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Market Talk- BUY THE DIP! HODL! New highs are on the way!
Recorded: Aug. 14, 2025 Duration: 1:50:30Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the latest trends in the market, highlighting Ethereum's potential to reach new all-time highs and the U.S. government's surprising accumulation of Bitcoin. The conversation emphasized the importance of understanding market dynamics, with insights into the impact of macroeconomic factors and the role of institutional players in shaping the future of crypto.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I'm going to go. Oh, yeah. Sorrow, all eternity, PTSD claim protection, keep the mouth in plain protection,
Oh, oh, pain, deception, let's break your fight.
All you wear, all you carry, all you wear, waste it right on, oh Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Air force. Music Take your ground yourself to see on the scene So you carry on
All you fear
All you carry
All you fear
With the rock and all you can find on the scene
I need something
Hold on the grip of the pain
Die if you hold on the side Oh What? Thank you. I'm going to go. Music Thank you. Wow. Down and through death, come with you down. Overload, up on a stumble, hit the ground and heavy.
Come on, I'll be so humble, I will call your pride.
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Come on, come on.
I'm dying. Oh I'm going to win the road, watch me the heavy sky, watch me the heavy sky. I'm going to win the game.
I'm going to win the game.
I'm going to win the game.
I'm going to win the game.
I'm going to win the game.
I'm going to win the game. I'm going to win the game. guys what is going on happy thursday happy ppi day we had a print above three percent
so i'm guessing it's all over i'm guessing it's time to pack it up walk away even if scott
is saying that the us of a is to go ahead and do what they can to
accumulate Bitcoin after saying that they weren't going to buy. They are single-handedly market
making the chart with headlines yet again. And truth be told, this is one of the only
lower timeframe pullbacks that something like Ethereum has had over
the last month, pulling back from just under 4,800.
We were basically about 100 points away from ETH making a new all time high.
There they had it.
They had it.
They had it in for ETH.
They all came for ETH today.
We experienced what? A 3%, barely a 3% pullback.
And Bitcoin, man, when I saw that price action from $124 down all the way to $117,
the amount of doom that I saw immediately made me want to call Homeland Security
and honestly report some terrorism because that, my friends, is not patriotic.
So if you guys see any sort of insane takes like a comparison to the 2021 top, then that, my friends, is terrorism.
my friends, is terrorism. And as a matter of fact, my good buddy, Doug Funny, he posted something
quite hilarious on what you usually see on the timeline whenever these lower time frame pullbacks
occur. But I understand you might be looking at the crypto price today and the Bitcoin price and wondering, am I about to put the fries in the bag?
Every single lower timeframe pullback you see, hey guys, hate to say it, but I really don't like
the look of this wick on the weekly over and over and over again. And it seems like that's really been the case ever since we retested 114K back in May, which was an excellent call by Donnie, by the way.
A lot of us did get bullish, extremely bullish at the April lows, but very few called for all-time highs within a couple of weeks of that happening.
So shout out to Donnie.
I don't think he's going to be joining us today.
He's going to be joining us tomorrow for the weekly wrap up as usually does.
But it really seems that would be the case.
Anytime we make an all time high and pull back the slightest bit,
all the, all the soy jacks come out.
The chud jacks have now turned into soy jacks.
That meme was so huge a few years ago and now now it's just faded into irrelevancy, it seems.
But guys, I want to welcome you all back to Market Talk, brought to you by BB.
I'm your host, Wabi.
And today, we've got Max here.
We've got Tucker.
We've got Prometheus.
And Tommy, if he wants to join us as well, man, I'll send you a speaker invite.
And we're going to go ahead and yap.
We're going to yap about ETH dominance.
We're going to yap about ETH BTC.
And we might even yap about everyone's favorite topics, Bitcoin dominance.
So if you guys enjoy the content, go ahead and give the stream a like.
Give it a repost button.
Show some love.
And by the way, I actually asked Tommy if he wanted to see the new Demon Slayer movie with me next month.
And he said no.
And then the market immediately pulled back after that.
So everyone can go ahead and thank Tommy for today's pullback.
Thanks, Tommy.
But anyways, show some love to the space guys best way to do that is by clicking the spaces tab right after y'all do that right above our profile pictures you'll
see a nice little link that says X comm slash I slash spaces go on ahead and hit
that retweet button hit that like. If you're angry at the
market makers, if you're angry at Tommy denying me the opportunity of a lifetime to see one of
the greatest movies to ever be produced, Demon Slayer, hit that like button. If you want the
prices to revert, hit that repost button. If you big haggard to be on the buttons and actually say
boys we're pumping hit that repost button hit that like button leave any of your questions that you
have for anyone on the panel on the purple pill the chat box down to the bottom right and maybe
we'll accept a few people if you guys uh have any insights on the market and that'll probably be
towards the tail end of the space but i hope your your guys's day is uh doing okay hopefully you
guys are not playing on leverage as in a bull market it's very common to have these kind of
corrections where all coins are down 20 plus percent and then they've reversed back to the range highs all within uh all within a day
i actually think there's um someone that drew down his account from eight figures down to like 100k
augula trades rest in peace that that that that is brutal but uh either, I'll go on ahead and pass it on over to the legend,
the eighth wonder of the world, the seven-foot, 500-pound giant,
the market maker of all market makers, Tucker.
What's going on, bro?
You got to hit the bears with the one-two puck mega cap tuck, man.
What's up, Bobby?
Bro, the S&P is retesting all-time highs and i'm wondering
why why is it that anytime crypto is doing good scott percent or trump says
seems like a great time to talk about tariffs might throw a little fudster out there what can i say dude they love using these headlines
to just to just move price around it's wild like they're like oh bitcoin's almost at 125 we better
tell them we're not gonna buy bitcoin anymore you know um yeah it's wild it's wild what were you gonna say oh no i was gonna i was gonna pass the mic um
oh yeah yeah so it's q3 right we're obviously uh in a better environment at least that's what
the price is telling us because price ultimately is the ultimate arbiter of truth and the last few summers, 2022, 23, 24, were all bad.
In 23 and 24, if you weren't trading the same four to five tickers, you didn't really perform.
2023 was the same.
22 was absolutely abysmal.
And it really seems like we're back on track for Q3 to actually being green.
21 was green.
2020 was green.
2019 was great.
2018 was a bear market, so we're not really going to count that.
But for the most part, Q3 is actually pretty well, especially for something like Ethereum. And if we're seeing ETH actually
follow traditional cycles where ETH BTC is actually starting to trend, ETH BTC actually made
a new year-to-date high. And ETH dominance really looks like it wants to test range highs.
And in previous cycles, usually after Bitcoin dominance tops and ETH BTC catches its wins,
you want to see ETH dominance go back to range highs before giving a lot of that dominance back to the broader market.
And that's usually when you start seeing the other's BTC chart start to outperform ETH BTC, man.
So I want to kick it off there and really just set the stage where uh where we can have
like a a conversation here man hopefully hopefully that's um good enough to really have anyone that
sold their crypto today shake in their boots and uh rebuy their bags what's the point of selling
now when prices are just going to be higher that's's, that's, that's, that's my, that's my question.
Yeah, no, it's a good question. I, um, yeah, no, I've been thinking about that. Like,
so I think we're on here, I guess we were on here last week talking about how, um,
I don't know just what the next few weeks might look like. Um, for me, I still think I'm going
to say it again. I still think we have a pretty good window into
the end of the month to continue moving up um eth has done that soul has done that bitcoin's
kind of gone sideways it's looked it's looked good it's looked bad like i don't genuinely like
i don't really care what bitcoin does between like 115 and 125 like Like it just, it just doesn't matter that much, you know, like break
one of those and we can talk, but like between 115 and 125, it's just, you know, it's all kind
of noise. I think it's, you know, very little signal, um, staring at like a Bitcoin four hour
chart right now. Um, especially with, you know, like we talked about these headlines kind of
moving everything all over the place um
but yeah if you want to talk about like eth and soul and stuff like that like
moved up significantly like soul could you know use a little more help but um eth pushing all
time highs like that was that was phenomenal now obviously we were pretty due for a little
pullback right like it pretty much been up only for a while um but like i said i
still think we have a window into the end of the month i what you like the question you asked though
um you know why would you sell to buy back lower i mean i think for going into september like
especially if you're trading more so talking to like the leverage people, like I think there's going to be some,
some signal in like early to mid September of getting short probably.
Right.
I don't know for sure,
but I think hedges going into September because you talk about Q3 being green.
Usually I think it's probably July and August are green and then September sucks. And
last year, September was actually green, but that's not usual, right? That's, that's an outlier.
