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Market Talk- Crypto ready for a BIG move?! BTC dips to 65k?!
Recorded: Feb. 18, 2026 Duration: 2:05:00Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.meme
meme2ん
ん Oh, Oh, Oh, Oh,
Oh, Oh, Oh, Oh, Oh, Oh, on the razor's edge Don't look down Just keep your head
and you'll finish
Open the limit
Pass the point of
no return
Reach the top but still you gotta learn how to keep it
You could go really down to the stakes
Throw it open like a bat out of hell
You can crash the gate
Crash the gate
Going for the back of the arm Gates. Welcome to the limits.
Take it, baby, one step forward.
I'm still playing, so we better win it. Thank you. Music Oh, my God. Thank you. Music 3, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, Welcome to the lemon Stand on all the razor heads
Don't look down and just keep your head
Welcome to the lemon
Welcome to the lemon yo what's going on evan zach Zach, what's up, bro?
It's been a minute.
Prometheus sent you a speaker invite.
Guys, welcome, welcome.
Hope you're all having a fantastic Wednesday or Thursday,
wherever you are in the world.
Welcome back to Market Talk,
brought to you by BecauseBitcoin.
My name is Wavi.
We're going to have an excellent show for you guys today.
Prices might be flat in the equity markets.
Crypto is still showing some volatility.
And I just have this feeling that there is going to be a massive trending move.
move. If you guys tuned into yesterday's show, we kind of went over one thing that is sort of taboo
now, which is seasonality. It's something that hasn't really been faithful to the crypto market
since 2024, really. Q1 has historically been bullish for markets and same goes with Q4.
And we did not see that in 2025 at all.
As a matter of fact, we saw a drastic change in seasonality where Q1 was actually extremely bearish.
Q2 was extremely bullish.
And same with q3 q2 and q3 historically they're not really bullish
at all q2 is more of a slowdown and then q3 usually have a massive dip going into labor day
and then you have a slight rebound and then then Q4, you start your rally.
Typically, that's how it goes.
We saw it in 2024.
We saw that in 2023.
We saw that in 2021 as well.
And the market, I think, potentially might be going back to that, I think, probably next year after midterms once this wall of worry is finished.
It seems right now the market just doesn't really want to do much in the equity markets until probably something geopolitical happens. I understand there are some talks about war with Iran and all that stuff, and troops might be sent out there.
And typically when that happens, you do see a nasty move in volatility.
And my bet is probably to the downside.
I think my base case still remains the same as what I said yesterday.
I think a little scare. Not as big as the tariff, because that was honestly, I think people really forget now that it's been about a year since the tariff scare.
and all that stuff and we were going to go into a regime similar to uh i think it was post.com where
the main focus was uh on main street i think they they call it that right and
not so much focus on on wall street and um i mean the tariff was just a taco in the end, right?
It was just a tariff taco, as Matt likes to call it.
But Cryptoland, there's really not much happening outside of majors having some volatility.
There are some weird things going on.
weird things going on uh you have some ethel 2 tokens blasting for for what i assume is base
potentially just stopping activity um and that would be i think that would be something that
would take eth to like 1400 um 1500 easily i think if if base is no longer a thing um
I think if base is no longer a thing, I don't really think it's going to happen.
I would bet like a 30% odds of that happening.
But if it does shut down, then potentially that would cause a resurgence in ETH mainnet.
But there would be massive pain, in my opinion, first off.
But you have an L2.
I think it's called espresso
it just shot up to all-time high over the last two days or close to all-time highs
from uh from what i saw on the chart you also have some crime happening on uh the uh xpl chain
which is really really something else man it seems like on chain right now it's kind of like a basket of
no one really knows it's going to happen sometimes you might have crime to the upside
or the downside but um i really hope base actually does stay alive that chain is really fruitful when
conditions become great but coinbase does have a history of um launching big products and then just
annihilating them um if you saw the nft marketplace that was probably the biggest one you're talking
about hundreds of millions worth of investment um and now they're doing their earnings calls with BrainRot at the top of Brian Armstrong's screen when he's speaking.
And Bass, I think, hadk, AI16Z, Go.
I think that's pretty much it as far as tokens that went to billions on Sol.
And on base, you had KTA, you had Virtuals.
What else am I missing prometheus try to is there is there anything else that wants
the billions on base outside of virtuals um and kta there's there's like virtuals kta i think maybe
vvv did briefly uh oh yeah that was like high fdV. That was like a high FDV run token, right?
Yeah. I don't think that
there was too many because...
Oh, AIXBT. That's the one I'm missing, bro.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
It kind of caught...
Base kind of caught the tail end of the on-chain
flows. It didn't really prosper
a lot from the 23 beginning of
24 flows. Yeah.
There was another one, too, man.
It escaped my mind, but I know AIXVT hit just below a bill.
So I think maybe Sol had like maybe one or two more billion dollar runners.
I know BOEM was one of them um but
nonetheless you did have tokens that also went to hundreds of millions uh within the virtuals
ecosystem you also had ray that went to like 250 and um my goodness man if they actually do shut
down base oh you also had brett that's right that was the ticker man brett went to like two billion or whatever it was toshi might have scratched a billion too
got close which one toshi oh right right right right yeah that's oh my gosh man they
you guys remember when when coinbase launched toshi in the middle of like the tariff bear market
and they just pumped the absolute crap out of it
oh man dude man out of all the crime that coinbase can commit that they want they do the
most ridiculous things man um honestly they they spent a hundred mil to buy up only tv when they
could have easily pumped a few tickers uh to like a hundred mil because a hundred mil and liquidity
Doesn't necessarily mean that you can only pump one ticker to a hundred mil. That's like at least like four. You know what I'm saying?
I know with aura you guys remember that that
Crime pump that happened with or on sold Soul, the meme, in the summer?
It pumped from, like, 1 mil to 220.
And I think the amount of money that was injected into that chart was, like, 7 mil.
If that.
If that.
But either way, I'm going to go ahead and pass it on over to you guys here on the panel
before i do that guys i want to thank you all so much whether you're listening to the stream
right now live or the recording and for those of you that are listening to the recording right now
if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space best way to do that guys is by clicking the spaces tab once you guys
do that right above our profile pictures you'll see a nice link above that says x.com slash i
slash spaces you guys can go ahead hit the like button hit the retweet button does a number of
things helps to bring out the show more into the algorithm helps bring more people in here
so we're going to go ahead and rant about the markets now um open claw and anthropic continue
to capture mindshare and um i'm hopeful that on chain is going to have some sort of way to position
for all this thing i know on base there has been some ai stuff that's been
running it's just the ceilings have been crap or the lifespan of these tokens have only been
about two three days tops um
and some of them cap out at like 10 mil, 11 mil.
And you have guys that get a lot of the supply,
and you're talking about buying the supply at sub 1 mil,
and they dump at like 8 or 9, and then they just full clip at 10.
And, you know, there's some on-chain analysis people that are like,
oh, a whiff whale, a bonk whale, or whatever token whale has bought this token.
They have a good on-chain history. And most of the activity happened before trump even came into office and
there's not much alpha in in in wales buying a token anymore because effectively everyone
including people that still hold some of these memes have just decided that the market just sucks
the market just sucks overall and you're probably just going to need people to bid majors
man you need people to actually
buy ETH
and Solana but maybe I'm
Cooked maybe I'm Unk
fruitful time
periods on chain usually
happen when ETH is above 3200
and Sol
is well above
180 at the very least.
At least that's when you know that easy mode is here.
But for those
that like the position early, like myself,
I'd at least want to see some
higher time frame uptrends
and not so much this
accumulation kind of stuff.
Not much happens during accumulation.
People are trying to extract when it gets boring.
They're trying to extract with these small ceilings.
And anyways, I'm just going to go ahead and pass it on over
because I know I'm just going to rant and rant and rant.
And it sounds like I'm bitching right now when that's not really my that's not, that's not really my intention, man.
I just want this trending move to happen and I want it to happen fast.
These uncertain time periods in markets when Trump is in office are usually quite quick
and base case is still Powell leaving office.
And when Warsh comes in, you have that final dip.
He's on the Epstein list, man.
I don't really like that either.
I don't like that Warsh is on that list at all.
That's another thing, too, that I think is just going to have the market
slide a bit more when that guy comes in.
But I think that's going to be the dip that causes some stimulus to enter the market.
I think Joe would probably know more about this or even David.
I know the Fed is going to inject $16 billion into the market.
I'm really not sure what that's going to do.
what that's going to do.
I think that's not even the amount of flows
that happen within a week in the equity markets.
The passive boomer flow,
I'm not really sure how much that's going to impact markets,
if it is at all.
Evan Prometheus, do you know where that money is going?
The amount of money that's going to be
injected into the market tomorrow or is it just going to be like something into treasuries or
something like that i have no idea genuinely yeah i didn't see i i don't yeah it's not something i
follow that closely unfortunately yeah joe probably knows more about that but um yeah i think it's it's good to assume that kind
of like with the election uh when trump got in there's gonna be like probably a whipsaw
um a small pump and then just like a final blow and everyone i I think everyone's just going to be like, damn,
I thought this guy was going to be,
was going to be someone that makes Greenspan look like Volker or Yellen look like Volker.
And then that's going to be that bottom.
But either way,
Evan.
I see Sullivan in the audience.
For those that don't know, we're going to be sending out Sullivan to Miami to help avenge Clav and assemble the Clvengers. And he's right now the number one ranked crypto gooner. And I think he's going to frame the ASU frat leader. So, Evan, what's going on, bro?
What's going on, Wabi?
Always great talking to you, man.
Always great talking to you.
I mean...
You feel the huge move incoming, man?
