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Market Talk- CRYPTO GREEN?! THE PUMP IS HERE?UP ONLY SEASON IS BACK?!
Recorded: March 4, 2026 Duration: 1:56:21Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. . I'm going to do this. Oh, man.
Goodness and burden. Because it's rest on day.
Solid care and sorrow.
All eternity.
Seed the earth and green perfection.
The massive pain.
Reset.
Hold the code.
The pain.
Conception. Just break your back!
All you bear, all you carry, all you bear, please do your fight, all you fight on me.
Die, you suck, you're in pain, all I'm free with the pain, die, you're on the skies, I Die
Rock Oh, man. I am with that, I stand through the middle of the sun That's it, I've been ruined
What I do, because
In the world that's played only
Don't wish them to the under
And just grind yourself beyond a senior
So you carry on
All you pay
All you carry
All you pay And please feel back Are you back?
Are you back?
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back.
I'm back. Oh, wow. Just get that baby. Get up. Get up. Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up.
Get up. Get up. Get up. Get up. Get up. Music I'm going to go ahead and do it. Thank you. . Oh Oh, yeah. Keep a big round and heavy, so bold, All alone, I feel so humble,
Follow while you're proud.
Hey man.
All you've been now,
All you can't bear.
All you've been now,
When you're proud.
All you've been,
All you've been,
Die in the sun for vain,
All the three of the pain, Die in the old disguise, Oh Thank you. you yo what's going on guys naka matt how are you guys everyone in the audience listening to the
recording what's up welcome back to market talk brought to you by bb today it's another day of uh
great volatility man great volatility that's what I like to see.
I am looking at some on-chain tickers, man.
Specifically some of these AI tickers like Ray.
If that thing breaks out, man, oh my gosh, man.
That's going to be a great trade, honestly.
But I do like to see some of this strength.
I just hope what we were discussing on yesterday's show doesn't happen if we actually want to see some continuation to the upside.
And what I mean by that is yesterday we were discussing the prior range that we were in.
After the prior lows in November, I think it was at 80K, we arranged around between 85 and 93, 94. And then earlier this year in January, we made a deviation above that range at 97, close to 98,000.
And that was basically it.
We made a little marginal high and we just continued this higher time frame downtrend.
And we still are in a higher timeframe
downtrend until we go above the yearly open and for ETH I think do that yearly
open is a at 3,000 3,000 so still a ways to go but at least we're experiencing
some volatility and not just this super tight crab where there's not really much to do.
It's a perp trader's heaven.
That's what I'll say.
If you're an individual that's been playing on perps, then this has been heaven for you.
But as far as on-chain, these ceilings still remain low.
But there's always some sort of runner every single month.
In December, you had White Whale.
January, you had the Penguin. Last month in
February, you had Punch the Monkey. So there's always a flavor of the month. And then I think
we had those AI tokens, Ralph, Gastown, a few others as well back in January. So every month,
there's probably always going to be some sort of opportunity. And if this is actually the top, at least the local top, right,
and we end up making new lows,
I think there's probably still going to be some opportunities.
And, you know, this war with Iran started last weekend.
There's a lot of individuals, a lot of smart individuals
that are comparing this to
the Ukraine war price action, how we dumped into it, pumped out of it. And usually the year,
the year before the pre-having year, there's always some sort of rally into March,
throughout march and then you have a massive pullback sometime in april uh yesterday was that
throughout March, and then you have a massive pullback sometime in April.
full blood moon thing whatever the hell so we'll see how the next two price the next two weeks of
price action unfold there's still opportunity for the long side if you're a bull it's just
not as great as it was before but if you're in perps then then, oh, my gosh, man, this is heaven for you, man. This is heaven.
Stocks also experiencing a green day today.
But I still would like to see the S&P 500 get above its all-time high,
even if it's just a marginal high of 7,200, 7,300.
And I think that would cost some volatility, whether it's a deviation high
or we blast off into space.
Volatility is the name of the game.
As long as there's juice in volatility, there's always going to be some opportunity.
At least it's not a boring market, man.
Even if it is just perps.
As long as there's something to do, then you'll be entertained so um haven't really taken a look at oil have not taken
a look at precious metals or anything like that i really just looked at um crypto today i do like
that solana made um a higher high a local high but again i think the big thing now is wait how
the weekly closes i think if we close the weekly at these
levels there could be some more upside during yesterday's show
I could see the possibility of us touching towards
80,000 but if we get above 80 then by all
means man we could just blast off and test the yearly highs at
97k for all i know um still not
my base case now i'm usually still someone that wants to look at things on chain for the most part
and really just get more hype i think hype just just disgustingly outperforms all majors moving forward, at least at least for the next two years.
I think if nothing bad actually happens to Hyper Liquid, I think hype just kind of the same trade as Solana was at 20 to 30 bucks in Q4 of 2023.
And once they have some shitters that people can bid on there to bid on chain, then that thing is just going to continue to skyrocket.
But I think I've done enough shilling hype, honestly.
Haven't really taken a look at any singular stock name.
I've just taken a look at the indices.
I think that volatility that crypto is known for, at least for the short term, that stocks had is back into crypto.
And we've seen these regimes before, right?
Stocks outperform and then crypto doesn't really do much.
And then crypto does something and stocks doesn't do anything.
Usually when there's a lag between the lead, there's always some sort of catch up.
And then everything syncs up and everything is back to normal.
But these things take time.
Although prices are trading well below the 10-10 wicks for majors, these things still take time.
They take months to resolve. I mean, if we just take a look at the liquidation from October and not October, excuse me, from August of 2023 and 2024, it took the market a couple of months for it to get its juices back.
So it's kind of the same thing with 1010 just wait a couple of months
and maybe we're at that uh we're at that finish line where things get back to normal and anything
that happened on 1010 is is it's behind us now it's just this whole war thing going on which
again if history is any indication you usually have a dump into it, a pump out of it, oil
goes up.
Then the broader market's like, ah, shit, inflation might be going up, time to sell
risk assets and just buy oil, buy some energy.
But it doesn't have to.
And any downside during a Trump regime, I still believe that it's going to happen very
quickly. i still believe that is it's going to happen very quickly um during his first administration
any sort of downside happened extremely fast uh with the equity markets crypto was a different
beast back then it was a way smaller market so now with etfs and all that stuff and all these
proxy companies right that whole btc kind of i call it BTC beta, or I call it paper Bitcoin, honestly.
Micro strategy, a lot of these data centers, there are a lot of people that just think to themselves, why would I just, why would I buy spot BTC when I could just buy some of these companies that have it on their balance sheet?
balance sheet whether it's uh the data centers miners whatever you want to call them whether
it's mstr right the treasury companies and all that crap they'd rather just buy that than spot btc
and it is what it is man some people when they get into crypto they just want to buy alts and now some
people they just want to buy some uh companies that have btc on their balance sheet. So anyways, got a number of the boys here up on the stage.
We're going to go ahead and get started.
But before that, guys, before that,
if you guys want to show some love to the space and all that good stuff,
just click the spaces tab.
And once you guys do that, right above our profile pictures,
you'll see that nice link that says x.com
slash i slash spaces hit the like button hit the retweet button does a number of things helps out
the algorithm brings more people out into the show and all that good stuff and uh yeah spaces And yeah, spaces are recorded as always, guys. So Naka, good evening, my little D-Gen.
How's the bear market treating you, man?
Your mic isn't working, man.
It's not working.
Are you using an L2 to communicate right now?
You might be...
Can you...
There you go.
Can you hear me now?
Yeah, were you on Arbitrum?
Yeah, I was just...
Or on Optimism. Yeah, I was on Optim optimism yeah i was on optimism well you know actually maybe i wasn't
on enough optimism because here we are you know i'm sidelined and we've got a new bull market
um so maybe i should have been a little bit less uh pessimistic um Um, but, uh, yeah, I mean, overall, you know, people are excited, um,
which is nice to see. Um, but if I'm going to be a hundred percent honest, like this is just what
bear markets are like, like this is, this is literally just a classic bear market rally. Um, you know, even, even,
and I mean, this could be, this, this could have been the bottom, right. You have to,
you have to have like some flexibility in your mindset that like, maybe that was it. Maybe that
was the whole bear market. It's all done. And it's going to be up only from now on straight
line to a million dollars. But I mean mean you have to take these things from a
sort of risk reward point of view um you know probably the risk reward to buying here is not
as good as it was if you were buying at 60k right um because you know when when the price is 60k
especially the first time it hit 60k you know there was a lot of fear everyone was
worried you know and now it's already gone up um what 13 14k which is a lot that's a 25% rally
going from you know 60k to 75 is the same in percentage as going from 100k to 125 right it's a big move
to the upside um or comparatively big move so i mean i i'm actually considering taking a short
position i'm a little bit busy at the moment but i i have considered it um i'm
probably going to sell some bitcoin because i had uh some bitcoin left over from my unfortunate
uh adventure buying the basically the top of monero and uh i swapped because it's monero you
have to swap that into btc and so when I sold my Monero at like $320,
I didn't sell it into fiat. I sold it into Bitcoin. So now I can sell that Bitcoin and,
you know, it's like, it's a little, it's a little refund on my, uh, stupidity basically. Um,
but I mean, overall,
I think,
I think this is just a bear market rally.