So, um, you know, long-term, but like, you know, high timeframe bullish for sure. I think we're
gonna have a fantastic Q4. Um, but just wary going into September, right? I think it's probably prudent to, uh,
to say something about that and put some hedges on, but, um, yeah, I think we're good. I mean,
you, like you said, we pulled back like three, 4%, right? Like nothing insane. So I don't know.
I don't think, um, I don't think the top callers are going to be correct that,
you know, right now, right at some point. Yeah. But I don't know. I just, I think back to last
cycle, like, I don't really remember a ton of people calling the top, you know what I mean?
Like, you know, there's a person here or there, but when the top's actually in, you know, most people are looking for either a little bit higher or they've already called the top.
So I don't, I don't know.
I think, I think we've got some room to the upside for sure.
But yeah, it's kind of my expectation over the next couple of weeks.
brother man um what's shocking is that others btc has barely bottomed and there's a lot of
dubious speculation that um the cycle is supposed to end in a couple of months and it's usually from it's usually by people that really just
play these obscure on-chain tokens that top out at like 20 15 mil and it's just so insane how
everyone is going to call the top at the same time more than ever because of something that's
only happened a few times before trad fight inflows before tom lee makes michael saylor
look like an ant before novogratz turns into ray dalio 2.0 before big hagrid turns on the green buttons man so i'm not sure if you've looked at others btc
but if we compare it to when eth btc started to get um off of the low back in early may and really
started to have uh volume churn on eth as flow started uh to get heavy going into the summertime dude others btc is gonna take a
minute for it to get back to all-time highs it's it's well below yeah if you looked at like others
dominance wabi not others dominance i'm looking at eth dominance i think like what bitcoin pull
up others dominance for me or just just look at it on your screen.
That thing's going to take a while to get back to all-time highs.
And if you just look at it kind of compared to previous cycles,
because that's really all we can go on.
I don't know.
We just haven't had that big move yet. And I think you need to see ETH dominance go higher first,
which we're seeing now.
But I think it's just going to take a little time.
Like ETH really has just kind of started its move.
So, you know, I think patience will be key.
But yeah, no, I agree with you on the others chart.
Yeah, I'm looking at others dominance.
It's kind of the same thing as others' BTC.
It's almost the same exact chart, dude.
I'm looking at it right now.
And I told this to the Discord during the call earlier this afternoon,
but the cycle really doesn't get crazy until that breaks its previous all-time high.
And the road back to all-time highs takes a lot of patience.
And, dude, I think the biggest thing that we can take away
with what's in front of us right now is the Fed still hasn't really done anything
with quantitative tightening.
They haven't completely halted it yet.
So it's like
the Fed is still taking away money from the market or restricting money that could be going
into the market. And I just have a hard time really putting myself in some imaginary box that
because it's something four years or whatever the hell the cycle is done that's it even if
someone is like hey i just raised a few billion to buy spot eath i just raised a few billion to
buy your altcoins and just completely ignore that man yeah no i agree i mean i think i think it's going to be a time thing and like we've talked
about on here before i think um you know you and tommy have kind of been in more so in the camp of
you know an extended cycle somewhere into 2026 top out like q1 q2 um for me it doesn't matter
so much like there'll be some things i'm watching but like you know if we get a huge blow off in q4 and you do see others and others dominance just fly
you know then it's probably you know if you see them back even near all-time highs you know what
i mean it's probably time um you know to get cautious right if you see that altcoin froth
like if bitcoin's at 180 and we see altcoin froth you
know like it's probably time whether that happens in december or march it doesn't really matter
right it's just like what you're looking for um i'm i'm more so thinking it's like q4 if i'm
being honest but we'll see tucker so you're saying that there's going to be um more opportunities to play something
similar to goat where it goes from zero to billions or peanut to squirrel where it goes
from zero to billions is that what you're telling me man i mean i have no idea but you know i just
think we're gonna have more like it just froth in terms of the others chart and others dominance
right that's that's what i'd look for for froth um rather than anything else right like when you
see those metrics get elevated um especially like versus bitcoin or versus even their own major like
others versus ether others versus soul like if those get frothy then then it's probably time to get cautious but um
yeah so a rally to the yearly open for others that would be great man that would be welcome
that would be welcome at least that man at least that i think a 2x from here on Others BTC wouldn't even have us close to the January 2018 all-time high for Others BTC,
which is really saying something, man.
It is really, really saying something.
Let me ask you this, man.
What's your top
pick bro for the rest of the cycle is it is it kta top pick i don't know man i mean he has been
great um i mean if you're gonna make me choose one it has to be pepe you know like i can't really
i can't really put anything about you know pepe is fucking awesome. What am I going to say?
Kida, Pepe.
Yeah, if I had to pick two, I'd pick those two for sure.
I'm not sure who wants to go next, either Max or Prometheus.
Either one of you guys can go first, whoever wants to go.
The baton is in my hand, and it's ready to be passed.
Give it on over to Max.
I know he likes to try to get home a little bit earlier.
He's such a gentleman.
I've got so much time.
I mean, Prometheus, I would almost be offended if you didn't go next.
I think that highly of you.
You want me to go? Are you brother i don't know i just like i
want you to feel empowered and valued up here and like is that possible if you don't go next
i'm happy to but i can give prometheus an intro all right guys we're gonna pass it over to the keto legend the man who
stood in front of the bears back in march and said guys hang on to your skis the wind is about a blow
i found a gem it's at five mil market cap the ticker is kta and it ran to a billion. Very, very, very few people have managed to capture a trade like that.
That is insane.
That is escape velocity.
So Prometheus, welcome, bro.
What do you have in mind?
We're in the middle of Q3.
Equities have been absolutely chatting.
Low cap stocks have been absolutely chatting.
And we've barely gone to move here in the crypto markets.
Yeah, some things on-chain have been doing okay,
but nothing like we saw back in the second half.
Not the second half, Q4 of 23.
Where even NFTs caught a massive bid, for those that remember.
All the way up until Q4 of 24 man so what are your
thoughts we got jackson hole also next week the ppi report came in well above the projected number
so people are shaking in their boots man but i know you look at some trout fight stuff so what's
on your mind man wabi what an intro what an intro. What an intro by the legend himself.
The man, the myth, the legend who's hosted BB Spaces for...
What is it?
Are you coming up on two years straight of hosting Spaces now, Wabi?
I think.
Close to three years.
I started here on December 12th or 8th.
December like 12th or 8th something like that I think the first I so I joined the week where
Something like that.
Jerome Powell had an emergency meeting to talk about the economy and I remember that week I
sent a couple hundred emails to the Federal Reserve and i asked them to please ask jerome powell how he
likes to start his day and what he likes to have for breakfast and they actually asked him that
on stage so if you guys have anything you ever want to ask to anyone you admire,
believe me, a few hours of free time can really make a difference.
That's pretty amazing, brother.
That's pretty amazing.
I mean, I don't know anybody that has the strength to send out a few hundred emails
to the Federal Reserve directed directly at the man himself, Jay Powell. But
I'm going to jump on into it, man. What a PPI print this morning. Obviously, it's been talked
about across the platform for the entirety of the day today. But the convenience of the timing,
they just couldn't help themselves. ETH is approaching new all-time highs. BTC is looking like it's wanting to break out.
And what do you know?
Lo and behold, they released some Fugazi report that, as we know, is probably some cooked numbers.
The market was pricing in perfection.
And they said, hold up, hold your horses, wait a minute.
We're going to just sneak this in there. And it was really interesting today where crypto, of all things, reacted more to the report than TradFi itself.
Like if anybody pays attention to the VIX, if anybody pays attention to some of the futures contracts,
it was very interesting that the manner in which crypto digested it, but TradFi for the most part didn't care,
especially in the morning. MegaCap tech was up green on the day. And I more so think that this
is kind of a, you could call it some form of cope, you know, people trying to tag some form
of reason for the markets to pull back, right? You'd mentioned we had basically gone
up straight up in a straight line and we were coming up into a little bit of a supply region
on Solana, you know, just liquidating all of, you know, the short enjoyers in the market on BTC
and Ethereum. And, you know, they come out with it but uh it's more so just a structural
a structural sell-off and retest in my eyes right we're in a growth regime in the markets you have
berkshire hathaway releasing their 13f today the man the myth the man the myth the legend himself
right warren buffett just market dumped not dumped, but market bought five billion dollars of UnitedHealthcare.
Right. We have the Russell finally pushing up through its last little supply zone, you can call it.
And what I'm eyeing for the Russell in particular and the reason why I'm talking about is, as you probably know, the high correlation that Bitcoin in particular has to the Russell.
