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Market Talk- BTC NEW ATH INCOMING !? Crypto green and stocks red!?
Recorded: May 21, 2025 Duration: 1:28:10Space Recording
Short Summary
Bitcoin is leading the market with significant growth, outperforming traditional assets and altcoins, while discussions around Farcoin and Ethereum's performance indicate a bullish trend in the crypto space. The overall sentiment reflects optimism for continued growth as Bitcoin approaches new highs.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. so
guys what is going on we are witnessing history today btc golly stealing the show from all markets
today stealing the show from the stock market stock market is red today all coins are red today
with the exception of i think uh kta most alts uh are really choppy or they're red on today with the exception of some on-chain alts.
As per usual, right, Kida?
And I want to welcome you all on today's special, special show.
Unfortunately, I am out right now.
I am not at the desk, so I'm not able to play the usual cool intro music that I know you guys like.
I really enjoy putting in a tune before I start these spaces to really set the mood and all that
stuff right and nonetheless I want to thank you all for tuning in whether you're here live
or you're listening to the recording. We have a very very special show for you guys today
and just looking
at the markets, you might be thinking, man, how is Bitcoin chatting and the rest of the market
isn't really following along? So I'll provide some clarity amongst the chaos that you guys are
seeing today. In previous cycles, anytime BTC starts going into expansion, right, for example,
December of 2020, when we first broke through 20K, which,
by the way, the excitement was a hell of a lot better than it is right now, or even when we
broke 74K back in November of last year, you typically see Bitcoin follow and then you see
your majors follow. And then as majors chill out, start to consolidate at some levels above their previous all-time high, you tend to see
the broader altcoin market catch up and catch somewhat of a bid. And in case you're wondering
what some of the bid even looks like, if you guys remember about two weeks ago, ETH BTC put in a
massive, massive five-day rally, or I think even seven-day rally and of course practically every
sector in this market started catching a huge bid right and even more recently
if you guys remember during the October pump going into November we actually
pumped right below 74 K and if you guys remember going into November that's when
we fat what that's when we had our first major pullback in the market,
specifically in the AI sector, which was a new meta, a new narrative, right? Or an expansion
of an existing narrative that started with things like FAT and Render. You had newer things like
GO, AI16Z, and all those other names rally quite hard alongside virtuals up until mid-November I think it was a few days before
Halloween and then we had that huge pullback while BTC rallied to 73k and change and it wasn't until
BTC was well above 80,000 where AI started catching a huge bid as a matter of fact you even
look at something like a Solana Solana did not make new year-to-date highs after march of 2024 until until
btc was above 80 000 so just to put it into perspective it's kind of similar to what we
view as perhaps maybe 120k is the new 80k for btc right? So until you see BTC above 120 K all coins really might just chill out here for a little bit. But we do have some confluence with all coins with far coin, which is now pressing up against fresh local highs are about to make fresh local highs. And as crazy as it is, far coin has been signal for the broader all coin space and then
you have hype as well and then of course uh the new kid on the block suey so now it's just a matter
of patience guys and as painful as it is for people that are mostly exposed uh to all coins
you really really really want to root for btc to go as high as possible uh that way you do have your uh
your wave of breadth as we as we've experienced anytime btc has made new highs since the ftx
lows right you guys remember the rallies that we had in 2023 when btc first broke through 25k
and then when we first broke through 32k those were two, Q1 of 23 and then Q4 of 23.
And not to mention the break of 69,000 in Q1 of 2024 and the true, true all-time high break that we had in Q4 where BTC absolutely smashed through 70K with gusto and went parabolic for a straight month really that rally that we had
from that higher low in early october from 58k was practically straight up in a straight line
if you don't count the lower time frame debauchery that went on a few days before the election but nonetheless guys i think we're in for some
exciting times and any drawdown that you're witnessing right now on all coins is probably
going to be reversed within two to three days once btc reaches not price discovery but more like
price acceleration where you see 10k candles to the upside. As we saw back in, I think it was pretty much right after the election,
we had a 10K candle gap.
We gapped up from 68, 69 all the way to 80,000 plus.
And then Seoul made new year-to-date highs.
And, I mean, that show was absolutely beautiful.
That's when Donnie and I started doing these spaces pretty much consistently throughout the weeks.
And, you know, we've been discussing a melt-up in these markets since the lows last April.
That's exactly what's happened, albeit equities are pulling back here today.
And yesterday was a bit choppy.
The S&P is up over a thousand points since those lows last month.
And so once again, I've stated this with every show because I like to reiterate this point.
equity markets pull back 20 plus percent in less than two months and you have the VIX
reached levels not seen since the great financial crisis, you essentially have to bet on either
the regime is going to remain the same and we're going to turbocharge as we have any
time the equities draw down this much with the VIX extremely elevated, or the regime is different and everything
is just completely screwed and we go into a recession. And something that we've seen anytime
the equity markets take somewhat of a nosedive is sentiment often gets skewed and you have
crypto bros turning into macro LARPers, right? They start talking about macro, they start talking
about yields and all that stuff. And it's really funny because just because you participate in
crypto or you were early to Bitcoin doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to be
proficient at predicting a market that's ever changingchanging right the regime that we've seen since the bottom in
march of 2009 has been equity markets turbocharged the downside by 25 percent the markets are probably
bottoms and we're going to turbo rally a few months after that right it's a completely different
regime than we were at say in the 60s ors, where these bear markets would last a year, two years, three years.
And, I mean, you either bet on perpetual optimism when you see these things play out with the VIX and the drawdown and tariff news and all that stuff, or you think you're different and you want to be cute.
So, either way, that's kind of that's
kind of my banter that's my opening statement guys I want to welcome up chill Donnie spread
Paolo smet we got a pretty nice set of guys here I just got done with the podiatrist I was supposed
to go in at four but they had me wait a little longer let me tell you you know you set appointments
for a reason right you go to an appointment supposed to be at this time but the fact of the
matter is just because you set an appointment doesn't necessarily mean it's going to happen
at that time the world does not revolve around anyone's timeline things just happen right but that's my rant about that so guys we're gonna
go ahead and get started welcome back to market talk brought to you by because bitcoin i'm your
host wabi and we're gonna talk about all the craziness that's happening in the market for
the next hour but before we do that guys before we do that if y'all can show some love to the space if you guys can show some love
and support to the space and the best way y'all can do that it's pretty simple only takes a few
steps only takes a few seconds now just click on the spaces tab and then once you do that you'll
see all of our wonderful profile pictures and right above that you'll see a link that says x.com
file pictures and right above that you'll see a link that says x.com slash i slash spaces now
we have almost 300 people in here and we're not even 15 minutes yet into the live so i'm sure you
guys are very very very excited it usually takes about say 30 to 45 minutes for us to generate
those kind of numbers but given the volatility that we're seeing on bitcoin relative to how awkward are performing i'm sure you guys are excited i'm sure you guys are at the edge of
your seats wanting to know what's happening so once again guys if you click the spaces tab
right above our profile pictures you'll see that link you guys can go ahead and smash up the like
button smash the like button if you want to see 120k btc smash the like button if you
want to see your alts absolutely send and send and send right after btc goes one to price discovery
right we want this cycle to be a traditional cycle right btc leads and it kind of sets the path
for all coins to absolutely melt up. But also
don't forget to smash up the repost button. The repost button, the retweet button is just as
important. Helps bring more eyes and ears to the space, helps get more people in here, brings more
awareness to the brand. We go live multiple times throughout the week for you guys for free. We
bring you entertainment. We bring you some alpha rants and banter amongst all things.
