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Market Talk- BTC new lows incoming?! Stock market crash soon?!
Recorded: Feb. 23, 2026 Duration: 1:48:00Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the current volatility in both crypto and equity markets, highlighting significant trends and potential growth opportunities. Key topics included the impact of geopolitical events on market dynamics, the need for strategic shifts in investment approaches, and the potential for Bitcoin to reach new highs despite recent declines.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Oh, my God. Oh ah
is I want to stick out. I want to rock. I want to roll it all.
I want to roll it all.
I want to roll it all.
I want to roll it all.
I want to roll it all.
I want to roll it all.
I want to roll it all.
I want to roll it all.
I want to roll it all.
I want to roll it all.
I want to roll it all. I want to roll it all. I Oh
You can't read I'm going to go. Oh! I'm going to go. Thanks. Music Thank you. I'm going to go to the next one. We'll be right back. I you Hey. Yo, what's up, guys?
Evan, what's going on?
Hey, what's up, brother?
Guys, welcome back to Market Talk, brought to you by BB. I hope you all had a fantastic weekend.
I hope your week is off to a great start.
Or maybe it's Tuesday for some of you, for some of you in a different time zone than myself.
But insane start to the week.
Volatility across the board, not only in crypto, but also in equities.
We have the Qs and also the equities we have the cues and also
the s&p about the test critical support and uh now i'm kind of wondering what is going to happen
to crypto should the s&p and the cues make new lows or even something that we've been dubiously
speculating on what if they repeat the same same thing that we were experiencing around this time last year,
where stocks seemed to be treading in chop,
and then they made one high, a deviation high, after the inauguration.
And then we had probably the most volatile week that markets had in a very long time.
From late February all the way to early April, the volatility to the downside was something that I don't think markets saw in decades, really.
You're talking about a decline on the S&P and the Nasdaq that was over 20 percent
and uh weeks later you had the biggest reversal from uh from decline all the way to upside
uh since COVID I think the recovery from that decline was even faster than COVID by a multitude of weeks same thing with um with crypto we had a uh we had a i think it was 33 to
35 percent decline from top to bottom from 110 and change all the way to 72 73 and within three
to four weeks i think btc made a uh an all-time high although it was marginal it was still an
all-time high but we are seeing some
equity weakness i think if we do break these levels you you actually are going to see um
majors start to feel it you're you're starting to see it on solana i think that's probably going to
be the signal and um something that we've said on the show is that you have a lot of these DAG companies that effectively got a lot of these altcoins, whether it's ETH, whether it's Sol or Hype, and they borrowed against them to gamble on majors, on perps, and some of these other other DeFi platforms and they just create this infinite
loop of leverage similar to what we saw in the previous previous having cycle the 2020 having
cycle where you would see these funds in these exchanges they would effectively use their capital
to go on these leverage loop sprees they would borrow against their alts and then use that to get majors
and borrow against their majors.
Or the other way around,
they would use their BTC and borrow against it
and do the same thing with the altcoins they borrowed.
And it's just this infinite loop of casino gambling.
And we're starting to see some of that kind of retest range lows and
Q1 is probably one of the most volatile quarters whether it's a bull market or a bear market there
is some volatility and typically going into March we kind of already expect what's going to happen for uh for at least the short at least the short term
and i think if you get one more low on solana oh my gosh man if we actually break 67 dollars
i'm not sure where that thing is going to land but my assumption would be just below 50
um there is some support at just below $50 for Seoul.
And as far as hype, man, if you get that thing in the teens, I think that's a good long-term buy.
But you're even starting to see hype break down.
And just going on on-chain, there's kind of the same thing that's been going on and on and on since the start of the year.
And it's these small pockets of attention in january we saw the penguin and now you have uh punch the monkey and you'll you're
always going to have some ai slop trends um that lobster token has been trending somewhat but
the ceilings on this on these things just get smaller and smaller and smaller and smaller.
And it really started last year.
Last spring, after we bottomed out, we saw things that in previous years would have gone to billions.
Things like LaunchCoin, Useless, MetaDAO as well.
And I mean, even Aster probably would have gone into like the top 20 if it launched in 2024.
And all these tokens effectively had capped ceilings and since that since that time period the ceilings have been
getting lower and lower and lower and lower and lower um even white whale token probably would
have gone to like a bill if it launched in 2024 so it's kind of this euthanasia roller coaster and
do you actually need to see things like sold and eth form higher time frame uptrends or
at least show some signal of momentum of momentum kicking in um usually at bottoms it's quite boring
and there's not much to do but thankfully on chain is always going to have some opportunities, even if the ceilings really are pathetic.
And as we've discussed on the show, a lot of these ceilings, they tend to happen within the first few days that these tokens end up trending.
But funny enough, you actually do have some stocks at all-time highs one of them being coca-cola outside of that I'm not sure I'm not sure what other stock is
trading at all-time highs but I do see some people some pretty smart people
that are interested in accumulating some some uranium stocks this month a lot of these
stocks like for example there's the yeah I think it's Evan the one that Evan
likes you you you you that's been consolidating for a few weeks so now one
thing I will say is that like I don't think whatever downside is incoming is going to last until Q4.
That's one thing that I think a lot of people have wrong.
It's like a lot of people have this agreement that, all right, if it's going to be short-term downside or whatever, it has to last until Q4.
And I don't really think that's the case base case has
always been um right as powell leaves office at best and um i think people are thinking way too
much about this wars thing being extremely hawkish i know evan has talked about um some of the things
that people have said about wars and i really think that's just a bunch of noise but uh got
some people up here that's kind of my opening my opening statement um i loaded up on some of my
protein supplements and uh you guys already know what it is it's carnivore cookies and cream and
five percent nutrition they're bc double a's mango, and also MHP Dark Matter, which is a post-workout mix.
And that's pretty much it.
That's pretty much it as far as the supplement stuff.
that stuff i think um if you're in these markets and you find yourself bored
uh i think doing some things outside of just staring at staring at charts um i think training
just doing anything physical if you're able-bodied is uh is a tremendous amount of value that helps
you maintain your edge so we're gonna go ahead and get started guys you guys already know spaces are recorded feel
free to share the spaces click the spaces tab link is up above like repost all that stuff um
i see uncle mike joined us so i'm sure it's gonna be uh pretty cool catching up with him
um i'll pass it over to him first uncle mike what's going on man how have you been um the last uh the
last couple of weeks man it's great to have you yeah good been um the last uh the last couple of weeks man
it's great to have you yeah good good um i've got a little bit of a cold i've got two little kids
they're one and almost three and when your kids get sick uh and you're like they're like slobbering
on you and you're hugging them and putting in the bed and loving them right you tend to get sick too
but it's kind of worth it right like if you're gonna get sick from something it might as well be
from your your beautiful young children.
But I actually think this is the least boring market
in at least five years.
I think there's more dispersion,
there's more opportunity.
Now, I think the average person
tends to look at a market like this
and say this is either boring or depressing.
And because I'm looking out a year to three years at a time
from any point along the curve, I like markets like this because markets like this looking out a year to three years at a time from any point along the curve
i like markets like this because markets like this is where a year or two or three years from
now you look back and say holy shit that was actually the time of maximum opportunity um and
so look i'm i'm looking at the market right now like under the surface there's been tremendous
rotation uh in the equity market this year like people will be like oh well the small cap index is up or the sap is up a little bit or whatever but like under the
surface it's been pretty cataclysmic you've got a pretty large rotation out of some of the high
beta names as well as anything that touches like ai disruption so anything that's disrupted
directly by ai has sort of been in the path. And then anything that's a direct input to that AI
disruption has tended to do okay. And so like on a day like today, you just see a lot of software
stocks, for example, getting clobbered. But very quietly, even though the major indices are down,
the AI data center stocks were quietly showing strength. And you've seen a lot of markers like
this over the last few weeks
which tells me it's just a normal functioning healthy market i i don't understand this sort
of mass psychosis around ai is going to destroy everything and this is 2022 and or right like this
is uh the end of the crypto cycle and so we have to go down until November, December. I'm pretty sure pretty much all of those things are wrong. You know, I'm not going to bet my
entire future on that idea, but I'm continuing to add to the stuff that I think will actually
have a pretty major rally. This doesn't feel nearly as bad to me as March, April last year.
This just feels like a normal repricing risk, repricing event, a little bit of a growth scare, and then a larger rotation.
I pointed this out before, but year to date, like the materials sector, right, the transportation sector, the staples, the utility,
like basically all the sectors of the S&P that were overlooked or ignored or largely disappointed over the last five years, they're starting to perform.
I think Staples is
having its best start to this year maybe ever and I if you looked at my 13f or you heard me
talking over the last couple quarters I've been loading up on exactly the names that were the
most out of favor coming into this year so I'm feeling pretty good about things because I've got
a lot of stuff that's up a lot that I've been trimming down like I've been trimming constellation
brands I trimmed constellation brands quite aggressively after it went on a big run from like 128 to
160 something.