And if the Russell and low and mid cap stocks are showing the, you know, potential expansion and breadth here leading into Q4 that the charts are kind of telling us they're going to have, then to me, it seems that really dips are for
buying. I agree that at some point, you know, you're going to be seeing some leverage rinses
across the board, nothing to be worried about. If you have high convictions, you know, spot exposure
across the board, you know, let those bags work for you. I wouldn't be overthinking them at this
point in the market as we are entering a different regime from where we once were for the majority of
this cycle previously, right? I don't think we're entering back into this like, you know,
high timeframe ranging environment. I don't think we're entering into some like 2021 style topping
structure. You know, a little bit of a cool
off and rebalancing effects is to be expected. And I posted something yesterday on my channel.
And I really think people are missing the broader, you know, perspective in regards to altcoins,
what just happened to ETH in regards to Tom Lee announcing a $20 billion issuance that
he's going to then swap into Ethereum, they act as if that's not going to happen to all coins.
And I say, make them believe again. And people will believe in all coins again. And we're starting
to see that, right? Ethereum appreciating a price, especially in the manner it has,
makes people, it brings legitimacy to the space.
It just does, right?
It creates wealth effects for on-chain markets.
It, you know, accelerates fundamental and RWA plays.
It brings life to ETH mainnet.
This is something that is bullish for the broader sector and really having a more zoomed out high timeframe perspective on where we're headed is got to be the direction and where you're, you know, and where you're currently looking at the markets.
This is something that is bullish for the broader sector.
I think too many people have been conditioned from price action. The cycle is something I've touched on quite a bit, you know, social, social conditioning and psychological conditioning.
And, you know, I see people so, so worried that we're in some form of topping structure.
If Ethereum tops here, let me just say this. It is a price action that I've never, ever,
ever seen before in regards to the Ethereum chart this cycle. I don't think it stops here.
I think that we actually see 5,700 to 5,900 end of year. I think we see continued buy side
pressure. You talk about 800K Ethereum coins issued annually. ETFs combined for, based off of current accumulation pace, 37 million coins annually.
That's not including BitMine and Tom Lee entering into the fold and the rest of the
treasury companies.
So if you look at it from a supply and demand side dynamic, you got to ask yourselves,
that is a supply crunch 101, right?
That's basic economics.
It does not take a genius to realize what happens when you enter into that environment.
So high conviction plays, you know, sitting, being in them, sitting in them and, you know,
believing that we're entering into a different regime from what we've seen so far this cycle
thus far is really the narrative
that I believe people should be paying attention to.
You've talked about Kida,
another high conviction play for me.
I have other plays that I'm looking at on base.
I'm very, very bullish on base.
I think still all on chain is going to do well.
I don't think I'm agnostic
to chain specific markets here moving forward.
I just like what Coinbase is doing personally and the RWA side of things.
You're going to see Mean Coins heat up on Solana here again with the break of $200 officially
and the move up into $220 and then thereafter all-time highs.
Is Solana necessarily going to outperform based off of the Solana BTC and Solana E charts.
I don't think so, but I still think it does create a, you know, risk on environment, regardless
if Solana is breaking that 210 level, we'll call it right, that we just came up into with gusto,
like you like to say, Wabi. So, you know, we have TradFi plays like Terawolf partnering
with Google as a hyperscaler.
I mean, the list goes on and on and on.
There's bountiful opportunities in this market.
And we look at structures on, you know, major, you know, blue chip tickers within the crypto
sector, you know, Doge, Chainlink, Pepe, Solana, you know, outside of BTC and Ethereum.
And there's high timeframe
bullish market structures like they just are. And really, we're seeing more so a ramp of momentum
to the upside that is leading me to believe we're going to see some parabolic rise again,
and others like Tucker just touched on. So I'm bullish on the markets. I think you sit on your
hands in your high conviction bags. I do not think this is the time to get too fancy in regards to that.
Could you be playing leverage when things get a little bit overheated and really
Did he just cut off for you guys?
Yeah, he rugged pretty hard for me.
Can you hear me okay?
Yeah, I'm sending him another invite to speak.
All right, we'll give him another try.
Yeah.
I think he was being so optimistic that Axe just booted him off.
He was pretty optimistic, wasn't he?
Yeah. Max, I'll start off with you, man.
And I want to ask you, do you think ETH BTC can make new all-time highs?
We'll start off with that.
Do you think ETH BTC has a probability of going to 0.1?
That's a really interesting question. It's easy to say yes right now because of all the recent momentum, for sure.
So there's a little bit of recency bias that I think even the most disciplined and tame of us kind of suffer from from time to time.
But I do.
We were actually talking about this yesterday on Market Check for a brief moment.
And here's the truth is like valuations are incredibly subjective and things can change
really, really quickly. Two months ago,
everybody was super bared up on ETH, super pessimistic on the future of Ethereum.
And it's one of those things where, you know, price is the best tech. You know, ETH was terrible
tech a few months ago, and now it's great tech because the price went up, right?
So we always kind of joke about like the best tech is number go up.
And I think if you have these TradFi talking heads that like these guys are not like us, okay?
They're not like me and you.
These guys can actually move the market.
You know, like this is like when your favorite KOL finds a new shitcoin and he's orchestrating a
media push and he's drawing in hundreds of thousands of dollars or maybe even low seven
figures of liquidity into some on-chain shitcoin. That's what Tom Lee and the boys are trying to
orchestrate right now on Ethereum. Whether they actually believe in the future of it,
who knows, right? That's what they're saying right now. Whether there actually believe in the future of it, who knows, right?
That's what they're saying right now.
Whether there actually is the future that they're talking about, who knows, aside from their own maybe private backroom opinions of it.
But all that I know is that Ethereum is still a relatively small asset.
Okay, like look at the market cap.
It's a fraction of like any random mega cap tech company.
And I would argue that given its potential use case
and honestly, like already legitimate use case,
it should be valued on par
with a lot of these TradFi mega cap tech companies.
I think it's tech that is up there or equivalent with it.
It's totally different than Bitcoin, obviously. But the point it's tech that is up there or equivalent with it. It's totally different than
Bitcoin, obviously. But the point me saying all that is, I mean, we saw Nvidia run 10x in like a
year, right? I remember Nvidia, you know, right after COVID, like, I mean, I remember the prices,
like these things were in the dumps and like the thought of them even like returning to a new all time high or even like getting a little bit above their previous all time high seemed like a really tall mountain to climb.
There is so much money out there.
And when consensus is upwards from guys that actually can move the market, things can really get out of hand really quickly.
Okay, so I don't mean to dodge your question, and I promise I'm going to answer it, but
I wanted to lay the groundwork to my answer with that to begin with.
I do think that Ethereum can actually, I don't know if make a new cycle high, right?
I'm open to, or I'm sorry, I don't know if Ethereum is going to go on
to make a new all-time high. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. My nightmare scenario for Ethereum
is that it does the euthanasia, loss of momentum rollercoaster for the rest of its existence
against Bitcoin, where just every cycle it makes a higher timeframe, low or high. And it just never really
does much, right? I think if Ethereum is going to be a play that we continue to invest in and
speculate on for decades to come, I think it needs to get above last cycle's all-time high and
actually show that that's possible and that this isn't just, you know, like a loss of momentum,
euthanasia roller coaster that just can never pick up steam against Bitcoin.
I don't think it has a choice.
OK, will it do it?
I don't know for sure, but I definitely think there's a good chance that it will get above
0.089.
I think that was the all time or the previous cycle high.
And then we were talking yesterday.
This was a super hypothetical conversation.
And I know that if there's any Bitcoin maxes in here, they're probably going to start running smear campaigns on me for even suggesting this, seeing as I own a company called Because Bitcoin.
But just from a trader's perspective, like objectively looking at the chart, you know, like if you were to go on your trading view and you were to chart the Ethereum market cap against the Bitcoin market cap, not like
spot ETH against spot Bitcoin, like the market cap pair, it kind of looks like it's just been in
like a seven year range for the most part. Okay. It just looks like it's been in a giant, giant range.
It just looks like it's been in a giant, giant range.
And I don't think it's that far-fetched to imagine that Ethereum could at least pressure
reaching parity with Bitcoin.
It is not Bitcoin.
It will never be Bitcoin.
I think saying it's ultrasound money is just like goofy and like all that kind of bullshit
narrative.
It doesn't matter to me.
I'm just looking at it from like a trader's perspective. Okay. And I know how crazy things
can get. So I definitely am expecting it to get above the previous cycle all time high.
We'll see how far that goes and how long this cycle actually lasts. But I kind of view it as
like we had a full-blown Bitcoin cycle.
