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Market Talk: CRYPTO READY FOR AN INSANE MOVE!? IWM HITS NEW ATH!?
Recorded: Dec. 4, 2025 Duration: 1:52:40Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. You Thank you. The three four. I'm just one. I'm just one.
I'm just one.
Bring it on.
The most dangerous way.
Sorry.
I'm not.
It's.
It's.
It's.
I'm not.
I'm not. I'm a fake.
I'm a fake.
I'm a fake.
I'm a fake.
I'm a fake.
I'm a fake.
I'm a fake.
I'm a fake.
I'm a fake.
I'm a fake.
I'm a fake. I'm a fake. me
it's up
thank you Oh, my God. Oh I Thank you. I Yeah. I'm so sorry. I'm so sorry. I'm so sorry. I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry.
I'm so sorry. I'm so sorry.ああああああああんん
Hey Yeah. Stop. Stop. Stop. Stop.
Stop.
Stop.
hey what's going on guys hopefully you can all hear me welcome back to market talk brought to
you by b my name's wabi uh feel free to leave some comments guys i uh really want to know if
spaces fixed uh the mishap that we had yesterday um i know for sure a lot of you did listen to the
replay we had like over 3 000 replays so that's kind of like our usual number on a slow day so
i know for sure some of you guys are catching the replays and all that good stuff but hopefully you
guys can uh hear me perfectly while i give the intro and all that stuff. And as you guys see from today's title,
I am quite excited for what I'm seeing in the market.
We have the IWM hitting a new all-time high.
Although over the last year,
it's just kind of been these small marginal all-time highs.
Like it hits an all-time high by like two, three points,
gaps down, does nothing for a bit,
and then gaps back up, hits another all-time high by like a point or so.
But hopefully this is the move that Max and myself, we were discussing this yesterday, and Max went at length.
And what that means when the IWM actually does go far out into price discovery.
I also see Prometheus in the audience.
I'll go ahead and send them invites to speak.
I'll actually send Max co-host.
I sent you a co-host, Max.
But I'm really excited, man.
There's more money to be made on the long side.
Crypto's not really doing much today, with the exception of a few on-chain alts,
things like VC, Salmon, Umbra, things frombra things from metadow really and those are on solana
um there's always going to be like those few select all coins on chain that are always going
to have spritz about performance for a short period of time while like the broader market
doesn't really do much perhaps it is time to go back on chain and do some gem hunting that is primarily where i get my
edge right now i'm not necessarily focused on timing exact bottoms it's more so or less waiting
for on chain to get fully risk on and for there to be some actual volume rather than a few whale
wallets uh injecting a few tickers that isers. That is where I personally get my edge.
And if you guys remember coming out of that bottom in April,
it really wasn't until like late April-ish, early May,
where we started to see some massive runners.
That's when Kida truly started its parabolic run.
That's when we saw things like
launch coin going from like five mil to almost 400 mil on solana within like a week and a half
so these things often do take some time but i i do like the price action that i'm seeing for a select
few tick tickers on chain i'd rather just i'd rather honestly just wait to see if uh some new tickers
come out and uh see if if the market wants to bid new risk and i know there's a saying right like
oh there's so many there's so many tickers out there we don't need any new tickers we have the
tickers that that we need right now but i mean that was set in, that was set in 2021. That was set in 2023, even 2024. And look at what
happened this year in 2025. You had tickers like Avantis, Aster, and Kida going to billions.
And the year prior to that, in 2024, it was primarily a meme coin cycle up until that last
quarter after the election where you had a bunch of AI tickers going crazy.
So the market does like to shock people.
And hopefully this trend, at least locally, continues.
And we also have the NASDAQ composite.
That's what I look at, not necessarily the Qs.
I look at the NASDAQ composite.
That's also not too far away from hitting an all-time high.
And, you know, when people want to talk about the Christmas rally,
when is it coming and all that stuff for crypto?
I think what we need next is honestly the NASDAQ.
We have the IWM.
I think the next slice of the pie for a Santa rally would be the NASDAQ composite.
I know in late 21, we had crypto topping out in November, and I believe the indices actually
did make another all-time high the month after in mid-December.
And crypto wasn't really doing much, but the environment is a bit different.
If you guys remember about four years ago during this time, the Fed did announce that they were going to stop QE and they were going to come out of a zero interest rate policy environment, which is called ZERP.
We discussed that quite a bit on the show.
Maybe that environment comes back in like three years or something like that.
But it does take a while for that sort of stuff to come back. QE and ZERP is honestly an anomaly, and you would need some form of catastrophe to happen,
but some exciting stuff in the market after basically nothing but CHOP and on-chain getting decimated.
I would like to see majors creep up here.
I'd like to see ETH get above yesterday's local high.
I believe we hit like 3,200 and change.
I'd like to see BTC rip up to at least like, honestly, at least to like 103K, well over
100,000 just to keep up that correlation that it has with the indices.
But look, I got Max up here.
I'm not sure if sure prometheus is speaker it says that he's speaker but uh i'm not able to see his mic hello hello yeah yeah what's up man
what's going on um we also had oracle having some nice uh some nice price action as well that that
that's a ticker that like i don't really see many people speak about but hey man if if if we're about to get fully risk on and on chain that I know people like for me this are going to absolutely kill it. on Vantus on Acer before they blew up and also called out Kida tickers KTA on base when it had
an FDV sub 20. So yeah, pretty sure it was sub 20 mil in early March of this year. Now, many people
in this market, they're often heroes of only like, they're only known by like one or two tickers. But
when you have someone like
prometheus that's a savant on chain and has called multiple tickers that have reached blue sky
territory and by blue sky i'm talking about they go into unicorn status things that go to things
that go to billions that is very very very rare right and the on-chain environment at that time was honestly quite
difficult. In March, markets were imploding, but he found KTA. And in late September,
mid-September, whenever it was that Acer came out, I believe it was, I think it was like
September 18th, 20th, somewhere along those lines um things started to take a turn to
the downside everything that was trending things like useless and troll all that stuff on solana
was going into a bit of a downturn but then you found these things early as long as well with the
because bitcoin discord and uh it was a nice trade for what it was it was about a two-week trade
three-week trade um all of ct was
talking about it and uh if they come back they come back happy days right um something interesting
as well at that i totally forgot to mention on spaces yesterday but we have uh cz's wife, T.E.A. I don't know how to pronounce her name, but basically she was at a conference.
And I believe now she's head of product on Binance.
And she started showing some charts and graphs.
And she flat out said that Binance believes that the bull market is going to continue in Q1 of next year, and they expect
prices to go to the upside.
The only thing is, is that like that entity, right, Binance, is very well known to have
caused the liquidation event that we had on 1010.
And as an exchange, whether you're a centralized exchange or whether you're a dex
or whether you have a product that makes money on fees they're going to make money on fees the
upside and the downside all they care about is volume volume volume that is the number one thing
that exchanges care about volume so we'll see man we'll see's, it's, I think they're one of the only platforms that have such
an audience size that are flat out saying that the four year cycle, um, is dead, uh, which I
believe is so, um, even if I'm a bit cautious, right? Cause again, I'm, I'm an individual that
likes to primarily just trade on-chain.
I still believe that within the next year, I think majors hit an all-time high.
And I consider Hyperliquid an all-time high for what it's worth.
I'm way more bullish on Hyperliquid than I am on something on Solana.
The supply that Solana has overhead is honestly insane, especially when on-chain gets crazy. Pump Fund makes all that money and they dump all their soul to pump their own tokens.
And it is what it is, man. But look, I got Max. I got Uncle GC here. I got Prometheus as well.
Guys, if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space, I want to thank you all so much for
tuning into Market Talk today, whether you're listening live right now love to the space. I want to thank you all so much for tuning into Market Talk
today, whether you're listening live right now or to the recording. As you guys know, we kind of
switched things up a bit as far as the time that we go live here. Usually, we've been going live
over the past few years between 4.30 p.m. EST to 4.45 p.m est but uh the the team reached out and they're like hey wabi
want to join you on spaces you can host a space a little bit earlier maybe an hour earlier we can
join you we can cook up for the audience and i'm like all right let's do it so um as i said on
yesterday's space and the space before we are going to be hosting market talk now and moving
forward at 3 30 p.m est so i want to thank you all so much for tuning in we're going to go ahead
and get cooking for you guys spaces are recording right now so i'm going to do the usual rotation
and this is a rotation that i did back in the day in 2023 i usually pass it on over to max we set the tone and
then we get cooking so max what's going on brother we got the nasdaq not too far from all-time high
we have uh the iwm hitting price discovery and uh you reminded me and and the audience uh as far as
what that entails for the crypto asset class now Now, the big question in the room is,
is this just going to be a slight marginal high? Are we about to see the IWM blast into a 5% gap
up, man? But welcome, man. How are you? Thanks for joining me. Oh, Wabi, you never have to thank me
for joining you, brother. It is my pleasure. Happy to be here as always.