And I trimmed it down and I've been rotating that back into Bitcoin, Bitcoin proxies, AI
related stocks, etc.
Because, you know, the whole reason why I own them was to provide the ballast for when,
you know, I wanted to buy more of the
stuff that I think has a better, call it one, two, three-year trajectory from here. I'm pretty
confident Ethereum will beat Constellation Brands or Diageo or Pepsi, for example, over the next
year or two. There may be months this year where you'll much more prefer to own Pepsi than Ethereum
because Pepsi will be up when Ethereum is down. This this year today, Ethereum is down 30% or whatever, and Pepsi is up 15%.
So of course, with the benefit of hindsight, you would have preferred to own only Pepsi
and new Ethereum.
The problem is, of course, it's impossible to know when the relative outperformance will
flip.
And so what I do instead of trying to guess is I always have stuff like Pepsi in the
portfolio, and I try to buy it like it was over the last couple quarters
when it was deeply out of favor.
And people said GLP-1s were going to cause people
to never drink soda and never have snacks.
And, you know, RFK is going to kill the snack industry.
I mean, it's always bullshit, right?
The narratives.
They come on real strong and it's like,
it's so binary.
It's like either people are going to eat tons of snacks
and get fat and drink a lot of sugar or they're not going to drink at all. And it's like, no, binary. It's like either people are going to eat tons of snacks and get fat, um, and drink a lot
of sugar or they're not going to drink at all.
And it's like, no, like that's just not the way the world works.
Right.
What happens is the narrative causes the valuations to swing, uh, oscillate from one side to the
other.
And your job as investors to simply pick out where you are along that oscillation.
So I picked out staples in particular coming into the end of last year as being deeply
undervalued and the narratives being deeply negative. And I stocked up on them, pun intended.
And now I have a bunch of stuff that I'm trimming back down. So I've been trimming Constellation,
Diageo, Pepsi, et cetera, and rotating back here because I want to own more Bitcoin in the 60s.
Even if it goes to the 50s, I don't really care.
All this noise about it could go a lot lower.
I just don't care, right?
Because I have a view that Bitcoin within the next two to three years is going to be
300k at least, maybe 500, maybe more.
And when it flips positive again and when you have positive reflexivity, what will happen
is everyone will pretend like they were never bearish during the key buying opportunity.
So the great illusion of Twitter and X is that all these people who are basically Momo traders, primarily using charts and indicators, that they're always only long stocks when they're going up.
And they're always either short or not in those stocks when they're going down.
And anybody who actually trades in size, like who's actually a professional investor, knows that's complete idiocy.
Like it's impossible to do that. If you actually try to achieve that, you'll get chopped
up and net of taxes, you'll end up much poorer. There's a reason why like the guys are actually
very rich and very wealthy from markets. Don't sound like these charts, Quigler, kid analysts
that are, that are active in these spaces. Um, because it actually requires large sizing
concentration and some time.
It requires some duration.
You have to take a directional bet,
or if you're not going to take a directional bet,
you probably need to do something that's completely systematic.
But a lot of the stuff I see in here is neither of those.
It's just in and out trading based on moving averages and RSI and indicators.
And from my perspective, that stuff doesn't actually yield tremendous long-term wealth on a compounded basis. So that's what I'm focused on. I really don't think much has changed.
The narratives have turned quite dark and quite negative, but from my perspective,
the opportunity set is still there. I still think the two to three-year opportunity is
fundamentally about crypto slash Bitcoin slash stable coins
on one end. And then on the other end, things like AI data centers, where you're not
taking a bet on whether Anthropic kills everything. You're just taking a bet on whether
anyone wants to compete with Anthropic. Because if anyone wants to compete with Anthropic,
they're going to need compute, they're going to need power, they're going to need data centers.
And those stocks, funny enough, are not actually trading in huge multiples, particularly the ones that pivoted in from outside of the space. And I think it's about timing,
because CoreWeave pivoted out because Ethereum became a proof-of-stake protocol from proof-of-work,
so it forced them to pivot into AI earlier. People forget that now. They think CoreWeave was always
an AI compute provider. They're not a particularly skilled company in anything really, but they were just there early.
And so people think it's somehow materially different or better than people who pivoted in later.
And in my view, some of the companies who pivoted in later are significantly more skilled.
But the market, again, is pricing them based on what it knows, not based on necessarily the actual fundamentals of the situation. So yeah, it's been kind of a wild year because if you look back a year from now,
MSDR and Marathon and some of the bellwethers for crypto are down substantially,
you know, 50 plus percent.
Bitcoin is down 50 plus percent off the highs.
In a lot of ways, it's a run-of-the-mill seeming bear market.
But actually, investors who position correctly across in a
diversified way across a number of things related to bitcoin and ai are still actually up right and
are still actually did really well since 2023 and what i what i was saying earlier today to somebody
was it's wild if you can actually still be up a year to date on a year like now, because if Bitcoin's compressed down to 60 or 64K,
and you're still managing between diversification into unrelated equities
or AI data centers or sectors that are still up year to date,
if you're holding near flatline right now and Bitcoin does turn,
which even if it just has a bounce in the spring where it goes up 30%, 40%, 50%,
my suspicion is you're going to get a pretty fierce counter trend rally that could turn
into a longer term move.
But even if it doesn't, you're going to be up substantially if you're not already down.
And my view of the last three years was like basically in order to like hold a name like
iron from $1 to $75, you had to take three or four drawdowns of 50%.
But if you manage to do that, you're sitting in a nice place right now.
You're up substantially over the last three years, irrespective of what Bitcoin did during
that window or the short-term moves.
And I think we're back in sort of a similar situation now where if you want to get queued
around trying to predict when Bitcoin is going to bottom, specifically, you can try to do
that.
I'm not trying to do that.
I'm just going to keep buying more
using the proceeds from names like Diageo and Constellation
that are actually stayed quite firm here today
because they're in demand right now, right?
Like Q3, Q4 last year, they were out of favor.
And Q1 of this year, they're in favor.
It's the story as old as time, right?
It's just about finding places
where you can generate some excess return.
And then when you think those moves have gone too far, you can rotate back into something else.
So that's what I'm thinking and that's what I'm doing here today.
Mike, are you looking at things like Solana and Hype?
I know you bought some ETH a few years ago at like $200 to $300.
Is there anything else in crypto that interests you,
or are you just sticking to things like ETH outside of BTC
and some of these other proxy names like an MSTR?
I'm just trying to keep it clean and simple
because as a single manager, I don't work with anyone else.
I don't have any other PMs or analysts or anybody that I work with.
So there's only so many thematics I can really track and so many companies and so many tokens.
And so what happens is when things are working really well, like when I'm having a huge up year,
sometimes I'll take additional bets like I did at the end of last year.
At the time I bought Sue EG or
whatever last year and Sharpling, I was up 400%. By the time the year ended, I was up 230%. By the
time the year ended, those stocks were no longer in the portfolio because I just don't have the
bandwidth to manage them closely enough to actually track them if they're not working.
That's where we are now. I'm very confident that bitcoin and ethereum will be higher in two three years and that's my
at any given point in time that is my time horizon so if an idea has less of a time horizon than two
or three years it's going to get cut quite quickly uh if it doesn't just immediately work
right whereas something that is going to just stay around like cypher or iron for two or three years i have to have a pretty deep fundamental conviction you know in some cases i
have to be on the board of the company because that's the only way i'm willing to hold 20 million
dollars of the stock for example right so right now for crypto it's basically just uh bitcoin
ibit calls uh ethereum trust spot ethereum again this is across a couple different accounts that i have
that i manage and then recently i added 100 000 shares of bitmine immersion which you know i'm
down whatever 30 on right i'm down the largest decliners in my entire portfolio right now are
bitmine immersion and strive but i'm actually not really worried about either of them because to me
they're actually just binary bets on ethereum and bitcoin being higher and again because my time horizon is two
to three years and i don't think either of them are uh like a risk of a of a zero outcome in the
short term right like their balance sheets are fine like they'll be able to survive however long
the spare market goes and so i want to use this type of environment to keep averaging down in
those names and there's
still like bitmine immersion probably represents about one percent maybe a little less maybe a
little more of my portfolio and strive represents like three percent so people will like look at my
tweets and they'll be like oh mike's losing money in strive and it's like well yeah like i'm down
30 40 on strive on three percent of my portfolio but I have 50% of my portfolio on Cypher, and it's actually still up year-to-date.
It's up 300% over the last year.
There's a lot of low sophistication analysis where people are thinking in a vacuum or they're thinking about one position at a time.