And now I think we're going to have a full-blown Ethereum cycle. And it might be a little bit
quicker. Okay. It might be a little bit quicker than, you know, what the Bitcoin cycle was. Like
maybe it plays out in three or four months, or I don't know, some guys that I really respect think
we're going to go deep into 2026 but i think there's a ton of runway
you know i i do so i'll i'll leave it at that and we can probably move on to another question or
you know keep talking about but i don't want to like monologue for two hours about it so
there's the answer to the first question
hey prometheus uh you got cut off man did you want to finish your thought oh no i'm good it's
just you know this 50 billion dollar company you know just for whatever reason they can't figure
out the word of their platform but i think max is cooking and i definitely want to give him the
opportunity to do so since he doesn't you know come up here all that much
okay man so i guess max um so the fed i guess we can talk a little bit of macro here right let's
put on our macro hats i'm a macro i'm ready to macro with the boys right now wabi i am ready
yeah we uh we just need a cantro to to to pull up here randomly.
Maybe if I change the title of the space and put another clickbait title on.
He usually likes to pop up in here sometimes.
But, Max, you know, it really shocks me to see people trying to see if Q4 is going to be the end-all, be-all
when, one, ETH BTC is barely getting its bull market started.
Others, BTC is floored.
And I think where CPI is right now, I think where rates are,
it's like two times the amount.
Fed funds rate is at 4.5.
CPI, let's call it 2.4, 2.5, 2.3, around there.
QT is still going on. So we saw what happened during the second half of 2017, where the Fed went neutral, and markets absolutely ripped,
and equities ripped for about a year straight. And at this point, this market is not really the same 2017-style kind of environment where you had TradFi bidding, which you didn't back then, and you have all these ETFs about to come out.
And if monetary policy is going to get easier, then who's to say we can't go deep into 2026?
Tommy is going to be proven right, in my opinion.
And either way, Chud Jacks are going to be blown out. And it is a Trump administration. And that guy loves volatility. He truly loves to
see what the market is made of to the upside or the downside. Trump could just post something
tomorrow and say, too late, pal, better cut rates. I heard he late pal better cut rates i heard he's going to
cut rates or else he's getting fired in usual trump posting style fashion and this market
could be green and something that prometheus mentioned was pretty interesting is uh crypto
reacted more to the to the print on ppi than equities did, which is really telling.
And if you're having IWM press up against range highs,
ARK Invest making another daily high,
and all the stuff lining up for all these IPOs that come out,
I'd say this quote-unquote cycle has a hell of a lot more runway, as you mentioned.
So you want me to macro LARP for – you want me to macro LARP on that?
I can do that.
Exactly.
I'm a macro.
Yeah, well, the first step to macro LARPing is just to get angry.
So let me just get myself worked up and then tell everyone that they're wrong
on the interpretation of the data.
That's step number one. Here's the thing. I actually like listening to guys talk macro
because it's something that has had increasingly more significance on the crypto markets over the
past few years. I don't use it a ton in my analysis because I think a lot of it, like the
print we had this morning that, you know, dropped the market quote unquote, I think it's a lot more
to do with, I'm actually, it's not even subjective in my opinion. Like I'm 100% convinced and I have
a lot of evidence to suggest that this is the case, that
these prints or these catalysts are just used as like positional unwinds. There's a crowded side
every single day. Every minute of the day, somebody's crowded. It's like too many longs,
too many shorts, and they just use it as a catalyst no matter what it is to just rip
someone's face off okay so it's like
i'm not really looking into the print this morning as like a it's suddenly over kind of thing okay um
but you know i'm pretty convinced you could talk with a lot of these macro guys and i'd be like
yeah hello like macro guy you are very smart and very handsome. And he'd be like, actually, if you look at a study published in 2012, there's a science to beauty.
It's a symmetry.
And my left eye is one centimeter lower than my right, which makes me not symmetrical, which makes me not beautiful.
And my IQ is 120.
And I would argue that someone who's brilliant is over 125. So actually I'm not. And
I'd be like, okay, you know, it's just, it's like they, they take something that's actually
relatively concrete and there's just so many different ways to interpret it or like spin it.
Or, um, I don't know. I hope you, I think you guys understand what I'm saying. It's actually
quite annoying, but I guess I can give my thoughts on the extended cycle and stuff like that.
Seasonality has been a little bit of a fade this cycle.
And when I say a little bit of a fade, I mean like a giga fade.
I think that what happened in Q1 just completely derailed the seasonal aspect of this cycle.
So I think that in like the most left curve kind of way, I think you just move the goalposts three months back, right?
So if we typically top in like Q4, November, December, typically, you could maybe push it out another three months.
I think that's just like a really simple vanilla way to look at maybe what's happening. I don't think that this
is going to be some like major credit cycle where we see interest rates drop to these numbers that
like Trump is hoping for. I mean, that'd be cool, I guess, if suddenly they dropped rates 300 points
overnight. I mean, that'd be terrifying in a way. You'd be like, what just happened?
Who is offsides? Like, what's about to snap? But I think you're not going to see some crazy
cycle again where you just see interest rates plummet to zero or damn near. And I don't think
they're going to start printing a bunch of money. But I think you can see really prosperous,
like liquidity conditions, healthy conditions with a strong economy continue for a long time.
continue for a long time. And certainly if this AI narrative is here to stick,
and I think there's been some decent opinions that I've heard about, like,
you know, this is our new 10-year tech boom, right? Like there's these cycles that we continually go
in that just lead to melt-ups. Like in, you know, the late 90s, early 2000s, we had the internet boom, right?
Like the dot-com bubble
where nobody quite knows how to value all this new tech.
And a lot of it's gonna kind of fizzle out,
but then a lot of it's gonna change the world.
It's certainly possible that AI is that new tech
and you're gonna see all these existing tech companies reach much
higher valuations, trying to forecast out what that tech is going to do for their bottom line.
I mean, I think during the dot-com bubble, the Nasdaq's forward PE was like 65 or 70 or something
like that. We're not even trading at half that right now. So in terms of
a bubble or a major overvaluation, we're really not even close to what we've seen in the past
two and a half, three decades. So people saying this is some bubble, I don't really agree.
I actually think as time goes on, I think that you're going to continue
to see valuations become more bloated and outrageous. You're not going to see these
solid companies trading at like 25, 35, 45 times. You're going to see them trading at double that,
and that'll kind of become the new norm. So, you know, I think this can go on for quite some time. I don't think it's going to take that
that long. Like, I don't think it's going to take three or four years for like Ethereum and Bitcoin
to top again. I don't think it's fair to say like the death of the four-year cycle,
because actually I see a lot more similarities of us being more or less on track
with previous cycles, but there has been a lead and a lag. People like to point out how we're
behind and there's a lag. But I will remind you that we were actually leading previous cycles
for the first half of the cycle. Bitcoin topped in, what was it, March of last year,
and it made a new all-time high before the halving,
we were way ahead. If you were to fractal out the previous two cycles, 2020 through 2021 and
2016 through 2017, Bitcoin was actually outpacing from its bear market low the previous two cycles.
And then it went through an eight-month cool-off, which was grueling, right, which was terrible. But we've seen both so far this cycle. We've seen
quicker off the floor, being quicker from the bear market bottom. And then we've seen these
prolonged ranges. And now we're slightly behind schedule because of what happened in Q1.
So I definitely think it's possible we have an extended cycle,
but I'm not really of the opinion that this is going to be like a top end of 2026. Like,
I feel like probably end of Q4 into Q1 is probably going to be some sort of blow off,
is my hunch, you know, and wherever asset prices go, they go. But yeah, I don't really think, I don't think it's going to
be some like 12 year cycle, but I'm happy to be wrong on that. I mean, it'd be good for our
business, right? Like it's not fun running a business like Because Bitcoin during a bear
market. I promise you that. So I'm all for it. I just don't know if, I don't know if it's even
possible to forecast out those conditions quite yet, truthfully.
Well, we have the bishop from the Church of David Hunter on stage that can perhaps elaborate or even refuse to elaborate on a longer cycle.
The destroyer of Chudjax.
Tommy, what's going on, man? Welcome.
