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Market Talk- BTC hits 85k!? More pain ahead!? Bull market over!?
Recorded: Dec. 16, 2025 Duration: 1:11:06Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts analyzed the current market landscape, highlighting trends of declining performance in crypto equities and the impact of low trading volumes. The conversation emphasized the need for strategic positioning as liquidity conditions tighten, with a focus on identifying outperformers amidst a challenging environment.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.次回予告ん
ん and
yeah
yeah
yeah
yeah Oh Oh uh
Oh Thank you. Yeah. Oh I'm not sure. They can just make me broken from the grave With my contract, I'll send them forever to die
In the channel, to be here
Me is the free
I can't run away
I feel the shame of death The Oh is
and Ohています
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おはじい I'm going to be back and you guys are gonna have to excuse me for uh yesterday um
i was down and out and uh i actually tried to get prometheus to uh host a market talk for you guys
yesterday again you're gonna have to excuse my voice i'm sure you guys heard me the last two
shows that i did my uh voice was just completely under the weather. And I actually ended up
having to go to emergency care. And, you know, miracles do happen, man. Miracles do happen. I'm
just glad to be here back with you all. And if I don't talk much, it's for a reason. I'm going to
actually let the guys do most of the talking talking today but i mean i guess with uh with
uh with the way the last few days have gone post fomc i think it's a really telling sign um
definitely some weakness at least in crypto compared to the equity markets i just took just
more of a glance on the uh markets today m MSTR has actually made new lows over the last two trading sessions.
I think MSTR is actually back near the levels that I was trading at back in the spring of last year.
And that would equate to BTC hitting like $74,000, $75,000.
But I see Louis also down here in the audience.
I'm going to send him an invite to speak.
And for whatever reason, like spaces just are not in the algorithm today.
I took a look at Solana hosting a space and there's barely like 100 people in there.
there's barely like 100 people in there
also some other
content creators that go
live around this time literally have like
zero views and they go
live on X
streams which is like the video
portion of Spaces
I think there's something actually wrong
with Spaces again today
I'm seriously not sure
what's been going on over the
last like two weeks or so but uh we're gonna go ahead and cook for you guys but if you guys can
go ahead and uh show some love to the stream the intro for me at least today is gonna be a bit uh
on the short end um at least until like at least until like i'm at 100%. I would like to cook for you all.
It's probably going to be tomorrow where I'll give the usual intro and all that stuff.
And we'll have some of our usual guys probably in here after Christmas.
A lot of the guys that are usually up here, like Matt, some of the other guys that you guys have seen on the show are actually on vacation.
And, you know, I'm just glad that I'm here alive.
And it's weird, man.
Like, you feel like Superman one day, and then over the course of 48 hours, it's like, it can get really dark, honestly.
And with Christmas being around the corner man I'm just
grateful to be here with you guys today and this year has honestly been such a wild ride
in and out of markets so I got Louie up here got Prometheus got Evan up here but guys if you guys
can go ahead and show some love to the stream just uh click the spaces tab and once you guys do
that you right above our profile pictures you'll see that nice link that says x.com slash i slash
spaces just hit the like button hit the repost button uh helps bring the the algorithm more to
our favor brings a show more to viewers and all that good stuff helps please our tech overlords and uh as i said
something has definitely been funky with spaces over the last like week and a half but we're still
going to go ahead and cook and um just make do with what we've got so i'm not sure who wants to
go first maybe prometheus if you want to like kind of take over the intro, man, if you can help me out with that.
We got MSTR showing some insane weakness.
On-chain got absolutely decimated over the weekend.
And dude, it really reminds me, if you remember back in like September of 2023,
I think like a week or two after Bitcoin retested 24K,
nearly everything that was trending on-chain just got absolutely obliterated, man.
So if you want to cook first, bro, you can go ahead, brother.
Yeah, what's going on, guys? Glad to be back here with you.
Sorry about yesterday. There's just a little bit of miscommunication with the team.
We had some things going on, unfortunately. But man, oh man, what a kind of vicious whipsaw price action we've seen the past two days.
Unemployment numbers came out today. Another uptick in unemployment. We're now up to 4.6%.
We're seeing now significant month over month trend change to the upside. And typically, historically, if you look back, interestingly
enough, once you do see unemployment start to really trend higher, it kind of does,
I don't want to say spell doom, right? Because I don't want to be that bearish right now,
but it more so spells the fact that we're going to start seeing meaningful trend change to the upside
and an actual acceleration in unemployment rather than a cool down.
We saw the BOJ, as everybody knows, probably at this point, maybe you don't know, BOJ is
raising rates.
So the Japan carry trade has been kind of top of mind for a lot of people.
carry trade has been kind of top of mind for a lot of people. And the BOJ is now in a rate hiking
cycle and the Fed is in a rate cutting cycle. So that, if you guys don't know the dynamic of that,
as of right now, that kind of leads to more of a liquidity crunch within the markets, right? As
the dollar depreciates versus the yen and the yen carry trade, they usually stem some
form of systematic unwind in that overall trade that is a large portion or that does
make up a large portion of liquidity flows within this market, allows people cheap cost
of capital.
What else do we have going on here?
We are going into the end of the year.
If you guys don't know, the end of the year if you guys don't know
the end of the year at least the last two weeks historically is one of the lowest volatility or
not volatility but one of the lowest volume periods within the calendar year and that's
pretty important for crypto if you have looked back historically at least over the past two years
when we do enter into low volume regimes and periods within the
market. Generally, what that does spell is some form of trend continuation, right? It's either,
you know, if we're entering into that or if we're in a bullish trend entering into that period,
typically what ensues is continuation of that bullish trend. If we're in a bearish trend, typically what ensues is a continuation of that bearish trend.
