Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you Thank you. Fearless and burden, curse and trust on me, I'm a tear and sorrow, I'm a tear and pain,
I'm a tear and pain, I'm a tear and pain, I'm a tear and pain, I'm a tear and pain,
I'm a tear and pain, I'm a tear and pain, I'm a tear and pain, I'm a tear and pain, Oh And the other one is out of the middle.
And the other one is out of the middle.
And the other one is out of the middle.
And the other one is out of the middle.
And the other one is out of the middle.
And the other one is out of the middle. And the other one is out of the middle. I you with the rise but only die
how does the beat of future
and the right and the right yeah
Oh, yeah. Thank you. music Thank you. It's great as me, God, he is the crowd.
He's down and broke, yeah, summer wears you down.
Overloads of heart and stumbles, hit the ground that heavy rumbles.
All alone I'm dancing along, I'm going to fall while you're dry. You can't, you can't, you can't, you can't have it, all you can't have it.
All you can't have it, all you can't have it.
All you can't have it, all you can't have it.
All you can't have it, all you can't have it.
All you can't have it, all you can't have it.
All you can't have it, all you can't have it.
All you can't have it, all you can't have it. All you can't have it, all you can't have it. I'm going to go. Music hey what's going on guys happy tuesday happy taco tuesday it seems like tuesdays uh are a day where fear and uncertainty leave the market and there's a bounce.
Plenty of things are having quite the relief today.
A lot of the names that we discussed yesterday have had quite the impressive bounces.
Hood up 10 plus percent from yesterday's low.
Hemstock also having a fantastic day we discussed that at length
yesterday um and crypto as far as majors are concerned still in the mid-range s&p up almost
three percent going into the close um i want to see how uh we end off q2 man i really want to see that because q1 was obviously
abysmal and uh we saw that last year right we did see this kind of price action last year where q1
was risk off but q2 was mostly risk on so wondering, like, is this the new regime?
Is Q1 the new Q2 and is Q2 the new Q1?
Truth be told, I've said this on record,
if we don't make new lows by the time Warsh gets in,
which I believe is sometime in mid-May,
so in about six weeks, if we don't make new lows, then
we're probably just going to arrange for a lot longer than people think before that
final downswing if we have one, right? Usually in bear markets, that last leg does take
a significant amount of time. If we look back all the way in 2022, it took us five months to finally bottom
out after we hit 17 in June of 2022. Five months later, after FTX, we finally bottomed out.
2018, I think we hit like 5K and change in June of 2018. And we finally bottomed out
six months after that, after months and months of just
being range bound between six to eight thousand so um there is a possibility that we're just going
to be ranging over and over and over again but today there there really is some interesting
price action man um some of the names that we used to discuss on the show like kita
up almost 50 for whatever reason man i don't really keep up with the fundamentals of this
thing anymore but i do know they have some kind of uh unlock in a few days and there is a uh
behavior with some of these tokens that whenever they have these unlocks incoming to
the market um we do end up pumping going into them we also have monad trending up pretty nicely
i do like the structure on that one man and i'm still going to go out on a limb here that there's
a potential that it could end up being like a suey um even
if you just take a look at the technicals and you just pay attention to that it literally looks just
like suey did uh in 2023 a few months post launch and the market is always going to have one thing going for it, and that is dubious speculation as far as going on an L1 and gambling on chain.
And even though there wasn't anything to do on Monad when it first launched, it was actually quite abysmal, the stuff that was going on there.
had only like two tokens go up to 10 mil and they were all they were all these cabal type plays
where within an hour hour and a half they spiked to like 10 to 15 mil and then they just drew down
by minus 90 percent um that was honestly disgusting i think one of them was called chong um that was honestly abysmal man but
i mean same thing has happened on seoul countless times and every single month
people just go on back to seoul to speculate every month even after we topped out uh in september for
the seoul price every month people just came back and they wanted to gamble.
You take a look at base, not much is happening on base outside of Kida and some of the AI stuff that was going on earlier in the year that didn't really last long.
And as far as AI, man, I think it's time for people to move on, including myself.
If that time comes where we experience a 2024 season, then we'll go on and gamble. where months and months and months or even years after DeFi summer, there was a small cohort of community members on ETH that were just hoping and praying that those times were to come back.
Kind of like in 2021 when people were gambling on NFTs,
there were a small percentage of people that were asking themselves,
why aren't my NEO tokens running?
Why aren't my Unk coins from last cycle running? And I think that's when people started to realize
like, it's going to be the new shiny things that outperform in crypto for the foreseeable future,
man. And that's what I have to say about that. But I do think one thing
that's always going to be prominent in crypto are probably memes, man. I think memes are the most
relatable thing right now. They're the one thing that's trending. And anytime we get some sort of breadth in the market it's the it's the sector that captures all attention it's
it's really insane um if you want to talk about quantity it's memes um but i do hope tau could
bring some sort of resurgence to the ai sector it's just it's just right now, it's so dialed in into Tau and its subnets.
And if anyone's ever tried bridging to Tau, then you'll know that the average person is not going to go through all of that stuff.
right now they're still going to be used to downloading their phantom wallet and just going
on chain going on jupiter going on radium and copy and pasting contract addresses and
doing what they do using axiom or photon whatever bot they want to use to go on chain
um right now these subnets even, I'm super bullish on them.
It's just so reminiscent of Polkadot and all those parachains where it was only a small percentage of people that took advantage of that kind of stuff.
And it's really, really, really difficult to bring in normies or new liquidity and just try to pill them on something like tau it's kind of
this weird gigabrain kind of stuff like like a caspa for example or if you guys remember caspa
we were discussing it on the show in 2023 um the only people that were really participating in tokens like that were people that have already
been in crypto for multiple cycles and we saw what caspa hit and the ceiling wasn't as high as
something like an avalanche or like a luna for example. And I think it's because, honestly, it was really hard to get Casper as it was running
It was barely available on exchanges.
And I remember when there was like these supply issues with Casper.
And by the time supply was available and people were able to withdraw from these exchanges, the price was already peaking out.
If anyone traded Casper during the second half of 2023, you'll remember some exchanges.