What's up, Bobby? Great to be on the show. I might be a little out of breath. I just like ran up the
stairs, but no, I hope everybody is staying safe, having a good day. You know, if you were along the
top a day or two ago, probably not feeling great now. But yeah, I mean, I think don't get lost for the bigger
picture. You know, a lot of my colleagues have kind of already touched on it. I think
that we are headed into probably like some form of super cycle for risk assets. I know that's a
very, it's like a dirty phrase to say, you know, super cycle, melt up, whatever. I just think,
and we can kind of start with like the macro and
work our way into the crypto markets but like the crux of what's driving it is you basically have
the administration stair-stepping equity markets higher uh and these macro events like ppi cpi
FOMC, they're kind of just being used purely for narrative purposes, in my opinion, because
fomc they're kind of just being used purely for narrative purposes in my opinion because
we really haven't had anything consistent for a few weeks now. I think that's by design.
They're trying to make sure, on one hand, that the market doesn't climb aggressively enough to
really pump inflation. And then at the same time, they have to make sure not to nuke the market, right?
So we know we have all these risks present in the market.
We have to simultaneously talk down the market but not cause a recession because we know how much the U.S. economy is inherently tied to markets.
So I just think there's this push-pull relationship going on right now.
And eventually, you know, one of those sides is going to win out i i personally clearly i think what's going to win out is likely inflation uh they're going to lose
the ability to keep a cap on this market at some point and it's just going to go higher
i suspect that begins in q4 um could it happen in q3 i guess i'm not really like i'm not really one
of the people who's going to tell you
the cycles over in like three or four weeks, because I've kind of been working off this thesis
since basically last summer. So I just think it's going to require some time in the market.
I think Prometheus said it really well, like just kind of holding assets that you think are going
to perform, because who knows when alts are going to actually perform, right? I mean, we clearly saw, in my opinion, over the last few weeks, the thesis that I've been discussing on
X and YouTube, really everywhere, like look at the ETH pairs, ETH BTC, SOL ETH. Those pairs were
communicating that a massive move in ETH USD was coming. We've seen that, but we haven't quite
seen the same dispersion within the altcoin
market that we have at prior points at the cycle. And I would just point to the difference between
ETH Bitcoin and sole Bitcoin, right? Like ETH Bitcoin looks to me like a macro bottom was put
in. Sole Bitcoin, I think, will continue to go lower. And if that's kind of a statement that
speaks to where heavier beta fits into the
equation, I know it's not going to be like exactly one to one. But I mean, that's kind of why I think
we haven't quite seen the same dispersion among all coins. But I do think that period is coming,
that really frothy period. I just think the longer that we kind of just continue to stack these
high time frame consolidations on top
of each other for something like Bitcoin, probably just means we are going that much higher before we
actually see that rotation into altcoins. But I put out a video of this today. I do think Bitcoin
dominance is topped probably for multiple years, actually. As somebody who was very, very bullish on Bitcoin
dominance for basically the entire cycle, I kind of changed my tune a few weeks ago. I could pick
up what ETHUSD was kind of communicating, specifically that sole ETH pair. Some of you
are probably sick of having to hear me talk about, you know, just flooding soul. But yeah, I do think that we've hit a cycle high for Bitcoin dominance. Eventually,
we'll retake those highs in a few years. But I think we have quite a bit of altcoin froth coming
here over the next few years before that happens. So I think everything is kind of like,
we'll wait and see. I can't tell you exactly what's going to happen over the next few weeks,
maybe the next few months. But I feel pretty good about the fact that markets are going to be repriced higher.
I don't really subscribe to the idea that markets are at historically overvalued levels because I think we're seeing a fundamental repricing of not just what is leading the market, but what is actually the U.S. economy and where
are we headed?
Do we really think it's these industrials that we typically see in the Dow Jones?
Or do we, I think the more fair reflection is that we probably just continue to see these
big tech companies go up because what is actively happening over the last few months, Palantir
is a direct reflection of this. You're kind of seeing big tech and the government merge into this autocratic technocracy, we'll call it. And I
think that is still yet to... Say it again? Skynet. Yeah, I mean, potentially, right? I mean,
it's kind of along those lines, just kind of where the world is headed.
You can say it's bleak or positive, I guess, depending on where you stand. But yeah, I think there's quite a lot of juice still left in the tank.
It could take a little bit longer before we see that true dispersion among things like altcoins and heavier risk assets.
But I think it's coming.
And I think we are in a much broader, not just like liquidity cycle for markets that hasn't quite ended yet, in my opinion, but also a broader adoption cycle for crypto.
And I said this the last time I was here. I don't think that you can just I don't think that you can confine the adoption cycle for all of crypto into just a four year window because we have a sample set of like three cycles that happen to play out in four years.
I do think that this time will be different. I think the gains will be quite large
eventually. And I do, you know, on a more bleak note, and I'll probably end with this,
I think kind of like the crux of all of all of these risk assets going higher is just going to
be people at some point, because again, I, you heard me speak kind of like
at the beginning of this spiel. I think eventually they're going to be unable to keep a cap on this
market and things are going to go higher, which means that inflation is probably going to go a
lot higher. And at a certain point, you're just going to want to be in the market because it's
like, yeah, inflation is high and that is fundamentally bearish on a high enough time horizon
and probably for your spending power.
But the only way to beat it is going to be in inflation
or is going to be in risk assets that are appreciating.
So that's my view on the market, Wabi.
I do think the cycle will last into 2026.
I don't know where the top is.
I don't know when the top will be.
I do think we will go higher uh over the next few months
the next few weeks but uh yeah that that's it for me guys tommy so what does that mean for all the
ched jacks dude it's gonna be really funny because i was just telling this to my wife i don't know if
she quite grasped what i was saying but i was like the real doomer bet is not to, like, bet on a Michael Burry-level recession. It's actually to get disgustingly long the right tail with the understanding that, you know, what's really not priced in the markets is if we melt it up so aggressively that you flip the skew on the VIX and right tail calls just absolutely print.
So I think that's the real Doomer bet.
Either way, I think Chud Jack's up or down, they're going to get cleansed at a certain point. And I've said this before,
you have the administration, I think, did a good job in April of just cramming every negative
headline into a very short window of time so that when nothing actually happened, now everybody's
bidding back up the market because that's now a happened, now everybody's bidding back up
the market because that's now a consensus, right?
Like nothing is going to happen.
We had everything happen, but nothing happened.
And then eventually everything is going to happen at once.
And you're going to have Chud Jacks just like screaming the whole way down while they bid.
And then just like everything is collapsing.
But that's we're far away from that point.
I do think it's coming, though.
This is not a Chud Jack administration. That's what I'll end on. Yeah, I tweeted something like that
along those lines a few days ago. The true Doomer scenario is all risk on assets. Crypto and low-cap
stocks catch a perma bid over the next few years with rapid dollar depreciation
while retail is priced out of the market
and they barely afford to take vacations on credit
and live with roommates in a small apartment.
That is actually a doomer scenario, man.
Wouldn't that equate to a longer COVID-style cycle?
The COVID cycle basically priced out a lot of retail out of BTC
and has forced them to speculate on some of these proxies
that have recently come out, whether it's minors, MSTR, stuff like that.
But I got Matt up on stage on stage matt what's going on man
oh and and by and by the way it's a if we take inflation adjusted metrics which is
which is what i go by um the nasdaq the mcnazzy has not hit its march of 2000 all-time high
has not hit its March of 2000 all-time high. Inflation adjusted, it would be just over 30,000.
So that's a 50% move from where the NASDAQ composite is right now. Inflation adjusted
compared to the March 2000 all-time high compared to now. The Nasdaq composite all-time high in March of 2000
was about $5,000. If you take the price of a McChicken since that time, it is well over 5x.
I think a McChicken was like $0.70. Now it's like $5. But that's another metric that we can
touch upon maybe in the future, the McChicken index.
I'm not sure if you guys remember, but there was a time where we used to have Blockchain Boy on our YouTube.
I think it was like every Friday or something like that.
And yeah, that was a pretty interesting metric.
There's also the McRib.
Whenever McDonald's brings back the McRib, markets usually tend to melt up.
And I think they actually brought back the McRib.
I think it was like last October or last September.
And we all saw what the market did.
But Matt, what's going on, bro?
How are you feeling about today's strange price action?
One pullback yet again, people are freaking out.
I feel like this was exactly my point yesterday, Wabi,
where, I mean, you sell right at resistance
because what if you don't break out that day, that week, that month?
Now, you know, instead people were longing Solana above $200. Instead, people were longing
ETH up there at $4,700, $4,800. Instead, people were longing Bitcoin at $122, $123, $124.
That was the point I was trying to make it that uh
yesterday there where like you you've killed it with the eth trade a 2x maybe some of you a 3x
and now you've run it all the way right back to within a breath's hair of new all-time high
but my whole point was like lock the profit in lock the profit in make the
bulls push this thing the last five percent meanwhile you locked in a 3x because what if
what if they just can't do it this time and you get a 20 correction well you can you can get back
in your whole same position even bigger or if if they did in an alternate reality, let's say they did punch a
hole through 5k last night, well then great. You can just buy back in with a close above breakout,
with a close above resistance. And what'd you miss out on? 5%? Barely? Again, to my point,
this is crypto, this is Bitcoin.