It's like equities are chopping.
BTC is moving.
And it's now moving like 3% to 4% a day,
which, I mean, that's something that that
tells us like all right something's about to happen and plus it's the year of the horse the
first day right as it was yesterday yeah um yeah no 100 man i mean it's you know i'll start with
just you know basic stuff s&p 500 has been choppy sideways really since October of last year. You're
still at the same exact price. You're either going to break up or break down. I think you're getting
really close. I mean, this could be a choppy month for everything, honestly. I would think
the latest that you would see an actual significant move down would be the beginning of march s&p 500 your first target is going to be
down to about and why is my screen not going oh it's going to be down to around 660 something like
that that area which is not like down that much but you know you definitely once you you're coiling
up for a while and once you break downward like you could come all the way down to you know your
daily 200 moving average at 650 those would be the next points i would be kind of targeting that
would be kind of the case that um a couple people talked about more of a choppy you know s&p 500
the two day as well though and this would be if i had to really guess where you would kind of bottom
out this year would be 200 daily sma on the two day And that would be right around a 12% correction, 611. That's the
two peaks from back from February of 25 and December of 24. I think those two peaks are
very significant. So I think you're gearing up for that to come down. Now, S&P 500 coming down
12% from where it is right now. Does that mean Bitcoin has to go down to 30K or 20K or zero or
10K like Peter Schiff says? No, absolutely not. I mean, S&P 500 going down, let's say 12% from
where we are right now, that could easily be a bottom for Bitcoin 27% down from where it is
right now, you know, 48K, 50K, those areas. And, you know, that still would be a big bleed against
S&P 500, But that doesn't mean
it's any catastrophic number. That's not no crazy number at all. If you look at kind of betting
odds, you know, in Polymarket or wherever, I mean, the odds are very low that Bitcoin really goes
significantly below like 40K for that matter. So to get your hopes up and obviously the odds are
very low as well that Bitcoin goes above like, you know, 80 or 90K this year, you know, areas like that as well.
So just keep that in mind.
That's probably the range you're going to be in.
You know, I generally think you're in a very good DCA area.
Now, if we get into more of the short term here for, you know, let's talk about Bitcoin a little bit.
Let's get more to short term potentials, things here.
Not looking too good.
I would say you're probably going to chop a little bit more.
You know, this is just basic. You know, you're in the range. I would guess you're going to jump
up relatively soon. If you do break down, though, you got a pretty big target around 62K.
If you somehow break upward, seemingly less likely, 76K is a big point. There is a really
big point that I have at around 73k. That would be your
fake out point. You make a higher high than what you saw on February 8th. You'd ever be excited.
Then you reject hard and come back down to 60k. And if you've been following Bitcoin for a few
years, that's probably not surprising at all to you. That's what you're used to, getting your
hopes up and then crushing your dreams. So the thing there is, yeah, I mean, that's kind of what we're looking at. In terms of a bottom though, I mean, I do
think it's very likely it's going to be earlier this year. You know, it could be as early as April
or May of this year, maybe even next month if things get violent and you go down to, you know,
50K next month. Then the reason why is because it's normally, you know, bottomed earlier
every single time. Last time was November. Arguably without FTX, it really was June when you hit that
bottom. Ethereum bottomed in June. So I would argue it could be earlier, you know, this time
around. And especially, you know, you look at 2022, that was, you know, there was a lot of fear
there. There was a lot of major stuff happening. You got Trump in office, you know, he's on a very, he's like the technical analysis on
Trump itself is like hitting major support.
I feel like, I feel like it's going to jump a little bit and there's going to be a little
bit more trust there and more money put back into the markets in a few months.
So there's that now Ethereum as well, you know, big points right here.
I can't talk too much about Ethereum.
I think that's just a wait and see game.
But I do think you'll at least revisit the lows, probably at $1,700.
You know, Bitcoin going down to $48K, you know, let's assume ETH kind of does the same.
Or, you know, $1,300 to $1,500, you would kind of guess those areas.
It's possible with monetary policy, ETH has bottomed against Bitcoin, but I wouldn't bet
on that yet.
I think it's a little bit more of a waiting game there.
You know, I mean, everybody wants to know about the NASDAQ probably.
Let me mention that briefly.
I mean, you know, I think that that probably will bleed significantly against the S&P 500
as it's done so far this year.
You know, I would assume that S&P 500 going down 12%,
this thing's going down at least 15, maybe 20%. And those same peaks that I talked about in the
S&P 500, those December 24 and February of 2025 peaks are at around 540, high 530s for the NASDAQ.
And that would equate with your general, you know, 15% correction, I think happens every
one to two years with the NASDAQ, one to two years with your general you know 15 correction i think happens every
um one to two years with the nasdaq one to two years in the nasdaq so that's going to be the big area and remember i mean these moves could happen relatively quickly you could see that by
april may for that bottom then you could recover and potentially make a new all-time high
by the end of this year early next year and um you know i think the next bull run for bitcoin is
going to be pretty good i mean there's diminished returns and all that.
I mean, you may only get up to 150K, but 200K is definitely in the cards and maybe even higher.
So there's definitely a lot of potential here.
I think the most important thing for the average, you know, retail investor, average person listening is, you know, just follow the strategy.
DCA in, you know, don't do anything stupid.
Don't don't sell low.
You know, you got to be in this for a few years.
You know, like Michael Saylor says, you got to sell your kidneys. You can't sell the Bitcoin You got to be in this for a few years. Like Michael Saylor says,
you got to sell your kidneys. You can't sell the Bitcoin. I'm kidding about that part. But
I mean, you got to kind of be diamond hands to a certain extent, especially
when you get into those kind of DCA areas here. You got to kind of follow the strategy.
I'll end this by saying there's a few things that look attractive for the next few months that
probably will continue to outperform Bitcoin. Energy, XLE still looks pretty good. XLP, I'm not going to say
who talks about that a lot, but I think he's right about that. XLP looks at consumer staples,
probably will do pretty well for the next few months at least. Joe Carlosari mentioned yesterday
emerging markets and KRE, regional banks, those look pretty good too. All that type of stuff,
including Berkshire Hathaway too, which has a lot of exposure to that. Next couple months,
that looks pretty strong, especially if you do see S&P 500, NASDAQ, correct. You're going to see
a lot of wealth perseverance with all the ETFs I just mentioned. So yeah.
just mentioned so yeah man evan always a class act bro always incredible to have you on the show
um you know the altcoin space doesn't really have much breadth when uh cosmos adam And Cosmos Adam is among the top gainers for majors, man.
That really is something else.
And I hope Solana doesn't end up like Adam.
And I say that because Solana is experiencing a massive inflationary issue with their tokenomics.
They really need to release that uh that star
dancer upgrade otherwise like this thing basically has no wind behind its sails um and if we see if
we see btc at sub 50 oh my gosh man um so probably takes like a at least like another 30 to 40 percent haircut i would say at least
another 30 to 40 percent haircut um and eth yeah i agree probably sweeps the low from from last
april i'm definitely not buying the the doom of like eth breaking below 800, the June
2022 low.
But sweeping the low of last April,
for sure, man.
For sure.
But I do think with
Ethereum, for example,
and even
Solana, I think the thing to watch out
for is probably some
of the stronger coins like Hyperliquid.
Because I think we know how this market works sometimes.
And we know that people leverage their alts to buy other alts or they leverage their Bitcoin to buy alts.
And I think to myself, like, what happens to Ethan's soul if Hyperliquid starts showing
some weakness, right?
How many people have probably bought against their Ether soul to purchase Hyperliquid?
So that's why I don't want to be so definitive on a bottom because if hype starts showing weakness, there's a possibility people might start selling their ETH and soul to top up their loans.
And that's one thing.
That's like a little mini cascade.
And I'm sure some of these digital asset treasury companies have done uh have done
this you know zach what's going on bro it's been a minute how are you yo what's up wabi yeah um
yeah man i mean evan great breakdown man yeah i just basically um have basically you know when
it dipped down to 60k i bought like three times that day and,
you know, kind of letting the dust settle now. And just basically with Bitcoin, I've just got buys set at like 65, 62, 58, 55, and just kind of set it and forget it. And honestly, what I've
done, man, is just let that be and really kind of focus on trading altcoins right now. Like, I find myself trading a lot more in these type of markets
than opposed to bullish markets.
I don't really know why.
But you mentioned that espresso thing that fired up.
One of the things I've been doing for a really long time
is Coinbase markets.
You can just follow them on X.
And I put all the notifications on
it's been pretty good to me man i i've i've won more than i've lost kind of trying to front run
some of those listings um so that's one that's one that just popped up there like i think it was
like four or five days ago on the espresso one aztec also had a nice little pop um did really good on that one so i'm just
trying to find little little like nooks and crannies that that not a lot of people are
looking at right now in the market and just take what the market's giving me you know on on the
trading side uh sometimes spot or sometimes like super low leverage um and just making some plays
i mean honestly like that that's kind of it. I don't feel super comfortable dollar cost averaging in size
to some of these top altcoins.
Not yet.
So that's kind of my approach right now.
