyone is piling up on cz and they're realizing that like
usually when someone's called the king of crypto they're
usually like the actual villain and now price is doing this and all the cell flows are coming from
binance um and what's crazy is that like 1010 literally happened right when he went on thread
guy's stream like literally five minutes after his stream ended and i think it was like the biggest crypto live
stream it had like almost 10k 10k like live listeners and then cz is like all right we
got to liquidate the zoomers now and then binance jr came out and then it's like all right we got
to liquidate the kids now that's out that's that binance jr literally launched right when btc was at like 95 96k
93 sandisk is up 80 dollars that's nuts no no i remember i went on a call with edward um in like
november i'm like yo like people might find a better market in ai he's our dev by the way and
i'm like what the hell is this thing And it's like some hardware stuff or whatever. And it was in a range for a couple of weeks.
And this thing has a market cap of like under 80 bill.
I mean, short term, like, I'm not sure how much juice this thing has left.
Well, after this.
Yeah.
But the thing is, you have a skill to see something that's in a direction and stable and ready to punch.
But it doesn't only exist in the world of crypto.
It exists amongst other prices.
And whether it punches up or punches down, I just ask people, watch what's happening.
The IGV dropped 6%. It's at its lowest level ever relative to the NASDAQ or the SMH.
That's information.
And they're the biggest customers of NVIDIA.
Yeah.
How is NVIDIA going to work out over the next six months?
You know what's crazy?
Ever since Taylor tweeted out that weird ai image
of him escaping a sinking ship mspr is down like 50 dude that was fucking wild bro
like he tweeted that out um i think it was very quiet he's very quiet now isn't he
yeah he's not really doing like podcasts he used to be super active on spaces though he went on
this like manic week-long rant on his timeline constantly bull posting trying to get people to
buy him how about that last so he can use them as exit liquidity. How about that 23K buy that he did
when he took it up to 97?
That's not looking so juicy.
Yeah.
97 down to 83.
That's 14K.
I know...
Do you know where his MNAV is right now?
I have no idea what MNAV is right now.
It's between one and two.
Zero.
It's between one and two.
It's between one and two.
I have no idea.
And I'm not sure it's above zero if you do fully diluted.
Oh, yeah.
The book value is 0.8 or even 0.7 something, but really just 0.8.
That's everything I need to know.
Dude, micro strategy looks like a Solana chart right now.
It looks like a mini strategy.
Yeah.
I mean, you know, but that's a great example.
Like, no one wanted to hear that in November, December 2024, you know.
And some of us had the post to prove it, like, hey, this is a blow-off top.
Hey, buying strategy.
And who sold the top, man?
Who sold the top of that?
Yeah, buying strategy at 3X, 4X, its value of its coins makes zero cents.
That's a donation.
Even Chano's got that.
The problem is people are misunderstanding.
If you ever worked at a hedge fund, imagine you work at SAC Capital,
and you're trying to put on a trade to buy strategy and Steve's putting it to sell, he will scream
at the top of his lungs, get the F off my trade. Okay. And if you bitched and moaned over the phone
to someone in your family, he'd throw you out and blackball you. You don't let anybody know your trades. And this psycho sailor is bragging about not one of his trades,
his only trade. How is the market not going to separate that coin from him? That's not how
markets work. It will take that coin and they will punch him down. They will short that. If
they have to, they'll buy some of his perpetually offered preferreds as an offset to the shorting of the strategy.
Went down 75
when the S&P's up. And that's my
point about Bitcoin.
He's not
in trouble unless
Bitcoin needs to lose this
range, maybe even the range below it.
No, that's not at all a true statement.
He's down 70 times
as much as the essence yeah
it's seven it's accelerating it's except my whole point is if something is accelerating there is a
force whether it's dark energy or liquidity or negative liquidity yes but his the value of his
the value of strategy the value of its company,
is just the coins on its balance sheet.
And until Bitcoin takes another leg lower,
the value of its coins is the same.
No, that's not at all correct.
That's not how markets work.
You can't say it's equilibrium state.
Boas Weinstein would say, you know, bad on you.
That's why closed-end funds trade at discounts
because you don't have control.
You don't have ETF liquidity.
The market is going to drive strategy down so low,
and if they've got to buy preferreds along the way
so they can have a hedge against the short,
they will drive that MNAP down to negative 20,
negative 30, negative 40,
because it's only 46 billion.
It's only 46 billion.
They could move that stuff,
and then they'll either sell coin to close that gap,
or they'll just keep on going lower, and someone else will do it for them.
What price would that happen at, though?
What price for MicroStrategy would that happen?
That's my question.
No, it's the discount.
It's the discount to its MNAV.
Whether it's $20 or $ 30, you have to buy that in
or someone will buy all your stock
and do the reverse chain-os.
Short the Bitcoin, buy your stock.
And then get control of the company
and puke out the Bitcoin to go flat.
What would that look like in terms of Bitcoin price
and microstrategy price?
Do we have any idea of that or no?
Well, it's got to be much lower.
Well, strategy doesn't move Bitcoin price over the medium long term.
No, no, it will move it as it goes.
Micro strategy at 75 down now and at a 1% premium MNAP.
You take strategy down below $100, you take it, what's it worth then?
$30 trillion?
Maybe $30 billion? You take it it lower people will lean on it you'll take it to a bigger discount strategy is down more than 100
percent more than bitcoin or 100 more than bitcoin since the high well sure because yes but that's
deceiving because strategy what yes but that's deceiving because strategy... What? Yes, but that's deceiving because strategy... I didn't hear what the gentleman said.
I just wanted to say if strategy holds $100, theoretically,
would any of this happen?
I think it may hold $100.
I strongly doubt it.
Because what's happening is...
Have you ever bought a house or have a relative that ever bought a house?
I own a condo.
Okay, did you pay cash or did you get a mortgage?
I have a mortgage. Okay, did you put cash or did you get a mortgage? I have a mortgage.
Okay.
Did you put down 80% and get a 20% mortgage or kind of the other way around?
I put down 30 something percent.
Okay.
But you didn't put down 65 and borrow 35.
Okay.
Well, MicroStrategy is borrowing so much.
They're adding too much capital.
All these preferreds that they're doing,
they're adding capital.
You're diluting the leverage.
People aren't going to be able to earn enough.
And the more they issue equity,
that preferred, the more they issue,
the more people are going to want to hedge off the preferreds
by shorting the stock. Just like Oracle, look at it. What a disaster. They sold those 18 billion
of notes. Their credit default swaps are entering high yield status, 150, 160, 170. It was 55 before
that. How are they ever going to have growth
and borrow more money to build up what they said
if they can't get access to capital?
NVIDIA gave money invested in CoreWeave or something,
or one of them.
And the thing went up,
but they're trading at 1,000 off.
That's distressed.
So it may look on the charts like 100's a good low.
100,
you know,
108 is down
80%. David,
what's the LTV?
That's a good question.
How much do they borrow and how many assets do they own?
What's that number?
Do you know it?
He's got equity
of $46 billion.
He's got total...
Excuse me.
The market cap of
MicroStory is about $46.
They've got
about $8 billion
in the preferreds
and about $8 billion in the debt, in the convertible debt.
So like 60.
You're saying his LTV is 60%?
No, no, 1%.
No, no, no.
How much Bitcoin does he own in relation to how much debt he has outstanding?
Oh, that's something else.
Yeah, so that answer, debt, is, he's got
$60 billion of
coin, almost, and he's got
$8 billion of debt.
So it's like,
it's about
10, you know,
12%.
Let's just call it under 20.
It's well under that, but let's call it under 20.
Oh, it's 15. No, well under 20.
15, yeah.
And then let's look at those loans, right?
Because we're talking about...
Yeah.
Exactly.
Let's talk about non-recourse loans
because we're going to have a conversation about loans, okay?
And so the question was asked,
at what price is he forced to liquidate?
Oh, no, that...
No, no, no, no, no, no.
Not because of a...
That was the question.
Yeah, but the liquidation is not based on
you need the money to pay off your debt.
And you don't need the money to pay your preferreds
because they're not required pay.
They're equity.
The point is, will market participants say
there's 60 billion a coin
and if they could get the price
down to 40 billion for the for the capital structure
meaning you could pay off the debt you could pay off the prefers that's uh 16 and then if you could
get uh the stock from 46 down to 30 uh 20 uh 29 so 29 and 16 is 45. That's 33% more value.
You'll have people say, I'll buy all the stock down 33,
and I'll short the coin.
I'll take control and dump all the coin into my short.
So the point is market participants aren't saying they'll run out of money.
That's not what they're doing.
That's not what they're doing.