And the reality is if you're a professional money manager, your focus is on the full portfolio,
right? You're looking at your factors and exposures across everything that you hold
and you're trying to hit for high slugging percentage. So when you do get something correct,
you're not trying to get it correct small, like with small ball trading in and out and just
capturing small moves. Like with Cypher, i was trying to make a hundred million dollars in three years right and i more or less did that right with
bitmine immersion maybe i'm only trying to make five or ten but i want to make five or ten over
the next year or two right and so i'll sit on a hundred thousand share position and start to go
my way i might add it up to two hundred thousand and then i'm trying to capture, you know, 5, 10, 20, 30 bucks, move on it.
And when I think Ethereum gets too excited and too hot again,
which it will probably in the next few years,
then I'll be looking to trim that down and rotate back to stuff
that is out of favor at that time.
That could be healthcare.
That could be staples.
That could be railroads.
Like, actually, Canada Pacific's been one of my best performers here today again
stock that nobody in crypto would ever even look at but I liked it at the end of last year and I
liked that nobody else liked it um bought eight or nine million dollars worth of it and and it's
done really well you're in it it's totally behaving completely differently than crypto
so I try to think of crypto in the context of the broader equity market opportunity set,
as opposed to just in a vacuum. If I was a crypto trader and I had to choose from 100 different crypto tokens,
I think that's been a really tough thing to do over the last three years.
But that's not really what I do.
So I'm just thinking about it a little bit differently.
Hey, Mike, on that topic, I have a question.
How do you exactly come to your and like when you take profits like generally just wondering do you just go based off if you like feel something
is too overvalued or undervalued or obviously too overvalued or like what's your thesis behind how
you take profits i mean i have for my biggest positions i when i buy like because i bought
seven million shares of cypher between a dollar and two dollars right for example in the spring
of 2023 you can look at the chart there. It was a really
tough time to be buying that stock because there was no volume. There's a lot of drawdowns. There's
a lot of negativity. But I had a view that was two to three years that it was eventually going
to be a $30 to $50 stock when it was a dollar. And I had a view that Iron was eventually going
to be a $200 stock when it was trading with a dollar. So in both cases, I piled into those names in 2023 when they're deeply out of favor.
And those targets were developed based on my initial assessment of the market sizing
opportunity for large-scale power and infrastructure devoted to some combination of Bitcoin,
synthetic biology, high-frequency trading, and AI.
Keeping in mind that ChatGPT came out in 2022.
I was tracking that right out of the gate, right?
Because I've been in technology for a long time.
I started two software companies.
So I didn't come to that late.
Like a lot of people got interested in Anthropic and ChatGPT like last year or even the year
before.
Like we were talking about it in Iran.
We were talking about AI way back in 2021 and even earlier
right and so um in those cases i had a view that was like more of a three four five six seven year
view when i took those positions and so i'm still tracking towards that and of course iron went from
a dollar to 75 and back to 30 and up to up to down up to 60 and then down to 28 and it'll keep doing
that right it'll go wherever it goes um But when I continue to resize that opportunity,
it actually looks bigger every few months when I look at it.
The same with Cypher.
So for those, I have to keep adjusting them
because my initial price targets were based on my view of the world
three years ago, and that view is evolving.
For some of the smaller positions that I put on,
among the constellation of positions that I put on,
some of those will be more fluid and flexible
because I may be willing to sell earlier
if my conviction has gone down
or if I don't have the same view as I did a year earlier.
So for smaller positions,
that'll evolve to some degree based on sentiment
and positioning and some of these other factors
that have nothing to do with fundamentals.
Certainly if a position runs up 300 and in six months or something like some of these
stocks do in crypto you should be willing as a professional to trim those down and rotate them
because usually you're going to get mean reversion even if you're right about the long-term fundamentals
and so it's not a bad idea to either trim them or sell calls against them or whatever. But I just am really careful
about selling calls against long-term positions because what tends to happen is you get some of
your long-term shares sort of called away periodically, and that may not be optimal
if you have a view that these stocks are going a lot higher.
And by the way, guys, I brought up Hyperliquid.
If you compare their revenue against the NASDAQ, in 2025, they made about 850 mil in total rev, and the NASDAQ made just over 5 bill.
And just from that comparison, if Hyperliquid actually continues to increase in usage and volume and users and all that stuff, that puts Hyperliquid at almost $200 per token.
And you have that one guy, I always forget his name, but he's some boomer, tradify guy.
He went on Bloomberg and he gave this huge thesis for it when it was trading
at like $13, $15. And I thought it would be a great idea to bring that up to Mike because
if two cycles ago, the thesis for something like ETH would be decentralized finance, right?
You also had things like Aave and Compound and all that stuff.
And now the narrative is the tokenization of things.
The thing that's happening right now for that is hyperliquid.
You had a lot of people trading commodities on hyperliquid
with real volume, like not this.
That only lasts a couple of days like no this thing is this thing is is is is actually onboarding people from trad fi
to crypto and they didn't even do a raise it's all community driven like hey can i make one more
comment because i gotta i haven't had any lunch today.
I wasn't planning on working that hard today because I'm trying to get over this cold my kids gave me.
But I just, look, I think the problem with crypto
the last three or four years is for whatever reason,
there has not been the appropriate liquidity
that's required to go out on the risk curve beyond Bitcoin.
Like Bitcoin's gotten the lion's share of the flows.
It's dominated the ETF game. It's gotten the lion's share of the flows.
It's dominated the ETF game.
It's dominated the crypto treasury game.
And for that reason, it's actually gone up, even in a time where I would argue we've actually been in a prolonged bear market.
And so I'm not sure what changes it.
I think my argument now, and again, I voted for Trump, so it's not a political statement,
My argument now, and again, I voted for Trump, so it's not a political statement, but I think Trump's policies have actually caused a major delay in what would have been like a more prolonged or follow through in the moves that we saw from 2023 to 2025 and some risk assets.
Right now, like the combination of like government shutdowns and overly aggressive immigration enforcement that scares racial minorities such that they stop spending money.
Right. Some of the jobs, some of the like the stuff with the Fed, right, where there's all this sort of uncertainty, the geopolitical stuff.
I think like if you if you look at it, like the economy was actually better for most companies and for most crypto investors during the Biden presidency.
People would argue, well, Trump's going to be better for crypto.
It's like, well, actually, he launched some tokens that have crashed.
He's caused a lot of traditional institutional investors to think that crypto is tainted by grifting.
His economic policies haven't actually done anything to create liquidity, and we
candidly haven't really had a business cycle.
So it's actually been a tough three to four-year period for most people to make money unless
you're just long the S&P 500, because the S&P 500 by default has exposure to AI, and
so you got that.
Or in crypto, if you were just long Bitcoin, you did okay.
And so what I'm looking for over the next year or two is when that flips.
Because I do think at some point here, Trump will try to get out of his own way, or at
least his advisors will convince him to get out of his own way.
And that at some point, and we're seeing this now, we finally saw a PMI, an ISM PMI rating
starting to break out saw a really cool chart the other day someone posting the ism pmi with like
korean exports and korean exports are breaking out so there's they're arguing that ism pmi is
going to go up further look i i don't know like my job as an investor is not to predict everything
perfectly my job is to stay positioned in things that I think are undervalued and hold
those positions long enough for the market to revalue them. And that means sometimes I have
to hold them for three years. And so I've been thinking that we're going to get a push of
liquidity out on the curve beyond Bitcoin for three years. And we just absent a couple of
short-term moves in like meme stocks and BNB and Ethereum and so on, et cetera,
we really haven't seen that. And so I would argue that whatever the next major move in crypto is,
it could be quite significant because you'd be coming out of effectively like a four-year plus
consolidation area where if you don't think crypto's dead, you know that crypto's never
going to matter. Like at some point here when that happens, I expect a pretty large rally.
And so I don't really care how much lower Ethereum goes
or Bitcoin goes in the short term.
I'm just going to keep buying it all the way down.
I have the capacity to just buy it forever, right?
And so I'm just going to keep buying it,
buying it, buying it, buying it every week, every month, right?
And I will wait until the next time
people in these spaces are excited about Bitcoin and Ethereum.
And that's the only time I would consider trimming them because I'm still confident in the long-term fundamental thesis in those assets even
though we haven't had a like a crypto cycle at all for four years but i gotta run thanks guys
hold on hold on mike real quick today i want to ask you something did you listen to the feds talk
about ai and like the economy in the labor market i listen to everyone but what what what specifically
essentially like they're just like uh saying how ai is going to help long-term, but they're not really too sure on the short-term of productivity.
They're saying AI is not yet where it needs to be.
You being the big AI guy, do you feel like short-term AI can sustain these prices, or do you think we will see a repricement because of this?
I don't i don't i
don't buy that narrative at all i mean sounds good look at look at look at how ai is repricing
like every sector of the public equities market it's just systematically taking some of these
subsectors of technology out to the woodshed and executing them whether it's like software stocks
or real estate stocks or transportation stocks, like Anthropoc
Claude by itself is like decimating some of these sectors and bringing their multiples
down substantially.