And sometimes, you know, we'll talk about some fitness stuff, I guess, right?
I like to lift heavy shit.
If you guys follow me on my personal profile, sometimes I upload lifting videos.
Sometimes we talk supplements and all that stuff.
But nonetheless, I'm going to go ahead and stop yapping and pass the mic over to the panel.
Spaces are recorded as always.
So as per usual, I'm going to pass it over to Donnie.
That's usually the routine that we do.
I pass it over to Donnie and then we expand on that.
So Donnie, brother, here we are.
They said it couldn't be done.
They said it couldn't be done, man.
They said it couldn't be done.
You have it on
your pin profile i personally thought we wouldn't go into price discovery until a couple weeks after
we bottomed i think it was like two weeks after that i think when we crossed like 90k 88k something
like that i'm like all right we're gonna melt the up. And that's really when the equity markets really started to turbocharge.
And here we are, right after that FOMC meeting.
That's when the trend really, really, really got started, brother.
And once again, they said it couldn't be done.
they were making fun of the bulls they said chop chop chop chop chop and man the moves that
They were making fun of the bulls.
They said, chop, chop, chop, chop, chop.
have happened in this market since the bottom have been absolutely incredible i mean just take
a look at mstr stocks for example take a look at hood stock complete the reversal and beset and trump both told the people to fear not to buy and buy now to do the
right thing and really anyone that has gone against this deserves to be strapped into a
rocket launcher and just thrown into space because honestly like if people weren't enthusiastic over the last month and a half and we're telling people
to be careful i i think some chargers should be pressed donnie what do you think man maybe uh
maybe a couple of months at well at guantanamo bay should fix the sentiment around here man
hey wabi what's up, man?
Thanks for hosting the space.
Yeah, it's nice to see, finally.
A nice jab at the all-time high.
I think BTC is literally just flirting around with it
until we get a pop above it.
Probably somewhere around 115, 120,
potentially even higher before a little bit of a pullback.
And then just, I feel like,
continuation from there is going to start unfolding. yeah everything is lined up um i'm even seeing stuff that i'm
looking at now to essentially give this run even more upside from where it's where it should already
be going right now i think i made a very simple post the other day, kind of one of the main macro levers that's gotten us off the lows to where we are right now was the DXY
from the highs all the way to the lows. It was about a 98 day downtrend for DXY and very
aggressive. And throughout that period, you saw China and many other economies easing their monetary policies to a very high degree.
And subsequently, global liquidity just kept going up into the right.
So we had a very nice backdrop of liquidity.
Plus, we were kind of just waiting for Trump to reverse the playbook so that we could get the risk-on signal back into the market so people can slowly, incrementally FOMO back into the market
as they incrementally do confirm that.
So I think that side is pretty much entirely confirmed at this point based off of what
Scott Besson has recently said publicly, trying to outpace their debt via growth.
It's just a very inflationary environment.
They're going to push hard for it. And subsequently, the market's going to boom,
just like how they said. So yeah, DXY nuke 98 days. Actually, it's like, yeah, it is 98 days
from the high to the low. And this rally has been going on for about 43 days. So we're still
just around halfway into pricing in that big DXY nuke. And yeah,
it's not over yet. So I'm expecting higher upside. And recently also gold came off a very high
number. I think it was like 3,500. Let me just pull up the chart real quick. Yeah, it came down
from 3,500 and actually to the low point that it recently hit around 3.1 is an 11% drop.
Right now it's ranging around this point.
It could actually continue downtrending lower.
But the point being is that it corrected 11%.
And before the election rally in November of 2024, it corrected 9% after a rally and ranged for some months,
before it corrected 9% after a rally and ranged for some months, which led to about a 60%
rally on BTC's chart when the risk on signal was given.
So we're correcting harder than that now from even more inflated gold.
So even just ranging around here, because I believe gold could actually potentially
continue higher here.
It doesn't really matter.
It could go lower before going higher but
it's down more than that uh rally that we had in btc right so it keeps ranging here it's already
down 11 it's just adding to the bigger sort of picture of what fuels risk to go higher it's risk
appetite global liquidity and for btc specifically i like to look at the gold or the BTC to gold
ratio chart. And that's looking to flip pretty bullish here. If we can get a breakout on that
as well, there's just no reason for you not to be in the market. So as that keeps unfolding,
I just think you're going to see a rush of FOMO to go higher. Now, DXY, I just said it has 98
day drawdown and just came up for a nice retest of this level,
which I didn't want to reclaim.
And it's rejected very cleanly off that level,
which was 101.8-ish, 102, let's say.
So you came up for a retest,
very obvious retest from how much of a sharp drawdown it had,
like even just technically on the chart.
And now you're looking to trend back towards that 98 level, which if you lose that, I said, I need to be rushed into hospital,
because I'm going to be way too bullish. And that still stands. Like if that continues trending
towards the mid to low 90s from here over the next two to four weeks, then this rally is going
to continue into August, September, potentially even October with even more monetary expansion.
So I'm really excited to see that unfold
and I hope it happens in the shortest timeframe possible
so we don't have to mess around,
let's say at like 130, 140, 150 on BTC.
And maybe we stall out a little bit there,
a little bit of a correction, nothing too crazy,
maybe 10, 15, 16, 17%,
maybe even 20%
before continuing another leg
into those later months of the year,
August, September, around there.
And then we're going to need more data
moving from that point.
But yeah, everything's looking good.
I think you touched on
alts not really moving yet.
And again, that's very traditional
of kind of the broader, euphoric part of the market unfolding.
We kind of do want to see BTC absorb all the liquidity while it breaks out, you know, giving it a very strong breakout.
And then from there, we'll see on, you know, pullbacks and stuff like that, how the rest of the market uh takes that liquidity right
eth right now structurally looks very bullish uh i think that it'll still the eth usd chart will
still go up if btc puts in a significant move uh you know i don't see how eth doesn't move on that
kind of a push on btc right i think it's going to be pretty significant going to like 115 120
um and the main part for that liquidity shift that I'd be looking for
is just a reclaim on the ETH BTC chart around 0.03, let's say,
which is just a weekly market structure level.
Basically, you flip the trend, which is a clear downtrend for three years,
back to bullish on the weekly chart.
So you reclaim that level, it kind of is indicating,
okay, it's ETH's time to really shine. So it's almost there. And as long as BTC puts in these higher
numbers now, I think it's all go for an old season. So yeah, it's looking good. It's super quiet,
even though we tapped the whole time high, which is actually nice. It can be frustrating when
you're bullish and you're looking around, you're like, why is everyone bearish or scared and all
this kind of stuff? But actually, it's better The longer it stays like that, right? I'm sure
there's going to be people drawing lines to the downside at 110, 115, 120, 130, maybe
even all the way to 140. So that's what you want to see. Just ignore all the negative
noise and just kind of see the real picture, which is that. Yeah yeah i'm super excited to see this unfold and the timing was
very very uh nice right may and june i think these months are going to be these next like two to six
weeks are going to be really big so yeah just super excited man this is an emergency update this is
an urgent btc and crypto meeting man if people aren't in here
i don't i don't know what they're doing man we've been covering this pretty much every single day
that the stock market has been trading and i mean what what else has there been to talk about man
We're up 50 plus percent off of the lows.
