Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I'm going to go to the next video. Oh Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Everything wants to dream away. I'm this patient.
I feel my heart beating my skin.
I'll be tempted, but you make me feel like I'm alive again.
I'll be tempted, but you make me feel dime? I'm coming out again.
I'm a dream that I'm alive.
I'm coming out again. I feel the heart of me there. oh Oh Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. я yo what's up guys what an incredible day. What a glorious day, man.
Man, you're talking about the S&P up almost 10% within a single day.
This is the largest candle that the S&P has ever put in.
Only second to the March 2009 bottom.
I know he tweeted about that.
He showed it to me during our Discord call.
And, you know, I'll say this.
It's really only when everyone agrees that we're so fucked,
that everything is so over, that we're actually completely back.
Charts don't look bad at tops. Charts don't look bad at tops.
Charts don't look good at bottoms.
And man, let me tell you, as I've been saying over the last couple of spaces,
anytime you have the indices, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ down over 20%
in a short period amount of time, within two quarters, in six months, crypto is trading
egregiously higher, right? From August of 2022 to October of 2022, the S&P and the Nasdaq drew
down almost 20%. And within six months, Bitcoin was back above 30,000, right? From August and
September of 2018 to December of 2022, both the Nasdaq and the S&P also drew down close to 20 percent.
Within six months, Bitcoin was back above 12,000.
So as I say this a lot, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
And you guys were here live on these spaces with hundreds of people.
And Matt was on the show. The other Matt was on the show.
The other people was on the show.
I think Joe was on the show as well.
And me and Johnny were like,
Equities are going to fucking bottom next week.
The S&P hit for 800 change,
which was the January 2022 all-time high.
That was kind of my lower end of where I thought the S&P was
going to hit outside of 5,100 and worst case 4,300. But it got to a point where like the bond market
was absolutely screaming for horror. So Trump's entire trade war was for nothing essentially.
And the move index was yelling at the Fed perhaps
intervening. So we are basically at the shelling point. We were we were at true, true, true
max pain. The largest drawdown within a six week period on the U.S. stock indices in history,
the most amount of value destroyed in history in a quick period of time.
And if you guys want to have a rough estimate as far as like how crazy the damage was, essentially
the stock market was losing hundreds of billions in the market every single trading session.
I'm not talking 100 billion, I'm talking 200, 300 plus billion over the last six weeks and when it gets to a point
where you have meme coin and all coin community maxes you know those those people that like they
they're just obsessed with a particular narrative and they and they refuse to give up it's only to
the point when you have those people that don't pay attention to the broader picture and then they want to turn to macro gurus, that is the perfect narrative.
When you have World Liberty Fly selling their ETH at $1,300, that is the bottom.
Just as they were buying the top and everyone was like Larry Finkelstein, Larry Schminkelstein from Gray Rock, from Black Rock, whatever rock, whatever Mount Rock Herman is buying ETH and a bunch of altcoins, that is when you get scared, right?
When institutions want to lure you in with meat and potatoes, saying that it's wagyu, when in reality it's fuck you, right?
It's nasty beef, it's fugazi beef, it's not meat and potatoes, it's fuck you, right? It's nasty beef. It's fugazi beef.
It's not meat and potatoes.
It's actually tofu and expired ramen, right?
But when you have Larry Finkelstein going on CNBC, when BTC was trading in the mid-70Ks,
talking about how he can see another 20% drawdown on indices and for us to go into a recession,
that is when you fade him. You fade
that man. Just as how he was talking about ETH every single day on CNBC and the price wouldn't
move, you need to fade him. BlackRock is not anybody's friend. They are the worst morally
corrupt company on the face of the earth that has profited off of war,
has profited off of recession, and was a large benefactor in bailing out the banks that screwed
over the American people during the great financial crisis. So anything that comes out
of BlackRock's mouth is a massive fade, for the most part, in my opinion. But he at least
pumped Bitcoin, right? But anything else, I don't know, bro. It's kind of a fade. the most part in my opinion but you know he pumped he pumped he at least pumped bitcoin right but
anything else i don't know bro it's kind of a fade but nonetheless guys you know nbc is experiencing
the best day ever since crypto inception right and i say crypto inception in regards to actually
being able to buy bitcoin on exchanges and not just this weird peer-to-peer thing right because
in march 2009 the only way you were able to buy Bitcoin
was by going on the Bitcoin Talk Forum
and other obscure websites for peer-to-peer purchases.
And I think PayPal as well.
And all coins didn't even exist at that time.
Colored coins didn't even come out.
Alternative payment option coins didn't even come out
until the 2011 cycle i think i could be wrong but as far as i know all coins didn't really
exist until like 2011 2012. uh litecoin didn't come out until like 2013 or something like that 2012. Same thing with XRP. But nonetheless, right, since 20...
Actually, no, this is the best game the S&P has ever had on the daily, like ever, since crypto inception.
And any time the S&P has had these rallies of over 6%, I want to emphasize 6%,
the only times historically that we've seen that over the last 10 years is during these massive inflection points after a huge amount of pain has been done to the markets, right?
January 2023, me and Matt were on these spaces, right?
When I used to host these spaces late at night.
Shout out to those who remember CryptoWorld Radio.
After that CPI report, BTC ramped up on that Friday
from 17K to almost 22,000,
and the S&P had a massive green day.
And the narrative at that time was,
oh, this is just a short squeeze,
this is just a gamma squeeze,
chips are fucked, NVIDIA's fucked,
AI's not gonna be a thing,
like, the chips crisis is going to
come um jerome powell is forcing rates to go higher uh in a short period amount of time
faster than paul volcker and what's happening right now all trump is putting in all these
tariffs all these countries in the in the most egregious and extreme amount of period in such
a short period amount of time when the fact of the reality is this, if those tariffs were to actually go live, it would
It would screw the stock market up.
And we would be in a worse recession than 2000 through 2003.