They're saying, I want to shake loose that coin.
They're saying, I want to shake loose that coin.
It's harder to move $2 trillion of coin than it is $46 billion of equity.
So that's all I'm saying.
Market participants will drive that down, just like people short oil,
to be able to cause the Fed to cut, and they make more money on their bonds.
Paper oil is 50 times physical oil.
Of course there's not enough investment
in oil. Of course eventually it's going
to be $100, but it could go to
$40 first. And the point is
there's not a lot of equity there for people to
lean on it. And then
if you take out levels, you have stops,
I'm not saying they're going to be forced to.
I'm saying the CEO said...
That's what it sounds like.
No, no, I'm saying that the CEO said
if we're at a discount I will sell
because if he doesn't
he said the option is
available for him if they choose to
it ain't happening though
if they don't exercise it then someone will buy the company's
stock and they'll force them
to sell
there will be no forced selling
of bitcoin ever for that company because their loan to value
ratio no that's not no no that's not the point that's not non-recourse loan that's not the point
you're you're missing the whole discussion then what's your point because i'm trying to say market
participants forced to sell they're not going to be forced to do shit that's my point okay i'm
trying to cure you i'm trying to cure you. I'm trying
to cure you of a misunderstanding of what I'm saying. Okay. Okay. Market participants in
something as small as a $46 billion equity can drive that down by 50%, drive the company to a
33% discount to its coin. You will have serious hedge fund buying, and they will
buy all of the shares of MicroStrategy, and they will vote out the board, and they will say,
we want to sell the coin, and that will replace the short. You'll be able to get the coin to clean up your short. So you short micro strategy to a level
where it's at a discount to the coin. And if they don't sell coin to tighten that discount,
you just keep on shorting. You keep on shorting. And then what happens is that coin's coming out
either by the current CEO or the new one that gets voted in and agrees to
sell the coin and buy their stock back. Because the stock isn't worth, if it's trading at 46
billion at MNAV, it's not worth 23 billion. It's not worth 13. It's worth 46.
I think it's useful to ask why you don't see hedge funds employing the strategy and why Jim Chano's decided to close his short tax.
Because he took the easy money.
He took the free money like you did.
You took the free money.
I'm selling something.
But here's where it's risky.
Of course it's risky.
Of course it's risky. Of course it's risky. Of course it's risky. Okay, but I think this is why short interest afloat on strategy is only 10%
and you don't see a lot of hedge funds doing this trade
because I think they're really worried that if Bitcoin catches a bounce.
No, they're not worried about that at all.
They're not worried about that at all.
It's trading at a discount.
It went down twice as much as coin, which is 70 times
more than the S&P. It fell
70 times more than the S&P.
That is a mind-numbing number.
Okay, fine. Yes, but that's what happened.
Tell me what... Okay, let's
evaluate in a month.
Let's look back at a month. If I could finish.
Okay. But today,
strategy is trading at a
discount. Either you want to talk about its MNAP, it's trading at a discount. You want to talk about its book value, it is trading at a discount. Either you want to talk about it's MNAP, it's trading at a discount.
You want to talk about it's book value, it's trading at a discount.
The worry that hedge funds are looking at this today is if Bitcoin catches a bounce-
No, I-
Listen, I talk to real funds, not fake funds.
Nobody's worried about that.
Zero people are worried about what you're talking about.
The volatility of Bitcoin is so low, nobody's worried about it.
I was this close. I almost finished.
No, no, because you're saying things that are ridiculous.
Don't quote hedge funds when you don't know them like I know them.
Nobody's worried about what you just said.
I'll come back in a month and we'll evaluate.
Did the fact that it's at a discount now stop the accelerating lower?
It's a valid comment.
It's a different dynamic.
You're selling into a hole.
I totally accept what you're saying.
Unlike other things, that's a very valid statement.
I'll come back in a month with you.
We'll talk about it tomorrow.
I thought you just said it was ridiculous.
No, no, no.
It's ridiculous to say that funds are afraid to short micro strategy
because they're worried about coin going up.
You can still short coin, I mean micro strategy, they're worried about coin going up. You can still short coin
I mean micro strategy in a
rising coin. You want to
sell it down to a
discount and force
the company to either
sell coin
or you'll take over the structure.
It's not because Bitcoin goes up.
Yeah, but that's the risk. Like strategy
we've seen this too many times.
We have never seen it.
We have never.
No, but you're saying things.
You talk about a different world when strategy was leading the way higher.
It's the worst asset in the world.
I'm trying to say.
No, no, no.
I'm trying to say it goes both directions.
I'm agreeing.
Apple is up.
Apple is up a half a percent now.
It's up a half a percent on the
conference call. Anyway, if I could finish, I'm just trying to say that strategy trades is beta
to Bitcoin. It trades, you're right, it outperforms to the upside and it outperforms to the downside.
I'm agreeing with you. No, but can I say one thing? It may not be beta. It may be that it drags it along.
It's not that beta, that the basis is Bitcoin and strategy is the spread. And it's behaving
that way. The question is, and I'm not going to say it's determinative. It could be exactly as
you say, that strategy is beta, but it could be that because strategy is so unique,
it's causing Bitcoin to go lower because participants are smelling the blood
that all they need to do is take down what had been a $250 billion company,
is down to $46 billion, and if they could knock it down just $23 billion more,
all those coins will come loose.
Because if the current CEO doesn't do it, then they'll buy the stock, short the coin, and they'll flatten it themselves.
David, I can't think you guys might be over.
One second.
Wabi, one ounce of silver is worth more than one Solana coin.
Jeez, dude.
Does silver have any trending tokens on chain?
Yeah.
Can you pick up ducks?
Do you, KZ?
I know how to play DuckDuckGoose.
I'm actually pretty fast on my feet.
Do you see KZ?
Because she could explain to you, like, because she made some transition,
not from male to female to male, but from some Bitcoin to silver.
Do you see KZ?
That is actually nuts, man.
Silver's worth more than, more than, what's that guy's name a kyle salami coin
small caps you've had you've had you've had your hand up for a while small caps what's up man oh
man well i have a hard time you know going back to what i was going to talk about because we're
on such an unbelievable topic but go back go back go back david how are you terrific bullseye all right real quick we were
talking about sandisk i don't know if you remember um lobby what was it on monday we were kind of
talking about hbm um and just that demand for memory like there's a massive global memory
shortage crisis right now and it's going to grip in 2026
uh moving forward like every single cloud service maybe not wait david wait real quick i've learned
so hold on so i met david last week or maybe the week before i've learned a lot from you david in
the last couple weeks and i i think i want to, a lot market related, a lot bond related.
The one thing that I think I've learned the most from you and that I've implemented
is that I don't let people cut me off on spaces anymore. And I mute them.
I mute them. So you're running the risk of getting muted right now.
You're the man. Thank you. But anyways quick listen these uh these clouds these cloud services
are gobbling up 70 percent of the memory production um the memory hbm for gpus are
sold out through next year nan flash storage uh prices are through the roof sky hynix micron
samsung um they're they're massive shortage.
We've been seeing that.
So I think, um, Sandisk it's rocket fuel.
I think they can go higher, you know, NAND based solutions are the backbone for the AI cold storage tiers.
And it handles the, the, what is it?
Petabytes for the training data.
It doesn't, and it doesn't break the bank.
Um, but I, now I have two questions for David,
or I guess I already asked you a question. I said, how are you? David, aside from the joke,
I've learned a ton from you the last couple of weeks regarding, you know, it's one thing to know
about like fundamentals and just stocks and what they're doing earnings, but having a higher understanding of the,
of, you know, the bond market mortgages, the flow of money is extremely important.
I was on a spaces with you a couple of days ago and I said to you, I called you a contrarian,
right? At the, the, a different view from like the bulls. And I basically called you a bear.
And you said to me that you're not a bear. You're probably the most bullish person.
I'm the most bullish person on the internet, yes.
And I think it would be an amazing time to explain that
or basically kind of tap into that because you were, you know,
you're talking about mama, it's the end of the world, you know,
micro strategy, Sia, a big, big correction for, you know, Fang, mama.
Like, how are you the biggest bull on the planet?
There is no possibility of a recession as far as the eye can see. There's no way to get a
recession this year. It's impossible. We have a hundred plus trillion of equity. We've got a big
fat deficit. If you don't get a recession, where's the money going to go? The Bitcoin money.
You know, I posted up in the Nest, WCloud, okay? Let me be clear. I'm not negative on SanDisk. I
wouldn't go near a short of SanDisk with my enemy's money. That thing is melting up. What I'm saying,
though, is that a lot of the orders for a lot of this memory are not going to be maintained.
is that a lot of the orders for a lot of this memory are not going to be maintained.