So whether or not it's actually productive enough yet is sort of beyond the point.
It's already having an impact on the market.
It's having an impact on investor expectations, having an impact on valuations.
And I would argue probably for both OpenAI and Anthropic, their revenue growth is actually
exceeding expectations.
And the adoption curve is actually exceeding expectations.
So I actually, I'm going to continue betting on the kind of 10-year view, which is that
AI is probably bigger than most people think.
There will be dot-com bubble moments like 2000 to 2002 for AI when that happens,
as anybody's guess.
But my argument would be those would just be buying opportunities.
You would want to buy any time Michael Burry is too successful shorting them.
You'd want to buy any major drawdown because, especially if you're young,
over 5, 10, 15-year periods, this is very much still early, in my opinion.
Anyway, I've got to run it, guys. my opinion. So anyway, I got to run it.
Thanks again.
Sounds good, man.
Thanks for that.
But kind of to touch base about like what Mike said, they're basically bullish long
term that AI is going to produce essentially like better, stronger GDP growth and long
term productivity.
But like me looking at the markets from like all time frames i'm just curious on like fundamentally
if the demand is going to be able to be sustained the way it is but i guess we'll figure that out
with nvidia to see what their earnings are because i feel like the market's waiting to
either make a new leg down or start a little few week bull rally based off of that i know i'm
waiting on like entering like non-perp leverage positions based off whatever comes out of that what are you saying bro yeah i mean i think we got more to go down i mean i'll say that to start
i mean especially like yeah i think i think the narrative a lot of the narratives people have
mentioned you know consumer staples i mean if we're just trying to outperform the s&p 500 like
you likely could continue to do that with consumer staples xle if we're just trying to outperform the s&p 500 like you likely could continue to do
that with consumer staples xle is probably even more attractive still for the next few months
um you mentioned uranium it's uac was the uranium company that's like that's one that's in texas that
i uh i have a small position in um consolidating i mean that should come up i'm actually more bullish on xle though
um to be completely honest so and even like oxy even the buffett one uh accidental petroleum
that's the one berkshire hathaway has that one's pretty good too um so that would be still kind of
the most bullish thing number two most bullish thing probably consumer staples with a close like third and fourth being like uh uh international probably
em you know um regional banks kre i know joe carlos sorry you mentioned that that does look
pretty attractive still as well and this is just you know number one goal i'll perform the s&p 500
especially in a bear market year for bitcoin because um, you know, if you converted a lot of
crypto back in, and this wasn't even at the top, like I kind of, to be completely honest,
kind of panic sold a lot, like at the end of October and converted into like, you know,
super safe stuff like Berkshire Hathaway and all the things like generally most of the things I
just mentioned. And like, that's up over a hundred percent against my crypto positions. So, I mean,
if I were to buy Bitcoin right now, I'd have double of it.
And I'm not saying this to brag or anything.
I mean, I've made terrible trades in the past.
I know we all have.
But that's one of them that's kind of worked out. I don't think it's, like, I'd say Bitcoin, you know, the first thing we got to realize, like, it's coming back down, you know, right now.
And there's some of the fear with it.
If you guys saw what happened with Mexico, I i mean that's enough to scare people a little bit
and then there's the iran stuff and the tariff stuff so completely fundamental you know completely
headline based not too bueno at the moment but that's probably you know stuff that changes in
a couple months hopefully but yeah i mean the thing though is um Mike was, you know, I ran my, you know,
the Bitcoin proxies, I guess. Yeah. That's what you'd call the Bitcoin treasury companies,
basically Bitcoin proxies in terms of my view. Micro strategy is probably the most attractive
one right now. I think that will start to outperform. I ran in my opinion, I mean,
they both could do well. I'm not, I'm not saying like one, you should be, you know, I'm not,
I'm not saying one's going to zero and one's going to infinity. It's not,
it's not at all what I'm saying, but BMN are like Mike mentioned to, you know, bit might immersion.
Yeah. I mean, I think that the big thing, my strategy with those and with that, you know,
just like I was mentioning with these boring things, your number one goal is to outperform
the S and P 500 with these more volatile, more interesting things that could potentially have
more upside potential,
your number one goal is to outperform Bitcoin because none of us, you know,
it's been tough to do that over the past few years with altcoins.
I mean, very tough.
Barely anything has outperformed Bitcoin over the past few years in terms of the crypto space.
Now, MicroStrategy bottomed earlier against Bitcoin back in 2022, May of 2022, before Ethereum bottomed in June, way before Bitcoin actually hit a bottom in November.
And this was, you know, it was a double bottom on the USD pair later that year for MicroStrategy.
But it bottomed against Bitcoin earlier, too.
So that's something to realize.
And the best strategy for that, in addition, BM&R fits into this narrative, too. So that's something to realize. And the best strategy for that, in addition, BMNR fits into this narrative too, is set a little alert that if BMNR, what I'm doing,
set a little alert below the low for BMNR versus Bitcoin, below the low for microstrategy versus
Bitcoin. And if it breaks that low, if it loses that low against Bitcoin, then I convert those
positions back into Bitcoin because what's the point if I'm going to
keep bleeding against Bitcoin? Then something different's happening. Something different's
happening. These Bitcoin proxies are not as strong as they were back in 2022 if they continue to just
bleed against Bitcoin at this point. So yeah, I think the thing in terms of price action on Bitcoin,
I mean, you're coming back down. I don't have the chart in front of me at the moment,
but you're coming back down. I think you're going to retest those 60K areas as the NASDAQ probably comes down farther, as the S&P 500 comes down farther. Those two look terrible
at the moment. I would say that there's people that make the argument that Bitcoin is kind of
like leveraged NASDAQ. I think it's true to a certain extent, at least, you know, still right now.
And I think if NASDAQ comes down,
Bitcoin probably comes down farther.
But just keep in mind, like,
it doesn't have to be, you know,
completely catastrophic.
Like, you could easily see a bottom
at like 50K, 48K, maybe even 52K.
In my opinion, I think it's less likely
that you, you know, you'll see a bottom
at 60K or anything above that.
But, you know, to go below like 48K, I don't think the odds are very high of that.
And you could even look at the betting odds of Polymarket
and what numbers you'll hit by the end of the year.
Once you get down to below 40K, it's very low.
It gets very low.
And conversely, once you get above like 90K, the odds are pretty low this year.
You're probably going to be between those
between those numbers um i do think there's a decent shot though of within the next week maybe
i'm being a little bit too optimistic in the short term but a little god candle like a little jump up
to like 73 74k to just punish all the people trying to short because in those bear market rallies you
get that weird volatility sometimes so i could see see maybe, just maybe this week being, don't get mad at me if I'm wrong, but
maybe this week being green, a little bit green the next week into March.
Because March is historically a bad month for Bitcoin to begin with.
And that's kind of your second tax season sell-off normally.
So just maybe we can hold on a little bit this week.
But the fundamentals, you know, I feel like, too, I remember a few months ago I was talking about, you know, Bitcoin getting back up to like 108K potentially.
And then Trump's tariffs and everything kind of knocked us down from there.
I feel like what's happening, I feel like Trump ain't helping us lately.
Like the news has been kind of unlucky on our side.
We haven't been hitting those like um recovery targets quite and
we just keep kind of rolling over a little bit earlier so just just keep that in mind but yeah
i mean the last thing i'll say here kind of what i've been doing um you know in terms of try in
terms of like trad fi techniques wheel method with you know ibit micro strategy bmr with the caveat
of just do it with ibit if micro strategy orrategy or BMNR makes a lower low against Bitcoin,
just get out of those and do it with IBIT.
But, you know, accumulation.
Generally, I think you're in a long accumulation phase,
you know, selling cash-recurred puts
and then selling call options in the wheel
kind of gives a good return over the months.
And then you, voila, towards the end of the year,
you have 30% more Bitcoin or 40% more
Ibit, you know, those type of situations
so yeah
Dude, have you seen Vitalik? He's been selling
ETH for the last few days
man, what a disgrace
Not good bro, not
He's been selling literally
every single week for the last 10
years straight, bro.
I mean, the selling that he's been doing over the last 12 months is always at range lows.
But, yeah, selling ETH near the January 2018 highs,
it's not a good look, man.
It's really not.
I get every two quarters that goes by over the last 12 months,
it's like I just don't see the don't see the narrative with eth against hyperliquid um
because even when zerp and qe come back right like you know how many people are gonna go from
trad fi to uh to hyperliquid um and just gamble like once you start having trad fi people come
over to crypto and they're like, oh, dang, I can also
go on leverage with equities on Hyperliquid. That's like a net add to the space. Whether it's
ETH, it adds just like this, this like short term attention. And when these bad things happen,
like a lunar or whatever
they happen every four years it's so crazy every few years or something bad that happens to crypto
those people that should have been like multi-cycle cockroaches they end up leaving
i think the last breed of multi-cycle cockroaches were people who survived BitConnect and maybe like
3AC and all that stuff. And I guess the next thing after that that happened was 1010, right?