It's like buying Bitcoin when it has a really bad red day,
kind of sitting idle, waiting to see what Bitcoin's going to do,
and then take what the market gives you with some of the altcoins right now and some of the new listings, you know, just kind of following
that side of the market right now. But yeah, man, I too think, you know, if we look at the top from
last year, if that's, you know, our traditional traditional markets usually it's about 12 months from
that top to where it bottoms roughly right so i still think later 2026 if we had to put like a
timeline on it uh is where you know i think we could really see a nice resurgence and it kind
of lines up with a lot of the other things we were talking about too with it being an election
year and things like that so i'm just making sure, you know, money on the sideline ready for that. And
obviously there'll still be time to front run. I think a lot of the altcoins once the dust settles,
but yeah, that's essentially where I'm at, man, and what I'm doing. And honestly focused a lot
on just high conviction stocks and looking at all that stuff, assessing
where I'm at there, adding to some of those positions. And, um, you know, I think one thing
I've been trying to tell my folks that, you know, listen on spaces and YouTube and stuff like that
is I feel like a lot of times, man, people tend to like check out during these times. I think,
I think the exact opposite is what we should be doing. It's actually the time to like double down and put a lot more time and energy and like focus
into your portfolio. And like, what do you like? What do you not like? Like, cause like when we
get into those heated rallies and craziness, like there's really no time to, to think, at least
that's the way I feel, man. You know, it's like during these down times, I tend to focus a lot
more on like strategy
and all right what am i doing what have i done well here as of late what have i not done and
you know as well and and things like that but uh those are some of my thoughts
so expresso got listed on coinbase yeah bro it was um so yeah that coinbase markets thing i've
been following that forever i don't know if you remember bio protocol um it was um so yeah that coinbase markets thing i've been following that forever i don't
know if you remember bio protocol um it was that was that on soul uh i think it was multi-chain i
want to say it was on both i think it was on ethan saw but yeah dude that thing i don't know where
it's at now but it got listed on coinbase and it was like it's usually like a delayed reaction like
two to three days later roughly and. And they tend to moon.
It's not every time, obviously.
There's no perfect system.
But it's been good to me.
I did really good on that bio one.
I did good on Aztec.
That Aztec one was crazy because Vitalik's behind it.
They launched that damn thing at like 2.30 in the morning, which was so freaking weird.
Wait, was that the privacy thing?
Yes, that's the privacy layer on ETH.
It's sitting at like a 50-year-old market cap.
It's down a little bit right now, but I'm tracking it.
I'm looking for another entry, actually, into that right now.
But yeah, that's been a good strategy for me, man, watching that Coinbase markets page
and do a little digging, see what you like, see who's behind behind it that kind of thing and and find some plays that way i'm looking at base right now man um i'm looking
at all the the things that have trended on base over the last like two weeks um anti hunter clonch kelly claude and they they're all printing solana on chain
patterns man all of them and they have the usual the usual people just guiding everyone until the charts are down 90% and then they move on to the next one.
I think the worst part, man, is like we're now in an on-chain environment where like once you start seeing things in clear downtrends and a specific ticker,
you'll see some of these people compare it to popcat or mog or whiff
and that is like a huge slap to the face to everyone that's been here over the last few years
um at that point you know it's cooked man like once the fractal the fractal comparisons come out for upside it's like
terrible it's terrible it really is man um
i'm not sure which one of these is going to come back honestly uh you just have you have a lot of the people that buy early into these things.
They clip out going into 10 mil and right out of 10 mil.
And then they go back into the chart with smaller amounts.
And they get people excited when it's just exit liquidity so they can dump the rest from their side wallets.
I remember Aztec, they were raising a ton of money in 2022, 2023.
If that's the Aztec that's been around for a couple of years,
have you played on Chainman?
Do you think base is going to shut down?
People have been speculating and i ask that because like
you know we look at things like optimism right who the hell uses optimism it's a it's a i understand
it's a tech stack but i'm talking about like the actual chain itself and even things that are built
on optimism like caldera nobody uses that man it's just a bunch of bots just
it's just a bunch of bots creating fake transactions and stuff
100 man honestly i i haven't i haven't done a ton on base. The only thing I've really done is try to catch a couple of those runners,
like Brett, which I did decent on, and Toshi,
and missed out on a couple other ones.
But I don't know, man.
The whole meme coin game is just totally different, bro.
It's just, I honestly think in a lot of ways,
the whole pump.fun thing just really ruined a lot of ways, the whole pump dot fund thing just, just really ruined a lot of,
a lot of the good that was there. It's this, there's just too much stuff out there. There's
like, there's not enough liquidity. I, I honestly think there there's going to be a big shift now
with like with the institutions coming in here. I think where I want to put my money is just
where protocols are actually making money. And that's been my big shift.
But I mean, coming into that market, like the whole Dogecoin era, because that's when I really came into crypto.
It was crazy, man.
But it was also a lot easier to kind of jump ship to the next one.
You know what I mean?
It felt like you were jumping ship to the next one with 80% of the people. And it was like, you can actually, if you're locked in and kind of like following everything,
you can actually kind of see where the things are going.
Now it's just, there's too much to track.
There's, you know, there's too much margin for error.
Like it's just too risky in a lot of ways.
I mean, I don't know.
My focus has just been ever since we got into the bear market in 2022,
I just realized, bro, I don't own enough Bitcoin, man. And by no way am I like a Bitcoin maxi. I
don't think that's the right attitude either because you've basically told yourself you've
figured it all out and you're stopping, you know, stop learning, which I don't agree with.
But in general, man, it's just like,
it's all, it's all big risks, man. It's speculative. And that's what makes it exciting.
But like, you got to take like calculated risks here in the market. Like you can't just,
you know, throw it around. You know, you could kind of do that in 2021. And, and like, you know,
if you were around long enough, you were going to catch a wave on that, on that one token you're in
now, it's just like, you got to be super selective with what you're
doing. Right. Um, it's just, it's a totally different environment. And, you know, I've
heard you talk a lot about hype and, and these perp decks is, I don't think that narrative is
going away at all, man. Um, and, and they're, they're spinning off cash, man, you know? So
I want to go where people are actually making money,
where the institutions are going to do, right?
Yeah.
I think someone is going to blow someone up on Hyperliquid at some point.
Either Tradify is going to blow up crypto
or crypto-native people are going to blow up TradFi at some point.
And it's going to happen on Hyperliquid.
It's going to be a movie, I think.
I think it all circles back into Hyperliquid, doesn't it?
Kind of like in 2019, when people saw Uniswap launch
and Chainlink was making a lot of moves,
the consensus was, you know, I'm just going to buy more ETH, right?
But what challenged people during that time period was the range that ETH was in.
ETH was in a range for a minute.
And I think with hype, right, now that the trend is the tokenization of things,
I wouldn't say, like, hype would be in a range i just
think the volatility to the downside is that something that people can handle um because
there is a possibility that hyper liquid could be trading at like 12 bucks 11 bucks or something
like that um and i that that's just a suspicion that I might have.
But if you're a long-term guy, right, like buying hype at sub 100 is probably great.
It's just a matter of like how comfortable are you if your position goes like 50 to 60 percent against you
and you have to average down.
I think that would be the case for uh for hype
because in 2019 man a lot of people thought it was all over a lot of people thought it was just
completely over for ethereum despite uniswap launching um and also i think compound um
And also, I think Compound. Wait, no, Comp didn't release until after. No, Synthetix, that's the one I was talking about. Synthetix, that was the one. That was the one.
And the thing was about that is like who's going to go and use Ethereum to trade synthetic assets, right?
Nobody, right?
So synthetics didn't do anything for years until the COVID run.
And again, it was all speculative, right?
But with hype, it's like the product is already there.
I just don't think you can have your cake and eat it and be like, all speculative, right? But with hype, it's like the product is already there.
I just don't think you can have your cake and eat it and be like,
all right, cool, hype is going to be in this huge range. So it's either going to be a massive breakdown or a massive break upwards.
I don't think it's going to be in a range for a minute.
Because, I mean, even if you look at last year in Q1,
Hyperliquid only ranged for about a
month and then it just imploded right so if you want to bet on vol on volatility hyperliquid is
has shown over the last 15 months that it's like the asset to have to both the upside um and the
downside but anyways man evan have you ever played on
hyper liquid bro go ahead go ahead zach i just wanted to ask you something real quick wabi so
what's your take on a lot because you mentioned chain link what's your take on a lot of these
governance tokens and you know i look at like chain link and ando right great companies terrible tokens like that's essentially where we
are right now and it sucks right because i love what ando's doing i love what chain links doing
but like investing in the token doesn't mean anything right and so i don't know if any of
that can be like fixed or you know with clarity act something like that. But there's a lot of that, right, in crypto where it's like,
man, if you just look at it from a business standpoint
and, like, what they're actually doing and what they mean, you know,
to the industry, it's a great company.
But, like, the token or coin itself is like, oh, man,
like, there's no correlation there, right?
It's like, I don't know what your take is on that,
but that's something I've been struggling with a lot and like kind of rebalancing some of the stuff that i've got
yeah i think i'd just rather buy uh i think i'd just rather buy like some hood calls or some hood
leaps um at the bottom of a market or during a trending market instead of buying Spotlink,
even though HUD trades at like a 9x multiple compared to Link's market cap.
But I mean, if you just look at the rally that Link had before the election, Link was trading at like 11 bucks.
Yeah, late October, 11 bucks, and then into mid-December traded at $28, right?
And if you take a look at something like a hood, for example, right?
Hood was trading at 27 bucks, right? Hood was trading at $27 in late October, right?
And then effectively went to like almost $70.
So I think, I mean, it went to $70, like close to $70 a few months later.
I went to close to $70 a few months later.
And during that momentum rally, going into early December,
Hood went to $40+.
So if you bought some calls, if you bought some leaps,
probably some leaps because those are a bit more safer than calls.
like a bit more safer than um than calls um it's a safer long i think compared to something like
link which has effectively been in a downwards loop against bitcoin for five and a half years
um that's where i'm at with that and yeah yeah, that's, that's kind of where I'm at, dude.
I compare everything to hype, um, and hood.
Uh, cause there's not much, I just don't think there's going to be much beta coming out that we don't already have outside of like the little narratives that happen in between.
