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Market Talk- Crypto and Stock MARKETS MAKE NEW LOWS!! More pain ahead?
Recorded: April 7, 2025 Duration: 1:16:19Space Recording
Short Summary
Crypto markets are experiencing significant volatility, with Bitcoin testing $74K and Ethereum recovering to its January 2018 high. Discussions around potential rate cuts and market trends suggest a bullish outlook, while altcoins face substantial declines. Investors are urged to manage risk and prepare for potential growth opportunities.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you
back day forward our boys could do no wrong he was so hot steam Oh, yeah! Bless my soul! Kirk was on a road
Cursing of the week in every Greek opinion post
What a pro! Kirk picked out my show
Oh, ain't I mad a monster and you're talking at the road
He was a no-one, a zero, zero
Now he's a high-cho! He's a hero!
He was a kid with his act, I'm right
Zero the hero, no time life. Zero the hero, I can do a time fight.
Zero the hero, just like that.
I'm bringing my world, my world goes wild.
With my voice in the eye.
Commissioned up to space on every base.
On every voice.
My fearless feet and royalties
Our hurt can't catch to burn
Now you all reach that man
But he could tell you what's a creation
Oh, you say, hey man, I ain't over there
We never defeated
And it all comes ten for ten
I'm not my own, you don't still watch it fix
And this perfect practice that's a perfect effect and
yeah
yeah
yeah Who but the gladiator?
Who's down knees are great theater?
Avery Bones!
Isn't he sweet?
Avery Bones!
Avery Bones!
Avery Bones!
Avery Bones!
Avery Bones!
Avery Bones! Avery Bones! Oh i'm
yo what's up guys hope you had a fantastic weekend man the last 24 hours have been absolutely insane. It looks like crypto really doesn't actually hold up well when equity markets go into turmoil.
I mean, bro, we tested 74K and bounced right off of it.
ETH absolutely did a speed run, a sprint, a Usain Bolt sprint back to its January 2018 high.
Personally, I thought it would be a bit more dragged out, but it seems like what Trump is
trying to do is bring markets down as quickly as possible so that Powell can step in.
And I think from a timing perspective, we're getting close near that point, man.
from a timing perspective, we're getting close near that point, man. We've essentially retraced
back to the 2021 high for the S&P 500 in less than two months. Very rarely do you see the S&P 500
drawdown by over 20% in less than two months. Didn't happen in 2018, did not happen in 2022.
We would have to circle back to 2011 during obama's uh first term during those
flash crashes and then before that 2008 and before that 2000 and 2001 and 2002 so we're talking you
know situations that haven't occurred in the stock market in quite a long time and it got so crazy earlier today
that's multiple multiple multiple i'm talking over a dozen stock markets across the board today
pulled off a circuit breaker and they had to uh halt trading and we were on track to have
the worst three-day performance on the s p 500 in decades not one decade not two decades I'm
talking decades and honestly from a timing perspective this is when people should start
to be optimistic right I played that song zero to hero for a reason it's only now where you start seeing uh meme coin enthusiasts and all coin maxis
and just people that love to go ahead of the risk curve that we're talking about meme coin
super cycle this is it get ready uh deck of billions will be studied and all of that. And now you're seeing threads on risk management.
What's the difference between now on risk management compared to two months ago?
Two months ago, we were trading at all-time highs.
Now you have valuations down 50-plus percent across the board on select stocks.
And you have 90-plus percent drawdowns on altcoins across the board on select stocks and you have 90 plus percent drawdowns on all
coins across the board in two months you had solana going under a hundred dollars like i i'm not sure
how it's possible that the market sentiment is now reverting back to 2022 where you started seeing people that are
effectively only doing business in crypto paying attention to broader macro situations and when we
saw it in 2022 after ftx collapsed we quickly saw how massively prices reverted albeit we did consolidate for a couple of weeks at 15 to 17
000 when that upside move happened it was quick and it was violent and since crypto inception
right since 2009 or if you want to if you want to be more granular and include eth in the in the mixture, you can say over the last 10 years, any time you have the S&P 500
lower than 20, I mean, above 20 plus percent in drawdown from its previous all-time high,
within six months to a year, the gains in crypto are egregious. They're absolutely plentiful.
Here, the gains in crypto are egregious.
They're absolutely plentiful.
This is, of course, when you think of majors, because as we all know, with low cap altcoins
and all that sort of stuff, all the bag holders, they usually want to get out at the slightest
breadth of upside volatility.
I'm talking majors here.
So in my perspective, I think this is a bottoming out process. I think this is when you
guys should start getting excited. I think this is a bottoming out formation. Again, the S&P 500
down 22%. NQ, NASDAQ down 25%. Just for reference, the NASdaq was down about 33 34 percent to the exact low
in 2022 but again what's a couple of present what's a couple of percentage points among friends
and if we just if we're just studying the trend from what we're seeing right now it seems like
trump wants to get the blood over with as quickly as possible. So bottoming process,
bottoming process in Q2, amen. I'll take it. If they want to psyop the entire world
in this trade war situation and how nobody's going to be able to invest,
you just look at 2020, right? Who is going to invest um during a global pandemic how is that
going to be possible right you look at 2022 how are people going to invest if we're on the most
aggressive rate hiking cycle known to man and we and we're having forex crises right we had a crisis
with the english pound people forget that It got so crazy to the point
where the Bank of England wrote a letter to the Fed to not raise rates. Cathie Wood was begging
the Fed to not raise rates. You had Elon Musk on here begging the Fed to not raise rates.
And that was at the absolute low. Elon was saying, oh, man, if the Fed to not raise rates. And that was at the absolute low.
Elon was saying, oh, man, if the Fed raises rates,
and this was in late December of 2022,
if the Fed raises rates in the next FOMC meeting in January 2023,
they're going to cause a severe recession.
And nothing really happened.
There was no recession in 2023, was there?