Like we're trading 30% lower post 10 10, like that consolidation range between, um, 89 to 95 K that's the range
that we were at. And I think a lot of people left during that time. Um, I, I really do.
The ceilings for on chain were, were higher, man. And now it's trash, honestly. It really is. Whether it's Hyperliquid,
right? All right. If someone from TradFi comes in and they're like, oh, shit, something happened
with Ethereum or some other new token, that's fine. I'll just stay on Hyperliquid and continue
to trade stocks. But of course, if something bad happens to Hyperliquid, um continue to trade stocks but of course if something bad happens
to hyperliquid oh my god that would be worse than luna to be honest i i really do think so but
um i guess that's just the risk that we take right being in this market
prometheus what do you think man what happen if hyper liquid goes down bro i think that would be like pretty detrimental that would be yeah yeah i mean there's no
i mean arguably i mean it'd be the equivalent of like what's the worst thing that can happen
to hyper liquid i think sullivan would would be the yeah he would probably know i mean
tommy's mentioned it but if they have like, you know, if things go bad, then I mean, Hyperliquid would probably, you know, try to make everybody whole with the LP.
But I mean, at that point, I mean, it's pretty much a zero and, you know, they're never going to be able to generate meaningful fees again at that point.
I mean, it would be the equivalent of an ftx and the reason why i say that
is because last cycle obviously centralized exchanges dominated uh the majority of the
landscape right i mean it was like coinbase ftx you know there's a few others and that's where
the majority of people transacted right i mean if you ask anybody from last cycle where they were buying things at, the majority of people were probably telling you Coinbase.
And this cycle, the reason why there's the comparison is this cycle, where the majority
of people are transacting for the most part has been hyperliquid outside of like Solana on chain,
right? And even the majority of the solano participants now are
you know doing probably the majority of their volume on hyperliquid to this point i would imagine
um if they are still trying to be active within these markets and so it would probably be the
equivalent of like an ftx event if hyperliquid does if something significant does happen to hyperliquid. I just don't see where you would have supportive flows
like after that.
I mean, you would, you just had 10, 10, right?
I mean, realistically, like it wasn't that long ago.
So anybody holding leverage for the most part
that was like too, had too much risk deployed
has been long gone for the most part that was like too had too much risk uh deployed has been long gone for
the most part um people on chain like most people don't want to transact on chain and like the last
people that are alive or like the you know it's like the battle of 300 at this point it seems like
for the people still in this space and so if hyperluga went down i mean it would be
it would be pretty bad um i mean that's simple as that
and what what would cause them to like go on i have no idea um genuinely speaking i mean
go on. I have no idea. Um, genuinely speaking, I mean, what I like, what I like to have seen was,
I mean, the full, you know, uh, Binance Cabal coming after Hyperliquid North Korea trying to,
um, essentially blow them up and they still came out on top. Like, you know, that's pretty
significant in my opinion. And, you know, that's pretty significant in my opinion.
And, you know, they're battle tested at this point.
They are, they have tenacity and that's what you like to see, right?
They, they're a very efficient team.
I mean, what is it?
11 people.
And they are just printing.
they do a great job at what they do, you know? And, and I, at this point,
They do a great job at what they do, you know?
it's hard to imagine outside of like some form of regulation
that would hurt them. Right. I think that maybe, you know,
there could be some form of regulation down the line that could potentially hurt them.
You know, I still at that point, you know,
people are probably trying would try to get around it.
I think that the administrations,
the last one in this current one have been very, very, very careful.
For the most part in regards to like how they, what kind of regulation they do put,
you know, kind of on the space. Um, I was talking to Tommy earlier in regards to like Binance and
Coinbase. And I think that there's probably a bigger threat to Binance, in my opinion.
Um, it's been known at this point that they have allowed for criminal organizations to launder a tremendous amount of money through, um, through their platforms. Right. That's not a secret. Um, and you know, Binance is, I mean, they're based out of the Cayman Islands, I'm pretty sure now, but I mean, they're essentially like a Chinese bucket shop.
like a chinese bucket shop um dude they're gonna throw world liberty
fire under the bus man before binance ever goes down if they do
they will throw world liberty fire what do you think
on the 26th dude every single ticker every ticker man that like
world liberty fight like talks about dude it's like
all right this this shit is not gonna last yeah
long man um and if Zach XBT puts that out man then yeah I think people are just gonna blame
world Liberty 5 for for 1010 I've never liked them at all man you're like a shady car salesman
you know what I'm saying like you just get that like bad vibe like there's people you talk to in
real life and you just kind of get that
like stink energy off of them.
You're like,
you are just a shady person.
That's like the,
that's what the world liberty,
that's what world liberty is the equivalent to.
I mean,
genuinely speaking,
but I mean,
Binance,
the reason why I say there's probably a larger threat to Binance is that the
United States at this point understands that there's really only two sexes that matter, centralized exchanges for the most part. using Binance or vice versa. And Coinbase does have, is kind of in bed with regulators,
and they have been for quite some time. And they understand that if they can, you know, allow for,
or, you know, potentially take down Binance, you know, the United States government then has essentially full oversight and a monopoly over the entire space, you know, through their marionette being Coinbase, right?
Coinbase is a puppet of the state.
Let's be real at this point.
off as you know pro crypto pro retail pro on chain but they literally just nuked base and base has
been their baby that they've been building out for like what over almost two years now um at this
point so it's hard to imagine that coinbase continues to really be centered around you know
or have the same values that it once did, especially earlier this cycle.
So moving forward, they said their main focus is going to be using base as a trading focused platform.
So what does that mean?
That means full oversight.
They can have full control over everything.
And that's the goal.
And pushing Binance out of the picture,
in my opinion, is probably the end goal
for the administration
or for the United States rather.
And they will use Coinbase as a way
to have complete authoritarian control.
That's my general outlook outlook um really for coinbase
for the broader future i mean that's that's kind of where i'm at i don't think hyperliquids
necessarily can have an issue unless like trump wants to just like go blow it up
yeah um you guys remember ksiSI during the last bear market?
He would troll.
He would be right for a while.
I kind of think that's what Clavicular is right now.
He's been trolling crypto over the last month or two,
and prices have been grinding down so maybe this
bear markets ksi um is clavicular and he'll end up being on a space on a day where bitcoin's down
like 10 to 20 grand and he'll just maniacally laugh and that'll end up like being the bottom um yeah clavicular is uh peter teal's industry plant yeah yeah yeah i
think every everyone has kind of come to terms with that but i wouldn't rule out like that
actually marking out a bottom um on a day where btc's down like 10 to 20k um and sullivan is right what did happen to dwf labs we don't hear much about them anymore
they kind of just disappeared right um same thing with winter mute man um
yeah it's just uh it's just crickets now small cap what's up man how are you
It's just crickets now small cap. What's up, man. How are you?
Hey, Bobby, you're gonna have to come back to me in a couple minutes. I'll be ready when you get back
I'm just finishing something up right here. My bad brother. Okay. Okay
Hey prometheus, man, what's this price action with all these cyber security companies, bro?
You have cloud flare and a few others down like
I mean, rightfully so
Rightfully so I came on this space
oh when was it was that uh that was about last week i think it was two fridays ago um and i
kind of talked about you know opposite of kind of what my girlfriend talks about is he's on the
speculation side and i mentioned that probably the majority of the speculation for the AI trade is over
with.
You know, you have MedCapTech spending $650 billion alone this year on AI build out through
CapEx, right?
And people think that this is just going to,
this is like endless, right? People think that this is just, you know, par for the course, and that they can, you know, realistically continue to maintain this level, this elevated
and bloated level of CapEx. But my counter argument to that is these balance sheets can only sustain that trend for so long i
mean realistically if you do the numbers i mean it's around three to five years right if it remains
constant at 650 billion um you know obviously based off of current roi numbers right return
on investment um you know if they're spending $650
billion a year, they could realistically do it for maybe five years. If it compounds and we see
more or larger capex over the next few years, they can maybe sustain it for three. And then
they're kind of, you know, you kind of have to pay the piper, or I should say the question then
arises, where's your ROI, right? Where is the return on the investment that we're getting from all
of this spending? And nobody can answer that question. Not a single person can answer that
question as of right now. At least ones that meet or justify the amount of CapEx that is occurring,
right? I mean mean everybody wants to get
ahead of the game you know they want to get their data centers built out they you know want their
models trained but then once the models are trained what do the models actually do how do
you monetize them or what do they do to like monetize themselves essentially to where you can then generate the amount of money necessary to justify
that capex. And it's just not there. It is simply not there. Um, and because of that,
I think the majority of the speculation in regards to AI is probably for the most part done,
at least in the near to midterm. And now what has arisen,
or what has risen, excuse me, what has rose is the disruption. And this is now where we enter
into the disruption period. And I talked about this two Fridays ago, and I mentioned it quite
clearly. You entered speculation a little over 24 months ago with the NVIDIA trade.