And I'm just happy that spaces are working today because yesterday was insane.
We had to restart the space.
And I know a lot of you in here listening couldn't hear anything and hopefully were able to catch the recording.
We had a great talk.
But, yeah, I'll kind of reiterate some of what I was opening with yesterday and then lots more new stuff to talk about, of course.
But it's a really, really interesting time to be in markets.
And I know a lot of people are feeling a bit frustrated with crypto right now.
And Bitcoin and, you know, Bitcoin's down in the low 90s, what, minus 25% roughly off the all-time high. And stocks are continuing to show strength day after day.
right? Like this is not, this is not typical. You know, what's more typical is once in a while,
there's kind of a lead and there's a lag where sometimes crypto will lead and sometimes stocks
will lead or lag or, you know, whatever combo. But ultimately, like they are, they are somewhat
positively correlated to each other sometimes with that lead and lag. But nonetheless, stocks
are strong. Usually crypto is strong as well and wabi you brought up
the russell 2000 today iwm etf right or rty1 exclamation point for the futures contract
now at new all-time highs as of today right and we always talk about this maybe we sound like a
broken record because we've been talking about it i I feel like, for like over a year, probably two years now.
But what's typically a precursor for crypto heating up in a big way is U.S. small caps going into price discovery or performing well.
well. And the Russell 2000, similarly to like altcoins and crypto, or we'll just even talk
about like ETH more specifically, like the king shit coin. You have small caps as a basket,
right? You could pull any individual out of there. Like you could call hood, you know,
you could call out hood and be like, oh, that's like a smaller-ish company. And it's,
it already went into price discovery, but I'm talking about like Hood and be like, oh, that's like a smaller-ish company. And it already went into price discovery.
But I'm talking about like the index, like the basket, right?
The Russell 2000 has been in a range effectively since like, you know, very early 2021.
Okay.
It's very end of 2025 right now.
So we've been in a range for U.S. small caps, not a bull market.
We've been in a giant range, kind of like
ETH, kind of like altcoins for over four years now. All right. So unless you've been heavily
concentrated in mega cap tech or like the 20 best performing blue chip stocks, you haven't really
experienced that raging bull market that I think a lot
of people, if you asked them without looking at a chart, would assume that stocks have
been in for years now.
And that actually hasn't really been the case.
It's really been more of a matter of if you've been mindlessly DCA-ing into the NASDAQ for
the NASDAQ for the past few years, you've really had some nice upside.
the past few years, you've really had some nice upside.
But if you've been in a well diversified, you know, small cap, mid cap, large cap portfolio
for equities, you haven't been in some like face, you know, face melting, you know, ripper,
you know, this whole time, like that hasn't been the case. But going back to what I was saying
before, there's a sequence of events that happens typically right
before crypto heats up. And it's something that we have yet to see so far, this quote unquote
cycle, right? And maybe the four year cycle is dead and maybe we're about to redefine what a
crypto cycle looks like in terms of duration, pullbacks along the way, performance, you know,
pullbacks along the way, performance, dilution, blah, blah, blah, all of it, right? Insert
descriptor right here. There's something that we see every single time, which is like
without fail, every cycle, even going back to when ETH was like $10 a coin.
What we see is stocks go into a bull market, but it's a very kind of like
stock picker type of bull market where it's not the rising tide that lifts all ships. It's
the blue chips rallying, which drag the NASDAQ up and drag the S&P up because of how they're
weighted. So heavily skewed towards a handful of names, right? Like I think right now the MAG-7 makes up like 30-ish percent
of the NASDAQ. I don't know the exact figure, but it's an outrageously high percentage.
So we see those big blue chip names perform the best right out of the gate. NASDAQ will make an
all-time high. Then the S&P 500 very shortly after makes an all-time high.
It has a very aggressive weighting and skew towards the MAG7 and some of these larger
blue-chip names, but not quite as aggressive as the Nasdaq.
So you'll see the Nasdaq go first, then the S&P 500, then shortly after US small caps
start to wake up and you see the Russell 2000 go into price discovery.
Then right after that, the fourth domino to fall is crypto starts ripping, following
in the path paved by U.S. small caps, right?
U.S. shitcos, not shitcoins, shitcos, companies, right, small companies, they go into price
discovery and they start ripping face.
And then further down the risk curve, it's crypto's turn.
So I look at the setup right now and I say somebody's lying to me right now.
Somebody's lying.
Who is it?
Are U.S. small caps lying?
Because they look like they're about to rip into price discovery, like imminently.
discovery, like imminently. Like it looks like 2026 is set up for an absolute ripper to the upside
for U.S. small caps. But something like ETH, you know, just dropped like 50 some percent
from its all time high. What gives, right? Like that's not typical of what we see, right? So
somebody's lying. Either U.S. small caps are kind of painting an illusion and are not actually as strong as the chart upon first glance would make them appear.
Or crypto is kind of a beach ball underwater.
And it's a bit confusing.
It's kind of like, you know, it's like a rubik's cube of of your mind it's it's
like you have to do kind of mental gymnastics to work through this all because there's always some
economic factor that is like in contraction there's always something um so like the doomers
and the bears will point out like a singular data point, maybe one
or two or three and be like, oh yeah, look at like, I think even this week there was
ADP numbers came out and was a miss, right?
Oh, look, the labor market is, you know, weakening, right?
We're doomed.
You know, people are losing their jobs, but then there's always something out there that
kind of contradicts it and paints a pretty good picture, right?
So, like, there's always something that's in contraction that can serve as a headline to justify why there's a pullback happening.
But generally, things are still pretty healthy, right?
Like, from what I watch, I'm not seeing, like, imminent global recession happening right now.
I'm not. Like, that's happening right now. I'm not.
That's not the picture that's being painted.
I look at crypto and I say, why do the structures look so weak right now?
Like, why does ETH look kind of mediocre?
Why does Bitcoin look heavy, you know, with so much supply above 100K?
You know, why did we have this monster drop, you know, 33%, 35% for Bitcoin from the all-time high?
But yet US small caps look like they're about to gap up like 30% over the next 90 days.
And that's actually typically what happens is like when US small caps as a basket
really catch momentum, they just kind of do this like vertical stairway to heaven pattern.
They just start ripping, especially when you come out of a four plus year accumulation.
So the Russell 2000 is like flirting with, you know, melting higher. But crypto still,
it still kind of has this overhang, right? So I go back to this question of like, who's lying,
right? Is crypto, you know crypto foretelling the imminent weakness in
equities, which also is not uncommon. If you go back and you look at previous cycles, Bitcoin will
top months before the US stock market as a whole. So that has happened. But also this time around,
we never saw US small caps catch a rotation, which is different about this cycle so far.
never saw US small caps catch a rotation, which is different about this cycle so far.
So either the Russell is lying and it's not actually going to give any follow through here.
And it's probably going to tuck back under the range high and continue chop solidating for,
you know, more years or crypto is going to kind of do the famous crypto come back from the dead
resurrection where it looks dead, everybody's
doomer on it, and then suddenly it starts ripping and everyone's like, what, what?
How is that possible?
How's it ripping?
Right.
And then, you know, they're forced to buy back in and, you know, chase it or whatever.
Crypto loves to do that to people, right?
It loves to look terrible, specifically Bitcoin and ETH love to look horrible and then kind
of resurrect themselves.
That's like the famous
crypto playbook. If for the past few years, whenever you just saw Bitcoin and ETH look
horrible, if you were like, you know what, I'm just going to buy that because I don't want to
buy it, you would have made billions. You know, you would have done well. Like that can be a
really effective strategy in crypto. It's just like when you look at the chart and you get sick
to your stomach, just buy.
Crypto loves to do that, right? It absolutely loves to do that. So I think you always have to
be a little bit careful being overly bearish on Bitcoin and ETH because they have a way of
punishing people that marry a bearish bias for too long. So either the Russell's lying
and it's going to correct back down and not follow
through here or crypto is due for a major catch up in the next quarter or so, right, which would
be great. And a lot of altcoins to me are looking like they're completely floored out. We talked
yesterday at length about the buoyancy of certain on-chain coins where there's just simply so much depth in these on-chain, you know, liquidity pools
that you're dealing with a 10 to 15% LP to market cap ratio.
So even a 1% or 2% holder of an on-chain coin doesn't have enough ammo to materially move the price down anymore.
So you're seeing these kind of like basing out structures, right,
which are maybe giving me some confidence that really we can have a miraculous recovery from these levels, right? Certainly using IWM as a
piece of confluence saying every cycle so far, it's been the same thing, whether ETH was at 10 bucks
or 1500, it doesn't matter. When IWM, Russell 2000 ETF goes into price discovery. Crypto follows shortly after, you know, 30, 60, 90 day lag, something like that.
Or I guess the elephant in the room that I don't really want to even entertain is that
something is systemically wrong with crypto.
And no matter what happens with stocks, we can't get off the floor.
That's always a possibility that we have to consider.