So we're closer to being so back, in my opinion,
than we are for it being completely over,
even if it's for just a nasty mean reversion bounce.
Those are just kind of my opening statements.
I got Donnie up here, chill up here, Matt up here.
It's going to be a great show, guys. hope you all had a fantastic weekend i was training arms
on saturday and i thought to myself you know by sunday we'll know we'll know we're probably gonna
see some some nice price action across the board and we did as long as there's volatility right
where people don't get bored and i really think that that the market is going to try to sign up a bunch of people into going on vacation or going ahead and touching grass.
And again, when you see such a clear shift in market positioning where people are super, super, super bullish at the top, but then after a nasty drawdown,
they want to get bearish. It's kind of like that. Buy when others are fearful, sell when others are
greedy. And I'm not sure why Finkelstein, Larry Finkelstein from Silver Rock, isn't pressing the
TWAP on the ETF for BTC and ETH. I really don't know why at
the top they're going to buy a ton, but when things are depressed, they never buy. It's like
they want to psyop retail into buying their bags from much lower, isn't it? But nonetheless,
I have Donnie up here, I have Chill, I have Matt. I think we'll have Josh.
I'm not sure.
He told me he'd slide through.
So guys, I'm going to go ahead and get started for today's stream.
I'm excited.
You guys should get excited.
You guys can go ahead and do me one small favor.
I always ask this of you guys during every space, and you guys always do such a great job.
So first, I want to thank you guys for listening
whether you're listening live right now or you're listening to the recording i ask you one favor
and one favor only as i do in every space we guys can go ahead and show some love to the spaces
the best way you guys can do that is by clicking the spaces link and once you do that you'll see
our profile pictures and right above our profile pictures,
you'll see something up on the nest right above on the Jumbotron. There's a little link that says x.com slash I slash spaces. If y'all can go ahead and not only smash up the like button,
but also smash up the repost and retweet button helps out with the algorithm helps bring more
eyes and ears to the brand. And also perhaps brings more speakers onto the panel.
I love discussing markets with people across the board on this app
if they're passionate about the things that we do here,
which is just ranting and bantering about all things crypto prices
and narratives and dubious speculation.
And speaking about dubious speculation,
ETH has finally come home.
So, Donnie, I'm going to pass it on over to you.
So, ETH has finally come home.
Brother, how are you feeling?
Thanks for coming through.
And, you know, who's at home with ETH, man?
Who's right there being snuggled up with ETH now that ETH has finally come home
to its January 2018 high, man?
Is ETH home or is there a trap door in that home to maybe $800?
Hey, bro.
What a crazy weekend.
There was so much noise, especially yesterday.
I was actually trying to stay as attentive to the charts as possible just to see how
people would react to these lower prices.
And literally, as soon as we deviated the 76.6k low, I swear to you, I had about 50 DMs
asking if the cycle is over and so you know
after that went to bed woke up and saw the buyback after deviating that low and kind of came to this
new conclusion which i basically just posted it's the same conclusion just a new um accumulation
setup on btc which kind of it made me really bullish this morning just because we haven't had too much crazy buyback from the lows like this, like a really strong, sharp buyback, which when you do get these buy Let me just check when that was on the chart.
On the 28th of February at 78,400. And that was due to I think Trump announcing,
what did he announce? The basket of altcoins or something like that. So it wasn't really
a true low. It was more of a pump and dump sort of news event, right? So it was starting to look super ugly as, you know,
we kept chopping sideways after the next low that followed that.
And yeah, just even yesterday when we were going to sweep that 79K liquidity,
the way that we got to that 79K was just super aggressive.
So you left the supply block above,
which essentially means that it's super hard for price to just
reverse back up from there because the drop was so sharp.
So what we did want to see, which we have seen now, is we deviated that low and we've
got massive buyback.
I think it came up all the way to 81K.
So that's a huge buyback from about 74, right?
It indicates that there is true accumulation going on here.
But to get above that supply zone, I feel like now it's lining up very cleanly, right?
We've got this new range forming.
You've just deviated that low.
And now you've got a few weeks until FOMC, which we can keep in the back of our mind
as a bullish catalyst to confirm this
accumulation and start pushing a reversal out of this chart.
So everything is honestly lining up.
We have all of the leading indicators like DXY, the yields, everything we've been going
on about M2, all headed in the right direction three months ago.
So we're waiting for that lagging effect.
We're seeing accumulation on BTC.
It didn't nuke super low,
which that's what people were fearful
when we lost that low yesterday when we deviated it.
People were calling for 50K and stuff.
And we still have a ton of support below us.
73,600, the BlackRock reaccumulation zone,
all of that is super high timeframe support,
which I believe you're not going to lose those levels
if the plan is to go higher here,
which I think it is because of all the leading indicators.
And I trust that around 73,600,
give some deviation to that.
It can go to 70K or whatever on a wick.
Should hold, right? You're building the accumulation right now
and the dates are lining up with this bullish capitalist. And you keep
seeing Trump screaming about rate cuts and stuff.
Putting it in people's mind that if we do get the rate cut, it's going to be bullish, right? So it's a
very, very good narrative. And with how
amplified the noise was yesterday just taking
out that low it was insane like honestly i've i don't i don't get 50 plus dms a day like that like
that was that was ridiculous like people i'd never even spoken to dming me if it's over
so they've done a hell of a job um you job making people fearful and selling the low in these markets.
Obviously, it's been super scary with the equity sell-off.
But you said at the start of the space, Wabi, that crypto doesn't hold up well.
And you try and say that Ethan's stuff is doing horrible, which it is.
But at the end of the day, until all of this macro stuff unfolds,
you can only look at BTC as the directional sort of compass
for the broader market, which sucks, right?
BTC is actually doing really well compared to equities, in my opinion.