Yes, you're going to be able to buy, you know, eggs and bacon and juice to pack your school
lunches for your kids and put cheaper gasoline. But the fact of the matter is, we've gone such a massive inflationary cycle where you
either screw everyone's 401ks and you force Gen Z and millennials to have a later retirement
age than boomers, or you simply stop the pace at which inflation is headed and you maintain inflation
while producing the best asset that America has ever produced, which is capital gains.
America might not be first in innovation in many things, but it always crosses the finish
And if America is known for one thing, it's the S&P chart.
You pull out the S&P chart, you pull out the Dow Jones chart.
We have one specific thing, and it's called the American dream, which is freedom, financial
freedom via capital gains.
So we are at this major inflection point, but I truly do not think we're about to go
through something like 2000 to 2003.
And I simply don't think a lot of the commentators on this app, just because they bought Bitcoin
early, have any weight on what the president is going to do.
But if we just take more granularly, more structurally, more like, you know, alpha based,
we just look at what Trump has done in the past.
He took on China on trade and that debacle finished within three months from September
2018 to December 2018 or January 2019.
And now we're three months into this trade war, right?
This tariff situation started, truly started in early February when Basant went on national
TV and he started to give the narrative.
And usually a narrative, just as in crypto, it's quickly exhausted.
Every single time, as you guys have seen over the last, you know, give it like five years,
all of these narratives, whether it's COVID, whether it's the rate hike cycle,
whether it's this Terra4, whether it's the AI narrative,
these narratives usually don't last for more than a few months, both to the upside and the downside, right? So as kind of like to wrap up my opening statement, we're kind of seeing
things unfold before our eyes. We were on these spaces on Friday talking about this is peak
mindshare. This tariff situation is essentially Bitcoin at 100k. Sure, it might have some juice
left, but the time is running out.
There has to be a decision that's made.
And the decision is you either keep taming inflation bit by bit, perhaps a little deflationary,
you know, mini cycle, whatever, give it like a month or something, or you induce a recession
to reduce prices and absolutely destroy the progress that the stock
market has made and you force an entire generation uh to hit the oil rig right so they can afford to
buy breakfast food and you know perhaps utilities come down a bit but you sacrifice the stock market, which is the main problem of the United States.
We are the producer of capital gains.
We are the business capital of the entire world, right?
I understand there's stuff in China, but we've...
You're lagging out a little bit.
Can you hear me now? Test? Test?
But don't just say just saying like we've
I guess you're going farther away from the signal or something, but you're good now.
Let me just go outside, man.
Some nice, beautiful sun here.
My goodness, man, what a time to be alive. But nonetheless, we've seen this China stuff play out and we understand that they are a superpower, right?
Our all of our chips, all of our tech is mainly because we've maintained somewhat of an OK relationship with China. Right. Are these tariffs going to come out, come off? Probably not. But
are they going to be reduced? Probably, right? We have to take reasonable approaches. We have to be
reasonable in an irrational market, right? Matt, if you remember in late 2022, things were not
looking good at all if we just paid attention to macro. But the fact of the matter is, right, that trade of rate hikes and huge hot CPI, most
of that stuff was already priced out.
And now we're here at that same extremity.
And the wall of worry is your risk to reward, excuse me, is to the upside.
Right. And we're seeing that with how equities are responding. is your risk to reward, excuse me, is to the upside, right?
And we're seeing that with how equities are responding.
So unless we're in a different regime,
then this truly is a bottoming process,
as we've been saying since Friday.
And again, World Liberty Fly selling their ETH,
that is a beautiful narrative for a bottom to form.
And I said this in our afternoon Discord call.
I hope they one clip their entire balance sheet.
To be frank, I don't want any of them to have anything to do with our industry.
Focus on deregulation for exchanges and ICOs and all that stuff, make things easier for VCs.
And that's that. But there is a headline that Trump says it's a good time to buy.
I'm not sure if he's talking about the stock market or the crypto markets.
markets i hope it's not the crypto markets to be honest with you um but one thing i find funny is
I hope it's not the crypto markets, to be honest with you.
everyone was saying don't fade trump don't fade trump don't fade trump but the moment he pauses
tariffs and he says that it's a good time to to buy some risk now it's like no you're stupid why
would i do that right but it's like hey a couple hey, a couple of weeks ago, weren't you bullish? Like, weren't you like super bullish? That's kind of where my head is at. But look, guys, I got Donnie, Matt,
Luke is on here also. He was on the show on Monday, I think, or Friday. But guys, before
we officially get started, before we officially start to cook for you guys, I want to thank you
all for coming on today's stream. Whether you're
listening to the recording or you're here live in the audience, I want to thank you all so much
for coming through here. This is Wabi bringing you Market Talk by BecauseBitcoin. And before
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It has a few names, right?
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thoughts on the market over the next hour so we can be respectful of your time and not drag out
the show. So first and foremost, I'm going to pass it on over to Donnie. Donnie, here we are, man.
This is the exclusive update, the pivotal time in the markets, man, at the timeline that you've been sharing, which is going into that next FOMC meeting.
We have a lot of things that have hit, right?
We've had the typical mini bear stock market correction, which is the S&P drawing down over 20 percent.
NASDAQ drawing down over 25 percent.
BTC retesting it's march 2024 high
e3 testing it's january 2018 high a lot of very important critical levels that are really
confident overall and man just want to thank you for coming up and i'm sure it's going to be a
a great show man how are you brother i'm doing good man um yeah happy to be on on the green day
finally that was getting uh pretty intense with you know so much on a fart day too brother far
coin on soul has officially made a higher high on the daily since it bottomed uh in mid-march man
isn't that isn't that beautiful who could have foreseen that i i? Who could have foreseen that? I had to say that, man.
Bro, it's pretty much the only coin that's been trading
essentially in an uptrend against BTC, right?