But I think it's probably more unlikely.
You know, I think there's a lot more risk in crypto.
I think there's a lot more under the surface that we don't really fully have a grasp on,
like what happened on October 10th, right? I think we kind of know what happened, but I don't think many people truly know like the full extent of what that was or why that happened.
I've seen a lot of good theories.
And it can, after an event like that, it can take quite a bit of time to recover.
But either the Russell's lying and it's going to recorrect back down and not follow through.
And as of right now,
it looks really good. Or crypto is going to come back and make a huge comeback from these levels where consensus is basically like it's over and everybody's been carted out. Or I guess the other
option is crypto is just completely cooked. But I don't know. I was talking at length yesterday about how, you know, I don't necessarily expect it to be super quick.
But I think you need to be slowly transitioning your bias towards there could be some serious and surprising upside in altcoins specifically over the next couple quarters.
I don't know exactly when, but I think certainly if IWM continues to push higher here and Bitcoin
can continue to base out and curl higher, we may see some action that a lot of people,
you know, a couple of weeks ago when Bitcoin was in
the low 80s, more or less ruled out as a possibility at all. So I'm starting to take
some stabs here to the long side. I've been updating people on that quite a bit. I've been
talking about it quite a bit in our Discord on our morning calls um i really think people could
be in for a surprise here to the upside so i still am cautiously optimistic but the highlight there
is like i'm optimistic leaning right because i think you need to properly contextualize where
where crypto is and kind of pin it to what equities are doing because
for years for multiple cycles i mean a decade plus worth of positive correlations they paint
this picture of crypto is the fourth domino to fall the nasdaq goes first then the s p then the
russell then crypto as people move further down the risk curve that's how it's always been
and you know in previous cycles i remember cycle, people talking about how that wasn't
that doesn't that doesn't matter. It was it was just more like, you know, condition based. It was
it was almost like random because TradFi guys are not bridging, you know, to crypto. They don't even
don't even have the ability to buy crypto. And it's like, OK, well, now what's the excuse?
have, you know, the ability to buy crypto. And it's like, OK, well, now what's the excuse?
We have all these ETFs that are available. You can even buy the Doge ETF, right? It's never been
easier for trillions of dollars of capital to suddenly enter crypto. I know trillions is a
crazy number, but truly, these institutions, they harness trillions of dollars of ammunition. That's not all going to flow into crypto, but like you would think some of it, right?
So I don't know.
I'm kind of like I've been yammering for a while here, but I do see a lot to be cautiously optimistic about, you know.
And I don't think all of the risk is behind us, you know, and I think there's some work to be done.
But I look at Bitcoin dominance and Bitcoin dominance looks still like it's trying to roll over slowly but surely.
And we know that all coins perform well when U.S. small caps perform well.
And I don't see the flashing, you know, red light of, you know, the, you know, the Doomer recession indicators, you know, going crazy right now,
not the stuff I look at or care about. So I'm not quite there where I'm like full bull,
you know, just start screaming and bull posting, you know, every 2% up candle on Bitcoin. But
I think it's, I think there's some pretty decent risk reward opportunities down here,
think it's i think there's some pretty decent risk reward opportunities down here specifically on
altcoins yeah we also have a far coin up over 20 on the day that was a ticker that uh we had
mentioned on the show yesterday and maybe it's a return to tradition right maybe far coin has its
crown as far as uh having some leading on chain some leading on chain uh stuff
that's about to happen right some potential breadth that's going to hit uh far coin is now up
125 130 percent from its low that it hit uh i think it was like a week or two ago actually like
like a week and a half ago.
And, you know, it's odd, Max.
Like when we talk about what asset class is lying, right?
If we just circle back to 2022, the S&P bottomed out before crypto.
I think the S&P bottomed out in October.
I think it was like mid or late October.
Then crypto didn't bottom out until Thanksgiving. And then people were like,
you know, discussing the apparently something bad was going to happen to chips in 2023, but
Biden saved the market by signing the Chips Act and all that stuff. And I remember like back in late 2022, early 2023, people were actively leaving the crypto space.
And they were saying that Coinbase is next because their junk bonds were yielding like 20%.
How Binance even might be running into some issues or something like that, or Michael Saylor as well.
might be running into some issues or something like that or Michael Saylor as well and I'd like
to think at this point that like crypto is the front runner for all markets and I think whoever
got card out in 10-10 I think that stuff is kind of done honestly it'd just be a matter now of like what what do equities do after the bank of japan the
boj raises rates on the 10th but i i think far coin is pretty much bottomed uh i think that
bottom was set at 17 cents um one of the few that actually went below its March 2025 lows. I just want to see some more action across the board, not just on Sol, but also some stuff on base.
And we'll see what stuff like ETH and Sol do.
And also Hyperliquid.
I'd want to see those get some good momentum.
Nasdaq Composite and Price Discovery and all that stuff.
I would say as far as sentiment it's pretty crushed right now sentiment is pretty dead and it's really like only a few select tickers that that that are in
bull market structures one of them being a VC which is honestly like a beast and
I hope there are more fair launches like
that I know KTA was also a fair launch one could even say hyper liquid was was
a fair launch as well I don't believe hyper liquid ever had a single VC
fundraise and I saw this on the timeline but like there were a few people that said to Jeff, they tagged them and they're like, we don't like your product.
And all Jeff said was, you're welcome to trade anywhere else.
Thank you for using Hyperliquid, which is honestly like a Chad move, in my opinion.
in my opinion. I think there's a trade to be made as far as the discrepancy in valuations
between Hyperliquid and Binance. How is it that almost every launch on Binance now is basically
down only if it doesn't come from their cabal? Those launches that launch on their own chain,
which is honestly pretty horrific to use use i'll pass it over to
prometheus now prometheus what's going on bro how are you what are your thoughts on uh on the
discussion yeah i think there's been uh a lot of great points that have been made to kind of the
topic about key day i the reason why i want to talk about Kida and then the trade itself is a lot of people don't realize like when I first called it out, you had the initial run up, which did like, I think like 6x, maybe 8x at most.
75 mil and then it went sideways for like months and months and months and i had to hold that bag
through the entirety of the april drawdown um and through the entirety of all that uncertainty and
so it just goes to show like just because you know there's turmoil within the markets. If you find a gem or you find a ticker that's worthwhile
that will stand out to you,
it doesn't mean you can't find quality projects
in the bear market.
I think that's kind of like a fallacy
that a lot of people have.
And arguably, too, it's a lot easier
to find quality projects when on-chain is less alive and more dead because they stand out that much more.
Now, granted, that means that there's going to be a lot more eyes on it, a lot quicker, but there's not as much noise on-chain because of that.
It's a lot easier to find those quality projects that kind of stand out like
a diamond in the rough um and then the markets right now man i'm just i'm being pretty patient
right i think um having some patience here is pretty pertinent i mean my high time frame bias
kind of remains the same in in regards to direction the lower time frame i have been telling the discord
that you know it makes sense to be kind of locally bullish here if you lose 90k it's not
you know it doesn't look the best but if we remain in the camp that you know if we remain in my
opinion below that below the poi at 108 as long as we remain underneath there i think you know there's
no question and people be like oh you know you get up to like 100k well you got to be bullish
i'm just like i mean i understand kind of the distribution on the higher time frames that have
you know been occurring and it's this bullish price action that we're seeing i think is just
a breath of fresh air for people
to grab onto a lot of like sweet nothings. Personally speaking, I was talking with Tommy
earlier and there, and just to Max's point as well, there are signs that liquidity is entering
back into the market. But if we look at, you know, crypto, then becomes a question,
okay, how reflexive is crypto going to be, right? That's the real question that you have to answer.
And if liquidity is just entering back into the market, does it go straight into crypto? Or are
we more so going to be expecting kind of the same old, same old, where you see NVIDIA and a lot of those AI names pop off.
And I think robotics, too, is going to be a huge talking point, especially over the next five to 10 years as that whole sector continues to grow and become more mature.
And, you know, the quality of the actual products becomes better.
becomes better. But do we see like newer names flourish? Because right now, if you, you know,
But do we see like newer names flourish?
you ask anybody like money managers and, you know, anybody who's, you know, managing any
significant amount of money and you ask them like, if you were to, if you had like cash right now,
would you buy crypto or would you buy like stocks and equities? And I mean, the majority of that
basket is probably going to answer you're going to be allocating into equities because there's
just been so it's been such less of a headache having to trade equities. They've been so much
more reliable. You haven't had, you know, these underlying issues where, you know, potentially,
these underlying issues where, you know, potentially, um, you know, the largest exchange
in, in the world is, is blowing up.
Um, and are they, you know, trying to become, become whole again, um, through, you know,
cheating, cheating some of their book.
Um, you know, that's a whole nother question. And it's just more so if you,
like I've been saying on the space of the past week, if you start to put in a structural low
at these levels, I will flip bullish and we're going to new highs. But until then,
like the lows that we have set in off of 82K, that is not significant by any means.