Yeah, but I'll say this, when Link does go into an uptrend or starts having a little outperformance on lower timeframes against majors,
market conditions do tend to be good.
We look at late October of 2023,
Link spiked up from, what was it, $6 all the way to almost $20.
And then you had everything going ballistic after that.
That's what I have to say about that, man.
Anytime Link actually does go on a small uptrend, that's when you know, all right, if Link is doing okay, then the broader market is doing okay.
Same thing with B is like, I remember I had Zorn on the show like two years ago, two and a half years ago in like fall of 23. And one thing that he had mentioned was that if you want to have a gauge of whether it's easy mode or not, or easy mode is about to happen in crypto for alts you look at bnb and
link and they have a history over the over the last few years where anytime they just flatline
and they start to go up a bit the broader market just goes ballistic yeah but I think just so you can like save
yourself some stress
dude Hypen Hood
is like the ultimate barbell for
for Zoomer
the double H's bro you know
how the equities have the QQQ
right well it's like
two H's it's only one more
H from Triple H if you see
wrestling right you know triple h is right
oh hell yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah so it's like hyper liquid and hood um and i would even argue
that palantir is gonna destroy ethereum um at least in the short term um because even if zerp and qe come back dude like
i'm sorry but leaps on palantir versus like spot ethereum
it's i think it's going to be night and day and this is like nvidia 300 bill
um but of course you got to wait for the the market to go back into
like a higher time frame uptrend I could be just talking out of my butt here
honestly I have a tendency to yap a lot but if you just see the way the world
is headed it's like I don't know if I should say I don't know if I should say, I don't know.
If I say too much, I feel like my edge would be decayed, but I'll say it anyway, because there's not much people today.
But if you look at, I'll bring these people up, hold on. the way AI is right now it's national security but many people many people
that are unsophisticated in in in these markets they don't know that yet they
just think like oh it's just speculative right it's gonna be a boom and busts
right so I'm gonna come back it's all speculative a lot of people just think
that this is a temporary thing. AI is a temporary thing.
It's just chat GPT and some people making anime videos, right?
But it's a lot more than that.
It's a lot more than that.
And I think once people realize, oh, dude, this is Google.
This is Google post.com, right? This is straight up, this is Google. This is Google, like post.com, right?
This is straight up and to the right.
This is infinite bid, right?
This is an infinite twop from the government buying into some of these companies.
And then you compare it to something like Ethereum.
It's like, what's the need for that?
Ethereum is a momentum trade.
It's a momentum trade when fiscal monetary policy is easy and
there's like DeFi protocols giving you 10,000% APY. And by the time that happens,
you could have compounded your money with something like a Palantir. Or maybe I'm wrong,
maybe I'm talking stupid. But that's kind of how I'm viewing everything. And I just think like by the time Chainlink moves, you'd be able to capture so much upside
in the stock market and then probably rotate that into like hyperliquid.
And I think just as you saw high caps in the stock market outperform quote unquote high
caps in crypto, right?
You can see high caps in crypto outperform mid caps.
You can see Hyperliquid effectively outperform Chainlink by like a 5x multiple,
which is like my base case.
You don't really need the link token.
You don't.
And if you want to talk about unsophisticated capital and in tradfi
coming into crypto i think the effect that you're going to see on hyperliquid is going to make what
we saw in luna when tradfi started to buy luna look like a warm-up um at least that's my that's
my take but i think i've said too much, man. I've said way too much.
I think there's alpha in keeping some things to yourself,
but thankfully there's not many people in the room today.
But that's what I have to say about that, man.
I hope that answers your question, though.
I really try to go in depth with this because with things like spaces
and just content in general, I find it really annoying when you speak to someone and they just give you two sentences.
And it's like, I'm talking to a wall here, right?
I try to do my best to be very thorough, even though sometimes it can come off as word salad.
Yeah, that's what I have to say about that man um even things like you can take a look at
something like a micron for example and compare it against ethereum you want to talk about
national security issues and all that stuff this thing is like straight up only so i'm not telling
anyone to buy a micron right now i'm just saying like whenever the the overall market starts to go into an uptrend like
you kind of want to start comparing where the attention is and what you think where you think
it's gonna go but um anyways prometheus what's going on bro i'm gonna pass it over to you then i'm gonna pass
it over to david but zach do you have anything else that you wanted to say man before i pass
the mic over no man that's good shit i appreciate that that's good stuff yeah thanks man um i just
think like markets are just they're just attention based it. It's all attention-based. And when you try to, when you
try to do this thing, like, oh, dude, I think capital's going to go over here. No one's talking
about it. So it's going to go up. It's like, that's not, that's not really the way it works,
man. Like for playing majors before the election, we had Jackis and Louis talk about all right when trump comes in the xrp lawsuit is
going to be dropped or whatever and i was playing on chain so i'm like i'm not going to buy xrp or
anything like that and then like the moment the microsecond trump got elected xrp does like a
liquid 3x or like a 5x or whatever it was and then you had stellar lumens blow up
to the upside basically basically the uh products that were under scrutiny went up like crazy so
that was like that was like something that a lot of people knew what was coming that was an easy
trade but you wouldn't have positioned into something like an avax because you were seeing
you know the launch of hyper liquid was going to happen any day now so you think all right an l1
trade is going to be back on the table and avax is doing all these incentives so i'm going to go
buy avax because it's the l1 that hasn't pumped yet but i'm just going to stop man i'm going to go by AVAX because it's the L1 that hasn't pumped yet.
But I'm just going to stop, man.
I'm going to go on this huge rant.
I know myself.
Prometheus, what's up, bro?
Yo, what's up, man?
Yeah, I mean, I missed.
I just had to stop by someplace, but missed what we were kind of talking about from a topics perspective so i kind of i will
kind of just give my broader market spiel as we start to move forward um you know into
or towards the end of q1 here and time really flies man if you think about it like time
flies it feels like we were we had 10 10 yesterday. It feels like everybody got liquidated by Binance and BNB, you know, a few weeks ago. And I just kind of look at the setup that we're seeing right now on.
setup that we're seeing right now across the board. And it's just continued weakness by crypto,
man. It's just one of those things that needs a HIMSS prescription and you just can't deny it.
Right. And I don't want to be... What's HIMSS? So HIMSS is an online... I'd appreciate if you
don't advocate for HIMSS. It's a virulent anti-Semite, a big supporter of Hamas, who said
they would hire anyone arrested,
attacking Jews and going to jail, they could just send their resume in for a job.
He's an evil guy.
You could go to Roman, you could go to Friday, Friday, tonight, you know,
the erectile dysfunction online stuff.
But this is a guy who stalked one from 60.
The day he made that announcement,
down to 16, so that's delicious for me.
But he's evil.
You want to support Palestinians?
Have at it.
You know, they're victims of Hamas.
But just per evil, you're sick.
Yeah, I think, too,
publicly speaking out against the Jewish state is probably not the best for your own portfolio.
No, you can.
He was saying if you beat up a Jewish kid on campus, if you deny them access to a classroom,
and New York City's threshold for arresting you is very, very high.
But if you get arrested, send me a resume.
You got a job.
Yeah, we don't want to be spreading hate.
Yeah, spreading hate and violence in the world is, there's enough of it, and we don't need
to perpetuate any of that.
But I have a Hymn subscription for finasteride and minoxidil.
Sure, sure.
Guys, does it work? It's finasteride and minoxidil. Sure. Sure.
Does it work?
It actually, like, it's like a miracle happened on top of my head.
Why do you care?
Why do I care?
Jordan is very good looking.
He's got no hair.
If we're talking about proper ratios, David, it's very important that you have a stabilized hairline when it comes to, you know, attracting a mate. No, just remove it and
just walk on your wallets. That wallet covers, you know, a wallet adjusts for six inches of height.
You know a wallet adjusts for six inches of height.
A 6'2 versus 5'8 gets covered by 4X your salary.
Yeah, it adjusts for a lot of inches.
Oh, did you go there?
That's where you're going to him.
Go to Friday tonight.
See, David, but the thing is I'm what you call a pretty boy,
a good-looking guy regardless.
Are you looking for another pretty boy or a pretty girl?
I have a fiance, so we're...
So then you don't need to look better.
You should look less good.
No, I...
You'll give her more security.
I max out my aesthetics, right?
I max out...
No, you want her to be two or three units more than you
i reduce the waistline that's what it's all about it's all about the x frame yeah but not that not
the chemicals on your head all those others are good but see the blood saturation is so low from
the topical that you don't have to worry about it with that but if you know then you have to get the
other prescription to counteract the side effects so you're then taking two pills you don't need it at all she will love
you without the you'll save money on you'll save money on the barber no i know i know and the thing
is i want to enjoy it while i can and then once i get to oh it's cheating you're cheating nature
you're cheating nature i know You're a thiefy.
You're a cheaty.
Do you know what's the guy who used to be
an anchor? I'm a child of Aphrodite.
Aphrodite. Oh, very
lovingly. You know
what's his name? The guy who used to be
on CNBC
and his toupee didn't make it one day.
who was that?
Yeah, yeah.
He's a short guy.
Pretty smart.
He went to a fund.
He's not doing anything special.
Yeah, see, I won't be doing all that toupee garbage.
Like, when it's time to go, like, it's time to go,
and the whole thing just gets shit.
Well, it's one pay plus one pay.
Two pay.
Yep, yep.
It's just like if you're gluing.
Him's $15.89. Yeah, if you're gluing you know hides to the
top of your head i mean it's you know that other things you got to be worrying about you know the
futures exchanges used to trade hide there's a futures contract in the hide and hide in silk
those are things we use you know i should know that because we used to make shoes and we used to have an exchange here in Kansas City.