Microsoft is not going to do the build-out that they said with their stock
going to a 52-week low as of May 11th.
You know, when we take out that spoof from Liberation Day,
and all of that data is out, and then Microsoft is at a nine-month low and going lower.
They're not going to maintain their buys.
And then you're going to have Meta, who didn't buy
a share of stock back. Okay, that's not going to hold up very long. So when you see these orders,
they're not orders, they're kind of indications of interest. And it always happens when the
biggest consumers say, my stock price can't handle it. So I'm not shorting i'm not a lunatic it's a it's going crazy but i would
be waiting for it to start to decay because because it's super cyclical much more so than nvidia
okay but the reason why i'm the biggest bull is because if you cannot destroy the 100 trillion
dollars of equity that these sick politicians created since 2008,
which was one of the bases for the crypto space.
The money's going to go somewhere.
And like that Kool-Aid commercial
with the person wearing the Kool-Aid
and smashing through the wall,
that money is a dual-edged sword on the way up.
It drives up crypto.
It drives up tech.
It's beautiful.
David, what does the Kool-Aid guy say when he blasts through the wall?
I don't know.
I don't know.
What does he say?
You know what he says.
I don't know.
I remember.
Cool?
What?
I don't know.
Prometheus, you probably know this.
Yeah, bro.
What does he say?
I don't know.
Oh, my goodness.
Dude, come on.
You guys are. I'm pretty sure he just says, oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Okay. yeah bro what does he say I don't know oh my goodness oh dude come on you guys
you guys are I'm pretty sure he just says oh yeah oh yeah oh yeah anyway come
on you gotta put some more bass oh yeah and I need some background music okay
but that money is going somewhere and this is one of the insights I want to offer people.
Whether I'm right or wrong, it's everything.
I think I'll be right. I could be wrong. I accept that.
But I think that money flow that's visiting in the silver and gold right now,
in the precious metals, in the anti-dollar world,
is that money leaks increasingly into staples,
healthcare, utilities, and mortgages,
those are going to become high beta.
There's not enough stock to meet the automated flows.
If you don't have a recession, I mean,
what was the initial claims today?
209?
What was the continuing claims?
1.82 in change
where the hell are you getting
a recession in that environment
so if
David can I ask you a quick question
sorry I had my hand up
so is it fair to say
eventually we'll see gold silver top
Bitcoin bottom in Q2 and then we see
rotations
so why are you against the idea?
Because Bitcoin has got to go much lower.
There's no volatility left in it.
So I put up in the nest.
I put up in the nest the chart.
Look at that chart, that monthly chart in Bitcoin denominated in its own volatility.
It's melting down.
There's so much confidence that Bitcoin isn't going up by participants.
They're selling
volatility the swing traders are dropping their offers because the all the the the hopium that
the the 85 80 500 was a low and then you know sailor buying it up to 23k or what 23 000 coins
or whatever but all of that all of that dip buy were below the lowest daily close
in the whole time frame since.
And when you clean out the low below,
let's say $79.99,
and you close there for a day, a week,
a month, two months,
it's just going lower.
And where do you see gold at that rate then?
There's enormous volatility in gold and silver.
Enormous.
For traders, they're making such bank, 10% move in gold in a day?
It used to have a vol of 8.
That's a half a percent a day.
It did 20 days of trading in an afternoon.
That's traders heaven. Silver had a 29% day yesterday or whatever,
the day before. It was up 12, down 17. This is heaven. It's because you Bitcoin people,
you now have access to 500 leverage. You're going to run over these paper guys, or you ran over these paper guys,
paper, silver, you ran over them. But now it's time for the adults to enter the room.
And now myself, I would be shorting, I don't advise anyone, but I would be shorting silver volatility, gold volatility. Silver and gold could go up. Bitcoin went up for a year after its volatility failed.
Its volatility fell.
So vol was 31.41 in August of 23 when Powell went to a pause.
He didn't hike in August.
You know, he had the July, and then they signaled they're not.
That sent Bitcoin up 400%.
But Bitcoin didn't even go up as much as its volatility for the first year.
And then once vol peaked, Bitcoin just kept on going from like 70 all the way up to 126.
The volatility come down eventually, September 18th of last year,
we saw the Bitcoin denominator in its volatility get to a blow-off top of 700,
and then it just went down 70%. Bitcoin only fell 30, but that data set, the vol as the basis and
the Bitcoin as a spread, it collapsed. And now what we're doing is working some of that vol
of all off, but Bitcoin denominator andations volatility had an ugly close today.
It's below the open of the month with a massive tail.
And you've got 56 hours left to clean that thing up.
Or you've got a lot of pressure.
Okay.
And since you're like bearish on Bitcoin for the rest of the year, I'm going.
It's more than a year.
So what do you see S&P 500 then?
I'm just trying to understand where the money is going to get.
I love Staples Healthcare and Utilities.
And I think that a lot of
money is going to flow. It went from
Bitcoin to gold and silver.
You're going to have a lot of people make a lot.
Wabi is going to tell all of you.
I told you to look at SanDisk
and he said, look at its bull tail.
But he's going to be telling you,
look at mama, its bear tail is going to be more expressive. You don't have to be early,
but when it starts gapping down, melting down like Microsoft, okay, when you have 12 trillion,
not some pishikaka, two and a half trillion, two and a half trillion Bitcoin, when you have 12
trillion, and then as mama's going down, when Meta's below yesterday's low,
when Meta's below yesterday's low,
and Microsoft is just disgusting,
that's 30%.
That's 30% of NVIDIA's book.
NVIDIA's got to be joining the party.
Mama, no.
NVIDIA and oracle broadcom and and that's that's that's 18 trillion dollars not
two and a half and as they go lower that money's going to go somewhere because there's no recession
and i think it goes into this low beta stuff and when when the great traders who get on chain or
whatever that thing's called when they can get 500 leverage,
they're going to start stepping into this stuff. And this stuff, I think, is price discovery.
So back in 2000, the S&P fell 17, while tech fell 57 in less than 10 months, 3.3x.
This time, I don't think it's going to, I think these staples, which went up 45% after the peak in 2000,
I think they keep on running.
And I think they're going to run because of people on this space.
Because if you listen to Wabi and you watch what the hell's working and he sends you to SanDisk and now you notice that it's up
the same amount that Microsoft's down, SanDisk is up.
Watch what's working, not what you think.
Okay, he's been warning you about
it for weeks or months, at least since I've been on weeks. He just says, watch what's working.
So I'm saying you'll start to see mama at its heaviness and then Nvidia and Broadcom and Oracle.
But when those start accelerating lower down into a bear market like IGV,
But when those start accelerating lower down into a bear market like IGV,
hedge funds don't have any net long position.
Institutions are out.
The dealers are drowning in negative gamma.
This thing goes down.
It's going to go down ugly.
And you guys are going to join the party that are smart and trade with the flow
and say, I'm not going to get big up here.
But as it gets lower, I am going to squeeze the life out of these longs.
I'm going to hunt those longs and make them puke out their paper.
You'll expand your leverage.
The system has never dealt with people like you.
You have to understand, we've never had a deal with this crowd.
You guys can go from zero to infinity in an instant.
It's like the Big Bang.
And you're going to attack
every single system. These banks cannot withstand you Bitcoin traders. You're going to run them over.
You're going to flatten that curve. You're going to make them say goodbye. Look at JP Morgan,
all their fake earnings. They didn't write off all their bad debts. So how about Citigroup?
You don't know what it's like knowing i'm gonna get nothing in a pension
in max shares you don't know what it's like you've got to watch what's working because
you folks can super accelerate you were buying altcoins and driving through the roof when
they're worth zero what do you think you're going to do when things are insanely high? You're going to move them down.
That money's going to go somewhere.
It's going to go into real companies that have been used as a source of funds.
Merck and Pfizer, are you kidding?
These were the greatest companies in the world.
And now they're like dog trash.
Amgen, they're going to cure cancer.
So just look what's working.
Keep your eyes open.
Don't only use the rearview mirror.
Don't excuse a failing price.
Don't move the goalposts on yourself.
Make the money and give it to charity if you don't want it.
But don't throw it away because you're so arrogant.
You can't take your eyeballs off your
cell phone and your rearview mirror listen to this wobby guy he's telling you buy sandin now he's
going to be telling you he's watching i hate to cut you off david i need to add i need to add to
this this glory that's happening right here uh light uh Jagme, I think you're asking this question. I think you
asked about the S&P question because you're probably referring to S&P trending higher,
new all-time highs, expectations that Bitcoin's going higher. Am I wrong?
Yes, yes, exactly.