And like,
you know,
I know people are maybe not going to like that.
People are going to be say,
saying your knackers coping.
he's coping cause he's,
he's a perma bear,
but you know,
I mean,
I just don't think there's a reason to be long term or i should say
sort of medium term bullish like you know will bitcoin be higher in six months time probably not
right it'll probably be lower in six months time and it will they will probably be lower at some
point over the next six months and not a little bit lower, but like a lot lower. So I I'd say it looks like a bear market rally. It has all of the
traits of a bear market rally price going up on, you know, negative funding. So people are shorting
the rip, um, very sudden upwards price movement. Um, you know, retesting long-term moving averages from below rather than from above.
Um, it looks like a bear market rally. So we shall see. I'm the only thing I'm probably going to do
is sell some Bitcoin. I might try and take a short position. Um, cause I, I feel it's getting a little bit frothy people are you know the the usual the
usual sort of indicators of froth are starting to pop um but you know this could run for another
two weeks i think um so i think you want to be careful about leverage shorts um this could easily run to like 80k no problem from here um or it could
or it all this could be the top it's hard to tell but uh yeah i think we are we are seeing the bear
market rally now what are you saying brother Do you think this is a bear market rally?
Well, happy to be back, first of all. It's been a few weeks. I definitely took off and went on my bear market vacay and regroup, recharge. I think that there's a couple of different- Is he actually talking? Can you hear me, Naka?
Yeah, he's speaking, yeah.
Shoot. Yeah, maybe if Naka drops and rejoins. So anyway, long story short,
if not a job person rejoins. So anyway, long story short, I had 60K highlighted going back
into 2025. I thought that that was a very reasonable target for the bear market low.
I didn't think it would literally wick to almost exactly that price, but i refuse to move my goalposts we we tagged 60k over a month ago and bears had all
february to try to send btc lower they had plenty of news headlines to do it plenty of news catalysts
to do it and nothing nothing uh uh could get long-term bitcoin holders to capitulate you know
we all the you know you know what you know what will get holders to capitulate. You know, we, we, all the, you know, you know what,
you know what will get people to capitulate?
Uh, I think, uh, I think barring a recession,
we're not going to lose this range.
A good rally, a good bear market rally,
what will get people to capitulate, right?
You can't, it's kind of like when you're,
when you're trying to smash a door down
You know, you can't just keep pressing into the door
You have to back up a little bit
You have to back up back up back up and then you have to hit it again with some momentum and I think that's what we need
Honestly the thing that will take us lower is this
Okay
Oh Wait, did I? is this okay oh wait did i is he still talking yeah can you hear me there you go yeah yeah go
ahead yeah yeah the the thing that will take us lower is exactly this it's like you need it to go
up so i i've just posted this about an hour ago. And honestly, I think you're going to get a second chance to buy 65 through 69. And maybe even a third chance to. I'm practical about this. I'm not a perma bull. I'm not a doomer bear. I've just seen this too many times. Bear markets take time. And you're right. You're going to shake out a lot of bulls
who get too excited and leverage long the top of the range. You're going to shake out a lot of
bears who decide, all right, I think this is a great time to short and then get blown out of
that too. This is really just your opportunity for the next three to six months to buy the bottom.
This is it.
Just whether it's dynamic DCA, whether you want to try to play capitulation wicks.
But unless we get a new bad catalyst, and I think the only thing that could be bad enough is U.S. slipping into a recession.
But unless we get a new bad catalyst, we're not going to lose this range.
You've already had everything thrown at this from the kitchen sink.
You've got a brand new Middle East conflict, and that isn't going to punch you below 60K.
60K. So what's it going to take? I think it's going to literally take the US losing, net losing
So what's it going to take?
jobs and companies missing earnings and losing money. That's really what it'll take. So I think
that, I think this is just a nice, this is a nice bounce. This is a nice rebound. Congratulations to everyone who had the conviction of buying 60K and 65K and 68K.
How happy are you right now seeing price at 72, 73, even whipped to 74?
But let's have some patience.
It's not over.
I do agree with you, Naka, that this is probably a bear market rally, but I still firmly
believe the bottom is in. And if buying Bitcoin is your bag, or you like MSTR, or you play the
altcoins, or whatever it is, I think the right move is looking how to long with the eye on 2026 plus, you know, setting up what you
want to be in profit when you wake up one day in 2027 and 2028 and 2029. Think back to 2022. You
know, a lot of us were here in 2022. We bounced off 18K and 19K and 20K for months, almost half of a year.
And it literally took a disastrous FTX capitulation news catalyst to bust through 18K. And even then,
you only went from 18K to 15K. And I know it sounded, it looked terrible at the time,
but with the benefit of three years, four years hindsight,
it really wasn't even that bad.
And that's what it took.
So, I mean, again, everything that macro and politics
and global conflict has been thrown at Bitcoin so far.
And you haven't come close to retesting 60K, let alone falling through it.
So, yeah, to wrap it up, I thought that would be our bottom.
I sure didn't predict any of these news catalysts. I sure didn't predict, oh, a brand new war in the Middle East and maybe and or Venezuela or, you know, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
I think that we're going to have second and third chances to buy something in 60s, but
the wrong answer is to start getting bearish here. The wrong answer is trying to like, okay,
and now I'm going to, you know, figure out shorts. That's a real danger. Like what the time to be short was back when ETH was at $4K or $3,500 or $3K or even $2,500.
But now, people want to try to make some money being short Bitcoin after it just had a big bounce.
People want to try to get cute and short ETH after it found a local floor.
That time is over.
It's always dangerous. after it found a local floor. Like that time is over.
It's always dangerous.
But now you're seeing bulls with some confidence. Like, hey, you know, I was wrong for, you know,
December, January, and February.
But now it looks like a lot of people with buying power
are stepping back in.
Like that's, you don't want to fight against that excitement. You really don't. So we'll see how
this plays out. We had a good jobs report today from ADP. We'll get another jobs report this
Friday from BLS. No one thinks it's going to be bad. So take that for what you will. Maybe this administration
isn't going to allow anything to be reported bad. We'll see. But yeah, I think we're going to need
some sort of new bad information, bad catalyst to talk of anything 50 or 40K.
Like how silly, how silly did those 40K calls look now?
And yet one month ago, everyone and everyone was talking about 40K
and maybe that's not bearish enough.
Maybe it's really below 40K.
And now, you know.
I mean, I honestly think 40K is a bit silly.
I think if you're being realistic, 30 K is a bit more realistic.
There it is.
True to form knock it.
Yeah.
Anyway, we'll have time to see.
We'll have time to see.
You think the macro bottom is in, you think with Bitcoin never below 60 K?
I don't want to say never. There's a chance. Like again, I didn't predict,
you know, if you're asking me to lean one way or the other, yes, I absolutely think the bottom is
in. Yes. I think 60k holds. And yes, I've been voting with my money, putting my money where my mouth is. I've been buying. I've been buying Bitcoin.
I bought MSTR, a big chunk of MSTR.
I think my average is like 129.
And boy, am I happy.
Like that's up, what, 20% or something?
Like that looks nice.
And clearly, a lot of other people are doing the exact same thing. If we look at the sector, look at, wow, yeah, look at miners stocks, that's up almost 10% today. Look at, wow, Coinbase, my goodness, Galaxy Digital.
And clearly a lot of other people are doing the exact same thing.
Coinbase, my goodness, Galaxy Digital, people are piling into Bitcoin, piling into ETH, piling
into Solana, piling into all the Bitcoin and crypto companies.
That's not just a couple of retail bulls that had some spirit.
My point is that's not just Michael Saylor.
That's a lot of also TradFi entities with real buying power that want to have exposure to the space in multiple different forms.
Now, again, I'm not saying that like, oh, and here we off to a new bull market and we're going right back to 85K and 95K.
No, no, no.
I truly think, let's be patient.
Bitcoin bear markets take months.
That consolidation takes time.
But the longer the base, the higher in space.
So I'm for it.
Give me a second chance to buy 65K.
I'll be buying.
Give me a second chance to buy 69K.
I'll be buying.
And then in 2027, How happy will you be so
Well, I mean it depends it depends what happens, right? I mean if if we if everyone, you know just goes yeah
This is it. Everyone's all in everyone buys here and then we go to like 30k
You know, what are they gonna do then? Right? I guess you just hold, you know
But a lot of people don't right like i mean i i know i know intelligent people who actually capitulated their entire
stack at the bottom in 2022 and the way that happens is by basically being over allocated
you know in the early stages of bear market it's the it's worst, the worst time to buy Bitcoin is now that like, it is the worst time
because you know, you could have bought it higher up, but if you bought it higher up,
like there was a legitimate chance of upside continuation. Right. But if you're buying it now,
you're basically a hundred percent in a bear market. So it's definitely going lower.
Right. So this is actually the worst time to be to be
you know structurally uh long bitcoin in sposs or leverage or anything right you the the it's far
better to buy if you're gonna buy at this level you could buy at this level in like 2027 or 2028
when we're on the way up and then you'll get the same level right you'll get it at the same
level but you'll have sort of upside momentum to it rob not good you want them waiting two three
years you want them waiting two years just to make sure let's let's say let's say in 2021 you saw
bitcoin at say or maybe like you know very early, you saw Bitcoin at like 40 K right.