That was an agricultural exchange. They would definitely be doing hide. They would definitely be doing hide and silk.
Yeah, I need to know these things. X is acting up right now. So if the space like tanks, see you tomorrow.
Yeah, it's it. If you guys see,
if you try to refresh,
it just goes blank.
I'm trying to post and it just won't let me.
It was having issues when it brought me.
Maybe it doesn't like your content.
Maybe it doesn't like your content.
Huh?
Yeah, see, we started talking about
hymns and then we got blacklisted
from the CIA.
Yeah. Yeah, that was the issue but i mean from like a market perspective back back on topic here just for the listener's
sake i mean i i'm a patient gentleman right now i'm a i'm lying in wait i'm you know within the
reeds i'm walking and waiting in the high grasses just biding my time for opportunity, you know, from a long side perspective.
I took out a short position on Zcash earlier today.
You know, that thing to me, I'm just like I look at that from a structural perspective, similar to what XRP had just done.
You had a short covering or short squeeze rally to the upside, you know, and it just looks anemic, right?
I mean, just again, like we're seeing futures indices specifically, you know, relatively
flatlined and crypto just cannot sustain itself, you know, continually.
And until we start to see price really be able to buoy itself, I'm just going to continue
to remain in the camp that i
either want to be in cash or i want to be taking selective short positions that's really my approach
to the market especially from a crypto perspective um you know i like the long oil trade just from a
chart perspective uh are you sure are you sure yeah i Yeah. A very short term time frame or I mean, you know, I mean, I got Exxon, you know, in the middle. I picked up some Exxon and Chevron in the middle of January.
Well, that's not the oil trade. That's the oil equity trade. There's a little bit of beta to it, right? There's a little bit of geopolitical ties in there with Venezuela and the whole.
Well, that Chevron is Venezuela.
Bitcoin is.
Right.
Exxon's cut out of both of them.
Both Guyana and Venezuela sucked in.
Darren Woods goes suck it.
It's uninvestable.
Be American.
Help out.
And roar. I like those charts. I'm'm a technician i'm a technician david i like the chart you know but you know there's one thing i hope you get from me and other people when you do charts use bring
your eraser okay bring bring a ball to bring a ball to roll the charts over to see where they're curving.
Okay.
And David, to your point, I was vibe coding the past three days.
I don't even know what that means.
I was using Claude to build out indicators on TradingView.
That way I can pair assets against their historical volatility
and against their Parkinson-related volatility.
We have someone who started bringing
us the kurtosis charts what is the parkinson volatility man it's a more so historical
it's it's a much better way to measure volatility i'm new to understanding this according to who
boy if you so if you look at how historical vol is measured, right?
If it opens at 100K, right?
And let's say it goes up to 105 and then down to 96, but then closes at 100.
It doesn't actually calculate that intraday volatility.
Yeah, good, good, good.
Explain why good.
I want to know that there's that intraday volatility
you know I like closing prices alright
yeah I mean it's
you know it's kind of like apples and oranges
kind of thing you know
you're going to get a pretty good picture regardless
Sander Gerber
from Hudson Bay
who was a floor guy
went to Orton, a floor guy
boss a consulting group but he created a thing called the Gerber
statistic, which basically is like a micro Vega
where you're just stripping out some noise, like getting rid of some of the water
out of concentrated orange juice. Yeah, you're just smoothing it.
But you're trying to make it more chaotic with your
data set.
Well, I have the beautiful thing about my indicator, David,
is that I'm able to look at both.
I can look at one and then I can toggle to the other, right?
And they look damn near identical. Like there is minuscule difference,
really from like a higher timeframe perspective. So that's why
you want to start looking at skew as well
and the other more important
things but I mean
you have to distinguish
from policy. Trump is
pumping up oil. He's
doing it on purpose because
he's going to rug pull you because he's going
to get impeached if he doesn't win the midterm.
He's not going to get the midterm if he goes to war.
So if they got enough generals in Iran to say they'll take over
and let us get rid of that lunatic Ayatollah,
then it'll be a short-life thing.
But anyone who thinks this oil is staying up on supply demand,
and there's a guy on the internet this guy anas he's very very
good on the supply stuff and you know he's got the contact he's lebanese i think what he's got
the contacts i mean i i brought something up the other day i'm like because i was talking about the
asian contagion and how it swept through and like not even a whole second he's like reading inside of his
brain and he just starts spitting out facts about what opaque did and i i remember at the time
opaque cut back because i want to hold price and like five different relevant factors that
how would you know if you weren't like old enough and alive in 1997 and watching and then remembering
and he knows all these things what he doesn't these things. What he doesn't do very well
is he doesn't know about the demand
and he doesn't understand.
And he highlighted himself,
emerging markets are a ton of demand.
They're much more energy intensive than us.
And the emerging markets are going to collapse.
The dollar is about to fly.
It's going to kill EM.
And we have the SDRs,
the special rights at the IMF.
We're in charge.
And we can tell somebody,
you want some cash?
Cause a recession.
You know?
We made a deal with Pakistan.
We said,
if you join the Gaza Peace Board,
you're the largest Muslim country
with a nuclear bomb
or the only one with a nuclear bomb,
we get credibility, we get Indonesia
in there, we help them,
and then we try to make some peace in the
Middle East.
Pakistan's on an IMF drip,
Egypt, they're developing also.
Six billion
people have their currency on the low,
and people are like, oh, EM, Brazil
is up 15% year-to-date
versus us at one. Do you not understand
what's going on?
People are trying to get out of
NASDAQ as fast as possible,
but they have to park it in other
pieces of equity.
Are you bullish on the shekel?
I don't take an opinion.
I have some concerns.
I mean, I think that the NASDAQ's going to have a problem,
and that's going to be a problem for the shekel
because they get so much.
They just sold one of their companies, like, $30 billion
to one of the U.S. companies.
I forget which.
Wix.
Wix just crossed.
Carvana down 21.
Sweet.
Dude, Carvana is, it's going to be the craziest chart.
It's an accounting shenanigan.
Oh, absolutely.
It literally went up to 400 or some odd during COVID.
You know what's crazy, bro?
Down to chapter 11, back up to new highs,'s crazy bro down to chapter 11 back up to new highs and then back down
to chapter 11 will will made it off of carvana stock bro that's like he didn't buy any carvana
he did he he uh he bought some in may he was here in miami telling us to to buy carvana no you wanted
to buy it a three four five and ten when they didn't have the credit agreement and they went around the
creditors to Apollo and Apollo rolled over everybody and they got
life. But now it's a big problem. You know, with all of the people that
left the country and you have all these cars with negative equity and they just
keep on rolling it and then insurance is rolling over,
it's a big problem. It's a big problem.
It's a big problem.
And Trump is giving a discount to buy a new car now.
You know, you get a tax deduction on the interest.
It's cheaper to buy a new car than a used car after taxes.
So that was...
Yeah, but it's like a new car and then it's American made.
I mean, that's kind of like...
Yeah, but that was a short on Carvana on that minute.
They signed that bill, goodbye used cars.
They got all these used cars,
they're sitting on the lots,
it's called Rod on the Lot,
and, you know, Trump says,
I'm going to make new cars cheaper to help the unions.
How do you fight them?
That was stupid.
It was a mistake.
Anyway, what's much more important than all of this is,
is crypto is telling us a story.
Wabi, what story is Bitcoin telling you?
I would say probably new lows.
Wouldn't it have been better if people were listening to us above 115,
saying it had to...
I did an interview, I forget, with some young kid.
He asked if he could do it.
So I did it and explaining why.
This is in November.
Why Bitcoin has no...
It's going much lower. bitcoin is going to be like silver
it's going to be like gold peter schiff is going on vacation for 20 years those things are just
going to be rented as as paper paper sales industrial selling of volatility against bitcoin
silver and gold you know the most ridiculous thing?
No, I don't.
I see on the timeline.
I don't.
Is that people are calling for $300 silver.
Sure.
That is the most garbage take, in my opinion, I've ever heard in my life.
Silver gets these parabolic moves like once every 17 and a half years.
No, it's three times in 51 years, but it's actually once in 31 years when they tripled the
money supply, and then it was one more time when they tripled it again. And that was, you know,
211 and now. This isn't going to hold. We're going back to 30. Gold is going to 2k, and as volatility comes down, I would be getting bigger
in my short call position, writing just call spreads forever. Because you can't justify
silver at this price. You can substitute it. And then, you know, it's an industrial.
The world is slowing.
Interest rates are falling.
It's insane.
When you go parabolic, that's a liquidity failure.
You trap a lot of people.
The dealers back away, and now the dealers are back in force.
Silver volatility, 120 down to 70.
Yeah, it's already, the volatility on
silver has been absolutely collapsed.
The reason I
closed my Bitcoin short
weeks ago at 6 and change
on a Thursday,
that minus 15%
day on
Bitcoin, is because Bitcoin volatility went up 80% in a day.
How are you going to drive a price down
when the volatility goes up 80% in a day?
It broke out from its 50, it got up to 90.
So about, you got to settle that down.
You got to settle that down. You got to settle that down.
You can't have that amount of illiquidity.
I imagine people were leaning on it,
thinking that MicroStrategy will announce
they're going to start selling some coin.
So they want to front run that,
and they spike the vol.
But we're just working off that vol.
We have selling pressure every day.
Look at Solana.
Solana doesn't look so good.
You know, from a crypto participant perspective,
I think a lot of people are going to get caught off guard.
What do I mean by that?
What do you mean everybody's going to get caught off guard?
They all want a DCA on the way down.
They don't want a DCA out.