Okay. Now, that is a very precarious situation. And this is what we were talking about earlier
on the show. I don't know if you were here and why each trade needs to be viewed in a separate light, right?
Separate and together.
Separate and together.
Exactly.
And sure, you know, the majority of the time,
Bitcoin does follow the S&P
and we've been tremendously blessed
with the opportunity within crypto for the fact that when we do experience this following nature, it is usually brought tremendous amount of returns to either side, to either direction.
But it's not always the case.
And I talked about this on Last Space.
And I went on this huge rant Last Space.
The crypto trader
and the crypto participant within the space
has almost become,
and we've almost become entitled.
And what do I mean by that?
Is we've been maybe lulled into this.
We've maybe been conditioned into it.
Can I tell you why you were conditioned?
They increased the balance sheet at the Fed lulled into this. We've maybe been conditioned into it. Can I tell you why you were conditioned?
They increased the balance sheet at the Fed from $897 billion to $8.9 trillion. They added a decimal. Liquidity. Yes, yes, yes. And we're a liquidity sponge, like you say. We're sensitive
and reflexive, most importantly, to that liquidity. Accelerating liquidity.
What David is saying and what David is saying and what david is
saying and what i want to add to just simplify the frame of reference or the viewpoint is that
sometimes trades will trend together sometimes they will not trend together and when things
stop working you have to accept that they stop working you have to stop it's okay no it's worth
no but it's worse than that.
Because the system gets structurally set that they're pair trades
and people hedge one off against the other.
And when it breaks down, they have to unwind.
That's a convergence trade blown.
That blew up LTCM.
And when you have the S&P within a whisker of a high
and Bitcoin continues to accelerate lower, it's not just going down, it's accelerating lower.
Bitcoin kept on going.
And it participates in all the downside and it participates in none of the upside.
That's gold.
That's gold what you said.
said jerry gold gold right banyan says gold exactly and and to your point like you know
Jerry, gold.
Gold.
Right.
Banya says gold.
Exactly.
when matt and i were kind of when matt and i were talking earlier and i mentioned i have to
keep my trades i can't start doing too much intermarket analysis i have to keep my trades
very very very separate and sometimes there's confluence between different asset classes right
sometimes there's confluence between different tickers sometimes you know the more confluence between different asset classes, right? Sometimes there's confluence between different tickers.
Sometimes, you know, the more confluence, obviously, the better, right?
That means that everything is kind of pointing in the same direction, and it'll make sense to you, right?
All this time and effort and energy you spent staring at the charts, learning about fundamental analysis, learning about how companies work, yada, yada, yada, yada.
That gets baked into your subconscious.
And there'll be times where a trade will show itself and it'll
be good be very very very obvious but the worst thing you can do is force a trade the worst thing
that you can do is force a trade will a trade into wealth willing a trade is the wealth is prayer
that's good for a church not your investments exactly we're not here to hope we're here to
make money and the most important thing too is that when you start
trying to force a trade and when a trade is clearly not working you have to accept that and that's the
number one key to master as a trader is the emotions at least to scale out of what's not
working don't move the goal posts and exactly and everybody can draw lines on a chart right
everybody for the most part,
can break down a balance sheet, right?
Or they can at least learn to do so, right?
People can learn market dynamics,
but the hardest part for 99% of people,
because 99% of people aren't psychopaths,
is managing the emotion, right?
And if you can get that part,
then the rest just falls know falls into place right um
and like we had thought iwm was or i should say bitcoin was extremely correlated to the iwm so
the expectation was that okay as the iwm and as the russell starts to break into new all-time highs
where you know the idea is is that's you know probably an ease in monetary conditions, right?
Cost of capital is getting reduced.
The shitcos of the world are doing well.
That probably means that Bitcoin is doing well
because we're in a speculative frenzy in the markets.
Well, unfortunately, that has not been the fact.
And the idea that the IWM or that Bitcoin is largely correlated to the IWM,
at least as of right now, is just simply not the fact.
Right.
And that's where we just kind of have to accept when we're wrong and swallow the ego and swallow our pride and sometimes swallow big losses.
That way that we can live to fight another day.
Can I tell you, do you know why COVID is so harmful to humans and not bats?
And why we get rabies and bats are fine and we're not?
Because our immune systems are more fragile.
We can't overcome those viruses.
You can't have O2, oxygen, breathing oxygen, straight.
You need a blend of nitrogen it's too much it'll harm your blood
over too much bitcoin can handle accelerating liquidity we had accelerating liquidity in 19
in in um in the covet era it thrived on accelerating liquidity other things couldn't
keep up they couldn't keep up. They couldn't keep up.
But we don't have accelerating liquidity. We only have rising liquidity. It's not an acceleration.
And the deceleration of the acceleration is what's being observable in strategy leading coin lower.
And whether strategy is an eigenbasis of coin or whether there's something special and there's an incredible
gravity while dragging micro strategy under 100 and under 50 and under 25 it doesn't matter
you're observing a divergence and nobody thought that was the right thing people thought strategy
was uh that that coin was 3x everyone did the charts charts, TQQQ over Bitcoin. And they were like,
together. So people used one as a hedge for the other. That hedge has gone bad.
You can't short NASDAQ puts, you know, against short Bitcoin puts. It wiped you out.
against short Bitcoin puts.
It wiped you out.
Things are expressing their true nature
when we're losing liquidity.
Rising asset prices doesn't mean rising liquidity.
We, in every case, sometimes it does.
We saw the money going from Bitcoin
and the volatility of Bitcoin is imploding.
We started the day under 38.2,
meaning a 2% move was unexpected. A more than
2% move was unexpected. And when we started melting down more than 2%, people are starting
to buy more puts, overpaying for the puts. Dealers are saying, no mas, I'm done. They're backing away.
They're driving up the price of the puts. And they drove the price of the puts so high, driving vol up by 35%,
33% on Bitcoin. That gave you a local equilibrium. You only could go down 5% today.
But we have to watch. We've got a month closed in 56 hours, 55 hours. You've got to do some cleaning up
because then you're on a countdown.
We're already dealing with a quarterly bearish engulfing candle
with a lot of supply distribution.
And then after that, everything since July of last year
is now underwater.
That's got to travel.
That's going to be distributed.
Swing traders are going to be much more aggressive with their lower highs. They've got too go. That's got to travel. That's going to be distributed. Swing traders
are going to be much more aggressive with their lower highs. They got too much paper on the
sheets. They got to shrink their size. So I am saying there are so many things going on.
If you just listen, don't do what Wabi says. Just look at what he says and see if it resonates with
you. See if the things he's pointing out.
And I'm asking you also, also look at the negative side.
Because my view is that after the dot-com,
volatility of the NASDAQ exploded to three times the size
of the volatility of the VIX.
And in some cases, four times as much.
So anybody that's using VIX as your signal, it's not healthy. I learned that too many people use VIX as a signal.
It's not healthy. It doesn't work. It works 90% of the time, 95% of the time, maybe 97,
but it's those three. That's the opportunity. Gold and silver, their cicada is the last time he had to move was 2011.
And this goes right back, right into the ground.
Where's that money going to go?
It's going to go into stock.
But some of that money, a lot of that money,
is going to go into the short side of stock,
getting these high-value companies down.
And that money without a recession
is going to go from banks and tech.
The disposable income of the homeowner
is going to be delish
when that Bitcoin money goes into mortgages.
We have the lowest mortgage rates in three years,
and they're going to go much, much lower.
In my opinion, much, much, much lower. And then you don't get a recession so the government deficit's not paying for all these
people not working and then it's gorgeous yeah you had your hand up go ahead bro
so i just remember three months ago 90 days ago, Bitcoin was struggling to keep its head above 103, 104.
We were fighting to hold its 50-week moving average or 365-day, if you prefer one-year chart.
And we kept saying over and over that, like, guys, no joke, if you lose the 50-week moving
average or 52 or, you know, whichever your favorite, but if you lose this moving average,
it's a bear market for Bitcoin. And you got to expect it lasts anywhere for another three to six months. And it's three months later. And look, hand up. I was
one of the biggest bears on Bitcoin and crypto in fall 2025. I was. But all throughout January,
and January is about to end, all throughout January, I just keep seeing different signs
that the bears are getting dealt a worse hand and the bull's hand is strengthening.
Whether you want to talk about CPI, whether you want to talk about employment data, whether you want to talk about we're in the middle of earning season,
whether you want to talk about, hey, that government shutdown finally ended and hopefully we don't have another one here, whether you want to talk about
trade negotiations and tariffs. I just kept seeing that the bears thesis was not playing out and the
bulls thesis kept getting better. And I think that's exactly why you see S&P 500 flirting with
a new all-time high and breakout. NASDAQ not far behind. Russell already did its thing.