You know, early 2022 and you said 40 K is a real deal, right?
I saw it at 69 K at the top.
So I'm buying at 40 K and buying at 35 K this is fantastic deal.
So you bought that, you held that, you know, early 2022 and then by late 2022,
you were down like 50 60 percent right and then by you know mid to late
2023 maybe moving into early 2024 you were starting to break even again but you could have just bought
that level in 2023 instead of buying it in in early 2022 which is basically 24 not quite 24 18
24 months later you'll be able to buy the same level,
but on the upswing rather than the downswing.
You're describing two different things.
If you buy on the downswing, you're going to have to eat shit, right?
If you buy on the downswing, you can buy and hold.
If you bought 30K or something in early 2022,
the chimp liquidation bottom
like you know when chimp when chimp got liquidated on everything at like you know when it broke below
30 which he said was impossible right like you know if you bought that okay good for you but you
had to eat shit for like 18 to 24 months of like holding this thing that you bought for like you
know maybe your average price was like 35 or something,
but it went down to like 15.
Right.
I mean,
that's a huge,
that's like a 6% drawdown or something.
Well,
60%.
by 2023,
if you bought 30 K in 2022,
yeah,
it was rough for a year,
but in,
but,
but by 2023,
you were looking pretty smart.
And then the spot ETFfs got approved and yeah exactly
and then i bought then i went all in and people were saying that you just bought the top
but here's my you know here's my point if you just threw here's my point if you just threw a dart
at price in the bear market of 2022 just threw a dart at it you the bear market of 2022. Just threw a dart at it. You know,
give me the average price of the late spring, summer, and a little bit of the fall too.
I'm not talking about perfectly timing the FTX capitulation. Just give me the average price.
That's anywhere from call it 22K to 25K, maybe even 30K 30k you know so even if you threw a dart and your average bitcoin
was 25k or 30k how happy are you one year later three years that was almost you are incredibly
you look so smart and you are incredibly happy i i think i think if you basically let me
let me let me relate it to today not let me rate let me relate it to today and this is my and this
is my point yeah you're right like look you're right if u.s slips into a recession or some sort
of catastrophic event that no one can predict. Okay, sure. All prices could
go lower, but unless you're betting on black swans and that's not what I do, I'm not, I'm not
betting on black swans occurring. Like this looks like the bottom still. And yeah. And, and you are
a fool to miss these prices. Like if you need to, if you need to divide your money.
Why does it look like the bottom to you?
Okay.
A couple of different things.
And you're right.
How did I come up with 60 K?
Well, one Bitcoin has never had a bear market where price didn't fall by at least 50% from
its all time high.
That's number one.
Like if, if, if you think bitcoin can have a bear market
yeah you need to at least assume like if you think bitcoin it's still possible for it for it to have
a bear market you need you need to at least assume that its price can get cut in half that's number
one and we check check that 125 uh down to 60k yeah we we check that box that. 125 down to 60K. Yeah, we check that box.
Number two, I want to see weekly RSI sub 30. You know, capitulations are nice and Wix are fun to look at.
And everyone likes staying up late on the weekend to see price plunge and all that. But when you start seeing the weekly RSI on Bitcoin sub 30, that's when you know
that people are just getting liquidated left and right, not just selling because they're afraid,
but getting forced liquidated and losing coins they didn't want to sell. That's my other big
indicator like, okay, we're getting close. And then, and then you know third throw in the rest of
trad fi also starting to capitulate and sell off and we certainly saw that look at a lot of the mag
seven a lot of them haven't had a new all-time high since fall 2025 a lot of track track overall
is still very close to its all-time highs.
TradFi hasn't sold off yet.
No, no.
Look at what's in that basket, though.
If you're in energy, sure.
If you're in defense, sure.
If you're in utility, sure.
But if you're in software, if you're in tech, if you're some of the Mag 7,
like, it is brutal out there if you were in the Darlene sectors
You're in the wrong sectors, it's rotating
Whatever, right? It always does that
But look at the value
But knock it
That same phenomenon happened in
2022 as well
That same phenomenon happened in 2018 as well
There's always a sector that's winning
In 2022 The S s p had a
pretty significant drawdown i don't know what was it 30 or something yeah um yes and you know the
queues had had a somewhat larger drawdown uh i can't remember the exact numbers but it was a lot
and they're basically both still at all-time highs right they're down a little bit like a few percent
but they're and not only are they at all-time highs they're also like losing momentum right this is what
makes it so bad for the balls right when you look at trad fi the s p and you know the nasdaq are
horrific they are the worst i have seen those charts since the top of 2015. They're brutal. I agree with you that.
They are waiting to mute.
The S&P 500 is begging for a 10% correction. I absolutely agree with you there.
But one thing we've learned, look, Bitcoin and S&P 500 or Bitcoin and Nasdaq, they don't all bottom at the same time.
They don't.
They don't at all.
Like, look at, here's, look, $4 trillion market cap Microsoft, right?
Look at Microsoft.
Microsoft hasn't put in a new all-time high since literally, you could say, October 28th, 2025.
Microsoft has not put in a new all-time high since Bitcoin did, going back to October last year.
It's already fallen negative 31% from its all-time high.
31% from its all-time high.
Microsoft, again, $4 trillion company, massive employer, massive exposure internationally.
And yet it's not waiting for, it didn't wait for S&P 500 to have a 10% correction or a 5% correction.
It fell off a cliff all on its own.
And same with Bitcoin and the same with a lot of other mag 7 and a lot of other sass
and software basically when you look at the indices they don't look like they've bottomed right they
have definitely not bottled there's no way well here's the thing well here's my last here's like
my last marker when the indices roll over and capitulate that's when everything has bottomed
that's when that's when you know that,
okay, now everything,
like even the safe sectors,
even healthcare, even energy.
Just by that, just by then, right?
Like Bitcoin's going to be,
if you bought Bitcoin
when stock market bottomed in 2022,
you bought basically the bottom
or very close to it, right?
Well, see, 2022 is very interesting. So if we go back then,
and this is what I think the only thing that could take Bitcoin one range
lower. If we remember in 2022,
we were seriously flirting with a recession. We had,
we certainly had an earnings recession companies that never miss earnings were
missing, were, were, were missing and badly one quarter, two quarters,
three quarters in a row. If you pull up MAG7 companies and blue chip companies, these companies,
they don't miss earnings for years. I mean years. But if you pull it back, look at the five-year
chart. Look at the 10-year chart.
You see where they missed their earnings if you're looking at TradingView?
2022.
We had technically a recession, and all we were waiting on was for jobs to capitulate.
It never did, but I think that's what it would take.
You would have to have some sort of, again, some sort of new,
bad catalyst.
I mean, Matt, Matt,
you don't need a catalyst for price to go down.
All that's needed for price to go down is for there to be more sellers than
buys. That's all you need, right? It doesn't,
but you need a new, all you need.
It's all you need is more people.
You're talking about the next. Yeah. But you're is more people selling. You're talking about the next...
Yeah, but you're talking about the next...
You're talking about how do you get more sellers to mark?
Like, how do you get people to...
They've held this long.
People, how do you get sellers?
How do you get sellers?
The way you get sold...
Do they get fired?
Well, yeah, you can get fired and stuff like that.
But most, you know, like most people who are actually.
So in my opinion, most people who are moving these crypto markets don't have jobs, right?
They don't have jobs because they're crypto rich or it's a fund or what's ETF or whatever.
Right.
Okay.
Maybe some of the ETF people, but again, you know, it's, it's at the margin.
But nothing in life is free.
They've got bills to pay they've got employer
They've got employees to pay
Most these people don't have jobs the reason that they sold is because the price went up like that's literally why they sold their Bitcoin
They sold their Bitcoin because the price went up a lot and they were in profit, right?
And that's why they sold and
they sold it to somebody else and that somebody else you know held it for a bit and then saw that
the price did not continue to go up and so that person is now some loss so now if you look at
you know these like you know mvrv and new pool and these kinds of metrics you can see that right now
you know the sort of short- term holders are at a loss.
So some people wrote up, sold their Bitcoin over a hundred K somebody, somebody, you know, basically took, took the L right, held the L on that asset.
And now they want to sell.
Right.
And then when there's a little bear market rally, those, and I'm one of them, right?
Cause I didn't buy Bitcoin, but I bought Monero cause I thought it'd be different.
Wanted to be a hipster punished.
So I sold my Monero at the bottom into Bitcoin. Now I'm riding the Bitcoin up and I'm probably
going to sell that Bitcoin today, right? I'm running and take my Bitcoin that I effectively,
you know, because I bought the Monero when Bitcoin was like about 85-ish, 90K, something
like that, wrote it down, you know, and now I'm going to sell it. So I'm still going to
lose money on that trade, right? It was a silly idea but i'm gonna sell right because i know i
can sell and lose less money by selling at 75k than if i hold and i have to hold the bitcoin uh
down to um you know like 30k right I'd far rather sell my Bitcoin at 75K.
Here, not good.