And I mean, I know I don't really like ETH, but ETH a little over a week ago showed us a little sample of what's to come, brother.
And we have to imagine, right, we have to put our thinking caps on.
We have to put our rally hats, our imagination caps, put in our Ready Player One goggles,
which I saw that movie again yesterday.
It's pretty good if you haven't seen it yet, Ready Player One.
And just imagine when the indices go into price discovery.
And there's always this sentiment, brother, like, oh, dude, the summer is always bad. It's always choppy. But over the last 10 years,
10 years plus, the summer has been amazing for equity markets. Last year, NVIDIA and MSTR were
turbocharging. Gold was turbocharging. Same thing with 23. 22, we even rallied all the way up to 4200 and change uh 2021 we rally 2020 rally 2019 2018 2017
2016 so quite frankly uh it's time to put your rally cap on maybe not once but twice given the
given the context of what happened for the first four months of the year, right?
That huge drawdown was something else, man.
But what do you think of Farcoin here, brother?
That's the real gas in the room, right?
We have to think to ourselves, what happens when flatulence catches up to the stock market?
That's the real big kahuna that's the real
exclusive urgent and emergency spaces update for the people the people want to know they need to
know they have to know yeah i think it's in a really good spot to push for an all-time high
it's been you know consolidatingating or just kind of vertically accumulating
from ever since the point it passed 1 billion.
It's been around 1 billion and the mid-range on the chart,
which is around 1.4.
And it's been uptrending from a billion,
but mainly staying sideways.
So it's built up a lot of energy, a lot of change of hands.
Every other coin has had a chance to run a little bit off the lows.
Therefore, the rotations out of Fartcoin are less attractive now.
If all of the other coins are catching up,
why would you be rotating out of a leader to catch other coins?
They've already pumped off the lows.
So that's kind of why it's stalled out.
You can't stick out that much ahead of everybody else
without people rotating out and being like,
oh, let me pick up this coin.
Actually, it looks like it's coming off the low.
And then that's kind of what stalled out Fartcoin here.
But now that everything is slowly starting to catch up a little bit, you saw Mooding
also approach the mid-range on the chart and some other charts curling out.
I think it's pretty imminent that liquidity is going to be pulled back into this coin
liquidity is going to be pulled back into this coin at any moment and it goes for the all-time
at any moment, and it goes for the all-time high break.
high break plus it's never existed at a time where you have a full-on price discovery break
on you know eth mainly to be honest which you know is the main driver of like kind of this
old season right we haven't had an eth btc flip in three years so i think that's pretty close
and when that does happen it's only going to benefit something like Firecoin, even though it's on Solana, right?
It's just a broader market alt season.
So I also think BTC is headed for some pretty high numbers.
I still need to see the DXY stuff
that I just talked about earlier
and a bunch of other things unfold
over the next couple of months
to increase the likelihood of like 180 to 200K
this year for BTC.
And, you know, if those numbers start to come about, then you're looking at a 2x on BTC.
Let's say ETH outperforms it by 2x and it just does a 4x.
Sol's going to do more multiples than ETH.
Then what do you think Firecoin's going to do, right?
The most speculated, most hyped up, highest mindshare meme token on Solana,
while majors are pulling in you know big
multiples i think a 10x is like easily warranted if ether is going to do a 4x let's say like over
the course of the cycle so you know it could even do like disgusting numbers something around like
10 20 even more billion so i think this next leg for it will cement where it's headed i think it's
warranted for an all-time high break,
which would only be, you know,
let me actually measure it right now.
It's only a 90% move, right?
So if BTC is going to push pretty hard,
I think it can do that pretty easily.
Price discovery will, you know,
lead to finding some sort of high in the deep billions. billions so yeah we'll see if it can flip uh
whiffs all-time high which i think it was around or just under five but yeah i think it's sitting
in a good spot really good trade yeah five seems to be the ceiling right now for uh for things on
soul with topped out at five ai16z topped out at three three to five seems to be uh that kind
of upper echelon um for how things uh can go to the upside i did see matt with his hand up matt
did you want to say something brother oh just a quick little addition point in there. like your solana like your sui like your other uh uh medium or small cap altcoins start to pump
and eth doesn't participate because let's zoom out let's zoom out bitcoin's making new all-time highs
just made one today right now and eth is not at 5k it's not at 4k it's like holding on with its
fingertips to 25002,500.
Like at a certain point, that money in ETH,
like the traders and the bag holders,
they're going to move to faster moving assets.
They'll either capitulate to Bitcoin or they'll go find another altcoin to ride up.
So in a weird way, you really don't need ETH to participate.
I think that's what we've been seeing all cycle long.
Whether it's Fartcoin, that meme, or so many other meme coins, or Solana, or Sui, or all the other altcoins y'all have been talking about.
I think this cycle has proven one thing.
You didn't need ETH to participate.
If anything, it's money moving out of ETH and pumping everything else.
If anything, it's money moving out of ETH and pumping everything else.
And as long as Bitcoin is in a bull market, that DGEN money or that trader money or that hot money, whatever you want to call it, feels confident to participate.
So just a different alternative. Because you hear it from other accounts, too.
Especially big ones like Alex Becker and stuff.
They're calling for 6K ETH and 10K ETH.
And I don't know.
Me, I'm always a bit dubious.
Let's see the ETH Foundation not just sell another massive bag at 4K.
Then we'll talk about 6K.
And I agree with you on a lot of that. But when ETH does rally, that tends to give some of the
best market conditions. Yes, we don't need ETH to rally, right? We've seen a ton of stuff go crazy over the course of this cycle. Stuff like Injective, like CASPA, like Tau, and we're even seeing now some things going up as well.
Over the course of the cycle, you know, we don't need to see ETH rally.
But when ETH does rally, we see some of the best on-chain conditions.
I mean, roll back to the last, you know, these past, what, two or three weeks that ETH has pumped massively off the bottom.
And shout out to you, Wabi.
The last time I was on these spaces, I think that later that day you tweeted out
or something.
You told me to trade on Hyperliquid.
You said, bro, try it out.
You're not going to regret it.
And I did.
Right as ETH was pumping, I said, you know what?
I think this is the perfect time to try Hyperliquid.
And I did.
And it was the best trading experience that I've had trading some of
these on-chain AI tickers. So that's why I say all of that to say we want ETH to rally. We should
prefer an ETH rally, even though we don't need it. At the same time, I do see that they're, you know,
I see what you're saying about the ETH foundation and everything. However, I still do have a 15K
target. Not that we need to get there for, you know, other bags to pump, but I still do think
that, you know, when we have a market structure bill coming out later this year, we have a stable coin bill coming out not too long from now. that is new or a chain that is battle tested more,
you know, that has been around for a while and has most of the value on that
chain. Because, you know, would they go for something like Solana?
Maybe, but Solana can also stop the chain at any point. They can also,
the chain has also gone down in the past.
So there are some concerns about that from, from, you know,
some of these bigger players.
So I'm thinking about stuff like that.
If I'm looking at who's coming in, more than likely they're going on ETH.
More than likely a lot of this stuff will happen on ETH.
And that's why I'm bullish base.