It didn't wait on anyone.
Emerging markets, commodities, gold, silver, platinum, uranium, you name it.
Like everything else says, you know, that sell-off was cute, but we're going higher.
And I just put my, like I'm not a hedge fund and I would never short Bitcoin. Because that sell-off was cute, but we're going higher.
And I just put my, like I'm not a hedge fund and I would never short Bitcoin.
But it would be the most idiot.
I can't figure out a reason other than some sort of 3D, 4D chess volatility thing that David's talking about. I just can't see why I would short Bitcoin or be bearish Bitcoin
when everything else is bullish and going higher. Maybe next week, jobs data is terrible.
Maybe next week, oops, unemployment went higher. We had negative ADP and BLS jobs reports.
And maybe Bitcoin was the first to know it and sniffed it out early and
we'll revisit this and like, wow, what did the Bitcoiners know before everyone else?
But if that doesn't happen, I think anyone short Bitcoin is going to get blown out of the water.
I think it just doesn't make any sense. And I'm not I don't believe in efficient markets. But like
holding, you know, use whatever analogy you want, holding a balloon underwater. Eventually,
eventually smart money piles in and buys what's cheap and what's unloved, like all those things.
And so, yeah, I'm excited. I love that my energy stocks are doing well. I love that my AI stocks and data centers are doing well. And I would never sell my Bitcoin. And I got I'm a firm believer that like, unless something new happens, some sort of unexpected event, again, maybe it could be terrible jobs data next week. Maybe it's okay, everyone starts tanking earnings starting now. But unless
something unexpected happens, bears are on the wrong side of this trade.
Can I make a comment? I really, I mean, it does drive me crazy. Because what you're doing is
you're establishing a leading and a pacing. You're saying that the S&P is at a high and
maybe get some good information that goes higher. And then you jump over and then that conclusively means Bitcoin goes higher.
And what I'm saying is Bitcoin went up 1.3 billion percent.
That is 1,300 hundred million.
1.3 billion percent.
13 million times.
It went up so much faster than everything else.
You mean from like 2009?
From its beginning.
It went up 13 million times.
So it's allowed to compress to other things.
It doesn't require craziness.
And beyond the fact that just if you get strong data,
that should make people want to flatten the curve
and help the dollar go up.
Price in less, fewer cuts.
And that's just bad for tech.
But I don't care what...
Tech could go up, it could go down a little.
It's right at the highs, S&P's at the highs.
Bitcoin is accelerating. It's not the highs bitcoin is accelerating it's
not declining it's accelerating there's a difference i look at things non-linearly it's
almost impossible for the average person to look non-linearly you just don't do it you stretch out
of time you you try to make something linear i looked looked up, it's accelerating, and Bitcoin is being accelerated against it by strategy.
Show me a deceleration of the acceleration.
Give me some price evidence.
We're coming up on two very important,
a monthly and then a weekly right after that.
Show me strength, and I like it.
But saying that bears are in trouble because they're making so
much money sounds to me like a moving to the goalpost and defining alice in wonderland
bears are at their strongest position because not only is is um is the uh bitcoin essentially
a couple percent from its low but you don't even have elevated volatility,
that you'll have day traders come in and try to push it and break it out.
You've got volatility traders in control of the situation. And you don't have a high expected move
on a normal basis. When you see rising Bitcoin, you're seeing falling vol.
rising Bitcoin, you're seeing falling vol. That's people selling the puts. That's unnatural buying.
You've got vol at its lowest ever almost this morning. Less than $2 from its all-time low
monthly close. Down 98%. People are enjoying it. You've got the Bitcoin, the IBID. Someone said that IBID is an 88 price.
That money's coming out.
You take more weakness over the next quarter,
you know, in Mama,
and then NVIDIA starts to react to the fact that their biggest customers are losing share position.
Let's watch the price. Let's not overthink it. Let's not get cute with A, B,
and C are happening, and that causes D when there's no linkage. Bitcoin was not contained
by the sluggish S&P and FANG when it went up from $100 million to a trillion? Why should it be linked on the way down? We've already had a year
from outperformance at a lower and lower and lower pace until it starts to lead lower.
And there's adequate liquidity to keep the S&P stable. Money's going to be going into the low
beta. That's going to expand as the NASDAQ gets smaller.
More money will flow into the low beta from auto investors.
But there is no linkage.
If you chart S&P, NASDAQ, and Bitcoin, you'll see it went super accelerating higher.
And now it's still infinitely higher, even as it comes back down.
It's entitled to have a convergence.
Don't look at it as a divergence.
Bitcoin's axiomatic, you know, born on third base, think he hit a triple.
Bitcoin is still up 8.2 billion.
I assume the 8.2 decimals.
It's up 820 million percent.
I assume the 82 million,
it's going to be 800,
82 million times.
Bitcoin's up 82 million times.
It's no longer up 13 million times.
Okay. It's too much. It could accelerate down a decimal two, but please don't just, the bears are, the bulls are in charge because they're
on their back feet and bulls have made too much money. Come on. They made a lot of money. And
then you don't have a dead cat bounce ahead of you
that could take you up to 97. You don't have a vol of 60 that can accommodate a 3 or 4 percent.
60 is almost a 4 percent daily. 72 is a 4 percent daily move.
Three and a half percent expected move. This morning we were under two.
That's not interesting with gold and silver. Gold had a 10%.
Silver had a 29% up and down day. The money's leaving. There's a limited amount of capital.
There's a limited amount of brain time. People are following price, and that's the specialness of the talent in the space and on this site.
The vast majority of people are here to see what might happen, not what's deterministic based on
the past. It's one of the probabilities going forward. And when you have a price that goes
down a lot and has an anemic bounce, and then goes down and has a weaker bounce and then we're at the lows
and that's considered a better setup in what world is that a better setup why because other assets
may react favorably and you get a little less margin pressure it's not reality let's watch
some prices and not only crypto.
How much money did people leave on the table because they're stuck in Bitcoin land
writing it down when they could have made a fortune in gold and silver?
And I don't think they're going to stay up.
I'm going to be getting short the SKU,
then I'm going to short the Vega,
and then I'll get short after I made money in those.
David, I'm sorry, short the vega, and then I'll get short after I made money in those days. David, I'm sorry, man, but unfortunately, I disagree with your bearish feeling.
That's all right. You're allowed.
I know, but can I speak?
No, but you're saying like I'm upset. I'm not upset. I'm happy.
No, no, no. Yeah, I'm talking from a point of view where I actually currently right now have a 3 million long on position,
and my entry is 90K, and I still believe is bullish and I do agree with
Matt and it's still open.
What's your stop?
Yeah. Can I please ask your risk management on that?
Cause I saw your, I saw your page.
I have enough money in my margin where my liquidation is super low.
I don't want to hear super low.
I want to hear a number or we don't think you're telling the truth.
No, it's not only about telling the truth, brother.
It's just risk management.
What's your invalidation?
My stop loss is all the way at 74, the floor of Bitcoin.
I'm not saying at what point you get you positioned to get liquidated because I don't.
I'm not going to get liquidated.
Q1 might be bearish.
No, no.
You're saying if it goes to 73, you're bankrupt.
There's bullish days coming ahead of us.
You say you're bankrupt at 73 if it gets there, right?
Then you're not going to sell one.
No, my liquidation is all the way at 61.
I'm holding the position.
We are going to bounce.
You might be bearish, Q1.
You hope.
I am holding, yes.
I will be holding.
And I'm asking, what's your risk management, brother?
I'm not like, why are you putting your entire...
Why are you putting...
I don't need like hundreds of thousands of dollars on the line for...
No, no.
See, the problem, Lydis, we don't believe a word you're saying.
That's the problem.
Nobody with the kind of money you have...
Nobody believes what you're saying.
Because you told us that you had a $10 million position the other day.
Now you're telling us it's a $3 million.
No, no, you misunderstood it.
I said, I said I have 400 times 10 and now I increased it.
I literally posted it.
I haven't recorded.
I haven't recorded.
My position is 32 bitcoins long and 90.
When are you wrong on the trade? Like at what point do you accept being wrong? Like that's risk management. That's the thing. 72, Bitcoin's long, and 90.
That's the thing.
I'm not thinking it's wrong.
I'm going to keep stacking.
This is not wrong.
If you've actually been able to trade up to that amount of money,
you have to use risk management.
Prometheus, Prometheus.
Risk management if you're using your rent money.
Prometheus. Do you understand the difference?