Most of the exchanges where Casper was available, they had issues with drawing it. So there was an actual supply issue with Caspa.
And with a lot of these tokens on Tau,
I just don't think they're going to be available on exchanges
because no one wants to, rather, not no one,
but I don't really think there's going to be any exchanges
that actually want to go on chain to Tau, scoop up supply and make a market for them on centralized exchanges.
And honestly, sometimes it's better for a lot of these tokens to remain on chain rather than go on centralized exchanges.
And we've seen price action become very different whenever an altcoin is listed or starts getting listed on a ton of exchanges after it's had a huge run on chain.
The price action just becomes very different.
It essentially becomes a different market. Supply dynamics are a lot different. It essentially becomes a different market.
Supply dynamics are a lot different.
And we've seen this throughout the years.
You can even take a look at Pepe, for example.
After Pepe got listed on Coinbase and Robinhood
and all the other normie exchanges um it topped out a few weeks after that
and we can even take a look at whiff as well i'm basically just saying just take a look at any
token that was trending last cycle and saw and see what happened after it got listed on major centralized exchanges all at once
so those are kind of my thoughts on that but really overall i i i do like that we are getting
more volatility um as weeks go on it's not just like this choppy downwards kind of price action.
Um, even though the indices have started to break down, it's not just down only.
I think we were discussing yesterday that there was a possibility for a massive vol event.
Um, and usually that happens when you just have back to back red days and then you just
have some implosion and you just chop, um, for a while.
And as much as I would like for that to happen, um, sometimes the market doesn't give you
I just want the market to rip the bandaid off.
But the fact that we're seeing volatility to the upside
and the downside um at least it signals some names to pile into once the market fully reverts
um we're even seeing an insane day from sandisk as well um which is a name that i still like to
be honest um hy HIMSS as well.
I mentioned that earlier in the show.
But when the market fully reverses and you see the S&P above the early open,
you see the Q's above the early open,
you could already tell what the market would.
Things like HIMSS, things like a SanDisk, for example, as well.
like hems, things like a sand disc, for example, as well.
Even stuff like Iron is having a good day,
which I do think is going to be a heavy hitter
once the market fully just turbo reverses,
But the crazy thing is, is like by the end of the week,
which would be on Thursday because markets are closed on Friday, we could make new lows for the S&P and the NASDAQ on Thursday.
And BTC would still be above 60,000, which is its February high. And we are now, as far as a time basis, we are coming to a time period where it's essentially
range for the same amount of time that we have been in our two previous ranges post-October
So if we were going to make new lows on Bitcoin, it would likely be from here to the end of next week.
If we just take the amount of time that we've been ranging right now,
in perspective to, again, our previous two ranges, right, since October 10th.
So history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
And typically the third leg down in these higher timeframe bear markets, if we're still not bottomed yet, it does usually take a lot more months than people want to believe.
Again, we ranged for five months during our previous two bear markets. And there is a possibility that we could just do this mega seven-month, eight-month range that we saw last cycle, right?
We ranged from March to August of 2023 and of 2024.
We broke that range to the downside, and then we started to trend up.
So maybe this time it was the same, right?
Maybe we just range until midterms.
We have that big breakdown, and then we range up.
But what happens in between from here until then could be very interesting guys
again every single month this year there's always been some sort of runner on chain um and even in
the stock market right even in the stock market there have been plays to uh dabble in the upside
uh dablin in the upside q this is the last day of q1 and in the equity markets there's been oil
there's been energy right xley and stuff like that uh there's been sandisk there's been micron
um so despite the indices trend have been bull markets uh other places, right? And in crypto, I mean, you just have to
go on chain or you would have had to play hyperliquid, right? I'm not really seeing too
much hyperliquid on my timeline. As far as the token itself, I think it's just people using the platform, which is honestly bullish, man.
You could use Hyperliquid without having the token itself.
And in a way, you are indirectly doing your part in making sure that the price goes up.
It's kind of like like binance
right the more people use binance the more fees that cz makes and uh more runway to pump bnb
which i don't even know if that's uh if that's gonna happen um to the degree in which people
thought which there were some people calling for like 10,000 BNB
I do have a dubious take though
that Aster might come back next bull market.
I've got my own thoughts on that.
I do see like CZ is taking a step back
from talking his book, whether it's on BNB or whether it's just on crypto prices in general.
And if you take a look at Aster, the product is kind of half baked.
And whenever it's actually fully usable, which right now it kind of isn't, it really sucks.
I do think there's a potential that should CZ still be around that probably marks up to like 20, 30 bucks a coin.
But I think that's probably going to be after things like Sol and ETH are in price discovery, which I do think could happen.
I do think that's a possibility for Soul.
You would just need something more than memes.
Maybe it's AI, like real AI.
Maybe it's RWAs, which, gosh, man,
that narrative is kind of is kind of cooked because you're now
competing against hyper liquid um when we talk about rwas and tokenization and all that stuff
people are on hyper liquid they are on hyperliquid. They're trading stocks during the weekends.
They're trading at post-market close.
They're not going on ondo.
They're not going on synthetics.
They are going on hyperliquid.
And as annoying as it is, you just have to pay attention to what the market is showing you rather than what you want the market to do.
And that is part of the pain process in being in crypto.
You have to come to grips that sometimes your research is faulty.
Your research can be the best, but the market can show you its hand and say you know what screw your research it
sucks um just take a look at the link marines they did all this research all these dccs kind of like
the xrp people from last from two cycles ago from the 2021 cycle where xrp practically just made a lower high and they had to wait almost eight years for xrp to
go into price discovery by like five to ten percent um so sometimes as bullish as a token can be
fundamentally the market will not care um unless it's something like a hyper liquid where people are actually
using the product and it's an actual app connected to a token which is essentially what hype is um
but anyways guys i just want to welcome you back to Market Talk brought to you by BB once again.
I'm going to go ahead and cook.
I'm going to pass it on over to Evan and a few.
We're going to have some of our other speakers probably come on going into 5 p.m. in the next 30 minutes.
As always, guys, and just want to thank you once again whether you're here to live in the audience
or you're listening to the recording welcome welcome welcome if you guys can go ahead and
do me a solid favor guys if you guys can click the spaces tab and show some love to the space
best way to do that guys is uh just check above up on the nest once you get the spaces tab
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good stuff and of course you guys do always do such a great job at that. And it helps please our tech overlords here on X.