If you're looking at a price perspective on the chart,
equities had nuked below levels from Q3 of last year, where BTC is still
holding up super well on its chart compared to that. I think BTC around August was sub-50k,
and it's still around 75 at the moment after all of this. So it's holding up incredibly well in my opinion and you're you're shaping up for like a
super clean reversal right now so you know i i can't help but be bullish here in the next like
month or two right and you know i've said it many times the fun starts when the bottom is confirmed
not when you're at all-time highs so you know fun could start within the next three to four weeks by the way that i'm
looking at it it's just such a good setup man like honestly even like even this whole tariff stuff
it's just noise like if you think that the whole world is going to crumble because of a trade deal
right now like i feel like that's just such an amplified narrative that's just going to get
washed away like when i see these leading indicators pointing at
essentially global easing about to take place,
I just can't see how deals don't get made.
That's how I'm viewing it.
So being pretty calm, to be honest,
and just waiting for this to unfold.
I think just to give the listeners a bit of an idea
of what they can expect over the next couple of weeks,
you're probably just going to spend time at these lower levels,
let's say sub-80k, and get bounces here and there,
maybe off of economic data coming out, things like that,
while you form this accumulation until we probably get to like FOMC,
or maybe there's a lurking catalyst in the background
that I don't know about,
but that's the only one that I can see right now,
until that day comes for us
to actually start reversing out of here.
So I think yields are painting a pretty good picture
of the Fed putting in a cut at this meeting and Trump screaming for cuts
over and over and over makes the broader consciousness believe that this cut is bullish.
So it's just a very good way to reverse the chart as well.
So yeah, just waiting for all of that to unfold.
I'm thinking that we spend time down here because of that supply zone above,
like on a technical level,
but also every time we do bounce in the market,
you're having like reversals on yields
on their charts, right?
They reverse a little bit.
DXY reverses a little bit.
Truflation also bounces a little bit, right?
So if the play is to keep all of these,
you know, headed in the right
direction that means price has to stay somewhat suppressed until a full reversal which should be
that if i'm see well man i think now is a good time to start a morning routine man man. Get a nice big punch bowl glass, fill it up with some imported ice
from Iceland or Greenland, and then pour some Tropicana orange juice with some orange slices,
dip our heads in there for about a minute or so so we can get some concentration, man.
there for about a minute or so so we can get some concentration, man.
So, man, I kind of forget how volatile these markets are under Trump.
During his first term, there were two nasty sell-offs, both in less than two years.
years you had the covid nuke and then the uh 2018 temper tantrum uh and then of course they
You added the COVID nuke and then the 2018 temper tantrum.
did a little bit of qe and q1 of 2019 and you know it's it's so odd donnie like
why are all what why did you know all the meme coin super cycle bros start talking about like
risk management and they were doing all these spaces throughout the
weekend talking about risk management when the time to manage risk was a week or so after trump
coin i would say like two weeks after trump coin more specifically when kanye west started to talk
about crypto like i was just going fucking nuts saying that it's over uh when Kanye started
to talk about tokens and you know we saw these pump and dumps like Vine went from 200 mil to like
10 mil uh Jelly Jelly which is from one of the Venmo co-founders that thing went minus 90 percent
um pretty sure there's like another scam that i'm forgetting right here that happened in february but
those are the ones that i remember and you know now it's only two months later and i i just can't
i i can't stop talking about this but like why is there such a need to talk about,
oh, be careful out there, be careful out there, be careful out there,
when you have the S&P down over 20%, right?
In less than two months.
in less than two months in less than two months it's like it's like someone telling you to be
In less than two months.
careful in buying crypto when the s&p was at 3600 3500 like it's it's almost the exact same thing
right and i'm kind of just flabbergasted man like why weren't there many people excited about two-digit soul like
dude two-digit soul brother solana has been the risk on metric for the entirety of the cycle it
hasn't been eth it sure as hell hasn't been bnb and i kind of think bnb is gonna go through its
ethereum moment where it's just gonna bleed against bitcoin for
the rest of eternity i think because binance has not generated any kind of substantial money for
its users in a very long time almost every binance listing has resulted in limit down for uh for any
specific asset that they list with the exception of peanut right that was an
anomaly peanut and fred those were anomalies but everything else it practically marked the top man
especially during ai season
yep yeah i think the main the main thing with um sort of the meme coin top or old coin top at the inauguration highs was that people were getting confused if it's the cycle top or if they should sell or they should hold because things might reverse.
And that was genuinely the trickiest part.
It was, are we going to lose the 89k lows is this liquidity hiccup strong enough
but obviously they paired it with you know all of the negative sentiment now around
trump and tariffs and things like that right to just amplify this dip essentially so that was the tricky part is for me it was 100 not the cycle top
right as near certain as you can be that that's not the cycle top but i did not expect how
ruthlessly um meme coins and alt coins got extracted from that you know local top there
that was insanity right so it was it was a very divided community and
in terms of like you know should you sell should you hold kind of thing so yeah donny do you think
trump coin makes an all-time high or do you think like nothing which one forever trump coin trump
coin let me check it out i don't know it's a weird bit like i said they've kind of lost the
trust with this coin because of how badly it nuked from launch right so i just don't know if that
trust can be regained and the only way we're gonna know is time will tell if there is a reversal on
the chart maybe it catches a major bid with some sort of catalyst on top of the coin or something
who knows but right now the chart looks shit, like terrible.
That's literally an untradable chart.
When you compare it to something like Fartcoin, for example,
dude, I posted this yesterday.
Man, this chart honestly is insane
with how much fear and stuff is going on in the market.
Literally equity, new global trade war, you name it. This chart
is still showing like
clear signs of accumulation
well below the low
that it had at like 220 mil
or whatever. Crazy. And now it's
like breaking out of this
what is this? It's like sort of
like a bull flag pattern right here which I posted
yesterday. What a coin man.