So kind of should see some more from at least from a historical perspective,
same old, same old from what we've seen in regards to low volume periods within the market.
We are seeing tremendous, tremendous weakness in a lot of the crypto equity names
and a lot of the crypto beta stocks. If we looked at miners yesterday, I mean, miners yesterday were
down well over double digits. Some of the stronger names even down 15%. You're starting to see a
little bit of an unwind in the AI trade, it seems,
alongside AMD showing a lot of relative weakness.
We're seeing the Qs.
We're seeing more tech-heavy indices show a divergence between them
and the Dow Jones, interestingly enough.
So we're starting to see industrials, healthcare, consumer staples show relative strength versus tech, which is something we have really not seen since 2022.
And it's catching a lot of people off guard because as you guys know, especially most people on this platform, at least, nobody's talking about any of those names in the Dow, right?
Nobody's talking about any of those names in the Dow, right?
Nobody's talking about UnitedHealthcare.
Nobody's talking about, you know, a lot of the other names like the Home Depots, the Lowe's, you know, names along that kind of line.
And like I said, the divergence is continuing to ensue.
Again, the Russell down, down pretty significantly at one point today with the es uh remaining relatively flat oil
showing showing weakness we'll see if what that leads to oil has really been pretty range bound
for the past you know two and a half ish years so we'll see if that kind of regime continues
and what that spells for the broader markets but ultimately guys we are going into the end of the year, like I said.
And this should be a time period where people enjoy the time that they have with the loved ones around them.
Or at least show yourself some love and appreciate yourself.
And appreciate yourself.
Show yourself some gratitude.
Because at the end of the day, you are loved, you are cherished, and you are important.
So I just want to let that be known for everybody on here. because at the end of the day, you are love, you are cherish, and you are important.
So I just want to let that be known for everybody on here.
But the trade as of right now, in my opinion, is to the downside.
I spelled out last week and the past couple of weeks when Wabi came on here and he asked me, Prometheus, give me your most bullish scenario.
And I literally couldn't even mutter.
I literally couldn't even mutter anything bullish. It was it was literally I just I can't I can't come to it. You know, I can't I could I literally couldn't even get get a yearly open on BTC. We did see a swing fail the yearly open on ETH in confluence with the divergence between ETH and BTC, interestingly enough, and saw a localized outperformance between ETH and Bitcoin.
coin, you know, that's not necessarily what you want to see. And the altcoin market is kind of
falling apart and crumbling. And unfortunately, that is just kind of the nature of what we're
seeing here, especially when you see liquidity conditions falter and the liquidity starts to
thin in the broader markets. So do we expect continuation or do we expect some form of regime
shift? It's, you know, that's the big question right now.
And I think a lot of people, as we like to say, Wabi are getting a little bit ahead of their skis, a little bit in front of their skis right now.
And I would like to see a significant low get put in before I even, you know, start talking about a high time frame bottoming formation getting put in.
What will I look to bid initially? The first things i'll be looking to bid are majors i'll be looking to
probably be buying bitcoin maybe some solana maybe some ethereum maybe some hype uh xrp uh
what else is there i know a lot of people are really bullish on aster i just have a really hard
time uh being bullish on Aster again after
kind of what happened in regards to Binance and the reason why we've seen such a large scale
underperformance or outperformance to the downside from crypto relative to equities. So not too
bullish on Aster personally, but I was looking at Hyperliquid today and I was looking at actually entering into some stock positions on Hyperliquid, which I do find very, very fascinating, very interesting.
Right. Just kind of sticking on, you know, that platform for everything, you know, trading, perpetual trading related. So I love what I'm seeing over there, but the high time frame chart on Hyperliquid does look distributive and that has been a risk on signal for the broader crypto ecosystem as a whole.
12 months showing relative weakness. What is that kind of, you know, what does that signal for the
rest of the altcoin market or the rest of, you know, even the stronger alt that is, is probably
again, continuation to the downside. What else am I saying? What else? SpaceX guys looking to
launch their IPO at 1.5 trillion craziness, absolute craziness. I know that a lot of people are bullish on Anduril as well. So that
is a defense stock. They produce weapons and military systems and all that. But Elon did
announce that if you are a Tesla shareholder, I believe you do get early access to the SpaceX IPO,
shareholder, I believe, you do get early access to the SpaceX IPO, interestingly enough. So
we did see a little bit of pop out of Tesla the other day. I will tell you what, I will not be
one of those buying the IPO at 1.5 trillion. I still think that that company has, you know,
they still have to prove themselves in regards to, you know revenues, kind of along those lines. But in the
long run, I have no doubt that they'll be one of the market leaders, especially as we start to
innovate or as innovation goes kind of out onto the new frontier being space over the next 10 to
50 years as that sector starts to get privatized um but i i do like that it's just
as of right now i'm not really looking to you know get a position um at spacex have 1.5 trail
i'll let that thing you know pull back a little bit before i do enter into position but i'll quit
rambling and yapping here we got evan up here We got Louie up here trying to make up here for Wabi. Wabi's such a great host and does a great job, you know, navigating the speakers and the
spaces and really creating an environment for everybody here that's hopefully educational and
hopefully entertaining at the same time. As we have swapped over to our spaces to an earlier time,
some of our usual speakers unfortunately aren't able to make those times, but we will make the most of it for you guys as always.
But with that being said, Evan, would love to get your thoughts.
I know we have Louie up here as well.
Would love to get your thoughts.
What are you seeing?
Do you have any trades you're interested in?
And just an overall market outlook.
Yeah, what's up, man?