So that being said, I'm going to pass it on over to Evan.
Is this a dedicated bounce?
Or is this the actual bottom, man?
I do like it whenever the market, even if it just has these short-term bounces,
it does kind of give signal to market participants that are focused what names to bid should the
market turbo reverse. As we all know, bottoms are formed when a bunch of puts just start getting piled on massively after significant drawdowns,
which I do believe that's kind of what set our bottom in 2022 when the put-to-call ratio was the highest that it ever was.
yeah that's a good point i didn't even think about that yeah the call i mean that's you know
Yeah, that's a good point. I didn't even think about that.
it's like anything else like it's a good you know indicator but there's obviously never going to be
like a hundred percent you know kind of indicator like i remember it's funny too because everyone
was like waiting for the time to sell and you know 2025 or wherever was when coinbase was listed as
the number one popular app on the app store. And it never happened.
And Bitcoin still crashed.
So, I mean, those things, it's like anything else.
Like, they're good things to definitely look at.
But you got to think, always think of it, you know, in times of a term of probability.
I mean, to answer your question, I think we both, you know, you and I both have been saying
there's a pretty strong case to be made that Bitcoin has bottomed.
And I think, you know, in all likelihood, as long as like your S&P 500 could hold 6,000, there's a strong case to be made for that.
And it looks a little bit better right now because you're kind of making a higher low on Bitcoin.
You got kind of a daily, you know, somewhat of a momentum change, which looks pretty good.
And that could definitely, you know, bring us back up to like 72.
I think 72 is the area where you could reject.
I mean, you got the year-to-date anchored VWAP at 75.
So those are, you know, obviously big areas that you could, you know, reject from.
And, you know, you guessed it.
I've been talking about crab market, and that's what you normally get in some of these bear market years.
You know, you could just go back down to 65 again after 75.
You know, you get 60 to 75K forever is what I kind of jokingly say sometimes, because it could,
it could be a long extended area because, you know, the fundamental thing too, is like
institutions probably won't sell to bring this, you know, all the way down to like 40 K or 50 K
or whatever. And retail probably ain't going to buy this to bring it all the way back up to 90 K
or whatever, anytime soon. So I think that's the important thing to realize i mean higher
time frames do look a little bit wonky they do look a little bit a little bit scary which would
kind of you know you know strengthen the argument that you could you know come lower but i think
short term i think you know the kind of the trade i'm trying to go for is like up to 72k 71k um those
kind of areas because the momentum is shifting you're seeing some you know some good
candles you know some good young candlesticks so you know that's the thing there ethereum as well
i mean nice jump up i think that could easily you know 2200 maybe 2300 are the big points i'm kind
of looking for you know some trigger waves or whatnot right there um eth you want you really
don't want eat to make a lower low i think you really don't want eat to go back to 1500 because that's just like extended bear market making lower lows all that shit like it's
not good in the long term that's that's more like just shit coin territory that it's kind of getting
into if that does happen but i don't think it will i mean it's even looking stronger than bitcoin in
some ways the stuff that's like concerning on on bitcoin ain't is conserving on ETH. So maybe this comes back.
ETH versus like ETH on its pairs.
Like if you're considering like Solana versus ETH,
like XRP versus ETH, even HYPE versus LETH, all that shit.
Like I would say ETH looks a little bit stronger
than most of those right now.
I mean, I haven't really looked at the HYPE-ETH pair,
but I mean, Hyperliquid, it's getting, you know,
somewhat of a correction right now. That one's hard to kind of kind of say i mean i don't see
anything too concerning as of yet you still got the momentum there you're probably going to be
okay you know um as long as bitcoin you know doesn't crash to 50k in that case then you're
probably you're going to finally um hit reality a little bit with that but no major changes nothing
nothing too bad at the moment.
Um, you know, I mean, um, oh, the last, um, oh, oh yeah, yeah. I'll mention trad fi a little bit. I mean, NASDAQ coming up, I mean, you are hitting their first kind of major point at like 577. I
think you're going to get a little bit higher on the triple Q, maybe 580 is what I would say.
And then potentially from there, that would maybe coincide with 72 K for Bitcoin or a little bit
higher from there. You may come down and I think you inevitably probably will hit like 540 on your triple q i think that's
a very you know kind of strong point to hit um and that would that would be similar to 600 on your uh
your s&p 500 6 000 on your s&p 500 high fives that kind of area so i would i would assume i mean this
is such a good day for you know trad fi TradFi. It came up just so much.
But I think you're going to, you know, correct and then potentially, you know, make a lower low here, come down a bit further and finally hit your peaks.
I mean, we could talk about the argument.
I mean, it was almost a 10% correction already for the S&P 500.
I mean, that could have been enough.
That definitely could have been enough.
You're getting into, you know, some more attractive territories.
I would want to wait a little bit, like, to see some more momentum changes more momentum changes in the two-day to three-day, things of that nature.
And I mean, XLE, so you're starting to see some of the,
what's the word I'm looking for?
Some things that illustrate that there could be a trend change here.
XLE had its worst day in probably 10 days or more, a few weeks even.
It's starting to lose structure a little bit.
Even though it's a Bitcoin pair, I wouldn't convert it to Bitcoin just yet, but a week,
two weeks, definitely you may see some more momentum changes where Bitcoin starts to look
attractive against XLE. I think XLE is in probably the twilight of this run. I mean,
it could keep going if you look at the history of this shit, like because, you know, 2004,
2008, I mean, there's cases to be made that this could go up to like 74 you know it's at 61 right now or like 70 so there's cases to be made but um i you know i think i'm probably going to convert
it over to bitcoin in a few weeks so long as we kind of see those momentum changes i mean it's
outperformed bitcoin so far by almost 200% since August. So that's probably
enough. I mean, in previous bear markets for Bitcoin, it was much more, but, you know,
diminished returns for Bitcoin also means diminished losses. So that's probably close
to enough where in the longterm you'll be okay. You know, I mean, I guess that assumes you don't
go into a recession, but even if you do, you know, you're probably still going to be decent in, you know, a year or two.