But let's get into that mindset.
Let's get into that mindset.
You're right.
Some whales, they love to, you know, call it boredom.
They distribute it.
Yeah, maybe they just have nothing better to do.
Maybe they just love the game.
It's not boredom.
It's as they're selling you like a little digital beanie baby in exchange for real goods and services like
a mansion or a yacht or a prostitute right and and you know like the little digital beanie baby
that's no no no that's different if you've got look if you've got a bitcoin billionaire
and he's just shaving off he or she is just shaving off a little of their stack
to cover the mortgage in hawaii and okay yeah the yacht needs maintenance that's not they're not
trading bitcoin they're just that's just they're just covering their lifestyle um let's talk about
you know these these people if they're smart they won't cover their lifestyle like you know
incrementally on a month-by-month basis they'll sell bitcoin when it's overhyped they will sell their bitcoin once per cycle okay okay okay
and and but let's now let's talk about that now why would that you're right and then to that point
in that hypothetical you would agree that they are turning off their selling in 2026 especially
after bitcoin is corrected over 50 percent yeah those those
those people are not selling anymore but the problem is the people the people who those people
sold to they want to sell i want to sell i want out of this trade right i got my name but no offense
naka you me wabi and other speakers in this room, we don't control the price.
We really don't.
But there's a lot of people who are, you know, in aggregate.
Okay, but I'm coming to my final point.
If you act together.
But how do you get, and that's my final point, and I think you're hitting on it too, and I think we're going to agree on this.
I think you're hitting on it too, and I think we're going to agree on this.
How do you get enough new sellers with enough selling pressure that actually matters?
It's a recession.
It's forced layoffs.
It's forced firing.
It really is.
It's not a recession.
You don't need a recession.
You just, all you need is for, all you need.
Just all you need is for all you need.
No, no, no.
I'm talking about getting us to sell.
I'm talking about getting Bitcoin believers who believe in the asset.
But I'm not a believer.
I don't believe in the asset.
I don't believe in the asset.
Yes, yes, Naka.
I've held the Bitcoin for like a month.
I don't want it.
Naka, you're missing my point. I agree with you that like, yes, you're trading. But again,
if it's only just you and like-minded individuals like you, that's not going to break us out of
this range to the bottom or to the upside. I say, okay, fine. So we chop around in this range.
Again, I'm talking about how do you get a massive cohort of Bitcoin true believers that
have had the balls to hold over negative 50%, watched price go from 125 to 60K and still held
onto their stack. How do you get them to sell when they have to, when they're forced to,
when unfortunately, maybe the US or maybe it's regional but uh
slipping into a recession where look they've still got mouths to feed they've got a family
they've got that would certainly it would certainly it would certainly help but i don't
think it's necessary i think it is it really it's literally i think that's literally what it takes the price the price goes down
when there are more sellers than buyers right that's what makes it go down and you don't need
a recession to create more sellers than buyers right like all you need is for a bunch of whales
who are holding on to a lot of um uh a lot of a lot of coin that was at a very large uh theoretical valuation to want to realize
that valuation that's all you need and then the people who bought from them will want to sell it
when it goes down because if you buy an asset and it immediately goes down you start wanting to sell
it right i i know this and let and you know how I know this? Because I literally, I'm doing the experiment.
I literally bought Monero at 600, wrote it down to 300.
And then switched into Bitcoin, because I thought Bitcoin would bounce more, and it did.
So I just want to offload that.
I don't want that.
I want my money back.
So people like me will sell crypto on a bounce.
Sure. Then there's a new set of people who are bag-holding. So people like me will sell crypto on a bounce. Right. And sure.
You know,
then there's a new set of people who are bag holding,
right.
There's a new set of people who are like,
okay,
this was definitely the bottom,
right.
I'm listening to Matt.
This was the bottom.
I'm buying the Bitcoin off NACA motor list at 73 K or 74 K.
Right.
I'm going to hold this to a million.
Right.
And then there's no new buyers or there's
not, not many new buyers and the price starts to go down again. And then those people want to sell.
So the price going down itself is, is actually a catalyst for people selling. And this is how
Yeah. Selling to get selling. But again, if you're only talking about, and that's why like, look,
I'm, I'm just the humble bit corner. I know my size doesn't move the price.
It doesn't.
It really does not.
What moves the price is when, you know, call it hundreds of thousands and millions of people like me have to sell and we don't want to.
That's what moves the price.
Because, Naka, to your point, you already said the smart OG whales that wanted to trade, they sold in 2025, right?
They already sold.
You know, they're waiting on the sideline to buy back in.
But they've got all the buying pressure in the world, right?
Some of them may buy back in, but some of them may not, right?
Some of them may, some of them may not, right?
The idea of whales buying back in, you know, I'm a bit skeptical about it
I think a lot of these people if you've held bitcoin since 2008 selling them 2026
You're probably not buying back in right you're probably selling it because you're retired now and you want to you know
Leave money to your children buy a mansion
They're probably buying hood
They're probably buying hood man
That could be you if you if you've helped Bitcoin since 2009, 2010, 2011,
you are probably never buying back in when you sell, right?
You are selling permanently, exiting the asset class.
Why?
Because you're old, right?
These people are old.
And, you know, the ones, like, that's what I,
if I had a client and I was involved, and they were like, you know.
It's been my experience. The longer you like, you know It's been my experience The longer
It's been my experience
The longer you've been in bitcoin the more your conviction grows the more you believe in it not the less
Those those people are probably not selling right so there are some people you know those people won't sell at any price
They're just like true believers. They're gonna hold forever. They're gonna die and if they don't have you know, um, like, uh proper, um, you know management of their of their will
Then they'll just take this bitcoin to their grave and then effectively it's the same as if they never bought right because if you never
Like never selling and never buying are actually the same thing
Like never selling and never buying are actually the same thing
Because you also lose the money like imagine
Imagine if you bought a thousand bitcoins in a dollar each you spent a thousand dollars on bitcoins
You're a complete believer never shaken out never sold and you just hold forever
You just hold forever and then you
die in like 2033 and you take them to your grave well that's a thousand dollars worse than the
pleb on the street who never bought bitcoin because he thinks it's a scam right it's the
same thing all right yo knock out knock out knock out knock out have you gotten a job yet
sorry have you gotten a job yet it Sorry? Have you gotten a job yet?
Well, like a wagey job.
Like a wagey job, yeah.
Well, I'm sick.
I can't do a wagey job.
I'm sorry to hear that.
You know, I'm usually on the counter trade to Nakamoto, but today I agree with him.
And I find your case interesting, Matt.
I don't, you know, this is my third market.
Sure.
And my feeling is that, you know, I haven't felt a bottom at all at 60,000.
You guys talked that the fractals were very similar to 2022.
very similar to 2022. And I completely agree with that. And I, I would put a set, you know,
And I completely agree with that.
you said there was a retracement at one point where people got bullish and it went to 48 and
dumped and it dumped down to the thirties. And I think that we're in that straight correction
period right now. It's been, it's charted exactly the same. The low was the daily low close. The
high of the range was the weekly close of that week.
And we've traded in this range for the last three and a half weeks.
I could be wrong.
I feel like, you know, a throwover is here or 78K.
And someone was talking about, you know, doing Elliott Wave analysis.
And I think that, you know, we're completing a wave four possibly,
if you're going
to look at it from that perspective, I would, you know, I think there's black swans everywhere,
everywhere, you know, so it's hard to like pick one. I mean, we have never seen an aircraft carrier
been sunk in battle since World War Two. How would that affect the market psyche? You know, I don't know.
It would be something we've never seen in our lifetime.
And we have how many aircraft carriers
in a very tight space, battle space, right?
Well, you bring up an interesting point.
And I think that one of the things
that we got wrong about 2022,
and maybe I don't want to call, I don't want to call TradFi getting smarter, but come on,
it was only four years ago. So we weren't born yesterday and we seen a playbook of this
happen with Russia, Ukraine. One thing that we got wrong in 2022 was we kept thinking that if they don't find peace quick, this is just going to absolutely keep sending assets, equities and assets lower.
But what they didn't understand and realize was the amount of deficit spending and just turn on the money printer and give them whatever they need on both sides. I'm not saying Ukraine only, China, Iran, Turkey, you know, everyone was fueling that war machine on all fronts. And that money has to go somewhere. And it found its way to gold. It found its way certainly to silver. It found its way to Bitcoin. It found itself in other equities. That's one interesting part of today. No one is talking about fiscal
responsibility anymore. No one is talking about, remember Doge? Remember Doge cuts? Remember
we're going to tighten the belt? No one is talking about that anymore. It's all about
how can we be more accommodative? How can we make sure midterms
go well? How can we make sure that US employers and employees are supported? It's how many Fed
rate cuts can we get from Kevin Warsh? What kind of deal did he handshake with President Trump to get the nod to be Fed chairman. Again, I come back to,
we really need some sort of bad new catalyst that's not in the room right now to send us lower.
Because everything we've been talking about is supportive. No one wants this lower. No one.
We've been talking about it as supportive.
No one wants this lower.
No one.
I think bad news is in the room.
Sullivan, tell us the bad news.
Why do I always got to be the bearer of bad news?