Always great to talk to you guys. Wish you the best of luck for Wabi and everything, you know. Obviously a really
apathetic time. Yeah. That's the first thing I'll say. I think, you know, a lot of people are in the
ballpark that, you know, the bull runs over and including myself, you know, at least to a certain
extent, unless we could, you know, somehow break above, you know, 115K within the next month or
something like that, but it doesn't look too likely. You know, somehow break above, you know, 115K within the next month or something like that.
But it doesn't look too likely.
You know, kind of going off what you were saying, Prometheus, I mean, it does look kind of bearish, especially like on the two day for Bitcoin.
Three days, well, looks really bearish.
I might kind of guess here is it may be kind of quiet, boring for like the next few weeks.
You may come down to, let's say, 80K again, get a nice bounce there.
And then potentially, you know, I think you're going to have a green month at some point here.
And my original case was potentially this month, December. Now, I think every day that goes past
and we just see more apathy and, you know, it not happening, that makes it more likely that January
is kind of our bullish month here. That could be where we get some excitement into the next
FOMC meeting.
I believe at the end of January,
which most likely January 28th,
which most likely will be a pause, excuse me.
And the last time,
if you look at what happened in January of this year, 2025,
you rallied kind of into that FOMC meeting
and then you kind of, you know, reality hit
and you kind of came down.
So I would kind of guess the same thing may happen.
And you might have to wait until they, um, cut again, um, for, you know, to really,
you know, kind of get your bear market bottom and all that most likely that will, I mean,
betting odds would say April, but that far out, it's so hard to say that could be may,
you know, that may not be may or June that may not be until the next, um, fed share is, uh,
is put in, you know,'s term ends May 15th.
So that's the things we got to keep in mind here.
I think you mentioned AI.
I think AI is very overheated.
Especially things like Palantir that are up like 20 something X
over the last few years.
I mean, obviously you got to be careful with it.
You got to use risk management,
but like some put options on that.
Like I think there's a decent shot
in the next six months, like you get you'll get something there um having that come down i mean trying to shorten
a video trying to short like you know triple q's that's where it gets dicier because like those
things are more like safer and gradually going up rather than like something like palantir that's
just went crazy um when you look at micro strategy yeah i mean i think that if i had a, I think we'll come down to like one 30 and then probably bounce back up to like,
I don't know, maybe even one 50, 200 or something or one 75, 200, let's say I'm just ballparking
here, but enough to get some people excited in January, you know, and kind of that area,
nothing's going to go straight down, but short term does look, I mean, unless we could,
yeah, I mean, unless we could really hold like one 60 here, short termterm does look i mean unless we could yeah i mean unless we could really hold like 160
here short-term does not look um does not look the best um ethereum is probably the most i mean
you mentioned all coins kind of bleeding out and i think we're seeing that the um unfortunately for
a lot of us i mean including myself i'm not gonna lie i mean we're seeing some all coins that we
kind of hoped would have you know saw some light by now that really haven't. And, you know, it does look, if you look at something like Avalanche or something like Polygon,
like the hope is very low. I mean, something like Apecoin kind of looks like it went to zero.
You look at Mutant API Club, Bored API Club. I haven't looked at that too closely, but I mean,
that's kind of where it's like that, you know, that's kind of dead at this point, unfortunately.
Maybe I'm wrong, but we're kind of getting to zero in some of these.
So it's kind of like a cleansing of the market to a certain extent.
Now, if we look at history, Fed ended QT officially December 1st.
I think if you look back at 2019,
alt's bled against Bitcoin for about a month after they ended QT the last time.
So that would aim for kind of a bullish January.
And I think that anything that is going to survive in terms of an altcoin, anything that's going to do very well over the next like two, three, four years, needs to kind of outperform Bitcoin from like January to, let's say, you know, May of next year.
And I think that, you know, anything that can, if you get in like middle to late later next year, that would be a good place.
like middle to late later next year, that would be a good place. Definitely. I think if you're
Definitely.
going to mess with all coins right now or crypto in general, ETH would probably, as long as ETH
can generally continue to outperform Bitcoin, which like I mentioned, it can come down, you
know, against Bitcoin, maybe over the next two or three weeks. But, you know, there's a lot of
momentum there. And if you think that ETH is still going to be a significant player in, you know,
two, three, four years, this may be one of the places. I mean, I would wait a few months personally, because I think we
are most likely going into a bear market. You know, if ETH can break a bubble, let's say 3,700,
3,800, then I would probably change that case. But for now, most likely we'll come down. But
again, you know, ETH does look pretty attractive against Bitcoin right now. So that would be the altcoin. If I had to mess with the altcoin, that would be the one I
would mess with at the moment. That's what I look at in the market in general. I would kind of get,
I mean, the thing too is like the only thing really in a true bull run, I would say right
now is probably gold and silver. Those have been, you know, going kind of nuts. I mean,
if you look at like silver versus triple Q on the macro, like the three week, the monthly, like
big changes that you haven't seen since, I mean, we're at evaluations
that were in March of 2001 on that evaluation. So, you know, that could be a big rally upward,
you know, I think for, for people who aren't too, and I'm sure a lot of people listening,
they're not too into metals. They're not too, too much of how to approach that. I mean,
the majority of your position that probably should be gold and then maybe 20,
30% silver is kind of how I do it.
If you look at gold versus triple Q, I mean, big kind of jumps that we've seen since February
of 24.
You bottomed out against the triple Q in gold since November of 21.
So theoretically, I mean, you wouldn't have gotten any compound interest, but if you bought
gold instead of the NASDAQ at the end of 2021, you would be better off right now.
You would have outperformed the NASDAQ by 50%, believe it or not.
So gold is a volatile puppy.
And I do think that, you know, there's going to be some bad years.