That is not significant by any means.
If you look at higher timeframe bottom on Bitcoin, we have never set a significant structural low in the manner in which we did at 82.
It generally takes time, and I've talked about the reason why it takes time as well.
as well. I do like a lot of equity names, surprisingly. I think that names such as,
I do like a lot of equity names, surprisingly.
I think some of the AI infra names are fantastic here. I think some,
if anybody wants a ticker PWR, I think that's a great stock and ticker to be allocated into.
be allocated into if you want exposure in your long-term portfolio, your retirement accounts,
If you want exposure in your long-term portfolio, your retirement accounts,
not financial advice, of course. But yeah, I mean, equities, in my opinion, are pretty,
you know, no brainer trade, unless you start to see the indices turn this into kind of
some form of complacency shoulder. But then again, the tops have been a significant process.
If you look at the April top, I think it took, or the top that we set at
the beginning of this year, it took like 100 days. If you look at the top that we set back in,
what was that, the beginning of 22, I think that took like almost 70 days. And we've been around
these prices now for, you know, coming up on about 50 days. So, you know, if bears aren't,
or bulls aren't unable to, you know, really push this thing higher going into year end and the beginning of year in 26, then I think the bears have a real opportunity.
I mean, the job market is significantly weak, you know, and people are talking about, you know, the Russell does look relatively strong here locally speaking.
Is that just a rotation and a rebalancing that we're seeing going into the end of the year?
You know, that's to, it's kind of to be determined from like an inflation,
from like an inflation adjusted perspective. If we look at the Russell, I mean, the Russell is like
down bad. And I just want to see some life kind of come to the markets outside of, you know,
the mag seven and the, you know, the, the same names that we've seen been running the
whole time.
I think we want to see liquidity come back in a meaningful way.
Um, the talks to, we've been talked on market check about the tariffs.
Like if they say the tariffs are unconstitutional and this entire bid has been based on the fact that income tax is, you know, going to be written off to zero or, you know,
somehow we're going to reduce our deficit or yada, yada, yada, yada. And they stop tariffs.
Oh my, I mean, it's, I mean, that's going to implode somebody that Snorlax and I listened to
quite diligently, uh, Chem, Kim Carson. um, he's talking, you know, he had
mentioned what happens if China invades Taiwan, uh, and it kind of seen, you know, he's been
mentioning, uh, the Taiwan allowing China to have Taiwan and us have allowing to have Venezuela
kind of thing. Each is, you know, has now full control over their, uh, their hemisphere. You
know, you're going to see NVIDIA. I mean, if NVIDIA, you know you're gonna see nvidia i mean if nvidia
you know and there's his prediction is nvidia would go down 50 to 75 percent if that happens
i mean i don't even want to know what would happen to the rest of the market
because this entire market has been propped up off the ai trade really since um really since the
fall of 23 so we'll see what happens man we'll see what happens, man. We'll see what happens.
Let me, let me ask you one question about the, um, the AI trade. So I think a lot of people
are skeptical of it in the sense of like, it's a bubble, right? It's a bubble. And
when I think of a bubble, I think more like the dot-com bubble specifically when we saw
cumulative forward pe of like 70 for the nasdaq at that time max let me answer your question you
don't even have to i i'm already i'm gonna answer your question right now. The bubble, you stand in the room and you enjoy the party.
And when the CapEx cycle slows and when MegaCapTech, when their free cash flow starts to compress in a meaningful way and the CapEx slows, that's when you jump out of the room.
But until then, I mean, enjoy the party.
I mean, enjoy the party.
You know, it's funny.
It kind of goes back to this concept of like, when people see a bubble, there are those
that say, it's a bubble, I'm not investing.
And then there are those other people that say, it's a bubble, I must invest, right?
So I think we can all look at, you know, AI as, you know, it's hot.
It's going to continue to be hot for a bit.
I still think there's plenty of meat on that bone.
But I'm kind of of the opinion personally where it's like, oh, it's a bubble.
I have to get in on it.
You know, like I know that one day there's going to be some big corrections,
but I don't really think anybody truly understands like what, not in the past couple decades,
like if you've only been investing for like five or 10 years and you haven't thoroughly done your
research on like historical bubbles, everybody just assumes that when prices go up for a while,
bubbles. Everybody just assumes that when prices go up for a while, you know, and things get
frothy that it's a bubble. But like a real bubble is like you are going to see the S&P 500 and the
NASDAQ trading at like cumulative, like index multiple of earnings of like 50 to 70, you know,
and I think right now it's somewhere around like 30, maybe,
maybe even under, I don't, I don't know exactly, but I don't think we're in that bubble territory
yet, at least not based on historical bubbles. You know, I still think we've got a lot of meat
on that bone because AI is progressing so quickly. And I don't even think we've seen like the full,
the true and full impact of it yet.
You know, like, I think it's going to transform the way business is done, even just how I do
business. I mean, the way that I do business right now is like 10 times more efficient than it was
when I started because Bitcoin three and a half years ago. Like, it is night and day.
And I feel like every single quarter that goes by,
it only becomes more dramatic, personally.
Yeah, they're like the, I mean, to your point,
the whole AI trade and mega cap and, you know,
the chase for more power, the chase for more compute,
the chase for, you know, more data to train the models. I mean, it's like a snake eating its own tail kind of thing.
And it's just going to be, you know, it's ever evolving. And to your point, I think that even though I am, you know, bearish on, you know, the crypto markets from, you know,
broader equity market perspective, one of my largest holdings is CleanSpark, right?
And I have a ton of exposure to it for a reason
because in my opinion,
they're positioned in a fantastic way
to capture some of that upside in the AI trade, right?
I think energy and infra is going to be
and will continue to be a huge play.
It's finite, you know, and because that just similar to how Bitcoin Maxis talk about the Bitcoin supply is finite and, you know, it's kind of, you know, like supply side.
I mean, it's very it's very similar.
Like you can only find so many sites.
many sites you can only find so much power to get access to and i i think if everybody wants a
You can only find so much power to get access to.
really simple indicator to watch for to know when the bubble is like quote-unquote popping or when
it's you know the trade is really slowing down it's just aggregate all the free cash flow of
all mega cap tech and when there's and when that starts to significantly compress or reduce in a
meaningful, meaningful way, um, versus their market cap, you just, you just get out. Right.
And it's, it's as simple as that because the thing is, is they have access to so much cash.
They have access to so much cheap capital. Um, and, for the past up until the AI trade,
what was the majority of that cash used for? It was just used for stock buybacks. That's what
the majority of, that's what they did the majority of the time. That was the dynamic that was
occurring, was there was just like a decade of buying stock back. That's all it
was. Like if you look at Apple, like record stock buybacks, it's the same thing. It's the exact same
thing. But we're shifting towards now a CapEx focus cycle for mega cap tech and a reinvestment
of that capital into actual, you know, services or products and growth rather than just like
booing stock price, right, and making shareholders happy. So yeah, we have a long way to go. Like the
chips themselves like last like three years. And I mean, some people say that you can like
depreciate them over like 12, which is just absolutely ridiculous. I mean, they cook those things. Generally speaking,
their half-life is like a year and a half with how hard they cook those chips. And then guess
what? They just have to go buy more. And guess what? There's going to be new models on the
market. And guess what? Those new models are going to be even more expensive. And guess what?
They're going to take up even more power. So like the trade is like self-perpetuating until it's, you know, until people kind of come a knocking. And what I mean by that is that free cash flow compresses versus the market cap.
shareholders go okay how are you monetizing this and that's probably going to be if they don't find
a way and probably the next like i don't know like three years uh to really solve that monetization
question then it's you know then you kind of get like the dot-com pop-esque style where it's like
nobody's actually making any money on this um but I mean, there's plenty of time, right?
There's like that you can continue to burn the candle down.
And there's quite a bit of time before you actually get to that point
before people actually have to like realize,
before people realize like,
hey, we're actually not making a whole lot of money
versus what we're spending.
So I think the AI trade is a national security issue now,
not speculative.
In late 22, early 23, if you guys remember, like, there was a gentleman, right,
whose sole phrase used to be NVDA is F'd, NVDA is F'd, NVDA is F'd.
is F and VDA is F and VDA is F and man is his name Michael the case I remember
that guy yeah what happened to him but I don't even talk about whatever he spent
a long time yeah yeah I think back then, like, NVIDIA was, like, just AI in general was, like, looked at as skeptical.
But I think AI started to become consensus, I would say, like, going into 2024.
That's when, like, things went into overdrive.
And if you guys remember in Q4, like, that later half half of q4 that's when iwm had its first
major wave of breadth and uh for the first time in a while and then like all that started to become
consensus and uh now you have jensen saying that trump is gonna save the ai industry and all that stuff if you guys remember earlier this year
there was like some huge fud in regards to uh ai infra when it came to things like deep seek
which tanked the market for a few weeks without now that's no longer the case but i'm sure there's
going to be some other scares along the way um now it's just a matter of like how do you price in the
along the way um now it's just a matter of like how do you price in the crypto ai trade which is
like what i've honestly been looking at over the last like year or so um i think it's something
within ethereum if i'm being honest i don't think it's no longer something on solana hopefully it's
something that people can speculate on for cycles to come and not just like something that trends when alts have some wave of breadth.