I mean, if we're making, the thing, too, is if we're making a bet that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high by the end of this decade,
I know there's a lot of people who think it won't.
But, you know, if you're meant to make that bet or even you're going to make a bet that it'll hit 100 at least,
then you should be okay with, you know, some of these entry points.
You know, like I've mentioned a few weeks ago or maybe a month ago,
I converted my gold over to Bitcoin that looked attractive so far.
That's done pretty well on that pair.
So those are the main things that I've been kind of looking at.
I mean, my, yeah, I mean, from a trader perspective,
it looks pretty good right now.
You probably come up at least a little bit more and macro,
you got a decent shot that we bottomed.
I think the crab market awaits us a lot of choppiness in the coming months potentially
apparently there was supposed to be like some fed injections into the market but um
i think uh that usually takes some time to come into the market.
It's kind of like if you remember, soon after that whole put-to-call ratio occurred in October,
Yellen started injecting the treasury market, but it didn't really take into effect until like he won so usually takes a couple
of months and perhaps that coincides with uh with warsh coming in man um he's not really making
much news waves you'd expect him to kind of start making some noise uh like beset did before he
came in and beset is even in um i think they just want to wait for certain levels on the s&p to be
hit um i think an interesting level to do business in on the s&p would be uh the 2025 high as Evan or maybe slightly below 5,900, right around there.
And at that point, like, dude, if Bitcoin hasn't made new lows, then I think we're off to the races.
But if we do make new lows, I do have my dubious take where it's probably going to be like a one-day event, like a huge vol event, like a 1010 or an August 5th, 2024.
If you remember the yen carry trade day, Evan, like Bitcoin went from $65,000 all the way to $48,000.
I think that that dip started to occur right around these levels.
Like we are back in the 2024 range, man, which is really something else, man.
Like imagine walking away from looking at the Bitcoin price for two years and you come back and it's the same price.
and it's the same price um i think at this point like if you've been in crypto for if you've been
here since pre-covid at this point you kind of understand that there's more things to trade than
just btc um speaking about btc man did you see that michael saylor video the strc one it's like
this ai video with with uh with this chick talking about how she made it and
she's on the beach or something like that that was um probably the most cringe post that i've
ever seen him make outside of uh him escaping the sinking ship with the orange life raft
hey zach i'm gonna send you an invite to speak man
zach i'm sending you an invite if you want to come up and talk that ad if micro strategy goes under and sailor loses all of his money and then ends up in prison like alex maszynski or spf it's
because of that ad yeah i don't even know what scrc does man to be honest it's a preferred yeah it's just yield it's
stupid though because i'll just say quickly like i mean microstrategy is already down freaking 80
percent like you're gonna get you're gonna bet that that's gonna survive for a 10 yield like
you're better off just buying microstrategy it's so dumb in my opinion
how does the liquidity for that stuff even work man
you are the liquidity you're yeah that's that's what i'm wondering dude it's a policy scheme
basically i mean yeah yeah um yeah i think it just creates more dilution for Bitcoin. Like all these treasury companies, all these miners, that kind of takes away buying pressure out of BTC.
I call it like paper Bitcoin, to be honest.
I know it doesn't really work like that, right? But when you have new money come in and they look at the market cap for Bitcoin and ETH and all that stuff,
it doesn't take that long for people to discover market caps and all that stuff.
I think there's a lot of people that are here on this app that they quite literally think that new people that buy into crypto are
like these mindless ogres that don't know anything outside of buy and sell, which is far from the
truth. It doesn't really take much for people to discover valuations and beta and all that stuff and so and even you even see like people uh from these btc spaces like
they will tell you flat out that they have more micro strategy than uh than btc and it's because
they want to make money man they want to make money um you're gonna make more money buying mstr
than btc even if it's just like in the short term, right?
Maybe the next like couple of years,
because you really don't know if MSTR is going to be around in 20 years,
You don't even know if you're going to be around in 20 to 30 years, right?
People, they want to have fun.
They want to have fun in the short term.
And they just want to blabber on how MSTR is this godsend to markets when in reality,
we kind of know that when liquidity gets thin, even the strongest structures can break.
But I don't really want a conversation.
I think the whole, like, MSTR yap sessions is kind of overplayed.
Whether he fails or not, whether it goes down or not,
like, I just think it's probably going to have some takeover by America
before it even goes under.
And if it's going to happen, it's going to happen during this administration my opinion um this administration or the next one
i think he's just going to get bailed out um and it'll just be called like trump strategy
or something like that uh wouldn't that be something trump bailing out michael saylor
wouldn't that be something trump bailing out michael saylor i i mean it's probably if it's
gonna if it's gonna blow up i think it's gonna be this year because it's the bear market year
if it survives this year you're probably good until the 2030s or whatever that's what i would
say it's like the next but i don't think like i don't know if they'd bail him out because that's
point you know what I mean if your average bitcoin buy is like what 70 something k 75k
I mean and then you know let's say he does the same shit in a couple more years and your average
bitcoin buy is that like 150k and then bitcoin goes down to like, you know, 80 or 70K, like, you know, you're eventually going to blow up.
You know, you have to be betting that the thing only goes, like, it's, you would have to substantially,
like, the theory is that they would lower on stretch, they'd lower the yields and stuff, so it would be more sustainable.
So I guess it could survive in that aspect aspect but if there's a lost decade for
bitcoin you were talking about 20 30 years and that's kind of how it would happen you know
it would be like say the 2030s is just a completely lost decade like bitcoin doesn't really make a new
all-time high in the 2030s it's just more range bound and you know it has its typical 50 plus
correction or whatever that's where people would get very complacent that's
where you would see you know a lot of shit happening especially if sailors average buy-in
is so high like you would see a really low yield for it to it probably could survive but you'd see
such a low yield in that stretch it'd probably be like two percent a year or some shit and then
micro strategy would just be so lackluster like Like, I mean, yeah, for full bankruptcy, I don't know if it would be tough for full bankruptcy.
But, you know, I mean, you would be arguing, like, can it survive in like what with a price action with the S&P from S&P 500 from the year 2000 to 2010?