I think gold probably at some point this year, when everything else probably comes down to
in the first half of, or next year, excuse me, the first half of or next year excuse me the first half of 2026 20 correction something of that nature but you know i think right now it's
kind of you know we got to realize we got to like i don't want to say the name but there's certain
people peter shift that have kind of like like bitcoin and gold people used to be boys and there
used to be like places where you know we were kind of friends now we have to hate each other like it
shouldn't be like that you know i think it's kind of foolish not to have any position in gold or silver, especially
since a lot of people that invest in crypto, like myself, you know, we like to chase,
chase things. And you look at, there's only really three assets, correct me if I'm wrong,
but I think there's only three assets that have like come up in the last hundred years,
have trended up with time in the last hundred years. It's gold, it's like S&P 500, and it's
real estate. So I think it's kind of foolish not to
have any position um in gold especially in this potential environment i do think gold has got a
good shot of outperforming bitcoin in 2026 for the first half of it at least um outperforming
the s p 500 probably the nasdaq as well i mean you could be on a big gold rally for the next you know
five to ten years i've been talking to a lot of boomers too. And surprisingly, they don't have gold. Like they're more bullish on Bitcoin. I mean,
it's just the people I'm talking to, but you know, it's interesting. Not nobody, everyone's
fading the gold, gold run. So, you know, that's some, if some, if you want to chase something
that's in a bull run, last thing I'll say really quick, cause I was just, you know, if you want to
chase silver right now, I mean, you probably can get up to $73 or at 63 right now.
I mean, it does not look, there's no major topping signs yet.
My guess is that it will come down with everything after that FOMC meeting, probably in January.
That's where I would kind of look at, but yeah, if you're trying to chase something,
I mean, that's what I would look at.
Yeah.
Interestingly enough, I love that you touched on the fact that the whole gold bitcoin you know
like we have to be you know there's like this hostility and it feels like if you're in one
trade you have to be against the other trade and that just shouldn't like you said it shouldn't
be the case like paul tudor jones for, one of the most, you know, one of the legendary traders over the last, you know, 100 years, right? He is,
he's an older gentleman and he's, you know, he's in, I gotta be in his seventies now,
mid seventies at least. And he talks, he thinks commodities are extremely undervalued and you
should hold Bitcoin because of the currency debasement, right? It's not, it's more about portfolio diversification than anything. And it shouldn't be like, I have
to hold one versus the other. And if you're holding one, then you're wrong for holding the
other. That's simply not, that simply should not be the case. And yeah, I mean, silver, like you
said, is just right. We're, we're broken out. We're in blue skies. We're
making new all the time. High after new all the time. High, we finally, you know, we're seeming
like maybe we could be seeing a little bit of, uh, you know, price exhaustion, you know, just,
just even locally here. We'll see if it, we'll see if it actually concludes to anything meaningful.
Uh, but that's been a monster trade, you know, I mean, that's been a huge, huge, huge trade this year.
If we look at silver, how much are we up on?
I mean, silver's up 100% year to date, right?
It's significant, especially for a commodity for 12 months to be doing something, especially
something that size, regards to how large that asset class is,
is pretty tremendous. So, I mean, hats off to anybody who made that silver trade, because
if you would have asked me, you know, going into 25, what would you expect for silver and
commodities as a whole? I mean, silver looked good, but was, you know, I got into my head,
I probably would have said you maybe get like 15% out of it.
But 100% move this year has been pretty substantial and pretty significant.
I know a lot of people are talking to here locally about the Japan carry trade. trade and I think too what we're seeing right now is China and specifically
leaving
the treasury
United
States bonds and are
flooding over into the commodity
sector and you
could see a big big big fight
for commodities
I'm not thinking
I would never throw something I would never throw something for commodities. I'm not thinking about stocks. I don't know what it is.
I remember
stocks
don't go up.
Stocks are a safe asset.
You know,
crypto sucks.
Stocks are great.
Very safe.
Very chill.
Very complacent.
And very safe.
Very chill.
Very complacent. in my stops.
No, I'm kidding, guys. What's going on?
Great, great points, guys. Great points.
Tuesday, like you said, or last day or two, a bit of a whipsaw price action
in the markets, right? Seeing continued weakness in crypto, really pretty much hammering any bounces or squeezes to the upside in the crypto market and to the downside, you know, hammering those, whether it's shorts or selling into those pumps has been a great strategy because we are in a high timeframe downtrend.
Bitcoin continuing to fail to hold and get back above $93,000, $94K,
which is the level I've been talking about for the last couple of weeks at minimum here,
where if Bitcoin can't get back above 93, 94K,
where if Bitcoin can't get back above $93,000, $94K,
I really don't see much hope for one,
even if it's just a squeeze to the upside
and to see some sustained rallies out of altcoins
or just a bottom in general, right?
Because I know there is a lot of people
trying to call bottom where, you know, I get it, right?
Bitcoin's down 36%.
Altcoins have been getting absolutely hammered.
So technically and more of a logically thought process would be,
yeah, we've got to be bottomed here,
at least for, you know, a meaner version rally.
But, you know, every time Bitcoin tries to get back above 93, 94K
in the last week or two, it's been getting stuffed.
And now we're starting to see Bitcoin kind of retrace and start to run through all of these stack lows we've made on the way up,
trying to create this faulty bottom here.
So just monitoring that, you know, I'm in some crypto shorts here.
Not much, right?
I don't think, you know, there are some opportunities out there to the downside in crypto.
There are some altcoins that have held up better than others that have a little more downside.
Some altcoins could be very much bottoms or close to those bottoms.
But really just waiting for resolution, right?
Whether that's another plunge to the downside for Bitcoin and ETH, Bitcoin I'd be eyeing that high 60s, low 70k area.
We have tons and tons of market structure there.
I think there are much higher probabilities of us bottoming in that area versus where we are now.