Watch when, literally watch when this rally starts in may this coin's gonna go straight back to the highs
like probably before any other uh coin insane narrative
donnie how does eth look bro i never really that. I don't really think there's, like, a point to even talking about ETH for now.
I'm getting pretty excited to bid ETH here.
I'm not going to lie, bro.
It was already looking, like, pretty clean around 1750 when it had that low.
But because, obviously, BTC, you know, nuked through that.
It didn't nuke through the low.
It deviated the low.
ETH had, you know, limit down to a different support zone so right now your two levels are pretty much
what is this 1430 and hopefully 1350 if I get 1350 and a clean accumulation setup
because right now what I'm seeing is everything is sort of looking like it wants to go on the same timeline as btc right now
right with this accumulation setup so if eth gives the clean entry anywhere around here right 1350
i'm gonna take it i honestly think this chart is gonna reverse super hard this cycle
um and it's just like when it's down this low just just to get back to like that 4k high, for example, is already, you know, a decent gain on itself, right? If you want to pick something that's going to be, you know, levered against Bitcoin, for example, because this next wave to me is, you know, global macro unfolding. So if that's going to happen, you're going to have risk on you're going to have a lot of coins start to do well, right? While we have this window.
risk on you're gonna have a lot of coins start to do well right while we have this window so
yeah i want to take a massive livered bet on eth if i get it i'll post it
you know donnie um i hope you start going up sooner rather than later
um it should be in may bro i honestly like i made a thread on this the other day i saw it crazy viral
yeah dude may and june like somewhere around there right i think it should be within that window
i'm expecting new all-time highs for btc right a break of 109 so that rally in my head leads to
like 138 to 150k at least. It could go higher.
But if it goes higher,
then I'd be scared of like a cycle top risk, right?
I would want ideally somewhere between 130 and 150.
You've also got the confluence of like the power law dudes
wanting to sell at 150.
Perfect place for a correction, right?
Re-accumulate there over, let's say Q4,
because Q4 is 100 bullish therefore you
know it's likely going to be bearish at least to start i think if we get the summer rally right
because you know you can't have a rally in summer because it's always a sell-off but you know
everything is pointing to summer being up um q4 you know big sell-off from, let's say, 150, reaccumulate,
and then Q126, you have your second rally
with this risk on green light.
That's how I think it could play out
if you don't go too high in this summer rally
and a bunch of other things.
But yeah, I hope we get that.
I hope we get that extended sort of two-wave rally
to have this cycle play out.
That would be massive because you get two really big opportunities
to cash out, let's say, 50% to 80% of your bags in this summer rally.
Let's say, I don't know, July, August, September, somewhere around there.
And then the top forms around there, people will stay bullish for Q4 because Q4 is 100% bullish.
And then that's where you get that massive correction and reaccumulation over Q4 and then, you know, pumping Q1.
Brother, so basically you're thinking like another risk on season, risk off season, and one more risk on season.
That's a super cycle.
Nah.
I think it'll, because like if you go to 150, right,
and you reaccumulate, let me just do the math
on the actual chart real quick.
Go to 150.
Yeah, so if you have a 30% correction from there,
you're around like 100K, just above 100K, right?
So, you know anywhere
from 138 to 150 if you have a 30 correction uh it's not going to take as much time as this because
you've got you know the liquidity cycle unfolding it'll be like quicker you know maybe it'll only
last like i don't know four to eight weeks let's say before you you know go for those higher highs again um so risk on it stays on like
nothing from the leading indicators should be flashing for you to sell if this happens
so you're kind of just risk on the whole time it's just a correction if you remember like the
other bull runs and stuff you know when you measure those corrections how long did they last
like 28 days 30 days i would expect something like that
because there's just too much liquidity going around it'll just be like whales taking profits right massive holders taking you know profits so there's this song dude
there's a song and i think it fits well if the s&p makes if the s&p makes a lower low dude
i'm gonna sing a song bro all right live on spaces with hundreds of people listening
um because it's basically are you man enough are you big and bad and tough are you gonna let the
world bring you down and i think it's time to start pounding our chests
man like the time to be bullish is when people think it's so over like it's not time 100 when
finkel steve i promise you bro if the solana etf goes live and souls at all-time highs you need to
short the piss out of it man yeah yeah that's facts that's when it's
actually over right oh yeah i was actually i was actually impressed i was actually hella impressed
with you recently with uh this step you were you flip bullish like which is what you're meant to
do at these lows right that was at 74k at the time baby i'm gonna go ahead and put it up i'm
gonna put it up at the nest bobby needs needs credit for that, guys. He needs big credit.
That was literally at the stone cold lows, bro.
So was that like 93 bucks?
I put it up on the nest and I said this at 350 AM EST.
I said, this is the fucking bottom.
Stop being a bitch.
Time to get ready and buy your own blood.
You wanted a March 2020 style event.
Congrats, you got it.
Just much slower.
Meme corners are now expressing caution
after the entire alt market is down 90%
and ETH retraced all of its gains.
Dude, ETH went back to its January 2018 high.
The Russell got absolutely decimated.
The Eurozone stocks, right right i'm not sure what the
exact ticker is but it's called that was a banger post stocks bro euro stocks went back to like it's
2007 high or something like that like right around there dude the stock markets across the globe
pulled off a worldwide circuit breaker and now is when we want to talk about risk management to the
downside like i think we're a lot closer to a bottom timing wise all right timing wise
than anything dude i remember exactly what happened you know a few weeks after the covet
bottom i was all over youtube and people like BitBoy and other like large content creators, they were saying the world financial economy is not going to be able to support asset prices.
This is a global reset. Don't be surprised if BTC goes back to $900.
And now we're having like MSTR maxis going on 24 hour spaces talking about how Bitcoin can go as low as like 38K.
Like, dude, if it was going to 38K, which was, mind you, my doomsday scenario, it would have happened already, dude.