500 from the year 2000 to 2010 like maybe i don't know
yeah talking about a lost decade man i think we're halfway through one at least for majors
inflation adjusted um from the 64k top in april of 2021 which i would say was the organic top because i do believe that uh
that 69k top was mainly perp driven and spf um five years i i think a lot of people would agree
that inflation has gone up more than more than 60 would say it's probably like towards 90% for a lot of things, man, globally.
I mean, we still made a new all-time high, though.
I mean, a lost decade, you don't make a new all-time high.
You're not supposed to, you know what I mean?
Like, we still got to 126K, you know. So I guess it depends, though. I see where you're coming supposed to you know what i mean like we still got to 126k you know so i guess it
depends though i see where you're coming from though it's like 100 bucks five years ago is not
the same as it is right now um but if you want to talk like i guess something uh
something um as far as that goes,
if you take a look at the inflation-adjusted high for the NASDAQ, for example,
for March of 2000, we haven't broken through that level yet,
which is honestly kind of shocking.
But I think it happens during Trump's administration is i think his administration
would benefit stocks more than crypto um at least until like the second half of next year which
i think will be at new all-time highs by the end of next year um i think we're going to repeat like
the same stuff that we did last cycle where you actually make a new all time high before the halving.
But this time it'll probably be like a bigger top kind of like Q4 of 2024.
At that point, I think you'll just have more eyes on crypto than you ever will.
And at that point, like anyone who has money
is going to throw money into this market.
And I know it sounds ridiculous talking about it now, right?
It's kind of like talking about new all-time highs in the spring.
You say, in two years, Bitcoin, you get new all-time highs,
you're going to sell a million coins, coins go to bill which all happened right but if you entertain that um during that time period you've been called a crazy person um i even remember in
the summer of 2022 i was saying that like dude people are probably gonna bid memes because all this vc stuff people have lost hope
in them and if they do catch a bid then it'll be a select few um during that period i was talking
about celestia and a few other names i hadn't released during that time and they did well
after their launches even if it was only for a short period of time.
Zach, what's going on, bro?
I just ate a bunch of fucking habaneros, dude.
But I wanted to ask you guys something.
I've been watching a lot of podcasts and just trying to see what other folks are saying.
And I feel like a narrative like I got out of listening to a lot of stuff like the last few weeks,
it's just like when people ask the question,
okay, like what do you invest in the next three to five years?
Like how do you see this thing playing out?
I feel like I'm hearing and seeing
a lot of people say that they don't think the whole energy boom that we've seen in 2026 is a
flash in the pan, that it's going to continue into the back half of the decade. And then
this commodities bull market talk, I've heard a lot about this lately too and some of the stuff that I listened to.
You know, a lot of people are like,
I guess you could say secretly bullish on copper
I just wanted to get your guys' thoughts.
I mean, I feel like, you know,
we focus a lot on altcoins and stocks
and I think there's still gonna be
a lot of great opportunities there.
But do you guys see that playing out?
I mean, and obviously they put Bitcoin in that conversation
Basically, like anything scarce related to energy,
like it feels like that's what a lot of the people
I've been listening to are saying.
Young and old too, like some of the boomers,
but also some of like the new age kind of investors too,
share something similar in that realm.
So I don't know what you guys' thoughts were on it.
I've just been thinking about that lately.
In terms of like commodity,
was there any other examples you mentioned for the commodities that people are bullish
I guess copper is the one I've been looking at a lot lately, but what's the other one
Like I've heard that one come up a little bit.
Like just in general, I guess even gold and silver, I know they're pulling back now, but
people think like this thing's still kind of just getting started in terms of like looking at it the next three to five years.
I mean, if that's the case, like where does kind of Bitcoin fit into that?
So I think that all that stuff, it's probably going to come up,
especially uranium too for the energy theory on that.
I think it's going to be kind of, as long as you avoid a recession, I would say that the S&P 500 Bitcoin probably will be able to outperform a lot of those. I
think that's kind of just greed money, especially in copper, because that's people that missed out
on gold and silver and then they want something else. Kind of like how, you know, it's kind of
like the Holocoin casino a little bit after Bitcoin and Ethereum run, like they want something else
and it doesn't always play out. And when it does takes a lot longer so i would say a lot of that's
probably going to be more crabbish for a couple years and then towards the end of the decade
maybe early next decade even that'll do pretty well like i'm pretty bullish like i mean copper
versus gold that chart generally only goes down so I think that's like a riskier play.
But like uranium, I think uranium, there's something there.
Commodities in general, man.
Like, I mean, housing is kind of taking a hit.
Like, if you consider that a commodity.
I mean, I don't know about commodities in general. I feel like you're a little bit.
Because you got to realize, like, S&P 500 is on sale right now.
You know, it's jumping back up, but, like, you had that 10% correction.
You know, if you're only going to go down 15% total, same with the NASDAQ, like, I feel like there's better deals even with Bitcoin, too, right now.
Have you seen the stock UUUU?
I think it's Energy Fuels.
I think it's a uranium play.
There's a lot of beta plays, like small caps, that are interesting.
I mean, a lot of them have moved up.
They're kind of cooling off now.
But I need to do some more digging in there.
There was one, the biggest manufacturer of coppers in the United States,
I can't remember the ticker.
But that chart looks, I mean, it's been on a ride.
It's pulling back a little bit now.
But I don't know, I just find it interesting because a lot of folks,
I feel like, are now talking about that as like, you know,
a lot of people would have thought, okay, it's just kind of a flash in the pan,
But here are a lot more people thinking like, or saying like, oh, no, this is going to last.
You know, the AI build out and the grid and, you know, EVs and like all this stuff kind of lines up for this stuff to pop off for a while.
They're still in structural uptrends.
Yeah, I'm looking at copper.
Those are still in like structural uptrends. So, I at copper i looked at those those are still in like
structural uptrends so i mean there's some they're hitting roadblocks they're hitting fib levels and
shit you know what i mean like they're not you know yeah like copper is rejecting from a fib
level i i mean i i like to bet i would bet more on Bitcoin right now I'd say Bitcoin was like high and I wanted
to convert it to something and some of these would look attractive but I don't know I feel
like this is just people are getting greedy from the gold and silver rush and they want
something else and it's like these these boomers are just so old man like I don't know but silver
is coming back too I mean they're's showing a little bit of strength.