So, you know, looking for that, if and when we get that, I will be watching very closely for
any signs of like lower timeframe reversals, and looking to put money to work back into the
altcoin market, or even just playing Bitcoin needs to start, right. As far as equities are concerned,
this has been something I've been pounding the table on for the last month, wherein I'm expecting a catch-up trade
to the downside for equities. We've seen Bitcoin drop 36% in the last two months. We've seen
Ethereum drop substantially. We've seen altcoins get crushed. All the while, the equity markets
have been having their own little party, which is great and fine? But when you actually look into the data,
a data point and statistic that I found,
backtesting and looking back over the last five years of price action data
is that when Bitcoin,
anytime Bitcoin has a 20 plus percent
move to the downside,
the S&P specifically does lag by a month or two, which is what we're seeing
right now, but eventually does have its own catch-up trade and move to the downside just
around 10% or more, right? So we've seen Bitcoin have its downside. We've seen Bitcoin down 36%
in the last two months, right? Starting just around, you know, getting close to
two months ago now. All the while, yes, equities have slowed, right? You can definitely see in the
chart, looking at a naked chart of the S&P, you can see the trend slowly starting to round out
and lose steam here. I'm waiting for that to move to the downside, right? And we're starting to see
the cracks kind of show in the equity markets. I've been
saying this for the last couple of weeks, but equities have still been chugging along. I mean,
at least locally here on the S&P making slightly fresher local highs. And actually, fun fact,
if you watch the after hours on Thursday last week, the S&P did actually sweep its all time
high in after hours and got rejected hard.
And that's something that most people I think haven't noticed is that the S&P did sweep its
all time high.
It's been kind of sliding.
So starting to see a little bit of more evidence of that weakness, a potential down move in
the equity markets.
There's nothing confirmed yet, right?
There's nothing confirmed yet.
But we are starting to see more signs
of that possibly occurring here.
You know, you got the S&P trading into a key level today
where it kind of needs to hold.
Pretty much a big must hold level for the S&P
is like 6, 750, right?
If the S&P right now, we've got a little bounce and reaction off that level, uh, midway
through the trading day, it looks like equities kind of gave a decent little bounce into the
close.
Um, so it's, you know, it's support until proven otherwise as always, but you know But if you see the S&P starting to lose 6,750 and failing to get back above that level,
the S&P, the NASDAQ, these top performing stocks are looking vulnerable for potential downside
if they can't save it, right? If they can't save it like they've been doing for the last three years
where equity investors are pretty complacent and used to
every time they're getting a dip or a couple of down days,
ripping back to the upside, making fresh highs, nothing matters.
Market only goes up, stocks are safe.
That's kind of the sentiment out there, right?
So when you have a sentiment like that,
you're seeing obvious weaknesses uh or
slow down or stall in the charts but it seems as if there's you know many equity traders and
investors aren't really phased by it just yet right so that that that shows signs of complacency
um and with all the data i kind of just spewed out of you guys uh is a recipe for a possible shock to the market, to the downside
in equities that many won't expect, to be honest, and won't realize what's happening until the
markets are sliding significantly. So we'll see how it plays. So again, seeing some evidence of
that over the last two trading days and just kind of sitting on my hands. I am short a basket of stocks.
I don't want to give out too much information.
If you want to know what those stocks are, check out the link in the bio of my
description or any of the analysts or the official BB page and get in the discord.
You know, we're giving those calls and plays every day in there.
We actually have a special promo code, Santa, S-A-N-T-A, that's going to get you 50% off
your first month of Discord or BB Terminal.
But I know Evan and Prometheus did mention Palantir.
It's something I'm eyeing.
Obviously, a super, super strong stock.
But again, a lot of these leading stocks, your Apples, your NVIDIAs, your Palantirs,
they look a little distributive to me.
And there's, again, nothing confirmed yet.
But if we do get this shock to the market and everyone's just used to these names,
just always remaining strong and putting in great numbers week in and week out,
I am seeing some vulnerabilities and short potential where your downside risk is much
higher than your upside risk. To me, if you're buying stocks like the names i just
mentioned at these levels your risk reward is not very high right is not very high you know these
these have been in a three-year-long bull run right wherein if you're looking for downside
or just selling said positions you know the downside risk where you know you're wrong pretty
quickly if it goes higher but if it does does drop, your risk reward is highly favorable in your favor.
So that's kind of how I'm playing these markets right now.
Everything's kind of pretty much highly reliant on how equities trade and react heading into the end of the year.
getting into the end of the year, starting to see some evidence and cracks in the market,
seeing some slowdowns, seeing some more red days than what we have been seeing the last
couple of weeks and positioning accordingly.
Yeah, no, I mean, love it.
Can you guys, can you hear me by the way, Louis?
We're good?
Just want to make sure spaces are good.
Okay.
You never know, man, these past two
weeks, the spaces have just been freaking wonky all over the place with people's connection,
connectivity and all that. But anyways, yeah, you made some great points. And one of the most,
you know, one of the salient points you made that I think holds so true to where we're currently at in the market is this idea that on any 5% dip you get within the market, you just immediately buy it within equities. I mean, we've had the Japan carry trade and we had the the tariff debacle besides those two events.
I mean, really, since October of 23, we've essentially been in up only mode.
You know, we've had a little bit of pullbacks along the way.
And and we've really lulled or the bulls have really been lulled into the idea that, you know, if you get any 5% pullback within these markets, you just buy
it and you'll, you know, you'll end up, you'll end up, you know, like up 20% in on your position,
even buying the index in like three, four or five months, which is a very, very dangerous position
to be in. It kind of breeds a form of complacency
that I think is largely not discussed
and not talked about within these markets.
You know, in crypto,
bros have been going through it.