I'm sure that's why things like KTA, KIDA have ran so much.
So don't need an ETH rally, but definitely prefer one. That's for
sure. Yeah, you saw off the lows, like I just shared a chart up in the nest. It's I've shared
a few times is basically just ETH BTC over the dollar. And, you know, ETH BTC is just like the
risk barometer of crypto, right? If that thing is flipped bullish, people are feeling risky in this
market. And this is the most out on the risk curve asset class in the world.
You don't really get that bid on absolutely everything in here until this chart flips
bullish.
And so if you do reclaim that level on the ETH BTC chart, which is 0.03, and BTC is in
price discovery, then I just don't see how that chart doesn't flip, right? You've got all the macro levels, all the macro levers aligned for this massive risk on period to unlock itself
that I just don't see how this doesn't catch a bit. It's just the most highly liquid trade
to make profit, let alone like screw all the fundamentals, just the most highly liquid trade to make profit in this asset class other than BTC, which, you know, if it's at 150, 200,
how many more multiples are left in the tank this cycle on that, right? That's when ETH becomes an
attractive trade and it has every other time. And when you just look at like the dollar since the
COVID blowout, it's literally been above 100 for three years. So we've had this very rotation-heavy market where you see sometimes meme coins run,
sometimes the AI narrative goes crazy.
It's because you've had very tight financial conditions, and you're finally having that
move.
If I may add just a quick point in there before we move on and move past it, this cycle
has seen a lot of change.
And I'm not sure if everyone saw it when it happened,
but Solana has the highest stablecoin transfer volume now.
And it didn't happen in 2025.
It flipped ETH in 2024.
Solana has $10 trillion in stablecoin volume.
ETH is now second place with $7.8, maybe $8 trillion in volume as far as, you know,
if you take ChatGPT or Grok at their word.
TRON at $5.4, $5.5.
And BASE is actually one of the fastest growing.
BASE is up to maybe $2.55, maybe it's 3 trillion now. This is
still 2024 data. But I don't know. I mean, like, look, you know me, I don't have any Solana. I
don't have any ETH. I'm not talking my bags and I'm not shorting anything. So I'm just looking at
what's happening and guessing with the rest of you.
But if you get your stablecoin bill, if you get your banks complain this space bill in the U.S. and a crypto friendly bill.
I mean, I think that's super bullish to Solana, who you know is on the verge of getting their own spot ETFs.
That is coming.
Like BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, Valkyrie, you name it.
Like that's the next hot spot ETF that's going to come down the pipe.
And people are going to play in that.
So I don't know.
ETH, 15K?
I don't know.
Matt, I can chime in here. What I think chill meant, and I have to agree because, how can I say it better?
They're not going to deploy on Solana because of Solana's problems with the technicals. But they're going to deploy different type of solution and infrastructures and, I don't know, any type of ideas.
Institution, they're not going to deploy on, maybe on SUI, I have no idea.
But most likely they're going to do it on the most battle-tested when it comes also to time
and also when it comes to efficiency, etc., etc.
And like the second after Bitcoin, it cannot.
Bitcoin, it's in its own league
when it comes to just treasury, wealth gathering
and, you know, beating everything else.
But when it comes to technology, infrastructure
and being battle-tested and time-tested,
it's going to be Ethereum.
I just want to remind people of something the european bank for investments in 2021 they launched an emission for
european bonds and the chain was chosen and it was ethereum and it was for 100 million euros
and it sold out in like a couple of minutes.
So I think this is what chill maybe meant
and I have to agree.
And this is also my only case
where I see Ethereum actually getting some like real,
real traction ahead of the others that you just mentioned.
That's fair.
And that's what makes markets.
But yeah, going back to all the way to the beginning point, Bitcoin and price discovery, this is going to float all boats.
This is bullish everyone, period.
And I'm with Donnie's timeline.
We were talking about it way back in the early spring that the sell in may go away people are going to get surprised this
year you already had a massive correction in bitcoin and in broader markets a negative 20
negative 25 percent even if you play around with the wicks a negative 30 drawdown in bitcoin
alone so we already got all of that degen leverage hot money flushed out of the system
people liquidated and a new base has been formed now we've consolidated for 200 days
just like 2023 just like 2024 we know what happens after bitcoin consolidates for 200 days
it's another major move higher wabi can i go or chill yeah yeah yeah you can go i just want to say you know what's a better trade
than holding uh spot ether spot soul probably buying some hood um i understand in trad fi
there's this uh weird thing about buying treasury companies that allocate to btc
about buying treasury companies that allocate to BTC.
Hood probably outperformed Sol on ETH to a big degree.
Lower market cap, too.
People underestimate how high a single name in stocks can go,
but NVIDIA off of the bottom, I think,
has done even bigger numbers than Sol from the lows of late 2022 just so people understand how aggressive
things can move um nvidia turbocharged by like 30x plus from those lows and uh yeah that's what
i have to say about that man but go you can go ahead spread okay fair enough i'm i was never a stock
trader uh but you might have a point there since robin hood is kind of under the radar
they hold they hold everything man if you're bullish on retail if you're bullish on retail
coming in they will buy your bags they're literally going to buy your bags to list it on their exchange you know um
i i don't gotta buy supply to sell they gotta buy i don't disagree with that it's just that
i didn't chart hood at all and maybe it's the time i just reached my target on micro strategy
from 380 to 440 i think it was one of my only stock trades in the last, I don't even know how much time.
I just wanted to add something to what Donnie said. And actually, it flew under the radar of
a lot of people. Monday night, so yeah, Monday to Tuesday night, PBOC, People Bank of China,
they cut the rates for the one year and the five year prime rates low prime rates and I think a lot of people
do not understand the implications when China is also easing not easing when it comes to
quantitative easing because a lot of people get it twisted but easing the credit cycle so if they're
making it much easier for you know the retail there or for like the general folk and also
companies to take credit much
easier it's just going to stimulate the whole economy and this is what they want to do right now
um and i think it's pretty pretty pretty significant and donny has a very fair point
it's much easier for these countries to weaken their currencies with a weaker dollar without
affecting their own economies and tomorrow i think and
donnie i didn't forget man about what i promised you guys and what i promised you regarding a base
of hard coin but tomorrow well i will i will publish a chart and a video most likely with
probably one of the most important things that i've seen in a long time. It's a chart that comes from 6,100, 6,200 days of a downtrend.
And it's very important for DXY.
It's very important for the whole market.
And if a trend changes after 6,000 days,
you can bet your ass off that it's going to take a lot of time on the other direction.
And if this is happening, DXY is going to eat a lot of dust going forward so um i had the monthly chart on the xy 101 area it was very important we stayed
above 101 since 2022 last month it was the first month when we closed under 101 and this month we
had the bearish rejection so my target now is like 96 98 and if we lose that poof hold your horses and actually i said this trump likes a
like likes the weaker dollar and going forward i don't see how the xy is not going to weaken
and yeah happy times um two days ago like two days ago i was in another space
and i had a lot of people on the panel i respect them good traders but they were saying that they
want to hedge that we should be cautious and i said you know what if you guys are on this boat
i'm gonna be the contrarian and i was like you know i'm extremely bullish and none of my indicators
indicated like a top okay local top doesn't give a shit but i'm saying like top top pure multiple
one of the indicators that helped me a lot this cycle. It's nowhere near a cycle top.