People don't get out of bed for 5%. People are looking for 5x.
So, I mean, yeah.
Do eventually I think Bitcoin goes higher?
Yes.
Do I think eventually Solana and ETH and et cetera go higher?
Yes, absolutely.
But that's cold comfort for the people who leverage long right into resistance.
And maybe some of them are OK.
Maybe some of them are definitely liquidated.
But, you know, that's what makes markets.
I shared up in the nest, like, short term, I'm bullish.
Medium term, I'm bullish.
But that TA, Bitcoin is due for another major correction and the next one
uh might be the start of the next bear market it really might um i think we i i'm hoping for 150k
i think we'll get it but after that like that's some that is one massive multi-month bearish divergence.
And I can't pretend it's not bear.
We all pretended in 2021 we didn't see it.
But look at that shit.
That's not great.
It's really not.
I feel like I'm not selling a thing.
I'm bullish.
But I really feel like, look, we've got the rest of summer and fall to make whatever gains you're going to get.
And then I think you either sell and take your profits into Bitcoin, or if you're scared shitless, fine, go to cash.
But you better be locking in profits aggressively this fall because, man, that's some bearish TA.
That really is.
And we all know what happens
if Bitcoin just takes a 20% or 30% correction.
Like that's bad enough, you know?
But if the next one is the start of the bear market,
like you certainly wouldn't want to be too far out
on the risk curve if it is.
So I would absolutely lock in profits going into this fall as we get to the,
especially if we get anywhere near the holiday season. But this is some bearish TA on the
medium long term. We're going to be due for a large correction in Bitcoin. You know that Bitcoin
takes 25% to 30% corrections. We've seen it all cycle long 2022 2023 2024
even the early one this spring in 2025 you know that's what it does minimum so like don't be
surprised don't be surprised when one happens to the back half of this year
matt so you're calling for top here no no look at the chart I'm saying 150.
I I generally agree with Matt and one of the more telltale signs that has me slightly concerned I'm
seeing the loss of momentum or just like the magnitude of each move for Bitcoin dwindle a little bit.
But I hate the look of the MicroStrategy chart.
I was talking about that on YouTube a couple days ago.
Looks identical to the top that we saw last cycle, where you're seeing not only a divergence
like for Bitcoin on weekly RSI or like higher time from RSI side you're seeing a structural dynamic and divergence that you saw
with micro strategy last cycle where bitcoin has made recently weekly higher high and micro
strategy just was unable to basically get off the mat and more or less confirmed a higher time frame
lower high i'm pretty concerned about the micro strategy chart to your point, Max, I just shared it up in the nest.
Have a look.
Is that what you're talking about?
Like, look at that shit.
It's repeating last cycle.
It's so bearish.
Let me see.
The last thing I see in the nest is Wabi's.
It might need to refresh.
It just went up.
Let me, yeah, let me.
I posted it yesterday, but I shared it up in the nest.
Oh, yeah.
Okay, let me see. Okay, yeah, but I shared it up in the nest. Oh, yeah. Okay, let me see.
Yeah, that's exactly what I'm talking about.
It can take months for something like that to actually play out.
And by the way, we can see altcoins go absolutely bananas while Bitcoin is losing momentum, distributing, micro strategy is rolling over.
It doesn't mean that we're not going to see a blow off in risk.
Right. And it also doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't go to 150K. But I am also very, very aware
that we are in like inning seven right now. We are on hole 14 or 15. OK. And by the way,
that's when altcoins go crazy. That's when Doge is going to rally, you know, 10x in 90 days or something like that.
Those are the conditions that we see.
You're unable to move the king.
Bitcoin is a little sluggish.
It's due for a cool off.
Bitcoin went from 15k to 124k.
You know, like it's been an amazing Bitcoin cycle.
Okay, absolutely amazing.
So there's nothing to be like upset about, right? It's just
like markets respect physics. They respect, you know, like momentum, psychology, Fibonacci, like
it's going to have a high timeframe correction. And I think that micro strategy is very, very
revealing to me right here. So I think I'm kind of playing it right now. Like we are not going to have a high time frame correction. And I think that micro strategy is very, very revealing to me right here.
So I think I'm kind of playing it right now.
Like we are not going to have some crazy extended cycle.
Matt, I think maybe you missed my initial spiel.
I'm okay with pushing this out into Q1 of 2026, just because seasonality has been such
a fade and Q1 got totally derailed.
So like everybody's thinking like classic October,
November, December, you know, risk blows off Bitcoin tops. That's it. We could see it push
back in like the most left curve of way. Like we missed all of Q1. Maybe we extend out into January,
February, March. That's fine. But I'm not thinking this is going to be some like 12 year cycle, you know, where everything
just goes up forever.
And like, I just, it's too early to call that, I think at this point.
So I'm playing it like Bitcoin has a little bit of wiggle room left to the upside.
That's fine.
I'm not interested in Bitcoin here personally for spot holdings.
I think that most of the meat is probably done.
Like I think it can still go to 150 or maybe even a little bit higher. I don't know. I cannot get over the hurdle of the micro
strategy chart. And I think that we're probably out of this little gully going to see Ethereum
blast to like seven, eight, nine K. Then you're going to see meme coins go crazy. And this should
all be done by like, you know,26 honestly which by the way is not me
being like sell all your stuff right now it's more just like you know what like you you can see what's
happening to the bitcoin chart you can see you know what happens when ethbtc starts ripping
right that like go back and look at what happened, like how much time you have left
from a cyclical standpoint when EFBTC starts ripping. And by the way, Wabi always says this
too. When Pepe pumps like 20X, you've got about four to six weeks to get out of the market. Okay.
I'll leave it at that. No, that's, I think that's smart. I think that's wise.
I feel,
I agree with your analogy that like,
it feels like we're in the third quarter late in the third and we're trying
to win this thing in game plan for the fourth.
But I mean,
after the fourth quarter,
you know,
if you haven't,
if you haven't made moves,
if you haven't set yourself up for the win, like it's too late.
It truly is.
Like, you're right.
Like, come on.
Earlier this year, they were telling us all about how, you know, Bitcoin to $200, $300, $400K.
No, not even close.
Come on.
This year is more than half over.
I said $150 early in the year.
And boy, we might barely squeak that out. Barely.
Just, you know, let's just be real. Let's just talk seriously. I agree with your point on
microstrategy. The problem with microstrategy is if they can't keep increasing their market cap
and can't keep increasing their share price, their buy power
doesn't get bigger.
So Bitcoin price sure keeps marching higher, but MicroStrategy's buying power is stagnant.
In fact, it's lower than it was in November 2024.
So that's a problem when MicroStrategy is, let's face it, still the single biggest buying pressure entity for Bitcoin because they only buy and they never sell.
We still don't have anyone to match its size, even if you add up several of these Bitcoin treasury companies.
So I feel like there's a timer on this up-only bull market for Bitcoin. And again, I'm not going to be selling any of my Bitcoin. I'm going to be selling all the more riskier shit and taking profits into Bitcoin.
has 20% to 30% corrections all the time.
We are going to be due for one in the back half of this year.
Maybe it's bigger, maybe it's not.
But how far do alts and XYZ crypto correct
if Bitcoin takes a 25% nose dive?
Yeah, yeah, I totally agree.
Completely agree.
And that's a really salient, important point
about the micro strategy mechanics
where people are always asking like you know why you know like when bitcoin was so cheap why were
they not buying you know more bitcoin you know what i mean and it's like it all has to do with
their with their share price and it's when MicroStrategy runs out of ammunition, when they're not trading at a tremendous premium, you know, like when their stock is not going
parabolic, like there's no more ammo in the gun, you know. And by the way, I don't know if you've,
I don't know if you agree with this, Matt, I'm curious to get your take on this. But
I actually think that the next Bitcoin bear market is going to be horrific because I think there's a
lot of these new Bitcoin treasury companies that are not going to be able to diamond hand and hold
up under pressure like Saylor did last cycle. And I think you're not going to see large holders
puking like in normal bear markets. You're going to see institutional grade puking,
people bailing on their new corporate treasury strategies that right now you know are posturing
and puffer puffing their chests out like it's no big deal but we'll see how they feel if bitcoin
pulls back 60 or 70 percent and they bought damn near the top so they'll have no way down the road
but i 100 no i 100 agree with you they they have no choice uh i keep looking at you know this
company or that we announces hey we too are a Bitcoin treasury company or Ether, etc.