And if you're waiting for a global liquidity expansion to confirm
and you have a coin trading almost vertical against Bitcoin,
how do you fade that regardless
of what the ticker is called just a blind chart you're looking at that you know you'd be pretty
insane not to even like look at it or consider it as a trade you know so yeah not really surprised
that the firecoin thesis is starting to play out um btc itself this is an insane buyback man um
um btc itself this is an insane buyback man um you know you get above this 84.7k level and that
to me looks like a bottom is pretty much confirmed right you'll probably start chipping away at all
of the you know levels above that 88.7 92.5 95 and incrementally right people are just going to be
continuing to be bearish on any little pullback.
And, you know, you just keep putting in another leg higher,
I remember the 52,500 Bitcoin low,
posting the chart being like, you know,
this is the higher low after the 49K wick
that we had on August 5th
with the yen carry trade unwinding.
And literally you had like,
quote unquote, professional analysts telling you that this rally is going to fail, on August 5th with the yen carry trade unwinding and literally you had like quote-unquote professional
analysts telling you that this rally is going to fail you know typical disbelief all the way to 95k
right from 50 to 500 and you can expect something similar now right people can create a bearish
narrative out of anything being like oh what if the deal doesn't go through what if more bearish
news comes through and all this kind of stuff but you, that's how they that's how they play this
market is they make it so uncertain until you're so back and in price discovery, and you just get
forced into a long capitulation. So I don't know, for me, it was always just looking at the data
that's, you know, being shown with all these leading indicators and BTC itself. You just can't ignore when something is giving you an accumulation structure
above super high time frame support.
You've also got the context of the prior levels below being
where the election rally started, where BlackRock accumulated
hundreds of thousands of BTC, their whales,
buying up a ton of supply.
You just can't ignore those levels.
People are posting EMAs and this kind of stuff.
If you lose this and you lose that,
but the real context is what's going on with crypto,
the whole world, this whole global trade thing,
what the Fed's going to do to potentially intervene here
in the bond market. We'll see,
right? None of that really matters to me right now, other than watching level by level on BTC
here as we go into that next FOMC. So yeah, we clear 84,700 and it starts to get really good,
really quick for me. You're building a very strong case for a
bottom there right and you know they can just keep flurrying good news right china makes the deal with
us dxy starts to continue the downtrend right weaker dollar global liquidity expansion we'll
see what happens at their firm see and from there you're off you just start you know making your way
to new all-time highs so yeah we'll see if it plays out here locally.
But even if you don't claim 84.700,
you've left a pretty strong demand zone below at 77.8K.
If you do roll or whatever, I think that would hold
as a higher low setup. Actually, I've got a chart that I posted
this morning. I'll just quickly share it in the nest so you guys can see what i'm talking about um which you know lines up very
clean as like a three tap accumulation uh if this rally doesn't get above that key level right and
i think from there you're off pretty much but this could be the rally right here truly if you get
above 84 700 it's bears are completely losing their case here.
And you've got what I've been going on about for ages with DXY M2, still having to price in all of
that on the Bitcoin chart. We've literally got three months of price action on the DXY that we
need to price into BTC here. So when that starts, you've got like, you know, a two to three month runway on BTC of upside.
So, you know, as that confirms,
it's just going to be that typical, you know,
renewed optimism, FOMO, euphoria all over again.
And what a way to shake people out
with what was going on, right?
That was truly like insane, you know,
with this whole trade war thing.
It was the scenario that we didn't
want to happen for it to go into
an all-out trade war, but something was just
they're not going to let this ship sink,
here we are. It's nice to see.
fast, man. I tell you that.
If this starts to confirm, it's going to be so quick.
Yeah, and Farcoin is probably going to make a new all-time high.
If BTC can go to 138 to 150, that's kind of my target for this rally, if we get it.
I think Farcoin on Seoul can do 5 to 10 bill on this leg, right?
And then base VARCoin to take 15 to 30% of that.
Because when you've got a euphoric rally like this, right?
A lot of people in stables.
The world's going to end.
You get the incremental buildup to price discovery.
straight through. All of the top winning coins that are trading already vertically against BTC,
they're the ones to go absolutely parabolic and get most of the liquidity before that liquidity
gets rotated as we've seen into every other narrative or new coins and all this kind of
stuff. But if you have an alpha beta play, like Farcoin on Sol, Farcoin on base,
when people see that the alpha on Sol
and they see another token trading
literally one-to-one mirrored price action,
oh, this is around like 200, 300, 400 million.
Let me rotate some of my profit from this token,
which is coming close to running out of steam. And let me try to get another 2, 3x on here, right, on my profit from this token, which is coming close to running out of steam.
And let me try to get another 2, 3x on here,
And that's how you've seen every beta play, right?
Pepe, Brett, Andy Wolf from the Boys Club meta.
Even with GOAT and Fartcoin at the start,
they were trading one-to-one mirrored.
And then obviously Fartcoin ended up surpassing GOAT. But yeah,
every narrative plays out very similarly like that.
becoming the main token on Solana for now.
It's just going to pull all of
the liquidity in there first
before dispersing it out.
against BTC, I think it's going to do super
well if we actually break into price discovery over the next few weeks.
Yeah, I mean, all we have to do is just pair that up with equities.
And I mean, Matt was here on the spaces um on friday and i'll go
ahead and uh put it up on the nest i call my midnight my midnight in 10 a.m that was the low
uh so uh i think i'm gonna go ahead and put in the equities one. Oh, sure, sure. I really just – oh, am I cutting in and out, guys?
So I put this in two days ago.