Happy May Day, March, Wabi.
How are we doing, brother?
Matt just said some blasphemy while you were in the room.
Bad news.
Bad news has to happen all at once the chud jacks total annihilation oh yeah man chud jacks uh chud jacks must die unfortunately
it's uh it's nothing personal but no i i think people are getting the cause of the reason why Bitcoin's been in a downtrend for so long wrong.
I mean, it's really more related to positioning than anything, right?
Like, as long as Devo, for example, is in an uptrend, Bitcoin's probably going to be in a downtrend.
Like, I actually do think you can keep it as simple as that, right?
We unpinned Devo with the October flash crash that we had on altcoins.
It's been an uptrend ever since.
If you look at the spikes on Devo, it's pretty much directly correlated with when we leg down on Bitcoin.
So, you know, I don't think it needs to be any more complex than that.
You basically have a ton of entities that have been
benefiting from a short volatility complex on Bitcoin the entire cycle. They've been benefiting
because they hold the underlying asset of Bitcoin and they're simultaneously selling covered calls.
So they're shorting vol while price goes up. They're double dipping. And now they're getting wrecked on the way down because, you know, we have the underlying asset value going lower. And at the same time,
we've seen volatility rising, right? These covered calls that they sell while they go up
during a downtrend, they do not offset. They don't offset real tail risk. They don't offset
the underlying loss of capital that we're seeing.
And just because Bitcoin's down 50% does not make it deep value, in my opinion.
I think people are maybe too fixated on the idea of four-year cycles.
But I think that's going to go splat in your face if this is, in fact, not a four-year cycle, but rather a secular decline that we're now seeing
in Bitcoin, which obviously isn't a very popular opinion, but it's the one that I hold. I think
people view $60,000 to $70,000 on Bitcoin as deep value in the same way that people viewed $10,000
and $11,000 on the Dow Jones as deep value in 2008. I think they're very, very similar analogs,
quite frankly. So, you know,
I think the next wave of sellers, right, because that's the question at the end of the day, like,
who is actually going to push Bitcoin below 60K? I mean, look, like, who are the biggest bulls of
Bitcoin right now? Pretty much entities that have entirely blew their load at higher prices.
And I think they need price to go up. And I'm not really
sure who exactly is going to be buying their bags. They don't have to capitulate at 60 or 70K.
But if you see a tail risk event, which is absolutely likely, or maybe not likely,
I shouldn't say that, but it's absolutely possible when we look at, you know, the equity positioning complex and how long we've sat up here on the S&P distributing.
I really don't like the 2022 comparisons, though, because, you know, people are effectively using that as kind of a way to say, oh, well, Bitcoin were also in the bottoming process by the time that Bitcoin was trading within that new accumulation range that ended up setting the floor for this current market cycle.
So, yeah, I –
Hey, Snorlax, quick question about Devo actually for you.
I mean I was checking that chart on a monthly basis and we're creating basically lower highs on a high time frame
and i also noticed like we have a double bottom at 34. i mean are you expecting us
to create a lower low on devil and maybe coinciding eventually um with a true potential bottom i am not personally i i actually think that devil is actually going to go a lot higher from here which
is why i think bitcoin's going a lot lower from here um i do think the correlations between those
two you can really kind of keep it as simple as that um but i think if if we see kind of on like
lower and mid time frames if you see that uptrend start to die uh on devil then i think that's
probably a sign that bitcoin's going to re-enter the regime that
it had been in for pretty much the entire 2022 to 2026 bull run, right? Which is where we had this
stair-stepping price action higher, which is very indicative of an asset that's been
institutionalized, right? It's spot up, it's VOL down. I mean, I know I've heard David Levinson
talk about that before.
I'm not really waiting on something like that to get back into Bitcoin myself.
Like I said, I'm not really looking for something like that to get back into Bitcoin myself.
But it's a salient point in the sense that right now, volatility up means Bitcoin down.
And it's really that simple.
So if you want to see Bitcoin reenter an uptrend, you need to see DeVol get crushed. Right now, volatility up means Bitcoin down. And it's really that simple.
So if you want to see Bitcoin reenter an uptrend, you need to see Devo get crushed.
Otherwise, I mean, I think you're just you're looking at probably the wrong metrics.
So if you I agree that one problem people mistake on Bitcoin cycles is they keep thinking the past drawdown is going to repeat in the future.
So in 2022, everyone kept waiting for, I don't want to say everyone, I don't want to say everyone. Let's just say the bears kept saying you have to wait for negative 80% from all time high
before you can buy Bitcoin, because that's what happened in 2018.
And in 2018, everyone kept saying you need to wait for negative 90% before you buy back into Bitcoin, because that's what happened in 2014.
Like we keep thinking it has to exactly copy the past bear market before it's safe.
And look, what I shared up in the nest is way more helpful. All I'm saying is forget the
exact drawdown because we're not the same market cap we were in 2022. We're not the same market
cap we were in 2018. We're not the same market cap we were in 2014. So it's really irresponsible waiting for a negative 75, 85, 95% drawdown.
It's a 1.3, almost $1.4 trillion market cap now.
And I think, you know, whether it's five years or 10 years or 15 years plus,
like at a certain point, we have to agree that like, it's not,
it's not your father's Bitcoin anymore.
There's a lot more entities and players in here that seem to have a lot more conviction from back in the day.
And the one thing that holds cycle after cycle is when that weekly RSI gets below 30, it's not the exact pico bottom, but it is damn close.
And the only thing that really can force Bitcoin price lower than that is forced sellers. And that's why I come back to how do you make forced sellers? Well, some sort of nasty FTX style capitulation where we discover 80,000 paper Bitcoins that, you know, that that certainly sent Bitcoin price, plunged it below 20K to 15K.
I think this day and age, if the US slipped into a recession
and you had all of a sudden a massive swath of the workforce got pink slips
and now they still got to pay their mortgage, they still got to pay for food,
they still got to pay for clothing on their family's back,
yes, they'll have to sell some Bitcoin to cover those costs.
That could send Bitcoin a range lower.
But again, like, Matt, when you're talking about RSI, you need something new.
Yeah, Matt, when you're talking about RSI, like, what exactly is your take on RSI as a bottom signal?
your take on rsi as a bottom signal i mean what do you i mean i i know you i know you know what rsi
what that means on on long-term time frames naka like so but what what do you what do you think
like do you think when the rsi it just shows you that it it shows you like – it helps you like not stare too much at the price and gives you a glimpse of like look at the peak.
Look at the doomer fear.
Look at the forced selling.
Look at the liquidations.
Look at the doomer fear that people are – they're having to sell their coins.
They're having to give up their bags, and they know better, don't want to but people are getting liquidated so so so which which time frame are
you are you looking at rsi on are you looking on like the weekly weekly weekly rsi yeah and
that's my ping i'm gonna hold on to this pin tweet for the rest of 2026, the rest of this cycle. Did Bitcoin bottom when its weekly RSI was below 30 in the previous spam?
No, it didn't. It didn't, Naka.
Well, I think a better sense of the RSI is...
It marked the bottom range for the next six months.
It marked the bottom range for the next six months.
And only the FTX capitulation in November sent Bitcoin below 18K to 15.5.
But the weekly RSI didn't go low then.
That's correct.
Matt, you talked about when you started buying, you talked about 30,000 last year, right?
Or 2022.
The MVRV, that was exactly when it went
into accumulation mode was when I started scooping the bottom up. I agree. I'm not a bottom picker,
like some people try to be. The MVRV was at six. And that's when I started accumulating Bitcoin
at 28,000 American. And for nine months, I just bought once a week, every week,
no matter what the price, all the way down to $15,000.
And your average was $20,000 was my average buy-in price
for that bear market cycle.
And I just find it's a very useful indicator
because it does indicate sentiment.
I find Bitcoin trades very differently right now
where it seems like the dumping is is ferocious but you still
have a lot of sentiment in this market i know my market and so sorry when you said well when you
said the mvrv what what mvrv value were you buying at or what do you think is significant i i started
i i'm gonna start buying when it goes to uh 6.8 and all the way down and back up again when it's back out of the green.
So I started last time.
It was, I don't know, 6.2 all the way down to 1.
The MVRV indicates how many people are selling at a loss, right?
And it's a direct reflection of how many UTXOs are underwater at that point.
And it's like absolute capitulation in my view.
It could be different.
Well, sorry, we must be on a bit of a different scale because last cycle, the MVRV at the top was only 3.7.
I watch it on the daily scale.
MVRV Z score and I watch it on the daily scale.
Oh, you used the Z score. Okay, remember, MVRV and MVRV Z score and I watch it on the daily. You use the Z score.
Remember, MVRV and MVRV
Z score are not the same thing.
They are completely
different.
What the Z score does is it
forms a distribution from all
of the previous historical MVRV values
and then...
Either way,
I don't believe in this secular bear market
i believe in the four-year cycle and it's from the fundamentals of bitcoin this is one thing
people don't see coming and you should pay attention to the fundamentals and a lot about
what geordie visser is saying saying because ai agents you know people don't understand bitcoin i
thought me you know i was an idealist i thought people would get Bitcoin after a while, but they don't.
And they don't care.
But you know what's going to understand programmable digital money is AI agents.