But do they have positive cash flow?
Are they net income positive?
Oh, hell no.
So their strategy works in a Bitcoin bull market.
Yeah, because they'll buy Bitcoin and then shareholders bid up their stock, which lets them buy an even bigger tranche of Bitcoin. But that only works in the bull market. Just to your point, as soon as Bitcoin has a correction, all of a sudden they lose all their buying power. shareholders start dumping those companies because they know, look, they're going to
outperform to the upside in a bull market. They'll outperform to the downside in a correction
or heaven help us a bear. So these are not long-term investors in, I don't even know the
names anymore, like Nakamoto, Kindly, whatever, and Semler Scientific and all these fly by night johnny come lately's
they have no business model for a correction or bear market so yeah they're gonna you're gonna
see some uh sad situations um uh i would say 2026 for them bitcoin will be fine it's going to be fine well well we have a another bear market
yes it's only a matter of when um bitcoin is not immune from bear markets will it be a a drawdown
larger than 50 yeah probably because look at all these fugazi treasury companies that will not be
able to uh keep the lights on unless they either sell themselves or sell their stack.
But will Bitcoin eventually go higher five years from now?
100%. 100%.
Matt, I got a question for you, man.
How is it possible that everyone is going to try to time the top in Q4 of this year?
that's that's my that's my biggest question I can't they won't I agree
That's my biggest question.
They can't. They won't. I agree.
dude like like you know some of the other shows that are hosted on this
platform and you know they're usually the ones that you know scream into their
mic say a lot of curse words and really don't understand the way money works
they just talk about there's just there's a saying that that you that you
love to say Matt that your meme coin your all coin is not indicative of of the broader market right
and just because xyz token rallies doesn't mean that your token is supposed to rally
and if we take a look at the way markets have worked throughout the last few years and i said
this on the space that you were in, where Tina was
in, where Joe was hosting, and everyone was screaming at each other, saying that the S&P
could go all the way down to 3,600, and Powell wouldn't bat an eye, and this, that, and the other.
And I'm like, guys, anytime the S&P has corrected this aggressively in this short amount of time, it marks the start of a new cycle.
And what's happened since then?
Robinhood has pulled off a 3x off the lows.
ARK Invest is now at highs not seen in years.
And it's still not in price discovery.
IWM has rallied back to its election range highs.
IWM has still not had a weekly close above all-time high in years.
And again, we look at others BTC, like that is the VIX for bulls, right?
Like as the VIX, when the VIX peaks, that's max bearishness.
Others, BTC is like the inverse VIX, but it's for the crypto market.
And I have a hard time seeing all that play out in just three months.
Because you are talking like hundreds of billions going into this crypto market in order for others to go back to all-time high
it's been a btc bull market it's been i mean now it's the start of an eth bull market perhaps
solana is next maybe hyper liquid is going to be a beneficiary of of of that market cap wherever it
goes 200 300 bucks to add on to things like total three and others btc but
for others btc to get back to all-time highs dude or even does it but does it have to but does it
have to like i mean i i i think so for like others others us others usd all-time high yeah i i think
that probably happens no no i was gonna say others right others btc all-time high? Yeah, I think that probably happens. No, no, no, I was going to say, right, others BTC all-time high.
I don't know.
That's like, to me, that feels a bit of
trying to have your cake and eat it too.
I mean, you know, is Solana BTC
ever going to make a new all-time high this cycle?
No, probably not.
Is ETH BTC going to make a new all-time high this cycle? No, probably not. Is ETH BTC going to make a new all-time high this cycle?
No, probably not.
So why would I say others BTC will happen or mark the top?
Like, I don't, that's, and that's really not how people look at it.
Like, they still really do trade in USD.
They denominate their bills in USD. They pay for their options in USD. They denominate their bills in USD.
They pay for their options in USD.
They certainly pay their taxes in USD.
They make their money and payroll in USD.
Yeah.
We'd like to see like, oh, look at this asset versus Bitcoin.
It's actually losing money.
I mean, it's actually losing value to it over five years, over 10 years, but
like, come on, everyone's actually still comparing charts and flexing their gains in usd so
yeah i'll stick by that statement matt you think well i think i know i think another important
point to put there is no no nothing says that everything has the top at the same time
No, nothing says that everything has to top at the same time.
Look what happened to gold.
Gold rallied first.
Gold rallied had its 100-day parabolic run, 100% in 100 days,
which is incredible for a $20 trillion asset.
Gold's been sideways for six months since.
You know?
Yeah.
Gold's done.
Bitcoin's probably going to do that.
But that's my point.
That's my point.'s my point like i
love i love bitcoin i'm a i'm a believer in it short medium long term but you could call it the
treasury companies you could call it animal spirits you can call it a lot of a lot of things
for your cycle hype whatever but it is easily conceivable it is very possible that bitcoin has a
It is very possible that Bitcoin has a fourth quarter blow off top here at the end of the year.
And then you can still watch the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rally on farther, but Bitcoin might be done in a correction or consolidating sideways.
Yeah, I mean, dude, with the whole treasury company debate, I was a massive skeptic a few months ago, and rightfully so.
But, dude, we saw Novogratz market dump 80,000 Bitcoin in like two or three clips, and price didn't even budge.
And I have a really rough time thinking that we're going to see the 2022 animal spirits come out, which was obviously egregious because for the most part, Bitcoin finished its bear market in June of 22.
It bottomed out at 17.1.
Big deal.
It went to like 15.2, 15.3.
Wow.
A 15% difference, which isn't really that big. ETH bottomed out in June of 22.
And the equivalent of that happening again
would be Saylor going to zero, I would say.
Not so much like these smaller companies.
And we got to remember, dude,
3AC and all those people had like tens of billions.
And they all happened.
I'm sorry for laughing, man.
I really shouldn't be.
But like the volatility that we saw during those events were massive.
And you know how it is, Matt.
You have these big events that have happened over the last two years.
And then the macro spaces come up.
The weathermen pop up.
And they're like,
oh, here's the start of a lost decade.
Here's the start of a massive correction.
And it's like, bro.
Yeah, they overreact both ways.
It's true.
And Matt, what has been the trend since,
and dude, I don't even trade equities, dude.
Only thing that I have done in the equity markets,
I think back in February,
I got some Costco and i got some hood
that is all i've done but i've i've me you've been on this show for years i've i talk about
equities all the time quite a lot actually uh that's why the show is called market talk and
the trend over the last few years has been the market specifically crypto is a good bid whenever you see the s p have a local correction
of call it 12 13 11 if it's not some like huge macro headwind like tariffs and even then if it's
a trump administration then we all know how these trump downturns occur. It's usually a six to seven week bear market. And
that's the end of that. And at the bottom, it's peak fear. And it's the end of that unless
it's 2017. Unless it's 2017, 2018, then, you know. And I'll finish off with this. Instead of Trump
controlling the market, it's Scott Bessette. In 2022, it was don't fade the Fed. Now it's don't fade Bessent. He controls the money supply. He is the weathermen. And the weathermen are now the same people that thought that NFTs were going to replace the Mona Lisa.
All the weird Web3 people.
Not to throw any shade, but when you have such a large demographic of people that came into the space last cycle,
now starting to say, oh your cycle for your cycle this for
your cycle that but they don't even know that like robin hood has a stock and to me it says that like
a lot of people are going to be caught off sides and a lot of people would be caught off sides if
if number one gold goes back into price discovery and bitcoin follows gold where it is right now and starts to
go into a multi-consolidation phase for months and that's what there's a lot there's a lot to
respond there let me let me try to hit some of those points that's why okay so up in the nest
that's why i said call it the four-year cycle the presidential cycle the business cycle your mom's
cycle like it doesn't i don't i don't care what you want to call it.
Just the TA is bearish medium-long term.
It really is.
We are coming up, call it the back half of this year,
holiday season, whatever, sometime in pre-4.
Maybe Max is right.
Maybe it happens Q1-2026,
but we are due for another big correction.
And we've been lucky.
They've only been 30 percenters, 25 to 30 percenters for the last three years.
But I mean, all you need is enough whales to decide good enough.
And it's the start of your next one year bear market for Bitcoin. And I get it. I get it.
There's so many things to be positive macro wise. And it doesn't mean that Bitcoin is dead.
Again, it can simply mean like gold, if it has a parabolic blow-off top, maybe the next six months to one year is just sideways consolidation.
It doesn't have to be doom and gloom.
But just like gold had its parabolic run
and a bit of a blow-off top,
it's the same damn price it was over six months ago.