I would think Kravish for a lot of these,
Kravish just slightly bullish for the next few years, you know?
What are you looking at, Zach, as far as, like, select tickers, bro?
In crypto right now, man, it's all coins.
I just can't even, I can't even get there, bro.
I'm just focusing on Bitcoin right now more than anything until get that
looking better, like, you know, structurally.
And then I could just start taking my bets, man.
Like I, like I was listening to you a little bit earlier.
I was on the, I was on the road, man.
I hope meme coins come back in some ways
because I think to your point, man,
it's like that's what kind of gets retail going.
there's just a lot of distractions right now.
We're talking about fricking copper and uranium
and AI and prediction markets and sports betting and online gambling and poker.
And like, you know, there's just so many ways to be a degenerate.
Even from now compared to like 2021, I mean, I think there's probably going to be like
That's probably the one sector and like D-Pin, like that kind of stuff
kind of overlaps some of it. I feel like that's where people are going to tend to speculate a
little bit. We're kind of getting a little bit of that already, like with Tau and, you know,
Nier had a little bit of a pop. I think a couple pops. Like renders looked okay. Like, you know, some of these ones,
I've heard you mention virtuals.
Like if I had to pick a sector right now,
like outside of memes or one meme
kind of getting people excited again,
I'd probably go there just because like
that's where all the hype and narrative is.
I would have said RWA a couple years ago, man,
but I feel like it's just all moving in-house.
You know, it's all moving to like TradFind.
They're just doing it themselves.
And, you know, I don't know what that means
for a lot of these protocols, you know,
and then shit, I mean, you can just look at it
as if you want to get exposure, get Ethereum,
you know, some of the top layer ones
and you're kind of set there.
That's kind of generally where I'm at, man.
I guess I'm focused more right now
on stocks and commodities than altcoins.
But I mean, that can switch.
I mean, but we need like a Pepe type moment, man.
I feel like that's what the altcoin market needs.
It's like, you know, I think Pepe was born out of the bear market too, wasn't it?
Pepe launched after Bitcoin doubled from its bear market low.
Yeah, Pepe launched April 16th or 17th or 15th, mid-April.
And that was after Bitcoin topped that $31K locally.
And that was after Sol went from $8 to $32.
And you also had FAT, AGIX, Render, Altanx from their bottom of December of 22.
And that was after NVIDIA started going parabolic.
And that was when the NASDAQ was going up like crazy as well.
So Pepe was born after massive local euphoria in the market
and after the Arbitrum airdrop um the the the coin that
launched at peak disparity when everything was down was bunk uh that was an airdrop to
practically everyone who traded on soul and it went from zero to like 130 mil market cap in like a week
from zero to like 130 mil market cap in like a week um and people went to memes i think it's just
the volume aspect man we didn't really see much volume from from any l1 outside of uh outside of Outside of Solana, ETH barely caught a bid until last year.
After we retested like $1,200 and change or $1,300 or whatever it was.
And ETH basically did a 200 plus percent move in like three months, four months, whatever it was.
Which was insane, really. You had every every single dat buy into this thing um it was a
different cycle for sure and dude i think like tradify is just doing their own thing with rwas
on hyper liquid instead of ethereum because dude like they see what happens when crypto bros try to take
the reins for any sector and onboarding Tradify liquidity.
We saw what happened with SBF, for example, right?
I think FTX was one of the first exchanges to offer stocks on their platform.
I remember in 2020, they offered Tesla and a few other stocks on their exchange and
look at what SPF did look at what do Kwan did right with USC he wanted to offer he wanted to
offer hedge funds 20 plus percent yield on a stable coin so even vitalik for example like would you trust
vitalik seeing his behavior right now talking crap about his own space uh i i i don't i don't know man
um i think a lot of people who traded memes went on over to Tradify and they're going to stay there for a while.
Why would they come back in a big way when they can catch like 10 to 20% daily swings on some stocks?
Take a look at Hens. Take a look at Hood. Take a look at Sandisk.
at Hens, take a look at Hood, take a look at Sandisk. They'd rather feel more comfortable
buying into those names than any name outside of majors in crypto because they see what can
happen to some names whenever they focus on niche sectors like RWAs, right? If you remember OM,
Mantra, Mantra Dow, I think it was called, that was a ticker that was trading in the billions
and it went down 95 in a day um and now it's like since then there hasn't really been
anything in rwas to to play into i know there's canton right uh it's just uh man it's i think there there's this euthanasia
roller coaster going on in crypto as far as um as far as enthusiasm it's really
it's like apathy this market has been in apathy for like a couple of years now.
I would say since like March of 2024, it's been a lot of apathy.
If you haven't been hyper-rotational, you just haven't done anything in this market.
But at least we have hyper-liquid, right?
That's kind of like, that's kind of like that's kind of like uh the light at
the end of the tunnel um but anyways uh zach x btc what's up man i saw your request
no worries yeah there was one that popped off zach i don't other zach i don't know if you took
that one for uh marvelous industries it went went 52% since the September call.
That was one that NVIDIA just cut a check for 2 bill for just now.
I haven't heard about that.
How about, did you see that?
Lisa brought it up in my space earlier.
It kicked after she said it.
I don't know where it's at now.
I took a little short-term play on it this afternoon.
Yeah, I mean, Wabi, to your point though, man,
it's like you literally have to be in and out of stuff.
That's literally how you have to play the altcoin market
the last, what, four years, bro.
These days of you just buy stuff and, you know, spin around twice blindfolded and throw a dart and hit bullseye.
Like, I don't think that's coming back, bro.
The market's so watered down.
There's so many, you know, fragmentations in the market now.
It's like, now you got TradFi coming in, like, heavy.
Now you got TradFi coming in like heavy.
I think the Bitcoin ETF even like just really like hurt altcoins in a lot of ways, right?
Like it just anybody who was even dabbling in some of the top alts, I think a good portion
of them just said, screw it.