So I don't know.
There are so many confluences.
I flipped also bullish on the equities after I was, for the last, I think,
five, six weeks bearish when we had the Trump tariff drama.
And if S&P can hold itself about 5,700 and bounce higher and put another all-time high
man we're after a good time I have so many things that I like I like Monero and I liked it before
I like Pepe how it's looking Farcoin looks amazing and I have a few others that I handle
starts to look good also there are so many things and um i i think it's also time to look at the
btc pairs because like i said for example monero looks good versus btc pepe looks good versus btc
we have a lot of altcoins that start to look good also against their btc pair and if we have these
altcoins which look good in their btc pairs like all bTC pairs, while Bitcoin is at all-time high.
When Bitcoin is going to just chill for a little while, I think we're going to have a good time
with them. So I'm in full lock-on mode, been shorting the dollar for the last few days,
and I'm enjoying these times. And this is just for buying. Like I said, you know,
lift weights, eat stakes, buy Bitcoin, you know. I like that. That's nice.
Yeah, it is funny though.
You're right.
If you just take the tickers away,
take the names away,
all the meme coins
have the best looking charts.
It's actually ironically funny.
From Bomp to Farcoin
to Floki to Modang pepe shib crump
with all of them they have to it just from a ta's perspective because i get bored and i look at
everything i don't own any but but i look anyway and they all have the best charts both usd and
btc launch coin looks so ready to just absolutely smoke through its previous all-time high, man.
But then we saw BTC just steal the show.
It seems like, and this was my suspicion, a lot of the people that are active on-chain
that can run up bags to like a bill, half a bill,
they're all the perps traders from 2017 2018 and 2020 and 2021 man um i mean
the price action we see on chain this cycle that's the same price action we saw in majors last cycle
dude like you remember the days where cardano and luna would be up 60 in a day avax all those yeah all the l1 thesis yep all that stuff moved over uh
to on chain dude so yep yep um uh paulo's did you want to say something man
what's going on brother welcome yo yo thanks for having me wabi. No, I mean, it's a super interesting discussion and all of you guys were chiming in.
So I was just sitting back listening and I agree with a lot that has been said.
Donnie, I have a question for you just based on today's action.
Like obviously it was pretty wild, like from the morning to the afternoon with the bond auction situation that happened like
do you think that um just the way equities were reacting um do you think we could still
have another like pull back from here before we really send it or do you think that we've kind
of crossed the chasm um touching all-time highs and
we're in the clear? So from the bottom both Bitcoin and SPX have looked relatively similar.
There was like a trend line that was holding them back from breaking out. BTC broke out first and
formed many ranges and then popped up, formed another range, popped up again. So they've kind of resynced back up right now.
And actually this pullback on equities I was expecting because BTC actually shot up to 106,
had that big flush down to like 100.8, which is actually kind of the move that's being priced in on the SPX chart right now.
So I actually think what follows that move down on SPX, if it's still trailing BTC here, is just actually pushing back higher over 6,000 on this next move. So yeah, if
you look at it just side by side, it's really just trailing what Bitcoin has done. So I don't think
any of those headlines or anything like that is really what's affecting the chart. It's just,
they're just timed, I guess, at the correct times
on pullbacks, on pumps.
It doesn't really matter.
It's more so the backdrop that we have of just liquidity is ample
and risk appetite is returning because of the reversal
of the playbook by the Trump administration.
So I just think it goes higher.
So I just think it goes higher.
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
I guess if we want to get into some actual just on-chain stuff that I'm watching,
I saw some project that started vamping basically all the Solana on-chain stuff that came out,
and I'm still trying to figure out what exactly it is
but this is good you ibrl oh i thought you i thought you were going to talk about distribute
oh yeah that too but have you seen ibrl uh bobby i i haven't the only thing that i saw
was uh distribute dis and i was uh on route to the podiatrist when they launched and they did like a
quick 5x like that team just injected money into their token um but yeah outside of that i didn't
i didn't see ibrl really dude i thought the reason why we're seeing pretty much everything on chain nuked by
like 30 40 50 was because btc was going into price discovery i didn't think that like
there was some vamping token out there man i had no idea yeah same here like i was actually out
out of uh the office like pretty much all day and uh came back and I looked because when I left my house
it was looking a lot better at least the on-chain bags but then I came back and then one thing that
just like caught my eye because I'm obviously still pretty bullish on LaunchCoin I'm holding
quite a substantial amount and for some reason like that chart just started nuking like really more aggressively
than other stuff.
So I did a bit of research.
People were scared that this IBRL project is like some kind of competitor.
But now people are saying it's not.
It's actually something that Launch coin could be used using so
it's essentially um backed by the solana guys and they were posting about it uh ansem kobe and a
couple of these other big guys were also interacting with it um they claim to have solved the sniper
bot issues that has been going on forever with any of these coins, whether it's Pomp, Launch, or any of these.
Just a better AMM model.
And IBRL is like the first token that they're testing with essentially this platform.
And I don't know, there's a whole thing.
They have like a ton of... Paulo, can I ask you something sorry to interrupt you yeah how can they how can they claim that
they they figure out the sniper problem if this is the first token that they're testing with I mean
yeah I said the same thing yeah I know a hundred percent like that that that's exactly what went
through my head when I first saw it but totally totally basically uh re like uh retweeted and uh
is pretty excited about this he said if it works it's gonna it's gonna be a huge uh improvement to
obviously any soul um launches I'm still kind of like skeptical looking through it apparently paradigm is also behind this so i don't
know like i i don't know what to think but that apparently was one of the liquidity what's the
market cap now 50 million and apparently they have um a load of solana that they're about to
pump back into the chart like they have like uh
brother they have like make your money move to bitcoin 90 percent leave a moon bag sleep tight
oh i'm not i'm not like i'm not throwing this right now they launched seven hours ago
they're at 50 yeah like is this like launch coin 2.0 brother i mean i don't know man like i don't really
get it like well ibrl is just a coin that they're testing but the actual platform is called
something else oh yeah because i remember kobe interacted with this ai thing it was like a purple witch if you remember yeah and i got fucking smoked on it dude um
i forgot what it was called dude but like there were two tokens with the same purple witch thing
or whatever and it basically went down 99 so i don't know man yeah i mean i'm definitely not uh uh endorsing this whatsoever or even
considering like jumping in but i was just mentioning it because it was uh definitely
vamping even though i don't even see like i don't understand how i could have vamped so much because
i i'm not like that impressed with the volume that I'm seeing so far.
It's just because you got, I mean, whenever, whenever Tully like talks about something, it goes crazy, right?
Like collapsing the other day from like 12 mil to 70 in like the snap of a finger.
Anything that these guys touch, man, it's just going to, but then you all, when you, when you have like these bigger guys, like, like Anson, Kobe, kind of, like, you know, putting their two cents in it, it tends to bring a lot of eyes in.
Yeah.
I think from a – I wouldn't touch it from a trading perspective from what I know now, but from just a fundamental perspective, like, looking to see this is an experiment, essentially.
This is an experiment, essentially. If it works, could be pretty good for Solana Eco.
If it works, could be pretty good for Solana Eco.
But, you know, just kind of watching to see what the ripple effects are to see if it does work, how is it going to get integrated?
Where does it get integrated into and things of that nature?
So that's more the interest from me and why I had it on my radar.