Like if you would have told anybody at the start of the year, hey, S&P is topped.
We're going to be at 4,800 like the same week of the Q2 open.
Bro, people would have bet money that BTC would be at 50K, right?
And the fact that like we didn't even have a black swan during the opening bell, I think by Wednesday at the latest, bro, Wednesday at the latest, because markets usually bottom out at like the middle of the week at least that's how our that's how i remember um the
covid nuke was in the middle of the week uh the october 2022 low was at the middle of the week
the double bottom uh when jim kramer cried on tv because he recommended meta and meta retraced
seven years worth of gains that happened at the middle of the week soul bottoming at eight dollars
happened in the middle of the week so i think like at $8 happened in the middle of the week.
So I think like, you know, this is peak mindshare.
I said this on Friday, like we're approaching peak mindshare across the globe on this tariff
situation, right?
100%.
And like what people forget is that the Clintons during their presidency, they shut down all of those factories.
They were the cabinet that shifted.
If you want to talk macro here, which I don't really like doing, they're the ones that shifted manufacturing overseas.
And since that time frame, the worker, the average American worker, has been depreciating against inflation.
Wages just have not kept up with inflation.
And I said this to the afternoon Discord call.
If we really want to take a more granular look to see how you know how things have really progressed we haven't even surpassed
the inflation adjusted all-time high for the nasdaq since the 2000 bubble where the nasdaq
peaked at like 5 000 and change just to show like how crazy things have shifted and if trump wants
to hey let's bring the stock market down as quickly as possible and then rebuild from there for
workers to get better jobs, get better pay, then by all means, bro, if it means better long-term
growth rate and we can avoid a 2008-style recession or even worse, a stagflationary period
as we saw from 2000 to 2003, 2004, I'm all for it, bro. I'm all for it. And if we saw from 2000 to 2003 2004 i'm all for it bro i'm all for it and if we saw what gold did
during that time period and maybe cryptos in that time period our asset class is going to be
you know in a position where it could be a beneficiary of that at least better than people
expect right that's kind of my rant. But thanks, Sonny.
That got me really fired up.
You know that?
That got me really fired up
because I understand that
whenever you turn bearish
and you're vocal about risk management
to the downside
and you're a content creator like myself,
there are a lot of individuals
that have followed you for some time
and they're like,
oh, I thought you were bear like oh I thought you were bearish
I thought you were bearish when in reality it's not being bullish or bearish. It's protecting your capital, right?
It's not being bullish or bearish that there aren't any bull markets or bear markets
It's just the market and the market doesn't owe you anything so you have to adjust your risk and
I feel like you know risk Market doesn't owe you anything. So you have to adjust your risk.
And I feel like, you know, risk.
Sorry, I got a I got a call there, but I feel like risk could have been properly managed when Kanye was talking about crypto and so was trading above $200.
So things are still quite elevated.
AI stuff was still trading at egregious levels. So I think risk could have been managed. And these bear markets, whether they're
multi-month or multi-week, the market has often given you signal to avoid them right um and also to get back in the bottom that
yen carry trade you know and when peter schmidt peter schmidt um elmer fudd right they were hosting
spaces uh when btc was nuking 8 000 people and it's always the BTC maxis, the laser-eyed people. When they start talking macro, it is a 100% hit rate that the lows are in.
And I think, right, and I could be wrong because I'm just one guy,
I think from a timing perspective, like, markets are going to bottom in Q2, man.
Like, they're going to bottom this quarter, if not before the fomc meeting because i just dude
i can't see jerome powell getting up there and being super hawkish when number one you have
truflation sub two percent and that data often reflects on the cpi report um within a couple
of months and we're getting to that point and we're seeing commodities like oil
shit the brit shit bricks um we're seeing value stocks across the board now at approaching
drawdowns in a 2022 style fashion and the s&p handle has a four right and if if we just take
a look at how powell reacted during that december and november meeting most of
the damage was done and jerome powell was smiling right so i just think i don't think he's really
gonna jawbone about oh we'll just be relying on future economic data you know we still remain
hawkish with the probability of a few more you know rate cuts later on the year like
nah bro like this is this is fucking this is it
bro this is this is this is it in my opinion and if they want an excuse to pivot and blame someone
and not themselves this is it right here they're gonna do it yeah yeah and if we just continue the
trend donnie like this kind of price action like i personally wouldn't be shocked if the s&p um is trading at like 42 or
4300 by the fomc and i truly think at that point bro like something's got to give or else you
actually you actually i i don't want to like you know knock on wood or anything like that but i
think you start flirting with some dangerous territory i really really really think so man but though that's 200 on the smp
yeah i think if we lose these levels right like if we lose 4800 which is the
we actually tested the 2021 high to a t at 4800800 and change. And then, uh, the next level, um, after that would be like just
below 4,600. And then you start flirting with 4,300, which is the August 2022 high. And then
we also have 4,100 and change, which is, um, the bottom, the, the Q4 bottom bottom of 2023 and if you lose that then you're you're fucking cooked
because the margin calls would start happening like you would actually start getting margin calls
and that would obviously affect crypto because that would affect mstr and i don't know bro like
my doomsday scenario again like worse of the worst of the worst, the bottom is formed because MicroStrategy has to sell some Bitcoin because like they're about to get margins.
That's like my absolute doom, doom, doom scenario.
But again, we take things week by week, day by day, month by month.
That's kind of what's playing in my head right now.
But I don't really want to entertain monkey brain right now, have a ton of scenarios in my head.
So I'm just going to work with what's in front of me.
And what's in front of me is S&P is down over 20%.
Historically, over the last 10 plus years,
anytime the S&P is down by this amount in a quick period amount of time,
within six months, crypto is trading a hell of a lot higher so
yeah i think the speed of the drop uh should give you know should give us some signal that
the bottom is in or near for the smp like you're at those covid highs you've got another like high
time frame support around 4.6 i would be shocked if you broke 4.6 on the S&P.