And imagine you can spin up in a future not too long from here.
That's only constrained by how much electricity you can generate and the compute that you have.
That how many AI agents you can spin up
in a second millions and billions and all they need to go is buy 500 sats each trillions of ais
and they're the ones doing deterministic transactions and they won't choose another
crypto they're going to try every other crypto but they're all going to fail because it needs
an absolutely decentralized network that you can't overwrite the history on,
that you can't just reverse transactions.
You think AI agents are going to transact on Bitcoin?
I believe they're going to act on your behalf.
How many of these AI agents How many of these AI agents
Or how many AI agent transactions
Per day do you think are going to happen
It could be done on the lightning network
No problem
The lightning network can open and close channels
300,000 times a day I believe
So you think
You think AI agents
Are going to use the lightning network
Because
Presumably People are going to use the lightning network because presumably, you know, they
can't use Bitcoin because it doesn't have enough TPS. They're going to use lightning.
They're going to use both. Respectfully, Bitcoin doesn't have, Bitcoin has like, you know,
a couple of transactions per second, right?
Like, and it has 15.
They're going to, it's,
no substantial number of agents
are going to be able to fix it.
Base layer Bitcoin is going to be used as collateral.
Base layer Bitcoin is going to be collateralized.
All tokens are going to be collateralized with Bitcoin
because people aren't going to trust other tokens. we already understand how all these alts are complete
garbage right because you can overwrite the ledger what do you mean what do you mean you
can overwrite the ledger which which ledger can you overwrite you can reverse trans you you can
you can reverse the transactions on any single proof of work altcoin and every proof of stake altcoin.
How do I reverse my transaction on Ethereum? Can you tell me how that works?
They've already done it. It was done in the DAO.
The DAO hack is like a one-off hard fork of the chain.
And they completely changed the protocol.
Yeah, but you could do that.
Was that 2022?
You could do that with Bitcoin, too.
There's no difference between doing a hard fork with Bitcoin and doing a hard fork with Bitcoin.
It's exactly the same thing.
As soon as we're relitigating the DAO hack at 2017, let's bring it
to this.
The use case
for the next bull market will be
agentic AI is all I'm saying.
I hear you.
I don't think that's bullish for Bitcoin
though, because Bitcoin sucks.
For doing transactions, it's the worst
blockchain.
It's okay, Nakamoto.
There are no blockchains
There are no blockchains
That are worse than Bitcoin
You've never read a book on Bitcoin Naka
I've listened to you for years
And the only thing that makes me sad about your analysis
Is it's never improved
You're out here telling me
That altcoins can literally just reverse
Transactions and then you won't give me an example
Yes, they absolutely can Can you explain to me telling me that altcoins can literally just reverse transactions and then you won't give me an example.
Yeah. Yeah, absolutely.
Explain to me how I can reverse a transactional Ethereum.
How do you do that?
Guys, let's not relitigate.
Like, like, we'll have all bear market to tell.
I mean, you have to, we have to have, you have to have some kind of standards
on these spaces that people are just going to come up and talk shit and be
like, yeah, you can reverse a transaction on ETH eth and then when you ask them how they're just you know
they go silent microphone problem i don't know i mean like we've got to have some standards right
i just want to know do you think the bottom's in okay fine you you prefer mbrb you don't think
the bottom's in no i i don't think the bottom is in i'm not going to bottom pick as far
as the price if if you were to use elliott wave it could be 48 if i were looking at the mvrv
it might be 30 i i mean that would make me feel sick still if it went down to 30 and the mvrv uh
the way i'm looking at it says that's a possibility and we know but you're you're looking at the
you're looking at the zed score you're not looking at the mv looking at that you're looking at the zed score
you're not looking at the mvrv right you're looking at the zed score of the nvrv i use the
zed score okay i use the zed score of the mvrv and i scooped the entire okay but just 20 20 i'm not
i'm not dissing your trades i'm just saying mvrv and mvrv zed score are completely different
that it's not like the zed score is like you know mvrv but are completely different. It's not like the Z score is like, you know, MBRV,
but like, you know, it's got like the letter Z on it.
It's a sentiment indicator.
It's not a sentiment.
MBRV is not a sentiment indicator.
It is not a sentiment indicator.
It absolutely is.
Okay, can you explain what the letters MBRV stand for? can you explain what the letters
MVRV stand for can you explain what those letters stand for
Market value realize When you purchase your Bitcoin and the price you bought your UTXO's that and that's the price that they got
They last got move and how and so how do you compute MVRV from those from those things then?
Educate me, please. So you take the you take the realized value right
you take the realized value the value that people actually realized the last transaction that each
sat traveled at and you divide the market value which is the actual price of bitcoin at the
current time by that and so when when the market value is greater than the realized value the value of the
people of the sats that you'll have in their pockets is greater on average than what they
bought them for so that's a bull market i know right but when when mvrv goes less than one and
i'm not talking about zed score right when mvrv itself goes less than one, that means that on average, you know, the average sat is at a loss,
right? Um, because the, um, the market value is out below the realized value. And I think that's
a reasonable bottom indicator, right? Like it is reasonable to say when MVRV goes below one,
you should probably buy. But if you look at it right now, you know, MVRV is like 1.2 or something.
And in the last market, you know, that happened.
Well, that wasn't the bottom.
That was like the, that was basically the sort of May, 2022, the little, um, sort
of stop off we had before the, you know, the, the big leg down into June.
And, and the, the chart is also kind of telling you that that's what it looks
like if you just do fractals, which is a bit of a, you know, just just comparing comparing the price action.
But MVRV is basically telling you pretty strongly the bottom is not it because MVRV has gone below one in every single bear market.
Right.
And by roughly the same amount.
So that that to me is a very strong signal.
to me is a very strong signal that the bottom is not in the zed score is dangerous mvrv zed score
The bottom is not in the Z score is dangerous.
is dangerous because when you compute the zed score you use all of the previous data as as
like a distribution and then you say well where would we form that distribution and you know that
should say well you know when you're in the left tail you should buy and when you're in the right
tail you should sell but the problem with that is you, this MVRV, when you look at the chart
over sub, you know, over sequential markets, it actually goes up less every time.
So if you just use MVRV Z score to try and time your buys and sells, it's going to fuck you over.
But I would personally avoid using the Z score.
Just use MVRV.
You should probably buy when it's below one and it's not below one.
That's my take.
Interesting. Interesting.
The NACA has spoken.
You know, I mean, hey, that's interesting.
I'm I don't I don't hate it.
I mean, yeah.
I agree with your earlier point that whether we're talking the 2022, 2018, trading hands on chain than ever before? Bitcoin sits on, what's a good example? Ibit's ETF.
Ibit, more Bitcoin under management than micro strategy.
If one seller sells today, but at the same time some other seller is buying, they don't sell the Bitcoin.
They just update the ledger of like, okay, who owns this Bitcoin?
reallocate i mean they just update the ledger of like okay who owns this bitcoin and you know
they don't they don't sell that bitcoin and then buy it back from on chain they're just like all
right well we found a we found a seller and we mashed them up with a buyer and my worry is uh
does that even reflect on nbrb well it won't be realized when somebody buys and sells a share in an etf because you're correct
right the etf just holds the bitcoin and so but but right now so that's my so that's my worry is
on chain and maybe this is a bigger discussion is on chain analysis less accurate than ever before. Well, maybe, but what fraction of, you know, the Bitcoin do the ETFs currently hold?
And as far as I'm aware, it's still like not that much.
It's like not more than 50%.
I mean, okay.
If we add up, well, we know that, I'm sorry, here, you go ahead.
I'm sorry here you go ahead. I'll look up the stats. So I'm not killing time
I'll look up the stats.
So I'm not killing time.
So basically as long as you know, as long as you're in a situation where most of the
You know most of the Bitcoin is not held by ETFs, right?
So there may be 5 10 20 percent is in ETFs
But 80 plus percent is not in ETFs then on-chain metrics probably still going to be
kind of okay when it gets the stage where 80 of the bitcoin is in etfs then you know bitcoin's
probably that's really bad for bitcoin um and it will probably break a lot of these metrics
but i don't think that's happened yet no no no uh uh we're's the wrong metric. It's not held by ETFs. Trading volume,
how much of the daily, weekly, monthly trading volume is done by strategy and Bitcoin spot ETFs?
That would be more interesting because you're absolutely right, Naka.
There's lots of OG whales that are sitting on their wallets.
You know, maybe they've got two, maybe they've got 10,
maybe they're public, maybe they're private,
but they're just sitting on them.
And those coins don't trade.
They don't move.
They just sit there.
But where's all the trading volume?
It's probably via BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK, ARKs, Bitwise, Valkyrie,
you name it.
It's certainly strategies, wallet, you know,
all that trading volume, that's where's that being captured? And as soon as that trading volume
grows more and more via ETFs and more and more, not even just ETFs, but like Coinbase itself. You know, Coinbase at any given moment has millions of Bitcoins under its assets under management.
It's not. And when Coinbase itself has a buyer and a seller and they match them up,
sure, that's real buying and selling. That's not paper Bitcoin.