But, you know, from just a trading standpoint, it's a meme coin on the
movement basically with it being a test token. But the tech is really, I'm interested to see
where this lands, right? People don't understand a lot of times this entire space is just a big
experiment. Bitcoin was at first until it got proven over years.
Same thing with Ethereum. Now it's battle tested. Obviously, these are bigger player,
bigger assets that we're talking about that have proven themselves, but that's really all it is.
DeFi went through the same thing where it was just a big experiment until we found out, oh, wow,
Aave actually does work.
Curve actually does work. Uniswap actually does work, right?
So I'm just interested to see how this technology develops and how it can be used.
And, you know, that's what the ripple effects are on chain.
Bro, 2.5K, it's going to make 20X, you buy half of Bitcoin and that's it.
Sorry, Matt.
By the way, Matt, we're very old what's up we're very old what is this vamping i know it comes from vampire but
what the fuck it's the vamping is just it's just when look when when one coin takes liquidity from
from everything else like these new terms fuck me. These kids, these Gen Alphas with their hula hoops and their rollerblades and their AI phones.
Speaking of, though, I'm just, I don't know.
I was this year, I was this many years when Bitcoin cracked top five assets by market cap on the planet assets by market cap
not mag seven not no assets my goodness yo yo spread i wanted to ask you a question um so i'm
really thinking that we see an extended cycle moving into let's say like like Q1, Q2, 2026. And I see this kind of like bifurcation between like
on-chain and Bitcoin, like Bitcoin's at all-time highs right now. A lot of on-chain stuff has been
nuking. So like it's not necessarily aligning up perfectly. Sometimes there's a little bit of a lag
effect. Sometimes maybe on-chain jumps ahead. But regardless of whether Bitcoin hits its ultimate
top here in 2025, I do see us, at least on-chain conditions, being somewhat bullish over a longer
period of time based on the ISM business cycle, based on what Donnie was mentioning, the ETH BTC versus DXY chart,
based on the sort of improvement of tokenomics over the last couple of years. We've seen
an emphasis on things like deflationary token models and things of that nature. So I'm just
getting, and then you get to also broader adoption of bitcoin and and other things um so i'm um i'm thinking
are you seeing the same thing in terms of an extended cycle or um you know or are you just
kind of seeing it play out like it classically does bitcoin tops and then drags everything down
so when trump had his tantrums i said that that I'm seeing some nasty shit out there.
And I wrote a thread, got a lot of traction.
I was seeing like the Bank of America recession indicator popping above four, which were some corporate spreads.
So investors were asking for more to hold those.
I was seeing some cracks here and there, and i got tactically bearish just on equities
and obviously about 5 700 i couldn't bitcoin didn't give me any reason to be bearish higher
time frame but once bitcoin reclaimed 92 000 and s&p now reclaimed 5 700 i flip bullish on everything uh however i i i was left with something from that
before all of this drama happened with the tariffs i was thinking you know like i'm gonna like hold
through 2026 for the first quarter second quarter that was my plan however right now my new plan
although i'm 80 in bitcoin and i still have solanaium Injective and still some reminiscences of Mantra.
I'm thinking this year and in the next,
I'm not going to say like a year exactly,
but in the next 14, 16 months,
I'm going to slowly get out of my Alcoin positions.
Most likely I'm going to miss the top.
It's fine.
I'm not hunting bottoms.
I'm not hunting tops.
But this year, gradually, hopefully, if the market gods will allow it,
I'm going to gradually sell up to 80-90% of my altcoins until end of Q1,
beginning of, or maybe Q2 of next year.
Of course, I'm going to also adapt to the market conditions
and maybe we're going to go wilder faster.
But this is my plan man
i want to go out and i want to build a big big cash position um i'm not gonna sell any of my
bitcoin obviously this is a full second cycle so i'm not crazy uh i said also to my guys in
another space if bitcoin goes above 250 i'm also gonna sell a little bit because you know above
250 this cycle or in the next 12 months would mean a lot at least for
for my position but regardless to to come back to what you said i have no idea i mean we're in a
weird phase of the whole markets uh but in the end i still think that the same two big emotions
guide them which is greed and fear so at some point in time beat 2026 in the middle or in the
end i still see some bigger corrections which will take us most likely towards 2028 bottoms forming
etc i can be wrong though but that's why i'm not going to sell all of my altcoins and none of my
bitcoin so i still can ride it out with the people who are more diligent than me and i'm gonna have
some moon bags but this is my plan next 14 16 months i want to get out 80 90 percent out of my altcoins if the market conditions
will allow it got you yeah i'm thinking the same thing i mean although i do see evidence of like
an extended cycle you still got to take incremental profits but um my biggest the biggest thing i flagged so far is that i we haven't seen
that like that broader like greed uh throughout the market yes we've seen like you know memes
and stuff in solana uh get a lot of things on solana go crazy we saw like the ai agent craze
and stuff like that but anytime we've had something like that it's been more of just
uh you know a month or two and then you know that's it versus yeah can i tell you why is that
happening because we do not have the same financial conditions as before so a lot of market participants
in crypto are used with their first cycle which was 2020 and they came after the covid crash whenever i actually i actually i
think they came in the best time possible when federal reserve and all the central banks in the
world they were pumping money left and right in the markets loans were basically free yeah yeah
that that that was just the best condition to be and you could have bought any type of shitter and
in the morning you would have had like 4 or 5x.
Of course, it was not easy to hold them.
We all know what happened in summer 2021.
But all in all, they are not semi-market conditions.
This is what I want to emphasize.
We had lower interest rates.
We had quantitative easing.
And now we have higher interest rates or longer, as you can see.
They didn't cut for a while.
And I don't think they're going to cut until September.
Who knows, maybe even further.
And we have quantitative tightening.
So right now, I still think that we are more into quality than quantity.
I still think Bitcoin is going to, and that's why I'm positioned so heavy in Bitcoin.
So I think we're going to have still, how can I say it, sector seasons or rotation seasons rather than broader altcoin seasons.
And that's why traditional markets, we call it stock pickers markets.
I still think this is going to be the case going forward.
Bitcoin is going to lead.
That's why Bitcoin is going to be like biggest chunk in my portfolio.
And we're going to have pockets of strength and rotation between those pockets of strength i've kind of just i
kind of have the same idea as well i kind of refer to like periods of risk on and risk off
i guess that's kind of similar to your the stock picker um uh you know type of market vibes that
you're talking about um but yeah like i'm also kind of playing this as though,
hey, look, I'm no longer just waiting on this magical alt season just to,
you know, and all of a sudden, magically,
all of our bags will go up at the same time.
You know, maybe it does come at some point, maybe, you know,
when ETH does start really showing its strength and everything,
maybe that does happen at some point.
But so far, it's been these pockets of outperformance,
like you mentioned, where they're at risk on.
So like a November, December, where AI agents,
anything with AI agent in the name went to like 200 million plus.
That's kind of where I'm positioning myself to be able to kind of play these narratives during risk on, kind of take profits, build a healthy stable coin position, wait for a risk off time period for everything to reset, and then just go at it again and just rinse, wash and repeat over and over.
And that's kind of how I'm going to play the rest of the cycle.
And if it does prove to be extended, like I think then, you know, over to over time of,
you know, round one, two, three, four of this risk on risk off rotation, you know, hopefully,
you know, by the end of it all, I build a decent, decent enough stable coin position.