And now that trade is largely saturated.
And now the question is, okay, we're not generating any money with this AI.
There's no real ROI for the most part with AI.
But guess what it is doing is it's destroying very, very, very large companies' business models, i.e. IBM.
Look at the IBM chart, right?
And that disruption factor, guess what, is just getting started.
And you may see, quote unquote, discounted valuations from what we've seen over the last 24 months, but rightfully so, right?
You need to see a repricing across the board. And that does
not stop until we truly figure out the full capabilities of what AI can do, right? How much
disruption is going to occur. And once the dust settles, then you will find out what's a good buy.
Then you will find out what to buy. And then you will actually find out what is truly discounted and
what is just another Cisco, right? Oracle today getting sued on securities frauds or Oracle today,
I'm pretty sure it got sued for security fraud, right? You know, OpenAI has $1.5 trillion
of deliverables that they have to meet. Well, do you think that open AI is going to be
able to meet $1.5 trillion of deliverables when 80% of their revenue comes from a $20 a month
subscription? How many of those do you have to sell? Do the math and tell me how many of those
you have to sell for that to make sense. Please tell me, please tell me.
You bring up a good point, bro. Real quick. Did you watch? I bring this up because it was super important and you kind of touched based on what I wanted Mike to talk about.
So with like AI right now, a lot of it is like speculation and what you said, even how like, you know, it's affecting these companies because fundamentally they're not like meeting the demand of all this speculation.
There's going to be a lot of GPUs, I think, at the end of this year that aren't sold.
And I think we're starting to see the decline.
I think we're going to see what NVIDIA is earning.
That's what I'm paying attention to is like, does the demand still meet and will it exceed expectations?
What are your thoughts on that, G?
I think that a lot of these companies are going to continue to try to front run each other in that sense.
to continue to try to front run each other in that sense? Do I think that GPUs are going to
slowly, do I think that the demand side for GPUs is going to fall off? As of right now,
not really. What I think is going to happen is there's going to come a time where people come and
knocking, right.
And you're already seeing it, um, where shareholders go, Hey, remember when we thought you were,
you know, a super strong company from a balance sheet perspective and you had all this cash,
you're flush with cash.
Um, right.
There was a ton of, uh, innovation going. And you then took that cash. You invested that cash.
And your balance sheet kind of sucks now. Can you explain that one to us? Right.
We don't think you're actually valued or you should be valued at what you really are.
And that's when you get kind of the repricing in a lot of these hyperscalers, which are already getting.
Now, from the GPU perspective perspective you have to remember that
they're always going to be coming out with newer chips um you know the gpus for the most sense
right we're kind of getting to like the whole like moore's law thing where they can only really make
them you know um you know incrementally more efficient for each new one. Um, but again, like if you run these
models and you run the models in the data centers and they're running for, you know, two straight
years, the, the chips that are, uh, you know, they burn out, they burn out pretty, pretty quickly.
Um, and so you're constantly having to recycle them. Um, right. And so there may come a time where you're going to have to see one of
two things occur. Right. And that's either you create a new way to train the models. Um,
because the CapEx does not justify the, um, does not make sense at all, like does not justify the return that you're getting from these LOMs, right?
Or what you're going to see, or what you're going to have to see, is you're going to have to see demand really falter. And what I mean by that is user demand really falter
because it's kind of like,
it's a simple supply and demand mechanic
where you either meet said requirements on both ends,
or if one end does not meet said requirement,
then typically the other end is either going to suffer in a big way
or it's going to prosper in a big way. And I think truthfully, GPU demand is not going to
necessarily stop. I just think that truthfully, what's probably going to happen is you're going
to see a repricing and valuations across the board. And the disruption is huge. It's huge. We're seeing like today with IBM, right?
Their proprietary COBOL, it's, you know, the, the business language model literally get blown
to smithereens by, by Claude, right? Blown to smithereens, right? And that was kind of the
last straw that IBM really had
from, you know, within their business model. Like, sure, they're building out a quantum computer and,
you know, there's maybe a few other things they have going for them. But that's just like,
this is just the beginning, right? You're going to see marketing agencies become non-existent.
You're going to see a lot of software companies become non-existent. You're going to see a lot of software companies become
non-existent, right? Guess what's going to happen to Photoshop? Zero, zero. You think people are
going to pay a $600 a month subscription when they can literally go on a free, a free LLM prompt
and type something in and it spits something out in the matter of seconds.
And you think they want to sit on a Photoshop for 10 hours a day trying to get an image
to look how they want? No, absolutely not. And so I think, like I said, the dust is like,
we're starting to kick up dust and we're going to cause a lot of it, or I should say AI is going
to cause a lot of it. And as of right now, I don't think that there's really anything from
a valuation perspective, at least in software that I find attractive, right? I want to see
what proves itself, right? I don't want to guess what's going to prove itself. And I think that's
a lot of people get tripped up specifically in adjacent to Bitcoin, right? Everybody wants to try to guess the bottom
on Bitcoin. Who cares if it's 30K? Who cares if it's 15K? Who cares if it's right here at 65K?
Just let the chart show you, right? Let price show you. Because what is price? Price is just
a reflection of buyers and sellers in the market. When you see buyers, the ultimate arbiter. Yes, it is. It is. And all you have to do is just sit there
and listen. And so many people's egos have such a tough time allowing them to just open up their ears and be patient and just listen, right?
Because what they want to do is they want to seek valuation on this platform and try to be right
rather than just make money. Who cares if you're right? The only thing that matters is you make
money, right? So that's kind of where I'm at. Um, I think that there are, I think gold looks
fantastic here for another leg up, truthfully speaking. Um, I would like to see, start to see
some continuation, obviously the geopolitical sector or geopolitical sphere is, you know,
heating up again, which again, pushes right back towards more de-dollarization.
The de-dollarization trade is, you know, that's a long, for that relationship to play out
takes a long time, right? And I don't think really anybody wants to go have like you wands be there, you know,
reserve currency.
Right.
I don't think that like people, you know, people are getting away from the dollar.
I don't think they want to go have another currency, but it'd be like the reserve currency,
right.
Or be like the currency of trade.
What are people probably going to buy?
Uh, specifically like other nations, it's going to be gold.
Um, it's not going to be a crypto.
It's not going to be silver. Um, it may be a little silver, but it's, it's going to be gold.
Um, and I think that, you know, trade is probably going to continue to play out to the upside.
I think that Tesla is probably going to implode here soon. You have seen the company especially over the last six months thrive off of speculation in
regards to SpaceX and guess what SpaceX is now IPOing so Tesla does not benefit from that
speculation anymore so we need to ask ourselves okay is it just a car company now is it a car
company and a robotics company well if it's a robotics company, well, they definitely don't have any working robots right now, or at least ones that anybody wants to buy because they're just way too expensive.
And do people want to buy their cars?
Well, if you go and you look at their sales, well, their sales are down quite a bit.
So if they're just a car company, then, you know, they've been doing a pretty poor job of it, you know, the past 12 months.
you know, they're, they've been doing a pretty poor job of it, you know, the past 12 months,
granted, you know, the FSD, the self-driving is awesome. And, you know, you have, uh, you know,
the self-driving taxis and, you know, the future of the company, I'm sure will, will not fail.
Uh, but a revaluation makes sense, right? Um, it makes sense. Um, you know, Elon doesn't have
that limelight that he once did, right. He doesn't have that limelight that he once did, right. He
doesn't have that shiny luster that he once did. So, uh, you know, it's not necessarily like a
social token anymore either. Um, you know, if I look at names that are historically, uh, Binance
Cabal Farms for BNB or for Binance to prop up BNB. You know, those were popping off today. If you look at Pippin, you know, another one of those, right?
Another one of those, you know, Binance Cabal Farms
to prop up and support BNB price popping off today.
You know, Binance is struggling.
It's obvious.
It still has yet to take out its February, March and April lows.
I think that's only a matter of time.
You know, really awful open on Bitcoin on the weekly, like you needed to get back above 66k
roughly like a little bit over that like 66 and change, right? The reason why I say that is
because that's your value region from your 2024 summer range, right? Eight months of value you
created. And if you reject off of that point of
control, you're going to rotate it back down to range lows. That's 50K. Like that's where I would
see if Bitcoin can't, and I've tweeted this out, if Bitcoin can't get it back above 66K
by tomorrow, Tuesday, with, you know, gamma rolling off, volatility about to be unleashed onto the market, indices looking lethargic and needing a HIMSS prescription, tech rolling over and imploding, right?
Nothing's going to hold Bitcoin up.