This was at 6.14 p.m. on the 6th of april and i said equities bottom this week it's going
to be difficult to not be a pussy and bid the blood on your favorite alts but i believe we're
officially in late november late november 2018 bottoming process has finally begun undoubtedly
people will think it's a good time to touch grass right so what what did i mean by you know november 2018
late november 2018 was the escalation of the trade war that was the peak mind share peak everything
yes we ended up making slightly lower lows but for the most part the trade was done at that point
and here we are again today kind of within that same narrative uh except crypto had like a few
isolated events and i think we all
have to be grateful guys that nothing bad is actually happening to exchanges or stable coins
or any of that kind of stuff because boy oh boy we probably would have like a four handle
on bitcoin if that were the case but thankfully this is just something exclusively to trad fi yep and from what we've
seen over the last couple of years is that these bear markets usually happen a lot faster than
people would like to think but that was an excellent that was an excellent opening statement
donnie uh we've been talking about far coin for quite a long time since like 20 cents 15 cents
since last year i'm pretty sure under 10 cents we were talking about farcoin for quite a long time since like 20 cents, 15 cents since last year.
I'm pretty sure under 10 cents we were talking about Farcoin. We were comparing Farcoin to
Doge of last cycle. And it's truly probably like one of the only memes that I can actually see
make egregious all-time highs should equities and crypto uh markup significantly higher here over the next
couple of weeks and couple of months but you know this fomc meeting is actually gonna be
probably the most important one since august or september of 2023 that's when like you can call
it the quote-unquote true bull market started because the echo bubble finished
off in q2 when you had when you had all the ev stocks go crazy if you guys remember that like
neo was going crazy carvana was going crazy uh rivian was going crazy you had like the ev
echo bubble occur um and i think low caps low cap tech stocks did pretty well during that time period also
like the russell did pretty good over the summertime that mark like that marked the top
for the echo bubble but this next fomc is truly going to be fucking awesome and all those people
that you guys saw like on tiktok talking about the trade war and like how trump is employing
the stock market like dude trump literally went on the air and he's
like i know what the hell i'm doing it's fucking hilarious whether you hate the guy or love the guy
like it's it's entertaining to be honest but i would have regretted voting for him to be honest
if like the markets didn't actually bottom here shortly because one thing we don't want to happen is a slow bleed just rip the band-aid off make the pain as quickly and efficiently as possible
and then we move on but donnie go ahead and then i'll pass it over to matt because matt also want
to say something i was just gonna say for the first time ever yesterday i had you know beginner
traders and stuff dming me how can i open open a short? Which exchanges should I use?
I swear I'm going to put up a screenshot of this guy who messaged me.
There was about three more after that.
And that, to me, I was like, I literally messaged him.
I was like, this is the bottom based off of your message.
Like, I had never had a DM like that in my life.
People, you know, the interest for shorts rising.
Just insane. He needs to. Like complete beginners, bro, what? Just insane.
tuning in to these exclusive
I call them emergency spaces
Are you going to shave your head if we get all-time highs
Nah, bro. I didn't say that, bro.
So here's where that rumor started.
I thought ETH looked like complete dog shit in January.
And I'm like, all right, look.
But if not, I'll shave my head.
And, you know, it was just playing around, right?
Like, you know, just some fun and games and whatever.
It ended up, like, not happening.
And then on your thread, I commented, like, yo, if things make all-time highs, I'll, like, I'll put a corporate PFP on, right?
For those that don't know, like, in 2023, everyone here at BB, except myself, all had like corporate pfps like with suits and
and fucking everything it was something else uh so i'm like hey if xyz happens i'll do the same
thing which i never i mean i never did but um but if it does right because i i have been buying some
like shit coins i just don't really feel like talking about tickers publicly until like
a mooding type runner comes out i just don't feel like i have that sort of edge yet but once that
edge returns then sure like i'll do that man i hope we go into uh an environment where like
you know we have like these tickers like Sense. You remember Sense, dude? It goes from like 3 mil to 70 mil within the same day and you have time to position.
Things like AI16Z going from like 3 mil to like 80 mil in a day, right?
Like when we enter that environment, then hell yeah, bro.
You know, I'll put a new PFP on and all that kind of stuff. And I really hope, I really, really, really hope we get that sort of rally going into the summer, 2020, and 2017. First quarter is usually shitty.
I think we've successfully psyoped everybody into believing that everything is omega fucked.
And I think at the very least, we could at the very least do something like we did last year where we can test the upper range, which is like 103K.
At least I'd like to believe that we can do something like that like i mean what's the only thing that can really happen is
like well i don't know trump says some shit to iran or something yeah which i mean that world
war three should happened last year and i don. And I think the market is so forward-looking more now than ever,
then it just prices in pain as quickly as possible,
as it does with bullishness.
No, I was just going to say,
we have all of that data from DXY and M2 still to price in.
And they're still at very key levels.
M2 is pretty much at the highest.
DXY is just about to roll over to go to 100.
So what's coming next that we can look forward to
that could push this in the right direction?
A deal with China confirmed
and the FOMC being dovish.
So if you have those two things play out
those two trends are going to continue.
Therefore, the next rally that we experience on BDC is going to be a continuation of what we're about to price in.
So that to me just tells me you're going into price discovery and you're not going to roll.
It's literally that simple. If it rolls and DXY reverses and M2 reverses, then you make the case
that you could test the all-time high, maybe deviator or just come short and roll over.
But since it's a leading indicator,
you're going to know as this rally is unfolding
if it's going to continue or not.
So I wouldn't even speculate.
I would just look at that and it's going to tell you.
And then the catalyst will unfold as they do you know one thing i like doing on these spaces is dubiously speculating
man you know donnie i was actually getting a ton of alerts coming through from uh i've got this thing called mobi ai uh i think it's from this
shit called asset dash and i i was just getting like hammered with notifications like stock market
erases over two trillion dollars in one trading day stock market loses over one trillion dollars
on on this trading day like dude we were having literal implosions on the equity
markets man like you literally you had to be like buffett you buy when others are greedy
but nonetheless man i'm gonna pass it over to matt matt what's up what are your thoughts bob
lucas sold his stuff at the lows multi-cycle people were selling their shit and writing long threads is
that not is that not just the ultimate bottom signal that's what i was saying all week that's
what i was saying we saw that happen on the ftx lows matt you remember that like all the ogs are
throwing in the towel yeah they're like oh i don't know what to do with this. Arthur Hayes is shorting at 16K.