And on the other end,
you know, a lot of guys within crypto
are saying, oh, crypto can't go lower
because we've already dipped 50%, 60%, right?
We've already dipped 70%.
And to that notion if you
remember if anybody was around last cycle last cycle so many people in regards that were discussing
a lot of the quote-unquote fundamental plays within the sector you know the uni swaps the lunas
the solanas uh the avaxes the? The big, big, big projects that came
out of last cycle. If you guys, if you remember, recall, if you were there and if not, this is a
little bit of history lesson for you. But as we entered into the bear market of 22, and really
even for some projects before that, a lot of people did not believe that all coins as a whole and as a basket could retrace the majority of their 2020 moves.
of BNB, BNB was almost, I think, single-handedly the only name outside of ETH and Bitcoin that
still held up structurally pretty decently, we'll call it. When you look at Uniswap,
we obviously know what happened to Luna.
You know, XRP wasn't really around last cycle.
There was like ICP.
There was a ton of projects, right?
A ton of projects.
And they ended up retracing the entirety of their moves.
You know, and I see people right now looking at XRP, looking at Solana, looking at Doge, even Pepe, you name it, right? You name it. People cannot
fathom that a lot of these projects could go down another 60% from here. And unfortunately,
that's a very dangerous, dangerous mindset to be in because what you end up doing is you end up not systematically or contextualizing the chart.
You then just start hoping and wishing and praying for something and an outcome to happen.
And that's not a sustainable way to be approaching these markets.
You want to be approaching it from a systematic manner.
And what I want to see is a higher timeframe low get put in, right?
Give me some sideways price action.
Show me that buyers are actually in this market.
You know, I saw somebody-
You know what I think the problem is, Prometheus?
Yeah, what's up?
It's that these strategies have worked in the past, right?
In the old, like, just a couple years ago, right?
Especially, you know, 2018, 2019, 2020, all those years,
like there were way less tokens out there, right?
You touched on the dilution in the market.
You were able to buy and continue to buy if the market went down and
hold on to these things and eventually, you know, get saved by the market where you DCA,
you know, in larger downtrends, you DCA these projects, you go through like a reaccumulation
period, and then they go back up.
Right.
So the problem is, and this is something I had to kind of get my change my mindset on
where I'm like, I got introduced into investing and trading through crypto right in 2018.
And that's what I did all 2018, 2019.
All I was doing was buying dip after dip after dip until we finally made it to the lows.
And I just was lucky enough to stay around, stick with it, buy throughout that reaccumulation period.
And I had a great 2021.
And I think people are still stuck in that mindset that all of these altcoins, whatever they are,
whether they're micro caps, whether they're maybe medium know, you know, maybe mediums, medium caps, memes or whatever, or even the high caps is that they can just continue to
buy, buy, buy, no matter how low the price gets. And eventually it will go back up that, that
mindset can work, right. But it's, it's more so in the right tickers, in my opinion, right? I feel
like this market is changing it's very very obvious
this market has changed there's there's just too many tickers out there there's not enough liquidity
for all of these things to go up together at the same time um and you could really only do it with
the right tickers um so i feel like people are stuck in that mindset i was like oh well you know
i'm already down bad like market will come back liquidity will well, you know, I'm already down bad. Like market will come back and liquidity will come back.
You know, money will find its way into, into this random, uh, token I own.
Um, and I can sell at a later date higher.
I just kind of wait it out.
Um, I don't know if that's true anymore.
Right.
That kind of used to be the case and it's worked in the past.
Um, and it can work in certain tickers, right?
Certain cryptos or digital assets that have revenue,
solve a real world problem.
People actually use it.
For those type of things, absolutely, that could work, right?
But for other stuff, not so much, right?
So I think people are stuck in that mindset
and not realizing the changes that are happening
in this market and the market's telling you
it doesn't have an appetite for everything, it only going to have an appetite for maybe select names
and and the job is to find those right names and buy them at the right times
yeah i mean to your point louie this market has been and mean, a few things really. First off, Bitcoin has been in a structural uptrend the entire time until we broke that
100K region, right?
As soon as we broke that 100K region, then it was like, you know, okay, like the trend
is structurally changed, right?
You look at a lot of your high timeframe momentum oscillators, that was RSI, MACD, you know, whatever you want to changed, right? You look at a lot of your high timeframe momentum oscillators,
was RSI, MACD, you know, whatever you want to use, right? You know, high timeframe order flow,
money flow, whatever it is, right? It's been risk on the entire time. And sure, you know, from a structural perspective, you could have looked at February of this year and there was worries going into April.
But coming out of April, it was very clear that Bitcoin was in a high time frame accumulation coming out of April, right? And because of that, right? Because of that, you then saw continuation of
the bull market, right? And then it was no longer a question of, okay, are we going to really be
seeing continued bull market? As of right now, we've broken structure and we have no confirmation that a bottom is in
whatsoever.
And I like your point too, Louis, right?
Where people are hoping that money's going to come into whatever ticker that they're
still bag holding.
But to those people, right?
If anybody listening is somebody who's held and you're down on your position, like 80%,
who's held and you're down on your position, like 80%, you know, 90%. Well, even with a tiny,
90%.
small amount of capital, you can still turn that into something that is life-changing,
but you'll never be able to if you don't take that opportunity and use it as a learning experience.
And that's where most people,
like that I hear that,
oh, I'll just hold on to it and I'll hope that, you know,
if it comes back up, it comes back up.
You're just like allowing,
you're just like hoping and wishing, right?
You're not taking fate into your own hands.
You're not learning from said experience.
And it's truly just then becomes like,
you're just trying to play the
power ball in the lottery kind of, you know, and at that point you might as well just go play the
power ball in the lottery because they have better payouts anyways. Right. You know, the power ball
is at 1.1 bill, like just go do that. Right. Um, but three, and then I'll pass it on over to some
of the other speakers that we brought up here.