But you never see it on chain because they didn't need to move any coin
so i i worry i wonder maybe that's what's different from 20 2011 2015 2018 i mean there
there have been centralized there have been centralized exchanges since you know 2014 right
so like centralized exchanges holding coins is is is kind of not, you know,
it's not really going to skew the stats that much. Um, yeah, but the, but,
but would you agree that ETFs plus strategy plus centralized exchanges,
that volume is only up on the volume on those?
Yeah, but it's not necessarily the volume that matters because imagine if everything was on chain,
right?
There was no ETFs and no centralized exchanges.
It's all on chain.
If you and I are like traders and we're trading the five-minute chart and we're back and forth
with the same small amount of Bitcoin to generate a very large volume with a small amount of
coins, that's actually not going to have a particularly big effect on the realized value. Because if you have a coin that moved yesterday
and then it moves again today, well, it picks up a new realized value. But because the price
doesn't move that much in a day, it makes a couple percent, it's not going to make that
much difference, right? What really makes a difference is when a coin that's been dormant
for a long time moves, that will change the realized value a lot.
And, you know, coins that have been dormant for a long time, probably behave a little bit like
ETF balances. Cause like these, these ETFs, you know, if a lot of people all start dumping Bitcoin
and the ETF start emptying out, you know, eventually they're going to have to, you know,
move some of those coins around. I guess there is the problem that like well they could just store them all on coinbase
and you know everyone loves coinbase custody so it just never moves but yeah so basically i think
at the current time and i just looked it up it's about six percent of bitcoin is in etfs i i'm not
worried about that but i mean if it was like 80 then yeah i'd be worried um but it isn't
that, but I mean, if it was like 80%, then yeah, I'd be worried.
Um, but it isn't.
So, so basically I think like, I think if you look at MVRV, I think it's
clearly telling you the bottom's not in.
Um, but it's, it's, you know, we're not that far.
I mean, MVRV is basically telling you, if you look at the previous markets,
where were the previous markets when MVRV was at this value?
You know, we had probably like another 50% to drop, right?
So that would line up with 30k prediction or 30 to 35k, maybe even 30 to 40k.
Yeah, so I think MVRV is one way you can do it. I think there are some other ways you can do it. Just looking at, you know, what, what were the sequence of drawdowns? So, you know, one drawdown was like negative 80%, negative 85%, exception. You just do those on a sequence. The next drawdown should probably be about negative 70%. And we're not there yet.
and we're not there yet um sullivan go ahead man you have your hand just thanks i uh yeah i mean i
Sullivan, go ahead, man.
kind of feel like on-chain analysis was probably more useful in previous cycles i mean etf data at
the very least is obfuscating a lot um like what the intentions of the coins that have been
transacted is ultimately going to be right and I say that because we often see these metrics,
right, of whales accumulating, like whales have accumulated Bitcoin at the highest rate ever.
You know, I've seen that pretty much the whole downtrend because it's, I don't know, it's almost
like ETFs buy and it's almost as if a lot of on-chain analysis is just making an assumption
that these coins should now be considered
illiquid or dormant, whatever adjective you want to use. But I think the buying for Bitcoin
is largely a result of upside correlation in a secular bull market for equities,
like point blank period. We were bouncing. I mean, we saw obviously a coin base premium on Bitcoin today, right?
A lot of, a lot of upside volume.
What did we also see?
Okay.
Well, equities also bounced, uh, also bounced really aggressively.
So how does that shift if we get a secular downtrend or a very outsized move down on
equities?
I think that the correlation, you're going to find pretty quickly
that Bitcoin still trades as a tech asset or a tech beta asset. And it's showing you that because
of the way how correlated it's traded to things like software ETFs, right? Like IGV. I mean,
just look at the structural similarities between something like IGV and Coinbase.
You know, I don't really need to see too much more
to know that Bitcoin is not trading as a commodity currently.
It's trading as tech beta.
So, you know, the idea that, all right, well, wells are accumulating,
therefore Bitcoin has to resolve higher here as this is an accumulation range.
Well, then you better see tech go higher too.
Because if tech goes lower, you're going to see Bitcoin go lower.
And you're finally going to see the negative correlation side of that as well. Right. We've
only really seen like there have been periods where we've seen kind of that negative correlation
Bitcoin had against against equities or rather, you know, equities turn lower and Bitcoin also turns lower, but we haven't seen a real prolonged extended downtrend.
I don't feel where ETF holders start to sell more meaningfully.
But I definitely wouldn't assume that just because those coins were bought through an ETF that that supply is never going to move.
move. Yeah. I mean, basically I have, I have three reasons why I don't think the bottom is in,
right. Reason number one is MVRV and also, you know, Newpool as well. Right. So Newpool and MVRV
will basically tell you the same kind of thing but in a slightly different way um you know so
new pull new pull right now is in fear right um it's never bottomed in fear it always bottoms in
capitulation so new pull new pull is actually retesting optimism this is like a horrific time
to go long new pull retesting optimism oh my god like you know new pull in. New pool retesting optimism. Oh my God. Like, you know, new pool
in fear and then retesting optimism. Don't even just know, just absolutely. You know,
the only trade here is a short, like it's just shorted. Right. So new pool hasn't got to
capitulation yet. Right. Okay. Um, MVRV hasn't got below one. Okay. Well, those are kind of the same thing.
But like the other thing is just, you know, when I look at RSI, right, I do think RSI is important, but again, you've got to look at it. You want to buy RSI on a weekly bull divergence, right?
You want to see high low in RSI, right. And the reason you want to see that is because when RSI is at an all-time low,
it probably means price is going to go lower, even if RSI goes higher.
So you generally don't want to buy that.
And the third thing is just a very simple one, which is time.
We just haven't had enough time.
Bear markets take roughly the same amount of time and it's about
400 days and we haven't had 400 days since the all-time high.
I agree with you there that, yeah, this bear market, I think it has another 150 to 200
days to consolidate. I agree with you there, Naka. Yeah. I think both calls for 90k and 40k are irresponsible like let's let's sideways
consolidate you still got plenty of uh bears that need to hand their coins over to longer term bulls
100 but i think what's super interesting and and we're going to only know this over time, I did the backtesting for you guys.
And weekly RSI and NVRV, we're telling you the bottom is in for three cycles in a row, except this cycle.
This looks like the first time where weekly RSI says bottom's likely in and MVRV isn't there yet. And I, and, and we'll only
know in hindsight, we'll only know over time, like, which is right. Maybe RSI was just early
to the early to sniff it out and, and MVRV follows along in short order.
What about, but what about the previous cycle, right? The previous cycle had
same week MVRV. Yeah. If you you look at if you look at weekly rsi
in you know the week of like you know june june the 6th of the 13th 22 mbrv and weekly rsi told
you bottom range is in on the exact same week but that but that wasn't the bottom right like
june 2022 was not the bottom, right?
Oh, okay, okay, all right.
If you want to be exact. I mean, it literally wasn't the bottom.
There was literally more downside to go.
Naka, you're talking about the difference between 17.5 and 15.5?
You're right.
You're right.
Hold on, Naka.
Naka, but if that's your...
Again, we're coming back to
are you just trying to bet on Black Swans?
Because
that's what happened
after June 2022.
FTX capitulation
in November 2022 was the only
reason that 17-5 didn't hold
and you went to 15-5.
If that's your game,
if you're just betting on Black Swans, then throw MS... that 17.5 didn't hold and you went to 15.5. But like, if that's your game,
if you're just betting on black swans,
then throw MS, then throw MBRG and RSI out the window.
When I look at technical metrics, I don't ask,
I generally don't ask why the price went there.
I just say that it did.
So it did actually go lower.
And when it did go lower, it made a higher,
a higher low in RSI.
And that was a signal, right? High, low in RSI.
Okay.
We've made a low loan price on the weekly and a high, low in RSI.
That's a bull signal.
That's a bullish diverge.
But, but come on, like Naka, the difference between 17..5 and $15.5 is 10%.
Yeah, but I mean, $17.5 for Bitcoin, that's only a week.
I mean, if you look at the weekly candles, they were about $20K.
I mean, the weekly candles in November were about $16K.
So it was like a significant discount to the actual weekly candle prices.
It was like a 15 to 20%.
Just to add to your comment, Naka,
I mean, on a weekly timeframe back in 2022,
we had a bullish divergence
back on showing that bear market law
back in 2022, I remember.
Yeah.
That's an excellent point.
And if we fast forward to four months or six months from now,
how much you want to bet our weekly RSI forms a bullish divergence
over the next three to six months?
I'm willing to bet on that.
But the risk is, hey, but good luck.
When it does, that's when you buy.
You don't buy because you think there's going to be a bullish divergence in the future.
You buy when it actually happens because that's when you actually get an decision.
There's different strategies.
You can – look, you missed the capitulation.
Either you stayed up over the weekend or overnight and you bought in the low 60s
or you didn't like that.
That happened.
Okay, let's move on.
The next strategy that's super easy, honestly, at this point, like if this is the bottom
range, take your bag of money divided by two, divided by five, divided by 10, who cares,
but like just scoop this bottom range for as long
as it lasts and you're not going to care you're not going to care
well yeah that's i mean a reasonable i think i would be more comfortable if somebody said
to me i don't know who's right is it nakamoto lisc or matt so what i'm going to do is i'm
going to set up a dollar cost average that's's going to last, you know, until the end of the year.