And Bill Ackman was starting at the bottom again.
Yeah, Bill Ackman crying is bottom single.
The Bill Ackman indicator.
I'm going to put the Bill Ackman indicator on the nuts.
Luke, Luke, your signal's bad. You have to have to drop down and come back.
I can't hear you. I think you're driving or something, but Matt continue, bro.
Yeah, it looks like X is rugging now, man.
Doesn't that suck, Donnie?
Anytime these spaces get pretty hot,
Bro, I never get rugged, man.
Yeah, we're going to need some stars. I got that new zealand internet bro better better now do you guys have yeah do you guys have starlink donnie um in new zealand
i think so i think so i don't use it but i have something else hold on to it
with both hands i don't know how popular elon is there elon's a g bro
yeah the uh so go ahead so i think it's important to talk about um what what went right where were
we right and what what have we learned because i mean this was such a teaching moment. I shared up in the nest that early this morning
before Trump started tweeting,
the strength of this S&P 500 sell-off
You had never seen a sell-off this strong
like people were like, okay, yeah,
and it's going to go so much lower.
So it really was a Rorschach test of of where your mentality was, where your mindset was and how interesting, you know, for years and years, for for four years, people talking about like, you know, if I could go back in time, if I could go back to March 2020.
about like you know if i could go back in time if i could go back to march 2020 oh i would have
bought so much oh i would have levered up oh i would have sold you know sold a kidney maybe even
both just to buy like well you had it this morning you literally you literally had it every every
every news channel was also talking about the same thing like the you have never seen a sell-off like
this since literally march 2020 and people were shorting it and people were selling they were so i don't know it just
goes to it just goes to show um but here in these spaces for weeks not just not just this week but
for weeks you me donnie others i've been talking about we've been talking about, we've been talking about, it's not a bear market.
It's not a bear market until Bitcoin closes below 76K, at least on the weekly chart.
We can have little wicks.
We can go tickle it and touch it.
But until Bitcoin closes below 76K, below the 50-week moving average, it's not a bear market.
And you are a fool to be selling or shorting it at support.
And sure enough, one reversal, Trump blinked, policy change,
and we're right back up to the low 80s in one day.
So I think it's just a lesson learned you know for a lot
of us like okay um geek bearishness when was when when when is retail ever right when uh 60 percent
70 percent 80 percent of retail is talking about trying to sell and buy back lower and they're they're dming you for tips
on how to short and what you know when is when is the majority of retail ever right about anything
they never are and uh it all yeah it was just so interesting to see that just you take your
you take your indicator you take your metric whether you like TA, whether you like anecdotal evidence, whether you like sentiment indicators, or just watching TradFi on CNBC get uber bearish.
But everywhere you looked, it was really screaming, this might be a local bottom.
This might really, truly be so oversold that you're a fool not to buy.
so oversold that you're a fool not to buy
Matt one thing that really screamed out to me was like
meme coin bros with meme coin pfps telling me that like oh no why are you
getting like bearish here like we haven't hit 69k yet aren't you bearish
right like Like we haven't hit 69 K yet. Aren't you bearish? Right. Like.
I'm not going to mention any profile,
but like the same look in 2021,
you had a few profiles call the top.
But they missed the entire cycle.
They missed the 2022 lows and they psyoped themselves into getting any conviction over the last few years.
And that's the danger of becoming a bear.
Yes, you can call the top, but look.
But then all you see is tops.
You never see anything except tops.
at tops yeah people it is look it is better it is better to like miss the top than to miss the
bottom if you miss the bottom and you are publicly bearish at the bottom people will never ever ever
ever leave you alone you will be haunted and hunted down so like i i i like we had to take
that bet matt s p 500 down 22 in less than two months nasdaq down over 25 in less than two months
since crypto inception anytime those two indices mark down to that egregious amount within
six months we're trading a hell of a lot higher not to mention the time that it took which was
insane trillions wiped out week after week after week 2008 style price action with the vix being
held up and it's like you have to stick your neck like, you have to stick your neck out, man.
You have to stick your neck out
and actually be willing to look like a fool
Because at the very least,
even if you missed the bottom
by a couple of percentage points,
you took the risk and your risk to reward
actually favored upside at that point.
It's like fucking buying BTC at 18K
before the FTX collapsed and then it goes to 15.
Sure, you might've missed the bottom by a
few percentage points but we were back above 25 within two months
i really went on a tangent there man is matt speaking donnie i think he i think he cut out
again oh yeah days like today bro really really rile me up dude they really really really rile me up
especially if you're positioned for it bro especially if you're like position for it in
obscure shit coins right i tell you why if this rally goes to where i think it's gonna go
god damn bro there's gonna be some bags i'll tell you that and most people are gonna i i hope so
most people are gonna miss it bro and then they're just gonna be going like coin to coin which one
do i buy which one do i buy and like all this kind of stuff typical bull run start bro you know
april 6th peak of the fud bro i posted that thread i just sat down. I was like, nah, let me just get this all out,
14 post thread, the entire thesis.
If that cooks, May and June all-time high,
I have a trip to Disney coming up sometime next month, and I'm looking forward to having a a a special a special moment
there so hopefully it lines up bro hopefully the stars align man hopefully they do yeah um
i'm waiting for like new on-chain tickers to come out to really like to really really get excited like an arc or an ai16z style move because
if risk is actually going to come out and dude just look at solana like soul is back at 120 plus
like you had two digits soul dude two digits soul and people were like getting excited to short Seoul? Yeah.
Like, you're talking about the indices marking down by an egregious amount in a very, very, very quick amount of time.
And people want to get, like, bare Seoul out of all things.