Maybe it's virtuals.
It did reach $6 billion on-chain, highest market cap token on base.
Maybe it's something like that.
Maybe it's something new.
Maybe it's like an AI L1, but there's always a trend between what happens in trad and also in crypto.
There's always something that goes on.
And now it's just a matter of being patient and wait and see mode.
Locally, the Bank of Japan raising rates rates that's just something that's just something that
that could get that could shake the market um having before why wouldn't it happen again but
i'm not positioned short i don't really like shorting to be honest and um you know the iwm is
hitting all-time highs now we just need to follow through with the Nasdaq composite and the S&P. Tesla also looks fantastic. I think Tesla is also a couple of points away
from going into price discovery. That was the darling baby of last cycle.
And that stock got insane momentum going into and out of the election. But if ADK was the bottom, and most importantly,
the low that followed with alts shortly after,
if that was the bottom, then happy days, right?
Happy days.
Maybe we do a whole lot of nothing for a couple of weeks
while on-chain goes crazy.
Maybe we'll see something like that.
I hope that's the case.
Because honestly, not doing anything in the market really, really sucks.
It kind of feels like August 2024, shortly after that crash.
I remember very, very clearly going on a call with Max and saying,
I feel like I've lost my edge.
I feel like I don't know what's about to happen right now.
And I find myself in a similar situation.
So I'd like to see on-chain volume come back in a big way.
But I see Tommy here in the audience.
Tommy, if you want to come up and yap, feel free to do so, man.
I sent you an invite to speak.
I also see Max's friend, Keck, here in the audience.
I'll send him an invite to speak.
I think silver hitting an all-time high earlier this week, I think that was at least a sign that risk isn't done yet.
Even though silver is in a completely different asset class than crypto, in my opinion.
I know there's a lot of people talking about ETH being in a similar fractal to AmazonPost.com, but in a much faster way.
I would view that as like the way altcoins have performed.
like the way all coins have performed.
If you look at the S&P right after the dot com, it did do quite well, but it didn't necessarily
roar into price discovery.
And I think that's what all coins did so far in this cycle, if you want to call it that.
We had the I think we've had a few cycles already.
We had the ETF cycle where we topped that at 48K.
And then we had the election cycle where we topped that at 108.
And then we had the first Trump pump, which was at 126.
And if you guys if you guys take a look at all those peaks, if you guys take a look at the altcoin flows they were totally totally totally
totally different the flows that ran us from 15k to 40 what was it 48k that was like the vc bubble
right we had injective celestia uh solana outperforming pretty much everything outside of Pepe.
And then from 48 to 108, we had meme coins going crazy,
dog with hat, all that stuff going absolutely crazy
and AI towards the tail end.
And now the cycle that we've had to 126,
we had things like Aster, Hyperliquid, PumpFun,
some on-chain tickers on Sol,
which is honestly just a benefactor of, what is it, a Rising Tide lifts all boats?
I always forget that, man.
And now it's like, all right, what's going to be the little theme this time?
Is it going to be PVE, like Q4 of 2023?
I certainly hope so.
The market definitely needs it.
It might sound like Cope, but I just want to make some money to the upside, man.
Tommy, what's up, man?
I mean, Sully, what's up, bro?
I see you here as speaker.
Man, it...
How are Chud Jacks, man?
Will Chud Jacks be blown out?
Is this the season of the Chud?
Crab mode?
Infinite crab?
If BOJ...
How about this, man man i'll throw it to
you like this if the boj raises rates and absolutely nothing happens will chud jack
celebrate is this the season of chud i uh i don't have any thoughts on the boj decision i know that's
uh isn't that in like a week and a half or something like that? I think it's around the quad witching.
So maybe we get some volatility around that week.
But I don't know, man.
I mean, it's like Chuds over a long enough period of time.
Chuds always seem to win.
I do think at some point there's going to be a time where like everybody is saying nothing ever happens and then you're just going to be having like a
a massive series of disasters all happening right on top of each other and like everything's going
to happen all at once right I kind of joked about this last time I was speaking but uh the nothing
ever happens virgin versus the everything happens at once Chad I don't I don't think that's about
to happen for the record but I do do think it almost kind of feels like
the logical conclusion to this bull run eventually
is going to be something like that, right?
Where Chud Jacks just get completely steamrolled
and everything happens all at once.
But no, I don't really think
that we're about to see that happen, though.
I will say, I mean, I've obviously been probably one of the most bearish people on all of crypto Twitter over the last like two or three months.
I've been expecting really a market crash.
And most of that was driven by kind of how I was viewing the VIX, Bitcoin. We were seeing liquidity recede from the market very quietly from really like early to mid-September into really the government shutdown ending.
And I think that's a really like important point that I need to bring up.
Since the government reopened, shockingly, shockingly, we're seeing liquidity come back into the market. And that's impacting not just like individual stocks,
because I think it's easy to say, you know, when somebody in the mag seven is pumping, right? It's
like, oh, it's just a hot ball of money sloshing back and forth, right? Like Nvidia pumps.
This is distribution. Now we're seeing that money flow into Google and that's just a sign of the Mag7 doing what
the Mag7 does.
But I think when you kind of see liquidity come into the market and affect volatility
markets, which has really been kind of my thing for the past few weeks, what I've been
harping on is like, okay, well, when you see liquidity hit this constraining point,
at least since like July of 2024, you know, you can visualize this through VIX futures.
When liquidity comes into the market, volatility gets crushed. When liquidity is leaving the
market, volatility rises. And I mean, I'm sure a lot of you guys have paid attention to the VIX
price action over the last two or three weeks, but I watched the VIX futures price action probably
even more closely than that. And, you know, we are now fine. We went from, we were in this like
sticky spot, I think the first half of November where there was, and I still think there is,
for the record, quite a bit of risk in the market. It's just a matter of, you know, is that risk going to kind of all converge at the same time?
Because that's what it takes for equities to dump.
But now you have liquidity coming back into the market in a way that is suppressing volatility again, right?
And you look at VIX futures now breaking the floor of a level that has been kind of like the constraint for the market for the last like
18 months. And I think that's potentially really massive, given the context, right?
Shocking, right? Like the level that has capped the market from a liquidity standpoint,
the yen carry blow up in q1 we're potentially
breaking through that level now uh you open the door for some pretty serious upside actually for
equity so i i am beginning to uh to actually get cautiously optimistic where i have been like super
bearish throughout this entire downtrend um and i think we are seeing the winds of change begin here, potentially. So I do think Bears still have kind of this window into the quad witching over the next two weeks where they can potentially still twist the knife.
But I think the context now looks significantly better than it has over the last few weeks.
weeks, just kind of going off of the same things that helped me kind of snag that local
top back in September and October for the market.
So, yeah, I'm actually getting cautiously optimistic here that the market is going to
move up into the end of the year.
I don't really know what that means for crypto and Bitcoin yet because we did see a much
larger structural pulldown. But at least from an
equity standpoint, the trade is pretty clear. The trade is pretty clear. You know, I think if you're
breaking out of this consolidation that we've been in since effectively like mid-September, right,
the same kind of time period that I just mentioned where liquidity was draining from the market,
now liquidity is entering the market are
we about to see the market potentially even about to start melting higher i i think that is a very
real possibility at this point i'm not like bullish on nvidia i kind of feel like it's going to be
somebody else in the mag 7 that's that's doing it maybe it's even just at like the index level
It's even just at like the index level.
But yeah, liquidity is finding its way into the market.
M2 is not just expanding.
Liquidity is finding its way into the market.
And that's a bullish shift in posture from the last two months that we've seen.
So I'm pretty interested to see how the next like two or three weeks go, quite frankly.
interested to see how the next like two or three weeks go, quite frankly. And if we do break higher
from this consolidation, I actually think the highest ROI play that you're going to want to
make, not financial advice, of course, ever, it's not going to have anything to do with a meme coin
or anything on chain. I actually think the highest ROI thing that you could be purchasing at like
deep out of the money call options on on like stock indexes
because upside volatility in stocks has remained suppressed for pretty much this entire cycle.
And if we do start to like really, really move up in stocks, I mean, those are going
to get juiced to infinity.
But yeah, that's that's it for me, though. Yeah, pretty interesting, I think,
development from the market now. Government reopened. Scott Bessent, I think, plays a big
role in this as well. There is liquidity now coming into the market. It is dampening volatility,
and that is inherently pushing stock prices higher. And that can continue, in my opinion.
I have consistently said I don't think this is going to be like 2022.
There are not really any similarities, in my opinion,
between Bitcoin and crypto and really equities to 2022.