So I'm going to every, every day or every week, I'm going to buy the same amount
for, you know, the next 300 days.
Yeah.
Right.
Yeah.
I agree.
That is probably, that is probably, or the next, yeah, the next like 300 ish days.
That is probably a good strategy because i don't think
that bitcoin will go lower after the end of this year i don't think we will see lower prices in
2027 than we saw in 2026 100 percent yeah i think most of us will agree that could happen it's
possible but i right now i don't see that yeah right so if you just set up
if you just take your money you split into 300 portions you put it on coinbase and you dca 1
300 every day for the next 300 days i think that's good i think you should do that yeah
the way you say strategy knock Naka, is really smart.
I want to share some comments.
I mean, can I post something on the next lobby so we can discuss it all?
Yeah, go ahead, man. Thank you.
Yeah, so I did this post a while back, and I explained some things that I was considering at that time, like
from 2017 to 2018, we went down 83%.
And in the next cycle from 2021 to 2022, we went down like 77%.
So that's clearly like diminishing returns, right?
So even if we go back, even if we go down potentially from all time high
in this cycle, let's just say, let's just say 60%, which is way, way less than the two previous
cycles, right? Even 65% would potentially put us down all the way back to 45k Bitcoin or something
like that. And another thing I was watching and actually explained on my post was that on a yearly candle basis, we have never had like two back-to-back red candles in a row.
So that's another potential factor.
I mean, we also spiked from 2022 to this 125k.
We run like 700%.
That's a lot.
And on the past two market cycles,
we went below, on the weekly chart,
we went below the 200 SMA.
And on the monthly, we went below the 50 SMA.
And just to finish,
on the USDT stable coins chart,
on a high timeframe, we have seen like higher highs and higher lows on a higher timeframe on that.
So I see a scenario where we potentially break that stablecoin dominance to the upside, which would translate in a more downside for Bitcoin.
translate in a more downside for Bitcoin.
And the last thing, like actually in 2021, I also remember we went down 50%.
We went down 50% since November.
And then we had like a 30%, I think a 30% spike, I forgot, like a 30% spike.
And we retested the SMA.
So, I mean, right now we're having that potential spike. I don't know how high we're
going to spike, but that's something I'm watching closer. I mean, I have my invalidation levels and
I could be wrong and maybe Matt's right, you know, but I'm watching closely because I'm
open-minded to a possibility based on the factors I've said.
Those are good points.
Yeah, well taken.
Thank you, Matt.
Yeah, I think it's good to, you know, most of the speakers here, we were here all 2022.
We remember vividly just watching everything nuke along with Bitcoin.
But I think one thing we forget was, remember, we were watching inflation just punch higher and higher, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%.
And we watched the Fed with the fastest rate hiking cycle in our lifetimes, you know, as they were trying to kill inflation and, you know, doing
back-to-back months of plus 50 bps on Fed funds rate, you know, tuning into the FOMC meetings
and press conferences was must-see TV, like all that crap, right? that i think that's the worry the danger of just blind like
okay the this 2026 bear market has to copy 2022 because that's not that's not in the house right
now um you know back in 2022 you had massive blue chip companies like Amazon, like Meta, like Google, like, you know, on and on.
They were missing earnings, not once, not twice, but almost the entire year. You know,
these are companies that you could set your watch to. They make money. They hit their targets. They make earnings. They hire employees by the tens of thousands. And they were like, this was except for employment. This was a recession in terms of earnings, in terms of inflation, in terms like throw in the Russia-Ukraine invasion, remember oil spiked to, what was it, 120, 120 plus?
Like, 2022 was bad.
And then for Bitcoin specifically, now throw in the FTX capitulation in November.
That's not 2026.
Like, can 2026 get worse?
Sure.
But come on, let's, I think we can all admit right here, right now,
2026 is not as bad as 2022.
It will be.
Could it get worse?
Yes.
It could get worse.
Okay, it could.
But it's not in the room with us now.
And if that's your thesis that, look, 2026 is going to get a hell of a lot worse
and you want to make bets in
bearish trades based on that,
you know,
knock yourself out more power to you.
But like,
I can't,
I'm not betting on,
I'm not betting on black swans.
I'm not betting on,
I don't,
I mean,
I don't think we need world war three to happen in order for price to go
low.
Although I haven't said any of that.
If you,
if you were going to say that world war three was going to happen in order for price to go low. Although I haven't said that. If you were going to say that World War III was going to
happen, and then you notice that
you've got Iran conflict
and potential escalation with
Lebanon and Turkey and stuff,
that looks a little bit scary.
Maybe not that scary.
Not World War III. Just anything
reasonable. Like, okay, let's
see a bunch of companies missing earnings that hasn't happened. Here's, just anything reasonable. Like, okay, let's see a bunch of companies missing earnings.
That hasn't happened.
Here's something that's reasonable.
It's just that maybe this little adventure into Iran is ultimately successful,
but it just takes a little bit longer than they thought,
and it shuts down the Strait of Hummers.
So what happens when you shut down the Strait of Hummers?
Well, you know, you have energy shortages.
What do energy shortages do?
Inflation. What does inflation cause? Rates go up right i think that's one of the reasons
i think that's one of the reasons why um we haven't seen the bottom fall out because one of the first
okay i don't want to get into you know i don't want to get too much into armchair generals and
and uh pretend you know, this is easy.
You're a military man, so you actually should get into it.
All right. Well, real quick, real quick, real fast.
One of the first things that the U.S. did was sink the Iranian Navy.
So they can talk the talk, but they're going to have trouble shutting down the streets.
Well, but they have like small boats and mines and missiles and, you know, drones and like they don't, their Navy was never really the threat, right? Like it was, they were never really going to use their incredible backships to shut it down. It was like the, you know, it was the drones and the mines and the missiles.
I think the U S generals and admirals are,
are right to that,
not to let them have the capability to even try.
And we'll see,
like they might be able to,
they do have the capability.
They could try.
They do have the capability.
They are,
they are currently shutting it down,
right?
Like Qatar is,
is like turning off its main LNG terminal now,
right?
Or it's on,
on the,
I don't know whether it actually did it or announced that it was going to do it, but like they are actually like successfully terminal now, right? Or it's on the I know whether actually did it or announced it was gonna do it
But like they are actually like successfully right now
Shutting down that straight and for a couple of days. It's okay. But if that turns into like a couple of weeks, that's that's gonna have
Consequences, right?
It would go from a little adventure to a big adventure
Yeah, we're going to a big adventure and it would go into a big adventure and trump trump
has already started calling this his i think they call it a special combat operation it's not a war
it's a special combat operation does that sound familiar if you take your brains back to 2022
was there anything special and military that happened in 2020 and the do you have a special what is it that Trump called it Naka? A special
special combat operation. Sullivan do you have a special combat operation under your tools to
see where price is headed man? Are you strategizing?
Are you strategizing?
I mean, I don't really know how to answer that.
How's your strategy?
I'll be honest, man.
I really don't even think it matters what it is that sends the market down.
It's just in the charts.
That's all I'm going to say.
It's literally in the charts that we have a major, major looming correction on equity markets.
I do not think that Bitcoin will be immune to that.
I think they're all going to sell together.
That's my opinion.
I got to go run to the gym, though.
I have dinner and drinks with my mother and my wife here in about like an hour and a half.
So whatever you do, man, don't get a Chipotle burrito.
Chipotle is priced out man
chipotle is priced out of everyone's taste buds i had it the other day i had it delivered
can you believe that and i was severely disappointed man truly chipotle is like the Avax of of all fast food it used to be great people
love people really become the punchline too kind to a back swabby but remember
when a box launched and we all went on chain on a backs and and there was like
Wonderland you could you could stay underland for
like for like you know 100 000 apy can we just go back to that can we just go back to that please
it was so good it was oh man that was the biden 2021 is over naka like they're not having remember
the global i want to go back conference in porto portugal like it's not coming back look look look
look it comes back dude if democrats win the midterms that's my thesis that's when
they're gonna let this ponzi roll and i hope they do to be honest man i i hope they do um
yeah, this entire administration has been like the worst thing to happen to crypto
yeah this entire administration has been like the worst thing to happen to crypto
ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, except for the equity markets, man. Like if you're trading
stocks, then, oh dude, it's, it's been, it's been heaven for you, but for crypto, man, I'm sorry,
man, small moves on majors, just, that's not why we're here, man. That's not why we're here at all.
Fran, what's up, man?
I'm going to go to Fran and then I'm going to wrap up.
We've been going for two hours and I think it's a great time to almost wrap up here.
Fran, what's up, bro?
Hey, what's up?
No, I just wanted to point out that maybe we're also underestimating like the buying capacity of MSTR if this thing goes up, you know
Oh, I mean yeah crypto stocks are doing tremendous today, man
Coin is like up 15%
I mean MSTR was a hundred bucks and now it's trading at 146
i think yep hey i'm uh yeah i'm happy with my uh i think my average is 129. um like if you're if
you're if you think that uh bitcoin found its bottom range then that absolutely means mstr did
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