I'm just not understanding i understand
right like soul has some rebranding to do because pump fun is literally the reason why we didn't get
all season if it wasn't for pump fun everyone's tokens would have gone up egregiously and you
wouldn't have had to move like a skit i know i i disagree i think pump Fun was the... Pump Fun is good.
But I think it was the epitome of alt-season.
Pump Fun was evidence of alt-season.
Matt, I'm more so referring to... I hate saying previous cycles because when we compare things to previous cycles,
respect to the current cycle but like i'm saying like from a liquidity mechanism it vampire attacked
the crypto ecosystem right like if you weren't terminally ill online you didn't catch much right
like like for example like i saw ai16z at two mil because someone that was like a whale
on spx 6900 which was a phenomenal trade if you guys remember that one few remember the lobby
spx 6900 fucking arc but the ai16z ticker i found that because of an spx 6900 whale
I found that because of an SPX 6900 whale.
And nobody really knew what AI-16Z was until it traded like over half a bill, right?
And most of the move was already done.
Whether it's like, I hate saying this, I'm going to barf when I say this.
But in previous cycles, all you really had to do was like buy tokens on centralized exchanges because bitcoin was going
up and it's not like that anymore and i guess matt like a more clear example would be like 2023 in
2023 just throw a dart at the board and you did well like if you bought eth you did well if you
bought soul you did well if you bought caspa you did well if you bought ETH you did well if you bought soul you did well if you bought caspa you did well if you bought injective you did well if you bought apdos you did well
say suey tia the list goes on like it was super easy right just look at anything with some breaths
whenever majors move whether it's like from april of last year moving, if you played alts and you weren't terminally online on X
and you weren't awake in front of the screen at the right time,
if you didn't have access to early information by knowing some people.
I mean, I don't disagree with you there.
The difficulty level only goes up.
And that's why, I mean, I've been very open.
I don't even try because I'm not in those spaces.
I'm not in those circles.
I'm the last to find out, you know, as I keep saying.
So if not, it'd be a losing game for me.
But we've talked about Wabi.
Like, we take one look at total three.
We take one look at others.
Both of them made all-time highs in late 2024.
The difficulty level just went up.
You couldn't just long XYZ dino coin off of the centralized exchanges.
Those were not going to participate you're right
you had to be in the know chasing hot money but we can see that the market cap for total three
and others uh was up only until november 2024 so coins or coins money was moving in coins were
going up it's just you know not the ones that everyone kept,
not the ones that everyone was holding and kept sharing.
Matt, total three never made an all-time high.
It made a complacency shoulder.
Not technically an all-time high?
Total three hit, total three hit the high that we hit in March,
Well, kind of like the Russell then.
I know you were talking about the Russell with Joe.
Technically, it made a double top if we measured to 2021.
I think the Russell comes back in a big way.
It also comes back in a big way the second half of this year.
The second half of this year.
It's the second half of the year going into next year, which is the midterm year, that markets are probably going to be looking insane.
If you want to talk 5D chess, Trump just wants to save the first meat of the move for this four-year presidential cycle.
meat of the move for this, you know, four-year presidential cycle.
He wants to save the meat of the move, in my opinion, for the midterm, for the midterm
year, which is probably the most important year for a president, like, ever, right?
I mean, we saw that with Biden, right, during his midterm year.
People like to give Biden shit.
But during his midterm year he signed
that chips act which literally sent nvidia to trillions of dollars in market cap i i at least
i see it that way right the only thing with that is he kind of has no control over the liquidity
cycle here right if if dxy continues the downtrend, goes to 90, then the market's going to peak sooner than that.
So it just depends where the cycle tops and then how long the bear market follows if there's time after that to then have this recovery rally going into November 3rd in 2026, which is the midterm.
Well, the hope is, and here's where, this is my thoughts, this is my thinking.
The hope is that he's reversed himself.
They've pivoted off of the biggest of the tariffs fast enough that no permanent damage has been done.
So hopefully a bunch of these companies haven't, you know, fired a third of their staff,
haven't been like shutting down plants and factories and production, thinking that they
were going to suddenly owe, you know, XYZ new tariffs in the morning. Hopefully that hasn't all
taken effect. We'll know soon enough. If we don't see any spikes in initial jobless claims this week,
if we don't see any, or next week,
if we don't see a capitulation of next unemployment report,
which is early May, then okay.
We dodged a bullet there.
And that's my thinking i i think
that um earnings are going to surprise earnings will be bullish um i think that these companies
were probably uh erring on the side that like you know what maybe some deals get made maybe
some exemptions will be had let's hold on to our staff. We can have a hiring freeze, but don't fire our trained staff yet.
Matt, some of these companies, they completely dropped guidance.
Like some of these companies aren't even reporting guidance.
Like if you don't even set a bar, it is really easy to surprise everyone to the upside when they didn't even have any
expectations going into it.
I mean, it's going to be fascinating too.
It's just really, I think the markets are kind of, they're just juggling a lot right
And especially, you know, the CEOs and the boards uh they're coming together and
they're like you know what do we how do we guide you know like do we you know they're just like
very much i think a little bit of a standstill in the freeze lock right now yeah yeah i mean
even if the company doesn't guide um if you're an s&p 500 company or a large nasdaq 100 company you've got
dozens and dozens of analysts that are going to still put out their expectations and then it's
all that you know me it's all about meeting and beating expectations um so anyway long story short, I'm bullish. I don't think that any permanent damage has been done.
We'll know in the coming weeks.
But I think that we consolidate the 80s for the rest of April.
And then I think selling in May is the exact wrong move.
And I think selling in May is the exact wrong move.
If this keeps playing out,
I'm in dining stamp of the June rally
just to really surprise people.