Nothing's going to hold Bitcoin up.
It's only a matter of time.
And I think that here very soon, everybody's going to be presented with fantastic buying opportunities if they just allow the market to freaking nuke.
Like just allow the market to sell off.
They're so worried about boomers who have literally had an up only market for the last 50 years losing a little bit of their net worth.
Let the younger generation buy some discounted assets, damn it.
Just let them do it.
Let them do it and it'll be good for everybody.
And I think if they allow that to happen, you're going to be presented with some really, really, really, really good buying opportunities come probably Q2.
Yeah, I would agree, man.
And on-chain is pretty shitty, man.
is uh pretty shitty man i know maybe like you haven't really looked at it a lot but um
it would you when you have like the thing with most attention being a monkey that got abandoned
by its mom and it has a stuffed animal and it caps at like 40 mil um and you look at what
happened last month with the penguin token you dude you're talking about if it was neat i don't know how to pronounce the the the mcetrist penguin whatever it was
that was the most viral tiktok and thing on media in years and that shit dude and that shit peaked
at like 140 it got a retweet from the white. And the fact that that did not surpass the white whale valuation from December
just further proves the euthanasia roller coaster that really started with useless.
Eustis token peaked in July or early August of last year at like 500 mil,
whatever it was.
And it was just a euthanasia roller coaster over and over and over and over and over again.
And now we have the monkey token.
And any time a narrative gets exhausted on Seoul, it's headed lower.
And when Seoul heads lower, the rest of the market heads lower.
In due course, in due course.
What were you saying, Prometheus? Did you say something?
Yeah, if ASU frat leader, like this whole, you know,
mogging thing came out in beginning of Q4.
2024, bro.
Yeah, or beginning.
Or in 2024.
Yeah, yeah, in beginning of, uh, 24.
Dude, those names would have gone to, like,
hundreds of mil a piece.
Like, you would have had multiple, multiple,
like, 500 mil runners.
Yeah.
Clav could have easily extracted
30 M's
easily from the market.
You know the market's
still cooked when you have Mog
still not doing anything. Bro, the other
day I heard someone say,
bro, I'm a part of the Mog whale chat. You've got to be fucking kidding me bro you're bragging about being a whale
on on an altcoin that's like 60 mil market you know what probably has a lot more like hey man
i'm first in line to to lose a good amount of money respectfully that coin was cooked when k money sold his bag to buy millennia
it is what it is i have i have no idea that even happened oh it did be honest um yeah i've i never
really like dabbled into like who's the whale of this token or whatever but i mean you still have
people say like oh i'm on I'm on XYZ coin whale.
Like, dude, that's like saying you're first in line to be taken out to the woodshed, man.
You know, losing your shirt.
But, I mean, I don't know.
Maybe I think people have this dopamine effect on Twitter.
on Twitter, or X, I can't stand calling this platform X, it'll always be Twitter.
I can't stand calling this platform.
It would always be Twitter.
People have this dopamine effect when it comes to losing money, right?
Oh, I'm just going to buy altcoins because everyone's bearish, and I feel like sentiment
can't go any lower, so I'm just going to keep buying, man, because a bull run isn't coming.
Man, it really is something dude it really is something the
characters uh that you meet on this app they're not real like a lot of these individuals they're
just not real which is why east denver 2024 was probably like my last crypto conference dude like did you see when that
dude in Miami uh came up to Clavs and he's like oh this is my boy uh he's uh he's a crypto
millionaire and then Clav is like are you still are you still a millionaire post Bitcoin dump and
he's like trillionaire and he's like oh all right man i just want to let you know i work for coinbase support um we're gonna have to look into your account for a suspicious
activity i'm gonna need to look into that and he says it so seriously with a with a straight face
dude and then this guy's like oh it's a good thing it's on uh it's on cold storage right and he emphasizes the cold storage
part with vocal fry you know what vocal fry is bro if you're a man and you have vocal fry you
need to be voice maxing you need to go onto the woods and scream as loud as possible at least 10
times take a big deep breath get in a position, and then slowly squat up and practice the
valve, I think it's called the valve salva maneuver, and deepen your voice.
Get rid of vocal fry, okay?
Your voice is a posture, right?
But anyways, I think that just signifies, I think it signifies how much more work this industry needs to do for the people that represent it IRL, man.
You understand?
Yeah.
That's what I wanted to say.
You voice Max, Evan.
We know you voice Max.
Well, yeah.
I don't try to voice Max, but, you know.
I was just going to say, man, the young generation, like, I mean, we're old.
We're onks, Wabi.
I mean, if you're over the age of, like, 28, you're kind of lucky in a way
because you're onk-maxing at this point.
Like, we don't have to do none of this looks-maxing crap.
Like, everybody has to look like a pretty boy, like Clavicle-lar
or whatever the hell his name is, Clav, I'll just say.
And even that, he has to deal with all this bullshit from girls and stuff.
And I guarantee you he's not even satisfied with his success
he probably has with women at that point.
Like, you never win in Miami.
And it's really gotten so bad for the younger generation.
I mean, aren't some of these
guys like literally like I don't know it's just it's just like uh man it's just annoying man I
feel I feel bad for them because it's it's just the culture is so bad and all this stuff and like
uh I I just I I mean I'm in Argentina right now and I'm just I'm I'm just so happy to be a bit
away from like all this drama and
craziness and all that you know what i mean like i feel like that's why like that's why i like
depression so high in the u.s for some reasons because it's just constant you know constant
like you're never enough you know what i mean it's just constant bickering and drama and all
this stuff and uh i don't know i don't know if i'm just rambling but do you guys feel me no i i i do
i do see what you mean bro like um many people in our generation frankly missed out on crypto man
they saw pepe go to billions they saw farcoin go to billions um and that was after they saw things like neo go to billions xrp going to
billions like eight years ago it was it eight years ago yeah eight years ago maybe nine years
ago at this point but you have an entire generation that saw markets go up only and many people saw
btc do nothing from six to eight000 to $8,000 in 2019.
They saw Ethereum at like $200.
You understand, dude, that the average American, right?
What's that stupid term where it's like personal savings rate or whatever for disposable income?
income it's something that josh likes to mention sometimes i think for me oh boy i mentioned her
It's something that Josh likes to mention sometimes.
I think Pramita is also mentioned sometimes.
but based on that statistic dude the average american could have bought in like two eth a week
in 2019 so you're talking about like buying 100 eth a year and you know fast forward a couple years
later you're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars that they left on the table you're
talking about an entire generation that saw doge
um at pennies on the dollar and they could have made a ton of money and many people missed out or they sold too early or just life happened right um but it's just pain right it's just
pain everyone deals with pain specifically in crypto uh my biggest pain in crypto was screenshotting AI 16 Z at like 1.8 mil market cap.
And I'm like, all right, I'm going to go to the gym, then go to Whole Foods, and then I'm going to buy this shit.
I'm going to buy like 3% of the supply.
brother i go to whole foods and i see this thing getting shouted out by mark andreason and it's
sitting at like 80 mil market cap and i'm like fuck me man fuck me um that's pain bro that is
pain um so it just it just happens man and a lot of people get depressed over that shit.
And you just have to learn to take it to the chin and realize that crypto is like a lottery ticket where you actually have more chances at winning than losing.
Gainsey had a clip, I think it released like two or three days ago, something like that, where he goes in depth about that, where you can effectively run it up, lose it all again multiple times.
And, you know, the more times you do that,
it could actually have a detrimental effect on you.
But at least for now, there's still edge in this market
where you can, I guess, make it all back.
The market's not going to change anytime soon um and this whole like ai doomerism it's probably like maybe 10 years away whoever's president after
the next president i think that's when like the ai doomerism stuff starts happening and we have things like ubi and all of that stuff um and at that point
crypto is probably run by algorithms um yeah there might not be as much edge
spaces might even be different by that time um there's still some edge to be to be had in this
market but small caps what's up bro i'll pass it
over to you now and then i'll wrap up what's up brother yeah man i think that uh dude this this
chad stuff is crazy i mean i it's pretty funny i i my friends you know evan was talking about like
it's like depressing in the u.s or whatever he was saying and i was thinking to myself like yeah i
mean my my friend's younger
brother like asked us where were we when clavicular got mogged he's like 15 years old and i have no
idea what he was talking about like when i was 15 i was i was trying to make it to the nba you know
grinding in high school and anyways just a different world um but as far as what prometheus
was saying yeah man i think you make a really good point as far as Bitcoin. Um, I think you gotta let the chart, you gotta let price tell you, uh,
when the bottom is, you know, there's no, there's nothing wrong with, uh, like high,
high educated or just like, there's nothing wrong with like, um, what's the word I'm looking for?