I think most of the fear is out the way, to be honest.
I think the pendulum will just shift over the next three weeks.
I think Jack has also put up a post.
up a post i'll put it up on the nest um there's now some speculation that uh cuts are gonna be um
I'll put it up on the Nests.
the the the market is predicting at least five cuts from here to the end of the year actually
no that was on the discord he didn't put that publicly but uh yeah now the fed is projected to cut five times um someone in the comment
section said that yields are up so cuts are gonna get pushed back um i think we would have to have
joe on for that for that for that kind of stuff but well you can just look at the two year bro
if the two year is going you know below fed two-year is going below Fed funds rate,
then it's likely that they're going to cut,
especially with all this commotion going on, right?
So right now you're at 3.78.
You just had a bounce,
but you're coming into this resistance zone.
Literally the range low you lost at 3.8%.
It's likely this thing continues going into FOMC lower,
like at least to 3.5.
Donnie, dude, I was thinking about this earlier this weekend.
Can I ask you a question?
Yeah, bro.
Dude, I was looking at the soul chart, and I found it quite funny,
and I'm like, man, I really feel like telling a dad joke.
But I thought to myself, when does a joke
become a dad joke?
You know, Donnie?
When does a joke become a dad joke?
You want to know when?
When?
When it becomes apparent.
Come on, dude.
I worked on that one, brother.
A joke becomes a dad joke when it becomes a parent right i get you bro all right man but uh i want to get some thoughts from matt uh by the way guys
if you if y'all want to come up talk markets ask any questions um it seems like people want to engage now.
Over the last two weeks, these spaces only had like 280, 270, just over 300.
But it seems like we're back to our usual, which is typically pushing 400, pushing 500 on these spaces.
guys, if you guys are interested in just yapping and bantering or just asking questions about the
markets, feel free to hit that request button. I'll open up the spaces for about 15 more minutes.
I want to make these spaces more time efficient instead of dragging them out for like an hour
and a half, two hours, as I usually do. I want to try to get as much discussion in these spaces
as quickly as possible, just so that the listeners that listen to these recordings can be informed
a lot more, honestly. I'm going to try to do a better job at that. So if you guys want to come
up and ask any questions, give any of your thoughts on the market or talk your book,
offer any contrarian thoughts thoughts feel free to open up the
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free to follow Donnie and feel free to follow Matt chill I just invited you
back up if you want to talk markets well without further ado I want to pass it on
over to Matt matt what's going
on brother um me and you were on joe space i think it was on saturday before the sunday doom
and here we are man uh you know the s&p retraced back to that level that we've been discussing
which is the 2021 high um you know our thoughts a couple of weeks ago was, hey, this could be Max Payne, honestly, but
we haven't really seen things truly break, which is the circuit breaker.
I think we achieved the circuit breaker in 2022. And that's when we had that famous tweet
from the White House. And they said the Biden administration is now
monitoring the stock market. And the Bank of England, at the peak of low of the S&P,
sent that letter to Jerome Powell, begging him to slow down the pace of rate cuts.
So that's kind of where I'm at. And I think that happens this quarter, Matt,
as we discussed on Friday.
But how are you feeling, man, about the price action?
How was your weekend?
And thanks for coming on.
Feel free to give your thoughts on the discussion here, man.
Matt, I'm not able to hear you, brother.
Matt, if you're off mute, I'm not able to hear you, brother. Matt, if you're off mute, I'm not able to hear you, brother.
Oh, hey.
Yeah, wow, what a crazy night.
I stayed up late trying to bottom ticket.
I think it went down to 74.6, 74.7 at some time around 2 a.m. But yeah, kind of how we thought it would
play out. Sure enough, Bitcoin's local bottom was overnight and the stock market S&P 500 NASDAQ
was around 10 a.m. the next morning. Doesn't mean it's going to be the 52 week uh or 2025 bottom but
it was certainly the local bottom and we'll see how the rest of the week plays out and the rest
of april plays out um and yeah um i know we were in a couple spaces spaces together and, and, and trying to say it out loud and tell people
like, you know, now's not the time to, you know, pull out a bag of new tricks. If you've never
been, if you've never shorted anything in your life, now's not the time to try and to try it.
If you didn't already hedge yourself with, with puts or had already closed out riskier positions, you're probably just going to end
up costing yourself more money than it's worth. And I was surprised to see how many older accounts
and multi-cycle veterans were absolutely panicking Sunday. The big one that I shared out and a lot of people were talking about is Bob Lucas. He's a multi-cycle, long-term Bitcoin holder. He sold a third of his Bitcoin, a third of his portfolio, liquidated it at $79k.
portfolio liquidated it at 79k and i just moves like that it's too little too late it makes no
sense especially if you're a medium long-term uh holder investor um what all you're doing is
making yourself a a massive tax event and then for what so now you have a third of your cash and you are sitting here and price is the same price
that where you sold.
And you're hoping for substantially lower prices because if it doesn't come, if Bitcoin
only gets to say 75 or 71 or 70, you could easily end up having to pay taxes and then end
up buying fewer bitcoin than it was all worth so it's there's almost no point the the time to sell
was in december or january to get out of riskier positions. But Bitcoin has already drawn down, corrected by 30%, even 35%,
depending on what kind of WICs you want to count from. So getting crazy and like, oh, I'm going to
sell a third of my portfolio or sell half of my portfolio after prices already come down
over 30%, it's just terrible timing it's just like
you're not a trader you're panicking clearly um and you're better off like making more money
raising some cash flow and buy price over the next three months or six months and and save
yourself a hell of a lot of headache so i I don't know. Yeah. But isn't this
typically what we see? No matter how many years you might have under your belt, cycles you might
have seen, emotions can get to anyone and that panic sets in and you've got to start. It's Sunday
night and you're seeing red candles and you just start pushing buttons so um if you were steady and you didn't blow yourself up in the last 24 hours 48
hours congrats like you're uh you're on the right side of this a lot of people big and small old and
new have been uh getting margin called and blowing themselves up um Take one look at bonds. You guys are talking
twos and tens. Look at bonds. Absolutely ripping the yield, ripping higher. And why would that be?