Really, that entire cycle, I don't think that's going to be the case.
I feel like if we push high enough that everybody is calling for a shoulder it's
probably not going to be one um you know because i know there's so many people looking for bitcoin
to do what it did in 2022 where we had that three or four month shoulder before the capitulation and
i think if if we push high enough uh that shoulder is probably going to be bait in the same way that, you
know, when Bitcoin consolidated at like 92K, I think it was May, that was also total bait
before new highs.
So, yeah, I think the bearish window is maybe for another two weeks.
But realistically, when we're kind of looking ahead, we're seeing some pretty big signs,
when we're kind of looking ahead.
We're seeing some pretty big signs, I think,
like these edge proxies that the market is shifting back
to where the risk is to the upside.
So are people getting phone calls, Tommy?
Man, I will say...
People might be getting phone calls.
God, dude.
I don't have any comment to make about those people.
But, yeah, I mean, the people who told you to buy at $115K
are going to be victory lapping if we go higher.
Like, that's just a reality.
I'll just have to ignore them, right?
That's all you really can do.
Sully, so what you're saying is perhaps a lot of us
are just going to be poor for a week instead of a whole year.
Is that it?
What do you mean by that?
So like in 2022, that was like a full bear, right?
But then the crash that we had,
the poorness only lasted a couple of weeks before uh upside yeah i uh i don't think
that we're gonna have like crypto cyclicality is probably dead in the sense that you know if we do
go higher from here everybody will call for the death of the four-year cycle and yes you will
probably see like incredible price appreciation but i I do think if that is going to happen, the resulting bear market is it's going to be devastating, man.
Like the longer we put it off, the worse it's going to be.
It is coming. Risks are there.
They don't have to materialize right now, but they will at some point.
So I would say, you know, if we are potentially going to melt up, you better make your money in the next year, two years,
because, I don't know, there might not be another cycle after that.
Who knows?
Sully, I'm scared, man.
Not another cycle?
Are you talking like post.com type stuff
where it's like we do nothing for a couple of years
and then everything sends out once after?
I think it'd be longer, honestly, than the dot-com bubble.
Probably a lot longer.
But I also think that if that is going to be the case,
you're going to go a lot higher from here before that happens uh a lot higher like i was reading a lot of michael burry's comments today
i don't really agree with them uh i yeah i don't really agree with him i do agree to some extent
like that the next bear market will be long but i don't think that we're going to have a long bear market from here.
I think it would more be from much higher prices,
and it would be much longer than people expect.
And then silence fell into the room.
Louie, what's up, bro?
How are you?
I saw you in the audience.
Thought I might send you an invite.
Hey, what's up, guys? I don't know how I sound here. I don't have my normal mic. Do I sound all right?
Yeah, it sounds great, man. Spaces are actually working today.
And I'm actually glad to see, like, at least some people come in because yesterday was...
Yesterday, I don't know what was going on with this app.
So what's going on?
What do you want to know?
You invited me up here.
Yeah.
I mean, how are you feeling with, with, with the, with the Russell hitting new all time?
Yeah.
I mean, it's just a Fugazi, you know, I've been talking about the Russell for like a
year now.
It's faked us out so much to the point where Russell for like a year now. It's faked us out.
So much to the point where it sounds like a potato chip.
The Russell, the Russells, Ruffles.
That's why it sounds like a potato chip.
I'm going to name my next son Russell, I think.
But it's a lot of mixed signals out there in the markets, I will say.
We're talking about it on Market Check today. That's
our live stream on YouTube. We do four days a week. Check us out. But it's been a rough couple
months in crypto, trying to take a step back, gather some information, get a full idea and
grasp on the market. It's been tough it's been a little tough here very
weird mixed signals going on it looks like you have like uh indices like the the like the s&p
the nasdaq slowing down a bit uh not showing like any true signs of being but definitely slowing down like the the curve is unsteepening you could say
you have bitcoin down 50 60 off the high you have all coins doing the same thing they've
been doing for two years just getting crushed but yet today you know we have the russell ripping
back to the upside the only kind of thing i could I could attribute to that is seeing some of these high
cap stocks, like the NVIDIAs, like the Amazons, we're seeing some air get let out of those.
The only thing I could really point to is a possible capital flow rotation, right? Where
a lot of people thinking the AI trade may be, maybe a little overblown.
Um, and instead of what most people would expect is, is an AI bubble popping and then
the whole market crashing.
It seems as if people are selling out of those stocks, um, and looking elsewhere, right.
And then just putting money elsewhere.
And we're, we're seeing that with the, you know, stuff like the Russell, um, trying to go into price discovery. So,
I mean, I don't know, let me take a check at the,
look at the chart real quick.
Cause we've been fooled several times before with the Russell, you know,
I was getting really excited about the Russell, uh,
like just a month ago,
looking like it was trading into price discovery. Um,
it faked us out um so we're not
exactly at all time highs yet but looking really really strong here um i'll say this because i am
expecting stuff like the s&p to cool off maybe see a drop some of these hot bigger stocks take a drop
but i mean if we see the russell really start to push into price discovery, I am way, way more open to playing some crypto again because I am cautious in crypto, right?
So I do have some exposure.
I do have some cash.
And I've kind of just been waiting and seeing.
I'm waiting for another drop that I think is coming.
I think Bitcoin has a little lower.
I think altcoins have a little lower.
Not much.
I mean, altcoins are pretty much sitting on the floor at this point.
They really don't have much room to the downside.
But I've been kind of just waiting for that shoe to drop in equities.
We've seen Bitcoin and altcoins lead equities to the downside in the past by a couple months.
We're kind of coming on that month or two past bitcoin's uh start of its downside so i am have been waiting for that
shoe to drop in the equity market but the russell kind of has me confused now it's like our equity
is going to drop if they do is it's all going to rotate into low cap stock and script and crypto
is going to pump anyways i don't know i wish i an answer. I'm a little confused with what I'm seeing.
I'm sure we're going to get some answers
moving into the next couple of weeks.
I totally agree with Tommy.
I'm in the same camp as him
where I really do think there's only
maybe a one to two week window
going into the end of this year
that they can drop equities.
And if they don't,
I think it's going to melt up.
Just like he's saying,
me and him are pretty much in the same camp with that. So, I mean, if equities don And if they don't, I think it's going to melt up just like he's saying, me and him are
pretty much in the same camp with that. So, I mean, if equities don't roll over in the next
couple of weeks, I think it's a green light for low cap stocks and crypto to really finally have
their time to shine. But obviously, just cautious as we've been fooled before. But maybe that's the scam.
Maybe we're also cautious to the point where now it's time to really go.
I think usually like after the first half of December, usually markets don't really do much at all.
do much at all um people just tend to to go off into the distance and enjoy enjoy some time off
joe do you have some answers man i agree with you it's time to to fade all doomers mr joe uncle joe
how are you man doing well i can't talk really i feel like my voice is getting deeper. Yeah, it is. As you mature.
So it is getting deeper. Yeah, much more masculine these days.
Yeah, thanks, man.
I've been doing a lot of hang cleans, hang power cleans at the gym.
A lot more squats.
Much heavier weight in the gym instead of doing a bunch of reps.
I've been pushing the weight in the gym.
I've also been eating eggs.
I'm now up to five eggs a day.
And good Lord, man, I honestly think that the word terrorism would be rewritten in the dictionary.
If anyone is in the same room, if I pass gas. Don't try or you might get done with.
Yes, dude.
Yes.
Don't try and get by or you'll get dealt with and trapped.
We also pulled off the orange juice joke earlier in the stream.
Max said something about concentration.
And, man, I had to hold back so much after I heard that word.
But anyways, man, are you feeling about this move on the IWM?
I feel great. It's awesome.
Are we finally going to get that move to, like, 300, man, or is this just another little marginal?
No, I mean, I think we're early cycle here here small caps tend to run at the beginning of the cycle um historically there's
been like 14 out of 13 examples where if the small caps broke break out um you're you're you tend to
they tend to run for several more quarters so very very optimistic about stocks and equities here and
i think a lot of the crypto bros are just confused because
crypto sucks. It's just a trash asset in large respects. So if people woke up and people
disparagingly talk about retail arriving, well, I don't think retail is coming. I think
they've moved on. I think they're in quantum. I think they're in AI stocks, they're in options, they're in tradify markets and they're not interested in buying bags of
garbage. And why, why, why?
Hey Joe, do you think, do you think a lot of these guys moved over?
And I thought about this theory earlier in the week with the rise of like
prediction markets and sports, everything you can gamble on everything,
you know, it's like, it's like, you know, people are bemoaning like it reminds me of people complaining about vegas right like oh vegas
isn't getting much traction well because you can bet from home there's a million new ways to put
your gambling and leverage on you know you can you can you can play with those things why am i
going to buy like random dog coin number five or five or random garbage when I can just go lever up in a lot of other areas?