Just measured DCA. Right. But there's a point where DCA turns
into just chase, you know, trying to buy a falling knife. And I'm not one to like,
not DCA Bitcoin, right? Like I, I mean, I said it on here, I bought some, you know,
in the low 60, 61, two, three, some at 66 as well. So like, I'm a, I'm a DCA Bitcoin guy, but I, I definitely think that like the chart is
telling us, um, that the bottom is, is not in yet. I think that, you know, especially if you
look at it more on the monthly timeframe, you sort of can see that, um, that like mid 2024,
like if it was August or July, like that, that 49, 48 to 53, 54 K area. That's, that's like a,
I think it's a pretty solid like target area that could definitely get, get swept right now.
And, you know, I, like, I love this space because it's just, it's, uh, it's realism and, and, and
realist, you know, I, like I was on a different space earlier last week and I said how, you know,
I could definitely see Bitcoin testing that like 48 K 52k area um and i would be a little bit more convinced that that would be our
bottom uh depending on how you know how long it takes to get there and how much longer we consolidate
in this frame etc and they basically kicked me and called me a retard you know i because i because i
said a slight slightly bearish, you know thing about Bitcoin
And then I said something also like a just a counter point about how you know, I don't think
But like maybe sailors not the greatest thing for Bitcoin and anyway, it's not gonna get too too far into it
But I got called a retard and they kicked me so
Great to be here on this space as far as you know
Just the market in general i i think that i bonds look pretty
bullish here man you know the 10 year is is and i know why we don't like to talk about bonds too
much i'll i won't i won't go too far into it but just yields are down um you know the shorter end
stuff like the two years is relatively below the fed funds rate at like three and a half right now. It's like in the
three, four range. And I think that it's a meaningful drop, especially, um, on a longer
duration side, like the 10 year two. And it's just, it's just reflecting somewhat of a flight
to safety that we're seeing, you know, investors are kind of rotating into treasuries, um, into,
uh, just like hot, you know, more certain yield stuff
as the yields are falling
to kind of, I think it would be a hedge
against the uncertainty, right?
From the high beta, the AI disruptors.
You know, there's a lot of fears
that are hitting tech and software names hard.
The ongoing trade policy noise,
the tariff stuff, right?
Supreme Court ruling on some emergency power.
So I think it's just all of this that what we're seeing in the market the last three months,
four months in the NASDAQ, in tech and crypto, and then you're watching yields fall. You're
watching mortgages are at a near four-year low. It's definitely just classic risk-off behavior,
right? Like equities are stalling, pulling back in growth areas,
and bonds are benefiting as the yields compress, right? As the price rises. So,
and I think, again, that just ties into why they look so bullish here. You know, staples,
utilities, energy, they're really strong right now for similar reasons. It's just
more predictable cashflow. And I think that bonds are actually amplifying
that with falling yields you know providing capital appreciation on top of the relatively
if you want to call it like attractive coupon levels right i mean still well above uh historical
lows after 2022 um but again it's just it's just like this setup just reinforces the broader
rotation. And then if we tie it into AI, shift gears to AI, because that's just what the mega
trend everyone's eyes are on, I think we're seeing some clear cycles rippling within the sector,
like the sectors within AI. And it's pretty fascinating how they
evolve. Like mid 2025, a little bit less than a year ago, it was the golden era for the data
centers, right? The companies that are building out the massive infrastructure, handling the AI
workloads, while the hyperscalers, Google, AWS, Microsoft Azure, they're pouring billions into expansions. The valuation soared
as that foundation was laid. And then we rolled into the end of 25, beginning of 26 here, and
the spotlight shifted to memory and storage place, right? Like SanDisk and, you know, what is it?
Micron, Hynix, Samsung. And, you know, why is that, right? It's just because
these data centers, you know, once they're up and running, they start collecting. And again,
a lot of them were miners, right? Transitioning. So they didn't really have to do crazy buildouts.
The infrastructure was there, just had to swap out the racks and instead of, you know, Bitcoin
mining, deploy the GPU. So, you know, and once those data centers were up and running, the bottleneck
then became, uh, like handling the processing speeds and all the data volume and just everything
that, everything that you need that goes into deploying GPU, uh, GPUs. And, and that's why we
saw the names like, uh, you know, SanDisk and those HBMm the ssds the the advanced storage technology stole the show
and is delivering those insane returns like props to you robbie like i wasn't really on here like
early or towards the end of last year i think was beginning of this year is when i found you guys
but i i remember hearing you talk about sandisk and clearly you've you've been on that so now it's kind of just like
we're seeing ai is like a natural progression right it's not it's not a monolith it's it's a
wave that lifts different boats at the same time and then and the next thing that's up um not too
sure but i but i wouldn't be surprised if we see like you know we're seeing the stall in the data
centers we're seeing the stall overall in the hyperscalers.
You know, I wouldn't be surprised if we see some type of move
depending on how the market holds up here with, you know,
like specialized AI chips by the middle of this year
or just edge computing as efficiency becomes more of the name of the game.
And I think these cycles kind of keep the
sector dynamic right like and smart investors are going to rotate with it not against it that's a
that's a pretty important thing and that ties back to just any investment too right it ties into
crypto and bitcoin like you want to try to rotate with the money rather than against it and and then
lastly if you just talk about the crypto miners,
you know, they're, it's, they're really stalling. And, and a lot of them are down generously from
all time highs that were made, whether it was like November or October of last year,
you know, they're making a really massive transformation. Like, like for years,
these guys were basically Bitcoin proxies,
their stocks were moving in pure lockstep with Bitcoin's price, right? You know, they rode the
volatility of mining rewards and halvings, but now it's, it's really changing and it's happening
way faster than, than I anticipated and way faster than I realized. And like, if we take like iron, for example,
Mike was talking about it. You know, he's on the board there. They're really not a Bitcoin proxy anymore. They've, they've pivoted extremely hard and it's not just iron. It's like cypher,
terror wolf, those guys, you know, applied digital, they've really pivoted hard into the,
the AI infrastructure and just repurposing their data centers for the
GPU heavy training, you know, that AI inference. And I think that, you know, it's a very like
transformative period for them as a lot of them are kind of like walking the tightrope,
trying to balance maximizing returns with capitalizing on time to compute.
Time to compute is basically just, it's essentially how quickly can you deploy and scale
AI resources. And in a world where these models are just progressing at insane speeds,
if you think about Grok updates or just new LLMs dropping
weekly, the winners are definitely going to be the ones who can get compute on fast. And, you know,
I, I, it's a really interesting spot right now. Cause, uh, there's a lot of money, a lot of
institutional flows into the data centers, into these, the AI infrastructure, the neoclouds, uh, space and, you know, like Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Black, Blackstone, Blackrock,
they're, they're, they're all coming out with these insanely bullish numbers, uh, as far as
the energy demand, right? Like Wells Fargo came out there, they revised up to 98 gigawatts of
power is going to be needed by 2027. Um, and then I think it was 125 by,
by 2028, you know, there's companies in this sector that have three, four, you know, two and
a half to four and a half gigawatts of secured power. If you look at that at the 27 need 2027
need, that's, that's over 5% of it. So when you see that, you think to yourself like, wow, that's
over 5% of it. So when you see that, you think to yourself like, wow, that's an incredible moat.
But at the same time, like why aren't the deals happening? And I think that that's kind of like
a little bit of a concern that some investors have and just shareholders that I see overall
a lot on this space. And again, it's just such a transformative industry and and like new sector that you're
really gonna there's gonna be some crazy swings and at the same time like someone said earlier
whether i don't know if it was prometheus or wabi like the market is it's way less speculative now
it's more um you know like last year the year before if you had hyperscalers revising their CapEx up from $150 billion to $75 billion,
and $75 to $100, $125, the stock was running just based off of that guidance. Now,
because it was much more speculative, it was like, you have to be taking part in AI
to win. You have to be taking part in AI to be a part of the future, to be a part of the
and AI and, uh, uh, you know, to be a part of the future, to be a part of the, the future economy.
Now today, it's definitely more of like, okay, when are these projects going to create a return
on investment? How much is the return on investment going to be? Like what, what years are we going
to see some free cashflow? Is it two years from now, three years from now, five years from now?
Um, so that's kind of what like I'm seeing in the
market. And, uh, it's just, it's, it's a really interesting time. So, um, I, you know, we got
some earnings reports coming out this week, like one of the, you know, cipher mining reports
tomorrow. I think it'll be interesting to see like if they lock up a deal, if they're what
they're doing with their power. Um, but nonetheless, yeah, yeah man it's a crazy market well man i think uh it's a great time to wrap up thanks for coming on brother i wish i could
extend the conversation man but, but I'm tapped.
I got some things to do here in the next few minutes.
But I want to thank you, bro, for coming on.
I want to thank Prometheus, Uncle Mike for coming on as well.
Evan, thank you for coming on.
Shout out to all the speakers.
Thank you all so much for those of you listening in the crowd,
those of you listening to the recording, those of you listening to the
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