Three, this market has been institutionally driven since the bear market lows, right?
Retail could, you know, after FTX, you know, the market was anemic.
We literally went sideways within a 200-point range essentially for like two months.
Then coming out of that
into like 20 to 30K. It was very choppy, very rangy. And what propelled us out of that and
accelerated the bull market was institutions and ETF flows. And so this entire cycle,
big reason why altcoins have been crunched to outside of the dilution is the amount of
disposable income for retail has been significantly lower than what it was last cycle. And interestingly
enough, from a statistics standpoint, which I can put out a chart tonight or tomorrow on it,
if people want me to, is that disposable income per household is lower now than it was in 2017.
And if, as we know, there's no institutional appetite for the majority of all coins, right?
And if it's retail driven and retail disposable income, right, the amount of money that they
can use to put into invest side investments, gambling, meme coins, just throw money at it or use the money that they have to be able to do so is significantly less.
That's what drastically reduces the potential for a broader altcoin season.
the potential for a broader altcoin season. And if you've seen this cycle, okay, retail has no
money to bid, bid anything at this point, right? They just don't. It's, I mean, it's clear cut,
dry, simple. And if institutions right now are getting crunched from a liquidity perspective,
i.e. the Japan carry trade, which I can go into if people want me to,
but I discussed it a little bit earlier. You now have the driver of the market
getting put on having to pump the brakes, right? And you're seeing a liquidity crunch right now.
And this asset class is so sensitive to liquidity, so sensitive, right? The bull market last cycle was a prime example of that, right? Right now is a prime example of that. And so the driver is now losing gas and steam and momentum and accelerant. What happens next? Right. But anyways, I will pass it on over to CryptoData.
We brought him.
We brought CryptoData up here.
We would love to hear from CryptoData.
CryptoData, what's going on?
What are you seeing in the markets?
And how is your Tuesday been?
Hey, what's going on, Prometheus?
Always a pleasure to be here.
Just real quick.
I'm in my car.
So how can you hear me?
Does the voice sound OK?
Yeah, you sound great.
Perfect.
Awesome.
Well, hey, great insights
as always from you and everyone else up here. Now, I echo your sentiment as far as there's not as
much liquidity as there was a few months ago, especially after October 10th. And I think right
now this week, especially, we've seen a lot of uncertainty in the market because we have a lot
of data coming out, right? You have the unemployment data come out today. CPI has come out December
18th. European Central Bank has theirI's come out December 18th.
European Central Bank has their
meetings for rates on December
18th as well.
Then you have the Bank of Japan.
Their rate hike is going to be
December 19th which you were
mentioning about the carry trade
unwinding.
And that's something where
they're proposing a 25 basis
point rate hike which.
Technically you could say it's
being priced down.
We may see a little dip when it
happens but if it's higher.
We'll definitely see a little
flesh in the market so keeping an eye on that. But I do think that a
lot of that uncertainty this week and a lot of the chop we've seen is a reflection of all of those
meetings that still have yet to come. And so I'm watching that very closely. I do think it's
possible to make it some type of Santa rally after that because there'll be some more certainty in
the market. But just from looking at the the stock market you're seeing gold nearly reaching all-time highs and so that echoes that uncertainty and you're
seeing the s p pull back a little bit now you have obviously outperformers like tesla and a few others
reaching all-time highs but at the end of the day it's still people are being more defensive than
not and you mentioned also we've definitely broken structure and i echo that as well i mean bitcoin
had a bear flag that is technically forming and
we've broken out of that upward channel that we were just in and so if Bitcoin can't reclaim back
above let's say 90k then we could be going a lot lower and I would look for a potential bottom near
78k and if you look on the weekly chart and you zoom out you'll see potentially a head and shoulders
pattern that's forming right now we form the left shoulder already and the head the bottom of that head would be around 78k which lines up with major
support and so that would give us a potential bounce to around 105k by June of next year which
I know people want to hear all-time highs but at the end of the day like you said you just have to
focus on market structure and ethereum is showing similar structure as well, breaking out of its bear flag and just making those lower lows now versus the higher lows they were forming earlier.
So I think that there is still opportunity in the market. There is still opportunity to play these bounces.
Solana is showing good support at 125. It bounced up to 130 today.
And so you still have those little plays. But I think the main sentiment is everyone's taking profit as soon as possible because the limitations are so prevalent because there's such a dilution of capital, because there's so many coins being created every day that any narrative that gets formed, you know, it changes't really hold anything more than a few days. And you mentioned as well, holding something down 90%, why wouldn't you at least get whatever
remaining capital you have and build that up with something else?
Because even if something's down 90%, it can still go down another 90%.
And that's what people don't realize is they think that, okay, it can't go down that much
more.
But in reality, how many of these altcoins go to zero?
I mean, nearly 100% of them. And so it's just a matter of time. And so finding those outperformers, you've seen Monero being an outperformer and privacy tokens in general. And so you have to find that narrative, find that niche where those outperformers are happening and then bet on those, the ones that are forming higher lows and the ones that actually have capital flowing into them. And so that's something I'm really focused on as well, identifying those outperformers. And then besides that, just looking at what are the new narratives that are forming?