And to me, the reason why people are befuddled is they think that, and I tweeted this out this morning, people think that positive liquidity environments means your asset of choice is just going to rock higher.
higher. That's not correct. Even in very strong liquidity-positive growth-oriented markets,
That's not correct.
there are some sectors and assets that don't go anywhere. And people are anchored to this 2021
mindset where like, oh, everything just turbo pumps. Well, that was an exception to the rule.
That's like a unique set of circumstances. It's not like every three years that's going to repeat verbatim. And the reality is like the new assets of choice, you know, your gold stocks and your gold, you know,
those assets are pumping. There's other, you know, stocks that are in tradified markets that are
pumping. I think Russell is going to run very hard here. You know, even some of the mega caps,
like I'm, I don't know who was speaking previously, but I'm very optimistic on mega caps.
I mean, I bought, I was in this space and you know this, Bobby, like I was kind of making fun because somebody was shorting Tesla.
I bought the dip on Tesla.
It's 15% higher in like two weeks.
This is an unbelievable bull market.
And the problem is you got a bunch of people owning trash and then they're mad because they're owning trash.
Well, if you're going to buy trash, you should expect trash returns.
You're going to buy quality.
You know, I guess I can go through the names, but like the equity market's on fire.
Like there's tons of ways to make money if you don't buy trash.
Hey, Joe, what are some call options, man?
Hey, Joe, what are some call options, man?
Unless you have a net worth that's massive, you have no business buying call options.
I mean, most of the time, if you want to make money with options, you should be selling options.
You should be selling cash.
Here's a great, great way.
For somebody out here who wants to grow their account in a reasonable way, not financial advice,
sell cash-secured puts on a name that you want to buy.
You sell cash-secured puts.
If the stock goes down, you can buy it for a decent value if the doomers are right and
everything rolls over.
If you don't, you collect that premium.
If you don't, you collect that premium.
Bank.
Bank, take it to the bank.
Take it to the bank.
I just don't understand why people are frustrated with this market.
To me, what's that?
No, I was going to inquire about this whole ink tax debacle.
Income tax?
I'm saying that he might set them to zero.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. He wants set them to zero. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
He wants income taxes at zero.
Good luck. How's he going to get
through the Congress?
Any ideas?
Honestly,
maybe strong arming his way through it.
Strong arming, like an arm wrestling contest
with John Thune? Yes, yes, dude.
Yeah, he's a pretty large man.
Do you think he would win an arm wrestling contest with John Thune? Yes, dude. Yeah, he's a pretty large man. Do you think he would win an arm wrestling contest with John Thune?
No, I think Basant would be the person.
Oh, really?
You think he could power down?
Yeah, yeah.
Or Tom, what was it?
The guy from the border, Tom Hammond, whatever his name is,
like the new border, Cesar.
I don't know if I'm pronouncing that name correctly.
In the old days, they used to settle disputes through dueling.
We can't do that anymore because that's not.
Wasn't Roosevelt that guy?
Like there was.
No, Aaron Burr, Alexander Hamilton.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
Like he answered a challenge to someone, wasn't it?
I mean, here's the thing.
In the Civilized Age, we should replace duels with either arm wrestling.
I think arm wrestling would be cool.
Or maybe, you know, maybe like a cool, like a, maybe like we could settle it on Call of Duty.
You know, like whoever can defeat the other in a Call of duty matchup yeah yeah i mean something interesting did you know obama allegedly
when he was president he benched past 185 for a couple of reps um and if we look back
i think obama was like probably the most physically strongest. Maybe. Not a chance.
Not even a chance.
Do you not know your history?
Do you not know Teddy?
All right.
Over the last five decades.
The Bear?
The strongest president was.
Theodore Roosevelt.
Over the last 50 years.
50 years.
Why are we cutting it off arbitrarily?
What's that?
Wasn't he a boxer?
Yeah.
Theodore Roosevelt took a bullet in the chest and got up and finished the speech
And you're talking about Obama
What are you talking about, Wab?
Every time I come to these
I'm getting frustrated now
Take a break
Why are you limiting the last 50 years?
History didn't begin in 1961
I'll say it's Roosevelt Ivelt i i do agree it's
roosevelt he he was the guy theodore um not the theodore you know teddy yeah because because
with all due respect to fdr he was in a wheelchair
yeah teddy teddy teddy would be the guy i also heard l Lincoln was pretty strong as well. Oh, yeah, the rail splitter.
That was his name, the rail splitter.
You know what I'm doing?
I'm a big Lincoln buff.
I've probably read 10 books on Lincoln.
I love Lincoln.
Yeah, he was strong enough to hold like a 50-pound axe in front of him.
50-pound axe?
That's not that heavy at all.
50-pound axe?
Who can't?
I mean, even Don Bacon holds a 50 pound axe hey joe do you no no
no like like like like in front of them like you know what what a front raise is like just having
a 50 pound axe and front raising it and maintaining that position for a while what does this have to
do with financial markets wabi joe joe do you remember the greatest commercial ever involving the duel of Alexander
Hamilton and Burr? Yes. Yes, I remember it. There's a whole there's a whole musical about
it called Hamilton. What was the commercial? No, no. What was the commercial? A commercial?
They didn't have commercials back then. There was no TV even yet. What are you talking about?
No, no, dude. You don't remember the milk commercial where the dude's eating the sandwich
and the radio show says,
you know, who shot Alexander Hamilton?
And he tries to...
I thought you would remember that one for sure.
He tries to answer the question in the radio show,
but he doesn't have milk.
And it was a got milk commercial.
I mean, I don't know what you're talking about, but
have you seen the musical Hamilton?
Are you serious? You haven't seen Hamilton?
Robbie, have you seen Hamilton?
Yeah, some other people might call it locking, though.
What?
What are you...
What are you talking about?
Hamilton.
No, that's not Hamilton.
It's another play.
Are you talking about Hamlet?
Hamlet's by Shakespeare.
I'm talking about Lin-Manuel Miranda's wonderful work,
Hamilton the musical.
You have not seen this at all?
Am I the only one?
Am I that old?
No, the only musical I've seen is Wicked.
No, no, no.
No, listen.
The entire story of Hamlet, which you should all check out, by Lin-Manuel Miranda, the musical,
he tells the story of Alexander Hamlet's life, and he does it through a rap battle.
The entire story.
So it's like a giant rap battle, the entire entire musical.
You haven't heard?
I can't believe people haven't heard of this.
I can't believe you don't remember the Milk commercial.
I'm going to clip it, post it to this chat, and then come back.
well uh is there anything that you guys want to yap as far as the markets well I would just say
I just say it's a very very uh exciting time like I'm I'm very bold up here I'm pretty excited about
the Nasdaq and the S&P and and uh the the uh small cap spreaded rip uh i think it's great i think there's clop
there's a ton of like deep fear and doubt it's baked in the cake here um and i'm pretty pretty
positive i mean i think that you're gonna get a nice rally here is it joe is it really exciting
because the last 20 minutes i've been listening pretty boring except for the music on Hamilton is awesome.
If you guys have not heard that song, who made that?
Do you remember that?
Yeah, Lin-Manuel Miranda.
It's been...
Fucking music is off the charts.
It's off the charts.
You'll actually learn something about history by listening to
Alexander Hamilton was a badass.
Fucking moving commodities when he was 16, man.
Fucking swinging commodities on an offshore island when he was 15 or 16, Joe.
It's a great story.
You think he was a good guy?
I think human beings are both good and bad.
There are no pure...
You know, that's the right answer, Joe, actually.
I know. good and bad there are no no pure you know that's the right answer jeff actually i know but but well
uh would well let me ask you this and based on would you would you work for him yes welcome him
into your home yes leave the door open yes yeah, that says a lot. I think that his story.
Would you do that? Hey, by the way, would you do that with Biden?
Probably not. No. It's always tough because, like, you know, here's the thing.
You say Biden and. Well, I just try. I pick the first creature that came.
I understand. But like if the president of the United States called me up on the phone and says, for the good of the country, I need your assistance.
I would think long. Oh, no, that's yes.
I agree with you, sir. I mean, he's the general. Yeah, I don't.
I believe in I believe in the office.
OK, when I when I became a lawyer, I took an oath to defend the Constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic.
him, a lawyer took an oath to defend the Constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic.
Okay.
And when the President of the United States, regardless of what man or woman occupies the
office, asked for my assistance, I would be willing to provide it.
Probably.
Probably.
Now, this is what I hear you saying.
Irrespective of your thought, you know, what you thought of the man or woman, you would show up for a meeting.
My next question would be then he tells you, one, you don't like him.
He's not, you know, he's completely opposed to your particular ethics, whether that has any value or not.
It does.
You going in and not like him.
Yeah.
Okay.
Okay.
Yeah.
Just for the audience, not just it does yeah okay okay yeah just for the audience not just you but so and he and he
asked you to do something you know is wrong absolutely not okay what if it's what if it's
a president you super super admire and and he's like dude this is for the greater good well that
that's always the question like it's so you like cat. It's so hard to talk about these things in the abstract because if he wanted me to go, like, for example, like if he wanted me to go sell a narrative that I think was immoral or wrong, I would question it and I would belabor it.