I'm just going to buy iBit or, you know, like the fringe people that people are like TradFi,
you know, let me get a little exposure and uh i think we saw it like obviously like it was a bitcoin
bull run really um outside of a few few names right and then like just kind of uh if you can
flip a few things in the in the intermediary swing trade or whatever. Yeah, man.
It's just been like that.
you got better gains last year
there's always going to be a small group of people that just dollar-cost average into nothingness.
And, I mean, I don't know what to say to those people.
I like playing momentum rather than just, like, buying bases.
I like buying breakouts um
that's what i have to say about that man i don't really see any altcoin that's like
worth dabbling into by the time they move everything goes up only um
Yeah, I just want to share a ticker that I actually bought today.
And because right now I'm expecting the SPX,
I expect a short-term relief on the spx maybe all the way to around like
7 700 that zone is like uh there's a lot of confluence on that zone 6 700 there's a important
fit level and there's also like 50 and 200 sma aligning you think we've bought them basically
no i mean short term short term um i think we're gonna have like a bullish momentum
the 7700 would be like an all-time high
no 6700 on the spx yeah 6700 on the SPX. Yeah, 6,700 on the SPX.
So I expect like short-term bullishness,
but I still like on a high-time bear market right now.
So because of this relief rally,
I accumulated a coin, not a coin, sorry,
a ticker called SMR, the nuclear
And as you guys know, like NIO is my highest conviction play because if you guys take a
look and pair NIO versus Bitcoin or versus Ethereum, like right now, it's breaking a
key resistance on the pair side.
A new since the SPX went down
Actually, Neo has hold really, really well.
So to me is like a really showing relative strength.
So I've been accumulating that one.
And yeah, so new on SMR are my place right now.
Yeah, I know you've shared Neo up here for some time now, I think.
Pretty sure it's been like a couple of weeks since you first shared it, right?
Yeah, a couple of weeks because this is like a longer term swing trade.
And I expect NIO to outperform Bitcoin, Ethereum, IRON.
iron and because there's a lot of technical a lot of pairs so a lot of different confluence
factors that I'm getting in different charts and also we have oil super high so all of that
gives a lot of probability of that happening
that's based man what about crypto bro like crypto specific what are you looking at
right now to be honest I have only been like
afraid in Bitcoin I'm not I haven't been like touching alts or anything like that
I'm waiting for alts to get decimated especially because on a high time frame I'm not, I haven't been like touching alts or anything like that. I'm waiting for alts to get decimated,
especially because on a high timeframe,
I'm still bearish unless proven otherwise on the S&P 500 and the TratFi.
So because that's my base expectation in the coming month,
like once many altcoins like get slaughtered,
then I'll regain interest in the altcoin market
and and for example like everybody talks about pepe but actually in the last cycle like i remember
bobo and bobo right now is sitting at 4.5 million dollar market cap and there's a key key support all the way back to 2023 2024 so a bubble goes down like
50 60 percent more that'll be an amazing entry opportunity if if somebody wants to take like
more risk on all coins just wanted to share that yeah i think a lot of these on-chain tickers bottom out
well before majors do it's a different market and we saw last year a lot of
on-chain tickers bottomed out in March but you still had a lot of tokens make
new lows the following month last year remember you remember bo do you remember bobo wabi i do i never traded it though
um i never traded it but i i i do remember it it's the what is the bobo is that it yeah correct
correct so that's the inverse of pepe that's the inverse of pepe and of course pepe has been holding
really well i mean pepe right now it's like i, don't call me on this, like $1.3 billion market
Bobo is $4.5 billion, and it's approaching a key, key support from 2023, 2024.
So we get a 60% flush, which I think we're going to get.
That's something that could potentially cut my attention on the altcoin market, just to
now i'm not touching it shiba inu is hitting like that major point that it's never lost like in
history i never even have looked at this but um that's like hit a big point too but that obviously
well it's kind of lost that like big point like so. Like, so, I don't know. I kind of feel like all this shit could fall down more,
which is kind of what you were saying, Ghosty.
Because, Evan, like, at the end of the day, I trade volatility.
And if you guys take a look, just to give an example,
on top of my head, like, Bobo, like, on the Tali sell-off,
after the Tali sell-off low, it had like a 400% spike.
So those type of moves are amazing if you know how to position yourself.
And that's why I'm sharing with you guys that if Bobo flushes 60%, 50% more,
that'll be an amazing risk-to-reward opportunity to accumulate and to potentially get, like,
a really 200%, 300% move again.
Yeah, I mean, they're low-risk, high-reward
if you know what you're doing, yeah.
If you can just, like, get in
and you got to get your stop loss and all that,
but they're very low-risk, high-reward.
It's a big patience game too um
so yeah but i always like that ticker so that's why like i'll quote unquote like gamble some some
money there if we get to that level that i'm saying it doesn't come up for me though bo bo usd
is that it i don't yeah but check check better that one on dex tools since instead of
trading view better yeah i found it now now it came up on maxi the guy maxi will trade any
fucking coin but yeah um yeah it's been in a bear market almost two years now since june of 24
so sometimes like those two-year marks in a bear market show like differences changes so
yeah i mean you'll get a bounce at some point um that looks like it's gonna continue to fall
off a cliff right now though but yeah i mean what's that let's see what it's down it's down
98 so yeah yeah but check that check the April tarot sell-off lows and check the percentage
bounce it had so I'm expecting the same to happen but only I mean I don't say only but
like once we get to that high time frame support all the way back from 2023
all the way back from 2023.
Yeah, I'm looking at that too, yeah.
I don't know if you can see that on the chart.
Are you watching TradingView or where exactly?
I'm on Bobo USDT on Mexi on TradingView.