And I think right now, you know, obviously you have the stock market, which I think people should
diversify into the stock market at the very least, whether it's AI, robotics, quantum,
even biotech is another narrative that's forming as well but i think that if you and i think we're losing you
louie do you are you able to hear him or no can you hear me now no there you go
okay yeah you're good perfect so yeah so I was saying so the narratives in crypto are the prediction markets like you have CalShit, Polymarket, right? Those are gaining attention as well. And I think that if you can find some strong narratives to latch on to, then obviously that's going to be a little bit better for your capital spent versus some of these dead narratives like gaming or others that aren't catching, you know, any type of hype. And so that's what I've been trying to focus on and really just being patient at the end of the day, because when you have a market that's as
choppy as it is, like it's, you can't afford to just hold things to zero. Like you got to be
flexible. You got to rotate. Yes. There's some memes that are popping off, but at the same time,
take profits on those memes. Don't try to hold them because it's just, that's, you know, that's
not plus EV anymore. And so i think q1 we
definitely could see some bullishness i'm looking at i know treasury secretary besant was saying
that they may look at a one thousand and two thousand dollar tax refund in q1 you also have
the treasury buybacks happening right now 40 billion dollars worth which is qe light if you
will it's not actual qe but that's something as well and then obviously the fed chair in mid 2026
with trump stimulus and all of that and so i think it's just being patient again. And the cycle's changed. It's
not like it was in 2017 and 2021. It's a lot harder. You mentioned institutional flows. They're
huge driver, right? And so you've got to see, okay, what are the institutions doing right now?
Is there still a lot of capital coming in? I mean, we had a lot of institutional flow that actually came in
from the DATs, the digital asset treasuries, and then now it flowed out. And so when's that
going to return again? And so it's just this whole game of, you know, trying to play as cat and mouse
game of where the money is flowing to. And I mean, at the end of the day, sometimes the best trade is
no trade at all. So just sitting on your hands, waiting for this economic data to come out,
waiting for that certainty to come back to the market. And then from there, choosing which horse you want
to bet on. Yeah, a lot of great, great points made. Yeah, a lot of great points made. I agree.
And interestingly enough, you know, in regards to the standpoint on diversification, I think that
everybody should have some form of exposure to a multitude of different asset classes. Uh, you know, you want
to, at the end of the day, protect your capital. You want to, you know, preserve that. Uh, and even
though it might not necessarily be the fastest horse, you know, the straight, straightest, you
know, straightest arrow to the, to the moon or whatever you want to call it. I sounded retarded, excuse me.
But, you know, it might not be like the fastest horse to get to where you want to go.
But at the end of the day, you know, that fast horse might have a tendency of toppling over.
And, you know, you don't want to be crushed underneath that.
And so at the end of the day, you know, diversification is extremely important, uh,
especially for the majority of people. Um, if you're not able, if you're, you know, you work
in nine to five and you're not able to start the markets 24 seven, like I highly recommend to,
to people that you find other different asset classes to invest in outside of just crypto.
find other different asset classes to invest in outside of just crypto um yeah guys uh
man it's it's been a good show this thus far we've been going for about an hour if anybody
else wants to come up feel free to i know wabi is not feeling the best i'm not sure if he wants to talk or not. He did text me. So we will go here for about five to ten more minutes.
And then if nobody from the audience wants to come up and speak,
we will look to close the spaces out because it's been a great space thus far.
So just a heads up for everybody.
Hey, man.
What's up, Jada uh what's up data what's up bro man you saw monad dip below two cents man it's uh getting near that under a penny level
and btc hasn't even like made new lows yet what are you guys thinking about that man
what are you thinking bounce a little bit here we'll see under a penny What do you think it bounced a little bit here? We'll see under a penny man. Do you think we'll get it?
Most likely got so I mean yeah
Yeah, I would be like
That'd be like a sub one bill valuation you compare that with suey I
Think at least a trade is right there man
but uh that was a great conversation guys um man every single rally on bitcoin has just gotten
retraced over and over you have tesla at all-time highs and
btc can't even sustain a pump over 90k for more than three days
it is um quite something and on chain is just abysmal the vampire attacks that happen on some tickers is just completely ridiculous um that six seven coin was shouted out by JD Vance apparently the same thing
with mr. Beast he shouted it out and it topped that 30 mil yeah on chain is just
fried I think it's fried for a while I don't think i've ever seen on chain this uninspiring um it's so weird man because like
anytime i've gotten sick the market just like goes goes to shambles man um
gosh is there such thing as on chain in the stock stock market, Prometheus? Oh, yeah, bro.
Yes, there is.
My goodness, man.
By the way, guys, follow the BB Terminal account.
Some exciting stuff coming in next year in Q1.
And let's just say that early users for this product are going to be rewarded in a big big big big big way and data bro
let's get on a personal call man um probably like later this week when i can actually sustain a
conversation for more than five minutes man i would love to share some stuff with you brother
i'll probably dm you from my personal account man you'll love what i have to share some really cool
exciting things uh going on internally um at because
bitcoin believe me when i say that for everyone that's hearing
but uh all right guys uh i close up prometheus that was a good time right
yeah i think that was a great space um I said, yesterday, we had a little bit of, uh, things
going on miscommunication with the teams. Wabi was sick. Uh, but we'll make sure that we, we try
to be here every single day, uh, for you guys outside of the weekends, of course. So, but with
that being said, uh, we appreciate you guys stopping by. Thank you to the speakers. If you
guys could give everybody up here on the panel, um, or a follow excuse me and check us out over at because bitcoin we also have
a daily youtube show called market check um if you guys want to check that out that's hosted
around uh 10 or 11 a.m eastern standard time over on youtube it's a technically or ta driven show
if you want to know any more about our discord feel free to check us out we do have an insider
trading group that we go over just about anything and everything we share our trades live with the followers there. But with that being said,
guys, thank you as always for listening with us and being here with us on this beautiful Tuesday
afternoon. So we will see you guys tomorrow at our usual start time. Make sure to hit the like
and repost button and then set that reminder so that you guys
are notified when we do go live. So with that being said, guys, enjoy the rest of your day.
Thank you so much as always.
Insights
P