I use that generality as just kind of like
uh it's like baked into my verbiage at this point i shouldn't say everybody but what i mean it's
virtually everybody in crypto virtually everybody virtually and and the thing is is what we saw last
cycle a lot of people did well in nfts some people didn't do well but you kind of had this like dumb money right and
that's what solana on chain was this cycle and it's always bitcoin everything is dumb money
we had the money supply exploding now it's it's deflating but what i what i mean by that is
really unsophisticated investors like people who buy ibit what market dynamics are
people who have no idea about these intermarket relationships right and they go on on chain and
they can just buy 1 million market cap shitters you know and they can get a 10x in 24 hours they're
not getting those recycle that they're not getting those But what I'm getting to is that what I believe is in the next bull market period for Bitcoin specifically.
Please don't even use those two words together.
It's bad.
I'm not kidding.
It's not fair.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
And so what I think a lot of people are going to get trapped into from a mentality perspective and they're going to paint themselves into a corner,
is that the on-chain, you know, behavior is going to come back in a big way if we do see a wealth effect occurring or that we see majors appreciating in price. How is that even possible? Why would
you even articulate that? Where are you going to get that from? Tell me, where's the money going
to come from? Everything is deflating. I'm not saying it has to happen. No, no, no, no, but it's not like it happened. How could it even happen?
Forget should. How could it even happen? We are losing equity
everywhere. We're losing equity in a Microsoft. We're losing equity.
And a point that I was trying to make
and I made to Wabi and to our private group chat was that
imagine, you know, that or the idea that
and the entitlement and with people that are in crypto, specifically in traders and crypto is the
idea that we have to have a bull market once every, you know, three years, roughly, right.
And the idea that from a crypto retail participant that they don't get that is because their sense of entitlement
would rock so many people's worlds imagine if bitcoin does not see another bull market until
2032 right but but you're a part of that but you're a part of that because what you're doing
is you're not you're barely acknowledging a 50 drawdown in less than four months.
Okay. And... David, I was short that. I know that. No, no. I know that you were short and you were right.
But now you're articulating it may be low enough and you're using
the framing... No, no, no, no.
No, no, no. David, I do not think, one, it's low enough.
And two, I don't want to be a buyer here but you
should lead every time you use the word bitcoin and bull in the sentence you should lead it with
i continue to be a better seller than a buyer i don't see any support i led that with the beginning
i know but but you just said okay okay i know i I know, I know. I know, I know.
And I'm just saying like from a perspective standpoint, right?
The entitlement in the space.
If we do see appreciation in prices, right?
Whether that, and I'm not saying-
They don't need it to be bullish.
I'm not saying, and all I'm saying is that
from last cycle perspective, people did well on NFTs.
NFTs were the hot crazed commodity that everybody wanted.
And so going into this cycle, what did people do?
They went in thinking the NFTs were going to be the same thing, but they're the most
illiquid, anemic garbage this cycle, right?
Because you Ponzi somebody once, you can't Ponzi them again with the same tactic or trick.
And I believe that if majors appreciate in price, and I'm not saying new highs, I'm not saying it's a full blown raging bull market that people will go back on chain, but it will be in reflection similar to what we saw in NFTs this cycle.
But later down the road for on chain and reflection to where we'll be anemic, it will be, you know, a liquid garbage and that people are going to get rinsed in positions
and they're going to be left bag holding and they're not going to see the quote-unquote gains
that they want to see one of the ways you better would be a good way to frame it is the nasdaq was
accelerating higher versus the s&p it was doing well the fed was cutting adding money and so you you had nasdaq you could short to fund nfts you could buy it as a higher
beta uh tech and so you weren't wasting money on on on buying tech you were you were busy buying
alts and alts of alts we don't have the bull structure of liquidity expansion as evident by the blow-off
top in gold and silver and software. And so we're in a raging bear market in many things.
We're seeing money destruction across countless asset classes. So if you have a bull market and
everything,
you can use anything as a source of funds
to buy something moving faster.
But we're in a down escalator as clear as can be.
We have yields melting down to new lows.
We have inflation at 2.4%.
And the psychotic freaks of nature on the Federal Reserve
that hate Americans with a heat of a thousand suns
are talking about raising rates.
When Biden was president, we had 9.4% inflation, transitory.
Trump gets it to 2.4 in 12 months
with policies that are massively deflationary
because tariffs are deflationary.
They want to talk about raising rates. They're very disturbed
people. But look at the dollar. The dollar is the death of liquidity. The dollar is the barometer,
the measurement. It's the truth and the light about the state of supply and demand. Nobody
wants to borrow, and nobody wants to short a dollar. And when you get this dollar a little higher, you then overtake 99, which is a 50-year trend line.
I don't care if they cut or they don't cut.
I don't care if they hike.
The rest of the world is a steaming garbage pile.
There's no liquidity.
It's deteriorating.
And you've got Bitcoin just offered lower every day that Michael
Saylor can't pump out some of his worthless paper. Because what happens is he sells his preferreds
and the person just where they're about to take delivery of the preferred shorts the cash.
104 was more than down $80.
They're not going to hold $100.
They're not going to hold $75.
They're not going to hold $50.
They're going to go to a discount of MNAV.
The whole thing is leaking money at a historic rate because there's no money holding the boys together.
And when people just have a mindset framing of,
well, you know, look for the bull.
How about saying we're currently, as you were negative,
we're currently in the greatest deflationary crypto episode ever.
That last move from $12,627.20 was all air.
It's going to go away,
and then you could find out where it's worth.
But it's not difficult to notice
that the yields did not go up to 6% on the 10-year.
They didn't go up to 6% on the bond.
We're at 401 yesterday,
and that's without a cut to help. The system is unwinding,
we're deleveraging and low beta stocks going up is a measurement of deleveraging. Either watching
them go up more than tech or watching tech roll over and catching down over a longer term time frame of
massive outperformance. But we're challenging the lowest level in NASDAQ versus the S&P
going back to the 2020 September quarter.
quarter. Five quarters later, on December of 21, we're like 2% away from this innovation
compression. And we're only 8.5%, 9% away from surrendering all of the nasdaq performance of the s&p going back 26 years
we are going to have the greatest decline in innovation equities and that leads to
innovation deflation and it leads to price deflation, and it leads to price deflation. There is so much money trapped in treasuries,
excuse me, in gold, in silver, in precious metals,
in crypto, in FAANG.
That money's coming out.
It's coming out.
Where's it going to go?
Mortgages, low beta, and stocks.
And bonds.
And the long bonds.
I just, I wish people would have the framing
from the beginning,
at least, you know, once you got below the,
closed this year below last year's low,
I mean, last year's open,
then every rally should be a sale.
And until that stops working,
why do you keep doing that?
It's sad for me.
We've lost $2 trillion.
That's gone forever.
Generations.
$2 trillion of today's dollars. Not the fake $. Generations. Two trillion of today's
dollars. Not the fake
ten million that's going to happen when
instead of a quadrillion dollars,
we have a hundred quadrillion dollars.
I mean, ten million, you know,
a hundred thousand that could buy you
a fifth of a house, a half
a small house.
And people are just
holding it into impoverishment in chapter 11. It's so sad.
You know, I've been screaming, yelling, trying to get all over the internet, trying to get people
to listen. Crypto is a microscopic boil on the ass of a donkey in a region that nobody knows.
We have a quadrillion dollars of assets, and Bitcoin went from less than half a trillion,
and they spent a few minutes at 10x that.
We don't have the monetary pressure.
We don't have the support.
The bear tails are showing up in a lot of things.
If you want movement, look for movement. It's not always in an up direction.
You have to work hard to find what's working. It's not that complicated. Wabi sent you at
Sandisk at the final stages of that blow off top. You think it's really going to
last in semis? Of course not. How's it going to last when software is melting down? How's it going
to last when banks can't handle a flatter curve and the both of them are going to be leaning all
over the S&P 500? And the money coming out of there is going to come out so fast,
it's going to want to go into mortgages.
So when I say, watch mortgage yields and watch them pull down crypto,
they think I've got a third eye.
But it's the same thing.
It's a volatility compression.
Volatility of risk assets is coming down across the board because we printed too much money and
it's turning on its masters and that m2 is fun when you're accelerating its growth and they run
over shorts well you know what the shorts are having a good time shorting call skew they're
having a very good time and they're stronger than you or I.
Watch what's happening.
It's a problem.
It's a big problem.
And it's an enormous opportunity to make money where money is allowing the money to be made.
Not telling you where we...
Don't tell the market where to make you money.
You listen to what the market's telling you is asymmetric.
Do you see this two-year yield at a three-year low? Flip it upside down. The two-year treasury's
at a three-year high. People borrowed that like drunken sailors to buy FANG. Notice how that's
going up and FANG isn't. It's unwinding leverage because we don't have enough equity to support
the leverage. We're getting more and more
leverage and it's going to be very, very bad. If all your mindset is things are going up whilst
everything is going down, every single thing is going down, including yields. You've got one
little pishikaka yield that has $18 billion in free trades during the year,
the bond.
And that's not going to hold up.
You've got curves all across the world, melting, finally triggering rate cuts in the UK.
Of course, it's going to trigger rate cuts in Europe.
And that's going to drive that dollar right up.
that's going to drive that dollar right up and that's going to kill cash flow and tech companies
And that's going to kill cash flow.
and that whole ecosystem will manifest itself in a $425 micron, $245 and then $52. These things
are real, they're not durable. We've gone from infinite liquidity to liquidity death and you
can ignore these things all you want.
It's not going to allow you to make money when you're buying things as prices fall.
You cannot average your way into a profit if the price doesn't have a lift.
And all we have are people exiting and selling. And you're just, you're whale exit, if you're not a seller.