I know October 23 lows, right?
lows right it's at 0.15193 e-7
fuck i'm not in my screens right now but yeah it will coincide with approximately
a 3 million market cap or 2.7 million market cap something like that
yeah i mean that's the play if you can get there you set your notifications yeah i mean the other
thing that i've been kind of similar situation much less probably less reward well no a good
amount of reward too is like something like bmr like if that holds like you know 17 bucks
and if that holds it's low on bitcoin like that's pretty low risk high reward too i mean that could
um i could see that going now that you're in the charts and take a look at smr which i think we have potentially uh local bottom on smr the nuclear play it has been beaten down a lot from all-time highs like around 84 percent so so it has a tendency of having this like short-term
um 30 40 50 percent move to upside like in a short amount of time
yeah I mean that's let's see what's the market cap and I'm looking at that right yeah three
billion market cap yeah yeah I mean definitely possible man I like I mean the two we I think you it's a
little early you know I want to wait for my weekly bull Dave to kind of show um maybe I was just a
little bit more momentum it's a little bit early I mean where would you set your stop loss on this
I'm curious no so so here's the thing like of course I'm not on my charts and I wish I could show like what I really see.
But in that zone, I have four different trend lines aligning in that zone.
So it's giving me a lot of confidence.
Like it's not a normal support.
And because we have like fallen down into that support, my stop loss would be like um yesterday's candle basically would invalidate uh my local low
theory oh okay yeah that's smart yeah because it's not that far off so that would be like right
around yeah just under 10 but yeah that's i like that because you're betting it's not going
to lose ten dollars essentially which is pretty good i think yeah yeah and because and because
my base case right now is like short term like upside probably movement on the spx the the next
coming days like i i think we're gonna have like that bounce on SMR. So I'm just sharing with you guys.
I'm not, yeah, sometimes it's tough for me.
Like I, you know, to find all this, all these stocks,
but yeah, no, definitely a good play.
That's what I like about this show, man.
We actually talk tickers and things to trade
instead of just like gossip and other crap um have you checked me have you checked me
i mean it's holding really well like to be honest like i'm still considering the scenario
that maybe you're you're talking like oil is gonna top soon which i think
that's the case and then the mean reversion play for oil downside would be ev upside and ev would
be neo right that's kind of like what you're thinking right right because neo i mean i don't
want to get too technical on the charts,
but the chart has been forming like a potential rounding bottom for around two years now. And
we swept some key levels support-wise all the way back in April, all the way back in April, tarry sell-off, all the way back from 2019.
And yeah, man, like if you pair NIO versus a lot of things right now, NIO versus Bitcoin
is breaking out key support versus Ethereum, the same thing, versus Drift, which is EVETF,
So yeah, man, I mean, I think. Or we have our last potential dip to 420 or something like that,
but maybe not, you know, maybe we don't get that last dip.
And maybe I think we could potentially run up to $8 really soon
Yeah, sometimes the market doesn't
Give us what we want if we want to talk about like
Downside targets and even if those downside targets come oh
It's it's a different ballgame, right? And it's kind of like a fight, right?
You don't really know what you're going to do. You can have all these plans, but once you get
punched in the face, it's like all that gets thrown out the window. In this case, people's
faces are their emotions, right? I remember when Luna went to zero, some people were saying just bid Bitcoin
in the teens. And after Bitcoin did go to the teens, oh my gosh, man, it was probably the most
doomerish I've ever seen, man. But I don't blame them either. I don't blame them either i don't blame them some people actually waited until bitcoin
crossed 30 000 to get into the market which was still a good time honestly right um pepe was at
like 200 mil um eth was still at like 13 1200 per token soul was trading in the teens um and to me you caught momentum instead of playing
a crab and uh some people they they'd rather play momentum instead of uh accumulating which teach
their own right everyone has their own trading style but um is there anything else that uh that you guys
want to want to talk about before i uh oh we actually have someone no i'm not gonna bring
them up no um anyways do you guys have anything else that you guys want to mention before i uh
wrap up here i think it's a good time to uh wrap up but uh reason why i'm doing that is because like i did have some other
speakers but apparently they're not able to join um like on their end it says spaces not available
so that's why i mean it's kind of a bummer man like you can be cooking and all that stuff and then spaces could just
have a huge um have a huge glitch on you man um but anyways evan zach anything else you guys want to say before i uh wrap up shop here yeah yeah oh yeah one last thing i was gonna say you know
i was looking at micro strategy versus like xle i know ghosty you guys were talking about potentially oil you know and energy topping out and i mean
what would potentially strengthen that argument if you look at like micro strategy versus xle like
the two week looks even more bullish there than on it's like bitcoin pair so and it was like the
same amount of time um in terms of like uh how long it took to bottom out because that
thing topped in like january 21 microstrategy and sex elite pair and then it bottomed well
the main bottom it made a slightly lower low later at year but it was made of 22 so it's like the same
distance now kind of where you are essentially and then you're seeing like some potential bottom signals so
oil is starting look oil is starting to look weaker against bitcoin i'm not saying they
convert it all over to bitcoin but um it's i'm i'm going to be considering it within a week or two
definitely yeah um i'd say at most probably just fill the wick that we saw in Hyperliquid,
which would be a 20% move here on oil.
But the meat of the move was already done, in my opinion, man.
It's kind of like buying into the $100K breakout on Bitcoin
or $90K breakout on Bitcoin post-election.
The meat of theove was already done.
It was from 48K all the way to that level.
But, yeah, guys, thanks for coming on.
Zach, Evan, Ghosty, and the other Zach.
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
I know it's a bit of a shorter show today, guys, but the other speakers I was going to have on um they're having trouble joining the
space so i'm just going to save it for tomorrow it is a shorter week as well so i know these spaces
usually go on for like three to four hours but um for today there really isn't much to discuss
we're still diddling in the middle in crypto we're just having a little
relief bounce and equities but um i do think we're probably going to have insane volatility going into
the end of the week so probably like tomorrow or thursday as equity markets are closed on friday
but i want to thank you all so much if you enjoyed the content guys if you enjoyed the content for over the last hour and a
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take care and god bless you all bye bye拜拜 Thank you. I promise I won't help Now every single day it's rolling
When you're on and you're on and you're on
Give me your love from the morning
There's nothing you can do
There's nothing you can do to keep it out There's nothing you can do to scream and shout
Leaving for today but you just can't fight tomorrow
Talking about the door but it never stops tomorrow
There's nothing you can do to keep it out There's nothing you can do to scream and shout Oh I'm so lucky lucky I'm so lucky lucky I'm so lucky lucky I'm so lucky lucky you can pull yourself
Come on, you can pull yourself
Now every single day I just wanna hear you say it
Even though you said it would never end