Prometheus,
when it goes to 73,
we never have to
listen to him again
because he said
that's where he stopped out
and then when he says
I'm doing another
10 million
with that money.
He added margin
to 61,
but still,
when are you wrong
on the trade, dude?
Okay, at 61 then.
Okay, at 61.
Like what happens if
Q2 is very bullish?
Well, you're not going to participate.
You're not going to participate.
You're going to get sold out.
People are going to
hide your position, sell you out.
You'll never make any money. You'll be gone.
If you don't have risk management as your
number one goal, you're either
a fake or you're going to lose all your money. But no one who's real doesn't have risk management as your number one goal, you're either a fake or you're going to lose all your money.
But no one who's real doesn't have a calibrated risk containment.
You're saying 90 down to 74, you're eating that whole thing without adjustments.
And now you're saying, oh, but I could go to 61.
And you're only saying that now so you can make the fake story that, oh, I have plenty of money from 61 to 74.
You're a perpetual capital machine. You have an infinite amount to deploy. You're not telling
the truth, in my opinion. Yeah, I'll go first. Look, I'm incredibly bullish. I think Bitcoin
holds this range. But if Bitcoin weekly candle closes below 80K, I was wrong.
Hand up.
I was wrong.
If Bitcoin's weekly candle closes below 80K, like I'll go first.
And I know that I can be wrong plenty, which is why I never touch leverage and I never touch margin.
I don't think I've touched margin in like over a cycle.
What you're doing is nuts. I have no idea.
Dude, when are you wrong on the trade
when are you fucking wrong on the trade like please answer that question
when you're using paper money you never run out right you never run out of paper money
at least whatever i disagree with matt he's guaranteeing when bitcoin does go to a million
like i'm sure it will someday and in the someday, very high probability over a million, he'll at least have that million, right?
No matter what happens, because he's not crazy.
We can disagree, but he's not crazy to put on this massive leverage.
He's guaranteeing he could ride it out.
I think there are other ways to do it, but he's guaranteeing.
do it, but he's guaranteeing.
So don't anyone conflate me and Matt disagreeing
and Matt being respectable and smart and
understanding a lot of things.
But nothing could stop Matt from ultimately
only selling time till he gets to the promised land.
When you're on leverage, if you don't have risk management, it's not your money.
How did you get to be able to trade
million dollar positions
and not have risk management?
Like genuinely speaking.
The fact you could just tell me
that Bitcoin is not going to touch 100K again
in 2026 just blows my mind.
Well, nothing you say has any credibility.
But you can get blown out before that.
Nothing you say has any credibility.
You can get blown out before that.
Because the basic tenant of anyone on leverage is risk management because it's not your money.
You only have the little cream on the top.
You're eating your first loss.
Your first loss.
And you're going to be first loss stopped out.
And we're watching.
So you don't be able to come back here and say, oh, I found another $3 million under my mattress.
I'm back up.
You've already told us you might get out at 74 and you're completely blown out at 61.
Okay. You're trading paper money. You're not trading reality. Anyone who's real, I mean,
I disagree with that in so many ways, but he's a serious person who makes sure there's nothing
that can take his coin from him. You're massively leveraged and you're using your estimation of
where you don't get stopped. Matt can't be stopped because he doesn't have stoppable leverage.
He can ride it wherever it goes and then he'll get his move. Maybe it takes him longer,
but he automatically gets there by not having leverage. Because I'm not one of these lewds wherever it goes, and then he'll get his move. Maybe it takes him longer,
but he automatically gets there by not having leverage.
Because I'm not one of these loons who think Bitcoin's going to evaporate.
Like, well, I won't call him a loon.
Chris Whalen, he's the best bank analyst out there.
He thinks Bitcoin is going away.
I think it might go away in 50 years,
but it's not going away in 25.
David, on that note, who do you think
gets the chairman? I like Zerbos.
I like Zerbos. He's not in the running, but
I like him. He's got long hair. He's handsome.
I've also got long hair.
Well, then I vote for you.
Then I vote for you. Sorry, your
crypto people are not going to be able to get
your wisdom directly.
You'll only give them a press conference. The balls have all the juice, though.
Both directions.
I think the system's going to juice the alts.
I think the system's going to juice the banks and turn that short vol and send it over to the homeowner.
That's what I think.
David, if you were Fed Chair, you would do
QE and ZERP immediately.
No. If I was Fed Chair,
I would not cut. I would tell
the President, Mr. President, if you
let me not cut, I will get you
fixed rate mortgages at
4% within 9 months.
If you let me not cut.
That's it. If you let
me not cut, we had that same thing on 8-19,
excuse me, 10-19-23.
They didn't cut.
Mortgage rates fell.
192 basis points in 10 months and three quarters.
And then Jamie Dimons sent someone out to cry in public
and said, we need more than a 25 cut to steepen the curve.
We're losing our debt
interest margin. If they don't cut, the three and five ace that we have as policy rate will lift the
dollar and will drive the long end of the curve through the floor. And for anyone who understands
this, the policy rate going out into the future is caused by the 10-year rate movement. The 10-year is tethered by about 120 basis points
to the mid-red pack. That's six quarters of the future for the terminal low Fed Fund policy.
So if they don't cut, mortgage rates will go down 200 basis points by the election.
And that's the problem.
Small cap. Small cap, if you were FedShare share would you send this to QE and Zerp
I would
I would step down and give it to David
I appreciate that
or at least you'd call me for a little quiet chat
before you
because you're more handsome than me
and you'd give a better press conference
actually that's what I'd do
I'd put a
hidden microphone in my ear.
Just we'll do a little text.
Can you imagine David leading the FOMC press conference?
I would see him open his mouth when I shut him down.
I would pay good money to see him.
Can you imagine David as the president of the pay value of my press conference.
Matt, can you imagine David as the president of the United States sitting with Zelensky, welcoming Zelensky? I'm part Ukrainian.
I just want to see him leading the FNC.
I'm half Ukrainian.
I'm half Ukrainian, going back 124 years.
David, what do you say to the thesis?
I mean, I guess I know.
I guess your answer is that liquidity is not accelerating.
It's just rising.
But it will decelerate.
It automatically will decelerate.
Right.
Okay.
Well, just as far as the Bitcoin bull thesis and the expansion phases,
the idea that, hey, the Fed's expanding right now,
the balance sheet's expanding, we're no longer tightening, we're in QE.
First of all, do you even believe that we're in QE?
No, so this is the problem.
Money had...
But you get what I'm saying, right?
Like, historically...
That's exactly what I'm trying to explain to people.
The mortgage volatility engine,
when the curve is inverted and you QE,
oceans of liquidity.
Mid-cycle, you cut, you get a pishikaka.
Late cycle at lower rates, you destroy liquidity
because prepayment destroys liquidity
and will destroy liquidity faster now
than at any time in history
because the independent mortgage brokers
are stripping the loans off of the banks,
which take every dollar of profit
and make $10
worth of loans. They're sending that money to pensions and insurance that don't make loans.
We're going to lose money supply. The dollar will melt up, and you'll be crying like little babies.
Can I get some dollars? And Powell will give them all the dollars they want while they're sabotaging America. But what's his name? Zerbos, he'll tell
them, yeah, I'll give you money once you cut rates to zero. Steep in your own curve. Indonesia,
there's a lot of loans out to Indonesia and India and Thailand. I mean, these banks in Europe are
really screwed. Chase, JP Morgan, you know what happens when you have a
currency contagion go around the world? It's a disaster. But lowering rates doesn't always cause.
They cause when the curve's inverted. They cause when rates are high. But when rates are low,
what happens is the funding costs for a domestic carry trade, meaning you at three and
five-eighths, you go to three and three-eighths, you go to three and an eighth, three and an eighth,
you're buying a five percent mortgage-backed security, 187 basis points with no credit risk.
We're doing that all day long, and then you flatten that curve, and the next thing you know,
bonds are off into space.
And I talk about this, about Bitcoin, because Bitcoin is thin.
Bitcoin is, you know, alts three trillion for the whole thing.
I want people to learn from Gipcoin how we taught them about it signaling silver and gold are going to melt up.
But we really want the trade bonds melting up.
Bond volatility going down,
bonds flying for years. That's the real trade. And we need to make smaller, you make more money
when something goes up. It's not easy when it's going down because policy people try to stop it
from going down. The real money is going to be the bonds when they're not going to issue them anymore.
They're going to do the 50-year mortgage. So we want people to see the frame of how the information
of the price, the gamma, the Bitcoin, or the gold, the silver, the NASDAQ, it's conserved in the
volatility and it has two tails. It's not easy to know which tail is going to work. You get
confirmation. The next wave down
in Bitcoin, where you're going lower and you get a lower volatility, and you take that volatility
down to 29, below the 31, you take that thing down to 19.1, that's a 1% expected daily move.