All-time highs may in june oh man that's gonna be this market tells you who the real bulls are i tell you that much
mithyus what are you thinking here bruv i so i am very very very much in the camp that a cautious
being cautiously optimistic at this standpoint this juncture is the right way to go about the
trade prometheus prometheus bro what do you mean cautious dude you can't be naka
it's either full air mass or full naka like there's there's no in between bro spx down
20 was down 22 percent in less than two months nasdaq down over 25 percent in less than two
months world liberty fi selling their eth at the 2018 all-time high the at the 2018 all-time high, the January 2018
Bro is turning into macro gurus
Prometheus, man, there is no
just in case anyone didn't know.
Take that information with what you will, but Naka is 100% cash.
I mean, I don't want to put him on blast.
It is what it is, and that's the beautiful thing about CT.
But I mean, like, OK, so like what I was saying, like, why cautiously optimistic, Wabi?
Because I can bid base, Farcoin and Kida and be up 50 percent on the day.
You know what I'm saying?
That's a real thing, dude.
That's a real thing that's a real thing dude that's a real thing it's it's just like
okay i understand the the actions that are being taken right now and the negotiations that are
coming to the table are constructive but at the same time this move that we're seeing today with the SPX of 10% on the day like guys like that is we had and
I was talking about this in the discord in the call right before I jumped on here but you had
three straight days of down only and those three days that move was the 99.9 percentile move in the markets.
And we've only seen a move like that three other times in the history of the stock market.
And now you have followed by that is a 10% daily candle to the upside. I mean, it's nuts,
a 10% daily candle to the upside. I mean, it's nuts, nuts. There's so much volatility in the
market right now that I don't have a problem to finding, you know, deploying capital intelligently
and, and, and bidding the tickers. You know, I, I bought some American express the other day for
the long-term portfolio in the HSA. I bid some base fart coin
the other day. I still have my Keta bag. I closed my SQQQ out the other day. I just entered into
SVIX. I think being intelligent and being capital efficient at this point is the right way to go
about trading this current market. because with the volatility that we're
seeing across the board if you're not doing it the right way you're going to pay you're going
to pay the piper and you're going to suffer the consequences um now we've seen mean reversion
across the board today i mean you have shit like literal dog shit, up 15% on the day. And that to me is just indicative of a broader market suppression that we've seen across crypto for the past, you know, 60 to 70 days, roughly, I'm not at my screens or the charts.
And you're likely seeing right now some mean reversion, and a lot of shorts getting squeezed.
And because that we're seeing, you know, like I said, dog shit of double digits today.
Now, it's important to realize the, you know, what we always talk about is
what's leading the market, um, because of the recency bias and the watershed principle of where
is capital most likely to go into, and it's into the names and into the tickers that are, you know,
of on everybody's head, um, and that have the most mind share.
And the reason why I bring up the watershed principle is because from an efficiency standpoint,
capital flows to the places of least resistance, of least resistance.
You know, if I was full blown bear tard, I would go and I would say, you know, go bid
whatever you want and you're gonna
do just fine i'm not i want to reiterate i am not in that camp um i think that today's bounce
was likely a short squeeze and a mean reversion from what the prices how prices behave the past couple months um but there's still work to be done um
the fed is still you know very much in the camp of not wanting to cut rates uh the 10 years up now
you know uh bonds are selling off because market expectations were a fork for four cuts this year, which I
talked about in the discord. I talked about it. There was a clear discrepancy between the feds
conjecture and market expectations and what they believe to happen. And you're likely you need to
see some conclusion there. There's been conjecture now that the tariffs were, you know,
the part of the deal, you know, as part of the art of the deal, and, and that we likely won't see
further tariffs on, you know, these countries that were once listed. So the only thing left
on the board on that manner is China, as we all duh uh but president trump trump and chi are willing to meet that's good
now we want to see conclusion we want to see conclusion um and you get conclusion
right then i don't have any problem putting the risk all back on the board.
You said president chump.
Wait, I said president what?
Yeah, I mean, it's the artificial color guy.
You know, it's... Did you see his tweet about not being a Panikin?
Yeah, I mean, it's President Trump, dude.
I'm putting it up on the nest, bro.
The United States has a chance to do something that should have been done decades ago.
A new party based on weak and stupid people.
Be strong, be courageous, and patient.
And greatness will be the result.
You mark the bottom, bro.
He marked the bottom, bro. He marked the bottom.
Yeah, I think, I mean, Eric Trump had to be, you know, he had to be sacrificed at the altar.
World Liberty Phi had to sell the bottom.
Yeah, it's, I just remain cautious.
But like I said, I still absolutely have exposure on.
Am I full port right now? Am I the trenches am i you know going nutso
no but i understand that the conditions and could get there very quickly and i remain active i remain
like i remain that okay at any moment you know i, you know, I need to be able to take action at
moment's notice. Yeah, it's, I mean, it's been crazy, guys, this, this week is a week to go
down in the history books. Like I said, a 99.99 percentile move to the downside, where you have
hedge funds like Renaissance, one of the greatest hedge funds
of all time you know uh saying that they have massive losses and then trump and likely what
happened honestly was trump got a call from some people some not so uh nice calls and said you need
to fix this shit and calls from everyone everyone. Yeah, everyone. And I
mean, it was the largest wealth destruction event in the history of mankind. It was wild. And I
truly feel sorry. It was a COVID redux. It was literally March 2020 all over again. I feel sorry
for the people who are like trying to retire right now. Like people have like 401ks and, you know, people who are, you know, withdrawing and
it's like, you know, I get, I get what needed to be done. Um, but still some people got hurt by it.
You know, some people did get hurt by it. I mean, we joke about Bob Lucas selling a third of his
Bitcoin at 79k, but you're absolutely right. There's a lot of grandmas and grandpas and gen x and boomers
that liquidated the retirement portfolio down there at 4 000 smp dude i had people i had
friends and family calling me and and being like like what do i do like they were legit
panicking like they were like do like what do i need to do to make this right like how
do i fix this essentially um you know and also from a sentiment standpoint the other day i went
into like i think like three space i went into three or four spaces and it was like the most like asinine, doomer, like the United States is crumbling, the world's over,
nobody wants United States treasuries, China's taking over the world. Like it was nuts. There
was nothing constructive. And I was like, yep, like this is probably a good time to bounce.