And you've got to respect the blow-off tops.
Again, to Max's point earlier,
look at Micro strategy micro strategy
is still not even close to 500 from last thanksgiving you gotta respect a blow off top so
that's my only point like uh uh bitcoin sure likes looks like it's trying to go parabolic
its corrections are getting shallower its consolidations are getting quicker it seems
like it only wants to go up only.
These Bitcoin treasury companies certainly only want to push it up only.
And eventually it does get unsustainable.
And you can even see it on RSI that the buying pressure is lessening.
It's slackening.
So I'm just saying like I'm not going to go into the fourth quarter Q4 surprised, and neither should you.
So Bitcoin gold pair going into price discovery, GBP, the GBP Bitcoin pair going to 100k plus.
I think that would fall in line to some of your price targets for a big local top.
I know for certain the Pi Cycle top is going to be such massive confluence for a big local top.
And I'm a trader, dude.
I think the longest hold that I've done so far this cycle has been Solana,
and that was from like $8 to $9 all the way towards like $60
when things really started to get moving in October of 2023.
That's been like the longest amount of time that I've held some stuff.
But, man, this administration is going to be quite interesting
to see play out. Um, and I wonder if we're kind of done with like long drawn out bear markets.
Cause dude, we saw how quickly the market de-risked after Trump started going into his, um,
his tariff, his tariff arc. And you remember how it was, Matt going into that.
Yeah. Remember a lot of people on those spaces that are old enough to be my grandpa are saying,
you're not understanding. That means that iPhones can be like $3,000 a piece
and a bunch of other stuff. So a bunch of other stuff like that. And it's like,
what if the age of like
bear markets they just get shorter and shorter and shorter well i think he's definitely gone from
i think you're right i think i think trump and beset are are certainly making all the moves to
make sure there's no uh uh major pullbacks or bear markets between now and midterms.
They're trying to, you know,
max liquidity, max easing.
If only they can get,
if only they can get Jerome Powell
to play ball,
but he doesn't want to,
but that's fine.
As long as he doesn't raise rates,
it kind of washes out.
So like, yeah, I agree with you.
Like they're setting the stage
to allow all sorts of
blow-up talks to happen that's fine in their book max for me is there anything else that you guys
want to say before i uh wrap up the show here no it's um it's been great. There is one thing I want to share with everybody, though. So we did release something really cool today at BB. It's pretty unreal. It's got some pretty awesome
results. Pretty great backtesting. It's been trading my own money for quite some time now,
and it's doing really, really well. And something we were talking about is setting up a group
that has all the backtesting and data in there and also will actually ping your phone
when the system gets long, short, or goes flat. And it's 100% free. So you can join in there,
get those alerts. Right now we have, we've got three altcoins right now. We've got Solana on a
one-hour strategy. We've got Doge on a one-hour strategy and Pepe on a one-hour strategy.
Each one of them will take a trade roughly every day and a half on average, not all at the same
time, obviously different tickers, but they're pretty active strategies. They have tremendously
over the past year, and again, the backtesting results are in there, outpace the market. It's a
long, short strategy for all three of them.
Every single week, we are adding new strategies to it.
Okay, so it's constantly getting better
and better and better.
And it's, again, 100% free.
So feel free to check that out, join it.
Again, use it as a resource.
But yeah, it's going to become a pretty big part
of Because Bitcoin.
And I think a lot of the, I guess, recent inspiration for actually making this public
and using it outside of our own trading and our fund and our own analysis, stuff like
that, is that a lot of people have become, I guess, for lack of a better way of putting
for lack of a better way of putting it, slaves to the market going up only. And there's been a whole
it, slaves to the market going up only.
kind of other side to this market where there's been volatility, you know, both up and down.
And a lot of people are just like waiting for a big move. And it's like, well, that's great. You
can do that. I certainly do a lot of that. And I think that's going to be a good strategy over the
coming six months or so. But in the meantime, you can adopt a more active strategy with proven systems, again, that we have all the data to back it up for.
And it's been running my own money.
So, again, feel free.
Check that out.
It is 100% free.
The tweet is up in the nest, guys.
Make sure to follow the account, too.
We're going to be posting a lot more updates when we add new strategies, things like that.
You'll want to get those alerts and those notifications so that's kind of it for me but yeah we did just we finished
that i spent the whole morning getting it finally dialed in um so it's ready to go for public
consumption so everybody can use it totally free um but yeah that's kind of all i wanted to mention
before we logged off but wabi back to you and see Uncle Mike here in the audience Uncle Mike if you want to come up talk some shop for a few
minutes man you're more than welcome to do so always love talking markets with you especially
on volatile days like this man so sending you an invite to speak man if you want to if you want to
come on up brother would love to know your thoughts.
Prometheus, any thoughts from you, man?
The conversation that we've had over the last hour?
I think he's away from the phone.
But either way, Uncle Mike, if you want to come on up. But if not, man, you're welcome to come on to tomorrow's show with myself and Donnie.
But either way, guys, if you guys enjoyed the show, want to keep up with what we do, feel free to follow everyone up here and follow the Because Bitcoin account.
We do go live here multiple times throughout the week.
And also, we do have shows on YouTube.
So just to run down some of the content that we do on YouTube, we go live Mondays, Wednesdays,
and Fridays.
Usual start time on that show, which is called Market Check, that's our TA show, is between
11 a.m. EST to 11.15 a.m. EST.
The show is usually hosted for just over an hour with some of the guys here at BB.
just over an hour with some of the guys here at BB. And then we have our X Spaces show that's
hosted Mondays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays. Usual start time is between 4.30 p.m. EST to 4.45
p.m. EST. And that show is hosted by me, Wabi, and I'm usually joined up by the same set panel
of speakers, usually with Donnie who has
been joining me over the last like nine months or so and we usually have the same set of people
come in and in a rotation basis so sometimes you'll see some of the other guys from BB here
like Tommy, Max, Prometheus, sometimes Tucker also which we're going to be doing that on Thursdays
and we also have some pretty interesting guys like Mike come on up from time to time and
also Matt and sometimes Uncle Joe.
So if you guys enjoy the content, if you guys enjoyed a style of content where we talk all
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You guys are more than welcome to join our inner circle.
I'll go ahead and put some stuff on the nest in case you guys want to check that out.
We go on multiple live streams throughout the week, which are all archived in a separate channel in case you guys miss out.
So it's basically private live streams.
You go through charts, live Q&A, all that good stuff.
But we also have text formatted content with separate channels for everyone that's part of BB.
Myself, Max, Tucker, Tommy, Jackis, all the guys have their own channels where they show charts or just give their thoughts. And some of us also do partake in some of the different calls. Some of us have the
morning call. Some of us have the afternoon call, but it's twice a day, Monday through Friday. And
in case you guys miss any of those calls, they're usually in a separate channel and we also have various channels which are text-based
where of course they are all separated with with different topics so whether it's things
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it's crypto general whether it's off topic we have channels uh for everybody depending on what it is you like
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of the some of the cool stuff that is included within your terminal membership you guys
can go on ahead and check up the nest i'll leave everything up for you guys and in case you guys
uh want to catch up on the space if you guys have been coming in and coming out please do yourselves
a favor and pay attention to the nest as we do post many things up there to give a visual representation
that's more detailed than just what we're speaking on about. Hopefully at some point
spaces will allow for people to live stream and share their screens and all that stuff.
I've been doing that as well guys on Twitch and that's been such a huge game changer in the way
that content is presented and
hopefully this platform can have something similar to that because i know some of you guys love that
kind of engagement um but for now guys we're going to do what we can here on these spaces so
go on ahead check up the nest engage with everyone's post and uh once again follow everyone
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feel free to follow my personal profile as well follow the bb account and we'll see you all
tomorrow bright and early in the morning at 11 a.m or 11 15 a.m est on youtube for market check
and then of course later on that day in the afternoon for market talk with myself,
Donnie,
and a few of the other usual guys.
So spaces are recorded.
God bless you all.
Shout out to my Lord and savior,
Jesus Christ for allowing me another day of health to talk Marcus with you
all without him.
None of this would be possible for me.
And I hope you guys have a good rest of your Thursday or Friday.
And if you guys have any questions, by the way,
in regards to the Inner Circle with our Discord membership or BB Terminal,
you guys can go on ahead and message any one of our affiliates.
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Any questions that you have in regards to any of our premium services, whether it's the terminal or the Discord, you guys can send us a message and we'll get back to you within 24 hours.
So, see you all later.
Bye-bye, guys.
God bless you.
Peace out. Thank you. I'm going to go ahead and do it. so I'm going to go ahead and get started. Thank you.