No one's going to waste their capital on there
while the nasdaq's melting down you need massive amounts of liquidity to accelerate bitcoin versus
the nasdaq and i am all in on coin i am all in the second i see sustained acceleration
of coin versus the nasdaq i am all in with your money okay Okay? I need to see it.
And I'm seeing the opposite.
I'm seeing deceleration.
Or I'm seeing compression from its massive upperformance. Think about upperformance coming back to Earth.
Okay?
I need to see it.
I need evidence of a trade that started on September 18th, 2025.
I saw a peak in the acceleration of Bitcoin
while its volatility was coming in,
which meant there was going to be less raginess
and you were going to lose participation.
So that meant eventually you get the apogee
or the peak at Bitcoin.
You get volatility dominance.
Eventually, I'm going to train the people
to look for skewed dominance over volatility.
But you have to see a framework. What explains the motion? How many people can explain why Bitcoin
did what it did and it can't catch a bid? And if it goes up, I'll accept that it went up,
if it goes up faster. But if we accelerate, we go through the 79, we take out the 52-week low,
and then you have a bearish, engulfing annual calendar. That's years of supply.
Then you're down 50%. So if you get these levels, it's organized in my eigenbasis linear
matrix algebra framework, just price without any of that.
You went up super acceleration, that power law failed. The four-year cycle failed. We didn't
get the third year. So every one of these hopium hypochondria cultism is breaking apart. We'll
just get a new one when we go to a 52-week low. And then we'll get a new one when Bitcoin is below 25K,
which becomes not only down 80,
but that was the level where the liquidity pump
from Powell going from a neutral to a,
from a hiking to a skip to a pause.
That's a deceleration of tightness.
And then we went easy.
You had a 31.1 vol and a 25k
Bitcoin. One doubled, one went up four. And the double, the volatility rolled over. And it's a
tractor beam. More participants are selling vol. That's paper vol. It like oil and and and your your talented crew they got together and they
said we are gonna damage these paper boys we are gonna damage them so hard they will squeal like a
pig and believe me they're squealing nobody's ever seen anything like this this is worse than Worse than the Hunt Brothers. And I said for 30 years, 40 years,
that the next one, after the Hunt Brothers,
you'll just get a bunch of hedge funds together
and gang up on paper silver.
I never imagined back then the development of Bitcoin
and the distributed computer.
Now, you don't just have smart people around the world
ganging up on gold and then silver,
but they could get 500 leverage.
There is no system you could ever develop that can hedge for that tail risk
so that everybody's backing away.
Jade Street is like, they got the bid on the west side of Manhattan,
and they got the offer in New Jersey.
The Hudson River is their spread.
But we're coming back. Now it's time. I would short silver, gold skew, silver skew.
Gold had a vol of eight, a half a percent a day. Now it's 35. It's 2% a day. Today we had a 10% move in gold, the most since 2013. You know what happened
when 2013? We stopped gold. Gold didn't do anything for years. This is topping. Where's
our money going to go? Is it going to go backwards? You know, Newton's third or second law, you know,
entropy? We're not going back into Bitcoin,
we're going forward. We're going to go forward into mortgages, forward into treasuries,
forward into smothering more volatility, and we're going to bash the hell out of mama.
And NVIDIA is going to get dragged along. We love Elon, but Broadcom and NVIDIA are going to get
dropped in my work. So when I see falling volatility, which I see everywhere, everywhere,
the leverage, the baklava, the leverage that caused people to back away from vol selling,
they're winning because it was leverage.
Did you just say the baklava?
Yeah.
When you have a baklava and you slip and your hand goes down on the baklava.
What's a baklava?
Is that like a dessert?
That's a Greek dessert with flaky pastry.
You got to have it while you're eating.
And when your hand goes on it, you crush the flakiness and it's just a little, you know, powdery.
There's no body to it.
Inside is honey and dates.
It's like 75% sugar.
Yeah, it's natural. It's sugar, honey, and dates. Get is honey and dates. It's like 75% sugar. Yeah, it's natural. It's
sugar, honey, and dates.
Get the pistachio. No, it's
pistachio.
But if your hand falls onto it,
how about toast, right?
You spread,
you push your hand on toast, it's deformed.
That's why you've got to have either the
squeezable butter, or you've got to put the butter
on the toast in the oven
with the aluminum foil underneath so you don't have to clean harder.
But that's what leverage is.
It's an ossification. It's a calcification.
It's an endocrinical calcification.
It's plastic. It fails.
And it squeezes out all the juice like a fracking well.
And you don't have it anymore.
It's volatility dominance.
But then you have to figure out which is the tail.
As we get the move index, as we get the VXTLT
or bond volatility lower and lower and lower,
it's going to set up the most psychotic bull market in bonds.
Maybe since May 30th of 1984 when rates fell 6.8%.
Or since Greenspan let the yield curve invert 134 on March 24th, 2000.
But you have to learn the relationship between volatility and gamma.
It's very powerful.
Volatility is basically leveraged gamma.
An ovary has all the eggs that a woman will ever have,
and airy has the birds in it.
A tube of toothpaste has all the toothpaste in it.
Vega has all the gamma in it.
You can't not know this stuff.
You've got to learn this stuff.
It's complicated.
But it will give you a lot of early warning signs. It would have helped you avoid the drawdown in Bitcoin. We've been talking
about it. We explained before it was going to happen, what we thought. We don't guarantee
anything. We don't give you trade ideas. We give you a framework. You can see if it incorporates
in yours. But you've got to watch price. When you're in a transition, Microsoft beat and
they got smashed. Service now. Because right now people are using software as a source of funds for
compute. I'm not hiding in compute for long. I'm not hiding in gold and silver for long. For right
now they're working. And for you day traders, you leverage kings and queens,
you're having the biggest party.
70 handles.
$70 on Sandisk in one minute.
That's nice.
You know?
So you've got to watch with this opportunity.
But if you have all this liquidity,
and it will leak downhill into mortgages,
which aren't bonds, they're equity, they're short volatility, just like stock. And you start
sweeping those rates lower and you start speeding up prepayments and the model driven folks in
mortgages who don't think there's any risk of a prepayment season. They think there'll be a steeper curve, which acts like a pump jack,
holding up the long end of the curve. But when you get lower rates, you get a flattener.
For the leverage and the carry and the growth and the tax collections, that spits out all that
prepayment, leaving the regional banks and going over to the pensions and insurance.
Just think about this.
According to the accounting standards, a bank cannot buy another bank with assets trading at a discount with a book value impairment
unless you book that as a loss to your book value in the merger.
That's why they let these banks fail,
because that's the accounting.
It's so stupid.
Okay.
Well, when you have lower rates,
and the mortgages go higher and higher in price,
and the impairment goes lower and lower,
even if they don't change the regulation,
you're going to have more and more and more of these banks merge. We'll go from 4,000 to one. They'll cut out the cost. They'll do the AI.
But it's not going to be loan growth in the aggregate because they're losing the income
from the mortgages that United and Rocket are now the number one and number two mortgage.
Rocket, what was 66 billion? Now it's high fifties. It's double what you need to get in the S&P 500.
It's not an advocacy for Rocket, but if mortgage rates are going down,
the homeowner has more disposable income.
You can't get a recession.
You can't get a destruction of liquidity or money, the economy.
So you don't have a failure, and the Fed gets the opportunity to cut rates to zero
and steepen the curve.
No, no, you get a flattener
and that destroys liquidity to some degree
and that's toxic for Bitcoin,
which needs accelerating.
It doesn't need liquidity.
It needs accelerated liquidity.
It can't just handle rising liquidity normal.
You need accelerating
either velocity or just printing and that's what this dark energy is it's pushing bitcoin lower
faster the going up of the s&p of the nasdaq is not helping it this is novel and why is because it went up 8.3 trillion,
I mean, 83 million times.
It's just catching down.
But it's so exciting to be able to see
the way it works in price for a small tail item,
the crypto space, it's only a 4.28,
which is now a 2.86 trillion space.
It's not the 50 trillion of sovereigns
and the 70 trillion of equities,
67 trillion of equities, whatever,
125 trillion.
It's only three. So we can learn from Bitcoin about the
process of the underlying price, its volatility, its skew, and its kurtosis. It has all the
information, if you want to listen, instead of just themes and theoretical. Those are important.
instead of just themes and theoretical. Those are important. Sentiment, psychology, positioning.
But if they're relevant and you're good at it and you're not getting the price that your frame says,
then there's another force out there. And you better find out what that force is before your
enemies get your money. Now, it doesn't apply to that because he doesn't have leverage. He can ride every storm.