If everyone's dumping stock and dumping equity and dumping Bitcoin and fleeing to safety,
you should see that percent. You should see that yield crashing lower, but it's not. It's ripping higher, which tells you that even bondholders are getting margin called
and are on the wrong side of different trades.
So they're dumping bonds.
They're selling bonds at a loss or break even at best or at a loss at worse because
they've got to raise cash.
They've got to meet their obligations.
So people are on the wrong side of this in lots of different assets.
It's not just Bitcoin.
It's not just crypto.
It's not just S&P 500.
We'll see what the rest of the week holds.
CPIs this week.
We'll see what
deals and news
and tariff talk
comes out of the administration.
But honestly,
this is just like
don't blow yourself up
in the next week or two over April.
We're going to get whiplash headlines constantly that'll send us screaming straight back to 80, 81, 82 on Bitcoin.
And then the next day you'll get rug pulled with a new headline that sends us right
back down, I'm sure to 78, 77K, and maybe even 76. So just try to not overreact. I know that's
really hard, but I think the next actual large catalysts that are going to move markets is we've got in less than two, three weeks,
earnings for Q1 are coming out. All the MAG7, all the big tech, all the S&P 500 earnings is coming
out in less than a month, in about two weeks to three weeks. And then right after that is a jobs
report. And that's where we're going to see, okay, everyone knows the tariffs news.
Companies can actually see how much money they're projected to lose in the near term future.
So how many people are they laying off?
Hiring freezes have already happened.
But now let's see if companies are actually laying people off. We've never seen a negative jobs report
for both private payroll and a US government jobs report.
We haven't seen it,
Biden administration and Trump administration.
So is this the first month
where we do see a neutral jobs report
or even a negative jobs report?
We'll see.
We'll see.
That's less than a month from now.
But between
now and then, it's only going to get louder. It's only going to get a little crazier. So
again, try not to overreact. Stay zoomed out. And we'll see what happens.
Someone's got their hand up.
Cassius.
Hey, Cassius, what's up, man?
Hey, how's it going?
So I have a question.
Basically, the markets have priced in as if the tariffs have been put into place, correct?
That's why when we had the announcement of the 90-day pause, the markets ripped to the upside?
Is that what the markets are generally pricing in?
It's so hard to say.
You've got the whole globe is looking at these news events.
It's too hard to say that, oh, because we popped a couple percent to the upside, it's because a 90-day pause is happening.
Or, oh, never mind, they changed their mind, now it's going back.
It's too hard to say. bonds, that was absolutely because hedge funds and family offices and maybe even sovereign debt funds, people were blowing up and or getting margin called and having to meet obligations
on a massive level.
That was not just because CNBC put out this headline or that.
That represents trillions and trillions of paper moving across the globe
and you can't get moves like that in in in two-year and 10-year bonds without uh uh people
you know without some major movement that's all i'm saying
yeah and uh what's what's really interesting to me is just getting now these notifications,
JP Morgan, Black Rocks, all saying, yep, we've likely already been in a recession.
And I feel like the minute people start saying that is when we're absolutely coming out of one or just bottoming.
absolutely coming out of one or just bottoming but that's what jamie diamond did in 2022
when spx had a had a had a day where it was down like five percent you remember it matt yeah
kush did kush did that famous space sweet old bull market of mine and everybody was yelling
at each other and but that's but that's why why we say this is the mistake of 2022.
Yes, that was a hellish year for Bitcoin stocks and bonds.
Everything was down, even gold.
But what everyone got wrong in 2022 was labor market never cracked.
Labor market never capitulated.
Unemployment stayed crazy low at 3.5% or 3.6%.
And month after month, both private and public jobs data were positive.
We kept adding jobs. We never had one neutral month, never had one negative month.
And so it is still premature to say, hey, we're in a recession
right now when we don't have the jobs data to back it up. Even if you look at initial jobless
claims, where if monthly reports are too slow for you, initial jobless claims get reported weekly, and we still haven't seen any big spike.
It's like steady Eddie, call it 225k a week.
That's very average.
That's normal.
So that's what I'm looking for.
That's what we're looking for.
Does the labor market hold in because companies are not really sure if anything is or isn't
happening, so they just keep their employees?
Or do companies decide, nope, this shit's really happening.
Things are going to get really expensive for us.
We need to spend money here and there to move factories or industry here or there.
So we've got to free up some cash, so we have to lay off some workers.
have to lay off some workers and we'll see it immediately you will see it immediately in jobs
And we'll see it immediately.
You will see it immediately in jobs data.
data so so the correction would finish a lot quicker than something dragged out like a 2022
wouldn't it matt the drawdown would happen a lot quicker rip the band-aid off not this
dragged out stuff that lasts upwards to a year oh boy um i don't i don't know i don't know bobby like
i mean if you're asking if if the labor market doesn't crack yes it'll it'll be shorter than
if it does crack i agree with you there yes if uh if you know if unemployment stays below 4.5%, if we don't get any negative monthly jobs data, yes, whatever
drawdown or whatever bear market, whatever we want to call this, it will be shorter than
if it did.
Absolutely.
I'm going to pass it on over to Mamar and then Luke, and then I'm going to wrap up the
space.
Mamar, what's up man
uh mamar with the land wolf pfp in the suit what's going on bro
hi i'm good how about you loud and clear man up, brother? What do you got for us today?
I wasn't asking for speaking. I guess I pushed the button by mistake, but thank you for what you do.
Oh, appreciate it, man. No problem. Luke B., what's up, man?