This is probably a good place to bounce at in's probably a good place to bounce that in the in the broader
markets and not only that i was i shared it in the discord again uh we were coming into high time
frame uh demand levels and support with huge huge market maker uh and dealer uh gamma clusters which
essentially is just like massive areas of support and then retail is literally
shorting the bottom like i'm sorry for all those people that like you see retail in crypto and
equities you know you see huge volume in puts and shorts coming at the lows like that is a great
great signal if you guys want signal for like when is a you know a decent level to call for a bottom or
or you know a top it's retail shorting the lows coming in with a lot of volume coming in at you
know high time frame support and demand levels or retail longing high time frame resistance it's it just it every single time um and i still think that today was maybe a
little bit of a not even a little bit it was a reactionary move i mean it was nuts you had
all these late shorts getting blown up um you had market makers having to hedge all this, you know, exposure coming on the board,
compounding to the move to the upside, I could see a little bit of a pullback.
You know, I've talked about it.
When you come down into these levels where I could put the chart up in the nest,
but it's this discount region of the, you know, stocks in the S&P 500,
when you come to this discount region, it usually takes anywhere from six to eight weeks for us to actually come out of it.
So an immediate move is, in my opinion, from a probabilistic standpoint, not the best way to go about it.
There's better ways to go about it from a trader's perspective.
You have to understand too like
the bottoms aren't set oftentimes in a day you know it's you got to give this market time to
recover uh because like i said we had the largest wealth destruction event that we've ever seen
and for an immediate recovery of markets uh is probably going to take a few weeks, probably about 30 days.
And yeah, but I mean, who knows?
The Fed and Powell could step in and we could get crazy QE and could get interest rate cuts because, you know, now they, you know, the tariffs are off the board.
because you know now they you know the tariffs are off the board who knows uh but these are great
levels for um a that i've talked about these are great levels where on s&p stocks that will
age very very well you had huge names like american express at massive discounts like i mean i got this i guess no try to try to
convince someone three months ago that you would have been able to buy nvidia back in the 90s back
in the double digits uh but i certainly bought some um earlier this week at 94 94 94 5 um yeah
you could have you could have taken your pick.
We were talking about, you know, it's time to brush off your watch list.
What have you been sitting patiently staring at,
waiting for the price to come down to your level,
and all you had to do is hit the green button?
Yeah, and I mean, I tell people too, like, even if you aren't an equity bro,
right, even if you aren't like a TradFi guy, if you have, you know, a product or a service that you use almost daily, right?
Buy a little bit of that company.
You know, it just goes to show that they have probably decent product if you're buying it every day.
And like I said, said american express berkshire
hathaway's almost 15 of their portfolio is american express and you had it at 30 discount
from the highs i mean i'm a buyer all day long
well guys i think this was a good time
man we started talking equities
I wanted to add to that just a little bit
that was funny for Prometheus.
It's like that market check stream where I'm like,
ETH is probably going to 1400,
and then it's like, I think it's a good time to wrap up the show.
Donnie, go ahead, man. No no i was just gonna say uh regarding like the
speed of the rally and stuff if it can uh kind of like v recover i'm telling you if you get above
84 700 on btc you could probably be back at 100k by the first couple of weeks of may
so you know just depends if you clear that level
in the next two to three days, I would say.
Other than that, then yeah, you're probably going to have to wait
like another few weeks for a real run to start.
But again, inflation and stuff, if that comes in cold
and like as expected or slightly weak economic data,
then I'm expecting the two-year bond yields
to start dropping again, right?
So right now they've recovered a little bit,
but as that data incrementally comes out this month
and going into that FOMC,
that chart can reverse back down just as quick, right?
And that's going to lead to a rate cut.
So can't rule that out just yet either
well guys this is a great show donnie prometheus matt thanks for coming through shout out to you
guys in the audience guys if you enjoyed today's stream this is your first time tuning in we are
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at 11 a.m est man what a day what a day what a day this is incredible it's the second largest day uh for upside on the s p 500 like
ever um i think that's the danger of becoming like super bearish on crypto
or on equities especially if like you haven't even been here for 10 years, you get yourself in this mindset of
terror has to come, terror has to happen, terror has to happen. And then the old try to fight
boomers show you what's good and they show you that you have to remain long when things
are in discount territory. I think that's why some of the boomers don't really take millennials or Gen Z serious
because we often get so addicted to either side of the narrative
when in reality markets just go up over time.
That's just the way it is.
Farcoin to $20, right? $50. that's just the way it is i don't know man far coin to uh the 20 bucks right 50 bucks
bro a couple of actually pulls i don't know if it could do that in one leg but if the cycle
continues to like i don't know let's say early 26 or something it could actually potentially
you know get 20 30 40 billion market cap.
But if that ever happens, oh my God.
Without further ado, guys,
you guys should go ahead and watch Devil May Cry on Netflix.
It's the best show on Netflix right now now and they have a killer they have a
killer opening theme right i'm gonna play that song right now as the outro
keep on rolling baby you know what time it is I'm gonna start this.
I'm gonna start this. I'm gonna start this. I know y'all be loving this right here, now I am being biscuit is right here People in the house put their hands in the air
Cause if you don't get out, we don't get out here
I'm told three times, don't turn a sex
Chosen for your face, nothing biscuit makes
So when I do you have to shut the f*** up
And back up, we bring this tractor
I'm gonna finish out of my ass on the best that I got from me, what you gonna do now?
I'm a fish out of my ass on the best that I got from me, what you gonna do now?
I'm a fish out of my ass on the best that I got from me, what you gonna do now? Oh