And I would, you know, the problem with public policy is that we get into these conversations all the time about, you know, the ends justifies the means.
Like it's a moral question, right?
If you knew that there was something that was immoral in a certain sense,
but it had a greater purpose, you know, does the ends justify the means?
And that's difficult.
You can't talk about that in a vacuum.
It's way too specific, and you have to look at the actual particulars of that
situation. So I couldn't answer that. I would say that I would have an inclination. My bias would be
to support the United States of America. That would be my bias.
Yeah. Well, hey, listen, I heard you talking about
how some of the market's really doing well.
What part is that?
What have I missed?
Well, small caps are about to break out to a new all-time high.
Yeah.
And, you know, so here's the thing.
Somebody who's like, well, why are small caps rallying?
It's very simple.
Okay.
The small caps are rallying because they're the most interest rate sensitive companies.
And as you've gotten some deteriorating economic data, including ticking up ever their balance sheets and their net cash accruals through lower interest rate environments.
So they're ripping because the idea is help is on the way in the form of lower interest rates.
So I expect that to continue.
I don't think it's just.
Joe, when you look at the mid caps, like what kind of names are you thinking?
Well, I was just referring to the broad indices.
But like the Russell, you know, the Russell.
Oh, and you simply trade it as an index.
You don't go pick up a mid-cap.
But there are small caps that are absolutely ripping.
I mean, there's one I was looking at today.
Let me pull it up.
It was up like 19% today.
See, I was hoping you were going to tell me some of the minor.
Well, I mean, look at some of the small cap, which cap which is by the way this is what i was trying to get to
joe i wasn't being a dick is hey that's small cap man right i mean the miners are small cap
yeah well i mean so they've been rallying but they've got crushed over the last couple
months yeah but they've been rallying the last uh couple weeks for sure so um just just for
the record here guys they that seems the miners seem to lead the the moves of bitcoin it's not
they do i've noticed they they did yeah they did yes yes they were for sure yeah i suspect i'm we're
gonna see that again so just just just to give you an example here of one that i think you're in still
which i added on recently um i need my b yeah bm bm and r just to just to just for the record here
since the 21st of september not that long ago guys bm and r is up 50 percent
50 50 50 percent since the 21st of december uh november excuse me so you haven't even had to wait a month
and now granted it was in a brutal downtrend uh for a while here but it's it's back to you know
that that's a nice pop here it's got a lot of volume going higher and if you add it on this
move higher i mean i think this thing's going back to 60. That's my view. I mean, Tesla is another one.
That's fine relying on ETH, though.
ETH needs to recover for BM&R to do that.
Well, yeah, well, that's fine.
ETH is going to recover.
It's a mega cap, and it's going to do well, as is Bitcoin.
I mean, I think Bitcoin is going to recover as well.
So, I mean, that's my bias, okay?
Like, you can tell me you're wrong.
But to me, I think you saw all the conditions for a complete washout.
The people that were bearish in this space and others at like 80K, I don't know what you're smoking.
Like, I mean, you had like all the indications of a complete flush.
Now, does that mean that altcoin number 22 is going to rally?
No, I don't think that it's going to rally.
But I think the megas, majors rather, as you guys call them, they're going to rally.
So, yeah, I mean, I'm pretty optimistic here.
I don't see why that's – I don't see any signs of a terrible bear market coming.
You're going to print roughly 4% GDP growth for Q4.
You're going to have policymakers in an election year.
I mean, Besson came out and told you today.
He said the economy is going to be roaring in an election year. I mean, Besson came out and told you today, said the economy is going to be roaring in 2026. If you don't think that he's pulling levers to
try to make sure that happens, you know, I don't know what to tell you. But the problem is that
you got a lot of people that are loaded up on junk. And again, like you can do whatever you
want with your money. I'm not going to try and convince you otherwise, but the amount of people buying complete garbage, it befuddles me, Gary.
Are you ever befuddled by that?
Because I'm befuddled by it.
Gary Cardone?
He dropped off man maybe people are ruffled joe not befuddled but ruffled because of russell ruffled russell um end of year price targets joe? Well, I don't really move my price targets.
I'm not like one of these guys that moves it.
So I kept my target all year of 130.
I had that in January.
I'm going to keep that target.
I'll just say objectively, it looks like it will not hit.
We got to 126.
My guess is, and this is just gun to my head right now,
I think you get back up into the 100s by the end of the year, and you probably take out the all-time high sometime in early Q1, you know, January, February, etc.
That's my belief.
But, you know, I really got to tell you, I'm upset you've never seen Hamilton.
You've got to get on that.
It's a great, great work of art that you
should enjoy i i did see that one movie that you recommended um the poker player who's in college
has a girlfriend and all that stuff and he wants to be great they break up the story of hamilton uh
it really is remarkable, okay?
You write out the box, like in the music, which the music is banger, it is.
It asks an important question.
You know, it starts off saying, how does a bastard, orphan, son of a whore, and a Scotsman
dropped in the middle of a forgotten spot in the Caribbean by providence, impoverished
and squalor, grow up to be a hero and a scholar. The $10 founding father without a father got a lot farther by working a lot harder,
by being a lot smarter, by being a self-starter.
By 14 years old, they placed him in charge of a trading charter.
And like, is it nonstop like that?
Like, it's basically a hip hop rap through his whole life.
Something to be a part of the struggle. Spending defense, deal, borrow, or barter. hip-hop rap through his whole life. And he wrote his first refrain, a testament to his name The word got around and said his kid is insane, man
You're gonna be a collection just to send him to your claim, man
Get your education, don't forget from that you came
And the world's gonna know your name, what's your name, man?
Alexander Hamilton
My name is Alexander Hamilton
And there's a million things I haven't done Alexander Hamilton, my name is Alexander Hamilton.
There's a million things I haven't done, just wait, just wait.
He was Ted's father's kid, full of it, dead, written two years later.
Alex and his mother bed, written, left dead, sitting in their own sick, the set thing. And Alex got better by his mother, wait, quack.
Moving with a cousin, a cousin committed suicide.
Left him with a thunder-rooted bride,
some balloons started, boy, saying,
Alex, you gotta think for yourself.
He started retreating and beating every tree that's on the shelf.
And if there'd been nothing left to do for someone less astute, he would have been destitute without a central restitution.
He started working, packing for his late mother's landlord.
He's trading sugar, catering all the things he paid up on.
He's scum and all every fucking kid.
He's on the land for the future.
See him now with his hands on the bell. Okay. Can you. Can you. Can you. Just.
Just.
You.
Just.
You.
Just.
You.
You.
Just.
You.
Just.
You.
Just.
You.
Just.
You.
Just.
You.
Just.
You.
Just. You. You. you can be a new man in New York, just you!
Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Hamilton, are waiting in the wings, are you waiting in the
wings? If you never back down, you never learn to take your time!
Oh, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Hamilton, America sings for you.
Smoking hot.
Yeah, it's awesome.
It's awesome.
I mean, a fucking unbelievable clip of music.
He made a whole album, didn't he?
And then they have cabinet battles.
They have rap battles.
You can play cabinet battle one.
It's literally, play that cabinet if you can pull that in.
Cabinet battle one.
It's literally a battle between Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton.
Can you play that?
Can somebody fire that?
I can fire that up.
Just listen to that.
You'll be hooked.
Cabinet battle one.
What year was this movie?
It's not a movie yeah cabinet battle one play that
i'm looking for our dog i'm looking for let's see here's my shot
uh wow why didn't it hear what did you call it again yeah it's called cabinet battle one
the cabinet battle one that's the this is the name of the song. Cabinet Battle 1.
You can't see that?
I'm bringing it.
I'll bring it, bro.
Cabinet 1.
Battle 1.
Shit.
I mean, listen to this kid.
I mean, the one he's got.
I'm playing right now.
Battle 1, bro.
Here we go.
Here.
I guarantee it's going to be hot.
Yes.
Here we go. I guarantee it's going to be hot. Here we go.
Can't hear it.
Yeah, I can't hear it either.
Oh, no. You missed it.
Cabin Battle 1.
Yeah.
Did we lose Gary? I'm not anybody here.
I would assume so
I don't have him muted
he's not muted on my end
yeah you gotta check it out
I don't know where he went
it was too bad
Cabin Battle 1 is like 30 seconds long
it's not long but it's awesome
I'll check it out
and then I'll give my feedback
on tomorrow's show
thanks for coming up Joe
I gotta get back here to something if Gary can't play this
Where did he go?
Yeah
I don't know, maybe he got a phone call or something
It still shows as a speaker to me
But thanks for coming up guys
Stay safe
Gary
Max, Louis, Louie, Tommy.
Thanks, guys, so much for tuning in.
Same for you guys in the audience.
Feel free to give us a follow.
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