But anyone with leverage, anyone with positional non-control who has liability, you've got to learn.
Hey, Dave. Yes.
I probably got like 10 to 15 minutes before I got around.
I'm done, everyone.
Thank you for the time.
You're wonderful.
But you've got... No problem, man.
My last point is you've got to listen to the Wabi.
If he tells you, look in this direction
and you don't, you're throwing away
money, you could donate a tithe to charity.
Okay?
I'm just another person.
No, you're not. You're someone with extra
talents and skills from experience.
And when you say at least give three minutes of analysis to see if you want to do more, don't just say it's not my thing.
You said it's not your thing and look how much Sandisk went up since the first time that symbol came off his lips.
Do not ignore people who know more than you.
You're on the spaces to learn.
Don't cast off the jewels.
You like that?
That was pretty good, man.
That was good.
I mean, I've said this for a while.
I think I would say since Trump became president,
maybe not like a year and a half ago, where if you're in crypto, there's opportunities in the equity markets that could surprise you.
Think over the last few years, the most mentioned ticker from these spaces has been hood.
Galaxy was it for a minute during the summer
of last year coin as well but i mentioned hood a lot more and then more recently intel
which has done well and uh and sandisk amd is another one too and And yeah, I mean, the equity markets are the most liquid markets for a reason.
And at some point, crypto will be like that.
But it's probably going to take like five to ten years.
At least that's my opinion.
And yeah, I'm not even sure when like all season like 2021 happens.
But QE and Zerp only happen after a huge market crash, not when markets are elevated.
And like you said, right, expansion, rapid acceleration of liquidity is usually one crypto does well, right?
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
That's its oxygen.
That's its oxygen.
But we've had that since Japan had a 75 to the dollar yen on its way to 161.
And I think the last time we saw that was from October of 2024 till early January of 2025.
What happened then, friend?
A rate cut?
A rate cut?
Another rate cut?
Another rate cut? And then the end of QT? And rate cut? A rate cut? Another rate cut? Another rate cut?
And then the end of QT? And then Powell? And then Trump?
That's a nice little
rollover the shorts. But what's
happened since then? Volatility has imploded.
It now only has a
2% expected daily move.
On its way to one.
It's going to be less volatile than gold soon.
And I'm not talking gold today. I'm talking
gold when it's boring.
I'll pass it over to some of the new speakers,
but we'll give it
like two minutes per new speaker.
I think
Michael Oates. Michael Oates, what's up, man?
Are you related to
Hall?
No. I get that question often.
It was two years and sorry.
Sorry.
No, it's all good.
No, a few things I was going to tap on.
Yeah, the point you mentioned about leverage, you got to have a plan.
I mean, there's nothing wrong with leverage.
Anyone that has a mortgage on their house, technically, you're leveraged to some extent.
But you have to understand the numbers behind it right and so most of these platforms you have like account margin ratio which like the percentage of
like equity and liquidity that you're utilizing um over your tire balance and it's actually pretty
uh shocking that so many people don't even know what that percentage is when they're trading i
mean they'd be running that around like 70 80% when they should be closer to one to 5% max to deal with volatility. And when people are trading
things outside of Bitcoin, that's even additional leverage. I mean, we're trading things on top of
like Solana or ETH. You're technically in a leverage position, but yeah, leverage is interesting.
And I think a lot of people don't really understand that stuff.
I traded Forex a lot back in the day,
and I had some hard lessons that I learned
in regards to like account margin ratio
and how fundamental events can come out of nowhere
and completely knock you out.
So technical is one thing, but fundamental is another thing.
But overall, you got to have risk.
You got to know your risk tolerance and know things to happen out of nowhere so but yeah I just want
to point that out um for anyone that's even new in the room because I know we've been talking about
leverage a little bit the count margin ratio is very important and in general try to keep it around
one to two if you know what that means we really should stop trading and figure out what that means
in my opinion can I make one comment? Everything you said was right, except for one thing.
When you're living in a house and you have that leverage that you spoke of,
it's just not as much leverage as you think, because that's your rent.
So if you would subtract rent, owner's equivalent rent, from your mortgage,
you really only leveraged actually 20%, not 80, because that 60 is what
you would have paid for rent. So although mathematically it's reported, but you don't
get to live in a house for free. So everything else you said is true. I just want to say people
shouldn't think, oh, I could go 80, you know, four to one leverage on my house. Why can't I go four
to one in the market? Because you're not really four to one, right? Right. Because most of your payment is your oldest equivalent rent.
So in a sense, you're just capitalizing your rent
and you're servicing that.
And then the rest of it-
I guess I was tapping on more like 2008.
I had friends that fucked up royally
because what they were doing,
there wasn't one house.
It was apartments, houses, condos.
You see, it's not their oldest equivalent
that they was going to pay.
They were taking the liability for someone else's job.
And that's one thing why I'm so against Home Depot,
even though as an investment I love it, when it's going up.
I like going into Home Depot just to observe how great America is.
No, but they destroy mom-and-pop stores
because they're more price competitive from their volume buying.
And regular mom and pop hardware stores will not pay themselves a salary
and keep the people employed and keep the local community stabilized.
Home Depot will shut down 500 locations in five seconds, no matter the consequence.
Mario, what's up, bro?
Give me a little.
What's up, bro? What's up bro What's up bro
We got the
What's up bro
We don't catch a break man
2022
We had FTX and now we have gold
Isn't it crazy man how FTX
Went down because of a tweet
Dude if CZ just did not
Tweet that day.
Right.
Man.
And Wabi, the thing is, you know, I am around this space and other places.
I'm starting to hear people like crypto going to zero.
Are we coming back?
You're coming off, man. At least fromBX, you know?
Is he rugging?
I'm a rugging one.
I think he's rugging.
Yeah, you're rugging.
You hear me now?
Hello?
Yeah, I can hear you.
Yeah, I just got a quick question, man, because I heard that kid,
he went with a huge size into a leverage play.
Why, if you have a size like that, why don't you DCA into that leverage?
It's not a real position because if you can't explain your risk management
and you're trading a million dollars in size, it's not a real size.
You can do it all day long with paper money, right?
Because you could start fresh.
But that would be the correct,
like if you have size,
you want to DCA into that leverage, right?
You have to, and you have to DCA out.
Or you fail.
Because anything can happen.
But if you're dealing with paper money
and you're telling stories,
you get to trick people into thinking that's what you do.
And this is an educational space.
So thanks for clearing it up.
This app just like freaked out on me, man.
But in case of Space Rugs,
guys, if you guys have been enjoying the space
over the last three hours, give us a follow.
My name's Wabi.
I'm the host of Market Talk.
I go live here at 3.30 p.m. ESC.
If you guys have been enjoying all the rambles and discussions,
price action, narratives, news, all that stuff,
give the Because Bitcoin account a follow.
Once again, I go live here throughout the week at 3.30 p.m. ESC,
usually with Prometheus and a few of our other. Oh Is everyone rugging?
Yeah, I think Bobby.
No, no, you guys are good now.
You guys are good.
Oh, man.
Prometheus, can you close us off, man?
This thing is horrible.
It keeps shutting out, man.
Can you close us off, and i'll just like end the
space i'm so sorry guys for the people that are up here just come into tomorrow's room uh i'll go
live at 3 30 p.m est as always prometheus take us off give the product shills and and uh all that
stuff programming you know what to do man yeah yeah i mean wabi touched on most of it we appreciate you guys dropping in here for market talk we're here every single day uh around
when do we start now 4 30 p.m eastern time we also have 3 30 3 30 p.m eastern
3 30 p.m eastern time it's a little bit different with our
schedule change um not used to it anymore anyways we also
have bb terminal we We have the BB Discord.
We're also coming out with more products that are hopefully going to provide you guys with
awesome insight into the markets and help you guys propel your guys' trading.
If you guys are curious about anything we do over here at BB, go ahead and click on
the icon up at the top left that says Because Bitcoin. In the bio, it will have links directly to all those different products that we do provide.
Thank you to the speakers, as always, for coming up.
If you guys could please follow them, that would be much appreciated.
And with that being said, an awesome space, guys.
Thank you for being here.
Exactly.
Guys, follow all the speakers follow
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our bio for all premium packages with our terminal or discord feel free to send us a dm if you have
any questions guys well with that being said we'll see you all tomorrow at the same time at 3 30 p.m
est thank you guys thank you to all the speakers. Thank you to the audience.
Shout out to all our new followers.
Feel free to tell a friend about us here at BB.
And we'll see you later.
Take care, guys.
Have a good rest of your day.
Peace.