Do I know the mechanics of Bitcoin? I couldn't learn what you guys forgot in many cases.
I know prices, I know volatility, I know skew, I know kurtosis, and I got rates right, and I got Bitcoin right, being short the beginning of last year,
covering April 7th at the exact day of the low,
within hours of the low.
I sold the high after the peak in September 18th
of Bitcoin against its own volatility before the crash.
And I closed out.
I didn't get long because I didn't
think there was any kind of bounce coming. Two weeks ago, Thursday, around six-ish, around 63,
65. The price is screaming at you. Wake up and look and listen. Don't listen to me.
Listen to the market.
It's always right.
There's a quadrillion dollars.
It doesn't believe in earnings.
It doesn't believe in stories.
It doesn't believe in garbage.
It believes in running over the enemies of the people buying a position.
We drink each other's, we drink our enemies' tears.
What I like drinking, I get DMs all the time from people
who tell me these stories of health and repair and family security that has been caused by
breaking away from the brainwashing of financial paid media. And they're able to look at price again
and they feel the hope that they can bring their family
to an equilibrium state from expenses, trauma, other things.
Watch the price.
Don't watch me.
Watch the price, and don't be brainwashed or biased.
We are now five months, the fifth month of a meltdown,
and the best that Bitcoin has is $ grand, three grand from down 50.
Where's the money coming from when you can't even throw it into Microsoft?
You can't even justify shorting a two-year. What's the cost if you're wrong?
But David, they're going to tell you that the rotation from gold
and silver is going to come into Bitcoin. It left Bitcoin to go into gold and silver.
Now it's going somewhere else. You have industrial volatility selling. Sailor was the only guy
selling volatility. That's why his company was pumped, because they were making monopolistic profits selling volatility. And now you have IBIT, B-I-T-K, W-N-T-R.
Now, I understand that, what's his name?
Larry Fink is going to be doing a Bitcoin plus a short volatility.
So that will outperform and grab all the assets from IBIT.
And that'll flood, flood volatility.
And it'll break it down.
Take it into the 20s.
Who the hell wants to trade a Bitcoin with a 1.5% expected daily return?
They're going to short that volatility into the ground.
One of these days it's going to come back. That day could be the 2040s, the 2050s. Let's make
money now. Five Below is now the highest monthly close ever. It benefited from Trump's gasoline policy.
It's up 200%.
Of the Dollar General, of the Dollar Tree,
and the five below,
this is the only one out of the S&P 500, I think.
So it was going to go up.
Eventually, you could get in.
There are things going up a lot. And there are things that just, when you see Solana melting down, XRP weakening along the candle, and Ethereum
not doing well, how do you waste your capital with a long only view?
How are you not maybe selling the volatility
to make sure you've got extra cash coming in?
Kind of like a rebate or a fund
to get a short on your H,
whatever that is,
that platform with all the leverage.
Hyperliquid.
Hyperliquid.
Folks, it takes a lot to be able to not see everything going down.
David, I talked about Home Depot last Monday.
That's another name that's up like 10 plus percent year to date.
Where is it going to be?
By the way, did you see the refi numbers today?
Very nice.
Because you have the lowest mortgage rate.
And then you have the added advantage
of you got all these people
fixing up after the storm.
Where are you going to go?
Lowe's and Home Depot.
So they had a little
there's nothing more American sometimes
than going to
Costco and then
going to Home Depot all in the
same day
well that's where the money's going
on any one day something could be down
when you go up massively
something could be down
I mean Costco is up almost 20% year-to-date as well.
Because people were shorting Costco
because it was more expensive than Walmart
until they got to the same price,
and people said, but they're not the same company.
Costco grows faster.
And they said, whoopsie,
and they took it all the way back up to 104,
3% from an all-time high monthly close.
I was on Mario yesterday morning.
And David Toil, who I like a great deal,
he's very fair-minded.
He's like you.
He's very fair-minded.
It lets people say whatever they want
when he believes they think it's true.
And he said, you know,
is it Walmart expensive at 25 times next year's earnings?
I said, do you want to get your spaghetti at Walmart
or spaghetti at spaghetti righetti
that trades at infinity multiple?
The fact is, if interest rates are going down
to 2% or lower,
why can't you have 100 multiple on Walmart?
It's not a cyclical,
like these tech stocks that are cyclical.
You trade a cyclical
like Apple at 40 times
earnings and they'll say it's not a
cyclical. It is a cyclical.
You blow up the emerging markets, they're going to
have no revenues.
Okay?
You just have
to see what's
working.
It doesn't matter.
If you think the multiples matter
in a stock that's going up
with a quadrillion dollars of money out there,
I was Max Long posted, pin tweet,
October 28, 2022.
NVIDIA is in free fall.
But the Fed slowed the rate of hikes from 25 on March 17,
50 on May 5, 75 on June something or other.
And then on July 28, they repeated the 75.
That's it.
It's only a matter of time, a couple months.
It was 91 days later.
And you got a three-year bottom.
You got, I called it the greatest rally in 15 years to last several years.
192% in 20 and a half months.
For FAANG, what happens if you bought some of the lower tier ones that went up faster?
Liquidity is evaporating in front of your eyes.
Listen with your eyes.
You can't not see it without massive hopium, Adderall, and all kinds of other crazy stuff.
You can't not see it.
It takes a lot of hopium to think, oh, yeah, this is a good DCA opportunity.
How about when it closes below 63?
How about below 59 and 49?
Oh, don't worry.
Down 80 is the real good ad.
Why not buy things that are going up?
We even have government bonds going up.
We even have the dollar finally going up a little.
Why not get things that are going up?
Why do you always have to buy things on the way down?
Please explain.
The rearview mirror is yesterday's news
and I use it to cover
the cat's litter bin
I actually don't have a cat
I'm just being euphemistic
we have prices expressing themselves
and we have other prices expressing themselves
can't you flow some money
for some losers
to some winners?
Are you that stupid?
Go on FanDuel. Go on
any of these
fantasy sports leagues.
You're always trading
your losers for a winner.
Or at least someone who's
recovering from an injury.
You don't say, give me some more losers, they're cheaper.
You don't do that.
Why do you do it with real money, not fake money?
It's screaming at you louder than I am.
I can't say anything else.
I can tell you to follow me. I can tell you to follow me.
I can tell you to study.
Wabi gave you permission to exit the increasingly,
what is that?
There was a movie called
The Increasingly Shrinking World of Mr. Peebles or something.
You have a $4.28 trillion market. shrinking world of Mr. Peebles or something.
You have a $4.28 trillion market.
You felt big and strong.
The world was your oyster. And then gravity and paper coin hit you in the ass.
It wasn't a ghost.
It was paper traders.
Listen to them.
Who's got the strength to lift this Bitcoin? Who's got the strength to lift this Bitcoin?
Who's got the strength to lift this Solana?
XRP is in its god candle.
Where's the money going to come from
if they're not comfortable buying a Microsoft or an Amazon,
which look like dreck one over?
It's 6%, 7% from its peak of 2020.
The entire market has only outperformed the S&P, the NASDAQ,
by a small amount since 2000.
And believe me, I will be screaming from the rooftops
when we took out the July 14th expansion,
which is NDX, denominated by SPX,
do a chart, do an RSI, do a historic volatility,
do it in different time frames.
See money flow.
Innovation up, innovation down.
October 12th, 1980, the NASDAQ was only 55% of the price of the S&P.
160 to like 300, something like that.
And NASDAQ outperformed by six times to 3.3 in 491 weeks.
And then 130 weeks later, it's down 70%.
You went from 0.55 to 3.3, down to 1,
and now we're only at Pishikaka, 3.6.
We went up six times, now we're up 3.8.
Excuse me, 3.6?
In 23 years?
Is it 23 years?
It's 24 years.
Look what's working.
Look what's working. Please, I beg you.
Look what's working.
Make more money.
Lend it to your relatives.
Spend more time with your kids.
Give some charity. Help the elderly
and the blind, but do not
give money to your counterparty
because you're busy looking at the good old days
and becoming whale exit.
Half of these bots, half of these profiles
are automated for whale exit,
so there's a price for exit.
It's not real.
Don't buy into it.
There are plenty of things Wabi talked about.
He'll talk about where things are going in the UP direction.
Not in the downtown Julie Brown.
You make money when you're long if it goes up.
You make money when it goes down if you're short.
But too many of you are too long for too long,
like Jeff Curry
from Goldman who got blown out
when he said that publicly
he said I've been
I've never been so long
I've never been so wrong for so long
and still believe my views
and he was gone that Monday
carted out of Goldman Sachs
shows up at Carlisle
still a clown
still saying super cycle commodities.
Yes, not now though, later.
He's now.
We're going to go downtown, Julie Brown,
on copper and gold and silver and crypto and NASDAQ.
And for now, we're going to go long staples, healthcare, utilities, homebuilders, what Wabi said.
The guy put you at the advent of investigating SanDisk and it reamed its adversaries.
You could have had a couple of mugs full of their tears.
And I guarantee you, not 1% of you listened to him.
Why are you coming?
He didn't tell you to do it.
He said, inspect, investigate, speak to your advisors.
It was a massacre show.
South Korea's up 30% on hardware.
How many of you did?
Oh, no, no, I got a hodl.
I got to keep my alts that are going nowhere but south. Now it gives you a Home Depot as interest rates, despite Rubini, Fink, Diamond,
Collab, Bill Gross, all of them telling you higher rates. I'm telling you, rates are going to zero without a recession.
And that's what they've been doing.
So everyone's licking their wounds.
You're hearing what's going on.
And you're busy looking at your losses because your feet are stuck in concrete.
This guy doesn't try to send you
the wrong direction. He doesn't tell you what to do. He tells you where to look and investigate.