That's really the goal right now.
But yeah, thanks for your thoughts, man.
I was really curious because I know you look at a lot of the, you look at a lot of like
macro factors and everything, as well as a few others on the panel.
And I've always liked your takes and everything.
like your takes and everything.
So I appreciate your perspective on that.
So appreciate your perspective on that.
Chill, I posted a post that I had up this morning
in the nest, if you want to read it.
It's just a thought-provoking post about this cycle
that you might like if you read it.
But I just wanted to add to that.
I really do think if ETH BTC reclaims 0.03,
that you're going to see absolutely every single coin rally.
Not really kind of this stock picker market, in my opinion. I think it was a very big telltale from the bottom when we had that ETH BTC bounce and ETH reclaim a very key structural level on the chart that everything is going to rally if there is continuation of this trend.
level in the chart that everything is going to rally if there's continuation of this trend.
And you literally saw like rugged charts all on chain recover, you know, three, four, five,
10, 15 X off the lows. So yeah, I think if you do get that reclaim on ETH BTC and then the broader
macro cycle unfolding, how I think it's going to unfold, I think everything will go up. Sure,
you'll have some things that will go up more than others. They're just better, quote unquote, assets in
crypto. They're more attractive. They're going to go up higher, but I think everything will go up.
And that's like, I'm looking forward to that time and I really want that to come.
It's just so far I've seen, um, and I guess this is just
the market, you know, catching people offside, right.
I've seen a lot of these like OG 2017 guys that really rely on, uh, these alt seasons
to, you know, for their portfolios to outperform.
But, you know, up until now, it's really been a trader's market, a rotation, uh, rotations
market where, you know, it's, uh's I just posted about this the other day.
And also I'll read that post that you have on top.
I just bookmarked it, actually.
But I posted about this the other day where I said, you know, it's now the trading in crypto is almost like it's the pump funification of crypto, like where, you know, it's all rotations.
People all think short term.
So that's why you're having all these PVP games.
And so now slow cooks on chain where, you know, things take, you know, months and months and months to, you know, see any sort of like any sort of like face melting, you know, upside candles,
you know, that becomes unbearable to wait for. And so people are just stuck in this short term
game where the expectation is 100x overnight. But the reality is, you know, 100x over like
six to 12 months, if you're able to literally buy and do absolutely nothing. So yeah, man,
I'm really hoping for that altcoin season. But the way I'm positioning now is I have
basically like a hodl portfolio where I literally just hold these tokens and I don't do anything
with them. But then I also have like a trading portfolio that's, you know, some is perps,
some is on chain. And, you know, I'm active in the market and I, you know, some is perps, some is on chain and, you know, I'm active in the market
and I, you know, I just kind of take a look at these. So whether it's risk on and risk off or
whether it's just, you know, magical altcoin season where everything, you know, goes straight
up, you know, I'm hoping that that's the case, especially with, I'm seeing a lot of this talk
around treasuries not being as credible as they were before.
And, you know, money printing and all that stuff.
I mean, like spread was saying, you know, we've been in a different regime this whole time.
Fed has been cutting rates for the most part of the cycle where, you know, it's only now that they pause.
You know, it's only now that they pause and, you know, what happens when they finally do start to cut, when that actually filters through the economy and funnels into and all that capital finds a risk in crypto.
I think it's going to be a beautiful time.
I think I see a lot of really good narratives.
I see a lot of, you know, Web 2 guys coming in to build in Web3. So I see this kind of shaking of hands with traditional builders,
traditional investors, traditional, you know, the TradFi guys. I see the shaking of hands with them
and Web3. And, you know, maybe that means they come in, they build. Maybe that means they come
in and they invest or what have you. But, you know, I do think that that will that would just
you know mean tons of gains on chain especially with a lot of these kind of uh newer tokenomics
that aren't relying on sentiment or more reliant on you know growth of these uh these business
models and revenue streams so if you if you want another indicator for a potential alt season
or let's just say more altcoins running,
open trading view, write IWM, so the Russell 2000,
and put the resistance, I think it's around 212, 213.
And when you see IWM rallying above that area
and going towards 225, you know that most likely also the the alts the altcoins
are going to look good and if you want to understand even why you can put iwm take the
linear chart and add pepe on top of it and see how correlated actually they were in the last
i'll say two three months so chart russell 2000 and when rus Russell 2000 is going to run, go to about 212 and 225, most likely we're also going to see more risk on and most likely altcoins are also going to have a better time.
because of that, the James guy had like, I don't remember,
like he had like a huge on-chain position on Hyperliquid.
And I think he just got hunted and he's going to get hunted.
I mean, we are at all-time high and someone gives to the market makers
what, like hundreds of millions in like a visible position.
They're going to take that money for sure. So I think one of the biggest reasons why we dropped is he was up like 17 million or
something and now he's down like six, seven million.
That's a huge, huge position.
And if I know something about market makers, they're going to do their best to take some
of that piece of cake from there.
So IWM and take a look at what that guy is doing
because once he's going to be cleared one way or the other most likely we're going to have clearer
conditions and about the fed cutting one more thing because before i'm going to pass the mic
rate cuts or rate hikes are never bearish or bullish it always depends on the context but
especially rate cuts so rate cuts they are not bearish or bullish. It always depends on the context, but especially rate cuts.
So rate cuts, they are not bearish or bullish.
They depend on the context.
If we have a rate cut because of a recession,
it's extremely bearish.
The recovery takes six to 12 months.
If we have a rate cut because of a panic,
like it was COVID,
we have a big drop and usually it takes two, three, four months
for the recovery.
If we have a red cut because
of normalization that's very bullish and we just go higher i just wanted to add this context
spread what do you think if the fed adjusts their inflation target
um yeah you and then what's the follow-up question?
I mean, okay, they adjust the inflation target end.
To, let's say, like 3% or higher for, you know, maybe for 2026.
And you mean for a potential move from them?
Like to cut faster or something?
Just to adjust that, right?
Do you think it would be bullish?
Yeah, why not?
No, not right now.
Not now. Not now. No, he said for 2020. Yeah, yeah. Because we're below it.
Yeah, we're below it. That wouldn't be bullish.
What are they going to do to artificially pump
inflation? Because we're below 3%
right now. I wonder if they're going to
accommodate
Trump and the administration this cycle, what they want to do.
I mean, depends on...
Congress sets
their mandate.
They would need Congress
to tell them
it's not 2%, it's not 3%.
Guys, the final boss
is the bond market.
And we all saw it immediately when
how Trump and the administration got
spoked best and all of them when
the 10-year just went all
over the place.
For me,
inflation or no inflation,
all of these are just, I don't know,
some more backdrops.
I'm looking at the price in general
like higher time frames and i'm looking at the bond market and for now for example i don't see
any cuts june or july happening i know it sounds crazy but the the short term shows rather a hike
because like the three months is above the actual federal fund rates. I know it sounds crazy.
Most likely they're not going to hike.
It's just an anomaly because of what happened recently with the treasuries.
But there is no hike.
There is no cut for June.
And I don't think it's going to be for July.
In March, in one of the spaces, I said that the first cut, in my opinion,
just a wild guess or a prediction is going to be September.
So I don't see anything changing until then.
But again, we don't need cuts.
Actually, people who are calling for a cut in the last two months,
they were asking for trouble.