What's up? Fun days. Yeah, on the bear market and all that stuff, Matt, wouldn't it, you're talking,
someone was asking if, what are the chances it's long or if it's a short bear market,
wouldn't it be short, shorter, like more of a V-shaped type of situation if things actually
started falling apart, like massively, and they have to come in COVID-style to save the whole system,
wouldn't that be the shortest quote-unquote bear market?
Yes, yes. You're absolutely right.
But the why is important there because 2020, from the Fed to Congress, they came in and injected, what was it, $3 trillion, like immediately.
This is even before COVID checks and PPP loans.
The Fed stepped in and said, like, okay, we're just going gonna literally start buying mortgage bonds and corporate bonds and they the in congress working in congress in um in uh uh in kind with
them and we basically got what was it two or three trillion just straight off the money printer
so you're absolutely right yeah so like what what's the equivalent because like i feel like
a lot of people are just extrapolating out like the worst case and saying like oh this is gonna
happen for sure but no one really no one fucking knows i agree yeah no one knows that's that's why
i'm not making any definitive statements like oh people are coming on the news and saying 80 chance
of recession like they know and like you guys were talking about before, that, what was it, 2022?
And people are saying 100% chance of recession.
Yep.
And they said, it just didn't happen.
It didn't.
I mean, it's time and time again where everyone says the world's ending and it doesn't end.
It doesn't mean that it can't get worse.
I'm just simply saying nothing's started yet.
Nothing has started yet.
I mean, these companies haven't net laid anyone off yet.
And of course, we all know anecdotally, well, my company, you know, we let some people go or that company, they stopped hiring. But I mean, net net in the US, when we add up all the largest corporations, big and small, public and private, they haven't even started any net layoffs yet. Not one. And for some context, just a real quick context.
In 2007, before the great financial crisis, before the massive sell-off in 2008, in 2007,
you started to see months of no job growth, no job growth. Okay, small growth. Oh, there's a
negative month growth. So you saw it a year before and we haven't seen it yet
it can start and maybe may is the first time it starts but we just haven't seen it so so okay so
that time period the market didn't lead it you broke up there the market what the market didn't
lead it back then because generally like kind of like the recession is.
It didn't.
No, you're absolutely right.
It did not.
I was a little too young to really trade the market seriously.
But you had all sort of, you had every sort of talking head, trad fi, explaining away the rise in unemployment, explaining away,
oh, that was a disappointing or kind of a bad jobs report. And you had the S&P 500
keep going up and up all the way into Christmas for 2007. Meanwhile, unemployment had risen from under 4% to almost 5% by Christmas 2007.
So one of those things is lying. One of those things does not belong. You can't have
an over 1% increase in unemployment in several bad months of jobs reports. and also people are paying higher and higher and higher for uh for stocks like
one of them is gonna gonna get corrected hard and and and 2008 was down only
yeah also i mean when it comes to like stimulus and and easing and all that stuff i've i feel like china could be the one easing heavily like into
this pressure because you see everyone around the world like backstopping this and that like
i don't know what what do you think about that because it's like i at least yesterday it seemed
like i mean these countries can't have their their markets falling that quick before coming in and supporting the market.
Well, that's why I stay long Bitcoin.
That's why I would rather just keep buying however long a bear market lasts rather than try to like, oh, let me sell some Bitcoin here with the idea that maybe
I'll be able to buy it back at 50K or lower.
It's such a waste of time.
You're absolutely right because if it looks ugly, if it gets bad, I don't care what government
is in charge.
Spinning up the money printer is always the first go-to they
they choose every single time and and bitcoin will start moving no it like knows it inherently
like it yeah yeah it's i mean it trades 24 7 and it's the first like people have seen this
several times now and they know what happens like oh okay let me like i'm gonna long gold i'm gonna
long bitcoin i'm gonna long everything that's enough tariff risks because here comes the money
printer and yeah yeah people are gonna people are gonna screw themselves by trying to over time this
and it's just so much easier to just stay long yeah well just one more question sorry um
stay long yeah well just one more question sorry um do you if everything is not like end of the
world hell everyone's saying it's armageddon do you think we like bottomed already or we're gonna
keep bleeding because i mean yesterday like you posted one one of those trader guys like saying i'm
sold half my bitcoin i saw another guy that sold half his stack and i'm like is this
the like max capitulation fear or is it warranted i couldn't tell i think it i think it's absolutely
not warranted absolutely not i mean if you have a broad base you know if you own a bunch of different tech stocks and you've got some NVIDIA and Apple and whatever and a big bag of Bitcoin, I get it if like, you know what, I think they're going to make Apple move.
I will never sell my Bitcoin.
That makes no sense.
Okay, Apple has to leave Thailand and onshore to the US.
Well, that's tough for Apple.
And if you want to raise some cash off of companies that have that kind of tariff risk, that makes sense.
But that's just such a different case when it comes to um um you know
individual companies so yeah i mean right now it feels like the only assets i would even want to
hold is like gold and bitcoin because like the system just the entire dynamic this whole thing
just seems so vulnerable.
Hey, Donnie, Matt, do you guys have anything else that you want to talk about? Or is, I think that was a good place to wrap up, honestly.
Unless you guys want to bring up something else about what happened over the last 24 to 48 hours.
All right, we're good.
Hold on, Matt's requesting to speak here.
Matt, are we good to go, man?
Sorry, I broke up there.
But yeah, great space.
It's going to be a long week.
Just chill out, guys, and try not to push too many buttons.
I think there's some crypto meeting on the 9th
uh with the trump administration maybe we got some like small bounce there that ends up being
a local top i don't know bruv but nonetheless yeah i want to thank matt donnie and y'all that
came up to ask questions a shout out thank you all so much i'm gonna go ahead and wrap up guys
to ask questions a shout out thank you all so much i'm gonna go ahead and wrap up guys
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