How about some up prices instead of some down prices? And that's what I have to say for now.
That was good, man. That was good. Feather, what's up, man? I see you have your hand up.
Feather, 15.
Sorry, I thought you said Simon. I was like, I don't see a Simon on stage.
Yeah, thanks for bringing me up.
David, curious to hear what your...
I've heard you say before that you think, you know, knock a couple zeros off Bitcoin,
but you still are bullish on Bitcoin long term. Is that still your thought process? I cannot hear anyone.
I don't know if anyone is talking.
Oh, sorry.
I think I was on mute.
Did you hear anything I said?
Not a word.
Okay.
So my general frame is after its hibernation, like after gold and silver,
where people are just selling the volatility, smothering it,
and then it has an excitation, I think Bitcoin is going to be very, very similar.
And then it has an excitation.
I think Bitcoin is going to be very, very similar.
And when it does go to a million or 10 million,
we now have a quadrillion dollars of assets in the world.
What if we have 100 quadrillion?
Will that 10 million be worth more than 100 grand?
And how many people are going to stick around
for that long period of time?
My view is buy something going up,
reduce something's going down until you have so little you can start shorting it.
And then in the cycle, if and when Bitcoin comes back from a much, much lower level,
you'll have much, much, much more money to buy many, many, many more coins.
Amazon fell 95%, Apple 82 in the dot-com era, but Sun and Nortel and Lucid fell 100%.
What is the crime if you migrate some losing money to some winning money and come back a week later
and say, hey, that was nice, let me repeat it. And if you come back two weeks later and it did
nicer more and faster, raise the rate of transmission. But there's a quadrillion dollars
looking to do what it wants to do, and it doesn't have to do what it used to do.
do what it wants to do, and it doesn't have to do what it used to do. It doesn't matter what's
the longer-term trend. That's just saying, oh, I can hodle long enough, I can hold my breath.
How about making money today with something that works that should work? I'm not a big fan of
energy because I think it's up on a policy spoof. The president says he wants lower energy prices.
With that, I go in.
Do I have some Chevron because of Venezuela,
and they're in there,
and that oil is much more attractive than Canadian tar sand?
It's much, much cheaper and energy efficient to extract.
It's got a high weight.
Very good stuff. We need it.
And America cares about making sure they do well.
But this idea that, well, I think it could go up eventually, we don't know what the money's
going to be worth by then. But it's not going to be one year in my book or two or five.
Silver hibernated for 31 years. Most recently, it was 15. And that's in the midst
of tripling the money supply in each of those periods. The big move in silver came after the
2008, 897 billion up to the two point something trillion.
$897 billion up to the 2 point something trillion.
People don't want that spending.
And AI is very potent.
And it's going to collect a hell of a lot of taxes.
So I don't want people to think just because there's a strong argument to make
that Bitcoin adds a couple of decimals,
two, three, four, maybe five,
in what could be 30 years.
We're not Riff and Winkle.
Let's make as much money as we can
with as little risk as we can,
as opposed to just, oh, I might as well
DCA, get myself
really cheap average cost
and then, you know,
go into one of these suspended animation
machines and come back when it's worth
something.
I'd rather not waste it.
Sorry.
So you've reduced all your Bitcoin exposure at this point.
You are only short?
Levered.
Now, right now I'm flat.
I got flat around 63K, around 6 o'clock in a post, maybe 653,
saying we had a 10% down in Bitcoin,
and when it moved from 10% to 15% down,
volatility rose 80%.
Does that sound normal to you?
Volatility rising 80% in a day,
does that sound healthy?
So I'm not playing that game.
I'm at a big firm. I'm doing a big, I got a big balance sheet.
I said, if I were at a firm at this time, and I had a big balance sheet, I'd be shorting the
hell out of that volatility. There's no way it's staying up. Not with the way tech is doing.
Not with the way tech is doing.
Not with the way the alts are doing.
Not with the way ETH, XRP, and Solon are doing.
No way.
Not with a 50% decline in the space.
But I'm not that.
So I'm taking my time.
getting ready for lower of all than shorting higher lows.
Getting ready for lower of all than shorting higher lows.
It's just, there are things that are going up massively.
Staples, healthcare, utilities, some in particular.
Amgen got an upgrade today, up 5%.
I mean, you love 5% daily moves.
You're not seeing them in these things.
You're seeing them in other things, but you're not seeing them at all because you're not
looking.
There are a lot of prices out there, and even big prices, not just prices, big prices.
Buy winners, sell losers.
I will say that every single time I'm on the show. That never makes sense.
It is true I like to buy on the way down,
but if something going down slows its rate of descent
at an accelerating deceleration,
that to me says people are selling the puts,
they're getting ready to take positions.
They'll sell those puts into suppression.
We saw Bitcoin volatility collapse.
We saw its range go from 105 to 115 over a quarter.
That is its lowest ever.
And then, oh my God, the Great Prince are going to steal that shuffleboard for young people.
That was a great shot.
Anyway, you've got to watch these prices.
You've got to watch all these prices.
There's a quadrillion dollars.
It's such a gift that these idiots printed a quadrillion.
You just have to watch what's ever working, and it will work for a while, because there's so much
money, and there's not enough stuff to buy. So stop buying what worked before and isn't working
now. If it was working now, that's fine, but it is not. just because you could pump an alt from 1 to 10 or 1 to 100
that's not happening anymore because bitcoin
i can't believe those they they killed it they killed it they killed us
they killed us
we had it
anyway
does that make sense
so okay but here's my thing
I don't see a world if bitcoin
goes below
I'm sorry I just hear but
and if these are crazy
crazy words coming out of something that
nothing you say afterwards would change my view of what you're about to say.
You have a bullish bias.
You're saying that if Bitcoin's bad, everything's bad.
And that's wrong.
Because Bitcoin's melting and other things are going up.
You're just so brainwashed, you're not looking.
And you're very
nice, and I don't want to be coming off as mean. But the first two words out of your mouth said,
I'm not hearing you. I'm going to ride or die with Bitcoin, because nothing's going up when
Bitcoin goes down. And Bitcoin is such a small flea on the ass of a donkey on a corner of the universe.
It doesn't matter.
It just was an absorber of super liquidity explosion.
Okay, okay, okay.
But I hear what you're saying.
I hear what you're saying.
But.
But.
But.
Okay, so if it does, if it goes below, you know, 10,000 even, like if it goes below the, you know, the previous cycle.
10,000 is a fait accompli because we're getting all those coins off of the balance sheet of strategy.
Okay, so what happens to the mining infrastructure?
I mean, that'll really cripple.
I have no idea.
You'll have to speak to someone that knows about that.
Mining only provides a small amount of coin.
Shutting down all mining coin supply is benign.
But mining is what provides the security for Bitcoin.
So then it fails.
I don't know.
Yeah.
I mean, that's what I'm saying.
If it drops as low as you're saying, I think it fails.
I don't think it fails.
I think it's crazy.
I think they'll find a way to make it not fail.
They'll have a vote.
They can change the rules.
What they can't do is they can't stop virtual sellers of coin
from stopping to do that
because they're making so much money doing it.
But again, you're only making a case for it going down further faster.
I don't want to make a case for that. I want to make a case for there are things that going up,
you can ask Wabi for more things, maybe his glasses are cleaner than yours, maybe he's got
some binoculars, he could look over into equity.
He could look over into the bond market. And they'll say, I've seen this go up. Go check.
Do you clean your glasses? Does that look like it's going up? The charts work on stocks,
on bonds, on sectors, just as well as crypto. They just happen to be melting in crypto.
And there's just hope that it, you know, what,
it's so bad that it can't get that bad? How about a higher low for once? We know Michael Saylor breached every protocol of every serious investor in the history of markets. Don't let people know
your position. They'll come for it. And when MicroStrategy, which was at 104 and was down
today, is below 100 and then below 50, and then it's trading at, what, 5 billion, 8 billion,
people will come for it. They will come for it, and they will pressure it.
and they will drive it to a discount to MNAP,
And they will drive it to a discount to MNAP, and then people say, you know what,
and then people say, you know what, let's really push it.
Let's drive it, cause him to be separated.
Let's say he's got to do a buyback program.
You short it, you pair it with a coin.
Remember, if you want to be long bonds,
and long SOFR, and long two-year and five-year,
you're going to want to
be short oil, paper,
paper oil, and you're going
to want to make sure paper oil is down, and
goes down, that affects CPI,
and causes the Fed to cut,
and then your bond's green.
You've got to watch out what else is
going on.
With Bitcoin, you short it, you know,
you short coin with it.
Because if you short that enough,
participants will short coin and buy that.
So I'm just saying, beyond the narratives,
there is a thing called price.
Some prices are going up, some prices are going down, and now a lot of prices are going down.
And the worst part is, people are being tricked a year later by Trump's Liberation Day,
which anybody who knew anything in volatility said, I'm out of here.
He's going to do something wackadoodle.
So you drove those tech prices way down.
So these stocks that are sitting at 10 months lows
will be one-year lows as soon as we wipe away the data
from that April 7th, which was the day I covered.
But all I'm saying is things are melting down in dollar volumes that are really big.
I don't know where the money's going to come to stop that.
You could buy a Microsoft trading at 20-some odd times earnings, a Meta.
You could buy those.
I think they're all natural shorts.
But versus crypto going down faster?
My view is I like Staples Healthcare Utilities and bonds.
That's it.
But, you know, talking about problems,
a lot of problems can be fixed.
But there's a quadrillion dollars.
And the market wants to short Bitcoin right now, not buy it.
You can't not see that.
Do you agree with that?
No, I do agree with that.
So let's let it work itself.