Because if Federal Reserve would have made a move in the last two months
and they would have cut, that was bearish.
Because the context was in a bad position.
I mean, why would Federal Reserve cut?
Those bonds would go no bid.
That's the problem with this,
that a lot of, let's just say,
retail or newcomers to the markets,
they don't understand.
You can cut Fed funds rate,
but that doesn't mean you're going to find
more buyers of that debt,
especially if you're talking about tariffs for this and tariffs for that and embargoes for this or that. You're
not creating new buyers of US debt when people don't know what the heck's going to happen tomorrow.
So that's the insidious. Right now, you know that the Fed isn't going to cut rates because they can't find enough buyers for, look at the two-year treasury, look at the 10-year treasury.
No one's buying, no one's mass buying these bonds at these rates.
That's why treasuries are at 4%, 4.5%.
So they can't cut.
The market sets the rate in real time every single day.
The market sets the rate in real time every single day.
And because treasurers are trading at this yield right now,
that tells you no one's interested in a 3% or a 2% bond.
Barely this many people want a 4% bond.
Do you think that Trump's deals with the Saudis and Qatar, etc., had anything in relation with bonds?
Matt?
Maybe. I don't know. I think it was just like, hey, let's make deals.
Let's get the deals as big as possible.
More deals equals better economy.
It's probably just that simple.
And keeping oil
down so it keeps the general public
units happy for the midterms?
Yeah.
Yeah, all things.
You know, Saudi, the Arab Peninsula wants Yeah, all things.
Saudi, the Arab Peninsula wants something out of it too.
So like, okay, fine, we're going to sign these deals for this and that,
AI investments and defense spending and stuff.
What do we get out of it? And it's us telling them, do what you want with oil production.
And if you are pumping so much oil that U.S. domestic manufacturers take it on the chin, well, that's just, you know, we'll eat that.
That's just the price of doing business.
Like, that's one thing.
growing up in Texas and Oklahoma, they don't love what's happening right now. A lot of those oil
Growing up in Texas and Oklahoma, they don't love what's happening right now.
rigs are shutting off as you're flirting with prices below $70, $65, $60 a barrel of oil.
That means pumping oil in large parts of Oklahoma and northern Texas is unprofitable. So they're
shutting that off right now. So the Arab Peninsula, they'll keep pumping oil at those prices all day long.
So they don't mind.
Even though the price of oil is down, they're actually gaining worldwide customers.
So it's a little nuanced.
But I think big picture, the administration is just trying to, like, look, more deals, bigger deals, more equals better economy.
They're just keeping it simple or trying to at least.
Yeah, thanks for that.
Let's see some of the speakers if they want to chime in.
Ragsy?
yeah i was like i like listening to the different uh perspectives because obviously i'm very biased
toward where i put my money but yeah i like listening to it i was just um at the crypto
summit that they had in new york um a lot of important people regarding the stablecoin legislation.
I heard one of you guys bring it up earlier. And yeah, just like a number of important issues.
I think that from what I gathered, I mean, this bull run is going to be good. I think this is truly, this bull run we're in right now, might actually be not the last bull run, but the real last bull run.
This was the cycle where I feel like you really had to be in.
Because I don't think after this bull run, I do feel like regulation is going to come after this bull run for the next one.
And I think that it's not going to be the same.
And like as it has been all these past cycles.
But yeah, I mean, I'm excited to see Bitcoin a new all time high.
I think we got a ways to go. I've kind of been just paying attention to
the Fed and different policies coming in to see if it how much it will like,
throw off price targets. I try not to, like make a target far in advance, especially this cycle,
because it's different, there's different variables this cycle that we did not have last
cycle. But for example, in 2023, I was doing like my price
targets for Bitcoin and like laying out the groundwork for how I thought this cycle was
going to play out. And then getting that first BlackRock ETF for Bitcoin threw off my charting
entirely. And Bitcoin ended up hitting its all time high before the halving, which has never happened.
So this cycle, I've kind of just been paying attention to the trends.
And I think that we will get an altcoin season, but I kind of agreed.
I think somebody had said it up here.
of what you guys were talking about, I do think the alt season will be different. Like, I think
I forget who it was, but it's kind of like a combination of what you guys were talking about. I do think the alt season will be different.
the marketing of the narratives, like everything is going to have its, its turn. Like things will
always pump together when the markets are pumping. But I think like, AI is going to be hot for a
quick second. And then it's going to be something else you know it'll be like government use of
of whatever chains like last cycle was all layer ones right it was like layer one layer one layer
one it was like the gold rush for layer one i think it it like the whole market will go up
together but i think like as the narratives rotate with allcoins, I feel like you're better off rotating,
or for me, rotating the alts
because I think they're going to juggle narratives.
So I don't think it's just like,
oh, you're safe with AI.
So like I bought all my AI alts in 2023.
I sold them Q1 of 2024
and that was an excellent decision
because I didn't know who was going to win the election. So I'm like, okay, well, if Kamala wins the election, I don't know if we're going to get
this big blow off, you know, bang at the end of, at the end of this quarter here. Right. So that,
that originally like was the, was the top rock. So that was a good sell. Then Trump got reelected.
The markets kind of boomed at the end there. So I think like, I think everything's going to have its turn. Like,
I think there's a big opportunity if you rotate, like you're, you're, you're in AI, and then it's
over. And then I think it's going to be something else. I think the big winner in the end is going
to be government uses of these, of the chains that they choose and big institutions.
I think because Bitcoin had a tweet a few days ago that I retweeted about JP Morgan
using Lincoln ondo like out of nowhere.
I think things like that are going to be the big winners at the very end.
But I do think the alt narratives are going to rotate similar to how like the meme narratives have been rotating.
And I agree with you. I mean, we're in a phase of my thesis for this cycle has been that we are in the like the steepest part of S-curve adoption for not just Bitcoin, but just crypto in general.
Bitcoin, but just crypto in general, as Bitcoin gets adopted, like you mentioned, like with the
ETFs and everything, as institutions become more and more aware of not only what they can do with
Bitcoin, but also what they can do on chain, what they can build with the technology. I think you'll
definitely start to see, you know, some of these winners get picked. And we saw a little bit of
that with the stable coin bill when things were,
I think it was called the Genius Act. I haven't read the most into it, but from what I do
understand about it, it was bullish for a few of these assets. And that's why a lot of things ripped,
things like Kida and Curve and Aave, they were, they were really, they were, you know,
it was really bullish for those assets.
So like as this, you know,
market kind of gets regulation around it
as guardrails are built around it,
I think it's going to be bullish for certain assets.
And I think we've all agreed on that at one point.
You know what's also bullish for?
For assets
and for coins, which I still have.
I think I got a call there. Am I back now?
Yeah, we can hear you.
Watch Monero
because if everything comes
regulated, privacy coins
might fly.
The issue with, like, so Monero,
like, by far the best privacy coin it seems bullish the one thing
i'm scared especially here in the united states is like they kind of did um tornado cash dirty
last bull run i mean one one of them's still at large they haven't caught them they threw the
other guys you know i i feel like there could be a Silk Road kind of situation with that.
I'm not saying it's fair or unfair.
And that might hinder it.
But it doesn't mean the technology is ever going to stop.
So it's kind of like...
Well, Rags, I want to ask you something.
But if the United States government goes against
